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Kyle Hunter ALL Sports Totals Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
04-25-11 Chicago White Sox v. New York Yankees OVER 10 2-0 Loss -105 5 h 14 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total KNOCKOUT* The New York Yankees come home to host an ice cold White Sox team. Humber is the starter for Chicago, and though his numbers look decent this year, I'm not convinced it will stay that way. Humber has three starts this year, two against the Rays and one against the Angels. Obviously the Rays and the Angels don't have the lineup that the Yankees have. I think New York will hit him hard in this one. Burnett is on the hill for New York, and in his last two games against the White Sox, Chicago has teed off on him. The over is 6-1 in Burnett's last 7 home games. Take the over here.
04-24-11 New York Yankees v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9.5 6-3 Loss -100 12 h 4 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Freddy Garcia has pitched well so far this year, but I still don't think he can be trusted too much. Jake Arrieta has the potential to be very good in the future, but right now he is definitely hittable. Angel Campos is the home plate umpire in this one, and he is one of the biggest 'over' umpires in the league. The over is 8-3-1 in his last 12 games behind the plate. The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at about 10 miles per hour in this one. The over is 7-3 in the Orioles last 10. The over is 20-9-1 in the Yankees last 30. Take the over in this one.
04-24-11 Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8 0-3 Win 100 11 h 23 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Knockout* I think John Danks is an underrated pitcher. Danks is one of those rare pitchers who actually has a better ERA (3.64) on the road in his career. On the other side, Max Scherzer has been tremendous in Detroit. At home, Scherzer has an ERA of just 2.92 as a Tiger. The under is 9-3 in Scherzer's last 12 home starts. The under is 7-3 in Danks' last 10 starts against Detroit. Detroit's lineup isn't nearly as good without Victor Martinez in the middle of the lineup. I think both pitchers will fare well in this one. Take the under.
04-23-11 Philadelphia Phillies v. San Diego Padres OVER 7 4-2 Loss -102 19 h 20 m Show
*3 Star MLB Top Total* Anytime I see a game that Joe Blanton is pitching in lined at seven runs for the over/under, I'm going to take a long look at the over. I know the Padres are terrible offensively, but Blanton is a much different pitcher than Oswalt or Hamels. The Phillies are very good offensively, and I expect them to get to Tim Stauffer some as well. We've got the best 'over' umpire in the business behind the plate here. The over is 11-5-1 in Jim Reynolds' last 17 behind the dish, and he has a nice track record of overs in past years. The over is 21-6 in Blanton's last 27 starts. Take the over.
04-23-11 Colorado Rockies v. Florida Marlins OVER 8.5 3-1 Loss -120 17 h 8 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jason Hammel has an ERA of above 6 in Florida, and Javier Vazquez has an ERA above 8 this year. The Rockies should be fired up to get back on track offensively after getting one hit by Sanchez on Friday. At the same time, Hammel doesn't have the kind of stuff to shut down the Marlins on the road. This is the type of game where I think both bullpens will be used for quite a while. I expect this one to be a high scoring affair. Take the over in this game.
04-23-11 Dallas Mavericks v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 187 82-84 Win 100 4 h 45 m Show
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Dallas Mavericks played a solid game in Game Three, but the Portland fans carried the Blazers to a victory. Expect another great atmosphere in Game Four on Saturday. In Game Two and Game Three the total finished at 190 and 189, but both teams have been shooting a higher percentage from the floor than they did for the year. I expect both teams to show up with a stronger defensive effort. Also, last game there were 53 free throws, and I think there will probably be less today. Portland is a good defensive team, and Andre Miller is good at keeping the tempo slow. The Blazers know they must win this game to have a real shot in the series, and I expect their best defensive effort of the series. Take the under.
04-22-11 Boston Red Sox v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7 4-3 Push 0 21 h 31 m Show
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Jon Lester vs. Dan Haren is a terrific pitching matchup. I think both pitchers will pitch extremely well on Friday night. Lester has shut down the Angels in the past. Vernon Wells is just 5 for 28 against Lester, and Bobby Abreu is just 4 for 17. Dan Haren has consistently been one of the best pitchers in the league before the All-Star break. Haren rarely gets run support from the Angels, but he generally eats up innings and shuts down the opposition. How about some impressive 100% winning angles here? The under is 5-0 in Lester's last 5 starts against the Angels. The under is 7-0 in Haren's last 7 games with a total set between 7 and 8.5. Overall, the under is 13-2-2 in Haren's last 17 outings. I like the under in this one.
04-22-11 Orlando Magic v. Atlanta Hawks OVER 180 84-88 Loss -101 6 h 15 m Show
*3 Star TGIF NBA Total Takedown* The Magic and Hawks finished at 170 points in Game Two, which dropped the total by 3.5 points on this line. At 180, I like the value on the over. Dwight Howard is going to get fouled a lot, and take a lot of free throws in this one. The Magic won Game Two despite shooting 5 for 23 from beyond the arc. Orlando is one of the better three-point shooting teams in the league, and I think they'll knock down more threes tonight. The Hawks should be playing inpsired basketball in front of their home crowd in this one. Though the total only reached 170 last time, the teams shot 34% and 39% from the floor. An average shooting night should put this game over the posted total quite easily. These are two teams I usually play the 'under' on, but at just 180 I think the value goes to the over. Take the over in this one!
04-22-11 Arizona Diamondbacks v. New York Mets OVER 8.5 1-4 Loss -104 18 h 13 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Mike Pelfrey has gotten off to a very rocky start this year. I don't think it will help him to pitch against the Diamondbacks. Pelfrey has an ERA of 7.09 in his career against Arizona. Last year in Pelfrey's two starts against Arizona, the Mets lost 9-6 and 13-2. Joe Saunders is the type of pitcher who pitches to contact, and I think this Mets lineup can get to him. With Wright, Beltran, and now Bay in the middle of the lineup, the Mets should improve offensively. Both teams have a bad bullpen, so if it gets to the pen early that is a great sign for the over. I like the over in this one.
04-21-11 Minnesota Twins v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 3-1 Win 111 17 h 5 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Minnesota Twins offense has been terrible this year. Minnesota has yet to put up more than 5 runs in a single game all year. It looks as if they'll be without Morneau and Young again on Thursday and Mauer is still on the DL. Jeremy Guthrie is a solid pitcher, especially at home. Scott Baker has been great against the Orioles in his career. Baker is 5-0 with an ERA under 3 against Baltimore. The under is 10-3 in the Twins last 13 games. The under is 7-3 in Guthrie's last 10 home starts. I expect a good performance from both pitchers here. Take the under.
04-21-11 Chicago Bulls v. Indiana Pacers OVER 189 88-84 Loss -110 5 h 24 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Bulls have had a rough time in the first couple games against the Pacers, but they did end up winning both games. Now the Pacers go home and they should have a great home crowd advantage here. Indiana is at their best when they are pushing the tempo, and I think they will do that even more at home. Derrick Rose is a matchup nightmare for the Pacers, as he has proven all year. Rose has 55 free throw attempts in the last three games against Indiana. I expect Rose to keep getting to the basket and getting to the line. Last game the total stayed under, and finished at 186. The two teams both shot about 40% in that game, and I would expect those numbers to be higher tonight. I think the value is on the over in this one.
04-20-11 Atlanta Braves v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 7 1-6 Push 0 21 h 19 m Show
*3 Star Late Night BAILOUT* It's no secret that Dodger Stadium isn't exactly a hitter's park, especially at night. Derek Lowe is a solid sinker ball pitcher, and he should keep the ball in the park against an ordinary Dodgers lineup. Jon Garland was poor in his first start this year, but I think he should have a pretty good year in a pitcher's ballpark like Dodger Stadium. John Hirschbeck is the umpire behind the dish in this one, and he is one of the best 'under' umpires in the game today. The under 18-7-1 in Lowe's last 26 starts. Take the under here.
04-20-11 Denver Nuggets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 207 89-106 Win 100 18 h 38 m Show
*3 Star NBA Bookie SMASHER* The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder both have plenty of offensive firepower, but a big reason both teams have improved at the end of the season has been their defense. Kendrick Perkins has made the Thunder defense much better, and the Nuggets have improved defensively since Carmelo was traded. In Game One the total finished at 210, but that was with both teams shooting 50% and a total of 61 free throws. I expect fewer trips to the line and a little lower shooting numbers here. Go against the public and take the under.
04-20-11 Houston Astros v. New York Mets OVER 7.5 4-3 Loss -110 17 h 56 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* R.A. Dickey hasn't been pitching very well so far this year. Knuckleballers tend to run in streaks, and I think he is having trouble locating his pitches right now. On the other side, Bud Norris has been terrible on the road over his career. Norris has an ERA of 5.42 on the road in his career. Norris also usually doesn't get very deep into the game and this Astros bullpen is bad. The Mets bullpen is equally bad. If the bullpens are in this game much at all, I like the chances for the over here. Take the over.
04-19-11 Minnesota Twins v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 0-11 Loss -115 6 h 25 m Show
*3 Star Totals Takedown* Neither of these team's is hitting the baseball well at all right now, and I think the value is on the under in this game once again. The under is 16-5 in the Twins last 21 games. The under is 7-3 in the Orioles last 10 home games. Carl Pavano has been solid in his last couple outings, and Jake Arrieta is a solid young pitcher. Justin Morneau is questionable for this game with the flu, and Mauer is still out of the lineup. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 15 mph, which should help. Take the under here.
04-19-11 New York Knicks v. Boston Celtics OVER 192.5 93-96 Loss -110 6 h 20 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The fact that Game One was such a low scoring game has made the books adjust this total lower by 4.5 points. I think this adjustment gives us a solid value on the over. Chauncey Billups is likely out tonight, but that might actually help the over. The Knicks will probably push the tempo more without Billups in the lineup. Carmelo Anthony is unlikely to go 5/18 again, and I think we'll see far more free throw attempts than we did in the first game. Three of the four regular season meetings went over 200, and I think getting the over at just 192.5 is a great value. Take the over.
04-19-11 Chicago White Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 1-2 Win 100 6 h 0 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays don't have a good lineup at all this year, and their key hitter, Johnny Damon, is out right now. John Danks is a pretty good pitcher, and I don't expect the Rays to be able to put up many runs against Danks. James Shields is on the hill for the Rays, and he is a much better pitcher at home. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 4-0-1 in Danks' last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in Vic Carapazza's last 4 games as the umpire as well, so that doesn't hurt. Take the under.
04-18-11 Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls OVER 191 90-96 Loss -115 20 h 54 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Bulls fell behind early in Game One, but they pulled it out thanks to a great effort from Derrick Rose. Chicago also has a big advantage on the boards in this matchup. The Pacers like to push the tempo, and the Bulls seem to be ok with that. The Pacers have made it clear they are looking to knock down Rose at every opportunity, but he has been knocking down free throws and making them pay. Rose has 21 free throw attempts in both of the last two games (42 total) against the Pacers. I think we'll see plenty of free throws again Monday. I like the over.
04-18-11 Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9 7-3 Win 100 19 h 28 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Indians and the Kansas City Royals will actually be battling for first place in the AL Central in this series. Both teams are certainly exceeding expectations by a huge margin. I expect both to come down to earth over the season, but they do seem to be improving. Kyle Davies is one of my favorite pitchers to fade, but Carlos Carrasco hasn't been good on the road either. I think this total is too low. Davies has an ERA of 5.80 against Cleveland in his career, and his ERA at home as a Royal is 5.87. Carrasco and Davies squared off last year and the final was 11-4. While I'm not sure the total will reach 15 this time, I do think the over is the play here.
04-18-11 Minnesota Twins v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 9 5-3 Win 100 18 h 36 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* Francisco Lirano actually pitched well most of the game in his last outing. He had one bad inning where the Royals strung together a bunch of bloop hits, but overall he looked better. The Orioles aren't hitting well right now, but they are definitely playing some very good defense. Justin Morneau missed Sunday's game with the flu, and he may well miss Monday's game as well. The Twins lineup is already without Joe Mauer. The under is 14-3 in the Twins last 17 games overall. The under is 34-16-1 in the Orioles last 51 against a left-handed pitcher. Take the under in this one.
04-17-11 San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 10 5-6 Win 100 16 h 31 m Show
*3 Star Over Play of the Day* Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open, especially when the weather is hot with low humidity. The roof is expected to be open tomorrow with 90 degree heat and almost no humidity. Expect the ball to travel extremely well in this game. Bumgarner is struggling badly with his control this year and he can give up the long ball. Enright has struggled at home, especially with the roof open. While Saturday's game stayed under the total, I think this game will be a very high scoring game. Take the over.
04-17-11 Seattle Mariners v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 3-2 Win 100 14 h 9 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Seattle Mariners are a terrible hitting team. Other than Ichiro, they really don't have anyone on their team who scares the opposition much at all. Kansas City isn't better than average at the plate, and Michael Pineda has shown to be a very good young pitcher for the Mariners. Pineda should have the upper hand facing the Mariners for the first time. Jeff Francis has his command working very well so far this year, and the Royals may have gotten a good value when they picked him up. The under is 35-17-5 in Brian Runge's last 47 games behind the plate, and he is the umpire in this one. Take the under.
04-17-11 Minnesota Twins v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 4-2 Win 100 13 h 39 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Twins lineup simply isn't the same without Mauer in the middle of it. Jeremy Hellickson is a very good young pitcher for the Rays. Hellickson has an ERA of just 3.00 at home in his young career. Brian Duensing is a decent pitcher, and we all know the Rays offense has been terrible this year without Longoria. The under is 22-4 in the Rays last 26 games overall. Both teams are missing their best hitter, and I think this is the type of game where both starter's take control early. Take the under here.
04-17-11 Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 8.5 1-8 Loss -100 13 h 18 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals Early Bird* Doug Eddings is behind the dish in this one, and there isn't a better umpire to have behind the plate if you want an 'under'. The Red Sox are still struggling to hit the ball well, and Eddings will have a wide strike zone. The under is 15-5-1 in Eddings last 21 games behind the plate. Jon Lester is pitching the Sox, and he has looked much better in his last couple outings. Lester is great at home, and the under is 4-1 in his last 5 starts against Toronto. I expect this one to stay under the total.
04-16-11 San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 10 5-3 Loss -113 20 h 34 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field becomes a hitter's paradise with the roof open. The Chase Field website says the roof is expected to be open in this one. We have two pitchers who are extremely capable of getting hit around in this matchup as well. Barry Zito is struggling in a big way with his control right now, and I think he'll get punished by this DBack offense if that continues on Saturday. Joe Saunders was lit up by the Cincinnati Reds in his last start with the roof open at home, and I think that is likely again here. The over is 4-1-1 in Zito's last 6 starts against Arizona. I expect a high scoring affair here. Take the over.
04-16-11 Atlanta Hawks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 180 103-93 Loss -110 23 h 55 m Show
*3 Star NBA Playoff Total Domination* The Atlanta Hawks and the Orlando Magic are very familiar with each other. They met in first round of the playoffs last year, when the Magic swept away the Hawks in four straight games. Then this year they met four times in the regular season, with the Hawks winning three of the four games. Both teams have improved defensively from a year ago. The Hawks have decided to slow down the game quite a bit this year. Atlanta's inefficiency on offense has been their undoing in their losses this year. The Hawks are averaging just 95 points per game. The trends here strongly support a play on the under. The under is 20-6 in Orlando's last 26 home games. The under is 11-4 in Atlanta's last 15 road games. The under is also 6-0 in their last six meetings against each other. I like the under in this game.
04-16-11 Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox OVER 9 1-4 Loss -113 13 h 35 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox are slumping in a big way right now, but JoJo Reyes is the type of pitcher that they should be able to hit. Reyes is a youngster who doesn't have any overpowering pitch to put away hitters. Josh Beckett has pitched well so far this year, but the Jays have been a thorn in his side in the past. Beckett's ERA against the Jays in his career is 7.03. This is a day game and Reyes has a terribly 7.07 ERA in his day starts. These Boston bats are too good to stay silenced forever, and I think they'll bust out here. At the same time, the Jays should score quite a few as well. I like the over.
04-15-11 Baltimore Orioles v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 2-8 Loss -113 17 h 28 m Show
*3 Star TGIF Bookie SMASHER* Zach Britton is the top pitching prospect in the Orioles organization, and he is one of the best in the majors. In his first two starts in the major leagues he has given up a total of just one run. He shut down the mighty Texas Rangers lineup in his last start. Justin Masterson has been very good at home over the years. His ERA at home is 3.83 in his career. The Indians don't have a very good lineup, but they are playing great defense. The Orioles defense has been tremendous this year. The under is 13-5 in the Orioles last 18 games overall. The under is 6-1 in Masterson's last 7 starts overall. The under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these two. I like this one to stay under the posted total.
04-14-11 Baltimore Orioles v. New York Yankees OVER 10 5-6 Win 100 19 h 33 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Phil Hughes has not been good at all this year. Hughes hasn't been able to put anyone away. In fact, Hughes has just one strikeout through two starts. This Baltimore lineup has struggled a bit so far this year, but they have a ton of talent and I think they could bust out at any point. On the other side, Arrieta is a pretty decent young pitcher, but I don't expect him to shut down this very good Yankees lineup. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph. Phil Hughes has trouble with the long ball, and he hasn't fared well at Yankee Stadium. The over is 14-5 in his last 19 starts at home. The over is also 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts against Baltimore. Take the over.
04-13-11 St.Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 15-5 Win 100 21 h 1 m Show
*3 Star Late Night BAILOUT* Chase Field once again showed how friendly it is to hitters when the roof is open last night. The DBacks won 13-8 in a game with Chris Carpenter as the starter for the Cardinals. I've cashed in twice with the over in this series, and I'm going to try for a sweep here. The dry heat causes the ball to carry in the desert air and it is a huge boost to the over. Jake Westbrook hasn't pitched well on the road. The over is 4-1 in his lats 5 road starts. The over is 5-2-1 in Kennedy's last 8 home starts. Take the over.
04-13-11 Chicago Cubs v. Houston Astros UNDER 7.5 9-5 Loss -115 20 h 35 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Wandy Rodriguez is absolutely terrific at home, and Carlos Zambrano is a much better pitcher on the road. The umpire in this one, Paul Emmel, has a wide strike zone, and typically calls quite a few 'under' games. The trends in this one are extremely impressive. The under is 6-0 in Rodriguez's last 6 home starts against the Cubs. The under is 12-2 in Zambrano's last 14 road starts against the Astros. The under is 32-14-2 in the last 48 meetings between these two teams in Houston. I expect a pitcher's duel in this one. Take the under.
04-13-11 Denver Nuggets v. Utah Jazz OVER 207 103-107 Win 100 8 h 44 m Show
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* This is a game that means very little to either team. What does a meaningless game in the NBA usually mean? I think it means very little defense and a lot of points. Denver has been piling up the points in their last couple games. They scored 130 against Minnesota and 134 against Golden State. The Jazz defense won't scare anyone. I think the pace to this game will be quick. The referee crew here is a nice crew for the over, especially Pat Fraher (41 games over 26 games under this year). Look for a high scoring affair in this regular season finale.
04-13-11 Oakland A's v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 7.5 7-4 Loss -100 12 h 4 m Show
*3 Star Early Bird Total* I unsuccessfully played the under in this matchup last night, but I think Thursday afternoon's game is likely to be lower scoring. Both teams have struggled against left-handers, and both pitchers in this game are high quality left-handed starters. The Athletics are hitting less than .200 against lefties this year, and the White Sox are only scoring 3 runs per game against lefties. The under is 4-1 in Danks' last 5 starts against Oakland. The under is 9-4 in Anderson's last 13 road starts. The under is 25-10-1 in these two teams last 36 meetings in Chicago. Take the under.
04-12-11 Cleveland Indians v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7 0-2 Win 104 21 h 36 m Show
*3 Star MLB Late Night Bailout* The Los Angeles Angels have a very poor offense this year. Fausto Carmona has fared extremely well in the past against the Angels. Torii Hunter is just 5 for 28 in his career against Carmona. Dan Haren has been one of the best first-half starters in the league for the last few years. The Angels have made it a habit to not give Haren much run support at all. The under is 8-0-1 in Haren's last 9 starts overall. The under is 24-9 in the last 33 meetings between these two. Barrett is the umpire in this one, and he leans slightly toward the under. I like the under in this game.
04-12-11 St. Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 8-13 Win 100 5 h 56 m Show
*3 Star Weather Factors Over Play* Chase Field is a whole different ballpark when the roof is open. On a warm day with low humidity the ball travels extremely well in the desert. Last night it was a little cooler than it will be tonight, and there were three home runs last night. Don't be surprised if there are three or more home runs in this one. Chris Carpenter is a very good pitcher, but he has the tendency to get frustrated easily, and I could see these young DBacks getting to him a bit. On the other side, Galarraga makes his first home start, and I don't think he will be well-suited to this park. He was in a pitcher's park in Detroit the last few years, and he will find this ballpark a whole different story. I like the over in this one.
04-12-11 Oakland A's v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 5-6 Loss -110 19 h 42 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Trevor Cahill is one of the better pitchers in the American League. Cahill has great command and he is a bulldog on the mound. Edwin Jackson is a streaky pitcher, and he has started the season red hot. Neither of these teams has a terrific lineup. The under is 5-0 in Oakland's last 5 games overall. The under is 4-1 in Cahill's last 5 starts against the White Sox. The under is also 33-16-2 in the last 51 meetings between these teams. I expect a game with some very good starting pitching here. Take the under.
04-11-11 Cincinnati Reds v. San Diego Padres OVER 6.5 3-2 Loss -115 21 h 24 m Show
*3 Star Late Night Bailout* The Cincinnati Reds have one of the better offenses in all of baseball. With Phillips, Votto, Rolen, Gomes, and Bruce they have plenty of guys in the middle of the order who can make you pay with one swing of the bat. Mat Latos has been injured and will make his first start in this one. Latos is very good, but he could be a little rusty in his first start back. Edinson Volquez is on the hill for Cincinnati, and he has been very erratic this year. Volquez often struggles to find the strike zone. Petco is definitely a pitcher's park, but with two starting pitcher's who have significant question marks in this one I am taking the over.
04-11-11 Oklahoma City Thunder v. Sacramento Kings OVER 208 120-112 Win 100 9 h 5 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Oklahoma City Thunder put on an offensive clinic on Sunday night in Los Angeles. The Thunder have a fighter's chance at taking either the #2 or #3 seed in the Western Conference, but they need to win both of their last two games. The Kings have been playing hard of late, but they don't play much defense. Sacramento is allowing 105.2 points per game in their last five. Oklahoma City is averaging 105.8 points per game in their last five. The Thunder put up 126 points againts the Kings in their last meeting. I think this game will be closer, but the pace will be quick. Both teams shoot it very well from the free throw line, which should help the 'over' quite a bit. The over is 12-5-1 in their last 18 meetings in Sacramento. Take the over.
04-11-11 St. Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 8-2 Win 100 20 h 20 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field becomes a hitter's dream when the roof is open. The low humidity helps the ball carry extremely well. One would think the roof will be on Monday night with a forecast of 75 degrees and sunny. Kyle McClellan and Barry Enright are both inconsistent pitchers, and I think they will get hit around pretty good in this one. It is quite normal for games to finish 10-8 like the DBacks game against the Reds did on Sunday when the roof is open. The Cardinals hitters have struggled this year, but with Matt Holiday back in the lineup they should improve quite a bit. Take the over.
04-10-11 Atlanta Hawks v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 192 120-106 Loss -110 6 h 44 m Show
*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Oklahoma City Thunder aren't far from catching the Lakers for the #2 seed in the Western Conference, and you can bet they would love to steal that spot. The biggest change in this Oklahoma City team since they acquired Kendrick Perkins is their ability to play much better defense. The Lakers have been horrible offensive of late. In fact, the Lakers are averaging just 88.8 points per game in their last five contests. At the same time, the Lakers defense is much improved this year. The defensive intensity of the Lakers has been on display for much of the season. The under is 46-22 in the Lakers last 68 games overall. The under is 6-1 in the Thunder's last 7 road games. The under is 38-11-2 in the Lakers last 51 Sunday games. I like the under in what should be a hotly contested game.
04-10-11 Oakland A's v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8.5 5-3 Win 100 13 h 8 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Oakland A's have a poor offense that struggles to manufacture runs. They also lack a real power hitter. Minnesota can score some runs at times, but Brandon McCarthy has the stuff to shut them down. A big reason I like this play so much is the home plate umpire in this one. Bill Miller is behind the dish here and he has been an under machine in the last couple years. The under is 54-24-6 in his last 84 games behind home plate. Both pitchers should be getting the corners in this one. I expect this one to stay under the posted total.
04-10-11 Washington Nationals v. New York Mets UNDER 8 7-3 Loss -109 12 h 8 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Washington Nationals don't have a lineup that will be able to put up a ton of runs all that often. New York is a decent offense, but I think Jason Marquis has a solid chance to shut them down. Marquis is a very streaky pitcher, and he looked good in Spring Training and in his first start. He is keeping the ball down and getting a lot of ground balls. Brian Gorman is the umpire in this one and he generally has a pretty large strike zone. Chris Young has pretty good stuff and I think he could do well in New York this year. I like the under in this one.
04-09-11 Utah Jazz v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 198.5 102-111 Win 100 7 h 0 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs are just about to clinch the first seed in the Western Conference. The Spurs are playing with much less pressure than any of the other teams in the West right now, which I think means they'll have some high scoring games to end the season. We should see the Spurs keep the pace moving pretty quickly and not work too hard on the defensive end. Utah hasn't been putting up many points of late, but with a healthy Devin Harris back in the lineup they should improve offensively. The Utah defense has been very poor of late and I think the Spurs will get plenty of open looks in this game. The over is 22-8 in the Spurs last 30 games. The over is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in San Antonio between these two. Take the over.
04-09-11 Atlanta Hawks v. Washington Wizards OVER 201 83-115 Loss -110 5 h 12 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Washington Wizards have been running and gunning with the best of them of late. John Wall is leading the fastbreak and Andray Blatche is now healthy on the inside. The Wizards have plenty of guys who can score, but they don't play much defense at all. The Hawks have been a defensive oriented team all year, but right now they seem to be slacking off defensively. The team appears to be resting a bit heading into the playoffs. I tend to think that these type of games that don't really matter to either team will end up higher scoring than average. Josh Smith is out in this game, and that might mean the Hawks will play faster on offense and they'll have one less solid defender in the back of their defense. I like the over here.
04-09-11 Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers OVER 9.5 3-1 Loss -100 14 h 57 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* I bet on the 'over' yesterday when these two met and lost despite a four run first inning from the Tigers. Both teams left the bases loaded and there were several base running blunders that prevented a score from occurring. I think the over will cash on Saturday. Phil Coke is starting for Detroit, and I'm really not sure he is a starter. Kansas City isn't a very good offense, but I don't think Coke will be able to shut them down. Bruce Chen starts for the Royals, and in his last four starts against Detroit the final total has been 10, 15, 10, and 15 runs. Obviously, he hasn't fared well against the Tigers. I expect both starters to have a short day. Take the over.
04-09-11 New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox OVER 10 9-4 Win 100 11 h 22 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Yankees have hit Clay Buchholz well in their past meetings. Buchholz has an ERA of over 5.50 against the Yankees. Ivan Nova has pitched against Boston in Fenway just once, but he didn't last long at all in that outing (2 and 1/3 innings). These two have arguably the top two offenses in the major leagues, so when the Yanks and Red Sox get together there should be a bunch of runs this year. We saw that come to fruition in Friday's game where the Red Sox won 9-6. The over is 8-3 in the Red Sox last 11. The over is 18-7-1 in the Yankees last 26. The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these teams. Take the over.
04-08-11 Los Angeles Lakers v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 185 86-93 Win 100 9 h 6 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Los Angeles Lakers have lost three games in a row, and I expect them to play better tonight. Portland is a tough team to beat at home, and Portland slows the tempo down nicely. The single biggest strength of the Lakers this year has been their intensity on the defensive end. The under is 45-22 in the Lakers last 67 games. The last two times these teams have met it has been a low scoring affair. In February, the game went into overtime, but in regulation it was just 87-87. In March, the final was 84-80. I think both teams will bring a solid defensive effort tonight. I like the under in this one.
04-08-11 Tampa Bay Rays v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 8 9-7 Loss -125 19 h 59 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* The Tampa Bay Rays simply cannot score right now. It really is amazing, but the Rays have only scored one run in five of their six games this year. John Danks has a good history against the Rays, and this is not nearly as good of a Tampa Bay lineup. James Shields is on the hill for the Rays, and I expect a solid campaign from him this year. He pitched twice against the White Sox last year, and gave up just two runs in both outings. The under is 22-6-1 in the Rays lats 29 games. The under is 6-2 in Danks' last 8 starts against the Rays. The under is 24-11 in the last 35 meetings between these two.
04-08-11 Florida Marlins v. Houston Astros UNDER 8 4-3 Win 100 21 h 42 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Florida Marlins don't have a very good lineup, and the Houston Astros lineup is even worse. Ricky Nolasco and Wandy Rodriguez will be pitching in this one, and both of them are solid pitchers. Rodriguez is often dominating at home, and I think he'll fare very well in this one. Nolasco has actually had better numbers on the road than home in the last year or so. The under is 6-0 in the Marlins last six road games. The under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two in Houston. I think eight is a generous number when we have two poor offenses against two very good pitchers. Take the under here.
04-08-11 Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers OVER 9 2-5 Loss -107 14 h 5 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Max Scherzer has struggled mightily this year, starting with Spring Training. It seems he hasn't been able to locate his pitches at all. Kyle Davies is a very inconsistent pitcher, and the Tigers have a nice history of hitting him well. Martinez, Peralta, and Ordonez are all hitting over .300 against Davies in their careers. These two teams have a nice history of playing high scoring against one another. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit. I think both pitchers are fully capable of imploding, and it wouldn't surprise me to see a very high scoring game. Take the over.
04-07-11 Washington Nationals v. Florida Marlins UNDER 7.5 5-3 Loss -115 18 h 52 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I think this game sets up nicely to be a low scoring affair. Josh Johnson is a terrific pitcher, and he has been brilliant at home over the last couple years. The under is 9-2-1 in his last 12 home starts. The under has been a good play with John Lannan pitching on the road as well. The under is 17-8-1 in Lannan's last 26 starts as a road underdog. The umpire in this game has a solid lean to the under with a pretty large strike zone. Both pitchers should be able to pound the zone here. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 12 mph, which should help fly balls stay in the park. Take the under in this one.
04-07-11 Houston Astros v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8.5 3-2 Loss -100 11 h 24 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cincinnati Reds are 5-0 to start the season. The Astros are 0-5. Cincinnati is hitting the ball very well right now, and the Astros are having a terrible time with errors. Houston committed five errors on Wednesday night. The over is 6-0 in Houston's last 6 road games. The over is 4-1 in the Reds five games this year. Jim Reynolds is the umpire in this game, and the over is 65-32-4 in his last 101 games behind the plate. Don't expect either pitcher to get a ton of help in this one. I like the over.
04-06-11 Los Angeles Clippers v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 203.5 108-112 Loss -110 20 h 4 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Oklahoma City Thunder are a team I've had my eyes on over the last few games. Kendrick Perkins is getting healthy and he is changing the way they play of late. Perkins gives this team a great defensive presence in the paint. It seems he also slows the team down just a tad since he doesn't run the floor too well. The under is 11-3 in the Thunder's last 14 games overall. These two met just last week and the final was 98-92, but now we are getting a much higher line. I think this line is set too high, and I like this one to finish well under the posted total.
04-06-11 New Jersey Nets v. Detroit Pistons OVER 199 109-116 Win 100 18 h 48 m Show
*3 Star NBA Totals Takedown* The Detroit Pistons have been a terrific 'over' play all year on their home court. The over is 26-12 in their 38 home games this year. Detroit picks up the pace at home, and the Nets are playing at a much quicker pace since Deron Williams has come over in the trade from Utah. The over is 4-0 in the Nets last four games. The over is 4-0 in the Pistons last 4 games. The over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. I think the pace will be there and I like the over to cash in this one.
04-06-11 Detroit Tigers v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8.5 7-3 Loss -110 18 h 38 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Justin Verlander has a history of shutting down the Baltimore Orioles. Brad Bergesen showed some marked improvement over the last few months last year, and he has a solid sinker. The Orioles are playing extremely good defense right now. The under is 4-0 in the Orioles four games this year. The under is 4-1 in Bergesen's last five starts. The under is 5-2 in Verlander's last 7 starts against the Orioles. The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams. All the trends point to the under, and I think this one will stay under the posted total.
04-06-11 Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers OVER 205.5 112-136 Win 100 17 h 22 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Washington Wizards are on a three-game winning streak for the first time this year. John Wall and Andray Blatche are both playing very well for Washington. Indiana is still fighting for playoff positioning, and I expect them to give a solid effort here. These two played several weeks ago and the final total was 209. There were a bunch of free throws taken in that one, but the shooting percentages were very low. I think the teams will shoot better here, and I think the pace will be quick. Take the over.
04-06-11 Los Angeles Angels v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 5-1 Win 100 12 h 44 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays just don't have a very good lineup right now. Longoria is out and this team doesn't really have many guys that can get on base consistently. Dan Haren is pithcing for the Angels, and he has been a great first half pitcher for the last few years. Haren has the ability to shut teams down, and I think he could do that Wednesday to the Rays. Jeremy Hellickson is a very good young pitcher for Tampa Bay, and I think he'll continue his trend from last year of dominating the opposition at home. I think this one will be a low scoring affair. Take the under.
04-05-11 Milwaukee Bucks v. Orlando Magic UNDER 181 72-78 Win 100 17 h 54 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Milwaukee Bucks know how to keep a game very low scoring. The Bucks play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA, and they aren't good offensively either. Orlando has been struggling to find their offense of late, and the Magic are in the top five in the NBA in defense. The last time these two met I was on the losing side when picking the under, but only because the game went into overtime. I think we are getting a great value once again on the under. The under is 21-9 in the Bucks last 30 games. The under is 19-8 in Orlando's last 27 games overall. I think this one stays safely under the posted total.
04-05-11 Charlotte Bobcats v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 190.5 89-99 Win 100 6 h 23 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total TKO* The Charlotte Bobcats and the Cleveland Cavaliers met last week and I played the under. I lost that play, but it only lost because both teams shot the ball extremely well. The Bobcats shot 56% from the floor and the Cavs shot 52% from the floor. Even with that great shooting performance, the total only finished 4.5 points higher than this number. The Cavs have been playing better defense at home of late, as evidenced by the 'under' going 8-1 in their last 9 home games. The under is also 16-5 in Charlotte's last 21 road games. I like the under in a big way here.
04-05-11 Los Angeles Angels v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 5-3 Loss -100 17 h 7 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Angels and the Rays used to have a couple of the best offenses in the league, but now both teams are short on hitting talent. Tampa Bay scored just one run in each of their three games against Baltimore in the first series of the year. The Angels are without Kendry Morales, one of their best hitters. Jeff Niemann is on the hill for Tampa Bay, and he has shut down most of the Angels hitters in the past. Vernon Wells is just 2 for 21 in his career against Niemann. Abreu is just 2 for 13. In the same manner, Jered Weaver has been great against the Rays. The under is 4-1 in Weaver's last 5 against the Rays. The under is 35-15-2 in the Rays last 52 home games. The under is 28-10-5 in Weaver's last 43 starts overall. Take the under.
04-04-11 Detroit Tigers v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9.5 1-5 Loss -110 14 h 4 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Tigers have a very good lineup this year. Martinez and Cabrera in the middle of the order should help this team put up a lot of runs. Baltimore has started 3-0, and this Orioles team is very good offensively. There really isn't a weak spot in the Baltimore lineup. Porcello and Arrieta are both young pitchers who have been inconsistent in the majors. The weather is a major reason I am playing this game. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15-25 mph during the game. Both of these pitchers (especially Porcello) have been prone to giving up the long ball. The over is 6-2 in Porcello's last 8 starts. The over is 5-1-2 in Arrieta's last 8 starts. Take the over in this one.
04-04-11 Atlanta Braves v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8.5 2-1 Loss -115 13 h 21 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Atlanta Braves will send Brandon Beachy to the mound on Monday afternoon. Beachy is a solid young prospect, but I think he'll have a tough time shutting down this Brewers team that will be hungry for a win after getting swept by Cincinnati. Chris Narveson is on the hill for the Brewers, and I like to play the 'over' when he pitches. He had an ERA of 4.99 last year. The over is 6-2 in his last 8 home starts. The over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Take the over.
04-03-11 Indiana Pacers v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 189.5 96-108 Loss -110 17 h 32 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The New Orleans have been a great 'under' team all year. The under is 49-27 in the Hornets games this season. The Pacers haven't been bad to under bettors either, as the under has gone 43-34 in their games. Indiana has sped up a bit at times lately, but I expect the Hornets to control the tempo here. I think this is a game that stays in the halfcourt and I wouldn't be surprised to see it stay at about 180. Take the under.
04-03-11 Atlanta Hawks v. Houston Rockets OVER 200 109-114 Win 100 16 h 26 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Houston Rockets have a way of making their opposition play their style of basketball. Houston is getting up and down the court more than anyone in the league right now. Atlanta typically slows the game down quite a bit, but they ran with Houston in their last meeting in January. Only 21 free throws were attempted in that game and the total still got up to 218 points. The over is 9-4 in Houston's last 13 home games. Take the over in this game.
04-03-11 Minnesota Twins v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9 4-3 Loss -110 10 h 23 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* This will be the third straight day I've played the Twins/Jays over. The first day it worked, while Saturday it didn't because the Twins offense was non-existent. The Twins lineup is actually pretty good, and I think they are bound to breakout at some point. Brett Cecil is an inconsistent starter for Toronto, and Nick Blackburn has been roughed up quite a few times in the last couple years. Paul Schrieber is the umpire behind the dish here, and he is one of the bigger 'over' umpires in the league. Take the over in this game.
04-02-11 Virginia Commonwealth v. Butler UNDER 134 62-70 Win 100 26 h 55 m Show
*3 Star Final Four Total DOMINATION* The Butler Bulldogs are back in the Final Four for a second straight year. Brad Stevens has proven to be one of the the best game day coaches in all of basketball. I fully expect Stevens to have Butler ready to play after a week of preparation. VCU is the darling of the tournament, and they are a tough team. VCU has been draining three's in this tournament, but I'm not sure they'll get open looks against Butler's solid defense. The Bulldogs have been slowing the game down quite a bit in the tournament, and I think they'll do the same in this one. The under is 3-2 in VCU's 5 tournament games (one over was because of overtime) and the under is 3-2 in Butler's 5 tournament games (one over was because of overtime). I think the solid play here is on the under.
04-02-11 Detroit Tigers v. New York Yankees OVER 9.5 6-10 Win 104 14 h 16 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Yankees are going to score a lot of runs this year, but the pitching staff is nothing special. Burnett has been hot and cold for the last couple years, and this Tigers lineup is pretty decent now with Martinez and Cabrera in the middle. The conditions set up well for a play on the over. The wind is expected to be blowing straight out at 15 mph or so. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Look for a high scoring affair here. Take the over.
04-02-11 Minnesota Twins v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8.5 1-6 Loss -100 11 h 7 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins lineup is much stronger with Justin Morneau in the middle of the order. Toronto has a very good lineup, and I think they are a team that will score quite a few runs this year. Liriano is still a pretty good pitcher, but the over has been a good play in his starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts. Kyle Drabek starts for the Jays, and while he is talented, I don't expect him to be able to shut down a lineup with Morneau and Mauer in the middle. I like the over here.
04-01-11 Los Angeles Lakers v. Utah Jazz UNDER 194.5 96-85 Win 100 8 h 16 m Show
*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Utah Jazz are a shell of their former team. Deron Williams is gone, and just about everyone is injured right now. Devin Harris, AK47, Raja Bell, Ronnie Price, and Mehmet Okur are all out for tonight's game. The Lakers defense doesn't get enough credit. The Lakers have the fifth best field goal percentage defense in the league. The Jazz will be very short-handed tonight, and I don't think they'll be able to score consistently at all. The referees are also huge under refs. The under is 110-65 combined in the games that these three referees have called this year. The under is 5-1 in the Lakers last 6 road games. The under is 4-1 in the Jazz's last 5 overall. Take the under here.
04-01-11 San Antonio Spurs v. Houston Rockets OVER 213.5 114-119 Win 100 6 h 22 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* This is not the same San Antonio Spurs team from a few years ago. The Spurs push the tempo more now, and they don't play much defense at all. The Spurs have actually lost five straight games, but they will have all their players back tonight. Houston is one of the best teams in the league at pushing the pace and scoring. The Rockets are averaging 114 points per game in their last five. They are also giving up 108 per game during that span. These teams met just a few weeks ago and the final was 115-107. I expect a similar result in this one. Take the over.
04-01-11 Minnesota Twins v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8.5 3-13 Win 104 19 h 58 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Carl Pavano generally doesn't start the season very well, and he doesn't like to pitch against the Jays. In his career Pavano's ERA is 4.70 in the first month of the year. Pavano's ERA against Toronto is 5.91. Ricky Romero is on the hill for Toronto, and he is a solid young pitcher, but he is coming back from an injury. The Twins get a big boost to their lineup when Justin Morneau goes back into the cleanup spot for Opening Day. Both teams have a solid lineup and neither pitcher has a favorable matchup. The over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. I like the over in this one.
04-01-11 Houston Astros v. Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 7 4-5 Loss -115 13 h 58 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Roy Halladay was the best pitcher in baseball last year, and I expect a lot from him again in 2011. The Houston Astros may have the worst lineup in all of baseball. Houston will struggle to score runs all year, and Halladay should absolutely shut them down. The Phillies lineup is good, but without Utley they aren't tremendous. Brett Myers has turned into a very solid pitcher, and he should be motivated to face his former team. The under is 11-4-1 in Myers' last 16 road starts. The under is 9-4-1 in Halladay's last 14 home starts. The under is also 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 15 mph on a cool damp day in Philly. I like the under here.
03-31-11 Milwaukee Brewers v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8 6-7 Win 100 13 h 38 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Both Yovani Gallardo and Edinson Volquez are talented young pitchers, but both struggle to find the zone at times. Gallardo has struggled badly against the Reds in the past couple years, and Volquez has struggled against the Brewers. This is the type of game where it wouldn't surprise me if the pitchers don't give up too many hits, but because of control problems they give up several runs. The over is 4-1-1 Volquez's last six starts against the Brewers. The over is 3-0-1 in Gallardo's last four starts against the Reds. Neither pitcher has been consistent, and I think this number is too low. Take the over.
03-30-11 Santa Clara v. Iona OVER 152.5 76-69 Loss -110 77 h 38 m Show
*3 Star College Hoops Total DOMINATION* The smaller postseason tournaments have been full of overs this year and I think this one sets up well to be another over. Santa Clara and Iona both push the tempo, so I expect a quick game with a lot of shot attempts. Iona is averaging 82 points per game in the CIT Tournament. Santa Clara is averaging 81 points per game in the CIT Tournament. Both teams are terrible on the defensive end of the floor, and their should be plenty of wide open looks from all over the floor in this game. While Iona is favored by a decent margin, Santa Clara is a good road team, which means this one could be close. In a close game free throws at the end can really push the score up. I think this game ends in the upper 150's. Take the over.
03-30-11 Cleveland Cavaliers v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 189.5 97-98 Loss -105 6 h 53 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Cleveland Cavaliers are coming off a huge win over the Miami Heat on Tuesday night. The Cavs are likely to be a little less fired up about a game in Charlotte than a game against LeBron and the Heat. Cleveland has slowed the pace down quite a bit in the last few weeks. The under is 11-1 in their last 12 games overall. Without Antawn Jamison, this team really struggles to score. Charlotte has a lot of injury concerns. D.J. Augustin is expected to play, but he is less than 100%. Tyrus Thomas ia game-time decision, and Shaun Livingston is doubtful for this game. Last time these two met the teams scored 193, but both teams were healthier, and they also got 63 free throws in that game. I expect this one to end under the posted total.
03-29-11 Alabama v. Colorado UNDER 143.5 62-61 Win 100 20 h 12 m Show
*3 Star NIT Total DOMINATION* I have been very profitable backing the Colorado Buffaloes 'over' plays this year, so I wouldn't have played this 'under' if I didn't see a lot of value in it. The Alabama Crimson Tide have played 35 games this year. Only three of their 35 games have gone over this posted total. Colorado has been playing teams that like to push the tempo just like they do of late, which has resulted in five straight overs. Alabama is a defensive-minded team. The Crimson Tide allow just 59.2 points per game on the year. Colorado's strength is in their ability to shoot, but they haven't played many defenses as strong as Alabama's over the course of the season. The postseason tournaments have seen a lot of high scoring games, which has pushed this number up to 143.5. Remember though, this game is being played at Madison Square Garden, which has typically been an 'under' bettors friend. I think Alabama slows the game down and this stays under the posted total.
03-28-11 Oregon v. Creighton OVER 141 76-84 Win 100 18 h 52 m Show
*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The smaller postseason tournaments have brought about a lot of fast paced basketball with high scoring final scores. It seems that these teams are letting loose a bit, and the fouling at the end of the game has pushed the totals higher in many cases as well. This is the first of a best of three series in the CBI Finals. Creighton played in the Missouri Valley, where everyone tries to slow the game down. The Blue Jays have showed in the postseason that they are more than willing to run if their opponent likes to push the pace. Oregon is a team that typically likes to run. The over is 2-1 in Oregon's three games in the CBI postseason tournament. The over is 3-0 in Creighton's three games in the postseason tournament. Take the over in this game.
03-27-11 San Antonio Spurs v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 197 104-111 Win 100 17 h 55 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs have been a pretty high scoring team this year, and I think their offense will speed up without Tim Duncan in the lineup. Duncan is still a great defender, but the Spurs push the pace more without Duncan in the game. Both of the first two games the Spurs have played since Duncan's injury have gone over the posted total. These two teams played on March 1, and the final total was 202 in that game, despite the teams combining to shoot 8-31 from beyond the arc. I expect the pace to speed up in this one, and the shooting numbers should improve a bit as well. I like this one to get above 200. Take the over!
03-26-11 Arizona v. Connecticut UNDER 147 63-65 Win 100 6 h 33 m Show
*3 Star Elite Eight Total DOMINATION* I believe this line is an overreaction to Arizona's amazing offensive explosion against Duke on Thursday night. Neither team pushes the ball consistently, so I don't think the pace will be too fast. The Wildcats of Arizona were very inconsistent this year, other than Derrick Williams. Williams is a beast and he'll get his points, but the rest of the team hasn't proven able to put together too many good games in a row. Kemba Walker should light up the scoreboard again, but UConn's big men might have a tougher time of it today. Neither team turns the ball over much so that shouldn't be much of an issue today. I think this one finishes around 140 or so, so I like the under in this game.
03-25-11 Toronto Raptors v. Golden State Warriors OVER 217.5 100-138 Win 100 21 h 43 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Golden State Warriors have picked the pace up once again over the last few games. Earlier this year Golden State slowed down a tick, but not lately. Golden State averages 105 points per game at home, and this Toronto defense is one of the worst in the league. Toronto has allowed 123 and 114 points in their last two games. Golden State's "defense" is allowing 113 points per game in their last five contests. I think this has a ton of potential to be a major scoring fest. Expect very little defense and a ton of quick shots in this one. Take the over!
03-25-11 Washington Wizards v. Denver Nuggets OVER 214 94-114 Loss -110 19 h 32 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Washington Wizards probably have the single worst defense in the league right now, but they are still running and gunning on offense. Denver is one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now, and they are probably the best offense. Denver has consistently been putting up huge numbers offensively. I think Denver could easily put up 120 points or more in this one. I think Washington will keep running and this one will go over the posted total.
03-25-11 Marquette v. North Carolina OVER 148 63-81 Loss -110 103 h 9 m Show
*3 Star College Hoops Total Domination* The North Carolina Tar Heels are at their best when they are running, and Marquette likes to force the tempo. I don't see either team slowing this game down at all. Marquette has plenty of shooters to knock it down from long range, while North Carolina has the big men who run the floor very well. Expect the pace to be extremely quick here, and since I believe it will be a close game, I expect plenty of free throws to help push this one over the posted total. Take the over here.
03-24-11 Brigham Young v. Florida UNDER 149.5 74-83 Loss -110 17 h 23 m Show
*3 Star Sweet Sixteen Total Domination* The Jimmer Fredette show will take on Florida in this Sweet Sixteen matchup. The Cougars of BYU definitely look to get out in transition and run, but I think Florida will make a devoted effort to slow this game down. The Gators have a good defense, especially against three-point shooting. Florida has the point guards that can control the pace of the game if they wish. I expect Florida to try to take away all other options for BYU and make Jimmer win this one by himself. I believe this line is a little bit inflated for an NCAA Tournament game on a neutral floor with less than ideal shooting backdrops. I like the under in this game.
03-23-11 San Antonio Spurs v. Denver Nuggets OVER 211 112-115 Win 100 9 h 59 m Show
*3 Star Spurs/Nuggets Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs will be playing without Tim Duncan tonight. Duncan is still a great player, but I think he means more to the team on defense now than on offense. The Nuggets will be playing without Afflalo, who is their best defensive player. Both teams like to push the pace, and I think the pace here will be quick. I expect the Spurs to play quicker without Duncan, and I think the Nuggets will get into the lane easier without the shot blocker down low. The over looks like a good value based on what the tempo should be in this game. Take the over.
03-23-11 Miami (Fla) v. Alabama UNDER 130.5 64-79 Loss -110 8 h 36 m Show
*3 Star NCAA Hoops Play of the Day* The Miami Hurricanes often struggle to score on the road, and the Alabama Crimson Tide have a tremendous defense, especially on their home court. Alabama allows only 52 points per game at home this year. Miami is averaging 67.8 points per game on the road, but I don't think they'll reach that tonight. The under is 5-1 in Miami's last 6 road games. The under is 4-1 in Alabama's last 5 as a home favorite. I like this one to stay in the mid 120's, below the posted total.
03-23-11 Sacramento Kings v. Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 195 97-90 Win 100 6 h 30 m Show
*3 Star NBA Top Totals Play* The Milwaukee Bucks have been an 'under' bettors dream this year, especially at home. The under is 25-11 in their 36 home games this year. The Kings have been on a big run to the 'over' but they scored 93 points or less in three of their last four games. The referees in this game are huge to the under side. The trio of referees that will be calling this game have a combined record of 104 games under the posted total and 59 games over the posted total. The Bucks offense is bad, their defense is good, and the referees should have a slow whistle. I like the under here.
03-22-11 Kent State v. Colorado OVER 153 74-81 Win 100 20 h 57 m Show
*3 Star College Hoops Total DOMINATION* The Kent State Golden Flashes have surprised a couple of teams to get this far in the NIT Tournament. Colorado really should have made the NCAA Tournament, but they were snubbed. The Buffaloes have a terrific offensive, especially on their home floor. Colorado is averaging 84.4 points per game at home this year and 84.8 points per game in their last five contests. This number is set high, but it is set high for a reason. Six of Colorado's last eight games have gone over 153 points (one of those that didn't finished at 152 points). Kent State's defense will have their hands full, and I think both teams will be pushing the tempo here. The over is 10-4 in Kent State's last 14. The over is 11-3 in Colorado's last 14 home games. Take the over.
03-22-11 Buffalo v. Iona OVER 145 63-78 Loss -108 18 h 57 m Show
*3 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The oddsmakers have had trouble lining the Buffalo Bulls games the last couple years. Buffalo plays against a lot of teams who like to slow the game down in the MAC, but the Bulls push the tempo when they can. The Bulls also get a lot of second chance points. The over is 43-18 in Buffalo's last 61 games overall. The over is 17-5 in Buffalo's last 22 non-conference games (77% over). What about Iona? The Gaels are a team that pushes the tempo at every opportunity, and they love to shoot the three ball. Iona has several very good three-point shooters. Buffalo's defensive weakness is guarding the three-point line. The three's should be falling in this game, and I expect both teams to get plenty of second chance points. I like the over.
03-21-11 Duquesne v. Oregon OVER 148.5 75-77 Win 100 9 h 38 m Show
*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Duquesne Dukes have a way of forcing the tempo against just about everyone. Oregon also likes to pressure defensively and try to force turnovers. I think the pace of this game will be very quick. Duquesne forces more turnovers than any other team in the country. Oregon has been very good offensively at home this year. The Ducks average 71.2 points per game at home. The over is 5-1 in the Ducks last 6 home games. I expect this game to stay uptempo all the way throughout, and since I expect a close game here, free throws should help push the total even higher. Take the over in this one!
03-21-11 New Mexico v. Alabama UNDER 130 67-74 Loss -108 9 h 51 m Show
*3 Star College Hoops Total DOMINATION* The New Mexico Lobos weren't a particularly powerful offensive team to start with, and now they are without Dairese Gary. Gary was their leading scorer this year, averaging 14 points per game. He is out the rest of the year with a knee injury. Alabama has one of the top ranked defenses in the entire country, and they play at a nice slow pace. Alabama is allowing just 51.6 points per game at home this year. New Mexico's defense is solid as well. I expect this to be a game played in the halfcourt, and I think the under is a very good value here. Take the under.
03-21-11 Utah Jazz v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 203 85-103 Loss -105 19 h 54 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz defense has been non-existent over the last few games. Utah has allowed 112.2 points per game over their last five contests. Only once in their last ten games have the Jazz allowed less than 100 points to their opponent. Memphis has been very good on offense at home. The Grizzlies average 103 points per game at home and the over is 21-13 in their 34 home games this year. The over is 7-2 in their last 9 games overall. The over is 5-0 in Utah's last five games overall. Both teams have been pushing the pace of late, and I think their will be plenty of shots put up in this game. I like the value on the over. I expect this one to finish up around 210 points. Take the over.
03-20-11 Florida State v. Notre Dame UNDER 134 71-57 Win 100 31 h 53 m Show
*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Florida State Seminoles got Chris Singleton back for the NCAA Tournament, and that makes them a completely different team. Florida State may have the best defense in the country. They have a lot of long players who can contest the shot, but they also do a good job staying in front of their man. Notre Dame will likely keep the tempo quite slow here, and Florida State is poor offensively. I think this is the type of game that could be much closer than many expect. Look for the Seminoles athleticism to cause Notre Dame some problems. I like the under here.
03-20-11 Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 186.5 80-84 Win 100 8 h 26 m Show
*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Lakers have been a solid 'under' team all year. The under is 42-27 in their 69 games this year. The under is 38-13-2 in the Lakers last 53 Sunday games. Portland is a team that struggles offensively, and they like to slow down the tempo of the game. Last time these two met in February the final was 106-101, but that was in overtime. The score at the end of regulation was just 87-87. The teams combined to make 20 three-point shots in that game, and I think that is unlikely to occur again. Kobe Bryant is dinged up and Andrew Bynum is questionable for this game. I expect a slow pace and a game that goes under the posted total.
03-20-11 Detroit Pistons v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 190 96-104 Loss -105 12 h 48 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* I have always been fond of early Sunday afternoon 'under' plays. The Atlanta Hawks have been a very good under team this year. Detroit has been all over the map when it comes to totals, but away from home they simply don't score nearly as much on average. The Pistons average just 91.7 points per game on the road, and the under is 22-12 in their 34 road games this year. The Hawks offense has been terrible of late. Atlanta is averaging 89.8 points per game in their last five contests. Atlanta will likely put up more against this terrible Detroit defense, but this line seems too high. I could easily see this one finishing at something like 97-87 or so. I like this one to stay a few points below the posted total. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. Take the under.
03-20-11 Kent State v. Fairfield UNDER 129 72-68 Loss -107 10 h 58 m Show
*3 Star Early Bird* The Kent State Golden Flashes are a talented team, but they don't shoot the ball well. Fairfield is a very good defensive team, but they aren't good at all offensively either. It is interesting to note that the under is 11-7 in Kent State's 18 road games this year. The under is 16-9 in Fairfield's 25 lined games this year. I just don't see either team being able to light it up against a solid defense. This game should be close all the way, and I think the defenses will be in control. Take the under in this early afternoon game.
03-20-11 Washington v. North Carolina OVER 157 83-86 Win 100 21 h 6 m Show
*3 Star March Madness Sunday Favorite Play* The Washington Huskies game plan heading into each game is to push the tempo and get their opponent running. North Carolina loves to run and they have the big men who can finish in transition. Washington isn't the type of team to slow a game down and I don't think North Carolina is at all either. Look for both teams to be looking to score in transition at every possible opportunity. Thomas and Marshall, the point guards for the two teams, are as quick as they come. Expect a very fast paced game. I like the over.
03-19-11 Charlotte Bobcats v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 192 98-109 Loss -110 5 h 52 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs are coming off a huge win at Dallas last night. This is likely to be an emotional letdown spot for the Spurs, but the Bobcats offense has been absolutely horrendous of late. Charlotte has scored just 78 and 82 points in their last two games, and I don't think they'll top the 85-88 point range in this one. San Antonio is a little less likely to be pushing the tempo than normal because they are on the back end of a back-to-back in their schedule. The under is 8-2 in Charlotte's last 10 games. The under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two. I really like the under here.
03-19-11 Indiana Pacers v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 202 78-99 Loss -110 4 h 14 m Show
*3 Star NBA Bookie SMASHER* The Indiana Pacers picked up a big win over the Bulls last night. The Pacers offense has come alive of late, and Tyler Hansbrough is a large reason why. Hansbrough has scored 29 points or more in three of their last four games. The Pacers lowest point total in those three games was 106 points. The Pacers will push the tempo and the Grizzlies will likely run with them. The over is 7-1 in Memphis' last 8 games overall. The over is also 7-1 in the Grizzlies last 8 home games. Take the over in this matchup.
03-19-11 Gonzaga v. Brigham Young OVER 149.5 67-89 Win 100 31 h 51 m Show
*3 Star March Madness Top Total* The Gonzaga Bulldogs showed their offensive firepower on Thursday night against St. John's. The Bulldogs were absolutely dominant on the boards (they outrebounded St. John's 41-18). BYU can definitely score, and we all know Jimmer Fredette is a scoring machine. The one thing BYU could have trouble with right now is a team with a strong inside game. No Brandon Davies could equal lots of solid looks for guys like Robert Sacre and Elias Harris. BYU will look to push the tempo at every opportunity, and I don't think Gonzaga will try to slow it down much either. The pace should be there for a high scoring game, and both teams are great at the free throw line. I like the over in this game.
03-19-11 Jacksonville v. Southern Methodist UNDER 123 62-63 Loss -110 26 h 56 m Show
*3 Star Total Value Play* The SMU Mustangs have made a concerted effort over the last half of the year to slow the game down as much as possible. It has worked quite well for them overall. SMU is giving up just 57.8 points per game over their last five contests. SMU doesn't guard beyond the arc well, but Jacksonville struggles badly shooting it from deep. SMU is one of the slowest paced teams in the country, and I think they'll be able to control the tempo here. This is the type of game where I think Jacksonville really struggles to score and this one stays under the posted total.
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