*4 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns have picked up their pace. In their last couple games they have been playing about two seconds per play faster than they did earlier in the season. Texas ranks 12th in the nation in yards per play on the season. Thompson has done a good job at quarterback. Bijan Robinson is the star of the team, and he has been doing some major damage. 

Baylor's Gerry Bohanon has been tremendous at quarterback for the Bears. The Bears offensive line also ranks in the top 5 in the nation at PFF in both pass blocking and run blocking grade. Baylor's offense ranks 3rd in the nation in yards per play. 

Texas' defense ranks 109th in YPP allowed. Baylor ranks 35th in the nation in yards per play. Both teams have given up a lot of big plays this year. Baylor has already allowed 32 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. Texas has already allowed 38 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. These offenses should be able to bust big plays here.

Baylor's contests against West Virginia and BYU topped this total. Oklahoma State slowed down both of these offenses, but that is the best defense in the Big 12 and neither of these defenses are on that level.

I made this total several points higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have become a tremendous under team. Illinois is coming off a 9 OT game that finished 20-18. Illinois has played 5 straight games that have finished with 38 points or less. Joseph has been tremendous at safety for Illinois this year, he's rated as the single best safety in the country by PFF so far this year. The Illinois offense is running the football early and often. Look for them to play it very safe here as Peters is back under center and he isn't completely healthy. 

Rutgers is coming off a game where they put up only 7 points against a bad Northwestern defense. The Scarlet Knights are 119th in the nation in yards per play. Illinois is 118th in the nation in yards per play. Both of these teams aren't explosive at all on offense. This projects as a grind it out type game where both teams struggle to get big chunk plays. Rutgers has just 7 plays of 30 yards or more all year.

Look for field goals instead of touchdowns and a lot of punting the football in this Big Ten battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a very high total, but it is very high for a good reason. Portland is easily playing at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA. Damian Lillard has shot the ball terribly so far this season. How bad? Lillard is shooting 8% from 3 point range. He is shooting just 36% overall. The Blazers have still had 2 of their 3 games go over this posted total. 

Memphis has played 3 games and their lowest scoring game finished at 234 points. The other two were 239 and 253 points. The Grizzlies have a great offense and arguably their best defender, Dillon Brooks, is out with an injury. 

The Blazers are coming off a very low scoring output on a terrible shooting night. The Clippers are far better defensively than the Grizzlies though. Betting the over in the next game after a team has gone way under has been a profitable strategy in the NBA as well.

The pace will be there. I think more shots will fall as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* What do the Seattle Seahawks want to do a lot more of now that Russell Wilson is out? They want to run the football and be far more conservative. That isn't likely to work well against the #1 rushing defense in the NFL. The Saints are giving up just 3.35 ypc on the season thus far. 

New Orleans ranks as the slowest paced team in the NFL. They clearly don't trust Jameis Winston and they are running on 57% of their offensive plays so far this year. The Saints are just 25th in the NFL in yards per play. 

Rain and wind is in the forecast for this one. Winds of 15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph should change the game and help the defense even more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather doesn't often play a major role in games played in Santa Clara, but it looks like it will play a very big role on Sunday night. Historic rains are headed for California and the west coast in general in the next few days. Forecasts currently call for 3-4 inches of rain on Sunday alone in the Santa Clara area. What about the wind? Sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 25-30 mph are in the forecast.

The Colts rank 26th in the NFL in tempo. The 49ers rank 22nd in the NFL in tempo. With these conditions we should see a lot of running plays and that means a moving clock far more often than in a normal NFL game. 

The under has been very good at Santa Clara in the past because of the thick grass. This surface could be a real mess in this kind of rainstorm.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots and New York Jets met earlier this season. The Patriots won that game 25-6. The two teams averaged just 4.9 and 4.6 yards per play in that contest. 

New England and New York both play at a tempo slower than the NFL average. Both teams struggle badly to get big plays. New England has only 1 play of 40 yards or more all season. The Jets have only 18 plays of 20 yards or more (27th best in the NFL). Both teams have struggled badly in the red zone on offense as well. 

The Jets defense is above average against the run. The Patriots prefer to run the football when they can. The Patriots offense is very vanilla with Mac Jones at quarterback. 

The Jets offense has no running game. The Jets shockingly have zero rushing plays of 20 yards or more all year. They are one of only two teams in the NFL to have 0 rushing plays of 20 yards or more.

It looks like there be some wind in this game- nothing extreme but enough to possibly make both offenses a bit more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers and Utah Utes meet in Corvallis on Saturday night. The weather here calls for quite a bit of rain during the day and again later at night in Corvallis. There should be some showers and a bit of a breeze during this game.

Oregon State prefers to run the football. The Beavers have a pretty good game manager in Chance Nolan at QB, but the Beavers are all about the run. In fact, in Pac 12 play 71% of their plays have been runs. Utah's defense ranks 1st in Pac 12 play at stopping the run. 

Utah and Oregon State both rank in the top 25 in the country in terms of not giving up big plays. That's important especially when the weather could play a factor in the game and the total isn't all that low. 

Utah's Cam Rising has improved the Utes offense, but Utah has been getting off to slow starts each week. Corvallis is no easy place to play and the Utes are in a bit of a tough spot here. 

Oregon State ranks 100th out of 130 teams in terms of pace of play. Utah has played quite a bit slower in their last couple games as well. The tempo here shouldn't be very fast.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys are unbeaten, but they are a flawed team. The Cowboys offense isn't good at all. Spencer Sanders is a poor passer. Sanders ranks 83rd at PFF in quarterback grade this year. He isn't connecting on any deep plays this year in the passing game. The Oklahoma State offense will have to be able to run here. Can they? Iowa State is 7th in the nation in yards per carry allowed this season. The Cyclones should make it hard on the Cowboys to get going here.

Iowa State prefers to play at a slow pace. The Cyclones rank 110th in the nation out of 130 teams in terms of tempo. Iowa State's running game hasn't been as good as expected this year. Oklahoma State has what I believe is the best defense in the Big 12 (2nd is probably Iowa State). The Cowboys are tremendous against the run. Oklahoma State should slow down Breece Hall here. 

Iowa State is favored here and if they are playing from the lead that likely would lead to more conservative play and a slow tempo.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers are coming off a 24-7 win at Iowa. Purdue has made a habit out of having very low scoring games this year. In fact their last four games have finished with a total of: 40 points, 22 points, 33 points, and 31 points. 

Wisconsin has already played three games this year that finished with a total of 34 points or less. The Badgers defense is elite. They rank 1st in the nation in success rate allowed. They are 3rd in the nation in yards per play allowed on defense. The Badgers have given up some points in games where their defense was excellent (Notre Dame for example) because of turnovers and special teams touchdowns. The Boilermakers aren't going to be able to run the ball. Purdue is averaging 2.75 ypc on the year. Wisconsin has good corners and I expect Jim Leonard to have a good plan for defending David Bell.

The Purdue defense is underrated. They rank 7th in the nation in success rate allowed. Wisconsin's offense isn't good at all. Graham Mertz has been bad, and the running game isn't up to par either. The Badgers are 101st in the nation in yards per play on offense. 

Look for a hard fought battle here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes struggled offensively in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but that was largely because they faced great defenses. Kent State had to go up against Texas A&M and Iowa and even a pretty good Maryland defense. Kent State is now in the MAC where their uptempo offense should be able to pile up points against most of the defenses.

Kent State has scored 27, 48, and 31 points in their last three games. The only defense that ranks slightly worse than Ohio that Kent State has played so far this year (of FBS opponents) is Buffalo. That is the game Kent scored 48 points.

Ohio has a good running attack. They really aren't good at anything else. Ohio ran for nearly 400 yards on Akron. They ran for 271 yards against Buffalo last week. Kent State has an awful run defense. They are allowing 5.42 yards per carry. The Bobcats should get a big day from their running backs and quarterback Armani Rogers on the ground here. 

Kent State plays at an ultra fast tempo. The Golden Flashes rank 2nd in the country in tempo. They have played much faster in MAC action than in non-conference action. They are averaging less than 19 seconds between plays. 

When these two teams last met in 2019 the final was 45-38. Expect another high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox start Nate Eovaldi here. While he has been a good pitcher for Boston, I'm not confident Eovaldi will be good in this game. Eovaldi threw 24 pitches in relief in game four and is off his normal schedule. Also, the Houston Astros lineup has torched Eovaldi in his career. This Astros lineup has a tremendous .389 weighted on base average against Eovaldi in 104 at bats.

Luis Garcia was hit hard earlier in this series by the Red Sox. The Boston offense has been absolutely on fire in the postseason. This team is hitting for power in a way that almost no team before them has in the postseason. 

Alan Porter is a hitter-friendly umpire and he'll be behind the plate here. These are arguably the two best offenses in baseball. Every game in this series has reached at least 9 runs. I think this one will as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Arizona Cardinals and the Cleveland Browns meet in Cleveland on Sunday. These two teams are 7th and 14th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The offenses are solid, but they don't play fast. It might surprise you to know that Arizona ranks 24th in overall tempo this year. Cleveland ranks an even slower 29th.

Cleveland is coming off a high scoring game and that is part of the reason the total is so high here. This game appears to setup differently though.

The weather for this game looks highly suspect. Right now, there are winds of 20-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the forecast. We saw last year what the extreme wind from the lake in Cleveland can do to make a game much lower scoring. 

Even without extreme weather I think this projects as a game where both teams can limit the big plays from the other side. The weather is a great bonus though. 

Look for a hard fought game with more running of the football than a normal NFL game, which will keep the clock moving.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Football team has allowed 30 points or more to every team they have played this year. Now, they host the Kansas City Chiefs who have arguably the best offense in football. It isn't going to go well for the Washington defense in this game either.

Buffalo put up 43 points on this Washington defense. Kansas City is 2-3 and they should be upset after their home loss to the Bills on Sunday night. I'll be very surprised if Mahomes and company aren't on point offensively against this terrible Washington secondary.

Speaking of bad defenses, the Kansas City Chiefs rank last in the NFL in yards per play allowed, and it isn't even close.

Washington is a middle of the road offense, but I think Taylor Heinicke and company can have a good game here against the very weak Chiefs defense. Washington has averaged 26.75 points per game in their last four games. They should put up a good number here again.

Two terrible secondaries and the quarterbacks should take advantage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals is one of the most improved defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati has drafted some very solid linebackers the last couple seasons and it is starting to pay off. The Bengals are also much stronger on the defensive line now. It helps that the Bengals defense has stayed much healthier so far this season too.

The Detroit Lions wide receivers are the worst in the NFL. They are now without their top two wideouts for this game due to injury also. Their star center Ragnow is also out with an injury. Jared Goff is pretty good as a game manager, but he isn't surrounded by much talent here now, and the Bengals defensive front should be in the backfield a lot here. 

Joe Mixon is still banged up for the Bengals. He'll likely play, but he isn't 100 percent healthy. Joe Burrow is a very good quarterback, but the offensive line in front of him is very weak. Burrow was knocked around last week again and I think the play calling here could be pretty conservative from the Bengals. 

The Lions defense isn't supremely talented by any means, but they have been playing really hard for Dan Campbell. This Lions defense has looked much better in recent weeks. They have allowed just 19, 24, and 19 points against the Ravens, Bears, and Vikings in their last three games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons defense is improved this year, but I don't think it is as good as it looks on paper. Air Force has played a schedule of very weak offenses, especially in the passing game. Air Force has gone against Lafayette (FCS), Navy, Utah State, Florida Atlantic, New Mexico, and Wyoming. Only one of those teams has an above average passing attack (Utah State). Utah State won at Air Force 49-45.

Boise State doesn't play at the extremely fast pace that Utah State does, but they are 37th out of 130 in pace of play, so the Broncos do play pretty fast. Boise State is much better in the passing game than the running game. Boise State is 39th in the country in passing play success rate. 

In the last 4 meetings between these two teams Boise State has scored 44. 48, 30, and 49 points by themselves. I don't think they'll put up a huge number here, but I do think they can move the ball through the air and score here.

On the other side, Air Force is excellent in the running game. They are averaging 5.13 yards per carry on the season. Boise State is just 91st in the country in yards per carry allowed (4.43). So far this year, Boise State has allowed only 10 touchdowns on 23 trips into the red zone. That will regress to the mean. Boise State's defense can't keep bending without breaking all the time. Air Force has been very efficient in the red zone thanks to their triple option attack.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks play at a very slow pace. South Carolina ranks 109th in pace of play. The Gamecocks are a run first team as well. They have run the ball on more than 55% of their offensive plays this season. 

Vanderbilt is a weak team overall. The Commodores are even worse offensively than on defense. Vanderbilt ranks 127th in success rate on offense. They usually rely on the pass, but South Carolina's strongest unit is their secondary. It would be a surprise to see Vanderbilt have much success at all on offense in this game.

South Carolina is likely to be happy to salt the game away by running the football and using up a lot of clock. 

There is a bit of wind and a slight chance of showers here that would just be a bonus as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes defense ranks second best in the country in nearly every major category. Only the Georgia Bulldogs defense has been better. Iowa has only allowed 4.02 yards per play on the year despite playing a top 10 strength of schedule so far. The Hawkeyes have been stingy against the run all year and Purdue is averaging 1.92 yards per carry in the Big Ten so far this year. Purdue has to do it through the air and this Hawkeyes defense is elite. I don't think Purdue will get many scoring chances.

Iowa's offense hasn't been very good this year. Spencer Petras is inconsistent and the Hawkeyes have relied on short fields for many of their scores. Iowa ranks 121st in yards per play in the country. Purdue ranks 3rd in the nation in defensive success rate. This Boilermakers defense has been very good so far this season.

The weather at kickoff time here will be windy with gusts of 20 mph. The winds will slow down through the game, but it should make it harder for the passing games to work.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls host the Ohio Bobcats in a MAC contest on Saturday afternoon. 

The weather forecast for Saturday afternoon in Buffalo is for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 35 mph. There are showers expected during this game, especially early in the game. That kind of weather really can change the game. Windy unders have been very good long term especially when there is precipitation involved as well.

Both of these teams like to run the football a lot, and in these conditions I would expect the defenses to try to load up the box to stop the run. Neither offense gets big plays all that often, so even if they move the ball down the field it should take quite a bit of time. 

If the two offenses are as one dimensional as I expect with the conditions like this, it makes the under a much more attractive wager.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dodgers and Giants square off on Thursday night in Game 5. The winner moves on and the loser goes home. The stakes couldn't be higher. 

All hands will be on deck for this game. There is no holding back your top pitchers. This is a must win in every way. 

Julio Urias starts for the Dodgers and Logan Webb starts for the Giants. Urias has a 2.61 career ERA against the Giants. His ERA is 2.92 at San Francisco. The Dodgers do have good depth pitching wise and they shouldn't be afraid to use that if Urias struggles. Webb has held the current Dodgers lineup to a very low .208 average and a .266 OBP in his career. He pitched brilliantly against them earlier in this series.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this game. There isn't a better under umpire in baseball than Eddings. He has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire in the last five years. The pitchers should get the benefit of the doubt from him here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Giants rank 8th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The offensive line has been far better than expected. Daniel Jones has played pretty well this year as well. Evan Engram and Kyle Rudolph are great in the passing game in the middle of the field and Dallas is weak when it comes to defending tight ends in the passing game.

The Giants are scoring a touchdown on only 33.33% of their trips into the red zone so far this year. That should positively regress over time, and that would mean the Giants could start piling up the points.

Dallas has an elite offense. They might be the second best offense in the NFL (Chiefs 1st) right now. Dallas is so well balanced and Dak Prescott is a great fit in this offense. Dallas is averaging 31.5 points per game, and they have played some very good defenses this year. This is the worst ranked defense they have faced yet. The Cowboys should light up the scoreboard here. 

Dallas has shown they will let the opposition score a lot when the Cowboys are playing from the lead. On a fast track here I like the chances of a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers expect to start Trey Lance in this one and George Kittle is expected to be out of the lineup. That's clearly a negative for the over, but that is more than accounted for in this number. 

San Francisco was pretty good offensively last week. They averaged 6.3 yards per play against Seattle, but had some big mistakes that cost them.

Arizona is an offensive machine right now. Kyler Murray is playing as well as anyone. The Cardinals have so many weapons all over the field and Murray is great at getting everyone involved. 

San Francisco has home run ability in the run game, and Arizona ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Trey Lance will help the run game and I think that could be tough to stop for Arizona throughout this one.

The 49ers secondary gives up too many big plays, and Arizona has been piling up the big plays this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears offense looked quite a bit better last weekend despite playing in less than ideal weather conditions. Justin Fields clearly is the quarterback you want starting if you want potential for points. He has bigger downfield passing potential, but he also can make some mistakes that give the other team a short field sometimes. 

The Las Vegas Raiders offense has been very good this year. Derek Carr has big playmakers in the passing game. The Bears defense is an average or slightly below average unit now. Akiem Hicks is out for this one and Khalil Mack is questionable. Those are key injuries. Las Vegas should have chances to put together some great drives.

Early season games in domes have been good over bets in the NFL especially at low totals. This one fits the bill.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* There will be a bunch of running the football in this game. Nebraska is running the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year. Michigan is running the ball on 71% of their plays this year. A moving clock is certainly a good thing for the under.

Michigan's running attack has been good, but they haven't played many good run defenses. I think Nebraska is underrated in the front seven on defense. The Cornhuskers have been much better than expected this year on defense. Michigan scored just 20 points against Rutgers and they averaged less than 3 yards per carry against Wisconsin a week ago. 

Nebraska's running attack has been good as well, but Michigan is likely to be in the backfield a lot here. The Cornhuskers offensive line has been overwhelmed by the best defensive lines they have faced this season. Nebraska consistently struggles in the red zone because of questionable play calling and poor decisions from Adrian Martinez.

Both teams are good teams, and I expect a hard fought contest here. Look for plenty of field goals instead of touchdowns to help as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The final score when these two played last year was Buffalo 70 and Kent State 41. Do I expect something like that again? No. I do think this one has a good chance to go over the total though.

Kent State's offensive numbers are skewed down because of the defenses they have played. None of their FBS opponents this year rank lower than 42nd in the country in yards per play allowed. Buffalo ranks 87th so this is a big step down in class. Dustin Crum and the Kent State offense should get going here. Kent State ranks 9th in the country in tempo, and they will playing uptempo the whole way here.

Buffalo's pace of play this year has really surprised me. They rank a very fast 23rd in the nation in tempo. The Bulls have been more aggressive with their play calling of late. Kent State's defense is allowing nearly 5 yards per carry, and the Golden Flashes rank 130th out of 130 teams in the country in opponent passing play success rate. This Kent State defense is terrible.

This number is lower than it should be because of the opponents this offenses have played. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars offense isn't working well. Jayden De Laura looks like he has regressed and the team around him hasn't helped. The offensive line is a problem and the play calling has been questionable. Washington State ranks 104th in offensive explosiveness on the season thus far.

Oregon State's offense is good, but they move the ball slowly up the field. Nolan has been great as a game manager for the Beavers. This offensive scheme is very good, but they move slowly and don't try for big plays often. Oregon State ranks 99th in offensive explosiveness. The Washington State defense is coming off back to back strong showings in the last two weeks.

Washington State ranks 90th out of 130 in the country in pace of play. Oregon State ranks 104th in pace of play. 

The weather here looks a bit shaky as well. The wind is forecast to be sustained at about 13 mph with gusts to 20 mph during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers don't know who will start at quarterback this week. Whether it is Graham Mertz or Chase Wolf though, the passing game is terrible. Wisconsin is completely reliant on the run. Strangely, this Wisconsin offensive line hasn't been good this year. The Badgers are averaging just 3.77 yards per carry which is 88th best in the country. Wisconsin always plays slowly and they are doing that again this year. 

It would be easy to think Wisconsin's defense isn't very good when you see the scores they allowed they last two weeks. That isn't true at all. The Badgers rank 1st in the country in yards per carry allowed. Overall, Wisconsin ranks 3rd in success rate allowed. This is an excellent defense. 

Illinois is reliant on running the football too. They don't have enough playmakers to throw it around and their offense is all about the run with Bielema as their coach. Illinois ranks 109th in the nation in yards per play. The Fighting Illini offense is a clear weakness. 

Illinois has 20-17, 13-9, and 24-14 games in their last three contests. The Charlotte game (24-14) says a lot since Charlotte is a very weak defense. 

I don't think either of these two will push the pace, and I expect a lot of running and solid defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Georgia has allowed one offensive touchdown in five games. That is just insane. This Georgia defense is so much better than any other defense in the country right now it is just crazy. They rank 1st in yards per play allowed. They rank 1st in success rate on defense. They rank first at preventing explosive plays. 

Auburn had a nice win at LSU last week, but LSU's defense is a weakness. Bo Nix and his magic he pulled off in Baton Rouge isn't likely to work against this staunch Georgia defense. 

The Georgia offense still has some question marks. Both quarterbacks are banged up. Bennett is likely to be the starter here, and the game plan is generally more conservative with him under center. Georgia ranks only 112th in offensive explosiveness. They also rank 117th out of 130 in pace of play.

Auburn is allowing just 2.56 yards per carry on the year, and Georgia runs the ball on 62% of their offensive plays.

This one should be a hard fought contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Braves and Brewers start what should be an exciting series with this contest on Friday. 

Charlie Morton starts for the Braves in this one. Morton had a 3.34 ERA and a 3.17 FIP this season. Morton is one of those rare pitchers who has gotten better even as he gets into his late 30's. Morton  had a FIP of 1.17 or lower in his last 3 outings during the regular season. Morton's consistency has been impressive. He's allowed 3 runs or less in every outing since July 9 (the other he allowed 4 runs). 

Corbin Burnes has been extremely dominant all season. Burnes has a 2.43 ERA and a stunning 1.63 FIP this year. He had just 1.83 walks per nine innings and a whopping 12.61 strikeouts per nine innings. He has excellent stuff and can get a lot of swings and misses from every pitch.

The home plate umpire here is Mike Estabrook. He is a clear under umpire. In my umpire database, he has consistently been one of the best strike callers and he ranks high on the charts again this year. Both pitchers should get some extra strikes off the edges in this one.

The two lineups aren't elite by any means in their current state. Both of these teams have rested strong bullpens as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos both have a lot of key injuries. Glasnow is out on the offensive line for the Broncos. Risner is questionable as well and the Ravens certainly like to bring a lot of pressure.

Lamar Jackson is questionable but is expected to play for the Ravens. Baltimore star lineman Ronnie Staley is out here and this Broncos pass rush should be able to get to Jackson here. Villaneuva is also banged up on the offensive line. 

Marlon Humphrey is likely to play here and he is one of the most talented corners in the game. 

The Denver defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Broncos have certainly played a fairly easy schedule of offenses so far, but this is definitely a good defense. 

Denver's offense ranks 32nd in the NFL in pace of play. The Broncos are running the ball 4th most of any team in the NFL.

Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in pace of play. They are running the ball third most of any team in the NFL.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indianapolis Colts were thought to have an average or slightly above average defense before the season. They rank 27th in yards per play allowed so far this year. Take a look at the 3 offenses they have faced this year though: Seattle, LA Rams, and Tennessee Titans. Those are three excellent offenses who will put up big numbers on a lot of teams. Miami is without Tua here and this is a huge step down in class for the Colts defense.

Miami put up 3.1 ypp against the Bills two games ago. They put up only 4.2 ypp against a subpar Raiders defense last week. The Dolphins don't have an explosive offense in their current state.

The Dolphins do have a very good defense though. They will be up against a badly banged up Carson Wentz and a Colts offense that lacks top end skill position talent. Miami's secondary is one of the best in the NFL.

Look for a sloppy game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons offense has looked terrible this year. Matt Ryan appears to be falling off quickly at quarterback. It obviously hurts that Julio Jones is no longer here, but Ryan's arm strength isn't even close to what it was a few years ago. 

Atlanta is 29th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. They rank 32nd in DVOA so far this season on offense. Atlanta is a mess offensively and it starts with a terrible offensive line. The Falcons have what might be the worst offensive line in football.

Washington's defensive front hasn't played nearly as well as expected so far this year, but Washington has a great chance to cause this Atlanta offensive line a lot of trouble in this game. Washington has been hearing about their underperformance on the defensive line, and I think they show up and give the Falcons a lot of trouble here.

Taylor Heinicke has had issues with bad turnovers of late. I think Washington is likely to play it safe more often with him this week hoping to keep the turnovers to a minimum. A more conservative game plan and a slower pace of play is likely.

Both offenses have a bunch of question marks.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTEP offense is quite a bit better than they were a few years ago. UTEP is averaging 6.11 yards per play (48th best in the nation). The Miners rank 17th best in the nation in offensive explosiveness. Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett are very good playmakers on the outside. Cowing is averaging a stunning 23.4 yards per reception this year.

Old Dominion ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Monarchs aren't a good team. The one thing they have been able to do pretty well this year is run the football. Old Dominion ranks 28th in the nation in rushing success rate. UTEP is a mediocre run defense and the Monarchs should be able to move the ball some on the ground here.

It's rare to find a total below the key number of 49 where you have one team playing quickly and the other team being explosive on offense. I don't think this number should be this low. Sure this is a sloppy game between two teams who have been bad in recent years. Still, there are plenty of reasons to think there should be some points here. The weather looks good for this contest as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are running an air raid with Bailey Zappe and his offensive coordinator from last year at Houston Baptist. How's it looking so far? The early results have been great. The Hilltoppers are third in the nation in yards per play at 8.27. They are 4th in the nation in passing plays success rate at 55.65%. The tempo has been very fast. Western Kentucky ranks 10th in the nation in tempo.

Michigan State's offense is light years better than they were last year. Walker is tremendous at running back. The Spartans are averaging 5.90 yards per carry on the year. That should be a big problem for a Western Kentucky team that is allowing 4.81 yards per carry (106th out of 130 in the country). In fact, Western Kentucky rates 125th out of 130 in the nation in defensive rushing plays success rate. The Spartans passing attack has been solid with Payton Thorne as well. They have picked up the pace significantly this season. The Spartans are 32nd out of 130 teams in the country in tempo.

Western Kentucky has thrown the ball on 65.2% of their offensive plays so far this year. They'll air it out and play fast here. Michigan State will gash Western Kentucky on the ground and mix in some successful passing plays as well.

The pace here should be very quick all the way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats have a way of making games ugly and low scoring. Northwestern's defense isn't quite as strong as it has been in most recent seasons, but I do think they will improve in Big Ten play as they usually do under defensive minded Pat Fitzgerald.

The Northwestern offense lost their starting running back, and against a good defensive front like Nebraska that should be a problem. Ryan Hilinski played well against Ohio last week, but Ohio is terrible defensively. This is a big step up in class against a Nebraska defense that allowed only 12 first downs last week against a solid Michigan State team.

Nebraska is fairly conservative on offense. They will run the football most of the time. I expect them to play from the lead and they have shown to get much more run heavy when playing from the lead.

The last couple years these two teams have played games that ended 13-10 and 21-13. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames haven't been quite as good offensively this year. The offensive line has been weak in pass blocking. Liberty has already allowed 14 sacks already this year. 

The Flames have also slowed their pace down drastically. A couple years ago this team was playing very quickly, but they sit 121st in the nation in tempo so far this year. They are running the football on 64% of their offensive snaps.

UAB ranks 128th in the nation in tempo. The Blazers are running the ball on 68% of their offensive snaps. The Blazers are going up against a Liberty defensive front that is 20th in the nation in yards per carry allowed so far this year. The Liberty secondary is a bit weak, but their front seven defensively is very solid.

With two teams playing very slowly and running the ball a lot, we should see a lot of running clock in this game. 

Look for a tight low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave have reinvented their offense with a new offensive coordinator. They now play extremely fast. Tulane ranks 8th in the country in tempo so far this year. The Green Wave will push the pace here and try to get as many possessions as possible. 

East Carolina ranks 119th in yards per play allowed this year. PFF grades them as the 25th worst defense in the country. Tulane should get a lot of big gainers in this one. 

Tulane's defense is struggling a bit because of their faster paced offense. The Green Wave rank 95th in yards per play allowed and PFF grades them as the 20th worst defense in the country. 

East Carolina ranks 46th in the nation in tempo so they play fast as well. The Pirates have enough playmakers to get up and down the field against Tulane here.

The tempo here should be very fast and we have two bottom 25 defenses in the country.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Tanner Morgan looks lost at QB. I don’t think PJ Fleck trusts him now and it is hard to blame him. Turnover worthy play on 6 percent of plays so far this year. In Minnesota’s last 3 games, Morgan has 17, 17, and 13 passes attempted. He likely won't throw it many times here. That kind of pace with a ton of running plays is going to bleed a lot of clock. They rank 129th out of 130 teams in tempo in the country, so Minnesota is playing so slowly.

Purdue’s offense ranks 87th in yards per play this year. David Bell is a superstar WR for Purdue and he is questionable for this game. Purdue averages just 2.91 ypc and they are shorthanded when it comes to weapons on offense. The Purdue defense has been impressive this year. The Boilermakers are 30th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 5th in the nation in success rate allowed on defense. Minnesota isn't likely to be efficient against this group.

The Minnesota defense gave up only 1.4 yards per play against Colorado and only 3.1 yards per play against Bowling Green last week.

There are winds of 12-15 mph and a slight chance of showers in the forecast.

Take the under here.

*4 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers have made a habit of putting up big point totals against Green Bay. San Francisco has scored 30, 37, 37, and 17 points in the last four meetings between these two teams. The time when they scored 17 points was last year when Nick Mullens was the starter. Jimmy G is back and he looks pretty good to start the season. Kittle is healthy and he has absolutely crushed this Green Bay defense time and time again. 

This Green Bay defense has been worse than last year's version so far. They have very little pass rush and the secondary is a question mark. 

San Francisco's secondary is weaker than it was a year ago. The 49ers also don't have very many reliable pass rushers. 

Both Green Bay and San Francisco's defenses have gotten to play the Detroit Lions, who are one of the weaker offenses in the NFL. 

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense got going late in the Monday night win over the Lions. I think they'll have success again here. Can Green Bay stop San Francisco? I see nothing that would make me think they can.

Jerome Boger's crew is officiating this game. The over is a whopping 114-79 in Boger's games (59.1% overs). 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals defense has impressed me so far this year. The Bengals have clearly upgraded their secondary, and their linebackers who were completely raw last year are now experienced enough to hold their own. Cincinnati held the Bears to 3.4 yards per play today. 

The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line was a problem against the Bears. They were struggling to get a push, and Joe Burrow was under too much pressure. The Steelers strong front seven are likely to make things very tough on the Bengals offensive front here. 

Pittsburgh has scored just 23 and 17 points in their first two games. Against Buffalo, they got a punt block for a TD. This is a Steelers offense that has yet to find itself this season.

The Steelers still have a very good defense that will be very tough for most teams to move the ball on.

This is a divisional rivalry and these AFC North contests have been good under bets. Totals of 41 points or higher in an AFC North matchup are 69-48-1 to the under in the last 118 meetings (59% unders).

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are a mess defensively so far this year, but they are much improved on offense. Austin Kendall is a transfer from Oklahoma and West Virginia and he has fit into the Skip Holtz offense perfectly this year. LA Tech has now played 3 games and the lowest scoring contest was 35-34. 

LA Tech has picked up their pace this year. They rank 33rd in tempo this season. The Bulldogs rank 12th in the nation in offensive explosiveness, so they are getting a bunch of big gainers. They are up against a defense that has allowed the 7th worst opponent QBR this year so far. The Bulldogs aren't likely to have any trouble moving the ball through the air with Kendall under center here.

North Texas always plays very fast. They rank 9th in the nation in tempo so far this season. The Mean Green haven't been able to put up too many points, but they did play a couple pretty good defenses in SMU and UAB. North Texas also has 8 trips into the red zone this year and they only have 2 TD's in those 8 trips into the red zone. That should positively regress over time.

A game with a lot of tempo and two defenses rated in the bottom 15 in the country in yards per play allowed. I think there will be quite a bit of scoring here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys ran the ball on more than 80 percent of their offensive snaps last week against Boise State. Mike Gundy doesn't trust Spencer Sanders, and I can't blame him. Sanders was disappointing last year with Wallace and Stoner on the outside. Now, he doesn't have the same type of weapons to throw the football to. 

Oklahoma State is averaging 4.82 yards per play (108th in the nation) so far this year. Kansas State is ninth in the country this year at yards per carry allowed at only 1.93 ypc allowed. The Cowboys aren't likely to be able to get a lot of big gainers against this Wildcats defensive front.

Oklahoma State's defense is arguably the best defense they have ever had under Mike Gundy. Even with Ford injured, this Cowboys defense is nasty. They are giving up only 2.58 yards per carry on the season. The Cowboys go up against a Kansas State offense that is certainly more limited with Howard at quarterback. Skylar Thompson is far more capable through the air. That should allow Oklahoma State to hone in on stopping the run.

A ton of running the football in this one. I think both defenses do a good enough job slowing down the run that this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Stanford Cardinal are going to be without all kinds of guys in this one. Stanford will be without three of their primary four running backs. They'll be without their star safety. Two of their cornerbacks are doubtful as well.

Stanford has been a pass heavy team all year, and I would expect them to be even more pass heavy in this game. The Cardinal do appear to have an edge in the passing game. UCLA ranks just 68th in PFF's coverage grade. Stanford ranks in the top 30 in the country in passing efficiency with Tanner McKee at quarterback. McKee has done a nice job stepping in for the Cardinal.

UCLA's offense ran the ball easily against their first two opponents before Fresno State slowed them down last week. The Bruins have a massive running edge here against a Stanford defense that has allowed a whopping 5.85 yards per carry (125th out of 130 teams) on the year thus far. I think Chip Kelly's team will have a big day on the ground here. DTR has thrown downfield more this year. UCLA has good enough receivers to take advantage of Stanford's injuries in the secondary.

This contest was 34-34 at the end of regulation last year. I think both offenses have the advantage again this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves defense has been absolutely awful this year. How bad? They are dead last (130th out of 130 teams) in yards per play allowed this year. They have given up 7.52 yards per play. They allowed a whopping 680 yards against Memphis. They then allowed 598 yards against a very questionable Washington offense last week. 

Tulsa put up 501 yards of offense against Ohio State. They should have scored more than 20 points in that game. Their passing attack has looked much better in the last few quarters. While Ohio State's defense isn't good now, it is certainly better than the Arkansas State defense. Tulsa should hit some big gainers. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 16 plays of 30 yards or more this season already.

The Arkansas State offense is playing at the 12th fastest pace in the country. Tulsa isn't nearly as good defensively this year without Zaven Collins. Arkansas State is throwing it around this year. They are throwing the ball on 62% of offensive plays. The Tulsa secondary is questionable, and the pass rush is much weaker this year.

This is a hot weather game and that has been good for overs in the past. Games with a temperature of 84 degrees or higher and less than 10 mph wind (with a total of 65 or less) are 59% to the over since 2005.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank 3rd in the nation in tempo. Marshall is using only 20.33 seconds between plays. The Thundering Herd are also averaging 7.58 yards per play so far this year. Marshall's offense is throwing the ball on 55% of their plays and they are taking plenty of shots downfield. Grant Wells has looked very good so far this season.

Appalachian State ranks 82nd (just a bit slow) in tempo. The Mountaineers are averaging an impressive 6.60 yards per play on offense. Chase Brice has been a better fit in the offense than most expected (including myself). 

The Marshall defense looks good on paper, but they just gave up 42 points to E Carolina, who was the first decent offense they faced. Marshall has allowed only 7 red zone scores on 12 trips for opponents. Five forced turnovers in the red zone isn't sustainable out of 12 attempts. Marshall's defense is due for negative regression to the mean.

With the pace this is played at being a Marshall game and a total only in the mid 50's, I have to side with the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have a new faster paced offense with the new coaching staff this year. Justin Herbert is a perfect fit for this offense at the quarterback spot. He has plenty of weapons surrounding him, and the Chargers have upgraded the offensive line position a great deal. Rashawn Slater looks like a star already. The Chargers racked up 424 yards of offense against Washington last week. They go against a much worse Dallas defense in this one. 

Dallas isn't good at all on defense, and now they will be without their best defensive player, DeMarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys secondary is a major problem area, and now they have a much weaker pass rush. 

The Chargers are expected to be without cornerback Chris Harris in this game. Justin Jones is also doubtful on the defensive line. The Chargers defense isn't a bad unit, but it is far from dominant. 

The Dallas Cowboys offense has all sorts of weapons and Dak Prescott looked good in the season opener. Dallas should be able to score and score quickly against most teams this year. Can their defense get any stops? That is a tougher question. They'll need to win shootouts more than likely.

This game is indoors and early season games between non divisional foes in a dome have been good over bets long term.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals play at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. Arizona torched Tennessee for 38 points last week. The Titans offense was a no show in that game. I think Minnesota's offense will show up more than the Titans did a week ago.

Arizona does have a very good pass rush, but the Cardinals secondary is extremely weak. They face a top 3 group of wide receivers in the NFL in this game. Dalvin Cook is also a great pass catcher out of the backfield. Kirk Cousins has all sorts of weapons around him.

Kyler Murray looks great this year. He is healthy and looks extremely mobile. This is a guy who is extremely tough to defend. The Cardinals have DeAndre Hopkins and multiple very fast wideouts to hit the home run ball with. The Vikings secondary is another questionable secondary.

The over is 55.5% in dome games in the NFL in the first two months of the season in the last six years. This is on the fast track and I expect to see some big plays here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New York Jets offense looked very weak against the questionable Carolina Panthers defense last week. The Jets had just 8 points going into their final drive of the game. The Panthers sat back in prevent and the Jets then went on a touchdown drive and the game finished 19-14. Even with that long TD drive at the end of the game, the Jets only finishing with 4.2 yards per play. 

The New England Patriots defense is much better than the Carolina defense. It would be very surprising if the Jets can score much here. 

On the other side, the Patriots are going to lean on the run game more this year once again, and the Jets are a pretty good run defense. I think this is the type of game where a Patriots lead and then conservative play calling and running the clock is very reasonable to expect.

New England is a well coached defense and they should bother Wilson in this game. Expect them to bring pressure after him here. 

The Jets defensive coaching staff is pretty good too, and I don't think the Patriots are anxious to hurry up and take a bunch of big risks.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys offense is way down this year. Spencer Sanders no longer has Wallace or Stoner to throw to on the outside. The Cowboys still have some good running backs, but the offensive line play has been very questionable. In fact they rank 108th in run blocking grade according to PFF. 

Boise State's running game has been terrible this year as well. The Broncos are averaging 2.24 ypc on the season. How bad is the Boise State offensive front? They rank 122nd in PFF in run blocking grade. That is behind teams like USF and UConn. 

The weather could be a factor here as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are expected for this game. There is also a chance for some rain. That could make the two teams more conservative on offense, and that helps the under.

Oklahoma State has somehow been amazing in the red zone (7 trips and 7 scores- including 6 TD's). That should regress to the mean. This isn't a good offense right now. Boise State has allowed 50% on third down conversions for their opponents, but I think that improves over the course of the year.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons defense looks amazing right now. Why? They have gone up against the Lafayette Leopards and a terrible Navy offense. Navy runs the same style offense Air Force does, and they frankly aren't any good at it right now either. 

Air Force's defense may be pretty good this year, but they definitely aren't this good. I'll look to try to take advantage of the fact that their defensive numbers are skewed going into this game.

Utah State is a much improved offense with Blake Anderson as head coach and Logan Bonner at quarterback. The Aggies are playing at the 10th fastest pace in the country. They are really getting off a lot of snaps quickly. Utah State should test Air Force with their solid running game and their ability to get the ball out quickly in the passing game.

On the other side, Air Force is an excellent running team. Utah State has allowed 4.28 ypc so far on the year and that was against Washington State and North Dakota. The Aggies clearly have some issues on the defensive end, and I would expect Air Force to be able to take advantage of those weaknesses.

This is an awfully low total for a game involving a team that plays as fast as Utah State. These aren't great defenses either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bo Nix has drastic home and road splits in his career. According to Sports Reference, Nix has thrown 15 TD's and 1 INT at home in his career. On the road he has 9 TD's and 10 INT's. He only has a 54% completion percentage on the road. Nix is playing at Happy Valley in front of a Whiteout crowd that will be amped up for this game. A very tough spot for an opposing quarterback.

Auburn is very likely to try to run the ball early and often with Tank Bigsby and company. They will likely get some yards, but I don't see them gashing Penn State for a bunch of big gainers here. The Nittany Lions have been tremendous on defense so far this year. They allowed only 3.8 yards per play in Madison in a win over Wisconsin.

Sean Clifford is inconsistent at quarterback for Penn State as well. Clifford is going up against an excellent secondary in Auburn. The Tigers likely have a top 5 secondary in the country. Penn State ranks 89th in the country in explosiveness on offense, so they aren't likely to be hitting many big plays here either. 

Two good defenses who do a good job denying big plays and questionable quarterbacks.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals are in the thick of the race for the NL Wildcard. This is a game that means a lot to both teams.

The San Diego Padres have picked a bad time to go into the worst offensive slump of the season for this team. The Padres have scored 1 run or less in 5 of their last 10 games. They scored only two last night. They now have to go up against Adam Wainwright, who has been throwing the ball really well. 

Wainwright has a sparkling 1.24 ERA in his last 7 starts. He has thrown a shutout in 4 of those 7 starts. 

Yu Darvish starts for the Padres. He had a terrible outing in his last start, but the Cardinals aren't very good against right handed pitching, and Darvish does have tremendous stuff.

Phil Cuzzi is the umpire here at home plate, and that's a great thing for the under. Cuzzi has a very high strikes called percentage and in his career the under has hit in 55.1% of his games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd are playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. That is despite the fact that they have played in two epic blowouts against Navy and North Carolina A&T. This team just keeps their foot on the gas and scores as much as they can. 

East Carolina has played Appalachian State and South Carolina so far this year. Those two teams rank 96th and 102nd in the country in tempo. They now go up against a team with a better offense and a team that is willing to play much faster. The Pirates are likely to give up quite a few points here. 

East Carolina's offense should improve over the course of the season, and both Appalachian State and South Carolina do have solid defenses. Marshall's defense is good, but it isn't as good as it has been in recent years.

The pace of this game makes me think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen once again have one of the worst defenses in the country. UMass allowed 51 points against Pitt and 45 against Boston College. Boston College scored 45 points in that game despite their star QB (Jurkovec) going down early with an injury. 

Eastern Michigan is a good passing team. I would expect them to be able to throw the ball with ease against UMass. UMass has allowed 14 plays of 20 yards or more in just two games. 

The UMass offense is improving. They put up 28 points against a pretty decent Boston College defense last week. I think they can score here against a middle of the road or worse MAC defense in Eastern Michigan. 

A total set this low with two weak defenses is a good look to the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The biggest negative of taking the under in a game between Florida State and Wake Forest is you know there will be a fast tempo from both teams. Still, a total in the 60's between two inefficient offenses makes me like the under here.

Wake Forest is averaging only 5.88 yards per play on the year (66th in the nation). They have played Old Dominion and Norfolk State. These are two awful defenses. The Demon Deacons are unlikely to be able to run on a Florida State defense that is giving up only 2.34 yards per carry on the season. They'll need to air it out. Sam Hartman is a pretty good quarterback, but Wake Forest is a short passing attack and they are unlikely to hit many big plays down the field.

Florida State's offense ranks 86th in yards per play so far this year. This is still a bad offensive line that holds this team back. The Seminoles are unlikely to fix their problems on the offensive line anytime soon. Wake Forest can bring some pressure and I think they'll have success doing so in this game.

This projects as a sloppy game between two improving defenses and two offenses who lack identity.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes defense is very strong led by linebacker Nate Landman. Colorado gave Texas A&M's offense a really hard time last week in Boulder. This unit is especially strong in the front seven. That's what you want when you are about to go up against the Minnesota Golden Gophers offense. 

Minnesota relies heavily on the running game. They are without star running back Ibrahim now, but I still expect them to be a solid running team through the season. They lack star wide receivers now that Bateman is gone. Morgan is a solid quarterback, but they want to rely on the running game most.

The Colorado offense is still trying to find itself. The Buffaloes lack a downfield passing game and that makes things easier on the opposition. 

Both Minnesota and Colorado are running the ball on almost 70% of their offensive plays so far this season. A bunch of running the football means a lot of running clock. Minnesota ranks 123rd out of 130 in the nation in tempo. Colorado is also pretty slow at 88th. I think we see a lot of slow drives with the clock ticking away here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers host the Virginia Tech Hokies in what should be a good contest in Morgantown on Saturday afternoon.

Virginia Tech's performance on defense this year has really impressed me. In two games they have allowed only one play of 30 yards or more. That includes their season opener against a great North Carolina offense. The Virginia Tech front seven ranks 4th in the country in defensive havoc rate, so they are getting in the backfield early and often. West Virginia's offensive line is their biggest weakness on offense, and the Hokies should cause trouble in the backfield here.

The Virginia Tech offense hasn't impressed me very much this season. They are averaging only 5.26 yards per play (88th in the nation) despite playing a weak MTSU defense and a mediocre North Carolina defense. Braxton Burmeister hasn't proven himself as a passer. This is still a very good West Virginia defense. 

Virginia Tech runs the ball on about 65% of their offensive plays. Even their successful drives will take a long time. West Virginia's offensive line issues should make it hard for them to sustain too many drives.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's held off the Kansas City Royals 12-10 on Wednesday night. Kansas City has been tremendous offensively of late. How good? The Royals have scored six runs or more in 8 of their last 12 games overall. 

Oakland has put up 7 runs or more in 5 of their last 11 games, so the A's have been having offensive outbursts often in recent contests.

This is a mid afternoon contest where the high temperature will reach about 87 degrees. The wind will be blowing out toward left field at about 11 or 12 mph throughout this game. That's a great environment for run scoring.

Paul Blackburn and Daniel Lynch are both subpar pitchers at this point, and there should be plenty of people on base throughout this game.

The over is 18-6 in Nestor Ceja's 24 games behind home plate.

Take the over in this afternoon contest. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers offense has woken up a bit of late. They have scored 18 runs in their last three games, and some of the guys who weren't hitting the ball very well are showing signs of life. The Dodgers are healthier now than they were in the middle of the season offensively. 

The Diamondbacks offense isn't great, but having Ketel Marte back in the lineup has helped a lot. Marte is their best hitter, and he has been solid down the stretch. 

Tony Gonsolin isn't likely to pitch very deep into the game, and the Dodgers middle relief is questionable. Gonsolin is coming off an injury and only went 3 innings in his last start.

Luke Weaver starts for the DBacks and he is a below average righty. The Dodgers excel against right handed pitching.

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. Wegner is one of the best over umpires in the business. His strikeout/walk ratio of 2.14 for 2020 and 2021 is extremely low. He is a hitter-friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have some significant offensive problems. The Bears have a weak offensive line and a lack of skill position talent. Andy Dalton isn't likely to be the answer for this team. The Bears are very likely to be conservative on offense and play at a slow tempo. I would expect Aaron Donald and the Rams defensive line to be a major problem for the Chicago offense. 

The Bears defense is still an above average unit. Stafford should do pretty well with the Rams, but I don't think they'll find moving the football easy against this solid Bears defense. 

The last 3 years these teams have played each year. The final total score was 26.6 points. None came even close to this total.

Allen Robinson is a great weapon, but Jalen Ramsey will matchup with him. The Bears should struggle to find anyone else to turn to. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two young quarterbacks up against talented and well coached defenses. I would expect to see two conservative game plans in this contest.

The Miami secondary is excellent. Mac Jones starts right from game one for the Patriots, but he isn't surrounded by great talent and Miami's secondary will be tough to beat. 

Tua Tagovailoa was good in the preseason, but his regular season performances haven't been very good. He's up against a great defensive coach here. I would expect Miami to want to run the football more than normal in this game.

Both of these defenses have been good at preventing the big play. I think that continues in this game.

The weather here calls for 15 mph winds throughout the game. That isn't massive, but it does help the under some.

Will Fuller is out for this game for Miami too, which certainly limits their vertical passing game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Arizona Cardinals offense will once again play very quickly this year. Kyler Murray wasn't very healthy down the stretch last year. He is once again healthier now and I expect big things from him. It doesn't hurt that he now has De'Andre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and AJ Green on the outside. 

The Titans pass defense is subpar, and I think Arizona is the type of team that can take advantage of that early and often. 

Speaking of vulnerable secondaries, the Cardinals pass defense is a clear weakness. Ryan Tannehill has been great in this Titans system. He now has another star in Julio Jones on the outside. AJ Brown is excellent as well. The Cardinals aren't likely to be able to slow this duo down.

I think both of these teams will have a lot of success on offense. Another clear positive in this game is Jerome Boger's crew is here. Boger's crew is notorious for defensive penalties and high scoring games. In fact, the over is a whopping 114-77 in Boger's games as the crew chief (59.7% overs). 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kentucky Wildcats have a new offensive coordinator in Liem Coen. They also have a new quarterback in Will Levis. Levis looks like a significant upgrade from any QB the Wildcats played last year. Coen's system is more pass happy, and that will keep the opposition honest. In the past couple years, Kentucky could only run the ball. 

Missouri's defense is a relative weakness. The Tigers will likely struggle with the now two dimensional Kentucky offense. 

Connor Bazelak has proven to be a really nice QB for the Missouri offensive scheme. Drinkwitz is a good coach and I see Missouri continuing to improve especially on the offensive end. The Tigers have some nice weapons at the wideout spots. Kentucky has had a strong defense in recent years, but they have lost some key talent and they are no better than a mediocre SEC defense now.

The faster pace Kentucky is playing at is not factored into the totals yet.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Liberty and Troy should be a fun contest on Saturday. Liberty is a great "smaller name" team with Hugh Freeze doing a great job leading this team. It helps to have Malik Willis at quarterback. Liberty has won 9 straight games ATS. 

I'm not as interested in the wager ATS here, but I do like the value on the total. These are two teams who like to run the football a lot. Liberty is great at running the ball, but the strength of the Troy defense is their defensive line. 

Liberty's weakness defensively is their secondary, but I'm not convinced Troy has the offensive scheme and players in place to take advantage of that. Both Taylor Powell and Gunnar Watson are conservative and don't take many deep shots. We see a lot of screen passes and quick slants. 

The Liberty defensive front has gotten much better in recent years against the run. I expect Troy to run the football a lot here and if they do move it down the field it will take quite a bit of time.

With a total set this high, you have to see a lot of explosive plays to reach the total. I think both teams will play slow enough and keep things in front of them that there is value to the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes go to Ames to take on the Iowa State Cyclones this week. Iowa has dominated this series in recent history despite Iowa State having the better record and higher ranked team in many of those games. This has become quite the rivalry contest.

Iowa State has a top 3 group of linebackers in the country. The DLine is also stacked from a run stuffing standpoint. That is good against an Iowa team that is very conservative and dependent on the running game. Iowa's Petras hasn't proven himself as a quarterback yet.

The Iowa State offense is good, but they have struggled badly against this Iowa defense in the past. In two of the last four meetings, Iowa State has scored 3 points. In 3 of the last 4 they have scored 17 points or less. Iowa still has a top 10 or 12 secondary in the country. The Hawkeyes are always good against the run. 

Both of these teams play at a pace far slower than the average team in the country. There should be a lot of running clock.

The current forecast for Ames calls for 15-20 mph winds throughout this game. I like the under even without this, but it is a nice bonus if it comes to fruition.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bowling Green Falcons looked somewhat better on defense against Tennessee, but this Falcons team is still absolutely hapless on offense. Also, Bowling Green slowed their tempo down drastically in game one. Despite being far behind the Volunteers in the second half, Bowling Green averaged using 31.64 seconds between plays (very slow). 

South Alabama made a good hire in Kane Wommack. Wommack was wonderful as a defensive coordinator at Indiana, and he talked highly about the potential for this South Alabama defense. They looked great in week one against Southern Miss. Southern Miss averaged just 3.49 yards per play. Frank Gore Jr. and company couldn't get going against South Alabama.

South Alabama averaged 30.59 seconds between plays in week one, and I would expect this team to continue to play slower than an average team. They will look to run the ball often as well and that keeps the clock moving.

This one is totaled 4 points above my projected total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes lost their quarterback from last year, and the QB spot is a big question mark now. I expect Colorado to run the ball early and often this year and try to play at an extremely slow pace. They did have a big lead against N Colorado, but 77% of their offensive snaps in that game were running plays. 

Colorado's defense is led by star Nate Landman. I expect this Buffaloes defense to be improved compared to a year ago.

Texas A&M has one of the best defenses in the country this year. Mike Elko is an excellent defensive coordinator, and this is the most talented defense he has had at Texas A&M. They gave up only 10 points against a really good Kent State offense last week. Texas A&M is led by O'Neal at strong safety. The defensive line is full of highly recruited talent. The Aggies are going to be very hard to move the ball on this year.

Texas A&M still has question marks at quarterback, and I expect a fairly conservative game plan from the Aggies. They are talented on offense, but don't yet have a clear vision of what they will be. 

Take the under.  

*4 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers are likely to finish the country in the top 3 in the nation in tempo. Josh Heupel's teams always play at warp speed. UCF was first in the nation in pace of play last year. Tennessee averaged only 17.81 seconds between plays last week despite blowing out Bowling Green. The Volunteeers will play with extreme tempo.

Pittsburgh has picked up their pace last year and this year. Kenny Pickett is now a veteran QB who knows this system very well. The Tennessee defense is much weaker than they have been in recent seasons. They are especially weak in the secondary. Pitt should be able to take advantage.

The Pitt defense is still a good one, but they aren't nearly as dominant as they were a couple years ago. They lost several good defensive linemen, and their top safety (Hamlin) from last year. They will give up more big plays this year.

The tempo will be extremely quick, and this is still a total set fairly low. I think it is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys averaged only 1.93 yards per carry against Missouri State in week one. PFF graded their run blocking lower than they did for any Oklahoma State game last year. It was against Missouri State! Oklahoma State lacks weapons in the passing game that they had last year. Both Stoner and Wallace are gone and their deep threats are severely lacking. 

Spencer Sanders missed last week's game because of COVID protocols and he is questionable here. Sanders still has never shown he can be great in this offense and now he is without his star receivers. The offensive line in front of him is a big question mark.

Tulsa's offense is a huge question mark. Davis Brin steps in at QB, but Tulsa lost 19-17 against UC Davis in week one. Brin has 2 INT's and no touchdown passes. Smith was very good at QB for Tulsa last year and they will miss him. 

While Tulsa's defense is down without Collins, they still have a very good defensive front and I think they'll cause problems for the Oklahoma State offensive line.

The weather here calls for very hot temperatures and 20 mph winds gusting to 30 mph during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have a new look this year. Western Kentucky is airing it out early and often. They brought in Bailey Zappe at quarterback from Houston Baptist. They also brought in Zach Kittley as their offensive coordinator. He was the OC at Houston Baptist a year ago. If that wasn't enough, they brought in Houston Baptist's top two receivers from a year ago.

Western Kentucky's offense needed a complete overhaul after an ugly year last year, and that is exactly what they got. Now, the Hilltoppers are an air raid offense built around uptempo principles. 

Army is a slow paced team that relies on running the football about 85 or 90% of the time. Western Kentucky allowed 5.91 yards per carry last week against Tennessee Martin. It's highly unlikely that they'll be able to stop this Army ground attack. The Hilltoppers defense lost a ton from their front seven a year ago. 

What about Army on defense? They are accustomed to playing against triple option and run heavy teams. They have no one in practice who can simulate what Bailey Zappe and this impressive passing attack of Western Kentucky can do.

This total has been bet down a few points to a level where I have to play the over. I think both teams have an offensive edge here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays send Jose Berrios to the mound on Thursday against the New York Yankees. Berrios is at his best when he has elite control. In his last three starts, Berrios has 0 walks and 24 strikeouts. The Yankees lineup has scored a total of 4 runs in the first three games of this series. The Yankees have topped 4 runs in a single game only 2 of their last 11 contests.

Nestor Cortes starts for the Yankees and he has been very solid this year. Cortes has a great 2.67 ERA and a solid 3.63 FIP. It hasn't been a fluke. He has been very good. The Blue Jays lineup is a tough test, but George Springer is questionable with an injury and he is great against left handed pitching. 

Doug Eddings is behind home plate, and there is no better under umpire than Eddings. His strikes called percentages and strikeout/walk ratios are consistently either the best in the majors or in the top five. 

The weather here calls for 70 degrees so the ball shouldn't carry as well as it does sometimes at Yankee Stadium.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Triston McKenzie has been a really highly touted starting pitcher for the Indians over the last few years. McKenzie struggled a bunch earlier this year. What was wrong? McKenzie wasn't trusting his stuff. He was nibbling on the corners too much and walking far too many batters. He was routinely walking 4 or 5 batters a game. That won't cut it in the majors. 

McKenzie has changed his approach in the last month and the results have been amazing. He has walked three batters in his last five starts combined. McKenzie has allowed just 5 hits in his last 21 innings pitched! It has been a spectacular run for McKenzie of late. The Twins don't have the strong offense we expected at the beginning of the season. They have had key injuries and traded away some top talent as well.

Joe Ryan starts for the Twins here. Ryan is a very high strikeout guy. He averaged nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings in Triple A this year. The Indians offense has been streaky all year, but they have been ice cold the last couple nights. 

The weather here is helpful with a relatively cool summer night in Cleveland and the winds blowing in at about 10 mph. 

Dan Merzel is the umpire here and his strikes called percentage is above 65%. His strikeout/walk ratio is above 3. He is an under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies have been much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. The Phillies are only 18th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. The Phillies are an impressive 8th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

While Eric Lauer's numbers for this year look decent, I'm not about to think he is a really good left handed starter. The Phillies lineup should get chances here.

Aaron Nola has disappointed down the stretch. Nola has good stuff, but he is inconsistent. Nola has a 5.57 ERA on the road this year. He just gave up 6 runs to the Nationals in his last start. The Phillies bullpen is still a clear weakness.

We have a low total here and two offenses who have been hitting the ball pretty well overall.

Jerry Meals is the umpire here and that's a clear plus for the over. The over is 18-7 in his 25 games behind home plate this year. Meals long term has a very low strikeout/walk ratio- so he has consistently been a hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen started terribly on defense last year. They weren't even hitting in practice and it showed in their 55-3 loss to BYU in their season opener. By the end of the season, Navy had clearly improved a lot on defense. They allowed 10 against Memphis, 19 against Tulsa, and 15 against Army in their last three games a year ago. Diego Fagot is a top notch linebacker, and he will lead an improved Navy defense this year.

Marshall's defense ranked 4th in the country in yards per carry allowed last year. The Thundering Herd will once again be stellar against the run. Marshall's Jamere Edwards is a superior run stuffer. Penn State transfer Shane Simmons will help on the defensive line as well.

The Thundering Herd ranked 83rd in tempo out of 128 teams last year. Navy ranked 117th. The Midshipmen will rank in the bottom five in the country in tempo in neutral situations this year. They only push the pace if they get way down. The oddsmakers expect this game to be close and I think that is a fair assumption. 

Neither team is particularly explosive on offense, and there will be a lot of running clock.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights ranked 15th in the nation in tempo last year. Sean Gleeson put his stamp on the offense and they clearly improved. Do I think they will become a great offense this year? No. I do think they will be even better though. 

Temple's defense rated 127th out of 128 teams in the country last year in tackling grade according to PFF. The Owls missed tackles like it was their job. They ranked 124th in opponent QBR. They picked up only 13 sacks in 7 games. 

Temple's offense should be improved with Georgia transfer D'Wan Mathis at the helm. He was a very highly touted QB, but was inconsistent at Georgia. A big step down in class here. Rutgers was 80th in yards per play on defense last year. Temple's offense should be better this year.

This is a fairly low total for a game with one team playing very fast. We also have two weak defenses. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* We have two teams who are much better against left handed pitching. The Nationals rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Phillies rank 7th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. The two teams are only 12th and 18th against right handers. Both will be up against a subpar left handed starter in this contest.

Patrick Corbin has a 7.26 ERA and a 6.39 FIP in his last 10 starts. He has allowed 4 runs or more in 8 of his last 10 starts. He has allowed a ridiculous 2.70 HR's per nine innings. Corbin's control has been poor and hitters are making him pay.

Matt Moore has a 6.12 ERA and a 5.70 FIP this year. Moore has an 8.02 ERA at home this year, so I don't even know if it is a good thing for him that this game is in Philly.

Neither bullpen is very good and both of these bullpens have been used heavily in recent days. Both of these starters have blowup potential so the bullpens might be needed for a long time.

I think both teams get a lot of baserunners and scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Logan Webb has been tremendous this season. He is pitching his best at the end of the season. Webb has a whopping 12 straight starts with 2 runs allowed or less. Webb has a 1.82 ERA in that time and a great 2.72 FIP as well. 

Huascar Ynoa has a 2.15 ERA at home this year. Ynoa is a highly rated prospect who has come in and thrown the ball well for the Braves right away this year. 

The Giants are without Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt right now. San Francisco ranks a mediocre 13th in wOBA on the road. The Braves are without Ronald Acuna and Marcell Ozuna. They rank 12th in wOBA at home. 

A total this high with two solid starters and two shorthanded offenses. The two bullpens are both solid and pretty well rested also.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* There are a bunch of key offensive players sitting out in this contest. Big Ben won't play for the Steelers and neither will Mason Rudolph. It will be Dwayne Haskins and Josh Dobbs under center for Pittsburgh here. That should mean a lot of cautious play calls. Najee Harris is also expected to be out, and the Steelers are very short on running backs behind him. The offensive line is still a big question mark too.

For the Panthers, Christian McCaffrey is out and that slows the Panthers down a lot. We will see a lot of Will Grier and PJ Walker at quarterback and they are below average backups. The Steelers defense is a good one, and I don't see the Panthers having much success here.

Look for a low scoring ugly contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Top Total of the Month* Jesus Luzardo has been absolutely awful this year. He has been even worse of late. Luzardo certainly has talent and there is always a chance he puts it together at any point, but his form is terrible now. Luzardo has a 7.76 ERA and a 6.23 FIP on the year. He had a 6.52 ERA in Triple A in 8 starts. Luzardo has walked 13 batters in his last 12 innings pitched. He is allowing 2.26 homers per nine innings on the year. A terrible combination. 

Washington ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Nationals are up against a struggling lefty in Luzardo here and they should fare well. 

Erick Fedde has a 4.60 ERA in the first half of the season in his career. His second half ERA? 6.14 in his career. Not good at all. 

Both of these bullpens have struggled of late, and there should be plenty of base runners on the paths throughout this game. Luzardo's four starts with the Marlins have seen a whopping 64 runs scored in total. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both the Rockies and the Diamondbacks are significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. The Rockies are 3rd in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Diamondbacks are 9th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. How do this teams do against right handed pitching? The Rockies are 17th in the majors in wOBA against righties. The DBacks are 27th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Jon Gray is a rare starter who actually has pitched better at home at Coors Field than he has away from Coors Field. Gray is in good form coming into this game. The DBacks have a batting average on balls in play of a whopping .355 (very lucky) in the past 13 games, but they have scored 3 runs or less in 7 of those 13 contests.

Ryan Blakney is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire based on his strikes called and strikeout/walk ratio consistently year over year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching this year. They are 15th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Sean Manaea has been up and down this year, but he is an above average lefty who has pitched pretty well at home in his career. 

Kevin Gausman has been really good for the Giants this year. Gausman has a 2.40 ERA and a 2.91 FIP on the season. The Oakland A's offense is middle of the road and this is still a pretty good pitcher's park.

Phil Cuzzi is the umpire behind home plate here, and that is a clear positive for the under. According to my umpire database, this is a guy who has consistently ranked in top 10 in strikes called- and he is a top six or under umpire in the majors.

In the past month these two teams are 2nd and 4th in bullpen ERA. I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Padres have definitely gotten desperate for some pitching help. They decided to sign Jake Arrieta to a contract. How has Arrieta pitched this year? He has a 6.88 ERA and a 6.12 FIP. In his last three starts with the Cubs, Arrieta allowed 27 hits and 14 runs in just 12 innings pitched. Arrieta isn't good at all, and the Rockies can mash at home.

Chi Chi Gonzalez makes  the start for the Rockies. Gonzalez is a fade pitcher for me to start with, and he is coming off the COVID list and is still trying to recover. He will be on a pitch count and then things will be handed over to the terrible Rockies bullpen. 

The temperature is expected to be 95 degrees at game time here. The ball really flies well at Coors in this kind of weather. Day games at Coors in hot weather have been great to over bettors in the last several years.

David Rackley is the home plate umpire. The over is 125-94 in his career games behind the plate.

I never go into a handicap wanting to bet over 14 since it is such a high number, but this one is justified.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants have been very good offensively of late, but they have had at least some good fortune. San Francisco has a batting average on balls in play of .353 in the last seven days. The Mets have a BABIP of .322 as well so they have been fortunate on offense also (and even then they haven't scored consistently). 

Marcus Stroman has a 2.78 ERA and a 3.45 FIP on the season. Stroman has a much better ERA and FIP late in the season in his career, and he has been pitching well of late. 

Logan Webb has been fantastic at home this year. Webb has a 1.58 ERA in 40 innings pitched at home. Webb has thrown 10 straight starts where he has allowed 2 runs or less. Needless to say, Webb has been tremendous for San Francisco.

The Giants rank in the top five in bullpen ERA in the past month. The Mets are in the middle of the pack. This is still a pitcher's park and Rehak (home plate umpire) is a good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jon Lester isn't good at all anymore. Lester has a 1.62 WHIP and a 5.57 ERA on the year. His FIP sits at 5.50 on the season. He is allowing a lot of hard contact, and he is averaging only 5.99 strikeouts per nine innings. That's a really bad combination. 

Brad Keller has a 5.79 ERA and an xERA of 6.64. Keller just allowed 5 runs in 5 innings against the Cardinals in his last start. He has walked four batters or more in four of his last eight starts. 

The Cardinals offense has woken up a bit of late. They are slowly getting healthier. 

The Royals offense has been better at home this year, and they are better against lefties. Both of these teams have questionable bullpens that have been used pretty heavily of late.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have been a top five offense this year against left handed pitching. They will face Detroit lefty Tarik Skubal in this one. Skubal has allowed a ton of hard contact this year. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in barrel rate. He has allowed a whopping 45.8% of batted balls to be classified as hard hit. Baltimore should scoring chances here. 

Detroit will go up against Matt Harvey. He has been all over the place this year. He has had some absolutely awful games, and he has had some pretty solid games. We know by his advanced metrics he isn't good. He's pitching in a very hitter friendly park here too. His numbers at home this year are much worse than on the road.

Orioles pitching has allowed a whopping 54 runs in their last 5 games! They have allowed 9 runs or more in each of those contests. Both of these bullpens have been struggling a lot of late.

Warm weather in the upper 80's with the wind blowing out about 10 mph helps here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on the Giants/Brewers under 8* Two teams predicated on superb pitching enter game two of this contentious series between two NL elites. The Brewers took game 1, limiting the away-team Giants to only 1 run behind an exceptional 7 innings from Corbin Burnes. Now Milwaukee will send out their other ace in Brandon Woodruff ((2.26 ERA, 0.88 WHIP over 131.1 innings). Woodruff needs little introduction. The 28 year old still boasts the best WHIP in baseball and owns an impressive 0.69 HR/9 innings rate, an 80.2% LOB rate, and xERA/FIP/xFIP marks all under 3.00. He's experienced a little regression in June and July but overall his command remains intact and he's terrific at preventing big slugs, something teams like San Francisco thrive off of (over the last 30 days the Giants are slugging .446 over and they're 2nd overall with 39 home-runs).

Making a start in place of Anthony DeScalfani, Aaron Sanchez (2.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP over 33.1 innings) will take the mound for the Giants Saturday. Recently off the IL, Sanchez looked crisp in his first start Tuesday against Arizona, throwing for 3 scoreless innings and only permitting 1 hit. One bad game against the Rockies at Coors Field back in May has inflated some of his numbers but Sanchez has looked really good overall. His short season has displayed his ability, like Woodruff, to limit power-hitting lineups and keep runners on base. Both the Giants and Brewers have experienced an offensive explosion the last few weeks but lately they're bats have cooled off. The under is 13-3 in Giants last 16 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

I expect another pitcher's duel tonight-- take the under. 

*3 Star Play Mariners/Rays over 9* The Mariners' pitching and defense is an issue. Allowing 30 runs over their last 5 games and ranked in the bottom third of the league in most defensive categories (69.7% LOB rate, 42.5% GB rate, 4.54 ERA), it's hard to like their chances against anyone right now. Seattle's Chris Flexen (3.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP over 108.2 innings) certainly doesn't have the worst numbers. He's a solid pitcher who can often guide his team to wins and his 9-5 record on the season proves as much. But when Flexen struggles he really struggles, and those challenges often come when he's pitching on the road. Flexen held the Angels to only 1 run over 6 innings in his last away start at LAA, but in 4 previous away starts he permitted 33 hits and 18 runs in just 18.3 innings.

Michael Wacha (4.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 71.1 innings) gets the nod for Tampa, who's far from their best arm, although the month of July served him better. He held onto a 3.60 ERA over 20 innings, allowing more than 3 runs in only one of those contests. Still, Wacha's profile isn't very promising-- his sinking LOB rate, lack of command in preventing home runs (1.77/9 innings), and his 5.67 xERA indicate his disappointing first year with the Rays. They also have me wondering if he's due for some negative regression.

Both offenses are at an advantage today. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres host the Oakland Athletics on Wednesday afternoon. Blake Snell starts for San Diego while Sean Manaea is on the hill for the A's. It's a battle of lefties and that is important for totals bettors here.

San Diego ranks 9th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. They rank 17th in the majors against left handed pitching. Oakland ranks 14th in wOBA against right handed pitching. The A's rank 21st in wOBA against left handed pitching.

Both Snell and Manaea are quality lefties. These two can have some trouble with walks at times, but with Ryan Blakney as the home plate umpire that is a positive. He is one of the better under umpires in baseball. His strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio is excellent for under bettors. 

These get away day games often have a key batter or two missing from the lineup for a day off. Both of these bullpens are very high quality as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals rank first in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) over the last 30 days. Washington ranks first in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitchers. They are up against Matt Moore who is clearly a subpar left handed pitcher. Moore has a 5.79 ERA and a 5.68 FIP this year. He has had a 5.52 ERA or higher in his last three seasons in the majors. Not good. 

Erick Fedde starts for Washington and his ERA is 8.71 in his last five starts. His FIP during that time is 5.96 as well. He is struggling with control in that time (5.23 walks per nine innings). The Phillies have a solid lineup and they have been better at home offensively.

A game time temperature of 88 degrees with light winds blowing out at about 6 mph is another plus. 

Both bullpens have been a mess for much of the season. There should be plenty of base runners throughout this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* If you had just been betting closeout game unders in the NBA playoffs over the past decade, you would have made a bunch of money. 

Game 5 was a very high scoring tight game between the Suns and Bucks. Both teams shot the ball exceptionally well. 

The pace started fast in the first couple games of this series and it has consistently gotten slower and slower as the series has went on. How did they score so many points in game five? Was it a faster pace? Nope. It was by far the slowest paced game in this NBA Finals so far. Milwaukee averaged a ridiculous 1.352 points per possession. Phoenix averaged a very high 1.293 points per possession. 

Phoenix needs this game to stay alive. Their coach called them out for their defensive performance in game five. They should give a lot of effort on that end here. Milwaukee has the length to bother Phoenix. The Bucks have several very good individual defenders.

As the games get more crucial the pace tends to slow down. That has happened thus far in this series. If we get a pace like the last couple games, it takes a shooting performance far above season averages to get to this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Orioles rank 26th in the majors in wOBA on the road this year. The Tampa Bay Rays rank 20th in wOBA at home this year.

Brian O'Nora is the home plate umpire here, and he has consistently been a very solid under umpire. He has above average strikes called and strikeout/walk percentages. 

John Means returns for the Orioles here. Tampa Bay has a bottom five offense in the majors against left handed pitching. Means is clearly an above average left handed pitcher. Tampa Bay has multiple injuries in their lineup right now as well.

Shane McClanahan starts for the Rays. The Orioles crushed left handed pitching earlier this year, but they have cooled off dramatically against lefties in the past month. Tampa Bay has a strong bullpen with good depth behind McClanhan as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) at home. They have a .283 wOBA at home this year. They are up against Patrick Sandoval here. 

Sandoval struggled quite a bit early on in the majors, but he was a highly touted prospect and he has pitched much better of late. Sandoval has a tremendous swinging strike rate of 16.8% so far this year. 

Chris Flexen has been great at home this year. Flexen starts for the Mariners here. Flexen has a 1.99 ERA in 54 and 1/3 innings at home this year. He has a ridiculous .240 wOBA allowed. This is a pitcher's park and Flexen has taken advantage. While the Angels usually have a good offense, they are without both Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon right now.

Kerwin Danley has been a good under umpire through the years and this is a fairly high total for a game in Seattle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds rank as a top five offense against right handed pitching. They also rank as a bottom five offense against left handed pitching. They are up against a lefty in Eric Lauer here.

Wade Miley starts for the Reds, and he has been solid this year. Miley has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.24 FIP on the season. He has a tremendous .244 wOBA allowed on the road this season. The Brewers offenses is middle of the road against lefties.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike of any umpire in the majors in the past five years. Eddings has an extremely high strikeout/walk ratio. He is a clear positive for under bettors.

The under is 34-16-2 in the Brewers last 52 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Reds last 5 vs. an NL Central foe.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jordan Montgomery starts for the Yankees here. Montgomery has been good at home throughout his career. Montgomery has a 3.36 ERA and a 0.278 wOBA when pitching at home. In his career on the road, he has a 5.10 ERA and a 0.331 wOBA allowed. The Seattle offense isn't particularly good, but they have improved quite a bit in the past month. 

The Yankees offense is better than they have shown so far this season. There are too many solid hitters in this lineup for them to struggle all season long. They have shown signs of improved in the last few games. Logan Gilbert starts for Seattle in this one. Gilbert has a 5.63 ERA at home so far this season. 

Both starting pitchers are capable of giving up a fairly big number here. I see two offenses improving, and with this low total, I like the chances for this to go over the total. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Pablo Lopez is a good pitcher, but I don't think he is quite as good as his numbers look so far this year. Lopez has major splits from the beginning of the season to the end of the season in his career. He is strong in the first two or three months of the year, and then he really falls off a lot from July through the end of the year. In fact, his ERA is over 6 in his career in July. 

Lopez is up against a Dodgers lineup that has been hitting the ball well. They are averaging 6 runs per game in their last five games. The Dodgers sat out Bellinger, Muncy, and Betts last night. That means we should get the best guys in the lineup on Tuesday night. 

Tony Gonsolin starts for the Dodgers here. While he has been pretty good, he doesn't pitch very deep into games and the Dodgers middle relief is their biggest weakness. Miami does have some power in the middle of the order and they should get some chances here.

Carlos Torres is the home plate umpire here. Torres has one of the five lowest strikes called percentages in the majors in the past two years. His strikeout/walk ratio also shows he is a tough umpire for the pitchers. He has a small strike zone.

This number is awfully low for a hot Dodgers offense being involved.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies start Vince Velasquez here. Velasquez is a below average right handed starter. He has always had drastic splits in day/night games. Velasquez has a career ERA of an ugly 5.40 in day games. His ERA last year in day games was 8.10 and this year it is 7.23. Velasquez gives up too many home runs and the ball can fly really well in Philly on warm days. 

Blake Snell has a 10.36 ERA on the road this year. That is 33 runs allowed in less than 29 innings. Opponents have a ridiculous .442 OBP against him on the road. He clearly isn't that bad, but Snell has struggled away from pitcher friendly San Diego. Snell faces a Philly offense that ranks 10th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

The San Diego Padres rank 5th in wOBA in the last 14 days. The Padres have a deep lineup and they have plenty of power in the middle of the order. 

If Velasquez gets out of this game early, the Phillies certainly have bullpen issues as well which can lead to a big number.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both starting pitchers here are capable of getting blasted. Jordan Lyles has typically started season pretty well and fallen apart in the hot summer months. Lyles has a career ERA of a whopping 6.18 in July. Lyles has been struggling all season this year, and his ERA of 5.12 and FIP of 5.07 show exactly that.

Marco Gonzales has a 5.10 ERA this year. His FIP is 5.32 and his xERA is a ridiculous 8.47. Gonzales is struggling with his control a lot more this year again (it was excellent last year after being a problem in the past). 

Texas and Seattle have both swung the bat well of late. Texas has scored 4 runs or more in 9 of their last 11 games. The Rangers have scores 6 or more in 5 of those 11 games. Seattle has scored 5 runs or more in 9 of their last 13 games. 

Sean Barber is the home plate umpire here and my umpire database shows that his strikes called percentage and his strikeout/walk ratios continue to be on the very low side. Barber looks like a solid over umpire in the last couple years.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* David Rackley is the home plate umpire for this game. The over is a whopping 122-92 in his games behind home plate (57% all time). He has a much smaller strike zone than the average umpire.

Justus Sheffield has been known to struggle to find the plate at times. Sheffield can usually pitch fairly well at home, but his road numbers aren't good at all. He comes into this one throwing the ball poorly of late.

Steven Matz is inconsistent and he is coming off the COVID list for this game. He is expected to be on a 60 pitch or so pitch count. 

Seattle has hit the ball much better of late (top 10 offense in the last two weeks). The Blue Jays have been one of the best offenses in baseball this year.

Sahlen Field is a tremendous hitters park. The Blue Jays have scored 9 runs or more in three of their last five games. They haven't scored less than five runs in any of those games. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals start Jon Lester here. Lester is far past his prime and he has been hurt by the home run in recent years. 

Michael Wacha is expected to start for Tampa Bay. Wacha is wildly inconsistent and this Washington offense has been heating up of late.

The temperature for this game is expected to be 92 degrees with winds blowing out at about 10 mph. Day games with that kind of hot weather and wind blowing out have been very good over bets in the past.

Tampa Bay struggles to score at home, but on the road they are a top 10 offense in baseball. Washington has gotten quite the contribution from Kyle Schwarber of late.

Take the over.