15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bears +14

Since Mitch Trubisky became the starting quarterback of the Chicago Bears, they have not lost a game by more than 8 points.  That's a span of six games dating back to a 20-17 home loss to Minnesota.  They upset both Baltimore on the road and Carolina at home.  Then they only lost by 8 at New Orleans, by 7 to Green Bay and by 3 to Detroit.

Trubisky isn't making a ton of big plays, but the key is that he isn't making the same costly mistakes that Mike Glennon was before him.  The Bears have only committed seven turnovers in six games since he took over, inlcuidng just three in their last four games.  That has allowed them to rely on their defense and running game, which are the two strengths of this team.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Philadelphia Eagles.  I was on the Eagles last week as my 25* Sunday Night Game of the Year.  I cashed that easy with a 37-9 win over the Cowboys.  But that was a great spot for the Eagles coming off their bye, and with all of the injuries to the Cowboys.  Now, after beating their biggest rivals, the Eagles will be flat this week against the Bears.

Philadelphia does have a good run defense, but it hasn't been tested much this season because teams have been playing from behind.  Opposing teams only average 19 rush attempts against Philadelphia.  Because I expect the Eagles to come out flat, the Bears won't have to abandon the running game.  They will be able to stick to their game plan, and that should be to run the ball 30-plus times to try and shorten the game and keep it close, which is precisely what they've been doing since Trubisky took over.  As a result, they've had a chance to win each of their last six games.

Will Philadelphia eventually win this game? Most likely.  But asking them to win by more than two touchdowns to beat us is simply asking too much this week.  There's no question that the Eagles are overvalued right now due to their 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS record.  Now this is the biggest favorites they have been all season, and it's only the second time they've been double-digit favorites.

John Fox is 9-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 5.65 or more yards per play as the coach of Chicago. The Bears are only losing to these good teams by an average of 2.6 points per game on average.  Fox takes pride in his defenses being able to contain the top offenses like the Eagles.  The Bears are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  I think the Eagles get more of a fight than they bargained for this week.  Take the Bears Sunday.

15* Clippers/Kings NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +4.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have no business being favored on the road against the Sacramento Kings tonight.  The Clippers are 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Their only win came against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Atlanta Hawks.  They are decimated by injuries as they are without two starters in Patrick Beverly and Danilo Gallinari.

The Kings don't get the respect they deserve from oddsmakers when playing at home as they still have one of the most udnerrated home-court advantages in the NBA.  That has shown of late.  The Kings are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, pulling off four upsets against Oklahoma City (94-86) as 10.5-point dogs, Philadelphia (109-108) as 6.5-point dogs), Portland (86-82) as 7-point dogs and the LA Lakers (113-102) as 1-point dogs.

The Kings are fully healthy right now and playing great basketball.  The same cannot be said for the Clippers.  The wrong team is favored in this one folks as I believe Sacramento wins outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.  Take the Kings Saturday.

15* Washington State/Washington Apple Cup No-Brainer on Washington State +10.5

The roles are reversed this year for Washington and Washington State.  Last year, a spot in the four-team playoff was on the line for Washington.  They routed Washington State 45-17 thanks to four turnovers from the Cougars.  That game meant a lot for the Huskies.

Now, a spot in the Pac-12 Championship is on the line for Washington State.  A victory over the Huskies will allow the Cougars to win the Pac-12 North for the first time.  If Washington prevails, then Stanford will be the North Division's representative against South winner USC.  So Washington is only trying to play the role of spoiler having already been eliminated from North contention due to a head-to-head loss to Stanford.  The Huskies won't be nearly as motivated in the spoiler role after playing in the four-team playoff last year with a lot more at stake in the Apple Cup.

This is also a great spot for the Cougars because they will be coming off a bye, while the Huskies are coming off a physical 33-30 home win over Utah last week that probably took a lot out of them.  They easily should have lost that game, and that effort showed that they weren't all that motivated after losing to Stanford the previous week to essentially eliminate them from Pac-12 and national title contention.

Senior Luke Falk would love nothing more than to beat Washington in his final regular season game.  He has the Pac-12 records for career passing yardage (14,117) and passing touchdowns (118).  The Cougars have an elite offense, but what is underrated about this team is a defense that ranks 11th nationally by giving up just 303.8 yards per game.  The Cougars are 2nd in the country in tackles for losses (94).

Washington State is 16-4 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons.  The Cougars are 12-2 ATS versus good offensive teams averaging 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three years.  Washington State is 9-0 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games over the last three seasons.

Plays on road underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (WASHINGTON ST) - after covering the spread in five or six out of their last seven games, with a winning record on the season are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Falk will be searching for his first career victory over the Huskies in his career, and I think he likely gets it Saturday given the great spot with the Cougars off a bye and the more motivated team.  Roll with Washington State Saturday.

15* Alabama/Minnesota Top 25 No-Brainer on Minnesota -3.5

Richard Pitino has his best team yet in his sixth season at Minnesota.  The Gophers returned all five starters from a young squad last year, and their chemistry has been sensational to start the season.

Indeed, the Gophers are 6-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season.  They have won all six games by 12 points or more, including an impressive 86-74 road win at Providence as 2.5-point dogs, and a 69-51 win over UMass as 14.5-point favorites to kick off this tournament yesterday.

Alabama has some talent with four returning starters.  But they are without one of those starters in Braxton Key (12.0 ppg, 5.7 rpg) due to a knee injury.  Key led the team in scoring and minutes played last season.

The Crimson Tide are also unbeaten at 5-0, but their undefeated start has been far less impressive than that of Minnesota.  They only beat Texas-Arlington 77-76 as 11-point home favorites.

Alabama is 13-27 ATS in its last 40 off five or more consecutive wins.  Minnesota is 17-8 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons.  The Gophers are 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better over the past three seasons.  The Gophers are 6-0 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77-plus points per game over the last three years.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke +12

Duke opened 4-0 before losing six straight games.  But the Blue Devils showed a lot of heart last week in beating Georgia Tech 43-20.  It was their most impressive performance of the season.  They outgained a very good Yellow Jackets team by 141 yards, so the final score wasn't fluky at all.

Now the Blue Devils need just one more win to get bowl eligible, and they'd love to do it against their rivals Saturday.  I think Duke will be the more motivated team here because of this fact.  Wake Forest is already bowl eligible at 7-4 and has less to play for.

Plus, Wake Forest is coming off a huge 30-24 win over NC State at home.  That makes this a bit of a letdown spot for them as it is.  And that was a huge misleading final as the Demon Deacons were actually outgained by 168 yards by the Wolfpack.  They have actually been outgained in five of their last eight games, and I just don't think they are as good as their 7-4 record would indicate.  They should not be double-digit favorites against Duke.

I like this matchup for the Blue Devils as well.  They got their ground game going against Georgia Tech last week, rushing for a whopping 319 yards.  Wake Forest ranks 104th in the country against the run, giving up 200 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry.  

This Wake Forest defense is giving up 444 yards per game on the season, while Duke is giving up just 20.5 points and 335 yards per game against teams that average 26 points and 370 yards per game, holding them to 5.5 points and 35 yards per game less than their season averages.  It's clear that the Blue Devils have by far the superior defense in this matchup.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this head-to-head series.  In fact, the road team has actually won five of the last six meetings.  The Blue Devils are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 visits to Wake Forest, including 6-1 ATS in their last seven road meetings.  Wake Forest is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points.  Give me the Blue Devils as double-digit underdogs here in a game they could easily win outright.  Take Duke Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue -2.5

The Purdue Boilermakers are currently undervalued after losing four of their last six.  All four losses have come by 10 points or less to some quality teams, including road losses at Wisconsin (9-17) and Northwestern (13-23).  They also had a 12-14 loss at Rutgers in which they outgained the Scarlet Knights by 257 yards.  They also lost 24-25 at home to Nebraska after giving up a late score in the final seconds.

The Boilermakers were sitting at 4-6 last week, and Jeff Brohm called out his team, saying that anyone who didn't want to buy in could turn in their pads.  And boy did his team respond.  Purdue went on the road and beat Iowa 24-15 as 6-point underdogs.  I was on them last week and was very impressed with that effort as they outgained the Hawkeyes by 36 yards and limited them to just 258 total yards.

Purdue is better than its 5-6 record would indicate.  The Boilermakers have outgained seven of their 11 opponents this season with the only exceptions being Louisville, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska, which was coming off its bye and trying to save its season.  The Boilermakers are outgaining teams by 26 yards per game on the season.

Brohm has this offense playing at a high level, but it's the work the Boilermakers have done on defense that has led to their turnaround this season.  They are only giving up 18.9 points per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that average 29 points per game and 5.8 per play.  They are holding opponents to 10.1 points per game and 0.6 yards per play below their season averages, which is the sign of an elite defense.

The Indiana Hoosiers are also 5-6, but they are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers off their back-to-back wins over Illinois and Rutgers.  The Hoosiers don't have any quality wins outside of their road win at Virginia.  The other four wins came at home over Georgia Southern, Charleston Southern and Rutgers, and also that road win at Illinois.  They haven't beaten a team of Purdue's caliber yet.  Indiana has benefited from playing an easier schedule than Purdue.

Plays on home favorites (PURDUE) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR), after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games are 22-3 (88%) ATS since 1992.

Indiana is 7-21 ATS in its last 28 off a home win by 17 points or more.  The Hoosiers are 7-35 ATS in thier last 42 after outgaining their previous opponents by 125 or more yards.  Indiana is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 off a cover as a double-digit favorite.  The Hoosiers are 1-7 ATS in Big Ten games this season.  The home team has won four of the last five meetings.  The Boilermakers want to avenge four straight losses to Indiana, including their 24-26 loss as 21.5-point road dogs last year.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a massive letdown spot here tonight.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season Wednesday, a 108-91 domination of the Golden State Warriors in a game that they were determined to prove they could contend in the West.  Mission accomplished.  Now they won't have nearly the same fight against the Detroit Pistons tonight.

Meanwhile, the Pistons will have the fight as they have lost three of their last four games coming in.  They have had three days off in between games to get ready for the Thunder having last played on November 20th.  That will be a huge advantage for them coming into this game.

I really like this Pistons team and feel they are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  That has proven to be the case as they are 11-6 SU & 11-5-1 ATS, yet nobody is talking about them.  They are still trying to earn their respect, and a win over the Thunder today would go a long ways.  This team has impressive road wins over Golden State and Minnesota already this season.  Detroit is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine vs. Western Conference opponents.

Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after beating the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Pistons Friday.

15* VA Tech/Virginia ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Virginia +7.5

The Virginia Cavaliers will be highly motivated to end a 13-game losing streak to Virginia Tech in this head-to-head rivalry.  This is one of the best opportunities they have had to end the streak as I believe these two teams are on a similar level talent-wise.

Bronco Mendenhall has done a great job in Year 2 getting the Cavaliers to a bowl at 6-5.  They want more, and they clearly showed that last week when they led No. 2 Miami 28-14 in the second half before giving up 30 straight points to lose 44-28.  They went toe-to-toe with the Hurricanes, actually outgaining them 439 to 358 for the game.  They arguably should have won, and to put up 439 yards on that defense is quite a feat.

Virginia Tech has not looked good at all down the stretch, and it cannot be favored on the road by more than a touchdown here with the way it is playing right now.  The Hokies lost 10-28 at Miami, 22-28 at Georgia Tech, and needed a goal line stand to beat Putt 20-14 last week as 14-point favorites.  That is their last three games, which doesn't bode well for them covering 7.5 against highly motivated Virginia this week.

Pittsburgh threw for 311 yards against this Virginia Tech defense last week.  Kurt Benkert is having a very good year, and he lit up Miami's defense for 384 passing yards last week.  It's clear he will be able to find some success through the air against this overrated Virginia Tech defense that has allowed 399 yards per game in their last three contests.

This Virginia Tech offense is really struggling right now.  The Hokies have been held to less than 400 yards in five straight games against UNC, Duke, Miami, GA Tech and Pitt, not exactly the greatest slate of defenses.  They are averaging just 17.3 points, 310.7 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play in their last three.  For whatever reason, they continue try running the football despite the fact that they're not a good running team.  They average 44 rush attempts per game at 3.8 per carry on the season.

Despite losing 13 straight to the Hokies, the Cavaliers have actually come very close to beating them recently.  They were blown out at Virginia Tech last year, but the previous four meetings were decided by a total of 20 points.  Three were decided by 4 points or fewer.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Take Virginia Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +8

The Boston Celtics are in a very tough spot here mentally.  They put a lot into their 16-game winning streak.  But that streak came to an end at Miami on Wednesday.  Now they will suffer a 'hangover' effect from that defeat, and they won't bring the kind of intensity it takes to put Orlando away by 8-plus points tonight.

The Magic will be highly motivated for a victory after losing six straight coming in.  Most of those losses were close, and most came against some of the top teams in the NBA like Golden State, Denver, Portland, and Minnesota, all on the road.  They should be hungry to end this skid against the Boston Celtics tonight.

The Magic will also be out for revenge from an 88-104 home loss to the Celtics in their first and only meeting on November 5th less than three weeks ago.  Motivation is huge in the NBA, and there's no question in my mind that the Magic will want this game more than the Celtics do tonight, which is half the battle, matchups aside.

Frank Vogel is 29-12 ATS in November road games in all games he has coached.  The Magic are 5-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Take the Magic Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -6

Season after season, the Virginia Cavaliers are underrated.  That has been the case thus far in 2017 as well despite the fact that they returned three starters and a ton of talent.  Tony Bennett does a tremendous job with this team as they are consistently a Top 10 defensive team in the land.

Virginia has opened 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS through its first five games.  It went on the road and beat VCU 76-67 as 6.5-point favorites, thumped Monmouth 73-53 as 18.5-point home favorites and crushed Vanderbilt 68-42 as 6-point favorites in its last three games.  I really like the way this team is playing right now, giving up just 51.8 points per game on 34.5% shooting on the season.

Rhode Island is getting too much respect from the books off its 75-74 upset win over Seton Hall yesterday.  The Rams are still without their best player in E.C. Matthews due to injury.  They went 9-of-17 from 3-point range against Seton Hall, which was the difference.  Don't expect them to shoot nearly as well against Bennett's defense today.

The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  Virginia is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. ACC opponents.  Bet Virginia Friday.

15* Texas/Duke CBB Friday No-Brainer on Duke -6.5

The Duke Blue Devils are the best team in college basketball, and it's not really even close.  They have opened 6-0 with an 88-81 win over a very good Michigan State team along the way.  I think the fact that they didn't cover as 24.5-point favorites in a 99-81 win over an underrated Portland State team yesterday is keeping this line lower than it should be.

Conversely, Texas is getting too much respect from the books off a 61-48 win as 3-point favorites over Butler yesterday.  But Butler is way down this season and lost its head coach to Ohio State, along with several key players from last year's team.  Texas really doesn't have a good win yet as the other three victories all came at home against Northwestern State, New Hampshire and Lipscomb.  This will be a big step up in class for them.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DUKE) - in a game involving two very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. Roll with Duke Friday.

15* CFB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -3.5

Mike Riley's tenure at Nebraska is just about to be over.  He has gone just 19-18 in his three seasons, and the Huskers are guaranteed to have a rare losing season at 4-7 on the year.  They have lost three straight and five of their last seven, and their defense has continually been torched.

The Huskers have given up a whopping 47.0 points, 532.7 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play in their last three games.  They are getting worse, not better.  While their 44-56 loss at Penn State last week looks close, they actually trailed that game 56-24 with just over six minutes to play before remarkably scoring three touchdowns in the final six minutes.  I think that 'close' result is giving Nebraska more line respect than they deserve this week.

The Huskers have been outgained in five of their last six games all by 85 yards or more, and four times by 138 yards or more.  Their only win during this stretch came 25-24 at Purdue after their scored in the closing seconds to snatch victory form the jaws of defeat.  But that was a great spot for Nebraska as they were coming off their bye week, while the Boilermakers were coming off a tough 9-17 loss to Wisconsin.

I think Iowa is undervalued right now after losing back-to-back games to Wisconsin and Purdue.  It's clear to me that Iowa had a letdown in those two games after upsetting Ohio State 55-24 at home.  Now I fully expect them to be over that letdown and pissed off, looking to take out their frustration on their biggest rivals in Nebraska.  They'll have no problem kicking them while they're down here.

Iowa has given it to Nebraska the past two years, winning 28-20 in Lincoln as 2.5-point favorites in 2015, and 40-10 at home last year while outgaining the Huskers 408 to 217 for the game.  The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  I think we see Iowa's offense get back to playing like they did against Ohio State against this soft Nebraska defense.  And this Iowa defense is still one of the better units in the country, holding opponents to 20.5 points, 363 yards per game and 5.1 per play on the season.    They are limiting foes to 9.1 points, 31 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages this year.

Nebraska is 0-6 ATS in home games this season.  They lost by 7 to Northwestern as 2-point dogs, by 42 to Ohio State as 24-point dogs, by 21 to Wisconsin as 12.5-point dogs and by 4 to Northern Illinois as 10.5-point favorites.  They needed a comeback to beat lowly Rutgers 27-17 as 11-point favorites, and they nearly lost to Arkansas State 43-36 as 14.5-point favorites.

Iowa is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Riley is 1-8 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive ATS wins as the coach of Nebraska.  The Huskers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Kirk Ferentz is 17-5 ATS after gaining 100 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games as the coach of Iowa.  Plays against home underdogs (NEBRASKA) - after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game against opponent after gaining 100 or less rushing yards in two straight games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Iowa Friday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo +4

The Buffalo Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They are just 5-6 on the year, but all six of their losses have come by 10 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer.  They have simply had bad luck in close games.

But the Bulls haven't let it affect them here down the stretch.  They have reeled off two straight victories to get to five wins and within one win of getting bowl eligible.  Now, on Senior Day Friday, the Bulls will be highly motivated for a win to get to a bowl game, and to win it for their seniors.  I love the spot for Buffalo.

Conversely, the spot couldn't be any worse for Ohio.  The Bobcats were upset 34-37 at Akron last week in a game that decided the MAC East champion.  Of course, Akron had to win this week to clinch the East, which is exactly what they did on Tuesday with a 24-14 victory over Kent State.  

Now Akron will be going to the MAC Championship Game in Detroit to face Toledo, while Ohio has nothing to play for at 8-3 and already bowl eligible.  I expect a 'hangover' effect from that loss with Ohio this week.  They won't be able to match Buffalo's intensity in this one.

Buffalo is a completely different team with a healthy Tyree Jackson at quarterback.  He missed four games in a row due to injury, and it's no surprise the Bulls went 1-3 in those games, though they were at least competitive.  He returned against Akron and they should have won that game, losing 20-21 despite 303 passing yards from Jackson.  They outgained the Zips by 88 yards in that contest.  

Jackson really looked like himself two weeks ago, throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Bulls to a 38-28 win over Bowling Green.  Then last week the Bulls blew out Ball State 40-24 on the road behind 350 passing yards and four touchdowns from Jackson.  They outgained Ball State by 228 yards in that contest.  It's clear this team is much better with Jackson under center.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 32-8 (80%) ATS since 1992.

Ohio is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 when playing against a marginal losing team that wins 40% to 49% of their games.  Buffalo is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams that allow 7.5 or fewer yards per return over the past two seasons.  The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  These five trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the Bulls.  Bet Buffalo Friday.

15* Giants/Redskins Thanksgiving Night DESSERT on New York +7.5

The Washington Redskins can't be 7.5-point favorites against the division rival New York Giants.  They have never been good in the favorite role.  They have only been favored in one of their 10 games this season, and they nearly lost outright as 11-point favorites over the 49ers in a 26-24 home victory.  So they'll be favored for just the second time all season here.

The laundry list of injuries for the Redskins is too long to name.  They have cluster injuries on the offensive line, and all three of their running backs are hurt.  Rob Kelley was already out for the season, and then last week Chris Thompson (39 receptions, 510 yards, 294 rushing yards, 6 total TD) suffered a fractured fibula.  Samaje Perine had a big game, but he also suffered a finger injury that has him questionable this week.  They also lost their big free agent acquisition Terrelle Pryor to a season-ending injury.  Star TE Jordan Reid has missed the past three games with a hamstring issue.

Kirk Cousins had a big game against the Saints last week, but a lot of that had to do with cluster injuries for the Saints on defense.  They Saints were already without safety Kenny Vaccaro, but then leading tackler A.J. Klein, top pass rusher Alex Okafor, and rookie first-round pick CB Marshon Lattimore all left with injuries throughout the game.

Cousins took advantage, but their defense couldn't hold the lead as the Saints scored touchdowns on their final two possessions or regulation.  This defense has cluster injuries among the front seven, and it's a defense that has been torched in recent weeks.  The Redskins have allowed 33 or more points in four of their last five games.  They have given up an average of 459.3 yards per game in their last three.

The Giants showed some heart last week in upsetting the Chiefs 12-9 as 10-point home underdogs.  It was a great performance as the Chiefs were in an ideal spot coming off their bye week.  Now this team can relax and start playing more freely after proving their naysayers wrong.  And they will be looking forward to trying to wreck Washington's season for a second consecutive year.

Offensively, the Giants have gotten their ground game going to try and take some pressure off of Eli Manning.  They have done so successfully by rushing for at least 111 yards in five of their last six games overall.  Their defense still has the talent to be a very good unit moving forward after being one of the best units in the NFL last year.  They showed their teeth in limiting the Chiefs to just three field goals and holding them out of the end zone last week.

Last season, in Week 17, the Redskins just needed a win to get in the playoffs.  The Giants had nothing to play for as they were already in the playoffs.  The Giants went into Washington and won 19-10 as 9.5-point underdogs.  That win just continued the dominance of the Giants in this head-to-head series with the Redskins, which is another reason Washington cannot be favored by more than a touchdown here.

Indeed, the Giants are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Redskins.  The Redskins have won three times in the last 10 meetings, but all three wins came by 6 points or less.  That makes for a 10-0 system backing the Giants here.  You have to go all the way back to 2011 to find the last time the Redskins beat the Giants by more than a touchdown.  

The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  The underdog is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings.  Washington is 40-69 ATS in its last 109 games as a home favorite.  New York is 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 7 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Take the Giants Thursday.

15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Ole Miss +15

The Ole Miss Rebels sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from a bowl game.  They would love nothing more than to upset their biggest rivals in Mississippi State here in the Egg Bowl Thursday to clinch that bowl berth.  This team continues to fight despite the tough circumstances they had coming into the season with the offseason distractions.

The Rebels haven't lost any of their last six games by more than 16 points.  They have gone 3-3 during this stretch with wins over Vanderbilt (57-35), Kentucky (37-34) and LA Lafayette (50-22).  Their three losses have come to Texas A&M (24-31), Arkansas (37-38) and LSU (24-40), so they have basically been competitive in every game.  Their only two losses by more than that 16-point margin both came on the road to Alabama and Auburn, the two best teams in the SEC.

There's no question Mississippi State is a very good team at 8-3 this season, but the Bulldogs are getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.  This is a team that only beat UMass 34-23 three weeks ago as 31.5-point favorites, and they were in a battle last week with Arkansas as 13.5-point favorites in a 28-21 victory.

I love big underdogs in these rivalry games, and that has particularly been the case in this particular series.  The underdog has won four of the last five meetings outright, including Mississippi State's 55-20 win at Ole Miss last year as 10-point dogs.  You can bet the Rebels want to return the favor here and clinch their bowl by beating their biggest rivals.

Ole Miss boasts and offense that will keep it in this game for four quarters.  The Rebels are averaging 38.2 points per game in their last six contests.  Mississippi State is 3-11 ATS off a road game over the past three seasons.  I anticipate this game being closer than the oddsmakers expect.  Roll with Ole Miss Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Seton Hall -4

The Seton Hall Pirates are loaded this season.  They returned four starters from a team that went 21-12 last season.  They have four double-digit scorers back in Khadeen Carrington (17.1 ppg), Desi Rodriquez (15.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg), Angel Delgado (15.2 ppg, 13.1 rpg) and Myles owell (10.7 ppg).  They led the Big East in rebounding margin and were 13th nationally.

The Pirates have opened 4-0 this season with four double-digit victories.  They are taking care of business and should continue doing so here against Rhode Island, which is 2-1 with an 81-88 road loss to Nevada already.

The Rams were 25-10 last year and made the NCAA Tournament, but they lost two key pieces from that team in Hassan Martin (13.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Kuran Iverson (9.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg).  They were supposed to have three starters back, including leading scorer E.C. Matthews (14.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg), but Matthews is currently sidelined with a knee injury.  That leaves the Rams short-handed and far less talented than Seton Hall.

Plays on a favorite (SETON HALL) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 49-22 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Pirates are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.  Bet Seton Hall Thursday.

15* Arkansas/Oklahoma CBB Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma -1.5

The Oklahoma Sooners are flying under the radar early in the season.  That's because they went 11-20 last season in what was clearly a rebuilding year.  But now with four starters back and one of the best head coaches in the country in Lon Kruger, the Sooners are prime bounce-back candidates in 2017.

The Sooners have opened 2-0 and are hitting on all cylinders offensively, scoring 108 points in each of those two wins.  Now they have had over a week to prepare for Arkansas and this PK 80 Invitational in Oregon having last played on November 15th.  They'll be ready to go.

Conversely, Arkansas is going to take a big step back after a 26-10 season last year.  The Razorbacks lose their two best players in Dusty Hannahs (14.4 ppg) and Moses Kingsley (12.4 ppg, 7.7 rpg).  They do return two key players in Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon, but they aren't nearly as talented as last year.  They are without one returning starter in Dustin Thomas due to a suspension.  They are also without key bench player Arlando Cook due to suspension, leaving them lacking depth.

Plays on a favorite (OKLAHOMA) - off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more, with four starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 49-22 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Mike Anderson is 14-27 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more as the coach of Arkansas.  The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Oklahoma is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Razorbacks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  Arkansas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. Big 12 opponents.  Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 vs. SEC foes.  Take Oklahoma Thursday.

20* Chargers/Cowboys Thanksgiving Day FEAST on Los Angeles PK

The Dallas Cowboys have been a mess since losing arguably the three best players on the roster in Ezekiel Elliott, Tyron Smith and Sean Lee.  Both Elliott and Lee are expected to be out against the Chargers this week once again, while Smith is a game-time decision.

The offense has really struggled without Elliott and Smith in a 7-27 loss to the Falcons and a 9-36 loss to the Eagles.  They have managed just 8.0 points per game and 229 yards per game in those two contests while committing six turnovers.  The play-action just doesn't work now because opposing defense don't have to respect Elliott and the running game like they normally do.  It's proving that Dak Prescott is no more than an average quarterback.  Not having Smith has allowed the Falcons and Eagles to sack Prescott a combined 12 times.

The Cowboys have been much better defensively when Lee is on the field than when he isn't.  They have given up 32 points per game in the these past two games without him.  Coming into the Philadelphia games, Dallas was giving up a QB rating of 85 to opponents with Lee on the field, and a 108 rating with him off the field.  They were giving up 3.5 yards per carry with him on the field, and 5.5 yards per carry with him off the field.  He is as important to the Cowboys as Luke Kuechly is to the Panthers.  And now fellow LB Anthony Hitchens, who was taking his place, suffered a groin injury against the Eagles last week and was forced to leave the game.  He is questionable to play this week.

The Chargers are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate.  They have turned the corner, going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their two losses both came on the road to the Patriots and Jaguars in game efforts by a combined 11 points, including an OT loss to Jacksonville in a game they should have won.  The four wins have come by an average of 14.3 points per game.

The Chargers have an underrated defense that is giving up just 19.3 points per game this year.  They will be able to wreak havoc in the Cowboys' backfield all game thanks to the duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram harassing Dak Prescott for four quarters.  And Philip Rivers and the offense really got going last week, racking up 54 points and 429 yards against the Bills.  They should be able to move the ball and score points at will against this Lee-less Cowboys defense.

The road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in road games after having lost two of their last three games over the past three seasons.  Dallas is 0-7 ATS vs. poor kickoff teams who allow 24 or more yards per return in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight Thursday games.  Bet the Chargers Thursday.

15* Lakers/Kings ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento +1

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a tough spot here.  They used a huge second half to come back and beat the Bulls at home last night 103-94.  They outscored the Bulls 61-38 after intermission to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Now they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and won't have much left in the tank for the Kings tonight.

I think the wrong team is favored here given the situation.  The Kings have been an underrated home team throughout the years, especially here over the past few weeks.  They are 3-1 in their last four home games, pulling the outright upsets over the Thunder (94-86) as 10.5-point dogs, the 76ers (109-108) as 6.5-point dogs and the Blazers (86-82) as 7-point dogs.

The Lakers are 7-21 ATS off two consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS in road games versus poor offensive teams who score 98 or fewer points per game over the last three seasons.  The Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The Lakers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Sacramento is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet the Kings Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Thunder ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 221

Two of the better defensive teams in the NBA square off tonight when the Warriors and Kevin Durant return to Oklahoma City to take on the new-look Thunder.  This game will be played with a high intensity level on the defensive end, which will make points harder to come by.

The Thunder rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.2 points per 100 possessions.  The Warriors are right behind them at 6th, giving up 101.4 points per 100 possessions.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 34-12 (73.9%) over the last five seasons.

The UNDER is 11-5 in Thunder last 16 home games.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Thunder last five vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -5

Steve Wojciechowski is doing a fine job at Marquette in turning the Golden Eagles into a competitive Big East team year in and year out.  They went 19-13 last season and have one of the best shooting backcourts in the country from the 3-point line, led by Markus Howard and Andrew Rowsey.

The Golden Eagles are just 2-2 this season, but they have played a brutal schedule.  Their two losses came to two of the top teams in the country in Purdue and Wichita State, and they were competitive in both games.  Now playing LSU will be a cakewalk compared to what they have played thus far.

LSU may be one of the worst teams in the SEC this season.  They opened 3-0 against a soft schedule, but then reality set in with a 53-92 loss to Notre Dame last night.  I think they get their doors blown off again as this is a clear rebuilding year for Will Wade and company.  Plus, the Tigers lost one of their best players in Brandon Sampson (10.0 ppg) to injury against Notre Dame and he's doubtful to play tonight.

LSU is 2-11 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the past two seasons.  Marquette is 34-14 ATS in its last 48 November road games.  The Tigers are 16-30 ATS in their last 46 following a blowout loss by 20 points or more.  The Golden Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. SEC opponents.  Take Marquette Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Heat UNDER 197.5

The biggest reason the Boston Celtics have won 16 straight games is because they have been the best defensive team in the NBA, and by a wide margin.  The Celtics rank 1st in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.8 points per 100 possessions.

Now they are up against a Miami Heat team that is also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA when Hassan Whiteside is on the floor.  Whiteside missed a handful of games early in the season, which has the Heat's defensive numbers skewed a bit.  They rank 14th in defensive efficiency but are better than that with Whiteside.

The Heat are 26th in offensive efficiency, while the Celtics are 20th.  Both teams prefer to play at slower tempos as the Heat are 19th in pace and the Celtics 20th.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Heat last seven after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Heat last 10 games overall. 

These teams just played on October 28th in their first meeting this season.  The Celtics won that game 96-90 for 186 combined points.  I think we see a similar final here as this game stays well UNDER the 197.5-point total.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Hornets -2.5

The Charlotte Hornets are now finally healthy for the first time all season.  It is starting to pay off as they have delivered back-to-back blowout home victories over the Clippers (102-87) and the Timberwolves (118-102).  Now I expect them to get the win and cover at home tonight against the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here and they haven't had two days off in a row for the entire month of December.  I think this is a tired team right now and they have lost two of their last three coming in.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between the Hornets and Wizards.  Indeed, the home team is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings.  The Hornets basically just have to win the game to cover this 2.5-point spread tonight.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Fresno State -5.5

The Fresno State Bulldogs are one of the better teams in the Mountain West Conference this season.  They returned three starters in Jaron Hopkins (13.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.2 spg last year), Jahmel Taylor (10.5 ppg, 45% 3-pointers) and Bryson Williams (7.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg), along with top reserve Deshon Taylor (12.5 ppg).   They added Pacific graduate transfer (13.4 ppg) and will have a potent starting five.

The Bulldogs have opened 2-1, blowing out their first two opponents at home before facing a tough test against SEC foe Arkansas on the road.  They lost that game 75-83, but covered as 13-point underdogs in an impressive showing.  The four returnees are having big seasons already in D. Taylor (17.7 ppg), Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.0 rpg), J. Taylor (14.3 ppg) and Hopkins (13.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 4.0 apg).  Bowles (7.3 ppg) is still finding his way with his new team.

Evansville was picked to finish last or near the bottom of the Missouri Valley coming into the season.  It's easy to see why considering they lost three starters, including leading scorer Jaylon Brown (20.9 ppg).  This is a team that went 16-17 last year, including 6-12 in MVC play.  With only two starters back, they will struggle again.

However, I think the Purple Aces are getting a ton of respect from oddsmakers and the betting public due to their 4-0 start.  But the four wins all came at home against Arkansas State, NC Central, SE Missouri State and Binghamton.  Those are four awful opponents, and they didn't beat any of them by more than 16 points.  This is a huge step up in class here for the Purple Aces having to face Fresno State.

Fresno State is 8-0 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in non-conference road games over the past two seasons.  Fresno State is 14-3 ATS off an ATS win over the past two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  Fresno State is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Fresno State Tuesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Eastern Michigan -12.5

The Eastern Michigan Eagles could have easily packed it in after their 3-7 start.  They were the most hard-luck team in the country in close games through the first 10 games.  Their first six losses all came by 7 points or less, and the only reason they lost to Central Michigan was due to five turnovers in their last loss, a 12-point defeat.

But last week the Eagles showed a lot of heart.  They went on the road and beat Miami Ohio 27-24 as underdogs.  That was a Miami team that needed a win to make a bowl game, and the Eagles looked like they were the team that wanted it more.  They were in control the entire game before Miami scored a TD in the final two minutes and had a failed onside attempt.

This is a veteran EMU team that returned 16 starters and is loaded with seniors.  That is important because this is Senior Night for them and their final game of the season.  I think these seniors, led by QB Brogan Roback, will be motivated to end their playing careers with a victory.  They will put it on Bowling Green at home Tuesday night.

Roback and company should score at will against the worst defense in the MAC.  Bowling Green gives up 38.4 points per game, 517 yards per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  They are giving up 39.9 points, 499 yards per game and 6.7 per play in conference action alone.  They just gave up 66 points to Toledo last week.

Bowling Green is 0-8 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past two seasons.  The Eagles are 13-1 ATS off one or more consecutive unders over the past two seasons.  Eastern Michigan is 6-0 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.9 or more yards per play over the past two seasons.  These three trends combine for a 27-1 system backing the Eagles.  Take Eastern Michigan Tuesday.

20* Falcons/Seahawks ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Atlanta +3

The fight the Atlanta Falcons showed last week against the Cowboys was impressive.  It was the type of season-saving win that I think bodes well for this team moving forward.  They dominated the Cowboys 27-7, limiting them to just 233 total yards and sacking Dak Prescott eight times.  Veteran Adrian Claiborne played like a man possessed with his six sacks.

And while the Falcons are just 5-4 this season, they have been nearly as good as they were last year from a statistical standpoint.  The Falcons rank 4th in the NFL in offensive yards per play (6.1) and 7th in defensive yards per play (5.0).  They are outgaining teams by 1.1 yards per play, which is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is.  It is also the best yards per play differential in the NFL, and it's worth noting the Eagles have played a brutal schedule up to this point.

While the Falcons are basically at full strength outside of Devonta Freeman (questionable), the Seattle Seahawks have all kinds of injury issues right now.  Richard Sherman suffered a torn Achilles against the Cardinals last week and has been lost for the season.  Safety Earl Thomas has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury.  CB Shaquille Griffin (shoulder) and S Kam Chancellor (undisclosed) both left the Arizona game and are questionable.  So their secondary is extremely vulnerable, and that's bad news for the Seahawks with what Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and company are capable of doing through the air.

There are offensive line injuries as well with Luke Joeckel still out, and now tackle Duane Brown questionable with an ankle injury suffered against the Cardinals.  Brown was traded to Seattle from the Houston Texans, so they cannot afford to lose him.  Not to mention, DE Frank Clark and DE Marcus Smith are both questionable, while DE Cliff Avril is out for the season, so they are short-handed up front on defense.

The Seahawks are just getting respect because they are 5-1 in their last six games overall.  But each win has an asterisk attached to it.  They actually trailed in the second half at home against the Colts before pulling away late.  They were fortunate to beat the Rams 16-10 despite getting outgained by 134 yards.  Their 24-7 win over the Giants is about par for the course for the Giants right now.  They need a score in the final seconds to beat the Texans 41-38 at home.  They lost 14-17 to the Redskins at home as 8-point favorites.  And they were outgained by the Cardinals last week in their 22-16 win over backup QB Drew Stanton and company.

Atlanta lit up Seattle for 28 first downs and 422 total yards in their 36-20 home win last year.  That win avenged their 24-26 loss at Seattle as 6.5-point dogs earlier in the season as the Seahawks kicked a game-winning field goal in the final minutes, and a pass interference wasn't called on Richard Sherman against Julio Jones that should have been in the closing seconds.  Matt Ryan threw for 323 yards in the playoff game and 310 in the regular season game, so he clearly isn't afraid of this Seattle defense.  The Falcons outgained the Seahawks 784 to 642 in those two meetings combined.

Plays against home favorites (SEATTLE) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in two straight games are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Falcons are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. NFC opponents.  Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four Monday games.  The Seahawks are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Falcons Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Charlotte Hornets -2

The Charlotte Hornets had Sunday off and will be rested and ready to go after beating the Los Angeles Clippers 102-87 at home on Saturday.  They had lost six in a row prior to that victory, so they should remain motivated here to get things turned around.

Conversely, the Minnesota Timberwolves played Sunday and lost 97-100 at home to the Detroit Pistons.  Now they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  I think this tough spot makes them a nice 'play against' team here today.

Plays against any team (Minnesota) after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team winning 60% to 75% of their games or more on the season are 70-33 ATS over the last five seasons.

The Timberwolves are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss.  The Hornets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Hornets Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Creighton -3

The UCLA Bruins are in a world of hurt right now with all of their suspensions.  They have three key players suspended in LiAngelo Ball, Jalen Hill and Cody Riley.  

Being this short-handed nearly cost them as they needed overtime to beat lowly Central Arkansas 106-101 despite being 27.5-point favorites.  They are 0-3 ATS, only beating GA Tech 63-60 as 9.5-point favorites and South Carolina State 96-68 as 36-point favorites.

Creighton has reloaded nicely this season.  Marcus Foster (19.3 PPG) and Khyri Thomas (17.7 ppg) are playing out of their minds thus far in leading the Bluejays to a 3-0 start, which includes an impressive 92-88 road win over ranked Northwestern as 5.5-point dogs.

UCLA IS 1-8 ATS against good offensive teams coring 84 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Roll with Creighton Monday.

15* Nuggets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -5

After a slow start to the season, the Denver Nuggets have played up to their potential of late by going 8-3 in their last 11 games overall.  They are coming off their best performance of the season, a 146-114 win over the Pelicans. 

Now, the Nuggets are only being asked to lay 5 points to the struggling Lakers.  And this is a good situation for the Nuggets, who will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They’ll be rested and ready to go tonight. 

The Lakers have lost five of their last six coming in, including a 113-122 home loss to the Suns last time out.  They will be playing their 7th game in 12 days.  Lonzo Ball has looked like a bust up to this point and has been getting benched in the 4th quarter. 

The Nuggets have gone 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Lakers.  Denver is 7-1 ATS in its last eight meetings in Los Angeles.  The Nuggets are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 after scoring 125 or more points in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 5-21 ATS in its last 26 after playing two consecutive home games.  Bet the Nuggets Sunday.

25* NBC Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Philadelphia Eagles -3

The Philadelphia Eagles have quietly gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season to post the league's best record.  Yet, they don't get the kind of respect that other teams like the Patriots and Steelers do in the AFC.  Nobody just wants to believe in this team, and until they do they're going to continue showing value against the spread.

I think that's the case again this week as the Eagles are only 3-point road favorites over the Dallas Cowboys.  The Eagles are coming off their bye, so they've had two full weeks to rest and get ready for their division rivals.  Playing an NFC East opponent that won the division last year will have kept the Eagles focused all bye week and not relaxing and being content with what they've done up to this point.

Carson Wentz is guiding an elite offense that is putting up 31.4 points, 377 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  The defense is improving and getting healthier, giving up just 19.9 points per game, 316 total yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  The secondary has gotten back a couple key pieces here over the past couple weeks and will be one of the most formidable units in the NFL moving forward.

The Dallas Cowboys are a mess right now.  The Ezekiel Elliott 6-game suspension has been upheld, and he was forced to miss last week's 27-7 loss to the Falcons.  The offense looked lost without him.  The Falcons didn't bite on play action like most teams would when Elliott is in the lineup.  Instead, they sacked Dak Prescott  eight times, including a franchise-record six from Adrian Claiborne.  They held the Cowboys to just 233 total yards.

A big reason Claiborne had such a big game was because he was going up against a backup left tackle in Chaz Green, who was eventually benched.  Green was starting in place of the injured Tyron Smith, who is questionable to return this week, and his value to this team cannot be overstated.  This offense just isn't going to be as effective without Elliott, who has been one of the top two running backs in the league the past two seasons and is worth more to this team than he gets credit for.

Defensively, the Cowboys have all kinds of issues right now.  They seem to go as Sean Lee goes.  When he's in the lineup, they are an average or better defense.  Without him, they are one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  He is nearly as important to their defense as Luke Kuechly is for the Panthers.  And now Lee is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury he suffered against the Falcons.  Not to mention, CB Chidobe Awuzie, CB Orlando Scandrick, LB Justin Durant and S Jeff Heath are all questionable.

With all of these injuries and suspensions, and with Jerry Jones causing a stir with the NFL, I just don't like the current state of the Cowboys right now.  The Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games off a win.  The Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Eagles are getting healthier with Zach Ertz expecting to return this week, and I think they are looking forward to this opportunity to kick the Cowboys while they're down.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Boise State +2

I have been fading the Iowa State Cyclones regularly the early going because they lost four starters from last year and their leading returning scorer was Donavan Jackson (6.4 ppg). It has paid off so far as the Cyclones are 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS.  

I won against them taking Missouri and Appalachian State and am upset I didn’t fade them against Milwaukee and Tulsa.  I won’t make that mistake again today. Now Iowa State plays a Boise State team that is the second-best squad they have faced this year outside Missouri.  

The Broncos returned three starters from last year and are a veteran bunch.  They have opened 4-0 with some quality wins over UTEP and Illinois State in the first two games of this tournament. 

Boise State is 8-1 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 off an upset win by 10 points or more as a dog.  The wrong team is favored in this game today folks.  Take Boise State Sunday.

15* Bills/Chargers AFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Buffalo +4.5

It's pretty simple with the Chargers.  Bet on them when they're an underdog, and bet against them when they're a favorite.  You would have made a lot of money on Chargers games doing just that over the past several season.  The Chargers cannot be laying 4.5 points to the Buffalo Bills this week.

The Chargers lost a game in true Charger fashion last week, falling 17-20 in overtime on the road as 5-point underdogs.  They had the game all but sealed before fumbling in the final few minutes.  Then Philip Rivers threw one of his patented late-game interceptions in overtime to set the Jaguars up for the game-winning field goal.

I certainly do not like the state of mind of the Chargers right now.  They have come out of their bye week and promptly lost two straight to fall to 3-6 on the season.  That leaves them with a slim-to-none chance of making the playoffs.  And fans of this team won't be showing up to the game now as the Chargers actually have zero home-field advantage, which has been one of the most underrated advantages we have in fading the Chargers when at home.  Cuz they still get treated like a good home team from oddsmakers when there really is zero advantage from them, and more often than not they're getting booed.

The Bills sit at 5-4 on the season.  They have lost two in a row, but the outlook is still bright as they are currently the 6th seed in the AFC if the season were to end today.  I think head coach Sean McDermott made the right move to give the ball to Nathan Peterman at quarterback this week.  He looked great in the preseason and could prove to be a fifth-round steal.

Peterman replaced Tyrod Taylor with less than five minutes remaining in Sunday's 47-10 loss to the Saints.  Taylor had completed just 9 of 18 passes for 56 yards, one INT and a career-low 33.6 passer rating despite the debut of receiver Kelvin Benjamin and the return of TE Charles Clay.  Peterman, making his NFL debut, completed 7 of 10 passes for 79 yards and one touchdown in two offensive possessions.  He led a high-octane offense at Pitt last season.

"I've been impressed with Nate and his maturity as a rookie in a very early point in his career," McDermott said. "He's certainly worked hard. When you look at Nate and what he was able to do through OTAs, through training camp, through preseason and then [Sunday], I thought he did some good things, albeit that was a small sample size in a regular-season game. That said, he has a lot of work do, just like we all do."
McDermott later added of Peterman, "He's ready. I wouldn't make this move if I didn't feel he was ready."

Let's be honest, the offense needs a spark, because the defense cannot continue carrying the load like it has up to this point.  Peterman still has the luxury of a great running game with LeSean McCoy and company.  And I have no doubt he will better utilize his weapons outside in Benjamin, Jordan Matthews and Clay.  This offense has simply underperformed up to this point with Taylor at the helm.

It's worth noting that Philip Rivers has been in concussion protocol this week and his status is up in the air for the Chargers.  Starting tackle Joe Barksdale is out, while starting center Matt Slauson and starting guard Forrest Lamp both have season-ending injuries.  Rivers has been under duress all season, so it's no surprise he took a beating last week against the Jaguars.

Buffalo is 52-28 ATS in its last 80 off two or more consecutive ATS losses.  The Bills are a perfect 6-0 ATS off two or more consecutive straight up losses over the last three seasons.  They are coming back to win by an average of 9.7 points per game in this spot.  The Chargers are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games off two straight road losses.  Los Angeles is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games.  Roll with the Bills Sunday.

20* Rams/Vikings NFC Sunday No-Brainer on Minnesota -2.5

What do the Minnesota Vikings have to do to get some respect?  Until they do, I'll continue backing them as I did last week as only 1-point favorites over the Redskins in their 38-30 road win.  Now they are only 2.5-point home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams this week.  This game could be an NFC Championship preview, and the Vikings want to make sure they get the tiebreaker with a win here if it comes down to it for home-field advantage and a first-round bye.

The Vikings are the real deal.  They have outgained eight of their nine opponents this season, so their record has not been fluky at all.  They are outgaining opponents by 69 yards per game on the season, which is the sign of an elite team.

Defensively, Mike Zimmer has one of the best stop units in the NFL.  The Vikings rank 5th in total defense (294.6 yards/game) and 3rd in defensive yards per play (4.7) allowed, which is the most important stat.  And the Rams haven't seen a defense this good all season.  The only other that would compare would be Seattle, and they lost at home to the Seahawks 10-16.  They also played the Jaguars and managed just 249 total yards against them.

The one aspect of the Vikings that gets overlook is just how good the offense is.  They rank 9th in the league in total offense (363.8 yards/game) and 8th in offensive yards per play (5.6).  Case Keenum has been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL, completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 1,914 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions.  It was the right move for Zimmer to announce he is sticking with Keenum because he has earned it, instead of throwing Teddy Bridgewater in there.

I have been a big Rams' backer this season and still really like this team, but I think the betting public has not caught on to how good they are.  The value has been sapped from the Rams this week because they should be catching more than a field goal here on the road, instead they are only 2.5-point dogs.  That places the value squarely with the home favorite Vikings.

The Rams are 7-2 but they are feasting on some bad teams.  Their seven wins have come against the Colts, 49ers, Cowboys, Jaguars, Cardinals, Giants and Texans.  Five of those teams are terrible, while the wins over the Cowboys and Jaguars come with asterisks.  The Rams were coming off a Thursday game while the Cowboys were coming off a Monday game, so they had a huge advantage in rest and preparation.  And they were outgained by 140 yards by the Jagauars and were aided by two non-offensive touchdowns.

Minnesota has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the NFL.  The Vikings are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games.  Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rams are 28-58-1 ATS in their last 87 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Vikings are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Rams, winning by an average of 18.3 points per game.  Take the Vikings Sunday.

15* Kings/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 199

The Portland Trail Blazers and Sacramento Kings are playing a home-and-home situation here.  They just played last night with the Kings upsetting the Blazers 86-82 as 7-point home dogs. 

I always like backing the UNDER in the second game of these home-and-home situations because familiarity favors defense.  And after they combined for just 168 points last night, I don’t know how the oddsmakers can justify setting this total at 199 a night later.  I think there’s all kinds of value with the UNDER here, especially with how poor the Kings have been offensively this season and how good the Blazers have been defensively. 

Note: I locked this line in at 199 as soon as I could, and it has dropped quite a bit since the opener.  I would still recommend a bet on the UNDER all the way down to 193.   Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER 214.5

Amazingly, the Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets will already be playing for a fourth and final time this season.  Familiarity favors defense, which is why I really like this UNDER tonight in their fourth meeting. 

It’s easy to see that this total has been inflated when you look at the results of the three previous meetings.  The Grizzlies and Rockets have combined for 188, 192 and 207 points in those three meetings.   

That’s an average of just 195.7 combined points per game, which is roughly 19 points less than tonight’s posted total of 214.5.  We’re essentially getting 19 points of value.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on LSU -15.5

I called for the LSU Tigers to be a great team to back as soon as they lost to Troy.  My prediction has certainly come through as they have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five games since.  I've backed them in three of those games and am mad I passed up the other two games.  I won't make that mistake this week.  I'll lay the wood on LSU as 15.5-point road favorites over the hapless Tennessee Vols.

The turnaround started with a 17-16 win at Florida.  They then won 27-23 at home over Auburn as 6-point dogs, and that win looks better and better each week.  They won 40-24 at Ole Miss as 6.5-point favorites.  The Tigers gave Alabama a fight and actually outgained them, but lost 10-24 while covering the 21-point spread.  Then they won 33-10 over Arkansas as 19-point favorites, impressively avoiding a letdown off the Alabama game.  

LSU still has a shot to win 10 games this season, which would be a nice accomplishment in Ed Orgeron's first season, so I expect them to stay determined and focused this week and through their bowl game.  They will feel zero shame in putting it on Tennessee this week and kicking the Vols while they're down.  And, boy are the Vols down.

Tennessee has gone 1-5 in its last six games overall.  The only win came out of conference against Southern Miss at home, and the Vols were fortunate to win that game because they only managed 210 total yards and were outgained by 69 yards by the Golden Eagles.  They have lost three times by 33-plus points during this stretch, including their 17-50 loss at Missouri last week that was the last straw for head coach Butch Jones.

Jones has now been fired as the Vols sit at 4-6 on the season and unlikely to even make a bowl game, mainly because they aren't going to pull off this upset against LSU.  That leaves the job to Brady Hoke.  Tennessee is already losing commits in the wake of the Jones firing, and the young players on this team who were expecting Jones to be their coach for their careers here are certainly questioning their decisions.  I just don't like the state of this program at all right now, and it's time to keep fading away.

Tennessee is managing just 13.2 points and 279.2 yards per game and giving up 34.3 points and 452.5 yards per game in conference play.  The Vols have been gashed defensively against the run, giving up 433 rushing yards to Missouri last week and 257 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry on the season.  That makes this a great matchup for LSU, which rushes for 209 yards per game and 4.9 per carry this season.

Tennessee is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing 300 or more rushing yards last game.  LSU is 8-1 ATS off two straight conference games over the past two seasons.  The Tigers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 road games after two consecutive games where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  The road team is 5-0-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four trips to Knoxville.

Plays against home underdogs (TENNESSEE) - poor offensive team (4.2 to 4.8 YPP) against an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP) after 7+ games, after being outgained by 175+ total yards in their previous game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with LSU Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +9

The spot couldn't be much worse for the Iowa Hawkeyes.  They are coming off back-to-back games against the two best teams in the Big Ten in Ohio State and Wisconsin.  They used a lot both mentally and physically in those two games, and I just don't think they will have much left in the tank for Purdue this week.

It was clear Iowa found lightning in a bottle against Ohio State.  That performance was the aberration and the outlier.  Iowa came back last week and managed just 66 total yards against Wisconsin.  Yes, they scored 14 points, but both were defensive touchdowns.  They lost 14-38 as their defense was manhandled by Wisconsin's offensive line.  Going up against a big, bruising team like Wisconsin will take its toll on an opponent.

I think Purdue comes into this game undervalued after losing four of its last five.  All four losses have come by 10 points or less to some quality teams, including road losses at Wisconsin (9-17) and Northwestern (13-23).  They also had a 12-14 loss at Rutgers in which they outgained the Scarlet Knights by 257 yards.  They also lost 24-25 at home to Northwestern after giving up a late score in the final seconds.

But sitting at 4-6, and with a very winnable home game against Indiana on deck, the Purdue Boilermakers will be 'all in' for their final two games to try and make a bowl game.  After Saturday's loss to Northwestern, Jeff Brohm challenged his players, saying that anyone who didn't want to buy in could turn in their pads.  Monday, he was asked if any players had done so.

"Not as far as I know," Brohm said. "I think everybody will respond. Any time you lose, it's tough. ... but it's a big learning experience. We definitely have had plenty of those.  This is an important week for us. If you don't come ready to play (vs. Iowa), it could be a very big challenge."

Purdue's been more conservative early in games recently, Brohm said, trying to establish a running game. But those days might be over, with Brohm saying Purdue would likely be more aggressive early at Iowa.

"We have to come out on the attack," he said. "If we do some out on the short end, I don't want it to be because we didn't throw enough punches."

Part of that attack may be using receiver Jared Parks some at quarterback.  He is the team's No. 2 quarterback behind Elijiah Sindelar, who didn't practice Tuesday to rest from getting 60 pass attempts and taking numerous hits, while Sparks took the first-team reps.

“They just wanted me to get some more reps,” said Sparks, who was wearing a gold No. 12 jersey to identify the quarterbacks. “They decided to sit Elijah out today to give him some rest. He’ll be back this week.”

Sparks had a career day against Northwestern, catching 11 balls for 130 yards.  Just having him at quarterback with his athletic ability for a few plays would be an added dimension to the offense.  I really think Brohm is going to pull out all the stops this week, which should include a few trick plays that Iowa hasn't seen yet.

Last year, Purdue scored 35 points and amassed 504 total yards on Iowa's defense.  And this offense is much better than last year under the guidance of Brohm, who has already turned Purdue into a respectable football program.  And the defense has made major strides this year, giving up just 19.3 points per game against teams who average 29.6 points per game, holding opponents to 10.3 points per game below their season average.

While Purdue is outgaining teams by 24 yards per game on the season and only getting outgained by 2 yards per game against conference opponents, Iowa is getting outgained by 38 yards per game on the season and by 82 yards per game in conference play.  It's pretty clear to me that Purdue is the better of these two teams when you look at the numbers, and we're getting 9 points with the Boilermakers.  It's a great spot for Purdue fighting for a bowl, too, while it's an awful spot for Iowa coming off those two heavyweight matchups.

Purdue is 6-0 ATS in road games off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the past three seasons.  The Boilermakers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games off a loss.  Purdue is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games overall.  The Boilermakers are 10-2-2 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The road team is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Purdue Saturday.

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia +19.5

The Miami Hurricanes are in an awful spot here.  This is the perfect time to 'sell high' on them and 'buy low' on the Virginia Cavaliers.  The stock couldn't be higher on Miami right now, while the stock couldn't be much lower on Virginia.  That's why I believe we are getting too many points here with the Cavaliers catching 19.5 points against the Hurricanes.

Miami is coming off its two biggest wins of the season.  The Hurricanes thumped Virginia Tech 28-10 at home to seal the ACC Coastal Division title.  Then they beat Notre Dame 41-8 last week to keep their national title hopes alive.  Now they have come out as the No. 3 ranked team in the playoff rankings.

With that ranking comes expectations that they cannot live up to.  And it also comes with national media attention that can take the focus away from 18, 19 and 20-year old kids.  Malik Rosier has been on ESPN doing interviews, as has head coach Mark Richt, and it's just a major distraction that they don't need.  It's safe to say I think this sets up perfectly for them to come out flat against Virginia this week.

Conversely, Virginia has lost three of its last four coming in.  A couple of them were bad looks with a 10-41 loss to Boston College and a 14-31 loss to Pitt.  But they rebounded and clinched bowl eligibility with a 40-36 win over a very good Georgia Tech team.  It's was a huge accomplishment for Bronco Mendenhall to get his team to a bowl game in his second season.  And as expected, they fell flat last week with a 21-38 road loss at Louisville.

Now, with a chance to knock off the No. 3 team in the country, the Cavaliers will be back to being 100% focused for this game.  We've already seen the Cavaliers pull off a huge upset on the road this season.  They went into Boise State and won 42-23 as 13.5-point dogs earlier this season.  That win looks even better now. Mendenhall will have his team ready to battle Miami for four quarters Saturday.

After back-to-back blowout wins over Virginia Tech and Notre Dame, the betting public is quick to forget how lucky the Hurricanes are to still be undefeated.  They won four straight games by 8 points or less against North Carolina, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Florida State.  They snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with late scores in the closing seconds against both Georgia Tech and FSU.  

The Hurricanes have been extremely fortunate in the turnover department to aid these recent victories.  They have forced at least four turnovers in four consecutive games, and I don't expect that streak to continue this week.  They forced four turnovers against both Syracuse (27-19) and UNC (24-19) yet still had to fight tooth and nail to win both games.  Virginia has been good with taking care of the football, committing two or fewer turnovers in all but one game.  They have just 12 turnovers in 10 games this season.

I also like the fact that his is an early 12:00 EST kickoff.  Miami played a night game against Notre Dame last week, and it was a tremendously rowdy atmosphere.  The fans should still be rowdy, but it will be nothing like it was for that night game against the Fighting Irish.  The home-field advantage won't be nearly as strong for this one.

Plays against favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (MIAMI) - after eight or more consecutive straight up wins, a top-level team (80% wins or better) playing a good team (60% to 80%) are 47-17 (73.4%) ATS since 1992.  Plays against a home team (MIAMI) - after going under the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (80% wins or better) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1992.  

The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Miami.  Mark Richt is 2-11 ATS in home games after playing two straight home games in all games he has coached.  The Hurricanes have been home for three weeks now getting nothing but pats on the back, especially all week leading up to this game.  I think they get a bigger fight than they bargained for from Mendenhall and company this weekend.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* UCF/Temple AAC Early ANNIHILATOR on Temple +14

I backed the UCF Knights regularly early in the season.  They did not disappoint as they opened 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS, consistently covering the spread by big margins.  But then the betting public caught on and the oddsmakers had to really over-adjust, and as a result we've seen the Knights fail to cover the spread in their last two games.

After beating Austin Peay 73-33 with no line, UCF came back and only beat SMU 31-24 as 14.5-point road favorites two weeks ago.  Then last week, they only beat a terrible UConn team 49-24 as 38-point favorites.  UConn was playing with a backup quarterback for the first time this season in that game as well.  Now they're being asked to go on the road and lay two touchdowns against an vastly improved Temple team from the start of the season.

Indeed, the Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Oddsmakers have consistently missed the mark on them down the stretch.  They only lost 13-20 to Houston as 11.5-point dogs, won 34-10 at ECU as 3.5-point favorites, suffered a fluky loss at 8-2 Army 28-31 as 7-point dogs in overtime, beat Navy 34-26 as 6-point dogs and topped Cincinnati 35-24 as 2.5-point road favorites last week.  Their only ATS loss came to UConn 24-28, but that was a very misleading final as they outgained the Huskies by 225 yards and clearly should have won.

In fact, the Owls have now outgained five straight opponents by a combined 633 total yards, or by an average of 126.6 yards per game.  That's why I think we can ignore Temple's early season struggles because this is a completely different team now.  This is a team capable of hanging with and upsetting UCF thanks to an average that has come to life, averaging 31 points and 464.8 yards per game in their last five games.  

The catalyst has been QB Frank Nutile, who replaced Logan Marchi three games ago.  Nutile has completed 62 of 91 (68.1%) of his passes for 803 yards and a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio in his past three games.  The Owls have also been much improved defensively in conference play, giving up just 25.2 points, 349.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in AAC action.

This is a clear lookahead spot for the UCF Knights.  They have a game on deck against South Florida next week that is going to decide who wins the AAC East division and moves on to face Memphis in the AAC Championship Game.  The winner of that game will also likely be the coveted Group of 5 selection for a big bowl game against a Power 5 opponent.  I can't help but think the Knights have to be thinking more about the USF game and not paying enough attention to Temple this week.

Temple is 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 conference games.  Temple is 9-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Owls are finishing strong for a second consecutive season.  Don't be surprised if they pull off the upset this weekend, though we'll take the inflated 14 points for some added insurance.  Take Temple Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Louisiana-Monroe +37

Talk about the spot of all spots.  Auburn couldn't be in a worse sandwich spot then it is this week.  After upsetting No. 1 Georgia last week and knocking the Bulldogs clear down to No. 7 in the playoff rankings, Auburn now has an even bigger game on deck against current No. 1 Alabama next week in the Iron Bowl.  That game will be for all the marbles to win the SEC West and go to the conference championship game, while also keeping Auburn's playoff hopes alive.

It's safe to say that Auburn will not be up for this game at all as it steps out of conference to play Louisiana-Monroe.  The bigger concern will be keeping everyone healthy so that they will have all hands on deck against Alabama next week.  That means the starters are likely to get pulled early.  Winning and staying healthy is the priority, not winning by more than 37 points to cover this massive spread.

We saw Auburn in a similar spot earlier this season.  The Tigers were coming off a huge game against Clemson in their opener, and they proceeded to lay an absolute egg against Mercer at home the next week.  The Tigers only won that game 24-10 as 40-point favorites.  I think that result alone against an FCS opponent lets you know that Louisiana-Monroe is more than capable of staying within 37 points of Auburn this week.

And Louisiana-Monroe is much better than Mercer.  I have been impressed with the Warhawks this season.  They sit at 4-6 on the year but haven't been blown out yet.  In fact, their largest defeat has come by 11 points this season.  They only lost 29-37 at Memphis as 27.5-point dogs earlier this season to show what they are capable of.

Plus, Louisiana-Monroe gets two full weeks to rest and prepare for Auburn after last playing on November 4th and having their bye last week.  We last saw them come through with one of their best performances of the season, a 52-45 home win as 8-point dogs against Appalachian State.  That's a very good App State team and their only loss in Sun Belt play thus far this season.  And Appalachian State only lost 10-31 at Georgia earlier this season.

The Warhawks boast a high-powered offense that is putting up 37.0 points, 476 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play this season against teams that only give up 29.5 points, 407 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  It's a balanced attack that averages 194 rushing yards and 281 passing yards per game.  The Warhawks certainly have the offense to score on this Auburn defense and keep them within the number.

Plays against any team (AUBURN) - off a blowout upset win by 21 or more points as an underdog, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a losing record are 42-15 (73.7%) ATS since 1992.  The Warhawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Tigers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four non-conference games. 

Auburn is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite of 20 or more points.  College football underdogs of 30 or more points this season alone are 57-23 ATS.  Bet Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on South Dakota State +22

The Kansas Jayhawks are in a massive letdown spot tonight.  They are coming off a 65-61 win over Kentucky in Chicago on Tuesday.  There's no way they''ll be able to get up for South Dakota State tonight after just playing for Kentucky.

South Dakota State (3-0) is coming off an NCAA Tournament appearance a year ago, advancing as the champion of the Summit League Tournament before falling to eventual runner-up Gonzaga.

The Jackrabbits, favorites to claim the Summit League title, are coming off a 94-63 rout of Alabama State on Tuesday. They have outscored opponents by 22 points on average, with 13.0 3-point goals made and 44.8 percent shooting from that range.

"I was really happy with how our guys shared the ball once we got into a rhythm offensively," South Dakota State coach T.J. Otzelberger said after the Jackrabbits had 23 assists against Alabama State. "Our guys are really sharing it. Obviously when you make a lot of 3-point shots that's going to happen, but I thought a lot of the guys gave great contributions."

Forward Mike Daum was the preseason player of the year in the Summit League and averages team-highs of 21.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.0 blocks and 3.0 steals. The 6-9 junior has two double-doubles.

Kansas is 0-6 ATS in home games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons.  The Jack Rabbits are 20-5 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the past three seasons.  Roll with South Dakota State Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Wizards UNDER 209

This is a home-and-home situation.  The Wizards beat the Heat 102-93 on Wednesday.  Now they play each other just two days later on Friday.  They're obviously familiar with one another now, and familiarity favors defense.  That's why I like the UNDER in this home-and-home situation.

After all, they combined for just 195 points in their first meeting on Wednesday.  Now the books have set this number clear up at 209, which is 14 points more than they combined for on Wednesday.  I think we see a similar result here with under 200 combined points.

Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite are 52-24 (68.4%) since 1996.

Miami is 14-4 UNDER in road games when revenging a loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Wizards last six games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Heat last six games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 6-2 in Miami's last eight games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat +5.5

This is one of my favorite situations in the NBA.  It's a home-and-home situation between the Miami Heat and Washington Wizards.  Washington beat Miami 102-93 on Wednesday, outscoring the Heat 31-19 in the fourth quarter to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. 

Now, playing two days later, the Heat will be the team out for revenge, and thus the more motivated squad.  A lot of being successful in the NBA is handicapping motivation, and there's no question the Heat are the team you want tonight given this home-and-home situation.

That was a rare win for the Wizards in this series as the Heat are still 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings, winning outright as underdogs in three of those.  I think they get their revenge and win this game outright, though we'll take the 5.5 points for some added insurance.  The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Heat are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 meetings in Washington.

Miami is a perfect 10-0 ATS in road games after failing to score the spread in two or more consecutive games over the past two seasons.  It is coming back to win these road games 102.0 to 100.5 on average.  The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Miami is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games.  Bet the Heat Friday.

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona -24

I think Arizona is actually showing value as 'only' 24-point favorites tonight because of the fact that they have opened 0-2 ATS this season.  But both losses came by a half-point as they beat Northern Arizona 101-67 as 34.5-point favorites in a 34-point win, and htey beat MD-Balt County 103-78 as 25.5-point favorites in a 25-point win.

CS Bakersfield won't be able to hang with them today.  This is a Bakersfield team that was good last season, but won't be this season due to all they lost.  They lost their best three players in Jaylin Airington (14.3 ppg), Dedrick Basile (12.6 ppg) and Matt Smith (10.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg).  Their only two returning starters are Brent Wrapp (4.7 ppg) and Shon Briggs (7.4 ppg).

Head coach Rod Barnes didn't bring in any junior college reinforcements as he usually does, instead electing to go young with five freshmen.  There will be early-season struggles, and there already has been.  After beating Whittier 88-66, Bakersfield went on the road and lost 53-77 to a bad Georgia Southern team.  If Georgia Southern can beat them by 24, Arizona should have no problem winning by more than that margin tonight.

Plays against a road team (CS-BAKERSFIELD) - good defensive team from last season - allowed 64 or less points/game, with just two starters returning from last year in the first five games of the season are 51-20 (71.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Sean Miller is 11-1 ATS after a game where his team made 60% of their shots or better in all games he has coached.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

20* Titans/Steelers AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tennessee +7

The Tennessee Titans continue getting zero respect from oddsmakers despite their 6-3 start that has included four straight wins coming into this game against Pittsburgh Thursday night.  They failed to cover as 5-point favorites in a 24-20 win over Cincinnati last week, but that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Titans outgained the Bengals by 108 yards and racked up 416 total yards in the win.

The Steelers have also won four straight coming in, but they continue to get a lot of love from the betting public and oddsmakers, unlike Tennessee.  They aren't getting docked at all for their ugly 20-17 win over the Colts last week as 10.5-point favorites.  The Colts actually led that game 17-3 and arguably should have won despite not having top receiver TY Hilton and missing several key players on defense.

At 7-2 on the season, the Steelers have a three-game lead over second-place Baltimore (4-5) in the AFC North.  I don't expect them to be playing with a sense of urgency because of it, and that showed last week against the Colts.  Meanwhile, Tennessee is in a first-place tie with Jacksonville (also 6-3) and cannot afford to take the foot off the gas.

It's nice to see Marcus Mariota back fully healthy now after dealing with a hamstring injury earlier this year that forced him to miss most of two games.  The Titans are 6-1 in games that Mariota starts and finishes this season.  He threw for 264 yards and rushed for 51 more on six carries last week against Cincinnati, proving that his hamstring issues are a thing of the past.

The Titans have been remarkably healthy otherwise, which has been a key to their success.  The Steelers had been healthy up until last week.  But they are going to be without two key players in their secondary due to injury moving forward.  Safety Mike Mitchell suffered an ankle injury against the Colts and is doubtful, while CB Joe Haden broke his leg against the Colts and is likeley out for the season.  James Harrison is also dealing with a back injury that forced him to miss the Indianapolis game.  Mariota should find plenty of success through the air against the Steelers this week.

The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - off two consecutive home wins, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS since 1983.  The Titans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games off two consecutive home wins.  They are winning these games by 9.7 points per game on average.  Bet the Titans Thursday.

15* Warriors/Celtics TNT Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 216

The biggest reason the Boston Celtics have been able to win 13 straight games is because they bring it defensively every night.  In fact, the Celtics rank 1st in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 95.8 points per 100 possessions.  They are allowing just 94.5 points per game on 42.9% shooting on the season.

The Golden State Warriors are also one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They rank 6th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Warriors have given up 99.2 points per game in their last six contests.

Recent meetings between these teams indicate there's value with the UNDER, and the Celtics were a lot worse defensively than they are this season.  Each of the last five meetings have seen 215 or fewer points at the end of regulation.  They have averaged 201 combined points in those five meetings, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 216, giving us a ton of value with the UNDER.  They combined for 185 and 192 points in their two meetings last season.

Plays on the UNDER on any team (BOSTON) - after four or more consecutive wins against opponent after five or more consecutive wins are 34-8 (81%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Warriors last 17 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  The UNDER is 13-2-1 in Celtics last 16 vs. NBA Pacific.  The UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and would be 9-1 if not for overtime.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Buffalo/Ball State MAC Thursday No-Brainer on Buffalo -20.5

The Buffalo Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate, and that is evident with their impressive 8-2 ATS record this season.  They have suffered three losses by a combined 5 points in conference play, so they have just had terrible luck in close games.

Fortunately, this game will not be close.  That's because Ball State has been the punching bags of the MAC this season.  The Cardinals have gone 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in MAC play, getting outscored by a ridiculous 42.8 points per game in the process.  They are scoring just 10.5 points per game and giving up 53.2 per game in conference play.  Off six straight losses by 28 or more points, the Cardinals just want this nightmare of a season to be over.

Conversely, Buffalo still has a lot to play for.  The Bulls can still make a bowl game if they win their last two games.  They have a tough one up next, but they get Ohio at home, and Ohio proved beatable with a loss at Akron on Tuesday of this week.  I think the Bulls are good enough to beat Ohio and have the confidence to do so.  But first they know they need to take care of business against Ball State this week.

Buffalo is a completely different team with a healthy Tyree Jackson at quarterback.  He missed four games in a row due to injury, and it's not surprise the Bulls went 1-3 in those games, though they were at least competitive.  He returned against Akron and they should have won that game, losing 20-21 despite 303 passing yards from Jackson.  They outgained the Zips by 88 yards in that contest.  Jackson really looked like himself last week, throwing for 406 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Bulls to a 38-28 win over Bowling Green.

The Bulls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Ball State is 1-11 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six conference games.  Fading Ball State is the gift that keeps on giving, and we'll take advantage this week.  Take Buffalo Thursday.v

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Appalachian State +10.5

The Cyclones lost four starters from last year's team in Monte Morris (16.4 ppg, 6.2 apg), Na Mitrou-Long (15.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg), Matt Thomas (12.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Deonte Burton (15.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Their only returning starters is Solomon Young (4.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  They also bring back their top reserve in Donovan Jackson (6.4 ppg).  It's safe to say this is a rebuilding year in Ames, and the Cyclones' streak of six consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances is likely to come to an end.

I backed Missouri against Iowa State in the opener, and the Tigers delivered with a 74-59 victory as 6-point favorites.  But I didn't fade Iowa State in its next game because it was up against a Wisconsin-Milwaukee team that had just gone 11-24 the previous season.  That was a mistake.  Iowa State lost outright at home as 13.5-point favorites 56-74, failing to cover the spread by a whopping 31.5 points.

Now the Cyclones are being asked to lay 10.5 points on a neutral court against Appalachian State.  The Mountaineers have been impressive, winning their two games against overmatched opponents by finals of 135-34 and 93-57.  App State returns three starters from last year in Ronshad Shabazz (16.7 ppg, 66 3-pointers), Griffin Kinney (9.8 ppg, 6.3 rpg) and Tyrell Johnson (7.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg).  Plus, sophomore Isaac Johnson (6.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg) is a double-double waiting to happen and should take a big leap forward after a solid freshman season.

All four guys have made significant contributions early in the season.  Shabazz (24.5 ppg), Johnson (17.0 ppg), Kinney (9.5 ppg) and Johnson (5.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg) have played well.  And two newcomers in O'Showen Williams (10.5 ppg) and Justin Forest (9.5 ppg) have contributed as well.  The Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  They cannot be laying double digits here with how awful they have played.  Roll with Appalachian State Thursday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Northwestern -4.5

The Northwestern Wildcats went 24-12 last season and made the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history.  Not only did they win a game in the tournament, they took eventual national runner-up Gonzaga to the wire in the second round.

Now the Wildcats return four starters from that team.  They are G Bryant McIntosh (14.8 ppg, 5.2 apg), G/F Scottie Lindsey (14.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg), F Vic Law (12.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and C Derek Pardon (8.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg).  This team is loaded and ready to get back to the Big Dance under Chris Collins.

Creighton also made the NCAA Tournament last year, but only brings back two starters in Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas, who have accounted for nearly 40 percent of the Bluejays' scoring through their first two games in wins over Yale and Alcorn State.  The Bluejays lost four key players from last year's team, including Big East Rookie of the Year Justin Patton, who was drafted 16th overall by the Chicago Bulls.

Plays against a road team (CREIGHTON) - good offensive team from last season - scored 77 or more points/game, after a blowout win by 30 points or more are 26-8 (76.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NORTHWESTERN) - good defensive team from last season that held opponents to 42% or less shooting, with two more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first ten games of the season are 46-18 (71.9%) ATS since 1997.

The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons.  After two lackluster performances to start the season in wins but not covers, I think we are now getting a discount on the Wildcats as only 4.5-point favorites tonight.  They will be focused and ready to go with Creighton coming to town.  Take Northwestern Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have been a completely different team since Eric Bledsoe was inserted into the lineup after being traded from the Suns.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three games with him, beating the Spurs 94-87 on the road, and the Lakers (98-90) and Grizzlies (110-103) at home.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (31.3 ppg, 10.3 rpg, 4.8 apg) is having an MVP-caliber season, but he wasn't getting much help before Bledsoe (13.0 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 4.3 apg with Milwaukee) arrived.  Now he has his help with Khris Middleton (18.0 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and Malcolm Brogdon (15.1 ppg, 4.1 apg) also playing well.

The Detroit Pistons have certainly been one of the most underrated teams up to this point, going 10-3 SU & 9-3-1 ATS through their first 13 games this season.  But they have done most of their damage at home with eight home games compared to five on the road.  And with that early success comes expectations that I don't think they can live up to.  They are getting too much respect now from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point road dogs to the Bucks tonight.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team has gone 12-3 straight up in the last 15 meetings.  The Bucks are 6-1 straight up in their last seven home meetings with the Pistons.  Detroit is 5-15 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Bucks Wednesday.

15* Cavs/Hornets ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Charlotte +2.5

The Charlotte Hornets have had four days off between games having last played on Friday.  They will be rested and ready to go against the defending Eastern Conference champion Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.  This extra time off has helped get Nic Batum ready for his season debut after missing the first 12 games with an injury.

The Hornets will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four straight.  But all four losses came on the road, and three were by 7 points or less.  The Hornets are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home this season, scoring 111.6 points per game and shooting 47.2% from the floor at home.

They should feast on an overrated Cavaliers team that is just 7-7 SU & 4-9-1 ATS.  The Cavs have been hit hard by injuries as they'll be playing without Isaiah Thomas, Tristan Thompson and Derrick Rose tonight.  But the biggest problem for the Cavs is they don't play defense, ranking dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency, giving up a ridiculous 111.1 points per 100 possessions.

Cleveland is 1-9 ATS as a favorite this season.  Charlotte is 11-2 ATS versus teams who average 7 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons.  Bet the Hornets Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami Heat -1

The Miami Heat will be happy to be back home following a tough six-game road trip.  They went 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS on the trip with their three losses coming to Denver (by 1), Detroit (by 9) and Golden State.  They upset the Clippers and Jazz and thumped the Suns.

Normally I don't like backing teams off a long trip like that in their first game back home, but I think we are safe to do it here tonight.  That's because Miami has had two days off since losing to the Pistons on Sunday.  It has given them time to take care of their priorities at home, and they should come out 100% focused against the Wizards tonight.

I think the Wizards are getting too much love from oddsmakers right now due to going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  But they have played four straight and six of their last seven at home, and the three straight wins have come against three of the worst teams in the NBA in the Lakers, Hawks and Kings.  Not to mention, they were upset by another bad team in the Mavs 99-113 as 9.5-point favorites prior to the winning streak.

The Heat simply own the Wizards.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Washington.  They were actually underdogs in three of those contests and a 1-point favorite in another.  They clearly have the Wizards figured out.  And I think their biggest advantage is the fact that they have a deep bench, while the Wizards have basically no bench, and that always seems to get overlooked.

Plays against any team (WASHINGTON) - after three consecutive covers as a favorite, in November games are 35-13 (72.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This trend makes a lot of sense and shows there is value fading teams off three consecutive covers as a favorite like the Wizards are right now.  Take the Heat Wednesday.

25* MAC GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Ohio -3

The Miami Ohio Redhawks are prepared for this situation.  Just last year, they started 0-6 before winning their final six games to get bowl eligible.  They were expected to compete for a MAC title with all they had returning in 17 starters and a ton of talent, but this season hasn't gone the way they wanted, mainly due to an injury to QB Gus Ragland and some bad breaks in close games early.

But here they were again this season, sitting at 3-6 and needing to win their final three games to make the postseason.  Ragland returned from injury last week and led the Redhawks to a 24-14 home win over Akron.  The Redhawks outgained the Zips by 147 yards.  Ragland threw for 244 yards and three touchdowns to lead them to victory.

So now they are just two wins away from getting back to the postseason.  They play the worst team in the MAC in Ball State next week, so they will get in if they win this game.  It's safe to say they are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight, and I look for them to get the job done in blowout fashion in what should be their best effort of the season.

Eastern Michigan has had a hard-luck season with close loss after close loss.  The final straw was last week when they lost 30-42 at Central Michigan while self-destructing with five turnovers.  The Eagles are now 3-7 on the season and cannot make a bowl game, so I really question their motivation this week.  I don't expect them to show up at all.

Just looking at Miami's numbers this season it's easy to see that they are much better than their 4-6 record would indicate.  They have actually outgained eight of their 10 opponents this season.  The only exceptions were when they were outgained by 126 yards by Notre Dame and by 70 by Cincinnati.  Miami is outgaining teams by 42 yards per game on the season, including by 66 yards per game in conference play.  That is the sign of a good team and one that should be better than 4-6 right now.

Miami has won nine straight meetings with Eastern Michigan with six of those victories coming by double-digits.  The Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.  Plays on any team (MIAMI OHIO) - average rushing team (140 to 190 RY/game) against a poor rushing team (100-140 RY/game), after allowing 2.0 or less rushing yards/attempt last game are 69-33 (67.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Miami Ohio Wednesday.

20* Kansas/Kentucky ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Kansas -4.5

The Kansas Jayhawks are the better team here over the Kentucky Wildcats.  They have three guys with significant experience, while the Wildcats are starting five freshmen and playing eight freshmen in their rotation.

Kansas returns senior G Devonte Graham (13.4 ppg, 4.1 apg), talented shooter Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (9.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg) and G Lagerald Vick (7.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg).  C Udoka Aubuike (5.0 ppg, 4.4 rpg) is back after being limited to 11 games as a freshman.

Kansas routed Tennessee State 92-56 in its opener.  Graham nearly had a triple-double with 10 points, seven rebounds and 12 assissts.  Freshman Marcus Garrett, the Gatorade Texas Player of the Year who nearly averaged a triple-double his senior season, finished with 10 points and 10 rebounds.

Vick was the leading scorer with 23 points.  Mykhailiuk added 15 points, Azubuike had 13 and sophomore Malik Newman added 12 points.  Newman is a former No. 2 overall recruit who transferred in from Mississippi State and had to sit out last year.

Kentucky only beat Utah Valley State 73-63 as 20.5-point favorites in its opener.  That's the same Utah Valley team that lost by 30 at Duke.  I had Vermont +13.5 against Kentucky on Sunday and watched most of that game.  Vermont nearly pulled the upset, losing 73-69.  It's clear that the Wildcats have some issues, especially shooting the ball and perimeter defense.  They are averaging just 4 made 3-pointers per game on 12 attempts per game.

I like the fact that Kansas has had three days off to get ready for Kentucky, while Kentucky has only one day to get ready for Kansas after playing on Sunday.  The Jayhawks have had the Wildcats' numbers, going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings over the past two seasons.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Kansas Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Brooklyn Nets +7.5

The Boston Celtics are way overvalued right now and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  The Celtics have won 12 straight since losing their first two games of the season, going 10-1-1 ATS in the process.  The betting public is all of this team now, and they're being asked to lay 7.5 points on the road to a pesky Brooklyn Nets team.

Kyrie Irving missed last game due to injury and could miss this one as well.  I also think it's a great situation to face the Celtics here.  They are coming off a huge 95-94 upset win over Toronto without Irving, and now they have an even bigger game on deck at home against Golden State Thursday night.  This is a classic sandwich spot, and I don't expect them to be 100% focused for this one like they have been up to this point.

The Nets have quietly gone 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games.  They pulled off road upset wins over Phoenix and Portland, only lost on the road to Denver by 8 as 12.5-point dogs, and barely failed to cover as 7-point dogs in an 8-point loss at Utah.  This team has been highly competitive this season and should continue being undervalued.

Plays against favorites (BOSTON) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games are 73-35 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games, and 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  Take the Nets Tuesday.

20* Dolphins/Panthers ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +10

The Miami Dolphins should not be catching double-digits against the Carolina Panthers Monday night.  I'll gladly take advantage of this value and back the Dolphins in what will be a closer game than the books anticipate.  This is clearly a 'buy low, sell high' situation that I like.

We'll 'buy low' on the Dolphins, who have lost two in a row to fall to 4-4 on the season.  That includes their misleading 40-0 loss in Baltimore two weeks ago in which the Ravens scored two non-offensive touchdowns and only managed 295 total yards despite.  Then they played well last week, but came up short in a 24-27 home loss to the Raiders.

Jay Cutler clearly showed against the Raiders that he was healthy.  He completed 34-of-42 passes for 311 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions.  Of course, it was a bonus that he got a healthy DeVante Parker back in the lineup.  Parker hadn't been healthy since Week 4.  He contributed five catches for 76 yards in the loss.  His presence will help open things up underneath the rest of the way for guys like Jarvis Landry and Julius Thomas, who both had receiving touchdowns against the Raiders.  Both running backs Kenyon Drake and Damien Williams also finished with six receptions apiece to show their versatility in the absence of the traded Jay Ajayi.

It was really nice to see the Dolphins come through with one of their best offensive outputs of the season, because this team already has a very good defense.  Indeed, the Dolphins rank 10th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 315.4 yards per game.  They have been very good against the run, giving up only 94 rushing yards per game and 3.7 per carry.  That will be key in trying to stop a Carolina team that wants to run first and pass second.

We'll 'sell high' on the Panthers, who have won two in a row since their ugly 3-17 loss to Chicago.  Everyone is quick to forget about that loss because they won 17-3 in Tampa Bay and beat Atlanta 20-17 at home the past two weeks, respectively.  That win over the Bucs doesn't look as good now, and Julio Jones dropped a wide open touchdown pass that would have given the Falcons the win last week.  The Panthers are extremely overrated now as they will be the biggest favorites they have been all season this week.

I just don't trust this Carolina offense to put up enough points to be able to cover a double-digit spread.  The Panthers rank 24th in scoring offense (18.7 PPG), 21st in total offense (313.1 YPG) and 26th in offensive yards per play (4.8).  Those aren't the kind of numbers you would expect from a team behing asked to lay double-digits.

Carolina does have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  The Panthers have been great against the run, but that won't be much a factor here because the Dolphins have one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL already.  The Dolphins are going to rely on Cutler to move the ball through the air, and the weakness of the Panthers is their secondary.  They give up 64.9% completions to opposing quarterbacks.  I think Cutler will have enough success to keep this game close, especially with a weapon like Parker healthy and back in the lineup.

And after beating back-to-back division rivals in Tampa Bay and Atlanta, this is clearly a letdown spot for the Panthers.  Plays against any team (CAROLINA) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 76-32 (70.4%) ATS since 1983.  Plays against home favorites (CAROLINA) - off an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS since 1983.

And he's another system that shows it's a good idea to buy low on teams who have failed recently against the spread by big margins.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MIAMI) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with Carolina.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5

We could look back to the Eric Bledsoe trade and realize the Milwaukee Bucks got an absolute steal.  Bledsoe wore out his welcome in Phoenix, but he has come back determined and motivated to show that he is still a great player in this league.  The Bucks will continue getting the best out of him this season.

In Bledsoe's two games with the Bucks, they won 94-87 at San Antonio as 4.5-point dogs, and topped the Lakers 98-90 at home as 6.5-point favorites.  Now they are only being asked to lay 3.5 points here at home to the Memphis Grizzlies.  I think this is a nice discount as the Bucks are the better team and should roll.

The Grizzlies took the league by surprise in the first couple weeks in winning five of their first six.  But now the Grizzlies have gone 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games.  They have been on the road for a long time as this will be their 5th straight road games following a 96-111 loss in Houston on Saturday.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  The home team is also 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Bucks Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on La Salle PK

The La Salle Explorers return a ton of talent from a team that went 15-15 last season, including 9-9 in A-10 play.  On the perimeter, the Explorers have a pair of guards in B.J. Johnson (17.3 ppg, 6.3 rpg last year) and Pookie Powell (13.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg) who have the skills to play in the NBA some day.

Pennsylvania is getting too much respect here due to returning four starters, but this is a team that went just 13-15 a year ago and is picked to finish in the middle of the pack in the Ivy League.  They will be decent this season, but they have to win this game to cover the spread, and I don't think they can.

Penn opened with a 72-80 road loss at Fairfield despite being 3.5-point favorites.  La Salle crushed St Peters 61-40 at home, easily covering as 9.5-point favorites.  Defense was a problem for the Explorers last season, but after one game I like what I've seen in holding St. Peters to 40 points and 30.6% shooting while forcing 17 turnovers.

Pennsylvania is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less or PK.  John Giannini is 14-2 ATS after a combined score of 110 points or less as the coach of La Salle.  Roll with La Salle Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Heat/Pistons UNDER 202

The books continue to set the bar too high in Miami Heat games.  The Heat have been a completely different team since Hassan Whiteside returned to the lineup from a five-game absence.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in five of six games since his return, including 97 or fewer four times.  He is one of the best defenders in the NBA and a perennial candidate for Defensive Player of the Year honors.

The Detroit Pistons have an eraser of their own just like Whiteside in Andre Drummond.  The Pistons have held four straight opponents to 104 or fewer points, including 99 or fewer three times.  Miami ranks 8th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.7 points per 100 possessions.  Detroit ranks 12th, giving up 102.3 points per 100 possessions.

Both teams also prefer to play at slower paces.  Detroit ranks 21st in pace at 99.1 possessions per game, while Miami is 17th at 100.3 possessions per game.  That helps to explain why this is usually a low-scoring series when these teams get together because they both play great defense and the tempo is closer to a snail's pace.

Detroit and Miami have combined for 197 or fewer points in seven of their last nine meetings.  They have averaged just 195.9 combined points per game in those nine meetings, which is roughly 6 points less than today's 202-point total, showing you what kind of value we are getting.

Better yet, each of the last seven meetings in Detroit have seen 199 or fewer combined points.  They have averaged just 192.1 combined points in those seven meetings, which is 10 points less than this 202-point total.  The UNDER is 21-7-1 in Heat last 29 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 21-5-1 in Pistons last 27 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Vermont +13.5

This is the worst team the Kentucky Wildcats have had in some time.  It's telling that they're not ranked in the Top 10 coming into the season because they are in the Top 10 basically every year under John Calipari.

The Wildcats lost all five starters.  Their leading returning scorer is Wenyen Gabriel (4.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg), who only played 8.4 minutes per game last year.  Kentucky only beat Utah Valley State 73-63 as 20.5-point home favorites in their opener on Friday.  That result will be a sign of things to come for this team as they started five freshmen in that game.

Now Kentucky takes a big step up in class against a feisty Vermont team that went 29-6 last season and gave Purdue all it could handle in an 80-70 loss in the NCAA Tournament.  The Catamounts now return four starters from that team and each of their top four scorers.

Back is American East Player of the Year Trae-Bell Haynes (11.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 3.9 apg) at point guard.  Also back is Rookie of the Year Anthony Lamb (12.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 43 blocks), F Payton Hensen (11.5 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and G Ernie Duncan (8.7 ppg, 40% 3-pointers).  Quinnipiac transfer Sam Dingba becomes eligible this season.

"I think the combination of our experience and the fact that we played three exhibition games, I feel like we're as prepared as we've been heading into the early season here," head coach John Becker said. This roster is loaded from a team that won 29 games a year ago and fully capable of giving the Wildcats a run for their money today.  Take Vermont Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indianapolis Colts +10.5

What more to the Indianapolis Colts have to do to get any respect from oddsmakers and the betting public?  I'm not sure, but I'll take advantage and back them as double-digit home underdogs to the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday.  They should not be getting this many points with how well they are playing right now.

No team is playing harder than the Colts right now.  Two weeks ago, they went into Cincinnati as 11-point dogs and only lost 23-24 after a pick-6 by the Bengals in the fourth quarter.  They only gave up 276 total yards to the Bengals and outgained them by 55 yards.  Then last week they won 20-14 in Houston as 6-point dogs and outgained them by 83 yards, limiting the Texans to just 288 total yards.

Jacoby Brissett is proving that it was the right move for the Colts to trade for him.  The Colts have scored 20 or more points in five of their last seven games overall.  He is really utilizing TE Jack Toyle and star WR T.Y. Hilton, and the two-headed attack of Frank Gore and Marlon Mack is producing week in and week out in the backfield.

Pittsburgh is getting massive love from the betting public and oddsmakers now after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall.  The wins over Kansas City and Cincinnati were impressive, but the 20-15 win in Detroit was very fortunate.  The Lions amassed 488 total yards on their defense, but went 0-for-5 scoring touchdowns in the red zone.  It was the third-highest yardage total in NFL history without scoring a touchdown.

Sure, the Steelers are coming off their bye week, which is usually worth a couple points to the spread.  But bye weeks can come at bad times for teams.  And I think that's the case with the Steelers here.  They were playing well and had a ton of momentum.  Now they've been feeling fat and happy for two weeks straight, and don't be surprised if they come out sluggish.  Plus, the Steelers are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a bye, so Mike Tomlin clearly hasn't been pushing the right buttons.

Indianapolis is a perfect 8-0 ATS after having lost three of its previous four games over the past three seasons.  Pittsburgh is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games after covering the spread in four of its last five games coming in.  Chuck Pagano is 8-1 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more yards per attempt as the coach of Indianapolis.  The Steelers are 8-24-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 November games.  Indianapolis is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota Vikings -1

Let's just start with my favorite trend backing the Minnesota Vikings in this game.  Teams coming back from London off a bye are 11-0-1 ATS since 2015.  The two teams that fit that profile last week were the Rams and Cardinals.  The Rams rolled the Giants 51-17, while the Cardinals made easy work of the 49ers 20-10, both on the road.

Now we're getting to back a great Minnesota Vikings team that is one of the best squads in the NFC as only 1-point favorites against the Washington Redskins in this spot.  The Vikings have gone 6-2 this season.  Their two losses came 9-26 in Pittsburgh in Case Keenum's first start, and 7-14 at home to Detroit in a game they should have won by lost the turnover battle 3-0.  The Vikings have been rolling since.

Indeed, they are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS since.  They beat the Bears 20-17 on the road, came back home and clocked Green Bay 23-10 as 3-point dogs, thumped Baltimore 24-16 as 5-point home favorites, and won 33-16 in London over Cleveland as 11-point favorites.

This isn't a fluky 6-2 start, either.  The Vikings have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season.  They are averaging 358 yards per game offensively and giving up only 282 yards per game defensively with one of the top stop units in the NFL.  They are outgaining teams by 76 yards per game, which is one of the best yardage differentials in the NFL.

The Redskins are in a tough spot here.  They had to travel all the way out West to face the Seahawks last week, and actually pulled off the 17-14 upset as 8-point dogs.  Now they had to travel clear back East.  And that win was about as fluky as you'll ever see.  The Redskins only managed 244 total yards while giving up 437, getting outgained by 193 yards by the Seahawks.  Seattle kicker Blair Walsh went 0-3 on field goals, hooking all three to the left.

A big reason I was on Seattle last week was because Washington's injury report was massive.  The Redskins were without four starters on the offensive line, several starters in their defensive front 7, plus leading receiver Jamison Crowder.  Surely, the Redskins will get back a few players this week, but the fact of the matter is that their injury report couldn't be much worse right now.  They aren't going to be able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat against an elite team like the Vikings this week.  And Minnesota's nasty defensive line will dominate that banged-up Washington offensive line, which will be the difference in this game.

Minnesota is 11-2 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  The Vikings are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games overall.  Minnesota is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games following an ATS win.  Essentially, the Vikings have been massively underrated ever since Mike Zimmer took over.  The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Browns +13

Let's just start with my favorite trend backing the Minnesota Vikings in this game.  Teams coming back from London off a bye are 11-0-1 ATS since 2015.  The two teams that fit that profile last week were the Rams and Cardinals.  The Rams rolled the Giants 51-17, while the Cardinals made easy work of the 49ers 20-10, both on the road.

Another trend that is an eye-opener and makes sense backs the Browns this week.  Teams who are 0-5 or worse and playing with 10 or more days' rest are 18-3 ATS in their last 21 tries.  Winless teams are almost always undervalued, and this just shows how winless teams off extra rest have been such a good bet through the years.

While the Browns are off their bye, the Detroit Lions will be working on a short week after beating the Packers 30-17 on the road on Monday Night Football.  It was a huge win for them as they had lost 24 of their previous 25 meetings in Green Bay.  They exorcised their demons with that win, and now it would only be human nature for them to suffer an emotional letdown the next week.  That's especially the case with the 0-8 Cleveland Browns coming to town.

It's worth noting that the Lions were only 9-point favorites prior to their game against Green Bay last week, and now they're 13-point favorites.  That just goes to show you how the betting public overreacts from a win one week to the next.  We're basically getting an extra 4 points of value now from the look-ahead line.

We saw last year that the Browns did not quit down the stretch.  They were fighting tooth and nail to try and win games, and I think that will be the case again this season.  They have more talent this season and this is still a very young roster, and young teams really benefit from bye weeks.  I expect the best effort of the season from the Browns this week.

Cleveland is 0-4 in games decided by 3 points or less this year, so they have been competitive in at least half of their games.  And most of their losses have been misleading.  The Browns have actually outgained four of their eight opponents, and they have only been outgained by 100 yards or more one time all season.  They are only getting outgained by 12.3 yards per game on the season.  They have an underrated defense that is giving up just 313 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this year, ranking 9th in total defense and 8th in yards per play defense.

Yards per play average is one of the best stats you can use to handicap how good an NFL team is.  Well, Detroit doesn't look very good in either department.  The Lions rank 20th in the NFL in offensive yards per play (5.1) and 25th in defensive yards per play (5.6).  They are gettng outgained by 0.5 yards per play on the season.  That's not the type of team that should be laying 13 points to anyone, especially a team like the Browns off their bye week.  The Browns are getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play for comparison's sake.

Detroit is 28-51 ATS in its last 79 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The Lions are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit road win.  Plays on road teams (CLEVELAND) - after 7 or more consecutive losses, in November games are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983.  The value on the winless Browns is simply too good to pass up this week in this situation.  Take the Browns Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Grizzlies/Rockets UNDER 211

The Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets will already be meeting for a third time this season Saturday.  These teams are obviously very familiar with one another because of it, and familiarity favors defense more than offense.  I think the books have set the ball too high tonight with this 211-point total.

That's especially the case when you look at the first two meetings in this series.  Memphis won 98-90 in Houston for just 188 combined points.  The Grizzlies also won 103-89 at home over the Rockets for 194 combined points.  I'm not sure how oddsmakers can justify this 211-point total.

I think the reason it's inflated is because Houston has gone over the total in five straight.  But they have faced some terrible defensive teams during this stretch in Philadelphia, New York, Atlanta and Cleveland.  Now they'll be up against the Grizzlies, who rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 99.7 points per 100 possessions.

Surprisingly, Houston isn't pushing the tempo as much this season.  The Rockets rank 15th in the NBA in pace at 101.1 possessions per game, which is right int he middle of the pack.  Memphis ranks tied for 29th in pace at 97.9 possessions per game, still preferring to run at a snail's pace with their grit 'n grind mentality.

Houston is 11-2 UNDER in its last 13 home games vs. division opponents.  The UNDER is 15-5-1 in Grizzlies last 21 when playing on 3 or more days' rest.  The UNDER is 13-6 in Rockets last 19 Saturday games.  The UNDER is 24-11 in the last 35 meetings in Houston, and 4-1 in the last five meetings overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -2.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores sit at 4-5 on the season and in need of two wins in their final three games to make a bowl game.  They still have home games against Kentucky and Missouri, as well as a trip to Tennessee to close out the season, so the outlook is very good for the Commodores.  Look for a big effort from them this week.

Vanderbilt is 4-0 in non-conference play and 0-5 in SEC play, so it will also be motivated for its first conference win.  But this has been a brutal schedule as the Commodores have already had to face Alabama and Georgia at home, as well as Florida, Ole Miss and South Carolina on the road.  So this game against Kentucky at home is their most winnable SEC game yet, and I look for them to take advantage.

Kentucky is 6-3 this season, but it's a bit of a fraudulent 6-3.  All six wins have come by 11 points or less, including four by 7 or fewer, so the Wildcats have simply had good fortune in close games.  They are getting too much respect from oddsmakes because they have the better record here, but I don't think they are the better team at all.  They have only had to play three road games all season, and one resulted in a 7-45 loss at Mississippi State.

This is an awful spot for the Wildcats.  Once they opened 6-2 they relaxed and lost at home 34-37 to an Ole Miss team that is in turmoil right now and playing a backup quarterback.  Now the Wildcats have their biggest game of the season on deck against No. 1 ranked Georgia.  I think they'll be looking ahead to that game and won't give Vanderbilt the focus and attention they deserve this week.

Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings and 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  Kentucky hasn't won at Vanderbilt since 2009, while the Commodores have gone 3-0 in their last three home meetings with the Wildcats, winning by 4, 16 and 30 points.  The Commodores are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Kentucky is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  Kentucky is 0-8 ATS after failing to cover the spread in four or five of its last six games over the past three seasons.  The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS after allowing 6.75 or more yards per play in their previous game over the past three seasons.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Commodores.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on DePaul +9

The DePaul Blue Demons will be opening their brand new $173 million Wintrust Arena in Chicago.  They want to prove that this is a basketball program on the rise, and they want to end a nine-game losing streak to Notre Dame in their 105th head-to-head meeting.

"We all obviously want to perform well," DePaul junior guard Eli Cain said in the Chicago Sun-Times. "We want to play well and win the game. We want to show that the change of DePaul's culture is real. It's not just talked about. It's not just something we can go around saying in interviews and put on social media. We want to show that that's the real deal."

Cain (15.6 ppg, 42% 3-pointers last year) is one of four returning starters for the Blue Demons.  Also back is Brandon Cyrus (6.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg), Tre'Darius McCallum (9.7 ppg, 6.8 rpg) and Joe Hanel (4.6 ppg, 4.8 rpg).  They add in three nice transfers led by sophomore guard Austin Grandstaff, who was previously at Ohio State and Oklahoma. 

Max Strus was a Division II All-American guard at Lewis University and scored 52 points in one game last year on 12-of-14 3-point shooting.  6-11 senior center Marin Maric averaged 14.4 ppg and 8.4 rpg at Northern Illinoi last season.  The future is very bright in Chicago for the Blue Demons, and they should be one of the most improved teams in the country after going just 9-23 last year.

Notre Dame comes in a bit overvalued as the No. 14 ranked team in the country.  They bring back Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell, who were two key pieces on a 26-10 team last year.  But they also lose two key players in VJ Beachum (14.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg) and Steve Vasturia (13.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg).  I expect them to take a step back this season.

I think asking the Fighting Irish to go on the road in their opener and win by double-digits to beat us against a vastly improved DePaul team busting out their new arena is asking too much.  Take DePaul Saturday.

15* Georgia/Auburn CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Auburn +3

The Auburn Tigers are the No. 10 ranked team in the country right now despite having two losses.  That's because neither loss was bad as they both came on the road to fellow ranked opponents Clemson and LSU.  They only lost 14-6 at Clemson in the opener, and blew a 20-0 lead to lose 23-27 at LSU.  All seven of their wins have come by 14 points or more, including home wins over Mississippi State (49-10) and Ole Miss (44-23), as well as road wins over Missouri (51-14), Arkansas (52-20) and Texas A&M (42-27).

The SEC is the only conference that could get a team with two losses to the four-team playoff.  And Auburn is a very strong candidate to be that team, because they are going to have a chance to pick up three huge wins down the stretch.  They host Georgia this week and then host Alabama in their regular season finale.  If they can win those two games, they would get a rematch with Georgia in the SEC Championship.  That would give them three straight wins against Top 10 opponents, and the playoff committee wouldn't be able to keep them out.  So the Tigers still have everything to play for and these are must-win games from here on out.

Georgia, on the other hand, is 9-0 on the season.  The Bulldogs could afford to lose this game to Auburn and still make the four-team playoff if they beat the SEC West champ in the SEC Championship Game.  And with that No. 1 ranking in the playoffs right now comes added pressure and expectations that I don't think the Bulldogs can live up to.  I faded them last week and took South Carolina +25.5 in a comfortable cover with a 10-24 loss at Georgia.  And now the Bulldogs are favored by a field goal on the road against an Auburn team that I believe is close to their equal.  But the 9-0 record and No. 1 ranking has Georgia overvalued, while the 7-2 record and two narrow losses has Auburn undervalued right now.

The numbers also show that these two teams are pretty evenly matched.  Georgia is outscoring opponents by an average of 24.9 points per game and outgaining them by 192 yards per game and 2.6 per play.  Auburn is outscoring opponents by 20.0 points per game and outgaining them by 158 yards per game and 2.0 yards per play.  And it's worth noting that Georgia has played five home games and only three true road games, while Auburn has played five true road games and only four home games.  The 20-19 win at Notre Dame was impressive, but Auburn is every bit as good as Notre Dame.  The two other two road wins came at Tennessee and Vanderbilt, two of the worst teams in the SEC.

Auburn wants revenge from three straight losses to Georgia, including two by a touchdown or less the past two seasons.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS after having won two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  Auburn is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 home games vs. very good defensive teams who give up 14 or fewer points per game.  I think the Tigers pull off the 'upset' here at Jordan-Hare Stadium this afternoon.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Georgia Tech +3

Virginia Tech's most important game was last week in a showdown at Miami with the Coastal Division title essentially on the line.  The Hokies laid a complete egg and were never really even competitive, losing 28-10 while getting outgained by 130 yards.  That was the type of dream-crushing loss that will be hard for them to get back up off the mat from.  Look for the Hokies to be flat against Georgia Tech this week.

The Yellow Jackets are just 4-4 on the season and need two wins in their final three games to get bowl eligible.  They still have to play Georgia in the season finale, so their two most winnable games are this week against Virginia Tech and next week at Duke.  Look for them to be treating this like a must-win and for them to put a big effort forth here.

Georgia Tech is much better than that 4-4 record would indicate.  The Yellow Jackets have outgained six of their eight opponents.  But they have suffered 3 losses by 1, 1 and 4 points, which is how close they are to being 7-1 right now.  The only exception was a 14-point loss at Clemson where the Tigers were coming off a bye and a loss to Syracuse, so it was an awful spot, and the Yellow Jackets were still competitive in that 10-24 defeat as 14-point dogs.

The Yellow Jackets have been a thorn in Virginia Tech's side in recent seasons.  In fact, the Yellow Jackets have only lost to the Hokies by more than a field goal one time in the last seven meetings.  The Yellow Jackets pulled off two outright upsets during this five-year stretch, including last season's 30-20 road win as 14-point underdogs.  The underdog is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

The one constant for Georgia Tech has been its dominant at home this season.  The Yellow Jackets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this year, outscoring opponents by a whopping 21 points per game in the process.  This team has been an undervalued commodity for two straight seasons, going 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six home games.  I expect the Yellow Jackets to win this game outright.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* Michigan State/Ohio State FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +16.5

The Michigan State Spartans just cannot get any respect from oddsmakers despite the season they are having.  They are 7-2 and in prime position to win the Big Ten.  They have outgained eight of their nine opponents, and even outgained Notre Dame by 141 yards in misleading 18-38 loss.  Their other loss came in triple-overtime at Northwestern 31-38 in a game where they outgained the Wildcats by 108 yards.  

The only game the Spartans were outgained in all season was their 14-10 win at Michigan in which they were outgained by only 48 yards.  Just looking at the numbers, it's easy to see that Michigan State is an elite team.  They are outgaining their opponents by 99 yards per game on the season.

The Spartans are always one of the best teams in the country to bet in the underdog role.  Indeed, the Spartans have gone 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog with 14 OUTRIGHT UPSETS, including outright upsets against both Penn State and Michigan as double-digit underdogs this season.

Mark Dantonio has had Urban Meyer's number in recent seasons.  They have split the last six meetings 3-3 with the Spartans going 4-2 ATS in those games.  They were 20.5-point home dogs last year and only lost 17-16.  They pulled the 17-14 upset as 14.5-point road dogs in 2015.  They only lost by 12 at home in 2014, upset the Buckeyes 34-24 as 5.5-point home dogs in 2013, only lost 17-16 in 2012, and won 10-7 as 3-point road dogs in 2011.  As you can see, each of the last six meetings were decided by 12 points or less, including four by 3 points or fewer.

I question Ohio State's motivation this week after a crushing 55-24 loss at Iowa last week as 21-point favorites.  They failed to cover the spread by 52 points.  And now they're being asked to lay over two touchdowns to a better Michigan State team that pretty much handled Iowa.  And Ohio State has not played well in all three of its step up against against Oklahoma, Penn State and Iowa.  They lost two of those three, and needed a huge comeback in the fourth quarter to beat Penn State 39-38 at home.

With two losses on the season now, the Buckeyes will not be going to the four-team playoff.  That was their goal coming into the season, and now that goal is shot.  I just don't see them being able to get back up off the mat in time to beat Michigan State, let alone beat the Spartans by more than two touchdowns.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (MICHIGAN ST) - after having won four out of their last five games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 32-5 (86.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take Michigan State Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Rutgers +31

The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming off back-to-back devastating losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.  They blew a big lead and lost 39-38 to the Buckeyes two weeks ago.  They came back the next week and lost on a last-second field goal to Michigan State 24-27.

I really question how they'll bounce back mentally knowing that their dreams of winning the Big Ten and a national title are now crushed.  Now they're being asked to lay a whopping 31 points to an upstart Rutgers team that will be excited to play a nationally ranked foe.  I have no question the Scarlet Knights will be the more motivated team and will out-hit the Nittany Lions this week.

Clearly Penn State's defense can be moved on.  The Nittany Lions gave up 529 total yards to Ohio State and 474 to Michigan State.  Rutgers should find enough success on the ground and through the air to put up a couple touchdowns or more, which is all they'll need to cover this lofty number because their defense is underrated.

Rutgers is feeling good after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall.  The Scarlet Knights pulled the 35-24 upset at Illinois, upset Purdue 14-12 as 7.5-point home dogs, lost by 21 at Michigan as 21.5-point dogs, and upset Maryland 31-24 at home as 3-point dogs.  This team just continues to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.

This Rutgers defense is giving up just 24.9 points and 394 total yards per game this season.  That's where the biggest improvement has come from this team.  And the offense is taking care of the football, which will be key to keeping this game close against Penn State.  The Scarlet Knights have only committed two total turnovers in their last three games combined.

Penn State is 0-7 ATS off a road loss over the last three seasons, only winning 25.4 to 25.1 on average in this spot.  The Nittany Lions are 0-6 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent over the last three seasons.  Penn State is 0-8 ATS off one or more consecutive losses over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a 21-0 system backing Rutgers.

James Franklin has been a front-runner when things have gone good, but he hasn't had that same magic touch when things are going bad.  I look for them to continue to go bad for Penn State this week off those two crushing losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.  Bet Rutgers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Boston College +3

The turnaround at Boston College this season has been one of the best stories in all of college football.  They have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have won four of their last five with their only loss coming to Virginia Tech.  And this team just keeps getting better and better as their last three performances were the most eye-opening.

Boston College won 45-42 at Louisville as 18.5-point underdogs.  They matched the Cardinals score for score and racked up 555 total yards in the win.  They then went on the road and beat Virginia 41-10 as 7-point underdogs.  They amassed 512 total yards while limiting the Cavaliers to 247, outgaining them by 265 yards.  Then they crushed Florida State 35-3 as 6-point home dogs, limiting the Seminoles to just 213 total yards while forcing three turnovers.

Now the Eagles have had a bye week to get ready for NC State.  They will be the fresher, more prepared team and this couldn't be a worse spot for the NC State Wolfpack.

Two weeks ago, NC State went into Notre Dame and lost 35-14.  That loss really hurt any chances of winning a national title.  But the ACC was still up for grabs against Clemson last week.  The Wolfpack fought extremely hard, but the Tigers won that game 38-31 and simply made more plays down the stretch.  They had the Clemson game circled all offseason after losing in overtime to them last year.  

Now, with that loss comes the realization that winning the ACC is no longer an option, and I think the Wolfpack will find it hard to get back up off the mat this week in time to face Boston College.  I also question how much NC State has left in the tank after playing those two physical shootouts, especially defensively.  They gave up 318 rushing yards to Notre Dame and 224 to Clemson.

Now they have to face an Eagles team that is averaging 40 points per game in their last three while putting up 243.8 rushing yards per game in their last five.  Freshman quarterback Anthony Brown has been virtually unstoppable, and the bye week will only help him get better and build off of what he has been doing in recent weeks.  And this BC defense is still one of the better units in the conference, giving up just 24.8 points, 398 yards per game and 5.4 per play on the season, including 24.3, 384.5 and 5.3 in ACC play.

Boston College has had NC State's number in recent seasons, too.  The Eagles are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six meetings, including their 21-14 upset road win as 16-point dogs last year.  The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Boston College.

NC State is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Plays against road favorites (NC STATE) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards/attempt in two straight games are 31-8 (79.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +7

2017 was the first time in a long time that the Bedlam Series between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State wasn't played in the final week of the regular season.  The Big 12 made the switch and moved the game up this year with the thought that it would be possible that these teams who have to play two weeks in a row in the Big 12 Championship if they didn't move it.  It's the first year of the Big 12 Championship since the conference dropped down to 10 teams.

It was a wildly entertaining Bedlam Series with Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State 62-52.  The Cowboys had the ball with a chance to win at the end, but the Sooners got a rare stop and tacked on a meaningless touchdown in the closing seconds when they could have just ran out the clock.  It was kind of the De Facto title game with the loser eliminated from Big 12 title contention.

Now I really question Oklahoma State's motivation.  This is a team with not only Big 12 Championship hopes, but also national title hopes coming into the season.  But after losing to both TCU and Oklahoma at home, those dreams are crushed now.  I think the Cowboys fail to get back up off the mat this week against Iowa State.

Speaking of Oklahoma and TCU, those are two common opponents of Iowa State.  The Cyclones beat the Sooners 38-31 on the road, and the Horned Frogs 14-7 at home.  The Cowboys lost to both by double-digits at home.  And because the Cyclones won both those games, they have the tiebreaker over those two teams.  So if they win out, they will be going to the Big 12 Championship.  

That's a very realistic possibility because after playing Oklahoma State at home this week, the Cyclones have very winnable games against both Baylor and Kansas State to close out the season.  So I have no doubt the Cyclones are going to be highly motivated in this game given their season outlook and what they can still accomplish.

The Cyclones lost to Texas 17-7 earlier this season, and then made the switch at quarterback.  They have been rolling since.  After beating TCU, they did lost 20-16 at West Virginia last week.  It was a clear letdown spot for them.  They didn't show up in the first half and trailed 20-0 in that game.  But they showed tremendous fight and actually had a chance to win it in the end, shutting out the Mountaineers the rest of the way but falling just short by a 16-20 final.

The Cyclones have the second-best defense in the Big 12 behind only TCU.  They are giving up just 14.7 points, 349.7 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in Big 12 play.  Compare that to Oklahoma State, which is giving up 34.2 points, 442.0 yards per game and 5.8 yards per play in Big 12 action, and you can see which team has the better defense here, and it's not even close.  And we're getting a full touchdown with the better defense, the more motivated team, and the home team here.  It's a tremendous value.

Oklahoma State does have a high-powered offense, but that offense may take a hit this week if they are without leading receiver James Washington, who is questionable with an ankle injury suffered against Oklahoma.  Washington has caught 52 balls for 1,133 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 21.8 yards per reception.  And Iowa State's 3-3-5 defensive scheme has mystified the Big 12 this season as they aren't allowing big plays and keeping everything in front of them.  That scheme matches up very well with the Cowboys, who rely almost exclusively on the deep ball to try and move the ball through the air.

Iowa State wants revenge from five straight losses to Oklahoma State, including two narrow losses the past two seasons.  The Cyclones lost 35-31 at home as 11.5-point dogs in 2015 after blowing a 31-21 lead in the fourth quarter.  They lost 31-38 on the road as 14-point dogs last year, again blowing a 31-24 lead in the fourth quarter.  I think they get their revenge this year and likely pull off the upset, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.

The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in Saturday games this season.  Iowa State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 home games.  The Cyclones are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games played on a grass field.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series.  Plays against road favorites (OKLAHOMA ST) - excellent offensive team (at least 440 YPG) against an average defense (330 to 390 YPG) after 7+ games, after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game are 38-12 (76%) ATS since 1992.  I don't think the Cowboys even show up this week after losing to Oklahoma.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Jazz UNDER 195

The Miami Heat and Utah Jazz are two of the most defensive-minded teams in the NBA.  They both have two Defensive Player of the Year candidates at center with Hassan Whiteside for the Heat and Rudy Gobert for the Jazz.  Points will be hard to come by in this one folks.

Utah ranks 25th in the NBA in pace at 98.7 possessions per game.  Miami is 17th in pace at 100.5 possessions per game.  Utah ranks 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 101.0 points per 100 possessions.  But Utah is just 27th in offensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions, while MIami is 23rd at 101.5 points per 100 possessions.

Miami's defensive efficiency numbers (17th, 103.9) are misleading.  Whiteside has missed five games for the Heat this season.  But since he has returned, they have been dominant on the defensive end.  They have allowed 101 or fewer points in four of their last five and an average of just 99.8 points and 41.3% shooting during this stretch.

Miami is 42-23 UNDER as a road underdog over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Heat's last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Jazz last six games playing on two days' rest.  Utah and Miami have combined for 195 or fewer points in six of their last seven meetings.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* 2017 College Hoops Season Opener on Missouri -4

This is the perfect storm.  I want to fade Iowa State because of all they lost in the offseason, and I want to back Missouri because of all they bring back and gained in the offseason.  Iowa State is a clear 'sell' team, while Missouri is a clear 'buy' team.

The Cyclones lost four starters from last year's team in Monte Morris (16.4 ppg, 6.2 apg), Na Mitrou-Long (15.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg), Matt Thomas (12.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Deonte Burton (15.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg).  Their only returning starters is Solomon Young (4.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg).  They also bring back their top reserve in Donovan Jackson (6.4 ppg).  It's safe to say this is a rebuilding year in Ames, and the Cyclones' streak of six consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances is likely to come to an end.

Missouri is a team on the rise under first-year head coach Cuonzo Martin.  The Tigers return four starters in Terrence Phillips (10.4 ppg, 4.4 apg), Jordan Geist (7.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg), Jordan Barnett (12.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and Kevin Puryear (11.8 ppg, 6.0 rpg).  They have a ton or returning experience, but it's the newcomers they have that has me excited about this team.

Nine days after Missouri hired Martin, the top prospect in the 2017 class, Michael Porter Jr., pledged to the Tigers.  Porter's father, Michael Sr., is on Martin's staff.  Guard Blake Harris signed with Missouri the next day, and former Illinois commit Jeremiah Tilman, a four-star prospect, was inked a month later.  In August, Jontay Porter made it official and reclassified to 2017 to join his brother and gave the Tigers another big man and five-start prospect to add to the mix.  Those four joined Texas guard C.J. Roberts and Canisius graduate transfer Kassius Robertson as Missouri's influx of talent.

This is a pretty cheap price to lay for Missouri with all of this talent in their home opener against a rebuilding team in Iowa State.  You won't find this kind of value on them as the season moves along and the betting public realizes how good this team is.  But because they went 8-24 last year, they are flying under the radar.  Bet Missouri Friday.

20* Temple/Cincinnati AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati +3

The Cincinnati Bearcats are much better than their 3-6 record would indicate.  First-year head coach Luke Fickell has done a tremendous job of making this team competitive.  And I certainly like the outlook of this team moving forward from a mental standpoint.

The Bearcats realize that getting to a bowl game is still a great possibility.  That's because after hosting Temple on Friday, they finish the season with two games against the two worst teams in the AAC in East Carolina and Connecticut.  They have been through the gauntlet of their AAC schedule, already facing Navy, UCF, South Florida, SMU and Tulane.  Temple has already faced both ECU and UConn, actually losing at home to the Huskies 24-28 despite being 10.5-point favorites.

Cincinnati outgained Tulane by 128 yards last week in a very good 17-16 road victory.  The game before, the Bearcats outgained SMU by 3 yards but lost 28-31 in overtime.  They weren't overmatched by USF and UCF despite the lopsided scores. They were only outgained by 124 yards by UCF and by 129 yards by USF.  They were only outgained by 17 yards by Marshall in another misleading final the game before.  They only lost 32-42 at Navy the game before, and beat Miami Ohio 21-17 on the road the week before.  So they have essentially been competitive in seven straight games, at least from a statistical standpoint.

This is kind of a sandwich spot for Temple.  The Owls are coming off a huge 34-26 upset home win over Navy last week, and now they have a home game on deck against undefeated and nationally ranked UCF next week.  Don't be surprised if the Owls are looking ahead to that game, and feeling a little too good about their win against Navy to give Cincinnati the attention it deserves this week.

The Owls have been atrocious on the road this season, going 1-3 while losing by an average of 12.0 points per game.  Of course, their 34-10 win at East Carolina is making their numbers look better than they really are.  They lost 16-49 at Notre Dame, 7-43 at USF and 28-31 at Army.

Plays on home teams (CINCINNATI) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games off a win.  The Bearcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet Cincinnati Friday.

20* Seahawks/Cardinals NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Arizona +6.5

This is the 'game of the year' for the Arizona Cardinals.  Sitting at 4-4 on the season, they trail the 5-3 Seattle Seahawks and the 6-2 Los Angeles Rams within their own division.  So if they want any shot of making the playoffs, they have to win this game Thursday night.  That's why I'm expecting a big effort from them here.

I also like the fact that the Cardinals are the fresher team.  They had their bye two weeks ago, then didn't need to exert much effort to dismantle the San Francisco 49ers 20-10.  And playing on a short week in these Thursday night games is a big advantage for home teams.  They had the shorter trip from Santa Clara to Arizona, while Seattle is going to have the much further flight.

The Cardinals are also the healthier team.  Yes, they had two key injuries to David Johnson and Carson Palmer, but aside from those they are relatively healthy.  And the Palmer loss clearly isn't as big as most think.  They weren't playing all that great offensively with him before he got hurt, and Drew Stanton is a Bruce Arians favorite who is one of the better backups in the NFL.  And Adrian Peterson has shown he has plenty left in the tank, rushing for over 100 yards in two of his last three games, including 159 against the 49ers last week.

Conversely, Seattle's injury report looks awful.  Both Earl Thomas and Jeremy Lane were missing in the secondary last week, and the Redskins went 70 yards for the game-winning drive in a 17-14 upset victory over the Seahawks in the closing seconds last week.  Other key defenders missing include Sheldon Richardson, DJ Alexander, Marcus Smith and Cliff Avril.  And that was an awful loss to the Redskins considering they were missing four starters on the offensive line and several other key players elsewhere.

Offensively, the Seahawks could be without WR Tyler Lockett, who injured his shoulder.  They also have key injuries in the backfield with Eddy Lacy and C.J. Prosise unlikely to be available.  Russell Wilson is the team's leading rusher at 34 yards per game this season.  And their offensive line played terrible against a banged-up Washington defense as Wilson was running for his life the entire game.  They only managed 14 points on that soft Washington defense, and have been held to 16 or fewer in four of their eight games this year.

Arizona had had Seattle's number the past two seasons.  The Cardinals are 2-1-1 straight up in the last four meetings.  Arizona won 34-31 in Seattle as 9-point dogs last year.  That made up for their 6-6 tie at home in which they dominated the Seahawks but could only get a tie.  The Cardinals outgained the Seahawks 443 to 257 in that tie game.

Arizona is 31-14 ATS in its last 45 home games vs. good passing teams who average 235 or more passing yards per game.  Bruce Arians is 10-2 ATS as a home dog of 7 points or less in all games he has coached.  The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.  The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

15* Cavs/Rockets TNT Thursday No-Brainer on OVER 228

The Houston Rockets and Cleveland Cavaliers should play in a highly entertaining shootout tonight.  They did in both meetings last season with the home team winning both.  Cleveland won 128-120 for 248 combined points, while Houston won 117-112 for 229 combined points.

The Rockets lost Patrick Beverly, their best defender, and have become even more of an offensive juggernaut this season while taking a step back defensively.  Houston ranks 3rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 108.4 points per 100 possessions.

That's bad news for Cleveland, which ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide margin, giving up 112.4 points per 100 possessions.  But the Cavaliers also remain an offensive juggernaut, ranking 2nd in efficiency while scoring 108.9 points per 100 possessions.  And both teams rank in the top half of the league in pace.

The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last four games overall.  The OVER is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four games overall, combining with their opponents for 231, 252, 232 and 243 points in those four games.  That trend continues tonight as this game gets up and OVER the total.  Take the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* T'Wolves/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +11

The Minnesota Timberwolves are catching too many points on the road to the Golden State Warriors tonight.  I'll gladly scoop up the value here and take the double-digits in a game that will likely go down to the wire.

The Timberwolves are improving rapidly.  It was always going to take some time to implement the new faces in Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague and Jamal Crawford, but it appears the Timberwolves have figured it out.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  And now they come in fresh and ready to go off two days' rest after last playing on Sunday in a 112-94 win over Charlotte.

The Warriors were way overvalued to start the season, going 1-6 ATS in their first seven games.  But they have since gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four, and the betting public is being quick to back them once again.  They have been way overvalued at home, going 1-4 ATS in home games this season with two outright losses to Houston and Detroit.

Minnesota is 20-6 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Timberwolves are 26-13 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Celtics/Lakers ESPN Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on OVER 211

The Los Angeles Lakers are looking to push the tempo this season.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 105.3 possessions per game.  They are starting to gel offensively, but they are still one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA.

The Lakers are averaging 113.5 points per game in their last four.  But they are giving up 107.3 points per game on the season, including 113.0 points per game on the road.  "The chemistry's building," Lonzo Ball said Monday. "We're playing a lot faster, and in half-court we're cutting a lot harder. Guys are knowing where people are at now. It's getting a lot easier."

Now they're up against a young Celtics team that is also firing on all cylinders offensively right now.  The Celtics have scored 101 or more points in each of their last five games.  They have won nine in a row coming in and are averaging 107.7 points per game at home.

Boston is 12-0 OVER in home games after covering five or six of its last seven games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 10-1 OVER after covering four of their last five against the spread over the past two seasons.  The OVER is 11-5 in Lakers last 16 road games.  The OVER is 16-5-1 in Celtics last 22 home games.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Toledo/Ohio MAC Wednesday No-Brainer on Toledo -3.5

At 8-1 on the season and just outside the Top 25, the Toledo Rockets feel like they are still very much alive to be that Group of 5 team invited to a big bowl game.  They trail both UCF and Memphis, but only slightly, and both of those teams have some big games upcoming.

Toledo will be favored in the rest of its games and has an excellent shot of finishing 12-1 if it wins the MAC Title game.  With such big goals still in front of them, I expect a big effort from the Rockets here despite the fact that they beat Northern Illinois last week and likely locked up their bid into the MAC Championship.  They want more.

Ohio, on the other hand, is 4-1 in MAC play leading 4-2 Akron by a half a game after the Zips lost last night to Miami Ohio.  I was on Miami Ohio in that game knowing that Akron had essentially nothing to play for.  That's because Akron hosts Ohio next week in what will essentially decide the MAC East champion.  And it's also the reason this game essentially means nothing to Ohio.  A game against Akron next week is the more important one as it will decide who plays Toledo at Ford Field in the MAC Title game.

Motivation aside, I strongly believe Toledo is the better football team either way.  The Rockets' only loss this season came on the road to unbeaten Miami.  Six of their eight wins have come by double-digits.  They have played the tougher schedule and continue to be underrated week in and week out.

Conversely, Ohio has benefited from an extremely soft schedule.  In fact, the Bobcats have played the 107th-toughest schedule of 130 teams in the country.  Their only real test in non-conference play was at Purdue, and they failed miserably in a 21-44 loss.  They also lost at home to Central Michigan 23-26, a team that Toledo beat going away 30-10 on the road.

These teams are pretty evenly matched defensively, but Toledo has the huge edge on offense.  The Rockets are averaging 521 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play this season.  They have tremendous balance, rushing for 224 yards per game and 5.2 per carry, while also throwing for 297 yards per game and 9.8 per attempt.  Ohio is averaging 424 yards per game and 6.2 per play.

In conference play alone, Toledo is averaging 521 yards per game and 7.6 per play, and giving up 328 yards per game and 4.7 per play, outgaining MAC opponents by 193 yards per game and 2.9 per play.  Ohio is averaging 416 yards per game and 6.0 per play and giving up 340 yards per game and 4.7 per play in MAC action, only outgaining teams by 76 yards per game and 1.3 per play.

Plays against home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - after covering the spread in three out of their last four games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Rockets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games.  Bet Toledo Wednesday.

20* Akron/Miami Ohio MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio -6.5

It's now or never for the Miami Ohio Redhawks.  Sitting at 3-6 on the season, they will need to win out to make it to a bowl game for a second consecutive season.  They haven't had the same magic this year they did last year when they opened 0-6 and went 6-0 down the stretch.

But the Redhawks are in a similar position here and know they've done it before.  Plus, the schedule ahead is very doable.  After playing Akron this week, they get 3-6 Eastern Michigan at home next week and 2-7 Ball State on the road.  They'll be favored in their final three games, so getting to 6-6 is very doable.  Look for them to have a positive mindset moving forward because of it.

Akron, on the other hand, is going to be in an awful spot mentally.  The MAC East is down to two teams right now in Ohio and Akron.  Both are 4-1, while their next closest pursuers are 2-3 within the conference.  And who does Akron play next week? Ohio.  So that game next week will decide who wins the East division and makes it to the MAC Championship at Ford Field.  The Zips will be looking ahead to that game, and they won't be focused this week knowing this game means absolutely nothing to their title hopes.

Akron is a fraudulent 5-4 this season.  The Zips are only averaging 332 yards per game and 5.2 per play offensively, while giving up 444 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play defensively.  So they are getting outgained by 112 yards per game on the season, which isn't the sign of a team that would be 5-4 right now.

Akron has actually been outgained in seven of its nine games this season.  The only two exceptions were against the worst two teams they played in FCS Arkansas Pine Bluff and awful Ball State, which they only outgained by 7 yards in a misleading 31-3 final.  Ball State has been getting blown out by everyone here of late.

The Zips are 4-1 in MAC play, but they were outgained in four of those five games.  They wree outgianed by 15 yards by Ball State in their 34-23 road victory.  They were outgained by 211 yards in their 14-13 road win at Western Michigan.  They were outgained by 293 yards in their 21-48 loss at Toledo.  They were also outgained by 87 yards in their 21-20 win over Buffalo.  As you can see, two of their four wins came by a single point, and they were misleading finals.

Conversely, Miami Ohio is much better than its 3-6 record would indicate.  The Redhawks have outgained seven of their nine opponents this season.  They only exceptions were when they were outgained by 126 yards at Notre Dame, which is a pretty good showing when you look at how good Notre Dame has been.  They were also outgained by 70 yards by Cincinnati.

Despite being 2-3 in MAC play, Miami Ohio has actually outgained all five of its MAC opponents.  The Redhawks are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense in MAC play and giving up only 5.5 yards per play on defense in MAC action.  They are outgaining MAC opponents by 49.2 yards per game.  Compare that to Akron, which is getting outgained by 119.8 yards per game in MAC play, and it's pretty easy to see which is the better team tonight.

It's worth noting that Akron lost leading rusher Warren Ball to a season-ending ankle injury recently.  They were already struggling to run the ball, averaging just 111 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.  Ball averages 4.4 yards per carry on the season, and not having him in there will make them very one-dimensional the rest of the way.  The Redhawks have been good against the pass this season, giving up just 53.5% completions and 203 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.

The Redhawks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  Miami Ohio is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.  The Zips are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Plays on a home team (MIAMI OHIO) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR) against a poor rushing team (3 to 3.5 YPR) after 7+ games, in conference games are 57-25 (69.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Chuck Martin is 13-4 ATS in the second half of the season as the coach of the Redhawks.  Bet Miami Ohio Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +2

The New York Knicks just can't get any respect from oddsmakers.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming to the Rockets.  They have gone on the road and beaten the Cavs by 19, while also beating the Nets by 21, Nuggets by 6, Suns by 13 and the Pacers by 7 at home.

Now the Knicks find themselves as home underdogs once again to the Charlotte Hornets tonight.  This is a bad matchup for the Hornets, who now have Dwight Howard at center.  Howard isn't going to be able to guard Kristaps Porzingis, who had games of 38, 37 and 40 points all in the span of a week during this stretch.

The Tim Hardaway contract looks good now as he's averaging 16.2 points per game.  Getting Enes Kanter in the Carmelo Anthony trade was also a nice coup.  He is averaging 13.6 points and 11.3 rebounds per game.  And Courtney Lee (10.0 PPG, 41.2% 3-pointers) remains an underrated shooting guard.  The PG-by-committee is working out just fine as well.  This is an underrated lineup.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The Hornets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Wrong team favored here.  Roll with the Knicks Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Dallas Mavericks +10.5

The Dallas Mavericks are 1-10 SU & 2-9 ATS on the season.  They have clearly been overvalued up to this point, and the betting public wants nothing to do with them right now.  That makes this the perfect time to 'buy low' on the Mavs in the immediate future.

The Washington Wizards are 5-4 this season but just 4-5 ATS.  And three of their five wins came by 5 points or less, so they have only won two games by double-digits.  They aren't blowing teams out on the regular, and I certainly want to fade them in this spot.

The Wizards are overvalued off their 107-96 win in Toronto as 6.5-point dogs on Sunday.  They have now played the Cavs and Raptors in back-to-back games, two of the best teams in the East.  It's going to be hard for them to get up for the Mavericks now tonight.

John Wall is battling a shoulder injury that forced him to miss the Toronto game.  It would be smart of Scott Brooks to give him another day off here against a team like the Mavericks, so while he is questionable it would surprise me if he plays.

The Mavs are in a stretch right now where they will be playing just one game in a seven-day stretch.  They have gotten extra practice time after a brutal schedule to start the season with three back-to-backs already.  That also makes them a 'buy on' team going forward.

"We haven't had a practice in a long time because of the way the schedule has fallen," Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle told the Dallas Morning News. "That's a very important practice for us, to shore some things up, to work on avoiding the catastrophic turnovers, do a better job of rebounding the ball, those kinds of things."

The Mavericks are 13-1 straight up in their last 14 meetings with the Wizards.  The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Washington is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games when playing on one days' rest.  The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Washington.  Dallas is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings overall.  Take the Mavericks Tuesday.

20* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 226

The Miami Heat have been playing much better defense since Hassan Whiteside returned from a five-game absence due to injury.  Whiteside has played in the last three games, all of which have gone UNDER the total.  He is one of the best shot-blockers in the NBA and doesn't allow many easy  buckets in the paint.

The Heat beat the Bulls 97-91 for 186 combined points, they lost to the Nuggets 94-95 for 189 combined points, and they beat the Clippers 104-101 for 205 combined points.  I think we see a bigger defensive battle than the books are expecting tonight against the Golden State Warriors with this massive 226-point total.

Both meetings between Miami and Golden State went UNDER the total last year.  The Warriors won 107-95 at home over the Heat for just 202 combined points.  The Heat pulled the upset at home 105-102 for 207 combined points.  Asking these teams to get to 227 or more to beat us is asking a lot tonight.

Miami is 13-2 UNDER off a close win by 3 points or less over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 28-15 in all Miami road games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last five games vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Heat last five games when playing on zero days' rest.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets +1.5

The Brooklyn Nets fit a couple of situations that I like tonight against the Phoenix Suns.  The main reason for the pick is that this is a revenge game.  Brooklyn lost to Phoenix 114-122 at home on October 31st less than a week ago.  So the Nets will be out for revenge and should get it tonight.

The Phoenix Suns are in a very tough spot here.  They are coming off a five-game road trip, and I usually like fading teams in that first game back home following a long trip.  Adding to the tough spot for the Suns is that they will be playing the second of a back-to-back after losing 95-112 in San Antonio last night.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for Phoenix.

Meanwhile, the Nets have had two days' rest to get ready for the Suns after last playing on Friday.  So they will be the fresher team.  The Suns had a nice run after making the head coaching change with five straight covers, but their bubble has been burst in their last two with a 13-point loss to the Knicks and that 17-point loss to the Spurs.

Brooklyn is 27-12 ATS in its last 39 road games when playing four or less games in 10 days.  The Nets are 41-19-2 ATS in their last 62 vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  The Suns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Suns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Roll with the Nets Monday.

20* Lions/Packers NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Green Bay +3

The Green Bay Packers are in a big spot here needing a win to keep up with the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North.  And I simply trust them to get the job done here as home underdogs more than the Detroit Lions, who shouldn't be laying points on the road.

The spot couldn't be better for the Packers, either.  They had their bye last week so have had basically 15 days since their last game.  That extra time has allowed Mike McCarthy to install an offense that is more tailored to QB Brett Hundley's skill set.  Hundley wasn't very effective in the rain in his first start against the Saints two weeks ago, but he will fare much better with this extra prep time against the Lions this time around.

The Aaron Rodgers injury wasn't the only major one in Green Bay.  They have been dealing with offensive line injuries all season.  So the bye actually helps that aspect as well as the Packers are expected to expected to have their starting five intact for the first time all season.  The Packers plan to use a run-first game plan behind this O-Line and the emergence of rookie first-round pick Aaron Jones, who has rushed for 346 yards on 62 attempts while averaging 5.6 yards per carry.  The linemen couldn't be more excited.

“I think we have a lot of confidence in what we bring to the table. It’s a matter of one, being healthy enough to do it, and two, going out there and showing it,” David Bakhtiari said as the Packers returned to work earlier this week. “The nice thing (is), we’re going to have some fun.

“Not having ‘12’ is terrible. But, I mean, everybody knows that you’re not going to be throwing as much. So it’s kind of a chance for us to pin our ears back and attack. At the end of the day, you have ‘12’ out there, you’re going to want to put the ball in the hands of the best player in the league as much as you can. Here, (the thought is), ‘Take a little bit off of Brett.’ That’d be nice.”

McCarthy acknowledged that having the line together for the first time; they've started seven different variations in seven games; will factor into his game plan.  “It’ll be great to have those five guys. We’ve talked about this time and time again that the best offensive lines are the ones that line up and practice and play together week in and week out.”

The Lions actually trailed in the 4th quarter in 16 of their 17 games last season, including playoffs.  They were a fraudulent playoff team, and they are fraudulent again this year.  They are 3-4 and are lucky to have that record.  Reality has set in after a 3-1 start, and they've gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  The Lions rank 22nd in offensive yards per play (4.9) and 22nd in defensive yards per play (5.6), getting outgained by 0.7 yards per play on the season.  That's not the sign of a good team, and it's one of the worst yards per play differentials in the NFL, which is one of the most important stats in determining how good a team is.

Finally, Detroit never wins at Lambeau Field.  The Packers are 24-1 straight up in their last 25 home meetings with the Lions.  The Lions are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games as a road favorite, and they shouldn't be favored here.  Detroit is 0-7 ATS after gaining 300 passing yards or more last game over the past three seasons.  The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  Matthew Stafford is now 6-50 in his career against teams with a winning record, going 1-4 thus far against such teams in 2017.  Bet the Packers Monday.

15* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +2.5

The Memphis Grizzlies are in a tough spot here.  They are playing the second of a back-to-back after pulling off the 113-104 upset win over the Los Angeles Clippers yesterday.  They don't have to travel as they will face the Lakers in Staples Center, but I guarantee Memphis players went out and partied last night in Los Angeles and won't be focused for Game 2 of this back-to-back.

The Grizzlies are already banged up with both Mike Conley and Marc Gasol nursing injuries.  Wayne Selden and JaMychal Green are also out with injuries.  Don't be surprised if they play this situation cautiously and at least limit the minutes of both Gasol and Conley.

The Lakers are vastly improved this season.  They have won two of their last three while going 3-0 ATS.  They beat the Pistons 113-93 and the Nets 124-112 at home.  Their only loss came 110-113 in Portland as 6.5-point dogs.  I really like the way this team is playing right now, especially offensively.

The Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing on 0 days' rest.  Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a losing record.  The Lakers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall, including 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Grizzlies are 1-5-3 ATS in their last nine meetings in Los Angeles.  Take the Lakers Sunday.

20* Redskins/Seahawks Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Seattle -7

Injuries have absolutely derailed the Washington Redskins' season.  And after back-to-back blowout losses to Philadelphia (24-34) and Dallas (19-33), the future looks very gloomy in Washington.  I just don't see how this team is going to field a competent team in the immediate future.  Bare with me as I list off all of their injuries.

Jay Gruden named 13 injured players during his news conference Monday, most of whom would be considered questionable this week, and 9 of which are starters.  A new one added to list Monday was receiver Jamison Crowder, who injured his hamstring and suffered a lower leg contusion.  There's a chance he won't play against Seattle, leaving Washington possibly without its mores productive receiver.

Kirk Cousins' favorite TE  Jordan Reed will likely be out Sunday against Seattle, while defensive lineman Matt Ionnidis will undergo surgery Wednesday to repair a broken bone in his hand.  They are already missing first-round pick Jonathan Allen with a Lisfranc injury.  He and Ioanidis provided a strong interior pass rush in the first five games.  They also played starting inside linebacker Mason Foster on injured reserve Saturday.

But the cluster injuries on the offensive line are the biggest concern.  Right tackle Morgan Moses is dealing with two sprained ankles, but he didn't even show up on the injury report.  And Monday's news of the 13 players came after three Redskins starting offensive linemen were inactive for Sunday's loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

"We only have seven guys that we can put inactive. That's the major issue that we have right now," Gruden said. "We have to try to get six of those guys up -- at least -- somehow."

The situation is bad enough that Gruden said if the Redskins had to practice Tuesday, he wasn't sure who would line up at left tackler.  Starter Trend Williams missed last week and may try to practice.  His backup, Ty Nsekhe, also might try to practice but he's been out since Week 2 with a core muscle injury.  And Ksekhe's backup, T.J. Clemmings, sprained an ankle Sunday and had to leave the game in the fourth quarter.

Rookie Tyler Catalina finished Sunday's game at left tackle after starting at right guard before.  Standout guard Brandon Scherff is still recovering from a sprained MCL, so Gruden needs Catalina at that position.  Gruden is hoping that Scherff can increase his activity this week.

The Redskins have only four healthy defensive linemen, so they will have to add another for at least this week.  Two of their four safeties are injured in rookie starter Montae Nickolson (shoulder) and backup Stefan McClure (hamstring).  Starting corner Bashaud Breeland (knee/groin), who was inactive against the Cowboys, is now listed as day-to-day.

"You try to prepare for that with your depth in training camp and obviously your practice squad guys, you try to get them ready," Gruden said. "But, when you get overwhelmed on the offensive line and now at tight end and safety ... it becomes a challenge. But we're going to keep fighting on and put some guys out there and get them ready to play. That's all we can do."

The Seahawks should be able to take advantage of all these injuries and really put a beat down on the Redskins.  This is a Seattle team that is rolling right now, having won four straight coming in while scoring an average of 31.8 points per game.  Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind.  He threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns against the Texans last week. And now the Seahawks traded for LT Duane Brown, one of the top tackles in the league, to help shore up their offensive line.

The Seahawks still have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL, going 11-1 straight up in their last 12 home games.  Seattle is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 home games off a a game where 60 or more points total were scored.  Washington is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games off two straight losses to division rivals.  The Seahawks are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Heat/Clippers UNDER 207.5

The Miami Heat and Los Angeles Clippers boast two of the best defensive centers in the NBA.  It's Hassan Whiteside of the Heat up against De'Andre Jordan of the Clippers.  Both guys are going to make it difficult for the opposition to find easy baskets in the paint in this one.

Whiteside missed five straight games for the Heat, and there were some high-scoring games in there.  But he returned for the last two, and it's no surprise we have seen two straight defensive battles from the Heat.  They beat the Bulls 97-91 for 186 combined points and the Nuggets 95-94 for 189 combined points in those two contests.

The Clippers are coming off three straight overs, but that is the reason this line is inflated.  They opened the season with five straight UNDERS, and that's the team that we can expect to see going forward.  The Clippers are built on defense with Jordan and elite PG defender Patrick Beverly leading the way.

Thhe UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Heat and Clipppers.  They have combined for 200 or fewer points in each of those five meetings.  They have averaged just 193 combined points over those five games, which is roughly 15 points less than tonight's posted total of 207.5.  We are getting a ton of value here on the UNDER as you can see.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* NFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Rams -3

The Los Angeles Rams are one of the best teams in the NFL this season, yet nobody wants to give them the respect they deserve.  That's why they are consistently undervalued week after week, and I think they continue to be this week as only 3-point road favorites over the hapless New York Giants.

The Rams are not only winning, they are dominating the opposition.  Sean McVay has done wonders with the offense as the Rams rank 2nd in the NFL in scoring offense at 30.3 yards per game.  Wade Phillips has the defense playing well as they rank 11th in scoring defense at 19.7 points per game.  And they are only going to continue to get better on that side of the ball.

The offense has the best weapons it has had in recent memory with Todd Gurley, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp and Tavon Austin.  That's a big reason Jared Goff has taken the next step this season, competing 59.9 percent of his passes for 1,719 yards with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 7.7 per attempt.  And the Rams have arguably the best set of kickers in the league with punter Johnny Hekker (47.9 AVG) and PK Greg Zuerlein (21 for 22 FGs), which is an underrated aspect of this team.

The Rams are right in the thick of the NFC West race with the Seattle Seahawks and have a lot to play for coming out of their bye week.  And they lost to the Seahawks (5-2) at home on October 8th, so they do not have the tiebreaker right now.  It makes every game more important for them moving forward to get a lead on Seattle.  And that 16-10 loss to the Seahawks was about as misleading as it gets.

 They outgained Seattle by 134 yards in that game and were clearly the better team, but red zone struggles doomed them.  They really should be 6-1 right now.  They have since responded with 27-17 and 33-0 road beat downs of Jacksonville and Arizona, respectively.  The Rams have actually been at their best on the road, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS while outscoring the opposition by 12.5 points per game.  They also won in Dallas 35-30 as 5-point underdogs.

While the Rams have been fortunate to get to their bye week without any real significant injuries, no team has been hit harder by injuries than the New York Giants.  They are without three of their top four receivers in Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Harris.  They have cluster injuries along the offensive line to Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg, and also key injuries along the defensive line and at linebacker.  

Not to mention, they have suspended top cornerback Janoris Jenkins for the second time in three weeks after he failed to return form the bye week on time.  This team is an absolute mess right now, and at 1-6 on the season, having nothing but pride to play for moving forward.  It's going to be tough for them to find motivation week in and week out to beat teams, and they'll be more concerned with just collecting a paycheck at this point.

The Giants rank 27th in the league in total offense at 296.4 yards per game, and 27th in total defense at 379.4 yards per game allowed.  They are getting outgained by a ridiculous 83.0 yards per game, which is the second-worst yardage differential in the NFL.  In their two games since losing that trio of receivers to injury in a 22-27 loss to the Chargers, they were outgained by 146 yards by the Broncos and by 248 yards by the Seahawks.  That is a sign of things to come for this undermanned, unmotivated squad.

The Rams are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.  The Giants are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a bye week.  And my favorite trend backing the Rams is that teams coming back from London who had a bye the next week are a perfect 9-0-1 ATS since 2015 coming out of the bye.  We have two teams headed in opposite directions here, and it will show up on the scoreboard this weekend.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU +21.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers this weekend as 21.5-point home favorites against the LSU Tigers.  This is a huge rivalry game that always seems to go down to the wire, and I think it will be closer than most anticipate this weekend.

The 'game of the year' line prior to the season on this game was Alabama -12, and now it's been adjusted 9.5 points to -21.5, showing the kind of value we are getting.  Many thought LSU would challenge Alabama for the SEC West title.  But since they lost to Troy, everyone has counted them out.  That has provided extra line value with the Tigers since that loss.

Indeed, LSU has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since losing to Troy.  They won at Florida 17-16 in a game that actually closed LSU -2 but you could find LSU as high as +6.5 earlier in the week, and I got on them at +3.5 in that game and cashed a ticket.  I was also on LSU as 7-point home dogs to Auburn in a 27-23 outright win.  I did fade LSU against Ole Miss the next week, but they even surprised me and kept it rolling with a 40-24 win as 6.5-point road favorites.

You can bet LSU feels it is still very much alive to win the SEC West.  After all, they control their own destiny because if they win out they will be be crowned SEC West champs.  So this game is even bigger for them than it is for undefeated Alabama.  The schedule is very manageable after this with games against Arkansas, Tennessee and Texas A&M, so it's not out of the question if they can pull the upset.

I just like the way this LSU team is trending right now, especially after their best offensive output of the season.  The Tigers racked up 40 points and 593 total yards against Ole Miss last time out.  Derrius Guice was banged up earlier this season and actually missed the Troy game.  But he's back to the form that he closed last season with.  Guice rushed for 276 yards and a score against Ole Miss.  And Danny Etling isn't great, but he doesn't make the big mistake with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season, and he's averaging 9.4 yards per pass attempt.  Avoiding turnovers will be key against Alabama.

I think the biggest reason the Crimson Tide are so overrated right now is because they couldn't have played a much softer SEC schedule up to this point.  Their five SEC games have come against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Arkansas and Tennessee.  I guess you would say Texas A&M is the best team they've faced, and they only won that game 27-19 as 25-point favorites.  And the early 24-7 win over Florida State clearly doesn't look as good now as it did at the time.  LSU is a clear step up in class this week and the best team the Crimson Tide have faced by far.

You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find the last time Alabama beat LSU by more than 21 points.  That's a span of 15 meetings, giving us a perfect 15-0 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 21.5-point spread.  This is simply way too many points to be giving LSU in this rivalry game.  Bet LSU Saturday.

15* Texas/TCU ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Texas +7

Tom Herman is now 14-0 ATS as an underdog as a head coach and offensive coordinator dating back to his time at Ohio State with 11 outright upsets.  He has gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in the role with the Longhorns this season, covering as 16.5-point dogs in a 24-27 OT loss at USC, covering as 8.5-point dogs in a 24-29 loss to Oklahoma, and covering as 7-point dogs in a 10-13 home loss to Oklahoma State.

Now the Longhorns are getting a full touchdown once again on the road against TCU this week.  I think there's tremendous value with them here as this team has improved as much as anyone since the Week 1 upset loss to Maryland.  In fact, the Longhorns are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  And they have been battle-tested against a brutal schedule, so they will be ready for TCU this week.

They nearly beat USC, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and I believe all three of those teams are better than TCU.  The Horned Frogs have been way overrated due to their 7-0 start to the seaosn, and that showed last week with a 7-14 loss at Iowa State.  It was only a matter of time before Kenny Hill lost a game for them because he's simply not that good and he's mistake-prone.

The Horned Frogs' only touchdown last week against the Cyclones came on a kickoff return to start the second half.  The offense was shut out, and they committed three costly turnovers, including two interceptions by Hill in the red zone.  Now Hill has to go up against the best defense he has faced yet.

This is a Texas defense that continues to improve, allowing just less than 30 points at the end of regulation to every team they've played since Maryland.  Sam Darnold and USC only managed 27 points despite going to overtime, Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma were held to 29 points, and Mason Rudolph and Oklahoma State were limited to 13 points despite going to overtime.  This is a defense that is giving up just 21.0 points per game on the season.

TCU has faced a putrid schedule of opposing defenses up to this point.  The Horned Frogs are averaging 37.2 points and 446 yards per game, but that has come against a slate of defenses that allowed 33.9 points and 431 yards per game on the season.  The Horned Frogs do have an elite defense, but it's about on par with this Texas stop unit.

The Longhorns continue to improve offensively as they have topped 400 total yards in three of their last four games while averaging 421 yards per game during this stretch against K-State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor.  It was only a matter of time before Herman got this offense hitting its stride, and that appears to be the case now.

Texas is going to have extra motivation for this game after getting blown out by TCU in three consecutive seasons.  I think the Horned Frogs are in line for a 'hangover effect' from their 14-7 loss to Iowa State last week that all but killed their chances of making the four-team playoff.  So the Longhorns catch them in a good spot and will be the more motivated team to avenge those three consecutive defeats.

TCU is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons.  The Horned Frogs are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Don't be surprised if the Longhorns win this game outright, but we'll gladly take the 7 points for some insurance.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Nevada +22

It hasn't taken much time for the Boise State Broncos to starting getting love from the betting public and the oddsmakers again.  They were a terrible team against the spread for the past one and a half seasons, but they have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games and are starting to command respect from the oddsmakers now.  I think they are getting too much respect as 22-point home favorites over Nevada this week.

A 24-7 win at BYU isn't impressive.  The 31-14 win at San Diego State was a good win, but the Aztecs basically gave that game away with turnovers and special teams miscues.  The 24-14 home win over Wyoming as 15.5-point favorites wasn't that impressive, and the 41-14 win at Utah State last time out as 13-point favorites isn't anything to get too excited about, either.

What I am excited about is this Nevada team.  It was always going to take some time for Jay Norvell to implement his Air Raid system, but now he has the Wolf Pack firing on all cylinders.  They have scored 35, 42 and 42 points in their last three games and have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS as a result.  They beat Hawaii 35-31 as 5.5-point home dogs, only lost 42-44 at Colorado State as 24-point dogs, and lost at home 42-45 to Air Force as 5.5-point dogs.

But unlike Boise State, the Wolf Pack aren't getting any respect from oddsmakers despite their dramatic improvement.  And now they are coming off a bye week since that loss to Air Force to hone in things and prepare for this matchup with Boise State.  They should put forth another great effort here off their bye and continue making improvements.  Plus, I'm sure Norvell has a few tricks up his sleeve that he installed during the bye that will catch Boise State off guard.  He has been great at calling trick plays at the perfect times this year.

I think this is a huge lookahead spot for Boise State with a road game at Colorado State next week.  The Rams were the preseason favorites to win the Mountain Division and will be the biggest contenders with Boise State.  The winner of that game will likely win that side of the conference and advantage to the Mountain West Championship Game.  So I don't think Nevada will have Boise State's full attention this week.

Nevada is 9-1 ATS in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  Boise State is 0-9 ATS in all home games over the last two years.  The Blue Turf isn't the advantage it used to be.  The Broncos are only outscoring opponents by an average of 6.3 points per game in those nine home games over the past two seasons.  I think this one will be closer than expected as well.  The Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Boise State.  Bet Nevada Saturday.

25* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State -3

The Oklahoma Sooners have mostly dominated the Bedlam Series of late, winning four of the last five meetings.  However, this is the first year during this stretch that I actually feel Oklahoma State has the better team coming in.  And they will take out years of frustration on their 'big brother' this weekend in Stillwater.

The Cowboys have been the best team in the Big 12, and I really don't even think it's close.  They have an elite offense that is putting up 44.5 points, 569 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  Mason Rudolph is having a Heisman-worthy season, throwing for 2,866 yards and a 22-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.4 yards per attempt.  He has also rushed for seven touchdowns.  And the Cowboys aren't one-dimensional as their big, beefy offensive line is getting the job done and paving the way for 199 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.

But the real reason the Cowboys are one of the best teams in the country and better than Oklahoma this season is defense.  They have one of the most underrated defenses in the land.  The Cowboys only give up 24.4 points, 358 yards per game and 4.8 per play against teams who average 31.8 points, 431 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  They are holding opponents to 7.4 points, 73 yards per game and 1.1 yards per play less than their season averages this season.

Those numbers have really shown up in Big 12 play despite facing mostly elite offenses thus far.  The Cowboys are allowing 28.6 points, 373.4 yards per game and 4.9 per play in Big 12 play.  Compare that to Oklahoma, which is yielding 33.0 points, 449.8 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play in Big 12 action.

Then you look at who these teams have faced in the Big 12 and it's easy to see that Oklahoma State has gone up against the tougher slate of opposing offenses.  They have both played Texas Tech, Baylor and Texas, but Oklahoma State already had to play WVU and TCU, while Oklahoma has played Iowa State and Kansas State instead of WVU and TCU.

The Sooners have been way overvalued in Big 12 play.  They are 1-4 ATS as their first four games were decided by 8 points or less against Baylor (49-41), Iowa State (31-38), Texas (29-24) and Kansas State (42-35).  And their only cover came last week in misleading 49-27 home win over Texas Tech as 19-point favorites.

Rudolph and company will be able to score at will on an Oklahoma defense that has holes all over the secondary that have been exploited this season.  Their two starting cornerbacks are awful.  The Sooners are allowing 61.1% completions and 7.9 yards per pass attempt this season.  Compare that to Oklahoma State, which only gives up 55.5% completions and 6.4 yards per attempt.  The Cowboys have also been better against the run, giving up 125 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry, while the Sooners allow 142 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.

And the common opponents show that Oklahoma State is the better team this year.  Oklahoma is only outgaining the three common opponents of Oklahoma State by 124 yards per game, while the Cowboys are outgaining those same three foes by 239.4 yards per game.

Last week's 50-39 win in West Virginia resulted in a cover as 9.5-point favorites for the Cowboys, but it was a very misleading final.  It was clearly a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Mountaineers got two non-offensive touchdowns in that game and only managed 347 total yards against this stout Cowboys' defense.

The Cowboys are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.  Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game.  Mike Gundy is 37-20 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Oklahoma State.  Gundy and company get their revenge this weekend.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on South Carolina +25.5

I locked in South Carolina at +25.5.  I love it even more now that Georgia came out ranked No. 1 in the initial college football playoff rankings.  Now the Bulldogs will be getting patted on the back all week leading up to this game, and they are likely to come out flat against the Gamecocks Saturday.  They will also start to feel the pressure of being ranked so highly, which puts an even bigger target on their backs.

But the main reason I like South Carolina this week is because it's also a letdown spot for the Bulldogs off their huge 42-7 win over their biggest rival in the Florida Gators last week.  They finally got revenge on the Gators after years of misery against them.  But that was a misleading final as the Bulldogs only outgained the Gators by 144 yards.  They simply took advantage of huge turnovers and special teams plays.

The Gamecocks have been one of the more underrated teams in college football this season.  They have gone 6-2 with a win over NC State.  Their two losses came to Kentucky and Texas A&M by 10 points or less.  So they have been competitive in every game, and I expect more of the same from them here against Georgia.

Will Muschamp knows how to coach of a defense, and the Gamecocks' defense is the reason why they can be competitive in this game.  They are giving up just 20.2 points, 382 yards per game and 5.3 per play this season.  They have been stout against the run, giving up just 138 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  And that will be key to stopping a one-dimensional Georgia offense that rushed for 284 yards per game and 6.0 per carry.

Georgia coach Kirby Smart and Muschamp were teammates in college at Georgia.  Smart won't be looking to run up on the score on his former teammate.  And it's also worth noting that Georgia has an even bigger game against Auburn on deck, so this is a clear lookahead spot for the Bulldogs.

South Carolina has actually had Georgia's number, winning four of the last seven meetings outright.  The Gamecocks have also gone 8-4-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.  And Georgia has only beaten South Carolina by more than 24 points once in the last 40 meetings dating back to 1974.  That makes for a dynamite 39-1 system backing the Gamecocks pertaining to this 25.5-point spread.  Roll with South Carolina Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -5.5

The Los Angeles Clippers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS on the season.  They are coming off a 21-point beat down of Dallas and are very healthy right now, plus they've had two days' rest to get ready for the Grizzlies.

Memphis started fast but hit the skids due to injuries.  The Grizzlies lost to both the Hornets and Magic at home in each of their last two games.  Now they are going to have their hands full with one of the best teams they have faced this year in the Clippers.

Mike Conley is dealing with an Achilles injury, though he is supposed to play tonight.  Marc Gasol sat out last game and is questionable to return with an ankle injury.  Wayne Selden missed last game and is questionable with a quad injury.  And JaMychal Green is out indefinitely with an ankle injury.  I just don't see how the Grizzlies can be competitive tonight give their current state.

The Clippers have owned the Grizzlies in recent meetings, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  All four of their wins have come by 9 points or more and by an average of 15.5 points per game.  The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.  The Clippers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.  Take the Clippers Saturday.

15* Penn State/Michigan State Big Ten Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan State +9

It's going to be extremely difficult for Penn State to get back up off the mat this week after their crushing 38-39 road loss at Ohio State last week.  It's the type of loss that can really take a couple weeks for a team to get over.  It was basically the De Facto Big Ten Championship Game, and the Nittany Lions lost it.

The way they lost it was even tougher to swallow for the Nittany Lions.  They blew a 28-10 lead in that contest.  They were actually outscored 19-3 in the fourth quarter, giving up the game-winning touchdown pass with 1:48 left.  And Trace McSorley and company went four and out on the next possession.  Saquon Barkley didn't even touch the ball on the final possession, and he was seen on the sidelines chewing out his offensive linemen.  I just don't like the mental state of this team coming in.

But let's be honest, Ohio State was the better team in that game, and the Nittany Lions were fortunate to even keep it close.  The Buckeyes outgained the Nittany Lions by 246 yards.  They racked up 529 total yards on the Penn State defense, while giving up just 283 total yards.  They held Barkley and company to just 91 rushing yards on 35 carries, an average of 2.6 per carry.  I think that effort really shows how overrated Penn State is.

Now the Nittany Lions are being asked to go on the road off that deflating loss and lay 9 points to an upstart Michigan State team that has been underrated all season.  It's also an early start time, so the Nittany Lions could still be sleepwalking through it.  This has upset written all over it.

Not to mention, Michigan State is going to want revenge from an embarrassing 12-45 loss in Happy Valley last year.  But that was a huge misleading final and a bad Spartans team who actually out-first-downed the Nittany Lions 26-18 in that game.  And that was the final game of the regular season with Penn State trying to clinch the Big Ten West, while Michigan State was lacking motivation after already being eliminate from bowl contention.  You can bet Mark Dantonio has not forgotten and will be reminding his players all week, not that he even needs to.

Michigan State is 6-2 this season and could easily be 8-0.  The two losses were misleading.  One was to No. 3 Notre Dame 18-38, and while the score was a blowout, the statistics shows that the Spartans should have won.  They actually outgained the Fighting Irish by 141 yards in that game.  Then last week in their triple-overtime loss at Northwestern, they outgained the Wildcats by 108 yards.  They have outgained seven of their eight opponents this season with the only exception coming when they were outgained by 48 yards in their 14-10 road win over Michigan as 13-point dogs.

Penn State doesn't control its own destiny in the Big Ten West now.  However, Michigan State actually does and still has plenty to play for.  They only have one Big Ten loss, and if they win out they will be crowned Big Ten West champs.  That's because if they can beat Penn State this week and Ohio State next week, they would hold the tiebreaker on the Buckeyes.  With that kind of outlook, it's going to be much easier for the Spartans to get over their overtime loss to Northwestern last week.

The Spartans are back to having an elite defense this season.  They are giving up just 19.6 points per game, 283 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play against opponents that average 28.9 points, 388 yards per game and 5.4 per play.  They are holding their opponents to 9.3 points, 105 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play less than their season averages.  And Penn State is 2-12 ATS in its last 12 road games versus excellent defensive teams who give up 285 or fewer yards per game.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 38-12 (76%) ATS since 1992.

Penn State is 0-7 ATS off a loss over the last three seasons, so James Franklin hasn't been able to get his team to respond very well.  He has been more of a front-runner.  Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in home games in the second half of the season over the last three seasons.  The Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Spartans.  Roll with Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UMass +28

This has all the makings of a flat spot for the Mississippi State Bulldogs.  They are coming off a huge 35-14 road win over Texas A&M last week, which was a very misleading final and has the Bulldogs overvalued as it is.  And now Mississippi State has its 'game of the year' on deck next week against Alabama, so it's a huge lookahead spot as well.

I just can't see how the Bulldogs are going to get up for this game as they step outside the conference to play the UMass Minutemen.  We've seen in the past the Bulldogs fall flat in these non-conference games, most recently getting upset by South Alabama as identical 28-point home favorites last year.  All Dan Mullen will be concerned with here is keeping his guys healthy for that game against Alabama next week, not running up the score on the Minutemen.

There's no question UMass is better than its 2-6 record would indicate.  The Minutemen actually lost their first six games of the season all by 10 points or less.  That includes a 13-17 loss as identical 28-point dogs at Tennessee.  And that was when the Vols were still playing well, not the Vols team that we have seen today.  And either way it's impressive that they went on the road and nearly pulled off the upset against an SEC opponent.

The Minutemen then had their bye week following those six straight close losses to open the season, and promptly took out their frustration with a 55-20 beat down of Georgia Southern as 8.5-point favorites.  They carried that momentum over into an upset 30-27 home win over Appalachian State as 4-point dogs, and App State is one of the better teams in the Sun Belt.

The good part about backing UMass is that they have an offense capable of scoring points on this Mississippi State defense.  They are putting up 29.9 points and 443 yards per game this season behind a passing attack that is averaging 296 yards per game through the air.  The Minutemen have actually outgained five of their eight opponents this season and are outgaining them by an average of 55 yards per game, the sign of a team that is better than 2-6.

I know starting quarterback Andrew Ford is questionable with an injury, but backup Ross Comis has played well in his absence the past two games.  He brings a dual-threat element to the offense, rushing for 132 yards  and two scores on 35 attempts.  He has also thrown for 380 yards with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  He is capable of handling the job if Ford cannot go and has played a big part in their last two victories over both Georgia Southern and Appalachian State.

The Minutemen are actually a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. SEC opponents.  They had that 13-17 loss to Tennessee as 28-point dogs earlier this season.  In 2016, they also played Mississippi State and only lost 35-47 as 22-point home dogs.  They also lost 7-24 at Florida as 36-point dogs last year.  In 2014, they lost 31-34 at Vanderbilt as 16-point dogs.  In 2013, they lost to Vanderbilt 7-24 as 29-point home dogs.  They just have a knack for playing these SEC teams tough, and I'm sure in almost every situation it was a letdown spot for the SEC squad.  There is no bigger letdown spot than this one for the Bulldogs with Alabama on deck next week.  Take UMass Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Heat +5.5

The Miami Heat finally returned to near full strength last time out against the Chicago Bulls.  Hassan Whiteside made his return from a five-game absence, and they promptly dispatched the Bulls 97-91.  They had lost their three previous games without Whiteside, though two of those went right down to the wire with a 90-96 loss to the Celtics and a 122-125 (OT) loss to the Timberwolves.

I think with Whiteside back now, this team should get back to playing the way they did in the second half of last year.  They were one of the best teams in the entire NBA in the second half.  And now that they've started the season 0-5-2 ATS, they are grossly undervalued right now because the betting public wants nothing to do with them.  It's time to 'buy low' on the Heat.

And I love the spot here fading the Denver Nuggets.  The Nuggets are coming off a huge 129-111 home win over the Raptors.  So they were already going to be in a letdown spot, but now they're also in a lookahead spot with an even bigger game coming up tomorrow against the Golden State Warriors.  The Nuggets won't be giving the Heat the full attention that they deserve to be able to cover this lofty 5.5-point spread.

Miami is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games over the past two seasons.  The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Nuggets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Roll with the Heat Friday.