15* Tennessee/Alabama ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -3

This is a great time to 'buy low' on Alabama.  They have been overconfident since a 91-82 upset win as 9.5-point underdogs to Gonzaga.  They have since gone 2-2 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They are coming off an upset loss to Davidson as 9.5-point favorites that will have them pissed off and playing with a chip on their shoulder in this SEC opener against Tennessee.

The overconfident, relaxed team here is going to be Tennessee.  That is because the Volunteers are coming off a 77-73 win over Arizona to hand the Wildcats their first loss of the season.  That was a massive victory, and it was at home while this will be just the 2nd true road game for the Volunteers this season.  This is a much stiffer test playing this pissed off Alabama squad.

The Crimson Tide are 6-0 SU at home this season and have a huge home-court advantage.  The Volunteers are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Alabama is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Take Alabama Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pacers OVER 227

Charlotte ranks 1st in pace this season and 2nd in offensive efficiency.  The Hornets are also dead last (30th) in defensive efficiency.  That has made them a tremendous OVER team this season and they should take part in a shootout with the Indiana Pacers, who rank 20th in defensive efficiency.

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Pacers and Hornets with combined scores of 261, 245 and 239 points.  So this total of 227 simply has not been set high enough based on recent history between these two teams.  None of those three games went to overtime, either.

The OVER is 7-0-1 in Hornets last eight games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 9-2 in Pacers last 11 home games.  The OVER is 8-1 in Pacers last nine games as home favorites.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Iowa State/Clemson Cheez-It Bowl Line Mistake on Clemson -2

Iowa State is going to be without one of the best players in the country in RB Breece Hall.  He had nearly 1,800 scrimmage yards and 23 touchdowns while leading the nation in scoring.  Clemson's stout defensive line won't have to respect the play-action, which is going to be a problem for QB Brock Purdy and this suspect Iowa State offensive line.  Clemson had 24 sacks in their last five games, while Iowa State went 0-5 ATS in games they allowed multiple sacks this season.

But the hits have kept coming for the Cyclones.  They will be without Co-Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Isheem Young, who is fourth in tackles and led the team in interceptions and was second in forced fumbles.  They will be without CB Kym-Mani King and LB Aric Horne.  And I added this pick on game day because I read that WR Xavier Hutchinson and LB Mike Rose will likely also be out.  So it sounds like they'll be without their top RB, top WR, best defensive player in Rose, his backup, their starting safety, starting corner and starting center.

Clemson played up to its potential down the stretch in going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with those 24 sacks.  Their defense is one of the best in the country and the best unit on the field, which is why they should win this game.  Their offense scored at least 30 points in all five wins down the stretch.  They simply have the better athletes on the field, and I don't give the Cyclones much of a chance with all they'll be missing.  

Iowa State struggled when they stepped up in class this season losing to Iowa, Baylor and Oklahoma as well as upset losses to West Virginia and Texas Tech.  They underachieved based on expectations, and they simply weren't that good.  The Tigers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 bowl games.  Clemson is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 December games.  The Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games, including 0-5 ATS in their last five neutral site games as underdogs.  Take Clemson Wednesday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Butler -2

The Butler Bulldogs are 7-4 this season with their four losses coming to Purdue, Houston, Michigan State and Texas A&M.  Three of those teams are three of the best teams in the country.  They also upset Oklahoma as an 11-point road underdog.

While Butler has been through the gauntlet in the non-conference that will have them prepared for the Big East schedule, DePaul is grossly overvalued due to a 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS start against a much softer schedule.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Blue Demons in their Big East opener.

DePaul played eight straight home games to open the season against soft competition.  They played their last two on the road against more soft competition in Louisville and Illinois Chicago.  While the Louisville upset was solid, that is a down Louisville team that is nowhere near as good as they were expected to be coming into the season.  This is the toughest test of the season for the Blue Demons in my opinion.

Butler is 5-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Michigan State.  The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Bulldogs are 14-1 SU in their last 15 meetings with DePaul with 12 wins by double-digits.  That includes 7-0 SU in their last seven home meetings.  Bet Butler Wednesday.

20* Maryland/VA Tech ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Maryland -3.5

The Maryland Terrapins were sitting at 5-6 and facing 5-6 Rutgers with the winning getting a chance to go to a bowl game.  The Terrapins won that game 40-16 in dominant fashion while outgaining the Scarlet Knights by 238 yards behind 575 total yards of offense against a good Rutgers defense.

It's safe to say that Maryland wants to be playing in this bowl game.  The Terrapins haven't been to a bowl game since 2016 and haven't won one since 2010.  They haven't had any key opt-outs, and this young team will relish this opportunity, as will head coach Mike Locksley.

The same cannot be said for Virginia Tech.  This is a program in flux now after head coach Justin Fuente was fired on November 16th.  Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry has been hired to replace Fuente, leaving J.C. Price as the interim coach to finish out this season.

The Hokies have been hit hard by opt-outs as they will be missing seven starters.  They will be without QB Braxton Burmeister, wide receivers Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson, cornerback Jermaine Waller, defensive end Amare Barno, NT Jordan Williams and OG Lecitus Smith.  

Turner and Robinson were Virginia Tech's top two receivers, combining for 84 receptions, 1,234 yards and eight touchdowns.  Robinson was also the punt returner.  Burmeister entered the transfer portal as well.  He threw for 14 touchdowns and four interceptions while also rushing for 521 yards and two scores.

Maryland played the 17th-toughest schedule in the country this season and actually outgained its opponents by 24 yards per game.  Virginia Tech played the 65th-ranked schedule and was actually outgained by 14 yards per game.  So the Terrapins were the better of these two teams even before all the opt-outs and distractions for the Hokies.  They should be much more than a 3.5-point favorite given the circumstances.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Maryland) - off an upset win as a road underdog against n opponent that is off a road win are 41-17 (70.7%) ATS since 1992.  Virginia Tech is 1-8 ATS following a win over the last two seasons.  The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Bet Maryland in the Pinstripe Bowl Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers just continue being a gravy train and the books continue to fail to adjust for it.  They have gone 20-13 SU & 25-8 ATS this season.  They should be more than 5.5-point favorites tonight over the lowly New Orleans Pelicans, who are 12-22 SU & 15-19 ATS this season.

The Pelicans will be without Nickeil Alexander-Walker and could be without both Brandon Ingram (doubtful) and Josh Hart (questionable) tonight.  This team is getting too much love for a recent 4-1 SU run against some weak competition.

The Cavaliers are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  They are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games with all 11 victories coming by double-digits!  That includes a 144-99 home win over the Raptors last time out.  And the Cavaliers are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game 6 days.  They will be missing a few guys due to COVID, but they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA.

Cleveland is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a favorite this season and winning by 23.0 points per game.  Take the Cavaliers Tuesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia 76ers -7

The Toronto Raptors are a mash unit right now.  They are missing three of their top five scorers in Fred VanVleet (20.1 PPG), OG Anunoby (19.3 PPG) and Scottie Barnes (15.6 PPG).  The other two in the top five are questionable in Pascal Siakam (19.1 PPG) and Gary Trent Jr. (16.8 PPG).

The Raptors have a whopping 12 players on the injury report with nine listed as out and three as questionable.  It's no wonder they had their doors blown off last time out in a 144-99 road loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  It won't go much better against the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.

The 76ers are close to being back to full strength and it showed last time out in a 117-96 win at Washington.  They key is that they have each of their top four scorers healthy in Embiid, Harris, Maxey and Curry, who all average at least 16.2 points per game.

The 76ers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  The Raptors are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games as home underdogs.  Roll with the 76ers Tuesday.

20* Louisville/Air Force First Responder Bowl No-Brainer on Air Force +1

Air Force went 9-3 this year and was very close to a perfect 12-0 season.  All three losses were one-score games and by a combined 17 points.  The Falcons should not be underdogs to this 6-6 Louisville team that didn't beat a single team with a winning record this season.

Air Force leads the country with 341.4 rushing yards per game.  They should have success on the ground against a Louisville defense that allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.  They haven't faced a rushing attack as potent as Air Force.  The only one they did face that was close was Kentucky, and they allowed 362 rushing yards in a 52-21 loss in the regular season finale against the Wildcats.

While this Air Force rushing attack is potent, the defense has almost been more impressive.  The Falcons rank 5th in the country in allowing just 288.8 total yards per game.  They are 7th against the run at 95.6 yards per game and 20th against the pass at 193.3 yards per game.  This is a below-average Louisville defense that ranks 84th at 402.5 yards per game allowed this season.

Air Force went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in road games this season.  Louisville is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games off a home loss by 14 points or more.  The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game this season.  Air Force is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Falcons are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games.  The Cardinals are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Louisville is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 non-conference games.  Bet Air Force in the First Responder Bowl Tuesday.

20* Dolphins/Saints ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -2.5

The New Orleans Saints have been hit hard by COVID this week.  They will be without both Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian at quarterback after they were already without Jameis Winston.  Now they will be starting 4th-stringer Ian Book, and they just signed Blake Bortles on Friday as insurance.

Sean Payton was allowed to return to the team on Friday.  But three other coaches who tested positive aren't expected to coach Monday.  On Saturday, DE Carl Granderson became the 16th player to test positive for COVID this week and the 19th person on the roster or the coaching staff to test positive since Tuesday.  

The Saints have two available DE's on the active roster for Monday's game; Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport, and Davenport is questionable with shoulder and knee injuries.  S Malcolm Jenkins, LB Demario Davis, T Ryan Ramczyk, LB Kaden Elliss, G James Carpenter, T Jordan Mills, S Jeff Heath, DT Christian Ringo, TE's Adam Trautman and Juwan Johnson, special teams ace J.R> Gray and RB Dwayne Washington are the others outside the quarterbacks.

Don't look now but the Miami Dolphins are back to .500 and in position to make the playoffs after their 1-7 start.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their defense is playing lights out during this stretch.  They are giving up just 11.5 points per game during this six-game winning streak.  It won't get any easier for a Saints offense that is averaging just 15.5 points per game in their last four games with a 4th-stringer at quarterback this week.

While the Saints are a mash unit right now, the Dolphins are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL.  And their offense gets a boost this week with the return of both WR Jaylen Waddle and RB Phillip Lindsay from the COVID list.  Waddle is crucial as he has quickly become Tua's favorite target.  He has 86 receptions for 849 yards and four touchdowns this season.  Tua is quietly playing very well with a 70% completion percentage this season.

Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after covering the spread in three of its last four games.  New Orleans is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The Saints are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS at home this season.  And this is definitely a potential letdown spot for the Saints off their big upset win over the Tampa Bay Bucs last week.  That win was aided by a ton of injuries and attrition throughout the game to Tampa's offense.  Bet the Dolphins Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Timberwolves UNDER 217.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are in a world of hurt right now, and I think it will lead to a low-scoring game tonight against the Boston Celtics.  They will be missing at least seven players tonight due to COVID and four of their top five scorers.

The Timberwolves will be without Karl Anthony-Towns (24.5 PPG), Anthony Edwards (22.1 PPG) and De'Angelo Russell (18.7 PPG, 6.7 APG).  They had been playing better with a healthy Russell back, and he makes them an OVER team.  Without him plus both those guys they are definitely an UNDER team because I don't know where the offense is going to come from.

The Celtics have six players OUT due to COVID and three more either probable or questionable.  One guy they will be missing that will impact this total is PG Dennis Schroder (16.3 PPG, 4.7 APG).  He is a guy that likes to push the tempo and create easy baskets for himself and his teammates.  Without Russell and Schroder, this is definitely an UNDER game.

The UNDER is 9-4-1 in Celtics last 14 road games.  The UNDER is 13-5 in Celtics' 18 games as a favorite this season.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Timberwolves last 11 Monday games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -5

The Chicago Bulls had five days off prior to beating the Pacers 113-105 last night.  So I'm not concerned about them having to play the 2nd of a back-to-back here, especially since they just got Zach LaVine and five others back from COVID last night.  They are a deep team and won't be tired anyway after having five days off prior to that game.

The Bulls should have plenty in the tank to blow out the short-handed Atlanta Hawks.  The Hawks have 12 players out due to either COVID or injuries.  That includes Trae Young, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Heurter, Lou Williams and John Collins.  They are without seven of their top 10 scorers and coming off an 87-101 loss to the Knicks on Christmas Day.

Chicago is 31-13 ATS in its last 44 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Atlanta is 3-11 ATS when playing a team with a winning record this season.  The Bulls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites.  The Hawks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight home games.  Atlanta is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take the Bulls Monday.

20* Washington/Cowboys NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Washington +10

I love the spot for the Washington Football Team tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 20-27 home loss to the Dallas Cowboys two weeks ago.  So this will be their 2nd meeting in 3 weeks.  And Washington lost QB Taylor Heineke in that game to injury.  He missed last week, but he will be back this week to give the offense a boost against the Cowboys.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys after going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  But they easily could have lost all three of those games.  They have benefited from being +8 in turnovers in those three games.  They beat the Saints 27-17 despite getting outgained by 28 yards.  Washington was driving to tie the game late in their 27-20 loss.  And the Cowboys only outgained the Giants by 26 yards in their 21-6 win.  They got to face backup quarterbacks in all three victories.

This Dallas offense just can't be trusted to lay this big of a number.  And their defense isn't as good as the points per game allowed would indicate.  The Cowboys rank 21st in total defense at 22nd against the pass this season.  They have simply benefited from being ball hawks, ranking 1st with 31 takeaways.  That is pretty unsustainable.

Washington is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.  Washington is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 trips to Dallas.  The underdog is 29-14 ATS in the last 43 meetings.  I know the Football Team will show up today to try and beat their hated rivals in the Cowboys.  It should be good enough to stay within this inflated double-digit spread tonight.  Roll with Washington Sunday.

15* Pacers/Bulls NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Chicago -6.5

The Chicago Bulls are champing at the bit to get back on the court.  They have been off since December 20th.  That can only be a good thing as this time off has allowed them to get healthy and get several players back from the COVID list.

The Bulls get Zach LaVine and five others back from COVID today.  They have compiled a 19-10 record this season despite battling through some COVID and injury issues.  They are one of the best teams in the NBA when healthy, and that is pretty much the case now here at the end of December.

The Indiana Pacers are just 14-19 this season, including 3-12 on the road.  They could be without their two best players in Malcolm Brogdon (achilles) and Domantas Sabonis (calf), who are both questionable.  But they haven't been playing well even when healthy with recent blowout road losses to the Heat by 29 and the Bucks by 15.  And it's worth noting the Heat were without Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo while the Bucks were without Giannis among others.

The Pacers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games playing on two days' rest.  The Bulls are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 Sunday games.  Chicago is 35-17 ATS in its last 52 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Bulls are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 games as favorites.  Take the Bulls Sunday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Oklahoma City Thunder PK

The Oklahoma City Thunder have quietly gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with three outright upset victories over the Clippers, Grizzlies and Nuggets.  They also covered in losses to the Pelicans and Suns.

Now the Thunder get their shot at revenge after a 110-113 home loss to the Pelicans on December 15th.  Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tied the game with a 3-pointer in the closing seconds, only to lose on a heave from beyond half court at the buzzer.  They haven't forgotten, and they will get their revenge.

While the Thunder are one of the healthiest teams in the NBA with nobody on the injury report, the same cannot be said for the Pelicans.  They have eight players on the injury report and will be without both Jonas Valanciunas and Nickeil Alexander-Walker tonight, which are their 2nd and 3rd-leading scorers behind Brandon Ingram.

The Pelicans are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.  New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last six Sunday games.  The Pelicans are 0-4 ATS in their last four games playing on two days' rest.  The Thunder are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.  Oklahoma City is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 Sunday games.  The Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on two days' rest.  Oklahoma City is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Thunder are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bears +6.5

The Seattle Seahawks just lost 20-10 on Tuesday to the Los Angeles Rams to fall to 5-9 on the season and assure a losing record.  That defeat eliminated them from playoff contention.  I think we see them very flat Sunday against the Chicago Bears because of it as they finally won't finish .500 or better with Russell Wilson.

The fact of the matter is the Seahawks aren't the better of these two teams anyway.  Chicago is much better than its 4-10 record would indicate.  And it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Bears after failing to cover the spread in five straight.  But they deserved to cover in almost all of those.

Indeed, the Bears have amazingly outgained five of their last six opponents.  They outgained the Steelers by 134 yards in their 27-29 road loss.  They outgained the Ravens by 54 yards in their 13-16 home loss.  They outgained the Lions by 139 yards in their 16-14 road win.  They outgained the Cardinals by 72 yards in their 22-33 home loss.  They did get outgained by 92 yards by the Pakcers on the road but held a 6-point halftime lead in that game.  And last week they outgained the Vikings by 177 yards in their 9-17 home loss.

At some point, the Bears are going to win the stats and the scoreboard.  I think this is the week against the Seahawks.  Chicago has the 9th-ranked defense in the NFL giving up just 326.2 yards per game.  Seattle ranks 31st in total defense, allowing 390.4 yards per game.  The Seahawks are also 30th in total offense at 303.4 yards per game, getting outgained by nearly 90 yards per game on the season.  That is the sign of a terrible team.

Chicago is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse.  Off the loss to the Rams on Tuesday, this is a short week for the Seahawks getting only four days to get ready for the Bears.  Nick Foles is not really a downgrade from Justin Fields and could provide this Chicago offense with a spark with his ability to stretch the field.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers +10

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Carolina Panthers.  They have gone 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  But that won't stop them from showing up against the defending Super Bowl champion and division rival Tampa Bay Bucs today.  They would love nothing more than to beat the Bucs here Sunday.

The Panthers should be getting Sam Darnold back today which will give the offense an added dimension.  They also will have a kicker, which they didn't have against Buffalo after he got hurt in pregame, which ultimately cost them the cover.  And their best receiver in DJ Moore has been upgraded to probable today.

This Carolina defense is one of the best in the NFL.  They rank 2nd in total defense at 294.4 yards per game.  They are also 2nd in passing defense, allowing just 178.8 yards per game.  That makes this an excellent matchup for them to be able to slow down Tom Brady and this Tampa Bay passing attack.

This Bucs' offensive attack got a lot less potent in their 9-0 loss to the Saints last week.  Injuries hit them hard in that game and they aren't any better this week.  The Bucs will now be without their top two receivers in Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.  They will also be without RB Leonard Fournette.  That's over 3,200 yards of offense and 27 combined touchdowns between those three.  Not to mention, their defense will be without S Antoine Winfield Jr, LB Lavonte David and DE Jason Pierre-Paul.  They also have a couple CB's questionable in the secondary.

Carolina is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games after four or more consecutive overs.  The Panthers are 60-37 ATS in their last 97 games following a loss by 10 or more points.  The Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.  Take the Panthers Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Liberty +8.5

The Liberty Flames are one of the better mid major teams in the country.  They have played a brutal schedule this season and already have wins over the likes of Missouri, Northern Iowa and East Carolina.  They only lost to Stanford by 3 last round and will give BYU a run for its money in this game tonight.

BYU has not impressed me at all lately.  They were upset by Utah Valley State as 13-point favorites. Creighton as 4.5-point favorites and Vanderbilt as 5-point favorites.  They should not be 8.5-point favorites over this game Liberty team tonight.

The Flames are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog.  Liberty is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 December games.  The Flams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  Roll with Liberty Saturday.

20* Warriors/Suns ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 215

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting between the Suns and Warriors since November 30th.  They combined for 200 points in that first meeting and 214 points in the 2nd meeting.  This 3rd meeting will stay UNDER this 215-point total as well.

A big reason the Warriors and Suns have the two best records in the NBA is because they are the top two defenses.  Indeed, the Warriors rank 1st in defensive efficiency, allowing just 99.3 points per 100 possessions.  The Suns are 2nd at 100.5 points per 100 possessions.

The Warriors are without some offensive firepower today as they will be without Jordan Poole (17.9 PPG) and Andrew Wiggins (18.7 PPG), their top two scorers behind Steph Curry.  Points will be a lot harder to come by for the Warriors, especially with 5th-leading scorer Damion Lee (8.4 PPG) out as well.

Golden State is 9-0 UNDER when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The UNDER is 10-0 in Warriors' 10 games against teams with winning records this season.  The UNDER is 12-0 in Warriors 12 games vs. good passing teams that average 23 or more assists this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Browns/Packers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Green Bay -7

The Green Bay Packers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL and it's a big reason they have the best record in the NFC at 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS this season.  And they have been unstoppable at home, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS while outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game.  You know it's going to be a great atmosphere for this home game against the Cleveland Browns at Lambeau Field on Christmas Day as well.

The Browns are a mess right now.  They are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  Their two wins came against the Lions and the Ravens and their backups QB by a combined 5 points.  They lost by 38 at New England, by 6 at Baltimore and at home to the lowly Raiders by 2.  They are still missing a ton of key players, and I think they are getting too much respect with Baker Mayfield coming back because he has been terrible this season.

Green Bay is 8-0 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow a completion percentage of 64% or worse this season.  This is a short week for the Browns after playing on Monday, so they have just four days to get ready for the Packers.  They haven't been practicing much as a team due to all of these COVID problems, so chemistry will continue to be a problem for them.  The Packers have been in sync since Week 1.  Take the Packers Saturday.

20* Ball State/Georgia State Camellia Bowl No-Brainer on Georgia State -5.5

Georgia State played as well as anyone in the Sun Belt down the stretch with the exception of perhaps conference champion Louisiana.  The Panthers rebounded from a 1-4 start by going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven games overall.  They are clearly excited to be playing in this bowl game because they earned it.

They upset Coastal Carolina as 12.5-point road underdogs.  Their only loss during this stretch came to Sun Belt champion Louisiana, 17-21 as 13.5-point road underdogs.  But they easily could have won that game and actually led with under three minutes to play.  Those efforts against Coastal and Louisiana show how good this team really is.

Ball State won the MAC last year and brought almost everyone back.  The Cardinals were huge disappointments this season finishing just 6-6.  Their last two wins came against Akron and Buffalo in non-impressive fashion against two of the worst teams in the MAC.  They managed just 230 total yards against Buffalo and were outgained by 106 yards despite winning.  They were outgained by 33 yards by Akron and needed to force a fumble at the goal line to escape with a 31-25 win as 20-point favorites.

This is a great matchup for Georgia State's offense.  The Panthers rank 8th in the country in rushing at 225 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  They will be up against a Ball State defense that allows 170 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry.  The Cardinals average just 335.9 yards per game on offense and give up 415.7 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by nearly 80 yards per game.  This simply isn't a very good Ball State team with those numbers.

Georgia State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  It is winning by 15.3 points per game in this spot.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against poor pass defenses that allow 62% completions or higher.  Georgia State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Cardinals are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.  Roll with Georgia State Saturday.

15* Spurs/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 223.5

The Lakers are missing so many players right now that they will have no other choice but to slow it down.  They are without Anthony Davis, Malik Monk, Avery Bradley, Austin Reaves and Kent Bazemore.  Look for them to continue slowing it down and run the offense through LeBron.

The Lakers are averaging just 101 points per game in their last five games.  They have been solid defensively in holding nine of their last 11 opponents to 110 points or fewer.  They are allowing just 103.1 points per game at the end of regulation in their last eight contests.

The Spurs are 11-3 UNDER in road games this season.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Spurs' last nine road games revenging a loss this season.  The Lakers are 30-16 UNDER in their last 46 games with a total of 220 to 229.5.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Lakers last eight games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Lakers last six games as favorites.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Suns UNDER 214.5

The Phoenix Suns are one of the best teams in the NBA this season due to ranking 2nd in defensive efficiency.  They'll be up against an Oklahoma City team that ranks 29th in offensive efficiency tonight.

But the Thunder have been getting after it defensively of late in holding three straight opponents to 103 points or less and an average of 98.7 points per game.  The Thunder will be tired tonight playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 108-94 win over Denver last night, so they won't be looking to push the tempo.

The UNDER is 9-2 in Thunder last 11 games following a win.  The UNDER is 5-1 in Thunder last six games overall.  The UNDER is 67-32-1 in Thunder last 100 games as road underdogs.  The UNDER is 19-11 in Thunder's 30 games this season, while the UNDER is 17-12-1 in Suns' 30 games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* 49ers/Titans Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on San Francisco -3

The San Francisco 49ers are a freight train right now.  They are playing as well as almost anyone in the NFL in going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They were supposed to be one of the best teams in the NFL coming into the season but were hurt by injuries in the first half.  Now that they've been a lot healthier they are playing up to their potential.

The 49ers made easy work of the Falcons in a 31-13 home victory last week.  So they should still have plenty left in the tank for this short week game against Tennessee.  They would be bigger favorites in this game if not for the short week and the West Coast team traveling East.  But the 49ers have dominated when flying out East in recent seasons.

The Titans were grossly overvalued due to a great start this season behind Derrick Henry.  But since Henry went down, the Titans have been awful.  They have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are broken on offense, scoring 23 or fewer points in five straight games and an average of just 16.4 points per game in their last five.

The Titans have passed for less than 200 yards in five of their last six games because they have also been without both AJ Brown and Julio Jones at times.  Brown should be back this week, but Jones suffered a hamstring injury last week and is questionable.  They still aren't the same team without Henry, Brown and Jones all healthy and they are only likely to have one of the three.

Tennessee has been relying heavily on running the football offensively even without Henry.  But that's not going to work against the 49ers.  They have allowed 86 or fewer rushing yards in five of their last six games overall.  And the Titans have struggled despite playing five straight bad offensive teams in the Saints, Texans, Jaguars, Steelers and Patriots.  The Titans will be without two starters on the offensive line as well in Taylor Lewan and Rodger Saffold.

Now they take a big step up in class here against a 49ers offense that is rolling since getting George Kittle and Deebo Samuel healthy.  The 49ers have scored 23 or more points in six straight games and an average of 29.2 points per game.  Samuel has seven rushing touchdowns and 1,088 receiving yards on the season.  Kittle has 28 receptions for 425 yards and three touchdowns over the last three weeks.  Bet the 49ers Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Wizards PK

The Washington Wizards come in on four days' rest having last played on December 18th in a 109-103 upset win at Utah as 9.5-point underdogs.  Not only are the rested and ready to go, but they are one of the healthiest teams in the NBA right now.

The same cannot be said for the New York Knicks.  They are just 3-8 SU in their last 11 games overall and decimated by COVID and injuries right now.  They will be without Quentin Grimes, RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox, Immanuel Quickley, Derrick Rose and Nerlens Noel tonight.

Plays on road teams (Washington) - after losing five or six of their last seven games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.

The Knicks are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  New York is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  The Wizards are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 trips to New York.  Take the Wizards Thursday.

20* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE WEEK Miami Ohio/North Texas on OVER 54.5

Two offenses that are better than they get credit for square off in the Frisco Football Classic in this matchup between the Miami Ohio Redhawks and North Texas Mean Green Thursday.  Look for a shootout that easily tops this 54.5-point total today.

North Texas won five straight games to close the season behind an offense that put up 36.4 points per game during the winning streak.  They rushed for over 300 yards three times and are an elite rushing offense.  They should be able to run the ball at will on a Miami Ohio defense that gave up 161 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry this season.

Miami Ohio has scored 33 or more points in five of its last six games overall.  They passes for 351 or more yards in three of their last four games.  Brett Gabbert is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country with a 24-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  They should be able to move the ball through the air on a North Texas defense that allows 7.7 yards per attempt while the Redhawks average 8.3 yards per pass attempt.

North Texas has played in shootouts in each of its last four bowl games because it always has a good offense and terrible defense.  They combined for 84 points with Appalachian State last year, 65 points with Utah State in 2018, 80 points with Troy in 2017 and 69 points with Army in 2016.  All four combined totals would easily top this 54.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Rockets +10.5

The Milwaukee Bucks have been a juggernaut when Giannis, Middleton and Holiday have been on the floor at the same time this season.  Unfortunately for them, that has been few and far between.  And the Bucks are not only without Giannis tonight, but also the underrated Bobby Portis.

Milwaukee has gone just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in its last three games overall with losses to the Celtics by 14, the Pelicans in overtime and the Cavaliers by 29.  There's no way they should be a double-digit favorite against the Houston Rockets without Giannis and Portis.

This is a Rockets team that is about as healthy as any team in the NBA right now and playing well over the past month.  The Rockets are 9-5 SU & 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.  They lost by 9 at home to a healthy Bucks team during this stretch on December 10th and will be out for revenge here tonight.

Milwaukee is just 1-12 ATS in its last 13 vs. Southwest Division opponents.  The Bucks are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Milwaukee is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Rockets are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings and haven't lost any of the last five meetings by more than 9 points.  Roll with the Rockets Wednesday.

15* Missouri/Army Armed Forces Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Army -3.5

The Army Black Knights completed an 8-4 season under head coach Jeff Monken and continue to be a powerhouse.  And I think we are getting them cheap in the Armed Forces Bowl against Missouri due to getting upset by Navy in their regular season finale.  But that was Navy's National Championship because they weren't going bowling.  

Army knew they had this bowl game on deck, and they'll be looking to cap off the season on a high note.  The loss to Navy only makes them even more motivated, and they'll have no problem getting up to face a team from the SEC in Missouri here to showcase how good they really are.

This will be Army's third trip to the Armed Forces Bowl in Monken's run of five bowl games in the past six seasons.  They upset San Diego State 42-35 in 2017 and crushed Houston 70-14 in 2018.  The Black Knights are now 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.  Their triple-option is tough for opponents to prepare for.

That will definitely be the case for Missouri as this is the perfect matchup for Army.  The Black Knights ranked 2nd in the country in averaging 287 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry.  Missouri ranks 124th in the country against the run, allowing 229 rushing yards per game and a whopping 5.5 yards per carry.  Army is going to be able to run the ball at will on this putrid Missouri defense.

The Tigers aren't a great passing team, averaging 6.6 yards per pass, and defending the pass is Army's weakness.  The matchup is a good one for this Army defense, too.  They give up just 111 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry.  That will make life difficult on a Missouri offense that relies heavily on the run at 180 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.

Missouri is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Tigers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Missouri is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 December games.  The Black Knights are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 December games.  The Tigers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  Monken is 9-1 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 points or less as the coach of the Black Knights.  Take Army Wednesday.

Update: This line has moved in Army's favor since I published it early in the week due to the SEC's leading rusher being out for Missouri.  Tyler Badie's absence is a huge blow to the Missouri offense as he had 1,942 yards from scrimmage and 18 touchdowns, including 1,612 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.  I would still recommend a play at -6.5, but this play will be graded at -3.5.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oral Roberts/South Dakota State OVER 162.5

Oral Roberts and South Dakota State are both fast-tempo teams and offensive juggernauts that play little defense.  The Jackrabbits average 87.4 points per game this season while the Golden Eagles put up 81.1 points per game.  Both shoot a ton of 3-pointers and shoot them well with South Dakota State at 44.3% as a team and Oral Roberts at 39.5% as a team.

This total has been set too low based on the three meetings between these teams last season, and both teams have almost all their players back.  They combined for 189, 175 and 178 points in their three meetings last season.  This total has been set at just 162.5, so there is plenty of value with the OVER.

South Dakota State is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games after playing a home game.  The Jackrabbits are 9-0 OVER in their last nine games off a blowout home win by 20 points or more.  South Dakota State is 8-0 OVER in its last eight games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  The OVER is 45-15 in Golden Eagles last 60 games following an ATS win.  The OVER is 20-6 in Jackrabbits last 26 home games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Murray State/Auburn SEC Network ANNIHILATOR on Murray State +12.5

Murray State is 10-1 this season and getting zero respect from oddsmakers today as 12.5-point underdogs to Auburn.  We'll take advantage and back the Racers in a game I believe they take the Tigers to the wire.

Murray State already went on the road and upset Memphis as a 10-point underdog, so they have proven they can hang with the big boys.  And I look at this as a letdown spot for the Tigers, who are coming off a 74-70 win at Saint Louis and have their SEC opener against LSU on deck.  This is a sandwich and lookahead spot for Auburn.

Matt McMahon is 9-1 ATS in road games after scoring 85 points or more in two straight games as the coach of Murray State.  Bruce Pearl is 10-19 ATS in home games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game as the coach of Auburn.  The Tigers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Murray State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Illinois +11

San Francisco is coming off five straight huge games against UAB, UNLV, Fresno State, Grand Canyon and Arizona State with four of them decided by 8 points or fewer.  This is an obvious letdown spot for them with Southern Illinois coming to town.  Not to mention, the Dons are tired playing their 3rd game in 5 days here.

Southern Illinois has impressed me this season with its 7-4 start with three of the four losses coming by 4 points or fewer.  The Salukis are that close to being a 10-1 team.  I love how they get after it defensively in holding opponents to 58.5 points per game and nearly 8 points per game below their season averages.

The Dons are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 games overall as they have consistently been overrated.  The Dons are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as favorites.  San Francisco is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games following a win.  The Salukis are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. good shooting teams that make at least 45% of their shots.  Take Southern Illinois Wednesday.

20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5

The Indiana Pacers have gone 4-2 SU in their last six games overall with their only losses coming to the Warriors (by 2) and the Bucks on the road.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NBA right now and should be able to handle the short-handed Miami Heat tonight.

The Heat are coming off an upset loss to the lowly Detroit Pistons as 6.5-point favorites.  They are without Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Markieff Morris, PJ Tucker and Caleb Martin.  They would be without Tyler Herro, who is questionable.  They won't even be able to compete with a team the caliber of Indiana without these guys.

The Pacers have had the last four days off, so they are fresh and ready to go.  Indiana is 39-19-2 ATS in its last 60 games playing on 3 or more days' rest.  The Pacers are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Pacers Tuesday.

20* SDSU/UTSA Frisco Bowl No-Brainer on UTSA +3

The UTSA Roadrunners went 12-1 this season with their only loss coming in a meaningless game against North Texas in the regular season finale.  They were coming off their huge win against UAB to clinch their spot in the C-USA title game, and they had that game on deck against Western Kentucky.  North Texas needed the win to make a bowl game so it was just the perfect storm for the Roadrunners to lose that game.

They rebounded with a dominant 49-41 win over Western Kentucky in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They led 42-13 before the Hilltoppers made a late run with their dynamic passing game, which they always seem to do.  And beating Western Kentucky twice this season looks even better now with how well Conference USA looks in bowl games thus far.

Middle Tennessee won outright against Toledo as a double-digit dog, Western Kentucky upset Appalachian State 59-38, UAB upset BYU 31-28 and UTEP covered as a double-digit dog in a 24-31 loss to Fresno State.  The conference is 4-1 ATS in bowl games already with the only non-cover coming on Marshall after getting outscored by 20 points in the 4th quarter of a 36-21 loss to Louisiana (13-1).

San Diego State went 11-2 this season but lost badly 46-13 to Utah State in the Mountain West Championship Game.  I don't see them being all that motivated to play UTSA after losing that game.  The Aztecs have six wins by one score this season and aren't as good as their record.

I like the matchup for UTSA because their weakness on defense is against the pass, and San Diego State only averages 25 pass attempts and 158 passing yards per game.  The Aztecs rely on the run to move the football, and UTSA ranks 11th in the country in yards per carry (3.2) allowed while giving up just 111 rushing yards per game.

UTSA will be the more motivated team to get to 13 wins and capture their first bowl win in program history.  The Roadrunners will also have the home-field advantage with thsi game being played in Frisco, Texas.  The fans sold out their home game against Western Kentucky in the C-USA Championship Game and it was a huge advantage.  They will travel the four hours to support their team here in Frisco, too.

UTSA is 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Roadrunners are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  UTSA is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog.  The Aztecs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  Roll with UTSA Tuesday.

20* NFC West GAME OF THE MONTH on Seattle Seahawks +7

This is already a terrible spot for the Los Angeles Rams.  They are coming off an upset road win over the Arizona Cardinals on Monday Night Football.  Now they stay within the division to take on a Seattle Seahawks team that is starting to play up to their potential as they try and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Now things have really gotten worse for the Rams.  They now have placed 25 players on the COVID list, including CB Jalen Ramsey, WR Odell Beckham Jr., LB Von Miller and four other starters.  They will get some guys back that they wouldn't have had if they played Sunday, but they still shouldn't be 7-point favorites in this game.

The Seahawks want revenge from a 26-17 home loss to the Rams in their first meeting this season.  Russell Wilson was knocked out of that game early and replaced by Geno Smith.  I like their chances for getting revenge and covering at the very least considering they are the much healthier team and playing up to their potential the last two weeks.

Indeed, the Seahawks are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two games.  They upset the 49ers 30-23 as 2.5-point home underdogs.  They followed it up with a dominant 33-13 win at Houston as 9.5-point favorites behind 453 yards of offense.  Russell Wilson is starting to play like his old self as he has gotten healthier, and the Seahawks have rushed for 146 and 193 yards in their last two games, respectively.

Pete Carroll is 49-28 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Seattle.  Los Angeles is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Seahawks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as underdogs.  The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as favorites.  Bet the Seahawks Tuesday.

15* Washington/Eagles NFC East ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -6

The Philadelphia Eagles are in a great spot this week.  They are coming off their bye week and expected to get Jalen Hurts back at quarterback.  They should be as healthy as they have been all season and get their dynamic RB duo of Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard back.

The Eagles are really playing well right now in going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with all three victories coming by double-digits.  The lone loss was fluky as they were -4 in turnovers against the Giants and only lost by 6 on the road.  They clearly should have won that game.

Now they take on a banged-up Washington team that has as bad an injury report as any team in the NFL right now.  QB Taylor Heineke and WR Terry McLaurin both left the Dallas game last week with injuries.  Both are questionable to return this week.

They have 10 players in COVID protocol including DL Matt Ionnidis, backup QB Kyle Allen, CB Kendall Fuller, DL Jonathan Allen and a couple linebackers.  They are already without Chase Young and cannot afford to lose all these guys up front.  They will get some players back that they wouldn't have had if this game was played on Sunday, but the Eagles were double-digit favorites then.  Now we are getting the Eagles as less than a TD favorite here.

This is a tired Washington team that has played five straight games that were decided by 10 points or fewer, including four one-score games in their last four.  But they were getting blown out by Dallas last week before a late rally.  I don't see them rallying against the Eagles this week.

The Eagles are ready to make a playoff push as they get three winnable home games plus Washington twice down the stretch.  They have rushed for at least 176 yards in six straight games now and should be able to run all over this depleted Washington front seven.  The Eagles are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take the Eagles Tuesday.

15* Xavier/Villanova Big East ANNIHILATOR on Xavier +6.5

Xavier continues to get no respect from oddsmakers as a 6.5-point underdog to Villanova tonight.  All the Musketeers have done is go 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS this season with their only loss coming to a Top 10 Iowa State team.  

They have gotten healthy and with Freemantle back and are rolling right now going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  That includes wins by 9 over Marquette, by 23 over Morehead State, by 20 over Cincinnati, by 46 over Ball State, by 6 at Oklahoma State as underdogs, by 33 over Central Michigan and by 1 over Virginia Tech as underdogs in those seven games.

Villanova clearly isn't as good as they were supposed to be coming into the season, but oddsmakers keep pricing them like they are.  They have lost to all the best teams they have faced in UCLA, Purdue, Baylor and Creighton.  The last two losses were very concerning as they lost 36-57 at Baylor and 59-79 at Creighton despite being a 7-point favorite.

Xavier is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 8-plus points per game.  The Musketeers are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games as underdogs.  Roll with Xavier Tuesday.

15* CBB BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE DAY on Toledo -3.5

The Toledo Rockets are one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  They are 7-3 this season with two of their losses coming on the road to both Michigan State and Richmond in games taht they covered the spread in competitive losses.

Toledo should handle this Marshall team that remains overrated.  The Thundering Herd are 3-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their three wins during this stretch came against Duquesne (by 1), Eastern Kentucky and Bluefield College.  They lost by 10 to Ohio, but 15 to Northern Iowa and also lost to another MAC team in Akron.  Toledo is better than both Ohio and Akron.

Toledo has owned Marshall in recent seasons, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  The Thundering Herd are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games vs. good free throw shooting teams that make 72% or better.  Marshall is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game.  Take Toledo Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Elon +22

Elon has already shown they can stay within big numbers against some good teams this season.  They lost by 17 to North Carolina, by 13 to Florida, by 19 to West Virginia and by 18 to Ole Miss.  Their only really bad loss came to Duke by 31.  So as you can see, they have played one of the toughest schedules in the country.

I expect Elon to stay within 22 points of Arkansas tonight.  The Razorbacks were overvalued due to playing a home-heavy, easy schedule en route to a 9-0 start.  They finally played a true road game and lost by 22 at Oklahoma.  They followed up up with an upset loss to Hofstra as a 12.5-point favorite.  And they have no business laying 22 points to Elon tonight.

Elon is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games after losing eight or more of its last 10 games.  The Phoenix is 6-2-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The Razorbacks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet Elon Tuesday.

20* Vikings/Bears ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota -5.5

The Minnesota Vikings are one of the best 6-7 teams in the history of the NFL.  They have held at least a 6-point lead in all 13 games this season and are clearly better than their record.  But they are still alive for the playoffs, and this is a must-win game for them Monday night in Chicago.

Minnesota got Dalvin Cook back from injury last week and he ran wild on the Steelers in a 36-28 victory last Thursday.  The Vikings had 458 total yards and a 29-0 lead on the Steelers, so it was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  Now this is like a mini-bye week for the Vikings, so they should be fresh and ready to go with three extra days' rest.  They are also one of the healthier teams in the NFL.

The same cannot be said for the Bears, who have 12 players on the COVID list and three coordinators now.  Offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, defensive coordinator Sean Desai and special teams coordinator Chris Tabor were all working remotely Thursday.  They are likely to be without WR Allen Robinson and DEB Eddie Jackson among many other key players.

This is a bad spot for the Bears as it is even without the COVID news.  At 4-9 now, they have no chance of making the playoffs.  They just blew a 27-21 halftime lead against the Packers and were outscored 24-3 after intermission in a 45-30 loss.  They were fortunate to even be in that game thanks to several big special teams plays.  They won't be so fortunate against this motivated Vikings team to keep this one close for long.

Chicago is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games vs. NFC opponents.  The Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.  Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Take the Vikings Monday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma City Thunder +8.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall and are way more competitive than they get credit for.  Look for them to stay within this lofty number against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

While the Thunder are rested playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, the Grizzlies will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 100-105 home loss to Portland last night.  It will also be the 8th game in 13 days for the Grizzlies.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Memphis as it is considering they are 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They have done most of this without Ja Morant and being short-handed without Brandon Clark and a few others as well.  But now these injuries will start to catch up with them in this tough rest spot tonight.

Oklahoma City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after losing two of its last three games.  The Thunder are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Oklahoma City is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games as an underdog.  Memphis is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  

Finally, Oklahoma City wants revenge from the worst loss in NBA history, a 79-152 loss at Memphis on December 2nd earlier this month.  You know they are going to be motivated to avenge that defeat.  And their best player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (21.6 PPG) did not play in that game and he is playing at an All-Star level right now.  Bet the Thunder Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Thomas -2.5

Nebraska-Omaha is one of the worst teams in the country.  They are 1-10 this season and losing by 18.0 points per game on average.  They haven't won a game since their 67-57 victory over Hastings College in their opener.  All 10 losses have come by 4 points or more and eight of them by double-digits.

St. Thomas has been competent this season at 4-5 and 4-2 ATS in lined games.  Four of their five losses came by 10 points or fewer.  They were competitive in losses to Drake and Montana State recently, which are two of the better mid-major programs.  They should handle Nebraska-Omaha here.

The Tommies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  St. Thomas is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The Mavericks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games.  Omaha is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog.  Roll with St. Thomas Monday.

20* Tulsa/Old Dominion ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Old Dominion +9

Old Dominion didn't even play last season due to COVID.  Monarchs head coach Ricky Rahne had a tall task ahead of him.  That showed early in the season as the Monarchs opened 1-6.  But they have since going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS to get to 6-6 and earn a bowl bid.

It's safe to say Old Dominion will be highly motivated for a bowl victory after fighting so hard at the end of the season just to get here.  And it will be just the second bowl game in program history, adding to the motivation.

The turnaround for the Monarchs came when freshman QB Hayden Wolff replaced UCF transfer Darriel Mack Jr. midseason.  He completed 62.2% of his passes and was way more elusive than Mack Jr, leading the Monarchs to a 5-1 record in his six starts down the stretch.

Tulsa also had a nice finish just to make this bowl game, but I don't think the Golden Hurricane can be trusted to lay this big of a number.  They are 6-6 as well but five of those six wins came by one score.  Their only blowout victory came against lowly Temple, which finished 1-7 in AAC play.

Tulsa QB Davis Brin had a 16-to-16 TD/INT ratio this season.  The Golden Hurricane rely heavily on the run to move the football.  That makes this a great matchup for the Monarchs.  They give up just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, ranking in the Top 25 in the country against the run.

Conference USA has looked impressive in bowl games thus far.  Middle Tennessee won outright against Toledo as a double-digit dog, Western Kentucky upset Appalachian State 59-38, UAB upset BYU 31-28 and UTEP covered as a double-digit dog in a 24-31 loss to Fresno State.  The conference is 4-1 ATS in bowl games already with the only non-cover coming on Marshall after getting outscored by 20 points in the 4th quarter of a 36-21 loss to Louisiana (13-1).  Tulsa is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games vs. C-USA opponents.  Bet Old Dominion Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on San Antonio Spurs -4.5

The San Antonio Spurs are one of the healthiest teams in the NBA and it is showing with their play. They have gone 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and coming off an upset win at Utah as 11.5-point underdogs.

The Spurs are rested and ready to go tonight playing just their 3rd game in 7 days. They should make easy work of a struggling Sacramento Kings team that is just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their last three losses coming by 14 points or more.

Things aren't getting any better for the Kings any time soon due to COVID hitting them hard. They will be without De'Aaron Rox, Marvin Bagley, Alex Len, Terence Davis and Davion Mitchell tonight. They could also be without Richaun Holmes, who is questionable.

The Spurs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as favorites. The Kings are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as home underdogs. Sacramento is 0-5 ATS in its last five Sunday games. San Antonio is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with all three wins by 9 points or more. Bet the Spurs Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Falcons +9

The San Francisco 49ers were fortunate to win last week at Cincinnati. The Bengals gave that game away by muffing two punts in their own territory. The 49ers recovered all four fumbles in the game. And they still needed overtime to beat the Bengals, 26-23.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the 49ers even though I like this team. They are now laying way too many points at home against the Atlanta Falcons, who are still in playoff contention at 6-7 this season. And while the 49ers have struggled at home in recent years, the Falcons have been a great bet on the road.

Indeed, the Falcons are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS away from home this season. They have upset wins over the Giants, Dolphins, Saints and Panthers. And they have a great path to the playoffs if they can pull another upset here because they have Detroit on deck next week.

The 49ers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games. San Francisco is 16-34-1 ATS in its last 51 games as a home favorite. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -17.5

I expect the Oklahoma Sooners to be one of the most improved teams in the country from the beginning of the season to the end. That's because they have one of the best head coaches in the country in Porter Moser, who is in his first year at Oklahoma.

The Sooners are 8-2 SU this season with their two losses coming by a combined 7 points. They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall with impressive wins over Florida, Arkansas and UCF. They just blasted Arkansas by 22 points last time out.

Now the Sooners have had a full week to get ready for UT-Arlington having last played on December 11th. They'll be rested and ready to destroy a 3-6 Arlington team that already has blowout losses to Oklahoma State by 37, North Texas by 28 and Utah State by 19.

Arlington is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game. The Mavericks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Arlington is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 road games. Moser is 21-9 ATS as a head coach in home games after scoring 80 points or more. Take Oklahoma Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Pittsburgh Steelers ML +103

The Pittsburgh Steelers sit at 6-6-1 and are playing for their playoff lives this week.  Look for a big effort from them.  I always like backing Mike Tomlin off a loss and as an underdog.  And I think the wrong team is favored in this game Sunday.

The Steelers are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now and are expected to have T.J. Watt this week, one of the best defensive players in the NFL.  The same cannot be said for the Titans, who have 20 players out and another eight questionable.

Tennessee's offense has hit the skids since losing both Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown to injury, their two best players.  In their last five games, the Titans managed just 194 yards against the Rams, 264 yards against the Saints, 13 points in an upset loss to the Texans as 10.5-point favorites, 13 points against New England and just 263 yards against Jacksonville.

The Steelers have managed 300 or more yards in five straight games offensively.  They have by far the better offense right now, and I rank these teams pretty even defensively.  Plus you have to give the Steelers a few points for home-field advantage and simply needing the game more.  It all adds up to the wrong team being favored.

Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 35 points or more.  Tennessee is 3-17 ATS in its last 20 games vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Titans are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take the Steelers on the Money Line Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Lions +13

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Detroit Lions this week.  They have not quit and continue to get the money for backers.  And their 38-10 loss to Denver was very misleading last week.  They were only outgained by 42 yards despite missing a ton of players due to COVID, but they had two turnovers in the red zone.

Now the Lions will get back several players they were missing last week.  And they will relish this opportunity to try and beat the team with the best record in the NFC in the Arizona Cardinals.  The Lions have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to improve to 8-5 ATS this season.  So despite their 1-11-1 SU record, they continue fighting for bettors' money.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals, who are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS on the road this season with all seven wins by double-digits.  Odds are they can't keep this streak going now that the books have over-adjusted for it this week.  The Cardinals will be without their best receiver in De'Andre Hopkins, who suffered a possible season-ending injury last week.

They also have their top two running backs in James Conner and Chase Edmonds questionable.  Not to mention, this is a terrible spot for the Cardinals.  They are on a short week after losing 30-23 at home tot he Rams on Monday Night Football.  And they have a big game on deck against the Colts on Saturday.  They will be just looking to get in and get out with a win against the Lions with zero incentive to run up the score.

Detroit is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games following a loss by 28 points or more.  Arizona is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games. vs. poor pass defenses that allow 7.5 or more yards per attempt in the 2nd half of the season.  The Lions are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.  Detroit is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game.  The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The home team is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Detroit.  Roll with the Lions Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They have gone 9-2 SU in their last 11 games with all nine wins coming by double-digits!

The two losses were to the Jazz by 1 and the Bucks by 8. Now they have a chance to avenge that defeat to the Bucks, who are in a terrible spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a 112-116 (OT) loss in New Orleans last night.

It will also be the 11th game in 18 days in December for the Bucks. Making matters worse is that they will be without Giannis antetokoumpho, Bobby Portis and Wesley Matthews and could be without Khris Middleton, who is questionable. I don't give them much of a chance against the Cavaliers tonight without Giannis and in this awful rest spot. Bet the Cavaliers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Washington Wizards +10.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Washington Wizards tonight after going 1-7 SU & 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. They are now catching double-digits against the Utah Jazz. The Wizards are as healthy as they have been in a while and should give the Jazz a run for their money tonight.

The reason is simple. This is a terrible spot for the Jazz. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a hard-fought 126-128 upset loss to the San Antonio Spurs as 11.5-point favorites last night. Now they come back as 10.5-point favorites tonight against a better Washington team, which makes no sense. Take the Wizards Saturday.

20* Auburn/Saint Louis CBB No-Brainer on Saint Louis +5.5

The Saint Louis Billikens are one of the better mid-majors programs in the country under Travis Ford. They are 8-3 SU & 6-4 ATS this season with two of their three losses coming by 5 points or fewer.

The Billikens are battle-tested in the early going with wins over Stephen F. Austin, Boise State and Boston College as well as losses to Memphis, UAB and Belmont. They are ready to take on an Auburn team that has feasted on a weak schedule and is overrated.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after opening 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS this season. This will be just their 2nd true road game of the season as they have played a home-heavy schedule. The first was a shaky 58-52 win at South Florid as 13-point favorites and that is a terrible Bulls team.

Saint Louis is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games after playing two consecutive home games. The Billikens are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 home games. Saint Louis is 42-20 ATS in its last 62 games as an underdog. Auburn is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite. Roll with Saint Louis Saturday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indianapolis Colts ML -130

The Indianapolis Colts might be the most underrated team in the NFL right now.  They are just 7-6 but much better than that record.  They are outscoring their opponents by nearly 7 points per game on the season with a balanced offense and a very good defense that allows just 21.8 points per game.

The Colts opened 0-3 amid injuries and poor play.  They have since gone 7-3 SU in their last 10 games overall and are very close to being on a 10-game winning streak.  They blew a 19-point lead and lost in OT to the Ravens, lost in OT at home to the Titans after another late blown lead, and blew a 14-point lead to the Bucs in a last-second loss.  The fact that they competed with those three teams and took them all to the wire tells all you need to know about the Colts' potential.

The Patriots are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Now it's time to 'sell high' on the Patriots this week.  They aren't nearly as good as their 9-4 record would indicate.  And the bye actually came at a bad time for them because they had all the momentum, stopping the Bills twice in the Red Zone to preserve a 14-10 victory last time out.  They have feasted on the 5th-easiest schedule in the NFL this season.  They come back down to reality this week against the Colts, who beat the Bills 41-15 on the road a couple weeks ago.

Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt.  The Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a division game.  Indianapolis is 24-7-1 ATS in its last 32 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in its previous game.  The Colts are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Colts on the Money Line Saturday.

15* CBB BLOWOUT PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia -1.5

Georgia should be a bigger favorite at home over George Mason tonight. After a rough start to the season against a brutal schedule, the Bulldogs have turned the corner.

They had tough losses to Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Northwestern and Wofford in a 2-5 start. But they have since put together two straight great performances in an upset win over Memphis as 11.5-point dogs and a cover against Jacksonville as 9-point favorites.

Now the Bulldogs take on a reeling George Mason team that is just 1-5 SU & 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall. The lone win was a 71-65 home victory over Navy which is far from impressive. They also lost to Old Dominion by 10, James Madison, Washington, South Dakota State and Nevada by 19. Roll with Georgia Saturday.

15* South Carolina/Clemson CBB ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina +8.5

Frank Martin always seems to have his South Carolina Gamecocks flying under the radar. That appears to be the case again this season as the Gamecocks are off to an 8-2 SU & 5-4 ATS start this season.

Indeed, the Gamecocks have already pulled off upset wins over UAB and Florida State as well as a 13-point win over Georgetown, an 11-point win over Wofford and an 11-point win over Western Kentucky.

Clemson is 7-4 this season with losses to Rutgers, Miami, West Virginia and St. Bonaventure. The Tigers don't have many impressive wins as their seven victories have come against Miami Ohio, Drake, Charleston, Temple, Bryant, Wofford and Presbyterian. So Wofford is a common opponent and they beat them by 8 while South Carolina beat them by 11, both at home.

South Carolina is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games after a home win where it scored 85 points or more. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, including a 67-54 upset win by the Gamecocks as 6-point road dogs in their last meeting. Take South Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Michigan +9.5

The Liberty Flames had high expectations this season after going 10-1 last year and beating Coastal Carolina in the Cure Bowl to finish No. 17 in the polls.  The Flames opened 7-2 this season before finishing with three straight losses to Ole Miss, Louisiana and Army all by double-digits and by a combined 56 points.

Now I question the Flames' motivation heading into the LendingTree Bowl sitting at 7-5.  They go from playing unbeaten Coastal Carolina in their bowl game last year to playing a 7-5 Eastern Michigan team from the MAC.  I don't think they will be all that motivated, and they are being asked to win by double-digits to beat us.

I know Eastern Michigan is going to be motivated.  In fact, the Eagles haven't won a bowl game since 1987.  They didn't go to another bowl until 2016.  They have since lost three straight bowl games all by 4 points or fewer, covering the spread in all three bowl games.  It's safe to say they are highly motivated to cash in that first bowl victory.

Eastern Michigan has been the king of one-score games under head coach Chris Creighton, which is why there's a ton of value getting them as +9.5 dogs.  Dating back to the middle of 2019, Eastern Michigan has 14 losses.  A whopping 10 of those have come by 8 points or fewer.  So they have lost just four of their last 26 games by more than 8 points to put it better.

This Eastern Michigan offense is never going to be out of the game.  They score 31.0 points per game on the season.  QB Ben Bryant is completing 68.8% of his passes for 2,921 yards with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio.  They will be opposed by a similar Liberty offense that averages 31.8 points per game on the season.

Eastern Michigan is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 road games following a blowout road loss by 21 points or more.  The Eagles are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt.  Eastern Michigan is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS loss.  The Eagles are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU loss.  Eastern Michigan is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games as an underdog.  Take Eastern Michigan in the LendingTree Bowl.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Canisus +15.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on this 2-9 Canisius team that just doesn't get blown out. Eight of their nine losses have come by 14 points or fewer, so within this 15.5-point spread.

This is a terrible spot for Buffalo. They are coming off two straight huge road games against St. Bonaventure and Western Kentucky and won't be nearly as motivated for this game with Canisius. It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulls after opening 6-1 ATS in their lined games this season.

Canisius is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good rebounding teams that average 4-plus boards more than their opponent per game. The Golden Griffins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs. Bet Canisius Saturday.

20* Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB +7

I think UAB wants to be here more than BYU.  And I like the matchup for the Blazers.  BYU just completed a 10-2 season and knocked off several Pac-12 opponents along the way.  They feel like they deserve a better bowl game than the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana.

I've actually been to a bowl game in Shreveport when Iowa State played last.  It's kind of a dump in and around the stadium.  No offense to anyone that lives there reading this writeup, but it's not the greatest destination.  BYU thought they had an outside shot of playing in a New Year's 6 Bowl.

It is a pretty short drive for UAB fans from Birmingham to Shreveport just over 6 hours.  I think it will be like a home game for the Blazers.  "I'm really proud of our selection to the bowl game, and man, what a great opponent we've got in BYU," Clark said on Monday. "I know our players are all going to be excited for the challenge ahead."

And the weather is going to help UAB keep this game close.  There's a 90% chance of precipitation Saturday with 15 MPH winds, too.  This game will mostly be played on the ground.  UAB prefers to run the football, averaging 177 rushing yards per game.  They should be able to run the ball on a BYU defense that gives up 151 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

BYU also likes to run the ball at 188 rushing yards per game.  But the strength of UAB's team is their front 7 defensively.  They give up just 105 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry this season.  In their last three games against pretty good rushing teams they held Marshall to 37 yards on 21 carries, UTSA to 52 yards on 34 carries and UTEP to 99 yards on 30 carries.

UAB is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more yards per game this season.  BYU is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games off two consecutive road wins.  The Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  BYU fans have come out and said they are less than thrilled to be playing UAB.  Meanwhile, it has been a different story for UAB fans and head coach Bill Clark and his players.  Roll with UAB in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are fully healthy and a dangerous team when that is the case. That has shown in their last two games as they have pulled outright road upsets over the Blazers 116-111 and Nuggets 124-107.

Having De'Angelo Russell healthy has really made all the difference for this game. With him, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards on the floor at the same time the Timberwolves are capable of beating anyone. They will take down the short-handed Lakers tonight.

The Timberwolves are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 6th game in 14 days. The Lakers won their last three games against three short-handed, terrible teams in the Thunder, Magic and Mavericks. Now they take a step up in class here and it's time to 'sell high'. 

The Lakers will be without Russell Westbrook, Avery Braldey, Malik Monk, Talen Horton-Tucker and Dwight Howard tonight due to COVID. Los Angeles is 7-25 ATS in its last 32 games following a win. Take the Timberwolves Friday.

15* CBB Friday UPSET SHOCKER on Tarleton State ML +105

I love the spot for Tarleton State tonight. This is a home-and-home situation. After losing 62-69 at South Alabama on Tuesday, the Texans host the Jaguars four days later here Friday and will be out for revenge. They blew a 4-point halftime lead in that game.

Tarleton State has played the 3rd-toughest schedule in the entire country this season, so they are battle-tested. They were competitive against Stanford, Wichita State, Michigan and Gonzaga which is all that needs to be said about the potential of this team.

South Alabama has feasted on a much weaker schedule and is overvalued with its 9-2 record. It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Jaguars after opening 6-1 ATS in all lined games. This is clearly a flat spot for them, and they won't be nearly as motivated as Tarleton State after winning the first meeting.

The Texans are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as underdogs. The Jaguars are 2-8-2 ATS in their last 12 games as road favorites. South Alabama is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite overall. Roll with Tarleton State Friday.

20* Toledo/Middle Tennessee Bowl Season Opener on OVER 49

Toledo is going to take care of this total mostly on their own and I'd lean to laying the points with them too.  But I feel better about the OVER 49.  The Rockets have the superior offense in this game that averages 34.2 points per game on the season and led the MAC in scoring.

Toledo has really been humming on offense of late.  The Rockets have scored 34 or more points in five consecutive games while averaging 43.2 points per game during this stretch.  I think they get to 34 or more in this game, which just means we need a couple touchdowns from Middle Tennessee to get the OVER.

Middle Tennessee has been much better on offense than they get credit for, especially since changing quarterbacks.  The Blue Raiders are putting up 29.8 points per game on the season.  They have scored 21 or more points in five of their last six games overall and probably only need to get to 21 at most to cash this OVER.

The Blue Raiders went 3-2 with starter Nicholas Vattiato at quarterback to close the season.  He is comlpeting 67.4% of his passes and only had one really bad game with five interceptions in a 48-21 loss to Western Kentucky, one of the best teams in C-USA.

Forecasts are calling for 81 degrees and mostly sunny during this game with only a 10% chance of precipitation and 15 MPH winds.  While the winds will be a little brisk, they won't be bad enough to affect this game much.  I think this total has dropped way too much from the opener of 54.5 and there's a ton of value on the OVER.

The OVER is 4-0 in Middle Tennessee's last four bowl games with combined scores of 58 or more points in all four.  Toledo is 6-0 OVER in its last six road games after scoring 37 points or more last game.  The Blue Raiders are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 road games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the OVER today.  Bet the OVER in the Bahamas Bowl Friday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Chiefs/Chargers OVER 51.5

The Los Angeles Chargers should get back Keenan Allen this week from COVID protocol.  Their already potent offense should be even stronger as it is nearly at full strength.  They will be up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that will be without their best player in Chris Jones due to COVID.

"The only guy you can really compare him to is probably Aaron Donald," Tyrann Mathieu said.  "You talk about inside dominance.  It's going to be a big challenge for us to replace him."

Of course, the way the Chiefs are going offensively right now they will be able to match the Chargers score for score.  They just hung 48 points on the Raiders last week after scoring 41 on them in their first meeting a couple weeks ago.  This Kansas City offense is pretty much at full strength now and ready for a big finish.

These are two of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run.  The Chargers rank 29th at 4.7 yards per carry allowed, while the Chiefs are 26th at 4.6 yards per carry.  The Chiefs are also 31st allowing 5.9 yards per play on defense.  Only the Jets have been worse than them in this category.

This has been an OVER series.  Three of the last four meetings have seen 52 or more combined points.  That includes the 30-24 upset win by the Chargers as 7-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season.  The Chiefs should have won that game as they were -4 in turnovers, had 33 first downs and 437 total yards.  They should have scored more than 24 points.  Both offenses should top 24 in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -5

This is a terrible spot for the Houston Rockets tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days in their 4th difference city.  They won't have much left in the tank for the New York Knicks tonight.

Making matters worse for the Rockets is that they are likely to be pretty short-handed.  They will be without Jalen Green (14.0 PPG), Danuel House (4.8 PPG) and Christian Wood (16.5 PPG), who is doubtful.  Both Kevin Porter Jr. (12.8 PPG) and Eric Gordon (15.1 PPG) are questionable tonight as well.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Knicks, who have gone just 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall against a brutal schedule.  Their seven losses have come to the Nets, Bulls, Nuggets, Pacers, Raptors, Bucks and Warriors.  Now they take a big step down in class here against the Rockets and should get back on track with a blowout victory.

Houston is 3-18 ATS in its last 21 games vs. a team with a wins between 40% & 49% of their games.  The Rockets are 16-36 ATS in their last 52 home games.  New York is 7-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Houston.  Take the Knicks Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -2

The Indiana Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and it's starting to show.  They have gone 3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall with their lone loss coming by 2 points to the Golden State Warriors, who are one of the best teams in the NBA.

The Milwaukee Bucks are in a world of hurt right now in the injury department.  They were already wtithout Brook Lopez and Donte DiVencenzo, but now they will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo, Wesley Matthews, DeMarcus Cousins and Semi Ojeleye tonight.  Khris Middleton is questionable as well.  Missing Giannis gives the Bucks almost no chance of winning this game against the Pacers tonight, let alone all these other injuries.

The Pacers are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days and their 5th game in 12 days.  The same cannot be said for the Bucks, who will be playing their 9th game in 15 days and in their 5th different city in 8 days.  That makes matters even worse considering their injury situation.

Indiana is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after playing three consecutive home games.  The Pacers are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bucks are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as underdogs.  Milwaukee is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the Pacers Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on SE Missouri State +13

SE Missouri State is simply catching too many points today.  They are 5-5 this season with only one loss by more than 13 points.  That includes their 99-94 win at Missouri State as 16-point dogs, a fellow Missouri Valley Conference team like Southern Illinois.

The Salukis haven't shown me enough to warrant being 13-point favorites in this matchup.  They are 5-4 this season with their five wins coming against Southern Miss, Alcorn State, Evansville, Austin Peay and Colorado.  They have just two wins by more than 4 points this season.

Southern Illinois is 20-35 ATS in its last 55 games as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points.  The road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Bet SE Missouri State Wednesday.

15* Lakers/Mavs ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles +1

The Los Angeles Lakers are starting to play up to their potential now that they have had LeBron, Westbrook and Davis healthy for a decent stretch.  They have gone 5-2 SU in their last seven games overall with each of their last four wins by double-digits.  Davis is questionable tonight but he usually plays when he is questionable.

Amazingly, the Dallas Mavericks have won two games in a row without Luka Doncic over the Oklahoma City Thunder and Charlotte Hornets.  But the Lakers are a different animal, and I don't give the Mavericks much of a chance at all to win this game without Doncic.

Plays on road favorites (LA Lakers) - after allowing 100 points or fewer in two straight games against an opponent that led by 20 points or more at halftime last game are 43-17 (71.7%) ATS since 1996.  The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.  Dallas is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games following a win.  Roll with the Lakers Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on Middle Tennessee +11.5

Middle Tennessee is 8-2 this season with its only losses both coming on the road to Stephen F. Austin by 13 and Murray State by 6 as double-digit underdogs in both games.  The Blue Raiders are a legit mid-major team this year and fully capable of hanging with Ole Miss tonight.

This is a 6-3 Ole Miss team with some very bad losses already.  They are coming off a 23-point loss to Western Kentucky as 5.5-point favorites.  They were also upset by Boise State by 10 and Marquette by 6.  Their only good win was a 67-63 victory over Memphis at home, but that Memphis team has clearly been overrated this season.

The Blue Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Middle Tennessee is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  Ole Miss is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.  The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a loss by more than 20 points.  Take Middle Tennessee Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers.  They are 17-12 SU & 21-6-2 ATS this season.  They have been especially dominant of late, going 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

The Cavaliers are now 8-2 SU in their last 10 games overall with their only losses coming by 1 to the Jazz and by 8 to the Bucks, two of the best teams in the NBA.  What's most impressive about this run is that all eight of those victories have come by 11 points or more!

Now the Cavaliers should win by double-digits over the Houston Rockets, who are starting to get respect from oddsmakers after going 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  But this isn't the same Rockets team that had all that success due to some recent injuries.  

They will be without Jalen Green (14.0 PPG), Danuel House (4.8 PPG), Kevin Porter Jr. (12.8 PPG) and Eric Gordon (15.1 PPG) tonight.  Not to mention, Christian Wood (16.5 PPG) is questionable.  Take the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +8

Santa Clara is a veteran team that didn't lose a single double-digit scorer from last season.  But they have been disappointing after a 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS start with upset wins over Nevada, Stanford and TCU.  They have since gone just 2-4 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Now I think it's a great time to 'buy low' on the Broncos as they are catching 8 points against Boise State tonight.  They have only lost one time by more than 7 points all season, so this is a nice value.

And this isn't a very good Boise State (6-4) team compared to previous versions with all they lost from last season.  The Broncos already have four losses this season including upset losses to UC-Irvine and CS-Bakersfield.  Their six wins have come against Prairie View A&M, CS-Northridge, Ole Miss, Temple, Tulsa and Utah Valley State as they were favored in five of those six games.

Santa Clara is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS loss.  Santa Clara is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games as an underdog.  Boise State is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Santa Clara Tuesday.

20* CBB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Arkansas State +24

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  They are coming off two straight road games against Providence and Tennessee in which they lost by 4 to the Friars before rebounding with a 5-point win over the Volunteers.  

Now the Red Raiders have an even bigger game on deck against Gonzaga on Saturday.  That makes this a sandwich spot and a huge lookahead spot to that Gonzaga game.  The Red Raiders won't be fully focused for this one, and that's going to make it very hard for them to cover this 24-point spread.

That's especially the case considering Arkansas State is a quality, veteran team that returned all five starters from last season.  The Red Wolves are off to a 7-2 start this season with their losses coming to Illinois and Morehead State.  But they have failed to cover three in a row coming in SU wins at big favorites, so it's a great time to 'buy low' on them.

Texas Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games after winning four or five of its last six games coming in.  Arkansas State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. good teams that shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or less.  The Red Wolves are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  Arkansas State is 5-0-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the Red Wolves.  Bet Arkansas State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois-Chicago +11.5

DePaul is grossly overrated right now after opening 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS against an extremely soft schedule with eight home games and just one road game.  That road game was impressive with an upset win at Louisville last time out, but that also makes this a letdown spot for them and a great time to 'sell high' on the Blue Demons as double-digit road favorites.

Illinois-Chicago is just 3-6 this season but most of the losses have been within this number against quality teams.  They only lost by 10 at Dayton, upset Valpo on the road, and covered as 18-point dogs at Loyola-Chicago.  Their other four losses all came by 12 points or fewer as they were dogs in three of the four and a 1-point favorite in the other.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (DePaul) - after covering five or six of their last seven games, a top-level team winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 154-95 (61.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  

This is also a sandwich spot for the Blue Demons.  They are coming off the upset win at Louisville and now they have a road game at Northwestern on deck Saturday.  They won't be giving Illinois-Chicago their full attention tonight, and that's going to make it difficult to cover this 11.5-point spread.  Roll with Illinois-Chicago Tuesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors +8.5

The books have adjusted this line too much for this back-to-back spot for the Toronto Raptors.  Well, they had two days off prior to beating the Kings 124-101 last night.  And that blowout allowed them to rest their starters in the 4th quarter.

The Raptors will still have plenty left in the tank for the Nets tonight.  It will be just their 4th game in 9 days.  Nobody played more than 32 minutes for the Raptors last night in a dominant team win with nine players scoring in double figures against the Kings.

I just don't think the Nets can be trusted to lay these big numbers without Joe Harris and Paul Millsap.  It just puts so much pressure on James Harden and Kevin Durant to do more because they don't have much talent outside of those two.  It's a big reason it has been profitable to fade the Nets this season.  They are only outscoring opponents by 3.7 points per game on the season.

The Raptors are playing their best basketball of the year right now at 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are about as healthy as they have been all season.  The Nets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Brooklyn is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as favorites.  The Nets are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last six trips to Brooklyn.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

20* Suns/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 210.5

Both the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers will be without their top two scorers tonight in Devin Booker (23.2 PPG) for the Suns and Paul George (25.0 PPG) for the Clippers.  They will both be looking to make up for it on defense as they'll be a little lost on offense without these guys.

The UNDER is 3-0 in Suns' last three games overall without Booker.  They are a great defensive team as it is though, ranking 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency.  The Clippers went UNDER the total in their first game without George last time out.  They are also an elite defensive team, ranking 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Suns last five games playing on two days' rest.  The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Los Angeles.  The UNDER is 29-15 in Suns last 44 division games.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Charlotte Hornets +3

This is a terrible spot for the Dallas Mavericks.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days after a win in Oklahoma City last night.  It will be their 4th different city during this stretch.  And they will be without their best player in Luka Doncic tonight.

It's a great spot for the Charlotte Hornets, who come in on two days' rest and get back Terry Rozier from COVID tonight.  They have managed to play well despite missing some key players, going a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with their only losses coming by 2 points at Milwaukee, by 3 to Philadelphia and by 4 to Philadelphia.  They can beat the Mavericks without Doncic given the favorable spot.

Dallas is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 home games after losing four or five of its last six games.  The Mavericks are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 home games following a road win.  Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as an underdog.  Dallas is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 home games.  The Mavericks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a win.  The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Dallas.  Roll with the Hornets Monday.

20* Rams/Cardinals ESPN No-Brainer on Los Angeles +2.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Rams.  They lost three straight and failed to cover five in a row prior to their 37-7 blowout victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week.  They got right and gained some confidence, and now they want revenge from a misleading 20-37 home loss to the Cardinals in their first meeting this season.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Cardinals, who are coming off a misleading 33-22 win against the Bears last week.  They only managed 257 total yards against the Bears and were outgained by 72 yards.  They simply benefited from being +4 in turnovers.  They improved to 7-0 on the road this season with seven wins by double-digits, which is crazy.

The Cardinals have been much more vulnerable at home this season.  They are 3-2 at home but two of those wins were misleading ones against the Vikings (by 1) and 49ers (by 7).  The Vikings gave that game away by missing kicks, including a short game-winner.  The 49ers lost 17-10 with Trey Lance at QB and squandered a ton of opportunities in Arizona territory.  The other win was against the Texans.  They also lost to the depleted Packers at home, and were crushed by the Panthers 34-10 at home.

That was a rare loss by the Rams against the Cardinals earlier this season.  They had dominated this series, and I look for Sean McVay to get back to his dominance of Kliff Kingsbury as he is the better coach and will make the proper adjustments.  The Rams are still 8-1 SU & 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Cardinals with all eight wins by 7 points or more and seven by double-digits.

Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in its last six trips to Arizona.  The Cardinals are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games in the second half of the season.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (LA Rams) - after failing to cover three of their last four games ATS against an opponent that covered three of their last four games ATS are 27-5 (84.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Rams Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -2.5

The Philadelphia 76ers are back healthy with Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey.  It's starting to show as they have gone 4-1 SU in their last five games overall, including a win over the potent Warriors last time out.  Look for them to make easy work of the short-handed Memphis Grizzlies tonight.

The Grizzlies have been winning despite their injuries, going 7-1 SU in their last eight games overall.  But there's more added to the list tonight.  They were already without JA Morant and Brandon Clarke and remain without those two tonight.  But now Steven Adams is doubtful, and that's key because they need him to defend Joel Embiid.  Jaren Jackson Jr. is questionable for the Grizzlies as well.

The 76ers are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games as road favorites.  Plays against home underdogs (Memphis) - after covering four or five of their last six games, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 42-19 (68.9%) ATS since 1996.  Take the 76ers Monday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Cleveland State +13

The Cleveland State Vikings returned all five starters from a team that made the NCAA Tournament last year.  After 10 and 11-point losses to two quality teams in BYU and Ohio to open the season, respectively, the Vikings have reeled off six straight victories with five by double-digits.

Now they are ready to give Oklahoma State a run for its money tonight.  The Cowboys are grossly overrated this season, and it has really shown in their last three games.  They only beat Oral Roberts by 1 as 9.5-point favorites, were upset by Wichita State by 9 as 6-point home favorites and were upset by Xavier by 6 as 3.5-point home favorites.  They were also upset by Oakland as 17-point home favorites earlier this season.

Oklahoma State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games following an upset loss as a home favorite.  The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. good defensive teams that allow 39% shooting or less.  The Vikings are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 games overall.  Cleveland State is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog.  Bet Cleveland State Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

The Dallas Mavericks are just 3-9 SU in their last 12 games overall.  They have no business being road favorites over the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight considering they will be without their best player in Luka Doncic (25.6 PPG, 8.5 APG, 8.0 RPG).  There may not be a more important player in the NBA to his team than Doncic.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season posting a 15-10 ATS record.  They pulled off two straight upset road wins over the Pistons and Raptors before getting crushed by a motivated Lakers team last time out.  I think that blowout loss by 21 points has them undervalued today.

Dallas is 1-8 ATS after losing two of its last three games this season.  The Mavericks are 16-35 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Thunder are 19-4 ATS in their last 23 Sunday games.  Oklahoma City is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Thunder are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as underdogs.  Bet the Thunder Sunday.

20* Bills/Bucs Non-Conference No-Brainer on OVER 53

It's going to be perfect weather in Tampa Bay Sunday.  The forecast calling for temps in the upper-70's with 4 MPH winds.  It's perfect conditions for a shootout between two of the best offenses in the NFL.   The Bucs rank 1st in scoring offense (31.4 PPG) while the Bills rank 5th (28.0 PPG) this season.

And I think the fact that both of these teams went UNDER the total last week is keeping this total lower than it should be.  Buffalo played the Patriots in terrible winds.  And clearly the OVER on the Bucs/Falcons game was the right side but came up short.

The Bucs are going to continue to put up big numbers on offense.  They have scored 30 or more points now in three straight games and in seven of their 12 games this season.  Tom Brady has thrown for at least 4 TD passes in six of his 12 games this season.

The Bills are missing their best cover corner in Tre'Davious White, who recently tore his ACL.  His loss wasn't important last week, but it will be against the Bucs this week.  The Bills will get their offense going this week.  They have scored 31 or more points in seven of their 12 games this season.

They'll be up against a banged-up Tampa Bay secondary.  Richard Sherman and Jamel Dean are both questionable, and they are missing Mike Edwards and Carlton Davis already.  The Falcons moved the ball up and down the field on them but didn't capitalize in the red zone.  The Bills will capitalize and keep pace with the Bucs.  I expect at least one team to get to 30 points in this one if not both.

Tampa Bay is 11-2 OVER in its last 13 games off a win by 10 points or more.  Buffalo is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games following a division game.  The Bills are 7-0 OVER in their last even road games against a good passing team that completes 61% or better.  The OVER is 6-0 in Bills last six games as underdogs.  The OVER is 11-4 in Bucs last 15 games as home favorites. Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Dayton +2.5

Dayton is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall with its only loss coming on the road to SMU by a final of 69-77.  This run includes three upset wins over Miami 76-60 as 5.5-point dogs, Kansas 74-73 as 16-point dogs and Belmont 63-61 as 3.5-point dogs.  

The Flyers followed up those three upsets wins with blowout victories over Alabama State 93-54 as 19.5-point favorites and Northern Illinois 79-41 as 17.5-point favorites.  So they avoided the letdowns in those games, and that is not a bad loss at SMU.  Look for them to get back in the win column at home today against Virginia Tech.

The Hokies are 6-3 this season with their six wins all coming against cupcake opponents other than Maryland, which is way down this season.  They lost to Memphis and Xavier on neutrals and were blasted at home by Wake Forest 61-80 as 8.5-point favorites.  This will be just their 2nd true road game of the season today.

Dayton is 22-6 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Flyers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. ACC opponents.  The Hokies are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games.  The Flyers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.  Take Dayton Sunday.

25* AFC North GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Browns -2

This is the perfect spot for the Cleveland Browns.  I don't remember ever seeing a team play the same team twice surrounding their bye week.  But that's the situation for the Browns.  They lost to the Ravens 16-10 on the road in Week 12 before getting their bye last week.  And now they get to host the Ravens coming out of their bye.  So they have basically been preparing for the Ravens for three straight weeks.  That's a huge advantage for them.

The Ravens have been in five straight dog fights the last five weeks with four games decided by one score.  That includes their 20-19 loss to the Steelers last week in which they went for a 2-point conversion after scoring in the final seconds but came up just short.  They will suffer a hangover from that defeat.

And while the Browns are healthier coming out of their bye, the injury situation is a terrible one for the Ravens.  The reason they went for 2 was because they were down to three cornerbacks and didn't like their chances in overtime.  Marlon Humphrey suffered a season-ending injury against the Steelers.  

They also have key injuries along their front seven on defense and along their offensive line.  Lamar Jackson has been a turnover machine in recent weeks trying to do too much.  He has 10 interceptions and has been sacked 24 games in their last six games.  This really looks like a Ravens team that is close to falling apart, and that could very well happen this week against the Browns.

The Ravens are the most overrated team in the NFL.  They are nowhere near as good as their 8-4 record.  They finally lost a close game last week, and their stats are awful.  They average 5.5 yards per play on offense and give up 6.0 yards per play, getting outgained by 0.5 yards per play on the season.  The rank 31st on defense in yards per play allowed.

The Browns gain 5.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.2 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.5 yards per play.  So they have been a full one yard per play better than Baltimore this season.  They rank 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed on defense.

We're getting the better, healthier team in the better situation off the bye as a short home favorite here of less than a field goal.  Bet the Browns Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Las Vegas Raiders +10.5

This is a great 'buy low' spot on the Las Vegas Raiders after a 15-17 home loss to the Washington Football Team last week.  This came after a 36-33 upset win at the Dallas Cowboys.  The Raiders can stay within single-digits of the Chiefs and possibly pull off the upset.

This is also a great 'sell high' spot on the Chiefs, who have reeled off five straight victories and are 3-0 ATS in their last three games.  They never should have covered in their 22-9 win over the Broncos last week.  They were outgained by 137 yards by the the Broncos in that contest and gave up 404 total yards and only 9 points, which doesn't add up.

This Kansas City offense just isn't the same as it used to be.  They were held to 267 yards by the Broncos, 370 by the Cowboys, 237 by the Packers, 368 by the Giants and 334 by the Titans in five of their last six games.  Of course, the one exception was when they went off against the Raiders, but I'm expecting the Raiders to make the proper adjustments in the rematch.  They will be out for revenge as well.

Las Vegas looks like the better team when you dive into the important stats.  The Raiders rank 4th in the NFL averaging 6.0 yards per play on offense, while the Chiefs rank 9th at 5.8 yards per play.  The Raiders rank 9th in the NFL allowing 5.3 yards per play on defense, while the Chiefs rank 30th at 6.0 yards per play allowed.  Las Vegas outgains its opponents by 0.7 yards per play, while Kansas City is getting outgained by 0.2 yards per play.

The Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as road underdogs.  Kansas City is 0-6 ATS in its last six games vs. bad defensive teams that allow 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  The Chiefs are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  Kansas City is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The Chiefs go from being 2.5-point road favorites at Las Vegas to 10.5-point home favorites in the rematch.  This is too big of an adjustment.  Roll with the Raiders Sunday.

20* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Washington Wizards +7

It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Utah Jazz.  They have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.  They just beat the 76ers by 22 and the Timberwolves by 32 in their last two games.  But that was a short-handed Timberwolves team, and that was a tired 76ers team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

Now the Jazz have to face a rested, motivated Washington Wizards team.  The Wizards will be fresh and ready to go coming in on two days' rest.  They will be motivated after losing three of their last four games.  Washington has been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season, going 15-11 SU, including 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS at home.

Washington is 11-2 ATS vs. teams that attempt 39 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Wizards are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their last two meetings with the Jazz with two outright upsets as 10.5-point underdogs in both games.  Utah is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog.  Bet the Wizards Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Toledo +9.5

The Toledo Rockets are one of the best teams in the MAC this season.  They are off to a 7-2 start this season with their only losses coming on the road to Michigan State and Oakland, two very good teams.  They have handled all other comers, and they will hang with Richmond Saturday.

The Spiders are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  They are 5-4 SU this season with their five wins coming against NC Central, Georgia State, HOfstra, Wofford and Northern Iowa.  They have lost to the four best teams they have faced in Utah State, Maryland, Mississippi State and Drake.  And Toledo ranks as one of the best teams they have faced.

Richmond is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after two straight games where opponent was called for 15 or fewer fouls.  The Spiders are 5-20 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game.  Take Toledo Saturday.

15* Arizona/Illinois FOX ANNIHILATOR on Illinois +1

The Illinois Fighting Illini were expected to be one of the best teams in the country this season.  But they were without their best player in Kofi Cockburn for the first three games, and it has taken time for them to form some chemistry.

Illinois opened 2-2 with upset losses to Cincinnati and Marquette.  That loss to Cincinnati was Cockburn's first game back.  They have since reeled off five straight victories over Kansas State, UTRGV, Notre Dame, Rutgers and Iowa.  The 86-51 win over Rutgers as 9-point favorites and the 87-83 upset win at Iowa showed their potential.

Now the Fighting Illini will hand Arizona their first loss of the season.  The Wildcats have been impressive in their 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS start, but it has come against the 242nd-ranked schedule in the country.  Illinois has played the 92nd-ranked schedule.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Wildcats, who will be playing just their 2nd true road game of the season with the other being against lowly Oregon State.  This will be their toughest test of the season by far.

Illinois is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 80 points or more last game.  The Fighting Illini are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games with a total set of 150 to 159.5.  Illinois is 6-0 ATS in its last six games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Fighting Illini are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more points per game.  These four trends combine for a perfect 27-0 system backing the Fighting Illini.  Take Illinois Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Oral Roberts +9.5

Oral Roberts made a run to the Sweet 16 last year and brought back a lot of talent from that team.  Now they have played a tough early schedule that ranks 135th in the country.  They are 5-4 with three of their losses coming as big dogs to Colorado State, Oklahoma State (1-point loss) and TCU (8-point loss).

Oral Roberts has proven they can hang with teams like Oklahoma State and TCU, and now they will stay within single-digits of an even worse Missouri State team today.  The Bears are also 5-4, but it has come against the 309th-ranked schedule int he country.  They have upset losses to SE Missouri State as 16-point favorites, E. Tennessee State as 7-point favorites and Illinois State as 6.5-point favorites.  They have no business being a 9.5-point favorite against Oral Roberts today.

Plays on road underdogs or PK (Oral Roberts) - off a road win by 10 points ormore against an opponent that is off a road win by 20 points or more are 80-39 (67.2%) ATS since 1997.  

The Golden Eagles are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.  Oral Roberts is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Golden Eagles are 20-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Roll with Oral Roberts Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +9

The Los Angeles Clippers were already without their best player in Kawhi Leonard.  Now they will be without their second-best player in Paul George, who is nursing an elbow injury.  The Clippers should not be 9-point favorites against anyone without these two, not even the Orlando Magic.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Magic, who have lost three straight road games to Houston, Golden State and Sacramento.  But now they come in fresh and ready to go today on two days' rest.  They will give the Clippers a run for their money without George.

It's not like the Clippers were playing well with George recently, either.  They are just 5-7 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Three of those five wins came by 6 points or less, so they aren't blowing anyone out either.  They certainly won't be beating the Magic by double-digits today.

The Clippers are 0-8 ATS in home games with a total set of 210 to 219.5 this season.  The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.  Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in its last four games as a home favorite.  The Clippers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days' rest.  Roll with the Magic Saturday.

20* Army/Navy CBS No-Brainer on Navy +7.5

Both teams will be motivated.  But I just think Navy will be the slightly more motivated team for a couple of different reasons.  First, this is their 'National Championship' game since they won't be going to a bowl game.  Secondly, the Midshipmen want revenge from a 15-0 loss to Army last season.

Navy played a much more difficult schedule than Army this season, which will work in its favor.  The Midshipmen played the 54th-toughest schedule.  Army played the 87th-toughest schedule and took advantage with an 8-3 campaign.

Navy was a much improved team in the second half of the season.  The Midshipmen went 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games.  They took four-team playoff participant Cincinnati to the wire in a 20-27 loss as 29-point dogs.  They actually outgained Cincinnati by 37 yards in that contest.

They went on to upset Tulsa 20-17 as 12-point road dogs and outgained them by 8 yards.  Their only non-cover was a 6-34 loss at Notre Dame as 21-point dogs, and Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the country as well so that's understandable.  They took a very good ECU team to the wire in a 35-38 loss as 3.5-point dogs.  Then they crushed Tulsa 38-14 as 13.5-point favorites in their finale.  They are playing well enough to stay within a touchdown of Army and possibly pull off the upset.

Army played a much easier schedule of opposing defenses which is why its offensive numbers are better than Navy.  But these teams are pretty even defensively despite Navy playing the much tougher schedule of opposing offenses.  Navy gives up just 359.8 yards per game on the season, 132 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry.  Army allows 324.1 yards per game, 3.7 per carry and 104 rushing yards per game.  

Navy's defense is good enough to keep them in this game, and it's expected to be low scoring with a 34-point total, so getting over a touchdown here is a nice value.  The Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Navy Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado State -2

What more does Colorado State have to do to get respect from oddsmakers?  They brought back all five starters from a team that nearly made the NCAA Tournament last year.  They are well on their way to the Big Dance after a 9-0 start this season, outscoring opponents by 17.9 points per game.

The Rams have already picked up some very quality wins over Oral Roberts by 29, Bradley by 6, Creighton by 14 and St. Mary's by 16.  Now they will take down a Mississippi State team that got off to a fast start against a weak schedule, but some holes have showed up of late.

The Bulldogs are 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost by 14 to Louisville on a neutral as a 1.5-point favorite.  They only beat Lamar by 15 as a 22.5-point home favorite.  And they were upset as 11.5-point home favorites by a bad Minnesota team.  I would argue this is their toughest test of the season to date.

The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  Colorado State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rams are 11-3 ATS vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Niko Medved is 27-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less last game in all games as a head coach.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

20* Celtics/Suns ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 216.5

The Phoenix Suns are picking up where they left off last season.  They are 20-4 and it's largely due to being one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  Indeed, the Suns rank 2nd in defensive efficiency this season at 101.7 points per 100 possessions allowed.

But they are hampered on offense right now without leading scorer Devin Booker (23.2 PPG).  And they'll be up against an improved Boston defense that ranks 10th in defensive efficiency, allowing 104.9 points per 100 possessions this season.  This total is simply too high with these two good defensive teams and Booker and Jaylen Brown (21.4 PPG) out.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Phoenix.  The UNDER is 8-3-1 in Celtics last 12 road games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Suns last five games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Cavaliers PK

The Cleveland Cavaliers are the single-most underrated team in the NBA this season.  They are 14-12 SU & 18-6-2 ATS this season.  That includes an 8-1 ATS run in their lsat nine games with wins over Chicago by 23, Miami by 31, Dallas by 18 and Washington by 15.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are 0-4 SU in their last four games overall with the four losses coming by an average of 14.0 points per game.  De'Angelo Russell is questionable to play tonight and they aren't nearly as good of a team without him.  But I believe the Cavaliers win this game whether he plays or not.

Cleveland is 9-1 ATS after covering four of five of its last six games this season.  The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit home loss.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana Pacers -1.5

The Indiana Pacers are as healthy as they have been all season and it's starting to show.  They had three straight close losses by single-digits before winning their last two games by 6 over the Wizards and by 20 over the Knicks.

The Pacers are healthy, but they are also fresh and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 7 days tonight.  The same cannot be said for the struggling Mavericks, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and in their 3rd different city.  The Mavericks are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall with losses to the Pelicans, Grizzlies and Nets.  They are also 3-8 SU in their last 11 games.

Dallas is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a win.  The Mavericks are 17-36 ATS in their last 53 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Roll with the Pacers Friday.

20* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa State +3.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are just getting no love from the books or bettors alike.  We'll take advantage tonight and back them as home underdogs.  TJ Otzelberger is doing one of the best coaching jobs in the country, and it's all of his recruits that are making the biggest impact for the Cyclones this season.

Iowa State is 8-0 this season with upset wins over Xavier 82-70 as 9-point underdogs on a neutral, Memphis 78-59 as 11.5-point underdogs on a neutral and Creighton 64-58 as 5.5-point road dogs.  Penn State transfer Isaiah Brockington (16.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Minnesota transfer Gabe Kalscheur (12.1 PPG), stud freshman PG Tyrese Hunter (11.6 PPG, 5.4 APG) and UNLV transfer Caleb Grill (7.6 PPG) are the top four scorers for the Cyclones thanks to Otzelberger's recruiting.

But the biggest difference has been Otzelberger's coaching to get this team to play defense, which is something Steve Prohm didn't do a good job of before him.  The Cyclones are holding opponents to 60.1 points per game this season, and those opponents typically average 70.1 points per game, so they are holding opponents to 10.0 points per game less than their season averages.

Iowa is overvalued after a 7-0 start against a very soft schedule.  They opened with six straight home wins as 19.5-point favorites or more before beating Virginia by 1 as 2-point road underdogs.  That's a down Virginia team.  Then they finally played some big boys in Purdue and Illinois and lost despite making some big rallies late after falling behind by double-digits to both.  Those final scores were closer than the games actually were.

The underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Fran McCaffery is 6-15 ATS in road games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games as the coach of Iowa.  Take Iowa State Thursday.

20* Steelers/Vikings Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Minnesota -3

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Minnesota Vikings and 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The Vikings are coming off two straight road losses to the 49ers and Lions, and that upset loss to the Lions looks real bad.  Meanwhile, the Steelers just upset the Ravens at home.

But now the Steelers hit the road on a short week off a physical game against the Ravens.  Their last two road performances were miserable.  They lost 10-41 at Cincinnati and 37-41 to the Chargers in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.  They were down 27-10 going into the 4th quarter before miraculously scoring 27 points in the final period.  They were outgained by 233 yards by the Chargers and should have lost by more.

Minnesota is back home where they were last seen upsetting the Green Bay Packers.  They have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.  Their season is on the line here, so we'll get a big effort from them.  And they get back three key players from injury in LB Eric Kendricks, LB Anthony Barr and CB Patrick Peterson.  Being without those three is a big reason why the Lions had success on offense against them last week.

The stats show the Vikings are by far the superior team.  They rank 7th in the NFL with 5.8 yards per play on offense while the Steelers rank just 27th at 5.0 yards per play.  Pittsburgh is slightly better on defense at 5.7 yards per play allowed while Minnesota gives up 5.8 yards per play.  But the Steelers have played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses compared to the Vikings.

Minnesota is much better than its 5-7 record as all seven losses have come by one score.  Pittsburgh isn't as good as its 6-5-1 record as four of its five losses have come by double-digits, while all six wins have come by one score.  So we are getting artificial line value here on the Vikings because most look at these as even teams and give the Vikings 3 points for home field.  But that's just not the case.  The Vikings are the far superior team and it will show tonight.

Mike Zimmer is 16-5 ATS following two or more consecutive losses as the coach of Minnesota.  Zimmer is 13-3 ATS after a loss by 3 points or less as the coach of the Vikings.  The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  The Vikings are 42-19 ATS in their last 61 games following a loss.

Plays against any team (Pittsburgh) - off an upset win as a home underdog, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Vikings Thursday.

20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Lakers -3

The Los Angeles Lakers are getting healthy now with Lebron, Davis and Westbrook all on the floor together.  They flashed their potential with a 117-102 win over Boston last time out.  And now they are fresh and ready for another big effort tonight playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.

The same cannot be said for the Grizzlies, who will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 96-104 home loss to the Dallas Mavericks last night.  They are already short-handed as it is playing without JA Morant, plus Kyle Anderson, Brandon Clark and Sam Merrill are all questionable tonight.  They can't compete with the Lakers without Morant, especially not in this tough rest spot.  

Plays against home underdogs (Memphis) - after covering three of their last four ATS in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 41-16 (71.9%) ATS since 1996.  It's time to 'buy low' on Los Angeles after a shaky start to the season due to injuries.  Bet the Lakers Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on New Orleans Pelicans +2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are as healthy as they have been all season.  It's no surprise they are playing some of their best basketball of the season of late as a result.  They have gone 4-3 SU & 4-3 ATS in their last seven games overall with upset wins over the Clippers, Jazz, Wizards and Mavericks.

Now the Pelicans are rested and ready to go coming in on two days' rest.  They take on a Denver Nuggets team that is banged up right now playing without Michael Porter Jr, Jamal Murray and Austin Rivers.  Nikola Jokic is banged up as well and has missed a few games lately, though he is supposed to play tonight.

These injuries are taking their toll as the Nuggets are 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Denver is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games.  The Nuggets are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.  New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.  The Pelicans are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Take the Pelicans Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 13-12 SU & 18-5-2 ATS this season.  They are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall and coming off two competitive losses to the Jazz by 1 and Bucks by 8.  Look for them to bounce back at home tonight against the short-handed Bulls.

Chicago is an underrated team too, but they are banged up and without several key players due to COVID.  They are without DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso, Coby White and Javonte Green tonight.  I don't give them much of a chance of even keeping this game competitive against the Cavaliers without these guys.

The Cavaliers are 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  Cleveland is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS win.  The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cavaliers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Pistons OVER 209

The OVER is 3-1 in Wizards last four games overall with combined scores of 217 or more points in all three OVERS.  The OVER is 2-0 in Pistons last two games with combined scores of 217 points or more in both games.  And I think there's ample value to pull the trigger on the OVER 209 tonight in this showdown.

Washington and Detroit have combined for 211 or more points in six of their last eight meetings, so this number is short based on head-to-head history as well.  Both teams are getting healthier of late and should start thriving on offense more than they have thus far this season.

The OVER is 5-1 in Wizards last six games overall.  The OVER is 18-7 in Pistons last 25 games following four or more consecutive losses.  Washington is 32-17 OVER in is last 49 road games following a road game.  Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Wisconsin -4.5

The Wisconsin Badgers are clearly one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-1 start this season with their only loss coming to Providence.  They have five quality wins already over Texas A&M, Houston, St. Mary's, Georgia Tech and Marquette.  They have played the 56th-toughest schedule in the country.

Indiana is also 7-1, but it has come against the 273rd-ranked schedule in the country.  They were double-digit favorites in six of their seven wins.  In their lone road game, they lost outright to a bad Syracuse team.  And now this will be their toughest test of the season by far at Wisconsin.

Wisconsin simply owns Indiana at home, going 18-1 SU in the last 19 meetings in Madison.  Indiana is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven road games.  The Hoosiers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  The Badgers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  Bet Wisconsin Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Connecticut +2.5

Connecticut is one of the best teams in the country.  The Huskies are 8-1 this season with their only loss coming to Michigan State in overtime after they blew a big late lead.  They also have a win over Auburn on a neutral the day prior that went to multiple overtimes, so it explains how they ran out of gas against Michigan State.

West Virginia is 7-1 this season against a very easy schedule.  They have late bad teams like Oakland (won by 7) and Eastern Kentucky (won by 3) hang around at home.  They lost by 11 to Marquette on a neutral with their best win coming against Clemson by 7 on a neutral.  This will be their toughest test of the season for a rebuilding Mountaineers squad.

West Virginia is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games after playing two or more consecutive home games.  The Huskies are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.  The Mountaineers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games.  Take Connecticut Wednesday.

20* Celtics/Lakers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 219

These teams played in a shootout in their first meeting on November 19th in a 130-108 victory by the Celtics in Boston for 238 combined points.  The OVER is now 7-1 in the last eight meetings with combined scores of 226 or more points in six of the last seven.  It should be more of the same tonight, especially with the way these two teams are trending.

The OVER is 4-1 in Lakers last five games overall and they just got LeBron James back healthy.  They lost to the Clippers 115-119 for 234 combined points last time out.  The OVER is 2-0 in Celtics last two games overall as they combined with the Jazz for 267 points and the Blazers for 262 points without overtime in either!

The Lakers play at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA this season.  Russell Westbrook has been an OVER machine everywhere he has gone because he pushes the pace at the PG position.  Dennis Schroder loves to do the same for the Celtics and has been a great addition to their team this season averaging 17.9 points per game.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on North Dakota State +5.5

North Dakota State is one of the better mid-major teams in the country.  They returned all five starters this year and are off to a 5-3 start with their only losses coming on the road to UNLV (by 2), Arizona and Creighton.  They have taken care of business against everyone else.

Montana State lost to a team the caliber of North Dakota State in South Dakota State by a final of 74-91.  The Bobcats are 5-4 this season with their only wins coming against Rocky Mountain, Portland, Incarnate Word, SE Missouri State and Sacramento State with two of those wins coming by 3 points or less.

The Bobcats should not be this big of favorites against the Bison, let alone favorites at all.  It's also a tougher rest spot for the Bobcats as they will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days, while the Bison come in on four days' rest after blasting Northland 114-51 last time out on December 2nd.

North Dakota State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games following an ATS loss.  Montana State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game.  The Bobcats are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Montana State is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take North Dakota State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Kansas -18.5

The Kansas Jayhawks have faced a brutal schedule thus far and are 6-1 with their only loss coming to Dayton by a single point after blowing a double-digit lead.  They beat St. John's by 20 and Michigan State by 13 with five of their seven games on a neutral thus far.  Now they are back home where they have beaten Tarleton State by 26 and Stony Brook by 29.

Kansas has played the 72nd-toughest schedule in the country.  Now they take a on a 4-3 UTEP team that has played the 192nd schedule.  Their toughest games were two losses to New Mexico State.  The their five games have come against Western New Mexico, Northern New Mexico, Pacific, UC-Riverside (lost by 12) and Florida A&M.  It's safe to say this is a massive step up in class for the Miners.

UTEP is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Miners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games following three or more consecutive home games.  This is an elite Kansas offense averaging 85.4 points per game against teams that only allow 66 points per game, scoring nearly 20 points per game more than their opponents typically allow.  They will run it up here.  Roll with Kansas Tuesday.