|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-07-19||Giants v. Rockies -116||14-4||Loss||-116||8 h 57 m||Show|
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado Rockies -116
The Giants just had to complete their four-game series in Cincinnati on Monday. Meanwhile, the Rockies had yesterday off and will be fresh and ready to go as they welcome the Giants to Coors Field Tuesday night for Game 1 of this series.
Antonio Senzatela has pitched well for the Rockies this season, going 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA in four starts. Senzatela has never lost to the Giants, going 5-0 (6-0 money line) with a 3.16 ERA and 1.054 WHIP in six career starts against them.
Madison Bumgarner is 1-4 with a 3.92 ERA in seven starts for the Giants this season, including 0-2 with a 5.09 ERA in his last three starts. Bumgarner allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 5 innings of an 8-9 loss in his last start at Coors Field last season.
The Giants are 4-21 when the total is 10 or higher over the last three seasons. Bumgarner is 0-7 in road games in the first half of the season over the last three years. The Rockies are 7-1 in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing record. Colorado is 39-17 in its last 56 home meetings with San Francisco. Roll with the Rockies Tuesday.
|05-06-19||Warriors v. Rockets -1||Top||108-112||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Houston -1
The Rockets will be brimming with confidence after taking down the Warriors in overtime in Game 3 and saving their season. Now, I look for them to put forth their best performance yet in a series that has been closely-contested thus far with all three games decided by 6 points or less.
The Rockets are 35-10 at home this season and 4-0 at home in the playoffs, outscoring opponents by an average of 16 points per game. They certainly got more from their role players at home in Game 3 as they made 18 3-pointers as a team and shot 48.4% from the field.
The Rockets are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Houston is 8-2 ATS in its lsat 10 games following a win. The Rockets are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their seven meetings with the Warriors this season. Bet the Rockets Monday.
|05-06-19||Bucks v. Celtics -1.5||113-101||Loss||-105||7 h 49 m||Show|
15* Bucks/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Boston Celtics -1.5
The Boston Celtics are fighting for their lives tonight at home in Game 4. If they lose this game, the series is overall. The Celtics will want it more, and the Bucks could easily relax after regaining home-court advantage after an impressive Game 3 victory.
The Celtics shot 54% in Game 1, which wasn’t sustainable. But they have shot just 39.5% in Game 2 and 43.2% in Game 3 since. They are a better shooting team than that, and I look for their offense to be much smoother in Game 4 as more guys get involved.
It was a rare home playoff loss for the Celtics in Game 3. The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in home playoff games over the last two seasons. Boston is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home meetings with the Bucks. Take the Celtics Monday.
|05-06-19||White Sox v. Indians -1.5||9-1||Loss||-126||6 h 58 m||Show|
15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-126)
The Chicago White Sox were just swept at home by the Red Sox while getting outscored 30-5 in the process. They are in store for more misery today on the road against Trevor Bauer and the Chicago White Sox.
Bauer has been one of the best starters in baseball over the last two seasons. He is 4-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.049 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.825 WHIP in two home starts. Bauer is also 8-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.051 WHIP in 16 career starts against Chicago.
It hasn’t worked out for Ivan Nova and the Chicago White Sox. Nova is still in search of his first win this season, going 0-3 with an 8.33 ERA and 1.787 WHIP in six starts. Nova is 0-1 with an 11.25 ERA and 2.250 WHIP in his last three starts, allowing 20 earned runs and 6 homers in 16 innings.
Chicago is 0-10 after playing seven or more consecutive home games over the last two seasons. It is losing by 5.3 runs per game in this spot. The White Sox are 0-4 in Nova’s last four road starts. The Indians are 6-0 in their last six after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Cleveland is 4-0 in Bauer’s last four home starts vs. Chicago. These four trends combine for a perfect 24-0 system backing Cleveland. Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Monday.
|05-05-19||Dodgers v. Padres +128||5-8||Win||128||5 h 16 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +128
The San Diego Padres have lost the first two games of this series to the Dodgers. It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 today to avoid the sweep, especially after losing by exactly one run in each of their first two games in this series.
I believe the Padres have the edge on the mound today behind the underrated Nick Margevisius. He is 2-3 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.109 WHIP in six starts this season. This will be his first career start against the Dodgers, which is an advantage for him.
Kenta Maeda is 3-2 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in six starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.811 WHIP in four road starts. Made is 5-3 with a 4.39 ERA in 11 career starts against the Padres.
The Dodgers are 1-7 in Maeda’s last eight road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Padres are 7-2 in their last nine games vs. a right-handed starter. Roll with the Padres Sunday.
|05-05-19||Raptors v. 76ers UNDER 214.5||Top||101-96||Win||100||5 h 54 m||Show|
20* Raptors/76ers ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 214.5
This pivotal Game 4 will be a low-scoring, defensive battle just as the first three games have been. The UNDER is 3-0 in this series with combined scores of 203, 183 and 211 points. And now we have a 214.5-point total for Game 4, which is too high.
That’s especially the case when you consider that the Raptors will be without arguably their second-best player in Pascal Siakam today. He is the team’s second-leading scorer at 16.9 points per game and he has just gotten better as the season has gone on.
Philadelphia is 16-4 to the UNDER in its lsat 20 during the 4th game of a playoff series. The UNDER is 5-0-1 in Raptors last six road games. The UNDER is 8-1 in Raptors last nine games overall. The UNDER is 5-0 in 76ers last five games overall. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last four meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|05-05-19||Diamondbacks v. Rockies -135||7-8||Win||100||4 h 16 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -135
The Rockies have lost the first two games of this series to the rival Arizona Diamondbacks. It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 today to avoid the sweep.
The good news for the Rockies is they send ace German Marquez to the mound. He is 3-2 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in seven starts this season. Marquez is also 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in his last two starts against the Diamondbacks, giving up just 3 earned runs in 14 innings with 22 K’s.
Zack Greinke is much better at home than he is on the road. Greinke is 3-1 with a 3.97 ERA in four road starts this season.
The Diamondbacks are 1-9 in their last 10 Sunday games. The Rockies are 5-0 in Marquez’s last five starts when working on 4 days’ rest. Colorado is 4-0 in Marquez’s last four starts against the Diamondbacks. Take the Rockies Sunday.
|05-04-19||Warriors v. Rockets -3||Top||121-126||Win||100||10 h 45 m||Show|
25* NBA 2nd Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Houston Rockets -3
The Houston Rockets had their chances in both Games 1 and 2 at Golden State. The officials cost them Game 1 in a 4-point loss, and they got within 3 late in the second half of Game 2 but lost by 6. They certainly know they can beat this team, and I can’t see them falling down 3-0 and not putting up a fight.
The Rockets proved they could beat the Warriors by winning three of four regular season meetings with their only loss coming by 2 points. And now they get the Warriors at home for the first time in this series. I expect Golden State to relax after taking care of business at home, and for the Rockets to simply want this one more.
Getting three days off between games was huge for James Harden. His eye injury got extra time to heal, and he should be near 100% for this one. Harden still had 29 points in Game 2 with that eye injury, so I’m not concerned about it at all.
The Warriors are plus-15 in field goal attempts in this series because the Rockets have been terrible in turnovers and allowing offensive rebounds. They have turned the ball over 31 times and have allowed 26 offensive rebounds with the Warriors regaining possession on 30.2% of their misses. Look for the Rockets to shore up those two areas, and that will make all the difference here.
Houston is 8-1 ATS when playing with double revenge this season, coming back to win by 13.6 points per game on average. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. The Rockets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games. They went 3-0 at home against the Jazz last series, outscoring them by a combined 59 points in the three victories. Bet the Rockets Saturday.
FREE Kentucky Derby Picks!
Win: No. 5 Improbable (5/1)
Improbable was undefeated in three starts as a 2-year-old. Since then he lost by a neck in the Rebel Stakes and by a length to Derby favorite Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby. That effort showed he could go the distance with what was previously the best horse in the field in Omaha Beach. Now, I believe Improbable is the best horse in the field.
The pedigree is a good one as well. He is the son of City Zip, a Grade 1-winning sprinter and half brother to 2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic and Horse of the Year Ghostzapper. It’s also worth mentioning he has the same trainer and owner as Triple Crown winner, Justify.
I like the running style of Improbable. He likes to stalk the leader and sit no more than one or two lengths behind before making his move around the final turn. There isn’t going to be a lot of speed in this race, so the stalkers will have the advantage over the closers. Horses sitting too far off the pace will have no chance. Improbable has as good a chance as any at winning the Run for the Roses this year.
Place: No. 16 Game Winner (9/2)
Game Winner is basically a nose and a half-length away from being unbeaten with the two losses coming to elite competition. He lost to Omaha Beach in the Grade II Rebel Stakes by a nose, and we all know that Omaha Beach was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby before getting scratched.
Then, with his ticket already punched into the Kentucky Derby, Game Winner lost to fellow Bob Baffert trainee Roadster by a half-length in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Well, there’s been talk that Game Winner didn’t give it his all in that race because he didn’t need to. Roadster needed the win to quality for the Kentucky Derby, so it would make sense that Baffert would have instructed the jockey of Game Winner to let Roadster win.
The pedigree is a good one as well for Game Winner, which is a bay colt by Candy Ride, the sire of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner. He is also out of Indyan Giving, the daughter of A.P. Indy and champion older mare Fleet Indian. Game Winner can get the distance as Fleet Indians scored in the 1 1/4-mile Personal Ensign (G1) and Delaware H. (G2), and her other stakes wins all came at 1 1/8-miles, the most notorious of which was the Beldame (G1).
Show: No. 8 Tacitus (8/1)
Tacitus won both of his Derby prep races with victories in the Grade II Tampa Bay Derby and the Grade II Wood Memorial. His victory in the Wood Memorial was made even more impressive by the fact that he was bumped at the start, yet he went on to post the best Brisnet speed figure (103) of any horse in their final prep race.
Tacitus has the perfect racing style to win the Kentucky Derby, too. He likes to sit mid-pack, just behind the first set of stalkers. He has drawn the 8th post position, and most horses have had success from the 5-10 spots. He should get a nice trip and be able to stalk the early leaders.
Juddmonte Farms has captured all of the world’s biggest races except the Kentucky Derby. In Tacitus, they believe they will capture the Run for the Roses this year. Dam Close Hatches is a thorough Juddmonte product top and bottom. Sire First Defence is a near relation to homebred Empire Maker, the runner-up as the Derby favorite that went on to win the Belmont.
Exacta Pick: 5, 8, 14, 16 ($2 Exacta Box Costs $24)
Trifecta Pick: 5, 8, 14, 16 ($2 Trifecta Box Costs $48)
Superfecta Pick: 5, 8, 14, 16 ($1 Superfecta Box Costs $24)
Note: I’m throwing in No. 14 Win Win Win (15/1) in my Trifecta Box as I believe he is the horse with the fourth-best chance to hit the board. Other horses I consider to have a shot in order are Roadster (5/1), Vekoma (15/1), Maximum Security (8/1) and Code of Honor (12/1).
|05-04-19||Diamondbacks v. Rockies -127||9-2||Loss||-127||10 h 42 m||Show|
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado Rockies -127
The Colorado Rockies lost 9-10 to the Diamondbacks in Game 1 of this series at home. I expect them to come back motivated for a victory in Game 2 and to get a win to even the series.
Kyle Freeland was one of the most underrated starters in the majors last year. And while he has a 4.81 ERA this season, he has a more respectable 1.218 WHIP and has been unlucky more than anything. Freeland is 3-2 with a 3.80 ERA in eight career starts against Arizona.
Luke Weaver is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after opening 2-1 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.245 WHIP in his six starts. But he has never fared well against the Rockies, going 0-1 with a 15.42 ERA and 3.212 WHIP in two career starts against them. He didn’t make it out of the 3rd inning in either start.
The Rockies are 14-2 in Freeland’s last 16 home starts. The Diamondbacks are 3-10 in their last 13 Saturday games. Colorado is 9-1 in Freeland’s last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the Rockies Saturday.
|05-04-19||Astros -124 v. Angels||Top||14-2||Win||100||9 h 42 m||Show|
20* AL Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -124
I think we are getting the Houston Astros at a great value here as small favorites over the Los Angeles Angels. This is actually a neutral site matchup in Monterrey, Mexico when a lot of bettors are going to be thinking the Angels are at home.
The Astros certainly have the edge on the mound behind Wade Miley, who is 1-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.140 WHIP in six starts this season. Miley has never lost to the Angels, going 2-0 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.717 WHIP in three career starts against them.
Trevor Cahill is 1-2 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.352 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-1 with a 9.49 ERA and 2.028 WHIP in his last three starts. Cahill is also 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.382 WHIP in five career starts against Houston.
Miley is 12-2 when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest over the last two seasons. The Astros are 10-1 in their last 11 games following an off day. The Angels are 1-6 in their last seven games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Astros Saturday.
|05-03-19||Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 214.5||137-140||Win||100||13 h 32 m||Show|
15* Nuggets/Blazers ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on OVER 214.5
After combining for 234 points in Game 1, the Blazers and Nuggets combined for just 187 in Game 2. I’m certain that Game 2 was the aberration as the Nuggets shot just 34.7% from the field and missed 32 shots in the paint. The Blazers only shot 42.4% themselves.
Still, these teams have combined for 223 or more points in five of their six meetings this season. So that fact alone shows there’s value on the OVER tonight. And I like that they only have one day off in between games, giving them less time to make defensive adjustments. The offenses will win out tonight.
Portland is 9-0 OVER in its last nine home games vs. poor pressure defensive teams that force 14 or fewer turnovers per game. The Blazers are 13-2 OVER in their last 15 home games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 106 or more points per game. The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five road games. The OVER is 16-4-1 in Blazers last 21 home games. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
|05-03-19||Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 220||Top||123-116||Loss||-110||10 h 7 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Bucks ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 220
The Celtics and Bucks combined for just 202 points in Game 1. But then they exploded for 225 combined points in Game 2 thanks to the Bucks making a ridiculous 20 3-pointers. That’s not going to happen again. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this pivotal Game 3 tonight.
The Celtics and Bucks have combined for 208 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games overall. That fact alone shows there’s a ton of value with the UNDER in this matchup tonight. These teams are so familiar with one another after meeting up for a seven-game series in the playoffs last year that points are usually hard to come by.
The UNDER is 14-2-1 in Celtics last 17 home games following a road trip that lasted seven or more days. The UNDER is 8-2 in Celtics last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|05-03-19||A's v. Pirates -113||14-1||Loss||-113||10 h 36 m||Show|
15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -113
The Oakland A’s continue a brutal nine-game road trip that has not gone well for them. They are 0-6 on the trip while getting swept by the Blue Jays and Red Sox. They have scored 4 runs or fewer in all six losses.
Things won’t get any easier for the A’s against Joe Musgrove and the Pirates tonight. Musgrove is 1-2 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.970 WHIP in five starts this season, including 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.846 WHIP in two home starts. Musgrove owns the A’s, going 1-1 with a 1.06 ERA and 1.001 WHIP in three career starts against them.
Brett Anderson is 3-2 with a 4.35 ERA and 1.484 WHIP in six starts this season for Oakland. He has really struggled in his last three starts, going 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA and 1.615 WHIP. Anderson has allowed 6 earned runs and 17 base runners in 7 innings in his last two starts against the Pirates for a 7.71 ERA and 2.429 WHIP.
Pittsburgh is 10-0 vs. AL teams that allow 4.9 or more runs per game over the last two seasons. Oakland is 1-9 in road games off a loss this season. The A’s are 1-8 in Anderson’s last nine road starts. The Pirates are 21-5 in their last 26 interleague games. Roll with the Pirates Friday.
|05-03-19||Mariners v. Indians -139||Top||1-2||Win||100||9 h 1 m||Show|
20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -139
The Seattle Mariners have come back down to reality by losing 13 of their last 18 games overall. They aren’t as good as they showed in the first few weeks of the season, but they are still getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers.
Cleveland is healthy throughout the lineup now, but the rotation has some injuries. I like starter Shane Bieber, though, who is 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA and 1.025 WHIP in five starts this season. One of those starts came at Seattle on April 16th as he allowed just one earned run in six innings to get the win in a 4-2 victory.
Yusei Kikuchi is struggling to adjust in his first season in the majors. He is 1-1 with a 4.54 ERA in seven starts this season, including 1-0 with a 5.22 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in four road starts. Kikuchi faced the Indians on April 15th, taking the loss while allowing 3 earned runs in 6 innings.
Seattle is 1-10 vs. a team with a winning record this season, so it has done most of its damage against losing teams. The Mariners are 2-10 in their last 12 games following a loss. Cleveland is 9-4 in Bieber’s last 13 starts. Take the Indians Friday.
|05-02-19||Blue Jays +143 v. Angels||2-6||Loss||-100||10 h 25 m||Show|
15* Blue Jays/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Toronto +143
The Toronto Blue Jays will be highly motivated for a victory here in Game 3 against the Los Angeles Angels after losing the first two games of this series. And I believe they have the edge on the mound and shouldn’t be this big of underdogs.
Aaron Sanchez is 3-1 with a 2.32 ERA in six starts this season for the Blue Jays. He has given up just 21 hits and two homers in 31 innings. Sanchez has posted a 3.38 ERA in three career starts against the Angels as well.
Tyler Skaggs is a quality starter, but he is getting too much respect here. And Skaggs is only averaging 5 innings per start in his four starts this season. Skaggs is 2-2 with a 4.11 ERA in five career starts against Toronto.
The Angeles are 7-24 in their last 31 vs. an AL starting pitcher with a 3.40 ERA or better. Toronto is 8-2 after a game where its bullpen gave up no earned runs this season. The Blue Jays are 16-6 in Sanchez’s last 22 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Blue Jays Thursday.
|05-02-19||Raptors -1 v. 76ers||Top||95-116||Loss||-110||9 h 33 m||Show|
20* Raptors/76ers ESPN No-Brainer on Toronto -1
After shooting 51.9% in a Game 1 blowout victory, the Raptors were upset in Game 2. That’s because they shot just 36.3% from the field and 27% from 3-point range. They also let the 76ers shoot 11 more free throws than them.
I can’t foresee the Raptors shooting that poorly again. They are the better offensive team in this series, and they are certainly the better defensive team, which has shown. They have held the 76ers to 39.3% shooting and 39.5% shooting in Games 1 and 2, respectively. They clearly have Philadelphia figured out. It took a heroic game from Jimmy Butler to beat them in Game 2.
Plays on road favorites (Toronto) - a good team that outscores its opponents by 3-plus points per game, after scoring 90 points or less are 46-21 (68.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.
Toronto is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games overall, including 6-2 ATS in its last eight road games. The Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Toronto is 27-12-2 ATS in its lsat 41 trips to Philadelphia, and 14-5 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall. Bet the Raptors Thursday.
|05-01-19||Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 219||Top||97-90||Loss||-110||10 h 12 m||Show|
20* Blazers/Nuggets TNT Total DOMINATOR on OVER 219
The OVER is 5-0 in five meetings between the Nuggets and Blazers this season. They have combined for at least 223 points in all five meetings, and they’ve averaged 228 combined points in those five meetings.
The Nuggets and Blazers scored their most combined points yet this season in Game 1 with 234 points in a 121-113 victory by Denver. Neither of these teams are known for their defense, but they are both loaded offensively.
A big reason why they can’t stop each other is that they don’t have an answer for two star players. Nikola Jokic is a mismatch, and he had 37 points in Game 1. Enes Kanter can’t guard him. Damian Lillard had 39 points in Game 1 and the Blazers can’t defend the pick and roll because Jokic is so slow on his feet. Basically, both teams can’t defend the pick and roll, and they both run it as much as anyone.
The OVER is 21-7-2 in Blazers’ last 30 games when playing on one days’ rest. The OVER is 7-1 in Nuggets’ last eight games when playing on one days’ rest. The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Denver. Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.
|05-01-19||Indians -127 v. Marlins||2-4||Loss||-127||8 h 16 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -127
I love the value with the Indians today as small road favorites over the hapless Miami Marlins. This is an Indians team that is finally healthy after a slow start to the season and playing good baseball. The Marlins are just 8-21 on the season and one of the worst teams in the league.
Corey Kluber is off to a rough start this season, which helps explain why the Indians are such short favorites. But this guy is too good to be held down for long. And now he should be able to get right against a Marlins team that hits just .225 and scores 2.8 runs per game this season.
Caleb Smith is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers tonight because, unlike Kluber, he is off to a great start. Smith is 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in five starts. While impressive, it’s time to fade him now that he is overvalued.
Miami is 8-30 vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last two seasons. The Indians are 40-11 in Kluber’s last 51 starts when their opponent allowed 5 runs or more in their previous game. Cleveland is 60-29 in Kluber’s last 89 starts overall. Miami is 25-58 in its last 83 games overall. The Marlins are 3-10 in their last 13 home games. Take the Indians Wednesday.
|04-30-19||Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors||Top||109-115||Loss||-108||11 h 42 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Warriors TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston +5.5
Even with the Warriors getting all the calls in Game 1, the Rockets only lost 100-104. And the Rockets shot just 41.9% in the process compared to 50.7% for Golden State. That’s a good sign that the Rockets will win Game 2 with a few more things going their way.
Remember, the Rockets had the Warriors down 3-2 last year in the conference finals before Chris Paul got hurt. They went on to lose the final two games. I think they would have won that series had Paul not got hurt.
The Rockets won three out of four meetings with the Warriors during the regular season with their only loss coming by 2 points. They have clearly shown they are on the Warriors’ level, if not the better team now.
Houston is 8-0 ATS when playing with double-revenge this season. It is bouncing back to win by 15.8 points per game in this spot. The Warriors are 10-23-1 ATS in their last 34 home games. Golden State is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 games off a win. The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Rockets Tuesday.
|04-30-19||Celtics v. Bucks -7||102-123||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Milwaukee -7
Everything that could go wrong for the Bucks in Game 1 did. They shot just 34.8% as a team compared to 54% for Boston. Don’t expect that kind of discrepancy again. The Bucks will roll in Game 2 to even this series.
Remember, the home team went 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS last year when these teams met in the playoffs. The Bucks are 35-9 at home this season. They are scoring 119.2 points per game at home and were held to just 90 in Game 1. That’s nearly 30 points off their season average.
The Bucks are 18-4 ATS off a loss this season. They are coming back to win by 14.8 points per game on average in this spot. Milwaukee is 15-3 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite this year, including 9-1 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last two seasons. Take the Bucks Tuesday.
|04-30-19||Indians -1.5 v. Marlins||7-4||Win||100||7 h 18 m||Show|
15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-110)
The Cleveland Indians are finally nearly back to fully strength health-wise after missing several key players in their lineup. But their rotation has been dynamite once again to shoulder the load, and their bullpen has been one of the best in baseball.
Now the Indians send ace Trevor Bauer to the mound for Game 1 of this series against the lowly Marlins. Bauer was a Cy Young contender last year and has picked up where he left off, going 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in six starts this season.
Sandy Alcantara is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in five starts for the Marlins this season, including 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.812 WHIP In his last three. The Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball at 8-20 on the season. They are hitting .227 and scoring 2.8 runs per game as a team.
Miami is 8-29 vs. teams with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last two seasons. It is losing by 2.4 runs per game in this spot. The Indians are 7-2 in Bauer’s last nine road starts. The Marlins are 25-57 in their last 82 games overall. Miami is 2-7 in Alcantara’s last nine starts. Bet the Indians on the Run Line Tuesday.
|04-29-19||Blazers v. Nuggets -4||Top||113-121||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
20* Blazers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -4
The Portland Trail Blazers are getting a lot of respect from the books now after beating the Oklahoma City Thunder in five games. Well, the Thunder basically self-destructed and shot less than 41% from the field in three of the five games. Too many poor jump shots by Russell Westbrook did them in.
Getting Enes Kanter was huge for the Blazers to help make up for the loss of Jusuf Nurkic. But now Kanter has a shoulder injury and said it was difficult to even put his jersey on. It’s a separated shoulder, and I just think that now Jokic is going to dominate in this series, starting with Game 1. Jokic owned the Blazers in the regular season, too.
Getting Denver as only a 4-point favorite here is a nice value when you consider they are 37-8 at home this season. And the Nuggets won three out of four during the regular season. Their only loss came in their fourth and final meeting in a game that didn’t matter to them. The Blazers were 8.5-point home favorites in that game, compared to only 2-point home favorites in their first meeting in Portland.
The Nuggets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five conference semifinals games. The Nuggets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Blazers with their only loss coming in that meaningless game. Bet the Nuggets Monday.
|04-29-19||A's v. Red Sox -136||4-9||Win||100||8 h 2 m||Show|
15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -136
The Boston Red Sox are coming off back-to-back home losses to Tampa Bay. Look for them to be highly motivated for a victory at home here today, especially since they want revenge from losing three out of four in Oakland in their first series this season.
Eduardo Rodriquez has been dominant at home throughout his career with the Red Sox. He is at it again this season as he’s 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.631 WHIP In his two home starts this season with 15 K’s in 12 2/3 innings.
Frankie Montas is getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers here. He is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.273 WHIP in his two road starts this season, pitching much better at home than on the road. And Rodriquez is 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.043 WHIP in five career starts against Oakland.
Rodriquez is 22-4 vs. teams that strike out 7 or more times per game over the last two seasons. Rodriquez is 31-9 as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last three years. The A’s are 0-6 in their last six vs. AL East opponents. The Red Sox are 20-6 in Rodriquez’s last 26 home starts. Boston is 21-5 in Rodriquez’s last 26 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the Red Sox Monday.
|04-28-19||Reds v. Cardinals -134||2-5||Win||100||4 h 52 m||Show|
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -134
The St. Louis Cardinals are playing very good baseball right now. They have won six of their last seven games overall. They have a much improved offense this season as they are scoring 5.5 runs per game.
Now the Cardinals send ace Jack Flaherty to the mound today. He is 2-1 with a 5.25 ERA in five starts this season, but 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in three home starts. Flaherty has allowed just three earned runs in 10 innings in his last two starts against Cincinnati.
St. Louis is 13-1 at home against a starter that gives up 0.5 or more home runs per games over the last two seasons. Sonny Gray is 1-12 on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons. The Reds are 0-6 in their last six Sunday games. The Cardinals are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Roll with the Cardinals Sunday.
|04-28-19||Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 224||Top||112-90||Win||100||2 h 18 m||Show|
20* Celtics/Bucks ABC No-Brainer on UNDER 224
I expect a low-scoring Game 1 between the Celtics and Bucks. These teams are so familiar with one another after playing in a seven-game series in the playoffs last year with the home team winning each game.
Boston is 19-7 UNDER in road games off a win by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Boston is 11-2 UNDER in road games against good teams that outscore their opponents by 3-plus points per game I the second half of the season over the last two seasons.
The UNDER is 7-1 in Celtics last eight games against a team with a winning percentage above 60%. The UNDER is 4-0 in Bucks last four games playing on three or more days’ rest. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
|04-28-19||Brewers v. Mets -111||2-5||Win||100||3 h 47 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New York Mets -111
The New York Mets have lost three in a row, including the first two games of this series to the Brewers. It’s safe to say they will be motivated for a win here Sunday to avoid the sweep.
Steven Matz has pitched very well for the Mets this season, going 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA and 1.209 WHIP in five starts. He is 1-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two home starts.
Gio Gonzalez will be making his first start of the season for the Brewers today. He’ll likely be on a pitch count. Matz is 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in four career starts against Milwaukee.
Matz is 13-4 off a team loss over the last two seasons. The Mets are 24-11 in their last 35 games off a loss. New York is 6-1 in Matz’s last seven starts. Take the Mets Sunday.
|04-27-19||76ers +6.5 v. Raptors||Top||95-108||Loss||-102||10 h 16 m||Show|
20* 76ers/Raptors TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia +6.5
The Toronto Raptors are 2-14 in their last 16 during Game 1 of a playoff series. They are notorious slow starters. They lost to the Magic in Game 1 last series, and Kyle Lowry was held scoreless. He seems to disappear in Game 1’s and that has been the constant.
The 76ers are 39-19 ATS when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons. Toronto is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 during Game 1 of a playoff series. The Raptors are 4-14 ATS off four consecutive wins this season. Bet the 76ers Saturday.
|04-27-19||Brewers v. Mets -131||8-6||Loss||-131||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets -131
The New York Mets have lost two in a row, including Game 1 of this series to the Brewers. I expect them to be highly motivated for a win today to bounce back.
I’ll gladly back a starter the caliber of Noah Syndergaard at this price at home. He is off to a slow start this season, but it won’t last. And Syndergaard has never lost to the Brewers, going 2-0 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.781 WHIP in four career starts against Milwaukee.
Brandon Woodruff is struggling to start the season. He is 2-1 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.481 WHIP in five starts this season
The Brewers are 1-7 in their last eight road games vs. a right-handed starter. The Mets are 9-2 in their last 11 during Game 2 of a series. New York is 8-2 in Syndergaard’s last 10 home starts. Roll with the Mets Saturday.
|04-27-19||Indians v. Astros -128||3-4||Win||100||7 h 49 m||Show|
15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -128
The Houston Astros have lost the first two games of this series to the Indians. It’s safe to say they will be highly motivated for a victory in Game 3 today.
Brad Peacock has been one of the most underrated starters in baseball over the last few seasons. He is 1-1 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in three starts this season.
Peacock has never lost to the Astros, going 0-0 (2-0 money line) with a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in two career starts against them. He has allowed just two earned runs in 8 2/3 innings in those two starts. Take the Astros Saturday.
|04-26-19||Yankees v. Giants +116||7-3||Loss||-100||13 h 36 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Francisco Giants +116
The Yankees are starting to get too much respect from the books after winning six of their last seven games overall. They have the longest injury list in MLB, and it will catch up to them sooner rather than later.
The Giants come in with confidence after winning three straight on the road. And they come in fresh as they had Thursday off, while the Yankees completed a four-game set in Los Angeles. That’s a huge rest advantage here.
Madison Bumgarner is 1-3 with a 3.66 ERA and 0.969 WHIP in five starts this season. James Paxton is 1-1 with an 8.68 ERA and 2.251 WHIP in two road starts this year. Wrong team favored here. Roll with the Giants Friday.
|04-26-19||Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 233.5||Top||129-110||Loss||-110||12 h 27 m||Show|
20* Warriors/Clippers ESPN Total DOMINATOR on UNDER 233.5
It’s Game 6 between the Warriors and Clippers tonight. These teams are obviously very familiar with each other by now, and points will be hard to come by because of it.
I think this number has been inflated after these teams combined for 250 points in Game 5 after combining for just 218 points in Game 4. I think we see a similar output to Game 4 here as there’s no way the Clippers are going to shoot 54.1% again.
The Warriors are 14-4 UNDER in road games when revenging a home loss over the last three seasons. The UNDER is 18-8 in Warriors last 26 games overall. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
|04-26-19||Indians v. Astros -111||6-3||Loss||-111||11 h 31 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -111
The Houston Astros will bounce back after losing Game 1 of this series by a single run to the Indians. It’s rare you get the chance to back the Astros as this small of a home favorite, and we’ll take advantage today.
Colin McHugh is 3-2 with a 4.79 ERA and 1.063 WHIP in five starts this season. He had one bad start last time out that inflated his ERA, otherwise he’s been lights out. McHugh is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in two home starts this season. McHugh is also 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in two career starts against Cleveland.
Corey Kluber is 2-2 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.615 WHIP In five starts this season. He has allowed 10 earned runs and 4 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the Braves and Royals. Kluber gave up 4 earned runs and 3 homers in 4 2/3 innings in his last start against Houston.
McHugh is 25-7 at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 in his career. The Indians are 1-4 in Kluber’s last five road starts. The Astros are 21-8 in their last 29 home games. Houston is 35-16 in McHugh’s last 51 home starts. Take the Astros Friday.
|04-25-19||Nuggets v. Spurs -2.5||Top||103-120||Win||100||30 h 30 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Spurs TNT No-Brainer on San Antonio -2.5
The Nuggets managed to end a 14-game losing streak in San Antonio with their victory in Game 4. They followed that up with an 18-point home victory in Game 5. I think they are now being overvalued here, and I expect the Spurs to get a victory in this must-win game and keep this series alive.
This is a very young Nuggets team that hasn’t experienced a close out game outside of Paul Millsap. They are the toughest games to win, especially since they know they have a home game in their hop pocket in Game 7 if need be. The Spurs are going to want this game more, and that will show on the court Thursday night.
As mentioned before, the Spurs are now 14-1 SU in their last 15 home meetings with the Nuggets. They have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season as well, going 33-10 SU & 25-18 ATS in San Antonio. This is a very short number for them to be laying given those 14-1 & 33-10 numbers.
The Spurs are 24-5 ATS revenging a road loss this season, including 13-2 when revenging a road loss by 10 points or more. Bet the Spurs Thursday.
|04-25-19||Tigers v. Red Sox -1.5||3-7||Win||100||9 h 26 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-105)
The Boston Red Sox look to even up this series with the Tigers today. They lost the first two games, but bounced back with an 11-4 victory yesterday. I fully expect them to win by multiple runs again Thursday, so I’ll take them on the Run Line instead of laying the -200 plus.
Rick Porcello has turned it around after a terrible start to the season. This guy is too good to be held down for long. And Porcello has never lost to the Tigers, going 1-0 (3-0 money line) with a 2.25 ERA and 1.150 WHIP in three career starts against them.
Jordan Zimmerman got off to a great start for Detroit, but he has come back down to reality here of late. Zimmerman is 0-3 with a 9.22 ERA and 1.830 WHIP in his last three starts. He has posted a 4.45 ERA in five career starts against Boston as well.
Boston is 22-5 off a win by 6 runs or more over the last two seasons. Detroit is 3-16 after a game with a combined score of 15 run or more over the last two years. The Red Sox are are 52-24 in their lsat 76 home games. Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Thursday.
|04-24-19||Jazz +8.5 v. Rockets||Top||93-100||Win||100||8 h 22 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Rockets TNT No-Brainer on Utah +8.5
The Utah Jazz showed what they were capable of against the Rockets in Game 3 and 4 in Salt Lake City. Nobody in the league can defend the Rockets better than them, and that showed as they held the Rockets to 38.4% shooting in Game 3 and 35.4% in Game 4.
Now, the Jazz have the belief they can win in Houston and extend this series. The amazing part is that the Jazz still haven’t shot up to their capabilities once this series. They shot 39% in Game 1, 39.8% in Game 2, 41.6% in Game 3 and 43% in Game 4. They haven’t shot better than 31.4% from 3-point range in any game, and going 4-for-26 on open looks cost them Game 4.
I think their best shooting performance of the series is still to come. It’s a Jazz team that shoots 46.5% on the season and 35.2% from 3-point range while averaging 111.1 points per game. Yes, the Rockets are a good defensive team, but they aren’t this good. Now that they have some confidence after a 16-point victory in Game 4, expect the Jazz to knock down those open shots in Game 5.
Utah is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 off an upset win by 15 points or more as a home underdog. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.
|04-24-19||Tigers v. Red Sox -1.5||4-11||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-113)
The Boston Red Sox lost both games of their double-header with the Detroit Tigers yesterday, losing as -205 and -175 favorites. I have to think they’ll come back highly motivated for a victory here in Game 3 Wednesday night.
Eduardo Rodriquez has dominated at home as a starter for the Red Sox. In fact, he has been one of the most underrated starters in the league over the past few seasons. Rodriquez is also 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in four career starts against Detroit.
Tyson Ross has bounced around the big leagues due to poor performances. He is 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.545 WHIP in his two road starts this season, and this will be his toughest task yet up against a potent Red Sox lineup that he has never faced.
Rodriquez is 21-4 vs. teams who strike out 7 or more times per game over the last two seasons. Rodriquez is 22-3 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last three seasons, including 18-2 as a home favorite of -150 or more. The Red Sox are winning by 2.5 runs per game in both situations. Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday.
|04-24-19||Diamondbacks v. Pirates -111||11-2||Loss||-111||7 h 0 m||Show|
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh Pirates -111
After losing the first two games of this series to the Diamondbacks, the Pirates should be highly motivated for a victory at home here in Game 3 Wednesday. They have a big edge on the mound and we are getting them at a nice value here because of it.
Jordan Lyles has been lights out to open the season for Pittsburgh. He is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in three starts, allowing just one earned runs in 17 innings pitched with 18 K’s.
Merrill Kelly is 1-2 with a 4.37 ERA and 1.456 WHIP in four starts for Arizona, including 1-1 with a 5.58 ERA and 2.068 WHIP in his two road starts. This is a bad Arizona rotation, and Kelly wouldn’t start for most teams in this league.
Pittsburgh is 18-4 vs. teams who draw 3 or fewer walks per game over the last two seasons. The Pirates are 8-1 in their last nine when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 7-1 in its last eight after scoring two runs or less in its previous game. The Pirates are 11-4 int heir last 15 games following a loss. Take the Pirates Wednesday.
|04-23-19||Thunder +4 v. Blazers||Top||115-118||Win||100||11 h 56 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +4
The Portland Trail Blazers are already talking like they’ve won this series. They have been reflecting back on getting swept the last few years and how much criticism they’ve taken in the media that have fueled them. These are things you’re supposed to be talking about after the series is over, not before.
You can bet the Thunder have heard all the interviews and now will be the team playing with a chip on their shoulder. Russell Westbrook certainly needs quit taking contested jumpers, and he should be wise enough to make the proper adjustments in Game 4. Look for him to be in attack mode and looking to get to the rim every chance he gets, which is when he’s at his best.
Keep in mind the Thunder swept the Blazers in the regular season, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS. So they know they aren’t out of this yet. Win Game 4 and get this series back to OKC, and it’s a whole new series. I still believe they are the better team, and with their backs against the wall tonight, I expect their best effort of the season to try and stave off elimination.
The Thunder have shot worse than 41% from the field in all three of losses in this series. They are a much better shooting team than that, and the Blazers aren’t as good as they’ve shown defensively. It’s a Blazers team that gives up 110.1 points per game and 45.5% shooting on the season, and a lot of that was with their best defender in Jusuf Nurkic. Bet the Thunder Tuesday.
|04-23-19||Spurs v. Nuggets OVER 210.5||90-108||Loss||-110||10 h 46 m||Show|
15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Spurs/Nuggets OVER 210.5
Oddsmakers continue to set the bar too low here for this contest between the Spurs and Nuggets tonight. This has quickly become an OVER series as both defenses are struggling to stop the opposition.
Indeed, the OVER is 3-0 in the last three games in this series with combined scores of 219 points in Game 2, 226 points in Game 3 and 220 points in Game 4. Now the total is set at only 210.5 points in a game that should be pushing 220 easily.
The Spurs are 9-1 OVER in road games when revenging a loss as a favorite this season. Take the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|04-23-19||Braves v. Reds OVER 9||6-7||Win||100||7 h 56 m||Show|
15* MLB Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Braves/Reds OVER 9
For starters, the wind is expected to be blowing out to left-center at 10 miles per hour tonight in Cincinnati. The Great American Ball Park is already hitter-friendly, and now the conditions will be even more conducive to a high-scoring affair.
Both Kevin Gausman and Sonny Gray are going to take a hit to their solid ERA’s this season. Gausman gave up 8 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in his lone career start at Cincinnati. Gray has never beaten the Braves in two career starts against them.
Gray is 11-1 OVER in home games vs. good power teams that average 1.25 or more HR’s/game over the last three seasons. The OVER is 17-5-1 in Braves last 23 games following an off day. The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Cincinnati. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|04-23-19||Marlins v. Indians -1.5||3-1||Loss||-101||6 h 6 m||Show|
15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-101)
The Cleveland Indians have gotten several key pieces in their lineup back and healthy now. They are going to get back to being one of the best teams in the league moving forward with nearly a fully lineup to go with one of the best rotations in baseball.
Carolos Carraso had one bad start that is inflating his numbers when he allowed 6 runs in 2/3 of an inning to the Royals. But he bounced back by pitching 7 shutout innings with 12 K’s in a 1-0 win over Seattle last time out. Carrasco pitched 7 1/3 shutout innings with 11 K’s in his lone career start against Miami.
The Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball at 6-16 this season, including 1-5 on the road. Pablo Lopez has been battered, going 1-3 with a 5.85 ERA and 1.350 WHIP in four starts, including 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA and 1.655 WHIP in two road starts.
The Marlins are 1-9 in Lopez’s last 10 starts. Miami is 13-38 in its lsat 51 road games. The Indians are 24-7 in Carrasco’s last 31 starts during Game 1 of a series. Cleveland is 5-1 in Carrasco’s last six interleague starts. Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Tuesday.
|04-22-19||Rockets v. Jazz +3||Top||91-107||Win||100||11 h 30 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Jazz TNT No-Brainer on Utah +3
A lot has been made about James Harden opening 0-for-15 from the floor and the Rockets still winning Game 3. Well, that’s easily explainable that they won when the Jazz went 4-for-26 on wide open shots in Game 3. The Jazz had control of the game the entire way until the final minutes despite that terrible shooting performance.
The Jazz are a prideful team and will not go down without a fight here. They don’t want swept. And they certainly cannot shoot any worse than they have thus far in this series, shooting 39% in Game 1, 39.8% in Game 2 and 41.6% in Game 3. They have better shooters than those numbers, and I have to think they are due for at least an average shooting performance tonight.
Utah has found a way to slow down James Harden, perhaps better than any other team is capable of in the NBA. They have hung their hats on defense all season as they’ve been one of the best defensive teams in the league. And that’s why they have a good chance to get a win tonight with just an average shooting night, because their defense will be good again.
Quin Snyder is 30-16 ATS revenging a loss as a home favorite as the coach of Utah. The Rockets are 6-14 ATS in road games off a road game this season. The Jazz are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a loss. Bet the Jazz Monday.
|04-21-19||Blazers v. Thunder -6||Top||111-98||Loss||-105||37 h 14 m||Show|
20* Blazers/Thunder TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City -6
The Oklahoma City Thunder were 7.5-point favorites in a must-win Game 3. I was all over them as my 25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR, and they delivered with a 12-point victory. Now we are getting them in another must-win situation Sunday, but at an even better price. They are only 6-point favorites for Game 4 and we’ll take advantage.
The Thunder are a completely different animal at home. The ‘orange out’ by the fans was sweet in Game 3, and expect another raucous atmosphere here in Game 4. The Thunder have lost 11 straight road playoff games, but it has been a different story at home. And keep in mind that the Blazers are still just 2-11 SU in their last 13 playoff games.
Russell Westbrook promised he’d be more assertive on the offensive end leading into Game 3, and he delivered with 33 points. Look for him to remain in attack mode, especially after Damian Lillard really got under his skin in Game 3. This team took a business-like approach and will do so again in Game 4 against a Blazers team that is still undermanned without Jusuf Nurkic, and that’s just now starting to come to fruition.
The Thunder are 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their seven meetings with the Blazers this season. I stated they’d shoot better in Game 3, and they did just that going 15-of-29 (51.7%) from 3-point range. They are just so much more confident at home. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Oklahoma City is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games. Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. Bet the Thunder Sunday.
|04-21-19||Reds v. Padres -142||3-4||Win||100||7 h 38 m||Show|
15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres -142
The San Diego Padres have lost the first three games of this series to one of the worst teams in baseball in the Cincinnati Reds. They certainly do not want to get swept at home, so look for them to respond with a Game 4 victory today.
Joey Lucchesi is 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in three home starts this season for the Padres. He is coming off a very solid season last year and is one of the many young, talented arms in this rotation.
Tyler Mahle is 8-12 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.544 WHIP in 30 career starts for the Reds. The bulk of those came last season when he went 7-9 with a 4.98 ERA and 1.589 WHIP in 23 starts. He just isn’t very good, and the Padres will get after him today.
Cincinnati is 4-19 after allowing 4 runs or less in four straight games over the last three seasons. The Reds are 0-5 in their last five during Game 4 of a series. Cincinnati is 0-5 in its last five Sunday games. The Reds are 1-7 in Mahle’s last eight starts, including 0-4 in his last four road starts. Roll with the Padres Sunday.
|04-21-19||Astros -1.5 v. Rangers||10-11||Loss||-119||6 h 34 m||Show|
15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-119)
The Houston Astros should have no problem beating the Texas Rangers by two runs or more today. They have a big edge on the mound today with Colin McHugh over Shelby Miller, and they’ll be motivated to bounce back from a 9-4 loss to the Rangers yesterday.
McHugh has seized the opportunity to join this already dynamite Houston rotation this season. He is 3-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.826 WHIP in four starts this season. He is 5-1 in his nine career starts against the Rangers as well.
Shelby Miller is clearly one of the worst starters in baseball. It’s amazing he is still in a rotation. Miller is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 2.600 WHIP in three starts this season, allowing 10 earned runs and 26 base runners in just 10 innings pitched. Miller has posted a 5.19 ERA and 2.307 WHIP in two career starts against Houston.
Houston is 56-19 as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last two seasons, winning by 2.2 runs per game in this spot. The Astros are 7-1 in McHugh’s last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record. Houston is 19-7 in its last 26 meetings in Texas. Take the Astros on the Run Line Sunday.
|04-20-19||Rockets v. Jazz -2.5||Top||104-101||Loss||-104||16 h 10 m||Show|
20* Rockets/Jazz ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah -2.5
A little home cooking should do the Utah Jazz wonders after playing terrible in Houston while losing the first two games of this series in blowout fashion. The Jazz are favored for good reason here despite those poor performances because their season is on the line tonight.
The Jazz couldn’t have shot any worse than they did in Houston. They shot 39% from the floor and 7-of-27 (25.9%) from 3-point range in Game 1. They weren’t any better in Game 2, shooting 39.8% from the floor and 8-of-38 (21.1%) from 3-point range.
Now the Jazz are back at home in the friendly confines of Salt Lake City, where they are 29-12 on the season. While the Jazz will be laying it all on the line in this ‘must-win’ game, the Rockets could certainly let up in Game 3, especially after how easy those first two games came for them.
Plays on home favorites (Utah) - revenging a loss by 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Houston is 0-7 ATS in road games after leading their last two games by 10-plus points at halftime this season. The Rockets are losing by 9.3 points per game in this spot. Bet the Jazz Saturday.
|04-20-19||Reds v. Padres +110||4-2||Loss||-100||14 h 15 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +110
I’m back on the Padres today after a tough loss in extra innings to the Reds last night. Now they are extra motivated for a victory after losing five straight, including the first two games of this series to Cincinnati. And we are getting them at a tremendous value as home underdogs here.
Eric Lauer had a great spring and has been decent thus far in the regular season, going 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA in four starts, but 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in his two home starts. Lauer is 1-0 with a 1.00 ERA in two career starts against Cincinnati, both of which came last season as he allowed just one earned run in 9 innings.
Luis Castillo is getting too much respect from the books tonight. He has put up good numbers thus far, but he has never beaten the Padres, going 0-2 with a 5.17 ERA in three career starts against them. All three starts came over the past two seasons.
The Reds are 16-35 in their last 51 road games. Cincinnati is 3-13 in its last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Padres are 4-1 in their last five games after losing the first two games of a series. Roll with the Padres Saturday.
|04-20-19||76ers v. Nets +1.5||112-108||Loss||-103||9 h 35 m||Show|
15* 76ers/Nets TNT Early ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +1.5
The Philadelphia 76ers were able to overcome the absence of Joel Embiid in Game 3 by shooting lights out. They shot 48.4% from the floor and 40.7% from 3-point range as a team to take a 131-115 victory. Embiid is expected to be out again for Game 4.
The 76ers were way worse without Embiid during the regular season as he proved to be the most important player to any team in the league based on the numbers. And the 76ers aren’t going to shoot this well again, especially Tobias Harris and JJ Redick, who combined to go 11-of-15 from 3-point range.
Conversely, Brooklyn isn’t going to shoot as poorly as it did in Game 3. The Nets shot just 41.1% from the floor and a woeful 8-for-39 (20.5%) from 3-point range. They are looking at this game as a ‘must-win’, and I think they treat it that way while the 76ers know they still have two games at home to finish the series if need be.
The 76ers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win by more than 10 points. The Nets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss by more than 10 points. Philadelphia is 2-13 ATS after covering three of its last four against the spread this season. The 76ers are 7-21 ATS off two more more consecutive wins this season. Brooklyn is 21-10 ATS when revenging a loss this season. Take the Nets Saturday.
|04-20-19||Mets v. Cardinals -102||Top||2-10||Win||100||8 h 49 m||Show|
20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -102
The St. Louis Cardinals have lost three out of four coming in, including Game 1 of this series to the Mets by a single run yesterday. I expect them to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 2 tonight, and they dodge a bullet with the injury to Jacob DeGrom, which means they now face the much lesser Chris Flexen instead.
Flexen is 3-8 with an 8.45 ERA and 2.153 WHIP in two seasons in the big leagues, allowing 51 earned runs in 51 1/3 innings pitched. It’s hard to believe the Mets couldn’t call up someone better, but this is who they are stuck with.
Miles Mikolas is better than what he has shown this season, going 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA in four starts. But I think because of his poor start is why we are getting the Cardinals at a discount today. The Mets have never seen him, so that works to his advantage. Mikolas went 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA in 32 starts for the Cardinals last season.
Mikolas is 13-2 (+11.5 units) against the money line in days games over the last two seasons. The Cardinals are 8-0 in Mikolas’ last eight starts vs. a team with a winning record. St. Louis is 8-1 in MIkolas’ last nine home starts. The Mets are 0-4 in Flexen’s last four starts. Bet the Cardinals Saturday.
|04-19-19||Reds v. Padres -122||Top||3-2||Loss||-122||11 h 7 m||Show|
20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on San Diego Padres -122
The San Diego Padres come in highly motivated for a victory tonight. They have lost four straight, and as a result I think we are getting them at a cheap price here at home tonight. But this is still one of the most improved teams in baseball and they should get back in the win column tonight.
The Reds are just 2-8 on the road this season. Things won’t get any easier for them here with Anthony Desclafini on the mound. He is 0-1 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in three starts this season, including 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA and 1.921 WHIP in two road starts.
Matt Strahm had a great spring training for the Padres. He struggled in his opening start at Arizona, but has rebounding nicely by allowing just one earned run in 10 innings for a 0.90 ERA in his last two starts, both on the road at Arizona and St. Louis.
The Reds are 0-7 in Desclafini’s last seven starts. The Padres are 5-0 in their last five Friday games. Cincinnati is 20-47 in its last 67 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Take the Padres Friday.
|04-19-19||Blazers v. Thunder -7.5||Top||108-120||Win||100||11 h 37 m||Show|
25* NBA 1st Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s road playoff woes continued in Portland in Games 1 and 2. They have now lost 11 consecutive road games in the playoffs. But now they’re back home here in a ‘must-win’ Game 3 that should go their way from start to finish in a blowout victory.
Shooting has been the issue for the Thunder as they shot 39.8% in Game 1 and 40.7% in Game 2. They were 5-for-33 (15.2%) from 3-point range in Game 1, and 5-for-28 (17.9%) in Game 2. Obviously, it’s going to be hard for them to shoot this poorly again.
As is the case with most series, role players step up and hit shots at home and miss shots on the road. So guys like Ferguson and Grant for the Thunder will likely start hitting their shots in Game 3 tonight. And Russell Westbrook will be more assertive on offense after saying his play was unacceptable in Game 2. Look for huge games from both Westbrook and George as we see a very inspired effort from the Thunder tonight.
Plays on home favorites (Oklahoma City) - revenging a loss of 10 points or more, off two or more consecutive road losses are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Thunder Friday.
|04-18-19||Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5||Top||108-118||Win||100||10 h 48 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Spurs NBA TV No-Brainer on San Antonio -3.5
The San Antonio Spurs have controlled this series thus far outside of the 4th quarter in Game 2. They have pretty much led the entire way other than that one quarter, where Jamal Murray went off for 21 points. Look for them to take back control of this series with a win and cover at home in Game 2.
The Spurs have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season. They are 32-9 on their home floor. The Nuggets have a losing road record, and they just can’t win in San Antonio. Indeed, the Nuggets have lost 13 straight games in San Antonio, a streak that dates back to March 2012.
San Antonio is 7-0 ATS in home games when playing four or less games in 10 days this season. The Spurs are 27-8 ATS when revenging a loss this season. San Antonio is 20-2 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 points or more this year. They are winning by 12.2 points per game on average in this spot. Bet the Spurs Thursday.
|04-18-19||Dodgers v. Brewers +101||3-1||Loss||-100||8 h 22 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers +101
The Milwaukee Brewers get to stay at home after playing at home on Wednesday and concluding their series against the Cardinals. The Dodgers have to travel from Los Angeles to Milwaukee overnight and it’s certainly a favorable scheduling spot for the Brewers.
There’s no way the Brewers should be underdogs in this game given their edge on the mound as well. Kyle Davies is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA in three starts this season. Davies is 3-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in five career starts against the Dodgers, including 3-0 with a 0.45 ERA in his last three starts against them, giving up just one earned run in 20 innings.
Julio Urias is 0-1 with a 5.27 ERA and 1.317 WHIP in three starts for the Dodgers this season. One of those starts came against Milwaukee on April 12th as he allowed 6 runs in 5 innings of a 5-8 loss. The Brewers have also had the better bullpen this season with a 4.26 ERA compared to a 5.02 ERA for the Dodgers.
The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last four road games. Los Angele sis 1-6 in its last seven vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 0-4 in Urias’ last four starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Brewers are 20-7 in their last 27 games following a loss. Milwaukee is 4-0 in Davies’ last four starts. Roll with the Brewers Thursday.
|04-18-19||76ers v. Nets +3.5||131-115||Loss||-105||8 h 13 m||Show|
15* 76ers/Nets TNT ANNIHILATOR on Brooklyn +3.5
The Nets have really been impressive in this series with the 76ers thus far. They led basically the entire way in their 111-102 win in Game 1. They hung tough in the first half and only trailed 64-65 at the break in Game 2 in what was essentially a must-win game for the Nets. They got blown out in the second half, which is to be expected.
The Nets haven’t been to the playoffs in years, so it’s going to be a raucous atmosphere in Brooklyn tonight for Game 3. And the Nets will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after Joel Embiid was seen laughing about elbowing Jarett Allen in the postgame news conference. They want revenge in a big way here.
The Nets are 23-18 at home this season, while the 76ers actually have a losing record on the road. Brooklyn is 33-16 ATS when revenging a loss this season. The Nets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games when playing on two days’ rest. Take the Nets Thursday.
|04-17-19||Jazz +7 v. Rockets||Top||98-118||Loss||-107||10 h 53 m||Show|
20* Jazz/Rockets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Utah +7
The Utah Jazz are deploying a new strategy in defending James Harden. They are making him go to his weak hand with a trailing defender. They didn’t execute in Game 1, but they should be much more successful in Game 2.
The Jazz shot 39% compared by 50.5% for the Rockets in Game 1, as well as 25.9% and 36.6% from 3-point range, respectively. Utah is one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA, and they were actually out rebounded, too. Look for both of those stats to be swayed more in their favor in Game 2.
Utah is 10-1 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last two seasons. The Jazz are 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up loss. The road team is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the Jazz are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Houston. Bet the Jazz Wednesday.
|04-17-19||Pacers +7.5 v. Celtics||91-99||Loss||-105||7 h 24 m||Show|
15* Pacers/Celtics TNT ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +7.5
It’s pretty impressive the Pacers only lost by 10 to the Celtics in Game 1 with how poorly they shot the ball. They shot 33.3% from the floor, 22.2% from 3-point range and 57.1% from the free throw line. They certainly won’t shoot that poorly again, and as a result they should be able to stay within this 7.5-point spread in Game 2.
The Pacers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 conference quarterfinals games. Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following an ATS loss. Boston is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games. The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take the Pacers Wednesday.
|04-17-19||Cardinals +130 v. Brewers||6-3||Win||130||1 h 28 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday Early ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Cardinals +130
The St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep today after losing the first two games of this series to the rival Milwaukee Brewers. In fact, they have lost five of six to the Brewers, and I think they say enough is enough today.
I like that the Cardinals have the clear edge on the mound in this one. Michael Wacha has never lost to the Brewers, going 4-0 with a 3.53 ERA in 11 career starts against them. He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings for a 1.62 ERA in his last three starts against Milwaukee.
Corbin Burnes has been atrocious this season for the Brewers. He is 0-1 with a 10.05 ERA and 1.884 WHIP in three starts this season. Amazingly, Burnes has already allow 9 home runs in 14 1/3 innings. Look for the hot-hitting Cardinals to take him for a ride today, just as they did on March 31st when they hit 3 homers off him in 5 innings.
St. Louis is 14-6 (+9.3 units) in road games after having lost three of its last four games over the past two seasons. The Cardinals are 37-14 in their last 51 games after losing the first two games of a series. Roll with the Cardinals Wednesday.
|04-16-19||Thunder +1.5 v. Blazers||Top||94-114||Loss||-105||11 h 43 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Blazers TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma City +1.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder shot just 39.8% as a team and 5-for-33 (15.2%) from 3-point range in Game 1. The Blazers shot 11-for-25 (44%) from 3-point range. Yet, the Thunder still had a chance to win late and only lost 99-104.
Knowing that those shooting percentages will almost certainly turn in their favor in Game 2 as they can’t get much worse, I’m taking the Thunder to bounce back with a victory tonight. They still have several big advantages in this series, not the least of which is the loss of Jusuf Nurkic.
I think the Blazers will breathe a sigh of relief after they ended a 10-game playoff losing streak. And the Thunder will get back to dominating them just as they did in the regular season. The Thunder went 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS against the Blazers in the regular season. Bet the Thunder Tuesday.
|04-16-19||Spurs v. Nuggets -6.5||105-114||Win||100||9 h 19 m||Show|
15* Spurs/Nuggets NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Denver -6.5
The Nuggets lost 96-101 to the Spurs in Game 1. I was on the Spurs in that game, and they pulled the upset. But I’m reversing courses here and taking the Nuggets to get the win and cover in Game 2 in what is essentially a must-win game.
The Spurs are content with winning one game in Denver, and they were aided by some great performances from their role players in White, Gay and Forbes, who all scored 14-plus points. They were also helped by poor shooting by the Nuggets.
Indeed, the Nuggets shot just 42% for the game and 6-of-28 (21.4%) from 3-point range. That’s not going to happen again as this is one of the most dynamic offensive teams in the league, and the Spurs have the worst defense they’ve had in years. The Spurs shot 48.2% as a team and 46.7% from 3-point range in Game 1, also numbers that will be hard for them to match.
The Spurs are 17-25 on the road this season, while the Nuggets are 34-8 at home. Take the Nuggets Tuesday.
|04-16-19||Cardinals +110 v. Brewers||4-8||Loss||-100||8 h 54 m||Show|
15* MLB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +110
The St. Louis Cardinals want to exact some revenge on the Brewers today. They have already lost four of five meetings with the Brewers. But now the Cardinals send their ace to the mound in Jack Flaherty to take care of business after losing Game 1 of this series yesterday.
Flaherty is coming off a monster season and has picked up right where he left off. He is 1-0 with a 2.94 ERA in three starts this season with 18 K’s in 15 1/3 innings. Flaherty is also 1-1 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.133 HWIP in six career starts against the Brewers.
Brandon Woodruff has gotten off to a slow start for the Brewers, going 1-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.333 WHIP in three starts. The weakness of the Brewers is their rotation, and it will catch up to them over the course of the season as their bullpen has to be worn out after getting overused last year. Milwaukee’s bullpen has a 4.33 ERA compared to a 3.50 ERA for St. Louis relievers.
Plays on road teams with a money line of -125 to +125 (St. Louis) - after hitting three or more home runs in two consecutive games, in April games are 32-13 (71.1%, +19.8 units) since 1997. Roll with the Cardinals Tuesday.
|04-15-19||Nets v. 76ers -7.5||Top||123-145||Win||100||8 h 15 m||Show|
20* Nets/76ers TNT No-Brainer on Philadelphia -7.5
The Philadelphia 76ers shot just 40.7% in Game 1 and were upset as a result. They will come back highly motivated for a victory in Game 2 tonight to square this season. Look for them to get the win and cover at home tonight.
Joel Embiid did play in Game 1 after being questionable leading up to it. He hadn’t practiced before. Now that the 76ers got a feel for playing with him again, they should be much sharper offensively in Game 2. And look for them to get a lot more from Ben Simmons, JJ Redick and Tobias Harris, who weren’t assertive enough in Game 1.
I think there’s value here with the 76ers considering they were 8-point favorites in Game 1, and now they are only 7.5 to 8-point favorites in Game 2. The Nets are simply happy with stealing one game and won’t bring the same kind of effort for Game 2. They will have a hard time matching the intensity the 76ers play with tonight.
The 76ers are 31-15 ATS in their last 46 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Philadelphia is 31-11 at home this season. Bet the 76ers Monday.
|04-15-19||Mets v. Phillies -114||7-6||Loss||-114||7 h 21 m||Show|
15* Mets/Phillies ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia -114
We are getting the Philadelphia Phillies at a discount at home tonight against the New York Mets. It’s rare you’ll get the opportunity to back a starter of Aaron Nola’s caliber as this small of a home favorite, and we’ll take advantage today.
Nola had a huge season last year, but because he’s off to a slow start this season, he is currently being undervalued. Nola is 6-1 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.137 WHIP in nine career starts against the Mets, and the Phillies are 7-2 in those games.
Noah Syndergaard has also been a little off for the Mets, posting a 4.74 ERA in his three starts this season. And he hasn’t fared well against the Phillies lately, going 1-2 with a 6.06 ERA in his last three starts against them, giving up 11 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings.
Nola is 15-2 in home games vs. poor base running teams that average 0.5 or fewer stolen bases per game over the last two seasons. Nola is 17-2 in home games when working on 5 or 6 days’ rest over the last three years. Philadelphia is 21-6 in Nola’s last 27 home starts. The Phillies are 5-0 in Nola’s last five starts against the Mets. Take the Phillies Monday.
|04-14-19||Pistons +12.5 v. Bucks||86-121||Loss||-103||35 h 20 m||Show|
15* Pistons/Bucks TNT ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +12.5
The Detroit Pistons played about as well as anyone down the stretch just to make the playoffs. They went 19-12 SU & 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games overall to get to .500 on the season and snag the final playoff spot in the East.
And many of those losses came without Blake Griffin, who has an excellent chance to return to the lineup for the playoffs. The Pistons got a break with their Game 1 being on Sunday, meaning they have been off for three days since last playing on Wednesday. That should give him ample time to get rested and ready.
Even if Griffin doesn’t play, the Pistons are still good enough to stay within 12.5 points of the Bucks, who are also banged up. The Bucks are likely to be without Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol and Tony Snell to start the playoffs. And Giannis is banged up with a calf injury. The Bucks did not play well down the stretch with all these injuries, and it’s asking them a lot to cover a spread this high in Game 1 with all their injuries.
Dwane Casey is 16-2 ATS after leading their previous game by 20 or more points at halftime in all games he has coached. The Pistons are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Detroit is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games off a win by more than 10 points. The Bucks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 conference quarterfinals games. Roll with the Pistons Sunday.
|04-14-19||Cardinals -114 v. Reds||9-5||Win||100||7 h 26 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -114
Look for the St. Louis Cardinals to bounce back with a win today after losing yesterday in Cincinnati. I like the value on them as small favorites here considering their enormous edge on the mound in this contest.
Miles Mikolas is one of the underrated starters in what is an underrated rotation for the Cardinals. He has never lost to the Reds, going 2-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in three career starts against them, and the Cardinals are 3-0 in those starts.
Anthony Desclafini just isn’t very good. He is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA and 1.501 WHIP in his two starts this season. Desclafini is 0-1 with a 10.29 ERA in his last two starts against the Cardinals, giving up 8 earned runs in 7 innings of work.
The Cardinals are 23-7 in Mikolas’ last 30 starts. St. Louis is 14-2 in Mikolas’ last 16 starts when working on 5 days’ rest. The Cardinals are 7-0 in Mikolas’ last seven road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Reds are 0-6 in Desclafini’s last six starts. Take the Cardinals Sunday.
|04-14-19||Thunder +3.5 v. Blazers||Top||99-104||Loss||-109||32 h 50 m||Show|
20* Thunder/Blazers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City +3.5
I’m surprised the Portland Trail Blazers are actually favored against the Oklahoma City Thunder. They shouldn’t be favored in any game in this series, and as a result I’ll take the Thunder as road underdogs in Game 1 of this series.
The Blazers were swept by the Pelicans in the playoffs last year, getting upset despite having home-court advantage. And they are worse off this season with the loss of Jusuf Nurkic. His loss hasn’t been felt to close out the regular season, but it will be felt in the playoffs.
Now, Steven Adams’ job just got a whole lot easier, and he’s going to be a big factor in this series. Lillard and McCollum are two great players, but they aren’t good enough on their own to beat the Thunder without Nurkic, and there just isn’t a whole lot of talent outside those two now.
The Blazers will regret not losing their final game of the season, which meant they’d face the Thunder instead of the Jazz in the first round. The Blazers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS against the Thunder this season, and that one-sided dominance is only going to continue. They have no answer for Paul George and Russell Westbrook, who are better than Lillard and McCollum. Portland is 7-24-2 ATS in its last 33 conference quarterfinals games. Bet the Thunder in Game 1 Sunday.
|04-13-19||Spurs +6 v. Nuggets||Top||101-96||Win||100||15 h 1 m||Show|
20* Spurs/Nuggets ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio +6
There aren’t many series that have upset potential, but this is certainly one of them. That’s because the experience and coaching of the Spurs can overcome the young, talented Nuggets in a seven-game series.
I think the Spurs have a great chance to steal Game 1. Greg Popovich once again overachieved based on expectations, and let’s not forget the Spurs still have two of the best players in the NBA in Aldridge and DeRozan. They will be prepared for Game 1 tonight.
The Nuggets will be making the playoffs for the first time in a long time. They barely missed out on the playoffs on the final day of the season last year. They could have used that experience, and I think nerves will be an issue for them in Game 1 of this series tonight.
I also think the fact that Denver recently beat San Antonio by 28 at home has inflated this line. But that was the 2nd of a back-to-back for the Spurs, and nobody throws away back-to-backs like Popovich. In the other three meetings this season, the Spurs won by 8 and 1 at home, and only lost by 3 on the road.
The Spurs are 26-8 ATS when revenging a loss this season. San Antonio is 19-2 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points this season. The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven conference quarterfinal games. Take the Spurs in Game 1 Saturday.
|04-13-19||Mets v. Braves -131||Top||7-11||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -131
The Atlanta Braves will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday night. They lost the first two games of this series to the Mets and don’t want to lose three in a row. Due to their edge on the mound, they should be able to get a victory in Game 3 tonight.
Sean Newcomb is 0-0 with a 1.64 ERA in two starts this season. Newcomb owns the Mets, going 2-2 with a 1.82 ERA and 1.096 WHIP in six career starts against them.
Jason Vargas has posted a 3.60 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in his line start this season against the Marlins. He has a 3.97 ERA in five career starts against the Braves. He is on the back end of his career.
The Braves are 11-4 in their last 15 home games. Atlanta is 8-2 in Newcomb’s last 10 starts vs. NL East opponents. Roll with the Braves Saturday.
|04-13-19||Nets v. 76ers -5.5||111-102||Loss||-106||7 h 50 m||Show|
15* Nets/76ers NBA Playoffs Opener on Philadelphia -5.5
We are getting the Philadelphia 76ers cheap because Joel Embiid is doubtful. It would be a bonus if he plays, but I’m not expecting it. I still think the 76ers have enough to win this game by 6-plus points at home over the Nets in Game 1 Saturday.
This is a great story that the Nets have put together this year, making the playoffs after being down in the dumps for years. But that also means they’re inexperienced, and I’m not expecting them to be on their ‘A Game’ in Game 1 tonight because of it. Nerves will be an issue, and by the time they settle down it will be too late.
The 76ers still have four All-Stars and got their much-needed playoff experience last year. They are still the more talented team with the likes of Simmons, Butler, Harris and Redick. And they will get the job done at home today.
Philadelphia is 18-5 ATS after failing to cover four or five of its last six games this season. The 76ers are 20-8 ATS in home games when playing on two days’ rest over the last three seasons. Brooklyn is 14-29 ATS in its last 43 road games after covering the spread in three or more consecutive games. Bet the 76ers in Game 1 Saturday.
|04-12-19||Brewers v. Dodgers -141||8-5||Loss||-141||12 h 16 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles Dodgers -141
The Los Angeles Dodgers return home tonight in a sour mood. They were just swept in four games at St. Louis. But now they are back home where they are 5-2 on the season and they’ll be throwing what has been their best starter this season tonight.
Julio Urias is a great young talent who is a future star. He is 0-0 with a 3.11 ERA in his two starts this season, and he shut out the Giants in five innings in his lone home start. Urias is 1-0 with a 1.64 ERA in two career starts against Milwaukee.
Urias has a huge edge on the mound over Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes, who is 0-1 with a 9.90 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his two starts this season. He has already allowed 11 earned runs and 6 homers in 10 innings pitched.
The Dodgers are 23-9 in their last 32 home games. Los Angeles is 38-18 in its last 56 Friday games. The Dodgers are 5-1 in Urias’ last six starts vs. NL Central opponents. Los Angeles is 4-1 in its last five home meetings with Milwaukee. Take the Dodgers Friday.
|04-12-19||Mets v. Braves -105||Top||6-2||Loss||-105||9 h 25 m||Show|
20* NL East GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Braves -105
The Atlanta Braves will bounce back after losing Game 1 of this series to the New York Mets. They had won seven of their previous eight games and I fully expect them to get back in the win column tonight.
Kyle Wright has been solid in his two starts for the Braves this season, going 0-1 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in two starts. He was at his best in his lone home start where he gave up just 2 earned runs in 6 innings to the Marlins for a 3.00 ERA.
Zack Wheeler is off to an awful start for the Mets. He is 0-1 with a 10.24 ERA and 1.861 WHIP in two starts, giving up 11 earned runs and 18 base runners in 9 2/3 innings. Wheeler allowed 6 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 2/3 innings in his most recent start at Atlanta in a 2-8 loss.
The Braves are 11-3 in their last 14 home games. Atlanta is 9-1 in its last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Braves Friday.
|04-12-19||Orioles v. Red Sox -1.5||4-6||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
15* AL Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-127)
The Boston Red Sox played their first 11 games on the road this season. They have split their two home games, including a nice comeback win last night to get back in the win column. Look for them to carry that momentum into tonight’s games against one of the worst teams in baseball.
Eduardo Rodriquez has really owned the hapless Orioles, going 6-5 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.290 WHIP in 13 career starts against them. He’s been even better against them of late. Rodriquez went 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA in three starts against the Orioles last season, giving up just 3 earned runs in 17 1/3 innings.
David Hess is one of the worst starters in baseball. He has been particularly poor when facing the Red Sox, going 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA and 2.375 WHIP in two career starts against them while allowing 10 earned runs, 5 homers and 19 base runners in 8 innings.
Rodriquez is 19-4 vs. teams that strike out 7 or more times per game over the last two seasons. The Red Sox are winning by 2.2 runs per game in this spot. Rodriquez is 21-3 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last three years. Boston is winning by 2.5 runs per game in this spot. The Red Sox are 61-12 as a favorite of -200 or more over the last three seasons. Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Friday.
|04-11-19||Pirates v. Cubs -128||Top||0-2||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -128
The Chicago Cubs have gotten off to an awful 3-8 start this season. That has them a bit undervalued moving forward in my opinion, and I think we are getting them at a good value here at home tonight after losing to the Pirates yesterday. They will be motivated to capture their first series of the season with a Game 3 victory.
Jose Quintana had a poor start in his first outing at Milwaukee. This is a prime bounce-back spot at home tonight. Quintana is 1-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.107 WHIP in five career starts against Pittsburgh. He has allowed just 3 earned runs in 16 innings in his last three starts against the Pirates.
Joe Musgrove is being overvalued after pitching seven shutout innings against the worst-hitting team in baseball in the Reds in his first and only start. Musgrove is 1-12 (-10.8 units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 in his career. Bet the Cubs Thursday.
|04-10-19||Brewers -131 v. Angels||2-4||Loss||-131||12 h 9 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -131
The Milwaukee Brewers will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep tonight after losing the first two games of this series in Los Angeles. Look for them to get the job done tonight and get a win in Game 3 to avoid the sweep.
Making matters a lot easier for the Brewers is the fact that Mike Trout suffered a groin injury yesterday and is expected to sit this game for the Angels. He is only the most important player in baseball, so this injury is significant to say the least.
Brandon Woodruff is coming off a great season and a great spring training, and his job just got a lot easier without Trout. Felix Pena is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts for the Angels this season, averaging just 4.2 innings per start. The Brewers should jump on him early and often.
The Brewers are 15-2 in their last 17 during Game 3 of a series. Milwaukee is 6-1 in Woodruff’s last seven starts. The Brewers are 5-1 in Woodruff’s last six road starts. Milwaukee is 37-15 in its last 52 games overall. The Angels are 1-4 in Pena’s last five starts vs. a team with a winning record. Los Angeles is 18-38 in its last 56 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Roll with the Brewers Wednesday.
|04-10-19||Magic v. Hornets -2||Top||122-114||Loss||-109||10 h 47 m||Show|
20* Magic/Hornets ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Charlotte -2
The Charlotte Hornets have to win tonight and have the Detroit Pistons lose on the road to the New York Knicks to get into the playoffs. First things first. They will win at home tonight over the Orlando Magic and handle their business.
The Hornets have fought too hard to put themselves in this position to lose this game tonight. They have gone 8-3 SU & 9-2 ATS n their last 11 games overall, which includes upset wins over the Celtics, Raptors (twice), Spurs and Pistons.
The Magic have already clinched a playoff spot and really don’t care whether or not they lose this game tonight. There is some seeding at stake, but it’s minimal and not important because the top three teams in the East that they’d potentially face are all very formidable opponents in the Bucks, Raptors and 76ers.
Charlotte owns Orlando, going 13-1 SU & 11-3 ATS in the last 14 meetings. That domination continues tonight as the Hornets get the win and cover as short home favorites to keep their playoff hopes alive. Bet the Hornets Wednesday.
|04-10-19||Thunder -3 v. Bucks||127-116||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma City Thunder -3
The Oklahoma City Thunder still have a lot to play for tonight. If they beat the Bucks tonight, they would be the NO. 6 seed in the West. A loss though, and they could finish anywhere from 6th to 8th. They want to do anything possible to avoid the 8th spot and a matchup with the Warriors in the first round.
The Bucks have nothing to play for. They clinched the No. 1 seed in the East and the No. 1 seed overall, so they will have home-court advantage. They are expected to rest Giannis, Brook Lopez, Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic, Tony Snell and Pau Gasol, among others.
We have one motivated team playing all their starters up against a non-motivated team resting all their starters. It’s an easy choice here tonight folks. Take the Thunder Wednesday.
|04-09-19||Brewers -124 v. Angels||8-11||Loss||-124||11 h 58 m||Show|
15* Brewers/Angels MLB Late-Night BAILOUT on Milwaukee -124
The Milwaukee Brewers lost Game 1 of this series to the Angels when they didn’t have the edge on the mound. But they will bounce back in a big way with a Game 2 victory thanks to the edge that they have on the mound tonight.
Freddy Peralta has been huge for this team one the past few seasons. Peralta pitched 8 shutout innings while allowing only two base runners and striking out 11 in a 1-0 victory over Cincinnati last time out. He is the real deal.
Matt Harvey is done for. The Angels made a questionable move acquiring him this offseason. It has failed miserably already as Harvey is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.900 WHIP through two starts, giving up 10 earned runs and 19 base runners in 10 innings to the Rangers and A’s.
Harvey is 1-3 with a 6.39 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in six career starts against Milwaukee. In his final two starts against the Brewers last year, Harvey gave up 12 earned runs and 20 base runners in 9 1/3 innings for an 11.58 ERA.
The Angels are 0-7 in home games off four or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. They are losing by a whopping 5.0 runs per game in this spot. Take the Brewers Tuesday.
|04-09-19||76ers v. Heat -4||Top||99-122||Win||100||9 h 10 m||Show|
20* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -4
The Miami Heat have lost four straight games and now trail the Pistons by one game for the final playoff spot in the East. The Pistons have also lost four straight, opening the door for both the Heat and Hornets to catch them.
No matter what happens, you know that the Heat will be motivated to win what could likely be the final home game of Hall of Fame Dwyane Wade, who is retiring at season’s end.
The Philadelphia 76ers have absolutely nothing to play for. They are locked into the No. 3 seed in the East. That’s why they are resting Joel Embiid and J.J. Redick tonight due to minor injuries. They want nothing to do with winning this game tonight.
Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Miami) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 o more points, off two or more consecutive road losses are 52-21 (71.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Miami is 15-5 ATS off two or more consecutive road losses over the last three seasons. Bet the Heat Tuesday.
|04-08-19||Texas Tech +1.5 v. Virginia||Top||77-85||Loss||-103||14 h 18 m||Show|
20* Texas Tech/Virginia Championship No-Brainer on Texas Tech +1.5
Wrong team favored here. The Virginia Cavaliers are lucky to be here. They needed four comeback wins in their five tournament games, including their opener against Gardner Webb.
They only beat Oregon by 4 as 8.5-point favorites, needed a buzzer-beater to send the Purdue game to OT, where they eventually won by 5. And they trailed by 4 with under 10 seconds to play against Auburn, yet somehow won that game after a Kyle Guy 3-pointer and another Guy 3 free throws with 0.6 seconds remaining to win by 1.
Their miracle run comes to an end tonight against a Texas Tech team that had been hands down the most dominant team in the tournament and deserves to be here. The Red Raiders are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their five tournament games, winning four by double-digits with the only exception being their 6-point win over No. 1 seed Gonzaga.
While Virginia gets credit for its defense more than anyone, it’s actually Texas Tech that leads the country in defensive efficiency. They held Buffalo (58), Michigan (44) and Michigan State (51) to season lows in points in the tournament thus far. Virginia’s great defensive numbers are aided by the fact that they play at the slowest pace in the entire country.
This is a complete Red Raiders team with a star in Culver, four players in Moretti, Mooney, Edwards and Corprew who all shoot 38.8% or better from 3-point range, and three dogs on the inside in Owens, Francis and Odiase who handle all the dirty work and are the main reasons this team is so good on defense along with Culver.
Texas Tech is 14-1 SU & 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games overall. Chris Beard told his team that they were good enough to play on the final Monday of the season before the season started. They bought in, and he’s arguably the best coach in the country with what’s he’s done with this team in his three years here. Look for his players to deliver him a much-deserved title tonight. Bet Texas Tech Monday.
|04-08-19||Pirates v. Cubs -116||0-10||Win||100||7 h 18 m||Show|
15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -116
The Chicago Cubs capped off an ugly 9-game road trip in Milwaukee over the weekend with a 2-7 record. Well, now I think we are getting them at a discount in what will be their home opener Monday against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
This is a Pirates team that is getting too much respect off its four-game sweep of the Reds. Well, the Reds are one of the worst teams in the league with just one win this season. They were scoring 1.6 runs per game heading into yesterday’s contest.
It’s rare you’ll get the opportunity to back Jon Lester as this small of a home favorite all season, and we’ll take advantage. He is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two tough road starts this season at Texas and at Atlanta. Lester is 9-6 with a 3.18 ERA in 18 career starts against Pittsburgh, including 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two, pitching 12 shutout innings. The Cubs are 6-1 in Lester’s last seven starts vs. Pirates.
Lester is 13-1 (+11.8 units) against the money line at home vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 or more walks per game in his career. The Pirates are 8-23 in their last 31 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Cubs are 27-12 in their last 39 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Chicago is 11-1 in Lester’s last 12 Monday starts. Chicago is 38-14 in Lester’s last 52 home starts. Take the Cubs Monday.
|04-07-19||Hornets +6.5 v. Pistons||Top||104-91||Win||100||7 h 45 m||Show|
20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Charlotte Hornets +6.5
This is a must-win game for the Hornets. They trail the 8th place Pistons by two games and each team has three games remaining. If Charlotte were to go 3-0 and Detroit 1-2, they’d get in the playoffs.
That’s because the Hornets have swept the season series with the Pistons thus far, winning all three meetings. And now they go for the season sweep and are somehow catching 6.5 points against a team they’ve owned.
The Hornets are 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. The Pistons are starting to feel the pressure of making the playoffs. They are just 2-6 SU in their last eight games overall. Bet the Hornets Sunday.
|04-07-19||Thunder v. Wolves +6.5||132-126||Win||100||6 h 14 m||Show|
15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota Timberwolves +6.5
The Minnesota Timberwolves are always a tough out at home. And the Oklahoma City Thunder certainly aren’t playing well enough to be laying 6.5 points on the road to the Timberwolves.
The Thunder are just 4-7 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Timberwolves have won three of their last five, including upset home wins over the Warriors and Heat. Minnesota is now 25-14 SU at home this season.
The Timberwolves have owned the Thunder this season, going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings and will be going for the season sweep today. They have won outright as underdogs in all three meetings.
The Thunder are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. Western Conference teams. Oklahoma City is 1-8 ATS in Sunday games this season. The Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Thunder. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home meetings with OKC. Take the Timberwolves Sunday.
|04-07-19||Marlins v. Braves -145||3-4||Win||100||4 h 59 m||Show|
15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -146
The Atlanta Braves will bounce back with a victory today after losing at home to the Marlins yesterday. That was their first home loss of the season after they opened 4-0 at home.
Sean Newcomb is clearly the better starter in this matchup and it’s worth laying the price on him today. He pitched 4 shutout innings in an 8-0 win over the Cubs in his first start this year. Newcomb owns the Marlins, going 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA in six career starts against them.
The Marlins are 16-41 in their last 57 road games. The Braves are 10-2 in their last 12 home games. Atlanta is 5-0 in Newcomb’s last five starts against Miami. Roll with the Braves Sunday.
|04-06-19||Texas Tech +2.5 v. Michigan State||Top||61-51||Win||100||12 h 40 m||Show|
25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech +2.5
Texas Tech’s last three wins have been mighty impressive. They held a high-powered Buffalo offense to just 58 points in a 20-point wins, then they held Michigan to just 44 points in a 19-point win, and they pulled away late to beat Gonzaga 75-69.
That win over Michigan can tell us a lot about how this game is going to play out as well. Keep in mind Michigan State needed three second-half comebacks to beat Michigan all three times they played this year. They were fortunate to win those three games, so that gives them a common opponent, and the Red Raiders blasted Michigan by 19.
In fact, Texas Tech and Michigan State have seven common opponents this season. Texas Tech is outscoring those teams by 9.1 points per game, while Michigan State is only outscoring them by 6.4 points per game. It’s a great way to compare teams.
Texas Tech just doesn’t have any weaknesses. They are arguably the best defensive team in the country, they have a star in Jarrett Culver who averages 18.9 points per game, they have four 3-point specialists who all shoot 38% or better. And they have unsung heroes inside in Tariq Owens and Norense Odiase who can bang with anyone.
Texas Tech is 13-1 SU & 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games overall. The Red Raiders are 6-0 in their last six Saturday games. Texas Tech is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Bet Texas Tech Saturday.
|04-06-19||Auburn +6.5 v. Virginia||62-63||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
15* Auburn/Virginia Final Four ANNIHILATOR on Auburn +6.5 The Auburn Tigers have beaten Kansas, UNC and Kentucky in the last three rounds to get to the Final Four. I think it’s safe to say they are for real, even though they don’t get the credit they deserve. This team will go as far as electric guards Harper and Brown take them. And I don’t think their run is over just yet. It would be hard to feel good about laying this many points with Virginia. They beat Oregon by just 4 and Purdue by 5 in overtime after they got a miracle buzzer beater to force the extra session. They way they slow it down is conducive to close games. Auburn showed it could win in shootouts, shooting 52.5% in the 89-75 win over Kansas and 54.5% in the 97-80 win over UNC. But the Tigers also showed they could win the grind it out game, shooting just 40% in their 77-71 win over Kentucky last time out. Auburn is 12-0 SU in its last 12 games overall. The Tigers are 7-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take Auburn Saturday.
|04-06-19||Nets +8.5 v. Bucks||Top||133-128||Win||100||8 h 53 m||Show|
20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Brooklyn Nets +8.5
The Brooklyn Nets are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They are 39-40 and hanging on to a playoff spot, just one game ahead of the 9th-place Heat and two games ahead of the 10th-place Hornets. They need a win tonight.
The Milwaukee Bucks are primed for a letdown. They just clinched the top seed not only in the East, but overall, too. They did so with an impressive comeback against the 76ers in the final minutes. Now, they literally have nothing to play for in their final three games, and they should be resting starters.
Brooklyn also wants revenge form a 121-131 home loss to the Bucks on April 1st earlier this week. They don’t have to wait long to get their revenge tonight. And they come in on two days’ rest, so they are fresh and ready to go.
The Nets are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games playing on two days’ rest. Brooklyn is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Bet the Nets Saturday.
|04-06-19||Reds v. Pirates -121||5-6||Win||100||4 h 23 m||Show|
15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -121
Trevor Williams is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He went 7-3 with a 1.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP after the All-Star Break last year. And he picked up right where he left off in his opening start against the Red this year.
Williams pitched six shutout innings against the Reds in a 5-0 victory, also driving in a pair of runs to help his cause. He is now 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA in six career starts against Cincinnati.
Tannder Roark has a 6.24 ERA and 2.079 WHIP in his lone start for the Reds this season. He gave up 7 earned runs and 12 base runners in 5 innings in his last start at Pittsburgh, a 4-10 loss.
The Reds have now been shut out in three straight games and are scoring just 1.6 runs per game this season. They have lost six in a row coming in, and it won’t get any easier against Williams today. The Pirates are 14-1 vs. teams who draw 3 or fewer walks per game over the last two seasons. Roll with the Pirates Saturday.
|04-05-19||Celtics v. Pacers +1||117-97||Loss||-105||9 h 43 m||Show|
15* Celtics/Pacers ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Indiana +1
The Indiana Pacers just lost a 112-114 heartbreaker at the buzzer at Boston on March 29th. They don’t have to wait long for revenge now as they play them a week later, but at home this time around. And these teams are tied for 4th and 5th place in the East, so it’s a huge game likely determining which team gets home-court advantage in the first round.
The Pacers have been dynamite at home this season. They are 29-10 SU at home this year, while Boston is just 19-20 SU on the road. The home team has won all three meetings between these teams this season.
The Pacers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games. Indiana is 16-5 ATS in its lsat 21 Friday games. The Celtics are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games off an ATS win. Indiana is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take the Pacers Friday.
|04-05-19||Heat -3 v. Wolves||Top||109-111||Loss||-109||9 h 43 m||Show|
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -3
The Miami Heat are currently in 9th place in the East. They are a half-game behind both the Magic and Nets for the 7th and 8th spots. This is a must-win game for them Friday night in Minnesota, and they should get the win and cover here.
Minnesota has been playing without Robert Covington, Jeff Teague, Derrick Rose and Taj Gibson, and they remain out. The Timberwolves are just kind of going through the motions right now, going 3-8 SU & 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
The Heat are 11-3 ATS in non-conference road games this season. Miami is 26-12 ATS in all road games this season. The Heat are 45-16-2 ATS in their last 63 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Timberwolves are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Minnesota is 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The Timberwolves are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win. Bet the Heat Friday.
|04-05-19||Marlins v. Braves -150||0-4||Win||100||8 h 56 m||Show|
15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Braves -150
Kevin Gausman was acquired at the trade deadline from Baltimore last summer when th Braves were looking to make a pennant drive. He delivered in a big way, going 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts for Atlanta, including 4-1 with a 1.69 ERA in five starts in August.
Gausman is 2-1 with a 2.16 ERA in three career starts against the Marlins, striking out 14 batters in 16 2/3 innings. He faced the Marlins twice last season after joining the Braves and won both, the last of which was a five-inning shutout while allowing just one hit.
Pablo Lopez had a good spring, which is why he earned a spot in Miami’s rotation. But Lopez went 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.727 WHIP in two starts against the Braves last season.
The Marlins are 1-6 in Lopez’s last seven starts. The Braves are 9-1 in their last 10 home games. Atlanta is 8-0 in its last eight home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Braves are 7-2 in Gausman’s last nine starts. Atlanta is 5-0 in Gausman’s last five home starts. The Braves are 15-3 in their last 18 home meetings with the Marlins. Bet the Braves Friday.
|04-05-19||South Florida +1.5 v. DePaul||77-65||Win||100||8 h 37 m||Show|
15* South Florida/DePaul CBI No-Brainer on South Florida +1.5
The DePaul Blue Demons have been hit hard by injuries here down the stretch in this CBI Tournament Championship series with South Florida. They will be without both Eli Cain (13.1 PPG, 119 assists) and Devin Gage (8.8 PPG, 129 assists), their top two assist men. And they could be without Jaylen Butz (7.1 PPG, 5.9 RPG), who is questionable.
South Florida was already the better team coming into this championship series. But now they are far and away the best team considering the Blue Demons have lost both Cain and Gage to injury. Look for the Bulls to win Game 3 tonight and take down the title.
DePaul is 1-8 ATS after having won three of its last four games this season. South Florida is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games. The Bulls are 7-1 ATS as a road underdog or PK this season. South Florida is 8-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 77-plus points per game this season. The Blue Demons are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with South Florida Friday.
|04-04-19||Cavs +9.5 v. Kings||104-117||Loss||-104||11 h 35 m||Show|
15* NBA Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Cavaliers +9.5
The three NBA teams with the worst records in the league get an equal chance at the No. 1 pick this year. Well, Cleveland is basically assured of being a bottom three team now. So they can afford to try here down the stretch. And they’ve done a decent job of that as they are 8-6-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall. They have not packed it in yet.
I know their six-game losing streak doesn’t look good, but when you look at who they’ve played it’s easier to make sense of it. They’ve lost to five playoff teams in the Clippers, Bucks, Celtics, Spurs and Clippers, and they also lost on the road at Phoenix. Now they are rested and ready to go coming in on two days’ rest since that loss to the Suns Monday.
The Kings were recently officially eliminated from the playoffs. They have gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall, including their 25-point home loss to Houston on Tuesday. I just don’t foresee the Kings being motivated enough to put away the Cavs by double-digits, which is what it would take for them to cover this 9.5-point spread tonight.
Cleveland is 12-4 ATS after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games this season. Plays against home teams (Sacramento) - off a home blowout loss by 20 points or more, in April games are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS since 1996. Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Cleveland) - in non-conference games, off three or more consecutive road losses are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS since 1996. Take the Cavaliers Thursday.
|04-04-19||Reds v. Pirates -116||0-2||Win||100||8 h 35 m||Show|
15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Pittsburgh Pirates -116
Pittsburgh has actually outscored its opponents on the season despite the 1-3 record. Their three losses have come by 1, 1 and 2 runs. They are better than their record, and we are getting them at a great value as a short home favorite on the money line tonight against Cincinnati.
The Reds are 1-4 this season and have gotten nothing from their offense. They are scoring just 2.2 runs per game this season and hitting a woeful .167 as a team. And they won’t get much off of Jordan Lyles, who is 4-1 in his seven career starts against them.
Tyler Mahle has never beaten the Pirates, going 0-3 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in four career starts against them. The Reds are 0-4 in those four starts.
Pittsburgh is 13-1 vs. teams whose hitters draw three or fewer walks per game over the last two seasons. The Reds are 0-5 in Mahle’s last five starts. The Pirates are 7-2 in their last nine games following a loss. Pittsburgh is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven home meetings. Roll with the Pirates Thursday.
|04-04-19||Lipscomb v. Texas -1.5||Top||66-81||Win||100||7 h 30 m||Show|
25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas -1.5
The Texas Longhorns have saved their best basketball of the season for the NIT. They have won four straight to get here, and their last two wins were really impressive. They beat Colorado by 13 as 5-point home favorites and then got revenge on TCU with a 14-point win as 1-point favorites.
Lipscomb is very fortunate to make it this far. They beat NC State on a buzzer-beater in the quarterfinals, then erased an 11-point deficit against Wichita State in the final seven minutes and won 71-64, closing that game on a 21-3 run. Give them credit for getting here, but their run stops here against a superior Texas team.
Texas is 7-0 ATS after playing three consecutive games as a favorite this season. Bet Texas Thursday.
|04-03-19||Rockets v. Clippers -1||Top||135-103||Loss||-110||29 h 51 m||Show|
20* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Clippers -1
Don’t look now but the Clippers are currently only a half-game behind the Jazz for the 5th seed in the West. Prior to the season, nobody could have foreseen this coming. They lost Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan over the past few seasons, and traded away leading scorer Tobias Harris prior to the deadline.
The Clippers haven’t missed a beat, and this is one of Doc Rivers’ best coaching jobs ever. They play team basketball as well as anyone in the NBA, lacking a true superstar, but loaded with players who are playing their roles to perfection. And few teams have been playing better than the Clippers down the stretch. They are 13-2 SU & 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
While the Clippers come in fresh on two days’ rest having last played on Sunday, the Rockets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a trip to Sacramento Tuesday night. The Kings play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA, so that game will have taken a lot out of the Rockets. I don’t think Houston will have much left in the tank tonight.
The Clippers have won both meetings with the Rockets this season by a combined 24 points. Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with Houston. The Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a. Winning road record. Los Angeles is 7-1 ATS in its last eight vs. Western Conference foes. Houston is 1-11 ATS off three consecutive covers as a favorite over the last three seasons. Bet the Clippers Wednesday.
|04-03-19||Red Sox -131 v. A's||6-3||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
15* MLB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -131
The defending champs have gotten off to a disastrous 1-5 start in 2019. It’s safe to say they’ll now be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday, especially after getting shut out in losing each of the first two games of this series to the A’s.
Nathan Eovaldi came up huge for the Red Sox in the playoffs last year. He faced the A’s once last year, pitching six shutout innings without allowing a single hit with one walk in a 6-0 victory over Oakland.
Marco Estrada has never had much success against the Red Sox, going 3-7 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.507 WHIP in 15 career starts against them dating back to his time with the Blue Jays. In his last four starts against Boston, Estrada is 0-4 with a 10.59 ERA while allowing 20 earned runs in 17 innings.
The Red Sox are 41-14 in their last 55 during Game 3 of a series. Boston is 4-1 in Eovaldi’s last five road starts. Roll with the Red Sox Wednesday.
|04-03-19||Pacers v. Pistons -3.5||108-89||Loss||-107||8 h 54 m||Show|
15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Pistons -3.5
I love the situation for the Detroit Pistons tonight. This is a home-and-home with the Pacers, and the Pistons lost 102-111 in Indiana on Monday. Now they don’t have to wait long for revenge as they get them at home this time around Wednesday and will likely have Blake Griffin back in the lineup after he sat out Monday’s game.
The Pistons are an incredible 11-0 SU & 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 0-10 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, and 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
The Pacers are likely to be without three starters tonight. They were already without Victor Oladipo, but now both Wesley Matthews (hamstring) and Darren Collison (groin) have been downgraded to out for this contest. It’s revenge time for Detroit tonight as they get their 12th straight home win and cover. Take the Pistons Wednesday.
|04-02-19||Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 219||Top||102-116||Loss||-110||12 h 2 m||Show|
20* Nuggets/Warriors TNT No-Brainer on OVER 219
This is by far the lowest total of the four meetings between the Nuggets and Warriors this season. The first meeting had a total of 230.5, the second was 227, and the third was 234.5. Now we’re seeing a total set of only 219 points, which is 15.5 points less than the last total. I believe there’s value on the OVER as a result.
The books have lowered this total despite the fact that the last two meetings have easily sailed OVER this number. They combined for 253 points in their second meeting this season and 227 in their third meeting. And the Nuggets shot just 37.9% in that third meeting.
The OVER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings. The OVER is 25-10 in the last 35 meetings at Golden State. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.
|04-02-19||Diamondbacks v. Padres -105||8-5||Loss||-105||12 h 45 m||Show|
15* MLB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on San Diego Padres -105
The San Diego Padres lost Game 1 of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks. I fully expect them to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 tonight behind Eric Lauer, their 2016 first-round pick who had a 0.69 ERA and a 10-2 record as a junior at Kent State. That was the lowest ERA in the NCAA in more than a decade.
Lauer had a dominant spring training this year and picked up right where he left off in the opener, pitching six shutout innings while allowing only five base runners in a 2-0 victory over the Giants. Lauer is 1-0 with a 0.79 ERA in two career starts against the Diamondbacks, both of which came last season.
Zack Greinke has lost velocity on his fastball and is on the downside of his career. He was roughed up in his opening start, giving up 7 earned runs and 4 homers in 3 2/3 innings of a 5-12 loss to the Dodgers. I expect his struggles to continue tonight.
The Diamondbacks are 1-9 in their last 10 games following a win. The Padres are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss. San Diego is 5-0 in Lauer’s last five starts. Roll with the Padres Tuesday.
|04-02-19||Wichita State v. Lipscomb||64-71||Loss||-105||9 h 36 m||Show|
15* Wichita State/Lipscomb NIT ANNIHILATOR on Wichita State PK
Nobody has faced a tougher path to get to the NIT semifinals than Wichita State. They’ve gone on the road and pulled off three outright upsets over Furman 76-70 as 4-point dogs, Clemson 63-55 as 7-point dogs and Indiana 73-63 as 3.5-point dogs.
Certainly Lipscomb’s run to the semifinals has been impressive as well, winning at Davidson, at UNC-Greensboro and at NC State. But their run stops here against the better team and the better coach in Wichita’s Greg Marshall.
Wichita State is 8-1 ATS in all tournament games this season. The Shockers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Wichita State is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Take Wichita State Tuesday.
|04-01-19||Magic +7 v. Raptors||109-121||Loss||-105||8 h 2 m||Show|
15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +7
The Orlando Magic are a half-game back of the Heat for 8th, one game back of the Nets for 7th and 1.5 games back of the Pistons for 6th. They have a legitimate shot to make the playoffs here with just five games to play. And I know they’ll be max motivated tonight against the Raptors.
It’s safe to say the Magic have been playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch with hopes of making the playoffs. Indeed, the Magic are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. That includes upset road wins over both Miami and Indiana.
The Raptors are stuck in limbo. They are three games out of first place in the East with five games to go, and 4.5 games ahead of 3rd place. They really have nothing to play for the rest of the way, and it’s starting to show. Don’t be surprised if they continue giving their starters some rest with nothing to play for.
Nobody has played Toronto tougher than Orlando this season. The Magic are 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in their three meetings with the Raptors. They only lost by 2 at home as 7-point dogs, won by 29 at home as 4.5-point dogs, and won by 15 on the road as 6.5-point dogs. Now they are catching 7 points in the 4th and final meeting, which is simply too much given what’s at stake for them.
Toronto is 0-7 ATS after scoring 110 points or more in four straight games this season. Orlando is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Magic are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents. The Raptors are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest Division foes. Orlando is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the Magic Monday.