15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals -1.5 (-120)

The Kansas City Royals are looking to get back on track in this series with the lowly Houston Astros. They had lost four straight after a Game 1 loss, but they bounced back with a 7-3 victory last night.

I like the Royals' chances of a two-plus run triumph once again tonight given the massive edge they have on the mound. James Shields looks to continue his dominance while outdueling Jordan Lyles.

Shields has posted a 2.45 ERA and a 0.955 WHIP through nine starts this season, including a 1.50 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in his last three. Lyles has gone 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA and 1.737 WHIP in four starts, including 1-1 with an 8.36 ERA and 1.929 WHIP in three home starts.

Houston is 25-86 (-38.9 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by 2.4 runs/game in this spot. Lyles is 9-32 (-17.5 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 3 seasons. He is losing by 2.5 runs/game in this spot. Bet the Royals on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Cubs +125

The Chicago Cubs get the nod Wednesday at an excellent price against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Francisco Liriano is getting way too much respect here, while Jeff Samardzija is once again being undervalued.

I have no doubt that Samardzija is the better starter in this one folks. Chicago's ace has been solid this season, posting a 3.49 ERA and 1.200 WHIP with 64 strikeouts over 56 2/3 innings.

Sure, Liriano has pitched well, but he has only made two starts this season. His 1.64 ERA through those two starts is a little misleading because he was able to get out of trouble. He put plenty of runners on base with his 1.545 WHIP, allowing 17 base runners over 11 innings.

Samardzija owns the Pirates, going 3-0 with a 0.72 ERA and 0.400 WHIP in three starts having never lost. He has allowed just two earned runs and 10 base runners over 25 innings while striking out 23. Roll with the Cubs Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (+119)

Justin Verlander just lost to Ubaldo Jimenez and the Cleveland Indians on May 11th at home by a final of 6-7. I look for Verlander to come back extra motivated tonight to get revenge on Jimenez and company.

Verlander has gone 4-4 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.296 WHIP through nine starts this season. Jimenez has gone 3-2 with a 5.31 ERA in eight starts, including 1-2 with a 9.72 ERA in four home starts. Jimenez is also 5-7 with a 5.12 ERA in 14 career starts against Detroit.

Detroit is 45-28 against the run line (+20.9 Units) after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. I look for Verlander to match Max Scherzer's gem last night en route to a 5-1 Detroit victory. Take the Tigers on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Louis Cardinals -137

After losing Game 1 of this series to San Diego 4-2, I look for the St. Louis Cardinals to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 behind ace Adam Wainwright. The Cardinals have a big edge on the mound in this one.

Wainwright is 5-3 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.005 WHIP through nine starts this season, and 3-2 with a 0.97 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in five career starts against San Diego. Edinson Volquez is 3-4 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in nine starts this year, and 2-4 with a 5.32 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in nine career starts against St. Louis.

St. Louis has been remarkable at bouncing back from a loss this season. It has only gone on a losing streak twice, and those were two and three games skids. The Cardinals are 13-3 following a loss in 2013, and 20-6 in their last 26 games following a loss since last year.

The Cardinals are 5-0 in Wainwright's last 5 starts as a road favorite. St. Louis is 7-1 in its last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Cardinals are 11-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season. Roll with St. Louis Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Spurs Game 2 ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +5.5

Almost everything that could go right for San Antonio in Game 1 of this series did. The Spurs shot 52.6% from the field, including 14-of-29 (48.3%) from 3-point range.

I look for Memphis to make the proper adjustments, which will certainly help cool off the Spurs as they clearly won't shoot nearly that well again. This has been a resilient Grizzlies' team all year, and I fully expect them to give San Antonio all it can handle in Game 2.

Memphis is still a blistering 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall. San Antonio should not be a bigger favorite than it was in Game 1, which is another reason why I believe there is a lot of value in backing the Grizzlies here in Game 2. The public is overreacting from the Spurs' blowout win in Game 1.

The Grizzlies are 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Lionel Hollins is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more as the coach of Memphis. Bet the Grizzlies Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -127

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing excellent value as a small road favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. Given the edge they have on the mound, they should be a much heavier favorite in this one.

There have been some rumors surrounding the possible firing of manager Don Mattingly. He didn't necessarily call anyone out, but he did say that he needed Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke to be dominant, and for Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford to produce more in the meat of their line-up.

Los Angeles responded well last night with a 3-1 victory over Milwaukee in Game 1 behind a complete game from Kershaw, and a couple of homers from Kemp and Ethier. Now, I fully expect a dominant outing from Zach Greinke tonight.

Greinke has gone 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA and 0.780 WHIP through three starts this season. He'll be up against Hiram Burgos, who is 1-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.500 WHIP through five starts this year. The Brewers are just 3-15 in May games this season.

Greinke is 26-8 (+16.2 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Milwaukee is 4-16 (-11.6 Units) against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. Greinke is 41-14 (+21.0 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Take the Dodgers Tuesday.

15* MLB Mound Mismatch PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -109

Arizona starter Patrick Corbin has been one of the most underrated starters in the league all season. He continues to get overlooked by oddsmakers tonight as only a small favorite over the washed up Jon Garland and the Colorado Rockies.

Corbin has gone 6-0 with a 1.52 ERA and 1.069 WHIP over eight starts in 2013, and the Diamondbacks are a perfect 8-0 in those eight contests. The left-hander is also 3-0 with a 0.89 ERA and 1.082 WHIP over his last three starts.

Jon Garland is far past his prime. The veteran right-hander is 3-4 with a 4.69 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in his last three.

Corbin is 1-0 with a 1.98 ERA in his last two starts against Arizona, allowing three earned runs over 13 2/3 innings of work. Garland is 3-4 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.471 WHIP in nine career starts against Arizona. He allowed four runs, three earned, and 10 base runners over 6 innings in a 2-4 loss at Arizona on April 28th.

Corbin is 9-0 (+9.4 Units) against the money line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. The Diamondbacks are 11-1 in Corbin's last 12 starts overall. Take Arizona Monday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -132

The Los Angeles Dodgers should be a much heavier favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers tonight with ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound. They have a huge edge on the rubber over Yovani Gallardo and the Brewers in this one.

Kershaw has gone 4-2 with a 1.40 ERA and 0.871 WHIP through nine starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA and 0.794 WHIP in his last three. The former Cy Young winning has pitched eight shutout innings in two of his last three starts against Milwaukee.

Yovani Gallardo has completely lost it this season. That's probably a big reason why he got a DWI earlier this year. Gallardo has gone 3-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.462 WHIP through nine starts in 2013. He is also 1-3 with a 6.21 ERA and 1.487 WHIP in six career starts against Los Angeles.

Kershaw is 16-2 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. The Brewers are 0-8 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter. Milwaukee is 0-6 in its last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. These three trends combine for a 30-2 system backing Los Angeles. Bet the Dodgers Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Twins +144

The Atlanta Braves have no business being this heavily favored over the Minnesota Twins Monday. The Twins actually have the edge on the mound in this one, yet they are a big road underdog here.

Kevin Correia has been going under the radar all season. The right-hander has gone 4-3 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.230 WHIP through eight starts in 2013. Correia is 3-2 with a 3.47 ERA in seven career starts against Atlanta as well.

Julio Teheran had a solid spring training for Atlanta, but he hasn't been able to convert that success into the regular season. Teheran is 2-1 with a 4.57 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in seven starts this year, including 0-0 with a 6.10 ERA and 1.936 WHIP over two home starts.

Correia is a very profitable 36-36 (+17.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher since 1997. The Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games, and 2-7 in their last 9 interleague home games. Roll with the Twins Monday.

20* Spurs/Grizzlies Game 1 No-Brainer on Memphis +4.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are a perfect 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This has been the most underrated team in the league all season, and it's still the case in the playoffs.

I would normally have a longer analysis than this, but there's just no need to beat around the bush. Memphis is going to win this Game 1 outright, but I'm just taking the points for some insurance. Bet the Grizzlies Sunday.

15* NL Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +142

The New York Mets are showing their best value of the season Sunday. The Chicago Cubs shouldn't be this heavily favored against anyone, even the Mets.

Dillon Gee is 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in three career starts against the Cubs. In his last start against Chicago, Gee gave up one earned run over eight innings of a 3-1 victory.

Travis Wood is 6-17 (-12.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Chicago is 40-76 (-32.7 Units) against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Cubs Sunday.

15* AL Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners -109

Rarely will you ever get Felix Hernandez at this kind of price. I'll gladly take advantage Sunday as he's only a small favorite over the Cleveland Indians.

This is one of the best starters in the league. Year in and year out, Hernandez goes under the radar because he pitches in Seattle. Hernandez is 5-2 with a 1.53 ERA in nine starts this season, including 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA on the road.

Seattle is 9-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line with double revenge - 2 straight losses against opponent this season. After losing the first two games of this series, I look for the Mariners to bounce back in Game 3. Roll with the Mariners Sunday.

20* Knicks/Pacers Game 6 ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -5

The Indiana Pacers will close out the New York Knicks in Game 6 in blowout fashion. Indiana hasn't lost at home the entire playoffs, and it's not about to start losing today.

This has been one of the best home teams all season, especially in the playoffs. The Pacers are 35-11 SU & 27-19 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by 8.6 points/game.

New York is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* NL Mound Mismatch PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Dodgers +150

The Los Angeles Dodgers should never be this big of an underdog given the talent they have on their team. They are showing arguably their best value of the season tonight as a big road underdog to the Atlanta Braves.

Year in and year out, Chris Capuano is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The left-hander is 5-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.010 WHIP in 10 career starts against Atlanta.

The Dodgers are 19-4 (+16.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Capuano is a very profitable 21-14 (+15.4 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 since 1997. Roll with the Dodgers Saturday.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers +150

Great value here with the Milwaukee Brewers as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals don't have the kind of edge on the mound that this line would indicate.

Marco Estrada has been dominant away from hitter-friendly Milwaukee. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA and 0.949 WHIP through four road starts in 2013.

The Brewers are 10-1 in Estrada's last 11 starts vs. National League Central opponents. Milwaukee is 6-1 in Estrada's last 7 starts during game 2 of a series. The Brewers are 4-1 in Estrada's last 5 starts as an underdog. Take the Brewers Saturday.

20* MLB Mound Mismatch GAME OF THE MONTH on Kansas City Royals -113

The Kansas City Royals have a massive edge on the mound over the Oakland A's tonight. They should be a much heavier favorite tonight because of it, and I'll gladly take advantage.

James Shields has proven to be the ace that the Royals hoped for when they signed him this offseason. The right-hander is 2-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.783 WHIP in his last three.

Jarrod Parker has been atrocious this season for Oakland. The right-hander is 2-5 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.845 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-3 with a 9.61 ERA and 1.984 WHIP in four home starts.

Shield is 5-3 with a 4.08 WHIP in 12 career starts against Oakland. That includes a complete game shutout in his last start against the A's. Parker is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA in one career start against Kansas City.

The A's are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. American League Central opponents. Oakland is 0-5 in Parker's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The A's are 0-4 in Parker's last 4 starts as a home underdog. These three trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing Kansas City. Bet the Royals Friday.

15* MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington Nationals -130

The Washington Nationals should be a much heavier favorite over the San Diego Padres tonight. They have a big edge on the mound with Gio Gonzalez over Burch Smith in this one.

Gonzalez hasn't been as dominant as he was last season, but he's still 3-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.200 WHIP with 47 strikeouts over 45 innings. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one career start against San Diego, pitching six shutout innings of a 3-1 victory.

Rookie Burch Smith will get his second turn in the rotation with Clayton Richard on the disabled list. It didn't go well in Smith's major league debut as he allowed six runs and seven base runners before getting pulled after just one inning of work in an 8-7 loss to Tampa Bay.

Gonzalez is 13-2 (+10.4 Units) against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Nationals are 17-5 in Gonzalez's last 22 road starts. The Nationals are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in San Diego. Take Washington Friday.

15* MLB Friday Total ANNIHILATOR on Giants/Rockies UNDER 9.5

The books have set the bar way too high tonight in this NL West battle between San Francisco and Colorado. This is an overreaction from yesterday's 8-6 win by the Giants.

The two starters getting the ball tonight have been absolutely dominant. Madison Bumgarner is 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.932 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA and 0.646 WHIP in three road starts. Jorge De La Rosa is 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in eight starts, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in two home starts.

Both starters have been dominant against their opposition as well. Bumgarner is 6-3 with a 2.58 ERA in 12 career starts against Colorado with the UNDER going 7-4-1 in those contests. De La Rosa is 7-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 13 career starts against San Francisco with the UNDER going 8-5 in those games.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Bumgarner's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 5-0 in Bumgarner's last 5 starts vs. National League West. The UNDER is 6-1 in De La Rosa's last 7 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. These three trends combine for a 16-1 system backing the UNDER tonight. Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Dodgers +125

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing some of their best value of the season as a road underdog to the Atlanta Braves. They come in playing their best baseball of the season having won four of their last five games overall.

Hyun-Jin Ryu doesn't get the respect he deserves from oddsmakers because he's new to the league this year. The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.212 WHIP with 51 strikeouts in 50 1/3 innings in 2013.

The Braves have lost five of their last six coming in. Paul Maholm is getting way too much respect from the books in the early going despite being just 4-4 with a 3.94 ERA on the season.

Maholm gave up six earned runs and 11 base runners over 4 1/3 innings last time out in a 1-10 loss to San Francisco. The left-hander is 1-5 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.527 WHIP in nine career starts against Los Angeles.

The Dodgers are 19-3 (+17.3 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 0-7 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Bet the Dodgers Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -115

Rarely will you get the opportunity to back Cliff Lee as this small of a home favorite against anyone. I'll take advantage tonight and back the veteran left-hander against the Cincinnati Reds Friday night.

Lee continues to prove that he's one of the best starters in the game. The former Cy Young winner is 4-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.076 WHIP through eight starts this season. He is coming off an awesome start at Arizona in which he pitched seven shutout innings of a 3-1 Phillies' victory.

Lee is 6-2 with a 3.91 ERA in 12 career starts against Cincinnati. He has been dominant in his last three starts against the Reds, going 1-0 with a 1.61 ERA while allowing just four earned runs in 22 1/3 innings.

The Reds are 2-7 in their last 9 games as a road underdog. Cincinnati is 1-4 in its last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Phillies are 38-18 in their last 56 meetings with the Reds, including 19-7 in their last 26 home meetings. Roll with the Phillies Friday.

15* MLB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington Nationals -137

The Washington Nationals should be a much heavier favorite Thursday over the San Diego Padres giving the massive edge they have on the mound. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price tonight.

Washington comes in highly motivated for a victory after losing four of its last five overall. Ace Stephen Strasburg is just the guy to get them back on track. The flame-throwing right-hander has posted a 3.10 ERA and 1.176 WHIP through eight starts in 2013.

Edinson Volquez is no match for Strasburg. The right-hander is 3-3 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.557 WHIP through eight starts this year. Volquez is also 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.370 WHIP in three career starts against Washington.

The Nationals are 15-5 in Strasburg's last 20 starts as a road favorite. Washington is 20-7 in its last 27 games as a road favorite. The Padres are 0-4 in Volquez's last 4 starts vs. National League East opponents. The Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings in San Diego. Take Washington Thursday.

20* Pacers/Knicks TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Indiana +5

I look for the Indiana Pacers to take a page out of the Memphis and Miami's books tonight and close this series out in Game 5. That's especially the case with Miami on deck as they want to be as rested as possible going into that series.

New York had its chance to get back in this series in Game 4, but fell flat on its faces with yet another double-digit road loss to the Pacers. The Knicks feel like they're already beaten, and I hardly expect them to show up tonight as a result.

This play falls into a system that is 72-33 (68.6%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (NEW YORK) - revenging a road loss vs opponent against opponent off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more.

New York is 0-7 ATS revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points this season. It is losing in this spot 95.3 to 106.3, or by an average of 11.0 points/game. Bet the Pacers Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (+126)

After getting embarrassed 12-2 by the Seattle Mariners last night, I look for the New York Yankees to bounce back with a blowout victory of their own in Game 3 of this series Thursday. With the huge edge they have on the mound, the Yankees won't have a problem winning by two-plus runs tonight.

The ageless Andy Pettite continues to get it done in the big leagues. The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.276 WHIP through seven starts in 2013.

New York hitters are licking their chops at the opportunity to face Aaron Harang tonight. The right-hander is 1-4 with a 7.30 ERA through five starts this season, including 0-2 with an 8.43 ERA in two road starts.

Pettite is 68-22 (+30.5 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -200 since 1997. His teams are winning 6.2 to 3.8 in this spot, or by an average of 2.4 runs/game. Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -140

The Los Angeles Dodgers welcome back Zach Greinke from a broken collarbone tonight. It's perfect timing as the Dodgers are starting to finally play well having won three of their last four coming in.

Greinke was off to a hot start before the injury, going 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.706 WHIP in two starts. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in two career starts against Washington.

Greinke went 11-0 with a 3.13 ERA in 15 home starts in 2011, 8-2 with a 2.98 ERA in 15 home starts in 2012, and he's 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA in one home starts in 2013. He clearly is most comfortable when pitching at home over the last few seasons going a combined 20-2. He'll get a warm welcome from Los Angeles fans tonight. Roll with the Dodgers Wednesday.

15* Red Sox/Rays ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Tampa Bay -120

The Tampa Bay Rays get the nod Wednesday as a small home favorite with 2012 AL Cy Young winner David Price on the mound. Tampa Bay comes in playing its best baseball of the season having won six in a row while scoring at least 4 runs in each victory.

Price got off to a slow start this season, but he's been solid of late. The left-hander is 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA in his last three starts while striking out 22 batters over 21 2/3 innings. Price is 8-4 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.202 WHIP in 16 career starts against Boston.

Jon Lester is off to a fast start this season for the Red Sox, but he's overvalued as a result. He's also coming off a complete game shutout, and it's always hard to come back and pitch well after such a solid performance. Lester is 10-10 with a 4.21 ERA in 25 career starts against Tampa Bay.

The Red Sox are 4-22 in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Boston is 7-20 in Lester's last 27 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Tampa Bay is 21-7 in its last 28 home games. Take the Rays Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -118

Rarely will you get the New York Yankees as this small of a home favorite all season. I'll gladly take advantage tonight and back the home team at an excellent price against the lowly Seattle Mariners.

Phil Hughes has pitched well this season, going 1-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.292 WHIP in four home starts, and 2-0 with a 3.66 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in his last three starts overall. Hughes is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA in six career starts against Seattle.

In his last two starts against Seattle, Hughes is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA while allowing just 2 earned runs in 13 2/3 innings. Hisashi Iwakuma has pitched well this year, but he's 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in two career starts against New York, allowing 18 base runners and two homers over 10 innings.

The Yankees are 7-0 (+8.3 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season. New York is 41-15 in Hughes' last 56 home starts. The Yankees are 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 starts overall. Bet New York Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers +113

The Milwaukee Brewers should not be an underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates given the massive edge they have on the mound tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price.

Yovani Gallardo is absolutely licking his chops at the opportunity to face Pittsburgh again. Gallardo is 10-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Pirates. The Brewers are 14-1 in those contests.

Wandy Rodriquez has not fared well against Milwaukee, going 8-10 with a 4.17 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in 24 career starts. He faced the Brewers once already this season, allowing 7 earned runs and three homers over 3 2/3 innings of a 4-10 loss to Gallardo and company.

Gallardo is 36-11 (+21.0 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997. Milwaukee is 60-19 in its last 79 meetings with Pittsburgh. Take the Brewers Wednesday.

25* NBA Second Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls +14.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing their best value of the entire playoffs tonight as a massive 14.5-point underdog to the Miami Heat in Game 5. They have already been counted out in this series, and this is when they are at their best.

Chicago was up 3-1 on the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, and they would lose the next two games, setting up a Game 7. Almost everyone gave them no chance after blowing that 3-1 lead, but I took them on the money line in Game 7, and they won outright to advance to face Miami.

The Bulls simply will not quit. They take after head coach Tom Thibodeau, who refuses to let his team believe that they are down and out. I look for Chicago to take this game right down to the wire with a chance to win in the 4th quarter.

Thibodeau is 10-1 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent as the coach of Chicago. His teams are bouncing back to win 92.4 to 85.5, or by an average of 6.9 points/game in this spot.

Miami is 0-7 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive road wins this season. The Heat are 0-9 ATS in home games after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. These three trends combine for a 26-1 system backing Chicago. Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* AL Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Texas Rangers -108

The Texas Rangers should be a much heavier favorite Tuesday over the Oakland A's. After losing Game 1 of this series, I look for them to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 given the massive edge they have on the mound.

Derek Holland is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The left-hander is 3-2 with a 2.54 ERA and 1.007 WHIP through seven starts this season. Holland is 4-1 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in eight career starts against Oakland.

Bartolo Colon is well past his prime. He got off to a decent start for Oakland, but has come back down to reality of late. Colon is 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 14 earned runs over 15 1/3 innings.

This play falls into a system that is 74-39 (65.5%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings against opponent with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.50 over his last 3 starts.

Texas is 32-8 (+21.1 Units) against the money line revenging a loss where the team scored 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons. Colon is 0-11 (-13.9 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 3 seasons. His teams are losing by 3.0 runs/game in this spot. Roll with the Rangers Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday GAME OF THE NIGHT on New York Mets +150

The New York Mets are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at a great price in Game 2 of this series tonight.

St. Louis starter John Gast will be making his major league debut tonight, and he's clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers. While Dillon Gee is off to a slow start for New York, he has had a ton of success in the past against tonight's opponent.

Gee is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.929 WHIP in two career starts against the Cardinals. He has allowed just four earned runs and nine hits over 14 innings in those two outings against St. Louis.

Gee is 11-4 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. New York is a very profitable 47-42 (+15.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. Take the Mets Tuesday.

20* Knicks/Pacers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on New York +5.5

This is essentially a must-win situation for the New York Knicks as they cannot afford to fall behind 3-1 in this series against the Indiana Pacers. I look for them to respond well and to win Game 4 to nod this series at 2-2, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

After getting upset in Game 1, the Knicks responded very well in Game 2 with a blowout 105-79 victory. This team has proven that it has some resiliency, and I look for that to show tonight on the road in Game 4.

New York is 48-28 ATS as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. New York is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games following a S.U. loss. The Pacers are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games after allowing less than 75 points in their previous game. Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Thunder/Grizzlies TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 184.5

As a series goes on, the more teams become familiar with one another, and the tougher it is to score points as a result. That was evident in Game 3 of this series as Memphis beat Oklahoma City 87-81 for 168 combined points.

I fully expect this pivotal Game 4 to be similarly low-scoring to Game 3. Memphis controls the tempo playing at home, and it wants to grind it out in the half court. Oklahoma City is unable to run due to Russell Westbrook being out for the season.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The UNDER is 21-6-2 in Thunder last 29 games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The UNDER is 12-4 in Grizzlies last 16 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee Brewers +135

The Pittsburgh Pirates are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers as a big home favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers Monday. I'll gladly side with the value and back the road dog in this one for a couple of different reasons.

The biggest is that I believe Milwaukee actually has the edge on the mound in this one despite what the season numbers say. Marco Estrada has pitched his best away from home this year, going 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.086 WHIP through three road starts for Milwaukee.

What I really love about Estrada is the fact that he has dominated his opposition in the past. Estrada is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in six career starts against Pittsburgh. A.J. Burnett is 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA in nine career starts against the Brewers.

Milwaukee is 59-18 in its last 77 meetings with Pittsburgh. The Pirates are 5-12 in Burnett's last 17 starts. The Brewers are 9-1 in Estrada's last 10 starts vs. National League Central opponents. Milwaukee is 5-0 in Estrada's last 5 starts during game 1 of a series. Take the Brewers Monday.

15* MLB Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on New York Mets +180

The New York Mets are showing awesome value Monday as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards do not have the edge on the mound OR at the plate that this line would indicate.

Lance Lynn is off to a fast start for St. Louis, but he was last year, too, and only put up pedestrian numbers by season's end. Lynn is 0-1 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.927 WHIP in one career start against New York, giving up three runs, two earned, and nine base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 0-5 loss in June of 2012.

Jeremy Hefner is a much better starter than he's getting credit for here. He has been dominant of late, posting a 3.00 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in his last three starts. Hefner has allowed just 7 earned runs and 19 base runners over 21 innings in his last three outings.

St. Louis is scoring just 3.9 runs/game at home this season, while New York is scoring 5.4 runs/game on the road. The Cardinals are 11-24 (-20.8 Units) against the money line after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Mets Monday.

15* Angels/White Sox ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +120

The Los Angeles Angels are showing excellent value as a road underdog to the Chicago White Sox tonight. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price.

After a slow start to the season, the Angels are starting to live up to their potential, winning each of their last three games. This is still one of the best teams in the league despite their record. Now, we're finally getting a good price on them, and now is the time to back the Angels.

C.J. Wilson is 22-5 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. His teams are winning 5.2 to 3.1 in this spot, or by an average of 2.1 runs/game. Take Los Angeles Sunday.

15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Seattle Mariners +115

The Seattle Mariners are showing excellent value as a home underdog to the Oakland A's Sunday. Seattle starter Joe Saunders is one of the most underrated starters in the league, which is why the Mariners are a dog today.

Saunders has been absolutely dominant at home, going 2-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 0.761 WHIP through three starts. He has allowed just 2 earned runs and 17 base runners over 22 1/3 innings at home this year.

Saunders is 13-6 with a 3.57 ERA in 21 career starts against Oakland. Saunders is 15-6 (+10.1 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997. Roll with the Mariners Sunday.

20* Spurs/Warriors ABC Sunday No-Brainer on OVER 198

There is a ton of value on the OVER in Game 4 between the San Antonio and Golden State. The oddsmakers have set this number lower than any of the first three games.

The books set the total in the first three games at 203, 204.5 and 201.5. I'll gladly take advantage of this value in Game 4, and you should too. Golden State has been at its best when going small ball, and after losing Game 3, I look for the Warriors to go small ball again.

The Spurs are 22-11 to the OVER in road games off a road win over the last 2 seasons. They are combining with their opponents to average 203.3 points/game in this situation. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +175

Can you believe that the Miami Marlins have the edge on the mound Saturday, yet they are nearly a 2-to-1 dog to the Los Angeles Dodgers? What's more, the Dodgers have lost eight straight coming into this one, yet they are getting this much respect from oddsmakers.

I'll gladly gobble up this value and back the Marlins at an excellent price. Kevin Slowey is arguably the single-most underrated starter in the league to this point, going 1-2 with a 1.81 ERA and 0.940 WHIP in seven starts. He's 1-1 with a 0.98 ERA and 0.873 WHIP in three road starts as well.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been solid for Los Angeles, but his numbers pale in comparison to Slowey's. Ryu is 3-2 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.214 WHIP in seven starts this season for the Dodgers.

Los Angeles is 0-8 in May games this season. Miami is 25-14 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games in May games over the last 3 seasons. The Dodgers are 0-7 (-11.4 Units) against the money line in home games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities this season. Roll with the Marlins Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Mound Mismatch on Philadelphia Phillies -101

The Philadelphia Phillies have a big edge on the mound tonight over the Arizona Diamondbacks, and they should not be an underdog as a result. After losing the first two games of this series, and three straight overall by exactly one run each, the Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.

I look for them to bounce back with a win behind ace Cliff Lee. The left-hander has been dominant this season, going 3-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in seven starts, including 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in four road starts.

Trevor Cahill is off to a fast start to the season for Arizona, but he's being overvalued as a result. There's no question in my mind that we'll be backing the better starter in Lee, who is 3-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 0.889 WHIP in five career starts against Arizona.

The Phillies are 17-4 in Lees last 21 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 4-0 in Lee's last 4 starts as an underdog. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in Cahill's last 5 starts vs. National League East. Take the Phillies Saturday.

15* Knicks/Pacers ABC Saturday ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -4

The Indiana Pacers are highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 after getting blown out in Game 2. They stole Game 1, and then proceeded to not show up in Game 2 because they were simply satisfied with taking home-court advantage from the Knicks.

That blowout in Game 2 will get their attention, and Indiana will be refocused and playing with a chip on its shoulder Saturday. The Pacers are one of the best home teams in the league this season, going 33-11 while outscoring opponents by 8.5 points/game. Indiana won its first three home playoff games over the Atlanta Hawks by 17, 15 and 13 points.

New York is expected to get Amare Stoudemire back in the line-up in this one, and he's likely to play 10-15 minutes. Stoudemire has been a huge plague on this team since Carmelo Anthony joined, and the Knicks for whatever reason struggle with him on the floor.

This play falls into a system that is 70-36 (66%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, good rebounding team (+3 to +5.5 reb/game) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game).

Mike Woodson is 4-15 ATS in road games in all playoff games in all games he has coached since 1996. Frank Vogel is 34-20 ATS off a road loss as the coach of Indiana. The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The home team has won six of the last seven meetings with Indiana's Game 1 win in New York being the only exception. Roll with the Pacers Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-104)

The Detroit Tigers will have no problem winning by two-plus runs Saturday given the edge they have on the mound in this one. I fully expect you to be counting your chips by the end of the 5th inning ladies and gents.

Detroit gives the ball to 2011 AL Cy Young & AL MVP winner, Justin Verlander Saturday. The right-hander continues to be arguably the best starter in the league this season, going 4-2 with a 1.55 ERA and 1.101 WHIP through seven starts, including 2-0 with a 0.86 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in his last three.

Ubaldo Jimenez has been atrocious once again in 2012 as he continues to prove that he was one of the worst trades in Cleveland history. The right-hander is 2-2 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.314 WHIP through six starts this season for the Indians.

Jimenez is 4-7 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Tigers. In his last two starts at Detroit, Jimenez has given up 10 earned runs over 12 2/3 innings in 1-7 and 1-6 losses, respectively.

Verlander is a perfect 13-0 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are winning in this spot 4.8 to 1.7, or by an average of 3.1 runs/game. Bet Detroit on the Run Line Saturday.

20* Thunder/Grizzlies ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 188

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder. The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another, and the harder it is to score points.

Memphis and Oklahoma City combined for 184 points in Game 1 and 192 points in Game 2 for an average of 188 combined points. Given my theory, I believe there is a ton of value in the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

Neither team really can run, which is a huge edge towards the UNDER. Oklahoma City is playing at a much slower pace without Russell Westbrook, while Memphis is a half-court team at nature, and it will control the tempo playing at home tonight.

I look for a similar final score to the Memphis/LAC match-up in Game 3 of Round 1. The Grizzlies won that game 94-82 for 176 combined points. Memphis is scoring 94.1 points/game and allowing 87.2 points/game at home this season for a combined average of 181.3 points/game.

This play falls into a system that is 51-26 (66.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on any team (OKLAHOMA CITY) - in a playoff series which is tied, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.

Oklahoma City is 12-4 to the UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. The Thunder are 17-3 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive home games this season. Memphis is 11-1 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+100)

Clay Buchholz is out to send a message to Toronto Saturday. It was Blue Jays broadcaster Jack Morris last week that accused Buchholz of throwing a spitball, which certainly hurt the pitcher's reputation.

That came after Buchholz pitched 7 shutout innings of a 10-1 victory over Mark Buehrle and the Blue Jays. That dominant start was nothing new for the right-hander, who has simply been mowing down the competition this season.

Buchholz is 6-0 with a 1.60 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in seven starts this season. The Red Sox are 7-0 in those games, winning five by 2 runs or more. Buchholz improved to 9-4 with a 2.36 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 15 career starts against the Blue Jays.

Mark Buehrle is simply washed up and stands no chance of keeping Toronto competitive in this one. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 7.03 ERA and 1.561 WHIP in seven starts this season. Buehrle is 7-9 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.454 WHIP in 20 career starts against Boston.

Boston is 13-2 (+11.4 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season. It is winning by 2.8 runs/game in this spot. Buchholz is 18-3 (+13.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Boston is winning by 2.6 runs/game in this situation. Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on New York Mets -109

The New York Mets are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday. They have a huge edge on the mound in this one, but that's not being reflected in this line like it should be.

Jon Niese has been at his best at home this season for New York, going 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four home starts. Also, Niese is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in three career starts against Pittsburgh, and his teams are 3-0 in those games having never lost.

Francisco Liriano makes his season debut for the Pirates today, and he is simply getting way too much respect from oddsmakers. In his last two seasons, Liriano has gone 9-10 with a 5.09 ERA in 2011, and 6-12 with a 5.34 ERA in 2012. He's clearly washed up.

Niese is 12-2 (+11.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday in his career. His teams are winning 6.2 to 2.4 on average in this spot. The Pirates are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 4-0 in Niese's last 4 starts as a favorite. Roll with the Mets Saturday.

20* Spurs/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +2.5

The San Antonio Spurs should not be an underdog to the Golden State Warriors in Game 3 Friday. After losing Game 2, I look for the Spurs to come out with a sense of urgency to try and regain home-court advantage with a Game 3 victory.

San Antonio has been one of the best road teams in the league all season at 25-18. The Spurs are 51-14 SU in their last 65 meetings with the Warriors, including 21-11 in their last 32 visits to Golden State.

This play falls into a system that is 24-6 (80%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN ANTONIO) - off an upset loss as a home favorite, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days.

San Antonio is a deadly 11-1 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. It has come back to win in this spot 107.8 to 95.8, or by an average of 12.0 points/game. Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -114

The San Francisco Giants should be a much heavier home favorite over the Atlanta Braves Friday night with ace Matt Cain on the mound. Rarely will you get Cain at this kind of price at home, and I'll gladly take advantage tonight.

Cain got off to a slow start this season, which is why he is being undervalued here. However, he came up with his best start of the season last time out, yielding just one earned run over 7 1/3 innings to get the win in a 4-3 home victory over the Dodgers.

Tim Hudson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. The right-hander, who is far past his prime, has posted a 5.29 ERA in three road starts in 2013. Cain is 3-2 with a 2.68 ERA in seven career starts against Atlanta.

The Giants are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. San Francisco is 40-18 in its last 58 during game 2 of a series. The Giants are 24-8 in Cains last 32 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Take San Francisco Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Indians +181

The Cleveland Indians are showing perhaps their best value of the season as a massive road underdog to the Detroit Tigers tonight. Cleveland is one of the most underrated teams in the league, while Detroit is one of the most overrated.

Cleveland comes in as the hottest team in baseball, yet it is getting no respect from oddsmakers here. The Indians have won 10 of their last 11 games overall to get to 18-4 on the season. Quietly, they have scored 6 or more runs in eight of those 11 contests.

Corey Kluber is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.186 WHIP in two starts and two relief appearances in 2013.

Max Scherzer is being way overvalued in this one. Detroit's right-hander has posted a 6.23 ERA in three home starts this season. Scherzer sports a 5.26 ERA and 1.563 WHIP in 11 career starts against Cleveland. He has given up 9 earned runs and 21 base runners over 9 1/3 innings in his last two home starts against the Indians.

Cleveland is 18-6 (+12.0 Units) against the money line after a win by 6 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. The Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 games as an underdog. Roll with Cleveland Friday.

15* NL Thursday Mound Mismatch on Philadelphia Phillies +110

The Philadelphia Phillies clearly have the edge on the mound in Game 1 of this series with the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. They should be the favorite, not the underdog as a result.

Cole Hamels remains one of the best starters in the league. Sure, he got off to a slow start this season, but he has returned to form of late. Hamels has posted a 2.05 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in his last three starts.

Pat Corbin is off to a hot start for Arizona, and he's being overvalued as a result. He'll come back down to reality as the season goes on. Hamels is 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in seven career starts against Arizona. The Phillies are 6-1 in those seven games.

Hamels is 30-7 (+19.3 Units) against the money line in May games since 1997. The Phillies are 13-3 in Hamels' last 16 starts vs. National League West. Philly is 7-1 in its last 8 games vs. NL West opponents. The Phillies are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Diamondbacks are 1-7 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Phillies Thursday.

20* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -110

I look for the New York Mets to crush the Pittsburgh Pirates at home in Game 1 of this series Thursday. Jeff Locke is getting too much respect from oddsmakers in this one folks.

I'll gladly back New York starter Dillon Gee, who has posted a 2.50 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in three home starts this season. Gee is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in three career starts against Pittsburgh. His teams are a perfect 3-0 in those games having never lost.

Locke has faced the Mets once in his career, and it didn't go well. He gave up 5 earned runs and 10 base runners over 3 2/3 innings of a 0-6 loss at New York on September 26th of 2012.

Locke is 0-6 (-8.1 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are 92-187 in their last 279 games as a road underdog. The Mets are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home favorite. New York is 20-7 in its last 27 home meetings with Pittsburgh. Bet the Mets Thursday.

15* AL Thursday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Minnesota Twins +143

The Minnesota Twins are one of the most underrated teams in the league this season. They have quietly compiled a 15-15 record this season while profiting $1,000/game bettors $5,600.

Boston is undervalued once again tonight as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox, who are overvalued due to their 21-13 start. There's no doubt that the Twins have the edge on the mound in this one, and they shouldn't be the underdog as a result.

Kevin Correia is the definition of underrated. The right-hander has gone 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.137 WHIP through six starts this season for Minnesota. John Lackey is washed up for Boston, though he's 1-2 with a respectable 3.52 ERA and 1.435 WHIP through three starts this season.

Boston is 13-30 (-21.9 Units) against the money line vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 2 seasons. The Twins are 7-1 in their last 8 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Red Sox are 9-25 (-19.9 Units) against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 8-21 in its last 29 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Roll with the Twins Thursday.

25* NBA Second Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Warriors/Spurs UNDER 205

I'm siding with the UNDER in this Game 2 between the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors as my best total for the entire second round of the playoffs. I successfully cashed in the OVER in Game 1, but I'm going in the other way in Game 2.

After a high-scoring, 129-127 double-overtime victory in Game 1, the books have been forced to set this number higher than it should be. The total was set at 201 for Game 1, and now it's been jacked all the way up to 205, providing us with excellent line value on the UNDER.

Golden State shot lights out in Game 1 at 51.0% behind Stephon Curry's amazing shooting display. He put in 44 points, and there's no way the Warriors light it up again like they did in Game 1 as San Antonio makes the proper adjustments.

Both teams were simply gassed after playing a double-overtime game. I believe that will carry over into this Game 2 as nearly really looks to run the floor like they normally would. I look for this to be a half-court game, and for the shooting to be off due to the tired legs.

This play falls into a system that is 43-12 (78.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

San Antonio is 8-1 to the UNDER in home games after scoring 110 points or more this season. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Yankees/Rockies Interleague No-Brainer on New York +121

The New York Yankees are showing solid value as a road underdog to the Colorado Rockies tonight. After losing Game 1 of this interleague series 2-0, I look for them to bounce back with a victory in Game 2.

Juan Nicasio is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. He is 3-0 despite a 4.91 ERA and 1.534 WHIP through six starts this season. Nicasio has also posted a 5.79 ERA and 1.501 WHIP in two home starts this year.

Colorado is 1-11 (-11.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series. The Yankees are 4-0 in David Phelps' last 4 starts. The Rockies are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. These four trends combine for a 27-1 system backing New York. Take the Yankees Wednesday.

15* Interleague Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Rangers +106

The Texas Rangers should not be an underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. After losing Game 1 of this interleague series to the Brewers 3-6, I look for the Rangers to bounce back behind red hot starter Derek Holland.

The left-hander has been dominant this season, going 2-2 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.937 WHIP over six starts in 2013. While Kyle Lohse is off to a decent start this season for Milwaukee, he is 3-3 with a 7.28 ERA and 1.766 WHIP in 10 career starts against Texas.

Holland is 15-3 (+11.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 69-27 in their last 96 games following a loss. The Brewers are 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Rangers Wednesday.

15* Interleague Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -113

The Chicago White Sox have a big edge on the mound tonight. After losing to the Mets 1-0 last night behind a brilliant effort from Matt Harvey, I look for them to bounce back in Game 2 behind Jake Peavy.

The former Cy Young winner has returned to form over the past couple of seasons. Peavy is 3-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in five starts this year, including 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in his last three starts. He is also 5-2 with a 3.48 ERA in 10 career starts against New York.

Jeremy Hefner is no match for Peavy. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 4.34 ERA in five starts and one relief appearance in 2013. In fact, the Mets are 0-6 in games that he has appeared in this season. I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take the White Sox Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Oakland A's +105

After losing the first two games of this series to Cleveland, the Oakland A's will be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday in Game 3. I like their chances of getting a win considering the edge they have on the mound in this one.

A.J. Griffin is a much better starter than he gets credit for, going 3-2 with a 3.79 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in six starts this season. He has never faced Cleveland, which is a huge advantage for him.

Justin Masterson got off to a fast start this year, but he has really come back down to reality, going 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA in his last two starts. Masterson is 1-5 with a 10.36 ERA and 2.128 WHIP in six career starts against Oakland. He gave up 19 earned runs over 14 2/3 innings in three starts against the A's in 2012.

The A's are 9-0 in Griffin's last 9 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Oakland is 17-5 in Griffin's last 22 starts overall. The A's are 7-2 in Griffin's last 9 starts as a road underdog. Bet Oakland Wednesday.

15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami Marlins +162

The Miami Marlins are showing some of their best value of the season as a big road underdog to the San Diego Padres tonight. San Diego (14-18) doesn't have any business being this heavily favored against any team in this league.

That's especially the case tonight considering the edge that Miami has on the mound. Alex Sanabia is just 2-4 with a 4.67 ERA in all starts this year, but he's 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA in three road starts, pitching his best away from home.

Eric Stults has been simply atrocious for San Diego, going 2-2 with a 5.08 ERA in all starts, and 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two home starts. Stults is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two career starts against the Marlins as well.

Miami is 24-12 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in road games in May games over the last 3 seasons. The Marlins are 26-17 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Marlins Tuesday.

20* Grizzlies/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 186.5

This Memphis vs. Oklahoma City series has defensive battle written all over it. With no Russell Westbrook, the Thunder are virtually forced to play a half-court game, which is exactly what Memphis likes.

These teams combined for 184 points in Game 1 with a 93-91 Oklahoma City victory. Memphis shot 42.7% while the Thunder were held to 41.2% shooting. I look for an even lower-scoring game in Game 2 tonight.

The UNDER is 20-6 in Grizzlies last 26 vs. NBA Northwest division opponents. The UNDER is 36-17 in Grizzlies last 53 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Thunder last 12 vs. NBA Southwest foes. The UNDER is 20-5-2 in Thunder last 27 games overall. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Thunder last 17 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cincinnati Reds -115

The Cincinnati Reds are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Atlanta Braves tonight given the edge they have on the mound. I look for a blowout victory for the home team as they bounce back from a loss in Game 1.

Homer Bailey is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander has posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.179 WHIP in all starts this season, and he's 1-0 with a minscule 0.90 ERA and 0.850 WHIP in three home starts.

If that's not enough to wow you with this guy, then just take a look at his career numbers against Atlanta. Bailey is 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in three career starts against the Braves, and the Reds are a perfect 3-0 in those starts having never lost. Roll with the Reds Tuesday.

15* Pacers/Knicks TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on OVER 183

The books have once again missed their mark on the total in Game 2 of this series just as they did in Game 1. Indiana beat New York 102-95 in Game 1 for 197 combined points despite a total set of just 181.5.

What the public and thus the oddsmakers have failed to realize is that Indiana is no longer a slow-it-down, defensive team. That's evident by the fact that the Pacers are 9-3 to the OVER in their last 12 games overall. They have scored 100-plus points in 10 of their last 18 games as well.

We all know that the Knicks can fill it up as they are averaging 101.4 points/game at home this season. They managed 95 points in Game 1 despite shooting just 43.2% as a team, including 10-for-28 from Carmelo Anthony and 4-for-15 from J.R. Smith. I look for both Anthony and Smith to be much more efficient tonight, which will lead to 100-plus points for New York.

The OVER is 4-0 in Pacers last 4 Conference Semifinals games. The OVER is 11-3 in Pacers last 14 games playing on 1 days rest. The OVER is 4-1 in Knicks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* Phillies/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +135

The San Francisco Giants are in a huge letdown spot after sweeping the arch-rival Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend with three straight wins by exactly one run. Philadelphia is highly motivated for a victory after losing two in a row to the Marlins over the weekend.

These motivational factors, plus the fact that the Phillies have the edge on the mound, make for a great bet on undervalued road underdog tonight. Rarely will you ever get a starter of Cliff Lee's caliber at this kind of price.

Lee is 2-2 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.152 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.905 WHIP in three road starts. The left-hander has been dominant in seven career starts against San Francisco, going 4-2 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.841 WHIP in seven starts.

The Phillies are 16-4 in Lee's last 20 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 5-0 in its last 5 vs. NL West opponents. The Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Giants are 0-5 in Bumgarner's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Phillies Monday.

15* MLB Monday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +166

The San Diego Padres have no business being this heavily favored over any team in this league. That includes the Miami Marlins, who have clearly struggled in the early going, but are finally starting to turn the corner.

Miami is coming off back-to-back wins over the Philadelphia Phillies over the weekend. They won 2-0 Saturday before exploding for 14 runs in a 14-2 victory Sunday. I look for them to win three in a row behind Wade LeBlanc tonight.

"To keep adding on ... not only for the score, but for our guys, to stay hungry, and to keep grinding out at-bats and keep putting the pressure on, that's what we needed," manager Mike Redmond told the Marlins' official website. "For guys to go up and be a little greedy and take advantage was good to see."

Andrew Cashner has struggled in four relief appearances against Miami, posting an 11.57 ERA. San Diego is 1-11 (-10.9 Units) against the money line off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the Marlins Monday.

20* Warriors/Spurs Game 1 No-Brainer on OVER 201

The books have missed their mark badly in Game 1 of this series between Golden State and San Antonio. I believe there is a ton of value with the OVER tonight as both teams put up 100-plus in this one.

Golden State has been forced to play small ball due to injuries to a couple of their big men. As a result, it is more vulnerable defensively, and I look for San Antonio to put up a big number because of it. I don't believe the Warriors miss a beat offensively going small ball, though.

This play falls into a system that is 47-17 (73.4%) to the OVER since 1996. It tells us to bet the OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 4 or more consecutive games.

Golden State is 29-16 to the OVER as an underdog this season. The OVER is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Warriors are 14-6 to the OVER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Dodgers/Giants ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +118

The Los Angeles Dodgers are highly motivated for a victory over their biggest rivals tonight on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball. They lost the first two games of this series, so they certainly do not want to get swept by losing Game 3 as well.

I like Los Angeles' chances of getting a Game 3 victory considering the edge they have on the mound tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu is one of the most underrated starters in the game because not many know about this rookie.

Ryu is 3-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.142 WHIP through six starts this season. He'll be up against Matt Cain, who is 0-2 with a 6.49 ERA through six starts, including 0-1 with an 11.17 ERA through two home starts.

The Dodgers are 14-4 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in road games with triple revenge - 3 straight losses against opponent over the last 3 seasons. They are bouncing back to win in this spot 5.7 to 3.3 on average. Take the Dodgers Sunday.

20* Pacers/Knicks Game 1 No-Brainer on Indiana +5.5

The Indiana Pacers are the most underrated team left in the playoffs. That's once again evident as they are a 5.5-point underdog to the New York Knicks in Game 1 of this series Sunday.

I look for Indiana to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for some insurance. The Pacers have won three of their last five meetings with the Knicks.

Indiana is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 39% or less since 1996. The Pacers are 25-10 ATS (+14.0 Units) after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more since 1996. Bet the Pacers Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -128

With a huge edge on the mound tonight, I'll gladly back the Tampa Bay Rays as a small road favorite over the Colorado Rockies. David Price is in the prime of his career, while Jon Garland is washed up and doesn't belong in the big leagues any more.

The 2012 AL Cy Young winner has been below-average to this point of the season, which is why he is undervalued. However, Price has been solid in two recent starts, allowing six earned runs over 15 innings to the Yankees and White Sox.

Garland is 2-2 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.387 WHIP through five starts this season. It just goes to show how terrible the Rockies' rotation really is that they had to get Garland to start for them in 2013.

This play falls into a system that is 52-13 (80%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (COLORADO) - with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL). Roll with the Rays Saturday.

20* Bulls/Nets Game 7 No-Brainer on Chicago Money Line +256

The Chicago Bulls have been left for dead. Everyone has written them off after losing the last two games after taking a 3-1 series lead. This has been the most resilient team in the league over the last few years, and I look for them to win outright in Game 7.

Tom Thibodeau is the is the best motivator there is in the NBA. Thibodeau is 23-8 ATS off a home loss as the coach of Chicago. Thibodea is also 25-9 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Chicago.

The Bulls are actually coming back to win in this spot 97.6 to 88.9, or by an average of 8.7 points/game. Chicago is one of the best road teams in the league this season at 22-22 away from home. Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Red Sox +130

The Boston Red Sox are showing awesome value as a road underdog to the Texas Rangers tonight. Boston has been the best team in the league at 20-9 this season.

The Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory after losing Game 1 of this series 7-0 to the Rangers. I like their chances of bouncing back behind the underrated John Lackey, who is 1-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.258 WHIP through two starts this season.

Alexi Ogando is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to a fast start this season. He has come back down to reality of late, though, going 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Red Sox are 6-0 in Lackey's last 6 starts with 5 days of rest. Boston is 6-1 in its last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Red Sox Saturday.

15* Dodgers/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -133

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a massive edge on the mound tonight. Rarely will you ever get them at this kind of price with Clayton Kershaw on the mound, so I'm going to take advantage in Game 1 vs. San Francisco Friday.

The 2011 NL Cy Young winner is going after the award again in 2013. Kershaw is 3-2 with a 1.73 ERA and 0.912 WHIP with 47 strikeouts over 41 2/3 innings this season. The left-hander is 9-4 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 17 career starts against San Francisco.

Barry Zito is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to pitching well in the playoffs, and getting off to a solid start this year. However, Zito has finally come back down to reality of late, going 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.1724 WHIP over his last three starts.

The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Los Angeles is 38-14 in Kershaw's last 52 starts as a favorite. The Dodgers are 20-6 in Kershaw's last 26 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 5-1 in Kershaw's last 6 road starts vs. San Francisco. Bet the Dodgers Friday.

20* Thunder/Rockets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -1

The Houston Rockets continue to get disrespected by oddsmakers in Game 6 tonight. They have been the better team in the last four games, and clearly in the last three since Russell Westbrook went down with injury.

I believe Houston has an excellent chance to become the first NBA team to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series. They now have advantages all over the floor over Oklahoma City that they did not have when Westbrook was healthy.

Westbrook's absence forces Kevin Durant to play the point-forward position, which he is extremely uncomfortable in. The loss of Westbrook clearly shows how good of a player he really is, but it's not being reflected in the odds tonight.

Houston is 30-13 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by 7.0 points/game. The Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Oklahoma City is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 meetings in Houston. Take the Rockets Friday.

25* Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Clippers +6.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are showing their best value of the entire series tonight as a 6.5-point road underdog in Game 6 to the Memphis Grizzlies. They aren't going to go down without a fight, not with Chris Paul running the show.

Yes, Memphis has owned this series for the last three games, but I look for Los Angeles to make the proper adjustments tonight. They haven't gotten anything from their bench as Chris Paul has had to do it all. I look for the bench and role players to finally step up and contribute with their season on the line.

Los Angeles is 39-24 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Clippers are 18-7 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons.

The Clippers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 2 days rest. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Memphis is simply overvalued tonight. Bet the Clippers Friday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -123

With the huge edge the Tampa Bay Rays have over the Colorado Rockies on the mound tonight, they should be a much heavier favorite in Game 1 of this interleague series. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at a great price.

Tampa Bay starter Matt Moore has arguably been the Cy Young in the American League to this point. The flame-throwing left-hander is 5-0 with a 1.12 ERA and 0.875 WHIP with 38 strikeouts in 32 innings over five starts this season.

Moore will be up against the washed-up Jeff Francis, who has simply been atrocious this season for Colorado. The left-hander is 1-2 with a 7.29 ERA and 1.952 WHIP in five starts this year, allowing 17 earned runs and 41 base runners over 21 innings.

Colorado is 0-9 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. AL teams allowing 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Rockies are 0-11 (-12.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons. These two trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Rays. Also, Tampa is 22-6 in its last 28 vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Rays Friday.

15* Celtics/Knicks ESPN Game 6 No-Brainer on Boston +2

The New York Knicks have awoken a sleeping giant. From J.R. Smith saying the series would be over if he had played in Game 4, to the black clothing the Knicks showed up in in Game 5 signifying Boston's funeral, they couldn't possibly be any more stupid.

Boston is a team that will never quit as long as Doc Rivers is head coach. This team will show even more fight than it did in Games 4 and 5 in Game 6 tonight in front of a raucous home crowd. I look for the Celtics to win Game 6, and to have an excellent chance to be the first team to come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series.

Remember, New York hasn't won a playoff series since 2000, so all of the pressure is on the Knicks. It's not going to be easy to win in Boston where the Celtics are 28-14 SU & 23-18-1 ATS on the season.

The Celtics are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 home games. Boston is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Knicks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Conference Quarterfinals games. Roll with the Celtics Friday.

20* Nuggets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State -1

The Golden State Warriors will close out this series with the Denver Nuggets tonight in Game 6. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series with Golden State being the only road team to win, and it did so emphatically with a 131-117 triumph in Game 2.

Oracle Arena is one of the best atmospheres in the league come playoff time. It has been a huge advantage for the Warriors all season as they are 30-13 at home on the year. It will be rockin' for Stephon Curry and company tonight.

There's a reason why Golden State is a perfect 5-0 ATS in this series. Denver is simply overvalued as it is getting treated like the team that it was in the regular season, and not the one that it is now. The Nuggets clearly miss Danilo Gallinari as they aren't the same dynamic team without him.

The Nuggets are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss. Golden State is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games overall. These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing Golden State. Bet the Warriors Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +120

The Chicago White Sox should not be an underdog to the Texas Rangers tonight. They have a big edge on the mound with Jake Peavy over Justin Grimm, and I'll gladly take advantage and back them at this price because of it.

Peavy, the former Cy Young winner, has returned to form over the past two seasons. He's off to a 3-1 start with a 3.37 ERA and 1.125 WHIP with 39 strikeouts over 32 innings this season.

Justin Grimm is off to a solid start for Texas, but it's a bit misleading. He has faced Seattle twice and Minnesota once in his three starts this year, which are two of the worst lineups in baseball. He is raw and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.

Texas is 18-30 (-18.2 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better over the last 2 seasons. The White Sox are 5-0 in Peavy's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Chicago is 6-2 in its last 8 meetings with Texas. Take the White Sox Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -125

The Boston Red Sox should be a much heavier favorite tonight over the Toronto Blue Jays. Boston (19-8) owns the best record in baseball, while Toronto (10-18) owns the second-worst record in the American League.

The Red Sox are hitting .276 and scoring 5.4 runs/game overall, including .295 and 6.5 runs/game on the road. The Blue Jays are hitting .228 and scoring 3.7 runs/game overall. Toronto is really missing Jose Reyes (ankle) right now.

Boston also has a huge edge on the mound in this one. Ryan Dempster has posted a 3.30 ERA and 1.113 WHIP with 43 strikeouts in 30 innings this season. While Dempster has been a proven winner throughout his career, Toronto's J.A. Happ hasn't done anything in the big leagues. That's why I'm not buying his decent start (3.86 ERA, 1.250 WHIP) to the season.

Happ is 9-24 (-13.0 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are 20-6 in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Boston is 6-1 in its 7 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Red Sox Thursday.

20* Rockets/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +8.5

The books have missed the mark badly on this Game 5 between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder. The last three games in this series have been decided by a total of 8 points, which is less than tonight's spread of 8.5.

I'll gladly take advantage and back the Rockets, who are playing with nothing to lose the rest of the way after everyone counted them out down 3-0. The fact of the matter is that Houston could be the team up 3-1 right now had a couple more breaks gone their way.

Oklahoma City has no business being this heavily favored without Russell Westbrook. It is not nearly as dynamic without him, which will make it hard for the Thunder to cover this inflated number tonight even if they do win.

The Rockets are 102-64 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games since 1996. Houston is 21-9 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* Hawks/Pacers NBA TV No-Brainer on Indiana -7

Home-court advantage has simply been huge in this series between Indiana and Atlanta. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in four meetings, winning by double-digits each time. I look for that trend to continue in Game 5 Wednesday.

The home team has now won eight straight meetings between these teams dating back to the regular season. Indiana is 32-11 at home this season where it is outscoring its opponents by an average of 8.1 points/game.

Atlanta is 10-26 ATS in its last 36 playoff road games. The Hawks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Pacers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

The home team is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings. The favorite is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings. Roll with the Pacers Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Nationals +108

The Washington Nationals are highly motivated for a victory over the Atlanta Braves tonight. They have lost nine straight in this series dating back to last season, and they DO NOT want the streak to reach double-digits tonight.

I like the Nationals' chances of putting an end to the skid considering the huge edge they have on the mound in this one. Jordan Zimmerman is one of the most underrated starters in the league, going 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.861 WHIP in five starts this season.

Zimmerman is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA in five career starts against Atlanta, while Paul Maholm is 2-6 with a 4.91 ERA in 11 career starts against Washington. Maholm is also 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 9 2/3 innings.

Zimmerman is 14-2 (+10.9 Units) against the money line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. Zimmerman is 20-5 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Nationals Wednesday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -130

Cliff Lee has been one of the best starters in the entire league this season. That's nothing new considering he's been one of the best ever since winning the Cy Young a few years back. I'll gladly back him at this price against the Cleveland Indians tonight.

Philadelphia has a massive edge on the mound with Lee over Cleveland rookie Trevor Bauer. Lee is 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.037 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA and 0.533 WHIP in two road starts.

Bauer will be making just his second start of the season. His first did not go too well as he allowed 3 earned runs and 9 base runners (7 walks) in a 0-6 loss at Tampa Bay on April 6th. He clearly showed some nerves walking 7 batters in the loss.

The Phillies are embarrassed from their 14-2 loss last night and they want to get revenge tonight. Philadelphia is 10-1 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in road games after allowing 8 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is 1-11 (-10.2 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons. Take the Phillies Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Knicks TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +9

After falling behind 3-0, the Boston Celtics could have easily quit. Instead, they scratched out a hard-fought overtime victory in Game 4, and they're certainly not about to pack it in now.

Boston will be motivated by J.R. Smith's comments in which he said if he played in Game 4, this series would have been over. The Celtics want to prove that that's not the case, and I believe Smith made a big mistake by opening his mouth about it whether he believes it or not.

New York is 1-8 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season. The Knicks are 2-11 ATS when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. The Celtics are 19-9 ATS in the last 28 meetings in New York. Take Boston Wednesday.

20* Grizzlies/Clippers TNT Tuesday No-Brainer on Los Angeles -5

The home team has won each of the first four meetings in this series with three of them being blowouts. After Memphis took care of business in Games 3 and 4 at home, I look for Los Angeles to return the favor at home in Game 5 with a blowout victory.

Chris Paul, one of the most underrated leaders in the game, will rally his troops and have everyone hitting on all cylinders tonight. Paul hasn't been getting much help since Game 1, but playing at home tonight, I look for the role players to feel a lot more comfortable, which will allow them to contribute a lot more.

Los Angeles is 39-23 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, the Clippers are 18-6 ATS when playing with double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Clippers Tuesday.

15* NL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Padres/Cubs UNDER 10

The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs will play part in a pitcher's duel tonight. The books have set this number way too high as two underrated starters go up against two of the worst line-ups in baseball.

While neither starter has been dominant in the early going, both have been excellent against tonight's opposition. Edinson Volquez has posted a 2.21 ERA in six career starts against Chicago. Edwin Jackson sports a 3.99 ERA in six career starts against San Diego.

The Padres are hitting .243 and scoring 3.5 runs/game this season, including .233 and 3.2 runs/game on the road. The Cubs are hitting .232 and scoring 3.4 runs/game on the year.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Padres last 4 road games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 during game 2 of a series. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Padres last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The UNDER is 6-1 in Cubs last 7 overall. These four trends combine for a 21-2 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* AL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Chicago White Sox +185

The Chicago White Sox are showing tremendous value as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog to the Texas Rangers tonight. Yu Darvish is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to his fast start this season.

Well, the underrated Jose Quintana has been nearly as good. Chicago's best-kept secret is 2-0 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.059 WHIP through four starts this season, including 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.585 WHIP in two road starts.

Quintana faced the Rangers once last season, giving up just one earned run over 8 innings while striking out eight in a 2-1 victory. Yu Darvish faced Chicago once last year, giving up 6 runs and 11 base runners over 6 1/3 innings of a 5-9 home loss to the White Sox.

The White Sox are 10-3 in their last 13 games following an off day. Chicago is 15-7 in its last 22 vs. AL West opponents. The White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings with Texas. Roll with Chicago Tuesday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals +105

The Washington Nationals should not be an underdog to the Atlanta Braves tonight. They will be highly motivated to put an end to an 8-game losing streak to Atlanta which extends back to last season.

Considering the Nationals have the edge on the mound in this one, I like their chances of ending the skid. Gio Gonzalez is by far the superior starter in this one over Tim Hudson even though their numbers are comparable in the early going this season.

Gonzalez is 22-7 (+13.2 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. His teams are winning 5.6 to 3.6 on average in this spot. Gonzalez is 16-4 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. His teams are winning 5.5 to 3.2 in this spot. Take the Nationals Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-129)

After getting embarrassed by the Houston Astros in a 9-1 home loss in Game 1 of this series, I fully expect the New York Yankees to bounce back with a blowout victory in Game 2 tonight.

Given the edge they have on the mound in this one, you'll be counting your chips by the end of the 5th inning folks. Houston's Philip Humber is simply atrocious, going 0-5 with a 7.98 ERA and 1.817 WHIP through five starts this season.

New York's Hiroki Kuroda is one of the most underrated starters in the league, going 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.035 WHIP through five starts this season to pick up right where he left off last year. Kuroda is 3-0 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.985 WHIP In seven career starts against Houston.

Houston is 10-41 (-20.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +250 over the last 2 seasons. It is losing by 2.7 runs/game in this spot. Humber is 0-9 (-9.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. His teams are losing by a whopping 5.8 runs/game in this spot. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-115)

I'll side with the 2011 AL Cy Young and 2011 AL MVP winner, Justin Verlander, to hand the Minnesota Twins a multi-run loss tonight. Given how he has fared in his most recent starts against Minnesota, it's easy to see why I'm backing the Tigers on the Run Line tonight.

Verlander is 7-0 with a 1.22 ERA in his last seven starts against the Twins dating back to 2010. Detroit has won ALL SEVEN of those games by 2 or more runs. Enough said. Take the Tigers on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -108

Rarely will you get the opportunity to get Roy Halladay at this kind of price against a team like the lowly Cleveland Indians. I'll gladly take advantage and back the former Cy Young winner, who has been returning to form.

Halladay got off to a slow start this season, which is why he is currently undervalued. However, he has returned to his old self of late, going 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.619 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed just 4 earned runs and 13 base runners over 21 innings in those three outings.

The Phillies are 54-26 in Halladay's last 80 starts. Philadelphia is 24-8 in Halladay's last 32 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Indians are 20-47 in their last 67 games as an underdog. Cleveland is 3-10 in Zach McAllister's last 13 starts overall. Bet the Phillies Tuesday.

15* Thunder/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 206.5

The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder are becoming very familiar with one another. As a result, each game since Game 1 has been lowing scoring. I look for that trend to continue tonight in this Game 4.

These teams combined for 211 points in Game 1, 207 Game 2 and 205 in Game 3. With their playoff lives at stake, I look for the Rockets to put forth their best defensive effort of the series tonight.

It's certainly much easier defending Oklahoma City considering it is without Russell Westbrook for the remainder of the playoffs. I don't expect the Thunder to get to 100 points tonight for the first time in this series. They simply cannot push the pace like they usually would with Westbrook on the floor.

This play falls into a system that is 52-17 (75.4%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (HOUSTON) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NL Non-Divisional PLAY OF THE DAY on Padres/Cubs UNDER 9

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the soft-hitting San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs. I look for a low-scoring, pitcher's duel in this one as two underrated starters will be getting the ball tonight.

Jeff Samardzija is one of the best young starters in the league. While he's only 1-4 this season, that's due to a lack of run support considering he has posted a 3.03 ERA and 1.102 WHIP with 39 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings.

Samardzija is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in two career starts against San Diego. While Clayton Richard has struggled in the early going for San Diego, he is 2-0 with a 0.57 ERA and 1.021 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago.

The Cubs are hitting just .229 and scoring 3.3 runs/game this season, including .204 and 2.2 runs/game against left-handed starters. The Padres are hitting .244 and scoring 3.5 runs/game this year, including .234 and 3.2 runs/game on the road.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Richard's last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 6-0 in Samardzija's last 6 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Samardzija's last 7 starts vs. National League West. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the UNDER. Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Hawks UNDER 186

The Indiana Pacers and Atlanta Hawks will play part in a defensive battle in this all-important Game 4. With Indiana leading the series 2-1, there is a lot at stake here. The more teams play each other, the more familiar they become with one another, and the harder it is to score.

That was certainly the case in Game 3 as Atlanta beat Indiana 90-69 for 159 combined points. While the Hawks shot just 42.7 percent from the floor, they were able to blow out the Pacers by limiting them to just 27.2 percent shooting.

The UNDER is 7-2 in Hawks last 9 home games. The UNDER is 13-5 in Hawks last 18 Conference Quarterfinals games. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NL Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Nationals/Braves UNDER 7

There is a lot to like about this UNDER tonight between the Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves. First and foremost, Atlanta is going to have a hard time scoring any runs against one of the best starters in baseball.

Stephen Strasburg gets the ball for Washington looking to improve upon his 1-4 start with a 3.16 ERA and 1.117 WHIP. He simply hasn't been getting any run support, which is the reason for his poor 1-4 record.

Julio Teheran had a great spring, but he got off to a slow start to the regular season for Atlanta. However, he is coming off his best start of the year, allowing just one earned run over 7 innings at Colorado on April 23rd.

In his last two starts against Atlanta, Strasburg has allowed a combined one earned run over 12 innings while striking out 17. Both teams are missing key hitters right now with the Braves playing without Jason Heyward and Brian McCann, and the Nationals without Ryan Zimmerman.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Strasburg's last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The UNDER is 9-4 in Strasburg's last 13 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The UNDER is 27-10-1 in Braves last 38 home games. The UNDER is 26-9-1 in Braves last 36 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Mets/Marlins UNDER 7

I look for a pitcher's duel tonight between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins. Two of the most underrated starters in the league will be getting the ball tonight, and they'll be up against two of the worst line-ups in baseball.

Matt Harvey is 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA and 0.686 WHIP through five starts this season. The youngster is clearly proving he is going to be the face of the franchise alongside David Wright for many years to come. Jose Fernandez is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.250 WHIP through four starts this season for Miami.

The Marlins have simply been atrocious at the plate this year. They are hitting .220 and scoring 2.7 runs/game on the season, including .190 and 2.4 runs/game at home. New York is hitting just .239 on the year.

Miami is 18-5 to the UNDER as a home underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Marlins last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Marlins last 21 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* Nuggets/Warriors NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on Denver -1.5

The Denver Nuggets get the call Sunday in a must-win Game 4 over the Golden State Warriors. Denver cannot afford to go down 1-3 with a loss, thus I look for them to do whatever it takes to win Game 4.

This play falls into a system that is 34-10 (77.3%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Denver is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. The Nuggets are 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons. Golden State is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

15* Braves/Tigers ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Atlanta +128

The Atlanta Braves are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Detroit Tigers tonight. I'll gladly back them at this price considering the edge they have on the mound in this one.

After losing the first two games in this series, the Braves are highly motivated for a victory tonight in Game 3. I like their chances of getting revenge with Mike Minor getting the ball in Game 3.

Minor is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.920 WHIP through four starts this season. Atlanta is 10-1 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better since 1997. Bet the Braves Sunday.

15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -113

The Philadelphia Phillies get the call Sunday with one of the most underrated starters in baseball on the mound. They should be a much heavier favorite considering Cole Hamels is getting the ball today.

The left-hander is off to a slow start this season, but that actually works in our favor because Hamels would normally be a much heavier favorite when up against a team like the lowly New York Mets and Jon Niese.

Hamels has really been pitching well of late, posting a 2.57 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts. Niese is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in his last three starts.

This play falls into a system that is 31-7 (81.6%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs. Bet the Phillies Sunday.

20* Rockets/Thunder Side & Total Parlay on Houston +1.5/UNDER 207.5

I am backing the Houston Rockets and the UNDER tonight as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3. My main reason for taking both plays is that Russell Westbrook will be out due to a torn meniscus in his knee.

The Thunder will be lost without their point guard on the floor tonight. As they struggle, it will prove just how important Westbrook is to this team. He constantly gets bashed in the media for taking too many shots, but the fact of the matter is the Thunder are better when he's being aggressive.

Without Westbrook, the Thunder are going to get much fewer fast break opportunities. They will look to slow it down and run their offense through Kevin Durant almost every time down the floor. The old man Derek Fisher will be running the point guard mostly tonight, and he doesn't have the ability to push the tempo.

The UNDER falls into a system that is 38-10 (79.2%) since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series.

Houston is 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. In fact, the Rockets are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rockets and the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Rockets/Thunder Side & Total Parlay on Houston +1.5/UNDER 207.5

I am backing the Houston Rockets and the UNDER tonight as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3. My main reason for taking both plays is that Russell Westbrook will be out due to a torn meniscus in his knee.

The Thunder will be lost without their point guard on the floor tonight. As they struggle, it will prove just how important Westbrook is to this team. He constantly gets bashed in the media for taking too many shots, but the fact of the matter is the Thunder are better when he's being aggressive.

Without Westbrook, the Thunder are going to get much fewer fast break opportunities. They will look to slow it down and run their offense through Kevin Durant almost every time down the floor. The old man Derek Fisher will be running the point guard mostly tonight, and he doesn't have the ability to push the tempo.

The UNDER falls into a system that is 38-10 (79.2%) since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series.

Houston is 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. In fact, the Rockets are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rockets and the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Cubs/Marlins UNDER 7.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this National League showdown between Chicago and Miami. These are two of the most underrated starters in the league, and they'll be up against two of the worst lineups in the league.

Travis Wood is off to an excellent start for Chicago. He's 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.038 WHIP through four starts this season. Alex Sanabia is 2-2 with a 5.09 ERA this season, but he's faced some very tough opponents in Cincinnati, Atlanta, Washington and New York.

The Cubs are hitting .226 and scoring 3.3 runs/game, including .198 and 2.5 runs/game on the road this season. The Marlins are hitting .220 and scoring 2.6 runs/game, .180 and 2.1 runs/game on the road, and .202 and 1.2 runs/game against left-handed starters this year.

This play falls into a system that is 46-11 (80.7%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (MIAMI) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL), playing on Saturday. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Nuggets/Warriors ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +1

The Denver Nuggets are showing solid value as a pick 'em tonight against the Golden State Warriors. After losing Game 2 in upset fashion, I look for the Nuggets to come out extra motivated tonight in Game 3 to regain home-court advantage for the series.

Golden State shot out of its mind in Game 2, and that's not going to happen again. It can play well one game without second-leading scorer David Lee, but it will not happen two games in a row.

That's especially the case considering Stephen Curry is banged up right now after twisting his ankle in Game 2. While Curry is listed as probable, there's no question he will not be at 100%. This guy has had chronic ankle problems throughout his career.

Denver is 19-4 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. The Nuggets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Take the Nuggets Friday.

20* Knicks/Celtics ESPN Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston -2.5

Whatever the Boston Celtics have to give tonight, they will be laying it all on the floor in Game 3. It's do or die for Boston, which can't afford to fall behind 0-3 in this series to the New York Knicks if it wants to continue to play past this round.

That's why I am backing the Celtics tonight knowing they'll be giving 110%, which will be more than enough to cover this generous 2.5-point spread in Game 3. Boston is a resilient team that will not back down under the guidance of Doc Rivers.

Boston is 27-13 at home this season. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. New York is 3-15 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.

Doc Rivers is 34-17 ATS off a loss against a division rival as the coach of Boston. Rivers is 41-26 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent as the coach of Boston. Mike Woodson is 2-14 ATS in road games in all playoff games in all games he has coached since 1996. Bet the Celtics Thursday.