20* Ravens/Steelers Side & Total Parlay on Pittsburgh -3/UNDER 45

Reasons for Steelers:

Getting the Steelers as only 3-point home favorites over the Ravens with the way they are playing right now is quite the steal from the oddsmakers. They have gone a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really earn their way into the playoffs. All four of their wins came by a touchdown or more, and all four were against fellow playoff contenders as well.

It started with back-to-back impressive road wins at Cincinnati (42-21) and at Atlanta (27-20). Then, the Steelers returned home and topped Kansas City 20-12 in a game that ultimately cost the Chiefs a shot at the playoffs. They wound up beating the Bengals 27-17 at home in Week 17 to finish it off. That win was very impressive because it was for the division title, and the Bengals wanted revenge after losing by 21 to the Steelers in the first meeting.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Steelers are an elite team. They rank 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 57.7 yards per game. Only the Seahawks, Broncos and Colts have been better, so the Steelers are obviously in some very good company.

The biggest difference for this team in 2014 is that their offense has been unstoppable. The Steelers are putting up 27.2 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 410.2 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.1% of his passes for 4,952 yards with 32 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. Antonio Brown may be the best receiver in the game. He has 129 receptions for 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns.

I just don’t trust the Ravens in this game with the way they have been playing coming in. They seemed a cinch to go 3-0 over their final three games, which came against Jacksonville, Houston and Cleveland. Instead, they struggled against all three, going 2-1 but 0-3 ATS. They only beat Jacksonville 20-12 at home as 14-point favorites, lost at Houston 13-25 as 5-point favorites, and only beat Cleveland 20-10 as 14-point favorites. They trailed for most of the game against the Browns and their third-string QB in Week 17.

Home-field advantage has been huge between these teams over the last two seasons. The home team has won each of the last four meetings during this span. That includes blowout wins for the home teams this season as the Ravens won 26-6 on September 11th, while the Steelers returned the favor with a 43-23 home win on November 2nd.

The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 January games. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Steelers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games. Baltimore is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. AFC North opponents.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Pittsburgh.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Heavy rain is expected for this game between the Steelers and Ravens.  The forecast is calling for 100 percent chance of rain, and the most significant rainfall is expected to come right before kickoff.  I loved this under even on a perfect day, but the conditions make it an even stronger selection.

Heinz Field has been ranked as the worst grass field in the NFL in the two most recent player surveys.  A big reason for that is the fact that the stadium gets a lot of action as the University of Pittsburgh plays there.  Also, high school playoff games are played at Heinz Field.  The grass field tends to get torn up and often must be resodded.  Here's a quote from wide receiver Torrey Smith about it.

"It's terrible. They need to go ahead and put some turf up there or something," Smith said Thursday. "Apparently the field gets a lot of use. That's good for them as a business, but it's terrible for us playing this late. I'm sure they'll do a great job prepping it."

Perhaps the bigger reason to love the UNDER is the low-scoring nature of this series.  Indeed, 14 of the last 16 meetings between the Steelers and Ravens have seen less than 45 combined points.  The only two exceptions should have been lower-scoring games than they were.  

They combined for 66 points in 2014 in a game where the Ravens had 332 total yards and the Steelers had 376.  They also combined for 55 points in 2011 in a game where the Ravens had 126 total yards and the Steelers had 263.  The Steelers and Ravens have combined for an average of 38.6 points per game in their last 16 meetings.

Both defenses get back arguably their two most important players for this game as well.  Nose tackle Haloti Ngata returns from his four-game suspension from PED use.  Safety Troy Polamalu returns from a two-game absence due to a knee injury.  These are two of the better stop units in the NFL as well.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - excellent passing team (at least 7.3 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 27-5 (84.4%) since 1983.  Bet the Steelers -3 and the UNDER 45 Saturday.

20* Ravens/Steelers Side & Total Parlay on Pittsburgh -3/UNDER 45

Reasons for Steelers:

Getting the Steelers as only 3-point home favorites over the Ravens with the way they are playing right now is quite the steal from the oddsmakers. They have gone a perfect 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall to really earn their way into the playoffs. All four of their wins came by a touchdown or more, and all four were against fellow playoff contenders as well.

It started with back-to-back impressive road wins at Cincinnati (42-21) and at Atlanta (27-20). Then, the Steelers returned home and topped Kansas City 20-12 in a game that ultimately cost the Chiefs a shot at the playoffs. They wound up beating the Bengals 27-17 at home in Week 17 to finish it off. That win was very impressive because it was for the division title, and the Bengals wanted revenge after losing by 21 to the Steelers in the first meeting.

When you look at the numbers, it’s easy to see that the Steelers are an elite team. They rank 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 57.7 yards per game. Only the Seahawks, Broncos and Colts have been better, so the Steelers are obviously in some very good company.

The biggest difference for this team in 2014 is that their offense has been unstoppable. The Steelers are putting up 27.2 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 410.2 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.1% of his passes for 4,952 yards with 32 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. Antonio Brown may be the best receiver in the game. He has 129 receptions for 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns.

I just don’t trust the Ravens in this game with the way they have been playing coming in. They seemed a cinch to go 3-0 over their final three games, which came against Jacksonville, Houston and Cleveland. Instead, they struggled against all three, going 2-1 but 0-3 ATS. They only beat Jacksonville 20-12 at home as 14-point favorites, lost at Houston 13-25 as 5-point favorites, and only beat Cleveland 20-10 as 14-point favorites. They trailed for most of the game against the Browns and their third-string QB in Week 17.

Home-field advantage has been huge between these teams over the last two seasons. The home team has won each of the last four meetings during this span. That includes blowout wins for the home teams this season as the Ravens won 26-6 on September 11th, while the Steelers returned the favor with a 43-23 home win on November 2nd.

The Steelers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 January games. The Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Steelers are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Steelers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in its last six home playoff games. Baltimore is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. AFC North opponents.  These last three trends combine for a perfect 17-0 system backing Pittsburgh.

Reasons for the UNDER:

Heavy rain is expected for this game between the Steelers and Ravens.  The forecast is calling for 100 percent chance of rain, and the most significant rainfall is expected to come right before kickoff.  I loved this under even on a perfect day, but the conditions make it an even stronger selection.

Heinz Field has been ranked as the worst grass field in the NFL in the two most recent player surveys.  A big reason for that is the fact that the stadium gets a lot of action as the University of Pittsburgh plays there.  Also, high school playoff games are played at Heinz Field.  The grass field tends to get torn up and often must be resodded.  Here's a quote from wide receiver Torrey Smith about it.

"It's terrible. They need to go ahead and put some turf up there or something," Smith said Thursday. "Apparently the field gets a lot of use. That's good for them as a business, but it's terrible for us playing this late. I'm sure they'll do a great job prepping it."

Perhaps the bigger reason to love the UNDER is the low-scoring nature of this series.  Indeed, 14 of the last 16 meetings between the Steelers and Ravens have seen less than 45 combined points.  The only two exceptions should have been lower-scoring games than they were.  

They combined for 66 points in 2014 in a game where the Ravens had 332 total yards and the Steelers had 376.  They also combined for 55 points in 2011 in a game where the Ravens had 126 total yards and the Steelers had 263.  The Steelers and Ravens have combined for an average of 38.6 points per game in their last 16 meetings.

Both defenses get back arguably their two most important players for this game as well.  Nose tackle Haloti Ngata returns from his four-game suspension from PED use.  Safety Troy Polamalu returns from a two-game absence due to a knee injury.  These are two of the better stop units in the NFL as well.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (PITTSBURGH) - excellent passing team (at least 7.3 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 27-5 (84.4%) since 1983.  Bet the Steelers -3 and the UNDER 45 Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves Money Line -105

The Minnesota Timberwolves are highly motivated to put an end to their 10-game losing streak tonight as they host the Utah Jazz.  They have been really close to ending this streak here of late, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall that includes a 4-point loss to Denver, a 6-point loss to Utah and a 3-point loss to Sacramento.

That makes this a revenge game for the Timberwolves, who lost 94-100 at Utah as 7-point underdogs on December 30th.  Playing the Jazz less than a week later, the Timberwolves are simply going to want this game more.  I look for them to put an end to their losing streak with a home victory Saturday night.

This is a very tough spot for Utah.  It fought back from a huge deficit against Atlanta last night, only to lose by a final of 92-98 as 4.5-point home underdogs.  Now, these tired Jazz are going to have a tough time matching the energy level of the young Timberwolves, especially considering they just beat them less than a week ago.

The Jazz are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  Minnesota is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Western Conference foes.  The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with Minnesota.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami (Florida) +8

The Miami Hurricanes are one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15 under veteran head coach Jim Larranaga.  They are off to a 10-3 start that has included wins over Florida, Charlotte (twice) and Illinois among others.

I believe the Hurricanes coming into their ACC opener with Virginia undervalued because they let their guard down here of late.  They have lost three of their last five games, but were able to get back on track with a 67-40 beat down of College of Charleston as 13.5-point favorites last time out.  Look for them to build off of that performance at home here.

Virginia enters the ACC opener overvalued due to its perfect 12-0 start that has earned it the No. 3 ranking in the country.  Obviously, with an unbeaten start and a No. 3 ranking come expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers.  These expectations are just very tough to live up to with the Cavaliers laying eight points on the road to Miami.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings.  In fact, Virginia is 0-6 all-time at Miami having never won there.  While the Cavaliers may end that trend, they're not going to do so in blowout fashion.  Bet Miami Saturday.

15* ECU/Florida Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on East Carolina +7

The East Carolina Pirates are chomping at the bit at an opportunity to play a team from the SEC in the Birmingham Bowl and to prove that they are the real deal, just as they have against a few other Power 5 conference teams throughout the regular season. The Gators, meanwhile, are not happy to be here as they had much higher expectations coming into the year.

Due to underachieving for a second consecutive season, Florida head coach Will Muschamp was fired. The interim head coach will be defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, who will also be out of a job at season’s end. That’s because new head coach Jim McElwain has already hired Mississippi State’s Geoff Collins to replace Durkin as defensive coordinator next season. So, the Gators are really in a state of limbo here, and I don’t expect them to show up with the kind of focus it’s going to take to put away ECU by more than a touchdown.

The Gators face an East Carolina offense that can put up points in bunches. The Pirates rank 5th in the FBS with 532.8 yards per game and tied for 14th with an average of 37.2 points. Their passing game was second with 367.3 yards per game. They didn’t just put up these numbers against weak competition, either.

In three consecutive matchups against Power 5 conference programs South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina, ECU averaged 581.3 yards and 40.3 points. It lost 33-23 at then-No. 21 South Carolina before a 28-21 win at then-No. 17 Virginia Tech and a 70-41 home blowout of North Carolina. Florida suffered a 23-20 overtime home loss to South Carolina on November 15 for the team’s only common opponent.

Shane Carden may be the most underrated quarterback in the entire country. He is completing 65.0% of his passes for 4,309 yards with 28 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, while also rushing for six scores on the season. The Pirates have three very good receivers in Justin Hardy (110 receptions, 1,334 yards, 9 TD), Cam Worthy (47, 886, 3 TD) and Isaiah Jones (75, 766, 5 TD) for Carden to get the ball to. Breon Allen (869 yards, 6.5/carry) and Chris Hairston (455 yards, 7.3/carry) are explosive in the running game as well.

Yes, the Gators have one of the better defenses in the country, but their offense is the reason why they aren’t going to put away the Pirates by a touchdown or more. Florida failed to crack 300 yards in five of 11 games this season. It ranked 11th in the SEC in total offense (370.2 yards/game), and its 12th-ranked passing attack (180.7 yards/game) never built any momentum in league play.

A big reason why the Pirates are outscoring teams by 11.5 points per game and outgaining them by a whopping 163 yards per game this season is because they have actually been respectable defensively as well. They are giving up just 25.7 points per game and 369.7 yards per game this season. They did play the easier schedule than Florida, but what they did against those three Power 5 teams shows that they can play with anyone.

East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last two seasons, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five. The Pirates are 9-1 ATS after one or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three years. They are coming back to win by an average of 18.3 points per game in this spot. ECU is also 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss. The Gators are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Take East Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl.

20* Raptors/Warriors Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -4.5

This is a matchup between the top team from the Eastern Conference in the Toronto Raptors (24-8) against the top team from the Western Conference in the Golden State Warriors (25-5).  I'll gladly side with the top team from the West at home as only 4.5-point favorites in this matchup.

Toronto would not be anywhere close to first place if it played in the stacked West.  What the Warriors have done up to this point is very impressive given that they have played the much tougher schedule.  To go 25-5 is no small feat in the West.

I was able to fade the Warriors with some success following their 16-game winning streak as they were overvalued.  However, after going just 2-2 straight up and 1-3 ATS in their last four games, the Warriors are back to being undervalued here tonight as only 4.5-point home favorites.

The Raptors, on the other hand, are overvalued after winning eight of their last 10 games overall coming in.  Well, they are a tired team right now because they are in the midst of a 6-game road trip.  This is Game No. 5 of the trip that has seen them lose at Chicago 120-129 and at Portland 97-102.

Golden State is 12-1 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by a whopping 14.7 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five of the last six meetings.  The Warriors are 9-0 in their last nine home meetings with the Raptors dating back to 2004 with all nine wins coming by 6 points or more.  Roll with the Warriors Friday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC +17.5

USC came into this season undervalued after going just 2-16 in Pac-12 play in Jamie Enfield's first season on the job last year.  Remember, Enfield took Florida Gulf Coast to the Sweet 16 two years ago, and he has a very talented freshman class leading the way at USC in 2014-15 as he's starting to get his players in place.

The Trojans are off to a respectable 8-4 start this season entering conference play while going 7-5 ATS in the process.  Three of their four losses have come by 12 points or less as they have only been beaten by more than 17.5 points one time, which is the spread for this game against Utah.

What really stood out to me about USC's 12 games up to this point is that it they have actually played their best two games in their only two true road games.  The Trojans beat New Mexico 66-54 as 9-point road underdogs, and they also beat Boston College 75-71 as 7-point road dogs.  That's a great sign heading into this game.

Utah is a team I had circled as undervalued coming into 2014-15.  It barely missed the NCAA Tournament last year and lost a lot of close games.  Well, it clearly has been undervalued up to this point as it has gone 10-2 straight up and 8-3 against the spread.

However, I believe it's now time to fade the Utes as they are overvalued entering conference play after this fast start.  They are also currently the No. 10 ranked team in the country, and with a Top 10 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that they simply cannot live up to.

Utah did beat USC 84-66 at home and 79-71 on the road last year.  That 18-point home win is a little concerning, but not when you consider that there's no question the Trojans are vastly improved over a year ago.  Utah is also slightly improved, but not as much as the Trojans are, so they should be able to stay within 17.5 this time around.

Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (UTAH) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (allowing less than 40%), dominant rebounding team (at least plus-6 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.

USC is 7-0 ATS versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game over the last two seasons.  It is actually beating these teams by an average of 7.4 points per game.  Utah does play at a very slow pace, which works in our favor here as it will be tough for the Utes to win by 18 or more because of it.  Also, the Utes are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 15.5 to 18 points.  Take USC Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +4.5

At 23-8 on the season and in second place in the Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks are obviously off to a very surprising start this year.  However, with that start comes expectations from oddsmakers that the Hawks simply cannot live up to.  They have no business laying 4.5 points on the road to a Western Conference opponent as the Hawks would just be a mediocre team if they were playing in the West.

The Utah Jazz (11-21) got off to a horrible start this season, but I really like the way they are playing coming into this one.  They have gone 5-2 straight up in their last seven games overall, and one of their losses was a 4-point loss at the LA Clippers as 12-point underdogs.

The five wins have been very impressive.  They went into Miami and won 105-87 as 3.5-point dogs, won at Orlando 101-94 as 4-point dogs, won at Memphis 97-91 as 8-point dogs, beat the 76ers 88-71 at home as 10-point favorites, and beat the Timberwolves 100-94 at home as 7-point favorites.  The Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, yet they continue to get no respect from oddsmakers.

The Jazz are going to be out for revenge on the Hawks considering they have lost seven straight in this series.  Their last two losses have come by a combined 5 points, too.  That includes a 97-100 road loss in their first meeting of 2014-15 as 7-point underdogs back on November 12th.

Atlanta is 8-27 ATS in its last 35 games when playing on two days' rest.  Utah is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 home games after four straight games where it outrebounded its opponent by 5 or more boards.  The Jazz are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record.  Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Bet the Jazz Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic +1.5

The Brooklyn Nets come into this game overvalued as road favorites over the Orlando Magic.  Brooklyn (15-16) is getting a lot of love from the betting public and the oddsmakers after winning five of its last six games overall while going 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

A closer look at this stretch shows that the Nets have beaten some very suspect competition.  Four of their wins came against Detroit (by 5), Denver (by 6), and Sacramento (by 8) at home, as well as Boston (by 2) on the road.  Yes, the Nets did beat the Bulls on the road by 14 last time out, but the Bulls were playing a second of a back-to-back and were tired.  The Nets are now in a letdown spot after that big win as well.

The Magic are just 13-22 this season, but they have gone a profitable 19-16 ATS because they have lost so many close games this year.  They are starting to turn some of those close losses into wins here of late, and I really believe this team will be a profitable one to back going forward.

Orlando has won three of its last five games overall.  It beat Boston at home while going on the road and topping both Charlotte and Miami for its three victories during this stretch.  I also believe the Magic are undervalued due to their 23-point loss to the red-hot Pistons last time out, which the betting public is putting too much stock in.  The Magic were playing their 4th game in 5 days and had nothing left in the tank.  With two days off since that loss, they'll come back fresh and ready to go tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between Brooklyn and Orlando.  Indeed, the home team has won each of the last six meetings.  Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Brooklyn.  Take the Magic Friday.

20* Iowa/Tennessee TaxSlayer Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -3.5

The Tennessee Volunteers (6-6) are extremely excited to be playing in this bowl game after going 5-7 each of the last three years and missing out. This will be their first bowl game since 2010, and they’ll be looking for their first win in a bowl since 2007. There’s no question that the Vols are going to be highly motivated because of it, and I look for them to get that elusive bowl win over Iowa this year.

Not many teams could benefit from bowl practice as much as this Tennessee squad. Head coach Butch Jones has put together two of the top recruiting classes in the country in his two years here, and this is still a very young team. In fact, the Vols had to break in five new starters along the offensive line, and four new starters along the defensive line this year. They did a tremendous job of getting to a bowl game with all of this youth.

What makes this bowl berth even more impressive is the fact that Tennessee played one of the most difficult schedules in the country. Just playing in the SEC makes the schedule tough, but the Vols also had to play three more bowl teams out of conference. They beat Utah State 38-7 and Arkansas State 34-19, but lost at Oklahoma 10-34. They also drew two of the best teams from the SEC West in Alabama and Ole Miss.

To no surprise, this young Tennessee team got better as the season went on. In fact, it was sitting at 3-5 needing three wins in its final four games to get to a bowl, and that’s precisely what it did. The Vols beat South Carolina 45-42 on the road, Kentucky 50-16 at home, and Vanderbilt 24-17 on the road in the season finale to get in. Their only loss during this stretch came by a final of 21-29 to SEC East champ Missouri.

The Vols averaged 35 points per game over their final four games of the season. Their offense really took off once Joshua Dobbs took over for Justin Worley at quarterback with five games to go. He even played well in a 20-34 home loss to Alabama, and then proceeded to step up his game the rest of the way. Dobbs finished the season completing 61.5% of his passes for 1,077 yards with eight touchdowns and five interceptions, while also rushing for 393 yards and six scores in just five games. It’s his dual-threat ability that has really helped out this offense.

Tennessee has also been very good on the other side of the football. It is giving up just 23.9 points, 359.9 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 30.1 points, 400 yards per game and 5.8 per play. So, the Vols are holding their opponents to 6.2 points, 40 yards and 0.6 yards per play less than they average on the season. This is the sign of a really good defense and one that will be able to limit a weak Iowa offense.

The Hawkeyes had a schedule that was set up to make a run at the Big Ten West division title this season. They avoided Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan from the Big Ten East, and they got to play both Maryland and Indiana from that division. They also got to host fellow West contenders Wisconsin, Nebraska and Northwestern. Well, they managed to go just 4-4 within the Big Ten despite playing such a soft schedule.

Iowa went 1-4 against bowl teams this season, while Tennessee went 3-6 against bowl teams, which just shows you how much more difficult of a schedule the Volunteers played this year. Iowa lost to Nebraska (34-37) and Wisconsin (24-26) at home, while also falling at Minnesota (14-51) and at Maryland (31-38) on the road. Its only win over a bowl team was a 24-20 win at Pittsburgh. Tennessee’s six losses to bowl teams came against Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, Ole Miss, Alabama and Missouri. The Vols lost three of those six games by a combined 12 points.

Tennessee is 41-24 ATS in its last 65 road games off one or more consecutive ATS losses. The Vols are 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games off two more more consecutive ATS losses. The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Bet Tennessee in the TaxSlayer Bowl Friday.

15* Ohio State/Alabama New Year's Day BAILOUT on Alabama -8.5

Alabama went through a gauntlet of a schedule this season to win the SEC in what is easily the best conference in the country. As a result, it is certainly battle-tested, and I would argue that it has played three to four teams this year that are better than Ohio State. Meanwhile, this will be by far the toughest test the Buckeyes have faced all season.

I personally do not believe the Buckeyes are one of the best four teams in the country. They simply benefited from playing a cake schedule, and Vegas seems to agree. There were 10 teams from the Big Ten that made bowl games this year, and all 10 of them are underdogs. That just goes to show you what Vegas thinks of the Big Ten this year. Ohio State may have won the conference, but that’s nothing compared to Alabama winning the SEC.

What has impressed me about Alabama the most this year is that it has had one of its best offenses in school history. It averages 37.1 points and 488.4 yards per game this season. Freshman Blake Sims has played like a seasoned veteran. He is completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 3,236 yards with 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 294 yards and six scores.

If you look past Ohio State’s win over Wisconsin, you find that its defense was not playing well at all in the four games previous. It had given up at least 24 points in four straight games, and an average of 28.3 points per game during this stretch. It has given up 24 or more points a whopping eight times this year in 13 games. There’s no question the Crimson Tide are going to have their way with this Ohio State defense.

I would argue that Alabama has the best defense in the country when you factor in strength of schedule. It ranks 4th in the country in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game while ranking 11th in total defense at 312.1 yards per game. It is 2nd against the run at 88.4 yards per game and 2.8 per carry allowed. Alabama’s ability to stop the run is going to be the biggest reason as to why it wins and covers.

Ohio State relies very heavily on its rushing attack as it runs the ball 45 times per game for 261 yards compared to 27 pass attempts per game. It has to be an even more run-heavy team now that J.T. Barrett is out for this bowl game with an injury. Yes, backup Cardale Jones played well against Wisconsin, but he had the element of surprise with the Badgers. The Crimson Tide now have game tape on him and will certainly know what to expect. Jones won’t be nearly as effective against the best defense Ohio State has faced all season.

The Buckeyes are 1-8 ATS after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons. Alabama is 33-17 ATS in its last 50 road games following three or more consecutive wins. The Crimson Tide are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Alabama is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 neutral site games. The Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten foes. Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Roll with Alabama in the Sugar Bowl Thursday.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida State +8

There are many that believe the Florida State Seminoles (13-0) are not one of the best four teams in the country. They have won so many close games this season, seven by six points or less in fact, so their argument does have some weight. However, this team has played a much tougher schedule than they did a year ago, and I’m not so sure that this team isn’t as good as the one that won the national title last year.

There is something to be said for a team that just finds a way to win games. Florida State has now won a whopping 29 straight games dating back over the past three seasons. Now, the Seminoles find themselves in the role of the underdog for the first time in the last two years. They are getting no respect from the books in this game, and Jimbo Fisher will be using this as serious motivation for his players. While they may ultimately have their winning streak come to an end against the Ducks, I don’t believe it will be by 9 points or more, which is what it would take for Oregon to cover this ridiculous 8-point spread.

Oregon comes in way overvalued due to not only winning eight straight games, but also covering the spread in eight straight. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to back the Ducks. This has forced oddsmakers to set the line for this game higher than it should be. It’s usually a wise move to fade the public, and that’s precisely what I’ll recommend doing in this game Thursday.

Florida State, on the other hand, actually comes in undervalued despite its perfect 13-0 record this year. That’s because it has gone just 3-10 ATS in all games. It simply created expectations for itself after winning the national title that it could not live up to this year. The Seminoles have been favored in every game they have played this year, and most of the time by too many points. That’s why there has been so much value in going against them up to this point. That fade value is now all gone, and it’s time to jump back on them.

The Seminoles boast an elite offense that puts up 34.8 points, 434.8 yards and 6.4 yards per play against opponents that allow just 25.3 points, 360 yards and 5.3 per play. So, they are scoring 10 points per game and averaging 75 yards per game more than their opponents allow on the season. Jameis Winston just finds a way to get it done when the game is in the balance, and my money is on him to do so on the biggest of stages again in this one.

Oregon has put up some gaudy numbers offensively this year. However, you have to factor in who they have played before you get too excited about this offense. They have played defenses that allow 31.7 points and 432 yards per game on the season. That is a much softer slate than what the Seminoles have been up against this year. I would only give the Ducks a slight edge on offense.

Defensively, the edge has to go to the Seminoles, who are giving up 23.0 points and 378.3 yards per game. Oregon allows 413.8 yards per game this season as its stop unit simply has not been that good. I believe one of the biggest reasons the Seminoles have a chance to win this game is their run defense, which only allows 3.9 yards per carry. Unlike most other teams the Ducks face, the Seminoles actually have the athleticism and speed defensively to match up with Oregon’s offense.

Florida State is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 games after failing to cover the spread in four of its last five games coming in. The Seminoles are 37-21 ATS in their last 58 games following two or more consecutive ATS losses. Florida State is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 bowl games. It has won six straight bowl games coming in and has not lost a bowl game by double-digits since 2003.  Bet Florida State in the Rose Bowl Thursday.

20* Wisconsin/Auburn Outback Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Auburn -6.5

I was one of the biggest Auburn haters coming into the season that you will find. They were extremely fortunate to win the SEC and make it to the national title game last year as they won a ridiculous amount of close games along the way and got every break to go in their favor. Their season win total was set at 9.5 and it was one of my favorite ‘under’ bets coming into the year.

I wasn’t so sure I was going to cash that bet until the Tigers lost three of their final four games to close out the season. It was also very profitable to fade this team all year against the spread as they wound up with just a 4-8 ATS record. So, my instinct was correct on them being overvalued this season. However, I now am reversing roles and looking to back them as they are undervalued coming into the bowl game.

Indeed, Auburn has failed to cover the spread in four straight and six of their last seven. They have burned the betting public time and time again, and now the public wants nothing to do with them. When this happens, you can find a lot of value in backing these teams, and I believe that to be the case in this game. There’s no way Auburn should be laying less than a touchdown to Wisconsin.

For starters, the Tigers play in the toughest division in the country in the SEC West. Had they played in any other division in America, they would have probably won that division. There are no easy outs in the SEC West, and Auburn found that out the hard way, losing four games to Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama.

I actually faded Auburn in the Alabama game thinking that the Tigers were going to get rolled. While the Crimson Tide did end up covering in an 11-point home win as 10-point favorites, I never felt like they deserved to cover as they trailed for most of the game. Auburn actually racked up 630 total yards on that Alabama defense, outgaining the Crimson Tide by 91 total yards in the game. It was that performance that makes me know that the Tigers are still a very good team and one of the best in the country.

Wisconsin beat up on a very easy schedule this season coming from the Big Ten, which is the worst of the Power 5 conferences. It managed to avoid BOTH Ohio State and Michigan State from the other division, and that fact alone made it the favorites to win its division. It wasn’t easy as the Badgers had to beat Minnesota 34-24 at home in the season finale to get into the championship game.

It was in that championship game that the Badgers’ true colors showed. They were outplayed in every phase of the game by Ohio State, losing that game 59-0 while getting outgained by 300 total yards. The Badgers managed just 258 yards and gave up 558 yards. I believe that Auburn is a better team than Ohio State, and while I don’t expect the Tigers to win this game by 59, I do expect them to win by a touchdown or more with relative ease.

Auburn was very good on both sides of the football this year. It put up 35.8 points, 489.6 yards per game and 6.7 per play against teams that only gave up 23.5 points, 371 yards per game and 5.3 per play. The Tigers gave up 26.1 points, 389.2 yards per game and 5.6 per play against teams that averaged 31.4 points, 417 yards per game and 5.9 per play.

Conversely, Wisconsin’s numbers look good on paper, but when you factor in the strength of opponents played, they no longer look that great. They played one of the easiest schedules in the country with their 10 wins coming against the likes of Western Illinois, Bowling Green, South Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota. Not one of those teams is near the caliber of two of the three teams they lost to in LSU and Ohio State.  It also lost to Northwestern 14-20.

Auburn is 9-1 ATS after scoring 42 or more points in its last game over the last two seasons. It is coming back to win by an average of 15.5 points per game in this spot. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing 7.25 or more yards per play in their last game. They are winning by 14.1 points per game in this spot. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games. The Badgers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss by more than 20 points. Wisconsin is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  Take Auburn in the Outback Bowl Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -8

The Oklahoma City Thunder get back Kevin Durant tonight from a six-game absence due to an ankle injury.  He practiced fully Monday and Tuesday and head coach Scott Brooks said he looked "lively" in practice and is ready to go.

Oklahoma City will be highly motivated for a win tonight considering, at 15-17, it is looking up at Phoenix (18-15) for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  I look for the Thunder to roll the Suns tonight, especially given the tough situation that Phoenix is in.

The Suns will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after losing to the Pelicans 106-110 last night.  Meanwhile, the Thunder come in well-rested and ready to go as they've had two days off since last playing on Sunday.  They will bring more energy to this game in front of a raucous home crowd that is anticipating Durant's return.

I also believe the Suns are overvalued right now due to going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  I faded them with success last night by backing the Pelicans, and I'll be fading them again tonight.  Their six wins during this stretch came against Charlotte, New York, Washington, Dallas, Sacramento and the LA Lakers, so they have been beating up on some soft competition to say the least.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won four straight.  The Suns have lost 12 of their last 14 meetings with the Thunder.  The Thunder have won seven straight home meetings with the Suns by 24, 7, 31, 18, 11, 10 and 4 points.  That's an average margin of victory of 16.8 points per game in their last eight home meetings with Phoenix.  Bet the Thunder Wednesday.

20* GA Tech/Mississippi State New Year's Eve No-Brainer on Mississippi State -6.5

I would be willing to argue that the Mississippi State Bulldogs (10-2) are one of the top four teams in the country. Obviously, with two losses, they weren’t going to get into the four-team playoff over conference champions with one or fewer losses. However, finishing in second place in the toughest division in the country is no small feat. The Bulldogs had their chances to make the playoff after a 9-0 start, but they lost two of their final three games of the season.

I believe losing two of their final three games has the Bulldogs actually undervalued coming into this game. The betting public has simply forgotten about them. But when you look at those losses, you find that they are not bad at all. They only lost 20-25 at Alabama as 10-point underdogs, and 17-31 at Ole Miss as 2.5-point favorites. They actually outgained the Crimson Tide by 93 yards on the road, so that there shows that they can play with what everyone perceives as the best team in the country. Had either of those games against Alabama and Ole Miss been played in Starkville, they likely would have been different outcomes.

Mississippi State went 5-2 against bowl teams this season. It beat LSU (34-29) and South Alabama (35-3) on the road, while also topping Texas A&M (38-23), Auburn (38-23) and Arkansas (17-10) at home. This was obviously one of the most difficult schedules in the entire country, and I’d have to say that the Bulldogs handled themselves pretty well. They are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this game because it seems like the national media has simply forgotten about them.

Georgia Tech, on the other hand, comes into this game way overvalued. It has gone 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, which has the betting public jumping on the bandwagon. It beat Georgia 30-24 on the road in the final week of the regular season. Well, the Bulldogs were deflated coming into that game after falling short of making the SEC Championship Game with Missouri’s win over Arkansas in the season finale. They also only lost 35-37 to Florida State after scoring a touchdown with only seconds remaining to make that score appear closer than it really was.

Mississippi State’s offense was nothing short of elite this season. It put up 37.2 points, 506.2 yards per game and 6.6 per play to rank 9th in the country in total offense. Its opposing defenses only gave up 27.4 points, 398 yards per game and 5.8 per play this season. So, it outscored its opposing defenses’ season averages by 10 points per game, and outgained them by 108 yards per game. Georgia Tech’s defense allows 6.2 yards per play against teams that average 5.8 yards per play.

However, the reason I really love this matchup for the Bulldogs is their defense. They struggled against the pass this season, but they were elite against the run. The Bulldogs only allow 126 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry against teams that average 178 yards per game and 4.4 per carry. They give up 285 passing yards per game, but that’s not going to come into play here because Georgia Tech only averages 135 passing yards per game.

Plus, the Yellow Jackets are expected to be without leading receiver DeAndre Smelter (35 receptions, 715 yards, 7 TD), who accounted for roughly half of their receiving totals on the year. They average 334 rushing yards per game this season in their tripe-option. Well, give the Bulldogs over a month to prepare for it, and their dominant run defense will be up to the task.

Bowl games are a huge disadvantage for triple-option teams. Georgia Tech lost to another SEC team in Ole Miss 17-25 in the Music City Bowl last year. They were held to 298 total yards and gave up 477 yards in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate as they were outgained by 179 yards in the loss. They only mustered 151 rushing yards on 49 carries for an average of 3.1 per carry against the Rebels last year.

The ACC has not shown very well in bowl games this postseason.  They are 3-5 in bowl games with their only wins coming from VA Tech over Cincinnati, NC State over UCF, and Clemson over Oklahoma.  Both Cincinnati and UCF play in the weak AAC, while Oklahoma did not show up against Clemson.  

What stands out to me is that the ACC is 0-2 against SEC teams as Miami lost to South Carolina 21-24, while Louisville was blown out by Georgia 37-14 last night.  Also, the SEC has been dominant in bowl games this year, going 4-1 up to this points.  This conference is just on another level than the rest, and that will be apparent in this game as well.

Dan Mullen is 11-3 ATS versus excellent rushing teams that average at least 5.25 yards per carry as the coach of Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Mississippi State is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.

Georgia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. SEC opponents. The Yellow Jackets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven bowl games.  This trend just goes to show how much they struggle in bowl games because they run a triple-option, which is so easy to prepare for when you have extra time.  Bet Mississippi State in the Orange Bowl Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Penn State +19

The Penn State Nittany Lions are showing excellent value today as 19-point underdogs to the Wisconsin Badgers in their Big Ten opener.  They are one of the most improved teams in the country this season and just aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers today.

Penn State is a legitimate NCAA tournament contender with four starters back from last year and it's 12-1 start.  It's only loss came in overtime to a very good Charlotte team by a final of 97-106 earlier this season.  It has reeled off 10 straight wins since.

Wisconsin is way overvalued here due to its 12-1 start and its No. 4 national ranking.  The Badgers are certainly one of the better teams in the country, but the Big Ten is overrated as a whole, and the Badgers are considered the best team in the conference.

Wisconsin hasn't exactly blown out the opposition this year when facing quality teams such as Penn State.  It is 3-1 against the likes of Georgetown (68-65), Oklahoma (69-56), Duke (70-80) and California (68-56), not beating any of those teams by more than 13 points.

What I really love about this play as well is the fact that the Nittany Lions will be the more prepared team.  They last played on December 22nd in a 69-49 home win over Dartmouth, so they have had over a week to get ready for Wisconsin.  The Badgers last played on December 28th in a 68-56 home win over Buffalo, so they have only had two days to prepare for Penn State.

Penn State has played Wisconsin very tough in recent meetings.  In fact, each of the last nine meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less.  As a result, Penn State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine meetings with Wisconsin since 2010.  Take Penn State Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1.5

The New Orleans Pelicans (15-15) are staring up at the Phoenix Suns (18-14) for that No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.  That makes this a very important game for them when you figure that these two teams are going to be battling for that 8th spot all season, and it could come down to a tiebreaker.

New Orleans is one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in my book.  It has an excellent lineup that can beat you a number of different ways.  Anthony Davis (24.6 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 3.0 bpg) is having an MVP-caliber season.  Tyreke Evans (16.4 ppg, 5.6 apg, 5.3 rpg) and Jrue Holiday (15.5 ppg, 7.2 apg) create shots for their teammates like Ryan Anderson (15.3 ppg), who is one of the best 3-point shooters in the game for a big man.

Not only will the Pelicans be motivated to try and pull a game closer to the Suns for that 8th seed, they are also out for revenge in this game as well.  They lost all four meetings with the Suns last year and have not forgotten.  Look for them to get on the board with a win in the first meeting between these teams of the 2014-15 season.

The Suns could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  That's because they are a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, and the betting public has taken notice.  Well, those six wins came against Charlotte, New York, Washington, Dallas, Sacramento and the LA Lakers, so it's not like they are beating up on high-quality opponents.  It's now time to fade the Suns.

New Orleans is 9-4 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 5.6 points per game.  It is scoring 107.9 points at home on 47.9% shooting.  The Pelicans are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take New Orleans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +4

Rarely ever will you get the opportunity to back the Cleveland Cavaliers as underdogs this season.  I'm going to take advantage Tuesday as 4-point underdogs to the Atlanta Hawks in a game that I fully expect them to win outright.

The Cavaliers could not possibly be more undervalued at any point in the season than they are right now.  They have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 11 games overall, and they have lost two of their last three in ugly fashion to Miami (91-101) and Detroit (80-103).

Because of this recent stretch of poor play, I look for the Cavaliers to come out highly motivated for a victory in this game tonight.  Also, they just lost recently at home to Atlanta 98-127 on December 17th in what was their worst loss of the year.  They obviously haven't forgotten less than two weeks later and will be out for revenge in a big way.

Conversely, Atlanta could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  It has won 15 of its last 17 games overall while going 12-4-1 ATS in the process.  The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to jump on this team.  I'm looking to fade them when this happens.

Kyrie Irving is expected to return from a two-game absence.  A knee injury has kept him out of action ever since the 4th quarter of a loss to Miami on Christmas Day.  He missed the teams 98-89 win at Orlando and the team's 80-103 loss to Detroit. 

Having a healthy Irving back will make a huge difference for this team going forward.  Even if for whatever reason he doesn't play tonight like he's expected to, Lebron James and company have enough to get it done.

Atlanta is 5-17 ATS when playing with two days of rest over the last two seasons.  The Hawks are 20-37 ATS in their last 57 home games following one or more consecutive wins.  The Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet Cleveland Tuesday.

20* Notre Dame/LSU Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Notre Dame +7.5

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come into the bowl season way undervalued. That’s because they completely fell apart down the stretch after having their national title hopes crushed in a 27-31 loss at Florida State following their 6-0 start. The referees overturned what would have been a game-winning touchdown for the Fighting Irish in the closing seconds, and this team never really recovered from that moment-on.

They went on to beat Navy in a close one 49-39, but then lost each of their final four games to close out the season. They lost 31-55 at Arizona State, 40-43 to Northwestern, 28-31 to Louisville and 14-49 to USC. Obviously, the betting public sees these results and will be quick to fade the Fighting Irish in the bowl game. That has created a ton of line value for us to back them catching a full touchdown, and more in some places, against LSU.

Without question, Notre Dame (7-5) is still one of the most talented teams in the country. It simply self-destructed down the stretch in committing 12 turnovers in its final four games. The collapse was somewhat predictable after that loss to Florida State. You can bet that veteran quarterback Everett Golson is going to take it upon himself to get this team back up off the mat and to put forth the kind of performance that his talent warrants in the bowl game.

Also, I love Brian Kelly as a head coach for a bowl, because he is one of the best motivators in the country. Kelly will be pulling out all the stops on his players to try and get them ready to put their best foot forward against LSU. This is one final chance for the Irish to erase the sour taste out of their mouths from the four-game losing streak to close out the season. If they don’t, these players know it’s going to be a long offseason.

I certainly have to question the motivation of these LSU players coming into this bowl game. They are used to playing in big-time bowl games year in and year out, and they certainly won’t be all that excited to be playing in the Music City Bowl because of it. This is a team that had won at least 10 games in four consecutive seasons. Their No. 23 ranking is their lowest heading into the bowl season that I can remember since Les Miles took over.

LSU (8-4) did have a propensity of playing in close games against most of its top competition this season. It had six games decided by a touchdown or less this season. Those six include wins over Wisconsin (28-24), Florida (30-27), Ole Miss (10-7) and Texas A&M (23-17), as well as losses to Alabama (13-20) and Mississippi State (29-34).  So, the Tigers went a fortunate 4-2 in games decided by a TD or less.

The reason the Tigers play in so many close games is because they have a solid defense that can keep them in games, but their offense leaves a lot to be desired. The Tigers are putting up just 27.6 points, 383.4 yards per game and 5.4 per play against teams that allow 26.4 points, 389 yards per game and 5.5 per play. You can tell from these numbers that the Tigers are no more than an average offense.

There’s no question that the Fighting Irish have a huge edge on that side of the ball. They are scoring 33.0 points per game, averaging 444.8 yards per game and 6.1 per play against teams that only allow 26.0 points, 379 yards and 5.3 per play. Aside from the turnovers, Golson has really had a fine season. He is completing 60.1% of his passes for 3,355 yards with 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, while also rushing for 280 yards and eight scores.

I’ll gladly back Golson over LSU sophomore Anthony Jennings in this one. The Tigers have struggled at the quarterback position all season, and I would argue that Jennings is a worse starter than Brandon Harris, who had completed 55.6% of his passes for 452 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Jennings is only completing 48.8% of his passes for 1,460 yards with 10 touchdowns and seven picks. He is averaging 6.9 yards per attempt compared to Harris’ 10.0 per attempt. Also, Jennings has rushed for only 284 yards while averaging 2.8 per carry without a touchdown.

Notre Dame is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 road games when playing against a good team that wins between 60% and 75% of its games. LSU is 1-8 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Tigers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. LSU is 1-4 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Bet Notre Dame in the Music City Bowl Tuesday.

Note - The above is my original analysis. I am writing this note on the morning of December 30th.  I just wanted to let you know that I still recommend Notre Dame +7.5 even though there is news that has come out recently that Golson will split time with Malik Zaire at QB in the bowl game.  I believe Brian Kelly made these plans just to keep things competitive in practice during this long bowl break.  It will be better for the team in the long haul.  It also gives LSU a lot more to prepare for, which is good strategy  by Kelly.  I still expect Golson to play most of this game.

15* Illinois/Michigan Big Ten No-Doubt Rout on Michigan -2

The Michigan Wolverines could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They are showing tremendous value as only 2-point home favorites against the Illinois Fighting Illini in the Big Ten opener for both teams.  I look for them to run away with this one.

The reason Michigan is so undervalued right now is because it has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  That includes losses to some really bad teams that look terrible and are keeping the betting public from betting the Wolverines.  Now is the time to jump on them with the conference season starting.

I'm not sold that Illinois is a very good team this year, either.  It is 10-3 on the year with its 10 wins coming against the likes of Georgia Southern, Coppin State, Austin Peay, Brown, Indiana State, Baylor, American, Hampston, Missouri and Kennesaw State.  The Fighting Illini have lost to the three best teams they have faced in Villanova, Miami and Oregon.

That gives both Michigan and Illinois two high-quality common opponents.  Illinois lost on a neutral court to Villanova (59-73) and Oregon (70-77), getting outscored by 21 points in the two losses.  Michigan beat Oregon (70-63) and lost to Villanova (55-60) on a neutral court, so it outscored those two teams by 2 points.

This has been a very one-sided series to say the least.  Michigan is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Illinois.  Couple that dominance with the common opponents faced, and we're getting a big-time bargain on the Wolverines as only 2-point home favorites here.

Illinois is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 road games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of last game.  The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Illinois is 0-7 ATS when playing on Tuesday over the last two seasons.  Roll with Michigan Wednesday.

15* Iowa/Ohio State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +7

The Iowa Hawkeyes had big expectations coming into the year.  They returned three starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament last season and most of their key reserves as well.  Obviously, they haven't gotten off to the start they would have liked at 9-4, but as a result they are undervalued right now.

Iowa has played an extremely difficult schedule.  Its four losses have come to Texas, Syracuse, Iowa State and Northern Iowa.  Well, Iowa State (9-1) is currently ranked 9th, Texas (10-2) is ranked 11th, Northern Iowa (11-1) is ranked 23rd, and Syracuse is a power every year.

The Hawkeyes have also played another ranked team in No. 19 North Carolina (9-3).  That was its only true road game of the season, and it beat the Tar Heels 60-55 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  That gives Iowa and Ohio State a common opponent.  Ohio State lost to UNC 74-82 as 1-point underdogs on a neutral court.

Yes, the Buckeyes are 11-2 this year, but they aren't as strong as in year's past.  Their 11 wins have come against some extremely soft competition in UMass-Lowell, Marquette, Sacred Heart, Campbell, James Madison, Colgate, High Point, Morehead State, North Carolina A&T, Miami Ohio and Wright State.  They have lost to the two best teams they've faced in Louisville (55-64) and UNC (74-82).

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series in recent years.  In fact, the road team has gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Ohio State.

Iowa is 31-17 ATS off one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 23-11 ATS off a home win over the last three years.  The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Ohio State is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Iowa Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Tennessee State +24

This play is more of a fade of TCU then a play on Tennessee State.  TCU is just way overvalued right now due to its 12-0 start, and it's time to fade the Horned Frogs in the role of the biggest favorites they have been all season.

TCU is a team that I had circled as undervalued coming into the season, and I've even backed them a few times with success already.  However, that value is now zapped up because this team has opened 12-0 and the betting public has caught on.

This is a great spot to fade the Horned Frogs.  This is a huge lookahead spot for them.  They start Big 12 play on January 3rd against West Virginia and will certainly be looking ahead to that game.  As a result, they won't have the kind of focus it takes to put away Tennessee State by more than 24 today.

Obviously, at 2-11, the betting public wants nothing to do with Tennessee State.  However, this is a team that has only lost twice by more than 21 this season, and those two came at Vanderbilt and at Virginia as 19-point and 34-point dogs, respectively. 

Nine of their 11 losses have come by 21 or fewer points.  That includes their last two games against some very good competition.  They lost by 18 at Middle Tennessee State (47-65) and by 21 at Tennessee (46-67) as 22-point dogs.  They are certainly capable of staying within 24 of the Horned Frogs today.

Lesser teams have stayed within 24 of TCU this season on the road.  The Horned Frogs only beat Prairie Vie A&M by 17, New Orleans by 15, Radford by 24, Furman by 11 and McNeese State by 18 to name a few of the teams that have stayed within 24 of them on the road.

TCU is 1-10 ATS versus poor shooting teams making 42% of their shots or worse over the last three seasons.  Tennessee State is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or more over the last three seasons.  Tennessee State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after three straight games where they made 40% of their shots or worse.  The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing Tennessee State.  Take Tennessee State Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Pacers UNDER 194.5

The books have set the bar too high in this battle between Eastern Conference Central Division rivals in Chicago and Indiana.  These teams are very familiar with one another, which certainly favors the defense and has in recent meetings between these teams.

Indeed, the Bulls and Pacers have combined for 189 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  They have combined for 189, 166, 170, 204, 177, 171 and 189 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 180.9 points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

From a matchup perspective, the under is a good bet here as well.  Both teams love to play at slow paces.  The Pacers rank 21st in pace at 95.2 possessions per game and will control the tempo playing at home.  The Bulls rank 15th in pace at 95.9 possessions per game.

Both teams have been extremely efficient defensively as well.  They both rank in the top 10 as the Pacers are 8th in allowing 101.3 points per 100 possessions, while the Bulls are 9th allowing 101.8 points per 100 possessions.  Indiana ranks 29th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 98.2 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CHICAGO) - off two or more consecutive home wins against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 38-13 (74.5%) to the UNDER since 1996.  Tthe UNDER is 9-4 in Bulls last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pacers last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 home games overall.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* WVU/Texas A&M Liberty Bowl No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M +3.5

It’s mind-boggling to me that a middle-of-the-pack team from the Big 12 is actually favored over a bowl team from the SEC that played in the toughest conference in the country. As a result, I’ll be taking Texas A&M as a 3.5-point underdog to West Virginia in the 2014 Liberty Bowl. The Aggies have the edge in talent and schedule strength in this one, and it’s really not even close.

The Aggies played in the toughest division in the entire country in the SEC West. They managed to go a respectable 3-5 within the conference this season, which included wins over three other bowl teams in South Carolina, Arkansas and Auburn. Their five losses this year came to Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri and LSU, and they were competitive in four of those five losses.

I really liked the improvement I saw from the Aggies down the stretch heading into this bowl game. Yes, they went just 1-2 in their last three games, but they had a chance to win all three. They upset Auburn on the road 41-38 as a 23.5-point underdog. They lost to Missouri 27-34 at home, and the Tigers were the SEC East champs again this year. They also gave LSU a run for their money in a 17-23 home loss in the regular season finale.

Kevin Sumlin certainly has proven himself as a head coach in bowl games, going 3-1 in them. He is 2-0 at Texas A&M as well. The Aggies beat then-No. 12 Oklahoma 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl in 2012. Last year, they were disappointed to be playing in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Duke in a clear letdown spot. They still managed to win that bowl game 52-48.

West Virginia just did not do that well this season in its biggest games. It lost to Alabama, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas and Kansas State, which were five of the six toughest games it faced this year. It did beat Baylor 41-27 at home, but that game was played in terrible conditions and the Bears just didn’t show up. The Mountaineers’ other six wins came against the likes of Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Maryland and Towson.

The Aggies boast another elite offense this season. They are putting up 34.4 points and 449.2 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play against opposing defenses that only give up 28 points per game, 397 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Kyle Allen has taken over the starting QB duties and has done a fine job despite playing some elite competition down the stretch. He is completling 61.1% of his passes for 1,028 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio in his last three games against Auburn, Missouri and LSU, which is no small feat.

West Virginia comes in playing some of its worst football of the season. It has lost three of its last four which includes home losses to TCU and Kansas State, and an ugly road loss at Texas 16-33. The Mountaineers’ only win in their last four games came against Iowa State in a game that was closer than the final score of 37-24 would indicate. This was a 3-point game with under 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Note that the Cyclones went 0-9 in the the Big 12 this year.

The Mountaineers are also 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 275 passing yards per game over the last three seasons. It is losing to these teams by an average of 24.2 points per game. West Virginia is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992. The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven following a bye week.    These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Aggies.  Bet Texas A&M in the Liberty Bowl Monday.

20* Bengals/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -3.5

Both teams are playing extremely well coming into this one. The Steelers have won three in a row, while the Bengals have won five of their last six. However, I have no doubt that the Steelers are the better team and I look for them to put away the Bengals by four or more points Sunday night to get the cover.

Pittsburgh has really been on a mission this season. It was coming off two straight 8-8 campaigns where it fell short of the playoffs, but it has been determined to make the playoffs this year. Now that it has clinched a playoff spot, it wants more considering Cincinnati has taken over this division in recent years. This is the Steelers’ chance to prove that they are still the kings of the AFC North, and they get to do so at home, which is a huge advantage for them.

What Pittsburgh has done the last three weeks has been nothing short of remarkable. It has taken on three playoff contenders, and it has beaten them all by a touchdown or more. It started with a 42-21 win at Cincinnati on December 7th. The Steelers went on the road the next week and beat the Falcons 27-20. Then, last week, their No. 1 red zone defense came up huge as they limited the Chiefs to four field goals in a 20-12 home win.

Let’s take a look back at that 42-21 win by the Steelers over the Bengals. That game was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate as the Steelers outgained the Bengals by 135 total yards for the game. Their offense racked up 543 total yards in the win. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns, while Le’Veon Bell had 235 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns.

That was one of many high-octane offensive performances from the Steelers this season. They are putting up 27.3 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 414.5 yards per game. Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.4% of his passes for 4,635 yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Bell has rushed for 1,341 yards and eight scores, while also catching 77 balls for 774 yards and three touchdowns.

The Bengals rely heavily on the run to move the football, averaging 135 rushing yards per game.  Well, the Steelers held them to just 86 yards on 21 carries in their first meeting of 2014.  The Steelers rank 6th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 99.3 yards per game on the season, making this an excellent matchup for them.  Andy Dalton is going to have to try and beat them, and I don't believe he's capable of doing it.

While the Bengals have the better record than the Steelers at 10-4-1 compared to 10-5, there’s no question that when you look at the numbers, you find that the Steelers are the better team.  That will show up on the field again Sunday. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 60.9 yards per game. Cincinnati ranks just 20th in yardage differential, actually getting outgained by 11.5 yards per game.

Keep in mind that the Bengals will be working on a short week since they played the Broncos on Monday Night Football in Week 16. That’s another advantage the Steelers have coming into this one.  Also, Andy Dalton has been battling the flu all week and has missed practice time as a result.  The flu has also kept tight end Jermaine Gresham and defensive backs Terence Newman and Reggie Nelson out of practice.  All four guys are expected to play, but missing practice time on a short week like this is big, especially for Dalton.

Plays against road teams (CINCINNATI) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 56-24 (70%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (CINCINNATI) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five years.

The Steelers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  These three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing Pittsburgh.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Thunder/Mavericks UNDER 211.5

The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder square off Sunday in a game that I look to be very low-scoring in comparison to the total set of 211.5 points.  As a result, I'll back the UNDER believing the oddsmakers have set the bar too high for this game.

Since the Mavericks traded for Rajon Rondo, they actually have gotten worse offensively, but have been better on defense.  That was expected considering Rondo doesn't have the best offensive game outside of his ability to pass the ball, but he is one of the better defenders for his position in the NBA.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was how low-scoring these games have been between the Mavs and Thunder in recent meetings.  In their last 16 meetings, they have finished with 208 or fewer combined points 13 times.  The only three times they didn't combine for 208 or less, those games went into overtime. 

Those three were tied 111-111, 105-105, and 98-98 at the end of regulation.  So, not counting overtime, Oklahoma City and Dallas have combined for 210 or fewer points in 15 of their last 16 meetings.  That makes for a 15-1 system backing the under pertaining to tonight's total set of 211.5 points.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Rams +13

This is a massive number and if you are going to play this game, you certainly should be siding with the Rams and the 13 points. Yes, the Seahawks are playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and the No. 1 seed, but that’s also the reason they are laying so many points. Oddsmakers tend to overvalue teams with a lot to play for because the know the betting public tends to back these teams.

The St. Louis Rams would love nothing more than to pull off the upset and to end the Seahawks’ chances of getting home field. With the way they have been playing lately, they certainly are capable of hanging with the Seahawks. They have gone 3-3 in their last six games overall with wins over the Broncos, Raiders and Redskins. Two of their three losses came by 3 and 6 points to San Diego and Arizona, respectively.

Sure, they lost by 10 to the Giants last week, but they were clearly looking ahead to this game, which is why I was on the Giants +6.5 last week.  It was a hangover spot from their loss to Arizona the previous week, and it was a lookahead spot to this game against Seattle.  Plus, the Giants are playing great football right now having won three straight and having scored 24 or more points in five straight.  So, that 10-point loss is not as bad as it looks when you factor everything in.

Plus, the Rams have already proven they can hang with the Seahawks. They did just that back on October 19th as they pulled off the 28-26 upset at home despite being 6.5-point underdogs. Tre Mason rushed for 85 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries to lead the way offensively. The defense held Marshawn Lynch to just 53 rushing yards on 18 carries in the win.

This St. Louis defense has been unreal here of late. It has not allowed a touchdown in three of its past four games overall. It beat Oakland 52-0 at home, Washington 24-0 on the road, and lost to Arizona 6-12 at home while limiting the Cardinals to just four field goals in the loss. I know last week’s performance against the Giants was not good defensively, but again, the Rams were looking ahead to this game.

Seattle is coming off a very gratifying win at Arizona last week by a final of 35-6. That game was for first place in the NFC West, and with the win, the Seahawks now control their own destiny. I know they still have a lot to play for this week, but the Seahawks are also in a potential letdown spot here after that big win over Arizona.

It’s going to be very hard for them to match the intensity they played with in that game, and also difficult to live up to the expectations they have created for themselves from oddsmakers after going 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming in.  I really like fading teams who are on extended ATS win streaks because almost every time they are overvalued by oddsmakers once these streaks reach four, five games.  The betting public just cannot get enough of the Seahawks right now.

Plays against home favorites (SEATTLE) – revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Seahawks are certainly overvalued due to their recent play and the perception that they’ll be out for revenge, and this trend just goes to show how profitable it has been to fade teams in this spot over the last 10 years.

St. Louis is 10-1 ATS versus good offensive teams that average at least 5.65 yards per play in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Rams are 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last three years. St. Louis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 yards per carry. The Rams are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 following a double-digit loss. The Seahawks are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 following a blowout win by 21 or more points against a division rival.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on South Dakota State +13.5

I am a huge backer of the Northern Iowa Panthers this season.  I have backed them with a ton of success up to this point, winning with them three times in their wins over Iowa (56-44) as 3.5-point dogs, Denver (65-55) as 3-point favorites, and their loss to VCU (87-93) as 7.5-point dogs.

So, I have backed them in three straight games coming in, winning all three times.  However, I now believe they are overvalued as 13.5-point favorites against a very good South Dakota State team, and it's time to fade them. 

I also believe this is a huge letdown spot for the Panthers as they are coming off a massive win over in-state rival Iowa last time out.  It's also a lookahead spot for UNI because their conference season starts on January 1st, and they will not show up for this final non-conference game.  They won't be motivated enough to win by 14-plus points.

Even if Northern Iowa does show up, I have no doubt that South Dakota State is good enough to give them a run for their money in this one.  The Jack Rabbits are 9-4 this season after going 19-13 last year.  They brought back two of their best players from that team in Cody Larson (13.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg last year) and Jake Bittle (8.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Larson (13.5 ppg, 7.1 rpg this year) and Bittle (9.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.7 apg) have picked up right where they left off last year.  Deondre Parks (14.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has been their best player, and George Marshall (12.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg) has also been a key contributor to the starting lineup.

I've been impressed with South Dakota State even in their losses.  They only lost 67-69 at Buffalo as 3.5-point underdogs.  They also played a very good Utah team tough on the road as 17.5-point dogs, getting the cover in a 66-80 loss.  Also, their road wins over both Saint Louis (62-55) as 3.5-point dogs and Utah State (68-65) as 5-point dogs were very impressive to me.  Those four performances show me that the Jack Rabbits are capable of hanging with the Panthers, especially in this tough spot for UNI.

South Dakota State is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game.  UNI doesn't play a style that lends to blowouts because they eat up shot clocks and play in the half court.  The Jack Rabbits are 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  SDSU is 7-0 after playing two consecutive games as an underdog over the last three years.  Bet South Dakota State Sunday.

25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Giants -2.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Eagles. They just had their playoff hopes crushed with a 24-27 upset loss at Washington last week as 7-point favorites. I don’t expect them to show up at all this week after coming to the realization that they won’t be playing in the postseason. However, the Eagles’ poor play extends back over the past three weeks as well, so it wasn’t just that loss to the Redskins that did them in.

Indeed, the Eagles have now lost three straight games coming in. They lost 14-24 at home to Seattle on December 7th in a game what was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate. They were outgained by 301 total yards in that loss to the Seahawks. They also lost 27-38 at home to the Cowboys on December 14th and were outgained by 70 yards in that contest as well. Last week’s loss to the Redskins was just the icing on the cake for them.

New York, on the other hand, comes in playing its best football of the season. This is the second straight year that the Giants have finished strong following a slow start. Last year, they opened 0-6 and wound up finishing 7-9. They are doing the same this year as they have won three straight following a seven-game losing streak.

The Giants have outgained four of their last five opponents, and their solid play extends back six weeks. It started with back to back close losses to the 49ers (10-16) and Cowboys (28-31). They also lost to the Jaguars 24-25 on the road after blowing a 21-point lead in that game. They have turned those close losses into blowout victories each of the last three weeks.

The Giants won 36-7 at Tennessee on December 7th while outgaining the Titans by 195 total yards in the win. They topped Washington 24-13 at home on December 14th in another dominant defensive effort. The Giants then went into St. Louis as 6.5-point underdogs last week and came away with a 37-27 victory, outgaining the Rams by 127 total yards.

This New York offense has really hits its stride in the last five games and is hitting on all cylinders now in this new West Coast system. It has scored at least 24 points in five straight, averaging 29.8 points and 389.0 yards per game during this span. It culminated in the 37-point, 514-yard output against the Rams last week. Coming in, the Rams had not allowed a touchdown in three of their four previous games, so that was no small feat.

Odell Beckham Jr. is setting all kind of records for the numbers he has put up in just 11 games. He now has 79 receptions for 1,120 yards and 11 touchdowns. This guy just cannot be stopped as he has at least six receptions and at least 90 receiving yards in each of his last eight games, including 130-plus yards and a combined six touchdowns over the last three weeks. As a result, Eli Manning has now put up impressive numbers on the season. He is completing 64.1% of his passes for 3,981 yards and 29 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.

Philadelphia backers will point to the Eagles’ 27-0 shutout win over the Giants back on October 12th as a reason to back them again in the rematch. Well, not only do the Giants want some serious revenge from that loss, they certainly were not at full strength in that game. Victor Cruz got hurt in the early stages and the offense just couldn’t get going without him. The offense has found a way without Cruz now due to the emergence of Beckham and is hitting on all cylinders.

The Giants should have plenty of success offensively against a Philadelphia defense that has given up 24.9 points and 366.9 yards per game this season. The Eagles hare just 3-4 on the road this year, where they are giving up 36.9 points per game. The Giants are playing really well defensively right now, giving up just 15.7 points per game in their last three, and 306.0 yards per game in their last four.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) – revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (PHILADELPHIA) – off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 24-6 (80%) ATS since 1983.

New York is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games revenging a blowout loss by 21 points or more. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 17. The Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Week 17 games. New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five December games. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four December games. The wheels have fallen off of the Philadelphia bus, and they won’t be coming back on this week.

20* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Redskins +6

I was on the Redskins last week in their 27-24 upset win over the Eagles. I’ll be on them again this week as they continue to show tremendous value as 6-point home underdogs to the Cowboys in this one. The Cowboys are being overvalued here for a number of reasons, but mainly because they still could earn a first-round bye and possibly home-field advantage in the playoffs if everything breaks their way.

I also look for the Cowboys to have a letdown this week even with a first-round bye at stake. That’s because they are simply happy to be in the postseason after going 8-8 each of the last three seasons and missing the playoffs. They had a chance in Week 17 to get in each of the last three years, but lost in the finale in all three. They obviously would rather have a first-round bye, but the Redskins aren’t just going to lay down for them.

Also, the Cowboys know deep down inside that their chances of getting a first-round bye are slim to none.  They either need both Seattle and Arizona to lose this week to get one.  Or, they need the Packers/Lions game to end in a tie.  Well, the Seahawks are 13-point favorites over the Rams and likely aren't going to lose.  Obviously, the chances of the Packers/Lions game ending in a tie are slim to none.  So, Dallas is essentially locked into the No. 3 seed, and would be wise to rest its starters given the chance knowing it will have to play next week.

Washington has been an excellent team to back against division opponents despite its struggles as a team in recent years. It always shows up to play the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants, and this year has been no exception. In fact, the Redskins are 2-1 against the Eagles and Cowboys this year, with their only loss coming by a final of 34-37 as 4-point road underdogs at Philadelphia back in Week 3.

The Redskins beat the Cowboys 20-17 (OT) on the road back on October 27th. They racked up 409 total yards on the Cowboys even with Colt McCoy as the starting quarterback in the win. They were 9-point underdogs in that game. Well, if you adjust for home-field advantage, they should only be 3-point underdogs in the rematch. Instead, they are 6-point dogs, which is giving up three full points of value while crossing the key numbers of 3, 4 and 6 along the way.

Another reason the Cowboys are overvalued in this game is because they are coming off a blowout win over the Colts last week by a final of 42-7. Well, while that 35-point win looks good, it really wasn’t that impressive when you consider the state of mind the Colts were in. The Colts had just clinched their division the previous week, and they had no shot of earning a first-round bye even if they won out. So, they didn’t show up, and they rested T.Y. Hilton in the loss. I knew they weren’t going to show up, which is why I was on the Cowboys last week.

If you simply looked at the numbers alone and not the records, you’ll find that the Redskins aren’t really that much worse of a team than the Cowboys. In fact, Dallas ranks 8th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 26.5 yards per game. Washington ranks 16th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 5.7 yards per game. The Redskins have the worst record of all the top 18 teams in yardage differential, and it’s not even close. Keep in mind that the Cowboys are aided in this category by outgaining the lifeless Colts by 148 total yards last week.

Washington has played Dallas extremely tough in recent years. Indeed, the Redskins are 3-2 straight up in their last five meetings with the Cowboys, and a dominant 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Dallas has only beaten Washington by more than 3 points once in the last nine meetings. The underdog has brought home the bacon at an alarming rate in this matchup throughout the years. The dog is 25-8 ATS in the last 33 meetings.

"In order to come out here our last game of the year and compete with Dallas and beat Dallas would mean a lot just to see where we are ending the season on two huge victories against two quality opponents and two archrivals," head coach Jay Gruden said.

Robert Griffin III is also out to prove that he is the future of the franchise at quarterback.  He did a fine job last week in completing 16 of 23 passes for 220 yards with one interception in the win over the Eagles.  Griffin III is still probably the best quarterback for this team, and I like the fact that he'll continue playing motivated football this week.  As will the rest of the Redskins, who simply do not like the Cowboys and will be trying to steal this win from them Sunday.

Plays against road favorites (DALLAS) – an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after allowing 9 points or less last game are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1993. Dallas is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 road games after covering the spread in three of its last four games coming in. The Cowboys are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. The Cowboys are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games off a blowout win by 28 or more points. Dallas is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Redskins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Buffalo Bills +5

The Patriots have absolutely nothing to play for, which is why this line is so small. In my opinion, they shouldn’t even be favored over the Bills given the situation. The Patriots have already clinched home-field advantage in the AFC after their win over the Jets last week. They also needed the Broncos to lose to the Bengals, which happened for them. Now, it would be foolish for Bill Belichick to risk the health of his starters as they look ahead toward the postseason.

With nothing on the line in terms of postseason positioning this week, Belichick said he'll "do whatever is best for the team" when it comes to resting some of his regulars. Reports have surfaced that tight end Rob Gronkowski could rest, and it's unclear if receiver Julian Edelman, offensive lineman Dan Connolly or running back LeGarrette Blount will play after each sat out last week with injuries.

"With the (first-round bye), you realize we're going to have a little time to rest up," quarterback Tom Brady said. "We just want to go out and play well and see if we can string together as many good plays as possible."  That sounds like a guy who knows he's only going to be in there for a series or two.

Even if Belichick plays his starters more than I’m expecting, I have no doubt that those players out there on the field could care less about winning this football game. These players are already looking ahead to who they are going to play in the postseason. Belichick will do his preaching about how it will be important to stay sharp, and he’s right, but it’s just so easy to not be sharp knowing that there’s no consequence if you aren’t.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has every reason to be motivated for a win Sunday despite the fact that it was eliminated from the playoffs last week. The Bills can do something that no other Buffalo team has done since 2004, which is finish a season with a winning record. They will also be out for revenge on the Patriots to try and end this six-game losing streak in the series, and a 13-game losing streak in Foxborough. There are so many positives this team could take away from a win Sunday as they look ahead to next season.

"The game means a lot to me. We're going to play the players that we feel give us the best chance to win," Head coach Doug Marrone said. "That's just the way that I'm wired and that's my responsibility to the team. We all have a responsibility to each other and I have to make those decisions each week."

This Buffalo defense is a big reason why I’ll recommend backing them Sunday. They rank 4th in the league in total defense at 315.7 yards per game, and 4th in scoring defense at 18.7 points per game. This stop unit has played at an elite level for most of the season. In two of their last three games, the Bills held Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers to a combined 0-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That’s no small feat, and it’s a sign that they can slow down this New England offense, too.

Kyle Orton continues to play well for this Buffalo offense. He has gone 6-5 as a starter this season and has been a huge reason for this team’s turnaround. Orton is completing 63.9% of his passes for 2,842 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year. He has managed to get Sammy Watkins involved more than the quarterbacks before him. Watkins has 62 receptions for 925 yards and six scores this year, needing 75 more in this game to reach 1,000 as a rookie, which is mighty impressive.

Plays on any team (BUFFALO) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 64-32 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS since 1983. Buffalo is 13-1 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win 26.1 to 17.5 in this spot, or by an average of 8.6 points per game.  Take the Bills Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Bulls UNDER 202

This is my favorite total in an East vs. West battle in the NBA over the past seven days.  I look for a very low-scoring game between the New Orleans Pelicans and Chicago Bulls tonight.  The books have set the bar too high in this one as it's likely that neither team reaches 100 points.

Both of these teams play at pretty slow paces this season.  The Pelicans rank 21st in the league in pace at 95.1 possessions per game.  The Bulls rank 15th in pace at 95.8 possessions per contest.  Chicago remains a solid defensive team, ranking 8th in defensive efficiency at 101.9 points per 100 possessions allowed.

What really stood out to me about this game was how these teams have fared head-to-head in recent years.  The Bulls and Pelicans have combined for 194 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven of their last eight meetings. 

They have combined for 167, 206, 183, 171, 194, 157, 162 and 185 points at the end of regulation in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of just 178.1 points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 202.

Chicago is 16-4 to the UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 10 seasons.  We're seeing an average combined score of 180.3 points per game in this spot.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five games overall.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Hornets UNDER 190.5

I believe the books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets.  I look for both teams to struggle offensively in this one, which has been the case for both of these teams all year.

Orlando is putting up just 93.7 points per game this season while ranking 26th in the league in offensive efficiency at 98.9 points per 100 possessions.  Charlotte is scoring 95.8 points per game while ranking 25th in offensive efficiency at 99.4 points per 100 possessions.

What I really like about this play is that both teams like to play at a snail's pace.  Indeed, the Hornets rank 24th in pace at 94.5 possessions per game.  The Magic rank 23rd in pace at 94.7 possessions per contest. 

This game will be played in the half court with few fast break opportunities as both teams like to slow it down and feed their big men in Al Jefferson for the Hornets and Nikola Vucevic for the Magic.  They each try to get their big men a touch every possession down the floor, which eats up shot clocks and is very beneficial for under backers.

Orlando is 37-14 to the UNDER in its last 51 road games.  The Magic are 14-2 to the UNDER in their last 16 road games after having lost four of their last five games coming in.  Charlotte is 18-8 to the UNDER as a home favorites of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Magic last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Hornets last 22 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Penn State/Boston College Pinstripe Bowl Line Mistake on Penn State +3

The Penn State Nittany Lions may have the worse record this season than the Boston College Eagles, but I believe they are the better team in this one. The Nittany Lions are much better than their 6-6 record would indicate. First-year coach James Franklin will certainly benefit from having all this extra bowl preparation as this young team should come out with their best performance of the season in the Pinstripe Bowl.

I know Penn State went just 2-6 within the Big Ten, but it played one of the toughest schedules in the conference. It also came out on the short end of the stick in so many close games this year. Indeed, four of Penn State’s six losses came by a touchdown or less. It lost on the road to both Michigan (13-18) and Illinois (14-16), while also falling to Maryland (19-20) at home.

However, it was the loss to Ohio State that shows what the Nittany Lions are capable of. They took the Buckeyes to overtime where they eventually lost 24-31 as 14-point underdogs. They held Ohio State to just 293 total yards in the loss, which is no small feat. As you know, the Buckeyes are playing in the four-team playoff as one of the top four teams in the country.

Penn State has played tremendous defense all season, and I like backing the better defensive team in bowl games. It is giving up just 17.7 points and 269.9 yards per game this season to rank 2nd in the entire country in total defense. It has been dominant against both the run and the pass, but its run defense is why it will pull the upset against the Eagles in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Boston College is a power-running team that rushes for 252 yards per game while only throwing for 132 yards per game. Well, not many teams are better equipped to stop the Eagles than the Nittany Lions. Penn State gives up just 85 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry against teams that average 161 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. So, the Nittany Lions are holding their opponents to 76 yards per game and 1.7 per carry below their season averages.

The Eagles really have not fared well in bowl games at all here of late, and a lot of that has to do with their offense being so predictable, which is the case again this year. Boston College is 0-4 in its last four bowl games, not once topping 19 points, and averaging 14.8 points per game in the four losses. That includes a 19-42 loss to Arizona last year in which it was outgained by 178 total yards. The Nittany Lions are happy to be here as their last bowl game appearance was in 2011.

I believe the Eagles are getting too much respect from the books here due to their solid finish to the season where they nearly upset Florida State and beat Syracuse 28-7. Conversely, Penn State is not getting any respect due to its poor finish where it lost at Illinois 14-16 and to Michigan State 10-34 at home in its final two games. Well, the Nittany Lions held the Spartans to just 298 total yards, including 118 rushing on 41 carries as that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.

The Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven December games. Boston College is 1-5 ATS in its last six bowl games. The Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Penn State is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games on grass. The Nittany Lions are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl Saturday.

20* Miami/South Carolina Independence Bowl BLOWOUT on South Carolina +3.5

Both of these teams had visions of winning their respective conferences coming into the season. Both fell flat on their faces. I don’t believe there is a motivational advantage one way or the other in this game because they both envisioned being in better bowl games coming into the year. So, it comes down to which team is better on the field, and I believe that team is South Carolina.

Yes, the Gamecocks did not live up to expectations. They had won 11 games in three consecutive seasons heading into 2014. While they underachieved on the field, I have no doubt that’s the reason they are undervalued here. They should not be the underdogs in this game given that they are the more talented team and this extra bowl prep could allow their young talent to finally shine through.

South Carolina had to work pretty hard just get make a bowl game as it found itself as an underdog in two of its final three games of the season needing two wins to get in. It became bowl eligible after beating Florida 23-20 on the road as a 6.5-point underdog, and then South Alabama at home 37-12 as a 24-point favorite.

After clinching bowl eligibility, it did not play well in a season-ending 17-35 loss at Clemson, but the Tigers had a healthy Deshaun Watson at quarterback for that game, and he makes all the difference for them.  Plus, Clemson was motivated to put an end to a 5-game losing streak to South Carolina in the series.  The Gamecocks did not want that game as much as the Tigers, and it was reflected in the final score.

Miami pretty much fell apart at the end of the season and I question its motivation coming in because of it. It lost each of its final three games, and the last two were very concerning. The Hurricanes went into Virginia and lost 13-30 as 4-point favorites, and then lost at home to Pittsburgh 23-35 as 11-point favorites. Their defense is not playing well at all right now, allowing an average of 31.7 points per game in their last three.

There’s no question that South Carolina played the tougher schedule this season since it plays in the stacked SEC. I believe that works in its favor coming into this game getting to play a middle-of-the-pack ACC team that isn’t close to one of the best teams that it has played this season.

The Gamecocks have flourished outside of the SEC this season, going 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to Clemson.  They have beaten three bowl teams this year in ECU, Florida and Georgia as well.  While those three wins are impressive, it's the losses that these teams had really stand out to me.  It’s clear that South Carolina is the better team when you look at the losses.

Four of South Carolina’s six losses came by 7 points or less as it went just 2-4 in games decided by that margin. Five of Miami’s six losses came by 10 points or more. It lost by 18 to Louisville, by 10 to Nebraska, by 11 to Georgia Tech, by 17 to Virginia, and by 12 to Pittsburgh. While the Gamecocks are nowhere near as bad as their 6-6 record suggests, the Hurricanes are every bit as bas as their 6-6 record given these results.

Steve Spurrier has certainly coached up his players the last three years in bowl games. They are 3-0 with wins over then-No. 21 Nebraska, then-No. 19 Michigan and then-No. 19 Wisconsin. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, have lost each of their last four bowl games. Spurrier believes his players will be ready for Miami, too.

“We have played Nebraska, Michigan and Wisconsin the last three years. Miami is certainly right in that category with those schools and I think it will certainly get the attention of our players and hopefully we’ll play at our best,” said Spurrier.

Miami is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a conference game. The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games. Miami is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games overall. The Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  Take South Carolina in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

15* Kentucky/Louisville Battle of Unbeatens on Louisville +6

No. 1 Kentucky (12-0) travels to face No. 4 Louisville (11-0) in a battle of unbeatens Saturday.  This is the most anticipated game of the 2014-15 college basketball season up to this point, and I believe it's going to live up to expectations as it goes right down to the wire.  I look for the Cardinals to pull off the upset, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.

This line has gotten out of control.  It opened as a pick 'em and has been bet up to Kentucky -6 now, a full six-point move.  The value is clearly with the home underdog Cardinals in this one now as the betting public continues to pound the Wildcats.

Kentucky is the single-most overvalued team in the country right now because they continue to blow teams out, but they have been feasting on an easy schedule.  Indeed, 10 of Kentucky's 12 games have been at home this year, while the other two were on a neutral court.  This will be Kentucky's first true road game of the season, and I look for it to struggle.

Louisville is the real deal this year.  It has gone 11-0 up to this point with all 11 of its victories coming by 9 points or more.  That includes impressive wins over Minnesota (81-68), Ohio State (64-55) and Indiana (94-74).  Terry Rozier (16.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Montrezl Harrel (16.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Wayne Blackshear (13.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and Chris Jones (12.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg) are four key returning players from last year's team.

These four will be out for revenge from Louisville's 69-74 loss to Kentucky last year in the NCAA Tournament.  That game was played on a neutral court obviously, but home-court advantage has been huge in this series here of late.  Indeed, the home team has won five of the last six meetings between Louisville and Kentucky.

Kentucky is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing a shooting percentage of 33% or less in their previous game.  The Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Kentucky is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games.  The Wildcats are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* VA Tech/Cincinnati Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +3

While the Virginia Tech Hokies have the worse record in this matchup at 6-6 compared to 9-3 for Cincinnati, I believe they are the better team. The only reason they have a worse record is because they play in a much tougher conference in the ACC. They played the much more difficult schedule this year as well, having to face three bowl teams out of conference.

Those three teams were Ohio State, East Carolina and Western Michigan. The Hokies went 2-1 against those teams which is rather impressive. They beat Ohio State 35-21 on the road to hand the Buckeyes their only loss of the season. They also topped Western Michigan 35-17 at home, while losing a close one to ECU 21-28.

The Hokies fought their way to a bowl bid with four grueling games down the stretch that were all decided by 4 points or less. Ultimately, they beat Duke 17-16 on the road and Virginia 24-20 at home to keep their 22-year bowl streak alive. They earned their way to a bowl game, so you can bet that they are going to be pumped up to be playing in one this year, and to bounce back from an ugly loss to a very good UCLA team in the bowl last season.

Cincinnati comes in overvalued due to having won seven straight games coming in. The betting public is going to be all over this team because of the way they finished the season, but they did their damage mostly against a soft schedule. Five of their wins came against teams with losing records, while the other two both came at home against ECU and Houston in nail-biters by a combined 15 points.

There are three blowout losses that the Bearcats suffered that I just cannot get out of my head. They lost by 22 at Ohio State, by 27 at home to Memphis, and by 21 at Miami. Only one of Virginia Tech’s six losses this season came by double-digits as five of them came by a touchdown or less. That’s how close the Hokies were to having a much better record this year as they went just 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

While Cincinnati does have the better offense in this one, I tend to like to back teams with the better defense in bowl games, and it’s not even close between these teams. Virginia Tech gives up just 20.4 points and 331.7 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total defense. It is holding opponents to 9.4 points and 69 yards per game below their season averages.

Cincinnati has been atrocious on this side of the football. It is giving up 447.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play against opponents that only average 390 yards per game and 5.6 per play. The Bearcats rank 104th in the country in total defense. The Hokies will find plenty of success offensively against this soft Cincinnati defense.

Plays on any team (VIRGINIA TECH) – average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hokies give up just 3.9 yards per carry this season, while the Bearcats allow 4.8 per carry.

Virginia Tech is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games off a win by 6 points or less. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Bearcats are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last seven bowl games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Bet Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia 76ers +14

The Portland Trail Blazers are in the ultimate letdown spot here tonight.  I look for them to fail to bring the kind of effort to the court it's going to take to put away the pesky Philadelphia 76ers by more than 14 points in this one as a result.

Portland is coming off a four-game road trip against New Orleans, San Antonio, Houston and Oklahoma City.  It went an impressive 3-1 on that trip that included a pair of overtime wins over both the Spurs and Thunder.  It's simply going to be hard for them to be motivated in their first game back home following that huge road trip against the West's elite.

The 76ers have won back-to-back road games coming in.  They went into Orlando and won 96-88 as 8.5-point underdogs on December 21st, and then went into Miami and won 91-87 as 7.5-point dogs on December 23rd.  In fact, the 76ers have played their best basketball on the road this season as all four of their wins have come away from home.

The 76ers have played the Blazers very tough here in recent meetings.  Indeed, they have only lost by more than 10 points once in their last 12 meetings with the Blazers, making for an 11-1 system when factoring in this 14-point spread.  They lost 104-114 at home to the Blazers as 13-point dogs in their first meeting of 2014-15.  They also won 101-99 in Portland as 12-point dogs in their final meeting of 2013-14.

Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or more of their attempts this season.  It is only losing by 4.6 points per game against these teams.  The 76ers are 79-49 ATS in their last 128 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. 

Portland is 0-10 ATS in hits last 10 home games after playing three consecutive games as an underdog.  It is losing in these spots by an average of 10.6 points per game.  This trend just goes to show that the Blazers tend to let down at home following a tough stretch of games against really good teams.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Pelicans UNDER 201.5

Greg Popovich was extremely frustrated with his team's performance on Christmas Day in a 106-114 loss to Oklahoma City.  He voiced his frustration in the media, and I look for his team to respond tonight.  Their effort will be at an all-time high, and that will show up on the defensive end more than anything.

That 220 combined point performance last night is a big reason for this inflated line, but it's also due to the fact that the Spurs have gone over the total in five of their last six.  Well, two of those were triple-overtime games against the Blazers and Grizzlies.  They were tied with the Grizzlies 92-92 at the end of regulation, and tied with the Blazers 97-97 at the end of regulation.  If not for overtime, they'd be 3-3 to the under in their last six.

The Spurs are still one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, and that will really show tonight.  They rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 100.7 points per 100 possessions.  Both the Spurs and Pelicans prefer to play at slower paces than league average.  In fact, they are both tied for 19th in pace at 95.1 possessions per game.

What really stood out to me about this under was how low-scoring these games have been between the Spurs and Pelicans.  Indeed, they have combined for 199 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings.  They have combined for 199, 176, 197 and 196 points in those four meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 192.0 points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 201.5.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 37-12 (75.5%) over the last five seasons.  San Antonio is 91-61 to the UNDER in its last 152 when revenging a loss to an opponent as a home favorite.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Pelicans last four games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -2

What the UCF Knights (9-3, 7-1 AAC) have done this year to get back on top of the AAC standings is absolutely amazing. They lost their star quarterback in Blake Bortles, who was the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft this offseason. Many expected them to take a big step back after going 12-1 last year and beating Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, but that just has not been the case.

After opening the season 0-2 with losses to Penn State and Missouri, it seemed as though they were taking a big step back. However, they have won nine of 10 games since, which includes a 3-0 record against bowl teams. They beat Houston 17-12 as 2.5-point road underdogs, beat BYU 31-24 as 2.5-point home favorites, and beat East Carolina 32-30 as 6.5-point road underdogs. Wins against those three teams are no small feats. UCF is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall as well. Somehow, this team continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

The reason the Knights have had staying power this season is because of their defense. They are giving up just 17.9 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 282.8 yards per game. They have really stepped up their defensive game of late in allowing 44 total points in their last four games overall, which is an average of 11.0 points per game. That even includes the 30 points they gave up to ECU, which was actually a pretty good showing considering ECU ranks in the top five in the country in total offense this season.

While the defense carried the load all season, the UCF offense actually came around in the second half behind the play of sophomore quarterback Justin Holman. The Knights scored 29 or more points in five of their final six games, including 32 points and 422 total yards in the 32-30 win over ECU in the season finale. Holman is completing 59.0% of his passes for 2,661 yards with 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the year, while also rushing for a trio of scores.

NC State (7-5, 3-5 ACC) is way too inconsistent of a team to trust in this bowl game. It has played good against poor competition and bad against good competition. Indeed, the Wolfpack are 6-0 against non-bowl teams this season, but just 1-5 against bowl teams with all five losses coming by double-digits. Their only win over a bowl team came in the season finale in their rivalry with UNC. The Tar Heels simply did not show up for that game as they became bowl eligible with an upset win over Duke the week before.

The Wolfpack suffered some very ugly losses to fellow bowl teams. Their five double-digit losses were a 41-56 loss to Florida State, a 41-0 loss to Clemson, a 30-14 loss to Boston College, an 18-30 loss to Louisville, and a 23-56 loss to Georgia Tech. I believe the Knights rank right up there with those five teams that the Wolfpack lost to all by double-digits.

This is also a good matchup for the Knights. The Wolfpack rely heavily on the run, averaging 206 rushing yards per game compared to just 196 passing. Well, the Knights have been suffocating against the run this season. They give up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.

The location of this bowl game gives the Knights a huge home-field advantage as well. It will be played in St. Petersburg, Florida, which is obviously the home state of Central Florida. There’s no question that the Knights will have more fans in attendance than the Wolfpack in this one, which will help keep the team focused and motivated to play well in front of this crowd.

NC State is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games off a road win against a conference rival. UCF Is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. The Knights are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

UCF is 8-0 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons. The Knights are 10-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two years. UCF is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a road win over a conference rival. The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

20* Warriors/Clippers Side & Total Parlay on Los Angeles -2/UNDER 218

I am siding with the Clippers and the UNDER tonight in the finale of five games on Christmas Day.  I look for them to beat the Warriors in what will be a high-scoring game, but not nearly as high-scoring as anticipated with this total set at a ridiculous 218 points.

I have a couple different reasons as to why I'm backing the Clippers.  The first comes in the fact that they will be motivated following back-to-back losses during a brutal 4-games-in-5-days stretch.  They lost three of those four games by a combined 13 points and easily could have won all four.  Their three losses all came on the road.

The Clippers are also way undervalued coming into this game after failing to cover the spread in five straight and seven of their last eight.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them right now, which is why they are only 2-point home favorites.  That's absurd considering the Clippers are 11-3 at home this season where they are outscoring teams by 7.4 points per game.

This play is also a fade of the Warriors, who could not be more overvalued right now due to their 23-4 start that has them in first place in the Western Conference.  I don't believe the Warriors are the best team in the West, they have simply been on a hot streak that is not going to continue.  That showed in their 105-115 loss at the Lakers on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.

Also, home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series, especially here of late.  The home team has won five straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  Dating back further, the home team is 13-2 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  That is more than enough reason to lay this short number on the Clips.

The biggest reason to back the UNDER tonight is the fact that this 218-point total is the highest in this series in the last 23 meetings.  In fact, the oddsmakers haven't set a total of higher than 215.5 points in any of those 23 games. 

The first time these teams played this season back on November 5th, the total was set at 211.5.  Yes, that game went over the total as the Warriors won 121-104 at home, but they shot 58.1% from the field and 15-of-25 (60%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

You also have to factor in that these teams hate each other after meeting in the first round of the playoffs last year in a series that went seven games.  So, they are obviously familiar with one another, plus these are division rivals.  PLays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - vs. division opponents, off a upset loss as a favorite are 45-22 (67.2%) since 1996.

When you look at the season averages for these two teams, it's also easy to see that this total has been inflated.  The Warriors are combining with their opponents for an average of 206.8 points per game this season.  The Clippers are combining with their foes for an average of 207.1 points per game.

Golden State is 31-10 to the UNDER in its last 41 road games after a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Warriors last four vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Clippers last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 36-16 in Clippers last 52 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 41-20 in Warriors last 61 games following a ATS loss.  The UNDER is 43-18 in Warriors last 61 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Clippers and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Warriors/Clippers Side & Total Parlay on Los Angeles -2/UNDER 218

I am siding with the Clippers and the UNDER tonight in the finale of five games on Christmas Day.  I look for them to beat the Warriors in what will be a high-scoring game, but not nearly as high-scoring as anticipated with this total set at a ridiculous 218 points.

I have a couple different reasons as to why I'm backing the Clippers.  The first comes in the fact that they will be motivated following back-to-back losses during a brutal 4-games-in-5-days stretch.  They lost three of those four games by a combined 13 points and easily could have won all four.  Their three losses all came on the road.

The Clippers are also way undervalued coming into this game after failing to cover the spread in five straight and seven of their last eight.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them right now, which is why they are only 2-point home favorites.  That's absurd considering the Clippers are 11-3 at home this season where they are outscoring teams by 7.4 points per game.

This play is also a fade of the Warriors, who could not be more overvalued right now due to their 23-4 start that has them in first place in the Western Conference.  I don't believe the Warriors are the best team in the West, they have simply been on a hot streak that is not going to continue.  That showed in their 105-115 loss at the Lakers on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.

Also, home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series, especially here of late.  The home team has won five straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  Dating back further, the home team is 13-2 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  That is more than enough reason to lay this short number on the Clips.

The biggest reason to back the UNDER tonight is the fact that this 218-point total is the highest in this series in the last 23 meetings.  In fact, the oddsmakers haven't set a total of higher than 215.5 points in any of those 23 games. 

The first time these teams played this season back on November 5th, the total was set at 211.5.  Yes, that game went over the total as the Warriors won 121-104 at home, but they shot 58.1% from the field and 15-of-25 (60%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

You also have to factor in that these teams hate each other after meeting in the first round of the playoffs last year in a series that went seven games.  So, they are obviously familiar with one another, plus these are division rivals.  PLays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - vs. division opponents, off a upset loss as a favorite are 45-22 (67.2%) since 1996.

When you look at the season averages for these two teams, it's also easy to see that this total has been inflated.  The Warriors are combining with their opponents for an average of 206.8 points per game this season.  The Clippers are combining with their foes for an average of 207.1 points per game.

Golden State is 31-10 to the UNDER in its last 41 road games after a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Warriors last four vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Clippers last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 36-16 in Clippers last 52 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 41-20 in Warriors last 61 games following a ATS loss.  The UNDER is 43-18 in Warriors last 61 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Clippers and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Lakers/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 207.5

I believe the books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls tonight.  I look for points for the Lakers to be hard to come by against one of the league's top defenses, and I expect this to be a very low-scoring game in the end as a result.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was the head-to-head history of the Lakers and Bulls.  These teams always seem to bring their best efforts defensively when they face one another, and that will be the case against on Christmas Day.

Indeed, the Lakers and Bulls have combined for 202 or fewer points in each of their last nine meetings with the UNDER going 7-2 in those contests.  Even that 202-point effort was an overtime game that was tied at 93-93 at the end of regulation last year.  Only 3 out of a possible 18 times in their last nine meetings has one of these teams scored at least 100 points.

The Lakers and Bulls have combined for 178, 202, 171, 178, 175, 172, 189, 183 and 201 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 183.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.5.  As you can see, there's a ton of value in backing the UNDER as a result.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall.  The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CMU/WKU Bahamas Bowl BLOWOUT on Western Kentucky -3.5

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5, 4-4 C-USA) weren’t expected to do much this year with Bobby Petrino leaving for Louisville in the offseason. Well, they certainly exceeded expectations and proved that they were a very competitive team all year, even against some really good competition. I like their chances of covering this small 3.5-point spread in the Bahamas Bowl against the overmatched Central Michigan (7-5, 5-3 MAC).

Four of Western Kentucky’s five losses this season came by 8 points or less. The only exception was a bad loss to Louisiana Tech, which won the C-USA West division in a landslide. What really impressed me about the Hilltoppers were three of their wins against fellow bowl teams. Indeed, they beat Marshall (67-66) as a 23.5-point road underdog, beat Navy (36-27) as a 7.5-point road dog, and beat Bowling Green (59-31) as a 7-point home dog.

The Hilltoppers are playing their best football of the season coming into this bowl game as well. They have won four straight while going 3-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming against UTEP in a 35-27 win as a 9-point home favorite. They also beat Army 52-24 and UTSA 45-7 while going on the road and earning that 1-point win at 12-1 Marshall during this stretch.

Western Kentucky is going to light up the scoreboard in this one, and that’s a given. It is averaging 44.0 points per game while ranking 6th in the country in total offense at 527.8 yards per game. Its opponents are only allowing 30.3 points and 419 yards per game, so it is putting up roughly 14 points and 109 yards per game more than its opponents average giving up on the season.

Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty is the catalyst, completing 67.5 percent of his passes for 4,344 yards with 44 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this year.  This is the final game of his college career, so you know he is going to want to win it and will have his team focused.  Running back Leon Allen (1,490 yards, 12 TD, 5.8 per carry) is one of the most underrated backs in the country and gives this offense balance.

Another reason Doughty and company will be motivated is because they lost to Central Michigan 24-21 in their first-ever bowl in 2012.  There are several players who are on this team that played in that game, and they are going to want revenge.

"We do have a decent amount of our players who got an opportunity to play in that bowl game and unfortunately we did not come out on top," head coach Jeff Brohm said. "Our guys are excited about this matchup to play a team that beat us a couple years ago in a bowl game."

I have not been nearly as impressed with Central Michigan this season. Its seven wins have come against the likes of UT-Chattanooga, Purdue, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Miami Ohio with only one of those seven teams (NIU) making a bowl game this year. Four of its five losses have come by double-digits to Kansas (10-24), Syracuse (3-40), Toledo (28-42) and Western Michigan (20-32). It also lost at home to lowly Ball State (29-32) despite being a 9.5-point favorite.

The Chippewas simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Hilltoppers in this one. They are averaging just 25.2 points and 380.8 yards per game offensively against defenses that allow an average of 29.6 points and 405 yards per game.

There’s no denying that the Chippewas have been the better team defensively, but I expect the Hilltoppers to get close to their 44-point season average on offense, and the Chippewas won’t be able to score enough to counter it.  You also have to consider that the Hilltoppers have faced the much tougher schedule this year when looking at the numbers.

Central Michigan is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 vs. good rushing teams that average at least 4.75 yards per carry. Western Kentucky is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Hilltoppers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins. The Chippewas are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Central Michigan is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games following an ATS loss.  Western Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive straight up wins as an FBS member.  Bet Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Orlando Magic come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, which has them way undervalued as the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  They should be laying more than two points to the Boston Celtics here.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that the Magic just lost to the Celtics on the road on December 17th less than a week ago.  So, they are going to be out for revenge in this rematch, and I look for them to get it now that they are finally healthy and at full strength.

After all, home-court advantage has been huge in this series here of late.  The home team has won each of the last four meetings between the Magic and Celtics, and I look for that trend to continue here tonight.

I also question the motivation and mental state of the Celtics right now.  They just traded away their best player in Rajon Rondo, and these players cannot feel comfortable about it knowing that Danny Ainge is still in full-blown rebuilding mode.

In their first game without Rondo, the Celtics were rolled at Miami 84-100 on Sunday.  They clearly were out of sync in that game without Rondo, and that 16-point loss is really bad when you consider that Miami was playing without Chris Bosh.

Boston is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games after covering the spread in three of its last four coming in.  The Magic are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 3-7 on the road this season.  Roll with the Magic Tuesday.

20* NIU/Marshall Boca Raton Bowl No-Brainer on Northern Illinois +10

The Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2, 7-1 MAC) have been blessed to have a great dual-threat quarterback for several years now. As a result, they have made the MAC Championship Game in five consecutive seasons, winning three of them. Both Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch were here for the first four, and now it’s Drew Hare that’s continuing the tradition of superb quarterback play in 2014.

Hare leads a Northern Illinois offense that is putting up 32.2 points and 442.5 yards per game. He is completing 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,097 yards with a ridiculous 17-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio. He has also rushed for 850 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry. The Huskies rush for 253 yards per game and 5.2 per carry as a team.

The Huskies are clearly playing their best football of the season heading into this one. They have won seven straight coming in with three of their last four coming against bowl teams. They beat Toledo 27-24 at home on November 11th, Western Michigan 31-21 on the road on November 28th, and then Bowling Green 51-17 in the MAC Championship on December 5th.

While the offense is hitting on all cylinders, the defense really needs commended for the job that it has done this season, especially here of late. The Huskies are giving up a respectable 23.6 points and 382.9 yards per game this season. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in eight of their 13 games this season. They have given up 24 or fewer in six straight for an average of 19.0 per game to close out the season as well.

Marshall is a team that was way overvalued after a 9-0 start that saw it win almost every game in blowout fashion. Well, that start came against a very soft schedule. Indeed, each of the first eight games the Thundering Herd played were against teams that did not make a bowl game. As the schedule finally got tougher toward the end, it was evident that Marshall wasn’t as good as it was thought to be.

The Thundering Herd have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall as they have been way overvalued in each. They were 18-point favorites at UAB on November 22 and only won 23-18. They were 23.5-point home favorites against Western Kentucky on November 28th and lost 66-67. Then, they were 8.5-point home favorites against Louisiana Tech in the Conference USA Championship and only won 26-23.

Now, the Thundering Herd are again overvalued being asked to win by double-digits against a very good Northern Illinois team, which is way too much. The betting public looks at Marshall’s 12-1 record and assumes that it is a great team, when in reality it has simply benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country. The last three games show that the Thundering Herd aren’t an elite team, and NIU may be the best team that they have faced yet.

Marshall also had dreams of playing in a New Year's bowl game after its 11-0 start before that crushing loss to Western Kentucky.  Had it gone 13-0, it easily could have played a bowl game after the new year.  While this is still a nice bowl game, there's no question that the Thundering Herd would have been a lot more motivated had they gone 13-0 and gotten into a bigger bowl.  NIU will be the more motivated team in this one as a result.

Marshall fans have taken to social media to voice their displeasure over Marshall's decision to play Northern Illinois instead of a lower-tier, power-conference team in another league-affiliated bowl.  They were disappointed because the Herd have already played three MAC teams and no power-conference teams in their 2013 schedule.

"Any negativity towards that is, to me, an insult to these players, is an insult to this coach, is an insult to me and is an insult to this university," Marshall athletic director Hamrick said. Obviously, this is a distraction that the team must deal with, and I'm sure that several of the players feel the same way that they'd rather play a power-five team than a fourth team from the MAC.

NIU head coach Rod Carey could not sound more enthusiastic about playing in this game.  "You're going to have two conference champions going at it, it's an unbelievable matchup," Carey said. "We have a ton of respect for Marshall and what they have done this year."

Whoever stops the run better will have a great chance to win this game.  Well, Northern Illinois has given up an average of 2.8 per carry and 215 total yards rushing in its last two games.  Marshall, on the other hand, has given up 207.7 per game on the ground in its last three contests.  NIU ranks eighth in the FBS with 3,288 rushing yards on the season.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a win by 21 or more points over the last two seasons. Marshall is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following a two-game home stand. Northern Illinois is 34-15 ATS in its last 49 vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60-plus penalty yards per game. The Huskies are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Bet Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado +1.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are a team I circled as one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into 2014-15.  They returned four starters from last year's team that made the NCAA Tournament, and they didn't even enter the season in the Top 25.

While the Buffaloes do have three losses already, all three have come against quality competition in Wyoming, Georgia and Colorado State, and two of the three came in true road games.  I like what I've seen from this team in their last two contests. 

They beat Northern Colorado 93-68 as a 12-point home favorite and DePaul 82-68 as a 9-point favorite in the first game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii.  I look for them to take down George Washington today as they should not be underdogs for this contest.

To no surprise, the four returning starters for the Buffaloes are their four leading scorers.  Asia Booker (15.3 ppg, 3.4 apg, 3.5 rpg) and Josh Scott (14.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 2.0 bpg) lead the way, while Xavier Johnson (13.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Wesley Gordon (7.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) have had big seasons up to this point as well.

George Washington owns an identical 7-3 record to Colorado.  This is a team that returned three starters from last year, but lost its top two scorers in Maurice Creek (14.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg) and Isaiah Armwood (12.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg).  The Colonials came into the season overvalued due to advancing to the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year.

The Colonials have gone just 3-4 ATS in all games this season, and they've lost to the best competition they have faced.  Their three losses came to Virginia, Seton Hall and Penn State, while their seven wins came against Grambling, Rutgers, Longwood, MD-Balt County, Charlotte, DePaul and Ohio.  They lost by 17 points to Virginia and by 13 to Penn State.

The Colonials are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  George Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Colonials are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for an 18-2 system backing the Buffaloes.  Take Colorado Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -4

The Dallas Mavericks are one of the best teams in the West at 20-8 this season.  They just got even stronger with the addition of Rajon Rondo a few days ago, who helped lead them to a 99-93 home win over San Antonio in his Dallas debut on Saturday. 

The Mavericks are showing excellent value here as only 4-point home favorites over the Atlanta Hawks Monday.  The Mavericks are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their second game in five days, which has given Rondo extra time to get used to playing on his new team.

Atlanta comes in way overvalued due to having won 12 of its last 13 games overall while going 10-3 ATS in the process.  The betting public is obviously all over them right now, especially after their back-to-back wins over Cleveland and Houston.  It's going to be very tough for them to live up to the massive expectations they have created for themselves from oddsmakers going forward, especially tonight.

Dallas has won five of its last eight meetings with Atlanta with all five of those victories coming by at least 5 points, and four by 8 points or more.  Two of Atlanta's last three wins against Dallas have come by a combined 5 points.  As a result, the Mavs are 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Hawks as well.

Atlanta has been dominating the Eastern Conference, but it has been a completely different story against the West.  The Hawks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 vs. Western Conference foes.  Dallas is 54-25 ATS in its last 79 games following an ATS loss.  The Mavericks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

20* Broncos/Bengals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver -3

Both the Broncos and Bengals have a ton to play for right now, so I don’t think motivation will be an issue at all in this game. Denver wants to get at least a first-round bye and possibly home-field advantage in the AFC, while Cincinnati is trying to fend off both Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the AFC North Title. So, with motivation being a non-issue, this one will come down to which team is better on the field. There’s no question in my mind that team is the Broncos, and the numbers show it's not even close.

Denver ranks 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 91.3 yards per game. Its offense has remained explosive this season in averaging 29.1 points and 400.7 yards per game. But, the biggest different for this team compared to last year is the defense. The Broncos are only allowing 21.6 points and 309.4 yards per game to rank 4th in the entire NFL in total defense.

The Bengals are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. There’s no way they should be in first place in the division right now with the numbers they have put up. They rank 19th in yardage differential, actually getting outgained by 10.0 yards per game on the season despite their 9-4-1 record. They are one of only two teams in the NFL that ranks 19th or worse in yardage differential that currently has a winning record on the season. The Cardinals are the other, and they are also among the league’s most overrated.

Amazingly, Cincinnati has played just five teams with winning records this season. It is 2-3 in those five games with a couple wins over Baltimore by a combined 10 points. Its the losses that are troubling. The Bengals lost 27-0 to the Colts, 43-17 to the Patriots, and 42-21 to the Steelers. They are getting outscored by an average of 12.8 points per game in their five contests against teams with winning records this year. I believe the Broncos are the best team that they have faced yet.

This is a great matchup for the Broncos’ defense as well. The Bengals are a run-heavy team that averages 130 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Only one team in the league has been better at stopping the run than the Broncos. They rank 2nd in the league against the run in allowing just 71.6 yards per game and 3.4 per carry. They have held 10 of their last 11 opponents to less than 100 rushing yards, and nine of their last 11 to 74 or fewer on the ground.

Including the playoffs, the Bengals are 2-9 in prime-time games since 2011, the year Andy Dalton became the starting quarterback. That includes an 0-3 record in nationally televised postseason games, and a 2-6 mark in games played unopposed on Sunday, Monday and Thursday nights.  Dalton has just crumbled on the big stage, and he will again Monday night as he feels the pressure mounting.

Peyton Manning is 8-0 all-time against Cincinnati, including a 3-0 December record that’s highlighted by 10 touchdowns passes and no interceptions. The Broncos are 4-0 in night games this season, most recently winning in Kansas City 29-16.  Manning has proven he can handle the big stage and will put on another show Monday night.

Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last three seasons. Denver is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points. The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 December games. The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games following a win. The Bengals have lost their last two home games each by 21 points in a 3-24 loss to the Browns and that 21-42 loss to the Steelers.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls (17-9) will be highly motivated for a win tonight as they welcome in Eastern Conference-leading Toronto (22-6) to the United Center Monday.  They will be out to prove that they are the best team in the East in this one.

Helping their cause is the fact that they are expected to be at nearly full strength for this one.  Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson and Derrick Rose are all listed as probable.  Meanwhile, Toronto remains without second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg).

The Raptors come in overvalued having won six straight games, all against teams with losing records.  They also come in extremely tired.  This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 6th game in 9 days for the Raptors, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.

Chicago has had two days' rest coming in after last playing on Friday, where it beat Memphis 103-97 on the road.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Rockets -3

The Houston Rockets have been waiting for this game since the playoffs.  This will be their first meeting with the Blazers since losing to them in the first round of the 2013-14 playoffs in six games.  There will be no questioning their motivation in this one, especially considering they have lost two straight coming in.

Portland comes in way overvalued after having won each of its last five games overall, including two wins against the defending champion Spurs, who were short-handed both times they faced the Blazers.  While the Blazers are one of the better teams in the West, they are simply getting too much respect here as short road underdogs.

All four of Portland's wins over Houston in the playoffs came by 7 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.  Houston has still won seven of its last 12 meetings with Portland with all seven of those wins coming by 5 points or more, including five by double-digits.

Portland is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off a game where it was called for 13 or less fouls.  The Blazers are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 after playing two consecutive games as an underdog.  The Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Rockets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Houston is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Take the Rockets Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on UConn -7

The defending champion UConn Huskies have not gotten off to the start that they wanted at 4-4.  Due to this poor start, they are undervalued at this point of the season.  They certainly aren't as bad as their 4-4 record would indicate.

UConn has lost two games on buzzer-beating three points against Texas (54-55) and Yale (44-45).  Its other two losses came against two of the better teams in the country in West Virginia (68-78) and Duke (66-56).

I have been impressed with the Huskies in a couple of their wins with a 65-57 win over College of Charleston and a 75-64 triumph over Dayton, both on neutral courts.  While this game against Columbia is technically on a neutral court, there's no question the Huskies will have the home-court advantage since it's being played in Bridgeport, CT.

Columbia is a team that comes in overvalued due to its 6-3 start and its five returning starters.  Well, it lost one of those starters to a season-ending foot injury, and that was last year's leading scorer in Alex Rosenberg (16.0 ppg).

The Lions are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because they played Kentucky tough in a 10-point road loss as 26-point underdogs.  Well, that was the only quality opponent they have faced this season.  They have lost to both Stony Brook and Loyola-MD, while their six wins have come against Wagner, Lehigh, Farleigh Dickinsion, American, Bucknell and Hofstra.

The Huskies are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight off their slow start and their 10-point loss to Duke on December 18th.  Columbia last played on December 20th and will only have one day to prepare for UConn.  The Huskies have a big edge in rest and preparation coming into this one as a result.

UConn is 10-1 ATS after playing its last game as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two years.  Columbia is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games following an ATS win.  UConn is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 neutral site games.  The Huskies are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. loss.  Take UConn Monday.

15* Colts/Cowboys Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -3.5

Under normal circumstances, I believe this 3.5-point spread would be about perfect for these two teams as I view them as equals. Tack on 3 to 3.5 points to the Cowboys for home-field advantage, and this would be the right line. However, these aren’t normal circumstances, and as a result there is a ton of value in backing the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites here.

Dallas is going to show up fully determined for a win Sunday. It still hasn’t clinched a playoff spot, and if it wins out, it will win the NFC East. It even has a chance for home-field advantage because if it wins out and gets some help, it will win the tiebreaker. That’s why I’m not worried at all about the Cowboys possibly having a letdown following their big win over the Eagles last week.

There is no way in hell you should back the Colts (10-4) with the state they’ll be in mentally. They just clinched the AFC South last week with a win over the Texans. So, they are guaranteed a first-round home game. They have no shot at getting a first-round bye because they trail the Broncos (11-3) and Patriots (11-3) each by one game, and they lost to both of those teams to lose out on the tiebreaker.

So, the Colts would need to win out and have either the Broncos or Patriots lose out to get a first-round bye. They know that the chances of either of those teams losing out are slim to none, so they really can’t improve their playoff positioning. I look for the Colts to come out very flat this week and to be looking at getting everyone healthy going into the playoffs.

T.Y. Hilton is the best playmaker the Colts have. Well, he injured his hamstring last week in the win over the Texans, and he is questionable to play this week. Hilton did not practice Wednesday, Thursday or Friday, which is an indication that he probably won't play.  Reggie Wayne (59 catches, 665 yards) was also held out of Friday's practice and is dealing with multiple elements.

My best guess is that the Colts rest Hilton given the position they’re in, which would be a huge loss for the offense. Hilton has 82 receptions for 1,345 yards and seven touchdowns this year, nearly double the receptions and yardage total of their second-leading receiver (Coby Fleener, 42 receptions, 682 yards) on the team. Without Hilton, Andrew Luck would be pretty lost.

With the Colts' pretty much stagnant playoff situation in mind, there is plenty of talk about Indianapolis resting injured players or veterans such as wide receiver Reggie Wayne.  "We've talked about a lot of guys," head coach Chuck Pagano said. "He's one of the guys that you could consider but we'll look at him, we'll look at guys that are on the injury list that are dealing with nagging injuries and if it's best for them and best for the team then we'll do obviously what's right in all those cases."

Yes, I realize that DeMarco Murray has a broken hand, but running backs play with broken hands all the time. Murray is listed as questionable, but I fully expect him to play as he has been cleared by doctors, and the decision is up to him. Even if for whatever reason he cannot go, then Joseph Randle is more than a capable backup who can shoulder the load. Also, Tony Romo and the Dallas passing game are good enough to win this game without much of a running game. But again, I expect Murray to play.

Romo is having one of the best seasons of his career, completing 69.3 percent of his passes for 3,188 yards with 28 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. The Cowboys are 10-2 in games that Romo has played the entire 60 minutes without injury. The offense should have their way with an Indianapolis defense that is giving up a whopping 29.2 points and 393.7 yards per game on the road this year.

Indianapolis is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. good rushing teams that average at least 130 rushing yards per game in the season half of the season. Dallas is 32-16 ATS in its last 48 home games after having won three of its last four games coming in. The Colts are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. That includes ugly recent losses to the Steelers (34-51) on the road and the Patriots (20-42) at home.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6.5

The Rams are way overvalued right now because of their back-to-back shutout wins over both Oakland and Washington. They had covered four straight games and found themselves as 6-point home favorites over the Arizona Cardinals last week. Well, they obviously came up short, losing 6-12 .

That loss to the Cardinals officially eliminated the Rams from the playoffs, and I question their motivation coming into this game because of it.  Now, they find themselves as 6.5-point chalk against an improving New York Giants team that I would argue is every bit as good as the Rams.  St. Louis just has no business laying this big of a number.

The Giants have played very well in each of their last five games. They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 210 yards, outgaining them by an average of 42.0 yards per game. They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Washington (24-13) and Tennessee (36-7). They blew a 21-0 lead at Jacksonville to lose 24-25. They also played both Dallas (28-31) and San Francisco (10-16) tough as their three losses during this stretch have come by a combined 10 points.  They haven't been beaten by a touchdown or more in any of their last five games.

This New York offense has really started to heat up with the emergence of rookie wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. It has put up 24 or more points in four straight games while averaging 28.0 points per game during this stretch. Eli Manning now has decent numbers on the year as he’s competing 63.2 percent of his passes for 3,590 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

Manning has thrown for at least 247 yards in four straight games with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio during this stretch.  Beckham has been the biggest reason for his resurgence.  He has 71 catches, including 46 in his last five games, and an NFL-high 62 targets over that span.  He has at least six receptions and 90 yards in each of his last seven games while totaling six touchdowns in his last four.

The defense is also playing its best football of the season here of late. The Giants are allowing just 15.3 points and 279.0 yards per game in their last three contests. They held the Jaguars to just 258 total yards, the Titans to 207 yards, and the Redskins to 372 yards. There’s just no way the Giants should be catching this many points when they are playing great on both sides of the football right now.

In my eyes, these teams are pretty much equals. That also shows up in the stats as the Giants rank 23rd in the league in yardage differential this season, while the Rams rank 24th. So, as equals, this line would be a pick ‘em on a neutral field. Give the Rams three points for home-field advantage, and this line should be St. Louis -3. We are getting some real good value here on the Giants as 6.5-point dogs as there are a couple of key numbers between 3 and 6.5 that could work in our favor here.

This also could be a letdown spot for the Rams. They are coming off that tough loss to Arizona last week, and now with nothing to play for at 6-8, they could be looking ahead to next week’s game at Seattle in hopes of spoiling the Seahawks’ bid to win the division. They likely won’t be as motivated for this game as they were against Arizona, or as they will be next week in Seattle. That could work against them here as well.

There has been some tension among some St. Louis players and coaches following that loss to Arizona, too.  The defeat caused finger-pointing in which tight end Jared Cook said afterward that the Rams were "outcoached" and "outplayed."  Cook would later go on to say that he regretted saying those words, but sometimes you just cannot take that back.

The Giants' pass rush has seen a big-time resurgence here in recent weeks.  They have produced 22 sacks in their last three games for a total of 41 on the season, which is the fourth-best mark in the NFL.  That's bad news for a Rams' offensive line that has been hurt by injuries and poor play.

Tackle Jake Long is out for the year with a knee injury. Left guard Rodger Saffold is at less than full strength with a nagging shoulder injury that will require offseason surgery. Injury-prone center Scott Wells is wearing a brace covering his left arm while right guard Davin Joseph is a journeyman.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) – after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 60-26 (69.8%) ATS since 1983. The Giants are 33-13 ATS in their last 46 road games following two more more consecutive ATS wins.

The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring and allowing 14 points or less last game. The Rams are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Giants are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games on turf. New York is 5-1 straight up and a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with St. Louis dating back to 2001. Take the Giants Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +12.5

The Toronto Raptors have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season at 21-6.  They own the best record in the Eastern Conference, but with that strong performance up to this point comes expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  They are way overvalued tonight.

The New York Knicks own one of the worst records in the NBA at 5-23.  While that is terrible and unexpected, I have no doubt that the Knicks are better than their record.  They are also way undervalued right now due to that record as they are catching a whopping 12.5 points against their division rivals today.

A whopping 18 of New York's 23 losses have come by 11 points or less.  That includes 13 losses by 7 points or fewer.  This team is going to be showing great value going forward as a result, especially with the recent return of Carmelo Anthony from a knee injury.  He is expected to play again today, and Amare Stoudemire is also returning from a one-game absence.

This is a rivalry game since these teams play in the same division.  They just played a few days ago as the Raptors beat the Knicks on the road 95-90 in overtime on December 14th.  The Knicks will be out for revenge in this one, while the Raptors may fail to show up after just recently beating the Knicks.

This is also a lookahead spot for Toronto.  It has a huge stretch of six road games coming up that starts tomorrow.  It goes to Chicago tomorrow and will be looking ahead to that game.  The upcoming road slate includes games against the Bulls, Clippers, Nuggets, Blazers, Warriors and Suns.  That's certainly something to be looking forward to for the Raptors.

The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.  Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last five Sunday games.  The underdog is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings.  New York is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Toronto has beaten New York by more than 12 points just once in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Knicks Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +11

While everyone and their brother knows that Rex Ryan is likely out after this season, he has done a tremendous job of getting his players to show up every week. The perfect going away present for him would be to beat Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots one last time. Ryan has made no bones about the fact that he hates the Patriots and that they are their biggest rivals. The Jets always come to play against New England.

That was obviously the case in their first meeting of 2014. The Jets actually outplayed the Patriots as 9.5-point road underdogs and should have won, but came out on the losing end 25-27. They outgained the Patriots 423-323 for the game, or by 100 total yards. They did so behind a balanced attack offensively with 218 rushing yards and 205 passing yards. This has been a very closely contested series as four of the last five meetings have been decided by 3 points or fewer. The home team has won four of the last five meetings as well.

New York can use its rushing attack to shorten the game and keep Tom Brady and the New England offense off the field, which has been a formula for success for Ryan in his time here against the Patriots. The Jets rank 2nd in the league in rushing this season at 147.1 yards per game. The Patriots haven’t exactly been that great against the run as they allow 4.1 yards per carry. New York, averaging 4.7 per carry, should have plenty of success on the ground in this one.

The Jets have been emphasizing the run even more here down the stretch with a ton of success.  They have averaged 186.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games overall.  They have also averaged 197.5 rushing yards per game in their last two meetings with the Patriots.  Prior to rushing for 218 yards in their first meeting this season, they had rushed for 177 yards in a 30-27 upset home win over the Patriots in their final meeting of 2013 as well.

The thing I really like about the Jets is that they continue to fight. While they have gone just 1-2 in their last three games, they had a chance to win all three. They only lost 13-16 at home to Miami as 6.5-point underdogs three weeks ago. They lost 24-30 in overtime to Minnesota as 4-point road underdogs two weeks ago. They were finally rewarded for their hard-nosed play with a 16-11 win at Tennessee last week. These players love Ryan, and they aren’t going to lay down for the Patriots, either.

The Patriots could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. This was already one of the biggest public teams in the NFL.  But after winning nine of their last 10 and covering the spread in five of their last six, the betting public is all over them even more right now. They were last week in a blowout win over the Dolphins, and they will be again this week against the Jets.

Oddsmakers realize this, forcing them to set the spread much higher than it should be. That’s indicated by the fact that the Patriots were only 9.5-point home favorites against the Jets the first time these teams played, and now they are 10-point road favorites. They should only be favored by roughly 3.5 points given the line of the first meeting when adjusting for home-field advantage.  I believe we are getting roughly 7 points of value on the Jets this week because of it.

Plays against road teams (NEW ENGLAND) – after a win by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. New England is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Jets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven December games. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with New England.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Oddsmakers are saying that these teams are essentially equals with this spread when you factor in three points for home-field advantage. I have little doubt that the Steelers are the better team, and that will show on the football field Sunday. There is a ton of value in backing them as only 3-point home favorites in this contest. The numbers certainly indicate that they are the superior squad.

Indeed, Pittsburgh ranks 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 68.5 yards per game. Only the Broncos, Seahawks and Colts rank ahead of the Steelers in this department, so they are in some elite company. Conversely, the Chiefs rank just 18th in yardage differential, and they are actually getting outgained by 8.8 yards per game.

Pittsburgh simply lights up the scoreboard on a weekly basis. It is scoring 27.8 points per game while ranking 1st in the NFL in total offense at 424.9 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger is having a career year, completing 67.2% of his passes for 4,415 yards with 29 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Antonio Brown (115 receptions, 1,498 yards, 11 TD) and Le’Veon Bell (1,278 rushing yards, 765 receiving yards, 10 total TD) are both having monster seasons as well.

Kansas City, which ranks 22nd in the league in total offense at 323.0 yards per game, simply is not going to be able to keep up. Alex Smith STILL has not thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver all season. As a result, its offense is way too predictable as the Steelers can focus in on stopping Jamaal Charles and the tight ends. Dick LeBeau will have the right game plan in place to make Smith try and beat them downfield, which he is incapable of doing.

This Pittsburgh defense hasn't been lights out by any means, but it has played better in recent weeks with a lot of guys finally getting healthy.  Also, it stops the run pretty well, giving up just 103 rushing yards per game against teams that average 115 per game.  It has allowed a combined 183 rushing yards in its back-to-back wins over Cincinnati (42-21) and Atlanta (27-20).  It has given up less than 100 rushing yards in five of its last seven overall.  Stopping Kansas City's rushing attack will be the key for the Steelers defensively, and they are equipped to do it.

The Steelers are 4-2 at home this season where they are putting up 35.0 points and 460.2 yards per game. The Chiefs are just 3-4 on the road this year where they are scoring 20.3 points per game and averaging 333.3 yards per game. Kansas City just does not play all that well when it gets away from Arrowhead Stadium, while the Steelers have proven that their game travels everywhere with them.

Kansas City is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 7.5 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 home games after allowing 6.0 or more yards per play in its previous game. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Pittsburgh is 4-0 straight up in its last four home meetings with Kansas City.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 47.5

I am taking the UNDER in this game Sunday between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs.  Unders went 13-3 in the NFL last week and have been a very profitable bet toward the end of the season as they usually are with the change in weather and the defenses having the advantage over the offenses with so much game film by now.  This is easily my favorite total in Week 16.

Pittsburgh has one of the best offenses in the NFL, which is a reason I'm also on the Steelers this week, but it is not going to put up a huge number on this Chiefs' defense.  I look for the Steelers to win in a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one somewhere in the neighborhood of a 24-14 game.

Pittsburgh does not have an elite defense this year, but it does stop the run well, which will be the key to stopping Kansas City.  The Steelers are only giving up 103 rushing yards per game against teams that average 115 rushing yards per game.  They have held the Bengals and Falcons to a combined 183 rushing yards over the last two weeks, and they have allowed less than 100 in five of their last seven.

Kansas City has one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  It ranks 22nd in the league in total offense at 323.0 yards per game.  It relies on Jamaal Charles and the running game as well as the tight ends to move the football.  In fact, the Chiefs have gone 17 straight games without throwing a touchdown pass to a wide receiver.  Veteran Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will have an excellent game plan in place to stop Charles and the tight ends and make Alex Smith try and beat them.

All Kansas City games this season have been unbelievably low-scoring.  In fact, the Chiefs have combined with their opponents for 45 or fewer points in 12 of their 14 games this year.  They have played in 10 straight games where 45 or fewer points were scored, making for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today's total set of 47.5 points.

The Chiefs do play great defense, ranking 8th in the league in total defense at 331.8 yards per game, and 4th in total defense at 18.1 points per game.  They also defense the pass very well, allowing just 199.2 passing yards per game to rank 2nd in the NFL in passing defense.  Again, the Steelers are not going to put up a ton of points on the Chiefs, but just enough to get the win and cover while keeping the total under the number.

The last two meetings between these teams have been ugly, defensive battles.  In 2012, the Steelers beat the Chiefs 16-13 (OT) at home for 29 combined points.  In 2011, the Steelers also snuck out  with a 13-9 road win for 22 combined points.  While I look for a little higher-scoring game this time around, it won't be enough to exceed 47 points.

Kansas City is 14-4 to the UNDER In its last 18 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 260 passing yards per game.  The Chiefs are 14-4 to the UNDER in their last 18 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 27 or more points per game.  Pittsburgh is 10-2 to the UNDER in its last 12 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games.  The UNDER is 40-19-1 in Chiefs last 60 games on grass. 

Mike Tomlin is 8-1 to the UNDER after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Tomlin is 6-0 to the UNDER in home games in the last two weeks of the regular season as the coach of the Steelers.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Harvard/Virginia CBB Sunday Early Riser on Harvard +10

The Harvard Crimson are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They return three starters from a squad that went 27-5 last year and won the Ivy League with a 13-1 record.

Those three starters are Wesley Saunders (14.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.8 apg last year), Siyani Chambers (11.1 ppg, 4.6 apg) and Steve Moundou Missi (10.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg).  Head coach Tommy Amaker has another talented, experienced squad in 2014-15 due to the return of these three guys.

I believe the Crimson came into the season overvalued, but after losing to Holy Cross 57-58 as a 10.5-point favorite on a neutral court, this team isn't getting the love it deserves right now.  I have seen plenty from them since that loss to know that they are still the team that I thought they'd be coming into the year.

They have since rolled over Florida Atlantic 71-49 as a 15.5-point favorite and Houston 84-63 as a 10.5-point favorite.  They also beat a very good UMass team 75-73 at home before reeling off three straight double-digits victories over Northeastern (60-46), Vermont (64-52) and Boston (70-56).

Saunders (20.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 4.5 apg) has proven to be one of the best players in the entire country this year.  Plus, the team has a ton of balance.  Chambers (8.6 ppg, 5.6 apg) and Moundou-Missi (9.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.1 bpg) are the other two returning starters players playing well.  Corbin Miller (8.5 ppg) and Jonah Travis (8.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg) have also offered key contributions.

Virginia could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  Due to its 10-0 start that has included a 6-2 ATS record in lined games, the betting public is quick to jump on the Cavaliers.  Yes, they won the ACC last year and are still a very talented team this year with what they have back, but they should not be laying 10 points to a Harvard team that is one of the best that they have faced all season.

This is an excellent spot for the Crimson as well.  They just finished up finals, so their minds will be free and clear.  Throw in the fact that their last game was on December 8th 13 days ago, and they'll be chomping at the bit to get back on the court.  So, they have had essentially two weeks to prepare for Virginia, which is a huge advantage.  They'll also be highly motivated to face at Top 25 team.

Virginia, on the other hand, has not had hardly any time at all to prepare for Harvard.  It last played on Thursday, December 18th in a 70-54 home win over Cleveland State as a 17-point favorite.  It has only had two days to prepare for Harvard, which is a massive disadvantage considering the Crimson have had two weeks.

Plays against any team (VIRGINIA) - in a game involving two teams who don't shoot many 3 point shots (

20* Bowling Green/South Alabama Camellia Bowl BAILOUT on South Alabama -2.5

When deciding who to take in a bowl game, you certainly must consider what motivational factors will influence the game. I have no doubt that the South Alabama Jaguars (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt) will be the more motivated team in this one. They are extremely happy to be here as this will be their first-ever bowl game.

Bowling Green (7-6, 5-3 MAC), meanwhile, got a worse bowl because it lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. If it would have won that game, it would be playing Conference USA Champion Marshall.  It is not nearly as excited to be here playing South Alabama when it could have played the 12-1 Thundering Herd instead.

You also have to consider the proximity of the schools to their bowl destination. Well, South Alabama is going to have a huge home-field advantage in this one considering it is being played in its home state in Montgomery, Alabama. So the Jaguars get check marks in both motivation and home-field advantage. Those two factors are enough to lay the 2.5 points with the Jaguars.

I’m not so sure that they aren’t the better team, too. They come into this game undervalued because they went 1-4 down the stretch after a 5-2 start. Well, a closer look at the five opponents they played tells the story. They played five other bowl eligible teams during this stretch in UL-Lafayette, Arkansas State, Texas State, South Carolina and Navy. They played three of those teams very tough, beating Texas State 24-20 at home, losing at Lafayette 9-19, and losing to Navy 40-42.

Bowling Green is playing its worst football of the season coming into this game. It has gone 0-3 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in its last three games overall. It lost 20-27 at Toledo while getting outgained by 117 yards, it lost 24-41 at home to a bad Ball State team while getting outgained by 31 yards, and lost 17-51 to Northern Illinois while getting outgained by 265 yards. The Falcons just cannot be trusted to bring their best effort after that crushing loss to the Huskies in the MAC Title Game.

South Alabama has not been elite offensively this season, but it has rushed the ball fairly well. It averages 183 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. It should find plenty of success moving the football on the ground against a Bowling Green defense that has been pitiful this year.

The Falcons give up 33.9 points and 499.2 yards per game against teams that only average 27.9 points and 415 yards per game. They have been atrocious against the run all season, allowing an average of 207 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. In their last three games, they gave up 325 rushing yards to Toledo, 199 to Ball State, and 334 to Northern Illinois.

There’s no question that the Jaguars have the better defense in this one, and that’s a big reason while I’ll side with them here. The Jaguars are giving up just 25.8 points, 390.5 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play against teams that average 30.5 points, 432 yards per game and 6.0 per play. Bowling Green only averages 29.8 points per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that give up 29.8 points per game and 5.8 per play, so its offense is nothing special.

South Alabama quarterback Brandon Bridge can be a tough matchup for any defense. The 6-foot-5, 235-pound senior is on the radar of many scouts with the prototypical build and athleticism that NFL teams covet. He completed only 51.9 percent of his passes in 10 games but threw 11 touchdowns and two interceptions over the final six.  He'll be looking to put on a show for the scouts in his final game.

The Falcons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Bowling Green is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Bowling Green is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  These four trends combine for a 15-1 system backing the Jaguars.  Take South Alabama in the Camellia Bowl Saturday.

15* Chargers/49ers NFL Saturday No-Brainer on San Diego +1

The San Diego Chargers are 8-6 right now and still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. They are just one game back in the wild card race, so they still have a ton to play for. There’s no question that we’re going to see an inspired effort from the Chargers given the situation. The same cannot be said for the 49ers.

San Francisco was eliminated from playoff contention with its 7-17 road loss to Seattle last week. It now has nothing to play for but pride. Off a big loss to their arch rivals last week, and with the realization that they won’t make the postseason, I look for the 49ers to come out very flat in this game and to not bring the kind of focus and effort it’s going to take to win.

The Chargers have played an absolutely brutal schedule here of late, which is the reason they have lost two in a row coming in. They lost to the Patriots 14-23 and to the Broncos 10-22, who are the top two seeds in the AFC right now, and arguably the two best teams in the NFL. They were competitive in both losses, and their defense played very well in them.

The 49ers are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, especially in the second half of the season. They are scoring just 17.9 points per game and averaging 314.2 yards per game to rank 28th in scoring offense and 27th in total offense. The 49ers have scored 17 or fewer points in each of their last five games, averaging a pitiful 11.2 points per game during this stretch. Colin Kaepernick has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, and he simply cannot be trusted.

Philip Rivers thrives late in the season, going 30-8 in his career in the month of December. Obviously, the losses to the Patriots and Broncos have hurt that record, but not too many teams are beating those two squads this year. I still believe Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in the game, and he’s having another fine season. He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,639 yards with 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Knowing the competitor he is, Rivers will rally the troops this week and go get a much-needed win for their playoff hopes.

The 49ers also have a ton of injury issues right now, and with nothing to play for, they are more apt to rest them then have them play through injury.  The players listed as questionable are Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde, Steve Johnson, Glenn Dorsey, Chris Culliver, Anthony Davis, Tramaine Brock, Ahmad Brooks and Chris Borland.  All of these players are key contributors, and most are starters.

Also, Ray McDonald was released the team due to his legal issues.  It's fitting that the 49ers waited until they were out of the playoff chase to release McDonald.  It's a very telling sign that they are going to go the conservative route with all of these injured players and most likely give their younger guys a chance to play.  They don't care about wins and losses at this point.

Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) – in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 78-39 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. San Diego is 58-37 ATS in its last 95 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less. The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. The 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  Take the Chargers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night UPSET SHOCKER on Northern Iowa +2.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 9-1 with their only loss coming in double-overtime to VCU on the road by a final of 87-93 last time out as 7-point underdogs.  That was not a bad loss at all as VCU is one of the better teams in the country.  I have no doubt that UNI is the better team in this one and will pull off the upset over Iowa.

The Hawkeyes just have not impressed me at all this year.  They are off to an 8-3 start, and while it has come against a decently tough schedule, their three losses just stand out like a sore thumb.  Especially their 57-71 loss to Texas at Madison Square Garden and their 75-90 home loss to Iowa State last time out.  Their only good win came against North Carolina, which shot 27.9% in the loss to essentially hand the Hawkeyes the win.

UNI has played Iowa very tough through the years, and 2014 will be no exception.  The Panthers and Hawkeyes have actually split their last eight meetings with the Panthers winning four and the Hawkeyes winning four.  Well, this may be the best team UNI has had in the history of its program.

The Panthers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, including 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  UNI is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  Iowa is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  These five trends combined for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Panthers.  Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4.5

This is a great spot to fade the Portland Trail Blazers and back the New Orleans Pelicans.  The Blazers are running on fumes right now with the schedule they have faced coming into this game and will have nothing left in the tank tonight.

The Blazers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  Adding to that is the fact that they played a triple-overtime game against San Antonio last night.  I just can't see them putting forth a much effort in this game at all.

New Orleans comes on fresh after having yesterday off following its 99-90 win at Houston on Thursday.  The Pelicans have now won five of their last seven games overall to climb back above .500 at 13-12.  Anthony Davis is playing at an MVP-caliber level to lead the way.  It's only losses have come to Golden State (122-128, OT) and Dallas (107-112) during this seven-game stretch.

Home-court advantage has been enormous in this series as the home team has gone 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between New Orleans and Portland.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Portland is 2-7 ATS in its last nine meetings with New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

20* Eagles/Redskins NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +9

This line is inflated due to the fact that the Eagles are fighting for their playoff lives, while the Redskins are eliminated from postseason contention and have been for quite some time. While in some situations I would worry about the Redskins showing up, I never worry about it when they are playing their NFC East rivals. They always show up for the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants no matter the circumstance.

Washington is one of the best 3-11 teams in the history of the NFL. When you look at the numbers and not its record, you would think that this is a winning team or at least one around .500. That’s another reason why I believe the Redskins are undervalued here is because the numbers tell a completely different story than their record does.

Indeed, Washington ranks 9th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 19.7 yards per game this season. Of the top 16 teams in yardage differential, only two of them have losing records. They are the Redskins and Saints, who are also an underrated team due to their 6-8 record. The Redskins rank ahead of teams like the Packers, Cowboys, Eagles, Bills, 49ers, Dolphins, Chargers, Chiefs and Bengals in yardage differential this year.

The Redskins rank 12th in the league in total offense at 358.6 yards per game. Yes, Colt McCoy is out with an injury, but it might be a blessing in disguise. Robert Griffin III has had some time to grasp the game from the sidelines, and I believe he’ll be a better quarterback because of it. He will look to finish the season on a strong note to prove that he is still the quarterback of the future in Washington. The defense ranks 10th in the league in giving up just 338.9 yards per game.

Philadelphia is coming off back-to-back ugly performances, and the curse of Mark Sanchez is finally starting to show through. It managed just 139 total yards in a 14-24 home loss to Seattle, and 294 total yards with four turnovers in a 27-38 loss to Dallas in its last two games. It was outgained by a whopping 301 total yards by the Seahawks, and by 70 yards by the Cowboys. The Eagles just have no business laying this many points with the way they are playing right now, especially on the road with Sanchez at quarterback.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent meetings. Indeed, each of the last four meetings have been decided by 8 points or less. Washington actually outplayed Philadelphia in the first meeting of 2014 and should have won on the road. It lost 34-37 as a 4-point dog despite outgaining the Eagles 511-379 for the game, or by 132 total yards. Kirk Cousins threw for 427 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, and RGIII should pick up right where Cousins left off against this soft Philadelphia pass defense.

The Eagles are giving up 24.8 points per game and 371.3 yards per game this season to rank 26th in the league in total defense.  This defense is playing without arguably its two best players as well.  DeMeco Ryans has been out for an extended period of time and is the leader of the defense.  Now, top pass rusher Trent Cole is out with a fractured hand that he suffered last week against the Cowboys.  That's one less pass rusher that RGIII has to worry about, which will be huge in keeping him comfortable.

Plays on any team (WASHINGTON) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, a team that wins 25% of fewer of its games playing a team with a winning record are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Washington is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games after 8-plus games vs. excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a home loss by 10 points or more.  Bet the Redskins Saturday.

15* Syracuse/Villanova FOX Saturday No-Brainer on Syracuse +12

While it's clear that Syracuse is not as dominant as it has been in year's past, getting 12 points here with the Orange is simply a gift from the oddsmakers.  They are clearly way undervalued right now after their slow start to the season, while Villanova is way overvalued.

The Orange are just 6-3 this season, but they have played a brutal schedule up to this point already.  They lost to California, Michigan and St. John's, but beat Iowa and Louisiana Tech.  You can bet that head coach Jim Boeheim is using this slow start as a great teaching point for his players, and this young squad is only going to get better in a hurry as the season goes on.

Villanova is clearly one of the best teams in the country.  I have even backed the Wildcats this season on a couple of occasions.  However, with a 10-0 start that includes a 7-1-1 ATS record comes expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  The betting public is all over the Wildcats after five straight covers, and this number has been set so high that it's now time to fade them.

Syracuse has owned Villanova as the Wildcats have consistently struggled against the Orange's size in recent history.  The Orange are 4-1 in their last five meetings with the Wildcats with their only loss coming in overtime (75-71) on the road last year.  The Wildcats may win this game, but it's not going to be by double-digits.

Plays against a favorite (VILLANOVA) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 97-56 (63.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series.  Take Syracuse Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +14

The Charlotte 49ers should not be catching 14 points against Georgetown today.  With four returning starters and off to a solid 6-4 start, the 49ers have shown me enough to know that they can easily stay within this spread and give the Hoyas a run for their money.

Charlotte has been highly competitive all season.  It has beaten some good teams like Penn State and South Carolina.  Three of its four losses came by single-digits against some very good competition.  It did lose to Miami 58-77, but also lost to Miami 74-77, at Davidson (86-91) and on a neutral court against George Washington (70-78).

Georgetown is way overvalued here.  While the Hoyas are improved this season, they are off to just a 6-3 start this year.  Yes, their three losses have come to very good teams in Wisconsin, Butler and Kansas, but their only good win came against a down Florida team by a single point (66-65).  They only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi 78-62 at home and Robert Morris 80-66 at home.  They aren't going to blow out these 49ers by more than 14 points today.

Charlotte is 10-2 ATS in non-conference road games over the last two seasons.  Georgetown is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The 49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big East opponents.  The Hoyas are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

15* Nevada/LA-Lafayette 2014 Bowl Opener on Louisiana-Lafayette +1

For starters, the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns have a huge home-field advantage for this game as it will be played in their home state of Louisiana. In fact, these players and coaches are very familiar with this game as this will be the fourth consecutive time they have played in it. They are a perfect 3-0 in those three games. Obviously, it would be nice for these players to experience a different venue, but they haven’t looked at it that way. They will be fighting for their thousands of fans that show up to watch.

Lafayette (8-4) has really been playing some great football for quite some time now. It has gone 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games overall. It went on the road and beat Texas State (34-10), LA-Monroe (34-17) and Troy (42-23) during this stretch, while also beating two other bowl teams in Arkansas State (55-40) and South Alabama (19-9) at home.

This is a veteran bunch that returned 17 starters from last year and was the favorite to win the Sun Belt, but Georgia Southern just didn’t lose a conference game all season, and the Rajin' Cajuns never had the chance to face the Eagles to settle it on the field. I just believe all of these senior starters aren’t going to allow this team to have a letdown even though this is the fourth consecutive time they’ll be playing in the New Orleans Bowl.

It starts with senior quarterback Terrance Broadway, who leads an offense that is putting up 30.6 points and 417.9 yards per game this season. Broadway is completing 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,068 yards and 12 touchdowns, while also rushing for 646 yards and three scores. The one-two punch of Elijah McGuire (1,165 yards, 14 TD, 7.8/carry) and Alonzo Harris (737 yards, 12 TD, 4.6/carry) is tough to deal with.

I just have not been that impressed with Nevada (7-5, 4-4 MWC) this season. It went just 4-4 in a very weak Mountain West Conference and is not playing that great coming in. It has lost two of its last three games with its only win coming against 2-11 UNLV. It lost at home to Fresno State 20-40, getting outgained by 198 yards against a mediocre Bulldogs squad. It also lost at Air Force 38-45. Its seven wins this season have come against Southern Utah, Washington State, San Jose State, BYU, Hawaii, SDSU and UNLV.

Nevada’s defense is the reason it stands little chance in this game. It is giving up 28.2 points and 450.1 yards per game to rank 105th in the country in total defense. It hasn’t been able to stop the run or the pass. It is giving up 179 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry this season. It is also allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.7% of their passes for 271 yards per game. Broadway and company will have a field day against this defense.

Nevada is a run-first team that averages 215 rushing yards per game compared to 197 passing yards. That actually makes this a great matchup for the Rajin’ Cajuns because they have been solid against the run, but not very good against the pass. They are allowing just 147 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that average 168 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. So, they are an above-average defense against the run.

This game is going to come down to which team can stop the run because they both run it so frequently.  The edge obviously goes to the Rajin' Cajuns here as they give up just 147 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry, compared to the Wolf Pack, who give up 179 per game and 4.8 per carry against teams that average 167 per game and 4.3 per carry.

The Wolf Pack are 0-8 ATS vs. awful passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse over the last three seasons. This trend goes right in line with my thinking. They haven’t been able to take advantage of poor passing defenses in the past, and they won’t in this one, either. Lafayette is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a winning record. Nevada is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six bowl games.

Mark Hudspeth is 15-6 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is 9-1 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is 3-0 in bowl games as the coach of the Rajin' Cajuns.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl Saturday.

25* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/Grizzlies UNDER 194

The Chicago Bulls and Memphis Grizzlies are known for how hard they play defense.  It's a big reason why both rank near the top of their respective conference this year.  Chicago is 16-9 while Memphis is 21-4.  I look for a defensive battle between these teams Friday.

Both teams are among the top 10 in defensive efficiency this season, which has been a trend for these two for years.  Memphis ranks 7th in defensive efficiency, allowing 100.2 points per 100 possessions.  Chicago is 9th, allowing 101.5 points per 100 possessions.

Memphis plays at one of the slowest paces in the league as well, and playing at home, it will control the tempo tonight.  The Grizzlies rank 25th in pace at 94.1 possessions per game.  The Bulls are 15th at 95.8 possessions per contest.

It's no wonder that these teams always seem to play in low-scoring games when they get together.  Indeed, they have combined for 188 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  They have combined for 162, 186, 167, 151, 188 and 168 points in their last six meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 170.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

I believe a big reason this number has been inflated is because Memphis has played in some high-scoring games here of late.  Well, three of its last four games went to overtime.  They went to double-OT against Charlotte in a game that was tied 92-92 at the end of regulation.  They went to OT against Philadelphia.  They went to triple-OT against San Antonio in a game that was tied 92-92 at the end of regulation as well.

Chicago also went over the total last night in a 103-97 home win over New York.  Now, playing the second of a back-to-back tonight, the Bulls are strongly considering resting Derrick Rose as he is listed as questionable.  Whether he plays or not, I have no doubt this game goes under the posted total.

Chicago is 7-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams making at least 76% of their attempts this season.  The UNDER 6-0 in Bulls last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bulls are 23-8 to the UNDER off a home win over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 13-2 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last two years.  The Grizzlies are 20-5 to the UNDER in their last 25 off six or more consecutive wins.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +3

The Golden State Warriors just had their 16-game winning streak snapped.  Teams that have extended winning streaks come to an end the game before usually come out flat the next game because they are no longer focused in on keeping that winning streak going.  I look for the Warriors to drop their second straight game after falling to the Grizzlies on Tuesday.

Now, Golden State has to face a team that is playing as well as anyone in the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder have gotten back to 12-13 on the season and will be pushing hard to get to .500 tonight with another victory.

The Thunder have won seven straight games coming in with six of those coming by 9 points or more.  To no surprise, this streak started just about when both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the lineup.  Now, the Thunder are at full strength and a very dangerous team that should not be an underdog to almost anyone.

Westbrook is averaging 27.8 points on 50.9 percent shooting in nine games since returning from a fractured right hand.  Durant is still rounding into his superstar form, averaging 21.5 points in eight games since his debut from a fractured right foot.

While the offense has been superb in scoring at least 103 points in eight of their last nine games, the defense has been very good as well.  The Thunder are giving up 93.1 points per game and 40.2 percent shooting during their seven-game winning streak.  They have taken 13 of their last 18 meetings with the Warriors.

Oklahoma City is 18-6 ATS In its last 24 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game.  Golden State is 14-27 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference.  Oklahoma City is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. NBA Pacific division opponents.  The Thunder are 5-0 ATS In their last five games overall.  OKC is 7-1 ATS In its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  OKC is 4-1 ATS in its last five visits to Golden State.  Roll with the Thunder Thursday.

15* Titans/Jaguars AFC South Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5

This is a matchup between two of the worst offenses in the NFL Thursday night as the Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Tennessee Titans in an AFC South rivalry game.  I look for the defenses to dominate this contest, especially with how familiar these foes are having to play each other twice a season.

The first meeting was a defensive battle as well.  The Titans beat the Jaguars 16-14 at home for 30 combined points.  It was the second straight really low-scoring meeting in this series after they combined for 36 in their final showdown in 2013.  Six of the last nine meetings between these teams have seen 40 or fewer combined points.

Jacksonville ranks last in the league in scoring offense (15.1 points/game) and 31st in total offense (293.7 yards/game).  Tennessee ranks 29th in the league in scoring offense (16.5 points/game) and 29th in total offense (307.9 yards/game).  As you can see, both offenses have been among the worst in the NFL in 2014, and that will continue tonight.

Tennessee is down to its third-string quarterback in Charlie Whitehurst with both Jake Locker and Zach Mettenberger out with injuries.  Look for a conservative game plan for Whitehurst, who is 1-2 as a start this year.  One of those starts came against Jacksonville in the first meeting.  He led the Titans to just 290 total yards and 16 points in the win, but did not commit a turnover.

The Jaguars have actually been playing some pretty good defense here of late. They held the Giants to 329 total yards, the Texans to just 304 total yards, and the Ravens to just 312 total yards in their last three games, respectively.  It took Baltimore forever to finally pull away for a 20-12 win over Jacksonville last week because of how well the Jaguars' defense was playing.

The Titans came through with one of their best defensive efforts of the season last week.  They held the Jets to just 277 total yards in their 16-11 home loss.  Their defense certainly has the Jaguars figured out as they have held them to a combined 30 points (15.0 points/game) in their last two meetings.

Jacksonville is 6-0 to the UNDER in its last six home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse.  The Jaguars are 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine home games vs. poor defensive teams that give up 350 or more yards per game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Titans last four December games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four December games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Jacksonville.  These five trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Knicks/Bulls TNT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 194.5

The Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  The books have set the bar way too high in this game, and we'll take advantage as this is my strongest totals play on TNT for the month of December.

Both teams like to play at slow paces, which favors the UNDER here.  New York ranks 29th in the NBA in pace at 92.1 possessions per game.  Chicago ranks 13th in pace at 96.0 possessions per game.  The Knicks average a woeful 93.6 points per game as they continue trying to learn the Triangle Offense.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Bulls and Knicks have combined for 189 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They combined for 184, 189, 199, 161 and 163 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 179.2 points per game, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

Both teams have been pretty good defensively this year as they each allow less than 100 points per game.  Chicago's defense gets a big boost tonight as both Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah are expected to play.  Noah has missed the last four games with an injury.

Chicago is 9-1 to the UNDER versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game on the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Bulls last five vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Bulls last 13 when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 37-18-2 in Bulls last 57 Thursday games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Nets/Raptors ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +11

The Toronto Raptors are way overvalued right now because they own the best record in the Eastern Conference at 19-6.  They now find themselves favored by double-digits for only the fifth time this season against the Brooklyn Nets tonight, which is way too much.

Toronto hasn't been as dominant of late because it has been without its second-leading scorer in DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg) for the last 10 games.  It has gone just 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  This team just isn't as good without DeRozan in the lineup.

Yes, I know the Nets will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after losing 91-95 to Miami yesterday, but I'm not too concerned about it.  They had two days off prior to that Miami game to rest.  Plus, this is a National TV game on ESPN, so they will be motivated to push through whatever fatigue they are feeling.

The Nets have actually played their best basketball on the road this season, going 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS.  They have only been beaten twice on the road by more than 10 points on the road three times all year.  They stayed within 10 of Phoenix, Golden State and Portland to name a few of their solid road performances.  The beat the Hornets 114-87 in their last road game.

Brooklyn beat Toronto in the playoffs last year in seven games and has won five of the last eight meetings overall.  In fact, Brooklyn has not lost to Toronto by more than 8 points in any of their last nine meetings.  That's a perfect 9-0 system backing the Nets pertaining to this 11-point spread.

The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The Nets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings in Toronto.  These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Brooklyn.  Take the Nets Tuesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska-Omaha -3.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets along the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyus (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd.  It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss.  Then, at home against Nevada, it rolled to a 78-54 home victory as a 5.5-point favorite.

Carter (16.0 ppg, 3.1 apg, 3.1 rpg)) and Patterson (13.7 ppg, 4.9 apg, 4.0 rpg) have really stepped up their games this year.  Tre-Shawn Thurman (10.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg) has provided a boost that was unexpected coming into the year.  Rostampour (9.9 ppg, 7.6 rpg) and White (7.5 ppg, 11.0 rpg) have been forces down low.  Tyus (9.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg) has continued his solid play off the bench.

The Mavericks have played a brutal schedule this year with six road games against only three home games and have done a very good job of getting to 4-5 with this gauntlet.  They are just 1-5 on the road, but 3-0 at home where they are outscoring teams by a whopping 25.4 points per game.

Northern Colorado has been terrible on the road and great at home as well.  It is 4-0 at home with its four wins coming against some terrible teams in Black Hills State, Colorado Christian, Stetson and Florida A&M.  It is 0-4 on the road where it is getting outscored by an average of 15.5 points per game.  It lost at New Mexico State 65-86 and at Colorado 68-93.

Nebraska-Omaha is a perfect 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.  Northern Colorado is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Bears are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -1

The Phoenix Suns are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight coming in with five of those losses coming by 6 points or less.  This team is much better than their 12-14 record to this point in the season, and they will be laying it all on the line to try and end this skid.

The Suns couldn't ask for a much better opponent to put an end to this losing streak.  They'll be facing a Charlotte Hornets team that is just 6-18 on the season, and one that has lost 13 of their last 15 games coming in.  Their only wins came at home against lowly New York and Boston.

Phoenix has owned Charlotte in recent meeting as well.  It is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with the Hornets.  All five of those victories came by 6 points or more as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 199-127 (61%) ATS since 1996.

The Suns are 45-21-1 ATS in their last 67 games playing on 1 days rest.  Phoenix is 30-14-1 ATS in its last 45 games following an ATS loss.  Charlotte is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Hornets are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are surging since both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant returned.  After digging themselves an early hole, the Thunder (11-13) cannot afford to take games off the rest of the way if they want to make the playoffs.  That's why you know they are going to bring it every night, and they certainly have done that of late.

Indeed, the Thunder 6-0 in their last six games overall with the last four coming via blowout.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with a 13-point win over Milwaukee, a 9-point win over Cleveland, a 19-point win at Minnesota, and a 24-point win against Phoenix.

Sacramento is in shambles right now.  It has gone 2-8 in its last 10 games overall, which led to the firing of head coach Mike Malone.  This stretch has coincided with the loss of DeMarcus Cousins to a battle with viral meningitis.  The Kings fell to 2-7 without Cousins in a 95-90 home loss to four-win Detroit last time out.  Cousins remains out tonight.

Oklahoma City simply owns Sacramento.  The Thunder have won 11 consecutive meetings with the Kings, and dating back further they are 17-1 in their last 18.  I look for this domination to continue tonight as the Thunder roll to a blowout victory over the Kings.

The Thunder are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Sacramento is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games, and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games when playing on two days' rest.  The Kings are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* Alabama/Wichita State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Alabama +12.5

After going just 13-19 last year, the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They are off to a solid start at 6-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to nationally ranked Iowa State along with a very good Xavier team.

The reason I'm high on the Crimson Tide this year is because they return four starters from last season.  They are Shannon Hale (8.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), Levi Randolph (9.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Rodney Cooper (7.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Retin Obasohan (9.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg).

Randolph (17.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Cooper (13.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg) have taken their games to the next level this season.  Tulane transfer Ricky Tarrant (13.4 ppg) had 20 games of 20-plus points before coming to Alabama and has picked up right where he left off.

Wichita State is simply overvalued right now after making the Final Four last year and getting off to a 7-1 start this year.  That has been evident in its last two games as it beat Seton Hall 77-68 at home as a 12.5-point favorite, and Detroit 77-68 on the road as a 13-point favorite.  Now, we're getting another 12.5-point spread here, and Alabama is better than both Seton Hall and Detroit.

These teams met last December as well with Wichita State winning 72-67 on the road as a 1-point favorite.  That edition of the Shockers was much better than this one, while this edition of the Crimson Tide is much better than last year's.  Alabama is going to want some revenge on the Shockers in this rematch a year later.

Alabam  is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  The Crimson Tide are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  Alabama is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 12.5 to 18 points.  The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Alabama Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Grizzlies ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 203

This is an excellent matchup tonight between the top two teams in the Western Conference in Golden State (21-2) and Memphis (19-4).  I look for the intensity to be very high in this game, especially on the defensive end, given the caliber of this game and the fact that it will be nationally televised on ESPN.

After all, the reason these teams are in 1st and 2nd place are because of their defense.  Golden State ranks 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.2 points per 100 possessions.  Memphis ranks 7th, allowing 100.2 points per 100 possessions.

This is a contrast in styles as the Warriors like to push the tempo, while the Grizzlies like to slow it down.  Well, the home team almost always controls the tempo, so look for this game to be played at a snail's pace.  Memphis ranks 25th in the league in pace at 94.2 offensive possessions per game.

When you look at previous meetings between these teams and previous totals in this series, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated tonight.  Oddsmakers have set the totals for Memphis vs. Golden State games at 192.5 or less in each of their last seven meetings.  This total is set at 203 points.

It's also easy to see why this number is inflated when you consider how low-scoring this series has been.  Memphis and Golden State have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings.  They have combined for 193, 190, 169, 198, 192, 181, 198 and 192 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 189.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 203.

Another reason this number is inflated is because both Golden State and Memphis are coming off high-scoring games, but that was the result of overtime.  The Warriors beat the Pelicans without Anthony Davis 128-122 in OT last time out, while the Grizzlies have played back-to-back OT games against Philadelphia (120-115) and Charlotte (113-107).

Golden State is 20-9 to the UNDER after a combined score of 215 points or more over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 60-34 to the UNDER in its last 94 games off four or more consecutive wins.  The UNDER is 42-15 in Warriors last 57 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 40-19 in Warriors last 59 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -4.5

The Phoenix Suns are way undervalued right now due to their current five-game losing streak that has dropped them to 12-13 on the season.  Now, they are only 4.5-point home favorites against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight when they should be closer to double-digit favorites.

The Suns have played a tough stretch of games during this losing streak, and four of the five losses have come by 6 points or less.  They lost at Houston, at LA Clippers and at Oklahoma City.  They aren't all of a sudden a bad team due to this streak, they just have had some bad fortune.  The public perception on them is way down, and now it's time to back the Suns as they play an inspired effort at home tonight to put an end to this skid.

Milwaukee is actually overvalued right now due to its decent 12-12 start to the year.  While there's no question the Bucks are improved, they have no business only catching 4.5 points against one of the better teams in the Western Conference.  The Bucks have lost five of their last seven coming in.  They are just 5-8 on the road this season where they are giving up 103.5 points per game.

Phoenix has owned Milwaukee in recent meetings.  It is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Milwaukee overall with five of those victories coming by 9 points or more.  The Suns swept the season series with the Bucks last year, winning 116-100 at home and 126-117 on the road.  I like their chances of earning another blowout victory here tonight.

Milwaukee is in a letdown spot after beating the Clippers at home on Saturday, who were tired playing the second of a back-to-back.  Milwaukee is 4-14 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Bucks are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win.  The Suns are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Phoenix is 30-13-1 ATS in its last 44 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Suns Monday.

20* Saints/Bears ESPN Monday Night MASSACRE on New Orleans -3

These teams share identical 5-8 records. However, there is one distinct difference, and it’s the reason that I am taking the Saints Monday night. The Saints are tied for first place in the NFC South and are still fighting to make the playoffs. The Bears have already been eliminated from the playoffs as they trail the final two wild card spots by four games with only three to play. So, the Saints will be the more motivated team in this one, and I’ll side with them as a result.

Couple that motivation with the fact that the Saints are the better team statistically despite their identical 5-8 records, and it’s plenty of reason to lay the three points with the road favorite this week. Indeed, the Saints rank 9th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 22.3 yards per game on the season. Of the top 17 teams in yardage differential, only two have losing records. They are the Saints and the Redskins, who are both underrated teams.

Chicago is every bit as bad as its 5-8 record would indicate. It ranks 27th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 35.0 yards per game this season. It has really been beat up defensively. It allows a league-worst 29.1 points per game this season while ranking 28th in the NFL in total defense at 377.8 yards per game.

That’s bad news for the Bears considering they will be up against one of the league’s best offenses this week. New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense, averaging 421.0 yards per game. The Bears have allowed 34 or more points in four of their last six games overall. They gave up 51 to New England, 55 to Green Bay, 34 to Detroit, and 41 to Dallas. The only exceptions were games against terrible offenses in Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

The Bears have been decent offensively this year as they rank 18th at 342.8 yards per game. However, they just lost their best player on offense in Brandon Marshall to a season-ending injury, and Jay Cutler and company will suffer going forward as a result. Marshall has 61 receptions for 721 yards and eight touchdowns this season and is simply irreplaceable. The Saints will be able to key in on stopping Alshon Jeffery this week instead of having to try to contain both Marshall and Jeffery, which will be a much easier task.

New Orleans has actually been playing better on the road than at home here of late. It has gone 2-0 in its last two road games with wins at Carolina (28-10) and at Pittsburgh (35-32). Even in its road game prior to those two wins, it only lost at Detroit 23-24 after blowing a 23-10 lead over the final four minutes of the game. These last three road games are proof that you can put to rest the notion that the Saints can only win at home.

Drew Brees has led the Saints to wins in each of the last two meetings with the Bears.  They won 30-13 at home in 2011 and 26-18 on the road last year over Chicago.  Brees has completed 76.4 percent of his passes for 558 yards with five touchdowns without an interception in those two games, and figures to have another monster performance on Monday Night Football.

Plays on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, after the first month of the season are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  New Orleans is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its last game. Chicago is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 home games. The Bears are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 vs. NFC opponents. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss. The Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 December games.

Chicago is 0-8 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 7.0 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Bears are 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last three years.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Saints Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +7

The Orlando Magic have been a money-making machine for me here of late, and I'm going to continue to ride them because they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  That's especially the case in today's situation.

Orlando is a much better team than its 10-16 record would indicate.  It has gone 15-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  It has also gone 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games.   The Magic beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also topping Atlanta (100-99) at home.  They suffered close road losses to Golden State (97-98) and Atlanta (81-87), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this eight-game stretch.

The Magic just got back their leading scorer and rebounder in Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.7 rpg) after a five-game absence.  He returned in time to beat the Hawks on Saturday, and now he's back to full strength and the Magic should be an even more dangerous team going forward.  They also feel pretty good about themselves after Tobias Harris hit a game-winner at the buzzer to beat Atlanta.

While I like what I've seen from the Magic of late, this is more of a fade of Toronto than anything.  The Raptors are way overvalued due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference at 18-6.  Well, they have shown signs of slowing down here of late, going just 5-4 in their last nine games overall.  A lot of that has had to with an injury to second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg), who has missed the past nine games with a groin injury.

DeRozan will miss this game as well.  Without him, this roster is very thin.  The Raptors are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Plus, they went to overtime to beat New York on the road last night, and I look for them to come out tired and flat in this game against the re-energized Magic.  Orlando will be giving the better effort in this one, and it will allow them to stay within 7 points and possibly pull off the upset.

Plays on road teams (ORLANDO) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Orlando is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Orlando is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +7

The New York Knicks own one of the league's worst records at this point in the season at 5-20.  As a result, they are way undervalued right now.  I certainly do not believe they are one of the worst teams in the NBA, but they have simply been unlucky in close games this year.

Indeed, a whopping 13 of the Knicks' 20 losses this season have come by 7 points or less.  That is about as unlucky as it gets.  This team has not quit, however, as it is coming off a big win at Boston 101-95 on Friday to put an end to an extended losing streak.  I like its chances of pulling off the upset tonight as well.

At 17-6 on the season and with one of the best records in the NBA, the Toronto Raptors are clearly overvalued right now.  This combination of the Raptors being overvalued and the Knicks undervalued has created some massive line inflation in this game.  The Raptors should not be laying 7 points on the road to the Knicks.

New York won each of its final two meetings of the season with with the Raptors in 2013-14.  It won 108-100 as a 5.5-point road underdog, and 95-92 as a 6-point home dog.  It has actually taken three of its last five from Toronto.  The underdog is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - hot shooting team - three straight games making at least 47% of their shots are 92-52 (63.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Knicks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Samford +18

This play is more of a fade of Wake Forest than a play on Samford.  I simply do not believe the Demon Deacons should be favored by 18 tonight with the way they have played in 2014.

Wake Forest is in transition mode in its first year under Danny Manning.  It lost four players from last year's team that averaged from 6.9 to 10.7 points per game.  It did bring back three starters, but one of those is Madison Jones (3.3 ppg, 2.8 apg), who should not count as a returning starter.

The Demon Deacons are off to a 4-5 start this year.  Their four wins have come against UNC-Asheville, Tulane, Nicholls State and Mount St. Mary's.  They have been blown out by Arkansas (53-83), Minnesota (69-84) and NC State (65-78), while also suffering very bad home losses to Delaware State (65-72) and Iona (81-85).

Samford is off to a 3-7 start this season, but it has at least been competitive in terms of the point spread, going 5-3 ATS.  Wake Forest is just 1-4 ATS to compare.  I've seen enough from the Bulldogs to know that they can hang with the Demon Deacons in this one.

They have impressive road losses to Pittsburgh (56-63) as 31-point underdogs and to LA Tech (64-77) as 24-point dogs.  They also lost to CS-Northridge (72-79) as 10-point underdogs on a neutral court.  They last played on December 6th, so they will be well-rested and ready to go after having seven days in between games.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (SAMFORD) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 88-47 (65.2%) ATS since 1997. 

The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Samford is 5-0 ATS in its last five Sunday games.  Wake Forest is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Demon Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the Bulldogs.  Roll with Samford Sunday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +10

This line is clearly an overreaction for a couple of different reasons. The first being the results last week. The Seahawks earned an impressive 24-14 road win at Philadelphia, while the 49ers lost at Oakland 13-24 despite being an 8-point favorite in that game. So, the public perception is high on the Seahawks right now, while it’s very low on the 49ers. That has forced the oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be knowing that the betting public is going to be quick to back the Seahawks.

The other reason for this big spread is that the 49ers just lost to the Seahawks 19-3 at home two weeks ago. Obviously, that was not a good showing for the 49ers, but they are going to be playing desperate football Sunday because they know they likely have to win out to make the playoffs. These rivalry games are always played closer to the vest, and the 49ers will be out for blood in this game.

One thing that jumps out to me is the line on this game compared to the one in San Francisco.  The 49ers were 1-point favorites at home over the Seahawks, so when you factor in three points for home-field advantage, they should only be 5-point underdogs at Seattle in the rematch.  With this line being 10 instead, we are getting roughly 5 extra points of value on the 49ers.  That says it all right there.

Prior to that 19-3 win by the Seahawks, the previous two meetings in this series were decided by a combined eight points. The 49ers won 19-17 at home in 2013, and they also hung tough in a 17-23 road loss to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game last year. They actually led that game most of the way before blowing it in the fourth quarter, so they have proven they can hang with the Seahawks in Seattle. They hold a 5-4 edge over the Seahawks in their last nine meetings.

With a defense as good as the one the 49ers feature, they have a chance to be competitive in every game they play. They rank 3rd in the league in total defense, giving up just 308.5 yards per game on the season. Yes, their offense has not been up to par, but their defense is the reason why they have played in so many close games this year. Indeed, 10 of the 49ers’ 13 games this year have been decided by 11 points or less. They have only lost twice by more than 11 points all season.

The 49ers also have the formula for stopping the Seahawks.  First and foremost, you must slow down Marshawn Lynch and the rushing attack.  Well, the 49ers rank 7th in the league against the run, giving up just 97.2 yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  They held the Raiders to just 85 rushing yards on 31 carries last week and should be able to build off of that performance.

This is actually a letdown spot for the Seahawks. They are coming off their huge road win over the Eagles last week, and they have Arizona on deck next week with first place in the NFC West likely on the line. They also already beat the 49ers by 16, so they are going to be in a tough spot here mentally.

They won’t be as emotionally jacked up for this game as they were the first time they played the 49ers, or as much as they were against the Eagles, and as much as they will be next week against the Cardinals. It’s going to take 100% focus for the Seahawks to win this game by more than 10 points, and even that may not be enough against a 49ers team that will be out for revenge.  The Seahawks are almost overconfident right now, which will work against them.

Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) – revenging a loss against opponent, off a road loss are 75-35 (67.6%) ATS over the past 10 seasons.

San Francisco is a perfect 8-0 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons. The 49ers are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a poor passing defense that allows a completion percentage of 61% or better. The 49ers are 26-11-3 ATS in their last 40 games following a ATS loss. San Francisco is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 road games.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo Bills +5.5

The Buffalo Bills (7-6) have been fighting hard to make the playoffs here in recent weeks, and they have been playing their best football of the season as a result. They have won two of their last three games while going a perfect 3-0 against the spread. Their two wins came via the blowout as they dominated the Jets 38-3 on a neutral field. They also topped the Browns 26-10 at home. They outscored those two teams a ridiculous 64-13.

However, I was just as impressed with the Bills’ only loss during this stretch. They went into Denver last week and gave the Broncos a run for their money in a 17-24 road loss as 9.5-point underdogs. They actually outplayed the Broncos when you look at the box score. They outgained them 415-306 for the game, or by 109 total yards. They held Peyton Manning to just 14 of 20 passing for 173 yards and two interceptions without a touchdown pass. It was the first time in over 50 games that Manning failed to throw a TD pass.

A big reason I was on the Bills last week was because of their passing defense. Well, after shutting down Manning, they certainly showed that they can stop anyone’s passing game. That’s why you have to like their chances of slowing down Green Bay and its passing attack led by Aaron Rodgers, who is having an MVP-type season. I look for this Bills’ defense to be the reason that they not only stay within five points, but also the reason that they have a chance to win this game outright.

Buffalo ranks 4th in the league in scoring defense at 18.5 points per game while ranking 5th in total defense at 311.9 yards per game. The Bills have been elite against the pass, ranking 5th in the NFL at 212.8 yards per game allowed. The Packers, on the other hand, have been terrible defensively this season. They are giving up 23.4 points per game while ranking 26th in the league in total defense (374.4 yards/game).

Green Bay is 7-0 at home but just 3-3 on the road. It is actually getting outscored by 4.3 points per game away from home this season. It has only one win on the road by more than three points this year, and that was a 38-17 win at Chicago in a game that was nowhere near the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Packers were actually outgained by 138 yards by the Bears in that contest.

The Packers have been even worse defensively on the road. They are giving up 26.8 points and 399.8 yards per game away from home. Their offense has been held in check in road games, too, averaging just 343.0 yards per game. So, they are getting outgained by 56.8 yards per game away from home this year.

This is also a tough spot for the Packers. They are working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football against the Falcons last week. Their defense has to be tired, too, after surrendering 37 points and 465 total yards to the Falcons. Their stop unit spent most of the second half on the field and looked to be worn down as the Falcons scored 30 points after intermission.

Kyle Orton should have a big game against this Green Bay defense. Orton has stabilized the offense, going 5-4 as a starter this season. He is completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,355 yards with 14 touchdowns and only seven interceptions on the year. He threw for a season-high 355 yards against a very good Broncos defense last week.

Plays against road teams (GREEN BAY) – after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 89-47 (65.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a .500 or better road record. The home team is 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings in this series dating back to 1994.  Green Bay has never won in Buffalo in five trips there.  Take the Bills Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Browns PK

I don’t think the switch to Johnny Manziel at quarterback will have a huge impact on this game, but it was time to make the move nonetheless. Brian Hoyer had led just one touchdown drive in his last 29 series. Manziel will give the offense a spark this week, and the Browns have the element of surprise with him at quarterback over Hoyer. While I’m not sure this will be the right move for the team long-term, for one week I do believe it is the right move and will pan out.

This Cleveland offense will continue to perform at about a league-average level. It ranks 13th in the NFL in total offense at 353.8 yards per game. But the reason I’m siding with the Browns in this one is more due to their defense than anything. They are giving up a very respectable 20.8 points per game this season and will shut down this Cincinnati offense just as they did the last time these teams met up.

Cleveland (7-6) throttled Cincinnati 24-3 on the road back on November 6th. This game was every bit the blowout as the final score would indicate. The Browns outgained the Bengals 368-165 for the game, or by 203 total yards. Andy Dalton went just 10 of 33 for 86 yards with three interceptions in the worst performance of his career. He even had a healthy A.J. Green in that game, so there was no excuse. Green finished with three receptions for 23 yards.

That was a rare win for the road team in this series, too. Home-field advantage has been huge in this series over the past five-plus seasons. The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings. The Browns have won three of their last four home meetings with the Bengals with the last two coming via blowout. They won 17-6 at home last year and 34-24 at home in 2012. They have held the Bengals to 266 total yards or less in each of their last three meetings as this defense simply has Dalton and company figured out.

Another big reason why I’m backing the Browns in this one is because the Bengals are arguably the most overrated team in the NFL. Yes, they’re in first place in the AFC North with an 8-4-1 record, but they’re nowhere near as good as their record would indicate. Most teams would have a losing record with the numbers they have put up.

Cincinnati ranks 24th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 29.3 yards per game this season. Eight of the 10 teams ranked 23rd or worse in yardage differential have losing records this season, with only the Bengals and Cardinals as the exceptions. Arizona is also an overrated team.

The biggest culprit for this poor performance in yardage differential is the defense.  The Bengals are surrendering 22.2 points and 377.5 yards per game to rank a woeful 28th in the league in total defense.  They gave up 42 points and 543 total yards in a 21-point loss to the Steelers last week.  With a stop unit like that, the Bengals have no staying power and will be bumped from the AFC North lead by season's end.  It starts this week against a desperate Browns team fighting for their playoff lives.

Cleveland is 4-3 at home this season with two of its three losses coming by a combined three points to Baltimore (24-26) and Indianapolis (24-25).  That's how close this is to being a 6-1 team at home, so obviously, the Browns have played great at home this year.  They are limiting opponents to just 19.3 points per game at home in 2014.

Cincinnati is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival. The Bengals are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games off a loss by 21 or more points. The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Cincinnati.  Take the Browns Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Houston Texans +7

I really like the toughness that the Houston Texans (7-6) have shown over their last four games to put themselves in position to make the playoffs. They have won three of their last four and the three victories haven’t even been close. They went on the road and beat both Cleveland (23-7) and Jacksonville (27-13), while also topping Tennessee (45-21) at home. Their lone loss came to Cincinnati (13-22) in a game where it was announced after that Ryan Mallett was playing with a torn pectoral muscle.

This Houston defense has really come alive during this stretch. It has given up an average of just 15.8 points per game in its last four games as this is one of the most underrated stop units in the league. The offense has really received a boost from the return of Arian Foster from a two-game absence. He returned the last two weeks, and to no surprise, the Texans have scored an average of 36.0 points per game in their last two.

Foster is having a huge year despite missing three games due to injury. He has rushed for 1,028 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.0 per carry, while also catching 33 balls for 276 yards and four scores. This offense goes as he goes. The Texans are 6-4 in games that Foster has started this year. They rushed for 173 yards on the Jaguars last week and currently sit at 4th in the league in rushing at 137.1 yards per game.

The Colts have been extremely vulnerable defensively in 2014. They rank 18th in the league in total defense, allowing 23.6 points and 355.8 yards per game on the season. That’s not the sign of a team with staying power when it comes to the playoffs. They have not been very good against the run as they allow an average of 4.4 yards per carry.

Foster rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns on the Colts in their 28-33 home loss to Indianapolis back on October 9th. The Texans had their chances to win that game, but they committed two costly fumbles on their final two drives. Both drives ended in turnovers, and both were as they were trying to take the lead with a game-winning touchdown late. I believe they’ll be within a touchdown late in this one with a chance to win as well.

Houston has played its best football on the road this season.  It is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in seven road games.  It is scoring 23.9 points per game and giving up just 18.6 points per game on the road.  It is actually outscoring teams by an average of 5.3 points per game away from home.  That really just shows how tough the Texans are mentally to be able to go on the road in this league and play that well.

Adding extra motivation for the Texans is that they have not won in Indianapolis in 12 all-time meetings.  "We're well aware that we have not won there," Texans coach Bill O'Brien said. If that's not motivation, then I don't know what is.  Simply put, the Texans are going to be playing more inspired football this week than they have shown all season.

Turnovers could swing in the the Texans' favor in this one as well.  The Colts turned the ball over four times against the Browns last week in a fortunate 25-24 road win.  They have lost seven of 13 fumbles and had three passes picked off over the last three weeks.  They rely so much on Andrew Luck that their offense has become rather predictable, and opposing teams have been able to get pressure on him.  Houston has one of the best front fours in the league and will get plenty of pressure with J.J. Watt and company.

Plays on any team (HOUSTON) – after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 72-47 (60.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Houston is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -7

The New England Patriots are on a mission to get that No. 1 seed in the AFC because they know their chances of reaching the Super Bowl are greatly increased if the AFC runs through Foxborough. They even went out to San Diego as a team for the entire week after their loss to the Packers in Week 13 and made it a business trip. That experience with an entire week together will only grow the bond between these players. It was amazing to see the emotion the Patriots showed once they had beaten the Chargers 23-14; it was almost like they had just won the Super Bowl.

New England (10-3) has been playing as well as anyone for a couple months now. It has won eight of its last nine games overall with six of those wins coming by 15 points or more. That includes wins over the likes of Cincinnati (43-17) and Denver (42-20) at home, as well as road wins over Indianapolis (42-20) and Buffalo (37-22). The Patriots are scoring 35.4 points per game and allowing just 19.7 points per game in their last nine games, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 15.7 points per game during this stretch.

Miami has lost three of its last five games and has not played well at all over this span. It has been outgained in four of those five games, including by 123 yards in loss to Detroit, by 137 yards in a loss to Denver, and by 198 yards in a 15-point loss to Baltimore last week. It was even outgained by the Jets by 35 yards and was lucky to escape with a 16-13 road win in that contest thanks to a last-minute touchdown.

New England just held a high-powered San Diego offense to only 14 points and 216 total yards. That’s bad news for a Miami offense that has really hit the skids in recent weeks. The Dolphins have been held to 16 or fewer points in three of their last five games. They only managed 249 total yards against Baltimore, 291 total yards against New York, 228 total yards against Detroit, and 313 total yards against Denver in four of their last five games.

Tom Brady has a 45-7 career record in the month of December, which is the best of any quarterback to ever play the game. New England is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.4 points per game this year. It is putting up 35.7 points and 408.2 total yards at Gillette Stadium, while allowing just 17.3 points per game there. These two trends are simply too hard to ignore and would be foolish to bet against.

Plus, the Patriots want revenge on the Dolphins, so they certainly will not be looking past them.  The Patriots are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 games when revenging a same-season loss.  In their last 10 games in same-season revenge situations, they are 9-0-1 ATS while covering the spread by an average of 10.0 points per game.

The Dolphins are really hurting in the secondary right now, which could allow Brady to have a monster game against them. They just lost arguably their best player on D in safety Louis Delmas to a season-ending knee injury. Cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan and Jamar Taylor have been out since Week 11 and Week 13, respectively, and both are questionable to return this week. The loss of Delmas is huge, and if Finnegan and Taylor both don’t play, it would just be an added bonus.

While Brady has been tearing it up through the air, you might find that the Patriots dominate this game on the ground just as much.  That's because the Dolphins have been shredded up front defensively in recent weeks.  In their last three games, they allowed 201 rushing yards to the Broncos, 277 to the Jets, and 183 to the Ravens for an average of 220.3 rushing yards per game.

The Patriots are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60%.  New England is 6-0 ATS in home games against teams with winning records over the last two seasons, winning in these spots by 16.6 points per game. New England is 7-0 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons.  Add the 9-0 ATS trend on same-season revenge, and we have a perfect 22-0 system backing New England here.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +3.5

This is a classic home-and-home situation here between Orlando and Atlanta.  These teams played last night in Atlanta with the Hawks coming away with an 87-81 home victory.  I backed the Magic +8 with success in that game, and I'll turn around and back them again here.

You almost always want to take the team that lost the first game of a home-and-home situation in the second game no matter the location.  That's because the team that lost the first game is going to be highly motivated for revenge, while the team that won the first game finds it hard to be motivated to beat a team two days in a row.

Orlando is a team that is better than its 9-16 record would indicate.  It has gone 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  It has also gone 3-4 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.   The Magic beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also suffering close road losses to Golden State (97-98) and Atlanta (81-87), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this stretch.

Atlanta was a team that was clearly undervalued coming into the year.  But, after a 16-6 start and a current nine-game winning streak coming into this one, there's no question that the Hawks are overvalued right now.  They should not be laying any points to the Magic tonight.  All nine of the Hawks' wins during their streak have come against teams with .500 or worse records.

One key here is that Orlando is expected to have its best player back after a five-game absence.  Leading scorer and rebounder Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.7 rpg) has missed the last five games with a back injury, including last night's game, but he is listed as probable for this one.  He'll give this team a huge boost, especially since this is the second of a back-to-back situation.

The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Orlando is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The underdog is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Orlando Saturday.

20* CBB Mid-Major GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa +7.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 9-0 to this point in the season and have just recently moved into the Top 25.  That includes wins on a neutral court over VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42), as well as road win at Stephen F. Austin (79-77) and Denver (65-55).

Northern Iowa is one of the best defensive teams in the country.  It gives up just 55.2 points per game on 39.0% shooting.  It only turns the ball over 12 times per game, which is huge because VCU loves to press.  UNI's guards will be able to handle that press in this one.

It's clear that VCU is not the same team that it was a year ago.  It is clearly down this year at 5-3 while going 2-5 ATS.  It has some really bad losses along the way.  It lost to Villanova 53-77 on a neutral court, Old Dominion 67-73 on the road, and Virginia 57-74 at home.  It is simply overvalued due to what it has done in the NCAA Tournament in the past.  This may not be a tournament team in 2014-15.

Last year, Northern Iowa had a worse team than VCU but won 77-68 at home despite being a 5-point underdog.  It shot 53.1% from the field and held the Rams to just 36.9% shooting.  It did turn the ball over 16 times, but that's not a bad number against this VCU defense.  Also, with all five starters back, the Panthers know what to expect from the Rams.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (N IOWA) - after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 15 points or more are 66-31 (68%) ATS since 1997.  Northern Iowa is 9-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 29-12 ATS in road games off four or more consecutive wins.  VCU is 1-9 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -3.5

Yes, this game between Kansas and Utah is being played on a neutral court.  However, it won't be neutral at all as it will be played inside the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO.  It will certainly be a pro-Kansas crowd to say the least, and these players are used to this venue considering it's where the Big 12 Tournament is played.

I really like what I've seen from this Kansas team since an ugly loss to Kentucky back on November 18th.  It has gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall as this young team has grown up on a hurry.  All six wins came by 5 points or more, including road wins over Michigan State (61-56), Rhode Island (76-60) and Georgetown (75-70), as well as a home win over Florida (71-65).

Utah is definitely a team to keep your eye on in terms of making the NCAA Tournament with four starters back this year.  It is off to a 7-1 start, but it has done most of its damage at home.  It is just 1-1 on the road with a loss at San Diego State and a win over BYU.  It is being overvalued right now because it also beat Wichita State (69-68) by a single point at home.

The Utes only currently have three starters back because their second-leading scorer in Jordan Loveridge (11.5 ppg) is out for a month with a knee injury.  His scoring is going to be hard to replace because he helps the offense space the floor so well as he shoots 50.0% from 3-point range.  Without Loveridge, the Utes stand no chance of keeping this 'road' game close against Kansas.

Utah is 22-51 ATS in its last 73 road games off two straight games where it had five or fewer steals.  The Jayhawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off two straight wins by 6 points or less.  Kansas is 8-1 ATS versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 foes.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  These last three trends combine for an 18-1 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Saturday.

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 59.5

I believe the books have set a very good spread in this game.  They know that the betting public is going to be on Navy due to its 12-game winning streak in this series, so they set the spread above two touchdowns to try and slow down the money coming in on the Midshipmen.  While I still believe Navy is probably the right side, I find more value in backing the total in this game.

Army and Navy are very familiar with one another.  They both run the triple-option offense, so neither team is going to be surprised by what they see.  That's why year after year the final combined score usually finishes UNDER the number.  Another reason for this is the fact that both teams have had a ton of time off in between games, which helps them in preparation.  Navy last played on November 28th, while Army last played on November 22nd.

Indeed, this has been a very low-scoring series.  The UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings between Army and Navy.  They have combined for 41, 30, 48, 48, 20, 34, 41, and 40 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  As you can see, they have not topped 48 combined points in any of those eight meetings.  In fact, they are averaging a combined 37.8 points per game during this stretch, which is roughly 22 points less than this posted total of 59.5.

When two teams run the ball as much as these two do, the clock is going to be moving continuously, which aids the under.  Army averages 56 rush attempts and 9 pass attempts per game, while Navy averages 56 rush attempts and 10 pass attempts per contest.  So, Army runs the ball 86% of the time, while Navy runs the ball 85% of the time.  There will be very few incomplete passes in this game to stop the clock.

Army is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  Navy is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% over the last three years.  The Midshipmen are 10-1 to the UNDER versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  Navy is 6-0 to the UNDER off a road win over the last three years.  Throw in that the UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings, and these five trends combine for a 38-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Note - I released this play on Monday knowing that the total in Army/Navy was going to go down from the 59.5-point opener.  I still recommend a bet on the UNDER at anything 55 or above.  Thanks.

15* Warriors/Mavs NBA Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +1.5

The Golden State Warriors are the single-most overrated team in the NBA at this point in the season because they own the league's best record at 17-2.  Now, they actually find themselves favored on the road against one of the best teams in the West in Dallas.

Dallas is among the league's best in field-goal shooting at 48.2 percent and averages an NBA-best 110.5 points.  It has scored at least 105 points in nine straight games while going 7-2 during this stretch.

The Mavericks are 9-3 at home this season where their 115.5 points per game scored leads the NBA as well.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as well.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings.

Dallas is 36-18 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 53-24 ATS in their last 77 games following a ATS loss.  Dallas is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Mavericks Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans look to get back to .500 as they host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in a big game for them.  I look for the Pelicans to take it to the Cavaliers, who have nothing left in the tank right now.

Cleveland will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  The Cavaliers exerted a lot of energy last night in a 94-103 loss to the Thunder.  They were down 20 in the second half and fought back to get within 3, but ultimately lost by 9.

Plus, Lebron James missed last night's game with knee soreness.  He is questionable to play tonight as well.  Whether he plays or not I still recommend a play on the Pelicans, but if he doesn't that will only be an added bonus.

The Pelicans have had the Cavaliers' number in recent meetings.  They have won six of their last eight meetings with Cleveland.  Home-court advantage has also been big in this series.  The home team has won four of the last five meetings with the only exception being a Pelicans' 100-89 road win last year.

The Pelicans are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  New Orleans is 6-2 at home this season, outscoring teams by 10.6 points per game.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +8

The Orlando Magic are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  It has gone 9-15 SU this season, but a very profitable 14-10 ATS as it has been very competitive in most of its game.  Eight of its losses have come by 8 points or less.

The Magic are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have gone 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games.  They beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also suffering a close road loss to Golden State (97-98), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this stretch.

Atlanta was a team that was clearly undervalued coming into the year.  But, after a 15-6 start and a current eight-game winning streak coming into this one, there's no question that the Hawks are overvalued right now.  They should not be laying 8 points to the Magic tonight.  All eight wins during their streak have come against teams with losing records.

Orlando split the season series with Atlanta last season while going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS.  Its two losses came by 3 and 10 points, while its two wins came by 17 and 7 points.  So, it actually outscored the Hawks in their four meetings last year.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The underdog is 15-6 ATS int he last 21 meetings.

Plays against home favorites (ATLANTA) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Friday nights are 80-42 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Orlando is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with winning records.  The Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5

The Brooklyn Nets are playing horrible right now amidst all of their trade rumors.  Nets' management has been open about trading Joe Johnson, Deron Williams and Brook Lopez to free up salary cap space.  They just traded Andrei Kirilenko and Jorge Guitierrez to the 76ers for Brandon Davies on Thursday.

Both Johnson and Lopez sat out a 105-80 loss to Chicago on Wednesday.  Both were expected to play coming into that game, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit if each just decided to sit amidst the trade rumors.  This is a team in serious disarray right now, and one that cannot be trusted to bring their "A" game to the floor on a nightly basis until these trade rumors blow over.

The Nets have been an absolute embarrassment here of late, which is probably what prompted the rumors.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, with home losses to Atlanta by 23 and Cleveland by 22, as well as that road loss to the Bulls by 25.  So, they have been outscored by a combined 70 points in their last three and by an average of 23.3 points per game.

The 76ers, meanwhile, have shown a lot of fight here of late.  They have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall to make backers a lot of money.  Six of their last nine games have been decided by 8 points or less.  That includes narrow losses to some good teams in Dallas (103-110) and San Antonio (103-109).

This has been a very closely-contested series here of late.  The 76ers are 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Nets as they have played them very tough.  In fact, each of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by 8 points or less, and by a combined 19 points total.  The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Brooklyn.

Brooklyn is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four coming in.  The 76ers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The 76ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

15* Cardinals/Rams NFL Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 41

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between St. Louis and Arizona.  These are two of the best defenses in the NFL up against two of the worst offenses in the league.  I'll gladly side with the UNDER 41 points in this NFC West rivalry game.

St. Louis has shut out back-to-back opponents.  It is playing as well defensively as any team in the NFL right now.  It held Oakland to 244 total yards and Washington to 206 total yards.  Since Chris Long returned from injury, this stop unit has taken its game to the next level.

One of the most shocking facts about how well this defense is playing is that it has not allowed an opponent to run a play inside its own 20-yard line in three of its past four games. The Rams have now gone 128 minutes and 20 seconds without allowing an opponent to score. Since Week 7, the Rams have 34 sacks, which is the most in the league over that period of time.

Arizona ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 18.3 points per game.  It has allowed 19 or fewer points in five of its last six games overall.  It has been relying on its defense all season, and that stop unit is the only reason it has a 10-3 record right now.  It's certainly not because of the offense.

Arizona ranks 23rd in the league in total offense at 325.3 yards per game.  It has been even worse with Drew Stanton at quarterback here of late.  The Cardinals have been held to 18 or fewer points in each of their last four games.  They are averaging a mere 13.0 points per game in their last four.

St. Louis hasn't been any better offensively.  It ranks just 27th in the league in total offense, averaging only 317.2 yards per game this season.  Yes, the Rams have been putting up some decent scoring numbers here of late, but that has been mostly due to their defense creating easy opportunities.  Arizona only averages 1.0 turnovers per game and won't be giving up easy opportunities.

Yes, Arizona and St. Louis combined for 45 points in their first meeting in a 31-14 Cardinals victory at home.  However, the Cardinals scored two defensive touchdowns over the last 5 minutes to push the final combined score over the number.  The Rams managed just 244 total yards while the Cardinals had 335.  I'll take my chances that there won't be two defensive touchdowns in the rematch.

Arizona is 12-4 to the UNDER as an underdog over the last two seasons.  St. Louis is 6-0 to the UNDER in December games over the last two years.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Rams last 27 December games dating back further.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in this series.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Cavs/Thunder TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in what will be a raucous atmosphere for the home team.  This will be just the second home game all season where both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been healthy.

The first went very well as the Thunder dismantled the Bucks 114-101 on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.  I was on them in that game, and I'm on them again here for many of the same reasons.

The Thunder are now at full strength health-wise with Durant and Westbrook back.  Their time away allowed several role players on this team to grow their games, which will only make them stronger as a team going forward.  They have won five of their last six games coming in.

Cleveland is overvalued here due to its eight-game winning streak coming into this game.  This streak followed a 6-7 start.  It has mostly come against a very weak schedule as the wins have come against the Magic, Wizards, Pacers, Bucks, Knicks, Nets and Raptors (twice).  The Thunder are the best team they have played since a home loss to San Antonio on November 19th.

The Cavs are 14-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 after failing to cover the spread in 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  The Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  OKC is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

Note - I still recommend a play on the Thunder -6.5 with Lebron James out.

15* CBB In-State Rivalry Play on Colorado -5.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are a team I circled as one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into 2014-15.  They returned four starters from last year's team that made the NCAA Tournament, and they didn't even enter the season in the Top 25.

Colorado went 16-2 at home last season where it scored an average of 77.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting.  It has picked up right where it left off at home, going a perfect 5-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average of 17.8 points per game.  All five of its home wins have come by at least 9 points, including wins over Auburn (90-59), Drexel (65-48), Air Force (68-53) and San Francisco (72-55).

The Buffaloes have gotten great production from all four of their returning starters.  Jeff Scott (16.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.0 bpg) is a future NBA talent.  Askia Booker (12.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.9 apg), Xavier Johnson (11.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Wesley Gordon (6.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg) are the other three returning starters who have played well.

Colorado State is one of the most overrated teams in the country at this point in the season due to its 8-0 start to 2014-15.  Well, that 8-0 start has comea gainst an extremely soft schedule.  Its eight wins have come against Montana, Georgia State, Mercer, Missouri State, Pacific, UC-Santa Barbara, UTEP and Northern Colorado.

This will be the first true road game of the season for the Rams, which is a spot where teams usually tend to struggle.  Remember, this is a team that went just 16-16 last year, and I don't believe they are that much better with three starters back from that team.

Colorado is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Colorado State.  It has won 70-61, 90-83 and 75-56 in its last three home meetings, respectively, as all three have come by 7 points or more.

Colorado State is 2-12 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 0-8 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 3-12-1 ATS int heir last 16 non-conference games.  Colorado State is 5-21-2 ATS in its last 28 games following a win.  The Buffaloes are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Colorado State is 5-16 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Take Colorado Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -3

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 8-0 to this point in the season and have just recently moved into the Top 25.  That includes wins on a neutral court over VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42), as well as a road win at Stephen F. Austin (79-77).

Northern Iowa is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and defense travels with you.  It is giving up just 55.2 points per game on 38.1% shooting.  It is scoring a mediocre 67.7 points per game, but has been efficient in making 46.1% of its shots.

Denver is improved as well off a 16-15 campaign last year with four returning starters this year.  However, it is just 4-3 to start the season with its four wins coming against Idaho State, Coppin State, New Orleans and Texas A&M Corpus Christi. 

The Pioneers have been blown out against the three best opponents they have played in St. Mary's (62-78), Belmont (57-78) and Wyoming (42-68).  If they can't hang with those teams, they stand little chance of keeping this game close against the Panthers tonight.

Northern Iowa is 8-1 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 road games following four or more consecutive wins.  Denver is 6-17 ATS off a non-conference game over the last three years.  Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Pioneers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with Northern Iowa Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +5

I really like the mental and physical state of the Orlando Magic coming into this one.  They have had three days' rest since last playing on Saturday and will be well-rested and ready to go.  This extra time has allowed their best player, Nikola Vucevic, to get healthy.

Vucevic has missed the last four games, but he's probably to return tonight.  He and the rest of these players are going to want revenge after losing the first two meetings of the season with the Washington Wizards by a combined 12 points.  They lost 98-105 on the road and 93-98 at home.

Washington, on the other hand, will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team that it has already beaten twice.  That's especially the case with a bigger game against the Clippers on deck.  Plus, the Wizards are the more tired team as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  That includes a double-OT win over Boston (133-132) at home Monday.

Orlando has been playing well of late even without Vucevic.  It has gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  It went on the road and beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96), while also suffering a one-point loss at Golden State (97-98), which currently owns the league's best record.

The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.