15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Falcons +10.5

I always like fading teams that won the Super Bowl the previous year because it's so hard to repeat.  There tends to be a hangover effect, too.  Same can be said for Super Bowl losers.  I successfully faded both the Rams and Bengals last week as they were the Super Bowl winner and loser, respectively, and both had no shows in Week 1.

Now everyone expects the Rams to bounce back in Week 2, but I'm not buying it.  The offseason losses were huge for the Rams as they parted ways with LB Von Miller, WR Odell Beckham Jr, WR Robert Woods, G Austin Corbett and OT Andrew Whitworth.  The loss to Whitworth cannot be overstated as he was the leader on this offense.  Tackle Joe Notebloom, who replaced Whitworth, is banged up and questionable.

Matthew Stafford suffered an elbow injury that kept him out of training camp and was clearly rusty in the opener.  He threw three interceptions and was sacked seven times by the Buffalo Bills in the 31-10 loss.  They offensive line got annihilated.  Stafford didn't have any chemistry with anyone other than Cooper Kupp.  And keep in mind the Bills committed 4 turnovers and STILL won by 21 points.

The Rams may be better this week, but asking them to beat the Falcons by double-digits is asking too much.  Atlanta deserved to beat New Orleans in the opener, but lost on a last-second field goal by a final of 27-26.  I loved their balance on offense as they racked up 416 total yards on a very good New Orleans defense.  They rushed for 201 yards, and Marcus Mariota had a clean pocket the entire game and threw for 215 yards while also rushing for 72 yards.

I'm just going to keep fading this Rams team until proven otherwise as I think they are being priced like one of the top teams in the league when in reality they are down this season compared to last year when they won the Super Bowl.  They are also fat and happy and won't be as motivated as they were last season.  The Falcons will come back hungry after blowing that big lead to the Saints last week.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* AL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +178

The Boston Red Sox have realized they won't be making the postseason here down the stretch and are just playing out the string.  The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 games overall and have no business being a -200 favorite over the Kansas City Royals today.

Nick Pivetta is 4-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in 15 home starts this season.  Pivetta has never beaten the Royals, going 0-1 with a 7.54 ERA and 1.954 WHIP In three career starts against them.  This is definitely more of a fade of Pivetta and the Red Sox than it is a play on Bubic and the Royals.

The Royals are 7-1 in their last eight Sunday games.  Roll with the Royals Sunday.

20* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Saints +3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are getting a lot of love for their 19-3 victory over the Dallas Cowboys.  That was more bad Dallas than good Tampa Bay.  The Bucs have a ton of injury issues early in the season, especially on offense that won't have Tom Brady hitting on all cylinders.

Brady missed a lot of training camp.  There are huge offensive line issues for the Bucs.  C Ryan Jensen is out with a knee injury, T Donovan Smith left with an elbow injury in the 3rd quarter against the Cowboys and is questionable, and backup rookie LG Wells has been terrible.  T Tristan Wirfs is questionable.  They are also without WR Chris Godwin after leaving the Cowboys game with a hamstring injury.  Both LB Leonard Fournette and WR Mike Evans are questionable, too.

The Saints are getting disrespected after needing a late comeback to beat the Falcons, 27-26 last week.  Jameis Winston was awesome with the game on the line, completing 13-of-16 passes for 216 yards and a pair of touchdowns to Michael Thomas in the 4th quarter alone.  Winston is now 6-2 as a starter for the Saints with a 16-to-3 TD/INT ratio.

The Saints simply own the Buccaneers and Brady.  The Saints are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Dennis Allen just had Brady figured out.  The Saints have gotten pressure on 32% of dropbacks by Brady, whereas he is only pressured 20% of the time against all other teams.  Brady averages just 3.8 yards per attempt when pressure.  There's no question the Saints are going to get pressure on Brady against this suspect, injury-ravaged Tampa Bay offensive line.

The Buccaneers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win by more than 14 points.  The Saints are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as underdogs.  New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Bet the Saints Sunday.

15* Patriots/Steelers AFC ANNIHILATOR on New England ML -130

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on the New England Patriots and to 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  The Patriots were much better than their 20-7 loss to the Dolphins would indicate in Week 1, while the Steelers were much worse than their 23-20 upset victory over the Cincinnati Bengals would suggest last week.

The Patriots were -3 in turnovers against the Dolphins last week, including a strip sack that was returned for a touchdown.  The Patriots were only outgained by 36 yards by the Dolphins and 0.2 yards per play.  Their defense played well in holding the Dolphins to 5.2 yards per play, but the offense wasted a lot of trips in Miami territory.

The Steelers had no business beating the Bengals, and I was on the Steelers last week.  They were outgained 432 to 267 by the Bengals in that game.  But the Bengals gave the game away as Joe Burrow committed five turnovers.  Despite the five turnovers, the Steelers still needed a blocked extra point on the final play of regulation and a missed FG in overtime to win that game.

Mitchell Trubisky was not very good as he went 21-of-38 for 194 yards.  This Pittsburgh offense is one of the worst in the league.  The defense suffered a big blow with the loss of TJ Watt late in the 2nd half of the game, and he is now out at least six weeks with a torn pec.  His loss cannot be overstated as he had 22.5 sacks last year and is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL.  Mac Jones will have a lot more time to survey the field without having to deal with Watt.

Bill Belichick off a loss is absolute gold and has been his entire coaching career.  Belichick is 61-37 ATS following a loss as the coach of New England.  Belichick is 12-3 ATS after scoring 9 points or fewer as the coach of the Patriots.  Belichick is 11-3 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival as the coach of New England.  Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS after being outgained by 100 yards or more last game over the last three seasons, coming back to lose by 11.8 points per game in this spot.  New England is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with the Patriots Sunday.

20* Fresno State/USC FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State +12.5

Jeff Tedford is back in the Valley after guiding the Fresno State Bulldogs to a Mountain West title in 2018 while going 12-2.  He inherits a very talented team, which made his decision to come back easy.  The Bulldogs have 15 starters back this year, including star QB Jake Haener, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.

Haener is coming off a season in which he completed 67.1% of his passes for 4,096 yards with a 33-to-9 TD/INT ratio in which he led the Bulldogs to a 10-3 season.  Two of the losses were by one score with a 24-31 loss at Oregon as 20-point dogs and a 24-27 loss at Hawaii.  They also upset another Pac-12 team in UCLA as 11-point road dogs.  So they have proven they can play with the big boys of the Pac-12.

They proved it again last week in a 32-35 loss to Oregon State.  They deserved to win that game as they racked up 492 total yards and outgained the Beavers by 94 yards.  That's an Oregon State team that is coming off a bowl season last year and is loaded again this year.  Oregon State crushed Boise State in the opener as well, so it was an impressive loss.

The Bulldogs will have no problem getting back up off the mat this week to face USC.  Haener is pissed his wasn't recruited by USC and will take it out on them.  USC is getting a lot of love after opening 2-0 SU & and 2-0 ATS with blowout wins over overmatched opponents in Rice and Stanford.

Both games were closer than the final scores.  USC is +8 in turnover differential through two games.  The Trojans had three interceptions returned for touchdowns against Rice.  Their 41-28 win over Stanford was much closer than that as Stanford turned it over four times.  Fresno State is better than Stanford with a lot more team speed.  They can match the Trojans score for score on offense and keep up with their athletes at WR defensively.  Stanford and Rice could not match their foot speed.

Fresno State is now 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 road games.  Fresno State is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss.  Plays on any team (Fresno State) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-28 (71.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Fresno State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -2.5

The Maryland Terrapins are a team on the rise in the Big Ten.  They finally made a bowl game for the first time since 2016 last year and crushed Virginia Tech 54-10 to improve to 7-6 on the season.  Now they enter Year 4 under Mike Locksley, have some chemistry finally, and have his best team yet with 16 returning starters.

The offense is loaded with nine returning starters and that has been on display in the first few games this season.  The Terrapins have averaged 43.5 points and 532.5 yards per game in crushing both Buffalo and Charlotte.  Junior QB Taulia Tagovailoa is completing 78.5% of his passes for 681 yards with four touchdowns and only two interceptions while averaging 10 yards per attempt.  He is one of the best QB's in the country, and he has one of the most talented WR's corps in the country in Jarrett, Jones and Copeland who have combined for 24 receptions, 387 yards and four touchdowns.

SMU has also blown out a pair of overmatched opponents in North Texas 48-10 and Lamar 45-16.  They are playing under a first-year head coach in Rhett Lashlee, so they were fortunate to get a few cupcakes to start.  I don't expect them to handle this huge step up in class well.  It will be a hostile atmosphere as this will be a night game in College Park at 7:30 EST Saturday night.  Fans are more excited about the Terrapins than they have been in a long time, so it should be a great atmosphere.

I'm shocked oddsmakers are calling these even teams or saying SMU would be favored on a neutral even when you factor in home-field advantage.  Maryland should be closer to a 7-point favorite at home in this matchup.  SMU is 19-34 ATS in its last 53 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Mustangs are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 road games after scoring 37 points or more in their previous game.  SMU is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.

Plays on home favorites (Maryland) - in a game involving two dominant teams that have outgained their opponents by 1.2 yards per play or more, after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in two consecutive games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Phillies/Braves OVER 7.5

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves have two of the best lineups in the National League.  They should easily combine for 8 runs or more tonight to cash this OVER ticket.

Aaron Nola has not been sharp of late, going 0-1 with a 6.39 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in his last three starts.  Nola has allowed 9 earned runs and 4 homers in 13 innings in his last two starts against the Braves this season.

Jake Odorizzi is the weak link in Atlanta's rotation.  He is 5-5 with a 4.15 REA and 1.281 WHIP in 18 starts this season.  Odorizzi is 0-1 with a 9.52 ERA and 2.116 WHIP in two career starts against the Phillies as well.

The OVER is 7-2-1 in Phillies last 10 road games.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.  The OVER is 33-16-5 in Braves last 54 vs. NL East opponents.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Toledo +32

Ohio State has not been impressive at all this season.  I successfully faded them with Notre Dame +17 in the opener in their sloppy 21-10 victory.  That win looks even worse now after Notre Dame was just upset by Marshall last week.

I wish I would have faded the Buckeyes again last week as they failed to cover as 44.5-point favorites in a 45-12 win over Arkansas State.  I won't make that same mistake here and I'll back Toledo catching 32 points against the Buckeyes.  This is a flat spot for Ohio State with the Big Ten opener against Wisconsin on deck next week.  I think they just want to get out of here with a win and won't be worried about getting margin.

I don't think they can get margin on this Toledo team even if they tried.  This is an underrated, loaded Toledo team that returned 15 starters this season.  Toledo went 7-6 last year with five losses by 7 points or fewer.  That's how close they were to being 12-1.  That included a 3-point loss at Notre Dame as 17-point underdogs.

The Rockets are consistently one of the best teams in the MAC and I believe they are the top team this season, and it's not really even close.  They have handled their business in winning their first two games in blowout fashion while outscoring a pair of overmatched opponents 92-10.  This team will relish the opportunity to face a Big Ten team in Ohio State in their home state.  This is essentially their National Championship game.  

We saw how they handled this type of game last year with a 3-point loss at Notre Dame.  The Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Ohio State is once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week due to that No. 3 National ranking.    They will get more of a fight from Toledo than they bargained for this week.  Roll with Toledo Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kansas +9

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

Last week Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against Pitt in their opener.  I think the Jayhawks will give the Houston Cougars a run for their money and likely improve to 3-0 with another upset in Week 3.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 55.5 points per game, 461.0 yards per game and 8.2 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 345.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 249 rushing yards per game and 7.7 per carry.  They are also completing 70.8% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

Houston came into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country after going 12-2 last year.  They were extremely fortunate to have that record as they went 4-0 in one score games.  They lost by 15 to Cincinnati and by 17 to Texas Tech, the two best teams they faced.  I have not been impressed at all with Houston as they have lost the stats in each of their first two games and should be 0-2.

Houston managed just 346 total yards and was outgained by 95 yards by UTSA in a 37-35 (OT) victory in their opener as 3.5-point favorites.  Their luck ran out last week as they lost 30-33 (OT) to Texas Tech as 3.5-point underdogs, getting outgained by 115 yards and managing just 355 total yards of offense.  

Those are two bad defensive teams in Texas Tech and UTSA, so averaging just 350.5 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play against them is terrible.  QB Clayton Tune isn't as good as he gets credit for, and they are only rushing for 3.2 yards per carry.  Now the Cougars are gassed after playing two straight OT games and won't have much left in the tank for Kansas this week.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas) - a bad team from last season that was outscored by 17 or more points per game are 36-12 (75%) ATS since 1992.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Cougars are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win.  Take Kansas Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on UL-Monroe +49.5

This is a terrible spot for the Alabama Crimson Tide.  They are coming off a 20-19 win at Texas last week in what was the biggest game in college football.  Now they have their SEC opener on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Crimson Tide.  Nick Saban is the king of just trying to get through these games and taking the air out of the ball in the second half.  He isn't going to be trying to beat UL-Monroe by 50-plus, which is what it's going to take to cover this massive spread.

We have a good data point here with UL-Monroe losing 52-10 to Texas in the opener, or by 42 points.  Texas obviously took Alabama to the wire and would have won if their starting QB didn't get hurt, and had a few calls not gone Alabama's way.  It's worth noting Texas was fortunate to score 52 points as LA-Monroe actually held them to just 383 total yards.

Monroe came back last week and beat a very good FCS opponent in Nicholls State 35-7 as 4.5-point favorites, covering by 23.5 points.  They racked up 434 yards on Nicholls State and outgained them by 124 total yards.  They were only outgained by 124 yards by Texas, so it's pretty impressive they are even in the yardage battle on the season despite playing a team the caliber of Texas.

Of course, we saw last year what the Warhawks were capable of.  They pulled off three huge upsets over Troy 29-16 as 23-point dogs, over Liberty 31-28 as 33-point dogs and over South Alabama 41-31 as 13-point dogs.  They also took Sun Belt champ Louisiana to the wire in a 16-21 loss as 21-point dogs, and only lost 14-27 at LSU as 29-point dogs, a fellow SEC team with Alabama.

Now the Warhawks are in the second year in Terry Bowden's systems and he is doing a good job of recruiting here and trying to turn this program around.  Eight starters are back on offense, and the defense has played very well thus far.  QB Chandler Rogers got his feet wet as a freshman last year with a 9-to-3 TD/INT ratio and 367 rushing yards in six starts.  

He has been superb thus far, completing 77.3% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt in two starts in 2022, while also rushing for 63 yards and a score as a dual threat.  This guy can help the Warhawks move the ball and extend drives and burn clock against this Alabama defense.  And like I said, Alabama isn't going to run up the score as Saban has respect for Bowden.

UL-Monroe is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU win by more than 20 points.  Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. Sun Belt opponents.  The Sun Belt rolled last week, going 11-3 ATS which included upsets by Appalachian State over Texas A&M, Marshall over Notre Dame, Georgia Southern over Nebraska and South Alabama over Central Michigan.  This is likely the most underrated conference in the country.  Roll with Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on New Mexico State/Wisconsin UNDER 46

Jerry Kill is a first-year head coach at New Mexico State.  He has always been a conservative head coach focusing on defense and ball control, and that is clearly is MO here at New Mexico State thus far.  Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  

Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They managed just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

New Mexico State proceeded to get shut out 38-0 by Minnesota in their second game.  The Aggies only managed 81 total yards against the Golden Gophers.  Last week they played a bad UTEP team and lost 13-20 as the offense was held in check once again, but the defense showed what it was capable of in limiting the Miners to 307 total yards.

The Badgers led the nation last year in holding their opponents to 150 yards per game below their season average and finished allowing 16.2 points per game and 239 yards per game.  They have now held their opponents to 17.4 points per game and 301 yards per game or fewer in six of the past seven seasons.  They are elite defensively once again in 2022.

After shutting out Illinois State 38-0 in the opener, the Badgers held the Washington State Cougars to just 17 points and 253 total yards last week.  But once again this season, the offense looks like a problem.  They were held to 14 points and committed three turnovers to get upset by the Cougars.  Wisconsin has only averaged 25.4 points per game and 25.1 points per game the past two seasons, respectively.  QB Graham Mertz is a massive disappointment.

For this game to go over the total, Wisconsin is going to have to do it all on their own.  They are 37-point favorites.  I expect them to shut out New Mexico State, and to not top 40 points themselves.  This is going to be very similar to Minnesota's 38-0 win over New Mexico State two weeks ago and stay UNDER the 46-point total.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Aggies last six non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Badgers last four games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Badgers last four non-conference games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Badgers last seven games following a loss.  Paul Christ is 11-3 UNDER off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Wisconsin.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Wisconsin) - an excellent defensive team from last season that allowed 285 or fewer yards per game, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Troy/Appalachian State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy +12.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Appalachian State Mountaineers.  They followed up their thrilling 63-61 loss to North Carolina in the opener with a 17-14 upset of Texas A&M as 18-point road underdogs last week.  They are feeling fat and happy after beating an SEC team, and they now overvalued as a result, which is a double whammy.  They also won't have much left in the tank for Troy after both games went to the wire.

Troy is no pushover.  I expect the Trojans to be one of the most improved teams in the Sun Belt this season with 18 starters back from a team that went 5-7 last year.  Only two of the losses were by more than two scores.

Troy covered the 21.5-point spread at Ole Miss in the opener in a 10-28 road loss.  They came back last week with a 38-17 win over Alabama A&M.  That was a 31-3 game before they called off the dogs.  QB Gunnar Watson is completing 70.4% of his passes for 626 yards with a 5-to-3 TD/INT ratio through two games and the offense is vastly improved.

Of course, the defense is what gets me the most excited about Troy.  They allowed just 337 total yards per game last season and brought back nine starters and eight of their top nine tacklers from that unit.  Holding Ole Miss to just 28 points is no small feat and shows what they are capable of.  I think they can hang with Appalachian State in a defensive battle this week, and I also kind of like the UNDER as a result, but decided to go with Troy instead due to the terrible spot for the Mountaineers.  Take Troy Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 8

When the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays get together, it tends to be a slug fest.  The OVER is 31-15-7 in the last 53 meetings, including 7-2-2 in the last 11 meetings in Toronto.  Amazingly, 19 of their last 22 meetings have seen 9 or more combined runs, making for a 19-3 system backing the OVER pertaining to today's total.  It should be more of the same Saturday between these two teams.

Kyle Bradish is 3-6 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  Bradish is 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA and 2.020 WHIP in four career starts against Toronto, allowing 14 earned runs and 3 homers in 17 1/3 innings.  He'll be opposed by Jose Berrios, who has struggled this season with a 5.07 ERA and 1.376 WHIP in 28 starts.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Nebraska FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +11

I love the spot for the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  Players and coaches alike finally can stop answering questions about Scott Frost and their poor play under him.  He has been fired, and the Huskers will have a breath of fresh air.  Look for them to get a one game boost at least and to finally play up to their potential and give Oklahoma a run for its money.

Of course, Nebraska should have beaten Oklahoma last year, which was yet another close loss for them.  They lost 23-16 as 22.5-point road underdogs.  They were only outgained by 24 yards by the Sooners.  It's tough to beat Nebraska by margin.  They went 3-9 last year, but all nine losses came by 9 points or less.  In fact, Nebraska hasn't lost any of its last 19 games by more than 9 points, making for a 19-0 system backing the Huskers pertaining to this 11-point spread.

Oklahoma is learning new systems under Brent Venables in their first year with the team.  Lincoln Riley took a lot of talent with him from Oklahoma.  The Sooners only brought back 10 starters this season.  They were fortunate to get a couple cupcakes to open the season in UTEP and Kent State, which they beat 45-13 and 33-3, respectively.  

This is a big step up in class for them and their first road game in a hostile atmosphere as Nebraska fans will be excited with a new head coach and the Sooners coming to town.  Nebraska has already been tested having to play Northwestern and an improved Georgia Southern team.  I think that loss to Southern last week has the Huskers undervalued this week.  Keep in mind this line was only Oklahoma -5 in the offseason, so we are getting at least 6 points of value.

Nebraska is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Huskers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games after a game where both teams scored 31 points or more.  The Sooners are 24-47 ATS in their last 71 games after allowing 17 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a SU win by more than 20 points.

Plays on any team (Nebraska) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma/Nebraska UNDER 66.5

These teams are familiar with one another after playing last year with Oklahoma winning 23-16 for just 39 combined points.  They are different teams this year, but the familiarity will favor the defense.  So will the forecast, which is calling for possible storms in the morning and 20 MPH winds.  This game will likely be played mostly on the ground as a result, which will keep the clock moving.

Oklahoma has changed philosophy this season under first-year head coach Will Venables.  The former Clemson defensive coordinator is already putting his imprint on this Oklahoma defense.  They have held UTEP and Kent State to just 8.0 points per game and 3.9 yards per play through two games.

At the same time, Lincoln Riley and his high-octane offense are gone.  He took many of his best players with him on offense to USC.  The Sooners have been a little more conservative on offense this season, averaging only 461.0 yards per game against two poor defenses in UTEP and Kent State.  They are going to be an UNDER team this season because oddsmakers keep setting their totals too high due to their past reputation.

Nebraska has faced three straight poor defenses in Northwestern, North Dakota and Georgia Southern.  They will finally meet some resistance on offense from this Oklahoma defense, which held them to 16 points and 384 total yards last year and is even better this year.  I think Nebraska's defense will play its best game as well now with Scott Frost gone.  They are a lot more talented on this side of the ball than they have shown this season.  They only gave up 22.7 points per game last season.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (Nebraska) - with a bad defense that allos 450 or more yards per game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in two consecutive games are 26-5 (83.9%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Huskers last 12 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Florida State/Louisville ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 56.5

Mike Norvell and Florida State have struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks in his three seasons here.  They have really struggled defending Louisville's Malik Cunningham.  Louisville won 48-16 two years ago and 31-23 last year.

Cunningham went 16-of-24 for 278 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 40 yards on seven carries against Florida State in 2020.  Last year, Cunningham went 25-of-39 for 264 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 56 yards on 14 attempts and two scores.  It will be more of the same here as this Louisville offense will do whatever they want on this FSU defense.

Conversely, Florida State is vastly improved on offense this season as they are familiar with Norvell's system now in Year 3.  The Seminoles brought back eight starters on offense, includinG QB Jordan Travis is is coming into his own in his junior season.  He has five of his top six receivers back from last year and four starters back along the offensive line.  

Travis did not face Louisville last year, so he will have the element of surprise.  It was McKenzie Milton, who was replaced by Travis due to his ineffectiveness.  This Louisville defense gave up 31 points and 449 total yards to a suspect Syracuse offense in the opener.  Travis and company can do the same.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with combined scores of 59 or more points in six of the eight meetings.  The OVER is 11-1 in Cardinals last 12 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on White Sox/Tigers OVER 7.5

The Chicago White Sox have scored a total of 53 runs in their last eight games overall for an average of 6.6 runs per game.  They are more than capable of covering this total on their own, but I have no doubt the Detroit Tigers will chip in some runs to help, too.

Lucas Giolito has been one of the most disappointing starters in all of baseball for the White Sox.  He is 10-9 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.489 WHP in 26 starts this season.  Giolito is 6-6 with a 4.58 ERA in 17 career starts against Detroit, including 1-1 with a 5.93 ERA in his last two starts against them this season while allowing 9 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings.

Matt Manning is 1-1 with a 7.82 ERA and 1.580 WHIP in his last three starts for the Tigers.  Manning has never beaten the White Sox, going 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.810 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He has allowed 15 earned runs in 21 innings in those five starts.

The OVER is 8-0 in Giolito's last eight road starts with a total of 7 to 7.5 runs.  The OVER is 9-1 in Giolito's last 10 Friday starts.  The OVER is 8-0 in Giolito's eight starts vs. teams that average 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game this season.  The OVER is 34-14-4 in the last 52 meetings in Detroit.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Blue Jays OVER 9

When the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays get together, it tends to be a slug fest.  The OVER is 31-15-6 in the last 52 meetings, including 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Toronto.  Amazingly, 18 of their last 21 meetings have seen 9 or more combined runs.  It should be more of the same tonight between these two teams.

Jordan Lyles is 10-10 with a 4.62 ERA and 1.462 WHIP in 28 starts this season, including 6-7 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.439 WHIP in 15 road starts.  Lyles has a 6.59 ERA and 1.829 WHIP in five career starts against the Blue Jays.  The OVER has gone 5-0 in those five starts.

Toronto hasn't listed a starting pitcher, but it's not going to matter.  If it's Yusei Kikuchi that would only be an added bonus.  Kikuchi is 4-7 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.518 WHIP in 20 starts this season.  He is also 1-4 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.619 WHIP in five career starts against Baltimore.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Chargers/Chiefs AFC West No-Brainer on Kansas City -3.5

The Kansas City Chiefs are loaded this season.  They beat Arizona 44-21 in Week 1 while outgaining them 488 to 282, or by 206 total yards.  And it was an even bigger blowout than those final stats would suggest.

The Cardinals were down 37-7 and scored two touchdowns in garbage time in the 4th quarter.  Their final three drives added 147 total yards to their final tally, so they only had 59 total yards when it was 37-7.  This might be the best defense the Chiefs have had under Andy Reid.

The Chargers were +3 in turnovers against the Raiders in Week 1 and still nearly didn't cover.  They won 24-19 only after stopping a 2-point conversion by the Raiders that allowed them to cover as 3.5-point favorites.  I think this Chargers team is talented, but this line is suggesting these teams are nearly even when you factor in home-field advantage, and that's just not the case.

Especially now with the Chargers likely to be without their top receiver in Keenan Allen, who suffered a hamstring injury against the Raiders and exited the game.  It's almost certain he won't be recovered in time for this game even though he's listed as questionable.  They will also be without TE Darnell Parham due to a hamstring injury and could be without CB J.C. Jackson, who also missed Week 1 with an ankle injury.

Los Angeles was outgained by the Raiders 5.7 to 5.5 yards per play.  Kansas City outgained Arizona 7.4 to 4.5 yards per play.  The Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win.  The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Chiefs Thursday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Reds/Cardinals OVER 8

The St. Louis Cardinals have scored at least 4 runs in seven of their last eight games overall.  The Cincinnati Reds have scored at least 3 runs in 13 of their last 16 games overall.  These teams should easily combine for more than 8 runs tonight.

Miles Mikolas has not been able to figure out the Reds.  He is 3-4 with a 5.45 ERA in 13 career starts against them, including 0-1 with a 9.65 ERA in his last two starts against them this season while allowing 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 1/3 innings.

Chase Anderson is 0-2 with a 7.87 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in three starts this season for the Reds.  One of those starts came against the Cardinals on August 29th when Anderson allowed 5 earned runs in 1 1/3 innings in a 13-4 defeat.

The OVER is 8-1-1 in Reds last 10 games when their opponent allowed 2 runs or fewer in their previous game.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in St. Louis.  The OVER is 5-1 in Cardinals last six games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The OVER is 8-3-1 in Cardinals last 12 home games.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -125

The Philadelphia Phillies have son five consecutive games and have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last seven games overall.  We are getting the Phillies at a great value against the Miami Marlins, who have scored 3 runs or fewer in 37 of their last 43 games overall.

Noah Syndergaard is 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.281 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  Syndergaard has owned the Marlins, going 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 14 career starts against them.

Pablo Lopez is 8-10 with a 4.10 ERA in 28 starts this season, 3-5 with a 5.13 ERA in 14 home starts, and 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA in his last three starts.  He just allowed 8 earned runs and 13 base runners in 3 2/3 innings to the Mets in his last outing.

Philadelphia is 21-4 in its last 25 games vs. NL teams that score 4 runs per game or fewer.  The Marlins are 15-40 in their last 55 games overall.  Miami is 6-24 in its last 30 home games.  Take the Phillies Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -123

The New York Yankees have turned things around and are back in position to clinch the AL East down the stretch.  They have gone 7-2 in their last nine games overall, including scoring a total of 27 runs in winning each of their last three games, so their bats are potent right now.

There was a terrible turnout by Red Sox fans for Game 1 of this series last night and it will be more of the same in Game 2 as there will hardly be any home-field advantage.  The fans have given up on this team as they are out of the playoff race.  The Red Sox are just 2-5 in their last seven games overall.

The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  Nestor Cortes is 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.948 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Brayan Bello, who is 1-4 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.732 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Bet the Yankees Wednesday.

20* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -152

The New York Yankees have turned things around and are back in position to clinch the AL East down the stretch.  They have gone 6-2 in their last eight games overall, including two straight wins over the Rays while scoring a combined 20 runs in the process.

The Yankees have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Boston Red Sox.  Ace Gerrit Cole is 11-7 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 28 starts this season with 218 K's in 171 1/3 innings.  Cole is 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last three starts and has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in five of his last six starts.

Nick Pivetta is 4-6 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.467 WHIP in 14 home starts this season.  Pivetta has never beaten the Yankees, going 0-3 with a 9.74 ERA and 1.820 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He has allowed 17 earned runs and 6 homers in 13 1/3 innings in three starts against the Yankees in 2022 for an 11.48 ERA.  Bet the Yankees Tuesday.

20* Broncos/Seahawks ESPN No-Brainer on Seattle +7

This line is inflated.  Denver is a popular team in the offseason after trading for Russell Wilson.  Conversely, Seattle is an unpopular team after losing Wilson.  That has created some artificial line value on the Seahawks.  This line would indicate that Denver is 10 points better than Seattle on a neutral field when you factor in home-field advantage for the Seahawks.  That's just not the case.

We've seen former quarterbacks struggle going back to play teams they have played for their entire career.  Tom Brady barely beat the Patriots in his return to New England and talked about how awkward it was.  Wilson loves Seattle, and it will be awkward for him going into the visitor's locker room and all the distractions that come with playing his former team.

I'm not a big Geno Smith guy, but he does have plenty of starting experience and he doesn't beat himself.  He will keep the Seahawks in this game, and not to mention he probably has the best weapons he's ever had on any team.  The Seahawks still have one of the best WR duos in the NFL in Metcalf and Lockett.

If there's anyone that knows Wilson's tendencies and the best way to defend him, it would be Pete Carroll and this coaching staff.  I think that will be an advantage for this Seattle defense.  Don't fall for his pump fakes, and keep him contained.

The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The Seahawks are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as underdogs.  Carroll is 18-8 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of Seattle.  Bet the Seahawks Monday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -1.5 (-135)

The New York Mets have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall while scoring 38 runs and an average of 7.6 runs per game.  They are coming up clutch trying to clinch the NL East.  They won't be taking their foot off the gas against the lowly Chicago Cubs tonight.

The Cubs are just 3-11 in their last 14 games overall with nine losses by two runs or more.  They are not seeing the ball well at all right now, scoring just 2.4 runs per game in going 1-4 in their last five games overall.  Javier Assad is making just his 4th start of the season for the Cubs, averaging 4.8 innings in his first three starts while allowing 20 base runners and two homers in 14 1/3 innings.

Chris Bassitt has been great for the Mets this season in going 13-7 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 26 starts, including 5-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in 14 home starts.  Bassitt's teams are 37-12 in his last 49 starts as a favorite of -110 or higher and winning by 2.1 runs per game on average.

The Mets are 11-1 when revenging a one-run loss this season and winning by 2.5 runs per game.  Bassitt's teams are 23-3 in his last 26 starts vs. a team with a losing record and winning by 3.0 runs per game.  Chicago is 4-25 vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or fewer runs per game in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and losing by 3.4 runs per game.  Roll with the Mets on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Pirates/Reds OVER 9

Two terrible starting pitchers go tonight for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds.  The forecast will help us cash this OVER 9 ticket with 12 MPH winds expected to be blowing out to left.  The Pirates just scored 16 runs in three games with the Cardinals, while the Reds have scored at least 3 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall.

Bryse Wilson is 2-7 with a 6.88 ERA and 1.601 WHP in 16 starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Mike Minor, who is 4-10 with a 5.70 ERA and 1.556 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 0-7 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.533 WHIP in nine home starts.  Minor is 2-2 with a 5.58 ERA in seven career starts against Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati is 7-0 OVER following two consecutive road losses to division opponents this season.  The OVER is 10-2 in WIlson's 12 starts vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse this season.  The OVER is 9-1-1 in Pirates last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 5-0 in Pirates last five road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 19-9-2 in the last 30 meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Packers/Vikings NFC North ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +2

The Minnesota Vikings will have one of the top offenses in the NFL this season.  Kirk Cousins gets a bad rap, but he is one of only six quarterbacks to throw at least 30 touchdown passes each of the last two seasons.  He is loaded with weapons in Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn and Dalvin Cook.  

Everyone is raving about the new offense under former Rams coordinator Kevin O'Connell, with Jefferson saying he can now see how Cooper Kupp was always wide open even when opposing teams knew he was going to get the ball.  And the defense cannot be much worse than it was a year ago.

The Vikings gave DE Za'Darius Smith a $42 million contract in the offseason in hopes that he can return to the form that saw him recording 26 total sacks in 2019 and 2020.  He played just one game last year with a back injury.  He'll be opposite All-Pro Danielle Hunter to form one of the top edge-rushing duos in the NFL.  Dalvin Tomlinson does a little bit of everything on the inside, and newcomer Harrison Phillips is a run stuffer.

Eric Kendricks is one of the best linebackers in the NFL.  The Vikings had big concerns in the secondary in the offseason, so they spend their top two picks addressing this area.  They used one on Lewis Cline to replace the departed Xavier Woods at safety.  He'll start next to Harrison Smith, one of the top safeties in the NFL.  They got Andrew Booth in the second round even though many projected him to be a first-round pick at corner.  He'll likely start opposite Patrick Peterson.

I don't think the Packers will be anywhere near 100% to open the season.  Aaron Rodgers will be without DeVante Adams for the first time since 2014.  All he did was top 74 receptions and 885 yards in each of the last six seasons, including 10 or more touchdowns in five of them.  He had 2,927 yards and 29 touchdowns the last two years alone.  Also gone is No. 2 receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling.  It's going to take a few games for Rodgers to form chemistry with Sammy Watkins and Romeo Daubs, along with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.  Lazard is questionable to play in Week 1.

The Packers are ripe for the picking in Week 1, and the Vikings have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL when they are good.  The fans will be rowdy for this showdown against the hated division rival Packers.  Remember, the Packers lost 38-3 at New Orleans in Week 1 last year.  Division underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  The Vikings are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as home underdogs.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Dodgers/Padres OVER 8

Both the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  The Dodgers have scored 4 runs or more in seven consecutive games.  The Padres have scored 4 runs or more in 12 of their last 14 games overall.  I expect both teams to get to 4 runs or more again today to easily cash this OVER 8 ticket.

Both of these starting pitchers are struggling.  Andrew Heaney is 1-1 with a 5.51 ERA in his last three starts while allowing 10 earned runs and 7 homers in 16 1/3 innings.  Joe Musgrove is 1-4 with a 4.94 ERA in his last 10 starts overall while allowing 30 earned runs and 10 homers in 54 2/3 innings.

The OVER is 16-1 in Heaney's last 17 starts with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The OVER is 13-4 in Musgrove's 17 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs this season.  The OVER is 8-0-1 in Dodgers last nine games overall.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -155

The Chicago White Sox have saved their best baseball of the season for last as they try and chase down the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central.  The White Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall while scoring a total of 38 runs in winning each of their last four games.  The Oakland A's are 1-9 in their last 10 games overall with eight losses by two runs or more.

The White Sox have a big advantage on the mound today behind the underrated Johnny Cueto.  He is 7-7 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 4-3 with a 1.78 ERA and 1.142 WHIP in 10 road starts.  Cueto has never lost to the A's, going 2-0 with a 2.06 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five career starts against them.

Cole Irvin is 7-11 with a 3.72 ERA in 25 starts this season and the White Sox feast on left-handed pitching.  Irvin has been dreadful in his last two starts coming in, allowing 14 earned runs and 23 base runners in 10 innings to the Nationals and Braves.  Irvin allowed 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 6 innings to the White Sox in his lone career start against them.

The White Sox are 49-16 in their last 65 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Chicago is 5-0 in the last five meetings.  Oakland is 5-20 as a home dog of +125 to +175 this season.  Roll with the White Sox Sunday.

20* MLB DOG OF THE WEEK on Minnesota Twins +142

The Minnesota Twins will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to the Cleveland Guardians.  They are now 3.5 games behind the Guardians for 1st place in the AL Central, so this is essentially a must-win for them.

Shane Bieber is getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He is 9-8 with a 3.02 ERA in 26 starts this season and certainly a reliable starter.  But he should not be this big of a favorite.  Bieber has posted a 3.40 ERA and 1.268 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Twins.

Josh Winder is being massively disrespected for the Twins.  He is 4-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in six starts this season.  One of his best starts this season came against the Guardians on June 28th when he fired 6 shutout innings in a 6-0 victory.  That was his lone career start against them.

Minnesota is 14-5 (+11.8 Units) after having lost five or six of its last seven games this season.  The value is too good to pass up today given the spot and with Winder on the mound.  Bet the Twins Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -133

The New York Mets are neck-and-neck with the Atlanta Braves for the NL East title here down the stretch.  I think we are getting the Mets at a discount today, especially taking on a Marlins team that has been dreadful at the plate for over a month.  The Marlins have scored 3 runs or fewer in 33 of their last 38 games overall.

Taijuan Walker has been solid for the Mets this season at 10-4 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in 24 starts.  Walker is 3-2 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.166 WHIP in eight career starts against the Marlins.  He'll be opposed by Jesus Luzardo, who is 1-4 with a 4.79 ERA in five home starts this season.  Luzardo has posted a 4.22 ERA in two career starts against the Mets.

The Mets are 11-1 in Walker's last 12 road starts with a line of +100 to -150.  Take the Mets Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers -1.5

The Carolina Panthers were decimated by injuries last year.  Most notably, they were 3-2 in games in which Christian McCaffrey played, and 2-10 without him.  They also got terrible quarterback play from Sam Darnold and Cam Newton.  Baker Mayfield is a huge upgrade at quarterback.

The Panthers upgraded the offensive line big-time.  They added two interior linemen in Austin Corbett and Bradley Bozeman, who are going to be major upgraded.  The biggest upgrade could be left tackle Ikem Dkwonu, who they took with the 6th pick in the first round.  RT Taylor Moton is one of the better players at his position.

Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos, Derrick Brown and Matt Ioannidis should form a solid pass rush that saw the Panthers finish in the Top 10 in pressure rate in 2021 despite trailing in most games.  The secondary will be a strength with 2021 first-round pick Jaycee Horn at CB and 2020 second-round pick Jeremy Chinn at safety.  Chinn will play next to Xavier Woods, who has been solid for the Cowboys and Vikings in recent seasons.  Donte Jackson was awarded a $35 million contract for his play and is one of the more underrated corners in the league.

Speaking of poor QB play, the Cleveland Browns are going to have that this season.  They mortgaged the farm to trade for Deshaun Watson, only to see him get suspended for the first 11 games of the season.  That means Jacoby Brissett will start for them.  Brissett has had his opportunity in the NFL, and he has never proven to be a reliable starter in this league.  He doesn't have great weapons outside of Amari Cooper, either.

You know Baker Mayfield is going to be 100% dialed in for this game to get revenge on the Browns for trading him.  He was even quoted as saying "I'm going to fuck them up" when asked about playing his former team.  I think Matt Rhule is fit to be an NFL coach because players love him, and if injuries break his way finally, he could be in the running for Coach of the Year honors.

The Browns are 0-15-1 SU & 4-12 ATS in Week 1 over the past 16 seasons.  The Panthers basically just have to win this game to cover.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/49ers UNDER 42

The San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears have two of the worst quarterback situations in the NFL.  They also have two of the best defenses in the league.  That leads me to really like this UNDER 42 in the season opener as I think points will be at a premium.

Kyle Shanahan is going to be very conservative with Trey Lance early in the season.  Look for him to run the football more than normal and to rely on ball control to win games until Lance gets comfortable a few weeks down the road.  The 49ers easily have a Top 3 defense and probably the best defense in the NFL this season.  They nearly rode that defense to the Super Bowl last year.

Justin Fields struggled last year as a starter.  He should make strides forward, unfortunately there isn't a lot of talent around him, especially with the loss of top receiver Allen Robinson.  The Bears also figure to rely on the running game a lot early in the season, and Fields will be a big part of that with his dual-threat ability.  Despite miserable offense after miserable offense, the Bears have been pretty steady in fielding a top-notch defense throughout the years.

Chicago is 60-34 in its last 94 games as a home underdog of 7 points or less.  The UNDER is 7-1 in 49ers last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 20-7 in Bears last 27 home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Houston Texans +8

The Houston Texans come into the season undervalued after going just 4-13 last season.  But Lovie Smith has this team on the rise and they played very well on the preseason.  Not to mention, QB Davis Mills finished strong last year and is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the NFL.

Mills completed 66.8% of his passes as a rookie last year.  Rookie RB Dameon Pierce is getting rave reviews in camp and could win Rookie of the Year honors.  Houston has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL.  The left side is solid with Laremy Tunsil and first-round rookie Kenyon Green.

Houston has very good offensive and defensive lines, which is why they are underrated coming into the season with the lack of big names.  Jonathan Greenard had eight sakcs in 12 games last year.  Jerry Hughes comes over from the Buffalo Bills after a great nine-year run with the team.  Maliek Collins is well-rounded on the interior.

There is a lot of hype surrounding the Indianapolis Colts this year.  They somehow blew their chance at making the playoffs by losing to the Jaguars in Week 18.  Carson Wentz is gone, and now in comes the veteran Matt Ryan.  Remember, Ryan had all the weapons he could ask for in Atlanta and wasn't able to do anything with them aside from the one Super Bowl Run that was aided by Kyle Shanahan calling the plays.  He'll be better under Frank Reich, but Ryan is far past his prime.

The losses were big in the offseason with WR T.Y. Hilton, TE Jack Doyle CB Rock Ya-Sin and OT Eric Fisher all gone.  The Colts have spent three early draft choices on defensive linemen in recent offseasons, yet they finished dead last in pressure rate last season.  They traded Ya-Sin to the Raiders for Yannick Ngakoue.  He will get a pass rush, but he gets trampled against the run.

The Colts have been slow starters going 1-12-1 ATS in their last 14 Week 1 games.  Divisional underdogs are 28-9-2  ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. AFC South foes.  Asking the Colts to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown to cover in Week 1 is asking too much.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

15* Steelers/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +7

The Cincinnati Bengals come in overvalued after making the Super Bowl last year.  I always like fading both Super Bowl winners and especially Super Bowl losers because there seems to be a hangover effect.  Indeed, Super bowl losers are 5-21 ATS in Week 1 the following season over the past 26 years.

I'm a big Joe Burrow guy as he has won me a ton of money dating back to his time at LSU.  But it's going to take him some time to recover from an appendectomy this summer, which caused him to lose 20 pounds due to an infection.  He didn't play at all in the preseason and has only recently been cleared to play.

There cannot be that big of a drop off from Big Ben to Mitch Trubisky.  Big Ben was a dink and dunk QB the last couple years.  Trubisky is at least mobile and can stretch the field.  He thrived in the preseason and the Steelers feel good about his prospects.

Trubisky has a lot more weapons at his disposal in Pittsburgh than he did in Chicago.  They are Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Treiermuth and rookie George Pickens.  Najee Harris is a solid back and they can rely on him plenty, especially catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Steelers had issues against the run last year and tried to shore that up this offseason.  But they were very good against the pass and will be again, making this a good matchup for them.  T.J. Watt is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL, logging 22.5 sacks last season.

I just think this line is inflated because the Bengals went to the Super Bowl last year, while the Steelers are breaking in a new QB.  Division underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2014.  The Steelers are 25-7 SU & 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 meetings with the Bengals.  Pittsburgh is 35-15-2 ATS in its last 52 games as an underdog.  Take the Steelers Sunday. (Buy 0.5 to +7 if necessary)

20* Mississippi State/Arizona FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona +11

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They add in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback and I think this is going to be the single most improved team in the country.

I backed Arizona last week as 6.5-point underdogs at San Diego State.  That was a no sweat winner as Arizona rolled to a 38-20 victory, gaining 461 total yards and holding the Aztecs to 232 yards, outgaining them by 229 yards.  De Laura lived up to the hype, throwing for 299 yards and four touchdowns with one pick in the win.

Fans are excited about this team finally, and it's going to be a raucous atmosphere in Tucson Saturday night with an 11:00 PM EST kick.  That's a very late start for a Mississippi State team that is in the Eastern time zone and won't be used to it.  I like this Mississippi State team, but they should not be laying double-digits on the road to the Wildcats in Week 2.  The Bulldogs beat a Memphis team last week that is way down this year and is getting too much respect for that blowout home victory.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on New Mexico State/UTEP UNDER 47

Jerry Kill is a first-year head coach at New Mexico State.  He has always been a conservative head coach focusing on defense and ball control, and that is clearly is MO here at New Mexico State thus far.  Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  

Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They managed just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

New Mexico State proceeded to get shut out 38-0 by Minnesota in Week 2.  The Aggies only managed 81 total yards against the Golden Gophers.  It will be tough sledding again this week against a UTEP defense that only allowed 25.2 points per game last season and brought back eight starters from that defense.

UTEP's defensive numbers are inflated this season because they have played two great offenses in North Texas and Oklahoma.  Don't be surprised to see them hold this awful Aggies offense to 14 points or fewer this week as this is a big step down in class.  I also expect UTEP to score more than the 13.0 points per game they are averaging through two games, but not enough to get this final score over the 47-point total.  They are a run-based team that lost their star receiver last year in Jacob Cowing, who had 1,354 yards and seven touchdowns.

UTEP beat New Mexico State 30-3 last year for just 33 combined points, so there is familiarity with these teams which also favors the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -11

The Oklahoma State Cowboys went 12-2 last year and should have won the Big 12 title.  But they got stopped on the goal line in four tries by Baylor in the title game.  They rebounded to beat Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, and now they come back highly motivated to win the Big 12 in 2022.

Mike Gundy made a point of speeding up the offense to get this unit back to where it has been in years past.  That was on display in the opener as the Cowboys ran a play every 19 seconds, running 73 plays in 23:52 for 531 yards and 7.3 yards per play in their 58-44 win over Central Michigan in the opener.

That game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate, and I think that misleading result is providing us with some line value this week, because Oklahoma State failed to cover the 20.5-point spread.  The Cowboys led 51-15 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs.  Central Michigan scored most of their points against the Cowboys' backups.

Conversely, I think Arizona State is getting too much respect this week after covering as 25.5-point favorites in a 40-3 win over Northern Arizona last week.  But make no mistake about it, the Sun Devils look like one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country this season, and that will show as the season goes on.

Herm Edwards is squarely on the hot seat entering his 5th season in Tempe.  He has just seven starters back as this is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country.  He lost a ton of players to the transfer portal, including QB Jayden Daniels.  Each of the top four receivers and each of the top three rushers are gone.  Seven of the top nine tacklers are gone on defense.

The atmosphere will be great for this Saturday night game in Stillwater.  The Cowboys are going to keep that fast-paced offense going and run Arizona State off the field.  The conservative Sun Devils won't be able to play catch up like Central Michigan did, and I don't expect the Cowboys to call off the dogs so early after what happened last week.  Oklahoma State is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)

The Toronto Blue Jays are 13-2 in their last 15 road games.  The Texas Rangers are 1-11 in their last 12 games overall.  Toronto is trying to wrap up a wild card spot while also still having an outside chance to win the AL East here down the stretch and are playing with a sense of urgency.  They have scored 4 runs or more in 11 consecutive games.

Toronto has a big advantage on the mound today with Kevin Gausman, who is 11-9 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Gausman has been at his best on the road, going 7-3 with a 2.07 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 13 starts away from home.

Gausman is also 3-2 with a 2.82 ERA in seven career starts against Texas.  He'll be opposed by Kohei Arihara, who is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in three starts this season.  He has never had much success in the big leagues and is no more than a fill in starter here for the Rangers down the stretch.

Gausman's teams are 13-1 in his last 14 road starts in the second half of the season and winning by 4.8 runs per game on average.  Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Connecticut +23.5

The UConn Huskies are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2022.  I love the Jim Mora hire.  He joined the staff for the final four games last year so he could recruit for this season.  He retained his DC in Lou Spanos, who held the same position under Mora at UCLA and was at UConn the last three years.

The Huskies welcome back 15 starters and 54 lettermen.  They return each of their top six tacklers on defense.  The Huskies had five games decided by 14 points or less last year and should be more competitive this season.  That has proven to be the case thus far as they are 2-0 ATS and undervalued.

Connecticut jumped out to a 14-0 lead on Utah State in the opener and eventually lost 31-20, covering easily as 23.5-point underdogs.  I had them at +28 in that game as a lot of money came in on them.  UConn went on to cover as 20.5-point favorites in a 28-3 win over Central Connecticut State last week.  Now this will be their third game because they were one of the few teams to play in Week 0, which is an advantage for them.

Syracuse is getting too much respect for its 31-7 upset win over Louisville as 5-point underdogs last week.  Louisville gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.  This is a Syracuse team that went 5-7 last year with its only blowout win by this kind of margin coming against FCS Albany.  While they may be improved, they should not be 23.5-point favorites here.  This is now a sandwich game and a bad spot for them coming off a conference win against Louisville, and with Purdue on deck next week.

Syracuse is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a blowout upset win by 21 points or more as an underdog, and 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games following an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog.  Dino Babers is 0-8 ATS after allowing 9 points or fewer last game as the coach of Syracuse.  Bet Connecticut Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas +13.5

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

I am high on West Virginia compared to the market, and I cashed them as 7.5-point underdogs in their opener in a 7-point loss to Pittsburgh.  But they were in control of that game and let it slip away after a wide open receiver dropped an easy catch, and it was intercepted returned for a TD in the final minutes.  

That was a deflating loss in the Backyard Brawl rivalry, and I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team like WVU twice.  Don't be surprised if Kansas pulls this upset after only losing by 6 to WVU last year.  This is a hangover spot for the Mountaineers and the Jayhawks are live underdogs this week, and I expect them to be live underdogs a lot this season.  Take Kansas Saturday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (-110)

The Chicago White Sox have saved their best baseball of the season for last as they try and chase down the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central.  The White Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall while scoring a total of 28 runs in their last three games.  They just came back from 3-0 down in the 9th to beat the A's 5-3 yesterday and have a ton of momentum now.

The Oakland A's are 1-8 in their last nine games overall with seven losses by two runs or more.  It won't get any better for them today with Adrian Martinez going.  He is 4-3 with a 4.37 ERA in seven starts this season.

Lance Lynn has been dominant for the past month.  He is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last five starts while allowing just 5 earned runs in 31 2/3 innings with a whopping 40 K's.  Lynn is also 4-2 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.248 WHIP in nine career starts against the A's.

The White Sox are 48-16 in their last 64 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Chicago is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  Bet the White Sox Saturday.

15* Virginia/Illinois Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Illinois -3.5

Illinois improved last season down the stretch in going 4-3 in their final seven games including upsets over Penn State and Minnesota as 24 and 14-point underdogs, respectively.  It's year 2 under Bret Bielema and he has 13 starters back plus Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito at quarterback.

I've been impressed with Illinois in their first two games this season.  They crushed Wyoming 38-6 in the opener while outgaining them by 265 yards.  That's a Wyoming team that came back last week and upset Tulsa.  They should have beaten Indiana, outgaining them by 86 yards but blowing it late in the 4th quarter.  I think that loss has them a little undervalued coming into this week.  Illinois should be at least a 7-point favorite over Virginia.

Virginia is in rebuilding mode after losing head coach Bronco Mendenhall in the offseason.  They also bring back just 10 starters for first-year head coach Tony Elliott.  They do have stud QB Brennan Armstrong back, but he has a lot on his shoulders.  Virginia is breaking in five new starters along the offensive line, and I love fading teams that are bad in the trenches.

While these teams are pretty evenly matched on offense, Illinois is going to have a huge advantage on defense.  Virginia gave up 31.8 points and 466 yards per game last year. They gave up 226 rushing yards per game and 5.8 per carry.  Illinois is going to be able to run the ball at will on this Virginia defense.

The Cavaliers gave up 170 rushing yards and nearly 5.0 yards per carry in their 34-17 win over Richmond last week.  Illinois is only allowing 14.5 points, 287 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play through two games.  Illinois will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football and win this Big 10 vs. ACC matchup with plenty of room to spare.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* UNLV/Cal Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNLV +13

The UNLV Rebels are one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into the season.  Marcus Arroyo is in Year 3 here, and that's when coaches usually make their biggest leaps.  UNLV pulled upsets over Hawaii and New Mexico in its final two games last year.  They also lost in double-OT to Eastern Washington, by 7 to UTSA as 21-point dogs, by 4 to Utah State as 7-point dogs and by 8 to San Diego State as 10-point dogs.  Those last three teams were three of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.

Now Arroyo welcomes 12 starters back including QB Doug Brumfield, who showed out in the opener.  UNLV beat Idaho State 52-21 as 23-point underdogs.  They gained 554 yards of offense and outgained Idaho State by 313 yards.  Brumfield threw for 356 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the win.

California is not a team you can trust to lay double-digit points.  Like clockwork, they have a terrible offense and a great defense every season under Justin Wilcox.  They have averaged 23.8 points per game or fewer in four consecutive seasons, while allowing 26.5 points per fewer each of the last four years.  Wilcox is on the hot seat entering Year 6, and he has one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back.

Cal did manage to cover in a 34-13 win over UC-Davis as 14-point favorites in the opener.  But that game against a FCS opponent was much closer than the final score would indicate.  California only outgained UC-Davis by 28 yards.  That misleading result now has California laying too many points against UNLV this week.

UNLV is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.  California is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games following an ATS win.  The Golden Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rebels are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following a win by 28 points or more.  Take UNLV Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Pitt ABC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -5.5

Pittsburgh comes into the season with massive expectations after winning the ACC last season and going 11-3 overall.  Keep in mind the Panthers never won more than eight games in the previous six seasons under Pat Narduzzi, and they hadn't won more than eight games in over 10 years.  While the Panthers do have 15 starters back, they lose all of their best players.

QB Kenny Pickett (4,319 yards, 42 TD, 7 INT) was drafted in the first round by the Steelers.  Top receiver Jordan Addison (100 receptions, 1,593 yards, 17 TD) transferred to USC to play under Lincoln Riley.  The loss of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple is also massive as he was the architect of Pitt's record-setting offense.  They will have a completely new scheme under OC Frank Cignetti, who spent the past two years at Boston College.

I just think Pitt comes in overrated based on last year's results.  I successfully faded them in Week 1 as 7.5-point favorites against West Virginia.  While they won that game 38-31, they had no business winning it as West Virginia was in control until throwing a pick 6 off a wide open receivers hands in the final minutes.  West Virginia outgained them by 18 yards and Pitt's offense was held to just 384 total yards.  Pitt also suffered some key injuries in that game.  It was a big rivalry game in the Backyard Brawl, and they won't be nearly as motivated as they were to win that game on a standalone Thursday Night game.

Tennessee will be the more motivated team looking for revenge from a 41-34 home loss to Pitt last year.  The Vols gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.  While Pitt is on the decline, Tennessee is on the rise entering Year 2 under Josh Heupel.  The Volunteers welcome back 15 starters this season and are thriving in Heupel's system.

The Vols scored 45 or more points in four of their final five games last season.  QB Hendon Hooker is back along with eight starters on offense.  Hooker is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 68% of his passes for 2,945 yards and a ridiculous 31-to-3 TD/INT ratio last season, while also rushing for 616 yards and five scores as a dual-threat.

The Vols are off and running again this season beating Ball State 59-10 as 37-point favorties in the opener.  Hooker went 18-of-25 for 221 yards and two touchdowns in the opener, while also rushing for two scores.  He got pulled early in the 2nd half with the game in hand.

Tennessee is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  The Volunteers are favored for good reason on the road here as they are clearly the better team and that will show on the field.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Army +3

The Army Black Knights come back motivated after losing to a very good Coastal Carolina team 38-28 in Week 1.  Coastal Carolina was the team playing keep away as they ran 23 more plays than Army did.  Army's numbers were good as they averaged 7.3 yards per play on offense while giving up 6.2 yards per play on defensive, outgaining the Chanticleers by 1.1 yards per play.

Keep in mind Coastal Carolina had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option, which was a huge advantage.  Now UTSA only has one week to get ready for it and they won't be ready at all.  UTSA is also in a terrible spot.  They are coming off a triple-OT loss to Houston last week in which they blew a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter.  I think there will be a hangover effect.  And this is a sandwich spot with an even bigger game against Texas on deck.

Army returned 14 starters this season, which is a ton for a service academy.  Army has now won at least 9 games in four of the past five seasons.  They are loaded again, and head coach Jeff Monken is doing a tremendous job with this program.

UTSA is getting a lot of respect after going 12-2 last season.  Amazingly, the Roadrunners went 6-0 in one-score games last year, so they were very fortunate in close games.  They returned 21 starters last season and now have just 13 starters back this season.  The defense is going to be a problem with just five starters back.

I think Army is going to be able to move it up and down the field on the Roadrunners and control the game with their offense.  They will wear down this UTSA defense as the game goes on, especially after having to play a triple-overtime game last week.  I expect Army to win outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.   Bet Army Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 8.5

Both the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  The Dodgers have scored at least 4 runs in five consecutive games and are averaging 7.6 runs per game during this stretch.  The Padres have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of their last 12 games overall.  Both teams should stay hot against these two sub-par starting pitchers tonight.

Mike Clevinger is 5-6 with a 3.84 ERA in 17 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.65 ERA in his last three.  Clevinger has been awful against the Dodgers this season, going 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA in two starts against them while allowing 10 earned runs and 3 homers in 8 innings.

Dustin May is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA in three starts for the Dodgers this season and is no more than a fill-in starter.  One of those starts came against the Padres last time out when May allowed 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 5 innings to San Diego on September 2nd.

The OVER is 6-0-1 in Dodgers last seven games overall.  The OVER is 6-1 in Padres last seven games overall.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Blue Jays/Rangers OVER 8

The Toronto Blue Jays are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 10 consecutive games and are more than capable of covering this total on their own.  Look for the Rangers to chip in as well.

Dane Dunning is 3-8 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.428 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Dunning has really struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 7.07 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three starts.  He'll be opposed by Ross Stripling, who is 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in one career start against the Rangers.

The OVER is 14-3 in Rangers last 17 home games vs. an AL team that allows 4.4 or fewer runs per game.  The OVER is 35-16 in Blue Jays last 51 games following a win.  The OVER is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings in Texas.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Louisville/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UCF -5.5

The UCF Knights are going to be one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country this season.  Gus Malzahn had a productive first season in Orlando last year in guiding the Knights to a 9-4 season despite suspect quarterback play.  Now Malzahn welcomes back 17 starters and some stud transfers, including QB John Rhys Plumlee from Ole Miss.

Plumlee showed out in the opener by throwing for 308 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 86 yards and another score to flaunt his dual-threat ability.  They beat South Carolina State 56-10 and covered the 43.5-point spread.  Now with a real quarterback and a veteran, loaded roster, the Knights are going to be tough to tame in 2022.

The Louisville Cardinals have been a massive disappointment under head coach Scott Satterfield.  After going 8-5 in his first season, the Cardinals have gone 4-7 and 6-7 the past two seasons, respectively.  Many thought they would be better this season, but that is clearly not the case.

Louisville was steamed up to a 5.5-point favorite at Syracuse in the opener.  They lost 31-7 and were outgained by 115 yards.  They gave up 449 yards to what was a terrible Syracuse offensive last season.  And their supposedly high-powered offense was only held to 334 total yards.  Malik Cunningham threw for only 152 yards and two interceptions in the defeat.

UCF wants revenge from a 42-35 loss at Louisville last season.  UCF was a 7-point favorite in that game, now they are only a 5.5-point favorite at home in the rematch.  And clearly the Knights are improved this season while the Cardinals are no better than they were last year, and maybe worse.

UCF has one of the best home-field advantages in the country in the Bounce House.  It's going to be even more of an advantage for this stand-alone Friday night game on National TV.  Fans are hyped about this team, and it will be a very tough atmosphere for Cunningham and Louisville to deal with.

Louisville is 11-28-1 ATS in its last 40 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 275 or fewer total yards in their previous game.  They held South Carolina State to 91 total yards and outgained them by 509 yards.  Bet UCF Friday.

20* Bills/Rams 2022 NFL Season Opener on Buffalo -2.5

The Buffalo Bills are the best team in the NFL to open the season in my opinion.  They should have won the Super Bowl last year, and they come back highly motivated to do so this year.  They get to open the season with the defending Super Bowl champion Rams, which has only added fuel to their fire all offseason getting prepared for this game.

Buffalo is perhaps the only team in the NFL that I'm certain has a Top 5 offense and a Top 5 defense.  Josh Allen threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns with only 10 interceptions last year, while completing 69.2% of his passes and also taking fewer sacks.  The offensive line got two upgrades this offseason in Rodger Safford and David Quessenberry, both formerly of the Titans.  They have a bonafide star receiver in Stefon Diggs, and Gabriel Davis showed he could be the No. 2 with 201 yards and four touchdowns against the Chiefs.  They added Jamison Crowder, which is an upgrade over the departed Cole Beasley in the slot.

The Bills had the top-ranked defense in the NFL last season and also were No. 1 in pressure rate on opposing quarterbacks.  Well, they got even better in that department in the offseason by signing Von Miller to a $120 million contract in the spring.  The one weakness on Buffalo last season was stopping the run, and they shored that up by adding DaQuan Jones, who will start next to Ed Oliver at defensive tackle.

I always like fading teams that won the Super Bowl the previous year because it's so hard to repeat.  There tends to be a hangover effect, too.  Same can be said for Super Bowl losers.  And the losses are huge for the Rams as they part ways with the aforementioned Von Miller, WR Odell Beckham Jr, WR Robert Woods, G Austin Corbett and OT Andrew Whitworth.  The loss to Whitworth cannot be overstated as he was the leader on this offense.

Matthew Stafford suffered an elbow injury that kept him out of training camp.  Many has said he won't be the same quarterback as last year, while some say he looks perfectly fine leading up to the opener.  Either way, there will be a rust factor, and it's definitely a concern for the Rams at the very least.

I think the Bills are the hungrier, more ready team for Week 1 given all that has taken place in the offseason.  Buffalo is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 games vs. NFC West opponents.  The Bills are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Week 1 games.  Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bills Thursday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Twins/Yankees OVER 7

The Minnesota Twins have combined for 7 or more runs with their opponents in seven of their last eight games overall.  That includes each of the first three games of this series with the New York Yankees.  It should be more of the same today with these teams combining for at least 7 runs tonight.

Sonny Gray is 1-2 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in five career starts against the Yankees.  Nestor Cortes is 1-1 with a 4.77 ERA in two career starts against the Twins.  He allowed 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his lone start against Minnesota this season.

Minnesota is 14-2 OVER when revenging a blowout road loss by 6 runs or more over the last two seasons.  The Twins are 12-1 OVER when revenging four or more consecutive losses vs. opponent over the last two years.  The OVER is 41-18-5 in Twins last 64 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 37-15-2 in the last 54 meetings.  The OVER is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings in New York.  Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs/Reds OVER 8

The Cincinnati Reds have gone 3-0-1 OVER in their last four games overall with 8 or more combined runs in all four and 10 or more in three of those.  The The OVER is 4-1-4 in Cubs last nine games overall with combined scores of 8 or more runs in eight of those nine games.

These are two gas can starting pitchers going for both teams today.  Luis Cessa is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.583 WHIP in four starts this season.  Adrian Sampson is 1-5 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 0-3 with a 5.29 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in six home starts.

The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.  The Cubs and Reds have combined for at least 8 runs in eight of their last nine meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-140)

Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals has been the biggest impact trade of the season to this point.  Montgomery is 5-0 with a 1.47 ERA in his last six starts for the Cardinals, allowing just 6 earned runs in 36 2/3 innings.

Montgomery has a big advantage on the mound over Cory Abbott of the Washington Nationals.  Abbott is 0-2 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 18 2/3 innings.

The Nationals are 19-40 in their last 59 games overall.  Washington is 5-22 in its last 27 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Cardinals are 36-16 in their last 52 games overall.  St. Louis is 38-15 in its last 53 home games.  The Cardinals are 10-1 in their last 11 during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-115)

The Milwaukee Brewers are fighting to try and make a wild card spot.  They face a Colorado Rockies team that is 1-5 in their last six games overall.  The Rockies have been held to 20 runs total in their last nine games for an average of just 2.2 runs per game.

The Brewers have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the Rockies.  Brandon Woodruff is 9-4 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  He allowed just one run in 6 innings of a 9-4 victory over the Rockies in his lone start against them this season on July 23rd.

Chad Kuhl is 6-8 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 9.20 ERA and 1.568 WHIP in his last three.  Kuhl allowed 5 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings on July 24th in his lone start against the Brewers this season.

The Brewers are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings with the Rockies.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* Clemson/Georgia Tech ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -22

The Clemson Tigers are undervalued to open the season.  They had not lost more than two games in any season since 2014.  But they went 10-3 last year and didn't win the ACC.  It was a rare down season for Dabo Swinney and company, and his players will come back highly motivated in the offseason to right the ship.

Swinney returns a whopping 15 starters this season, which is rare for a Clemson team.  Usually they lost a ton of players to the NFL Draft, but that wasn't the case this offseason.  They defense remains loaded after allowing 14.8 points and 305 yards per game last season.

The key is the offense, which will be one of the most improved units in the country after averaging just 26.3 points and 359 yards per game last season.  To compare, they averaged 43.5 points per game or more in three consecutive seasons prior to 2021.  There are nine starters back on offense and the chemistry will be great from the jump.

Georgia Tech will be the worst team in the ACC this season.  Geoff Collins just hasn't been able to fill the massive shoes of Paul Johnson.  Collins enters his fourth seasons here and the Yellow Jackets have won exactly three games in each of his first three seasons.  It's amazing he even still has a job.

The Yellow Jackets only return eight starters this season after having 17 back last year.  This is a rebuilding year, especially after losing the final two games of last season by a combined score of 110-0.  It won't get any better to start the 2022 campaign as they face a hungry, juggernaut of a team in Clemson.

Sure, Georgia Tech played Clemson tough in a 14-8 loss as 27-point dogs last season.  But that was an aberration and Clemson is much stronger this year.  Keep in mind Clemson won by 66, 38 and 28 points in the three meetings prior, respectively.  The one-sided dominance of this series returns in the 2022 opener.

This game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.  Clemson is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 neutral site games.  The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Clemson Monday.

15* White Sox/Mariners AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 7.5

Two gas can starting pitchers go for the Mariners and White Sox tonight.  Both lineups are starting to heat up too.  The White Sox have scored at least 4 runs in five of their last six games overall.  The Mariners have scored at least 4 runs in seven consecutive games.

Lance Lynn is 0-3 with a 5.59 ERA in seven road starts this season.  He'll be opposed by Marco Gonzales, who is 10-12 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.384 WHIP in 26 starts this season.

The OVER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Seattle.  The OVER is 33-16-3 in White Sox last 52 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Take the OVER in this game Monday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Twins/Yankees OVER 8

The Minnesota Twins are starting to hit up to their potential again.  They have scored 3 runs or more in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  The New York Yankees have been held in check of late, but I look for them to bust out today against Chris Archer and the Twins.

Archer is 2-7 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in 23 starts this season, 0-4 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in 11 road starts, and 0-1 with a 9.72 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 9 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings.

Jameson Taillon is 12-4 with a 3.97 ERA in 26 starts this season for the Yankees.  Taillon can't figure out the Twins, going 2-1 with a 5.23 ERA in four career starts against them.  The Twins will get to him again today.

The OVER is 35-14-2 in the last 51 meetings.  The OVER is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings in New York.  The OVER is 15-6-3 in Twins last 24 road games.  The OVER is 41-17-5 in Twins last 63 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* FSU/LSU ABC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

I believe this will be a shootout tonight in the Superdome in New Orleans.  At the very least, these teams should combine to top this 50-point total.  I like the outlook of both of these offenses, and I have some questions about both the defenses.

Brian Kelly comes over to LSU and brings offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock with him from.  Denbrock spent the past five seasons as Cincinnati's offensive coordinator and was a great at getting the most out of Desmond Ridder's skill set.  Denbrock was an assistant under Kelly at Notre Dame from 2010 to 2016.

Jayden Daniels comes over from Arizona State to take over the quarterback position.  He was a dynamic dual-threat like Ridder at ASU, throwing for 6,025 yards and rushing for 1,288 more in his three seasons there.  He has arguably the most talented group of receivers in the country to get the ball to.  This is going to be an explosive LSU offense starting Week 1.

I do have questions surrounding LSU's defense that returns only five starters.  The defensive line will be fine, but there's a lot of inexperience in the back seven and they could be susceptible to some broken plays in the opener.  LSU allowed 34.9 points per game in 2020 and 26.6 points per game in 2021, so they haven't been nearly as dominant on this side of the ball in recent years.

The Florida State Seminoles enter Year 3 under Mike Norvell.  They should be hitting on all cylinders from the jump offensively.  Eight starters are back on offense including QB Jordan Travis, who made eight starters last year throwing for 1,539 yards and 15 touchdowns with six interceptions, while also rushing for 530 yards and seven scores.  He has five of his top six receivers back and add in talented Oregon transfer Mycah Pittman.  Four starters are back along the offensive line.

Florida State has also been vulnerable defensively in recent years.  They have allowed at least 26.5 points per game in four consecutive seasons.  While they may be improved on that side of the ball this season with eight starters back, I can't see them holding LSU's talent in check in the opener.

The OVER is 7-2 in Seminoles last nine neutral site games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Tigers last six neutral site games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Tigers last 10 September games.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AL Central TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Twins/White Sox OVER 8

The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox should have no problem combining for more than eight runs tonight with these two gas cans of starting pitchers going today.  The Twins and their opponents have combined for 8 or more runs in seven of their last 10 games overall.  The White Sox and their opponents have combined for 8 or more runs in eight of their last 12 games overall.

Lucas Giolito has been one of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball this season.  He has posted a 5.27 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 24 starts this season.  Giolito has been at his worst at home, going 4-6 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.610 WHIP in 11 home starts.

Dylan Bundy is 7-6 with a 4.53 ERA in 23 starts for the Twins this season.  Bundy has been at his worst on the road, going 3-5 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.346 WHIP In 14 starts away from home. 

The OVER is 8-1 in Giolito's nine day starts this season with an average of 14.3 combined runs in those nine starts.  The OVER is 14-1 in Minnesota's last 15 games when revenging a blowout road loss by 6 runs or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Rangers/Red Sox OVER 9.5

The Boston Red Sox are as healthy as they have been in a while and it is showing as they have scored 5 runs or more in five consecutive games and eight of their last 10 games overall.  The Texas Rangers have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last 12 games overall.  Both lineups should stay hot against these two gas can starting pitchers.

Josh Winckowski is 5-7 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 13 starts for the Red Sox this season.  He has been at his worst at home, going 3-4 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.777 WHIP in eight starts at Fenway Park.

Dane Dunning has been at his worst on the road for the Rangers, going 0-5 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.638 WHIP in 12 starts away from home.  Dunning is 0-2 with an 8.70 ERA and 1.741 WHIP in two career starts against the Red Sox, allowing 10 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.

The OVER is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 8-2 in Rangers last 10 games overall.  The OVER is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings, and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Boston.  The OVER is 4-1 in Red Sox last five games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Dodgers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing three straight coming in.  They have a big advantage on the mound tonight over the San Diego Padres that should have them winning this game by two runs or more.

Julio Urias is 14-7 with a 2.32 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.06 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in his last three.  He has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts, and one earned run or fewer in 10 of his last 13 starts.  Urias owns the Padres, going 4-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.953 WHIP in seven career starts against them.  That includes 3-0 with a 0.53 ERA in his last three starts against San Diego while allowing just one earned run in 17 innings.

Sean Manaea is the biggest weak link in San Diego's rotation.  He is 7-7 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 2-4 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.322 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Manaea has never beaten the Dodgers, going 0-4 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.955 WHIP in five career starts against them.  He has already allowed 14 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings in two starts against the Dodgers this season.

The Dodgers are 24-4 in Urias' last 28 starts in the second half of the season and winning by 3.0 runs per game in this spot.  Los Angeles is 19-2 at home against division opponents this season.  Roll with the Dodgers on the Run Line Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Ohio State ABC No-Brainer on Notre Dame +17

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish went 11-2 last season and were a blown 28-7 lead to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl away from 12-1.  That loss will have them motivated all offseason, especially after just missing out on the four-team playoff.  Brian Kelly did a great job here but left for LSU.

The cupboard isn't bare for new head coach Marcus Freeman.  He was the defensive coordinator for the Fighting Irish last season.  He welcomes back 15 starters and came through with a Top 5 recruiting class in 2022.  To compare, Ohio State only had the 11th-best recruiting class this season.

The offense has seven starters back, and while there are some new skill position players, the strength of the unit returns as four starters are back on the offensive line.  They paved the way for 224 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry while allowing just 13 sacks over their final eight games last season.  The defense has eight starters and eight of the top nine tacklers back from a unit that gave up just 19.7 points per game last season and will be a strength.

Ohio State was also went 11-2 last season after a big comeback win over Utah in the Rose Bowl.  The Buckeyes will be good again with 14 starters back, but they are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in the early going.  Remember, they struggled to beat Minnesota by 14 and lost outright to Oregon in the first two weeks of the season last year.  They were also in a dog fight with Tulsa at home in the 4th quarter in their third game of the season.

Marcus Freeman and the rest of the staff have been informed of the point spread for this game, and they have stated they will use that as motivation letting their players know they are 17-point dogs.  I just like the motivation of this Notre Dame team after that tough Fiesta Bowl loss and with everyone already counting them out.  I think they come in with a chip on their shoulder and talent-wise, this game is much closer than this 17-point spread would indicate.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah State +42

I have consistently faded Alabama in these non-conference games as massive favorites over the last handful of years.  It's rinse and repeat with Nick Saban.  Put it on the overmatched non-conference opponent in the first half, then call off the dogs in the second half, especially in the 4th quarter.  That makes it very hard for them to cover these massive spreads even against these overmatched teams.

Utah State is a much better team than many of the non-conference foes the Crimson Tide have faced int he past.  The Aggies won the Mountain West last season with an 11-3 record out of nowhere in Blake Anderson's first season.  I realize they got fortunate to win a ton of close games, but the feat was still pretty impressive, especially beating San Diego State 46-13 in the MWC Championship Game and Oregon State 24-13 outright as 7-point dogs in the bowl.

I did fade Utah State with success in the opener by backing UConn.  But that was more because UConn was underrated coming into the season.  Utah State won that game 31-20 and still outgained UConn 542 to 364.  But since they failed to cover the 23.5-point spread, the Aggies are getting a little extra value this week against Alabama.  It also helps that they have a game under their belt, and they were probably looking ahead to this game as well.  Alabama has Texas on deck so could definitely be looking ahead to that game in the second half.

The Aggies bring back star QB Logan Bonner.  He threw for 3,628 yards with a 36-to-12 TD/INT ratio last season and can keep them within this number for four quarters.  Bonner went 20-of-29 for 281 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions against UConn.  He has four starters and 102 career starts back on the offensive line and had a week to form some chemistry with all his new weapons.  Calvin Tyler, who rushed for 884 yards and seven scores last year, rushed for 161 yards against UConn.

The Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 September games.  Utah State is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  Alabama is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 September games.  The Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Mountain West opponents.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Orioles UNDER 8.5

The UNDER is 11-1 in Orioles last 12 games overall.  They have combined for 8 runs or fewer with their opponents in 12 consecutive games.  Now they take on one of the worst lineups in baseball in the Oakland A's, who are hitting .216 and scoring 3.4 runs per game this season.

Both starters are too good for this total to be set this high tonight.  Austin Voth is 4-2 with a 2.67 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.962 WHIP in his last three.  He'll be opposed by Adam Oller, who is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last three starts, including firing 8 shutout innings against the Yankees last time out.

The UNDER is 9-1 in A's last 10 games vs. AL East opponents.  The UNDER is 12-1 in Orioles last 13 games with a total set of 7 to 8.5 runs.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Take with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Southern Miss +3.5

Southern Miss is going to be one of the most improved teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles went 3-9 last year, had just 62 scholarship players, lost their Top 5 QB on offense due to injury and actually started 10 different players at quarterback.  They started 1-9 and kept fighting, winning their final two games despite playing a RB at QB.

That's a sign of the players continuing to play hard for Will Hill.  Now Hill enters his second season with the team, players are familiar with his systems, and they have created a ton of depth due to all the injuries last year.  The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and can only get better health at QB.  Each of the top 10 tacklers are back on defense as well from a unit that was solid last year in giving up 27.9 points and 359 yards per game.

I've been high on Liberty the past couple seasons because Hugh Freeze is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  Unfortunately, the Flames are in a bit of a rebuilding year this season after going 10-1 in 2022 and 8-5 last year.  After having 20 starters back in 2021, the Flames only have 11 starters back in 2022.

They lose QB Malik Willis to the NFL and he was the key to their success the past two seasons.  He led them in rushing last year by over 400 yards.  The offense has some talent but will take a step back without Willis.  The bigger concern may be returning only four starters on defense.  The Flames lose four of their top five tacklers as well.  Two teams headed in opposite directions here in 2022.  I'll side with the team on the rise.  Roll with Southern Miss Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Troy/Ole Miss UNDER 57.5

Two teams that are loaded defensively this season square off in Week 1.  I think Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss get the reputation of being an offensive juggernaut and not enough credit on defense.  That was the case last season.

Ole Miss gave up just 24.7 points per game last season.  In fact, each of their final eight games last season saw 57 or fewer combined points, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  The Rebels return seven starters on defense and will be ferocious on that side of the ball again.

Not to mention, Ole Miss is going to take a huge step back on offense this season.  They lose QB Matt Corral, each of their top three receivers and each of their top three rushers.  Corral is a huge loss as he threw for 3,349 yards and 20 TD while also rushing for 614 yards and 11 TD.  USC transfer Jaxson Dart could be good, but he has some big shoes to fill.

Troy was a dead nuts UNDER team last season.  They only combined for 60-plus points with their opponents once in 12 games last season.  They had a woeful offense that averaged 22.8 points per game, and while they will be better with nine starters back, don't expect huge improvement.  The defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that gave up 26.1 points and 337 yards per game.  They will be able to hold Ole Miss in check with eight of their top nine tacklers back.

The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Trojans last 10 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Trojans last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Ole Miss' last eight games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona +6.5

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They add in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback and I think this is going to be the single most improved team in the country.

I'm not high at all on San Diego State this season.  Brady Hoke goes from having 17 starters back last season to just 12 starters back in 2022.  They lose leading rusher Greg Bell (1,091 yards, 9 TD) and three of their top four receivers on offense.  Only five starters are back on offense.  The defense will be solid again with seven starters back, but they do lose Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Thomas, who was also a second-team All-American.  The special teams also loses do-everything P/K Matt Araiza, who set the NCAA record for punting average (51.19).

San Diego State went 6-0 in one-score games last year.  That is almost unheard of.  So they were very lucky to have a 12-2 record.  They only outgained teams by 21 yards per game on the season.  So the Aztecs are going to take a step back, while the Wildcats are going to take a step forward.  I think this line should be much closer to PK or Arizona favored.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Arizona) - a team that had a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse last season are 57-23 (71.2%) ATS since 1992.  Arizona was -17 in turnovers last year, so they are due for some positive regression in that department as well.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

15* Oregon/Georgia ABC ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +17.5

Georgia comes into the 2022 season overvalued after finally winning the National Championship for the first time in 41 years.  The Bulldogs only return 10 starters from that team and lose nine players to the NFL on defense alone.  Not to mention, they have been feeling fat and happy all offseason and I question their motivation heading into the opener.

Mario Cristobal is a great recruiter but not a great head coach.  I don't think the Ducks are downgrading at all with Dan Lanning coming over from Georgia, where he was the defensive coordinator the last three years and guided the nation's top D.  That also gives the Ducks an advantage in preparation as Lanning knows all of Georgia's players and schemes.

The cupboard is far from bare for Lanning as the Ducks return 15 starters this season.  They also add in Auburn transfer Bo Nix at quarterback.  He will be starting for a 4th consecutive season and is coming off his best year with 61% completions, 2,294 passing yards and an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio last season.  He is also a dual-threat that has rushed for 869 yards in his career.

Oregon is very strong in the trenches and that gives them a chance to hang with Georgia.  There are 86 career starts and four starters returning on the offensive line in what will be one of the nation's best units.  Four of the top six are back on the defensive line, plus they add in two Nebraska transfers and Sam Taimani from Washington.  They could be even better than last year on the D-Line despite losing All-American Thibodeaux.  This game will be much closer than the odds suggest.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Cincinnati/Arkansas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +7

The disrespect the Cincinnati Bearcats are getting to open the season is alarming.  I'm shocked they are catching a touchdown on the road to the Arkansas Razorbacks.  Cincinnati made the four-team playoff last year and deservedly so with a 13-0 regular season before falling to Alabama in the playoffs, but playing them pretty tough.

Now the Bearcats return 13 starters this season and Luke Fickell is doing a tremendous job here recruiting and coaching them up.  They have eight starters back on offense, and although there is a drop off from Desmond Ridder to Eastern Michigan's Ben Bryant, I don't think it will be as significant as most are expecting.  They add in a 1,000-yard receiver from Hawaii in Nick Mardner and return all five starters up front, making this Fickell's best offensive line yet.

The Bearcats have allowed 16.8 and 16.9 points per game the past two seasons, respectively.  There will be a small drop off here with only five returning starters.  They lost their top two defensive linemen, but add in Ohio State transfer Noah Potter.  Deshawn Pace (95 tackles, 9.5 TFL last year) is back at linebacker and welcomes his brother Ivan Pace (125 tackles, 13 TFL), who was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year at Miami Ohio last year.  The drop off defensively won't be much.

Arkansas is getting some love after a surprising 9-4 season last year that ended with a 24-10 win over Penn State in the Outback Bowl.  But keep in mind that was a veteran Arkansas team that returned 19 starters.  Now the Razorbacks have just 11 starters back, and although QB KJ Jefferson is one of them, there are holes everywhere else.

The defense returns just four starters and loses four of its top five tacklers from a veteran unit that improved by 12.0 points per game allowed from 2020 to 2021.  They won't be nearly as good on this side of the ball in 2022.  They lose three of their top four receivers, including their start in Treylon Burks (1,104 yards, 11 TD last year), who was taken in the first round of the NFL Draft.  This game will go down to the wire with the Bearcats likely pulling the upset.  Take Cincinnati Saturday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-109)

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball in going 23-7 in their last 30 games overall.  They are trying to lock up the NL Central with a lot to play for here in the final month of the season.  They have a big advantage on the mound over the Cubs tonight that should lead to a blowout victory.

The Yankees are really regretting trading away Jordan Montgomery and trading for Frankie Montas right now.  That was a terrible swap for them.  Montgomery is 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA in his last five starts for the Cardinals while allowing just 6 earned runs in 30 2/3 innings.

Montgomery has owned the Cubs, going 3-0 with a 0.79 ERA and 0.573 WHIP in three career starts against them, two of which came this season as has he pitched 16 shutout innings against them.  He'll be opposed by Adrian Sampson, who is 1-4 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 12 starts this season.  Sampson is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in four career starts against St. Louis as well.

St. Louis is 12-1 in home games vs. a starting pitcher that lasts less than 5 innings per start this season and winning by 2.9 runs per game in this spot.  The Cubs are 3-12 in their last 15 games following an off day.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Friday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke -7

To be clear, I'm not high on Duke this season.  But I think this is a great 'buy low' spot on the Blue Devils coming off a disastrous 3-9 season where they opened 3-1 before losing their final eight games.  Longtime head coach David Cutcliffe was let go, and in comes the underrated Mike Elko to give them new life.  Elko has been a defensive coordinator at Wake Forest under Dave Clawson, at Notre Dame under Brian Kelly and at Texas A&M the last four years under Jimbo Fisher, so he is ready for this.

The cupboard is not bare for Elko as the Blue Devils return 11 starters and 50 lettermen this season.  He came through with the 48th-best recruiting class.  This was a young team last year despite most teams having almost everyone back, which was a big problem.  Four of the top five tacklers are back on defense, so Elko does have something to work with there and this will be one of the most improved stop units in the country after allowing 39.8 points and 517 yards per game last season.

The offense is in good hands with six returning starters including four starters and 124 career starts along the offensive line.  The new offensive coordinator is Kevin Johns, who led Memphis to 30.1, 31.0 and 40.4 points per game the last three years.  Duke moved the ball fine last year at 418 yards per game, but they managed just 22.8 points per game.  They averaged 18.3 yards per point, which was the 6th-worst mark in the country, and those teams tend to bounce back.

To be clear, the Temple Owls are going to be one of the worst teams in the country again.  They went 1-6 in 2020 and it didn't go any better last year as they were 3-9 with two of their wins coming against Akron and Wagner.  They averaged 16.3 points per game and gave up 37.5 points per game last season, getting outscored by 21.2 points per game.

The head coaching carousel now sees Temple with its 6th head coach in 7 seasons.  First-hear head coach Stan Drayton comes over after serving as running backs coach at Texas the last five years.  This was one of the worst hires in the country.  While Drayton does have 14 starters back, he had just the 84th-best recruiting class.  There are 12 freshmen or sophomores projected to start for Temple in the opener.  This is a complete rebuilding job.

Temple is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  The Owls are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Blue Devils are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 non-conference games.  Duke is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. AAC opponents.  Bet Duke Friday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Rangers/Red Sox OVER 9

The Texas Rangers have scored at least 6 runs in six of their last 10 games overall.  They are averaging 6.6 runs per game in their last seven games.  The Red Sox have scored at least 5 runs in six of their last eight games overall.  These teams combined for 17 runs in Game 1 last night and it should be more of the same in Game 2 tonight.

The Red Sox may cover this total on their own.  They'll be up against arguably the worst starter in all of baseball in Dallas Keuchel.  He is 2-8 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.054 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 1-4 with a 14.24 ERA and 2.564 WHIP in five road starts.  Keuchel is 3-2 with a 6.12 ERA and 1.617 WHIP in eight career starts against Boston as well.

Nick Pivetta is 9-10 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in 26 starts this season.  Pivetta has been at his worst at home, going 4-6 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.445 WHIP in 13 starts at hitter-friendly Fenway Park this season.

The OVER is 8-1 in Pivetta's nine starts as a home favorite this season.  The OVER is 7-1 in Rangers last eight games overall.  The OVER is 7-0-1 in Rangers last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  The OVER is 12-3-1 in Red Sox last 16 Friday games.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on A's/Orioles UNDER 8

The UNDER is 10-1 in Orioles last 11 games overall.  They have combined for 8 runs or fewer with their opponents in 11 consecutive games.  Now they take on one of the worst lineups in baseball in the Oakland A's, who are hitting .216 and scoring 3.4 runs per game this season.

Both starters are too good for this total to be set this high tonight.  Dean Kremer is 6-4 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.950 WHIP in his last three starts against three potent lineups in the Astros, Red Sox and Blue Jays.

JP Sears has been a bright spot for the A's this season.  He is 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in six starts while allowing just 6 earned runs and 2 homers in 32 innings.  He faced the Orioles on May 25th earlier this season and pitched 5 shutout innings in a 2-0 victory.

The UNDER is 8-1 in Kremer's nine night starts this season.  The UNDER is 8-1 in A's last nine games vs. AL East opponents.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-135)

The Toronto Blue Jays are highly motivated to chase down a wild card spot in the American League as they enter the month of September and the final month of the season.  This is a great chance for them to make up some ground with the Pirates, Orioles and Rangers their next three series.

They take on a struggling Pirates team that is 4-15 in their last 19 games overall with nothing to play for.  Ace Alek Manoah goes for the Blue Jays tonight.  He is 12-7 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.028 WHIP in 25 starts this season.

He'll be opposed by Johan Oviedo, who will be making just his 2nd start of the season for the Pirates.  He allowed 3 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings of a 6-1 loss to the Cubs in his lone start this season.  Oviedo is now 2-9 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.469 WHIP in 112 1/3 innings in the big leagues in his career.

Pittsburgh is 2-17 in Friday games this season and losing by 3.5 runs per game.  Oviedo's teams are 4-15 in his 19 career starts and losing by 1.9 runs per game.  The Blue Jays are 10-1 in their last 11 games following an off day.  The Pirates are 12-40 in their last 52 games vs. a starting pitcher with less than a 1.15 WHIP.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Friday.

15* CFB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on New Mexico State/Minnesota UNDER 53

Both Jerry Kill and PJ Fleck are big into playing defense and ball control.  I just don't see how they are going to combine to score more than 53 points in this one given their philosophy.  They also have the familiarity of Kill being a former head coach at Minnesota, so I don't expect Fleck to try and run it up on him, either.  This game will slow to a snail's pace in the second half.

Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They can keep Minnesota in check, but I don't see them scoring much at all after managing just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

Minnesota is a 37-point favorite in this game.  Again, Fleck won't be looking to keep scoring late.  Minnesota allowed just 17.3 points and 279 yards per game last season as one of the nation's top defenses.  The Gophers managed just 25.5 points and 360 yards per game last season offensively, so it's not like they are that potent on that side of the ball.  They return just one starter along the offensive line.  They prefer to run the ball and will try and get the ground game going in Week 1, which will help shorten the game as well.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (New Mexico State) - in the first two weeks of the season, after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games, with nine or more defensive starters returning are 70-33 (68%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Golden Gophers last four home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* West Virginia/Pitt ESPN No-Brainer on West Virginia +7.5

Neal Brown enters his fourth season at West Virginia.  After going 5-7 his first year, he has taken the Mountaineers to bowl games each of the past two seasons.  He is doing a great job in recruiting, which is why I'm not concerned at all that the Mountaineers only return 11 starters.  Brown came through with the 27th-best recruiting class in 2022, while Pitt was 57th.

They will be much better offensively with seven starters back.  All five starters return on the offensive line.  Jarrett Doege was holding them back at QB and has transferred.  In comes JT Daniels, who made seven starts at Georgia and came over from USC.  The new offensive coordinator is Graham Harrell, who worked with Daniels at USC so there will be familiarity with the new offense.

The Mountaineers only return four starters on defense, but eight of the top 10 defensive linemen return and this will the strength of the stop unit.  Brown hit the transfer portal hard to fill out the rest of the defense, getting MLB Lee Kpogba from Syracuse, NB Jasir Cox from North Dakota State, CB Rashad Ajayi from Colorado State, SS Marcis Floyd from Murray State and FS Hershey McClaurin from JUCO.  I think the defense will be much better than everyone anticipates as the Mountaineers have been solid on this side of the ball all three seasons under Brown.

Pittsburgh comes into the season with massive expectations after winning the ACC last season and going 11-3 overall.  Keep in mind the Panthers never won more than eight games in the previous six seasons under Pat Narduzzi, and they hadn't won more than eight games in over 10 years.  While the Panthers do have 15 starters back, they lose all of their best players.

QB Kenny Pickett (4,319 yards, 42 TD, 7 INT) was drafted in the first round by the Steelers.  Top receiver Jordan Addison (100 receptions, 1,593 yards, 17 TD) transferred to USC to play under Lincoln Riley.  The loss of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple is also massive as he was the architect of Pitt's record-setting offense.  They will have a completely new scheme under OC Frank Cignetti, who spent the past two years at Boston College.

I just think Pitt comes in overrated based on last year's results.  They should not be laying over a touchdown to an underrated West Virginia team.  This is a heated rivalry as the Backyard Brawl returns for the first time since 2011.  Pitt won't have that big of a home-field advantage for this one, either.  Narduzzi is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Mountaineers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 September games.  Bet West Virginia Thursday.

15* MLB TOTAL OF THE DAY on Orioles/Guardians UNDER 7.5

The UNDER is 9-1 in Orioles last 10 games overall.  They have combined for 7 runs or fewer in six consecutive games and 8 runs or fewer in 10 consecutive games.  The UNDER is 9-0-1 in Guardians last 10 games overall.  The Guardians and their opponents have combined for 7 runs or fewer in 10 consecutive games now.

Ace Shane Bieber goes for the Guardians tonight.  He is 8-7 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.77 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in his last three.  Bieber is 3-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.542 WHIP in three career starts against Baltimore, allowing just 2 earned runs and 13 base runners in 24 innings with 37 K's.

Kyle Bradish has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in six consecutive starts.  He is 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA in his last six starts while allowing just 12 earned runs in 33 2/3 innings with 33 K's.  The UNDER is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Cleveland.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mariners/Tigers OVER 8.5

The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers have quietly been hot at the plate.  The Mariners have scored at least 3 runs in 16 of their last 17 games overall.  The Tigers have scored 4 runs or more in nine of their last 12 games overall and a total of 35 runs in their last five games.

Marco Gonzalez is 9-12 with a 3.97 ERA and 1.386 WHIP in 25 starts this season for the Mariners.  Gonzales has been at his worst on the road, going 3-7 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.612 WHIP in 12 starts away from home.  He is 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA in his last two starts against the Tigers while allowing 7 earned runs and 18 base runners in 10 innings.

Tyler Alexander has been a gas can for the Tigers this season.  He is 1-8 with a 6.59 ERA and 1.512 WHIP in 10 starts this season with only 24 K's in 42 1/3 innings.  Alexander is 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is also 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.857 WHIP in two career starts against Seattle.

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 8.5 ticket as well with 12 MPH winds expected to be blowing out to center at Comerica Park.  The OVER is 10-1-2 in Mariners last 13 road games.  The OVER is 19-4 in Mariners last 23 games after hitting .200 or worse over a five-game span.  The OVER is 9-1-1 in Mariners last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 31-15-5 in Mariners last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 4-0 in Tigers last four games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Padres/Giants OVER 7.5

The San Diego Padres have scored a total of 30 runs in their last four games overall.  They are more than capable of covering this total on their own, but I expect the Giants to chip in as well.  The forecast will help us cash this OVER ticket with 14 MPH winds expected to be blowing out to center at Oracle Park tonight.

Blake Snell has been shaky for the Padres all season.  He is 5-7 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.345 WHIP in 17 starts, including 0-1 with a 9.72 ERA in his last two starts while allowing 9 earned runs and 3 homers in 8 1/3 innings to the Guardians and Nationals.

Logan Webb is having a solid season overall at 11-7 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.192 WHIP in 26 starts.  However, he has really struggled in his last two starts, going 0-2 with an 8.68 ERA in his last two starts against the Tigers and Diamondbacks while allowing 9 earned runs and 20 base runners in 9 1/3 innings.

The OVER is 15-5 in Giants 20 games following three or more consecutive losses this season.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL TOTAL OF THE DAY on Mariners/Tigers OVER 7.5

The Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers have quietly been hot at the plate.  The Mariners have scored at least 3 runs in 15 of their last 16 games overall.  The Tigers have scored 4 runs or more in nine of their last 11 games overall and a total of 32 runs in their last four games.

The forecast is going to help us cash this OVER 7.5 ticket as well with 13 MPH winds expected to be blowing out to left at Comerica Park.  The OVER is 9-1-2 in Mariners last 12 road games.  The OVER is 9-0 in Mariners last nine road games following two consecutive games where they had five or fewer hits.  Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Interleague GAME OF THE WEEK on Oakland A's -104

The Oakland A's are 7-6 in their last 13 games overall with all seven wins as underdogs.  They have scored at least 3 runs in 10 of their last 13 games.  The face a Washington Nationals team that has arguably the worst lineup in baseball now after trading away Soto and Bell.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in seven consecutive games and an average of 2.1 runs per game in the process.

The A's have a big advantage on the mound tonight.  Cole Irvin has posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in 23 starts this season for the A's.  He has been the biggest bright spot on their roster this season and continues to pitch well, firing 7 shutout innings with 11 K's against the Marlins his last time out.

Erick Fedde is 5-8 with a 4.88 ERA and 1.505 WHIP in 20 starts this season for the Nationals while averaging just 4.9 innings per start.  Fedde will be making just his 2nd start back from injury after a month stint on the IL.

The Nationals are 1-9 in home games after scoring 3 runs or fewer in four consecutive games this season.  Washington is 16-40 in its last 56 games following a win.  The Nationals are 14-37 in their last 51 games overall.  Washington is 0-7 in its last seven games following an off day.  The Nationals are 0-8 in their last eight interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the A's Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Twins OVER 8.5

The forecast will help us cash this OVER 8.5 ticket tonight between the Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins.  There is expected to be 12 MPH winds blowing out to center at Target Field tonight.

Brayan Bellow has really struggled for the Red Sox this season.  He is 0-2 with an 8.47 ERA and 2.176 WHIP in four starts this season while allowing 16 earned runs and 37 base runners in 17 innings.

He'll be opposed by Dylan Bundy, who is 7-6 with a 4.56 ERA in 22 starts this season while averaging just 4.9 innings per start.  Bundy is 4-9 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.541 WHIP in 16 career starts against the Red Sox.

The OVER is 17-8-2 in Twins last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 9 runs or more in six of those seven.  Roll with the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)

The Toronto Blue Jays come into this series with the Chicago Cubs highly motivated for a victory.  They were just swept by the Los Angeles Angels over the weekend after going 7-1 in their previous eight games.  The Blue Jays need wins here down the stretch to make the playoffs.

Toronto certainly has the advantage on the mound that should have them winning by two runs or more tonight.  Jose Berrios is 6-1 with a 4.10 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in 12 home starts this season.  The Blue Jays have gone an amazing 11-1 in his 12 home starts.

Javier Assad will be making just his second start of the season for the Cubs.  Assad was lucky to pitch 4 shutout innings against the Cardinals in Game 1 of a double-header in his season debut.  He allowed 8 base runners in those 4 innings.

The Cubs are 8-22 in their last 30 interleague games.  The Blue Jays are 9-2 in their last 11 interleague home games.  Toronto is 7-1 in its last eight games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Blue Jays are 41-16 in their last 57 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Monday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have scored 7 runs or more in six of their last eight games overall.  When they win games, they almost always win by two runs or more, so the way to play them is on the Run Line to save some juice.  The Miami Marlins have scored 3 runs or fewer in 24 of their last 27 games overall.

The Dodgers have a big advantage on the mound tonight as well.  Tony Gonsolin is trying to win the NL Cy Young.  He is 16-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.865 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  He has shown no signs of slowing down, going 3-0 with a 0.96 ERA and 0.696 WHIP in his last three starts.  Gonsolin fired 5 1/3 shutout innings in his lone career start against the Marlins.

Pablo Lopez is 8-8 with a 3.73 ERA in 25 starts this season, including 3-4 with a 4.50 ERA in 12 home starts.  The Dodgers are 41-10 in the second half of the season this season and outscoring opponents by 3.1 runs per game.  The Dodgers are 19-3 in Gonsolin's last 22 starts vs. teams whose hitters average 7 or more strikeouts per game and winning by 3.1 runs per game.  Los Angeles is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday.

20* Braves/Cardinals ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals have two of the hottest lineups in baseball.  The Cardinals have scored 4 runs or more in 23 of their last 29 games overall.  The Braves have scored 4 runs or more in 15 of their last 18 games overall.

Jake Odorizzi is an average starting pitcher at best.  He is 5-5 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.268 WHIP in 16 starts this season while averaging just 5.0 innings per start.  Adam Wainwright has been good at 9-9 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.171 WHIP in 25 starts, but this will be one of his toughest challenges of the season.

The forecast will help aid us in cashing this OVER ticket.  Temps in the upper-80's and 10 MPH winds blowing out to center are expected tonight.  The OVER is 8-0 in Braves last eight road games vs. a team with a winning record.  The OVER is 9-1 in Braves 10 road games vs. a NL starting pitcher with a 3.20 ERA or better this season.  The OVER is 7-0 in Cardinals last seven during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-115)

The Toronto Blue Jays had won seven of their previous eight games before getting upset by the Angels in each of the first two games in this series.  It's safe to say they will highly motivated to avoid the sweep in Game 3, and I like their chances of winning by multiple runs today due to their advantage on the mound.

Ross Stripling is 5-3 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in 17 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.932 WHIP in nine home starts.  He'll be opposed by Tucker Davidson, who is 2-4 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.662 WHIP in six starts this season with 20 walks and only 14 K's in 27 2/3 innings.

Toronto is 27-11 in its last 38 games after scoring one run or less and winning by 2.1 runs per game in this spot.  Los Angeles is 4-17 after allowing 3 runs or less in two consecutive games this season and losing by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  The Angels are 27-56 in their last 83 games overall.  The Blue Jays are 8-1 in their last nine games after losing the first two games of a series.  Toronto is 41-15 in its last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take the Blue Jays on the Run Line Sunday.

20* Giants/Jets NFLX No-Brainer on New York Giants +3

No analysis for preseason.

20* AL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Yankees/A's OVER 8

The forecast will help us cash this OVER 8 ticket between the New York Yankees and Oakland A's tonight.  There is expected to be 14 MPH winds blowing out to center at the Coliseum tonight so the ball should be flying out.

The Yankees are more than capable of covering this total on their own.  They'll be up against Adam Oller, who is 2-6 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.673 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-4 with a 7.96 ERA and 1.654 WHIP in five home starts.  Giancarlo Stanton is back for the Yankees, and they should have Anthony Rizzo back int he lineup tonight.

The A's have scored at least 3 runs in eight of their last 11 games overall.  They should be able to contribute to this OVER by getting to Domingo German, who is 0-2 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.339 WHIP in four road starts this season.  German is 0-1 with a 7.92 ERA and 1.811 WHIP in four career starts against the A's as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Tigers/Rangers AL ANNIHILATOR on OVER 8

The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers.  Two gas can starting pitchers go for the Tigers and Rangers.  The Tigers have scored at least 4 runs in seven of their last nine games overall.  The Rangers have scored a total of 29 runs in their last three games overall.

Dallas Keuchel has been arguably the worst starter in baseball this season.  He is 2-7 with an 8.71 ERA and 2.033 WHIP in 12 starts this season while allowing 49 earned runs and 10 homers in 50 2/3 innings.  Keuchel allowed 4 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 1/3 innings of an 11-7 victory over the Tigers in his lone start against them this season.

Eduardo Rodriquez is 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in four road starts this season.  Rodriquez has posted a 5.73 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in six career starts against the Rangers.  He has allowed 16 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings in his last three starts against Texas.

The OVER is 7-3-1 in Tigers last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 33-16-7 in the last 56 meetings in Texas.  The OVER is 8-0-1 in Rangers last nine games when their opponent scored 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NFLX Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Philadelphia Eagles +2

No analysis for preseason.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Connecticut +28

The UConn Huskies are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2022.  I love the Jim Mora hire.  He joined the staff for the final four games last year so he could recruit for this season.  He retained his DC in Lou Spanos, who held the same position under Mora at UCLA and was at UConn the last three years.

The Huskies welcome back 15 starters and 54 lettermen.  They return each of their top six tacklers on defense, and they have Penn State transfer Ta'Quan Roberson at quarterback to revive the offense.  They can only be better on both sides of the football.  The Huskies had five games decided by 14 points or less last year and should be more competitive this season.

Utah State is getting a lot of love to open the season after winning the Mountain West last year and going 11-3.  But keep in mind this was a veteran team last year with 19 returning starters.  Now the Aggies have just 12 returning starters in 2022 and only 34 lettermen coming back.

While the Aggies due have QB Logan Bonner back, they lost each of their top three receivers whoe combined for over 3,3300 yards and 31 touchdowns.  There will be some chemistry issues with Bonner and his receivers to start the season.

Defensively, the Aggies are sure to take a step back as well.  They return just five starters on that side of the ball and lose four of their top five tacklers.  Despite winning 11 games last year, keep in mind that the Aggies rarely blew out anyone as they had just two wins by this kind of margin.  It's asking too much of them to win by more than four touchdowns to beat us in the opener.  Take Connecticut Saturday.

20* Northwestern/Nebraska 2022 CFB Season Opener on Northwestern +13.5

Everything went wrong for Northwestern last season.  They finished just 3-9 while having an inexperienced team with eight returning starters.  Now they have 14 starters back and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder to start the season.  Pat Fitzgerald teams are always at their most dangerous when they have been counted out.

We saw this happen a few years ago when the Wildcats went from 3-9 in 2019 to 7-2 in 2020 and a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game.  Expect a similar turnaround in 2022 with all of the experience the Wildcats return.  They have nine starters back on offense and should be greatly improved on that side of the ball.

QB Ryan Hilinski was one of the top recruits in the country when he came out of high school and signed with South Carolina.  He was in the midst of a QB carousel at NW last year as three guys made starts.  Now the job looks to be his from the get go.  He'll have 1,000-yard rusher Evan Hull to hand the ball off to, plus all of his top receivers back outside of Stephon Robinson.  110 career starts return along the offensive line and this could be Fitzgerald's best O-Line in his 17 years here.

There are five starters back on defense.  The Wildcats had allowed 23.6 PPG or fewer in six consecutive season before allowing 29.0 PPG last year.  That's unacceptable under Fitgerald.  This will be one of the most improved defenses in the country with six of the top nine tacklers back.

Once again, Nebraska comes into the 2022 season with massive expectations that are unwarranted.  Scott Frost has gone just 15-29 in his four seasons here despite big expectations every season.  The Huskers are 5-20 in one-score games under Frost, and I expect this game to go down to the wire as well.

The Huskers only return 12 starters and have a ton of new faces this season through the transfer portal.  It will take them a few games to live up to their full potential.  Remember, they lost outright as 7-point road favorites at Illinois 30-22 in the opener last season, and that was Bret Bielema's first game as Illinois head coach.  They have gone 0-4 ATS in season openers under Frost and are just 1-7 ATS in their first two games.

Northwestern is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four meetings decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  The Huskers are once again getting too much love to open the season, while the Wildcats are being grossly disrespected due to last year's results with a very young team.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-124)

The New York Yankees have finally busted out of their slump.  They are 4-0 in their last four games overall with all four wins by two runs or more.  I think they make it five in a row today against the lowly Oakland A's.

Ace Gerrit Cole gets the ball for the Yankees tonight.  He is 9-6 with a 3.41 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in 25 starts this season.  Cole owns the A's, going 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.006 WHIP in nine career starts against them.  His teams have won seven of his nine starts against them with all seven wins by two runs or more.

The A's are 4-17 in home games after scoring 4 runs or less in three straight games this season and losing by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  Oakland is 13-32 as a home underdog this season and losing by 2.5 runs per game.  The Yankees are 4-0 against the A's this season.  Take the Yankees on the Run Line Friday.

25* NFLX GAME OF THE YEAR on Buffalo Bills +7

No analysis for preseason.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Angels/Blue Jays OVER 8.5

The Toronto Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last eight games overall and have scored at least 4 runs in six of those seven victories.  Look for them to hang a big number on the Los Angeles Angels tonight to cover most of this total on their own.

Reid Detmers is 2-2 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.429 WHIP in nine road starts this season while averaging just 4.7 innings per start.  He'll be opposed by Mitch White, who is 0-3 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  White averages just 4.6 innings per start, so both bullpens will be involved early in this one.

The Angels are 13-1 OVER in their last 14 games after scoring 3 runs or less in four consecutive games.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with combined scores of 9 runs or more in six of those seven.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis Cardinals -109

The St. Louis Cardinals are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall while scoring 5 runs or more in eight of the nine victories.  We should not be getting the Cardinals at basically even money today against the lowly Chicago Cubs.

Dakota Hudson has held his own this season at 6-6 with a 4.33 ERA in 22 starts.  He has only allowed 8 homers in 114 1/3 innings.  Hudson has never lost to the Cubs, going 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against them.

Marcus Stroman has been at his worst at home this season for the Cubs.  He is 0-3 with a 6.62 ERA in seven home starts.  Stroman is 1-2 with a 5.53 ERA in five career starts against the Cardinals.  He has allowed 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 10 2/3 innings.

St. Louis is 26-9 with a money line of +100 to -150 this season.  The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss.  St. Louis is 20-6 in its last 26 games overall.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-125)

The St. Louis Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 games overall while scoring 5 runs or more in eight of the nine victories.  They should put it on the Chicago Cubs tonight due to their advantage on the mound in this one.

Luke Farrell will be making his first start of the season for the Cubs.  Farrell has been atrocious at Triple A Iowa this year, going 3-4 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 59 innings pitched.  Farrell is 5-5 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 87 2/3 innings in his career in the big leagues as well.

Miles Mikolas is 10-9 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.023 WHIP in 25 starts this season for the Cardinals.  Mikolas is 4-2 with a 2.26 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Cubs.  Chicago is scoring just 1.8 runs per game in its last four games overall and may be without its best hitter in Wilson Contreras tonight.

Chicago is 1-9 in home games after allowing 8 runs or more this season and losing by 2.3 runs per game in this spot.  The Cubs are 4-28 in their last 32 games as home underdogs of +175 or higher and losing by 3.5 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -141

The Toronto Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last six games overall and starting to rake at the plate again with 5.8 runs per game during this stretch.  Look for them to stay hot against Brayan Bello and the Boston Red Sox tonight as the Blue Jays have a big advantage on the mound in this one.

Jose Berrios is coming off one of his best starts of the season, allowing just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings with 9 K's in a 9-2 road win over the New York Yankees.  Berrios has posted a 3.86 ERA in nine career starts against the Red Sox, including a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts against them while allowing just 4 earned runs in 19 innings.

The Red Sox are 1-4 in their last five games overall.  It's not going to get any better for them with Bryan Bello on the mound.  Bello is 0-2 with a 10.50 ERA and 2.500 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 14 earned runs and 30 base runners in 12 innings.  One of those starts came against the Blue Jays on July 24th when he allowed 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 innings.

Toronto is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last six meetings in Boston.  Toronto is 5-0 in its last five games vs. a right-handed starter.  Take the Blue Jays Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-135)

The Seattle Mariners are as healthy as they have been all season and it is showing at the plate.  They have scored at least 3 runs in 11 consecutive games, including 6 runs or more in five of those.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate against Anibal Sanchez and the lowly Washington Nationals tonight.

The Mariners have a big advantage on the mound today behind George Kirby.  The right-hander is 5-3 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.191 WHIP in 17 starts this season.  He'll be up against a soft Washington lineup that has scored 3 runs or fewer in five of their last six games overall, including 2 runs or fewer in four of those.

Anibal Sanchez is still in search of his first victory this season.  He is 0-4 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six starts this season, allowing a whopping 21 earned runs and 9 homers in 30 innings.  Look for the Mariners to tee off on him this afternoon.

The Nationals are 18-45 in their last 63 games overall.  Seattle is 38-17 in its last 55 games overall.  The Mariners are 8-0 in their last eight Wednesday games.  The Nationals are 1-11 in their last 12 Wednesday games.  Seattle is 6-0 in its last six interleague games.  Roll with the Mariners on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -1.5 (-120)

The Seattle Mariners are as healthy as they have been all season and it is showing at the plate.  They have scored at least 3 runs in 10 consecutive games, including 6 runs or more in five of those.  Look for them to stay hot at the plate against Erick Fedde and the lowly Washington Nationals tonight.

Fedde is 5-7 with a 4.95 ERA and 1.543 WHIP in 19 starts this season.  He has been at his worst on the road, going 3-3 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.677 WHIP in nine starts away from home.  The Mariners are sure to hang a big number on him tonight.

2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray has been solid for the Mariners this season at 9-8 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.197 WHIP in 24 starts with 166 K's in 142 innings.  Ray has been at his best at home, going 4-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 0.983 WHIP in 13 home starts.  He'll be up against a woeful Nationals lineup that is scoring 3.7 runs per game overall and 3.6 runs per game vs. left-handed starters.  They have been even worse since trading away Soto and Bell, their two best hitters.

Seattle is 9-2 following an off day this season and winning by 4.1 runs per game in this spot.  The Nationals are 18-44 in their last 62 games overall.  Washington is 0-5 in its last five games following an off day.  The Nationals are 0-7 in their last seven interleague games vs. a left-handed starter.  Seattle is 37-17 in its last 54 games overall.  Roll with the Mariners on the Run Line Tuesday.