*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats and Vanderbilt Commodores meet on Sunday. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in overall tempo. 

Kansas State mixes up defenses, and opponents are taking more time to shoot it against Kansas State than any other team in the country.

Vanderbilt was a very slow paced team last year, and they are that again this season.

The Commodores were more efficient on defense than offense last year, and they are again so far this year. Bruce Weber's teams are consistently better on defense than they are on offense.

This total has moved up from the open, and that gives us value on the under. Look for a tightly played game where the pace stays very slow.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Minnesota defense is equally strong against the pass and the run. There is no weakness in this unit. Atlanta's defense is surprisingly 10th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They are clearly improved on defense from last season. Also, Atlanta's offensive efficiency isn't quite what it was a year ago. Matt Ryan does miss Kyle Shanahan. 

Neither of these teams play particularly fast. The Vikings are a touch faster than the league average and the Falcons are a bit slower than the league average. 

I expect both offenses will find it harder to break big plays than normal in this one. This is a pretty high total in today's NFL. 

This is a measuring stick game for both teams. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs just played three weeks ago. This one means a whole lot more. Auburn blasted Georgia in the first game. Georgia's coaches and players weren't very happy with the chatting from the Auburn after that last meeting. They felt Auburn took advantage of the opportunity and ran up the score and then talked about it after the game.

I fully expect to see an extremely motivated Georgia Bulldogs defense in this one. Georgia's defense was bullied on the line by the Tigers offensive front in the first meeting. Don't expect that again here.

Auburn runs the ball on 64% of their offensive plays. The Tigers will be without Kamryn Pettway due to injury, and star running back Kerryon Johnson will likely try to play through a shoulder injury. 

Georgia runs the ball on 69.5% of their offensive plays. The Bulldogs go up against an Auburn defense that has been elite all year against the run. 

Auburn plays at an average tempo. Georgia plays at one of the five slowest tempo's in the country. This much running with a relatively slow tempo should mean a small amount of possessions. 

This game means everything to both teams and intensity usually helps the defense more than the offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Little Rock Trojans have played six games against Division One teams this year. Only one of those has gone over this posted total. That one finished at 142 points. 

Oral Roberts has played 7 Division One teams this year. None of them have ranked in the bottom 100 in tempo. They have played a bunch of fast paced teams. That changes in this one and the line is inflated here. 

Little Rock likes to run the clock and try to win low scoring games. Oral Roberts plays at a slow tempo as well. Both of these teams have been inefficient on offense so far this year. Both have been really sloppy with the basketball.

This total is several points too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Georgia State Panthers have absolutely no running game. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, Georgia State has been the worst running offense in the country. One-dimensional offenses are a lot easier to game plan for. Idaho's pass rush has been solid this year, and I think the Vandals can get some pressure on the quarterback here.

Idaho's offense is lost without quarterback Matt Linehan. How have they done without him the last couple weeks? They scored only 7 points against lowly Coastal Carolina two weeks ago. They scored just 10 points against a terrible New Mexico State defense last week. Idaho isn't any good at running the football, but with their third string quarterback in for this one they are likely to have to try to run the football. Idaho's starting running back Isaiah Saunders is questionable with an injury here too. I don't think Idaho will be able to do much on offense in this one.

Both teams have played quite a few very low scoring games this year. 

The under is 4-0 in Idaho's last 4. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. The under is 4-0 in GA State's last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on turf. A 19-0 angle.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* The Manhattan Jaspers were without best scorer Rich Williams on Friday and he is questionable here. Manhattan hasn't been good on offense with him, and without him they really struggle.

The Jaspers have slowed their tempo down drastically this season. They went from ranking in the top 35% of teams in pace of play to ranking in the bottom 25% of teams this year. 

Towson always prefers a slow pace, and the Tigers are led by a strong defense. 

This game is played in Northern Ireland on a neutral site. This is a positive for the under. Shooting percentages tend to be lower at neutral sites. There is a massive time change which doesn't help either.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Friday Night PAC 12 Title Game CASH* The Stanford Cardinal were beaten 42-24 by USC earlier this year. That Stanford team was a lot different than the current version though. David Shaw's team has gotten a solid amount better on defense throughout the year. Their defensive efficiency rank was in the range of #90 early in the season. If you look at the last five weeks only, it is #41. 

USC struggles at times to protect Darnold, and the Cardinal have been good at pressuring the quarterback this year. I think they'll get in the backfield and disrupt things quite a bit during this contest.

The Stanford offense has gotten far less efficient in recent weeks. Bryce Love is playing hobbled and this is a very conservative offense. Stanford ranks 120th in the nation in pace of play. They will look to run the football and use up the clock and keep the USC offense off the field. Since their loss to USC on September 9, only one Stanford game has gone over this total. That was against UCLA and their terrible defense. 

The under is 7-0 in Stanford's last 7 following a win. The under is 4-0 in USC's last 4 following a bye week. An 11-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights are without BJ Taylor right now. Taylor is the most important guy to this UCF offense. Without him, they were a complete mess last season, and it appears the same is true this year. UCF has scored 45 and 43 points in their last two games against West Virginia and St. John's. 

UCF will be great on defense again this year with Tacko Fall manning the middle and swatting shots away left and right. 

Missouri will play at a slow pace under Cuonzo Martin. His teams are always halfcourt oriented teams. Missouri has played several teams that want to run a lot this year, but UCF is similar in that they prefer a halfcourt game.

Look for good defense from both teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The South Carolina Gamecocks always play great defense under Frank Martin. Martin's teams play relatively quick on offense, but they aren't very efficient, especially since they lost Thornwell from last year's team. Sindarius Thornwell was the guy everything went through on offense for the Final 4 Gamecocks last year.

Temple has shot the ball really well this year, but this is an excellent defense they will go up against in this one.

Additionally, this game is being played at Madison Square Garden, which is easily the best under arena in basketball. The sight lines are tough here, and college kids have consistently had trouble with shooting in this arena in the long run. Neutral site unders early in the year is a profitable angle, and when it is MSG that is a big bonus.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston is an excellent defensive team. They are great at shutting down the opposition and making them take tough shots on the perimeter. 

Western Carolina was 348th in offensive efficiency out of 351 teams in the country last year. They are just slightly better this year, and they were held to 57 and 51 points by Clemson and Cincinnati.

C of C is without their best offensive player in Brantley, and that has caused them to slow their tempo even more in recent games. I think they win comfortably here and the defense leads the way.

I'll fade the early line move here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are pushing the pace as much as ever under Coach Simon this year. Southern Utah continues to be awful on defense as well. Southern Utah ranks 347th in defensive efficiency so far this year out of 351 teams in the country. Where were they the last two years? They were 350th and 349th. Awful. Southern Utah has a habit of fouling at an epic rate. They tend to do this when losing in the second half, and there can be some very high scores in the second half in their games.

Pepperdine is one of those teams that tends to play to the pace of their opponent, and in this case that should mean a very quick tempo. Pepperdine is great at getting to the line and they should get a lot of trips there in this one. 

A quick tempo and a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Penn has changed their offense this year. They are no longer a guard oriented team. They look to get the ball inside and that takes more time. Villanova has more shot blockers and length on the inside than just about anyone, and that should make it hard on Penn's offense.

The Wildcats are excellent on defense, and they prefer to play at a slow pace if they can. Villanova played some really high scoring games against teams in the top 20 in tempo early this season. Penn isn't going to want to run here, and I think the tempo stays slow.

This is one where the spread is big and it reduces the risk of a foul fest late. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* James Madison ranked in the bottom 30 in the country in pace of play last year. They should end up near the bottom in tempo again this year. 

George Mason lost their top two scoring options from last year. Marquis Moore was the guy that everything ran through, and without him I expect their offensive efficiency numbers to dip significantly this year. George Mason is playing significantly slower than last year, and that makes sense with less scoring options.

George Mason has only played one game that has gone above this total in regulation this year. James Madison has played a couple very fast paced teams and that has skewed this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NHL FIRE on the ICE* The Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights battle on Tuesday night in Las Vegas.

These two teams will provide us with a lot of excitement here. Both teams like to play with a lot of pace and will really pepper the opposing goal.

Looking at the Golden Knights first, the way this team has played at home here in 2017 is quite impressive. Vegas has averaged 4.40 goals per home game this season and while some felt it was a fluke to start the season, the sample size has hit 10 games now. That is not mistake, as this team likes to get up and down the ice quickly. As a team, they’re giving up 3.0 goals per game so far this season, as they just can’t seem to keep their defense healthy, especially in net.

Dallas has a young core that provides a ton of energy from their end too. The Stars are putting in nearly 3 goals per game themselves and they have been one of the best power play teams in the NHL. The Stars have hit the Over in 8 of 12 road games this season as well.

Vegas has hit the Over in 14 of the 20 games they’ve played this season with the Stars cashing the Over in 5 of their last 7.

All signs point to a high scoring affair here.

Take Over.

*3 Star College Hoops Red HOT CASH* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have played significantly slower so far this year. Wake Forest has shot the ball at a very high percentage, but they haven't played against any good defenses.

Illinois looks to push the tempo under Brad Underwood, but I don't think they'll be all that efficient on offense when playing against decent opponents this year. Illinois hasn't played anyone ranked in the top 120 in the country in defensive efficiency. Most of the teams they have played have ranked in the bottom 100 in the country in defensive efficiency.

Illinois has played only one game this year that has gone over this total and that was 165 points against Marshall. Marshall ranks in the top five in the country in tempo. 

Wake Forest has only played one game that has gone over this total as well, and that was their first game of the season.

This should be a relatively high scoring game, but this number has gotten awfully high. I'll take the under at this level.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Red Hot CASH* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies are coming off two miserable shooting performances. They were playing at Syracuse and at Kansas in those two games. This is a massive step down in class. 

Oral Roberts made only 13/41 two pointers in their last game. They shot 33% from the floor overall in a loss to Penn State. 

When two teams are coming off extremely low shooting percentage, I like to look for overs in the next game. Why? The market usually overreacts. 

This total has already been pushed down a few points in the market. 

Oakland is playing at an extremely quick tempo this year. Oral Roberts slows the game down a bit, but they are terrible on the defensive glass and Oakland should get second chance and transition opportunities here. 

Oakland should be good on offense overall this year, and this is a pretty low number for a game they are involved in. Neither defense is very good.

The over is 8-1 in Oral Roberts' last 9 home games.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Green Bay Packers are averaging only 13.4 points per game since Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury. Brett Hundley hasn't been the answer, and the offensive line is banged up. The Packers are also without Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery is doubtful. This offense is badly beaten up. 

Pittsburgh's defense has been consistently very good this year. The Steelers have ranked in the top five or six in nearly every defensive statistic this season. I don't see them giving up much here.

The Green Bay defense has been improved in recent weeks. Ben Roethlisberger has been sick this week and is listed as probable here, but he's less than 100 percent. The Steelers offensive line hasn't been getting as much of a push in the running game this season.

Both of these teams have been slowing much slower than the league average in pace of play.

In the last 3 years, NFL home teams who are favored by 13 points or more at home with a total of less than 48 points have seen the under go a perfect 9-0. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 games after throwing for 250 yards or more last game. A 14-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Red HOT CASH* The Eagles are coming off a really big win at Dallas last weekend. That's a rivalry game where Philly puts a bunch into that contest. It would be easy for the Eagles to let up a little here.

Chicago isn't very good on offense. They are extremely reliant on the running game. The strength of the Eagles defense is their front seven. Philadelphia is very likely to stack up the box and dare Chicago to beat them through the air. The Eagles pass rush is elite and the Bears offensive line has struggled in pass protection.

The Bears defense is really underrated. This is a unit that has kept the Bears in a lot of games this season. The Eagles will move the ball here as they always do, but I think the Bears slow them down and hold them to field goals more often than normal.

The weather here looks less than ideal. Winds of 13 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph are forecast for this contest. That's a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats and Arizona State Sun Devils meet on Saturday in what should be a game filled with tons of big plays for the offenses. 

Arizona's offense ranks first in the nation in yards per carry at a whopping 7.03 per attempt. Arizona State's defense is 109th in the country and allowing 5.11 yards per carry. Adjusted for strength of schedule played, Arizona State's run defense ranks in the bottom ten in the country.

Arizona State's passing attack has a big edge on this Arizona Wildcats secondary. Arizona has allowed more than 40 points in 4 of their last 7 games. The Wildcats are giving up huge plays by the bunches this year.

The last five games between these two teams have all gone over this number. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas State Wildcats are two of the rare teams in the Big 12 who play slowly and look to control the ball through their run game. Both teams are without their starting quarterback and that should make them more conservative.

I see a game where both teams play slowly and this one is decided by a small margin. We get a little line value from the fact that both teams have played several high scoring games against opponents like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State who are tremendous offensively. There is no great offense in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense is much better now that star quarterback Brent Stockstill is back on the field. While Richie James is injured, Ty Lee has turned into a star at receiver and MTSU has a big advantage over an ODU defensive secondary that has struggled all season long.

Old Dominion's offense is certainly better now that Ray Lawry is healthy. ODU has gotten much more balanced on offense in recent weeks since the passing game finds openings because teams are now having to stack up the box to slow the running game once again. ODU should be able to do enough here.

Both offenses have rated much higher in efficiency metrics in the last few weeks. I think this number would have been fair if Stockstill and Lawry weren't back, but with them in the fold I'll take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers have one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt. Appalachian State is a team that likes to run the ball as often as possible. They often go on long drives that eat up a bunch of time.

Georgia State is dead last in rushing efficiency on offense in the country. Georgia State has to throw it, but Appalachian State has the best secondary in the Sun Belt. I expect Georgia State to have trouble moving the ball here. Georgia State has scored 21 points or less in 5 of their 9 games this year. 

Look for both defenses to match up well in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Boston College has picked up their pace significantly this season. Syracuse is one of the five fastest teams in the country. This number is awfully low based on those tendencies to hurry and get in as many plays as possible.

Boston College and Syracuse got to 48 points last year, but Boston College is playing at a much faster tempo this year, and the Eagles defense has been struggling in recent weeks.

This one has the potential to be a very close game where both teams score plenty.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CBB Late Night BAILOUT* The Texas State Bobcats are one of the slowest paced teams in the country every single year. This year won't be any different. Danny Kaspar's teams often don't have a ton of speed and athleticism, so they utilize a game plan that reduces the amount of possessions and forces their opponent into a style they aren't typically playing.

Canisius generally plays to the pace of their opponent. They play a lot of teams who like to run, so their tempo looks faster than it would in a different conference. They aren't playing a team who runs here.

This a neutral site game. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Blues and Nashville Predators are divisional rivals. These two teams know each other well. In 7 of their last 8 games against each other the final score has been a combined 5 goals or fewer. In Rinne and Allen, we have two of the best netminders in the game. These are guys who can dominate the game at any given time. 

The familiarity between these two teams helps with a low scoring game. We've typically seen a total of 5 when these two meet, but these two have had some high scoring games recently so it is 5.5.

Look for another hard fought matchup between these two.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CBB Early Bird Special* Northeastern lost their top two scorers from last year's team. The Huskies always play at a slower than average tempo, and so far this year they are playing even slower than normal. In some years, they have been efficient on offense, but this year they are really struggling shooting the ball.

Utah State is happy to play at a slow pace as well. The Aggies aren't a team that looks for transition opportunities very often at all. 

This a neutral site game where both teams aren't accustomed to the gym. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There are 351 teams in Division One College basketball. These two teams are ranked 349th and 350th in terms of amount of time they use up of the shot clock. Basically, these are two teams who want to use up the clock as much as possible. When they get together, the tempo should stay very slow.

This a neutral site game. Neutral site unders in the first month of the season are 56.5% in the last ten years when the total is 135.5 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Washington Eagles have only played one game this year that has gone over this total. That was against UNLV. UNLV is playing extremely fast this year. 

Eastern Kentucky has had 3 games against Division I opponents, and 2 of the 3 were under this number.

This game is being played on a neutral floor. Neutral floor unders are 56.5% when the number is 135.5 or higher in the first month of the season. These are unique shooting backdrops and that usually lowers the shooting numbers a bit. 

Neither of these teams have been pushing the tempo this year. This number is several points high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces have consistently slowed the pace of the game down. Evansville hasn't played a game this year that went above 140. The Purple Aces have played their last three games to a final total of 123, 116, and 127. 

Fresno State has shot the ball really well in their first couple games. Fresno State has consistently been a team that struggles shooting the ball in the past couple years. The Bulldogs are likely to regress to the mean on offense again this year. 

This game is played on a neutral floor. The under is 56.5% in the past ten years on a neutral floor when the total is 135.5 or higher.

I think the defenses play well here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Two teams known for playing slowly and controlling the basketball meet on Monday night. Wisconsin has less good offensive options than they have had in recent years. The Badgers will defend well though, and they do a nice job of defending without fouling. 

The Baylor Bears are always near the top of the charts in shot blocking. They make everyone work hard for their baskets in the paint. Baylor typically relies heavily on offensive rebounds, but Wisconsin is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country.

This total has been pushed up from its opening number, and I see that as a mistake.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have been a really bad shooting team in recent years. They don't play very fast either. Cleveland State is clearly better on the defensive end than they are on offense right now. This Cleveland State team scored only 38 points against Rutgers. They scored only 57 points against Akron in a game with 82 possessions! 

The move upward on this total doesn't make any sense to me. Until these teams prove it consistently to me, I'm going to see them as teams that have to make the game ugly to win on a regular basis.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a neutral court game and those are much more favorable to the under in the early season. In fact, neutral court unders with a total of 135.5 or higher are 56.5% in the last ten years.

Wyoming plays very quickly, but they aren't all that efficient on offense. The Cowboys are good on defense and they have multiple shot blockers.

South Dakota State plays at a fairly average pace. They are good offensively, but Wyoming is much better than most defenses they play against. 

It isn't common to see a posted total set this high without both teams being excellent on offense and both teams running.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots have the number one ranked pass offense in terms of efficiency. Who has the worst ranked pass defense in the NFL in terms of efficiency? The Oakland Raiders. Tom Brady should have a big game here, and I expect New England to be put up a big number.

Oakland's pass rush has been poor this year, and New England has been blocking well. When Brady has this much time to throw against a weak secondary, that generally equals great things for the Patriots offense.

Derek Carr has looked healthier of late, and the Patriots pass defense ranks 30th. Carr should hook up with his receivers in the open field several times as well.

The elevation is a positive in Mexico City in my mind for points. Tired defenses generally lead to blown assignments. 

I like this to be a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have played four games at home this year. The highest scoring game was 23-17 (in overtime) against Pittsburgh and 23-17 against Atlanta in the season opener.

The Bears have an ultra-conservative offense now. They aren't taking many chances with Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears have the second highest running plays as a percentage of their overall offensive plays in the NFL behind only the Jaguars. 

Detroit's secondary isn't very good, but the Lions rank top ten in the NFL at stopping the run. Detroit should be ready for the running game here.

Chicago's defense has been solid in all ways this year. Detroit is awfully one-dimensional with the passing game, and with the weather forecast here that could be trouble.

There is a storm coming through Chicago this weekend and 20 mph winds are forecast at Soldier Field on Sunday. That will impact the game and make throwing more difficult and both teams will likely run more than normal.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The weather forecast in Cleveland calls for 25 mph winds coming off the lake during this game. There is also a chance of snow showers throughout this one. This will be really bad conditions, and history has shown that conditions like this are great for the under.

Winds of 10 mph or more with totals of 35 or higher and a temperature of 78 or lower- the under is 57.5% in the last ten years. What about at Cleveland? In Cleveland, the under is 10-2 in the last 12 games with the wind at 10 mph or greater and temperatures of below 50 degrees. The wind changes the game at First Energy Stadium more than the average stadium in the league.

50% of the tickets written to this point are on the under, but 90% of the money is on the under. The sharps love this one and I see the value too.

The Jaguars will run the ball a ton here, but Cleveland ranks top five in the NFL in rushing defense. 

The under is 4-0 in the Jags last 4 vs. the AFC. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 250 yards or more passing. The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 on grass. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Boise State Broncos offense has really gotten it in gear of late. Air Force is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Falcons are allowing 6.51 yards per play, which is 118th out of 130 teams in college football.

Boise State's offense led the comeback vs. Colorado State last week. They should put up a big number here. 

Air Force's offense is good enough to put up some points, especially as they play faster when behind.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Totals TAKEDOWN* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are coming off a really high scoring game against Syracuse. The Orange play extremely fast and aren't very good on defense. That basketball-like score has created some value on the under here. 

I leaned to the under even before I saw the weather here because of the overreaction in the market, but after seeing the weather I like the under a good amount.

The Winston Salem area is expected to get 25 mph winds on Saturday night during this game. Both of these teams rank top 25 in the nation in passing efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule. They both rank worse than 65th in the nation in rushing efficiency. I expect both teams to have to run the ball more than they want in this one, and that plays into the hands of the defense.

The under is 10-1 in NC State's last 11 ACC games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. A 19-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Taamu has been terrific at quarterback for Ole Miss. He is completing better than 73% of his passes. Ole Miss' tempo has been even faster since he took over as well. The Rebels offense ranks in the top 15 in pace of play on offense. Texas A&M ranks in the top 20 in tempo as well. There will be a bunch of possessions in this one.

Texas A&M's offense has gotten quite a bit better as the season has moved on, and they are up against a weak defense. Ole Miss has an explosive offense that scores quickly.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles and the UConn Huskies will both be playing with backup quarterbacks on Saturday night. Both lost their starter in their last game. That alone would make them likely to be more conservative, but add poor weather to the mix and we should see a lot of conservative play calling.

This game is being played at Fenway Park. The wind is supposed to pick up during the game and the rain is forecast to start falling during this game. By the end of the game, 20 mph sustained winds and showers should be falling. 

Look for a sloppy lower scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under*
The Purdue Boilermakers offense has struggled in recent weeks, but the defense has been tremendous. Iowa's offense couldn't do anything last week in Wisconsin, but the defense made several strong stands.
The early weather forecast calls for 23 mph winds during this game, which changes the game in a big way. It will make both teams more conservative.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years

I like this one to stay very low scoring.

Take the under big. 

*This number is moving down as people see the weather report. I would play this for a top play down to 40 points, and four 4 stars below that. Thanks* 

*4 Star CFB Totals System SMASHER* I would not have played the under here normally, but the weather makes me do it because of the extremely strong angle backing the under. 

Louisville is expected to be 53 degrees with 25 mph winds and 30-35 mph gusts during this game. There is a 70% chance of rain. That's downright brutal conditions, and it should change this game.

Syracuse plays very fast on offense. Still, they actually have been less efficient than I expected this year. The Orange rank about 40th in most pass efficiency metrics. They aren't in the top 75 in the country in rushing efficiency. They'll need that running game more than normal with conditions like this. Louisville's pass defense has been terrible this year, but adjusted for strength of schedule this Louisville defense ranks top 20 against the run.

Louisville has a dynamic offense, but the Cardinals are playing at the 62nd fastest tempo of any team in the country, meaning they aren't pushing the issue. This is an extremely high number.

Here's a great system that fits this game: In a game in week 11-13 with a total of 56 points or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 40% or better- with wind of 10 mph or higher the under is a whopping 81-35 in the last 116 contests. That's 70% unders.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* South Alabama is great at making games low scoring. The Jaguars defense is one of the best in the Sun Belt. They have been particularly good when it comes to stopping the run. 

Georgia Southern ranks in the bottom ten in the country in tempo. They are running the triple option, so every possession takes a lot of time off the clock. 

The meeting between these two last year was 24-9. A game in the 30's here shouldn't be a surprise either.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and Arkansas State Red Wolves meet in Jonesboro on Saturday. The forecast for this one calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds during this game. Arkansas State is very reliant on their passing game. They air it out 57% of the time on offense. That is normally how they would beat Texas State, because Texas State's secondary is weak. However, in those winds it will be hard to throw the ball.

Both teams will fall back and run the ball more often, and both offensive lines are weak. Texas State and Arkansas State both rank in the bottom five in the country in rushing offense efficiency. Both defenses are pretty good against the run. 

In a game that should feature more running, with a high total and a rolling clock, I'm going to take the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon State Beavers defense has been terrible all year. Arizona State has been solid in the passing game in recent weeks. Arizona State has scored 37 points or more five times this year. They have 81 points in the last two games alone. 

Oregon State's rushing game has been pretty good this year. The Beavers should be able to run for a lot here. Arizona State ranks in the bottom five in the country in yards per carry allowed when adjusted for strength of schedule. Overall, Arizona State is allowing 5.30 yards per carry on the year.

Arizona State's tempo has been faster in recent weeks, and Todd Graham has talked about wanting the team to continue to play very quick.

Both teams should score quite a few here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Waco on Saturday calls for sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 mph. That kind of wind is really hard to throw a football in, especially if you are looking to go downfield at all. 

That makes the offenses game plan a lot more vanilla, and both of these defenses are better against the run than the pass. 

Iowa State isn't sure who is starting at quarterback this week since Kempt went down with an injury last week. The Cyclones have been good throwing the ball this year, but they have struggled badly running the football.

The sharp money is on the under in a big way here. There have been multiple steam moves on the under. I agree.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under*

The Michigan Wolverines and Wisconsin Bagders meet on Saturday in a huge Big Ten clash. Both of these teams like to run the football consistently. That plays to the strength of these defenses. Look for a bunch of running plays and a very slow pace between two teams who are extremely deliberate in their offensive styles.

Also, the early weather forecast here calls for extremely strong winds and cold temperatures for this game.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years

Take the under big.

*This number is moving down as people see the weather report. I would play this for a top play down to 39 points, and four 4 stars below that. Thank you* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Hoosiers defense has improved an amazing amount over the last couple years. The defense has become the strength of this team under Coach Allen. In the past it was the clear weakness of Indiana's football program.

Indiana now has a top 20 defense against the run when adjusted for strength of schedule. The Hoosiers are top 30 against the pass. 

This Rutgers offense is as bad as you'll see in the Big Ten. Rutgers wouldn't be likely to score many at all here in normal conditions. 

With a forecast of 20 mph winds and 60% chance of showers, this game should be changed quite a bit by the weather. Indiana likes to throw the ball around, and they are pretty good through the air. With wind like that, I expect Indiana to be more conservative. Especially against a Rutgers offense that can't do much of anything.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The long term forecast calls for sustained winds of 22 mph here and gusts of 30 mph during the game. That's some intense wind that really changes the game. Both of these offenses have struggled for much of the season. The defenses are clearly better than the offenses here. Add in the weather factor, and I have to take the under.

Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years. This one easily fits the criteria with a 45 degree temperature and 22 mph winds.

Look for both teams to run more than normal in a low scoring battle here.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers and SMU Mustangs are not normally teams I'd be looking to play an under with. There is an outside factor here though. The weather is expected to be really ugly for this one. 

Memphis is expected to get 20-25 mph winds and some rain during this game. Both of these teams are very pass happy generally, but I fully expect it to be very difficult to throw the ball as normal. Will they still get some big plays? Yes. Still, this game is totaled extremely high. Everything has to go right for the over when the number is set like this. With weather like this, I don't think that will happen.

Games with 12 mph sustained winds and totals of 60 points or higher have cashed at 60% under in the past ten years. We can certainly assume that with rain the number would improve.

I think the elements will make the two teams more conservative. I'll go under this very high number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Early season games played on a neutral court have cashed at almost 57% in the last 10 years when the posted total is 135.5 or higher. This is a neutral court, and it is the first time either of these teams have played in this gym. 

Elon's Coach Matheny talked in the preseason about wanting to slow things down a bit this year from their tempo in the past. They have a perfect opponent to slow it down against here. FIU is a very slow paced team that has played to a bunch of low scoring games in the last couple years since Anthony Evans took over.

I think this number should be 136.5, so we're getting 5 points of value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Quinnipiac has a new coach this year in Baker Dunleavy and he has talked in depth in the offseason about concerns on the offensive end. The team has shot the ball well through two games, but that was against Dartmouth and Brown. They step up in competition in a big way here. 

Colorado has a lot of length and athleticism, and they should be a solid defensive team this year. Colorado is a big favorite here and long term unders have been the way to go with a big spread like this.

On a neutral floor, the under has the edge because of the unique shooting backdrops for both teams. This is a place neither team has played. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies won't play as fast this year under Coach Mike Hopkins as they did under Lorenzo Romar. Hopkins has this team playing the Syracuse zone he learned under Jim Boeheim, and that typically limits the possessions in a game. 

Washington has been getting to the line at an extremely high rate through two games and that's where their offense has come from. They should get to the line less against a Providence team that has been good at defending without fouling under Ed Cooley.

Cooley's Providence teams have typically been better on defense than offense. He mixes up the defenses very well.

This game is at Madison Square Garden. The under is a very good bet in college games at Madison Square Garden because of the sight lines being so difficult. In the last 45 college hoops games at MSG as a true neutral court has seen 31 games stay under the total and 14 go over the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are without three key players for this game. Jason Carter is their best big man and they'll certainly miss him a lot here. Carter is a good offensive rebounder and a decent scorer. 

Clemson no longer has Jarron Blossomgame, and he was the heart and soul of the offense at Clemson. The Tigers won't be as good on offense this year. What did Brad Brownell have as his focal point during the offseason? Defense. He was disappointed in the team's defense last year. Clemson has routinely been a great defensive team under his helm, but they weren't very good there this year. The team took a trip overseas in the offseason, and Brownell believes the team is set to be much better on defense this year.

This is a neutral site game. In the past ten years, neutral site games with a total of 135.5 or higher in the first eight games of the year have gone 57% under the total. That's a huge sample size. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NHL 100% Angle CRUSHER*  The Vegas Golden Knights will hit the road once again as they get set to take on the Edmonton Oilers Tuesday night.

There are many factors that go into this Angle here.

It starts with Edmonton at home. The Oilers have been involved in some pretty high scoring affairs when it comes to their own arena. They enter play on Tuesday hitting the Over in 6 of their 9 home games this year, as they average nearly 4 goals against.

Vegas continues to struggle with finding any sort of defensive consistency. The Golden Knights are giving up 3.25 goals per game on the road and they continue to battle injuries. They have bounced between their 3rd and 4th string all season long and with how fast they play, it isn’t doing them any favors as they allow a lot of easy shots on net.

This series has been a huge over one as well. Over is 7-0 in Golden Knights last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Over is 4-0 in Golden Knights last 4 games following a win.

This is a nice play here, given the pace of these teams.

Take Over.

*3 Star Play Over* San Diego State is playing a whole new brand of basketball under Brian Dutcher. A San Diego State beat writer said Dutcher gave the Aztecs a choice in practices leading up to the season either push the ball in full court drills or get on the line and run sprints: either way they were going to run. Off missed shots Dutcher doesn't want the team running set plays, rather he wants them looking to score in transition.

Arizona State is one of the faster paced teams in the Pac 12, and the Sun Devils are likely to be happy to play fast in this one. They have a great backcourt and they have speed all over the court.

San Diego State no longer has an athletic shot blocker in the paint like they have had in recent years. Defense has been a struggle for Arizona State in recent years.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New Mexico Lobos are playing a very unique style this year. New Mexico is going with the run and stun. Paul Weir is their new coach, and he saw that the team didn't have enough size this year and decided the team would press and run at an extreme level. Yes, they only played Northern New Mexico in their first game. Still, putting up 147 points (a record) and playing the game to a pace of 100 (blistering fast) shows the way this team will play.

Weir said, "I mean, the reality is we are a little undersized. The reality is we lack one or two McDonalds All-Americans on our team. What we have is our depth. What we have is our teamwork. What we have is our elevation. What we have is our speed, our shooting ability." They will run like crazy this year.

Nebraska Omaha has finished among the top nine in the country in tempo in each of the last five seasons. That's really impressive when you consider there are 351 teams. Omaha plays very quickly. They aren't likely to slow the game down at all here.

A really fast pace leads to value on the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon State Beavers are going to be a much different team this year than last. Typically, you see value on a team's games in some way when there is a major stylistic change from one year to the next. I think that means Oregon State overs will have value for a bit here.

Oregon State was walking it up and stalling as much as possible, but that's because they were shorthanded due to injury. Tres Tinkle is the team's best player and he was injured. Now, Tinkle is back and he'll be one of the best players in the Pac 12. Ethan Thompson is running the show as a freshman in the backcourt for Oregon State and his speed is a major weapon. Oregon State will play much faster and score a lot more points this season. 

Wyoming ranked 15th in the nation in tempo out of 351 teams last year. The Cowboys definitely want to run. Look for Wyoming to try to get transition buckets here and Oregon State will play to their style as they change things up this year.

I think the oddsmakers are a bit slow in adjusting here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames ranked in the top 25 in the nation in terms of pace of play last year. They are going to run a bunch again this year. St. Joe's was a team last year that played to the pace of their opponent. St. Joe's played very fast in their first game against Toledo this year and that game saw 185 total points.

UIC's opponent in the first game was NC Central and they stalled the entire game and played a zone defense to slow the game down. I don't expect St. Joe's to do that, and UIC should get out in transition here.

St. Joe's is without Brown and Kimble here, and that's why the total has come down some. Still, I see guys like Newkirk and freshman Taylor Funk being able to score quite a few here. 

UIC has star Dikembe Dixson back from an injury last year, and he will be great for the Flames this year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has easily been the best in the NFL against the pass. The LA Chargers are throwing the ball on 62.4% of their plays so far this year. The Chargers offensive line has performed well this year, but Jacksonville has been best in the league in rushing the passer. Rivers will have less time than normal to throw here. The Jags secondary should make LA struggle far more than normal through the air.

The Jaguars run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They are running it on almost 53% of their plays on offense. Look for them to run the ball and go on long drives that eat up a lot of clock here. Jacksonville has struggled to punch it in the end zone consistently, and that likely continues here. The Chargers defense ranks 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three contests.

There is clear sharp money here on the under, and I agree. I think both defenses play well in this one.

The under is 5-0 in the Chargers last 5 vs. the AFC.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Jets offense has been surprisingly good on offense this year. They have averaged almost 28 points per game in their last three contests (including one played in a driving rainstorm against Atlanta two weeks ago). The Jets passing attack has been an area of strength of late, and they are going up against the worst passing defense in the NFL here. 

The Jets defense is still a problem with their pass secondary being the biggest weakness. While some might consider Fitzpatrick a huge step down from Winston, I'm not sure the dropoff is that big. Winston has been injured and inconsistent this year. 

The Bucs have scored 25 points or more in half their games this year. Tampa Bay is capable on offense.

I think this is a game between two teams who aren't very good defensively at keeping plays in front of them. Look for a lot of big plays from the offenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The under is a perfect 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between Alabama and Mississippi State in Mississippi. Take a look back at those games and you'll see a lot of the same characteristics. 

Both of these teams run the ball at a high percentage of their overall offensive plays. That has been the case for quite some time. Alabama has generally won this game on the road with great defense and a good enough running game. 

Alabama is 2nd and Mississippi State is 24th in yards per play allowed this year. Alabama runs the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year. Mississippi State runs it on 62.4% of their plays. That's extremely run heavy compared to the country overall. 

Both teams are also playing slower this year. With a slow tempo and a bunch of running I see this one staying under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats and Purdue Boilermakers meet in a Big 10 battle in Evanston on Saturday. The wind is expected to be around 14 mph during this game. That's enough to make it difficult to throw the football downfield. 

Northwestern's rushing defense ranks 7th in the nation when you account for strength of schedule. I think they can make Purdue one dimensional on offense and then get after the passer. 

Northwestern's offensive line play has been terrible this year. They rank among the 20 worst offensive lines in the country. Thorson has been under pressure immediately on a bunch of plays. Jackson has been banged up at running back, and Northwestern just hasn't gotten anything going on offense this year.

The under is 36-15-1 in Northwestern's last 52 home games. The under is 4-0 in Purdue's last 4. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars have played a bunch of low scoring games this year. Inside Sun Belt play, they have three games that have finished with a total of 34 points or less in the game. One other game (Idaho) was 20-20 before overtime. Only one of their conference games has gone over this total and it was a 33-23 game against LA Monroe (who plays in a ton of high scoring affairs). 

South Alabama's defense is far better than the average one in this conference, and they play at a slow pace. The Jaguars offense hasn't been any good all year.

Arkansas State doesn't have any running game. The Red Wolves air it out a lot, but South Alabama's secondary is the strength of their team.

I think this one is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and the Georgia State Panthers meet on Saturday in a game where both defenses have significant statistical edges on the offenses. These are two teams who have struggled to put together long drives. The defenses are both good at keeping everything in front of them and avoiding long plays from scrimmage. 

I had this one totaled far below this number. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Auburn and Georgia have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. These are two of the top ten defenses in the country. Both teams run much more than the average team. Georgia plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the country. Auburn ranks in the middle of the pack in tempo.

With a lot of running and two elite defenses, the clock should keep ticking throughout this game. I had this one projected in the mid 40's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Iowa Hawkeyes offense looked amazing against Ohio State last week, but Iowa's offense hadn't been all that impressive for much of the season. I think they come back down to earth here. Wisconsin's defense is one of the best in the nation. The Badgers rank sixth in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Wisconsin's running attack is good, but it isn't as good as it has been in some years in the past. Wisconsin ranks 25th in the nation in yards per carry. That is despite playing against some really bad defenses against the run. They are good at running the ball, but they aren't elite. The strength of this Badgers team is their defense.

Wisconsin ranks 129th in pace of play this year out of 130 teams. They will eat up the time by going on long drives that can use up more than half of a quarter. 

The last two years these teams have played to 10-6 and 17-9 final scores. 

The under is 6-0 in Iowa's last 6 after scoring 40 points or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two at Wisconsin. A 10-0 angle.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Quinnipiac Bobcats have a new coach this year. They were coached by Tom Moore last year. He coached the team to crash the boards and run as fast as possible. That led to constant run outs for the opposition. It led to a bunch of high scoring games.

Baker Dunleavy is the team's new coach. He is the son of Mike Dunleavy and he has been an assistant at Villanova under Jay Wright. Dunleavy will attempt to use the Villanova 4 out and 1 in game plan and win with spacing and solid defense. That should mean a much slower paced team than last year's Bobcats team.

Dartmouth's Evan Boudreaux was one of the best players in the Ivy League. Before the season, Dartmouth's coach called Boudreaux "the guy we run our offense through" and "our leader", well that hit a speed bump when Boudreaux announced his intent to transfer on Thursday. Announcing two days before the season starts really makes it hard for this team to adjust its offensive game plan.

This total is awfully high for a game between two teams with a bunch of offensive question marks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have scored 37 points in each of their last two games and that was against SEC defenses in Arkansas and Kentucky. 

Lafayette's defense is very weak. They allowed 66 points earlier this year against Tulsa. The Ragin' Cajuns like to play quickly. They are top 40 in the nation in tempo. Ole Miss is top 20 in the nation in pace.

A fast paced game where Ole Miss puts up a big number here. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Old Dominion Monarchs played at the third slowest tempo in the country last year. The team plans to play noticeably faster this year. Don't expect track meets, but there should be value looking to go over their totals early on. Jeff Jones said, "We don't have a choice but to play faster" based on personnel this season. 

Towson has been among the leaders in the nation in free throw attempts per possession the last couple years. They crash the offensive glass. They also do a lot of fouling on defense though. Both those are obviously good for the over.

Last year, these two met and the final was 61-58. Any kind of tempo change from Old Dominion should push this one higher, because last year's shooting numbers were subpar in that 61-58 game as well.

Early in the season, refs are usually a little quicker with the whistle, and I imagine there will be a lot of free throws here.

I'll go over this low total. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The Arizona Cardinals showed us a blueprint of what they want to try do in their win against San Francisco last week. Adrian Peterson had 37 carries in that game. That's a career high for Peterson, who is an old man in running back years. It's hard to imagine him being as good as he was last game, especially since he is up against a much better defense this time around. Clearly, Arizona doesn't feel very comfortable with Stanton under center, and I don't think Seattle will give up very many against them here.

Russell Wilson is excellent, but he has a very bad offensive line in front of him. The Arizona defense is pretty good, and their numbers have been much better at home in recent seasons than on the road. Seattle's offense has no running game and Lacy is out for this one as well.

There is a good system for Thursday night games in the NFL. When both teams are off only 4 days of rest and it is a division game in week 9 or later: the under is 16-5 in the last 21 games. 

I think we are in for another low scoring contest here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA on TNT Total SMASHER* The Cleveland Cavs have allowed 112 points or more in 9 straight games. The Cavs rank dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Houston's offense started the season slowly, but they are on fire of late. Houston ranks first in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last three games. Who is number two? The Cleveland Cavs.

Cleveland is playing faster this year, and Houston is always looking to run. I expect a fast tempo here and both offenses have clear edges at multiple spots vs. the opposing defense. 

I see a lot of open looks from 3 for Houston, and that usually means a big number for the Rockets. LeBron and company should put up a bunch here as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Ohio has gotten much improved quarterback play this year. The Bobcats have been a really good offense in MAC play this season. Ohio has actually scored 42 points or more in 6 of their 9 games this year. They have scored 48, 48, and 45 in their last three games.

Toledo has the best quarterback in the MAC in Logan Woodside. Their offense is very explosive. They have tremendous balance and break off a lot of big plays.

I see a back and forth game with both offenses having the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*This line has moved a bit since I made the selection on Monday. I rate this as a 4 star play up to 65 and a 3 star play up to 69 points. Thank you.* 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been playing tremendous defense so far this year. Oklahoma City ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Sacramento ranks second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. They are likely to have a lot of trouble scoring in this one. 

Oklahoma City and Sacramento both rank among the five slowest teams in the NBA (pace of play) in the last five games. The Kings actually rank dead last in the NBA in pace for the season as a whole.

Oklahoma City should be able to get their points here, but I don't see there being enough possessions for this one to go over the total without really high shooting numbers.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls have their quarterback back in the fold and this offense should be able to have success against a Bowling Green defense that is one of the worst in the nation.

Bowling Green's offense has been much better in recent weeks, and Buffalo's defense has several key injuries.

The tempo of both teams ranks among the 30 fastest in the country. With two bad defenses and a number this low, I'll take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Early Bird Special* Sunday has easily been the best day of the week for unders in the NBA in the long run. Day game unders have the highest win percentage. 

This one is in Los Angeles, where it will be 12:35 pm when this one tips off. Day game unders 5pm EST or earlier start time with a total of 193 or higher are 34-15 (69.4%) in the last 49. Day game unders in general are above 55%. 

Miami's Hassan Whiteside is one of the best defensive players in the NBA. Whiteside missed several games earlier this year, and the Heat defense didn't look good. Since he has returned, the Heat have been a top ten defense in the league in terms of efficiency.

Both the Clippers and the Heat play at a pace that is slightly slower than the league average. Look for this one to stay under the total.

Take the under. 

***THIS IS NO LONGER A RECOMMENDED PLAY DUE TO THE DESHAUN WATSON INJURY***

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The weather here should play a role. Nashville's forecast for Sunday is for 15 mph with gusts of 25 mph. That's plenty to make it much harder to throw the football. Neither one of these teams are very good at throwing the ball to start with, but the weather should make them even more one dimensional. 

Joe Flacco is cleared to play here, but he has been terrible this season. Flacco has a QBR better than one quarterback in the NFL (Kizer of the Browns). The Titans will load up the box here.

Tennessee's rushing attack is solid, but the Ravens front seven is a good unit. I think they'll keep the Titans running game from breaking out.

Both teams play slower than the league average and with a lot of run the clock will be ticking away.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eagles offense has been excellent this year, but this is the best defense they have played. Denver's defensive numbers are a little tricky, since the offense has been so bad that it has put them in terrible positions. This is still a top two or three defense in the NFL. 

The move to Brock Osweiler likely helps the under. He is less likely to throw terrible interceptions than Siemian, but he is also less likely to make impressive throws. I consider him the more conservative option. 

Philadelphia's defense is healthier now than they were, and they should be solid against a Denver team that is likely to run the ball a lot here.

Both teams have very good pass rushes compared to the offensive pass protection against them. Look for both quarterbacks to be under pressure throughout this game.

I see both offenses struggling to get into the end zone here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars offense looked a lot better last week against San Jose State, but Fresno State is a whole different animal than San Jose State. This Fresno State defense has been tremendous this year. Fresno State ranks 19th in the country in yards per play allowed and that is despite the fact they played Washington and Alabama. Fresno State is coming off a disappointing loss to UNLV and I expect them to come out ready to go in this one.

BYU's defense ranks in the top 50 in yards per play allowed. The Cougars aren't great on this side of the ball, but they are pretty good.

Both teams play at a very slow pace. Fresno State ranks among the 20 slowest teams in the country. BYU ranks among the 25 slowest teams in the country (out of 130).

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Miami/Virginia Tech Totals CASH* The Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Tech Hokies are both very good teams. Both of them are led by their strong defenses.

Miami is 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Virginia Tech is 11th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Miami's secondary has held opposing quarterbacks to the third lowest QBR on average of any team in the country. Virginia Tech is 7th in that same category. The Hokies always have an elite secondary.

Miami's offense was great against non-conference opponents, but they have struggled of late. They have multiple injuries and the offensive line is a weakness. Virginia Tech's pass rush is above average and should cause problems. 

Virginia Tech's offense is 48th in the country in yards per play. The running game has been weak all year, and Miami's secondary is tremendous. 

I see this as a hard fought battle where both defenses have the upper hand in a tight game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTSA defense was very good last year. I expect them to improve as conference play goes along this year. Their coach is a defensive minded coach who will work hard on that side of the ball.

FIU is coming off a high scoring game against Marshall last week, but in general their offense has been mediocre or worse. 

Both of these teams play at a very slow pace. UTSA ranks among the five slowest teams in the country.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs pound the football with their running game. That means a running clock for much of the game. Georgia's defense ranks third in yards per play allowed in the country. This is an excellent Georgia team.

South Carolina's defense has been pretty good this year. The Gamecocks offense isn't efficient at all. 

South Carolina ranks in the bottom 15 in pace of play and Georgia ranks in the bottom ten in the country in pace of play. There shouldn't be many possessions in this game. 

Look for Georgia to grab the lead and run consistently and use up the clock.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs offense isn't what it was last year, but they should be able to pile up the points against this North Texas defense. North Texas has allowed 37.9 points per game so far this year, which ranks them among the ten worst in the nation in that category. 

North Texas is averaging 37.4 points per game this year. This Mean Green offense is much improved this year under the leadership of Seth Littrell and quarterback Mason Fine. Fine is a rising star who should end up being great in this offense. He's already very good. 

Only two North Texas games this year have stayed under this total. Louisiana Tech's offense is better than they have shown, and I expect a big number from them here. North Texas will likely stay close too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are both very pass heavy teams so far this season. Vanderbilt is throwing it on 56.5% of their plays. Western Kentucky is throwing it on 59.8% of their offensive plays. Passing teams are clearly better for the over when it comes to the drives taking less time with the clock stopped for incomplete passes.

Western Kentucky's offense was really disappointing early in the year. They are finally putting it together of late. The Hilltoppers have scored 108 points in their last three games. Mike White and the passing game are finally clicking. 

Vanderbilt's defense has fallen apart of late. They have allowed 34 points or more in four straight games. That includes a game against Florida where they allowed 38 points to that bad Florida offense. 

Western Kentucky's run defense is good, but their secondary is a weakness.

I see both teams scoring a solid amount here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas State Wildcats don't have as good of a defense as they have had in recent seasons. Kansas State's run defense is good, but their secondary is a bit of a problem. Texas Tech is clearly capable of exposing problems in the secondary. Kansas State ranks 72nd in the nation in QBR allowed year to date. 

Kansas State's rushing attack has been very good this year. The Wildcats are averaging 5.10 yards per carry. Texas Tech's weakness is their run defense. The Red Raiders allowed 5.78 yards per carry two weeks ago against Iowa State and 7.15 yards per carry last week against Oklahoma. 

The history between these two is for high scoring contests. Dating back to 2008 here is the final total of all the matchups between these two teams: 86, 80, 75, 79, 75, 58, 103, and 82. Only one of the games was under, and it was close to this total. 

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics are playing great defense so far this year. Boston ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma City ranks second in the league in defensive efficiency.

What about tempo of late for these two teams? Oklahoma City ranks 25th in the NBA at only 97.55 possessions per game in their last three games. Boston ranks slowest in the NBA at only 94.99 possessions per game in their last three games. That's more than a full possession slower than any other team in the league in their last three games.

It's rare you can get two teams playing great defense and playing slowly and catch a total of 205. Here we do, and I think it gives us solid value. There was a reverse line move on the under in this game at CRIS as well, and CRIS is one of the sharpest books there is. Another positive sign for this one.

The under is 5-0 in the Thunder's last 5 games vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in the Celtics last 5 Friday games. A 10-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star TGIF NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz toyed with the idea of playing faster in the offseason, but they are back at the bottom of the NBA in tempo now that the season is here. Quin Snyder's team has likely determined they need to win low scoring games because they don't really have the offensive threats needed to win shootouts on a consistent basis.

The Toronto Raptors worked hard on defense in the offseason. Toronto actually ranked second in the NBA in defensive efficiency before being torched by Denver in their last game. They are now eighth in defensive efficiency. I expect Toronto to play much harder on the defensive end here.

Utah is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency now. The Jazz should get the tempo to their liking in this one. 

Six straight Utah Jazz games have stayed under this total in regulation despite the fact they have played the very fast paced Suns and Lakers in this period.

The under is 23-8 in Toronto's last 31 road games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NHL Slapshot Special* Two playoff hopefuls clash on the west coast as the Predators and Sharks battle Wednesday night. 

With these two goalies, this one is going to see limited chances for both teams on the offensive end.  Looking at Pekka Rinne first, the Preds netminder has just dominated the Sharks in his career. Over 22 career starts, Rinne owns a 1.87 GAA to go along with a ridiculous .942 save percentage. The numbers are mind boggling almost, as this is not a small sample size to work off of. Rinne owns just a 1,86 GAA on the season as well. 

 Martin Jones has been almost as dominant this season. With just a 2.27 GAA, Jones has gone 4 straight games with allowing 2 goals or less. The Sharks defense as a whole is playing extremely well, which gives the edge to the Under in this spot.  

Head to head wise, the Under is 9-2-2 in the last 13 meetings in San Jose.  These two defenses lean on their goalies, who are two of the top goalies in the NHL for sure. Lean on them here Wednesday which should result in a game where scoring chances are at a premium.  

Take Under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Pelicans rank 21st in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and it's by a wide margin. Minnesota is allowing 1.133 points per possession on the year.

Minnesota ranks 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. New Orleans ranks tied for 10th in offensive efficiency. 

We have a meeting between two teams who prefer to run and both struggle badly on the defensive end. I expect a lot of easy looks in this game. 

Minnesota ranks in the top five in free throws attempted this year, and New Orleans has committed the third most fouls per game of any team in the league.

I see a close high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Brooklyn Nets and Phoenix Suns meet on Tuesday night. Phoenix isn't the same team they were under Earl Watson. Jay Triano has encouraged the team to continue to play relatively fast, but he wants them to be more under control. He's also got the team working much harder on the defensive end.

Brooklyn isn't the same offensive powerhouse without Jeremy Lin. D'Angelo Russell isn't 100 percent right now, and Quincy Acy will miss this game. 

Brooklyn will play quickly, but this total is about as high as you ever see in the NBA, and I think the current Suns team should be lined differently than the Suns team from the start of the season when it comes to totals.

One of the best under refs in the NBA is Haywoode Workman, and he's part of the crew for this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Monday Night Money* The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos in this AFC West clash on Monday night. 

Kansas City is coming off two straight losses. The Chiefs will be anxious to right the ship and I think that means an improved defensive effort here. Kansas City's pass rush should be able to get pressure in this game, and Trevor Siemian has been really poor under pressure.

Denver's defense is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Denver's offense has had serious problems this year, but the defense is still elite. 

Denver and Kansas City are very familiar with each other, and familiarity helps the defenses. 

Division home favorites of 7 points or more have seen their games go under the total at a rate of 19-4 in the last 23 when the total is 41 or higher.

Tony Corrente's crew works this game, and they are the best under crew in the game. The under is 81-60 in their games (57.5%).

Expect a hard fought game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star World Series Game 5 Totals MONEY* The Dodgers send Clayton Kershaw to the mound here. Kershaw was great in game one and I expect another terrific effort from him. Kershaw has been the best pitcher in baseball for years now and I like his chances to prove himself in a huge game here. Kershaw has held Houston hitters to a .255 wOBA in his career. 

Dallas Keuchel is a different pitcher at home. His ERA at home in his career 2.94. Batters are hitting only .227 against him at home.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is my single favorite under umpire in the bigs. Miller loves to call strikes, and his strike three calls often get batters upset. He is a pitcher's best friend, and we have two tremendous pitchers who can paint the corners here.

The under is 42-29 in Keuchel's home starts in his career. The under is 74-57 in Kershaw's road starts. The under is a whopping 30-8 in Kershaw's 38 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Dallas Cowboys defense expects to get Sean Lee back for this game. Lee is the most important player on this defense, and I expect him to make a difference right away. 

Washington is coming off a disappointing loss on Monday Night Football against the Eagles. The Redskins are expected to get Josh Norman back at CB here, and that's a big boost to their defense.

This is a divisional rivalry where there are often a bunch of close games. This one has an extra wrinkle in that the weather is expected to be a major problem. The forecast calls for rain and 15-25 mph winds with gusts to 30 mph in this one.

How much does wind hurt scoring in these divisional games in the NFL? With wind of 10 mph or higher and a total of 40 or higher: the under is a whopping 115-71 in the last 186 situations. That's 62% unders.

With the total here set at a pretty high number and both teams getting back key defenders combined with the weather here- I think the under holds significant value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* One of my favorite angles in the NBA to play is early games on Sunday going under the total. From the beginning of the season through March: the under is 214-144 (60%) in games played between 12 pm and 4 pm eastern. This game fits the system.

I see the Hawks as a team that is likely to struggle to score this year without much help for Schroeder. The Bucks are known for controlling the tempo and playing in the halfcourt. They ranked in the bottom five in the NBA in terms of tempo last season.

Ersan Ilyasova is a 11 points per game guy and he's out for the Hawks here. There isn't much reliable scoring on this team to start with.

At this level, I see value on the under in this early game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets square off in a game that is expected to be played in miserable weather conditions. 

The forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for a 100% chance of rain with heavy downpours and winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 mph. That is some brutal weather. It's a clear plus for the under.

What does that mean? It should mean more conservative play calling from both teams. It should mean the defenses are ready for the run, because it will be very difficult to throw the ball efficiently in a game like this.

The Falcons offense hasn't been the same with Shanahan at OC. The Jets offense is very inconsistent. 

With the weather as big factor, I'm on the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Take a look at the injury report for this game and you'll see a bunch of key names from the defensive side on both teams are out. Both secondaries are very thin for this one. Oakland's secondary is missing two of their top three corners. 

Derek Carr and the Raiders offense were great last game, and I expect Oakland's offense to be much better now that Carr is healthy again. He is a budding star in the league, and he has plenty of weapons around him.

Tyrod Taylor is capable of making big plays, and he's up against arguably the worst secondary in the NFL here. Buffalo's tempo has consistently ranked in the top five in the NFL as well.

Look for a close game with both offenses having quite a bit of success.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners offense ranks as the second least efficient offense in the nation out of 130 teams. UTEP has scored 16 points or less in 6 of their 7 games this year. They have been held to 14 points or less in 5 of 7 games. 

UTEP's defense has been much better in the last couple games since Mike Price took over as interim coach. It seems the Miners have changed up their schemes a bit and allowed less big plays. This defense ranked as one of the bottom 10 in efficiency in the first five games. They rank in the top 50 in the last couple games.

UTSA's defense was a major strength last year. They have looked worse of late, but a date with UTEP should fix their defensive struggles.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Virginia Tech Hokies are running the ball on 58% of their offensive plays so far this year. Adjusted for strength of schedule though, Virginia Tech has the 110th best rushing attack in the country. Duke's defense is 51st in the country in rushing defense adjusted by strength of schedule. 

Duke's offense ranks as one of the five least efficient offenses in the country in their last four games. The Blue Devils haven't gotten any big plays, and they are up against a Virginia Tech defense that is very good here.

The forecast calls for 8 mph wind (nothing too major) but a 70% chance of rain in this one. That should make the game plans a little more conservative. Both defenses excel against the run so that plays into their hands.

The under is 6-0 in Duke's last 6 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 ACC games. The under is 4-0 in VA Tech's last 4 following an ATS cover. A 15-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* While this is a low total, I think there is a good reason for it to be low. In fact, I made this total 38 points. We have two teams who like to play smash mouth football here. They are going to want to run the football consistently and both teams play at a slow pace. 

What about the defenses? Minnesota ranks 25th in yards per play allowed and Iowa ranks 39th, so both are solid. Neither offense is very good. Iowa is 85th in the nation in yards per play at 5.2 per play. Minnesota is 87th at 5.1 per play. 

The defenses are clearly better than the offenses here. With a slow tempo and a bunch of running plays, I see this staying under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank 110th in the nation in total defense. The Old Dominion Monarchs rank 103rd in the nation in total defense. 

North Texas is playing at a very quick pace under Seth Littrell in the air raid offense. Mason Fine is a very good quarterback, and I expect him and this North Texas offense to have a lot of success against an Old Dominion defense that has been ravaged by injuries this year.

Old Dominion's offense is much better with Lawry back and healthy at running back. North Texas has allowed a whopping 10 plays of 50 yards or more on the year, so expect some explosive plays from Old Dominion here.

Take the over.