15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgetown +5

What more does Georgetown have to do to get some respect? The Hoyas are one of the most improved teams in the country and the books have failed to catch up to just how improved they are this season.

The Hoyas are 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  The lone losses came on the road at West Virginia by 13 and at Marquette by 8 as 13.5-point dogs.  They beat Xavier by 6 and Creighton by 24 in their two Big East home games this season.

UConn finally had its lucky 8-game winning streak come to an end in their last game, losing 68-66 at Villanova.  Five of the eight wins during that streak came by 6 points or less, so they were simply fortunate in close games.

The Huskies have struggled since losing 2nd-leading scorer Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) two games ago.  Prior to losing at Villanova, they only beat Providence by 3 at home as 14.5-point favorites.  The Hoyas are live underdogs today.  Bet Georgetown Saturday.

15* Big East TOTAL OF THE DAY on UConn/Georgetown UNDER 143.5

UConn ranks 318th in adjusted tempo this season playing as one of the slowest teams in all of college basketball.  The Huskies just lost 2nd-leading scorer Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) two games ago and will be without him today.

The Georgetown Hoyas are improved this season but it's largely due to defense rather than offense.  The Hoyas are 119th in adjusted offense but 29th in adjusted defense.  They have been without second-leading scorer Jayden Epps (14.7 PPG) in their last couple games and he is questionable to return today.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MVC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Belmont/Indiana State OVER 170

Indiana State is a dead nuts OVER team going 12-2 OVER in its 14 games this season.  The Belmont Bruins are also a dead nuts OVER team going 11-4 OVER in all games this season.  This game shapes up to be one of the highest scoring games in college basketball in 2025.

Indiana State ranks 9th in adjusted tempo and 275th in adjusted defense.  Belmont ranks 29th in adjusted tempo and 251st in adjusted defense.  Both teams are much better on the offensive end than they are on defense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Ohio State/Texas Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Ohio State -6

Note: I also really like a 6-point teaser with Penn State +8.5/Ohio State PK for the playoff semifinals.  Make sure to check all your books to see what the best price is on a Penn State +8.5 alternate line and Ohio State ML parlay is instead of laying -120 on a 6-point teaser.  Bet whatever price is better.  The alternate line +8.5/ML parlay is currently -106 at DK and -110 at Fanduel as of this writing.

Ryan Day, Chip Kelly and the Ohio State Buckeyes learned from their loss to Michigan in the regular season finale.  They decided to open it up and let Will Howard cook in the passing game in the 12-team playoff, and it has worked wonders with all of their playmakers on the outside.

The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee 42-17 and jumped on the Vols early with a 21-0 lead after the first quarter.  They threw for 317 yards for the game and actually took their foot off the gas late with the game already in hand, or it could have been worse.

The same thing happened against Oregon last round as the Buckeyes blitzed the Ducks jumping out to a 34-8 lead at halftime.  Will Howard threw three touchdown passes of 40-plus yards in the first half and Henderson popped a 66-yard run after.  They took their foot off the gas in the 2H or it would have been worse than a 41-21 final.  This just goes to show how potent Ohio State could be for four quarters if they actually have their foot on the gas for all four.

Texas benefited from a very easy regular season schedule.  The Longhorns lost both meetings with Georgia when they had to step up in class.  And they have been fortunate to make it this far in the 12-team playoff.

Texas only led Clemson by 7 in the 4th quarter before a 77-yard run clinched a 38-24 victory.  Cade Klubnik kept coming throwing for 336 yards and 3 TD against Texas to expose their secondary, which is something I believe Howard can do as well.

Texas had no business beating Arizona State last round.  The Longhorns were actually outgained 510 to 375 by the Sun Devils, or by 135 total yards.  But ASU failed in the red zone and in the kicking game which was the difference.  They threw for 296 yards and rushed for 214 on this Texas defense despite being without their best receiver.

The Longhorns were held to 53 rushing yards on 30 carries by Arizona State.  And that is going to be a problem for them against this Ohio State defense.  The Buckeyes have the best defense in the country ranking 1st in scoring defense at 12.1 points per game, 1st in total defense at 244.6 yards per game and 1st at 4.0 yards per play.  They allow just 92.2 rushing yards per game and 2.7 per carry.  

Texas isn't going to have any success on the ground, and Quinn Ewers is one of the most overrated QB's in the country in my opinion.  He was exposed twice against Georgia this season, and he'll be exposed against Ohio State again here.  Ohio State's balance on offense will also be a big difference in this contest with Howard having another big game through the air.  The Buckeyes have no weaknesses.  They roll again.  Bet Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl Friday.

15* Thunder/Knicks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on OVER 225

The New York Knicks are a dead nuts OVER team this season.  They have done a 180 becoming one of the best offensive teams in the NBA while simultaneously slipping a lot on defense.  They rank 3rd in offensive rating only slightly behind the Cavs and Celtics.

The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 8th in offensive rating and like to play fast.  They are more of an OVER team right now without Alex Caruso, who is one of their best defenders but doesn't provide much on offense.  They just got in a 129-122 shootout with the Cavs last game for 251 combined points, and it will be more of the same against the Knicks tonight.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 224 or more combined points in all six meetings between the Knicks and Thunder.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Celtics OVER 229.5

Note: Fox has since been listed out since I posted this pick.  I would no longer play it.

De'Aaron Fox was seen participating in shootaround in Boston Friday.  They are an OVER team with him and an UNDER team without him.  I'm expecting him to play tonight, which is why I added this OVER 229.5

The Celtics rank 2nd in offensive rating this season only behind the Cleveland Cavaliers.  The Kings rank 7th in offensive rating.  These are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA, and they are both fully healthy right now.

The Kings have scored at least 122 points in five of their last six games, and the OVER is 5-2 in their last seven games.  The Celtics are coming off three consecutive unders which are keeping this total lower than it should be.  They played the Nuggets without Jokic, the best defensive team in the NBA in the Thunder and the 3rd-best defensive team in the NBA in the Rockets during this three-game stretch.

Both teams are fresh, healthy and ready to run.  The Celtics have had the last two days off, while the Kings have had the last three days off.  I expect this game to be played at a very frenetic pace.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +6

The Utah Jazz are exactly the type of team you can make money on in the NBA.  They have a poor record but they show up to play every night.  And that has especially been the case of late as the Jazz are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with four outright upset victories.

Without Jimmy Butler, the Miami Heat have no business being 6-point road favorites over the Jazz tonight.  The Heat were 9-point home favorites over the Jazz in their first meeting this season and lost 136-100, failing to cover the spread by 45 points.

This is a very tough spot for the Heat.  They will be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days and their 6th game in 9 days.  They had to go to double-OT against Sacramento three nights ago to add to their fatigue.  Now they have to go into altitude in Salt Lake City, and I don't expect them to handle it very well tonight.  Bet the Jazz Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Jazz OVER 221.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  The OVER is 12-3 in Jazz last 15 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 11 of those 15 games. This total of 221.5 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  

What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They have scored at least 103 points in 12 consecutive games, including 120 or more in six of them.

The Miami Heat don't miss much offensively without Jimmy Butler, but they do miss him defensively.  They have had to go more small ball and they shoot a ton of 3-pointers, which makes them more of an OVER team.  They have fallen off defensively allowing 120 or more points in four of their last seven games.

The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  That includes 236 combined points in their first meeting this season.  They have combined for 226 or more points in seven of their last eight meetings, including 233 or more in six of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Suns OVER 236.5

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace and 20th in defensive rating.  The Hawks and their opponents have combined for at least 230 points in eight of their last 10 games overall.

The Phoenix Suns are at full strength right now and a deadly offensive team when that's the case, which hasn't been the case for much of the season.  Booker, Beal and Durant are all healthy as are all their role players with the exception of Royce O'Neale.

The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the Hawks and Suns.  They have combined for 243 and 249 points in their last two meetings, and 232 or more points in eight of their last 10 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Notre Dame/Penn State Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Penn State +2.5

Note: I also really like a 6-point teaser with Penn State +8.5/Ohio State PK for the playoff semifinals.  Make sure to check all your books to see what the best price is on a Penn State +8.5 alternate line and Ohio State ML parlay is instead of laying -120 on a 6-point teaser.  Bet whatever price is better.  The alternate line +8.5/ML parlay is currently -106 at DK and -110 at Fanduel as of this writing.

The Penn State Nittany Lions have a big rest and preparation advantage over Notre Dame.  The Nittany Lions played on Tuesday last week while the Fighting Irish had their game pushed back a day due to the terrorist situation in New Orleans.  They played on Thursday, so the Nittany Lions have a two-day rest advantage.

In a game that is close to a toss up, I'll take any advantage I can get.  I like the fact that Penn State coaches and players got to watch Notre Dame play on Thursday night.  They would have been paying as close attention as any game they have watched other than their own all season.

James Franklin is quickly proving he can win big games with two impressive wins in the 12-team playoff.  The Nittany Lions won 38-10 over SMU as 9-point home favorites and a 31-14 over Boise State as 11.5-point favorites on a neutral.  They have played the tougher schedule which ranks 33rd in the country.

Their defense continues to shine ranking 7th in scoring defense allowing 15.8 points per game, 4th in total defense at 288.8 yards per game and 7th at 4.6 yards per play.  Their offense is the best of the Franklin era ranking 10th in the country at 6.6 yards per play with tremendous balance behind first-year coordinator Andy Kotelnicki from Kansas.

Notre Dame has benefited from playing the 54th-ranked schedule in the country.  The Fighting Irish also benefited from getting to play an overrated Indiana team in the opening round and a Georgia team that was missing their starting QB.  I think the Irish are grossly overvalued after going a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

A turnover at the 2-yard line followed by a 98-yard run by Jeremiyah Love changed the complexion of that Indiana game early.  A sack fumble followed by a TD right before half on a short field changed the complexion of the Georgia game.  That was followed up by a 98-yard kickoff return TD by Notre Dame coming out of intermission which completely changed the game.

As you can see, big plays by Notre Dame were the reasons for their first two wins in the playoffs.  I don't see them getting those kinds of big plays against a well-coached, stout defense like Penn State.  The Fighting Irish only had 14 first downs and 244 total yards against Georgia.  They have a great defense, but their offense is a weakness.

QB Riley Leonard is known more for what he can do with his legs than his arm.  He threw for just 90 yards on 24 attempts against Georgia.  Star RB Love (1,076 yards, 16 TD) is clearly hobbled and rushed for only 19 yards on 6 carries against Georgia.  He won't get the benefit of extra rest considering he has just six days off in between games.  Not to mention the Fighting Irish are without their best DL Rylie Mills (7.5 sacks), who got hurt against Indiana.

I think these teams are pretty evenly-matched defensively, but the difference is the Nittany Lions have more playmakers on offense and a QB that can actually stretch the field.  They have two 1,000-yard rushers and a 1,000-yard receiver in star TE Tyler Warren.  The Nittany Lions will bottle up Leonard and Love and that will be the difference in this game.  Bet Penn State in the Orange Bowl Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Oklahoma PK

Oklahoma (13-1) finally suffered its first loss of the season in blowout fashion at Alabama over the weekend.  You could see it coming as it was the first true road game for the Sooners against one of the best teams in the country.

But now the Sooners are back home where they are 8-0 SU this season and 22-4 SU dating back to the beginning of last season.  They take on a Texas A&M team in a letdown spot off a 20-point blowout home win over rival Texas over the weekend.

This will be just the 2nd true road game of the season for the Aggies.  They lost 64-61 at UCF as 6-point favorites in their season opener.  That's a UCF team that just lost by 51 at home to Kansas in their last game.

This will be Texas A&M's toughest test of the season.  Making matters worse for the Aggies is that they will be without their best player in leading scorer Wade Taylor (15.7 PPG, 4.8 APG).  That's a huge loss for them and it's not being factored into the line enough.  Bet Oklahoma Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +12

The Raptors have managed to stay competitive despite dealing with a plethora of injuries all season.  There is a lot of talent on this roster when fully healthy, and the Raptors are fully healthy for the first time all season tonight.

The New York Knicks are a tired team and it is showing going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They lost outright to the short-handed Magic last game as double-digit home favorites.  They lost by 13 at Chicago as 5.5-point favorites.

Tom Thibodeau keeps playing his starters 40-plus minutes on a nightly basis.  It is catching up to them in the injury department as both Towns and McBride are questionable to play tonight after sitting out last game.

The Knicks will be playing their 8th game in 13 days, while the Raptors will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  The Raptors will be playing with double-revenge after losing by 5 at home and by 14 on the road to the Knicks in their two meetings in December.  This number is a couple notches too high.  Bet the Raptors Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Detroit Pistons -7

The Brooklyn Nets are a dumpster fire right now.  They have already made a couple big trades and have failed to replace the players they lost.  Making matters worse is that they are without 7 key players right now, including each of their top 4 scorers.

All these injuries and lack of talent have really showed up in their last two games as the Nets lost by 29 at home to the 76ers and by 14 at home to the Pacers.  I don't expect it to go much better for them tonight.

Now they take on a Detroit Pistons team that has quietly gone 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall.  They are legit playoff contenders sitting at 18-18 on the season.  I don't expect Detroit to have a letdown here considering they have a chance to get above .500 for the first time this season.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Cavs ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland -2

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 30-4 SU this season including 18-1 SU at home.  They are the healthier, more rested team tonight in this huge matchup with the Oklahoma City Thunder.

While the Cavs will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days, the Thunder will be playing their 4th game in 7 days.  The Thunder are coming off a big comeback home win over the Celtics, setting them up for a big of a letdown spot here.

You won't find a tougher two-game stretch than Boston followed by Cleveland.  This is also the first road game for the Thunder after playing their last five games at home.  This will be their toughest test of the season.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Florida State +2

The Miami Hurricanes are a complete dumpster fire.  Head coach Jim Laranaga resigned after a 4-8 start.  The Hurricanes went on to lose their next two games without him to fall to 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS this season.

Worse yet, Miami has gone 1-10 SU in its last 11 games overall which includes upset home losses to Mount St. Mary's and Charleston Southern as massive favorites.  The Hurricanes are already on 'quit watch' and we just started ACC play.

Florida State has been undervalued going 10-4 SU & 9-5 ATS this season.  That includes 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games.  Leading scorer Nijel Pack (13.9 PPG) is a game-time decision for the Hurricanes after missing their last four games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Florida State Wednesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -2.5

The Bradley Braves have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Braves went 14-3 SU at home last season and they are 8-0 SU at home this season including a win over San Francisco.  They basically just have to win this game to cover this short number against Drake tonight.

The Bulldogs have been a great story getting off to a 12-0 start this season.  But they have been overvalued since, getting upset in each of their last two games at Illinois-Chicago and at home against Murray State as double-digit favorites.  

G Isiah Jackson is questionable for Drake after missing their last game against Murray State.  He starts and plays 28 minutes per game and does a little bit of everything for the Bulldogs.  Meanwhile, Bradley is fully healthy coming into this one.

The Braves have had this game circled all offseason.  They will be playing with quadruple revenge after losing each of their last four meetings with Drake.  Their NCAA Tournament hopes were crushed with two consecutive losses the last two years to Drake in the MVC Tournament.  I expect a big effort from the Braves tonight.  Bet Bradley Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Villanova +1

The UConn Huskies have been very fortunate during their current 8-game winning streak.  Five of the eight wins have come by 6 points or less.  That includes a 3-point home win over Providence as 14.5-point favorites last time out.

A big reason the Huskies struggled to put away Providence was because they were without their 2nd-leading scorer in Liam McNeely (13.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG) for the first time this season.  McNeely is out again tonight.

Villanova has gone 8-2 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall playing its best basketball of the season.  The two losses came by 1 on a neutral to Maryland and by 7 at Creighton.  The Wildcats are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, including a 44-point blowout of DePaul last time out.

UConn only won by a single point in their trip to Villanova last season.  The Huskies aren't nearly as strong this season after winning the national title the last two years.  The Wildcats are one of the most improved teams in the country, and I think they get some revenge here.  Wrong team favored.  Bet Villanova Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Nuggets TNT No-Brainer on OVER 235.5

The Denver Nuggets are without their best defender in Aaron Gordon right now.  They are a dead nuts OVER team without him having to go small ball by inserting Russell Westbrook into the starting lineup in his place.

In their last 22 games, the Nuggets and their opponents have combined for at least 229 points in 17 of them.  Here of late they have gone for 233 or more combined points in five of their last six games, including 259 with the Hawks, 253 with the Jazz, 255 with the Pistons and 284 with the Cavs.  The Nuggets rank 4th in offensive rating on the season.

The Celtics are fully healthy right now for basically the first time all season with only Derrick White listed questionable with an illness.  They are setting records for shooting 3-pointers and rank 2nd in offensive rating only behind the Cavaliers.  When fully healthy they are arguably the best offensive team in the NBA.  They will gladly go small ball to match the Nuggets tonight.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas Tech/BYU OVER 148.5

Texas Tech is a dead nuts OVER team going 9-3-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Red Raiders are elite on offense ranking 10th in adjusted offense, 1st in effective FG percentage and 10th in 3-point percentage.  They are loaded with 3-point shooters all over the floor.  They have scored at least 76 points in 12 of their 13 games this season.

The BYU Cougars are also pretty elite on offense.  They rank 92nd in average length of possession so they get shots up quickly.  They do so efficiently ranking 29th in adjusted offense, 23rd in effective FG percentage and 62nd in 3-point percentage.

Like Texas Tech, BYU attempts a ton of 3-pointers, and thus this game will see a lot of long rebounds and easy scoring opportunities for both teams in transition.  This total is way too short when you consider Texas Tech and its opponents have combined for at least 151 points in nine of its 13 games this season.  

These teams combined for 163 points in their regular season meeting and 148 in the Big 12 Tournament last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +5.5

This is a very tough spot for the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 108-106 win over the Los Angeles Clippers last night.  Four starters played at least 31 minutes for the Timberwolves in the win.  They haven't had two days off in a row since December 17-18.  They won't have much left in the tank for the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

The Pelicans are as healthy as they have been in a long time and now Zion Williamson makes his return tonight.  They are only for sure without Brandon Ingram.  This is a very talented roster, and a lot more talented than their 7-29 SU record would indicate.  But because they have such a poor record we are getting great value with them tonight and in the immediate future as long as they are as healthy as they are right now.

The Pelicans are coming off consecutive blowout victories over the Wizards by 12 and 12 points in a home-and-home situation.  They are rested after having yesterday off and will be playing just their 5th game in 11 days.  The spot really favors the home underdog tonight.  Bet the Pelicans Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Suns/Hornets OVER 222

The Charlotte Hornets have been battling injuries all season.  But they are finally pretty healthy only missing Mann and Grant Williams.  They are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (29.8 PPG, 7.3 APG) is on the court, and he is currently healthy right now.  The Hornets also recently got Brandon Miller (21.5 PPG) back from injury.

The Suns are basically fully healthy for the first time all season.  Durant, Booker, Beal and Nurkic are all healthy.  They are brining Beal and Nurkic off the bench to help out with their depth issues, and it's working as they just upset the 76ers last night.  They are a deadly offensive team when all these guys are healthy.

The Hornets and Suns have combined for at least 225 points in four of their last six meetings with the OVER going 3-2-1.  This total of 222 is way too short for a game involving healthy Suns and Hornets teams tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Tennessee/Florida ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Florida -3

The Tennessee Vols are 14-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  Yet they are underdogs to the Florida Gators tonight.  They are underdogs for good reason as I fully expect the Gators to win and cover and hand the Vols their first loss of the season.

This will be just their 3rd true road game of the season for the Volunteers.  They beat Louisville and got past Illinois 66-64.  This is their toughest road game of the season now against a 13-1 Florida team that is highly motivated coming off its first loss of the season at Kentucky by a final of 106-100.

But now the Gators are back home where they are 7-0 this season and outscoring opponents by nearly 30 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Florida Tuesday.

20* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Chicago Bulls +3

The Chicago Bulls are fully healthy right now with the exception of Dosunmu.  They have quietly been playing some pretty good basketball here of late going 6-4 SU in their last 10 games, including a 139-126 win as 5.5-point underdogs over the Knicks last time out.  They also upset the Celtics and Bucks during this stretch.

The Bulls are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  They have owned the San Antonio Spurs, going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  That includes a 139-124 win as 1.5-point dogs in San Antonio in their first meeting this season on December 5th.

I think this is a terrible spot for the San Antonio Spurs.  They are coming off a home-and-home series with the Denver Nuggets on Friday and Saturday.  After beating the Nuggets 113-110 on the road Friday, they lost 122-111 (OT) to the Nuggets at home on Saturday.  This has the makings of a flat spot for the Spurs after those two grueling games, and now playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Magic/Knicks UNDER 210

The Orlando Magic are without each of their top four scorers in Banchero (29.0 PPG), Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG), Suggs (16.4 PPG) and Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG).  It's safe to say points have been very hard to come by for the Magic without these guys.

Indeed, the Magic are 2-4 SU in their last six games overall while averaging just 94.8 points per game during this six-game stretch.  They rank 29th in the NBA in offensive rating, 5th in defensive rating and 29th in pace over those six games.  They are a dead nuts UNDER team as it is, but especially in their current form.

Both Karl-Anthony Towns (25.3 PPG) and Miles McBride (9.8 PPG) are questionable to play for the Knicks tonight, and Jalen Brunson (25.4 PPG) is playing through a calf injury.  The Knicks aren't in great shape right now either in the injury department.

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will already be the 4th meeting between the Knicks and Magic this season and all four have come within the last month.  After a 121-106 win by the Knicks in their first meeting where the Wagner brothers combined for 50 points.  The the last two have been extremely low scoring with just 191 and 193 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the 4th meeting as this one stays well UNDER the 210-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Night BLOWOUT on Indiana Pacers -10

The Indiana Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and playing their best basketball of the season as a result.  They have opened 2025 by beating the Heat by 13 on the road and the Suns by 18 at home to improve to 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Now the Pacers should make easy work of the Brooklyn Nets, who have traded away a few of their best players and are in transition.  Making matters worse for the Nets is their laundry list of injuries right now.

Indeed, the Nets have 8 players on the injury report.  They are without Bogdanovic, Melton (10.3 PPG), Thomas (24.7 PPG) and Johnson (19.5 PPG), and they could be without Russell (12.7 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Simmons (5.9 PPG, 6.9 APG), who are both questionable to play tonight.  They are basically a G League team right now.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Pacers Monday.

20* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Portland Trail Blazers +6.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are quietly playing their best basketball of the season right now largely due to the fact that they are fully healthy with the exception of Jeramy Grant.  They have gone 3-2 SU in their last five games with an upset home win over the Mavericks and an upset road win over the Bucks as double-digit underdogs.

The Detroit Pistons are getting too much respect now after going 6-1 SU in their last seven games.  They are coming off an outright upset win over the Timberwolves as 6.5-point dogs, setting them up for a big letdown spot here tonight.

Cade Cunningham had 40 points in the win, and he is going to have to shoulder even more of the load moving forward now that Jaden Ivey (17.6 PPG, 4.0 APG) is out with a broken fibula.  Ivey is one of the more underrated players in the league and the Pistons will miss him sooner rather than later.  Amen Thompson (7.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG) is questionable.

The Blazers own the Pistons going 8-1 SU & 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Their lone loss came by 6 in OT.  That makes for a 9-0 system backing the Blazers pertaining to this 6.5-point spread.  Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* Suns/76ers NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Phoenix +3.5

The Phoenix Suns will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost four straight games to the Pacers, Grizzlies, Warriors and Mavericks coming in.  But they are now fully healthy for basically the first time all season and should put their best foot forward tonight.

The Suns will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days to start 2025.  They are fresh and ready to go, and now Durant, Beal, Booker and Nurkic are all healthy when all four has missed significant time this season.  Jones is back in the lineup as well after sitting out last game.

The 76ers do have George and Maxey back, but Embiid is questionable every night and remains questionable tonight.  Both Oubre (12.8 PPG) and Lowry are questionable, and McCain (15.3 PPG) and Martin (6.4 PPG) are both out.  The 76ers are a top-heavy team and missing some key role players.

The Suns have owned the 76ers going 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Suns Monday.

25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Vikings/Lions OVER 51

Note: I released the OVER 51 in this game prior to the Lions playing the 49ers on Monday.  I had a big play on the OVER 51.5 in that Lions/49ers game, and I anticipated a shootout that would undoubtedly make the books set this total in Vikings/Lions higher.  It played out as I expected.  It's still a 25* up to 56, and a 20* at anything higher.  But I expect this game to sail OVER the total with both teams getting 28-plus points.

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (33.3 PPG), 2nd in total offense (410.5 YPG) and 4th in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  They did just lose RB David Montgomery to injury, but not having him actually makes them more of an OVER team.  They have to throw more and backup RB Jamir Gibbs is more explosive and better at catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 14 defenders on IR alone.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts the last four weeks going 4-0 OVER.  They accomplished it with a 34-31 win over Green Bay four weeks ago, but they couldn't get three weeks ago in a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

Two weeks ago, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

Last week, the Lions beat the 49ers 40-34 for 74 combined points.  The 49ers even left some points on the board missing two field goals and a XP.  The only thing that stopped them was two bad INT's by Brock Purdy.  This game had 10 touchdowns and zero punts! That's the first time since 1937 that has happened in a game, and it just goes to show just how much of an OVER team the Lions are.

Now they take on another elite offense in the Minnesota Vikings, who rank 9th in scoring at 26.4 points per game, 7th in total offense at 352.2 yards per game and 10th at 6.0 yards per play.  The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in seven consecutive games.  They are as healthy as they have been all season on offense with unlimited weapons for Sam Darnold in Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson and Jones.

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 50 or more combined points in all six, including 52 or more in five of them.  That includes a 31-29 win by the Lions in Minnesota in their first meeting and 60 combined points.  The Lions have scored at least 30 points in each of the last four meetings as Jared Goff clearly has this blitz-heavy Minnesota scheme figured out.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* Vikings/Lions NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +3

The Minnesota Vikings are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  That's a big reason they are 14-2 SU & 11-4-1 ATS as one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  They quietly take a 9-game winning streak into this showdown with the Detroit Lions with the NFC North and the No. 1 seed in the NFC at stake.

The Vikings are only a couple notches down from the Lions on offense right now, but the difference in these defenses is the reason I'm on the Vikings.  The Lions have the worst defense in the entire NFL in their current state.  They have 14 defenders on IR.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

The Vikings rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.8 points per game and 12th at 5.5 yards per play.  They just held Jordan Love and Packers to 271 total yards last week.  The Lions rank 28th allowing 6.0 yards per play.  They just allowed 475 total yards to the 49ers last week.

But there were even more concerning results for this Detroit defense in recent weeks.  It started with allowing 31 points to the Packers, and then 48 points and 559 total yards to the Bills in their last home games.  They gave up 382 yards and 6.0 yards per play to the Bears two weeks ago before allowing 34 points and 7.9 yards per play to the 49ers last week.  This is a bad, bad defense right now especially against the pass.

The Lions are getting too much respect for home-field advantage.  The Vikings are the better, healthier team right now and getting 3 points with them is a great value.  The difference in this game will be the Vikings getting one or two more stops than the Lions.  Sam Darnold can match Jared Goff score for score.  Bet the Vikings Sunday night.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Magic OVER 212

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 11-2 in Jazz last 13 games overall with 236 or more combined points in 10 of those 13 games.

This total of 212 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They have scored at least 103 points in 10 consecutive games, including 120 or more in five of them.

The Orlando Magic are an under team, but that is being factored into this line too much.  They will be able to hang a big number on the Jazz, and I expect the Jazz to hang right with them.  

The Jazz and Magic have combined for at least 213 points in five consecutive meetings, including 220 or more in each of the last four.  I like OVERS in non-conference games because teams are unfamiliar with one another only facing each other twice a year, and that unfamiliarity favors offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Utah Jazz +6.5

The Utah Jazz are as healthy as they have been all season.  That return to health has led to a 6-2 ATS run in their last eight games overall.  That includes a 136-100 upset win over the Miami Heat last night.

This line has been adjusted too much in Orlando's favor due to the Jazz playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But they had two days off prior to that win over Miami, and it was a blowout so their starters didn't even play in the 4th quarter.  Nobody played more than 30 minutes for the Jazz last night.

It's a short trip from Miami to Orlando, so I expect the Jazz to still be plenty fresh tonight to put forth another big effort.  But this play is as much a fade of the Magic as anything with all the injuries they are dealing with right now.

Indeed, the Magic will be without each of their top four scorers in Banchero (29.0 PPG), Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG), Suggs (16.4 PPG) and Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG).  The Magic have gone 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall clearly struggling with all these injuries.  The only wins were by 9 over Toronto and by 1 over the Nets, which are two of the worst teams in the NBA.  Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chargers/Raiders OVER 40.5

The Las Vegas Raiders have a much better offense with Aidan O'Connell at quarterback.  He has had big games in each of his last three starts throwing for 340 yards against Kansas City, 257 against Jacksonville and 242 against New Orleans.

The Los Angeles Chargers have been a dead nuts OVER team in recent weeks.  The OVER is 6-2 in Chargers last eight games overall with 44 or more combined points in six of those eight games, and 47 or more in five of them.  They have gone to a more pass-happy offense, and their defense has taken a step back.

I put out a lot of plays Sunday night, and of the ones I put out, this is the only one that gives me a little bit of pause as of this writing on Friday.  The Chargers could elect to rest starters if the Steelers win on Saturday.  They would be locked into the 6th seed if that were the case.  But if the Steelers lose, I absolutely love this OVER because the Chargers will play all their starters trying to get the 5th seed and a matchup with the Texans in the 1st round.  But Harbaugh may play all his starters either way.

The good news is that the Chargers actually have a quality backup QB now after trading for Taylor Heineke in the preseason.  He is a gun slinger and I think he would be able to put up some points against this Raiders defense.  I know Aidan O'Connell and this Raiders offense will have success either way, especially if they are playing against a bunch of backups.

Regardless, this OVER 40.5 was a good bet because as of this writing this total is up to 41.5 and 42 everywhere.  So from a line value perspective this is going to be a great bet if the Chargers play all their starters and Herbert is out there slinging it around in perfect conditions in the dome in Las Vegas.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NFL GAME OF THE YEAR on Seattle Seahawks +1

Note: Grab the best Money Line price on the Seahawks you can find as soon as you can if you can't get +1.  They are going to go off the favorite.  I'm expecting the Rams to rest starters.

Update: This pick is the perfect example of why having a long-term package is to your benefit because you would have gotten this pick as soon as I released it.  I released this play Sunday night and ML -120 was widely available at the time of release.  The Seahawks have gone from +1 to -6.5 as of this writing.  I stated that you should find the Seahawks at the cheapest money line price you could get if you couldn't get +1.  And you could have had the Seahawks at -3 or -150 better through Tuesday.  That's when the news that the Rams would rest their starters came out and this line ballooned to -6.5.  I anticipated the Rams would rest their starters before anyone else, and I'm glad we got a great early number.  But if you're buying this later in the week and the line is -6.5 I wouldn't recommend a 25* at that number.  I still think the Seahawks win and cover, but there are better ways to play it.  Either tease the Seahawks down with either the Falcons -2.5 or better, the Vikings up to +8.5 or better, or the Dolphins at +7.5 or better.  I am not offering this play separately for purchase because of the line move as I don't think that would be fair, and only my long-term subscribers and those of you who buy the NFL 9-pack or 5-Pack have access to it.

The Seahawks have been eliminated from the playoffs and while that is a concern in terms of their motivation, I don't think it's that big of a concern.  The Seahawks have a first-year head coach in Mike McDonald and he wants to finish strong.  Geno Smith gets an extra $2 million if the Seahawks win 10 games, and they are going for their 10th win.  Smith also gets an additional $2 million if he throws for at least 186 yards.  His teammates will be motivated to get him those bonuses.

The Rams will be resting QB Stafford, WR Nacua, WR Kupp, RB Williams, G Dotson, RT Havenstein and LT Jackson among others.  Yes, Jimmy G is a decent backup, but I think he is overrated as a backup for what he did under Kyle Shanahan in his time at San Francisco. The 49ers won games because of their defense and in spite of Jimmy G's poor play.  He is a massive downgrade from the underrated Stafford.

The Rams have been one of the worst preseason teams in the NFL in the Sean McVay era.  With him treating this line a preseason game, the Rams are one of the worst teams in the NFL in their current form with all these backups.  They lack depth because of the trades they have made in recent seasons stripping them of that important depth.  They have some of the worst backups in the NFL.

The Seahawks are remarkably healthy right now and about as healthy as they have been all season.  They have the rest advantage to boot after beating the Bears last Thursday, getting that coveted mini-bye week late in the season.  I expect one of their best performances of the year here to get that coveted 10th win not only for Geno Smith, but for head coach Mike McDonald in his first season.  Bet the Seahawks on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Miami Dolphins ML -140

The Miami Dolphins are still very much alive to make the playoffs.  They have gone 6-2 SU in their last eight games to get back to .500 on the season.  They aren't about to let up now after fighting this hard just to get in this position when it looked like a lost season sitting at 2-6.

The Dolphins need to win and have the Broncos lose to the Chiefs to get in.  While the Broncos losing to the Chiefs isn't likely, we've seen several times over the years where the Chiefs rested their starters in the final week of the season but still managed to win, or at the very least keep it close.  I like that the Dolphins are playing at the same time as the Broncos so they won't know the result before they play.

QB Snoop Huntley had his best game as a Dolphin on the road in tough conditions against a very good Cleveland defense last week.  Huntley completed 22-of-26 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for 52 yards and a score.  He fed Tyreek Hill early and often as Hill finished with 9 receptions for 105 yards in the win.

Head coach Mike McDaniel said on Wednesday that Huntley is in line to start as of now, but Tua Tagovailoa got in a limited practice on Wednesday and could start.  This line won't be close to PK if Tua goes.  Plus, WR Jaylen Waddle returned to practice this week, and the Dolphins didn't have Waddle last week.

While this Miami offense gets all the headlines, it's the defense that has been one of the most underrated units in the entire NFL this season.  Miami ranks 3rd in total defense allowing just 310.6 yards per game.  They are 8th in scoring at 20.6 points per game, and they have few weaknesses as they are both 9th against the run and 9th against the pass.

I think the New York Jets are just ready for this disaster of a season to be over with. They are 4-12 on the season and have lost six of their last seven games with their lone win being a comeback victory over the lowly Jaguars. Aaron Rodgers literally quit and took himself out of the game last week when they were trailing Buffalo 40-0.  While Rodgers has been a disappointment, the problems are mostly everywhere else with the offensive line and the defense both decimated by injuries.  Rodgers has no running game and no time, and he's always trying to pay catch up with this leaky defense.

The Jets are allowing 28.7 points per game in their last seven games.  They have lost their way since losing head coach Robert Saleh and MLB CJ Mosely.  Now they could be without their next two best defenders in CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams this week.  Three starters are questionable along the offensive line, and they just lost their starting LT two weeks ago.

The Dolphins didn't have a single player make the Pro Bowl which adds to their motivation.  The Jets are 0-20 SU & 1-19 ATS in their last 20 games after facing the Bills the previous week.  I'll gladly back the better, healthier team with something to play for Sunday against the banged up, flatlining Jets who are just ready for this season to be over with.  Bet the Dolphins on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +3.5

I grabbed the New York Giants +3.5 on Sunday night.  I anticipated the Philadelphia Eagles would rest their starters because they were locked into the No. 2 seed.  They have indeed decided to rest their starters and this line is down to +2.5 as of this writing.  The Giants should be favored, so it's still worth a bet as long as they are underdogs.

The Giants are coming off their best offensive performance of the season.  They upset the Colts 45-33 on the road in what was a must-win game for Indianapolis.  Drew Lock accounted for five touchdowns with four passing and one rushing in the win.  Brian Daboll improved to 8-2 ATS in the final three weeks of the season as a head coach.  Daboll is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the final two weeks of the season.

He will have these Giants ready to go again Sunday as he is coaching for his job.  The Eagles have already announced Barkley, Hurts, Brown and Smith will sit, and obviously several other starters will be sitting as well.  Nick Siriani is playing this smart knowing that he has no incentive to win this game, and to be honest the Eagles as a franchise would be better off letting the Giants win to assure the Giants don't get a top pick and thus strike out yet again on a franchise quarterback.

Philadelphia backup QB Kenny Pickett got hurt in their last game and will likely miss this game.  That means the Eagles would be down to third-string QB Tanner McKee, who took his first NFL snaps every last week.  It's hard to see any QB for the Eagles having much success without their top three weapons in Barkley, Brown and Smith.  This is going to be an ugly offensive performance for the Eagles, and their defense is loaded at the top but the depth will be tested in a big way here.

The Giants are only missing three starters this week in LB McFadden and two offensive linemen, but their O-Line has been banged up all season.  Lock has all of his top weapons available including Nabers, Tracy, Robinson and Slayton and they are forming a nice chemistry to finish the season.  The defense is in good shape with LB Thibodeaux returning, a fully healthy secondary and Burns expected to go.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Chicago Bears +9.5

I grabbed the Bears +9.5 Sunday night anticipating the Packers would be resting starters.  This line is +10 as of this writing because Matt LaFleur is expected to play starters.  The real question is how long will they play, and I have a hard time believing they will play all four quarters.  If they don't, the Bears should not be 10-point underdogs and this will be a great bet.

Josh Jacobs has already hinted he won't be taking a full workload, and I think that will be the case for the rest of the starters.  Best case if you bet the Packers is they play all starters for an entire half.  

Green Bay is locked into the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NFC.  Of course, they would rather have the 6th seed because then they would avoid the Eagles in the first round.  But they don't have any control over it because the Commanders have the tiebreaker over the Packers.  If the Commanders beat the Cowboys, they are going to be the 6th seed.  

Head coach Dan Quinn has already said they are going to fight like hell to win that game and get the 6th seed.  I don't expect the Cowboys to offer much resistance with how banged up their are right now and coming off a 41-7 loss to the Eagles.  If the Packers see the Commanders crushing the Cowboys at halftime, they are going to pull starters.

The Packers used a lot of energy in trying to come back from a 17-point deficit to beat the Vikings last week.  They got close losing 27-25, but they managed just 271 total yards in what was a misleading final.  Jordan Love looked disinterested for much of the game because it was nearly a meaningless game for the Packers.  This game is nearly meaningless as well, and I don't expect them to put their best foot forward as a result.

I love the spot for the Bears.  They get a mini-bye week after losing by 3 to the Seahawks on Thursday.  They will be the much fresher team, and they will be the much more motivated team.  They have lost 11 consecutive games to the Packers.  They are tired of hearing about that losing streak for the last six years, and now they get a chance to end it with the Packers not fully motivated. At the very least there's a ton of value in backing Chicago as double-digit dogs this week given the favorable circumstances.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* AFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Jaguars/Colts OVER 44

The Colts are a dead nuts OVER team right now.  They have gone 4-0 OVER in their last four games overall with 44 or more combined points in all four games.  They combined for 49 points with the Patriots, 68 with the Titans and 78 with the Giants.

That 45-33 loss to the Giants last week was alarming. The Colts gave up 5 total touchdowns to Drew Lock of the Giants.  They also allowed 422 total yards to the Patriots during this stretch, and 30 points to the Titans and 31 points to the Broncos.  This is a very bad defense, and I imagine Gus Bradley will not longer get a defensive coordinator job in the NFL after this season.

But the Colts have a very good offense no matter who is under center.  In their last two games they put up 38 points and 454 total yards on the Titans and 33 points and 446 total yards on the Giants.  Anthony Richardson got back spasms prior to the Giants game and was a late scratch, and he is questionable to play this week.  The good news is I like the Colts no matter who is under center.

Joe Flacco got the Colts in a shootout with the Jaguars in a 37-34 loss for 71 combined points in their first meeting this season in Jacksonville.  These teams combined for 944 total yards in that game.  Flacco threw for 359 and 3 touchdowns.  Whoever is under center will be able to score at will against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 28th in scoring at 25.6 points per game, 31st in total defense at 387.5 yards per game and 31st at 6.1 yards per play.

Mac Jones is a downgrade from Trevor Lawrence, but he is playing the best football of his career in Jacksonville and he is having a lot of fun, and his guys are playing hard for him.  Jones is completing 66% of his passes this season.  He has completed at least 63% of his passes in five consecutive games while throwing for at least 220 yards in four of those five.  He is in line for likely his best game of the season against this soft Indianapolis zone defense.  The Colts rank 27th in scoring defense at 25.2 points per game and 29th in total defense at 363.8 yards per game.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 52 or more combined points in all four and an average of 60.3 combined points per game.  This total of 44 is simply too short for a game involving two of the worst defenses in the NFL in perfect scoring conditions in the dome in Indianapolis.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFC Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Panthers/Falcons OVER 47.5

The Carolina Panthers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-4 OVER in all games this season.  They have the worst defense in the NFL, and their offense has been greatly improved since Bryce Young got a 2nd chance.

The Panthers rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense allowing 31.0 points per game and dead last in total defense allowing 396.2 yards per game.  But their defense is even worse now due to all the injuries.  They just allowed 48 points and 551 total yards to the Bucs last week.

The Panthers are 11 players on defense listed out.  They just lost CB Jaycee Horn, NB Smith-Wade and LB Josey Jewell to add them to the list.  LB Johnson is out and LB Clowney is questionable, as is DE Robinson.  What a mash unit this defense is.

The Falcons look revived on offense under Michael Penix Jr.  He has performed as well as can be expected in leading the Falcons to 34 points in his first start against the Giants, and 24 points last week against the Commanders.  He did everything in his power to win them that game against Washington last week, but unfortunately the Falcons lost the coin flip in OT so he never got the ball to go win it.  Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson are in line for huge games against this Carolina defense as the Falcons can basically name their number.

But what cost the Falcons last week was their defense being on the field for nearly the entire 2nd half.  They wore down and couldn't get a stop in OT.  Because they were on the field for so long, I think the Falcons are going to give up a lot of points this week. They are going to wear down again in the 2H and Bryce Young and company are going to be able to put up some points late.  Young has recently put up 36 points on Arizona and 27 on Kansas City during this resurgence.

Atlanta beat Carolina 38-20 for 58 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Kirk Cousins had a big game in leading the Falcons to 38 points and 423 yards, and they rushed for nearly 200 yards as a team. The Panthers had 335 yards and plenty of success as well with Andy Dalton at QB.  He didn't have the services of Adam Thielen, who has formed a great chemistry with Young.  Thielen has 32 receptions for 405 yards and 4 TD in his last five games with Young.

This game will be played in perfect conditions in the dome in Atlanta.  I think with it being the final game of the season likely for both teams they will want to put up as big of numbers offensively as possible.  The offenses have the advantage over the defenses in this game.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Jazz/Heat OVER 223.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 games overall with 237 or more combined points in nine of those 12 games.

This total of 223.5 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.

I think the Heat without Jimmy Butler are actually more of an OVER team.  He is a great defender, and the ball sticks in his hands on offense.  So they play more freely and more team basketball without Butler on the court, while also being much worse off defensively.  The OVER is 3-1 in their last four games overall with 227 or more combined points in three of those four games.

The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with 226 or more combined points in six of those seven meetings.  I like OVERS in these non-conference games between teams that aren't familiar with one another because the unfamiliarity tends to favor offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Spurs UNDER 239

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  This is one of those rare home-and-home situations in the NBA.  The Spurs just beat the Nuggets 113-110 in Denver last night for 223 combined points, and now they square off again tonight in San Antonio.

I was actually on the OVER 235.5 last night in that game and lost.  Now they have set the total at 239 for the rematch, and it should not be set higher than it was last night given the situation of the familiarity.  Victor Wembenyama defends Jokic as well as anyone in the NBA, so points for the Nuggets are very hard to come by.

The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four meetings with 223 or fewer combined points in three of those four meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +5.5

I love the spot for the Chicago Bulls tonight.  They are rested after having the last two days off, and they are pissed off coming off one of their worst losses of the season to the Wizards.

The Bulls have a big rest advantage over the Knicks, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 117-107 loss in Oklahoma City last night.  It will also be the 6th game in 9 days for the Knicks, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA.

Amazingly, all five starters for the Knicks played at least 40 minutes last night.  Don't be surprised if one or more of those starters rest tonight.  They were already without key backup PG Miles McBride due to a hamstring injury, and they really miss him backing up Brunson.

The Bulls upset the Knicks 124-123 as 8.5-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season on November 13th.  Now they are catching 5.5 points in the rematch at home in a much more favorable rest spot.  Bet the Bulls Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Denver/South Dakota OVER 163

South Dakota is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Coyotes are 10-2-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 9th in adjusted tempo and 26th in average length of offensive possession at 15.5 seconds.  They are one of the worst defensive teams in the country ranking 353rd in adjusted defensive out of 364 teams.

Now they face another terrible defensive team in Denver, which ranks 337th in adjusted defense.  The Pioneers also let their opponents get shots up quickly ranking 14th in average length of possession defensively at 16.1 seconds.  South Dakota will control the tempo playing at home today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Pacers OVER 234.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 21-13-1 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 7th in pace, 9th in offensive rating and 23rd in defensive rating.

The Phoenix Suns are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which they are right now.  Durant, Booker, Beal and Nurkic have all missed significant time this season, but all are healthy with the exception of Beal, who is questionable after playing last game so it's likely he plays again tonight.  Especially since the Suns have had the last three days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days.

The OVER is 5-0 in Pacers last five games overall with 232 or more combined points in all five games.  They are as healthy as they have been all season.  They are up against a Phoenix team that ranks 22nd in defensive rating and 10th in offensive rating.  The Pacers will control the tempo playing at home.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas Tech/Utah OVER 154

Utah is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Utes rank 30th in adjusted tempo and 35th in average length of offensive possession.  They like to play fast and they have scored at least 78 points in 11 of their 12 games this season.

Texas Tech is a dead nuts OVER team going 8-3-1 OVER in all games this season.  The Red Raiders are elite on offense rank 14th in adjusted offense, 6th in effective FG percentage and 13th in 3-point percentage.  They are loaded with 3-point shooters all over the floor.  They have scored at least 76 points in 11 of their 12 games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Baltimore Ravens -17

The Baltimore Ravens will be max motivated on Saturday to clinch the AFC North and the #3 seed in the AFC.  They also want revenge on the Cleveland Browns after losing to Jameis Winston on the road in their first meeting.  But they won't have to face Winston this time around.

The Ravens are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall crushing the Giants by 21 on the road, the Steelers by 17 at home and the Texans by 29 on the road.  They are about as healthy as they have been all season, and their defense is playing as well as it has all year.

Lamar Jackson is on the cusp of winning another MVP.  I think he wants to put up big numbers in this game to make his case.  Jackson leads the league's top-ranked offense rank 1st in total offense at 424.2 yards per game and 1st at 7.0 yards per play.  They are also scoring 30.2 points per game this season.

The Browns will go with a mix of Dorian-Thompson Robinson and Bailey Zappe at quarterback.  DTR has scored a total of 6 points in the last 20-plus drives for the Browns.  I would prefer he gets the bulk of the reps, but Zappe hasn't had any success in the NFL either.

Whoever is under center won't have the services of their top three RB.  Chubb is out with a season-ending injury, and both Ford and Strong went out with injuries last week and have been placed on injured reserve.  Star TE David Njoku is also out, as is WR Cedric Tillman.  The Browns have scored a total of 16 points in their last three games, or an average of 5.3 points per game.

While the Browns defense is pretty good when fully healthy, that is no longer the case.  They lost three more starters to injury last week in DT Tomlinson, LB Hicks and CB Ward, who will all be out this week.  They already had six defenders on IR.  I don't expect their defense to hold up at all this week.  

The Browns have incentive to lose this game to get the best draft pick possible as they are in a four-way tie for the worst record in the NFL at 3-13 on the season.  Management is doing everything they can to put the players on the field that give them the best chance to lose.  This has blowout written all over it.  Bet the Ravens Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Cincinnati -2.5

Cincinnati is one of the best teams in the country this season.  The Bearcats are 10-2 with their two losses coming to Villanova and Kansas State, but thoe were two true road games.  They beat Xavier at home and Dayton on a neutral.

Cincinnati went 16-5 SU at home in the rugged Big 12 last season and is 7-0 SU at home this season.  The Bearcats have one of the better home-court advantages in the conference, and they will be highly motivated in their Big 12 home opener here after losing by 3 at Kansas State on the road in their Big 12 opener.

Arizona is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Wildcats are 7-5 SU & 5-7 ATS this season.  They lost by 15 at Wisconsin, by 14 at home to Duke, by 5 on a neutral to Oklahoma, by 7 on a neutral to WVU and by 3 in a semi-home game against UCLA.  Their seven wins have all come against suspect competition.  Their best win was a 9-point home win over TCU as a 14-point favorite.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska -1

It will be a sellout for the Nebraska Cornhuskers (11-2) today in what is one of the toughest environments to play in the country.  This will be just the second true road game this season for UCLA, and I don't expect it to go well for the Bruins.

This is such a tough spot for UCLA.  After losing by 2 to North Carolina at Madison Square Garden, the Bruins bounced back with a 65-62 upset win over Gonzaga on a neutral.  This is their 3rd huge game in a row, and I don't expect them to be up to task.

After going 18-1 SU at home last season, the Huskers are 7-0 SU at home this season for a combined 25-1 SU record at home the last two seasons.  So getting them as only 1-point favorites is tremendous value today.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas +12

The Tennessee Vols are 13-0 and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that #1 ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are very difficult to live up to.  In fact, I'm confident if you bet against the #1 team in every game this season you will make a big profit.

The Volunteers are 0-2 ATS in their last two games overall.  They only beat Middle Tennessee by 18 as 26.5-point home favorites and Norfolk State by 15 a 29.5-point home favorites, not even coming close to covering in either game.  Now they are laying 12 points to one of the best teams they have faced all season in Arkansas.

It was going to take some time for John Calipari's squad to gel, but the Razorbacks are on a roll now improving to 11-2 on the season with six consecutive victories.  Their only two losses this season came by 5 to Baylor on a neutral and by 13 to Illinois on a neutral.  They beat Miami on the road and Michigan on a neutral, so they have been tested.  

I think they'll be up to the test today ranking 23rd in adjusted defense, so their effort on that game will keep them competitive for 40 minutes.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Ole Miss -4

Ole Miss is 11-2 this season with its only losses coming on a neutral to Purdue by 2 and at Memphis.  The Rebels should be bigger home favorites over the Georgia Bulldogs today.

Georgia is getting a lot of respect for its 12-1 record this season.  But the Bulldogs have played the 331st-ranked schedule in the country with one of the easiest slates in the nation.  

They have only played one true road game and that was an 8-point win at lowly Georgia Tech, which wasn't that much of a road game.  Their true colors showed in an 11-point loss to Marquette on a neutral, the best opponent they have faced outside Ole Miss.  Bet Ole Miss Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma State +8.5

This is a massive letdown spot for West Virginia.  The Mountaineers are coming off a 62-61 win at Kansas as 13.5-point underdogs in their Big 12 opener.  It was the first time since 1991 the Jayhawks opened 0-1 in conference play.

The Mountaineers won't be nearly as motivated to beat Oklahoma State, which hung tough with Houston at home in its Big 12 opener.  I think the Cowboys are very live underdogs today given the letdown spot for the Mountaineers.

The Mountaineers will be without Tucker DeVries (14.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.5 BPG) and could be without Amani Hansberry (10.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG), who is questionable.  They aren't good enough without these two to be laying this big of a number.  

The Cowboys are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* Buffalo/Liberty Bahamas Bowl No-Brainer on Buffalo ML -127

Sometimes bowl games are all about motivation.  And I have no doubt Buffalo is going to be the more motivated team in the Bahamas Bowl against Liberty.  They will also be the better team considering all the players that Liberty is missing.

Expectations were very low for Buffalo this season.  First-year head coach Pete Lembo took over a 3-9 team and turned the Bulls into a contender in the MAC despite being picked by most to finish near the bottom of the conference.  The Bulls went 8-4 this season with all four losses coming to bowl teams in Ohio, WMU, UConn and Missouri.  They also beat fellow bowl teams NIU and Toledo, who both won their bowl games.  Those six bowl teams went a combined 5-1 in bowl games.

Liberty failed to even make the championship game of the worst conference in the country in C-USA.  They were odds-on favorites to win the conference coming in.  They lost to Sam Houston State in their regular season finale, needed OT to beat a terrible UMass (2-10) team, and had several other questionable efforts throughout the season including an outright loss to Kennesaw State (2-10).  They also needed OT to beat awful FIU (4-8).

The biggest loss for the Flames is QB Kaidon Salter, who left for Colorado to try and take the place of Shedeur Sanders.  Three starters along the offensive line hit the transfer portal, as did starting DL Dixon and DL Nairne.  Former App State transfer Ryan Burger will start at QB.  All six players in the portal won't play in the bowl game and head coach Jamey Chadwell said he expects more opt-outs.  Starting S Quinton Reese and starting TE Bentley Hanshaw didn't play in the finale due to injuries.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has the exact same depth chart for the bowl game as it did in the regular season finale.  The Bulls went 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games outscoring those opponents by a combined 67 points. Their offense is humming scoring 37 or more points in five of their last six games.  They want to be here and the Flames don't.  I also believe the Bulls are the better team in their current state.  Bet Buffalo on the Money Line in the Bahamas Bowl Saturday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Spurs/Nuggets OVER 235.5

Since losing their best defender in Aaron Gordon to injury, the Denver Nuggets have been a dead nuts OVER team.  They have inserted Russell Westbrook into the starting lineup in place of Gordon, and Westbrook is a dead nuts OVER play adding a lot on offense but taking away a lot on defense.

The OVER is 7-2 in Nuggets last nine games overall with 250 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  These games have been flying OVER the total.  They combined for 259 with Atlanta, 253 with Utah, 255 with Detroit, 284 with Cleveland, 261 with New Orleans, 250 with Portland and 259 with Sacramento.

The San Antonio Spurs are as healthy as they have been all season and we are seeing more high scoring games as a result.  The OVER is 8-4 in Spurs last 12 games overall.  The OVER is 3-2 in the last five meetings with 242 or or combined points in three of those five.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Houston Rockets +2.5

This is a tough spot for the Boston Celtics tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 118-115 win in Minnesota last night.  Four of five starters played at least 35 minutes for the Celtics last night.

They were without both Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis and there's a good chance both of them sit tonight.  They could elect to rest one of either Tatum, Horford, Holiday or White who were the five starters to play at least 35 minutes last night.

The Houston Rockets are rested and ready to go after having yesterday off, and playing just their 2nd game in 5 days tonight.  The Rockets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA going 22-11 SU & 20-13 ATS this season.  They will be licking their chops at the opportunity to take down the defending champs at home tonight.

The Celtics have been grossly overvalued this season after winning the title last year.  They are just 12-20-1 ATS in all games.  They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pelicans OVER 232

The Washington Wizards finally have both Poole and Kuzma on the court at the same time, which has been rare this season.  They are dead nuts OVER team with these two on the court because they are both scorers on offense and terrible defenders on defense.

The Wizards rank 4th in pace and 27th in defensive rating, which makes them a dead nuts OVER team.  They take on a New Orleans Pelicans team that ranks 29th in defensive rating, so these are two of the four worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The OVER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five games overall with 227 or more combined points in all five games.  They combined for 256 with Memphis, 239 with Houston and 261 with Denver.  They are healthier than they have been in a long time too and Murray, Murphy III and McCollum are all good offensive players but not good defenders.

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Wizards and Pelicans.  The last two have been crazy high scoring combining for 259 points in New Orleans and 264 points in Washington.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Michigan State/Ohio State Big Ten No-Brainer on Ohio State -1

No conference has a better home-court advantage than the Big Ten.  I think we are getting the Ohio State Buckeyes at a discount tonight as only 1-point favorites over the Michigan State Spartans in a battle between two pretty evenly-matched teams.

Ohio State is 7-1 SU & 6-1-1 ATS at home this season with their only loss coming by a single point.  The Buckeyes are playing very well here of late including a 85-65 win over Kentucky on a neutral as 8.5-point dogs two games ago.  They won their lone conference home game 80-66 as 5-point favorites over Rutgers.

Michigan State will be playing just its 2nd true road game this season.  The first was a win against one of the worst teams in the Big Ten in Minnesota.  This is going to be the toughest test of the season for the Spartans tonight.  Their two losses came to Memphis and Kansas on a neutral.  

The Buckeyes are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Spartans.  Bet Ohio State Friday.

20* Minnesota/Virginia Tech Mayo Bowl No-Brainer on Minnesota -7

PJ Fleck is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in bowl games as the head coach at Minnesota.  Few coaches take bowl games more seriously than Fleck does.  And I expect him to have his guys ready to go for the Mayo Bowl against Virginia Tech Friday.

The Gophers have been an undervalued commodity all season going 7-5 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in all games this season.  They aren't the most flashy team, but they do have the best passing game they've had in a long time, and they are still great on defense and in the running game which is the case every year under Fleck.

QB Max Brosmer was a great addition in the transfer portal.  He is completing 66.8% of his passes for 2,617 yards with a 17-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  The Gophers have scored at least 24 points in six of their last eight games and finished strong, going 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven games.  That includes a 1-point loss to Penn State and a 7-point loss at Rutgers.  They beat Wisconsin by 17 on the road, Illinois by 8 on the road, Maryland by 25 at home, UCLA by 4 on the road and USC by 7 at home.

Minnesota has yet another elite defense ranking 12th in the country allowing 17.5 points per game and 7th in total defense at 290.9 yards per game.  The Gophers will likely have a few players sit including RT Phillip Daniels and OT Aireontae Ersery, but there losses aren't nearly as big as what Virginia Tech is dealing with.

Indeed, the Hokies will be missing a ton of starters.  They will be without starting LT Xavier Chaplin, starting C Braelin Moore, starting CB Mansoor Delane, starting S Mose Phillips, LB Sam Brumfield, LB Keli Lawson and RB Malachi Thomas.  DE Powell-Ryland, DT Peebles, WR Felton, WR Lane and CB Strong have all opted out.

That doesn't even include the fact that the Hokies will be missing their two best players on offense in QB Drones and RB Tuten.  Tuten, RG Moore, DT Pene and SS Jenkins all weren't spotted at a recent practice, so the Hokies could be down as many as 14 starters.  It will either be backup QB Schlee or Pop Watson at QB.  What a mess.  Bet Minnesota in the Mayo Bowl Friday.

15* North Texas/Texas State First Responder Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Texas State -13.5

This is much more of a fade of North Texas than a play on Texas State.  The players the Mean Green will be missing in this game will be too much to overcome, and I fully expect them to get blown out by the Bobcats in the First Responder Bowl.

North Texas QB Chandler Morris has left for Virginia.  He is completing 63.1% of his passes for 3,774 yards with a 31-to-12 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 242 yards and four TD.  That leaves true freshman Drew Mestemaker to start in his place, and those are some massive shoes to fill considering Mestermaker has only attempted five passes all season.

But that's not where it ends.  Leading WR DT Sheffield (66 receptions, 822 yards, 11 TD) has committed to Rutgers.  Starting T Oscar Hammond (19, 238 1 TD) has committed to ORegon State.  Starting C Tyler Mercer and starting LG Leke Asenuga are also both out.  Starting OT Larry Moore is out with an injury.  The Mean Green will be relying on a ton of freshmen on offense, and I just don't think they'll have the firepower to keep up with Texas State.

That's especially the case considering Texas State has an explosive offense and will be up against one of the worst defenses they've seen all season in the Mean Green.  North Texas ranks 121st in scoring defense at 34.5 points per game, 127th in total defense at 456.6 yards per game and 108th at 6.1 yards per play.

Texas State only allows 24.2 points per game, 347.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play to compare, so they have by far the superior defense.  The Bobcats went 7-5 SU this season but were much better than that record would indicate.  Four of their five losses came by one score, and the other was a 10-point loss.  That includes a 3-point loss to Arizona State, which made the four-team playoff.

The Bobcats will only for sure be without three starters to the transfer portal and possibly five or six.  The biggest of note is RB Ismail Mahdi (991 yards, 4 TD, 5.4/carry).  But backup RB's Pare (404 yards, 6 TD, 5.5/carry) and Burgess (344 yards, 2 TD, 6.4/carry) are ready to fill his shoes.  

There are rumors QB Jordan McCloud may not play significant snaps since I released this play, but backup RJ Martinez is an intriguing transfer from Baylor.  He has completed 18-of-24 passes this season.  Whoever is under center will have three 600-yard receivers at his disposal as none of the receivers have opted out.

North Texas went 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in its final six games of the season.  The Mean Green needed a 24-17 win at lowly Temple (3-9) in their finale just to make a bowl game.  They stand no chance of keeping this game competitive without Morris, Sheffield and several others.  Bet Texas State in the First Responder Bowl Friday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Pepperdine +17.5

St. Mary's is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Gaels are just 3-10 ATS in lined games this season.  Recent results for them have been very concerning.

In their last three games they only beat Merrimack by 5 as 20.5-point home favorites, lost outright to Utah State by 7 as 5.5-point home favorites and only beat Pacific by 10 as 20.5-point home favorites.  Now they are laying 17.5 points to an underrated Pepperdine team.

The Waves are grossly undervalued going 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They only lost by 7 to Gonzaga as 20.5-point home dogs last time out to show their potential.  They lost by 11 at Santa Clara as 15-point dogs, crushed UC Davis by 39 as 1-point home favorites and also covered in wins over NAU and Grambling.  That 7-point loss to Gonzaga says all you need to know about their potential.  Bet Pepperdine Thursday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on South Dakota/UMKC OVER 157

The South Dakota Coyotes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 10-1-1 OVER in all lined games this season.  They are scoring 86.6 points per game and allowing 80.0 points per game.  They rank 6th in adjusted tempo and 354th in adjusted defense.

Kansas City has let opponents get up quick shots all season as they rank 40th in average length of possession on defense.  They are also a pretty poor defensive team ranking 207th in adjusted defense.  They shoot a ton of 3-pointers ranking 43rd in 3PA/FGA, which will help the OVER as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Pacers/Heat OVER 223.5

This total is way too low for a game involving the Pacers and Heat.  Each of the last six meetings between the Pacers and Heat have seen 227 or more combined points, making for a perfect 6-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 223.5-point total.

Both the Pacers and Heat are as healthy as they have been all season and clicking offensively.  The OVER is 4-0 in Pacers last four games overall with 232 or more combined points in all four games.  The Heat have gone for 227 and 230 combined points in two of their last three games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jazz/Knicks OVER 230.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 10-1 in Jazz last 11 games overall with 237 or more combined points in nine of those 11 games.

This total of 230.5 is very low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  What makes them such an OVER team is that they like to play fast while also simultaneously ranking dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  Their offense is much better when they are as healthy as they are right now.

The New York Knicks have had a huge switch this season from a defensive team to an offensive team simply with the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns.  The Knicks actually rank 2nd in offensive rating only behind the Cavaliers.  They have really slipped defensively ranking 14th in that category.

The OVER is 4-1 in Knicks last five games overall with 231 or more combined points in four of those five games.  This total is simply too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons ML -120

The Orlando Magic are without Banchero (29.0 PPG), Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG) and Mo Wagner (12.9 PPG).  Jalen Suggs is banged up and Anthony Black (8.5 PPG) is questionable.  That's so much production they are without right now, and I don't think they should be listed close to a PK on the road at Detroit tonight.

The Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season and playing as well as they have all season as a result.  The Pistons are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall, winning 133-125 as 6-point dogs at Phoenix, 117-114 as 6-point dogs at the Lakers and 114-113 as 5-point dogs at Sacramento.  Their lone loss came by 13 on the road at Denver.

The Pistons have had the last three days off and will be fresh and ready to go tonight.  They will also be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days.  It will be the 4th game in 7 days for the Magic, so the Pistons have a big rest advantage as well.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Pistons on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Ohio State/Oregon Rose Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 55

This is a rematch from a 32-31 win by Oregon on October 12th.  Honestly, the 63 combined points was about the minimum they could have scored when you look at the box score.  Oregon had 496 total yards and Ohio State had 467, so they combined for 953 total yards.  There were four field goals including three of 27 yards or fewer.  And Ohio State should have had another FG to win the game but mismanaged the clock in the closing seconds.

It was one of Will Howard's best games of the season for Ohio State as he went 28-of-35 passing for 326 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.  Dillon Gabriel went 23-of-34 passing for 341 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Both teams have weaknesses in the secondary that will be exploited again in the rematch.

Ohio State got conservative late in the season.  Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly made the proper adjustments heading into the playoffs and opened it up against a very good Tennessee defense.  The Buckeyes put up 21 points in the 1st quarter before anyone could blink in a 42-17 win over Tennessee.  Howard finished 24-of-29 passing for 311 yards and 2 TD with one INT against that stout Tennessee defense.  Kelly and Howard will keep their foot on the gas this week.

Oregon got a much-needed bye after an ugly win at Wisconsin.  The Ducks came out of that bye with their hair on fire on offense.  They blasted Washington 49-21 before topping Penn State 45-37 in a shootout in the Big Ten Championship Game.  It's tough to get in a shootout with Penn State because they are suspect on offense and elite on defense.  It just goes to show what Oregon is capable of on offense, and their their defense is overrated.

Penn State managed 518 total yards against Oregon.  Of course, Ohio State put up 467 yards on the Ducks in that first meeting.  Their defense is definitely their weakness.  But Oregon is elite on offense. They Ducks rank 13th in scoring at 35.9 points per game, 14th in total offense at 449.8 yards per game and 15th at 6.6 yards per play.  That's impressive playing in the rugged Big Ten.

Oregon has scored at least 31 points in 11 of its last 12 games and will likely get to 31 or more here.  I expect Ohio State to get into the 30's as well in what will be another shootout as neither defense has an answer for these two elite offenses, especially now that the Buckeyes have opened things up.  Bet the OVER in the Rose Bowl Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Lakers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 228

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 21-11 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 7th in pace this season which is a deadly combination.  They are playing faster and shooting a lot more 3's this season.

The OVER is 3-0 in Lakers last three games overall with 254, 228 and 231 combined points.  They have scored at least 113 points in five of their last six games overall.  The only exception was when they were held to 103 points by the Kings the game after playing the Kings, so they were both very familiar with how to stop one another.

The Cavaliers have scored at least 124 points in five of their last six games overall, and 113 or more points in 12 consecutive games coming in.  The Cavaliers beat the Lakers 134-110 for 244 combined points in their first meeting this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* Boise State/Penn State Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Boise State +11

From a line value perspective there's clearly value on Boise State.  Penn State just hosted SMU and was a 9-point favorite at home.  That game was played in extremely cold weather against a warm weather team in the Mustangs.  I believe Boise State is better than SMU, especially considering as of this writing the ACC is 1-9 SU & 0-10 ATS in bowl games now.

Now Penn State is an 11-point favorite over Boise State on a neutral in Glendale, AZ where the Broncos will have the majority of the fans.  This line is way out of whack and it should be Penn State -7 or less.  I'll gladly take the value and back the Broncos, who also have the rest and preparation advantage after getting a bye into the quarterfinals.

Boise State is 12-1 SU this season with its only loss coming 37-34 at Oregon, which remains unbeaten and the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  That game was every bit as close as the final score indicated as the Broncos actually outgained the Ducks 369 to 352 for the game.

Boise State also beat Washington State 45-24 back when Washington State was good.  The Broncos also beat UNLV twice this season having to beat them in the Mountain West Championship Game to make the four-team playoff.  That's a very good UNLV team that is also grossly undervalued.

Penn State has always struggled in big games under James Franklin.  Franklin is 3-19 SU against Top 10 teams as Penn State's head coach, including 1-14 SU against Top 5 teams.  Just this season alone the Nittany Lions lost 20-13 at home to Ohio State and 45-37 on a neutral to Oregon.  That gives these teams a common opponent as Boise State lost 37-34 to Oregon, but that was on the road in Eugene, which is a huge difference.  Penn State got to play Oregon in Big Ten country in Indianapolis.

I also think Penn State's misleading 38-10 win over SMU in the opening playoff game is giving them too much respect here.  Their first two scores of the game were pick-6's that totally changed the game.  It looked like SMU was going to score and take the lead twice early, but the two pick 6's flipped it.  Penn State only had 325 total yards against a shaky SMU defense.  The Mustangs were also missing several key players that led to their success during the regular season.

Boise State has tremendous balance even though star RB Ashton Jeanty gets all the credit.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring offense at 39.1 points per game, 6th in total offense at 470.2 yards per game and 6th at 6.8 yards per play.  They average 250.5 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry, which ranks 5th and 2nd respectively, but they also throw for 219.6 yards per game and 7.5 per attempt.  

The strength of their defense is stopping the run which makes this a good matchup for them against run-heavy Penn State.  The Broncos allow 115.1 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry this season.  They also create a lot of havoc in opposing backfields.  Bet Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on San Jose State +3.5

San Jose State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  The Spartans have gone a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Even their losses were impressive recently as they lost by 6 at New Mexico as 19.5-point road dogs and by 2 to Boise State as 8.5-point home dogs.

Now the Spartans face one of the most overrated teams in the country in Colorado State, which is 7-6 SU & 4-9 ATS this season.  The Rams just lost by 8 at home to New Mexico as 1-point favorites to give them a common opponent with San Jose State, which gave the Lobos more of a fight on the road to boot.

Colorado State lost by 17 at Colorado and by 15 to Ole Miss on a neutral.  They were upset by UCRiverside at home and really just don't have many good wins.  They needed OT to beat Tennessee State early in the season at home which was a sign of things to come for the Rams.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet San Jose State Tuesday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona State +9.5

Arizona State is one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They got blown out by Duke in exhibition season and have been undervalued since.  The Sun Devils are 9-2 SU & 8-3 ATS this season despite facing a brutal schedule.

The Sun Devils have faced the 49th-toughest schedule int he country.  Their two losses came to Florida and Gonzaga, which are both Top 10 teams.  They beat the likes of New Mexico, St. Mary's, Grand Canyon and Santa Clara.  I would put BYU in the same category as those four teams in terms of talent level.

BYU is 9-2 SU & 6-5 ATS this season against a much softer schedule.  In fact, the Cougars have played the 361st-ranked schedule in the country.  Only three teams have faced an easier schedule.  BYU lost by 11 to Ole Miss and by 19 to Providence, and that loss to Providence looks really bad.  Asking the Cougars to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet Arizona State Tuesday.

25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Baylor ML -115

The Baylor Bears are quietly playing as well as almost anyone in the country heading into bowl season.  They were a hail mary and OT loss to Colorado away from playing in the Big 12 Championship Game, and may very well be the actual best team in the Big 12.

The Bears are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall beating Texas Tech by 24 on the road, Oklahoma State by 10 at home, TCU by 3 at home, West Virginia by 14 on the road, Houston by 10 on the road and Kansas by 28 at home.  That win over the Jayhawks in the regular season finale was mighty impressive considering Kansas was 5-6 on the season and desperate to get to a bowl game after beating both BYU and Colorado the previous two weeks.

This Baylor offense is hitting on all cylinders.  The Bears have scored at least 37 points in five of their last six games while averaging 41.3 points per game and 505.5 yards per game in their last six games.  They have tremendous balance and play at a break-neck pace.  Sawyer Robinson is one of the most underrated QB's in the country.  He has thrown for 2,626 yards with a 26-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 227 yards and four scores on the ground.

Baylor has very few key players in the transfer portal and very few injuries.  They are expected to get a pair of LB's back from injury as well who missed the finale.  Head coach Dave Aranda was the defensive coordinator at LSU when they won the National Championship.  He would love nothing more than to beat his former team.

While Baylor is going to have basically all hands on deck, LSU is going to be missing several key players.  Both starting offensive tackles in Will Campbell and Emery Jones as well as TE Mason Taylor (55 receptions, 546 yards, 2 TD) have declared for the NFL Draft.  Leading WR Kyren Lacy (58 receptions, 866 yards, 9 TD) has opted out and fourth-leading WR CJ Daniels (42 receptions, 480 yards) has committed to Miami.  Starting S Sage Ryan has committed to Ole Miss and fellow S Major Burns has opted out.

LSU will start three freshmen along the offensive line, and freshman Trey'Dez Green is the only scholarship TE available.  I think head coach Brian Kelly is much more concerned with locking in his roster for next season than he is about winning a bowl game, plus he doesn't have the horses to win it anyway.  

The Tigers finished 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their final five games this season with their two wins coming at home over Vanderbilt by 7 and Oklahoma by 20, while losing by 15 at Texas A&M, by 29 at home to Alabama and by 11 at Florida.  Baylor wants to be here more and has the more talented roster in its current state.  The Bears will also have the home-field advantage with this game being played in Houston, TX.  Bet Baylor on the Money Line in the Texas Bowl Tuesday.

15* South Carolina/Illinois Citrus Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +10

The Illinois Fighting Illini flew under the radar all season going 9-3 SU & 8-3-1 ATS.  They continue flying under the radar as double-digit underdogs to the South Carolina Gamecocks in the Citrus Bowl.

Illinois played everyone tough this season except for the No. 1 team in the country in Oregon on the road.  They also lost by 14 at Penn State in a game that was tied 7-7 midway through the 3rd quarter.  They also lost by 8 to Minnesota in what was a favorable rest spot for the Gophers.

The only opt-out for Illinois is WR Pat Bryant.  Head coach Bret Bielema said he doesn't expect any other opt-outs.  RG Zy Crisler is in the transfer portal but will play, as well WR Kenari Wilcher.  The Fighting Illini are in great shape heading into this bowl game.

South Carolina went 9-3 SU & 9-3 ATS this season and was grossly undervalued all year as well.  And with the upset of Clemson in the season finale, the Gamecocks come into this bowl game getting a ton of respect.  They are overvalued as double-digit favorites as this line should be much closer to 3 than 10.  They also get respect because they are in the SEC.

The Gamecocks have two big opt-outs in DE Kyle Kennard and RB Rahiem Sanders.  Sanders is a huge loss because he is a great back who refuses to go down.  He rushed for 881 yards and 11 TD this season.  Kennard will be a top draft pick after registering 11.5 sacks and forcing four fumbles.  He is their best player on defense.  

The Fighting Illini haven't won a bowl game since 2011 so they will be max motivated.  Bet Illinois in the Citrus Bowl Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Notre Dame/Georgia Tech UNDER 143

Notre Dame is a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Fighting Irish rank 279th in adjusted tempo and 302nd in average length of possession on offense.  They are even more of an UNDER team now that they are without their best player in PG Markus Burton (18.2 PPG).

Georgia Tech has injury concerns of its own missing G Kowacie Reeves Jr. (9.3 PPG) with fellow G Javian McCollum (10.7 PPG) listed as questionable.  The Yellow Jackets are dreadful on offense as it is.  In their last four games against respectable opponents, they scored 56 against Duke, 60 against Northwestern, 65 against UNC and 61 against Oklahoma.

I don't think either team exceeds 70 points in this one, so there is tremendous value on the UNDER 143 today.  GT and ND have combined for 138 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last four regular season meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Cavs/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 229.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 21-10 OVER in all games this season.  They rank 1st in offensive rating and 8th in pace this season which is a deadly combination.  They are playing faster and shooting a lot more 3's this season.

The Golden State Warriors are more of an OVER team now with Steph Curry and Dennis Schroeder healthy and on the court at the same time.  They give away some defense with both of them, but they need them offensively or they are broken.

The Cavs beat the Warriors 136-117 at home for 253 combined points in their first meeting this season when the total was set at 230.  This total of 229.5 is too short given that both teams are almost fully healthy right now.  The OVER is 5-0 in Cavs last five games overall, including 284 combined points with Denver last time out.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Nuggets/Jazz OVER 239.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 9-1 in Jazz last 10 games overall with 237 or more combined points in eight of those 10 games.

The Denver Nuggets are a dead nuts OVER team right now without Aaron Gordon, who is their best defender.  The OVER is 5-2 in Nuggets last seven games overall with 250 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  They combined for 284 points with the Cavs and 255 with the Pistons in their last two games coming in.

The Jazz rank dead last (30th) in defensive rating while the Nuggets rank 18th.  These are two very poor defenses that like to play fast with the Nuggets 5th in pace and the Jazz 12th.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Lions/49ers ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 51.5

The Detroit Lions are a dead nuts OVER team in their current form.  They are remarkably healthy on offense with one of the best offenses in the league that ranks 1st in scoring (32.9 PPG), 2nd in total offense (408.6 YPG) and 2nd in yards per play (6.4 YPP).  They did just lose RB David Montgomery to injury, but not having him actually makes them more of an OVER team.  They have to throw more and backup RB Jamir Gibbs is more explosive and better at catching the ball out of the backfield.

The Lions have more injuries on defense than any team in the NFL.  They have 14 defenders on IR alone.  And many of them are key contributors including DE Aidan Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill, LB Alex Anzalone, LB Malcolm Rodriquez and CB Carlton Davis III.  Those five are all starters and the Lions miss them greatly.

Detroit has been forced to try and win shootouts the last three weeks going 3-0 OVER.  They accomplished it with a 34-31 win over Green Bay three weeks ago, but they couldn't get two weeks ago in a 48-42 loss to Buffalo.  They allowed 559 yards to the Bills.  They even tried an onside kick in the 2H because they knew they couldn't stop the Bills.  Goff threw for 494 yards and 5 TD in the loss.

Last week, the Lions beat the Bears 34-17 for 51 combined points.  But this game was 34-17 with 6:03 left in the 3rd quarter.  That means they didn't score for 20 minutes which just goes to show how much potential there is for more points.  The Lions called off the dogs, and the Bears were inept on offense.  The Lions had 475 yards on 7.3 yards per play, while the Bears had 382 yards on 6.5 yards per play but they shot themselves in the foot with turnovers and penalties including several holding penalties with a banged up offensive line.

The 49ers are going to make this Detroit defense pay for being down so many starters, and they will punch it in for scores like the Packers and Bills did previously.  The 49ers rank 10th in total offense at 365.7 yards per game and 4th at 6.4 yards per play.  This is still one of the best offenses in the NFL with ample weapons to get the job done.

But this has become a leaky, banged up 49ers defense especially along the front seven.  The 49ers allowed 29 points to the Dolphins, 35 to the Bills and 38 to the Packers in three of their last five games.  They just lost LB Dre Greenlaw and DE Leonard Floyd to injuries last week against the Dolphins to make matters worse.  I fully expect the Lions to score in the 30's, and the 49ers to get into the 20's at least as this thing sails OVER 51.5 combined points.

The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings including the 34-31 win by the 49ers in the playoffs last season that saw 65 combined points with the Lions finishing with 442 total yards and the 49ers with 413.  Both teams are a lot worse off defensively in the rematch this time around, while both offenses are still very potent.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +12

I love the spot for the Washington Wizards tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after a 136-132 (OT) loss to the Knicks at home on Saturday.  Now they get to host the Knicks two days later here and will be the much more motivated team.

The Wizards are also the fresher team playing just their 3rd game in 7 days.  They are also as healthy as they have been all season as Kyle Kuzma is expected back from injury tonight.

Jalen Brunson had 55 points in 44 minutes of action as all five starters played at least 38 minutes for the Knicks in that game Saturday.  Brunson is questionable to play tonight with a calf injury.  The Knicks will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days, so don't be surprised if they rest him or others.  Bet the Wizards Monday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati -3.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are 10-1 SU this season with wins over Xavier and Dayton.  They will be fully motivated for their Big 12 opener tonight against a Kansas State team that has been grossly overrated this season.

The Wildcats are 6-5 SU but 3-8 ATS this season.  Their six wins have come against New Orleans, Cleveland State, Mississippi Valley State, George Washington, Longwood and Arkansas-Pine Bluff.

When the Wildcats have stepped up in class they have not only lost, but they have been handled.  They lost by 11 to LSU at home, by 2 to Liberty on a neutral, by 17 at St. John's, by 3 to Drake in a semi-home game and by 19 at Wichita State.  I would argue Cincinnati is the best team they have played all season if it's not St. John's, and I do not expect it to go well for them tonight.  Bet Cincinnati Monday.

20* Falcons/Commanders NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta +4

This line should be 3 or less, so there's value in backing the Falcons as 4-point underdogs to the Washington Commanders.  The game means more to the Falcons too as they are life and death with the Bucs tied for first place, but they have the tiebreaker.  They need to win out because the Bucs are likely going to win out with two home games against the Panthers this week and the Saints next week.

Sure, the Commanders need one more win to assure themselves a playoff spot, but they aren't as desperate as the Falcons.  They have the beat up Cowboys next week to clinch that spot if they need it.  And that sets them up for a sandwich spot.  They are coming off a huge comeback 36-33 win over the Eagles last week after a last-second 20-19 win at New Orleans the previous week.  I question how much they have left in the tank, and they could easily not be 'all in' for this game knowing they have the Cowboys next week.  

I know the Falcons are not only 'all in' for a win this week, but also 'all in' on the decision to go with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback.  He has been overlooked everywhere he has gone dating back to his time at Indiana and taking Washington to the National Championship game in college.

Penix Jr. was very impressive in leading the Falcons to a 34-7 win over the Giants in his first start last week.  He went 18-of-27 passing for 202 yards and his accuracy is a clear strength.  Even his lone INT was his TE Pitts' fault as he dropped a ball near the goal line.  Penix Jr. looked in complete control of the offense, and he is ready to open it up if he has to this week.

What is flying under the radar with the Falcons is just how dominant they have been defensively in recent weeks.  They held the Chargers to 186 total yards, the Raiders to 9 points and 249 total yards and the Giants to 7 points and 234 total yards in three of their last four games.  They are much better defensively than the Commanders.

The Falcons are also one of the most healthy teams in the NFL right now which is a big reason for their success here down the stretch.  The Commanders are dealing with three key injuries to WR Dyami Brown, RT Andrew Wylie and CB Marshon Lattimore, who are all three out for this game.  They really have a weak secondary that Penix Jr. can exploit without Lattimore.  And the Commanders rank 29th in the NFL in allowing 137.4 rushing yards per game and 29th allowing 4.8 yards per carry, so expect a big day from Bijan Robinson to take some pressure off of Penix Jr.  Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis Grizzlies +7

Injuries are starting to pile up for the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They were already without Holmgren, and now Dort, Wallace and Caruso are out.  The lack of depth will catch up with them today.

The Thunder will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 106-94 road win at Charlotte yesterday as 13.5-point favorites against a depleted Hornets team.  They will also be playing in their 3rd different city in 4 days.  Four starters played over 31 minutes for the Thunder yesterday.

While the Grizzlies have injuries of their own, it's something they have gotten used to the last couple season and they just play through it and have shown off tremendous depth.  Despite all the injuries, the Grizzlies are 22-10 SU & 22-10 ATS this season as one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA.

The spot really favors the Grizzlies after having yesterday off.  They will be the fresher team, and that's worth a lot in the NBA.  I think getting +7 with Memphis is a nice value as they will be motivated to prove to the Thunder that they are the kings of the West this season.  Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors ML +105

This is a terrible spot for the Atlanta Hawks.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back following a 120-110 home win over the Miami Heat last night, who were missing Jimmy Butler.  They will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.

After playing four straight home games, the Hawks now hit the road for the first time since December 19 and have to travel across the border to Toronto.  They won't be motivated at all to beat the 7-24 Raptors.  They are extremely banged up without Okongwu, Daniels, Bogdanovic and Nance.  I wouldn't be surprised if any of their other starters sit after playing last night, including Young and Johnson, who both played more than 35 minutes.

The Raptors continue to fight every night.  They have Barrett, Barnes, Dick and Agbagi healthy and six other key players have been upgraded to questionable, including Poeltl, Brown and Mitchell after each sat out last game.  The Raptors are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  They'll be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days as well.

This is a huge step down in class for the Raptors after facing the Grizzlies and Knicks on the road and the Rockets at home in their last three games.  I think they take advantage here and put an end to their current nine-game losing streak against a brutal schedule.  Bet the Raptors on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Packers/Vikings NFC North No-Brainer on Minnesota ML -120

If both teams were max motivated and fully healthy this line would be about right.  But that's simply not the case.  The Vikings are way more motivated to win this game than the Packers, and the Vikings are also much healthier than the Packers to boot.

The Vikings are tied with the Lions for the best record in the NFC and the No. 1 seed on the line.  They have to win this game to make their Week 18 game against the Lions meaningful and for all the marbles.  A loss would eliminate them from the possibility of winning the division if the Lions beat the 49ers on Monday.

The Packers are locked into the 5th or 6th seed in the NFC.  They essentially have nothing to play for because they cannot win the division even if they win this game.  They have four losses and the Lions or Vikings are guaranteed to finish with three losses at worst since they play each other next week.

The Vikings are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now.  That's a big reason they are 13-2 SU & 10-4-1 ATS as one of the most underrated teams in the NFL.  They quietly take an 8-game winning streak into this game with the Packers Sunday afternoon.

The Packers are going to be without three key defenders this week in LB Quay Walker, CB Jaire Alexander and SS Evan Williams.  WR Christian Watson is questionable after getting hurt last week, as is starting NB Javon Bullard.  I think the Green Bay offense is capable of going score for score with the Vikings, but the difference is the Vikings are going to score at will against this banged up Green Bay defense.

Minnesota is 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS at home this season with its only loss coming 31-29 to Detroit.  The Vikings are outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per game at home with one of the best home-field advantages in the league.  You can bet its going to be the best atmosphere for any Minnesota home game all season with what's at stake and with a division rival in Green Bay coming to town.  Bet the Vikings on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Las Vegas Raiders ML -116

While many teams are hoping to lose out to get the best draft pick possible, the Las Vegas Raiders aren't one of them.  Anthony Pierce is a rebel and his players follow his lead.  Pierce and his Raiders treat every game like their life is at stake, and they will treat this one just the same.

The Raiders are remarkably healthy right now, and getting Aidan O'Connell back at QB means a lot to their offense.  O'Connell returned last week to throw for 257 yards in leading them to a 19-14 home win over the Jaguars.  This came on the heels of throwing for 340 yards and 2 TD against the Chiefs in the previous game he started and finished, which tells you all you need to know about what he's capable of.

The Saints are so beat up right now that they just cannot field a competitive team.  We saw just how bad the New Orleans Saints were earlier this season when they were without Derek Carr.  They lost 51-27 at home to Tampa Bay, 33-10 at home to Denver and 26-8 to the Chargers on the road in their first three games without Carr.  They were outscored by a total of 65 points in those three games or by an average of 21.7 points per game.

In their next game without Carr two weeks ago it was a very misleading loss to the Commanders.  Washington jumped out to a 17-0 lead and looked well on their way to a blowout.  But the Saints switched from Jake Haener to Spencer Rattler, and made a huge comeback.  The Saints ended up losing 20-19 after scoring on the final play of the game and missing the 2-point conversion.  They should have never gotten that play off as the refs stopped the clock prematurely.  They should have lost 20-13 best case, but it would have been worse if the Commanders didn't take their foot off the gas.  I think they were caught looking ahead to their huge game against the Eagles in the 2H.

Last week, the Saints got a dose of reality in a 34-0 loss to the Packers.  Rattler was indeed rattled, and he just didn't have much help with all the players he was missing.  The Saints fell to 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in games without Carr, getting outscored by an averaged of 20.0 points per game.

Carr remains out, but the Saints lost Alvin Kamara late in that loss to the Commanders and he sat out last week and was missed.  Kamara is out again this week, as are each of their top four receivers in Olave, Means, Shaheed and possibly Valdes-Scantling.  They are also without starting C Erik McCoy on offense and this offensive line is a mash unit, giving Rattler almost zero chance to be successful.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on 76ers/Jazz OVER 222.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 8-1 in Jazz last nine games overall with 237 or more combined points in eight of those nine games. This total of 222.5 is too low for a game involving the Jazz right now.

The Philadelphia 76ers finally have Maxey, George and Embiid on the court at the same time right now and it has made all the difference for them offensively.  The 76ers are 4-1 SU in their last five games overall scoring at least 108 points in all four wins, including 118 against the Celtics last time out in a 118-114 upset win as 9.5-point dogs on Christmas.

Now the 76ers are in line for one of their best offensive outputs of the season against a Jazz team that ranks dead last (30th) in defensive rating.  The Jazz also like to play fast so there will be a lot of possessions in this game with them controlling the tempo playing at home.

The Jazz and 76ers have combined for 251, 229 and 235 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  Unfamiliarity favors offense and high-scoring games, and these teams are unfamiliar with one another playing only twice a year in different conferences.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +6

The Detroit Pistons cap off a four-game road trip out West tonight and will be highly motivated to sweep it.  They have opened 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS upsetting Phoenix 133-125 as 6-point dogs, upsetting the Lakers 117-114 as 6-point dogs and upsetting the Kings 114-113 as 5-point dogs.

The Pistons are as healthy as they have been all season and grossly undervalued.  They are also rested and ready to go after having the last two days off.  And that rest advantage over the Denver Nuggets is a big reason I am backing them tonight.

The Nuggets are the most tired team in the NBA right now. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 149-135 loss to Cleveland last night.  They will also be playing their 5th game in 7 days here, which is as tough a situation as there is in the NBA.

Aaron Gordon is one of the most underrated players in the NBA, and he is out right now for the Nuggets.  All five starters played at least 29 minutes for the Nuggets last night, including 40 from Jamal Murray and 36 from Jokic.  They have one of the worst benches in the NBA so they lack depth.  Bet the Pistons Saturday.

20* BYU/Colorado Alamo Bowl No-Brainer on BYU +4

If both teams had all hands on deck, I'd still like BYU +4.  But while BYU has pretty much all hands on deck for this Alamo Bowl, there are big time questions surrounding Colorado's star players even though they've said they will play.  But how long they play is another story.  

I can't see QB Shedeur Sanders and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter risking their future by playing the entire game.  So it would just be an added bonus if they decide to sit out after starting the game.  WR Jimmy Horn, WR LaJohntay Webster, WR Will Shepard and DT Chidozie Nwankwo are also potential opt-outs.  LB Nikhai Hill-Green signed with Alabama, while CB Preston Hodge and DL Amari McNeil are injured.  RT Philip Houston and RB Isaiah Augustave both missed the finale, and WR Jimmy Horn missed the last couple games.

BYU should only be without one starter due to opt-out, which is S Crew Wakley.  LB Harrison Tarrart missed the finale by is on the bowl depth chart.  It looks like BYU will have their entire defense available except for Wakley.  There have been some shakeups on the O-Line due to injury, but they will be healthier there than they were in the finale.  WR Darius Lassiter will play but will sit out the first half due to an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.

BYU went 10-2 this season with its two losses coming by 5 at Arizona State and by 4 at home to Kansas.  The Cougars easily could have won both games as they had the ball in the final seconds looking to take the lead deep in ASU and KU territory.  Colorado went 9-3 and benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the Big 12.  They caught teams are the right times as well.

There are 5 common opponents between BYU and Colorado this season.  BYU played Arizona and Baylor very similarly to Colorado in winning both games, but BYU was much better against Kansas and Kansas State than Colorado was.  Colorado went 0-2 against those two while getting outscored by 19 points, while BYU went 1-1 against those two and outscored them by 25 points.

I know BYU head coach Kalani Sitake will have the Cougars ready to play and they are happy and motivated to be here.  The Cougars missed out on a bowl game last year for the first time since 2017, and they have only missed two bowl games since 2005.  They will be more than happy making a bowl and going for their 11th win of the season.

I suspect Colorado is more interested in hitting the transfer portal hard with Deion Sanders and company.  There are a lot of distractions with Shedeur Sanders potentially the No. 1 overall pick and having the Heisman Trophy winner in Hunter.  But that just puts and even bigger target on their back, and you can bet BYU is licking its chops at the opportunity to take them down.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet BYU Saturday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati Bengals -3

The Cincinnati Bengals have been in must-win mode the last three weeks and they have come up clutch going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They are now still very much alive to make the playoffs, and they get the exact opponent they need to beat to help their case.

The Bengals now get to host the Denver Broncos, the team they are trailing by two games with two games to go for the final wild card spot.  They would get the head-to-head win over the Broncos to give them the tiebreaker with a win, and the Broncos have the Chiefs on deck next week so it's very possible they lose out.

I think some misleading wins by the Broncos here of late have them overvalued, and the Bengals should be more than 3-point home favorites here.  The Broncos are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall but easily could have lost all four games when you dig into the box scores.

Four games ago the Bengals beat the Raiders 29-19 on the road despite getting outgained 369 to 325 by the Raiders, or by 44 yards.  Three games ago they beat the Browns 41-32 despite getting outgained 552 to 400 by the Browns, or by 152 total yards.  Two games ago they beat the Colts 31-13 despite getting outgained 310 to 193 by the Colts, or by 117 total yards.  The Colts took a TD off the board letting the ball go just short of the goal line in celebration which turned that game.  And last week they were outgained by 25 yards by the Chargers in a 34-27 road loss.

While Bo Nix and the offense have been solid, the Denver defense is the real concern here of late.  They have allowed 402.8 yards per game in their last four games, including 299.8 passing yards per game.  They have been without CB Riley Moss and fellow CB Patrick Surtain II is banged up.

That's not god news for this Denver defense having to go up against Joe Burrow and one of the best passing offenses in the NFL.  The Bengals are averaging 32.6 points per game in their last seven games.  They are averaging 313.8 passing yards per game in their last six games.  Burrow is completing 69% of his passes for 4,229 yards with a 39-to-8 TD/INT ratio this season.  I certainly trust him and his experience over rookie Nix in this game with massive playoff implications.  Bet the Bengals Saturday.

20* Iowa State/Miami Pop-Tarts Bowl No-Brainer on OVER 55.5

The Miami Hurricanes are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-3-1 OVER in all games this season with 56 or more combined points in 10 of their 12 games.  That makes for a 10-2 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 55.5-point total.

They went for 80 combined points with Syracuse, 84 with Duke, 97 with Louisville, 77 with Cal and 72 with Virginia Tech in five of their last eight games.  Iowa State's strength is on offense with Rocco Becht and elite receivers on the outside.  The Cyclones average 30.2 points per game and should be able to match Miami score for score.

The key here is that neither team has many players missing this game.  Even Heisman finalist Cam Ward said he would play for Miami.  WR Xavier Restrepo hasn't decided as of this writing.  I would imagine if Ward goes then everyone will follow suit.  The Hurricanes will likely be without CB Jadais Richard, CB Dyoni HIll and DE Elijah Alston due to injuries, though.

The Cyclones have injuries of their own on defense.  S Malik Verdon is unlikely to play.  LB Caleb Bacon isn't expected back from injury.  DE Tyler Onyedim is in the transfer portal, as are DE Kenard Snyder and DE Trent Jones.  They'll be trying to stop a Miami offense that ranks 1st in scoring at 44.2 points per game, 1st in total offense at 538.2 yards per game and 1st at 7.6 yards per play.

Iowa State and its opponents have combined for at least 59 points in five of its last nine games, including 51 or more in seven of those.  Arizona State, without its best receiver, just put up 45 points and 464 total yards on the Cyclones in the Big 12 Championship Game.  And Iowa State hasn't seen an offense nearly as potent as Miami all season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Warriors/Clippers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 215.5

The Golden State Warriors will be without Stephen Curry (22.5 PPG) tonight.  He means everything to them from an offensive standpoint, and the Warriors are a dead nuts UNDER team without him.

The Clippers are already a dead nuts UNDER team going 19-11 UNDER in all games this season.  They rank 8th in defensive rating and 25th in offensive rating and they play slow.  The Warriors rank 2nd in defensive rating this season.

This will be the 2nd meeting between the Warriors and Clippers this season.  The first was an absolute defensive battle with the Clippers winning 102-99 at home for 201 combined points.  Curry had 26 points in that game to boot.  It will be more of the same without him tonight.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Cavaliers -2

The Cleveland Cavaliers are as healthy as they have been all season.  They remain undervalued despite being 26-4 SU & 21-9 ATS this season.  They have won five consecutive games all by 10 points or more coming into this one.

The Cavaliers are rested and ready to go after having the last three days off.  They come out of this break motivated to beat the Denver Nuggets, a team they already handled 126-114 at home as 3.5-point favorites on December 5th in their first meeting.

Aaron Gordon had 18 points and 7 rebounds for the Nuggets in that first meeting.  Well, the Nuggets won't have Gordon this time around as he is out with calf injury.  Jamal Murray will play but is hampered by an ankle injury.  I give the Nuggets almost no shot of winning this game without Gordon.

The Nuggets played on Christmas Day in a 110-110 loss at Phoenix despite the Suns playing without Devin Booker.  They will now be playing their 4th game in 6 days tonight.  They also have to deal with the distractions that come with Christmas, and I just believe this is a gassed team right now that lacks depth.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Texas Tech/Arkansas Liberty Bowl No-Brainer on Texas Tech +1.5

There is a lot going on with this bowl game between Texas Tech and Arkansas in terms of transfers and opt-outs.  But after going through them all, it clearly looks like Arkansas has more losses and bigger losses that they will have to deal with than Texas Tech does.

Arkansas will be without its top three receivers, its top two running backs, four starting offensive linemen, two starting defensive backs, a starting safety and a starting LB and three defensive linemen.  They are down to just six healthy scholarship offensive linemen.  It really seems like head coach Sam Pittman is almost punting on this bowl game at this point.

It's only fair that I list all the losses for Texas Tech as well.  They will be without starting QB Behren Morton, but I liked what I saw from freshman QB Will Hammond, who saw some action this season and impressed in the 2H against TCU.  Leading receiver Josh Kelly and starting T Ty Buchanan will be out, and the Red Raiders will also have two new coordinators.

But RB Tahj Brooks is listed as RB1 on the bowl depth chart, and it would be huge for them if he does give it a go.  Brooks rushed for 1,505 yards and 17 TD while averaging 5.3 per carry for the Red Raiders this season.

Arkansas will have starting QB Taylor Greene, but Texas Tech has been elite at defending dual-threat QB's this season.  I also like their momentum to finish the season going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their final four games including a 52-15 beat down of West Virginia in the finale.

Simply put, I think Texas Tech wants to be here more than Arkansas does and their personnel losses aren't nearly as big as the losses for the Razorbacks.  Head coach Joey McGuire clearly goes 'all in' for bowl games as he is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS at Texas Tech with a 42-25 win over Ole Miss as 3-point dogs in 2022 and a 34-14 win over Cal as 3-point favorites last year.  Bet Texas Tech Friday.

20* Georgia Tech/Vanderbilt Birmingham Bowl No-Brainer on UNDER 51.5

This game will be played at a snail's pace.  Vanderbilt ranks 130th out of 134 teams in tempo snapping the ball every 30.0 seconds.  Georgia Tech ranks 84th snapping the ball every 27.0 seconds.  There will be fewer possessions in this game than most, thus points will be very hard to come by.

The forecast is also good for the UNDER.  There are expected to be 10-15 MPH winds with a greater than 70% chance of precipitation at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, AL Saturday.

Both defenses have been pretty solid and are a big reason these teams had such successful seasons.  Vanderbilt allows 23.1 points per game while Georgia Tech allows 24.8 points per game.  While the Yellow Jackets have a pretty good offense, the Commodores do not, ranking 123rd in the country in total offense at 319.4 yards per game and 103rd at 5.3 yards per play.

But Georgia Tech's offense is going to be missing several key players that will hamper them on that side of the ball.  They will be without leading receiver Eric Singleton, who has 56 receptions for 754 yards and 3 TD on the season.  They will also be without LT Corey Robinson and backup LT Jordan Brown.  

The Commodores have very few opt-outs or transfers.  They will only possibly be missing three guys, but two of them are on offense in OT Gunnar Hansen and TE Eli Stowers, who leads the team with 45 receptions for 583 yards and 4 TD.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Oklahoma/Navy Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Navy +3

Navy QB Blake Horvath played the 2nd half of the season injured.  He finally got healthy for their last game and it has made all the difference for the Midshipmen, who have one of the most explosive offenses in school history this season.

Navy took on a East Carolina team that has won four in a row and in their second-to-last game and handled them 34-20.  The Midshipmen outgained the Pirates 458 to 350, or by 108 total yards. Horvath returned against Army in their finale to lead them to the Commander-in-Chief Trophy.  

The Midshipmen blasted the Black Knights 31-13 while outgaining them 378 to 178 for the game, or by 200 total yards.  Horvath rushed for 204 yards and 2 TD on 25 carries while also throwing for 107 yards and 2 TD in one of his best games of the season to show he is fully healthy heading into the bowl game.  They handed Army just their 2nd loss of the season.

Now the Midshipmen have their sights set on the Oklahoma Sooners in the Armed Forces Bowl, which will be a big home-field advantage for them in Fort Worth.  Oklahoma clearly isn't taking this game seriously with all their transfers and opt-outs, and the wrong team is favored here.

The Sooners will be without starting QB Jackson Arnold, five of their best receivers, their starting TE, two starting CB's and RB Jovantae Barnes.  They will also be without their two best defenders in LB Danny Stutsman and S Billy Bowman.  If WR Deion Burks cannot go, the Sooners' options at receiver will be eight freshmen for backup QB Michael Hawkins, who is more of a runner than a thrower.

This Oklahoma offense is absolutely dreadful and will be in worse shape than they have been all season heading into this bowl game.  The Sooners rank 120th in total offense at 322.8 yards per game, 126th at 4.8 yards per play and 94th in scoring at 24.3 points per game.  Nothing will come easy for them against Navy, which just held the best rushing team in the country in Army to 113 yards on 39 attempts.  Bet Navy Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Blazers OVER 227

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team when healthy, which is the case right now.  The OVER is 7-1 in Jazz last eight games overall with 237 or more combined points in seven of those eight games.  The only game that went under was against the Charlotte Hornets, who are a dead nuts under team.

This total of 227 is too low for a game involving the Jazz right now.  That's especially the case considering the opponent in the Portland Trail Blazers, who are as healthy as they have been all season and we are seeing higher scoring games with them recently as a result.

The Blazers and their opponents have combined for at least 225 points in four of their last five games, including 240 with Dallas, 250 with Denver and 234 with San Antonio.  They also recently lost 141-99 to the Jazz in a game that saw 240 combined points.

The Jazz and Blazers have now combined for at least 226 points in eight of their last nine meetings, including 227 or more in seven of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Arkansas State/Bowling Green Ventures Bowl Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

Arkansas State is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Red Wolves rank 19th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds on offense.  They have one of the worst defenses in the country to go along with a decent offense.

The Red Wolves rank 66th in total offense at 385.9 yards per game.  They have solid balance averaging 159 rushing yards per game and 227 passing.  Their defense is dreadful, ranking 129th in the country allowing 461.6 yards per game and 131st allowing 6.9 yards per play.  They have almost no opt outs but will be without starting CB Dontay Joyder and DE Jayden Jones.

Bowling Green has minimal opt-outs.  Star TE Harold Fannin Jr. is going to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft but decided to play.  That's huge for their offense as Fannin is not only the best TE in the country, but one of the best receivers overall.  He has 100 receptions for 1,342 yards and 9 TD this season.  He needs 11 receiving yards and 12 receptions to break the all-time records for tight ends, and I think QB Connor Bazelak will force feed him against this awful Arkansas State defense.

We've seen what this Bowling Green offense is capable of scoring at least 27 points in eight of its 12 games this season.  That includes 27 points against Penn State and 20 against Texas A&M, which is very impressive against those two defenses.  I think the Falcons can do the heavy lifting here, and I expect Arkansas State to have enough success on offense to get this thing up and OVER this short total of 50. Bet the OVER in the Ventures Bowl Thursday.

15* Arkansas State/Bowling Green Ventures Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Bowling Green -7

Bowling Green has minimal opt-outs.  Star TE Harold Fannin Jr. is going to be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft but decided to play.  That's huge for their offense as Fannin is not only the best TE in the country, but one of the best receivers overall.  He has 100 receptions for 1,342 yards and 9 TD this season.  He needs 11 receiving yards and 12 receptions to break the all-time records for tight ends, and I think QB Connor Bazelak will force feed him against this awful Arkansas State defense.

We've seen what this Bowling Green offense is capable of scoring at least 27 points in eight of its 12 games this season.  That includes 27 points against Penn State and 20 against Texas A&M, which is very impressive against those two defenses.  They nearly upset both of those teams losing by 7 to Penn State and by 6 to Texas A&M both on the road.

Arkansas State is one of the most fraudulent bowl teams I've ever seen.  The Red Wolves average 385.9 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play on offense, while allowing 461.6 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on defense.  They are getting outgained by 76 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play on the season, which are numbers that you would see from a 3-9 or 4-8 team rather than one that is 7-5 like the Red Wolves.

We've seen Arkansas State get waxed when they have stepped up in class this season.  They lost 52-7 to Iowa State, 41-9 to Texas State and 55-19 to Louisiana.  I think they get waxed one last time here against a motivated Bowling Green team that will have all hands on deck.  Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones has stated he's more focused on next season than this bowl game with many of his comments leading up to it.  Bet Bowling Green in the Ventures Bowl Thursday.

20* Seahawks/Bears NFC No-Brainer on Seattle -3

With their 27-24 loss to the Vikings last week, the Seahawks now trail the Rams by one game for the division lead with two games to go.  They cannot afford a loss to the Bears on Thursday, otherwise the Rams would clinch the division with a win over the Cardinals on Saturday, and the Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention so may not be all that motivated.

So we are going to get a max effort from the Seahawks on Thursday, and it should be enough to beat the hapless Bears by more than a field goal.  I think we are getting the Seahawks at a discount here due to coming off consecutive losses, but those losses came to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Packers and Vikings. 

They had gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their previous four games, including three of those on the road with upset wins at San Francisco, at the Jets and at Arizona.  They also outgained the Vikings 361 to 298 and deserved to win that game last week, so that misleading final certainly is playing into this line this week as well.  

Geno Smith proved he was healthy after getting injured against the Packers, throwing for 314 yards and 3 TD with 2 INT against the Vikings.  And the Seahawks are remarkably healthy everywhere with the only question being RB Kenneth Walker, but they have actually almost been better with backup RB Zach Charbonnet as he's great running and catching the ball out of the backfield.

This Seattle defense is thriving since getting healthy coming out of their bye week.  They are allowing 19.8 points per game and 309.3 yards per game in their six games since the bye, and it has come against five potent offenses and the Jets, who are improved here down the stretch.

Now the Seahawks will feast on Caleb Williams and one of the worst, most banged up offensive lines in the NFL.  Two more starting offensive linemen were knocked out of their 34-17 home loss to the Lions last week in LT Braxton Jones and LG Teven Jenkins.  Jones is for sure out, and Jenkins probably won't be recoverd on a short week.  They were already without C Ryan Bates and backup C Doug Kramer Jr.  Williams has already been sacked a league-high 60 times, and his offensive line consistently gets called for holding penalties to boot.

The Bears haven't recovered since losing on a hail mary to the Washington Commanders on October 27th.  The Bears are now 0-9 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Their last three losses haven't even been close as they have lost those three games by a combined 60 points, or by an average of 20.0 points per game.  This team is on 'quit alert'.

While Williams and the offense have been a big problem all season, the defense has been even more of an issue since firing head coach Matt Eberflus.  While he wasn't a great head coach, he was a tremendous defensive coordinator.  The defense has fallen off a cliff allowing 38 points and 452 total yards to the 49ers, 30 points and 329 total yards to the Vikings and 34 points and 475 total yards to the Lions in their last three games without him.  Geno Smith and company should hang another big number on this soft defense.  Bet the Seahawks Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hornets/Wizards OVER 226.5

The Hornets are a pretty easy team to figure out.  They are an OVER team with La'Melo Ball (30 PPG, 7.5 APG) healthy and an UNDER team without him.  He is their most important player by far as he makes everyone's job easier offensively. Ball is healthy right now.

The OVER is 7-3 in the last 10 games that Ball has played.  There have been 229 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  They did go under with the Rockets and 215 combined points last time out, but that was very fluky as they shot 42% as a team and the Rockets only shot 43%.

Now the Hornets take on a dead nuts OVER team in the Washington Wizards tonight.  The Wizards rank 4th in pace and 29th in defensive rating.  They play fast and they play zero defense.

The Hornets and Wizards have combined for 231 or more points in four of their last five meetings, including 237, 241 and 248 in three of those.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Rutgers/K-State Rate Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Rutgers +7

Greg Schiano is one of the best bowl coaches in college football.  He has led Rutgers to a 6-2 record in bowl games in his coaching career.  I'm certainly liking taking the +7 with the Scarlet Knights here against the Kansas State Wildcats in the Rate Bowl given Schiano's track record.

I also like the fact that Rutgers hardly has any opt-outs or transfers.  Several players who were expected to opt out have said they are going to play in the bowl game.  The only big loss is their defensive coordinator, but they may be better off with Schiano calling the defensive plays anyways.

Rutgers finished strong going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its final four games and nearly went 4-0 blowing a lead in the final seconds to Illinois.  They upset Minnesota 26-19 as 6.5-point home dogs, upset Maryland as 3.5-point road dogs and upset Michigan State 41-14 as 1.5-point road dogs.

Kansas State has some big-time opt-outs and transfers.  Both RB DJ Giddens and CB Jacob Parrish have declared for the NFL Draft and will not play.  The loss of Giddens is a huge blow considering he has rushed for 1,343 yards and 7 TD while averaging 6.6 per carry.  He is almost their entire offense.  They will also be without RT Carver Willis and WR Keagan Johnson, who has 29 receptions for 359 yards and is their second-leading receiver just ahead of Giddens, who has 21 receptions for 258 yards.

Kansas State QB Avery Johnson has struggled with accuracy and turnovers.  He completes just 59.1% of his passes with a 22-to-9 TD/INT ratio.  He is a threat to run, and I think that Schiano will come up with the proper game plan to spy him and not allow him to run much.  The Wildcats have been overvalued all season going just 4-8 ATS in their 12 games, and I think they are being overvalued again here as a 7-point favorite against a Rutgers team that wants to be here.  The Wildcats have questionable motivation especially with all the opt-outs.  Bet Rutgers in the Rate Bowl Thursday.

15* Pitt/Toledo Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on OVER 49.5

From a tempo standpoint alone this total is too low.  Then you throw in the fact that it will be played in perfect conditions inside the dome at Ford Field and it's definitely too low.  There is tremendous value on the OVER 49.5 between Pittsburgh and Toledo in the GameAbove Sports Bowl Thursday.

Pittsburgh ranks 2nd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.4 seconds only trailing South Florida in that category.  The Panthers will be up against a Toledo team that ranks 13th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds.  There are going to be a ton of possessions in this game, which means more opportunities for points.

The up-tempo offense has paid dividends for the Panthers who are scoring 31.8 points per game with their best offense of the Pat Narduzzi era.  But it has also led to some of the worst defensive numbers of the Narduzzi era, giving up 26.8 points per game this season.  Toledo likes to throw a lot of deep balls, and the Panthers' biggest weakness was against the deep ball this season.

Both teams have more important opt outs on defense than on offense.  Toledo will have its starting QB, and there's a chance Pitt will have its starting QB with Eli Holstein sitting the last few games due to injury, but he may return.  RB Desmond Reid will return after missing the finale with an injury.  Narduzzi said they should be healthier for their bowl game than they were in the regular season finale and expects at least 90% of his seniors to suit up.  He sounded optimistic about Holstein's chances.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Nuggets/Suns ABC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 232.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  The Nuggets and Suns just squared off on Monday in Denver with the Nuggets winning 117-90 for just 207 combined points.  They have set the total at 232.5 for the rematch here two days later, and it's simply too high.

This has been a low-scoring series to say the least.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 207, 201, 204, 230, 225 and 220 combined points at the end of regulation.  So they have combined for 230 or fewer points at the end of regulation in six consecutive meetings, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 232.5-point total.  The last three of 207, 201, and 204 have been extremely low-scoring.

Injuries to both teams are another reason to like the UNDER.  The Suns are without Devin Booker and Grayson Allen, and both are missed much more on the offensive end than the defensive end.  Jamal Murray is questionable to play for the Nuggets and offers a lot more on the offensive end than the defensive end as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* Lakers/Warriors ABC No-Brainer on OVER 221

When the Lakers and Warriors get together a shootout is usually the end result.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 223 or more combined points in all six meetings, which makes for a 6-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 221-point total.

The last four meetings have been especially high scoring with 254, 249, 238 and 236 combined points at the end of regulation.  LeBron and AD are both questionable, but both played in their last game and combined for 65 points in a 117-114 loss to the Pistons.  I expect both to play in this game since it's Christmas Day on National TV.

The Warriors are fully healthy with the exception of Gary Payton II, who is questionable. But not having him on the floor would make them even more of an OVER team because he is their best perimeter defender.  Getting Dennis Schroeder in a trade has opened up their offense and given Steve Kerr more options around Steph Curry.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Ravens/Texans XMas Day No-Brainer on Baltimore -3

The Baltimore Ravens beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 34-17 on Saturday to climb into a tie for first place in the division with the Steelers.  They are max motivated right now to win the division and get a home game in the first round of the playoffs.  I expect them to show up in a big way on Christmas Day.

The Houston Texans have already clinched their division and have nothing to play for the rest of the way.  They gave an 'all in' effort to try and beat the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday but came up short in a 27-19 road loss to the defending champs.  I don't see them being motivated at all in Week 17 or Week 18.

So the Ravens are the better, more motivated team. They'll be on the road not having to deal with Christmas distractions back home, and they'll be treating it like a business trip.  I don't see the Texans being motivated at all, and they will be dealing with the distractions that come with Christmas at home.

The Ravens rank 1st in total offense at 423.7 yards per game and 1st at 7.0 yards per play.  The Texans have been broken on offense all season, ranking 16th at 323.3 yards per game and 19th at 5.4 yards per play.  I don't think the Texans have the firepower to keep up with the Ravens in a shootout.

On paper, this was supposed to be an elite Houston offense coming into the season.  But it wasn't even that great when everyone was healthy.  Now injuries have decimated them.  They lost two of their top three receivers in Stephon Diggs and Tank Dell, who suffered a season-ending injury against the Chiefs last week, and they were terrible after he went out.

Of course, it doesn't help that CJ Stroud is playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the game.  Now G Shaq Mason suffered an injury against the Chiefs and is questionable this week.  WR John Metchie III who would take Dell's place is also out.  S Jimmie Ward is one of the leaders of the defense and he got hurt against the Chiefs and is questionable.  They are already without DT Fatukasi and LB Al-Shaaier, while LB Harris and DE Anderson are questionable.

The Ravens are remarkably healthy on defense.  RB Hill and WR Flowers both got banged up last week, but I expect at least Flowers to go, and their offense was fine even after losing Hill to a concussion.  There's a chance WR Agholor could return this week, and WR Bateman played last week and should be good to go again this week.  We'll back the better, healthier, more motivated team on Christmas Day.  Bet the Ravens Wednesday.