*3 Star Play Under* Last night's contest between these two got crazy especially late in the game, but I think this one will be much lower scoring.

Before last night, the Arizona Diamondbacks had seen six of their last seven games stay under 7.5 runs total. The Cardinals have seen four of their last eight stay under this total as well.

The Diamondbacks are 23rd in wOBA against lefties this year, and Jose Quintana is really pitching well. Quintana has a 1.52 ERA and a 2.85 FIP in his last five starts. I expect him to pitch well here against the DBacks. 

Merrill Kelly has been tremendous this season. Kelly has allowed 2 runs or less in eight of his last nine starts. Kelly has done a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark this year, and he is a strike thrower in general. 

CB Bucknor has great strikeout/walk rates in the last couple years, and I rate him as a decent under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles topped the Boston Red Sox 15-10 last night in an epic scoring fest. I'm not expecting like that in this one, but I do think 8.5 is too short in this situation. 

Both teams rank in the top ten in the majors in wOBA in the last two weeks. The Orioles have a lot of youngsters who have been heating up of late. Guys like Mountcastle, Rutschman, Hays, and the rest are tough outs. 

Michael Wacha has a great ERA on the year, but the advanced metrics suggest he has been very lucky. He has left 82% of runners on base, which is just unheard of. He has a SIERA of 4.27 and is going to regress at some point. The Orioles lineup has a whopping .491 wOBA against Wacha in 53 at bats. 

Kyle Bradish may be a good pitcher in the majors in time, but right now he isn't very good. Bradish is allowing nealry 2 home runs per nine innings and he walks nearly 4 batters per nine innings. 

A temperature in the upper 80's and a wind blowing out about 8 mph to center and left center field helps here too.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Not only are Kyle Bradish and Yusei Kikuchi enduring rough seasons, but they have bad recent histories against these respective opponents. Bradish is 1-4 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Bradish went up against the Blue Jays on June 13. He gave up five earned runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings in an 11-1 loss. Kikuchi, who is 4-6 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, faced Baltimore a week ago. He surrendered five earned in five innings on six hits and three walks. The Orioles slugged three homers against him. Overall, Kikuchi has a .361 wOBA allowed against Baltimore in his career. Kikuchi is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts versus Baltimore this season. 

The Orioles were held in check by Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen yesterday. But they still have scored six or more runs in seven of their last 12 games. Toronto ranks in the top-five in runs, batting average and OPS. 

 The past seven meetings between these two teams in Toronto have resulted in six Overs and one push.  Take the Over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Tigers and White Sox managed a combined 10 runs on Saturday. But make no mistake these are struggling offenses. The Tigers average a major league-low 3.1 runs per game. If you discount a rare 9-run performance against the Rays and Detroit is averaging 1.8 runs in its last nine games. The White Sox are averaging 3.1 runs in their past six games while missing two of their key bats with Tim Anderson and Luis Robert both injured. 

Yet the total is fairly high because of a starting pitching matchup of Tyler Alexander versus Lance Lynn. Alexander has a 3.83 ERA. However, he's coming off an excellent performance against the Guardians this past Tuesday where he pitched a season-high seven innings while giving up two runs on seven hits. Alexander has a 3.38 ERA in his last three starts. The Under has cashed during each of his last six road starts. Alexander normally doesn't pitch deep into games. But Detroit relievers have the fifth-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors.

Lynn came off the injured list too early and paid the price. He's 2-5 with a 5.88 ERA on the season. Lynn, though, has started to get back to speed. He's been respectable during his last four starts. During this span, he blanked the Guardians for six innings and held the Royals to one earned run in six innings. Lynn can hold his own against bad offenses. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dominant starting pitching isn't required for an Under to play out when the teams are the Tigers and White Sox.  The Tigers have the worst offense in baseball ranking last in runs, homers and OPS. They have scored four or fewer runs in 17 of their last 20 games and are averaging 1.7 runs in their last four games. Detroit just struck out 14 times to the Guardians in a 4-3 extra inning loss Thursday. Cleveland starter Zach Plesac had seven strikeouts. Plesac is not a high strikeout pitcher with 90 in 114 innings. The Tigers have struck out the second-highest number of times in the American League.  Now Detroit draws White Sox righty Michael Kopech, who has a 3.14 home ERA. The Under is 43-19-5 (69%) the last 67 times the Tigers have gone against a righty starter. The White Sox are in a scoring slump, too. They've produced fewer than four runs a game in seven of their last eight games. Chicago is averaging 2.7 runs in its last four games.

The Under has cashed in nine of the White Sox's last 12 games.  Lefty Daniel Norris is slated to start for the Tigers. He has a 4.59 career ERA with the Tigers. The White Sox have the second- highest batting average in the majors against southpaws, but rank 11th in slugging percentage.

Overall, the White Sox rank 18th in runs and 25th in homers through Wednesday. This is likely to be a bullpen game for the Tigers, which is fine since Detroit has the fifth-lowest bullpen ERA in baseball at 3.20. The Tigers won't have to face star shortstop Tim Anderson, out with a broken finger. There's a slight breeze in the forecast and that's for the wind to be blowing in at 5-6 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Shane McClanahan is firmly in the American Cy Young Award discussion. He might even be the favorite with a 10-4 record, 2.07 ERA and 0.83 WHIP, which is the lowest in baseball. McClanahan has the fourth-lowest ERA in the majors and is tied for the fourth-most strikeouts.  McClanahan is in good position to turn in another dominant performance facing Detroit, which has the worst offense in the league ranking last in runs, homers and OPS. The Tigers are averaging a puny 2.7 runs in their last nine games.  

Garrett Hill gets the start for Detroit. He's been better at home where he's 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA. McClanahan's road ERA is 1.62. Hill goes against a Rays offense that is bottom-10. Hill is backed by a strong Detroit relief corps that has the fourth-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. Tampa Bay has scored fewer than four runs in nine of its last 13 games.  Both hurlers will be aided pitching at spacious, pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. The forecast also is calling for winds to be blowing in at 7-to-8 mph.  

Take the Under. 

*3 Star Play on Over* This total is too low given Toronto's high-caliber offense and Kevin Gausman not being in good form lately. The Blue Jays have the highest batting average in baseball at .265. They entered this week ranked third in runs and on-base percentage. Toronto has scored at least four runs in 13 of its last 16 games.  Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen is decent, but he's a low-innings pitcher. Only twice in his last 10 starts has he gone more than five innings. He has a 3.90 ERA in night games. Rasmussen has to contend with a red-hot Vladimir Guerrero, who has a 12-game hitting streak and is batting .421 during his past 10 games.  The Rays are missing some key batters due to injuries. They did pick up David Peralta from the Diamondbacks to strengthen their outfield depth. This total is low due to Gausman, who has a 3.30 ERA. But Gausman hasn't been sharp with a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts. Gausman has surrendered four homers during these last three starts spanning 15 1/3 innings. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

The Giants are struggling averaging two runs per game during their last five games. Things aren't looking up as they go against Zac Gallen, who has a 3.36 ERA this season when pitching at home. Gallen is in good form with a 2.89 ERA during his last three starts. This is a day game. Gallen has a 1.90 day time ERA. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

Both teams have below average offenses. Tampa Bay starter Corey Kluber has been solid. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts reaching the sixth inning during each of those seven outings. The Rays have a strong bullpen ranking eighth in relief pitching ERA. 

The Rays managed only a combined five runs in their last two games while striking out 19 times against mediocre Kansas City pitching. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

These are two of the coldest offenses in baseball. And now both are running into hot pitchers. Miami is averaging 2.4 runs in its last 15 games. The Marlins have been shut out in three of their last four games. The Pirates are averaging 1.8 runs in their last six games discounting an eight-run game against the Rockies at Coors Field. Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS. 

 Don't look for the Pirates to break out with a big-scoring game facing Sandy Alcantara, a prime Cy Young Award candidate with a 9-4 record, 1.76 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Alcantara has a 0.78 ERA in his last three starts. He has the lowest ERA in the National League.  Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller has pitched his most consistent ball of his career since rejoining the rotation at the end of May. He's given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts since then. He has a 2.37 ERA during his past three starts. The Marlins are without Jorge Soler, their second-leading home run hitter with 13. He was placed on the injured list because of back spasms on Saturday. Take the Under. 

*3 Star Play Under*The Tigers are the lowest-scoring team in the majors. They've scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last 11 games. 

*3 Star Play Under*

Detroit and Cleveland rank last and second-to-last in home runs. So it's not surprising they don't score much. The Tigers have scored eight runs in their last six games if you discount a seven-run performance they had against the Royals. Detroit scores the fewest runs in the league and is second-from-the-bottom in OPS. The Guardians have scored four or fewer runs in 13 of their last 15 games. The pitching matchup is Drew Hutchinson versus Zach Plesac. Neither pitcher generates a lot of respect. But each is good enough to tame these weak offenses. Hutchinson proved that two starts ago when he held the Guardians to one earned run in five innings. He's made two starts since returning to Detroit's starting rotation, giving up three earned runs in 11 innings, allowing 10 hits and one walk. Detroit has the third lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. Plesac's ERA is 3.89 on the season. However, his ERA at home is 2.85. Plesac is in good current form, too, with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. There is a slight wind blowing in. 

Take the Under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Johnny Cueto and Sonny Gray once were outstanding pitchers. They still are very good. Cueto has a 2.91 ERA on the season. He has a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts and a 1.74 road ERA on the season. Gray has a 3.03 ERA. He's given up three earned runs or fewer in 11 of 12 starts. Gray's home ERA is 2.83. Both pitchers can go deep into games, too, so middle relief doesn't have to factor. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tony Gonsolin has been great for the Dodgers all season, leading the majors in ERA at 1.62 and in WHIP at 0.80. The Cardinals scored seven runs against the Dodgers on Tuesday in a 7-6 victory. But previous to that, St. Louis had only managed 11 runs in its past eight games. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rockies are a hitting machine at Coors Field. The Padres are a much stronger offensive club, too, when playing away from their pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Colorado ranks No. 1 at home in runs scored, batting average and OPS. The Rockies are No. 2 in home slugging percentage. The Padres are the second-highest scoring team in the majors when playing on the road. They rank in the top nine in a number of other offensive categories when away from home, including runs, batting average, OPS and OPB.  

Neither starting pitcher, San Diego's Sean Manaea nor Colorado's Jose Urena, has a good track record at Coors Field. Manaea is 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in two starts at Coors. Urena has a 5.73 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 11 career innings at Coors. The lefthanded Manaea is not in good form with a 5.28 ERA and 1.63 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 15 1/3 innings.

The Rockies have the second-highest batting average in the league against southpaws at .286. Urena has pitched more than three innings just once all season. So the Rockies' vulnerable middle relievers could see plenty of action.  The weather forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing out to left field. The Rockies aren't likely to have Kris Bryant, but could get back C.J. Cron, who leads the team in homers and RBI's.  Take the Over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers will start Brandon Woodruff in this one. Woodruff has been excellent of late. He started the season slowly, but he is in great form coming into this one. Woodruff has a 1.73 ERA and a 2.33 FIP in his last five starts. Woodruff has held this Pirates lineup to a weighted on base average of just .281 in his career as well. 

Pittsburgh has scored just 13 runs in their last six games. The Pirates don't have nearly enough depth in their lineup.

Zach Thompson is a middle of the road starter for the Pirates. The Brewers offense isn't all that good though. They are averaging just 3.17 runs per game in their last six contests. 

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire here. The under is 21-9 in his last 30 games behind home plate. Ortiz has had some very high strikeout/walk rates in the last couple years and that should help both pitchers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies offense clearly doesn't have the upside they did before Bryce Harper went down with an injury. The Phillies have been getting some remarkable performances from Kyle Schwarber, and you have to wonder how long he can keep this up. 

The St. Louis Cardinals have scored 3 runs or less in seven of their last eight games. They have scored 3 runs or less in each of their last five games. 

Both of these teams are significantly better against left handed pitching than right handers. The Phillies are 5th in wOBA against lefties and 11th in wOBA against righties (would be much lower without Harper). The Cardinals are 7th in wOBA against lefties and 14th against righties.

Zack Wheeler is a top 6 or 8 right handed pitcher in baseball. Wheeler has a 2.66 ERA and a 2.48 FIP. He is putting together a third straight fantastic season. 

Adam Wainwright isn't the dominant starter he once was, but he is at least an average right handed starter, and his splits at home suggest he is still an above average starting pitcher.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals have been without Juan Soto in their last two games. He is questionable for this contest. Washington isn't very good offensively to begin with. Without Soto, this Washington offense becomes a bottom six or eight offense in baseball. 

Philadelphia is without Bryce Harper, and that definitely hurts their offense a lot. They are coming off an excellent offensive showing last game, but I still expect this team to have some struggles at the plate without him. 

Josiah Gray is a very highly touted pitching prospect who has been pretty impressive in his recent outings. Gray has a 2.75 ERA and a 3.25 FIP in his last five starts. 

Aaron Nola has pitched well in general this year, and he has been at his best of late. Nola has just 4 walks and 38 strikeouts in his last 37 innings pitched. In his last five starts, he has a 1.70 ERA and a 2.08 FIP.

Bill Miller is behind home plate here, and Miller has the highest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire in baseball. He will give the pitchers the corners in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dallas Keuchel is a really bad left handed starter at this time in his career. Keuchel doesn't have strikeout pitches, and he is no longer elite at inducing soft contact. 

Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Rockies now have Kris Bryant back in the middle of the lineup as well. Bryant and CJ Cron form a tremendous duo that really crushes lefties. 

Austin Gomber has been in bad form this year. Arizona has scored at least 7 runs in three of their last four games. The DBacks have a budding star in Alek Thomas and he has really caught fire of late. 

Both bullpens have had to work a lot of late, and neither bullpen has much in the way of depth. 

I expect plenty of scoring chances for both teams here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies rank second in the majors in weighted on base average over the last two weeks. Colorado has really been seeing the ball well of late. The Rockies have gotten a bit healthier of late, and that certainly helps.

Arizona has the worst batting average on balls in play in the last month of any team in the majors. The Diamondbacks offense isn't great, but they have been unfortunate of late. If you haven't been getting hits to drop in, Coors Field is a great place to travel to in order to get right. 

Merrill Kelly has made three starts at Coors Field, and he has an 8.15 ERA here. Kelly has pitched well this year overall, but I think this will be a real challenge for him. 

Antonio Senzatela has allowed a whopping .349 batting average and a .407 wOBA in 126 at bats against those players currently on the Diamondbacks roster. 

Warm weather and a slight breeze out to center field are helpful here as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies rank 2nd and 6th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Against right handed pitching, both are much more mediocre though. The Braves are 11th and the Phillies are 17th. 

Now, the Phillies are without superstar Bryce Harper. Harper is one of the best overall hitters in the game and this is a huge loss. 

Charlie Morton has thrown his best baseball in the last couple outings.

Zack Wheeler has tremendous splits at home the last two years. Wheeler has a 1.49 ERA and a spectacular .229 wOBA allowed at home this season. He had a 2.38 ERA and a .246 wOBA last year at home.

Both teams are down key hitters in the lineup.

The weather calls for moderate temperatures for summer in Philadelphia, and the slight wind is from center field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings has the highest called strike percentage in baseball in the last five years. You won't find a better umpire for an under than Eddings. He got himself in a lot of battles with the Blue Jays and White Sox in his last game behind home plate. To say that he had a massive strike zone in that one is a big understatement. That was a brutal beat on the under in that game, but it certainly wasn't because of Eddings. 

Blake Snell had much better numbers pitching at home last year, and I expect his home numbers to improve a lot the rest of the year. Snell struggles with walks at times, but Eddings should help him at least some here.

Zach Eflin goes against a Padres lineup that is shorthanded because of injury right now. Eflin has been solid this year. 

The Phillies bullpen ranks about middle of the pack this year. The Padres have a top 6 or 8 bullpen in baseball.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's offense is terrible. Oakland has scored two runs or fewer in six of their last ten games. Oakland is last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. George Kirby is a highly rated right handed pitcher who has shown the ability to throw multiple pitches well and limit hard contact.

Paul Blackburn is having a breakout season for the Athletics. Blackburn is doing a tremendous job inducing soft contact and keeping the ball in the ballpark. Seattle's offense is very inconsistent.

The A's offense has been bad in general this year, but they are much worse at home. In fact, no other team in the majors has a wOBA lower than .284 at home this year, but the A's have a miserable .255 wOBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this game. Eddings has the highest called strike percentage of any home plate umpire in the majors in the last five years. He consistently rings up batters and is a very good under umpire.

Dylan Cease has one problem and that is his control. Cease is averaging 12 strikeouts per nine innings and he has multiple very good pitches. Eddings should help his control problems at least some here.

Kevin Gausman has a .458 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) allowed in his last three starts. Gausman has a fantastic 16.0% swinging strike rate on the year and a 1.75 FIP. He is still a very good pitcher.

The White Sox are 1st in the majors in wOBA against lefties and 28th against righties. The Blue Jays have a .352 wOBA as a team against lefties, but their wOBA is .323 against righties.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles start Dean Kremer in this one. Kremer has been hit around hard in his time in the big leagues. He had 7.55 ERA and a 6.99 FIP last season. Kremer walks a lot of guys and gives up a lot of hard contact. Until he proves capable of consistently staying out of big innings, I don't trust him against major league lineups.

Shane Baz is an above average prospect for the Rays, but he doesn't usually pitch very deep into games. The Rays middle relief is weaker this year than it has been in recent seasons.

Baltimore's offense has been much better of late, and their bullpen has been absolutely dreadful in recent weeks. 

The Orioles have played nine straight games that have gotten to at least 9 runs total. Seven of the nine have reached at least 11 runs.

A hot night in Baltimore (nearly 90 degrees) should mean the ball is flying well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles send Dean Kremer to the mound on Sunday. Kremer has been terrible in the big leagues. Kremer has a career 7.84 ERA and a ridiculously high 1.807 WHIP. 

Brad Keller goes to the mound for the Royals. Keller has been much worse in the first half of the season in his career. Keller has a 6.31 ERA and a 4.96 FIP in his last six starts. He is striking out only 4.54 batters per nine innings during that time.

The Royals bullpen has the single worst SIERA in the majors in the past month. The Orioles rank below average in the bullpen in the last month.

Both offenses have shown some life of late. The temperature for this game is expected to be 91 degrees, so the ball should be flying well in Kansas City.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers rank dead last in the majors in wRC+ against right handed pitching. Detroit is a terrible offense against right handed pitching, and Ross Stripling is a decent starting pitcher. Stripling has bounced around in the majors, but he has shown the ability to throw strikes consistently and limit big innings.

Tarik Skubal is an excellent young pitcher. Skubal is averaging just 1.37 walks per nine innings. He is also getting hitters to chase at an increased rate. Skubal has a stellar 2.33 ERA and a 2.10 FIP on the season. In his last seven starts, he hasn't allowed more than three runs in any game. He has allowed zero runs in four of those seven starts. 

The Blue Jays lineup is very good and they are capable of scoring here, but Skubal doesn't give up many home runs and he has superb control. They will have to earn it.

The Tigers bullpen has quietly been excellent this year. They have the second best bullpen ERA in baseball. Toronto's bullpen is middle of the road, but they are against a really weak lineup.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. This is a tremendous lineup with depth and power that is tough to match. The Dodgers offense hasn't been great of late, but I expect them to break out of this mini slump very soon.

The New York Mets lineup is above average as well. Lindor hitting the ball really well has taken pressure off the stars around him this year.

Trevor Williams has had a good season thus far, but his career stats suggest he is likely to regress at any moment now. Williams has a 5.46 ERA, his worst of any month of the season, in the month of June in his career. 

Julio Urias has worse advanced metrics this year than he has had the last couple seasons. He's still a good pitcher, but his whiff rate being way down is a bit concerning for him.

The weather here is warm with a temperature of about 82 degrees and the winds are blowing out at about 10 mph.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Logan Webb and Pablo Lopez are two really underrated starting pitchers. Webb is a strike thrower who isn't going to give up many big innings thanks to his control and suppressing hard contact when it comes to batted balls. 

Pablo Lopez has been tremendous at home in his career. Lopez has a 2.89 career ERA at home and a .277 wOBA allowed. He has been much better in the first half of the season than the second half (3.26 ERA compared to 4.78 in the second half). Lopez has started 10 games this year, and he has allowed 1 run or less in 7 of those 10 starts.

Bill Miller is the umpire behind home plate here, and he is one of the two best under umpires in baseball. Miller consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and has a very high strikes called percentage. He should help both pitchers quite a bit here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers aren't a very good offense to start with and they are without Omar Narvaez and Wily Adames right now. Milwaukee has scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 13 games. Joe Musgrove is throwing the ball really well right now. He has a chase rate that ranks in the 94th percentile in the majors which is way up from last year. His consistency this year has been tremendous.

The San Diego Padres offense has been struggling of late. The Padres have scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. San Diego typically walks a lot and relies on walks to get innings started. They rank 4th in the majors in walk percentage. Corbin Burnes is an elite pitcher and he doesn't walk people. Burnes has walked just 11 batters all season thus far. Burnes comes into this game in great form.

Both bullpens are well rested with their top relievers ready to go in this one.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Guardians rank last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching (30th). Cleveland has actually been very good against right handed pitching though. The Guardians rank 7th in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Jonathan Heasley isn't a good starting pitcher at this point in his career. The Royals youngster has walked 13 batters in his first three starts this year. He has struck out only 7 batters. His ERA at Triple A in six starts this year was only a mediocre 4.44.

Zach Plesac has really struggled this year for Cleveland. Plesac has a 5.40 ERA and a 5.06 FIP on the season. 

Kansas City has scored 5 runs or more in five of their last seven games. Whit Merrifield is finally getting going, and Bobby Witt. Jr has been fantastic in his rookie season.

The weather here is important too. The game time temperature is expected to be in the upper 80's with winds blowing out at about 10 mph. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Game 7 in Miami- it all comes down to this. The winner of this game goes to the NBA Finals. The loser of this game heads home thinking about what could have been. 

The Boston Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA. Boston wasn't good enough defensively against Jimmy Butler in Game 6, but I expect them to make things a lot tougher on him in Game 7. Overall, Miami has really had to work very hard to get open shots in this series, and their backcourt of Lowry and Strus hasn't been good enough on offense.

The Celtics offense is inconsistent. The Miami Heat are capable of playing excellent defense with guys like PJ Tucker locking down on the perimeter. Butler is a good defensive player as well. 

The pace of the game should slow quite a bit with everything on the line. We've seen strong trends toward unders in game 7's in recent decades in the NBA. Look for the two defenses to come with max effort. 

The Celtics were just involved in a very low scoring game 7 against Milwaukee. I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* In 84 plate appearances against Corbin Burnes, this Cardinals lineup hasn't been very good. They have a 33.3% K rate and an expected batting average of just .207. 

Miles Mikolas has shut down the Brewers lineup. The Brewers have a .261 weighted on base average against Mikolas, and an expected batting average of just .247. 

Both Mikolas and Burnes are elite at not walking batters. Batters are likely to need to be swinging away in this one. Dan Bellino is a solid under umpire too and he is behind home plate for this contest. 

The Cardinals are elite against left handed pitching, but only mediocre against right handed pitching, and Burnes is one of the best. The Brewers lineup is a middle of the road lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers are awful against right handed pitching. Detroit is last in the majors in wRC+ against right handed pitching, and they are second to last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Detroit has scored more than 5 runs only once dating back to April 23. Detroit has scored no more than 4 runs in their last ten games. This is a bad offense that is prone to swinging and missing a lot. Triston McKenzie has multiple plus pitches and he is a tough matchup for them.

Elvin Rodriguez is a pretty good prospect for the Tigers. Rodriguez has a good curveball and pitching at Comerica should help him out.

The wind is expected to be blowing in 12 mph for this one.

Bill Miller is behind home plate here and he ranks second in the majors in strikes called percentage in the last five years. He's a very good under umpire with a high strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brady Singer was a first round pick and I think Singer's upside is extremely high. Singer has thrown 16 innings in a row without giving up a run. Singer has walked just 3 batters in that period. Singer has a career high 11% swinging strike rate so far this year, and he has one of the best curveballs in baseball.

Chris Archer is an inconsistent pitcher, but Archer has been better of late and the Twins are not allowing him to go through the order a 3rd or 4th time very much since that has been his weakness in his career. 

Kansas City is without Salvador Perez who has been their most consistent hitter in recent years. The Royals lineup is below average. 

Minnesota's lineup was great last night, but had scored just 2 runs in three straight games before that. 

Adam Beck has a 3.42 strikeout/walk ratio so far this year which is extremely high. He's been a pitcher's umpire which boosts the under too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties, and it isn't close. The Cardinals have a .377 wOBA and the second best team in the majors has a .360 wOBA against lefties. With Goldschmitt and Arenado in the middle of the lineup, this team will continue to be good against left handed pitching.

Eric Lauer is having a good season, and I think he is a pretty good pitcher. I don't think he is as good as his 2.16 ERA this year suggests though. Lauer has faced a weak group of lineups for the year and his FIP is more than a run higher than his ERA. He now has to face the best lineup against left handed pitching.

Adam Wainwright has a 2.87 ERA and a 3.85 FIP and 4.11 xFIP. He is due for regression as well. Wainwright is a decent pitcher, but he is no longer an outstanding starter.

Josh Hader is away from the team and is doubtful for this one. That really hurts the Brewers bullpen. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Athletics have had 12 games in which they scored one run or fewer in the last month. Oakland has a very high strikeout rate and Robbie Ray is a tough matchup when you are a team who swings and misses a lot.

The Seattle Mariners offense doesn't have the same upside without Mitch Haniger. Paul Blackburn has been dealing of late, and he goes up against a mediocre Seattle offense here.

Ray has been much better pitching at home. It isn't too surprising since Seattle is clearly a pitcher's park.

Paul Blackburn has a fantastic 1.91 ERA and a 2.30 FIP on the season. He's having a breakout season. He's allowed more than 2 runs only once this year. 

Mike Muchlinski is the home plate umpire here, and he is a strike caller. He should help both pitchers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Chris Bassitt and Logan Webb are two of the more underrated starting pitchers in baseball. Bassitt has allowed one run or fewer in 5 of his 8 starts this season. He has good control and doesn't give up much hard contact. Webb has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.10 FIP on the season. Webb also has great career splits when pitching at home. He has a 3.13 ERA and a .290 wOBA allowed at home.

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire for this game. Ortiz has become a really solid under umpire. The under is 26-9 in his last 35 games behind home plate. His strikeout/walk ratio suggests he is calling borderline pitches strikes on the regular especially on strike three. 

The Giants lineup has scored just 5 runs in their last three games overall. They are shorthanded right now. The Mets have been inconsistent on offense this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors both shot the ball extremely well in Game Two. Golden State averaged 1.286 points per possession in that game. Dallas averaged 1.182 points per possession.

Last game being so high scoring has led to this total being moved up by a few points. In fact, the Warriors and Mavericks have faced off six times this year. This is the second highest posted total of the season in their matchups.

Remember, this is a playoff game that is an absolute must win for the Dallas Mavericks. For a posted total to be the second highest of six matchups between these two- that stands out to me. 

In the playoffs- Dallas has played much slower and played much better defense in their home games. The Mavericks are 5-1 to the under at home in the playoffs. 

At home in the playoffs their games are averaging just 91.42 possessions and they are allowing only 1.024 points per possession. On the road their games have averaged 94.33 possessions and they are allowing 1.184 points per possession.

Look for Dallas to slow things down some here. The Mavericks should be giving max effort on defense. 

Both of these teams do shoot the ball well and there is potential for them to light it up for 3, but with this being a must win for Dallas and the oddsmakers setting the line several points higher I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense has finally woke up. Trevor Story is on fire now, and that is fueling this offense to bigger things. Boston has scored 39 runs in their last six games. 

Robbie Ray has been away for personal reasons, but is expected back for this start. Ray hasn't been very good this year. His velocity is down quite a bit, and his swinging strike rate is down from a year ago. 

Michael Wacha starts for the Red Sox. He's coming off the injured list for this one. Wacha hasn't been good in recent seasons, and I don't put too much faith into him being a lot better just because of 5 good starts this year. He has a 1.38 ERA with a 3.90 FIP and a 4.23 xFIP so he is definitely due for regression.

I think the Seattle offense has some guys who will hit better in the long run. Jesse Winker is a good hitter who hasn't been very good this year. Rodriguez is a really talented youngster who I expect to pick up his level as well.

The wind is blowing out about 10 mph at Fenway which is a nice boost.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Apparently Carlos Hernandez needs some time to get warmed up. In his career, he has a 7.26 ERA with a terrible .388 weighted on base average allowed in the first half of the season. In the second half, he has a solid 3.55 ERA and a .299 wOBA. Hernandez is off to a terrible start this year. He has more walks than strikeouts on the season, and his ERA is above 9.

Vince Velasquez has never been a very good pitcher, but his biggest problem has always been his inability to keep the ball in the ballpark. Velasquez is allowing 1.95 home runs per nine innings this year. The advanced metrics show that Velasquez has given up the highest percentage of hard hit batted balls this year that he has at any point in his career. 

The weather here calls for mid 80's with wind blowing out at about 15 mph. The ball will be flying well. With both of these pitchers given up hard contact and having a lot of traffic on the bases consistently, there could be some big innings in this one.

Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire and in the long run he has been one of the best over umpires in the majors.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets start Max Scherzer here. Scherzer has been really good against everyone in his career, but he has absolutely dominated this St. Louis Cardinals lineup. In 194 plate appearances, the Cardinals lineup has a .156 batting average and a .191 wOBA against Scherzer. They have 9 walks and 66 strikeouts against Scherzer. He is still one of the best pitchers in baseball and I would expect a strong performance from him here.

Jordan Hicks has the stuff to be a high quality pitcher, and the Mets are without Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo is questionable for this one. The Cardinals have a deep bullpen and the Mets are a streaky offense.

I think the pitching will have the upper hand in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Spenser Watkins gets the start at home against the New York Yankees in this one. Watkins is a guy with a lot of potential, but he is really struggling thus far in his young big league career. 

Watkins has a swinging strike rate of only 7.7%. He has 12 walks and 13 strikeouts on the season thus far. His xERA is in the 6th percentile of all pitchers. His average exit velocity allowed is in the 15th percentile. Watkins is giving up a lot of home runs. He also has a career ERA of 8.36 when pitching at home. Watkins is allowing opposing hitters to have a .449 wOBA at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 

The Yankees offense has woke up in a big way of late. The Yankees have scored 49 runs in their last six games! They should get to Watkins in this one. The Orioles bullpen that was excellent early in the season has really struggled in the last few weeks as well.

Jameson Taillon is a good pitcher, but he is due for a little regression. Taillon has a 2.93 ERA with a 3.25 FIP and 3.65 xFIP. The Orioles do have some power and this is a hitters park.

The umpire here is Torres and he is an over umpire. His strikeout/walk ratio has been extremely low the last couple seasons.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Boston to take on the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the hotly contested Eastern Conference Semifinals series. This has been a fantastic series with great drama and some high levels of play by each team.

It's win or go home time for both teams. These win or go home games have consistently been played at a slower pace. Why? This game means everything and teams are far more likely to slow things down and try to avoid the ridiculous turnovers. These games also bring max effort on the defensive end.

Boston and Milwaukee are arguably the two best defensive teams in the NBA. They are at least both top five defenses in the NBA. There is a ton of length on the floor in this game, and I would expect a lot of contested shots.

Could they be hitting tough jumpers? Of course it is possible, but I like the chances of the under hitting in this situation.

Four of the six games in this series so far have finished at 204 points or lower. This one is the most important game yet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* George Kirby has been a top 25 or 30 prospect in all of baseball. Kirby has a fastball that runs up to 98 or 99 mph. He also has some of the best control you will ever see. His ability to put the ball right where he wants it and not walk hardly anyone has impressed scouts for years. Kirby should have a bright future in the majors.

Chris Bassitt is an underrated starting pitcher. He has good command and does a good job limiting hard contact. His highest FIP in the last three years has been 3.59, so he is clearly an above average pitcher.

The Mariners have been really struggling on offense of late. Mitch Haniger is a key cog for this offense, and without him they haven't looked good. Seattle has now scored 2 runs or less in seven of their last ten games.

Adam Hamari is the home plate umpire here and he carries a high strikeout walk ratio consistently, and is a top ten under umpire in the majors.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals rank second to last in the majors in weighted on base average. Kansas City also ranks second to last in the majors in ISO. The Royals haven't been able to string hits together very often this year.

The Colorado Rockies offense is good at home as they always are, but they are shorthanded without Kris Bryant and this isn't an elite offense like it was a few years ago.

Zack Greinke has a solid ERA of 4.01 at Coors Field in his career. Greinke isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago, but he is still at worst an average starting pitcher. The Royals bullpen has major positive regression signs due to bad batted ball luck so far this season.

Kyle Freeland has been solid all year, and he has learned how to pitch at Coors Field in recent seasons.

Even at Coors, this is a high total for two offenses that are shorthanded and a game with two pretty good starting pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dallas trails 3-2 in this series, so the Mavericks have to win this one to extend the series to a 7th game. The Mavericks won the first two meetings at home partially by slowing the tempo down. I expect Dallas to slow the pace down again here. The Mavericks have been better late in the season on the defensive end on their home court as well.

The pace in the last three games of this series has been an average of 92.5 possessions per game. If the teams average 1.14 points per possession (above average offensive efficiency), the game would finish at 211 points. 

Later in the series these games usually slow down. It is win or go home time and that usually brings about a slower pace and stronger defense. 

Dallas has the blueprint for winning against Phoenix. Can they do it again here? I don't know, but I do think they can set the pace enough to keep this below the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have been an over machine of late. The over is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games. Their offense has been better, and their pitching staff is absolutely horrendous. 

Vladimir Gutierrez may be the worst pitcher on the Reds roster, and he is the starting pitcher here. Gutierrez has 17 walks and only 13 strikeouts on the season thus far. He has an 8.86 ERA and a 7.53 FIP. Gutierrez has really ugly numbers at Great American Ballpark in his career, and I don't see a reason to think he gets on track here.

Adrian Houser has been decent so far this year, but he does have ugly numbers against this Reds lineup. Houser has allowed a .394 batting average and a .461 wOBA against this Cincinnati lineup. 

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here and he is a top five over umpire in the majors. Wegner consistently has a low strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's have scored 3 runs or fewer in 12 of their last 15 games. The Detroit Tigers have been shut out in back to back games, and they haven't scored more than 2 runs in any of their last five games. 

These two teams rank second to last and last in the majors in weighted on base average this year. The A's are slightly better against lefties than righties, but they are still only 24th out of 30 teams in wOBA. Detroit is 29th out of 30 in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Tarik Skubal has tremendous control. Skubal is averaging just 1.01 walks per nine innings so far this year. He has a 3.04 ERA and a fantastic 2.21 FIP. 

Frankie Montas has a 3.44 ERA and a 3.29 FIP on the season. Montas has allowed 2 runs or less in four of his last five starts.

The wind is forecast to be blowing in at about 12 mph during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Baseball is a streaky sport. Offenses can go on streaks or stay in slumps for a good while through the course of the season. In the last 14 days, Detroit ranks 28th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average. Oakland ranks dead last at 30th. 

The truth is these two offenses aren't good in general though, and that is especially true against right handed pitching. Where do they rank in the majors against right handed pitching so far this year? Detroit once again ranks 28th and Oakland is dead last at 30th. These two offenses are much better against lefties, but there are two right handed starters on the mound for this one.

Paul Blackburn has had a very strong year so far this year. He does a good job throwing strikes and staying ahead of hitters. Blackburn also does a good job limiting home runs.

Michael Pineda still has good stuff. He isn't terribly consistent, but the Oakland bats have scored 1 run or fewer in six of their last ten games. 

In this one- the wind is forecast to be blowing in from center field at about 12-15 mph during this game. A nice bonus.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Oakland A's offense is really bad. Oakland has a .197 batting average against right handed pitching this year. Oakland has scored 1 run or fewer in six of their last nine games. The A's are up against a solid right handed pitcher here in Chris Paddack. 

Paddack has a good 3.15 ERA this year and an amazing 1.93 FIP in his four starts. He isn't likely to be hit very much by this Oakland offense. He's always had elite control, and he is averaging less than one walk per nine innings this year. 

Daulton Jeffries is a middle of the road pitcher, but he has some upside. Also, the Minnesota Twins lineup is very injured right now. Carlos Correa is doubtful for this game. Byron Buxton left yesterday's game due to a minor injury and he is questionable at best for this game. Minnesota doesn't have much lineup depth overall.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I was hoping to get a 7 on this total, but the string of unders in Major League Baseball this year has led to this one being at 6.5. I'm still going to recommend a smaller (regular 3 star rated play) play on this one. 

The splits here set up very nicely. Sean Manaea is a high quality lefty, and the Marlins have a .198 batting average against lefties so far this year. They are a bottom five offense in baseball against left handed pitching.

San Diego has been really good against lefties, but they are subpar against right handed pitching. Pablo Lopez is a quality right handed pitcher. Lopez has a 1.29 ERA and a stellar 2.06 FIP on the season. 

These two offenses are at a disadvantage against the starters, and the bullpens are above average as well. This game is played at a very pitcher-friendly park.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks come home to take on the Phoenix Suns in game of this series. Phoenix leads 2-0 after they destroyed Dallas in the fourth quarter of game two. 

While Luka Doncic has been great on offense his defense has been exposed here. I do think Jason Kidd is a good coach, and I expect Dallas to have a better defensive game plan for game three. They'll try to hide Doncic on defense when they can. 

Phoenix is a very good offensive team, but they aren't this good. The Suns are averaging an insane 1.35 points per possession in this series. They shot a little over 64% from the floor in game two. The first two games of this series have gone over the total easily. 

In the regular season, all three meetings between these two teams stayed under this total. Dallas is likely to want to slow the tempo down more in this game (the Mavericks had a bottom five tempo rating this year). 

This game now has a higher posted total than any of the regular season games between these two teams. Playoff games mean more and they are usually totaled much lower than regular season games. I think there is some recency bias in this number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays start Alex Manoah in this one and he has been tremendous both so far this year and in his career in the first half of the season. Manoah has allowed just 4 runs in 25 innings pitched this year. He has a career 2.34 ERA in the first half of the season. 

Manoah has also been dominant when pitching at home so far in his young career. He has a 2.14 ERA and an amazing .155 batting average allowed at home. 

Jameson Taillon has been throwing the ball well for the Yankees so far this year. He has a 3.26 ERA and a 3.42 xFIP. Taillon has only walked two batters in his four starts so far this year.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire in this one, and Kulpa has been consistently one of the four or five best under umpires in baseball. He had a stunning 3.55 strikeout/walk ratio last year which was the second highest in all of baseball. He should help both pitchers in this game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers have scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. Detroit has scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 11 games. This Tigers offense is struggling in a big way right now. 

Clayton Kershaw hasn't walked a batter so far this year. Kershaw has 23 strikeouts, and he carries an impressive 2.65 ERA with a fantastic 2.07 FIP. Kershaw is throwing a lot more sliders this year, and the results have been fantastic. 

The Dodgers offense is very good. There is no denying that fact. The Dodgers do rank 4th in wOBA against right handed pitching and 19th against lefties. They face a young lefty in Brieske here.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. Every single year he ranks near the top or at the top in strikes called percentage as well as strikeouts/walks. He should help both pitchers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors have a really good head coach in Nick Nurse. Nurse is known for two things- 1. His adjustments throughout a series and even in a game- 2. His defensive mindset and the unique defenses he puts together. Toronto has played much better defense in games 3-5 against the 76ers. 

Joel Embiid is hurting and that overall should hurt his offense more than his defense as well. The 76ers have been slowed down quite a bit of late too with Tyrese Maxey being shut down by the Raptors in recent games. 

Toronto has been much better at home on defense in general, and they will look to dictate the tempo and slow the game down here. 

As we get deeper into the series throughout the NBA in the playoffs, we typically see a slowdown in tempo and high intensity on defense. This is an elimination game and if Toronto wins this could be all the way back to 3-3. I think both teams show up with quality defense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs start Mark Leiter Jr. here. Leiter Jr. doesn't seem to have good enough stuff to be effective in the majors. He has struggled badly in the majors with his command every time he has been called up. Leiter has major problems with the long ball also- and that has been the case in quite a few of his years in the minors as well. He's the type of guy who can really give up big innings in a hurry.

Charlie Morton is nearing the end of his career. Morton has had a great last few years, but there are quite a few signs that he is slowing down. His 6.32 ERA and 5.49 FIP this year are a really bad start. He looked good against the Reds (everyone has), but he has been in trouble early and often in his other two starts.

Alfonso Marquez has some of the lowest called strike percentages of any umpire in the last few seasons. He is clearly an over umpire, and he is at it again this year with a ridiculously low strikeout/walk ratio of 1.79.

The Cubs are first in the majors in wOBA this year and the Braves are 10th. Two good offenses and a total that is set too low.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Under* Both Triston McKenzie and Patrick Sandoval have excellent stuff. They both have multiple strikeout pitches. They both have the same problem- they can struggle with walks sometimes.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this game. Miller is one of the two best under umpires in all of baseball. Year after year his strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio show how he is a great strike caller.

Miller should help both of these youngsters by giving them the corners much more than the average umpire would.

The Guardians offense isn't as good as their season numbers would suggest. They are due for regression in batted ball luck.

The Angels do have several guys who are free swingers and McKenzie can take advantage of that.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This series is all tied up at 2-2. Game five in Memphis is a huge game. The Timberwolves have played the Grizzlies tough all season. 

Last game the final was 119-118. In that game, the two teams combined to shoot 33/68 (48.5%) from 3 point range. There were also 65 free throws in the game. Even with those numbers, the game edged over this total. 

As the games get more important the totals tend to on average get a little lower. If both teams shoot lights out here then this selection will lose, but if we see shooting numbers like their season averages I like this game to stay under. 

The pace of the game has been slower the last couple games in this series. As the series gets even more important the game is likely to slow down a little more.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox both have top five offenses in baseball. 

Jose Berrios starts for the Blue Jays and he has been very shaky this year. In his two starts he has an 11.81 ERA and an 11.86 FIP. Berrios has walked five batters in 5.1 innings and he has allowed 3 home runs. 

Nick Pivetta has a 3.91 ERA in day games in his career, but his night game ERA is an ugly 5.93. He has a WHIP of 1.492 in night games. Pivetta has a 5.49 ERA in 17 starts at Fenway Park. He has an ERA of 9.53 and a FIP of 8.53 through two games.

I think both starters have blowup potential here and with the total dropping to 9, I'm on the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers beat the Toronto Raptors 131-111 on Saturday night in game one. The pace of that game was 90 possessions. That was the slowest paced game of the playoff contests on Saturday. The 76ers averaged an insane 1.472 points per possession in that game. That is almost unheard of in the NBA- especially in the playoffs. Toronto shot the ball extremely well and averaged 1.22 points per possession. They still lost by 20 points. 

These two teams were in the 1.13-1.14 range in points per possession in the regular season. Harden has made the 76ers offense better, but it isn't as good as they looked on Saturday. The 76ers had one turnover with 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter. The shooting numbers should regress. 

The first game had a total of 215.5. We are getting 5 points higher on the line because of the insane efficiency numbers on offense in game one. At a pace of 90 possessions, the two teams could average 1.20 points per possession (above average) and the total points would finish at 216. 

I have to bet the under and hope the regression comes in game two. They can't be that good on offense the whole series. They are giving us 5 more points here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies lineup is a pretty good lineup, but they aren't exactly the mashing crew that they were a few years ago. The Chicago Cubs are the same way. These are middle of the road lineups with a posted total of 11 runs.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here. Kulpa had an extremely high 3.55 strikeout/walk ratio last year. He ranks top 8 in the majors in strikes called percentage in the last four seasons overall. He's a solid under umpire.

Austin Gomber has pitched in ten games at Coors Field in his career and he has a sparkling 2.03 ERA and a WHIP of just 0.956. That is likely to regress some, but he has done a great job in this hitter friendly park and seems to have somewhat of an edge.

The weather here calls for a slight breeze blowing in from left field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The gametime temperature for this one at Progressive Field in Cleveland is expected to be 36 degrees with a 10 mph wind blowing straight in from center field. Cleveland is a ballpark that is changed by the winds and weather more than most people realize. The ball shouldn't be carrying well here on Sunday.

Alex Wood is certainly an above average lefty. I don't think the Guardians lineup is very good in general, and I think they will be a little worse against left handed pitching.

Aaron Civale does a good job limiting hard contact, and that should help quite a bit especially in these conditions.

We have two bullpens who are clearly better than the average bullpen in the majors. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins have an underrated pitching staff. Miami is likely to have quite a few low scoring games this year, especially at home in a park where it is at least somewhat pitcher friendly.

Philadelphia starts Ranger Suarez here, and though he had a disappointing first start to the season, there are a lot of very sharp pitching analysts who think he has a high upside. Suarez has multiple plus pitches and is capable of generating a lot of swings and misses.

Trevor Rogers is a very good young lefty for the Marlins. Rogers had a ridiculously high swinging strike rate of 14.0% last year, and he also doesn't allow much hard contact. 

Jeremie Rehak is the umpire at home plate here and his strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk numbers show from the last few years show him as a very good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tanner Houck starts for the Boston Red Sox here. Houck was excellent last year with an 11.35 strikeout per nine inning rate. He has made several mechanical tweaks and has really shown his real potential. Many in the Red Sox organization expect him to have a breakout year this year. He is a former first round draft pick. 

Jordan Montgomery is often underrated. Montgomery does a good job inducing soft contact and that can really help him against quality lineups like Boston. Montgomery has a career 3.72 ERA against Boston. 

The Yankees bullpen is a top 3 bullpen in baseball. The Red Sox bullpen is a top ten bullpen in baseball.

The conditions will be cold for this one and the ball shouldn't be carrying too well. 

Home plate umpire here is Tripp Gibson who is a top five under umpire in baseball. Both pitchers will be helped by his generous strike zone.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have what might be the worst bullpen in all of baseball. Baltimore traded away their one really solid bullpen arm in Cole Sulser recently. I expect Baltimore's bullpen to be terrible this year. 

John Means should be a #3 or #4 starter, but on the Orioles he is the ace. Means is a decent pitcher, but the Rays have hit him hard. Means had a 5.40 ERA in five starts against the Rays last year. The Rays current lineup has a great .377 wOBA against Means. Tampa Bay starts the season with Wander Franco in the lineup and I think they can do damage here.

Baltimore has some solid bats with Mountcastle, Mullins, Santander, and Mancini. The Orioles project as a team that will be much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Shane McClanahan is a pretty good pitcher, but he actually has worse numbers at home than on the road.

The over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Tampa Bay.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks were absolutely torched by the LA Clippers last game. The Clippers put up 153 points and made 23 three point shots. Robert Covington made 11 of them by himself. The Bucks sat out all their best players in that game. 

Milwaukee is second in the Eastern Conference standings. The Bucks are just one game ahead of the fourth place 76ers. These last few games are important to the Bucks and I think with their starters back in the lineup here they will show up defensively.

Dallas was blasted by Washington in an embarrassing 135-103 game last time out. The Mavericks have been a top ten defense on the year though. Dallas ranks second slowest in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They will try to slow the game down here.

Two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher from game 60 of the season on- the under is slightly better than 57% since 2005. This angle has been very good in recent seasons. This game fits the angle.

This is also an early game on Sunday and those have been strong to the under in the long haul.

Both teams should be playing hard for playoff seeding here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We've reached the Final Four. While there were many upsets along the way, we have a final four of all big name programs. Villanova takes on Kansas in the first game at the Superdome on Saturday evening. 

Villanova is without Justin Moore and that definitely hurts them quite a bit, but this is a really well coached Villanova team. Jay Wright knows his team has a better chance if they keep this game played in the halfcourt and slow the pace down as much as possible. Villanova has played six games in a row to a pace of 62 possessions or slower. 

Kansas has done a solid job not fouling down the stretch this season. Villanova shoots a ridiculous 83 percent from the line, and if Kansas can keep them off the line they have a much better chance of slowing the Wildcats down here. The Jayhawks have seen their last two games played to 127 and 126 points. They are usually a pretty high scoring team, but they have had several low games on neutral courts this year.

This game is played at the Superdome in New Orleans. In the last 15 years, there have been 3 games played at the Superdome. Those three games were the Final 4 and Championship Games back in 2012. All 3 of those games went under the total. They all went under the closing total by at least 5 points. This is a huge stadium with tough sight lines. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors host the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday night. Golden State plans to have Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, and Andre Iguodala all on the floor together for the first time this year. 

Andre Iguodala has the best individual defensive player rating on this team. Green is second best. Thompson is clearly a good defender as well. With these guys all on the floor, Golden State is a very good defensive team. 

Phoenix has Chris Paul back in the lineup. Paul is excellent on offense, but the team plays at a slower pace with him leading the way. The Suns are in transition much more often when Cam Payne is at point guard. 

A game late in the season between two good teams has been a good under bet in the last 15 seasons in the NBA. In fact, between game 60 and 82 of the season a game played between two teams with a win percentage of 60% or higher- the under is 57.2% dating back to 2006. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is an NIT Semifinal for Tuesday March 29. There is quite an impressive NIT Semifinal and Finals totals trend that stands out. The under is 28-12 in the last 40 NIT Semifinals and Finals round games with a total of 129 or higher. The under is 23-6 in games with a total of 135.5 or higher in this spot.

The venue here is Madison Square Garden. It is absolutely one of the best under venues in college basketball. This is a massive arena with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Throw in the fact that in the early rounds of the NIT most teams care very little, but once they reach this stage they are going to slow down and give more effort on defense. 

Texas A&M actually hasn't had any of their 3 NIT games thus far go over 136 points. Washington State has seen two of their three games stay under. The other one only finished at 138 points.

Both Washington State and Texas A&M are better on defense than offense. Washington State ranks 263rd in effective FG percentage offense and 39th in effective FG % defense. Texas A&M is 198th on offense and 65th on defense.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks host the Utah Jazz in an important late regular season game between two teams tied in the Western Conference playoff standings. 

These teams are tied for fourth place in the Western Conference standings. They are also only 2.5 games ahead of Minnesota for the 7th spot in the standings. Remember, #7-#10 are in the "play in" tournament. Everyone will push hard to stay out of those spots. 

These late season regular season games between two good teams have been good to under bettors. When both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher and it is game 60 or later of the regular season the under is 56.9% dating back to 2005. In recent years, this angle has done very well.

Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games. Utah ranks 24th. The tempo here should be slow. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats rank 345th in the country in overall tempo. The Houston Cougars rank 338th in the nation in tempo. These are two bottom 20 teams in the nation in pace of play. The pace here should be extremely slow with this one almost exclusively being played in the halfcourt. 

Houston slowed Arizona down and that game finished at only 62 possessions. Villanova hasn't had a game in the NCAA Tournament over 62 possessions. I think there is a good shot this game plays to 60 possessions or fewer based on how slow the teams play and the importance of the game.

Villanova is 24th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Houston relies heavily on offensive rebounds. Villanova ranks 80th in the country in second chance points allowed, which is better than Houston's first two opponents in the NCAA Tournament.

Houston is 3rd in effective field goal percentage defense. The Cougars will likely make the post up offense and pick and roll offense Villanova runs tough sledding for the Wildcats here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars are a really well coached team. Ed Cooley is willing to do whatever it takes to keep his teams in the game. They will mix in zone looks including 1-3-1 zone defense to trap and keep the opponent off guard. Providence is likely to do a lot of mixing up their defenses here against a good Kansas offense.

I also expect Providence to look to slow the pace down. The Friars aren't likely to want a track meet type game here. Providence ranks 283rd in the country in overall tempo.

Kansas has been excellent on 3 point defense. In the Big 12, Kansas' opponents shot less than 28% from 3 point range. Providence has shot it well from long range, but Shot Quality and other analytical sites believe they are due for regression. I think Providence could struggle to find open looks in this one.

The under is 22-8-2 in the last 32 Sweet 16 games with a spread of 7.5 or larger. The consensus line here is 7.5 right now. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs are favored by 9 or 9.5 points in this one. Games with a spread of 7.5 points or more are 21-8-2 to the under in the Sweet 16. This game fits the system.

The Arkansas Razorbacks offense has been inconsistent this year. Arkansas ranks only 237th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Razorbacks  rely heavily on getting to the free throw line. They are 15th in FTA/FGA in the country. Gonzaga has always been good at defending without fouling though and this year is no different. The Bulldogs rank 22nd in the nation in defensive FTA/FGA. Arkansas is just 30.5% from 3 point range this year, and I don't trust them to knock down jumpers here on a neutral court in San Francisco.

Gonzaga's offense is really good. There isn't much bad to say about them. They can be hit or miss from 3 point range at times. Arkansas has a good shot blocker down low in Jaylin Williams. 

Look for Chet Holmgren's length inside to really bother the Arkansas frontcourt here.

This is a 4 pm local time tipoff in a neutral venue, which is a positive for the under.

I'll back the system and take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are without Stephen Curry and to say that this team looks different now is a major understatement. Not surprisingly, Curry is easily Golden State's highest rated offensive player. Otto Porter Jr. is seeing a lot more minutes now and he is much better defensively than on offense.

Golden State ranks 3rd last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last two games (without Curry). Those two games were against terrible defenses in the Spurs and the Magic. Now, Golden State goes to play a top five defense in the NBA in Miami.

The Heat and the Warriors both rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in tempo in the last month. I would expect this game to be played at a relatively slow tempo.

Miami is off an embarrassing loss where their defense gave up 113 points to a 76ers team without Harden and Embiid. The Heat should be better defensively.

There are multiple strong systems on the under late in the season in the NBA when it is a matchup of two teams with a good record. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers rank second in the country in offensive efficiency. Purdue was rolling on offense against Yale, but took their foot off the gas as many high seeds do with a large lead in the second half of the Round of 64 matchups.

Purdue has two elite big men in Edey and Williams. Edey is particularly hard to matchup against. He is an offensive rebounding machine. Texas has had trouble with defensive rebounding all year. Expect it to be a major issue here. 

Jaden Ivey is one of the best offensive players in the country, and he should be a handful here too.

Texas has improved in recent weeks on offense. The Longhorns are likely to have success in this game. As good as Purdue is on offense, the Boilermakers aren't very good defensively. Purdue is just 90th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

A close game is expected here. Purdue gets to the line a bunch and Texas fouls a lot as well. A foul fest late or even overtime is a possibility.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans rank 350th out of 358 teams in the country in average possession length. They are stalling in a big way. UNC Greensboro has played a bunch of games to 60 possessions or less this year. 

Boston University is 274th in average possession length. The Terriers definitely prefer to play slowly as well. There should be no pace war in a game like this.

This is a small postseason tournament and the total is adjusted upward for that. This game is played at a neutral site though and neutral site games have played to lower total in the long run than regular home sites. 

Neither team gets to the line very much and I believe it will take very good shooting numbers to get this one past the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs play at the single fastest pace in the country in terms of average possession length. Memphis will use a full court press and very aggressive defense to try to get points off turnovers. While Gonzaga hasn't been terrible about turning the ball over this year, they haven't faced teams who press in the WCC.

Memphis ranks 9th in quick points off steals. Gonzaga ranks 110th in preventing those quick points off steals. Gonzaga ranks 4th in halfcourt defense and 139th in transition defense. Memphis will try to score in transition here.

Memphis is certainly much better on offense with DeAndre Williams in the lineup now. The Tigers get a lot of second chance points and get to the line a lot. 

Gonzaga's offense is so balanced that I believe they can do damage against Memphis. The Tigers are also weak in transition defense (110th) and Gonzaga can take advantage of that weakness in a big way.

The pace here should be extremely fast.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTEP Miners have sped up their pace late in the season. UTEP is aggressive with their defense and they look for chances to get steals and score quickly in transition. Western Illinois has had recent problems taking care of the basketball and their transition defense ranks in the bottom 60 teams in the country.

Western Illinois also is terrible at defending the 3 point line. UTEP takes a lot of long range jumpers.

Western Illinois has seen 8 of their last 10 games go over this total. UTEP has been back and forth on higher and lower scoring.

This is a first round smaller postseason tournament, and these games have gone over at a better than 55% clip in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 Star  Play Under*

Seton Hall point guard, Bryce Aiken, is badly missed by the Seton Hall offense. Seton Hall will probably be playing at a slow pace since TCU is strong when it comes to dictating tempo. TCU ranks among the 50 slowest teams in average possession length. 

Seton Hall is still an elite defensive team. TCU isn't a good jump shooting team and they are reliant on getting a lot of second chance points. Over the course of the season, Seton Hall has been above average at preventing second chance opportunities. 

This total is set low, but I still believe it is a little too high. Look for the two offenses to struggle to get open looks. 

Take the under.

3* Play Under  The Cal State Fullerton Titans had been unable to score against quality competition. Fullerton scored only 66 against Wyoming, and 56 against San Diego State. Duke has a huge size advantage in this game. Fullerton prefers to drive to the hoop, but Duke ranks top 30 in blocked shots and #2 in the county in defending without fouling. Duke has slowed down their tempo late in the season. 

A great long term angle on round of 64 totals has been betting the under when a highly seeded team is a large favorite. When the favorite is -8 or higher, the under has hit at better than 60% over the past 15 years.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers play the Yale Bulldogs in the NCAA Tournament first round.

High seeds favored by at least 6 points in round one of the NCAA Tournament have been great under bets when the total has been above 135. That system is above 60% in the last decade. This game fits this system.

Yale isn't very good offensively, and they prefer to play slowly. The Bulldogs aren't likely to be able to expose Purdue's relative defensive weaknesses. 

Matt Painter's team has shown the willingness to slow down when they have a sizeable late lead. The Boilermakers are likely going to be playing from the lead throughout here.

I'm trusting the system and expecting a pretty slow pace here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes offense is absolutely rolling right now. Keegan Murray is arguably the best offensive player in the country. Murray has been shooting lights out of late, and he is far from the only weapon this Hawkeyes team has on offense. Kris Murray is also playing really well and is breaking out on offense. Jordan Bohannon is an elite outside shooter. Iowa is averaging 1.215 points per possession on the year. That is only behind Gonzaga.

Richmond ranks 315th in transition defense. The Spiders are terrible in transition defense, and Iowa is all about pushing the pace. They rank 20th in average possession length in the country. The Spiders aren't likely to have any answers. Grant Golden is a good player, but he is too slow and weak defensively to keep up with the Iowa frontcourt.

Iowa is still only decent on defense. Richmond star guard Gilyard should give the Hawkeyes some trouble here. Golden is a good offensive big man who can pass it well and set up shooters. Iowa struggles to defend the 3 point line. 

Iowa is 3rd in the country in turnover percentage. Richmond is 9th. Don't expect many wasted possessions in this one. 

Richmond gave up 85 to Utah State and 86 to Maryland in the non-conference slate. Iowa should put up a big number here. I think Richmond scores enough too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are the top seed in this region, and they'll play Norfolk State from the MEAC. 

Norfolk State has a long history of not scoring many points in games against high level competition. The MEAC is a very weak league, and when Norfolk State's offense has stepped up in class, the results haven't been good. 

Norfolk State scored just 48 on Xavier earlier this year. They scored only 58 against Wichita State. They scored just 54 against a weak New Mexico defense. Last year they made the NCAA Tournament and scored 54 points on Appalachian State and 55 on Gonzaga (they had just 39 with 5 minutes remaining in that one). They scored only 47 on a good UNC Greensboro defense early last year. 

I don't think Norfolk State is going to score much here. Baylor is a bit shorthanded here, but I think that hurts them more on offense than defense. The question is how many will Baylor score? Baylor is likely to be leading big in this one. The history of these high vs. low seed matchups is the better team lets their foot off the gas enough late in these games that the under has done very well in the last 15 years in the NCAA Tournament. I think this sets up as another game where that can happen.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Long Beach State 49ers push the pace to the extreme. Long Beach ranks 27th in the country in overall tempo. The 49ers defense is 256th in effective field goal percentage defense. They did look pretty good in Big West play defensively, but there are all kinds of really bad offenses in the Big West right now.

BYU ranks 124th overall in tempo, so the Cougars are faster than the average team as well. The Cougars faced some really good defenses on the year. KenPom rates their slate of defenses faced 51st toughest in the country. BYU is up against a much weaker defense here in Long Beach State. Alex Barcello is the leader of a BYU team that shoots the ball really well from 3 point range. Long Beach State ranks 279th in the country in 3 point defense.

BYU ranks 312th in transition defense this year, and Long Beach State gets out in transition early and often. The 49ers should have some success on fastbreaks here. They will use a lot of pressure defense and force turnovers that turn into quick breakaway opportunities.

The over has been a good play early in these smaller postseason tournaments.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes go to Utah to take on the Southern Utah Thunderbirds. 

Southern Utah ranks 99th in tempo. They will look to push the pace throughout in this  game. Kent State ranks 245th.

Kent State and Southern Utah are both very good at getting to the line. There should be a lot of points from the charity stripe in this one. Additionally, both of these teams have struggled on the defensive glass. Second chance points should help us quite a bit here.

In the smaller postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, etc) the over is an impressive 55.1% on the closing number since 2006. 

I think this line will move up, and I like the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Morgan State Bears are always going to push the pace. They don't know any other way. Morgan State ranks 14th in the country in pace of play. They are getting out in transition at a very high rate.

Youngstown State ranks 224th in overall tempo. Youngstown State is 322nd in defensive efficiency in the country. The question with Morgan State is always whether they will make enough shots, but against this weak defense I do think they can score enough. 

The two offenses have massive advantages on the boards. Youngstown State ranks 73rd in second chance conversion percentage. The Morgan State defense ranks 279th. Morgan State's offense is 42nd in the nation in second chance conversions. Youngstown State's defense ranks 276th. 

In the smaller postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, etc) the over is an impressive 55.1% on the closing number since 2006. 

I think this line will move up, and I like the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders rank 97th in overall tempo. There are a lot of teams in the Horizon League that don't like to play quickly, but Wright State gets their chance to run and gun here.

Bryant ranks 7th in the nation in tempo. The Bulldogs have the leading scorer in the country in Peter Kiss. 

Both of these teams are excellent on the offensive glass. They both rank in the bottom 50 in the country in defensive rebounding as well. There should be a bunch of second chance opportunities throughout this contest. 

The offenses are both better than the defenses in this one. Both teams go to the rim and to the line quite a bit. Neither team has a strong shot blocker.

Expect a fast paced game here. Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia 76ers are both teams who prefer to play at a slow pace. These two teams want a halfcourt battle rather than a transition game.

Late in the NBA regular season, games between two teams with a high win percentage have been good under bets. In fact, games after game 60 of the regular season- when the road team has a win percentage of 55% or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 60% or higher.. and the total is 210 or higher- the under is a whopping 141-86 (62.1% unders).

This game fits this system nicely. Two good teams playing to better their position in the NBA playoff standings.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Most people would likely guess Gonzaga had the best offense in the country this year. That would be wrong. 

Purdue ranks first in the country in offensive efficiency for the season. Who ranks second? The Iowa Hawkeyes. Here we have a matchup of the top two offenses in terms of efficiency in the country. 

In Big Ten play, the Iowa Hawkeyes actually ranks first in offensive efficiency, and Purdue ranks second. 

Iowa ranks 96th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Purdue ranks 102nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Neither of these teams are very good on that end of the floor. 

Both these teams shoot the ball really well from 3 point range and both defenses struggle defending long range jumpers. 

On the whole, I don't like betting conference tournament unders. This though is a court where scoring has been just fine. Also, the Big Ten Tournament finals have actually been more to the over in the last decade. 

These offenses are just too good.

Take the over.