*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma defense is clearly good, but they aren't as good as they looked on paper. They hadn't faced a good offense so far this season, and Ole Miss rolled up 431 yards and 34 points on the Sooners. 

Tennessee plays at the second fastest pace of any team in the nation. The Volunteers are 12th in the nation in yards per play (Ole Miss is 25th), and I expect Tennessee to have success on offense here. Joey Aguilar has been great at home, and the Volunteers backfield is very good.

John Mateer has explosiveness in both the run and passing game, and the Vols defense has given up big plays all year. Oklahoma is 42nd quickest in the nation in tempo too, so there will be a lot of possessions in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers put up 33 points on Arkansas last week. Arkansas is a horrible defense, and even then Auburn only averaged 5.4 yards per play in that game. Arkansas turned the ball over 4 times and gave Auburn quite a few of those points. 

Auburn made a quarterback change to Ashton Daniels during the game last week. Daniels looked a bit better than Jackson Arnold in limited time, but I don't think he is going to fix this offense. Auburn is 116th in yards per pass attempt. They are 135th in sacks allowed per game. We don't know who the quarterback will be, but whoever it is will be playing behind a poor offensive line. 

Kentucky needs to run the football on offense to have much success. The Wildcats are 118th in passing play success rate on offense. They are 103rd overall in yards per play. Auburn is elite at stopping the run. They are 3rd nationally in YPC allowed. They are also third in rushing success rate allowed. They should stuff Kentucky on the ground.

These two teams are 99th and 119th in explosive play rate on offense. Neither offense is good in the red zone either.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have really impressed me on defense this year. Jake Dickert's team is playing really hard on that side of the ball. 

Wake Forest is first in the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed this year. The Demon Deacons are 11th in success rate allowed. They are 16th best in the nation in explosiveness allowed. 

Florida State is 33rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Seminoles are 30th in explosiveness allowed overall and 11th in rushing explosiveness allowed. 

Wake Forest is reliant on breaking big running plays, and the Seminoles appear set to slow that down. Wake Forest is just 123rd in the nation in offensive success rate.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs defense is dominant in every way. San Diego State is 4th in defensive success rate allowed. They haven't allowed a play of 50 yards or more all season (only 4 teams in the country can say this), and they are second best in the country in points per opportunity allowed. They don't give up big plays and are really tough in the red zone. They are fantastic against both the run and the pass. San Diego State has already held three teams to 0 points this season.

Wyoming's defense is top 5 in the country in points per opportunity allowed. Wyoming is also solid at not allowing explosive plays. The Cowboys are 18th nationally in explosiveness allowed. On offense, Wyoming is 108th in PPA/rush and 102nd in QBR. They are just 106th in explosiveness on offense.

San Diego State is bottom ten in the nation in tempo. The Aztecs are happy to run the football a bunch with a lead and keep the clock moving. That should be the case in the latter stages of this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos are a solid under team. They are a slow paced team that lacks explosivity on offense. They are 95th in the nation in tempo. They are 127th in explosiveness on offense. Western Michigan also has one of the best defenses in the MAC though. The Broncos are 15th nationally in yards per play allowed.

Central Michigan is one of the most run heavy teams in the country. They are 132nd out of 136 teams in the country in tempo. They are happy to shorten the game. 
These two teams are 104th and 92nd in the nation in points per scoring opportunity.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils will be without Sam Leavitt in this one. Leavitt is a really good QB and the drop off to backup Jeff Sims is a really big one. Jordyn Tyson is one of the best wide receivers in the country and he is considered doubtful for this game. Kyson Brown is out at RB as well. Center Ben Coleman will also miss this game.

Arizona State's game plan on offense should be far more conservative than it has been for the season overall. While others have taken advantage of the Iowa State injuries in the secondary, with Arizona State being so shorthanded I don't think they can do the same.

Arizona State's highest scoring game against an FBS opponent this year has been a total of 52 points. Their last two games have both been low scoring. 

Iowa State has been very poor in red zone offense. The Cyclones are just 78th nationally in explosiveness on offense too. Arizona State's defense is 14th in havoc rate so they should keep Becht a little unsure back in the pocket. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars are a slightly below average tempo team who has shown the willingness to drastically slow their pace when they are playing from a larger lead. 

West Virginia is a fast paced team that is wildly inefficient on offense. West Virginia is 112th in success rate on offense, and in recent weeks they have been even worse than that. The Mountaineers are run heavy because they are so banged up at quarterback, but Houston is a solid run stuffing team. Houston is 28th in the nation in YPC allowed. West Virginia is 125th in PPA/pass, and I don't think they'll be able to throw it here.

Houston's offense is run heavy, but they are just 122nd in the nation in rushing success rate. West Virginia isn't good against the pass, but the Mountaineers are 37th in rushing play success rate allowed. West Virginia's red zone defense has actually been very solid this season.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have had some very high scoring games so far this year. I think at least some of that is based upon who they have played though. They have played to a 233 point total against these Celtics. They played much higher scoring games against the Hornets, Magic, and Wizards. All three of those teams are top 12 in the NBA in tempo. All three of those teams are also in the bottom ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The Boston Celtics are the second slowest paced team in the NBA. Philadelphia is just 20th in the NBA in tempo. The first game between these two got to 233 points with a 72 point fourth quarter and 46 made free throws in the game. 

The Celtics are an above average defense. If the game is played at the normal pace of these two teams, it will take about 1.2 points per possession from both teams to get over this total. 

I'll side with the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes have an excellent defense. James Madison is 2nd nationally in defensive success rate allowed. They are 4th in YPC allowed. They are 4th nationally in explosiveness allowed too. James Madison is 4th in explosiveness allowed in the run game. 

James Madison is 123rd out of 136 teams in the country in pace of play. They are running the football quite a bit and using the clock. Texas State is 15th in pace of play, so we have a pace war here. 

Texas State is 15th in pass play success rate on offense. They are only 58th in rushing play success rate on offense. The Bobcats have relied on the pass and they lack explosivity in the run game.

The weather in San Marcos is a big factor here. The blend of 3 major forecasts calls for 20 mph sustained winds and gusts to 32 mph during this game. That really hurts Texas State's ability to throw the ball here. James Madison should run it a lot and slow the game down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two of the top three offenses in baseball, and Dodger Stadium is a hitter friendly venue on the whole The shadows here will be talked about and it could be an issue for some of the game, but start times at Dodger Stadium near this time have actually trended toward the over.

Max Scherzer isn't even close to the pitcher he once was, and he has a weakness against left handed hitting now. The Dodgers have elite lefties who are going to make things tough on Scherzer in this contest.

Tyler Glasnow is a good starter, but he doesn't usually pitch as deep in the game as most starters. The Blue Jays should work the count and score some runs here. Both Guerrero Jr. and Springer have had a lot of success against Glasnow in their history. 

I don't trust either bullpen all that much, and I think we'll see plenty of both of them.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals arguably have the worst defense in the NFL. It is certainly one of the bottom three or four defenses in the NFL. The Bengals have allowed 27 points or more in six straight games. 

The Jets have looked poor on offense of late, but the Bengals are the perfect opponent for Justin Fields to have a bounce back game against. He should be able to do some work on the ground and hit some big gainers through the air in this one. 

Joe Flacco is a large upgrade from Jake Browning, and the Bengals definitely have excellent targets on the outside. Sauce Gardner will miss this game, and I think Chase and Higgins should have a big game here. 

The weather looks good for this one, and I believe this total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers have scored a grand total of zero points in their last two games. Billy Edwards Jr is still injured and the Badgers are rotating between Hunter Simmons and Danny O'Neil under center. Neither of them have had any kind of success leading the way at QB.

Oregon's defense is 7th in the country in explosiveness allowed. They are 1st in QBR allowed and 21st in YPC allowed.

Wisconsin's defense has struggled against the pass, but they are still good against the run. The Badgers are 32nd nationally in PPA/rush allowed. They are 4th nationally in rushing explosiveness allowed.

The weather here should be a major factor. The forecast calls for steady rain and sustained winds of 19 mph with gusts to 34 mph during the game. That will make both teams more conservative with the play calling. A lot of moving clock in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Stanford was only able to put up 3 points against BYU and 10 points against SMU. Those defenses aren't better than the Miami defense. Miami is 15th in success rate allowed on defense. They are 6th in the nation in defensive line yards. They are 13th nationally in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed. 

Stanford's quarterback Ben Gulbranson is hobbled now, but is trying to play through the injury. I think this will be a tough game for him. 

Offensively, Miami is just 117th in offensive explosiveness. Stanford is 36th in PPA/rush allowed. the Cardinal have been very solid against the run in recent weeks.

The weather here should matter. A sustained wind of 23 mph and gusts to 30 mph here. This stadium is partially covered by a canopy for the seats, but the playing surface isn't covered. The wind will matter some. There are rain showers expected at times on Saturday evening too. This playing field is grass where the rain would matter more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns offense is just not working. They managed just 3.3 yards per play against Kentucky last week. Texas is 107th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Longhorns are just 66th in offensive explosiveness as well.

Mississippi State is 22nd in opponent QBR allowed. The secondary has been excellent. The Bulldogs are 90th nationally in YPC allowed, but they are 13th in rush explosiveness allowed.

Texas has had five games that stayed below this posted total. The Longhorns defense is top notch. They are 20th in PPA/pass allowed and 9th in PPA/rush allowed. They are 5th in the nation in explosiveness allowed.

Miss State is a fast paced team, but their offense has struggled against the better defenses they have faced. Texas will be the best defense they have played thus far. Miss State has played 3 of their 6 FBS opponents to a final score of 44 total points or lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars have drastically slowed their pace down. They rank as the second slowest paced team in the country in their last three games.

Toledo is very solid all around on defense, but the Rockets offense is very inconsistent. I've been super impressed by the Washington State defense and how they held down both Ole Miss and Virginia.

The weather in Pullman looks very poor for this game. A steady rainfall through the game and winds of 14 mph with gusts to 24 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Vanderbilt is easily first in the nation in points per opportunity- this team is cashing in bigtime on their scoring chances. Vandy 7th in rush success rate. Missouri 30th in rush success rate allowed. Vandy 7th in explosiveness in run game- Missouri 51st in rushing explosives allowed.

Missouri wants to run the football! Auburn made that very hard on them last week. Vandy is 26th in the nation in PPA/rush allowed. They are only 12th in the SEC in tackling grade at PFF though, and that concerns me some for the Vanderbilt defense with Ahmad Hardy coming at them early and often here. He’s first in the nation in yards after contact.

The two defenses are 74th and 70th in points per opportunity allowed. Vandy 1st on offense and Missouri 10th. Pace of the game will be slow, but I do think they can have success on offense in this game.

We're below a key number here, and I think Vanderbilt will push the scoring here and Missouri will do enough to get this one over the total.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas Jayhawks offense has been very good this year, and it has been excellent at home. Kansas put up more than 10 yards per play at home against Cincinnati. 

Kansas State is thought of as a defensive team, but this team isn't what they once were. The Wildcats are 66th nationally in yards per play allowed. They are also 92nd in explosiveness allowed. 

On the other side, Kansas has a very weak defense. The Jayhawks are 123rd in the nation in YPC allowed. They are 103rd in explosiveness allowed. 

Last year, these two teams put up 6.7 yards per play and 6.2 yards per play and got to 56 points. I think the defenses are worse this season.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Cleveland looks rough for this game. Sustained winds in the 20 mph area with gusts of 37 mph are possible during this game. We've seen how much the weather can change Cleveland Browns home games in the past, and this is another game where the weather could play a large factor.

Miami's offense isn't what it once was. The Dolphins certainly miss Tyreek Hill quite badly. The Dolphins running game has slipped in the last few games. 

Cleveland's offense is second to last in the NFL in yards per play. They are averaging just 4.1 yards per play. Now, they have to deal with the elements as well.

Dillon Gabriel isn't going to be asked to do very much in a spot like this. 

Both teams are likely to be very conservative with the play calling. I think the clock will keep running a lot here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears are middle of the pack in yards per play this year. The New Orleans Saints are 27th in the NFL in yards per play. Chicago is at the bottom of the NFL in yards per play allowed, while the Saints are up at 14th best. 

The weather here should play a large role in this game. The blend of 3 major forecasts calls for 21 mph sustained winds with a 40% chance of showers during this game. The wind gusts during this game are expected to be in the 35-40 mph range. 

Those are intense winds and we know the Chicago games have been hit hard by winds off the lake in the past. 

I don't think either ground game is good enough to move it up and down the field consistently in these conditions. They are 20th and 24th in the NFL in yards per carry. 

These conditions make explosive plays far less likely. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers are third in the nation in pace of play. Heupel's team is pushing the pace to the extreme as they always do. Tennessee is much worse defensively this year than they have been the last couple seasons, but they have a better and more balanced offense. The Tennessee ground game should find success here. Alabama is 104th in the nation in YPC allowed, and they are 125th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

Ty Simpson has been amazing the last few games for the Alabama offense. Tennessee is one of the worst secondaries in the SEC. They are 81st nationally in PPA/pass. I think the Crimson Tide have a big game through the air in this one. 

These two teams have both been tremendous in the red zone at converting those trips into touchdowns. Look for them to finish the drives in this game too.

This total has come down, and I disagree with the line move.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are 126th and 132nd in yards per play offensively. Akron had one good offensive game against Central Michigan, but in general they have been terrible. The Zips are 133rd in rushing explosiveness and 125th in yards per passing attempt. 

Ball State averaged 1.8 yards per play on offense last game against Western Michigan. They'll be better than that here against Akron, but the Cardinals have major offensive issues too. They are 131st in success rate on offense.

Neither of these defenses are very good overall, but they have both been pretty good in the red zone. The two offenses are terrible in the red zone as well.

As a potential bonus the long range weather calls for winds in the 20 mph range with a chance for a shower here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies are a solid under team. Northern Illinois is bottom 30 in plays per game. They definitely move at a slow pace. Northern Illinois is also 135th nationally in yards per play out of 136 teams. They are averaging an ugly 4.21 yards per play. Thomas Hammock's group is pretty good defensively though. They are 44th in PPA/pass allowed and 53rd in PPA/rush allowed. 

Ohio is a below average tempo team as well. The Bobcats are top ten nationally in rushing explosiveness thanks largely to Parker Navarro. Northern Illinois though is 34th nationally in rushing explosiveness allowed. Ohio is an above average MAC defense and that should be enough to stop Northern Illinois here.

These two teams are both top 16 in the nation in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd offense has been better than expected this year. Marshall's Carlos Del-Rio Wilson has 11 TD's and zero interceptions on the year. Marshall has scored 38 points or more in four straight games.

Texas State is 33rd in the nation in tempo. The Bobcats just allowed a very mediocre backup quarterback in Tucker Kilcrease from Troy to throw for 419 yards and 5 touchdowns. Texas State is 122nd in the nation in explosiveness allowed. Combine that with the fact that they are one of the worst red zone defenses in the country and you get a really poor defense that gives up a load of points. 

Texas State offensively is 32nd in yards per attempt on offense, and Marshall is 118th in yards per passing attempt allowed. The Bobcats offensive line has been good, and the Thundering Herd have relied on havoc to even slow down opposing offenses.

Two teams who are both in the bottom 15 in the country in explosiveness allowed. Three straight games of Marshall have gone to at least 70 total points.

Three of Texas State's games have finished with 79 points or more. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have a star quarterback in Czarka. He runs the triple option offense extremely well, and he is a much better passer than they have had in recent seasons. Air Force put up 603 yards of total offense against UNLV last week. Air Force is first in the nation in points per scoring opportunity. They are converting red zone trips into touchdowns. 

Defensively, Air Force is a complete mess. They have allowed a whopping 11 plays of 50 yards or more, and no one in the country is giving up more explosive plays. The Falcons just don't have enough speed on defense. Wyoming just had their best offensive showing last week against San Jose State, and this defense is even worse.

Wyoming is 100th in defensive line yards and 106th in yards per carry. Air Force will run all over Wyoming.

Air Force games have continually gone over the total, and most haven't even been close. I'll go to the high side again here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northwestern hosts Purdue in their temporary football stadium right on Lake Michigan here. The weather plays a large role here with this right on the lake. A chance of scattered rain showers and winds of about 12-15 mph are expected here. That should be enough to make a difference at this venue.

Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace. The Wildcats scored 42 points on both Western Illinois and ULM, two teams who were extremely overmatched in the trenches. Northwestern has struggled badly to score on most teams they have played this year.

Purdue has been improving, and they should have won at Minnesota last week. The Boilermakers defense held up well in that game against Minnesota. Purdue isn't a big play offense either.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls have one of the best defenses in the MAC. UMass has the worst offense in the country. UMass is 136th in yards per play and 130th in explosiveness on offense. They only scored 6 points and put up 3.3 yards per play on a terrible Kent State defense last week. 

UMass isn't good defensively, but they are much better on defense than offense. They are actually 14th best in the country in explosiveness allowed. They'll give up points, but it should at least take some time. Kent State only had 5.3 yards per play on them- it was turnovers and short fields that led to the points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma Sooners offense isn't the same with John Mateer at less than 100%. Now, they'll look better than they did last week because they don't have to face the Texas defense. Still, South Carolina is an above average defense.

Oklahoma is far less explosive with Mateer banged up. The Sooners were out of sorts last weekend. South Carolina's offense is a complete mess. The Gamecocks are 132nd in the nation in yards per carry. The offensive line is a glaring weakness, and this Oklahoma defensive front might be the best in the nation.

Sellers is a really good QB, but he is going to be in all kinds of bad spots in this game. Oklahoma is 1st in defensive success rate allowed against the run. They are first against the pass as well. The Sooners are second in the nation in havoc. They are second in points per opportunity allowed also. South Carolina has been awful in the red zone. The Gamecocks are 130th in points per scoring opportunity.

Defensively, both of these teams are in the top 11 in red zone TD percentage allowed.

South Carolina hasn't had a game finish higher than 49 points all year. They have had three games finish at 38 points or less. Oklahoma's highest scoring game this year was 45 points. The Sooners have had four games finish at 41 points or fewer. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays had one of the top two or three offenses in baseball this season. Toronto has a bunch of power in the lineup, and they woke up in a big way on Wednesday. George Springer had an excellent season starting things out right for the Jays at the top of the order. He had 3 hits on Wednesday. Vlad Guerrero Jr. went 4 for 4 with a walk on Wednesday. 

Seattle's lineup is better than average, and they have a lot of home run power also. Max Scherzer starts in this one, and Scherzer has allowed at least 4 runs in five of his last six starts. Scherzer hasn't thrown since September 24th, so he is way off his normal schedule. Scherzer was once a dominant starter, but at 41 years old he is far from what he was 5 years ago. 

Luis Castillo has pitched well in recent outings, but he faced a lot of weak lineups during those starts. This is a stacked Toronto lineup.

Hudson is the home plate umpire and he is a hitter friendly umpire. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The LA Rams defense is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Baltimore's offense looked terrible with Cooper Rush under center last week. It is such a drop off from Jackson, and the offense has to look completely different without a running quarterback as a major threat.

The Baltimore defense has played poorly this year, but I think they'll show some pride after being embarrassed a week ago.

The weather should play a major role in this one. The weather forecast calls for steady rain from the NorEaster on Sunday afternoon. The wind should be the biggest factor though. Sustained winds of about 18 mph with gusts as high as 37 mph are in the forecast here. That kind of weather makes the play calling far more conservative and it helps the under a great deal.

Take the under here. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* My numbers support a larger play on the under in this one. LSU has played four games against FBS schools and none of those games have topped 43 points (that one was Ole Miss). Recent South Carolina games have been higher scoring than they should have been due to fluke defensive/special teams plays to score or have consistently short fields.

LSU hasn't scored more than 23 points in a game against an FBS opponent all season long. The Tigers offense just hasn't been any good. The defense is leading the way with their excellent pass rush.

Sellers is a star for the Gamecocks, but the offensive line in front of him is a mess. The LSU pass rush is the strength of the team. There should be a bunch of big negative plays for South Carolina and they'll be behind the sticks a lot.

Take the under. Top Rated play. 

*4 Star Play Over* This USC offense is extremely tough to slow down. They have two weeks to get ready for this game. The Michigan pass defense is only mediocre. They rank 45th in QBR allowed so far this year. USC should be able to hit explosives and finish in the red zone here. The Trojans have the balance that allows them to finish drives at a very high rate. 

The USC defense is talented, but they are still really inconsistent. I've overall liked what I've seen from Underwood. I think they have success here against a USC secondary that is an ugly 102nd in QBR allowed this year. Michigan State was able to move the ball quite a bit against USC, and I think the Wolverines can here too.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos have played two MAC games. The score against Toledo was 14-13. The score against UMass was 21-3. I think Western Michigan based on their style of play and improved defense will have a lot of low scoring games in the MAC this year. Western Michigan is 57th in YPC allowed and they are 11th in PPA/Pass so far this season.

Ball State is coming off a shocking win over Ohio. The Cardinals are playing at a very slow pace on offense. The Cardinals did a good job slowing down the Bobcats offense last week, and they have made some improvements on defense.

Not very many possessions in this one- take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons best offensive player is Demond Claiborne. He's banged up and is likely to play but at less than 100 percent here. If he is banged up it really hurts this teams explosiveness. Ashford is probable to play here too but has been banged up quite a bit this year.

Oregon State has been unable to run the football on anyone this year. They are 128th in YPC and 133rd in rushing explosiveness. The Wake Forest defense is 5th in the nation in yards per attempt allowed in the passing game. Wake Forest is also 10th in stuff rate defensively. Wake Forest has been sneaky good on defense.

Oregon State's defense has played much better at home than on the road. They have a very good home field advantage. Oregon State is much better against the run than the pass.

I like that this could be a more conservative game with the better run defenses. The weather here calls for rain showers and winds of about 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have played four games against FBS competition this year. The combined total scores in those games have been: 79 points, 86 points, 79 points, and 65 points. 

Air Force is dead last by a mile in yards per play allowed this season at 7.71 yards per play allowed. The Falcons allowed 44 points against a Hawaii team that has badly struggled to find a rhythm on offense the rest of the season. 

Air Force is wasting some very good output on offense from quarterback Liam Szarka. They have been explosive in both the passing and running game. UNLV has been very weak against the run, and I think Air Force will hit them with a lot of big gainers on the ground here. UNLV is allowing 5.15 yards per carry on the season.

The Air Force defense is 136th out of 136 teams in the country in explosiveness allowed, and UNLV has big play potential with Thomas on the ground and Colandrea and company through the air. 

UNLV's defense has shown the ability to give up a lot. They allowed 38 points to Miami (OH) and 31 points against FCS Idaho State.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Penn State is coming off an absolutely stunning outright loss at UCLA. No one saw that one coming. Now, the Nittany Lions come into this one on a two game losing streak.

How will Penn State respond? I expect to see the defense look a whole lot better this week. Northwestern is terrible offensively. The Wildcats have looked good against an FCS foe and a far overmatched Sun Belt opponent, but against the bigger teams they have played Northwestern has done nothing on offense. The Wildcats are also bottom ten in the country in tempo.

Northwestern is a feisty defense, and the Penn State offense isn't explosive at all right now. Penn State is 122nd in the nation in offensive explosiveness. The Nittany Lions are 91st in the nation in PPA/pass. Drew Allar has played very poorly all season long.

The under is 27-15 in James Franklin's 42 games at Penn State as a home favorite. The under is 20-8 as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Mark Wegner has consistently had one of the lowest strikeout/walk ratios in all of baseball. He is one of the most hitter friendly umpires you'll ever find. He is behind home plate for this key game between the Phillies and Dodgers.

Cristopher Sanchez is an excellent starter, but the Dodgers offense has heated up nicely of late. Tyler Glasnow has excellent stuff, but I don't think he goes more than five innings or so in this spot, and that means a lot of the Dodgers bullpen which has been weak all season long.

Dodger Stadium ranked as the fourth most hitter friendly park in baseball this year. The ball carries well here during the daytime and this is a 3:08 local time contest. 

These are two really good offenses with a low total and two worn out bullpens. A really big bonus of an over umpire too.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames have disappointed all year, especially on the offensive end. Ethan Vasko will probably be back here, but he hasn't played well. Liberty is up against a UTEP defense that is 24th in havoc created. Liberty is 105th in pass blocking grade. UTEP should get in the backfield quite a bit here.

UTEP is 134th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Miners have gone between Nelson and Locklear, but both have been bad at QB. 

The weather here calls for sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 27 mph. That should make the game more conservative and it is overall very helpful for an under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jesus Luzardo has shown the ability to get rattled and completely lose command. The Dodgers lineup is arguably the best lineup in baseball, and they are finally like it here lately. They have consistently put up really good offensive numbers in the last 6-8 games. Betts has woken up and that makes it a lot tougher for the opposing starter. 

The Philadelphia Phillies averaged 5.30 runs per game at home this year. This is a hitter friendly park, especially with the weather we see here today. A warm temperature in the mid 70's in October and a slight wind blowing out at about 7 mph here.

Blake Snell is a strong starter,  but the Dodgers bullpen is still a big weakness. The Phillies bullpen has been shaky of late too.

Adrian Johnson is behind home plate, and he is a very hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts are first in the NFL in yards per play. I don't think that will change after they face a weak Las Vegas defense this weekend. The Raiders are 23rd in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed. The Raiders are also below average in yards per play allowed at 21st in the NFL.

The Las Vegas offense has been inconsistent this year, but in the dome on the fast track I like their chances of moving the ball well here. Jeanty got going last week, and that should help the offense a lot. Indianapolis is just 20th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Colts are allowing 4.5 yards per carry on the season.

Early season games in a dome have trended strongly toward the over in the last ten years in the NFL.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles have been fortunate to win all 4 of their games. The Eagles are 30th in the NFL in yards per play at 4.2 yards per play. Philadelphia has been a mess on offense, and now they are going up against a top five defense in the NFL. The Broncos should be able to generate pressure and create some negative plays. The Eagles have had less big plays this year, and the offensive line is banged up right now.

The Denver offense looking good against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals doesn't change my opinion of them. Denver isn't bad offensively, but against the top defenses in the NFL I think Nix will often struggle. The Eagles defense is still a top six or eight unit in the NFL. 

This line has moved up enough here that I'm comfortable going to the low side. The Eagles are second slowest in the NFL in tempo. I think the defenses have the edge here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have struggled badly on offense this year. They only scored 19 on a bad Oklahoma State defense. They only put up 14 and 4.6 yards per play against a Tulane defense that is only ok. Tulsa only scored 14 points and had 4.9 yards per play against a lowly New Mexico State defense.

Tulsa is better at running the football than throwing the football, but the strength of the Memphis defense is stuffing the run. Baylor Hayes has struggled badly throwing the ball when blitzed, and Memphis brings a bunch of blitzes. 

The Memphis offense is bottom 30 in the country in tempo. They are also top 20 in the country in rush rate, so they like to run the football. Tulsa is 30th in explosiveness allowed. This isn't a great Tulsa defense, but they are much improved from a year ago.

Tulsa is 128th in stuff rate allowed when running this year, and Memphis is 11th in stuff rate on defense. The Golden Hurricane should play from behind the sticks here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Heavy winds in Lincoln should change this game. The average of three forecasts here calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts to 28 mph during this game. 

Michigan State's front seven is pretty strong. Nebraska is a pass heavy team that really struggles running the ball. If it is this windy here in this game, I think it slows the Nebraska offense quite a bit. Nebraska is 133rd in rushing explosiveness. 

Michigan State is 128th in stuff rate allowed on offense. The Spartans offensive line has struggled all season. They are just 93rd in rushing explosiveness too.

Teams who are lacking explosives with very slow pace (126th and 77th tempo wise) with this kind of wind. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Last year's meeting between these two teams saw major fireworks as the teams went back and forth, and I think this will be another high scoring contest.

Vanderbilt just won 55-35 against Utah State. They beat Georgia State 70-21. Diego Pavia and this offense are humming along amazingly. They are first nationally in PPA/Pass attempt. The Alabama defense is just 63rd in PPA/Pass attempt allowed. Vandy is 1st in pass downs PPA and Alabama is 98th in passing downs PPA allowed.

Alabama's Ty Simpson is starting to look really comfortable at quarterback. He has some great skill position talent around him too. The Vanderbilt defense struggled against Utah State and they really have yet to be tested by a good offense. They'll be tested here in a big way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense is becoming a juggernaut. Notre Dame is getting great play from CJ Carr at quarterback. The wide receivers have stepped up their game quite a bit. The running game might be the best in the country with Love and Price. Notre Dame is 13th in the nation in yards per play. They are 2nd in pass success rate. They are 23rd in rush success rate. They are 17th in explosiveness on offense. What is Boise State defensively in explosiveness allowed? The Broncos are 136th (dead last) nationally. 

Notre Dame's defense is way down this year. The Fighting Irish are 99th in yards per play allowed. They are 112th in havoc created. Boise State is 18th nationally in yards per play. They have a very strong offensive line and a good QB in Madsen.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips are a really bad team. Akron has almost nothing going for them. The one relative strength they have as a team is their ability to slow down the run. They are 34th in PPA/rush allowed and 42nd in rushing explosiveness allowed. Central Michigan is all about the run. They are running the ball on more than 66% of their offensive snaps. Matt Drinkall is going to run the football early and often here with the Chippewas. 

Central Michigan is 111th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. They haven't been a big play offense. They usually very methodically move the ball down the field. Central Michigan has been one of the worst red zone offenses in the country too.

The Chippewas defense has been beaten by good passing teams, but Akron is 134th in passing downs success rate. Akron is 131st in yards per attempt in the passing game too.

This projects as a sloppy low scoring contest. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators have seen their last three games finish at 34 points, 30 points, and 33 points. Now, Florida must take on a Texas team that clearly has a top two or three defense in the country. 

Texas is first nationally in explosiveness allowed. You aren't going to beat them with big plays. They are also elite in red zone defense. Texas is 5th in the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed. They are 4th in the country in yards per rush attempt allowed. The Longhorns defensive front will be too good for the Florida offensive line.

The Florida defense has been very good this season. Florida is 29th in success rate allowed. They are 22nd in explosiveness allowed. 

The Texas offense has sputtered under Arch Manning. Manning has been good for a great throw once in a while, but the passing game overall has been very weak even against poor competition. Texas is 119th in PPA/pass attempt despite playing teams like UTEP, San Jose State, and Sam Houston.

Florida's offense has struggled badly under Lagway all season. They have been bottled up by far worse defenses than this Texas unit.

Both teams are bottom 10 in the country in explosiveness on offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These teams are 136th and 134th in yards per play offensively. There are only 136 teams in FBS. Both teams have been a real mess on offense all season. 

Western Michigan is a solid 56th in yards per play allowed on defense. Western Michigan is 22nd in explosiveness allowed, so they don't give up big plays. UMass should really struggle to score here.

Western Michigan is a run heavy team that plays at a slow pace whenever they aren't far behind in a game. The Broncos should run the ball consistently here. Defensively, UMass isn't good, but they are a decent 71st in explosiveness allowed. 

I expect a sloppy game where both teams look bad on the offensive end. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers are 56th quickest in tempo in the country. Army isn't as slow as they have normally been, they come in at 94th out of 136 teams. 

UAB's Jalen Kitna is a pretty good quarterback who I consider an over type quarterback. He'll take chances and it could lead to big plays for the offense or even a pick 6 for the defense. UAB is 15th in the nation in pass explosiveness. Army is 125th in pass explosiveness allowed. Army has struggled to slow down the deep passing game. UAB is 28th in the nation in PPA/pass, and Army is just 104th in PPA/Pass allowed. UAB has a path to scoring quite a few points here. UAB put up 24 points and 6.9 YPP against a Navy defense that is better than this Army unit. 

Army should have success offensively here. UAB is 135th in rush success rate allowed. They are 134th in defensive line yards. Army has some ability to throw it this year and UAB is dead last in the nation in PPA/pass allowed. 

Both defenses have been really weak in the red zone, and I think both teams can score touchdowns when they have opportunities in the red zone.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pitt Panthers are a matchup specific defense. Pitt is great against the run with their stout defensive line. The Panthers can struggle though against teams who are pass heavy. The Panthers secondary is prone to giving up big plays. 

Boston College is 4th in the country in pass rate, so they are throwing it around a lot. Lonergan has been a pretty good quarterback for them, and I think he can have success here against this Pitt defense. Boston College is 33rd in QBR offensively, while Pitt is 85th in QBR allowed. Pitt has also struggled to keep teams out of the end zone once they enter the red zone.

Pitt's offense is fast paced (14th in the nation) and they like to throw it around too. They are 17th in pass rate nationally. Eli Holstein has been inconsistent this year,  but the Boston College defense is subpar. Boston College is 67th in PPA/pass, and they haven't seen many good passing attacks this year either.

Both teams throwing it around and both teams top 40 in the country in tempo.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Colorado State with MASSIVE problems. Against a Washington State defense that isn’t very good, they just scored a grand total of 3 points. Col State put up 16 against a bad UTSA team. They scored 21 points against Northern Colorado who is a weak FCS team. The Rams lack playmakers on offense.

SD State now 112th in pace of play. Sean Lewis knows the strength of his team is the defense. Offensively, Jayden Denegal has been disappointing for the Aztecs. They don't have much of a downfield passing attack.

San Diego State shutout a decent Cal offense with JKS two weeks ago. They allowed 3 against N Illinois last week. Fields is an excellent edger rusher and Chambliss is a top notch linebacker.

I waited this one out for the slight move upward that I expect on low totals. It came, and now I'm backing the under.

Take the under here.

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears are dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Now, the Bears are without a star cornerback in Jaylon Johnson, and that hurts them a ton. The Bears lack a pass rush as well. I think Geno Smith can do some work against this Bears secondary in the dome on the fast track.

Chicago is top ten in the NFL in yards per play. They have a new offensive minded coach. They brought in some excellent new weapons for Caleb Williams. Both Loveland and Burden are really good adds. Odunze is becoming a star at the wide receiver spot as well. The Raiders were just torched for 41 points by the Commanders without Jayden Daniels.

I think we'll see a lot of big plays both ways in a tight game where the offenses have the advantage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Giants will start Jaxson Dart in this game. Dart is up against a really good defense in the Chargers here. This is very tough ask of him right away. I expect the Giants to run the football more and play it more cautious than normal. The offensive line in front of Dart is clearly a bad one.

The Giants have been an under machine at home, especially as a home underdog. As a home underdog of 6.5 points or less the under is a whopping 21-3 in the last 24 contests. Here is another game that fits this system.

The Chargers are content to play at a slow pace and if they have control of the game they run the football quite a bit. The Giants front seven on defense is very strong and I think they can get some pressure on Herbert here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The last four times these two teams have played the combined total has finished at 38 points or less. 

Kentucky's offensive numbers are propped up by rolling up a big number on the lowly Eastern Michigan Eagles defense. Eastern Michigan is a bottom three defense in the country. Kentucky had just 4.6 YPP on offense against Toledo. The Wildcats passing game is very weak. They are reliant on running the football. South Carolina is 34th in rushing PPA allowed. They are 23rd in preventing explosive rushing plays. Kentucky will have to slowly work the ball down the field on the ground. 

South Carolina's offense has struggled overall this season. Sellers is a superstar, but the offensive line is very weak. The Gamecocks are 130th in offensive success rate. They are 130th in red zone TD percentage too, so they are struggling to finish drives. 

It is supposed to rain earlier in the day, and there are possible showers at times during the game. This is a grass field and the footing could be worse than normal here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Matt Campbell has been an under coach. The under is 87-62 in his games as a head coach. When the total is 48 or higher- the under is 61% in Campbell’s teams games!

Arizona is just 122nd in offensive success rate. They are 6th in defensive success rate. Iowa State 55th in offensive success rate. 36th in defensive success rate.

Arizona hasn’t played good defenses, and yet the Wildcats have still really struggled to get anything going on offense. They haven’t found an identity yet. I don't think they'll get much going in this game.

On the other side, I love Gonzales the DC for Arizona, and I think he can scheme up something solid here to slow down Rocco Beccht and company.

Matt Campbell in a game with a total above 48 and an opponent with an improving defense

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles rank 22nd in the country in plays per minute so they are moving very quickly pace wise. Jacksonville State is 44th, which is above average as well.

Southern Miss is 51st in pass play success rate on offense, and Jacksonville State is 101st in pass play success rate allowed. The Gamecocks secondary is their biggest weakness. I expect Braylon Braxton and company to be able to exploit that weakness. Southern Miss is 38th in pass play explosiveness, and Jacksonville State is 101st in passing play explosiveness allowed. 

Jacksonville State's offense is all about the running game with Cam Cook. Cook is putting up some really impressive numbers this season. Wimsatt at QB is a good runner as well. I think Cook will have a big game here. Southern Miss is 108th in PPA/rush and 109th in rushing play explosiveness allowed. Jacksonville State is 14th in the nation in PPA/rush offensively and they are 23rd in rushing play explosiveness. Southern Miss is good in the secondary, but I think they'll be ran on here.

Two fast paced teams with the offenses strengths being the opposing defenses weakness here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats once again have a strong defense, but an offense that is very questionable. 

Northwestern under David Braun has been very good at turning games into rock fights and winning or being competitive thanks to their ability to not give up big plays and play well on special teams. 

Oregon only had 373 yards of offense against Northwestern, and that Oregon offense is elite. Northwestern only allowed 23 points against Tulane despite turning the ball over five times.

UCLA is seriously lacking in explosiveness, and the UCLA offensive line is a big weakness. I don't think the coaching change is going to make the offense better quickly.

This field is right by the lake, and any wind can cause major issues. The current forecast looks like there could be a bit of wind to contend with in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen and Rice Owls don't have exactly the same type of offenses, but they definitely share quite a few similarities. 

Navy is a much more explosive offense with the ability to throw the ball down the field at times. Rice has to run it to be successful. The Owls severely lack playmakers on the offensive end. 

Rice beat Navy 24-10 last year. I think Navy will be ready to play in this one. The Navy defense is 22nd in rushing success rate allowed. Rice runs it the third most of any team in the country, just behind Navy who is second most run heavy in the country. Rice has no passing game. In four games, they only have 11 passing plays of 10 yards or more. Rice is second to last in the nation in offensive explosiveness. 

Navy will run it early and often, and Rice is 16th in rushing play success rate allowed. I do expect Navy to move the ball here, but I think it will be long slow drives.

Both teams rank in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo. Two top three teams in terms of rush rate and bottom ten in terms of tempo means a lot of running the clock. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes have an elite running game. The Dukes have three good runners, and I sincerely doubt that Georgia Southern can stop them or even slow them down here. Georgia Southern ranks dead last in run defense grade at PFF at #136 in the nation. 

Georgia Southern prefers to throw the football, and I think with their tempo and receiving option they can do at least some damage against the James Madison defense. 

The Georgia Southern defense is significantly worse than they were a year ago, and James Madison is far better offensively now than they were when they played GA Southern last season.

I think James Madison puts up a pretty big number and this one goes over the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils aren't the same team they were a year ago. Duke's secondary is shorthanded right now, and their best cornerback from last year is in the NFL. Teams have been able to throw it all over the Blue Devils.

Duke gave up 535 yards in their win against NC State. Duke allowed 6.8 yards per play against Tulane as well.

Syracuse has rolled up at least 433 yards of offense in three straight games. Angeli has played well, but will miss the game with an injury. Rickie Collins had initially won the job and the LSU transfer should be good enough to put up points here on this weak Duke defense.

The Syracuse defense gave up more than 500 yards against Clemson, and Tennessee put up 7.3 yards per play against them.

These two teams both rank in the top ten in the country in tempo. A bunch of possessions and on the fast track at Syracuse. I think this one gets high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame defense has regressed significantly under Chris Ash, who appears to be a large downgrade from Golden at defensive coordinator. Notre Dame is bottom five in the country in havoc created, and they just gave up 30 points to a bad Purdue offense. They also allowed 7.1 yards per play against Texas A&M. 

Fortunately for Notre Dame, their offense is hitting its stride. The Fighting Irish rolled up 56 points against Purdue. They put up 40 on Texas A&M. This is an explosive running game, and Arkansas just gave up 290 yards rushing to Memphis. 

Taylen Green should have a big day here. He is an explosive guy who can do it with his legs or through the air. Notre Dame appears very vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks. 

A lot of big plays both ways here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Janson Junk consistently gives up about 3 runs in 5 or 6 innings. He is a mediocre starting pitcher. He's going up against a red hot Phillies lineup. Philadelphia is hitting the ball as well as any team in baseball. They are having very high scoring games of late. In fact, 12 of the Phillies last 14 games have gone above this posted total. 

Walker Buehler is coming off a couple better starts, but the totality of his work is very poor this season. The Miami Marlins offense has been on fire in recent games as well. Miami's young lineup is really producing in a big way late in the season.

The wind is blowing out here and there is some rain in the forecast. The middle relief for both teams is questionable if there is a rain delay.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals start Stephen Kolek here. Kolek has a 1.67 ERA and a 2.07 FIP in his last four starts. Kolek has 3 walks/19 strikeouts in those outings and he has allowed 0 home runs. He does a good job inducing soft contact.

Yusei Kikuchi is an up and down pitcher, but his numbers are much better at home. Kikuchi has absolutely dominated this Royals lineup too. Kansas City's lineup has a .192 weighted on base average in 61 plate appearances against him. 

Zach Neto is a key guy at the top of the order for the Angels, and he is out for the season. The Angels bottom of the order is one of the worst in the majors.

Kansas City has been very poor against lefties this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The USC Trojans are first in the nation in yards per play at 9.64 yards per play. Cincinnati is second, but they are back at 8.38 yards per play. The Trojans have been terrific all season. They started a bit slowly on the road at Purdue, but the offense got it going later in the game.

Jayden Maiava is a good decision maker who has taken that next step forward with Lincoln Riley helping him along. Riley's system is obviously great for the quarterback. USC has great team speed at the skill positions on offense too. This is an explosive offense that should really test a Michigan State secondary which I view as a relative weakness. Michigan State's DLine is strong, but I think USC can beat them through the air.

Michigan State's offense has looked much improved the last couple games. Aiden Chiles does have a high upside, and USC gave up 5.3 YPP to Purdue and 20 points to GA Southern.

With this below key numbers of 55 and 56 I'm taking the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners offense is working very well. UTSA has scored 24 points (against Tex A&M), 36 points against Texas State, and 49 points against Incarnate Word. The UTSA defense is clearly well down from a year ago though. UTSA has allowed 42 points, 43 points, and 20 points in those three games. UTSA went from being a very good defense, to being 113th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Colorado State has a pretty good quarterback in Fowler-Nicolosi. The Rams are in the top 25 in passing play percentage in the country. The UTSA secondary is a clear weakness. 

UTSA is throwing the ball on 54.1% of their offensive plays too. The Colorado State secondary is inexperienced and I think they can be beaten.

Colorado State has sped up their tempo this season (10th so far in pace). UTSA gets involved in a lot of shootouts.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils defense is clearly not the same without Josh Pickett (star cornerback now in the NFL) and Terry Moore (injured safety). Duke's star defensive end Sabastian Harsh will miss the first half of this game too due to a targeting suspension. Duke is 122nd in the nation in passing PPA allowed. They are also 126th in explosiveness allowed. Duke's secondary is letting them down badly. Now, they have to be without their superstar pass rusher for a half as well. 

C.J. Bailey and the NC State offense have been good this year. Smothers gives them an excellent RB. The wide receivers are solid as well. Bailey has a stellar 86.5 PFF grade, which is one of the best in the country. He only has one turnover worthy play all season thus far. NC State should have offensive success.

The NC State defense has regressed pretty badly. They are missing their star defensive coordinator (Gibson) from last year. NC State is 97th nationally in overall PPA allowed. Duke is 7th in the nation in tempo. With Mensah they are playing very quickly and moving the ball well. 

Duke is 38th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. NC State is a terrible 132nd in the country in explosiveness allowed.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I've been very impressed with the Oklahoma defense so far this year. Michigan tore through Central Michigan like they were nothing last week, but they had a very hard time finding any room against Oklahoma. I know Temple isn't a really good offense by any means, but Oklahoma holding them to 1.9 yards per play and 3 points last week was great work.

Auburn is running the ball on more than 60% of their offensive snaps so far this season. Oklahoma's defense is elite at stuffing the run. The Tigers offensive line can usually dominate, but I think they will struggle to run it against Oklahoma.

The Auburn defense has been solid this year. Oklahoma's offense has been inconsistent, and I don't think they'll put up a big number here.

Jackson Arnold is back to play his old team, and emotions will be high here. I expect to see a spirited battle between two good defenses and two teams who want to run the football. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans lost star quarterback Goose Crowder to an injury last week. Troy then could not move the football at all with Tucker Kilcrease under center. Kilcrease has a long term PFF of about 50 (very bad) from playing last year and this year. Troy loses all explosiveness on offense without Crowder in the game. Troy scored zero points on offense last week against a Memphis defense that is just middle of the road.

Buffalo played poorly last week, and the Bulls defensive effort was disappointing. I still believe this Buffalo front seven is one of the best in the MAC and a very good G5 level unit. Troy will try to run the football here, and I don't think they'll have much success.

The Troy defense is a very good unit. Clemson only gained 316 yards against them. Troy's strength is in the front seven on defense as well. Buffalo has a good running game, but Roberson hasn't looked very trustworthy throwing the football.

A lot of running the football, and not very many explosive plays.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The TCU Horned Frogs passing attack is elite with Josh Hoover at the helm. This is a really tough matchup for the SMU pass defense. SMU allowed 601 yards to Baylor earlier this year. TCU should roll up a big number here too. In their other two games, SMU has faced overmatched opponents in E Texas A&M and Missouri State.

SMU's offensive line is a strength, and it should give Jennings time to throw here. TCU is 120th in passing PPA allowed. The Horned Frogs allowed 453 yards and 6.0 yards per play to Abilene Christian last weekend. 

TCU has put up 7.5 and 8.2 yards per play on offense in their two games this season. They are 39th in passing play frequency despite having huge leads in both games. They want to throw it around. The SMU secondary is their weakness.

In the last five meetings between these two teams, four of the games have been 76 points or higher. Last year, the final was 66-42.

A ton of pace in this one. Back and forth. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have become a completely different team last year and this year than they were earlier in Greg Schiano's time as a head coach. Rutgers has a better offense than they did, but their defense (and especially their run defense) has dropped off in a big way.

Rutgers cannot stop the run anymore. The Scarlet Knights are allowing 5.58 yards per carry on the season thus far. They even allowed 4.74 yards per carry against Norfolk State last week. Miami (OH) couldn't do anything offensively against Wisconsin, but Miami put up 8.4 yards per play against Rutgers. 

Rutgers is a solid 48th in the country in yards per play. Rutgers has scored 34 points, 45 points, and 60 points in their 3 games this season.

Iowa always has a good defense, and they do once again. However, they have had two non tests in UMass and Albany. Iowa State's offense is decent, but not spectacular. 

Iowa's offense isn't prolific by any means, but they are improved from the last few seasons. Gronowski can run it and he is clearly an upgrade over anyone Iowa has had at quarterback in the last 3 or 4 years. The Hawkeyes have played a bit faster as well. Instead of a bottom 10 tempo team, they have played at an average tempo.

Rutgers has seen 11 straight games go over this posted total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days, and it isn't very close. The Guardians bullpen has been great though. They are first in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days. 

The Guardians had seen 10 of their last 11 games stay under this total before last night's extra innings contest. 

Gavin Williams is throwing the ball well right now, and the Tigers have a terrible .225 wOBA against Williams in 77 plate appearances. 

Jack Flaherty has been up and down this year, but he has great numbers against Cleveland. He has allowed only a .239 wOBA in 89 plate appearances against the Guardians. He has pitched into some bad luck of late, with a FIP that is much lower than his ERA in the past couple months.

A slight wind blowing in here helps too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Pirates start Paul Skenes here. Skenes hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. He has a 1.74 ERA in his last 10 starts. Skenes continues to have excellent control and his swinging strike rate is extremely high. He has been very good against this Cubs lineup, and I don't see any reason to expect that to change here.

Cade Horton has a 0.84 ERA in his last 10 starts. Horton has allowed 0 runs in 6 of those 10 starts. He's up against a Pirates lineup that is one of the two or three worst lineups in baseball.

The slight wind that there is in this game is blowing in from left field.

I think this has the makings of a great pitching duel between two elite young starting pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mitchell Parker has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors for quite some time now. Parker has a 7.94 ERA and a 6.57 FIP in his last eight starts. Parker is giving up 2.5 home runs per nine innings during that time. In Parker's last 16 starts, 12 of them have gone over this total of 9 runs. 

The Atlanta Braves start Spencer Strider. Strider hasn't been looking like his old self. He's walking way too many guys, and the swinging strike rate is down. Strider has a very poor history against the Nationals as well. This Nationals lineup has a .438 weighted on base average against Strider, and he is definitely throwing it worse this year than it he has in his career on the whole.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos have arguably the best defense in the NFL. I know the Titans aren't world beaters on offense, but Denver held them to a miniscule 2.4 yards per play this past weekend. The Broncos secondary is an elite unit, and the rest of the defense is very good as well.

The Indianapolis Colts defense looked great in shutting down the Dolphins on Sunday. Miami had just 211 total yards of offense. The Dolphins have plenty of offensive weapons too. 

The Colts shouldn't be too explosive on offense with Daniel Jones at quarterback. I would expect the Broncos to game plan for shutting down the run here and rely on their great secondary. 

Bo Nix and the Broncos offense is inconsistent. They don't have elite skill position talent all around either.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams met in December 2024 and the final was 36-30 in OT. That game had a posted total of 47. This line shouldn't be set so much lower because of one low scoring week.

In the NFL in the past decade, games in week two between two teams who both saw their week one games go under the total- those games have been very good over bets in week two. Both of these teams saw their first game go well under the total.

In a dome on a fast track, this is an ultra low total. The Panthers have a bottom 3 or 4 defense in the NFL. The Cardinals defense is middle of the pack. 

I think Arizona's offense can put up a big number here. Murray and his wide receivers should have a bigger game here.

Carolina should be able to do enough. The Panthers have been good at scoring late in the game when down in the last couple seasons.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans defense played very well against the Broncos last week. The Broncos busted one big run, but even with that they only had 4.5 yards per play. The Titans tackled well and gave Bo Nix quite a bit of trouble.

On the offensive end, the Titans were dreadful. Yes, the Broncos have a very good defense. Still, the Titans averaged just 2.4 yards per play and picked up only 7 first downs. 

The Rams defensive line is a strength, and the Titans offensive line is a big problem. Latham is injured here and may not play. The Titans don't have depth on the offensive front. 

Despite trailing through the game, the Titans played at a slow pace last week. The Rams typically play relatively slow as well.

Matt Stafford still isn't completely healthy, and the Rams offensive line isn't particularly strong either.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow square off just as they did in the college football title game in 2020. 

Burrow and the Bengals offense played poorly in week one in Cleveland. They were fortunate to get out of Cleveland with a win. I expect much better from the Bengals offense in week two. The Jaguars defense is definitely worse than the Browns defense. The defensive front from the Jags isn't likely to get in the backfield as often as Myles Garrett and the Browns.

Liam Coen is a great offensive mind, and I expect him to do a really good job with the Jacksonville offense. I know they looked better in week one, but the Bengals defense was terrible a year ago and they didn't make many changes (other than DC). They also looked very poor in the preseason. 

I think both Lawrence and Burrow have a good game here. Both teams saw their week one game go under the total, and in the past that has made for a good week two over. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams have both played at a very slow tempo so far this year. LSU ranks bottom 20 in the country in pace of play. Florida ranks in the bottom ten in the country in pace of play.

The LSU defense is taking a huge step forward with Blake Baker as defensive coordinator. LSU completely shut down Clemson and then took care of business defensively against LA Tech. They have allowed only 207.5 yards per game through the first two. 

Florida only allowed 18 points against USF. It was the offense that let them down in that contest.

Both Florida and LSU have done a great job preventing explosive plays. They have both allowed only one play of 30 yards or more.

Both offenses have just 3 plays of 30 yards or more.

A lack of explosives and a slow pace.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Southern Eagles have a terrible defense. They allowed 59 points to USC (12.0 yards per play) and 42 points against Fresno State (527 total yards). 

Jacksonville State has gotten really good production out of the running game with Cam Cook. The biggest weakness of this Georgia Southern defense is their interior defensive line. They will be gashed by many good rushing attacks this year. I think the Gamecocks will run for a big number here.

Georgia Southern has played two good secondaries so far, but Jacksonville State is very weak in pass coverage. Georgia Southern wants to play fast and throw it around. Here is the type of defense they want to go up against. I think the Eagles pass happy attack will look far better in this game than it did in the first two contests.

A quick pace and the offenses with the advantages.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida Atlantic Owls are playing at the fastest pace of any team in the country. Florida Atlantic turned the ball constantly in Maryland territory in their first game. They did move the ball. Last week against Florida A&M, the Owls rolled up 553 yards and 360 passing yards. 

FIU only had 4.0 yards per play last week, but that was against an excellent Penn State defense that will shut down a lot of offenses this season. Florida Atlantic is one of the worst defenses in the country, and I think FIU will find moving the football far easier here.

The pace here should be quick and I don't think the FIU secondary will be good enough to slow Veltkamp and the offense all game. On the other side, FIU should break some explosive runs on the Owls weak front seven. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs play at a top 25 tempo in the country. The Missouri State defense is likely to be a bottom 10 or 15 defense in the country this season. The Bears are undersized on the defensive front, and SMU is likely to have their way on offense. Kevin Jennings is expected to play here and the SMU backup quarterbacks are solid if Jennings is pulled early. Missouri State allowed 73 points against USC in week one. 

Missouri State isn't bad offensively though. The Bears have a very good quarterback in Jacob Clark. Clark can throw it around, and SMU's secondary is a relative weakness right now.

The temperature is expected to be 91 degrees in this one. In college football- hot weather overs have been very profitable in the long run. The defenses tend to wear down and the tackling gets worse later in the game.

The pace should be quick here, and I like SMU to put up a big number. I think Missouri State scores enough with Clark doing some work here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls have played two terrible defenses in UMass and Howard. Temple has moved the ball well in those games, but I really doubt they'll have much success moving the ball in this one.

Oklahoma's defensive front is elite. The Sooners won't be run on by many teams this year. Oklahoma can be thrown on at times, but this Temple offense is heavily run based. Temple is 124th out of 136 in the country in terms of tempo. The Owls want to slow the game down as much as possible. Coach Keeler's teams have done that in the past, especially when they are clearly at a talent disadvantage. 

Oklahoma is in a letdown spot here after a big win over Michigan. The number here has moved heavily toward Temple. Oklahoma could definitely let off the gas here offensively. The Sooners wouldn't really benefit from running up the score. They are more likely to want to get ready for Auburn next week.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Angels and Marinrs just played a 12 inning game and ruined their bullpens on Thursday night. Both of the starting pitchers in this game have been struggling, and they could struggle to pitch deep into the game.

The Angels are averaging 5.5 runs per game in their last six games. The Mariners are averaging 8 runs per game in their last six games.

Kikuchi starts for the Angels, and he has been crushed of late. In fact, he has a 9.13 ERA in his last five starts. He ranks in the bottom 7% of all pitchers in the majors in average exit velocity for season. Seattle has several guys who have hit him very well. That includes Suarez who has 3 HR's in 12 at bats against Kikuchi.

Luis Castillo has a 7.83 ERA and a 6.06 FIP in his last five starts. Castillo has allowed 7 home runs in his last five starts. 

The bullpens are 17th and 22nd in bullpen ERA in the last 30 days. Both have used their best arms heavily in recent games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians start Gavin Williams here. Williams is a good young pitcher who has been pitching his best late in the season.

The Kansas City Royals are 25th in wOBA for the season. Bobby Witt Jr. is trying to play through and injury and he hasn't been himself of late.

Cleveland is last in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Guardians have struggled offensively at home all year long. 

Both defenses have been very good at saving runs and that could be key here.

The weather is calling for temperatures in the upper 60's with a light wind blowing in from center field.

Phil Cuzzi is a very good under umpire. The under is 67-44 in Cuzzi's games behind home plate since 2022. He is a strike caller and a very pitcher friendly umpire. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Eury Perez is in really poor form of late. Perez has a 8.53 ERA and a 7.41 FIP in his last six starts. He has been giving up a lot of very hard hit baseballs in recent starts. The Nationals just torched him for 7 runs in 4 IP in his last start.

Washington has scored 45 runs in their last six games. The Nationals offense has absolutely caught fire. James Wood continues to hit the ball well, and Josh Bell has had an amazing resurgence in the last couple weeks. 

Jake Irvin is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Irvin has an 8.86 ERA and a 7.08 FIP in his last 9 innings pitched. Irvin has been consistently terrible, and he has been even worse away from home.

Both of these pitchers have the potential to give up big innings at any time right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mike Tomlin's teams have struggled offensively on the road in the last decade, but they have been tremendous on defense. When Tomlin and the Steelers are on the road in the first ten games of the season- the under is a whopping 40-11 in the last 51 contests. 

The Steelers offense has all sorts of question marks. Will Rodgers be a good fit? He's clearly far past his prime and his level of play last season wasn't very high. The Jets defense is a good one too, and they should make life difficult on him.

Justin Fields hasn't proven himself as a quarterback in the NFL. The Jets lost their best offensive lineman Vera-Tucker to an injury this week. Their lack of depth on the offensive line makes that a big problem. The Steelers defensive front is one of the best in the NFL.

It's a low total, but I don't think it is quite low enough. A 17-14 type of game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri State Bears are a new FBS team this year. Missouri State's defense is going to be badly overmatched this season. They lost a bunch of talent from a year ago, and now take a big step up in terms of schedule strength they will be playing. Missouri State is going to give up a bunch of points this season. 

Marshall isn't a good offense necessarily, but I expect them to be able to break some big rushing plays against a very weak front seven for Missouri State. USC is certainly talented on offense, but they put up video game numbers. They won 73-13 and put up 10.5 yards per play.

Marshall's defense is way down from what they have been from recent seasons. I do think Missouri State has two good quarterbacks and they'll likely play pretty quickly in terms of tempo. 

I think the oddsmakers are underestimating how much worse the Marshall defense is, and just how bad the Missouri State defense will be on a weekly basis.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats got into a shootout with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Week One. Ohio put up 7.1 yards per play in that one. They allowed 6.8 yards per play in that contest. Navarro had a huge game both through the air and on the ground. 

West Virginia definitely wants to play fast under Rich Rodriguez. The Mountaineers have two really good running backs. Rutgers was able to run the ball very well on Ohio, and I think West Virginia will as well. The Mountaineers just play at a much faster tempo.

The Mountaineers defense lost a lot from a year ago, and I see their secondary as a big weakness. Ohio should be able to hit some big gainers here. West Virginia wasn't tested by a very weak Robert Morris offense, but they'll be tested here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners impressed me with a really good ground game against an excellent Texas A&M defense in week one. UTSA put up 24 points, and they ran for 203 yards. I like their quarterback Owen McCown, and he has good weapons around him.

Texas State got a new quarterback this year, but the Bobcats offense was firing on all cylinders in game one against Eastern Michigan. Texas State scored 52 points and ran for a whopping 392 yards in that game. The Bobcats averaged 9.2 yards per play.

Texas State will be a top ten teams in the country in terms of pace of play. UTSA should be top 30 or 40 in the country in tempo. I expect a bunch of possessions in this game. 

The offenses have plenty of advantages. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers got a fantastic defensive leader in Catalon at safety. Newsom is a really good linebacker as well. I think the Missouri defense will be very solid this season. 

While Pribula looked good against an FCS team, I do think the Missouri offense will struggle to move the ball consistently this year. Missouri lost two star receivers and I would expect them to try to run the football a lot in this game.

Kansas hasn't been tested by a good defense yet. Daniels has proven to be inconsistent, and I think this Missouri secondary could give him trouble. The Jayhawks defense certainly isn't fantastic, but they are clearly improving. They held Fresno State to 3.7 YPP and then Fresno State's offense looked very good against GA Southern.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats defense looked very good against Nebraska. They gave up only 4.5 yards per play against a Nebraska offense that I expect to be good this season.

Cincinnati's offense still has some issues with Sorsby under center. He's a good scrambler and can make some nice plays, but he makes questionable decisions and doesn't have enough accuracy on his passes.

Bowling Green won 26-7 over Lafayette in week one. Only 19 of the points came on offense, since they ran back the opening kick for a TD. The Falcons ran the ball 43 times and threw it just 18 times. I don't trust Drew Pyne and company to move the ball very well here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Ohio Redhawks get involved in a lot of sloppy low scoring games. They are always very solid on defense, but their offense moves slowly and is often overmatched against bigger name schools. 

Miami Ohio lost 17-0 against Wisconsin in week one. They had just 7 first downs and averaged only 2.9 yards per play. The Wisconsin defense is definitely good, but being held to those numbers is a horrible look. DeQuan Finn is a good QB, but he has very little skill position talent around him, and the offensive line is young.

Rutgers got involved in a higher scoring game last week, but that was against an Ohio team that is better offensively and worse defensively than Miami. Rutgers is the third slowest paced team in the country through the first week. They are in no hurry and they will use up the play clock. Miami rates in the bottom 15 in the country in tempo, and that is even with them playing from behind the entire game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green should be much better on defense this year under new DC Skyler Cassity. He did a fantastic job at Sam Houston, and he brought some of his best players over to be the leaders of this North Texas defense. I expect Trey Fields to be a force at linebacker. Yes it was only Lamar (FCS), but North Texas shut them out last week. The Mean Green routinely gave up a lot of points to teams like this in the past. 

Western Michigan's offense couldn't get anything going at all against Michigan State. Their only points in that game came thanks to a Michigan State pick six. They managed to run for only 29 yards on 24 carries. Western Michigan has major question marks at quarterback as well. 

The Western Michigan defense did do a good job limiting Michigan State's offense in that season opener. The Spartans averaged just 4.9 yards per play. 

The forecast here is key as well. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 26 mph at time of kickoff. It would be a cross wind that can be difficult for passing. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Blue Jays and Yankees are both top 3 in the majors in nearly every major offensive category in the last 30 days. These are two excellent offenses.

The wind is blowing out at Yankee Stadium at about 12 mph on a warm day with a high in the mid 80's. The weather conditions are fantastic for an over.

Chris Bassitt is an inconsistent starter, and he has allowed a .376 wOBA against this Yankees lineup in a very large sample size. 

Luis Gil is a middle of the road starter, and the Blue Jays bats are on fire of late. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks are still a pretty good offense. The DBacks top of the order is one of the best in baseball. Tolle is a good young pitcher for the Red Sox, but he has flown up through the minors and he's now up against much better hitters than he has seen anytime. He faced the Pirates in his first start, so this is a much tougher test.

Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled this year. He has very poor numbers against this Red Sox lineup as well. Trevor Story has really seen the ball well off Rodriguez. 

Chase Field is still a top four or five hitters ballpark in all of baseball. A total set this low isn't very common here without high level pitchers going.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Yankees and  Blue Jays are the second and third ranked offenses in baseball in the last 30 days in terms of weighted on base average. 

The Yankees have gotten red hot of late. They have scored 7 runs or more in six of their last eight games. Kevin Gausman is a pretty good pitcher overall, but he has been torched in his last three starts at Yankee Stadium. Gausman has allowed 17 runs in his last 8 and 2/3 innings pitched at Yankee Stadium. He has a tough task here.

Cam Schlittler is a good young pitcher, but he has faced a lot of very weak lineups. His last four starts have been against very weak offenses. He's up against a top five offense in baseball here in the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto has scored 37 runs in their last four games.

The two bullpens here are no better than mediocre. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins have been hitting right handed pitching, and Davis Martin is certainly a below average right handed pitcher. Simeon Woods Richardson is also a below average right handed pitcher.

The key for this game to me though is that both bullpens have been awful in the last month. The Twins traded away their top two bullpen arms, and they are struggling badly. The White Sox have a bottom three bullpen that is worn out right now.

There are showers expected here which could mean the bullpen gets a lot of time, and I'll be on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Shane Baz has been rocked when pitching at home in Tampa this season. Baz has a 7.06 ERA at home on the season. Baz has an 8.47 ERA in his last seven starts overall. 

Seattle's offense ranks in the top five in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Mariners have plenty of power, and Baz is prone to that big inning.

Luis Castillo has been in very poor form of late too. Castillo has a 6.66 ERA and a 6.70 FIP in his last five starts overall. 

Tampa Bay has hit right handed pitching well all season, and the Rays have continued that trend of late. 

These are two starters who have at times been absolutely smashed. I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Teng has been awful for the Giants. He has an 8.78 ERA and 9 walks in just 13 and 1/3 innings pitched this season. He has given up free baserunners and a lot of hard contact. Those are bad combinations going to Coors Field.

Chase Dollander has been absolutely crushed at Coors Field this season. Dollander has a 9.88 ERA in 41 innings pitched at Coors. Opponents have a whopping .407 weighted on base average against him at Coors. 

The Giants have averaged 9 runs per game in their last five games. Now, they go to take on a very bad starting pitcher at Coors Field.

Colorado is solid offensively at home as well.

Coors Field day games with a total of 12 or lower and a high temperature of 82 degrees or higher have gone over the total at a 56.2% clip in the last 20 seasons. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The wind is blowing in at Fenway Park. The wind matters the most at Wrigley Field in Chicago, but Fenway is where long term stats show the wind matters second most. With the wind blowing in at Fenway and relatively moderate temperatures, it is a clear positive for the pitchers in this one.

Messick has been fantastic in his two starts in the majors. He has just one walk and 12 strikeouts. He is one of the higher prospects in the Guardians organization, and he is showing why right now. 

Boston hasn't been hitting very well of late. Six of their last seven games have stayed under this total. 

Cleveland has seen five of their last seven stay under this total as well. Bello starts for Boston here and he has gotten stronger as the season has gone on.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have a new offensive coordinator in Drew Hollingshead from Western Kentucky. He is an air raid guy who has talked recently about wanting to push the tempo and confuse the defense with a lot of quick unique looks. 

Coastal Carolina has a couple good QB options in Morris and Brown. The Chanticleers absolutely upgraded in the RB room in the offseason. The wide receiver room has depth. 

Virginia's defensive line is decent, but I don't like their LB's or secondary. The Cavaliers are going to get picked on by good teams through the air. 

Offensively, Virginia has Chandler Morris who should fit nicely into the Kitchings system. The Cavs have a much improved RB room with Waylee and Brown. 

Coastal's weakness on defense should be against the pass, and I think Virginia can take advantage of that weakness. 

I expect quite a few possessions in this game.

Take the over.