*3 Star Play Under* Yu Darvish was rocked in his last outing, but he has elite stuff. I think he starts out with a good outing against a Mets offense that is due for regression to the mean. The Mets have overachieved offensively and their totals have become a bit inflated based on their ridiculous over run for the season.

Not many pitchers have been as locked in as Jacob Degrom of late. Degrom has allowed more than 2 runs in only one of his last nine starts. He has double digit strikeouts in three of his last six starts. He'll face a tough lineup here, but Degrom has allowed only 11 hits in 63 at bats against this Dodgers lineup so far in his career.

Look for a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals offense has been very good consistently this year. They are up against a journeyman in Vance Worley. Worley had poor numbers in Triple A this year. He couldn't strike hardly anyone out. Why should I expect him to be better in the majors? I don't. 

A.J. Cole has lost velocity on his fastball from a couple years ago. He has some major control issues, and he'll put a lot of guys on base. This Marlins lineup has been very good in recent weeks, and Ozuna is red hot in the middle of the lineup.

Both bullpens are exhausted after they were used up yesterday. I don't think the starters give them quality starts here. This one gets high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is my favorite under umpire in the majors. Miller's strike percentage has been over 65% in four consecutive seasons, which no other umpire has matched. This is a guy that helps the pitchers a bunch.

Robert Stephenson has a high upside, but throwing strikes is a major issue for him. Having a guy like Miller behind the dish should be a huge help for him. The Pirates aren't a patient team either.

Trevor Williams started the season pitching poorly, but his fastball has good movement and he has been pretty solid of late.

Billy Hamilton is questionable with an injury and Zack Cozart is out with an injury. Those are two key pieces in this Reds lineup.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale here. Sale has 10 strikeouts or more in six of his last eight games. He has nine strikeouts in the other two games in that span. Sale has pitched a shutout in three straight games. He has allowed 1 run or less in six of the team's last eight games. 

Carlos Carrasco is far less consistent than Sale, and there is some chance he gets hit a decent amount. Still, the Red Sox have an inconsistent lineup and Pedroia is banged up (questionable). 

A slight wind blowing in and an under umpire are two nice bonuses for this play. 

The under is 21-8 in Carrasco's last 29 road starts. The under is 5-1 in Sale's last 6.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense hasn't been good. Pittsburgh has scored three runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Pirates have scored more than 4 runs only twice in their last 14 games.

Clayton Richard isn't very good, and Pittsburgh should get some shots against him, but this is a very pitcher-friendly park and with the Padres recent over run, this game is inflated by half a run. The Padres bullpen has been solid this year.

Gerrit Cole has been shutting people down of late. Cole has allowed 2 runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Cole has 5 walks and 26 strikeouts in his last four outings. This Padres lineup is still one of the worst in baseball. The Pirates bullpen has been excellent in the past month.

Sunday is the best under day in baseball by a large margin in the past 10 years. With Cole dealing and the Pirates offense struggling, I'll grab the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dinelson Lamet is a guy I think has a high upside. Lamet gives up a bunch of fly balls, which is a great thing when he is pitching at Petco Park. Lamet has had some great starts at home this year, while he has struggled consistently on the road. 

Ivan Nova is a pitch to contact pitcher, and that is fine at a park like this. Nova doesn't walk anyone, and that helps him get by with giving up more hits than an average pitcher. 

Both bullpens have been much better in the past month. 

These two offenses both rank in the bottom five in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* The weather plays a big role in this selection. Winds blowing in from center field of 15 mph during this game will definitely help the pitchers. 

I also think Sean Newcomb and Jerod Eickhoff are young guys who are a bit undervalued by the markets right now. Both of these guys have some good movement on their offspeed pitches.

The Phillies have been hapless this year against lefties (.292 OBP). The Braves offense has been inconsistent this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jacob Degrom has been locked in of late. Degrom has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He isn't giving anyone free passes, and Degrom has always had great strikeout stuff. 

The Mets offense is one that I believe has overachieved pretty drastically this year. The over is a whopping 59-30-11 in the Mets games, and at this point I see their totals getting inflated. Gallardo is obviously nothing special now, but I think he can at least limit the Mets.

This is still a pitcher-friendly park and with a very good pitcher in Degrom throwing on one side, a number of 9 here is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* It is scorching hot in Texas right now. The temperature at game time is expected to be 100 degrees. The ball flies extremely well in this park when it is this hot. That's a big factor in this play.

Of course it doesn't hurt to have two bad starting pitchers on the mound either. Chris Tillman has been abysmal all year. Tillman's velocity is down and his walks are way up. Tillman is allowing 1.94 homers per nine innings and this isn't a good park to go to for a guy who can't keep the ball in the ballpark. The Rangers hitters have a tremendous .429 on base percentage against Tillman in 128 plate appearances.

Andrew Cashner has been due for regression for a long time. It hasn't come as much as I expected, but I still think it is coming. Cashner is walking 4 guys per nine innings and striking out 4.5 guys per nine innings. That's about as bad as you'll ever see from a big league starter. His SIERA is over 5.5 and he is tightroping his way out of some big innings. 

The Orioles bullpen isn't what it used to be, and the Rangers bullpen is among the worst in baseball. Look for a high scoring contest here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Oakland A's offense has been dreadful of late. Oakland has scored only 8 runs in their last four games combined. The A's now face the Blue Jays best pitcher in Marcus Stroman. 

Stroman has a career 4.09 ERA in the first half of the season. His career ERA in the second half is a full run better at 3.09. Stroman has his best numbers (3.16 ERA) when the roof is closed and with a chance of rain it is likely the roof will be closed for this one. 

Oakland's Sean Manaea is a tremendous young pitcher. He has some maturing to do, but I think he has a really high upside. Manaea has a 3.82 ERA and a 3.55 FIP on the season. 

The Blue Jays offense isn't elite, and I think this total is pricing them like they are. 

This is a get away day game and some of the key starters will likely be out of the lineup for this one.

The under is 4-0 in the A's last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in the Blue Jays last 7 home games vs. a road team with a win percentage of 40% or lower on the road. The under is 3-0-1 in Stroman's last 4 home starts. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. A 22-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies meet on Wednesday night in a battle of two pitchers who have been throwing the ball extremely well of late. 

Mike Fiers has a superb 2.36 ERA over his last 10 starts. He altered his pitch usage and changed up his arm angle a bit at the beginning of that time. It has worked really well. In the last 2 starts, Fiers has 1 walk and 20 strikeouts. This Phillies lineup is about as bad as it gets, and Fiers is dealing.

Aaron Nola has been excellent of late as well. After a slow start to the year, Nola has allowed 2 runs or less in six straight starts. He has gone 7 innings or more in five of those six starts as well which helps avoid this Phillies bullpen.

Gorman is an umpire who helps the under some and the temperature will be moderate here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Rick Porcello has been a much better pitcher in the second half of the season in his career. Porcello has a 4.59 ERA in the first half vs. a 3.76 ERA in the second half of the season. 

Porcello is showing some strong signs of turning the corner. He has 0 walks and 13 strikeouts in his last two starts. With his improved control of late, Porcello has been able to improve his strand rate. This Angels lineup isn't very good. There isn't enough depth here. 

Parker Bridwell has been decent so far this year, and the Red Sox lineup is extremely inconsistent. 

One thing to keep in mind here is we have two teams who have top five bullpens and a high posted total. Vic Carrapazza is the umpire and he's one of the best under umpires in the business. 

The under is 10-0-1 in the Angels last 11 vs. a right hander. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series. The under is 5-0 in Porcello's last 5 following a quality start in his last outing. The under is 7-0-1 in Carrapazza's last 8 Sunday games behind home plate. A 33-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The White Sox rank in the top five in the majors against lefties, and they aren't many lefties in the majors worse than Travis Wood. Wood has a ridiculous 1.84 WHIP so far this year. He has a 6.81 ERA on the season.

Derek Holland isn't any better. Holland has been miserable this year. In 7 of his last 16 starts, he has allowed a whopping six runs or more. When this guy is off his game, he is REALLY off his game. The Royals offense has been streaky and they have now scored 30 runs in their last three games.

A temperature in the low 90's will help the ball fly well here as well. There were six home runs hit in last night's heat in Kansas City.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber in this one. It's hard to overstate how good he has been since coming back from an injury on June 1 against Oakland. Kluber hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a single game during that time. He has struck out 10 batters or more in seven of his nine starts since that date. He has a ridiculous 11 walks compared to 94 strikeouts during that span. Kluber has been locked in.

J.A. Happ is a slightly better than average pitcher and the Indians are a little weaker against lefties than right handed pitching. The Indians have a .194 average against Happ in 65 plate appearances. The Blue Jays bullpen has been underrated this year, and they rank in the top ten in all advanced statistical categories. 

Sunday's are good under days in the majors in the long-term. In fact, Sunday is easily the best day to play unders in the past ten years. Games played in Cleveland with a total of 8.5 or higher and with the wind blowing in are 51-16 to the under (76.1%). 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jason Vargas has pitched well for the season as a whole, but there were signs of regression on the way for Vargas. He has had good BABIP luck and good strand rate luck as well. In his last two games, Vargas has been absolutely shelled. 

In this one, Vargas must take on a White Sox offense that ranks among the top three in the majors in offensive production against left handed pitchers. 

Mike Pelfrey isn't any good. I probably don't need to tell you that. Pelfrey doesn't miss bats and he is a guy who is prone to the big inning blowup. He'll face a Royals lineup here that is once again hot. They've been streaky all year long.

Mark Carlson is an umpire that lean towards the over. More importantly here, the game time temperature is set to be 100 degrees with the wind blowing out at 10 mph. You won't find better weather for an over than this.

Take the over.  

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Kansas City Royals scored 16 runs in thumping the Detroit Tigers last night. Kansas City has been a really streaky offense this year. The Royals go up against one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball in James Shields.

Shields is about as bad as you'll ever see at this point in his career. Shields has allowed 8 walks and struck out only 7 in his last three outings. Shields has a 5.10 ERA, but a whopping 6.82 FIP on the year. Shields has been very fortunate not to have even worse overall numbers. He could get blown up at any point. Shields is allowing a ridiculous 2.34 homers per nine innings.

Ian Kennedy is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and he has a 4.32 ERA and a 5.27 FIP on the year. Kennedy is a dangerous guy to count on at this point in his career.

A huge factor here is the gametime temperature of 95 degrees. What about the wind? It is expected to be blowing out at about 15 mph. Those factors with these fly ball pitchers makes this an over I have to play.

With the wind playing blowing out at least 6 mph and a temperature of 90 degrees or higher, the over is 21-9 in the last 30 games at Kauffman Stadium.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense is inconsistent, but they have some great potential. Francisco Liriano is dealing with neck discomfort the last few days and is pitching at less than 100 percent. Even at 100 percent, Liriano has been really bad this year. He walks more than 5 guys per nine innings. He puts so many guys on base that he is always walking the tightrope. 

Boston is much better against lefties than righties. The Red Sox have a .275 team batting average and a great .358 OBP against left handers this year. 

Doug Fister has been awful this year. Fister has nearly as many walks as he does strikeouts. He is allowing 1.56 homers per nine innings. His ERA is 6.75 and it isn't a fluke. 

While the Toronto offense has been a disappointment this year, I think they get to Fister in this one.

The wind blowing out and warm temperatures are key. In the past 10 years, with the wind blowing out and a temperature of 80 or higher, the over is cashing at a 62% clip at Fenway Park.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Brewers have been scuffling while the Pirates have heated up. Pittsburgh is winning lately thanks to some tremendous pitching. Both their starters and their bullpen have been amazing. The under is a whopping 22-5-1 in the Pirates last 28 games.

The Brewers offense is struggling a lot right now. Many of the young hitters who were so good for a long time this year are now in a slump. Jimmy Nelson has been pitching great though. Nelson has a whopping 52 strikeouts in his last 8 starts. He has a great track record against Pittsburgh. In 165 plate appearances against Nelson, Pittsburgh hitters have a weak .292 wOBA against him.

Jameson Taillon is a guy I like quite a bit. He doesn't walk many people and he has been great through his career at suppressing homers. 

The early start here is helpful especially since last night's game went into extra innings. Don't be surprised if some key names are out of the lineup.

Ryan Blakney is the umpire here and he is a very good under umpire. The under is 9-2 in his games this year and his strikes called percentage is in the top 10% of all umpires.

The under is 5-0 in the Brewers last 5 games. The under is 4-0-2 in Nelson's last 6 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in the Pirates last 5 following a win. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 5-0-1 in Taillon's last 6 starts. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Pittsburgh. A 29-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Tampa Bay Rays rank fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They face a very weak right hander in Chris Smith tonight. 

Smith is a 36 year old who is a career minor league guy. He's had a couple stops in the majors, but those have been in relief, and he was never very good there. Smith has an 86 mph fastball. When your fastball is 86 in the bigs, you better have great command and some great secondary pitches. Smith has neither. Look for Tampa Bay to get a lot of scoring chances here. It's important to note that the Oakland bullpen which has been a strength of this team is much weaker after trading Doolittle and Madson.

Blake Snell has walked at least three batters in all but two games he has started this year. It is very hard to walk people at that kind of rate and be productive in the majors. Snell gets himself into too many bad spots. Snell has a poor 4.85 ERA, but his SIERA is 5.56, which suggests he has been fortunate so far this season.

Oakland has been a good over team this year partially because they have committed more errors than any other team in baseball. 

Bill Welke is 34-16 to the over in his last 50 behind home plate as the umpire. He's been a solid over umpire for years.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night. While it will be a hot one at Coors Field, the wind will be blowing in a bit. More importantly, one of the very best under umpires in baseball is behind the plate. Ron Kulpa has a career 58% under win percentage. In a large sample size, that should tell you a lot about Kulpa. 

What about high totals? The under is 50-20 in Kulpa's last 70 games with a total of 9.5 or higher. That's a little better than 71%. Kulpa will help both of these young pitchers a great deal here.

I'm never excited to play an under at Coors Field, but it is important to keep in mind that the Padres have the worst offense in baseball. Additionally, the Padres bullpen has been really good in the last month. They have some youngsters throwing the ball well right now. 

The Rockies have been a good under team all year as this is a much improved bullpen in Colorado as well.

Dinelson Lamet has high strikeout upside and Antonio Senzatela has done a good job keeping the ball on the ground.

I'll take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The San Diego Padres bullpen has been a huge surprise this year. If you look at only the past month, the Padres have the single best SIERA of any bullpen in the majors. They are in the top five in all key bullpen numbers in the past month. 

The Phillies bullpen has been really bad for the year, but they actually rank in the top ten in all major categories in the past month as well. Some youngsters have improved of late in the pen for this team. I still don't trust this bullpen a lot, but they are up against a terrible offense in San Diego.

How bad are these offenses? The Phillies have an awful .299 weighted on base average. The Padres are even worse at .293. These are two of the three worst marks in baseball. 

Trevor Cahill has done a great job with his sinker this year. He's getting weak contact and a bunch of ground balls. Eickhoff is a pretty good youngster for the Phillies as well.

In the last game before the break and two bad teams playing- don't be surprised if there are a lot of quick outs as teams are ready to go home for their one break during the season. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals beat the Atlanta Braves in 10 innings last night. These are two bullpens that are among the worst in the majors. Washington has one of the five worst bullpens in baseball. The Braves are one of the bottom ten bullpens in baseball.

Julio Teheran hasn't been right this year. Teheran has pitched a bit better of late, but that was again inferior competition. Now, he'll take on a Nationals lineup that has been tearing the cover off the ball against right handers all year. 

Teheran's walk rate is up drastically from a year ago, and he has been really bad against this Nats lineup in the past. How bad? The Nationals have a .403 OBP and a whopping .445 wOBA (14 home runs) against Teheran.

Stephen Strasburg is obviously very good, but the Braves have given him trouble. They have a good lineup now with Freeman healthy again. Strasburg has allowed a .340 OBP and a .373 wOBA to the Braves. He's been particularly bad against them at home. The over is 36-16-4 in Strasburg's last 56 home starts overall, and he gets great run support in general. 

The temperature in the high 80's helps here as well.

The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. the Braves. The over is 4-0-1 in Teheran's last 5 starts vs. the Nationals. The over is 6-0 in home plate umpire Jordan Baker's last 6 games behind the dish. A combined 14-0 trend.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals are second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching this year. Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper are on fire of late. This is a deep lineup that has a lot of run producers.

Mike Foltynewicz is coming off a start where he had a no hitter through 8 innings, but remember this is a guy with a FIP, SIERA, and xFIP all above 4.5. He has had several clunkers this year, and this could easily be another.

Gio Gonzalez is due for some major regression. Gonzalez has a 2.77 ERA, but a FIP and xFIP of 4.19 and 4.30. Also, Gonzalez has a terrible track record against the Braves. This Atlanta lineup has a .384 OBP and a .385 wOBA against him.

The weather is favorable here with winds blowing out at 8 mph. 

Both of these bullpens are completely unreliable. Washington is without Glover now and he was their most reliable guy. Atlanta has no bullpen depth either.

Take the over in this one. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the WEEK* The Boston Red Sox offense is on fire right now. Boston has scored 7 runs or more in each of their last five games. This is a scary lineup when healthy, and they are healthy now.

The Texas Rangers have scored 31 runs in their last five games, so the Rangers offense has been very good of late as well.

This is the time of the year where the ball flies very well in Texas. The heat is really helpful and this is a great hitter-friendly park in July and August. 

Both of these pitchers are guys I would expect to get hit hard here. Andrew Cashner has a SIERA of almost 6, and this Boston offense is likely to torch him. Doug Fister has a career ERA of 8.59 when pitching at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. 

In the Rangers last 9 home games, 7 of those games have finished at 12 runs or higher. Not many of them have had worse pitching matchups. 

We draw a guy who is a decent over umpire here in Bruce Dreckman as well. He rates in the top 30% of over umpires according to my umpire spreadsheet. 

The over is 5-0 in the Rangers last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in Boston's last 4 road games. The over is 5-0 in Boston's last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. A 22-0 angle.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Corey Kluber has been absolutely dominating hitters of late. Kluber's domination has been mind boggling. He has allowed a grand total of 3 earned runs in his last four starts. In that span, he has 46 strikeouts and only 4 walks. You don't get much better than that. 

In this one, Kluber faces a Padres lineup that is worse than any lineup he has faced this year. He should make quick work of this lineup. San Diego strikes out a bunch, and Kluber is clearly on his strikeout game of late. 

Trevor Cahill starts for San Diego and he's been good this year. His advanced statistics suggest his low ERA is no fluke. He does a good job getting soft contact and getting batters to hit the ball on the ground.

The wind is blowing in at 10 mph here, and that's a nice bonus.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* This is a very early start time. These two teams aren't accustomed to this kind of start time, and I think that helps the under. Why? Anything that throws off the body clock is generally good for the under in every sport. I don't think baseball is any different. The players go through the motions in these spots more often than normal and we see quick at bats.

The other main reason for the under here is the lineups are going to look a lot different than normal. Yoenis Cespedes is out with an injury here. Michael Conforto is out with an injury. Granderson is questionable. 

Trea Turner is a big loss for the Nats and I think other Nats may sit here. The Nationals played Sunday night baseball and then traveled late. They played last night and now play an 11 am eastern game. This is a classic sit some starters spot.

Seth Lugo has been pretty good this year and Joe Ross has added a decent changeup to his arsenal in his last few outings. 

Given what the lineups will look like, I think this total is at least a full run too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Monday Night MONEY* The New York Yankees offense is very good, but they are pretty hobbled right now. Starlin Castro, Matt Holliday, Aaron Hicks, and Greg Bird are all out of the lineup. 

The Toronto Blue Jays lineup has lots of potential, but they have struggled to put it together in key situations this year.

Masahiro Tanaka is an inconsistent pitcher, but he is showing some very positive signs in recent outings. After allowing a rash of homers for a while, Tanaka hasn't allowed a home run in either of his last two starts. He has 32 strikeouts in his last four starts. He has a 5.56 ERA, but his xFIP is 3.90 and Tanaka seems to have improved command inside the zone in his last few starts.

Marcus Stroman has been very good this year. Stroman has an impressive 10.4% swinging strike rate. 

Stroman and Tanaka have both been great against their opponent in this one. The Yankees hitters have a miserable .238 OBP and a .245 weighted on base average against Stroman. The Blue Jays hitters have an even worse .218 OBP and a .233 wOBA against Tanaka.

The wind is blowing in a little here, and we have two very good bullpens.

The under is 9-1 in Tanaka's last 10 vs. Toronto. The under is 5-1 in Stroman's last 6 starts vs. the Yankees.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Sunday Night Baseball Red Hot CASH* Max Scherzer has been absolutely amazing of late. How good? Scherzer has allowed 1 run or less in 5 of his last 7 starts. He hasn't allowed more than 3 in any of those starts. 

Scherzer has only 8 walks in his last seven starts. In that same span, Scherzer has 75 strikeouts. He is just blowing people away on a consistent basis. 

Carlos Martinez has gotten much better as a starter in the last year. Martinez has developed his secondary pitches nicely, and he is turning into a viable ace for this Cardinals team. 

Both of these offenses are good, but they are both inconsistent. The Nationals will miss Trea Turner at the top of the lineup as well.

St. Louis has struggled with runners in scoring position most of the year, and Scherzer has been able to buckle down in those spots throughout his career.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Tim Adleman hasn't been sharp at all of late. Adleman has walked 13 batters in his last four starts. He has also allowed 7 home runs in those last four starts. He's been fortunate to not allow even more runs than he has of late. The bottom line though: if you continually walk guys and give up hard contact and the long ball at a high rate, you won't have much success in this league.

While the Cubs haven't been consistent on offense this year, they do have a lot of power and that could be a problem for Adleman on Sunday.

Jake Arrieta has been disappointing this year. Arrieta is struggling to locate his pitches right now. The Reds lineup isn't tremendous, but they are much better than expected and Joey Votto is on fire in the middle of the order right now.

John Tumpane is a tremendous over umpire and he's behind the dish here. Winds out at about 10 mph and 87 degrees in Cincinnati means the ball will fly very well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Thursday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres are hitting a miserable .213 against lefties this year. That's easily the worst mark in the league. The Padres have a weighted on base average against lefties of only .277. The second worst mark in the majors is .291. 

Jaime Garcia isn't a great lefty, but he shouldn't have to be great against San Diego to have a good outing here. Garcia has a 4.03 ERA on the year, and he's coming off a bad start, but his soft contact percentage is up this year and overall he's had a decent season.

Dinelson Lamet has a really high upside. This is a guy with multiple plus pitches, and he's going to strike out a bunch of batters in his career. Lamet is a perfect fit for this park too. He gives up a lot of fly balls, but that's a big plus at a park like this one.

The Braves rank 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching, so this is a favorable matchup for Lamet.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Minnesota Twins start Kyle Gibson here. Gibson has an awful 6.23 ERA on the year. His FIP is 5.60 and his SIERA is 5.39. Gibson is giving up a ton of hard contact (38.2%). He's walking 4.57 batters per nine innings, and he's allowing 1.52 homers per nine. He's capable of once in a while throwing a gem, but he is usually really bad.

David Price has had a finger injury. Price is allowing nearly 2 home runs per nine innings this year, which is easily the highest of his career. Price has a 4.76 ERA and a 5.70 FIP so far this year. He hasn't been himself, and this Twins lineup has several very good hitters in the middle of the order. 

The weather is a big factor in this play for me. The temperature will be 75 degrees and the winds are blowing out toward left field at 15 mph or higher through this game. When the temperature is 72 degrees or higher and winds are blowing out to center or left at Fenway, the over is 72-41 in the last 113 contests (64% over).

The over is 4-0 in Gibson's last 4 starts vs. the AL East. The over is a whopping 11-0 in Price's last 11 starts following a quality start in his last outing. A 15-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays have been amazing against right handed pitching this year. The Rays are fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching and they are first in the majors in ISO against righties. Tampa Bay faces an average right handed starter here in Ivan Nova. Nova doesn't walk anyone, but he also doesn't strike hardly anyone out (less than six per nine innings this year). 

John Tumpane is the umpire here, and he's one of the better over umpires in baseball. Tumpane has a small strike zone and I think that hurts Tampa Bay's Blake Snell a good amount here. Snell has always had trouble finding the strike zone, and Tumpane won't make it easy on him. Snell has walked more than 5 batters per nine innings in his big league career, and his minor league walk numbers aren't much better.

The over is 5-0 in Snell's last 5 starts. The over is 59-29-2 in the Rays last 90 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 11-2-1 in the Pirates last 14 interleague home games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox are hitting a miserable .245 against right handed pitching this year. The Yankees have been tremendous against righties, but they are hitting an ugly .242 against lefties.

Luis Severino is a good young right hander for the Yankees. Severino has a 3.30 ERA and a 3.17 xFIP. He's backed by a Yankees bullpen that is back intact with Chapman healthy once again. This is clearly one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Jose Quintana pitched into some really bad luck early this year, but he has four good starts in a row. Quintana has proven himself as a good pitcher in the last few seasons, and right now the oddsmakers are still too low on him. The White Sox have one of the top ten bullpens in baseball as well.

The early sharp money is clearly on the under here. I agree and we have a decent umpire in Wolf and moderate weather with light wind here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros start Mike Fiers here. Fiers was terrible at the start of the season, but he has been amazing of late. In Fiers' last three starts, he has thrown just over 20 innings, and he has given up only 10 hits during that span. In his last five starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less in each outing. 

What's behind Fiers improvement? He is getting more ground balls (giving up less homers obviously) and getting soft contact. His hard contact rate is only 27.9% compared to 35.3% a year ago. 

The A's offense is hitting only .246 against Fiers as a unit. Oakland strikes out a lot and Fiers strikes 7.73 batters per nine innings.

Sean Manaea is a young guy I'm very high on. Manaea has excellent stuff, and as long as he has his control I like his chances of slowing down Houston here. The Astros are hitting only .171 against him in a career 122 plate appearances. 

The under got a reverse line movement trigger at Pinnacle earlier today, and there has been some clear sharp support for the under at the key level of 9.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox offense has been really streaky so far this year. Boston has scored 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 10 games. The Red Sox are struggling to string together hits on a consistent basis. 

Jose Berrios has a magnificent curveball, and I think he can keep the Red Sox bats honest here if he stays in his current form. Berrios is giving up hard contact on only 22.8% of batted balls, and that's a tremendous figure. He hasn't given up more than 4 runs in a game this year, and he's allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his 8 starts.

Chris Sale has been the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball this year. The Twins have a good offense, but it isn't elite. Sale has a 2.85 ERA this year, but his xFIP is 2.63 and his FIP is only 1.97. If anything, he's been unlucky. 

The temperature won't be very hot at Fenway here, which means less carry for the ball.

The under is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0-1 in Berrios' last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 following a quality start in his last outing. A 30-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFL Red HOT CASH* There are a couple strong angles backing the under in this one. Early games in the CFL have stayed under the total consistently through the years. The public pushes up the numbers, and it has happened again here. This number is a full three points higher than it opened, and those 3 points could prove very valuable.

The under is 17-5 in Hamilton's last 22 games in the month of June. The under is 16-5 in Toronto's last 21 games played in the month of June. 

Here's a simple strong angle for you. In a team's first 6 games of the season in the CFL, the under is 51-31 (62%) when the total is 53 or higher. Tighten that up to a game where the home team is between -2 and +5 on the spread line, and the under is 18-4 in the last 22 contests.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been tremendous against right handed pitching this year. This Rays team has a ton of power, and they can rack up the homers in a hurry. 

Chris Tillman is throwing the ball as bad as any pitcher in the majors coming into this game. Tillman has allowed a minimum of 5 runs in each of his last 5 starts. His velocity is down and Tillman isn't fooling anyone right now. He has changed his arm slot around and it appears he may still be having shoulder problems.

Jake Odorizzi has an ERA of 3.78, but a FIP of 5.34 so far this year. He has a low BABIP of .238, which should regress to the mean. Odorizzi has a home run problem this year, and the Orioles are another team that can smash a bunch of homers. 

These are two of the five worst bullpens in the majors right now, and I expect scoring chances late here.

The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 vs. the AL East. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in Tillman's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 9-0 in the Rays last 9 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 11-0 in the Rays last 11 games played on turf. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in Odorizzi's last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 51-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I have to play the over here. Homer Bailey is making his first big league start after a major injury, and I don't think he'll pitch deep into the game. The Reds bullpen is gassed right now, and they have 5.47 FIP in the last two weeks. 

Joe Ross starts for the Nationals. He's really inconsistent and he usually doesn't pitch deep into the game either. The Nationals have a 5.34 FIP in the last two week.

These are definitely two of the worst bullpens in baseball, and they should be in the game for quite a few innings. 

The Reds offense has been underrated this year, and the Nationals offense has been the most consistent in the NL.

Paul Emmel is the umpire behind the plate. The over is 8-5 in his games this year. The over was 14-13 in his games last year. The over was 18-14 in his games in 2015. The over was 18-10 in his games behind the plate in 2014. Some impressive consistency to the over from him.

A 91 degree temperature at gametime is helpful here as well.

The over is 5-0 in the Reds last 5 vs. a righty. The over is 4-0 in the Nationals last 4 home games. The over is 7-0-1 in Ross' last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in Ross' last 4 starts following a quality start. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Montreal has an elite defense, and a really bad offense. Obviously, that is exactly what we want to see with an under. Montreal has been a noted slow starter in terms of scoring as well. The under is a whopping 20-3 in Montreal's last 23 games in the month of June. 

In the last 8 matchups between these two teams, only one of them has gone over the posted total while in regulation. 

A game played in June or July where the home team is favored by 5 to 12 points in the CFL- The under is an amazing 37-13 in the last 50 games that meet this criteria. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates battle on Thursday afternoon.

Chase Anderson has been really good of late for Milwaukee. Anderson is a streaky pitcher, and right now he is in the zone. Anderson has a 2.92 ERA and a 3.38 FIP. He has been getting a lot of pop ups of late, so hitters aren't squaring up on his pitches very often. 

Anderson is at his best at home, and during the daytime. Anderson has a 2.03 ERA at home this year (3.61 in his career). He has a 3.36 career ERA in day games, and this year that number is 2.68. He's made nine starts this year under a retractable roof being closed (Miller Park's roof will likely be closed due to hot temperatures and rain chances here), and in those 9 games he has a 1.73 ERA.

Ivan Nova pitches to contact, but I love the fact that he virtually never walks anyone. That generally helps him limit damage. 

Dan Bellino is the umpire here, and only one game he has called has gone over the total this year. In his career 55.5% of his games have stayed under. 

It's a get away day game and some of the better hitters might sit this one out.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Tyson Ross and Joe Biagini are the starters in this one Wednesday night in Texas.

Ross is a guy who walks a ton of batters, and that usually comes back to bite you in a park like this, especially against a good offense. Ross walked 5.30 batters per nine innings in four Triple A starts this year. He had a 7.71 ERA and 6.71 FIP in the minors. He pitched well in his first big league start, but I think he'll have a tough time against this deep Blue Jays lineup. He doesn't pitch deep in the game and the Rangers bullpen isn't good at all.

Biagini has had declining velocity in his last few starts, and he's been prone to blowups on occasion. Pitching in Texas in 90 degree heat and against a lineup that is very good against right handed pitching is a tough matchup for him.

Sam Holbrook is the umpire here, and over umpires don't come much better than Holbrook. The over has hit 55.6% of the time in his games behind home plate in his career.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves have a very good .272 batting average and a .339 OBP against lefties this year. Matt Moore isn't a good left handed pitcher. Moore gives up a ton of hard contact. How much? An amazing 41% of batted balls against him are hit hard. That's one of the three worst marks in the majors. No wonder this guy has an ERA above 6.

Julio Teheran has an ERA over 7 at home this year. Teheran has a 4.86 ERA, but his FIP is 5.67 and his xFIP is 5.43. Teheran's walk rate has doubled from last year. He's allowing nearly 2 home runs per every nine innings pitched. The Giants offense has been much better on the road than at home. 

Both of these bullpens rank among the ten worst in baseball. Rain is possible here, and if we do get rain it won't be a terrible thing to see a lot of the bullpens.

The over is 8-0-1 in Matt Moore's last 9 road starts. The over is 3-0-1 in the Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0-1 in Moore's last 7 starts following a Giants loss in the previous game. The over is 6-0 in Teheran's last 6 following a quality start in his last outing. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 with five days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts after the Braves score 5 runs or more. Paul Emmel is a great over umpire long term and the over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 behind the plate. A 42-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Gio Gonzalez isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Gonzalez doesn't quite have the same dominant curveball he once did, and his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA are at the worst point they have been since his rookie season. The Marlins smash left handed pitching. Miami ranks in the top 5 in the majors in almost all categories against lefties. The Marlins have a solid .350 OBP as a team against Gio Gonzalez in his career.

Edinson Volquez had a real nice couple game stretch with the no hitter included, but this isn't a guy I trust at all. Volquez is giving up more hard contact this year, and his SIERA is 4.81. He'll be up against a Washington lineup that has been the most consistent lineup in the National League this year. 

Neither of these bullpens are any good. In the late innings, there should be plenty more chances to score. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals offense is really streaky, and they have been hot of late. I think the Cardinals are one of the best offenses in the NL, and I expect them to keep hitting the ball well. 

Jeremy Hellickson has been awful this year. Hellickson is striking out only 3.97 batters per nine innings. That's awful. He has an xFIP of 6.09 and he has been in terrible form of late. St. Louis should get to him and then the Phillies terrible bullpen is in.

Mike Leake started the season hot, but he's been hit hard of late. Leake has allowed 18 runs in his last 4 starts.

The wind will be blowing out at 10 mph with a temperature of 80 at the start of this game. Those are certainly favorable conditions. 

The over is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The over is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 2-0-2 in Hellickson's last 4 home starts. A 22-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Robbie Ray has started six games on the road this year. He has allowed a grand total of four runs in those six road starts. Ray has thrown a shutout in his last three straight road contests. He has allowed 4, 2, and 2 hits in those three starts. Simply put, Ray has been absolutely dominating on the road. Ray has an ERA almost 2 full runs lower on the road in his career than at home, so his outperformance on the road is nothing new.

Ray will be up against a bad offense in the Philadelphia Phillies in this one. Philadelphia has a terrible .224 batting average against lefties on the season. 

Ben Lively has been solid in his first three starts for the Phillies. Lively was pretty good in the minors, and he suppresses home runs about as well as anyone.

The Diamondbacks offense has great numbers overall for the year, but they aren't even close to as good away from home. Arizona has only a .288 weighted on base average on the road. At home, their wOBA is .372.

The under is 31-14 in the DBacks last 45 road games. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* In his career as an umpire, Ron Kulpa has been one of the best under umpires in baseball. Kulpa has seen 57.5% of games stay under the posted total when he is behind home plate. 

Jacob Degrom has pitched into some bad luck this year. I'm confident he'll have a good year again by the time the season is through. His strikeout rate is actually up this year, but he's been victimized by bad batted ball luck. 

Degrom has excelled in two areas in his career. He has been great at home. Degrom has a 2.14 ERA at Citi Field. Also, Degrom has been superb when pitching in day games. Degrom has an amazing 1.78 ERA in 31 starts during the daytime in his career.

Joe Ross is inconsistent, but he has good stuff. Kulpa should help him quite a bit, and I see this Mets offense as a little overvalued right now.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The White Sox have been great at making lefties work hard, and they've been able to string together a lot of big innings against lefties (something they rarely do against righties). 

J.A. Happ has been inconsistent in his first few starts back from an injury. He'll be tested by the White Sox here.

James Shields is a guy I'm really low on. Shields is way past his prime. He doesn't have the control he did in the past. Shields isn't getting swings at pitches outside the zone like he did in the past either. He is coming off a shoulder injury and gets thrown into the fire against a good Blue Jays lineup.

Mark Wegner is a good over umpire. He's consistent among the bottom 10 umpires in the majors in percentage of pitches called a strike. 

I think both teams put up several runs here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Adam Wainwright isn't the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Wainwright has a swinging strike rate of only 7.9%. He has a SIERA of almost 5. Wainwright has been able to be good at home, but his road ERA this year is a miserable 7.28.

Wade Miley has finally come back down to earth hard of late. Miley is having major control problems this year, and he's been wild both inside and outside of the zone. That has led to increased hard contact and some major problems in general for Miley. 

The weather will be a big help here. It is expected to be 85 degrees with 12-14 mph winds blowing out during this game. 

The Orioles bullpen is one of my lowest ranked bullpens in the majors without Zach Britton. They have some long guys who are simply overmatched right now. Miley isn't likely to stay in the game long. The Cardinals offense is much deeper than the average NL offense, and that helps a lot in an interleague game.

The over is 7-0 in the Cardinals last 7 interleague games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in Wainwright's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their last game. The over is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5 interleague home games. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A combined 41-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The over has been on a big run in Oakland games of late, and I think that is creating some nice value for us on the under here. The A's are a team that strikes out a bunch. Luis Severino is averaging 10.04 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Severino hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any of his last five starts. With young pitchers, recent form matters quite a bit to me. 

Sean Manaea is a guy I like quite a bit. Manaea is good at getting guys to chase bad pitches. He has excellent movement on all of his stuff.

The Yankees are first in the majors in wOBA against righties, but they are only 13th against lefties, and Manea is a good lefty. 

This is clearly still a park that is pitcher-friendly as well.

I'll take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Totals Trends SMASHER* The Chicago White Sox consistently rank among the worst teams in the majors against right handed pitching. The White Sox strike out at a high rate, and their hard contact rate is one of the worst in the majors against righties. 

Joe Biagini has impressed me a lot this year. Biagini has a 3.38 ERA and a 2.83 FIP. He is walking only 1.93 batters per nine innings, so his control is excellent. He should be able to avoid big innings against this weak White Sox lineup.

Jose Quintana has been subpar this year, but he has superb numbers in Toronto in his career, and Quintana is a guy who I believe will improve from now through the end of the year. Quintana has allowed a grant total of zero runs in his last 19 and 2/3 innings pitched in Toronto. He has 7 walks and 24 strikeouts in that span. 

The White Sox bullpen is slightly above average and the Blue Jays bullpen has been excellent in the past month (top six in the majors). 

The under is 23-4-1 in Quintana's last 28 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. Toronto. The under is 4-0 in Biagini's last 4 starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Justin Verlander hasn't been the same pitcher this year. Verlander has a 4.68 ERA and a 4.92 SIERA. Verlander is giving up way more hard contact this year (38% vs. only 28% last year). He no longer suppresses home runs as he did in the past. 

Tampa Bay ranks fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rays are third in the majors with 103 homers on the year. 

Alex Cobb is giving up a bunch of hard contact as well (38.3%) and the Tigers offense is better than they have shown so far this year. Miguel Cabrera is way better than his numbers would suggest, and I think the Tigers offense is going to regress to the mean by scoring a lot of runs in the coming weeks. 

These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball. Both are clearly in the bottom five in baseball. 

The over is 7-0 in the Rays last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 7-0 in Cobb's last 7 during game one of a series. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. The over is 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 26-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chris Tillman is an absolute mess right now. It seems very likely that Tillman is still injured. 

Tillman has lost 1.6 miles per hour off his fastball from last year. He is throwing a fastball on only 43% of pitches vs. 56% of pitches last year (injury?). Most interesting to me is Tillman's vertical release point changes from last year. Tillman is dropping down his arm significantly, and it isn't working at all. The most common reason for dropping your arm angle is a shoulder injury, and Tillman is coming off a shoulder injury.

David Holmberg isn't a guy I trust at all. Holmberg has never been all that good in the minors, and he is too wild. The Orioles have plenty of pop in their bats and I think they'll put up several on him here.

Both bullpens are no better than mediocre in the past month. The temperature for this one is expected to be 91 degrees with winds out at about 10 mph for this game. The ball should carry really well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* First things first, the weather here is a big reason why I like this play. The temperature is expected to be 84 degrees with the wind blowing out to center at 16 mph. Target Field has seen 47 overs and 32 unders in the last 79 games when the wind is blowing out at least 8 mph. 

Ariel Miranda has been pretty good at home, but on the road he has been a mess. He has a 5.68 ERA on the road this year. Miranda is a guy who gives up a lot of fly balls and the Twins have plenty of guys who can take him deep.

Jose Berrios will be up against a red hot Mariners lineup here. Seattle benefits a lot from Haniger being back in the lineup. Berrios has a BABIP against of only .231 and he's stranding 83% of runners on base. Those are numbers that suggest regression is coming.  The Twins bullpen is arguably the worst in baseball right now, and I don't expect Berrios to go any more than 6 innings here.

This has been a high scoring series. I think we see another high scoring affair.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros offense is one of the best in the league. Houston is capable of putting up a big number at any time. 

Andrew Cashner has a 5.85 SIERA this year. Cashner still has more walks than strikeouts on the year. Anytime you go this far into the season and have more walks than strikeouts, you aren't very good. Cashner's velocity is the lowest it has been at any point in his career.

Francis Martes starts here for the Astros. Martes hasn't proven anything at any level above Double A. Martes walked nearly 8 batters per every nine innings in Triple A this year. He had a 5.29 ERA and a 5.95 FIP. I don't expect a guy like that to come up and have success quickly in the majors.

Manny Gonzalez is the umpire here and he's one of the best over umpires in the business. The over is 35-15-1 in his last 51 games behind the plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ron Kulpa has been an under machine in his career as an umpire. The under is a whopping 218-160 in his career. That's 58% of games finishing under the posted total when he's behind the dish. That's way too big of a number to ignore.

Whenever Kulpa is behind the dish, if I lean to the under at all, I go ahead and take the under. Jake Odorizzi has some very good career numbers against Toronto's hitters. Francisco Liriano has looked better to me in his last couple starts after coming back from an injury.

The Rays offense has been terrible against lefties this year. The Blue Jays bullpen has quietly been one of the best in baseball in the last month or so.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sun and Liberty square off tonight. Both of these teams are coming off very high scoring games. The Sun's last game went 16.5 points over the total and the Liberty's last game went 20.5 points over the posted total.

In the WNBA in the past, betting the under when both teams are off games that soared over the total has been a great way to look. 

-When the total is 146.5 or higher, and the road team is coming off a game 7 points or more above the total and the home team is coming off a game 11 points or more over the total, the under is 115-72 (61.5%) in the next game. 

-If you tighten it up to totals of 160 or higher, the under is 65% in these spots.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There is a strong system backing the under in this one. Seattle has been an over machine of late and that is starting to inflate their numbers. 

Here's a look at the system. When both the home and road teams went over the total by at least 3.5 points in their last game and the posted total for the current game is 161 or higher, the under is a whopping 67-35 (65.7% wins) in the last 102 plays. 

If you tighten the system and say the home team had to have a game go 10 points or more over the total (Seattle's did last game), the under is 50-23 (68.5%).

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NBA Finals CRUSHER* The Cleveland Cavaliers averaged a ridiculous 1.361 points per possession in their win in game four. That is the worst defensive efficiency number Golden State has posted all year. 

Cleveland's record setting scoring means this total has been moved up by several points. While I don't love playing unders in the matchup between these two teams, this number is too high for me to pass it up. 

The pace has slowed down as the series has moved along here, and that generally happens as things tighten up and there is more importance on that game. Without record shooting numbers, it is hard to get a total score of 232 points. 

The regular season meetings between these two finished at 217. This is the highest total in NBA finals history. I'll look for a high scoring game, but not this high. The defenses improve here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under on Indians/White Sox.*

I am currently traveling and unable provide a full writeup as I normally do. This selection has been researched and analyzed as all of my plays are. Full writeups will be back in a few days. Thanks for understanding and good luck on this selection and all of your plays today.

Start the week off right with a winner! Guaranteed! 

*4 Star Play Under on A's/Rays under in 2nd game of Doubleheader*

This is a doubleheader and in many of these we see some of the top players sit. With weaker lineups and one of the top under umpires in the game, Doug Eddings behind the plate, this is a good value on the under.

Take note that this play is on game two with Manaea and Andriese as the starters

*3 Star Red Sox/Yankees Total* The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox square off on Thursday night. The Yankees start Michael Pineda here and the Red Sox start David Price. 

Both of these pitchers are somewhat inconsistent, but they have huge strikeout potential. They both have a tendency to give up more home runs than normal, but with cool temperatures and winds blowing in at about 8 to 10 mph at gametime.

In the past five years, the under has cashed at a 59% clip at Yankee Stadium with a temperature of 70 degrees or lower and wind in of 5 mph or more.

Vic Carapazza is one of the best under umpires in baseball, and he's behind the plate here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Milwaukee Brewers host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night. Milwaukee's Jimmy Nelson and San Francisco's Ty Blach have both pitched well in recent outings, but long term looks at their stats suggest these guys are no better than mediocre.

Tom Woodring is the umpire here, and he is a very good over umpire. He'll pinch the zone and make things more difficult on the starters here.

The over is 19-10-3 in the Giants road games so far this year. The over is 21-12 in the Brewers 33 home games this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike in the last five years. Eddings has been on an over run of late, but this guy is unquestionably a good under umpire. In fact, he is one of the best. Anytime you are getting 2% or more of a difference in called strikes from the average umpire, this is a good under umpire.

David Price wasn't extremely sharp in his first start back, but he wasn't bad either. A key thing I noticed was his velocity was up a good amount from last year. Price has a 2.25 ERA in three starts with Eddings behind home plate. He also has a solid 3.14 ERA in 10 career starts in Baltimore.

Dylan Bundy has changed the way he is pitching this year. Bundy has been getting good results out of his slider. The Red Sox lineup has been really inconsistent this year, and they are without Dustin Pedroia right now.

The wind is set to be blowing in at about 6 mph at gametime for this one. With the wind blowing in and a total of 7.5 or higher, the under is a whopping 126-70 in the last 196 games at Camden Yards.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Great American Ballpark has the nickname "Great American Smallpark." While the park doesn't always play extremely small, when the weather heats up, the park is definitely very tough on pitchers.

In the past ten years, when the temperature is 77 degrees or warmer during a game played in Cincinnati, the over is 193-141 (57.7%). 

R.A. Dickey has been awful this year. He appears to have stayed around too long in the majors. He isn't fooling anyone right now, and his advanced metrics don't show many signs of things getting better. 

Scott Feldman is giving up a lot of line drives, and I suspect he'll give up a lot of homers in the warm weather in Cincinnati this summer. 

The Braves have some red hot hitters in their lineup, and the Braves bullpen is bad. The Reds have been better than expected on offense, and the Reds bullpen has fallen off pretty dramatically in recent weeks.

Mark Wegner is one of the better over umpires in baseball and he's behind the plate here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Indians are hitting only .236 against lefties so far this year. The Indians are better than that average against lefties, but they have been consistently better against right handed pitching than lefties over the last few years. 

Sean Manaea has some excellent stuff, and I expect him to have a lot of success in the majors. Manaea has improved his FIP, xFIP, and SIERA from last year. A horrible strand rate of just 59% means he is due for some positive regression as far as his ERA. Manaea is a young pitcher who has multiple go to swing and miss pitches. His swinging strikes rate is an awesome 13.6%. That's a guy with a high upside. His one problem has been his control, but he'll be helped by a bigger strike zone than normal with Mark Ripperger behind home plate for this one. 

Mike Clevinger has developed into a better pitcher than many people expected him to be. Clevinger should have enough weapons to slow down this poor Oakland offense. He has been getting batters to swing at more bad balls this year, and that has brought his swinging strike rate up. 

Ripperger is a very good under umpire, and the weather should be good for an under here. The forecast calls for 65 degrees and winds in from center field at about 10 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather and the home plate umpire are two major reasons I'm taking the over in this game. The wind is blowing out to left center field in this game at about 12 mph. The home plate umpire is Sam Holbrook. You won't find a better over umpire than Holbrook.

Holbrook has called the lowest percentage of pitches a strike of any umpire so far this year. The over has hit in 56.3% of games called by Holbrook in his career. 

Mike Fiers has been awful this year. Fiers has an ERA over 6 on the road this year (it was 4.99 last year too). He has allowed a mind boggling 11 home runs in 24 innings on the road this year. The Twins have enough power with Holbrook squeezing the zone and the wind blowing out to knock a couple out here.

Jose Berrios is looking very good of late, but Houston's offense is as hot as anyone in baseball. The Twins bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, and even if Berrios pitches well the Astros are liable to torch the bullpen like they did yesterday.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Over* These bullpens both rank in the five worst bullpens in baseball. Tampa Bay's SIERA is actually the single worst of any team. Tampa Bay has spent up their bullpen the last couple nights and they had to call up a guy from the minors to be an extra reliever for this game. 

Matt Andriese is a serviceable pitcher, but this Rangers lineup is very good. Adrian Beltre is back in the lineup and that's a big key. Andriese isn't likely to pitch very deep into the game.

I've never been a fan of Nick Martinez. He may be slightly improved this year, but he is still giving up long balls at a high rate. This Tampa Bay team is second in the majors in home runs. They should give him trouble here.

Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire, and he's an excellent over umpire. 

The weather is heating up in Texas and the ball will be flying better in this park now. 

The over is 24-7-1 in Texas' last 32 games vs. a team with a winning record. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Manny Gonzalez is one of the very best over umpires in the game. The over is 6-1 in his 7 games behind the plate this year. The over is 84-64 (57% wins) in his career.

Zach Davies is walking too many guys this year, and he is giving up more fly balls and home runs. Davies isn't a bad pitcher, but I do think this Mets offense that has been hot will put several across here.

Tyler Pill starts for the Mets here. Pill is making his big league starting debut. Pill had a 7.60 ERA two years ago in Triple A and a 5.60 ERA last year in Triple A. In five starts this year, he was successful there, but that was due to multiple fortunate factors. I don't think he is likely to be very good for the Mets in general, and this Brewers lineup has a lot of dangerous bats.

The wind is blowing out at 8 mph and at Citi Field all time with the wind blowing out 8 mph or more the over is hitting at a 57% clip.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total Value* Bill Miller has been better to me when betting unders than any other umpire in the majors. More than 65% are strikes in games Miller umpires, which is 2% higher than the average umpire. That 2% doesn't sound like much, but trust me that makes a big difference. Miller is a great under umpire.

Chris Tillman has pretty good numbers in his career against the Yankees. He has only allowed one home run against this lineup in his career. Jacoby Ellsbury is out of the lineup and that hurts the Yankees some.

Luis Severino has really impressed me this year. He has taken the next step so far this year. Severino gave up 4 runs at Baltimore earlier this year, but that was due to poor batted ball luck. He has been great on the road overall this year.

The under is 20-8 in Tillman's last 28 home starts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Arizona Diamondbacks are hitting .273 against right handed pitching this year. They are scoring 5.52 runs per game against right handed pitching. Trevor Williams is worse than the average right handed pitcher right now. Williams has a 5.93 ERA and a 4.89 FIP on the year thus far. He doesn't have good command of many of his pitches, and that leads to a lot of mistakes.

Randall Delgado starts for the Diamondbacks. He's been tried several times as a starter, and it never really worked out. Because they are short on starters with Shelby Miller out with an injury, the DBacks turned to Delgado again. I don't see it working out this time around either. Delgado has a history of wildness in a starting role.

The Pirates offense should improve with Polanco back and Adam Frazier swinging a red hot bat. Andrew McCutchen isn't what he used to be, but he is better than his current numbers suggest.

The over is 5-0-1 in the Pirates last 6. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after a loss. The over is 5-0-1 in the Pirates last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in Delgado's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. An 18-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Many people know that the Washington Nationals are excellent against left handed pitching. Washington is first in wOBA against lefties. Who is second? The Chicago White Sox. 

The White Sox have a .365 wOBA, which is almost equal to Washington's .368. The White Sox have a .288 batting average against lefties and are averaging 5.88 runs per nine innings off lefties.

The Boston Red Sox stunned me by getting shut out by Christian Bergman yesterday, but this is a good offense. Boston has a .350 OBP vs. lefties and they are averaging 4.54 runs per nine innings off them.

David Price was rocked in Triple A in his rehab starts. Price was very inconsistent last year. He is on a pitch count here as well.

David Holmberg starts for the White Sox, and he isn't big league material as a starter.

The wind is blowing out at 15-20 mph during this one. This has led to better than 55% overs in the past 10 years.

Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* Clayton Kershaw takes the mound against Jon Lester in a terrific pitching matchup to close this series of two of the best teams in the National League. 

Blindly betting the under has been a good move when Kershaw is on the mound. The under is 80-58 in Kershaw's 138 starts in the majors. That's a 58% win rate for the under. 

Kershaw is baseball's best pitcher, and his consistency is what impresses me the most. He has a 2.18 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Cubs. How has Kershaw done with home plate umpire Dan Iassogna behind the dish? Kershaw has a dazzling 1.17 ERA in five career starts with Iassogna calling the balls and strikes.

Jon Lester is a really good lefty as well. As good as the Dodgers offense is against right handed pitching, the Dodgers struggle against lefties. The Dodgers are hitting .262 against righties and .238 against lefties this year. Lester has a 1.76 ERA in two starts with Iassogna. Lester also has great splits when pitching during the day. At night his ERA is 3.59 and during the day it is 3.12. 

These are two excellent bullpens which make me feel better about playing a low under.

Both pitchers are at their best when facing a good team. The under is 28-12-1 in Lester's last 41 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 35-14-2 in Kershaw's last 51 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Kershaw's last 5 home starts vs. the Cubs.

Take the under big. 

Top Total of the Week 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Danny Salazar is much better than he has shown so far this year. Salazar goes up against a KC offense that is one of the five worst in baseball here, and I see this as a good chance for him to get back on track. 

Jason Vargas has been excellent this year. Vargas had one really bad start a couple outings ago, but overall he has been very solid. The Indians rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in almost all major statistical categories against left handed pitching. 

A key angle here is the weather as well. The wind will be blowing in from center field for this one. Progessive Field is one where the weather makes a big difference. 

Here's a great statistic to back this up. With the wind blowing in at least 6 mph (projected to be 10 mph here), and a total of at least 8, the under is 70-25 in the last 95 games played at Progressive Field. 

The under is 14-2 in Vargas' last 16 starts.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Cavs/Celtics NBA Red Hot CASH* The Cleveland Cavs head to Boston looking to closeout the Boston Celtics. The Cavs have dominated this series for the most part, but you have to respect the way Boston has fought very hard the last couple games.

Boston completely changed the way they play when Isaiah Thomas went down with an injury. The Celtics can't try to play quickly without their main offensive guy. Boston has decided to post up Al Horford a lot and try to score in the post or pass it out of the post to get open 3's. The post ups have slowed the tempo of these games down a lot. 

The average tempo in games one and two was 95 possessions per game. In games 3 and 4, the pace was 90.1 possessions per game. That kind of tempo change is drastic, and it makes a posted total of 216 awfully high.

The Cavs are capable of shooting a great percentage from the floor, but they shot nearly 60% from the floor last game and the game still went under the total. The Cavs are averaging 1.20 points per possession and the Celtics are averaging 1.12 points per possession in the last two games. Those are very high efficiency rates on offense. Those are more likely to drop than go up.

Here's a system that backs this under play:

-The spread is between home team -3.5 and +12

-The home teams win percentage is 64% or lower

-The home team in this game lost the previous game by 5 points or more

-The total is 193.5 or higher

-The percentage of bets on the under is 42% or lower

In this situation, the under is a very impressive 41-15 in the last 56 (73.2%). This game fits this situation. 

Take the under.

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jose Berrios has been one of the most highly touted pitching prospects in baseball the last few years. Berrios struggled in his first couple trips to the big leagues, but he has been great this year in a two game sample size.

Berrios had a 1.13 ERA in six starts in Triple A for the Twins this year. He has a 0.59 ERA in two starts in the big leagues so far this year. Improved control has been the biggest key for Berrios.

Chris Tillman isn't a special pitcher, but he isn't bad either. He has a home ERA of 4.01 in his career at Baltimore. The Twins are hitting only .259 off of him in his career. 

The key here is the situation. It's a get away day game with a start of 12:35 pm EST. These are the games where a key player or two usually sits out for some rest. The wind is scheduled to be blowing in from right field here as well at about 10 mph.

At Baltimore, with the wind blowing in the under has been a great play in the past. The under is 126-70 (64.2%) with the wind blowing in at Baltimore. 

Day game unders with the wind blowing in and the total of at least 8.5 are hitting 55.5% in the last 8 years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It is really rare to see a Clayton Kershaw game at Dodger Stadium with a total of 7. Kershaw and the Dodgers are big favorites once again here. The likelihood of the Dodgers batting only 8 times has to be accounted for here. Kershaw is the most dominant pitcher in the game, and the Cardinals aren't very good against lefties. St. Louis ranks 20th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties.

Lance Lynn has pitched well against the Dodgers in his career. The under is 6-1 in Lynn's last 7 starts against the Dodgers. The under is 5-1 in his six starts at Dodger Stadium.

Overall, the under is an impressive 79-58 in Kershaw's 137 home starts in his career. That's a 57.7% winning percentage. 

When was the last time a Kershaw home start had a total of 7 runs? It was September 28, 2012 against the Rockies. 

Solid value here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez here. Rodriguez was a guy who there were very high expectations for a long time ago, and he struggled a bit in his early time in the majors. He is putting it together this year. Rodriguez hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last six starts. He has a FIP of 3.20 or lower in each of those starts. He is striking out 10.23 batters per nine innings, which is easily the best of his career.

Andrew Triggs has allowed 2 runs or less in six of his eight starts this year. Triggs gets soft contact and uses a deceptive delivery to make things difficult on batters who don't see him on a regular basis.

Yonder Alonso is doubtful for this game for the A's, and he's been the best hitter on the team. The A's offense is 23rd in weighted on base average against lefties in the majors. 

Mike Muchlinski is the umpire here, and that is definitely good for the under. He's a solid under umpire overall. The under is 21-7 in his last 28 Sunday games behind the dish.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Matt Cain and Adam Wainwright are following similar paths in their careers. Both were excellent pitchers a few years ago, but things have changed in a big way. Interestingly, these both were guys who had great control a few years ago. Now, both of them have doubled their walk rate from about 5 years ago. They are getting less strikeouts and a lot more hard contact.

The Giants offense has been much better on the road than at home. The Giants are 14-7-2 to the over in their road games this year.

The Cardinals are excellent against right handed pitching, and they have a terrible defense that costs them a run or two a game many times. The over is 24-14 for the Cardinals this year. This is an offense that has finally gotten healthy and they should put up a lot of runs this year.

Tom Hallion is the umpire here and he ranks among the bottom 15 in the majors in the past five years in strikes called.

The over is 4-0 in Cain's last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the Cards last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0 in Wainwright's last 6 starts after the Cardinals score 2 runs or less. The over is 3-0 in Cain's last 4 starts vs. the Cardinals. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays meet on Saturday afternoon in Tampa Bay.

Masahiro Tanaka has allowed 16 runs in his last three outings. Tanaka has allowed 7 home runs in that three game span. He has an ERA more than half a run higher in his career in day games, and this is a day game. 

Matt Andriese is a serviceable pitcher, but he is up against an excellent Yankees lineup. The Yankees are hitting 2.78 and averaging 5.91 runs per game against right handed pitching.

The Rays are quietly hitting the cover off the ball lately. Tampa Bay ranks in the top five in the majors in homers. The Rays are averaging 5.01 runs per game off right handed pitching.

The Rays bullpen is one of the five worst in the majors. The Yankees bullpen isn't nearly as good without a healthy Aroldis Chapman.

The over is 7-0 in the Yankees last 7 vs. the AL East. The over is 6-0 in Tanaka's last 6 following a team loss in their last game. The over is 8-0 in the Rays last 8 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.35 or higher. A 35-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Playoff 100% System SMASHER* The Boston Celtics were trampled over in game one of this series. Boston has a great coach in Brad Stevens, and I think he'll make some key adjustments in game two to make them more competitive. Since Cleveland is a much more talented team than Boston, the Celtics are best served to slow the pace of the game. They did in game one. They just need to play a lot better defense than they did in game one. Look for more doubling of LeBron and better switching from the Celtics in this one.

The first game played to a pace of 94 possessions. That was the slowest paced game between these two teams all season. It got to 221 points (one point over this total) because the Cavs scored 1.27 points per possession. The Celtics scored a decent 1.073 points per possession as well.

It's hard not to like the under when teams are playing that slowly and need to shoot such a high percentage. The Cavs are very capable of torching the nets, but at this number I have to take the under. 

There's a specific system that backs. Here's the playoff system:

-The home team lost the previous game by more than 6 points. 

-The spread is anywhere from home team -3.5 to home team +6.5. 

-The total is 195.5 or higher

-The road team allows 44% shooting or higher

-The home team allows 45% shooting or higher

The under is a perfect 13-0 in this system. Why? My theory here is the home team shows pride after being beaten at home last game, and they play better defense as the oddsmakers adjust the total upward. The under then gets more value. The mediocre defensive numbers make sense because we know that in the long run mediocre or poor defenses get much better in the playoffs because there is a lot more effort exerted on that end of the floor.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Monday Game 7 Red HOT CASH* The Washington Wizards and Boston Celtics meet in a crucial Game 7 matchup on Monday night in Boston. The winner moves on to meet the Cavs. The loser goes home for the year. 

The later you get in a playoff series in the NBA, the slower the tempo generally is. When a team is on the brink of elimination, they typically slow the game down and play much better defense. 

I had the under in game six, which cashed in easily. I don't expect the shooting numbers to be as bad in game 7, and the number has been adjusted lower. Still, I see value on the under. Why? Look at the pace at which last game was played. The average pace in this series has been almost 99 possessions. Last game, the game was played to a tempo of just 93.58 possessions. That's a dramatic difference and at that kind of pace it takes some very good shooting or a bunch of free throws to get past 210 points. 

A couple angles of note-

1. In Game 6 and Game 7 of the NBA playoffs- when the spread is 7 points or less and the under is getting 51% or less of the overall bets, the under is a whopping 73-37 in the last 110. That's 66.4%. 

2. In that same scenario from above- when the Boston Celtics are involved in the game- the under has cashed 13 straight times.

The Celtics have been elimination game under machines. Because the number has been dropped by a lot I won't make it a big play this time, but I will once again take the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The under is a whopping 63-30-7 in the Rangers last 100 Sunday games. I hate putting too much stock in day of the week trends, but Sunday is consistently the best "under" day in the majors overall, so it is something to note. 

Both of these pitchers have excellent track records against their opponent on Sunday. Kendall Graveman has held Texas to a .210 average and .264 OBP in his career. A.J. Griffin has held Oakland to a .163 average and a .234 OBP in his career.

Jim Reynolds is behind the plate and he has changed his stripes a good deal in the past couple years. He was a big over umpire in the past, but he now ranks in the top 20% of umpires in most pitches called a strike. He shouldn't hurt the bet.

It's hot in Texas now, and the wind will be blowing in at about 10 mph. I ran a query on this situation and found that the under is 59-38 in Texas' last 97 home games with a temperature of 86 degrees or warmer and the wind blowing in. 

The under is 10-2 in the Rangers last 12 games after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies start Tyler Anderson here. Anderson was off to a slow start to the season, but I think his long term numbers at Coors Field suggest he is a pretty solid pitcher. He'll be up against a Dodgers lineup that is really bad against left handed pitching. The Dodgers offense is a little bit banged up right now and Adrian Gonzalez is a key part of their lineup missing. 

Alex Wood is throwing the ball better than he has at any point during his career. Wood has a great 2.73 ERA and an even more impressive 1.91 FIP on the season. His strikeouts per nine innings are above 11, and his swinging strike rate is the highest it has been at any point in his career. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. Miller has made me more money than any other umpire in the majors when it comes to betting on unders. He loves to ring people up, and his strikes called percentage is second of all the umpires in the past five years. 

With a high total and Miller behind the dish, I see this as a good value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Celtics/Wizards 100% System Play* The Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards square off in Washington DC on Friday night. The Wizards took care of business in the first two games at home in this series, and they'll have to do that again here if they are going to keep their season going.

Throughout this series so far, both offenses have been extremely efficient. The tempo has averaged 99 possessions. The Celtics are averaging 1.13 points per possession. The Wizards are averaging 1.10 points per possession. Both of these are well above even their regular season averages. Generally, in the playoffs the offensive efficiency numbers go down.

I think this is an opportunity to get good value on the under. The later in the series we get, the slower the tempo generally becomes. The importance of the games mean better defense is played as well.

A couple great systems here. First, in a game 6 or 7 of the playoffs, when the spread is no more than 6.5 points and at least 50% of the overall bets are on the over, the under is a whopping 72-37 (66.1%). That alone is a tremendous angle.

Let's make it even better. In the Celtics last 12 games that fit this system, all 12 of them have stayed under the total. This is a perfect 12-0 under system on Celtics elimination games staying under the total.

This number is inflated by a few points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Marlins have allowed 6 runs or more in 6 of their last 8 games. The Marlins pitching staff has really fallen apart of late, and the bullpen is taxed right now. 

Jose Urena gets the start here, and I don't think he's the answer. Urena had a 6.13 ERA last year. His ERA looks great this year, but that is thanks to stranding 94.3% of runners. He is striking out only 4.22 batters per nine innings. Urena is going to regress to the mean soon. The Braves hitters have a .500 OBP against him, though it is in only 26 plate appearances. 

Mike Foltynewicz had a 4.31 ERA last year and he has a 4.55 ERA so far this year. He puts himself into bad pitch counts far too often, and that leads to mistakes. This is a guy with potential, but so far he has struggled to realize it. The Marlins hitters combine to have a .400 on base percentage against him in 50 plate appearances.

Both bullpens are bad and these offenses are improved. The over is 25-8-2 in the last 35 meetings between these two teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open. The ball flies so well there with the heat and low humidity.

There are some great long-term numbers to prove this is a great over park with the roof open as it is scheduled to be in this one. The over is 150-99 (60.2%) in the last 249 games at Chase Field with the following conditions being met:

-A temperature of 75 degrees or warmer

-The total is 9.5 or lower

-The game is before the All Star Break (roof rarely open later in the season)

Greinke and Cole are both good pitchers, but both of these bullpens are trainwrecks. A total of only 8.5 at Chase Field with the roof open is only warranted if you have a guy like Clayton Kershaw pitching in my opinion, and he isn't pitching here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs meet in Game 6 in Houston. Kawhi Leonard is expected to play by many, but he is still listed as questionable for this one. 

The Spurs won in overtime in Game 5. That was a game that was played to by far the slowest tempo of any game in this series during regulation. The game finished at 217 points even with an overtime. 

Over the years I've found that the tempo slows down and typically the defenses get better when more is on the line. There's a bunch on the line here. Houston is looking to avoid elimination from the playoffs.

There's a strong system that backs this. In a Game 6 or Game 7 in the NBA playoffs with the following information:

-Home team shoots 45% or better from the floor

-The home team win percentage is 67.5% or lower

-The spread is no more than 7.5 points in either direction

The under is a whopping 38-13 (75%) in these situations. This game fits this situation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals collide in a get away day game in Tampa Bay here. These types of games are generally slightly lower scoring. It's the type of game where you see umpires call more strikes and hitters swing at more first pitches in hopes of keeping things moving. 

Mike Everitt is behind the plate here. On a get away day with a game start time of 5 pm eastern or earlier, the under is 40-24 in Everitt's last 64 games behind home plate. That's a nice 62.5% win percentage.

Jason Vargas and Jake Odorizzi have pitched really well this year, and they'll be facing a weak opposing offense here. Look for both guys to pitch fairly deep into the game.

The under is 12-1 in Vargas' last 13 starts. The under is 8-1 in Odorizzi's last 9 starts. The under is 4-0 in Odorizzi's last 4 following a quality start in his last game. A combined 24-2 trend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Red Sox offense underachieved for a long time this year. Now, they are on fire. It can be pretty amazing how long these kind of offensive streaks can go for good offensive teams. The Red Sox will definitely finish the year as one of the best offenses in baseball. 

Boston has scored 35 runs in their last three games! They sat out a couple key hitters last night, and I would expect a full roster of starters for this one. Chase Anderson started the year red hot, but he has been shaky in his last couple starts. Anderson is a streaky pitcher and he's been missing his spots in his last couple starts. Boston should make him pay.

Kyle Kendrick is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Kendrick is almost 33 years old, and he was never very good to start with. Kendrick had a 4.73 ERA in Triple A last year, and he had a 6.00 ERA in Triple A this year before being called up. That's not the type of guy that has much success against a good big league lineup very often. The Brewers have a lot of young talent in the order.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Francisco Liriano is a very inconsistent pitcher. Liriano is capable of completely shutting anyone down, but he's also capable of struggling badly. Liriano pitches much better at home, and he's up against a Cleveland team that has been really bad against lefties this year.

Cleveland is hitting .213 against lefties on the year, and they rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

Danny Salazar is due for some positive regression. Opponents have a ridiculously high batting average on balls in play against him of .385. That will come down over time. Salazar has excellent stuff and he's up against a Toronto offense without Donaldson and Tulowitzki.

Vic Carapazza is the home plate umpire here, and he ranks in the top ten of my best under umpires in baseball. 

The under is 6-0 in the Indians last 6 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 4-0-1 in Salazar's last 5 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Jays last 4 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 6-0 in Liriano's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. A 30-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Hector Santiago and Mike Pelfrey on the mound and the total is only 8.5? The cool temperatures in Chicago have something to do with it, but I can't pass up an over at this number with these two guys on the mound.

Santiago has a 2.78 ERA this year, but he has a 5.19 xFIP and a 4.74 SIERA. Those are sabermetric stats that show Santiago has been extremely lucky so far this year. He'll face a White Sox team that ranks in the top six in the majors against left handed pitching in almost all the major categories. 

Mike Pelfrey had 7.50 ERA in two starts in Triple A this year, and he has a 5.02 ERA in the big leagues thus far. This is a guy who is averaging a pathetic 2.51 strikeouts per nine innings this year. He isn't missing bats, and I don't expect Pelfrey to fool many Twins in this game. The Twins hitters have a lifetime batting average of .367 against him.

The over is 8-1 in the Twins last 9 games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals offense is way better than they showed early in the season. The Cardinals have broken out offensively in their last few games. St. Louis has now scored 30 runs in their last four games. I look for this to be one of the best offenses in the National League this year.

Adam Wainwright isn't the pitcher he used to be. Wainwright has an ERA over 6 this year. He isn't as bad as that number would suggest, but his road ERA in the last two years is well over 5. The Marlins offense is good enough with Yelich, Stanton, and Ozuna in the middle of the order to do some damage.

Both bullpens have been bad this year and that means scoring chances late in the game. 

Andy Fletcher is behind the plate here, and he ranks in the bottom ten umps in the majors in strikes called in the past five years.

The over is 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Miami between these teams. A 15-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Coors Field is obviously the best hitters park in the majors. The weather conditions matter a lot at Coors though, and the weather conditions on Sunday are absolutely perfect for the over.

A warm temperature has meant higher scoring at Coors Field. Wind blowing out is obviously helpful as well, and that's what we'll have here. The average temperature during this game is expected to be 78 degrees. The wind will be blowing out at 10-15 mph.

In the past 75 day games at Coors Field with a temperature of 75 degrees or warmer and wind blowing out at 10 mph or more, the over is 50-25.

Tyler Chatwood has been terrible at home. He has a career 5.04 ERA at Coors Field. The Diamondbacks bullpen isn't any good, so even if Taijuan Walker slows down the Rockies lineup, Colorado should get plenty of scoring chances late.

Take the over.

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners offense has been much better of late. They were quieted by Yu Darvish last night, but lots of teams will be quieted by Darvish and his elite stuff. Seattle has a lineup full of guys who can hit lefties.

Martin Perez is a below average lefty. Seattle's lineup has a combined .425 on base percentage against Perez, so there are a bunch of guys who really hit him well. Nelson Cruz has 3 homers in 12 at bats against Perez. Kyle Seager has 4 homers in 32 at bats against Perez. 

Chase De Jong doesn't appear to be ready for the big leagues yet. De Jong has had serious control problems all through his minor league career, and he can't locate the zone at all in the bigs. His stuff isn't overpowering enough to overcome that.

The bullpens were both used up in a big way last night. The two starters have to go deeper here, and neither starter is good.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds offense has been much better than expected this year. Eugenio Suarez's red hot start has been a big catalyst. Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler have been very good as well. Everyone expects Joey Votto to be great, and he has been as per the norm. 

The under is 11-3 in the San Francisco Giants 14 home games this year. The over is 11-5 in their last 16 road games. The Giants and Reds have played a bunch of high scoring games against each other in the last few years. The over is 20-8-2 in the last 30 meetings. The over is 6-1-2 in the last 9 meetings between them in Cincinnati.

Ty Blach is a pitch to contact guy. He's averaging less than 4 strikeouts per nine innings. That's extremely low. Amir Garrett was awesome in his first few games but the advanced metrics suggest he has been fortunate overall and I suspect he'll have plenty of growing pains.

Both teams have been better against lefties than righties on the year. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Thursday Early Bird Special* Bill Miller is one of the best under umpires in baseball. No other umpire has made me as much money in the past few years as Miller. The under has value to start with Miller behind the plate. In fact, the under is 219-173 in his games behind the plate (56% under wins). 

The wind here is a major factor as well. The wind is expecting to be blowing in from left center field at 15-20 mph throughout the game with gusts to 25 mph. With a temperature only in the low to mid 60's, the ball won't be carrying well on Thursday afternoon in Kansas City.

The Royals are dead last in weighted on base average in the majors against left handed pitching. The White Sox are dead last in the same category against right handed pitching. Holland is a mediocre lefty, but that should be enough to slow the Royals. Ian Kennedy has been good for the Royals, and his swinging strikes rate and overall strikeout rate has me relatively high on him right now.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Royals last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Royals last 5 vs. a left handed starter. The under is 6-0 in the Royals last 6 games overall vs. a team with a winning record. A 17-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners start Hisashi Iwakuma here. Iwakuma's numbers on the year don't look all that bad, but a closer look at him and I think he is in some real trouble going forward.

Iwakuma has a 4.15 ERA, but his FIP is 6.58 on the season. Iwakuma is striking out only 4.15 batters per nine innings. He struck out 7.70 per nine innings two years ago. Iwakuma is allowing more hard contact than he has at any other time in his career. His velocity is down drastically this year, and it suggests either simple aging (he is 36) or an injury of some kind. 

Ricky Nolasco starts for the Angels. Nolasco has a 4.13 ERA but a FIP of 5.26, so he has gotten lucky as well. Nolasco isn't a terrible pitcher, but he isn't good either.

Adrian Johnson is behind home plate and he's a very good over umpire. The over is hitting at a 57% clip in his last 5 years of games behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Nationals are absolutely crushing left handed pitching so far this year. Washington has an amazing .439 OBP against lefties this year. That's obviously not going to continue, but the Nationals are going to be one of the top three or four in the majors against lefties.

Arizona ranked as the best team in the majors against lefties according to weighted on base average last year. The Diamondbacks are 11th so far this year. Expect them to be very good in that category again this year.

Robbie Ray is a pretty good starter, but walks are a major problem. Ray is walking 5.04 batters per nine innings. That's bad news when Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire. He is arguably the best over umpire in the business and he won't give Ray any breaks here.

Gio Gonzalez is due for some major regression. Gonzalez has a 1.62 ERA and a 3.69 FIP and a 4.17 FIP. That suggests he has gotten very fortunate so far this year. He started really fast last year before pitching some subpar baseball the rest of the way.

The over is 7-0-1 in the Nats last 8 games. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 vs. the NL West. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games. A 16-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION* Two of the top defensive minded teams in the NHL clash in Game 3 and this is an under play.

These two goalies are extremely dominant and are going to give their
top games here with a lot on the line.

Henrik Lundqvist and Craig Anderson have stepped up time and time
again this season for their teams and expect them to do that just
here.

This is going to fall in the hands of the Senators and them slowing
the tempo down. They will look to really play control and possession,
not allowing the Rangers to get out and attack.

A few trends to keep in mind for this game. Under is 17-6-7 in Rangers last 30
Conference Semifinals games. Under is 19-5-2 in the last 26 meetings
in New York. Under is 32-10-9 in the last 51 meetings.

This is a nice spot to expect a very low scoring game. Trends wise,
this is an under move and given the situation, this is going to be a
slower paced game. Both goalies are far better than they showed last game.

Take the under.

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles are both better on offense than they have shown in the early going this year. Both of these teams have a large amount of proven hitters who are underachieving thus far, and those guys should start producing sooner rather than later. 

Rick Porcello isn't nearly as good as you would think based on the fact that he won the AL Cy Young award last year. Porcello is a pitch to contact guy who has only been mediocre in his career against Baltimore. The Orioles have a .323 OBP against him.

Dylan Bundy has been good this year, but I still don't trust his consistency, especially away from home. Bundy has a career 2.67 ERA at home and a 4.53 ERA on the road. 

The Orioles bullpen is good, but it takes a big hit without Britton. The Red Sox bullpen is only average. 

This one is priced too low. 

Take the over.