|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-30-12||Pittsburgh: J Mcdonald +165 v. Atlanta: M Minor||9-3||Win||165||8 h 29 m||Show|
15* NL Monday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +165
This is an excellent price to back the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight against the Atlanta Braves. Pittsburgh sends underrated hurler James McDonald to the mound in a match-up with Mike Minor that is much more evenly-matched than this line would indicate.
In fact, you could argue that McDonald is the better starter. The righty has posted a 2.78 ERA and 1.015 WHIP through four starts while allowing just seven earned runs and 23 base runners over 22 2/3 innings. Minor sports a 3.42 ERA and 0.987 WHIP through four starts.
McDonald is 2-0 with a 0.98 ERA and 1.255 WHIP in three career starts against Atlanta, all of which have occurred over the last two seasons. He has given up just two earned runs and 23 base runners while striking out 18 over 18 1/3 innings in his career against the Braves.
Pittsburgh is 18-10 (+16.2 Units) against the money line revenging a one run loss to opponent over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are 17-9 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss by 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons.
Pittsburgh is 6-0 in their last 6 games following a loss. The Braves are 0-7 in their last 7 Monday games. The Pirates are 4-0 in McDonald's last 4 Monday starts. These three trends make for a 17-0 system backing the underdog Pirates. Roll with Pittsburgh Monday.
|04-29-12||Tampa Bay: D Price v. Texas: D Holland -128||5-2||Loss||-128||10 h 37 m||Show|
15* Rays/Rangers ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Texas -128
The Texas Rangers are showing tremendous value as a small home favorite over the Tampa Bay Rays Sunday night. I'll gladly back them at this price almost every single time, especially with underrated starter Derek Holland on the mound.
Holland is 17-3 against the money line in home games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse since 1997. Texas is 44-16 against the money line after batting .290 or better over a 20 game span over the last 2 seasons. Take the Rangers Sunday.
|04-29-12||Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -4.5||Top||88-103||Win||100||5 h 3 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -4.5
The Los Angeles Lakers are getting no respect in their Game 1 showdown with Denver. As only a 4.5-point home favorite, I'll pull the trigger on the Lakers. This is one of the best teams in the league when they want to be, and they own the Denver Nuggets.
The Lakers are 29-5 against the Nuggets at home since 1996. The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games this season. Bet the Lakers Sunday.
|04-28-12||Washington Nationals -114 v. Los Angeles Dodgers||3-4||Loss||-114||13 h 12 m||Show|
15* Nats/Dodgers NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington Nationals -114
You will rarely get Stephen Strasburg at this kind of price. I'm going to take advantage Saturday as home-field advantage means nothing in baseball.
Strasburg is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 0.920 WHIP through four starts this season. He didn't give up an earned run in his lone career starts against the Dodgers.
The Nationals are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Washington is 6-0 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series. The Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Washington is 6-0 in Strasburg's last 6 road starts. The Nationals are 7-0 in Strasburgs last 7 starts as a road favorite. This makes for a 32-0 system backing Washington. Roll with the Nationals Saturday.
|04-28-12||Orlando Magic +9.5 v. Indiana Pacers||81-77||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9.5
The Orlando Magic are getting no love from oddsmakers tonight because they don't have Dwight Howard. As a result, the Magic are showing tremendous value in Game 1.
The Magic have been playing without him long enough that they know how to. This team is getting written off heading into the playoffs because they don't have Howard, and I believe they use it as motivation.
The Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Central. The 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Orlando is 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Pacers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite. Indiana is way overvalued here. Take Orlando Saturday.
|04-28-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Chicago Bulls -8.5||Top||91-103||Win||100||5 h 58 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -8.5
Evan Turner of the Philadelphia 76ers has been calling out the Chicago Bulls as they're the team they wanted to face. I believe the Bulls make a statement Saturday with a double-digit blowout victory in Game 1.
The Bulls are 26-7 at home this season, while the 76ers are 16-17 on the road. That includes an 89-80 home victory for the Bulls in their most recent meeting on March 17th.
The 76ers are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Philly is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. Bet Chicago Saturday.
|04-27-12||Pittsburgh Pirates +175 v. Atlanta Braves||1-6||Loss||-100||11 h 0 m||Show|
15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Pittsburgh Pirates +175
The Pittsburgh Pirates are showing their best value of the season tonight as a huge road underdog to the Atlanta Braves. Quietly, Pittsburgh has gone 5-3 over the last eight games despite being an underdog in all eight contests.
A.J. Burnett is going to love his move to the National League this season as he gets away from the deadly AL East division. Burnett dominated in his first start, pitching 7 shutout innings while allowing just five base runners and striking out seven in a 2-0 victory over St. Louis on April 21st.
Tommy Hanson is a quality starter, but he should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. He has posted a 3.37 ERA this season, and a 3.75 ERA in two career starts against Pittsburgh. I believe this is a very evenly-matched game on the mound, so I'll back the Pirates at a great price.
Pittsburgh is 9-2 against the money line in road games after 5 or more consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. The Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Take the Pirates Friday.
|04-27-12||DET TIGERS -123 v. New York Yankees||6-7||Loss||-123||11 h 31 m||Show|
15* Tigers/Yankees AL Friday No-Brainer on Detroit -123
Rarely every will you get Ace Justin Verlander at this good of a price. The New York Yankees are getting too much respect tonight because they are playing at home. However, home-field advantage matters very little in baseball unlike other sports.
After winning the AL Cy Young and the AL MVP Award last season, Verlander has come back very strong again this year. Detroit's Ace is 2-1 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.798 WHIP in four starts while striking out 31 batters in 31 1/3 innings.
Ivan Nova gets way too much respect simply because he pitches in New York. He has a good record over the last few years, but his numbers really haven't been that impressive. Off four straight losses, I like Detroit's bats to come alive in this one while Verlander shuts down the Yankees.
The Tigers are 14-3 in their last 17 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Detroit is 41-13 in Verlander's last 54 starts as a favorite, including a perfect 9-0 in Verlander's last 9 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Tigers Friday.
|04-27-12||LA Anaheim: J Weaver -135 v. Cleveland: J Mastersn||Top||2-3||Loss||-135||10 h 21 m||Show|
20* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -135
Rarely ever will you get Ace Jered Weaver at this good of a price. The Cleveland Indians are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight because they are playing at home. Baseball is a sport where home-field advantage means very little.
Weaver has been one of the best starters in the game over the last few years, and he's off to a fast start this season. Weaver is 3-0 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.775 WHIP through four starts. Justin Masterson, his counterpart, is 0-2 with a 6.65 ERA and 1.615 WHIP through four starts.
After a slow start, which includes three straight losses, I believe the Angels are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight. This is one of the best teams in the league, and time will tell.
The Angels are 42-16 in Weaver's last 58 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Indians are 6-21 in their last 27 games as a home underdog, and 0-4 in Masterson's last 4 starts as an underdog. Bet the Angels Friday.
|04-26-12||Boston Red Sox +110 v. Chicago White Sox||10-3||Win||110||9 h 1 m||Show|
15* Red Sox/White Sox AL Thursday No-Brainer on Boston +110
Chicago White Sox starter Philip Humber is coming off the 21st perfect game in MLB history. Now, after such a remarkable accomplishment, it's only human nature for Humber to have a letdown in his next start. Plus, he's not facing the Seattle Mariners this time.
The Boston Red Sox are finally back on track after sweeping a 3-game set in Minnesota the last three days. Boston scored a combined 24 runs in the series, or an average of 8.0 runs/game. The Red Sox are now hitting .291 and scoring 5.5 runs/game this year.
Felix Doubront has pitched well in three starts for Boston. While he doesn't have a decision yet, Doubront has posted a 3.94 ERA while striking out 20 batters in 16 innings. Humber went 1-1 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in two starts against Boston last year, giving up eight earned runs in 12 1/3 innings.
The Red Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. The White Sox are 0-5 in Humber's last 5 starts vs. American League East. Chicago is 1-7 in Humber's last 8 home starts. Roll with the Red Sox Thursday.
|04-26-12||New York Knicks v. Charlotte Bobcats +4||Top||104-84||Loss||-110||9 h 48 m||Show|
25* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Bobcats +4
The New York Knicks don't seem overly concerned about where they start their postseason regardless of the outcome of their regular-season finale. The Charlotte Bobcats, however, have plenty of incentive to win Thursday night to avoid capping an utterly miserable and potentially record-setting season of futility.
The Knicks will play either the Bulls or Heat in the first round of the playoffs pending the outcome of this game, and they really don't care who. "Right now it really doesn't matter," Knicks star Carmelo Anthony said. "Whoever we play, we'll have to start on the road anyway, so we just want to start just preparing for whether it's Chicago, whether it's Miami, just get ready to go."
New York clearly does not care about the outcome of this game considering they are resting Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler, Amar'e Stoudemire, Baron Davis and Jared Jeffries. Also, Jeremy Lin remains out with a knee injury. Without these six players, you could argue that Charlotte will actually have more talent on the floor tonight.
This play falls into a system that is 54-26 (67.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs (Charlotte) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days. The Bobcats are the team with something to play for tonight, and that's why I'm backing them. Bet Charlotte Thursday.
|04-26-12||New Jersey Nets +8 v. Toronto Raptors||67-98||Loss||-110||8 h 55 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8
The Toronto Raptors are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. Both the New Jersey Nets and the Raptors are struggling down the stretch, and this line has clearly been inflated. New Jersey has lost five in a row while Toronto has dropped four straight.
The Nets will be playing mostly players that are trying to prove that they belong in the league. They are also trying to play for a roster spot next season. There's no question that New Jersey will be playing inspired basketball tonight because of the players they'll have on the floor.
New Jersey is 14-4 ATS after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Nets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Toronto is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Nets Thursday.
|04-25-12||Los Angeles Clippers +4 v. New York Knicks||Top||93-99||Loss||-110||9 h 13 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Clippers +4
While the Los Angeles Clippers lost to the Atlanta Hawks last night, they still have something to play for. Los Angeles can no longer win the Pacific Division, or the No. 3 seed in the West. However, the Clippers are still battling Memphis for the No. 4 seed.
That means home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs is at stake, which is huge. Los Angeles would get the No. 4 seed with either a win over New York tonight, or a Grizzlies loss to the Orlando Magic tomorrow night. The Clippers certainly want to just take care of business tonight and not leave it in Memphis' hands.
While New York mathematically is still alive for the No. 6 seed in the East, they realize their chances are slim to none. The Knicks would need to go 2-0 the rest of the way while the Magic would have to go 0-2. Fat chance considering the Magic play the Bobcats tonight and are a 14.5-point favorite. New York isn't nearly as concerned about winning this game as Los Angeles is.
The road team has won five of the last seven meetings in this series. Blake Griffin has scored 65 points and grabbed 21 rebounds in two career games against the Knicks. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
|04-25-12||Seattle: F Hernandz v. Detroit: A Wilk -108||9-1||Loss||-108||8 h 53 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -108
Felix Hernandez is one of the best starters in baseball. However, he plays on one of the worst teams in the league, and he's constantly overvalued as a result. I'll gladly back the Detroit Tigers at this generous price at home tonight.
The Tigers are going to be highly motivated for a win tonight considering they've lost four of their last five overall. Starter Adam Wilk has been respectable in two starts this season against the Rangers and White Sox. He has posted a 4.00 ERA while allowing four earned runs in 9 innings.
Detroit is 21-7 against the money line after having lost 3 of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. The Mariners are 4-10 in Hernandez's last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 2-5 in his last 7 starts overall, and 0-5 in his last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
The Tigers are 43-12 in their last 55 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Detroit is 22-5 in their last 27 during game 2 of a series. The Tigers are 8-1 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Detroit is 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Tigers Wednesday.
|04-24-12||Phoenix Suns +5 v. Utah Jazz||Top||88-100||Loss||-106||11 h 13 m||Show|
20* Suns/Jazz TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix +5
The Phoenix Suns should not be a 5-point underdog to the Utah Jazz tonight. This is a game that I believe Phoenix wins outright. The Suns have the more veteran team with playoff experience that will shine through in this elimination game.
If Phoenix wins Tuesday, it would lock up the eighth seed with either a victory over West-leading San Antonio on Wednesday or a Utah loss versus Portland the following night. A Phoenix loss tonight and the Suns would be eliminated from the playoffs, giving the Jazz the No. 8 spot.
This is one team that the Suns clearly match up well against. Phoenix is a perfect 7-0 in their last seven meetings with Utah. That includes four straight wins at Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake City. Three of those four road victories came by double-digits.
Utah is 1-10 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Phoenix is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Suns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss. The Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Throw in the fact that the Suns are 7-0 in the last 7 meetings and we have a combined 42-2 System backing Phoenix. Bet the Suns Tuesday.
|04-24-12||Philadelphia Phillies -108 v. Arizona Diamondbacks||8-5||Win||100||10 h 17 m||Show|
15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -108
The Philadelphia Phillies are hungry for a win following three consecutive losses. They scored 5 runs in the 9th inning last night in a 9-5 loss to Arizona which could give them some much-needed confidence at the plate heading into this one.
Philly will start one of the most underrated starters in the league tonight. After going 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.230 WHIP with 119 strikeouts in 131.2 innings last year, Vance Worley has gone 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.316 WHIP in three starts this season. He simply gets overlooked in this dominant Phillies rotation that features Halladay, Hamels and Lee.
Josh Collmenter has been in a funk in the early going for Arizona. Collmenter is 0-1 with a 10.22 ERA and 1.703 WHIP through three starts this season. He has given up 14 earned runs, 4 home runs and 21 base runners in 12 2/3 innings.
Arizona is 5-20 against the money line after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more runs over the last 3 seasons. The Phillies are 64-29 in their last 93 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Philly is 47-19 in their last 66 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Phillies are 6-0 in Worley's last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Philly is 8-2 in Worley's last 10 road starts. Take the Phillies Tuesday.
|04-24-12||Toronto: H Alvarez -115 v. Baltimore: T Hunter||1-2||Loss||-115||8 h 42 m||Show|
15* AL East GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Blue Jays -115
The Toronto Blue Jays have been one of the best teams in the league in the early going thanks to a potent line-up and solid starting pitching. I believe the Blue Jays have the edge on the mound and at the plate tonight in this Game 1 showdown with AL East rival Baltimore.
Henderson Alvarez is one of the most underrated starters in the league this season. He's getting his first real chance to start from Opening Day and he is certainly making the most of it. Alvarez is 0-1 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.035 WHIP, allowing just 20 base runners in 19 1/3 innings.
Tommy Hunter gets the ball for the Orioles, and I expect him to continue to struggle in this one. Hunter is 1-1 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three starts this season. He has already allowed 6 home runs in 18 2/3 innings.
Hunter gave up 5 runs, 4 earned, and 4 homers in 6 innings against Toronto on April 13th. Alvarez allowed just 3 earned runs and 7 base runners in 7 innings against the Orioles the following day on April 14th. Alvarez is now 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in three career starts against Baltimore, while Hunter is 1-3 with a 7.40 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in seven career starts against Toronto.
The Blue Jays are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Toronto is 13-3 in their last 16 games as a road favorite. The Orioles are 28-59 in their last 87 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Blue Jays are 48-23 in the last 71 meetings with the Orioles. Roll with the Blue Jays Tuesday.
|04-23-12||Houston Astros v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5||5-6||Loss||-100||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+104)
Zach Greinke has been on an unbelievable home run since coming to Milwaukee last season. The Brewers will try to win their 18th consecutive game at Miller Park when Greinke starts as they open a series with the Houston Astros on Monday night.
Greinke will make his first home start against the Astros (6-10) after going 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts in Houston last season - his first with Milwaukee. Since joining the club, the 2009 AL Cy Young winner is 12-0 with a 2.89 ERA in 17 starts at Miller Park. It's the longest home winning streak in the majors.
Greinke is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two home starts this season. Greinke is 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 1.238 WHIP in three career starts against Houston. Lucas Harrell has posted a 4.22 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in two road starts this season for the Astros.
Greinke is 19-0 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. His teams are winning by an average score of 5.6 to 3.0 in this spot. I like the Brewers to win by multiple runs over the lowly Astros behind Greinke in this one. Take Milwaukee on the Run Line Monday.
|04-23-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. New Jersey Nets +9.5||Top||105-87||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New Jersey Nets +9.5
The New Jersey Nets are showing solid value as a 9.5-point home underdog to the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. I believe this line has been inflated due to the fact that Philly can clinch a playoff spot with a win. New Jersey does not want to see them do it on their home floor, so I look for the Nets to put up a good fight here.
The Nets have shown they aren't going to quit by winning six of their last 13 games overall. They have played six straight playoff contenders, including Philadelphia twice. They split both meetings with the 76ers, and this team is certainly battle-tested right now.
Philly has not handled the pressure of trying to make the playoffs very well at all. The 76ers have lost seven of their last 11 games overall. While Philadelphia looks to the future, New Jersey (22-42) will honor its past in its final home game in the Garden State after 35 years. They'll be moving to Brooklyn next year, so the Nets certainly want to finish a winner in their final home game in New Jersey.
The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The 76ers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Bet New Jersey Monday.
|04-21-12||Atlanta Braves -120 v. Arizona Diamondbacks||3-2||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -120
The Atlanta Braves have simply been rolling. This team has gotten over their September collapse, and their slow start to this season. Atlanta is feeling good right now, and I'm backing them again tonight because of it.
Atlanta is 9-1 in their last 10 games overall. The Braves have the edge on the mound once again tonight with Tommy Hanson over Joe Saunders. Hanson is 33-24 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in 80 career starts. Saunders sports a 4.11 ERA and 1.369 WHIP in 163 career starts.
The Braves are 8-0 in their last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Atlanta is 7-0 in Hanson's last 7 starts vs. National League West. The Braves are 4-0 in Hanson's last 4 starts as a road favorite. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. These four trends make for a 24-0 system backing the Braves. Take Atlanta Saturday.
|04-21-12||Denver Nuggets v. Phoenix Suns -4||Top||118-107||Loss||-105||7 h 20 m||Show|
20* Suns/Nuggets ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Phoenix -4
The Phoenix Suns would be the No. 8 seed if the season were to end today. They are tied with ninth-place Utah at 33-30, but own the tiebreaker. Obviously, tonight's game against the Denver Nuggets is huge for Phoenix.
The Suns have been great since the All-Star Break, posting a 19-10 record. That includes a 12-3 mark at home. They showed great resiliency two nights ago as they trailed the Clippers most of the way, but found a way to win 93-90 in the end. That win gives this team a lot of confidence going forward.
Phoenix has won 12 of their last 13 home games against Denver. The Nuggets only have one win in Phoenix since 2004, so home-court advantage has obviously been huge in this series. The Suns are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Bet Phoenix Saturday.
|04-21-12||Texas Rangers G1 v. Detroit Tigers G1 -105||10-4||Loss||-105||9 h 31 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -105 (Game 1)
Off an embarrassing 10-3 home loss to the Texas Rangers Thursday, I have the Detroit Tigers bouncing back with a blowout victory of their own Saturday. While the Rangers had the advantage on the mound Thursday, I believe the Tigers have a huge edge on the bump tonight.
Detroit starter Rick Porcello had an excellent spring training, and he's carried over that success into the regular season. Porcello is 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA and 0.886 WHIP through two starts this season, allowing just three earned runs and 13 base runners in 14 2/3 innings.
While Matt Harrison is off to a solid start this year for Texas as well, he has never fared well against the Tigers. Harrison is 0-4 with a 6.82 ERA and 2.021 WHIP in six career starts against Detroit. Plus, he has never faces a Tigers line-up as potent as the 2012 version.
Porcello is 16-3 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. The Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 games as a road underdog. The Tigers are 54-25 in their last 79 home games vs. a left-handed starter, including 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a South Paw. Detroit is 22-4 in their last 26 during Game 2 of a series. Take the Tigers Saturday.
|04-20-12||Philadelphia: C Hamels -135 v. San Diego: E Volquez||4-1||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia Phillies -135
I'm siding with the Philadelphia Phillies once again Friday against one of the worst teams in baseball. This is a very reasonable price to back an Ace like Cole Hamels, who will shut down the struggling San Diego Padres tonight.
San Diego is off to a 3-11 start this season while hitting .213 and scoring just 3.4 runs/game. Things aren't going to get any better with Edinson Volquez on the mound. Volquez is 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in three starts this season, and he just hasn't been able to break through in the majors.
Hamels is a proven winner who went 14-9 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in 31 starts last season. He is off to a decent start this year, going 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA and 1.217 WHIP. Hamels has owned San Diego, going 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.827 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Padres. He has given up one earned run over 24 innings in his last three starts in this series.
The Phillies are 50-22 in Hamels' last 72 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Philly is 7-1 in Hamels' last 8 starts vs. National League West. The Padres are 17-42 in their last 59 games as an underdog. The Phillies are 25-4 in the last 29 meetings in San Diego. Roll with Philadelphia Friday.
|04-20-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 203||Top||97-121||Loss||-110||10 h 30 m||Show|
20* Lakers/Spurs ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UNDER 203
The Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs will be playing for a 3rd time in 10 days Friday. The familiarity between these teams is through the roof right now, which should lead to a defensive battle tonight. Both teams will be bringing the intensity on defense considering this is an important game for both squads.
San Antonio is trying to fend off Oklahoma City for the No. 1 seed in the West. Los Angeles is trying to stay in front of the L.A. Clippers for the Pacific Division title, and the No. 3 seed in the West. Kobe Bryant is expected to return tonight for L.A., so I look for the Lakers to slow it down and try to run their offense through him.
These teams always seem to play in low-scoring affairs when they get together. Twelve straight meetings between the Lakers and Spurs have seen 203 or less combined points. In fact, 23 of the last 24 meetings between these teams have seen 203 or less combined points. That makes for 23-1 and 12-0 systems backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set, which is currently up to 204 at most books. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|04-19-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns UNDER 198||Top||90-93||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
25* Clippers/Suns NBA PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Phoenix -2/UNDER 198
While I am taking Phoenix to cover the spread tonight, there's no question that both teams will be tired in this one. I just think that the Suns have the extra motivation they need to play through the tiredness, plus they are the deeper team so they'll handle this situation better.
Both Phoenix and Los Angeles will be playing the second of a back-to-back, and their 3rd game in 4 days. This will certainly hurt the Clippers more as their bench is much thinner than that of the Suns. Given the circumstance, I have no doubt that these teams will take part in a defensive battle as points are hard to come by.
The UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. That includes 3-0 in the first three meetings this season where these teams have combined for 159, 178 and 189 points, respectively. Given what's at stake, I fully expect both teams to be laying it all on the line defensively.
The UNDER is 14-2 in Suns last 16 Thursday games. The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 4-0 in Suns last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. As previously state, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. These four trends make for a 28-2 (93%) System backing the UNDER. Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.
|04-19-12||Los Angeles Clippers v. Phoenix Suns -2||Top||90-93||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
25* Clippers/Suns NBA PARLAY OF THE YEAR on Phoenix -2/UNDER 198
I'm siding with the Phoenix Suns tonight in a game that is much more important for them than it is for the Los Angeles Clippers. While the Clippers are only worried about playoff positioning after already clinching their spot, the Suns are still trying to earn a spot in the postseason.
Phoenix is currently in ninth place in the Western Conference standings, just a half-game behind the Utah Jazz for the 8th and final spot. To say this is a must-win would be an understatement. Phoenix has handled the pressure well, going 18-10 since the All-Star break, which includes an 11-3 home record.
The Clippers have basically been a punching bag for the Suns in recent years. Phoenix has won 13 of the last 15 meetings in this series. The Suns have won nine straight home meetings with the Clippers as well. They have not lost a home game against L.A. since 2007. Bet the Suns Thursday.
|04-19-12||Philadelphia: V Worley -119 v. San Diego: J Wieland||2-0||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
15* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -119
I'll gladly back the Philadelphia Phillies as a small road favorite over the lowly San Diego Padres. Once again, Philly starter Vance Worthy is not getting the respect he deserves this season simply because the Big 3 of Halladay, Lee and Hamels get all of the attention.
Worley went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.230 WHIP while striking out 119 batters in 131.2 innings for the Phillies last season. He was one of the most profitable pitchers in baseball to back last year, and he will be again this season if he continues to go under the radar like this.
Worley is off to a respectable start this season with a 3.75 ERA through two starts. The same cannot be said for San Diego starter Joe Wieland, who gave up 6 earned runs and 3 homers over 5 innings in a 1-6 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in his first outing.
The Phillies are 38-15 in their last 53 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Philly is 4-0 in Worley's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. San Diego is 17-41 in their last 58 games as an underdog. The Phillies are 24-4 in the last 28 meetings in San Diego. Roll with the Phillies Thursday.
|04-18-12||Cincinnati Reds v. St.Louis Cardinals -121||1-11||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -121
The St. Louis Cardinals have picked up right where they left off last season. St. Louis is 8-3 this season and on a mission to prove that they can still be a contender without Albert Pujols. I'll back them as a small home favorite here tonight against the Cincinnati Reds.
Cincinnati made the postseason two years ago, but they just haven't been the same team since. The Reds are off to a 4-7 start this season due to poor hitting. Cincinnati is batting .205 and scoring 2.9 runs/game, while St. Louis is hitting .293 and putting up 5.4 runs/game.
Cincinnati starter Mat Latos is 0-1 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.758 WHIP in two starts this season. Latos is 1-2 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.101 WHIP in three career starts against the Cardinals. He has given up 15 earned runs and 22 base runners over 5 1/3 innings in his two starts at St. Louis.
Jaime Garcia remains one of the most underrated starters in the game. Garcia is 6-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.313 WHIP in eight career starts against Cincinnati. He has given up just six earned runs over 24 2/3 innings in his four home starts against the Reds. The Cardinals are 4-0 in those four games, so they have never lost when Garcia starts at home vs. Cincinnati. Roll with the Cardinals Wednesday.
|04-18-12||New York Knicks v. New Jersey Nets +8.5||Top||104-95||Loss||-107||8 h 56 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on New Jersey Nets +8.5
The New Jersey Nets are showing solid value tonight as an 8.5-point home underdog to the New York Knicks. I believe the New York Knicks are in for a big letdown tonight after their 118-110 win over the Boston Celtics last night.
New Jersey has shown that they are going to play out their season. The Nets have gone a respectable 7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They nearly beat the Miami Heat on Monday, losing 98-101 despite playing without Deron Williams.
New York was fired up to face Boston last night after having struggled mightily against the Celtics in the past. The Knicks hit a ridiculous 19-of-32 (59.4 percent) from 3-point range, and still only won by eight points. There's no way they shoot that well on consecutive nights.
The Knicks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games as a road favorite. The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. New Jersey is going to have no problem getting up to face their crosstown rivals. Bet the Nets Wednesday.
|04-18-12||Chicago Bulls -12 v. Charlotte Bobcats||100-68||Win||100||7 h 25 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -12
Following a very bad loss to the Washington Wizards on Monday, the Chicago Bulls will bounce back with a blowout victory over the NBA's worst team in the Charlotte Bobcats. Whether or not Derrick Rose plays tonight the Bulls are going to run away with this one.
Chicago still has a lot to play for as they want to clinch the No. 1 seed in the East. They also want the No. 1 overall seed in the league, so they're not about to take the Bobcats lightly. The Bulls took care of business in their last meeting with Charlotte on February 10th as they rolled to a 95-64 road victory.
The Bobcats are just 7-53 on the season and it's clear by watching them that they simply don't have the talent to compete in this league. Charlotte is 0-17 SU & 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Not only do they not have the talent, but the Bobcats have packed it in.
The Bulls are 8-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. Charlotte is 0-8 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points this season. The Bobcats are 0-7 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These four trends make for a 28-0 system backing Chicago. Take the Bulls Wednesday.
|04-17-12||San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 199.5||Top||112-91||Loss||-110||11 h 27 m||Show|
25* Spurs/Lakers TNT TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Spurs/Lakers UNDER 199.5
I have the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs playing part in a defensive battle tonight. These teams match up very well against one another defensively, and that has certainly been proven throughout the years.
Eleven straight meetings between the Lakers and Spurs have seen 197 or less combined points. In fact, 22 of the last 23 meetings between these teams have seen 199 or less combined points. That makes for 22-1 and 11-0 systems backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.
The Lakers are likely to be without Kobe Bryant again tonight. Without Bryant on the floor, the Lakers certainly struggle offensively. They also try and slow down their offense and run it through their two big men in Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. This slows the tempo and makes for more of a half-court game.
Los Angeles just beat San Antonio 98-84 on the road on April 11th for 182 combined points. The Spurs are 82-47 to the UNDER revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite since 1996. The Lakers are 9-1 to the UNDER versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The UNDER is 20-6 in Spurs last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 20-6 in Lakers last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is also 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in this series. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|04-17-12||San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies -115||3-5||Win||100||9 h 21 m||Show|
15* NL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -115
The Colorado Rockies are showing perhaps their best value of the season tonight as a small home favorite over the lowly San Diego Padres. While Colorado is the sleeper in the NL West, there's no question that San Diego will be the bottom feeder this season.
Jamie Moyer continues to give his team a chance to win almost every time he takes the ball even at age 49. Moyer has posted a respectable 4.22 ERA through two starts this season. I'll take my chances with Moyer over the unproven Anthony Bass, who the Rockies should crush tonight.
Moyer is 7-4 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.209 WHIP in 13 career starts against San Diego. In his last two starts against the Padres, Moyer has gone 2-0 while allowing just 2 earned runs and 13 base runners in 16 innings.
Moyer is 35-10 (+20.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=38%) since 1997. Moyer is 76-29 (+28.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. The Padres are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win. Roll with the Rockies Tuesday.
|04-17-12||Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 v. Detroit Pistons||77-116||Loss||-107||8 h 16 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the "under the radar" teams that I have been following quite a bit to end the season. This team has proven that they aren't going to pack it in. The Cavaliers have several players right now who are trying to prove they belong in the NBA, while also auditioning for a spot on Cleveland's roster come next season.
The Cavaliers have gone a very profitable 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. Detroit has gone 1-5 SU & 3-3 ATS in their last six games overall, and the Pistons should not be this heavily favored tonight. Off a heartbreaking overtime loss to Chicago, Detroit is in for a letdown in this spot.
It was easy for the Pistons to get up emotionally to face the Bulls, but it won't be so easy to get mentally prepared to face the Cavaliers. It's simply human nature for a team to give it their all against another team that is going to be in the playoffs. It's also human nature for a team like the Pistons to not get up emotionally to face a squad like the Cavaliers, who will not be making the playoffs.
Detroit is 33-57 ATS in home games off a loss against a division rival since 1996. Cleveland is 10-1 ATS in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.
|04-16-12||Baltimore Orioles v. Chicago White Sox -119||10-4||Loss||-119||10 h 59 m||Show|
15* AL Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -119
The Chicago White Sox are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Baltimore Orioles tonight. Chicago is playing very well right now, winning four of their last five which includes a series win over the Detroit Tigers over the weekend.
Philip Humber is coming off a very solid 2011 campaign in which he went 9-9 with a 3.75 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in 26 starts for the White Sox. Humber sports a 4.15 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in two career starts against Baltimore.
In three big league seasons, Baltimore starter Jake Arrieta is 17-14 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.449 WHIP in 42 career starts. Arrieta is 1-1 with a 7.00 ERA and 1.889 WHIP in two career starts against the White Sox, allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 9 innings of work.
Baltimore is 11-32 against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Orioles are 1-6 in Arrieta's last 7 starts as an underdog. The White Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss. Chicago is 19-8 in their last 27 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Take the White Sox Monday.
|04-16-12||Washington Wizards v. Chicago Bulls -12.5||Top||87-84||Loss||-110||10 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -12.5
The Chicago Bulls should roll at home tonight over the lowly Washington Wizards. While the Wizards are 14-46 on the season, the Bulls are 46-14 and looking to clinch the No. 1 seed in the East as quickly as possible. Plus, they are also after the No. 1 overall seed in the NBA, so they'll certainly be motivated.
While Chicago has a lot still to play for, the Wizards appear to have packed it in. They lost at New York 65-103 on Friday, followed by an 89-98 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday. The nature of both of those losses shows that the Wizards have basically quit trying.
Derrick Rose will be making his 3rd consecutive start for Chicago since returning from injury. He had 24 points and 9 assists against the Pistons last night, and I believe Rose will be even more comfortable while having an even bigger game tonight.
Chicago has won seven straight over Washington, and three of their last four victories have come by 14 points or more. The Wizards are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Washington is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Monday games. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Southeast foes. Bet Chicago Monday.
|04-16-12||New Orleans Hornets v. Charlotte Bobcats +6.5||75-67||Loss||-110||9 h 44 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Charlotte Bobcats +6.5
There's no question that the Charlotte Bobcats have been the worst team in the league this season. However, there comes a time when you just have to back them because you cannot pass up on the value they're showing. That's the case tonight as a 6.5-point home underdog to the New Orleans Hornets.
New Orleans has picked up some big wins of late, but that's the reason they are overvalued in this spot. The Hornets are still just 18-42 on the season, and they have no business being this heavily favored on the road. Off three straight home wins over the Kings, Jazz and Grizzlies, the Hornets are in for a huge letdown tonight.
The Hornets are 0-8 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans is 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season. The Hornets are 2-20 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival since 1996. Roll with the Bobcats Monday.
|04-15-12||LA Anaheim: J Williams +165 v. New York (A): I Nova||5-11||Loss||-100||10 h 36 m||Show|
15* Angels/Yankees ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +165
Rarely ever will you get the Los Angeles Angels at this price in any game this season. I'm going to take full advantage Sunday night knowing that this is one of the best teams in the league, and they should not be this big of an underdog to the New York Yankees.
I look for L.A. starter Jerome Williams to build off of his strong finish from last season. Williams allowed just 1 earned run and 11 hits over 12 2/3 innings in his final two starts in September last year. This guy is better than he's getting credit for from oddsmakers.
The Angels are 6-1 in Williams' last 6 starts. The Yankees are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. The Angels are 4-0 in their last 4 games with Jim Joyce behind home plate. The Yankees are 0-4 in their last 4 Sunday games with Joyce behind home plate. This is too good of a price to pass up. Roll with the Angels Sunday.
|04-15-12||Dallas Mavericks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 190.5||Top||108-112||Loss||-119||5 h 58 m||Show|
20* Mavs/Lakers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 190.5
The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers will play part in a defensive battle tonight. This will be their 4th meeting this season, with two of the first three meetings seeing 143 and 187 combined points.
Kobe Bryant is doubtful for Los Angeles with a shin injury, which means points will be harder to come by for the Lakers. It also means that they will slow down the tempo and look to get the ball inside to Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol in what will be a half-court game. The Lakers are 3-0 to the UNDER in their last three games without Bryant.
These are two of the better defensive teams in the league. The Mavericks give up just 93.7 points/game this season, while the yield 94.7 points/game, including 91.1 points/game at home. Dallas is only scoring 93.4 points/game on the road. These teams would have to average 95.5 points tonight for this game to go OVER, and I don't see either topping 95.
The UNDER is 6-1 in Lakers last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. The UNDER is 17-5 in Lakers last 22 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. The UNDER is 10-4 in Mavericks last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|04-15-12||DET TIGERS -105 v. Chicago White Sox||5-2||Win||100||4 h 51 m||Show|
15* AL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -105
After losing the first two games of this series to the Chicago White Sox, I look for the Detroit Tigers to bounce back with a win to salvage the series. Detroit will be the more motivated team in this one, and I just don't believe the White Sox can contain their bats for a 3rd straight day.
Rick Porcello is carrying over his excellent spring into the regular season. Porcello gave up just two earned runs and eight base runners over 7 innings in a 5-2 home victory over the Tampa Bay Rays in his first start of the year. He has given up 3 earned runs or less while going at least 6 2/3 innings in each of his last three starts against Chicago, all Detroit wins.
Porcello is 11-2 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. Porcello is 8-0 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Detroit is 5-0 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. These last three trends make for a perfect 20-0 system backing Detroit. Take the Tigers Sunday.
|04-14-12||Indiana Pacers v. Milwaukee Bucks -3||Top||105-99||Loss||-103||10 h 16 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3
The Milwaukee Bucks simply have to win tonight if they want any chance of making the playoffs. Milwaukee (29-30) is two games behind both New York and Philadelphia for the final two playoff spots in the East. There's no question Milwaukee will be motivated at home tonight against the Pacers.
Indiana can can almost relax now considering they are in great position to take the No. 3 seed in the East. The Pacers are a very tired team right now as this will be 12th game in 18 days. They'll have a hard time keeping up with Milwaukee in this one.
The Bucks like to play at a fast pace since they traded for Monta Ellis. Milwaukee has scored 104-plus points in 16 of their last 21 games overall. The Bucks are 14-6 in their last 20 games and they're clearly one of the best teams in the league over the past month.
The Pacers are 11-28 ATS in their last 39 games playing on 0 days rest. Indiana is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Bucks are 31-17 ATS after scoring 105 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Bet Milwaukee Saturday.
|04-14-12||Milwaukee Brewers v. Atlanta Braves -107||1-2||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
15* NL Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -107
The Atlanta Braves are showing great value as a small home favorite over the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday. Atlanta has put their September collapse and their 0-4 start behind them. The Braves have reeled off three straight wins and this team is feeling good right now.
Atlanta starts one of the best young prospects in the game in Mike Minor tonight. Shaun Marcum has shoulder problems and has lost a lot of velocity because of it. I look for the Braves to jump on Marcum early and often in this one.
Milwaukee is just 7-19 against the money line revenging a loss where opponent scored 10 or more runs over the last 3 seasons. Atlanta is 31-11 against the money line in home games after 2 or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons. The Brewers are 1-7 in their last 8 games as an underdog. The Braves are 5-1 in Minor's last 6 home starts. The Brewers are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings in Atlanta. Take the Braves Saturday.
|04-14-12||DET TIGERS +107 v. Chicago White Sox||1-5||Loss||-100||6 h 0 m||Show|
15* AL Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Tigers +107
The Detroit Tigers are showing solid value as an underdog against the Chicago White Sox today. Rarely will you ever get Detroit as an underdog this season, so you should certainly take advantage whenever they are. This team has arguably the best line-up in baseball.
Detroit is scoring a whopping 6.0 runs/game this season while their hitters are batting .290 as a team. Chicago is scoring 4.2 runs/game on a .236 average. In fact, the White Sox have a lower on-base percentage (.289) than Detroit has for an average.
The Tigers are 46-18 in their last 64 vs. American League Central. Detroit is 41-10 in their last 51 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Tigers are 8-1 in their last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. The White Sox are 3-13 in their last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Chicago is 7-19 in Gavin Floyd's last 26 starts vs. American League Central. Roll with the Tigers Saturday.
|04-13-12||Dallas Mavericks -3 v. Portland Trailblazers||97-94||Push||0||12 h 32 m||Show|
15* Mavs/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Dallas -3
The Dallas Mavericks are fighting to just make the playoffs. Dallas (33-26) would be the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference if the season were to end today. The Mavericks are 2 games ahead of ninth-place Utah and 2.5 games ahead of tenth-place Phoenix.
There's no question the Mavericks will be motivated in each game they play from here on out, which should bring out the best of them. Dallas has won and covered two straight with a 110-100 home win over Sacramento on Tuesday, then a 112-103 road win at Golden state on Thursday.
I look for the Mavericks to continue playing well against Portland tonight. The Trail Blazers are coming off a 118-110 home victory over Golden State Wednesday, but this team is all but eliminated from the playoffs. They'll have a tough time getting up to play every game from here on out.
Portland has only won back-to-back games once since late January. This team has been playing terrible for quite some time, and ownership has basically decided to rebuild by trading away Gerald Wallace and Marcus Camby. Making matters worse is the fact that leading scorer and rebounder LaMarcus Aldridge will miss the rest of the season with a hip injury.
This has been a thrilling series this season, with both meetings going into overtime. However, the Blazers have no chance tonight without their best player. Aldridge has scored 58 points while grabbing 24 rebounds in their first two games against Dallas this season, and that's production that they simply cannot replace.
The Mavericks are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Blazers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win. Dallas is 27-14 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Portland is 1-13 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season, failing to cover 93% of the time. Roll with the Mavericks Friday.
|04-13-12||Milwaukee Brewers v. Atlanta Braves -125||8-10||Win||100||9 h 32 m||Show|
15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -125
This is the home opener for the Braves, and you can bet it's going to be rocking in Atlanta tonight. After an 0-4 start, the Braves are back on track with two consecutive wins. They have their collapse last September, and their slow start this year out of their system, and they're ready to roll now.
I believe the Braves have the better starter on the mound tonight in Jair Jurrjens, who went 13-6 with a 2.96 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 23 starts last season. Randy Wolf went 13-10 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.319 WHIP last year, but he's far past his prime. Wolf has posted an ERA of 4.17 or higher in seven of his last nine seasons.
Jurrjens is 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in three career starts against Milwaukee. He has given up just 3 earned runs and 14 base runners over 14 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Brewers. Wolf is 5-12 with a 5.30 ERA and 1.559 WHIP in 26 career starts against Atlanta.
The Brewers are 12-25 in their last 37 games as a road underdog. Atlanta is 40-15 in their last 55 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The Braves are 58-27 in their last 85 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Atlanta is 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 home meetings with the Brewers. Take Atlanta Friday.
|04-13-12||Cleveland Cavaliers +12 v. Indiana Pacers||Top||83-102||Loss||-107||8 h 3 m||Show|
25* NBA DOG OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +12
The Cleveland Cavaliers represent the best underdog for the entire 2011-12 season Friday. Cleveland continues to fight despite being eliminated from playoff contention, and they are catching way too many points here tonight against the Indiana Pacers.
The betting public has not wanted to back Cleveland since PG Kyrie Irving went out with an injury. But the Cavaliers have been a money-making machine since, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games. They won twice outright, lost twice in overtime and lost by 9 at Milwaukee.
Cleveland has a bunch of players right now that are fighting to prove that they belong in the NBA, and they are auditioning for jobs next season. Lester Hudson is the perfect example, averaging 23.3 points in his last four games, including an incredible 12.5 points in the fourth quarter.
The Cavaliers have played the Pacers very tough this season. Indiana is 2-1 against Cleveland this season, but both of their wins came in overtime. Cleveland beat Indiana 98-87 on February 15th. This is a home-and-home situation as the Pacers beat the Cavs 104-98 (OT) on Wednesday.
I almost always take the team that lost the first of a home-and-home situation in their second game. That's because the winning team has a hard time getting up emotionally to beat a team that they just beat a day or two ago. Meanwhile, the team that lost the first game is out for revenge and has no trouble getting motivated.
The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. The Pacers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Cavaliers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Pacers. Bet Cleveland Friday.
|04-12-12||Arizona: I Kennedy -132 v. San Diego: A Bass||3-1||Win||100||11 h 49 m||Show|
15* Diamondbacks/Padres NL Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -132
Ian Kennedy arguably should have won the Cy Young last season after going 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.086 WHIP with 198 strikeouts in 222 innings. Motivated to go after the prestigious award again, Kennedy is in line for another monster season.
He's off to a 1-0 start after beating the San Francisco Giants in their opener. Arizona has started fast, going 4-1 through their first five games with their only loss coming by a single run last night. I look for the Diamondbacks to have their revenge with the huge edge they have on the mound in this one.
Kennedy is 5-0 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in seven lifetime starts versus San Diego. Padres' starter Anthony Bass, who has only started three games in his career, is no match for Kennedy in this one.
Kennedy is 15-1 against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Kennedy is 14-1 against the money line vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Kennedy's last 5 starts vs. Padres. Roll with Arizona Thursday.
|04-12-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. San Antonio Spurs -5.5||Top||97-107||Win||100||9 h 19 m||Show|
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -5.5
The San Antonio Spurs are very hungry for a win tonight following rare back-to-back losses heading in. The Spurs lost at Utah 84-91 on Monday mainly because they sat Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobli for rest. San Antonio lost 84-98 at home to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. Perhaps they didn't get up for that game since Kobe Bryant wasn't playing.
One thing is for certain, the Grizzlies have the Spurs' full attention tonight. San Antonio has not lost three in a row all season, and they're not about to start Thursday. Memphis has been playing well of late, but they are overvalued in this spot.
Remember, San Antonio lost to Memphis in the first round of the playoffs last season, so the Spurs want revenge. The Spurs have gotten plenty of revenge thus far, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Memphis this season. They want to stick the dagger in and twist it tonight by sweeping the Grizzlies 4-0.
The Spurs are 23-5 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points/game. The Grizzlies are 13-16 on the road this year. San Antonio is scoring 104.2 points/game at home, while Memphis is putting up a mere 91.8 points/game on the road.
The Grizzlies are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Spurs are 11-1-1 (92%) ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss. San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss, and 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Bet the Spurs Thursday.
|04-12-12||Miami Heat v. Chicago Bulls -1.5||86-96||Win||100||9 h 49 m||Show|
15* Heat/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Chicago -1.5
The Chicago Bulls have been the best team in the league this season despite playing without Derrick Rose for much of it. The Bulls are 44-14 this season, including 16-7 without Rose, to grab ahold of the No. 1 seed in the East and in the NBA.
Rose is expected to return tonight from an ankle injury, so getting the Bulls as a mere 1.5-point home favorite is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. Chicago has 82 consecutive home sellouts at the United Center, and these fans will be rocking as a Bulls win would all but assure them of the No. 1 seed in the East.
Miami has not been playing well of late, and it's not just going to change tonight against the best team in the NBA. The Heat lost 115-107 at home to the Boston Celtics on Tuesday, allowing them to shoot 60.6 percent from the floor. In the last 10 games, the Heat have yielded an average of 95.8 points on 47.3 percent shooting, the latter notably higher than their season mark of 43.2 percent.
Chicago is 23-6 at hom this season, while Miami is just 16-12 on the road. The Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, failing to cover the spread 88% of the time. The Bulls have won 11 of their last 15 home meetings with Miami. Take Chicago Thursday.
|04-11-12||San Francisco Giants -119 v. Colorado Rockies||8-17||Loss||-119||10 h 50 m||Show|
15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -119
Getting Tim Lincecum at this price tonight against the Colorado Rockies is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. Lincecum remains one of the best starters in the game today, and I look for him to continue his domination of the Rockies.
Lincecum is 8-6 with a 3.27 ERA in 17 career starts against Colorado. He has given up just 6 earned runs over 29 1/3 innings in his last four starts against the Rockies while going 3-1 in the process.
Colorado starter Jeremy Guthrie has posted average-at-best numbers throughout his career. He gave up 4 earned runs, 10 base runners and two home runs over 6 innings in his lone career start against San Francisco in 2010. He's no match for Lincecum.
The Giants are scoring 5.2 runs/game this season, while the Rockies are hitting just .180 and scoring 2.5 runs/game this year. Colorado is 11-31 against the money line after two straight games where they had 5 or less hits since 1997. The Rockies are 17-44 in their last 61 games as an underdog, and 0-8 in their last 8 home games. Take the Giants Wednesday.
|04-11-12||Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 201.5||98-84||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
15* Lakers/Spurs NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 201.5
The Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs will take part in a defensive battle tonight. This is a great rivalry as these two teams have been the top contenders in the Western Conference over the last decade. Defense usually reigns supreme.
Ten straight meetings between the Lakers and Spurs have seen 197 or less combined points. Dating back further, 21 of the last 22 meetings between these teams have seen 199 or less combined points. That makes for a 21-1 (95%) system backing the UNDER pertaining to tonight's total set.
The Lakers are really going to miss Kobe Bryant offensively. They struggled in their last game without him, beating the Hornets 93-91 for 184 combined points. The Lakers are trying to slow it down offensively and run their offense through Bynum and Gasol without Bryant on the floor. They cannot afford to run with the Spurs, and will not try to tonight.
The UNDER is 21-7 in Lakers last 28 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 16-5 in Lakers last 21 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 22-8 in Spurs last 30 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|04-11-12||Indiana Pacers v. Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5||Top||104-98||Win||100||8 h 16 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers should not be catching 8.5 points at home against the Indiana Pacers. While the Pacers are the team in the playoff hunt, the Cavaliers have showed no signs of packing it in. I look for Cleveland to give Indiana all they can handle.
The Cavaliers do have some injury concerns right now with Kyrie Irving out and Anderson Varejao questionable, but they have actually been playing better without Irving. Many players are getting a chance to prove that they belong in the league, and they are making the most of their opportunities.
Cleveland is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, which includes a road win at Toronto and a 13-point home victory over the Bobcats. They also gave the Bucks and Nets all they could handle on the road in losing efforts. Guard Lester Hudson is one player taking advantage of the extra playing time, averaging 24.7 points in his last three games.
The Cavaliers have played the Pacers very tough this season. Indiana won the first meeting on December 30th at home by a final of 98-91 in overtime. Cleveland would get their revenge with a 98-87 home victory on February 14th. The home team has won four of the last five, and I look for the home dominance to continue tonight.
Indiana is 0-11 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season, losing by an average score of 88.8 to 95.1 in this spot. The Cavs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. These three trends make for an 18-0 system backin Cleveland. Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.
|04-10-12||Orlando Magic v. Washington Wizards OVER 195||Top||85-93||Loss||-108||8 h 36 m||Show|
25* NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Magic/Wizards OVER 195
The Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards should easily combine for 196-plus points tonight, and I'm expecting 210-plus by game's end. Oddsmakers have missed their mark badly with this total set given the circumstances heading into this one.
Dwight Howard, the best defensive 'eraser' in the game who can make of for teammates mistakes defensively, is listed as doubtful with a back injury tonight. Without Howard last night, the Magic beat the Detroit Pistons 119-89 for 208 combined points.
Not only does Howard make their defense twice as good, he is also the player that their offense runs through. Without having to run their offense through Howard, the Magic can now play a more up-tempo game with a smaller line-up. That's what they did against Detroit, and that's what they'll do against Washington tonight.
The Wizards are also without two of their best defensive players in C Nene and F Trevor Booker, who are each listed as doubtful with foot injuries. The Wizards were without these two last night against Charlotte, and they exploded for 113 points in a 28-point victory over the Bobcats.
The last two meetings in this series went OVER the posted total with a 109-103 home victory for Orlando and 212 combined points on February 1st, and a 102-95 road victory for the Magic and 197 combined points on February 29th.
The OVER is 6-2 in Orlando's last 8 games overall. The OVER is 5-0 in Washington's last 5 games overall. The OVER is 4-0 in Magic last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The OVER is 5-0 in Wizards last 5 games as an underdog. These last three trends make for a perfect 14-0 system backing the OVER tonight. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|04-10-12||Boston: D Bard -120 v. Toronto: K Drabek||3-7||Loss||-120||7 h 26 m||Show|
15* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -120
Rarely will you get the Red Sox as a small favorite over any team in the league. Because of their slow 1-3 start, I believe Boston is showing great value right now. This is the time to back them at a 'bargain' price while you can.
Daniel Bard moves from the bullpen to the starting rotation this season in an excellent move by the Red Sox. Bard has posted a 2.88 ERA and 1.056 WHIP with 213 strikeouts in 197 innings in his three-year career thus far.
Kyle Drabek is nothing more than a prospect that just hasn't panned out for Toronto. Drabek is 4-8 with a 5.83 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in 21 appearances (17 starts) in his two-year career. He went 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA and 2.444 WHIP in two starts against Boston last year, allowing 12 earned runs, 22 base runners, and 5 home runs in 9 innings.
The Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Red Sox are 15-7 in the last 22 meetings in Toronto. The Red Sox are 19-7 in their last 26 during game 2 of a series. Take Boston Tuesday.
|04-10-12||New York (A): F Garcia -132 v. Baltimore: W Chen||5-4||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
15* AL Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -132
The New York Yankees are favorites to win the AL East this season. Getting New York at this price against the Baltimore Orioles, picked to finish last in the AL East, is an absolute bargain Tuesday.
The reason we are getting a good price on New York Tuesday is due to the fact that the Yankees opened 0-3. I had them picked last night with a 6-2 win over the Orioles for their first win of the year, and I'm siding with them again in this spot.
Freddy Garcia was a big reason for New York's success last year. The veteran right-handed went 12-8 with a 3.62 ERA in 25 starts. Wei-Ying Chen, formerly from a Japanese league, is no match for Garcia in this one.
Garcia is 53-28 against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 since 1997. Baltimore is 11-31 against the money line after a loss by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. The Yankees are 35-16 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 47-15 in their last 62 meetings with Baltimore. Roll with the Yankees Tuesday.
|04-09-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -3 v. Milwaukee Bucks||Top||109-89||Win||100||11 h 31 m||Show|
20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3
The Oklahoma City Thunder should be a much heavier favorite over the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. While I have been riding the Bucks a lot lately against some of the weaker competition in this league, and they have been playing well, now is the time to fade them.
The Bucks are 19-4 against teams below .500 this season, but just 9-24 against teams above .500. After losing three of their last four, the Thunder are a very inspired team right now. They will be going after Milwaukee with everything they have tonight, especially considering they are tied with San Antonio for the No. 1 seed in the West.
Milwaukee is 45-71 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996. The Thunder are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Oklahoma City is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bet the Thunder Monday.
|04-09-12||Atlanta: B Beachy -163 v. Houston: J Happ||3-8||Loss||-163||11 h 31 m||Show|
15* NL Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -163
The Atlanta Braves have opened the season 0-3 with three straight heartbreaking losses to the New York Mets by a combined 5 runs. Motivated for their first win of the year, I have the Braves blowing out the Houston Astros tonight.
Atlanta will send Brandon Beachy to the mound tonight to get the job done. Beachy is coming off an impressive rookie season in which he went 7-3 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.207 WHIP while striking out 169 batters in 141.2 innings.
Beachy will be up against J.A. Happ, who is coming off a disastrous 2011 campaign. Happ went 6-15 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.535 WHIP in 28 starts last year.
Houston is 8-26 after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Astros are 7-26 in Happ's last 33 starts. The Braves are 10-2 in all meetings with the Astros over the last 3 seasons. Take Atlanta Monday.
|04-09-12||New York (A): I Nova -147 v. Baltimore: B Matusz||6-2||Win||100||10 h 30 m||Show|
15* AL Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees -147
After opening the season 0-3 with three straight losses to the Tampa Bay Rays, I like the New York Yankees' chances of bouncing back with their first win of the season against the Baltimore Orioles tonight.
The Yankees lost those three games by a combined 6 runs, so there's no question they are going to be hungry for a win tonight. Baltimore has opened 3-0 this season with three wins over the lowly Minnesota Twins, and I believe they are even overvalued in this spot.
Ivan Nova is coming off a tremendous rookie year, going 16-4 with a 3.70 ERA in 27 starts for the Yankees. The same cannot be said for Brian Matusz, who went 1-9 with a 10.69 ERA and 2.114 WHIP last season. Matusz is now 16-23 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.507 WHIP in 52 career starts.
Nova is 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.263 WHIP in four career starts against Baltimore, while Matusz is 2-4 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.435 WHIP in seven career starts against New York. The Yankees are 6-0 in Nova's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Orioles are 0-8 in Matusz's last 8 starts as an underdog. Roll with the Yankees Monday.
|04-08-12||Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5 v. New Jersey Nets||Top||117-122||Win||100||8 h 35 m||Show|
20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +7.5
The betting public wants nothing to do with the Cleveland Cavaliers since Kyrie Irving went down with an injury. As a result, Cleveland is showing great value today against the New Jersey Nets, who should not be favored by 7.5 against any team in this league. I don't see the Nets being too motivated to play the Cavaliers tonight, which will make it tough for them to cover this large number.
Because their lines have been inflated of late, the Cavaliers have covered two straight with a 9-point loss at red-hot Milwaukee as a 12.5-point underdog, and an 84-80 outright win at Toronto as a 7-point dog. I can see them winning this game outright as well.
While the Cavaliers are without Irving, they have actually had other players step up in a big way. Antawn Jamison poured in 25 points against the Raptors, and Lester Hudson came off the bench to score 23 points. They have several players that are ready to take advantage of their opportunities.
The Nets are 1-10 ATS in home games versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. New Jersey is 0-10 ATS in home games after a game where they covered the spread this season. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. These three trends make for a 25-1 (96%) System backing Cleveland. Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.
|04-08-12||Kansas City: J Sanchez v. LA Anaheim: E Santana OVER 8||7-3||Win||100||17 h 13 m||Show|
15* AL Sunday Total ANNIHILATOR on Royals/Angels OVER 8
Oddsmakers have set the bar too low in this game between the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Angels. These are two of the better offenses in the league, and that will be on full display Sunday.
Jonathan Sanchez has never been a star. The lefty is 38-46 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.388 WHIP in 118 career starts. He went 4-7 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.441 WHIP last year in pitcher-friendly San Francisco. Sanchez will put up even worse numbers in the hitter-loaded American League this season. He gave up 7 runs in 3 2/3 innings in his lone career start against the Angels.
While Ervin Santana is coming off a very solid season, this is just one team he cannot seem to figure out. Santana is 5-5 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in 13 career starts against Kansas City. He has given up 10 earned runs and four homers in his last two starts against the Royals. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.
|04-08-12||Philadelphia Phillies -122 v. Pittsburgh Pirates||4-5||Loss||-122||15 h 18 m||Show|
15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -122
Rarely will you ever get the Philadelphia Phillies at this price, especially against a team as poor as the Pittsburgh Pirates. Off a one-run loss to the Pirates yesterday, I like the Phillies to bounce back with a blowout victory Sunday.
Vance Worley was one of the most profitable pitchers in the league to back last season. That's because he's very good, but he gets overlooked due to the talented Big 3 at the front of the Phillies starting rotation. It appears as if he's starting out 2012 undervalued once again.
Worley went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA and 1.230 WHIP in 21 starts last season. He'll be up against James McDonald, who went 9-9 with a 4.21 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in 31 starts last year. McDonald is 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA and 2.222 WHIP in two career starts against Philly.
The Phillies are 17-5 in Worley's last 22 starts overall, including 7-1 in his last 8 road starts. Philly is 21-5 in their last 26 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Pirates are 18-42 in their last 60 games overall. Roll with the Phillies Sunday.
|04-08-12||New York Yankees v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8||0-3||Loss||-100||15 h 19 m||Show|
15* AL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Yankees/Rays OVER 8
Oddsmakers have missed their mark with this total set Sunday. There is a ton of value with the OVER 8 runs here in a game that I believe the total should be set at 9 or higher.
Both Phil Hughes and Jeremy Hellickson are getting too much respect here. Hughes went 5-5 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.487 WHIP last season. While Hellickson had a solid year, he was one of the most "lucky" pitchers in baseball in batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
Both starters haven't been superb against their opposition. Hughes has a 4.21 ERA in six career starts against Tampa while Hellickson sports a 4.07 ERA in four career starts against New York.
The OVER is 10-1-2 in ump Andy Fletcher's last 13 games behind home plate. The OVER is 5-0 in Fletcher's last 5 games behind home plate vs. New York. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
|04-08-12||Atlanta: M Minor +100 v. New York (N): J Niese||5-7||Loss||-100||15 h 48 m||Show|
15* NL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Braves +100
The Atlanta Braves are very hungry for their first win of the season. After losing the first two games of this series to the New York Mets, I have no doubt the Braves will bounce back with a victory in Game 3 Sunday.
Hot prospect Mike Minor had a great spring for Atlanta, and he's ready to blossom into a dominant starter in this league. The Braves are 4-0 in Minor's four career starts against the Mets, and they'll improve to 5-0 Sunday.
The Braves are 8-3 in their last 11 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. The Mets are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 1-5 in Jon Niese's last 6 starts as a home underdog. Take the Braves Sunday.
|04-07-12||Miami: R Nolasco +145 v. Cincinnati: M Latos||8-3||Win||145||8 h 46 m||Show|
15* NL Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +145
After losing their first two games of the season, there's no question the Miami Marlins will be highly motivated for a win Saturday. I believe they get their first "W" at a great price over the Cincinnati Reds.
Mat Latos goes for the Reds, and while he was a quality starter in San Diego last year, he will struggle in a new hitter-friendly park. Latos has struggled against the Marlins, going 0-2 with a 9.25 ERA and 2.142 WHIP in three career starts against Miami. Take the Marlins Saturday.
|04-07-12||New York (A): H Kuroda +114 v. Tampa Bay: D Price||6-8||Loss||-100||8 h 46 m||Show|
15* AL Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees +114
I am banking on the Yankees not to open the season 0-2 after a tough one-run loss to the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday. I believe they have a big advantage with underrated Hiroki Kuroda on the mound.
Kuroda has a huge advantage switching to the American League considering not many teams in this league are familiar with him. The veteran should dominate early in the season before opposing teams pick up on his tendencies.
David Price sports a 4.10 ERA in 12 career starts against New York, so the Yankees are certainly familiar with him. Price gave up 6 runs, 5 earned, in 4 innings in his last start against the Yankees, which was at Tropicana Field.
The Yankees are 35-16 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter. New York is 94-45 in their last 139 during game 2 of a series. The Rays are 0-5 in Prices last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Tampa is 2-7 in Price's last 9 home starts. Roll with the Yankees Saturday.
|04-07-12||Boston Celtics +2 v. Indiana Pacers||Top||86-72||Win||100||8 h 42 m||Show|
20* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston Celtics +2
This line screams take Indiana as a small home favorite after their huge win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, but I'm going the other way. Off such a huge win, the Pacers are in for a big letdown tonight against the Boston Celtics. I expect the Celtics to win this one going away.
Indiana is a very tired team now. The Pacers are coming off a hard-fought victory over the Thunder last night, so they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back. Plus, this will be Indiana's 8th game in 11 days! Fatigue will be a factor for the Pacers tonight.
Off consecutive losses to two of the best teams in the league in the Spurs and Bulls, and trailing the Pacers in the Eastern Conference playoff race, the Celtics will be extremely motivated for a win here. I look for Boston to put forth one of their best efforts of the season.
Indiana is 0-9 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season. The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5. Boston is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Take this combined 19-0 system backing Boston straight to the bank tonight. Bet the Celtics Saturday.
|04-06-12||Golden State Warriors +8 v. Utah Jazz||98-104||Win||100||10 h 49 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Golden State Warriors +8
The Golden State Warriors continue to fight despite knowing they are not going to make the playoffs this season. They are trying to play the role of spoiler, and they are giving some of the best teams in the league a run for their money of late. I look for them to give the Utah Jazz all they can handle tonight.
The Warriors are a very profitable 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Warriors have had Utah's number in recent meetings, winning three of the last five by 15, 7 and 18 points. Utah's two victories over Golden State during this stretch came by finals of 88-87 and 99-92 (OT).
Utah is 1-9 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Utah is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Jazz are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Warriors Friday.
|04-06-12||Detroit Pistons +8.5 v. Atlanta Hawks||96-101||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +8.5
The Detroit Pistons are showing great value as an 8.5-point underdog to the Atlanta Hawks tonight. Detroit has been undervalued for months, and that's certainly the case again tonight. Any time Atlanta is this heavy of a favorite, I'm going to look to fade them if it's the right opponent.
Detroit is 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games overall. The betting public has not really been willing to back the Pistons, either, which is why they continually show great value. They have won five of their last six overall, with their only loss coming at Chicago during this stretch.
These teams have played in two very heated battles this season. Atlanta won the first meeting 107-101 in overtime on January 27th, but Detroit would have their revenge with an 86-85 win over the Hawks on March 9th. I believe this game will go right down to the wire as well.
The Hawks are 5-18 ATS in home games after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the Pistons Friday.
|04-06-12||San Francisco: T Lincecum v. Arizona: I Kennedy -105||4-5||Win||100||8 h 54 m||Show|
15* Giants/Diamondbacks ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Arizona -105
The Diamondbacks should be a much heavier favorite in their home opener against the San Francisco Giants. There's no question that Tim Lincecum is still one of the better starters in the game, but he is getting way too much respect here.
Ian Kennedy is getting no love despite a Cy Young-worthy season last year. He was a 20-plus game winner despite pitching in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league. This guy is the real deal, and I like his chances to take down Lincecum.
Kennedy is 4-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 0.948 WHIP in 10 career starts against San Francisco. Lincecum has given up 10 earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts against Arizona for a 9.00 ERA. Take the Diamondbacks.
|04-06-12||Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 v. Indiana Pacers||Top||98-103||Loss||-103||8 h 50 m||Show|
20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off back-to-back losses for just the second time this season. They haven't lost three straight once this year. I expect the Thunder to bounce back in a big way with an inspired performance tonight against the Indiana Pacers.
Indiana is certainly playing well of late, but their run comes to an abrupt halt tonight. The Pacers are a very tired team right now as this will be their 7th game in 10 days. That doesn't bode well for them considering the Thunder like to push the pace, which will ware down these Indiana players by the fourth quarter.
The Thunder are 55-25-1 ATS in their last 81 games following a S.U. loss. As you can see by this trend, this team has unbelievable resiliency and knows how to bounce back. OKC is 39-17-1 ATS in their last 57 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. The Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet the Thunder Friday.
|04-06-12||Colorado: J Guthrie -122 v. Houston: W Rodriguz||5-3||Win||100||8 h 48 m||Show|
15* NL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -122
The Houston Astros are one of the worst teams in baseball. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in their opener today against the Colorado Rockies.
Wandy Rodriquez is a decent starter, but he has not fared well against the Rockies. Rodriquez has posted a 4.43 ERA and 1.508 WHIP in 11 career starts against Colorado.
The Rockies picked up one of the more underrated starters in the league this offseason. Jeremy Guthrie is going to love pitching in the National League, especially against the Astros today.
Guthrie gave up one earned run and four base runners in 8 innings in his lone career start against Houston. He'll guide Colorado to victory in their opener. Bet the Rockies.
|04-05-12||Boston Celtics +7.5 v. Chicago Bulls||Top||86-93||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
20* NBA on TNT GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Celtics +7.5
The Chicago Bulls are likely to be without Derrick Rose once again tonight as he nurses a sore groin. He is listed as doubtful tonight, and from his comments, it appears there's almost no way he plays. Even if he does, I still like Boston to cover this inflated number.
Playing without Rose is finally starting to catch up to the Bulls, who have lost two straight for the first time all season. Meanwhile, Boston is finally starting to get healthy as they just got Ray Allen back last night. They gave San Antonio all they could handle, eventually falling 86-87.
Due to getting healthy, the Celtics are in the midst of one of their best stretches of the season. Boston is 7-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall, winning four road games during this stretch. The Bulls were destroyed by the Thunder 78-92 on Sunday despite outscoring Oklahoma City 27-12 in the 4th quarter. They followed that up with a 93-99 home loss to Houston on Monday.
The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Boston is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. The Celtics are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Boston Thursday.
|04-05-12||Miami: M Buehrle +135 v. Cincinnati: J Cueto||0-4||Loss||-100||6 h 40 m||Show|
15* Marlins/Reds ESPN 2 Thursday No-Brainer on Miami +135
The Miami Marlins simply did not handle the pressure of opening up their new ball park well last night. I look for Miami to feel much more comfortable going on the road into Cincinnati today and to play up to their potential.
Miami will send Mark Buehrle to the mound in this one. The former White Sox Ace will thrive in the National League this season, especially early in the year since these National League hitters have not had a chance to see him.
Buehrle has fared well in his two career starts against Cincinnati, going 2-0 with a 0.60 ERA and 0.733 WHIP. Johnny Cueto has not fared well in three career starts against Miami, posting a 5.63 ERA and 1.938 WHIP. Look for the Marlins to tee off on him in this one. Take Miami Thursday.
|04-05-12||Boston: J Lester +140 v. Detroit: Verlander||2-3||Loss||-100||3 h 41 m||Show|
15* Red Sox/Tigers ESPN 2 Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +140
The Tigers are way over-hyped coming into the season. As a result, their lines are going to be inflated early. That's the case tonight as I am seeing excellent value in the Boston Red Sox.
Somehow, the Red Sox are coming in a bit 'under the radar' early due to their collapse in September last year. Few picked this team to win the AL East this season, and I expect to get some very reasonable prices on Boston early because of it.
Jon Lester is fully capable of taking down Justin Verlander today. Lester went 15-9 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.257 WHIP last season in what was considered a 'down year' for him. Look for Lester to make a statement in this opener and shut down this new Tigers line-up.
The Tigers are 5-0 in Lester's last 5 starts as a road underdog. The Tigers are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Red Sox Thursday.
|04-04-12||New Jersey Nets +8.5 v. Portland Trailblazers||88-101||Loss||-110||10 h 11 m||Show|
15* Nets/Blazers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Jersey +8.5
The New Jersey Nets are playing their best basketball of the season right now. The same cannot be said for the Portland Trail Blazers, who have all but played themselves out of the Western Conference playoff race over the last few months. I like to the Nets to cover this big number with ease tonight.
New Jersey is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall. That includes a 16-point home win over Indiana, and two road victories over Golden State and Sacramento. Their lone loss was a 4-point setback to the Los Angeles Lakers last night as they nearly pulled off the upset in Staples Center.
Portland hasn't won back-to-back games since late January, having alternated decisions in its last nine contests to put the club in a tough position heading into the final weeks of the season. Ownership really showed that they were not playing for this season, rather rebuilding for next when they decided to trade Gerald Wallace to New Jersey before the trade deadline.
Look for Wallace to have a big game against his former team tonight, and for the Blazers to continue to struggle. The Blazers have just one win by more than 6 points over their last 10 games. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. The Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Take the Nets Wednesday.
|04-04-12||Phoenix Suns +6 v. Utah Jazz||Top||107-105||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +6
The Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz are each fighting for their playoff lives right now. Though Phoenix has won 15 of 22, it currently sits 10th in the West. However, the Suns are one-half game behind ninth-place Utah (28-26) and 1 1/2 back of Houston, which owns the eighth and final playoff spot.
I like the way Phoenix has been playing for the last couple months, and I believe they are simply catching too many points tonight against a banged-up Jazz bunch. Utah is without starting SG Raja Bell, and they may also be without starting PG Devin Harris, who is listed as questionable after leaving their last game with an ankle injury.
The main reason I am backing the Suns tonight is because it's simply a match-up nightmare for Utah. Phoenix has absolutely owned this series over the last few seasons, and I don't see that changing here. The Suns have won six straight over Utah, which includes five wins by 9 points or more. They should not be the underdog in this one.
The Suns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Phoenix is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Utah is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Jazz are 16-34 ATS in their last 50 games following a ATS win. Bet Phoenix Wednesday.
|04-04-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Miami Heat UNDER 196.5||93-98||Win||100||8 h 12 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Heat ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 196.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat just played each other less than two weeks ago on March 25th. Oklahoma City won that game 103-87 at home for 190 combined points. With the familiarity of having just played each other, I believe this rematch will easily see less than 196.5 combined points.
These huge National TV games always seem to be lower-scoring. The fact of the matter is that when players get on National TV, they get tight offensively, but their effort is better defensively. I believe that will be the case here, plus their familiarity with one another will make points hard to come by as each team makes the proper adjustments defensively.
Miami is 11-3 to the UNDER in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. Oklahoma City is 9-1 to the UNDER after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread this season, and we're seeing an average of 182.5 points/game in this spot. The UNDER is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|04-04-12||St Louis: K Lohse v. Miami: J Johnson -171||4-1||Loss||-171||7 h 10 m||Show|
15* Cardinals/Marlins MLB Season Opener on Miami -171
First and foremost, I will almost never take a team that is -150 or higher this season. That being said, I'm very confident that the Miami Marlins are going to win this game in their new ball park tonight over the St. Louis Cardinals.
When healthy, Josh Johnson is capable of out-pitching any starter in this league. Now healthy, Johnson will get the ball for this opener to give the Marlins a huge edge on the mound. Johnson was 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.978 WHIP in nine starts last season before going down with injury.
Kyle Lohse is a notorious slow starter, and I like him to get rocked tonight by this new, improved Marlins line-up that features Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes and Mike Stanton. Lohse has posted a 5.85 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in six career starts against the Marlins, while Johnson sports a 3.60 ERA and 1.229 WHIP in five career starts against St. Louis.
The Marlins are 29-10 in Johnson's last 39 home starts. Miami is 21-7 in Johnson's last 28 starts as a home favorite. Bet the Marlins Wednesday.
|04-03-12||New Jersey Nets +9.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||87-91||Win||100||11 h 21 m||Show|
15* Nets/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on New Jersey +9.5
I have been fading the Los Angeles Lakers quite a bit lately, and with great success. I got recent covers on the Blazers, Grizzlies and Warriors while going against the Lakers at home. Los Angeles just has a knack for playing to the level of their competition, and they rarely blow out teams that they are supposed to.
New Jersey is playing very well of late, and they'll be chomping at the bit to face the Lakers in Staples Center tonight. That's a big reason why the Lakers struggle against the spread at home is because they always get the opposing team's best shot. The Nets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, beating Indiana 100-84 at home before going on the road to knock off the Warriors and Kings.
The Lakers are in a huge look-ahead spot tonight. They lead the Pacific Division by just one game over the Los Angeles Clippers, which would mean they'd be the No. 3 seed if the season were to end today. Guess who the Lakers play tomorrow night? The Clippers, which is a team they will be much more interested in facing than the Nets.
Los Angeles is 1-9 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Lakers are 1-8 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) this season. The Nets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Pacific opponents. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. L.A. is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. These five trends make for a 38-2 (95%) system backing New Jersey. Take the Nets Tuesday.
|04-03-12||Golden State Warriors +7 v. Memphis Grizzlies||94-98||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Golden State Warriors +7
This is a huge letdown spot for the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Memphis caught Oklahoma City playing the second of a back-to-back last night and took advantage, beating the Thunder 94-88 on the road. After such a huge win over the No. 1 seed in the West, and playing the second of a back-to-back, there is a very good chance the Grizzlies come out flat tonight.
Another reason I believe they will come out flat is because this is a look-ahead game as well. Memphis will be playing the defending champion Dallas Mavericks tomorrow night, which is a game they will be much more interested in than this one with the Warriors tonight.
While the Warriors have lost five straight, four of those losses came by 8 points or less, including three by 3 points or fewer. Golden State has lost their first three meetings of the season with the Grizzlies, though two of those losses came by a single point each. That makes the Warriors the more motivated team tonight as they look to avoid the season sweep.
Golden State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. The Warriors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games. The Grizzlies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with the Warriors Tuesday.
|04-03-12||Charlotte Bobcats +9 v. Toronto Raptors||Top||87-92||Win||100||8 h 52 m||Show|
25* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Charlotte Bobcats +9
The Charlotte Bobcats are showing their best value of the season tonight as a 9-point underdog to the Toronto Raptors. This is a battle between two teams that aren't going to make the playoffs, and as a result it's going to be hard for Toronto to be motivated enough to win this game by double-digits.
While Charlotte continues to lose, they have at least been more competitive of late to show that they have not completely packed it in. The Bobcats have lost three of their last four games by 7 points or less, and they just took Detroit to overtime on the road last time out. The Bobcats have had two days' rest since that loss to the Pistons.
Toronto should not be laying 9 points to any team in this league. While they have been better than the Bobcats this season, the Raptors still aren't that good at 18-35. Plus, the Bobcats have their number, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings dating back to 2010.
The Raptors are 4-17 ATS revenging 2 consecutive straight up losses to opponent as a favorite since 1996. Toronto is 0-10 ATS in home games versus horrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996. Bet the Bobcats Tuesday.
|04-02-12||Kansas v. Kentucky -6.5||Top||59-67||Win||100||11 h 45 m||Show|
20* Kansas/Kentucky NCAA Championship No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5
I like the Kentucky Wildcats to roll tonight over the Kansas Jayhawks. Kentucky has been the best team in the country all year, and they'll cap it off with a win and cover tonight to give head coach John Calipari his first championship.
Kansas is very fortunate to be here having won three times by 3 points or less in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Kentucky has stormed through the field with five victories all by 8 points or more, and four by 12 points or more.
These teams faced each other back on November 15th earlier this season on a neutral court. Kentucky won that game 75-65 despite going just 16-of-29 (55.2 percent) from the free throw line and committing a whopping 19 turnovers. They had a sub-par performance and still won by 10 points.
Kansas is 6-15 ATS in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Jayhawks are 18-36 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread this season. Bet Kentucky Monday.
|04-02-12||Houston Rockets v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 186||99-93||Loss||-110||10 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Bulls UNDER 186
The Houston Rockets and Chicago Bulls will take part in a defensive battle tonight. These are two tired teams as both will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. With both teams playing on tired legs, the pace will be much slower than usual.
Both teams are without their best offensive players. The Bulls are without leading scorer Derrick Rose (22.8 points), while the Rockets are without their top two scorers in Kevin Martin (17.0 points) and Kyle Lowry (15.9 points).
The Rockets combined for 171 points against Dallas, 187 points against Memphis, and 186 points at the end of regulation against Indiana in their last three games, respectively. The Bulls combined for 175 points against Atlanta, 154 points against Detroit, and 170 points against Oklahoma City in their last three games, respectively.
Houston is 53-24 to the UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) - 2nd half of the season since 1996. The Bulls are 7-2 to the UNDER in their last nine games overall. The Rockets are 8-1 to the UNDER in their last nine games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.
|04-01-12||Golden State Warriors +10.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers||Top||112-120||Win||100||11 h 28 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Golden State +10.5
The Golden State Warriors are showing great value as a double-digit underdog to the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday. I almost always go against the Lakers when they're favored by double-digits, and that's certainly the case today.
Los Angeles had a bad habit of playing to their competition. They can beat the best teams in the league, but they can also lose to the worst. That was evident earlier this season as they lost to the Pistons and Wizards on back-to-back nights.
The Lakers are 1-10 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Golden State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses this season. Bet the Warriors Sunday.
|03-31-12||Ohio State -2.5 v. Kansas||Top||62-64||Loss||-104||125 h 49 m||Show|
25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -2.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes are favored for a reason here against the Kansas Jayhawks. While these are two No. 2 seeds battling it out for a spot in the National Championship, I have no doubt that the Buckeyes are the superior team. That will show on the floor Saturday night.
Ohio State has played the more difficult schedule to get here, and they've been more impressive in doing so. They beat Loyola-MD (78-59), underrated Gonzaga (73-66), red hot Cincinnati (81-66) and top-seeded Syracuse (77-70) to reach this point. The Buckeyes got here in pretty convincing fashion to say the least.
For starters, Kansas essentially played home games in their first four contests. They played their first two in Omaha, Nebraska, beating Detroit 65-50 before squeaking by Purdue 63-60. They played their next two games in St. Louis, Missouri, topping NC State 60-57 before using a 12-0 run over the final few minutes to beat North Carolina 80-67. Oh yeah, the Tar Heels were playing without the nation's leader in assists in Kendall Marshall.
Ohio State matches up with Kansas very well. They have the best on-ball defender in the country in Aaron Craft (8.8 points, 4.7 assists, 2.5 steals) to slow down KU's Tyshawn Taylor, who is 0-for-17 from three-point range in the NCAA Tournament. Jared Sullinger (17.6 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.0 blocks) against Thomas Robinson (17.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks) is essentially a wash, though I would take Sullinger myself.
Kansas did beat Ohio State at home 78-67 in their lone meeting this season, but Sullinger sat out that game with back spasms. Having Sullinger this time around is going to make all the difference. Robinson scored 21 points in that game only because Sullinger was not on the floor to help defend him.
Plus, KU does not have an answer for Deshaun Thomas (16.1 points) and William Buford (14.4 points). Buford put up 21 points in their first meeting, and Thomas added 19 points. These two mismatches that are hugely in Ohio State's favor are likely going to be the difference in why the Buckeyes move on.
The Jayhawks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite. Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Kansas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Bet Ohio State Saturday.
|03-31-12||Memphis Grizzlies v. Milwaukee Bucks -2.5||99-95||Loss||-110||11 h 45 m||Show|
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2.5
The Milwaukee Bucks have been rolling ever since trading for Monte Ellis. Getting them as a mere 2.5-point favorite tonight over Memphis is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. I'll take advantage.
The Bucks are 10-4 SU & 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. They are coming off a 121-84 blowout win at Cleveland, which allowed them to rest their starters in the fourth quarter. That will be to their benefit tonight against a Memphis team that took Houston down to the wire last night, but eventually lost 89-98.
The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Memphis is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. I'll take these two 100% systems backing the Bucks straight to the bank tonight. Roll with Milwaukee Saturday.
|03-31-12||Louisville +9 v. Kentucky||Top||61-69||Win||100||122 h 49 m||Show|
20* Louisville/Kentucky Final Four No-Brainer on Louisville +9
The Louisville Cardinals are simply catching too many points against the Kentucky Wildcats in the Final Four Saturday. While John Calipari is the better recruiter with more talent on the floor, he's not the better coach. I'll back Rick Pitino with this much time to prepare almost every single time.
Pitino and the Cardinals actually have an extra day to get ready for Kentucky. Louisville played last Saturday, while Kentucky played on Sunday. I have no doubt that Pitino will use his time to prepare to come up with a better game plan than Calipari will.
Louisville has been on an absolute tear since finally getting healthy. They won four games in four days to win the Big East Tournament, beating three NCAA Tournament teams along the way. They then won four straight games in the big dance to get here, including a 57-44 victory over top-seeded Michigan State.
These teams played once already this season back on December 31st. Louisville came in as a 10-point underdog at Kentucky, yet only lost 62-69 while covering that huge number. That was back when the Cardinals weren't healthy, with guys playing through injury, while missing other players. Now healthy, and on a neutral court this time around, the Cardinals have an excellent chance to pull off this upset.
In that game back on December 31st, the Cardinals used their press to near perfection. Louisville limited Kentucky to 17-of-57 shooting (29.8 percent) for the game, including 3-of-16 (18.8 percent) from 3-point range. The Cardinals only shot 20-of-62 (32.3 percent) themselves, but this game was won at the free throw line. Louisville simply fouled too much, and Kentucky took advantage by making a whopping 32-of-43 from the free throw line. That allowed the Wildcats to overcome their 20 turnovers.
Look for the Cardinals to be smarter about the fouls this time around, while continuing to keep the Wildcats out of rhythm offensively. Louisville is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season. Louisville is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These three trends make for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Cardinals. Take Louisville Saturday.
|03-30-12||Sacramento Kings v. Utah Jazz UNDER 214||Top||104-103||Win||100||9 h 59 m||Show|
25* Western Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Kings/Jazz UNDER 214
Oddsmakers have missed their mark with this total set tonight. I fully expect the Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz to combine to finish in the 195-205 point range in this one. This total has been inflated, making it my strongest over/under play in the Western Conference this season.
Season averages alone show that this number has been set too high. Sacramento is scoring 98.3 points/game and giving up 103.8 points/game this season for an average combined score of 202.1 points/game. Utah is scoring 98.8 points/game and giving up 98.7 points/game for an average combined score of 197.5 points/game.
Looking at home/away numbers, and this total has been set even further off the mark. Sacramento is scoring 94.7 points/game and giving up 104.6 points/game on the road for an average combined score of 199.3 points/game. Utah is scoring 101.0 points/game and yielding 94.4 points/game at home for an average combined score of 195.4 points/game.
The Jazz and Kings have combined to score 211 or less points in 11 straight meetings, making for a perfect 11-0 system pertaining to tonight's total set. In their three meetings this season alone, the Jazz and Kings have combined for 189, 199 and 205 points, respectively. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|03-30-12||Detroit Pistons v. Chicago Bulls -11.5||71-83||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -11.5
The Chicago Bulls have not missed a beat with Derrick Rose out of the line-up. The Bulls, who again expect to be without Rose, look to win their 14th straight over the Detroit Pistons on Friday night at the United Center. Chicago (41-11) is second in the NBA in scoring defense at 88.9 points per game, which is a big reason why they are 13-5 without Rose this season.
Detroit (18-32) is one of the league's lowest-scoring teams at 89.9 per game. In their most recent meeting Jan. 9, Chicago limited the Pistons to 39.4 percent shooting in a 92-68 home win. The Bulls also won at Detroit 99-83 five days earlier and have taken 13 straight in the series since Dec. 23, 2008.
Making matters worse for the Pistons is that they could be without starting guard Rodney Stuckey and backup Ben Gordon due to injuries. Stuckey, who hurt his left hamstring Wednesday, averages a team-best 16.1 points while Gordon averages 12.3. Stuckey is really the only reason this team has remained somewhat competitive, and without him they have no chance of keeping this one close.
Detroit has lost 11 straight in Chicago, with the last four defeats coming by an average of 20.0 points. The Pistons are only averaging 79.5 points/game in their last four contests, which doesn't bode well for them against the league's second-best defense. The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take Chicago Friday.
|03-30-12||Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards +8.5||76-97||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +8.5
While the Washington Wizards are among the league's worst teams again this season, this squad continues to fight. They only have 11 wins on the season, but the Wizards have been a much more competitive team since trading for Nene.
It hasn't shown in the win column as the Wizards are 0-5 in their last five games, but four of those five losses came by 4 points or less. Plus, four of those losses were against playoff teams in the Eastern Conference. They get another playoff team tonight in Philadelphia, and I fully expect Washington to give the 76ers a run for their money.
Philly is just 10-12 SU & 10-12 ATS on the road this season, and asking them to win by 9 points or more is simply asking too much tonight. Washington is 67-38 ATS after 5 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The 76ers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Roll with the Wizards Friday.
|03-29-12||Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Lakers +1||102-93||Loss||-105||11 h 59 m||Show|
15* Thunder/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +1
The Los Angeles Lakers have certainly been in the media a lot lately due to some recent benchings of their star players. Kobe Bryant was benched in their 96-102 home loss to Memphis Sunday, but he responded well by going off for 30 points in a 104-101 victory at Golden State Tuesday. Bryant hit two clutch jumpers over the final 1:04 to give his team the win.
Andrew Bynum was benched for an ill-advised 3-pointer he shot near the end of the 3rd quarter in that win over the Warriors. He sat out the final nine minutes of the game, and didn't handle the benching will in the media. After Kobe led by example and responded with a great game against Golden State, I believe Bynum will follow in his footsteps and have a monster night against the Thunder to lead the Lakers to victory.
This is a huge game for L.A. to prove to Oklahoma City that they aren't going anywhere, and that they are still the team to beat in the West. Kobe and the Lakers certainly respond well in these "big" games. They just beat Miami earlier this month 93-83, and they are 3-0 against Dallas this season, the team that swept them in the playoffs last year. Look for L.A. to revenge their 100-85 road loss at Oklahoma City just before the All-Star Break.
The Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Take the Lakers Thursday.
|03-29-12||Dallas Mavericks +8 v. Miami Heat||Top||85-106||Loss||-109||8 h 29 m||Show|
20* Mavericks/Heat NBA Finals Rematch on Dallas +8
Miami already had its "revenge game" against the defending champion Dallas Mavericks, who beat the Heat in the NBA Finals last year. The Heat would get their payback with a 105-94 road victory in Dallas on Christmas Day. While Miami certainly wants to beat Dallas again, they won't be as motivated as they were when they played on Christmas.
This line is simply inflated, and I don't see any way the Heat win this game by more than 8 points with the way they've been playing of late. Through March 1st, Miami was the highest-scoring team in the NBA at 103.8 points per game. Since then, the Heat are just 25th in the league at 93.1 points per game. Every team behind them is out of the playoff picture.
Miami is coming off back-to-back double-digit losses to Oklahoma City and Indiana by a combined 31 points. They just aren't playing well right now, and making matters worse is the fact that Lebron James just suffered a dislocated ring finger on his non-shooting hand. It happened against the Pacers, and it clearly affected him as he caught almost every pass with his right hand.
Dallas really, really needs this win tonight. The Mavericks are just two games ahead of ninth-place Denver in the Western Conference playoff race. That means they are in jeopardy of missing the playoffs if they don't get their act together quick. Dallas has done a good job of that with back-to-back wins over Houston, and they now come into this game well-rested having played just two games over the last five days.
The Mavericks are a sensational 31-11 ATS in their last 42 games as a road underdog. Dallas is 9-0 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 12-0 ATS off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons. Miami is 0-9 ATS in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference foes. These last four trends make for a perfect 34-0 system backing Dallas. Bet the Mavericks Thursday.
|03-29-12||Washington Wizards +10.5 v. Indiana Pacers||89-93||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
15* Wizards/Pacers NBA Thursday No-Brainer on Washington +10.5
The Washington Wizards are showing great value tonight as a double-digit underdog to the Indiana Pacers. The biggest reason I'm on Washington is due to the status of the Pacers, who have to be extremely tired right now. Indiana is playing the second of a back-to-back, and their 6th game in 8 days.
The Pacers started to show signs of fatigue last night when they just didn't have it in an 84-100 loss at lowly New Jersey. They committed 18 turnovers, and gave up 100-plus points for the third time in four games. Indiana has given up 100 or more just 12 times, but seven of those came in its last 13 contests. The Pacers are 2-10 when surrendering triple digits.
While Washington is 0-4 since trading for Nene, there's no denying that they have been playing much better basketball. Three of those losses came by three points or fewer, and the Wizards are going to be hungry to get back in the win column tonight. It's nice to see that this team is still fighting, which is what I expect them to continue doing here.
This play falls into a system that is 38-13 (74.5%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against home teams (INDIANA) - extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team. The Pacers are 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games playing on 0 days rest. Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Wizards Thursday.
|03-28-12||Phoenix Suns v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 194.5||86-103||Win||100||11 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Suns/Clippers UNDER 194.5
The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers have played in two low-scoring games already this month. Phoenix beat L.A. 81-78 for 159 combined points on March 2nd, and the Suns were victorious again by a final of 91-87 for 178 combined points on March 15th. I look for a similar low-scoring output tonight as these teams come nowhere near combining for 194.5.
Phoenix is a very tired team right now as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 6 days. They won't be able to run the floor like they usually would.
The Clippers have been having a tough time putting up points since losing Chauncey Billups. L.A. has scored 97 or less points in 10 of their last 11 games overall, but they have defended well. The Clippers have given up 97 or less points in nine of those 11 contests as well. They'll control the tempo at home tonight, which will be a much slower pace than Phoenix is used to.
The UNDER is 23-10 in Suns last 33 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 5-0 in Clippers last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The UNDER is 8-1 in Clippers last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The UNDER is 7-1 in Clippers last 8 home games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in this series. Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.
|03-28-12||Utah Jazz v. Boston Celtics -3.5||82-94||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -3.5
The Boston Celtics are showing solid value as a 3.5-point favorite tonight over the Utah Jazz. Utah is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to their impressive play of late. But now is the time to fade Utah as the value is clearly no longer with them.
Utah has won seven of their last eight, but this is a tired team right now. The Jazz will be playing their 5th game in 7 days, and one of those contests included a four-overtime game against Atlanta. I like the way the Celtics are playing of late, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. What's most impressive is that four of those five games were on the road.
The Jazz are just 8-17 on the road this season, while the Celtics are 17-8 at home. Boston is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite, 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. These three trends make for a perfect 15-0 system backing Boston. Take the Celtics Wednesday.
|03-28-12||Orlando Magic -2 v. New York Knicks||Top||86-108||Loss||-102||7 h 6 m||Show|
20* Magic/Knicks ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Orlando -2
The Orlando Magic are showing great value as just a 2-point favorite against the short-handed New York Knicks tonight. Orlando is well-rested right now as this will be just their 2nd game in the last 5 days. They come in the fresher team, and the healthier squad as well.
The Knicks will be playing without Amar'e Stoudemire (back), Jeremy Lin (knee), Jared Jeffries (knee), and Bill Walker (elbow). Not to mention, Carmelo Anthony is banged up with a groin injury. He's expected to play tonight, but won't be at full strength.
The Magic are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Orlando is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Magic are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall, winning all three by 10 points or more. Bet the Magic Wednesday.
|03-27-12||Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 193.5||81-90||Win||100||9 h 8 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Rockets/Mavericks UNDER 193.5
I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks in Western Conference action. The last two meetings in this series went to overtime, but both were defensive battles.
On 4/11/11, these teams were tied 86-86 at the end of regulation for 172 combined points. In their lone meeting this season on 3/24/12 just three nights ago, these teams were tied 91-91 at the end of regulation for 182 combined points. I don't see this game finishing anywhere near the 193.5-point total.
Houston is a tired team as they will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Each of their last two games went to overtime, so this squad is running on fumes. Plus, the Rockets are already short-handed without their top two scorers in Kevin Martin (17.0 PPG) and Kyle Lowry (15.9 PPG) due to injury.
Dallas and their opponents are combining to average 188.3 points/game this season. The Mavs have become more a defensive-minded team since the playoffs last year. They give up just 92.3 points/game at home on 42.5 percent shooting.
The Mavs are 8-1 to the UNDER as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season. The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockets last 8 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. The UNDER is 8-3 in Rockets last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.
|03-27-12||Atlanta Hawks v. Milwaukee Bucks -2||101-108||Win||100||9 h 39 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -2
Milwaukee had won six straight before losing three of their last four to playoff teams in Boston, Indiana and New York. If the Bucks want to be a playoff team, they know they cannot afford to lose many more games down the stretch as they trail the Knicks by 2.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the East.
I believe the Bucks get back on track tonight and buckle down at home against the Atlanta Hawks. I certainly like the way this team is playing with the addition of Monte Ellis. They now have numerous guards that can penetrate the lane and either score themselves, or find open teammates. Milwaukee has been scoring at will, putting up 104-plus points in nine of their last 11.
Atlanta has won four straight coming in. With a game against the East-leading Chicago Bulls lined up for tomorrow, this is a huge letdown spot for the Hawks. They are feeling good about their four-overtime victory over Utah a couple nights ago, which was the first 4 OT game since 1997. Off such a historical accomplishment, it'd be easy to see Atlanta come out flat here. Plus, the Bucks want revenge from two 5-point losses to the Hawks this season, so they'll be the more motivated team.
Atlanta is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games after allowing 120 points or more. The Hawks are 14-28 ATS in their last 42 following 2 or more consecutive wins. The Bucks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. The favorite is 17-8-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Take Milwaukee Tuesday.
|03-27-12||Massachusetts +2.5 v. Stanford||Top||64-74||Loss||-101||8 h 34 m||Show|
20* NIT Final Four PLAY OF THE DAY on Massachusetts +2.5
The Massachusetts Minutemen have been the most impressive team in the NIT to this point. I don't think there's any way they should be an underdog to the Stanford Cardinal in this one. UMass is going to have a solid home-court advantage, though they haven't needed it to get here.
UMass has pulled off three straight upsets on the road to get to Madison Square Garden. The Minutemen won 101-96 at Mississippi State as a 7-point dog, 77-67 at Seton Hall as a 6.5-point dog, and 72-70 at Drexel as a 7.5-point dog. They had to come back from a huge deficit against Drexel, and that comeback win has this team believing they won't be denied.
Stanford has had a much easier path to get here. The Cardinals have won three straight home games against Cleveland State, Illinois State and Nevada. I don't believe one of those teams is as good as any of the three teams that UMass has faced.They even needed overtime to beat Illinois State. Stanford is 17-3 at home this season, but just 5-6 on the road. The Cardinal won't be playing with nearly as much confidence knowing that they'll essentially be the road team in this one.
The Minutemen are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. UMass is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Stanford is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. The Cardinal are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Bet Massachusetts Tuesday.
|03-26-12||Pittsburgh v. Washington State +1||66-67||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
15* Pitt/WSU CBI Tournament Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +1
Both the Pittsburgh Panthers and Washington State Cougars have played very well to reach the CBI Tournament Championship Series. Both have won three games in a row to get here, but I have been more impressed with Washington State's path. Game 1 of this Best of 3 series will be played on the Cougars' home floor tonight.
Washington State has had to go on the road to pick up two very impressive wins as underdogs to get here. The Cougars opened with an 89-75 victory at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog. They would beat Wyoming 61-41 at home as a 2-point favorite before going on the road and knocking off Oregon State 72-55 as a 6.5-point underdog. As you can see, they have won each game by 14-plus points.
Pittsburgh opened with two very easy opponents at home with a 81-63 victory over Wofford followed by a 82-61 triumph over Princeton. They did beat Butler 68-62 on the road in their last game, but the Bulldogs are way down this season as it has been a rebuilding year for them. I believe Pittsburgh meets its match tonight in Washington State.
The Cougars are 11-4 at home, while the Panthers are just 4-8 in true road games this year. Washington State is 10-2 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by an average of 14.4 points/game. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Roll with Washington State Monday.
|03-26-12||Sacramento Kings v. Houston Rockets UNDER 209.5||106-113||Loss||-110||8 h 12 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Rockets UNDER 209.5
Oddsmakers have really inflated this total tonight between the Sacramento Kings and Houston Rockets. This will be just the second meeting between these Western Conference foes. The first resulted in a 103-89 home victory for Houston and 192 combined points, and I expect a similar scoring output here tonight.
Houston is without their top two scorers in Kevin Martin (17.0 PPG) and Kyle Lowry (15.9 PPG). That's a lot of production to be missing. Houston and their opponents have combined for 207 or less points in six of their last seven games. They have topped the 200-point mark just twice during this stretch.
The Rockets are 10-2 to the UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season. Houston is 18-6 to the UNDER in home games off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite since 1996. Sacramento is 63-36 to the UNDER off a road loss against a division rival since 1996. Take the UNDER in this game Monday.