|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-08-12||Rice v. Kansas -9.5||25-24||Loss||-105||93 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Kansas -9.5
Sure, the Kansas Jayhawks are picked to finish last in the Big 12 this season, but they should have no problem beating the lowly Rice Owls by double-digits at home Saturday. This team is showing great value early in the season, especially today.
New head coach Charlie Weis inherits a team that went just 2-10 last season. But the Jayhawks bring back 14 starters and 51 lettermen, making them one of the most experienced teams in college football. Plus, Weis has brought in senior QB Dayne Crist, who he coached in his last two years at Notre Dame.
Top receivers DJ Beshears (40, 437, three TD) and Kale Pick (34, 44, two TD), and three starters and 75 career starts return along the offensive line. The Jayhawks return seven starters on defense, including six of their top eight tacklers.
Kansas dominated the first three quarters against South Dakote State in the opener. The Jayhawks were up 24-7 after three before letting up in the final period to win 31-17. Tony Pierson led the way on the ground, rushing for 124 yards and two touchdowns. Kansas' defense forced four interceptions in a solid performance.
The Jayhawks rushed for 263 yards against SDSU, and they should have no problem running the ball on a Rice team that gave up 343 rushing yards in a 49-24 home loss to UCLA in their opener. In fact, the Bruins also threw for 303 yards, racking up 646 total yards on the Owls. This is a Rice team that brings back just 10 starters from a squad that went 4-8 a year ago.
Rice is 0-6 ATS in road games after allowing 37 points or more last game over the last 3 seasons. It is losing in this spot by an average score of 51.8 to 27.3. The Owls are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. Rice is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 vs. Big 12 opponents. The Jayhawks are 16-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with Kansas Saturday.
|09-08-12||Michigan State v. Central Michigan +22.5||41-7||Loss||-105||93 h 11 m||Show|
15* Instate Rivalry PLAY OF THE DAY on Central Michigan +22.5
I believe the Central Michigan Chippewas are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2012. They went just 3-9 last season, but head coach Dan Enos enters his third year on the job and finally has his recruits in place. The Chippewas return a whopping 16 starters from last year's team.
They return eight starters on offense, including senior QB Ryan Radcliff. He's primed for a big year after completing 56.7 percent of his passes for 3,286 yards with 25 touchdowns and 16 interceptions last season. He has his top two receivers back in Titus Davis (40, 751, eight TD) and Cody Wilson (48, 526, three TD). Also, four starters and 94 career starts return along the offensive line.
The defense will be much better with eight returning starters. That includes its top two tacklers in first-team All-MAC SS Jahleel Addae (107 tackles, four INT) and junior FS Avery Cunningham (79 tackles).
Central Michigan got off to a solid start this year with a 38-27 victory over SE Missouri State in a game that was more of a blowout than the score would indicate. The Chippewas outgained SEMS 496-308 for the game. Zurlon Tipton had a monster day on the ground, rushing for 180 yards and three scores. Anthony Garland added 102 yards and a touchdown.
I was not big on Michigan State coming into the season, and in their opener they looked like a team that is down this year. The Spartans were down heading into the 4th quarter in their opener against a Boise State team that returned just seven starters. They got a touchdown to win 17-13, but this team clearly misses the departed Kirk Cousins at quarterback.
The Spartans bring back just five starters on offense. They lose Cousins and their top four receivers from last season, including BJ Cunningham (79, 1,306, 12 TD). New QB Andrew Maxwell was horrible against Boise State, completing 22 of 38 passes for 248 yards with three interceptions. The Spartans are going to be too predictable this season without a proven QB under center. I look for CMU to put eight in the box to try and shut down RB Le'Veon Bell.
Central Michigan always seems to play Michigan State tough, and they upset the Spartans on the road 29-27 in 2009. The Chippewas are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Spartans, only losing twice by more than 17 points in those 10 contests.
This play falls into a system that is 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet on a home team (C MICHIGAN) - poor defense from last season - allowed 400 or more total yards/game, with 16 total starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season. Bet Central Michigan Saturday.
|09-08-12||Ball State +27.5 v. Clemson||27-52||Win||100||90 h 12 m||Show|
15* CFB Letdown GAME OF THE WEEK on Ball State +27.5
The Clemson Tigers are way overvalued Saturday after beating Auburn 26-19 in their opener. After a huge rivalry game, this is definitely a letdown spot for the Tigers. As we saw last year, Clemson was prone to letdowns late in the season.
The Tigers have excellent skill players offensively which "wows" bettors. But they have a lot of weaknesses along the offensive line and on defense. I can't see them blowing out this underrated Ball State team by four touchdowns or more.
Ball State went a respectable 6-6 last season. It brings back 13 starters from that team, including many of its best players. QB Keith Wenning returns after completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 2,786 yards with 19 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Leading rusher Jahwan Edwards (786 yards, 11 TD) returns, as do four starters and 115 career starts along the offensive line.
The defense welcomes back wo of its best players in senior LB Travis Freeman (#1 tackler, 134 tackles, 6 for loss) and junior DT Nathan Ollie (42 tackles, 6 sacks). This is going to be one of the most improved stop units in the entire country.
Ball State was impressive in its opener, beating an underrated Eastern Michigan team 37-26 at home. This game was a bigger blowout than the score would indicate considering the Cardinals outgained the Eagles 596-366 for the game. Wenning threw for 267 yards, while Edwards rushed for 200 yards and three touchdowns. This offense can come close to keeping pace with Clemson.
The Cardinals are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 road games. Ball State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Take Ball State Saturday.
|09-08-12||Auburn v. Mississippi State -3||10-28||Win||100||90 h 33 m||Show|
15* Auburn/Mississippi State ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State -3
The Mississippi State Bulldogs should be a much heavier favorite at home over the Auburn Tigers Saturday. The Bulldogs want revenge from a 41-34 road loss to the Tigers last season in a game in which Mississippi State outgained Auburn 531-381 and clearly should have won that contest.
Mississippi State will have its revenge in a big way at home this time around. It returns 12 starters and most of its top players from last season. Junior QB Tyler Russell threw for 1,034 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions over four starts and nine games last season. He has his top three receivers back and should be better in 2012.
The defense returns seven starters from a stop unit that yielded just 19.7 points and 351 total yards per game against a brutal schedule a year ago. Leading the way in 2012 will be senior LB Cameron Lawrence (#1 tackler, 123 tackles, 6 for loss, two INT), senior CB Johnthan Banks (71 tackles, eight for loss, five INT), junior LB Deontae Skinner (69 tackles, 9 for loss) and senior DT Josh Boyd (51 tackles, 4.5 sacks).
Mississippi State looked great in its opener, beating Jackson State 56-9 at home. The same cannot be said for Auburn, which lost 19-26 to Clemson in a game that should have been a much bigger blowout. The Tigers were outgained 528-374 for the game, giving up huge chunks of yardage defensively. Auburn QB Kiehl Frazier was awful, completing just 11 of 27 passes for 194 yards with one touchdown an one interception against a weak Clemson defense. The Bulldogs have a much stronger defense than Clemson, which is not good news for Frazier.
The Tigers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. The favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take Mississippi State Saturday.
|09-08-12||Penn State +10 v. Virginia||16-17||Win||100||90 h 33 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Penn State +10
After losing 14-24 to Ohio in their opener, the Penn State Nittany Lions are showing tremendous value at Virginia Saturday. Penn State led 14-3 in that game, but a fluke Ohio pass that went off a defenders' hands and ended up in a long touchdown by the Bobcats really swung the momentum the other way. With what these players have been through this offseason, they are resilient and will bounce back Saturday.
Virginia is one of the most overrated teams in the country this season. It went 8-5 last year, but with just 12 starters back, the Cavaliers are not going to be as good. They lose five of their top eight tacklers on defense and will be very vulnerable on that side of the ball.
While Penn State played a solid Ohio team in its opener, Virgina played Richmond and didn't really look all that sharp. The Cavaliers won 43-19 and won't be as battle-tested as the Nittany Lions coming into this one. Virginia is clearly getting too much respect from oddsmakers here.
This play falls into a system that is 30-6 (83.3%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season. Roll with Penn State Saturday.
|09-08-12||Maryland +10 v. Temple||36-27||Win||100||90 h 32 m||Show|
15* CFB Revenge GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland +10
The Maryland Terrapins are one of the most underrated teams in the country heading into 2012. Head coach Randy Edsall turned Connecticut into a winner, and he's going to do the same at Maryland. He enters his second season with the program and brings back a lot of talent from last year's team.
The Terrapins return 15 starters this season. Defensively, they bring back nine starters and 11 of their top 13 tacklers. Behind a solid defensive effort Saturday, the Terrapins will have no problem staying within this inflated number.
Maryland wants revenge from a 38-7 home loss to Temple as an 8-point favorite last season. That motivation alone will have them giving it all, plus they want to redeem themselves from a poor effort in a 7-6 victory over William & Mary in their opener.
Temple is coming off a 9-4 season, but it loses a ton of players from last year's team. The Owls only have eight starters back. They lose leading rusher Bernard Pierce (1,481 yards, 27 TD), their top three receivers, and four starters on the offensive line. The defense loses its top four tacklers as well.
Temple's 41-10 victory over Villanova was way misleading, which is a big reason they are overvalued here. The Owls were actually outgained by the Wildcats 365-362, and they gave up a whopping 212 rushing yards to Villanova.
This play falls into a system that is 48-16 (75%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (MARYLAND) - with 6+ more total starters returning than opponent, in the first month of the season. Plus, the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Maryland Saturday.
|09-07-12||Utah -7 v. Utah State||Top||20-27||Loss||-101||101 h 38 m||Show|
25* Instate Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah -7
The Utah Utes brought back 16 starters from a team that went 8-5 last season. I really think this is one of the most underrated teams in the country heading into 2012. They got their 2012 campaign off to a solid start with a 41-0 victory over Northern Colorado on Saturday. Their defense was dominant, limiting the Bears to 114 total yards and while not allowing them to cross midfield once.
This game was scoreless after the first quarter, but Utah would score three touchdowns in the second to take a 21-0 lead into halftime. Senior RB John White, who set a single-season record with 1,519 yards and 15 touchdowns last season, finished with 119 yards and a score on 24 carries.
Junior quarterback Jordan Wynn was sharp, completing 19 of 27 passes for 200 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He led a 21-play, 91-yard drive that consumed 10:42 an ended in a Wynn to Jake Murphy touchdown early in the fourth quarter. It was Murphy
|09-07-12||Atlanta Braves +105 v. New York Mets||3-0||Win||105||7 h 24 m||Show|
15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +105
The Atlanta Braves should not be an underdog to the New York Mets tonight. Atlanta (78-60) is still playing to earn one of the Wildcard sports in the National League, while New York (65-72) has nothing to play for.
Paul Maholm is quietly having a solid season for Atlanta, going 11-9 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.215 WHIP in 26 starts this year. He'll be motivated to match the efforts of Mike Minor and Tim Hudson the last two days. Atlanta beat Colorado by finals of 1-0 on Wednesday AND Thursday behind dominant outings from both starters.
The Braves are 24-11 in their last 35 games following a win. The Mets are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 0-5 in Niese's last 5 starts as a favorite. Take the Braves Friday.
|09-07-12||Miami: J Turner v. Washington: Strasburg -1.5||9-7||Loss||-121||7 h 15 m||Show|
15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-121)
Stephen Strasburg knows he's going to get shut down after two more starts. That's why he will be throwing everything he has at Miami tonight in his second-to-last start. I have the Nationals winning this game by two-plus runs Friday.
Strasburg is 15-6 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.119 WHIP over 27 starts with 195 strikeouts in 156 1/3 innings. He is also 4-2 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.059 WHIP in eight career starts against the Marlins.
He'll be opposed by Jacob Turner, who is 1-3 with a 7.33 ERA and 1.457 WHIP over five starts this season. Turner is also 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in one career start against Washington.
The Nationals are rolling right now, winning five straight games heading into this one. They have scored a combined 29 runs in their last three contests, so they are feeling really good at the plate. Roll with Washington Friday.
|09-06-12||Pittsburgh v. Cincinnati -3.5||Top||10-34||Win||100||76 h 28 m||Show|
20* Pittsburgh/Cincinnati ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati -3.5
*Note* - I locked this line in at -3.5 on Tuesday. I see it's up to 5.5 in a lot of places. I still expect Cincinnati to win by a touchdown or more.
The Bearcats finished in a three-way tie for the Big East title in 2011. They went 10-3 overall after beating Vanderbilt 31-24 in the Liberty Bowl. Third-year head coach Butch Jones brings back 11 starters and 43 lettermen from last year
|09-05-12||San Diego: C Richard v. Los Angeles: A Harang -134||4-3||Loss||-134||11 h 8 m||Show|
15* Padres/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -134
The Los Angeles Dodgers (73-64) are still very much alive in the NL West and NL Wildcard races. The San Diego Padres (63-74) have nothing to play for the rest of the way. Los Angeles is showing solid value as a small home favorite tonight.
Aaron Harang has been pretty consistent all season, going 9-8 with a 3.76 ERA over 26 starts. San Diego's Clayton Richard has not been very effective away from home, going 5-8 with a 4.51 ERA in 16 road starts this year.
Harang is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last two starts against San Diego this season, yielding just three earned runs and nine base runners over 14 innings. It's safe to say that he loves facing this weak Padres' line-up.
The Padres are 1-7 in Richard's last 8 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. San Diego is 1-7 in Richard's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Padres are 1-12 in Richard's last 13 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Los Angeles is 19-7 in its last 26 meetings with San Diego, including 11-3 in its last 14 home meetings. Roll with the Dodgers Wednesday.
|09-05-12||Dallas Cowboys +4 v. NY Giants||Top||24-17||Win||100||53 h 7 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Giants NFL Season Opener on Dallas +4
After losing five of their last six meetings with the Giants, including both contests last year, the Dallas Cowboys have big-time revenge in mind Wednesday. I believe they get that revenge and win this game outright, but I'll take the 4 points for some insurance.
Dallas has made some great additions this offseason. They signed CB Brandon Carr (45 tackles, 15 pass break-ups, four INT) from Kansas City. They also used their first-round pick on CB Morris Claiborne (LSU). These two shutdown corners will allow defensive coordinator Rob Ryan to be much more aggressive with his blitz schemes.
The New York Giants went just 9-7 last season, and that was good enough to win the NFC East. We all know what they did after that, but I still believe this team has some gaping holes. The Cowboys will likely be without Jason Witten tonight, but the Giants are way more banged up and will be without several key players due to injury.
The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 1. The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. Bet Dallas Wednesday.
|09-05-12||Baltimore: M Gonzalez +104 v. Toronto: B Morrow||4-6||Loss||-100||8 h 3 m||Show|
15* AL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +104
The Baltimore Orioles should not be an underdog to the Toronto Blue Jays tonight. After winning nine of its last 11 games, Baltimore (76-59) now sits tied atop the AL East division standings with the New York Yankees.
Toronto (60-75) has nothing to play for the rest of the way. They have been playing like that's the case of late, losing four straight while getting outscored 8-32 in the process. Baltimore has shut out Toronto twice while winning the first two games of this series, outscoring the Blue Jays 16-0.
Miguel Gonzales is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The right-hander is 6-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 10 starts and three relief appearances, including 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in six road starts. Gonzalez has held the Yankees, Rangers and Red Sox to six earned runs in 18 innings over his last three outings for a 3.00 ERA.
The 4-0 in Gonzalez's last 4 starts vs. American League East. Baltimore is 4-0 in its last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The Blue Jays are 0-4 in their last 4 home games. These three trends make for a 12-0 system backing Baltimore. Take the Orioles Wednesday.
|09-04-12||Texas Rangers -151 v. Kansas City Royals||Top||3-6||Loss||-151||9 h 43 m||Show|
20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -151
The Texas Rangers are worth laying this price over Tuesday night against the Kansas City Royals. Texas (80-54) owns the best record in the American League and its four games clear of Oakland in the AL West race. Kansas City (60-74) has nothing to play for at this point.
The Rangers have a big edge on the mound with Matt Harrison, who is 15-8 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.262 WHIP in 26 starts this season. The left-hander is 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 15 road starts. Harrison is also 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in his last two starts against Kansas City, yielding two earned runs in 12 2/3 innings.
Jeremy Guthrie has been one of the worst starters in baseball in 2012. The right-hander is 6-11 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in 23 starts this year, including 3-6 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 12 home starts. Guthrie is 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA in his last two starts against Texas, giving up nine earned runs in 11 innings.
Harrison is 14-1 (+12.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 11-0 in Harrison's last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet Texas Tuesday.
|09-03-12||Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech UNDER 48.5||Top||17-20||Win||100||99 h 52 m||Show|
20* Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 48.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies have one of the best defenses in the entire country. They return nine starters from a stop unit that yielded just 17.5 points per game last season. They only have three starters back on offense, so points will be hard to come by in the early going for the Hokies.
Georgia Tech has six starters back on defense, which is about average. But the Yellow Jackets return seven of their top nine tacklers, so this is going to be a good stop unit in 2012.
These two teams are very familiar with each other having played one another for eight straight years. Virginia Tech is ready for Georgia Tech's triple-option attack, and it will shut it down Monday.
This play falls into a system that is 28-6 (82.4%) to the UNDER since 1992. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (VIRGINIA TECH) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
|09-03-12||LA Anaheim: C Wilson -105 v. Oakland: T Milone||8-3||Win||100||5 h 52 m||Show|
15* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -105
The Los Angeles Angels realize that this is their biggest series of the season. They trail Oakland by 5.5 games, so winning this series is a must. It starts with Game 1 Monday with C.J. Wilson on the mound.
Wilson is 10-9 with a 3.86 ERA this season. The left-hander is 5-4 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in 11 career starts against Oakland.
Los Angeles is 15-3 after allowing 4 runs or less 5 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 8-1 in their last 9 games as a favorite. Los Angeles is 8-2 in Wilson's last 10 starts as a road favorite. Bet the Angels Monday.
|09-02-12||SMU v. Baylor -10||Top||24-59||Win||100||74 h 32 m||Show|
20* SMU/Baylor CFB Sunday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Baylor -10
The Baylor Bears are going under the radar in 2012 because the lost Heisman Trophy winning QB Robert Griffin III, leading rusher Terrance Ganaway and leading receiver Kendall Wright. But the fact of the matter is that Baylor returns 14 starters and 54 lettermen.
This team won 10 games last season, and while those losses are big, they can still have a very good season. Baylor send senior QB Nick Florence out to lead the offense, and he'll be handing the ball off to Oregon transfer Lache Seastrunk, who is every bit as good as Ganaway.
Baylor was terrible defensively last season, giving up 37.2 points and 488 total yards per game. This is going to be one of the most improved teams in the country on defense with eight starters and 11 of their top 13 tacklers back.
SMU will be one of the worst teams in the country this season with just 10 starters back from last year's team. The offense is in a world of hurt with only three starters returnining, and they lose their starting QB from last year too. The biggest reason why SMU will get rolled in this one is the fact that it has to break in five new starters along the offensive line.
SMU is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) when the total is between 56.5 and 63 since 1992. Baylor is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games. Bet the Bears Sunday.
|09-01-12||Chicago (A): F Liriano +143 v. Detroit: M Scherzer||1-5||Loss||-100||8 h 19 m||Show|
15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox +143
The Chicago White Sox sit two games ahead of the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central division. After losing Game 1 yesterday, I have the White Sox bouncing back with a victory in Game 2 tonight.
Francisco Liriano has been an excellent addition to Chicago's staff before the trade deadline. The left-hander is 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA in his last three starts, allowing exactly two earned runs in each.
With a 4.13 ERA and 1.351 WHIP over 26 starts for Detroit this season, Max Scherzer is overvalued today. Scherzer is 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA in three starts against Chicago this year.
The White Sox are 4-0 in Liriano's last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Bet Chicago Saturday.
|09-01-12||Clemson v. Auburn +3.5||26-19||Loss||-109||64 h 26 m||Show|
15* Auburn/Clemson ESPN Saturday Night BAILOUT on Auburn +3.5
The Auburn Tigers managed an 8-5 season last year despite losing almost everyone from their 2010-11 National Championship team. With 15 returning starters and another Top-5 recruiting class, Gene Chizik and the Tigers are primed to surprise again in 2012.
Sophomore QB Kiehl Frazier got his feet wet last season, and now he's ready to shine as a starter. Onterio McCalebb (641 yards, 5.7/carry, five TD) is one of the most explosive players in the SEC. The Tigers return their top four pass catchers from last season, including WR Emory Blake (36 receptions, 613 yards, five TD) and TE Philip Lutzenkirchen (24, 238, seven TD).
With nine starters back on defense, this is going to be one of the most improved stop units in the country. Senior SLB Daren Bates (104 tackles, 8.5 for loss), junior SS Demetruce McNeal (74 tackles, two INT), junior DE Corey Lemonier (47 tackles, 9.5 sacks), senior CB T'Sharvan Bell (45 tackles, two INT) and junior MLB Jake Holland (43 tackles, two INT) all return.
Clemson has that 'wow' factor that bettors fall in love with. The Tigers shockingly won the ACC last season, and as a result they are way overvalued coming into 2012. They should not be favored against a more talented SEC team on a neutral field Saturday.
Sure, QB Tajh Boyd, WR Sammy Watkins, RB Andre Ellington and almost all of Clemson's top skill players are back on offense. However, Watkins has been suspended for the first two games, and there are glaring weaknesses throughout the rest of their team.
The offensive line loses three starters and has just 48 career starts returning up front. The defense loses arguably its four best players in Andre Branch (85 tackles, 10.5 sacks), Brandon Thompson (77 tackles, 8 for loss), Rennie Moore (58 tackles, 10 for loss) and Coty Sensabaugh (40 tackles, 14 passes defended).
Auburn is 14-1 in its last 15 meetings with Clemson. Clemson has not won back-to-back games against Auburn since the 1950-'51 seasons. Bet Auburn Saturday.
|09-01-12||Florida International v. Duke -3||26-46||Win||100||64 h 26 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Duke -3
I'm not going to say that Saturday's match-up with Florida International is a gimme for Duke, but getting the Blue Devils as only a 3-point home favorite is a gift from oddsmakers. They beat FIU on the road last season 31-27, and should be able to handle the Panthers at home in 2012.
Head coach David Cutcliffe enters his 5th year at Duke and he has clearly made this football program competitive. This will be Cutcliffe's best team yet considering the Blue Devils return 17 starters from last year's team.
The offense brings back eight starters, including QB Sean Renfree, who completed 65.0 percent of his passes for 2,891 yards with 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions last season. Also back are the top three rushers, leading receiver Conner Vernon (70 receptions, 956 yards, six TD), and four starters and 90 career starts along the offensive line.
The defense has an excellent chance to improve with nine starters returning. Nine of Duke's top 10 tacklers are back, and I believe this is going to be the most improved stop unit in the ACC.
Like Duke, FIU returns 17 starters. This is a talented team that is likely going to be the class of the Sun Belt Conference. However, there's no question in my mind that the Blue Devils have the better talent at almost every position, and that will show on the field Saturday.
FIU is 2-8 in its last 10 road openers. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Golden Panthers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. Take Duke Saturday.
|09-01-12||LA Anaheim: E Santana +131 v. Seattle: F Hernandz||5-2||Win||131||5 h 18 m||Show|
15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Angels +131
The Los Angeles Angels are rolling right now, winners of eight of their last 10 overall. This team still has a shot at an AL Wildcard spot and they have been playing like it.
Ervin Santana has pitched well of late, going 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA and 0.984 WHIP in his last three starts.
I know Felix Hernandez has been dominant of late for Seattle, but he's 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA in two starts against Los Angeles this season, allowing nine earned runs and three homers in 13 innings.
The Angels are 16-1 when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Los Angeles Saturday.
|09-01-12||Tulsa v. Iowa State +1.5||Top||23-38||Win||100||61 h 7 m||Show|
25* College Football Season-Opening GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State +1.5
The Iowa State Cyclones represent my favorite bet for Week 1 college football Saturday. They should not be an underdog at home to Tulsa in this one.
Iowa State has been underrated in each of Paul Rhoads' first three years as head coach, making a bowl game in two of them. The Cyclones even pulled off the upset of the season last year when they beat then-No. 2 Oklahoma State 37-31 (2 OT) at home. They are clearly underrated again in 2012.
Iowa State has just 12 starters back, but that includes most of its top plays from a year ago. Leading rusher James White (743 yards, eight TD) is back, and QB Steele Jantz is primed for a big senior year after making seven starts last season. Three of ISU's top four receivers are back as well.
The defense only has five starters back, but the stop unit returns its top three tacklers in LB AJ Klein (116 tackles), LB Jake Knott (115 tackles) and FS Jacques Washington (90 tackles, nine passes defened). Klein earned second-team All-American honors, while Knott was first-team All-Big 12. These are two of the best linebackers in the entire country.
Tulsa is in rebuilding mode now under second-year head coach Bill Blankenship. This is the year where it is going to realize it misses former head coach Todd Graham. QB GJ Kinne, who threw for 3,090 yards and 28 touchdowns and rushed for 405 yards and three scores in 2011, has departed.
The Golden Hurricane also have just two starters back on the offenive line, and new QB Cody Green won't be able to come close to matching Kinne's numbers. The defense loses leading tackler Curnelius Arnick (159 tackles) and leading sacker Tyrunn Walker (41 tackles, 8 sacks).
Tulsa is 4-18 in its last 22 road openers, 1-17 since 1997 on the road vs. BCS schools, and 1-31 over the last 12 years against BCS schools home or away. The Golden Hurricane are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12. The Cyclones are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games in September. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|09-01-12||Ohio v. Penn State -6||24-14||Loss||-110||58 h 37 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Penn State -6
The Penn State Nittany Lions are way undervalued coming into their 2012 campaign due to all of the poor coverage they have been receiving from the Jerry Sandusky scandal. These players cannot wait to hit the field Saturday and put all of it behind them.
The Nittany Lions' fans will rally around these players in a a very emotional game Saturday afternoon. The fact of the matter is that Penn State is still among the top-half of the teams in the Big Ten, and it has a lot more talent on the field than Ohio.
The Nittany Lions gave up just 16.8 points and 324 total yards per game last season, and they still have one of the best defenses in the country. They return leading tackler Gerald Hodges (106 tackles, 10 for loss) at linebacker. Also back is junior LB Glenn Carson (74 tackles) and senior DT Jordan Hill (59 tackles, 8 for loss).
The offense brings back starting quarterback Matt McGloin (,571 yards, eight TD, five INT), as well as three of his top four receivers from last season. Junior RB Curtis Dukes, who averaged 5.8 yards/carry last season, returns as well.
Ohio is a solid team and is one of the favorites to win the MAC this season with 14 starters back. But the fact of the matter is the Bobcats are out-classed in talent all over the field, and that will show Saturday when an inspired Penn State team overmatches them.
The Nittany Lions have won 10 straight home openers by an average of 29 points per game. Penn State is 5-0 all-time against Ohio, winning by an average of 39-13.
This play falls into a system that is 29-7 (80.6%) ATS since 1992. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses against opponent first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 4 or more wins in last 5 games. Take Penn State Saturday.
|09-01-12||Western Michigan +10.5 v. Illinois||7-24||Loss||-110||58 h 37 m||Show|
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Western Michigan +10.5
The Western Michigan Broncos are my pick to win the MAC this season. They have 14 starters back, including senior QB Alex Carder, who completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 3,873 yards with 31 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He is one of the most underrated signal callers in the country.
Western Michigan gave then-No. 24 Illinois all it could handle on the road in 2011. The Broncos lost 20-23 as a 14-point underdog, and Carder threw for 306 yards against their defense. I look for this one to go right down to the wire as well.
The Broncos have nine of their top 10 back along the offensive line. They have four starters returning, including first-team All-MAC RT Dann O'Neill. Leading rusher Tevin Drake (586 yards, 5.6/carry, five TD) is back as well.
The defense returns seven starters, including second-team All-MAC Rover Johnnie Simon (114 tackles, 10.5 for loss, nine passes defended) and second-team All-MAC DE Freddie Bishop (51 tackles, 6.5 for loss, 5.5 sacks).
I am really not high on Illinois at all this season. They lose too many studs, including top running back Jason Ford and top receiver AJ Jenkins (90 receptions, 1,276 yards, eight TD). Their second-leading receiver was Spencer Harris (26, 226, one TD), so they are certainly going to miss Jenkins.
Defensively, the Illini lose two of their top three tacklers in Ian Thomas and Tavon Wilson. They also part ways with the nation's leading sacker in Whitney Mercilus (57 tackles, 16 sacks).
The Fighting Illini are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. MAC. They are consistently overvalued against MAC schools, and the Broncos are the best the MAC has to offer in 2012 in my opinion. Roll with Western Michigan Saturday.
|08-31-12||Arizona Diamondbacks v. Los Angeles Dodgers -110||4-3||Loss||-110||12 h 48 m||Show|
15* DBacks/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -110
The Los Angeles Dodgers should be a much heavier favorite at home tonight. After losing four out of their last five, the Dodgers realize that they need to kick it in gear right now to make a push in the NL West and NL Wildcard races.
Arizona has no shot at making the postseason after losing six of their last seven to drop to 65-67 on the year. They will be starting Trevor Cahill, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in his last three starts. He has given up eight earned runs over 9 innings in his last two outings.
Aaron Harang has been pretty solid all season for Los Angeles, going 9-8 with a 3.70 ERA over 25 starts. The right-hander is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three outings as well. Harang sports a 3.01 ERA and 1.193 WHIP in 14 career starts against Arizona.
The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. Arizona is 1-4 in Cahill's last 5 starts overall. The Dodgers are 36-17 in their last 53 Friday games. After losing seven straight to Arizona, Los Angeles gets is hungry for revenge tonight. Roll with the Dodgers Friday.
|08-31-12||Pittsburgh Pirates +115 v. Milwaukee Brewers||3-9||Loss||-100||10 h 49 m||Show|
15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +115
The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing great value Friday as an underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers. Pittsburgh still has a lot to play for with an NL Wildcard spot on the line over the last month. Milwaukee has nothing to play for at this point.
The Pirates also have the edge on the mound tonight. Jeff Karstens is 5-3 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.120 WHIP in 14 starts, including 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in his last three.
Mark Rogers is 2-1 with a 4.28 ERA in six starts this season for Milwaukee. Karstens has been solid when facing Milwaukee, posting a 3.67 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in nine career starts against the Brewers.
The Pirates are 6-0 in Karstens' last 6 starts vs. National League Central. Pittsburgh is 4-0 in Karstens' last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Pirates Friday.
|08-31-12||Tennessee -3 v. NC State||Top||35-21||Win||100||93 h 17 m||Show|
20* Tennessee/NC State ESPNU Friday No-Brainer on Tennessee -3
After a 5-7 campaign in 2011 with arguably the toughest schedule in the entire country, the Tennessee Volunteers head into 2012 way underrated. That's because they return 18 starters and 48 lettermen from last year's squad.
The offense has nine starters back, led by junior QB Tyler Bray, who missed five starters last season due to injury. Bray still managed to complete 59.5 percent of his passes for 1,983 yards with 17 touchdowns and six interceptions in seven starts.
WR Justin Hunter had 17 receptions for 314 yards and two touchdowns in three starts last year before going out for the season with an injury. He returns healthy and will be the go-to guy after Da'Rick Rogers decided to leave the team. The offensive line returns five starters and 105 career starts from a unit that gave up only 18 sacks a year ago.
Defensively, the Vols held their own last season, giving up 22.6 points and 341 total yards per game against a brutal schedule. Nine starters return, and 2010's No. 2 tackler in senior MLB Herman Lathers is back after missing all of 2011 due to injury.
NC State is getting a lot of love after winning three straight games to close out last season to finish 8-5. But this team isn't nearly as talented as Tennessee with 13 starters and a mere 31 lettermen returning.
The Wolfpack lose three of their top four receivers, including TJ Graham (46 receptions, 757 yards, seven TD). Defensively, only six starters are back, and they lose three of their top players from 2011 in leading tackler Audie Cole (132 tackles, 13.5 for loss), Terrell Manning (82 tackles, 14 for loss, three INT) and Markus Kuhn (50 tackles, 9.5 for loss).
The Vols clearly have the better talent across the board, and on a neutral field Friday, they should roll against the overmatched Wolfpack. Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite, and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 non-conference games. Bet the Volunteers Friday.
|08-30-12||Washington State +13.5 v. BYU||6-30||Loss||-110||72 h 5 m||Show|
15* Washington State/BYU ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +13.5
The Washington State Cougars were much better than their 4-8 record would indicate last season. They actually outgained opponents 422 to 410 on average, which is more like a 7-5 team. The breaks did not go their way, but now they have a proven head coach in Mike Leach to try and turn things around.
Leach put together an 84-43 record in 10 seasons at Texas Tech. He will be working with 14 returning starters and 44 lettermen this season.
The offense returns seven starters, including senior QB Jeff Tuel, who was lost after three games last season with an injury. He made all 12 starts in 2010 and is one of the most underrated signal callers in the country. Also back is leading receiver Marquess Wilson (82 receptions, 1,388 yards, 12 TD) and leading rusher Ricky Galvin (602 yards, 5.3/carry, five TD). Three starters return along the offensive line as well.
The defense has seven starters back, including all four starters in the secondary, led by junior SS Deone Bucannon (80 tackles, three INT) and senior FS Tyree Toomer (60 tackles). Senior OLB Travis Long (42 tackles, 8 for loss, 4 sacks) is their best returning starter among the front seven.
BYU is getting a lot of love from oddsmakers after winning its final four games last season to finish 10-3. Like WSU, the Cougars have 14 returning starters back. This is going to be a solid team, but they are certainly overrated heading into 2012, and not two touchdowns better than Washington State.
Washington State is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. Bet Washington State Thursday.
|08-30-12||Detroit Tigers -118 v. KAN ROYALS||1-2||Loss||-118||19 h 56 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -118
After two straight one-run losses to open this series with the Kansas City Royals, the Detroit Tigers will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep in Game 3 tonight. I believe they get the job done and get back in the win column as they look to make their push for the postseason.
Rick Porcello is not having the best season at 9-9 with a 4.60 ERA in 25 starts. However, he's 5-2 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.254 WHIP in 12 career starts against Kansas City, and he has been much better than his opponent.
Jeremy Guthrie has been one of the worst starters in all of baseball in 2012. The right-hander is 5-11 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 2-6 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in 11 home starts.
Porcello is 11-1 (+9.8 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. Porcello is 9-0 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. He has simply been money in the bank in these two spots. Bet the Tigers Thursday.
|08-30-12||UMass +24.5 v. Connecticut||0-37||Loss||-110||25 h 18 m||Show|
15* CFB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on UMass +24.5
The UMass Minutemen enter their first season as an FBC school in 2012. Because of this fact, I believe they are coming into 2012 obviously underrated. The betting public does not want to back them, but this is a great spot to against the overrated Connecticut Huskies.
Redshirt freshman QB Mike Wegzyn has earned the starting job by clearly outplaying the competition throughout camp. Many bettors are seeing that last year's starter, Kellen Pagel, is out with post-concussion symptoms. But I believe that Wegzyn is the better starter anyway, and even when Pagel returns, he likely will still keep his job.
The Minutemen return 14 starters in all, so this is an experienced bunch. Wegzyn will be working behind an offensive line that returns four starters and 85 career starts. Their starting five up front averages 308 pounds, so they certainly have good size. Michigan transfer Michael Cox takes over at running back and is primed for a big year running behind this line.
The defense has a whopping nine starters back, led by senior MLB Perry McIntyre (116 tackles, 6.5 sacks). Junior OLB Tim Brandt (33 tackles, 3 sacks) and senior OLB Chad Hunte (58 tackles) combine with McIntyre to form one of the most underrated LB corps in the MAC.
Connecticut really misses former head coach Randy Edsall, who always got the most out of his teams. That showed last season as the Huskies stumbled to a 5-7 finish. They do have 14 starters back, but only 31 lettermen returning. I'm just not sold on this team, and there's no way they should be a 24-point favorite in their opener.
The Huskies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Roll with UMass Thursday.
|08-30-12||South Carolina v. Vanderbilt +7||Top||17-13||Win||100||69 h 53 m||Show|
20* South Carolina/Vanderbilt ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Vanderbilt +7
Vanderbilt was much better than its 6-7 record would indicate last season. The Commodores lost five games to Georgia, Arkansas, Florida, Tennessee and Cincinnati all by 7 points or less. Five of their six wins came by 23 points or more.
The Commodores are one of the most underrated teams in the country heading into 2012. They have 15 starters and 43 lettermen returning, so there's a lot of talent back from last year's squad.
The offense welcomes back eight starters, including QB Jordan Rodgers, brother of Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers. They were a much better team when Rodgers took over for the final seven starts of the season. He threw for 1,524 yards and nine touchdowns, while also rushing for 420 yards and four scores.
Leading rusher Zac Stacy (1,193 yards, 5.9/carry, 14 TD) returns to lead the offense, and he'll be running behind an offensive line that returns three starters and 60 career starts. Also back are the top two receivers from 2011 in junior Jordan Mathews (41 receptions, 778 yards, five TD) and sophomore Chris Boyd (31, 473, eight TD).
The defense welcomes back seven starters and should come close to matching its solid 2011 numbers. The Commodores gave up just 21.6 points and 323 total yards per game in head coach James Franklin's first year on the job. He has this team headed in the right direction.
After a setting a school record with 11 wins last year, the No. 9 South Carolina Gamecocks come into the 2012 season overrated. They have just 11 starters back from that squad and several key losses. Leading receiver Alshon Jeffery (49 receptions, 762 yards, eight TD) has moved on to the NFL. DE Melvin Ingram (48 tackles, 10 sacks) and CB Stephon Gilmore (46 tackles, four INT) were each selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. LB Antonio Allen (#1 tackler) was taken in the 7th round as well.
Vanderbilt is a scrappy team that will give South Carolina a run for its money in the opener. The Commodores don't go down easy at home, going a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. Vanderbilt is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games as an underdog as well. Take the Commodores Thursday.
|08-29-12||Washington Nationals -128 v. Miami Marlins||Top||8-4||Win||100||8 h 14 m||Show|
20* NL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals -128
The Washington Nationals have lost five straight games. There's no question they are motivated to get back in the win column Wednesday to put an end to this skid. I have them doing just that against the Miami Marlins tonight.
Ross Detwiler has been one of the most underrated starters in the league this season. The right-hander is 7-6 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in 20 starts and six relief appearances in 2012. He faced Miami on 4/20 this season, pitching six shutout innings in a 2-0 Washington victory.
Detwiler will be opposed by Jacob Turner, who is 1-2 with a 6.87 ERA and 1.528 WHIP in four starts this season. Turner has been at his worst at home, going 1-1 with an 8.03 ERA and 1.946 WHIP in three starts.
Miami is 1-12 as a home underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Washington is 9-1 after scoring 3 runs or less 5 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Detwiler is 8-1 against the money line against division opponents this season. These three trends make for a combined 29-3 (91%) system backing Washington. Bet the Nationals Wednesday.
|08-29-12||New England Patriots -120 v. NY Giants||3-6||Loss||-120||8 h 57 m||Show|
15* Patriots/Giants NFL Preseason BLOWOUT on New England -120
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.
|08-29-12||Atlanta Braves -124 v. San Diego Padres||2-8||Loss||-124||8 h 39 m||Show|
15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -124
The Atlanta Braves are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the San Diego Padres tonight. Atlanta has a lot to play for, while San Diego does not. The Padres had their eight-game winning streak come to an end last night, and now their momentum has been stopped.
Tommy Hanson is 12-6 with a 4.40 ERA this season, including 8-3 with a 4.05 ERA on the road. Hanson has never lost to San Diego, going 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in five career starts against the Padres.
The Braves are 22-7 in their last 29 vs. a team with a losing record. Atlanta is 17-5 in Hanson's last 22 road starts. The Braves are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Roll with Atlanta Wednesday.
|08-28-12||Oakland: T Milone -117 v. Cleveland: Mcallister||Top||7-0||Win||100||8 h 49 m||Show|
20* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -117
The Oakland A's should be a much heavier favorite tonight in this match-up with the Cleveland Indians. Oakland (70-57) still has a lot to play for, while Cleveland (55-73) does not.
Tom Milone is having a solid season this year for the A's, going 10-9 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.187 WHIP over 24 starts.
Cleveland has clearly packed it in, going 1-11 in its last 12 games, and 5-24 in its last 29 games overall.
The A's are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The Indians are 0-9 in their last 9 vs. American League West. Oakland is 7-1 in its last 8 vs. American League Central. Bet the A's Tuesday.
|08-27-12||Los Angeles: J Beckett -152 v. Colorado: J Francis||Top||0-10||Loss||-152||9 h 55 m||Show|
20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -152
The Los Angeles Dodgers bounce back from a loss Sunday and beat the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of this series Monday. Los Angeles (69-59) still has a lot to play for, while Colorado (51-75) has plenty of reason to pack it in.
I know Josh Beckett hasn't been his old self this season, but a switch to the National League could be just what the doctor ordered. Beckett is 5-1 with a 3.48 ERA in seven career starts against Colorado.
He'll be opposed by Jeff Francis, who is 4-4 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.468 WHIP in 16 starts this season. The left-hander has been at his worst at home, going 2-3 with a 6.99 ERA and 1.527 WHIP while averaging just 4.7 innings/start over eight starts.
The Dodgers are 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Francis is 5-20 against the money line vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The Rockies are 11-29 in their last 40 games as a home underdog. Colorado is 26-57 in its last 83 vs. a team with a winning record. The Rockies are 0-4 in Francis' last 4 starts vs. Dodgers. Bet Los Angeles Monday.
|08-26-12||Carolina Panthers +2.5 v. NY Jets||17-12||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
15* Panthers/Jets NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Carolina +2.5
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.
|08-26-12||Miami Marlins v. Los Angeles Dodgers -162||Top||6-2||Loss||-162||5 h 7 m||Show|
20* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on Los Angeles Dodgers -162
The Los Angeles Dodgers are going to roll now that they have one of the best line-ups in baseball. This team is feeling good about themselves with the additions of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, and they'll be tough to beat now.
Aaron Harang is having a solid season at 9-7 with a 3.65 ERA. He has progressively gotten better with each of his last three starts, going 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA.
Mark Buehrle has struggled on the road this season for Miami, going 4-7 with a 4.60 ERA over 12 starts.
The Marlins are 5-21 in their last 26 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200. The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 Sunday games. Los Angeles is 37-14 in its last 51 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Bet the Dodgers Sunday.
|08-25-12||Houston Texans +3 v. New Orleans Saints||Top||27-34||Loss||-110||12 h 17 m||Show|
20* Texans/Saints CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Houston +3
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.
|08-25-12||Washington: G Gonzalez +107 v. Philadelphia: R Halladay||2-4||Loss||-100||11 h 13 m||Show|
15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington Nationals +107
After back-to-back losses for the first time since July 31-August 1, which is a span of 24 games, the Washington Nationals get back on track Saturday with a victory in Game 3 over the Philadelphia Phillies.
Gio Gonzalez has been simply dominant this season, going 16-6 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.161 WHIP over 25 starts. He's 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in his last three starts, and 2-0 with a 0.69 ERA and 0.848 WHIP in two career starts against Philly, both of which have come this season.
Roy Halladay is having a down year for the Phillies, who really have nothing to play for right now. The right-hander is 7-7 with a 3.96 ERA in 2012. Halladay faced the Nationals once this season, giving up five earned runs over six innings of a 5-2 Washington victory.
The Nationals are 16-5 in their last 21 games following a loss. Washington is 5-0 in Gonzalez's last 5 starts as a road underdog. The Nationals are 10-1 in Gonzalez's last 11 road starts. The Phillies are 0-5 in Halladay's last 5 starts vs. National League East. These last three trends make for a combined 20-1 system backing Washington. Bet the Nationals Saturday.
|08-24-12||Atlanta Falcons -3 v. Miami Dolphins||Top||23-6||Win||100||8 h 45 m||Show|
25* NFL Preseason GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons -3
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.
|08-24-12||Kansas City Royals +165 v. Boston Red Sox||3-4||Loss||-100||7 h 24 m||Show|
15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +165
The Kansas City Royals are showing great value tonight as a big road underdog to the Boston Red Sox. Boston (59-66) appears to have packed it in already, losing four straight games coming in.
Kansas City (55-68) continues to fight while making backers a ton of money over the last few weeks. The Royals have won six of their last nine games overall, and they were an underdog in all but three of those contests.
Bruce Chen has pitched well of late, going 2-1 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in his last three starts. Jon Lester has struggled all season, going 7-10 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.357 WHIP in 25 starts, including 2-8 with a 6.83 ERA and 1.616 WHIP in 14 home outings. He has no business being this heavily favored tonight.
Lester is 0-7 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss this season. Lester is 0-7 (-13.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -175 to -200 over the last 2 seasons. Boston is 0-6 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 this season. These three trends make for a perfect 20-0 system that has not lost in 2012. Plus, Kansas City is a very profitable 12-5 (+14.2 Units) as a road underdog of +150 to +175 this season. Roll with the Royals Friday.
|08-24-12||Oakland A's +166 v. Tampa Bay Rays||5-4||Win||166||7 h 24 m||Show|
15* A's/Rays AL Friday No-Brainer on Oakland +166
The Oakland A's (67-57) are still very much alive in the AL Wildcard race. This team continues to get no respect despite being one of the top teams in the American League. This is a huge series for them against the Tampa Bay Rays, and they are showing awesome value in Game 1 tonight.
The A's actually have the edge on the mound, but that isn't reflected with this line, which is the reason for the value. Jarrod Parker is 8-7 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.276 WHIP in 21 starts this season for Oakland, while Matt Moore is 10-7 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.330 WHIP in 24 starts for Tampa.
Moore faced Oakland for the first time in his career earlier this season on May 6th. The left-hander gave up eight earned runs over 4 2/3 innings of a 5-9 home loss to the A's. Tampa Bay is hitting just .226 and scoring 3.8 runs/game at home this season. They certainly should not be this big of a favorite tonight.
Oakland has lost three straight to Tampa Bay, but that just sets them up for one of their best situations. The A's are 8-1 (+8.9 Units) against the money line with triple revenge - 3 straight losses against opponent this season. Oakland is 20-7 in its last 27 games as an underdog. Roll with the A's Friday.
|08-24-12||Washington: E Jackson -117 v. Philadelphia: K Kendrick||Top||2-4||Loss||-117||7 h 10 m||Show|
20* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -117
The Washington Nationals are showing great value as a small road favorite over the Philadelphia Phillies Friday. Washington (77-47) owns the best record in baseball, while Philadelphia (58-67) knows it has no chance of making the postseason.
The Nationals have the edge on the mound in this one behind Edwin Jackson, who is 7-8 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.174 WHIP in 23 starts this season. Kyle Kendrick is 6-9 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.375 WHIP in 17 starts and 12 relief appearances, including 1-5 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.439 WHIP in nine home starts.
Kendrick is 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in 13 career starts against Washington. Kendrick is 0-7 (-8.8 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 3 seasons.
The Nationals are 10-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 39-14 in its last 53 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Nationals are 52-21 in their last 73 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Phillies are 0-4 in Kendrick's last 4 home starts. Bet the Nationals Friday.
|08-24-12||Milwaukee: M Fiers v. Pittsburgh: W Rodriguz -103||6-5||Loss||-103||7 h 10 m||Show|
15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -103
Getting the Pittsburgh Pirates at nearly even money at home tonight is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. Pittsburgh (67-57) is still very much alive in the NL Central and NL Wildcard races, while Milwaukee (57-66) is not.
Michael Fiers got off to a blazing start this season for the Brewers, but he has really cooled off of late. Fiers is 0-2 with a 15.43 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 12 earned runs over seven innings of work.
Wandy Rodriguez has been at his best at home this season, posting a 3.89 ERA over 14 home starts in 2012. Rodriquez is 1-1 with a 1.40 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee, giving up just three earned runs over 19 1/3 innings.
The Brewers are 1-9 in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 this season. Milwaukee is 1-10 in its last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Pirates are 21-6 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take Pittsburgh Friday.
|08-23-12||Jacksonville Jaguars +7 v. Baltimore Ravens||17-48||Loss||-120||9 h 40 m||Show|
15* NFL Thursday Preseason No-Brainer on Jacksonville Jaguars +7
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.
|08-23-12||Los Angeles Angels -106 v. Boston Red Sox||Top||14-13||Win||100||8 h 16 m||Show|
20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -106
The Los Angeles Angels are showing solid value at basically even money against the Boston Red Sox tonight. Los Angeles (64-60) is making its move to try and make the postseason, while Boston (59-65) has already packed it in.
The Angels have the edge on the mound tonight with C.J. Wilson over Franklin Morales. Wilson is 9-9 with a 3.61 ERA over 26 starts, including 6-4 with a 3.49 ERA in 15 road outings. Morales is 3-3 with a 3.98 ERA as a starter, including 2-1 with a 5.28 ERA in three home starts.
Wilson has never lost to the Red Sox, going 4-0 (5-0 on the money line) with a 1.08 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in five career starts against Boston. Bet the Angels Thursday.
|08-22-12||San Francisco: M Cain v. Los Angeles: C Capuano -101||8-4||Loss||-101||11 h 35 m||Show|
15* Giants/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -101
The Los Angeles Dodgers have lost the first two games of this series to the San Francisco Giants. They'll be looking for revenge tonight while also avoiding the series sweep. The Dodgers now trail the Giants by 1.5 games for the NL West lead, so this is clearly a very important game for them.
Chris Capuano has been an excellent addition to Los Angeles' staff in 2012. The left-hander is 11-8 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 25 starts this season. He's been untouchable at home, going 5-4 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.106 WHIP over 12 starts.
Matt Cain has not had much success against the Dodgers, going 3-8 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in 20 career starts against Los Angeles. Capuano has given up four earned runs over 12 1/3 innings in his last two starts against San Francisco.
The Giants are 13-29 in Cains last 42 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 0-4 in Cain's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 7-1 in Capuano's last 8 starts during game 3 of a series. Los Angeles is 5-0 in its last 5 during game 3 of a series. Take the Dodgers Wednesday.
|08-22-12||Houston Astros +250 v. St.Louis Cardinals||2-4||Loss||-100||9 h 45 m||Show|
15* NL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +250
I know the Houston Astros are out of postseason contention, but they are simply showing too good of value to pass up Wednesday. This is still an NL Central rivalry, and Houston would love nothing more than to put a damper on St. Louis' playoff hopes.
For whatever reason, Bud Norris loves facing the Cardinals, and he has been a thorn in their side over the last few years. Norris is 7-3 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 12 career starts against St. Louis. The Astros are 9-3 in those 12 contests.
Houston is 15-6 in road games after allowing 7 runs or more 3 straight games since 1997. The Astros are 8-3 in Norris' last 11 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win. Houston is 5-1 in Norris' last 6 road starts vs. Cardinals. Roll with the Astros Wednesday.
|08-22-12||Los Angeles Angels -118 v. Boston Red Sox||Top||7-3||Win||100||8 h 41 m||Show|
20* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -118
The Los Angeles Angels are showing solid value as a small road favorite over the hapless Boston Red Sox. Los Angeles is still within striking distance of an AL Wildcard berth, and it knows it has to make a move now. Boston (59-64) has clearly already packed it in.
The Angels send ace and AL Cy Young contender Jered Weaver to the mound tonight. The right-hander is 15-3 with a 2.74 ERA and 0.972 WHIP over 22 starts this season. He'll be motivated after his worst start of the year against Tampa Bay last time out, and I look for him to shut down the Red Sox.
The Angels are 8-0 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Los Angeles is 7-0 in its last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Angels are 8-0 in Weaver's last 8 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance. Los Angeles is 7-0 in Weaver's last 7 road starts. These four trends combine for a perfect 30-0 system backing the Angels. Bet Los Angeles Wednesday.
|08-21-12||Pittsburgh: A Burnett -126 v. San Diego: J Marquis||Top||5-7||Loss||-126||13 h 38 m||Show|
20* Pirates/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Pittsburgh -126
The Pittsburgh Pirates (67-55) still have a lot to play for with the NL Central and NL Wildcard races on the line. The San Diego Padres (54-70) are simply playing out their season with nothing to play for the rest of the way.
The Pirates clearly have the edge on the mound tonight with A.J. Burnett. The right-hander has resurrected his career in Pittsburgh, going 15-4 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.186 WHIP over 22 starts this season. The Pirates are 18-4 in those contests.
Jason Marquis is having a terrible year for San Diego. The right-hander is 8-11 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in 22 starts this season. It's amazing that he's still in the big leagues with how much he has struggled in recent years.
Burnett is 11-1 (+9.7 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. Burnett is 8-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. Burnett is 11-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Pirates Tuesday.
|08-20-12||San Francisco: Bumgarner +145 v. Los Angeles: C Kershaw||2-1||Win||145||11 h 4 m||Show|
15* Giants/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco +145
The San Francisco Giants are showing awesome value as a big road underdog to the Los Angeles Dodgers. They have one of the most underrated starters in the league taking the ball tonight.
Madison Bumgarner is 13-7 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.014 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.762 WHIP in his last three. The left-hander has posted similar numbers to Clayton Kershaw, who he'll be facing in this one.
The Giants are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. San Francisco is 21-10 in Bumgarner's last 31 starts. The Dodgers are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. National League West opponents. Los Angeles is 3-9 in its last 12 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Roll with the Giants Monday.
|08-20-12||PHILADELPHIA v. New England Patriots||Top||27-17||Loss||-120||9 h 4 m||Show|
20* Eagles/Pats ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New England PK
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.
|08-19-12||Boston: J Beckett v. New York (A): H Kuroda -161||Top||1-4||Win||100||11 h 37 m||Show|
20* Red Sox/Yankees ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on New York -161
The New York Yankees have a huge edge on the mound tonight, and as a result I'll back them in the rubber match of this series with the Boston Red Sox Sunday night. New York is 71-48 this season, while the Red Sox are 58-62 on the year.
Hiroki Kuroda is 11-8 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.151 WHIP in 24 starts this season, 8-4 with a 2.31 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 14 home starts, and 1-1 with a 1.66 ERA and 1.016 WHIP in his last three outings.
Josh Beckett is 5-10 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.310 WHIP in 20 starts, 3-5 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.367 WHIP in nine road starts, and 0-1 with a 10.38 ERA and 1.615 WHIP in his last three outings. Beckett sports a 5.13 ERA in 30 career starts against Boston.
The Yankees are 14-2 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 this season. The Red Sox are 2-9 in Beckett's last 11 starts. New York is 6-0 in Kuroda's last 6 starts with 4 days of rest. Bet the Yankees Sunday.
|08-19-12||INDIANAPOLIS +4 v. PITTSBURGH||24-26||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
15* Colts/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Indianapolis +4
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.
|08-18-12||Tampa Bay: A Cobb v. LA Anaheim: C Wilson -144||Top||10-8||Loss||-144||22 h 32 m||Show|
25* American League GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Angels -144
After losing the first two games of this series to the Tampa Bay Rays in blowout fashion, the Los Angeles Angels are highly motivated for a win Saturday. I believe they get revenge in Game 3 behind one of the best starters in the league.
C.J. Wilson is 9-9 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.293 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 3-5 with a 3.08 ERA an 1.243 WHIP in 10 home starts. The left-hander is 4-3 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.064 WHIP in eight career starts against Tampa Bay as well.
Alex Cobb, who is 7-8 with a 4.09 ERA in 15 starts this season, is no match for Wilson and the motivated Angels in this one. Cobb is also 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles.
Wilson is 14-2 (+11.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -150 over the last 3 seasons. The Angels are 8-2 in Wilson's last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game. The Rays are 17-37 in their last 54 meetings in Los Angeles. Bet the Angels Saturday.
|08-18-12||Kansas City Chiefs v. St Louis Rams||17-31||Loss||-110||21 h 35 m||Show|
15* NFL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas City Chiefs PK
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.
|08-18-12||NY Giants v. NY JETS||Top||26-3||Loss||-110||19 h 26 m||Show|
20* Giants/Jets Big Apple Beat Down on New York Jets PK
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.
|08-17-12||OAKLAND +4.5 v. ARIZONA||Top||27-31||Win||100||11 h 42 m||Show|
20* Raiders/Cardinals NFL Late-Night BAILOUT on Oakland +4.5
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.
|08-17-12||Cleveland: Mcallister v. Oakland: T Milone -125||4-6||Win||100||10 h 27 m||Show|
15* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -125
The Oakland A's should be a much bigger favorite tonight over the Cleveland Indians. Oakland is right in the thick of the AL Wildcard race at 62-55, while Cleveland (54-64) has little to play for the rest of the way.
The A's have a big edge on the mound behind Tom Milone tonight. The left-hander has been dominant at home, going 5-3 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.921 WHIP over 10 starts. Zach McCallister is 2-2 with a 4.01 ERA in four road starts for Cleveland.
The Indians are 8-24 in their last 32 road games. Cleveland is 1-6 in its last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The A's are 5-0 in their last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Oakland is 18-5 in its last 23 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Indians are 12-26 in the last 38 meetings in Oakland. Bet the A's Friday.
|08-17-12||Pittsburgh Pirates +145 v. St.Louis Cardinals||2-1||Win||145||9 h 46 m||Show|
15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates +145
The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing awesome value tonight as a big road underdog to the St. Louis Cardinals. Pittsburgh is hanging in the NL Central and NL Wildcard races at 65-53 on the season, just ahead of the 64-54 Cardinals.
I believe this is a very evenly-matched game on the mound, and if anything the Pirates have the edge. James McDonald is 10-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.206 WHIP over 23 starts, and Jake Westbrook is 12-8 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.289 WHIP in 23 outings.
The reason I like the Pirates here is the price and the head-to-head numbers between these two. McDonald is 1-1 with a 3.22 ERA in four career starts against St. Louis, while Westbrook is 1-5 with a 5.97 ERA in seven career starts against Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are 25-12 in their last 37 vs. National League Central opponents. The Cardinals are 4-11 in their last 15 Friday games. St. Louis is 1-4 in its last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Pirates Friday.
|08-17-12||Philadelphia Phillies +145 v. Milwaukee Brewers||2-6||Loss||-100||9 h 42 m||Show|
15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +145
The Philadelphia Phillies are showing solid value as a big road underdog to the Milwaukee Brewers. Neither of these teams has a whole lot to play for, and knowing that this is a pretty evenly matched game on the mound, I certainly like the big dog in this spot.
In fact, if anything I'd give the edge to the Phillies considering how well Vance Worley has pitched on the road. Worley is 4-3 with a 2.59 ERA in nine road starts this season. Yovani Gallardo is 11-8 with a 3.78 ERA in 24 starts, and 6-3 with a 3.40 ERA in 13 home starts.
Worley is 16-2 (+13.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Worley is 10-1 (+8.5 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. Worley is 7-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Phillies Friday.
|08-16-12||CINCINNATI +4.5 v. Atlanta Falcons||Top||24-19||Win||100||22 h 32 m||Show|
20* Bengals/Falcons FOX Thursday No-Brainer on Cincinnati +4.5
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason
|08-16-12||Chicago (A): F Liriano -133 v. Toronto: A Laffey||7-2||Win||100||7 h 58 m||Show|
15* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -133
The Chicago White Sox lead the AL Central division at 64-52 on the season. This is a much better team than it gets credit for, and I have them taking Game 4 of this series against the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.
Toronto has lost 13 of 17 to fall to 55-62 on the season and out of the AL Wildcard race. This team is not in a good state of mind right now, and they are still without their best player, Jose Bautista.
I'll gladly fade Aaron Laffey of the Blue Jays. The left-hander is 3-3 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.423 WHIP as a starter this season, including 1-2 with an 8.81 ERA and 1.775 WHIP in his last three starts.
The White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Chicago is 36-17 in its last 53 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Blue Jays are 0-7 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, and 0-5 in Laffey's last 5 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the White Sox Thursday.
|08-15-12||Texas Rangers +113 v. New York Yankees||2-3||Loss||-100||10 h 30 m||Show|
15* Rangers/Yankees ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Texas +113
After losing the first two games of this series to the New York Yankees, the Texas Rangers will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 tonight. I like their chances to get it with the edge they have on the mound in this one.
Scott Feldman is 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA over his last four starts, yielding just two home runs in the process. Freddy Garcia has struggled most of the year for New York, going 4-5 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in 12 starts this season.
Garcia has really struggled inside hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, going 2-3 with a 7.33 ERA and 1.885 WHIP. He has allowed 19 earned runs and 44 base runners over 23 1/3 innings at home in 2012.
Texas is 9-0 (+9.3 Units) against the money line revenging 2 straight losses where team scored 2 or less runs over the last 2 seasons. Feldman is 7-0 (+8.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 in his career. Roll with the Rangers Wednesday.
|08-15-12||Oakland A's -115 v. Kansas City Royals||Top||2-3||Loss||-115||9 h 51 m||Show|
20* MLB Wednesday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Oakland A's -115
After getting shut out by the lowly Kansas City Royals yesterday, the Oakland A's are going to come back extra motivated tonight. They are right in the thick of the AL Wildcard race at 61-54, and this game is much more meaningful to them than the Royals (50-65).
Brandon McCarthy is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. The right-hander is 6-3 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.202 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.650 WHIP in his last three.
Will Smith has been atrocious this season for Kansas City, going 3-4 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in eight starts. He's 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA and 1.860 WHIP in three home starts this year as well.
The A's are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series. Oakland is 7-1 in McCarthy's last 8 starts. The A's are 5-0 in McCarthy's last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Royals are 4-11 in their last 15 games following a win. Bet the A's Wednesday.
|08-15-12||Chicago (A): G Floyd -104 v. Toronto: R Romero||9-5||Win||100||8 h 41 m||Show|
15* AL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -104
At 63-52 and in first place in the AL Central by two games, the Chicago White Sox have a lot to play for right now. The same cannot be said for the 55-61 Toronto Blue Jays, who remain without their best player, Jose Bautista.
Gavin Floyd has been respectable this season at 8-9 with a 4.43 ERA in 21 starts. Ricky Romero has taken a big step back this season for Toronto, going 8-9 with a 5.33 ERA in 24 starts.
In his last start against Toronto on July 7th, Floyd pitched 7 2/3 of shutout ball while allowing just six base runners in a 2-0 Chicago victory.
The White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Chicago is 35-17 in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The Blue Jays are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Toronto is 1-8 in Romero's last 9 starts overall. Take the White Sox Wednesday.
|08-14-12||Washington: Zimmermann v. San Francisco: Bumgarner -119||Top||1-6||Win||100||10 h 17 m||Show|
20* Nationals/Giants NL Late-Night BAILOUT on San Francisco -119
After getting embarrassed 14-2 at home in Game 1 of this series to the Washington Nationals last night, I have the San Francisco Giants bouncing back with a blowout victory in Game 2 Tuesday. The Giants will be extra motivated to revenge that loss.
San Francisco sends arguably its best starter to the mound tonight. Madison Bumgarner is 12-7 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.034 WHIP in 23 starts this season, including 7-1 with a 1.98 ERA and 0.908 WHIP in 10 home starts. The Giants are 8-2 in those 10 contests in 2012.
The Giants are 7-0 in Bumgarner's last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. San Francisco is 6-0 in Bumgarner's last 6 Tuesday starts. The Giants are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. These three trends make for a 17-0 system backing San Francisco. Bet the Giants Tuesday.
|08-14-12||Oakland A's -110 v. Kansas City Royals||0-5||Loss||-110||8 h 21 m||Show|
15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Oakland A's -110
At 61-53 on the season, the Oakland A's are right in the thick of the Wildcard race. They'll certainly be more motivated for a win tonight than the Kansas City Royals, who are just 49-65 on the year and in last place in the AL Central.
The biggest reason for this play is the huge edge that the A's have on the mound. Jarrod Parker is 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.294 WHIP in 19 starts, while Jeremy Guthrie is 4-11 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.646 WHIP in 19 starts.
Guthrie is also 1-6 with an 8.87 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in nine home outings. The right-hander is 2-4 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in eight career starts against Oakland as well.
Guthrie is 0-8 (-8.6 Units) against the money line against AL West opponents over the last 2 seasons. The A's are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Oakland is 22-7 in its last 29 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the A's Tuesday.
|08-14-12||Texas: M Harrison +134 v. New York (A): H Kuroda||0-3||Loss||-100||7 h 6 m||Show|
15* Rangers/Yankees AL Tuesday No-Brainer on Texas +134
The Texas Rangers are showing arguably their best value of the season tonight against the New York Yankees. Rarely will you ever get the two-time defending AL champs at this kind of price, and I'm going to take advantage tonight. They'll be very motivated after losing Game 1 of this 4-game set to the Yankees last night.
At 13-6 with a 3.31 ERA in 22 starts this season, Texas starter Matt Harrison is one of the most underrated hurlers in the game. The left-hander is 9-3 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.270 WHIP in 13 road starts this year.
In his last two starts against New York, Harrison has allowed just three earned runs over 14 innings for a 1.93 ERA. Hiroki Kuroda has never beaten Texas, going 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in two career starts against the Rangers.
The Rangers are 45-13 in their last 58 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Texas is 45-16 in its last 61 games following a loss. The Rangers are 20-7 in Harrison's last 27 road starts. The Yankees are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series, and 0-5 in Kuroda's last 5 starts during game 2 of a series. Roll with the Rangers Tuesday.
|08-13-12||Dallas Cowboys +1 v. OAKLAND||Top||3-0||Win||100||9 h 19 m||Show|
20* Cowboys/Raiders ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Dallas +1
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.
|08-13-12||Chicago (A): J Peavy -121 v. Toronto: Villanueva||2-3||Loss||-121||8 h 24 m||Show|
15* AL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago White Sox -121
The Chicago White Sox (62-51) sit two games ahead of the Detroit Tigers for the AL Central division lead. This team continues to exceed expectations, and they are reasonably priced once again tonight against the struggling Toronto Blue Jays (54-60).
Toronto has lost five of its last six, and 11 of 14 overall. This team really misses its best hitter in Jose Bautista, who remains on the DL with a wrist injury. The Blue Jays have scored four or fewer runs in 12 of their last 14, including three or less in 10 of those contests.
Jake Peavy is 9-8 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.067 WHIP in 22 starts this season, including 4-5 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 11 road starts. The right-hander has never lost to Toronto, going 2-0 (4-0 on the money line) with a 4.00 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in four career starts against the Blue Jays.
The White Sox are 23-10 in their last 33 games as a road favorite. Chicago is 6-1 in Peavy's last 7 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Blue Jays are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. Toronto is 0-5 in Carlos Villanueva's last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Bet the White Sox Monday.
|08-12-12||Atlanta: B Sheets -109 v. New York (N): J Niese||Top||5-6||Loss||-109||9 h 16 m||Show|
20* Braves/Mets ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Atlanta -109
The Atlanta Braves are showing great value as a small road favorite over the New York Mets Sunday night. The Braves (66-47) are still in the hunt for the NL East division lead, plus they are in great position to make a Wildcard.
The New York Mets (54-60) have basically played themselves out of postseason contention since the All-Star Break. They have little reason to be motivated right now, and that has shown recently. They've lose the first two games of this series while scoring a combined three runs. The Mets have lost five of six while scoring 3 runs or less in all five losses.
Ben Sheets has been a savior in Atlanta. The veteran right-hander is 4-1 with a 1.41 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in five starts, including 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA in two home outings.
The Braves are 24-8 in their last 32 overall. Atlanta is 5-0 in its last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Mets are 1-10 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record. New York is 0-8 in its last 8 games as a home underdog. Bet the Braves Sunday.
|08-11-12||Tampa Bay Rays v. Minnesota Twins +173||4-2||Loss||-100||17 h 46 m||Show|
15* AL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Minnesota Twins +173
The Minnesota Twins are a pesky team that is not going to give in until their season's over. You can always count on them to bring their best effort to the park day in and day out. Minnesota has won five of its last seven games to prove that.
The Tampa Bay Rays are 1-3 in David Price's four career starts against Minnesota. The Twins are hitting .289 and scoring 4.9 runs/game at home this year, so they obviously love Target Field.
Price is just 9-13 (-14.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 13-37 (-25.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse since 1997. Price is 0-5 (-8.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. Take the Twins Saturday.
|08-11-12||HOUSTON +3 v. CAROLINA||Top||26-13||Win||100||17 h 37 m||Show|
20* NFL Preseason Saturday No-Brainer on Houston Texans +3
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason
|08-11-12||Milwaukee: M Estrada v. Houston: D Keuchel +162||5-6||Win||162||17 h 31 m||Show|
15* NL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +162
The Milwaukee Brewers have no chance to make the playoffs at 51-59 this season. They should not be this big of a road favorite against the Houston Astros Saturday. They are disinterested and won't be up for this series.
Dallas Kuechel has been at his best at home this season for Houston. He's 1-1 with a 3.33 ERA in four home starts in 2012. Marco Estrada has been at his worst on the road for Milwaukee. He's 0-3 with a 4.97 ERA in five road starts this year.
The Brewers are 0-5 in Estrada's last 5 road starts. Milwaukee is 0-8 in its last 8 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Brewers are 0-5 in their last 5 Saturday games. These three trends make for an 18-0 system working in Houston's favor. Plus, the Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the Astros Saturday.
|08-10-12||CLEVELAND +3 v. Detroit Lions||Top||19-17||Win||100||8 h 49 m||Show|
25* NFL Preseason Week 1 GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns +3
No Write-ups for NFL Preseason.
|08-10-12||St.Louis Cardinals v. Philadelphia Phillies -121||1-3||Win||100||8 h 43 m||Show|
15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -121
You would never have gotten the Philadelphia Phillies at this kind of price with Roy Halladay on the mound last year. As a result of the Phillies' slow start, this team is showing great value at this time of year, especially tonight.
Even at 5-6 with a 4.02 ERA and 1.121 WHIP in 15 starts this season, Halladay remains one of the best starters in the game. He pitched seven shutout innings of 3-hit ball his last turn in a 3-0 home victory over Arizona.
Halladay is 3-3 with a 2.81 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in seven career starts against St. Louis. Kyle Lohse is 3-5 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 12 career starts against Philly.
Philly is 9-1 against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more this season. Halladay is 23-5 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997. The Cardinals are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a right-handed starter. St. Louis is 0-4 in its last 4 games as a road underdog. Philly is 7-0 in its last 7 games as a home favorite. Bet the Phillies Friday.
|08-09-12||Washington: Zimmermann v. Houston: L Harrell +165||5-0||Loss||-100||9 h 38 m||Show|
15* NL Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Astros +165
The Washington Nationals have won the first three games of this series with Houston by exactly one run each. I look for the Nationals to be disinterested tonight as they've already won the series, so they'll suffer a letdown here. Houston will be motivated to avoid the series sweep.
With Lucas Harrell on the mound, the Astros have an excellent chance to win this game at a great price. Harrell is 9-7 with a 3.98 ERA in 22 starts this season, 6-1 with a 2.02 ERA in nine home starts, and 2-0 with a 2.41 ERA in his last three outings.
Jordan Zimmerman has never beaten Houston, going 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in three career starts against the Astros. In his lone career start against Washington on April 18th, Harrell allowed just one run over 6 2/3 innings for a 1.35 ERA.
Houston is a very profitable 10-5 (+7.6 units) in home games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season. The Astros are 5-2 in Harrell's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Astros Thursday.
|08-09-12||GREEN BAY +1 v. SAN DIEGO||Top||13-21||Loss||-110||9 h 33 m||Show|
20* Packers/Chargers ESPN Preseason No-Brainer on Green Bay +1
No Write-up for Preseason Games.
|08-09-12||Kansas City: W Smith +169 v. Baltimore: W Chen||8-2||Win||169||8 h 37 m||Show|
15* AL Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Kansas City Royals +169
The Kansas City Royals have won six of their last nine games overall, proving that they're not going to pack it in. That's impressive considering six of those games came against Texas and Chicago, which are two teams leading their respective divisions.
I look for the Royals to play the role of spoiler against Baltimore tonight behind Will Smith. The left-hander is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.285 WHIP in his last three starts. He's 2-1 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.164 WHIP in four road starts this season.
The Royals are a very profitable 11-3 (+14.5 Units) as a road underdog of +150 to +175 this season. Kansas City is 7-2 in its last 9 vs. American League East opponents. Roll with the Royals Thursday.
|08-08-12||Colorado: J Francis +195 v. Los Angeles: Billingsly||4-6||Loss||-100||10 h 24 m||Show|
15* Rockies/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado +195
Despite their poor record, the Colorado Rockies have shown they aren't going to quit playing. After winning the first two games of this series against Los Angeles while allowing a total of just one run in the process, the Rockies look for the sweep tonight.
At 7-9 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in 21 starts this season, Los Angeles starter Chad Billingsley is certainly getting too much respect tonight. Billingsley is 2-4 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.474 WHIP in 10 home starts. The right-hander is 3-7 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.657 WHIP in 14 career starts against Colorado.
Jeff Francis has been tremendous in night games this season. The Rockies are a very profitable 8-2 (+9.2 units) in Francis' 10 night starts in 2012. The left-hander is 5-4 with a 3.33 ERA in 16 career starts against Los Angeles as well.
The Rockies are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Colorado is 5-1 in Francis' last 6 road starts. The Rockies are 5-1 in Francis' last 6 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Dodgers are 5-18 in their last 23 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Los Angeles is 7-19 in its last 26 games following a loss. The Dodgers are 17-35 in their last 52 Wednesday games. Los Angeles is 0-5 in its last 5 vs. NL West opponents. Roll with the Rockies Wednesday.
|08-08-12||Arizona: I Kennedy v. Pittsburgh: K Correia +129||Top||6-7||Win||129||7 h 29 m||Show|
20* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates +129
The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing great value as a home underdog to the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday. At 62-47 on the season, this team is the real deal with an excellent chance to win the NL Central or an NL Wildcard berth.
Kevin Correia (8-6, 4.49) is slated to get a spot start Wednesday after being removed from the rotation following the acquisition of Wandy Rodriguez from the Astros last month. The right-hander was switched to the bullpen despite going 6-0 with a 3.89 ERA in his last seven starts. He's out to prove he belongs tonight.
The Pirates are 23-7 in their last 30 home games. Pittsburgh is 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog. The Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 Wednesday games, and 5-0 in Correia's last 5 starts. Bet Pittsburgh Wednesday.
|08-08-12||Atlanta: T Hudson v. Philadelphia: K Kendrick +134||12-6||Loss||-100||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* NL Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia Phillies +134
The Philadelphia Phillies hate the Atlanta Braves being NL East rivals. That's why they are not taking this series lightly despite the fact that things have not gone their way this season. The Phillies are showing awesome value as a home underdog in this one.
Kyle Kendrick has posted a 3.91 ERA in eight home starts this season, and a 3.50 ERA in his last three starts overall. Kendrick is 5-1 with a 2.31 ERA in 11 career starts against Atlanta. In his last two starts against the Braves, Kendrick has pitched 12 shutout innings while allowing only eight base runners. He clearly loves facing this team.
The Phillies are 41-14 in their last 55 Wednesday games. Philly is 7-2 in its last 9 home games. Atlanta didn't have a single extra-base hit against Philly last night on a 0-3 loss, and I look for Kendrick to shut down this weak Braves line-up once again tonight. Take the Phillies Wednesday.
|08-07-12||LA Anaheim: C Wilson -137 v. Oakland: B Colon||Top||4-10||Loss||-137||10 h 8 m||Show|
20* Angels/A's AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -137
The Los Angeles Angels have a big edge on the mound tonight with C.J. Wilson over Bartolo Colon. Coming off his worst start of the season at Texas, Wilson will be highly motivated to dominate this weak A's line-up Tuesday.
The left-hander is 9-7 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.252 WHIP in 23 starts this year. He has owned Oakland, going 5-3 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in 10 career starts against the A's. In his last start at Oakland on May 22nd, Wilson pitched eight shutout innings of one-hit ball in a 5-0 Angels victory.
Colon is 2-6 with a 4.50 ERA in 11 home starts in 2012. That's pretty poor considering he throws in a pitcher-friendly park. Colon gave up four runs and 12 hits over 6 2/3 innings in his last start against the Angels, which resulted in a 4-0 victory for Los Angeles on May 15th.
Wilson is 21-5 (+13.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 6-0 in Wilson's last 6 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Los Angeles is 5-1 in its last 6 meetings in Oakland. Bet the Angels Tuesday.
|08-07-12||Texas Rangers v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9.5||6-3||Loss||-109||7 h 22 m||Show|
15* Rangers/Red Sox AL Tuesday No-Brainer on OVER 9.5
The Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox have two of the best line-ups in baseball. They should have no problem combining to score double-digit runs to push this one OVER the number Tuesday.
Ryan Dempster has to hate the switch to the American League. In his first start with Texas on August 2nd, Dempster allowed eight earned runs and 12 base runners over 4 2/3 innings of a 15-9 loss to the Los Angeles Angels. He'll get rocked by Boston tonight, too.
Jon Lester is simply having an awful year, and he's showed no signs of turning it around. The left-hander is 5-9 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.407 WHIP in 22 starts, 2-7 with a 6.96 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in 13 home starts, and 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in his last three outings.
Dempster is 10-1 to the OVER when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. The OVER is 13-4-3 in Rangers last 20 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. The OVER is 37-13-5 in Red Sox last 55 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The OVER is 5-0 in Lester's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The OVER is 4-0-2 in the last 6 meetings in Boston. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|08-07-12||Arizona: P Corbin v. Pittsburgh: J Karstens -116||10-4||Loss||-116||7 h 8 m||Show|
15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -116
The Pittsburgh Pirates continue to lack the respect they deserve at this point of the season despite their 62-46 record. They are in excellent position to either win the NL West or an NL Wildcard spot. This team is the real deal, and they've learned from last season's second-half collapse.
After three straight losses while scoring a combined four runs in the process, Arizona (55-54) realizes its chances of making the postseason are pretty slim right now. The Pirates have a big edge on the mound in this one, which is the main reason for this pick.
Jeff Karstens is 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in 10 starts this year. He has been untouchable at home, going 2-0 with a 0.43 ERA and 0.857 WHIP over three starts. Pat Corbin is 3-3 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in six starts this season, including 2-2 with a 5.57 ERA and 1.571 WHIP in four road starts.
Karstens is 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.739 WHIP in four career starts against Arizona. The Pirates are 23-5 in their last 28 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Pittsburgh is 24-6 in its last 30 games as a favorite. The Pirates are 4-0 in Karstens' last 4 starts as a favorite. Roll with Pittsburgh Tuesday.
|08-06-12||New York Yankees +1.5 v. Detroit Tigers||Top||2-7||Loss||-128||8 h 45 m||Show|
25* AL Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on New York Yankees +1.5 (-128)
The New York Yankees are showing awesome value on the run line tonight against the Detroit Tigers. I'll take the extra run at a great price on the team with the best record in baseball. New York is 63-44 on the season.
Ivan Nova has been at his best on the road this year for the Yankees. The right-hander is 7-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 12 road starts this season, and the Yankees are 10-2 in those contests.
Justin Verlander is one of the league's best, but he has struggled of late. The right-hander is 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA over his last two starts, yielding nine runs, seven earned, and 20 base runners over 12 innings. Verlander is 5-4 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.524 WHIP in 15 career starts against New York.
This play falls into a system that is 41-10 (80.4%) against the run line since 1997. It tells us to bet on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+165 to -135) (NY YANKEES) - after allowing 3 runs or less 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 8 runs or more. Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Monday.
|08-05-12||ARIZONA +3 v. NEW ORLEANS||10-17||Loss||-120||10 h 5 m||Show|
15* Cardinals/Saints NFL Preseason No-Brainer on Arizona +3
No Write-ups for preseason NFL
|08-05-12||Miami Marlins v. Washington Nationals -228||Top||1-4||Win||100||5 h 33 m||Show|
20* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -228
Rarely will I ever lay this much juice, but the Washington Nationals are worth it Sunday behind ace Stephen Strasburg. Washington (64-43) continues to win without any signs of slowing down. Miami (49-59) has little to play for at this point of the season and it will have a hard time getting motivated the rest of the way.
Strasburg is 11-5 with a 3.12 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in 21 starts this season with a ridiculous 154 strikeouts in 121 1/3 innings. The flame-throwing right-hander is 3-1 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.990 WHIP in six career starts against Miami.
He'll be up against Ricky Nolasco, who is 8-10 with a 4.90 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in 21 starts this year. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 7.72 ERA and 1.776 WHIP in his last three starts as well.
The Marlins are 0-6 in Nolasco's last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Miami is 0-4 in Nolasco's last 4 starts overall. The Nationals are 5-0 in Strasburg's last 5 Sunday starts. Take this combined 15-0 system straight to the bank today. Bet the Nationals Sunday.
|08-04-12||New York Mets +130 v. San Diego Padres||6-2||Win||130||9 h 42 m||Show|
15* NL Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New York Mets +130
The New York Mets should not be an underdog today to the San Diego Padres. San Diego is just 45-63 on the season and they should never be a favorite.
The Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Padres are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win. Take the Mets Saturday.
|08-04-12||Baltimore Orioles +130 v. Tampa Bay Rays||Top||4-0||Win||130||7 h 18 m||Show|
20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baltimore Orioles +130
The Baltimore Orioles are showing excellent value Saturday. They'll crush the Tampa Bay Rays due to their edge on the mound.
Wei-Yin Chen is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He's 9-6 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.216 WHIP in 21 starts this year.
The Orioles are 4-1 in Chens last 5 starts as an underdog. Bet the Orioles Saturday.
|08-04-12||Houston Astros +190 v. Atlanta Braves||3-2||Win||190||7 h 16 m||Show|
15* NL Saturday Sleeper on Houston Astros +190
The Houston Astros are showing such great value this time of year because of their tough start. No team gets motivated to face them, so it's a huge letdown spot for the opposing team.
Lucas Harrell has been great of late, going 1-1 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in his last three starts. He has allowed just four earned runs over 19 2/3 innings over this span.
Atlanta is just 32-31 (-33.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game in the second half of the season since 1997. The Braves are also 40-50 (-25.6 Units) against the money line after allowing 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Astros Saturday.
|08-03-12||Toronto: B Cecil +140 v. Oakland: D Straily||4-5||Loss||-100||10 h 4 m||Show|
15* AL Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto Blue Jays +140
The Toronto Blue Jays are showing great value as an underdog to the Oakland A's. Oakland is way overvalued right now with the run they've been on, and now is the time to fade.
The Blue Jays are 12-3 in Brett Cecil's last 15 Friday starts. The A's are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a favorite, and should not be favored tonight. Take the Blue Jays Friday.
|08-03-12||Los Angeles Angels -138 v. Chicago White Sox||Top||6-8||Loss||-138||8 h 20 m||Show|
25* AL Non-Divisonal GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Angels -139
The Los Angeles Angels are showing great value Friday as a small road favorite over the Chicago White Sox. They have a huge edge on the mound in this one, and as a result I'll back them.
Zach Greinke is 9-4 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 22 starts this season. Chicago's Philip Humber is 5-5 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.458 WHIP in 15 starts this year, including 0-3 with a 6.93 ERA and 1.726 WHIP in seven home starts.
The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series. Los Angeles is 12-3 in its last 15 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The White Sox are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Chicago is 0-7 in Humber's last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Angels Friday.
|08-03-12||Baltimore Orioles +160 v. Tampa Bay Rays||0-2||Loss||-100||7 h 17 m||Show|
15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Baltimore Orioles +160
The Baltimore Orioles are showing great value tonight as a big underdog to the Tampa Bay Rays. Matt Moore has not been as dominant as everyone said he would be this season, yet he's still overrated right now.
Moore is 7-7 with a 4.01 ERA and 1.378 WHIP through 20 starts, putting him at the middle of the pack in terms of starting pitchers. He should not be this heavily favored Friday against a Baltimore (55-50) team that has been underrated all year.
The Orioles are 6-1 in Hunters last 7 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200. Baltimore is 4-1 in its last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 11-3 in their last 14 games following an off day, and 7-2 in their last 9 road games. The Rays are 2-9 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Roll with the Orioles Friday.
|08-02-12||St.Louis Cardinals -142 v. Colorado Rockies||Top||2-8||Loss||-142||9 h 17 m||Show|
20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -142
This is a huge motivational and mound mismatch tonight working in St. Louis' favor. The Cardinals have played themselves right back into the NL Central and NL Wildcard races by winning nine of their last 12 games overall.
Colorado (37-65) has nothing to play for the rest of the way. The Rockies have showed signs of packing it in recently while losing five straight, and 11 of their last 13 games overall. I would not back this team with my money right now.
Lance Lynn is one of the most underrated starters in the game. The right-hander is 13-4 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.240 WHIP in 20 starts this season. He faced Colorado on July 5th, pitching six shutout innings of a 6-2 Cardinals victory.
Alex White has struggled all season for the Rockies. He is 2-6 with a 6.44 ERA and 1.664 WHIP in 10 starts this year, including 0-2 with a 9.57 ERA and 2.708 WHIP in his last three. He'll be up against a St. Louis line-up that has scored a combined 20 runs over the last two days.
The Cardinals are 13-1 in Lynn's last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Colorado is 0-7 in home games after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more runs over the last 2 seasons. St. Louis is 5-0 in its last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Rockies are 0-7 in their last 7 vs. National League Central. Colorado is 0-4 in White's last 4 starts. These five trends make for a 36-1 system backing St. Louis. Bet the Cardinals Thursday.
|08-02-12||Miami Marlins +166 v. Atlanta Braves||1-6||Loss||-100||8 h 22 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Miami Marlins +166
The Miami Marlins are finally starting to show some signs of life. They have won three of their last five games overall, including a 4-2 victory over Atlanta yesterday. The price is right on Miami Thursday considering they have the edge on the mound in this one.
The Marlins received Nathan Eovaldi from the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Hanley Ramirez trade. He's going to be a good one, and he has pitched pretty well this year. Eovaldi sports a 3.94 ERA in 11 starts, including a 3.07 ERA in his last three. In his last two starts, the right-hander has allowed two earned runs over 9 2/3 innings.
Mike Minor has struggled most of the season for Atlanta. The left-hander is 6-7 with a 5.18 ERA, giving up a whopping 22 homers and 42 walks over 113 innings. Eovaldi gave up one earned run over six innings in a 2-1 victory at Atlanta in his lone career start against the Braves. Minor is 1-2 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.531 WHIP in six career starts against Miami.
The Marlins are 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter. The Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 4 of a series. Atlanta is 1-4 in Minor's last 5 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Roll with the Marlins Thursday.
|08-02-12||Philadelphia: C Hamels v. Washington: R Detwiler -109||0-3||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on Washington Nationals -109
After back-to-back losses to the Philadelphia Phillies, I have the Washington Nationals bouncing back with a victory at home tonight. Philly traded away arguably its two best hitters in Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino, leaving an already weak line-up even weaker. The Phillies will make for good fade material the rest of the way.
Ross Detwiler has been every bit as good as Cole Hamels this season. Detwiler is 5-4 with a 3.24 ERA in 15 starts and six relief appearances this year, including 1-1 with a 2.42 ERA over his last three starts.
Hamels is 11-5 with a 3.31 ERA in 20 starts, and 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA in his last two. He has given up 10 runs, 8 earned, 23 base runners and 4 homers over 12 2/3 innings in back-to-back losses to Atlanta and San Francisco.
Detwiler is 9-1 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 0-6 in Hamels' last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 0-5 in Hamels' last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5, and 0-4 in Hamels' last 4 starts vs. National League East. These four trends make for a 24-1 system backing Washington. Take the Nationals Thursday.
|08-01-12||Detroit Tigers v. Boston Red Sox -104||Top||7-5||Loss||-104||8 h 39 m||Show|
20* Tigers/Red Sox ESPN No-Brainer on Boston Red Sox -104
I have now cashed in the Boston Red Sox for four straight days during their 4-game winning streak. They took two out of three over the weekend from the New York Yankees, giving them the series win they needed to get some confidence. Boston has carried that momentum into this series with Detroit, winning the first two.
I believe they cap off the series sweep tonight behind Aaron Cook. The veteran right-hander has been a solid addition to the rotation, posting a 4.50 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in seven starts this season. He has only given up 41 hits and four walks over 40 innings pitched.
Rick Porcello has struggled this season for Detroit, posting a 4.56 ERA and 1.513 WHIP in 20 starts. He has allowed 147 hits and 29 walks in 116 1/3 innings pitched. Porcello has never beaten Boston, going 0-2 (0-3 on the money line) with a 10.80 ERA and 2.041 WHIP in three career starts against the Red Sox.
The Tigers are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Boston is 18-6 in its last 24 vs. American League Central, and 9-4 in its last 13 during game 3 of a series. The Tigers are 24-51 in the last 75 meetings, including 16-40 in their last 56 meetings in Boston. Bet the Red Sox Wednesday.