15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Weber State -2

Weber State has been impressive against a brutal schedule this season.  After opening with a 130-38 win over West Coast Baptist, the Wildcats have played three straight brutal road games and nearly pulled off the upset in all three.

It started with a 92-89 (OT) road loss as 15.5-point dogs at Utah.  The Wildcats followed that up with a 83-73 road loss at Utah State as 22-point dogs.  And last time out they only lost 79-70 at UC-Irvine as 11-point dogs.  It's safe to say they are happy to be back home tonight and will take advantage and get in the win column.

Weber State takes a big step down in class here against the Campbell Camels.  It's a rebuilding Campbell team with 32-year-old Florida assistant John Andrzejek.  They lose four of their top five scorers from a team that went 15-17 last year.

Campbell was blasted by 32 at Wisconsin and then played a competitive game at rebuilding West Virginia in a 8-point loss in their first two games of the season.  They failed to cover in a 9-point win as 9.5-point favorites against a bad Western Michigan team at home.  They are coming off a blowout home win over Mid Atlantic Christian.  Bet Weber State Wednesday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Heat -6.5

I released the Heat -6.5 with the anticipation that the Golden State Warriors would rest Steph Curry among others.  The Warriors are playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th road game in 9 days, which is as tough of a rest situation as there is in the NBA.  Steve Kerr usually plays it smart and rests his stars.

The result has been even better than expected.  Not only is Curry (27.9 PPG) out, but Jimmy Butler (20.1 PPG), Jonathan Kumingo (13.8 PPG) and Draymond Green (7.9 PPG) have all been ruled out since.  Buddy Hield (6.6 PPG) may sit as well.  The Warriors will be sending a G League team out there tonight.

The Heat made the mistake of taking the Cavaliers lightly without their superstars a week ago tonight.  After upsetting the Cavs 140-138 (OT) two nights prior, the Heat didn't show up in a 130-116 loss to the Cavs and their backups.  They talked about how disappointed they were in their performance after the game and the fact that they took the Cavs lightly.  They won't make the same mistake a week later.  Look for the Heat to bury the Warriors early and not let them up for air for 4 quarters.  

The Heat are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their six home games this season with their lone loss coming in that letdown to the Cavs.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Pacers OVER 234.5

The Charlotte Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy.  Well, he is healthy and playing now, and the Hornets play with a lot more pace with him running the show.  They face another dead nuts OVER team in Indiana tonight in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the week.

The Pacers rank 10th in pace this season despite playing without Tyrese Haliburton for the entire season and TJ McConnell for 90% of it thus far.  McConnell is back to run the offense, so the Pacers should play even faster moving forward.  Indiana is 3-1 OVER in its last four games combining for 239 points with Detroit and a bunch of backups for the Pistons, 240 with the Raptors, 231 with the Suns and 280 with the Jazz.

These are two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA as the Pacers rank 26th in defensive rating while the Hornets rank 23rd.  Both teams should get whatever they want offensively in what should be a high-scoring, fast-paced game tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kent State +9.5

Kent State kept its bowl hopes alive with a 42-35 (OT) home win over Akron last week.  The Golden Flashes sit at 4-6 on the season with a real shot to make a bowl if they win this game tonight.  They have lowly Northern Illinois on deck next week.

It's time to 'sell high' on Central Michigan after going 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall and in contention for the MAC Championship Game now.  The three wins came against Bowling Green, UMass and Buffalo, three of the worst teams in the MAC.

Central Michigan is just 1-4 SU in its last five road games with the lone win coming against Bowling Green who was without its starting QB.  They lost by 6 at Akron for a common opponent.  Kent State is 3-1 SU at home this season with the lone loss coming by 3 points.

Kent State QB Dru DeShields is grossly underrated.  He has a 16-to-2 TD/INT ratio on the season while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  He went 17-of-25 for 317 yards against Akron last time out.  I think he'll have what it takes to keep this game competitive against Central Michigan with the Golden Flashes having a shot to pull off the upset in the 4th quarter.  Bet Kent State Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Mount St. Mary's +20.5

Maryland is a rebuilding team under first-year head coach Buzz Williams.  The Terrapins are 1-3 ATS beating Coppin State by 22 as 28.5-point favorites, losing outright at home to Georgetown by 10 as 5-point favorites, and only beating Alcorn State by 20 as 29.5-point favorites.

But the Terrapins are now getting too much respect off their 89-82 upset road win as 8.5-point dogs at Marquette.  That's an overrated Marquette team that also lost by 23 to Indiana.  It also sets the Terrapins up for a letdown spot after Buzz Williams beat his former team.  They have the Player Era Festival on deck in Las Vegas, making this a sandwich spot as well.

Mount St. Mary's has been impressive going 3-1 ATS against a very tough schedule.  The Mountaineers only lost by 16 at WVU as 19.5-point dogs, beat St. Francis by 8 as 6.5-point road favorites and only lost by 17 as 25.5-point dogs at Cincinnati.  If they can hang with WVU and Cincinnati, they can certainly stay within 20.5 points of this Maryland team tonight.  Bet Mount St. Mary's Wednesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Jazz/Lakers OVER 238.5

The Jazz are 3-0 OVER in their last three games combining for 254 points with the Bulls at the end of regulation, 254 with the Hawks and 270 with the Pacers.  The Jazz rank 10th in pace and 24th in defensive rating, and as long as Markkanen is healthy and playing the Jazz are a pretty solid offensive team as well.

The Lakers are expected to be fully healthy for the first time this season with LeBron James making his debut.  Doncic and Reaves have really clicked, and adding LeBron to the fold should only make them even more of a juggernaut offensively.  Gabe Vincent also makes his return.

The Lakers are 9-5 OVER in their 14 games this season.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Jazz and Lakers finishing with 242 or more combined points in five of those six meetings.  This total of 238.5 is too short tonight.  Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Sacramento State +28.5

It has pretty much been a staple since Mick Cronin took over at UCLA.  The Bruins play at one of the slowest tempos in the country and they are a poor shooting team.  That makes it difficult for them to cover these inflated spreads.

It's clear the Bruins are one of the most overrated teams in the country after a 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS start this season.  They have failed to cover their four spreads by a combined 56.5 points.  They only beat Eastern Washington by 6 as 30-point favorites, Pepperdine by 11 as 29.5-point favorites and West Georgia by 21 as 30.5-point favorites.

First-year head coach Mike Bibby has injected some new life into this Sacramento State program.  They are off to a 3-2 start this season with both losses coming at the wire by 4 at UC Davis as 5-point dogs and by 5 at home to UCSB as 7.5-point dogs, covering the spread in both games.  He has an elite trio of scorers in Jeremiah Cherry (18.2 PPG), Prophet Johnson (16.4 PPG) and Mikey Williams (16.4 PPG) running the show.  They will relish this opportunity to compete with UCLA tonight.  Bet Sacramento State Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Wichita State +10.5

Wichita State is one of the more underrated teams in the country.  The Shockers are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS covering their first three games by a combined 51 points.  Now they take on one of the more overrated teams in the country in Boise State.

That was evident when Boise State lost outright to Hawaii Pacific in their opener.  Last time out, the Broncos barely escaped with a 4-point win as 17-point home favorites against Montana.  They have no business being a double-digit favorite tonight against the Shockers.  Bet Wichita State Tuesday.

20* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK on Atlanta Hawks PK

The Atlanta Hawks have actually been better without Trae Young.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall with four road wins and an upset home win over the Lakers by 20.  I look for them to take down the Detroit Pistons tonight.

This is a tough spot for the Pistons playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 127-112 home win over one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Indiana Pacers.  Yes, the Pistons currently have a 10-game winning streak, but they are overvalued now because of it as it has come against abut the softest schedule you could imagine.  

The Pistons only beat two teams with winning records during this 10-game winning streak, and those were the 76ers (8-5) and Bulls (7-6), two mediocre teams.  The Hawks (9-5) are the best team they will have played since a 21-point loss to the Cavaliers prior to this streak.

Injuries are a big problem for the Pistons right now with LeVert, Ivey and Sasser out while Cunningsham, Thompson and Harris are all questionable to play tonight.  Bet the Hawks Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee-Martin +20.5

This is a play against a Florida State team in a clear letdown spot.  The Seminoles are coming off a 78-76 loss as 17-point dogs to defending national champ Florida.  It's safe to say they won't be nearly as motivated to beat UT-Martin as they were Florida.

That result against the Gators also has the Seminoles getting too much respect here as 20.5-point favorites.  This is a rebuilding FSU team with a first-year head coach who have opened 3-0 ATS and are getting some love now.  Florida is nowhere near as good as last season, so that result is a little misleading to say the least.

UT-Martin has been impressive thus far.  They opened with a 86-81 upset win at UNLV as 17.5-point dogs, came back with a 97-42 win over Kentucky Christian, and backed it up with a 78-67 road win at Bradley as 15.5-point dogs.  It looks as though this is clearly one of the more underrated teams in the country, and they prove it once again tonight by going on the road and hanging with Florida State.  Bet Tennessee-Martin Tuesday.

20* Michigan State/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky -4.5

I like the fact that Kentucky already has a loss this season so we are getting the Wildcats at a discount.  They lost on the road 96-88 as 6-point dogs at Louisville, one of the best teams in the country.

The Wildcats responded with a 99-53 win over Eastern Illinois easily covering as 35.5-point favorites.  Now they will take down this overrated, poor shooting Michigan State team that is 3-0 thanks to three home games to open the season.  This game will be played on a neutral at Madison Square Garden.

Michigan State has not been impressive at all.  The Spartans beat Colgate 80-69 as 22-point favorites in their opener.  That's a Colgate team that suffered a bad loss to Northwestern at home, and barely beat Drexel by 7 and Siena by 3.  They beat Arkansas 69-66 as 2.5-point home favorites.  That's an Arkansas team that nearly lost outright to Samford 79-75 at home.  And they beat San Jose State 79-60 as 24-point favorites.  That's a 1-3 San Jose State team whose only win came against Bethesda.

The problem all season for the Spartans is going to be a lack of shooting as they are 256th in effective FG percentage (47.2%) and 352nd in 3-point percentage (21.7%) to this point despite the soft schedule.  They face an elite Kentucky offense that is already 8th in offensive efficiency, 18th in effective FG percentage (59.7%) and 1st in 2-point percentage (66.2%).  Bet Kentucky Tuesday.

20* Cowboys/Raiders ESPN No-Brainer on Dallas -3

I love the spot for the Dallas Cowboys this week.  They are off their bye week and had extra time to deal with the death of Marshawn Kneeland.  Now they will be playing inspired football for their teammate, and their defense will look nothing like it has up to this point in the season, which has been one of the worst units in football.

The Cowboys could have as many as five key contributors available that they haven't had this season.  They traded for Quinnen Williams and he and Kenny Clark will form one of the best run-stuffing duos in the NFL moving forward.  They get back pass-rusher DeMarvion Overshown from IR, and he is the player the Cowboys believed in enough to trade away Micah Parsons.  They get CB Shavon Revel to make his season debut.  S Malik Hooker should be back from IR and felow S Donovan Wilson will be back as well.  This is going to be one of the most improved defenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Cowboys have an elite offense and are fully healthy on offense to boot.  They rank 4th in scoring offense at 29.2 points per game and 4th in total offense at 378.4 yards per game.  Their offensive line is fully healthy, and they have their full compliment of weapons for Dak Prescott.  This will remain one of the best offenses in the NFL moving forward.

The Raiders are an absolute dumpster fire.  They are 2-7 on the season and traded away their best receiver in Jakobi Myers, who is already making big plays for the Jaguars.  Their offense is embarrassing, ranking 31st in scoring offense at 15.4 points per game and 30th in total offense at 272.7 yards per game.  Basically stop Brock Bowers and Ahton Jeanty and you stop the Raiders, which will be Dallas' focus.  QB Geno Smith was noticeably hobbled in the 2H against the Broncos last week and may not be 100%.  He will be playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL especially now that they are down two starters in LT Kolton Miller and RG Jackson Powers-Johnson.

The Raiders just don't have the firepower to keep up with the Cowboys, and I think the defense is a little overrated due to a pretty easy schedule of opposing offenses.  When they have faced some of the better offenses in the NFL they have allowed 41 points to the Commanders, 40 to the Colts, 31 to the Chiefs and 30 to the Jaguars.  I expect the Cowboys to get to 30 tonight, and it will be more than enough to cover this 3-point spread.  Bet the Cowboys Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Miami Heat -1.5

I love the spot for the Miami Heat tonight.  They get a shot at quick revenge after losing 140-132 in New York to the Knicks on Friday.  They will get that revenge tonight, especially with the Knicks playing without both Jalen Brunson (28.0 PPG, 6.5 APG) and OG Anunoby (15.8 PPG).

The Heat have been a resilient team and haven't lost three straight all season.  They won't be losing three in a row for the first time tonight, either.  The Heat are 5-1 SU at home this season with their only loss coming the next night after beating the Cavaliers, suffering a letdown spot in the rematch.  

The Knicks are 0-3 SU on the road this season.  They lost by 8 to the Heat, by 10 to the Bucks and by 10 to the Bulls.  This will be their first road game since October 31st as they have benefitted from a very home-heavy schedule this season.  Bet the Heat Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Raptors OVER 239.5

The Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball (22.3 PPG, 9.9 APG) is healthy and in the lineup.  He recently returned from an ankle injury in a 147-134 loss to the Bucks.  He sat out the next night against the Thunder, but he's back tonight against the Raptors.

The Hornets play much faster with Ball running the show, and the Raptors like to run as well ranking 12th in pace.  The Raptors went for 240 combined points with the short-handed Pacers and 239 with the short-handed avs in their last two games.  They went for 250 with the 76ers four games back.  They are fully healthy right now and thriving offensively scoring 119 or more points in four consecutive games.

The last time Ball faced the Raptors last season these teams went for 271 combined points in a 138-133 victory for Charlotte.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Knicks/Heat OVER 244

The Heat are lapping the field in the NBA playing at a much faster pace than anyone while ranking 1st in pace this season.  Oddsmakers just can't set their totals high enough as they are 9-4 OVER in their 13 games this season.  They have failed to set it high enough tonight, too.

The Knicks are also a dead nuts OVER team going 9-3 OVER in their 12 games this season.  They are without Brunson and Anunoby, but being without Anunoby hurts much more defensively than it does on offense.  It means more playing time for Jordan Clarkson, who is a terrible defender but instant offense.

These teams just played on Friday with the Knicks winning 140-132 for 272 combined points.  Shamet had 36 points while Clarkson had 24 and Hart had a triple-double for the Knicks, showing that they have a deep bench.  They are worse off defensively with those guys getting more minutes, though.

The Knicks attempted 53 3-pointers while the Heat shot 44 in that first meeting, and it will be another game played either at the rim or behind the 3-point line.  I see another shootout that easily eclipses this 244-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday Total DOMINATOR on St. Joe's/Penn OVER 161.5

Former Penn alum Fran McCaffery returned to his alma mater after a disappointing run with the Iowa Hawkeyes.  That's a Iowa Hawkeyes team that was a dead nuts OVER team in his time there as they were all offense and no defense while playing at a fast pace.  It will be the same for him at Penn.

The Quakers returned the league's top scorer in Ethan Roberts (16.8 PPG LY).  He is thriving under McCaffery thus far averaging 20.7 PPG.  So is Michael Zanoni (18.0 PPG), who is one of nine returning players for the Quakers.  Former five-star Duke commit TJ Power (10.3 PPG) also likes his new home.

Penn ranks 35th in adjusted tempo and 345th in adjusted defense this season already.  The Quakers opened with a 119-72 win over Rowan U for 191 combined points.  They came back with a 84-78 loss at American for 162 combined points.  And last time out they lost at Providence 106-81 for 187 combined points.  This total of 161.5 is too low for a game involving Penn.

St. Joe's has gone 2-1 OVER thus far despite playing a few good defensive-minded teams in Drexel and VA Tech.  The Hawks have four players scoring in double figures, and after a poor shooting start to the season should put forth their best offensive outing since putting up 85 points on Lafayette in the opener.  They just allowed 94 points to VA Tech.  They rank 131st in adjusted tempo so don't mind playing fast, either.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* Florida/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +10.5

The Florida Gators are grossly overvalued this season after winning the National Championship last season.  They lost all their best guards from that team that led them to the title.  And they are failing to live up to expectations thus far.

The Gators are 2-1 SU & 0-3 ATS this season.  They lost outright to Arizona as 3.5-point favorites, failed to cover as 43.5-point favorites against North Florida, and escaped with a 2-point win over Florida State as 17.5-point favorites.  They should not be double-digit favorites here against Miami.

The Hurricanes will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They had the money to spend and did so in bringing in Auburn transfer Tre Donaldson, Indiana transfer Malik Reneau and New Mexico transfer Tru Washington.  5-star recruit Shelton Henderson won gold with USA U-18 and flipped from Duke to Miami.

The Hurricanes are 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS this season.  They opened with a 17-point win over Jacksonville as 19-point favorites to barely miss the cover.  They blasted Bethune-Cookman by 40 as 16.5-point favorites and covered in a 41-point win over Stetson as 34.5-point favorites.  That's the same Bethune-Cookman team that took Auburn to OT and only lost by 9 at Dayton.

Reneau (21.3 PPG), Donaldson (16.3 PPG, 6.0 APG), Washington (14.0 PPG) and Henderson (12.3 PPG) have bene awesome thus far and the chemistry is clearly there already.  The Hurricanes will give the Gators a run for their money tonight.  Bet Miami Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bulls/Jazz OVER 243

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They play fast and they rank 25th in defensive rating allowing 118.3 points per 100 possessions.  They face an even more OVER team in the Bulls, who play at the 4th-fasted pace in the NBA this season.

Utah is 5-1 OVER in its six home games scoring 131.3 points per game and allowing 126.3 points per game, combining to average over 257 points per game at home this season.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for 233 or more points in all six home games, including 280 with the Pacers and 254 with the Hawks in their last two home games.

The Bulls are 7-4 OVER despite playing without Coby White all season and Josh Giddey for the last few games.  Well, Giddey is back tonight, and White could make his season debut.  The Bulls play at a break-neck pace and are much more efficient when Giddey is on the court running the offense.  

The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings finishing with 243 or more combined points in three of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Blazers/Mavs OVER 233.5

The Blazers are a dead nuts OVER team ranking 2nd in the NBA in pace.  The Mavericks have made a move to play faster ranking 5th in pace this season.  So this is a matchup between two Top 5 teams in pace, and there will be a ton of possessions as a result.

The Blazers are 9-3 OVER in their 12 games this season finishing with 238 or more combined points in five of their last six games overall.  The Mavericks are 3-0 OVER in their last three games finishing with 230 or more combined points in all three.  They are having to play more small ball this season with injuries to their big men.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Akron +20

This is a fade of Purdue in a horrific spot.  The Boilermakers are coming off a 87-80 upset road win at Alabama.  They have Memphis on deck.  That makes this a sandwich spot for them, and I don't expect them to put forth their best effort today.

This will be Akron's 'national championship' game with the opportunity to face a Power 4 team in-state.  And the Zips brought back three key players from last season who are leading the team this season.  Amari Lyles (16.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG), Shammah Scott (14.3 PPG, 4.3 APG) and Tavari Johnson (13.3 PPG, 4.7 APG) are three seniors and won't be phased by this road atmosphere.

Akron is 3-0 this season beating James Madison by 14 and Princeton by 35 at home.  That's the same Princeton team that only lost by 19 at Kansas as 22.5-point dogs last time out.  Purdue only beat Oakland by 10 in its last home game.  That's the same Oakland team that lost by 43 to Michigan and by 33 to Houston.  Bet Akron Sunday.

20* Chiefs/Broncos AFC West No-Brainer on Kansas City -3.5

I love the spot for the Kansas City Chiefs.  They are coming off their bye week and motivated to chase down the Broncos in the AFC West.  This is a must-win game for them, so I know we are going to get their best effort, and it should be good enough to cover this 3.5-point spread on the road.

Andy Reid is 22-4 SU off a bye.  The Chiefs are 11-1 SU against AFC West opponents with extended prep time under Mahomes.  Reid and Mahomes are 31-7 SU with extended prep time together since 2019.

The Chiefs are rolling right now with one of the best offenses of the Mahomes era now that he has all of his weapons healthy.  The Chiefs have averaged 29.2 points per game since getting Xavier Worthy back from injury.  Since then they've gotten back Rashee Rice from suspension, and he has been a walking touchdown.  And now LT Josh Simmons returns from a month absence due to personal reasons, so the Chiefs are fully healthy on offense with the exception or RB Isaiah Pacheco, who they can work around.

Year in and year out, the Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the NFL as long as Steve Spagnolo is calling the shots.  That is the case again this season as the Chiefs rank 4th in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game and 6th in total defense at 291.8 yards per game.  They are better than the Broncos on both sides of the football right now.

The Broncos are 8-2 this season despite trailing in all 10 games at some point.  They are one of the most fraudulent 8-2 teams in NFL history.  They have recent lucky, narrow wins over the Raiders by 3, the Texans by 3, the Giants by 1 and the Jets by 2 just in their last five games alone.  Those are some very bad teams, and they all had the Broncos on the ropes.  This is where their luck runs out.

The Broncos are a banged up, tired team playing for an 11th consecutive week to start the season.  They are without two key starters on defense in 2024 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain and leading tackler Alex Singleton (89 tackles), and both of Singleton's backups are on IR.  The Chiefs will throw all over this Denver defense not having to deal with Surtain.  Riley Moss is one of the most overrated, slowest corners in the NFL and will get burnt time and time again.

Bo Nix has been a major disappointment and has failed to make that Year 2 leap.  He put up just 10 points on the Raiders, 18 on the Texans and 13 on the Jets in recent weeks.  He is a liability for Sean Payton, one of the best play callers in the NFL who is just limited on what he can do with Nix, who averages just 6.1 yards per attempt.  And now the offense is banged up with RB JK Dobbins on IR.  Dobbins has been by far their most productive back with 772 rushing yards and 5.0 per carry.  It's a bigger loss for them than what is being factored into the line.  Bet the Chiefs Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Clippers/Celtics UNDER 221

This is a matchup between the two slowest-paced teams in the NBA.  The Celtics rank dead last (30th) in pace and the Clippers rank 29th.  This game will be played at a snail's pace today to say the least, and I like betting UNDERS in these early afternoon NBA games because teams aren't used to playing this early in the day.  It only happens on Sunday's, and teams tend to sleep walk through them.

The Clippers and Celtics have combined for 220 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last three meetings.  They have combined for 206, 220 and 211 points.  It will be more of the same here in their first meeting of the 2025-26 season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

25* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

The Chargers are one of the best, most underrated teams in the NFL.  I backed them last week as my 25* NBC SNF GOTY in their 25-10 win over the Steelers.  And I'm back on them this week for many of the same reasons.

Too much is being made of the offensive line injury to Joe Alt.  Not enough is being made of Justin Herbert being one of the best, most mobile QB's in the NFL and it just doesn't matter that much.  Especially since they traded for Trevor Penning from the Saints, and their backups in Pipkins and Hart are pretty good.  This is a loaded offense with playmakers in Gadsden, Allen, McConkey, Johnston and Vidal.  It's the best weapons Herbert has had with the Chargers.

This is also the best defense the Chargers have had in a long time.  They rank 8th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game and 4th in total defense at 280.2 yards per game.  They are as healthy as they have been all season defensively and may be completely back to full strength this week if S Molden and CB Still play, who are both listed as questionable.  They have recently gotten DE Hand, LB Perryman and LB Mack back from injuries, and you would be hard-pressed to find a better defense than this one in its current state.

The current state is impressive.  In their last three games, the Chargers held the Vikings to 10 points and 164 total yards, the Titans to 6 offensive points and 206 total yards, and the Steelers to 10 points and 221 total yards.  Now they will shut down this banged up Jaguars offense this week.

The Jaguars just blew a 19-point 4th quarter lead to Davis Mills and the Houston Texans last week.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice, and I question if they'll be able to get back up off the mat for this game.  The Jaguars only managed 213 total yards while allowing 412 total yards to the Texans, getting outgained by 200 yards.

Injuries are mounting up for the Jaguars.  They are without their two best playmakers at receiver in WR Brian Thomas Jr. and WR Travis Hunter.  They are also without RT Anton Harrison and CB Jourdan Lewis.  This is a bad Jaguars defense as it is ranking 20th in scoring defense at 24.4 points per game and 23rd in total defense at 344.6 yards per game.  What this defense has given up in recent weeks is alarming.  The Jaguars allowed 36 points to the Texans, 29 to the Raiders and 35 to the Rams in their last three games.  

I love the fact that the Chargers have a bye on deck next week, so they will be 'all in' trying to get this win to go into their bye week on a positive note and right on the heels of the Denver Broncos for the AFC West title.  They could find themselves tied atop the division with the Broncos with a win and a Denver loss to Kansas City this week.

Since 2019, teams who blew a 14-plus point lead in the 4th quarter of their previous game are 5-13 SU & 6-12 ATS in their next game.  It has happened four times since Week 6 alone and those teams are 0-4 SU.  Jim Harbaugh is 26-8 SU & 24-9-1 ATS when playing in the Eastern or Central time zone as a head coach, including 17-3 SU & 15-5 ATS in the East.  The Chargers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games following a primetime game.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

I love the spot for the Bengals this week.  They are off their bye week and have everything in front of them.  This is a must-win game if they want to make the playoffs with Joe Burrow likely to return later on in the season.  They only trail the Steelers by two games for 1st place in the AFC North and can cut that lead to one with a win here.  They would also hold the tiebreaker having swept the Steelers as well.

Cincinnati has been competitive since trading for Joe Flacco.  All four games were decided by single-digits, including the last three by 5 points or fewer.  Flacco has led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 yards in a 2-point win over the Steelers, 38 points and 398 yards in a 1-point loss to the Jets and 42 points and 495 yards in a 5-point loss to the Bears.  He won't mind getting another shot at this Pittsburgh defense that he just lit up recently.

This Pittsburgh defense is overrated.  The Steelers rank 28th in total defense allowing 376 yards per game.  Injuries have hit their defense hard as they will be without LGB Cole Holcomb, LB Alex Highsmith, CB Darius Slay, FS Elliott and CB Trice Jr. this week.  They have eight defenders on IR alone.  They are getting old, and teams know they just have to stop TJ Watt and they are doing so by chipping him at the highest rate in the NFL.  The Bengals will deploy the same strategy.

The Steelers also rank just 29th in total offense at 280.7 yards per game.  They are getting outgained by nearly 100 yards per game as a team.  That's why they are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL right now and I keep looking to face them because they aren't as good as their 5-4 record would suggest.  I successfully faded them with the Chargers in a 25-10 loss in Los Angeles in primetime last week.  And I'm fading them again this week as Flacco and company have the goods to keep up with the Steelers in another shootout that will likely be decided by 5 points or fewer for a 4th consecutive week.  Bet the Bengals Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bengals/Steelers OVER 49.5

The Bengals are a dead nuts OVER team.  Joe Flacco has revived the offense, but this is arguably the worst defense in the NFL in its current state.  The Bengals can't help but play in shootouts because they have to try and outscore their opponents.

The Bengals are 6-1-1 OVER in their last eight games finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  In their last three games with Flacco, they went for 64 combined points with the Steelers, 77 with the Jets and 89 with the Bears!  This total of 49.5 is very short for a game involving the Bengals right now.

Flacco has led the Bengals to 33 points and 470 yards against the Steelers, 38 points and 398 yards against the Jets and 42 points and 495 yards against the Bears.  He won't mind getting another shot at this Pittsburgh defense that he just lit up recently.

Aaron Rodgers won't mind facing this defense to get back on track, either.  The Bengals rank dead last (32nd) in scoring defense at 33.2 points per game, dead last in total defense at 426.6 yards per game and 30th at 6.5 yards per play.  They are without their best pass rusher in DE Trey Hendrickson and without one of their best run stuffers in 1st-round pick DE Shemar Stewart, who was just placed on IR.

This Pittsburgh defense is overrated.  The Steelers rank 28th in total defense allowing 376 yards per game.  Injuries have hit their defense hard as they will be without LGB Cole Holcomb, LB Alex Highsmith, CB Darius Slay, FS Elliott and CB Trice Jr. this week.  They have eight defenders on IR alone.  They are getting old, and teams know they just have to stop TJ Watt and they are doing so by chipping him at the highest rate in the NFL.  The Bengals will deploy the same strategy.

No question Rodgers is on his last leg, but he should find plenty of success here against the Bengals again.  The Steelers went for 31 points and 396 total yards against Cincinnati in that first meeting.  I just don't see any way this isn't a shootout with how poor and banged up both of these defenses are right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Packers/Giants OVER 43.5

Matt LaFleur has taken a ton of heat the last two weeks for poor offensive performance.  But his entire team and coaching staff have had his back, and I expect them to respond in a big way this week for LaFleur.  The offense in particular will shine for a number of reasons.

The biggest is the fact that the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  They have allowed an average of 32.3 points per game and 401.3 yards per game in their last four games during their current 4-game losing streak.  They are decimated with injuries defensively playing without SS Nubin, LB Thibodeau, DE Nunez-Roches and LB Golston right now.  Two other starters in CB Adebo and LB Okereke are questionable, and they have 5 other defenders on IR.

The Packers got good news on the injury front on offense as Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden are both likely back this week.  That will give Jordan Love his full compliment of weapons with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, who are both on IR.  Josh Jacobs should have a massive game on the ground against a Giants defense that is allowing 187 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  Their 5.5 yards per carry allowed is the worst mark in the NFL.

Jameis Winston is an 'Over' quarterback.  He will try to make throws that most quarterbacks won't, and he will push the ball down the field every chance he gets.  That will lead to some big plays on offense but also to some catastrophic plays and possible defensive touchdowns, or at the very least set the Packers up for easy scores.

This is a very low total for a game involving the Giants right now.  The Giantsand their opponents have combined for 44 or more points in five consecutive games, including 51 or more in four of them.  The Packers will do the heavy lifting here similar to their 35-25 win at Pittsburgh in their last road game that saw 60 combined points.  In their road game prior, they beat the Cardinals 27-23 for 50 combined points.  Their offense just seems to play better when on the highway this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay Packers -7

Note: I love a 6-Point Teaser on the Packers -1/Ravens -1.5 this week.

The Green Bay Packers will be highly motivated for a victory this week after suffering consecutive home losses to the Panthers by 3 and Eagles by 3.  Sometimes it does a team good to get away from the negative media at home and hit the road.  We last saw the Packers beating the Steelers 35-25 in their last road game.

Matt LaFleur has taken a ton of heat the last two weeks for poor offensive performance.  But his entire team and coaching staff have had his back, and I expect them to respond in a big way this week for LaFleur.  The offense in particular will shine for a number of reasons.

The biggest is the fact that the Giants have one of the worst defenses in the NFL in their current state.  They have allowed an average of 32.3 points per game and 401.3 yards per game in their last four games during their current 4-game losing streak.  They are decimated with injuries defensively playing without SS Nubin, LB Thibodeau, DE Nunez-Roches and LB Golston right now.  Two other starters in CB Adebo and LB Okereke are questionable, and they have 5 other defenders on IR.

The offense has been terrible without Jaxson Dart this season.  He is out with a concussion this week, and while Jameis Winston is a solid backup, he just doesn't have much to work witho.  Malik Nabers, Cam Skattebo and Beaux Collins are on IR, and the next-most productive receiver has been Darius Slayton, but he is out this week as well.  This is an embarrassing group of receivers he has to throw to, and there's going to be at least one or two Winston mistakes that cost their team.

The best unit on the field by far is this Green Bay defense.  The Packers rank 9th in scoring defense at 19.6 points per game, 5th in total defense at 287.2 yards per game and 2nd at 4.8 yards per play allowed.  Their starters are fully healthy and ready to dominate this week.

The Packers got good news on the injury front on offense as Romeo Doubs and Matthew Golden are both likely back this week.  That will give Jordan Love his full compliment of weapons with the exception of TE Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed, who are both on IR.  Josh Jacobs should have a massive game on the ground against a Giants defense that is allowing 187 rushing yards per game in their last four games.  The Packers should continue to pile on the points late in this game to make a statement for LaFleur.  Bet the Packers Sunday.

15* Notre Dame/Ohio State FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Notre Dame +10.5

Notre Dame is one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  The Fighting Irish brought back three starters this season including their two best players in Burton (21.3 PPG LY) and Shrewsberry (14.0 PPG LY).

The Fighting Irish are off to a 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS start this season with three blowout wins all by 20 points or more.  Burton is averaging 19.3 points per game while Shrewsberry is averaging 13.0 points per game thus far.  I look for them to give Ohio State a run for its money today.

I haven't been impressed with the Buckeyes during their 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS start against a very soft schedule.  They only beat a bad IU Indy team by 16 at home, barely covered by 2 against IPFW.  They also failed to cover against App State.  The Buckeyes went 17-15 last season.  Bet Notre Dame Sunday.

20* Commanders/Dolphins NFL Spain Early ANNIHILATOR on Miami ML -125

The Dolphins are much healthier than the Commanders this week which is the biggest reason I am on them.  I also like what I've seen from the Dolphins in recent weeks playing hard for head coach Mike McDaniel.  The Commanders are a complete dumpster fire right now and it's only going to get worse before it gets better due to all their injuries.

The Dolphins are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat the Falcons 34-10 on the road while holding the Falcons to just 213 total yards.  They did lose 28-6 to the Ravens at home, but that was a misleading final as they were -3 in turnovers and just struggled once they got deep in Baltimore territory.  They were only outgained by 6 yards by the Ravens and held them to 338 yards.  Last week, they dominated the Bills from the jump in a 30-13 win as 8-point home underdogs.

With their next three games against the Commanders, Saints and Jets, the Dolphins have a great opportunity to make a late-season surge and a run at the playoffs.  They will remain focused this week with this being a standalone game in Spain, and I fully expect them to handle their business.

The Commanders have been in a downward spiral since fumbling late in a 25-24 home loss to the Bears.  Jayden Daniels got hurt in his next game, a 44-22 road loss to the Cowboys.  Marcus Mariota has been no match for anyone.  The Commanders lost 28-7 at Kansas City in their next game.  Daniels returned in a 38-14 blowout home loss to the Seahawks, but they left him in the game late in the 4th quarter and he suffered another injury.

Last week, the decimated Commanders lost 44-22 at home to the Lions.  They came away from that game even more banged up.  Offensively, they are without QB Daniels, WR McClaurin, WR Burks, WR Brown and WR McCaffrey.  Mariota just doesn't have a chance with his lack of playmakers.

The Commanders came into the season with the oldest defense in the NFL and it's showing.  They are without DE Armstrong, DE Jean-Baptiste, DE Wise Jr., DE Jackson, CB Amos, FS Harris and CB Lattimore right now.  Then DT Payne got suspended for this game for throwing a punch at St. Brown of the Lions last week.  What a mess.

Washington ranks 29th in scoring defense at 28.0 points per game, 30th in total defense at 394.6 yards pre game and 31st at 6.6 yards per play.  Those numbers have skyrocketed in recent weeks due to these injuries.  They are allowing 38.5 points per game and 451.3 yards per game in their last four games.  Tua and the Dolphins will continue to light up this defense this week, and I trust the Dolphins to be able to handle Mariota and his lack of playmakers.  

Mariota is 0-7 SU in his last seven starts when listed as an underdog.  The Commanders are the first team to lose four straight games by 21 or more points in 23 years.  Oddsmakers haven't caught up to just how bad this team is right now.  We'll take advantage.  Bet the Dolphins on the Money Line Sunday.

15* Lakers/Bucks NBA TV ANNIHILATOR UNDER 230.5

Both the Lakers and Bucks played in the NBA Cup last night and both will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back.  That means both are likely to rest their stars tonight.  Don't be surprised if Giannis sits for the Bucks, while Doncic and/or Reaves sit for the Lakers.

Giannis will almost certainly sit after beating the Hornets in OT last night and playing 40 minutes.  Doncic played 40 minutes and Reaves 39 for the Lakers last night.  These offenses are going to struggle without these guys if they do sit, and I don't hate the UNDER if they don't because they will be on tired legs and the shooting will be affected.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves UNDER 235

The Nuggets will be without Christian Braun (11.4 PPG) and Cam Johnson (7.2 PPG) tonight.  They also could be without Nikola Jokic (28.8 PPG, 10.9 APG), who is questionable with a wrist injury.  Their offense will be hampered without Braun and Johnson, and it will be non-existent if Jokic sits.

The Timberwolves are coming off a 124-110 win over the Kings last night in the NBA Cup.  They could elect to wrest Anthony Edwards and possibly more guys after all five starters played at least 30 minutes last night.  Either way, I like the UNDER in this matchup.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Texas/Georgia ABC No-Brainer on Texas +6

I love the spot for Texas this week.  The Longhorns are playing with double-revenge after losing twice to Georgia last season, once in the regular season and once in the SEC Championship Game.  The Longhorns are off a bye week, so they have had two full weeks to prepare for Georgia, which will be playing for a 3rd consecutive week.

Texas was a 4-point favorite at home last year when they were upset 30-15 by Georgia.  That was a misleading final as they were only outgained by 24 yards.  Even more misleading was their 22-19 (OT) loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as 3-point favorites.  The Longhorns outgained the Bulldogs by 112 yards and should have won.  Now the Longhorns go from being favored in both meetings last season to a 6-point underdog in the rematch this season.  There's clearly some line value here from that fact alone.

Georgia has been very fortunate to be 8-1 this season.  In fact, the Bulldogs have spent more time trailing (over 201 minutes) during a 9-0 or 8-1 start for any FBS team since UCLA way back in 2005.  The Bulldogs have narrow wins over Florida by 4, Ole Miss by 8, Auburn by 10 only after punching in a TD in the final seconds, and Tennessee by 3.

Arch Manning was banged up early in the season, but he has gotten healthier and is coming off his two best games of the season.  He threw for 346 yards and 3 TD against Misssissippi State and 328 yards and 3 TD against Vanderbilt.  He'll be even healthier and more prepared to beat Georgia off a bye week.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Texas Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Toronto Raptors -6.5

The Indiana Pacers are a dumpster fire.  They are 1-11 this season and coming off five straight troubling losses with no help in sight.  They were upset at home by the Nets as 6.5-point favorites, they lost by 17 in Denver as 9-point dogs, lost by 31 in Golden State as 13-point dogs, lost by 24 at Utah while giving up 152 points to the Jazz, and last time out lost by 35 at Phoenix.

To add insult to injury the Pacers just lost Aaron Nesmith (15.5 PPG) to a long-term knee injury in that loss to the Suns.  They were already without Benndict Mathurin (31.0 PPG), Obi Toppin (14.0 PPG), Tyrese Haliburton, Kam Jones, Quenton Jackson (11.8 PPG) and Johnny Furphy.  There's just no help in sight for this team.

The Raptors are rolling right now going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with upset road wins over Cleveland by 13, Cleveland by 11 and Atlanta by 12 during this stretch.  They also blew out the Bucks by 28 and the Grizzlies by 13 at home.  They will make easy work of the short-handed Pacers tonight.  Bet the Raptors Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on New Mexico State/Tennessee OVER 61.5

Tennessee is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

Tennessee is 7-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 57 or more combined points in all nine games including 65 or more in seven of them.  It should have been 64 or more in all eight of nine games but they ran out of time at the goal line against Alabama three games ago in a game that landed on 57.  This total of 61.5 is very low for a game involving the Vols.  They went for 85 combined points with Georgia, 75 with Miss State, 71 with Syracuse, 65 with Arkansas, 57 with Alabama and 90 with Kentucky.

The Vols rank 3rd in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 504.1 yards per game and they average 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,737 yards with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

This Tennessee defense is a problem, though.  The Volunteers have been without their two best cornerbacks for most of the season and opponents have taken advantage of them through the air.  They allowed 44 points and 304 passing yards to Georgia, 371 passing yards to UAB, 34 points to Miss State, 31 points and 496 total yards to Arkansas, 37 points to Alabama, 34 points and 476 total yards to Kentucky and 33 points to a previously dead Oklahoma offense.

Tennessee is going to come close to covering this total on its own against a New Mexico State defense that hasn't seen an offense in the same stratosphere talent-wise to Tennessee.  And this New Mexico State defense has been torched for 301 passing yards by WKU, 283 by Missouri State and 344 by New Mexico.

UAB managed to score 24 points behind 371 passing yards on this Tennessee defense.  New Mexico State is a pass-happy team that cannot run the ball and should find some success through the air as well to contribute to this total.  The Aggies rank 65th in passing offense at 234 yards per game.  QB Logan Fife has been solid with 2,066 passing yards and 11 TD.  The Aggies also like to play fast ranking 39th in tempo this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tennessee -39.5

The Volunteers rank 4th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.7 seconds.  What is impressive about that is they have been involved in several blowouts in their favor, so they continue to run fast-paced offense no matter the game script.  We saw that when they were trying to tack on a TD late to cover the spread against UAB when they could have taken knees.

The Vols rank 3rd in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 1st in total offense at 504.1 yards per game and they average 6.8 yards per play.  Joey Aguilar was been a great transfer QB from Appalachian State, completing 65.7% of his passes for 2,737 yards with a 21-to-8 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for two scores.

New Mexico State has played the 141st-ranked schedule in the country.  The Aggies still have terrible defensive numbers despite playing a very weak schedule of opposing offenses.  And this New Mexico State defense has been torched for 301 passing yards by WKU, 283 by Missouri State and 344 by New Mexico.  You can just imagine what this Tennessee offense is going to do to them.

Tennessee is off a bye week with an outside chance of making the 12-team playoff as their will likely be at least one or two SEC teams getting in with 3 losses.  That means they need style points, and we know Josh Heupel is the king of running up the score late into the 4th quarter.  He just doesn't take his foot off the gas, as we've seen in his time here at Tennessee in these late-season non-conference games.

In 2024, Tennessee beat UTEP 56-0 as a 41-point favorite.  In 2023, Tennessee beat UConn 59-3 as a 35-point favorite.  In 2022, Tennessee beat UT-Martin 65-24 as a 38-point favorite.  And in 2021, Tennessee beat South Alabama 60-14 as a 28-point favorite.  So the Volunteers are 4-0 ATS in these late-season non-conference games under Heupel winning all four by 42 points or more.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/Tulane OVER 63

Florida Atlantic is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 1st in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.1 seconds.  The Owls are a pass-happy offense behind QB Caden Veltkamp, who is completing 66% of his passes for 2,600 yards and 20 TD on the season.  They also have one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 130th in scoring at 34.6 points per game and 105th in total defense at 412.3 yards per game allowed.

Tulane is coming off two high-scoring games in a 48-26 loss to UTSA for 74 combined points and a 38-32 win over Memphis for 70 combined points.  They allowed 391 passing yards to UTSA and 368 to Memphis, so you can bet Veltkamp is going to have a big day through the air to keep up with Tulane in a shootout.  Tulane is going to get whatever it wants offensively this week.  

The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on East Carolina -2.5

East Carolina is very much alive in the AAC Championship race among five different teams that have just one conference loss.  Memphis is not one of those teams.  Memphis was upset by UAB a few weeks ago and then upset by Tulane last week to pretty much get eliminated from playoff contention.  I question how the Tigers will get back up off the mat now with that realization.

East Carolina is hitting its stride with three straight blowout wins over Tulsa by 14, Temple by 31 and Charlotte by 26.  The Pirates just had a bye last week and have actually had two byes in the last four weeks, so they are as fresh and prepared as they can be for this game against Memphis.  The Tigers are running on fumes playing for a 5th consecutive week with three hard-fought one score games against UAB, USF and Tulane in there.  The spot really favors the Pirates at home here.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on USC -6.5

USC is a wagon at home and a terrible bet on the road, especially when traveling East.  The Trojans are 19-5 SU 14-10 ATS at home under Lincoln Riley, including 13-8 ATS as a home favorite.  The Trojans have two losses this season and will need an at-large berth if they want to make the 12-team playoff.  They need to win out and do it with style, so don't be surprised to see Riley keep pouring it on tonight to go for those much-needed style points hosting Iowa Saturday.

The Trojans are scoring 49.2 points per game, averaging 569 yards per game and 8.9 yards per play at home this season.  They are allowing just 18.8 points per game, 305.8 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play at home.  They are outscoring opponents by 31 points per game and outgaining them by 263 yards per game and 3.8 yards per play at home.

USC crushed Michigan 31-13 while outgaining the Wolverines by 173 yards at home earlier this season.  They crushed Northwestern 38-17 while outgaining the Wildcats by 202 yards last week at home.  Michigan and Northwestern are similar teams to Iowa, and I think the same fate will happen for the Hawkeyes this week as they just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Trojans, who are going to put up a big number.

Iowa had an outside shot of making the 12-team playoff had it beaten Oregon last week.  Well, the Hawkeyes fell short in heartbreaking fashion 18-16 at home.  That's an Oregon team that was down its top three receivers and still outgained Iowa by 134 yards.  The Ducks did so in punishing fashion rushing for 261 yards on 36 carries on the Hawkeyes.  It was the type of loss that can beat a team twice as Iowa's hopes and dreams of making the playoff or winning the Big Ten are now gone.

Now Iowa has to try and get back up off the mat to face a more potent, healthier USC offense that has shown it can run the football as well rushing for 224 yards on Michigan, 202 on Nebraska and 173 on Northwestern.  I question how much they'll have left in the tank, and these Big Ten teams traveling out to the West Coast have fared terribly all season.  Iowa is in over its head here.  Bet USC Saturday.

20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Texas State/Southern Miss OVER 65

Texas State is a dead nuts OVER team going 4-0 OVER in its last four games overall finishing with 72 or more combined points in all four games.  This total of 65 is actually pretty short for a game involving Texas State right now.

The Bobcats rank 10th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.1 seconds.  They are 26th in scoring offense at 34.7 points per game and 11th in total offense at 477.2 yards per game.  The problem is they don't play defense, which is why they have lost five straight despite scoring at least 30 points in four of the five.  They rank 129th in scoring defense at 34.8 points per game.

Southern Miss ranks 20th in tempo snapping the ball every 23.8 seconds.  So these are two Top 20 teams in tempo, and there will be a ton of possessions and more opportunities for points as a result.  This Southern Miss offense has been lighting up opposing defenses for 32.3 points per game this season.  The Eagles have scored at least 38 points in five of their last eight games and I expect them to reach or exceed that mark to pave the way in us cashing this OVER 65 ticket.

Texas State had two starters on defense suspended after a brawl at the end of their 42-39 loss to Louisiana last week.  That will make an already putrid Bobcats defense that much worse.  The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no rain expected.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on NC State +15

I love the spot for NC State this week.  The Wolfpack are coming off a bye and have actually had two byes in the last four weeks.  They couldn't be fresher than they are right now, and they should be prepared to give Miami a run for its money this week.

We saw what the Wolfpack were capable of last time out upsetting Georgia Tech 48-36 as 5.5-point home dogs to hand the Yellow Jackets their first loss of the season.  They will be motivated for a 6th win to get bowl eligible, and they would love nothing more than to wreck Miami's season.

This NC State offense has the goods to keep up with Miami in a shootout.  The Wolfpack rank 45th in scoring at 32.4 points per game, 28th in total offense at 438.6 yards per game and 21st at 6.7 yards per play.  CJ Bailey is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, completing 70.7% of his passes with a 19-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores and averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  Miami hasn't seen many offenses this good.

The Hurricanes have been playing with their food recently.  They suffered upset losses to Louisville at home and SMU on the road in two of their last four games.  In their other two games, they needed big 2H's to pull away from both Stanford and Syracuse, two of the worst teams in the ACC.  They only led Syracuse 14-3 in the 3rd quarter and they were tied 7-7 with Stanford at halftime in their last two home games.

While NC State is off a bye week, Miami will be playing for a 5th consecutive week and I question how much they have left in the tank.  The Hurricanes are good, but they should not be favored by more than two touchdowns against this rested, underrated NC State team today.  Bet NC State Saturday.

15* ACC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on NC State/Miami OVER 55.5

NC State is a dead nuts OVER team with an explosive offense and a terrible defense.  The Wolfpack are 6-2 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 58 or more combined points in six of those eight games, including 66 or more in five of them.  This total of 55.5 is very short for a game involving the Wolfpack.

This NC State offense has the goods to keep up with Miami in a shootout.  The Wolfpack rank 45th in scoring at 32.4 points per game, 28th in total offense at 438.6 yards per game and 21st at 6.7 yards per play.  CJ Bailey is one of the more underrated QB's in the country, completing 70.7% of his passes with a 19-to-7 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 4 scores and averaging 8.4 yards per pass attempt.  Miami hasn't seen many offenses this good.

NC State's defense ranks 110th in the country in scoring allowing 30.6 points per game, 120th in total defense at 424.8 yards per game and 118th at 6.8 yards per play.  I expect this Miami offense to have one of its best games of the season.  The Hurricanes also will be going for style points to try and make the 12-team playoff so don't be surprised if they continue scoring late into the 4th quarter, which they have done against both Syracuse and Stanford recently.  But I expect NC State to hang and for this to be a back and forth shootout.  The forecast looks great for one with temps in the 70's, single-digit winds and no precipitation.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on App State/James Madison OVER 53.5

James Madison needs style points to make the 12-team playoff.  The Dukes are 8-1 this season with their only loss on the road to Louisville, so they are very much alive for the 12-team playoff.  And we've seen them tack on extra scores late in going 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.

They beat Old Dominion 63-27 for 90 combined points, beat Texas State 52-20 for 72 combined points and beat Marshall 35-23 for 58 combined points.  This total of 53.5 is pretty low for a game involving James Madison right now that is looking to get margin with each win.

Appalachian State is a good OVER partner.  The Mountaineers rank 9th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 23.0 seconds.  They also have one of the worst defenses in the country, and that has been on display in recent weeks allowing 31.7 points per game in their last seven games.

Their offense has been solid ranking 50th in total offense at 414.6 yards per game.  They really are a pass-happy attack ranking 19th at 288.2 yards per game.  That means more clock stoppages on incompletions when they have the ball.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Michigan State +7.5

Penn State is coming off three straight gut-wrenching losses.  I question if they can get back up off of the mat with an interim head coach in time to face a rested Michigan State team that is coming off its bye week.

After losing 25-24 at Iowa in their first game without James Franklin, the Nittany Lions were competitive with Ohio State for a half before falling 38-14.  Then they had Indiana on the ropes last week before giving up a last-second touchdown in a deflating 27-24 loss.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

Michigan State is 3-6 this season and still has bowl eligibility in its sights.  I think the Spartans will regroup and be motivated for their first Big Ten victory of the season.  They have been hard-luck losers in narrow losses to Minnesota, Michigan and Nebraska.  They actually outgained Minnesota 467 to 301, or by 166 total yards last time out and lost by 3.  They are one of the most underrated teams in the country due to their poor record despite having decent stats.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* MWC PLAY OF THE DAY on New Mexico -14

Colorado has quit on the season and just wants it to be over at this point.  The Rams are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall with all five losses coming by double-digits, including four losses by 17 points or more.  They lost 28-0 at Wyoming two games ago, then returned from their bye week and got stomped 42-10 at home by UNLV last week.

It won't go any better for them against a New Mexico team that is coming off its bye week and motivated to win a MWC Championship.  The Lobos are only one game out of first place and the two teams atop the MWC in Boise and San Diego State play each other this week.  The Lobos won't be taking the Rams lightly.

New Mexico went into the bye off two impressive wins over Utah State 33-14 at home and UNLV 40-35 on the road as 4.5-point dogs.  That's the same UNLV team that just smoked Colorado State 42-10 last week for a recent common opponent.  The Rams will offer no resistance here.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Marquette -7

Maryland is a rebuilding team with first-year head coach Buzz Williams.  The Terrapins will be without three key players in G Myles Rice, F Solomon Washington and G George Turkson Jr.  It has been an unimpressive start for the Terrapins to say the least.

They are 0-3 ATS beating Coppin State by 22 as 28.5-point favorites, losing outright at home to Georgetown by 10 as 5-point favorites, and only beating Alcorn State by 20 as 29.5-point favorites.

Marquette's lone loss came to Indiana, and that's an Indiana team that is one of the best in the country.  They beat Albany by 27 as 24-point favorites, Southern by 18 s 24.5-point favorites and Arkansas-Little Rock by 40 as 21.5-point favorites.  The Eagles will make easy work of the Terrapins at home today.  Bet Marquette Saturday.

15* Butler/SMU CW ANNIHILATOR on OVER 163

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Saturday when Butler visits SMU.  Butler ranks 64th in adjusted tempo and 8th in average length of offensive possession getting a shot up every 13.7 seconds.  SMU ranks 94th in adjusted tempo and 17th in average length of offensive possession getting a shot up every 14.2 seconds.  There will be a ton of possessions in this game.

SMU is coming off a 102-91 win over Murray State for 193 combined points.  The Mustangs also topped this total in a 96-76 win over Tarleton State for 172 combined points.  Butler scored 88 points on Southern Indiana, 112 on IU Indy and 98 on Chicago State.  They finished with 192 combined points with IU Indy and 164 with Chicago State.  Their defense is not good, and it will get exposed by this high-octane SMU offense loaded with firepower.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on UMKC/Texas OVER 156

UMKC went from one of the slowest teams in the country to one of the fastest this season.  That big change in philosophy has their totals listed too low here early in the season.

UMKC lost 101-78 at Southern Illinois for 179 combined points with a 141.5-point total.  UMKC lost 105-91 at home to Iona for 196 combined points with a 156-point total.  Both totals went over by basically 40 points, and this one won't be close either.

Texas will score 100 points here just like Southern Illinois and Iona did.  The Longhorns nearly got to 100 in their last two games scoring 97 against Lafayette and 93 against Fairleigh Dickinson.  They want to play fast too and will welcome it from UMKC at home today.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Arkansas/LSU OVER 56

Arkansas is a dead nuts OVER team going 7-2 OVER in its nine games this season.  The Razorbacks and their opponents have combined for at least 57 points in all nine games.  This total of 56 is very low for a game involving the Razorbacks.

They hung 35 points on Mississippi state, 42 on Texas A&M and 35 on Ole Miss in SEC play to prove they can score even against good SEC defenses.  They will score against this banged up, overrated LSU defense that just allowed 49 points at home to Texas A&M in their last home game.

I like the fact that LSU is going to Michael Van Buren at QB.  He is more of a dual-threat who played well at Mississippi State in place of an injured Blake Shapen last year before transferring to LSU.  Garrett Nussmeier has been banged up and ineffective, and Van Buren's dual-threat ability will open up things for this LSU offense moving forward.

Of course, it helps that LSU is taking a big step down in class of opposing defenses here after having to face the gauntlet of Alabama, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Ole Miss in their last five games.  Not to mention they also played Florida and Clemson early in the season, so their offensive numbers have been tamed.  They will have success against an Arkansas defense that ranks 124th in scoring at 33.3 points per game, 122nd in total defense at 430.6 yards per game and 123rd at 6.2 yards per play.  This has the makings of a back and forth shootout in Baton Rouge with temps in the 70's, no wind and no precipitation in the forecast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Arkansas/LSU SEC ANNIHILATOR on Arkansas +6

I love the spot for the Arkansas Razorbacks.  They needed a bye week and got it last week after a brutal SEC schedule where they kept coming up short.  Now they've had two weeks to regroup and prepare to beat LSU for their first SEC victory.  I fully expect them to pull off the upset this week.

Arkansas keeps showing up week after week for interim head coach Bobby Petrino despite tough loss after tough loss.  In fact, this might be the best 2-7 team I've ever seen.  Six of the seven losses came by single-digits with the lone exception being a loss to Notre Dame.  They lost by 3 to Mississippi State, by 9 to Auburn, by 3 to Texas A&M, by 3 to Tennessee, by 1 to Memphis and by 6 to Ole Miss.  They easily could have won all six of those games, so they are grossly undervalued right now due to their record.

I also think it's a terrible spot for LSU.  They had their 'all in' game last week against rival Alabama with their interim head coach.  They played hard for him in their first game since firing Brian Kelly, but now I question how motivated they'll be to face Arkansas a week later.  It's an LSU program in turmoil and players already have one foot out the door.  They will also be switching to backup QB Michael Van Buren to try and spark the offense.

I don't think Van Buren and company have the firepower to keep up with Arkansas QB Talen Green.  The Razorbacks are loaded on offense, ranking 8th in total offense at 484.4 yards per game and 4th at 7.3 yards per play.  They put up 42 points on Texas A&M and 35 on Ole Miss, and those numbers are made even more impressive considering the tough schedule of opposing defenses faced this season.  Green is motivated to improve his NFL draft stock and will show out against this banged up, tired LSU defense.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ABC No-Brainer on Pittsburgh +10.5

This line has gone up since I released Pitt +10.5 on Sunday.  It has gone up because of Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi's comments about not caring if he lost this game by 100 because winning the ACC is what matters most.  While he is correct, I think it's a smoke screen.  The Panthers would love nothing more than to win this game and knock Notre Dame out of the 12-team playoff.  I think they have the goods to compete, too.

Pitt is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since switching to freshman QB Mason Heintschel, who is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,550 yards with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He led them to blowout home wins over NC State 53-34 and Boston College 48-7, as well as well as blowout road wins over Stanford 35-20, Syracuse 30-13 and an upset win at Florida State, 34-31.

The offense is averaging 40 points per game with Heintschel at QB, and the defense has been great all season under Narduzzi.  The Panthers rank 24th in the country in total defense at 318.1 yards per game and 16th at 4.7 yards per play allow.  But what particularly stands out for this matchup is Pitt's run defense, which ranks 3rd in the country allowing just 80.7 rushing yards per game and 1st at 2.4 yards per carry.

Notre Dame needs to be able to run the football to be effective, and this will be its toughest test of the season against this top-ranked Pitt Run D.  That at least gives the Panthers a chance to hang in this game, forcing freshman QB CJ Carr to try and beat them through the air.  Pitt is a blitz-happy defense that will give Carr some problems.

Notre Dame is overvalued off a 49-10 home win over Navy, which was playing without starting QB Blake Horvath and had not chance of keeping it competitive without him.  The Fighting Irish only beat Boston College 25-10 as 31-point favorites in their last road game.  That's a BC team that is 1-9 this season with six consecutive losses by 14 points or more.  If BC can hang, Pitt can surely hang as well.  The Panthers are coming off their bye week so they will be fresh and ready to go with two full weeks to prepare to beat Notre Dame.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Pitt ABC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 55

Pitt is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS since switching to freshman QB Mason Heintschel, who is completing 64.1% of his passes for 1,550 yards with a 12-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.4 per attempt.  He led them to blowout home wins over NC State 53-34 and Boston College 48-7, as well as well as blowout road wins over Stanford 35-20, Syracuse 30-13 and an upset win at Florida State, 34-31.

The offense is averaging 40 points per game with Heintschel at QB.  The Panthers really profile as a dead nuts OVER team ranking 25th in the country in tempo which is key to their offense finding its rhythm and keeping opposing defenses off balance.  This is a low total for a game involving the Panthers as they have gone for 55 or more combined points in eight of their nine games this season with the only exception being against Syracuse and its backup QB.

Notre Dame also profiles as an OVER team going 5-4 OVER in all games this season finishing with 58 or more combined points in five of its last eight games.  The Fighting Irish won't have as much success running the ball against this stout Pitt run D, so they will have to throw more than usual with CJ Carr.  He is handling it well completing 67.6% of his passes for 2,275 yards with a 19-to-4 TD/INT ratio while averaging 10.1 per attempt.  Pitt is a blitz-happy defense, which allows for explosive plays over the top.  I think this will be a back-and-forth shootout.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* AAC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on UTSA/Charlotte OVER 59.5

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in this matchup between UTSA and Charlotte Saturday afternoon.  UTSA is 7-2 OVER in all games this season finishing with 66 or more combined points in seven of those nine games.  Charlotte is 6-1 OVER in its last seven games overall finishing with 63 or more combined points in five of those seven games.

Charlotte has allowed 48 points or more in four of its last five games with one of the worst defenses in the country.  The 49ers rank 134th out of 136 teams in scoring defense at 38.4 points pre game and 135th in total defense at 470 yards per game.

UTSA's defense has allowed 55 points in two of its last three games to North Texas and South Florida.  The Miners are way down defensively this season, but they have a very good offense that recently hung 61 points on Rice and 48 points and 523 yards on Tulane.  The Miners will hang a big number on this Charlotte defense Saturday, and as we've seen Charlotte's offense keeps coming late in games no matter the score.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. 

20* USF/Navy ESPN 2 No-Brainer on OVER 64.5

South Florida is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Bulls are 6-1 OVER in their last seven games overall finishing with 61 or more combined points in all seven games, and 65 or more in five of their last six.  The Bulls rank 2nd in the entire country in tempo snapping the ball every 21.2 seconds.

The Bulls are relentless on offense.  They are averaging 50.2 points per game, 554 yards per game and 7.1 yards per play in conference games.  They have incentive to run up the score as they are trying to not only win the AAC, but do it with style points so they can make the 12-team playoff.  We saw just that when they beat Charlotte 54-26, North Texas 63-36 and UTSA 55-23 in recent weeks.

Navy is 7-2 OVER in all games this season with an elite offense and suspect defense.  Starting QB Blake Horvath sat out the Notre Dame game last week so he'd be more healthy for this game against South Florida, which is for 1st place in the AAC with not only conference championship implications, but also 12-team playoff implications.

Horvath means everything to this Navy offense.  He is completing 64.2% of his passes for 1,143 yards and 7 TD while also rushing for 926 yards and 13 TD.  He is going to go down as one of the best QB's in Navy history, and I think he has the goods to try and match USF score for score.

This Navy defense is a problem.  They just allowed 49 points and 502 total yards to Notre Dame last week.  They are a tired defense playing for a 4th consecutive week after also having to face up-tempo offenses in North Texas an FAU the last two weeks.  I think Notre Dame softened them up with their physical style last week, and USF is going to be able to score at will on them.  With USF playing from in front and keeping the foot on the gas, Navy will have no choice but to play faster on offense to try and keep up.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Arizona/Cincinnati OVER 56

The Bearcats are a wagon offensively ranking 5th in the country averaging 7.3 yards per play.  They also like to play fast ranking 32nd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.6 seconds.  They have great balance led by a rushing attack that ranks 25th at 196.6 yards per game and 3rd at 6.0 yards per carry.

That's where I think Arizona will have problems in this game is stopping Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby, one of the best dual-threat QB's in the country.  Sorsby has thrown for 2,050 yards with a 20-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 453 yards and 8 scores.

The Wildcats have been very leaky against the run lately allowing 258 rushing yards to BYU, 232 to Houston and 170 to Kansas.  Houston QB Connor Weigman rushed for 98 yards and a TD on them, BYU QB Bear Bachmeier rushed for 89 yards and 2 TD, and Kansas QB Jaylon Daniels rushed for 74 yards and a TD on them.  The Wildcats clearly have a problem defending dual-threat QB's, and Sorsby is better than all three of those guys.

Arizona also likes to play fast ranking 34th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.8 seconds.  The Wildcats are 3-1 OVER in their last four games combining for 69 points with Colorado, 59 with Houston and 60 with BYU.  They rank 33rd in scoring at 33.0 points per game.  They have nice balance too, but are more pass-happy with QB Noah Fifita, who has thrown for 2,200 yards and 23 touchdowns while also rushing for three scores.

Cincinnati went for 59 combined points with Utah, 61 with Baylor and 66 with Oklahoma State in its last three games.  This total of 56 is pretty low for a game involving two great Big 12 offenses that both like to play fast.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* Arizona/UCLA CBB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona -2.5

This is a play against UCLA.  The Bruins are one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Their results are shocking to this point.  They only beat Eastern Washington by 6 as 30-point home favorites, Pepperdine by 11 as 29.5-point home favorites and West Georgia by 21 as 30.5-point home favorites.  They have failed the cover the spread by a combined 52 points in their first three games.

Arizona beat defending national champ Florida 93-87 in its opener to prove it will be a contender this season.  The Wildcats followed it up with blowout wins of Utah Tech by 26 and Northern Arizona by 35.  They will make easy work of this overmatched UCLA team tonight.  Bet Arizona Friday.

20* Warriors/Spurs NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on San Antonio -2

San Antonio is a young team that cares about winning the NBA Cup.  Golden State is a veteran team that's more focused on a championship and won't get up for these NBA Cup games like the Spurs will.  Adding to San Antonio's motivation is a 125-120 home loss to the Warriors on Wednesday, and they feel like this would be the ultimate revenge to beat the Warriors in the NBA Cup.

The Warriors needed a huge 2H comeback to beat the Spurs.  They also hit 21 3-pointers and went 32-of-36 from the FT line, while the Spurs went just 14-of-16 from the FT line.  I suspect the Warriors won't get the benefit of the whistle like they did in that meeting Wednesday, and the FT disparity won't be nearly as high.

The Spurs are 5-1 SU at home this season, so that was their lone home loss adding to their motivation for revenge.  The Warriors are 1-6 SU & 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet the Spurs Friday.

15* NBA Friday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Spurs OVER 235

The Spurs are now a dead nuts OVER team since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury to run the PG position.  He made his return three games ago in a 126-119 win over the Pelicans for 245 combined points.  That was a Pelicans team missing two of its best players in Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, too.  The Spurs then beat the Bulls 121-117 for 238 combined points two games ago.  

Last time out, the Spurs lost to the Warriors 125-120 for 245 combined points.  The Spurs are 6-0 OVER in their last six games overall going for 231 or more combined points in all six games.  The Spurs will play a lot faster with Fox moving forward.  Nobody in the NBA gets from one rim to the other faster than Fox.  He will get the Spurs in their offense faster, and they will play with much more pace.

The Warriors are an OVER team as long as Steph Curry is healthy.  He is healthy now, and he had 46 points going 5-of-16 from 3-point range in that 125-120 win over the Spurs on Wednesday.  The Warriors shot 57 3-pointers, and it should be more of the same here with a lot of fast break opportunities for Fox and the Spurs on the misses.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Minnesota/Oregon FOX No-Brainer on UNDER 44.5

Oregon is coming off a pair of low-scoring, rain games against two similar opponents to Minnesota.  The Ducks won 21-7 at home against Wisconsin for 28 combined points, and 18-16 at Iowa for 34 combined points.  There is a good chance of rain for this game at home against Minnesota tonight, and either way I think this game stays UNDER the 44.5-point total.

Oregon has some key injuries at receiver that are limiting their offense which is the biggest reason they only managed 21 points on Wisconsin and 18 on Iowa.  The Ducks have only averaged 20 pass attempts in those two games and they will keep it on the ground here after averaging 40.5 rush attempts in those two games.

The Ducks also have no motivation to run up the score and keep scoring late into the 4th quarter.  We've seen them call off the dogs several times already this season.  They know they just have to survive and advance as winning out would get them into the 12-team playoff.  They also have USC on deck next week so they don't want to show too much here.

Minnesota is a dead nuts UNDER team with a terrible offense and solid defense.  Iowa and Ohio State both held Minnesota to just 3 points this season, and I would be surprised if Minnesota reached 10 points in this game.  The Golden Gophers rank 121st in total offense at 313.1 yards per game and 124th in rushing at 109.8 yards per game.  They will be up against an Oregon defense that ranks 3rd in the country at 239.3 yards per game, 3rd at 4.0 yards per play and 28th at 113.2 rushing yards per game.

Minnesota can at least keep Oregon somewhat in check with a defense that ranks 20th in the country at 311.6 yards per game and 21st at 108.1 rushing yards per game.  The Golden Gophers and their opponents have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven of their nine games this season, including 44 or fewer in five of them.  This feels like something in the neighborhood of a 28-7 final.

Neither of these teams are in a hurry offensively.  Minnesota ranks 118th in tempo snapping the ball every 28.4 seconds, while Oregon ranks 101st at 27.7 seconds in between snaps.  This game will slow down to a crawl in the 4th quarter with Oregon blowing out Minnesota and both teams just looking to get out of there.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -15

Georgia is a wagon this season.  The Bulldogs are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS beating Bellarmine 104-59 as 23-point favorites, UMES 94-29 as 34-point favorites and Morehead State 120-81 as 29-point favorites.  The Bulldogs covered the spread in those three games by a combined 63 points in those three games.

Georgia Tech has been far less impressive.  The Yellow Jackets only beat that same UMES team 56-52 as 28.5-point favorites in their opener.  Georgia beat UMES by 65!  That common opponent is a big reason I'm on the Bulldogs.  Also, Georgia Tech struggled to get by SE Louisiana in a 10-point win as 15-point favorites.  The Yellow Jackets have no shot of keeping this game competitive.  Bet Georgia Friday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Hornets/Bucks OVER 239

The Hornets are a dead nuts OVER team as long as La'Melo Ball is healthy, and he is making his return to the lineup tonight for this NBA Cup game.  The Bucks are a dead nuts OVER team as long as Giannis is healthy, and he is making his return to the lineup for this NBA Cup game tonight.  This total of 239 is too short.

Ball is averaging 23.3 points, 9.8 assists and 7.8 rebounds per game this season.  Their offense plays a lot faster and is a lot more efficient with him running the show, but their defense gets worse.  The Hornets will be without C Ryan Kalbrenner tonight, so their defense takes a hit without his size inside.  They will have to go more small ball.

Giannis is off to an MVP-caliber start averaging 33.4 points, 11.9 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game.  G Ryan Rollins has emerged as a playmaker, and the Bucks have a lot of shooting surrounding Giannis to make them a very efficient offense.  They will be without one of their best wing defenders in Taurean Prince tonight as well.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

15* CBB Friday Total DOMINATOR on IU Indy/Eastern Michigan OVER 185.5

IU Indianapolis brought in West Liberty DII head coach Ben Howlett to try and turn around the program.  At the very least, the Jaguars will be one of the most fun teams to watch in the country.  He brings a brand of positionless basketball with him, running a player-driven motion offense and 40-minute pressure on defense.  The goal is to play as fast as possible and speed the opponent up.

West Liberty averaged over 100 points per game last season under Howlett.  He brought three West Liberty transfers with him.  The Jaguars are off to an eye-opening start, losing 118-102 to Ohio State for 220 combined points while sailing OVER the 171.5-point total by nearly 50 points.  Oddsmakers are going to struggle to set their totals high enough in the early going, including tonight.

IU Indy came back with a 94-90 loss to Long Island last time out in a game that really slowed down late due to poor shooting.  It still finished with 184 combined points.  They came back with a 112-82 loss to Butler and 192 combined points.  And last time out they beat IUPUC 121-77 for 198 combined points.

Eastern Michigan played two teams that like to play slow in Georgia State and Pitt in its first two games.  EMU wants to play faster, and they will welcome this up-tempo game with IUPUI in a classic stat padder, playground-style game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hawks/Jazz OVER 233.5

The Utah Jazz are a dead nuts OVER team.  They play fast and they rank 25th in defensive rating allowing 117.9 points per 100 possessions.  They face an Atlanta Hawks team with a similar profile that also likes to play fast tonight.  This game should sail OVER this 233.5-point total.

Utah is 4-1 OVER in its five home games scoring 133.2 points per game and allowing 125.2 points per game, combining to average over 258 points per game at home this season.  The Jazz and their opponents have combined for 233 or more points in all five home games, including 280 with the short-handed Pacers last time out.

The Hawks are thriving offensively even without Trae Young.  They have scored at least 122 points in four of their last seven games overall, and I expect them to get to at least that number tonight to pave the way in us cashing this OVER 233.5 ticket.  The Jazz just hung 152 points on the Pacers and they have scored at least 129 points in four of their five home games this season.  

The OVER is 3-0 in the last three meetings between the Hawks and Jazz finishing with 281, 245 and 246 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Jets/Patriots AFC East No-Brainer on New England -10

The Patriots are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall as the most underrated team in the NFL this season.  They have a bye on deck next week, and with that in mind they will be 'all in' here looking forward to going into the bye week with positive momentum.

I fully expect the Patriots to make easy work of the short-handed Jets tonight.  The Jets traded away their two best players in DT Quinnen Williams and CB Sauce Gardner prior to the deadline.  They have stockpiled draft picks to set them up for the future with those two moves, but in the interim they are going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

The Jets were able to overcome those losses with a 27-20 home win over the lowly Cleveland Browns last week.  It was one of the most misleading wins of the season as the Jets benefited from a 99-yard KO return TD and a 74-yard punt return TD within one minute of each other.  The Jets were held to just 171 total yards by the Browns, and this is one of the worst offenses in the NFL in its current state.

The Jets will be without their best receiver in Garrett Wilson tonight.  Without him, they lack playmakers on the outside.  They won't be able to keep up with this high-powered Patriots offense and MVP candidate, Drake Maye.  

He leads a New England offense that ranks 8th in scoring at 26.5 points per game, 10th in total offense at 359.1 yards per game and 5th at 6.2 yards per play.  Maye is completing 71.7% of his passes with a 19-to-5 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.9 per attempt.  Going on the road and beating the Bucs who were off a bye 28-23 last week was mighty impressive.  The Patriots racked up 435 total yards on a very good Bucs defense, and Maye threw for 270 yards and 2 TD in the win.  Rookie RB Henderson rushed for 147 yards and 2 TD and should play a huge role tonight.

The Jets were already without Williams and Gardner due to those trades, but now they will be without fellow starting CB Azareye'h Thomas, and both DE Will McDonald and DT Harrison Phillips are questionable.  The Browns weren't able to take advantage of all these players gone, but the Bengals went for 38 points on them the game prior.  And the Patriots will be able to get what they want offensively here.

I love the matchup for the Patriots tonight, too.  The Jets need to be able to run the ball with Hall and Fields to be successful.  The Patriots will have none of it, forcing Fields to try and beat them with his arm, which he cannot.  New England ranks 1st in the NFL allowing just 79.2 rushing yards per game and 4th allowing 3.8 yards per carry.  This is a terrible matchup for the short-handed, terrible Jets tonight.  Bet the Patriots Thursday.

20* Lakers/Thunder ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 228.5

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 9-2 OVER in their 11 games this season finishing with 228 or more combined points in 10 of those 11 games.  This despite playing without LeBron James the entire way, and multiple games without both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

Reaves (30.3 PPG, 9.0 APG) is back after missing three games in a row.  The Lakers have been pretty dangerous with him and Luka Doncic (37.1 PPG, 9.4 RPG, 9.1 APG) on the court at the same time.  They are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA, but they are also one of the worst defensive teams.

The Thunder are 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have gone for 228 or more combined points with their opponents in six of those seven games.  This total of 228.5 is very short for a game involving the Lakers and Thunder right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Weber State +22.5

Weber State returns three players who averaged at least 6.2 points per game last season.  All three played big roles in their 130-38 dismantling of West Coast Baptist in the opener.  Trevor Henning had 20 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists, Nigel Burris had 14 points and 7 boards, and Viljami Vartiainen had 11 points and 4 assists.  Newcomers Jace Whiting (19 points), David Hansen (15 points) and Bourgeoius Tshilobo (12 points, 6 boards) also played big roles.

I backed Weber State as 15.5-point underdogs in their next game at Utah and they nearly pulled off the outright upset in a 92-89 (OT) loss.  Through two games, the Wildcats have six different players averaging in double-figures scoring.  They are the definition of team basketball, and I fully expect them to give Utah State a run for its money tonight.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Aggies after a 26-8 record last season.  They did it with smoke and mirrors with some good luck in close games.  The losses are big as they lose four players who averaged at least 6.4 PPG last season, including leading scorer Ian Martinez (16.4 PPG).

Utah State took care of Westminister 110-54 before surviving a 80-77 win over VCU as 3-point favorites on a neutral.  That's a rebuilding VCU team with a first-year head coach who had to replace all five starters who all averaged at least 9.7 PPG last season.  I don't think the Aggies have any business laying 22.5 points to this game Wildcats team that already showed they could go on the road and play with Utah.  Bet Weber State Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Weber State/Utah State OVER 155

Utah State is all offense and no defense.  The Aggies ranked 2nd in the MWC averaging 79.9 PPG last season and 1st in assists (17.1 APG).  They are fun to watch on offense, but not very good on defense.  That was on display in their 80-77 win over VCU last time out.  That's a rebuilding VCU team with a first-year head coach who had to replace all five starters who all averaged at least 9.7 PPG last season, and they allowed 77 points to the Rams.

Weber State is coming off a 92-89 (OT) loss at Utah in a game that was tied 84-84 at the end of regulation for 168 combined points.  The Wildcats have a ton of sharp shooters with six players averaging double-digits scoring through two games.

Weber State likes to play fast ranking 88th in average length of offensive possession.  The Aggies will welcome the up-tempo style in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the night.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Spurs OVER 231.5

The Spurs are now a dead nuts OVER team since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury to run the PG position.  He made his return two games ago in a 126-119 win over the Pelicans for 245 combined points.  That was a Pelicans team missing two of its best players in Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, too.  The Spurs beat the Bulls 121-117 for 238 combined points last time out.  The Spurs are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall going for 231 or more combined points in all five games.

The Spurs will play a lot faster with Fox moving forward.  Nobody in the NBA gets from one rim to the other faster than Fox.  He will get the Spurs in their offense faster, and they will play with much more pace.  That was evident against the Pelicans and Bulls, and it will continue to be the case tonight against the Warriors.

Steph Curry is expected to play tonight, and as long as he is in the lineup the Warriors profile more of an OVER team.  The Spurs and Warriors have combined for at least 230 points in six of their last nine meetings.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on San Antonio Spurs -4

The San Antonio Spurs are one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season.  They have gone 8-2 SU & 5-4-1 ATS this season, including 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS at home.  I fully expect them to make it 6-0 at home to start the season given the favorable spot they are in against the Warriors tonight.

The Warriors will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-102 road loss at Oklahoma City last night.  They will also be playing their 6th game in 9 days, which is about as tough as it gets.  The Warriors are 0-6 SU & 0-6 ATS in their last six road games including blowout losses to the Blazers by 20, the Nuggets by 25 and the Thunder by 24.  Kuminga has been downgraded to questionable.

The Spurs are rolling despite only having De'Aaron Fox for the last two games.  He has averaged 22.5 points per game in those two games since returning, and the Spurs will only continue to get more and more comfortable with him with each passing game moving forward.  They will handle their business tonight.  Bet the Spurs Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Night BLOWOUT on Miami Heat -5.5

The Miami Heat are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They have opened 7-4 SU & 8-3 ATS and their change of philosophy to play at the fastest pace in the entire NBA is giving teams trouble.

It gave the Cavaliers trouble the other night in a 140-138 (OT) win by Miami on Monday.  And that was with a healthy Cavaliers team.  Now the Cavs have no chance of keeping this game competitive with all the players that will be sitting out for the rematch tonight.

The Cavs will be without Mitchell (30.4 PPG), Mobley (20.1 PPG), Garland (13.0 PPG) and Tyson (11.1 PPG).  I trust Erik Spoelstra and these Miami players not to take them lightly tonight.  If they don't, this will be one of the biggest blowouts of the season.  Bet the Heat Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Bulls ML +105

The Bulls are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season.  They are 6-4 SU & 7-2-1 ATS despite playing without Coby White the entire season, and Josh Giddey for multiple games.  They are proving they are one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and their ultra fast pace gives opponents problems.

It will certainly cause problems for the short-handed Detroit Pistons tonight.  Several players got injured in their 137-135 (OT) win over Washington on the 2nd of a back-to-back as 11-point favorites on Monday.  Now it looks like they are going to rest some key players tonight.

The Pistons were already going to be without Tobias Harris, Ausar Thompson and Isaiah Stewart tonight.  Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren both missed shootaround, a sign that neither will play tonight.  The Pistons will be running out basically a G League team if that's the case.  The Bulls have lost three straight coming in so they will not take them lightly if these guys sit.  Bet the Bulls on the Money Line Wednesday.

20* Magic/Knicks ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 226.5

The Knicks are rolling offensively going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall while scoring at least 119 points in six consecutive games.  The OVER is 6-1 in Knicks last seven games overall finishing with 232 or more combined points in six of those seven games.  This total of 226.5 is too low for a game involving the Knicks right now.

The Magic have changed philosophy to try and play faster and their offense has been much better with the addition of Desmond Bane and the return to health of Jalen Suggs.  The Magic rank in the top half of the league in pace.  But they have slipped big-time defensively this season.

The Magic and their opponents have combined for at least 227 points in five of their last seven games overall.  So this total of 226.5 is also pretty low for a game involving the Magic right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -12

Virginia Tech will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season after a 13-19 campaign last year including 8-12 in ACC play.  The Hokies return four starters in Tobi Lawal (12.4 PPG, 7.0 RP), Tyler Johnson (6.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG), Benn Hammond (5.6 PPG) and Jaden Shutt (7.7 PPG).  They added in UNLV transfer Jailen Bedford, WVU transfer Amani Hansberry and a pair of talented freshmen in Christian Gurdak and Neoklis Avdalas.

The Hokies easily covered as 18.5-point favorites in their opener beating Charleston Southern 98-67.  Lawal led the way with 20 points and 12 rebounds and Hansberry had 19 points and 13 boards.  Bedford had 13 points and 5 rebounds, while six other players had at least 6 points in the win.

The 107-101 (OT) win over Providence in Game 2 was the coming out party for Greece freshman G Neoklis Avdalas.  The 19-year-old recorded 33 points, 6 assists and 5 rebounds to lead the Hokies to victory.  The 6-9 guard will prove to be one of the best players in the country.  Providence went on to blast Penn 106-81 as 19-point home favorites, making that win look even stronger.

Steve Donahue took over at St. Joe's only two months ago after previous head coach Billy Lange bolted for an assistant coaching role with the Knicks.  The Hawks were already without their top three scorers from last year in Brown (17.6 PPG), Reynolds (16 PPG) and Fleming (14.7 PPG).  That's a lot of production lost, which is why I'm not very high on St. Joe's this season.

I think the Hawks are getting too much respect for a pair of home wins over Lafayette (85-76) and Drexel (76-65).  This will be a much tougher opponent and their first true road game of the season tonight.  Drexel went on to lose 90-83 at Colgate as a 4-point dog.  Lafayette went on to lose 97-60 as 25-point dogs at Texas, so those wins aren't aging very well.  Bet Virginia Tech Wednesday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on UTRGV +18

UTRGV is catching too many points tonight against Boise State.  The Vaqueros went 16-15 in Kahil Fennell's first season last year and look like one of the more improved teams in the country this season.

UTRGV opened with a 96-81 loss at Baylor as 24.5-point dogs.  That's a Baylor team that went on to cover in a 78-69 win as 6-point favorites over a solid Washington team.  The Vaqueros went on to rout Southern Utah 95-72 as 1.5-point road favorites last time out, covering the spread by 21.5 points.  That's a Southern Utah team that only lost by 17 at Arizona State in their opener.

Boise State tipped its hand with just how much a rebuilding year this is going to be with a shocking 79-78 loss to Hawaii Pacific in the opener.  A 101-77 win over Utah Valley as 11.5-point favorites last time out doesn't ease that fact.  Utah Valley is a rebuilding team of its own that lost four starters including all of its double-digit scorers from last season.

Boise State loses three starters including its two best players in Tyson Degenhard (18.3 PPG, 6.1 RPG) and Alvaro Cardenas (11.5 PPG, 6.9 APG) from last season.  It's going to continue being a rocky ride for the Broncos tonight to open non-conference play.  Bet UTRGV Tuesday.

20* Celtics/76ers NBC No-Brainer on Philadelphia ML -115

Tough break with Joel Embiid getting ruled out out of nowhere since I released this play.  But I still think the 76ers have the goods to get the job done as they have gotten used to playing without Embiid for the last two seasons.  If anything I'd just downgrade this to a 15* instead of a 20*.

The 76ers want revenge from a 109-108 home loss to the Celtics in the NBA Cup on October 31st.  They will want this game more, and I could see the Celtics having a letdown here after already beating the 76ers.  I also just don't think this Celtics team is that good with who they are putting on the court this season with the losses of Tatum, Porzingis, Holiday and Horford.

The 76ers are 3-2 SU at home this season with their two losses coming by a combined 4 points, so they are very close to being 5-0 at home.  The Celtics are 3-3 SU on the road with two of their wins coming by a combined 5 points and the other coming against one of the worst teams in the NBA in the Pelicans.  They lost by 13 to the Magic and by 10 to the Knicks.

The Celtics will be playing their 10th game in 17 days as they haven't had two days off in a row once this season.  The 76ers will be playing just their 3rd game in 6 days.  Bet the 76ers on the Money Line Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -10

SMU is one of the most talented teams in the ACC.  It's Year 2 under Andy Enfield after he went 24-11 in his first season with the Mustangs.  Three starters are back in Boopie Miller (13.2 PPG, 5.5 APG), Samet Yigitoglu (10.0 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and BJ Edwards (9.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG).

Miller (17.0 PPG), Edwards (13.0 PPG) and Yigitoglu (12.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) are off to solid starts through two games this season.  Jacksonville State transfer Jaron Pierre Jr. (16.5 PPG) and Wichita State transfer Corey Washington (14.5 PPG) are showing they can contribute right away as this is one of the better starting 5's in the country.

Murray State is in a rebuilding year off a 16-17 campaign last season that led to the firing of Steve Prohm.  The Racers have a first-year head coach in Ryan Miller, a Creighton assistant.  They will be breaking in an entirely new roster with three Creighton transfers.

I think we are getting SMU cheap tonight because they have opened 0-2 ATS, while Murray State has opened 2-0 ATS against Omaha and Mississippi Valley State.  This is a big step up in class for the Racers and their first true road game.  I don't expect it to go well for them.  Bet SMU Tuesday.

20* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Raptors -10

The Brooklyn Nets are a dumpster fire this season.  They are 1-9 SU & 3-7 ATS with their lone win coming against the short-handed Indiana Pacers, who are an equal dumpster fire.  The Nets have six losses already by 16 points or more, so laying this 10-point spread isn't that big of a stretch at all.

That's especially the case with how well the Toronto Raptors are playing right now.  The Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back at Philadelphia after beating the Hawks by 12 on the road in the NBA Cup the night prior.  It was a clear letdown spot.

Now the Raptors are rested and ready to go tonight after having the last two days off.  Their last four wins have all come by 11 points or more, so laying 10 here is not a big stretch.  Those four wins came against the Hawks, Bucks, Grizzlies and Cavs all by double-digits, so it was a tough schedule as well.  The Raptors are fully healthy with the exception of backup F Agbaji.

The Nets will be without second-leading scorer Cam Thomas (21.4 PPG) and key role player Day'Ron Sharpe (6.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG).  The Nets rank dead last in the NBA in defensive rating allowing 126.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Raptors are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Nets winning by 11, 30 and 17 points.  Bet the Raptors Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Knicks -9.5

The New York Knicks fully healthy right now and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Knicks are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall beating the Bulls by 12 as 7.5-point favorites, the Wizards by 17 as 13-point favorites, the Timberwolves by 23 as 3.5-point favorites and the Nets by 36 as 15.5-point favorites.

The Knicks will continue their string of double-digit blowout victories against a Memphis Grizzlies team that is one of the most overrated in the NBA.  The Grizzlies are 4-7 SU & 3-8 ATS this season.  JA Morant acts like he doesn't even want to be in Memphis anymore, and he just doesn't have much help outside of Jaren Jackson Jr.

The Grizzlies have rarely even been competitive this season as five of their seven losses have come by 13 points or more.  That includes road losses to the Warriors by 16 and the Raptors by 13, as well as home losses to the Thunder by 14, the Rockets by 15 and the Heat by 32.

The rest situation favors the Knicks, too.  They will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, while the Grizzlies will be playing their 11th game in 19 days and have not had two days off in between games all season.  Bet the Knicks Tuesday.

20* Eagles/Packers ESPN No-Brainer on Philadelphia +2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are starting to look like the team that won the Super Bowl last season.  They predictably got off to a slow start with a bunch of narrow wins, and it eventually caught up to them.  But after an upset loss to the Giants, the Eagles have turned a corner.

They bounced back with a 28-22 win at Minnesota behind a breakout passing game from Jalen Hurts, who completed 19-of-23 passes for 326 yards and 3 TD.  They avenged that loss to New York with a 38-20 win over the Giants in the rematch.  This time, they got their running game going rushing for 276 yards.  Barkley rushed for 150 yards on 14 carries while Bigsby rushed for 104 yards on 9 carries.

Now the Eagles are coming off their bye week and primed for a big effort against the Packers.  The Eagles are about as healthy as they have been all season.  Their defense is basically fully healthy now with the return of LB Nolan Smith from IR.  This is one of the best defenses in the NFL when they are as healthy as they are right now.  All of their playmakers are healthy on offense, and the only loss there is C Cam Jurgens.

The Packers are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL going 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are coming off a 16-13 home loss to the Panthers as 13.5-point favorites.  That's the same Panthers team that just lost 17-7 at home to the Saints this week.  They also struggled to put away Arizona by 4, Cincinnati by 9 and needed a big 2H comeback to beat the Steelers.  Before that, they tied the Cowboys and lost outright to the Browns as 7.5-point favorites.

This will be the Packers' toughest test of the season against an Eagles team that eliminated them in the playoffs with a 22-10 victory last year.  We saw the Eagles handle this situation well twice already, beating the Chiefs and Rams this season, two teams they also knocked out of the playoffs last year.  I think they enjoy their dominance of these teams and really get up for these games.

The Packers have a ton of injury questions coming into this one.  On offense, WR Matthew Golden, WR Dontayvion Wicks, WR Savion Williams and RT Zach Tom are all questionable.  They were already without WR Jayden Reed, and now TE Tucker Kraft suffered a season-ending injury against the Panthers last week.  They could not afford to lose Kraft, who has easily been their most productive player in the passing game consistently bailing out the offense with his ability to run after the catch.  Kraft has 32 receptions for a team-high 489 yards and 6 TD up to this point.  They could not afford to lose him, and I don't think they can beat the Eagles without him.  Bet the Eagles Monday.

20* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Spurs/Bulls OVER 236.5

The Bulls are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 6th in pace this season while going 5-2 OVER in their last seven games overall.  They have gone for 236 or more combined points in six of their last seven games, including 250 with the Cavs, 244 with the Knicks, 260 with the Knicks and 251 with the Hawks.  This total of 236.5 is pretty low for a game involving the Bulls.

The Spurs are now a dead nuts OVER team since getting De'Aaron Fox back from injury to run the PG position.  He made his return last time out in a 126-119 win over the Pelicans for 245 combined points.  That was a Pelicans team missing two of its best players in Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, too.

The Spurs will play a lot faster with Fox moving forward.  Nobody in the NBA gets from one rim to the other faster than Fox.  He will get the Spurs in their offense faster, and they will play with much more pace.  That was evident against the Pelicans, and it will be amplified tonight against a Bulls team that will welcome them to run.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* Mississippi State/Iowa State ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on OVER 150

Iowa State consistently gets respect for how good its defense is but not enough respect for how good its offense is, plus the fact that head coach T.J. Otzelberger has had a change in philosophy to play much faster since last season.

The Cyclones rank 83rd out of 365 teams in average length of offensive possession this season despite playing in two blowouts.  They continue to play fast even when they are way ahead.  After a 88-50 win over Fairleigh Dickinson in their opener, they came back with a 102-62 win over Grambling State for 164 combined points.

Mississippi State is coming off a 86-62 win over South Alabama for 148 combined points.  But both teams shot poorly as the Bulldogs shot 31-of-71 (43.7%) while North Alabama shot 24-of-65 (36.9%).  The pace was there, but the shooting wasn't.  The Bulldogs are 109th in average length of offensive possession.

The pace will be there tonight, and both teams should shine offensively.  The Cyclones returned three starters and all three are cooking in Lipsey (14.0 PPG, 5.5 APG), Jefferson (17.0 PPG) and Moncilovic (20 PPG, 5 made 3's/game).  Josh Hubbard (27 PPG) is one of the best scorers in the country and back to lead the Bulldogs.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Cavs/Heat OVER 247

Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Monday when the Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Miami Heat.  The Heat rank 1st in pace with their new brand of basketball while the Cavaliers rank 7th in pace, carrying over what they did last season that made them one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA.

The Heat are 6-4 OVER in their 10 games this season finishing with 246 or more combined points five times.  The Cavs are 3-0 OVER in their last three games finishing with 250 combined points with the Bulls, 263 with the Wizards and 253 with the 76ers.

The Cavaliers recently got both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland back from injury and have been thriving on offense since, scoring 132 points against the 76ers, 148 against the Wizard and 128 against the Bulls.  They will hang a big number on the Heat, who are missing their best defender in Bam Adebayo and playing much more small ball now.

The Heat are coming off a 136-131 home win over the Blazers for 267 combined points.  Having Norman Powell back healthy opens up their offense, and their bench is deep with Jovic (29 points) and Jacquez Jr. (14) providing offensive production when they come in.  This figures to be one of the highest-scoring games of the season.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Lakers/Hornets OVER 231

The Lakers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 8-2 OVER in their 10 games this season finishing with 228 or more combined points in nine of those 10 games.  This despite playing without LeBron James the entire way, and multiple games without both Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.

Reaves (31.1 PPG, 9.3 APG) is back from a 3-game absence tonight.  The Lakers have been pretty dangerous with him and Luka Doncic (37 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 9.5 APG) on the court at the same time.  They are one of the most efficient offensive teams in the NBA, but they are also one of the worst defensive teams.

The Hornets also profile as an OVER team ranking 4th in pace this season and 24th in defensive rating.  They will get Miles Bridges (20.7 PPG) and Collin Sexton (16.1 PPG, 5.3 APG) back tonight, and they should be able to do enough offensively even without La'Melo Ball.  This total would easily be in the 240's if Ball was playing, and I think it has been adjusted down too much for the fact that he's not.

The OVER is 5-3 in the last eight meetings finishing with 231 or more combined points in six of those eight games.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Portland Trail Blazers +2.5

The spot really favors the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They had yesterday off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days with a short trip from Miami to Orlando.  Meanwhile, the Magic will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after a 111-107 loss to the Celtics last night after beating the same Celtics team in the NBA Cup on Friday.

The Magic have already announced they will be without Jalen Suggs tonight due to rest.  Suggs had 20 points, 8 rebounds and 4 assists against the Celtics yesterday and was finding his footing in his return from injury this season.  The offense is just lost without him as he gets everything going for them.  The other four starters all played at least 32 minutes last night for the Magic, and I question how much they'll have left in the tank tonight.

The Blazers will test those tired legs by playing at the 2nd-fastest pace in the NBA this season.  They have been one of the more underrated teams in the NBA going 5-4 SU & 6-3 ATS this season with upset wins over the likes of the Thunder, Nuggets, Warriors and Lakers thus far.

The Magic have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA, going 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in their 10 games.  Wrong team favored here.  Bet the Blazers Monday.

15* CBB Monday Total DOMINATOR on Indiana State/SIU-Edwardsville OVER 157.5

Indiana State played at the 9th-fastest tempo in the country last season and took 49.4% of its shots from 3-point range.  It will be more of the same this season in the 2nd year under Matthew Graves as head coach.  They return four key contributors from that team plus added in some nice transfers.

Indiana State opened with a 92-76 loss to Charlotte for 168 combined points that sailed OVER the 153-point total.  They came back with a 104-73 win over Illinois Tech and 177 combined points.  This total of 157.5 is too low tonight for a game involving the Sycamores.

SIU-Edwardsville is among the favorites to win the Ohio Valley this season.  It's easy to see why with three key players coming back from a team that went 22-12 last season.  The Cougars added Oral Roberts PG Darius Robinson and Southern Indiana PG Jack Campion on the offseason.

The Cougars opened with a 119-50 win over East-West University for 169 combined points.  They came back with a 77-60 win over UTSA.  The pace was there, but UTSA is dreadful offensively hitting just 20-of-71 (28.2%) from the field.

Indiana State is 33rd in adjusted tempo thus far and hitting just 26.9% from 3-point range which can only get better moving forward.  SIU-Edwardsville takes a big step up in competition here at least defensively and won't be able to sustain these defensive numbers.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

25* NBC Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Los Angeles Chargers and 'sell high' on the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.  Both teams are coming off misleading results that have made this line lower than it should be.  The Chargers should be more than 2.5-point home favorites over the Steelers, and this is my favorite play of the entire season on the Sunday Night Football Stage as a result.

The Steelers are coming off a 27-20 home win over the Indianapolis Colts.  The Colts gift-wrapped them that win by committing 6 turnovers, yet it was still a one-score game.  The Colts outgained the Steelers 368 to 225, or by 143 total yards.  It was a very fluky result and one of those games where just everything goes the Steelers' way.  It happened earlier this season when the Patriots committed 5 turnovers against them in a one-score game.

It was criminal that the Chargers didn't cover as 9.5-point favorites against the Titans last week in a 27-20 win.  The Titans had a pick-6 and a punt return TD and didn't score a single TD on offense.  The Chargers outgained the Titans 343 to 206, or by 137 total yards.

Everyone is making a big deal about the Chargers losing Joe Alt to a season-ending injury.  But not enough is being made of the fact that the Chargers traded for Trevor Penning of the Saints to take his place.  That was a great coup and one that will pay big dividends for them moving forward.  I'm also not that concerned about the loss of RT Bobby Hart because Trey Pipkins III is back healthy.  The Chargers are going to be just fine along the offensive line, and Herbert's mobility is a big weapon to counter it.

The numbers show the Chargers are by far the superior team.  The Chargers are 5th in total offense at 374.6 yards per game and 10th at 6.0 yards per play while also ranking 6th in total defense at 286.8 yards per game and 11th at 5.4 yards per play.  The Chargers are outgaining opponents by 88 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.

The Steelers rank 28th in total offense at 288.1 yards per game and 22nd at 5.4 yards per play.  They rank 30th in total defense at 383.8 yards per game and 25th at 5.8 yards per play.  They are getting outgained by 95 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play on the season.  The Chargers are the much superior team and it will show on the field Sunday night.  

Aaron Rodgers is 2-5 ATS in his last seven primetime games, including 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS as an underdog.  Justin Herbert is 5-0 ATS in his last five primetime games and 16-9 ATS overall, including 10-3 SU as a favorite in primetime games.  Bet the Chargers Sunday. Bet the Chargers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Knicks -15.5

The Brooklyn Nets are a dumpster fire this season.  They are 1-8 SU & 3-6 ATS with their lone win coming against the short-handed Indiana Pacers, who are an equal dumpster fire.  The Nets have five losses already by 16 points or more, so laying this 15.5-point spread isn't that big of a stretch at all.

That's especially the case with the New York Knicks fully healthy right now and showing what they are capable of when that's the case.  The Knicks are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall beating the Bulls by 12 as 7.5-point favorites, the Wizards by 17 as 13-point favorites and the Timberwolves by 23 as 3.5-point favorites.

The Knicks have been off since Wednesday so they are on three days' rest and primed for a big effort.  They will have no mercy for the Nets, who they currently have a 10-game winning streak against and will keep that going in blowout fashion today.  Bet the Knicks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on VMI +24.5

VMI is loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that went 15-19 last season.  They improved by 11 wins last season and now have one of the most experienced rosters in the country.  They return nine players who scored at least 3.5 points per game last season.  Five returning players combined to make more than 200 3-point shots last season.

VMI opened with a 122-58 win over Johnson & Wales Charlotte.  Eight players scored at least 9 points in the win.  They came back with a 78-74 road win at Southern Indiana as 2.5-point favorites.  TJ Johnson went off for 32 points to lead the way and is averaging 25.5 points per game through two games this season.

While I'm high on VMI early in the season, I'm low on the Missouri Tigers.  They have been far from impressive thus far beating Howard 88-67 as 19.5-point favorites barely covering despite shooting 55.7% from the field.  They didn't even come close to covering as 25.5-point favorites against SE Missouri State in a 89-84 win despite shooting 59.3% from the field.  They committed 19 turnovers and allowed SEMO to shoot 46%.  They remain sloppy with the basketball and a leaky defense again this season.  Bet VMI Sunday.

15* Rams/49ers NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -3.5

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week.  They had their bye two weeks ago and returned from it with a 34-10 dismantling of the New Orleans Saints.  They outgained the Saints 438 to 224, or by 214 yards.  They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and they are ready for revenge on the 49ers from a fluky 26-23 (OT) loss in their first meeting on October 2nd.  They fumbled that game away going in for the winning score late.  They racked up 456 yards on the 49ers and should have won.

The 49ers are a tired, injury-ravaged team right now that just won't be able to put up much of a fight in the rematch.  They will be playing for a 10th consecutive week here as they have yet to have their bye week.  They are without Brock Purdy, Rickey Pearsall, Brandon Aiyuk and could be without G Ben Bartch on offense.  They are without Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Yetur Gross-Matos and have another four starters listed as questionable on defense.  Their front seven in particular is in shambles.  The 49ers rank dead last in pressure rate and 2nd-to-last in sacks since losing Bosa.

The fatigue fact is amplified after consecutive long road trips to Houston in a 26-15 loss and New York in a 34-24 win over the equally injury-ravaged Giants.  They had to fly across country and won't have had much time to prepare for the Rams, who were at home last week and will have a short trip to Santa Clara for this one.

The Rams are legit one of the best teams in the NFL as they are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and even their two losses were fluky.  One was that loss to the 49ers where they had 456 yards and fumbled it away, and the other was a blown 26-7 lead on the road to the Eagles where they had their game-winning FG blocked at the buzzer.

The Rams have rebounded nicely from that loss to the 49ers going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with a 14-point win at Baltimore, a 28-point win at Jacksonville and a 24-point home win over the Saints.  You could make the argument the Rams are the best team in the NFL when you look at the numbers.  They are 7th in total offense at 369.9 yards per game and 9th at 6.0 yards per play, while ranking 10th in total defense at 302.9 yards per game and 5th at 5.0 yards per play.  They are outgaining opponents by 67 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play.

The 49ers have been winning with smoke and mirrors as they are actually getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play.  Four of their six wins came by 5 points or fewer, while each of their last two losses came by double-digits to Houston and Tampa Bay.  Their luck runs out this week against a Rams team that wants it more and is the much more rested, healthy and better team.  

The 49ers are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games following a win.  The Rams are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 division games when playing in the 2nd meeting of the season on the road.  Bet the Rams Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Lions -8

I love the spot for the Detroit Lions this week.  The Lions are a perfect 12-0 SU & 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.  They will be extra motivated this week for revenge after losing to the Commanders in the playoffs last year.  Detroit is 20-5 SU & 19-6 ATS since 2023 when revenging a defeat.  The Lions won't mind kicking the Commanders while they are down this week.

And boy are the Commanders down in the dumps.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall getting upset by the Bears at home, losing by 22 in Dallas, losing by 21 in Kansas City and losing by 24 at home to Seattle last week.  Head coach Dan Quinn leaving Jayden Daniels in to suffer an injury late in a blowout to Seattle might have been the final straw.

The Commanders are a tired, injury-ravaged team that will be playing for a 10th consecutive week as they have yet to have their bye week.  They are also without their best WR in Terry McClaurin and two more WR's in Noah Brown and Luke McCaffrey on offense, giving Marcus Mariota almost no shot of being successful on offense.

The defense is one of the oldest units in the league and extremely slow.  That defense is missing four pass-rushers who are on IR right now in Armstrong, Wise Jr., Jackson and Jean-Baptiste.  It is also down a starting CB in Marshon Lattimore, while FS Quan Martin, backup FS Tyler Owens and DT Eddie Goldman are all questionable.  The Commanders are a complete mash unit right now everywhere, giving them little to no chance of keeping this game competitive.

The Lions are coming off a misleading 27-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week.  They held the Vikings to just 258 total yards a week after holding the Bucs to 251 total yards in a 24-9 win.  The problem was losing starting tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell to injuries during that game that had their offense unable to handle Minnesota's blitz-happy scheme.

Well, the Lions got good news on the injury front as both Decker and Sewell practiced this week and should be good to go.  This Washington defense isn't capable of creating the kind of pressure that Minnesota did, and Jared Goff should have a clean pocket to pick it apart.  The Commanders rank 22nd in scoring defense at 26.2 points per game, 28th in total defense at 377.8 yards per game and 30th at 6.4 yards per play.  

Opponents have torched the Commanders for 33.8 points per game and 410 yards per game during their current four-game winning streak. You can just imagine what this high-powered Lions offense is going to do to them this week.  The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense at 29.9 points per game and should get whatever they want.  Detroit also has one of the most improved defenses in the NFL.  They rank 8th in total defense at 294.8 yards per game and 8th at 5.3 yards per play.  Detroit just had a bye two weeks ago and is the much fresher, healthier, better team.  Bet the Lions Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens -3.5

The Ravens released their injury report this week and nobody was on it.  The go from one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL to the healthiest, and now I have them as the best team in the NFL in their current state.  I've backed them with success the last two weeks since returning from their bye healthy, and I'm not about to jump off them now.

Even without Lamar Jackson the Ravens blasted the Bears 30-16 at home two weeks ago off their bye.  They got Jackson back on Thursday in their next game, and he led them to a 28-6 win over the Dolphins while throwing 4 TD passes with only 5 incompletions.  Jackson is completing 72.9% of his passes with a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season.  Now the Ravens are on extra rest here after playing last Thursday and primed for a big effort.

The Minnesota Vikings are in the ultimate letdown spot.  They shocked the Lions 27-24 as 9.5-point road underdogs last week.  It was a fluky result as the Vikings managed just 258 total yards and were outgained by 60 yards by the Lions.  JJ McCarthy is not their savior.  He went 14-of-25 passing for 143 yards, while rushing for just 12 yards on 9 carries in the win.  McCarthy isn't going to be able to match Jackson score for score in this one as it's a huge mismatch at the QB position.

Jackson thrives against the blitz, and the Vikings are one of the most blitz-happy teams in the NFL with Brian Flores as their coordinator.  The Vikings have really been leaking oil defensively in recent weeks against other QB's like Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert that own the blitz.  They allowed 28 points and 316 passing yards to the Eagles and 37 points and 419 total yards to the Chargers before giving up 24 points to the Lions, who suffered multiple O-Line injuries throughout that game that disrupted their rhythm.  The Ravens have one of the best O-Lines in the NFL.

Lamar Jackson is 37-8 SU when facing a head coach for the first time like he will be Kevin O'Connell this week.  Jackson is 24-3 SU against the NFC as a starting QB for the Ravens.  The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after facing the Lions under O'Connell, failing to cover the spread by an average of 11.9 points per game.  Teams playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games are 30-12 SU & 29-13 ATS since 2018.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -5.5

The Panthers are one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season going 5-4 despite being an underdog in all nine games.  Oddsmakers continue to not adjust enough for how improved this team is, and you're going to hear a lot about how they can't cover as a favorite this week.  But these aren't your old Panthers.

Carolina is favored by 5.5 points for good reason this week as I fully expect them to win by a TD or more.  The Panthers are facing arguably the worst team in the NFL in their current state in the New Orleans Saints, who pretty much showed they were giving up on their season by trading away two of their best players at the trade deadline in LT Trevor Penning to the Chargers and WR Rasheed Shaheed to the Seahawks.

The Saints are 1-8 this season and have rarely been competitive here of late.  Five of their last six losses have come by double-digits, so they are getting blown out on the regular.  They are a tired team playing for a 10th consecutive week, and they will now have a lot of travel in between their 34-10 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams over the weekend.  They were outgained 438 to 224 by the Rams, or by 214 total yards.

Tyler Shough made his first career start against the Rams and was terrible, and he's a downgrade from Spencer Rattler in my opinion.  He is set up to fail after trading away Shaheed and Penning.  The Saints will essentially be without both starting tackles with the loss of Penning and now RT Taliese Fuaga is out this week.  They also have four other offensive linemen on IR, and this may be the worst offense in the NFL moving forward.

The Saints are 31st in scoring offense at 15.3 points per game, 29th in total offense at 287.1 yards per game and 30th at 4.9 yards per play.  They are 24th in scoring defense at 27.0 points per game, 18th at 333.3 yards per game and 12th at 5.5 yards per play.  They are getting outscored by 11.7 points per game and outgained by 50 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.

The Panthers are fully healthy on offense with the exception of RG.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with Bryce Young at QB.  He has underrated weapons at receiver and a two-headed monster at RB in Dowdle and Hubbard.  This is one of the most underrated offenses in the NFL.

The Panthers also have a vastly improved defense ranking 13th in total defense this season at 316.6 yards per game.  They shut out the Falcons, held the Jets to 6 and held the Packers to 13 points.  They are also fully healthy on defense, and overall one of the most healthy teams in the NFL right now which is key this late in the season.

The Panthers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 TS at home this season playing much better on their home turf.  Their lone loss was with Andy Dalton at QB to a pissed off Buffalo Bills team coming off their bye week and two consecutive losses.  Dalton was playing with a broken thumb to boot.

Adding to the Saints' fatigue is the fact that their defense was on the field for 44 minutes agains the Rams.  They only possessed the ball for 16 minutes and 40 plays.  Teams coming off a game with 40 offensive plays or fewer have gone 4-11 SU since 2014, including 1-10 SU as underdogs.  The Saints are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 14 points or less.  Bet the Panthers Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Patriots/Bucs OVER 47.5

This game really sets up for an OVER.  We have two of the top MVP candidates at QB in Baker Mayfield and Drake Maye up against two poor pass defenses.  And both defenses are elite against the run, so I don't expect either offense to try to run the football much.  The ball will be in the air a lot, which favors the OVER.

Maye leads a Patriots offense that ranks 7th in scoring at 26.3 points per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play.  He is completing 74.1% of his passes for 2,285 yards with a 17-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 270 yards and two scores on the ground.  He'll be up against a Bucs defense that ranks 22nd against the pass.

Mayfield leads a Bucs offense that ranks 15th in scoring at 24.6 points per game.  He is completing 63.9% of his passes for 1,919 yards with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 158 yards.  He is back healthy now and wasn't running as much leading into a much-needed bye last week.  He should use his legs more moving forward, which is a big weapon of his to move the chains.  He'll be up against a Patriots defense that ranks 19th against the pass and 25th allowing 7.0 per attempt.

The Bucks will be without LB Haason Reddick and his backup in Markees Watts.  They were already without Calijah Kancey and really lack a pass rush right now.  The Patriots lost LB Christian Elliss to injury last week and he is out for this one.  I expect both offenses to have their way with these defenses, especially given the forecast.  

Temps will be in the 80's with single-digit winds and only a 25% chance of rain.  The OVER is 3-0 in Bucs three home games this season finishing with 49, 56 and 56 combined points.  The Patriots are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5

I love the spot for the Tampa Bay Bucs.  They are coming off a much-needed bye week to get healthier.  They worked wonders to get to 6-2 this season as Baker Mayfield made his case for MVP by leading several game-winning drives.  And now they come out of the bye much healthier and ready to knock off the New England Patriots.

The Patriots are running on fumes right now playing for a 10th consecutive week as they have yet to have their bye.  They were fortunate to escape with a 24-23 home win over the Falcons last week after a missed XP by Atlanta late.  Their luck runs out this week.  They have benefited from playing the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point.

A tired New England team will now have to battle the heat in Tampa Bay with temps in the 80's for this one.  Injuries are starting to mount up too as they will be without leading rusher Rhamondre Stevenson (279 yards, 3 TD) and leading TD receiver Kayshon Boutte (431 yards, 5 TD).  They will also be without second-leading tackler Christian Ellis (53 tackles).

The Bucks have been without RT Luke Goedeke and RG Luke Haggard.  Both returned to practice this week and both could return, which would give them their entire starting offensive line back.  The bye week was good for Emeka Egbuka (34 receptions, 562 yards, 5 TD) as well as he was battling a hamstring injury the last few games going into it.  And this Tampa Bay defense will be as healthy as it has been all season this week.

Teams who are off a bye against a team that hasn't had their bye week yet are 6-0 SU this season with all six wins coming by 9 points or more.  Baker Mayfield is 4-0 SU as a favorite off a bye in his career.  The Patriots have won 6 consecutive games, and teams on a 6-plus game winning streak in Week 10 or later when listed as an underdog are 28-42-1 ATS.  The Bucs are favored for good reason and should be favored by more given the favorable spot for them.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears -4

I love the spot for the Chicago Bears this week.  They are back home after consecutive road games against the Ravens and Bengals and taking a step down in class here against the Giants.  They have played five of their first eight games on the road.  They are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS at home this season with their lone loss coming back in Week 1 against the Vikings after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead.  They have since beaten the Cowboys by 17 and the Saints by 12 at home.

While the Bears are the fresher, healthier team after already having their bye week, the Giants will be playing for a 10th consecutive week and are running on fumes right now.  They are losing bodies left and right and are one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  This is much more of a play against the Giants than it is a play on the Bears.

The Giants haven't recovered from blowing a 19-0 lead over the Broncos to lose in the 4th quarter.  They came back and lost 38-20 on the road to the Eagles before falling 34-24 to an equally injury-ravaged 49ers team at home last week.  Their defense is in shambles, allowing an average of 35 points per game in their last three games.

It's easy to see why as the Giants are without CB Paulson Adebo, LB Chauncey Golston, and several other key depth pieces.  The offense isn't any healthier.  The Giants will be without WR Malik Nabers, WR Beaux Collins, RB Cam Skattebo, C John Michael Schmitz Jr and K Graham Gano.  They could also be without RT Jermain Eluemunor, who is questionable.

The Giants are 0-5 SU on the road this season.  The Bears are basically fully healthy on offense, and while they are missing four starters on defense in all, they are still in much better shape than the Giants.  I look for them to make easy work of them here.

The forecast is calling for temps in the 30's, 25 MPH sustained winds and a sloppy field.  The team that runs the football better is going to have the advantage, and that is the Bears.  They will have their full compliment of RB's available and have the much better run-blocking O-Line and play-caller in Ben Johnson.  This is where the Giants will really miss Skattebo getting those tough yards.

The Giants rank 19th averaging 4.2 yards per carry while the Bears rank 2nd overall in rushing at 144.4 yards per game and 6th at 4.9 yards per rush.  The biggest weakness of the Giants is stopping the run.  They rank 32nd allowing 150 rushing yards per game and 32nd allowing 5.5 yards per carry.  They have allowed an average of 192.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games.  Bet the Bears Sunday.

15* Falcons/Colts NFL Berlin Early ANNIHILATOR on Indianapolis -6

I love the spot for the Indianapolis Colts.  They are coming off a humbling, misleading loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in which they gave the game away by committing six turnovers.  They still only lost by 7 despite the 6 turnovers, a sign of a great team.  They outgained the Steelers 368 to 225, or by 143 total yards.  It was a very fluky result.

The Colts are very close to being undefeated this season.  Their other loss to the Rams was fluky as well as they had two TD's overturned, one by penalty and one by dropping the ball before the end zone.  The Rams still needed a game-winning TD in the final two minutes to win by 7 in Los Angeles.  The Colts are winning by blowout week after week, outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per game on the season.  They will get back to their dominant selves this week in Berlin.

The Colts are a complete team other than injuries in their secondary.  Well, they addressed that matter by trading two first-round picks for CB Sauce Gardner, who is easily a Top 2 CB in the league right alongside Patrick Surtain of the Broncos.  Gardner will come in handy particularly in this game matching up with Drake London of the Falcons.  Stop London and you stop this Atlanta passing attack as they are so reliant on him.

The Falcons are a mess right now.  They have lost three in a row with a 10-point loss at San Francisco, a 24-point home loss to Miami and a 1-point road loss at New England. They trailed the Patriots by 14 points last week before a flurry of one-handed catches by London got them back in it.  They missed the potential tying extra point and since cut their kicker.  It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.

The Falcons are decimated by injuries along their offensive line right now.  They are without three starters in RT Kaleb McGary, his replacement in Storm Norton, and LG Matthew Bergeron.  Another starter in Chris Linsdtrom is questionable. Michael Penix does not deal well with pressure, and he will be under duress all game.  Penix is actually 0-5 SU in outdoor games in his career as well.  That includes the loss to New England, the 10-point loss to the 49ers and the 30-point loss to the Panthers earlier this season.

I love the matchup for the Colts.  Both teams rely heavily on their running game with the Jonathan Stewart for the Colts and Bijon Robinson and Tyler Algier for the Falcons.  The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the league, while the Falcons have one of the worst in their current state.  The Falcons rank 23rd allowing 124.4 rushing yards per game and 20th at 4.4 per carry.  The Colts rank 4th allowing just 87 rushing yards per game and 11th at 4.0 per carry.

Favorites are 39-14-1 SU & 34-20 ATS in International games, including 29-9-1 SU & 24-15 ATS as a favorite of a FG or more.  Teams coming off a SU loss as a favorite before an International game are 15-9 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season.  Bet the Colts Sunday morning in Berlin.

15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +12

I love the spot for the Indiana Pacers tonight.  They have had the last two days off, while the Denver Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 129-104 home win over the Golden State Warriors who were without Steph Curry last night.

This will also be the 4th game in 6 days for the Nuggets, who could decide to rest some guys tonight.  That was their first win in their last four games by more than 10 points.  They are laying too many points here given the spot.

The Pacers are just 1-7 SU but 5-3 ATS this season and have been competitive in almost every game.  Only two of their losses have come by more than 9 points this season.  There's a chance they get Andrew Nembhard back from injury as he has been upgraded to questionable, which is a good sign he makes his return tonight.  Bet the Pacers Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA ML +100

Nebraska just had its hopes of making the 12-team playoff come to an end last week with a 21-17 home loss to USC.  The Huskers also lost star QB Dylan Raiola to a season-ending injury in the process.  I think there will be a hangover effect from that dream-crushing loss, and the Huskers will suffer a big drop off in QB play to the backup.

Nebraska is a tired team as it is playing for a 6th consecutive week here.  The injuries are starting to mount up everywhere.  The Huskers were last seen on the road getting upset 24-6 at Minnesota.  That loss looks even worse now after Minnesota went on to get blown out by everyone, including a 41-3 loss to Iowa.  This will only be the 3rd true road game for the Huskers this season.  They also escaped with a 3-point win at fraud Maryland.

UCLA is in the much better spot.  The Bruins are coming off their bye week and they have shown they will play hard for their interim head coach.  They went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Penn State, Michigan State and Maryland before getting blasted at Indiana in their final game going into their bye week.  Everyone is getting blasted by Indiana, so I'm willing to throw that result out.

UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava is completing 63.2% of his passes with 10 TD passes while also rushing for 388 yards and 4 scores.  He is the much better QB in this matchup, and he will lead his team to a victory here against a tired, deflated Nebraska team with a backup QB.  Bet UCLA on the Money Line Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5

I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  They have had the last two days off, while the Miami Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-108 win over the Charlotte Hornets, who were without three of their best players in Ball, Sexton and Miller.  It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Heat, about as tough of a spot as it gets.

Making matters worse for the Heat is they were already without their two best players in Herro and Adebayo, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them rest Norman Powell after he suffered an ankle injury last night.

The Blazers will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days, so they couldn't possibly be fresher.  They are playing well too going 4-1 SU in their last five games overall including wins over the Thunder, Nuggets and Lakers.  They are 6-2 ATS in all games this season and one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA.  Bet the Blazers Saturday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Lakers -3

I love the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.  The Lakers have had the last two days off, while the Atlanta Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 109-97 home loss to the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Cup last night.

The Hawks are already without Trae Young so they are short-handed.  All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Hawks last night.  There's a chance they decide to rest some guys here on the 2nd of a back-to-back.

The Lakers are rolling right now going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back.  Luka Doncic is playing at an MVP level, and JJ Redick is in the running for Coach of the Year honors with what he is doing with this team without LeBron James.  Bet the Lakers Saturday.

20* LSU/Alabama ABC No-Brainer on Alabama -9

LSU is one of the most overrated teams in the country.  Not even firing Brian Kelly will save them as they are a program in shambles right now.  The Tigers have lost all their step up games to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss and a 49-25 blowout home loss to Texas A&M last time out.  It won't get any easier for them this week against Alabama.

The Crimson Tide have been on a mission since losing to Florida State in the opener.  They have delivered going 7-0 SU with road wins over Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina, as well as home wins over Tennessee by 17, Vanderbilt by 16 and Wisconsin by 24.  The Crimson Tide have been dominant at home this season going 4-0 ATS, and they will have a huge home-field advantage for this rivalry game at night in Tuscaloosa.

LSU remains without its defensive leader this week in LB Whit Weeks.  This defense has been shredded without him allowing 31 points and 399 yards to Vanderbilt and 49 points and 426 yards to Texas A&M. You can just imagine what this Alabama offense is going to do to them this week.  Ty Simpson has a 20-to-1 TD/INT ratio and is among the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy.  You would be hard-pressed to find a better QB in the country than Simpson.

Alabama is 12-2 SU & 9-5 ATS in its last 14 meetings with LSU.  That includes a 42-13 road win last season as 3-point favorites and a 42-28 home win the year prior as 3-point favorites.  The Crimson Tide will win this game by double-digits.  Bet Alabama Saturday.