15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +9

The betting public thinks that Iowa is going to have a letdown following its win over #1 Michigan State.  That would be the case if the Spartans were at full strength, but the Hawks were favored because Sparty didn't have their best player in Denzel Valentine.  The Hawks will show up in their first true Big Ten road game.

Iowa has lost three games this season, but all three came by 6 points or less on the road to quality opponents.  The Hawks lost to Dayton by 5, Notre Dame by 6, and Iowa State by 1.  They should have never lost to Iowa State as they blew a 20-point second half lead.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent meetings, which is why there is a lot of value here with the Hawkeyes catching 9 points.  Each of the last seven meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, including six by 7 points or less.  The Hawkeyes haven't lost by more than 7 to the Boilermakers in any of those seven meetings.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PURDUE) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers are 98-50 ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Iowa Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +11

The Syracuse Orange are showing great value today as double-digit road underdogs to the Miami Hurricanes.  This is simply too many points today folks.

The Miami Hurricanes are having a great season as they're off to an 11-1 start.  They have taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule, though they do have a few good wins over Utah, Butler and Florida.  But they also lost to Northeastern 77-78 at home, so they are vulnerable.

The Orange check in off an 11-point loss at Pittsburgh, so they don't want to start ACC play 0-2.  I believe that 11-point loss is the reason they are getting 11 points here from Miami, but it's just too much as Pitt is a better team than Miami.

The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams.  The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams who win between 60% and 80% of their games.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in January home games over the last three seasons.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +6.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions head into the bowl season undervalued because they have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  Meanwhile, the Georgia Bulldogs come into the bowl season overvalued after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Those finishes to the regular season have forced oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be because they know that the betting public wants nothing to do with Penn State right now.

The 16-55 loss to Michigan State certainly leaves an eye sore.  But a closer look at that game shows that it wasn't nearly as big of a blowout as the final score showed.  The Nittany Lions gave away that game by committing four turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  They were only outgained by the Spartans 418-436 for the game, or by 18 total yards.  The difference was clearly the turnovers.  But the Nittany Lions had only committed 13 turnovers in 11 games prior to that contest, so it was an aberration, and don't expect it to become a pattern now.

That finish to the season will certainly have the Nittany Lions extra motivated coming into this bowl game.  They want to right the ship and end the season on a winning note, and you can bet that head coach James Franklin will have his players ready to go on January 2nd as a result.  Franklin owns a 3-0 career record in bowl games, so he knows how to get his players prepared the right way.  While you can't question the motivation of the Nittany Lions, you can certainly question the motivation of the Bulldogs.

Indeed, Georgia will have an interim head coach for this game after Mark Richt was fired.  Richt has left the program to go coach at his alma mater in Miami.  The Bulldogs hired former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.  Not only will Georgia be without Richt, it will also be without defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, who took over Smart's previous role as the defensive coordinator at Alabama.  Plus, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer won't coach in the bowl game either, leaving Georgia with a patchwork staff leading up to the game.

Receivers coach Bryan McClendon will take over as the interim coach, and I just cannot see this going well for the Bulldogs.  Few bowl teams undergo this many changes to their staff.  Losing your head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator is almost impossible to overcome.  You can see why this is my favorite play of the bowl season, ranked as my 25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR!

I was not impressed with the way the Bulldogs closed out the season even though they won four straight.  Their wins came against Kentucky, Auburn, Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech.  They only beat Auburn by 7, needed overtime to beat Georgia Southern at home, and only beat Georgia Tech by 6.  While they may find a way to win this game, too, asking them to do so by a touchdown or more to beat us is asking too much.

The Bulldogs just don't have the firepower on offense to put away the Nittany Lions.  They have been held to an average of just 14.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last six games overall.  They were held to 3 by Florida, 9 by Missouri, 13 by Georgia Tech and 17 by Georgia Southern in four of those games.  It's not going to get any easier for this Georgia offense against a Penn State defense that is one of the best units in the country.

The Nittany Lions only allow 21.7 points, 325 yards per game and 4.8 per play against teams that average 28.3 points, 386 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  I know the Penn State offense has struggled like Georgia, but the extra bowl practice will help the offensive line work on its problems.  Plus, QB Christian Hackenburg wants one big performance here to improve his draft stock after it plummeted throughout the regular season.

Penn State also falls into a proven bowl system that tells us to bet on teams entering the bowl season on an extended losing streak.  Since 1984, teams entering bowls on at least a three-game losing streak are 27-15 ATS, including 16-8 ATS if their opponent is coming off a straight up win.  The Nittany Lions are the only team that qualifies this year.  These teams on 3-game skids have been consistently undervalued.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Oklahoma State Sugar Bowl BAILOUT on Ole Miss -7

The Oklahoma State Cowboys might be the biggest frauds in all of college football.  Yes, they had a chance to win the Big 12 in the season finale, but their true colors showed against the best teams they played this season.  Let's also not forget that this team struggled to beat suspect competition with an 11-point win over Central Michigan, a 3-point win over Texas, a 2-point win over Kansas State and a 4-point win over Iowa State.

But the most telling story about the Cowboys is their performance against the top three teams in the Big 12 in TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma.  They gave up 29 points and 663 yards to TCU, 45 points and 700 yards to Baylor, and 58 points and 524 yards to Oklahoma.  So, against those three teams, they allowed averages of 44.0 points and 629.0 yards per game.

Conversely, Ole Miss is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It was the only team to beat Alabama this season, and it even did so in Tuscaloosa.  The Rebels had some mental lapses in a few losses this season to Memphis, Florida and Arkansas, but this is easily the second-best team in the SEC.  It took a fluke fourth-and-25 lateral play in overtime by Arkansas to beat the Rebels, and had they won that game, the Rebels would be your 2015 SEC champs.

Oklahoma State's suspect defense now has to go up against what I believe to be the best offense in the SEC.  The Rebels average 40.2 points, 515 yards per game and 7.0 per play against teams that give up 29.6 points, 402 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  They put up 43 points on Alabama, 52 on Arkansas, 38 on LSU and 38 on Mississippi State.  I would say that is getting it done against those four defenses.

Plus, it's not like the Rebels are slouches defensively.  They have a well above-average defense that gives up 22.8 points, 387 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that average 28.1 points, 406 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  They will be up against a good-but-not-great Oklahoma State offense that average 6.5 yards per play against teams that allow 5.9 per play.

Oklahoma State only beat only one ranked team this season (TCU), and it was outgained by 207 yards by the Horned Frogs.  Ole Miss beat four ranked teams at the time they played them in Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State and Texas A&M.  The return of future first-round pick Laremy Tunsil at left tackle late in the year gave the Rebels' offensive line a boost, and I look for this offense to shred Oklahoma State's suspect defense while putting up a big number in this one.

Ole Miss has done very well when oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 points over the last three seasons, winning these games by an average of 24.3 points per game.  The Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games with a total set of 63 or higher as well.  Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games.  The Rebels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Ole Miss is 24-8-1 ATS in its last 33 non-conference games.  Roll with Ole Miss Friday.

20* Iowa/Stanford Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Iowa +7

Iowa didn't get much respect all season, and that certainly hasn't changed here as the oddsmakers have pegged them as 7-point underdogs to the Stanford Cardinal.  They were 27 seconds away from a 13-0 season and a trip to the four-team playoff, but they still aren't getting any credit.  Look for the Hawkeyes to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this game against Stanford as a result.

The Hawkeyes have never won the Rose Bowl, so they certainly won't be lacking any motivation anyways.  Fans are so excited that they are forking over some large cash to make the trip to Pasadena, and there will be more black and gold there than Cardinal fans as a result.  The Hawkeyes are expected to get at least 60,000 fans to Pasadena for their first Rose Bowl in 25 years.

Stanford lost 6-16 at Northwestern, while Iowa beat Northwestern 40-10 on the road.  That right there gives these teams a common opponent that lets you know that the Hawkeyes should not only be able to hang with the Cardinal, but to pull off the upset, too.  The Big Ten in general just never gets much respect from anyone outside of Ohio State.  But they have been a great bet in bowl games in recent years because of this false public perception of them.

This is a great matchup for the Hawkeyes.  They won't be overmatched athletically like they would be if, say, USC was the opponent in the Rose Bowl.  Both the Hawkeyes and Cardinal are similar teams who run the ball and stop the run, it's just that I believe the Hawkeyes do it better.

Iowa rushed for 192 yards per game while Stanford rushed for 225 per game.  So, the key is going to be which teams stops the run better.  The Hawkeyes only allow 115 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, while the Cardinal give up 146 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  Overall, the Hawkeys give up 18.5 points, 334 yards per game and 4.8 per play, while the Cardinal give up 23.1 points, 375 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

The Hawkeyes are a tough team to blow out because they play such sound football.  They run the ball, stop the run, and take care of the football, and CJ Beathard is a better quarterback than he gets credit for.  You know when you bet the Hawkeyes that they aren't going to beat themselves.  They have only committed 14 turnovers in 13 games this season.  Conversely, they have forced 26 turnovers this year for a +12 differential.  CJ Bethard has thrown 15 touchdown passes against four interceptions in 13 games this year, while also rushing for 270 yards and six scores.

Iowa got some good news prior to the Rose Bowl with a healthy return of running back Jordan Canzeri, who was knocked out of the 13-16 loss to Michigan State early with an ankle injury.  While the Hawkeyes have two other capable backs in LeShun Daniels (609 yards, 8 TD) and Akrum Wadley (463 yards, 6.3 per carry, 7 TD), Canzeri (976 yards, 5.5/carry, 12 TD) is their most complete back.  Whoever is running the football should find plenty of success against a Stanford defense that allows 4.6 yards per carry.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS in road games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games vs. teams who score 37 or more points per game.  Iowa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. teams who average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Kirk Ferentz is 33-11 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game as the head coach at Iowa.  Take Iowa Friday.

20* Tennessee/Northwestern Outback Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -8

We saw last year in the bowl game how Tennessee crushed Iowa 45-28 in a game that wasn't even that close.  It was yet another example of a Big Ten team being outmatched athletically by an SEC team.  The Volunteers used their team speed and did whatever they wanted to offensively against the Hawkeyes.  I look for this one to play out exactly the same way as Northwestern doesn't have the athletes to match up.

I was very high on Tennessee coming into the season because this was Butch Jones' most talented team yet, and a team that returned 18 starters.  The Volunteers didn't disappoint, because believe it or not, they nearly went 12-0 this year.  All four of their losses came by 7 points or less.  They just had some bad fortune in close games against some of the best teams in the country.

The Vols lost in double-overtime 24-31 to Oklahoma after blowing a 17-3 lead in the 4th quarter.  They lost 20-24 to Arkansas after blowing a 14-0 lead.  They lost 27-28 to Florida after blowing a 27-14 lead in the final five minutes.  And they lost 14-19 at Alabama after holding a 14-13 lead with under three minutes to play.  As you can see, they played two playoff teams in Oklahoma & Alabama right down to the wire, a solid Arkansas team, and SEC East champ Florida. They easily could have won all four of those games.

But instead of being down about their poor fortune in those close games, the Volunteers got pissed off and played their best football of the season down the stretch.  They went 5-0 in their last five games overall with a 31-point win over Kentucky, a 3-point win over South Carolina, a 24-point win over North Texas, an 11-point win at Missouri and a 25-point win over Vanderbilt.

Northwestern might be the most overrated team in the country with its No. 13 ranking.  Oddsmakers agree in listing the 23rd-ranked Vols as 8-point favorites here.  The Wildcats have been winning ugly all season.  That works against suspect Big Ten competition, but it does not work against good teams.  That was evident in the 38-0 loss at Michigan and the 40-10 home loss to Iowa.  But the Wildcats are in for their stiffest challenge yet here because of the disadvantage they'll be at athletically.

Both teams have solid defenses as the Vols give up 21.2 points per game while the Wildcats surrender 16.4 points per game.  The Wildcats would have had a hard time only giving up 21.2 points per game against the schedule that Tennessee played.  So even though the Wildcats have the better numbers defensively, I don't believe they are the better defensive team.

The one thing that can't be argued is that Tennessee is head and shoulders better than Northwestern on offense.  The Vols put up 34.3 points per game this season.  The Wildcats managed to win 10 games despite only averaging 20.7 points, 333 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this year.  Once the Wildcats get behind in this one, they aren't going to have the firepower to catch up, just as Iowa didn't against Tennessee in last year's bowl game.

Tennessee just beat Vanderbilt 53-28 in the season finale.  That is a Vanderbilt team that plays a similar style to Northwestern, relying on great defense to make up for suspect offense.  Well, the Vols racked up 53 points and 527 total yards on that good Vanderbilt defense, and the Commodores couldn't do anything to catch up.  The Wildcats average 13 completions, 50.2% passing and 139 passing yards per game this season.  That's not going to get it done.

I'd much rather put my money on Joshua Dobbs and this Tennessee offense.  Dobbs has thrown for 2,125 yards and 15 touchdowns against five interceptions, while also rushing for 623 yards and nine scores.  Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara give the Vols a great 1-2 punch in the backfield.  Hurd has rushed for 1,155 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Kamara has chipped in 645 yards and six scores while averaging 6.7 per carry.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

15* Michigan State/Alabama Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Alabama -9.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are on a mission heading into the four-team playoff.  Nick Saban is on record of saying that this team is a lot more focused than last year's squad that lost to eventual national champion, Ohio State.  I believe the business-like approach they are taking will have them ready to make easy work of the overmatched Michigan State Spartans in the Cotton Bowl.

This is big brother vs. little brother.  Mark Dantonio worked under Nick Saban before getting the job at Michigan State.  Dantonio calls Saban his mentor.  And while he has had success running a similar program to Saban at Alabama, he just doesn't do it quite as well.  That was evident a few years back when Saban's Alabama team crushed Michigan State 49-7 in the 2011 Capital One Bowl.  Another beat down can be expected here.

Alabama is back to having the best defense in the country.  It gives up just 14.4 points, 258 yards per game and 4.1 per play against teams that average 28.7 points, 398 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  The going is going to be very tough for Connor Cook and a Michigan State offense that is only averaging 397 yards per game and 5.6 per play against teams that give up 389 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

This is just an average Michigan State offense, and Cook doesn't have enough playmakers outside to have any kind of success against this Alabama defense.  The Spartans don't run the football well as they average just 4.0 yards per carry against teams that give up 4.3 per carry.  That won't change against an Alabama defense that allows 74 rushing yards per game and 2.4 per carry against teams that average 173 yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  The Crimson Tide have the best front seven in the country.

Alabama's offense has been better than it gets credit for, too.  It is putting up 34.1 points, 423 yards per game and 5.8 per play against teams that only give up 25.2 points, 366 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry just keeps getting better as the games get bigger.  He has rushed for 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry.  He had 189 against Florida, 271 against Auburn, 204 against Mississippi State and 210 against LSU in his last four SEC games.

Michigan State was so fortunate to even make the four-team playoff.  It needed a miracle punt block TD on the final play of the game to beat Michigan, needed to control the ball for almost 40 minutes to beat Ohio State by 3, and needed a last-second TD to beat Iowa.  It also let poor teams like Rutgers (31-24) and Purdue (24-21) hang around.  Now the Spartans face by far their stiffest test of the season in the Cotton Bowl, and I believe they will be exposed.

Alabama's loss to Ole Miss early in the season may have been the best team that could happen to this team.  It got them refocused and back to playing the best football in the country.  The Crimson Tide won each of their final 10 games of the season with nine of those wins coming by double-digits.  They aren't about to let up now.

Alabama beat Wisconsin 35-17 on a neutral field in the season opener and outgained the Badgers 502-268, or by 234 total yards.  That win improved the Crimson Tide to 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records.  The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Take Alabama Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -3

This is an awful spot for the Los Angeles Clippers.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days and are running on fumes right now.  They won't have anything left to give tonight against the Pelicans.

That's especially the case since they're already short-handed without arguably their best player in Blake Griffin.  They won 122-117 in Charlotte last night in a fast-paced game.  On tired legs tonight, I look for Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and company to really struggle tonight on the offensive end, and to have little effort left to give on defensive.

The Pelicans have been playing better since head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their last of effort.  They have won three of their last five games since that occurred with one of their losses coming on the road at Miami in overtime.

The Pelicans have won four of their last five home games, including an upset win over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the league.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Clippers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 visits to New Orleans.  Roll with the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Clemson/Oklahoma Orange Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3.5

I believe Oklahoma is the most complete team in the playoff.  It has been dominant on both sides of the football, and it comes in playing better than anyone in the country.  The Sooners have gone 7-0 in their last seven games overall with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  What makes that most impressive is that the Sooners played their toughest Big 12 opponents down the stretch.

They went on the road and beat Baylor 44-34, topped TCU 30-29 at home in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed, and then went on the road and beat Oklahoma State 58-23 in its final three games of the season.  The Sooners have outgained seven straight opponents, including five of them by 146 or more total yards.

The offense is putting up 45.7 points per game, 543 yards per game and 7.0 per play against opposing defenses that allow 30.8 points, 440 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  Baker Mayfield deserved to be in the Heisman Trophy discussion as this guy just makes all the plays.  He is completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,389 yards with 35 touchdowns against five interceptions.  He has also rushed for 420 yards and seven scores as he's an underrated runner.

While the offensive improvement behind Mayfield has been a big reason for Oklahoma's success, it's the defense that doesn't get enough credit.  The Sooners had the best defense in the Big 12 this season.  They allowed just 20.7 points per game, 352 yards per game and 4.7 per play against opposing offenses that averaged 33.5 points, 455 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  This is one of the top defenses in the country.

Clemson played in the much weaker ACC this season.  It put up 38.5 points per game this year, which is less than Oklahoma.  It is right on par with Oklahoma in terms of scoring defense at 20.2 points per game, but not when you consider that opposing offenses faced only averaged 28.7 points per game.  The Tigers played a much easier slate of opposing offenses, and I believe their defense has been overrated all season because of it.

I was not impressed with the Tigers down the stretch.  They went 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They failed to cover the 12.5-point spread in a 10-point win over FSU, only beat Syracuse by 10 as a 30-point favorite, only beat Wake Forest by 20 as a 29-point favorite, and only beat South Carolina by 5 as a 20.5-point favorite.  They did cover the 6.5-point spread in an 8-point win over UNC in the ACC Championship Game, but if the refs had not called a phantom offsides penalty on the Tar Heels on an onside kick that they recovered, that result might have been different.

This Clemson defense is not as good as it gets credit for.  It faced plenty of mediocre offensive teams and gave up a lot of points this season.  Over their final six games, the Tigers allowed 41 points to NC State, 27 to Syracuse, 32 to South Carolina and 37 to UNC.  That's not a championship defense like the one Oklahoma has.  Plus, the Sooners played the toughest non-conference schedule of any of the bowl teams with games against fellow bowl teams in Akron, Tennessee & Tulsa.

Oklahoma wants revenge from the blowout bowl loss to Clemson last year, which is added motivation.  Oklahoma is 7-0 ATS in road games off a win by 21 or points points over the last two seasons.  Clemson is 8-20 ATS off five or more consecutive wins since 1992.  Plays on any team (OKLAHOMA) - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after a win by 35 or more points are 39-11 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Oklahoma Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +7.5

The Providence Friars are one of the best-kept secrets in college basketball.  They have gotten off to a 12-1 start this season behind three absolute studs in Ben Bentil (18.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Kris Dunn (16.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 7.3 apg) and Rodney Bullock (13.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg).

The only loss the Friars have suffered this year came against #1 Michigan State by 13 on a neutral court.  But they have beaten both Evansville (by 10) and Arizona (by 4) on a neutral court, as well as Rhode Island (by 2) and UMass (by 24) in its two true road games this season.  I really like what I've seen from the Friars and believe that they will give Butler a run for its money today.

Butler is also a solid team at 11-1 this season, but it should not be favored by 7.5 points here.  It comes in overvalued due to three straight ATS wins.  Tennessee only lost by 8 at Butler, which was the toughest opponent that the Bulldogs have faced at home this year.  They struggled to beat Temple (by 5) and lost to Miami (by 10) on a neutral court this year.

I really believe that home-court advantage means nothing in this series when you look at recent results.  The road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Providence won 66-62 at Butler as 6-point dogs last season and 87-81 as 1.5-point dogs two years ago.  The Friars have actually won three of the last four meetings with their only loss coming by 4 points.

The Friars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.  Providence is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Friars are 10-2 ATS off two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Take Providence Thursday.

15* Xavier/Villanova Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on Xavier +4.5

The Xavier Musketeers just don't get the respect they deserve.  This team is arguably the best in the entire country, yet they don't get a lot of national attention.  They are out to prove that their run to the Elite 8 last year was no fluke like many believed it was.  So far, so good as far as proving it.

The Musketeers have gone 12-0 SU & 9-3 ATS in their 12 games this season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS run over their last eight games.  They've gone on the road and beaten Michigan (by 16) and Wake Forest (by 8).  They've also crushed Alabama (by 19), USC (by 10) and Dayton (by 29) on a neutral court.  And they've beaten Cincinnati (by 10) at home.  Those results show that they are the real deal.

Villanova is solid again this year at 10-2.  But it has lost to the two best teams it played, and it was thoroughly outplayed in both contests.  The Wildcats lost to Oklahoma (by 23) on a neutral court and to Virginia (by 11) on the road.  They really don't have a quality win yet as their best victories came over Georgia Tech and Stanford on a neutral court.

Xavier wants revenge on Villanova after losing all three meetings with the Wildcats last year, and five straight in this series overall.  I believe they will be playing with extra motivation because of it.  The Musketeers will also be the fresher team.  They last played on December 22 against Wake Forest.  Meanwhile, the Wildcats last played on December 28 against Pennsylvania, having just two days to prepare for the Musketeers.  That's a huge scheduling advantage for Xavier here.

The Musketeers are 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Xavier is 11-1 ATS vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last three seasons.  Again, the Musketeers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They should not be underdogs here.  Bet Xavier Thursday.

15* Wisconsin/USC Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on USC -3

One of my favorite tools for handicapping bowl games is strength of schedule.  Well, Holiday Bowl between USC and Wisconsin is one of the biggest SOS mismatches of the bowl season.  The Trojans played the 3rd-toughest schedule in the country, while the Badgers played the 70th-toughest.

USC has played Stanford (twice), Notre Dame, Utah, Oregon and UCLA among others.  It's amazing that the Trojans managed to win the tough Pac-12 South division with the schedule they had to endure.  They were competitive in almost every game they played, too, and they are certainly a more talented team than the Badgers.

Wisconsin went 9-3 this year, but it clearly wasn't as good as its record.  It lost to the three best teams it played in Alabama, Iowa (at home) and Northwestern (at home).  Its nine wins came against Miami Ohio, Troy, Hawaii, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland and Minnesota.  All nine of those teams finished with losing records.

USC is far and away the superior offensive team in this one.  It averages 34.9 points, 449.6 yards per game and 6.3 per play against teams that give up 28.5 points, 416 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  Wisconsin only averages 27.1 points, 377 yards per game and 5.3 per play against teams that give up 27.3 points, 383 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Senior QB Cody Kessler wants to end his career a winner.  He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,315 yards with 28 touchdowns and only six interceptions this season.  The Trojans also boast a two-headed monster at running back in Ronald Jones (940 yards, 6.5/carry, 8 TD) and Justin Davis (875 yards, 5.6/carry, 5 TD).

This was not a typical season for Wisconsin offensively.  The Badgers rushed for 320 yards per game and 6.9 per carry last year, but fell all the way down to 148 per game and 3.8 per carry this season.  They will struggle to move the ball against a USC defense that is better than advertised.  The Trojans give up 25.9 points, 401 yards per game and 5.7 per play against teams that average 34.5 points, 452 yards per game and 6.2 per play.

Clay Helton got his long-term contract from the Trojans and there is now some stability with the program, finally.  He led them to a bowl win last year.  Wisconsin's Paul Chryst is just 1-2 in bowl games as a head coach.  USC is one of my favorite teams to back off a loss.  The Trojans are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss, coming back to win by 18.3 points per game.  Take USC Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +10

The Philadelphia 76ers have been much more competitive here of late, and I look for that to continue as they give the Sacramento Kings a run for their money tonight and stay within single-digits.

The 76ers have covered their last two against the spread.  They won outright at Phoenix 111-104 as 11.5-point underdogs, and then came back with a 91-95 loss at Utah as 8-point dogs.  The 76ers are finally getting healthy as Jahlil Okafor is expected to play tonight.  They don't have anyone else listed on the injury report aside from Joel Embid, who is out for the season with a foot injury.

The Kings shouldn't be this heavily favored against anyone.  They have lost three of their last four with their only win coming by two points.  They could be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight as he faced a possible suspension.  That would only be an added bonus.  They are already without Willie Cauley-Stein and could be without Kosta Koufos as well.

The 76ers played the Kings very tough last year, winning 114-107 at home as 4.5-point dogs, and only losing 106-107 on the road as 8.5-point dogs. Philadelphia is now 13-3 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Sacramento, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven road meetings.

Sacramento is 12-23 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The 76ers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Kings are 11-29-2 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2

I'll gladly fade the Utah Jazz, who are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now.  They are without two starters in Alec Burks and Rudy Gobert.  They could also be without a 3rd starter tonight in Derrick Favors, who missed their lackluster 95-91 home win over the 76ers last time out.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are hungry for a win tonight after losing four straight coming in.  But those four losses came to the Celtics, Pacers and Spurs (twice), and they even hung with the Spurs in a 95-101 road loss as 13.5-point dogs last time out.  Look for the Timberwolves to get back in the win column tonight now that they take a step down in competition.

The Jazz are 5-9 on the road this season and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers given the state of their team health-wise.  The Timberwolves are basically at full strength heading into this one, which will be a huge advantage.  They should dominate in the paint with Gobert and possibly Favors out for the Jazz.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Bradley +20.5

The Bradley Braves are way undervalued here as 20.5-point road underdogs to the Northern Iowa Panthers in their Missouri Valley opener.  I'll gladly grab all the points I can get with the Braves here as there's little chance they lose by 21-plus points.

Bradley is just 2-11 this season while playing a brutal schedule that has featured games against Arizona, Virginia, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, UT-Arlington, Boise State and TCU.  Yet, the Braves have only lost by more than 20 points four times this season.

The Panthers are probably still feeling the after-effects of a 3-game trip to Hawaii over Christmas and cannot be fully prepared for this game.  They played three games against Hawaii, Washington State and BYU and lost two of the three with their only win coming by 4 points.  UNI only has two wins by more than 20 points this season.  Roll with Bradley Wednesday.

20* Louisville/Texas A&M Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Texas A&M +4.5

The oddsmakers opened Texas A&M as 3-point favorites for this Music City Bowl over Louisville.  Now, with the news that quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray have transferred, they've moved this line a whopping 7.5 points to Texas A&M +4.5.  I would still like the Aggies at -3, and I certainly love them catching 4.5 points here.

Now the Aggies will be playing with a chip on their shoulder in the role of the underdog.  They will be going with junior college transfer Jake Hubenak as their starter, and I like what I'm hearing about this kid.  I actually think this may be addition by subtraction not only for this game, but for the long run for the Aggies.

Allen and Murray were two quarterbacks who were promised playing time by the staff, which is why they were both so frustrated when they couldn't get that playing time consistently.  It's no surprise that they transferred.  They are two players who just want everything given to them instead of earning it, and they certainly didn't earn the playing time they were given.

Hubenak grew up wanting to be an Aggie and then earned his way up.  He went 19-1 as a starter in high school.  He walked on at Oklahoma State and played last season at Blinn College, where he threw for 4,052 yards and 47 touchdowns.  Breaking in new quarterbacks is nothing new for Kevin Sumlin.  Jameil Showers and Matt Davis left the program in 2013, while Kenny Hill and Matt Joeckel left in 2014.  This is a system where you can almost plug in any quarterback.

"I've said all along that I think he could get the job done for us," center Mike Matthews said of Hubenak. "He's been put in that role now and I have no doubt that he will do great for us. It helps that he's an easy guy to rally around. He's a hard-working guy and the team likes him a lot. It's kind of hard not to get along with him and it's easy to follow his lead."

The good news for Hubenak is he has boatloads of talent around him, so he won't be asked to do too much.  Sumlin has recruited very well along the offensive line and at the skill positions.  In fact, this is one of the most talented receiver corps in the country.  All Hubenak needs to do is get the ball into his playmakers' hands in space, and they will do the work for him.

Plus, the Aggies have the best defense that they've had in the Sumlin era.  The addition of former LSU coordinator John Chavis has made a huge difference.  The Aggies are only giving up 21.6 points, 367.2 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 27.8 points, 403 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  This is actually one of the better defenses in the SEC now.

They thrive against the pass, allowing just 161 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt on the season.  They are 20th in the nation in sacks per game (2.75), which doesn't bode well for a Louisville offense that ranks 126th in the country in sacks allowed  per game (3.67).

Louisville doesn't wow you offensively as it averages a mediocre 28.8 points, 406 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  Its defense is above average, but it is still giving up 24.3 points per game against teams that average 26.3.  The Aggies played a much tougher schedule this season and will be more battle-tested than the Cardinals.  They will also have a lot more talent on the field as they have 10 NFL prospects to Louisville's 5.  Bet Texas A&M Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Iowa Big Ten Opener on Iowa -3

The oddsmakers know something here by having the Iowa Hawkeyes favored over the No. 1 team in the country in the Michigan State Spartans.  They expect the Hawkeyes to win, and are trying to get some money on the Spartans by making the Hawks favored.  That shouldn't be a problem considering the betting public loves ranked teams.

Indeed, roughly 67% of the bets as of this writing are coming in on Michigan State, yet the line has moved from Iowa -2 to Iowa -3.  So this reverse line movement shows us that the big money is on the Hawkeyes, and I totally agree that it should be given the situation.

Michigan State is playing without its best player in Denzel Valentine.  The Spartans secured their best start (13-0) in franchise history last time out, but it wasn't easy without him.  They needed overtime to escape with a 99-93 win over Oakland, and a 7-for-9 from 3-point range shooting effort out of Bryn Forbes.  They aren't going to get that again from him.

Iowa has really impressed me this season.  It blew out both Marquette (89-61) and Wichita State (84-61) on the road, while also beating a very good Florida State (78-75) team at home.  Its three losses have all come by 6 points or less on the road to Dayton (77-82), Notre Dame (62-68) and Iowa State (82-83).  It should have beaten Iowa State as it blew a 20-point lead in that game on the road at Hilton Coliseum, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  The Cyclones are currently the #11 ranked team in the land.

The Hawkeyes will be extremely motivated to end a 9-game losing streak to the Spartans.  They blew an 11-point halftime lead at home to Michigan State last year, and these players have not forgotten.  Look for them to be playing with some extra motivation here as a result, and for the home crowd to be a big influence as the No. 1 team in the country visits Iowa City tonight.

Tom Izzo is just 10-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less as the coach of Michigan State.  Fran McCaffery is 36-22 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents.  Roll with Iowa Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Knicks UNDER 200

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks.  There are several reasons to love the UNDER in this one, not the least of which is the fact that this is the second-highest total set in the last 14 meetings between these teams.  They are used to playing low-scoring games when they get together.

Indeed, 9 of the last 10 meetings between the Knicks and Pistons have seen 193 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Only once did they reach 200 points, and that was a 202-point effort in the final meeting last year when neither team had anything to play for in mid-April.  They have combined for an average of just 182.3 points per game at the end of regulation in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.

Both teams prefer to play at a slow tempo as the Knicks rank 23rd in pace at 96.7 possessions per game while the Pistons are 18th (98.0).  Both teams also struggle offensively as the Knicks rank 24th in offensive efficiency while the Pistons are 23rd.  The Pistons are 10th in defensive efficiency while the Knicks are 16th.

The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  The UNDER is 16-4 in Pistons last 20 road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last four games following an ATS loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Baylor/UNC Russell Athletic Bowl ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -3

The Baylor Bears were picked by many to win the Big 12 this year with aspirations of playing in the four-team playoff after finishing No. 5 in the playoff rankings at the end of the regular season last year.  But injuries really hurt this team, their season ended with back-to-back losses to TCU and Texas.

That loss to Texas was real bad because it was at home and the Bears were 21-point favorites.  Now the Bears want no part of this Russell Athletic Bowl after expectations were to win the Big 12 and play in a much bigger bowl game coming into the season.  Plus, the Bears don't have the manpower now.

The Bears are down to third-string quarterback Chris Johnson, who did not play well at all in the final two games.  They are without star receiver Corey Coleman, who won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's top receiver.  His 1,363 receiving yards and FBS-best 20 touchdown receptions will be missed.  Also out is star running back Shock Linwood, who rushed for 1,329 yards and 6.8 per attempt.

North Carolina went 11-2 this season and won the ACC Coastal.  The Tar Heels nearly upset No. 1 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, and if not for a fluke offsides penalty on an onside kick that they recovered, they may have beaten the Tigers.  Now they'll be going for their 12th win, and senior QB Marquise Williams certainly wants to go out with a victory.

Williams led an offense that puts up 40.9 points and 486.9 yards per game.  He threw for 2,829 yards and 21 touchdowns, while also rushing for 867 yards and 11 scores.  There's no question that the Tar Heels are going to be the much better offensive team in this one.  Plus, Elijah Hood rushed for 1,345 yards and 17 touchdowns this season, so this is a balanced attack.

While the UNC offense is explosive, the improvement on defense was the biggest reason for the turnaround for the Tar Heels.  They only give up 22.6 points per game against teams that average 25.8 points per game.  They also only allow 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 per play.  This is now an above-average defense, and a lot of the credit has to go to first-year coordinator Gene Chizik.

Baylor is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games off three consecutive games where it committed three or more turnovers.  The Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with winning records.  The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Baylor coach Art Briles is 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in bowl games.  Bet North Carolina Tuesday.

20* Bengals/Broncos ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver -3

The Denver Broncos will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week when they host the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football. They have simply given away their last two games, but that’s going to work in our favor here because of the determination they’ll be playing with. They still have everything in front of them as a first-round bye will be theirs if they win out. So don’t expect them to just fold.

The Broncos lost to the Raiders 12-15 at home despite outgaining them by 184 yards and limiting them to just 126 yards of total offense. They did not score a single point in the second half of that game. That is about as fluky of a loss as there is. Then last week they lost 27-34 on the road to the Steelers. That’s not a bad loss with how well the Steelers are playing right now, but is stings considering they had a 27-10 lead before getting shut out in the second half again.

But now the Broncos get to take a step down in competition and return to the friendly confines of Sports Authority Field at Mile High, where they have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. Now they get to take on a Bengals team that lost at home 20-33 to the Steelers two weeks ago. But the Bengals are getting too much respect for their 24-14 win at San Francisco last week. They were actually outgained by 76 yards by the 49ers as this game wasn’t as big of a blowout as the final score seemed.

The Bengals are dealing with a ton of injuries right now on offense. Andy Dalton is out for the season, leading touchdown catcher Tyler Eifert is questionable with a concussion, and A.J. Green has a back injury. AJ McCarron didn’t even play that well last week, but he’s getting a lot of praise. The Bengals managed just 242 total yards against an awful San Francisco defense with 68 rushing and 174 passing.

Now McCarron and company will meet their match against the league’s best defense. The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 279.9 yards per game, which is 22.3 yards per game better than second place. They rank 1st against the pass (200.0 yards/game) and 1st against the run (79.9 yards/game). If that’s not domination, then I don’t know what is. Look for this defense to be the reason the Broncos get out of here with a much-needed victory by 4-plus points to cover this 3-point spread.

Everyone is making a big deal about whether or not Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler will start this week. I think that controversy has been the reason for this line dropping all the way down to 3. But it’s not going to matter who is under center because this offense has proven it can do enough to win with either QB under center. That’s because they have the best defense in the NFL. The Broncos still rank 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 62.6 yards per game. Only the Cardinals, Seahawks and Patriots have been better.

Plays on favorites (DENVER) – off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 49-22 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on favorites (DENVER) – off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 33-12 (73.3%) ATS over the last five years. Denver is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in two straight games. It is winning in this spot by 21.9 points per game. The Broncos are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the Toronto Raptors tonight.  We'll gladly take advantage and back the Bulls as they pretty much just have to win this game to cover the spread.

The Bulls are a solid 11-5 at home this season.  But they come in undervalued due to having lost four of their last five games, including two by exactly 3 points.  But they did beat the Thunder 105-96 on the road on Christmas Day to show their potential, and I believe they'll live up to their potential tonight as they'll be motivated to turn this recent poor run around.

What you have to like about this game is that Chicago has owned Toronto.  The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raptors.  The last two have resulted in double-digit wins in favor of the Bulls with a 13-point road win and a 16-point home win.

Toronto is 5-17 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont +3.5

This one is pretty simple folks.  The Belmont Bruins are going to be out for revenge after losing 57-61 at Valparaiso on December 3 earlier this month.  After that 4-point road loss, I like them to win this rematch outright at home this time around because they'll be the more motivated team.

Belmont has played a brutal schedule this year, which is why it is only 7-6 and better than its record would indicate.  The Bruins' six losses have come against ASU (by 9), Evansville (by 5), BYU, Valpo (by 4), Middle Tennessee and Cleveland State (by 2).  All six of those losses came on the road.

The Bruins are 3-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game.  Valpo is 4-2 on the road with narrow wins over Rhode Island (by 3), Oregon State (by 6) and Indiana State (by 6).  It has also lost at Oregon and at Ball State in two of its other three road games, and its only road blowout came at Chicago State.

Plays on a home team (BELMONT) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, with four starters returning from last season are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS since 1997.  The Bruins will have their revenge tonight.  Roll with Belmont Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have started to turn their season around now that they are finally healthy.  They have won three of their last four games overall with home wins over the Blazers (by 26) and Rockets, as well as a road win at Denver.

The only loss by the Pelicans during this 4-game stretch came at Miami by a final of 88-94 in overtime.  So, they have either won or forced overtime in each of their last four games.  I think we're getting some good value with them at +4.5 here against Eastern Conference foe, Orlando.

The Magic come into this game overvalued due to sinning five of their last seven games overall.  But their two losses came against the two best teams they played in Atlanta and Miami, both at home.  Their five wins came against the Nets, Hornets, Blazers, Knicks and Rockets.

Orlando is 9-20 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 road games after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points.  The Pelicans are 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to Orlando.  The underdog is 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers -2

The Atlanta Hawks come into this game way overvalued because they have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But those six wins came against the 76ers, Celtics, Magic, Blazers, Pistons and Knicks.  Now they take a step up in competition tonight.

At the same time, the Pacers come in undervalued due to going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost on the road to Memphis and San Antonio, while also falling at home to Sacramento by 2.  They bounced back with a 102-88 win at Minnesota on Saturday, though.

The Pacers are 10-4 at home this season.  They are outscoring teams by 6.6 points per game at home this year.  The Hawks are 8-6 on the road, but they're getting outscored by 0.7 points per game away from home.

Indiana is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after having lost 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  The Pacers are 10-1 ATS against teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Indiana is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Roll with the Pacers Monday.

15* CMU/Minnesota Quick Lane Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Central Michigan +6

The Central Michigan Chippewas will be happy to be bowling in their home start of Michigan.  They will have a nice home-field advantage here as they get to play this Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit inside of Ford Field, the home of the NFL's Lions.

Central Michigan was better than its 7-5 record would indicate.  Its five losses came to Oklahoma State (by 11), Syracuse (by 3), Michigan State (by 20), Western Michigan (by 2) and Toledo (by 5).  It actually went 4-1 ATS in those five games, which were against five of the best teams that it played.

The Chippewas actually outgained Michigan State by 16 yards despite losing by 20.  They also outgained Western Michigan by 5 yards and Syracuse by 194.  They were only outgained by 78 yards by Toledo and by 77 yards against Oklahoma State, so they really showed that they could play with all five of those teams.

Now the Chippewas are up against a 5-7 Minnesota team that doesn't even deserve to be playing in a bowl game.  But since it's a team from the Power 5, the Chippewas will certainly be up for this game.

"I think it's a big help from a confidence standpoint," first-year coach John Bonamego told the school's official website. "I think our guys feel like we can play with anybody and they've demonstrated that this year. This is another opportunity to go toe-to-toe with a Power 5 opponent and show that we belong in Division I."

Four of Minnesota's five wins this year came by single-digits, including three 3-point wins against Colorado State (23-20), Kent State (10-7) and Ohio (10-7).  If those three teams can play with the Golden Gophers, there's no question that the Chippewas can as well.

The Chippewas are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Central Michigan is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Chippewas are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Central Michigan is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 vs. Big Ten foes.  The Golden Gophers are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.  Minnesota is 0-7 in its last seven postseason games with its last win coming in 2004.  Take Central Michigan Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Knicks/Celtics UNDER 201.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics.  I look for a defensive battle between these two teams as neither gets to 100 points in this one, paving the way for an easy UNDER winner.

The biggest reason for the Celtics' turnaround this season has been defense.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Knicks are improved in this area as well as they rank 16th in defensive efficiency.

The Knicks are improved on offense this season, but only marginally as they still rank a woeful 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Celtics have only been slightly better, ranking 21st at 101.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Knicks rank 23rd in pace at 96.7 possessions per game, so this one should be played at a slow pace.

I also think that it will be played at a slow pace for the simple fact that both teams played on Saturday, so they are both going to be tired playing this second of a back-to-back.  I think that hurts the offense more than the defense, which has proven to be the case over time.  Neither team is going to be looking to fast break with regularity.

New York is 30-15 UNDER versus teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Boston is 21-9 UNDER after covering three of its last four games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Knicks last 15 games following a straight up loss.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Knicks last 10 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last five Sunday games.  The UNDER is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings, including 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Boston.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Packers/Cardinals NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +4.5

There are a couple different ways you can look at this one. People who like the Cardinals will say that the Packers aren’t going to show up. It is true that the Packers can lose this game and still win the NFC North with a win at home against the Minnesota Vikings next week. But I believe that is not what the Packers are really thinking heading into this one. They could also clinch the division with a win this week and a Minnesota loss to to the Giants.

I think the Packers actually believe they still have a shot at a first-round bye, which is certainly the case. They would need to win their final two games of the season, while also having the Cardinals lose their final two games. And it’s really not a long shot at all considering the Cardinals play the Seahawks at home next week. That’s a Seattle team that is still fighting to make the playoffs and one that won’t just let the Cardinals win next week considering they are bitter rivals. So, it’s realistic to think that the Packers will finish 2-0, while the Cardinals will go 0-2.

The Cardinals are certainly overvalued right now due to their 8-game winning streak. I do believe that this has been the best team in the NFC up to this point, but I also realize that they are laying too many points here and that there is value with the Packers at +4.5, who I consider the second-best team in the NFC. The Cardinals are also dealing with some injuries right now as Carson Palmer has an injured finger on his throwing hand, and star safety Tyrann Mathieu is out for the season after suffering a knee injury last week.

Aaron Rodgers is going to have a much easier day against a Cardinals secondary that doesn’t include Mathieu, who leads the team in pass break-ups and had five interceptions this year. The Cardinals could also be without fellow safety Rashad Johnson, who is battling an ankle injury and missed last game.  They clearly aren't the best team in the NFC this week with the injuries they are dealing with.

Rodgers and the offense are hitting their stride right now. They have put up an average of 28.3 points per game in their last three games. Mike McCarthy just took over play-calling duties two weeks ago, and the Packers responded with 435 total yards against a good Cowboys defense. They scored 30 last week against the Raiders and left a lot of points on the field as Mason Crosby kicked three short field goals of 21, 24 and 33 yards. I love that McCarthy is calling plays again because he and Rodgers have had great chemistry together in their history.

But the defense has been the biggest reason for the Packers' success here of late.  They have given up 23 or fewer points in six straight games coming in.  They are allowing just 16.3 points per game in their last six.  I look for this defense to continue to play well against the Cardinals this week, and to keep them in this game for four quarters.  Keep in mind that at +4.5, we are getting two key numbers in 3 and 4, so if this goes down to the wire like I think it will, then were are in great shape.

The Packers have won seven of their last nine meetings with the Cardinals. Arizona is 0-6 ATS against teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game on the season over the last two seasons. It is losing to these teams by an average of 11.5 points per game. The Packers have only committed 11 turnovers in 14 games, which is mighty impressive. You know that Rodgers is going to take care of the football and give his team a chance to win. The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. teams with winning records.  Take the Packers Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +7.5

The Carolina Panthers could not be more overvalued than they are right now. They are 14-0 on the season and now find themselves in the role of being huge road favorites over a division rival. That’s because the oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to keep pounding the unbeaten Panthers, so they are forced to set the line higher than it should be to try and get even action on both sides.

It’s really the perfect storm here because the betting public wants nothing to do with the Falcons. They have lost six of their last seven games overall while also going a pitiful 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The betting public has been killed backing this team, and those who have gone against them have made a fortune. They are going to look to keep fading the Falcons this week.

One obvious indication that this line is inflated is comparing it to the line of the first game these teams played. The Panthers were 8.5-point home favorites over the Falcons two weeks ago. Adjusting for home-field advantage, they should only be about 2.5-point road favorites in the rematch. Instead, this line has been set at 7.5, so the clear value is with the Falcons here.

The Panthers pretty much have home-field advantage already locked up in the NFC. They can afford to lose this game and win next week to secure the No. 1 seed. They have already been careful in resting players with nagging injuries in recent weeks, so don’t be surprised to see that continue.  Jonathan Stewart sat out last week and is expected to sit again here.

Carolina has also been overvalued in each of its last two road games. It needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Saints 41-38 as 5.5-point favorites, failing to cover that spread three weeks ago. Then last week the Panthers needed a last-second field goal to beat the Giants 38-35 on the road as 4.5-point favorites, also failing to cover that spread. Now they’re being asked to lay 7.5 points against a Falcons team that I believe to be better than both the Saints and Giants.

Statistically and record-wise, the Falcons are better than both the Saints and Giants. They rank 11th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 21.9 yards per game. Of the top 10 teams in yardage differential, only the Bucs are not going to make the playoffs. The other nine teams would all be in the playoffs if the season ended today, so the Falcons are in some elite company here with this yardage differential stat, which I find to be very important.

The Falcons are still alive for the playoffs. Yes, they would need a lot of help, but the fact of the matter is that they are still alive. I like the fight I saw from them last week in their win over the Jaguars. They are going to treat this game against the Panthers as their Super Bowl. Beating a division rival who is 14-0 and ending their perfect season is plenty of motivation to show up at home Sunday. I also like the fact that nine of the Falcons’ 14 games this season have been decided by 6 points or less. They have only lost by more than 4 points three times all season.

Atlanta is 12-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win this this spot by an average of 7.2 points per game. Plays on any team (ATLANTA) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 26-3 (89.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Bucs -3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the best-kept secrets in the NFL this season.  When you look at the numbers this team is putting up, it's clear to me that they are much better than their 6-8 record would indicate.  Look for them to show it this week at home against a Chicago Bears team that appears to have quit.

The Buccaneers rank 7th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 34.7 yards per game.  Of the top nine teams in the yardage differential category, they are the only one that wouldn't be in the playoffs if the season ended today.  They are in some elite company with the Cardinals, Seahawks, Patriots, Broncos, Panthers, Jets, Steelers and Bengals as the top nine teams in this all-important yardage differential stat.

The Bucs average 6.0 yards per play on offense and give up 5.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.6 yards per play.  The Bears average 5.5 yards per play on offense and give up 5.8 per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play.  As long as the Bucs take care of the football, they should have no problem making easy work of the Bears.

After all, the Bears have lost three straight coming into this one to be eliminated from the playoffs.  They lost a pair of heartbreakers at home to the 49ers (in OT) and the Redskins (by 3) before going on the road and getting demolished by the Vikings (by 21) last week.  I don't believe they will pick themselves back up off the mat in time to face the Bucs this week.

I also like this spot for the Bucs.  They fought hard to nearly erase a 28-6 deficit to the Rams last Thursday.  They got back to within 23-31 before missing an onside kick that would have given them the ball with a chance to tie.  They outgianed the Rams by 190 yards in that game.  That showed the character of this team.  Now, the Bucs have three extra days to rest and get ready for the Bears after playing last Thursday.  Look for Jameis Winston and company to put forth one of their best efforts of the season this week.

Doug Martin is second in the NFL in rushing with 1,305 yards this season.  That number would be bigger if the Bucs weren't playing from behind the majority of the time.  Look for them to ride him early and to play from ahead the whole way in this game.  The Bears are awful against the run as they give up 126 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry against teams that only average 112 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

Chicago is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 road games over the final four weeks of the regular season.  Chicago is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 road games with a total set of 45.5 or higher.  The Bears are 15-39 ATS in their last 54 games vs. excellent offensive teams that average 6.0 or more yards per play.  The Buccaneers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.  Tampa Bay is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 30 or more points in its previous game.  Roll with the Bucs Sunday.

15* Redskins/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on Washington +3

The Washington Redskins are the most complete team in the NFC East this season and deserving of winning it. That’s especially the case with the way they have played here down the stretch. They have won three of their last four games overall with their only loss coming at home to the Dallas Cowboys by a field goal.

Their offense has scored a combined 29.5 points per game in back-to-back wins over Chicago and Buffalo. That’s mighty impressive against those two defenses. Their defense has been playing its best football of the season, too. The Redskins are only giving up 19.8 points per game over their last four.  I just trust this team with the way they are playing right now a lot more than the Eagles, and getting the 3 points is an added bonus.

The Eagles have been thoroughly outplayed each of the last five weeks. They have managed to go 2-3 despite it, but they had two fluke wins. They beat the Patriots 35-28 despite getting outgained by 179 yards.  They only won that game due to three non-offensive touchdowns. They also beat the Bills 23-20 despite getting outgained by 64 yards.

Philadelphia has been outgained in five straight games by an average of 130.6 yards per game. Its defense has been shredded for an average of 35.6 points and 456.6 yards per game in its last five. There’s no way you can trust this team with the way its defense is playing. Kirk Cousins is coming off a 22 of 28, 319-yard, 4-touchdown performance against a good Bills defense last week, and I trust him to have another big game here against the Eagles.

Each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by eight points or less. In fact, each of the last three meetings have been decided by exactly a field goal. I’d certainly rather have the team catching a field goal in this series because of the close nature of it as well. The Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in Philadelphia.

The Eagles are still getting too much respect here even after how poorly they’ve been playing, and with their 23-point loss to the Cardinals last week. They haven’t responded well in this situation, either. The Eagles are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. The Eagles are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Bet the Redskins Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

Both the Rockets and Pelicans played on Christmas Day.  The difference is that the Pelicans have had more time to recover since they played the 12:00 EST game, while the Rockets played the second-to-last game last night.  The Pelicans will be the more rested team as a result.

I also believe the Pelicans will be the more motivated team.  They let one get away from them yesterday, losing in overtime to the Heat.  The Rockets are in a massive letdown spot here after beating the Spurs at home.  The Pelicans will want this one more because they are the ones coming off a loss.

The Pelicans haave played the Rockets tough in recent meetings in winning three of the last six.  All three of their losses came by 7 points or less with two of them coming on the road.  The Pelicans lost 101-108 at Houston in their first meeting this season in early December, so they'll be out for revenge as well.

The Pelicans are 6-6 at home this year while the Rockets are just 6-8 on the road.  Houston is 4-12 ATS off a home game this season.  New Orleans is 25-14 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

15* CFB Bowl Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +14

The fact that this is Frank Beamer's last game as head coach at Virginia Tech has the Hokies way overvalued against Tulsa in the Independence Bowl.  While the Hokies will likely give Beamer a win in his final game, they have no business being two-touchdown favorites with the way that they have played this year.

The Hokies needed a 23-20 win at Virginia just to get bowl eligible in their season finale.  They were thoroughly outplayed by the Cavaliers in that game, but found a way to win.  They were outgained 304-433 by the Cavaliers, or by 129 total yards.

There's no question that Tulsa's defense isn't very good.  They give up 38.6 points per game, but that has come against teams that average 30.3 points per game, so they've played some very good offenses this year.  Fortunately for them, the Hokies won't be one of them.

Virginia Tech only averages 367 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play against teams that give up 374 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  It is 114th in the country in yards per carry (3.6).  The Hokies play a conservative brand of football on offense, which makes it tough for them to blow teams out.  That's going to make it very difficult for them to cover this 14-point spread.

VA Tech does have a good defense, but it hasn't been as good as in year's past.  The Hokies give up 24.2 points, 354 yards per game and 5.4 per play against teams that average 37.6 points, 385 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  So, this is just a slightly above-average defense, not one that is among the best in the country.

The Hokies will have their hands full against a Toledo offense that has thrived under first-year head coach Philip Montgomery, the former Baylor offensive coordinator.  The Golden Hurricane are putting up 35.9 points, 503 yards per game and 6.0 per play against teams that give up 29.9 points, 414 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

This is an offense that put up some solid numbers against bowl teams this year.  Tulsa put up 40 points and 600 total yards against New Mexico, 38 points and 603 yards against Oklahoma, 24 points and 456 yards against Houston, 42 points and 534 yards against Memphis, and 38 points and 588 yards against Cincinnati.

Quarterback Dane Evans has thrived in Montgomery's system, completing 63 percent of his passes for 3,958 yards with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions while averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per attempt.  The Golden Hurricane have two 700-plus yard rushers in Zack Langer and D'Angelo Brewers, who have combined for 21 touchdowns, so they aren't one-dimensional at all.

The Golden Hurricane have only been beaten by more than 14 points twice all season, which came against Memphis (by 24) and Navy (by 23).  They even stayed within 14 of Oklahoma on the road, so they clearly have proven they can play with anyone.

The Golden Hurricane are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Tulsa is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Virginia Tech is 7-15-2 ATS in its last 24 non-conference games.  The Hokies are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Roll with Tulsa in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

20* CFB Bowl Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington -8.5

Look out for the Washington Huskies to win the Pac-12 next year.  But first, they have some unfinished business after losing to Oklahoma State in their bowl game last year.  They want to finish their season the right way this time.  That shouldn't be a problem against an overmatched Southern Miss team in the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

Washington certainly earned its way into this bowl game by needing wins in its final two games to get here.  And boy did it deliver.  The Huskies beat Oregon State 52-7 on the road before topping Washington State 45-10 at home.  It's safe to say they are playing their best football of the season coming in.

Indeed, they have outgained five straight opponents.  They did lose to Arizona State by 10 and Utah by 11, but they outgained ASU by 150 yards and Utah by 35 yards and arguably should have won both games.  Their three wins have all been via blowout as they've beaten Arizona by 46, Oregon State by 45 and Washington State by 35 over their last five games.

Jake Browning is going to be a great quarterback for this program for years.  The freshman is completing 63% of his passes this season while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He leads a Washington offense that is putting up 37 points per game and 464 total yards per game over its last five contests.

Browning should have his way with a Southern Miss defense that allowed 45 points and 522 total yards to Western Kentucky in the Conference USA Championship.  This Southern Miss defense also has a ton of injury concerns right now after several starters left the WKU game with various injuries.

On the other side of the ball, the Huskies have the best defense in the Pac-12.  They are giving up 17.7 points and 350 yards per game against teams that average 31 points and 431 yards per game.  So, they are holding their opponents to 13.3 points per game less than their season averages.

This is a massive strength of schedule mismatch.  Washington played the 21st-toughest schedule in the country, while Southern Miss played the 135th-toughest.  The Golden Eagles lost to the four best teams they played in Mississippi State (by 18), Nebraska (by 8), Marshall (by 21) and Western Kentucky (by 17).  I believe Washington is better than all four of those teams, and I fully expect the Huskies to roll by double-digits Saturday.

Washington is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons.  It is winning by an average of 22.6 points per game in this spot.  Plays against any team (SOUTHERN MISS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points are 60-23 (72.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Washington in the Heart of Dallas Bowl Saturday.

15* UConn/Marshall Early ANNIHILATOR on Connecticut +5

The Huskies were one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They went just 2-10 in Bob Diaco's first season last year, but they managed to go 6-6 this season to get bowl eligible.  Diaco certainly has this team on the rise, and they'll be hungry to be playing in their first bowl game since 2010.

Marshall went 9-3 this year, but I wasn't impressed with this team.  The Thundering Herd play in a weak conference in Conference USA.  Their only win against a conference opponent that finished with a winning record was Southern Miss.  But they were fortunate to win that game.  They were outgained by 162 yards, had 14 first downs and 277 yards of total offense.  Southern Miss turned the ball over five times to give the game away.

When you look at what Marshall did out of conference, it was even less impressive.  The Thundering Herd lost by double-digits to a poor Ohio team.  They also needed overtime to beat Kent State, a team that went 3-9.  They were fortunate to beat Purdue at home as the Boilermakers led that game most of the way.  That's a Purdue team that went 2-10.

I think the betting public is a little stuck on this Marshall team because it went 13-1 last year.  But this isn't the same Marshall team as last year.  This is a Marshall offense that is terrible, and one that averages just 5.4 yards per play against teams that give up 5.7 yards per play, so this is a well-below average offense.

UConn boasts an elite defense that is giving up just 19.7 points per game, holding opponents to 7.1 points per game below their season averages.  They only give up 352 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play on the season.  This is expected to be a low-scoring game with both teams featuring decent defenses, so I like getting the +5 points here.

UConn also has a stud running back in Arkeel Newsome, who comes in ranked 18th in the country in all-purpose yards this year.  The Huskies are 5-1 when they rush for at least rush for at least 145 yards this season.  They should have a great chance to do just that against a Marshall defense that gives up 172 rushing yards per game against teams that only average 147 yards per game on the ground.

This is a big strength of schedule mismatch in favor of the Huskies as well.  UConn played the 69th-toughest schedule this season, while Marshall played the 138th-toughest.  As you can see, Marshall's schedule this year could not have been any easier.  The Thundering Herd lost to the best team they played in Western Kentucky by 21 points.

UConn actually beat the 14th-ranked Houston Cougars 20-17 to become bowl eligible on November 21.  That was the only loss the Cougars suffered all season.  That was the second-to-last game for the Huskies, who went on to have a letdown in their season finale at Temple, a team that needed that win to get into the AAC Championship and wanted it more.  The Huskies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. C-USA opponents.  Take UConn in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

25* NBA Pre-New Year's GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +7

The Cleveland Cavaliers want serious revenge on the Golden State Warriors.  They led the NBA Finals 2-1 last year, only to lose three straight and to fall short of a championship.  The only difference this time around is that the Cavaliers are healthy, which is a huge difference.

Back in 2011, Lebron James and the Miami Heat played the Dallas Mavericks on Christmas.  Coming off a Finals loss to Dirk Nowitzki & Co. Miami routed Dallas, leading by 32 points after three quarters.  I fully expect the Cavaliers to want this game more and to likely come away with an outright victory.

The Cavs come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won six straight games with three coming by double-digits, including both of their road wins over Boston (89-77) and Orlando (111-76) during this stretch.  Kyrie Irving returned to the lineup two games ago and should be up to game speed now in time for face the Warriors.

Remember, the Cavs didn't have Irving or Kevin Love against the Warriors in the NBA Finals, which are two of their three best players.  While James and company are downplaying the significance of this game to the media coming in, there's no question that deep down inside they want to kill the Warriors.  That will show on the court Friday.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Bulls/Thunder Christmas Day No-Brainer on UNDER 205.5

This Christmas Day matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder features two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  The Bulls rank 3rd in defensive efficiency, giving up 97.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder rank 6th, giving up 98.8 points per 100 possessions.

The Bulls will be playing with extra determination in this game because they are coming off three straight losses and really need a win.  The last time they lost three straight this season, they came back with an 83-80 home win over the Clippers in a low-scoring, defensive battle that saw 163 combined points.

The Bulls have struggled to find easy baskets this season under Fred Hoiberg as they rank just 27th in offensive efficiency at 98.4 points per 100 possessions.  Things won't get any easier for them on that end against a Thunder team that has allowed 99 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook get all the hype, but it's OKC's effort on the defensive end that makes them so good.

The UNDER in Christmas Day games is 27-13-1 (67.5%) since 2005.  While I do like some other UNDERS, this is my favorite of the bunch.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Bulls last 21 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest.   The UNDER is 10-1 in Bulls last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Thunder's last seven home games.  The UNDER is 9-0 in OKC's last nine when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in OKC's last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  These last four trends combine for a 34-2 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Pelicans/Heat XMas Day Early ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +6

I've backed the Pelicans with success in each of their last two games and I'll continue riding them on Christmas Day as 6-point underdogs to the Miami Heat.  Head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their lack of effort three games ago in a loss to the Suns, and they've responded very well.

Indeed, the Pelicans went on the road in their first game after the loss to the Suns and beat the Nuggets 130-125 as 1-point underdogs.  In their second game since Gentry called out his players, the Pelicans rolled to a 115-89 home win over the Blazers as 7.5-point favorites.  Now I fully expect them to win this game outright against the Heat.

The Pelicans have had the Heat's number in recent meetings.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with home wins by 10 and 2 points, and a blowout 14-point road win.  I believe Anthony Davis' domination of Hassan Whiteside inside will be the difference in this game.  Davis is a tough matchup for Whiteside because he can hit 3-pointers, so Whiteside is forced away from the rim, making it much easier for other players to get uncontested layups.

The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams with winning records.  The Heat are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.  The Pelicans are 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall.  Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

20* Chargers/Raiders NFL Thursday No-Brainer on San Diego +6

The Oakland Raiders were just officially eliminated from the playoffs with their 20-30 home loss to the Green Bay Packers last week.  With that realization comes a disappointment that is tough for players to get over.  And they don't have much time to get over it because they have to play just four days later this week against the San Diego Chargers.  I look for the Raiders to come out flat in this one, and for them to likely lose this game outright.

Given the situation, the Raiders should not be this heavily favored over the Chargers.  I think the biggest reason they are is because they already beat San Diego 37-29 on the road in the first meeting.  But that was an awful spot for San Diego, and a great one for Oakland.

The Chargers were coming of a deflating last-second loss at Green Bay the previous week, and they promptly suffered a hangover from it.  They fell behind 37-6 to the Raiders before finally get their wits about them and making it interesting late.  Meanwhile, the Raiders were coming off their bye week, so they had a two full weeks to prepare for the Chargers.  It's no surprise that they came out guns-a-blazing and played one of their best games of the season off their bye.

What I like about San Diego is that it clearly has not packed it in.  The Chargers have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall while being underdogs in three of the four, and a pick 'em in another.  They beat the Jags 31-25 on the road as 5-point dogs, lost to the Broncos 3-17 at home as 6-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score, had a chance to tie the game against Kansas City in the closing seconds in a 3-10 loss as 13-point road dogs, and crushed Miami 30-14 at home last week.

The Chargers have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  They rank 6th in the NFL in total offense at 377.8 yards per game, including 4th in passing offense at 293.8 yards per game.  That makes this an excellent matchup for the Chargers.  The Raiders rank 23rd in the NFL in total defense, including 28th against the pass.  The Chargers just put up 30 points, 442 total yards and 302 passing yards on the Dolphins last week and should continue to roll.

The Raiders aren't that good offensively contrary to popular belief.  They have been held to 24 or fewer points in six straight games, including 20 or fewer in five of the six.  They are averaging just 17.7 points per game during this stretch.  They are 2-5 in their last seven games overall and easily could be 0-7.  They beat Tennessee by 3 only after needing a last-minute touchdown.  Their 15-12 win over Denver was a complete fluke considering they were held to just 126 yards of total offense and were outgained by 184 yards.

It won't be any easier for the Oakland offense this week against a San Diego defense that is hitting its stride here down the stretch.  The Chargers are only giving up 13.7 points per game and 284.3 yards per game over their last three contests.  What you also have to love about the Chargers getting 6 points is that they are better than their 4-10 record as they have lost a lot of close games this year.  Indeed, seven of their 10 losses have come by a touchdown or less.

The Raiders' win over the Chargers in their first meeting this season was an aberration.  The Chargers have won six of the last eight meetings.  They've outgained the Raiders in five straight meetings.  Plus, it hasn't been good to be the favorite in this series.  In fact, the underdog is 12-1 (92%) ATS in the last 13 meetings.

The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Raiders are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 games in December.  The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Plays on road underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

15* Cincinnati/SDSU Hawaii Bowl BAILOUT on San Diego State -3

The San Diego State Aztecs went 10-3 this season and will be going for their first 10-game winning streak in 39 yards.  I look for them to continue their roll and to cap off a fine season with a win and cover against the inconsistent Cincinnati Bearcats in the Hawaii Bowl.

San Diego State's defense has been simply dominant this season.  It ranks first or second in the MWC in 13 different categories.  It ranks 5th nationally in total defense (287.9 yards/game), 6th in rushing D (111.2 yards/game) and 10th in scoring D (17.2 PPG).  The Aztecs held eight straight opponents to 17 points or fewer before beating Air Force in the league title game.

The Aztecs lead the nation in turnover margin (+1.46) and their 31 takeaways are the third-most in the country.  Now they'll be up against a Cincinnati team that is prone to turnovers.  The Bearcats have committed 30 turnovers this season and are -16 in turnover differential.  There's a great chance that turnovers decide this game.

Cincinnati had a late scratch at the quarterback position.  Gunner Kiel has missed the trip for undisclosed personal reasons.  That leaves freshman Hayden Moore to start.  He played well in limited action this year for a freshman with 58.5 percent completions and 1,683 yards, but he threw just nine touchdowns against eight interceptions.  This freshman will be under duress all game against SDSU's fierce pass rush, and I expect him to make plenty of mistakes with the football.

The Aztecs boast a rushing attack that averages 235 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  Donnel Pumphrey is a game-changer.  He was the league's Offensive Player of the Year.  Pumphrey's 1,554 yards are good for 10th nationally.  He has 19 total touchdowns and 27 receptions to boot.

Pumphrey is in line for a big day against Cincinnati's horrid rush defense.  The Bearcats give up 191 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry against teams that only average 151 yards per game and 4.0 per carry.  They gave up 215 to Temple, 220 to Miami Ohio, 212 to UCF, 266 to Houston, 213 to Tulsa and 361 to South Florida.

Cincinnati is 0-8 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  It is losing by an average of 13.1 points per game in this spot.  SDSU is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games versus good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  The Aztecs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight bowl games.  Take San Diego State in the Hawaii Bowl Thursday.

5* Oklahoma/Hawaii ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma -6.5

This is a very generous price to get one of the best teams in the country tonight in the Oklahoma Sooners.  This team legitimately has a chance to win the Big 12 this season with four returning starters from last year.  Lon Kruger is on record as saying this is the hardest-working team he's ever coached.

The Sooners haven't disappointed in the early going.  They're off to a 9-0 start while winning their last eight games by an average of 26.1 points, including a 78-55 victory over then-No. 9 Villanova in Hawaii on December 7.  The Sooners opened their second trip to Honolulu with Tuesday's easy 88-60 victory over Washington State in the first round of the eight-team tournament.

That blowout victory allowed the Sooners to rest their starters down the stretch, so they'll be fresh tonight.  Buddy Hield had two straight 30-point performances before scoring an efficient 25 points in just 26 minutes yesterday.  They played the early game in Honolulu last night, while Hawaii played the late game that didn't tip until 12 AM EST.  Now the Rainbow Warriors will have to get ready for a 9 PM EST tip tonight.

Oklahoma is scoring 87.8 points against teams that give up 72.7, and it is giving up 63.9 points against teams that average 75.1.  That is roughly a plus-26 mark based off what its opponents average.  Hawaii puts up 80.2 points against teams that allow 75.9, and it allows 67.4 against teams that average 72.8.  That's a plus-10 mark for the Warriors.

That means Oklahoma should be favored by 16 points on a neutral court over Hawaii, and roughly 12 points in a true road game.  But the Sooners have played a lot tougher schedule, so their plus-26 mark is much more impressive than Hawaii's plus-10 mark.  This line should be in the 12-to-15-point range instead of 7.5.

The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Warriors are getting too much respect for their win over Northern Iowa last night.  That was a UNI team that wasn't used to playing that late at night, and also one that was in a huge letdown spot off its win over Iowa State just three days earlier.  Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons/Hawks UNDER 202.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons.  I look for a low-scoring battle with neither team topping 100 points in this one folks.

These two teams both prefer to play at slower paces.  The Pistons rank 21st in pace while the Hawks rank 15th.  Both teams are above-average defensively as the Pistons rank 11th in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks check in at 13th.  The Pistons are only 24th in offensive efficiency this season.
 
Detroit shot 15-of-29 from 3-point range last night at Miami, yet it still only won 93-92 for 185 combined points.  It has not played well offensively in second of back-to-back road games.  The Pistons are averaging 88.0 points on 39.9 percent shooting in losing all three of their second half of back-to-backs played on the road.

You also have to like the UNDER in this game based off the recent history in this series.  Five of the last six meetings between the Pistons and Hawks have seen 200 or fewer combined points.  They're averaging 194.8 combined points in their last six meetings, which is roughly eight points less than this 202.5-point total.

Atlanta is 16-4 UNDER in home games versus good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Detroit is 16-3 UNDER in road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog over the last two years.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8

I was on the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game, a 130-125 win at Denver as 1-point underdogs.  I stated that head coach Alvin Gentry had called out his players for their lack of effort following a loss to the Suns, and that they'd come back with a great effort against the Nuggets.

That proved to be the case as Anthony Davis led the way with 27 points, including 19 in the first quarter, despite playing through an illness that required four IV treatments prior to the game.  It was a gutsy performance from him, and I believe the Pelicans will rally around him now and come back with another great effort against the Blazers tonight.

Portland has lost its first four games on this 5-game road trip.  It is getting outscored by 10.0 points per game while giving up 107.5 points on 49.8 percent shooting defensively.  Now the Blazers are expected to be without their two best players in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  They stand no chance of keeping this game close considering that duo is responsible for 42.6 percent of Portland's scoring this season.

The Pelicans want revenge from two losses at Portland already this season, including a 101-105 loss on December 14 just nine days ago.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five of the last six meetings, and 12 of the last 14 meetings overall.

Portland is 1-10 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 11-25 ATS off a road loss over the last two years.  The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* Knicks/Cavs NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 197

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for a low-scoring affair whether or not Carmelo Anthony plays for the Knicks.  He is currently questionable with an ankle injury.

The Knicks rank just 21st in offensive efficiency this season.  Things won't get any easier against a Cleveland team that ranks 6th in defensive efficiency.  The Knicks are solid in this category as well as they are 16th in defensive efficiency.

One thing is almost certain, and that is the fact that this game is going to be played at a snail's pace.  The Cavs rank 28th in the league in pace at 95.6 possessions per game, while the Knicks are 23rd at 96.9 possessions per game.  A snail's pace has indeed been the trend when these teams have gotten together recently.

In fact, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 174, 182, 184, 177 and 185 points.  That's an average of 180.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 197.

The UNDER is 10-3 in Knicks last 13 games following a straight up loss.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavs last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Cavs last 28 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Boise State/NIU Poinsettia Bowl Total DOMINATOR on OVER 56

I expect a shootout in the Poinsettia Bowl between the Boise State Broncos and Northern Illinois Huskies this afternoon. For starters, the weather is going to be perfect for this bowl game at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, which will help aid the offensive fireworks.

This Boise State offense will do the heavy lifting in doing its part to get the OVER.  After all, the Broncos are putting up 37.7 points and 488.6 yards per game on the season.  Brett Rypien is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,973 yards and 17 touchdowns.  Jeremy McNichols has rushed for 1,244 yards and 18 scores.

The Huskies have been solid offensively this season, averaging 33.0 points per game.  That's very impressive when you consider they've played musical chairs at the quarterback position.  Drew Hare got hurt, Ryan Graham got hurt, and Tommy Fiedler was forced into action in the final two games of the season.  The offense did not go well under Fiedler.

But the good news is that Graham is returning at quarterback fro the bowl game as he's fully recovered from his leg injury.  And Graham didn't miss a beat in replacing Hare.  He actually averaged 8.1 yards per attempt compared to the 7.6 from Hare and the 5.9 from Fiedler.  Graham also produced 153 rushing yards in his limited action.

Neither of these defenses are playing very well coming into the bowl game.  The Huskies have allowed an average of 26.3 points and 463.7 yards per game in their last three contests.  The Broncos have been even worse, giving up 30.3 points and 498.0 yards per game in their last three.

Boise State is 6-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 6-0 OVER in road games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Boise State is 10-2 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points over the last two years.  The OVER is 13-3 in Broncos last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Kansas/SDSU Late-Night BAILOUT on Kansas -6.5

Northing is certainly except death, taxes and Kansas winning the Big 12.  The Jayhawks are once again the best team in arguably the best conference in the country.  This team is a little different in that it finally has some experience with four returning starters from last year.  The Jayhawks are on a mission to finish the deal this year.

They are off to a 9-1 start with their only loss coming to top-ranked Michigan State by a final of 73-79 on a neutral court.  They led that game the whole way, too, but allowed the Spartans to come back.  They rest of their games haven't even been close as all nine of their wins have come by 6 points or more.   They are outscoring teams by 23.7 points per game on the season.

The Jayhawks score 89.8 points against teams that allow 73.1, and they allow 66.1 against teams that score 73.4.  That's roughly a plus-24 mark based off of what their opponents average.  San Diego State is scoring 65.7 points per game against teams that allow 69.3, and allowing 59.3 against teams that score 70.2.  That's a plus-7 mark.  Kansas has played a tougher schedule, so it should be at least a 17-point favorite against SDSU on a neutral court.  Factor in the home floor for the Aztecs, and the Jayhawks should be a 13 to 14-point favorite here.

There are several performances by the Aztecs this year that lead me to believe that they can't hang with the Jayhawks.  They lost at home to Arkansas-Little Rock (by 6) as 16.5-point favorites and at home to Grand Canyon (by 7).  There wasn't even a line on that Grand Canyon game as they were expected to blow them out.  They also lost to West Virginia (by 22) on a neutral court.  This is a team that has already lost five games and isn't as good as in year's past under head coach Steve Fisher.

Two seasons ago, SDSU pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season with a 61-57 win at Kansas as 10.5-point underdogs.  This veteran Jayhawks team that returned four starters this year remembers that loss, and it will certainly want to exact some revenge this year.
 
San Diego is 0-12 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  For whatever reason, Fisher hasn't been able to get his team to respond very well with good rest coming into games.  Take Kansas Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/76ers UNDER 195

I look for an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle between the Memphis Grizzlies and Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, and that will be on full display tonight.

The 76ers rank 30th in offensive efficiency, while the Grizzlies are 26th.  Not only are they both inefficient, but this game is sure to be played at a pretty slow pace as well.  The Grizzlies rank 24th in the NBA in pace at 96.6 possessions per game.

The 76ers try to play faster, but they aren't equipped to do it, which is why they are so inefficient.  The 76ers have scored 97 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games overall and put up just 91.2 points per game on the season.  The Grizzlies have been held to 99 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 games overall.

Both meetings last season between these teams were very low-scoring.  They combined for 176 and 184 points in their last two meetings.  That's an average of 180 combined points per game, which is 15 points less than this 195-point total.

The UNDER is 13-5 in Grizzlies last 18 road games.  The UNDER is 33-13-1 in Grizzlies last 47 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Grizzlies last eight games vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple -1.5

The Temple Owls over the Toledo Rockets in the Boca Raton Bowl represents my strongest release of the bowl season prior to the new year.  That makes this my second-favorite bowl play of the season, only behind my 25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR, which will be coming later.  Wager accordingly.

After finishing 2-10 in 2013 and 6-6 last year while not getting selected to a bowl game, the Owls came into the season with the motto "Leave No Doubt".  They certainly left no doubt as they went 10-3 this season and were a win away from playing in a New Year's Day bowl.  Now they get to play in their first bowl game of the Matt Rhule era.

The Owls played a brutal schedule this year, too.  Their three losses came against very good teams.  They lost 20-24 at home to Notre Dame, which about made the four-team playoff.  They did have a 23-44 loss at South Florida, which is a Bulls team that is playing as well as almost anyone in the country, and that game was to get bowl eligible for the Bulls.  It was also a lookahead spot for Temple as it had Memphis on deck.

The other loss came in the AAC Championship in what turned out to be a true road game at Houston.  The Owls lost that game 13-24, but they actually outgained the Cougars by 46 yards in that contest.  They held the high-powered Cougars to just 339 yards in that loss, but two turnovers committed by their offense were their undoing.

This Temple defense is legitimately one of the top stop units in the country.  It held Notre Dame to just 24 points, Houston to 24 points, and a high-powered Memphis attack to just 12 points and 232 total yards.  The Owls only give up 19.2 points, 329.2 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that average 27.5 points, 403 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  Their defense is going to be the difference in this one.

Toledo is getting way too much credit for its 9-2 season that featured wins over Power 5 schools in Iowa State and Arkansas.  But the Rockets were outgained by 172 yards by Iowa State and only won that game in OT after the Cyclones missed a chip-shot field goal that would have won it.  They were also outgained by 197 yards in a fluke 16-12 win over Arkansas.

Temple head coach Matt Rhule is going to be on the sideline for this game after signing a new contract and seeing it through with his players that they win a bowl game after getting snubbed last year.  I trust in Bronko Nagurski Award winner Tyler Matakevich and this huge senior class at Temple to show up for this bowl game and finish the season on a high note with a win to get their 11th victory.

I do not trust the Toledo players to show up.  Head coach Matt Campbell left for Iowa State, leaving first-time coach Jason Candle to guide the Rockets.  That's one of the biggest factors in this game for me is that the Rockets have an interim coach after Campbell bailed on them.

I also like this matchup for the Owls.  The Rockets rely heavily on their running game to move the ball.  They rush for 213 yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  But the going is going to be tough against this Owls defense, which gives up just 126 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  The Owls held five of their opponents this season to season lows in yards.

Toledo is 0-7 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last there seasons.  Rhule is 9-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game as the coach of Temple.  The Owls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.  The Rockets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Bet Temple Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Xavier -7

The Xavier Musketeers have been the most underrated team in the country this season.  They made the Elite 8 last year, but everyone felt like they got lucky.  The Musketeers have been making a point to prove that it was no fluke and that they are a legitimate Final Four contender this year.

Indeed, they are off to an 11-0 start this season and have left almost everyone in the dust.  They are outscoring teams by 18.8 points per game.  They are scoring 81.7 points per game against teams that allow 68.9, and giving up 62.9 points per game against teams that score 73.4.  That's essentially a plus-24 mark based off of what their opponents average.

Let's highlight some of their wins just to show how good they really are.  They won by 16 in a true road game at Michigan, by 19 on a neutral court over Alabama, by 10 on a neutral court over USC, by 29 on the neutral court against Dayton, and by 10 at home against Cincinnati.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are off to an 8-2 start this season, but they are only outscoring teams by 0.9 points per game.  They score 79.7 points per game against teams that allow 72.1, but they give up 78.8 points per game against teams that score 77.8.  That's only a plus-7 mark based off of what their opponents average.

Both teams have played equal schedules, so the Musketeers' plus-24 mark over the Demon Deacons' plus-7 mark means the Musketeers should be favored by 17 on a neutral court.  That also means they should be favored by 13-14 at Wake Forest, yet this line is only -7.

The Demon Deacons have been beaten badly at home against Richmond (by 9) and on a neutral court against Vanderbilt (by 22).  They also have narrow home wins this season over MD-Balt County (by 5), Arkansas (by 3), UNC-Greensboro (by 10) and Coastal Carolina (by 6).  Those performances don't lead me to believe that they can even keep this game close against arguably the best team in the country in Xavier.

Xavier is 8-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Musketeers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Demon Deacons are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Wake Forest is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Musketeers.  Bet Xavier Tuesday.

15* Iowa State/Cincinnati ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State +4.5

The 11th-ranked Iowa State Cyclones needed a wake-up call.  They started the season 9-0 but gave lackluster efforts in the first 30 minutes of most of their games before turning it on in the final 10.  That was evident in an 83-82 win over Iowa in which they trailed by 20 points in the second half.

In their last game, the Cyclones trailed most the way against Northern Iowa and again made a comeback.  But it fell just short as they lost 79-81.  Now, everything went right for Northern Iowa as it shot 58% from the floor, including an unlikely 13-of-22 (59.1%) from 3-point range.  That's what it took to beat a team as good as the Cyclones.

But after getting that wake-up call, I expect to see the best effort of the season from the Cyclones tonight against the Cincinnati Bearcats.  They have shown what they're capable of when they have their foot on the gas in the final 10 minutes of games, and now I expect to see that effort over a full 40 minutes now that they finally lost a game.

Cincinnati has lost to the two best teams it has played in Xavier (lost by 10) and Butler.  It doesn't really have many good wins as its best victories have come against Nebraska (by 4), George Washington (by 5) and VCU (by 6).  While I expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, the +4.5 could certainly come into play if it's close late.

Cincinnati is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Cyclones are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games.  The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Iowa State Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Utah Jazz -4

The Utah Jazz are way undervalued right now because of their recent results.  They have lost four of their last five games, but two of those came to Oklahoma City and another to San Antonio.  They lost to OKC by 4 and 6 points with one going into OT.  They did get back on track Friday with a 97-88 home win over the Nuggets, though.

Now the Jazz have had two days off since that game and will be well-rested and ready to go.  The same cannot be said for the Phoenix Suns, who lost 95-101 at home to the Milwaukee Bucks Sunday.  Now the Suns will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They won't be able to match the Jazz's energy or intensity level in this one as a result.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The Jazz have won their last two home meetings with the Suns by 27 and 25 points.  They've won five of their last six home meetings with the Suns.  Phoenix has dropped 10 of 14 road games this season and 25 of 33 dating back to January.

The Jazz are 9-1 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Utah is 33-16 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Jazz Monday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Saints OVER 50.5

While I would take the Saints if I was forced to take a side, I don't trust either of these teams against the spread.  I do, however, feel there is great value with the OVER in this game.  Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and when two teams don't have anything to play for, there's a good chance it's going to be a high-scoring, playground-type game.  I foresee that being the case in this one, especially in front of the bright lights on Monday Night Football.

Both teams are used to playing inside a dome, and this will be ideal conditions for each to maximize their offense.  After all, the last four Saints' home games have all exceeded this 50.5-point total.  Indeed, they combined for 52 points with the Falcons (31-21), 101 points with the Giants (52-49), 62 points with the Titans (28-34) and 79 points with the Panthers (38-41) in their last four home games, respectively.  They have combined for an average of 73.5 points and 866 total yards per game with their opponents in their last four home games.  That's 23 more points than this 50.5-point total.

It has been well documented that the Saints are on a record-setting pace for attrition defensively this season.  They give up a league-most 30.5 points and 416.1 yards per game this season while surrendering 6.7 yards per play as well.  And it's not like the Lions have been a whole lot better as they give up 25.8 points and 5.8 yards per play this season, both among the worst marks in the league.
 
The Lions have been better offensively here of late as they are averaging 27.3 points per game in their last three contests.  The Saints still have a high-powered offense that puts up 24.8 points per game while ranking 4th in the NFL in total offense at 395.0 yards per game.  Plus, Drew Brees and company have really enjoyed facing the Lions.

The last four meetings in this series have seen 47, 73, 48 and 72 combined points with the 73 and 72-point performances both coming in New Orleans.  That's an average of 60.0 combined points per game.  The Saints have owned the Lions in the last five meetings, averaging 37.2 points and 503.8 yards per game.  They will certainly do their part in getting this OVER, and I fully expect one of the best offensive outputs of the season from the Lions against this putrid New Orleans defense.

The OVER is 5-1 in Lions last six games on fieldturf.  The OVER is 8-2 in Lions last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  New Orleans is 18-6 to the OVER in its last 24 home games versus poor rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Neither team can run the football, which is going to make this a pass-heavy game, and that favors the over with more clock stoppages.  The Saints are 32nd in the league in giving up 8.5 yards per pass attempt, while the Lions are 23rd at 7.7 per attempt.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country this season under legendary head coach Kelvin Sampson.  They returned four starters this year and were going to be better, but not many saw this 8-1 start coming.  They continue to be undervalued here as only 2-point favorites over Grand Canyon in this Global Sports Classic in Las Vegas.

The Cougars have been rolling this season, averaging 85.6 points and 49.4% shooting offensively, while giving up 69.2 points and 43.1% shooting defensively.  They are outscoring foes by 16.4 points per game.  Their only loss came on the road at Rhode Island, and they've beaten the likes of LSU and Murray State.

Grand Canyon has certainly played well under head coach Dan Majerle.  It is 9-2 on the season, but that has come against a very easy schedule.  This is a team that lost 63-111 to Louisville.  But Grand Canyon comes in overvalued off a huge upset win at San Diego State on Friday, which sets it up for a letdown spot here.

The Cougars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.  The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Antelopes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Houston Monday.

15* WKU/USF Miami Beach Bowl No-Brainer on South Florida +2.5

The South Florida Bulls are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game this year.  After going a combined 6-18 in Willie Taggart's first two seasons, the Bulls put together an 8-4 campaign this year that not many saw coming.  This team was one of the most improved teams in the country, and yet they still aren't getting the respect they deserve here as underdogs to C-USA opponent Western Kentucky.

The Bulls head into this bowl game playing literally as well as almost anyone in the country.  They have won four straight and seven of their last eight.  The last four wins have been mighty impressive to say the least when you dive a little deeper into the box scores of the four games.

It started with a 22-17 win at East Carolina as 5.5-point dogs as the Bulls outgained the Pirates by 222 yards in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score.  Then came a 44-23 win over Temple as 2.5-point home dogs.  The Bulls outgained the Owls by 176 yards.  Then came a 65-27 home win over Cincinnati as 1-point dogs as the Bulls outgained the Bearcats by 131 yards.  They finished their season with a 44-3 win at UCF as 24.5-point favorites and outgained the Knights by 252 yards.

Add it all up, and this 4-0 run has seen the Bulls pull three 'upsets' while outscoring their four opponents by an average of 26.3 points per game and outgain them by an average of 195.3 yards per game.  In their last three games alone, the Bulls are putting up 52.3 points and 514.7 yards per game, while allowing just 21.0 points and 260.3 yards per game.  If that's not great football, then I don't know what is.

"The beauty is they're a young team, they're young guys, and they're learning to be that way at a young age," Taggart said. "The future is very bright here at USF."

That optimism is centered around a pair of sophomores, running back Marlon Mack (1,273 rushing yards, 8 TDs) and dynamic quarterback Quinton Flowers (883 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 21 TD passes). The duo heads a relentless rushing attack that's amassed at least 242 yards in all eight wins.

Western Kentucky also had a great season with an 11-2 record and a Conference USA Championship.  However, the difference is that C-USA isn't nearly as strong as the American Athletic.  So, Western Kentucky's wins over top C-USA teams like Marshall and Southern Miss aren't nearly as impressive as South Florida's wins over top AAC teams like Temple and Cincinnati.

We saw the Hilltoppers struggle when they stepped out of conference, which is an even bigger indication that C-USA isn't very good considering WKU is its best team.  WKU only beat Vanderbilt 14-12 and gained just 247 total yards against the Commodores.  WKU also lost to Indiana 35-38 and gave up 639 total yards to the Hoosiers.  The other loss was a 20-48 setback at LSU.

WKU is perceived to have the better offense because it put up better numbers than USF, but keep in mind it came against a much easier schedule.  I believe the way the Bulls are playing right now offensively that they are every bit as good as the Hilltoppers on that side of the ball.

But the difference is going to be USF's defense, which is better than WKU's stop unit.  The Bulls only give up 21.1 points, 361 yards per game and 5.0 per play this season.  The Hilltoppers allow 25.2 points, 389 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season.  Keep in mind the ease of the schedule in which the Hilltoppers played, too, when comparing these numbers.

South Florida is 9-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two years.  Stopping Brandon Doughty and the WKU passing attack will be key, and the Bulls have the goods to do it.  They give up just 54.5% completions, 221 passing yards per game and 6.6 yards per pass attempt.  Take South Florida Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

After going 45-37 last year, the New Orleans Pelicans had high hopes of being among the Western Conference's best teams this season.  Instead, injuries derailed them early, and despite the fact that they are now healthy, they continue to be inconsistent.  They are just 7-19 this year.

Things came to a boiling point in their loss to Phoenix on Friday, and first-year head coach Alvin Gentry called out his team.   ''Terrible, terrible, bad effort,'' Gentry said after a 104-88 loss to the Suns. ''Not playing hard, not giving a damn, that's the way I want to sum it up. We didn't play with effort. We didn't play together as a team, so nothing worked. Nothing, nothing.''

"We played terrible," start center Anthony Davis said. "We weren't competing and we didn't play hard. They just did whatever they wanted and we acted like we didn't want to be here."

After voicing their frustrations through the media and amongst each other, I fully expect the Pelicans to put forth their best effort of the season Sunday against the Denver Nuggets.  This is a team that they can and should beat with the talent they have, and with a little more effort here, I expect them to roll to victory.

The Nuggets come in overvalued after winning five of their last seven games, but four of those wins came by 6 points or less and by a combined 12 points.  They have beaten the Raptors, 76ers, Rockets & Timberwolves (twice) during this stretch.  They also lost by 11 to Orlando and by 9 to Utah.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won four straight meetings.  The Pelicans also want revenge from their 98-115 home loss to the Nuggets in their first meeting this season on November 17.

Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Pelicans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Sunday games.  The Nuggets are 16-38-2 ATS in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay Packers -3

I've been saying for a while now that Mike McCarthy needed to resume his old role of calling the plays for the Packers.  This offense was really lost up to this point and underperforming based off of the success they had in recent seasons.  But McCarthy finally made the right move and took over the playbook last week against the Cowboys.

The result? How about a 28-7 win over Dallas in which the Packers racked up 435 total yards, including 230 rushing, to take some pressure off of Aaron Rodgers.  This offense should keep rolling this week against an Oakland defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.

The Raiders rank 25th in total defense, giving up 373 yards per game.  They are also 28th against the pass, allowing an average of 371.5 passing yards per game.  While they are only giving up 101 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry, that's not that great when you consider their opponents only average 104 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry on the season.  This is just an average run defense, so expect Eddie Lacy to continue his late-season surge this week.

While the Packers have gotten it together offensively in recent weeks, their defense continues to play at a very high level.  They are only allowing 18.8 points per game on the season, including 15.7 points and 288.7 yards per game over their last three contests.

The Raiders could easily be 0-6 in their last six games instead of 2-4.  They needed a last-minute touchdown to beat Tennessee by 3.  Then they were thoroughly outplayed by Denver last week, getting outgained by 184 yards while being held to just 126 yards of total offense.  But somehow they managed to win that game 15-12, and now they are clearly being overvalued after that huge win.

The Raiders are just 2-4 at home this season and have one of the worst home-field advantages in the NFL.  They are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less.  They are losing in these games by an average of 9.0 points per game.  The Raiders are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 December games as well.

The Packers are notorious strong finishers as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four December games.  Green Bay is 57-33 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season since 1992.  The Raiders are 6-15 ATS following an ATS win over the last three seasons.  McCarthy is 24-7 ATS vs. mistake-prone teams who commit 60-plus yards in penalties as the coach of Green Bay.  Jack Del Rio is 1-11 ATS in home games off a win by 6 points or less in all games he has coached.  Take the Packers Sunday.

25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on New York Giants +4.5

Eli Manning is a man of few words. However, after a three-game losing streak and a ton of close losses this season, Manning gave his team a speech leading up to the Miami game last week. It emphasized finishing games, and boy did he back up his talk. Manning had his best game of the year, completing 27 of 31 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the 31-24 win at Miami. Look for this team to be brimming with confidence now heading into this game against undefeated Carolina.

Because the Giants have lost so many close games this year, it’s easy to see why I believe there is value in getting them as 4.5-point home underdogs here. Six of the Giants’ seven losses this season have come by 6 points or less, so they have only been blown out once all season. There’s a great chance this game is decided by less than 4.5 points.

I also like the fact that the Giants have a lot to play for right now and need this win more. They are currently in a 3-way tie with the Eagles and Redskins atop the NFC East as all three teams won last week. The Panthers can afford a loss now that they’re 13-0 knowing that they’d still be in line to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC even with a defeat.

The Giants are 3-3 at home this season with wins over the Redskins, 49ers and Cowboys. But in their three losses, they held a late lead over the Patriots, Jets and Falcons. The blew a 20-10 fourth quarter lead against the Falcons and lost by 4, they blew an identical 20-10 fourth quarter lead against the Jets and lost in overtime by 3, and they allowed Tom Brady to engineer a game-winning drive, losing on a last-second field goal by 1. If they can play with the Patriots at home, then can certainly hang with the Panthers.

The fact of the matter is that bettors are being asked to pay a premium to back the Panthers right now. That’s because they are 13-0 SU & 10-3 ATS this season, making backers a ton of money at the pay window. This 4.5-point spread is essentially saying that the Panthers would be 7.5-point favorites on a neutral field, which is too much. The Panthers nearly lost as 5.5-point road favorites at New Orleans in their last road game, winning by 3. It’s time to fade this team here down the stretch.

Three key Carolina players are all nursing injuries but are expected to play Sunday. TE Greg Olsen (knee), QB Cam Newton (wrist) and LB Luke Kuechly (ankle) are all banged up right now. Now to mention, RB Jonathan Stewart will miss this game with a foot injury. Stewart is a big loss because he’s far and away the team’s top rusher with 989 yards and six touchdowns. Next in line are Mike Tolbert (175 yards) and Fozzy Whittaker (74 yards).

The Panthers are going to have their hands full with this Giants' passing attack that ranks 6th in the league at 272.0 yards per game.  Odell Beckham has been an absolute beast as he's tied for the NFL lead with 12 touchdown receptions.  Carolina is banged up in the secondary as well.  It lost cornerback Bene Benwikere to a fractured leg last weekend after he had been starting for Charles Tillman, who has missed the last four games with a sprained knee.

Plays against road favorites (CAROLINA) – off a home blowout win by 21 points or more are 67-36 (65%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against road teams (CAROLINA) – off a win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* Davidson/Pitt ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -5

The Pitt Panthers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to an 8-1 start with their only loss coming to Purdue, which is 11-1 on the season.  The numbers this team is putting up are very impressive and certainly lead me to believe they will win this game against Davidson by more than five points.

Jamie Dixon returned four starters and has his best team in years.  The Panthers are outscoring teams by 23.7 points per game this season.  They score 85.3 points per game against teams that give up 75.3 points per game, and they give up 61.6 points per game against teams that average 73.9.  That's roughly a plus-24 point edge against what their opponents average.

Davidson is also off to a solid 7-1 start, but this team has feasted on an easy schedule.  Its seven wins have come against UCF (by 5), College of Charleston (by 1), Mercer (by 6), Denison (by 13), Charlotte, (by 35), Eastern Washington (by 10), and Western Carolina (by 33).  As you can see, the Wildcats have won a lot of close games this year.

In their toughest game of the season, the Wildcats were thoroughly overmatched at North Carolina in a 65-98 road loss as 15-point dogs.  UNC is a better team than Pitt, but it's not that far off.  The Panthers are a real force to be reckoned with in the ACC this season.

Davidson is scoring 13 more points than its opponents give up on average, but it is giving up 2 more points than its opponents average.  That's a plus-11 point edge against what its opponents average.  Compare that to Pitt's plus-24 point edge, and I would make the Panthers 13-point favorites on a neutral court.  Well, this is on a neutral court, and the Panthers should be heavier favorites.

These teams do have a common opponent in Eastern Washington.  Davidson only beat Eastern Washington 96-86 as 16.5-point home favorites.  Pittsburgh beat Eastern Washington 84-51 as 19-point home favorites.  So, the Wildcats only won by 10 while the Panthers won by 33.  This is another sign that the Panthers are far and away the superior team.

The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Davidson is 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Davidson is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Sunday games.  These four trends make for a combined 24-1 system going against the Wildcats.  Bet Pitt Sunday.

20* Arkansas State/LA Tech New Orleans Bowl BAILOUT on Louisiana Tech -1.5

Arkansas State rolled through the awful Sun Belt this season with a perfect 8-0 record.  They also went 6-2 ATS in those final eight games.  That finish has them way overvalued heading into this New Orleans Bowl against Louisiana Tech as just 1.5-point underdogs.

When the Red Wolves stepped out of conference against tougher competition, they really struggled.  They lost by 30 to Toledo and by 49 to USC en route to a 1-3 non-conference record.  Now they face the best team that they have since the non-conference in LA Tech.

The Bulldogs failed to cover the spread in their final two games this season, which I believe has them undervalued.  They have a sour taste in their mouths from a 34-point loss to Southern Miss in the finale that will have these players chomping at the bit to get back on the field and redeem themselves.  But everything that could go wrong against Southern Miss, did.  They turned the ball over 7 times to give the game away.

That loss to Southern Miss was one of four for the Bulldogs this season.  The other three all came on the road, including narrow losses to quality teams in Western Kentucky (by 3) and Kansas State (by 6, OT).  The other was a 25-point loss at SEC power Mississippi State.

LA Tech has had the opportunity to face a Sun Belt team this season, and it rolled.  The Bulldogs beat Louisiana-Lafayette by 29 and outgained the Rajin' Cajuns by 97 yards.  They won that game 43-14, limiting them to just 331 yards of total offense.  That gives LA Tech and Arkansas State a common opponent.

Arkansas State only beat Louisiana-Lafayette 37-27 on the road.  The Red Wolves won that game despite getting outgained by 50 yards by the Rajin Cajuns.  They allowed 485 total yards and were very fortunate to come away with a victory.

LA Tech played a tougher schedule than Arkansas State, yet it was still better statistically this season.  The Bulldogs are outgaining teams by 83 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play.  The Red Wolves are only outgaining teams by 51 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.

This is a great matchup for the Bulldogs.  The Red Wolves rely heavily on the run, rushing for 236 yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  But the strength of the Bulldogs is their ability to stop the run defensively.  They give up just 116 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.

This is going to be like a home game for LA Tech as it will be playing in their home state down in New Orleans.  Senior QB Jeff Driskel, who has thrown 24 touchdowns against eight interceptions while also rushing for 307 yards and five scores, wants to go out with a bang.

As does senior RB Kenneth Dixon, who has rushed for 971 yards and 22 total touchdowns this season despite missing two games with an ankle injury.  He has rushed for 4,378 yards in his career here.  His 83 career touchdowns are currently two behind Navy's Keenan Reynolds for the all-time mark, so he will certainly be determined to try and post one final big game to push Reynolds for that record.

This is a matchup of former conference rivals.  Louisiana Tech has gone 9-1 straight up in its last 10 meetings with Arkansas State with seven of those wins coming by 14 points or more.  Arkansas State is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in its last game.  LA Tech is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Bulldogs are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* Baylor/Texas A&M ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M -2.5

The Baylor Bears are off to a 7-1 start because they have played one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They have played seven of their first eight games at home.  In their lone road game, they lost 67-74 at Oregon.  This will be just their second true road game of the season.

The Texas A&M Aggies are the real deal this season.  They are off to an 8-2 start despite playing a brutal schedule.  They have already faced the likes of Texas, Gonzaga, Syracuse and Arizona State all on the road, while also beating Kansas State by 10 at home.  They beat Texas and Gonzaga with their two losses coming to Syracuse and ASU.

So, the Aggies are clearly battle-tested due to the schedule they've been up against.  The Bears are not battle-tested at all.  I'll gladly back the better team that has played tougher competition up to this point, especially when that team is playing at home and laying only 2.5 points.  The Aggies are 6-0 at home this year, beating teams by 25.8 points per game.

Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the last three seasons.  The Aggies are 9-2 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two years.  The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Aggies also have a nice scheduling advantage as they last played 7 days ago while the Bears last played 3 days ago.  Take Texas A&M Saturday.

15* Jets/Cowboys NFL Saturday No-Brainer on New York -3

The Jets can’t afford to take their foot off the gas this week. They are 8-5 on the season and tied with Pittsburgh and Kansas City for the final two wild card spots in the AFC. Only two of those three teams will be going to the playoffs, so it’s essential that the Jets continue to win. I like their frame of mind coming into this one, and I really like the way this team is playing right now.

The Jets have won three straight games coming in and have been dominant in doing so. Offensively, the Jets are averaging 30.3 points and 437.7 yards per game in their last three games, and their offense just doesn’t get enough credit. Everyone knows that the Jets have an elite defense, giving up 16.0 points and 326.7 yards per game in their last three. So, they’re outscoring opponents by 14.3 points per game and outgaining them by 111.0 yards per game in their last three.

The Cowboys are not going to be in a good frame of mind in this game. Entering last week, the Cowboys were only one game out of first place in the NFC. But after a 7-28 loss to the Packers, and with the Redskins, Eagles and Giants all winning, the Cowboys now find themselves a full two games back in the NFC East with three games to go. It will be nearly impossible for them to win the division now, and the players know it. Look for them to not even show up this week.

The Cowboys are 1-8 without Tony Romo as their starting quarterback. Their lone win came on a last-second field goal over the Washington Redskins. It was same old, same old for the Cowboys last week against the Packers. They got nothing going offensively as they managed just 270 total yards, including a 13-for-29 effort from Matt Cassel. They finished with just 99 passing yards. Their defense also had a poor game, giving up 28 points and 435 yards to the Packers.

Dallas has struggled offensively all season, averaging just 17.7 points and 325.8 yards per game on the year. Things aren’t going to get any easier against this Jets defense, which gives up just 19.7 points and 323.8 yards per game. Darrelle Revis just returned to the lineup last week and helped shut down the Titans, and having him back is huge to match up with Dez Bryant.

Dallas has really struggled at home this season. It is 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS at home this year, getting outscored by 10.0 points per game on average. The Cowboys really haven’t had a very good home-field advantage since they got the new stadium. That new stadium attracts a lot of fans from the other team, and most of the time you’ll be hearing loud cheers when the other team does something well. I can’t imagine the fan support for this home game for the Cowboys is going to be very great this week given their current standing in the NFC East. They are done for.

Matt Cassel has been far worse than the other two quarterbacks on this roster in Romo and Brandon Weeden. Cassel is completing just 58.9 percent of his passes with a 5-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging only 6.3 yards per attempt. All he does is check the ball down and rarely take deep shots, which makes this offense so predictable. The fact that Dez Bryant only has 27 receptions for 351 yards and two touchdowns despite playing in eight games tells you all you need to know. They don’t even look for him most the time.

Jason Garrett is 15-28 ATS in all home games as the coach of the Cowboys. Garrett is 4-12 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive ATS losses at Dallas. The Jets are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games. The Cowboys are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games on fieldturf.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Saint Louis -2.5

Last year was a rebuilding year for the Saint Louis Billikens, who had to break in five new starters and managed to go just 11-21.  That was a rare down year for this program and head coach Jim Crews, who is still 71-39 in his three-plus seasons here even after that disaster.

But the Billikens are vastly improved this season thanks to four returning starters and much better experience.  They are off to a 5-4 start this season.  They opened 4-0 with four straight wins by double-digits before running into the brutal portion of their schedule.

They have lost four of their last five, which has them undervalued here.  But three of those losses came to Louisville, Morehead State and Wichita State.  The Billikens have failed to cover the spread in four straight lined games, which also has them undervalued, especially after an upset loss to Tennessee-Martin last time out.

Indiana State is just 4-6 this season and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers.  This is a team that already has losses at home to IUPUI and on the road to Eastern Illinois.  Its four wins have come against Wyoming, Norfolk State, Hofstra and Illinois-Springfield.  The Sycamores don't have a quality win yet.

This has been a one-sided series as Saint Louis is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  It has home wins by 9 and 17 points, as well as a 13-point road win last year.  And we know how down the Billikens were last season, yet they went on the road and beat the Sycamores 69-56 as 3.5-point underdogs.

Indiana State is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who average 6 or less steals per game over the last two seasons.  The Sycamores are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.  Indiana State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games vs. Atlantic 10 opponents.  Roll with Saint Louis Saturday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH on New York Knicks +3

The Chicago Bulls are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back after playing in a 4-overtime, 144-147 home loss to the Detroit Pistons last night.  Now they have to travel all the way to New York to face the Knicks Saturday night with a 7:35 EST tip.

Fred Hoiberg played the same five guys for almost the entire four overtimes.  As a result, Jimmy Butler played 56 minutes, Derrick Rose played 54, Pau Gasol play 48, Taj Gibson played 44 and Tony Snell played 38.  It's safe to say that none of these players are going to have anything left in the tank Saturday.

New York will also be playing the second of a back-to-back after a 107-97 win at Philadelphia Friday.  But this game was decided by the start of the 4th quarter as the Knicks led by 21.  As a result, key starters played small minutes. Carmelo Anthony (28) had the most minutes of anyone, while Arron Afflalo (26), Jose Calderon (24) Kristaps Porzingis (26) and Robin Lopez (16) all had ample rest as well.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series between New York and Chicago.  Indeed, the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The Bulls are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 Saturday games.  The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  This will also be the 7th game in 11 days for the Bulls, who are simply running on fumes right now.  Bet the Knicks Saturday.

15* Ohio/App State Camellia Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Ohio +7.5

The Appalachian State Mountaineers had a very solid 10-2 season this year.  Give them a lot of credit, but that record clearly has them overvalued heading into this Camellia Bowl against MAC opponent, Ohio.  The Mountaineers should not be favored by more than a touchdown.

After all, the Mountaineers played one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They beat Howard, Old Dominion and Wyoming out of conference, and lost by 31 to Clemson in their other non-conference game.  Their other seven wins came against Sun Belt teams, and they lost to the second-best team they played this season in Arkansas State 27-40 at home.

The Mountaineers also have a couple of shaky performances within the Sun Belt that make be believe they are going to struggle to win this game, let alone beat Ohio by more than a touchdown.  They needed overtime to beat Try 44-41 at home, and they only won 34-27 at South Alabama as 18-point favorites in their final game of the season.

Ohio played a much more difficult schedule in the MAC and came away with an 8-4 record.  After a 5-1 start, this team lost three in a row, but showed a ton of heart with how they finished the season.  That finish has me liking their chances of pulling off the upset here in the Camellia Bowl.

Indeed, this is a veteran Bobcats bunch that returned 18 starters from last year, and they weren't going to go away quietly down the stretch.  They beat Kent State 27-0 and Ball State 48-31 at home before going on the road and upsetting Northern Illinois 26-21, a team that has won three of the last five MAC titles.

In these last three games, the Bobcats are scoring 33.7 points and averaging 484.0 yards per game.  They are giving up just 17.3 points and 313.3 yards per game.  As you can see, they are outscoring opponents by 16.4 points per game and outgaining them by 171 yards per game.  They have outgained four of their last five opponents with the only exception being the 38 yards they were outgained by Bowling Green, which won the MAC this year.

The Bobcats really got their running game going down the stretch, rushing for 298.5 yards per game over their final four games.  The Mountaineers have been vulnerable against the run at times as they gave up 309 yards to Arkansas State, 218 to Wyoming and 214 to South Alabama.  The Mountaineers rush for 268 yards per game, so stopping the run will be key.  The Bobcats held Northern Illinois to just 73 rushing yards on 38 carries in their final game, and they've allowed just 109.0 rushing yards per game in their last three.

The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Ohio is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games after gaining more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game.  The Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.  These four trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Bobcats.  Roll with Ohio Saturday.

15* Arizona/New Mexico 2015 Bowl Season Opener on New Mexico +9

This is a classic case of a team that wants to be in their bowl game and a team that doesn't.  I'll gladly back the team that wants to be in this New Mexico Bowl, and catching 9 points is just an added bonus.

Bob Davie is in his fourth year of changing the culture at New Mexico.  After a 7-5 season, the Lobos will now be going to their fist bowl game since 2007.  They will be playing on their home field in Albuquerque, no less.

"It's a big deal for us to get in this game," Davie said. "Everyone knows the dynamics of what has gone on here to get this program back. We're getting better, and not everyone in the country can say that."

The Arizona Wildcats won 10 games in 2014 and made an appearance in the Pac-12 title game that culminated in a trip to the Fiesta Bowl.  After that performance last year, these players aren't going to be nearly as excited to be going to the New Mexico Bowl after a 6-6 season in 2015.

But they overachieved last year, and injuries really derailed them after a 3-0 start this season.  They needed a 37-30 home upset of Utah just to become bowl eligible after three straight losses, and they concluded their season with a 37-52 loss at Arizona State for four defeats in their final five games.

New Mexico has beaten some very quality teams here down the stretch.  It won 14-13 at home over Utah State as 20.5-point dogs, 31-24 at Boise State as 30.5 point dogs, and 47-35 at home against Air Force as 11-point dogs in three of its final four games.  As you can see, the Lobos relish the opportunity of playing the underdog role.

This is a great matchup for the Lobos.  They rush for 248 yards per game and 5.2 per carry, and their 37 rushing touchdowns are the sixth-most in the nation.  Arizona gives up 188 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry against teams that only average 165 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

The Wildcats have surrendered at least 30 points nine times this season and rank 10th in the Pac-12 in total defense at 463.4 yards per game.  They have really been torched on the ground here of late, giving up at least 201 rushing yards in four straight games.  New Mexico rushed for 268 against Colorado State and 377 against Air Force in its final two games of the year.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW MEXICO) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent after a road game where both teams score 31 points or more are 44-18 (71%) ATS since 1992.

Arizona is 0-8 ATS after covering the spread in two of its last three games over the last two seasons.  It is losing these games by an average of 23.0 points per game.  The Lobos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win over a conference opponent as a home underdog.  Take New Mexico Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana +1

The Indiana Hoosiers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish square off at Banker's Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis Saturday in a huge in-state clash.  I believe the wrong team is favored here as the Hoosiers will run away with this one as 1-point underdogs.

Indiana is off to an 8-3 start this season against a brutal schedule.  It has already had to face the likes of Creighton, Wake Forest, UNLV and Duke.  Two of its three losses have come by a combined 7 points.  The only blowout loss came at Duke, and nobody wins in Durham.  But since that loss, the Hoosiers have reeled off three straight blowout victories by 33, 25 and 45 points.

Notre Dame hasn't impressed me at all this season.  Its best wins have come against Iowa (by 6) and Illinois (by 5).  It has lost to the likes of Monmouth and Alabama this season.  The Fighting Irish lost their two best players from last year, and they just aren't as good as they were a year ago when they made a run to the Elite 8.

Indiana returned four starters and brought in one of the best recruits in the country in Thomas Bryant.  Bryant (11.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) has played well in his rookie season.  But three returning starters in Yogi Ferrell (16.8 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.8 rpg), James Blackmon (16.0 ppg, 4.0 rpg) and Troy Williams (13.0 ppg, 6.9 rpg) are all playing lights out.  This is a team to be reckoned with in the Big Ten.  Roll with Indiana Saturday.

15* Villanova/Virginia ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Virginia -4.5

The Virginia Cavaliers are 8-1 and one of the best teams in the country this season.  Their only loss came on the road against a tough George Washington team in their second game of the season by 5 points.  They have rolled in all other games.

Indeed, seven of their eight wins have come by 15 points or more.  The lone exception was a 6-point road win at Ohio State.  They just beat West Virginia by 16 as 4.5-point favorites last time out.  What's most impressive about this start is that six of the nine games have been played on the road.

The Cavaliers are outscoring teams by 19.2 points per game on the season.  Their defense has been suffocating once again as they allow 57.1 points per game against teams that average 69.7.  Their offense is improved as they put up 76.3 points against teams that give up 68.

Villanova is off to an identical 8-1 start.  The difference is that the Wildcats have played an easier schedule with just four road games compared to five at home.  They have beaten Stanford, Georgia Tech and St. Joe's on the road, but in their biggest game of the season up to this point, they were destroyed 55-78 by Oklahoma.  A similar fate will be in store for the Wildcats tonight.

Tony Bennett is 8-1 ATS in home games off two straight wins by 15 points or more as the coach of Virginia.  The Cavaliers are coming back to win by 23.5 points per game on average in their next game.  The Cavaliers are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 Saturday games.  The Cavaliers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Long Beach State +12.5

The Long Beach State 49ers have been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball in the early going.  They have played a brutal schedule with 12 games in less than a month against great competition, and they've managed to get through it with a 6-6 record straight up and a 7-2 ATS mark in all lined games.

The 49ers have only been blown out once this season, and that came against Virginia.  Five of their six losses have all come by 7 points or less to Oklahoma State (by 5), San Diego State (by 4), UCLA (by 7), Pepperdine (by 2) and Oklahoma State (by 6) again.  Four of those five losses came on the road.

The 49ers have some great wins to their name as well.  They have beaten BYU as 3.5-point dogs, Seton Hall as a4.5-point dogs, Colorado State as 8-point dogs, and New Mexico State (by 14) as 1-point favorites.  As you can see, they have played such a tough schedule.

Oregon is off to an 8-2 start this season an is laying a few too many points here as a result.  The Ducks have narrow wins over Baylor (by 7), Valpo (by 6) and Fresno State (by 5) all at home this year.  They have also lost to Boise State (by 2) on the road and UNLV (by 11) on a neutral court.

This is a good spot for the 49ers, who have finally had some rest coming into this one.  They have had five days off in between games having last played in an 87-60 home win over Tampa U on December 12.  The Ducks, meanwhile, will be playing their 3rd game in 7 days and have had just two days off since their 15-point win over UC-Irvine on Tuesday.

Oregon has made a living off of forcing turnovers this season and getting easy baskets off of them.  The Ducks force 16 turnovers per game this year.  That makes this a great matchup for Long Beach State, which only turns the ball over 11 times per game while forcing 15 turnovers per game of their own.

This game has special meaning for Long Beach State head coach, Dan Monson.  His father, Don Monson, coached at Oregon from 1984-92.  There's no question he will have his team ready to go for this one as he tries to beat his father's former school.

Long Beach State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after having lost two of its last three games coming in.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games coming in.  The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.  Roll with Long Beach State Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Miami Heat -3

The Miami Heat come in playing some of their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their last three games with a 3-point home win over Memphis, a 12-point road win at Atlanta and a 6-point road win at Brooklyn.

The Heat have done an excellent job of protecting their home court this year as they are 11-4 in home games.  The Raptors are also playing well, winning four of their last six, but all four victories have come at home during this stretch.

The Raptors have lost two straight road games coming in with a 16-point loss at Indiana and a 10-point loss in overtime at Charlotte last night.  The Raptors will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after that OT game, plus its their 4th game in 6 days.  This team is short-handed as it is right now as they are missing two starters in center Jonas Valanciunas and DeMarre Carroll.

Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 5-1 straight up in the last six meetings.  Miami has gone 17-2 SU in its last 19 meetings with Toronto with all 17 wins coming by 3 points or more.  In fact, a whopping 16 of those wins came by 5 points or more.  Miami has also won 11 of its last 12 home meetings with Toronto.  Take the Heat Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -3.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value tonight as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Detroit Pistons.  They are playing great coming in, and the home team has dominated this series between these two teams as well.

The Bulls have won four straight games coming in with victories over the Clippers, Pelicans, 76ers and Grizzlies.  The last two have come via blowout by 19 and 13 points.  Look for them to continue their solid play tonight against the Pistons and improve upon their 11-3 home record.

The Pistons are also playing well, having won three of their last four.  But two of those wins came at home, and the one road victory was against the lowly 76ers.  The Pistons are just 5-8 SU & 5-8 ATS in road games this season, scoring 95.3 points per game and shooting 40.9% away from home.  Things won't get any easier against the Bulls, who allow 93.8 points on 40.8% shooting at home.

Home-court advantage has meant everything in this series in recent meetings.  Indeed, the home team is a perfect 6-0 straight up in the last six meetings with all six wins coming by 4 points or more.  The Bulls have won their last three home meetings with the Pistons by 6, 11 and 8 points, respectively.

Chicago lost 94-98 in overtime at Detroit in their first and only meeting this season.  That plays right into the Bulls' hands considering they are 55-35 ATS in their last 90 games revenging a loss.  The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Detroit is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Bulls Friday.

20* Bucs/Rams NFL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay +3

The oddsmakers are essentially saying that these are two evenly-matched teams considering home-field advantage is worth 2.5 to 3 points in the NFL. I don’t believe that’s even close to being the case as the Buccaneers are far and away the better team. But since the Bucs lost last week and the Rams won, the betting public is quick to back the Rams. That has created some nice line value to swoop in and grab the Bucs plus the points.

Tampa Bay sits at 6-7 on the season with still an outside shot to make the playoffs. It will be laying it all on the line in this one to get a win to try and stay alive. St. Louis was eliminated from playoff contention when it lost five straight games prior to a win over the Lions last week. But that was a hangover spot for the Lions, who had their three-game winning streak snapped the previous week against the Packers, who won on a last-second hail mary. The Lions didn’t even show up against the Rams.

The numbers show that the Bucs are the superior team. They rank 10th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 22.7 yards per game. The Rams rank 28th in yardage differential, getting outgained by 56.4 yards per game. The Rams have been outgained in eight of their 12 games this year, while the Bucs have outgained nine of their 12 opponents.

In fact, the Bucs have outgained nine of their last 11 opponents, which is the sign of a good team. The Rams have been outgained in five straight while losing five of their last six. They have been outgained by an average of 129.2 yards per game in their last five contests. The Bucs average 6.0 yards per play on offense and give up 5.3 yards per play on defense. The Rams average 5.3 yards per play on offense and give up 5.5 yards per play on defense.

The Rams rank 31st in the NFL in total offense at 297.9 yards per game and 31st in scoring offense at 16.2 points per game. The key to stopping the Rams’ offense is stopping Todd Gurley and the running game, and the Bucs are well-equipped to do just that. The Bucs rank 8th in the NFL against the run at 94.1 yards per game allowed. They are also 2nd in the NFL in allowing just 3.4 yards per carry. This is simply a great matchup for them.

The Buccaneers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. The Rams are 18-37 ATS in their last 55 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last six Thursday games. Tampa Bay is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. The Bucs are also 5-1 straight up following a loss in all games this season, so they have been resilient. The underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Bet the Bucs Thursday.

15* Thunder/Cavs TNT Thursday No-Brainer on UNDER 205

Look for a defensive battle tonight in this high-profile game between Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers against Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder.  This contest will be nationally televised on TNT tonight, which means the defense from both teams will be turned up a notch.

These are two of the better defensive teams in the NBA as the Cavs rank 8th in defensive efficiency, while the Thunder rank 10th.  Both teams have really been locking in defensively here of late.

The Thunder have allowed 98 or fewer points in seven straight games, and 99 or less in 10 of their last 11.  To no surprise, the UNDER is 10-1 in their last 11 games overall.  The Cavs have allowed 100 or less in seven of their last eight games.  The UNDER is 6-2 in their last eight contests.

The UNDER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these teams.  Cleveland is 11-2 to the UNDER after allowing 90 points or less in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Oklahoma City is 11-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Thunder are 11-0 UNDER after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games this season.  OKC is 8-0 UNDER vs. teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game this season.  These last three trends combine for a 30-0 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Marshall +20.5

The Marshall Thundering Herd are simply catching too many points tonight against the West Virginia Mountaineers in this in-state showdown.  We'll gladly take the 20.5 points in what will be a closer game than the oddsmakers expect.

That was certainly the case last year when Marshall nearly upset West Virginia in a 66-69 loss as 17.5-point underdogs.  This has been a very closely-contested series.  In fact, each of the last 18 meetings have been decided by 16 points or less dating back to 1998.  That's an 18-0 system backing the Thundering Herd when you factor in this 20.5-point spread.  A whopping 14 of those 18 meetings were decided by 10 points or fewer as well.

After an 0-6 start, the Thundering Herd have been playing up to their capabilities here of late with three straight wins by 6, 24 and 19 points coming in.  They are a group that is used to playing at a frantic pace under second-year head coach Dan D'Antoni, the brother of Mike D'Antoni.  West Virginia is a pressing team that likes to force opponents to play faster, and that plays right into Marshall's hands.  Roll with Marshall Thursday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on 76ers/Hawks UNDER 199.5

Both of these teams have been profitable UNDER bets this season.  The Hawks are 16-10 to the UNDER, while the 76ers are 14-12 to the UNDER.  The UNDER is 9-5 in Hawks' 14 home games, while the UNDER is 10-5 in 76ers' 15 road games.

The Hawks have taken a big step back offensively this season, while the 76ers rank 30th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 91.4 points per 100 possessions.  Atlanta plays at the 19th-fastest pace in the NBA this season and will control the tempo playing at home.

The recent head-to-head history tells the story in this one.  The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings, and we've seen 198 or fewer combined points in all five.  We've seen 176, 176, 192, 174 and 198 combined points in the last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 183.2 combined points per game, which is roughly 16 points less than tonight's posted total of 199.5.

Atlanta is 7-0 to the UNDER after two straight games where opponent was called for 18 or less fouls this season.  Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (ATLANTA) - after a loss by 10 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 90-37 (70.9%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Hawks last seven games overall.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +9.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are simply catching too many points tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  Asking the Thunder to beat them by double-digits to cover this spread is simply asking too much.

The Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  You have to go all the way back to November 30 to find the last time they lost a game by more than 5 points, which is a span of eight games since.  They have won road games at Minnesota and Phoenix during this span, with a 2-point loss to the Bucks and a 5-point loss to the Cavs as well.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season as they are just 9-14 ATS.  They have won five in a row, but only two of their last seven games have they won by double-digits.  The Blazers actually won three of four meetings with the Thunder last year.

In fact, the Blazers have lost by double-digits to the Thunder just once in the last eight meetings.  They have won five of those meetings outright.  The Thunder are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games playing on 2 days rest.  Oklahoma City is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games.  The Blazers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Bet the Blazers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Heat/Nets UNDER 191.5

The Miami Heat have been the best UNDER bet in the NBA this season.  They have gone 18-5 to the UNDER in their 23 games this year.  The Nets haven't been too shabby themselves, going 15-9 to the UNDER in their 24 games.

The Heat rank 2nd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 96.5 points per 100 possessions.  Only the Spurs have been better.  Both teams have struggled on the other end of the floor.  The Nets rank 29th in offensive efficiency, while the Heat rank 18th.  The Heat rank 26th in pace with the Nets checking in at 15th.

This has been a very low-scoring series as four of the last five meetings have seen 190 or fewer combined points.  They've combined for 202, 172, 186, 178 and 190 points in their last five meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 185.6 combined points per game, which is roughly six points less than this posted total of 191.5.

The UNDER is 36-15 in Heat's last 51 road games, including a perfect 8-0 this season.  The Heat and they're opponents are combining for an average of just 182.2 points per game on the road this year.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Nets last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Magic UNDER 198

The Charlotte Hornets and Orland Magic are two of the most improved defensive teams in the NBA this season.  The Hornets rank 6th in defensive efficiency, while the Magic check in at 7th in the first year under head coach Scott Skiles, who has always been a defensive guy.

While the Hornets have been solid offensively this year, the Magic check in at 21st in offensive efficiency.  Both teams like to play at slow paces, too.  The Hornets are 17th in pace while the Magic are 18th.  Look for an ugly, defensive battle tonight when these two teams get together.

That has been the case in recent meetings.  The Hornets and Magic have combined for 181, 188 and 196 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 188.3 combined points per game, which is roughly 10 points less than this posted total of 198.

The UNDER is 12-2-2 in Hornets last 16 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 19-7-1 in Hornets last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Magic's last eight vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Nets last four vs. NBA Southeast Division foes.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Richmond -3.5

I really like this Richmond team that returned four starters from last year.  The Spiders have gotten off to a 6-3 start this season with two of their losses coming on the road to WVU and Florida.  They have beaten the likes of Wake Forest (by 9), California (by 4) and Northern Iowa (by 15), so they have certainly played a gauntlet of a schedule.

The Old Dominion Monarchs have gone just 4-5 this season.  They have played some tough teams as well, but they certainly haven't played a tougher schedule than Richmond.  The Monarchs have really struggled on the road, going 0-5 in all road games while getting outscored by 8.8 points per game.  They are scoring just 56.4 points per game on 36.8% shooting on the road.  To compare, the Spiders are scoring 86.2 points and shooting 51.5% at home.

The one thing that stands out to me is that Richmond simply does not lose to Old Dominion at home.  It is a perfect 9-0 in its last nine home meetings with ODU, which dates all the way back to 1998.  With a spread of only 3.5, the Spiders essentially just have to win this game to cover.  That shouldn't be a problem.

Old Dominion is 0-7 ATS in road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage from 60% to 80% over the last two seasons.  Old Dominion is 0-8 ATS in road games versus teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years.  Take Richmond Wednesday.

20* Cavs/Celtics NBA Tuesday No-Brainer on Boston +1.5

The Boston Celtics want revenge on the Cleveland Cavaliers after getting swept in four games in the playoffs last year.  They did play the Cavs tough in the final three games of that series, losing all three games by exactly 8 points.  Now the Celtics are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season and fully capable of pulling off the upset.

The Celtics are 14-10 on the season, outscoring teams by an average of 5.0 points per game.  The improvement they've made this year is due to their defense.  The Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.

While the Cavaliers are 10-1 at home this season, they have been extremely vulnerable on the road.  Indeed, the Cavs are 5-6 straight up and 4-7 ATS in road games this season.  Lebron James, J.R. Smith and Matthew Dellavedova are on on the injury report right now with various injuries, though all three are expected to play.  Kyrie Irving remains on the shelf.

Cleveland is 1-11 ATS in road games after scoring 105 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons. The Cavaliers are 1-9 ATS off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Celtics are 38-22 ATS as an underdog over the last two years.  The Celtics are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Boston is 34-16-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a win.  Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Drexel +17.5

The Drexel Dragons are undervalued right now due to their 1-6 start to the season.  At the same time, the South Carolina Gamecocks are overvalued due to their 8-0 start this season.  This has created the perfect storm and an inflated line that we'll take advantage of here.

The Dragons aren't nearly as poor as their record.  This is a team that returned four starters from last year.  But the Dragons have lost some close games this season as five of their six losses have come by 9 points or less, including a 1-point loss at St. Joe's and a 3-point loss to San Diego.

But this team is playing much better coming in, and they're coming off their best performance of the season.  They went on the road and beat a quality LaSalle team 66-53 as 7.5-point underdogs, covering the spread by 20.5 points.  I look for them to build off that win and to give South Carolina a run for its money tonight.

The Gamecocks have benefited from playing about as easy of a schedule as you could find.  Their eight wins have come against Norfolk State, Oral Robers, DePaul, Hofstra, Tulsa, Lipscomb, Western Carolina and South Florida.  They have yet to play a true road game this season.  Seven of their eight wins have come by 18 points or less, too.

Both teams are playing with 9 days rest in between games, but the Gamecocks are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games when playing with 7 or more days rest.  Head coach Frank Martin is a general-type coach, and these Gamecock players probably haven't enjoyed the last nine days of practice time.  South Carolina is 0-6 ATS in home games on Tuesday nights over the last three seasons.  The Dragons are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Gamecocks are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Take Drexel Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Dallas Mavericks -3.5

Having lost two straight games to Atlanta and Washington by a combined 6 points, the Dallas Mavericks are going to be highly motivated for a win today to avoid going 0-3 on this 3-game home stand.  They had gone on the road and beaten Washington and New York in their previous two games.

The Mavericks are not only going to be the more motivated team, they are going to be the fresher one as well.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days here.  They have won their last two meetings with the Suns, including a 111-95 road win in their only meeting this season on October 28.

The Suns are in a much tougher spot.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after their 108-101 home win over the Timberwolves Sunday.  The Suns will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days and their 9th game in 14 days, which is one of the toughest situations in the NBA.  I don't expect the Suns to be able to match the Mavericks' energy level tonight.

Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PHOENIX) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 110 points or more are 69-32 (68.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Suns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win.  Phoenix is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS loss.  Roll with the Mavericks Monday.

20* Giants/Dolphins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on New York -1

The Giants are a better team than their 5-7 record would suggest. They have blown four double-digit leads this season to lose games. It happened again last week against the Jets. However, the mindset of this team is till very good as they are tied for the NFC East lead despite their poor record. Even Tom Coughlin was doing jumping jacks in front of his team earlier this week to try and energize them given their favorable situation.

The Dolphins are all but eliminated from the playoffs. They have a much tougher road, and even if they win out to get to 9-7, they know it’s probably still not going to be enough. But this team has looked like they’ve packed it in for quite some time now, so the possibility of winning out is slim to none. Sure, they have a couple wins here recently, but their play has been awful and they were fortunate to win both games.

The Dolphins are 2-4 in their last six games, and they’ve been outgained in all six games while getting outscored by 11.7 points per game and outgained by 124.5 yards per game. They lost 7-36 to the Patriots and were outgained by 167 yards, they lost 17-33 to the Bills and were outgained by 23 yards, they won 20-19 at Philadelphia despite getting outgained by 147 yards, they lost 14-24 to Dallas while getting outgained by 176 yards, they lost 20-38 to the Jets and got outgained by 78 yards, and then they won 15-13 last week against the Ravens despite getting outgained by 156 yards.

Miami’s offense managed just eight first downs and 219 total yards against the Ravens last week. This offense has averaged just 15.5 points and 286.3 yards per game over their last six games. The defense has been awful ever since losing top pass rusher Cameron Wake to a season-ending Achilles injury. The Dolphins are giving up 27.2 points and 410.8 yards per game over their last six games.

You look at the losses by the Giants this season and it’s easy to see that they are better than their 5-7 record. Six of their seven losses have come by 6 points or less. They held 4th quarter leads in all five of their losses to the Cowboys (by 1), Falcons (by 4), Saints (by 3), Patriots (by 1) and Jets (by 3). I think they will be up enough on Miami that a comeback isn’t going to be possible for the Dolphins with the way they are playing right now.  Look for finishing to be the message by Coughlin this week, and for the Giants to execute down the stretch of this game to pull out the win.

The Giants are 5-1 straight up in their last six meetings with the Dolphins, and they have never lost in three visits to Miami. Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight December games. The Dolphins are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 home games after a win by 3 points or less. Miami is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games overall. The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last six Monday games. The Dolphins are 13-39-1 ATS in their last 53 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Bet the Giants Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic -2.5

The Orlando Magic are hungry for a victory after losing two straight to Phoenix and Cleveland coming in to fall to 12-11 on the season.  They have now had two days off since that loss to the Cavaliers on Friday to fix their problems, and I look for them to come back with a great effort tonight against the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

The Magic are clearly one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  First-year head coach Scott Skiles has his players buying in to playing defense, and it is showing in the early going.  The Magic rank 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions allowed.

The Nets are one of the worst teams in the NBA this season at 7-16.  They rank 20th in defensive efficiency, giving up 103.2 points per 100 possessions.  They are 27th in offensive efficiency, scoring just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  They are getting outscored by 5.6 points per 100 possessions, while the Magic are outscoring teams by 0.1 points per 100 possessions.

Orlando is 11-2 ATS off two straight games being called for 5-plus more fouls than its opponent over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Magic are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take the Magic Monday.

15* Patriots/Texans NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on New England -3

I can’t see any way the Patriots lose their third straight game this week when you consider they haven't had a 3-game losing streak in 13 years.  They shouldn’t have lost their last two as they were in control of both games before uncharacteristically not being able to finish the deal. But those two losses have the Patriots undervalued here because without them, they would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 7-point favorite if they were 12-0 instead of 10-2.

Two weeks ago, the Patriots held a 21-17 lead over the Broncos with 6 minutes to play before fumbling a punt and giving them great field position. They eventually lost that game in overtime. Then last week, the Patriots led the Eagles 14-0 and were seemingly in control. But then they had a blocked punt returned for a TD, a 99-yard interception returned for a TD, and gave up an 83-yard punt return TD to the Eagles. They actually outgained the Eagles by 179 yards in that game, but they could not overcome those three non-offensive touchdowns given up.

You can bet that Bill Belichick will have his players’ attention this week. I look for them to respond in a big way as Belichick is one of my favorite coaches to back off a loss. Belichick is 42-23 ATS off one or more consecutive losses as the coach of New England. Belichick is also 15-5 ATS in road games off an upset loss as the coach of the Patriots. Finally, Belichick is 25-12 ATS after allowing 30 points or more as the coach of New England.

Yes, the Texans have won four of their last five games coming in, but it’s come mostly against suspect competition. They did have a good road win over the Bengals, but their three home wins during this stretch have come against Tennessee without Marcus Mariota, the Jets and the struggling Saints. They lost 21-30 on the road to the Buffalo Bills last week, and now they have to face a pissed-off opponent in the Patriots.

The numbers show that the Patriots are far and away the superior team, especially offensively. They average 6.2 yards per play on offense against teams that give up 5.7 per play. Houston only averages 5.2 yards per play on offense against teams that give up 5.7. New England allows 5.4 yards per play defensively against teams that average 5.7. Houston is just behind at 5.5 per play allowed against teams that average 5.7.

Houston head coach Bill O'Brien was the former offensive coordinator of the Patriots.  Houston QB Brian Hoyer was also a former backup to Tom Brady.  So, Belichick and company are very familiar with these two.  They know the tendencies of an O'Brien-coached offense, and they certainly know Hoyer's tendencies.  Also, Houston defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel was behind three Super Bowl-winning defenses in New England.  Look for the Patriots to use the knowledge they have against the Texans, who had some bad news this week when J.J. Watt broke his hand in practice.

The Patriots have obviously had some injuries set them back a little here of late.  But only Julian Edelman has been ruled out, and it's possible that several key players return this week, including LB Dont'a Hightower, S Patrick Chung, and TE Rob Gronkowski.  WR Danny Amendola and TE Scott Chandler are expected to play.  Even with the injuries, it's not like the Patriots are broken.  They scored 24 points against the top-ranked Broncos defense and they put up 28 points and 427 total yards against the Eagles.

New England is 5-1 all-time against Houston with its only loss coming back in 2010 when it rested its starters in Week 16 with a first-round bye already locked up. So we can throw out that game because the Patriots weren’t trying. In their five wins over the Texans during this stretch, the Patriots have outscored them by an average of 16.0 points per game.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ENGLAND) – after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 72-34 (67.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. After failing to cover the spread in three straight games, New England is finally back to being undervalued here.  The Patriots are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss. The Patriots are 72-34-2 ATS in their last 108 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Take the Patriots Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Timberwolves/Suns UNDER 211.5

Defensive anchor Tyson Chandler is expected to return to the lineup today for the Phoenix Suns.  He has missed the past eight games due to injury.  Alex Len has played well in his place, averaging 15.0 points and 8.8 boards over his last four games.  But having Chandler back makes Phoenix a much better defensive team.

I believe this total has been inflated because Minnesota has gone over the total in four straight games.  But the last two have gone to overtime.  The Timberwolves were tied 100-100 with the Nuggets at the end of regulation in their last game before losing 108-111, going over the 202-point total.

The last five meetings in Phoenix between these teams have all gone UNDER this 211.5-point total as they've combined for 203, 209, 211, 203 and 167 points in those five.  That's an average of 198.6 combined points per game, which is roughly 13 points less than this 211.5-point total.

Minnesota is 17-4 UNDER after a road games where both teams score 100 points or more over the last two seasons. Phoenix is 27-12 UNDER after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last three years.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Phoenix.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska -1

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been a tremendous home team and an awful road team under current head coach Tim Miles.  Getting them as only 1-point home favorites over Rhode Island today is an absolute gift from oddsmakers.

Nebraska has gone 5-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average of 19.3 points per game.  The Huskers' only home loss came by a final of 72-77 to Miami as 5.5-point dogs.  The Hurricanes are one of the best teams in the country.  The Huskers are 6-4 this season with their four losses all coming to very good teams in Villanova, Cincinnati, Miami and Creighton.

Rhode Island is off to a 6-3 start this year, but its six wins have come against American, Cleveland State, TCU, Rider, Holy Cross and Houston.  The Rams were a promising team this year until E.C. Matthews suffered a season-ending knee injury.  He was their best player last year, averaging 16.9 points and 4.6 rebounds per game.  Without him, this is just a slightly above-average team.

Rhode Island is 1-9 ATS when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Nebraska is 49-31 ATS in its last 80 home games off a road loss.  Miles is 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less as the coach of Nebraska.  Miles is 11-2 ATS at home when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of Nebraska.  Roll with Nebraska Sunday.

25* AFC West GAME OF THE YEAR on San Diego Chargers +10

I have been backing the Chiefs with a ton of success here of late. They have gone 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall, and I’ve been on them in four of those games. But I know when it’s time to jump off the bandwagon, and this is clearly the week.

The Chiefs haven’t been more than a 4.5-point favorite in any of their six games during this winning streak, but now they’re all of a sudden a 10-point favorite. They have only been more than a 4.5-point favorite once, and that was in a 17-18 home loss as 9-point favorites to the Bears.  This artificial line inflation is necessary for oddsmakers to try and even out the action. They know the betting public is going to be quick to back the Chiefs again, so they purposely set this line higher than it should be to try and get some money on the Chargers to even out the action.

But this is way too many points, especially for a rivalry game in which the Chargers are going to show up for. For starters, they want revenge from a 33-3 home loss to the Chiefs three weeks ago. Secondly, the Chiefs have tried to spoil the Chargers season each of the last two years, and they did so with success last year. But now it’s the Chargers turn to return the favor, and there’s no question they are going to show up this week.

Fans in San Diego are awful, which is why the Chargers have had no home-field advantage this season. The fans know they are likely moving to Los Angeles. But when these San Diego players get to go on the road, it’s kind of a breathe of fresh air to get away from all the craziness at home. They have played some very good football on the road this season.

Yes, the Chargers are only 1-4 on the road this season, but they’ve only been blown out once. They only lost by 5 at Cincinnati, by 7 at Green Bay, and by 3 at Baltimore. In their last road game, the Chargers won 31-25 over the Jaguars as 5-point dogs. I look for them to come through with another great effort on the road and to easily stay within this 10-point margin.  They had the ball late with a chance to win at Cincinnati, and they also had the ball down inside Green Bay's 5-yard line with a chance to force OT late.

The Chiefs have been fortunate to win their last two games. They trailed the Bills 16-7 before outscoring them 23-6 the rest of the way and winning 30-22 at home. They were actually outgained by the Bills in that game. Then, last week, the Raiders gift-wrapped the win for the Chiefs. The Raiders led that game 20-14 before a costly interception deep in KC territory that was nearly returned for a TD. The Chiefs went on to score 20 points over the final 11:17 thanks to Raiders turnovers to win 34-20. But the Chiefs were outgained 232-361 by the Raiders, or by 129 total yards.

The Chargers have outgained the Chiefs in 13 of their last 16 meetings while going 11-5 straight up during that span. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) – a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a winning percentage of 25% or less, after 8+ games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss at home. San Diego is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Falcons +7.5

The Carolina Panthers have become a huge public team now with their 12-0 start that has included a 9-3 ATS record. The public is going to continue to back them, and oddsmakers know this, which is why they are forced to tack on a few more points than there should be. That was the case last week as the Panthers were 7-point favorites over the Saints and failed to cover as they won 41-38. It’s the case again this week.

Meanwhile, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Falcons right now because they have lost five straight coming in. So it’s really the perfect storm here. Asking the Panthers to win by 8-plus points to cover this spread is asking too much this week. They are one of the most overvalued teams in the NFL right now.

The Panthers have pretty much locked up a first-round bye already, so it’s inevitable that they are going to be taking their foot off the gas in the coming weeks. They already did last week but got away with it, beating an awful Saints team 41-38. They got away with it because the Saints have a record-setting poor defense.

The Atlanta Falcons are desperate for a win and will be laying it all on the line Sunday to try and turn their season around. They have lost five straight and six of their last seven coming in. But they easily could have won all seven of those games, they just aren’t getting it done late. All six losses came by 10 points or less, including four by 4 points or fewer. So the Falcons really haven’t been blown out all season, which is what it’s going to take for the Panthers to cover this spread.  I don't expect that to happen with how much fight the Falcons will be playing with this week.

The numbers actually indicate that this is a very evenly-matched game, and that the Falcons are still one of the best teams in the NFL. They rank 6th in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 44.2 yards per game on the season. That’s only one spot behind the 5th-place Panthers (+46.8 yards/game). The offense isn’t broken as the Falcons rank 5th at 386.7 yards per game. The defense is also vastly improved this year, ranking 16th at 342.5 yards per game.

The Falcons have gone 0-8 ATS in their last eight games overall. That’s almost unheard of in the NFL, and there’s no question that streak has them undervalued right now. There’s also no question that that streak isn’t going to last a whole lot longer. In fact, there is a great system supporting this play that involves backing teams who have been beaten by the spread by a ton of points in recent games.

Plays on any team (ATLANTA) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 25-2 (92.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Also, plays on road teams (ATLANTA) – after 5 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in the second half of the season are 24-6 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The road team has won three straight meetings in this series, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Take the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee Titans +7.5

Because the Jets are in the playoff hunt, they are overvalued right now. Because the Titans are out of the playoff hunt, they are undervalued. Contrary to popular belief, teams don’t just pack it in when they’re out of the playoff hunt. The Titans have showed up every week this season, and I look that to continue this week as they give the Jets a run for their money as 7.5-point road underdogs.

Tennessee is a much better team than its 3-9 record would indicate, but it has had some poor fortune in close games this year. Five of its nine losses have come by 6 points or less. That includes a 2-point loss to Indianapolis, a 1-point loss to Buffalo, a 3-point loss to Atlanta, a 6-point loss to Jacksonville and a 3-point loss to Oakland.

But the Titans were finally rewarded with a win last week while thoroughly outplaying the Jaguars despite only beating them 42-39. They racked up 467 total yards while limiting the Jaguars to 383, outgaining them by 84 yards. Marcus Mariota had a great game, throwing for 268 yards and three touchdowns, while also rushing for 112 yards and a score in the win.

New York hasn’t exactly been playing well enough here of late to warrant being a 7.5-point favorite. It has gone 3-4 in its last seven games overall with only one win by more than this 7-point spread, which was a 38-20 win over struggling Miami. The Jets only beat the Jaguars by 5 and the Giants by 3 for their other two wins. They were outgained by 146 yards by the Jaguars, and they needed to erase a 10-point 4th quarter deficit to beat the Giants.

While Mariota is only going to continue to get better to help out this offense, it’s the defense that makes the Titans so underrated. They rank 8th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 336.1 yards per game. They are 9th in the NFL against the pass at 230.6 yards per game. That’s key because the Jets have had to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick more than they’d like of late. They’ve been held to 90 or fewer rushing yards in five of their last seven games.

The Titans have actually played their best football on the road this season. Two of their three wins have come away from home. They’ve been especially stout defensively in road games, giving up 21.8 points and 308.2 yards per game. Their offense has also held up its end of the bargain in road games, averaging 21.8 points and 340.8 yards per game. They are outgaining teams by 32.6 yards per game on the road this season.

Plays against favorites of of 3.5 to 10 points (NY JETS) – a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a team with a winning percentage of 25% or worse, after 8+ games are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. These marginal winning teams are time and time again overvalued against teams with poor records this late in the season. That is the case in this game as I see it. Tennessee is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 road games off a win against a division opponent.  Also, the Jets are trying to win their 3rd straight game overall, and they haven't won three straight since 2011.  Bet the Titans Sunday.

15* Steelers/Bengals AFC North ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3

The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be out for revenge on the Cincinnati Bengals. They had them beat in the first meeting, leading 10-6 entering the fourth quarter. But they were outscored 10-0 in the final period. It was Ben Roethlisberger’s first game back from injury after a 4-game absence, and he was rusty, throwing three interceptions in the loss. The Steelers still outgained the Bengals 356-296, or by 60 total yards, and should have won.

Roethlisberger is now healthy and hitting on all cylinders. His four games since have been out of this world. He threw for 334 yards and two touchdowns in a 38-35 win over the Raiders, 379 yards and three touchdowns in a 30-9 win over the Browns, 456 yards and a touchdown in a 30-39 loss to the Seahawks, and 364 yards and four touchdowns in a 45-10 win over the Colts, respectively. He has averaged 383.3 passing yards per game and 10 touchdowns while helping the Steelers to averages of 35.8 points and 529.0 total yards per game in their last four.

The Bengals are not equipped to stop Roethlisberger right now due to the state of their secondary. Starting cornerback Adam Jones has been ruled out with a foot injury that he played through the last two weeks, but cannot any longer. Also, CBs Leon Hall (back) and Josh Shaw (head) are questionable, while starting safety George Iloka (groin) is doubtful.. Fellow CB Darqueze Denard is already on injured reserve.  To say they are short-handed right now would be a massive understatement.

Pittsburgh ranks 7th in the NFL in giving up just 20.0 points per game. This is a bend but don’t break defense that stiffens up in the red zone. Andy Dalton and company have struggled against this defense. In fact, the Steelers have held the Bengals to 21 or fewer points in 12 straight meetings. The Bengals have averaged just 16.2 points per game in those 12 meetings. They held the Bengals to 16 points and 296 total yards in the first meeting this year while intercepting Dalton twice. The Steelers have gone 8-3 SU & 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in this series overall.

While Roethlisberger is primed for a big game against this depleted Cincinnati secondary, look for the running game to also be a huge difference in why the Steelers get revenge in the rematch. DeAngelo Williams hasn’t missed a beat in replacing Le’Veon Bell. He has rushed for 387 yards and added 189 receiving yards over the past four games.  The Steelers average 123 rushing yards per game and 4.9 per carry on the season. The Bengals are not great against the run as they give up 4.5 yards per rush.

Pittsburgh is 8-1 ATS vs. teams with winning records in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. teams with winning records overall. Pittsburgh is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Steelers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight December games. Pittsburgh is 13-2-1 ATS in its last 16 trips to Cincinnati.  Roll with the Steelers Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Bucks UNDER 207

Both the Warriors and Bucks will be fatigued tonight after playing Friday as this will be the 2nd of a back-to-back for both teams.  That's especially the case for the Warriors, who played a double-overtime thriller against the Celtics last night.  Neither team will be looking to push the pace in this one as that fatigue affects their offense more than their defense.

Things will be very tough for the Bucks, who rank 22nd in the league in offensive efficiency.  The Warriors rank 5th in the league in defensive efficiency.  Milwaukee will control the pace tonight playing at home and will slow it down to a snail's pace.  The Bucks rank 29th in the NBA in pace, averaging 95.3 possessions per game.

The Bucks have scored 95 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games overall.  They have been pretty good defensively, though, giving up 95 or fewer points in six of their last eight games overall.  The two meetings between these teams last year saw 195 and 203 combined points.

Golden State is 30-16 to the UNDER after allowing 110 points or more over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 20-6 in Bucks last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 13-4 in Bucks last 17 Saturday games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in this series.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Celtics/Hornets UNDER 203

Both of these teams played last night and will be fatigued tonight.  Especially the Celtics, who went to double-overtime against the Warriors.  That fatigue will show up more on the offensive end as neither team looks to push the pace often, and both will struggle shooting the ball as well.

These are two of the better defensive teams in the conference.  Boston ranks 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, while Charlotte ranked 6th in efficiency.  Boston allows 43.3% shooting this year while Charlotte allows 43.8% shooting.

Boston is 10-0 UNDER in road games off a loss by 6 points or less over the last two seasons.  Charlotte is 28-12 UNDER as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last three years.  The UNDER is 12-3-2 in Hornets last 17 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Charlotte.   Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on UNDER 53

Nothing is certain but death, taxes and Army/Navy going UNDER the total.  The UNDER is 9-0 in the last nine meetings between these teams.  Once again, the oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this 2015 meeting with this 53-point total.  This line is going to continue to drop, so make sure and get your bet in early.

Not only have Army and Navy gone UNDER the total in nine straight, they have finished with 48 or fewer combined points in all nine meetings as well.  They combined for 27 last year with a 55.5-point total.  They have averaged a combined 36.6 points per game in their last nine meetings.  That's nearly 17 points less than this 53-point total.

Numbers can be thrown out the window when these two teams play one another.  That's because it's a rivalry game, and both teams know each other like the back of their hands.  They both run the triple-option, so the defenses are used to it having practiced against their offenses on a daily basis.  There is no trickery when these teams get together.  It's simply who wants it more.

Obviously, when you know two teams are going to run the football almost every play, the clock is going to keep moving without incompletions.  Army averages 4 completions and 8 passing attempts per game, Navy averages 4 completions and 8 attempts per game.  Army runs the ball 52 times per game, Navy runs the ball 58 times per game.

Navy is very good against the run, allowing just 139 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry against teams that average 193 yards per game and 4.5 per carry.  Army has been better against the run than the pass.  It allows 163 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry against teams that average 156 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

Another key here is that Navy is expected to win in a blowout as the line for this game is Navy -22.  So, if Navy gets up big, it's not going to try and run up the scoreboard.  Look the Midshipmen to really slow down the pace of their offense once they get a substantial lead.

Both teams went UNDER the total when they faced another Academy school in Air Force, which also runs the triple-option.  Navy beat Air Force 33-11 for 44 combined points with a 49.5-point total on October 3rd.  Army lost to Air Force 20-3 for 27 combined points with a 50.5-point total.

Army is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 9-0 in the last 9 meetings.  Army is 6-0 UNDER in road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last three seasons.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Midshipmen's last five neutral site games.  These four trends combined for a perfect 27-0 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in the Army/Navy game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +13

The Butler Bulldogs are laying a few too many points today to the Tennessee Vols.  This is a Tennessee team that beat Butler 67-55 at home last year and returned four starters from that squad for first-year head coach Rick Barnes.

The Vols are just 4-3 this season, but they really haven't been blown out yet as their three losses came by 2 at Georgia Tech, by 3 on the road to George Washington, and by 11 to Nebraska.  The Vols have not played since November 28th, so they have had a lot of time to prepare for Butler.  They know the Bulldogs inside and out having two weeks to get ready for them.  You can bet they'll be chomping at the bit to get back on thefloor.

Butler has had some lackluster performances this season that would make it hard for me to envision it covering this 13-point spread.  After all, the Bulldogs only beat SIU-Edwardsville by 16 as 29.5-point home favorites, and Indiana State by 14 as 17-point home favorites.  Tennessee is more than capable of staying within 13 and possibly pulling off the upset.

Tennessee is 13-3 ATS versus teams who score 77 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  The Vols are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games overall.  Tennessee is 6-1 ATS off a double-digit home loss.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -2.5

The New Orleans Pelicans are off to a 5-16 start this season.  This start has been largely due to injuries to several key players, but the Pelicans are now finally healthy.  The only player on the injury report not expected to play is Quincy Pondexter.

Look for the Pelicans to be a good bet going forward after this poor start.  They have had three days in between games having last played on Monday.  They have had time to work out their problems in practice these last three days, and I look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season tonight at home against the Washington Wizards.

The Wizards are not healthy, and they are off to a poor start as well.  They are just 9-11 on the season and have lost seven of their last 10 games overall coming in.  They are without two key post players in Drew Gooden and Nene, and Kris Humphries is questionable with an ankle injury.

Plays on home favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games against opponent after 3 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 35-11 (76.1%) ATS since 1996.  New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in Friday night home games over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 11.0 points per game.  The Wizards are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  The Pelicans are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet the Pelicans Friday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Boston Celtics +6

The Boston Celtics are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are off to a 13-9 start, but they've been playing their best here of late.  They are 6-2 straight up in their last eight games overall with one of those losses coming by 3 points at San Antonio as 8.5-point dogs.  They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.

The reason the Celtics have a great chance to end the Warriors' 23-0 start tonight is because they lock down opponents on defense.  Indeed, the Celtics rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.0 points per 100 possessions.  Avery Bradley is one of the best defenders in the NBA, and he's just the type of player that can slow down Stephen Curry.

The Warriors could be short-handed tonight against the Celtics.  They are already without Harrison Barnes, but now they may be without Klay Thompson as well.  He scored 39 points in the their 131-123 win at Indiana last time out, but rolled his ankle and has stated that he's only 70 percent healthy right now.  Thompson would be a big loss because he's shooting 51.9 percent on 3-pointers this year and averaging 25.4 points over his last five games.

Boston has average 108.0 points over the past five games and had eight players finish in double figures in Wednesday's 105-100 win over Chicago.  David Lee returned from a heel injury to score 12 points while adding six rebounds in 18 minutes.  Lee should play a big role against his former team tonight and will be extra motivated.

The Celtics played the Warriors tough in both meetings last year.  They lost 114-111 as 18-point road dogs, and 106-101 as 8.5-point home dogs.  Boston is 13-2 ATS when the total is at least 210 points over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 vs. Western Conference opponents.  Boston is 28-15 ATS in its last 43 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.  The underdog is 22-7 ATS in the last 29 meetings.  Roll with the Celtics Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Cleveland Cavaliers -3

This is one of the rare times that the Cleveland Cavaliers are undervalued as only 3-point favorites over the Orlando Magic tonight.  That's because they are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost at home to the Wizards, in overtime to the Pelicans, and to the Heat without Lebron James.

But they rebounded with a win over the Blazers last time out, and I look for them to build off of that tonight.  I like the fact that the Cavaliers have had two days off in between games having last played on Tuesday to get ready for the Magic tonight.  They are also expected to get back starting guard Iman Shumpert from injury tonight, which will give them a boost.

The Magic, on the other hand, come into this game overvalued after having won six of their last eight games overall.  They have home wins over the Knicks, Bucks, and Celtics, as well as road wins over the T'Wolves, Clippers and Nuggets during this stretch.  But now they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here.

Cleveland has simply owned Orlando.  The Cavs are a perfect 11-0 SU & 10-0-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Magic dating back to 2012.  They have won those 11 games by an average of 14.1 points per game.  Take the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Vikings/Cardinals NFC ANNIHILATOR on Arizona -7.5

UPDATE: I put this pick out at -7.5 Wednesday afternoon.  I realize it has moved all the way up to -11 in some places as of Thursday afternoon.  If you get -10 or more, it would go down to a 15* play instead of a 20*.  Thanks, Jack.

The Arizona Cardinals are the best team in the NFL in my opinion.  They are 10-2 on the season and working on a six-game winning streak.  Even in their two losses they shouldn't have lost.  They outgained St. Louis by 119 yards in a 22-24 home loss, and Pittsburgh by 159 yards in a 13-25 road loss.  The numbers support my statement that this is the NFL's best team.

The Cardinals rank 1st in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 102.7 yards per game.  That's 32 yards per game better than second-place Seattle.  Arizona ranks 1st in the NFL in total offense at 419.5 yards per game, and 4th in total defense at 316.8 yards per game allowed.

Arizona is coming off its most complete game of the season in a 27-3 win at St. Louis.  The offense racked up a season-high 524 yards, while the defense limited the Rams to just nine first downs and 212 total yards.  It outgained the Rams by a whopping 312 yards for the game.  Carson Palmer continued his amazing season with 356 passing yards and two touchdowns, while David Johnson and Kerwynn Williams combined to rush for 158 yards, proving that they don't miss Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson.

Minnesota faced a similar team to Arizona last week in Seattle and was killed 7-38 at home.  The Vikings were held to a season-low 125 total yards while giving up 413, getting outgained by 308 yards by the Seahawks. Minnesota is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL in my opinion.  In spite of its 8-4 record, it ranks just 23rd in yardage differential, getting outgained by 26.5 yards per game.

The Vikings do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Cardinals.  They rank just 30th in the NFL in total offense at 315.8 yards per game.  Teddy Bridgewater has thrown only eight touchdowns against eight interceptions on the season.  When Adrian Peterson doesn't have it going, the Vikings are lost offensively because Bridgewater is a liability.

It's going to be tough sledding again this week for Peterson.  That's because the Cardinals rank 4th in the NFL against the run.  They give up just 89.0 rushing yards per game.  They have held five of their last six opponents to less than 100 rushing yards.  Bridgewater is going to be forced to make more plays this week, and I don't think he's up to the task.

Minnesota's defense is also in shambles right now.  With nose tackle Linval Joseph (foot) out, and linebacker Anthony Barr (groin/hand) and safety Harrison Smith (hamstring/knee) forced to leave the game, Minnesota allowed a season-high 433 total yards - 173 on the ground - against the Seahawks. Those three were among eight Minnesota defensive players whose statuses are uncertain for this contest.  But Joseph, Barr and Smith are all expected to miss this game.

What I really love about this Cardinals team is that they are making a point of finishing strong after last year's collapse, which came without the services of Carson Palmer.  I'd say they made a statement last week against the Rams that they aren't about to let up.

"We're held to a very high standard," said Palmer, second in the NFL with 29 TDs and a 106.3 passer rating. "We're coached extremely hard and we're still shooting for a perfect game ... That hasn't happened yet."

"We're still looking to improve," hard-to-please Cardinals coach Bruce Arians told the team's official website. "I've got to find reasons to holler at them.  There is time to look back on the journey and enjoy it but this isn't it."

Arizona is 50-28 ATS in its last 78 games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  The Cardinals are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games following a win.  Arizona is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 vs. NFC opponents.  Home-field advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-1 straight up in the last nine meetings.  Arizona is 7-0 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  Bet the Cardinals Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Thunder UNDER 212.5

The oddsmakers have set the bar too high in this game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Atlanta Hawks.  We'll take advantage and back the UNDER in what will be a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers and the betting public think.

The Thunder have been great defensively here of late.  They have given up 99 or fewer points in six of their last seven games overall.  I look for that trend to continue here against a Hawks team that has been held to 98 or fewer in eight of their last 13 games overall.  The Hawks have held 10 of their last 12 opponents to 101 points or fewer as well.

Six of the last eight meetings between these teams have seen 206 or fewer combined points.  Five of those have seen 199 or fewer combined points as well.  Based off that recent head-to-head history alone, this total has clearly been set too high tonight.

Plays on the UNDER on home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going under the total by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 33-10 (76.7%) over the last five seasons.

OKC is 7-0 UNDER versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game this season.  The Thunder are 8-1 UNDER vs. poor foul drawing teams who attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this year.  OKC is 7-0 UNDER off two or more consecutive wins this season.  The Thunder are 9-1 UNDER after a game where they made 12 or more 3-point shots over the last two seasons.  These four trends combine for a 31-2 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN2 Rivalry Play on Iowa State -7.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of the best teams in the country.  They are off to a 7-0 start this season and they are one of the most fun teams to watch because they share the ball so well.  They average 18 assists per game, including 21 at home.

They have a ton of balance with five players averaging at least 12.9 points.  Abdel Nader has averaged 16.3 in the past four, and Monte Morris has scored at least 12 in every game while leading the Big 12 with 7.3 assists per game. Jameel McKay is one of two Big 12 players averaging a double-double (13.9 points, 11.6 rebounds).

Iowa State's numbers at both ends of the floor are off the charts.  It is putting up 86.9 points per game and 51.7% shooting against teams that give up 71.7 points and 43.5% shooting.  Defensively, it is giving up 66.6 points per game and 38.3% shooting against teams that average 77.7 points and 44.3% shooting.

Iowa is a quality team from the Big Ten, but it has lost to the two best teams it has faced in Dayton and Notre Dame. This will also be just the second true road game of the season for the Hawkeyes.  They were crushed 75-90 at home by the Cyclones last year, and they don't stand much of a chance of keeping this one close in Ames this time around.

Iowa State is 8-1 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win these teams by an average of 21.3 points per game.  The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  The Cyclones are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Iowa State Thursday.

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT Milwaukee Bucks +5.5

The Milwaukee Bucks are showing solid value as a nice-sized home underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.  After battling through several injuries in the early going, the Bucks are finally getting healthy and starting to play up to their potential.

The Bucks have won back-to-back home games with a 106-91 win over New York and a 90-88 win over Portland.  They had to erase a late deficit to beat the Blazers, and they will be coming into this game with a lot of confidence after that win.  I also like they fact that they are really getting after it defensively.  They have held each of their last six opponents to 42.1% shooting or less.

The Los Angeles Clippers have squeaked out back-to-back wins over Orlando (103-101) and Minnesota (110-106).  Both meetings between these teams were decided by 5 points or less last season with Milwaukee winning 111-106 at home, its fourth win in the last six home meetings with Los Angeles.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 11-2 straight up in the last 13 meetings.  Plays against road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 47-19 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Clippers are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.  Take the Bucks Wednesday.