15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +180

The Kansas City Royals are showing perhaps their best value of the season tonight as nearly a 2-to-1 road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. Losers of seven straight coming in, there's no question that the Royals are hungry for a victory tonight, especially after losing the first two games of this series.

Luis Mendoza has pitched admirably of late, going 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three starts for the Royals. That's impressive considering he has been up against the Angels twice and the A's, which boast two of the best lineups in baseball. Mendoza is also 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.125 WHIP over four road starts.

Lance Lynn has put together a solid season thus far for St. Louis, but he also got off to a fast start last year before blowing up. Lynn also faced the Royals once last year, giving up 6 earned runs and three homers over 5 1/3 innings. In his lone career start at St. Louis, Mendoza allowed just 2 earned runs over 6 innings of a 5-3 victory in 2012.

Kansas City is a very profitable 32-36 (+19.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 or more over the last 3 seasons. The Royals are also a solid 27-26 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Royals Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -108

The Milwaukee Brewers are hungry for a victory tonight to put an end to their 4-game losing streak. That includes back-to-back losses to the Minnesota Twins in the first two games of this series.

I like Milwaukee's chances of getting back on the winning track given the edge it has on the mound in this one. Marco Estrada has gone 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in five road starts, and 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in his last three starts overall.

Sam Deduno has only made one start this season for Minnesota, and it wasn't pretty. He allowed six earned runs and 12 base runners over 5 1/3 innings of a 6-0 loss at Detroit on May 24th.

The Brewers are 4-1 in Estrada's last 5 road starts. The Twins are 1-11 in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Minnesota is 0-5 in its last 5 home games overall. The Twins are 0-5 in Deduno's last 5 starts as an underdog. These four trends combine for a 25-2 system backing Milwaukee. Roll with the Brewers Wednesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+125)

The Atlanta Braves will throttle the Toronto Blue Jays by two-plus runs Wednesday due to the massive edge they have on the mound. That's why I have elected to play the Run Line and get us some more value for our buck.

Kris Medlen has been one of the most underrated starters in the league over the past two seasons. He has picked up right where he left off last year, posting a 3.16 ERA over 10 starts in 2013. In fact, Medlen sports a 2.08 ERA and 1.192 WHIP through four home starts this season.

Esmil Rogers is no more than a spot starter in this league. He has posted a 4.56 ERA and 1.479 WHIP over 25 2/3 innings out of the bullpen for Toronto this year. He will be making his first start of the season tonight. Rogers has faced the Braves once in his career, giving up 7 earned runs over 1 2/3 innings for a massive 37.72 ERA.

Atlanta is 25-6 (+18.7 Units) against the money line after a one run win over the last 2 seasons. It is winning by 2.7 runs/game in this spot. Medlen is 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are winning by a whopping 3.9 runs/game in this spot. Take the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +111

The Baltimore Orioles get the nod Tuesday as a road underdog to the Washington Nationals. They will be starting one of the best pitching prospects in baseball tonight, but most of the public doesn't know about Kevin Gausman, which has the Orioles way undervalued tonight.

Selected No. 4 overall in the 2012 draft, Gausman (0-1, 7.20 ERA) compiled a 3.11 ERA while striking out 49 and walking five over eight starts spanning 46 1-3 innings with Double-A Bowie this season. Sure, his MLB debut wasn't great as he gave up four runs over 5 innings in a 6-12 loss to the Blue Jays, but he'll have a much better go of it tonight.

Despite a lackluster line, Gausman, who hit as high as 99 mph on the stadium gun, received high praise from Blue Jays manager John Gibbons. "He had some good composure. It looked like he belonged out there," Gibbons said. "For a debut, I thought he did a heck of a job. It looks like he'll have a bright future - he's got a great arm."

Washington will be giving the ball to 25-year-old Nate Karns, who replaces the injured Ross Detwiler in the rotation. Karns went 4-2 with a 4.60 ERA over nine starts this year for Double-A Harrisburg, and he's nowhere near the prospect that Gausman is.

The Orioles are 9-1 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. In fact, the Orioles are 7-0 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nationals are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Orioles Tuesday.

25* NBA Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana Pacers +3

The Indiana Pacers represent my strongest release for the entire 2013 NBA playoffs in Game 4 tonight. They should not be an underdog at home, and I fully expect them to beat the Miami Heat outright to even this series.

Indiana clearly relaxed a little after taking Game 2 from Miami and earning home-court advantage. Meanwhile, Miami came out in Game 3 wanted to get back its home court. I look for these teams to reverse roles mentally tonight, with the Pacers fighting to get to 2-2, while the Heat realizing that they can lose Game 4 and still have home-court advantage the rest of the way.

The Pacers have been one of the best home teams in the league this season. They are 36-12 at home this year, including 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the playoffs. Their Game 3 loss to the Heat was their first home setback of the postseason.

Indiana is 24-13 ATS following a loss this season, including 13-5 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. The Pacers are 13-4 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season this season. Bet the Pacers in Game 4 Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Cleveland Indians +138

The Cleveland Indians should not be this big of an underdog to the Cincinnati Reds tonight, let alone an underdog at all. I'll take advantage of this line mistake and back the Indians to bounce back with a Game 2 victory after falling in Game 1, and losing four straight overall coming in.

Cleveland's last win came with Zach McAllister on the mound in a 12-3 triumph at Boston on May 23rd. McAllister is one of the most underrated starters in the league this year, going 4-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.214 WHIP through nine starts in 2013.

Mat Latos (3.17 ERA) is having a solid season for Cincinnati with slightly worse numbers than McAllister. However, he has struggled of late, posting a 5.14 ERA over his last three starts despite facing light-hitting lineups in the Mets, Marlins and Brewers. Latos has also posted a 7.36 ERA in two career starts against the Indians.

Cleveland is 12-3 (+10.6 Units) against the money line with a rested bullpen that threw <= 2 innings in each of the last 2 games over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 5-0 in McAllister's last 5 starts overall. Cleveland is 4-0 in McAllister's last 4 starts as an underdog. Roll with the Indians Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Mound Mismatch on Philadelphia Phillies +113

The Philadelphia Phillies have a huge edge on the mound tonight over the Boston Red Sox. They should not be an underdog as a result, and I'll gladly back them at this excellent price with one of the best starters in the game on the mound.

Cliff Lee continues to pitch at a Cy Young-caliber level for the Phillies. The left-hander has gone 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 1.018 WHIP through 10 starts this season, 4-1 with a 1.60 ERA and 0.822 WHIP in six road starts, and 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.913 WHIP in his last three starts.

Ryan Dempster has proven to be a bad addition to Boston's rotation. The veteran right-hander has gone 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 10.66 ERA and 2.447 WHIP in his last three.

Lee sports a 3.81 ERA and 1.232 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Red Sox. Dempster has posted a 5.52 ERA and 1.624 WHIP in 17 career starts against Philadelphia.

The Phillies are 11-2 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 5-0 in Lee's last 5 starts as an underdog. Philadelphia is 18-4 in Lee's last 22 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Phillies Tuesday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 4 No-Brainer on Memphis -3

The Memphis Grizzlies have absolutely no quit in them. This team is not going to give in even though they are down 3-0. Memphis still believes it has a chance to come back and win this series against the odds. It starts with a home victory in Game 4 tonight.

Before their home loss to the Spurs in Game 3, the Grizzlies were undefeated at home in the playoffs. Their fans will come out and support them like they have all season. Memphis is now 37-10 at home this season.

This play falls into a system that is 53-20 (72.6%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%).

Memphis is 21-6 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are a perfect 7-0 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games this season. They are bouncing back to win by 9.4 points/game in this spot. Bet the Grizzlies Monday.

15* Angels/Dodgers Interleague ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles Dodgers +101

Zach Greinke should NEVER be a home underdog. This guy has dominated at home over the last several seasons with a ridiculous winning percentage for his team. I'll gladly back Greinke and the Dodgers tonight at this price.

Greinke is a perfect 19-0 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. His teams are winning by 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Greinke is 30-4 (+24.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons. Enough said. Roll with the Dodgers Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +143

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox tonight. They should not be a dog in this contest given the edge they have on the mound.

Tyler Cloyd is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has gone 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.125 WHIP through two starts this season. He is clearly the better starter in this one.

Boston's Alfredo Aceves has been atrocious in limited action this season, and he's not worthy of being a starter in this league. Aceves has posted an 8.20 ERA and 2.032 WHIP through 18 2/3 innings this year, giving up 17 earned runs, 38 base runners and 6 homers.

The Phillies are 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Philadelphia is also 5-0 in its last 5 games following a loss. The Red Sox are 0-5 in Aceves' last 5 home starts. Boston is 0-5 in Aceves' last 5 starts as a favorite. These four trends combine for a 21-0 system backing Philadelphia. Take the Phillies Monday.

20* Heat/Pacers Game 3 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +110

The Indiana Pacers are going to pull off the upset in this series. I'm going to continue to back them in Game 3 tonight as they take a 2-1 series lead on the Miami Heat.

Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league.

Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play.

Indiana is 36-11 SU & 28-19 ATS at home this season. The Pacers have not lost in the playoffs at home, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in six playoff games. I'll gladly put my hard-earned money on the Pacers as an underdog at home tonight in Game 3.

The Pacers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Pacers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Heat are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Finals games. Indiana is 20-11 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season. Bet the Pacers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on the Chicago Cubs +175

Matt Garza is going to dominate the Cincinnati Reds tonight. The Cubs gave up a 2-1 lead late last night, but they're not going to give up the lead that Garza gives them tonight.

Garza was dominant in his first start back with the Cubs. He pitched five shutout innings while striking out five against the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 21st.

Garza will be up against Johnny Cueto, who is also returning from injury. He has posted a 4.11 ERA and 1.305 WHIP in his last three starts. He has not been sharp enough of late to warrant being this big of a favorite.

This play falls into a system that is 63-36 (63.6%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (CINCINNATI) - having won 12 or more of their last 15 games, top level team, winning 62% or more of their games on the season. Bet the Cubs Sunday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 3 No-Brainer on Memphis -5

This is a must-win game for the Memphis Grizzlies. After falling short in overtime in Game 2, the Grizzlies find themselves down 2-0. I look for them to play with a sense of urgency, while the Spurs take their foot off of the gas just enough tonight to allow Memphis to win and cover.

Memphis has been one of the best home teams in the league all season. It has gone 37-9 SU & 28-16 ATS at home this year. In fact, the Grizzlies have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the playoffs at home, beating the Clippers by 12, 21 and 10 points, and topping the Thunder by 6 points twice.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series in recent meeting as well. The home team has won seven straight meetings between Memphis and San Antonio. Tony Parker continues to be bothered by an injured calf, while Memphis is 100% healthy coming into this one.

The Grizzlies are 21-5 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Memphis is 14-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season. The Grizzlies are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Bet Memphis in Game 3 Saturday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies +140

The Philadelphia Phillies get the call Saturday as a big road underdog to the Washington Nationals. Given the edge the Phillies have on the mound in this one, they should not be the dog at all.

Jonathan Pettibone remains one of the most underrated starters in the league given this line. The right-hander has gone 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA through six starts this season, and the Phillies are 5-1 in those contests.

Dan Haren is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The veteran right-hander is clearly past his prime, going 4-5 with a 5.54 ERA and 1.431 WHIP through nine starts this season. He just gave up 7 earned runs and 11 base runners over 5 innings in his last start at San Diego on May 19th.

Haren is 0-3 with a 6.14 ERA and 1.409 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia. His teams are 0-4 in those four contests, so he has never beaten the Phillies. We'll take this 100% never lost trend straight to the bank tonight. Roll with the Phillies Saturday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates +118

The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing solid value as an underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers. Pittsburgh has been one of the best teams in the league this year at 29-19, while Milwaukee is just 19-27. The Pirates have won 11 of their last 14, while the Brewers have lost 16 of their last 21.

With the edge the Pirates have on the mound in this one, they should not be the dog. Jeff Locke has gone 4-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in four road starts.

Mike Fiers is no more than a spot starter for Milwaukee. He has only made one start this season, allowing six earned runs and 10 base runners over 5 innings of a 2-9 loss to Arizona. Fiers is 1-1 with a 6.13 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh.

Milwaukee is 4-15 (-12.2 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season. The Pirates are 11-1 in their last 12 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Brewers are 1-7 in their last 8 games as a favorite. The Brewers are 0-4 in Fiers' last 4 home starts. Bet the Pirates Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +165

The Chicago Cubs are showing perhaps their best value of the entire season as a big road underdog to the Cincinnati Reds Saturday. Travis Wood is one of the most underrated starters in the league, and that's evident by this ridiculous line.

I believe the Cubs should actually be the favorite with Wood on the mound. The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 2.24 ERA and 0.912 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.709 WHIP in three road starts.

Homer Bailey has been solid for Cincinnati as well with a 3.09 ERA on the season. However, Bailey has posted a 5.12 ERA and 1.586 WHIP in 10 career starts against Chicago.

Bailey is 8-17 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons. The Cubs are 4-1 in Wood's last 5 starts vs. National League Central. opponents. The Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Cubs Saturday.

15* MLB Friday Night BAILOUT on Seattle Mariners +114

The Seattle Mariners actually have the edge on the mound tonight, thus they should not be an underdog to the Texas Rangers. Joe Saunders is clearly the better starter in this match-up with Justin Grimm.

Saunders is 3-0 with a miniscule 0.94 ERA and 0.872 WHIP through four home starts in 2013. Grimm is 1-2 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.571 WHIP through four road starts this season.

Seattle is 27-9 (+27.7 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Saunders is a very profitable 17-8 (+10.6 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 or higher since 1997. Bet the Mariners Friday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7

The Indiana Pacers fought hard in Game 1 as they were covering the +8 number for all 53 minutes of that contest. They fell just short, losing on a last-second layup in overtime. This has been a resilient team all year, and I look for them to bounce back in Game 2.

I have no doubt the Pacers are capable of winning this game outright, I'm just taking the points for some insurance. As I stated with my play on Indiana in Game 1, this is simply a tough match-up for the Heat, and a great one for the Pacers.

Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league.

Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play.

Indiana realizes it cannot afford to fall down 2-0 if it wants to win this series. That's why I look for it to lay everything on the line in Game 2, which will be enough to cover this lofty spread. According to some comments after the game, it's clear that the Pacers are more inspired by how close they came to winning in Game 1, rather than disappointed. So, I love the mindset of this team coming in.

Indiana is 47-22 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 25 or more fouls since 1996. The Pacers are 23-13 ATS following a loss this season, and 18-7 ATS after a road loss. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The underdog is 29-14-1 ATS in the last 44 meetings. Bet the Pacers in Game 2 Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles -109

The Baltimore Orioles are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the Toronto Blue Jays. With the edge they have on the mound, there's no doubt they win in a blowout tonight.

Chris Tillman is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 3-2 with a 3.52 ERA through nine starts this season, and he's 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA through three home starts.

The Blue Jays are giving the ball to Sean Nolin for the first time this season. He's at a huge disadvantage tonight going up against Tillman, who has posted a 3.89 ERA and 1.108 WHIP through six starts in 2013.

Toronto is 2-11 (-9.5 Units) against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game this season. The Orioles are 6-1 in Tillman's last 7 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 Friday games. Take the Orioles Friday.

20* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +165

The Minnesota Twins are showing their best value of the season tonight as a big road underdog to the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are a very tired team as their game finished around midnight last night after two long rain delays at Cleveland.

Rick Porcello is the worst starter in Detroit's rotation, so the Tigers are at their most vulnerable with him on the mound. Porcello is 2-2 with a 6.25 ERA and 1.389 WHIP through seven starts this season.

Scott Diamond is clearly an underrated starter in this league, especially on the road. Diamond is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.737 WHIP through three road starts this season. The left-hander is also 2-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.185 WHIP in six career starts against Detroit.

Minnesota is a perfect 5-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 this season. The Tigers are 2-12 in Porcello's last 14 starts with 5 days of rest. The Twins are 5-1 in Diamond's last 6 road starts. Minnesota is 4-0 in Diamond's last 4 starts vs. AL Central opponents. Bet the Twins Thursday.

15* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Baltimore Orioles +123

The Baltimore Orioles give the ball to an unfamiliar starter tonight in Kevin Gausman as he makes his MLB debut. That's why I believe they are being undervalued in this contest with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Gausman, the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft, will be a household name before long. He was solid in spring training, then went 2-4 with a 3.11 ERA this season with Double-A Bowie. He also has 49 strikeouts compared to only five walks in 46 1/3 innings.

"He has the best stuff and the most consistent control of just about any pitcher that we have in the organization, so we thought employing his strength for our major league team was the way to go," executive vice president Dan Duquette said in matter-of-fact fashion Wednesday.

Gausman will be up against Brandon Morrow, who has been sub-par this season to say the least. The right-hander has gone 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in eight starts for the last-place Blue Jays. Morrow is also 3-3 with a 4.55 ERA in 10 career starts against the Orioles.

Baltimore is a very profitable 61-47 (+26.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Toronto is 2-11 (-9.5 Units) against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game this season. The Orioles are 9-1 in their last 10 Thursday games. Baltimore is 21-10 in its last 31 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Orioles Thursday.

20* Pacers/Heat Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +8

I've believed that Indiana has been the most underrated team in the entire 2013 playoffs. Once again, the Pacers are undervalued in Game 1 of this series with the Miami Heat as a massive 8-point road underdog.

Miami could not have had an easier path to the Eastern Conference Finals. It got to face the only team in the playoffs with a losing record in Milwaukee, and it also played a depleted Chicago Bulls team that just simply did not have the talent to be competitive.

I believe that easy path is going to work against the Heat as they won't be ready for the fight they are going to get from Indiana in Game 1. They have basically just had to go through the motions to this point to win games, but that won't be the case against the Pacers.

Plus, Miami is going to be rusty coming into this one. The Heat have not played since beating Chicago 94-91 on May 15th. It had a big layoff after sweeping the Bucks on April 28th, and didn't get to start the Chicago series until May 6th. It would come out rusty and lose to the Bulls 86-93 at home in Game 1.

Remember, the Pacers took a 2-1 series lead in the playoffs against Miami last year before losing the last three. Also, the Pacers have won two out of three against the Heat this season. They simply match up well with Miami considering Paul George and Lance Stephenson are two of the most underrated defenders in the league.

Both George and Stephenson can check Lebron James and Dwyane Wade as well as anyone in the NBA. Plus, the Pacers have a big edge inside with Roy Hibbert and David West. They can exploit Miami's biggest weakness, which is its interior play.

The Pacers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Indiana is 39-18 ATS after 2 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent since 1996. The Pacers are 46-26 ATS in road games after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 25 or more fouls since 1996. Bet Indiana Wednesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -1.5 (-120)

The Kansas City Royals are looking to get back on track in this series with the lowly Houston Astros. They had lost four straight after a Game 1 loss, but they bounced back with a 7-3 victory last night.

I like the Royals' chances of a two-plus run triumph once again tonight given the massive edge they have on the mound. James Shields looks to continue his dominance while outdueling Jordan Lyles.

Shields has posted a 2.45 ERA and a 0.955 WHIP through nine starts this season, including a 1.50 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in his last three. Lyles has gone 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.737 WHIP in four starts, including 1-1 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three home starts.

Houston is 25-86 (-38.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by 2.4 runs/game in this spot. Lyles is 9-32 (-17.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 3 seasons. He is losing by 2.5 runs/game in this spot. Bet the Royals on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +125

The Chicago Cubs get the nod Wednesday at an excellent price against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Francisco Liriano is getting way too much respect here, while Jeff Samardzija is once again being undervalued.

I have no doubt that Samardzija is the better starter in this one folks. Chicago's ace has been solid this season, posting a 3.49 ERA and 1.200 WHIP with 64 strikeouts over 56 2/3 innings.

Sure, Liriano has pitched well, but he has only made two starts this season. His 1.64 ERA through those two starts is a little misleading because he was able to get out of trouble. He put plenty of runners on base with his 1.545 WHIP, allowing 17 base runners over 11 innings.

Samardzija owns the Pirates, going 3-0 with a 0.72 ERA and 0.400 WHIP in three starts having never lost. He has allowed just two earned runs and 10 base runners over 25 innings while striking out 23. Roll with the Cubs Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+119)

Justin Verlander just lost to Ubaldo Jimenez and the Cleveland Indians on May 11th at home by a final of 6-7. I look for Verlander to come back extra motivated tonight to get revenge on Jimenez and company.

Verlander has gone 4-4 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.296 WHIP through nine starts this season. Jimenez has gone 3-2 with a 5.31 ERA in eight starts, including 1-2 with a 9.72 ERA in four home starts. Jimenez is also 5-7 with a 5.12 ERA in 14 career starts against Detroit.

Detroit is 45-28 against the run line (+20.9 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. I look for Verlander to match Max Scherzer's gem last night en route to a 5-1 Detroit victory. Take the Tigers on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Louis Cardinals -137

After losing Game 1 of this series to San Diego 4-2, I look for the St. Louis Cardinals to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 behind ace Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals have a big edge on the mound in this one.

Wainwright is 5-3 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.005 WHIP through nine starts this season, and 3-2 with a 0.97 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in five career starts against San Diego. Edinson Volquez is 3-4 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in nine starts this year, and 2-4 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in nine career starts against St. Louis.

St. Louis has been remarkable at bouncing back from a loss this season. It has only gone on a losing streak twice, and those were two and three games skids. The Cardinals are 13-3 following a loss in 2013, and 20-6 in their last 26 games following a loss since last year.

The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wainwright's last 5 starts as a road favorite. St. Louis is 7-1 in its last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Cardinals are 11-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season. Roll with St. Louis Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Spurs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +5.5

Almost everything that could go right for San Antonio in Game 1 of this series did. The Spurs shot 52.6% from the field, including 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range.

I look for Memphis to make the proper adjustments, which will certainly help cool off the Spurs as they clearly won't shoot nearly that well again. This has been a resilient Grizzlies' team all year, and I fully expect them to give San Antonio all it can handle in Game 2.

Memphis is still a blistering 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. San Antonio should not be a bigger favorite than it was in Game 1, which is another reason why I believe there is a lot of value in backing the Grizzlies here in Game 2. The public is overreacting from the Spurs' blowout win in Game 1.

The Grizzlies are 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Lionel Hollins is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more as the coach of Memphis. Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -127

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing excellent value as a small road favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. Given the edge they have on the mound, they should be a much heavier favorite in this one.

There have been some rumors surrounding the possible firing of manager Don Mattingly. He didn't necessarily call anyone out, but he did say that he needed Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke to be dominant, and for Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to produce more in the meat of their line-up.

Los Angeles responded well last night with a 3-1 victory over Milwaukee in Game 1 behind a complete game from Kershaw, and a couple of homers from Kemp and Ethier. Now, I fully expect a dominant outing from Zach Greinke tonight.

Greinke has gone 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.780 WHIP through three starts this season. He'll be up against Hiram Burgos, who is 1-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.500 WHIP through five starts this year. The Brewers are just 3-15 in May games this season.

Greinke is 26-8 (+16.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is 4-16 (-11.6 Units) against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. Greinke is 41-14 (+21.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Take the Dodgers Tuesday.

15* MLB Mound Mismatch PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -109

Arizona starter Patrick Corbin has been one of the most underrated starters in the league all season. He continues to get overlooked by oddsmakers tonight as only a small favorite over the washed up Jon Garland and the Colorado Rockies.

Corbin has gone 6-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 1.069 WHIP over eight starts in 2013, and the Diamondbacks are a perfect 8-0 in those eight contests. The left-hander is also 3-0 with a 0.89 ERA and 1.082 WHIP over his last three starts.

Jon Garland is far past his prime. The veteran right-hander is 3-4 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last three.

Corbin is 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his last two starts against Arizona, allowing three earned runs over 13 2/3 innings of work. Garland is 3-4 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in nine career starts against Arizona. He allowed four runs, three earned, and 10 base runners over 6 innings in a 2-4 loss at Arizona on April 28th.

Corbin is 9-0 (+9.4 Units) against the money line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. The Diamondbacks are 11-1 in Corbin's last 12 starts overall. Take Arizona Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -132

The Los Angeles Dodgers should be a much heavier favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers tonight with ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound. They have a huge edge on the rubber over Yovani Gallardo and the Brewers in this one.

Kershaw has gone 4-2 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.871 WHIP through nine starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA and 0.794 WHIP in his last three. The former Cy Young winning has pitched eight shutout innings in two of his last three starts against Milwaukee.

Yovani Gallardo has completely lost it this season. That's probably a big reason why he got a DWI earlier this year. Gallardo has gone 3-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.462 WHIP through nine starts in 2013. He is also 1-3 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in six career starts against Los Angeles.

Kershaw is 16-2 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. The Brewers are 0-8 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter. Milwaukee is 0-6 in its last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. These three trends combine for a 30-2 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Dodgers Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Twins +144

The Atlanta Braves have no business being this heavily favored over the Minnesota Twins Monday. The Twins actually have the edge on the mound in this one, yet they are a big road underdog here.

Kevin Correia has been going under the radar all season. The right-hander has gone 4-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.230 WHIP through eight starts in 2013. Correia is 3-2 with a 3.47 ERA in seven career starts against Atlanta as well.

Julio Teheran had a solid spring training for Atlanta, but he hasn't been able to convert that success into the regular season. Teheran is 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in seven starts this year, including 0-0 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.936 WHIP over two home starts.

Correia is a very profitable 36-36 (+17.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher since 1997. The Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games, and 2-7 in their last 9 interleague home games. Roll with the Twins Monday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 1 No-Brainer on Memphis +4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This has been the most underrated team in the league all season, and it's still the case in the playoffs.

I would normally have a longer analysis than this, but there's just no need to beat around the bush. Memphis is going to win this Game 1 outright, but I'm just taking the points for some insurance. Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NL Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +142

The New York Mets are showing their best value of the season Sunday. The Chicago Cubs shouldn't be this heavily favored against anyone, even the Mets.

Dillon Gee is 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in three career starts against the Cubs. In his last start against Chicago, Gee gave up one earned run over eight innings of a 3-1 victory.

Travis Wood is 6-17 (-12.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Chicago is 40-76 (-32.7 Units) against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Cubs Sunday.

15* AL Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -109

Rarely will you ever get Felix Hernandez at this kind of price. I'll gladly take advantage Sunday as he's only a small favorite over the Cleveland Indians.

This is one of the best starters in the league. Year in and year out, Hernandez goes under the radar because he pitches in Seattle. Hernandez is 5-2 with a 1.53 ERA in nine starts this season, including 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA on the road.

Seattle is 9-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season. After losing the first two games of this series, I look for the Mariners to bounce back in Game 3. Roll with the Mariners Sunday.

20* Knicks/Pacers Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -5

The Indiana Pacers will close out the New York Knicks in Game 6 in blowout fashion. Indiana hasn't lost at home the entire playoffs, and it's not about to start losing today.

This has been one of the best home teams all season, especially in the playoffs. The Pacers are 35-11 SU & 27-19 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by 8.6 points/game.

New York is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* NL Mound Mismatch PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers +150

The Los Angeles Dodgers should never be this big of an underdog given the talent they have on their team. They are showing arguably their best value of the season tonight as a big road underdog to the Atlanta Braves.

Year in and year out, Chris Capuano is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The left-hander is 5-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 10 career starts against Atlanta.

The Dodgers are 19-4 (+16.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Capuano is a very profitable 21-14 (+15.4 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997. Roll with the Dodgers Saturday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers +150

Great value here with the Milwaukee Brewers as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals don't have the kind of edge on the mound that this line would indicate.

Marco Estrada has been dominant away from hitter-friendly Milwaukee. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.949 WHIP through four road starts in 2013.

The Brewers are 10-1 in Estrada's last 11 starts vs. National League Central opponents. Milwaukee is 6-1 in Estrada's last 7 starts during game 2 of a series. The Brewers are 4-1 in Estrada's last 5 starts as an underdog. Take the Brewers Saturday.

20* MLB Mound Mismatch GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City Royals -113

The Kansas City Royals have a massive edge on the mound over the Oakland A's tonight. They should be a much heavier favorite tonight because of it, and I'll gladly take advantage.

James Shields has proven to be the ace that the Royals hoped for when they signed him this offseason. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.783 WHIP in his last three.

Jarrod Parker has been atrocious this season for Oakland. The right-hander is 2-5 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.845 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-3 with a 9.61 ERA and 1.984 WHIP in four home starts.

Shield is 5-3 with a 4.08 WHIP in 12 career starts against Oakland. That includes a complete game shutout in his last start against the A's. Parker is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in one career start against Kansas City.

The A's are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. American League Central opponents. Oakland is 0-5 in Parker's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The A's are 0-4 in Parker's last 4 starts as a home underdog. These three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Kansas City. Bet the Royals Friday.

15* MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington Nationals -130

The Washington Nationals should be a much heavier favorite over the San Diego Padres tonight. They have a big edge on the mound with Gio Gonzalez over Burch Smith in this one.

Gonzalez hasn't been as dominant as he was last season, but he's still 3-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.200 WHIP with 47 strikeouts over 45 innings. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start against San Diego, pitching six shutout innings of a 3-1 victory.

Rookie Burch Smith will get his second turn in the rotation with Clayton Richard on the disabled list. It didn't go well in Smith's major league debut as he allowed six runs and seven base runners before getting pulled after just one inning of work in an 8-7 loss to Tampa Bay.

Gonzalez is 13-2 (+10.4 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are 17-5 in Gonzalez's last 22 road starts. The Nationals are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in San Diego. Take Washington Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Giants/Rockies UNDER 9.5

The books have set the bar way too high tonight in this NL West battle between San Francisco and Colorado. This is an overreaction from yesterday's 8-6 win by the Giants.

The two starters getting the ball tonight have been absolutely dominant. Madison Bumgarner is 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.932 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA and 0.646 WHIP in three road starts. Jorge De La Rosa is 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in eight starts, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in two home starts.

Both starters have been dominant against their opposition as well. Bumgarner is 6-3 with a 2.58 ERA in 12 career starts against Colorado with the UNDER going 7-4-1 in those contests. De La Rosa is 7-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 13 career starts against San Francisco with the UNDER going 8-5 in those games.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Bumgarner's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Bumgarner's last 5 starts vs. National League West. The UNDER is 6-1 in De La Rosa's last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. These three trends combine for a 16-1 system backing the UNDER tonight. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Dodgers +125

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing some of their best value of the season as a road underdog to the Atlanta Braves. They come in playing their best baseball of the season having won four of their last five games overall.

Hyun-Jin Ryu doesn't get the respect he deserves from oddsmakers because he's new to the league this year. The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.212 WHIP with 51 strikeouts in 50 1/3 innings in 2013.

The Braves have lost five of their last six coming in. Paul Maholm is getting way too much respect from the books in the early going despite being just 4-4 with a 3.94 ERA on the season.

Maholm gave up six earned runs and 11 base runners over 4 1/3 innings last time out in a 1-10 loss to San Francisco. The left-hander is 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in nine career starts against Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are 19-3 (+17.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 0-7 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Bet the Dodgers Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -115

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back Cliff Lee as this small of a home favorite against anyone. I'll take advantage tonight and back the veteran left-hander against the Cincinnati Reds Friday night.

Lee continues to prove that he's one of the best starters in the game. The former Cy Young winner is 4-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.076 WHIP through eight starts this season. He is coming off an awesome start at Arizona in which he pitched seven shutout innings of a 3-1 Phillies' victory.

Lee is 6-2 with a 3.91 ERA in 12 career starts against Cincinnati. He has been dominant in his last three starts against the Reds, going 1-0 with a 1.61 ERA while allowing just four earned runs in 22 1/3 innings.

The Reds are 2-7 in their last 9 games as a road underdog. Cincinnati is 1-4 in its last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Phillies are 38-18 in their last 56 meetings with the Reds, including 19-7 in their last 26 home meetings. Roll with the Phillies Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington Nationals -137

The Washington Nationals should be a much heavier favorite Thursday over the San Diego Padres giving the massive edge they have on the mound. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price tonight.

Washington comes in highly motivated for a victory after losing four of its last five overall. Ace Stephen Strasburg is just the guy to get them back on track. The flame-throwing right-hander has posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.176 WHIP through eight starts in 2013.

Edinson Volquez is no match for Strasburg. The right-hander is 3-3 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.557 WHIP through eight starts this year. Volquez is also 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in three career starts against Washington.

The Nationals are 15-5 in Strasburg's last 20 starts as a road favorite. Washington is 20-7 in its last 27 games as a road favorite. The Padres are 0-4 in Volquez's last 4 starts vs. National League East opponents. The Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in San Diego. Take Washington Thursday.

20* Pacers/Knicks TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Indiana +5

I look for the Indiana Pacers to take a page out of the Memphis and Miami's books tonight and close this series out in Game 5. That's especially the case with Miami on deck as they want to be as rested as possible going into that series.

New York had its chance to get back in this series in Game 4, but fell flat on its faces with yet another double-digit road loss to the Pacers. The Knicks feel like they're already beaten, and I hardly expect them to show up tonight as a result.

This play falls into a system that is 72-33 (68.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (NEW YORK) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.

New York is 0-7 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season. It is losing in this spot 95.3 to 106.3, or by an average of 11.0 points/game. Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (+126)

After getting embarrassed 12-2 by the Seattle Mariners last night, I look for the New York Yankees to bounce back with a blowout victory of their own in Game 3 of this series Thursday. With the huge edge they have on the mound, the Yankees won't have a problem winning by two-plus runs tonight.

The ageless Andy Pettite continues to get it done in the big leagues. The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.276 WHIP through seven starts in 2013.

New York hitters are licking their chops at the opportunity to face Aaron Harang tonight. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 7.30 ERA through five starts this season, including 0-2 with an 8.43 ERA in two road starts.

Pettite is 68-22 (+30.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 since 1997. His teams are winning 6.2 to 3.8 in this spot, or by an average of 2.4 runs/game. Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -140

The Los Angeles Dodgers welcome back Zach Greinke from a broken collarbone tonight. It's perfect timing as the Dodgers are starting to finally play well having won three of their last four coming in.

Greinke was off to a hot start before the injury, going 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.706 WHIP in two starts. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in two career starts against Washington.

Greinke went 11-0 with a 3.13 ERA in 15 home starts in 2011, 8-2 with a 2.98 ERA in 15 home starts in 2012, and he's 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one home starts in 2013. He clearly is most comfortable when pitching at home over the last few seasons going a combined 20-2. He'll get a warm welcome from Los Angeles fans tonight. Roll with the Dodgers Wednesday.

15* Red Sox/Rays ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -120

The Tampa Bay Rays get the nod Wednesday as a small home favorite with 2012 AL Cy Young winner David Price on the mound. Tampa Bay comes in playing its best baseball of the season having won six in a row while scoring at least 4 runs in each victory.

Price got off to a slow start this season, but he's been solid of late. The left-hander is 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA in his last three starts while striking out 22 batters over 21 2/3 innings. Price is 8-4 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.202 WHIP in 16 career starts against Boston.

Jon Lester is off to a fast start this season for the Red Sox, but he's overvalued as a result. He's also coming off a complete game shutout, and it's always hard to come back and pitch well after such a solid performance. Lester is 10-10 with a 4.21 ERA in 25 career starts against Tampa Bay.

The Red Sox are 4-22 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Boston is 7-20 in Lester's last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay is 21-7 in its last 28 home games. Take the Rays Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -118

Rarely will you get the New York Yankees as this small of a home favorite all season. I'll gladly take advantage tonight and back the home team at an excellent price against the lowly Seattle Mariners.

Phil Hughes has pitched well this season, going 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.292 WHIP in four home starts, and 2-0 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in his last three starts overall. Hughes is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA in six career starts against Seattle.

In his last two starts against Seattle, Hughes is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA while allowing just 2 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. Hisashi Iwakuma has pitched well this year, but he's 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in two career starts against New York, allowing 18 base runners and two homers over 10 innings.

The Yankees are 7-0 (+8.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. New York is 41-15 in Hughes' last 56 home starts. The Yankees are 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 starts overall. Bet New York Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers +113

The Milwaukee Brewers should not be an underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates given the massive edge they have on the mound tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price.

Yovani Gallardo is absolutely licking his chops at the opportunity to face Pittsburgh again. Gallardo is 10-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Pirates. The Brewers are 14-1 in those contests.

Wandy Rodriquez has not fared well against Milwaukee, going 8-10 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in 24 career starts. He faced the Brewers once already this season, allowing 7 earned runs and three homers over 3 2/3 innings of a 4-10 loss to Gallardo and company.

Gallardo is 36-11 (+21.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997. Milwaukee is 60-19 in its last 79 meetings with Pittsburgh. Take the Brewers Wednesday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +14.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing their best value of the entire playoffs tonight as a massive 14.5-point underdog to the Miami Heat in Game 5. They have already been counted out in this series, and this is when they are at their best.

Chicago was up 3-1 on the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, and they would lose the next two games, setting up a Game 7. Almost everyone gave them no chance after blowing that 3-1 lead, but I took them on the money line in Game 7, and they won outright to advance to face Miami.

The Bulls simply will not quit. They take after head coach Tom Thibodeau, who refuses to let his team believe that they are down and out. I look for Chicago to take this game right down to the wire with a chance to win in the 4th quarter.

Thibodeau is 10-1 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent as the coach of Chicago. His teams are bouncing back to win 92.4 to 85.5, or by an average of 6.9 points/game in this spot.

Miami is 0-7 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive road wins this season. The Heat are 0-9 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing Chicago. Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Texas Rangers -108

The Texas Rangers should be a much heavier favorite Tuesday over the Oakland A's. After losing Game 1 of this series, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 given the massive edge they have on the mound.

Derek Holland is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The left-hander is 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.007 WHIP through seven starts this season. Holland is 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in eight career starts against Oakland.

Bartolo Colon is well past his prime. He got off to a decent start for Oakland, but has come back down to reality of late. Colon is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs over 15 1/3 innings.

This play falls into a system that is 74-39 (65.5%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts.

Texas is 32-8 (+21.1 Units) against the money line revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons. Colon is 0-11 (-13.9 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. His teams are losing by 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Roll with the Rangers Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on New York Mets +150

The New York Mets are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at a great price in Game 2 of this series tonight.

St. Louis starter John Gast will be making his major league debut tonight, and he's clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers. While Dillon Gee is off to a slow start for New York, he has had a ton of success in the past against tonight's opponent.

Gee is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in two career starts against the Cardinals. He has allowed just four earned runs and nine hits over 14 innings in those two outings against St. Louis.

Gee is 11-4 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. New York is a very profitable 47-42 (+15.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. Take the Mets Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Pacers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on New York +5.5

This is essentially a must-win situation for the New York Knicks as they cannot afford to fall behind 3-1 in this series against the Indiana Pacers. I look for them to respond well and to win Game 4 to nod this series at 2-2, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

After getting upset in Game 1, the Knicks responded very well in Game 2 with a blowout 105-79 victory. This team has proven that it has some resiliency, and I look for that to show tonight on the road in Game 4.

New York is 48-28 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. New York is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Pacers are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Grizzlies TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 184.5

As a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another, and the tougher it is to score points as a result. That was evident in Game 3 of this series as Memphis beat Oklahoma City 87-81 for 168 combined points.

I fully expect this pivotal Game 4 to be similarly low-scoring to Game 3. Memphis controls the tempo playing at home, and it wants to grind it out in the half court. Oklahoma City is unable to run due to Russell Westbrook being out for the season.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 21-6-2 in Thunder last 29 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 12-4 in Grizzlies last 16 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Brewers +135

The Pittsburgh Pirates are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as a big home favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers Monday. I'll gladly side with the value and back the road dog in this one for a couple of different reasons.

The biggest is that I believe Milwaukee actually has the edge on the mound in this one despite what the season numbers say. Marco Estrada has pitched his best away from home this year, going 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.086 WHIP through three road starts for Milwaukee.

What I really love about Estrada is the fact that he has dominated his opposition in the past. Estrada is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in six career starts against Pittsburgh. A.J. Burnett is 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA in nine career starts against the Brewers.

Milwaukee is 59-18 in its last 77 meetings with Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 5-12 in Burnett's last 17 starts. The Brewers are 9-1 in Estrada's last 10 starts vs. National League Central opponents. Milwaukee is 5-0 in Estrada's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. Take the Brewers Monday.

15* MLB Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on New York Mets +180

The New York Mets are showing awesome value Monday as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards do not have the edge on the mound OR at the plate that this line would indicate.

Lance Lynn is off to a fast start for St. Louis, but he was last year, too, and only put up pedestrian numbers by season's end. Lynn is 0-1 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.927 WHIP in one career start against New York, giving up three runs, two earned, and nine base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 0-5 loss in June of 2012.

Jeremy Hefner is a much better starter than he's getting credit for here. He has been dominant of late, posting a 3.00 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last three starts. Hefner has allowed just 7 earned runs and 19 base runners over 21 innings in his last three outings.

St. Louis is scoring just 3.9 runs/game at home this season, while New York is scoring 5.4 runs/game on the road. The Cardinals are 11-24 (-20.8 Units) against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Mets Monday.

15* Angels/White Sox ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +120

The Los Angeles Angels are showing excellent value as a road underdog to the Chicago White Sox tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price.

After a slow start to the season, the Angels are starting to live up to their potential, winning each of their last three games. This is still one of the best teams in the league despite their record. Now, we're finally getting a good price on them, and now is the time to back the Angels.

C.J. Wilson is 22-5 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. His teams are winning 5.2 to 3.1 in this spot, or by an average of 2.1 runs/game. Take Los Angeles Sunday.

15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners +115

The Seattle Mariners are showing excellent value as a home underdog to the Oakland A's Sunday. Seattle starter Joe Saunders is one of the most underrated starters in the league, which is why the Mariners are a dog today.

Saunders has been absolutely dominant at home, going 2-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 0.761 WHIP through three starts. He has allowed just 2 earned runs and 17 base runners over 22 1/3 innings at home this year.

Saunders is 13-6 with a 3.57 ERA in 21 career starts against Oakland. Saunders is 15-6 (+10.1 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997. Roll with the Mariners Sunday.

20* Spurs/Warriors ABC Sunday No-Brainer on OVER 198

There is a ton of value on the OVER in Game 4 between the San Antonio and Golden State. The oddsmakers have set this number lower than any of the first three games.

The books set the total in the first three games at 203, 204.5 and 201.5. I'll gladly take advantage of this value in Game 4, and you should too. Golden State has been at its best when going small ball, and after losing Game 3, I look for the Warriors to go small ball again.

The Spurs are 22-11 to the OVER in road games off a road win over the last 2 seasons. They are combining with their opponents to average 203.3 points/game in this situation. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +175

Can you believe that the Miami Marlins have the edge on the mound Saturday, yet they are nearly a 2-to-1 dog to the Los Angeles Dodgers? What's more, the Dodgers have lost eight straight coming into this one, yet they are getting this much respect from oddsmakers.

I'll gladly gobble up this value and back the Marlins at an excellent price. Kevin Slowey is arguably the single-most underrated starter in the league to this point, going 1-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in seven starts. He's 1-1 with a 0.98 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in three road starts as well.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been solid for Los Angeles, but his numbers pale in comparison to Slowey's. Ryu is 3-2 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in seven starts this season for the Dodgers.

Los Angeles is 0-8 in May games this season. Miami is 25-14 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games in May games over the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers are 0-7 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season. Roll with the Marlins Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Mound Mismatch on Philadelphia Phillies -101

The Philadelphia Phillies have a big edge on the mound tonight over the Arizona Diamondbacks, and they should not be an underdog as a result. After losing the first two games of this series, and three straight overall by exactly one run each, the Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.

I look for them to bounce back with a win behind ace Cliff Lee. The left-hander has been dominant this season, going 3-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in seven starts, including 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in four road starts.

Trevor Cahill is off to a fast start to the season for Arizona, but he's being overvalued as a result. There's no question in my mind that we'll be backing the better starter in Lee, who is 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in five career starts against Arizona.

The Phillies are 17-4 in Lees last 21 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 4-0 in Lee's last 4 starts as an underdog. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Cahill's last 5 starts vs. National League East. Take the Phillies Saturday.

15* Knicks/Pacers ABC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -4

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 after getting blown out in Game 2. They stole Game 1, and then proceeded to not show up in Game 2 because they were simply satisfied with taking home-court advantage from the Knicks.

That blowout in Game 2 will get their attention, and Indiana will be refocused and playing with a chip on its shoulder Saturday. The Pacers are one of the best home teams in the league this season, going 33-11 while outscoring opponents by 8.5 points/game. Indiana won its first three home playoff games over the Atlanta Hawks by 17, 15 and 13 points.

New York is expected to get Amare Stoudemire back in the line-up in this one, and he's likely to play 10-15 minutes. Stoudemire has been a huge plague on this team since Carmelo Anthony joined, and the Knicks for whatever reason struggle with him on the floor.

This play falls into a system that is 70-36 (66%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game).

Mike Woodson is 4-15 ATS in road games in all playoff games in all games he has coached since 1996. Frank Vogel is 34-20 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Indiana. The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The home team has won six of the last seven meetings with Indiana's Game 1 win in New York being the only exception. Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-104)

The Detroit Tigers will have no problem winning by two-plus runs Saturday given the edge they have on the mound in this one. I fully expect you to be counting your chips by the end of the 5th inning ladies and gents.

Detroit gives the ball to 2011 AL Cy Young & AL MVP winner, Justin Verlander Saturday. The right-hander continues to be arguably the best starter in the league this season, going 4-2 with a 1.55 ERA and 1.101 WHIP through seven starts, including 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in his last three.

Ubaldo Jimenez has been atrocious once again in 2012 as he continues to prove that he was one of the worst trades in Cleveland history. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.314 WHIP through six starts this season for the Indians.

Jimenez is 4-7 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Tigers. In his last two starts at Detroit, Jimenez has given up 10 earned runs over 12 2/3 innings in 1-7 and 1-6 losses, respectively.

Verlander is a perfect 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are winning in this spot 4.8 to 1.7, or by an average of 3.1 runs/game. Bet Detroit on the Run Line Saturday.

20* Thunder/Grizzlies ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 188

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder. The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another, and the harder it is to score points.

Memphis and Oklahoma City combined for 184 points in Game 1 and 192 points in Game 2 for an average of 188 combined points. Given my theory, I believe there is a ton of value in the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

Neither team really can run, which is a huge edge towards the UNDER. Oklahoma City is playing at a much slower pace without Russell Westbrook, while Memphis is a half-court team at nature, and it will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

I look for a similar final score to the Memphis/LAC match-up in Game 3 of Round 1. The Grizzlies won that game 94-82 for 176 combined points. Memphis is scoring 94.1 points/game and allowing 87.2 points/game at home this season for a combined average of 181.3 points/game.

This play falls into a system that is 51-26 (66.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a playoff series which is tied, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.

Oklahoma City is 12-4 to the UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Thunder are 17-3 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive home games this season. Memphis is 11-1 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+100)

Clay Buchholz is out to send a message to Toronto Saturday. It was Blue Jays broadcaster Jack Morris last week that accused Buchholz of throwing a spitball, which certainly hurt the pitcher's reputation.

That came after Buchholz pitched 7 shutout innings of a 10-1 victory over Mark Buehrle and the Blue Jays. That dominant start was nothing new for the right-hander, who has simply been mowing down the competition this season.

Buchholz is 6-0 with a 1.60 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in seven starts this season. The Red Sox are 7-0 in those games, winning five by 2 runs or more. Buchholz improved to 9-4 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Blue Jays.

Mark Buehrle is simply washed up and stands no chance of keeping Toronto competitive in this one. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 7.03 ERA and 1.561 WHIP in seven starts this season. Buehrle is 7-9 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.454 WHIP in 20 career starts against Boston.

Boston is 13-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. It is winning by 2.8 runs/game in this spot. Buchholz is 18-3 (+13.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Boston is winning by 2.6 runs/game in this situation. Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on New York Mets -109

The New York Mets are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday. They have a huge edge on the mound in this one, but that's not being reflected in this line like it should be.

Jon Niese has been at his best at home this season for New York, going 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four home starts. Also, Niese is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in three career starts against Pittsburgh, and his teams are 3-0 in those games having never lost.

Francisco Liriano makes his season debut for the Pirates today, and he is simply getting way too much respect from oddsmakers. In his last two seasons, Liriano has gone 9-10 with a 5.09 ERA in 2011, and 6-12 with a 5.34 ERA in 2012. He's clearly washed up.

Niese is 12-2 (+11.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday in his career. His teams are winning 6.2 to 2.4 on average in this spot. The Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 4-0 in Niese's last 4 starts as a favorite. Roll with the Mets Saturday.

20* Spurs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +2.5

The San Antonio Spurs should not be an underdog to the Golden State Warriors in Game 3 Friday. After losing Game 2, I look for the Spurs to come out with a sense of urgency to try and regain home-court advantage with a Game 3 victory.

San Antonio has been one of the best road teams in the league all season at 25-18. The Spurs are 51-14 SU in their last 65 meetings with the Warriors, including 21-11 in their last 32 visits to Golden State.

This play falls into a system that is 24-6 (80%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days.

San Antonio is a deadly 11-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. It has come back to win in this spot 107.8 to 95.8, or by an average of 12.0 points/game. Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -114

The San Francisco Giants should be a much heavier home favorite over the Atlanta Braves Friday night with ace Matt Cain on the mound. Rarely will you get Cain at this kind of price at home, and I'll gladly take advantage tonight.

Cain got off to a slow start this season, which is why he is being undervalued here. However, he came up with his best start of the season last time out, yielding just one earned run over 7 1/3 innings to get the win in a 4-3 home victory over the Dodgers.

Tim Hudson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander, who is far past his prime, has posted a 5.29 ERA in three road starts in 2013. Cain is 3-2 with a 2.68 ERA in seven career starts against Atlanta.

The Giants are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. San Francisco is 40-18 in its last 58 during game 2 of a series. The Giants are 24-8 in Cains last 32 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Take San Francisco Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Indians +181

The Cleveland Indians are showing perhaps their best value of the season as a massive road underdog to the Detroit Tigers tonight. Cleveland is one of the most underrated teams in the league, while Detroit is one of the most overrated.

Cleveland comes in as the hottest team in baseball, yet it is getting no respect from oddsmakers here. The Indians have won 10 of their last 11 games overall to get to 18-4 on the season. Quietly, they have scored 6 or more runs in eight of those 11 contests.

Corey Kluber is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in two starts and two relief appearances in 2013.

Max Scherzer is being way overvalued in this one. Detroit's right-hander has posted a 6.23 ERA in three home starts this season. Scherzer sports a 5.26 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 11 career starts against Cleveland. He has given up 9 earned runs and 21 base runners over 9 1/3 innings in his last two home starts against the Indians.

Cleveland is 18-6 (+12.0 Units) against the money line after a win by 6 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Roll with Cleveland Friday.

15* NL Thursday Mound Mismatch on Philadelphia Phillies +110

The Philadelphia Phillies clearly have the edge on the mound in Game 1 of this series with the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. They should be the favorite, not the underdog as a result.

Cole Hamels remains one of the best starters in the league. Sure, he got off to a slow start this season, but he has returned to form of late. Hamels has posted a 2.05 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in his last three starts.

Pat Corbin is off to a hot start for Arizona, and he's being overvalued as a result. He'll come back down to reality as the season goes on. Hamels is 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in seven career starts against Arizona. The Phillies are 6-1 in those seven games.

Hamels is 30-7 (+19.3 Units) against the money line in May games since 1997. The Phillies are 13-3 in Hamels' last 16 starts vs. National League West. Philly is 7-1 in its last 8 games vs. NL West opponents. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Diamondbacks are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Phillies Thursday.

20* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -110

I look for the New York Mets to crush the Pittsburgh Pirates at home in Game 1 of this series Thursday. Jeff Locke is getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this one folks.

I'll gladly back New York starter Dillon Gee, who has posted a 2.50 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in three home starts this season. Gee is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh. His teams are a perfect 3-0 in those games having never lost.

Locke has faced the Mets once in his career, and it didn't go well. He gave up 5 earned runs and 10 base runners over 3 2/3 innings of a 0-6 loss at New York on September 26th of 2012.

Locke is 0-6 (-8.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are 92-187 in their last 279 games as a road underdog. The Mets are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home favorite. New York is 20-7 in its last 27 home meetings with Pittsburgh. Bet the Mets Thursday.

15* AL Thursday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Minnesota Twins +143

The Minnesota Twins are one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. They have quietly compiled a 15-15 record this season while profiting $1,000/game bettors $5,600.

Boston is undervalued once again tonight as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox, who are overvalued due to their 21-13 start. There's no doubt that the Twins have the edge on the mound in this one, and they shouldn't be the underdog as a result.

Kevin Correia is the definition of underrated. The right-hander has gone 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.137 WHIP through six starts this season for Minnesota. John Lackey is washed up for Boston, though he's 1-2 with a respectable 3.52 ERA and 1.435 WHIP through three starts this season.

Boston is 13-30 (-21.9 Units) against the money line vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Twins are 7-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Red Sox are 9-25 (-19.9 Units) against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 8-21 in its last 29 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Roll with the Twins Thursday.

25* NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Spurs UNDER 205

I'm siding with the UNDER in this Game 2 between the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors as my best total for the entire second round of the playoffs. I successfully cashed in the OVER in Game 1, but I'm going in the other way in Game 2.

After a high-scoring, 129-127 double-overtime victory in Game 1, the books have been forced to set this number higher than it should be. The total was set at 201 for Game 1, and now it's been jacked all the way up to 205, providing us with excellent line value on the UNDER.

Golden State shot lights out in Game 1 at 51.0% behind Stephon Curry's amazing shooting display. He put in 44 points, and there's no way the Warriors light it up again like they did in Game 1 as San Antonio makes the proper adjustments.

Both teams were simply gassed after playing a double-overtime game. I believe that will carry over into this Game 2 as nearly really looks to run the floor like they normally would. I look for this to be a half-court game, and for the shooting to be off due to the tired legs.

This play falls into a system that is 43-12 (78.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

San Antonio is 8-1 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 110 points or more this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Yankees/Rockies Interleague No-Brainer on New York +121

The New York Yankees are showing solid value as a road underdog to the Colorado Rockies tonight. After losing Game 1 of this interleague series 2-0, I look for them to bounce back with a victory in Game 2.

Juan Nicasio is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. He is 3-0 despite a 4.91 ERA and 1.534 WHIP through six starts this season. Nicasio has also posted a 5.79 ERA and 1.501 WHIP in two home starts this year.

Colorado is 1-11 (-11.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series. The Yankees are 4-0 in David Phelps' last 4 starts. The Rockies are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. These four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing New York. Take the Yankees Wednesday.

15* Interleague Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Rangers +106

The Texas Rangers should not be an underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. After losing Game 1 of this interleague series to the Brewers 3-6, I look for the Rangers to bounce back behind red hot starter Derek Holland.

The left-hander has been dominant this season, going 2-2 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.937 WHIP over six starts in 2013. While Kyle Lohse is off to a decent start this season for Milwaukee, he is 3-3 with a 7.28 ERA and 1.766 WHIP in 10 career starts against Texas.

Holland is 15-3 (+11.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 69-27 in their last 96 games following a loss. The Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Rangers Wednesday.

15* Interleague Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -113

The Chicago White Sox have a big edge on the mound tonight. After losing to the Mets 1-0 last night behind a brilliant effort from Matt Harvey, I look for them to bounce back in Game 2 behind Jake Peavy.

The former Cy Young winner has returned to form over the past couple of seasons. Peavy is 3-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in five starts this year, including 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in his last three starts. He is also 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 10 career starts against New York.

Jeremy Hefner is no match for Peavy. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 4.34 ERA in five starts and one relief appearance in 2013. In fact, the Mets are 0-6 in games that he has appeared in this season. I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take the White Sox Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A's +105

After losing the first two games of this series to Cleveland, the Oakland A's will be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday in Game 3. I like their chances of getting a win considering the edge they have on the mound in this one.

A.J. Griffin is a much better starter than he gets credit for, going 3-2 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in six starts this season. He has never faced Cleveland, which is a huge advantage for him.

Justin Masterson got off to a fast start this year, but he has really come back down to reality, going 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA in his last two starts. Masterson is 1-5 with a 10.36 ERA and 2.128 WHIP in six career starts against Oakland. He gave up 19 earned runs over 14 2/3 innings in three starts against the A's in 2012.

The A's are 9-0 in Griffin's last 9 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Oakland is 17-5 in Griffin's last 22 starts overall. The A's are 7-2 in Griffin's last 9 starts as a road underdog. Bet Oakland Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami Marlins +162

The Miami Marlins are showing some of their best value of the season as a big road underdog to the San Diego Padres tonight. San Diego (14-18) doesn't have any business being this heavily favored against any team in this league.

That's especially the case tonight considering the edge that Miami has on the mound. Alex Sanabia is just 2-4 with a 4.67 ERA in all starts this year, but he's 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA in three road starts, pitching his best away from home.

Eric Stults has been simply atrocious for San Diego, going 2-2 with a 5.08 ERA in all starts, and 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two home starts. Stults is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two career starts against the Marlins as well.

Miami is 24-12 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in road games in May games over the last 3 seasons. The Marlins are 26-17 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Marlins Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 186.5

This Memphis vs. Oklahoma City series has defensive battle written all over it. With no Russell Westbrook, the Thunder are virtually forced to play a half-court game, which is exactly what Memphis likes.

These teams combined for 184 points in Game 1 with a 93-91 Oklahoma City victory. Memphis shot 42.7% while the Thunder were held to 41.2% shooting. I look for an even lower-scoring game in Game 2 tonight.

The UNDER is 20-6 in Grizzlies last 26 vs. NBA Northwest division opponents. The UNDER is 36-17 in Grizzlies last 53 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Thunder last 12 vs. NBA Southwest foes. The UNDER is 20-5-2 in Thunder last 27 games overall. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Thunder last 17 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -115

The Cincinnati Reds are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Atlanta Braves tonight given the edge they have on the mound. I look for a blowout victory for the home team as they bounce back from a loss in Game 1.

Homer Bailey is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in all starts this season, and he's 1-0 with a minscule 0.90 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in three home starts.

If that's not enough to wow you with this guy, then just take a look at his career numbers against Atlanta. Bailey is 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in three career starts against the Braves, and the Reds are a perfect 3-0 in those starts having never lost. Roll with the Reds Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Knicks TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on OVER 183

The books have once again missed their mark on the total in Game 2 of this series just as they did in Game 1. Indiana beat New York 102-95 in Game 1 for 197 combined points despite a total set of just 181.5.

What the public and thus the oddsmakers have failed to realize is that Indiana is no longer a slow-it-down, defensive team. That's evident by the fact that the Pacers are 9-3 to the OVER in their last 12 games overall. They have scored 100-plus points in 10 of their last 18 games as well.

We all know that the Knicks can fill it up as they are averaging 101.4 points/game at home this season. They managed 95 points in Game 1 despite shooting just 43.2% as a team, including 10-for-28 from Carmelo Anthony and 4-for-15 from J.R. Smith. I look for both Anthony and Smith to be much more efficient tonight, which will lead to 100-plus points for New York.

The OVER is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 Conference Semifinals games. The OVER is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games playing on 1 days rest. The OVER is 4-1 in Knicks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Phillies/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +135

The San Francisco Giants are in a huge letdown spot after sweeping the arch-rival Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend with three straight wins by exactly one run. Philadelphia is highly motivated for a victory after losing two in a row to the Marlins over the weekend.

These motivational factors, plus the fact that the Phillies have the edge on the mound, make for a great bet on undervalued road underdog tonight. Rarely will you ever get a starter of Cliff Lee's caliber at this kind of price.

Lee is 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.152 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in three road starts. The left-hander has been dominant in seven career starts against San Francisco, going 4-2 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.841 WHIP in seven starts.

The Phillies are 16-4 in Lee's last 20 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 5-0 in its last 5 vs. NL West opponents. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Giants are 0-5 in Bumgarner's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Phillies Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +166

The San Diego Padres have no business being this heavily favored over any team in this league. That includes the Miami Marlins, who have clearly struggled in the early going, but are finally starting to turn the corner.

Miami is coming off back-to-back wins over the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend. They won 2-0 Saturday before exploding for 14 runs in a 14-2 victory Sunday. I look for them to win three in a row behind Wade LeBlanc tonight.

"To keep adding on ... not only for the score, but for our guys, to stay hungry, and to keep grinding out at-bats and keep putting the pressure on, that's what we needed," manager Mike Redmond told the Marlins' official website. "For guys to go up and be a little greedy and take advantage was good to see."

Andrew Cashner has struggled in four relief appearances against Miami, posting an 11.57 ERA. San Diego is 1-11 (-10.9 Units) against the money line off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the Marlins Monday.

20* Warriors/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on OVER 201

The books have missed their mark badly in Game 1 of this series between Golden State and San Antonio. I believe there is a ton of value with the OVER tonight as both teams put up 100-plus in this one.

Golden State has been forced to play small ball due to injuries to a couple of their big men. As a result, it is more vulnerable defensively, and I look for San Antonio to put up a big number because of it. I don't believe the Warriors miss a beat offensively going small ball, though.

This play falls into a system that is 47-17 (73.4%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games.

Golden State is 29-16 to the OVER as an underdog this season. The OVER is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Warriors are 14-6 to the OVER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Dodgers/Giants ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +118

The Los Angeles Dodgers are highly motivated for a victory over their biggest rivals tonight on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. They lost the first two games of this series, so they certainly do not want to get swept by losing Game 3 as well.

I like Los Angeles' chances of getting a Game 3 victory considering the edge they have on the mound tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu is one of the most underrated starters in the game because not many know about this rookie.

Ryu is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.142 WHIP through six starts this season. He'll be up against Matt Cain, who is 0-2 with a 6.49 ERA through six starts, including 0-1 with an 11.17 ERA through two home starts.

The Dodgers are 14-4 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games with triple revenge - 3 straight losses against opponent over the last 3 seasons. They are bouncing back to win in this spot 5.7 to 3.3 on average. Take the Dodgers Sunday.

20* Pacers/Knicks Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +5.5

The Indiana Pacers are the most underrated team left in the playoffs. That's once again evident as they are a 5.5-point underdog to the New York Knicks in Game 1 of this series Sunday.

I look for Indiana to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for some insurance. The Pacers have won three of their last five meetings with the Knicks.

Indiana is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 39% or less since 1996. The Pacers are 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more since 1996. Bet the Pacers Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -128

With a huge edge on the mound tonight, I'll gladly back the Tampa Bay Rays as a small road favorite over the Colorado Rockies. David Price is in the prime of his career, while Jon Garland is washed up and doesn't belong in the big leagues any more.

The 2012 AL Cy Young winner has been below-average to this point of the season, which is why he is undervalued. However, Price has been solid in two recent starts, allowing six earned runs over 15 innings to the Yankees and White Sox.

Garland is 2-2 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.387 WHIP through five starts this season. It just goes to show how terrible the Rockies' rotation really is that they had to get Garland to start for them in 2013.

This play falls into a system that is 52-13 (80%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (COLORADO) - with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL). Roll with the Rays Saturday.

20* Bulls/Nets Game 7 No-Brainer on Chicago Money Line +256

The Chicago Bulls have been left for dead. Everyone has written them off after losing the last two games after taking a 3-1 series lead. This has been the most resilient team in the league over the last few years, and I look for them to win outright in Game 7.

Tom Thibodeau is the is the best motivator there is in the NBA. Thibodeau is 23-8 ATS off a home loss as the coach of Chicago. Thibodea is also 25-9 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Chicago.

The Bulls are actually coming back to win in this spot 97.6 to 88.9, or by an average of 8.7 points/game. Chicago is one of the best road teams in the league this season at 22-22 away from home. Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +130

The Boston Red Sox are showing awesome value as a road underdog to the Texas Rangers tonight. Boston has been the best team in the league at 20-9 this season.

The Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory after losing Game 1 of this series 7-0 to the Rangers. I like their chances of bouncing back behind the underrated John Lackey, who is 1-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.258 WHIP through two starts this season.

Alexi Ogando is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to a fast start this season. He has come back down to reality of late, though, going 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Red Sox are 6-0 in Lackey's last 6 starts with 5 days of rest. Boston is 6-1 in its last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Red Sox Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -133

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a massive edge on the mound tonight. Rarely will you ever get them at this kind of price with Clayton Kershaw on the mound, so I'm going to take advantage in Game 1 vs. San Francisco Friday.

The 2011 NL Cy Young winner is going after the award again in 2013. Kershaw is 3-2 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.912 WHIP with 47 strikeouts over 41 2/3 innings this season. The left-hander is 9-4 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 17 career starts against San Francisco.

Barry Zito is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to pitching well in the playoffs, and getting off to a solid start this year. However, Zito has finally come back down to reality of late, going 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.1724 WHIP over his last three starts.

The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Los Angeles is 38-14 in Kershaw's last 52 starts as a favorite. The Dodgers are 20-6 in Kershaw's last 26 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 5-1 in Kershaw's last 6 road starts vs. San Francisco. Bet the Dodgers Friday.

20* Thunder/Rockets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -1

The Houston Rockets continue to get disrespected by oddsmakers in Game 6 tonight. They have been the better team in the last four games, and clearly in the last three since Russell Westbrook went down with injury.

I believe Houston has an excellent chance to become the first NBA team to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. They now have advantages all over the floor over Oklahoma City that they did not have when Westbrook was healthy.

Westbrook's absence forces Kevin Durant to play the point-forward position, which he is extremely uncomfortable in. The loss of Westbrook clearly shows how good of a player he really is, but it's not being reflected in the odds tonight.

Houston is 30-13 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.0 points/game. The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Oklahoma City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 meetings in Houston. Take the Rockets Friday.

25* Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing their best value of the entire series tonight as a 6.5-point road underdog in Game 6 to the Memphis Grizzlies. They aren't going to go down without a fight, not with Chris Paul running the show.

Yes, Memphis has owned this series for the last three games, but I look for Los Angeles to make the proper adjustments tonight. They haven't gotten anything from their bench as Chris Paul has had to do it all. I look for the bench and role players to finally step up and contribute with their season on the line.

Los Angeles is 39-24 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Clippers are 18-7 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons.

The Clippers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 2 days rest. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Memphis is simply overvalued tonight. Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -123

With the huge edge the Tampa Bay Rays have over the Colorado Rockies on the mound tonight, they should be a much heavier favorite in Game 1 of this interleague series. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at a great price.

Tampa Bay starter Matt Moore has arguably been the Cy Young in the American League to this point. The flame-throwing left-hander is 5-0 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.875 WHIP with 38 strikeouts in 32 innings over five starts this season.

Moore will be up against the washed-up Jeff Francis, who has simply been atrocious this season for Colorado. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 7.29 ERA and 1.952 WHIP in five starts this year, allowing 17 earned runs and 41 base runners over 21 innings.

Colorado is 0-9 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Rockies are 0-11 (-12.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons. These two trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Rays. Also, Tampa is 22-6 in its last 28 vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Rays Friday.

15* Celtics/Knicks ESPN Game 6 No-Brainer on Boston +2

The New York Knicks have awoken a sleeping giant. From J.R. Smith saying the series would be over if he had played in Game 4, to the black clothing the Knicks showed up in in Game 5 signifying Boston's funeral, they couldn't possibly be any more stupid.

Boston is a team that will never quit as long as Doc Rivers is head coach. This team will show even more fight than it did in Games 4 and 5 in Game 6 tonight in front of a raucous home crowd. I look for the Celtics to win Game 6, and to have an excellent chance to be the first team to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series.

Remember, New York hasn't won a playoff series since 2000, so all of the pressure is on the Knicks. It's not going to be easy to win in Boston where the Celtics are 28-14 SU & 23-18-1 ATS on the season.

The Celtics are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games. Boston is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Knicks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games. Roll with the Celtics Friday.

20* Nuggets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -1

The Golden State Warriors will close out this series with the Denver Nuggets tonight in Game 6. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series with Golden State being the only road team to win, and it did so emphatically with a 131-117 triumph in Game 2.

Oracle Arena is one of the best atmospheres in the league come playoff time. It has been a huge advantage for the Warriors all season as they are 30-13 at home on the year. It will be rockin' for Stephon Curry and company tonight.

There's a reason why Golden State is a perfect 5-0 ATS in this series. Denver is simply overvalued as it is getting treated like the team that it was in the regular season, and not the one that it is now. The Nuggets clearly miss Danilo Gallinari as they aren't the same dynamic team without him.

The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Golden State is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games overall. These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Golden State. Bet the Warriors Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +120

The Chicago White Sox should not be an underdog to the Texas Rangers tonight. They have a big edge on the mound with Jake Peavy over Justin Grimm, and I'll gladly take advantage and back them at this price because of it.

Peavy, the former Cy Young winner, has returned to form over the past two seasons. He's off to a 3-1 start with a 3.37 ERA and 1.125 WHIP with 39 strikeouts over 32 innings this season.

Justin Grimm is off to a solid start for Texas, but it's a bit misleading. He has faced Seattle twice and Minnesota once in his three starts this year, which are two of the worst lineups in baseball. He is raw and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.

Texas is 18-30 (-18.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons. The White Sox are 5-0 in Peavy's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Chicago is 6-2 in its last 8 meetings with Texas. Take the White Sox Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -125

The Boston Red Sox should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Toronto Blue Jays. Boston (19-8) owns the best record in baseball, while Toronto (10-18) owns the second-worst record in the American League.

The Red Sox are hitting .276 and scoring 5.4 runs/game overall, including .295 and 6.5 runs/game on the road. The Blue Jays are hitting .228 and scoring 3.7 runs/game overall. Toronto is really missing Jose Reyes (ankle) right now.

Boston also has a huge edge on the mound in this one. Ryan Dempster has posted a 3.30 ERA and 1.113 WHIP with 43 strikeouts in 30 innings this season. While Dempster has been a proven winner throughout his career, Toronto's J.A. Happ hasn't done anything in the big leagues. That's why I'm not buying his decent start (3.86 ERA, 1.250 WHIP) to the season.

Happ is 9-24 (-13.0 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Boston is 6-1 in its 7 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Red Sox Thursday.

20* Rockets/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +8.5

The books have missed the mark badly on this Game 5 between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder. The last three games in this series have been decided by a total of 8 points, which is less than tonight's spread of 8.5.

I'll gladly take advantage and back the Rockets, who are playing with nothing to lose the rest of the way after everyone counted them out down 3-0. The fact of the matter is that Houston could be the team up 3-1 right now had a couple more breaks gone their way.

Oklahoma City has no business being this heavily favored without Russell Westbrook. It is not nearly as dynamic without him, which will make it hard for the Thunder to cover this inflated number tonight even if they do win.

The Rockets are 102-64 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1996. Houston is 21-9 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Pacers NBA TV No-Brainer on Indiana -7

Home-court advantage has simply been huge in this series between Indiana and Atlanta. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings, winning by double-digits each time. I look for that trend to continue in Game 5 Wednesday.

The home team has now won eight straight meetings between these teams dating back to the regular season. Indiana is 32-11 at home this season where it is outscoring its opponents by an average of 8.1 points/game.

Atlanta is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 playoff road games. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Pacers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

The home team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings. The favorite is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings. Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +108

The Washington Nationals are highly motivated for a victory over the Atlanta Braves tonight. They have lost nine straight in this series dating back to last season, and they DO NOT want the streak to reach double-digits tonight.

I like the Nationals' chances of putting an end to the skid considering the huge edge they have on the mound in this one. Jordan Zimmerman is one of the most underrated starters in the league, going 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.861 WHIP in five starts this season.

Zimmerman is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA in five career starts against Atlanta, while Paul Maholm is 2-6 with a 4.91 ERA in 11 career starts against Washington. Maholm is also 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings.

Zimmerman is 14-2 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. Zimmerman is 20-5 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Nationals Wednesday.