15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Twins -109 

After losing four of their last five, the Minnesota Twins will be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Milwaukee Brewers.  They should get that win at a very nice value of basically even money at home Saturday. 

The 23-year-old phenom Fernando Romero gets the ball for the Twins tonight.  He is 2-0 with a 0.54 ERA in three starts this season while striking out 20 batters in 16 2/3 innings.  He is the future of the franchise. 

Freddy Peralta was awesome in his debut for the Brewers last time out against the Rockies.  But he’s getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He hasn’t proven anything yet and certainly is no better than Romero. 

The Brewers are 23-47 in their last 70 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Twins are 11-3 in their last 14 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 15-5 in its last 20 interleague games overall.  Take the Twins Saturday.

2018 Preakness Stakes Picks:

Win: No. 7 Justify (1/2)

Justify became the first horse since Apollo in 1982 to win the Kentucky Derby after not racing at a 2-year-old.  He did so on a sloppy track and was easily the best horse.  Forecasts are calling for rain all week at Pimlico, so he could get another muddy run.

But it won’t matter either way.  Justify has won all four of his races as a 3-year-old in impressive fashion.  He has won four races by a combined 21 lengths.  He is going from the identical No. 7 post that he went from in the Kentucky Derby.  He should have an easy path to stalk the leaders again.

Trainer Bob Baffert is big on this horse and stated that he could have raced again the next day after the Derby.  Baffert will be going for a record-tying seventh Preakness victory.  He is 5-0 previously when entering a Kentucky Derby winner into the Preakness.  He won most recently with American Pharoah in 2015, which went on to win the Belmont and the Triple Crown.  Justify is a clear Triple Crown candidate.

Place: No. 1 Quip (12/1)

If one horse is going to surprise and beat Justify, it’s going to be Quip.  Trainer Rodolphe Brisset decided to bypass the Kentucky Derby for the Preakness because it’s the Triple Crown race that “fits him best,” according to Brisset.

Quip won the Tampa Bay Derby in March and was second in the Arkansas Derby to Kentucky Derby contender Magnum Moon last time out.  He is a speed horse that likes to run close to the front, which makes his No. 1 post a non-issue.  He will sprint out to the lead and try and make Justify and Good Magic uncomfortable behind him.

There’s certainly no guarantee Quip can beat the two favorites, but he will challenge them at the beginning of the race.  And the fact that he was held out of the Derby for the Preakness means he’ll have the fresh legs that could help him stay near the front the entire race.  He should find the board at solid 12/1 odds.

Show:  No. 5 Good Magic  (3/1)

I picked Good Magic (12/1) to finish 2nd in the Kentucky Derby and that’s precisely where he ended up.  There were a lot of reasons to like this horse coming into the Derby, and many of those same reasons apply here.

Good Magic was a champion 2-year-old and has improved with each start.  He got off to a disappointing start this season, but came back with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.  Underrated trainer Chad Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing last year.  He is a Top 5 trainer nationally, has won 10 Breeders’ Cup races, and is an Eclipse Award winner as nation’s top trainer.

The son of Curlin, Good Magic has the pedigree to be a contender.  Curlin won the Breeders’ Cup and the Dubai World Cup to become one of the all-time greats.  He has already sired a Belmont and Preakness winner, and Exaggerator finished second in the Derby.  Hard Spun, his damnsire, finished one spot ahead of Curlin in the Derby and two spots behind him in the Preakness.  This is the type of pedigree you want to get behind.

Exacta Box:  (7) Justify, (1) Quip, (5) Good Magic

Trifecta Box:  (7) Justify, (1) Quip, (5) Good Magic, (8) Bravazo

Like the Kentucky Derby, I’m picking three horses for the exacta and four for the Trifecta.  Adding that fourth horse in the Derby really paid off as Audible was my fourth choice and he came in 3rd, getting myself and my clients a big win on the Trifecta.  I think No. 8 Bravazo is the most likely to crack the board if Justify, Quip or Good Magic falters.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -110

The St. Louis Cardinals come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost four of their last five, including Game 1 of this series to the Phillies.  I fully expect them to get back in the win column at a nice value at nearly even money tonight. 

Starter Michael Wacha has been solid this season, going 4-1 with a 3.09 ERA in eight starts.  He has been at his best at home, going 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in five starts.  Wacha is 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA in his last three starts against the Phillies as well. 

Jake Arrieta has been very good at home for the Phillies, but he’s just 1-1 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in three road starts.  Arrieta is also 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his last three starts against St. Louis, giving up 9 earned runs and 5 homers in 15 innings. 

The Phillies are 16-42 in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 25-57 in its last 81 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Cardinals are 6-1 in Wacha’s last seven starts.  St. Louis is 27-11 in its last 38 during game 2 of a series.  The Cardinals are 40-19 in Wacha’s last 59 home starts.  St. Louis is 8-2 in Wacha’s last 10 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Bet the Cardinals Friday. 

20* Rockies/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado +129 

I’m confused at the fact that the Rockies are underdogs to the Giants today.  For starters, the Rockies had yesterday off while the Giants hosted the Reds and lost.  So they have the advantage of rest coming in. 

But most importantly, the Rockies have the clear advantage on the mound in this one.  Chad Bettis is a great story as a cancer survivor.  He’s pitching like today will be his last day this season.  Bettis is 4-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in eight starts, including 4-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in five road starts.  Bettis has held the Giants to just 3 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings in his last two starts against them. 

Jeff Samardzija remains one of the worst starters in baseball, and he has been over the past few seasons.  Samardzija is 1-2 with a 6.94 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-1 with an 8.30 ERA and 2.191 WHIP in two home starts.  The right-hander has lost five of his last six decisions against the Rockies.  He is 1-3 with a 7.66 ERA in his last four starts against Colorado, giving up 21 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings. 

Colorado is 11-4 (+12.7 units) as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.  The Rockies are 6-1 in their last seven road games.  Colorado is 25-12 in Bettis’ last 37 starts.  The Rockies are 4-1 in Bettis’ last five road starts.  The Giants are 1-6 in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 2-7 in Samardzija’s last nine starts, including 1-5 in his last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Rockies Thursday. 

25* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets -1 

The Houston Rockets are in must-win mode in Game 2 tonight.  They cannot afford to go back to Golden State down 0-2, or this series is over.  So look for their best effort here tonight, which will be good enough to get a win. 

The Rockets bogged down in the second half of Game 1.  I expect them to make the proper adjustments.  They committed too many turnovers, which led to easy layups on the other end for Golden State.  Look for them to clean that up, and to get more movement from everyone else around James Harden and Chris Paul to make it more difficult on Golden State’s defense. 

Plays on favorites (Houston) - revenging a loss by 10 points more against an opponent that’s off a road win are 117-69 (62.9%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Golden State is 8-20 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  The Warriors are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Golden State is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-120) 

The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory here Wednesday night.  They have lost the first two games of this series to Oakland and will be looking to avoid a rare sweep at home.  I think they get the job done by two runs or more with their ace on the mound. 

Chris Sale gets the ball for the Red Sox.  He is 3-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in three home starts.  Sale is also 4-3 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.862 WHIP in nine career starts against Oakland. 

Trevor Cahill has pitched well in limited action at home, but he’s 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two road starts this season.  Cahill is also 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.518 WHIP in five career starts against Boston. 

Sale is 32-7 vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse over the last three seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.3 runs per game on average in this spot.  Boston is 29-5 as a favorite of -200 or more over the last two years.  It is winning by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday. 

20* Cavs/Celtics ESPN No-Brainer on Cleveland +1 

After getting embarrassed 83-108 in Game 1 Sunday, the Cleveland Cavaliers will respond in a big way here Tuesday night in Game 2.  Look for them to win this game and grab home-court advantage for the series. 

The Cavs shot just 36% as a team in Game 1, including a woeful 4-of-26 (15.4%) from 3-point range.  They had been on fire from distance in the Toronto series, so it was an aberration.  They were probably rusty after sweeping the Raptors and getting five days off in between games.  The rust will be there no longer. 

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cleveland) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, a well-rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 34-15 (69.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Cleveland is 51-27 ATS in its last 78 games when playing just its 2nd game in 7 days.  The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Cleveland is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 trips to Boston.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 2 Tuesday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -135 

The Arizona Diamondbacks come in highly motivated for a victory here Monday night.  They have lost five straight coming in, including a four-game sweep at the hands of the red-hot Nationals over the weekend.  They will get back in the win column in Game 1 of this series with the Brewers Monday. 

Pat Corbin has been dominant this season, going 4-0 with a 2.12 ERA and 0.824 WHIP in eight starts with 67 K’s in 51 innings.  Corbin has been lights out at home, going 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA and 0.588 WHIP in five starts. 

Junior Guerra is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  He got off to a fast start this season in his first three outings, but that was an aberration.  He has come back down to reality of late, going 0-3 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.437 WHIP in his last three starts. 

Arizona is 9-1 off four or more consecutive home games this season.  The Diamondbacks are 16-5 in Corbin’s last 21 home starts.  The Brewers are 1-4 in Guerra’s last five road starts.  Milwaukee is 0-4 in Guerra’s last four starts vs. a team with winning record.  Take the Diamondbacks Monday. 

20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston -1 

The Houston Rockets built their team to compete with the Warriors.  They executed it to perfection during the regular season as they snagged the No. 1 seed to earn home-court advantage, which gives them their best chance to dethrone the champs. 

We got a taste of what the Rockets could do during the regular season against the Warriors.  In fact, the Rockets won two of three meetings despite being underdogs in all three.  They can certainly score with the Warriors, and their defense is vastly improved over a year ago with both Chris Paul and Clint Capela playing huge roles on that end. 

While the Warriors have a tremendous starting five, their bench leaves a lot to be desired.  There’s no question that the Rockets will have the advantage in this series when the starting five aren’t on the floor for the Warriors.  And they typically only play 20 minutes per game or less together. 

The Rockets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on three or more days’ rest.  Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game.  Golden State is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Warriors are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Rockets Monday. 

15* Nationals/Diamondbacks ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Arizona -125

The Arizona Diamondbacks come in highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Washington Nationals.  They have lost four straight, including the first three of this series, and desperately want to avoid the sweep. 

Zack Godley will lead the Diamondbacks to victory.  He has gone 4-2 with a 3.82 ERA in seven starts this season, including 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in three home starts. 

Jeremy Hellickson is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  He has pitched well in his five starts this season, but it’s a small sample size and has mostly come against weak lineups. 

Hellickson has never beaten the Diamondbacks.  He is 0-3 (0-5 against the money line) with a 4.94 ERA in five career starts against Arizona.  You can take this never lost system backing Arizona straight to the bank tonight.  Take the Diamondbacks Sunday. 

20* Cavs/Celtics ABC Sunday ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland -1.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a different team in these playoffs.  Lebron James is playing like the MVP he is, and the role players like Kyle Korver, JR Smith and Kevin Love have really stepped up and knocked down open shot after open shot. 

On paper, this is a complete mismatch.  The Cavs are by far the superior team talent-wise.  The 76ers were too last series, but the youth of Philadelphia really showed.  Boston won the last five minutes of the first half and the 4th quarter almost every single game. 

That won’t happen against the Cavaliers, who are a much more veteran squad and used to making it to the NBA Finals at this point.  Brad Stevens has gotten the Celtics this far, and while I have a ton of respect for him, not even he can conjure up a game plan that’s going to be able to stop Lebron and company. 

The Cavs are 10-1 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last two seasons.  Cleveland is 51-26 ATS in its last 77 when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days. 

Plays against home underdogs (Boston) - revenging a blowout loss by 20 points or more, when they’re off a close home win by 3 points or less are 34-8 (81%) ATS since 1996.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -128 

The Atlanta Braves are playing their best baseball on the road this season.  They are 14-7 (+10 units) on the highway and have won 10 of their last 11 away from home overall. 

The Marlins aren’t going to offer much resistance today.  They have lost four straight while getting outscored 11-40 in the process.  They are now just 13-24 on the season, hitting .223 and scoring 3.4 runs per game as a team. 

Brandon McCarthy should be able to shut down this weak Marlins’ lineup.  McCarthy is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in four road starts this season.  He has never lost to the Marlins, going 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.915 WHIP in three career starts against them. 

Daniel Straily is off to a rough start this season.  He has battled injury and has made just two starts, going 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA and 2.125 WHIP.  Straily is also 2-2 with a 5.52 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six career starts against Atlanta. 

The Braves are 10-1 in their last 11 road games.  Atlanta is 4-0 in McCarthy’s last four starts vs. NL East opponents.  The Braves are 6-0 in their last six vs. NL East foes.  Atlanta is 43-21 in the last 64 meetings in Miami.  Bet the Braves Friday.

20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -107

The Atlanta Braves are showing great value today at basically even money against the lowly Miami Marlins.  The Braves are 13-7 (+9 units) on the road this season.  They are scoring 5.4 RPG this year compared to 3.4 RPG by the Marlins, so they clearly have the superior offense, especially with their top two prospects now in the lineup. 

Mike Foltynewicz is having a solid season at 2-2 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.351 WHIP in seven starts to go along with 43 K’s in 37 innings.  Folty has been at his best on the road, going 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.213 WHIP in three starts. 

Caleb Smith is getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He is having a good season at 2-3 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.165 WHIP in seven starts, but he’s no better than Folty.  And he certainly isn’t going to get much run support in this one. 

The Braves are 7-0 in their last seven road games.  The Marlins are 0-7 in their last seven after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Atlanta is 6-1 in Folty’s last seven starts against the Marlins.  Bet the Braves Thursday. 

15* Diamondbacks/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -116 

The Los Angeles Dodgers have little margin for error now that they’ve dug themselves such a big hole in the NL West standings.  The team they are chasing is the Diamondbacks, and they need to win this series with them, so there will be some added motivation here Wednesday night. 

Patrick Corbin is having a great season, but once again he’s doing most of his damage at home, which has been the case in his young career.  Corbin is 22-25 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.396 WHIP in 63 starters and nine relief appearances on the road in his career.  He is 0-0 with a 4.50 ERA in two road starts this season. Corbin is also 4-9 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.466 WHIP in 16 career starts against Los Angeles. 

Alex Wood will be highly motivated for his first victory this season.  He is 0-3 in spite of a 3.82 ERA and 0.925 WHIP with 38 K’s in 40 innings, so he has pitched well, but he’s been a tough-luck starter.  Wood enjoys facing the Diamondbacks, going 4-4 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.108 WHIP in 10 career starts against them. 

The Diamondbacks are 6-16 in Corbin’s last 22 road starts.  The Dodgers are 42-15 in their last 57 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Los Angeles is 116-53 in its last 169 home games.  The Dodgers are 22-9 in Wood’s last 31 starts.  Los Angeles is 30-12 in its last 42 home meetings with Arizona.  The Diamondbacks are 1-6 in Corbin’s last seven starts vs. Dodgers.  Roll with the Dodgers Wednesday. 

20* 76ers/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Boston +1 

The Boston Celtics took their foot off the gas in Game 4 after taking a 3-0 lead in this series.  They won’t make that mistake playing at home in a close out contest in Game 5 tonight.  Look for a big effort from the Celtics here. 

The Celtics are a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.  That includes 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the playoffs.  They have one of the toughest atmospheres for an opponent in the league.  These young 76ers haven’t handled it well, and the young Bucks didn’t handle it well last series, either. 

The 76ers have just struggled offensively in these playoffs.  They have school 43% or worse in six consecutive games now.  They are lost on offense and are hoisting way too many contested 3-pointers.  They can’t be trusted to slow it down and execute with their season on the line on the road tonight. 

Boston is a perfect 10-0 ATS as a home underdog this season.  It is not only winning these games, but winning them by 6.5 points per game on average.  The Celtics are also a perfect 10-0 ATS when revenging a blowout loss by 10 points or more this season.  Bet the Celtics Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -106 

The Atlanta Braves have played their best baseball on the road this season.  They are 12-7 (+8.0 units) on the highway this year.  They took Game 1 of this series with the Rays, and I look for them to take Game 2 as well due to their advantage on the mound. 

Julio Teheran is one of the rare starters in this league that actually pitched better on the road than at home.  He’s certainly one of the few that isn’t ballpark-related.  Teheran is 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in three road starts this season, and 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.765 WHIP in his last three starts.  He was great on the road last year and it has carried over this season. 

Ryan Yarbrough will be making just his second start of the season for the Rays.  He lasted just 4 2/3 innings while giving up 2 earned runs in a 4-10 home loss to the Philadelphia Phillies on April 15th.  He is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here as this line is basically even money. 

The Braves are 10-4 in Teheran’s last 14 starts.  The Braves are 6-0 in their last six road games.  Atlanta is 9-2 in its last 11 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rays are 2-12 in their last 14 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Braves Wednesday. 

25* NBA 2nd Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Pelicans/Warriors UNDER 228.5 

The books have set the bar too high in Game 5 between the Pelicans and Warriors.  This total of 228.5 is 5 points higher than Game 1’s total of 223.  This despite the fact that the Warriors and Pelicans have combined for 224 or fewer points in three of the four games thus far. 

The last two games have been the lowest-scoring yet, and this goes along with my theory that points are harder to come by as a series progresses.  After combining for just 219 points in Game 3, they combined for only 210 in Game 4.  I expect a similar output here in Game 5 now that these teams are so familiar with one another. 

The UNDER is 8-3 in Pelicans last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 12-5 in Warriors’ last 17 games when playing on one days’ rest.  The Warriors are 20-10 UNDER off a road win this season.  New Orleans is 21-9 UNDER in road games off two or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* Astros/A’s AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Oakland +133 

The Oakland A’s should not be home underdog to the Houston Astros Tuesday night.  The A’s will be highly motivated to bounce back from a 16-2 loss to the Astros in Game 1.  That win for Houston ended a 1-5 stretch for them. 

Oakland clearly has the advantage on the mound today behind ace Sean Manaea.  The left-hander has gone 4-3 with a 1.63 ERA and 0.664 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 2-1 with a 0.73 ERA and 0.405 WHIP in three home starts.  Manaea is 2-3 with a 2.12 ERA and 1.157 WHIP in nine career starts against Houston. 

Lance McCullers has been had one of the most drastic splits home and away in his career.  He is 14-5 with a 2.39 ERA at home in 32 starts compared to 9-12 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.460 WHIP in 33 road starts.  McCullers is also 2-1 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.444 WHIP in five career starts against Oakland.  Only one of those starts was on the road, where he gave up 5 earned runs and 9 base runners in 4 1/3 innings. 

Oakland is 9-2 (+10.3 units) at home when playing against a team with a winning % from 54% to 62% over the last two seasons.  The A’s are 20-7 in their last 27 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Oakland is 11-4 in Manaea’s last 15 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The A’s are 5-0 in Manaea’s last five starts when working on 4 days of rest.  Roll with the A’s Tuesday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +121 

The Atlanta Braves are one of the most underrated teams in baseball.  They have gotten off to a 19-14 start this season, and they have been really good since calling up their top two prospects.  They are hitting .273 and scoring 5.5 runs per game as a team. 

Speaking of underrated, starter Sean Newcomb is off to a great start this season for the Braves.  He is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in six starts, including 2-0 with a 2.22 ERA in four road starts.  He has 42 K’s in 34 2/3 innings this season. 

Blake Snell has put up great numbers for the Rays and is certainly having a good season.  But the difference in this game is that he’s not likely to get much run support.  The Rays are hitting .262 and scoring 4.4 runs per game as a team this year.  Their lineup is one of the worst in baseball. 

Atlanta is 11-3 (+10.6 units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season, including 7-1 (+7.7 units) as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this year.  The Braves are 5-0 in their last five road games.  Atlanta is 8-2 in its last 10 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Rays are 2-11 in their last 13 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Tampa Bay is 1-4 in Snell’s last five interleague starts.  Take the Braves Tuesday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -132 

The Houston Astros come in highly motivated for a victory here Monday night.  They have gone just 1-5 in their last six games overall.  They will get back on track with a blowout win in Game 1 of this series against the Oakland A’s. 

The recent rough patch came against the hottest team in baseball in the Yankees, and on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are one of the best teams in the National League.  The A’s don’t have the firepower that either of those two teams possess. 

Dallas Keuchel isn’t off to the best start this season and will also be motivated to turn it around.  He is 1-5 with a 3.98 ERA and 1.233 WHIP in seven starts.  Kuechel is 5-5 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in 17 career starts against Oakland. 

Brett Anderson will be making just his second start of the season for the A’s.  Anderson is 7-23 (-15.5 units) in his career as an underdog of +100 to +150.  The Astros are 21-8 in the last 29 meetings.  Houston is 10-4 in Keuchel’s last 14 starts against Oakland.  Take the Astros Monday. 

20* Raptors/Cavs TNT No-Brainer on Toronto +5.5 

The Cavaliers may be up 3-0 in this series, but two games were toss-ups decided by a combined 3 points.  I don’t think there’s as much separation between these teams as this 3-0 lead would indicate.  And I think there’s value with the Raptors as 5.5-point underdogs in Game 4 tonight because of it. 

You look at the adjustments in the line from Game 1 until now and it’s easy to see that there’s value with the Raptors.  They went from being 7-point home favorites in both Game 1 and Game 2 to 5.5-point underdogs in Game 4.  That’s a 12.5-point adjustment and simply too much. 

The Raptors know that not only their season and pride are on the line, but their future as well.  Dwane Casey, DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry could all have their jobs on the line with the Raptors.  Another playoff failure against the Cavaliers and they might just blow it all up.  So they won’t be going down without a fight in Game 4. 

Toronto is 12-2 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  Cleveland is 11-30 ATS as a home favorite this season.  The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Raptors Monday. 

20* Rockets/Jazz TNT No-Brainer on Utah +5.5 

The Utah Jazz will respond in a big way after getting embarrassed at home by the Houston Rockets 92-113 in Game 3.  They shot just 41.7% from the field and it was over by halftime.  They know their home fans deserve a better effort than that. 

The Jazz could get Ricky Rubio back in the lineup from a hamstring injury.  He has been upgraded to questionable and will likely be a game-time decision after missing the first three games in this series.  They proved they could win without him with their 116-108 road win in Game 2 as 10.5-point underdogs, but of course they’d rather have him back. 

Plays against road favorites (Houston) after having covered four of their last five against the spread, a top team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 72-39 (64.9%) ATS since 1996. 

The Jazz are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss by more than 10 points.  The Jazz are 6-2 ATS in their last eight Sunday games.  The Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games.  Mike D’Antoni is 11-23 ATS after leading their previous game by 15 or more points at the half as the coach of Houston.  Bet the Jazz Sunday. 

15* Cubs/Cardinals ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -104 

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost four straight coming in and are in jeopardy of getting swept by the rival Cardinals.  They blew a 4-0 lead yesterday and a 6-4 lead in the 9th inning, which only adds to their motivation. 

The Cubs should get back on the winning track Sunday behind Jon Lester.  The left-hander has gone 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA in six starts this season.  Lester owns the Cardinals, going 8-5 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in 18 career starts against them. 

Michael Wacha has been decent this year at 4-1 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in six starts.  But the Cubs have owned him.  Wacha is 4-8 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.518 WHIP in 15 career starts against Chicago. 

The Cubs are 19-5 in their last 24 road games off a loss by two runs or less.  Chicago is 40-19 in Lester’s last 59 starts overall.  The Cubs are 6-0 in Lester’s last six starts vs. NL Central opponents.  The Cardinals are 1-7 in Wacha’s last eight starts during Game 3 of a series.  Take the Cubs Sunday. 

15* MLB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on Oakland A’s -132 

The Oakland A’s are a much better team than they get credit for.  They are off to a 16-16 start this season, and they clearly have the advantage on the mound tonight over the reeling Baltimore Orioles.  The Orioles are just 8-24 this season and stuck in free-fall mode right now. 

Trevor Cahill gets the ball tonight for the A’s.  He has gone 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three starts this season with 19 K’s in 18 innings.  Cahill is 3-1 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore. 

Kevin Gausman is 2-2 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.327 WHIP in six starts this season for Baltimore.  Gausman has gone 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in three career starts against Oakland. 

Baltimore is 4-24 in road games against a starting pitched that walks 1.75 or fewer batters per start over the last two seasons.  The Orioles are 1-11 in their last 12 Saturday games.  Baltimore is 12-43 in its last 55 games overall.  The Orioles are 16-33 in Gausman’s last 49 road starts.  The A’s are 6-1 in their last seven home games.  Take the A’s Saturday.

My 2018 Kentucky Derby Picks:

Win: No. 11 Bolt d'Oro (8/1)

Price, performance and pedigree lead me to believe that Bolt d'Oro will be your 2018 Kentucky Derby winner.  He has four wins in six starts, including a pair of Grade 1 victories.  He placed a game second to Derby favorite Justify in the Santa Anita Derby.

Bolt d'Oro's sire, Medaglia d'Oro, delivered seven Grade 1 winners in 2017.  His broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes in 1992.  He has one of the top Beyer Speed Figures (103) in the field.

Bolt d'Oro finished the final three-eighths of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby in less than 38 seconds, showing that he has plenty left in the tank for the 1 1/4 mile Derby.  If he gets in a duel with Justify again, I like his chances down the stretch.

Place: No. 6 Good Magic (12/1)

Good Magic was a champion 2-year old that has steadily improved with each start.  I expect him to take another step forward in the Derby Saturday.  After a disappointing seasonal debut, he came back with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.

Good Magic has the perfect running style for the Derby.  He is a stalker that likes to sit just off the pace, and that is the style that usually wins this race.  He'll be able to follow Justify out of the 7th post and stalk him.

Underrated trainer Chad Brown has been oozing with confidence over this horse.  Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing last year, and Practical Joke came in a solid fifth in the Kentucky Derby.  Brown is a Top 5 trainer nationally, has won 10 Breeders' Cup races, and an Eclipse award as top trainer.

The son of Curlin, Good Magic has a great pedigree.  Curlin finished a disappointing 3rd in the Derby, but went on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup to become one of the all-time greats.  He's already sired a Belmont and Preakness winner, and Exaggerator was second in the Derby.  Good Magic's damsire, Hard Spun, finished one spot ahead of Curlin in the Derby and two spots behind him in the Preakness.  The bloodline couldn't be much better for this horse.

Show:  No. 7 Justify (3/1)

History and inexperience are the only reasons I am not picking Justify to win.  No horse that failed to race as a 2-year old has won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo in 1882.  That's an 0-for-61 stretch, and something that cannot be overlooked.

But what also can't be overlooked is how Justify has won all three of his races as a 3-year-old in impressive fashion.  He has won the three by a combined 19 lengths.  He finished strong in the Santa Anita Derby to hold off favorite Bolt d'Oro, which I believe to be the best horse in the field.

Another reason to like Justify's chances is the post draw.  He drew the No. 7 post, and based on the racing styles of the horses closest to him, he's going to have an easy path to where he wants to get to.  Justify is a stalker that prefers to be toward the front and then make his move around the final turn.  He'll be able to move in right behind likely pacesetters Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway, who start from the 3rd and 4th posts, respectively.

Exacta Pick: 6, 7, 11 Exacta Box

Trifecta Pick:5, 6, 7, 11 Trifecta Box

Note: I'm throwing in No. 5 Audible in my Trifecta Box as I believe he's the 4th-best horse in the field and the most likely to hit the board if one of my top three picks falter.  Feel free to use these four horses in a Superfecta Box as well.

20* Raptors/Cavs ABC No-Brainer on Toronto +5 

The Toronto Raptors aren’t done yet.  Most have written them off after losing the first two games of this series at home.  But I strongly believe they still have some fight left in them for Game 3 to try and redeem themselves. 

They let the Cavs off the hook in Game 1 by going 0-for-12 down the stretch.  They never trailed one time in regulation and then lost in overtime.  Then Kevin Love had his best game of the playoffs in Game 2, which came out of nowhere because he had been playing terrible.  The Cavs shot 59.5% as a team in Game 2, which isn’t going to happen again. 

Look for the Raptors to show some pride here in Game 3.  They are a much better team than they’ve shown up to this point, and I still think they are better than the Cavs.  They have only forced eight turnovers this entire series, and that’s unacceptable.  Their defensive effort will be the best it has been in any game this series in Game 3 to try and make up for it. 

Toronto is 11-2 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  Cleveland is 11-29 ATS as a home favorite this season.  The Cavaliers are 16-38-1 ATS in their last 55 home games overall.  Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Raptors Saturday.

My 2018 Kentucky Derby Picks:

Win: No. 11 Bolt d'Oro (8/1)

Price, performance and pedigree lead me to believe that Bolt d'Oro will be your 2018 Kentucky Derby winner.  He has four wins in six starts, including a pair of Grade 1 victories.  He placed a game second to Derby favorite Justify in the Santa Anita Derby.

Bolt d'Oro's sire, Medaglia d'Oro, delivered seven Grade 1 winners in 2017.  His broodmare sire, A.P. Indy, won the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes in 1992.  He has one of the top Beyer Speed Figures (103) in the field.

Bolt d'Oro finished the final three-eighths of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby in less than 38 seconds, showing that he has plenty left in the tank for the 1 1/4 mile Derby.  If he gets in a duel with Justify again, I like his chances down the stretch.

Place: No. 6 Good Magic (12/1)

Good Magic was a champion 2-year old that has steadily improved with each start.  I expect him to take another step forward in the Derby Saturday.  After a disappointing seasonal debut, he came back with an impressive win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes.

Good Magic has the perfect running style for the Derby.  He is a stalker that likes to sit just off the pace, and that is the style that usually wins this race.  He'll be able to follow Justify out of the 7th post and stalk him.

Underrated trainer Chad Brown has been oozing with confidence over this horse.  Brown won the Preakness with Cloud Computing last year, and Practical Joke came in a solid fifth in the Kentucky Derby.  Brown is a Top 5 trainer nationally, has won 10 Breeders' Cup races, and an Eclipse award as top trainer.

The son of Curlin, Good Magic has a great pedigree.  Curlin finished a disappointing 3rd in the Derby, but went on to win the Breeders' Cup Classic and Dubai World Cup to become one of the all-time greats.  He's already sired a Belmont and Preakness winner, and Exaggerator was second in the Derby.  Good Magic's damsire, Hard Spun, finished one spot ahead of Curlin in the Derby and two spots behind him in the Preakness.  The bloodline couldn't be much better for this horse.

Show:  No. 7 Justify (3/1)

History and inexperience are the only reasons I am not picking Justify to win.  No horse that failed to race as a 2-year old has won the Kentucky Derby since Apollo in 1882.  That's an 0-for-61 stretch, and something that cannot be overlooked.

But what also can't be overlooked is how Justify has won all three of his races as a 3-year-old in impressive fashion.  He has won the three by a combined 19 lengths.  He finished strong in the Santa Anita Derby to hold off favorite Bolt d'Oro, which I believe to be the best horse in the field.

Another reason to like Justify's chances is the post draw.  He drew the No. 7 post, and based on the racing styles of the horses closest to him, he's going to have an easy path to where he wants to get to.  Justify is a stalker that prefers to be toward the front and then make his move around the final turn.  He'll be able to move in right behind likely pacesetters Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway, who start from the 3rd and 4th posts, respectively.

Exacta Pick: 6, 7, 11 Exacta Box

Trifecta Pick:5, 6, 7, 11 Trifecta Box

Note: I'm throwing in No. 5 Audible in my Trifecta Box as I believe he's the 4th-best horse in the field and the most likely to hit the board if one of my top three picks falter.  Feel free to use these four horses in a Superfecta Box as well.

20* Rockets/Jazz ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -4.5 

After a terrible performance in Game 2 with an upset loss to the Jazz as 10.5-point home favorites, I fully expect the Houston Rockets to come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 3.  Look for them to bury the Jazz tonight. 

The Rockets shot 40% from the field and 27% from 3-point range in Game 2.  That’s not going to happen again.  Meanwhile, the Jazz shot 51.8% from the field and 46.9% (15-of-32) from 3-point range in Game 2.  That’s also unlikely to happen again. 

It was a rare win for the Jazz in this series.  The Rockets are now 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their six meetings with the Jazz this season.  All five wins came by 11 points or more as well. 

Houston is 14-3 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive overs over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Bet the Rockets Friday. 

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Rangers OVER 9 

The Rangers and Red Sox combined for 16 runs yesterday in an 11-5 home victory for Texas.  I fully expect another slugfest tonight with Rick Porcello and Bartolo Colon getting lit up by two hot lineups.  The Red Sox are scoring 5.6 runs per game this season, while the Rangers have scored 5 or more runs in five of their last seven games overall. 

Porcello is off to a solid start this season, but now he’s up against a lineup that has given him fits throughout his career.  Indeed, Porcello is 6-4 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in 12 career starts against Texas. 

Bartolo Colon is somehow still in the big leagues.  He has gotten by this season through his first four starts, but it’s only a matter of time before he gets lit up.  And I predict that will be tonight by this potent Boston lineup. 

Boston is 8-0 OVER when revenging a blowout road loss vs. opponent of 6 runs or more over the last two seasons.  Colon is 10-2 OVER when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest over the last two seasons.  Texas is 40-17 OVER in its last 57 games after a combined score of 12 runs or more in four straight games.  The OVER is 6-0-1 in Rangers last seven games overall.  Take the OVER in this game Friday. 

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -138 

The Boston Red Sox are off to one of their best starts in franchise history at 22-8.  They are blistering the ball offensively with 5.7 runs per game.  Now they’ll be up against the 12-20 Texas Rangers, who are scoring just 3.9 runs per game this season. 

David Price is off to a solid start this season at 2-3 with a 3.78 ERA in six starts, including 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA in three road starts.  Price has allowed just 3 earned runs in 14 innings while striking out 19 in his last two starts against the Rangers. 

Mike Minor is 2-1 with a 4.33 ERA in five starts this season for the Rangers.  But he’s 1-0 with a 5.51 ERA in his last three starts.  He was rocked by both Toronto and Houston in recent starts, and now he’s up against arguably the best lineup he’s faced yet in Boston. 

The Rangers’ bullpen is gassed as well.  Texas is 3-16 off a two-game stretch where the bullpen threw 9 innings or more over the last two seasons.  The Red Sox are 38-13 in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The Rangers are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter.  Texas is 3-13 in its last 16 during Game 1 of a series.  The Rangers are 6-20 in their last 26 home games.  Take the Red Sox Thursday. 

25* NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs GAME OF THE YEAR on Toronto Raptors -6.5 

The Cleveland Cavaliers became just the 2nd team in the last 20 years to win a playoff game while not leading once during regulation.  It was a complete fluke.  The Raptors feel they let them off the hook, and they’ll come back highly motivated in Game 2 to square this series. 

I think the Cavaliers feel they’re just happy for a split in Toronto and won’t be giving the kind of effort they did in Game 1.  They weren’t as fatigued as I expected them to be, but they will start to feel it in the coming games after having to go 7 games to defeat the Pacers. 

It was a rare home loss for the Raptors, who are 37-8 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 10.1 points per game.  Cleveland is just 6-16 ATS off a road win this season.  The Cavs are also 15-29 ATS after playing a road game this year. 

Plays on any team (Toronto) - revenging a loss as a favorite against opponent that’s off a road win by 3 points or less are 52-24 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Raptors in Game 2 Thursday. 

20* Jazz/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Utah +11 

The Utah Jazz know that if they are going to have any chance in this series, they are going to have to steal one in Houston.  The Rockets have owned them this season, and I think they say enough is enough this game. 

They lost by 14 in Game 1, but there’s reason to believe they can improve on that significantly.  The Jazz shot just 31.8% from 3-point range and 59.1% from the free throw line while committing 18 turnovers.  They should be able to improve on all three of those numbers, which will help them stay within 11 here. 

The Rockets shot lights out in Game 1 from 3-point range.  They made 17-of-32 (53.1%) of their attempts, which was the difference.  They also shot 79.2% from the free throw line.  It’s hard to envision the Rockets shooting that well from distance again in Game 2. 

Mike D’Antoni is 1-10 ATS off three consecutive covers as a favorite as the coach of Houston.  The Rockets are only winning by 2.0 points per game on average this spot.  Houston is 1-9 ATS in home games off three consecutive covers as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Bet the Jazz in Game 2 Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+110) 

The Philadelphia Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday.  They have lost four straight coming in with their last win coming behind Aaron Nola in a 7-3 victory over Atlanta.  Well, their ace gets the ball again tonight. 

Nola has been lights out since the second half of last season.  Nola is 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in six starts this season.  He gave up just one earned run in 7 innings while striking out 11 in his last start against Miami, an 8-1 Phillies’ victory. 

Jose Urena is still in search of his first win of the season for the Marlins.  He is 0-4 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in six starts this season.  The Marlins have gone 0-6 in those six starts.  Urena is 1-2 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in five career starts against Philadelphia. 

The Phillies are 8-1 in their last nine games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Philadelphia is 4-0 in its last four games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Marlins are 0-8 in Urena’s last eight starts.  Miami is 1-10 in Urena’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Phillies on the Run Line Wednesday. 

15* Pelicans/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on New Orleans +11 

The New Orleans Pelicans got embarrassed in Game 1 in a 101-123 loss at Golden State.  The Warriors shot 48.4% for the game and 40.7% from the 3-point line, while the Pelicans shot just 43.7% for the game and 32% from 3-point range. 

Look for the Pelicans to come back highly motivated for a win in Game 2.  They know they are going to have to steal one in Golden State if they want to make this a series.  And this would be the time to do it with Stephen Curry returning for the Warriors.  They are getting too much respect for his return, but he won’t be sharp as he hasn’t played since late March. 

The Pelicans are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  It was probably a good thing that they took a humbling defeat in Game 1 to refocus, because they were probably getting overconfident after their 9-game winning streak and sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers in the first round. 

The Warriors are 8-25 in their last 33 games after attempting 20 or more free throws than their opponent.  The Warriors shot 32 while the Pelicans shot just 11 in Game 1.  There won’t be that big of a gap in Game 2.  Golden State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win.  Take the Pelicans in Game 2 Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-110) 

The St. Louis Cardinals come into this series with the Chicago White Sox highly motivated for a victory.  They were just swept in a 3-game set in Pittsburgh over the weekend.  Now they get to host the 8-18 Chicago White Sox to get back on track. 

Michael Wacha has pitched well this season, going 4-1 with a 3.62 ERA in five starts, including 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA in three home starts.  Wacha won his only career start against the White Sox back in 2015. 

James Shields somehow manages to keep a spot in Chicago’s rotation despite being awful.  Shields is 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in five starts this season.  He is also 0-1 with an 8.74 ERA and 2.383 WHIP in two career starts against St. Louis. 

The White Sox are 25-54 in their last 79 road games.  Chicago is 2-11 in its last 13 interleague road games.  The White Sox are 0-5 in Shields’ last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 6-0 in Wacha’s last six starts vs. AL Central opponents.  St. Louis is 38-14 in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday. 

20* Cavs/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Toronto -6.5 

Cleveland needed a super-human performance from Lebron James just to get by the Indiana Pacers in seven games.  He averaged over 45 points per game in their four wins, yet they won those games by just 3, 4, 3 and 4 points.  It’s a sign of things to come for the Cavaliers in this series. 

Toronto is the most complete team in the Eastern Conference, and that showed in the regular season.  They go 10-plus deep and have been much better this season with a change in philosophy.  They are looking to push the tempo more and shoot more 3-pointers.  They average 111.5 points per game this season. 

The Raptors are 37-7 at home this season.  They are outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per game on their home floor.  It will be a raucous atmosphere tonight in Toronto.  The Cavs are tired as they just had to play on Sunday and only get one day to get ready for Toronto.  Lebron admitted he was extremely tired in his press conference after the game Sunday.  The Raptors, who have had three days off in between games, will be the fresher, more motivated team in Game 1. 

Plays against underdogs (Cleveland) - as the No. 4 seed in the playoffs, in the 1st game of a playoff series are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS since 1996.  The Cavaliers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Raptors are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six home games.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet the Raptors in Game 1 Tuesday. 

20* 76ers/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -3.5 

The Philadelphia 76ers are rested and ready to go following an impressive 4-1 win over Miami in the opening round.  They won three of the four games by double-digits.  They haven’t played since April 24th and will be the fresher team here. 

The same cannot be said for the Celtics, who were pushed to the brink of elimination.  They needed to win Game 7 against the Bucks just to advance.  And they played Game 7 on Saturday, so they have only had one day to get rested and ready for the 76ers. 

That’s not enough given the current state of the Celtics.  Injuries have taken their toll all season, and another one popped up in Game 7.  Jaylen Brown suffered a hamstring injury that forced him to leave the game.  Now Brown is doubtful for Game 1 Monday. 

The 76ers are 27-12 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Boston.  Bet the 76ers in Game 1 Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -107 

The Washington Nationals are being undervalued heading into Game 1 of this series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.  They have lost six of their last eight overall.  Conversely, the Pirates are being overvalued due to entering this series on a five-game winning streak.  Now we’re getting the Nationals at basically even money at home tonight. 

And Washington has the clear advantage on the mound in this one.  Tanner Roark has been one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues over the last three seasons.  He is 1-2 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in five starts this year. 

Jameson Taillon is getting too much respect from the books right now.  He is 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in two road starts.  Taillon is 0-2 with a 20.30 ERA in his last two starts, giving up 12 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. 

Pittsburgh is 2-12 in road games after allowing 3 runs or less in two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 2-11 off two straight wins by 4 runs or more over the last three years.  The Nationals are 10-2 in their last 12 Monday games.  Washington is 4-0 in Roark’s last four starts during Game 1 of a series.  Take the Nationals Monday. 

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -116 

The Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a win here Sunday.  They have lost six of their last seven coming in, including the first two games of this series by exactly one run each to the Diamondbacks.  They’ll be motivated for revenge and to avoid the dreaded sweep at home here. 

Robbie Ray has been vulnerable this season for the Diamondbacks.  He is 2-0 in spite of a 5.13 ERA and 1.557 WHIP.  Ray has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-4 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in four career starts against them. 

Gio Gonzalez has been great thus far, going 2-2 with a 3.04 ERA in five starts, including 0-1 with a 2.61 ERA in two home starts.  Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 3.23 ERA in seven career starts against Arizona. 

The Nationals are 13-3 in their last 16 after losing the first two games of a series.  Washington is 17-7 in Gonzalez’s last 24 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Nationals Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Colorado Rockies -107 

We are once again getting the Colorado Rockies at basically even money against arguably the worst team in baseball in the Miami Marlins, who are 8-18 this season and getting outscored 3.3 to 5.3 on average.  We’ll take advantage again Sunday. 

Chad Bettis has been superb up to this point.  He has gone 3-0 with a 2.40 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in five starts, including 3-0 with a 1.40 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in three road starts. 

Caleb Smith is still in search of his first win for the Marlins.  He is 0-3 with a 5.82 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in five starts this season. 

The Rockies are 13-3 in Bettis’ last 16 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Colorado is 8-1 in Bettis’ last nine Sunday starts.  The Marlins are 2-8 in their last 10 home games.  Miami is 0-4 in Smith’s last four starts.  Take the Rockies Sunday. 

20* Pacers/Cavs Game 7 No-Brainer on UNDER 200 

The UNDER is 5-1 in the six games in this series thus far.  The lone exception was Game 6 as Indiana shot lights out and they combined for 208 points.  The Pacers shot 56.3% from the field and 15-of-30 from 3-point range.  That’s not going to happen again. 

The other five games saw 178, 197, 182, 204 and 193 combined points.  Now we have a 200-point total for Game 7 with everything on the line.  Defensive intensity will be at an all-time high, and this game will slow down to a snail’s pace.  That’s why I really like the UNDER in this Game 7 today. 

Indiana is 12-1 UNDER after scoring 120 points or more this season.  The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Pacers last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 35-16-1 in Pacers last 52 games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Cavs last four home games.  The UNDER is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings, including 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Cleveland.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. 

20* Bucks/Celtics TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 195.5 

As this series has progressed and these teams have gotten more familiar with one another, points have been harder and harder to come by.  The tempo has also slowed down dramatically.  That won’t change in this decisive Game 7 with everything on the line. 

Boston beat Milwaukee 92-87 for 179 combined points in Game 5.  Milwaukee returned the favor with a 97-86 home victory in Game 6 and only 183 combined points.  Now we have a total set of 195.5 for Game 7, which is much higher than those two results.  I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in this game tonight. 

I think it’s no coincidence that these last two games have been so low scoring with the return of Marcus Smart from injury.  He is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, and he also tends to hold the ball on offense.  Bet the UNDER in Game 7 Saturday. 

15* Thunder/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207.5 

As a series goes on and teams become more familiar with one another, points become harder to come by. I expect that to be the case in this all-important Game 6 here tonight.  Both teams will struggle to even reach 100 points in this one with what’s at stake. 

The UNDER is now 6-3 in the nine meetings between the Thunder and Jazz this season.  They have averaged just 200.1 combined points per game in those nine meetings.  So we’re getting at least 7 points of value with the UNDER based on their head-to-head season averages. 

And it’s worth noting that in Game 5 Rudy Gobert got in foul trouble and missed most of the second half.  The Thunder were stuck on 46 points with 8:00 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, but finished with a fully and a 107-99 win.  That was almost all due to Gobert’s absence.  Look for him to be smarter about staying out of foul trouble and to play his normal minutes in this one, which will certainly help the UNDER since he’s arguably the most important defender in the league. 

Oklahoma City is 17-5 UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  The Thunder are 9-1 UNDER after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half over the last two years.  The UNDER is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings, including 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Utah.  Take the UNDER in Game 6 Friday. 

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -122 

Almost any time I can fade the Miami Marlins at this kind of price I’m going to take advantage.  The Colorado Rockies are by far the superior team here and should be more than a -122 favorite over the 7-17 Marlins, who are arguably the worst team in baseball. 

Tyler Anderson has pitched pretty well for the Rockies this season, going 1-0 with a 4.32 ERA in five starts.  Anderson has owned the Marlins, going 1-1 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.710 WHIP in two career starts against them. 

Jose Urena is off to a rough start this year for the Marlins.  He is 0-3 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in five starts, and the Marlins are 0-5 in those games.  Urena is 1-1 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in four career starts against Colorado. 

The Rockies are 7-2 in their last nine road games.  The Marlins are 1-7 in their last eight home games.  Miami is 0-7 in Urena’s last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Urena is 1-10 (-10.7 units) against the money line in home games when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest in his career.  Roll with the Rockies Friday. 

25* NBA 1st Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Raptors/Wizards UNDER 214.5 

After going over the total in each of the first three games in this series, the Raptors and Wizards have gone under the total in the last two.  This goes right along with my theory that the more familiar teams become with one another, the harder it is to score points. 

That has been the case in Games 4 and 5 of this series.  They combined for 204 points in Game 4 and 206 points in Game 5.  Now they have the total set at 214.5 for Game 6, which is still higher than the 213.5-point total they had for Games 1 and 2.  So I think there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in Game 6 tonight. 

Toronto is 15-5 UNDER in April road games over the last three seasons.  Washington is 15-7 UNDER off two or more consecutive unders this season.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Wizards last 14 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Bet the UNDER in Game 6 Friday. 

20* Celtics/Bucks TNT No-Brainer on Milwaukee -4 

I think the fact that the Celtics have gone 4-1 ATS thus far in this series has them overvalued.  But they barely covered in three of the four games where they were victorious against the spread.  I think the value is now with the Bucks at home as only 4-point favorites in this matchup. 

The Bucks are in a must-win situation here trying to force a Game 7.  It’s safe to say that they will be laying it all on the line tonight.  They have played very well in their two home games in this series.  They won Game 3 116-92 and then led 51-35 at halftime of Game 4 before the Celtics came out of nowhere to score 67 points in the second half.  That’s unlikely to happen again. 

It’s also unlikely that the Bucks are going to shoot as poorly as they did in Game 5.  They shot just 36.8% in that contest, yet still only lost 87-92 as 4.5-point underdogs.  They had shot 59.7%, 57% and 52.1% in their three previous games and should get back to torching this undersized Celtics’ defense. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the five games thus far.  That trend continues here as Milwaukee forces a Game 7.  Bet the Bucks Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Atlanta Braves -130

The Atlanta Braves don’t want the embarrassment of handing the Reds their first series victory of the season.  The Reds won the first two games of this series, but the Braves won yesterday and have a chance to split here.  They should get a win against 5-19 Cincinnati here in Game 4 this afternoon. 

Sean Newcomb has been solid this season at 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA and 27 K’s in 21 2/3 innings.  He has been his best on the road with a 1.59 ERA in two starts with 16 K’s in 11 1/3 innings.  Newcomb pitched 5 shutout innings in an 8-1 home victory over the Reds in his lone career start against them last season. 

Homer Bailey is still in search of his first victory this season, going 0-3 with a 3.68 ERA.  The Reds have gone 0-5 in his five starts.  Bailey is 2-2 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.402 WHIP in six career starts against Atlanta. 

The Reds are 3-14 in their last 17 home games.  Cincinnati is 19-47 in its last 66 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Reds are 2-10 in Bailey’s last 12 home starts.  Cincinnati is 2-12 in Bailey’s last 14 starts vs. NL East opponents.  Take the Braves Thursday. 

25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 

With their season on the line tonight, the Oklahoma City Thunder should respond in a big way at home in Game 5.  Look for them to easily cover this generous 3.5-point spread as they are now clearly undervalued after losing the last three games to the Jazz. 

The Thunder are 15-1 SU in their last 16 home meetings with the Jazz.  They have won these games by an average of 13.1 points per game.  This is certainly a trend I want to get behind tonight given the circumstances. 

The home team is 21-9 ATS in the last 30 meetings.  The Jazz are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Oklahoma City.  Bet the Thunder in Game 5 Wednesday. 

15* Wizards/Raptors NBA TV No-Brainer on Toronto -7 

After losing both games in Washington, the Toronto Raptors will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 5 tonight at home.  They want to prove their naysayers wrong that this is a different team and one ready to make the NBA Finals. 

The Raptors are 36-7 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 10.4 points per game.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with the only exception being a 102-95 Toronto win in Washington in their final regular season meeting this year. 

Toronto is 13-3 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last three seasons.  The Wizards are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.  The Raptors are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Take the Raptors in Game 5 Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves +100

After losing the first two games of this series to the lowly Cincinnati Reds, the Atlanta Braves will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight.  The Reds are just 5-18 this season, and those were their first two consecutive wins all season. 

Matt Wisler was great in his first and only start this season.  He gave up just one earned run and two base runners in 7 innings while striking out 8 batters in a 12-4 victory over the Mets.  He now holds a 1.29 ERA and 0.286 WHIP in his lone start. 

Brandon Finnegan has been knocked around in his two starts for Cincinnati.  He has gone 0-2 with an 11.05 ERA and 2.592 WHIP, giving up 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 7 1/3 innings. 

The Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 games following a loss.  Atlanta is 6-0 in its last six during Game 3 of a series.  The Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 home games.  Cincinnati is 5-22 in its last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Roll with the Braves Wednesday. 

20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +10.5 

The Miami Heat let a golden opportunity slip by in Game 4 as they were trying to tie this series.  They shot just 13-of-25 (52%) from the free throw line, which was the difference in their 102-106 loss.  They know they can play with this team, and they will be laying it all on the line in Game 5 to keep their season alive. 

Miami is 16-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  The Heat are 8-1 ATS in road games after having lost four or five of their last six games this season.  Miami is 11-3 ATS off two or more consecutive losses this season.  The Heat are 22-7 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS losses over the last two years. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Miami) - poor foul drawing team attempting 21 or fewer free throws per game, when playing on Tuesday nights are 49-19 (72.1%) ATS since 1996.  Miami is 19-9-2 ATS in its last 30 road games.  Bet the Heat in Game 5 Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -117 

The Cincinnati Reds picked up a rare win over the Braves yesterday.  Still, the Reds are just 4-18 on the season, and don’t expect them to be winning two games in a row for the first time in 2018 tonight. 

Brandon McCarthy has pitched great when healthy over the last few seasons.  He is healthy this season and is 3-0 with a 2.91 ERA in four starts this year.  Look for McCarthy to shut down this weak Reds lineup that is hitting just .224 and scoring 3.2 runs per game this season. 

Tyler Mahle has been one of the many disappointing starters for Cincinnati this year.  He is 1-3 with a 5.14 ERA and 1.571 WHIP through four starts.  He’ll be up against an Atlanta lineup that is hitting .263 and scoring 5.5 runs per game this season. 

Atlanta is 9-1 in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs over the last two seasons.  Cincinnati is 2-13 in its last 15 games overall.  The Reds are 1-12 after having lost six or seven of their last eight games this season.  Take the Braves Tuesday. 

20* Rockets/Timberwolves TNT No-Brainer on Minnesota +6 

I’ve rode Minnesota in every game this series and I’m going to continue to do so tonight.  I came into the playoffs believing that the Timberwolves were the most underrated 8th seed of all-time, and the Rockets were overrated for what they did in the regular season.  And so far that has panned out. 

The Timberwolves have gone toe-to-toe with the Rockets, only getting outscored by 7 points total in their first three games despite playing two of the first three in Houston.  This is simply a different team with a healthy Jimmy Butler, and an 8th seed that no No. 1 seed would ever want to have to face. 

The Timberwolves responded in a big way with a 121-105 victory in Game 3.  They have rabid home fans who have been starving for a playoff game for more than a decade.  It will be another raucous atmosphere tonight in Minneapolis as the Timberwolves likely square this series 2-2, though we’ll take the 6 points for some added insurance. 

The Rockets are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. Western Conference opponents.  Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five road games.  Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 4 Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -128 

The Atlanta Braves are one of the more underrated teams in baseball this season.  They are among the National League leaders in runs scored as they average 5.5 per game.  Cincinnati is right there with Miami and the Chicago White Sox as the worst teams in baseball.  The Reds are 3-18 this season, hitting just .220 as a team and scoring 2.9 runs per game. 

The Braves have a massive advantage on the mound tonight and should be favored by more as a result.  Mike Foltynewicz is 1-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 1.266 WHIP in four starts with 26 K’s in 21 1/3 innings.  Folty is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.232 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati as well. 

Sal Romano is one of the many terrible starters in Cincinnati’s rotation.  He has gone 0-2 with a 5.31 ERA and 1.525 WHIP in four starts this season.  He has struck out just 11 batters in 20 1/3 innings.  He is no match for Folty tonight. 

The Reds are 1-11 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Cincinnati is 1-5 in Romano’s last six starts.  The Red are 1-13 in their last 14 games overall.  Take the Braves Monday. 

20* Cavs/Pacers TNT No-Brainer on Cleveland +1 

After choking away a huge lead in the 2nd half of Game 3, the Cleveland Cavaliers will come back with a chip on their shoulder in Game 4.  This is a must-win game for them and I expect them to respond as so. 

I trust Lebron James in this situation more than any other player in the NBA.  Of course, he will have to get some help from his teammates, which has been lacking thus far in the series.  Look for the role players to step up and follow his lead. 

Indiana is a young team that’s not ready for the spotlight just yet.  They have answered the bell in the first three games, but now the pressure intensifies.  I don’t trust them in this situation. 

Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Indiana) - off a close win by 3 points or less against opponent that’s off a loss by 6 points or less are 45-21 (68.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Cavaliers in Game 4 Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +126 

I love the situation here for the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday.  They have lost each of the first three games of this series to the Phillies and will be highly motivated to avoid the dreaded four-game sweep with a win. 

Of course, it doesn’t hurt that they send Trevor Williams to the mound, and he has been lights out this season.  Williams is 3-1 with a 1.93 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in four starts this year.  He has faced the Cubs and Rockies in his last two starts, so it’s not like he is doing it against weak lineups. 

Nick Pivetta’s numbers have been good this year, but he is doing it against weak competition.  His four starts have come against the Braves (twice), Marlins and Reds. 

Pittsburgh is 8-1 (+8.2 units) against the money line in day games this season.  The Pirates are 6-0 in their last six Sunday games.  Pittsburgh is 4-1 in Williams’ last five starts.  Roll with the Pirates Sunday. 

15* Celtics/Bucks ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -4.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks are clearly the more talented team right now due to all of the injuries for Boston.  That talent shined through in Game 3, and it will once again in Game 4 today. 

The Celtics simply wanted it more in the first two games in this series.  It also helped that they shot nearly 60% in Game 2.  But as this series goes on, I think their deficiencies will start to show as there is more than a crack or two in their foundation. 

I like the resiliency the Bucks showed in Game 3 with their 116-92 blowout victory.  They will come out like gangbusters once again in Game 4 with their backs still against the wall here down in this series.  And I think this 4.5-point spread is very generous given that they are the better team right now and playing at home. 

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Boston) - revenging a blowout road loss by 20 points or more against opponent off a home win scoring 110 or more points are 33-10 (76.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Bucks in Game 4 Sunday. 

15* Thunder/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207 

This has been an UNDER series between the Jazz and Thunder.  I think the books have set the bar too high in this Game 3.  As the series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another, and that certainly favors defense. 

The UNDER is 5-1 in the six meetings between Utah and Oklahoma City this season.  Game 1 was clearly the aberration as they combined for 224 points.  But the other five meetings saw 197, 192, 186, 194 and 183 combined points.  That’s an average of 196.0 combined points per game, which is roughly 11 points less than tonight’s posted total of 207, showing that there is a ton of value with the UNDER. 

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Utah) - in the 3rd game of a playoff series are 56-26 (68.3%) since 1996.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (Oklahoma City) - after having won five or six of their last seven games, extremely well-rested team playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 73-33 (68%) over the last five seasons. 

Oklahoma City is 27-11 UNDER as a road underdog over the last two seasons.  The Thunder are 11-3 UNDER off a home loss this season.  The Jazz are 8-1 UNDER in home games when playing with two days’ rest this season.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday. 

20* Rockets/Timberwolves ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +4.5 

Minnesota fans will be raucous as they’ve waited a long time for a home playoff game.  Look for the Timberwolves to respond in a big way and get right back in this series with a big Game 3 win at home tonight. 

Minnesota played well in a 101-104 Game 1 loss as 11.5-point underdogs.  But they couldn’t make anything in Game 2 and lost 82-102.  They also turned the ball over 16 games and shot just 27.8% from 3-point range.  It’s safe to say they will play much better here tonight. 

I think this is the game where the Timberwolves say enough is enough.  The Rockets have had their number over the past two seasons, winning eight straight meetings coming in.  Look for them to relax enough after taking a 2-0 lead that the Timberwolves will be by far the more motivated, aggressive team in Game 3. 

Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive unders this season.  It is winning by 13.8 points per game on average in this spot this year.  Take the Timberwolves Saturday. 

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +141 

The Atlanta Braves are showing great value as home underdogs to the New York Mets today.  They are sending ace Julio Teheran to the mound tonight and should not be this big of dogs. 

Teheran has given up just 3 earned runs in 12 innings over his last two starts.  Teheran loves facing the Mets, going 8-5 with a 2.34 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 19 career starts against them. 

Jacob DeGrom is a great starter, but he’s getting too much respect from oddsmakers today.  He has allowed 7 earned runs over 13 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.  He has also given up 6 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts against Atlanta. 

New York is 14-42 vs. teams who are outscoring their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season over the last two seasons.  The Braves are 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss.  Atlanta is 5-0 in Teheran’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Braves Saturday. 

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -120 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are showing great value as small home favorites over the San Diego Padres tonight.  They are getting overlooked here because Matt Koch will be making his just third major league start. 

Koch gave up just one run and five hits in six innings against the Padres in one of those two previous starts.  He pitched two scoreless innings of relief against the Cardinals on April 7th.  He is ready as he was one of the last starters optioned to Triple-A Reno out of spring training. 

Tyson Ross is getting way too much respect from the books in this one.  He missed most of the last two seasons with arm issues.  Ross hasn’t faced the Diamondbacks since 2015.  This is the best lineup he will have faced other than Houston, which he allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings against. 

The Padres are 2-7 in Ross’ last nine starts.  The Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last six home games.  Arizona is 10-3 in its last 13 home meetings with San Diego.  Take the Diamondbacks Friday. 

20* Raptors/Wizards ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Washington -1.5 

The Toronto Raptors shot lights out in their first two games at home against the Wizards in this series.  They shot 53.2% in Game 1 and 16-of-30 (53.3%) from 3-point range.  In Game 2, they shot 51.7% and 13-of-35 (37.1%) from 3-point range. 

The law of averages says that they won’t shoot that well against in Game 3.  Look for a big effort from the Wizards at home here Friday night to try and get back in this series.  They have shot it pretty well these first two games with 106 points in Game 1 and 119 points in Game 2, but it wasn’t quite enough.  They will be much better defensively at home in Game 3. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Toronto) - after going over the total by more than 30 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season are 25-8 (75.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Toronto) - hot team having covered six or seven of their last eight against the spread, with a winning record on the season are 75-39 (65.8%) ATS over the last five years.  The Raptors are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Wizards Friday. 

15* Blazers/Pelicans NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Portland +4 

The Portland Trail Blazers are extremely disappointed to be down 0-2 in this series.  They had their chances in Game 1 and Game 2, trailing by exactly 2 points in the closing seconds both games.  They shot just 37.8% in Game 1 and 45.1% in Game 2. 

I expect the Blazers to come out with a win-or-die attitude in Game 3 tonight.  They have been bashed in the media leading up to this game, especially Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  These guys already play with a chip on their shoulder and will only be extra motivated to make amends tonight. 

The Pelicans will likely relax now that they’ve stolen two games in Portland.  Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis have both been receiving huge praise in the media, as have Rajon Rondo and Nikola Mirotic.  Deservedly so, but that’s the type of exposure that will make players relax. 

Home-court advantage has meant very little in this series recently.  The road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pelicans are only 24-17 at home this year compared to 26-17 on the road.  Plays against home favorites (New Orleans) after beating the spread by 54 or more points in their last 10 games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Blazers Thursday. 

20* 76ers/Heat TNT No-Brainer on UNDER 217 

The 76ers and Heat shot lights out in Game 1 and combined for 233 points.  They set expectations for themselves that they could not live up to moving forward.  They still combined for 216 points in Game 2, but that went UNDER the 217-point total.  And now I expect an even lower-scoring Game 3 with an identical 217-point total. 

As a series goes on, teams become more familiar with one another.  That favors defense.  I also like the fact that this series is moving to Miami.  The Heat want to slow it down, while the 76ers want to play at a fast pace.  Well, the home team is the one that usually controls the pace, so expect this to be the slowest tempo of any game thus far. 

Five of the last six meetings between Miami and Philadelphia have seen 216 or fewer combined points.  Miami is 11-2 UNDER off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 12-4 in 76ers last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Heat last seven conference quarterfinals games.  The UNDER is 37-18-2 in Heat last 57 Thursday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* Cardinals/Cubs MLB Early ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -107 

After losing the first and only game in this series to the rival Cardinals 5-3, the Chicago Cubs should come back motivated for a victory here in their final game with St. Louis after Wednesday’s game was cancelled due to weather. 

Jon Lester will be up against a team that he has simply owned.  Lester is 7-5 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.003 WHIP in 17 career starts against the Cardinals. 

Luke Weaver is getting too much respect from the books due to his solid start this season.  But Weaver is up against a team he has struggled mightily against.  Weaver is 0-1 with a 12.86 ERA and 2.286 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago. 

Lester is 32-8 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage of .325 or worse over the last three seasons.  The Cubs are 37-17 in Lester’s last 54 home starts.  Chicago is 6-0 in Lester’s last six starts when working on 7 or more days’ rest.  The Cubs are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings with the Cardinals.  Chicago is 4-0 in Lester’s last four home starts vs. St. Louis.  Roll with the Cubs Thursday. 

20* Timberwolves/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +10.5 

The Minnesota Timberwolves gave the Houston Rockets all they wanted in Game 1.  They only lost 101-104 despite an awful shooting night in which they shot just 43.7% from the field compared to 47% for the Rockets. 

Playing playoff basketball down the stretch really helped the Timberwolves.  They needed to win Game No. 82 just to get in the playoffs, while the Rockets were coasting for weeks.  And having Jimmy Butler healthy down the stretch made all the difference for this team as well. 

They are now 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games, including 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS since Butler returned from injury.  Butler meant everything for this team during the regular season.  They went 39-23 with him in the lineup, and just 8-12 in the 20 games without him.  They are certainly good enough to hang with Houston at full strength, which was evident in Game 1. 

Plays against home favorites (Houston) - when leading in a playoff series, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record are 45-19 (70.3%) ATS since 1996.   

Minnesota is 22-10 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.  Houston is 9-18 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points this season.  The Rockets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Timberwolves are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Houston.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 2 Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -105 

After losing in extra innings to the Phillies yesterday, the Atlanta Braves will be out for revenge tonight.  They should get that revenge and take this series behind starter Brandon McCarthy. 

McCarthy is 2-0 with a 3.31 ERA in three starts this season.  He has been good when healthy over the last few years, but staying healthy has been the issue.  McCarthy is 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA in four career starts against Philadelphia. 

Vincent Velasquez is 1-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.369 WHIP in three starts this season for the Phillies.  His worst start came against Atlanta on March 31st when he allowed 7 runs, 4 earned, and 11 base runners in 2 2/3 innings of a 2-15 loss.  Velasquez has never beaten the Braves, going 0-2 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.395 WHIP in five career starts against them. 

The Phillies are 20-54 in their last 74 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Philadelphia is 2-9 in Velasquez’s last 11 starts when working on four days of rest.  The Braves are 7-1 in their last eight games following a loss.  Atlanta is 4-0 in its last four during Game 3 of a series.  Take the Braves Wednesday. 

15* Pelicans/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -6.5 

After losing Game 1 in heartbreaking fashion 97-95, I look for the Portland Trail Blazers to get a big win and cover in Game 2 to get right back in this series.  They cannot afford to fall down 0-2, and the Pelicans are just happy to steal one game in Portland. 

The Blazers couldn’t have shot any worse in Game 1, yet they still about won the game.  They shot just 37-of-98 (37.8%) from the field and 12-of-39 (30.8%) from 3-point range.  I suspect the game plan will be to try and get the ball inside more to Jusuf Nurkic and to attack the rim after settling for too many jumpers in Game 1. 

The Pelicans actually shot the ball well, making 47.7% from the field.  They won’t top that number, and as long as the Blazers at least match them from a percentage standpoint, they should easily cover this spread in Game 2. 

Portland is 21-4 SU & 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 home games.  The Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the league, especially in the second half of the season this year.  With their season ultimately on the line tonight, they’ll come through with a big effort.  Take the Blazers Tuesday. 

20* Wizards/Raptors NBA Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 215 

The Wizards and Raptors combined for 220 points in Game 1.  But both teams shot lights out to get there, especially the Raptors.  I look for a much lower scoring Game 2 and for this contest to stay UNDER the 215-point total. 

The Raptors shot 53.2% from the field, 53.3% from 3-point range with 16 made 3-pointers, and 80% from the line in Game 1.  The Wizards shot a solid 47.7% from the field, 38.1% from 3-point range and 88.9% from the free throw line.  At the very least, the Raptors won’t shoot as well in Game 2, and the Wizards will be hard-pressed to match their numbers. 

Eight of the previous 11 meetings in this series saw 203 or fewer combined points.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Toronto with an average combined score of just 199.2 points per game. I think we get back to seeing a more familiar combined score between these teams, one much lower than this 215-point total.  There is clearly some value with the UNDER after a high-scoring Game 1. 

Washington is 11-3 UNDER in road games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The UNDER is 5-1-1 in Wizards last six games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 10-4 in Raptors last 14 Conference Quarterfinals games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-140) 

I backed the Yankees on the Run Line yesterday in a 12-1 victory over the Miami Marlins.  I’m going to hop back on board today with the same pick.  Instead of taking the Yankees at roughly -300 on the money line, we’ll back them at -140 on the Run Line at a much more favorable price. 

The Marlins are the worst team in baseball in my opinion.  They are just 4-12 this season with 11 of those 12 losses coming by 2 runs or more.  Their lineup is atrocious, and their rotation is awful as well.  Jarlin Garcia stands little chance of being successful against this potent Yankees’ lineup tonight. 

Masahiro Tanaka should be able to shut down the Marlins.  This is by far his easiest start of the year after facing the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox in his first three starts.  He has posted a 1.039 WHIP with 18 K’s in 17 1/3 innings thus far.  Tanaka gave up just 2 earned runs in 7 innings in his lone career start against Miami for a 2.57 ERA. 

The Marlins are 18-40 in their last 58 vs. AL East opponents.  Miami is 8-25 in its last 33 interleague road games.  The Yankees are 7-0 in their last seven interleague games.  New York is 8-1 in its last nine home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Yankees are 40-17 in Tanaka’s last 57 home starts.  New York is 5-1 in its last six home meetings with Miami.  Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* Spurs/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +10 

Greg Popovich called out his players after an ugly 92-113 loss to Golden State in Game 1.  His exact words were that they looked like a ‘deer in headlights’.  Look for his players to respond with a much better effort in Game 2 tonight. 

It was a rare performance for the Spurs in which they lost most of the 50-50 balls and were out rebounded 57-40.  They also caught the Warriors on a rare good shooting night in which they shot 54.3%, while the Spurs couldn’t make anything and shot just 40.0%.  Look for those percentages to be much closer to even in Game 2 with the Spurs covering this 10-point spread. 

Plays on road underdogs (San Antonio) - after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread against opponent after having covered two of their last three against the spread are 177-113 (61%) ATS over the last five seasons. 

Golden State is 3-14 ATS when playing against a team that wins 51% to 60% of their games in the second half of the season this season.  San Antonio is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover five or six of their last seven against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Spurs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The Warriors are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games when playing on one days’ rest.  Take the Spurs in Game 2 Monday. 

20* Heat/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Miami +7 

The Miami Heat actually held a 60-56 lead over Philadelphia at halftime in Game 1.  That’s why it’s so hard to believe they lost by 27.  But the 76ers couldn’t miss in the second half and rode that momentum to a blowout victory. 

This is one of my favorite situations in the playoffs.  I like backing the team coming off the blowout loss because they will be the more motivated team.  And the 76ers aren’t going to shoot 18-of-28 (64.3%) from 3-point range again. 

That was a rare blowout victory for the 76ers in this series, too.  It was only the second time in the last 16 meetings that the 76ers have beaten the Heat by more than 7 points.  They split the season series 2-2 with the Heat’s two losses coming by 2 and 6 points. 

Miami is 26-10-2 ATS in its last 38 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last six games after scoring more than 125 points in its previous game.  Bet the Heat in Game 2 Monday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-125) 

Instead of laying -300 or more to back the Yankees on the Money Line tonight, we’ll gladly lay just -125 with them on the Run Line in hopes that they win this game by two runs or more.  I think that shouldn’t be a problem against what I believe is the worst team in baseball in the Miami Marlins. 

The Marlins are just 4-11 this season with 10 of those 11 losses coming by two runs or more.  The Yankees are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off due to weather.  Giancarlo Stanton will be excited to face his former team for the first time as well. 

Luis Severino is one of the better starters in baseball.  He went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 31 starts last season.  He struck out 230 batters in 193 1/3 innings.  He is 2-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP through three starts this season as well. 

Caleb Smith has not fared well in limited action in the big leagues in his brief two-year career to this point. He is 0-2 with a 6.47 ERA and 1.625 WHIP while allowing 23 earned runs and 6 homers in 32 innings.  He is in line to get rocked against this potent Yankees’ lineup tonight. 

The Marlins are 18-39 in their last 57 vs. AL East opponents.  Miami is 8-24 in its last 32 interleague road games.  The Yankees are 6-0 in their last six interleague games.  New York is 7-1 in its last eight home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Yankees are 7-0 in Severino’s last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  New York is 13-3 in Severino’s last 16 home starts.  Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Monday. 

15* Timberwolves/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota +11.5 

The Houston Rockets have been the best team in the NBA during the regular season.  That makes them overvalued heading into the playoffs.  Expectations are high, and I look for them to fall short of expectations in Game 1 considering they are whopping 11.5-point favorites over the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

I think the fact that the Rockets took their foot off the gas down the stretch after wrapping up the No. 1 seed in the West will work against them early in the playoffs.  They went 1-6 ATS over their final seven games and haven’t been into it mentally.  They also have some key injuries right now with Luc Mbah a Moute and Ryan Anderson out for Game 1, and Eric Gordon questionable. 

The Timberwolves have been playing playoff basketball down the stretch.  They needed to win Game No. 82 just to get into the playoffs, and they did so in overtime against the Nuggets, so they will be oozing with confidence and feeling like they are playing with house’s money.  They also got a healthy Jimmy Butler back for the last few games of the regular season, and this team has been much better with Butler in the lineup as he has played at a near-MVP level when healthy this year. 

I also think the fact that the Rockets went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the Timberwolves this season has them overvalued, and it also has the Timberwolves motivated for revenge.  Having Butler healthy and able to guard James Harden will be huge in this series.  Butler is one of the top defenders in the league when focused, and he’ll certainly be focused in the playoffs. 

The Timberwolves are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, including 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since Butler returned from injury.  He only played in 62 games this season.  The Timberwolves went 8-12 without him, and 39-23 with him.  That’s the kind of difference he makes for this team.  It’s safe to say Minnesota is one dangerous 8th seed, and maybe the best 8th seed I can ever remember.  Roll with the Timberwolves Sunday.

20* Jazz/Thunder TNT Sunday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3.5 

The Utah Jazz are certainly a great regular season team.  They play solid defense and will fight you every night.  But they lack superstar power, and that’s what you need in the playoffs.  I think they are in over their heads here in Game 1 against the Thunder. 

The Thunder aren’t short on star power.  Russell Westbrook just finished averaging a triple-double for the second consecutive season, which is unheard of.   Paul George is still a Top 10 player in this league, Carmelo Anthony is hungry, and Steven Adams is one of the most underrated centers in the game because he does all the dirty work. 

I think the Jazz come in overvalued due to their big finish to the season.  But they are just 20-21 on the road, and the Thunder have an excellent home-court advantage with a 27-14 record this season.  And the Thunder own the Jazz, going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.   

The Thunder won their final three meetings with the Jazz this season by 14, 28 and 6 points.  In fact, Oklahoma City is 14-0 SU in its last 14 home meetings with Utah.  It has won those 14 meetings by an average of 14.9 points per game.  Enough said.  Bet the Thunder Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -115 

Rookie left-hander Joey Lucchesi moved into the Padres’ rotation when Dinelson Lamet suffered an elbow injury in his final start of spring training.  Lucchesi has taken advantage, going 1-0 with a 1.72 ERA and 1.021 WHIP with 16 K’s in 15 2/3 innings in his three starts against Colorado (twice) and Milwaukee. 

Fellow rookie Tyler Beede has only made one start for the Giants, and it didn’t go well.  He allowed eight base runners, including five walks, in four innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks at home.  He was clearly feeling the nerves and now will be making his first career road start. 

Lucchesi was named the Padres Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2017, going a combined 11-7 with a 2.20 ERA between his two stops with a combined .200 batting average against.  He had 148 strikeouts against only 33 walks in 139 innings.  This guy is a future star, and he’s mispriced in the early going in 2018. 

The Giants are 20-43 in their last 63 road games.  San Francisco is 3-14 in its last 17 during Game 4 of a series.  The Padres are 22-10 in the last 32 meetings, including 4-1 in the last five meetings in San Diego.  Take the Padres Sunday. 

15* DBacks/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 7 

The books have set the bar too low on this total between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers tonight.  Look for a slug fest similar to the 8-7 final last night as this has tended to be a much higher scoring series than it gets credit for. 

Taijaun Walker is 2-2 with a 6.07 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in six career starts against Los Angeles.  Rich Hill is 1-6 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.286 WHIP in 11 career starts against Arizona.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hill’s last four starts vs. Arizona. 

The OVER is 9-3 in Diamondbacks last 12 vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 5-1 in Dodgers last six vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles.  Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday. 

20* Heat/76ers ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Miami +7 

The Miami Heat are probably the most underrated team in the Eastern Conference playoffs.  They aren’t flashy and lack superstars, but they will fight, scratch and claw on every possession.  This is the type of team I want to get behind. 

The 76ers come into the playoffs way overvalued due to their 16-game winning streak.  Now they are being asked to lay 7 points here in Game 1 despite the fact that they will be missing their best player in Joel Embiid.  It’s always tough for young teams like the 76ers to have success in their first go-round in the playoffs, and I expect that to be the case for Philadelphia. 

The Heat have played the 76ers extremely tough this season, and in recent years.  Miami split the season series 2-2 with its two losses both coming on the road by 2 and 6 points, respectively.  Only once in the last 15 meetings have the 76ers beaten the Heat by more than 7 points, which was an 8-point win.  That makes for a 14-1 system backing the Heat pertaining to this 7-point spread.   

The Heat are 15-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last two seasons.  Miami is 15-3 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two years.  The Heat are 26-9-2 ATS in their last 37 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Bet the Heat Saturday. 

15* Spurs/Warriors ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on San Antonio +8 

The Golden State Warriors are vulnerable in Round 1 because they are missing their best player in Stephen Curry.  They just haven’t been the same without him down the stretch, and they certainly should not be laying 8 points to the Spurs in Game 1 Saturday. 

The Warriors are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  They have gone just 6-10 SU in their last 16 games.  That’s not the sign of a team that should be this big of a favorite against a Spurs team that played well down the stretch just to get into the playoffs. 

The Spurs are 10-5 SU & 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  They have been playing playoff basketball for a month now because there was a brief time there where they were in 9th place in the West and in need of a big finish just to get into the playoffs. 

The last two meetings have been impressive by the Spurs.  They only lost 107-110 at Golden State as 11-point underdogs on March 8th in a game in which the Warriors needed a huge fourth quarter just to get a close win.  And the Spurs returned the favor with an 89-75 victory on March 19th at home in their most recent meeting. 

Golden State is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team that wins 51% to 60% of its games on ht season.  The Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven following a win by more than 10 points.  The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Golden State is 9-24-1 ATS in its last 34 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Spurs Saturday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-119) 

The Houston Astros will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight following back-to-back losses at Minnesota.  They are still 9-4 on the season with seven of those wins coming by two runs or more.  So instead of laying -240 on the money line, we’ll back them on the run line at a much more favorable -119 price. 

Gerrit Cole has delivered in a big way for the Astros in the early going.  He is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two starts with 22 strikeouts in 14 innings.  One of those starts came against Texas on April 1st as he allowed just one earned run in 7 innings while striking out 11.  Cole is now 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two career starts against Texas. 

Cole Hamels has taken a big step back since joining the Rangers.  He hasn’t fared well thus far in 2018, going 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in three starts.  Hamels is 0-2 with a 9.34 ERA in his last two starts against Houston, giving up 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 8 2/3 innings. 

Texas is 1-11 off two straight losses by 4 runs or more over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to lose by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Rangers are 0-9 in their last nine vs. starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Houston is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Friday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -117 

The New York Mets are off to their best start in franchise history.  They are showing what they can do when healthy, which they weren’t last season.  They are now 10-1 on the season.  This will be their first home game since April 4th, and it will be a packed house tonight as fans show their appreciation for this incredible start. 

The Mets send Steven Matz to the mound to try and continue the success of this dominant rotation thus far.  Matz has posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.333 WHIP through his first two starts this season against St. Louis and Washington.  He is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in two career starts against Milwaukee. 

The Brewers are fortunate to be 7-6 this season, because they have the third-worst run differential (-15) in the National League.  They aren’t doing anything well, but have just been fortunate in close games.  Zach Davies is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in two starts this season.  Davies gave up 6 earned runs and 16 base runners in 10 innings across two starts against the Mets last season for a 5.40 ERA. 

The Mets are 7-0 in their last seven games following a win.  New York is 8-0 vs. an NL team with a batting average of .255 or worse this season.  The Brewers are 1-4 in Davies’ last five starts.  The Mets are 7-2 in their last nine home meetings with Milwaukee.  Roll with the Mets Friday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -128 

This is a pretty generous price to get the Cleveland Indians at home tonight.  Usually they are around -200 favorites at home, but tonight they are only -128.  We’ll gladly take advantage. 

One of the reasons they are undervalued tonight is because Mike Clevinger is one of the most underrated starters in baseball.  He went 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA last year for the Indians, and he’s 1-0 with a 0.71 ERA through two starts this season, allowing just one earned run in 12 2/3 innings. 

I’m not quite sure why Marcus Stroman is getting so much respect from the books tonight.  He is 0-1 with an 8.38 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up 9 earned runs and 17 base runners in 9 2/3 innings. 

Cleveland is 30-6 off two straight wins by 4 runs or more over the last three seasons.  The Blue Jays are 0-6 in Stroman’s last six Friday starts.  The Indians are 24-5 in their last 29 during Game 1 of a series.  Cleveland is 7-0 in Clevinger’s last seven home starts.  The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last six meetings in Cleveland.  Take the Indians Friday. 

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Rockies/Nationals OVER 9 

The key handicap as to why I like this OVER tonight is the fact that the weather will be great in Washington for a high-scoring affair.  Temperatures will be in the 70’s by game time and the wind is expected to be blowing out to straightaway center at 19 miles per hour. 

I think this total is lower than it should be because both Chad Bettis (2.53 ERA) and Gio Gonzalez (1.59 ERA) have been successful in their first two starts.  But Bettis faced the Padres and Braves, while Gonzalez faced the Reds and Mets. 

These are two of the best lineups in the National League.  It will be by far the toughest test of the season for both Bettis and Gonzalez.  The Rockies and Nationals have combined for 12 or more runs in eight of their last 11 meetings with the OVER going 8-3 in those 11 games. 

Gonzalez is 16-4 OVER in his last 20 home games after giving up one or fewer earned runs in each of his last two outings coming in.  The OVER is 7-3-1 in Rockies last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  The OVER is 4-1 in Gonzalez’s last five starts overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday. 

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn Nets -1 

The Boston Celtics will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days here tonight.  They are already short-handed with all of their injuries, and they would be wise to rest all of their starters in this final game before the playoffs. 

The Celtics are locked in to the No. 2 seed, so this game doesn’t matter to them at all.  That’s why we have seen a shift from the opener of Celtics -5.5 to the Nets being 1-point favorites.  It’s a big adjustment, but it’s not big enough.  It’s clear to me that the Nets will win this game. 

Brooklyn has been playing for pride and trying to build chemistry down the stretch.  That’s evident by the fact that the Nets are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall, including three straight victories by 8 points or more coming in.  They aren’t about to let up now. 

The Nets are 9-1 ATS in road games off a combined score of 215 points or more in three straight games this season.  Boston is 6-17 ATS in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last two years.  The Celtics are 1-8 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 110 or more points per game this season.  Brooklyn is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Boston.  Take the Nets Wednesday. 

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Timberwolves UNDER 214.5 

This is a play-in game between the Nuggets and Timberwolves.  The winner will be the 8th seed in the playoffs, while the loser will either be taking a depressing flight or bus ride home.  With what’s at stake, I fully expect this to be a nervy, defensive battle tonight. 

The Nuggets and Timberwolves recently played on April 5th less than a week ago.  The Nuggets won that game 100-96 at home for 196 combined points.  Now we are seeing a total set of 214.5, which is way too high and I believe there is value with the UNDER because of it. 

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (Minnesota) - after going under the total by 42 or more points in their last five games, when playing a division opponent are 37-16 (69.8%) since 1996. 

Minnesota is 14-4 UNDER off two or more consecutive unders this season.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-123) 

Instead of laying roughly -265 to back the Indians on the money line, we are going to take the hugely discounted price of -123 on the run line tonight.  I am sure they will get the win against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Tigers, and it’s likely to come by two runs or more due to their massive advantage on the mound. 

Carlos Carrasco is one of the better starters in baseball.  He is off to a 2-0 start with a 5.40 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in his two starts this season.  Carrasco has dominated the Tigers recently, going 7-1 with a 1.52 ERA in his last 11 starts against them, giving up just 11 earned runs in 65 1/3 innings. 

Jordan Zimmerman has been a massive bust in Detroit.  He is 0-0 with an 8.71 ERA and 1.646 WHIP in his two starts this season against Chicago and Pittsburgh, giving up 10 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.  Zimmerman has never beaten the Indians, going 0-4 with a whopping 10.88 ERA and 2.014 WHIP in five career starts against them. 

The Tigers are 1-8 in Zimmerman’s last nine starts when working on five days’ rest.  Detroit is 17-47 in its last 64 games overall.  The Indians are 21-5 in Carrasco’s last 26 starts vs. AL Central opponents.  Cleveland is 8-0 in Carrasco’s last eight home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Cleveland is 7-0 in Carrasco’s last seven starts when working on four days’ rest.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Wednesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+130) 

Instead of laying -175 or so to back the Cardinals on the money line, I’m going to take the value and bet the Cardinals on the -1.5 run line at a +130 price.  I have no doubt the Cardinals win this game, and it’s likely they do so by 2 runs or more given their advantage on the mound. 

Carlos Martinez pitched 8 1/3 shutout innings while striking out 10 in a 6-0 win at Milwaukee in his last start.  He is now 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Brewers.  He’ll be motivated to help the Cardinals bounce back from two consecutive losses coming in, including one in extra innings last night to the Brewers. 

Brent Suter has been rocked in the early going.  He is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.700 WHIP while allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 10 innings pitched across two starts this season.  Suter has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in two career starts against them. 

The Cardinals are 4-1 in Martinez’s last five home starts.  The Brewers are 1-4 in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 8-2 in Martinez’s last 10 Tuesday starts.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday. 

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Hawks +10 

The Atlanta Hawks will be playing their season finale today at home against one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference in the Philadelphia 76ers.  They will be motivated to beat the 76ers, just as they have other playoff teams here recently. 

The Hawks are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They beat Orlando, only lost to Miami by 3 as 13-point road dogs, beat Washington by 6 as 10.5-point road dogs, and beat Boston by 6 as 9.5-point road dogs.  Those efforts show that we are getting tremendous value with them as 10-point home underdogs tonight. 

The 76ers are grossly overvalued right now due to their 14-game winning streak.  They are certainly worthy of being favorites here tonight, but not double-digit road favorites.  Philadelphia hasn’t beaten Atlanta by more than 10 points in any of the last 17 meetings in this series, making for a 17-0 system backing the Hawks pertaining to this 10-point spread. 

Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games against opponent after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games are 64-28 (69.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.   

Plays on home teams (Atlanta) revenging a home loss vs. opponent of 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record are 39-15 (72.2%) ATS over the last five years.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +110 

The Baltimore Orioles are showing excellent value as home underdogs to the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.  They will be motivated to bounce back from a 1-7 loss to the Blue Jays in Game 1 of this series yesterday, and I actually believe they have the advantage on the mound tonight. 

Aaron Sanchez is off to a rough start for the Blue Jays, going 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.628 WHIP in his two starts this season while allowing 7 earned runs and 19 base runners in 11 2/3 innings.  Sanchez hasn’t enjoyed facing the Orioles as he has posted a 4.69 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in 10 career starts against them. He gave up 8 earned runs and 4 homers in 11 1/3 innings in his two starts against Baltimore last season. 

Andrew Cashner has been one of the more underrated starters in his time in the big leagues.  He is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in two starts this season.  He only allowed one earned run in 6 innings of a 5-2 win at Yankee Stadium last time out, which is no small feat.  Cashner is 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.077 WHIP in two career starts against Toronto. 

Plays on home teams (Baltimore) - off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite, a bad team (38% or less) playing a team with a winning record are 30-9 (76.9%, +24 units) over the last five seasons.  The Blue Jays are 1-5 in Sanchez’s last six starts.  Roll with the Orioles Tuesday. 

25* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Denver Nuggets -4 

The Denver Nuggets have really stepped up their game down the stretch with their playoff lives on the line.  They have gone 5-0 in their last five games overall while beating four playoff teams in Oklahoma City, Milwaukee, Indiana and Minnesota, as well as a 134-115 road win at Oklahoma City. 

The Nuggets are now tied with the Timberwolves for the 8th seed, but they currently lose out on the tiebreaker.  They play at Minnesota Wednesday night, so they must keep pace with them with a win here if they want to make the playoffs.  The Timberwolves host the Grizzlies tonight and will surely win that game. 

Portland really has nothing to play for.  The Blazers can either be the 3rd or 4th seed in the West, but that won’t be determined until they play current 4th seed Utah on Wednesday.  They will be looking ahead to that game.  The Blazers are clearly worried more about resting right now as they are 0-3 in their last three games overall and disinterested. 

The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well.  The Nuggets have won their last two meetings with the Blazers this season, one at home and one on the road.  Bet the Nuggets Monday. 

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -125 

I expect the Philadelphia Phillies to be one of the most improved teams in baseball this season.  Their young prospects are starting to make big gains, and they added some nice pieces in free agency.  They just went off for 20 runs against the Marlins on Saturday to flash their potential. 

Ben Lively was effective in his first start this season, limiting the Mets to 2 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings for a 3.17 ERA.  Now Lively will face a poor Cincinnati lineup that will be missing one of their best players for the foreseeable future.  Third baseman Eugenio Suarez fractured his right thumb Sunday.  He has two homers and seven RBIs in eight games this season.  Lively was also drafted by the Reds, so he wants revenge on his former team. 

Cody Reed has been awful as a big leaguer for the Reds.  In 22 major league appearances (11 starts), Reed is 1-8 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.776 WHIP.  Only one of his 12 outings last year came out of the bullpen.  Reed went 0-2 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.78 WHIP in spring training this season and it’s mind-blowing that he even has a spot in the rotation. 

The Reds are 0-11 in Reed’s last 11 starts.  Cincinnati is 23-50 in its last 73 road games.  The Reds are 12-39 in their last 51 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Phillies are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Reds are 11-27 in their last 38 meetings in Philadelphia.  Roll with the Phillies Monday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-123) 

The Cleveland Indians have a massive edge on the mound and at the plate tonight over the Detroit Tigers. Look for them to win this game by multiple runs.  So instead of laying -270 on the run line, we’ll take the much more generous price of -123 on the run line tonight. 

Corey Kluber is one of the Top 5 starters in baseball.  He has gone 0-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.800 WHIP in two starts this season, and will be motivated to pick up his first victory tonight.  Kluber owned the Tiger in his final three starts against them last year, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA while allowing just 2 earned runs in 22 innings. 

Francisco Liriano is well past his prime and fortunate to still have a spot in a rotation somewhere.  Liriano gave up 7 earned runs in 2 innings in his lone start against Cleveland last year.  Look for the Indians to finally get their bats going tonight against Liriano. 

The Tigers are 2-12 in their last 14 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Indians are 23-5 in their last 28 during Game 1 of a series.  Cleveland is 36-15 in Kluber’s last 51 starts, and 24-9 in his last 33 home starts.  Take the Indians on the Run Line Monday. 

15* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Detroit Pistons -6.5 

The Detroit Pistons are playing for more than pride.  They want to see if they can get to .500 on the season as they are currently 38-41.  They have put themselves in this position to consider this season a success by going 8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. 

The Memphis Grizzlies could care less about winning games right now as they just want the highest draft pick possible.  They are 21-58 on the season.  It’s obvious they are trying to lose when you just look at their injury report. 

Mike Conley, Tyreke Evans, Wayne Selden, Marc Gasol, Chandler Parsons, Jarell Martin, JaMychal Green and Andrew Harrison are all expected to rest today.  They are going to be sending a bunch of D League players out there for this one, purposely trying to lose. 

Plays on road favorites (Detroit) - with a winning percentage between 40% and 49% on the season, on Sunday games are 33-6 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Detroit is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Pistons Sunday. 

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-110) 

I fully expect the Cleveland Indians to bounce back from a 1-0 loss to the Royals yesterday with a win by two runs or more today.  So instead of laying the -200 price on the money line, I’ll take the -1.5 run line. 

Mike Clevinger is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in his lone start this season.  He is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues.  Clevinger is 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in four career starts against Kansas City. 

Jason Hammel is 3-5 with a 5.37 ERA in 10 career starts against Cleveland. He gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings and 10 base runners in a 1-6 loss at Detroit in his first start this season for a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. 

Hammel is 1-17 in his last 18 games as an underdog of +175 to +250.  His teams are losing by 3.5 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line. 

20* NBA Sunday No Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets +2.5

The Pacers are coming off a 73-92 loss at Toronto.  That loss basically sealed their fate as they are now locked in to the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference.  They would be better off resting their players and staying healthy for the playoffs now. 

The Charlotte Hornets have played much better down the stretch and have won five of their last nine games, including a 137-100 win in Orlando last time out.  They want to win their home finale here Sunday to give their home fans a lasting impression. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Hornets are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Pacers, winning by 7, 12, 22 and 7 points, respectively.  Bet the Hornets Sunday. 

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-130) 

The Houston Astros are actually better on paper this season than the team that won the World Series last year.  A big reason for that was the signing of Gerrit Cole, adding another No. 1 starter to an already loaded rotation. 

Cole was sharp in his first start for the Astros.  He allowed just one run and five base runners in 7 innings while striking out 11 in an 8-2 victory at Texas.  The Astros are off to a hot start this year, going 6-2 with five of those wins coming by 3 runs or more. 

The Padres are just 2-6 on the season, picking up a rare win in Game 1 yesterday that will have the Astros motivated to bounce back with a win today.  And Bryan Mitchell, who gave up 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings of a 4-7 loss to Colorado in his first start this season, is in line to get rocked by this potent Houston lineup. 

Houston is 22-7 after a game where it had 4 or fewer hits over the last three seasons.  The Padres are 3-12 in their last 15 games overall.  San Diego is 0-5 in its last five games following a win.  Houston is 22-4 in its last 26 home games.  The Astros are 30-12 in their last 42 vs. NL West opponents.  Take the Astros on the Run Line Saturday. 

20* Nuggets/Clippers NBA Saturday No-Brainer on Denver -2 

The Denver Nuggets are 0.5 games out of 8th place in the West, and just one game behind three other teams listed 5th through 7th in the West.  They still have a great shot to make the playoffs, but they are going to likely need to win out to get in. 

The Nuggets have been doing their part as they are 4-0 in their last four games overall, beating four playoff teams in the Thunder, Bucks, Pacers and Timberwolves all in close fashion.  Winning four straight close games the way they have has to have them oozing with confidence right now. 

The Los Angeles Clippers had a shot to make the playoffs with a few weeks left, but now they are 2.5 games out with only 3 games remaining after going 1-3 in their last four games overall.  The life has been sucked out of them, and I don’t expect them to show up at all today. 

The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.  The Clippers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 Saturday games.  Los Angeles is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 vs. NBA Northwest Division opponents.  Denver is 38-17 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last three seasons.  Bet the Nuggets Saturday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -102 

The Chicago White Sox are certainly a sleeper in the AL Central this season.  They have as much young talent as anyone in baseball, from their lineup through their rotation. 

The Detroit Tigers are one of the worst teams in baseball this season.  Their roster has been gutted, and they aren’t expecting to win this season.  The Tigers are just 2-4 this season, while the White Sox are off to a 3-3 start. 

Lucas Giolito is one of those young prospects for the White Sox.  He pitched solid in his first start, giving up 3 earned runs in 6 innings of a 4-3 win at Kansas City.  Giolito pitched 7 shutout innings in a 7-1 home victory over Detroit in his only career start against the Tigers last season. 

Michael Fulmer has struggled in recent starts against the White Sox, giving up 3 earned runs or more in four of his five career starts against them.  The Tigers are 1-7 in Fulmer’s last eight starts.  Detroit is 0-4 in Fulmer’s last four road starts.  Chicago is 4-0 in Giolito’s last four starts vs. AL Central opponents.  Roll with the White Sox Saturday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -132 

The Chicago Cubs got off to a slow start this season.  Then they got two days off on Tuesday and Wednesday and came back with an 8-0 victory over the Brewers yesterday.  They remain motivated and rested tonight. 

The Cubs have a big advantage on the mound with Kyle Hendricks tonight.  He is a Cy Young candidate year after year.  Hendricks has gone 6-4 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.050 WHIP in 15 career starts against Milwaukee. 

Brandon Woodruff is 2-3 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.360 WHIP over eight career starts and two relief appearances.  He is 0-0 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his lone career start against Chicago, giving up 4 earned runs and 8 base runners in 5 innings. 

The Cubs are 26-6 in their last 32 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Chicago is 6-1 in Hendricks’ last seven starts when working on 6 days of rest.  The Brewers are 0-5 in Woodruff’s last five home starts.  The Cubs are 6-1 in their last seven meetings in Milwaukee.  Take the Cubs Friday. 

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bulls +10.5 

The Boston Celtics just lost to the Toronto Raptors.  It was a huge game for them as they entered just two games behind the Raptors.  But after losing that game by 18, they are now essentially locked in to the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. 

I don’t expect the Celtics to show up at all for this game.  That’s going to make it tough for them to be able to cover this massive double-digit spread.  They are banged up right now without Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart, and several others are nursing injuries. 

The Bulls continue to play for pride and have been extremely undervalued over the past week.  The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They have pulled off three straight outright upsets, beating the Magic by 8 on the road as 6.5-point dogs, the Wizards by 17 at home as 7-point dogs and the Hornets at home by 6 as 5.5-point dogs. 

Chicago is a perfect 11-0 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  Boston is 4-15 ATS in home games when playing against a team that wins 25% to 40% of their games over the last two years.  Bet the Bulls Friday. 

15* MLB Friday Total DOMINATOR on Orioles/Yankees OVER 9 

The wind is expected to be blowing out to left field at about 12 MPH today inside Yankee Stadium.  That will help aid this OVER between the Yankees and Orioles. 

Kevin Gausman is coming off a terrible season, and C.C. Sabathia is far past his prime.  And both starters have struggled in recent starters against the opposition. 

Sabathia is 0-0 with a 9.82 ERA in his last two starts against Baltimore, giving up 12 earned runs and 5 homers in 11 innings.  Gausman is 0-2 with a 17.06 ERA in his last two starts against the Yankees, giving up 12 earned runs and 22 base runners in 6 1/3 innings. 

The OVER is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in New York.  The OVER is 5-0 in Gausman’s last five starts vs. New York.  The OVER is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday. 

20* Timberwolves/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 225.5 

This game will have a playoff atmosphere Thursday night.  The 8th place Timberwolves visit the 9th place Nuggets with only one game separating the two.  Both teams are trying to secure a playoff spot, and you can bet the defensive intensity will be as high as any point this season from each squad. 

I think this total has been inflated because Denver has played in some high-scoring affairs of late due to two overtime games in their last three.  But their defense has been much better down the stretch as they’ve tried to hang on for a playoff spot, winning three straight nail biters. 

This has certainly been an UNDER series.  The Timberwolves and Nuggets have combined for 219 or fewer points in 13 of their last 14 meetings.  The only exception was an overtime game.  That makes for a sweet 13-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight’s total set of 225.5.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday. 

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -118 

The Chicago Cubs are rested and ready to go tonight.  They have had the last two days off and will be highly motivated to bounce back from two straight shutout losses.  They have been chomping at the bit to get back on the diamond and make up for it. 

The Milwaukee Brewers have already played six games and are coming off a shutout loss to the Cardinals yesterday.  They’ll be giving the ball to Brent Suter, who only has 17 big league starts to his name and is certainly getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. 

Jon Lester is also motivated following a poor start in Miami to open the season.  Look for him to be much sharper in his second start.  Lester is 3-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in six career starts against Milwaukee. 

Chicago is 17-4 in road games off a loss by 2 runs or less over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by 2.7 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Cubs are 37-16 in their last 53 games following an off day.  Chicago is 5-1 in its last six trips to Milwaukee, and 4-0 in Lester’s last four starts vs. Brewers.  Take the Cubs Thursday.