Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-30-17 | 76ers v. Nuggets OVER 215.5 | 107-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on 76ers/Nuggets OVER 215.5 The 76ers are a much better team with Joel Embiid in the lineup, but they are also a much worse defensive team without him. And that leads me to take the OVER here in this game between the 76ers and Nuggets tonight with Embiid out. The 76ers play at a much faster tempo without him because they don’t have to run their offense through him. They also play little to no defense. These two teams are mirror images of one another for the most part. They both have skilled big men, they both thrive on offense, and they both play little defense. The Nuggets average 111.7 points per game at home this season and give up 105.8 points per game overall. The 76ers are averaging 107.9 point points per game overall and giving up 110.7 points per game on the road. The Nuggets are coming off a 125-128 overtime loss at Minnesota, while the 76ers are coming off a 110-114 loss in Portland. The last time these two teams met up came in Denver last year with the 76ers winning 124-122 for 246 combined points. The OVER is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. The OVER is 4-1 in 76ers last five vs. Western Conference foes. Denver is 16-3 OVER in home games off a division game over the last three seasons. The Nuggets are 10-1 OVER after a combined score of 245 points or more over the last two years. Denver is 32-11 OVER versus poor defensive teams allow 106 or more points per game over the last two seasons. Roll with the OVER in this game Saturday. |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL +6 | 34-24 | Loss | -103 | 83 h 54 m | Show | |
15* Wisconsin/Miami Orange Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Miami +6 No Power 5 team played a softer schedule than Wisconsin this season. The Badgers played in the weak Big Ten West Division and took advantage. That is evident in the fact that they were double-digit favorites in 11 of their 12 regular season games this year. We saw that weak schedule catch up to them in the Big Ten Championship in a 21-27 loss to Ohio State, which is also a team that I think is overrated. But that game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. The Badgers were outgained by 151 yards by the Buckeyes and should have lost by more. Now the Badgers will have to deal with either the first or second-best team they have faced all season in Miami. The Hurricanes went through the gauntlet this season in the ACC, and they also beat Notre Dame 41-8 out of conference. I think they come into this game undervalued due to losing their final two games to Pittsburgh and Clemson on the road after their 10-0 start. I like this matchup for the Hurricanes. Their front seven is loaded with athletes that will be able to slow down Wisconsin’s running game. The Hurricanes only allow 146 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. And they have a ball-hawking secondary, forcing 22 turnovers in their last seven games. That could be a problem for Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook, who has thrown 15 interceptions this year. Wisconsin didn’t handle the most athletic team they’ve seen this season in Ohio State very well. They gave up 449 total yards to the Buckeyes and were held to just 298 total yards themselves. They gave up 238 rushing yards to Ohio State. I have no doubt Miami’s athletes are going to be a problem in this game on both sides of the ball for the slower Badgers. I also question Wisconsin’s motivation in this game. It’s the second straight year that the Badgers have had to play in a second-tier bowl game. Had they beaten Ohio State, they would have made the four-team playoff. After letting that opportunity slip through their grasps, I don’t think they’ll be nearly as motivated to win the Orange Bowl. This is going to be a home game for the Hurricanes being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. That is a huge advantage for their team as this has become a rabid fan base once again now that Mark Richt has put the program back on the map. And Richt has proven to be a quality coach with extra time to prepare, going 10-5 SU & 9-6 ATS in his career in bowl games. "It means a lot," defensive lineman Kendrick Norton said. "Obviously, it's going to be like a home game for us, so we will be comfortable. Miami hasn't been (in the Orange Bowl) for a while, so we have a lot of pride in getting there and doing well.” The Hurricanes went 7-0 at home this season and outscored opponents by 18.0 points per game. Miami is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Hurricanes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. I believe the wrong team is favored in this game. Take Miami Saturday. |
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12-30-17 | Louisiana Tech v. Marshall -2 | Top | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -2 The Marshall Thundering Herd have been one of the most underrated teams in the country since Dan D’Antoni took over a few years ago. They are off to a 10-4 start this season, and they are 27-14 ATS as a favorite over the last three seasons. Marshall is a perfect 9-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.6 points per game on average. Now they face a LA Tech team that is 0-3 in true road games this season. I think we are getting quite the discount here with Marshall as only a 2-point home favorite. LA Tech is 2-10 ATS in Saturday road games over the last three seasons. Marshall is 6-0 ATS off two straight wins by 15 points or more over the last three years. The Thundering Herd are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Marshall Saturday. |
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12-30-17 | Texas A&M v. Alabama +1 | 57-79 | Win | 102 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Alabama +1 The No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies are a good team to fade opening SEC play. They are overvalued due to their 11-1 start. But this isn’t the same team that they were early in the season due to all the injuries and suspensions here of late. That has shown up in their last two games as the Aggies only beat Northern Kentucky by 6 and Buffalo by 16 at home. Now they will be playing just their second true road games of the entire season. And they are missing leading scorer DJ Hogg (14.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) due to a suspension and third-leading scorer Admon Gilder (12.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg) due to a knee injury. Alabama was banged-up early but now is healthy and will be a dangerous team moving forward under Avery Johnson. The Crimson Tide have gone 5-1 at home this season with solid wins over Texas-Arlington, LA Tech and Rhode Island. Texas A&M is 3-11 ATS following an ATS win over the last two seasons. Alabama is 15-4 ATS in its last 19 games after scoring 50 points or fewer. The Crimson Tide are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit home loss. The Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win. Take Alabama Saturday. |
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12-30-17 | Washington v. Penn State -1.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 79 h 35 m | Show |
20* Washington/Penn State Fiesta Bowl No-Brainer on Penn State -1.5 Penn State is good enough to be a playoff team. Their two losses this season came by a combined 4 points to Ohio State and Michigan State both on the road. In fact, they have now lost three games over the past year and a half by a combined 7 points when you factor in their 52-49 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl last year. I would argue that they are the best team in the Big Ten right now. The Nittany Lions are loaded on offense with Trace McSorley, Saquon Barkley and four receivers with 40-plus receptions this season. They average 41.6 points per game. They also have an elite defense that gives up 15.5 points per game. I think the Nittany Lions are the more battle-tested team playing a much tougher schedule in the Big Ten East division. I’m way down on the Pac-12 in these bowl games. I’ve faded several Pac-12 teams with success up to this point. Washington played a very soft schedule this season and isn’t battle-tested. The Huskies lost to both Arizona State and Stanford on the road this season, managing just 7 points and 230 total yards against ASU and 22 points and 315 total yards against Stanford. And that’s the problem for the Huskies and why I don’t trust them. Quarterback Jake Browning has come up short time and time again in big games. He was off the mark against Stanford and ASU this year, and he was overwhelmed against both USC and Alabama last year. He has thrown for only 2,544 yards and 18 touchdowns on the season. McSorley has upped his play in the biggest games with what he did against USC last year and at Ohio State this year on the road, leading the Nittany Lions to 49 and 38 points against those two teams, respectively. He has accounted for 37 total touchdowns this season with 26 passing and 11 rushing. I simply trust McSorley more than Browning at the all-important QB position in what is otherwise a pretty evenly matched game elsewhere on the field. The Nittany Lions are 16-4-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall. They have been extremely undervalued for two straight seasons now. James Franklin is 7-0 ATS off two consecutive wins by 10 points or more over conference opponents as the coach of Penn State. Franklin is 7-0 ATS off a road win as the coach of the Nittany Lions. Franklin is 9-0 ATS off three straight conference wins as the coach of Penn State. Take these three 100% never lost systems straight to the bank today. Bet Penn State Saturday. |
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12-29-17 | USC +8.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 59 h 25 m | Show |
20* USC/Ohio State Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on USC +8.5 This is a classic case of Urban Meyer and Ohio State getting way too much respect in another bowl game. There’s no way this line should be 8.5 or even over a touchdown. It should be close to Ohio State -3, and I wouldn’t be surprised if USC won this game outright. I question the Buckeyes’ motivation a little in this game because they thought they did enough to make the four-team playoff by winning the Big Ten. But a 16-31 home loss to Oklahoma and a 24-55 road loss at Iowa as 18-point favorites did them in, and I 100% agree with the committee they aren’t one of the best four teams in the country. They have to be deflated a little playing in this second-tier bowl game. USC, on the other hand, was never going to make the four-team playoff after losing two games to Washington State and Notre Dame both on the road midseason. But I like the way this team fought back by going 5-0 over their final five games. I think they’re more than happy to be playing in the Cotton Bowl after beating Stanford in the Pac-12 Championship because they were never talked about for the four-team playoff down the stretch. It seemed like every time Ohio State took a step up in class this season they did not play well. They lost to Oklahoma and Iowa as mentioned before. They needed to erase a 19-point deficit at home to beat Penn State 39-38. They trailed Michigan most the way before winning 31-20. And they couldn’t put away Wisconsin in a 27-21 win in the Big Ten Championship. I would argue USC is the best team they have faced since Oklahoma, so I don’t know how oddsmakers can expect them to beat the Trojans by more than a touchdown. USC has played Big Ten teams each of the last three seasons in bowls. They went 2-1 with their only loss coming 21-23 to Wisconsin. They beat Penn State 52-49 last year in the Rose Bowl, the same Penn State team that had beaten Ohio State. They racked up 575 total yards on the Nittany Lions behind 453 passing from Sam Darnold. He’ll be ultra-motivated to put on another lasting impression and improve his draft stock. He threw 14 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions over his final seven games this season. The Buckeyes are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games. Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win. The Buckeyes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. They padded their stats against weak Big Ten teams this year. Now they take a massive step up in class in the Cotton Bowl. Bet USC Friday. |
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12-29-17 | Pacers v. Bulls -2 | Top | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
25* NBA Revenge GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Bulls -2.5 The Chicago Bulls are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut. They are getting contributions from everywhere and continue to be one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA at this point in the season. Now the mission will be to avenge a 96-98 road loss at Indiana the game before this streak started. The Bulls led that game 83-69 entering the fourth quarter, but were outscored 29-13 in the final period. There’s no question they haven’t forgotten that loss and will want to get their revenge at home this time around. I like their chances considering Indiana is likely to be without its best player in Victor Oladipo in this one. Oladipo missed the last game with knee soreness and is doubtful to play tonight. It would be a huge loss for the Pacers as he averages 24.9 points per game and is their emotional leader. The Bulls are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall, 6-0 ATS in their last six home games and 8-0 ATS in their last eight games following a win. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The home team has won 10 of the last 12 meetings and is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings. Take the Bulls Friday. |
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12-29-17 | Northern Illinois +16 v. Iowa | 75-98 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Illinois +16 The Iowa Hawkeyes are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. This is a team that lost by 24 to VA Tech, by 9 to LA Lafayette, but 8 to South Dakota State and by 13 to Indiana among their six losses already this season. But people are quick to forget those awful losses because the Hawkeyes have won four in a row coming into this game, including covering three straight spreads. But those four wins came against Southern University, Drake, Southern Utah and Colorado. It hasn’t exactly been murderer’s row to say the least. Now the Hawkeyes have to face a game Northern Illinois team that hasn’t lost any game by more than 14 points this season. The Huskies covered as 15.5-point underdogs in a 14-point loss at Iowa State, the same Iowa State team that beat Iowa 84-78. Even more impressively, they only lost 70-79 at Marquette as 16.5-point dogs. I think this is a lookahead spot for Iowa to a big showdown with Michigan on January 2nd as they get back into conference play. NIU is 74-46 ATS in its last 120 games as a dog of 10 or more points. The Huskies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games. Roll with Northern Illinois Friday. |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State +1 v. Washington State | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 35 m | Show | |
15* Michigan State/Washington State Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on Michigan State +1 This line is moving toward Michigan State for good reason. Washington State opened as a 4.5-point favorite and now is only a 1-point favorite and even underdogs in some spots. I totally agree with this move as I currently lock in Michigan State as a 1-point underdog in the Holiday Bowl. For starters, Mark Dantonio is 17-4 ATS in his last 21 games as an underdog. I realize the Spartans may not be dogs by the time this game goes off. But it’s still worth noting and just goes to show how he has been one of the most underrated head coaches in the country. He almost always exceeds expectations. That was certainly the case this season as nothing was expected from Michigan State after they went just 3-9 last year. They returned only eight starters from that squad. It was a young team, and Dantonio worked his magic by getting the Spartans to 9-3. Now they have a chance for their fourth 10-win season in the past five years and will be highly motivated to get it. It wasn’t a fluky 9-3, either. Michigan State actually outgained 10 of its 12 opponents this season with he only exceptions both coming on the road at Ohio State and Michigan, and they beat Michigan 14-10 as 13-point dogs. They are outgaining opponents by 80 yards per game on the season. Their defense has been very good, giving up just 298 yards per game. I really question Washington State’s motivation coming into this game. The Cougars had a chance to get to the Pac-12 Championship in their season finale against Washington for a second consecutive season. And for a second straight year, they fell flat on their faces with a 14-41 loss at 9.5-point underdogs. Luke Falk was overwhelmed and played one of the worst games of his career with 3 interceptions. After playing for such high stakes and coming up short, I can’t see the Cougars being all that motivated to play Michigan State here. Now Falk’s job gets even tougher due to the losses of his two best receivers in Tavares Martin Jr. and Isaiah Johnson0Mack, who have both been dismissed from the team heading into the bowl game. These two combined for 130 receptions, 1,386 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns this season. The fact that both aren’t playing helps explain this line move in Michigan State’s favor. Washington State hasn’t fared very well in the three bowl games under Mike Leach over the past four seasons. Despite being favored in all three games, the Cougars have gone just 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS. They lost as 5-point favorites to Colorado State in 2013, barely beat Miami 20-14 as 3-point favorites in 2015, and lost 12-17 to Minnesota as 10-point favorites last year. The Spartans are by far the best bowl team that the Cougars will have faced in the Leach era. The Spartans have been impressive in bowl games over the last six years under Dantonio. They have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS despite being underdogs in all five. They lost to Alabama in the four-team playoff two years ago, but upset Georgia, TCU, Stanford and Baylor in their previous four bowl games. Dantonio is 6-0 ATS in road games off a double-digit road win as the coach of Michigan State. The Spartans are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing 150 or fewer yards in their previous game. The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents. Take Michigan State Thursday. |
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12-28-17 | Wolves v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
20* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a grueling 128-125 overtime victory over the Denver Nuggets last night. They won’t have much left in the tank for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, especially since they are expected to be without starting PG Jeff Teague. Milwaukee comes into this game highly motivated for a victory after back-to-back losses to Charlotte and Chicago. The Bucks will be the much fresher team as this will be just their 2nd game in 5 days. I expect a big effort from them tonight. The home team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings. The Bucks own the Timberwolves, going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. They won their last three home meetings with the Timberwolves by 7, 15 and 14 points. The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. The Timberwolves are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Bucks are 3-0-1 ATS In their last four games vs. at team with a winning record. Minnesota is 1-8 ATS in non-conference games this season. The Timberwolves are 17-42 ATS in their last 59 after scoring 120 points or more in their previous game. The Bucks are 25-12 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the past three seasons. Bet the Bucks Thursday. |
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12-28-17 | Bradley v. Drake OVER 139 | 64-66 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Bradley/Drake OVER 139 The Drake Bulldogs play an up-tempo system under first-year head coach Niko Medved now. The betting markets have been slow to catch up as the OVER is 7-3 in all Drake games this season. I look for a high-scoring affair tonight in their conference opener with Bradley. Drake is putting up 79.5 points per game and giving up 77.6 points per game on the season. They are shooting 41% from 3-point range which has been the key to their offensive success. But they still don’t play any defense, giving up 47.4% shooting to opponents. Just looking at this head-to-head history it’s easy to see there’s value with the OVER. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings, and that was before Medved was head coach at Drake. They combined for 143 or more points in four of the five meetings. And they averaged 145.0 combined points per game in those five meetings. Drake will control the tempo playing at home tonight. Drake is 8-1 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. The OVER is 9-1 in Drake’s last 10 December games. The OVER is 5-1 in Bulldogs last six games overall. The OVER is 9-2 in Bulldogs last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 45-20 in Bulldogs last 65 home games. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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12-28-17 | Providence +6.5 v. St. John's | 94-72 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +6.5 The Providence Friars are are undervalued right now because of a 2-9 ATS start to the season. But that is largely due to some significant injuries, and this team is getting healthy heading into conference season. I expect them to make a statement with likely an upset victory over St. John’s tonight, though we’ll take the points for some insurance. St. John’s is getting a lot of love due to its 10-2 start to the season. But the Red Storm have played a considerably weaker schedule than Providence. They still haven’t played a true road game, and they lost to the best teams they faced in Missouri (82-90) and Arizona State (70-82) on a neutral court. The Red Storm are still without their best player in G Marcus Lovett, who is doubtful tonight with an ankle injury. Providence is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with St. John’s. Home-court advantage has meant very little as the road team is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Providence has won its last three trips to St. John’s by 11, 14 and 17 points. The Friars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East opponents. Providence is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games. St. John’s is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Providence Thursday. |
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12-28-17 | Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma State -4 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 69 h 54 m | Show |
20* VA Tech/Oklahoma State Camping World Bowl No-Brainer on Oklahoma State -4 The Oklahoma State Cowboys were a national title contender coming into the season. So their 9-3 record is a bit of a disappointment, but it also has them coming into the bowl season undervalued. This team is among the Top 10 in the country talent-wise, and I think the price is cheap here as only 4-point favorites over the VA Tech Hokies in the Camping World Bowl because of it. The Cowboys were a very public team after a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start with three blowout victories. But they couldn’t live up to the expectations after that, going just 3-6 ATS over their final nine games as they were consistently laying big numbers that they couldn’t cover. But now they are in the type of price range that’s easy for them to cover as they basically just have to win the game by a touchdown or more here. The three losses came to Oklahoma, TCU and Kansas State at home, and they were competitive in all three games. Most impressively is the fact that Oklahoma State went 6-0 on the road. The Cowboys averaged 42.7 points and 532 yards per game on the road while giving up just 25.5 points and 345 yards per game on the highway. They outscored teams by 17.2 points per game and outgunned them by 187 yards per game on the road this season. Everyone knows about Oklahoma State’s high-powered offense that averages 46.2 points, 576 yards per game and 7.3 yards per play on the season against teams that allow 28.7 points, 420 yards per game and 5.9 per play. They are topping their opponent’s season averages by 17.5 points per game, 156 yards per game and 1.4 per play. Mason Rudolph is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, completing 65% of his passes for 4,553 yards with 35 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions while averaging 10.0 per attempt. But most folks don’t realize how improved Oklahoma State’s defense is this season. The Cowboys are allowing only 400 yards per game and 5.5 per play against teams that average 415 yards per game and 5.9 per play. Their defense fell off toward the end of the year against Oklahoma, and then with hangover games against Iowa State and Kansas State. But this defense is loaded with speed and talent and will be re-focused for this bowl game against Virginia Tech. The Hokies have a great defense, there’s no question, but their offense is just average. They score 28.7 points pre game and average 5.4 yards per play against teams that give up 5.6 per play. They struggle to throw the football, and they are stubborn trying to run the ball. They average 44 rushing attempts per game, but only 167 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry. Virginia Tech’s offense won’t be able to keep up with Mason Rudolph and company in this one. That’s especially the case now that they are going to be without two of their best playmakers in WR Cam Phillips and RB Travon McMillian. Phillips is the leading receiver on the team by a landslide with 71 receptions for 964 yards and 7 touchdowns, so his loss is huge. McMillian leads the team in rushing and is a significant loss as well. Oklahoma State is 28-12 ATS in its last 40 games after scoring 50 points or more in its last game. Mike Gundy is 19-10 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points as the coach of Oklahoma State. Gundy is 15-4 ATS after two straight games with 40 or more pass attempts as the coach of the Cowboys. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games. Bet Oklahoma State Thursday. |
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12-27-17 | Cavs v. Kings +9.5 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +9.5 The Cleveland Cavaliers are in a big hangover spot tonight against the Sacramento Kings. They just lost to their biggest rivals in the Golden State Warriors 99-92 on Christmas Day. There’s no way they will bring the same intensity to this game against the Kings that they did against the Warriors. That’s especially the case considering they just beat the Kings 101-95 as 12.5-point home favorites earlier this month. They will think they can just show up and win, while the Kings will be ultra motivated to get revenge and pull off the upset. I realize the Kings played last night against the Clippers on the road, but that was a blowout and they won’t be fatigued because of it. They were probably looking ahead to this game. And this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days, so the effects of the back-to-back are a non-factor here. Cleveland is 0-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% this season. The Cavaliers are 3-14 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season. Cleveland is 0-12 ATS as a favorite of 9.5 or more points this season. The Cavaliers are 5-21 ATS as a favorite this year. Bet the Kings Wednesday. |
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12-27-17 | Colorado State +11.5 v. Boise State | 71-93 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Colorado State +11.5 The head-to-head series between Colorado State and Boise State has been remarkably close. That’s why the Rams getting 11.5 points here is way too much, and I think there’s a ton of value with this double-digit underdog tonight. Indeed, each of the last seven meetings in this series have been decided by 7 points or fewer. They have been decided by 3, 1, 7, 4, 4, 4, and 6 points in the last seven meetings, respectively. Colorado State has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Boise State is 1-8 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons. The Broncos are actually losing 74.4 to 74.6 on average in this spot. The Rams are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 conference games. The Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last nine conference games. Roll with Colorado State Wednesday. |
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12-27-17 | Purdue +3.5 v. Arizona | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 203 h 40 m | Show |
20* Purdue/Arizona Foster Farms Bowl No-Brainer on Purdue +3.5 Jeff Brohm seriously deserved coach of the year consideration for the job he did at Purdue this season. He took a team that was 9-39 over the past four seasons and got them to 6-6 and a bowl game in the rugged Big Ten. This team was undervalued all seasons with their 8-4 ATS record, and I think they remain undervalued as underdogs here to Arizona in the Foster Farms Bowl. What the Boilermakers did down the stretch shows how badly they wanted to make a bowl game. They went 3-1 over their final four games, beating Illinois 29-10 at home, Iowa 24-15 as 6-point road underdogs, and Indiana 31-24 at home. That Indiana game was a 31-10 blowout late in the fourth quarter before giving up two garbage touchdowns late. And in their lone loss, they put up 438 total yards against a very good Northwestern team in a 13-23 road loss. They outgained the Wildcats in that contest. So there’s no question that Purdue wants to be playing in this bowl game. It will be their first bowl game since 2012 and only their third bowl appearance in the last 10 years. And Brohm is 2-0 in his career in bowl games. At Western Kentucky, they beat Memphis 51-31 as 7-point favorites in 2016 and USF 45-35 as 2-point favorites in 2015. I trust Brohm and his players to come forth with a big effort in this game Wednesday. Brohm was known for his offense at Western Kentucky, and while they do have a solid offense that averages 5.6 yards per play against teams that only allow 5.3 per play, the real improvement on this team has come on defense. The Boilermakers only allow 19.3 points per game and 5.2 yards per play against teams that average 28.6 yards per game and 5.7 per play. They are holding opponents to 9.3 points and 0.5 yards per play below their season averages. That’s the sign of an elite defense. I think Arizona remains overvalued due to the Khalil Tate factor. He has taken the college football world by storm. And he started off tremendous against some bad teams, but then teams got film on him and the Wildcats struggled down the stretch. Arizona went 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS over its final four games with its only win coming against terrible Oregon State. The Wildcats lost all three games by double-digits. No question Purdue has a massive edge on defense in this game. And the matchup favors this Purdue defense because stopping Tate and the running game is the key. The Boilermakers are equipped to do just that. They give up just 132 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against opponents that average 174 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry on average. They are holding teams to 42 yards and 0.9 per carry less than their season averages. Arizona has one of the worst defenses in the country. They give up 34.1 points, 464 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play against teams that average 28 points, 420 yards per game and 5.7 per play. The Wildcats have allowed 37 or more points in six of their last eight games coming into this bowl game. It’s a defense that cannot be trusted, and certainly one that can’t be trusted to lay points here. While Brohm is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in bowl games, Arizona head coach Rich Rodriquez has been terrible in bowl games. Rodriquez is just 3-7 ATS in his career in bowl games. Arizona barely beat New Mexico last year and barely beat Nevada a few years back. The Wildcats lost when they took a step up in class in recent bowl games against Oklahoma State and Boise State. And I think Purdue is a step up in class for them here. The Wildcats are also 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games. Rodriquez is 1-10 ATS in road games after three straight games where 60 or more points were scored in all games he has coached. Brohm is 10-2 ATS versus good rushing teams averaging 4.75 or more yards per carry in all games he has coached. Arizona is 0-7 ATS in road games off two straight conference games over the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in road games in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Purdue is 6-0 ATS in road games off one or more straight overs over the last two years. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site games. The Boilermakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games. These seven trends combine for a 47-3 system backing the Boilermakers. Bet Purdue Wednesday. |
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12-27-17 | Celtics v. Hornets +1.5 | 102-91 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Hornets +1.5 The Boston Celtics are running on fumes right now. They haven’t had two straight days off since November 28-29. They will be playing their 11th game in 19 days here tonight, and they have a home game against Houston on deck tomorrow. It’s no wonder the Celtics are currently going through their roughest stretch of the season. They have lost three of their last four to Miami, New York and Washington. The Celtics are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Making matters worse for the Celtics is that they are banged-up right now. They are without Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown and Semi Ojeleye for this game. Their depth, which has been a huge strength up to this point, has been compromised. The Hornets are fresh and ready to go tonight as they have had three days off since beating the Bucks 111-106 at home on Saturday. They are also extremely healthy right now for the first time basically all season as they only significant player they are missing is bench player Cody Zeller. The Hornets blew a 57-41 halftime lead and lost 87-90 at Boston in their only meeting against the Celtics this season. They will be motivated for revenge at home this time around. The Hornets are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days. Take the Hornets Wednesday. |
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12-27-17 | Boston College v. Iowa -2.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 56 m | Show | |
15* Boston College/Iowa Pinstripe Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Iowa -2.5 Let’s just start out with the fact that Iowa is going to be highly motivated for a victory in this bowl game. The Hawkeyes have lost five straight bowl games and really want to end that streak. But there’s a reason they’ve lost five straight because they have been underdogs in all five against superior competition. The five losses have come to Oklahoma as 13-point dogs, LSU as 7-point dogs, Tennessee as 3-point dogs, Stanford as 6-point dogs and Florida as 3-point dogs. Now they finally get to take a step down in class after a 7-5 season against 7-5 Boston College. And they’re favored for a reason here because they are clearly the better team. And these Iowa seniors will be motivated to taste their first bowl victory. Iowa closed it season with a 56-14 blowout at Nebraska. Four of Iowa’s five losses this season came by single-digits, and the one exception was a loss at Wisconsin the week after their 55-24 win over Ohio State. That was arguably the best win of the season of any team in college football against the Buckeyes, and it was clearly a massive letdown spot the next week against Wisconsin. Boston College had a very impressive season with one of the youngest teams in the country. But a big reason for the Eagles’ success was freshman quarterback Anthony Brown. This offense isn’t nearly as explosive without Brown’s dual-threat ability. He has missed the final two games of the season. I think people will see that Boston College blew out its final opponents so the Brown loss isn’t that big. But one of the wins was against one of the worst teams in college football in UConn 39-16, and the other was against a Syracuse team that was without starting quarterback Eric Dungey by a final of 42-14. UConn and Syracuse have terrible defenses, and this will be a big step up in class for backup QB Darius Wade against this Iowa defense. Boston College only averages 163 passing yards per game and 5.7 per attempt. So the key to stopping the Eagles is stopping their running game, which averages 224 yards per game and 4.7 per carry. That makes this a perfect matchup for head coach Kirk Ferentz and this Iowa defense. His teams have always thrived against power-running teams, and that will show in this next trend. Ferentz is 36-15 ATS versus good rushing teams averaging 200 or more rushing yards per game as the coach of Iowa. The Hawkeyes gave up just 19.9 points per game this season, and they allowed just 142 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry in the rugged Big Ten. Iowa is 55-28 ATS in its last 83 games after failing to cover the spread in two of its last three games coming in. The Eagles are 2-6 ATS in their last eight bowl games. The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big Ten opponents. Boston College is 1-8 ATS in its last nine December games. Take Iowa in the Pinstripe Bowl Wednesday. |
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12-26-17 | Kansas State v. UCLA UNDER 60.5 | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show | |
15* Kansas State/UCLA Cactus Bowl BAILOUT on UNDER 60.5 Josh Rosen, the potential No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft, is doubtful to play in this game with a concussion. The line moving from K-State -2.5 to -6.5 indicates he is not going to play. That completely changes the complexion of this game, and I think the UNDER is a great beat tonight. Rosen means everything to this offense. He is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 3,717 yards with 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on the season while averaging 8.2 per attempt. Backup Devon Modster hasn’t been nearly as effective in spot duty for him. Look for the Bruins to go to more of a run-first approach without him. Running the ball certainly isn’t a strength of the Bruins. They are averaging just 120 rushing yards per game and 3.9 per carry. Kansas State been tremendous at stopping the run this season, holding opponents to just 122 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry. The Wildcats once again feature a methodical offense that likes to churn yards out on the ground. They only average 182 passing yards per game. They rush 39 times per game for 187 yards per game and 4.8 per carry. They will keep the ball on the ground in this game and churn out yards and burn clock. Kansas State is also likely to go with a redshirt freshman at quarterback due to injuries to starter Jesse Ertz and backup Alex Delton. He went 10-of-21 for 152 yards in the season finale against Iowa State. He isn’t likely to handle this big stage that well, and the game plan will be conservative with him under center. Plays on the UNDER on neutral field teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (UCLA) - off a home win against a conference rival against an opponent off a win against a conference rival are 28-9 (75.7%) over the last 10 seasons. The UNDER is 4-1 in Wildcats last five December games. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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12-26-17 | Pacers v. Pistons -1.5 | 83-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -1.5 The Detroit Pistons are getting zero respect from oddsmakers as only 1.5-point home favorites over the Indiana Pacers tonight. They are 4-1 in their last five games overall and deserve to be getting more respect here tonight. One of those was a 104-98 road win at Indiana as 5-point underdogs. The Pacers are just 3-3 in their last six games. Their three wins came against Brooklyn (twice) and Atlanta, two of the worst teams in the NBA. Now they have to travel and face a Pistons team that has a huge home-court advantage over the past several seasons, going 10-5 at home this year. The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on three or more days’ rest. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The favorite is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Roll with the Pistons Tuesday. |
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12-26-17 | Utah v. West Virginia UNDER 57 | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 172 h 41 m | Show |
25* College Bowl TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Utah/West Virginia UNDER 57 I expect a low-scoring affair between Utah and West Virginia today. The biggest reason is that West Virginia is going to be without starting quarterback Will Grier, who means everything to their offense. They will have to go to a more run-first approach without him. Grier was one of the better quarterbacks in the country this season. He completed 64.4 percent of his passes for 3,490 yards with 34 touchdowns and 12 interceptions while averaging 9.0 per attempt. Backup Chris Chugunov completes just 54.8 percent of his passes and averages 6.6 per attempt in limited action in Grier’s place. Utah boasts an elite defense once again this season that gives up just 23.9 points, 353 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 29.5 points, 405 yards and 5.8 per play. They are stout up front and will be able to limit WVU’s run-heavy attack in this one. Utah also insists on running the football more than it throws it. But the Utes have struggled to run the ball this year. They average 39 attempts for 161 yards per game and 4.1 per carry against teams that give up 188 yards per game and 4.6 per carry on the ground. They are a below-average running team. Utah is 29-10 UNDER in its last 39 road games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game. The UNDER is 5-1 in Utah last six games following a win by more than 20 points. The UNDER is 7-1 in Mountaineers last eight December games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday. |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles -9 | Top | 10-19 | Push | 0 | 61 h 45 m | Show |
20* Raiders/Eagles ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Philadelphia -9 The Philadelphia Eagles can clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win over the Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football. It’s safe to say they will be motivated to the max. A win would allow them to rest their starters in Week 17 and really get a leg up on the competition heading into the playoffs. Conversely, the Oakland Raiders have officially been eliminated from the playoffs. And the way they were eliminated will be very difficult to recover from. Derek Carr was diving for the game-winning touchdown against the Cowboys last week, but he fumbled through the end zone for a touchback. Gone with that fumble was any hope of them making the postseason. There’s no question in my mind that the Raiders will suffer a hangover from that defeat, and they won’t even show up Monday night. The Raiders also have some significant injuries at the wide receiver position that hamper them even further. Both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are highly questionable heading into this game. Cooper has a nagging ankle injury, while Crabtree suffered a concussion against the Cowboys that forced him off the field for the final play of the game. They may both play, but I question the effectiveness of Carr’s top two receivers. The Eagles are a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season. They are outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 19.8 points per game, scoring 35.0 on offense and giving up just 15.2 on defense. Nick Foles showed last week that he can man the offense just fine, throwing four touchdown passes against the Giants on the road and leading the Eagles to 34 points. Doug Perderson is a perfect 8-0 ATS off two or more consecutive overs as the coach of Philadelphia. Pederson is 7-0 ATS in home games off a win as the coach of the Eagles. I don’t think the Raiders will enjoy the cold weather in Philadelphia Monday night, either. I always like fading warm weather West Coast teams in these cold weather games. It’s expected to be 26 degrees and windy Monday night. Bet the Eagles Monday. |
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12-25-17 | Rockets v. Thunder +2 | Top | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
20* Rockets/Thunder NBA No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City +2 The Oklahoma City Thunder have had this game circled all offseason. They lost 4-1 to the Rockets in the playoffs with three of those losses coming by 6 points or fewer. They were a one-man show with Russell Westbrook then, but that’s the case no longer now. The Thunder have finally started to gel with Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, going 6-1 in their last seven games overall coming in. They are primed to upset the Houston Rockets on Christmas Day. The Rockets have struggled of late with back-to-back upset home losses to the Lakers are 15-point favorites and the Clippers as 12.5-point favorites. It’s easy to see why they’ve struggled with their injuries right now. Chris Paul has missed the past couple games and is doubtful, Luc Mbah a Moute remains out, and Clint Capela is questionable. The Thunder are 40-18-3 ATS in their last 61 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Oklahoma City is 12-4 at home this season, winning by 7.0 points per game on average. Take the Thunder Monday. |
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12-25-17 | 76ers v. Knicks -3 | 105-98 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
15* 76ers/Knicks ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on New York -3 One of the best bets of the early NBA season is backing the New York Knicks when at home. They are 15-5 SU & 15-5 ATS in their 20 home games this year, winning by an average of 7.0 points per game. Madison Square Garden is becoming the home-court advantage that it used to be. Now the Knicks get to host the struggling Philadelphia 76ers, who are just 1-9 SU in their last 10 games overall. The 76ers are also just 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games. They continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers night in and night out. The 76ers are dealing with a bunch of injuries right now, too. Markelle Fultz is out, J.J. Redick is questionable and Joel Embiid is nursing a back injury, though he is likely to play today. The Knicks are basically fully healthy outside of Tim Hardaway. New York is 7-0 ATS in home games after having won four or five of its last six games this season. The 76ers are 0-8-1 ATS when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Knicks are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. New York is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games. Roll with the Knicks Monday. |
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12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State OVER 49 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 131 h 42 m | Show | |
15* Houston/Fresno State Hawai’i Bowl BAILOUT on OVER 49 I think the fact that both Houston and Fresno State were heavy under teams during the regular season is giving us value to pull the trigger on the OVER in the Hawai’i Bowl. The Cougars went 2-9 to the under this season, while the Bulldogs went 3-9-1 to the under this year. But we’ve seen this story in bowl games before. Offenses pull out new tricks with all of that extra time to prepare, and I think that will certainly be the case here. Both head coaches in Jeff Tedford and Major Applewhite are great offensive minds who got their jobs because of the work they’ve done on the offensive side of the football. Fresno State made its run to a trip to the MWC title game after quarterback Marcus McMaryion took over the reigns after the non-conference portion of the schedule. He went on to complete 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,384 yards with 14 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions while averaging 7.9 per attempt. He also rushed for 250 yards and two scores on 5.1 per carry. The same thing happened for Houston once D’Eriq King took over at quarterback four the final four games of the season. He has completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 991 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.3 per attempt. King also brings a big rushing element to the offense, rushing for 341 yards and eight scores while averaging 5.4 per carry. He has 15 pass plays of 20 or more yards, including touchdowns of 61, 62 and 75 yards despite such limited action. Tedford is 17-5 OVER in non-conference road games in all games he has coached. We’re seeing an average of 61.6 points per game on average in this spot. The OVER is 12-5-1 in Bulldogs last 18 non-conference games. Perfect conditions inside Aloha Stadium in Hawai’i will also help aid this OVER. Bet the OVER in the Hawai’i Bowl Sunday. |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 102 h 33 m | Show | |
15* Jags/49ers Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco +4.5 I’ve backed the San Francisco 49ers with success in three consecutive weeks. I’m not about to buck them now as they are once again undervalued here Sunday as 4.5-point home underdogs to the Jacksonville Jaguars. They are 3-0 under Jimmy Garoppolo, and they are clearly playing with a new level of excitement and intensity on both sides of the ball now. The 49ers won Garoppolos’ first start 15-14 at Chicago as 2.5-point underdogs. That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. They outgunned the Bears by 241 yards and should have won by a lot more. But they had red zone struggles with penalties and critical mistakes that had them settling for five field goals. Two weeks ago the 49ers went into Houston and won 26-16 as 1-point road underdogs. They outgunned the Texans by 105 yards in that contest. Garoppolo threw for 334 yards and a touchdown in the win. The 49ers put up 416 total yards a week after amassing 388 total yards against a good Bears defense. Those two performances showed that this is a much more dynamic offensive under Garoppolo. Last week the 49ers moved the ball up and down the field at will on the Tennessee Titans. They only won that game 22-20, but it should have been a much bigger blowout. They again had problems in the red zone and settled for a whopping six field goals. Garoppolo had another monster game, completing 31 of 43 passes for 381 yards with a touchdown and zero interceptions. While the offense is hitting on all cylinders under Garoppolo and Kyle Shanahan, the defense has been extremely impressive and not getting the respect they deserve. The 49ers are only giving up 262.0 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play in their last three contests. They should be able to slow down a mediocre Jaguars offense that could be missing three key playmakers in Leonard Fournette, Allen Hurns and Marquise Lee. The Jacksonville Jaguars come in way overvalued due to its 45-7 home victory over Houston last week. It was their third straight victory, all coming at home. Now they hit the road for the first time since November. They were last on the road on November 26th, getting upset 27-24 at Arizona as 6-point favorites. They were actually outgunned by 125 yards by the Cardinals in that contest. Let’s just look at this game from a line value perspective. San Francisco goes from being a 2.5-point home favorite against Tennessee to a 4.5-point home dog against Jacksonville. Well, Jacksonville and Tennessee are two similar teams talent-wise, and yet their is a 7-point swing in this line. So we are basically getting 7 points of value with the 49ers in my opinion this week. Jacksonville now has a two-game lead over Tennessee for first place in the AFC South. Well, Tennessee is a touchdown home underdog to the Los Angeles Rams this week. That game will go off at 1:00 EST and will be over by the time this game starts. So the Jaguars are likely to clinch the AFC South title before this game starts. I will certainly question their motivated this week if the Titans lose to the Rams like they’re supposed to. Basically, I know for sure I’m going to get a big effort from the 49ers, but the Jaguars motivation is in question to say the least given the situation. Jacksonville is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games off two consecutive covers as a favorite. The Jaguars are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. NFC West opponents. Jacksonville is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following a win by more than 14 points. Roll with the 49ers Sunday. |
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12-24-17 | Broncos +3.5 v. Redskins | Top | 11-27 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 1 m | Show |
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver Broncos +3.5 The Denver Broncos are probably the single-most underrated team in the entire NFL heading into the final two weeks of the season. This team has a 5-9 record, and that’s what the betting public looks at, but this team has the numbers of a 9-5 team or better. The Broncos are actually outgaining opponents by 46 yards per game on the season. That is one of the better marks in the NFL. Their offense has just been mediocre at best, but their defense has been one of the best in the league, and defense travels. The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in yards per game allowed at 276.8. They are second in third-down percentage (30.8%) allowed. They defend the run well, they can stack the box because they have some of the best corners in the NFL who can play man-to-man. It’s clear that the Broncos have not quit, and their defense continues to play at a high level. They have won their last two games with a 23-0 victory over the Jets and a 25-13 triumph over the Colts. They held the Jets to just 100 total yards and the Colts to just 228 total yards in the two victories. But what really intrigues me is the performance of Brock Osweiler last week after he replaced the injured Trevor Siemian. He led the Broncos to a season-high 462 total yards. Osweiler finished with a 99.4 QBR out of 100, which is the single-best mark in the NFL in any one game this year. He had 194 passing yards on 12 completions and two touchdowns, while also rushing for a score. He is motivated to try and prove that he belongs as a started in the NFL over the final three weeks, and you could see that against the Colts last week. The Redskins are 6-8, and they have the numbers of a 6-8 team. They are getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season. They have been hit hard by injuries on both sides of the football. Their defense is giving up points in bunches and cannot be trusted. The Redskins have allowed 30 or more points in six of their last nine games overall. The Redskins were fortunate to beat the Cardinals 20-15 last week. They were outgunned 218 to 286 by the Cardinals, but Arizona was held to five field goals, and their red zone struggles were the difference. The Redskins have been held to 65 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games. They are going to be one-dimensional because Denver ranks 4th in the NFL against the run. But the Broncos are 2nd against the pass, so they are as equipped as anyone to stop Kirk Cousins and Washington’s preferred pass attack. I like the fact that the Broncos come in on extra rest here too after playing the Colts last Thursday. That will give them ample time to get ready for Washington, and getting a few extra days of rest is huge this late in the season when players are worn down. It will make them the more energized team heading into this game Sunday. Washington is 61-94 ATS in its last 155 games as a favorite, including 42-69 ATS in its last 111 games as a home favorite. The Redskins are 6-22 ATS in their last 28 home games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%. Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games following a win. The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. Bet the Broncos Sunday. |
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12-24-17 | Browns +6.5 v. Bears | 3-20 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 27 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +6.5 The Cleveland Browns will continue fighting over these final two weeks to try and avoid a winless season. Now they have one of their best chances yet to get a win this week against the 4-10 Chicago Bears. And they are getting 6.5 points to boot, which is too many I believe. The Browns rank last in turnover differential by a wide margin this season. They are -25 in turnover differential. They haven’t forced a turnover in four games. I think they have been extremely unlucky this season in the turnover department. Fortunately, this week they’re up against a Bears defense that doesn’t force many turnovers. The Bears have only forced 19 turnovers on the season. And Chicago has a ton of injury issues right now on defense that will make life easier on Deshon Kizer and the Browns offense. This is a good matchup for the Browns on defense as well. The strength of the Browns is their rushing defense, which ranks 7th in the NFL in giving up just 96.1 rushing yards per game. The Browns are actually 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per carry (3.3) allowed. The Bears only average 177 passing yards per game, so stopping the rushing attack is the key to stopping them. The Bears average 118 rushing yards per game and 4.4 per carry. Cleveland is equipped to slow down Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. My favorite trend in this game pertains to Chicago head coach John Fox. Fox is 0-7 SU & 0-7 ATS as a favorite as the coach of the Bears. Chicago is losing by 8.4 points per game in this spot. That’s right, the Bears have never even won a game straight up in seven tries as a favorite under Fox. Chicago is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 home games versus poor offensive teams that score 17 or fewer points per game. Plays on road underdogs or PK (Cleveland) - after seven or more consecutive losses, in the second half of the season are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS since 1983. The Browns are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bears are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. Take the Browns Sunday. |
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12-23-17 | Wolves v. Suns +8 | 115-106 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +8 The Phoenix Suns continue to get no respect from oddsmakers since trading away Eric Bledsoe and losing Devin Booker to injury. But this team has arguably been better since because they are so deep. And they consistently catch more points in the underdog role than they should be getting, which is the case once again tonight as 8-point home dogs to the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Suns have gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They have only gone 4-7 SU during this stretch, but only three of those seven losses came by more than this 8-point spread. They have only played four games at home during this stretch, and only one of those game resulted in a loss by more than 8 points. Phoenix has played Minnesota extremely tough this season. This will be the 4th and final meeting of the season, and the Suns are 2-1 SU & 2-0-1 ATS in their first three meetings. They won 118-110 as 10-point home dogs, won 108-106 as 12-point road dogs, and only lost 108-119 as 11-point road dogs for their only push. So they have actually played the Timberwolves very evenly, and they should be able to stay within 8 points at home again. Minnesota is 21-37 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons. The Timberwolves ar e3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning % of less than .400. The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games. Phoenix is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Suns Saturday. |
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12-23-17 | Vikings -8 v. Packers | 16-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
15* Vikings/Packers NFC North No-Brainer on Minnesota -8 The Green Bay Packers have quit. They just suffered their dream-crushing loss last week despite the return of Aaron Rodgers. Now they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs. As a result, management has decided to put Rodgers back on injured reserve, signaling to the entire team that they don’t care about these last two games. The Packers also have a laundry list of injuries elsewhere outside of Rodgers. There are currently 19 players either on injured reserve or questionable, including WR Devante Adams, who has 10 touchdowns receptions on the season. Adams would be a huge loss, and it would be smart of the Packers to rest him considering it’s the second severe concussion he has suffered this season. They shouldn’t risk his long-term health. The Vikings have a shutdown corner in Xavier Rhodes, and they’ll put him on Jordy Nelson. Brett Hundley won’t have many options outside, and those limitations are a big reason why I like the Vikings this week. The Vikings will be highly motivated. They need to keep winning to clinch a first-round bye. If they were to lose and the Panthers were to win this week, they would lose the tiebreaker to the Panthers because of a head-to-head loss. That’s why I’m not concerned at all about Minnesota’s motivation. They would love to kick the Packers while they’re down after so many years of frustration against them in this division. "I told my team this: We're a good team, we're not a great team,” Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer said. "I don't know if there's any great teams out there, but we're a good team. We don't have the luxury of looking past anybody, and that's really not our mentality as a football team (or) the kind of guys that we have.” Hundley will face a huge challenge against a Vikings defense that ranks second in the NFL in total defense and scoring defense. Conversely, Case Keenum is in line for a big day. He is ranked eighth in the NFL in passer rating (98.9) and second in completion percentage (67.9). Green Bay is No. 30 in opponent passer rating (100.5) and No. 30 in opponent completion percentage (68.4). The Packers gave up four touchdown passes to Cam Newton and a season-worst 29 first downs last week. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Minnesota) after a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers against an opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or less are 54-23 (70.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Vikings are 41-16 ATS in their last 57 games overall. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. Take the Vikings Saturday. |
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12-23-17 | Thunder v. Jazz | 103-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Utah Jazz PK I love the spot for the Utah Jazz tonight. They had yesterday off. That followed a 100-89 home win over the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday, which came after an ugly 79-107 road loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday. Now the Jazz will be out for revenge getting to face the Thunder just three days later, but at Salt Lake City this time around. And the Thunder are extremely vulnerable coming into this game. They won’t be motivated to beat a team they just blew out three days ago. And they are coming off an emotional buzzer-beating 120-117 home win over the Hawks last night as 11.5-point home favorites. It’s a clear letdown spot for them. Plus, the Thunder are running on fumes right now. Not only will they be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back, they will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days. The Thunder haven’t had back-to-back days off since November 27-28. This is such a tired team right now, and it helps explain why they are just 10-21 ATS on the season, including 5-11 SU & 4-12 ATS in road games. Utah 9-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season, including a perfect 7-0 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more. The Thunder are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games. Oklahoma City is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a losing record. Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. The home team is 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. Roll with the Jazz Saturday. |
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12-23-17 | Bucks v. Hornets UNDER 212 | 106-111 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Bucks/Hornets UNDER 212 This is one of my favorite situations to back an UNDER. This is a home-and-home situation between the Bucks and Hornets. These teams just played last night with the Bucks winning 109-104 at home. Now they play again a day later in Charlotte this time around. So they combined for 213 points last night, and now the total is set at 212. The second meeting in these home-and-home situations is almost always lower scoring than the first. And I expect that to be the case here as these teams are obviously extremely familiar with one another. In fact, this will actually be the 4th and final meeting of the season between these teams already. It will be their 4th meeting in a two months as their first meeting occurred on October 23rd. No two teams are more familiar with each other than the Hornets and Bucks this season, which favors the defenses. Milwaukee is 39-22 UNDER in its last 61 road games where the total is 210 to 219.5. Charlotte is 21-10 UNDER after having lost three of its last four games over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in Hornets last four games playing on 0 days’ rest. The UNDER is 8-2 in Hornets last 10 games when their opponent allowed 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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12-23-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Raptors | Top | 86-102 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Philadelphia 76ers +10.5 I love the Philadelphia 76ers in this spot. This is a home-and-home situation after the 76ers lost 109-114 at home to the Toronto on Thursday. Now they get their shot at revenge only two days later and are catching 10.5 points in the rematch to boot. I’ll gladly back the more motivated team catching double-digit points here. The 76ers are certainly a ‘buy low’ team right now after going just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games. But they were never once a double-digit underdog in those 13 games. They were favored in eight of them. Now they’re back to their more preferred role as underdogs. The Raptors are a great ‘sell high’ candidate right now. They have gone 11-1 SU in their last 12 games while covering each of their last four against the spread. But it has come against an extremely soft schedule, and it’s worth noting the Raptors are just 5-7 SU against teams who are above .500 this season. They aren’t as good as they’re perceived to be right now. Plays against any team (Toronto) off two or more consecutive road wins, in December games are 76-35 (68.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on any team (Philadelphia) off a home loss to a division rival against opponent off a home win against a division foe are 49-18 (73.1%) ATS over the last five years. Philadelphia is 23-8 ATS in its last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the 76ers Saturday. |
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12-23-17 | Army v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 52 m | Show |
20* Army/San Diego State Armed Forces Bowl ANNIHILATOR on San Diego State -6.5 Despite being 10-2 this season, I think the San Diego State Aztecs are actually being undervalued because they didn’t win the Mountain West. But they basically gave the game away to Boise State, and they suffered a hangover the next week against Fresno State, the two teams that played in the Mountain West Championship. Rocky Long has done a great job of refocusing the Aztecs and getting them to finish the season strong following those two losses. This is a team that beat both Arizona State and Stanford earlier in the season, and then they finishes the year by going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS over their final four games with four straight wins all by 19 points or more. Now Rocky Long gets extra time to prepare for Army’s triple-option. I always like fading triple-option teams when their opponent has extra time to prepare. And Long is used to facing triple-option teams having to play Air Force every season. And boy do his defenses know how to stop them. In his time at San Diego State, Long’s teams are 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS in 15 games against triple-option teams. I really question Army’s motivation in this bowl game. They just upset Navy for a second consecutive year with a late touchdown to win 14-13. That game was their Super Bowl, and they won’t nearly be as motivated to face San Diego State as they were to face Navy. Army was a very fortunate team this season, going 5-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. I don’t think the Black Knights are nearly as good as their 9-3 record would suggest. And they played a much softer schedule than that of San Diego State. Seven of the Aztecs’ 10 wins came by double-digits, while only four of Army’s nine wins came by double-digits, and those were against Fordham, UTEP, Rice and Air Force. Rocky Long’s teams always get after it defensively, and this year has been no exception. They only give up 18.4 points, 299 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season. They have been extremely good at stopping the run, allowing just 111 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry. That makes this an excellent matchup for their defense. San Diego State actually has one of the best offenses it has had in years this season. The Aztecs average 30.4 points per game. They are led by a ground attack that produces 253 yards per game and 5.5 per carry. Army gives up 5.0 per carry, so this is also a good matchup for their offense. Rashaad Penny, one of the most underrated players in college football, rushed for 2,027 yards and 19 touchdowns this season while averaging 7.4 per carry. He’ll be primed for a big game in this one. The Aztecs have won their last two bowl games in blowout fashion with a 34-10 win over Houston as 4-point dogs in the Las Vegas Bowl last year, and a 42-7 win over Cincinnati as 2-point favorites in the Hawai’i Bowl in 2015. Plays on any team (San Diego State) - excellent rushing team averaging 4.8 or more yards per carry against a terrible rushing defense giving up 4.8 or more per carry after 7-plus games, after outrushing their last two opponents by 150 or more yards per game are 37-10 (78.7%) ATS since 1992. The Black Knights are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. MWC opponents. Bet San Diego State Saturday. |
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12-23-17 | Ohio State +7 v. North Carolina | 72-86 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
15* Ohio State/UNC CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Ohio State +7 Former Butler head coach Chris Holtmann was a great hire at Ohio State. After a semi slow start to the season, this team has really kicked it into gear of late. I think we are getting the Buckeyes at a great value here against UNC as 7-point underdogs on a neutral court down in New Orleans Saturday. The Buckeyes are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS in their last five games overall. They beat Wisconsin by 25 on the road as 7.5-point underdogs, and topped Michigan 71-62 as 2-point home favorites during this stretch. The other three wins came by 35, 13 and 29 points against overmatched competition. The UNC Tar Heels are not playing well at all. They trailed almost the entire way before going on a run late to squeak by Tennessee 78-73. Then they suffered one of the most shocking losses of the season with a 75-79 home loss to Wofford as 25-point favorites on Wednesday, December 20th. That’s not the kind of effort that would warrant them being 7-point favorites here. North Carolina is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 80%. Plays against neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (UNC) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, in December games are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS since 1997. The Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. ACC opponents. Bet Ohio State Saturday. |
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12-22-17 | Lakers +11 v. Warriors | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
20* Lakers/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +11 The Los Angeles Lakers are going to want revenge from two overtime home losses to the Golden State Warriors already this season. They lost 123-127 as 13.5-point dogs, and then 114-116 as 5.5-point dogs on December 18th just five days ago. I really like the revenge factor being fresh in this quick rematch. The Lakers are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now. They are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They have been on the road for five of these six games, pulling off upset wins over Philadelphia as 8.5-point dogs, Houston as 15-point dogs and Charlotte as 3.5-point dogs. And all three of their losses came by 2, 4 and 9 points. That 9-point loss came in a cover as 10.5-point dogs at Cleveland. The Warriors are vulnerable right now because of all their injuries. Steph Curry, Zaza Pachulia and Shaun Livingston remain out, Andre Iguodala is questionable, and Draymond Green is expected to play tonight but is battling as shoulder injury. I don’t expect a very focused effort from the Warriors tonight after just beating the Lakers on Monday. Plays on road teams (LA Lakers) - revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less, a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games are 54-25 (68.4%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing on one days’ rest. The Warriors are 10-24 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet the Lakers Friday. |
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12-22-17 | Xavier v. Northern Iowa +6.5 | 77-67 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Northern Iowa +6.5 The Xavier Musketeers are clearly vulnerable right now due to all their injuries. That has shown in their last two games. They beat East Tennessee State 68-66 as 21.5-point favorites, needing to erase a 22-point second half deficit to do so. Then they only beat Marshall 81-77 as 19-point home favorites last time out. That Marshall game was on Tuesday, so they have only had two days to get ready for Northern Iowa. Now four key players are questionable to play tonight for the Musketeers. They are three of their top four scorers in J.P. Macura (11.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg), Tyrique Jones (9.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg) and Kaiser Gates (9.7 ppg, 5.3 rpg), plus key bench player Naji Marshall (8.1 ppg). Northern Iowa is consistently one of the most underrated teams in the Missouri Valley year in and year out. They are 8-3 SU this season with their only losses coming to North Carolina, Villanova and Iowa State. They have beaten UNLV, NC State and SMU, so they have gone through the gauntlet. Now they are going to want revenge from two losses to Xavier last season. They didn’t get to play Xavier at home last year, but they do this season, and they have a great home-court advantage. The Panthers are 6-0 at home this season winning by 23.5 points per game on average. The Musketeers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Take Northern Iowa Friday. |
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12-22-17 | Knicks v. Pistons UNDER 203.5 | 101-104 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Pistons UNDER 203.5 The New York Knicks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back tonight after a 102-93 home win over the Boston Celtics last night. Kristaps Porzingis made his return from injury, but went 0-for-11 and didn’t attempt a shot in the second half. He clearly isn’t 100% and it wouldn’t surprise me if they continue to rest him tonight. The Pistons have really been struggling offensively of late. They have been held to 100 or fewer points in seven of their last 11 games overall. They have shot 43.6% or less in eight of those 11 games as well. They miss Avery Bradley and Jon Leuer, who are both out with injury right now. Both of these teams prefer to play at slower tempos. The Pistons rank 21st in pace while the Knicks are 19th. The UNDER is 4-2 in the last six meetings as these teams have combined for 204 or fewer points in four of those six. I think we see a very low-scoring game tonight given the tough situation for the Knicks, and the offensive struggles of the Pistons. The UNDER is 25-12-1 in Knicks last 38 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The UNDER is 8-2-1 in Pistons last 11 games overall. The UNDER is 20-5-1 in Pistons last 26 games following a loss. The UNDER is 5-0 in Pistons last five Friday games. The UNDER is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Detroit. Take the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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12-22-17 | Temple v. Georgia -3 | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -3 The Georgia Bulldogs have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season. They are 8-2 on the year, including 5-0 at home. Mark Fox has one of his best teams yet and a clear NCAA Tournament team this year. The Temple Owls have too many concerning performances of late to trust them only catching 3 points on the road here. They have losses to both La Salle and George Washington, they only beat St. Joe’s by 3 as 10.5-point favorites, lost to Villanova by 20 as 9.5-point dogs, and barely beat Drexel by 3 last time out as 16-point home favorites. Those efforts show they can’t compete with Georgia. Georgia is 10-2 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the last two seasons. Temple is 1-9 ATS versus teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons. The Owls are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Roll with Georgia Friday. |
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12-22-17 | UAB +7.5 v. Ohio | Top | 6-41 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 43 m | Show |
20* UAB/Ohio Bahamas Bowl No-Brainer on UAB +7.5 The UAB Blazers have gone from not fielding a team the last two years to playing in their first bowl game in 13 seasons. Financial reasons forced them to close the football program after the 2014 season. But fundraising helped bring back the program in 2017, and the fan base has been behind them 100%. Head coach Bill Clark did not leave the program after the 2014 season. He came back and led the Blazers to a school-record 8 wins. They went 8-4 overall and finished 6-2 in Conference USA’s West Division. Now they’ll be playing in their first bowl game since 2004, and it’s safe to say that no team will be more happy to be playing in a bowl this year than them. Clark is deserving of winning Coach of the Year honors, and many speculated that he would leave for greener pastures. But Clark has shown his loyalty to the program by recently signing a five-year extension. That will give the team a huge boost and eliminate any possible distractions. While UAB is happy to be here, I think Ohio is still suffering a hangover effect from losing its final two games of the season. Those losses cost the Bobcats a chance to play for the MAC Championship. They were upset 34-37 at Akron as 15.5-point dogs, and then watched Akron go on to get blown out by Toledo in the MAC Championship and by FAU in the Boca Raton Bowl. The Bobcats also lost 24-31 at Buffalo in the finale. The Bobcats’ ground game is their strength, but that takes a big hit now that leading rusher A.J. Oullette (985 yards, 7 TD) is doubtful with a shoulder injury. That will allow UAB to focus in more on stopping QB Nathan Rourke (877 yards, 21 TD). And UAB only gives up 188 passing yards per game and 51.4% completions this season, so they are equipped to stop Rourke if he decided to air it out more. Head coach Frank Solich hasn’t been very good at pushing the right buttons with players leading up to bowl games. He is 4-9 in his career in bowl games, including 2-6 at Ohio. The Bobcats have lost three straight bowl games, and the opponents haven’t been very good in East Carolina, Appalachian State and Troy. I don’t trust Solich’s ability to regroup this team after such a deflating finish to the season losing out on a chance at a MAC title. Plays against any team (Ohio) off two straight losses to conference rivals, allowing 31 points or more in each, in a game involving two good teams winning 60% to 80% of their games are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Blazers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet UAB in the Bahamas Bowl Friday. |
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12-21-17 | Portland State +5.5 v. California | 106-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +5.5 The Portland State Vikings have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball. They have gone 9-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in their nine lined games. Now they’re catching 5.5 points tonight against a rebuilding California Bears team in a game that they’ll likely win outright. The Vikings’ three losses have all come against very good teams. They lost 81-99 as 24.5-point dogs to Duke, 69-71 as 12-point dogs to Butler, and 84-95 as 13-point road dogs at Oregon. They have beaten Stanford and everyone else they have faced this year. California is just 6-6 with losses to the likes of UC-Riverside (66-74) as 13.5-point favorites at home, Chaminade (72-96) without a line on the road and Central Arkansas (69-96) without a line at home. Those three results right there should show just how poor of shape the Bears are really in this season. California is 0-8 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two seasons. The Bears are 0-9 ATS in home games versus good teams who outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game over the last two years. The Vikings are 9-0 ATS in all games this season. These three trends combine for a perfect 26-0 system backing the Vikings. Roll with Portland State Thursday. |
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12-21-17 | Celtics v. Knicks +3 | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
15* Celtics/Knicks TNT Thursday No-Brainer on New York +3 The Boston Celtics are in an extremely difficult spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days. They haven’t had consecutive days off in the entire month of December. This team is running on fumes right now, and it showed their their 89-90 upset home loss to the Miami Heat. They will also be playing their 8th game in 12 days tonight. I don’t expect much of an effort at all from them tonight. Meanwhile, the Knicks have had two days off since last playing on Monday. And they get a big boosts with he return of Kristaps Porzingis to the lineup tonight after he missed the past two games with a sore knee. The Knicks have been a great beat at home this season, going 14-5 SU & 14-5 ATS inside Madison Square Garden. The Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days’ rest. New York is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Take the Knicks Thursday. |
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12-21-17 | Bulls +10.5 v. Cavs | Top | 112-115 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls +10.5 The Chicago Bulls are now 7-0 since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut seven games ago. He is averaging 19.6 points per game and the bench is playing great. The Bulls are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. They continue to get no respect from oddsmakers as 10.5-point underdogs here. Chicago will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back here after a 112-94 home win over Orlando last night. But that’s not a concern because of their deep bench, and the fact that no player logged more than 29 minutes Wednesday, so the team should be relatively fresh as a whole. The Cars are way overvalued due to winning 18 of their last 20 games. They have gone just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. They aren’t blowing teams out. And now they have their NBA Finals rematch with Golden State on deck on Christmas Day and can’t help but be looking ahead to that huge showdown. The Bulls have had the Cavaliers’ number, going 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. Chicago is 23-7 ATS in its last 30 Thursday games. The Bulls are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Cavaliers are 5-21-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. Bet the Bulls Thursday. |
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12-20-17 | Spurs v. Blazers -2 | Top | 93-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2 The Portland Trail Blazers are on a roll right now and they’re still being undervalued tonight as only 2-point favorites over the San Antonio Spurs. The Blazers are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. While they are just 3-3 SU during this stretch, they have played five of their last six on the road. And their three losses came to Houston (by 7), Golden State (by 7) and Minnesota (by 1), three of the best teams in the NBA. This recent stretch of great play has been possible by the fact that the Blazers have gotten 100% healthy. The Spurs are usually one of the best teams in the NBA, but they won’t be tonight with all the players they’ll be missing due to injury. San Antonio will be without both Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker, plus Danny Green and Kyle Anderson are both banged up as well. They won’t have enough firepower to hang with the Blazers tonight. Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Portland) - after a close loss by 3 points or less against opponent that scored 105 or more points in their previous game are 51-21 (70.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Portland is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with San Antonio. Bet the Blazers Wednesday. |
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12-20-17 | Magic v. Bulls -4.5 | 94-112 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Chicago Bulls -4.5 The Chicago Bulls are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS since Nikola Mirotic made his season debut. They are playing team basketball and I’m going to continue riding them tonight. Mirotic is averaging 23.2 points per game over his past five games. "You can see it in the locker room," Chicago guard Kris Dunn said. "Everybody has a smile, everyone is happy. That's what it's all about. I think the biggest thing, the reason why we are winning is because we are having fun with it. When you are having fun, when you are winning, things (are) a lot smoother.” Now the Bulls get to play the banged-up Orlando Magic, who have lost five straight coming in to fall to 11-20 on the season. They are missing two starters in Evan Fournier and Aaron Gordon, and their 6th man Terrence Ross remains out as well. They simply do not have the talent elsewhere to make up for the losses of these three key players. Chicago has owned Orlando, going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the four wins coming by 22, 47, 32 and 8 points. That 22-point win came earlier this season on November 3rd in Orlando. The Magic are 0-7 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. Orlando is 16-40-2 ATS in its last 58 games following an ATS win. Chicago is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall. Take the Bulls Wednesday. |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 34 h 13 m | Show | |
15* LA Tech/SMU Frisco Bowl ANNIHILATOR on LA Tech +5 The LA Tech Bulldogs are one of the most underrated teams heading into bowl season. That’s because they went just 6-6 this season, but they were better than that record suggests. In fact, three of their losses this season came by a single points, and they went 1-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. But give head coach Skip Holtz and the Bulldogs credit for continuing to fight. They needed to win each of their final two games to get into a bowl, and they did just that with a 42-21 win at UTEP as 16-point favorites, and a 20-6 home win over UTSA as 1-point favorites. This team will clearly be happy to be playing in a ball after the way they fought for it down the stretch. "The competitive nature of this team and the will to fight, that's been consistent all throughout the season." Louisiana Tech senior running back Boston Scott said. "We're going to go out there and play hard -- we know what's at stake. We have to have that single-elimination mindset; it's win or end with a loss. I'm looking forward to seeing this team compete." Holtz has certainly been a coach you want to back in these bowl games. He is 3-0 in bowl games as the head coach at Louisiana Tech. They beat Illinois 35-18 in in the 2014 Heart of Dallas Bowl, topped Arkansas State 47-28 in the 2015 New Orleans Bowl, and then won a wild 48-45 game against Navy in the 2016 Armed Forces bowl. No doubt SMU players were happy to clinch a bowl berth back on October 27th with their 38-34 win over Tulsa. But they struggled down the stretch to stay motivated, going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their final four games overall. They were fortunate to beat Tulane 41-38 as 8-point favorites in their season finale at home as the Green Wave came up inches short of a game-winning TD in the closing seconds. Now I really question the motivation of this team. Head coach Chad Morris has abandoned the team and left for the Arkansas job, and he took a handful of assistants with him. New head coach Sonny Dykes hasn’t had time to install his preferred Air Raid offense, so he will just sit back and let some of the team’s remaining assistants call the game and let his new team play to their strengths. That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, and I just can’t imagine these SMU players being as focused as they normally would be coming into a game. It’s just hard to trust SMU in this game with the way they play defense. They give up 35.5 points, 487 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play on the season. Compare that to LA Tech, which allows 26.7 points, 395 yards per game and 5.8 per play, and it’s easy to see which team has the superior defense in this one. I think that will be the difference in this game, plus the fact that the Bulldogs will be the more focused, motivated team. SMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a close home win by 3 points or less. LA Tech is 8-1 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 200 or more yards per game over the last three seasons. The Mustangs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games. Bet Louisiana Tech Wednesday. |
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12-20-17 | Kings v. Nets -5 | 104-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets -5 The Sacramento Kings are in a very tough spot tonight. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days. Now they are getting too much respect from the books for their upset win over Philadelphia last night, a tired Philly team that was playing the 2nd of a back-to-back itself. The Nets are rested and ready to go as they have had two days off since losing to Indiana on Sunday. They will also be motivated for a victory after going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, which has them undervalued as well. The Nets had gone 10-2 ATS in their previous 12 games and I feel like they are back to being undervalued here. The Kings are 14-25 ATS off a win over the last two seasons. Sacramento is 16-34-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. The Kings are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games on 0 days’ rest. The Nets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents. Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. The Nets are 43-19-2 ATS in their last 64 vs. NBA Pacific Division foes. The Kings are 1-7 ATS in their last eight trips to Brooklyn. Roll with the Nets Wednesday. |
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12-20-17 | Houston -4.5 v. Providence | 70-59 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
15* Houston/Providence ESPNU No-Brainer on Houston -4.5 The Houston Cougars are one of the most underrated teams in the country. Head coach Kelvin Sampson has this team playing at a very high level. They are off to a 9-2 start this season with their two losses coming by 3 and 4 points. They even beat Arkansas 91-65 as 4-point home dogs for their signature win. Providence is struggling against the spread right now due to all their injuries. They are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. They only beat Rider 88-84 as 14-point favorites, lost at Rhode Island 68-75 as 4-point dogs, only beat Brown 77-72 as 18.5-point home favorites, lost at UMass 63-72 as 4.5-point favorites. And there wasn’t even a line in their last game against Stony Brook, and they only won that game 62-60 at home. The Friars' best player Emmitt Holt is out for the season. Both Alpha Diallo (11.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg) and Maliek White (6.1 ppg) are doubtful to play tonight. And their floor general in point guard Kyron Cartwright (9.4 ppg, 6.0 apg) is questionable after suffering an ankle injury in his previous game. They are simply missing too many players right now, which is the reason for their recent struggles. Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or PK (Houston) - an explosive offensive team scoring 76 or more points per game against a good offensive team (74-76 ppg), after scoring 75 points or more in three straight games are 77-38 (67%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. The Friars are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Houston Wednesday. |
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12-19-17 | Cavs v. Bucks +2.5 | 116-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
15* Cavs/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee +2.5 The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a big effort tonight. They have lost three straight coming in and will be highly motivated for a victory. They have also had two days off since a 111-115 loss at Houston as 10.5-point dogs on Saturday, which was as tough as anyone has played the Rockets during their 14-game winning streak. The Cleveland Cavaliers will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days here tonight. They are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 18-1 in their last 19 games overall. But they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall as they have consistently been overvalued. Milwaukee will also be out for revenge after losing each of their first two meetings this season to the Cavaliers. They want to prove they can beat the defending Eastern Conference champs, who are much more vulnerable this season than they have been in year’s past due to trading Kyrie Irving and with all their current injuries. Cleveland is a woeful 5-19 ATS as a favorite this season. Milwaukee is 17-4 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons. It is winning by 6.9 points per game on average in this spot. Take the Bucks Tuesday. |
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12-19-17 | Drake v. South Dakota State OVER 153.5 | Top | 74-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Drake/South Dakota State OVER 153.5 We have the perfect storm for an OVER here with two teams that love to push the tempo in Drake and South Dakota State. Niko Medved has brought his up-tempo system to Drake in his first year hear, and T.J. Otzelberger learned under Fred Hoiberg at Iowa State and has brought that system to South Dakota State. The Jack Rabbits are averaging 83.9 points per game on the season and shooting an impressive 41.4% from 3-point range on 26 attempts per game. They give up 76.1 points per game because of the frenetic pace they play at. The Bulldogs have really improved offensively this season, averaging 79.9 points per game and shooting 41.6% from 3-point range on 25 attempts per game. They have been pretty poor defensively, though, allowing 78.6 points per game on 48.1% shooting. Drake is 7-0 OVER after allowing 85 points or more over the last two seasons. South Dakota State is 13-3 OVER vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons. The OVER is 25-10-1 in Bulldogs last 36 games following a loss. The OVER is 8-2 in Jack Rabbits last 10 games following an ATS loss. The OVER is 40-19-1 in Jack Rabbits last 60 non-conference games. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday. |
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12-19-17 | Belmont +6.5 v. Western Kentucky | 75-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Belmont +6.5 The Belmont Bruins cannot be this big of road underdogs to Western Kentucky given how well they have played on the road this season. And this is a WKU team that returned zero starters from last year and simply isn’t very good. Belmont has road losses to Washington (82-86), Providence (65-66) and TCU (76-87) that show they are capable of beating Western Kentucky. They also have a road win at Middle Tennessee (69-63) as 7-point underdogs and a home win over Vanderbilt (69-60) as 4-point underdogs. Western Kentucky is actually a tired team right now as this will be their 4th game in 9 days, which is a lot when you consider last week was Finals Week. And the Hilltoppers won’t have many fans in attendance at home here with everyone on Spring Break, so the home-court advantage is neutralized. Belmont is 7-0 ATS in road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons. The Bruins are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games overall. The Bruins are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. a team with a winning record. The Hilltoppers are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Ohio Valley opponents. Take Belmont Tuesday. |
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12-19-17 | Akron +23.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 3-50 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
20* Akron/FAU Boca Raton Bowl No-Brainer on Akron +23.5 For starters, this is the biggest spread in college football bowl history. I’ll gladly take the underdog in this situation as this 23.5-point spread has gotten out of hand for a number of reasons. The value is clearly with Akron in the Boca Raton Bowl Tuesday. This is an Akron team that has been underrated for most of the season. Nobody expected them to go to the MAC Championship, but that’s precisely what they did. The key was their 37-34 win over Ohio as 15.5-point underdogs. There was nothing fluky about that win as they outgunned Ohio by 48 yards. I like the fact that in the MAC Championship Game, they could have packed it in when they fell behind big early. But they kept fighting and wound up covering as 20.5-point underdogs in a 28-45 loss to Toledo, which is a better team than Florida Atlantic. The Zips are very happy to be playing in a bowl game and will be motivated to try to pull the upset and finish their season with a winning record. After all, this is only their third bowl game in the history of the program. It’s only their second bowl appearance in the past 11 seasons. They now get to head down to some warm weather in Florida and couldn’t be more excited to be here. I think Florida Atlantic comes in way overvalued after going 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. The betting public has caught on to this team and has driven this line all the way up to 23.5. Their season is a success no matter what happens in this game, because they just won Conference USA with a 41-17 victory over North Texas. They won their conference, and there really isn’t anything more to accomplish. And what is Florida Atlantic’s reward for winning a down Conference USA? They get to play another home game here. The betting public will look at that as a good thing, but I don’t believe it’s a good thing at all. They would much rather travel somewhere to a better destination. These players won’t be excited at all to stay home. Their lack of motivation in this game will make it very difficult to cover this 23.5-point spread in spite of their big talent edge. Akron is 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games this season. Florida Atlantic is 25-42 ATS in its last 67 home games. The Zips are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games versus good rushing teams who average 4.75 or more yards per carry. Akron is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Zips are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Owls are 2-6 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. Plays against home favorites (Florida Atlantic) - an excellent offensive team averaging 6.2 or more yards per play against a defense that gives up 5.6 to 6.2 yards per play after 7-plus games, in non-conference games are 22-5 (81.5%) ATS since 1992. Bet Akron Tuesday. |
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12-19-17 | Marshall +21 v. Xavier | 77-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show | |
15* Marshall/Xavier CBB Early ANNIHILATOR on Marshall +21 The Marshall Thundering Herd are 8-3 this season and Dan D’Antoni, the broker of Mike D’Antoni of the Houston Rockets, has this offense hitting on all cylinders. The Thundering Herd have won four straight coming in and are scoring 90.2 points per game on the season. Marshall is a very difficult team to prepare for, and that will be a problem for a Xavier team that needed to erase a 22-point deficit in the second half to beat lowly East Tennessee State 68-66 on Saturday as 21.5-point favorites. They used a lot of energy to make that comeback, and they have only two days to get ready for Marshall. They also won’t have many fans in attendance with this being Christmas Break. Xavier coach Chris Mack was impressed by what he saw on film from the Thundering Herd. "I love the way they play offense," he said. "Elmore is a special player. He's as adept shooting threes as he is getting to the foul line. He's surrounded by some really skilled personnel." "We have a lot of respect for Marshall," Mack said. "They do a great job of spacing the floor and playing with space. They are difficult to prepare for. It's a big challenge.” Marshall is 9-2 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread over the past two seasons. The Thundering Herd are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Big East opponents. I think the Musketeers find themselves in another battle they don’t want to be in tonight. Roll with Marshall Tuesday. |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 47.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 37 m | Show |
25* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Falcons/Bucs OVER 47.5 The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Bucs should easily combine for enough points to sail over this 47.5-point total Monday night. After all, they have played in some big-time shootouts in all meetings over the past two seasons. I don’t expect anything to change with perfect weather expected for Tampa on Monday night. It’s supposed to by 79 degrees with 5-10 MPH winds and a 10% chance of ran as of this writing. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings over the past two seasons with combined scores of 55, 71 and 54 points. That’s an average of 60 combined points per game, which is 12.5 points more than this 47.5-point total. And that 71-point effort came last year in Tampa Bay. None of those results were fluky either as both teams have been able to move the ball at will against one another. Atlanta has averaged 33.7 points and 450.3 yards per game in the three meetings. Tampa Bay has averaged 26.3 points and 380 yards per game in the three meetings. I think the fact that Atlanta has played two straight unders against two great defensive teams in New Orleans and Minnesota is keeping this line lower than it should be. But the Falcons should have no problem getting back going offensively this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Atlanta still has an elite offense that ranks 3rd in the NFL In yards per play (6.0) despite the media perceiving their offense as down this year. Tampa Bay ranks 31st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 389.3 yards per game. The Bucs also rank dead last in yards per play defense, giving up 6.1 yards per play. They are missing several key players on defense, including arguably their best defender in DT Gerald McCoy, who is out with a biceps injury. James Winston returned against the Packers two weeks ago and has actually had no problem moving the ball. The Bucs racked up 395 total yards against the Packers and 410 against the Lions and arguably should have won both games. But the lost in overtime to the Packers and fell by a field goal to the Lions only because they committed five turnovers against Detroit. They have also found a running game, rushing for 165 yards against the Packers and 133 against the Lions. Tampa Bay is 6-0 OVER after allowing 7 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 8-1 OVER after allowing 6 or more yards per play in their previous game over the last two years. The Falcons are 10-2 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. Atlanta is 10-0-1 OVER in its last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. The OVER is 5-1 in Falcons last six Monday night games. Bet the OVER in this game Monday. |
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12-18-17 | 76ers v. Bulls +2.5 | 115-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +2.5 Since Nikola Mirotic returned to the Bulls’ lineup on December 8th, they have gone a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS. They have beaten Charlotte and Milwaukee on the road, and New York, Boston and Utah at home. They were underdogs in all five games, and they continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as home dogs tonight. Mirotic has led the way in averaging 25 points in his past three games and is the team’s leading scorer on the season. The 76ers are in a hangover spot here off a triple-overtime loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Joel Embiid suffered a back injury in that game, but played all three overtimes. He will now sit out this game to rest, as will Trevor Booker. The 76ers aren’t nearly the same team without Embiid. They have lost five of their last six games overall coming in. Philadelphia is 24-39 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons. Chicago is 25-9 ATS vs. good rebounding teams out-rebounding their opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three years. The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Bulls are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Chicago is 12-2 ATS In its last 14 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Roll with the Bulls Monday. |
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12-18-17 | Celtics -2 v. Pacers | 112-111 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2 The Boston Celtics have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season at 25-7. Getting them as only 2-point road favorites over the Indiana Pacers is a nice bargain tonight, especially considering the tough spot the Pacers are in. Indiana will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 109-97 win in Brooklyn on Sunday. The Pacers will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 4th game in 6 days. The Celtics had yesterday off and will be re-energized here after beating the Grizzlies 102-93 on the road Saturday. The Celtics have owned the Pacers, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. All four wins came by 6 points or more, and most of those came against better Pacers teams that had Paul George. This is a better Celtics team this season as Kyrie Irving and this young talent have really played at a high level all year. Boston is 11-0 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 46% of their shots or better this season. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in road games when the total is 200 to 209.5 this season. Boston is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 road games overall. Indiana is 14-30-1 ATS in its last 45 games when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. Take the Celtics Monday. |
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12-17-17 | Cavs v. Wizards | 106-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
15* Cavs/Wizards NBA Sunday No-Brainer on Washington PK The Washington Wizards just recently got back John Wall from injury. It’s no surprise they have won their two games since his return. And now they’re going to want to make a statement against the Cleveland Cavaliers, letting them know they are coming for them this season. And now the Cavaliers are ripe for the picking. They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days, as well as their 6th game in 10 days. The Cars were already short-handed without Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert, and now both Tristan Thompson and Dwyane Wade are expected to rest. The Cavs are short on numbers and won’t have much left in the tank tonight. Plays against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Cleveland) after two or more consecutive wins, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 72-37 (66.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win. Take the Wizards Sunday. |
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12-17-17 | Titans v. 49ers -2 | Top | 23-25 | Push | 0 | 149 h 19 m | Show |
25* NFL West Coast GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco 49ers -2 I’ve backed the 49ers with success in each of Jimmy Garoppolo’s first two starts. I’m not about to buck them now as I think they are still being undervalued as only 2-point home favorites over the Tennessee Titans. The 49ers have new life under Garoppolo, and they are treating this like a separate season. They are 2-0 in this new season. The 49ers won Garoppolo’s first start 15-14 at Chicago as 2.5-point underdogs. That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed. They outgained the Bears by 241 yards and should have won by a lot more. But they had red zone struggles with penalties and critical mistakes that had them settling for five field goals. Then last week the 49ers went into Houston and won 26-16 as 1-point road underdogs. They outgained the Texans by 105 yards in that contest. Garoppolo threw for 334 yards and a touchdown in the win. The 49ers put up 416 total yards a week after amassing 388 total yards against a good Bears defense. This is a completely new offense with Garoppolo, a much more dynamic one that is undervalued. The fact that the offense can actually move the ball and score points has the defense rejuvenated. And boy, is this defense playing well. The 49ers have one of the better front sevens in the league defensively, and they are showing it lately. San Francisco has given up just 229 total yards per game in their last two contests against the Bears and Texans. The Titans are the single-most overrated team in the NFL. They are a fraudulent 8-5 and are not a playoff team. They have actually been outscored by 21 points on the season despite that 8-5 record. They are also getting outgained on the season as their numbers just aren’t very good. Tennessee really only has one win by more than one score this season. That’s because I don’t count their wins over the Colts and Texans earlier where Derrick Henry ran for 70-plus yards for touchdowns in the final seconds when they were just trying to run out the clock. Both runs he could have gone down and the game would have been over. It led to brutal bad beats if you were on the Colts or Texans in those two games. The Titans lost 7-12 at Arizona last week. Marcus Mariota looks broken, and the running game cannot get going. The Titans managed just 204 total yards in the loss. Mariota went 16-of-31 passing for 159 yards and two interceptions. He hurt his knee early and played through it, and that could be an issue again this week. The Titans have been held to 92 or fewer rushing yards in seven of their last 10 games. They just haven’t been able to run the ball like they did last year, and they won’t be able to against this stout San Francisco front seven, either. San Francisco is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 home games off an upset win as a road underdog. The Titans are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games. Tennessee is 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Mike Mularkey is 4-14 ATS as an underdog as the coach of Tennessee. Bet the 49ers Sunday. |
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12-17-17 | Patriots v. Steelers +3 | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 80 h 30 m | Show | |
15* Patriots/Steelers AFC ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh +3 The Pittsburgh Steelers are ready to turn the corner against the New England Patriots and exorcise their demons. The Patriots have owned them, including their 36-17 win in the AFC Championship Game. But Le’Veon Bell was hurt on the first drive of that game and did not return. Now the three B’s are all healthy and are the only 3,000-yard, 1,000-yard, 1,000-yard trio in the NFL up to this point. And the Steelers are remarkably healthy as a whole. They get JuJu Smith-Schuster back from suspension this week, and CB Joe Haden could make his return this week as well. The only real significant loss is LB Ryan Shazier, and while that is a big loss, there’s no question the Steelers are the more healthy team. The Patriots are banged up everywhere, but mostly along the defensive front seven. They have played without both Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy in recent weeks, and Alan Branch was injured against Miami and forced to leave the game. All three players are highly questionable, leaving the Patriots short of pass rushers, which is why they signed Ricky Jean Francois this week. Van Noy, Flowers and Branch are three of the most important players on defense. They could not get any pressure on Jay Cutler last week. Their task gets even tougher this week against a Steelers offense that just put up 545 total yards against a very good Ravens defense last week. Big Ben three for 506 yards and two touchdowns in the win. The Steelers are the definition of an elite team. They are outgaining their opponents by 77 yards per game on the season. They have outgained 11 of their 13 opponents this year. This is an awful spot for the Patriots. They will be playing their 3rd straight road game, and their 5th road game in the past 6 weeks. That’s about as tough of a situation as any NFL team can be in. Plus, they will now be working on a short week having played the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. I think the Steelers will be the fresher, more motivated team this week and that will greatly aid them in pulling off the upset victory. This line suggests the Patriots would be 6-point favorites on a neutral and 9-point favorites at home when you factor in home-field advantage, so that fact alone shows there’s value on the Steelers as I would back them at both of those lines. Having a healthy Bell will be key in exploiting the biggest weakness of the Patriots, which is stopping the run. The Patriots actually give up 5.0 yards per carry this season, which is the worst mark in the NFL. Expect a monster game from a motivated Bell who wants to prove that he was the difference as to why they lost in the AFC Championship Game last year. Pittsburgh is 7-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses that allow 4.5 or more rushing yards per carry in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Steelers are 40-20 ATS in their last 60 games vs. a team with a winning percentage of 75% or more. Pittsburgh is 19-6-2 ATS in its last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. Mike Tomlin is 7-0 ATS in home games after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points as the coach of Pittsburgh. Roll with the Steelers Sunday. |
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12-17-17 | Kings v. Raptors UNDER 206 | 93-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show | |
15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Kings/Raptors UNDER 206 The UNDER is almost always a good bet in the situation that the Kings and Raptors are in today. These teams just played each other on December 10th just seven days ago. They are extremely familiar with each other because of it, and familiarity favors defense. The Kings are one of the slowest teams in the NBA. They rank 28th in pace at 96.8 possessions per game. And now they are expected to be without lighting-quick point guard De’Aaron Fox, who is doubtful with a quad injury. The only time they push the pace is when he’s in, but now they will be even slower than usual without him. Toronto just beat Sacramento 102-87 for 189 combined points last Sunday. Now they’ve set the total at 206, which is 17 points higher. It’s clear that there’s value with the UNDER. Not to mention, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings. The last four meetings have seen 189, 201, 187 and 198 combined points, which is an average of just 193.8 combined points per game. That’s also 12 points less than this 206-point total. The UNDER is 5-0 in Kings last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The UNDER is 15-7 in Kings last 22 Sunday games. The UNDER is 4-0 in Raptors last four Sunday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday. |
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12-17-17 | Ravens v. Browns +7 | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 92 h 20 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Browns +7 You have to have some seriously thick skin if you’ve backed the Cleveland Browns and continued to do so this season. They are just 3-10 ATS on the year, but could easily be 10-3 ATS instead. There have been eight ATS losses where they had a chance to cover in the closing seconds and haven’t gotten the job done. It happened again last week as they led by 14 in the 4th quarter against the Packers, but ended up losing by 6 in overtime. So even backers who had Cleveland +3 couldn’t even get a push, even though it was the right side the entire game until the final play. But I think the value is with the Browns as 7-point home underdogs this week to the Ravens. When you’re getting 7 points, it means you can’t lose in overtime. The Browns are clearly way better than their 0-13 record. They have the stats of a 6-7 or 5-8 team. They are only getting outgained by 17 yards per game on the season and 0.2 yards per play. We saw the Browns fight down the stretch last year to avoid a winless this season. I think they’ll do the same this season, especially since a win wouldn’t cost them the No. 1 pick considering every other team in the NFL has at least two wins. Statistically, the Ravens have been a worse team than the Browns. They rank worse in total offense and total defense. They are getting outgained by 31 yards per game on the season and 0.4 yards per play. I question the fight the Ravens will have this week after their deflating 39-38 loss to Pittsburgh last week. They blew a double-digit lead to their biggest rivals, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they have a ‘hangover’ effect from hat defeat. Big Ten threw for over 500 yards against Baltimore’s defense last week. It’s clear that the loss of Jimmy Smith is a big one for the Ravens as the Steelers did whatever they wanted to through the air. The Browns now have two legitimate weapons at receiver to exploit the Ravens. Corey Coleman is back healthy now, and Josh Gordon has returned from suspension and has been a huge factor already in the passing game. This Cleveland offense has a ton of potential moving forward. Cleveland has outgained Baltimore in four of the last five meetings in this series, including a 386-337 yard edge in their first meeting this year. The Ravens won that game 24-10, but only due to five turnovers by the Browns. The Browns had multiple chances to cover as 7.5-point dogs, but kept turning the ball over deep in Baltimore territory. Now Baltimore is basically an identical 7-point favorite in the rematch. Flipping home field should be a 6-point difference, which would mean Baltimore would be a 1.5-point favorite based on the 7.5-point spread in the first meeting. I think there’s value on the Browns at +7 because of this. The Ravens may win, but it won’t be by more than a touchdown. Baltimore is 0-6 ATS off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons. The Ravens are 1-8 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last three years. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (25% or less) after 8-plus games are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Take the Browns Sunday. |
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12-16-17 | Mavs v. Spurs UNDER 198 | 96-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Mavs/Spurs UNDER 198 I love betting the UNDER in this spot. The Mavs and Spurs just played each other on Tuesday with the Mavs winning 95-89 at home. So these teams are very familiar with one another, and now they’ll be playing each other just five days later. This situation always favors the defenses and the UNDER. This has been a low-scoring series between the Mavs and Spurs anyway. They have combined for 191 or fewer points in six of their last eight meetings. They have averaged just 193.4 combined points per game in those eight meetings, which is roughly 5 points less than tonight’s posted total of 198. The Spurs will be without their best player in Kawhi Leonard as he gets a night of rest in this back-to-back situation. The Mavs will be without starting point guard Dennis Smith Jr., who is arguably their best player and scorer as well. These injuries will help aid this UNDER. The UNDER is 13-3-1 in Mavs last 17 Saturday games. The UNDER is 8-2 in Mavs last 10 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 8-1 in Spurs last nine when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday. |
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12-16-17 | Thunder v. Knicks +3 | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on New York Knicks +3 The Oklahoma City Thunder just played a triple-overtime game against the Philadelphia 76ers last night. It’s safe to say they won’t have anything left in the tank today, especially since all five starters played basically the entire 15 minutes of overtime. Russell Westbrook played 52 minutes, Steven Adams 51, Paul George 45, Carmelo Anthony 47 and Andre Roberson 34. The Knicks will be motivated for the Anthony reunion to prove that they are a better team without him. They will also be rested after having yesterday off. The Knicks are 13-5 SU & 13-5 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points per game on average. They have been one of the most profitable teams to bet at home this season. Plays against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (Oklahoma City) - off a road win by 3 points or less, when playing the 2nd of a back-to-back are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Thunder are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games, and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference foes. Bet the Knicks Saturday. |
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12-16-17 | Bears +6 v. Lions | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 112 h 38 m | Show |
20* Bears/Lions NFC North GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago +6 The Chicago Bears have played nine straight games with Mitchell Trubisky as their starting quarterback. They have only lost one game by more than 8 points, and that came on the road against the juggernaut that is the Philadelphia Eagles. So they have been competitive in eight of their nine games. And now they are catching 6 points on the road against the Detroit Lions this week. Trubisky is coming off his best game of the season. He completed 25-of-32 passes for 271 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing for a score in a 33-7 win at Cincinnati as 6-point dogs. The Bears also rushed for 232 yards as a team and racked up a season-high 482 yards in the win. Another one of the Bears’ best offensive performances this year came a few weeks ago on November 19th in a 24-27 home loss to the Detroit Lions. The Bears actually outgunned the Lions 398 to 352 in that contest and arguably should have won. They rushed for 222 yards on that Lions defense. Now they will want revenge only a few weeks later, and I think they have a great chance to pull the upset as the offense continues to click against an awful Detroit defense. The Lions aren’t the type of team used to blowing teams out, which is what it’s going to take to cover this 6-point spread. And their defense is not good enough to be favored this heavily. The Lions rank 27th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 363.3 yards per game and 5.7 yards per play. They needed five turnovers last week just to beat the hapless Bucs 24-21. What makes the Bears so underrated is that their defense is very good, and they have a strong running game. The Bears rank 11th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 325.5 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play. They rank 7th in rushing offense, averaging 124.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry. The Lions are 20th against the run, giving up 116.3 yards per game and 4.2 per carry. They have allowed an average of 158.6 rushing yards per game in their last five contests. This head-to-head series has been extremely tight in recent meetings. In fact, each of the last six meetings between the Lions and Bears have been decided by 6 points or fewer. Each of the last five have been decided by 4 points or less. That fact alone just shows the kind of line value we are getting with the Bears catching 6 points here Saturday. Detroit is 29-51 ATS in its last 80 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Plays against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Detroit) after a game where they forced 5 or more turnovers against an opponent off a game where they committed no turnovers are 23-5 (82.1%) ATS since 1983. Bet the Bears Saturday. |
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12-16-17 | Oklahoma v. Wichita State -7.5 | 91-83 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
15* Oklahoma/Wichita State CBB No-Brainer on Wichita State -7.5 The Wichita State Shockers are ranked No. 3 in the country thanks to their 8-1 start and their five returning starters from last year. They have played the gauntlet, facing the likes of Cal, Marquette, Notre Dame, Baylor and Oklahoma State with all five of those games either on a neutral or on the road. Now they get Oklahoma at home in one of the most hostile arenas in college basketball. And I think this Oklahoma team is way overrated and doesn’t have a real good victory to its name yet. USC and Oregon are both down, and they lost tot he best team they have faced in Arkansas 83-92. Now the Shockers will be the best team they have played yet, and it will actually be their first true road game of the season. I don’t expect this young Sooners team led by freshman Trae Young to be able to handle this situation very well at all. Oklahoma is 0-8 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Sooners are 1-9 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in five straight games over the last three seasons. The Shockers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. Roll with Wichita State Saturday. |
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12-16-17 | North Texas v. Troy -6.5 | Top | 30-50 | Win | 100 | 68 h 23 m | Show |
20* North Texas/Troy 2017 Bowl Season Opener on Troy -6.5 The Troy Trojans are 10-2 this season. Their only losses came to Boise State and South Alabama. The Boise State loss was on the road and they were in it the entire way, and the South Alabama loss was a letdown spot following the biggest win in program history at LSU the previous week. Both losses were understandable. This is a Troy team that is loaded with seniors. They will be motivated to win their 11th game and end their careers on top with a win in the New Orleans Bowl. And I certainly believe they are far and away the better team in this matchup with North Texas. This is a North Texas team that was extremely fortunate to post a 9-4 record this year. The Mean Green went 5-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Every time they took a step up in class, they were blown out, and this is a step up as well. They lost by 22 at SMU, by 17 at Iowa, by 38 at Florida Atlantic and by 24 to FAU in the C-USA Championship. They trailed that game 34-0 before getting some garbage time scores. Since that loss to South Alabama, Troy has gone 6-0 with five of those wins coming by 7 points or more. They are playing well and will be the superior team at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. They give up just 3.0 yards per carry on defense, and they average 4.8 yards per carry on offense. North Texas hasn’t been able to run the ball since losing arguably their best player in running back Jeffery Wilson. He was hurt in the Army game in their 11th game of the season. Wilson has rushed for 1,215 yards and accounted for 16 total touchdowns. The Mean Green managed just 81 rushing yards on 35 carries against Florida Atlantic in the C-USA title game. They are one-dimensional now, which will make the task much easier for Troy in this game. Another big difference in this game is on the defensive side of the ball. Troy has one of the better defenses in the country, giving up just 17.5 points per game and 4.9 yards per play on the season. North Texas is one of the worst defensive teams, giving up 33.8 points pre game and 5.9 yards per play. That’s more than a 16-point difference. The Trojans have a coaching edge in this game. Troy defensive coordinator Vic Koenning held the same title at North Carolina when North Texas head coach Seth Littrell was the offensive coordinator of the Tar Heels. The Trojans will be prepared for what they’re going to face defensively Saturday. "He's a really good friend of mine. I respect what he's done," Brown said of Littrell. "Vic's got an understanding of who Seth is and what he's about.” "I really like what those guys do on offense, so I've watched them quite a bit as the years have gone on," Brown said of North Texas. "I've got a good feel for what they're trying to do offensively. The Fine kid ... they recruited him hard here at Troy. He's doing a really good job." Plays on neutral field favorites (Troy) after allowing 8 or more yards per passing attempt last game, with 8 offensive starters returning are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS since 1992. North Texas is 1-9 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last three seasons. The Mean Green are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play. Neal Brown is 13-3 ATS in Saturday road games as the coach of Troy. The Trojans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. at team with a winning record. Bet Troy in the New Orleans Bowl Saturday. |
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12-15-17 | Pelicans v. Nuggets +1 | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Denver Nuggets +1 The Denver Nuggets have actually been able to sustain success despite the losses of their two best players in Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap in recent weeks. But they don’t have to play without both any longer as Jokic is expected to make his return from an ankle injury tonight. The Pelicans haven’t won back-to-back games since November 22-24. They have gone just 4-6 since and are coming off a 115-108 home victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday. Now they’ll be playing their 4th game in 6 days and their 9th game in 15 days. This is a tired team right now. The Nuggets are going to want revenge from a 123-114 road loss at New Orleans on December 6th just over a week ago. The Nuggets won their three previous meetings with the Pelicans, including blowout home wins by 32 and 16 points. They should not be home underdogs here tonight. The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Denver is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 Friday games. The Pelicans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Denver. Bet the Nuggets Friday. |
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12-15-17 | Hawks v. Grizzlies UNDER 198 | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Grizzlies UNDER 198 Nothing has changed with the grit ’n grind Memphis Grizzlies this season. They are still a team that cannot score the ball, but they lay it on the line defensively every night. Of course, it hurts that they lost their best player in PG Mike Conley, and they are also playing without Wayne Selden and Brandan Wright, and possibly Tyreke Evans tonight. The UNDER is 10-4 in Grizzlies last 14 games overall. They have failed to score more than 95 points in 11 of those 14 games. But they have given up 100 or fewer in seven of those. Now they face a tired Hawks team that will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 7 days tonight. Don’t expect them to try and get up and down the floor with any kind of tempo tonight. The Grizzlies rank 30th in the NBA in pace at 95.7 possessions per game, and they’ll control the tempo playing at home here tonight. Memphis ranks 27th in offensive efficiency while Atlanta is 21st. So it will be a slow tempo between two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, which is a perfect recipe for an UNDER. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams. They have combined for 197 or fewer points in six of those seven meetings. They are averaging just 186.4 combined points per game in those seven meetings, which is nearly 12 points less than tonight’s posted total of 198. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday. |
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12-15-17 | Thunder v. 76ers -1.5 | 119-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
15* Thunder/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia -1.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the most overrated team in the NBA to this point. They are just 13-14 SU & 8-18 ATS, including 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS on the road. They have gone just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The problem with the Thunder is that in trading for Carmelo Anthony and Paul George, they traded away all their depth. Their bench is awful, and Anthony has proven to be a cancer in Oklahoma City just like he was in New York. The 76ers will be hungry for a victory after losing four of their last five coming in. They have had two days off to get ready for the Thunder after last playing on Tuesday. They are almost fully healthy now as the only player they will be missing tonight Is Markelle Fultz. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series. The 76ers are 20-4 ATS off two consecutive non-conference games over the past two seasons. Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS vs. teams who average 9 or more steals per game over the last two seasons. The Thunder are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win. The 76ers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games playing on two days’ rest. Philadelphia is 42-16-1 ATS in its last 59 vs. Western Conference opponents. Take the 76ers Friday. |
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12-14-17 | Broncos -2 v. Colts | Top | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 66 h 45 m | Show |
20* Broncos/Colts AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Denver -2 The Denver Broncos are just 4-9 this season, but they have the statistics of a team that should be sitting with a winning record and in the playoff hunt. That is why they are undervalued right now, and I think we are getting a discount on them here Thursday as only 2-point road favorites over the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are 3-10 this season and they have the statistics of a team that would be 3-10. They are right where they should be. They are clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL, and that has shown with four consecutive losses and seven losses in their last eight games. They aren’t going to win this game, either. The Broncos are actually outgaining their opponents by 32 yards per game on the season. They are led by a defense that ranks 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 280.5 yards per game. They are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play defense, giving up only 4.7 yards per play. They are 22nd in total offense at 312.1 yards per game. Not great, but way better than the Colts. The Colts are getting outgained by 85 yards per game, which is far and away the worst mark in the NFL. They rank 30th in total defense (375.3 yards/game) and 30th in yards per play (5.9) defense. They are 31st in total offense (290.7 yards/game) and 32nd in yards per play (4.6) offense. I think the short week actually hurts the Colts more. They have to travel back home from the snow fest in Buffalo in which they lost 13-7 in the final minutes of overtime. That game had to take a lot out of them, and don’t be surprised if many of these Colts players come down with illnesses after having to play in the elements. This is a dome team not used to having to go outdoors and play in the snow like that. Meanwhile, the Broncos made easy work of the Jets 23-0 last week. They limited the Jets to just 100 total yards in the win. It helped that they got Aqib Talib back. After spending little energy to put away the Jets, the Broncos should still be fresh. That’s key with this short week. That effort also shows that the Broncos have not quit on their season. The Colts will be without starting center Ryan Kelly, wide receiver Donte Moncrief, slot corner Nate Hairston and cornerback Rahsaan Melvin against the Broncos. The Kelly injury is huge because he is their best offensive lineman. No quarterback has been sacked more than Jacoby Brissett this year. That makes this a great matchup for the Broncos, who are excellent at getting after opposing quarterbacks. Plays on road teams (Denver) a slow starting team that is outscored by 5-plus points in the first half, after allowing 6 points or fewer last game are 25-6 (80.6%) ATS since 1983. Indianapolis is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 home games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games. The Broncos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games. Bet the Broncos Thursday. |
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12-14-17 | Kings +10.5 v. Wolves | 96-119 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Sacramento Kings +10.5 The Minnesota Timberwolves have been an overvalued commodity this season due to the signing of Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague. They are consistently laying prices that they cannot handle, and I think that’s the case again here tonight as double-digit favorites over the Kings. The Timberwolves are just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They are a mediocre 16-12 SU on the season as well. They are only outscoring the opposition by 0.6 points per game on the season, including just 2.2 points per game at home. They aren’t blowing out teams on the regular. The Kings have been a nice money-maker for backers over the past three weeks. They have been flying under the radar, going 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They have three upset victories during this stretch, including a road win at Golden State as 12.5-point dogs. The Kings are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings with the Timberwolves, winning twice outright as underdogs. Sacramento is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference opponents. The Kings are 4-0-2 ATS in their last six road games. The Timberwolves are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight home games. Roll with the Kings Thursday. |
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12-14-17 | Knicks v. Nets -1 | 111-104 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Brooklyn Nets -1 The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They have gone 11-15 SU & 17-9 ATS while being one of the most profitable teams to back. Now they just have to win to cover at home tonight against the Knicks, and I think they get the job done. The Knicks have been a great team to back at home, but a terrible one on the road. They are just 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS on the highway this season. They are getting outscored by a whopping 11.8 points per game on the road too, scoring just 97.2 on average and giving up 109.0 per game. The Nets are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Brooklyn is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. New York is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take the Nets Thursday. |
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12-13-17 | Portland State +15 v. Oregon | 84-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland State +15 The Portland State Vikings are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have opened 8-2 SU and a perfect 8-0 ATS in their eight lined games. Now they are catching 15 points from a rebuilding Oregon team that has no business laying this kind of number. Portland State’s two losses this season came to Duke (81-99) as 24.5-point underdogs on a neutral and Butler (69-71) as 12-point dogs on a neutral. The Vikings have pulled outright upsets over UC-Riverside, Utah State, Stanford, Loyola-Marymount and Santa Clara with four of those wins coming on the road. This team just continues to lack the respect they deserve. Oregon is just 7-3 SU & 4-5 ATS on the season. The Ducks returned just one starter from last year. They have been upset by UConn and Boise State, and they also lost to Oklahoma by 10. Their 74-68 win over Texas Southern as 20-point home favorites on Monday was also a concerning result. Now they have had just one day to get ready for Portland State. The Vikings are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. The Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Oregon is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. The Vikings are 7-0 ATS as an underdog this season. Roll with Portland State Wednesday. |
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12-13-17 | Raptors v. Suns +11.5 | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +11.5 The Phoenix Suns have been playing without Devin Booker, but they have actually been competitive without him. They have lost their last three games without him, but they were all by 10 points or less to Washington (by 10), San Antonio (by 3) and Sacramento (by 7). I think they get the cover with ease tonight against a Toronto Raptors team that is getting too much respect for its 6-1 run. But those seven games have come against the lines of Atlanta, Charlotte, Indiana, Phoenix, Memphis, Sacramento and the LA Clippers. They have feasted on an easy schedule, and they cannot be laying 11.5 points on the road here. The Suns simply have the Raptors’ number. They have gone 6-3 SU and a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last 10 meetings. They covered as 14.5-point road dogs in a 13-point loss on December 5th, and they will want revenge just a week later here catching 11.5 points at home. The Suns are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. Phoenix is 7-2 ATS in its last nine vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Suns are 20-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 60% to 70% over the last three seasons. Take the Suns Wednesday. |
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12-13-17 | Blazers v. Heat -2.5 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
20* NBA Wednesday No Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -2.5 The Miami Heat are rested right now, which has led to back-to-back blowout wins over Brooklyn (101-89) in Mexico City and Memphis (107-82) on the road. The Heat will be playing just their 4th game in 10 days tonight. Now they host a Portland Trail Blazers team that has really been struggling. The Blazers are 0-5 in their last five five games overall despite playing four of those five games at home. They lost at Golden State on Monday, and it’s always tough to get back up after playing the defending champs. I certainly don’t like the spot for the Blazers here. The Blazers have played their last two games without two key pieces in center Just Nurkic and small forward Maurice Harkless. Both Nurkic and Harmless are questionable to return tonight. The Heat have proven they can still play great basketball without Hassan Whiteside, who is expected to be out until the end of December with a bone bruise in his knee. The Blazers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss. The Heat are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. Western Conference opponents. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Miami is 22-11 ATS off two consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons. Bet the Heat Wednesday. |
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12-12-17 | Wizards v. Nets +4.5 | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Brooklyn Nets +4.5 The Washington Wizards have played their last eight games without John Wall, who may return Wednesday against Memphis. But he’s out again tonight, and they are just 4-4 without him. They shouldn’t be favored on the road here against the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season. They have gone 10-15 SU & 16-9 ATS. They have been competitive in most games. They have one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and that depth is what is allowing them to hang with teams that they aren’t expected to. The Nets also are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA. They are averaging 108.6 points per game overall, including 113.7 points per game at home. And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings. The Nets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Brooklyn is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games following a loss. Washington is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Brooklyn is rested and is 48-26 ATS in its last 74 games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days. The Nets are a perfect 8-0 ATS versus good offensive teams who score 106 or more points per game this season. Take the Nets Tuesday. |
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12-12-17 | Hawks +11.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks +11.5 The Cleveland Cavaliers are grossly overrated right now due to winning 14 of their last 15 games overall. They are being asked to lay big numbers that they just can’t cover consistently. They are just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games despite this recent run of straight up wins. Now the Cavs are up against an Atlanta hawks team that has given them fits. The Hawks are 1-1 SU & 2-0 ATS in their two meetings with the Cavs this season. They won 117-115 as 11-point road dogs in Cleveland on November 5th, and only lost 114-121 as 7.5-point home dogs on November 30th. The Hawks are 4-3 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Cleveland overall. Atlanta comes in flying way under the radar. The Hawks have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Their only ATS loss came in a tough spot in a home-and-home situation with the Brooklyn Nets. They had beaten Brooklyn on the road two nights earlier, then predictably fell flat in the rematch. The Cavs could be without Kevin Love tonight, who is questionable. They are already without Isaiah Thomas, Derrick Rose and Iman Shumpert. And John Collins could make his return from a shoulder injury tonight for the Hawks. Plays against any team (Cleveland) after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss. The Cavs are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Cleveland is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 home games. Bet the Hawks Tuesday. |
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12-12-17 | Columbia +12 v. Boston College | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Columbia +12 Off their shocking 89-84 upset win as 15-point underdogs to Duke on Saturday, the Boston College Eagles are in a massive letdown spot tonight against Columbia. They won’t show up at all, and don’t be surprised if they lose outright. But I certainly love getting Columbia as 12-point dogs in this spot. This is the same Boston College team that lost by 11 to Texas Tech, by 22 to Providence and by 9 to Nebraska. It’s also a BC team that only beat Colgate 83-79 in its previous home game before beating Duke. Go figure. Columbia is much better than its 1-9 record would indicate. This team has simply had brutal luck in close games, losing seven times by 10 points or less. The two exceptions? A 15-point road loss as 25.5-point dogs at Villanova and a 14-point road loss as 13.5-point dogs at Penn State. That effort against Villanova alone shows that this team is more than capable of hanging with Boston College on the road tonight. Columbia is 54-31 ATS in its last 85 games as a dog of 10 points or more. Columbia is 32-10 ATS in its last 42 games as a road dog of 6.5 to 12 points. Boston College is 9-24 ATS in its last 33 home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game. The Eagles are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. teams who allow 45% or more shooting to opponents. The Lions are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a loss. The Eagles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Roll with Columbia Tuesday. |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins +11.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 97 h 58 m | Show |
20* Patriots/Dolphins ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Miami +11.5 The New England Patriots are in a tough spot here. They know that their game against Pittsburgh next week will decide which team gets home-field advantage in the AFC. Even a well-coached team like the Patriots can’t help but look ahead to a game like that. They can afford to lose this game to the Dolphins, because no matter what happens this week, the game next week against the Steelers is for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Now the Patriots have to play a team that they just beat 35-17 two weeks ago in the Dolphins. They probably feel like they can just show up and win this week. But it won’t be that easy as the Dolphins will come to play against their biggest rivals, and they’ll want to exact some revenge. And this time around the Dolphins will have Jay Cutler instead of Matt Moore. Say what you want about Cutler, but he has actually played pretty well for the Dolphins this season. He is completing 63.9% of his passes with a 15-to-11 TD/INT ratio. He is coming off a great game against a good pass Denver defense. He threw for 235 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Dolphins to a 35-9 win over the Broncos. The defense limited the Broncos to just 270 total yards and continues to play pretty well this season. This is a Dolphins defense that is giving up just 20.8 points, 286 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home this season. Their job just got a lot easier when it was announced earlier this week that Tom Brady’s favorite target in Rob Gronkowski will be suspended for this game due to a late hit against Buffalo. Gronk had nine receptions for 147 yards against the Bills last week. He had five receptions for 82 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins two weeks ago, so his loss is huge for the Patriots. Home-field advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings. The Dolphins have actually won three of their last four home meetings with the Patriots outright. The home team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Miami. What also makes this a tough spot for the Patriots is that they will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks, and their 5th in 6 weeks next week against the Steelers. The Dolphins are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Miami is 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Dolphins Monday. |
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12-11-17 | Hornets v. Thunder -6.5 | 116-103 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 The Oklahoma City Thunder are starting to play better. They have won four of their last five games overall. But they are actually 0-8 ATS in their last eight games, so they are not living up to expectations from oddsmakers. I think that has them undervalued now as only 6.5-point favorites against the Hornets. Paul George has sat out the last two games, but he is expected to return for this contest against the Charlotte Hornets. They blew a 16-point lead to the Nets in their first game without him. Then they came back from 20 points down to beat the Grizzlies in overtime. I think having him back in the lineup will be a huge boost tonight. Meanwhile, the Charlotte Hornets are really struggling. They are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall. They have lost back-to-back home games to the Bulls and Lakers. They have a laundry list of injuries they are dealing with right now, too. Nic Batum (elbow), Frank Kaminsky (ankle) and Jeremy Lamb (ankle) are all questionable, while Cody Zeller (knee) is out. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Oklahoma City) after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last 10 games against an opponent after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games are 34-10 (77.3%) ATS since 1996. Oklahoma City is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Hornets are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 trips to Oklahoma City. Take the Thunder Monday. |
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12-10-17 | Ravens +5 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 106 h 37 m | Show |
20* Ravens/Steelers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Baltimore +5 Quietly, the Baltimore Ravens have gone 4-1 in their last five games overall to get to 7-5 and in the playoffs if the season were to end today. But they have a bunch of teams on their heels right now at 6-6 and cannot afford losses at this point. Clearly they won’t need any added motivation, but they get to play their biggest rivals in the Pittsburgh Steelers this week. This 4-1 run has been mighty impressive. It has included two shutout victories, and three victories by 23 or more points. They have beaten the Dolphins 40-0, the Packers 23-0, the Lions 44-20 and the Texans 23-16. Their only loss came by a mere three points in a 20-23 road loss to the 8-4 Tennessee Titans. They have outscored their last five opponents by a combined 91 points, or an average of 18.2 points per game. Sure, the Pittsburgh Steelers have won seven straight coming in, but five of those wins came by 6 points or fewer. And three of their last four wins came by exactly a field goal in lackluster efforts against inferior teams. They won 20-17 at Indianapolis as 10.5-point favorites, 31-28 over Green Bay as 14-point favorites and 23-20 at Cincinnati as 4.5-point favorites. I think they are way overvalued right now due to this 7-game winning streak. While the Ravens need this game like they need water, the Steelers actually do not. Sure, they’ll be motivated to play their biggest rivals, but in the back of their minds they know that their game against the New England Patriots next week will be for all the marbles. The Steelers and Patriots are both 10-2, so the Steelers could afford to lose this game and still get the No. 1 seed in the AFC if they beat the Patriots next week, which would give them the head-to-head tiebreaker. I certainly question their motivation this week because of this scenario. The Steelers also lost some key players in that hard-hitting game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. That means the’ll be working on a short week as well after playing on Monday. Ryan Shazier was hospitalized with a back injury, and he is their most important player on defense. He is their leading tackler, and his sideline-to-sideline speed will be missed. Not to mention, No. 2 receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster has been suspended for this game for his hit on Vontaze Burfict. That’s a big loss because Martavis Bryant has been a huge disappointment, and he’ll be asked to fill JuJu’s shoes. Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game. This Ravens offense has come to life in averaging 30.0 points per game in their last five. The Ravens are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC North opponents. Baltimore is 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Pittsburgh. The Ravens will want revenge from their 26-9 loss to the Steelers earlier this season back when they were really hurting injury-wise. They are much healthier now. Bet the Ravens Sunday. |
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12-10-17 | Redskins v. Chargers -5.5 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 63 h 45 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 The Los Angeles Chargers have shown some tremendous resiliency this season. After opening 0-4, they have gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and are playing as well as almost anyone in the NFL. Not only are they winning, they are dominating. Each of their last four wins have all come by 9 points or more, including a 21-point win over Denver, a 30-point win over Buffalo and a 22-point win at Dallas. Their only two losses during this stretch both came on the road against two of the best teams in the NFL. They lost 13-21 at New England and 17-20 at Jacksonville in overtime, so they were competitive in both losses. This recent run has put the Chargers in a great position to win the AFC West and make the playoffs. They are now in a three-way tie with the Chiefs and Raiders for first place. That makes this game against the Redskins massive for them, so they should be 100% focused and will actually have a home-field advantage now with their fans rejuvenated. Conversely, the Washington Redskins suffered their ‘dream crusher’ loss last week to the Dallas Cowboys by a final of 14-38 on the road. They completely imploded, committing four turnovers. Now they are sitting at 5-7 on the season and have zero chance of making the playoffs in the stacked NFC, where it would take an 8-4 record to be in the playoffs right now. I don’t expect the Redskins to bring their ‘A’ effort this week. It’s worth noting that the Redskins still have massive injury issues all over the field. They are missing up to three starters along the offensive line, which is the biggest concern against an elite Chargers pass rush that boasts Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Kirk Cousins was running for his life last week against Dallas, and it certainly won’t get any easier for him against the Chargers this week. They are also missing several key playmakers like Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson. Philip Rivers and this offense are hitting on all cylinders. The Chargers are averaging 33.7 points and 457.7 yards per game in their last three contests. That’s bad news for a Washington defense that has allowed 33 or more points in five of its last seven games overall. Rivers has thrown for 1,039 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games. The Chargers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 14. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Los Angeles is 29-10 ATS in its last 39 games after winning six or seven of its last eight games coming in. Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA Chargers) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against an opponent off a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Roll with the Chargers Sunday. |
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12-10-17 | Raptors v. Kings +8.5 | Top | 102-87 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Sacramento Kings +8.5 The Sacramento Kings just can’t get any respect from the books. And until they do, we’ll continue to back them catching big points in the underdog role. They should not be this big of a home underdog to the Toronto Raptors today. The Kings are playing their best basketball of the season. They are 4-4 SU & 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Three of the four wins were upsets, including a win at New Orleans as 9.5-point dogs and a win at Golden State as 12.5-point dogs. The are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games, pulling off outright upsets over the Thunder, 76ers, Blazers and Lakers in the process. The Raptors are getting too much love from the books due to their 5-game winning streak coming in. But those five wins came against the Hawks, Hornets, Pacers, Suns and Grizzlies. That’s an easy slate, and it showed considering they were 5-point favorites or more in all five games. It won’t come so easy against the Kings tonight. The Kings are 16-3 SU & 14-5 ATS in their last 19 home meetings with the Raptors. Sacramento is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in all meetings with Toronto over the past two seasons, winning both road meetings outright as underdogs as well. The Kings are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Bet the Kings Sunday. |
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12-10-17 | Arizona State +12.5 v. Kansas | 95-85 | Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show | |
15* ASU/Kansas ESPN Sunday No-Brainer on Arizona State +12.5 The Arizona State Sun Devils just cannot get any respect from the books. They have opened 8-0 SU & 7-0-1 ATS in their eight games this season, yet they are still catching 12.5 points against the Kansas Jayhawks here Sunday. It’s too much. I realize the Jayhawks will be motivated following one of the biggest upset losses of the season. They lost to Washington 65-74 as 22-point favorites last time out. But I think that was just more of a sign of the Jayhawks being overrated than anything. And they remain overrated here Sunday. The Sun Devils have proven themselves against some good competition. They beat Kansas State 92-90 as 4-point dogs on a neutral, Xavier 102-86 as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral and St. John’s 82-70 as 5-point favorites on a neutral. They are full capable of hanging with the Jayhawks today as well. Senior guards Tra Holder and Shannon Evans average 20.3 and 18.6 points, respectively, while freshman forward Romello White averages 15.6 points and leads Arizona State on the boards with 9.3 rebounds per game. ASU small forward Mickey Mitchell, a transfer from Ohio State, is eligible and is expected to make his Sun Devils debut Sunday. The Sun Devils will give the Jayhawks a run for their money this afternoon. Take Arizona State Sunday. |
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12-10-17 | 49ers +3 v. Texans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 95 h 53 m | Show | |
15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on San Francisco 49ers +3 I backed the 49ers as my upset shocker last week against the Bears and they delivered, winning outright as identical 3-point underdogs. I’m going to back them again this week with the same play title as I fully expect them to win outright as 3-point dogs against the Houston Texans. The 49ers have new life with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. He is a massive upgrade over C.J. Beathard before him, and I think he’s worth closer to a touchdown against the spread than a field goal. This team was competitive before Beathard, losing five consecutive games by three points or fewer. And they’ll be competitive the rest of the way with Garoppolo now. I don’t think the 49ers are exactly getting the respect they deserve this week because they needed a last-second field goal to beat the Bears last week. But that game was a much bigger blowout than the final score showed. The 49ers outgained the Bears by 241 total yards, gaining 388 total yards on offense and limiting the Bears to just 147 total yards on defense. One of the Bears’ two touchdowns was a 61-yard punt return TD. Garoppolo was awesome, throwing for 293 yards on 26-of-37 passing. He connected was 8-for-8 to Marquise Goodwin and 6-for-6 to Trent Taylor, his two best receivers. His accuracy was impressive. The 49ers had to settle for five field goals, but it wasn’t Garoppolo’s fault as they kept committing costly penalties in the red zone. Look for them to clean up those mistakes and for the 49ers’ offense to be even more sharp this week in Garoppolo’s second start with his new team. The Houston Texans are a mess right now. They have gone 1-4 in their five games since Deshaun Watson got hurt, and they are now 1-5 in games that Watson doesn’t start this year. They sit at 4-8 on the season and essentially eliminated from postseason contention after their tough 13-24 loss in Tennessee last week. There’s just nothing to like about this Texans team right now. First and foremost, their injury list just got even longer. They were already without Watson, Whitney Mercilus, J.J. Watt and several others, but then they suffered more key injuries last week. TE C.J. Fiedorowicz, CB Jonathan Joseph, WR Braxton Miller, WR Bruce Ellington and RB Alfred Blue were all knocked out of last week’s game against the Titans. They were already without WR Will Fuller for the past three games, so they are very limited at the receiver position right now. Tom Savage is terrible, and it’s no wonder they have been held to 16 or fewer points 5 of their 6 games without Watson this season. The 49ers are simply the better team right now on offense and defense, and they should not be dogs in this game. San Francisco is 27-13 ATS in its last 40 road games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40%. Houston is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 home games after passing for 300-plus yards in its previous game. Take the 49ers Sunday. |
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12-09-17 | Magic v. Hawks -2 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 18 h 0 m | Show |
20* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -2 I absolutely love this situation for the Atlanta Hawks Saturday. They just lost to Orlando in overtime on the road on December 6th 106-110. They have now had two days off to get ready for the Magic, and they’ll clearly want revenge getting them at home this time around. Meanwhile, the Magic had to play a game last night against Denver, losing 89-103 at home. So this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 5th game in 7 days for the Magic. That’s about as tough a situation as it gets. The Magic are running on fumes right now as they haven’t had two days in a row off since November 16-17. They will be playing their 10th game in 16 days with three back-to-backs in there. They are short-handed right now without arguably their best player in Evan Fournier, and key 6th man Terrance Ross. Also star rookie Jonathan Isaac is doubtful with an ankle injury. Orlando is 12-27 ATS versus teams who give up 106 or more points per game over the last two seasons. The Magic are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Orlando is 0-6 ATS in its last six when its opponent allows 100 points or more int heir previous game. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. Bet the Hawks Saturday. |
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12-09-17 | Army v. Navy -2.5 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
20* Army/Navy CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Navy -2.5 Navy had won 14 straight meetings with Army before finally losing to the Black Knights 21-17 last season. But that was an awful situation for the Midshipmen, to recently moved into the AAC. They played for the AAC Championship against Temple last year and lost that game. Normally, Navy would have two weeks to get ready for Army. But that wasn’t the case last year as the Midshipmen had to play on Championship Week, while Army got two weeks to prepare. The Black Knights took advantage of that break and pulled off the upset. That won’t be the case this year as both teams have two weeks to prepare. And you can bet Navy wasn’t happy about having to hear about losing to Army for 365 days. Look for the Midshipmen to be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week and to have a big brother mentality where they never want to lose to their little brother. Let’s look at this game from a line value perspective. Navy has been favored by at least 6 points against Army in 14 consecutive meetings. They have been a double-digit favorite nine times during this stretch. Now they are only 2.5-point favorites this year, and I think the value is clearly with the Midshipmen because of it. Sure, Army is improved at 8-3 this season, but the Black Knights have played an extremely soft schedule. They haven’t beaten a team with a winning record all season! The best wins they have are against 6-6 teams. And they’ve lost to Tulane and North Texas. Navy has played the much more difficult schedule, and they’ve been in every game they played. They are 6-5 this season, but all five losses came by 10 points or less, and they came to five bowl teams with four of them on the road to Memphis, UCF, Temple, Notre Dame and Houston. They played all five teams right down to the wire, including a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame as 21-point dogs. Army outgained teams by 38 yards per game on the season while Navy outgained teams by 39 yards per game, and that’s important when you consider how much more difficult Navy’s schedule was. This game will come down to which team stops the run. Navy gives up 4.6 yards per carry against teams that average 5.1 per carry, holding them to 0.5 yards per carry below their season averages. Army gives up 4.8 per carry against teams that only average 4.3 per carry, actually giving up 0.5 per carry more than their opponents normally average. It’s clear that the Midshipmen have the better run defense. Army is 6-21 ATS in its last 27 vs. poor pass defenses that allow 8.5 or more yards per attempt. Navy is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 road games after having lost two of its last three games coming in. The Black Knights are 14-35 ATS in their last 49 games following a bye week. Bet Navy Saturday. |
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12-09-17 | Yale v. St Bonaventure -9.5 | 67-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Bonaventure -9.5 The St. Bonaventure Bonnies went 20-12 last season. They returned four starters from that team, including one of the best backcourts in the country in Matt Mobley (18.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg last year) and Jaylen Adams (20.6 ppg, 6.5 apg). Yale was expected to compete for an Ivy League title this season. But those dreams have been crushed since the Bulldogs lost two of their best players to season-ending injury. Makai Mason (16.0 ppg, in 2015-16) missed all of last season with a foot injury, and that injury didn’t heal so he will miss this season too. Jordan Bruner (8.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 55 blocks last year) has also been lost for the season with a knee injury. The Bonnies have been mighty impressive of late, going 6-1 in their last seven games. They beat Maryland on a neutral court, won three true road games all by 8 points or more against Siena, Buffalo and Canisius, and lost to TCU by 10 as 8.5-point dogs on a neutral. TCU is still unbeaten as of this writing. Yale has been blown out on a the regular when it has taken a step up in class during its 6-5 start this season. The Bulldogs lost by 16 at Creighton, by 28 at Wisconsin, by 8 at Albany and by 26 at TCU. They also lost at home to Vermont by 6. This team isn’t capable of hanging with a team the caliber of St. Bonaventure, which is an NCAA Tournament team in my eyes. Yale is 3-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons. The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS versus very good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points pre game over the last three years. The Bonnies are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. Ivy League opponents. Roll with St. Bonaventure Saturday. |
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12-08-17 | Oklahoma v. USC +2.5 | Top | 85-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
20* Oklahoma/USC ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on USC +2.5 Wrong team favored here. The USC Trojans are absolutely loaded this season with all five starters back from a team that went 26-10 last year. They have their top eight scorers back and Bennie Boatwright, Chimezie Metu and Elijah Stewart all withdrew their names from the NBA draft to stay in school. I think the fact that USC has already lost two games has them undervalued right now at just 4-2 on the season. But those losses came to two really good teams in Texas A&M and SMU. Oklahoma isn’t as good as either of those two teams. I think the Sooners are overvalued due to their 6-1 start. But they haven’t beat anyone as good as USC, and this is a team that went just 10-20 last season. They do have freshman sensation Trae Young, who is averaging 28.7 points per game this season. But he is simply asked to do too much, and I don’t trust a guy that consistently shoots 35-foot 3-pointers as part of the offense. Oklahoma is 0-7 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Sooners are 0-6 ATS when playing on Friday over the last three years. The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. The Trojans are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 non-conference games. The Trojans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big 12 opponents. Roll with USC Friday. |
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12-08-17 | Celtics v. Spurs -2 | 102-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
15* Celtics/Spurs ESPN Friday No-Brainer on San Antonio -2 The San Antonio Spurs are showing tremendous value as only 2-point home favorites over the Boston Celtics tonight. At 17-8 on the season, the Spurs are hardly missing Kawhi Leonard. They are playing team ball with 30 assists in their last game and a ridiculous eight of their 11 players scored at least 10 points in a 117-105 win over Miami. I think the Celtics are grossly overrated right now due to their 22-4 start to the season. You certainly are paying a tax to back them now. That’s why they have only covered two of their last five against the spread coming into this game. Now they are getting too much respect from the books again at basically a pick ‘em on the road here against one of the best teams in the NBA. The Spurs have owned the Celtics, going 11-1 SU & 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Spurs have won five straight home meetings with the Celtics dating back to 2011. San Antonio is 25-9 ATS in December games over the last three seasons. Boston is 8-19 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins over the last three years. The Spurs are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 Friday games. Take the Spurs Friday. |
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12-08-17 | Kings +9 v. Pelicans | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Sacramento Kings +9 The Sacramento Kings are going to want revenge from a 106-114 home loss to the Pelicans the first time these teams played. DeMarcus Cousins had a monster game against his former team, but don’t expect that to happen again. He won’t be nearly as motivated the second time around. And Cousins is going to be asked to do a lot with the Pelicans’ best player in Anthony Davis sidelined for this one with a groin injury. Solomon Hill and Alexis Ajinca are also out with injuries. The Pelicans can’t be laying this kind of number with their current injury situation. The Kings have been grossly underrated here of late as they are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 3-4 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They beat the Warriors on the road and the Lakers and Bulls at home. Three of their four losses during this stretch came by 6 points or less, including their 95-101 loss in Cleveland as 12.5-point dogs last time out. It took some late Lebron James heroics to put them away. The Kings are well-rested and ready to go as this will be just their 2nd game in 6 days. Meanwhile, the Pelicans will be playing their 5th game in 8 days. The Pelicans are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with three double-digit losses during this stretch. They are clearly missing Davis. New Orleans is 1-10 ATS in home games versus teams who are outscored by their opponents by 6-plus points per game on the season over the last three seasons. The underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Bet the Kings Friday. |
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12-07-17 | Thunder v. Nets OVER 214.5 | 95-100 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
15* NBA Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Thunder/Nets OVER 214.5 This game is played in Mexico City tonight to showcase the NBA. The players will want to put on a show, and I look for their to be little defense played in this game. It will be played at a fast tempo as well for entertainment value. The Nets already prefer to play at a face pace. They rank 3rd in the NBA in pace at 104.9 possessions per game, only behind the Lakers and Suns. They also don’t play a lick of defense. The Thunder will take advantage and will hang a big number on them. The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between these teams. They have combined for 226, 229 and 222 points in those three meetings. That’s an average of 225.7 combined points per game, which is over 11 points more than this 214.5-point total Brooklyn is 12-3 OVER against Northwest Division opponents over the last two seasons. The Nets are 28-14 OVER in non-conference games over the last two seasons. The OVER is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings. Roll with the OVER in this game Thursday. |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +2 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 43 m | Show |
25* NFL Thursday Night GAME OF THE YEAR on Atlanta Falcons +2 Let’s start by looking at this number from a value perspective. This line of New Orleans -2 indicates the Saints would be 8-point favorites at home against the Falcons. They would be 5-point favorites on a neutral field. I would be all over the Falcons in both scenarios, and I’m all over them Thursday night as home dogs to the Saints. I think this line is an overreaction from what happened last week. The Saints beat an overrated Panthers team 31-21 at home, while the Falcons were upset 9-14 at home by the underrated Vikings. The Falcons went 1-for-10 on 3rd down, which was the difference in that game. But we saw earlier this season the Saints lost 19-29 to Minnesota on the road, so the loss to the Vikings is not a bad one. And the Falcons go from being favored by 2 against a better team in Minnesota to being 2-point home underdogs to a worse team in the Saints this week. From a value perspective, this couldn’t be much better situation for the Falcons. Speaking of situations, this game is a lot more important for Atlanta than it is for New Orleans. The Falcons are actually one game back in the wild card. And they still feel like they can win the NFC South, which they can with the way the schedule sets up. They trail the Saints by two games and still get to play them twice, while also getting to host the Panthers. If the Panthers win out, they will be NFC South champs. So their outlook is a very positive one right now even with the loss to the Vikings. It’s also a bad spot for the Saints working on a short week here and having to travel. The short week won’t affect the Falcons nearly as much because they played at home last week, so they will have max preparation time remaining at home here for this Thursday night tilt. While the Falcons are very healthy right now, the same cannot be said for the Saints. S Williams, CB Lattimore, CB Williams, CB Crawley, T Peat, T Armstead, and RB Ingram are all questionable for New Orleans. Not to mention they have 15 players on injured reserve compared to just two for Atlanta. Atlanta won both meetings with New Orleans last season, scoring a combined 83 points in the two wins and amassing 907 total yards in the two victories. The game in Atlanta last year finished 38-32, but it was a 38-13 game entering the fourth quarter before the Falcons called off the dogs. The Falcons are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Thursday games. Atlanta is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. NFC opponents. The underdog is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Bet the Falcons Thursday. |
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12-07-17 | Iowa +7.5 v. Iowa State | 78-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
15* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN 2 Thursday No-Brainer on Iowa +7.5 The Iowa State Cyclones have no business being favored this heavily over arch rival Iowa tonight. This is a Cyclones team that only brought back one starter and lost basically everyone from last season. They are starting from the ground-up. It’s only a matter of time before the Hawkeyes get back to playing well after going 19-15 last year. They were expected to be much better with four returning starters, but their 4-5 start leaves a lot to be desired. Granted, the schedule has not been easy. Indeed, the Hawkeyes have already had to face VA Tech, Penn State and Indiana in their last three games, which resulted in three losses. I think this rough start has them undervalued. Conversely, the Cyclones are overvalued after winning five straight. But this is a team that lost to Wisconsin-Milwaukee by 18 at home as 13.5-point favorites prior to this streak against mostly weak competition. Iowa State is 0-7 ATS in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last three seasons. The Cyclones are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a losing record. Iowa State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take Iowa Thursday. |
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12-06-17 | Warriors v. Hornets +6 | 101-87 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
15* Warriors/Hornets ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Charlotte +6 The Golden State Warriors are in a world of hurt right now with their injuries. It was already announced that Stephen Curry was going to miss two weeks with a bad ankle injury suffered in their last game. And this morning it was announced that Draymond Green will also sit with a shoulder injury. Curry is the most important player on this team even though Kevin Durant won the MVP in the finals last year. He makes this team tick. And Green is perhaps the most underrated player in the NBA. No other team has a player like him. He sets the best screens and is the key to their pick and roll action with his ability to pass the ball and find open teammates. And he’s one of the best defenders in the NBA. The Hornets just recently got their star PG Kemba Walker back in the lineups nd promptly crushed Orlando 104-94 last time out. Now they will be playing just their 2nd game in 7 days and will be fresh and ready to go. Meanwhile, the Warriors will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 8th game in 12 days. They are running on fumes right now, which makes the fact that they are without Green and Curry even worse. Charlotte is 19-7 ATS in home games when playing just its 2nd game in 5 days over the last three seasons. Golden State is 9-19 ATS in road games when playing a team with a losing record over the last two seasons. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win, and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Take the Hornets Wednesday. |
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12-06-17 | Drake +10 v. South Dakota | Top | 65-93 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
20* CBB Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Drake +10 After going just 7-24 last season, it’s clear to me that the Drake Bulldogs are one of the most improved teams in the country this season. They got a great hire in Niko Medved, who won the 2017 Southern Conference Coach of the Year award while leading Furman to 23 wins last season. Medved inherited an experienced Drake roster that returned eight of the nine players who averaged at least 14 minutes per game last season. Senior Reed Timmer (21.7 ppg, 54.1% 3-pointers) is once again leading the team in scoring. Fellow seniors Graham Woodward (13.8 ppg), De’Antae McMurray (12.8 ppg) and Ore Arogundade (7.7 ppg) are all having solid seasons as well for this veteran bunch. Drake is off to a 4-3 start this season despite playing a rough schedule. They have wins over Wake Forest as 9.5-point dogs and Drexel, and their three losses went down to the wire with an 81-86 loss to Colorado, a 73-75 road loss at Nebraska-Omaha and an 89-96 road loss at Wyoming in overtime as 10.5-point dogs. They are more than capable of staying within 10 points of South Dakota here Wednesday. I think South Dakota is in a massive letdown spot here. They just played a dream game at Duke last time out and showed well, losing 80-96 as 23-point underdogs. Now they will have a hard time getting back up emotionally to face Drake. I think they’ll be flat most the game and will be lucky to squeak out a win, let alone win by double-digits. Drake is 36-17 ATS in its last 53 games off a road cover where it lost straight up as an underdog. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last two seasons. Drake is 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4 or more boards per game over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Drake Wednesday. |
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12-06-17 | Middle Tennessee v. Vanderbilt -2 | 66-63 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Vanderbilt -2 The Vanderbilt Commodores will be hungry for a win tonight. They have opened 3-5 against a brutal schedule that has featured losses to the likes of USC, Virginia, Seton Hall, Kansas State and Belmont. They also haven’t covered a single spread this season, which has them undervalued. But it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense they would be struggling like this because they brought back three starters and three double-digit scorers in Mathew Fisher-Davis, Jeff Roberson and Riley LaChance. This is a team that made the NCAA Tournament in Bryce Drew’s first season last year, a feat that had never been accomplished previously in Vanderbilt history. I think the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders get a lot of respect because they made the NCAA Tournament the past two years and made some noise. But they loss two of their core players from those two teams in JaCorey Williams (17.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg last year) and Reggie Upshaw (14.5 ppg, 6.8 rpg). They aren’t nearly as strong as the last two versions. Vanderbilt is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games off an upset loss as a home favorite. The home team has won three straight and five of the last six meetings between these teams. Roll with Vanderbilt Wednesday. |
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12-06-17 | Mavs +9.5 v. Celtics | Top | 90-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on Dallas Mavericks +9.5 The tax you have to pay to back the Boston Celtics right now is very steep. That’s because they have opened 21-4 SU & 19-5-1 ATS through their first 25 games of the season. You are going to be getting no discounts on them with the betting public catching on already. Conversely, you can get a great price on the Dallas Mavericks due to their 7-17 SU & 10-14 ATS start. But they are playing their best basketball of the season right now and are a much better team than that record would indicate. Indeed, the Mavericks are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. They have beaten Milwaukee by 32, Oklahoma City by 16, the Clippers by 26 and the Nuggets by 17 during this streak. They are not only beating teams, they are crushing them. And their three losses have all come by 8 points or fewer in their last eight games. One of those was a 102-110 home loss in overtime to this same Celtics team on November 20th, meaning the Mavericks will be motivated for revenge just two weeks later. And the Celtics have a huge road game at San Antonio on deck and could be looking ahead to that contest. Dallas is 26-13 ATS when revenging a same season loss vs. opponent over the last two seasons. Boston is 3-12 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons. The Celtics are 2-11 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team with a winning percentage of 25% to 40% over the last two seasons. Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DALLAS) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points against opponent off three or more consecutive home wins are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Boston. The road team is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Bet the Mavericks Wednesday. |
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12-06-17 | Kent State +23 v. Xavier | 70-96 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Kent State +23 The Xavier Musketeers are in a massive letdown spot tonight against Kent State. They are coming off a huge 89-76 home win over their biggest rivals in the Cincinnati Bearcats. That game is a war every year, and they certainly won’t be nearly as excited to play Kent State tonight. I also think the Musketeers are way overvalued right now due to going 7-1 ATS through their first eight games of the season. The betting public has caught on to this ranked team, and you won’t be getting many bargains with them in the near future. The Kent State Golden Flashes are expected to compete for a MAC title this season. They went 22-14 last year and returned three starters from that team, including Jaylin Walker (15.8 ppg). They also return four key reserves and have a ton of experience coming back. They are off to a 5-3 start this season. Xavier is 0-6 ATS off two straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more over the last two seasons. Kent State is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Musketeers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. MAC foes. Take Kent State Wednesday. |
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12-05-17 | Wizards v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 106-92 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
20* Wizards/Blazers NBATV Late-Night BAILOUT on Portland -5.5 It’s safe to say the Portland Trail Blazers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight following back-to-back upset home losses to the Bucks and Pelicans. I look for them to take out their frustration on the short-handed, fatigued Washington Wizards tonight. The Wizards will be playing the second of a back-to-back after an ugly 69-114 loss in Utah last night. They remain without John Wall, and have gone just 3-6 in their last nine games overall. Now they’re up against a fresh, pissed off Blazers team that has had two days off coming into this one. The home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings. The Wizards are 2-11 ATS versus teams who average 20 or fewer assists per game over the last two seasons. The Blazers have been talking about their lack of assists and why the offense has struggled recently, so look for them to play more team-oriented bacsketball tonight. "That's a reflection of how our offense is struggling,” Damian Lillard said. "We're not shooting the ball as well, we're not scoring as well, and so the assists are down.” Bet the Blazers Tuesday. |