*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones defense is one of the most improved defenses in the country this year. They rank 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.6 per play. Iowa State was great on defense last weekend in their win at Texas Tech. Iowa State has a big homefield advantage as well, and that should make it tougher on TCU's offense here.

The TCU defense has been elite of late. TCU has a lot of veterans on this defense, and Patterson is a good defensive minded coach. TCU has allowed 6 points in their last two games.

I think perception of the Big 12 as everyone being high scoring has this number inflated by several points.

Take the under. 

*I selected this game early in the week. The line has since moved some. I would still select the under here, but for a 3 star rated play instead of 4. Thank you and good luck.* 

*4 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators take on the Georgia Bulldogs this weekend. Florida's offense has been really bad all season, and it is hard to imagine them turning things around much against a very good defense like Georgia. 

Georgia is a running team. The Bulldogs are going to run the football consistently here, and that uses up the clock. Florida is going to try to run as much as they can as well, because their quarterback play has been terrible.

The last two years this game has been extremely low scoring. I see another low scoring battle here with Georgia holding Florida to a very low number.

Take the under. 

*I selected this game early in the week. The line has since moved some. I would still select the under here, but for a 3 star rated play instead of 4. Thank you and good luck.* 

*4 Star CFB Big 10 Total Takedown* The Northwestern Wildcats defense has been very good against the run this year. Northwestern ranks 19th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. That is despite going against great rushing offenses in Wisconsin and Penn State already this year. 

Michigan State has run the ball on almost 60% of their offensive plays this year. I think Northwestern can do a solid job slowing down the run game here. 

Northwestern's offensive line is one of the worst in the Big 10. Michigan State ranks near the top of the country in quarterback hurries. Thorson isn't going to be comfortable in this game. 

Michigan State is 6th in the country in yards per play allowed. 

The defenses have the advantage across the board here. Also important to note, the wind is expected to be sustained at about 16 or 17 mph during this game. That is plenty to make it much harder to throw the football. Expect more running and conservative game plans.

The under is 36-14-1 in NW's last 51 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Appalachian State Mountaineers offense is really playing well right now. Appalachian State has a really good offensive front, and they'll have a big edge in the trenches in this game. 

UMass has been much better in recent games offensively. UMass has scored 50 and 55 points in their last two games. They won't score that here, but I do think they have enough weapons to give a short-handed Appalachian State defense some trouble.

UMass has been playing fast of late, and with them pushing the tempo a total of only 55 isn't very high. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas Jayhawks had 21 yards of offense against TCU last week. Kansas has failed to score a point in their last two games. They'll probably score here, but I don't think they score very many. A total set this high with one team (Kansas State) that plays so slowly, and another team that is so inept on offense, I have to take the under.

I do think Kansas State can score quite a few here, but I think this total should be around 55, so I'll take the value at this number. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The North Carolina Tar Heels defense has actually gotten a little better in the last few weeks. They didn't even allow 400 yards to VA Tech last week, but the Hokies scored 59 points. It was UNC interceptions and special teams blunders that led to the big point total for VA Tech. 

As North Carolina's defense has improved, their efficiency on offense has fallen badly. The number of injuries this team has on the offensive side of the ball right now is mind boggling. They have no real playmakers, and sustaining drives has been very difficult for them. It should be really hard against a Miami defense that is one of the top 20 in the nation.

Miami has some very big games on deck, and I'm not sure they will want to run the score up here. This is a good spot to get out with a win and move on for the Hurricanes.

The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 October games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 ACC games. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors have consistently been one of the best teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency the last three years. They have started out this season playing some really bad defense. Draymond Green and Steve Kerr both made extensive comments about this after their very tight win over Toronto a couple days ago. 

Golden State's defense will improve. This team has too many good defensive players and a defensive-minded coach. They aren't going to continue to be this bad. In fact, I imagine they will finish the year in the top six or eight in defensive efficiency once again.

Washington has made a focus on playing better defense this year. The Wizards rank 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Neither team ranks in the top five in pace in the NBA so far this year, and a total this high is extremely rare even for teams like Golden State.

It isn't an easy bet to make, but at this level I think the under holds value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NHL Slapshot Total* The Winnipeg Jets and Pittsburgh Penguins battle on Thursday night inside PPG PAINTS Arena. 

This Over is a prime example of how the NHL has really shifted over the past few years. Totals this high were never around a few years ago, but now they have value given the style of play and some of the rule changes that affect late game scoring.  Winnipeg and Pittsburgh have been two of the worst defensive teams in the NHL. Winnipeg is conceding 3.71 goals per game while the Penguins sit at an even 4. It's the way both teams play, as they are constantly attacking, which turns into some easy counter attacks for the opposition the other way.  

With that constant attack, it gives both teams many chances on possessions. Winnipeg is averaging over 3 goals per game, while the Penguins are right there with them.  The Jets have hit the Over in all but one game this season, while the Penguins are 7-3 to the Over. Its worth a move here, as both offenses are going to push the issue, especially knowing how poor each other is on the defensive end.  Take Over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Green Bay Packers start Brett Hundley here as Aaron Rodgers is out indefinitely with an injury. That's obviously a massive loss, and I expect the Packers to have a much more conservative game plan ready for this one. 

New Orleans had an extremely high scoring game filled with defensive and special teams touchdowns last week. That has inflated this total a bit.

The weather here should be a factor. The forecast calls for 15 mph winds and a 70% chance of rain during the game. Wind combined with rain is definitely a plus for the under. 

The New Orleans passing game isn't likely to be quite as effective in those conditions. 

Green Bay is better defensively at home, and the Saints aren't as good offensively on the road. The weather combines with a new QB for the Packers to create value on the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather is the story here. Pullman is experiencing some nasty weather this weekend. The current forecast calls for a 80% chance of rain with a temperature in the mid 40's and winds of 20 mph. 

That makes it very hard for passing attacks to work. Washington State will have to run more than normal. Colorado's passing defense is their strength, and Washington State isn't a very good running team.

Colorado's offense has been a disappointment all year. The Buffaloes are struggling to get explosive plays. Alex Grinch's defense is much improved at Washington State, and I think they bounce back from last week's game with a strong defensive effort.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Michigan/Penn State MONEY* The Michigan Wolverines have held all six of their opponents to season lows in total yards. There is no doubt this Michigan defense is excellent. Penn State's defense is 4th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.01. Michigan is second at only 3.68 per play allowed.

Penn State ranks in the bottom half of the country in terms of pace of play. Michigan ranks in the bottom 20 in tempo as well. I don't see either team playing quickly here.

Michigan is first in the nation in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. I think Michigan can reduce Penn State's big play ability much better than most teams.

Michigan's passing attack has been non-existent of late, and Penn State's front seven should be up for the challenge of stuffing the run.

There's a good chance this game stays in the 30's.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total*  I had this one lined at 70 points, so this is a big play for me. Both teams play at a very quick pace. Both teams have the ability to break a bunch of explosive plays. I don't see either defense being able to contain the opposition. Big bet on the over for me. 

North Texas' Mason Fine is really coming into his own in this offense. Florida Atlantic hasn't allowed less than 5.48 yards per play in a game against an FBS opponent all year. 

The North Texas defense has allowed 5.06 yards per play or more in all their games against FBS opponents. 

Both of these teams play fast and there will be a lot of possessions. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kentucky Wildcats defense has been exposed in SEC play because of a weak run defense. Mississippi State plays at a quick tempo and they can break a lot of big running plays. Look for Nick Fitzgerald to have a big game here. 

The Kentucky offense has a nice balanced attack, and I believe Mississippi State's defense is a bit overvalued right now. 

Last year's game sailed over the total and I see no reason to believe this will be any different. Look for big plays from both teams in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Buffalo is starting their third string quarterback in this one. Miami (Ohio) is without starting quarterback Gus Ragland. Billy Bahl is a big downgrade from Ragland. Vantrease gets the start for Buffalo with Anderson and Jackson expected to miss this game. 

Expect both teams to be far more cautious with their play calling here. These aren't explosive offenses to begin with, and I expect even less big plays with untested quarterbacks in the game. 

Look for the defenses to be geared to stop the run, and the run is likely to come often given the quarterback situation. I expect a sloppy low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Missouri is pushing the pace more again. After not play quite as quick for a couple games, the Tigers have been the fastest paced team on offense in the country in their last two games. Missouri's offense is starting to get more efficient, and this Idaho defense shouldn't be able to slow them down much at all.

Idaho has a good quarterback and should be able to complete some big plays against a weak Missouri secondary. Missouri has allowed a minimum of 31 points in every game this year, including a win over Missouri State 72-43 in the season opener.

Look for Missouri to run it up with a big number and Idaho to score a solid amount as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* Iowa is a team that relies heavily on the running game. That plays into the strength of the Northwestern defense. The Wildcats are allowing only 3.44 yards per carry despite facing some good rushing attacks this year. 

Northwestern's offense has been throwing it a lot more often this year. Justin Jackson is banged up and that is slowing down the offense a lot. The offensive line is a major problem for Northwestern. Look for Iowa to get a lot of pressure on Thorson here.

The wild card here is the weather. The forecast calls for 15 to 20 mph winds through this game, which makes both passing attacks have a much harder time. Wind is your best friend as an under bettor.

The under is 35-15-1 in Northwestern's last 51 home games. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NHL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Wild go at it inside Bell MTS Centre on Friday night.  These two teams like to really run and gun, which will make for a very entertaining game.  Looking at the Jets, they have averaged 3.0 goals themselves, but conceding almost 4 goals per game is nothing new to this team. They've been horrible on the defensive end dating back to last season. It stems from their fast paced offensive attack, which leaves them vulnerable to the counter. Both of which are good features to this over.  

Minnesota likes to play extremely fast too. The Wild have averaged 3.75 goals per game, but have also conceded the same.  The Wild are a perfect 4-0 to the Over and that number should only rise given the style they play. Along with that, the Wild will be well rested heading into this one, as their fresh legs will allow them to run wild.  These two teams are a match made in heaven for a lot of goals. Expect tons of fireworks here.  

The over is 5-0 in the Wild's last 5. The over is 5-0 in the Jets last 5 playing on 2 days of rest. The over is 5-0 in the Jets last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in the previous game. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Winnipeg. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Timberwolves want to push the tempo more this year. Thibodeau's team has all kinds of offensive weapons. With Towns, Butler, and Wiggins this team has three very high level scorers. Teague is a solid point guard and he has good speed. The Timberwolves preseason games showed how quick they want to play. The team believes Teague is a great guy to have to help them speed up the game.

The Utah Jazz aren't going to go really fast this year, but Quin Snyder and his team have been adamant that they are looking to play faster than they did a year ago. 

While the Jazz have a good defense, the Timberwolves do not. In today's era of the NBA, this is a pretty low total. 

Minnesota's offensive efficiency and the pace point to an over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Opening Night Totals TKO* The Denver Nuggets offense absolutely took off after Jokic was given a bigger role in the offense in the middle of the season last year. After the All-Star break, Denver ranked first in the NBA in points per possession. The Nuggets are going to be a top five offense in the NBA again this year. They also want to push the tempo.

Utah is still going to be a solid defensive team, but the big change for Utah this year should be their tempo. Quin Snyder always has said he wants to speed things up. The Jazz haven't done it. Beat writers in the area said in practices the Jazz are playing significantly faster. While I don't like to read much into the preseason, the Jazz played quicker and averaged 112.3 points per game.

The posted total last time these two played was higher than this. Denver's totals were consistently 220 late last year. I know it can't be that high here with a very good Utah defense, but I see this as a chance to take advantage of some value on the over thanks to Utah's change of pace.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION* The Washington Capitals and Toronto Maple Leafs battle on Tuesday inside Capital One Arena.

This one has the makings of a game with a lot of fireworks.

Both offenses have been on fire to start the season. The Maple Leafs have averaged 5.20 goals per game thus far and they get a Capitals defense that is playing with very little confidence. The Caps have conceded 22 goals thus far, which really should open things up for the Leafs here. Expect them to crash the net and put a lot of pressure on. 

Washington's offense has been up to the challenge themselves. The Capitals have seen Alexander Ovechkin go off early on and the Caps have been feeding off his energy. Washington has put in 3.67 goals per game thus far and they have been one of the most explosive teams. With how many weapons this team has, they have the ability to go off and score in bunches. 

Take the over here.

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle SMASHER*  The Washington Redskins' offense is very balanced this year. Kirk Cousins has upped his play this season, and I think it's largely because of an improved supporting cast. 

The 49ers defense has typically played well at home but very poorly on the road. San Francisco is weak in the secondary, and the Redskins have plenty of weapons to take advantage of that weakness. 

I'm not convinced the Washington defense is all that good, and San Francisco's offense has shown glimpses of their potential. Look for them to air it out here and complete some big plays. 

The over is 7-0 in the Redskins' last 7 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in the 49ers last 4 during Week 6 of the season. An 11-0 angle. 

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* Colorado State's offense is one of the best in the country when it comes to efficiency. Inside Mountain West play, there aren't going to be many defenses that can slow them down. They are averaging 6.9 yards per play in their last three games, which is good for 10th best in the nation.

Nevada's defense ranks 100th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 6.2. Colorado State's defense isn't much better at 5.8 per play allowed. 

Nevada ranks in the top ten in the country in fastest tempo on offense this year. Colorado State's pace rank is almost exactly the average in the nation. 

I expect Colorado State to get a lead here with big plays and Nevada to be forced to play extremely quick to try to get back in the game. 

Look for plenty of explosive plays and uptempo offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over*  The New Mexico Lobos run a unique option offense. New Mexico always ranks near the top of college football in yards per carry. They had extra time to prepare for this game, and in their last contest they average 8.85 yards per carry. Expect some more explosive runs against a Fresno State defense that isn't accustomed to defending the option.  

Fresno State is looking to play faster under their new coaching staff. This offense is clearly improved and the weakness of the New Mexico defense is their secondary. Look for Fresno State to take advantage of that. 

This total is set relatively low, and I see value on the over. 

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes defense has been dominant of late. This defensive line is one of the best in the country, and they are causing some major problems for opponents. I expect them to be in the Nebraska backfield frequently here.

J.T. Barrett has been inconsistent this year, and this is a spot where he has some factors working against him. Nebraska's defense should be fired up to make a better showing after losing 62-3 to Ohio State last year in Columbus. Another major factor here is the weather. The wind is expected to be blowing at a sustained 20 mph during this game. That's plenty to make it very hard to throw accurate passes.

Tanner Lee isn't very good, and the weather will make Nebraska even more one dimensional. Ohio State's secondary should give him plenty of trouble too.

I had this one projected at 55 before accounting for the weather, and the sustained winds of 20 mph are certainly worth at least 3 points on the total making this one quite a bit off my projection now.

The under is 7-2 in Nebraska's last 9 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New Mexico State Aggies rank 11th in the country in pace of play. New Mexico State is playing extremely fast and creating lots of scoring opportunities with their talented offense. Tyler Rogers is coming off an awful game at quarterback for them, but overall he's been solid and I expect him to bounce back against a Georgia Southern pass defense that is very weak. The New Mexico State running game is great with two strong runners as well. I think New Mexico State puts up quite a few points here.

Georgia Southern's triple option attack has gotten better in recent weeks. New Mexico State can be run on. They allowed 9.21 yards per carry last week against Appalachian State. On the year, they rank among the 30 worst run defenses in the country.

The over is 23-7-1 in the Aggies last 31 road games. The over is 4-0 in GA Southern's last 4 vs a team with a losing record. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons offense put up more than 500 yards against Miami (Ohio) last week. Bowling Green ranks 4th in the nation in tempo on offense (amount of time between snaps).

Ohio ranks 58th out of 130 in time between snaps, so they are relatively quick as well. The Bobcats defense has been much worse in recent weeks, and if you look at their injury report that makes a lot of sense. There are a ton of key players injured here.

Bowling Green's defense ranks 124th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Ohio should have success both through the air and on the ground.

I made this total 64.  

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls defense isn't all that good to start with. They have a few injuries that make them short-handed, and they are coming off a seven overtime game. I expect Northern Illinois' uptempo offense to get plenty of scoring chances here. Northern Illinois ranks in the top ten in the country in terms of tempo.

Buffalo's Drew Anderson has really impressed me at quarterback. He's played better than their original starter Tyree Jackson. Anderson is more of an accurate passer who can spread the ball around.

Both of these teams play at a faster than average tempo, and there are no weather concerns at all for this game. This total is too low by several points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION*  Baylor and Oklahoma State are not two teams that I would typically be looking to play an under with, but the weather and this high number make this a must play for me. 

Wind is by far the toughest weather condition for quarterbacks to deal with. Both of these teams throw the ball a lot and I expect  the wind to make their pass efficiency numbers lower than normal. The forecast here calls for sustained winds of 21 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph.

The Oklahoma State defense is clearly better than last year and I expect Baylor's defense to improve with a defensive minded coach at the helm. While this game will likely be fairly high scoring, this kind of extreme number is a must play on the under in these conditions. 

The under is 6-0 in Baylor's last 6 versus a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Baylor's last 5 after allowing 170 or fewer passing yards last game. The under is 5-0 in Oklahoma State's last 5 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground in their last game. A 16-0 angle. 

Take the under.

Take the Over.

*3 Star Yankees/Indians Game 5 CASH* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber in this one. Kluber is coming off a bad start, but before that start he was on a run that no pitcher could match all season. Kluber has been extremely dominant this year. I'm not going to let one start ruin my opinion of him. Kluber had a ridiculous 15.6% swinging strike rate during the season. He allowed less than 1 home run per nine innings. 

Kluber has a great history against the Yankees overall even with this last start being a bad one. The Yankees lineup has combined to hit .184 against him. 

C.C. Sabathia has been pretty good this year. I'm also encouraged by the fact that Sonny Gray could pitch in long relief here, and all of the Yankees bullpen arms are well rested. 

Both teams will use their bullpens at the first signs of trouble here, and these are the two best bullpens in the American League. That's a large reason for this bet. 

The wind will be blowing in from right field here and the temperature will be cool. The conditions favor the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Monday Late Night MONEY* The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers meet at Chase Field on Monday night. Arizona has to win this one to stay alive. They'll start their ace Zack Greinke here. 

Greinke was amazing at home all year. He had a 2.87 ERA and allowed a batting average of only .207 at home this season. He didn't pitch well in his last couple starts, but he has decent numbers against the Dodgers, and I see him pitching well with his back against the wall in this spot.

Yu Darvish has been great down the stretch this year, and in 63 plate appearances the DBacks hitters have a miserable .190 average against him. That's a small sample size, but Darvish has great stuff and is well rested.

Chase Field's roof status isn't yet available. If it is open here, the wind will be blowing in 15 mph. Expect both teams to use their best relievers in this spot, which certainly helps.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Kansas City Chiefs offense has gone back to being much more conservative in recent weeks. Kansas City is throwing a bunch of short passes and not stretching the field. 

Kansas City also ranks dead last in the NFL in terms of pace of play. The Chiefs use up a bunch of time in between plays, which is obviously helpful to the under. 

The Houston Texans scored a bunch of points on a bad Titans defense last week, but I don't expect a repeat here. I like Watson, but I don't think it will just come easily for the rookie quarterback. 

Both defensive lines should be able to apply a lot of pressure on the quarterback here. That means less time to sit in the pocket and let long passing plays develop.

Both teams play slower than the league average and both teams run the ball more than the league average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks and LA Rams meet on Sunday afternoon. These two both rank in the top five in the NFL in terms of pace of play in neutral situations. Both teams should keep the pace moving in this one. 

The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play. The Seahawks are 13th in the NFL in yards per play. The Rams are 27th in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.7. The Seahawks are 13th at 5.2. Seattle's defense has been much better at home than on the road.

This is a series that has been filled with a bunch of low scoring close games. That's why I see value on the over here. Why? The Rams are a completely different team this year. The offense is now dynamic and playing fast. Under Jeff Fisher in previous years, the Rams offense played slowly and was awful almost all the time.

I believe the oddsmakers are underrating how big of a change there has been in LA. Also, the Seattle defense is clearly not as good as they were a couple years ago. Russell Wilson has more weapons in the passing game than he did last year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros had the top offense in baseball all year long. This Houston offense is the real deal. Altuve, Springer, Correa, Bregman, and the rest of the bunch are so good. 

I certainly don't trust Doug Fister to get this Astros lineup out on a consistent basis. Fister has below average stuff and I think there's a good chance he won't get very deep into this one.

The Boston Red Sox offense has been better at home. Boston faces Brad Peacock here. He was good this year, but he is inconsistent. He is relatively wild, and Boston should make him work.

A big key here is the weather. Winds of 15 mph blowing out to center field and left field are expected here. That brings this system into play: on a total of 9.5 or lower with wind blowing out at 5 mph or greater and a temperature of 50 degrees or warmer the over is 81-50 (62% overs) in the last ten years in the postseason.

I think both teams get a lot of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Nebraska Cornhuskers defense has been very good of late. Nebraska has allowed less than 4 yards per play to three straight opponents. Granted the opponents weren't all that good, but the Cornhuskers have clearly improved on defense.

On offense, I don't trust Nebraska at all. Tanner Lee isn't the answer at quarterback, and the backfield has suffered a lot of injuries. 

Wisconsin is going to do what they do all the time. The Badgers are going to run the football consistently and they are going to move very slowly. They rank in the bottom ten in terms of tempo every single year. 

Wisconsin's defense is one of the best in the country. They are allowing only 4.00 yards per play on the season. The Badgers aren't likely to give up very much against a questionable Nebraska offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Texas Longhorns defense has gotten much better in the last few weeks. Texas has a bunch of talented guys on their defense, and now it appears they are becoming a unit. Texas allowed only 7 points at Iowa State last week. They took USC to overtime in a low scoring game a couple games ago. This isn't the same defense we saw in week one. 

Kansas State ranks 94th in offensive pace of play. The Wildcats aren't going to play fast. Texas ranks 68th in offensive pace of play. They aren't playing as fast as many expected either. 

Bill Snyder's team only throws the ball 35.5% of the time. They will run the ball and use the clock as much as they can. Snyder is a great coach, and he knows they are at a talent disadvantage here. They'll look to shorten the game and use up a bunch of time. 

Kansas State ranks 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Texas has been a top 25 defense in that category in their last three games. 

The under is 4-0 in the Wildcats last 4 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing last game. The under is 4-0 in the Longhorns last 4 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 12-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the Week* Air Force and Navy run the same triple option attack. That gives the defense a massive advantage in this matchup. They practice against it every day. Usually when these teams play against a normal opponent, the defenses aren't well prepared to stop the option. In this game, both teams know their assignments really well.

Both teams run almost every single play, and the clock will be ticking away quickly here. Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers only throw the ball on 31% of their plays on offense. Minnesota is going to ground and pound here, and the Golden Gophers don't move quickly either. How slow are they? Minnesota is taking the second most amount of time between snaps (only Army is moving slower). The Golden Gophers will slow this game down.

Purdue has been much improved this year, and they had extra time to prepare for this game. I think that helps them most on the defensive end here. On the other side, P.J. Fleck was extremely disappointed in his team's defensive effort last week against Maryland. They should be better here.

A major factor in this play is the weather. The weather is calling for a 50% chance of showers with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 mph in this game. That's some very unfavorable conditions for scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in DeKalb will be a big problem here. Northern Illinois has been throwing the football more often than normal this year, but they'll have to go back toward the ground game here. Kent State has wanted to throw more with Bollas at quarterback, but they'll be back to running a bunch with these conditions.  How bad will the weather be? The forecast calls for sustained winds of 22 mph throughout the game with gusts up to 30 mph. That's enough to completely change game plans. Nothing helps an under more than heavy winds.

Kent State is 127th in the nation in total offense. The Golden Flashes haven't scored more than 13 points in a game this year against an FBS opponent. They have scored 3, 3, and 0 in three of the contests. They'll face a Northern Illinois defense that ranks fifth in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. Can Kent top the 10 point mark here? I wouldn't count on it. 

The Kent State defense isn't as bad as it has looked. Kent State was torched by Clemson and Louisville. 

The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two at Northern Illinois. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Pitt Panthers pass defense has been atrocious the last two years. Pittsburgh allowed Oklahoma State to score 49 points and throw more than 400 yards in the first half alone earlier this year. I'm not suggesting Syracuse's offense is as good as Oklahoma State's, but the Orange will play very fast and throw the ball around a bunch.

Last year, the final score when these two met was 76-61. Pitt has 644 yards of offense and Syracuse had 668 yards of offense. 

Because Pittsburgh has played some teams that slow the game down of late (Rice, Georgia Tech) that has lowered this number. 

Max Browne threw the ball well last week, and this Syracuse defense is really bad. With a bunch of possessions for both teams, I'm taking the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions haven't allowed more than 352 yards in a game so far this year. This Penn State defensive front is aggressive, and they get into the backfield often. They have 45 tackles for a loss so far this year, which is good for third in the country. 

Northwestern's offensive front allowed 8 sacks against Wisconsin last week, and the Wildcats have a bad combination of an offensive line that is very weak and a quarterback that holds the ball too long. That should be a problem again here.

Northwestern's defense has been solid this year, and the Wildcats have typically played Penn State tough, especially in Evanston.

The weather is a major reason for me wanting the under in this game. The forecast calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30 mph. Those kinds of winds are definitely a big positive for the under. There is a chance of showers throughout this game as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Playoff Totals SMASHER* The Cleveland Indians host the New York Yankees in what should be a really exciting series. The temperature will be fairly moderate in this one and the wind will be blowing in at about 5 mph from left field. 

Vic Carapazza is scheduled to be the home plate umpire. He rates as one of the top five under umpires in the majors in my umpire ratings. He will both help pitchers in this one.

Trevor Bauer really pitched well this year. He has a 3.88 FIP and a 3.60 xFIP. Bauer has only allowed 2 homers against this Yankees lineup in 160 plate appearances. He has allowed a solid .305 wOBA. 

Sonny Gray has great numbers against the Indians lineup. In 196 plate appearances, the Indians have a very low .273 wOBA against him. Gray has great stuff and I think he'll pitch well here.

These are the two best bullpens in the American League. That's very important in the playoffs. Both managers will be quicker to use their top relievers more often and stretch them out.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Super System* Blake Snell has allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 7 games. Kevin Gausman is coming off a bad start, but he has been very good overall in the last couple months. I expect both teams to have some key bats out of the lineup or pulled during the game here. 

The final day of the season is a great under day in MLB by the numbers. It makes sense because players and umpires are ready to head home. Quicker innings with more first pitch swings and called strikes are the norm.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Brault is a young prospect for the Pirates who has pitched well in a small sample size. He's a guy with a high upside, and the Pirates are really high on him.

Gio Gonzalez has been very good this year. Gonzalez has given up a lot of soft contact, and he's been good at getting out of jams with ground balls or strikeouts.

The final game of the regular season has been a big under day in the past. How big? Since 2008, the under is 51-25 (67.1%) when the posted total is 8 runs or higher.

The under is 7-0 in the Pirates last 7 Sunday games. The under is 6-0-2 in the Pirates last 8 vs. the NL East. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0-1 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 vs. the NL Central. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Washington. A 31-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The final day of the regular season has been a great day to play unders in the past several years. It makes sense to me. Players are ready to go home after a long season. That is especially true for bad teams. These are two really bad teams with zero to play for in this one. 

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests. 

This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

*4 Star MLB 100% System Play SMASHER*

Luis Perdomo has a 3.55 ERA against the Giants in his career. Johnny Cueto has held the Padres lineup to a miserable .184 batting average. Cueto is at his best in day games, and he faces a very weak lineup in this one.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's have a key bat missing in Olson (injury) and Adrian Beltre is expected to be out for the Rangers. Mengden has pitched better late in the season. Cole Hamels is generally at his best in the last month of the year.

The final day of the season is a great under day in MLB by the numbers. It makes sense because players and umpires are ready to head home. Quicker innings with more first pitch swings and called strikes are the norm.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Rams are fourth in the NFL in tempo. I really like the way this new offense is working, and they are able to take advantage of Jared Goff's strengths in this new system. It's clear that Jeff Fisher and the previous coaching staff were holding Goff back.

The Rams have some good weapons on offense in Watkins, Kupp, and Todd Gurley in the backfield. The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play on the year at 6.6 (behind only Kansas City). 

Dallas is middle of the pack in the offensive stats so far this year, but they have faced three top ten defenses so far this year. The Rams are still transitioning over to a new system, and it is clear that they aren't quite ready for this yet.

Dallas plays at an average tempo, while the Rams rank fourth in the NFL in pace. 

This will be the best offense the Cowboys have played so far this year. I see both teams scoring quite a few here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* What's been the best conference to under bettors in recent history? Easily the AFC North. It makes a lot of sense to me. When you have teams like the Steelers and Ravens leading the way year after year, you'll have a bunch of hard hitting defensive contests. 

Since the 2004-2005 season, games with a total of 41 or higher in the AFC North have gone 55-27 to the under. That's 67.1% unders.

The Steelers haven't been the same offense on the road the last few years. The Steelers are also dead last in the NFL in rushing yards so far this year. Le'Veon Bell showing up late seems to have hurt the running game. 

The Ravens offense is a mess in the passing game. Joe Flacco isn't healthy and he doesn't have many weapons on the outside either.

The Ravens are tied for last in the NFL in yards per play. The Steelers are only 20th in yards per play as well.

The under is 7-0 in the Steelers last 7 road games against an AFC North foe. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 when the underdog in the game is off a neutral site loss. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 games in the NFL where a favorite of 3 or more from their last game lost by 35 points or more (Ravens). A 16-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors pass defense is extremely weak. Colorado State has big play makers on the offense at multiple spots, including the best receiver in the Mountain West. The Rams are going to get a lot of big plays in this game.

Colorado State finished last season by scoring 46, 49, and 63 points in their last three Mountain West games. They probably won't score that much here, but I think they'll be in the end zone quite a few times.

Hawaii's offense is improved this year under Dru Brown at the quarterback spot. Last week they struggled, but don't overreact to that, the game last week was played in bad weather at Wyoming (high wind). Colorado State's defense isn't very good. In fact, they are allowing 6.2 yards per play this year, which ranks among the 30 worst defenses in the country. Hawaii is allowing 6.3 yards per play. 

The over is 16-6 in Hawaii's last 22 games. The over is 4-1 in Colorado State's last 5 road games. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNLV Rebels have a good offensive line. It is one of the best in the conference. UNLV has been running the ball and breaking some big plays in the running game. The Rebels have a couple receivers who are capable of getting open deep, and as a whole their offense is clearly improved from a year ago.

Defensively, UNLV is way down from a year ago, and I expect a lot of teams to put up big numbers on UNLV this year.

The San Jose State Spartans are coached by a previous Dino Babers assistant. What does that mean? It means a very fast tempo and very little defense being played. Utah State rolled up 61 points on San Jose State last week. Utah State isn't very good on offense. This is a Spartans team that is going to give up points by the bunches all year long.

The over is 13-3 in UNLV's last 16 home games. 

I think this has a solid chance of getting to 70 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Auburn Tigers have a top ten defense this year. Auburn is tied for fourth in the country at 3.63 yards per play allowed. 

Mississippi State's defense ranks 14th in the country in yards per play allowed. The Bulldogs have been significantly better at wrapping up on defense this year. 

This is a matchup of two good defenses, and neither team is playing very fast. The Bulldogs are slightly slower than the average team in the country, and Auburn actually ranks among the 40 slowest teams in the country here. 

Nick Fitzgerald has to do too much for Mississippi State on offense. He's a very good player, but the best defenses will find ways to slow him down and force someone else to beat them.

Auburn's passing game hasn't gotten going this year, and they have been very one-dimensional.

Both teams run the ball more than 60% of the time. A moving clock is great for an under.

The under is 5-0 in Auburn's last 5 games after gaining 450 yards or more in their last game. The under is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 home games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 14-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates play extremely fast and they play no defense. They are dead last against the pass in the country and 123rd in the country in run defense.

South Florida ranks third in the nation in tempo. The Bulls will be glad to push the tempo and score a ton of points in this one. Flowers is a playmaker and he and his offense have looked better the last couple games. East Carolina's defense should make them look even better.

South Florida has had some trouble defending the passing game this year. East Carolina has a decent passing game and with the number of possessions there will be in this one, I see them scoring a decent amount of points as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Northwestern and Wisconsin have a history of tight low scoring games. I see no reason to expect anything different here. In the last four meetings, the highest final total was 41 points. The last two games finished 13-7 and 21-7. This one likely won't be that low, but this total is too high.

Wisconsin and Northwestern are both running teams first and that means a lot of ticking clock throughout in this one. Both teams will be geared to stop the run, and I think we'll have a lot of long slow drives in this one. Expect teams to have to settle for field goals and that's a big plus in this type of slow plod it out game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini host the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Friday night. Both of these offenses have had serious trouble of late. Nebraska had only 306 yards against a very weak Rutgers defense. Nebraska put up only 17 points the previous week against Northern Illinois from the MAC.

Illinois hasn't gained more than 354 in a game so far this year. The Fighting Illini were held to just 14 first downs and 216 yards in their season opener against Ball State. The Fighting Illini beat Western Kentucky, but they still only had 300 yards. They racked up some yardage late against USF in a blowout loss.

Both of these teams rank among the 30 slowest paced teams in the country.

Nebraska and Illinois are both improved on defense. Nebraska's defense has been great the last two weeks, and Illinois has been very good on defense in their home games this year. Neither team has a good option at all at quarterback either.

This game likely won't be pretty, and I think it stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I had to wait for the lineups and the umpire here, but when all that information came out, it confirmed my initial lean.

Tampa Bay is sitting out Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier, and Lucas Duda here. The Orioles are without both Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo. There are some very questionable hitters in both of these lineups.

The home plate umpire here is Vic Carrapazza. He is one of the best under umpires in the league. He'll help both of these guys who typically struggle with walks.

Unders do very well in the last weekend of the MLB regular season. Teams under .500 against each other are 60% to the under in the last ten years when the total is 9 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The Green Bay Packers offense is riddled with injuries right now. The fact that they have to play on Thursday night can't have made the coaching staff very happy when they are so badly banged up. They needed the full time to recover.

While the injury to Randall Cobb (questionable) gets more attention, the Packers offensive line problems are the biggest issue here. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 13 times already this year, and the team has multiple backups injured on the offensive front as well. No one unit in the NFL is more banged up than this Packers offensive line.

Mike Glennon is a mess at quarterback for the Bears. He never throws the ball downfield, which greatly limits the Bears upside on offense, and it hurts Jordan Howard's ability to run the ball as well since he can't stretch the defense with his arm. 

Green Bay has slowed their pace down a bunch this year (likely due to injuries). They rank 22nd in the league in tempo. Chicago ranks 31st in the league in pace. 

The slow pace here is a key and the defensive lines having the advantage is as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Atlanta Braves take on the New York Mets here. Sean Newcomb takes the mound for the Braves. Newcomb is a guy with a fairly high upside, and the Mets have struggled of late against lefties. It's no surprise, since the Mets are without almost all of their best hitters from the start of the year.

This game fits a late season totals (under) trend. Both teams are out of the playoff contention and we'll see a lot of new faces in the lineup here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chase Field is a great place for hitters with the roof open. In the past ten years, the over is 56% at Chase Field when the roof is open and the total is 9.5 or lower. That number is above 60% in the past two years alone.

Matt Moore and Robbie Ray are two lefties who give up a bunch of hard contact. Moore has a 6.51 ERA on the road this year, and he's facing a DBacks team that should have all its regulars back for Tuesday's contest. This team has some tremendous power hitters against lefties. Moore has allowed 26 homers this year.

Robbie Ray is certainly a good pitcher, but his home/road splits are very interesting. Ray has a 4.37 ERA at home this year vs. a road ERA of 1.79. Last year, he had a 5.36 ERA at home. He struggles at Chase Field more often than not.

At a good price on a key number, I'll take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles are going to miss the playoffs this year. The Pittsburgh Pirates are out of the playoffs as well. 

I ran some extensive queries on the last week of the regular season in baseball and found that two teams who are out of the playoff race usually equates to value on the under in the last few games of the season.

From game 156 of the season (162 game season), the under is hitting 61.2% in the last ten years when both teams have won 50% of their games or less and the total is at least 7 runs. This one fits that angle.

Williams has pitched great at home all season. He is good at keeping the ball in the yard with his sinker, and the Orioles rely on homers quite a bit. 

The Pirates offense is a mess right now, and Kevin Gausman has been very good late in the season.

The under is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 interleague road games. The under is 8-0 in Williams last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record. A 12-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs are first in the NFL in yards per play at 7.6. That is a full yard better than the second best team in the NFL so far this season.

Kansas City is a much better offense than they have been in the past. Alex  Smith is able to be more aggressive now because he has the weapons around him. With Tyreek Hill as a big play option on the outside and Kareem Hunt making a big splash in the backfield, the Chiefs have home run threats all around. Travis Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the NFL, and I don't think the Chargers have anyone who can cover him. Los Angeles is without Verrett at cornerback, and this is a game where they will badly miss him.

The LA Chargers are still good on offense with Rivers competing at a high level. The offense around him is a lot healthier than it has been at most times in the past few years. The Chargers are 10th in the NFL in yards per play.

Expect a lot of big plays from both teams in this one. Perception of the Chiefs still being a defensive team that plays low scoring games has held this number down. The over is 4-0 in KC's last 4 road games. 

Take the over.

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cleveland Indians send Corey Kluber to the hill on Sunday. It's hard to put into words how amazing he has been since June 1. Kluber has allowed 2 runs or less in 17 of his last 21 starts. Most impressive to me is his strikeout/walk ratio of late. Kluber has allowed only 3 walks in his last six games. During that span, he has 56 strikeouts. Amazing stuff. 

Mike Leake has been very good for Seattle since coming over in a trade. Leake has a FIP of 2.45 or lower in each of his four starts with Seattle. Leake has allowed only a .219 wOBA against the Indians lineup in a decent sample size. 

What about Kluber against the Mariners? In a huge sample size, the Mariners has a wOBA of .282 against Kluber.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Two good quarterbacks with a lot of weapons around them face defenses without a bunch of key players in this one. 

Vic Beasley and Courtney Upshaw are expected to miss this one for Atlanta, and those are two key guys. That should give Matt Stafford more time to throw. Stafford has proven at this point that he is a very good quarterback when given time to throw.

On the Detroit side, Jarrod Davis is expected to miss this one and that is huge since I consider him one of the most important players on this team. Safety Tavon Wilson is a key guy who would have played a major role in slowing down the Falcons pass attack, but he's expected to miss this one too.

Non-divisional overs of 52.5 or lower in domes have cashed at 56% in the NFL between week 2 and week 12 (the percentage gets lower late in the year as games mean more).

Both of these are big play offenses, and I expect some blown assignments and lapses by the defenses in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Iowa ranks 27th in the nation in highest percentage of running plays compared to overall offensive plays. The Hawkeyes are going to come out and try to run the ball consistently at Penn State. I don't see Iowa taking many chances in the passing game here.

Penn State is playing slower on offense than they did last year, and Iowa is always a team that takes their time with the football.

The Iowa front seven is solid, and I think they'll make Barkley (a great runner) work hard for his yards here.

There is bad blood here after Penn State said Iowa quit in last year's game. Iowa should bring a strong effort, and I think that should help the under. 

The under is 5-1 in Iowa's last 6 home games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats are playing slower this year than they did last season. They've also been much improved on defense. They rank second in the nation in run defense.

The Florida Gators defense hasn't been great in the first two games, but they faced two pretty good teams. Florida should settle in and be a top 20 defense by the end of the year.

The Wildcats offense is running the ball 63% of the time on their plays this year. Florida is playing 122nd fastest out of 130 teams in the country. It's a combination that should equal a lot of ticking clock and less possessions for each team. 

Kentucky is extremely hungry to stop their losing streak against Florida, and this should be a good environment for football Saturday. 

My number here was 42.5, so I see several points of value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers rolled up some amazing offensive stats against an FCS school, and in their two games against FBS opponents they have scored 13 (against S Carolina) and 3 points (against Purdue). Now, they face easily the best defense they have seen so far this year. 

Missouri ranked in the top ten in tempo all last year. They are outside the top 30 so far this season. They have clearly slowed down. Drew Lock has been extremely inefficient at quarterback.

Auburn talked about playing faster a lot in the offseason, but the Tigers are playing slower than the average team in the country. The offense needs more work, and they run the ball at a very high rate (keeps the clock ticking).

The Auburn defense is first in the nation in yards per play allowed. Auburn's offense is 102nd in the nation in yards per play. Auburn should control this game, and their defense should do the heavy lifting.

This total is too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys offense is performing like a well-oiled machine right now. Oklahoma State is averaging 8.64 yards per play through three games. That's a tremendous number. The Cowboys like to play fast as well. Their overall tempo numbers are skewed a bit right now, because they have been blowing teams out so badly that they slow down a lot by the end of the game. 

TCU ranks 33rd quickest in the country in tempo, and their offense has been much better so far this year. I expect them to be able to move the ball and score plenty here on an Oklahoma State defense that I believe is overrated right now.

I see a typical Big 12 shootout in Stillwater on Saturday.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Appalachian State is a very good mid-major type team. The Mountaineers offense leans very heavily though on running back Jalin Moore. Moore is questionable and his coach said he will be a gametime decision for this one. Moore had a walking boot on earlier this week, so he is clearly in a lot of pain. Depth at running back is a problem for App State this year. 

Appalachian State has one of the best defenses of any of the smaller name teams in the country. The Mountaineers have a very good secondary full of veterans. 

Wake Forest's offense put up big numbers against Presbyterian and Utah State. Appalachian State's defense will be a much tougher unit to face. 

Wake Forest's defense has been very solid the last couple years, and Dave Clawson is a defensive-minded coach.

I think Appalachian State comes ready to play here in a rare chance to host a "big" guy from their state. Tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't like to make a habit of betting under this low of a number, but I like the value here. I think this game stays in the 30's. 

Vanderbilt's offense is definitely better than they were a couple years ago, but the Commodores are going to get a wakeup test when they face the best defenses in the country. I don't see Vanderbilt being able to run on this very strong Bama defensive line. I still don't trust Shurmur to be the guy to make big plays in this spot either.

Alabama's offense is good, but Vanderbilt's defense has exceeded my expectations in a big way. Vanderbilt played a good MTSU offense and shut them down. They completely shut down Kansas State last week too. Vanderbilt ranks in the top five in the nation in all major categories.

Both teams play among the 30 slowest paces of play in college football.

I'll be surprised if Vanderbilt scores more than 10, and I see this as a game where both teams run the ball a lot.

The under is 55-25 in Vandy's last 80 conference contests.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* UCF is much more prepared on offense this year. Milton has a year under his belt, and he'll be much better in Scott Frost's fast paced offense. UCF put up 61 points in game one this year against FIU. They won't put up a huge number like that against Maryland, but I do think they'll get a lot of yards and scoring opportunities here.

Maryland's offense will be one of the most improved in the country this year. UCF lost a lot defensively from a year ago, and they are particularly weak at the linebacker and secondary spots. Maryland's young quarterback Hill should be able to put up some nice numbers on this UCF team.

I considered this line early in the week, and saw money coming on the under and waited. At this price, I'm willing to fly in the face of the line move and take the over. My number here is 67 points. 

There isn't expected to be any weather issues here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I've played the Tulsa over in each of the last two weeks. The final score in each of those games has topped 100 points. I don't think this one will get that high, but I have to play the over again here.

New Mexico will likely have a backup quarterback here, but the Lobos rushing attack has been great in the last few years. I think they'll be able to break big plays here too. Tulsa is easily dead last in the nation in rushing yards per carry allowed. Tulsa is allowing a whopping 7.57 yards per carry on the year, which is the worst in the country by more than half a yard! 

Tulsa's pace of play is the single fastest of any team in the country. They will be looking to play quickly and take advantage of a New Mexico defense that lacks high end talent. Tulsa is 12th in the nation in total offense.

The over is 20-6 in Tulsa's last 26 home games. 

Look for plenty of big plays from both teams.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* These are two option teams up against each other. Both teams run the ball more than 75% of the time. With that kind of rate of running the football, you have to be extremely efficient on offense to score a lot of points. Tulane plays at a slower than average pace. Army plays at one of the three slowest paces of any team in the country.

The practice these teams get against option attacks every day makes the defenses perform much better against the option than a typical defense. This is where they are accustomed to seeing.

I had this number at 42.

Take the under big here. 

*4 Star Play Under* By the long term trends, taking the under when two teams are playing that are fighting for a playoff spot late in the season has been a good move. 

From game 147 of the season, when two teams with a win percentage of 50% or higher meet and the total is 8.5 or higher, with the wind blowing in at all, the under is a whopping 64-28 (70% Wins). 

The wind will be howling in from right center field here at 20 to 25 mph. That's a significant wind to where it will be very hard to hit it out of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. It's possible for the big sluggers like Aaron Judge, but there won't be any cheap ones.

Jose Berrios and C.C. Sabathia have both been solid this year, and these two bullpens have been pitching well of late.

The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 20-7-2 in Sabathia's last 29 home starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Orioles have the worst weighted on base average in the majors in the last two weeks. Baltimore has been very streaky this year on offense, and they have been ice cold of late. Boston is dealing with some injuries right now. Hanley Ramirez is questionable for this one. The Red Sox are worse than average in the majors in wOBA in the last couple weeks as well.

Mike Muchlinski is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. It also helps a lot to get the wind blowing in from center field at 10-12 mph during this game with moderate temperatures. 

Drew Pomeranz has been solid all year. Kevin Gausman has been very good of late, and he has a stellar track record against AL East opponents, especially at home.

The under is 4-0-1 in Gausman's last 5 starts vs. the Red Sox. The under is 3-0-1 in Pomeranz's last 4 starts vs. the Orioles. A combined 7-0 trend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The LA Rams are going to play fast this year. They have a brand new coach and system, and it already showed to be a big positive for Jared Goff. Goff definitely has potential, and he has good weapons now in Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp. Todd Gurley is still a quality runner as well. I think the Rams offense is much improved this year.

The Redskins have a bottom six or eight defense in the NFL, and I think the Rams can have another nice game here on offense. 

The Rams are dealing with a bunch of injuries in the secondary right now. The Redskins didn't look great in week one on offense, but I think they'll be better here. They still have a solid amount of talent at the wide receiver spots.

In weeks 2 and 3 in the NFL, when the total is 45.5 or lower, and wind speeds are forecasted to average 9 mph or less, the over is 132-95 in the last 227 contests. 

Jerome Bogers' is the main referee here. He has been an over machine because his crew calls a lot of pass interference and holding on the defensive secondary. The over is 76-58 (56.7%) in Bogers' games as referee.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber here, and it would be hard to overstate how amazing he has been since June. In 16 of his last 20 starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less. Kluber is averaging nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings, and only 1.66 walks per nine innings. He should continue his dominance in this one.

Danny Duffy comes off the disabled list here. Duffy is a guy who nibbles on the corners though and home plate umpire Angel Hernandez is one of the better under umpires in baseball. That should be a big help.

Winds blowing in on a moderate temperature day help the under as well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The New Orleans Saints defense has consistently been the worst in the NFL the last couple years, and they are likely to be right down there again this season. Sam Bradford threw for 346 yards and beat this secondary deep multiple times in game one. Obviously, Bradford isn't normally a guy who completes deep passes like that, so that is a major warning sign.

Tom Brady and the Patriots offense will definitely have a better plan of attack for this one than they did last game. New England should utilize Gronkowski a lot in this one since New Orleans has struggled with pass catching tight ends in recent years. It's also a spot for Brandin' Cooks to have a big game against his old team.

The Patriots defense looks like they are in trouble this year to me. They allowed Alex Smith far too long to throw last game, and he picked them apart. Now, Dont'a Hightower, the team's most important player on defense, is out for this game. How are things going to improve against Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome? 

Games played in domes in the first two months of the season where the home team is the underdog have gone over the total 61% of the time in the past ten years in the NFL.

The over is 4-0-1 in the Patriots last 5 following a double digit loss at home. The over is 5-0 in the Pats last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in the Saints last 4 games. The over is 13-0 in the last 13 games in the NFL when one team is coming off a Thursday game and another off a Monday game  when the game is week 11 or earlier in the season. Also, in game two of the season, when a non-division team is a home dog of 3.5 points or more and the total is 40 or higher, the over is 12-0. In all, a 38-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Vanderbilt's defense impressed me in a big way against MTSU in their season opener. The Commodores offense is a bit better than it was in recent seasons, but Kansas State's defense is easily the best unit they have faced yet. 

Both of these teams play at a methodical pace, and I see this one having a lot of running plays where the clock will be moving throughout. 

Kansas State doesn't have any big playmakers on the outside and Vanderbilt is lacking in that area as well. They will rely on the running games a lot, and both front sevens on defense should have the edge.

I waited for a move up on this total during the week, and we finally got it. Time to play this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have played at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. Expect that to continue. Phillip Montgomery is working hard to get this team to be the fastest every single year. Chad President looked much better in this offense last week, and Tulsa has a terrific running game.

Toledo's Logan Woodside is a tremendous passer. Woodside is going to carve up the MAC this year, and I think he'll put up big numbers here too. Tulsa is dead last in yards per game allowed in the country at 618 yards allowed per contest. I'm willing to give them a pass for getting torched by Oklahoma State, but allowing 598 yards against Louisiana Lafayette is a big problem. 

Toledo's tempo is slightly faster than average, and Tulsa is the fastest in the country. This is a high total, but it's high for a good reason. I think there's a good chance this game gets to 80 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers offense has been a big disappointment so far this year. Still, this is an overreaction in the totals market. Western Kentucky still has a veteran quarterback who is one of the top two quarterbacks in the league. They still have a good collection of running backs as well. They should get things figured out.

Louisiana Tech is a team that has a very weak secondary. The Bulldogs allowed 57 points against Mississippi State last week. On the offensive side of the ball, Louisiana Tech should be very good as they have been every year under Skip Holtz.

In the last 3 meetings between these two teams, the final scores have added to 79 points, 107 points, and 102 points. I realize Western Kentucky has a new coaching staff and La Tech a new quarterback, but I'm convinced in Conference USA play these will still be two very good offenses.

I'll look to profit from an overreaction to Western Kentucky's slow start to the season on offense.

The over is 8-0 in LA Tech's last 8 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 September games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 40 points or more in their last game. The over is 5-0 in Western Kentucky's last 5 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two. A 26-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star College Football TOP Total of the WEEK* East Carolina just fired their defensive coordinator. I don't expect it to help, at least not right away. East Carolina plays at a very quick tempo, and their defense ends up being on the field a lot. This defense is very thin and I expect them to give up huge yardage and points on a weekly basis. How bad have they been so far? In two games they are allowing an eye popping 616.5 yards per game. That's second worst in the country. 

Virginia Tech is pushing the tempo even more than they did a year ago. Jackson looks good in this offense. The Hokies put up 54 points by themselves against East Carolina last year, and I think they can get close to 50 again here. 

The pace of this game combined with the fact that one of the defenses is one of the five worst in the country makes this too low of a number. In fact, my number is a full touchdown higher.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* This wasn't necessarily a game I had circled to play on the open, but this line has dropped so low that there is too much value for me to avoid it. 

Air Force has one returning starter on defense from last year. The Falcons are going to be badly overmatched when Michigan's offensive line goes against their defensive line. 

Michigan returns only one starter on defense from last year as well. The Wolverines are good on defense, but they aren't as good as a year ago.

Jim Harbaugh is always willing to run up the score on teams. I think Michigan will be able to put up a lot of points here. Michigan getting to 40 points or more wouldn't surprise me at all. 

Arion Worthman is a great fit for the Air Force option offense, and the Falcons should be able to do enough to get this over this very low total.

The over is 6-0-1 in Michigan's last 7 non-conference games. The over is 5-0-1 in Michigan's last 5 September games. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 following an ATS loss. A 20-1 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Andrew Cashner has allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. Cashner has been particularly good at home. Cashner has an ERA under 3 at home on the year. He has allowed only 8 runs in his last 5 starts. 

Cashner has been much better in the second half of the season. He has lowered his walk rate drastically. He allowed a .316 weighted on base average in the first half of the season. He has allowed only a .269 weighted on base average in the second half of the year.

Felix Hernandez will start here and will be on a pitch count. Hernandez threw it well in Triple A starts. Andrew Albers is expected to be first in relief here, and he has been very solid this year. 

The Rangers are badly beaten up right now. Adrian Beltre is playing badly injured and may or may not be in the lineup. Mike Napoli is out with an injury. Carlos Gomez is doubtful with an injury.

This game means a lot to both teams. I think the total is a little too high.

The under is 6-0 in Cashner's last 6 home starts. The under is 8-3 in Hernandez's last 11 starts vs. the Rangers.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Angel Hernandez is a good under umpire. He always ranks in the top 10 or 12 umpires in the league in percentage of pitches called a strike. He'll help both pitchers in this one.

Tampa Bay has been ice cold of late. The Rays have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 9 games. Jaime Garcia is a middle of the road lefty, and the Rays have been bad against left-handed pitching this season.

Chris Archer is having the best season of his career if you look at his underlying stats. His FIP is 3.36 and xFIP is 3.30. He has pitched well against the Yankees in the recent past, but hasn't gotten any run support.

In the last 25 games of the regular season, teams with a win percentage of 45% or higher that are playing the final game of a series see the total go under at a 55.5% clip (in the last 5 seasons). 

The under is 6-0 in Archer's last 6 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 10-0 combined angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire for this game. Meals is one of the best over umpires in the game. That is a big boost here especially since we have two starting pitchers very capable of getting hit hard, and two bullpens who are exhausted and limping to the finish.

Dylan Covey is in over his head in the majors. The White Sox called him up too soon. Covey has an 8.08 ERA and a 7.94 FIP. He is allowing more than 3 home runs per nine innings. He is walking almost as many guys as he strikes out. 

Sam Gaviglio isn't as bad as Covey, but he isn't good. He doesn't pitch deep into games, and he is prone to allowing big innings too often.

The White Sox have been the worst bullpen in baseball in the last two months. In the past 30 days, the Royals are in the bottom five bullpens in baseball. There should be scoring chances late.

The White Sox have scored 8 runs or more in each of their last three games. Abreu is on fire and Anderson and Moncada are swinging it well also. 

The Royals have potential to score in bunches and they'll get chances here against Covey and a terrible bullpen.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Ariel Miranda has been getting absolutely blown up on the road. Miranda has a 6.16 ERA on the road this year. He has allowed a mind-boggling 23 home runs on the road in only 73 innings pitched. His weighted on base average allowed is .376 away from home. 

The Texas Rangers are very capable of putting up a big number, and Miranda's extremely high walk rate and high home run rate allowed make this a very dangerous spot for him.

Cole Hamels isn't the same guy he was a few years ago. He averages only 5 strikeouts per nine innings. He is a pitch to contact guy now, and his hard contact rate has gone from 28% two years ago to 35.4% this year. 

The Mariners offense is very solid against left handed pitching. The wind is blowing out here on a warm night in Texas.

The over is 8-0 in the Rangers last 8 games following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 during game one of a series. A 20-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bears are going to run the football early and often in this one. Jordan Howard is a good back and I suspect he'll get a good amount of yards in this game. Still, the Bears don't have good red zone options and as the field tightens up in the red zone I think they'll need to settle for field goals. 

The Atlanta Falcons aren't as good offensively outside the dome and the turf. The Bears defense is better than they showed a year ago. Injuries really held this team back last year. 

I believe Kyle Shanahan moving on will hurt Atlanta's offense at least some in the interim. He really helped Matt Ryan and this offense reach lofty heights. There will likely be some interim growing pains.

The Bears offense is extremely limited in the passing game, and I see this as a high posted total all things considered.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Ravens plan to start Joe Flacco here, but Flacco back has been a big problem all offseason. It's hard to expect a lot from him here. The biggest problem for the Ravens is they have no good option as a backup either.

Andy Dalton is a middle of the road NFL quarterback, and he's up against a good Ravens pass rush here. I don't expect the Bengals to be able to move the ball consistently in this one. 

Games between these two teams are very hard hitting and typically defensive. The highest scoring game of the last three meetings was 40 points. 

I don't expect either team to be playing at a particularly fast pace. Look for both defenses to do a good job forcing their opponent to field goals instead of touchdowns.

In week one in the NFL, conference games with a spread of 4 points or less are 66-39 to the under (63%) in the last 105 contests.

The under is 6-0 in the Bengals last 6 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-0 in the Bengals last 4 games overall. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Carolina Gamecocks offense is clearly much better with Jake Bentley at quarterback than it has been in the past couple seasons. They also have an improved offensive line. South Carolina didn't play quick against NC State, but they were definitely playing at a quicker tempo than they did a year ago.

Missouri should rank in the top five in the country in tempo this season. Drew Lock knows Josh Heupel's offense really well now, and he'll put up big numbers. On the other side, Missouri's defense is probably the worst in the SEC. This secondary is going to be torched on a week to week basis. The combination of an extremely fast paced efficient offense and a really bad defense will make for some very high scoring games involving Missouri this year.

This one is a little higher than I was hoping to pay, but I think this could easily be a 45-38 type of game. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Auburn/Clemson TV MONEYMAKER* The Auburn Tigers defense was extremely dominant last weekend. I'm very impressed by this front seven and their ability to get into the backfield.

While Clemson has plenty of talent on offense, there is no doubt they lost a bunch of key contributors from last year's team. I believe this Clemson offense will be good over time, but I think they might struggle against top defenses early in the season.

Clemson's defensive line is the best defensive front in the country. The Auburn offensive line is going to have their hands full in this one. Auburn only has one of their two star running backs available for this game. At quarterback, Jarrett Stidham has tons of potential, but he didn't look comfortable last week against Georgia Southern. This is obviously a much tougher task for Stidham and Auburn offense, and I don't think yards will come easy for them in this one.

I see this being a tight hard fought game between two very good defenses. The under is 4-0 in Auburn's last 4 games after gaining 450 yards or more in their previous game. The under is 3-0-1 in Auburn's last 4 against the ACC. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. An 11-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks are going to play really quickly again this year. I like Herbert quite a bit in this system. He got a lot of time last year as a freshman, and he is going to end up being a very good quarterback. Oregon's collection of running backs is about as good as anyone in the country. 

Nebraska has an upgrade at quarterback in Tanner Lee and they'll run Mike Riley's pro style offense more efficiently than they did with Armstrong at quarterback. The Cornhuskers were torched on defense though by Arkansas State, and the Red Wolves are nothing special offensively. I don't see Nebraska having much success at all slowing down Oregon here. Oregon had 482 yards on Nebraska last year, and this Ducks offense is definitely better this season.

The weather looks for this one with only 5 mph winds and a temperature around 75 degrees.

The over is 47-17-1 in the Ducks last 65 home games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* UL Lafayette allowed 48 points and 514 yards against SE Louisiana last week. In fact, Lafayette was very fortunate to win that game against the FCS opponent. 

What would make anyone think UL Lafayette is going to slow down Tulsa's offense? Yes Tulsa struggled a bit last week against Oklahoma State, but they are stepping way down in class in a home game against a Sun Belt opponent here.

Tulsa's quarterbacks will look a lot better than they did last week, because this ULL secondary is really bad. Tulsa pushes the pace and will rank in the top ten in the country in terms of tempo this year. This feels like one of those games where Tulsa could put up a big number to get things back on track.

UL Lafayette will have a lot of possessions and I do expect them to break through with some scoring in this one. With a very fast tempo, this is a low total.

The over is 20-7 in Tulsa's last 27 home games. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Indiana played at a lightning fast tempo against Ohio State in game one. Their offensive efficiency was clearly hurt by Ohio State's elite defensive line. They won't face another defensive line that talented this year. 

Indiana should rank as one of the top ten fastest offenses in the nation at the end of the year. Richard Lagow looked very comfortable in this offense, and he has some very good receivers at his disposal as well.

Virginia prefers to play fast and Mendenhall and Anae have looked to push the tempo last year and in previous seasons at BYU. Kurt Benkert gives the team a very solid quarterback who should be much better in year two of their system.

It's all about tempo here for me. If you are going to put out a total this low in a game that should have a bunch of extra plays, I have to take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders struggled offensively last week. I don't expect them to struggle on offense very often this year though. MTSU was great on offense under offensive coordinator Tony Franklin last year, and they'll be very good again this year. Brent Stockstill is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in college football, and Richie James is a top five receiver in the country. 

Syracuse is going to push the pace in a big way as long as Dino Babers is their head coach. Syracuse has a great fit for the system at quarterback in Eric Dungey. The offense stumbled a bit last year when Dungey was injured, but when he is healthy Syracuse is capable of putting up huge numbers. 

Though this is a high number, these were both teams that I had highlighted as "over" teams in the right spots this season. The tempo of this game should be extremely quick, meaning both quarterbacks will have a lot of chances to make big plays.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* Boston College is trying to play faster this year. They will get more snaps off than they have the last couple years, but their offense is still really bad. Wake Forest has some major offensive deficiencies too.

These are two head coaches who are great defensive-minded guys, but they don't have good offensive coordinators on their staffs. The last two years the games between these two have combined to be 17-17 (in 2 full games). 

I considered avoiding this one because BC is trying to pick up the pace this year, but when the number was pushed up this high, I had to take the under.

The under is 25-12 in Wake Forest's last 37 conference games. The under is 62-30-2 in BC's last 94 games overall.

Another sloppy low scoring contest should be expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is more about tempo and running clock than anything else. Buffalo beat Army 23-20 in overtime last year. That was a game that saw Army throw the ball 10 times and run the ball 67 times. Army lost their top receiver from a year ago, and I think they'll be extremely run heavy again this year. 

Army always ranks in the bottom 3 or 4 in the country in terms of pace of play. The Black Knights will be running the ball and eating up a bunch of clock with their long drives. If they get stopped on downs or have to kick a field goal at any point that is a big boost to the under. 

Buffalo's defense looked much improved against Minnesota last week. The Bulls have a coach in Leipold who is accustomed to preparing for the triple option and I think that helps them a good amount here. The Bulls rank in the bottom half of the nation in tempo as well.

Too much ticking clock and slow tempo for me to pass on this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* We have two starting pitchers in this one who are very capable of getting blown up at any point. 

Bartolo Colon has a 6.25 ERA and a 5.05 SIERA on the season thus far. Colon has a swinging strike rate of just 5.4%. He is allowing 1.68 homers per nine innings. This Tampa Bay Rays team has a ton of power.

Jake Odorizzi's advanced numbers are even worse than Bartolo Colon's. His FIP is 5.97 and his SIERA is 5.19. Odorizzi is giving up a lot of hard contact and a ton of fly balls this year. He is allowing 2.15 homers per nine innings. He's been at his worst in July and August, where he's combined to have an ERA of 6.34. 

I'm not high on either bullpen, and I think they'll have to be in this game for quite a while after subpar starting pitching. 

The over is 7-0 in Odorizzi's last 7 home starts. The over is 8-0 in his last 8 starts on 5 days of rest. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 24-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total* The Auburn Tigers have a new offensive coordinator. They are going to play much faster this season. Auburn brought in Chip Lindsay to run this offense, and he constantly talks about tempo and changing the way they play. 

Auburn is not only going to play faster, but they have a much better quarterback for their system. Jarrett Stidham should be tremendous in this system. Stidham has all the talent you could ever hope for, and I think he'll make good decisions in this fast paced offense. He'll be helped by a great tailback tandem of Pettway and Johnson. 

The Auburn defense isn't going to be as good as they were last year. I certainly don't expect Georgia Southern to do a bunch of damage here, but they should be able to help out a little.

Last year, Auburn hung 51 points and 706 yards on Arkansas State, their lone Sun Belt opponent. This Georgia Southern team has a worse defense than Arkansas State. The Sun Belt defensive line will be overmatched by Auburn. This Auburn Tigers offense is going to play faster and be even more efficient on offense.

It won't surprise me if Auburn scores 52 by themselves (they should get into the 40's at least), and I see this one as a number that is far too low.

Take the over big.