20* Warriors/Rockets NBA Cup No-Brainer on Houston -2.5

The Houston Rockets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 16-8 SU & 16-8 ATS and fully healthy right now.  Both Fred Van Vleet (16.0 PPG, 5.9 APG) and Tari Eason (11.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG) sat out their last game and were on the injury report heading into this game, but both are expected to play.

The Rockets are clearly taking this NBA Cup seriously.  They went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their first three Group Stage games to clinch their spot in the quarterfinals.  They beat the Clippers by 21 and the Blazers by 28 in their two home games, and they upset the Timberwolves by 6 on the road.  Their 4th Group Stage game against the Kings was meaningless and they played like it in a 9-point road loss.

Now the Rockets are extra motivated to get over this Golden State hurdle.  They have lost 15 consecutive meetings with the Warriors, including a OT loss at home and a 6-point loss on the road in their first two meetings this season.  I think it will be a different story this time around with one of the best home atmospheres for any NBA game this season as fans are excited about finally having a contender in Houston.  The Rockets are 9-3 SU at home this season.

Golden State is 2-6 SU & 3-4-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Steve Kerr still cannot figure out a rotation that works for the Warriors playing up to a 12-man rotation at times.  The loss of backup PG De'Anthony Melton really threw the rotation off and the Warriors haven't been able to figure it out since.

I don't like the way this team is trending heading into the NBA Cup quarterfinals, but I think they are getting a lot of respect just because they are the Warriors.  Andrew Wiggins is questionable with an ankle injury and may not go, and even if he does he won't be 100%.  Draymond Green and Steph Curry are both playing banged up as well.  Bet the Rockets Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Fresno State +27.5

It's Finals Week and some of these big home favorites aren't going to be very interested.  I think BYU fits that profile tonight, and asking the Cougars to win this game by 28-plus points against Fresno State to beat us is asking too much.

Fresno State has been undervalued since a 2-2 SU & 1-2-1 ATS start this season that included narrow home wins over Sacramento State and Prairie View A&M and road losses to UCSB and CS-Bakersfield.  But they have gotten healthy and are playing much better of late.

The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They upset Long Beach State outright as 3.5-point road dogs.  They hung with Washington State on a neutral in an 11-point loss as 13-point dogs.  They hung with Cal Baptist on a neutral in a 5-point loss as 6.5-point dogs.  They also covered in a 15-point loss at Santa Clara as 16-point dogs.  Their lone non-cover came in a 22-point loss to San Diego State, which is one of the better teams in the country with wins over both Houston and Creighton already.

BYU has a first-year head coach and is overvalued.  The Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They only beat UC-Riverside by 6 as 21.5-point favorites and Idaho by 26 as 28-point home favorites.  They lost by 11 to Ole Miss as 3-point favorites on a neutral, and most concerning was their 19-point loss at Providence as 4.5-point favorites last time out.  Bet Fresno State Wednesday.

20* Magic/Bucks NBA Cup No-Brainer on Milwaukee -7

The Milwaukee Bucks proved they are taking the NBA Cup seriously by going 4-0 in group play with the best point differential (+50) in the entire NBA.  That has given them the No. 1 seed in the East and an excellent chance to advance to Las Vegas.

The Bucks are healthier right now than they have been all season and a dangerous team when that's the case.  Both Giannis and Lillard are healthy, and now they have Khris Middleton back in the rotation for the first time all season.

The Orlando Magic are without their two best players in Paulo Banchero (29.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 5.6 APG) and Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 5.7 APG).  Those two account for half of their 107.6 points per game average offensively.

In their first game without Wagner, they were able to beat the short-handed Phoenix Suns 115-110 who were without both Durant and Nurkic.  That game was at home, and while the Magic are 10-0 SU at home this season, they are just 7-9 SU on the road.

The last time the Magic beat the Bucks was at home and Wagner and Banchero combined for 51 points.  The Bucks didn't have Giannis for that game either.  The Bucks won 117-99 over the Magic in their last meeting in Milwaukee despite being without Giannis.  Wagner and Banchero combined for 52 points in the meeting prior in a 118-114 loss at Milwaukee.  And in the meeting prior, the Magic won 112-97 in Orlando with no Lillard and Banchero and Wagner combining for 50 points.

The Bucks are 16-2 SU in their last 18 meetings with the Magic with 15 of those 16 wins coming by 17 points or more.  It's safe to say the losses of Banchro and Wagner will be felt tonight for the Magic especially up against a fully healthy Bucks team, which hasn't been the case in recent meetings.  Bet the Bucks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Penn State/Rutgers UNDER 158.5

Both Penn State and Rutgers are playing faster this season with improved offenses.  But this total has been adjusted up too much for those facts, and I think now that these teams are in Big Ten play the scoring will be suppressed in the immediate future.

Penn State ranks 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency and that's a big reason for their improvement this season.  They just held Purdue to 70 points despite 51.1% shooting in a game that was played at a slow pace but had great shooting from both teams to get to 151 combined points.  The UNDER is 3-1 in Penn State's last four games overall with 151 or fewer combined points in all four.  

Rutgers has taken a step back defensively this season ranking 96th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  But head coach Steve Pikiell has always been known for defense, and he will have his team improving on that end as the season goes on.  Rutgers ranks 171st in effective FG percentage and 210th in 3-point shooting offensively.

The UNDER is 11-0 in the last 11 meetings with 142 or fewer combined points in all 11 meetings.  In fact, the Scarlet Knights and Nittany Lions have combined for 147 or fewer points in 17 consecutive meetings, making for a 17-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 158.5-point total.  This adjustment up on this total is a bridge too far.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Miami/Tennessee ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -14

The Tennessee Vols are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS this season.  They may have a letdown at some point, but it won't be in the Jimmy V Classic on ESPN against the Miami Hurricanes tonight.

The Vols are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with all seven wins coming by 15 points or more.  That includes wins by 22 over Virginia and by 15 over Baylor on a neutral.  They also beat Louisville by 22 in a true road game and Syracuse by 26 at home.

Miami is 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS this season.  The Hurricanes have lost six consecutive games coming in and they haven't played a team the caliber of Tennessee all season.  They lost by 10 at home to Clemson, by 3 at home to Arkansas, were upset by 4 at home by Charleston Southern as 24.5-point favorites, and they lost to Drake, Oklahoma State and VCU on a neutral.  The Hurricanes are a mess this season.  Bet Tennessee Tuesday.

20* Bengals/Cowboys ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 47.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Monday night in perfect conditions in the dome in Arlington.  This thing has shootout written all over it when the Dallas Cowboys host the Cincinnati Bengals.

The OVER is 9-3 in the Bengals 12 games this season with 51 or more combined points in nine of those 12 games.  Joe Burrow leads an offense that ranks 6th in scoring at 27.9 points per game.  The problem is the Bengals have lost three times this season in which they have scored at least 30 points because they have a dreadful defense.

The Bengals rank 31st in scoring defense allowing 28.3 points per game.  Their defense was just shredded for 44 points and 520 total yards by the Pittsburgh Steelers, who aren't known for having a very good offense.  They looked like they quit on that side of the ball last week, which says a lot going up against a division rival.

The Cowboys rank 29th in scoring defense allowing 28.2 points per game.  The OVER is 5-1 in Dallas' six home games this season.  The Cowboys have allowed an average of 34.5 points per game at home this season.  Burrow and company are going to be able to do whatever they want against this defense.

The Cowboys have been surprisingly effective on offense since Cooper Rush took over, especially the last two weeks.  They put up 34 points on the Commanders two weeks ago and 27 points on the Giants last week.  The Cowboys also just got No. 2 receiver Brandin Cooks back last week from injury to take some of the pressure off of CeeDee Lamb.  I'm expecting Rush's best performance of the season against this soft Cincinnati defense.

The OVER is 8-4 in all Dallas games this season with 47 or more combined points in eight of those 12 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Knicks/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto +6

The New York Knicks have their NBA Cup quarterfinal game on deck Wednesday.  I think they'll be overlooking the Toronto Raptors and looking ahead to that game.  I don't think we get the Knicks' best effort as a result.

The Knicks have benefited from a very soft schedule here of late.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five games but lost outright to Detroit as 8-point home favorites.  They also beat Charlotte, Orlando and New Orleans at home which are three of the most banged up teams in the NBA right now.  They also only beat Charlotte by 1 on the road during this stretch as 13-point favorites.

The Toronto Raptors have been one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA this season and they continue to be as 6-point home dogs tonight.  The Raptors are 16-8 ATS in all games.  They are as healthy as they have been all season right now and just took a fully healthy Mavericks team to the wire at home last time out.

The Raptors are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games with four outright upsets over the Pacers (twice), Timberwolves and Heat.  They will take the unmotivated Knicks to the wire again tonight and possibly pull off another upset.  Bet the Raptors Monday.

20* NBA Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Kings OVER 232.5

The Utah Jazz have gone OVER the total in their last two games combining for 239 points with Oklahoma City and 240 points with Portland.  The Sacramento Kings have gotten healthy and are coming off a 140-113 win over the Spurs for 253 combined points.  The OVER is 5-2 in their last seven games overall.

The Kings and Jazz have combined for at least 232 points in eight of their last 10 meetings, and 228 or more in 11 of their last 12.  This has been a high-scoring series and it will continue to be tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Rockets -2.5

The Houston Rockets will be highly motivated for a win tonight coming off two consecutive losses.  The Rockets are still 15-8 SU & 15-8 ATS this season and one of the best teams in the NBA.  I expect them to bounce back, especially since they're rested after having the last two days off.

The Los Angeles Clippers are coming off a 108-80 loss to the Timberwolves.  They are battling a laundry list of injuries right now as James Harden suffered a groin injury in that loss and is questionable.  They were already without Kawhi and Mann, and they could be without Dunn as well.  I just don't like this Clippers lineup right now.

The Rockets clearly like facing the Clippers as they have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 21, 11 and 8 points.  Two of those wins came earlier this season and the Clippers were much healthier for both of those games than they are now.  Bet the Rockets Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday TOTAL DOMINATOR on Suns/Magic UNDER 210

Injuries to both teams are the reason I'm on the UNDER tonight.  Orlando was already without leading scorer Paulo Banchero (29.0 PPG) and now they just lost second-leading scorer Franz Wagner (24.4 PPG) last time out.  Points are going to be very hard to come by for the Magic moving forward without these two.

The Phoenix Suns are without leading scorer Kevin Durant (25.8 PPG) and Jusuf Nurkic (8.9 PPG).  They are having to play a more defensive-minded lineup without these two, including Mason Plumlee at center.

The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  These teams combined for just 208 points in their first meeting this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Atlanta Hawks have gotten healthy and are playing up tot heir potential. They have gone 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall, including handing Cleveland two of its three losses this season in dominant efforts.

The spot really favors the Hawks tonight after having yesterday off.  They play a Denver Nuggets team that is banged up and will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 122-113 loss in Washington last night as 11.5-point favorites.  That's a Wizards team that was playing awful prior and was missing half their team due to injury.

Nikola Jokic scored 56 points with 16 rebounds and it still wasn't enough.  He also played nearly 40 minutes and won't have much left in the tank.  Both Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray are questionable to play tonight for the Nuggets as well.  I like Atlanta either way.  Bet the Hawks Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona Cardinals ML -145

I love the spot for the Arizona Cardinals this week.  They will be playing with revenge in mind after losing 16-6 in poor weather in Seattle in their first meeting just two weeks ago.  The Seahawks had a 69-yard pick 6, which was the difference in the game as the stats were pretty even otherwise.

Arizona lost 23-22 at Minnesota last week in a game they deserved to win, but went 1-for-6 scoring touchdowns in the red zone.  The Cardinals outgained the Vikings 406 to 273 for the game, or by 133 total yards.  The Vikings hadn't been manhandled by a team like that all season, so it just goes to show how good this Arizona team is right now.

The Cardinals trail the Seahawks by one game in the division, and they can't afford a loss because they would not only fall two games back, but it would essentially be three games because they would lose the tiebreaker.  I expect an 'all in' effort from the Cardinals this week, and it will be good enough to get the win.

The Cardinals are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games beating the Chargers 17-15 as 1-point dogs, beating the Bears 29-9 as 2-point favorites and crushing the Jets 31-6 as 2-point dogs.  They outgained the Bears 350 to 241, or by 109 yards.  They outgained the Jets 406 to 207, or by 199 yards.

Seattle is getting a lot of respect for a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS stretch in their last three games overall.  They came from behind to beat the 49ers 20-17 off their bye week.  But the 49ers went on to lose by 28 to the Packers and by 25 to the Bills.  They beat the Cardinals 16-6, but they were outgained by the Cardinals and benefited from a pick-6, which was the difference.  And last week they struggled to put away the Jets 26-21, a game that turned on a pick-6 by Aaron Rodgers after nearly going up 21 the play before missing a wide open receiver in the end zone.

This is a tough spot for the Seahawks with a lot of travel involved.  After flying out to New York, now they have to fly back home to Seattle, and then fly back out to Arizona in this back-to-back road trip.  That's about as much travel as you will ever see for one team in two weeks.  I think the Seahawks are 'fat and happy' right now, knowing they can afford a loss since taking over first place in the NFC West.

The Cardinals have faced the single-toughest schedule in the NFL this season.  The Seahawks have faced the 17th-ranked schedule.  Yet Arizona has the better numbers to this point.  The Cardinals are outgaining opponents by 12.5 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play, while the Seahawks are only outgaining opponents by 0.1 yards per game and 0.1 yards per play.  Bet the Cardinals on the Money Line Sunday.

20* AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Jets/Dolphins OVER 44.5

The New York Jets have really slipped defensively since Robert Saleh was fired.  They have allowed at least 23 points in seven of their last eight games.  They have allowed 25 or more points in five of their last six games, including 26 to the Seahawks, 28 to the Colts and 31 to the Cardinals in their last three games coming in.

Things are getting worse before they get better for the Jets defensively now.  They just placed LB CJ Mosley on IR, and CB Sauce Gardner is doubtful to play Sunday after suffering an injury last week.  That's two of their best defenders they will be without.

The Jets have been able to move the football and score some points with Aaron Rodgers throwing to Devante Adams and Garrett Wilson.  They have scored 21 or more points in four of their last five games.  Now Rodgers gets his security blanket in Allen Lazard back from IR this week to give him another weapon.

The Dolphins have been an offensive juggernaut since getting Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback.  They have scored at least 23 points in five of his six starts since returning.  The only exception was the 17 they scored against the Packers last week in freezing temps, but they deserved to score more with 375 total yards.

The Dolphins lost key defenders in that 30-17 loss to the Packers last week and those same guys are either questionable, hobbled or out this week.  They allowed 24 first half points to the Packers, who were able to take their foot off the gas after intermission with the game in hand.

The OVER is 4-0 in Miami's last four home games combining for 49 points with New England, 53 with Las Vegas and 55 with Arizona in the last three.  The forecast looks great for another shootout with temps in the 70's, no precipitation and less than 10 MPH winds in Miami.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Browns/Steelers OVER 44

The Browns are definitely an OVER team with Jameis Winston at quarterback.  He has played well for the most part but he is almost as likely to throw a costly INT that lead to easy points to the opposition as he is to throw a TD pass.  This offense has been opened up big time with Winston at QB.

It started with a 29-24 win over the Ravens as Winston threw for 334 yards and 3 TD in the win.  After a clunker with 3 INT against the Chargers, Winston threw for another 395 yards and 2 TD against the Saints.  Their defense was exposed in that game allowing 473 total yards to the Saints.  Winston led the 24-19 comeback in the snow against the Steelers two weeks ago.

But last week was the ultimate Winston game.  The Browns lost 41-32 at Denver for 73 combined points. The Browns had no business losing that game as they outgained the Broncos 562 to 400.  But the difference was not one but two pick 6's by Winston.  He threw for 497 yards and 4 TD with 3 INT in defeat.  He had a ton of amazing throws that only he can do, but also the bonehead throws that we have become accustomed to.

Cleveland has six defenders on IR, two out, and another questionable in S Thornhill.  They suffered more injuries last week against Denver, and this defense just hasn't been as good since trading away DE Smith to Detroit.  Myles Garrett can now be double-teamed, and the Steelers can focus their attention on him.

Speaking of shootouts, the Steelers beat the Bengals 44-38 last week for 82 combined points.  Russell Wilson had one of the best games of his career throwing for 414 yards and 3 TD with one INT against the Bengals.  I expect him to light up this soft Cleveland defense as well.

The OVER is 4-1 in Winston's five starts this season.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's last seven games overall as the Steelers have been much more of an OVER team with Wilson's ability to use the entire field with the deep ball.  The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on New Mexico State +20.5

This is one of the more underrated rivalries in college basketball.  And with New Mexico down several notches from the team they were last season with all they lost in the offseason, the Lobos should not be 20.5-point favorites over the New Mexico State Aggies.

New Mexico had to come from behind late to beat San Jose State 83-77 as 19-point home favorites last time out.  New Mexico State is 3-5 SU this season, but four of the five losses came by 12 points or less, and the lone exception was a 21-point loss at Dayton which is one of the better mid-majors in the country.  They only lost by 7 at UNLV.

Five of the last six meetings in this series were decided by 7 points or less.  New Mexico State has only lost by more than 20 points to New Mexico twice since 1982 which is spanning 88 meetings.  That makes for a 86-2 system backing the Aggies pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  Bet New Mexico State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Memphis Grizzlies +6.5

This is a very tough spot for the Boston Celtics.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 111-105 win over the Bucks last night as 8-point favorites.  They will now be playing their 5th game in 7 days as well.

All five starters played at least 34 minutes last night for the Celtics, and I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to rest one or two of them tonight.  Either way, the Celtics should not be 6.5-point favorites given the tough rest spot tonight.

The Grizzlies are 13-5 SU & 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall.  They are showing what they are capable of when healthy.  They have all their best players healthy right now and are ready to give the Celtics a run for their money tonight.  Bet the Grizzlies Saturday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE WEEK on New Orleans Pelicans +9

It's time to 'buy low' on the New Orleans Pelicans after opening 5-18 SU & 8-15 ATS this season.  Their struggles are directly tied to injuries, but they are as healthy as they have been in a long time now.

The Pelicans are coming off a 126-124 home win over the Suns and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days.  Ingram, McCollum, Murray, Murphy and Jones are all back in the lineup after previously being out with injuries.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Oklahoma City Thunder.  They are 17-5 SU & 13-7-2 ATS in their 22 games this season.  That includes a 6-1 SU & 4-2-1 ATS stretch in their last seven games.  But asking the Thunder to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  Bet the Pelicans Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Southern Indiana +9.5

Asking Southern Illinois to win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much.  The Salukis are just 3-6 SU & 2-4-1 ATS this season.  Their three wins came against Missouri S&T, NDSU and Florida Tech.

Southern Illinois is coming off a 23-point home loss to Bradley as 4-point dogs.  They also lost by 25 at Florida, but 6 at LA Tech and were upset by Eastern Kentucky.

Southern Indiana is 4-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last five games.  Three of those four wins were outright upsets as underdogs.  Their 80-78 loss at DePaul as 15-point dogs looks even better right now considering DePaul has only lost one game, and that was a 14-point loss at Texas Tech.  Bet Southern Indiana Saturday.

20* ISU/ASU Big 12 Championship No-Brainer on Iowa State +2.5

I could see this game listed at a PK if both teams were fully healthy.  But Arizona State lost one of its best players in WR Jordyn Tyson late in the win over Arizona last week, and now he is out for the season.  The Cyclones should be favored with no Tyson for ASU.

Tyson has 75 receptions for 1,101 yards and 10 TD for the Sun Devils this season.  In the last six games alone, Tyson has 50 receptions for 732 yards and 6 TD.  He leads the nation in receiving over the last nine weeks and just had 8 receptions for 143 yards against Arizona last week.

"What makes it more difficult is obviously he demands two people to cover him," head coach Kenny Dillingham said after praising the receiver for his run-blocking abilities. "So if people don't have to allocate two people, then they can load the box. So you got to find more creative ways to win those one-one-one matchups".

The two players tied for second on the team in targets aren't even wide receivers.  They are RB Cam Skattebo (35 receptions, 468 yards) and TE Chamon Metayer (28 receptions, 285 yards).  Both have 41 targets this season.

Iowa State's game plan was already going to be to load the box and try and stop Skattebo.  Their job gets 10X easier now knowing they don't have to deal with Tyson on the outside.  The Cyclones will load up to stop Skattebo, and I don't think QB Leavitt can beat them without Tyson.

Dillingham has done a tremendous job getting Arizona State to the Big 12 Championship despite being picked to finish last by the media.  This season is a success no matter what happens in this game.  I think the mentality is different for Matt Campbell and Iowa State.

Campbell has stated Big 12 Championships are the standard.  The Cyclones have come close in recent seasons and come up short to Oklahoma and Texas.  They no longer have to deal with those juggernauts and now have a golden opportunity to finally get that first elusive Big 12 championship, and I trust Campbell and company to make the right calls to make it happen against a team they can handle in ASU.  

Common opponents tell the story here which team is better.  Iowa State and Arizona State have six common opponents.  They are both 4-2 SU against them.  But the Cyclones have outgained those six teams by an average of 47 yards per game, while the Sun Devils have been outgained by 17 yards per game against those same six teams.  Bet Iowa State Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Jazz/Blazers OVER 225.5

Two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA square off Friday night when the Utah Jazz visit the Portland Trail Blazers.  The Jazz rank 29th in defensive rating while the Blazers rank 22nd.  I think both teams hang big numbers offensively tonight.

The Jazz and their opponents have gone for 225 or more combined points in six of their last eight games overall.  The Blazers and their opponents have gone for 221 or more combined points in five consecutive games, including 232 and 268 in their last two.

The Blazers and Jazz have combined for 236, 231 and 226 points in each of their last three meetings.  They have gone for 226 or more combined points seven of their last eight meetings, making for a 7-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 225.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

25* CFB Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on UNLV +4.5

UNLV was at a huge disadvantage the first time they played Boise State back on October 25th.  They were on a short week while Boise State was coming off a bye week playing on a Friday night.  The Rebels gave the Broncos everything they wanted in a 29-24 loss as 4-point dogs.

There were some takeaways from that game that make me believe the Rebels can pull off the upset in the rematch.  For starters, the Rebels held Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty to 128 rushing yards on 33 carries, an average of just 3.9 yards per carry.  That 3.9 yards per carry was the lowest Jeanty averaged against any opponent all season.

UNLV could have easily packed it in after that loss to Boise State.  Instead, the Rebels have gone 4-0 since to put themselves back in position to make the 12-team playoff.  They are in a 'win and in' scenario now, and I think they are ready to finally take the leap and prove they belong.

Boise State has been fortunate not to get knocked off here down the stretch.  They beat Nevada 28-21 as 23.5-point home favorites four games ago.  They were outgained 483 to 456 by San Jose State in a misleading final three weeks ago.  They escaped with a 17-13 win at Wyoming as 22.5-point favorites two weeks ago.  And they failed to cover in a 34-18 home win over Oregon State as 17.5-point favorites last week.  They really should be 0-4 ATS in their last four games.

Holding Jeanty to 3.9 per carry was no fluke as UNLV is elite at stopping the run.  The Rebels rank 10th in the country allowing 101.1 rushing yards per game and 15th allowing 3.2 per carry this season.  And that's why this is such a great matchup for the Rebels because the Broncos need to be able to run the ball to be effective because QB Maddux Madsen and the passing game is the weakness.  

He only completing 45% of his passes against Nevada, 53.8% against Wyoming and 51.5% against Oregon State in three of his past four games.  UNLV has far and away the better QB in Hajj-Malik Williams.  He has a 17-to-4 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 768 yards and 9 TD on 5.9 per carry this season.  I trust Williams to make more plays than Maddux in the rematch.  Bet UNLV Friday.

25* CFB Conference Championship TOTAL OF THE YEAR on UNLV/Boise State UNDER 59.5

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  After meeting in the MWC Championship Game last season, and meeting once in the regular season this season, this will be the 3rd meeting between UNLV and Boise State in a year.  It's safe to say they know each other inside and out, and that really favors defense.

The matchup also sets up well for an UNDER.  Both teams rely heavily on running the football which keeps the clock moving.  Well, the strength of both defenses is stopping the run.  That was the takeaway from Boise State's 29-24 win in the first meeting this season that saw just 53 combined points.

The Rebels held Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty to 128 rushing yards on 33 carries, an average of just 3.9 yards per carry.  That 3.9 yards per carry was the lowest Jeanty averaged against any opponent all season. Holding Jeanty to 3.9 per carry was no fluke as UNLV is elite at stopping the run.  The Rebels rank 10th in the country allowing 101.1 rushing yards per game and 15th allowing 3.2 per carry this season.

UNLV also needs to be able to run the ball to be effective on offense.  The Rebels rank 4th in the country in rushing averaging 254.1 yards per game but just 116th in passing at 179.9 yards per game.  Well, Boise State ranks 17th in the country against the run allowing just 106.6 rushing yards per game.  The Broncos are also 19th allowing just 3.4 yards per carry.

That first meeting between UNLV and Boise State was played in a dome in Las Vegas on a fast track and still only saw 53 combined points.  The rematch will be outdoors in the cold at Boise State with temps in the 30's Friday night.  I don't think that is being factored into this line enough, and a total of 59.5 is way too high for the rematch.

UNLV and its opponents have gone for 58 or fewer combined points in five of its last six games.  Boise State and its opponents have gone for 53 or fewer points in five of its last seven games.  Boise State ranks 89th in tempo while UNLV ranks 78th, so both are well into the bottom half of the country in terms of seconds in between snaps on offense.  Both defenses will have their way.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Tulane/Army AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 47.5

No game this season will be played at a slow pace than this AAC Championship Game.  Army ranks dead last (134th) in tempo snapping the ball every 33.9 seconds.  Tulane ranks 131st snapping the ball every 30.1 seconds.  There won't be many possessions in this game, and thus there won't be many opportunities for points.

Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall is elite at stopping the triple-option.  He faced Army twice the last two years while at Troy and beat them 19-0 in 2023 and 10-9 in 2022.  He beat Navy 35-0 this season a couple weeks ago at Tulane.  So Sumrall has held the triple-option teams to a combined 9 points in three meetings over the last three seasons, or an average of 3.0 points per game.

Both offenses need to be able to run the ball to be effective, and both defenses are great at stopping the run.  Tulane averages 212.9 rushing yards per game, and Army only allows 103.0 rushing yards per game.  Army averages 312.5 rushing yards per game, and Tulane only allows 124.2 rushing yards per game.  Tulane held Navy to 100 rushing yards on 35 attempts and 113 total yards in that 35-0 victory.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +4

I love the spot for the Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  They are in a quick revenge spot getting to host the Orlando Magic again tonight after losing 106-102 to them just two days earlier on Wednesday at home.

The difference in this game is the 76ers will have Paul George back and they didn't have him on Wednesday.  That will make a huge difference, and it should be enough for the 76ers to win this game outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

It's a tough spot for the Magic, who will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and their 10th game in 17 days.  The 76ers will only be playing their 4th game in 9 days.  The 76ers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 meetings with the Magic.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the 76ers Friday.

15* Rockets/Warriors NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston -3.5

The Houston Rockets are rolling going 9-3 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 3rd game in 8 days.  I expect a big effort from them tonight.

But this is more a fade of the Golden State Warriors than anything.  Injuries have hit the Warriors hard in recent weeks, and that's a big reason they are 0-5 SU in their last five games overall with all five losses coming by 4 points or more.

Things took a turn for the worse when they lost key backup PG De'Anthony Melton (10.3 PPG) to a season-ending ACL injury.  They have gotten worse now as Curry (22.6 PPG) and Green (8.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 5.9 APG) will both be out tonight.  Andrew Wiggins (17.2 PPG) is also questionable to play tonight.  

Houston will be out for revenge not only from a 127-121 (OT) loss to the Warriors in their first meeting this season, but also because they have actually lost 14 consecutive games to Golden State.  That's why they will not have a letdown tonight.  Bet the Rockets Thursday.

20* Packers/Lions NFC North No-Brainer on OVER 51

Note: I also like the Packers +3.5, but I like the OVER 51 more and didn't want to release both.  Consider the Packers +3.5 as a free pick.

The Detroit Lions are decimated by injuries on defense right now.  They lost their best player in Aidan Hutchinson, their best LB in Alex Anzalone and now they lost another starting LB in Malcolm Rodriquez last week.

But that's not where the injuries stop.  They have 11 defenders on IR and another three questionable in DT DJ Reader, DE Josh Paschal and DT Levi Onwuzurike.  Their front seven as currently constructed is one of the worst in the NFL.

We saw the Bears make a big comeback on them in the 2H last week when all these defenders went out with injuries.  The Bears scored all 20 of their points in the 2H.  I think the Packers are going to hang a big number on them Thursday.

Jordan Love is back healthy and in a groove.  He led the Packers to 38 points against the 49ers and followed it up with 30 points against the Dolphins, both at home in cold weather.  Now he gets to go indoors and face this hobbled Lions defense, so you can only imagine what he is going to do to them.

The Packers look fully healthy on offense with everyone listed as questionable already getting in limited practices as of Tuesday, but defensively they could be without LB Edgerrin Cooper, LB Isaiah McDuffie and CB Jaire Alexander.  Cooper still hasn't practiced this week as of Tuesday.

Detroit ranks 1st in scoring offense at 31.9 points per game, 2nd in total offense at 395.2 yards per game and 3rd at 6.4 yards per play.  Green Bay ranks 3rd in total offense at 382.8 yards per game, so this is a matchup of two of the top three offenses in the NFL in total offense.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Memphis Grizzlies -3

The Memphis Grizzlies are 12-5 SU & 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They are showing what they are capable of when healthy going 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with each of their last five wins coming by double-digits.  Their lone loss came at Dallas by 5.

The Sacramento Kings are getting too much respect from the books tonight as only 3-point road underdogs here.  The Kings are 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Bet the Grizzlies Thursday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Thunder/Raptors OVER 226.5

Both the Thunder and Raptors rank in the Top 13 in the NBA in pace.  This game will see a lot of possessions, and this total of 226.5 is too low for a game involving these two teams tonight.

The Raptors have gotten healthier in recent weeks and we have seen their offensive output increase scoring 119 or more points in five of their last nine games overall.  They have combined for at least 230 points with their opponents in six of their last nine games during this stretch.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off a pair of shootouts combining for 235 points with Houston and 239 points with Utah.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings with 226 or more combined points in four consecutive meetings, including 239 or more in three of those four.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Toronto Raptors +9.5

The Toronto Raptors are grossly undervalued this season.  They are 7-15 SU but 15-7 ATS as they have been competitive in almost every game.  They are playing their best basketball of the season right now, which has coincided with them being as healthy as they have been all season.

The Raptors are 5-4 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They only lost by 3 at Boston as 16.5-point dogs, upset the Pacers by 11 at home, upset the Timberwolves by 5 at home, upset the Heat by 3 at home and upset the Pacers by 11 at home.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four home games with four outright upset victories.

The Thunder are still pretty good even without Chet Holmgren, but they haven't been nearly as dominant without him.  They are 5-3 SU & 3-4-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They just clinched a spot in the NBA Cup semifinals with a win in their last game, so this is a prime letdown spot for the Thunder.  Bet the Raptors Thursday.

15* Timberwolves/Clippers NBA TV Late-Night BAILOUT on Minnesota -3.5

The spot really favors the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with a 109-80 blowout of the Lakers at home two days ago.

The Los Angeles Clippers are a very tired team right now.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win over Portland last night.  They will also be playing their 11th game in 18 days.  They remain without Kawhi Leonard, and now key bench piece Terance Mann just suffered a broken finger last night.

The Timberwolves are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Clippers.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Night Line Mistake on DePaul +16.5

Former Ohio State head coach Chris Holtmann is doing a tremendous turnaround job at DePaul in his first season on the job.  The Blue Demons are 7-0 SU & 5-2 ATS this season with five wins coming by 19 or more points.

Texas Tech struggled with two teams they shouldn't have, which makes me believe DePaul can stay within this inflated number.  The Red Raiders lost outright to St. Joseph's 78-77 as 10.5-point favorites on a neutral and only beat a down Syracuse team 79-74 as 11.5-point favorites on a neutral.  Those were by far their two toughest games of the season.  

The Red Raiders face a DePaul team that has pretty much matched them in terms of being great shooters.  The Blue Demons rank 2nd in effective field goal percentage and 10th in 3-point percentage hitting 41.2% from deep as a team.  Bet DePaul Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on DePaul/Texas Tech OVER 149.5

Texas Tech is a dead nuts OVER team going 6-0-1 OVER in all games this season with 151 or more combined points in six of their seven games.  They are one of the best shooting teams in the country ranking 6th in effective FG percentage and 7th in 3-point percentage hitting 42% from deep as a team.

The Red Raiders face a DePaul team that has pretty much matched them in terms of being great shooters.  The Blue Demons rank 2nd in effective field goal percentage and 10th in 3-point percentage hitting 41.2% from deep as a team.  They shoot a ton of 3-pointers with over 50% of their field goal attempts coming from deep, which favors OVERS.

DePaul is 5-2 OVER in all games this season with 151 or more combined points in five of their seven games this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on San Jose State +20

After a rough start to the season, proven head coach Tim Miles has the San Jose Spartans improving rapidly.  The Spartans have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with all five games decided by 16 points or less.

Now the Spartans are catching 20 points against a New Mexico team that is way down from last season.  That was evident with their 14-point loss at St. John's.  The Lobos split a pair of tournament games losing to ASU and then beating USC in their last two games coming in.

This is the ultimate letdown spot for New Mexico.  Coming off those two huge games against ASU and USC, and now with a game looming against their in-state rival on Saturday up next, this is a classic sandwich spot.  I don't think we get the Lobos' best effort here, and it's going to take their best effort to win this game by more than 20 points.  Bet San Jose State Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Bucks OVER 237

The Atlanta Hawks are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 2nd in pace this season and 20th in defensive rating. They are fully healthy for basically the first time all season and thriving offensively.  They have scored at least 117 points in five of their last six games overall.

The Milwaukee Bucks have also gotten healthy and have put up 122 or more points in five of their last six games overall.  They are a tough to tame as long as Giannis and Lillard are on the court at the same time.

The Bucks and Hawks have gone for 235, 253 and 237 combined points in their last three meetings.  This total of 237 is too short given these teams in their current state both very healthy and ready to run.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Atlanta Hawks +3.5

The Atlanta Hawks have gotten healthy and are playing up to their potential now.  They are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall beat the Cavaliers outright twice by 11 as 9-point road dogs and by 16 as 5.5-point home dogs.  The Cavaliers have only lost three games all season, and the other was to the Celtics by 3 on the road.

The spot really favors the Hawks tonight.  They had yesterday off while the Bucks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a win in Detroit last night.  That win clinched their spot in the NBA Cup East quarterfinals.  This is now a flat spot for the Bucks as they won't be nearly as motivated to beat the Hawks as they were to beat the Pistons last night.

The Hawks have actually won two of their last three trips to Milwaukee outright by 17 and by 15 points.  I fully expect them to win this game outright tonight as well.  Bet the Hawks Wednesday.

15* Baylor/UConn FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Baylor +3

The UConn Huskies are down several notches from the teams that won the National Championship each of the last two seasons.  But they continue to get respect from oddsmakers that they do not deserve.

That was evident in going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their recent tournament losing outright to Memphis as 8.5-point favorites, losing outright to Colorado as 14.5-point favorites and losing outright to Dayton by 18 as 7-point favorites.

Now things have gotten worse for the Huskies as they just lost their best player in Alex Karaban (15.9 PPG) in that loss to Dayton.  He was their best returning player by far, and I think the Huskies are going to be even more lost without him moving forward.

Baylor's two losses this season came to two of the best teams in the country in Tennessee and Gonzaga.  They have been battle-tested, also beating a very good St. John's team in OT.  I think UConn in their current state is far worse than all three of those teams.  Bet Baylor Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +8.5

The Portland Trail Blazers are 5-5 SU & 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with two of their losses coming by 7 points or fewer.  The only exceptions were road losses to three of the best teams in the NBA in the Thunder, Rockets and Grizzlies.

The Los Angeles Clippers are getting too much respect for their 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS run in their last nine games overall.  I think this is a letdown spot for them off thier upset home win over the Nuggets by 4 as 3-point dogs.

The Clippers have basically been eliminated from NBA Cup contention sitting at 1-2 in their group with a -6 point differential.  They trail the 3-0 Thunder who have a +55 point differential.

The Blazers are actually 2-1 in the same group with a legitimate shot to advance.  They will actually be the more motivated team if anything tonight.  They beat the Clippers 106-105 as 8-point road dogs earlier this season in their first meeting.  Bet the Blazers Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Houston Rockets +1

The Houston Rockets are 3-0 in NBA Cup play this season with a +55 point differential.  They are taking these NBA Cup games as seriously as anyone, and they should not be underdogs to the Sacramento Kings tonight.

The Kings are 0-3 in NBA Cup play and have been eliminated.  They won't be nearly as motivated as the Rockets as a result, and they just aren't playing well enough right now to be favored in this contest.

The Rockets are 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall with one of the losses coming by a single point.  The Kings are 2-7 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  While the Rockets are fully healthy, the Kings are without Trey Lyles and could be without Kevin Huerter tonight.

The Rockets are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings winning by 8, 25 and 18 points.  Bet the Rockets Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Thunder OVER 221.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are tied with the Suns and Spurs at 2-1 in their group.  Point differential is very close between all three, so the Thunder will keep their foot on the gas for four quarters tonight.  And that's a big reason I'm on the OVER 221.5 between them and the Utah Jazz in this one.

The Thunder rank 11th in pace while the Jazz rank 13th, so both teams like to play fast.  The Jazz are 29th in defensive rating, so this is a very low total for a game involving Utah.  Each of Utah's last seven games have seen a total of 225 or higher.

It's also a pretty low total for a game involving Oklahoma City.  We have seen totals of 222.5 or higher in eight of their last nine games.  So this is certainly a 'buy low' on the OVER in a game involving both of these teams right now.  

The Jazz and Thunder have combined for at least 226 points in eight of their last nine meetings, making for a 8-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 221.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on Philadelphia 76ers -4

It's time to 'buy low' on the Philadelphia 76ers.  They sit at 4-14 SU & 5-13 ATS this season largely due to injuries to Embiid, George and Maxey.  Well they have both George and Maxey back healthy now, and they are coming off a 111-96 win at Detroit as 2-point dogs.

The 76ers are fresh and ready to go tonight.  They have had the last two days off, and they will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  I'm expecting one of their best efforts of the season tonight since they are basically fully healthy now outside of Embiid and Drummond.

Speaking of health, the Hornets are extremely banged up right now, which is a big reason for their currently 5-game losing streak.  They are without three starters in Ball (31.1 PPG), Bridges (16.0 PPG) and Williams (10.4 PPG), and key bench player Mann (14.1 PPG) is out as well.  That's four of their top six scorers.

The 76ers are 7-0 SU in their last seven meetings with the Hornets with six wins by 7 points or more.  Bet the 76ers Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night BLOWOUT on St. Joseph's -5.5

I've been very impressed with the Saint Joseph Hawks this season against a very difficult schedule.  They have gone 5-2 SU this season despite already having to face Villanova, Texas Tech and Texas.  They actually upset Villanova at home and Texas Tech on a neutral.  They only lost to Texas by 9.

Princeton is 6-3 SU but 3-5 ATS this season.  The wins have not been impressive beating Iona by 1 as 12.5-point favorites and Northeastern by 3 as 7.5-point favorites.  The losses to Loyola by 5 as 2-point favorites, Wright State by 18 as 7.5-point favorites and Texas State by 3 as 6.5-point favorites are even more concerning.

Despite the easy schedule, Princeton ranks 213th in adjusted defensive efficiency.  Saint Joseph's ranks 90th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite playing the much tougher schedule.  Bet Saint Joseph's Tuesday.

20* Browns/Broncos ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 42

Bo Nix and this Denver offense are rolling right now.  The Broncos have now scored 28 or more points in five of their last eight games overall.  They are scoring at will against bad teams, and now they face another bad team in the Cleveland Browns.

The Browns are definitely an OVER team with Jameis Winston at quarterback.  He has played well for the most part but he is almost as likely to throw a costly INT that lead to easy points to the opposition as he is to throw a TD pass.  This offense has been opened up big time with Winston at QB.

It started with a 29-24 win over the Ravens as Winston threw for 334 yards and 3 TD in the win.  After a clunker with 3 INT against the Chargers, Winston threw for another 395 yards and 2 TD against the Saints.  Their defense was exposed in that game allowing 473 total yards to the Saints.  Winston led the 24-19 comeback in the snow against the Steelers last Thursday.

Injuries are a big problem for this Cleveland defense right now. They have five players on IR and another two players listed as out.  They traded DE Smith to the Lions and they just haven't been as good at getting after the QB without him as teams can focus all their attention on stopping Myles Garrett.  The Broncos are fully healthy on offense, but they just lost starting CB Riley Moss to injury last week, and I expect Winston to target his replacement.

The forecast looks great for a December game in Denver with no wind, no precipitation and temperatures approaching 40.  The way these two teams are trending with improved offenses and banged up defenses, I think this total of 42 is too low.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Portland Trail Blazers +7.5

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They had yesterday off while the Dallas Mavericks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 106-94 win in the altitude in Salt Lake City against the Utah Jazz last night.

Making matters worse for the Mavericks is the fact that they are very short-handed right now.  Doncic, Thompson, Marshall, Gafford and Exum are all either out or questionable.  Irving played 36 minutes last night and Washington 34.

The Blazers have been grossly undervalued in recent weeks going 5-4 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The highlights have been outright upset wins over the Timberwolves as 9-point dogs, the Timberwolves as 10-point dogs, the Hawks as 4-point dogs, the Rockets as 11.5-point dogs and the Kings as 7.5-point dogs.  They have a shot to win this game outright as well given the horrible spot for Dallas.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

20* Celtics/Cavs NBA TV No-Brainer on Cleveland +1

The Cleveland Cavaliers were knocked out of the playoffs by the Boston Celtics last year.  The Cavaliers then had their 15-0 start to the season come to an end in a 120-117 loss at Boston as 6.5-point dogs on November 19th.  It's safe to say the Cavaliers will be highly motivated for revenge when they get to host the Celtics this time around Sunday.

While the Cavaliers are almost fully healthy, the Celtics are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now with Horford, Holiday, Porzingis and White all listed as questionable for this one.  I would like the Cavaliers to win this game even if all four of those guys play, so it would only be a bonus if any of them sit.  Bet the Cavaliers Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on North Florida +16.5

I was on Nebraska +11 when they upset Creighton 74-63 on the road last time out.  I believe they are overvalued since.  I faded them with success with South Dakota +23 in their next game, and now I'm fading them again because they remain overvalued.  Plus, they have their Big Ten opener against Michigan State on deck and could be looking ahead to that contest.

The win over Creighton isn't as good as it looks on paper.  Creighton is nowhere near the team they were a year ago.  The Bluejays went on to lose 71-53 to San Diego State as 4.5-point favorites, lost to Texas A&M 77-73 as 4-point dogs and only beat Notre Dame 80-76 as 8-point favorites.  The Bluejays are 1-6-1 ATS this season now consistently failing to live up to expectations.

North Florida is 5-2 SU & 5-1 ATS this season with a couple very impressive wins.  They upset South Carolina 74-71 as 18-point road underdogs and upset Georgia Tech 105-93 as 13.5-point road dogs.  They also only lost by 13 as 15-point dogs at Georgia.  They have proven they can hang with the big boys, and they will be looking forward to the opportunity of proving it again today.  Bet North Florida Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Pacers/Grizzlies UNDER 244

The Indiana Pacers and Memphis Grizzlies are both teams that like to play fast.  But this total is too high, and there's a ton of value on the UNDER.

Indiana isn't playing as fast as last season ranking 8th in pace.  A big reason they cannot play as fast is because they are short-handed right now due to injury.  They are without Nesmith and Sheppard and will likely remain without Nembhard today.

The Pacers and their opponents have combined for 236 or fewer points in four consecutive games.  The Grizzlies and their opponents have combined for 242 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games.

The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with 226, 219 and 212 combined points between the Pacers and Grizzlies.  They have combined for 242 or fewer points in six consecutive meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Chargers/Falcons OVER 47.5

The Los Angeles Chargers have been an under team this season and they do have a great defense.  However, they have benefited from facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL through the first 10 weeks.  They faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston and Will Levis in the first 10 weeks.  Mahomes was missing many of his key weapons.

We saw what the Chargers defense was against two high-powered offenses in Cincinnati and Baltimore.  They won a 34-27 shootout and gave up 452 total yards to the Bengals, including 356 passing and 3 TD from Burrow.  They lost a 30-23 shootout with the Ravens while allowing 389 total yards, including 212 rushing.

The Chargers are showing what they are capable of offensively when they are basically fully healthy.  They put up 26 points on the Saints and weren't pressed so they took their foot off the gas late in that game.  They put up 27 points on the Browns on the road and 27 points on the Titans at home.  Those are two very underrated defenses.  They put up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Bengals, and 23 points against the Ravens.

Now the Chargers face another dead nuts OVER team in the Atlanta Falcons with a great offense and terrible, banged up defense.  The Falcons rank 8th in total offense at 361.5 yards per game and 9th at 6.1 yards per play.  They rank 25th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game and 24th in total defense at 357.1 yards per game.  

The Falcons are fully healthy on offense, but they are dealing with a plethora of injuries on defense even coming out of their bye week.  They have the worst pass rush in the NFL, so Herbert should have all day to throw it.  The Chargers will be without RB JK Dobbins, but they have been pass-heavy in recent weeks and will be even more pass-heavy in this game with the matchup in their favor against this horrid Atlanta pass defense.  The Chargers are beat up on defense missing 4 players in the secondary, LB Denzel Perryman and possibly LB Daiyan Henley.  They also have three LB's on IR.

The Chargers are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 61 points with Cincinnati and 53 with Baltimore.  The Falcons and their opponents have gone for 48 or more combined points in each of their last four home games.  Conditions will be perfect for a shootout in the dome in Atlanta.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts -2.5

The Indianapolis Colts are clinging on to their hopes of making the playoffs in the AFC.  They sit at 5-7 this season, and they are looking at this as a must-win Sunday against the New England Patriots.  I expect them to get the win and cover today in this must-win spot.

The Colts are coming off a misleading 24-6 home loss to Detroit in which they had so many big plays called back by penalties.  I think they clean that up this week, and finally get to face an opponent in the Patriots they can handle after going through the gauntlet of Detroit, NYJ, Buffalo, Minnesota and Houston in their last five games.

Now they get to take on the Patriots, who are just 3-9 SU & 4-7-1 ATS this season.  There was nothing misleading about their 34-15 loss to the Dolphins last week, other than the fact that it could have been worse as they trailed 31-0 going into the 4th quarter and scored both TD's in garbage time, including a defensive TD.  New England was outgained 373 to 269 by the Dolphins, or by 104 total yards.

Injuries are a big issue for the Patriots right now as they are as banged up as just about any team in the NFL.  They have six players on IR, two players out and another nine players questionable for this one.  Injuries are a big reason I am fading them this week.

It's easy to see why the Patriots are so banged up as they will be playing for a 13th consecutive week as they have not had their bye yet.  They are gassed, especially after playing three of their last four games on the road.  I love the spot for the Colts this week to get right against much weaker competition than they have been facing for over a month.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Texans/Jaguars OVER 43

The Houston Texans are becoming more of an OVER team in recent weeks with all of their injuries on defense, plus getting their best playmaker in WR Nico Collins back from injury.  They are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall combining for 49 points with Detroit, 44 points with Dallas and 59 points with Tennessee.

We saw how poor a shape their defense was in last week when they allowed Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans to hang 32 points on them.  Tennessee had previously topped 20 points only once all season.  Five starters for the Texans are either questionable or out in DE Will Anderson, DT Fatukasi, LB Al-Shaair, S Ward and NB Pitre.  DE Denico Autry is also questionable.

Jacksonville is likely to get Trevor Lawrence back from injury this week, which is why this line has gone down and this total has gone up.  He got in a limited practice this week and feels good coming off a bye week.  This Jacksonville offense is night and day better with Lawrence at quarterback.  Otherwise they are pretty much fully healthy on offense coming out of their bye.

The Jaguars have one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  They rank 30th in scoring at 28.7 points per game allowed, dead last 32nd in total defense at 413.7 yards per game and dead last 32nd at 6.3 yards per play.  Their changed schemes this season going to almost exclusively man-to-man, and they give up a lot of big plays because they don't have the players to run that scheme.

Houston just got Nico Collins back from injury two weeks ago, and it's no surprise the Texans have come through with two of their best offensive performances of the season.  They hung 34 points on Dallas and 27 on a very good Tennessee defense.  I think they can do the heavy lifting here, and the Jaguars will do enough to get us up and OVER this 43-point total.  The Texans and Jaguars have combined for at least 44 points in seven of their last nine meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* New Mexico/Hawaii MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico -2.5

The New Mexico Lobos are 5-6 in Bronco Mendenhall's first season on the job.  Now they are one win away from bowl eligibility and will be highly motivated to get that all-important 6th victory.

While the Lobos are motivated, the Hawaii Warriors sit at 4-7 on the season and eliminated from bowl contention.  I don't like their mindset, especially after watching them get blasted by a mediocre Utah State team last time out.  They lost 55-10 at Utah State and allowed 580 yards to the Aggies with only 309 themselves, getting outgained by 171 yards.

They lost QB Brayden Schager late in that game to injury and he may not be able to play in this game due to injury.  Whether he plays or not, like New Mexico to win this game and cover.  I just don't think Hawaii is very good and they're definitely not in as good a frame of mind as the Lobos.

New Mexico has one of the best offenses in the country.  They score 33.8 points per game while ranking 4th in total offense at 484.5 yards per game and 7th at 7.0 yards per play.  They have tremendous balance rushing for 249 yards per game and throwing for 236 yards per game behind one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country in Dampier.

Hawaii ranks 78th against the run allowing 153 yards per game and 87th allowing 4.5 yards per carry.  Their run D has been particularly poor of late, allowing 290 rushing yards to UNLV and 321 to Utah State in their last two games.  They definitely let go of the rope against Utah State, and they will let go of it again if New Mexico gets an early lead.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Air Force -3.5

Air Force has been a different team down the stretch.  The Falcons are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They upset Fresno State 36-28 as 9.5-point home dogs, upset Oregon State 28-0 as 3-point home dogs and upset Nevada 22-19 as 3-point road dogs.

While the Falcons are improving a ton defensively, it's the fact that they have found a running game that has made them more competitive.  Air Force rushed for 344 yards on Fresno State, 270 yards on Oregon State and 318 yards on Nevada.

That's bad news for San Diego State, which cannot stop the run here down the stretch and looks to have pretty much quit.  The Aztecs are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They lost 56-24 at Boise State, 21-16 at home to New Mexico, 41-20 at UNLV and 41-20 at Utah State.

The Aztecs allowed 541 total yards including 219 rushing to Boise, then 300 rushing to New Mexico, 253 rushing to UNLV and 322 rushing to Utah State.  It's safe to say their defense cannot stop the run, and they are probably out of gas playing for a 6th consecutive week.  I give them almost zero chance of stopping this Air Force triple-option, which they haven't faced yet this season.  Bet Air Force Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on UC-Irvine -9.5

UC-Irvine is 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS this season in lined games.  The Anteaters are loaded with four returning starters, and they will be motivated to cap off a 3-0 sweep in this Western Slam round robin tournament.

Towson is 4-4 SU & 3-4 ATS this season.  Towson's four wins came against a Division II team, James Madison, Nicholls State and Morgan State.  They only won those last three games by 6 or fewer points each.  They lost by 26 at South Carolina earlier this season.

These teams have two common opponents now to compare them to due to this round robin format.  UC-Irvine beat Kennesaw State by 17 and Kent State by 12, while Towson lost to Kent State by 11 and lost to Kennesaw State by 4.  I fully expect the Anteaters to win this game by double-digits tonight.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Hawks -4.5

The Atlanta Hawks are fully healthy and playing up to their potential. After upsetting the Cleveland Cavaliers 135-124 as 9.5-point road dogs, they backed it up with an even more impressive 117-101 win as 6-point home dogs.

Now the Hawks hit the road to take on a Charlotte Hornets team that is dealing with a ton of injuries right now.  The Hornets have Ball, Mann, Bridges, Richards and both Williams either out or questionable tonight after not playing last night.  Now they'll be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back while also short-handed, and I don't expect it to go well for them.

The Hawks can handle these back-to-back situations better than the Hornets right now because they are fully healthy and a deep team.  This price is a little short on the Hawks tonight given how they are playing, plus all the injuries the Hornets are dealing with in this back-to-back spot.  Bet the Hawks Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on NC State +3.5

I love the spot for NC State Saturday.  The Wolfpack sit at 5-6 on the season and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They are clearly fighting to become bowl eligible here down the stretch, and I like their mental state much better than that of North Carolina right now.

The Tar Heels sit at 6-5 this season and already bowl eligible.  Mack Brown has announced he is stepping down following a ugly 41-21 loss at Boston College last week.  The Tar Heels were outgained 480-212 by the Eagles, or by 268 total yards.  It really looked like they just quit, and I don't trust many of their players to show up Saturday with their futures in limbo now.

NC State took Wake Forest, Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Duke to the wire in four tough losses here down the stretch.  They also upset Cal on the road as 9-point dogs and blasted Stanford by 31 at home as 9.5-point favorites.  Last time out they only lost 30-29 as 7.5-point dogs at Georgia Tech, which beat Miami.  They actually outgained the Yellow Jackets in that game.

NC State should be the fresher team here after playing Georgia Tech last Thursday. They get an extra two days to prep for this game, and they also had a bye prior to that GT game.  They couldn't possibly be more fresh, more prepared and more focused for a win here.  I think they way they've fought down the stretch will pay off here with an outright win over a UNC team with questionable motivation.  Bet NC State Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on UAB/Charlotte OVER 60

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to UAB (3-8) and Charlotte (4-7) Saturday.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers play fast and they play no defense.  They rank 33rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  They rank 121st in scoring defense allowing 34.7 points per game.  And UAB has played much better offensively since switching to Jalen Kitna at QB, averaging 428.2 total yards per game and 33 points per game in their last five games.  The OVER is 7-1-1 in UAB's last nine games overall with 54 or more combined points in all nine games.

Charlotte is also a team with a terrible defense.  The 49ers rank 124th in scoring defense allowing 35.8 points per game.  I think both offenses will have plenty of success even though these aren't two of the best offenses in the country.  Charlotte is 5-1 OVER in its last six games overall with 58 or more combined points in five of those six games.  There will be no wind or rain today in Charlotte so the forecast looks great for a shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan State ML -125

I love the spot for the Michigan State Spartans Saturday.  They sit at 5-6 on the season and one win shy of bowl eligibility in Jonathan Smith's first season on the job.  The Spartans will be extra motivated to make a bowl and to get a win for their Seniors on Senior Day.

Rutgers is already bowl eligible at 6-5 on the season and won't be nearly as motivated.  I think it's a tough spot for the Scarlet Knights after blowing a 1-point lead in the final seconds at home in a 38-31 loss to Illinois.  They have played three straight hard-fought games the last three weeks against Illinois, Maryland and Minnesota and I question how much they'll have left in the tank here.

Michigan State has played a much tougher schedule than Rutgers this season.  The Spartans have played the 26th-ranked strength of schedule while the Scarlet Knights have played the 54th.  And Michigan State still has put up better numbers than Rutgers despite the tougher schedule.

The Spartans are dead even in yards per play differential averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowing 5.4 per play on defense.  Rutgers is has a -0.7 yards per play differential, averaging 5.4 yards per play on offense but giving up 6.1 yards per play on defense.  The Spartans are the better team, have the motivational advantage and are at home here.  Bet Michigan State on the Money Line Saturday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Old Dominion/Arkansas State OVER 58.5

There are going to be a lot of possessions in this game between Old Dominion and Arkansas State Saturday because both play fast.  The Monarchs rank 12th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.4 seconds, while the Red Wolves rank 20th snapping it every 24.0 seconds.

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired.  Arkansas State ranks 109th allowing 31.5 points per game, 124th allowing 453.6 yards per game and 128th allowing 6.8 yards per play.  Old Dominion ranks 84th allowing 27.6 points per game, 106th allowing 410.5 yards per game and 87th allowing 5.8 yards per play.

This Old Dominion offense has been humming lately and will get whatever it wants against Arkansas State.  The OVER is 3-1 in Monarchas' last four games overall beating Georgia Southern 47-19 for 66 combined points behind 560 total yards, losing 28-20 at Appalachian State for 48 combined points despite gaining 498 yards, losing 35-32 to James Madison for 67 combined points and losing 42-35 to Marshall despite 513 total yards.

Arkansas State has gone OVER the total in three of its last five combining for 72 points with Southern Miss, 65 with Troy and 74 with Louisiana.  They did only combine for 49 points with Monroe, but the Warhawks play at the 2nd-lowest tempo in the country.

I think this game will be played freely with neither team having much to play for.  Old Dominion has been eliminated from bowl contention at 4-7.  Arkansas State has already clinched bowl eligibility at 7-4, but they have already been eliminated from Sun Belt Championship contention.  I like backing OVERS late in the season between two teams with nothing to play for.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Middle Tennessee/FIU OVER 51.5

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to Middle Tennessee (3-8) and Florida International (3-8) Saturday.

I think we'll see a shootout today with both offenses opening up the entire playbook against two suspect defenses. The forecast looks great for a shootout in Florida with temps in the 70's, only 10 MPH winds and a small chance of precipitation.

Florida International ranks 76th in scoring defense at 25.9 points per game and 73rd allowing 370.4 yards per game.  Middle Tennessee ranks 119th in scoring defense allowing 34.2 points per game, 122nd allowing 447.9 yards per game and 126th allowing 6.6 yards per play.

Middle Tennessee is 8-3 to the OVER 51.5 on the season combining for 54 or more points with its opponents in eight of its 11 games.  FIU is 7-3 OVER in its last 10 games overall with 51 or more combined points in seven of those 10 games.  This is a very low total for a game involving these two teams with nothing to play for.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on South Florida/Rice OVER 53.5

The South Florida Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 1st in the entire country in tempo and by a wide margin, snapping the ball every 20.5 seconds.  They have an elite offense and a vulnerable defense.  This total of 53.5 is very low for a game involving South Florida right now.

The Bulls have topped this total themselves in their last two games.  They beat Charlotte 59-24 for 83 combined points and racked up 425 rushing yards in the process.  They beat Tulsa 63-30 last week and racked up 715 total yards.  I don't expect them to take their foot off the gas against Rice this week, either.

Rice has a very good quarterback in EJ Warner.  The Owls have really been through a gauntlet of opposing defenses here down the stretch and have gone under the total in four of their last five.  I think that has provided us value to back an OVER in a game involving Rice, which I did last week with success in a 40-14 loss to UAB with a closing total of 51.5.

Rice ranks in the top half of the country in tempo at 64th, so there are going to be a ton of possessions in this game.  Neither team has anything to play for as USF clinched a bowl last week, while Rice sits at 3-8 on the season with an interim head coach.  I love taking OVERS late in the season when nothing is at stake because it tends to favor offense over defense as both teams are loose and playing freely.

South Florida and its opponents have combined for 55 or more points in eight of its last 10 games.  Rice and South Florida combined for 71 points in their meeting last season.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on UTSA +7

The UTSA Roadrunners are one of the most improved teams in the country from the first half of the season until now.  After a 1-4 start, they have gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and really should be 5-0 during this stretch.

The wins have been impressive.  It started with a 38-24 home win over FAU as 4.5-point favorites.  They went on to blow a 28-point lead to Tulsa in their next game losing 46-45 as 9.5-point favorites.  They could have easily packed it in at that point, but they have responded as well as possible and that's a reflection of their head coach.

They beat Memphis 44-36 as 7-point home dogs, and that's a 10-2 Memphis team that just beat Tulane. They crushed North Texas 48-27 as 1.5-point home favorites and crushed Temple 51-27 as 17-point favorites.  Their defense is improving, but their offense is hitting on all cylinders averaging 45.2 points per game over their last five.

The spot is a terrible one for Army. The Black Knights opened 9-0 this season against one of the softest schedules in the country. They finally stepped up in class last week and got blasted 49-14 at Notre Dame.  That loss eliminated them from 12-team playoff consideration, and I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

That's especially the case with Army knowing they already have a spot in the AAC Championship Game against Tulane clinched.  They will be looking forward to that game if anything, making this a sandwich spot for the Black Knights.  I don't like their mental state coming into this one.

I also love the matchup for UTSA.  They are terrible against the pass, but that won't matter against Army.  The Roadrunners rank 9th in the country against the run allowing 100.5 rushing yards per game and 11th nationally allowing just 3.1 yards per carry.  They are equipped to stop triple-option teams like Army.  This is a game I fully expect the Roadrunners to win outright, but getting +7 with them is an absolute gift.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

15* CBB Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Bonaventure -2.5

St. Bonaventure is 6-1 this season with its only loss coming yesterday in a 72-67 loss to Utah State as 6.5-point underdogs.  That's a very good Utah State team that is 6-0 this season with four blowout wins and a 77-69 upset win over Iowa as 3-point dogs.

Northern Iowa is just 3-3 SU this season with some very concerning results.  The Panthers lost by 20 at home to UC-Irvine and by 20 to North Texas yesterday as only 4-point dogs.  We are getting the Bonnies pretty cheap today as only 2.5-point favorites against the Panthers.  Bet St. Bonaventure Friday.

15* NBA Friday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Raptors +8.5

The Toronto Raptors are 13-6 ATS this season and have been very competitive in almost every game, especially here of late.  The Raptors are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with a 2-point loss at Detroit and a 3-point loss at Boston as 16.5-point dogs.

The Raptors won 119-93 as 1.5-point dogs at New Orleans last time out to just show how undervalued they really are right now.  They are catching too many points in Miami as 8.5-point dogs as well.

The Heat aren't exactly blowing out the competition.  They are 8-8 SU & 7-9 ATS this season with just three wins by more than 8 points all season.

I don't see the Heat being that motivated to win this NBA Cup game tonight.  They lost their last NBA Cup game to the Bucks at home to fall to 1-2 in NBA Cup play this season, while the Bucks improved to 3-0. That game was their last stand if they wanted to advance in the NBA Cup, but they are all but done for now.  Bet the Raptors Friday.

20* Nebraska/Iowa NBC No-Brainer on Nebraska +4

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have a huge weight lifted off their shoulders.  They were previously on a 0-9 run when sitting on five wins looking for their 6th and bowl eligibility the last several seasons.  They got that monkey off their back with a dominant 44-25 win over Wisconsin last week, and now I expect them to be playing loose and freely today against their hated rivals in the Iowa Hawkeyes.

The Hawkeyes were fortunate Maryland QB Billy Edwards got hurt in the 1st quarter of their 29-13 win at Maryland last week.  It changed the entire game.  That result is making Iowa a bigger favorite than they should be against Nebraska this week.  It's also a Terrapins team that looks to have quit on the season.

Nebraska has a huge advantage over Iowa at quarterback this week.  5-star QB Dillon Raiola is getting comfortable with Dana Holgorsen as his coordinator, and the Huskers racked up 473 total yards on the Badgers last week.  Iowa is down to third-string QB Jackson Stratton.  He went just 10-of-14 passing for 76 yards against Maryland last week.

Iowa needs to be able to run the football to have success.  I know Matt Rhule will do everything he can to stack the box to try and stop Kaleb Johnson, who had 35 carries against Maryland last week with a long of 13.  If they stop Johnson, I don't think Stratton is good enough to beat them.  

Each of the last six meetings between Nebraska and Iowa have been decided by one score.  And this is the best Huskers team during this stretch that the Hawkeyes will have to deal with this season.  This is not close to the best Iowa team during this stretch.  Bet Nebraska Saturday.

25* MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State +6

Utah State has been competitive in five of its last six games with the lone exception being a 49-28 loss at Washington State.  They only lost by 16 to UNLV, by 5 to New Mexico, beat Wyoming by 2, crushed Hawaii 55-10 and dominated San Diego State 41-20.  

Those last two games were very impressive.  The Aggies racked up 580 total yards on Hawaii and held them to just 309, outgaining them by 271 yards.  Hawaii had been playing very well going into that game.  They racked up 488 more yards against San Diego State last week.

While Utah State sits at just 4-7 on the season, I think they'll be treating this as their bowl game.  They could have packed it in a lot sooner if they wanted to, but it just goes to show the character of this team to finish the way they have.

This is a tough spot for Colorado State.  Their dreams of making the Mountain West Championship Game were all but crushed with a 28-22 loss at Fresno State last week.  Now they no longer control their own destiny, instead they'll need to win this game and have UNLV lose at home to Nevada as a near 3-touchdown favorite.  That's not going to happen and they know it.

But Colorado State has been living on borrowed time all season.  The Rams are actually getting outgained by nearly 7 yards per game on the season.  Utah State is only getting outgained by roughly 5 yards per game on the season to compare.  These teams are much closer to even than this line would indicate, and getting +6 with the Aggies is tremendous value today.  Bet Utah State Friday.

20* Miami Ohio/Bowling Green ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 42.5

The forecast is a big reason for this play on the UNDER.  Temps will be around 30 with 20-25 MPH winds and gusts as high as 40 MPH.  There's a lot at stake with a trip to the MAC Championship on the line for both teams, so it will be played close to the vest.

Both teams play slow.  Bowling Green ranks 118th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 29.0 seconds.  Miami ranks 120th in tempo snapping the ball every 29.0 seconds as well.  There will be very few possessions in this game, and both teams are led by their defenses.

One of the best players in the country that not many know about is Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin.  He leads the entire country in receiving with 92 receptions for 1,294 yards and 9 TD.  Fannin is questionable to play Friday and my best guess is he won't be healthy enough to play.  

The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings with 27, 30 and 41 combined points in the last three.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Memphis/Tulane ESPN No-Brainer on Memphis +14

It's time to 'sell high' on the Tulane Green Wave.  Tulane is 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It's safe to say this is the peak of the market on the Green Wave now.  They don't have a lot to play for this week as they are already locked into the AAC Championship Game against Army.  They aren't likely to make the 12-team playoff with Boise State controlling its own fate.

The Green Wave have taken advantage of an easy schedule.  Their last three games were cake walks against Navy without QB Blake Horvath, and dead Temple and Charlotte teams.  They beat North Texas by 8 and Rice by 14 in the two games prior.  And the other two wins came against UAB and South Florida.

This is a big step up in class for Tulane having to face Memphis, which also is 9-2 this season.  While the Tigers have been eliminated from AAC Championship contention, then continue to play hard beating Rice 27-20 and UAB 53-18 in their last two games.  Now they want to prove that they can beat the top dogs in Tulane, and I think the Tigers will be as motivated as they've been for any game this season.

I know Memphis' best effort is good enough to stay within two touchdowns of Tulane.  Memphis is 13-4 SU in its last 17 meetings with Tulane with only one loss by more than 14 points.  That makes for a 16-1 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 14-point spread.  Bet Memphis Thursday.

15* Giants/Cowboys FOX ANNIHILATOR on OVER 37.5

This total has been adjusted down too much for both teams having backup quarterbacks.  I think there's value on the OVER, especially given the circumstances with both teams playing freely with not much to play for from here on out.  It's also indoors in perfect scoring conditions in Dallas.

I'm hoping the Giants go to Drew Lock, who is their best backup QB instead of Tommy DeVito.  It looks like DeVito is going to be a game-time decision, and I'll like this OVER either way, but this total will balloon if Lock is announced the starter.

Dallas is coming off a 34-26 win at Washington with a huge offensive performance even with Cooper Rush at QB.  That game saw 60 combined points.  Rush went 24-of-32 passing for 247 yards and 2 TD.  Now reinforcements are on the way with No. 2 receiver Brandin Cooks coming off IR this week.

This Dallas defense is pathetic, and whoever is under center for the Giants is going to have success.  The Cowboys have allowed at least 26 points in six consecutive games and an average of 33.0 points per game during this stretch.  The Cowboys are also allowing 37.4 points per game at home this season.

The Giants came out of their bye and laid an absolute egg defensively, allowing 30 points and 450 total yards to the Bucs.  It looks like they have pretty much quit on that side of the football.  I don't think either of these defenses can be trusted with a total of 37.5, which is about as low as you'll ever see for an indoor game in today's NFL.  

The Cowboys and Giants have combined for at least 39 points in nine of their last 11 meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Bears/Lions CBS No-Brainer on OVER 48

The Detroit Lions rank 1st in the NFL in scoring offense at 32.7 points per game.  While they are loaded on offense, they are vulnerable on defense without DE Aidan Hutchinson and LB Alex Anzalone, arguably their two best defensive players.  They are also without starting CB Carlton Davis III this week.

The Chicago Bears have been a different offense since firing their coordinator.  They put up 391 total yards on the Packers in their first game with the new coordinator.  They put up 27 points and 398 yards on the Vikings last week in their second game without them.  This offense is trending up, and the Bears now have the firepower to go score for score with the Lions, which they are going to be forced to do.

The Bears and Lions have combined for 51, 57 and 61 points in three of their last four meetings.  It's going to be perfect conditions for a shootout indoors in Detroit.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Thunder/Warriors ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City ML -135

I love the spot for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  They are rested and ready to go playing just their 2nd game in 7 days with their lone result during this stretch being a 130-109 blowout as 3.5-point favorites at Sacramento.

The Golden State Warriors are broken since losing De'Anthony Melton (10.3 PPG) to a season-ending ACL injury.  He was huge for them off the bench in giving Stephen Curry (22.4 PPG) a breather.  Now Curry injured his knee last game and is highly questionable to play tonight.  My best guess is the Warriors will be cautious and sit him.  Jonathan Kuminga (13.3 PPG) is also questionable with an illness.

The Warriors are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  They only beat a depleted Pelicans team by 4 as 10.5-point favorites.  They lost outright by 10 as 3.5-point favorites at San Antonio.  And they lost outright by 8 as 13-point home favorites against a depleted Nets team playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The rest spot is much worse for the Warriors, who will be playing their 4th game in 6 days.  The Thunder should be bigger favorites tonight, and this line will balloon if Curry is ruled out.  I like OKC to win the game either way.  Bet the Thunder on the Money Line Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago Bulls +10.5

It's time to 'sell high' on the Orlando Magic tonight.  The Magic are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  They have only been favored by double-digits once during this stretch, so the price is getting very high to back them now.

That double-digit favorite role came against the lowly Washington Wizards, who the Bulls just beat 127-108 last night.  And because of the blowout nature of that win, the Bulls weren't pressed to play their starters big minutes.

The Bulls should still be pretty fresh tonight, especially since they had two days off prior to that win over the Wizards.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 4 days.  This line is adjusted up too much for the Bulls playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and we'll take advantage.  

In the last nine meetings between Chicago and Orlando, the Bulls have only lost once by more than 9 points.  This line is inflated.  Bet the Bulls Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Miami Heat -3

The Miami Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  But that's the only reason this line is only Miami -3 over Charlotte.  I think this number is adjusted down too much for the spot for Miami.

I think the Heat will come back motivated from their 3-point loss to the Bucks last night.  The Heat should still be pretty fresh when you consider this will be just their 3rd game in 9 days.  They are also fully healthy right now with a pretty deep bench, so they can handle these back-to-backs better than most.

Speaking of health, the Charlotte Hornets will be without four of their top six scorers in Bridges (16.0 PPG), Mann (14.1 PPG), Richards (11.0 PPG) and Williams (10.4 PPG).  It did not go well for the Hornets last time out losing 95-84 at home to the Orlando Magic, who were without Suggs and Banchero.

The Heat own the Hornets going 5-0 SU in the last five meetings.  That domination should continue tonight given how short-handed Charlotte is right now.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Milwaukee +13

The Milwaukee Panthers are loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that won 20 games last year.  The Panthers are 5-2 SU this season with their two losses coming early.  They have gone 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS since and will be looking to make a statement at UCF tonight.

Even though the Panthers returned four starters, their top three scorers are actually Division 1 transfers as Bart Lundy did a great job in the portal.  All three have either played for him before or for his assistant.  McKee (16.0 PPG), Fulks (14.7 PPG) and Stillwell (12.7 PPG) are all fitting in nicely.

UCF is 4-2 SU & 2-4 ATS this season.  The Knights lost to the two best teams they played in Wisconsin by 16 and LSU by 9 on neutrals.  They did beat Texas A&M by 3 at home, but they haven't been able to get margin on anyone.  They only beat Purdue-Fort Wayne by 7, FAU by 6 and Tennessee Tech by 11.  They haven't won a game yet by more than 11 points.  Bet Milwaukee Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on South Dakota +23

I was on Nebraska +11 when they upset Creighton 74-63 on the road last time out.  But now I'm fading the Huskers here tonight because I think they are overvalued off that win, and it's a huge letdown spot for them off that big in-state rivalry game that takes place every year.

The win over Creighton isn't as good as it looks on paper.  Creighton is nowhere near the team they were a year ago.  The Bluejays went on to lose 71-53 to San Diego State as 4.5-point favorites last night.  They are 1-5 ATS this season now consistently failing to live up to expectations.

I've been impressed with South Dakota this season.  The Coyotes are 6-2 SU with their lone losses coming by 19 at Iowa and by 9 at Southern Indiana.  I backed them in that game against Iowa, which I have power rated similarly to Nebraska.  

Iowa was only a 19-point closing favorite at home against South Dakota, and Nebraska is now a 23-point home favorite.  There's clearly value on the Coyotes given the letdown spot for the Huskers.  Bet South Dakota Wednesday.

15* Lakers/Suns TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Phoenix -2

I love the spot for the Phoenix Suns tonight.  They are rested and motivated and getting healthy.  They have been off since November 20th, getting the last five days off.  This extra rest is allowing both Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal to return from injury tonight, so the Suns are at full strength for basically the first time this season.

It's great timing for this NBA Cup game against the Los Angeles Lakers, the team that is in 1st place in their group at 2-0 this season with a +11 point differential.  The Suns are 1-1 with a -8 differential, so this is a must-win for them if they want to advance out of group play.  The Lakers could actually afford a loss, but obviously they don't want to.  I just think the motivation is higher for the Suns given the current standings.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings.  Getting the Suns as only 2-point home favorites tonight given the situation is a gift.  Bet the Suns Tuesday.

20* Bucks/Heat TNT No-Brainer on Miami -2

The Miami Heat are fully healthy and rested right now and a dangerous team when that's the case.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 8 days and will be motivated for a NBA Cup win tonight.

The Heat will be extra motivated considering the Milwaukee Bucks are 2-0 with a +26 point differential in their group, while the Heat are 1-1 with a +11 point differential.  They have a chance to catch and even surpass the Bucks in their group if they win by 15-plus.  But at the very least they have to win this game if they want to get out of their group.

The Bucks won't be nearly as motivated knowing they are sitting pretty in 1st place in their group.  Of course they don't want to lose, but I don't believe they'll be playing with the same type of edge that the Heat will be given the standings.  

This has been a good matchup for the Heat as they are 4-2 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet the Heat Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Penn State +2

Penn State will be one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten this season.  They went 16-17 (9-11 Big Ten) in Mike Rhoades' first season on the job last season.  Rhoades brings back three starters from that team and added help on the wing and up front.

The Nittany Lions are 6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS this season beating Binghamton 108-66 as 20.5-point favorites, UMBC 103-54 as 22.5-point favorites, St. Francis PA 92-62 as 31.5-point favorites, VA Tech 86-64 as 7.5-point favorites, IPFW 102-89 as 17-point favorites and Fordham 85-66 as 16-point favorites.  As you can see, the Nittany Lions have won all six of their games by at least 13 points and by an average of nearly 30 points per game.  

Returning starters Hicks (15.8 PPG, Baldwin (15.7 PPG, 7.7 APG) and Kern (11.8 PPG) have made a big impact.  Returning role players Dunn (7.5 PPG) and Johnson (11.5 PPG) have stepped up their games.  And NIU transfer Niederhauser (12.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG) has been impressive.

Penn State should not be an underdog to Clemson, which brought back three starters but only has three double-digit scores to this point.  I think the Tigers are getting too much respect for their win over San Francisco yesterday.  They lost by 13 at 4-point dogs at Boise State in their toughest game this season, and this one won't be any easier.  Bet Penn State Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Late-Night BAILOUT on Thunder/Kings OVER 223.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder play fast racing 7th in the NBA in pace.  They will be looking to run even more tonight considering how fresh they'll be after having the last four days off.

The Sacramento Kings have gotten back to healthy with the exception of Malik Monk.  They have gone under the total in three straight games, which I think is what is keeping this total lower than it should be.  They had gone over the total in their previous three games.

The Kings and Thunder have combined for at least 231 points in six of their last eight meetings.  This is a very low total involving these two teams tonight at 223.5.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Auburn/Iowa State ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 145.5

Auburn and Iowa State are two of the best teams in the country.  But I think what makes both of them so great is their ability to make their opponents work hard for every point they get on offense.

Auburn ranks 363rd in average possession length defensively as opponents only attempt a shot every 19.6 seconds.  They are also 5th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Iowa State ranks 364th in average possession length defensively as opponents only attempt a shot on them every 20 seconds.  They are also 4th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

This is a neutral court with uncommon shooting backgrounds and I trust that defense will win out in this game between two of the nation's top teams.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Ravens/Chargers OVER 47.5

This Baltimore offense is one of the best in NFL history.  The Ravens rank 2nd in scoring at 30.4 points per game, 1st in total offense at 430.1 yards per game and 1st at 7.2 yards per play.  Lamar Jackson has more weapons than he has ever had with Flowers, Bateman, Johnson, Andrews, Likely, Hill and Agholor, and he has one of the best RB's the NFL has ever seen in Derrick Henry, who has already rushed for 1,185 yards and 13 TD.

The weakness of Baltimore is their pass defense.  They rank dead last (32nd) in the NFL allowing 284.5 passing yards per game and 26th at 7.2 yards per attempt.  LB Roquon Smith suffered a hamstring injury against the Steelers last week and did not practice Friday and may not play in this game.  Nickel CB Arthur Maulet is out, and NT Travis Jones is questionable.

The Chargers have been an under team this season and they do have a great defense.  However, they have benefited from facing the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL.  They have faced Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray, Spencer Rattler, Jameis Winston, Will Levis and Joe Burrow this season.  Mahomes was missing many of his key weapons.

We saw what the Chargers defense was last week against a high-powered offense in the Cincinnati Bengals.  They won a 34-27 shootout and gave up 452 total yards to the Bengals, including 356 passing and 3 TD from Burrow.  I think they'll get shredded by this Baltimore offense as well.

The Los Angeles Chargers are showing what they are capable of offensively when they are basically fully healthy, which they are right now.  They put up 26 points on the Saints and weren't pressed so they took their foot off the gas late in that game.  They put up 27 points on the Browns on the road and 27 points on the Titans at home.  Those are two very underrated defenses.  They put up 34 points and 435 total yards on the Bengals, who have a similarly poor defense to Baltimore.

The OVER is 9-2 in all Baltimore games this season with 45 or more combined points in 10 of the 11, and 49 or more combined points in eight of those.  They have gone for 51 or more combined points with their opponents in six of their last seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks -3

The Atlanta Hawks are in a good spot tonight coming in on two days' rest and coming off two straight blowout road losses to the Bulls and Warriors.  The Hawks are now fully healthy for basically the first time all season and this is a good team to 'buy low' on moving forward because of it.

This is a terrible spot for the Dallas Mavericks and the main reason for this play.  The Mavericks are coming off a 123-118 (OT) road loss at Miami last night.  They will now be playing not only the 2nd of a back-to-back off an OT game, but their 3rd road game in 4 days after playing in Denver on Friday.

Kyrie Irving played 39 minutes and PJ Washington 39 minutes last night.  What makes this situation even more difficult for the Mavericks is the fact that they are without their best player in Luka Doncic.  I'll gladly take the rested, healthy Hawks over the tired, short-handed Mavericks tonight.  Bet the Hawks Monday.

15* CBB Monday Night BLOWOUT on Ohio State -24

Ohio State is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season and absolutely blowing through the competition.  They upset Texas on a neutral and lost to Texas A&M on the road.  But they are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home beating Youngstown State by 34 as 19-point favorites, Evansville by 50 as 24.5-point favorites and Campbell by 44 as 25.5-point favorites.

Now they face a rebuilding Green Bay Phoenix team with a first-year head caoch who are 2-4 with all four losses by 13 points or more.  The two wins came against Western Illinois and SIU-Edwardsville.

But it's the loss to Evansville, a common opponent of Ohio State, that has me wanting to fade the Phoenix.  Green Bay lost 98-81 at Evansville while Ohio State beat Evansville 80-30.  Enough said.  Bet Ohio State Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3

The Miami Heat have been off since November 18th.  They have had five days of rest in between games and should come through with one of their best efforts of the season today as a result.  They are also fully healthy for basically the first time all season.

The Mavericks were able to upset the short-handed Denver Nuggets in an NBA Cup game on Friday on the road.  That sets them up for a letdown spot here, and I just think it's asking a lot of them to win consecutive road games here without Luka Doncic (28.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 7.6 APG).  Bet the Heat Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Philadelphia 76ers +2

The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off a 113-98 win over the Brooklyn Nets at home as 3-point favorites.  They just got Tyrese Maxey back from injury and he is quickly becoming their best player and put up 26 points in the win.  The 76ers have found a gem in Jared McCain, who has now scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games.

Now the 76ers host a Los Angeles Clippers team that remains without Kawhi Leonard, and one that just lost Norman Powell (23.3 PPG, 48.7% 3-pointers) to injury.  Powell is among the favorites to win Most Improve Player.

The Clippers are getting a lot of respect now as road favorites following a 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS run in four consecutive home games including upset wins over the Warriors, Magic and Kings.  I think this is where there come back down to reality without Powell, and the wrong team is favored here.  Bet the 76ers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Denver Broncos -4.5

The Denver Broncos are rolling right now going 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall.  One of those losses was a game they deserved to win in a 16-14 loss at Kansas City as 7-point dogs in a game they had won, but had their short FG blocked on the final play.  They also lost to the Ravens on the road and the Chargers, who were coming off their bye week and were a lot healthier at the time.  All of those losses have aged well.

The Broncos are crushing the teams they are supposed to beat, like these Las Vegas Raiders.  They upset the Bucs by 19, upset the Jets as 8.5-point road dogs, crushed the Raiders by 16 at home, crushed the Saints by 23 on the road, topped the Panthers by 14 at home and buried the Falcons by 32 at home last week.

While the Broncos are almost fully healthy right now and motivated to make the playoffs, the Raiders are in limbo right now and not healthy at all.  The Raiders are 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall with their six losses coming by an average of 13.2 points per game.

The Raiders have one of the worst QB situations in the NFL, they are without their top two RB's in Mattison and White, they are missing two starters along the offensive line, and they could be without three starters in the secondary.  It's not going to get any better this week against the Broncos.  I expect this to feel like a home game for Denver as their fans will travel well, and Raiders fans don't have a lot to be excited about right now.

While Bo Nix is getting a lot of the headlines and is playing very well behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, it's this Denver defense that is the backbone.  The Broncos rank 3rd in scoring defense at 16.6 points per game and 3rd at 289.4 yards per game.  They are also 1st allowing 4.9 yards per play.  Their task will be easy this week because the Raiders' only real threat on offense is TE Brock Bowers, who has 70 receptions for 706 yards this season.  They will scheme up a way to take him out, and Denver should win in another blowout.  Bet the Broncos Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Colts OVER 50.5

The Detroit Lions are really an OVER team as currently constructed.  They have one of the best offenses in the NFL but one of the worst defenses, it's just that that defense hasn't been exposed yet due to scheduling.  I think this is where their defense gets exposed and they'll have to try and keep up with the Colts in a shootout.

No question the Lions are loaded on offense ranking 1st in scoring at 33.6 points per game and 3rd in total offense at 394.7 yards per game.  They're almost fully healthy on offense.  But the same cannot be said for their defense, which is missing their best player in DE Aidan Hutchinson and now arguably their most important player in LB Alex Anzalone, who will miss most of the season after suffering an injury against the Jaguars last week.  Anzalone is the one that relays all the plays on defense.

Anthony Richardson returned at QB last week for the Colts and played one of the best games of his career. He went 20-of-30 passing for 272 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for two scores, including the game-winner when they had to have it trailing by 5 on their final drive.  They beat the Jets 28-27 for 55 combined points in a shootout.

The Lions play a lot of man-to-man defense, and Richardson should kill man-to-man with his ability to run the ball.  Not having Anzalone out there to chase him down is a big blow against a dual-threat like Richardson.  I think the Colts are capable of keeping up with the Lions in a shootout as both teams will get their points in perfect conditions indoors.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in Lions last seven games overall with 56 or more combined points in five of those seven games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +8.5

This is the ultimate 'sell high' spot on the Detroit Lions.  They are 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  I successfully faded them in their lone non-cover during this stretch backing the Texans as 3.5-point home underdogs in a 3-point loss two weeks ago.

But Detroit blasted Jacksonville last week 52-6 in a game where it looked like the Jaguars simply quit.  Mac Jones was the starting QB too for the injury-ravaged Jaguars.  Teams off a win by 35-plus points who are a favorite or a dog of +3 or less the next week like the Lions are just 17-34-1 ATS since 2021.  This trend just goes to show how teams off a blowout win are overvalued the next week.

The Lions have been getting pretty lucky as far as facing teams are the right time here of late.  The Titans were starting Mason Rudolph, the Packers were starting a hobbled Jordan Love who gifted them a pick-6, the Texans were missing Nico Collins and Will Anderson which are two of their three best players, and the Jaguars were missing Trevor Lawrence among others.

I think this is where Detroit meets its match.  This is a very healthy Indianapolis Colts team that is motivated to make the playoffs sitting at 5-6 and just one game behind the Broncos for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC.  Anthony Richardson returned at QB last week and played one of the best games of his career.

He went 20-of-30 passing for 272 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for two scores, including the game-winner when they had to have it trailing by 5 on their final drive.  Their defense is playing much better in recent weeks now that they're healthy, and they only allowed 10 first down for the entire game to the Jets.  It was actually a misleading 28-27 final as 4-point road underdogs.  I was on the Colts last week as well.

The Colts play more zone defense than any team in the NFL.  Jared Goff kills man-to-man and struggles against zone.  Goff has a 13-to-0 TD/INT ratio this season against teams that play mostly man, and a 7-to-9 TD/INT ratio against teams that play mostly zone.

The Lions don't have a very good defense without Aidan Hutchinson and now without their green dot in LB Alex Anzalone, who is one of the most underrated linebackers in the league.  They lost him last week against the Jaguars and he won't return until the end of the season.  They play a lot of man-to-man defense, and Richardson should kill man-to-man with his ability to run the ball.  Not having Anzalone out there to chase him down is a big blow against a dual-threat like Richardson.  

I wouldn't be surprised if the Colts win this game outright, but getting more than 7 points with them at home is absurd.  The Colts are 8-3 ATS in all games this season and have just one loss by more than 8 points all season, and that was a misleading 10-point loss to Buffalo that was aided by a pick-6 and four turnovers overall, including 3 interceptions from Joe Flacco.  Richardson is 6-1 ATS as a starting QB this season.  Bet the Colts Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE MONTH on Carolina Panthers +11

I love the spot for the Carolina Panthers this week.  They are coming off a bye, and first-year head coaches benefit the most from byes.  The Panthers needed the bye because they were one of the most banged up teams in the NFL.  But reinforcements are on the way now coming out of the bye.

It looks like the Panthers should be getting back WR Adam Thielen, RB Jonathan Brooks, DE Jadeveon Clowney, LB DJ Wonnum, LB DJ Johnson and DE LaBryan Ray among others.  The Panthers won outright as 7-point home dogs over the Saints and outright as 6.5-point dogs on a neutral to the Giants in Germany going into their bye.

Now they should be motivated coming out of their bye with the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs coming to town.  The spot is a bad one for the Chiefs, who suffered their first loss of the season 30-21 on the road to the Bills last week.  That ended their perfect season, and I think there will be a hangover effect here with the type of loss that could beat a team twice.

The Chiefs were living on borrowed time as it is.  They are 7-0 in games decided by a touchdown or less.  Eight of their nine wins came by 10 points or fewer as well.  They were just able to mask a lot of their problems by coming up clutch late in games.  Their luck has run out, and asking them to now go on the road again and beat a rejuvenated Panthers team coming off a bye is asking too much.

Mahomes is 0-3-1 ATS in his career as a double-digit road favorite.  He has struggled throughout his career covering spreads of 7 or more as the Chiefs just have a knack of playing to their level of competition and playing in close games.  That's evidenced by the fact that nine of their 10 games this season have been decided by 10 points or less.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Patriots/Dolphins OVER 45

The New England Patriots are becoming more of an OVER team with Drake Maye at quarterback.  He is showing the Patriots made the right move by drafting him No. 3 overall and New England fans have a lot to look forward to.  His dual-threat ability and his deep ball make this Patriots offense a lot more potent than when Jacoby Brissett was running the show.

Maye is completing 66.7% of his passes for 1,236 yards with a 9-to-6 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 260 yards and a score on 9.3 per carry.  He kept the Patriots in the game last week in a 28-22 loss to the Rams.  The Rams put up 402 total yards on this banged up Patriots defense, but the Patriots got 382 total yards in a shootout.

This Miami offense has taken off since Tua Tagovailoa returned from injury.  He has led them to 27 points against the Cardinals, 27 against the Bills, 23 against the Rams and 34 against the Raiders.  The Dolphins profile much more as an OVER team as long as Tua is under center.  He'll be up against a New England defense that has six starters listed on the injury report and another six listed out or on IR.

The forecast in Miami looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  This total of 45 is too low for the makeup of these two teams currently.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Afternoon BLOWOUT on Washington Commanders -10

I love the spot for the Washington Commanders Sunday.  They are coming off a mini bye week after playing the Eagles last Thursday.  That was their second consecutive loss after falling by 1 to the Steelers.  They will be motivated coming out of their mini-bye, and they will be a lot healthier, including QB Jayden Daniels.

Now the Commanders get a team they should handle in the hapless Dallas Cowboys.  This is a Cowboys team that just isn't very good for starters, and one that has been decimated by injuries this season as well.  The Cowboys are 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They lost 47-9 as 3.5-point home dogs to the Lions, 30-24 as 5.5-point road dogs to the 49ers, 27-21 as 3.5-point road dogs to the Falcons, 34-6 as 7-point home dogs to the Eagles and 34-10 as 7-point home dogs to the Texans.  

They even scored a garbage TD late against the 49ers to make that score look closer than it was, and a garbage score against the Falcons late to make that score closer than it was. The Cowboys lost Dak Prescott to injury in that loss to the Falcons to boot.  We saw what this team looks like without Dak at QB, and it's not pretty. 

That 34-6 loss to the Eagles was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  The Cowboys managed just 146 total yards and 11 first downs against the Eagles.  They had 49 net passing yards on 26 attempts, averaging less than 2 yards per attempt.  I don't think I've ever seen passing numbers in the NFL that are that poor.  Rush had more success against the Texans, but it was a lot of dink and dunk when they were trailing big.  He's just not a NFL starting QB.

The injuries just keep piling up for the Cowboys.  They will be without TE Jake Ferguson, who suffered a concussion against the Texans.  They will be without RG Zack Martin, and several other key players are questionable in WR Brandin Cooks, LG Tyron Smith, LB Nick Vigil and CB Trevon Diggs.

After facing two of the best defenses in the league in the Steelers and Eagles, things should come a lot easier for Daniels and this Washington offense against one of the worst defenses in the league in the Cowboys.  Dallas ranks 31st in scoring defense allowing 29.3 points per game.  It is 30th allowing 6.1 yards per play.  The Cowboys have now allowed at least 27 points in five consecutive games.  Washington will get to at least 27, and that will be enough to cover this 10-point spread.  Bet the Commanders Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on New York Giants +6

The New York Giants have new life coming out of their bye week with a new QB in Tommy DeVito.  We saw him give them a spark last season going 3-3 SU & 4-2 ATS in his six starts, including 4-0 ATS against the four teams that allowed the most points per game that he faced.

He will be up against a leaky Tampa Bay defense that ranks 27th in scoring at 26.6 points per game, 30th in total defense at 389.3 yards per game and 29th at 6.1 yards per play.  The Giants will have a lot more success on offense than they are getting credit for this week.

On the other side of the ball, the strength of this Giants defense is their pass rush.  They will be up against a shaky Tampa Bay offensive line that will likely be without their best player in LT Tristan Wirfs.  Baker Mayfield will be under duress all game. The Giants are almost fully healthy coming out of their bye week and will be getting some key players back to boot.

The Giants are undervalued due to their poor 2-8 SU record.  But they are 1-5 SU in games decided by one score.  They have been unfortunate in close games.  If they lose this game, it will be by one score, so there's some serious value in getting +6 with them at home this week.  This line was Tampa Bay -3 on the lookahead which is where I believe its should be, so we are getting 3 full points of value here.  Don't be the surprised if the Giants win this game outright.

Baker Mayfield is 9-13 SU & 9-13 ATS in his career coming off extended rest, including 3-8 SU on the road.  Todd Bowles is 9-17 SU on extended rest in his coaching career, including 2-8 SU on the road.  Brian Daboll is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS off a bye as the coach of the Giants.  Mayfield is 1-4 ATS coming off a bye, including 0-2 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or more.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* NBA Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Portland Trail Blazers +12.5

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after losing 116-88 in a NBA Cup game last night to the Rockets, who were motivated.  I don't think the Rockets will be nearly as motivated tonight to beat this team twice in two days.

The Blazers are in the much better rest spot with both teams playing the 2nd of a back-to-back. This is just the 4th game in 11 days for the Blazers, while it will be the 5th game in 7 days and the 9th game in 14 days for the Rockets.

The Blazers also shot just 33% last night including 11-of-43 (25.6%) from 3-point range.  I can't see them shooting nearly that poorly again in the rematch.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night BLOWOUT on Baylor -7.5

The Baylor 'buy' signs are high right now.  I've been riding this team in their last few games and will continue to ride them this week. The Bears are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their offense is unstoppable right now averaging 45.8 points per game and 551 yards per game in their four consecutive wins and covers.

The fact of the matter is Houston cannot keep up with Baylor.  The Bears will get their points.  Houston has been held to 17 points or fewer in six of its 10 games this season.  The Cougars rank 133rd in scoring offense at 14.0 points per game.  That is absolutely atrocious in today's college football.

I think the Cougars hit an all-time low last week losing 27-3 to Arizona.  That was a previously dead Arizona team that couldn't stop anyone.  They had allowed 56 points to UCF in their previous game and held Houston to 3.  Their defense is decimated by injuries.

Houston has been able to hang with teams that play slow, defensive-minded football this season.  They haven't been able to hang with the better offenses they have faced that are more up-tempo like Baylor.  The Bears will test them in a big way as they rank 11th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.  The Cougars won't be able to keep up.  Bet Baylor Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Total DOMINATOR on Boise State/Wyoming UNDER 57.5

This is strictly a play on the weather.  There is expected to be 20 MPH sustained winds in Laramie Saturday night with gusts up to 40 MPH.  Wind affects scoring more than any other weather element, and these teams are going to be forced to keep the ball on the ground in a defensive battle that keeps the clock moving for four quarters.

Wyoming will be able to stack the box to try and stop RB Ashton Jeanty without worry that Boise State will try to throw it much.  And I have no doubt Boise State is going to be able to stop this hapless Wyoming offense.

The Cowboys rank 119th in scoring offense at 20.4 points per game, 118th in total offense at 326.8 yards per game and 123rd at 4.9 yards per play.  Boise State ranks 13th in the country allowing 104.7 rushing yards per game and 17th at 3.3 per carry.  Wyoming is going to need to score at least 20 points for us to lose this UNDER, and I just don't seem them getting to 20.  

The UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 39 or fewer combined points in all five meetings.  Boise State and Wyoming have combined for 48 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings, making for a 7-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Colorado/Kansas FOX No-Brainer on Kansas +3

Kansas is one of the best 4-6 teams in the history of college football. Kansas is 1-5 in games decided by 6 points or less this season.  The other was a misleading 11-point loss to TCU.  The Jayhawks have had two bye weeks in the last month and are fresh and showing what they are capable of now.

Kansas is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games with the lone loss coming 29-27 as 9.5-point underdogs at Kansas State in a game they deserved to win.  They returned from their first bye with a 42-14 dismantling of Houston as 5-point home favorites.  They came back from their 2nd bye and upset Iowa State 45-36 as 2-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium.  And last week they handed BYU their first loss in a 17-13 road win as 3-point dogs.

This Kansas offense has taken off behind QB Jaylon Daniels and RB Devin Neal.  They put up 42 points and 467 total yards on a very good Houston defense.  They put up 27 points and 401 total yards on a very good Kansas State defense.  And most impressive yet was the 45 points and 532 total yards they put up against arguably the best defense in the Big 12 in Iowa State.

Now the Jayhawks have their sights set on knocking Colorado off from the top of the Big 12 ranks.  Like BYU, Colorado has benefited from close wins and a soft schedule. The Buffaloes have managed to not have to face the top three teams in the Big 12 outside themselves.  They needed a hail mary to beat Baylor, and they lost by 3 at home to Kansas State, which is arguably the best Big 12 team they have faced this season.

Kansas can get whatever it wants against this Colorado defense.  And the Jayhawks have two of the top CB's in the Big 12 to match up with Travis Hunter and these Colorado receivers.  I like the matchup for the Jayhawks, who will have a big home-field advantage after outscoring Iowa State and Houston a combined 87-50 in their last two home games.  Bet Kansas Saturday. 

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on ECU/North Texas OVER 73

Both East Carolina and North Texas are dead nuts OVER teams.  They both have elite offenses, play fast, and play little to no defense.  North Texas ranks 3rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.5 seconds.  East Carolina ranks 5th at 21.8 seconds between snaps.  You would be hard-pressed to find another game this season that is going to see more plays and possessions than this one.

The OVER is 5-0 in East Carolina's last five games overall with 63 or more combined points in all five.  Their offense is really humming right now putting up 56 against Temple, 49 against Florida Atlantic and 38 against Tulsa the last three weeks.  They have allowed at least 31 points in four of their last five games, and the only game they didn't was because FAU lost its starting QB early.

North Texas is 8-2 OVER in all games this season.  The Mean Green have gone for at least 67 combined points in seven of their 10 games this season.  They have allowed 45, 52 and 48 points in three of their last four games, and I suspect East Carolina will get into the 40's in this one.  The Mean Green rank 126th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 126th in scoring at 35.7 points per game.

The forecast looks good for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 12 MPH winds and no precipitation Saturday in Denton, TX.  This will be one of the most entertaining games of the season with these teams matching each other score for score for 60 minutes in a fast-paced game.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3

This is going to be a back and forth game with two of the Top 5 offenses in the country in terms of tempo.  But I think the difference is East Carolina will get one or two more stops than North Texas will because their defense is much better.

East Carolina's offense has taken off since switching quarterbacks to Katin Houser.  He has thrown for at least 269 yards in every game with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio in his last four games.  He led ECU to a 56-35 win over Temple, a 49-14 win over FAU and a 38-31 win at Tulsa.

Now Houser and company get to go up against one of the worst defenses in the country in North Texas.  The Mean Green rank 126th in scoring defense allowing 35.7 points per game and 126th in total defense allowing 458.1 yards per game.  Compare that to ECU, which allows 393.8 yards per game and 27.2 points per game, and it's easy to see that the Pirates have the much better defense in this one.

North Texas allowed 48 points to UTSA, 45 to Tulane and 52 to Memphis in three of its last four games coming in.  I don't think the Mean Green are all that motivated for a 6th win here knowing they can get it against lowly Temple next week to clinch bowl eligibility.  ECU has been rolling since making a coaching chance and the Pirates have all the momentum now.  The wrong team is favored in this game today.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

20* BYU/Arizona State ESPN No-Brainer on Arizona State -3

I faded BYU with success with Kansas +3 last week.  I'm fading the Cougars again this week as I still believe they are overvalued due to their fraudulent 9-1 record.  BYU is 4-1 in games decided by 6 points or less.  

They have been fortunate in close games all season, including a 1-point win over a bad Utah team and a 3-point win over a bad Oklahoma State team.  They finally had their luck run out last week, coming up a yard short in the red zone at the end of the game in a 17-13 loss to Kansas.  I think that's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

While BYU just had the wind taken out of their sails, Arizona State has all the momentum right now.  The Sun Devils have won three straight following their bye week with a 21-point win at Oklahoma State and a 4-point home win over UCF without star RB Cam Skattebo.

But Skattebo returned from injury last week to help lead the 24-14 upset at Kansas State.  The Sun Devils jumped out to a 21-0 lead and never looked back.  Skattebo had 117 yards from scrimmage and averages 152 scrimmage yards per game this season.  While Skattebo gets all the credit for this team, it's QB Sam Leavitt who has made the biggest leap here down the stretch and his playing his best football of the season.  

Leavitt has a 9-to-0 TD/INT ratio in his last three games.  He is the reason the Sun Devils control their own destiny now in getting to the Big 12 Championship.  This team is playing with a massive chip on their shoulder after being picked to finish last by the media in the offseason.  That chip will remain squarely on their shoulder this week.

Arizona State wants to run Skattebo to set up the play-action for Leavitt.  They average 190.5 rushing yards per game.  BYU's weakness is stopping the run.  The Cougars allow 139.2 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry, which ranks 75th in the country.  BYU is balanced but leans on the pass more, and ASU is good in both departments.  They allow just 3.8 yards per rush attempt which ranks 47th and 6.3 yards per pass attempt which ranks 31st.

I think Arizona State has the better defense and their home-field advantage will be huge in this one as it should be one of the best atmospheres for a game in Tempe in years with what's at stake.  It's worth more than what is being factored into this line.  The Sun Devils should be more than 3-point home favorites here.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah State -4

The Utah State Aggies (3-7) and San Diego Aztecs (3-7) are both eliminated from bowl contention.  But these teams are trending in opposite directions, and I trust Utah State to show up a lot more than I do San Diego State.  Plus, this is Senior Day for the Aggies, so they will want to send their seniors out winners.

Utah State has been competitive in four of its last five games with the lone exception being a 49-28 loss at Washington State.  They only lost by 16 to UNLV, by 5 to New Mexico, beat Wyoming by 2 and then crushed Hawaii 55-10 last week.  The Aggies racked up 580 total yards on Hawaii and held them to just 309, outgaining them by 271 yards.  Hawaii had been playing very well going into that game.

San Diego State has really been dominated in the box score in three straight games.  They lost 56-24 at Boise State while getting outgained 541 to 256 by the Broncos.  They only lost 21-16 at home to New Mexico, but that was a bigger blowout than the final score as the Lobos outgained them 475 to 341 but left a lot of points on the board.  And last week they lost 41-20 at UNLV while getting outgained 515 to 270 by the Rebels.

So San Diego State is allowing 510.3 yards per game and only averaging 289 yards per game on offense in their last three games.  They are getting outgained by 221.3 yards per game during this stretch.  I don't see it going any better for the Aztecs against this high-octane Utah State offense that finally showed they could play a little defense against Hawaii last week.  

The Aggies rank 8th in total offense at 463.9 yards per game and 32nd at 6.4 yards per play.  Compare that to the Aztecs, who rank 120th in total offense at 324.7 yards per game and 20th at 4.9 yards per play, and it's easy to see that the Aztecs can't keep up with them in this one.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

15* Tulsa/USF AAC ANNIHILATOR on OVER 60.5

Both Tulsa and South Florida are dead nut OVER teams and this should be a shootout Saturday afternoon.  South Florida ranks 1st in tempo in the entire country snapping the ball every 20.6 seconds.  Tulsa ranks 22nd in tempo snapping it ever 24.1 seconds, so this game is going to see a ton of plays and a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points as a result.

South Florida just ran it down Charlotte's throat last week rushing for 425 yards in a 59-24 victory and 83 combined points.  They are going to be able to do the same against a Tulsa defense that ranks 130th in scoring defense at 38.4 points per game, 127th in total defense at 458.1 yards per game and 128th at 6.7 yards per play.  Tulsa allowed 52 points to North Texas, 49 to Army, 45 to UTSA, 59 to UAB and 38 to ECU in five of its last six games, going 5-1 OVER in those six games.

Tulsa should find plenty of success on offense to help us get this OVER 60.5 home.  The Bulls rank 119th in total defense allowing 421.1 yards per game.  They are particularly poor against the pass, allowing 265.9 yards per game which ranks 126th in the country.  Tulsa QB Cooper Legas is a good dual-threat who threw for 293 yards and 3 TD against a pretty good ECU defense last week.  He also rushed for 43 yards on 13 carries in leading the Golden Hurricane to 31 points.

Tulsa and South Florida combined for 90 points in their last meeting.  The forecast looks great for another shootout with temps in the 60's, no wind and no precipitation this afternoon.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Total DOMINATOR on Rice/UAB OVER 51

I like taking OVERS between two teams late in the season that have nothing but pride to play for because they have already been eliminated from bowl contention.  These games tend to be played much more loose and free with the offenses having the advantage over the defense.  This applies to Rice (3-7) traveling to UAB (2-8) Saturday.

UAB is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Blazers play fast and they play no defense.  They rank 23rd in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 24.1 seconds.  They rank 127th in scoring defense allowing 36.8 points per game.  And UAB has played much better offensively since switching to Jalen Kitna at QB, averaging 444.3 total yards per game and 31.3 points per game in their last four games.  This total of 51 is very low for a game involving UAB right now.

The only reason this total is so low is because Rice has been an under team this season going 7-3 to the under.  But they haven't had QB EJ Warner healthy for part of the season, and he is healthy now and thriving.  Warner threw for 246 yards and 2 TD against Memphis and 239 yards and a TD against Navy in his last two games coming in.  He will have one of his best games of the season against UAB, similar to when he threw for 347 yards and 2 TD against UTSA, which is a team that profiles similar to UAB with no defense and up-tempo.

UAB and its opponents have combined for at least 54 points in eight consecutive games, making for an 8-0 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 51-point total.  The forecast looks great for a shootout this afternoon with temps in the 50's, no wind and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.