15* NL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -113

The Philadelphia Phillies get the call Sunday with one of the most underrated starters in baseball on the mound. They should be a much heavier favorite considering Cole Hamels is getting the ball today.

The left-hander is off to a slow start this season, but that actually works in our favor because Hamels would normally be a much heavier favorite when up against a team like the lowly New York Mets and Jon Niese.

Hamels has really been pitching well of late, posting a 2.57 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three starts. Niese is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.875 WHIP in his last three starts.

This play falls into a system that is 31-7 (81.6%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs. Bet the Phillies Sunday.

20* Rockets/Thunder Side & Total Parlay on Houston +1.5/UNDER 207.5

I am backing the Houston Rockets and the UNDER tonight as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3. My main reason for taking both plays is that Russell Westbrook will be out due to a torn meniscus in his knee.

The Thunder will be lost without their point guard on the floor tonight. As they struggle, it will prove just how important Westbrook is to this team. He constantly gets bashed in the media for taking too many shots, but the fact of the matter is the Thunder are better when he's being aggressive.

Without Westbrook, the Thunder are going to get much fewer fast break opportunities. They will look to slow it down and run their offense through Kevin Durant almost every time down the floor. The old man Derek Fisher will be running the point guard mostly tonight, and he doesn't have the ability to push the tempo.

The UNDER falls into a system that is 38-10 (79.2%) since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series.

Houston is 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. In fact, the Rockets are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rockets and the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

20* Rockets/Thunder Side & Total Parlay on Houston +1.5/UNDER 207.5

I am backing the Houston Rockets and the UNDER tonight as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3. My main reason for taking both plays is that Russell Westbrook will be out due to a torn meniscus in his knee.

The Thunder will be lost without their point guard on the floor tonight. As they struggle, it will prove just how important Westbrook is to this team. He constantly gets bashed in the media for taking too many shots, but the fact of the matter is the Thunder are better when he's being aggressive.

Without Westbrook, the Thunder are going to get much fewer fast break opportunities. They will look to slow it down and run their offense through Kevin Durant almost every time down the floor. The old man Derek Fisher will be running the point guard mostly tonight, and he doesn't have the ability to push the tempo.

The UNDER falls into a system that is 38-10 (79.2%) since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (HOUSTON) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 3rd game of a playoff series.

Houston is 11-1 ATS as a home underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. In fact, the Rockets are a perfect 8-0 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rockets and the UNDER in Game 3 Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Cubs/Marlins UNDER 7.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this National League showdown between Chicago and Miami. These are two of the most underrated starters in the league, and they'll be up against two of the worst lineups in the league.

Travis Wood is off to an excellent start for Chicago. He's 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.038 WHIP through four starts this season. Alex Sanabia is 2-2 with a 5.09 ERA this season, but he's faced some very tough opponents in Cincinnati, Atlanta, Washington and New York.

The Cubs are hitting .226 and scoring 3.3 runs/game, including .198 and 2.5 runs/game on the road this season. The Marlins are hitting .220 and scoring 2.6 runs/game, .180 and 2.1 runs/game on the road, and .202 and 1.2 runs/game against left-handed starters this year.

This play falls into a system that is 46-11 (80.7%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (MIAMI) - with a team on base percentage .300 or worse on the season (NL), playing on Saturday. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Nuggets/Warriors ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver +1

The Denver Nuggets are showing solid value as a pick 'em tonight against the Golden State Warriors. After losing Game 2 in upset fashion, I look for the Nuggets to come out extra motivated tonight in Game 3 to regain home-court advantage for the series.

Golden State shot out of its mind in Game 2, and that's not going to happen again. It can play well one game without second-leading scorer David Lee, but it will not happen two games in a row.

That's especially the case considering Stephen Curry is banged up right now after twisting his ankle in Game 2. While Curry is listed as probable, there's no question he will not be at 100%. This guy has had chronic ankle problems throughout his career.

Denver is 19-4 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season. The Nuggets are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Take the Nuggets Friday.

20* Knicks/Celtics ESPN Game 3 No-Brainer on Boston -2.5

Whatever the Boston Celtics have to give tonight, they will be laying it all on the floor in Game 3. It's do or die for Boston, which can't afford to fall behind 0-3 in this series to the New York Knicks if it wants to continue to play past this round.

That's why I am backing the Celtics tonight knowing they'll be giving 110%, which will be more than enough to cover this generous 2.5-point spread in Game 3. Boston is a resilient team that will not back down under the guidance of Doc Rivers.

Boston is 27-13 at home this season. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. New York is 3-15 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons.

Doc Rivers is 34-17 ATS off a loss against a division rival as the coach of Boston. Rivers is 41-26 ATS when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent as the coach of Boston. Mike Woodson is 2-14 ATS in road games in all playoff games in all games he has coached since 1996. Bet the Celtics Thursday.

15* NL Friday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Philadelphia Phillies +114

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing solid value as an underdog to the New York Mets tonight in this NL East rivalry. They should not be a dog given the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Kyle Kendrick is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 1-1 with a 3.28 ERA in four starts this season, including 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA through his lone road start. Dillon Gee is 1-3 with a 5.95 ERA in four starts this season for New York.

Kendrick is 6-5 with a 3.00 ERA in 13 career starts against New York. That's much better than Gee, who is 2-2 with a 7.03 ERA and 1.812 WHIP in six career starts against Philadelphia. Gee allowed 7 earned runs over 3 innings of a 3-8 loss at Philadelphia on April 9th of 2013.

The Mets are 9-22 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in home games after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 7-1 in Kendrick's last 8 starts vs. National League East opponents. Philadelphia is 6-1 in its last 7 meetings with New York. Roll with the Phillies Friday.

15* Clippers/Grizzlies TNT Thursday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 180

The longer a series goes, the more familiar teams become with one another. That makes points harder to come by. I believe there is a ton of value with the UNDER in this Game 3 between Memphis and Los Angeles for a couple different reason.

The most important reason is the fact that this game will be played in Memphis. The home team tends to control the tempo in a playoff series, and no team likes to slow it down and grind it out as much as the Grizzlies.

The first two games in this series went OVER the total with a 112-91 Game 1 win and a 93-91 Game 2 victory by Los Angeles. That has provided us with some line value on the UNDER in Game 3 as the books have not lowered this total like they should have. In fact, it has been set higher than it was in the first two games in LA.

Memphis is 12-1 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The Grizzlies are 10-1 to the UNDER after playing 2 consecutive games as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Memphis. These three trends combine for a 26-2 system backing the UNDER tonight. Take the UNDER in Game 3 Thursday.

20* Nets/Bulls Game 3 No-Brainer on UNDER 181.5

I look for a defensive battle tonight between the Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets in Game 3. As teams become more familiar with each other, points become even harder to come by as a series progresses.

After Chicago beat Brooklyn 90-82 in Game 2 for 172 combined points, I don't look for these teams to combine to exceed even that number tonight. I don't expect either team to get to 90 points in this one.

This play falls into a system that is 32-10 (76.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHICAGO) - in a playoff series which is tied, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

Brooklyn is 18-6 to the UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season. Chicago is 12-4 to the UNDER when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this season. The UNDER is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Chicago. Bet the UNDER in Game 3 Thursday.

15* NL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -133

The Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a victory tonight as they take on the Cincinnati Reds. They enter this game on a 4-game losing streak, so there's no question they'll be playing with a chip on their shoulder.

While the numbers haven't reflected it in the early going, there's absolutely no question that Gio Gonzalez is a much better starter than Bronson Arroyo. He's being undervalued right now because of his slow start.

I look for Gonzalez to get back on track tonight against a team that he has simply owned in the past. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 0.842 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati, allowing just 2 earned runs and 16 base runners over 19 innings.

The Nationals are 11-1 in Gonzalez's last 12 starts vs. National League Central opponents. Gonzalez is 49-19 (+23.6 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher since 1997. The Reds are 1-6 in Arroyo's last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Cincinnati is 0-5 in its last 5 road games. Roll with the Nationals Thursday.

20* NBA Wednesday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Pacers UNDER 188

The books have overcompensated for a high-scoring Game 1 between Atlanta and Indiana. The Pacers beat the Hawks 107-90 for 197 combined points in a game that had the total set at 185.5 as the closing line.

Now, the books have jacked this total up a couple points to 188, and I find a ton of value in backing the under. With their playoff lives at stake, I look for a much better effort defensively from the Hawks as they try to steal Game 2 after giving up 50% shooting and 107 points in Game 1.

Indiana always brings it defensively, and that will be the case once again in Game 2 after limiting the Hawks to 44.9% shooting and 90 points in Game 1. The Pacers only yield 41.4% shooting and 89.9 points/game at home this season.

This play falls into a system that is 34-13 (72.3%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (INDIANA) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.

Atlanta is 75-48 to the UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Hawks are 21-6 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -121

Rarely will you ever get Roy Halladay as this small of a home favorite. Halladay is being undervalued right now due to a slow start to the season, but he has clearly turned it around, and I look for him to mow down this weak Pittsburgh Pirates' line-up en route to victory tonight.

After yielding 7 runs in his first outing, Halladay has really dominated in his last two. He has gone 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in wins over St. Louis and Miami, allowing just 3 earned runs and 10 base runners over 15 innings. Halladay is back folks.

Halladay has simply owned Pittsburgh, going 4-1 with a 0.98 ERA and 0.804 WHIP in six career starts against the Pirates. Wandy Rodriquez is 2-2 with a 4.70 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia. He gave up 7 earned runs in 4 innings in his last start against the Phillies.

Halladay is 25-7 (+16.7 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997. The Pirates are 87-184 in their last 271 games as a road underdog. Philadelphia is 54-25 in Halladay's last 79 starts, including 30-12 in his last 42 home starts. Take the Phillies Wednesday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas City Royals +169

The Detroit Tigers have no business being this heavily-favored against the AL Central-leading Kansas City Royals Wednesday. This line just goes to show how underrated the Royals really are this season.

When you consider how well Wade Davis has pitched this season and against Detroit, there's no question that the Royals should be the favorite in this match-up tonight.

Davis is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA over three starts this season. He hasn't allowed a single earned run over 12 innings in his last two starts. Davis has posted a 2.86 ERA in three career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers are 0-7 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. Kansas City is a very profitable 13-8 (+12.7 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Royals Wednesday.

15* Warriors/Nuggets TNT Tuesday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 207.5

The Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets will play part in a defensive battle Tuesday in Game 2. I look for this game to take on a similar combined score as Game 1, which saw 192 combined points in a 97-95 home victory by Denver.

Golden State has lost David Lee for the rest of the playoffs to a hip injury. That hurts them a lot more offensively than it does defensively as Lee is a huge weapon on offense. He is second on the team in scoring at 18.5 points/game while shooting 51.9 percent from the field.

Lee's absence means guys like Andrew Bogut, Festus Ezeli and Draymond Green are going to have to play bigger minutes. All three of these guys are known as elite defenders and sub-par offensive players.

Denver is having to rely a lot more on defense with the loss of second-leading scorer Danilo Gallinari (16.2 PPG) due to a season-ending ankle injury. Also, Kenneth Faried is expected to return for Game 2 after missing Game 1, and his rebounding will be huge for the Nuggets defensively.

This play falls into a system that is 70-28 (71.4%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team. Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* Rangers/Angels AL Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles +105

The Los Angeles Angels should not be an underdog at home tonight to the Texas Rangers. They'll be motivated to bounce back from a tough 7-6 loss to Texas last night in Game 1 of this series.

Los Angeles is certainly a team that is undervalued right now after a slow start to the season at 7-11. That can be said for starter Jason Vargas, who is much better than his numbers would indicate, as well.

Texas comes in overvalued due to its 13-6 start to the season and its current 4-game winning streak. The same can be said for starter Alexi Ogando, who is off to a fast start this season but won't be able to post these numbers over an entire year.

This play falls into a system that is 53-26 (67.1%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (LA ANGELS) - revenging a one run loss to opponent, off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite. Bet the Angels Tuesday.

25* NBA Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Boston Celtics +6.5

In Game 2 against the New York Knicks Tuesday, the Boston Celtics represent my strongest side for the entire first round of the NBA Playoffs. I fully expect them to win this game outright, but I'm taking the points for some insurance.

Like the Bulls who won their Game 2 against Brooklyn on the road, the Celtics are one of the most resilient teams in the league. They are a reflection of head coach Doc Rivers, who like Tom Thibodeau, is one of the most competitive coaches in the league.

Boston simply gave away Game 1 with turnovers in an 85-78 loss to New York. I look for it to learn from its mistakes, and for its defense to be rock-solid once again as it always is in the playoffs. Rivers and company will make the proper adjustments in Game 2.

This play falls into a system that is 27-8 (77.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (BOSTON) - off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days.

Boston is 13-2 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. The Celtics are 23-9 ATS in road games off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 80 points since 1996. Rivers is 34-18 ATS in road games when playing with 2 days rest as the coach of Boston. The Celtics are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The Knicks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 Conference Quarterfinals games. Bet the Celtics Tuesday.

15* MLB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +157

The Houston Astros should not be this big of a home underdog to the Seattle Mariners. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price Monday night.

Not many bettors have even heard of Houston's Brad Peacock, which is why he continues to go under the radar, getting disrespected from oddsmakers. While he has only made five career starts and one relief appearance in his career, Peacock has gone 3-1 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.208 WHIP over 25 2/3 innings.

Felix Hernandez gets too much respect from oddsmakers. While he has posted good numbers throughout his career, Hernandez has just a 55.9 winning percentage because he has been on some bad teams. He is on another bad team in 2013.

This play falls into a system that is 37-13 (74%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (SEATTLE) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a below avg. bullpen (ERA>=4.50), after allowing 10 runs or more.

Seattle is 17-40 (-20.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 3 seasons. Hernandez is 4-14 (-12.3 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 over the last 2 seasons. Take the Astros Monday.

20* Bulls/Nets TNT Monday No-Brainer on Chicago +5

The Chicago Bulls are showing great value as a 5-point underdog to the Brooklyn Nets Monday. After getting blown out in Game 1, I look for the Bulls to bounce back with an outright victory in Game 2, but I'll take the points for some insurance.

I believe Brooklyn's 106-89 Game 1 victory was simply an aberration. Chicago had won three of the four meetings during the regular season. Its only loss was a 4-point setback at Brooklyn.

The Bulls have been one of the most resilient teams in the league ever since Tom Thibodeau took over as head coach. Thibodeau is 50-31 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses as the coach of Chicago.

P.J. Carlesimo hasn't been the best motivator following a blowout win throughout his coaching career. Carlesimo is in home games after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half in all games he has coached since 1996. His teams are losing 89.2 to 96.2 on average in this spot. Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* NL West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego Padres +130

The San Diego Padres get the call Sunday as a nice-sized road underdog to the San Francisco Giants. After losing the first two games of this series, the Padres are hungry for a victory in Game 3.

I like their chances of picking up a win with Eric Stults on the mound. Stults is 2-1 with a 3.94 ERA through three starts this season. Barry Zito is overvalued here, and he's 2-1 with a 4.86 ERA on the year.

Stults is 9-3 (+9.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Stults is 8-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest since 1997. Roll with the Padres Sunday.

20* Lakers/Spurs ABC Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 192.5

The books have set the bar way too high in this game between the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs. I'll gladly take advantage by backing the UNDER in Game 1 in what will be a low-scoring, defensive battle.

Los Angeles' scheme has changed completely since losing Kobe Bryant for the season. They now have to slow the game down and run their offense through big men Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol, which is something they probably should have been doing more of all season.

The results have been absolutely stunning. They are playing better as a team, especially defensively as their opponents get less possessions. The Lakers beat the Spurs 91-86 on April 14th in their first game without Kobe for 177 combined points. They came back with a 99-95 (OT) victory over the high-scoring Houston Rockets on April 17th in a game that was tied 90-90 at the end of regulation for 180 combined points.

This play falls into a system that is 76-36 (67.9%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, on Sunday games.

San Antonio is 7-0 to the UNDER versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 Sunday games, 3-0-2 in their last 5 games when playing on 3 or more days rest, and 4-0 in their last 4 Conference Quarterfinal games. These four trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the UNDER. Also, the UNDER is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in this series. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

Note - I locked this play in as soon as the lines came out on Thursday. It has already dropped a couple points. I still recommend the UNDER as a 20* play at anything 189 or above. Anything less it drops to a 15* play.

15* NL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs +127

After losing the first two games of this series to Milwaukee, I look for the Chicago Cubs to take Game 3 and salvage it.

I like the Cubs' chances of doing some damage against Brewers' starter Wily Peralta. He is 0-1 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.687 WHIP over three starts this season.

Milwaukee is 12-22 (-15.5 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the Cubs Sunday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +140

The Minnesota Twins are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Chicago White Sox Sunday. They come in having won three straight and playing with a lot of confidence because of it.

Gavin Floyd has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers. Floyd is 0-3 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.852 WHIP through three starts this season, and 6-11 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.586 WHIP in 18 career starts against Minnesota.

Minnesota is 7-1 (+9.2 Units) against the money line after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 2 seasons. Floyd is 28-48 (-25.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 since 1997. Take the Twins Sunday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +130

The New York Mets are highly motivated to beat the 2012 NL East champion Washington Nationals in this series. I look for them to take Game 3 and take the series Sunday.

Dillon Gee is 3-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in six career starts against Washington. This is certainly one team he enjoys facing.

Washington is 6-28 (-19.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a game they hit 4 or more home runs since 1997. Bet the Mets Sunday.

15* AL East PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Yankees +135

Rarely will you ever get the New York Yankees as this big of an underdog against anyone. I'll take full advantage Sunday and back them as they look to improve to 11-6 with a victory Sunday.

Josh Johnson has no business being this heavily favored Sunday. The right-hander is 0-1 with a 6.91 ERA and 1.814 WHIP through three starts this season. Ivan Nova is 3-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six career starts against Toronto.

The Blue Jays are 6-23 (-17.0 Units) against the money line vs. terrible speed teams - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. Toronto is 1-7 (-9.1 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Bet the Yankees Sunday.

15* Hawks/Pacers TNT Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Indiana -6.5

I look for the Indiana Pacers to roll to a blowout victory over the Atlanta Hawks in Game 1 of this series Sunday. The Pacers are the most underrated team heading into the 2013 playoffs, and I believe they have the best shot of beating the Miami Heat down the road.

Their run to the Eastern Conference Finals starts with this Game 1 against the hapless Atlanta Hawks, who stumbled into the playoffs losing five of their final seven games. A big reason for their struggles have been injuries to Josh Smith (knee) and Al Horford (shoulder), who are their two best players. While each is expected to give it a go in Game 1, neither will be at 100%.

Indiana has done an excellent job of protecting its home court all season. It is 30-11 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by an average of 7.7 points/game. One look at the recent history in this series and it's easy to see that home-court advantage is huge.

The home team has won nine of the last 10 meetings in this series between Atlanta and Indiana dating back to 2010. The Pacers won both home meetings this season with a 114-103 victory on February 5th, and a 100-94 triumph on March 25th. The home team is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Take the Pacers Sunday.

15* Bulls/Nets ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Chicago +5

The Chicago Bulls are finally getting healthy heading into the 2013 NBA playoffs. Sure, they're still missing Derrick Rose, but they have been used to that for over a year now. The key is getting Noah, Gibson, Hamilton and company healthy.

When they are healthy aside from Rose, the Bulls are capable of beating anyone in the league. I look for them to go into Brooklyn and steal Game 1 Saturday, which is the easiest game for an underdog to win in any series.

Chicago clearly matches up well with Brooklyn given their season history. The Bulls went 3-1 in their four meetings with the Nets with their only loss coming by a final of 89-93 on February 1st in Brooklyn. They have now won seven of the last nine meetings in this series dating back to 2011.

The Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Chicago is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings in Brooklyn. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games. These four trends combine for an 18-1 (95%) system backing Chicago. Roll with the Bulls Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +140

We're getting a great price on the New York Mets once again Saturday. This is one of the most underrated teams in the league, off to an 8-7 start this season.

The Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Mets are 11-3 in their last 14 home games. The price is right, and we'll back the Mets today because of it. Bet New York Saturday.

25* NBA Opening Round TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Celtics/Knicks UNDER 193.5

The books have set the bar too high in this Game 1 showdown between the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks. These two Eastern Conference rivals will play part in a defensive battle today in New York.

Playoff basketball brings out the best intensity defensively in most teams, especially these two. New York is expected to get several of its top defenders back for the playoffs in Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby. That will make this team a lot harder to score against.

These are two of the better defensive teams in the league. New York allows just 95.7 points/game overall and 94.0 points/game at home. Both of those numbers will go down now that they are healthy. Boston yields 96.7 points/game overall while scoring just 94.6 points/game on the road.

All four meetings between these teams this season have seen less than 200 combined points. Considering they have played four times already this year, they are obviously very familiar with one another. Familiarity breeds low-scoring games.

New York is 8-0 to the UNDER in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Knicks are combining with their opponents to average 183.6 points/game in this spot. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

Note - I locked this play in right when the lines came out on Thursday. I can see this total is already dropping. I still recommend a bet on the UNDER as a 25* play at 190 or more. Anything less makes it a 20* play for you.

15* Celtics/Knicks ABC Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Boston +7.5

The Boston Celtics are showing tremendous value as a big road underdog to the New York Knicks in Game 1 of this series Saturday. Remember, this is a Boston team that took Miami to a Game 7 in the Eastern Conference Finals last year.

What I'm saying is that Doc Rivers always has his teams playing their best basketball in the playoffs. That's why he is one of the best head coaches in the league, and I look for him to have the Celtics hitting on all Cylinders in Game 1 Saturday.

New York is being overvalued here due to earning the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, and due to beating the Celtics each of the last three times these teams met in the regular season. That will only add fuel to Boston's fire as they want revenge. The easiest game for an underdog to steal is Game 1 of a series.

The Knicks have won exactly ONE playoff game over the past 11 seasons. Carmelo Anthony has a 17-37 career playoff record, which is one of the worst marks for any individual player in NBA history. Yet, the team continues to get so much respect from oddsmakers.

Boston is 12-2 ATS off a road loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. It is coming back to win in this spot by a whopping 11.0 points/game. The Celtics are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take the Celtics Saturday.

15* NL Friday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego Padres +216

The San Diego Padres are showing excellent value as more than a 2-to-1 underdog to the San Francisco Giants tonight. This is one of the most underrated teams in the league, while San Francisco is overvalued coming off its World Series title.

San Diego just swept a 3-game series in Los Angeles despite being a +155, +165 and +230 underdog in all three games, respectively. It not only won that series, it dominated it by outscoring the Dodgers 22-7 in the process.

Edinson Volquez has allowed two runs or less in each of his last three starts against San Francisco, giving up 6 runs over 17 innings. Madison Bumgarner has allowed 14 runs over 22 2/3 innings in his last four starts against San Diego. As you can see, the recent head-to-head history favors Volquez.

The Padres are feeling great after their sweep of the Dodgers, and they tend to keep playing well in this spot. San Diego is 10-1 (+13.5 Units) against the money line off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Padres Friday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona Diamondbacks +122

The price is right on the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight as a road underdog to the Colorado Rockies. I'll take advantage and back the Diamondbacks in a game that they have the edge on the mound in.

Colorado comes in overvalued due to its current 6-game winning streak which has come against the likes of the San Diego Padres and New York Mets. It should not be this heavily favored tonight.

Ian Kennedy has been the better starter throughout his career over Jhoulys Chacin. He also loves facing the Rockies, going 3-2 with a 2.71 ERA in 12 career starts. His teams are 9-3 in those 12 outings against Colorado.

Kennedy is 24-6 (+17.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in Kennedy's last 5 road starts. The Rockies are 1-10 in Chacin's last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Diamondbacks Friday.

15* AL Friday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle Mariners +190

The Seattle Mariners get the nod Friday as nearly a 2-to-1 underdog to the Texas Rangers. This price is simply too good to pass up tonight folks as this is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate.

Joe Saunders is one of the most underrated starters in the league. He has gone 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA in three starts this season. He has gone 13 1/3 innings over his last two starts without allowing a single earned run. One of those starts came against Texas as he continued his dominance against them. Saunders has allowed just 2 earned runs over 19 2/3 innings in his last three starts against the Rangers for a miniscule 0.92 ERA.

There's no question that Yu Darvish is a good starter, but he's being overvalued here. That's especially the case when you consider how poorly he has pitched against the Mariners in the past. Darvish is 2-3 with a 6.21 ERA in five career starts against Seattle, allowing 20 earned runs over 29 innings. Given these numbers, you would think the Mariners were the team that was laying nearly 2-to-1 odds.

Saunders is a very profitable 16-5 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. Bet the Mariners Friday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on New York Mets +114

Many public bettors are going to jump all over Stephen Strasburg and the Washington Nationals as a small road favorite over the New York Mets tonight. In the worst of Lee Corso, not so fast my friends.

New York will be giving the ball to Matt Harvey, who is one of the most underrated starters in the league. After getting swept by Colorado in their last series, I look for the Mets to come out hungry in Game 1 tonight and to get the win behind Harvey.

The young right-hander is 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.545 WHIP through three starts this season. He has allowed just two earned runs and 12 base runners while striking out 25 batters over 22 innings. He'll be extra motivated to take down Strasburg tonight.

The Nationals are 0-7 in their last 7 Friday games. Washington is 2-6 in Strasburg's last 8 starts during game 1 of a series. The Mets are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a right-handed starter. New York is 10-3 in its last 13 home games overall. Take the Mets Friday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Rays -121

Rarely will you ever get 2012 AL Cy Young winner David Price at this kind of price all season. I'm going to take full advantage and back him and the Rays to beat the Baltimore Orioles in the Game 3 grudge match tonight.

The left-hander is undervalued due to a slow start this season. Price was rocked by Cleveland before refocusing in his last start, allowing just one earned runs over 6 innings while striking out 8 in a 1-2 loss at Boston.

Price is 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in 13 career starts against Baltimore. In his last five starts against the Orioles, Price has allowed just 4 earned runs in 35 innings for a miniscule 1.03 ERA.

Price is 20-5 (+13.2 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997. Tampa Bay is 20-5 (+15.7 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. The Rays are 26-8 in Price's last 34 starts as a road favorite. Bet Tampa Bay Thursday.

15* NL Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves -120

The Atlanta Braves have been the best team in the big leagues through the first two weeks of the season. I'll gladly back them at this price against the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight as they continue to roll.

Atlanta's top pitching prospect, Julio Teheran, had one of the best springs of any starting pitcher in the league. He went 3-1 with a 1.04 ERA while striking out 35 batters in 26 innings. After a slow start to the regular season, he is being undervalued here.

There's no question that Teheran is the better starter on the mound tonight, and that will show by game's end. Pittsburgh's Jeff Locke is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.545 WHIP through two starts this season, so it's not like he's been mowing down everyone, either.

This play falls into a system that is 35-8 (81.4%) since 1997. It tells us to bet against home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - poor fielding team - turning 0.8 or less DP's/game on the season., after a game where they had at least 10 more hits than their opponent. Take the Braves Thursday.

15* AL Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Rays/Orioles UNDER 7.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. While I believe the Rays have the edge on the mound and will win this game, I look for them to do it in a low-scoring contest because Baltimore also has a solid starter going.

2012 AL Cy Young winner David Price got off to a slow start this season against Cleveland, but he bounced back by allowing just one earned run over 6 innings in a 1-2 loss at Boston last time out. Price is 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 1.076 WHIP in 13 career starts against Baltimore. He has allowed just 4 earned runs over 35 innings for a 1.03 ERA in his last five starts against the Orioles.

While Miguel Gonzalez is no match for Price, he's certainly one of the more underrated starters in the league. Gonzalez has gone 1-1 with a 2.92 ERA through his first two starts this season after going 9-4 with a 3.25 ERA in 15 starts and three relief appearances for Baltimore last season. He is also 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA in five career starts against Tampa Bay.

The Rays are 50-24 UNDER (+22.7 Units) vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons. Baltimore is 31-16 UNDER (+12.4 Units) after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The UNDER is 6-0-1 in Rays last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The UNDER is 32-14-5 in Rays last 51 road games vs. a right-handed starter. The UNDER is 11-3 in Gonzalez's last 14 starts overall. Roll with the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* NBA DOG OF THE MONTH on Detroit Pistons +5.5

I'm fading the Brooklyn Nets once again tonight because they have nothing to play for as they are already locked into the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. I did so with success Monday as the Wizards +6 covered at Brooklyn.

The Nets rested Deron Williams, Brooke Lopez and Reggie Evans in that game against Washington. It would be foolish for them to play any of their starters in this one as the most important thing is to be healthy going into the playoffs.

It doesn't matter who the Nets put on the floor in this one. Whoever is out there will be looking ahead to the playoffs and not interested at all in beating the Pistons. Detroit, meanwhile, wants to win this game knowing it will be its last contest of the season.

The Pistons have been playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch, too. They have won four straight coming in, and they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall. All three of their outright losses during this span have come by 6 points or less. Bet the Pistons Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Charlotte Bobcats -2.5

The Charlotte Bobcats (20-61) are tied with the Orlando Magic for the worst record in the league. As most of you remember, they set an NBA record for futility last season by winning the lowest percentage of games in a season in NBA history.

Charlotte doesn't want to be known as the worst team in the league for a second straight season, so it will be laying it all on the line to get a victory tonight. It has been playing well down the stretch, especially at home.

The Bobcats have won seven of their last nine home games following back-to-back wins over Milwaukee and New York. Cleveland has clearly packed it in, losing five straight and 15 of its last 17 games overall coming in.

Cleveland is 5-15 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season. The Cavaliers are 5-15 ATS after a close loss by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is 15-29 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Bobcats Wednesday.

15* NBA Western Conference PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Timberwolves +9

The San Antonio Spurs have no business being a 9-point favorite over the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. San Antonio has absolutely nothing to play for as it is locked into the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference.

The Spurs rested Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Kawhi Leonard in a 96-106 loss at Golden State on Monday. While all three of these players are listed as probable to play tonight, it's only because Greg Popovich wants to make sure they aren't rusty heading into the playoffs.

San Antonio won't be thinking about beating Minnesota tonight, let alone beating it by double-digits, which is what it would take to cover this massive spread. The Timberwolves realize this is their final game of the season, and I look for them to lay it all on the line because of it.

Minnesota is 25-14 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. San Antonio is just 12-21 ATS in the second half of the season this season. Take the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* Jazz/Grizzlies ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 180.5

With something at stake for both Utah and Memphis, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight. Utah needs a win and a Lakers' loss to make the playoffs, while Memphis need a win and a Clippers' loss to earn home-court advantage in the Western Conference.

Playing at home, Memphis will control the tempo in this one, which has been at a snail's pace of late. The UNDER is 7-1 in the Grizzlies' last 8 games overall with combined scores of 182, 170, 170, 176, 179, 160, 178 and 200 points.

I look for this game to be played a similar pace as the last time these teams met up on March 16th about a month ago. Memphis won 90-84 at home for 174 combined points. Baskets will be hard to come by with the kind of effort each team will be giving defensively with what's at stake.

Memphis is 26-9 to the UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is 20-7 to the UNDER after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Utah is 20-9 to the UNDER after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Miami Heat have nothing to play for as they have already clinched the No. 1 seed in the East and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. I'll gladly fade them when they shouldn't even be favored against Orlando tonight given the scenario.

Lebron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade are all doubtful heading into this one. Ray Allen, Udonis Haslem and Shane Battier are questionable. All Miami is concerned about is getting healthy for its opening round match-up with Milwaukee, not beating Orlando tonight.

I look for the Magic to lay it all on the line in this game. It will be their final game of the season, and they want to beat their in-state rivals. Even more, they are tied with the Charlotte Bobcats at 20-61 on the season for the league's worst record. They don't want to be known as the worst team in the league.

This play falls into a system that is 69-28 (71.1%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams (ORLANDO) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games against opponent hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* National League PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies +128

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value as an underdog to the Cincinnati Reds tonight. Philadelphia should not be the dog considering the edge they have on the mound in this one.

John Lannan is one of the most underrated starters in the game. The Phillies were wise to get him this offseason, adding him to what is arguably the best rotation in baseball. Lannan has not disappointed in the early going, posting a 2.77 ERA and 0.962 WHIP through two starts.

Homer Bailey has posted a 6.75 ERA and 1.833 WHIP through two starts for the Reds this season. Bailey has NEVER BEATEN the Phillies, going 0-3 (0-5 against the money line) with a 9.34 ERA and 1.630 WHIP in five career starts against them. Bet the Phillies Wednesday.

15* American League PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -110

The Tampa Bay Rays are highly motivated for a victory Wednesday as they look to put an end to a 4-game losing streak with three of those losses coming by exactly one run. I like their chances given the edge they have on the mound over the Baltimore Orioles in this one.

Matt Moore is one of the best young starters in the game. He's off to a 2-0 start with a 0.00 ERA and 0.971 WHIP while not allowing a single run over 11 2/3 innings in wins over the Rangers and Indians. Moore is 2-2 with a miniscule 1.83 ERA in four career starts against Baltimore.

Chris Tillman is clearly overmatched in this one. The right-hander has posted a 7.00 ERA and 2.11 WHIP in two starts this season while allowing 7 runs and 19 base runners over 9 innings in games against Boston and Minnesota. Tillman is 1-3 with a 4.78 ERA in seven career starts against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay is a very profitable 19-5 (+14.7 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the Rays Wednesday.

15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +200

The Houston Astros are showing excellent value as a 2-to-1 underdog to the Oakland A's tonight. Houston comes in hungry for a victory after dropping its last three. Oakland is overvalued due to its 10-4 start to the season.

Brad Peacock is one of the most underrated starters in the league because not many bettors have even heard of him. This guy has dominated in limited action, going 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA over four starts and one relief appearance in the majors.

This play falls into a system that is 60-53 (53.1%) over the last 5 seasons while profiting $1,000/game players $51,500. It tells us to bet on all underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (HOUSTON) - very bad AL offensive team (<=4.2 runs/game) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA<=3.75), after scoring 2 runs or less. Bet the Astros Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Raptors/Hawks UNDER 197.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks Tuesday night. This is a very important game for Atlanta as it tries to lock up the No. 5 seed in the East. I look for it to be on top of its game defensively because of it.

Toronto has been playing very well of late, winning five of its last six games overall. While it hasn't been hitting on all cylinders offensively, it has been winning because of solid defense. The Raptors are scoring 92.8 points/game and allowing 90.7 points/game in their last six games overall, combining with their opponents to average 183.5 points/game.

My biggest reason for backing the UNDER tonight is the recent head-to-head history between these teams. The Raptors and Hawks have combined for 196 or less points in each of their last seven meetings dating back to 2011. They have combined to average 186.4 points/game over this span.

This play falls into a system that is 32-9 (78%) to the UNDER since 1996. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (TORONTO) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 105 points or more 2 straight games. Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Philadelphia Phillies +142

The Cincinnati Reds have no business being this heavily favored tonight over the Philadelphia Phillies. That's especially the case considering the Phillies have the edge on the mound in this one.

Kyle Kendrick is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts this season and 3-2 with a 5.09 ERA in six career starts against Cincinnati. Sure, those numbers won't blow you away, but when you compare them to Cincinnati's Homer Bailey, they are better. Bailey is 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts this season, and 0-3 with a 5.29 ERA in six career starts against Philadelphia.

Kendrick is a very profitable 31-13 (+17.8 Units) against the money line when working on 5 or 6 days rest since 1997. The Phillies are 6-1 in Kendrick's last 7 starts as an underdog. Philadelphia is 10-4 in its last 14 games as an underdog. The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take the Phillies Tuesday.

15* Royals/Braves Interleague No-Brainer on Kansas City +170

The Kansas City Royals are showing their best value of the season Tuesday night as a huge road underdog to the Atlanta Braves. I'll gladly take advantage and back these improved Royals, who are off to a solid 7-5 start this season.

Atlanta comes in way overvalued due to its 11-1 start, which includes a 9-game winning streak coming in. The Braves just swept 2012 NL East champ Washington last series in three games, setting them up for a huge letdown spot heading into Game 1 of this series with Kansas City.

Jeremy Guthrie may be the most underrated starter in the entire league. The right-hander is picking up right where he left off last season, going 2-0 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.026 WHIP through his first two starts this year. Guthrie is 7-0 with a 2.37 ERA over his last 13 starts, of which Kansas City has won 12. That makes for a 12-1 (92%) system backing Gurthrie and the Royals tonight. Take Kansas City Tuesday.

15* AL Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Red Sox/Indians OVER 8.5

The books have set the bar too low in this game between the Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians tonight. I look for a slug fest as both starting pitchers are below-average in this league to say the least.

Boston's Felix Doubront has posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in one start this season, and he's 1-1 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.355 WHIP in two career starts against the Indians.

Cleveland's Ubaldo Jimenez remains terrible, going 0-1 with a 6.97 ERA and 1.452 WHIP in two starts this season. The right-hander is 1-2 with a massive 7.84 ERA and 1.984 WHIP in four career starts against the Red Sox.

Doubront is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. Cleveland is 15-4 OVER (+10.8 Units) after scoring 1 or less runs in a loss to a division rival over the last 3 seasons. Jimenez is 20-9 OVER (+10.6 Units) when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. Roll with the OVER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Phoenix Suns +7

The Phoenix Suns want revenge from a 98-101 road loss as a 14.5-point underdog to the Houston Rockets on April 9th less than a week ago. Jermaine O'Neal was called for goaltending at the buzzer on a questionable call.

Houston has little to play for right now as it is guaranteed to be either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the Western Conference. I have a hard time seeing the Rockets being motivated enough to beat a team they just beat less than a week ago by more than 7 points tonight.

Phoenix comes in the fresher team as well. The Suns will be playing just their 2nd game in 5 days, while the Rockets will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days after beating the Sacramento Kings at home last night.

The Rockets are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Houston is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Rockets are 9-19 ATS in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Suns Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington Wizards +6

The Washington Wizards get the nod Monday as a road underdog to the Brooklyn Nets in a game I fully expect them to win outright. I'm only taking the points for some added insurance in this one folks.

The Wizards have been one of the most underrated teams in the league all season. That's evident by the fact that they are 45-34-1 ATS in all games this year. Off four straight losses with three coming against playoff contenders, the Wizards will be hungry for a win tonight.

Brooklyn has no reason to even be motivated to play this game Monday. That's because it has already wrapped up the No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. It is locked into the No. 4 seed as it cannot move up or down.

Making sure they're fresh for the playoffs is a much bigger priority. Deron Williams is one of several players who could be rested tonight against the Wizards, so I have no doubt that the Wizards will be putting the more talented team on the floor.

Plus, Washington will be the much fresher team as it will be playing on two days' rest having last played on Friday in a loss to Philadelphia. Brooklyn will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days following an 87-93 loss at Toronto Sunday.

The Wizards are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Nets are 17-35-2 ATS in their last 54 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Brooklyn is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games. Take the Wizards Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Pistons -3

The Detroit Pistons will run away with a victory tonight at home over the Philadelphia 76ers. I like how the Pistons are playing down the stretch as they clearly are not packing it in just yet. They are playing out their season.

That's evident by the fact that the Pistons are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They have also won three straight coming in with victories over the Bulls, Cavs and Bobcats by a combined 41 points.

Detroit comes in well-rested on two days' rest having last played on Friday in a 113-93 home victory over the Charlotte Bobcats. Philadelphia is a tired team as it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 5th game in 7 days after a 91-77 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.

The 76ers are 8-24 ATS in their last 32 games playing on 0 days rest. Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Pistons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Roll with Detroit Monday.

15* Phillies/Reds ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Philadelphia Phillies -118

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value as a small road favorite over the Cincinnati Reds Monday. They should be a much heavier favorite considering the edge they have on the mound in this one.

Cliff Lee remains one of the best starters in baseball, and he's proving it once again in 2013. Lee is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA and 0.600 WHIP through two starts this season. He has allowed just two earned runs and 10 base runners over 16 2/3 innings in wins over the Braves and Mets.

Bronson Arroyo is not off to the best start this year, going 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA while allowing seven earned runs over 12 innings. This is one team he hates facing as Arroyo is 2-7 with a 6.33 ERA in 11 career starts against Philadelphia. Lee has allowed two earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in his last two starts against Cincinnati.

The Phillies are 35-17 in their last 52 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Phillies are 14-5 in Lee's last 19 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Reds are 0-5 in their last 5 overall. Cincinnati is 5-11 in its last 16 games as a home underdog. Philadelphia is 38-15 in the last 53 meetings, including 20-8 in its last 28 meetings in Cincinnati. Take the Phillies Monday.

15* NBA Eastern Conference ANNIHILATOR on Charlotte Bobcats -1

The Charlotte Bobcats are showing solid value at home against the New York Knicks tonight. The Knicks are in a huge letdown spot in this one, and I don't even expect them to show up as a result.

New York is surely going to rest several of its key players after clinching the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 90-80 home victory over the Indiana Pacers Sunday. Now, it will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 4th game in 5 days short-handed.

Carmelo Anthony is expected to rest. New York - still without big men Tyson Chandler, Kenyon Martin, Amare Stoudemire, Rasheed Wallace and Marcus Camby - is ready to get some rest.

The Bobcats have lost 14 straight and 21 of 22 on the road, but they're playing well at home toward season's end. Charlotte beat Milwaukee 95-85 on Saturday for its sixth win in eight games at Time Warner Cable Arena. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic opponents. Bet Charlotte Monday.

20* Spurs/Lakers NBA Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 196.5

The books have set the bar too high in this game between the Los Angeles Lakers and San Antonio Spurs. Both teams have a lot to play for, and I look for a defensive battle because of it.

Los Angeles is fighting to make the playoffs as the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. San Antonio is battling it out with Oklahoma City for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference.

This play falls into a system that is 75-35 (68.2%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, on Sunday games. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Orioles/Yankees ESPN Sunday Night BAILOUT on New York -115

The New York Yankees are showing excellent value as a small home favorite over the Baltimore Orioles Sunday night. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at home behind the underrated Hiroki Kuroda.

Kuroda went 16-11 with a 3.32 ERA over 33 starts with the Yankees last season. The reason he's underrated is the fact that he is off to a slow start this season, but I have no doubt he'll get back on track against the Orioles tonight.

Kuroda is 1-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.803 WHIP in three career starts against Baltimore. Kuroda is 17-4 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Roll with the Yankees Sunday.

15* Knicks/Pacers NBA Sunday No-Brainer on UNDER 194

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers. This is a huge game in the Eastern Conference as both teams are fighting to earn that coveted No. 2 seed in the East to get home-court advantage through the first two rounds of the playoffs.

This play falls into a system that is 130-67 (66%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (INDIANA) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, on Sunday games. Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Los Angeles Dodgers +112

After dropping Game 1 of this series to the Arizona Diamondbacks, I look for the Los Angeles Dodgers to bounce back with a victory in Game 2 Saturday. I really like their chances with the underrated Hyun-Jin Ryu on the mound tonight.

Most bettors aren't familiar with Ryu because he is making his MLB debut this season, but he's a lot better starter than he gets credit for. Ryu is already proving that, going 1-1 with a 2.13 ERA and 1.185 WHIP over two starts, allowing just three earned runs in 12 2/3 innings.

The Dodgers are 25-7 in their last 32 Saturday games. Los Angeles is 8-1 in its last 9 games following a loss. The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Dodgers Saturday.

15* Clippers/Grizzlies NBA Saturday No-Brainer on Memphis -3

The Memphis Grizzlies sit at 54-25 on the season, yet they would be just the No. 5 seed in the West if the season were to end today. However, they are tied with the Nuggets at 54-25 for the No. 3 seed, but Denver owns the tiebreaker.

With home-court advantage in the first round on the line, the Grizzlies are taking this game more seriously than the Los Angeles Clippers, who already have home-court advantage in the first round locked up after winning the Pacific Division.

Memphis has saved its best basketball for last. It is 7-1 in its last eight games overall with its only loss coming on the road to the Los Angeles Lakers by a mere two points (86-84).

Getting home-court advantage in the first round is huge considering that the Grizzlies are 31-8 at home this season. The Clippers are a mediocre 22-17 on the road this season, and they barely beat New Orleans 96-93 last night as a 9-point favorite.

Both teams come in playing the second of a back-to-back. However, Los Angeles will be the more tired team as this will be its 3rd game in 4 days. This will only be the 2nd game in 4 days for the Grizzlies, who had two days' rest coming into last night's 82-78 road victory at Houston.

Memphis is 40-17 ATS when playing on back-to-back days over the last 3 seasons. The Grizzlies are 26-9 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Clippers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Memphis is 26-10 ATS in its last 36 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the Grizzlies Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Phillies/Mets UNDER 7.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this NL East contest between the Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins. I look for both Cole Hamels and Jose Fernandez to shut down the opposition in an absolute pitcher's duel.

Hamels sports a 3.36 ERA and 1.133 WHIP in 24 career starts against Miami. In his last two starts against the Marlins, Hamels has allowed just one earned run over 16 innings. Fernandez is one of the best young starters in the game, and he doesn't yet get the respect from oddsmakers that he deserves.

The UNDER is 25-9-1 in Hamels' last 35 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Marlins last 8 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The UNDER is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Miami. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* MLB Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Detroit Tigers -117

Rarely will you ever get Justin Verlander at this kind of price. I'll gladly take advantage and back the 2011 AL Cy Young and MVP winner at this discounted rate against the Oakland A's Saturday.

Verlander is off to another solid start in 2013, going 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA and 1.217 WHIP over two starts against the Twins and Yankees. The right-hander simply owns Oakland, going 10-5 with a 2.33 ERA and 1.089 WHIP in 16 career starts.

Verlander has been untouchable in his last five starts against the A's. The right-hander has gone 5-0 with a miniscule 0.49 ERA while allowing just two earned runs over 37 innings in those five outings. Brett Anderson is getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to his solid start, which has come against the lowly Mariners and Astros.

The Tigers are 49-18 in Verlander's last 67 starts as a favorite. The A's are 0-5 in Anderson's last 5 starts as an underdog. The Tigers are 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 starts vs Oakland. Bet the Tigers Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Chicago White Sox -125

The Chicago White Sox are highly motivated for a victory this afternoon against the Cleveland Indians. They have lost four straight coming in, and I look for them to bounce back with a win behind ace Chris Sale today.

Sale remains one of the most underrated starters in the league after despite posting an excellent 2012 campaign. The left-hander is off to a 1-0 start this season, posting a 1.84 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in the process.

Sale is 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.068 WHIP in three career starts against Cleveland. The White Sox are 3-0 against the money line in those three starts having never lost. Sale has allowed just five earned runs over 19 2/3 innings in those three outings. Take the White Sox Saturday.

20* NL West GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -147

The Los Angeles Dodgers should be a much heavier favorite tonight with 2011 NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw on the mound. I'll gladly take advantage and back Kershaw and the Dodgers at this generous price against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

One of the best things that could have happened to the Dodgers last night, happened. This is a team that has brought in a ton of new faces over the last 365 days, so clubhouse chemistry was a concern. They needed to get in a brawl and fight for each other, and that's what happened against the Padres last night. I look for this experience to bring this team closer together going forward, starting tonight.

Kershaw is now 63-37 with a 2.75 ERA for his career after going 14-9 with a 2.53 ERA, and 21-5 with a 2.28 ERA in 2012 and 2011, respectively. Kershaw is off to a tremendous start in 2013, going 2-0 while allowing just seven base runners and no earned runs over 16 innings in victories over the Giants and Pirates. The left-hander is 7-5 with a 2.25 ERA in 14 career starts against Arizona.

The Dodgers are 38-15 in Kershaw's last 53 starts overall. Los Angeles is 21-7 in Kershaw's last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Diamondbacks are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Dodgers Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on T'Wolves/Jazz UNDER 196

This is a very important game for the Utah Jazz tonight as they trail the Los Angeles Lakers by one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. I look for them to be timid offensively, but to be at the top of their game defensively with what's at stake.

In fact, that has appeared to be the case with the Jazz over the last week as they are really feeling the pressure of trying to make the playoffs. Utah's last three games have resulted in an 80-90 loss to the Thunder for 170 combined points, a 97-90 victory at Golden State for 187 combined points, and a 95-83 victory over New Orleans for 178 combined points.

This recent low-scoring trend, plus the head-to-head meetings thus far with the Timberwolves this season, has me backing the UNDER. Utah beat Minnesota 106-84 at home in their first meeting of the season on January 2nd for 190 combined points. The Jazz also won in Minnesota 97-93 on February 13th for 190 combined points.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 10-2 in Jazz last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. The UNDER is 7-1 in Jazz last 8 games following a ATS loss. The UNDER is 16-7 in Jazz last 23 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Western Conference Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Mavericks UNDER 206.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the Denver Nuggets and Dallas Mavericks. Denver is trying to secure the No. 3 seed in the West, while Dallas is trying to reach its goal of getting back to .500 on the season. I look for the defensive intensity to be high from both teams because of these scenarios.

The Nuggets aren't nearly the potent offensive team they were before they lost Ty Lawson and Danilo Gallinari to injury. They've had to rely a lot more on defense of late, giving up just 87, 96, 94, 114 and 86 points in their last five games overall. That 114-point effort was against the Rockets, so it can be thrown out.

Dallas has really been struggling offensively of late, scoring 81, 94, 117, 96 and 91 points in its last five games overall. That 117-point effort was against the Sacramento Kings, so it can really be thrown out as well.

When you look at the recent head-to-head history between these teams, it's easy to see that this number has been inflated tonight. In both meetings this season, the Nuggets and Mavs have combined for 189 and 191 points with Denver winning each time. In fact, they have combined for 208 or less in each of their last seven meetings.

This play falls into a system that is 29-7 (80.6%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DENVER) - after 4 or more consecutive wins, on Friday nights.

The UNDER is 9-2-1 in Nuggets last 12 vs. Western Conference. The UNDER is 7-1-1 in Mavericks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The UNDER is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Dallas. Roll with the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on Cleveland Cavaliers +5

The New York Knicks just had their 13-game winning streak snapped with a 111-118 (OT) loss to the Chicago Bulls last night. I look for them to suffer a hangover from that defeat, and for the Cleveland Cavaliers to take advantage and likely win this game outright.

New York comes in a very tired team as this will be the second of a back-to-back and the 7th game in 11 days for the Knicks. This is a short-handed team as it is with all of its injury problems. Raymond Felton (knee) is questionable, while Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin, Tyson Chandler, Amare Stoudemire and Rasheed Wallace are all expected to miss tonight's game.

Cleveland has played New York very tough this season, but it has come up short in both meetings. The Cavaliers lost 102-103 at New York on December 15th in their first meeting, and 97-102 at home on March 4th in their second. There's no question that Cleveland wants revenge tonight. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Cleveland.

New York is 2-14 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. The Cavaliers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. Cleveland is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Take the Cavaliers Friday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -116

The Philadelphia Phillies should be a much heavier favorite over the Miami Marlins tonight in Game 1 of this NL East series. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at a great price Friday.

Miami (1-8) is clearly the worst team in the big leagues. It is hitting just .217 and scoring 1.8 runs/game through its first nine games of the year. That includes a .143 average and 0.7 runs/game in its three home games.

John Lannan has been one of the most underrated starters in the league for years. He allowed just three earned runs and five base runners in a 4-3 victory over Kansas City on April 6th in his first start of the season.

Ricky Nolasco is considered the 'ace' of Miami's staff, which just goes to show how terrible its staff really is. Nolasco has posted a 4.48 ERA or worse in six of his first seven years in the majors. Simply put, that's terrible.

Miami is 0-9 (-11.0 Units) against the money line vs. excellent speed teams - averaging 1 or more SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. The Phillies are 29-14 in their last 43 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Marlins are 19-45 in their last 64 games as a home underdog. Take the Phillies.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nets/Pacers UNDER 187.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Brooklyn Nets and Indiana Pacers. With both teams having a lot to play for, I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight when they meet up.

Indiana is just two games behind New York for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. It is also trying to hold off No. 4 Brooklyn, which is trying to secure home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Given these scenarios, the defensive intensity is going to be high tonight.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. The two meetings between the Pacers and Nets this season have seen 173 and 183 combined points. The final two meetings of last season saw 184 and 181 combined points. They have not topped 184 combined points while averaging 180.3 points/game in their last four meetings.

Brooklyn has really picked it up defensively of late, allowing just 91.8 points/game in its last five games overall. Indiana allows just 90.2 points/game overall, including 88.8 points/game at home this season.

The Pacers are 19-4 to the UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-0 in Nets last 5 Friday games. The UNDER is 20-8 in Nets last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Thunder/Warriors TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Oklahoma City -3.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder realize that they control their own destiny. Tied with the San Antonio Spurs with the best record in the West at 57-21, the Thunder own the tiebreaker. That means they just need to win out and they'll get the No. 1 seed in the West.

Golden State has a lot less to play for as it's either going to be the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the West, which isn't a huge difference. The Warriors are being overvalued here because they have won four of five coming in.

All four of those victories came against non-playoff teams in the Blazers, Hornets, Suns and Timberwolves with three of them coming at home. Their lone loss was a 90-97 setback at home against the Utah Jazz, who were the only team that had something to play for during this run.

The Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Oklahoma City is 41-18-3 ATS in its last 62 vs. Western Conference opponents. The Warriors are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Golden State is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games following a S.U. win. Bet the Thunder Thursday.

15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Angels -127

The Los Angeles Angels come into this series finale with AL West rival Oakland highly motivated for a victory. They have been embarrassed in the first two games of this series, losing a combined 10-20.

I like the Angels' chances of salvaging a Game 3 victory tonight given the edge they have on the mound. Jason Vargas is one of the most underrated starters in the league, and he was an excellent addition this offseason.

Vargas was brilliant in his first start of the year, allowing just one earned run on 5 2/3 innings of a 2-3 loss at Texas, which is no small feat. Vargas has posted a 3.31 ERA and 1.008 WHIP in 13 career starts against Oakland as well.

Vargas is a very profitable 22-14 (+14.7 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons. The Angels are 8-3 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Bet Los Angeles Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Chicago White Sox +143

The Chicago White Sox come into this Game 3 with the Washington Nationals highly motivated for a victory. They lost the first two games of this series, and now they want to salvage it with a Game 3 victory tonight.

Given the way both of these starters performed in their openers, I certainly believe the White Sox are showing excellent value in this one. Dylan Axelrod went 5 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run in a 4-3 victory over Seattle on April 6th.

Dan Haren carried over his poor performances from last season, giving up six earned runs and four homers over 4 innings of a 15-0 loss at Cincinnati on April 5th. He's simply washed up and far past his prime, and shouldn't be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.

Haren is a woeful 4-10 (-13.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The White Sox are 31-14 in their last 45 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. Chicago is 5-1 in Axelrod's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the White Sox Thursday.

15* AL West PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros +153

The Seattle Mariners should not be this heavily favored against any team in the league unless Felix Hernandez is on the mound. That's especially the case with Blake Beavan on the mound for them tonight.

Beavan is 16-17 with a 4.46 ERA over his three-year career with Seattle. He has opened the 2013 campaign poorly, allowing five earned runs over 5 innings in an 8-7 victory at Chicago.

While Brad Peacock has only made three career starts before, he has made the most of them. He is 2-1 with a 1.65 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in those three outings. The Astros come in with a ton of confidence after their massive 16-9 victory over the Mariners last night.

This play falls into a system that is 33-12 (73.3%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against any team (SEATTLE) - poor AL offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA>=5.00), after a loss by 6 runs or more. Take the Astros Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Hornets/Kings OVER 201.5

This is a meaningless game for both the New Orleans Hornets and Sacramento Kings. That's why I believe neither team will be getting after it defensively, which will allow for a high-scoring battle.

I fully expect both teams to eclipse the 100-point mark in this one. One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that there is some value with the OVER tonight folks.

Both meetings this season have seen 205 or more combined points. New Orleans beat Sacramento 110-95 at home on February 24th in their most recent meeting. The Hornets also beat the Kings 114-105 on January 21st for 219 combined points.

Sacramento is 11-1 to the OVER in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 3 seasons. It is seeing an average of 214.4 points/game in this spot. Roll with the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +136

The Minnesota Twins come into this game with the Kansas City Royals highly motivated for a victory. That's because they have dropped the first two games of this series, and they are looking to salvage it and avoid the sweep with a Game 3 victory.

I like their chances of getting Game 3 tonight considering that Kansas City starter Wade Davis has never proven that he can handle starting in this league. He struggled Friday at Philadelphia in his first start since 2011, giving up four runs on nine hits and exiting down 4-0 after four innings.

Minnesota is a very profitable 24-22 (+13.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. Kansas City is 2-10 (-8.7 Units) against the money line in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Twins Wednesday.

20* Nets/Celtics ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 193

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle on National TV tonight when these two get together on ESPN.

Both teams have a lot to play for as each is trying to improve its seeding. Brooklyn is coming close to clinching the No. 4 spot and home-court advantage in the first round. Boston is trying to avoid dropping to the No. 8 spot, which would mean it would have to face Miami in the first round.

One look at the recent meetings between these teams and it's easy to see that this number has been inflated. In their two most recent meetings, the Nets and Celtics combined for 169 points on December 25th, and 178 points on November 28th. In fact, the UNDER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with combined scores of 178 or less points eight times.

The UNDER is 6-1 in Nets last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The UNDER is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox +153

Off a 1-run loss to the Washington Nationals in Game 1 of this series, I look for the Chicago White Sox to bounce back with a Game 2 victory tonight. You can't beat this price on the Sox, either.

Gavin Floyd pitched very well in his opening start against Kansas City on April 4th, allowing just two earned runs and five base runners over 6 innings. Floyd's last start at Washington was a gem in 2010 as he allowed just one earned run over 8 innings of a 2-1 Chicago victory.

This play falls into a system that is 34-13 (72.3%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (CHI WHITE SOX) - terrible offensive team - scoring <=4.2 runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent allowing 4.8 or more runs/game on the season (NL).

This play falls into another system that is 69-67 (50.7%) over the last 5 seasons while profiting $1,000/game bettors a whopping $59,900. It tells us to bet against home favorites with a money line of -150 or more (WASHINGTON) - after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, top level team, winning 62% or more of their games on the season. Roll with the White Sox Wednesday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami Marlins +146

The Miami Marlins will be hungry for a win tonight as they look to avoid getting swept by the Atlanta Braves. They lost the first two games of this series by a combined three runs, and I look for them to bounce back with a victory in Game 3.

Alex Sanabia is the reason for Miami's lone victory this season. He went 6 shutout innings in a 7-5 victory at New York on April 5th in his lone start this season. Sanabia sports a 3.86 ERA in three career starts against Atlanta. Mike Minor is 1-2 with a 5.04 ERA in seven career starts against Miami.

This play falls into a system that is 63-34 (64.9%) since 1997 with $1,000/game bettors winning $31,400. It tells us to bet on home teams (MIAMI) - off 4 straight losses vs. division rivals against opponent off a one run win over a division rival. Take the Marlins Wednesday.

15* NL Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -125

The Philadelphia Phillies have lost their first two series of the season to the Braves and Royals 1-2 each. They have a chance to win their first series of the season against the New York Mets tonight, and I fully expect them to take advantage.

I especially like the Phillies' chances of winning Game 3 tonight considering the edge they have on the mound. Kyle Kendrick is 5-5 with a 3.00 ERA in 12 career starts against New York, while Jeremy Hefner is 1-1 with a 15.00 ERA in two career starts against Philadelphia, both of which came last year.

The Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. The Phillies are 44-21 in their last 65 Wednesday games. Philadelphia is 6-1 in Kendrick's last 7 starts vs. NL East opponents. Bet the Phillies Wednesday.

20* NBA Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Orlando Magic +5

The Orlando Magic should not be an underdog to the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Milwaukee is all but locked into the No. 8 seed, which means it will be facing Miami in the first round of the playoffs.

Knowing that their fate is already sealed, the Bucks won't show up for this game tonight. They'll be more interested in resting their players in these final few games than winning them.

Orlando continues to battle down the stretch as it tries to avoid finishing with the league's worst record. While it has lost five straight coming in, all five losses came on the road with four of them to playoff contenders in Atlanta, Houston, San Antonio and Chicago. Plus, four of those five losses came by 9 points or less, so they were right there with a chance to win.

Milwaukee is 1-10 ATS versus horrible foul drawing teams - attempting <=21 free throws/game - 2nd half of the season this season. The Bucks are 1-11 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Magic are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Milwaukee is 0-6 ATS in the last 6 meetings in this series. These five trends combine for a 36-2 system backing Orlando. Bet the Magic Wednesday.

15* AL Wednesday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay Rays +115

The Tampa Bay Rays will be highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing the first two games of this series to Texas. I like them to take Game 3 and salvage this series will avoiding the sweep.

I especially like the Rays' chances with young phenom Matt Moore on the mound. The left-hander was brilliant in his first start, pitching 6 shutout innings while striking out eight in a 4-0 victory over Cleveland on April 5th.

Moore shut down the Rangers in his lone career start against them, pitching seven shutout innings of a 9-0 victory at Texas on 9/30/2011. Rangers starter Derek Holland sports a 5.03 ERA in nine career starts against Tampa Bay.

Tampa is a very profitable 25-20 (+11.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 17-4 in their last 21 games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Rays Wednesday.

15* American League PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +136

The Minnesota Twins are showing excellent value as a road underdog to the Kansas City Royals Tuesday. They'll be hungry to bounce back following a blown late lead in the 8th inning yesterday to fall to the Royals 3-1 in Game 1 of this series.

I like their chances with the underrated Mike Pelfrey on the mound. The right-hander went 5 1/3 innings while not allowing a single earned run to pick up the win in an 8-2 victory over Detroit in his first start of the season on April 4th.

Pelfrey has never faced Kansas City, giving him an advantage. Meanwhile, Minnesota has seen Jeremy Guthrie seven times, including once last year. Guthrie allowed five earned runs over 5 innings of a 5-7 home loss to the Twins on July 22nd.

Minnesota is 19-6 (+20.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 6 or less times/game over the last 3 seasons. Kansas City is 1-10 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Twins Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Bobcats/Grizzlies UNDER 186.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Charlotte Bobcats and Memphis Grizzlies. I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle in this contest tonight folks.

Memphis is a lockdown defensive team that won't allow the Charlotte Bobcats to exceed 80 points tonight. The Grizzlies only allow 89.7 points/game overall, including 87.6 points/game at home. The Bobcats score just 90.7 points/game on the road this year.

One look at the recent history in this series and it's easy to see that this total has been inflated. The last three meetings between the Bobcats and Grizzlies have seen 181, 165 and 178 combined points. That's an average of 174.7 points/game, which is roughly 12 points less than tonight's posted total. In fact, six of the last seven meetings in this series have seen 187 or fewer combined points.

Memphis is 7-0 to the UNDER versus poor shooting teams - making <=43% of their shots this season. The UNDER is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games overall as they have combined with each of their last five opponents for 185 or less points. These two trends combine for a perfect 12-0 system backing the UNDER tonight. Roll with the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Milwaukee Bucks +6.5

The Miami Heat don't have much to play for the rest of the way after already clinching the No. 1 spot in the Eastern Conference over a week ago. They can still afford to lose a couple more games before having to worry about losing home-court advantage throughout the playoffs against the Western Conference.

This scenario is why I believe that the Heat have been resting players down the stretch. They don't really care about the outcome of these games or they wouldn't do it. Once again, they are expected to rest Dwyane Wade (out), and they are likely to rest Chris Bosh (doubtful) as well.

Milwaukee has a lot to play for tonight. It can still catch No. 7 Boston in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Even if it doesn't catch the Celtics, it wants to send a message to the Miami Heat that they will be in for a series if the Bucks have to settle for the No. 8 spot.

The Bucks have already proven they can play with the Heat this year, winning 104-85 at home on December 29th. They also put up a fight on the road on November 21st, falling 106-113 as a 9.5-point underdog. In fact, Milwaukee is 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in its last 7 meetings with Miami.

Milwaukee is 14-5 ATS in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season. The Heat are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 vs. NBA Central opponents. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Miami. Take Milwaukee Tuesday.

25* NBA GAME OF THE YEAR on Washington Wizards +10

The Washington Wizards represent my strongest release for the entire 2012-13 season Tuesday night as they travel to face the New York Knicks. Every team gets up to play inside of Madison Square Garden, and the Wizards will relish the experience tonight and make the most of it.

New York comes in way overvalued due to its 12-game winning streak heading into this one. It has also gone 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games overall, and now oddsmakers have been forced to set the number so high that the Knicks cannot possibly live up to the expectations they have created for themselves.

This is a huge letdown spot for New York. That's because it is coming off one of its biggest wins of the season in a 125-120 road victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. That game was nationally televised on ABC Sunday afternoon.

Washington has been one of the most underrated teams in the league all season. That's evident by the fact that it is a very profitable 45-31 ATS in all games this year. The Wizards want to even the season series tonight after dropping two of their first three to New York. They won't have any problem getting motivated to try and put an end to this 10-game winning streak.

The Wizards are a sensational 17-3 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent this season. This trend just goes to show how they take payback personally, and 85% of the time they have come back to cover the spread against these opponents. Bet the Wizards Tuesday.

15* White Sox/Nationals Interleague No-Brainer on Chicago +140

The Chicago White Sox get the nod Tuesday in Game 1 of this series with the Washington Nationals. I believe they are showing too good of value to pass up tonight in what is a very evenly-matched game on the mound.

Jack Peavy bounced back nicely last season to prove that he's still got it, going 11-12 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.096 WHIP over 32 starts. He's off to a great start this year as well, allowing just one earned run over 6 innings of a 5-2 victory over Kansas City on April 3rd.

Peavy is 6-2 with a 1.63 ERA in eight interleague starts since joining the White Sox in July 2009 and has earned two wins over Washington in that span. He tossed a three-hit shutout in his most recent game in the nation's capital on June 19, 2010, and is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA in three starts there.

Gio Gonzalez has struggled with the White Sox. The left-hander is 0-4 with a 5.86 ERA and 1.772 WHIP in five career starts against Chicago. The White Sox are 15-3 (+12.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Take Chicago Tuesday.

15* NL Non-Divisional KNOCKOUT on Pittsburgh Pirates +140

The Pittsburgh Pirates get the nod as a nice-sized road underdog to the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. I look for the Pirates to come in the more motivated team and wanting this one more due to their 1-5 start, while the Diamondbacks are 5-1 to start the year.

I like Pittsburgh's chances of picking up its second win of the season with underrated left-hander Wandy Rodriquez getting the ball. He went 6 2/3 shutout innings of a 3-0 victory over the Chicago Cubs on April 3rd to give the Pirates their lone win of the year.

This play falls into a system that is 42-17 (71.2%) over the last 5 seasons while profiting $1,000/game bettors $40,900. It tells us to bet against home teams (ARIZONA) - with a team batting average of .275 or better on the season (NL), after scoring 8 runs or more. Take the Pirates Monday.

20* Michigan/Louisville NCAA Championship No-Brainer on Louisville -3.5

The Louisville Cardinals will prove that they are the best team in college basketball and deserved of the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament tonight. I look for them to win and cover against overmatched Michigan in this one.

The Cardinals just have something special going because of the injury to teammate Kevin Ware. They have really pulled closer together as a team, which helped them overcome a hard-fought game against Wichita State in the Final Four. They simply appear to be a team of destiny at this point.

I believe that only having one day to prepare for their opponent will benefit Louisville more than Michigan in this one. That's because the Cardinals are a tougher team to prepare for as they are the best pressing team in the country. They are forcing an average of 18 turnovers/game this season.

Louisville is 6-0 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS when playing their 2nd road game in 3 days over the last 2 seasons. Louisville is 7-0 ATS in road games after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Cardinals. Bet Louisville Monday.

15* AL Non-Divisional ANNIHILATOR on Tampa Bay Rays +145

The Tampa Bay Rays are showing excellent value as a big road underdog to the Texas Rangers tonight. Texas is in a big letdown spot here after coming off a 2-1 series win over division rival Los Angeles. That's especially the case after a victory in Game 3 on ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball.

I believe this line has been inflated just because of how the two starting pitchers faired in their first outings. Jeremy Hellickson isn't getting the respect he deserves after allowing five runs over 6 1/3 innings to Baltimore on April 3rd.

At the same time, Alexi Ogando is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to blanking the Houston Astros over 6 1/3 innings of a 4-0 win on April 3rd. The Astros are arguably the worst team in the league, so that outing was far from impressive.

Hellickson has pitched well in three career starts against Texas, posting a 3.38 ERA and 1.250 WHIP. Ogando sports a 10.11 ERA and 2.622 WHIP following his lone career start against Tampa Bay.

The Rays are a ridiculous 12-2 (+14.2 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Better yet, Tampa Bay is 15-4 (+17.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Rays Monday.

15* NL East PLAY OF THE DAY on Philadelphia Phillies -115

You may never get another opportunity to back Roy Halladay at this kind of price the rest of the season. I'm going to take advantage and back the Phillies, who will be hungry following a 2-4 start to the season.

Philadelphia has lost Game 1 in each of its first two series this season, and it realizes that grabbing a Game 1 victory tonight will be essential to go on and win its first series of the year. I like its chances against the lowly New York Mets.

The Mets are way overvalued right now due to their 4-2 start. Well, that 4-2 start has come against arguably the two worst teams in baseball in the San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins.

While Halladay only last 3.1 innings in his first start this year, he did strike out 9 batters, which was an MLB record. That shows he's still got it. Plus, the former Cy Young winner is 9-2 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.094 WHIP in 12 career starts against the Mets.

Halladay is 25-6 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997. His teams are winning 6.1 to 3.8 on average in this spot. Take the Phillies Monday.

15* AL Central PLAY OF THE DAY on Minnesota Twins +132

The Minnesota Twins are one of the most underrated teams in the league heading into the 2013 season. That has proven to be the case in the early going as they are off to a solid 4-2 start despite being an underdog in every game they have played in.

What's most impressive about that 4-2 start is the fact that it has come against two AL playoff teams from last year in Detroit and Baltimore. That includes a 3-2 victory over Detroit on April 3rd in Kevin Correia's lone start of the year.

Correia pitched seven innings while allowing just eight base runners and two earns runs to help lead Minnesota to victory. Ervin Santana struggled in his first start, giving up four earned runs over six innings in a 2-5 loss to the Chicago White Sox on April 3rd, also giving up three homers in the loss.

Minnesota is 8-1 against the money line vs. good baserunning teams - averaging 0.85 or more SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. Kansas City is 4-16 against the money line in home games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.

The Royals are 0-10 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons. Correia is a very profitable 23-19 (+12.0 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Twins Monday.

20* NBA Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Utah Jazz +5.5

The Utah Jazz are showing excellent value as a 5.5-point underdog to the Golden State Warriors tonight. This is a much more important game for the Jazz (40-37), who trail the Los Angeles Lakers by 0.5 games for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference.

The Jazz have saved their best basketball of the season for last. In fact, they have won six of their last seven games overall. They are also 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. This team is handling the pressure of trying to make the playoffs very well.

The Warriors are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Golden State is 7-17 ATS following two or more consecutive wins this season. Bet the Jazz Sunday.

15* Lakers/Clippers ABC Sunday No-Brainer on Los Angeles Lakers +5

The Los Angeles Lakers are showing solid value as a 5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday. This is a much more important game for the Lakers, and because they want it more, they'll cover this spread, likely winning outright.

The Lakers are 40-36 on the season, which has them 0.5 games ahead of the Utah Jazz for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They have actually been playing their best basketball of the season of late with the stakes at their highest.

The Lakers have won three straight heading into this one with victories over the Kings (103-98), Mavericks (101-81) and Grizzlies (86-84). After losing the first three meetings of the season with the Clippers, the Lakers will clearly be out for revenge today.

This play falls into a system that is 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells you to bet on any team (LA LAKERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent. Take the Lakers Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -117

The Philadelphia Phillies should be a much heavier favorite today against the Kansas City Royals with ace Cole Hamels on the mound. I'll gladly take advantage and back them at an excellent price.

Hamels, 4-3 with a 3.27 ERA over 10 interleague starts since 2010, will be making his first career appearance versus Kansas City (2-3). Having never seen Hamels, the Royals are at a huge disadvantage.

Kansas City is 1-9 against the money line vs. a poor bullpen whose WHIP is 1.550 or worse over the last 3 seasons. The Royals are 25-62 in their last 87 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Phillies are 82-40 in their last 122 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Roll with Philadelphia Sunday.

20* Michigan/Syracuse Final Four No-Brainer on Syracuse +2.5

I have been backing both Michigan and Syracuse throughout the NCAA Tournament with a lot of success thus far. Now, it's time to pick between the two, and I have no problem doing so considering this match-up really favors Syracuse.

I believe the length of the Orange across the board is going to cause Michigan fits offensively, just as it has for every other team they have faced. In fact, Syracuse has held its first four opponents in the NCAA Tournament to just 45.8 points/game.

Syracuse held the almighty Indiana Hoosiers to just 50 points on 34.0% shooting, and a good Marquette team to just 39 points on 22.6% shooting the past two rounds. Its defense is going to be the difference in this game.

Most people believe that playing a zone defense means that you're forcing your opponent to try and make 3-pointers to beat you. Well, that's not the case for this Syracuse team, which defends the 3-ball as well as anyone in the country.

The Orange only allow their opponents to make 28.2% of their 3-point shots on the season. That's huge because Michigan is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the land at 38.5%. The Orange held Indiana, another great 3-point shooting team, to just 3-of-15 (20%) from distance.

Jim Boeheim is 28-13 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick as the coach of Syracuse. The Orange are 24-10 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Syracuse is 58-35 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days since 1997. The Orange are 8-2 ATS after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half this season. They are winning in this spot by 23.7 points/game. Bet Syracuse Saturday.

20* NBA Saturday Total ANNIHILATOR on Hawks/Spurs UNDER 193.5

I'm siding with the UNDER in this game between the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs. I fully expect a defensive battle between these two solid defensive teams tonight.

A big reason I'm backing the UNDER in this contest is the fact that the Spurs are expected to be without Tony Parker (shin) and Manu Ginobli (hamstring), which are two of their best scorers.

Also, both teams have been prone to the UNDER of late. Atlanta is 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games overall, combining with its opponents to average 187.3 points/game. San Antonio is 4-0 to the UNDER in its last four games, combining with its opponents to average 181.5 points/game.

One look at the recent history between these teams and it's easy to see that the books have inflated this total tonight. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings with combined scores of 191, 188 and 187 points.

Atlanta is 7-0 to the UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) this season. The Hawks are 7-0 to the UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots this season. Atlanta is 8-0 to the UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Throw in the fact that the UNDER is 4-0 in both team's last four games overall, and we have a combined 30-0 system backing the UNDER in this contest tonight. Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday GAME OF THE NIGHT on Philadelphia Phillies -130

After a 1-3 start to the season, the Philadelphia Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory Saturday. That's especially the case after blowing a 4-0 lead to the Kansas City Royals in Game 1 of this series.

John Lannan, Philadelphia's 5th starter, is a big reason why I believe it has one of the best rotations in baseball. The left-hander has been underrated throughout his career, going 42-52 with a 4.01 ERA.

The Phillies have a huge edge on the mound tonight with Lannan over Luis Mendoza, who is 14-19 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.532 WHIP over his six-year career between Texas and Kansas City. It's amazing this guy is still around with how poorly he has performed throughout his career.

Kansas City is 4-18 (-13.2 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 3 seasons. The Royals are 27-56 in their last 83 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Kansas City is 25-61 in its last 86 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Roll with the Phillies Saturday.

20* Grizzlies/Lakers NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Los Angeles -2.5

Oddsmakers are giving us an absolute gift with the Los Angeles Lakers as only a small home favorite over the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. At 39-36 on the season, the Lakers would be the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference playoffs if the season were to end today.

However, Los Angeles is just 0.5 games ahead of the Utah Jazz, so it cannot afford to take a night off from here on out. Adding to the motivation for the Lakers is the fact that they've lost the first two meetings of the season to the Grizzlies, both of which were at Memphis.

This is a great spot to back the Lakers considering they will be coming in on two days' rest having last played on Tuesday in a huge 101-81 home win over the Dallas Mavericks. They were without Steve Nash in that game, and they likely will be again tonight, which isn't a big deal at all.

In fact, this team has arguably been better without Nash on the floor. It forces Kobe Bryant to become a facilitator, and he did just that against the Mavs. Bryant posted a triple-double with 23 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists.

This play falls into a system that is 30-7 (81.1%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on any team (LA LAKERS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) after 42+ games, after 3 straight games - attempting 10+ more free throws than opponent.

Los Angeles is 23-7 in its last 30 home meetings with Memphis. The Grizzlies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings in this series. Bet the Lakers Friday.

15* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Rockets -4.5

While the Houston Rockets have a lot to play for down the stretch, the Portland Trail Blazers have zero to play for at this point. With that in mind, I'll back the Rockets as a small favorite over the Blazers tonight in Portland.

Houston (42-33) sits 1.0 game behind Golden State for the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. Whoever gets that seed will avoid having to face San Antonio and Oklahoma City in the first round, which is huge.

The Rockets have been playing well down the stretch, winning three straight over the Clippers, Magic and Kings heading into this one. That includes a 98-81 victory over the Clippers on March 30th.

Portland (33-42) is virtually eliminated from postseason contention, and it has been playing like it over the last few weeks. The Blazers have clearly packed it in, losers of six straight while going 0-5-1 ATS in the process.

In fact, all six of Portland's losses during this skid have come by double-digits. They were beaten by the Thunder (83-103), Warriors (98-125), and Jazz (102-112) on the road, and the Nets (93-111), Jazz (95-105) and Grizzlies (76-94) at home during this losing streak.

Houston beat Portland 118-103 in its last meeting on February 8th, and the Blazers are coming off that 76-94 home loss to Memphis. That's important considering this play falls into a system that is 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against underdogs (PORTLAND) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off an embarrassing home loss scoring less than 80 points. Take the Rockets Friday.

15* NBA Friday Night Line Mistake on Phoenix Suns +8

The Golden State Warriors are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight as an 8-point road favorite over the Phoenix Suns. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Suns, who have played their best basketball at home this year.

Phoenix is 16-22 at home this season, and Golden State is 17-21 on the road. This is a much more evenly-matched game than this line would indicate, which is the reason for backing the Suns at a great price tonight.

The Suns will be out for revenge after losing the first three meetings of the season to the Warriors. That includes an 85-87 home loss on October 31st in their lone home meeting. Meanwhile, Golden State will have a hard time getting motivated to face a team it has already beaten three times.

I like the Suns' chances for revenge tonight considering they are an amazing 28-5 SU in all home meetings with Golden State dating back to 1996. In fact, their five home losses during this stretch have come by two (87-85), two (106-104), ten (110-100), nine (92-83) and eight points (103-05). That makes for a 30-2-1 ATS angle backing the Suns since 1996. Roll with Phoenix Friday.

15* MLB Friday Undervalued Underdog on St. Louis Cardinals +115

The St. Louis Cardinals are going to be highly motivated heading into this series with the San Francisco Giants. I look for them to win Game 1 today because of it.

The Cardinals want revenge from losing to the Giants in the NLCS in 2012. In fact, St. Louis had a 3-1 lead before losing the final three games of that series while not scoring a single run in the process. It's payback time in Game 1 today folks.

St. Louis is having no problem at the plate in the early going, scoring a combined 17 runs in a 3-game series with the Diamondbacks to open the season. San Francisco, meanwhile, was held to a combined 8 runs in its opening series with the Dodgers.

I believe the Cardinals have the edge on the mound with Jake Westbrook over Barry Zito, who is getting way too much respect in the early going after coming through clutch in the postseason last year. I believe Zito's performance was more of an aberration, because this guy has been terrible for a few years now.

In six years with the Giants, Zito has gone 58-69 with a whopping 4.47 ERA. He hasn't finished with better than a 4.03 ERA in any of his six seasons in a San Francisco uniform. Westbrook went 13-11 with a 3.97 ERA for the Cardinals last season.

The Cardinals are 10-4 in their last 14 games following an off day. St. Louis is 4-1 in Westbrook's last 5 starts vs. National League West. Westbrook has allowed 3 earned runs or less in each of his four career starts against San Francisco. St. Louis is 20-7 against the money line in road games after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more over the last 3 seasons. Take the Cardinals Friday.

15* MLB Friday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Philadelphia Phillies -122

The Philadelphia Phillies are showing excellent value as a small home favorite over the Kansas City Royals today. This is a team that is undervalued heading into the season coming off a sub-par 81-win season in 2012.

Many people believe that the Kansas City Royals are going to be better this season, but I'm not one of those people. However, they are overvalued as a result. They are off to a poor start, scoring a combined 5 runs while losing two of three to the Chicago White Sox in their opening series.

Kyle Kendrick is one of the most underrated starters in the game, and he's the reason why the Phillies will have arguably the best rotation in baseball this season. Kendrick has gone 54-42 with a 4.30 ERA in his career, including 8-6 with a 3.22 ERA in 2011, and 11-12 with a 3.90 ERA in 2012.

The Royals traded for James Shields and Wade Davis this offseason. It was great to get Shields, but Davis was basically a throw-in. This guy has never posted better than a 4.07 ERA in a full season as a starter in the big leagues.

The Phillies are 51-23 in their last 74 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Philadelphia is 9-2 in its last 11 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter. The Royals are 2-9 in their last 11 road games. Kansas City is 16-35 in its last 51 interleague games as an underdog. Bet the Phillies Friday.