15* Illinois/Michigan Big Ten No-Doubt Rout on Michigan -2

The Michigan Wolverines could not possibly be more undervalued than they are right now.  They are showing tremendous value as only 2-point home favorites against the Illinois Fighting Illini in the Big Ten opener for both teams.  I look for them to run away with this one.

The reason Michigan is so undervalued right now is because it has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.  That includes losses to some really bad teams that look terrible and are keeping the betting public from betting the Wolverines.  Now is the time to jump on them with the conference season starting.

I'm not sold that Illinois is a very good team this year, either.  It is 10-3 on the year with its 10 wins coming against the likes of Georgia Southern, Coppin State, Austin Peay, Brown, Indiana State, Baylor, American, Hampston, Missouri and Kennesaw State.  The Fighting Illini have lost to the three best teams they have faced in Villanova, Miami and Oregon.

That gives both Michigan and Illinois two high-quality common opponents.  Illinois lost on a neutral court to Villanova (59-73) and Oregon (70-77), getting outscored by 21 points in the two losses.  Michigan beat Oregon (70-63) and lost to Villanova (55-60) on a neutral court, so it outscored those two teams by 2 points.

This has been a very one-sided series to say the least.  Michigan is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Illinois.  Couple that dominance with the common opponents faced, and we're getting a big-time bargain on the Wolverines as only 2-point home favorites here.

Illinois is 8-25 ATS in its last 33 road games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half of last game.  The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Illinois is 0-7 ATS when playing on Tuesday over the last two seasons.  Roll with Michigan Wednesday.

15* Iowa/Ohio State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Iowa +7

The Iowa Hawkeyes had big expectations coming into the year.  They returned three starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament last season and most of their key reserves as well.  Obviously, they haven't gotten off to the start they would have liked at 9-4, but as a result they are undervalued right now.

Iowa has played an extremely difficult schedule.  Its four losses have come to Texas, Syracuse, Iowa State and Northern Iowa.  Well, Iowa State (9-1) is currently ranked 9th, Texas (10-2) is ranked 11th, Northern Iowa (11-1) is ranked 23rd, and Syracuse is a power every year.

The Hawkeyes have also played another ranked team in No. 19 North Carolina (9-3).  That was its only true road game of the season, and it beat the Tar Heels 60-55 as 7.5-point road underdogs.  That gives Iowa and Ohio State a common opponent.  Ohio State lost to UNC 74-82 as 1-point underdogs on a neutral court.

Yes, the Buckeyes are 11-2 this year, but they aren't as strong as in year's past.  Their 11 wins have come against some extremely soft competition in UMass-Lowell, Marquette, Sacred Heart, Campbell, James Madison, Colgate, High Point, Morehead State, North Carolina A&T, Miami Ohio and Wright State.  They have lost to the two best teams they've faced in Louisville (55-64) and UNC (74-82).

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series in recent years.  In fact, the road team has gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Ohio State.

Iowa is 31-17 ATS off one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 23-11 ATS off a home win over the last three years.  The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Ohio State is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Buckeyes are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take Iowa Tuesday.

15* CBB Monday Night Line Mistake on Tennessee State +24

This play is more of a fade of TCU then a play on Tennessee State.  TCU is just way overvalued right now due to its 12-0 start, and it's time to fade the Horned Frogs in the role of the biggest favorites they have been all season.

TCU is a team that I had circled as undervalued coming into the season, and I've even backed them a few times with success already.  However, that value is now zapped up because this team has opened 12-0 and the betting public has caught on.

This is a great spot to fade the Horned Frogs.  This is a huge lookahead spot for them.  They start Big 12 play on January 3rd against West Virginia and will certainly be looking ahead to that game.  As a result, they won't have the kind of focus it takes to put away Tennessee State by more than 24 today.

Obviously, at 2-11, the betting public wants nothing to do with Tennessee State.  However, this is a team that has only lost twice by more than 21 this season, and those two came at Vanderbilt and at Virginia as 19-point and 34-point dogs, respectively. 

Nine of their 11 losses have come by 21 or fewer points.  That includes their last two games against some very good competition.  They lost by 18 at Middle Tennessee State (47-65) and by 21 at Tennessee (46-67) as 22-point dogs.  They are certainly capable of staying within 24 of the Horned Frogs today.

Lesser teams have stayed within 24 of TCU this season on the road.  The Horned Frogs only beat Prairie Vie A&M by 17, New Orleans by 15, Radford by 24, Furman by 11 and McNeese State by 18 to name a few of the teams that have stayed within 24 of them on the road.

TCU is 1-10 ATS versus poor shooting teams making 42% of their shots or worse over the last three seasons.  Tennessee State is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams that make 48% of their shots or more over the last three seasons.  Tennessee State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after three straight games where they made 40% of their shots or worse.  The Horned Frogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing Tennessee State.  Take Tennessee State Monday.

15* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Bulls/Pacers UNDER 194.5

The books have set the bar too high in this battle between Eastern Conference Central Division rivals in Chicago and Indiana.  These teams are very familiar with one another, which certainly favors the defense and has in recent meetings between these teams.

Indeed, the Bulls and Pacers have combined for 189 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  They have combined for 189, 166, 170, 204, 177, 171 and 189 points in their last seven meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 180.9 points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

From a matchup perspective, the under is a good bet here as well.  Both teams love to play at slow paces.  The Pacers rank 21st in pace at 95.2 possessions per game and will control the tempo playing at home.  The Bulls rank 15th in pace at 95.9 possessions per game.

Both teams have been extremely efficient defensively as well.  They both rank in the top 10 as the Pacers are 8th in allowing 101.3 points per 100 possessions, while the Bulls are 9th allowing 101.8 points per 100 possessions.  Indiana ranks 29th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 98.2 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (CHICAGO) - off two or more consecutive home wins against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 38-13 (74.5%) to the UNDER since 1996.  Tthe UNDER is 9-4 in Bulls last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pacers last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 home games overall.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* WVU/Texas A&M Liberty Bowl No-Doubt Rout on Texas A&M +3.5

It’s mind-boggling to me that a middle-of-the-pack team from the Big 12 is actually favored over a bowl team from the SEC that played in the toughest conference in the country. As a result, I’ll be taking Texas A&M as a 3.5-point underdog to West Virginia in the 2014 Liberty Bowl. The Aggies have the edge in talent and schedule strength in this one, and it’s really not even close.

The Aggies played in the toughest division in the entire country in the SEC West. They managed to go a respectable 3-5 within the conference this season, which included wins over three other bowl teams in South Carolina, Arkansas and Auburn. Their five losses this year came to Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Alabama, Missouri and LSU, and they were competitive in four of those five losses.

I really liked the improvement I saw from the Aggies down the stretch heading into this bowl game. Yes, they went just 1-2 in their last three games, but they had a chance to win all three. They upset Auburn on the road 41-38 as a 23.5-point underdog. They lost to Missouri 27-34 at home, and the Tigers were the SEC East champs again this year. They also gave LSU a run for their money in a 17-23 home loss in the regular season finale.

Kevin Sumlin certainly has proven himself as a head coach in bowl games, going 3-1 in them. He is 2-0 at Texas A&M as well. The Aggies beat then-No. 12 Oklahoma 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl in 2012. Last year, they were disappointed to be playing in the Chick-fil-A Bowl against Duke in a clear letdown spot. They still managed to win that bowl game 52-48.

West Virginia just did not do that well this season in its biggest games. It lost to Alabama, Oklahoma, TCU, Texas and Kansas State, which were five of the six toughest games it faced this year. It did beat Baylor 41-27 at home, but that game was played in terrible conditions and the Bears just didn’t show up. The Mountaineers’ other six wins came against the likes of Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Maryland and Towson.

The Aggies boast another elite offense this season. They are putting up 34.4 points and 449.2 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play against opposing defenses that only give up 28 points per game, 397 yards per game and 5.7 per play. Kyle Allen has taken over the starting QB duties and has done a fine job despite playing some elite competition down the stretch. He is completling 61.1% of his passes for 1,028 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio in his last three games against Auburn, Missouri and LSU, which is no small feat.

West Virginia comes in playing some of its worst football of the season. It has lost three of its last four which includes home losses to TCU and Kansas State, and an ugly road loss at Texas 16-33. The Mountaineers’ only win in their last four games came against Iowa State in a game that was closer than the final score of 37-24 would indicate. This was a 3-point game with under 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Note that the Cyclones went 0-9 in the the Big 12 this year.

The Mountaineers are also 5-14 ATS in their last 19 vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 275 passing yards per game over the last three seasons. It is losing to these teams by an average of 24.2 points per game. West Virginia is 0-8 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992. The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last seven following a bye week.    These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing the Aggies.  Bet Texas A&M in the Liberty Bowl Monday.

20* Bengals/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -3.5

Both teams are playing extremely well coming into this one. The Steelers have won three in a row, while the Bengals have won five of their last six. However, I have no doubt that the Steelers are the better team and I look for them to put away the Bengals by four or more points Sunday night to get the cover.

Pittsburgh has really been on a mission this season. It was coming off two straight 8-8 campaigns where it fell short of the playoffs, but it has been determined to make the playoffs this year. Now that it has clinched a playoff spot, it wants more considering Cincinnati has taken over this division in recent years. This is the Steelers’ chance to prove that they are still the kings of the AFC North, and they get to do so at home, which is a huge advantage for them.

What Pittsburgh has done the last three weeks has been nothing short of remarkable. It has taken on three playoff contenders, and it has beaten them all by a touchdown or more. It started with a 42-21 win at Cincinnati on December 7th. The Steelers went on the road the next week and beat the Falcons 27-20. Then, last week, their No. 1 red zone defense came up huge as they limited the Chiefs to four field goals in a 20-12 home win.

Let’s take a look back at that 42-21 win by the Steelers over the Bengals. That game was every bit the blowout that the final score would indicate as the Steelers outgained the Bengals by 135 total yards for the game. Their offense racked up 543 total yards in the win. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns, while Le’Veon Bell had 235 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns.

That was one of many high-octane offensive performances from the Steelers this season. They are putting up 27.3 points per game while ranking 2nd in the NFL in total offense at 414.5 yards per game. Roethlisberger is having an MVP-caliber season, completing 67.4% of his passes for 4,635 yards with 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Bell has rushed for 1,341 yards and eight scores, while also catching 77 balls for 774 yards and three touchdowns.

The Bengals rely heavily on the run to move the football, averaging 135 rushing yards per game.  Well, the Steelers held them to just 86 yards on 21 carries in their first meeting of 2014.  The Steelers rank 6th in the NFL against the run, giving up just 99.3 yards per game on the season, making this an excellent matchup for them.  Andy Dalton is going to have to try and beat them, and I don't believe he's capable of doing it.

While the Bengals have the better record than the Steelers at 10-4-1 compared to 10-5, there’s no question that when you look at the numbers, you find that the Steelers are the better team.  That will show up on the field again Sunday. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 60.9 yards per game. Cincinnati ranks just 20th in yardage differential, actually getting outgained by 11.5 yards per game.

Keep in mind that the Bengals will be working on a short week since they played the Broncos on Monday Night Football in Week 16. That’s another advantage the Steelers have coming into this one.  Also, Andy Dalton has been battling the flu all week and has missed practice time as a result.  The flu has also kept tight end Jermaine Gresham and defensive backs Terence Newman and Reggie Nelson out of practice.  All four guys are expected to play, but missing practice time on a short week like this is big, especially for Dalton.

Plays against road teams (CINCINNATI) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 56-24 (70%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (CINCINNATI) – off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five years.

The Steelers are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.  These three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing Pittsburgh.  Take the Steelers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Thunder/Mavericks UNDER 211.5

The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder square off Sunday in a game that I look to be very low-scoring in comparison to the total set of 211.5 points.  As a result, I'll back the UNDER believing the oddsmakers have set the bar too high for this game.

Since the Mavericks traded for Rajon Rondo, they actually have gotten worse offensively, but have been better on defense.  That was expected considering Rondo doesn't have the best offensive game outside of his ability to pass the ball, but he is one of the better defenders for his position in the NBA.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was how low-scoring these games have been between the Mavs and Thunder in recent meetings.  In their last 16 meetings, they have finished with 208 or fewer combined points 13 times.  The only three times they didn't combine for 208 or less, those games went into overtime. 

Those three were tied 111-111, 105-105, and 98-98 at the end of regulation.  So, not counting overtime, Oklahoma City and Dallas have combined for 210 or fewer points in 15 of their last 16 meetings.  That makes for a 15-1 system backing the under pertaining to tonight's total set of 211.5 points.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Rams +13

This is a massive number and if you are going to play this game, you certainly should be siding with the Rams and the 13 points. Yes, the Seahawks are playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs and the No. 1 seed, but that’s also the reason they are laying so many points. Oddsmakers tend to overvalue teams with a lot to play for because the know the betting public tends to back these teams.

The St. Louis Rams would love nothing more than to pull off the upset and to end the Seahawks’ chances of getting home field. With the way they have been playing lately, they certainly are capable of hanging with the Seahawks. They have gone 3-3 in their last six games overall with wins over the Broncos, Raiders and Redskins. Two of their three losses came by 3 and 6 points to San Diego and Arizona, respectively.

Sure, they lost by 10 to the Giants last week, but they were clearly looking ahead to this game, which is why I was on the Giants +6.5 last week.  It was a hangover spot from their loss to Arizona the previous week, and it was a lookahead spot to this game against Seattle.  Plus, the Giants are playing great football right now having won three straight and having scored 24 or more points in five straight.  So, that 10-point loss is not as bad as it looks when you factor everything in.

Plus, the Rams have already proven they can hang with the Seahawks. They did just that back on October 19th as they pulled off the 28-26 upset at home despite being 6.5-point underdogs. Tre Mason rushed for 85 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries to lead the way offensively. The defense held Marshawn Lynch to just 53 rushing yards on 18 carries in the win.

This St. Louis defense has been unreal here of late. It has not allowed a touchdown in three of its past four games overall. It beat Oakland 52-0 at home, Washington 24-0 on the road, and lost to Arizona 6-12 at home while limiting the Cardinals to just four field goals in the loss. I know last week’s performance against the Giants was not good defensively, but again, the Rams were looking ahead to this game.

Seattle is coming off a very gratifying win at Arizona last week by a final of 35-6. That game was for first place in the NFC West, and with the win, the Seahawks now control their own destiny. I know they still have a lot to play for this week, but the Seahawks are also in a potential letdown spot here after that big win over Arizona.

It’s going to be very hard for them to match the intensity they played with in that game, and also difficult to live up to the expectations they have created for themselves from oddsmakers after going 5-0 ATS in their last five games coming in.  I really like fading teams who are on extended ATS win streaks because almost every time they are overvalued by oddsmakers once these streaks reach four, five games.  The betting public just cannot get enough of the Seahawks right now.

Plays against home favorites (SEATTLE) – revenging a loss against opponent, after two consecutive covers as a favorite are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Seahawks are certainly overvalued due to their recent play and the perception that they’ll be out for revenge, and this trend just goes to show how profitable it has been to fade teams in this spot over the last 10 years.

St. Louis is 10-1 ATS versus good offensive teams that average at least 5.65 yards per play in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Rams are 7-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last three years. St. Louis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine vs. good rushing teams that average at least 4.5 yards per carry. The Rams are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 following a double-digit loss. The Seahawks are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 following a blowout win by 21 or more points against a division rival.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on South Dakota State +13.5

I am a huge backer of the Northern Iowa Panthers this season.  I have backed them with a ton of success up to this point, winning with them three times in their wins over Iowa (56-44) as 3.5-point dogs, Denver (65-55) as 3-point favorites, and their loss to VCU (87-93) as 7.5-point dogs.

So, I have backed them in three straight games coming in, winning all three times.  However, I now believe they are overvalued as 13.5-point favorites against a very good South Dakota State team, and it's time to fade them. 

I also believe this is a huge letdown spot for the Panthers as they are coming off a massive win over in-state rival Iowa last time out.  It's also a lookahead spot for UNI because their conference season starts on January 1st, and they will not show up for this final non-conference game.  They won't be motivated enough to win by 14-plus points.

Even if Northern Iowa does show up, I have no doubt that South Dakota State is good enough to give them a run for their money in this one.  The Jack Rabbits are 9-4 this season after going 19-13 last year.  They brought back two of their best players from that team in Cody Larson (13.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg last year) and Jake Bittle (8.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg).

Larson (13.5 ppg, 7.1 rpg this year) and Bittle (9.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.7 apg) have picked up right where they left off last year.  Deondre Parks (14.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg) has been their best player, and George Marshall (12.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg) has also been a key contributor to the starting lineup.

I've been impressed with South Dakota State even in their losses.  They only lost 67-69 at Buffalo as 3.5-point underdogs.  They also played a very good Utah team tough on the road as 17.5-point dogs, getting the cover in a 66-80 loss.  Also, their road wins over both Saint Louis (62-55) as 3.5-point dogs and Utah State (68-65) as 5-point dogs were very impressive to me.  Those four performances show me that the Jack Rabbits are capable of hanging with the Panthers, especially in this tough spot for UNI.

South Dakota State is 16-3 ATS in its last 19 games versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game.  UNI doesn't play a style that lends to blowouts because they eat up shot clocks and play in the half court.  The Jack Rabbits are 7-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game over the last two seasons.  SDSU is 7-0 after playing two consecutive games as an underdog over the last three years.  Bet South Dakota State Sunday.

25* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Giants -2.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Eagles. They just had their playoff hopes crushed with a 24-27 upset loss at Washington last week as 7-point favorites. I don’t expect them to show up at all this week after coming to the realization that they won’t be playing in the postseason. However, the Eagles’ poor play extends back over the past three weeks as well, so it wasn’t just that loss to the Redskins that did them in.

Indeed, the Eagles have now lost three straight games coming in. They lost 14-24 at home to Seattle on December 7th in a game what was nowhere near as close as the final score would indicate. They were outgained by 301 total yards in that loss to the Seahawks. They also lost 27-38 at home to the Cowboys on December 14th and were outgained by 70 yards in that contest as well. Last week’s loss to the Redskins was just the icing on the cake for them.

New York, on the other hand, comes in playing its best football of the season. This is the second straight year that the Giants have finished strong following a slow start. Last year, they opened 0-6 and wound up finishing 7-9. They are doing the same this year as they have won three straight following a seven-game losing streak.

The Giants have outgained four of their last five opponents, and their solid play extends back six weeks. It started with back to back close losses to the 49ers (10-16) and Cowboys (28-31). They also lost to the Jaguars 24-25 on the road after blowing a 21-point lead in that game. They have turned those close losses into blowout victories each of the last three weeks.

The Giants won 36-7 at Tennessee on December 7th while outgaining the Titans by 195 total yards in the win. They topped Washington 24-13 at home on December 14th in another dominant defensive effort. The Giants then went into St. Louis as 6.5-point underdogs last week and came away with a 37-27 victory, outgaining the Rams by 127 total yards.

This New York offense has really hits its stride in the last five games and is hitting on all cylinders now in this new West Coast system. It has scored at least 24 points in five straight, averaging 29.8 points and 389.0 yards per game during this span. It culminated in the 37-point, 514-yard output against the Rams last week. Coming in, the Rams had not allowed a touchdown in three of their four previous games, so that was no small feat.

Odell Beckham Jr. is setting all kind of records for the numbers he has put up in just 11 games. He now has 79 receptions for 1,120 yards and 11 touchdowns. This guy just cannot be stopped as he has at least six receptions and at least 90 receiving yards in each of his last eight games, including 130-plus yards and a combined six touchdowns over the last three weeks. As a result, Eli Manning has now put up impressive numbers on the season. He is completing 64.1% of his passes for 3,981 yards and 29 touchdowns against 13 interceptions.

Philadelphia backers will point to the Eagles’ 27-0 shutout win over the Giants back on October 12th as a reason to back them again in the rematch. Well, not only do the Giants want some serious revenge from that loss, they certainly were not at full strength in that game. Victor Cruz got hurt in the early stages and the offense just couldn’t get going without him. The offense has found a way without Cruz now due to the emergence of Beckham and is hitting on all cylinders.

The Giants should have plenty of success offensively against a Philadelphia defense that has given up 24.9 points and 366.9 yards per game this season. The Eagles hare just 3-4 on the road this year, where they are giving up 36.9 points per game. The Giants are playing really well defensively right now, giving up just 15.7 points per game in their last three, and 306.0 yards per game in their last four.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NY GIANTS) – revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS since 1983. Plays against any team (PHILADELPHIA) – off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 24-6 (80%) ATS since 1983.

New York is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games revenging a blowout loss by 21 points or more. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 17. The Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Week 17 games. New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five December games. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four December games. The wheels have fallen off of the Philadelphia bus, and they won’t be coming back on this week.

20* NFL Line Mistake GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Redskins +6

I was on the Redskins last week in their 27-24 upset win over the Eagles. I’ll be on them again this week as they continue to show tremendous value as 6-point home underdogs to the Cowboys in this one. The Cowboys are being overvalued here for a number of reasons, but mainly because they still could earn a first-round bye and possibly home-field advantage in the playoffs if everything breaks their way.

I also look for the Cowboys to have a letdown this week even with a first-round bye at stake. That’s because they are simply happy to be in the postseason after going 8-8 each of the last three seasons and missing the playoffs. They had a chance in Week 17 to get in each of the last three years, but lost in the finale in all three. They obviously would rather have a first-round bye, but the Redskins aren’t just going to lay down for them.

Also, the Cowboys know deep down inside that their chances of getting a first-round bye are slim to none.  They either need both Seattle and Arizona to lose this week to get one.  Or, they need the Packers/Lions game to end in a tie.  Well, the Seahawks are 13-point favorites over the Rams and likely aren't going to lose.  Obviously, the chances of the Packers/Lions game ending in a tie are slim to none.  So, Dallas is essentially locked into the No. 3 seed, and would be wise to rest its starters given the chance knowing it will have to play next week.

Washington has been an excellent team to back against division opponents despite its struggles as a team in recent years. It always shows up to play the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants, and this year has been no exception. In fact, the Redskins are 2-1 against the Eagles and Cowboys this year, with their only loss coming by a final of 34-37 as 4-point road underdogs at Philadelphia back in Week 3.

The Redskins beat the Cowboys 20-17 (OT) on the road back on October 27th. They racked up 409 total yards on the Cowboys even with Colt McCoy as the starting quarterback in the win. They were 9-point underdogs in that game. Well, if you adjust for home-field advantage, they should only be 3-point underdogs in the rematch. Instead, they are 6-point dogs, which is giving up three full points of value while crossing the key numbers of 3, 4 and 6 along the way.

Another reason the Cowboys are overvalued in this game is because they are coming off a blowout win over the Colts last week by a final of 42-7. Well, while that 35-point win looks good, it really wasn’t that impressive when you consider the state of mind the Colts were in. The Colts had just clinched their division the previous week, and they had no shot of earning a first-round bye even if they won out. So, they didn’t show up, and they rested T.Y. Hilton in the loss. I knew they weren’t going to show up, which is why I was on the Cowboys last week.

If you simply looked at the numbers alone and not the records, you’ll find that the Redskins aren’t really that much worse of a team than the Cowboys. In fact, Dallas ranks 8th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 26.5 yards per game. Washington ranks 16th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 5.7 yards per game. The Redskins have the worst record of all the top 18 teams in yardage differential, and it’s not even close. Keep in mind that the Cowboys are aided in this category by outgaining the lifeless Colts by 148 total yards last week.

Washington has played Dallas extremely tough in recent years. Indeed, the Redskins are 3-2 straight up in their last five meetings with the Cowboys, and a dominant 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Dallas has only beaten Washington by more than 3 points once in the last nine meetings. The underdog has brought home the bacon at an alarming rate in this matchup throughout the years. The dog is 25-8 ATS in the last 33 meetings.

"In order to come out here our last game of the year and compete with Dallas and beat Dallas would mean a lot just to see where we are ending the season on two huge victories against two quality opponents and two archrivals," head coach Jay Gruden said.

Robert Griffin III is also out to prove that he is the future of the franchise at quarterback.  He did a fine job last week in completing 16 of 23 passes for 220 yards with one interception in the win over the Eagles.  Griffin III is still probably the best quarterback for this team, and I like the fact that he'll continue playing motivated football this week.  As will the rest of the Redskins, who simply do not like the Cowboys and will be trying to steal this win from them Sunday.

Plays against road favorites (DALLAS) – an average defensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after allowing 9 points or less last game are 28-7 (80%) ATS since 1993. Dallas is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 road games after covering the spread in three of its last four games coming in. The Cowboys are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 road games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more. The Cowboys are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games off a blowout win by 28 or more points. Dallas is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Redskins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Buffalo Bills +5

The Patriots have absolutely nothing to play for, which is why this line is so small. In my opinion, they shouldn’t even be favored over the Bills given the situation. The Patriots have already clinched home-field advantage in the AFC after their win over the Jets last week. They also needed the Broncos to lose to the Bengals, which happened for them. Now, it would be foolish for Bill Belichick to risk the health of his starters as they look ahead toward the postseason.

With nothing on the line in terms of postseason positioning this week, Belichick said he'll "do whatever is best for the team" when it comes to resting some of his regulars. Reports have surfaced that tight end Rob Gronkowski could rest, and it's unclear if receiver Julian Edelman, offensive lineman Dan Connolly or running back LeGarrette Blount will play after each sat out last week with injuries.

"With the (first-round bye), you realize we're going to have a little time to rest up," quarterback Tom Brady said. "We just want to go out and play well and see if we can string together as many good plays as possible."  That sounds like a guy who knows he's only going to be in there for a series or two.

Even if Belichick plays his starters more than I’m expecting, I have no doubt that those players out there on the field could care less about winning this football game. These players are already looking ahead to who they are going to play in the postseason. Belichick will do his preaching about how it will be important to stay sharp, and he’s right, but it’s just so easy to not be sharp knowing that there’s no consequence if you aren’t.

Meanwhile, Buffalo has every reason to be motivated for a win Sunday despite the fact that it was eliminated from the playoffs last week. The Bills can do something that no other Buffalo team has done since 2004, which is finish a season with a winning record. They will also be out for revenge on the Patriots to try and end this six-game losing streak in the series, and a 13-game losing streak in Foxborough. There are so many positives this team could take away from a win Sunday as they look ahead to next season.

"The game means a lot to me. We're going to play the players that we feel give us the best chance to win," Head coach Doug Marrone said. "That's just the way that I'm wired and that's my responsibility to the team. We all have a responsibility to each other and I have to make those decisions each week."

This Buffalo defense is a big reason why I’ll recommend backing them Sunday. They rank 4th in the league in total defense at 315.7 yards per game, and 4th in scoring defense at 18.7 points per game. This stop unit has played at an elite level for most of the season. In two of their last three games, the Bills held Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers to a combined 0-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. That’s no small feat, and it’s a sign that they can slow down this New England offense, too.

Kyle Orton continues to play well for this Buffalo offense. He has gone 6-5 as a starter this season and has been a huge reason for this team’s turnaround. Orton is completing 63.9% of his passes for 2,842 yards with 17 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the year. He has managed to get Sammy Watkins involved more than the quarterbacks before him. Watkins has 62 receptions for 925 yards and six scores this year, needing 75 more in this game to reach 1,000 as a rookie, which is mighty impressive.

Plays on any team (BUFFALO) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 64-32 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs or pick (BUFFALO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS since 1983. Buffalo is 13-1 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win 26.1 to 17.5 in this spot, or by an average of 8.6 points per game.  Take the Bills Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Pelicans/Bulls UNDER 202

This is my favorite total in an East vs. West battle in the NBA over the past seven days.  I look for a very low-scoring game between the New Orleans Pelicans and Chicago Bulls tonight.  The books have set the bar too high in this one as it's likely that neither team reaches 100 points.

Both of these teams play at pretty slow paces this season.  The Pelicans rank 21st in the league in pace at 95.1 possessions per game.  The Bulls rank 15th in pace at 95.8 possessions per contest.  Chicago remains a solid defensive team, ranking 8th in defensive efficiency at 101.9 points per 100 possessions allowed.

What really stood out to me about this game was how these teams have fared head-to-head in recent years.  The Bulls and Pelicans have combined for 194 or fewer points at the end of regulation in seven of their last eight meetings. 

They have combined for 167, 206, 183, 171, 194, 157, 162 and 185 points at the end of regulation in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of just 178.1 points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 202.

Chicago is 16-4 to the UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 10 seasons.  We're seeing an average combined score of 180.3 points per game in this spot.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Pelicans last five games overall.  The UNDER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Magic/Hornets UNDER 190.5

I believe the books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Hornets.  I look for both teams to struggle offensively in this one, which has been the case for both of these teams all year.

Orlando is putting up just 93.7 points per game this season while ranking 26th in the league in offensive efficiency at 98.9 points per 100 possessions.  Charlotte is scoring 95.8 points per game while ranking 25th in offensive efficiency at 99.4 points per 100 possessions.

What I really like about this play is that both teams like to play at a snail's pace.  Indeed, the Hornets rank 24th in pace at 94.5 possessions per game.  The Magic rank 23rd in pace at 94.7 possessions per contest. 

This game will be played in the half court with few fast break opportunities as both teams like to slow it down and feed their big men in Al Jefferson for the Hornets and Nikola Vucevic for the Magic.  They each try to get their big men a touch every possession down the floor, which eats up shot clocks and is very beneficial for under backers.

Orlando is 37-14 to the UNDER in its last 51 road games.  The Magic are 14-2 to the UNDER in their last 16 road games after having lost four of their last five games coming in.  Charlotte is 18-8 to the UNDER as a home favorites of 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Magic last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The UNDER is 16-5-1 in Hornets last 22 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Penn State/Boston College Pinstripe Bowl Line Mistake on Penn State +3

The Penn State Nittany Lions may have the worse record this season than the Boston College Eagles, but I believe they are the better team in this one. The Nittany Lions are much better than their 6-6 record would indicate. First-year coach James Franklin will certainly benefit from having all this extra bowl preparation as this young team should come out with their best performance of the season in the Pinstripe Bowl.

I know Penn State went just 2-6 within the Big Ten, but it played one of the toughest schedules in the conference. It also came out on the short end of the stick in so many close games this year. Indeed, four of Penn State’s six losses came by a touchdown or less. It lost on the road to both Michigan (13-18) and Illinois (14-16), while also falling to Maryland (19-20) at home.

However, it was the loss to Ohio State that shows what the Nittany Lions are capable of. They took the Buckeyes to overtime where they eventually lost 24-31 as 14-point underdogs. They held Ohio State to just 293 total yards in the loss, which is no small feat. As you know, the Buckeyes are playing in the four-team playoff as one of the top four teams in the country.

Penn State has played tremendous defense all season, and I like backing the better defensive team in bowl games. It is giving up just 17.7 points and 269.9 yards per game this season to rank 2nd in the entire country in total defense. It has been dominant against both the run and the pass, but its run defense is why it will pull the upset against the Eagles in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Boston College is a power-running team that rushes for 252 yards per game while only throwing for 132 yards per game. Well, not many teams are better equipped to stop the Eagles than the Nittany Lions. Penn State gives up just 85 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry against teams that average 161 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. So, the Nittany Lions are holding their opponents to 76 yards per game and 1.7 per carry below their season averages.

The Eagles really have not fared well in bowl games at all here of late, and a lot of that has to do with their offense being so predictable, which is the case again this year. Boston College is 0-4 in its last four bowl games, not once topping 19 points, and averaging 14.8 points per game in the four losses. That includes a 19-42 loss to Arizona last year in which it was outgained by 178 total yards. The Nittany Lions are happy to be here as their last bowl game appearance was in 2011.

I believe the Eagles are getting too much respect from the books here due to their solid finish to the season where they nearly upset Florida State and beat Syracuse 28-7. Conversely, Penn State is not getting any respect due to its poor finish where it lost at Illinois 14-16 and to Michigan State 10-34 at home in its final two games. Well, the Nittany Lions held the Spartans to just 298 total yards, including 118 rushing on 41 carries as that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.

The Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven December games. Boston College is 1-5 ATS in its last six bowl games. The Eagles are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The Nittany Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Penn State is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games on grass. The Nittany Lions are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Penn State in the Pinstripe Bowl Saturday.

20* Miami/South Carolina Independence Bowl BLOWOUT on South Carolina +3.5

Both of these teams had visions of winning their respective conferences coming into the season. Both fell flat on their faces. I don’t believe there is a motivational advantage one way or the other in this game because they both envisioned being in better bowl games coming into the year. So, it comes down to which team is better on the field, and I believe that team is South Carolina.

Yes, the Gamecocks did not live up to expectations. They had won 11 games in three consecutive seasons heading into 2014. While they underachieved on the field, I have no doubt that’s the reason they are undervalued here. They should not be the underdogs in this game given that they are the more talented team and this extra bowl prep could allow their young talent to finally shine through.

South Carolina had to work pretty hard just get make a bowl game as it found itself as an underdog in two of its final three games of the season needing two wins to get in. It became bowl eligible after beating Florida 23-20 on the road as a 6.5-point underdog, and then South Alabama at home 37-12 as a 24-point favorite.

After clinching bowl eligibility, it did not play well in a season-ending 17-35 loss at Clemson, but the Tigers had a healthy Deshaun Watson at quarterback for that game, and he makes all the difference for them.  Plus, Clemson was motivated to put an end to a 5-game losing streak to South Carolina in the series.  The Gamecocks did not want that game as much as the Tigers, and it was reflected in the final score.

Miami pretty much fell apart at the end of the season and I question its motivation coming in because of it. It lost each of its final three games, and the last two were very concerning. The Hurricanes went into Virginia and lost 13-30 as 4-point favorites, and then lost at home to Pittsburgh 23-35 as 11-point favorites. Their defense is not playing well at all right now, allowing an average of 31.7 points per game in their last three.

There’s no question that South Carolina played the tougher schedule this season since it plays in the stacked SEC. I believe that works in its favor coming into this game getting to play a middle-of-the-pack ACC team that isn’t close to one of the best teams that it has played this season.

The Gamecocks have flourished outside of the SEC this season, going 3-1 with their only loss coming on the road to Clemson.  They have beaten three bowl teams this year in ECU, Florida and Georgia as well.  While those three wins are impressive, it's the losses that these teams had really stand out to me.  It’s clear that South Carolina is the better team when you look at the losses.

Four of South Carolina’s six losses came by 7 points or less as it went just 2-4 in games decided by that margin. Five of Miami’s six losses came by 10 points or more. It lost by 18 to Louisville, by 10 to Nebraska, by 11 to Georgia Tech, by 17 to Virginia, and by 12 to Pittsburgh. While the Gamecocks are nowhere near as bad as their 6-6 record suggests, the Hurricanes are every bit as bas as their 6-6 record given these results.

Steve Spurrier has certainly coached up his players the last three years in bowl games. They are 3-0 with wins over then-No. 21 Nebraska, then-No. 19 Michigan and then-No. 19 Wisconsin. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, have lost each of their last four bowl games. Spurrier believes his players will be ready for Miami, too.

“We have played Nebraska, Michigan and Wisconsin the last three years. Miami is certainly right in that category with those schools and I think it will certainly get the attention of our players and hopefully we’ll play at our best,” said Spurrier.

Miami is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a conference game. The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games. Miami is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games overall. The Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit home loss. The Gamecocks are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  Take South Carolina in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

15* Kentucky/Louisville Battle of Unbeatens on Louisville +6

No. 1 Kentucky (12-0) travels to face No. 4 Louisville (11-0) in a battle of unbeatens Saturday.  This is the most anticipated game of the 2014-15 college basketball season up to this point, and I believe it's going to live up to expectations as it goes right down to the wire.  I look for the Cardinals to pull off the upset, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.

This line has gotten out of control.  It opened as a pick 'em and has been bet up to Kentucky -6 now, a full six-point move.  The value is clearly with the home underdog Cardinals in this one now as the betting public continues to pound the Wildcats.

Kentucky is the single-most overvalued team in the country right now because they continue to blow teams out, but they have been feasting on an easy schedule.  Indeed, 10 of Kentucky's 12 games have been at home this year, while the other two were on a neutral court.  This will be Kentucky's first true road game of the season, and I look for it to struggle.

Louisville is the real deal this year.  It has gone 11-0 up to this point with all 11 of its victories coming by 9 points or more.  That includes impressive wins over Minnesota (81-68), Ohio State (64-55) and Indiana (94-74).  Terry Rozier (16.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg), Montrezl Harrel (16.7 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Wayne Blackshear (13.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) and Chris Jones (12.3 ppg, 4.0 rpg) are four key returning players from last year's team.

These four will be out for revenge from Louisville's 69-74 loss to Kentucky last year in the NCAA Tournament.  That game was played on a neutral court obviously, but home-court advantage has been huge in this series here of late.  Indeed, the home team has won five of the last six meetings between Louisville and Kentucky.

Kentucky is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games after allowing a shooting percentage of 33% or less in their previous game.  The Wildcats are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  Kentucky is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games.  The Wildcats are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series.  Bet Louisville Saturday.

15* VA Tech/Cincinnati Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Virginia Tech +3

While the Virginia Tech Hokies have the worse record in this matchup at 6-6 compared to 9-3 for Cincinnati, I believe they are the better team. The only reason they have a worse record is because they play in a much tougher conference in the ACC. They played the much more difficult schedule this year as well, having to face three bowl teams out of conference.

Those three teams were Ohio State, East Carolina and Western Michigan. The Hokies went 2-1 against those teams which is rather impressive. They beat Ohio State 35-21 on the road to hand the Buckeyes their only loss of the season. They also topped Western Michigan 35-17 at home, while losing a close one to ECU 21-28.

The Hokies fought their way to a bowl bid with four grueling games down the stretch that were all decided by 4 points or less. Ultimately, they beat Duke 17-16 on the road and Virginia 24-20 at home to keep their 22-year bowl streak alive. They earned their way to a bowl game, so you can bet that they are going to be pumped up to be playing in one this year, and to bounce back from an ugly loss to a very good UCLA team in the bowl last season.

Cincinnati comes in overvalued due to having won seven straight games coming in. The betting public is going to be all over this team because of the way they finished the season, but they did their damage mostly against a soft schedule. Five of their wins came against teams with losing records, while the other two both came at home against ECU and Houston in nail-biters by a combined 15 points.

There are three blowout losses that the Bearcats suffered that I just cannot get out of my head. They lost by 22 at Ohio State, by 27 at home to Memphis, and by 21 at Miami. Only one of Virginia Tech’s six losses this season came by double-digits as five of them came by a touchdown or less. That’s how close the Hokies were to having a much better record this year as they went just 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less.

While Cincinnati does have the better offense in this one, I tend to like to back teams with the better defense in bowl games, and it’s not even close between these teams. Virginia Tech gives up just 20.4 points and 331.7 yards per game to rank 17th in the country in total defense. It is holding opponents to 9.4 points and 69 yards per game below their season averages.

Cincinnati has been atrocious on this side of the football. It is giving up 447.2 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play against opponents that only average 390 yards per game and 5.6 per play. The Bearcats rank 104th in the country in total defense. The Hokies will find plenty of success offensively against this soft Cincinnati defense.

Plays on any team (VIRGINIA TECH) – average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPR) after 7+ games, after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hokies give up just 3.9 yards per carry this season, while the Bearcats allow 4.8 per carry.

Virginia Tech is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 road games off a win by 6 points or less. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. The Bearcats are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last seven bowl games. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series.  Bet Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia 76ers +14

The Portland Trail Blazers are in the ultimate letdown spot here tonight.  I look for them to fail to bring the kind of effort to the court it's going to take to put away the pesky Philadelphia 76ers by more than 14 points in this one as a result.

Portland is coming off a four-game road trip against New Orleans, San Antonio, Houston and Oklahoma City.  It went an impressive 3-1 on that trip that included a pair of overtime wins over both the Spurs and Thunder.  It's simply going to be hard for them to be motivated in their first game back home following that huge road trip against the West's elite.

The 76ers have won back-to-back road games coming in.  They went into Orlando and won 96-88 as 8.5-point underdogs on December 21st, and then went into Miami and won 91-87 as 7.5-point dogs on December 23rd.  In fact, the 76ers have played their best basketball on the road this season as all four of their wins have come away from home.

The 76ers have played the Blazers very tough here in recent meetings.  Indeed, they have only lost by more than 10 points once in their last 12 meetings with the Blazers, making for an 11-1 system when factoring in this 14-point spread.  They lost 104-114 at home to the Blazers as 13-point dogs in their first meeting of 2014-15.  They also won 101-99 in Portland as 12-point dogs in their final meeting of 2013-14.

Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams that make 36% or more of their attempts this season.  It is only losing by 4.6 points per game against these teams.  The 76ers are 79-49 ATS in their last 128 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. 

Portland is 0-10 ATS in hits last 10 home games after playing three consecutive games as an underdog.  It is losing in these spots by an average of 10.6 points per game.  This trend just goes to show that the Blazers tend to let down at home following a tough stretch of games against really good teams.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Pelicans UNDER 201.5

Greg Popovich was extremely frustrated with his team's performance on Christmas Day in a 106-114 loss to Oklahoma City.  He voiced his frustration in the media, and I look for his team to respond tonight.  Their effort will be at an all-time high, and that will show up on the defensive end more than anything.

That 220 combined point performance last night is a big reason for this inflated line, but it's also due to the fact that the Spurs have gone over the total in five of their last six.  Well, two of those were triple-overtime games against the Blazers and Grizzlies.  They were tied with the Grizzlies 92-92 at the end of regulation, and tied with the Blazers 97-97 at the end of regulation.  If not for overtime, they'd be 3-3 to the under in their last six.

The Spurs are still one of the best defensive teams in the league this season, and that will really show tonight.  They rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 100.7 points per 100 possessions.  Both the Spurs and Pelicans prefer to play at slower paces than league average.  In fact, they are both tied for 19th in pace at 95.1 possessions per game.

What really stood out to me about this under was how low-scoring these games have been between the Spurs and Pelicans.  Indeed, they have combined for 199 or fewer points in each of their last four meetings.  They have combined for 199, 176, 197 and 196 points in those four meetings, respectively.  That's a combined average of 192.0 points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than tonight's posted total of 201.5.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SAN ANTONIO) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 37-12 (75.5%) over the last five seasons.  San Antonio is 91-61 to the UNDER in its last 152 when revenging a loss to an opponent as a home favorite.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Pelicans last four games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on UCF -2

What the UCF Knights (9-3, 7-1 AAC) have done this year to get back on top of the AAC standings is absolutely amazing. They lost their star quarterback in Blake Bortles, who was the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft this offseason. Many expected them to take a big step back after going 12-1 last year and beating Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, but that just has not been the case.

After opening the season 0-2 with losses to Penn State and Missouri, it seemed as though they were taking a big step back. However, they have won nine of 10 games since, which includes a 3-0 record against bowl teams. They beat Houston 17-12 as 2.5-point road underdogs, beat BYU 31-24 as 2.5-point home favorites, and beat East Carolina 32-30 as 6.5-point road underdogs. Wins against those three teams are no small feats. UCF is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall as well. Somehow, this team continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

The reason the Knights have had staying power this season is because of their defense. They are giving up just 17.9 points per game while ranking 3rd in the country in total defense at 282.8 yards per game. They have really stepped up their defensive game of late in allowing 44 total points in their last four games overall, which is an average of 11.0 points per game. That even includes the 30 points they gave up to ECU, which was actually a pretty good showing considering ECU ranks in the top five in the country in total offense this season.

While the defense carried the load all season, the UCF offense actually came around in the second half behind the play of sophomore quarterback Justin Holman. The Knights scored 29 or more points in five of their final six games, including 32 points and 422 total yards in the 32-30 win over ECU in the season finale. Holman is completing 59.0% of his passes for 2,661 yards with 20 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on the year, while also rushing for a trio of scores.

NC State (7-5, 3-5 ACC) is way too inconsistent of a team to trust in this bowl game. It has played good against poor competition and bad against good competition. Indeed, the Wolfpack are 6-0 against non-bowl teams this season, but just 1-5 against bowl teams with all five losses coming by double-digits. Their only win over a bowl team came in the season finale in their rivalry with UNC. The Tar Heels simply did not show up for that game as they became bowl eligible with an upset win over Duke the week before.

The Wolfpack suffered some very ugly losses to fellow bowl teams. Their five double-digit losses were a 41-56 loss to Florida State, a 41-0 loss to Clemson, a 30-14 loss to Boston College, an 18-30 loss to Louisville, and a 23-56 loss to Georgia Tech. I believe the Knights rank right up there with those five teams that the Wolfpack lost to all by double-digits.

This is also a good matchup for the Knights. The Wolfpack rely heavily on the run, averaging 206 rushing yards per game compared to just 196 passing. Well, the Knights have been suffocating against the run this season. They give up just 97 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.

The location of this bowl game gives the Knights a huge home-field advantage as well. It will be played in St. Petersburg, Florida, which is obviously the home state of Central Florida. There’s no question that the Knights will have more fans in attendance than the Wolfpack in this one, which will help keep the team focused and motivated to play well in front of this crowd.

NC State is 9-22 ATS in its last 31 games off a road win against a conference rival. UCF Is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. The Knights are 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

UCF is 8-0 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons. The Knights are 10-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road over the last two years. UCF is 6-0 ATS in its last six games off a road win over a conference rival. The Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Knights.  Bet UCF in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

20* Warriors/Clippers Side & Total Parlay on Los Angeles -2/UNDER 218

I am siding with the Clippers and the UNDER tonight in the finale of five games on Christmas Day.  I look for them to beat the Warriors in what will be a high-scoring game, but not nearly as high-scoring as anticipated with this total set at a ridiculous 218 points.

I have a couple different reasons as to why I'm backing the Clippers.  The first comes in the fact that they will be motivated following back-to-back losses during a brutal 4-games-in-5-days stretch.  They lost three of those four games by a combined 13 points and easily could have won all four.  Their three losses all came on the road.

The Clippers are also way undervalued coming into this game after failing to cover the spread in five straight and seven of their last eight.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them right now, which is why they are only 2-point home favorites.  That's absurd considering the Clippers are 11-3 at home this season where they are outscoring teams by 7.4 points per game.

This play is also a fade of the Warriors, who could not be more overvalued right now due to their 23-4 start that has them in first place in the Western Conference.  I don't believe the Warriors are the best team in the West, they have simply been on a hot streak that is not going to continue.  That showed in their 105-115 loss at the Lakers on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.

Also, home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series, especially here of late.  The home team has won five straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  Dating back further, the home team is 13-2 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  That is more than enough reason to lay this short number on the Clips.

The biggest reason to back the UNDER tonight is the fact that this 218-point total is the highest in this series in the last 23 meetings.  In fact, the oddsmakers haven't set a total of higher than 215.5 points in any of those 23 games. 

The first time these teams played this season back on November 5th, the total was set at 211.5.  Yes, that game went over the total as the Warriors won 121-104 at home, but they shot 58.1% from the field and 15-of-25 (60%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

You also have to factor in that these teams hate each other after meeting in the first round of the playoffs last year in a series that went seven games.  So, they are obviously familiar with one another, plus these are division rivals.  PLays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - vs. division opponents, off a upset loss as a favorite are 45-22 (67.2%) since 1996.

When you look at the season averages for these two teams, it's also easy to see that this total has been inflated.  The Warriors are combining with their opponents for an average of 206.8 points per game this season.  The Clippers are combining with their foes for an average of 207.1 points per game.

Golden State is 31-10 to the UNDER in its last 41 road games after a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Warriors last four vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Clippers last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 36-16 in Clippers last 52 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 41-20 in Warriors last 61 games following a ATS loss.  The UNDER is 43-18 in Warriors last 61 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Clippers and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Warriors/Clippers Side & Total Parlay on Los Angeles -2/UNDER 218

I am siding with the Clippers and the UNDER tonight in the finale of five games on Christmas Day.  I look for them to beat the Warriors in what will be a high-scoring game, but not nearly as high-scoring as anticipated with this total set at a ridiculous 218 points.

I have a couple different reasons as to why I'm backing the Clippers.  The first comes in the fact that they will be motivated following back-to-back losses during a brutal 4-games-in-5-days stretch.  They lost three of those four games by a combined 13 points and easily could have won all four.  Their three losses all came on the road.

The Clippers are also way undervalued coming into this game after failing to cover the spread in five straight and seven of their last eight.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them right now, which is why they are only 2-point home favorites.  That's absurd considering the Clippers are 11-3 at home this season where they are outscoring teams by 7.4 points per game.

This play is also a fade of the Warriors, who could not be more overvalued right now due to their 23-4 start that has them in first place in the Western Conference.  I don't believe the Warriors are the best team in the West, they have simply been on a hot streak that is not going to continue.  That showed in their 105-115 loss at the Lakers on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.

Also, home-court advantage has been huge in this head-to-head series, especially here of late.  The home team has won five straight meetings between the Clippers and Warriors.  Dating back further, the home team is 13-2 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  That is more than enough reason to lay this short number on the Clips.

The biggest reason to back the UNDER tonight is the fact that this 218-point total is the highest in this series in the last 23 meetings.  In fact, the oddsmakers haven't set a total of higher than 215.5 points in any of those 23 games. 

The first time these teams played this season back on November 5th, the total was set at 211.5.  Yes, that game went over the total as the Warriors won 121-104 at home, but they shot 58.1% from the field and 15-of-25 (60%) from 3-point range.  That's not going to happen again.

You also have to factor in that these teams hate each other after meeting in the first round of the playoffs last year in a series that went seven games.  So, they are obviously familiar with one another, plus these are division rivals.  PLays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - vs. division opponents, off a upset loss as a favorite are 45-22 (67.2%) since 1996.

When you look at the season averages for these two teams, it's also easy to see that this total has been inflated.  The Warriors are combining with their opponents for an average of 206.8 points per game this season.  The Clippers are combining with their foes for an average of 207.1 points per game.

Golden State is 31-10 to the UNDER in its last 41 road games after a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Warriors last four vs. teams with a winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Clippers last six home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.  The UNDER is 36-16 in Clippers last 52 Thursday games.  The UNDER is 41-20 in Warriors last 61 games following a ATS loss.  The UNDER is 43-18 in Warriors last 61 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Clippers and the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Lakers/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 207.5

I believe the books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls tonight.  I look for points for the Lakers to be hard to come by against one of the league's top defenses, and I expect this to be a very low-scoring game in the end as a result.

What really stood out to me when I looked into this game was the head-to-head history of the Lakers and Bulls.  These teams always seem to bring their best efforts defensively when they face one another, and that will be the case against on Christmas Day.

Indeed, the Lakers and Bulls have combined for 202 or fewer points in each of their last nine meetings with the UNDER going 7-2 in those contests.  Even that 202-point effort was an overtime game that was tied at 93-93 at the end of regulation last year.  Only 3 out of a possible 18 times in their last nine meetings has one of these teams scored at least 100 points.

The Lakers and Bulls have combined for 178, 202, 171, 178, 175, 172, 189, 183 and 201 points in their last nine meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 183.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.5.  As you can see, there's a ton of value in backing the UNDER as a result.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Bulls last seven vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings overall.  The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Chicago.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CMU/WKU Bahamas Bowl BLOWOUT on Western Kentucky -3.5

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (7-5, 4-4 C-USA) weren’t expected to do much this year with Bobby Petrino leaving for Louisville in the offseason. Well, they certainly exceeded expectations and proved that they were a very competitive team all year, even against some really good competition. I like their chances of covering this small 3.5-point spread in the Bahamas Bowl against the overmatched Central Michigan (7-5, 5-3 MAC).

Four of Western Kentucky’s five losses this season came by 8 points or less. The only exception was a bad loss to Louisiana Tech, which won the C-USA West division in a landslide. What really impressed me about the Hilltoppers were three of their wins against fellow bowl teams. Indeed, they beat Marshall (67-66) as a 23.5-point road underdog, beat Navy (36-27) as a 7.5-point road dog, and beat Bowling Green (59-31) as a 7-point home dog.

The Hilltoppers are playing their best football of the season coming into this bowl game as well. They have won four straight while going 3-1 ATS with their only non-cover coming against UTEP in a 35-27 win as a 9-point home favorite. They also beat Army 52-24 and UTSA 45-7 while going on the road and earning that 1-point win at 12-1 Marshall during this stretch.

Western Kentucky is going to light up the scoreboard in this one, and that’s a given. It is averaging 44.0 points per game while ranking 6th in the country in total offense at 527.8 yards per game. Its opponents are only allowing 30.3 points and 419 yards per game, so it is putting up roughly 14 points and 109 yards per game more than its opponents average giving up on the season.

Senior quarterback Brandon Doughty is the catalyst, completing 67.5 percent of his passes for 4,344 yards with 44 touchdowns and 10 interceptions this year.  This is the final game of his college career, so you know he is going to want to win it and will have his team focused.  Running back Leon Allen (1,490 yards, 12 TD, 5.8 per carry) is one of the most underrated backs in the country and gives this offense balance.

Another reason Doughty and company will be motivated is because they lost to Central Michigan 24-21 in their first-ever bowl in 2012.  There are several players who are on this team that played in that game, and they are going to want revenge.

"We do have a decent amount of our players who got an opportunity to play in that bowl game and unfortunately we did not come out on top," head coach Jeff Brohm said. "Our guys are excited about this matchup to play a team that beat us a couple years ago in a bowl game."

I have not been nearly as impressed with Central Michigan this season. Its seven wins have come against the likes of UT-Chattanooga, Purdue, Ohio, Northern Illinois, Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Miami Ohio with only one of those seven teams (NIU) making a bowl game this year. Four of its five losses have come by double-digits to Kansas (10-24), Syracuse (3-40), Toledo (28-42) and Western Michigan (20-32). It also lost at home to lowly Ball State (29-32) despite being a 9.5-point favorite.

The Chippewas simply do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Hilltoppers in this one. They are averaging just 25.2 points and 380.8 yards per game offensively against defenses that allow an average of 29.6 points and 405 yards per game.

There’s no denying that the Chippewas have been the better team defensively, but I expect the Hilltoppers to get close to their 44-point season average on offense, and the Chippewas won’t be able to score enough to counter it.  You also have to consider that the Hilltoppers have faced the much tougher schedule this year when looking at the numbers.

Central Michigan is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 vs. good rushing teams that average at least 4.75 yards per carry. Western Kentucky is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better. The Hilltoppers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games following two or more consecutive ATS wins. The Chippewas are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. Central Michigan is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games following an ATS loss.  Western Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in road games following two or more consecutive straight up wins as an FBS member.  Bet Western Kentucky in the Bahamas Bowl Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

The Orlando Magic come into this game highly motivated for a victory.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall, which has them way undervalued as the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  They should be laying more than two points to the Boston Celtics here.

Adding to their motivation is the fact that the Magic just lost to the Celtics on the road on December 17th less than a week ago.  So, they are going to be out for revenge in this rematch, and I look for them to get it now that they are finally healthy and at full strength.

After all, home-court advantage has been huge in this series here of late.  The home team has won each of the last four meetings between the Magic and Celtics, and I look for that trend to continue here tonight.

I also question the motivation and mental state of the Celtics right now.  They just traded away their best player in Rajon Rondo, and these players cannot feel comfortable about it knowing that Danny Ainge is still in full-blown rebuilding mode.

In their first game without Rondo, the Celtics were rolled at Miami 84-100 on Sunday.  They clearly were out of sync in that game without Rondo, and that 16-point loss is really bad when you consider that Miami was playing without Chris Bosh.

Boston is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games after covering the spread in three of its last four coming in.  The Magic are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Celtics are 3-7 on the road this season.  Roll with the Magic Tuesday.

20* NIU/Marshall Boca Raton Bowl No-Brainer on Northern Illinois +10

The Northern Illinois Huskies (11-2, 7-1 MAC) have been blessed to have a great dual-threat quarterback for several years now. As a result, they have made the MAC Championship Game in five consecutive seasons, winning three of them. Both Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch were here for the first four, and now it’s Drew Hare that’s continuing the tradition of superb quarterback play in 2014.

Hare leads a Northern Illinois offense that is putting up 32.2 points and 442.5 yards per game. He is completing 59.9 percent of his passes for 2,097 yards with a ridiculous 17-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio. He has also rushed for 850 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry. The Huskies rush for 253 yards per game and 5.2 per carry as a team.

The Huskies are clearly playing their best football of the season heading into this one. They have won seven straight coming in with three of their last four coming against bowl teams. They beat Toledo 27-24 at home on November 11th, Western Michigan 31-21 on the road on November 28th, and then Bowling Green 51-17 in the MAC Championship on December 5th.

While the offense is hitting on all cylinders, the defense really needs commended for the job that it has done this season, especially here of late. The Huskies are giving up a respectable 23.6 points and 382.9 yards per game this season. They have allowed 21 or fewer points in eight of their 13 games this season. They have given up 24 or fewer in six straight for an average of 19.0 per game to close out the season as well.

Marshall is a team that was way overvalued after a 9-0 start that saw it win almost every game in blowout fashion. Well, that start came against a very soft schedule. Indeed, each of the first eight games the Thundering Herd played were against teams that did not make a bowl game. As the schedule finally got tougher toward the end, it was evident that Marshall wasn’t as good as it was thought to be.

The Thundering Herd have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall as they have been way overvalued in each. They were 18-point favorites at UAB on November 22 and only won 23-18. They were 23.5-point home favorites against Western Kentucky on November 28th and lost 66-67. Then, they were 8.5-point home favorites against Louisiana Tech in the Conference USA Championship and only won 26-23.

Now, the Thundering Herd are again overvalued being asked to win by double-digits against a very good Northern Illinois team, which is way too much. The betting public looks at Marshall’s 12-1 record and assumes that it is a great team, when in reality it has simply benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country. The last three games show that the Thundering Herd aren’t an elite team, and NIU may be the best team that they have faced yet.

Marshall also had dreams of playing in a New Year's bowl game after its 11-0 start before that crushing loss to Western Kentucky.  Had it gone 13-0, it easily could have played a bowl game after the new year.  While this is still a nice bowl game, there's no question that the Thundering Herd would have been a lot more motivated had they gone 13-0 and gotten into a bigger bowl.  NIU will be the more motivated team in this one as a result.

Marshall fans have taken to social media to voice their displeasure over Marshall's decision to play Northern Illinois instead of a lower-tier, power-conference team in another league-affiliated bowl.  They were disappointed because the Herd have already played three MAC teams and no power-conference teams in their 2013 schedule.

"Any negativity towards that is, to me, an insult to these players, is an insult to this coach, is an insult to me and is an insult to this university," Marshall athletic director Hamrick said. Obviously, this is a distraction that the team must deal with, and I'm sure that several of the players feel the same way that they'd rather play a power-five team than a fourth team from the MAC.

NIU head coach Rod Carey could not sound more enthusiastic about playing in this game.  "You're going to have two conference champions going at it, it's an unbelievable matchup," Carey said. "We have a ton of respect for Marshall and what they have done this year."

Whoever stops the run better will have a great chance to win this game.  Well, Northern Illinois has given up an average of 2.8 per carry and 215 total yards rushing in its last two games.  Marshall, on the other hand, has given up 207.7 per game on the ground in its last three contests.  NIU ranks eighth in the FBS with 3,288 rushing yards on the season.

Northern Illinois is a perfect 6-0 ATS off a win by 21 or more points over the last two seasons. Marshall is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following a two-game home stand. Northern Illinois is 34-15 ATS in its last 49 vs. mistake-prone teams that average 60-plus penalty yards per game. The Huskies are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Bet Northern Illinois in the Boca Raton Bowl Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado +1.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are a team I circled as one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into 2014-15.  They returned four starters from last year's team that made the NCAA Tournament, and they didn't even enter the season in the Top 25.

While the Buffaloes do have three losses already, all three have come against quality competition in Wyoming, Georgia and Colorado State, and two of the three came in true road games.  I like what I've seen from this team in their last two contests. 

They beat Northern Colorado 93-68 as a 12-point home favorite and DePaul 82-68 as a 9-point favorite in the first game of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii.  I look for them to take down George Washington today as they should not be underdogs for this contest.

To no surprise, the four returning starters for the Buffaloes are their four leading scorers.  Asia Booker (15.3 ppg, 3.4 apg, 3.5 rpg) and Josh Scott (14.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 2.0 bpg) lead the way, while Xavier Johnson (13.9 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Wesley Gordon (7.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) have had big seasons up to this point as well.

George Washington owns an identical 7-3 record to Colorado.  This is a team that returned three starters from last year, but lost its top two scorers in Maurice Creek (14.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg) and Isaiah Armwood (12.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg).  The Colonials came into the season overvalued due to advancing to the second round of the NCAA Tournament last year.

The Colonials have gone just 3-4 ATS in all games this season, and they've lost to the best competition they have faced.  Their three losses came to Virginia, Seton Hall and Penn State, while their seven wins came against Grambling, Rutgers, Longwood, MD-Balt County, Charlotte, DePaul and Ohio.  They lost by 17 points to Virginia and by 13 to Penn State.

The Colonials are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.  George Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The Colonials are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  These three trends combine for an 18-2 system backing the Buffaloes.  Take Colorado Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks -4

The Dallas Mavericks are one of the best teams in the West at 20-8 this season.  They just got even stronger with the addition of Rajon Rondo a few days ago, who helped lead them to a 99-93 home win over San Antonio in his Dallas debut on Saturday. 

The Mavericks are showing excellent value here as only 4-point home favorites over the Atlanta Hawks Monday.  The Mavericks are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their second game in five days, which has given Rondo extra time to get used to playing on his new team.

Atlanta comes in way overvalued due to having won 12 of its last 13 games overall while going 10-3 ATS in the process.  The betting public is obviously all over them right now, especially after their back-to-back wins over Cleveland and Houston.  It's going to be very tough for them to live up to the massive expectations they have created for themselves from oddsmakers going forward, especially tonight.

Dallas has won five of its last eight meetings with Atlanta with all five of those victories coming by at least 5 points, and four by 8 points or more.  Two of Atlanta's last three wins against Dallas have come by a combined 5 points.  As a result, the Mavs are 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Hawks as well.

Atlanta has been dominating the Eastern Conference, but it has been a completely different story against the West.  The Hawks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 vs. Western Conference foes.  Dallas is 54-25 ATS in its last 79 games following an ATS loss.  The Mavericks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

20* Broncos/Bengals ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver -3

Both the Broncos and Bengals have a ton to play for right now, so I don’t think motivation will be an issue at all in this game. Denver wants to get at least a first-round bye and possibly home-field advantage in the AFC, while Cincinnati is trying to fend off both Baltimore and Pittsburgh for the AFC North Title. So, with motivation being a non-issue, this one will come down to which team is better on the field. There’s no question in my mind that team is the Broncos, and the numbers show it's not even close.

Denver ranks 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 91.3 yards per game. Its offense has remained explosive this season in averaging 29.1 points and 400.7 yards per game. But, the biggest different for this team compared to last year is the defense. The Broncos are only allowing 21.6 points and 309.4 yards per game to rank 4th in the entire NFL in total defense.

The Bengals are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. There’s no way they should be in first place in the division right now with the numbers they have put up. They rank 19th in yardage differential, actually getting outgained by 10.0 yards per game on the season despite their 9-4-1 record. They are one of only two teams in the NFL that ranks 19th or worse in yardage differential that currently has a winning record on the season. The Cardinals are the other, and they are also among the league’s most overrated.

Amazingly, Cincinnati has played just five teams with winning records this season. It is 2-3 in those five games with a couple wins over Baltimore by a combined 10 points. Its the losses that are troubling. The Bengals lost 27-0 to the Colts, 43-17 to the Patriots, and 42-21 to the Steelers. They are getting outscored by an average of 12.8 points per game in their five contests against teams with winning records this year. I believe the Broncos are the best team that they have faced yet.

This is a great matchup for the Broncos’ defense as well. The Bengals are a run-heavy team that averages 130 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Only one team in the league has been better at stopping the run than the Broncos. They rank 2nd in the league against the run in allowing just 71.6 yards per game and 3.4 per carry. They have held 10 of their last 11 opponents to less than 100 rushing yards, and nine of their last 11 to 74 or fewer on the ground.

Including the playoffs, the Bengals are 2-9 in prime-time games since 2011, the year Andy Dalton became the starting quarterback. That includes an 0-3 record in nationally televised postseason games, and a 2-6 mark in games played unopposed on Sunday, Monday and Thursday nights.  Dalton has just crumbled on the big stage, and he will again Monday night as he feels the pressure mounting.

Peyton Manning is 8-0 all-time against Cincinnati, including a 3-0 December record that’s highlighted by 10 touchdowns passes and no interceptions. The Broncos are 4-0 in night games this season, most recently winning in Kansas City 29-16.  Manning has proven he can handle the big stage and will put on another show Monday night.

Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 64% or better over the last three seasons. Denver is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games with a total set of 42.5 to 49 points. The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 December games. The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games following a win. The Bengals have lost their last two home games each by 21 points in a 3-24 loss to the Browns and that 21-42 loss to the Steelers.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -4

The Chicago Bulls (17-9) will be highly motivated for a win tonight as they welcome in Eastern Conference-leading Toronto (22-6) to the United Center Monday.  They will be out to prove that they are the best team in the East in this one.

Helping their cause is the fact that they are expected to be at nearly full strength for this one.  Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol, Taj Gibson and Derrick Rose are all listed as probable.  Meanwhile, Toronto remains without second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg).

The Raptors come in overvalued having won six straight games, all against teams with losing records.  They also come in extremely tired.  This will be the second of a back-to-back and the 6th game in 9 days for the Raptors, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.

Chicago has had two days' rest coming in after last playing on Friday, where it beat Memphis 103-97 on the road.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Rockets -3

The Houston Rockets have been waiting for this game since the playoffs.  This will be their first meeting with the Blazers since losing to them in the first round of the 2013-14 playoffs in six games.  There will be no questioning their motivation in this one, especially considering they have lost two straight coming in.

Portland comes in way overvalued after having won each of its last five games overall, including two wins against the defending champion Spurs, who were short-handed both times they faced the Blazers.  While the Blazers are one of the better teams in the West, they are simply getting too much respect here as short road underdogs.

All four of Portland's wins over Houston in the playoffs came by 7 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer.  Houston has still won seven of its last 12 meetings with Portland with all seven of those wins coming by 5 points or more, including five by double-digits.

Portland is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off a game where it was called for 13 or less fouls.  The Blazers are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 after playing two consecutive games as an underdog.  The Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Rockets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Houston is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Take the Rockets Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on UConn -7

The defending champion UConn Huskies have not gotten off to the start that they wanted at 4-4.  Due to this poor start, they are undervalued at this point of the season.  They certainly aren't as bad as their 4-4 record would indicate.

UConn has lost two games on buzzer-beating three points against Texas (54-55) and Yale (44-45).  Its other two losses came against two of the better teams in the country in West Virginia (68-78) and Duke (66-56).

I have been impressed with the Huskies in a couple of their wins with a 65-57 win over College of Charleston and a 75-64 triumph over Dayton, both on neutral courts.  While this game against Columbia is technically on a neutral court, there's no question the Huskies will have the home-court advantage since it's being played in Bridgeport, CT.

Columbia is a team that comes in overvalued due to its 6-3 start and its five returning starters.  Well, it lost one of those starters to a season-ending foot injury, and that was last year's leading scorer in Alex Rosenberg (16.0 ppg).

The Lions are getting too much respect from oddsmakers because they played Kentucky tough in a 10-point road loss as 26-point underdogs.  Well, that was the only quality opponent they have faced this season.  They have lost to both Stony Brook and Loyola-MD, while their six wins have come against Wagner, Lehigh, Farleigh Dickinsion, American, Bucknell and Hofstra.

The Huskies are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight off their slow start and their 10-point loss to Duke on December 18th.  Columbia last played on December 20th and will only have one day to prepare for UConn.  The Huskies have a big edge in rest and preparation coming into this one as a result.

UConn is 10-1 ATS after playing its last game as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Huskies are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last two years.  Columbia is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games following an ATS win.  UConn is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 neutral site games.  The Huskies are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games following a S.U. loss.  Take UConn Monday.

15* Colts/Cowboys Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas -3.5

Under normal circumstances, I believe this 3.5-point spread would be about perfect for these two teams as I view them as equals. Tack on 3 to 3.5 points to the Cowboys for home-field advantage, and this would be the right line. However, these aren’t normal circumstances, and as a result there is a ton of value in backing the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites here.

Dallas is going to show up fully determined for a win Sunday. It still hasn’t clinched a playoff spot, and if it wins out, it will win the NFC East. It even has a chance for home-field advantage because if it wins out and gets some help, it will win the tiebreaker. That’s why I’m not worried at all about the Cowboys possibly having a letdown following their big win over the Eagles last week.

There is no way in hell you should back the Colts (10-4) with the state they’ll be in mentally. They just clinched the AFC South last week with a win over the Texans. So, they are guaranteed a first-round home game. They have no shot at getting a first-round bye because they trail the Broncos (11-3) and Patriots (11-3) each by one game, and they lost to both of those teams to lose out on the tiebreaker.

So, the Colts would need to win out and have either the Broncos or Patriots lose out to get a first-round bye. They know that the chances of either of those teams losing out are slim to none, so they really can’t improve their playoff positioning. I look for the Colts to come out very flat this week and to be looking at getting everyone healthy going into the playoffs.

T.Y. Hilton is the best playmaker the Colts have. Well, he injured his hamstring last week in the win over the Texans, and he is questionable to play this week. Hilton did not practice Wednesday, Thursday or Friday, which is an indication that he probably won't play.  Reggie Wayne (59 catches, 665 yards) was also held out of Friday's practice and is dealing with multiple elements.

My best guess is that the Colts rest Hilton given the position they’re in, which would be a huge loss for the offense. Hilton has 82 receptions for 1,345 yards and seven touchdowns this year, nearly double the receptions and yardage total of their second-leading receiver (Coby Fleener, 42 receptions, 682 yards) on the team. Without Hilton, Andrew Luck would be pretty lost.

With the Colts' pretty much stagnant playoff situation in mind, there is plenty of talk about Indianapolis resting injured players or veterans such as wide receiver Reggie Wayne.  "We've talked about a lot of guys," head coach Chuck Pagano said. "He's one of the guys that you could consider but we'll look at him, we'll look at guys that are on the injury list that are dealing with nagging injuries and if it's best for them and best for the team then we'll do obviously what's right in all those cases."

Yes, I realize that DeMarco Murray has a broken hand, but running backs play with broken hands all the time. Murray is listed as questionable, but I fully expect him to play as he has been cleared by doctors, and the decision is up to him. Even if for whatever reason he cannot go, then Joseph Randle is more than a capable backup who can shoulder the load. Also, Tony Romo and the Dallas passing game are good enough to win this game without much of a running game. But again, I expect Murray to play.

Romo is having one of the best seasons of his career, completing 69.3 percent of his passes for 3,188 yards with 28 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. The Cowboys are 10-2 in games that Romo has played the entire 60 minutes without injury. The offense should have their way with an Indianapolis defense that is giving up a whopping 29.2 points and 393.7 yards per game on the road this year.

Indianapolis is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. good rushing teams that average at least 130 rushing yards per game in the season half of the season. Dallas is 32-16 ATS in its last 48 home games after having won three of its last four games coming in. The Colts are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. That includes ugly recent losses to the Steelers (34-51) on the road and the Patriots (20-42) at home.  Roll with the Cowboys Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Giants +6.5

The Rams are way overvalued right now because of their back-to-back shutout wins over both Oakland and Washington. They had covered four straight games and found themselves as 6-point home favorites over the Arizona Cardinals last week. Well, they obviously came up short, losing 6-12 .

That loss to the Cardinals officially eliminated the Rams from the playoffs, and I question their motivation coming into this game because of it.  Now, they find themselves as 6.5-point chalk against an improving New York Giants team that I would argue is every bit as good as the Rams.  St. Louis just has no business laying this big of a number.

The Giants have played very well in each of their last five games. They have outgained their last five opponents by a total of 210 yards, outgaining them by an average of 42.0 yards per game. They are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over Washington (24-13) and Tennessee (36-7). They blew a 21-0 lead at Jacksonville to lose 24-25. They also played both Dallas (28-31) and San Francisco (10-16) tough as their three losses during this stretch have come by a combined 10 points.  They haven't been beaten by a touchdown or more in any of their last five games.

This New York offense has really started to heat up with the emergence of rookie wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. It has put up 24 or more points in four straight games while averaging 28.0 points per game during this stretch. Eli Manning now has decent numbers on the year as he’s competing 63.2 percent of his passes for 3,590 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

Manning has thrown for at least 247 yards in four straight games with an 8-to-2 TD/INT ratio during this stretch.  Beckham has been the biggest reason for his resurgence.  He has 71 catches, including 46 in his last five games, and an NFL-high 62 targets over that span.  He has at least six receptions and 90 yards in each of his last seven games while totaling six touchdowns in his last four.

The defense is also playing its best football of the season here of late. The Giants are allowing just 15.3 points and 279.0 yards per game in their last three contests. They held the Jaguars to just 258 total yards, the Titans to 207 yards, and the Redskins to 372 yards. There’s just no way the Giants should be catching this many points when they are playing great on both sides of the football right now.

In my eyes, these teams are pretty much equals. That also shows up in the stats as the Giants rank 23rd in the league in yardage differential this season, while the Rams rank 24th. So, as equals, this line would be a pick ‘em on a neutral field. Give the Rams three points for home-field advantage, and this line should be St. Louis -3. We are getting some real good value here on the Giants as 6.5-point dogs as there are a couple of key numbers between 3 and 6.5 that could work in our favor here.

This also could be a letdown spot for the Rams. They are coming off that tough loss to Arizona last week, and now with nothing to play for at 6-8, they could be looking ahead to next week’s game at Seattle in hopes of spoiling the Seahawks’ bid to win the division. They likely won’t be as motivated for this game as they were against Arizona, or as they will be next week in Seattle. That could work against them here as well.

There has been some tension among some St. Louis players and coaches following that loss to Arizona, too.  The defeat caused finger-pointing in which tight end Jared Cook said afterward that the Rams were "outcoached" and "outplayed."  Cook would later go on to say that he regretted saying those words, but sometimes you just cannot take that back.

The Giants' pass rush has seen a big-time resurgence here in recent weeks.  They have produced 22 sacks in their last three games for a total of 41 on the season, which is the fourth-best mark in the NFL.  That's bad news for a Rams' offensive line that has been hurt by injuries and poor play.

Tackle Jake Long is out for the year with a knee injury. Left guard Rodger Saffold is at less than full strength with a nagging shoulder injury that will require offseason surgery. Injury-prone center Scott Wells is wearing a brace covering his left arm while right guard Davin Joseph is a journeyman.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (ST LOUIS) – after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 60-26 (69.8%) ATS since 1983. The Giants are 33-13 ATS in their last 46 road games following two more more consecutive ATS wins.

The Rams are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring and allowing 14 points or less last game. The Rams are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Giants are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games on turf. New York is 5-1 straight up and a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with St. Louis dating back to 2001. Take the Giants Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +12.5

The Toronto Raptors have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season at 21-6.  They own the best record in the Eastern Conference, but with that strong performance up to this point comes expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  They are way overvalued tonight.

The New York Knicks own one of the worst records in the NBA at 5-23.  While that is terrible and unexpected, I have no doubt that the Knicks are better than their record.  They are also way undervalued right now due to that record as they are catching a whopping 12.5 points against their division rivals today.

A whopping 18 of New York's 23 losses have come by 11 points or less.  That includes 13 losses by 7 points or fewer.  This team is going to be showing great value going forward as a result, especially with the recent return of Carmelo Anthony from a knee injury.  He is expected to play again today, and Amare Stoudemire is also returning from a one-game absence.

This is a rivalry game since these teams play in the same division.  They just played a few days ago as the Raptors beat the Knicks on the road 95-90 in overtime on December 14th.  The Knicks will be out for revenge in this one, while the Raptors may fail to show up after just recently beating the Knicks.

This is also a lookahead spot for Toronto.  It has a huge stretch of six road games coming up that starts tomorrow.  It goes to Chicago tomorrow and will be looking ahead to that game.  The upcoming road slate includes games against the Bulls, Clippers, Nuggets, Blazers, Warriors and Suns.  That's certainly something to be looking forward to for the Raptors.

The Knicks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  New York is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.  Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last five Sunday games.  The underdog is 17-6 ATS in the last 23 meetings.  New York is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Toronto has beaten New York by more than 12 points just once in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Knicks Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Jets +11

While everyone and their brother knows that Rex Ryan is likely out after this season, he has done a tremendous job of getting his players to show up every week. The perfect going away present for him would be to beat Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots one last time. Ryan has made no bones about the fact that he hates the Patriots and that they are their biggest rivals. The Jets always come to play against New England.

That was obviously the case in their first meeting of 2014. The Jets actually outplayed the Patriots as 9.5-point road underdogs and should have won, but came out on the losing end 25-27. They outgained the Patriots 423-323 for the game, or by 100 total yards. They did so behind a balanced attack offensively with 218 rushing yards and 205 passing yards. This has been a very closely contested series as four of the last five meetings have been decided by 3 points or fewer. The home team has won four of the last five meetings as well.

New York can use its rushing attack to shorten the game and keep Tom Brady and the New England offense off the field, which has been a formula for success for Ryan in his time here against the Patriots. The Jets rank 2nd in the league in rushing this season at 147.1 yards per game. The Patriots haven’t exactly been that great against the run as they allow 4.1 yards per carry. New York, averaging 4.7 per carry, should have plenty of success on the ground in this one.

The Jets have been emphasizing the run even more here down the stretch with a ton of success.  They have averaged 186.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games overall.  They have also averaged 197.5 rushing yards per game in their last two meetings with the Patriots.  Prior to rushing for 218 yards in their first meeting this season, they had rushed for 177 yards in a 30-27 upset home win over the Patriots in their final meeting of 2013 as well.

The thing I really like about the Jets is that they continue to fight. While they have gone just 1-2 in their last three games, they had a chance to win all three. They only lost 13-16 at home to Miami as 6.5-point underdogs three weeks ago. They lost 24-30 in overtime to Minnesota as 4-point road underdogs two weeks ago. They were finally rewarded for their hard-nosed play with a 16-11 win at Tennessee last week. These players love Ryan, and they aren’t going to lay down for the Patriots, either.

The Patriots could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now. This was already one of the biggest public teams in the NFL.  But after winning nine of their last 10 and covering the spread in five of their last six, the betting public is all over them even more right now. They were last week in a blowout win over the Dolphins, and they will be again this week against the Jets.

Oddsmakers realize this, forcing them to set the spread much higher than it should be. That’s indicated by the fact that the Patriots were only 9.5-point home favorites against the Jets the first time these teams played, and now they are 10-point road favorites. They should only be favored by roughly 3.5 points given the line of the first meeting when adjusting for home-field advantage.  I believe we are getting roughly 7 points of value on the Jets this week because of it.

Plays against road teams (NEW ENGLAND) – after a win by 21 or more points against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. New England is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Jets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven December games. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. New York is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with New England.  Bet the Jets Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Oddsmakers are saying that these teams are essentially equals with this spread when you factor in three points for home-field advantage. I have little doubt that the Steelers are the better team, and that will show on the football field Sunday. There is a ton of value in backing them as only 3-point home favorites in this contest. The numbers certainly indicate that they are the superior squad.

Indeed, Pittsburgh ranks 4th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 68.5 yards per game. Only the Broncos, Seahawks and Colts rank ahead of the Steelers in this department, so they are in some elite company. Conversely, the Chiefs rank just 18th in yardage differential, and they are actually getting outgained by 8.8 yards per game.

Pittsburgh simply lights up the scoreboard on a weekly basis. It is scoring 27.8 points per game while ranking 1st in the NFL in total offense at 424.9 yards per game. Ben Roethlisberger is having a career year, completing 67.2% of his passes for 4,415 yards with 29 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Antonio Brown (115 receptions, 1,498 yards, 11 TD) and Le’Veon Bell (1,278 rushing yards, 765 receiving yards, 10 total TD) are both having monster seasons as well.

Kansas City, which ranks 22nd in the league in total offense at 323.0 yards per game, simply is not going to be able to keep up. Alex Smith STILL has not thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver all season. As a result, its offense is way too predictable as the Steelers can focus in on stopping Jamaal Charles and the tight ends. Dick LeBeau will have the right game plan in place to make Smith try and beat them downfield, which he is incapable of doing.

This Pittsburgh defense hasn't been lights out by any means, but it has played better in recent weeks with a lot of guys finally getting healthy.  Also, it stops the run pretty well, giving up just 103 rushing yards per game against teams that average 115 per game.  It has allowed a combined 183 rushing yards in its back-to-back wins over Cincinnati (42-21) and Atlanta (27-20).  It has given up less than 100 rushing yards in five of its last seven overall.  Stopping Kansas City's rushing attack will be the key for the Steelers defensively, and they are equipped to do it.

The Steelers are 4-2 at home this season where they are putting up 35.0 points and 460.2 yards per game. The Chiefs are just 3-4 on the road this year where they are scoring 20.3 points per game and averaging 333.3 yards per game. Kansas City just does not play all that well when it gets away from Arrowhead Stadium, while the Steelers have proven that their game travels everywhere with them.

Kansas City is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 7.5 yards per attempt. The Chiefs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 home games after allowing 6.0 or more yards per play in its previous game. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Pittsburgh is 4-0 straight up in its last four home meetings with Kansas City.  Bet the Steelers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Steelers/Chiefs UNDER 47.5

I am taking the UNDER in this game Sunday between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs.  Unders went 13-3 in the NFL last week and have been a very profitable bet toward the end of the season as they usually are with the change in weather and the defenses having the advantage over the offenses with so much game film by now.  This is easily my favorite total in Week 16.

Pittsburgh has one of the best offenses in the NFL, which is a reason I'm also on the Steelers this week, but it is not going to put up a huge number on this Chiefs' defense.  I look for the Steelers to win in a low-scoring, defensive battle in this one somewhere in the neighborhood of a 24-14 game.

Pittsburgh does not have an elite defense this year, but it does stop the run well, which will be the key to stopping Kansas City.  The Steelers are only giving up 103 rushing yards per game against teams that average 115 rushing yards per game.  They have held the Bengals and Falcons to a combined 183 rushing yards over the last two weeks, and they have allowed less than 100 in five of their last seven.

Kansas City has one of the worst offenses in the NFL.  It ranks 22nd in the league in total offense at 323.0 yards per game.  It relies on Jamaal Charles and the running game as well as the tight ends to move the football.  In fact, the Chiefs have gone 17 straight games without throwing a touchdown pass to a wide receiver.  Veteran Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will have an excellent game plan in place to stop Charles and the tight ends and make Alex Smith try and beat them.

All Kansas City games this season have been unbelievably low-scoring.  In fact, the Chiefs have combined with their opponents for 45 or fewer points in 12 of their 14 games this year.  They have played in 10 straight games where 45 or fewer points were scored, making for a perfect 10-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to today's total set of 47.5 points.

The Chiefs do play great defense, ranking 8th in the league in total defense at 331.8 yards per game, and 4th in total defense at 18.1 points per game.  They also defense the pass very well, allowing just 199.2 passing yards per game to rank 2nd in the NFL in passing defense.  Again, the Steelers are not going to put up a ton of points on the Chiefs, but just enough to get the win and cover while keeping the total under the number.

The last two meetings between these teams have been ugly, defensive battles.  In 2012, the Steelers beat the Chiefs 16-13 (OT) at home for 29 combined points.  In 2011, the Steelers also snuck out  with a 13-9 road win for 22 combined points.  While I look for a little higher-scoring game this time around, it won't be enough to exceed 47 points.

Kansas City is 14-4 to the UNDER In its last 18 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 260 passing yards per game.  The Chiefs are 14-4 to the UNDER in their last 18 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 27 or more points per game.  Pittsburgh is 10-2 to the UNDER in its last 12 games after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in two straight games.  The UNDER is 40-19-1 in Chiefs last 60 games on grass. 

Mike Tomlin is 8-1 to the UNDER after scoring 25 or more points in three straight games as the coach of Pittsburgh.  Tomlin is 6-0 to the UNDER in home games in the last two weeks of the regular season as the coach of the Steelers.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* Harvard/Virginia CBB Sunday Early Riser on Harvard +10

The Harvard Crimson are one of the best teams in the country that not too many folks know about.  They return three starters from a squad that went 27-5 last year and won the Ivy League with a 13-1 record.

Those three starters are Wesley Saunders (14.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.8 apg last year), Siyani Chambers (11.1 ppg, 4.6 apg) and Steve Moundou Missi (10.5 ppg, 6.0 rpg).  Head coach Tommy Amaker has another talented, experienced squad in 2014-15 due to the return of these three guys.

I believe the Crimson came into the season overvalued, but after losing to Holy Cross 57-58 as a 10.5-point favorite on a neutral court, this team isn't getting the love it deserves right now.  I have seen plenty from them since that loss to know that they are still the team that I thought they'd be coming into the year.

They have since rolled over Florida Atlantic 71-49 as a 15.5-point favorite and Houston 84-63 as a 10.5-point favorite.  They also beat a very good UMass team 75-73 at home before reeling off three straight double-digits victories over Northeastern (60-46), Vermont (64-52) and Boston (70-56).

Saunders (20.1 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 4.5 apg) has proven to be one of the best players in the entire country this year.  Plus, the team has a ton of balance.  Chambers (8.6 ppg, 5.6 apg) and Moundou-Missi (9.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 2.1 bpg) are the other two returning starters players playing well.  Corbin Miller (8.5 ppg) and Jonah Travis (8.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg) have also offered key contributions.

Virginia could not possibly be more overvalued than it is right now.  Due to its 10-0 start that has included a 6-2 ATS record in lined games, the betting public is quick to jump on the Cavaliers.  Yes, they won the ACC last year and are still a very talented team this year with what they have back, but they should not be laying 10 points to a Harvard team that is one of the best that they have faced all season.

This is an excellent spot for the Crimson as well.  They just finished up finals, so their minds will be free and clear.  Throw in the fact that their last game was on December 8th 13 days ago, and they'll be chomping at the bit to get back on the court.  So, they have had essentially two weeks to prepare for Virginia, which is a huge advantage.  They'll also be highly motivated to face at Top 25 team.

Virginia, on the other hand, has not had hardly any time at all to prepare for Harvard.  It last played on Thursday, December 18th in a 70-54 home win over Cleveland State as a 17-point favorite.  It has only had two days to prepare for Harvard, which is a massive disadvantage considering the Crimson have had two weeks.

Plays against any team (VIRGINIA) - in a game involving two teams who don't shoot many 3 point shots (

20* Bowling Green/South Alabama Camellia Bowl BAILOUT on South Alabama -2.5

When deciding who to take in a bowl game, you certainly must consider what motivational factors will influence the game. I have no doubt that the South Alabama Jaguars (6-6, 5-3 Sun Belt) will be the more motivated team in this one. They are extremely happy to be here as this will be their first-ever bowl game.

Bowling Green (7-6, 5-3 MAC), meanwhile, got a worse bowl because it lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. If it would have won that game, it would be playing Conference USA Champion Marshall.  It is not nearly as excited to be here playing South Alabama when it could have played the 12-1 Thundering Herd instead.

You also have to consider the proximity of the schools to their bowl destination. Well, South Alabama is going to have a huge home-field advantage in this one considering it is being played in its home state in Montgomery, Alabama. So the Jaguars get check marks in both motivation and home-field advantage. Those two factors are enough to lay the 2.5 points with the Jaguars.

I’m not so sure that they aren’t the better team, too. They come into this game undervalued because they went 1-4 down the stretch after a 5-2 start. Well, a closer look at the five opponents they played tells the story. They played five other bowl eligible teams during this stretch in UL-Lafayette, Arkansas State, Texas State, South Carolina and Navy. They played three of those teams very tough, beating Texas State 24-20 at home, losing at Lafayette 9-19, and losing to Navy 40-42.

Bowling Green is playing its worst football of the season coming into this game. It has gone 0-3 SU & 0-2-1 ATS in its last three games overall. It lost 20-27 at Toledo while getting outgained by 117 yards, it lost 24-41 at home to a bad Ball State team while getting outgained by 31 yards, and lost 17-51 to Northern Illinois while getting outgained by 265 yards. The Falcons just cannot be trusted to bring their best effort after that crushing loss to the Huskies in the MAC Title Game.

South Alabama has not been elite offensively this season, but it has rushed the ball fairly well. It averages 183 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. It should find plenty of success moving the football on the ground against a Bowling Green defense that has been pitiful this year.

The Falcons give up 33.9 points and 499.2 yards per game against teams that only average 27.9 points and 415 yards per game. They have been atrocious against the run all season, allowing an average of 207 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry. In their last three games, they gave up 325 rushing yards to Toledo, 199 to Ball State, and 334 to Northern Illinois.

There’s no question that the Jaguars have the better defense in this one, and that’s a big reason while I’ll side with them here. The Jaguars are giving up just 25.8 points, 390.5 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play against teams that average 30.5 points, 432 yards per game and 6.0 per play. Bowling Green only averages 29.8 points per game and 5.5 yards per play against teams that give up 29.8 points per game and 5.8 per play, so its offense is nothing special.

South Alabama quarterback Brandon Bridge can be a tough matchup for any defense. The 6-foot-5, 235-pound senior is on the radar of many scouts with the prototypical build and athleticism that NFL teams covet. He completed only 51.9 percent of his passes in 10 games but threw 11 touchdowns and two interceptions over the final six.  He'll be looking to put on a show for the scouts in his final game.

The Falcons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall. Bowling Green is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four bowl games. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. Bowling Green is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  These four trends combine for a 15-1 system backing the Jaguars.  Take South Alabama in the Camellia Bowl Saturday.

15* Chargers/49ers NFL Saturday No-Brainer on San Diego +1

The San Diego Chargers are 8-6 right now and still very much alive in the AFC playoff race. They are just one game back in the wild card race, so they still have a ton to play for. There’s no question that we’re going to see an inspired effort from the Chargers given the situation. The same cannot be said for the 49ers.

San Francisco was eliminated from playoff contention with its 7-17 road loss to Seattle last week. It now has nothing to play for but pride. Off a big loss to their arch rivals last week, and with the realization that they won’t make the postseason, I look for the 49ers to come out very flat in this game and to not bring the kind of focus and effort it’s going to take to win.

The Chargers have played an absolutely brutal schedule here of late, which is the reason they have lost two in a row coming in. They lost to the Patriots 14-23 and to the Broncos 10-22, who are the top two seeds in the AFC right now, and arguably the two best teams in the NFL. They were competitive in both losses, and their defense played very well in them.

The 49ers are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, especially in the second half of the season. They are scoring just 17.9 points per game and averaging 314.2 yards per game to rank 28th in scoring offense and 27th in total offense. The 49ers have scored 17 or fewer points in each of their last five games, averaging a pitiful 11.2 points per game during this stretch. Colin Kaepernick has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, and he simply cannot be trusted.

Philip Rivers thrives late in the season, going 30-8 in his career in the month of December. Obviously, the losses to the Patriots and Broncos have hurt that record, but not too many teams are beating those two squads this year. I still believe Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in the game, and he’s having another fine season. He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,639 yards with 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Knowing the competitor he is, Rivers will rally the troops this week and go get a much-needed win for their playoff hopes.

The 49ers also have a ton of injury issues right now, and with nothing to play for, they are more apt to rest them then have them play through injury.  The players listed as questionable are Frank Gore, Carlos Hyde, Steve Johnson, Glenn Dorsey, Chris Culliver, Anthony Davis, Tramaine Brock, Ahmad Brooks and Chris Borland.  All of these players are key contributors, and most are starters.

Also, Ray McDonald was released the team due to his legal issues.  It's fitting that the 49ers waited until they were out of the playoff chase to release McDonald.  It's a very telling sign that they are going to go the conservative route with all of these injured players and most likely give their younger guys a chance to play.  They don't care about wins and losses at this point.

Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) – in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 14 points or less last game are 78-39 (66.7%) ATS since 1983. San Diego is 58-37 ATS in its last 95 games as a road underdog of 7 points or less. The Chargers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home. The 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. San Francisco is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games overall.  Take the Chargers Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night UPSET SHOCKER on Northern Iowa +2.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 9-1 with their only loss coming in double-overtime to VCU on the road by a final of 87-93 last time out as 7-point underdogs.  That was not a bad loss at all as VCU is one of the better teams in the country.  I have no doubt that UNI is the better team in this one and will pull off the upset over Iowa.

The Hawkeyes just have not impressed me at all this year.  They are off to an 8-3 start, and while it has come against a decently tough schedule, their three losses just stand out like a sore thumb.  Especially their 57-71 loss to Texas at Madison Square Garden and their 75-90 home loss to Iowa State last time out.  Their only good win came against North Carolina, which shot 27.9% in the loss to essentially hand the Hawkeyes the win.

UNI has played Iowa very tough through the years, and 2014 will be no exception.  The Panthers and Hawkeyes have actually split their last eight meetings with the Panthers winning four and the Hawkeyes winning four.  Well, this may be the best team UNI has had in the history of its program.

The Panthers are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, including 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  UNI is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  The Hawkeyes are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a loss.  Iowa is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  These five trends combined for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Panthers.  Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -4.5

This is a great spot to fade the Portland Trail Blazers and back the New Orleans Pelicans.  The Blazers are running on fumes right now with the schedule they have faced coming into this game and will have nothing left in the tank tonight.

The Blazers will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  Adding to that is the fact that they played a triple-overtime game against San Antonio last night.  I just can't see them putting forth a much effort in this game at all.

New Orleans comes on fresh after having yesterday off following its 99-90 win at Houston on Thursday.  The Pelicans have now won five of their last seven games overall to climb back above .500 at 13-12.  Anthony Davis is playing at an MVP-caliber level to lead the way.  It's only losses have come to Golden State (122-128, OT) and Dallas (107-112) during this seven-game stretch.

Home-court advantage has been enormous in this series as the home team has gone 9-1 in the last 10 meetings between New Orleans and Portland.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  Portland is 2-7 ATS in its last nine meetings with New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

20* Eagles/Redskins NFC East GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington +9

This line is inflated due to the fact that the Eagles are fighting for their playoff lives, while the Redskins are eliminated from postseason contention and have been for quite some time. While in some situations I would worry about the Redskins showing up, I never worry about it when they are playing their NFC East rivals. They always show up for the Eagles, Cowboys and Giants no matter the circumstance.

Washington is one of the best 3-11 teams in the history of the NFL. When you look at the numbers and not its record, you would think that this is a winning team or at least one around .500. That’s another reason why I believe the Redskins are undervalued here is because the numbers tell a completely different story than their record does.

Indeed, Washington ranks 9th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 19.7 yards per game this season. Of the top 16 teams in yardage differential, only two of them have losing records. They are the Redskins and Saints, who are also an underrated team due to their 6-8 record. The Redskins rank ahead of teams like the Packers, Cowboys, Eagles, Bills, 49ers, Dolphins, Chargers, Chiefs and Bengals in yardage differential this year.

The Redskins rank 12th in the league in total offense at 358.6 yards per game. Yes, Colt McCoy is out with an injury, but it might be a blessing in disguise. Robert Griffin III has had some time to grasp the game from the sidelines, and I believe he’ll be a better quarterback because of it. He will look to finish the season on a strong note to prove that he is still the quarterback of the future in Washington. The defense ranks 10th in the league in giving up just 338.9 yards per game.

Philadelphia is coming off back-to-back ugly performances, and the curse of Mark Sanchez is finally starting to show through. It managed just 139 total yards in a 14-24 home loss to Seattle, and 294 total yards with four turnovers in a 27-38 loss to Dallas in its last two games. It was outgained by a whopping 301 total yards by the Seahawks, and by 70 yards by the Cowboys. The Eagles just have no business laying this many points with the way they are playing right now, especially on the road with Sanchez at quarterback.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent meetings. Indeed, each of the last four meetings have been decided by 8 points or less. Washington actually outplayed Philadelphia in the first meeting of 2014 and should have won on the road. It lost 34-37 as a 4-point dog despite outgaining the Eagles 511-379 for the game, or by 132 total yards. Kirk Cousins threw for 427 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, and RGIII should pick up right where Cousins left off against this soft Philadelphia pass defense.

The Eagles are giving up 24.8 points per game and 371.3 yards per game this season to rank 26th in the league in total defense.  This defense is playing without arguably its two best players as well.  DeMeco Ryans has been out for an extended period of time and is the leader of the defense.  Now, top pass rusher Trent Cole is out with a fractured hand that he suffered last week against the Cowboys.  That's one less pass rusher that RGIII has to worry about, which will be huge in keeping him comfortable.

Plays on any team (WASHINGTON) – revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, a team that wins 25% of fewer of its games playing a team with a winning record are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Washington is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 games after 8-plus games vs. excellent passing teams that average 260 or more passing yards per game. Philadelphia is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a home loss by 10 points or more.  Bet the Redskins Saturday.

15* Syracuse/Villanova FOX Saturday No-Brainer on Syracuse +12

While it's clear that Syracuse is not as dominant as it has been in year's past, getting 12 points here with the Orange is simply a gift from the oddsmakers.  They are clearly way undervalued right now after their slow start to the season, while Villanova is way overvalued.

The Orange are just 6-3 this season, but they have played a brutal schedule up to this point already.  They lost to California, Michigan and St. John's, but beat Iowa and Louisiana Tech.  You can bet that head coach Jim Boeheim is using this slow start as a great teaching point for his players, and this young squad is only going to get better in a hurry as the season goes on.

Villanova is clearly one of the best teams in the country.  I have even backed the Wildcats this season on a couple of occasions.  However, with a 10-0 start that includes a 7-1-1 ATS record comes expectations from oddsmakers that they simply cannot live up to.  The betting public is all over the Wildcats after five straight covers, and this number has been set so high that it's now time to fade them.

Syracuse has owned Villanova as the Wildcats have consistently struggled against the Orange's size in recent history.  The Orange are 4-1 in their last five meetings with the Wildcats with their only loss coming in overtime (75-71) on the road last year.  The Wildcats may win this game, but it's not going to be by double-digits.

Plays against a favorite (VILLANOVA) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a top-level team (winning at least 80%) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 97-56 (63.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series.  Take Syracuse Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte +14

The Charlotte 49ers should not be catching 14 points against Georgetown today.  With four returning starters and off to a solid 6-4 start, the 49ers have shown me enough to know that they can easily stay within this spread and give the Hoyas a run for their money.

Charlotte has been highly competitive all season.  It has beaten some good teams like Penn State and South Carolina.  Three of its four losses came by single-digits against some very good competition.  It did lose to Miami 58-77, but also lost to Miami 74-77, at Davidson (86-91) and on a neutral court against George Washington (70-78).

Georgetown is way overvalued here.  While the Hoyas are improved this season, they are off to just a 6-3 start this year.  Yes, their three losses have come to very good teams in Wisconsin, Butler and Kansas, but their only good win came against a down Florida team by a single point (66-65).  They only beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi 78-62 at home and Robert Morris 80-66 at home.  They aren't going to blow out these 49ers by more than 14 points today.

Charlotte is 10-2 ATS in non-conference road games over the last two seasons.  Georgetown is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The 49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big East opponents.  The Hoyas are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Bet Charlotte Saturday.

15* Nevada/LA-Lafayette 2014 Bowl Opener on Louisiana-Lafayette +1

For starters, the Louisiana-Lafayette Rajin’ Cajuns have a huge home-field advantage for this game as it will be played in their home state of Louisiana. In fact, these players and coaches are very familiar with this game as this will be the fourth consecutive time they have played in it. They are a perfect 3-0 in those three games. Obviously, it would be nice for these players to experience a different venue, but they haven’t looked at it that way. They will be fighting for their thousands of fans that show up to watch.

Lafayette (8-4) has really been playing some great football for quite some time now. It has gone 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in its last eight games overall. It went on the road and beat Texas State (34-10), LA-Monroe (34-17) and Troy (42-23) during this stretch, while also beating two other bowl teams in Arkansas State (55-40) and South Alabama (19-9) at home.

This is a veteran bunch that returned 17 starters from last year and was the favorite to win the Sun Belt, but Georgia Southern just didn’t lose a conference game all season, and the Rajin' Cajuns never had the chance to face the Eagles to settle it on the field. I just believe all of these senior starters aren’t going to allow this team to have a letdown even though this is the fourth consecutive time they’ll be playing in the New Orleans Bowl.

It starts with senior quarterback Terrance Broadway, who leads an offense that is putting up 30.6 points and 417.9 yards per game this season. Broadway is completing 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,068 yards and 12 touchdowns, while also rushing for 646 yards and three scores. The one-two punch of Elijah McGuire (1,165 yards, 14 TD, 7.8/carry) and Alonzo Harris (737 yards, 12 TD, 4.6/carry) is tough to deal with.

I just have not been that impressed with Nevada (7-5, 4-4 MWC) this season. It went just 4-4 in a very weak Mountain West Conference and is not playing that great coming in. It has lost two of its last three games with its only win coming against 2-11 UNLV. It lost at home to Fresno State 20-40, getting outgained by 198 yards against a mediocre Bulldogs squad. It also lost at Air Force 38-45. Its seven wins this season have come against Southern Utah, Washington State, San Jose State, BYU, Hawaii, SDSU and UNLV.

Nevada’s defense is the reason it stands little chance in this game. It is giving up 28.2 points and 450.1 yards per game to rank 105th in the country in total defense. It hasn’t been able to stop the run or the pass. It is giving up 179 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry this season. It is also allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.7% of their passes for 271 yards per game. Broadway and company will have a field day against this defense.

Nevada is a run-first team that averages 215 rushing yards per game compared to 197 passing yards. That actually makes this a great matchup for the Rajin’ Cajuns because they have been solid against the run, but not very good against the pass. They are allowing just 147 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that average 168 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry. So, they are an above-average defense against the run.

This game is going to come down to which team can stop the run because they both run it so frequently.  The edge obviously goes to the Rajin' Cajuns here as they give up just 147 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry, compared to the Wolf Pack, who give up 179 per game and 4.8 per carry against teams that average 167 per game and 4.3 per carry.

The Wolf Pack are 0-8 ATS vs. awful passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 62% or worse over the last three seasons. This trend goes right in line with my thinking. They haven’t been able to take advantage of poor passing defenses in the past, and they won’t in this one, either. Lafayette is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 vs. a team with a winning record. Nevada is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six bowl games.

Mark Hudspeth is 15-6 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is 9-1 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two of their last three games as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is a perfect 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game as the coach of Lafayette.  Hudspeth is 3-0 in bowl games as the coach of the Rajin' Cajuns.  Bet Louisiana-Lafayette in the New Orleans Bowl Saturday.

25* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bulls/Grizzlies UNDER 194

The Chicago Bulls and Memphis Grizzlies are known for how hard they play defense.  It's a big reason why both rank near the top of their respective conference this year.  Chicago is 16-9 while Memphis is 21-4.  I look for a defensive battle between these teams Friday.

Both teams are among the top 10 in defensive efficiency this season, which has been a trend for these two for years.  Memphis ranks 7th in defensive efficiency, allowing 100.2 points per 100 possessions.  Chicago is 9th, allowing 101.5 points per 100 possessions.

Memphis plays at one of the slowest paces in the league as well, and playing at home, it will control the tempo tonight.  The Grizzlies rank 25th in pace at 94.1 possessions per game.  The Bulls are 15th at 95.8 possessions per contest.

It's no wonder that these teams always seem to play in low-scoring games when they get together.  Indeed, they have combined for 188 or fewer points in each of their last six meetings.  They have combined for 162, 186, 167, 151, 188 and 168 points in their last six meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 170.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 24 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.  The UNDER is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.

I believe a big reason this number has been inflated is because Memphis has played in some high-scoring games here of late.  Well, three of its last four games went to overtime.  They went to double-OT against Charlotte in a game that was tied 92-92 at the end of regulation.  They went to OT against Philadelphia.  They went to triple-OT against San Antonio in a game that was tied 92-92 at the end of regulation as well.

Chicago also went over the total last night in a 103-97 home win over New York.  Now, playing the second of a back-to-back tonight, the Bulls are strongly considering resting Derrick Rose as he is listed as questionable.  Whether he plays or not, I have no doubt this game goes under the posted total.

Chicago is 7-0 to the UNDER in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams making at least 76% of their attempts this season.  The UNDER 6-0 in Bulls last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bulls are 23-8 to the UNDER off a home win over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 13-2 to the UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last two years.  The Grizzlies are 20-5 to the UNDER in their last 25 off six or more consecutive wins.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Thunder/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +3

The Golden State Warriors just had their 16-game winning streak snapped.  Teams that have extended winning streaks come to an end the game before usually come out flat the next game because they are no longer focused in on keeping that winning streak going.  I look for the Warriors to drop their second straight game after falling to the Grizzlies on Tuesday.

Now, Golden State has to face a team that is playing as well as anyone in the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder have gotten back to 12-13 on the season and will be pushing hard to get to .500 tonight with another victory.

The Thunder have won seven straight games coming in with six of those coming by 9 points or more.  To no surprise, this streak started just about when both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook returned to the lineup.  Now, the Thunder are at full strength and a very dangerous team that should not be an underdog to almost anyone.

Westbrook is averaging 27.8 points on 50.9 percent shooting in nine games since returning from a fractured right hand.  Durant is still rounding into his superstar form, averaging 21.5 points in eight games since his debut from a fractured right foot.

While the offense has been superb in scoring at least 103 points in eight of their last nine games, the defense has been very good as well.  The Thunder are giving up 93.1 points per game and 40.2 percent shooting during their seven-game winning streak.  They have taken 13 of their last 18 meetings with the Warriors.

Oklahoma City is 18-6 ATS In its last 24 vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 6-plus points per game.  Golden State is 14-27 ATS after having won four of its last five games over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. Western Conference.  Oklahoma City is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. NBA Pacific division opponents.  The Thunder are 5-0 ATS In their last five games overall.  OKC is 7-1 ATS In its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  OKC is 4-1 ATS in its last five visits to Golden State.  Roll with the Thunder Thursday.

15* Titans/Jaguars AFC South Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 40.5

This is a matchup between two of the worst offenses in the NFL Thursday night as the Jacksonville Jaguars take on the Tennessee Titans in an AFC South rivalry game.  I look for the defenses to dominate this contest, especially with how familiar these foes are having to play each other twice a season.

The first meeting was a defensive battle as well.  The Titans beat the Jaguars 16-14 at home for 30 combined points.  It was the second straight really low-scoring meeting in this series after they combined for 36 in their final showdown in 2013.  Six of the last nine meetings between these teams have seen 40 or fewer combined points.

Jacksonville ranks last in the league in scoring offense (15.1 points/game) and 31st in total offense (293.7 yards/game).  Tennessee ranks 29th in the league in scoring offense (16.5 points/game) and 29th in total offense (307.9 yards/game).  As you can see, both offenses have been among the worst in the NFL in 2014, and that will continue tonight.

Tennessee is down to its third-string quarterback in Charlie Whitehurst with both Jake Locker and Zach Mettenberger out with injuries.  Look for a conservative game plan for Whitehurst, who is 1-2 as a start this year.  One of those starts came against Jacksonville in the first meeting.  He led the Titans to just 290 total yards and 16 points in the win, but did not commit a turnover.

The Jaguars have actually been playing some pretty good defense here of late. They held the Giants to 329 total yards, the Texans to just 304 total yards, and the Ravens to just 312 total yards in their last three games, respectively.  It took Baltimore forever to finally pull away for a 20-12 win over Jacksonville last week because of how well the Jaguars' defense was playing.

The Titans came through with one of their best defensive efforts of the season last week.  They held the Jets to just 277 total yards in their 16-11 home loss.  Their defense certainly has the Jaguars figured out as they have held them to a combined 30 points (15.0 points/game) in their last two meetings.

Jacksonville is 6-0 to the UNDER in its last six home games vs. poor passing defenses that allow a completion percentage of 61% or worse.  The Jaguars are 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine home games vs. poor defensive teams that give up 350 or more yards per game.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Titans last four December games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Jaguars last four December games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Jacksonville.  These five trends combine for a 26-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Knicks/Bulls TNT TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UNDER 194.5

The Chicago Bulls and New York Knicks will take part in a defensive battle tonight.  The books have set the bar way too high in this game, and we'll take advantage as this is my strongest totals play on TNT for the month of December.

Both teams like to play at slow paces, which favors the UNDER here.  New York ranks 29th in the NBA in pace at 92.1 possessions per game.  Chicago ranks 13th in pace at 96.0 possessions per game.  The Knicks average a woeful 93.6 points per game as they continue trying to learn the Triangle Offense.

This has been a very low-scoring series in recent meetings.  Indeed, the Bulls and Knicks have combined for 189 or fewer points in each of their last five meetings.  They combined for 184, 189, 199, 161 and 163 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 179.2 points per game, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 194.5.

Both teams have been pretty good defensively this year as they each allow less than 100 points per game.  Chicago's defense gets a big boost tonight as both Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah are expected to play.  Noah has missed the last four games with an injury.

Chicago is 9-1 to the UNDER versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game on the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Bulls last five vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Bulls last 13 when playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 37-18-2 in Bulls last 57 Thursday games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Nets/Raptors ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Brooklyn +11

The Toronto Raptors are way overvalued right now because they own the best record in the Eastern Conference at 19-6.  They now find themselves favored by double-digits for only the fifth time this season against the Brooklyn Nets tonight, which is way too much.

Toronto hasn't been as dominant of late because it has been without its second-leading scorer in DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg) for the last 10 games.  It has gone just 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  This team just isn't as good without DeRozan in the lineup.

Yes, I know the Nets will be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight after losing 91-95 to Miami yesterday, but I'm not too concerned about it.  They had two days off prior to that Miami game to rest.  Plus, this is a National TV game on ESPN, so they will be motivated to push through whatever fatigue they are feeling.

The Nets have actually played their best basketball on the road this season, going 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS.  They have only been beaten twice on the road by more than 10 points on the road three times all year.  They stayed within 10 of Phoenix, Golden State and Portland to name a few of their solid road performances.  The beat the Hornets 114-87 in their last road game.

Brooklyn beat Toronto in the playoffs last year in seven games and has won five of the last eight meetings overall.  In fact, Brooklyn has not lost to Toronto by more than 8 points in any of their last nine meetings.  That's a perfect 9-0 system backing the Nets pertaining to this 11-point spread.

The Raptors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  The Nets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings in Toronto.  These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing Brooklyn.  Take the Nets Tuesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska-Omaha -3.5

This Nebraska-Omaha team is one that I had my eye on a lot last year and rode them with quite a bit of success.  They are an under-the-radar team because they still have one year left in their four-year reclassification to Division I, which means they can't be part of the Summit League, NCAA and NIT Tournaments.

Due to this fact, most of the betting public does not know about the Mavericks just yet.  They went 17-15 last season and pulled off some impressive upsets along the way.  Now, they bring back three starters and a key reserve from that team and should be even better in 2014-15.

Those three starters are G CJ Carter (13.5 ppg, 3.4 apg last year), F Mike Rostampour (9.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg) and G Devin Patterson (10.1 ppg, 3.3 apg).  The key reserve is G Marcus Tyus (9.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg).

With Carter, Patterson and Tyler, the Mavericks are loaded at the guard positions to run head coach Derrin Hansen's up-tempo system.  Rostampour is a rebounding beast; he averaged 7.5 boards in just 20.7 minutes per game last year.  Throw in Wichita State transfer Jake White, who played in the Final Four against Louisville, and this has the makings of a dangerous club.

Just ask Marquette about it.  Nebraska-Omaha went into Marquette and won 97-89 as a 17-point underdog on November 22nd.  It followed that up with a game effort at Nebraska, getting the cover as a 14.5-point underdog in a 13-point loss.  Then, at home against Nevada, it rolled to a 78-54 home victory as a 5.5-point favorite.

Carter (16.0 ppg, 3.1 apg, 3.1 rpg)) and Patterson (13.7 ppg, 4.9 apg, 4.0 rpg) have really stepped up their games this year.  Tre-Shawn Thurman (10.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg) has provided a boost that was unexpected coming into the year.  Rostampour (9.9 ppg, 7.6 rpg) and White (7.5 ppg, 11.0 rpg) have been forces down low.  Tyus (9.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg) has continued his solid play off the bench.

The Mavericks have played a brutal schedule this year with six road games against only three home games and have done a very good job of getting to 4-5 with this gauntlet.  They are just 1-5 on the road, but 3-0 at home where they are outscoring teams by a whopping 25.4 points per game.

Northern Colorado has been terrible on the road and great at home as well.  It is 4-0 at home with its four wins coming against some terrible teams in Black Hills State, Colorado Christian, Stetson and Florida A&M.  It is 0-4 on the road where it is getting outscored by an average of 15.5 points per game.  It lost at New Mexico State 65-86 and at Colorado 68-93.

Nebraska-Omaha is a perfect 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.  Northern Colorado is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss.  The Bears are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -1

The Phoenix Suns are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six straight coming in with five of those losses coming by 6 points or less.  This team is much better than their 12-14 record to this point in the season, and they will be laying it all on the line to try and end this skid.

The Suns couldn't ask for a much better opponent to put an end to this losing streak.  They'll be facing a Charlotte Hornets team that is just 6-18 on the season, and one that has lost 13 of their last 15 games coming in.  Their only wins came at home against lowly New York and Boston.

Phoenix has owned Charlotte in recent meeting as well.  It is 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings with the Hornets.  All five of those victories came by 6 points or more as well.

Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHARLOTTE) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 199-127 (61%) ATS since 1996.

The Suns are 45-21-1 ATS in their last 67 games playing on 1 days rest.  Phoenix is 30-14-1 ATS in its last 45 games following an ATS loss.  Charlotte is 4-9-2 ATS in its last 15 games overall.  The Hornets are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.  Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Suns Wednesday.

20* Thunder/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -7

The Oklahoma City Thunder are surging since both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant returned.  After digging themselves an early hole, the Thunder (11-13) cannot afford to take games off the rest of the way if they want to make the playoffs.  That's why you know they are going to bring it every night, and they certainly have done that of late.

Indeed, the Thunder 6-0 in their last six games overall with the last four coming via blowout.  They are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with a 13-point win over Milwaukee, a 9-point win over Cleveland, a 19-point win at Minnesota, and a 24-point win against Phoenix.

Sacramento is in shambles right now.  It has gone 2-8 in its last 10 games overall, which led to the firing of head coach Mike Malone.  This stretch has coincided with the loss of DeMarcus Cousins to a battle with viral meningitis.  The Kings fell to 2-7 without Cousins in a 95-90 home loss to four-win Detroit last time out.  Cousins remains out tonight.

Oklahoma City simply owns Sacramento.  The Thunder have won 11 consecutive meetings with the Kings, and dating back further they are 17-1 in their last 18.  I look for this domination to continue tonight as the Thunder roll to a blowout victory over the Kings.

The Thunder are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Sacramento is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games, and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games when playing on two days' rest.  The Kings are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Bet the Thunder Tuesday.

15* Alabama/Wichita State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Alabama +12.5

After going just 13-19 last year, the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They are off to a solid start at 6-2 this season with their only losses coming on the road to nationally ranked Iowa State along with a very good Xavier team.

The reason I'm high on the Crimson Tide this year is because they return four starters from last season.  They are Shannon Hale (8.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), Levi Randolph (9.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Rodney Cooper (7.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Retin Obasohan (9.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg).

Randolph (17.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Cooper (13.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg) have taken their games to the next level this season.  Tulane transfer Ricky Tarrant (13.4 ppg) had 20 games of 20-plus points before coming to Alabama and has picked up right where he left off.

Wichita State is simply overvalued right now after making the Final Four last year and getting off to a 7-1 start this year.  That has been evident in its last two games as it beat Seton Hall 77-68 at home as a 12.5-point favorite, and Detroit 77-68 on the road as a 13-point favorite.  Now, we're getting another 12.5-point spread here, and Alabama is better than both Seton Hall and Detroit.

These teams met last December as well with Wichita State winning 72-67 on the road as a 1-point favorite.  That edition of the Shockers was much better than this one, while this edition of the Crimson Tide is much better than last year's.  Alabama is going to want some revenge on the Shockers in this rematch a year later.

Alabam  is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 or fewer points per game.  The Crimson Tide are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog of 10 or more points.  Alabama is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games as a road dog of 12.5 to 18 points.  The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Alabama Tuesday.

15* Warriors/Grizzlies ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 203

This is an excellent matchup tonight between the top two teams in the Western Conference in Golden State (21-2) and Memphis (19-4).  I look for the intensity to be very high in this game, especially on the defensive end, given the caliber of this game and the fact that it will be nationally televised on ESPN.

After all, the reason these teams are in 1st and 2nd place are because of their defense.  Golden State ranks 1st in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.2 points per 100 possessions.  Memphis ranks 7th, allowing 100.2 points per 100 possessions.

This is a contrast in styles as the Warriors like to push the tempo, while the Grizzlies like to slow it down.  Well, the home team almost always controls the tempo, so look for this game to be played at a snail's pace.  Memphis ranks 25th in the league in pace at 94.2 offensive possessions per game.

When you look at previous meetings between these teams and previous totals in this series, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated tonight.  Oddsmakers have set the totals for Memphis vs. Golden State games at 192.5 or less in each of their last seven meetings.  This total is set at 203 points.

It's also easy to see why this number is inflated when you consider how low-scoring this series has been.  Memphis and Golden State have combined for 198 or fewer points in each of their last eight meetings.  They have combined for 193, 190, 169, 198, 192, 181, 198 and 192 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 189.1 combined points per game, which is roughly 14 points less than tonight's posted total of 203.

Another reason this number is inflated is because both Golden State and Memphis are coming off high-scoring games, but that was the result of overtime.  The Warriors beat the Pelicans without Anthony Davis 128-122 in OT last time out, while the Grizzlies have played back-to-back OT games against Philadelphia (120-115) and Charlotte (113-107).

Golden State is 20-9 to the UNDER after a combined score of 215 points or more over the last two seasons.  Memphis is 60-34 to the UNDER in its last 94 games off four or more consecutive wins.  The UNDER is 42-15 in Warriors last 57 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 40-19 in Warriors last 59 games following an ATS loss.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Warriors last seven vs. Western Conference foes.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Phoenix Suns -4.5

The Phoenix Suns are way undervalued right now due to their current five-game losing streak that has dropped them to 12-13 on the season.  Now, they are only 4.5-point home favorites against the Milwaukee Bucks tonight when they should be closer to double-digit favorites.

The Suns have played a tough stretch of games during this losing streak, and four of the five losses have come by 6 points or less.  They lost at Houston, at LA Clippers and at Oklahoma City.  They aren't all of a sudden a bad team due to this streak, they just have had some bad fortune.  The public perception on them is way down, and now it's time to back the Suns as they play an inspired effort at home tonight to put an end to this skid.

Milwaukee is actually overvalued right now due to its decent 12-12 start to the year.  While there's no question the Bucks are improved, they have no business only catching 4.5 points against one of the better teams in the Western Conference.  The Bucks have lost five of their last seven coming in.  They are just 5-8 on the road this season where they are giving up 103.5 points per game.

Phoenix has owned Milwaukee in recent meetings.  It is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight meetings with Milwaukee overall with five of those victories coming by 9 points or more.  The Suns swept the season series with the Bucks last year, winning 116-100 at home and 126-117 on the road.  I like their chances of earning another blowout victory here tonight.

Milwaukee is in a letdown spot after beating the Clippers at home on Saturday, who were tired playing the second of a back-to-back.  Milwaukee is 4-14 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Bucks are 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games following a S.U. win.  The Suns are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.  Phoenix is 30-13-1 ATS in its last 44 games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Suns Monday.

20* Saints/Bears ESPN Monday Night MASSACRE on New Orleans -3

These teams share identical 5-8 records. However, there is one distinct difference, and it’s the reason that I am taking the Saints Monday night. The Saints are tied for first place in the NFC South and are still fighting to make the playoffs. The Bears have already been eliminated from the playoffs as they trail the final two wild card spots by four games with only three to play. So, the Saints will be the more motivated team in this one, and I’ll side with them as a result.

Couple that motivation with the fact that the Saints are the better team statistically despite their identical 5-8 records, and it’s plenty of reason to lay the three points with the road favorite this week. Indeed, the Saints rank 9th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 22.3 yards per game on the season. Of the top 17 teams in yardage differential, only two have losing records. They are the Saints and the Redskins, who are both underrated teams.

Chicago is every bit as bad as its 5-8 record would indicate. It ranks 27th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 35.0 yards per game this season. It has really been beat up defensively. It allows a league-worst 29.1 points per game this season while ranking 28th in the NFL in total defense at 377.8 yards per game.

That’s bad news for the Bears considering they will be up against one of the league’s best offenses this week. New Orleans ranks 3rd in the NFL in total offense, averaging 421.0 yards per game. The Bears have allowed 34 or more points in four of their last six games overall. They gave up 51 to New England, 55 to Green Bay, 34 to Detroit, and 41 to Dallas. The only exceptions were games against terrible offenses in Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

The Bears have been decent offensively this year as they rank 18th at 342.8 yards per game. However, they just lost their best player on offense in Brandon Marshall to a season-ending injury, and Jay Cutler and company will suffer going forward as a result. Marshall has 61 receptions for 721 yards and eight touchdowns this season and is simply irreplaceable. The Saints will be able to key in on stopping Alshon Jeffery this week instead of having to try to contain both Marshall and Jeffery, which will be a much easier task.

New Orleans has actually been playing better on the road than at home here of late. It has gone 2-0 in its last two road games with wins at Carolina (28-10) and at Pittsburgh (35-32). Even in its road game prior to those two wins, it only lost at Detroit 23-24 after blowing a 23-10 lead over the final four minutes of the game. These last three road games are proof that you can put to rest the notion that the Saints can only win at home.

Drew Brees has led the Saints to wins in each of the last two meetings with the Bears.  They won 30-13 at home in 2011 and 26-18 on the road last year over Chicago.  Brees has completed 76.4 percent of his passes for 558 yards with five touchdowns without an interception in those two games, and figures to have another monster performance on Monday Night Football.

Plays on road teams (NEW ORLEANS) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, after the first month of the season are 53-22 (70.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  New Orleans is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 road games after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in its last game. Chicago is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 home games. The Bears are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 vs. NFC opponents. Chicago is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit home loss. The Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 December games.

Chicago is 0-8 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 7.0 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Bears are 0-7 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 350 or more yards per game in the second half of the season over the last three years.  Chicago is 0-6 ATS versus excellent offensive teams that average 6.0 yards per play or more in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a perfect 21-0 system backing New Orleans.  Bet the Saints Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic +7

The Orlando Magic have been a money-making machine for me here of late, and I'm going to continue to ride them because they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  That's especially the case in today's situation.

Orlando is a much better team than its 10-16 record would indicate.  It has gone 15-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  It has also gone 4-4 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games.   The Magic beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also topping Atlanta (100-99) at home.  They suffered close road losses to Golden State (97-98) and Atlanta (81-87), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this eight-game stretch.

The Magic just got back their leading scorer and rebounder in Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.7 rpg) after a five-game absence.  He returned in time to beat the Hawks on Saturday, and now he's back to full strength and the Magic should be an even more dangerous team going forward.  They also feel pretty good about themselves after Tobias Harris hit a game-winner at the buzzer to beat Atlanta.

While I like what I've seen from the Magic of late, this is more of a fade of Toronto than anything.  The Raptors are way overvalued due to having the best record in the Eastern Conference at 18-6.  Well, they have shown signs of slowing down here of late, going just 5-4 in their last nine games overall.  A lot of that has had to with an injury to second-leading scorer DeMar DeRozan (19.4 ppg), who has missed the past nine games with a groin injury.

DeRozan will miss this game as well.  Without him, this roster is very thin.  The Raptors are in a tough spot here as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  Plus, they went to overtime to beat New York on the road last night, and I look for them to come out tired and flat in this game against the re-energized Magic.  Orlando will be giving the better effort in this one, and it will allow them to stay within 7 points and possibly pull off the upset.

Plays on road teams (ORLANDO) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 22-3 (88%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Orlando is 8-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Magic are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Orlando is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks +7

The New York Knicks own one of the league's worst records at this point in the season at 5-20.  As a result, they are way undervalued right now.  I certainly do not believe they are one of the worst teams in the NBA, but they have simply been unlucky in close games this year.

Indeed, a whopping 13 of the Knicks' 20 losses this season have come by 7 points or less.  That is about as unlucky as it gets.  This team has not quit, however, as it is coming off a big win at Boston 101-95 on Friday to put an end to an extended losing streak.  I like its chances of pulling off the upset tonight as well.

At 17-6 on the season and with one of the best records in the NBA, the Toronto Raptors are clearly overvalued right now.  This combination of the Raptors being overvalued and the Knicks undervalued has created some massive line inflation in this game.  The Raptors should not be laying 7 points on the road to the Knicks.

New York won each of its final two meetings of the season with with the Raptors in 2013-14.  It won 108-100 as a 5.5-point road underdog, and 95-92 as a 6-point home dog.  It has actually taken three of its last five from Toronto.  The underdog is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW YORK) - hot shooting team - three straight games making at least 47% of their shots are 92-52 (63.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win of more than 10 points.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Bet the Knicks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Samford +18

This play is more of a fade of Wake Forest than a play on Samford.  I simply do not believe the Demon Deacons should be favored by 18 tonight with the way they have played in 2014.

Wake Forest is in transition mode in its first year under Danny Manning.  It lost four players from last year's team that averaged from 6.9 to 10.7 points per game.  It did bring back three starters, but one of those is Madison Jones (3.3 ppg, 2.8 apg), who should not count as a returning starter.

The Demon Deacons are off to a 4-5 start this year.  Their four wins have come against UNC-Asheville, Tulane, Nicholls State and Mount St. Mary's.  They have been blown out by Arkansas (53-83), Minnesota (69-84) and NC State (65-78), while also suffering very bad home losses to Delaware State (65-72) and Iona (81-85).

Samford is off to a 3-7 start this season, but it has at least been competitive in terms of the point spread, going 5-3 ATS.  Wake Forest is just 1-4 ATS to compare.  I've seen enough from the Bulldogs to know that they can hang with the Demon Deacons in this one.

They have impressive road losses to Pittsburgh (56-63) as 31-point underdogs and to LA Tech (64-77) as 24-point dogs.  They also lost to CS-Northridge (72-79) as 10-point underdogs on a neutral court.  They last played on December 6th, so they will be well-rested and ready to go after having seven days in between games.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (SAMFORD) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 88-47 (65.2%) ATS since 1997. 

The Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Samford is 5-0 ATS in its last five Sunday games.  Wake Forest is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Demon Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a 19-1 system backing the Bulldogs.  Roll with Samford Sunday.

15* 49ers/Seahawks NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +10

This line is clearly an overreaction for a couple of different reasons. The first being the results last week. The Seahawks earned an impressive 24-14 road win at Philadelphia, while the 49ers lost at Oakland 13-24 despite being an 8-point favorite in that game. So, the public perception is high on the Seahawks right now, while it’s very low on the 49ers. That has forced the oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be knowing that the betting public is going to be quick to back the Seahawks.

The other reason for this big spread is that the 49ers just lost to the Seahawks 19-3 at home two weeks ago. Obviously, that was not a good showing for the 49ers, but they are going to be playing desperate football Sunday because they know they likely have to win out to make the playoffs. These rivalry games are always played closer to the vest, and the 49ers will be out for blood in this game.

One thing that jumps out to me is the line on this game compared to the one in San Francisco.  The 49ers were 1-point favorites at home over the Seahawks, so when you factor in three points for home-field advantage, they should only be 5-point underdogs at Seattle in the rematch.  With this line being 10 instead, we are getting roughly 5 extra points of value on the 49ers.  That says it all right there.

Prior to that 19-3 win by the Seahawks, the previous two meetings in this series were decided by a combined eight points. The 49ers won 19-17 at home in 2013, and they also hung tough in a 17-23 road loss to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game last year. They actually led that game most of the way before blowing it in the fourth quarter, so they have proven they can hang with the Seahawks in Seattle. They hold a 5-4 edge over the Seahawks in their last nine meetings.

With a defense as good as the one the 49ers feature, they have a chance to be competitive in every game they play. They rank 3rd in the league in total defense, giving up just 308.5 yards per game on the season. Yes, their offense has not been up to par, but their defense is the reason why they have played in so many close games this year. Indeed, 10 of the 49ers’ 13 games this year have been decided by 11 points or less. They have only lost twice by more than 11 points all season.

The 49ers also have the formula for stopping the Seahawks.  First and foremost, you must slow down Marshawn Lynch and the rushing attack.  Well, the 49ers rank 7th in the league against the run, giving up just 97.2 yards per game and 3.9 per carry.  They held the Raiders to just 85 rushing yards on 31 carries last week and should be able to build off of that performance.

This is actually a letdown spot for the Seahawks. They are coming off their huge road win over the Eagles last week, and they have Arizona on deck next week with first place in the NFC West likely on the line. They also already beat the 49ers by 16, so they are going to be in a tough spot here mentally.

They won’t be as emotionally jacked up for this game as they were the first time they played the 49ers, or as much as they were against the Eagles, and as much as they will be next week against the Cardinals. It’s going to take 100% focus for the Seahawks to win this game by more than 10 points, and even that may not be enough against a 49ers team that will be out for revenge.  The Seahawks are almost overconfident right now, which will work against them.

Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs or pick (SAN FRANCISCO) – off an upset loss as a road favorite, winning between 51% and 60% of their games in the second half of the season are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays on road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) – revenging a loss against opponent, off a road loss are 75-35 (67.6%) ATS over the past 10 seasons.

San Francisco is a perfect 8-0 ATS after having lost two of its last three games over the past two seasons. The 49ers are 19-5 ATS in their last 24 games following an upset loss as a road favorite. San Francisco is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a poor passing defense that allows a completion percentage of 61% or better. The 49ers are 26-11-3 ATS in their last 40 games following a ATS loss. San Francisco is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 road games.  Bet the 49ers Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo Bills +5.5

The Buffalo Bills (7-6) have been fighting hard to make the playoffs here in recent weeks, and they have been playing their best football of the season as a result. They have won two of their last three games while going a perfect 3-0 against the spread. Their two wins came via the blowout as they dominated the Jets 38-3 on a neutral field. They also topped the Browns 26-10 at home. They outscored those two teams a ridiculous 64-13.

However, I was just as impressed with the Bills’ only loss during this stretch. They went into Denver last week and gave the Broncos a run for their money in a 17-24 road loss as 9.5-point underdogs. They actually outplayed the Broncos when you look at the box score. They outgained them 415-306 for the game, or by 109 total yards. They held Peyton Manning to just 14 of 20 passing for 173 yards and two interceptions without a touchdown pass. It was the first time in over 50 games that Manning failed to throw a TD pass.

A big reason I was on the Bills last week was because of their passing defense. Well, after shutting down Manning, they certainly showed that they can stop anyone’s passing game. That’s why you have to like their chances of slowing down Green Bay and its passing attack led by Aaron Rodgers, who is having an MVP-type season. I look for this Bills’ defense to be the reason that they not only stay within five points, but also the reason that they have a chance to win this game outright.

Buffalo ranks 4th in the league in scoring defense at 18.5 points per game while ranking 5th in total defense at 311.9 yards per game. The Bills have been elite against the pass, ranking 5th in the NFL at 212.8 yards per game allowed. The Packers, on the other hand, have been terrible defensively this season. They are giving up 23.4 points per game while ranking 26th in the league in total defense (374.4 yards/game).

Green Bay is 7-0 at home but just 3-3 on the road. It is actually getting outscored by 4.3 points per game away from home this season. It has only one win on the road by more than three points this year, and that was a 38-17 win at Chicago in a game that was nowhere near the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Packers were actually outgained by 138 yards by the Bears in that contest.

The Packers have been even worse defensively on the road. They are giving up 26.8 points and 399.8 yards per game away from home. Their offense has been held in check in road games, too, averaging just 343.0 yards per game. So, they are getting outgained by 56.8 yards per game away from home this year.

This is also a tough spot for the Packers. They are working on a short week after playing on Monday Night Football against the Falcons last week. Their defense has to be tired, too, after surrendering 37 points and 465 total yards to the Falcons. Their stop unit spent most of the second half on the field and looked to be worn down as the Falcons scored 30 points after intermission.

Kyle Orton should have a big game against this Green Bay defense. Orton has stabilized the offense, going 5-4 as a starter this season. He is completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,355 yards with 14 touchdowns and only seven interceptions on the year. He threw for a season-high 355 yards against a very good Broncos defense last week.

Plays against road teams (GREEN BAY) – after scoring 30 points or more last game against opponent after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 89-47 (65.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a .500 or better road record. The home team is 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings in this series dating back to 1994.  Green Bay has never won in Buffalo in five trips there.  Take the Bills Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Browns PK

I don’t think the switch to Johnny Manziel at quarterback will have a huge impact on this game, but it was time to make the move nonetheless. Brian Hoyer had led just one touchdown drive in his last 29 series. Manziel will give the offense a spark this week, and the Browns have the element of surprise with him at quarterback over Hoyer. While I’m not sure this will be the right move for the team long-term, for one week I do believe it is the right move and will pan out.

This Cleveland offense will continue to perform at about a league-average level. It ranks 13th in the NFL in total offense at 353.8 yards per game. But the reason I’m siding with the Browns in this one is more due to their defense than anything. They are giving up a very respectable 20.8 points per game this season and will shut down this Cincinnati offense just as they did the last time these teams met up.

Cleveland (7-6) throttled Cincinnati 24-3 on the road back on November 6th. This game was every bit the blowout as the final score would indicate. The Browns outgained the Bengals 368-165 for the game, or by 203 total yards. Andy Dalton went just 10 of 33 for 86 yards with three interceptions in the worst performance of his career. He even had a healthy A.J. Green in that game, so there was no excuse. Green finished with three receptions for 23 yards.

That was a rare win for the road team in this series, too. Home-field advantage has been huge in this series over the past five-plus seasons. The home team has won eight of the last 10 meetings. The Browns have won three of their last four home meetings with the Bengals with the last two coming via blowout. They won 17-6 at home last year and 34-24 at home in 2012. They have held the Bengals to 266 total yards or less in each of their last three meetings as this defense simply has Dalton and company figured out.

Another big reason why I’m backing the Browns in this one is because the Bengals are arguably the most overrated team in the NFL. Yes, they’re in first place in the AFC North with an 8-4-1 record, but they’re nowhere near as good as their record would indicate. Most teams would have a losing record with the numbers they have put up.

Cincinnati ranks 24th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 29.3 yards per game this season. Eight of the 10 teams ranked 23rd or worse in yardage differential have losing records this season, with only the Bengals and Cardinals as the exceptions. Arizona is also an overrated team.

The biggest culprit for this poor performance in yardage differential is the defense.  The Bengals are surrendering 22.2 points and 377.5 yards per game to rank a woeful 28th in the league in total defense.  They gave up 42 points and 543 total yards in a 21-point loss to the Steelers last week.  With a stop unit like that, the Bengals have no staying power and will be bumped from the AFC North lead by season's end.  It starts this week against a desperate Browns team fighting for their playoff lives.

Cleveland is 4-3 at home this season with two of its three losses coming by a combined three points to Baltimore (24-26) and Indianapolis (24-25).  That's how close this is to being a 6-1 team at home, so obviously, the Browns have played great at home this year.  They are limiting opponents to just 19.3 points per game at home in 2014.

Cincinnati is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival. The Bengals are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games off a loss by 21 or more points. The Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. Cincinnati is 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Cincinnati.  Take the Browns Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon Line Mistake on Houston Texans +7

I really like the toughness that the Houston Texans (7-6) have shown over their last four games to put themselves in position to make the playoffs. They have won three of their last four and the three victories haven’t even been close. They went on the road and beat both Cleveland (23-7) and Jacksonville (27-13), while also topping Tennessee (45-21) at home. Their lone loss came to Cincinnati (13-22) in a game where it was announced after that Ryan Mallett was playing with a torn pectoral muscle.

This Houston defense has really come alive during this stretch. It has given up an average of just 15.8 points per game in its last four games as this is one of the most underrated stop units in the league. The offense has really received a boost from the return of Arian Foster from a two-game absence. He returned the last two weeks, and to no surprise, the Texans have scored an average of 36.0 points per game in their last two.

Foster is having a huge year despite missing three games due to injury. He has rushed for 1,028 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.0 per carry, while also catching 33 balls for 276 yards and four scores. This offense goes as he goes. The Texans are 6-4 in games that Foster has started this year. They rushed for 173 yards on the Jaguars last week and currently sit at 4th in the league in rushing at 137.1 yards per game.

The Colts have been extremely vulnerable defensively in 2014. They rank 18th in the league in total defense, allowing 23.6 points and 355.8 yards per game on the season. That’s not the sign of a team with staying power when it comes to the playoffs. They have not been very good against the run as they allow an average of 4.4 yards per carry.

Foster rushed for 109 yards and two touchdowns on the Colts in their 28-33 home loss to Indianapolis back on October 9th. The Texans had their chances to win that game, but they committed two costly fumbles on their final two drives. Both drives ended in turnovers, and both were as they were trying to take the lead with a game-winning touchdown late. I believe they’ll be within a touchdown late in this one with a chance to win as well.

Houston has played its best football on the road this season.  It is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in seven road games.  It is scoring 23.9 points per game and giving up just 18.6 points per game on the road.  It is actually outscoring teams by an average of 5.3 points per game away from home.  That really just shows how tough the Texans are mentally to be able to go on the road in this league and play that well.

Adding extra motivation for the Texans is that they have not won in Indianapolis in 12 all-time meetings.  "We're well aware that we have not won there," Texans coach Bill O'Brien said. If that's not motivation, then I don't know what is.  Simply put, the Texans are going to be playing more inspired football this week than they have shown all season.

Turnovers could swing in the the Texans' favor in this one as well.  The Colts turned the ball over four times against the Browns last week in a fortunate 25-24 road win.  They have lost seven of 13 fumbles and had three passes picked off over the last three weeks.  They rely so much on Andrew Luck that their offense has become rather predictable, and opposing teams have been able to get pressure on him.  Houston has one of the best front fours in the league and will get plenty of pressure with J.J. Watt and company.

Plays on any team (HOUSTON) – after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed three or more turnovers are 72-47 (60.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Houston is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  Roll with the Texans Sunday.

25* AFC East GAME OF THE YEAR on New England Patriots -7

The New England Patriots are on a mission to get that No. 1 seed in the AFC because they know their chances of reaching the Super Bowl are greatly increased if the AFC runs through Foxborough. They even went out to San Diego as a team for the entire week after their loss to the Packers in Week 13 and made it a business trip. That experience with an entire week together will only grow the bond between these players. It was amazing to see the emotion the Patriots showed once they had beaten the Chargers 23-14; it was almost like they had just won the Super Bowl.

New England (10-3) has been playing as well as anyone for a couple months now. It has won eight of its last nine games overall with six of those wins coming by 15 points or more. That includes wins over the likes of Cincinnati (43-17) and Denver (42-20) at home, as well as road wins over Indianapolis (42-20) and Buffalo (37-22). The Patriots are scoring 35.4 points per game and allowing just 19.7 points per game in their last nine games, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 15.7 points per game during this stretch.

Miami has lost three of its last five games and has not played well at all over this span. It has been outgained in four of those five games, including by 123 yards in loss to Detroit, by 137 yards in a loss to Denver, and by 198 yards in a 15-point loss to Baltimore last week. It was even outgained by the Jets by 35 yards and was lucky to escape with a 16-13 road win in that contest thanks to a last-minute touchdown.

New England just held a high-powered San Diego offense to only 14 points and 216 total yards. That’s bad news for a Miami offense that has really hit the skids in recent weeks. The Dolphins have been held to 16 or fewer points in three of their last five games. They only managed 249 total yards against Baltimore, 291 total yards against New York, 228 total yards against Detroit, and 313 total yards against Denver in four of their last five games.

Tom Brady has a 45-7 career record in the month of December, which is the best of any quarterback to ever play the game. New England is 6-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.4 points per game this year. It is putting up 35.7 points and 408.2 total yards at Gillette Stadium, while allowing just 17.3 points per game there. These two trends are simply too hard to ignore and would be foolish to bet against.

Plus, the Patriots want revenge on the Dolphins, so they certainly will not be looking past them.  The Patriots are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 games when revenging a same-season loss.  In their last 10 games in same-season revenge situations, they are 9-0-1 ATS while covering the spread by an average of 10.0 points per game.

The Dolphins are really hurting in the secondary right now, which could allow Brady to have a monster game against them. They just lost arguably their best player on D in safety Louis Delmas to a season-ending knee injury. Cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan and Jamar Taylor have been out since Week 11 and Week 13, respectively, and both are questionable to return this week. The loss of Delmas is huge, and if Finnegan and Taylor both don’t play, it would just be an added bonus.

While Brady has been tearing it up through the air, you might find that the Patriots dominate this game on the ground just as much.  That's because the Dolphins have been shredded up front defensively in recent weeks.  In their last three games, they allowed 201 rushing yards to the Broncos, 277 to the Jets, and 183 to the Ravens for an average of 220.3 rushing yards per game.

The Patriots are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60%.  New England is 6-0 ATS in home games against teams with winning records over the last two seasons, winning in these spots by 16.6 points per game. New England is 7-0 ATS in home games against good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61% or better over the last two seasons.  Add the 9-0 ATS trend on same-season revenge, and we have a perfect 22-0 system backing New England here.  Bet the Patriots Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Night Line Mistake on Orlando Magic +3.5

This is a classic home-and-home situation here between Orlando and Atlanta.  These teams played last night in Atlanta with the Hawks coming away with an 87-81 home victory.  I backed the Magic +8 with success in that game, and I'll turn around and back them again here.

You almost always want to take the team that lost the first game of a home-and-home situation in the second game no matter the location.  That's because the team that lost the first game is going to be highly motivated for revenge, while the team that won the first game finds it hard to be motivated to beat a team two days in a row.

Orlando is a team that is better than its 9-16 record would indicate.  It has gone 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games overall.  It has also gone 3-4 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.   The Magic beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also suffering close road losses to Golden State (97-98) and Atlanta (81-87), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this stretch.

Atlanta was a team that was clearly undervalued coming into the year.  But, after a 16-6 start and a current nine-game winning streak coming into this one, there's no question that the Hawks are overvalued right now.  They should not be laying any points to the Magic tonight.  All nine of the Hawks' wins during their streak have come against teams with .500 or worse records.

One key here is that Orlando is expected to have its best player back after a five-game absence.  Leading scorer and rebounder Nikola Vucevic (18.6 ppg, 11.7 rpg) has missed the last five games with a back injury, including last night's game, but he is listed as probable for this one.  He'll give this team a huge boost, especially since this is the second of a back-to-back situation.

The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  Orlando is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  The underdog is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.  The Magic are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take Orlando Saturday.

20* CBB Mid-Major GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Iowa +7.5

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 9-0 to this point in the season and have just recently moved into the Top 25.  That includes wins on a neutral court over VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42), as well as road win at Stephen F. Austin (79-77) and Denver (65-55).

Northern Iowa is one of the best defensive teams in the country.  It gives up just 55.2 points per game on 39.0% shooting.  It only turns the ball over 12 times per game, which is huge because VCU loves to press.  UNI's guards will be able to handle that press in this one.

It's clear that VCU is not the same team that it was a year ago.  It is clearly down this year at 5-3 while going 2-5 ATS.  It has some really bad losses along the way.  It lost to Villanova 53-77 on a neutral court, Old Dominion 67-73 on the road, and Virginia 57-74 at home.  It is simply overvalued due to what it has done in the NCAA Tournament in the past.  This may not be a tournament team in 2014-15.

Last year, Northern Iowa had a worse team than VCU but won 77-68 at home despite being a 5-point underdog.  It shot 53.1% from the field and held the Rams to just 36.9% shooting.  It did turn the ball over 16 times, but that's not a bad number against this VCU defense.  Also, with all five starters back, the Panthers know what to expect from the Rams.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (N IOWA) - after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after a loss by 15 points or more are 66-31 (68%) ATS since 1997.  Northern Iowa is 9-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 29-12 ATS in road games off four or more consecutive wins.  VCU is 1-9 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  Bet Northern Iowa Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -3.5

Yes, this game between Kansas and Utah is being played on a neutral court.  However, it won't be neutral at all as it will be played inside the Sprint Center in Kansas City, MO.  It will certainly be a pro-Kansas crowd to say the least, and these players are used to this venue considering it's where the Big 12 Tournament is played.

I really like what I've seen from this Kansas team since an ugly loss to Kentucky back on November 18th.  It has gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall as this young team has grown up on a hurry.  All six wins came by 5 points or more, including road wins over Michigan State (61-56), Rhode Island (76-60) and Georgetown (75-70), as well as a home win over Florida (71-65).

Utah is definitely a team to keep your eye on in terms of making the NCAA Tournament with four starters back this year.  It is off to a 7-1 start, but it has done most of its damage at home.  It is just 1-1 on the road with a loss at San Diego State and a win over BYU.  It is being overvalued right now because it also beat Wichita State (69-68) by a single point at home.

The Utes only currently have three starters back because their second-leading scorer in Jordan Loveridge (11.5 ppg) is out for a month with a knee injury.  His scoring is going to be hard to replace because he helps the offense space the floor so well as he shoots 50.0% from 3-point range.  Without Loveridge, the Utes stand no chance of keeping this 'road' game close against Kansas.

Utah is 22-51 ATS in its last 73 road games off two straight games where it had five or fewer steals.  The Jayhawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off two straight wins by 6 points or less.  Kansas is 8-1 ATS versus slow-down teams that average 53 or less shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Big 12 foes.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  These last three trends combine for an 18-1 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Saturday.

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 59.5

I believe the books have set a very good spread in this game.  They know that the betting public is going to be on Navy due to its 12-game winning streak in this series, so they set the spread above two touchdowns to try and slow down the money coming in on the Midshipmen.  While I still believe Navy is probably the right side, I find more value in backing the total in this game.

Army and Navy are very familiar with one another.  They both run the triple-option offense, so neither team is going to be surprised by what they see.  That's why year after year the final combined score usually finishes UNDER the number.  Another reason for this is the fact that both teams have had a ton of time off in between games, which helps them in preparation.  Navy last played on November 28th, while Army last played on November 22nd.

Indeed, this has been a very low-scoring series.  The UNDER is a perfect 8-0 in the last eight meetings between Army and Navy.  They have combined for 41, 30, 48, 48, 20, 34, 41, and 40 points in their last eight meetings, respectively.  As you can see, they have not topped 48 combined points in any of those eight meetings.  In fact, they are averaging a combined 37.8 points per game during this stretch, which is roughly 22 points less than this posted total of 59.5.

When two teams run the ball as much as these two do, the clock is going to be moving continuously, which aids the under.  Army averages 56 rush attempts and 9 pass attempts per game, while Navy averages 56 rush attempts and 10 pass attempts per contest.  So, Army runs the ball 86% of the time, while Navy runs the ball 85% of the time.  There will be very few incomplete passes in this game to stop the clock.

Army is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  Navy is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage from 25% to 40% over the last three years.  The Midshipmen are 10-1 to the UNDER versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three seasons.  Navy is 6-0 to the UNDER off a road win over the last three years.  Throw in that the UNDER is 8-0 in the last eight meetings, and these five trends combine for a 38-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Note - I released this play on Monday knowing that the total in Army/Navy was going to go down from the 59.5-point opener.  I still recommend a bet on the UNDER at anything 55 or above.  Thanks.

15* Warriors/Mavs NBA Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Dallas +1.5

The Golden State Warriors are the single-most overrated team in the NBA at this point in the season because they own the league's best record at 17-2.  Now, they actually find themselves favored on the road against one of the best teams in the West in Dallas.

Dallas is among the league's best in field-goal shooting at 48.2 percent and averages an NBA-best 110.5 points.  It has scored at least 105 points in nine straight games while going 7-2 during this stretch.

The Mavericks are 9-3 at home this season where their 115.5 points per game scored leads the NBA as well.  Home-court advantage has been big in this series as well.  The home team has won five of the last six meetings.

Dallas is 36-18 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Mavericks are 53-24 ATS in their last 77 games following a ATS loss.  Dallas is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with the Mavericks Saturday.

20* NBA Friday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans look to get back to .500 as they host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in a big game for them.  I look for the Pelicans to take it to the Cavaliers, who have nothing left in the tank right now.

Cleveland will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  The Cavaliers exerted a lot of energy last night in a 94-103 loss to the Thunder.  They were down 20 in the second half and fought back to get within 3, but ultimately lost by 9.

Plus, Lebron James missed last night's game with knee soreness.  He is questionable to play tonight as well.  Whether he plays or not I still recommend a play on the Pelicans, but if he doesn't that will only be an added bonus.

The Pelicans have had the Cavaliers' number in recent meetings.  They have won six of their last eight meetings with Cleveland.  Home-court advantage has also been big in this series.  The home team has won four of the last five meetings with the only exception being a Pelicans' 100-89 road win last year.

The Pelicans are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.  New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  New Orleans is 6-2 at home this season, outscoring teams by 10.6 points per game.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +8

The Orlando Magic are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  It has gone 9-15 SU this season, but a very profitable 14-10 ATS as it has been very competitive in most of its game.  Eight of its losses have come by 8 points or less.

The Magic are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have gone 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games.  They beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96) all on the road, while also suffering a close road loss to Golden State (97-98), and a close home loss to Washington (89-91) during this stretch.

Atlanta was a team that was clearly undervalued coming into the year.  But, after a 15-6 start and a current eight-game winning streak coming into this one, there's no question that the Hawks are overvalued right now.  They should not be laying 8 points to the Magic tonight.  All eight wins during their streak have come against teams with losing records.

Orlando split the season series with Atlanta last season while going 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS.  Its two losses came by 3 and 10 points, while its two wins came by 17 and 7 points.  So, it actually outscored the Hawks in their four meetings last year.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The underdog is 15-6 ATS int he last 21 meetings.

Plays against home favorites (ATLANTA) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Friday nights are 80-42 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Orlando is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with winning records.  The Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5

The Brooklyn Nets are playing horrible right now amidst all of their trade rumors.  Nets' management has been open about trading Joe Johnson, Deron Williams and Brook Lopez to free up salary cap space.  They just traded Andrei Kirilenko and Jorge Guitierrez to the 76ers for Brandon Davies on Thursday.

Both Johnson and Lopez sat out a 105-80 loss to Chicago on Wednesday.  Both were expected to play coming into that game, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit if each just decided to sit amidst the trade rumors.  This is a team in serious disarray right now, and one that cannot be trusted to bring their "A" game to the floor on a nightly basis until these trade rumors blow over.

The Nets have been an absolute embarrassment here of late, which is probably what prompted the rumors.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, with home losses to Atlanta by 23 and Cleveland by 22, as well as that road loss to the Bulls by 25.  So, they have been outscored by a combined 70 points in their last three and by an average of 23.3 points per game.

The 76ers, meanwhile, have shown a lot of fight here of late.  They have gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall to make backers a lot of money.  Six of their last nine games have been decided by 8 points or less.  That includes narrow losses to some good teams in Dallas (103-110) and San Antonio (103-109).

This has been a very closely-contested series here of late.  The 76ers are 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Nets as they have played them very tough.  In fact, each of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by 8 points or less, and by a combined 19 points total.  The 76ers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Brooklyn.

Brooklyn is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four coming in.  The 76ers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The 76ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the 76ers Friday.

15* Cardinals/Rams NFL Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 41

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between St. Louis and Arizona.  These are two of the best defenses in the NFL up against two of the worst offenses in the league.  I'll gladly side with the UNDER 41 points in this NFC West rivalry game.

St. Louis has shut out back-to-back opponents.  It is playing as well defensively as any team in the NFL right now.  It held Oakland to 244 total yards and Washington to 206 total yards.  Since Chris Long returned from injury, this stop unit has taken its game to the next level.

One of the most shocking facts about how well this defense is playing is that it has not allowed an opponent to run a play inside its own 20-yard line in three of its past four games. The Rams have now gone 128 minutes and 20 seconds without allowing an opponent to score. Since Week 7, the Rams have 34 sacks, which is the most in the league over that period of time.

Arizona ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 18.3 points per game.  It has allowed 19 or fewer points in five of its last six games overall.  It has been relying on its defense all season, and that stop unit is the only reason it has a 10-3 record right now.  It's certainly not because of the offense.

Arizona ranks 23rd in the league in total offense at 325.3 yards per game.  It has been even worse with Drew Stanton at quarterback here of late.  The Cardinals have been held to 18 or fewer points in each of their last four games.  They are averaging a mere 13.0 points per game in their last four.

St. Louis hasn't been any better offensively.  It ranks just 27th in the league in total offense, averaging only 317.2 yards per game this season.  Yes, the Rams have been putting up some decent scoring numbers here of late, but that has been mostly due to their defense creating easy opportunities.  Arizona only averages 1.0 turnovers per game and won't be giving up easy opportunities.

Yes, Arizona and St. Louis combined for 45 points in their first meeting in a 31-14 Cardinals victory at home.  However, the Cardinals scored two defensive touchdowns over the last 5 minutes to push the final combined score over the number.  The Rams managed just 244 total yards while the Cardinals had 335.  I'll take my chances that there won't be two defensive touchdowns in the rematch.

Arizona is 12-4 to the UNDER as an underdog over the last two seasons.  St. Louis is 6-0 to the UNDER in December games over the last two years.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Rams last 27 December games dating back further.  The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in this series.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Cavs/Thunder TNT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City -2.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in what will be a raucous atmosphere for the home team.  This will be just the second home game all season where both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been healthy.

The first went very well as the Thunder dismantled the Bucks 114-101 on Tuesday as 10-point favorites.  I was on them in that game, and I'm on them again here for many of the same reasons.

The Thunder are now at full strength health-wise with Durant and Westbrook back.  Their time away allowed several role players on this team to grow their games, which will only make them stronger as a team going forward.  They have won five of their last six games coming in.

Cleveland is overvalued here due to its eight-game winning streak coming into this game.  This streak followed a 6-7 start.  It has mostly come against a very weak schedule as the wins have come against the Magic, Wizards, Pacers, Bucks, Knicks, Nets and Raptors (twice).  The Thunder are the best team they have played since a home loss to San Antonio on November 19th.

The Cavs are 14-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 after failing to cover the spread in 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  The Thunder are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  OKC is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games.  The home team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.  Bet the Thunder Thursday.

Note - I still recommend a play on the Thunder -6.5 with Lebron James out.

15* CBB In-State Rivalry Play on Colorado -5.5

The Colorado Buffaloes are a team I circled as one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into 2014-15.  They returned four starters from last year's team that made the NCAA Tournament, and they didn't even enter the season in the Top 25.

Colorado went 16-2 at home last season where it scored an average of 77.2 points per game on 46.5% shooting.  It has picked up right where it left off at home, going a perfect 5-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average of 17.8 points per game.  All five of its home wins have come by at least 9 points, including wins over Auburn (90-59), Drexel (65-48), Air Force (68-53) and San Francisco (72-55).

The Buffaloes have gotten great production from all four of their returning starters.  Jeff Scott (16.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 2.0 bpg) is a future NBA talent.  Askia Booker (12.6 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 2.9 apg), Xavier Johnson (11.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Wesley Gordon (6.7 ppg, 5.9 rpg) are the other three returning starters who have played well.

Colorado State is one of the most overrated teams in the country at this point in the season due to its 8-0 start to 2014-15.  Well, that 8-0 start has comea gainst an extremely soft schedule.  Its eight wins have come against Montana, Georgia State, Mercer, Missouri State, Pacific, UC-Santa Barbara, UTEP and Northern Colorado.

This will be the first true road game of the season for the Rams, which is a spot where teams usually tend to struggle.  Remember, this is a team that went just 16-16 last year, and I don't believe they are that much better with three starters back from that team.

Colorado is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Colorado State.  It has won 70-61, 90-83 and 75-56 in its last three home meetings, respectively, as all three have come by 7 points or more.

Colorado State is 2-12 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 0-8 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Rams are 3-12-1 ATS int heir last 16 non-conference games.  Colorado State is 5-21-2 ATS in its last 28 games following a win.  The Buffaloes are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.  Colorado State is 5-16 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  Take Colorado Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -3

The Northern Iowa Panthers are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are a real threat to challenge Wichita State for the Missouri Valley Conference Title this season, and that's no joke.

This is a Northern Iowa team that went just 16-15 last year, but one that will be one of the most improved in the country in 2014.  That's because it returns all five starters from last year and almost all of its key reserves as well.

The starters back are G Matt Bohannon (9.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg last year), F Marvin Singleton (3.4 ppg, 2.5 rpg), F Seth Tuttle (15.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg), G Wes Washpun (8.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg) and G Deon Mitchell (12.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg).

Also back are Jeremy Morgan (6.0 ppg, 2.7 rpg) and Nate Buss (10.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  The Panthers have also added in Virginia transfer Paul Jesperson and four other redshirts, and I expect them to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2011.

The Panthers are off to a great start at accomplishing that feat.  They are 8-0 to this point in the season and have just recently moved into the Top 25.  That includes wins on a neutral court over VA Tech (73-54) and Northwestern (61-42), as well as a road win at Stephen F. Austin (79-77).

Northern Iowa is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and defense travels with you.  It is giving up just 55.2 points per game on 38.1% shooting.  It is scoring a mediocre 67.7 points per game, but has been efficient in making 46.1% of its shots.

Denver is improved as well off a 16-15 campaign last year with four returning starters this year.  However, it is just 4-3 to start the season with its four wins coming against Idaho State, Coppin State, New Orleans and Texas A&M Corpus Christi. 

The Pioneers have been blown out against the three best opponents they have played in St. Mary's (62-78), Belmont (57-78) and Wyoming (42-68).  If they can't hang with those teams, they stand little chance of keeping this game close against the Panthers tonight.

Northern Iowa is 8-1 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Panthers are 28-12 ATS in their last 40 road games following four or more consecutive wins.  Denver is 6-17 ATS off a non-conference game over the last three years.  Northern Iowa is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Pioneers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Roll with Northern Iowa Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +5

I really like the mental and physical state of the Orlando Magic coming into this one.  They have had three days' rest since last playing on Saturday and will be well-rested and ready to go.  This extra time has allowed their best player, Nikola Vucevic, to get healthy.

Vucevic has missed the last four games, but he's probably to return tonight.  He and the rest of these players are going to want revenge after losing the first two meetings of the season with the Washington Wizards by a combined 12 points.  They lost 98-105 on the road and 93-98 at home.

Washington, on the other hand, will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team that it has already beaten twice.  That's especially the case with a bigger game against the Clippers on deck.  Plus, the Wizards are the more tired team as this will be their 3rd game in 4 days.  That includes a double-OT win over Boston (133-132) at home Monday.

Orlando has been playing well of late even without Vucevic.  It has gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  It went on the road and beat Phoenix (93-90), Utah (98-93) and Sacramento (105-96), while also suffering a one-point loss at Golden State (97-98), which currently owns the league's best record.

The Wizards are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Magic are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  Orlando is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games following an ATS win.  Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* Louisville/Indiana ESPN No-Brainer on Indiana +12

The No. 4 Ranked Louisville Cardinals are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They returned just two starters from a team that went 31-6 last year and certainly will not be as good in 2014-15.

Those two returning starters are Chris Jones (10.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg) and Montrezl Harrell (14.0 ppg, 8.4 rpg), who are good ones.  However, the losses of Russ Smith (18.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and Luke Hancock (12.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg) cannot be overstated.

Louisville has pretty much beaten up on a soft schedule en route to a 7-0 start.  Two of its three closest wins have come against Big Ten opponents in Minnesota (81-68) and Ohio State (64-55).  I believe that Indiana is better than both Minnesota and Ohio State this year.

The Hoosiers will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They returned two starters this year, including their top scorer from last season in Yogi Ferrell (17.3 ppg, 3.9 apg last year), who just does everything for this team.

Ferrelly (17.2 ppg, 5.4 apg, 3.4 rpg) has picked up where he left off last year.  James Blackmon Jr. (19.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg) is one of the best freshmen in the country.  He is hitting 54.2% from 3-point range.  Troy Williams (12.2 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and Robert Johnson (11.1 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.9 apg) have also helped give the Hoosiers balanced scoring among their starting lineup.

Indiana has gotten off to a 7-1 start this season.  It has beaten two of the better teams in the country along the way.  It topped SMU 74-68 at home despite being a 1-point underdog in that contest.  It also throttled Pittsburgh 81-69 at home as only a 2.5-point favorite.

I really like this matchup for the Hoosiers.  Their offense is explosive in averaging 88.4 points per game on 52.4% shooting.  They do not turn the ball over, only averaging 12 turnovers per game.  That's huge because Louisville thrives on forcing turnovers in its pressing scheme.  It forces 20 turnovers per game. 

The Hoosiers have tremendous guards and will not be phased by the press one bit.  In fact, I expect them to beat it with regularity and to get some easy buckets as a result.  Ferrell, Blackmon Jr. and Johnson are all guards who take care of the basketball and can fill up the score sheet.

Louisville is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 vs. explosive offensive teams that score 84 or more points per game.  Tom Crean is 38-22 ATS off two straight wins by 10 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Cardinals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Louisville is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Indiana Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5

To say it's going to be a rowdy atmosphere in Oklahoma City tonight would be a massive understatement.  The Thunder faithful will be out in full fledge tonight to support Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.  This will be the first home game of the season where both of these superstars have suited up.

The Thunder have gone 4-1 in their last four games overall.  Westbrook has played in four of those games, while Durant has played in the last three.  These two have showed little rust.  Wesbrook is averaging 23.7 points, 6.5 assists and 5.3 rebounds, while Durant is averaging 21.7 points.  They'll both only continue to get stronger as the season goes on.

Milwaukee is overvalued at this point in the season due to its surprising 11-11 start.  It has started to show a lot of vulnerability in its last five games as the schedule has ramped up.  It has lost four of its last five games with its only win coming against Miami.  It was beaten handily at Dallas 102-125 on Sunday, and a similar beat down can be expected at the hands of the Thunder tonight.

OKC is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Milwaukee in which both Durant has played.  It has won by 16, 13, 10 and 20 points in those four games for an average margin of victory of 14.8 points per game.  Three of those four wins came on the road, with the 16-point victory coming at home.

The Thunder are 7-0 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive underdogs this season.  Oklahoma City is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four games coming in.  The Thunder are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Bucks are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 trips to Oklahoma City.  Roll with the Thunder Tuesday.

20* Villanova/Illinois ESPN GAME OF THE WEEK on Villanova -4

The Villanova Wildcats are one of the best teams in college basketball, but somehow they continue to go under the radar.  They should be much more than a 4-point favorite tonight against Illinois in this showdown inside Madison Square Garden.

The Wildcats quietly went 29-5 last year and won the Big East regular season title with a 16-2 record.  With four starters back from that team, they are arguably better in 2014-15.  They have opened the season a perfect 8-0 and are currently the No. 7 ranked team in the country.

The four returning starters are Darrun Hilliard (14.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), JayVaughn Pinkston (14.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg), Ryan Arcidiacono (9.9 ppg, 3.5 apg) and Daniel Ochefu (5.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg).  What has been amazing about this start is that the Wildcats have been much more balanced this year and have gotten contributions elsewhere.

Dylan Ennis (12.2 ppg, 4.4 rpg this year) leads the team in scoring.  Hilliard (10.5 ppg) and Pinkston (8.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg) haven't had to do as much.  Kris Jenkins (9.1 ppg) and Josh Hart (8.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg) have joined Ennis as key contributors that maybe not many expected they would be coming into the season.

The Wildcats have not only played cupcakes, either.  Their wins over VCU (77-53) and Michigan (60-55) on neutral courts prove that they are for real.  They are scoring 75.4 points per game and allowing just 55.7 points per contest, outscoring the opposition by nearly 20 points per game on the season.

Illinois was expected to be improved in the Big Ten this season after going 20-15 last year.  That's because they returned all five starters from that squad.  Unfortunately for them, Tracy Abrams (10.3 ppg, 3.2 apg) suffered a season-ending knee injury in November and is out for the season, giving them essentially four returning starters.

Rayvonte Rice (15.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg last year) is their best returning starter by far.  But Nnanna Egwu (6.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg), Malcolm Hill (4.4 ppg, 2.4 rpg) and Kendrick Nunn (6.2 ppg) are counted as their other three returning starters, which is not very impressive in my book.

Illinois has gotten off to a solid 7-1 start this season, but it has come against mostly weak competition.  Its seven wins have come against the likes of Georgia Southern, Coppin State, Austin Peay, Brown, Indiana State, Baylor and American.  Its lone loss came in its only true road game in a 61-70 setback at Miami, which is the best team it has played yet.  Villanova is better than Miami.

Villanova is a sensational 44-19 ATS in its last 63 games overall.  The Wildcats are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.  Villanova is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten foes.  Bet Villanova Tuesday.

25* Monday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +13

The Atlanta Falcons have been playing their best football of the season of late. They have won three of their last four games with their only loss coming on a last-second field goal to Cleveland (24-26). They have even won their last two road games with victories over the Bucs (27-17) and Panthers (19-17). They also beat the NFC West-leading Cardinals 29-18 at home last week in an effort that shows they can play with anyone.

The Falcons racked up a whopping 500 total yards on a very good Arizona defense last week. They also limited the Cardinals to just 18 points and 329 total yards. They have held three of their last four opponents to 18 points or fewer, so the defense is improving. Matt Ryan completed 30 of 41 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals. Steven Jackson had one of his best games as a Falcon, rushing for 101 yards on just 18 carries.

Green Bay is in a massive letdown spot here. It played in arguably the biggest game in the NFL in Week 13 against the Patriots, and it came away with a 26-21 home victory. It’s simply going to be hard for them to bring the same kind of emotion to this game. It will need to play almost a perfect game to put the Falcons away by two touchdowns or more, which is what it would take to cover this ridiculous 13-point spread. The Packers are simply a public team that the public backs no matter what, forcing the oddsmakers to set this number higher than it should be.

Atlanta is fully capable of keeping up with Green Bay in a shootout. It is putting up 24.2 points and 374.0 yards per game to rank 9th in the NFL in total offense. It is only slightly behind the Packers, who rank 8th in total offense at 377.9 yards per game. The Packers are going to surrender points in this one because their defense simply isn’t that good. They rank 25th in the league in total defense, allowing an average of 366.8 yards per game.

Obviously, Atlanta is just 5-7 on the season. However, it is in a tie for first place in the NFC South, so it has everything to play for at this point in the season. The Falcons are getting treated like a 5-7 team with this 13-point spread, too. They aren’t getting treated like the team they are right now, which is one that has won three of their last five games with their two losses coming by a combined three points to playoff contenders in Detroit (21-22) and Cleveland (24-26).

The Falcons are a perfect 8-0 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last two seasons. They are winning by an average of 7.1 points per game in this spot. The Packers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five December games.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) – after three or more consecutive wins, in the second half of the season are 40-15 (72.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against favorites of 10.5 or more points (GREEN BAY) – after beating the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in the second half of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +9

This is a home-and-home situation tonight between the Celtics and Wizards.  I backed the Celtics are 4-point underdogs with success yesterday as they beat the Wizards 101-93 at home.

I know that the Wizards will be out for revenge tonight in this back-to-back situation, but how many points is revenge worth?  I don't believe it's worth as many points as the oddsmakers have put into this spread.  Asking the Wizards to win by double-digits to cover the spread is asking too much.

That's especially the case with the way the Celtics are playing right now.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Detroit (109-102), LA Lakers (113-96) and Washington (101-93).  I believe the Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the league.

Boston has played a pretty brutal schedule during its 7-11 start and has several close losses against playoff teams along the way.  Seven of its 11 losses have come by 7 points or less, including road losses to Dallas (113-118) and Atlanta (105-109), as well as home losses to Toronto (107-110), Cleveland (121-122), Phoenix (114-118), Portland (88-94) and Chicago (102-109).

Washington, on the other hand, is way overvalued do to its 13-6 start to the season.  Its schedule has been much easier.  Its 13 wins have come against Orlando (twice), Milwaukee (twice), New York, Indiana (twice), Detroit, Cleveland, New Orleans, Miami, LA Lakers and Denver.  It only has one win against a team (Cleveland) that currently has a winning record.

The Celtics are 11-2 ATS in road games against good shooting teams that make at least 46% of their shots over the last two seasons.  Boston is 15-5 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% over the last three years.  The Celtics are 13-4 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last two seasons.  Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Roll with the Celtics Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers PK

The Indiana Pacers are showing excellent value tonight as a pick 'em against the Atlanta Hawks.  This team has done a great job of staying competitive despite all of the injuries early in the season, and they are finally getting healthy now.

David West recently returned from injury to give the lineup a big boost.  The Pacers come in undervalued due to having lost four in a row, but those four all came on the road against currently playoff contenders Cleveland, Phoenix, Portland and Sacramento.  Add road games at Dallas and San Antonio, and this has been a brutal stretch over the past seven games.

Atlanta comes in overvalued due to its current six-game winning streak.  Its schedule has been much easier during this stretch, and it has done most of its damage at home this season.  It is 9-2 at home compared to just 4-4 on the road.

The Hawks are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days, which is one of the most difficult situations in the NBA.  The Pacers, meanwhile, will be well-rested and ready to go since they come in on two days' rest.  They'll be highly motivated to put an end to this four-game losing streak as well.

Plays against road underdogs (ATLANTA) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season, after allowing 85 points or less two straight games are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1996.  Indiana is 8-0 ATS following a non-conference game this season.  The Pacers are 52-32 ATS in their last 84 games following a loss, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a defeat.  Take the Pacers Monday.

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on UCLA -9.5

The UCLA Bruins have certainly been tested in the early going in 2014.  Their two losses have come to Oklahoma and North Carolina, which are two of the best teams in the country.  I believe they are undervalued right now because they lost to those two teams.

The Bruins have taken care of all other comers.  Their six wins this year have all come by 12 points or more, including a 77-63 home win over a very good Long Beach State team as a 10-point favorite, and a 73-45 home win over CS-Fullerton last time out as a 16-point favorite.

San Diego (4-4) has no business only catching single-digits against UCLA tonight.  The Toreros are coming off an 18-17 season last year and aren't much better in 2014.  They have lost to the four best teams they have played, and their four wins have come against SE Missouri State, Florida A&M, Western Michigan and Princeton.

The Bruins are 5-0 at home this season where they are outscoring foes by 24.6 points per game.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (UCLA) - team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 70-32 (68.6%) ATS since 1997. 

The Bruins are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite.  The Toreros are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Sunday games.  The Bruins are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Toreros are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 50 points in their previous game.  Roll with UCLA Sunday.

15* Seahawks/Eagles NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle +1

Mark Sanchez has actually played pretty well in his four starts with the Eagles, leading them to a 3-1 record. However, it has mostly come against a soft slate of defenses. The Panthers rank 17th in total defense, the Packers rank 25th, the Titans rank 30th, and the Cowboys rank 23rd. So, his four starts have come against four teams that rank in the bottom-half of the NFL in total defense.

Now, Sanchez will be up against the best defense in the NFL. Indeed, the Seahawks rank 1st in the league in total defense, allowing 285.8 yards per game. They are also 3rd against the pass (199.4 yards/game) and 5th against the run (86.3 yards/game), so they have no weaknesses. I look for Sanchez to really struggle in this one and to make some mistakes that will cost his team the game.

Seattle is surging right now, having won five of its last six games overall. It is now just one game behind Arizona for first place in the NFC West, and I fully expect it to win the division by season’s end with a strong finish. The Seahawks have allowed three points each in back-to-back wins over Arizona (19-3) and San Francisco (19-3) by the same margins. Both the Cardinals and 49ers have beaten the Eagles this year to hand them two of their three losses.

The Seahawks also allowing an average of 184.0 yards per game in their wins over the Cardinals and 49ers.  They have been absolutely dominant against the run in recent weeks.  They have held four of their last five opponents to under 65 rushing yards, and they've forced 11 turnovers in their last six.  Both Bobby Wagner and Kam Chancellor recently returned from injury to give the D a boost.  They should be able to shut down LeSean McCoy and the Eagles' running game.  Also, opposing quarterbacks have a 65.0  rating in their last six games, with only Eli Manning throwing for more than 200 yards.

Sanchez was 9 of 22 for 124 yards in his only matchup against the Seahawks and Pete Carroll, his former college coach.  Sanchez lost that game 28-7 as a member of the Jets back in 2012.  Carroll will have an advantage here because he coached against Chip Kelly in college and knows the system that Kelly likes to run.  Seattle has also won its last three meetings with the Eagles in Philadelphia.

While the Eagles have a very good offense, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. They are giving up 23.7 points and 366.2 yards per game this season to rank 24th in the league in total defense. Russell Wilson and company should have their way with this stop unit Sunday afternoon. Wilson leads a solid Seattle offense that is putting up 24.8 points and 361.0 yards per game this season. This unit is better than it gets credit for, and they don't make mistakes as Wilson has not thrown an interception in any of his last three games.

Seattle is 6-0 ATS when playing a team with a winning percentage greater than 75% in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Seahawks are a sensational 10-1 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. Seattle is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. Philadelphia is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics +4

The Boston Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA right now due to their 6-11 start.  I have no doubt this team is better than its record would indicate as it has played several of the top teams in the NBA very close all year.

Its 11 losses have comes to Houston, Dallas (by 5), Toronto (by 3), OKC, Cleveland (by 1) Phoenix (by 4), Memphis, Portland (by 6), Chicago (by 7), San Antonio and Atlanta (by 4).  All those close losses show that they can play with anyone.

Boston has finally been rewarded with a couple wins in a row for its solid play.  It beat Detroit 109-102 and followed that up with a 113-96 beat down of the Lakers last time out.  I look for it to extend its winning streak to three games tonight.

Washington (13-5) is one of the most overrated teams in the NBA right now due to its record.  It has simply benefited from playing 11 home games compared to 7 road games.  It is just 4-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by 2.4 points per game away from home.  Its four road wins have come against Orlando, New York, Indiana and Milwaukee, four of the worst teams in the NBA.

Plays on underdogs (BOSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games are 99-54 (64.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. Eastern Conference foes.  The Celtics are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

25* AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Bengals/Steelers UNDER 47

These division rivalry games always tend to be lower-scoring because teams know each other so well having played each other twice a season.  That becomes even more the case later in the year after teams have so much film on their opponents to study.  That extra film work certainly benefits the defenses a lot more than the offenses at this point in the season.  Both teams know each others' personnel, playing style and offensive systems.

Unders in division matchups have gone 575-521 (52.3%) since 2003.  To compare, unders in non-division matchups have gone 883-976 (47.5%) during that same span.  These two stats just show that this theory has some real proof, but a closer look at late-season games with higher totals in divisional matchups is where the real money is made.

Unders in divisional matchups with a total set of 39 and below in December or later are only 48-59 (44.9%) since 2003.  However, unders in divisional matchups with a total set of 39.5 and above in December or later are 161-111 (59.2%) since 2003.  That is some time-tested evidence that I believe carries some real weight here.

This total between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh has been set at 47, which is an enormous number.  Although the sample size is very small, the under in Pittsburgh/Cincinnati games has a record of 5-2 since 2003 when they meet after the start of December, compared to 7-8 in all other meetings during that same span.

I believe this number has been inflated due to Pittsburgh's 35-32 shootout with New Orleans last week.  Obviously, the Saints have a horrible defense but one of the best offenses in the league.  So, a high-scoring game was likely.  Cincinnati has a much worse offense but a better defense than New Orleans.

The Steelers rank 12th in the NFL in total defense, while the Bengals rank 10th in the league in scoring defense.  I believe these are two of the better stop units in the league.  While the Steelers are improved offensively this season, the Bengals are just 18th in the league in total offense.

However, Pittsburgh has done most of its offensive damage at home.  It has been a completely different story on the road.  The Steelers are only averaging 18.3 points per game away from home this season.  They managed just 10 points in Cleveland, 13 points at the New York Jets, 17 points at Jacksonville, and 6 points at Baltimore.

Cincinnati has been playing in some real low-scoring games of late.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cincinnati's last four games overall.  It has combined with each of its last four opponents for 37 or fewer points, and an average of 31.5 points per game.  That includes 37 combined points at New Orleans on November 16th as the Bengals limited the Saints to just 10 points in a 27-10 win.

Pittsburgh & Cincinnati have combined for 42 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  The only exception was a 30-20 win by the Steelers last year at home in a fluke high-scoring game.  The Bengals only had 279 yards, while the Steelers only had 290 yards in that game.  They have combined for an average of 36.7 points per game in their last seven meetings, which is 10.3 points per game less than this posted total of 47.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (PITTSBURGH) - after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, versus division opponents are 79-37 (68.1%) over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati is 7-0 to the UNDER vs. excellent ball control teams that average 32 or more possession minutes per game after 8-plus games over the last three seasons.

The Bengals are 7-0 to the UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 7.0 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Bengals last four games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Bengals last six games in the second half of the season vs. poor defensive teams that allow 6.0 yards per play or more.  These last four trends combined for a perfect 24-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Redskins +3

This is one of my favorite situations in the NFL. Whenever one team is coming off a blowout victory, while another team is coming off a blowout loss, there’s usually a ton of value to be had in backing the team coming off the blowout loss, and fading the one coming off the blowout win. I believe that’s precisely the case in this matchup as the Rams should not be 3-point road favorites over the Redskins in this one.

Washington is probably the most underrated team in the NFL at this point of the season due to its 3-9 record. This team has not quit as it keeps fighting. It only lost 13-17 at San Francisco two weeks ago, and it had its chances against Indianapolis last week. It got to within four points in the second half, but could not hang on as the Colts ran away with it late for a 49-27 victory.

That loss to the Colts wasn’t nearly the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Redskins were only outgained by 62 yards for the game and really should have only lost by single-digits. The difference was that the Colts scored touchdowns when they got into the red zone, not once having to settle for a field goal. The Redskins, on the other hand, had to settle for too many field goals and turned the ball over on downs too many times.

Conversely, the Rams’ 52-0 win over the Raiders wasn’t nearly the blowout that the final score would indicate. Usually, to win by that many points, you would have to dominate the box score and likely outgain a team by roughly 300 yards. That wasn’t the case at all as the Rams only outgained the Raiders by 104 yards for the game. St. Louis only racked up 348 total yards in the win. The difference was that the Raiders committed five turnovers and gave the Rams too many easy scoring opportunities.

The numbers indicate that the Redskins are the better team, period. The Redskins rank 8th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 26.2 yards per game. Of the top 17 teams in yardage differential, a whopping 15 of them have winning records on the season. That’s the kind of elite company the the Redskins are in this year, and their record should be much better than it is.

To compare, St. Louis ranks a woeful 27th in yardage differential. It is getting outgained by 40.3 yards per game, and it has been outgained by at least 60 years in seven of its last eight games overall.  The Rams are at least as bad as their 5-7 record would indicate, and probably worse. They have no business laying a field goal on the road this week given these numbers. But, the only reason they are is because the public perception on them is at an all-time high right now. It’s not warranted.

Washington is a much better team with Colt McCoy under center. He is completing a sensational 75.3 percent of his passes for 819 yards with four touchdowns and only one interception this year.

The Rams are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. excellent passing teams that average at least 7.5 yards per attempt. St. Louis is 12-28 ATS in its last 40 vs. NFC East opponents.  The Rams haven't won two games in a row all season as they have followed up every win with a loss.  Bet the Redskins Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10

Double-digit underdogs in the NFL have been a very good bet over time. The Buccaneers represent one of my favorite double-digit dogs this week because there are a plethora of them. They have been much better than their 2-10 record would indicate this season as they have rarely been blown out. I believe they will stay within double-digits of the Lions Sunday afternoon.

Eight of the Buccaneers’ 10 losses this season have come by 10 points or less. So, they have been in every game they have played aside from the blowout losses to the Ravens and Falcons. They are certainly better than a 2-10 team, but they just haven’t been rewarded in the win column. This team continues to put their hardhats on and come to play every Sunday, and I see no reason that will be any different in this game.

I really like what I’ve seen from the Buccaneers in recent weeks. They have actually outgained four of their last five opponents. They outgained Cleveland by 35 yards in a 17-22 loss, Atlanta by 51 yards in a 17-27 loss, Washington by 7 yards in a 27-7 win, and Chicago by 163 yards in a 13-21 loss. The only exception was last week as they were outgained by just 25 yards by the Bengals in a 13-14 home loss.

They had every chance to win that game, right down until the final few snaps when they were looking to get within field goal range for a game-winner.  It was another tremendous performance for the defense, which has been playing lights-out for weeks.  Indeed, the Bucs have allow an average of 18.3 points and 299.7 yards per game over their last six contests.

Detroit comes into this game overvalued off a blowout win over Chicago on Thanksgiving Day. I still consider the Lions to be one of the better teams in the league, but asking them to win by more than 10 points to cover this spread is asking too much. The betting public must be quick to overlook the two ugly losses by the Lions prior to that win over the Bears. They were outgained by 90 yards in a 6-14 road loss to Arizona, and by 104 yards in a 9-34 loss at New England.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series between Detroit and Tampa Bay. The road team has won four straight and eight of the last 11 meetings in this series. The Buccaneers went into Detroit and came away with a 24-21 road victory last year. This has also been a very closely-contested series. Eight of the last nine meetings have been decided by 7 points or less.  The Bucs have won five of their last six road meetings with the Lions.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) – bad team – outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after a loss by 6 or less points are 81-37 (68.6%) ATS since 1983. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TAMPA BAY) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Bucs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games after having lost six or seven of their last eight games coming in. The Lions are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring 30 points or more in their previous game. The Buccaneers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Detroit is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take the Buccaneers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on New York Jets +6

Neither of these teams really have much to play for at this point in the season. However, both showed that they will continue to fight as the Vikings beat the Panthers last week, while the Jets had the Dolphins dead in the water before losing on a last-second field goal. So, I do expect both teams to show up in this game as well despite the circumstances. From a value standpoint, it’s clear that the Jets are the right side in this one.

Minnesota has no business being this heavily-favored against a team that is pretty much its equal in New York. The reason the Vikings are laying 6 points is because the public perception on them is high right now after their 31-13 win over the Panthers. Well, that game was far from the blowout that the final score would indicate. The Vikings simply benefited from blocking two punts and returning both of them for touchdowns.

You can’t expect to get two special teams touchdowns every week, and that’s what it took for the Vikings to blow out the hapless Panthers last week. The Panthers have lost six straight games and are a complete mess right now. The Vikings were even outgained by 138 yards by the Panthers last week. They were outgained by 225 yards in a 13-21 loss to Chicago two weeks ago as well. The numbers show that this team simply isn’t that good.

Minnesota ranks a woeful 28th in the league in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 42.1 yards per game. New York actually ranks a respectable 18th in yardage differential, only getting outgained by 10.5 yards per game.  The Jets are only one of three teams (Redskins, Saints) who rank in the top 18 in yardage differential who currently have losing records.  They are obviously better than their record would indicate, just like the Saints and Redskins.

These numbers tell me that the Jets are actually the better team and should probably be favored on a neutral field. The Vikings should maybe be a slight favorite at home, but certainly not a favorite of 6 points. That 6 points could easily come into play here, and thus the Jets are the value play and the smart bet.

I like the fight I saw from the Jets last week as they simply manhandled the Dolphins at the line of scrimmage. They rushed for 277 yards on 49 carries and held the Dolphins to just 74 yards on 18 carries. They actually outgained the Dolphins by 35 yards in the game and probably should have won. They clearly have not quit fighting for head coach Rex Ryan.

After rushing for 277 yards on the Dolphins, they should be able to find a ton of success on the ground against the Vikings again this week. That’s because Minnesota has allowed 122 or more rushing yards in four consecutive games. It has given up an average of 148.3 rushing yards per game during this stretch, including 157.0 per game in its last three.

The Jets rank a solid 7th in the league in total defense, only giving up 322.0 yards per game. The Vikings are going to struggle to move the football and put up points without getting aided by fluke plays in special teams or on defense. That’s because they rank just 30th in the NFL in total offense, averaging a mere 300.8 yards per game. They are only averaging 253.7 yards per game in their last three contests, so Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t been the savior that many thought he’d be.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) – after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games are 34-13 (72.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on road underdogs or pick (NY JETS) – after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

The Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Vikings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win by more than 14 points.  New York is 8-1 in nine all-time meetings with Minnesota.  It has won 7 straight meetings.  Roll with the Jets Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Bulls +2.5

The Chicago Bulls are playing very well right now having one three of their last four games with all three victories coming on the road.  The only loss was a 129-132 (2 OT) setback at home to one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Dallas Mavericks. 

This solid play by the Bulls has coincided with a healthy return of Derrick Rose.  The former MVP has averaged 16.2 points and 5.1 assists per game this season and continues to get better with each game.  Pau Gasol (19.9 ppg, 11.4 rpg) has proven to be a huge addition this year.  The Bulls will be amped up to play the team with the best record in the NBA in front of a raucous home crowd Saturday night.

While the Warriors have the best record in the NBA, I certainly do not believe they are the best team.  They have simply benefited from playing a very easy schedule.  They come in way overvalued due to their 11-game winning streak, which comes to an end tonight.

A closer look at this streak shows that it has come against cake opponents.  The 11 wins have come against the Nets (8-10), Bobcats (5-15) twice, Lakers (5-15), Jazz (5-15), Thunder (6-13), Heat (9-10), Magic (8-14) twice, Pistons (3-15) and Pelicans (8-9).  All 11 wins have come against teams with losing records who have a combined 57-112 (33.7%) record in 2014.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 straight up in 10 meetings since 2009.  Chicago is 5-0 straight up in its last five home meetings with Golden State.  It has won those five games by an average of 18.6 points per game.  Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

15* FSU/Georgia Tech ACC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Florida State -4

The Florida State Seminoles (12-0) certainly created expectations from oddsmakers this season that they could not live up to after winning the BCS Championship last year. Despite going a perfect 12-0 straight up, they have gone a woeful 3-9 against the spread this season. The betting public has taken notice and has been quick to fade them because of it. This is one of the lowest spreads we’ve had an opportunity to back Florida State at as a result. That’s why I believe there is value in backing the Seminoles as only 4-point favorites in the ACC Championship.

Georgia Tech (10-2), meanwhile, comes into this game way overvalued due to going a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. That includes a win against Georgia in overtime last week in a game that I backed the Yellow Jackets as 12-point underdogs. That was a game where the Bulldogs were deflated after Missouri had won on Friday to punch its ticket into the SEC Championship, which prevented Georgia from playing in it. I simply believe the Yellow Jackets caught Georgia at the right time, and now they are getting too much respect from the books after that win.

All the Seminoles do is win. They extended their winning streak to 28 games with their 24-19 victory over Florida last week. I realize that they have six victories by 6 points or less this season, and that’s a big reason why I have faded them with regularity up to this point when they have been a big favorite. However, I have backed them a couple of their small spreads, and they have come through for me with a 42-31 win at Louisville as a 3.5-point favorite, and a 30-26 win at Miami as a 2-point favorite. Basically, all they have to do is win this game and they’ll cover considering this is only a 4-point spread and it likely won't come into play.

What I like about this play as well is that Florida State has played a gauntlet of a schedule down the stretch and is more battle-tested. It has faced six straight tough games against Notre Dame, Louisville, Virginia, Miami, Boston College and Florida. Georgia Tech’s last six games have come against UNC, Pitt, Virginia, NC State, Clemson and Georgia. It also faced Clemson without star QB Deshaun Watson, while FSU had to play Clemson with Watson and without Jameis Winston.

This is a very good matchup for the Seminoles because their strength defensively is stopping the run. They are giving up a respectable 146 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry on the season. Georgia Tech is a primary running team in the triple-option. Although it is an improved passing team this season, any threat it had of moving the football through the air ended against Georgia.

That’s because top receiver DeAndre Smelter suffered a knee injury in the loss to Georgia and is doubtful to play Saturday. This is a bigger loss than I believe the oddsmakers are factoring in. Smelter leads the team in receptions (35), receiving yards (715) and receiving touchdowns (7). To compare, second place in all three categories is Darren Waller (16 receptions, 255 yards, 4 TD). That just shows you how important Smelter is to the offense.

This Georgia Tech defense hasn’t exactly been dominant, either. It is giving up 24.1 points, 388.7 yards per game, and 6.1 yards per play. That is rather mediocre when you consider its opponents average 405 yards per game and 5.8 per play against all teams they have faced this year. The Yellow Jackets have simply won the time of possession this year, which has kept their suspect defense off the field for the majority of games.

That won’t happen against this high-powered FSU offense that averages 34.6 points and 430.3 yards per game on the year. Those numbers are made even more impressive by the fact that opposing defenses that they’ve faced only giving up 25.3 points and 357 yards per game. The Seminoles are also averaging 6.3 yards per play against teams that give up only 5.2 yards per play.  This is still an elite offense under Winston.

Florida State is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games when the line is +3 to -3. The Seminoles are 37-20 ATS in their last 57 games following two more consecutive ATS losses. Florida State is 6-0 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. The Seminoles are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games. Florida State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 December games.  Take Florida State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama +8

After going just 13-19 last year, the Alabama Crimson Tide are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014-15.  They are off to a solid start at 5-1 this season with their only loss coming on the road to nationally ranked Iowa State 74-84.

The reason I'm high on the Crimson Tide this year is because they return four starters from last season.  They are Shannon Hale (8.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg last year), Levi Randolph (9.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg), Rodney Cooper (7.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Retin Obasohan (9.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg).

Randolph (19.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg) and Cooper (12.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg) have taken their games to the next level this season.  Tulanetransfer Ricky Tarrant (14.0 ppg) had 20 games of 20-plus points before coming to Alabama and has picked up right where he left off.

Xavier is a team I have pegged to take a step back this year off a 21-13 season a year ago.  That's because it lost three starters in Semaj Christon (17.0 ppg, 4.2 apg Last year), Justin Martin (11.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and Isaiah Philmore (9.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg).  Two starters are back in Dee Davis (7.7 ppg, 4.7 apg) and Matt Sainbrook (10.6 ppg, 7.4 rpg), but the Musketeers obviously lose most of their scoring from last year.

Xavier has losses to UTEP (73-77) and Long Beach State (70-73) this year that are obviously concerning.  I believe it is overvalued because it is 4-0 at home this season with four blowout wins.  However, those four wins came against Northern Arizona, Long Beach State, Stephen F. Austin and Murray State, which is not impressive at all in my book.

These four returning starters for Alabama will be out for revenge after losing a tight one 74-77 at home to Xavier last season.  The Crimson Tide are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Alabama is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five Saturday games.  Xavier is 1-5 ATS in its last six Saturday games.  The Musketeers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Alabama -14.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) are the best team in college football, period. They have been the most impressive team based on the schedule that they have played and the numbers that they have put up this season. Their only loss came at Ole Miss by a final of 17-23 back when the Rebels were healthy and one of the best teams in the country. After beating a tough Auburn team 55-44 last week, this game against Missouri will feel like a cake walk.

Alabama has arguably its best offense in school history. It is putting up 36.7 points and 487.1 yards per game on the season. Blake Sims has had a tremendous year at quarterback, and bounced back nicely from a slow start against Auburn last week to lead them back from a double-digit second half deficit. Sims is completing 63.0 percent of his passes for 2,974 yards with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 275 yards and six scores.

While many consider the Crimson Tide to be down defensively this year, that simply has not been the case. They are giving up just 16.9 points and 312.0 yards per game against opposing offenses that average 29.5 points and 415 yards per game. They are holding their opponents to roughly 13 points and 103 yards per game less than their season averages. That’s the sign of an elite defense, and one that will shut down this suspect Missouri offense.

The Tigers, in my opinion, are the single-most overrated team in the entire country. There is no way they should be 10-2 right now when you consider they are only outgaining teams by an average of 34.4 yards per game.   To compare, Alabama outgains the opposition by 175.1 yards per game.  That's the sign of an elite team and one deserving of being in the SEC Championship.

The Tigers have simply been an opportunistic team that has taken advantage of opponent’s mistakes all year, but their luck runs out this week against the best team they have faced all season.  The second-best team they have played was easily Georgia, and they lost 34-0 to the Bulldogs at home on October 11th.

Missouri simply does not have the firepower offensively to do anything against this Alabama defense, which won’t allow it to keep up on the scoreboard. It ranks just 98th in the country in total offense, averaging 365.9 yards per game on the season. Maty Mauk is just an average quarterback who is completing 53.5 percent of his passes on the season. He will have one of the worst games of his career against this Alabama defense.

I look for this game to play out similarly to the 42-10 beat down the Crimson Tide put on the Tigers in their most recent meeting in 2012. They racked up 533 yards of offense while limiting the Tigers to just 129 total yards in the win. They outgained the Tigers by a whopping 404 total yards for the game. That contest was even played in Missouri, and this one will be in the Georgia Dome, where the Crimson Tide are used to being at season’s end.

The Crimson Tide are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games. Last year, Auburn beat Missouri 59-42 in the SEC Championship while outgaining the Tigers 677-534 for the game. This Alabama team is better than that Auburn team of a year ago, while this Missouri team isn’t as good as last year’s Tigers squad.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma State +21

Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight will not play Saturday after missing the past two games with a head injury. He was knocked out of a 14-48 home loss to Baylor on November 8th and hasn’t returned since. The Sooners haven’t needed him in their last two games against Big 12 bottom feeders Texas Tech (42-30 win) and Kansas (44-7 win), but they aren’t about to blow out Oklahoma State without Knight.

Backup Cody Thomas has been terrible in Knight’s place. He went 10-of-20 for 133 yards with one touchdown and three interceptions against Texas Tech, and 3-of-13 for 39 yards without a touchdown or an interception against Kansas. The Sooners were able to get away with being one-dimensional against the Red Raiders and Jayhawks, but that won’t be the case against the Cowboys.  Thomas is completing just 41% of his passes on the season.

Oklahoma State’s biggest weakness this season has been its quarterback play. That’s why head coach Mike Gundy decided to make a switch prior to the Baylor game a couple weeks ago. Mason Rudolph played very well in a hostile atmosphere in Waco, throwing for 281 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions in the 28-49 road loss as a 33-point underdog. Rudolph will get the start again Saturday, and I believe this offense will continue to perform better with him under center.  If they can stay within 21 points of Baylor on the road, which beat Oklahoma by 34 in Norman, then they can stay within 21 of the Sooners on the road.

This Oklahoma defense has shown plenty of holes all season, especially in conference play. It is giving up 28.2 points and 414.5 yards per game against Big 12 opponents this season. That’s not the sign of an elite team as this defense has been overrated all season. The Sooners were the preseason favorites to win the Big 12, and they have fallen flat on their faces. While the Sooners have nothing to play for at this point except perhaps a better bowl game, the Cowboys need one more win to become bowl eligible.

Oklahoma State would consider its season a success if it were to beat Oklahoma to get bowl eligible. The Cowboys have played the Sooners very tough in recent years, and I expect that to continue in 2014. They beat the Sooners 44-10 at home in 2011, and each of their last three losses to the Sooners have come by 9 points or less, and by a combined 18 points total. They want revenge after the Sooners spoiled their bid to win the Big 12 with a 33-24 upset last year.

Plays against home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OKLAHOMA) – with a good rushing D – allowing 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after allowing 1 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 23-3 (88.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.

Oklahoma State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two straight games. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Sooners are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* Arizona/Oregon Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Oregon -13.5

The Oregon Ducks (11-1) want revenge on the Wildcats after losing their last two meetings. I believe this line would be much bigger had the Ducks won both of them, but since it’s not I feel we are getting a discount on them as less than two-touchdown favorites. They were favored by more than 20 points in their last two meetings with the Wildcats, which is a good indication that we are getting them at a discount here.

Oregon has been on a mission over the last two months since that 24-31 loss to the Wildcats. It has gone a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall, winning all seven games by 12 points or more, including five of those by 24 or more. It just cannot be stopped offensively right now as it has scored at least 42 points in all seven of those contests. If it gets to 42 in this game, that will be enough to win by two touchdowns or more.

The Ducks are putting up 45.9 points and 539.5 yards per game to rank 4th in the country in total offense. Marcus Mariota came back for one more season to win a championship, and he's been the best leader this team could ask for. Mariota is completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,470 yards with a ridiculous 36-to-2 TD/INT ratio. He has also rushed for 636 yards and 11 scores while averaging a whopping 10.4 yards per pass attempt this season.

Arizona has a strong offense as well, but the way that its defense has played all year gives it little chance of keeping this game close against a motivated Oregon squad. The Wildcats are allowing an average of 434.7 yards per game to rank 96th in the country in total defense. That’s not the stop unit of a championship-caliber team. The Wildcats have to feel fortunate just to make the Pac-12 Championship.  That is a win for them in itself.

Oregon has put up huge numbers on Arizona in all their recent meetings. It has put up at least 446 yards of total offense in each of the last eight meetings with Arizona, including 500-plus four times. I just believe that the Wildcats can do nothing to slow down this Oregon offense, and the only way the Ducks don’t cover is if they beat themselves like they did in the last two meetings. They aren’t likely to beat themselves a third straight time, especially not with the way they are playing right now.

Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 vs. awful pass defenses that allow 275 or more passing yards per game. The Ducks are 9-1 ATS off two consecutive covers as a favorite over the last two seasons. Oregon is 12-1 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games on grass. Arizona is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 vs. a team with a winning record. Oregon is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games on grass.  Take Oregon Friday.