*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Philadelphia Phillies ranks in the bottom five in the majors in both the last 14 days and the last 7 days in terms of production. This Phillies offense is coming off a nice performance against R.A. Dickey last night, but Marcus Stroman should prove a tougher challenge for them.

Stroman has been at his best at home during the day in his career, and he should induce a lot of swinging strikes against this lineup. 

Zach Elfin showed tremendous control in the minors and he has some solid stuff. Toronto's offense has been a disappointment this year.

With this being a get away day, some key players could get the day off here.

Bill Miller is the umpire here and he is my single favorite under umpire. He is a strike calling machine. If this one goes over, it won't be because of Miller.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Phillies last 7 Tuesday games. The under is 8-0 in the Jays last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0-1 in the Jays last 5 games following a loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 interleague home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Game 5 CASH* Game 4 was played to by far the slowest pace of the series thus far. The Cavs are likely going to try to make this game very physical, and typically in elimination games the tempo slows down a touch.

This posted total has dropped despite the public backing the over at 68% clip. Draymond Green's suspension has something to do with that for sure, but I believe this also means there is some sharp money on the under in this one.

Without Green, the Warriors lose a key facilitator of their offense. I think this game likely has less rhythm and is a little sloppier than most of the games in the series thus far. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The San Francisco Giants start Jake Peavy in this one and the Los Angeles Dodgers start rookie phenom Julio Urias.

Urias got off to a rocky start, but he was much better last game, and his stuff is tremendous. The Giants are short-handed on offense right now, and this is a tremendous pitchers park. 

Peavy has been very good against the Dodgers in his career, and the Dodgers offense ranks in the bottom five in the majors in the past 14 days in wOBA. The Giants don't rank much higher at 23rd.

This is a national television game and I expect a heated battle here. Look for runs to be difficult to come by. 

Mike Muchlinski is behind the plate here and the under is 26-9-1 in his last 35 Sunday games. He is noted for having a bigger strike zone than a normal umpire. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Mark Ripperger is one of the top five under umpires in baseball. This is a guy who is calling a ton of strikes and taking pressure off the pitchers. The under is 35-17 in his last 52 games behind the dish.

Danny Salazar is taking the next step and is close to becoming an elite pitcher right now. The Indians offense has been good at home, but they have struggled on the road.On the other side, the Angels have been bad offensively at home. 

Huff isn't a pitcher I like very much, but this umpire draw helps him and he'll try to work the corners here. 

This is a very high total for a game in LA, especially with a pitcher as good as Salazar involved. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Pittsburgh Pirates start Francisco Liriano in this one. Liriano has good career numbers vs. the Cardinals, but I still have to doubt his ability to shut them down here. St. Louis has one of the best offenses in baseball this year, and Liriano has been having severe command problems of late. 

Even if Liriano does pitch well here, he very rarely pitches deep into the game, and the Pirates bullpen ranks as one of the worst five bullpens in the majors.

Carlos Martinez has a 5.30 ERA at PNC Park in his career. This Pirates offense is far better than most people realize. Pittsburgh should get their chances in this one. 

The warm weather here is a help as well. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* This posted total is set very high, but it's not high enough to keep me off the over. Coors Field is always a good park for hitters, but day games when the weather is like it is set to be on Saturday are on a different level. The temperature is scheduled to be 92 degrees with wind out at 15 mph. That makes this place a launching pad. 

Erik Johnson has been a bad major league starter no matter where he has been, and now San Diego has given him his first start with the team and set it for this game against Colorado at Coors Field. Tough spot! The Rockies should be slug out a bunch of runs here. The Padres bullpen isn't good either, so that is an additional bonus.

Tyler Chatwood hasn't allowed a home run all year on the road, but he has allowed a home run on 23.1 percent of his fly balls at Coors Field this year. Chatwood has terrible home splits, and the Padres have hit the ball very well at Coors Field this year.

Paul Emmel is one of the best over umpires in the game and he's behind the plate for this game. 

The over is 5-0-1 in the Padres last 6 road games. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a righty. The over is 4-0-1 in the Rockies last 5 home games vs a righty. The over is 6-1-1 in the Rockies last 8 games. A 19-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Aaron Nola is a really good young pitcher. Nola has a tremendous curveball and a great sinker. Few pitchers can fool people as bad as Nola does on a consistent basis. Nola has pitched 12 innings in Washington in his career and has yet to allow a run. Nola had a 1.58 ERA on the road so far this year.

Tanner Roark had some bad starts against Philadelphia last year, but he has dominated them this year. Roark has thrown 14 innings and allowed only 2 runs against them.

The Phillies lineup isn't very good, and while Washington is great against lefties they have struggled against right handed pitching this year.

Both pitchers are much better during day games than at night. This is a very early start time. The under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks offenses are both much better against left handed pitching. Justin Nicolino is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball according to many of the statistics I look at. Nicolino doesn't strike anyone out, and his control isn't very good. The Diamondbacks rank in the top three in the majors in almost all categories when it comes to offensive production vs. lefties.

The Marlins lineup is designed well to hit lefties. Patrick Corbin has been very inconsistent this year, and he seems to not fully have his confidence back. 

Both of these bullpens are subpar right now as well.

The Chase Field Roof is slated to be open as of now. I worry that the roof could be closed due to the heat, so I will keep this as a 3 star play instead of 4. Regardless, I believe this play has real value.

The over is 5-0 in the Marlins last 5 road games. The over is 7-1 in the DBacks last 8 home games. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Friday's BEST Bet* The Detroit Tigers are absolutely pummeling left handed pitching of late. They started the season curiously slow against lefties, but they are making up for it lately. Detroit put up 11 runs vs. J.A. Happ. They scored 7 runs vs. Chris Sale. They scored 10 runs against Carlos Rodon. Those were all in the past week.

C.C. Sabathia has pitched well this year, but he is a major candidate for regression and this Detroit offense is extremely good. While the back of the Yankee bullpen is great, if Sabathia gets pulled early the middle of the Yankees pen isn't all that great.

Mike Pelfrey is just a really bad pitcher. Pelfrey is constantly pitching from the stretch and trying to work out of a jam. The Yankees lineup underachieved for a long time, but they are hitting the ball right now. I don't see any reason to expect that to stop tonight.

I expect plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB RED Hot CASH* The Pittsburgh Pirates and Colorado Rockies play an afternoon game at Coors Field on Thursday. The temperature for this one is expected to be 90 degrees and that's important. Year after year we have seen that with very hot weather Coors Field is the ultimate hitter's park. That is even more the case when it is a day game, where the ball flies much better than it does at night in Colorado.

Jeff Locke is coming off some nice starts of late, but he's not a good pitcher on the road. Despite his good start in Colorado earlier this year, I feel comfortable assuming that Colorado will get to him here. Locke is a much worse pitcher on the road overall, and his advanced statistics suggest he is due for regression.

Locke has a 4.28 ERA but his FIP is 5.13 and his SIERA is 5.23. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in their home games.

Pittsburgh ranks 7th in wOBA on the road this year. The Pirates are getting healthy again, and I really like this Pittsburgh lineup when healthy. Chad Bettis has a career 6.34 ERA when pitching at Coors Field.

The over is 20-7-4 in Locke's last 31 road starts. The over is 5-1 in the Rockies last 6 home games. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Chris Rusin has solid numbers and peripherals this year. The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been disappointing this year. Colorado's bullpen is much better than they were a year ago. 

Maeda is a solid pitcher who has great deception. The Rockies offense isn't what it has been in recent years. 

Adam Hamari is the umpire here and he ranks in the top 5% of umpires in the majors in terms of strikes called percentages. This is a very good under umpire. He'll give both pitchers the corners.

The marine layer in California is thicker at this time than at any other time during the year. 

The under is 10-4 in the Dodgers last 14 vs. a lefty. The under is 5-2 in Rusin's last 7 starts. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* These are two teams who have been hitting the ball pretty well of late, but Seattle is much better offensively on the road and Cleveland is much better offensively at home.

Cleveland ranks 27th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) on the road. The Indians rank 4th in wOBA at home. Seattle ranks 13th at home and 5th on the road. 

Taijuan Walker has been struggling with his command of late, but Mike Muchlinski being behind the dish is a big positive for him. Muchlinski is a big under umpire who will give him the corners.

Carlos Carrasco has been amazing on the road in the past three seasons. He has an ERA under 3 on the road in three straight seasons. 

Both of these bullpens are solid as well, and this is definitely a pitcher's park. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Drew Pomeranz is very underrated as a starting pitcher and this Atlanta Braves offense is awful. Atlanta is bad on offense against everyone, but they are even worse against left handed starters.

Julio Teheran has good numbers this year and all year the Braves have given him very little run support. 

The umpire here is Angel Hernandez and he ranks in the top 25% of umpires in the majors when it comes to strikes called percentages. 

The marine layer is particularly thick in California this time of the year, which makes it tougher for the ball to fly. 

All these factors equal an under play for me. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT Cash* Ubaldo Jimenez and Yordano Ventura are both having some major issues right now. Jimenez has a 10.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. He has allowed 28 runs in his last 5 starts. Jimenez isn't a guy that can be trusted right now. He has an ERA 6.59 on the year, and he has been consistently terrible of late.

Yordano Ventura has been a big disappointment this year. Ventura had a 4.82 ERA and all the advanced metrics suggest he is actually getting lucky. Ventura should have an ERA even worse than that with the way he has pitched thus far. 

Both Jimenez and Ventura are averaging more than 5 walks per nine innings pitched. That's just ridiculous and it is one of the biggest reasons for this bet. Anytime a big league pitcher is putting that many guys on base for free, there are going to be a lot of scoring opportunities.

Manny Gonzalez is an over umpire and that gives us an added boost for this play.

The over is 7-0 in the Royals last 7 Tuesday games. The over is 5-0-1 in the Orioles last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs. a right handed starter overall. The over is 5-0 in Jimenez's last 5 starts. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The New York Mets take on the Miami Marlins in what I expect will be a pitcher's duel on Sunday afternoon. 

The Miami Marlins offense is scuffling of late. While Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton are back in the lineup, they aren't back in a rhythm and likely aren't 100 percent healthy yet. Matt Harvey pitched great in his last outing after a string of bad starts. Harvey has some terrible batted ball luck this year, and I expect him to improve over the course of the season.

Jose Fernandez is the real, and at home he has been nearly unhittable in his career. Fernandez is 22-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his career at home. The Mets offense is very short handed now without Wright, Davis, and Cespedes was scratched on Saturday is questionable here.

The Marlins starting lineup has a .168 career average against Harvey. Fernandez owns a 1.67 ERA in 5 starts vs. the Mets. 

The under is 5-0 in Fernandez's last 5 home starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners have the best weighted on base average of any team in baseball in the past two weeks. This offense is on an absolute roll right now. The Mariners have scored 50 runs in their last 5 games.

Texas is one of the best parks in the majors for hitters. Martin Perez has a nice 3.12 ERA but look at his advanced metrics and you'll see he's due for regression. Perez has a 4.40 FIP and a 4.60 XFIP. He's been stranding runners at a very high rate so far this year, but that can't continue for the whole season.

Seattle starts Nate Karns and he's had a nice season so far. A closer look at who Karns has pitched against shows you that he hasn't faced many of the top lineups in the majors. This is a tough spot for him against a Rangers lineup that gets Rougned Odor back for this game.

The over is 10-0 in the Mariners last 10 games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in Karns' last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A 43-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Atlanta Braves have the worst offense in the majors. They have been the worst for the year overall and they have been the worst overall in the past two weeks. 

Los Angeles' offense has been a big disappointment. The Dodgers have struggled badly to score at home, and they rank 26th in offensive production in the past two weeks. 

Julio Teheran has thrown the ball well this year. Teheran has bumped up his strikeout rate and lowered his walk rate this year. He isn't a guy who allows many home runs on average. 

Kenta Maeda has been very good the Dodgers, and the Braves haven't seen him yet. He has a deceptive delivery that should be very hard on hitters the first time they see him.

The under is 6-1 in the Dodgers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals are a much better offense against left handed pitching. Cincinnati starts lefty Brandon Finnegan here. Finnegan has given up 7 home runs at home already this year, with warm weather in Cincinnati now the ball is flying very well. 

Gio Gonzalez has been victimized by the home run ball of late, and the Reds do have some home run hitters. Like the Nationals, the Reds are much better against left handed pitching. Gonzalez doesn't have his best form right now, and Cincinnati should get scoring chances.

The Reds bullpen is the worst in the league by a huge margin, and anytime you have a number of only 8.5 at Great American with pitchers who aren't elite, I feel like the value is with the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Friday Fast Cash* The Detroit Tigers offense has been on fire in the past couple weeks. This is a lineup that underachieved early in the year, but they have hit their stride of late. Detroit is going to continue to score runs in bunches quite often this year, because they really do have a bunch of great hitters in this lineup. 

Jordan Zimmermann is coming off an injury and is likely to be limited in this one for Detroit. The Tigers bullpen isn't a good one, and extended work for them is good for the over. 

Carlos Rodon puts too many guys on base, and I believe the Tigers can make him pay. After a great start, the White Sox bullpen has been terrible in recent weeks.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The home plate umpire is Ron Kulpa for this one, and he has the single best under record of any umpire in baseball over the past five years. He is a strike calling machine. 

Dallas Keuchel has struggled with finding the zone this year, but Kulpa should help him a lot. Keuchel has always been much better at home than on the road as well.

Zack Greinke has struggled in Arizona this year, but on the road he has been good. 

Both of these pitchers are better than they have pitched so far this year. Their early season struggles have given us a little bit higher total than we should see here. 

It's get away day for these teams and that could mean some key players get a day off. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies scored 19 runs in the first game of the series on Monday. They scored 21 on Tuesday (Colorado scored 17 of them). I think they'll score a bunch again here.

John Lamb has gotten worse from last year to this season. There have been many rumors of Lamb battling injuries this year, but Cincinnati doesn't have any starting pitching depth now and he's still starting games for the team. Lamb has an ERA of 15.26 in two road starts this year. Now, he's headed to Coors Field. Ouch. If he gets hit around early, then the Reds bullpen is in for a long time. This bullpen is historically bad, and Colorado should pile on the runs against them.

Cincinnati's bats have been much better in the past week, and they should get plenty of scoring chances here too. Tyler Chatwood struggles at Coors Field, and this bullpen ranks 7th worst in the majors in ERA. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 games. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 after their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of a series. A 28-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Pittsburgh Pirates have been crushing left handed pitching this year. Only the Boston Red Sox have a higher weighted on base percentage against lefties than the Pirates. This Pirates team is full of underrated guys like Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco as well as Jung Ho Kang. Adam Conley has been pretty good this year, but the Pirates should pick up several runs in this one. 

The Miami Marlins are averaging 3.78 runs per game against right handed pitching. They are averaging 4.99 runs per game against lefties. They face a hittable lefty in Jon Niese here. Niese was better in his last start, but he hasn't been consistent this year. 

These two bullpens are both among the bottom seven bullpens in the majors. This number is too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Detroit Tigers have had the best offense in baseball in the past two weeks. This certainly doesn't surprise me, as it was only a matter of time until an offense like this was going to break out. 

Hector Santiago has had some regression coming his way for a long time, and it hit last game in Texas. Santiago is a streaky guy, and I'm not sure he'll be able to slow down this red hot Tigers lineup. 

Anibal Sanchez has been awful this year. Sanchez has allowed 4 runs or more in each of his last 5 starts and in 7 of his last 8 starts. His walk rate is way up this year, and opponents are squaring up the ball much more often on his pitches. Until Sanchez proves he is better than this, you have to look to fade him or take the over in his games.

The Angels offense has been much better in the past few weeks.

The over is 9-1 in Sanchez's 10 starts this year. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jose Fernandez has rounded into form of late, and when he is pitching at his best, he is one of the best in the majors. While the Pirates offense has been very good of late, I'll be surprised if they get many against Fernandez.

Gerrit Cole hasn't been quite as good this year, but he has tremendous stuff. Cole is capable of shutting anyone down, and he has shown that in recent games. This Marlins offense is a mess right now with Yelich still getting back in the swing of things and Stanton out injured. 

I believe this has the makings of a pitcher's duel between two young very good pitchers. Look for a lot of quick innings in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies offense isn't very good, but they do have a very good young starter on the mound here in Aaron Nola. Nola is inducing a ton of swings and misses, and his stuff is elite. 

The Washington Nationals offense is great against lefties, but they are in the bottom half of the league in offensive production against right handed starters. 

Joe Ross has very good stuff as well, and this Phillies lineup has a tough time stringing together enough hits to score often on a guy with swing and miss stuff like Ross.

The Phillies bullpen isn't good, but it isn't as bad as expected. The Nationals bullpen is elite. 

The under is 3-0-1 in Ross' last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Thunder/Warriors Game 7 MONEY* The Golden State Warriors proved very clutch in their Game 6 win. Golden State knocked down 21 three-pointers in that game, and that carried them through on the road in Oklahoma City. 

I had the under in that game and that cashed. I'm going with the under again here. The long-term trend is clear: elimination games in the NBA playoffs tend to mean a slower tempo and tighter defense. 

In Game 6, the game stayed well under despite the Warriors hot long range shooting. That's because the tempo was 4 possessions slower than the average of the first five games. That's a significant difference, and I have to think that continues here.

It's win or go home time for both teams. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* In Jeff Locke and Justin Nicolino, we have two very bad left handed starters in this one. 

Locke has been alright at home in his career, but away from home he is pure fade material. Locke had a 5.63 road ERA last year and a 6.15 ERA so far this year. In this one though, he is opposed by a guy who is likely a little worse than he is. Nicolino is a pitch to contact guy who gives up a lot of hard hit balls.

Miami is 8th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Pirates are second in the majors in that same category. 

The Pirates bullpen has been a major weakness this year. The Marlins bullpen has been bad in the past couple weeks also.

The over is 19-7-4 in Locke's last 30 road starts. The over is 4-1 in Nicolino's last 5 home starts. The over is 7-2 in the Pirates last 9 vs. a lefty. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jeff Samardzija is dialed in right now, and it's hard to imagine the Atlanta Braves lineup doing anything to change that. This Braves offense is one of the worst offenses in baseball. They have been particularly bad at home. 

The under is 6-0 in Samardzija's last 6 road starts. He's been throwing his fastball really well lately. His pitch location has been tremendous. The Giants bullpen has also been improved in recent weeks. 

Mike Foltynewicz is improving for the Braves. He has quality stuff, and he is slowly improving his control. The Giants offense did break out at Coors Field this weekend, but Turner Field is a pitcher's park.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres have played two games that went well over the total, but I think this one stays under. The roof will be closed at Chase Field for this one, and that's a big deal. The ball flies much better with the roof open. 

Drew Pomeranz has really come into his own this year. Pomeranz has improved his control and has added in an extra pitch. This guy was always highly touted, and this is the year he became the real deal. 

Archie Bradley has an ERA of just under 2 at Triple A this year, and he's getting a chance to prove he should be in the rotation. What better team to do it against than the San Diego Padres? They arguably have the weakest lineup in baseball. 

Bill Miller is behind the plate here, and that's the single biggest reason for this play. Miller is a terrific under umpire. He'll give both guys the corners a lot here. The under is 37-15-1 in Miller's last 53 Sunday games. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Pittsburgh Pirates are second in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Texas Rangers are 9th in the majors in the same category. 

Francisco Liriano's numbers are much worse this year. His hard contact percentage has gone way up, and his velocity is down a bit. Liriano has a lot of control problems, and he has gotten himself in some big trouble when pitching on the road this year.

Martin Perez isn't a bad pitcher, but this Pittsburgh offense is excellent. Perez has benefited from some good fortune so far this year, and regression should hit soon for him. 

These two bullpens are both in the bottom five in the majors. Both have thrown a lot of innings of late also. I wouldn't trust Perez or Liriano to go deep in the game here, and I don't think the bullpens will be good in relief. 

The over is 7-1 in the Pirates last 8 vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0 in Texas' last 4 vs. a lefty. Take the over. 

*3 Star Warriors/Thunder MONEYMAKER* The public loves to bet the over, and in this one the over is getting about 80% of the public bets. Despite that, the line has held steady and even dropped one half of a point at some books. That's a good sign for the under here. 

Additionally, we have three referees who have more unders than overs so far this year. 

An angle I really like is the under is 41-19 in the last 60 NBA playoff potential elimination games in game six or game seven of a series. Why is this? Normally teams tighten up and the pace slows down a tick. The defense gets better because no one wants to go home. 

These teams can definitely score, but I'm counting on a few less free throws than last game, and 221 is a bunch of points. Take the under in this one. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* Noah Syndergaard has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball this year other than Clayton Kershaw. Syndergaard has absolutely devastating stuff, and his command has gotten much better in the past year. This guy has a tremendous upside.

Syndergaard faces a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that is 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching in the past month. Syndergaard is one of the best, if not the best, right-handed pitcher in baseball right now. I expect him to be great again. The Dodgers lineup has a .178 batting average against Syndergaard. 

Kenta Maeda is a pretty good pitcher as well. He isn't even close to Syndergaard, but this Mets offense is 23rd in wOBA against right handed pitchers in the past month, so I expect him to fare pretty well here as well.

Adam Hamari calls a bunch of strikes behind home plate, and he is a big positive for the under in this one. 

The under is 23-8 in the Dodgers last 31 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 7-3 in the Mets last 10 vs. a right handed starter. Take the under big. TOP Total of the Week

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays put up 7 runs last night. This Toronto offense has underachieved all year, but I think they may be starting to break out. Toronto hits well at home, and they are up against Rick Porcello in this one.

Porcello has a 7.15 ERA when pitching in Toronto. In his last 14 innings pitched in Toronto, he has allowed 17 runs. Toronto should get to him in this one as well.

Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher, but this Boston offense is excellent. The Red Sox are at their best against right handed pitching. I expect them to get scoring chances against him and the Toronto bullpen which has been subpar of late.

A total of only 8.5 with these two teams is too low. Mike DiMuro is behind the plate also, and he is a very good over umpire.

The over is 4-0 in the Jays last 4 home games. The over is 3-0-2 in the Red Sox last 5 Saturday games. The over is 5-0 in DiMuro's last 5 behind home plate. A 12-0 angle. Take the over.  

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Colorado Rockies hit the ball really well last night in Boston against Clay Buchholz and I think they can come home and score a lot on Matt Cain as well. Cain is one of the more extreme fly ball pitchers in the majors, and that's a big negative at Coors Field. Cain has pitched somewhat better of late, but I expect that to change tonight in Colorado.Cain has allowed 14 runs in 8 and 2/3 innings so far this year against Colorado. 

Tyler Chatwood has a career home ERA of 4.83. Chatwood has been pretty good on the road in his career, but he can't seem to figure out Coors Field just yet. The Giants have been on fire of late, but it has been almost completely their pitching staff that has them winning. I expect that to change in this series. This San Francisco offense is better than they have shown so far this year.

The over is 7-1-1 in Cain's last 9 road starts. The over is 4-1 in Cain's last 5 starts vs. the Rockies. Take the over. 

*4 Star Friday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks meet at Chase Field on Friday night. San Diego is dead last in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are much better against left handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are the second ranked team in baseball in wOBA against lefties. Both teams will be up against a lefty in this one. 

Christian Friedrich has always been a guy that walks a bunch of guys, and that's trouble against this Diamondbacks lineup. The Padres bullpen isn't very good this year either, and I expect Arizona to put up plenty of runs here.

Robbie Ray has an ERA over 6 in his career with the roof open at Chase Field, and the roof is slated to be open on Friday night. The ball flies very well in Arizona with the roof open.

The over is 6-0 in the DBacks last 6 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. A 15-0 trend. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jon Niese has been bad all year long, and now he goes into one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball and has to face a Texas lineup that just broke out against the Angels. He'll also have to face 9 position players here instead of 8 with 1 pitcher. Niese is in a tough spot here.

Cole Hamels has a great ERA, but he has stranded 87% of his batters so far this year, and that can't continue for the season as a whole. He is a solid pitcher who isn't quite as dominant as he was a couple years ago. 

The Pirates and Rangers bullpens are both ranked in the bottom 5 of my bullpen rankings. The more these bullpens are in the game, the better it is for the over. Some thunderstorms are supposed to be in the area, which could make the starters leave earlier than normal.

Both teams are good against left handed pitching, and I think this gets past the posted total. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been on fire of late, and I don't expect a visit from Justin Nicolino to cool them off. 

Nicolino has some awful numbers so far this year. He isn't striking anyone out. He has a grand total of 6 strikeouts in 29 and 1/3 innings pitched this year. He has 11 walks. That's just terrible, and this Tampa Bay Rays team is fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. I expect them to get a lot of good rips against Nicolino. Consider this as well: almost 37% of balls hit by opposing batters off Nicolino have been hard hit balls. That is much higher than the league average of 30%. 

Matt Andriese isn't necessarily a bad pitcher, but he definitely isn't as good as his numbers look so far this year. Andriese sports a 2.11 ERA but a 4.77 SIERA and a 4.79 XFIP. Opponents batting average on batted balls in play is just .167. That number will definitely rise in time. Miami's offense ranks in the top ten against righties this year.

Adrian Johnson is behind the plate and I have him rated as a decent over umpire. He calls fewer strikes than the average umpire, and he is likely to make life a little more difficult for these pitchers. 

The over is 6-0 in the Marlins last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in the Rays last 6 games vs a left handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 on turf. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in Johnson's last 6 Wednesday games behind home plate. A 27-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Cardinals have torched Jason Hammel in the past, and the Chicago Cubs have torched Michael Wacha in the past.

These two offenses both rank in the top four in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. I expected both teams to work the count and get in some favorable situations. 

Wacha has been awful in his last two starts, and he is having some mechanical issues.

Hammel has a 5.58 ERA when pitching in St. Louis.

The over is 14-3 in Wacha's last 17 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the Cubs. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts vs. the Cubs. The over is 6-1 in Hammel's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 31-4 trend. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Washington Nationals start Stephen Strasburg here, and he has been great this year. He's always had tremendous stuff, and this year he has had better command of a wide array of pitches. Strasburg is a top end starter. He may be slightly less consistent than some guys, but the Mets offense hasn't been hitting very well of late.

Matt Harvey has been bad this year, but his FIP of 3.63 suggests he has gotten some rotten luck this year. Harvey's velocity is down some, but it isn't to the level where he should just be getting shelled on a nightly basis. He has good numbers against Washington long term.

This number comes from an overadjustment of the total thanks to Harvey's recent struggles.

Vic Carapazza is the umpire here, and that's a very good thing for under bettors. In the past five years, he has called the 7th highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the majors. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank fourth in the majors in weighted on base average this year against left handed pitching. Francisco Liriano has been very erratic this year, and he can't be trusted to pitch well here.

Shelby Miller is a guy that I believe can be trusted to pitch poorly at this point. Miller leads the majors with 25 walks so far this year. He has only 27 strikeouts. That's an awful strikeout/walk ratio right there. Miller is going to give the Pirates opportunities to score here, and the Pirates offense is underrated by many. Obviously McCutchen is good, but Marte is very good and the rest of the lineup is solid.

Both bullpens are very shaky, which could lead to several late runs scoring. The weather has warmed up considerably in Pittsburgh, which means the ball will be carrying a little more here.

The over is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent scores 4 or more runs last game. The over is 2-0-2 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less. The over is 6-0 in the Pirates last 6 Tuesday games. The over is 5-0 in the Pirates last 5 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A 21-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland A's offense has some severe problems right now. They were already without some guys they expected to get some contributions from like Canha and Phegley, but when Josh Reddick went down with an injury that hurt this offense badly. The A's have one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Seattle's Taijuan Walker has been a little inconsistent, but he seems to have taken a definite step forward this year. Walker has tremendous stuff and it is just a matter of time until he becomes a reliable starter for this team. 

Rich Hill is a guy I've been cautious to trust, but the advanced metrics all suggest Hill's very good start this season isn't a fluke. He has changed up his arsenal a bit, and it has worked brilliantly. Hill has an ERA of 2.54 and a FIP of 2.90. 

The under is 6-1-1 in Walker's last 8 starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Seattle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Cavs/Raptors Game 4 MONEY* The Cleveland Cavs have been prolific offensively so far this postseason, but Game 3 was their worst shooting performance in the playoffs thus far by a wide margin. Kyrie Irving was 3/19 from the floor and Kevin Love was 1/9 from the floor. Cleveland shot 35% from the floor as a team.

I don't expect that to happen again. Toronto's defense hasn't been very good on the whole this year, and Cleveland was getting good shots and missing them in Game 3. 

Toronto is much better offensively on their home floor. Guys like Derozan and Lowry have much more confidence getting to the basket when they are playing on their home floor. 

The first three games of this series have all had very high first halves and lower second halves because the game hasn't been close. We should get a closer contest where the scoring doesn't drop off as much late in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* We have two starters who are fully capable of imploding at any point. Ubaldo Jimenez has walked 4 batters or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. Walking that many guys is a recipe for disaster in the big leagues. Jimenez comes into this game pitching in really bad form, and the Angels bats have heated up in the past couple weeks. 

Jered Weaver is throwing 80 mph fastballs and trying to consistently get major leaguers out. Weaver does a better job of it than most guys could with that kind of velocity, but it's only a matter of time until they start squaring it up. 

Baltimore's offense is one of the best in baseball, and the Angels offense is hot right now. This is one of those games where we could easily see big innings from both teams at some point throughout the game. These pitchers have plenty of blow up potential.

This park is a pitcher's park, but it is certainly better for hitters during the day and the wind will be blowing out at 10 mph in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Cincinnati Reds bullpen is just epic bad this year. There is no other way to put it. Cincinnati simply can't find anyone to come in and get outs. The rotation is short-handed now, and John Lamb is reportedly starting this game despite a minor thumb injury on his pitching hand. That's not good at all to try to pitch through, and Seattle is a lineup that hits left-handed pitchers very well. 

Lamb doesn't pitch deep into the game very often, and that means several innings of the awful Reds bullpen. That's definitely a big plus for the over.

Felix Hernandez has been very hittable on the road this year, and his velocity is down a bit right now. The Reds have some power hitters and Hernandez is giving up the long ball this year. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the Mariners last 5 interleague road games. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 interleague games vs a left handed starter. The over is 6-0 in the Reds last 6 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a road team with a 60% or higher road win percentage. The over is 5-0 in Lamb's last 5 on four days of rest. A 33-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Yankees should get a good start from Masahiro Tanaka, who slumped against two solid offenses in his last two home starts. 

He'll go against a much worse offense here, and it will be in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors. Oakland is in a lot more trouble offensively now without Josh Reddick (out with an injury). Oakland already has multiple injuries on offense, and this team wasn't scoring many runs even with Reddick.

Sean Manaea has good stuff and should be a good pitcher on his home field. Manaea is coming off his best big league start in his last outing. He faces a Yankees offense that has been very bad this year against lefties.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Miami Marlins have crushed Tanner Roark in the past couple years. Roark had a 5.79 ERA against Miami last year, and so far this year in 3 starts he has a miserable 8.40 ERA against Miami. 

I would rate Justin Nicolino as one of the worst left-handed starting pitchers in baseball. He has proven nothing in the majors, and he really hasn't even pitched all that well in the minors either. Washington is destroying left handed pitching so far this year. The Nationals are averaging a whopping 5.93 runs per game against left handed pitchers this year.

Both teams should get plenty of scoring opportunities. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers offense wasn't going to struggle for too long. They underachieved early in the year, but this is a really good lineup and I expect them to score a lot this year. Detroit has gotten hot of late and is now 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. 

Tampa Bay just torched the Toronto pitching staff in their series at Toronto, and the Rays come in with lots of momentum. The Rays are first in the majors in home runs, and Anibal Sanchez has been having trouble keeping the ball in the park.

Sanchez has consistently been giving up 4 runs or so in 6 innings, and that's obviously not good enough. His performances have been very consistently bad this year. 

Matt Andriese has pitched well in his first two starts, but those were against the Angels and Oakland. This is a much tougher test for him.

The over is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 7-0-1 in Sanchez's last 8 starts after the team scores 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0-1 in Sanchez's last 5 starts during game one of a series. The over is 4-0-2 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL East. A 36-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco Giants pitching staff has been great lately. Jeff Samardzija gets the start for the Giants in this one, and he has been throwing the ball extremely well. Samardzija was sharp in his last outing at Chase Field in Arizona, and this time around he'll be in San Diego at one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. Samardzija is getting ahead of batters at a great rate lately, and his fastball has been working very well.

James Shields has a great 2.53 ERA in his career against San Francisco. Shields is a guy who uses the park to his advantage very well, and he can usually pitch pretty deep into a game. 

The Padres offense is one of the worst in baseball, and the Giants offense has been inconsistent at best of late. A total of 7 isn't that low in a game played at PetCo Park. 

The under is 9-0 in the Giants last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 following a win. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. the NL West. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in Samardzija's last 5 road starts. The under is 6-0 in Shields' last 6 starts vs. the NL West. A 64-0 angle. Take the under.

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Jon Gray is still an underrated pitcher for the Colorado Rockies. It may be tough for him to put up good numbers at Coors Field, but he has already been doing it on the road. Gray has a career 2.18 ERA on the road, and a 1.38 ERA in two road starts this year. He has dominating stuff, and he is getting better with pitch sequencing as time goes by. 

Michael Wacha has been a great pitcher at home throughout his career with the Cardinals. The Rockies lineup is still solid, but it is far less imposing than it was a couple years ago. Busch Stadium is a good park for pitchers, and Wacha does a great job utilizing that to his benefit.

The Rockies bullpen is improved and the Cardinals bullpen is very good. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Cleveland Indians and Cincinnati Reds square off one more time in this intrastate battle. Cleveland has won the first three games this week, and they look to pull off a sweep here. 

Josh Tomlin has a solid ERA so far this year, but his advanced statistics suggest he has been a bit lucky. Opponents batting average on balls in play is only .250. While I don't think Tomlin is a bad pitcher, I do believe he is a little worse than he has shown so far this year. 

Tim Adleman is a guy who was thrown into the starting rotation faster than anyone expected in Cincinnati, because everyone has been getting injured for the Reds. Adleman hasn't pitched badly in his first three starts, but he has only thrown 16 innings in 3 starts. Adleman only made 3 starts in Triple A before getting jumped up to the bigs. He is a candidate for regression as he has left 84.2% of runners on base this year. 

The Reds bullpen is historically bad, and with Adleman not pitching deep into the game, that plays a big role in why I like this selection. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the Indians last 5 following a win. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. The over is 7-0 in Tomlin's last 7 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The over is 8-0 in Tomlin's last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Reds last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 41-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The New York Yankees offense has finally started showing signs of life after underachieving for a very long time this year. Jacoby Ellsbury is back in the lineup, and he is key to their success. Arizona's offense is strong at home, and the Diamondbacks still have one of the best hitters in the majors in Paul Goldschmitt.

Chase Field's roof is expected to be open for this one. The roof open makes almost a full run of difference in the expected run scoring according to my database. The ball flies much better with the roof open. 

Shelby Miller gets the ball for the Diamondbacks and he has more walks than strikeouts this year. Miller has zero confidence now, and the Yankees are completely capable of putting up a big inning or two against him.

Nate Eovaldi is very inconsistent and he has trouble with the home run ball, which is bad with the roof open here in Phoenix.

The over is 5-0 in Eovaldi's last 5 interleague starts. The over is 3-1-1 in Miller's last 5 home starts. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Thunder/Warriors Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors dropped game one due to some poor shooting numbers. While Oklahoma City's defense had some to do with it, I believe it had more to do with Golden State just not making shots they normally make. The Warriors aren't going to be held to 44% shooting on their home floor very often. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook didn't shoot the ball all that well, and still Oklahoma City scored 108 points last game. 

The regular season meetings were very high scoring, and while the playoffs lead to a slightly slower pace, both of these teams will want to keep pushing the tempo.

Golden State shot only 17 free throws last game. They made only 11. Oklahoma City shot only 68% from the line last game. These are two tremendous free throw shooting teams, and we can expect to see more points from the charity stripe in this game.

The offenses get rolling in this contest. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds bullpen is the worst bullpen in the major leagues in dozens of years. There is no one down there to count on, and as a unit they have a ridiculously bad 6.46 ERA. That's more than a full run worse than the second worst bullpen in baseball.

Brandon Finnegan typically doesn't pitch deep into the game because he struggles with control issues. The Indians are likely to get several innings of chances to score on the Reds bullpen. Cleveland just scored 15 and 13 runs on the Reds the last two days. They probably won't do that again, but I think they can score several here. 

Mike Clevinger makes his first big league start for the Indians. Clevinger isn't a highly prized prospect, and his stuff is only mediocre. The Reds should get chances to score on him throughout this one.

Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is a solid over umpire with a small strike zone.

The over is 3-0-1 in the Indians last 4 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0-1 in Finnegan's last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 15-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers have scored 6 and 10 runs in their last two games. It was only a matter of time until the Tigers offense got going, and I think they should be able to keep it going against Phil Hughes tonight.

Detroit's lineup collectively has a .315 average against Hughes, and Hughes has struggled badly so far this year. I don't expect him to have much success slowing down this Tigers offense tonight.

On the other side, Mike Pelfrey is terrible, and this Twins lineup is showing signs of heating up as well. Minnesota has scored at least 5 runs in each of their last four games. Pelfrey is the type of guy who always puts people on base, so the Twins will have their chances again here.

The over is 6-0-2 in the Twins last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Tuesday games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 7-0 in the Tigers last 7 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 3-0-1 in Hughes' last 4 starts vs. Detroit. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels have been hitting the ball better in this series so far, but I don't expect it to continue here. This Angels lineup is extremely weak. Mike Trout is a star and Calhoun and Pujols are solid, but outside of that this Angels order is very weak. The depth of this lineup is among the worst in baseball.

Felix Hernandez isn't quite what he was in the past, but he still has good stuff, and he is pitching at home where he is tremendous. Hernandez has a sparkling 1.43 ERA in his last 12 starts vs. the Angels as well, so he has dominated this team.

Hector Santiago has improved a lot in the past couple years, and I like his chances of slowing down Seattle here.

Mark Ripperger is one of the best under umpires in the business. He will give both pitchers the corners and we should see plenty of strikeouts. The under is 8-1-1 in his last 10 games behind home plate. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* These two starters are the primary reason for the over play here. Cesar Vargas isn't a highly touted guy, and he's been really bad in his first couple starts on the road. Milwaukee's offense has been crushing the baseball in the last few games. 

Zach Davies has been consistently bad this year. The over is 4-1 in his last 5 starts. Davies is walking almost exactly as many guys as he is striking out right now, and that's a terrible sign. The Padres offense isn't good, but they have been better in recent days and I think they score several here.

Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom 6 or 8 in the league, so late runs shouldn't come as a surprise in this one either. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants have played two straight games that have finished under the total despite the roof being open at Chase Field. While both of those games were low scoring, the final scores weren't quite indicative of how many scoring chances there were. 

Both days there were a bunch of guys left on base by both teams, and on Saturday there were 3 balls hit off the wall that were nearly home runs. 

Jake Peavy and Patrick Corbin are both having problems right now. Peavy just isn't good anymore. He is too old and he's lost his stuff. His fastball is much slower and his walk rate is the highest of his career right now. Corbin has pitched four times with the roof open at Chase Field and he has a 6.75 ERA in those games. 

The roof is slated to be open on Saturday with temperatures of 98 degrees and winds blowing out at 15 mph. That's perfect conditions for the ball to fly very well. Both teams should plate several runs in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Saturday Night KNOCKOUT* I had the over in last night's Tigers/Orioles game, and that play failed badly as the final finished 1-0. I don't think that's going to happen again here. In the matchup last night between Tillman and Verlander there were two pitchers capable of throwing great games on certain occasions. Anibal Sanchez and Mike Wright do not seem to fit that mold right now.

Anibal Sanchez has zero confidence right now and his mechanics are off. Sanchez has a 5.89 ERA, and it isn't because of bad luck. Sanchez just hasn't been good. He is walking 5.4 batters per nine innings which is easily a career high. He's become a guy who gives up a lot of homers the last couple years, and this Orioles lineup definitely has some great home run hitters.

Mike Wright hasn't proven himself in the big leagues yet. While it's possible he will end up being a good pitcher, I don't think he is ready yet. Wright doesn't miss enough bats.

These are two great offenses and with these guys on the mound, I expect to see a lot of runs. 

The over is 18-6-3 in Sanchez's last 27 starts. The over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two in Baltimore. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense is scoring almost 5 runs per game at home this year. San Francisco's offense is always much better away from home, since they play in such a strong pitcher's park.

Chase Field is a tremendous park for overs with the roof open in the warm weather. The roof is slated to be open for this one with a game time temperature of 99 degrees. The ball should be flying extremely well here.

Tripp Gibson is the umpire here, and my database ranks him in the top 25% of over umpires in the majors. 

Jeff Samardzija has an ERA above 5 when pitching in Arizona and Shelby Miller has been a mess all year. Miller is walking way too many people, and the Giants have the hitters to make him pay for his mistakes. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Oakland A's and Tampa Bay Rays both have bad lineups. These are two offenses that I expect to see scuffle frequently throughout the course of the season. 

While Tampa Bay is better against lefties than righties, Rich Hill has really impressed me so far this year. Hill hasn't given up more than 4 hits in any of his last five starts. The Rays are likely to have a tough time stringing together hits.

Jake Odorizzi is a guy I'm high on right now. Odorizzi has always been good at home, and now he is maturing into a complete pitcher. He is good at keeping the ball down and avoiding the big innings.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Baltimore Orioles rank second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Detroit Tigers rank 12th. 

Baltimore's offense is going to score a lot of runs this year. The Orioles have power hitters and good on base percentage guys and that's a nice combination to have. Detroit hasn't hit as well as expected so far this year, but it is only a matter of time.

Justin Verlander has been inconsistent this year, and his best days are clearly behind him. Chris Tillman is having a great start to the season, but I don't see him keeping up this kind of pace. Tillman just doesn't have good enough stuff. 

With these two offenses, I'll gladly take the over at this low number. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* This is a matchup two strong pitchers, and these are two offenses that are rather inconsistent. At times this year both the Mets and the Dodgers have looked good on offense, but at other times these offenses have been terrible. They'll have tough challenges in this one.

Noah Syndergaard is one of the top ten pitchers in baseball without any question. He is striking out 12.5 batters per nine innings which is great stuff. Syndergaard isn't going to back down from a challenge either. He pitched great at Dodger Stadium in the playoffs last year. The Mets bullpen is one of the top three in the majors also.

Kenta Maeda has been great so far this year, and I expect the Mets to struggle for a while against him with his deceptive delivery. 

The under is 4-0-1 in the Dodgers last 5 games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 8-0-1 in Mark Ripperger's last 9 games as the home plate umpire. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Tampa Bay Rays offense is awful against right handed pitching. Taijuan Walker has the stuff to have a breakout season for the Mariners, and he's off to a great start. Tampa Bay is able to put up runs against lefties, but against quality right-handers this Rays team is often shut down.

Chris Archer isn't off to a great start this year, but he has shown signs of coming into form of late. Archer has tremendous stuff, and I believe in him long term. The Mariners aren't a great hitting team, and Archer definitely has the ability to throw a gem. Archer has a great 2.99 ERA in day games in his career.

An under umpire and get away day are good factors too. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays offense is going to break out at some point this year, but Madison Bumgarner is a really tough guy to do it against. Bumgarner will want to play the role of stopper here as the Giants have been skidding lately. He has proven very good in this role in the past.

Marcus Stroman has quality stuff, and he has an ERA (3.08) more than half a run lower during day games in his career than night games. With this being a day game after a night game and get away day I do expect some top players to be out of the lineup in this one. 

Tony Randazzo is the umpire here, and he has been on a nice 10-1 run to the under in his last 11 games behind the plate. His big strike zone should help both pitchers a lot.

The under is 10-0-1 in the Blue Jays last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0-2 in the Blue Jays last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 interleague games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the NL West. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in Stroman's last 4 starts after the team allowed 2 runs or less. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague home games. The under is 4-0-1 in Bumgarner's last 5 interleague starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 50-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago White Sox start Miguel Gonzalez in this one. Gonzalez was released by the Orioles. Gonzalez is a guy who works hard on the mound, but his stuff just isn't that good. His stuff was never anything better than average, and now he is in decline. Chicago is having a nice season, but they have a weakness at the back of the rotation. Gonzalez is getting a shot, but I don't expect things to go well for him in a hitter-friendly park like this one.

Colby Lewis isn't good, and he definitely isn't good when pitching at home. In Lewis' last 35 starts at home he has a 5.54 ERA. I expect the White Sox to get to him, and then the Texas pen is one of the worst in the league right now as well.

Warm weather should help the ball carry well on Monday night in Texas.

The over is 3-0-1 in the White Sox last 4 road games. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 4-0-1 in Lewis' last 5 Monday starts. The over is 5-0-1 in Lewis' last 6 starts after Texas scored 5 runs or more in the previous game. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Houston Astros are a team that swings and misses a lot. Corey Kluber is a guy who misses a lot of bats. A free swinging team like Houston doesn't matchup very well against a guy like Kluber.

Kluber appears to have regained his top form as well. After a stretch of subpar performance for a while, Kluber has locked things in of late. He has thrown two great games against Detroit in the past few weeks. 

Mike Fiers isn't necessarily a guy I'm really high on, but he is better than he has pitched so far this year at least. Houston's bullpen is also significantly better than their numbers so far this year would indicate. 

The under is 21-5-2 in the last 28 meetings between these two teams. The under is 6-2-1 in Kluber's last 9 starts. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Boston Red Sox offense is the single best in the majors against right handed pitching. Sonny Gray is a good pitcher, but I'm not sure he is as good as his numbers from the past couple years suggest. Gray's peripherals suggest he got a bit lucky in those years, and now he goes to a hitter-friendly park against a red hot offense. Gray isn't in his best form right now.

Clay Buchholz is a tough one to figure out, because he can be so good or he can be terrible. Buchholz has consistently been terrible against Oakland though. He has an ERA of 6.81 in 8 career starts against the A's. 

The wind will be blowing out at about 15 mph here.

The over is 5-0 in Gray's last 5 road starts. The over is 4-1 in Buchholz's last 5 starts vs. Oakland. I'm taking the over. 

*4 Star Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox take center stage on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. Steven Wright has pitched well this year, but I don't think he's as good as his numbers this year would lead you to believe. Wright is nearly 32 years old and struggled to make it into the majors for a long time. He had mediocre Triple A numbers for many years and had a 4.04 ERA last year. His 1.67 ERA this year won't stay for too much longer.

Luis Severino was very fortunate last year. Severino had a 2.89 ERA but a FIP of 4.37. His FIP is 4.44 this year and his ERA is 6.31. Severino has potential, but right now he is being crushed by the long ball. 

Boston is first in the majors against right handed pitching, and the Yankees offense is better than they have shown so far this year.

I expect both teams to get on the board plenty of times in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels and the Tampa Bay Rays are two of the worst offenses in the majors against right handed pitching. The Angels are averaging only 3.43 runs per game against right handed pitching and a .237 batting average. The Rays have been even worse. Tampa Bay has a .211 batting average against righties and they are averaging only 3.08 runs per game.

Matt Andriese and Nick Tropeano are certainly not stars, but they don't need to be against these offenses. The Rays bullpen ranks as league average in ERA while the Angels rank as the fourth best bullpen in the majors by that measure. 

The under is 17-6-4 in the Rays last 27 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0-1 in Tropeano's last 5 starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies have been piling up the runs lately, so we get a total that is a little too high here based on recency bias from the oddsmakers. San Francisco's Johnny Cueto should be a great fit for this park, and I expect him to pitch very well at home through the season. Cueto is at his best early in the year. 

Jon Gray is a guy who is going to be very good. Gray might struggle at times in Coors Field, but he has elite stuff and is a guy who can shut down a lot of lineups away from Coors Field.

The ball shouldn't be flying well here with a high dewpoint and a chance for a passing shower in San Francisco on Saturday afternoon. 

I see a close low scoring game all the way. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jeff Locke isn't a good pitcher, and he is a really bad pitcher on the road. Adam Wainwright was a great pitcher a few years ago, but he has a lot to prove about what kind of pitcher he is right now. Wainwright has an ERA above 6 on the year.

Locke has allowed Cardinals hitters to have a .381 OBP against him in his career. Wainwright has been amazing over the course of his career, but one team that has given him trouble is the Pirates. The Pirates have a .351 OBP against Wainwright. 

Dana DeMuth is a good over umpire in this one, and the weather is a big help too. The temperature is expected to reach 85 degrees and the wind will be blowing out at about 15 mph.

The over is 5-0-1 in Locke's last 6 starts during game 2 of a series. The over is 4-0 in Locke's last 4 starts when his opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0-2 in the Cardinals last 8 following a loss. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 Saturday games. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. A 24-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers meet early on Saturday afternoon. Detroit starts Mike Pelfrey, and he is pure fade material right now. The oddsmakers know it though, and have made the Rangers a pretty big favorite despite having the shaky A.J. Griffin on the mound here. 

Griffin has pitched well so far this year, but looking back at his history you'll see that he has been very up and down. This Detroit lineup is far better than they have looked of late, and I think they'll bounce out of this slump very soon.

Marquez is the umpire here and that's good for the over. The wind will be blowing out at 15 mph during the game. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Cincinnati Reds have the worst bullpen in the majors. In fact, they have the worst bullpen the major leagues have seen in many years. Cincinnati's bullpen has allowed at least one run in 23 straight games. That's truly mind boggling. Milwaukee's bullpen is the second worst pen in my bullpen rankings. If both bullpens end up in the game for a while, that's great for over bettors.

Tyler Cravy starts for Milwaukee and he had a 5.70 ERA last year in the majors. He has only been mediocre in Triple A, and I see no reason to believe he'll be a good big leaguer anytime soon. Tim Adleman starts for Cincinnati. He only made 3 starts in Triple A before being moved up to the majors. He has decent stuff, but I don't expect him to last late into the game.

The over is 12-1 in the Brewers last 13 following a loss. The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Cincinnati. A 20-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Friday Fast CASH* The Cleveland Cavaliers just set a record for most made 3's in a game with 25. Also, they put down 18 of them in game one. Cleveland is shooting well over 50% from long range in this series so far. Cleveland is good from long range, but they can't keep shooting it that well. 

Atlanta had the best defensive efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference this year, and I expect a strong defensive effort from them in front of their home crowd and down 2-0. The Hawks offense has had trouble getting open looks against this Cavs defense in key moments during this series and even in the regular season.

The tempo in the first couple games was about 92 possessions per game, which is very slow. With any kind of normal shooting numbers, that makes the under look very intriguing. 

The public is taking the over and the line is still dropping. I'm on the under in this one. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Two young starters in this one, and I think we see plenty of runs. Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best over umpires in all of baseball. Neither pitcher will be getting the corners in this one.

The Red Sox offense is tremendous against right handed pitchers. They are scoring 6 runs per game against right handed starters on average so far this year. The White Sox will be starting Erik Johnson here, and I don't believe he has staying power in the big leagues. Johnson doesn't have that pitch to put away the opposition.

Henry Owens has more potential, but he walks too many guys for my liking, and Emmel will make that difficult on him.

The over is 6-0 in Owens' last 6 road starts. The over is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 during game 3 of a series. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less. The over is 7-0 in Johnson's last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. The over is 8-0-1 in Johnson's last 9 when his opponent scores 5 or more in their previous game. The over is 2-0-2 in Johnson's last 4 home starts. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB BEST Bet* It's Chase Anderson vs. Alfredo Simon here and that should mean a lot of runs here. That's not the only reason to like the over though, since these are the two worst bullpens in the majors as well.

Chase Anderson has potential, but in his last couple starts he has been absolutely rocked, and in recent quotes he sounds like he has lost some confidence. 

Alfredo Simon has a 13.50 ERA on the year, and he looks like a guy who has lost his stuff in a big way in the past year or so. He is almost 35 years old, and his velocity isn't very impressive.

Both starters have meltdown potential like crazy, and these bullpens are capable of giving up runs in a hurry.

The over is 11-1 in the Brewers last 12 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings at Cincinnati between these two. A 22-2 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Adam Conley threw a no hitter through 7 and 2/3 innings in his last game. He threw more pitches in that game than he has thrown in any other game in his career. Conley is improving and I like his potential, but I see this as a tough spot for him. Most pitchers have a "letdown" spot after that kind of performance, and a youngster coming off a big workload is a prime candidate for that.

Robbie Ray is a solid, but unspectacular lefty for Arizona. Miami smashes left-handed pitching, as does Arizona. These two teams are very comfortable against the lefties, and that's a big reason for this play.

The weather should be nice enough for the roof to be open and the wind will be blowing out here. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers lineup is very good, and it would be tough to find a better first five in any other batting order in the majors. Cleveland's offense is just slightly better than the league average against right-handed pitching. They are certainly capable of scoring several against a subpar pitcher.

Anibal Sanchez has all sorts of mechanical problems right now, and his confidence is gone. The Indians lit him up a couple weeks ago, and I don't see any reason to believe he'll quiet them down in this game. 

Corey Kluber is a great pitcher, but the Tigers have been very tough on him throughout his career. Detroit hitters collectively have an impressive .318 average against Kluber. 

The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 following a loss. The over is 6-0-1 in Sanchez's last 7 Wednesday starts. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team that doesn't have a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 starts vs. the Tigers. The over is 4-0 in home plate umpire Gabe Morales' last 4 games involving the Tigers and 4-0 in his last 4 games involving the Indians. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Oakland A's and the Seattle Mariners finish their three game series on Wednesday afternoon. This is a game I was watching for the under, and when it went to 7.5 that was enough for me to pull the trigger.

Sean Manaea is Oakland's top pitching prospect. After a shaky first start, I like his chances of pitching well in this second start of his career. Seattle is a little bit below league average against lefties.

The Oakland offense is terrible, and Felix Hernandez has tremendous numbers against this team. Collectively, their OBP against Felix is only .261. 

Both bullpens rank in the top ten in the majors and this is a get away day game with an under umpire in Adam Hamari. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Sonny Gray and the Oakland A's host Hisashi Iwakuma and the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday. Both of these guys are coming off rough starts, and that's what gives us value on the under in this one. 

There's nothing about the Oakland lineup that scares anyone. Oakland may well have the worst lineup in the American League. Seattle's offense is improved, but they are about league average on offense still.

Both lineups have an on base percentage of less than .300 against the opposing pitcher in this one. The Mariners have a .265 OBP against Gray and the A's have a .287 OBP against Iwakuma.

Dan Bellino is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the Week* This total is a full run too low. To start with, we have Chad Fairchild as the umpire here, and he ranks in my database in the top 25 umpires as far as fewest strikes called in the past two years, so that is helpful to the over.

Jeff Samardzija has been making too many mistake pitches inside the strike zone so far this year. The Reds offense is not spectacular, but they do still have some offensive talent. Joey Votto had a big hit last night, and there is no way he is going to continue to slump the way he has in the first month of the season. Cincinnati should get scoring chances.

San Francisco's offense has been on fire of late. Only twice in their last ten games have they scored less than 4 runs. The Giants have scored 7 runs or more in four of those last ten games. This Giants offense is very good, especially when they are on the road. They are playing in a ballpark that is much more hitter-friendly than their home park here.

Cincinnati's bullpen is the worst bullpen I've seen in a very long time. This Reds bullpen is just awful. The numbers they are putting up across the board are worst in the majors by a mile. Moscot isn't anything special as the starter, and once he goes out of the game, things look even worse for Cincinnati.

The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 road games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 10-1 in their last 11 overall. The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games. The over is 4-0-2 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Cincinnati. The over is 5-0 in Fairchild's last 5 games behind home plate. A 38-1 angle. Take the over big. TOP Total of the Week. 

*3 Star MLB Monday MONEY* The San Diego Padres offense has hit left handed pitching well this year, but they rank dead last in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rockies lineup is good, but they aren't great away from home. 

Jon Gray is an up and coming star. While he needs to improve his command, Gray has all the tools to be a very good pitcher for this Rockies team. He faces the weakest offense he'll face all year.

James Shields is a quality pitcher who eats up a lot of innings and does a good job keeping his team in the game.

This one is played in San Diego, which is one of the best pitcher parks in the majors. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Kansas City Royals offense is in a deep slump right now, and I don't like their chances of busting out of it against Taijuan Walker.

Walker is a breakout candidate this year, and he has pitched very well so far this season. Walker has been ability to limit the amount of free passes this year. He has better command of his strikeout pitches now than he has had at any other point in his career.

Ian Kennedy is off to a solid start to the year, and I think he can have a quality year for the Royals this year. The Seattle offense is improved, but they still aren't great.

These are two of the top five bullpens in my rankings, so I expect good work in the late innings. 

The under is 8-0 in the Royals last 8 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 2-0-2 in Kennedy's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Walker's last 4 starts. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cardinals and Nationals meet in what should be a low scoring game on Sunday afternoon. Carlos Martinez has turned into a nice starting pitcher, and while Max Scherzer hasn't been at his best recently, it is just a matter of time before he turns things around.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings has the single highest strike percentage called in the majors in the past 7 years. Obviously, that's very helpful to the under. Both Scherzer and Martinez are guys who can punch out a lot of batters, and Eddings has a very high strikeout to walk ratio.

Look for a pitcher's duel here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* I rate the Milwaukee Brewers as the second worst bullpen in the majors according to my numbers. Miami's bullpen ranks right in the middle of the pack. Tom Koehler is much worse on the road than at home. Wily Peralta has absolutely no confidence in himself right now, and he has been getting crushed by just about everyone this year. 

This is a game where I think big innings are likely on each side. The early sharp money has sided with the over, and I agree with that. I think we'll see plenty of runs. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels offense has been dreadful against right handed pitching this year. The Angels have been pretty good against lefties. Derek Holland has really struggled with this Angels team in his career. 

Matt Shoemaker isn't fooling anyone this year. He seems to be having problems with his mechanics, and that is never a good thing. Shoemaker relies heavily on deception, and right now that isn't working.

These two bullpens are really bad. A lot of scoring late in this one should come as no surprise. 

The over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two in Texas. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Friday Night MONEY* The Indiana Pacers collapsed in Toronto in the 4th quarter in Game 5. The Pacers had that game and gave it away. Now, they have their back up against the wall down 3-2 in the series. 

This has been a tightly contested series where the two offenses have struggled to find any real consistency. The tempo is slow in this series because Toronto plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the NBA. 

Elimination games tend to lead to unders. The under sits at a little over 60% in potential elimination games in the NBA playoffs in the past seven years. This total hasn't been adjusted downward by the oddsmakers, so I'm grabbing the under in what should be a tight game.

The under is 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 road games. The under is 8-2 in the Pacers last 10 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chase Field roof will be open again on Thursday night, and I'll once again be on the over when the Cardinals take on the Diamondbacks. I've gotten the win from the last two days with the over, and the over also cashed in game one of this series when I didn't have a play on the game. I believe this fourth game of the series will also go over the posted total.

Chase Field is a totally different park with the roof open. The ball flies extremely well with the open roof. Those long fly ball outs become home runs.

Michael Wacha is a good pitcher, but he is much better when pitching at home than on the road. Rubby De La Rosa is extremely inconsistent, and I don't think he'll put a second straight strong start together. If you look at his career numbers, the Cardinals have crushed him in the past.

The over is 5-0 in the Cardinals last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 4-0 in Wacha's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Diamondbacks last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. The over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 games between these teams. A 28-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Los Angeles Angels start Nick Tropeano here. Tropeano has a great ERA so far this year, but I'm skeptical of his ability to keep up his current level. Tropeano doesn't have high end stuff, and he has been inconsistent in the past. He has also faced Oakland, Minnesota, and Seattle in his first three starts. The Royals will be the best offense he has gone against yet. 

Chris Young is almost 37 years old and his stuff is declining. Young has done a nice job for the Royals, but I think his good run is coming to an end. Young gives up a bunch of fly balls, and the Angels certainly have some power hitters in their lineup. 

Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is an over umpire who won't give these guys the corners. 

With two starting pitchers with a lot of question marks, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals have gone over the posted total in the first two games in this series, and I think this one will go over as well. Chase Field's roof is slated to be open for this one, and that's a huge deal. The ball flies extremely well with the roof open, and I believe the roof being open is worth almost a full run to the total.

Adam Wainwright and Patrick Corbin are both good pitchers, but both are trying to recover from major injuries. Both of these guys have been less than stellar so far this year. As they try to work out the kinks, it's been apparent that they won't be quite as good as they were in the past. Wainwright in particular has dropped off quite a bit.

With the roof open, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a great park for hitters with the roof open. Long-term data suggests the roof being open is worth at least one full run to the total in Arizona. 

Shelby Miller has been a mess this year. He's walking all kinds of batters, and the Cardinals have plenty of patient hitters. Arizona's offense is very capable of scoring runs at home, especially with the roof open and the ball flying well. 

The Cardinals have given Carlos Martinez great run support, and Miller is putting so many people on right now. 

For the roof being open, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays host the Baltimore Orioles for a second straight night. Baltimore was shut out by the Rays on Monday night. While this Orioles offense is very good, I think they could struggle again here against Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi has excellent stuff and I expect a breakout season from him this year. Odorizzi has great splits at home in his career.

Ubaldo Jimenez can sometimes struggle with control, but he'll get a lot of help here from Ron Kulpa being the home plate umpire. Kulpa has the single best under record in baseball in the past ten years. Kulpa is a strike calling machine, and Jimenez and Odorizzi will both be getting the corners in this one.

Baltimore's bullpen is great and their defense is excellent as well. Tampa Bay is one of the worst offense in the league against right handed pitching. 

The under is 7-0-1 in the Orioles last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 after giving up 2 runs or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL East. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Jimenez's last 4 road starts. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL East. 

The under is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in the Rays last 5 Tuesday games. The under is 3-0-1 in Odorizzi's last 4 on turf. The under is 2-0-2 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 51-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Rich Hill has been having a nice year, but I don't expect him to quiet this Detroit lineup. The Tigers offense is excellent. They slumped for the 3 game series against Cleveland, but they were back in a big way last night. Detroit is going to score a lot of runs this year.

The Oakland offense isn't very good, but Mike Pelfrey has a way of making bad offenses look good. Quite frankly, Pelfrey is a total gas can right now. Pelfrey has been stranding runners at an epic rate and his performances have been much worse than his pitching lines would indicate. Pelfrey is going to get crushed soon. You just can't count on leaving the bases loaded constantly as he has done this year.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Cavs and Pistons are playing this series at an extremely slow tempo. The average pace here has been 89.08 possessions so far this series. That's the slowest first round series in the playoffs by a wide margin so far this year. 

The shooting numbers have actually been good in this series or there would have been some very low scoring games. The total has been adjusted downward slightly in this game, but it isn't enough to keep me off the under.

The public is 62% on the over thus far and the line hasn't moved up. 

I had this line projected at 194.5, so I see clear value here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Warriors/Rockets Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors haven't shot the ball all that well in this series so far. Stephen Curry is expected back for this game, and I think he gives this Warriors team a major shot in the arm. The tempo is always going to be quick when these two teams meet, and there should be a lot of free throws attempted here.

The public is 67% on the under at this time, but the line is moving up, which is a good sign of sharp money on the over. 

The Rockets defense isn't very good, and the Warriors obviously have the best offense in the league. Golden State should be ready for a big game offensively. Houston will get to the line more at home. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The Los Angeles Angels offense is very weak outside of Mike Trout. Trout is obviously a stud, but there is very little help for him in this lineup. Seattle has gotten a little better on offense this year, but they still have holes in their lineup. 

Wade Miley has been hit hard this year, but he has a long history that suggests he is better than his numbers this year appear. Matt Shoemaker is much better at home.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and there isn't a better under umpire in the game than him. Miller has a massive strike zone and he loves to ring batters up.

A very interesting note here: both of these pitchers have much better splits in day games in their career vs. night games. Wade Miley has a 3.41 ERA in day games (4.27 at night). Matt Shoemaker has a 2.72 ERA in day games (3.94 at night). 

The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.3 or higher. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. 

The under is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of the series. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 40-0 angle. 

Take the under big. TOP Play of the Week. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Eickhoff and Peralta start for the Phillies and Brewers here. Eickhoff has slightly deceptive stuff, but he should regress to the mean after an excellent start. The Brewers still have several good bats in their lineup.

Wily Peralta is a mess right now. Peralta has spoken recently about his loss of confidence, and he is putting people on base at an amazingly high rate. 

I'm not high on either starter, and then the bullpens are just awful. These are two of the five worst bullpens in baseball. 

Jim Wolf is the umpire here and he rates an over umpire with a smaller than average strike zone. 

The over is 7-1 in Peralta's last 8 starts. The over is 9-2-2 in Wolf's last 13 behind home plate. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night 100% CRUSHER* The Portland Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers meet in game 3 of their series on Saturday night. 

Los Angeles completely shut down Portland's offense in the first two games of the series. Based on both this series so far this year and the past encounters, it appears that Chris Paul is just a very tough matchup for Damian Lillard. Lillard has had a difficult time getting things going against Paul in the past. 

One thing that few realize is how good this Clippers defense is this year. The Clippers rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are tied with Golden State in his measure. 

There has been one game all year between these two teams (in 6 meetings) that has gone over this total and that was game one of this series based on 3 late tough 3 pointers falling in the last minute of a blowout.

The tempo of this series has been relatively slow and that should continue.

The under is 6-0 in the Blazers last 6 Saturday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. An 18-0 angle. Take the under.  

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Chase Field roof will be open for this game, and that's very important. Chase Field is a hitter's paradise with the roof open because of the dry heat. The ball flies extremely well in these conditions.

Juan Nicasio takes on Rubby De La Rosa here. Nicasio had a great spring, but he has been shaky in his last couple games, and this is his toughest spot of the year thus far.

De La Rosa has been much worse when pitching at Arizona than anywhere else. I believe that is because he really struggles when the roof is open at Chase Field. De La Rosa has a very high 5.58 ERA at Chase Field in his career. 

The over is 6-0 in the Pirates last 6 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a right handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 7-0-1 in De La Rosa's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs. the NL Central. A 37-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Saturday NBA Fast CASH* The Charlotte Hornets couldn't have possibly played worse defense in the first two games of this series. Miami put on an absolute shooting clinic. The Heat scored 1.35 points per possession over the first two games. To put that in perspective, Golden State was the most efficient offense in the NBA in the regular season. They averaged 1.12 points per possession. 

Miami can't keep shooting the ball that well every game. Charlotte should dig deep in this one, especially with it being at home. 

Additionally, the pace of this series has been the single slowest pace of any series in the NBA playoffs. If that continues, and shooting percentages normalize, this total is far too high.

Look for a return to normal here. Take the under.