Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-08-22 | Merrimack v. Central Connecticut State UNDER 126.5 | 66-57 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are coming off an insanely good shooting performance. Keep in mind that Merrimack shot 33 and 32% from 3 point range in the last two years. They made 17 out of 26 three pointers in their last contest. This is still a below average offense for Merrimack. I expect regression to the mean. Central Connecticut State has slowed their tempo down quite a bit under their new coach. They are a bad team, but they are slightly better on defense this year. Merrimack is an excellent defensive team. Merrimack plays a zone defense that extends full court to slow the opponent down. Central Connecticut State should have a really hard time against this zone. The one weakness of the Merrimack defense is they allow a lot of offensive rebounds. C Conn St ranks among the 50 worst teams in the country in offensive rebounding. Look back at Merrimack's games from earlier this year and you'll see a bunch of very low scoring games. The total is inflated some here because of their recent shooting numbers. Take the under. |
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01-06-22 | SMU v. Cincinnati UNDER 140.5 | 60-77 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats have a new coach in Wes Miller this year. Miller has been a great defensive mind at UNC Greensboro for many years. He has Cincinnati playing excellent defense this year. Cincinnati is 5th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Cincinnati held Illinois to 51 points in a great defensive showing earlier this year. SMU is a good offensive team. The Mustangs have played a weak slate of defenses though, and I think Wes Miller's zone press could slow the pace down and give SMU some trouble here. Cincinnati's offense is poor. Their spacing isn't good and they take too many mid range low quality jumpers. I expect a hard fought AAC battle here. Take the under. |
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01-06-22 | Binghamton v. Albany UNDER 126.5 | 88-79 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Both Binghamton and Albany have had major problems with COVID 19 in recent weeks. Both of their coaches said they will be down multiple players for this game. Albany is an excellent defensive team. The Great Danes have constantly played low scoring contests. In fact, their last six games have finished at 124 points or less. The Great Danes are good at preventing easy baskets near the rim, and Binghamton often tries for those easy looks at the rim. Binghamton ranks 314th in the nation in tempo. They struggle with wasted possessions due to turnovers on offense as well. They sometimes struggle on the defensive glass, but Albany is a weak offensive rebounding team. Take the under here. |
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01-06-22 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Long Island UNDER 139 | 57-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Long Island University Sharks do play at a quick tempo. They have historically played quicker than they are this year though. LIU ranks 61st in tempo compared to a year ago when they were 9th. This is a team that relies heavily on the catch and shoot 3 point jumper. The biggest strength of this Mt. St. Mary's defense is against that offensive attack. In fact, they are 39th in the country according to Shot Quality in those situations. Mt. St. Mary's plays at a very slow pace. They have been able to control the pace of the game the last four times they have matched up against LIU. Two years ago both of their matchups finished at 130 points in regulation. Last year, the two games finished at 126 and 110 points. Mt. St. Mary's and LIU are both poor when it comes to efficiency on offense. LIU tries to score in transition, but they are bottom 50 in transition offensive efficiency. Mt. St. Mary's settles for too many midrange jumpers. Take the under. |
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01-05-22 | Creighton v. Villanova UNDER 132.5 | 41-75 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats were blown out at Creighton a few weeks ago. Creighton won 79-59. Creighton shot 65% from 2 point range in that game. According to the website Shot Quality, based on the quality of shots they took the Creighton Blue Jays should have scored only 60 points in that game. Creighton made a bunch of tough jump shots in that game. Villanova ranks 346th in tempo in college basketball this year. The Wildcats have seen 5 of their last 8 games finish with a total of 127 points or less. Their extremely slow tempo has led to some very low scoring games. Creighton put up just 58 points in regulation against a very fast paced Marquette team in their last game. The Blue Jays don't have the great long range shooters that they have had in recent seasons. Look for Villanova to get control of this game and slow the pace down to a crawl. I think they get revenge and this game stays under the total. Take the under. |
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01-05-22 | Rockets v. Wizards OVER 229.5 | 114-111 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Rockets defense has been the worst in the NBA in the last ten games, and it isn't very close. Houston is giving up a whopping 1.238 points per possession. No one else is giving up more than 1.208. Houston is playing fast as well. The Rockets are 10th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. In their last five games, Houston ranks third in the league in tempo. Their offense has been middle of the pack, which is much improved from earlier this season. Washington ranks 25th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games played. The Wizards have allowed 117 points or more in seven of their last nine games. Houston has allowed 120 points or more in seven of their last eight games. The other game they allowed 118 points. Look for a high scoring fast paced game here. Take the over. |
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01-04-22 | Seton Hall v. Butler UNDER 131.5 | 71-56 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Butler Bulldogs are elite at controlling the tempo of a game. Butler ranks 346th in the nation in overall tempo. They haven't played a game all season with a pace of higher than 69 possessions. Their defense is also quite a bit better than it was a year ago. They rebound well on defense and don't foul very often. Seton Hall is playing fast. The Pirates are just a decent offensive team, but they are tremendous on the defensive end. Seton Hall ranks 15th in effective field goal percentage defense. These two teams played twice last year. The final scores were 68-60 and 61-52. The Bulldogs were able to slow the pace down in both of those games. Butler takes a bunch of 3 pointers, but Seton Hall ranks 9th in the country in 3 point percentage defense. Take the under. |
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01-04-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 138.5 | 85-79 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles started the season out playing extremely fast. They have gradually slowed their pace down in recent weeks. Stan Heath is their new head coach. Over the course of his career his teams have generally played slower than the average team. It appears this team is backing off on the pace a bit of late. Western Michigan ranks 342nd in average possession length out of 358 teams in the country. The Broncos absolutely want to slow the game down. Western Michigan isn't good on defense, but their defensive stats are a bit skewed this year. They have faced some amazing offenses. They have had to face Iowa, Michigan State, Toledo, and Notre Dame. Eastern Michigan ranks in the 2nd percentile in the country according to Shot Quality when it comes to shot selection. Western Michigan ranks in the 16th percentile in the country in shot selection. These two teams settle for really poor shots. Both also rank as worse than the normal team when it comes to taking care of the basketball. There should be plenty of wasted possessions. Take the under. |
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01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals have found a franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow. As long as the offensive line protects him to some degree here, I do think Burrow and this group of elite pass catchers can pick up some chunk plays on the Chiefs secondary. Kansas City's defense has clearly played better in recent weeks, but the Chiefs defense has faced some terrible offenses. They also have caught opponents when they are shorthanded. The Bengals offense is playing very well right now and they are quite healthy. Cincinnati's defense is missing two key starters at linebacker. The Bengals defense didn't look very good against the Ravens last week with Josh Johnson at the helm. Patrick Mahomes gets back Kelce and the Chiefs offense has improved a lot in recent weeks. I don't trust the Bengals defense to be able to slow them down. If either of these teams gets down much and starts taking a lot of shots and playing quickly, it will help the over in a big way. Take the over. |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins v. Titans UNDER 40.5 | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Dolphins defense has been tremendous of late. Granted, they haven't played a tough schedule of offenses. Still, they have dominated the offenses put in front of them. In its current form, the Tennessee Titans offense isn't very good. Ryan Tannehill isn't playing with much confidence, and Derrick Henry is badly missed. The Titans are dead last in the NFL in 20 plus yard plays. They aren't explosive at all right now. Miami's offense isn't any good either. Tua is inconsistent and relies on Waddle far too much. The Titans defense ranks top ten in the NFL across the board in the past five games. The weather here could play a role too. Winds and possible rain mixed with snow is expected to come in during this game. During the middle of the game the sustained winds are expected at about 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That will just increase as the game gets into the fourth quarter. Take the under. |
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01-01-22 | CS-Northridge v. UC San Diego UNDER 132 | 64-72 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are a completely different team this year under Trent Johnson. Johnson's coaching style is a total flip from what this team has been under Mark Gottfried. No longer is this team running and gunning and not worrying about defense. They are now one of the slowest paced teams in the country, and defense is their primary focus. CS Northridge is atrocious on the offensive end. The Matadors have played 9 games against Division I teams and they have scored 54 points or less in six of those nine contests. UC San Diego is a better offensive team, but they have relied pretty heavily on both getting to the line and shooting it from long range. CS Northridge doesn't foul very much on average, and the team has been best at defending long range jumpers. CS Northridge has a major weakness on the defensive glass, but UC San Diego has ranked in the bottom 15 in the country (out of 358) in offensive rebounding percentage last year and this year. Take the under. |
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01-01-22 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma UNDER 128.5 | 69-71 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma Sooners have a new coach this year and Porter Moser is well known for his defensive minded teams. Oklahoma has held three of its last four opponents to 54 points or less in regulation. Oklahoma started the season out playing fast paced basketball, but they have slowed their tempo down of late. I would expect some further slowing of their average pace through the season. Kansas State is always a defensive-minded team under Bruce Weber. Weber's teams often lack imagination in their offensive sets, but they are always working hard and making the opposition take tough shots. Kansas State has seen 4 of their last 6 games finish at 127 points or lower. Both teams are excellent on the defensive boards, and neither team gets to the line all that much either. Take the under. |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati v. Alabama UNDER 58.5 | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 181 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats defense is legitimately elite. Cincinnati has 4 or 5 NFL plays on their defense. The secondary is arguably the best in the country. John Metchie being out hurts Alabama's passing attack a lot. Bryce Young is great and he'll have some success here regardless, but they will have to rely very heavily on Jameson Williams. Expect Cincinnati's secondary to have more success slowing down Alabama than did Georgia. The Cincinnati Bearcats have been run heavy of late. They'd like to do the same in this game, but I think it will be tough. Alabama can be beaten through the air sometimes, but their run defense is tremendous. The Crimson Tide are allowing only 2.51 ypc and PFF ranks them as the #1 run defense in the country. Is Desmond Ridder good enough to air it out and consistently burn Alabama? I don't think it is terribly likely. The guys who have burned this Alabama defense in the past (Watson and Joe Burrow for example) are several levels better than Ridder. Cincinnati has to want a low scoring battle here and they should play at a slow tempo. Alabama has played very slowly with a lead all year and they are a big favorite. Take the under. |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh v. Michigan State UNDER 58 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 328 h 11 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers will be without star quarterback Kenny Pickett here. Pickett opted out of this game and will get ready for the NFL Draft. The Panthers will also be without offensive coordinator Mark Whipple who resigned to go to Nebraska to be the OC. Whipple did a great job with this offense and I consider this a big loss. Pickett is clearly a massive loss and the drop in production to Nick Patti is massive at the quarterback spot. *Note- this has moved down a bit since I selected it. I would still play this for a 4 star rating down to 55.5 and a 3 star rating down to 54. Thank you and good luck.* |
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12-30-21 | Fordham v. La Salle UNDER 135.5 | 69-61 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The La Salle Explorers and Fordham Rams have both been on an extended absence due to COVID 19 issues. La Salle hasn't played since December 18. Fordham hasn't played since all the way back to December 12. Last year we saw these absences lead to some sloppy low scoring games on average in their first game back. Fordham is accustomed to a bunch of sloppy and low scoring contests. Fordham is very good at defending beyond the arc, and La Salle likes to shoot a lot of long range jumpers. La Salle will then go after offensive rebounds hard, but Fordham is a very good defensive rebounding team as well. The Rams offense is a bit better this year, but they are still subpar and can go through scoring droughts. La Salle's offensive numbers aren't very good so far this year, and they have faced the second easiest slate of defenses (357th out of 358th) in the country. Fordham has faced the 356th toughest slate of defenses in the country. Essentially, these two teams have put up poor numbers against terrible defenses. Both of these two teams are better on defense than they are on offense. Take the under. |
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12-29-21 | Eastern Illinois v. Morehead State UNDER 128.5 | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles rank 307th in average possession length, so they prefer a very slow pace on the offensive end. Eastern Illinois ranks 310th in average possession length as well. The tempo here should be very slow throughout. Eastern Illinois hasn't scored more than 62 points in a game against a Division I opponent all season. Eastern Illinois has been held to 56 points or less in 9 of their 11 games against Division I opponents. They have been held to 45 points or less in 4 of those games. This is a really bad offense. Morehead State has an elite shot blocker in Broome and he should keep Eastern Illinois out of the paint here. Morehead State and Eastern Illinois both turn the ball over a bunch on offense, and those wasted possessions are great for the under. Both these teams don't to the line much, and both defenses are great at defending without fouling. Take the under here. |
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12-28-21 | West Virginia v. Minnesota UNDER 45 | 6-18 | Win | 100 | 31 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers rank 130th in the country in tempo. No one in the country plays as slow as Minnesota. Minnesota is going to run the football and try to very slowly move the ball down the field. The Golden Gophers run on 69.5% of their offensive plays. This is a conservative offense. Minnesota is up against a West Virginia defense that is much better at stopping the run than the pass. The Mountaineers are a solid 48th in rushing play success rate allowed. The Minnesota defense is 4th in the nation in total yards per game allowed. Minnesota ranks 18th in success rate allowed defensively. The Golden Gophers are solid on all levels on defense. They don't give up big plays either. They have only allowed 35 plays of 20 yards or more all year (3rd best in the country). West Virginia star running back Leddie Brown will not play in this game. This puts more pressure on a relatively weak offensive line and a quarterback in Jarrett Doege who has been subpar. A lot of running the football and very few big plays here. West Virginia is 93rd in pace as well, so a slow tempo from both teams. Take the under. |
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12-26-21 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 41.5 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 61 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos have faced the second easiest slate of defenses so far this year. Their offense ranks 19th in YPP and that is with Teddy Bridgewater under center and against weak defenses. Now, they are left with Drew Lock and they are up against an Oakland defense that is quite a bit better than anyone expected they would be this season. Oakland will likely be without Darren Waller here. The Raiders are much worse offensively without Waller, who is an elite tight end. Oakland could muster only 16 points against Cleveland last week without Waller. They only scored 15 against Washington without Waller. They scored only 9 points against KC without Waller. The Broncos defense is better than those defenses. I don't think Las Vegas will score many here. Bridgewater to Lock is a big step down. Bridgewater has been an underrated quarterback for much of his NFL career. Lock is wildly inconsistent and he lacks good weapons on the outside as well. A low scoring contest here. Take the under. |
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12-26-21 | Bears v. Seahawks UNDER 42 | 25-24 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears turn to Nick Foles in this game. The Bears really don't have a good option at quarterback at all. Foles likes to throw a bunch of short passes and play it very safe. Allen Robinson is the Bears only good option at wide receiver and he is currently on the COVID list. He is doubtful to return before this game. The Bears will be without Jakeem Grant and left tackle Jason Peters as well. Seattle has played well defensively of late. The Seahawks are second in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Bears are likely to have a conservative game plan here, and I don't think that will lead to much success for Chicago. The Bears defense has faced the toughest slate of opposing offenses so far this year. Seattle's offense isn't even close to what it was in the past. The Seahawks have been pretty reliant on the big play, but the Bears don't give up too many big plays. Seattle's weather for Sunday looks very questionable. There is a 50% chance of snow during this game and winds of 14 mph with very cold temperatures are in the forecast. Take the under. |
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12-26-21 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 40.5 | 10-34 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Divisional unders in the NFL have been good bets especially in the late regular season games. These two teams know each other well and that often helps the defense. Jake Fromm is expected to get his first start for the Giants here. Fromm isn't likely to be anything more than a game manager here. He was fine at Georgia, but he was never asked to do too much with an elite offensive line and very good receivers. Kadarius Toney is a game time decision here, and if he does play he will be less than 100 percent. The Giants lack outside weapons. The offensive line is below average as well. The Eagles run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. The Giants defense has actually been pretty good this year. Despite playing the 5th toughest slate of offenses, the Giants are 12th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Seven of the Giants last eight games finished at 40 points or lower. Winds of 13 mph with gusts to 22 mph are in the forecast for this game. Take the under. |
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12-25-21 | Hawks v. Knicks UNDER 209.5 | 87-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Hawks are without 5 of their top 7 scorers in this game including star Trae Young. Atlanta has played two games without Young and in those two games they have played at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA during that span. Atlanta lacks go to guys on the offensive end now. They have played two games where they failed to score 100 points. Those contests totaled 202 and 194 points. The New York Knicks rank as the second slowest paced team in the NBA in their last ten games. The Knicks aren't going to be running and gunning in this one. Christmas Day unders have been a great betting angle in the NBA in the past decade. Early games on Christmas Day staying under has been an even stronger angle. This is an extremely early tipoff. Take the under. |
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12-23-21 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 214.5 | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder rank second last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Phoenix Suns rank second best in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Oklahoma City isn't likely to score very many points against Phoenix in this one. The Thunder have slowed their pace down in recent weeks. Oklahoma City is likely to try to keep this pace slower than the league average. The Suns are only giving up 0.992 points per possession which is excellent defensively in their last five games. The day before Christmas Eve has been a good under day in the NBA in the long term. Take the under here. |
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12-22-21 | BYU v. South Florida UNDER 129 | 54-39 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The South Florida Bulls have a way of making every game extremely ugly. That isn't meant as a bad thing necessarily. USF has won a lot of close games with their defensive style and very slow pace. They aren't likely to win this game, but their defense should at least slow BYU down. BYU has faced the 15th best slate of offenses in the country this year. They still have impressive defensive numbers. They don't allow second chance opportunities much at all, which is crucial against a team like USF that relies heavily on offensive rebounds. USF held Auburn to 58 points in an ugly game earlier this year. I don't think they'll hold BYU to that kind of total, but they should make things uncomfortable at least at times. The USF offense has been a mess all year, and I don't see them stringing together many good possessions. A neutral court is a good thing for the under too. Take the under. |
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12-22-21 | Boise State v. Washington State UNDER 130.5 | 58-52 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars defense has been excellent this year. Kyle Smith is a quality coach and he has this team really defending well. Washington State ranks 42nd in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage defense. The Cougars have improved a lot in transition defense, and they are a very good defensive rebounding team since Smith has taken over. Boise State is a top 20 defensive rebounding team. The Broncos are good at both forcing turnovers and defending the paint, which is a really nice combination for a defense. These offenses are capable, but both go through scoring droughts and can be inefficient for long stretches. This is played at a neutral site and these games are a plus for the under. Take the under. |
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12-22-21 | Oral Roberts v. South Dakota State OVER 162 | 76-82 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* I don't like taking overs that are this high, but I think this one is a good value. South Dakota State's offense is an absolute juggernaut, especially on their home floor. South Dakota State has scored 91 points or more five times already this year. The Jackrabbits have the perfect mix of inside scoring presence and long range shooters from the perimeter. Oral Roberts is a bad defensive team. The Golden Eagles are 249th in defensive efficiency in the country. On the other side, Max Abmas and this Oral Roberts offense are excellent. Oral Roberts excels from 3 point range, and South Dakota State has struggled in a big way defending beyond the arc the last couple seasons. Last year these two teams met twice. The final scores were 103-86 and 95-80. It was no fluke. These two offenses are excellent. Take the over. |
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12-21-21 | Georgia State v. Georgia Tech OVER 141.5 | 62-72 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers have been excellent at pushing the pace the last couple seasons. Georgia State won a 4 overtime game against Georgia Tech last year. That game was high scoring all the way and was played to a very quick tempo. Georgia State has a great scorer in Kane Williams. Williams is a tough matchup for Georgia Tech. The Panthers should get open looks from 3 against a questionable three point defense from the Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech has an excellent shooter in Devoe. He is over 50% from 3 point range on the season thus far. Georgia State is one of the worst in the country at defending beyond the arc. I think that is a problem here. Take the over. |
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12-21-21 | Southeastern Louisiana v. Iowa OVER 154.5 | 62-93 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Fran McCaffrey's Iowa Hawkeyes have absolutely loved to crush weaker opponents and push the pace all the way to the finish. This has happened year after year with McCaffrey in Iowa City. Iowa has already 106 points or more three times this year. Though I'm not predicting they'll get to that number here, I do think they'll put up a big number. SE Louisiana has no answer at all for Keegan Murray, Pat McCaffrey, and Jordan Bohannon. Iowa hasn't scored less than 85 points in a single home game all year. They have scored 106 or more in half of their home games. SE Louisiana prefers to play quickly and they should get enough possessions in this game to get us enough points to get past the posted total. Take the over. |
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12-21-21 | Morehead State v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 120 | 80-52 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* IUPUI is the worst offense in the country right now. They are dead last in the nation in offensive efficiency. IUPUI hasn't topped 59 points in a game against a Division I opponent all year. They haven't topped 61 points against anyone. IUPUI has been held to 47 points or less in 6 of their 9 Division I matchups. Ouch. Morehead State is an above average defense. The Eagles have struggled so far this year defending the 3 point line, but in the past they have been good there. I don't believe IUPUI is the team to make them pay in that area anyways. Morehead State likes to play slowly and IUPUI absolutely has to play stall ball at this point. Take the under. |
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12-21-21 | Eastern Illinois v. Ball State UNDER 140.5 | 55-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers have played ten games against Division I opponents this year. Eastern Illinois has yet to score more than 62 points in any of those games. Even worse, they have only scored more than 56 points in two of their contests. This is a dreadful Eastern Illinois offense. They rank 355th out of 358 offenses in the country in offensive efficiency. Eastern Illinois is terrible offensively, and they play very slowly as well. Despite being behind nearly all the time, this team ranks 309th in average possession length. Ball State plays quickly and they have had quite a few high scoring games. The Cardinals should win this game comfortably. Ball State has played a lot of fast paced good offenses this year. Eastern Illinois is far from that. I think the fact that Ball State has played so many very good offenses (Xavier, Weber State, UMass, etc) inflates this total. Ball State has been an above average defense in each of the last three years. I think their defensive numbers will improve as we move forward. Take the under here. |
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12-21-21 | Jacksonville v. Pittsburgh UNDER 117.5 | 55-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers have a really weak offense. Their best offense is getting to the free throw line. Outside of that, they really have no strength as an offense. They are a pretty good offensive rebounding team, but Jacksonville is 10th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Jacksonville is well coached by Jordan Mincy and he has this team focusing on defense. They gave up just 55 points against a good Minnesota team. They also allowed only 63 points against a fast paced UCF team. Pitt has already played 5 games this year that stayed under this very low total. That includes their last game over ultra fast paced St. John's where Pitt controlled the pace. Both teams want to play slowly here, and I see this being a major grinder. Take the under. |
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12-19-21 | Cal-Irvine v. Duquesne UNDER 133.5 | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters are an excellent defensive team every single year under Russell Turner. If you don't work hard on the defensive end of the floor, you don't play for Turner. UC Irvine is 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense this season. Their "free throw defense" has been this year, which would suggest that they are actually due for positive regression in that area. Duquesne tries to get inside and finish in the mid range area and post up more than the average team. UC Irvine is a much taller team than them and the Anteaters should make their shots difficult. UC Irvine goes through long scoring droughts on offense and they shoot far too many mid range tough jump shots. This is played on a neutral court which is a positive for the under. Take the under. |
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12-19-21 | Panthers v. Bills UNDER 44 | 14-31 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Josh Allen is banged up for the Buffalo Bills. I would expect the Bills to be more cautious in their play calling here for a couple reasons. First, the Panthers have a good secondary and they could make things difficult for the Bills to begin with. Second, the Bills are a big favorite here and they can likely win this game without Allen having to do a lot. Allen is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league as well, and limited mobility makes him much less dangerous. The Panthers offense is a mess regardless of whether Cam Newton or PJ Walker is under center. Carolina is going to want to run the football a bunch here. Matt Rhule has said he wants 35 carries a game. Here is his chance. The Bills secondary is above average even with their injury problems. The Bills run defense was taken advantage of by the Patriots. I don't think the Panthers can do the same, but they will try. Take the under here. |
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12-18-21 | Portland State v. CS-Northridge UNDER 128.5 | 66-69 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The CS Northridge Matadors have completely changed their style of play under Trent Johnson. They were a run and gun team for many years, but Johnson has them slowing the pace down in a big way and trying to win low scoring contests. CS Northridge has played six straight games that finished regulation with 122 points or less. This is a really low scoring team that has improved on defense as well. Portland State is a terrible offensive team. The Vikings prefer to play somewhat fast, but they are one of the worst offenses in terms of efficiency in the country. Portland State has played an easy schedule of defenses so far this year, and they still have shot just 23% from 3 point range and are averaging only 0.92 points per possession. This should be a hard fought game where both teams take a lot of tough shots. Take the under. |
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12-18-21 | LSU v. Louisiana Tech UNDER 145 | 66-57 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The LSU Tigers were amazing defensively the past few years. They were bad on the defensive end the past few years. The team couldn't be more different this year. LSU is now only a little above average on the offensive end. They are now elite on the defensive end. The Tigers are rated #1 in effective field goal percentage defense and #2 in the country in defensive efficiency. It is their length all over the floor and multiple shot blockers patrolling the paint that makes LSU such a good defensive team this year. Will Wade has recruited long post players, and it is working out. LSU hasn't played a single game that finished with more than 143 points this year. LA Tech is an above average team and they are pretty good on defense as well. Kenneth Lofton is excellent, but he'll likely be at least slowed down by LSU's length in the frontcourt. This game is played on a neutral floor which is a positive for the under. Take the under. |
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12-18-21 | St. Peter's v. Stony Brook OVER 133.5 | 63-64 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Both St. Peter's and Stony Brook have looked much better on the offensive end this year than they did last season. Stony Brook is 134th in effective field goal percentage offense this year after being just below #300 last year. The Seawolves got a couple key transfers in Anthony Roberts and Jahlil Jenkins. Both of those guys are solid outside shooters, and Stony Brook has been good from 3 point range this season. St. Peter's attacks the rim in a big way. They get to the line a lot, and Stony Brook has been bad at defending the paint this year. Stony Brook and St. Peter's are both playing about 3 possessions per game faster than they did a year ago. Take the over. |
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12-18-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Liberty UNDER 58.5 | 20-56 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles are very reliant on the passing attack. Eastern Michigan is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry (108th out of 130 teams in the country). The Eagles rely on Ben Bryant to complete a bunch of quick passes and do damage through the air. Liberty's strength on defense is their pass defense and their pass rush. Eastern Michigan has given up 38 sacks (Liberty has 33 sacks too). Liberty ranks 17th in passing play success rate allowed. Eastern Michigan's defense isn't good, but they do rank 9th in explosive plays allowed. They don't give up many big plays. That will help against Liberty's explosive offense. Liberty has allowed 50 sacks this year, and the Eagles should get to Willis some of the time. Eastern Michigan has done a good job slowing teams down once they get into the red zone as well. There is rain in the forecast for this one and that could keep things a little more conservative. I think Liberty will do a good job slowing down Eastern Michigan's passing attack especially with help from the weather. The pace of the game should be fairly slow. Take the under here. |
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12-15-21 | Nebraska-Omaha v. UNLV OVER 138.5 | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Nebraska Omaha ranked in the top ten in pace in the country in 2016 and 2017. The team has been fairly quick in recent seasons, but they have slowed down a bit. Coach Derrin Henson said before the year that he has the depth he needs to run at a blistering pace this year again. Omaha started the year playing a bit slower than I expected, but they were playing some very good defenses. The Mavericks have played four straight games to 70 possessions or quicker. Omaha ranks as a bottom ten defense in the country. This Mavericks team gives up points in bunches. UNLV has played quicker of late as well. Kevin Kruger does want the Rebels to get out in transition more than they have in recent years. UNLV has played two of their last three games to 72 possessions and 71 possessions. The Rebels have faced the 54th toughest schedule of defenses this year. This is the worst defense they have faced all season. Look for a pretty quick pace here. The total is a little too low given the tempo I expect here. Take the over. |
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12-15-21 | New Mexico State v. Washington State UNDER 138.5 | 64-61 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars are very well coached by Kyle Smith. Washington State is coming off a loss to South Dakota State. South Dakota State is one of the most efficient offenses in the country. They'll go up against another quality team here in New Mexico State. New Mexico State is a team that plays much slower though, and the Aggies depend on defense. New Mexico State is 284th in average possession length in the country. Washington State is 242nd in average possession length. This game should be played at a pretty slow tempo. Washington State's defense has faced some really tough offenses already this year. The Cougars defense is better than it looks on paper. Washington State hasn't faced many good defenses though, and I think their offensive numbers will regress in the coming weeks. These two teams are good on the defensive boards and I think open looks will be tough to come by. Take the under. |
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12-15-21 | Lakers v. Mavs UNDER 213.5 | 107-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks host the LA Lakers tonight. Luka Doncic is expected to miss this game. Dallas ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA in the last eight games. It isn't particularly close either. In fact, in their last two games without Doncic, the Mavericks played to a pace of just under 90 possessions per game. That's extremely slow. The Lakers are middle of the pack in tempo. Los Angeles does rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Mavericks rank 7th. These two teams are both competing well on the defensive end. Both Malik Monk and Talen Horton Tucker are likely out here for the Lakers and those guys are good offensive options. The referee crew is a positive as well. Brian Forte is 54.9% unders in his games as a ref (more than 800 games) and James Williams is at 52% unders in his career. Take the under. |
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12-14-21 | Jacksonville v. Southern Miss UNDER 126.5 | 62-51 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles take a lot of mid range jumpers that are low quality shots. Southern Miss has been a trainwreck on offense so far this year. How bad have they been? They have scored 56 points or less in 5 of their 8 games against Division I competition so far this season. Jacksonville has a new coach in Jordan Mincy and the team is built around defense. The Dolphins are showing it already. Jacksonville has allowed 56 points or less in 4 of their first 6 games against Division I teams. That includes allowing only 55 points against a good Minnesota team. The tempo here should be very slow. Jacksonville ranks 345th in average possession length and they have been great at controlling the pace of the game. Both of these teams are great on the defensive glass, so I don't expect many second chance points. Take the under. |
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12-12-21 | Bills v. Bucs OVER 53 | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 48 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense is the best in the NFL. They have scored 29 points or more in eight straight games. Tom Brady and this Bucs offense have consistently been tremendous this year. Buffalo's defense is good, but the Bills defense isn't as good as it looks on paper. First, the Bills have faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Bills have also played in a couple bad weather games that have helped their numbers. Also, Tre'Davious White is now out and he is their top cover corner. That's not a good guy to be without when going against this Bucs passing attack. The Bills offense is still good. Last week's game against New England is a throw away. The winds there were far too much to throw the ball around. Josh Allen should have success against a middle of the road Bucs secondary. The weather here looks good. The total is pretty high, but I think this is a back and forth game. Take the over. |
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12-12-21 | 49ers v. Bengals OVER 48.5 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers secondary has been aggressive this year. They have been able to force some turnovers, but they are also prone to giving up big plays. Joe Burrow has turned it over too much this year and the 49ers could pick up an interception or two here. Still, Burrow is a good quarterback and his receivers are very good. They are more than capable of the big play ball here. The Bengals lost their defensive leader in Logan Wilson due to an injury. Cincinnati's defense is clearly better than last year, but they aren't as good as their statistics on the season would tell you. They have played a weak slate of opposing offenses. Ewuzie is likely to try to play, but he is far less than 100%. Deebo Samuel is expected to play here and that helps the 49ers in a big way. George Kittle should have a big game against a Bengals defense that has struggled badly covering tight ends this year. Take the over. |
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12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans UNDER 42.5 | 33-13 | Loss | -113 | 130 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Texans are the worst offense in the NFL, and it isn't close. Houston has been held to 9 points or less in six of their last ten games. The Texans gained 2.8 yards per play at home against a mediocre Colts defense in their last game. Houston has no strengths on defense. The Seattle Seahawks offense has been a mess of late as well. Seattle might have won last weekend, but the offense didn't look like it was fixed. In fact, they only gained 4.8 yards per play. The offensive line is weak and Russell Wilson doesn't look 100 percent. The Seattle defense has been good against the run. Houston has no deep passing to keep them honest. The Texans defense has been fighting hard in recent weeks. They haven't given up. An ugly game here. Take the under. |
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12-12-21 | Jackson State v. Iowa State UNDER 128.5 | 37-47 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones defense has been amazing this year. They just held the Iowa Hawkeyes to 53 points in their last game. The Hawkeyes offense is one of the best in the country. Iowa State ranks 9th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Jackson State is 336th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Tigers have played two top 50 teams in the country so far this year (Indiana and Illinois). They scored 35 points and 47 points in those two games. It wouldn't be a surprise if they struggle to get past 50 points in this one. Iowa State has had some trouble taking care of the basketball, and Jackson State is a scrappy defense that forces the opposition to turn it over a lot. Take the under. |
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12-12-21 | Bucks v. Knicks UNDER 217 | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks host the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday at noon eastern. This is an early Sunday tipoff, and these early tips on Sunday have been good under plays in the past decade. Sunday is the best day for unders in the NBA long term by a wide margin, and the early games have been even better for the under. The New York Knicks tempo is second slowest in the NBA in the last ten games. The Bucks rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Milwaukee is playing fairly quick, but they are playing slower than they did a year ago. These two teams have met twice this year. The posted totals were 216.5 and 216. Both of those games went under the total. One of the unders was a game where the Bucks nailed a whopping 26 three pointers. The pace has been slow in the first two matchups. Take the under here. |
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12-12-21 | Miami-FL v. Fordham UNDER 141 | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are a better scoring team than they were the last couple seasons, but this is still a bad offense. They went from being the worst offense in the country to being just bad on offense. Fordham has played the 5th easiest slate of defenses this year, so their offensive numbers look a little better than they should. Miami's weakness defensively is giving up too many three point shots. Fordham shot 27% from 3 last year, and they are only at 30.7% from beyond the arc so far this season. The Rams aren't likely to be able to take advantage of the Miami weakness. This game is an early tipoff on a neutral court. Neutral courts are a positive for unders on the whole. Fordham puts in effort on defense and they will slow the game down a bit. Take the under. |
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12-11-21 | Cal-Irvine v. Fresno State UNDER 123.5 | 55-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters take on the Fresno State Bulldogs today. Both of these teams are tremendous on the defensive end. One thing I always look for with a low under is two teams who can rebound well defensively. We don't want second chance points for offenses in a low total. Both of these two teams rank in the top 25 in the nation in defensive rebounding. They are also both better than average at defending without fouling. UC Irvine ranks 54th in defensive efficiency. Fresno State ranks 71st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Both teams are excellent at protecting the rim. While both of these offenses like to attack the paint, they should find it difficult to score in the paint here. The pace should be very slow. UC Irvine is 300th in tempo in the country. Fresno State is 344th. Take the under. |
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12-11-21 | TCU v. Texas A&M UNDER 130 | 68-64 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play* Both TCU and Texas A&M are defense oriented teams. TCU always plays slowly with Dixon as their head coach. TCU also ranks 7th in least fouls committed in the country. The Horned Frogs have played several very fast paced opponents of late (Pepperdine, Oral Roberts, Santa Clara) which has skewed their games higher scoring than they usually would be. Texas A&M has struggled badly on offense under Buzz Williams, but they will always compete on the defensive end. The Aggies excel at defending the paint. That's key because TCU likes to attack the basket. This one is played at Toyota Center which is known as an under venue because it is so spacious. Two defensive teams who play slowly in a hotly contested game on a neutral floor. Take the under. |
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12-11-21 | LSU v. Georgia Tech UNDER 140 | 69-53 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* LSU has what might be the most improved defense in the country. The Tigers rank first in the country in steal percentage on defense. They rank 4th in the country in block percentage defensively. Tari Eason and Efton Reid are elite shot blockers down low for the Tigers. Georgia Tech has been a good defense on a yearly basis under Josh Pastner. Georgia Tech has shot really well from three point range so far this year, but they are due for regression in that area. The Yellow Jackets prefer to play slowly as well. This game is on a neutral court which is also a bonus for the under. The LSU Tigers have played six straight games that have finished under this total. Take the under. |
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12-11-21 | Eastern Illinois v. Butler UNDER 125.5 | 54-66 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are awful offensively. In 4 of their 8 games against Division I opponents they have scored 46 points or less. They have yet to score more than 62 points against a D I opponent this year. Butler is 55th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs rank 346th in tempo. They will slow things down and make it very tough for Eastern Illinois to score. Butler has shown the willingness to win low scoring battles against lesser opponents like IUPUI and even Saginaw Valley State. Eastern Illinois plays very slowly as well. They defend the 3 point shot well and could slow Butler down at least for a while. I had this total several points lower than this. Take the under. |
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12-11-21 | Texas-San Antonio v. Sam Houston State UNDER 141.5 | 78-73 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UTSA Roadrunners and Sam Houston State Bearkats meet at Toyota Center in Houston on Saturday. This is a neutral court game. The under is 28-22 in college basketball games played at Toyota Center. Neutral court unders have been a strong angle in the past decade. Sam Houston State's defensive numbers are only mediocre, but they have played the #13 toughest slate of offenses this year. The Bearkats were good defensively last year, and they should be solid again this year. UTSA has been a high scoring team in recent years, but the Roadrunners no longer have Keaton Wallace and Jhivan Jackson who were their big scorers. I would expect some poor shooting numbers in this one. Take the under. |
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12-10-21 | Nets v. Hawks UNDER 228.5 | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a scorching hot shooting performance. Atlanta made 25/49 3 point field goal attempts in their win. That was the most made three-pointers on record for the Atlanta Hawks franchise. The Brooklyn Nets have been much better on defense this year. The primary improvement from them has been their 3 point defense. In fact, the Nets are number one in the NBA in 3 point defense. It isn't even close. The Nets are holding opponents to just 30.5% from 3 point range. No other team in the NBA is allowing less than 32.1% from beyond the arc. These two teams are both about average in pace in the league. This is a really high total in this year's scoring environment in the NBA. The Nets have had six straight games finish at 220 points or lower. Recency bias has this number very high because the Hawks have been on fire from three. Take the under. |
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12-09-21 | Monmouth v. St. John's OVER 151.5 | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 20 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The St. John's Red Storm have been in transition on 25% of their offensive possessions this year. That's 4th highest in the country. They'll press and try to get in transition as much as possible. Posh Alexander is very underrated and I think he can have a big game here against this Monmouth team. Monmouth loves to run and gun under King Rice as well. The Hawks have played a lot of teams who play slowly this year and that has some of their pace stats this year looking a bit skewed. They are the underdog here, and if they want to win they are likely going to have to score quite a few points. They'll look to attack the glass. Monmouth is shooting 81.5% from the free throw line. The Hawks have multiple guards who make a living at the line. St. John's is likely to get quite a few free throws because Monmouth has been among the top 50 in the country in fouls committed the last two years. St. John's is an above average team from the line as well. Fast paced all the way. Take the over. |
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12-08-21 | Samford v. Alabama State OVER 150.5 | 74-64 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs are going to always want to push the pace with Bucky McMillan as their head coach. McMillan wants to use the full court press and create transition opportunities. His teams will attack throughout the game. Alabama State's Mo Williams has his team playing very fast as well. The Hornets have already given up more than 90 points three times this year. Their defense isn't good and they put their opponent on the line too often. Samford is good at getting second chances on offense. Alabama State is a really bad defensive rebounding team. Samford has only played two teams this year who want to run at their pace with them. Those were the Belmont and McNeese State games. Both of those games finished at 158 points. I had this one projected at 155, so I see value. Take the over. |
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12-08-21 | Wagner v. Penn State UNDER 127.5 | 54-74 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions were 92nd fastest in the country in average possession length last year. They rank 352nd so far this year. Penn State has played against the 267th toughest slate of defenses (very easy schedule), while they have faced some good offenses. They have actually faced the 67th toughest slate of offenses. The Nittany Lions defense is likely better than their overall numbers appear. The offense is likely a bit worse. Wagner prefers to play at a slow pace too. The Seahawks struggled badly on offense against Seton Hall (just 0.83 points per possession). They won a 58-44 decision over VCU. Penn State should keep the pace slow and win with their defense. Wagner is often reliant on offensive rebounds, but Penn State is an elite defensive rebounding team. Take the under. |
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12-07-21 | Boise State v. CS-Northridge UNDER 127 | 74-48 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are being coached by Trent Johnson right now and he sure has put his stamp on this team as far as their pace of play. Northridge played very fast the last couple years. Not this year! Northridge is averaging 20.3 seconds per possession on offense. That is 354th fastest out of 358 teams in the country. They are playing at a snail's pace. Boise State ranks 48th in the country in defensive efficiency. Boise State does a great job protecting the rim (where Northridge tries to go often), and the Broncos are also great on the defensive glass. Boise State is the better team here, but they often struggle on offense. The Broncos really miss Derrick Alston who was their go to guy on offense last year. Take the under here. |
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12-07-21 | Eastern Illinois v. Missouri UNDER 129.5 | 44-72 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers have been a huge disappointment this year. They have lost at home to UMKC. They were blown out by 21 points at Liberty in their last game. Cuonzo Martin's team has major issues. They are still a good defense. They rank top 20 in the nation in defending shots attacking the rim. Their offense has been reliant on getting to the free throw line. Eastern Illinois ranks 56th in the nation at defending without fouling. Eastern Illinois is a bad team. The Panthers have major problems scoring. The Panthers have had 7 games against Division I opponents. They have been held to 56 points or less in 5 of those games. Their last five games against Division I opponents have finished with a total of 125 points or less. Missouri's length on defense should bother Eastern Illinois. Missouri has already shown they are willing to slow it down with opponents who want to stall. They won 54-37 over Northern Illinois. Eastern Illinois plays an extremely slow pace. Take the under. |
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12-07-21 | Texas Tech v. Tennessee UNDER 140.5 | 57-52 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers defense will be elite again this year. They ranked 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 3rd so far this year. Rick Barnes does have a lot of weaknesses, but his teams will fight hard on the defensive end. Texas Tech isn't as good as they were a few years ago on defense, but this is a still a quality defense. The Red Raiders rank 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Texas Tech's offense appears very good on the surface. A closer look shows they have played the single easiest slate of defenses in the nation according to KenPom. They haven't played a defense ranked in the top 75 in the nation all season. They now play a top five defense. Tennessee has been a team that goes through long scoring droughts in recent years. I think they'll do the same this year. This game is at Madison Square Garden. This has been the best under venue any college basketball games are played at. The shooting backdrop is a tough one here. Take the under. |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 43 | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 90 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* I had a lean to the under in this game even without weather concerns. With the weather forecast for Buffalo, I have to bet the under here. The weather forecast calls for 21 mph sustained winds at the start of this game with wind gusts of 30 mph through the game. There is currently about a 60 or 70% chance of snow showers during this game as well. The wind is the key, and the snow would be a nice bonus on top of it. The Patriots are a run heavy team, but the Bills rank second in the NFL in rushing defense. Buffalo's offense is best when going through the air, but the wind should make them more conservative and the Pats secondary is elite. This is a very big divisional game. Divisional unders have been very solid in the long run. Take the under here. *This number has moved down a bit as more people have seen the forecast here. I would still play this game down to 41* |
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12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 66 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos go to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in a key AFC West matchup on Sunday night. The Chiefs have struggled this year on the whole, but here they are back at the top of the division and coming off a bye week. Kansas City is laying a pretty big number here. The expectation is for Kansas City to play well off a bye thanks in large part to Andy Reid. I don't disagree with that, but if Kansas City does play from the lead it helps the under here. When Andy Reid coached teams are home favorites of 6 points or more- the under is a whopping 45-19 since 2005. The Chiefs are in that spot here. Kansas City moves much slower when they have the lead. Denver is likely to use the two high safety look and make Mahomes gradually move the ball down the field as well. The Chiefs defense has quietly been much better in the last few weeks. The weather calls for sustained winds of 14 mph and gusts of 22 mph for this one. Take the under. |
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12-05-21 | Kansas State v. Wichita State UNDER 130 | 65-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats and Wichita State Shockers get together for an intrastate rivalry at Intrust Arena. This is a neutral site arena and that is a net positive for the under. Kansas State runs pick and roll ball screens on offense 28% of the time. The Wildcats are up against a very tough Wichita State defense here. The Shockers have ranked top 15 in the nation defending pick and roll ball screens in two of the last three seasons. Wichita State and Kansas State both prefer to play at a slow pace, and both are clearly better on defense than on offense. Wichita State has seen 5 of their 7 games finish at 122 points or lower. Kansas State has seen 3 of their 6 games finish at 126 points or lower. This is the best defense Kansas State has played yet. Expect a hard fought contest where open shots are tough to come by. Take the under. |
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12-05-21 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 47 | 27-29 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Lions offense is just dreadful. It is terrible to begin with, and now they are without clearly their best offensive player in De'Andre Swift. How are they going to move the football consistently? I certainly wouldn't want to count on Jared Goff and this terrible roster of receivers. How bad has this Detroit offense been? They haven't topped 19 points in a single game since week one of the season. They are averaging 11.5 points per game in their last four contests. Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook. Mattison is a solid backup, but he doesn't have the same breakaway capabilities. The Vikings should be playing from the lead here, and I would expect them to keep things more conservative in this one. Zimmer is a coach who does slow the pace and run more with the lead. Take the under. |
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12-05-21 | Hamilton v. Toronto UNDER 45 | 27-19 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Hamilton Tiger Cats and Toronto Argonauts square off in the playoffs on Sunday in Toronto. These two teams know each other very well. This is the most important game between these two in quite some time. Which team will win and move on to the Grey Cup? The weather should play a factor here. Winds of 15 mph with snow changing to rain are forecast for this game. That is enough weather to really make a difference. It should make both teams more conservative. The two passing attacks have been inconsistent of late anyways, and now the weather will make it tougher. Both teams have a good pass rush and Oakman could dominate on the defensive front for Toronto. The last 3 games for Hamilton have finished with totals of: 35, 27, and 43 points. The last 3 games for Toronto have finished with totals of: 43, 43, and 20 points. Take the under here. |
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12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh OVER 71 | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Pitt Panthers offense has been fantastic all year. They rank 19th in the nation in yards per play. Pitt has been led by star quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett ranks 2nd in PFF passing grade in the country this year. He should be able to rip apart this Wake Forest defense. Wake Forest is 105th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. How has the Wake Forest defense fared against the top offenses they have played this year? They allowed 34 points against Louisville. They allowed 55 points against N Carolina. They allowed 48 points against a bad Clemson offense. They gave up 56 points to Army. They allowed 42 against NC State. Pitt ranks as the second best offense they have faced this year. Wake Forest ranks 4th in tempo in the country. Sam Hartman has had a special year as well. The Demon Deacons should be able to score quite a few on a Pitt defense that isn't nearly as good as they have been in past seasons. Pitt is 78th in opponent QBR and 58th in passing play success rate allowed. Wake Forest has a whopping 39 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. Two explosive offenses in what should be an exciting back and forth game. Overtime is a possibility in a game that should be tight as well. Take the over. |
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12-04-21 | UMass Lowell v. Merrimack UNDER 126 | 61-57 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors play a very unique style of basketball. They use a full court press to slow the game down. It's a zone full court press that makes the opponent make a bunch of passes to get the ball upcourt. Merrimack is a really tough matchup. The Warriors won 60-58 at UMass Lowell in their last meeting two years ago. These two teams are pretty similar to what they were that season as well. Merrimack's offense is very poor in the halfcourt. The Warriors end up with a lot of bad looks late in the shot clock. UMass Lowell is reliant on getting to the basket. That is extremely tough to do against the Merrimack zone defense. UMass Lowell has improved defensively and they are forcing turnovers at a high rate. Both teams should have a lot of wasted possession on offense and tough shots late in the clock. Take the under. |
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12-04-21 | High Point v. Elon UNDER 138.5 | 83-77 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The High Point Panthers have been a consistently weak offense under Tubby Smith. They want to slow the game down, and they are likely to be inefficient on the offensive end. High Point's defensive numbers this year don't look too impressive, but they have played some great offenses. In fact, according to KenPom they have faced the 13th toughest slate of offenses thus far. High Point held both Georgia State and Furman to 59 points in regulation, and those are two pretty good offenses. Elon has allowed 44% on 3 point jumpers from opponents this year. I think that regresses to the mean, and High Point is not a good outside shooting team. The pace here should be slow from both teams. Take the under. |
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12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 53 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in the Sun Belt Championship on Saturday afternoon. The first game between these two got to 54 points, but that was largely because of App State turnovers leading to short fields and quick scores. These are two good under teams on the season. The under is 7-5 in App State's games. The under is 9-3 in Louisiana's games. Levi Lewis has struggled at QB for Louisiana this year. The App State defense has really been strong at the end of the season. I expect Louisiana to have a conservative game plan and run the football quite a bit here. App State allowed 7.8 points per game in their last four games overall. Both teams have slowed their tempo down in recent games. I don't see a lot of possessions in this contest. The two teams run the ball on 60% and 61% of their offensive plays. A lot of moving clock in this one. Take the under. |
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12-01-21 | Utah v. USC UNDER 136.5 | 73-93 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Craig Smith is a very defensive-minded head coach. His teams at Utah State were elite on defense every year. Utah will fight very hard on the defensive end this season. Andy Enfield's teams are underrated on the defensive end. This Trojans team has all sorts of length on the floor at all times and they have been great defensively already this year. USC ranks 4th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Utah ranks 14th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. These are two teams that are much better on the defensive end than the offensive end. I think open shots will be tough to come by. Take the under. |
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12-01-21 | Miami-FL v. Penn State UNDER 140 | 63-58 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions have slowed their tempo down in a big way this season. With new coach Micah Shrewsberry at the helm, the Nittany Lions are using an average of 20.4 seconds of the shot clock each possession. That is 352nd out of 358 teams in the country. Penn State has been good at dictating the pace of the game. The Nittany Lions slowed their game against LSU down to a crawl, and LSU is a much better team than Miami. Miami plays relatively fast (144th in the nation), but the Hurricanes haven't played a team that plays as slowly as Penn State so far this season. Miami has already played some low scoring contests of late as well. Penn State has faced the 304th ranked defenses on the season so their offensive numbers are likely skewed a bit too positively on the season so far. Take the under. |
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12-01-21 | Columbia v. Maryland-Baltimore County OVER 145 | 60-98 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UMBC Retrievers are playing much faster under first year head coach Jim Ferry. Ferry wants this team to play even faster than they have so far this year. His history shows that the teams he coaches really want to get up the floor quickly. UMBC has had trouble scoring on the road, but in their home and neutral site games this year they have scored 85, 91, and 98 points. Columbia is a weak defensive team. The Lions have faced terrible offenses so far this year and they have still been overwhelmed. UMBC puts up a ton of 3's, so it is important that every single year under Coach Jim Engles Columbia has been below average in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Take the over here. |
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12-01-21 | La Salle v. Temple UNDER 136 | 57-73 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The La Salle Explorers have played 5 games this year. Only one of those games have gone over this total in regulation (that one was only 140 points). La Salle has played some very weak defensive teams and still has only topped 67 points in regulation once on the year. They have yet to top 70 points in regulation. This La Salle team is severely lacking offensive options. Temple is a scrappy team under Aaron McKie. They aren't very good on offense, but they work hard and do play pretty good defense. Temple and La Salle are both teams I view as high turnover teams. They should have quite a few wasted possessions through this game. This is a rivalry game in Philadelphia and I think the intensity level will be high. Take the under. |
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11-30-21 | Long Beach State v. San Diego State OVER 134.5 | 47-72 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs offense has been absolutely dreadful all season long. Why do I want to bet the over in this game? They have played a bunch of games on neutral courts which lowers scoring. They also have played much better defenses than they will be playing in this game. San Diego State hasn't gone up against a defense worse than 166th in the nation in defensive efficiency. All but one of their opponents has a defensive efficiency rank of #103 or better this year so far. What about Long Beach State's defense? They rank 303rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. San Diego State should see more of their shots drop against this terrible defense. Long Beach State ranks 12th in the nation in tempo on the offensive end. The 49ers are putting up shots quickly. San Diego State likes to play quickly as well. This is a very low total for a game that should be played at a quick pace. Take the over. |
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11-30-21 | North Dakota State v. Creighton UNDER 138 | 55-80 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This Creighton Blue Jays team isn't very similar to the Creighton teams of the last couple seasons. They lack the long range shooters. The trio of Zegarowski, Mahoney, and Jefferson are all gone for the Blue Jays. Creighton also ranks 269th in turnover percentage on offense in the country. They ranked 28th last season. There are a lot more wasted possessions for this team. The North Dakota State Bison rank 291st in tempo in the country. They'll try to slow this game down to a grind. Creighton has played noticeably slower this year than they did last year as well. Take the under. |
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11-30-21 | Minnesota v. Pittsburgh UNDER 129 | 54-53 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers have had a major pace change under new coach Ben Johnson. They are playing about 1.5 seconds per possession slower than they did a year ago under Richard Pitino. They also ranked 160th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They rank 16th in that same statistic this year. Pittsburgh ranks 300th in overall tempo. The Panthers have had virtually no offense all season. How bad has it been? Pitt has scored 63 points or less in 5 of their 6 games this year. That's despite facing teams like The Citadel, UNC Wilmington, and Towson. Minnesota is the highest ranked defense Pitt has faced so far this season. Minnesota has played some really weak defenses this year, and I think the Golden Gophers offense will struggle this year without Marcus Carr, Gabe Kalschuer, and some other key contributors from last year. Take the under. |
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11-29-21 | Norfolk State v. Grambling State UNDER 138.5 | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Grambling Tigers have scored 62 points or less in 4 of their 5 games vs. Division I teams this year. They haven't scored more than 74 points in any game all year. Norfolk State has played two games on a neutral court so far this year. Both of those games were very low scoring and featured some ugly shooting numbers. Grambling's only game on a neutral floor stayed under the total as well. The early season neutral court unders have done very well in the long run. This is a neutral court and it is a contest between two teams who have long term not been good long range shooters. Take the under. |
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11-28-21 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 215.5 | 105-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* These two teams have been excellent defensively. In fact, in their last 8 games, the Warriors and Clippers rank #1 and #2 in defensive efficiency. These are two well coached defensive teams. The Warriors and Clippers rank 15th and 16th in tempo in the last 8 games as well, so their pace isn't blazing fast by any means. This is an early tipoff on the West Coast and these weekend early tip offs on the West Coast have been very good unders in the past decade. Both of these teams are subpar when it comes to creating second chances. I think their initial shots will be covered better than normal in this one as well. Take the under. |
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11-27-21 | Northwestern v. Illinois UNDER 45 | 14-47 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats have a terrible offense this year. Northwestern ranks 112th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Wildcats have been able to break a long play here and there, but that should be very difficult to do against an Illinois defense that has been great at preventing big plays. Illinois is 3rd in the nation in defensive explosiveness allowed. They have a great safety in Kerby Joseph, and Walters has been a great defensive coordinator for the Fighting Illini. Illinois is very run heavy on offense. Northwestern will give up yards here, but they have been preventing big plays as well. The Wildcats rank 14th in the nation in defensive explosiveness. Illinois has slowed their tempo down as the year has gone on. A crazy 7 of the last 8 games for Illinois have stayed at or below 38 points. Last week, their game went over the total, but Iowa only put up 3.6 ypp and neither team got to 300 yards of total offense. Northwestern has scored 14 points or less in all but two of their Big Ten games. In both of the other two they only scored 21 points. Illinois should control the tempo and run the ball a lot here to keep the clock moving. Take the under. |
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11-27-21 | Houston v. Connecticut UNDER 55 | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars have a spot in the AAC Title game against Cincinnati. That game is next week and that is the big one for Houston. I wouldn't expect Houston to try to run up the score here, because it really doesn't matter to them. They just want to get a win and get out of here. UConn is admittedly very bad on defense. They are even worse on offense though. The Houston defense ranks 6th in the nation in success rate allowed. The Cougars have been dominant on the defensive side of the football. The weather here should play a role as well. Winds of about 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph are expected during this contest. That should make both teams more conservative. Take the under. |
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11-27-21 | Wake Forest v. Boston College UNDER 65 | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are playing for a spot in the ACC Title game. Wake Forest will have a pretty tough challenge against a Boston College team that has played much better with a healthy Phil Jurkovec. Wake Forest is a very fast paced team. They rank 4th in the nation in tempo. Wake Forest does rely on the passing game heavily. Sam Hartman has been very good this year. He is going up against a Boston College secondary that has been excellent this year though. Boston College ranks 14th in coverage grade at PFF. They have shut down some solid passing attacks this year. Boston College lacks a dynamic running game. That is important because Wake Forest has been terrible against the run this season. The Eagles should be able to move the ball here, but they aren't likely to get huge chunk plays as some other teams have been able to. The weather here is important as well. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph during this game. That is the kind of weather that makes a huge difference. There are strong angles for the under in this situation. I don't generally want to bet unders with Wake Forest. In this case with them playing for so much and in extreme wind, I'll do so. Take the under. |
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11-26-21 | St. Joe's v. Georgetown UNDER 145.5 | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The St. Joe's Hawks were 74th and 68th quickest in average possession length the last two years. Billy Lange's team has slowed down considerably this year. St. Joe's ranks just 214th quickest in the country so far this year. I think Lange realizes he doesn't have the firepower right now to compete with better teams. Georgetown has a lot of length and they will make shots in the paint tough to come by. The Hoyas rank 51st in half court defense rank so far this year. St. Joe's has only been in transition on 7% of their offensive possessions on the year. This game is being played on a neutral court in Anaheim. This is a unique venue that has a tough backdrop for shooters. Both games stayed under here last night. Take the under. |
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11-26-21 | Pistons v. Clippers UNDER 206.5 | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers host the Detroit Pistons in a strange early Friday afternoon tilt on the West Coast. The teams were off for Thanksgiving, but they'll be back at it early on Friday. Early games have been good under bets in the NBA in the past, and early games on the West Coast have been even better. Detroit is one of the worst offenses in the NBA. They rank second worst in offensive efficiency. The Clippers rank second best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Detroit should have trouble scoring in this one. The Clippers have shown they are willing to let off the gas when playing with a lead late, and they are clearly favorites in this one. Take the under. |
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11-26-21 | UNLV v. Air Force UNDER 50.5 | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* These two teams rank 120th (Air Force) and 122nd (UNLV) in pace of play. The tempo will be very slow here. Air Force runs the ball on 87.4% of their offensive plays. They will be very run heavy again here. UNLV is a bad team, but they have done one thing well this year. UNLV has a good defensive line. They have the 24th ranked run defense in the country according to PFF. UNLV has a top 15 stuff rate in the country. They won't shut down the Air Force triple option, but I think they can do a better job here than most would believe. The UNLV offense is really bad. The Rebels would prefer to run the ball or throw short passes. The weakness of the Air Force defense is their secondary, but I don't think UNLV can take advantage of that weakness. Air Force has a great pass rush, and UNLV has allowed 36 sacks already this year. Air Force will be in the backfield here. Air Force has seen 7 of their last 8 games finish regulation with a combined total of 48 points or lower. In fact, 5 of those 8 games finished with a total of 41 points or less. Air Force should have the lead burning up the clock late in this game to salt it away and that is a big positive for the under. Take the under. |
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11-24-21 | UC San Diego v. Montana UNDER 142.5 | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies aren't a very good offensive team on an annual basis, but they are always good on defense. Montana has shot the ball better than expected this year, and they have been worse on defense than normal. I think that regresses to the mean. The website Shot Quality analyzes quality of shots taken by each teams and spits out what the score should have been. Montana's last three games have finished 38 points higher in all than they should have been. That has made this total be set pretty high for one of their games. UC San Diego has been drawing an insane amount of fouls so far this year. No one in the country had a free throw rate as high last year as UC San Diego has this year so far. That should regress to the mean and help lower scoring as well. Take the under. |
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11-24-21 | Jacksonville v. Minnesota UNDER 132 | 44-55 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers are a completely different team this year under Ben Johnson instead of Richard Pitino. They have slowed their pace down drastically. Minnesota has seen 3 of their 4 games finish regulation with 127 points or less. Jacksonville is playing at one of the slowest tempos of any team in the country. They are using up 21 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. They have a new coach this year as well and they have a new slower tempo. The oddsmakers typically need a bit to adjust to the new pace of teams like this. Jacksonville turns the ball over a bunch which is just wasted possessions. Minnesota doesn't get out in transition much at all. Take the under. |
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11-24-21 | Western Illinois v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 150.5 | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Western Illinois Leathernecks have played a bunch of fast paced teams so far this year. Their offensive average length of possession is slightly slower than the average team in the country so far this year. The website Shot Quality takes the quality of shots and spits out projected final scores compared to what the actual score was. Western Illinois had a game against DePaul with a final of 84-80, but SQ thinks the final should have been 70-64. Their last game against N Kentucky was also three points higher than it should have been. Eastern Michigan has been very good defensively against shots from beyond the arc. Western Illinois takes a bunch of three pointers, and I think they'll be contested more in this game than they have been in most other games for Western Illinois. This is a high total for a game with two teams who have mediocre offenses at best. Take the under. |
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11-23-21 | Northern Colorado v. San Jose State UNDER 141.5 | 74-75 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The San Jose State Spartans have a new coach in Tim Miles. Miles is a good coach and I trust him to help this team improve over time. Miles has this team shooting a bunch of long range jumpers early in the season. They have been falling more than expected thus far, but I don't think the 3 point success continues. According to the website Shot Quality, the Spartans have outperformed their expected point total regarding the average shot of that quality this year. They have scored 251 points so far this year. According to Shot Quality, they should have scored only 229 points. Northern Colorado's defense is a tough matchup for San Jose State. Northern Colorado excels at running opponents off the 3 point line. Coach Smiley has continued the tradition started by Jeff Linder. N Colorado is a top 60 or 70 three point defense every year. Northern Colorado is a good under team because they don't get many second chance opportunities and they don't give up many offensive rebounds either. Both of these teams have faced a much tougher slate of offenses than defenses so far this year. Their defensive numbers should improve, while their offensive numbers are inflated. Take the under. |
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11-23-21 | George Mason v. Nevada OVER 136.5 | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack are the favorites here, and they want to run and gun. Nevada gave up a whopping 102 points against South Dakota State yesterday. Nevada has had at least 143 total points in every game they have played this year, and this line makes very little sense to me. George Mason is an above average team in terms of tempo. Nevada is a top 50 team in terms of tempo. The pace will be very quick here. I had this total projected at 144 so I see this one as pretty far off. Take the over. |
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11-22-21 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. Northern Arizona OVER 140.5 | 82-80 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* These two teams just played on Saturday at a neutral site. The final score was 89-87. The tempo in the game was a blazing fast 78 possessions. Now, they go to Northern Arizona where the Lumberjacks will be playing on their home court and the total is set this low. Northern Arizona is pushing the pace more this year since they have Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Cone. The Lumberjacks have been a bottom 50 defense in the country nearly every single year in recent memory. UT Rio Grande Valley is slightly better on offense this year, and they are clearly worse defensively. Matt Figgers is a great offensive minded coach. Take the over. |
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11-22-21 | Nevada v. South Dakota State UNDER 162.5 | 75-102 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The South Dakota State Jackrabbits and Nevada Wolf Pack meet in a neutral site contest on Monday night. Neutral site unders in the first 8 games of the season have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years overall. This has been an excellent angle over a long period of time. Both of these teams shoot a lot of long range jumpers. Those long range jumpers can be a bit harder to hit in a neutral site gym. This is such a high total that I have to back the under. An 81-79 game is under the total. Take the under here. |
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11-22-21 | Drexel v. Tulane UNDER 133.5 | 87-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons and Tulane Green Wave meet on Monday afternoon in the Bahamas at a neutral site. Neutral site unders in the first 8 games of the season have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years overall. This has been an excellent angle over a long period of time. Tulane plays a lot of zone and uses some full court pressure to actually slow the pace of the game down. Drexel and Tulane are both very good in transition defense so easy buckets should be hard to come by here. The long trip and a new gym is a positive for the under. Take the under. |
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11-21-21 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 47 | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* We're going to get either Colt McCoy (seems increasingly likely) or a badly dinged up Kyler Murray in this one. Hopkins is out for the Cardinals as well and that makes this offense a much less intimidating task for the Seattle defense. Arizona had just 3.2 yards per play last week against Carolina. Seattle's offense put up 0 points last week against Green Bay. I certainly expect them to be much better here, but this Seattle offensive line is a major problem and their running game isn't good at all either. Russell Wilson isn't 100 percent healthy. The Cardinals defense is an above average unit as well. Take the under here. |
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11-21-21 | Bengals v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | 32-13 | Loss | -104 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Las Vegas Raiders have continually given up big plays in the passing game. Gus Bradley is unwilling to go away from his normal scheme to use the two high safety look that has been great against Patrick Mahomes and others in the NFL who are great with the deep ball. Mahomes burned the Raiders last week. I think Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing attack can do the same. Burrow has three great options at wide receiver in Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Chase and Higgins are both excellent deep threats. The Bengals defense looked good early in the season, but the truth has come out in recent weeks. This is still a below average defense that is very poor in the secondary. They struggle against good tight ends, which makes the Raiders a tough matchup for them. The Bengals last 3 games have sailed over this total. This one is played in the dome and conditions will be ideal for these passing games. Take the over. |
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11-21-21 | Houston Baptist v. Denver UNDER 143.5 | 61-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Baptist Huskies have decided to slow things down this year. They are playing 3.5 seconds per possession slower than they did a year ago. It makes sense because this team just wasn't seeing any success. They might as well try something different. Denver is playing differently under a new coach as well. He has them focused on defense, something that has been a major weakness in recent seasons for the Pioneers. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 75 in the nation in average possession length (so they are among the 75 slowest out of 358 in the country). Denver hasn't played a game that finished with more than this total all season including their games against Division II schools. Take the under. |
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11-21-21 | Lions v. Browns UNDER 43.5 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 15 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total of the Week* The Detroit Lions plan to start back Tim Boyle in this one. While Jared Goff isn't a good NFL quarterback, it is a step down from Goff to Boyle. The game plan should be extremely conservative with Boyle under center. In fact, in recent weeks Dan Campbell has already been running the football a lot more. Swift had a whopping 33 carries for Detroit last week. Baker Mayfield is dinged up and far less than 100 percent. The Browns are highly likely to want to run the football a lot in this one and get out of here with a win over a weak team. The weather for this game should change things a bit. This is a stadium that is impacted a lot by wind gusts from the lake. Rain showers are expected with 15 mph wind and gusts over 20 mph. Take the under here. |
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11-21-21 | Texans v. Titans UNDER 45 | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans offense hasn't been nearly as good as you would have thought by the final scores in their last two games. The Titans only gained 195 yards in their win over the Rams. They had just 3.5 yards per play. In their win over the Saints, the Titans gained only 264 yards and 4.6 yards per play. The Titans offense is still decent, but Henry is a huge key and defenses can play them differently now. Houston's offense has been weak all season and they tend to be very conservative. The Texans have been especially bad offensively on the road throughout the course of the year. The weather for this game calls for a temperature in the 50's and steady rain with winds of 10-15 mph. That should be enough to make the two teams even more conservative. Take the under. |
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11-21-21 | Saints v. Eagles UNDER 42.5 | 29-40 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints defense ranks first in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run, and it isn't particularly close. That's important since the Philadelphia Eagles have gone extremely run heavy in recent weeks. Philadelphia is a solid running team and they'll have some success here, but big gainers shouldn't be expected. They'll also likely use up a bunch of time and have to kick some field goals. The Saints offense is a shell of its former self. New Orleans will throw in some gimmicks here and there but they just don't have the playmakers to be above average in any facet of the game right now. The Eagles defense is top ten against the run as well, and the Saints are going to play conservatively here also. Take the under. |
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11-21-21 | Temple v. Elon UNDER 135.5 | 75-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Neutral court unders early in the season have been great long term (54.9% in the last 15 years). Early tip offs at neutral court sites have been even better in the long haul. This is about as early of a start time as you will ever see in college basketball. Temple is a solid defensive team that works hard on that end under Coach McKie, but they have no real identity on the offensive end. Elon is a good defensive rebounding team. Limiting Temple to one shot is key and I think they can do solid in that area. Elon's offense relies too much on questionable mid range jumpers. Take the under. |
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11-20-21 | Baylor v. Kansas State UNDER 50 | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 121 h 29 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Baylor ranks 108th in the country in tempo. The Bears have played very slowly all year and I would expect the same here. Kansas State ranks 128th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats want to control the ball and use up the time. Baylor just played a very low scoring game against Oklahoma which tells you quite a bit about the Bears. Dave Aranda is improving this Baylor defense throughout the course of the season. Kansas State's has drastically improved in recent weeks. The Wildcats have given up just 13.0 points per game in their last three contests (TCU, Kansas, and West Virginia). Baylor runs the ball on 61% of their offensive plays. Kansas State runs the ball on 59% of their offensive plays. There should be a lot of running clock through this game. These are the 2nd and 4th ranked defense in the Big 12. They rank 2nd and 3rd in the Big 12 in rushing defense. Neither passing attack is known for big plays. They do a lot of short passes to keep the defense honest. Take the under here. |
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11-20-21 | Illinois v. Iowa UNDER 38.5 | 23-33 | Loss | -109 | 117 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini want to run the football early and often. Bret Bielema's team has been running the ball on more than 65% of their offensive plays of late. Iowa allows only 3.00 yards per carry which is 7th best in the country. Illinois has virtually no passing game. Iowa has played two quarterbacks, but neither one of them are very good. The Illinois defense has improved a lot through the season. This group has a better defensive coaching staff this season. This is an extremely low total, but it is very low for good reasons. Illinois has played in 7 straight games that have finished under this low total! Iowa has seen 5 of their 10 games this year stay under this very low total. Both teams play slowly and are conservative on offense. Both defenses rank in the top 15 in the country in preventing big plays. A lot of running clock and the defenses having the upper hand. Take the under. |
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11-20-21 | Florida State v. Boston College OVER 54.5 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Boston College Eagles have Phil Jurkovec back and it makes a world of a difference for this offense. Boston College looked like an offensive machine last week in their win over Georgia Tech. They put up 41 points on 8.9 yards per play. Jurkovec had an average depth of target of more than 18 yards per pass, so they were really being aggressive and taking shots down the field. Zay Flowers is a mismatch for most teams, and I don't think Florida State has an answer for him. Jordan Travis has been playing well for the Florida State offense. Travis is a good runner, but he has really matured as a passer as well. Travis led Florida State to 424 yards and 31 points last week in a win over Miami. He has been making good decisions with the ball. Boston College's offensive numbers for the year are misleading since Jurkovec was out for much of the season. This is a completely different offense with him on the field. This should be a back and forth game and overtime is even a possibility with a spread of less than a field goal here. Take the over. |