*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters don't have star Luke Nelson. He hasn't played yet this year, this offense is lost without him. Irvine is doing their best to slow the game down and win with defense. They have played a lot of low scoring games this year, even when they are playing against a team with a fast tempo.

Akron is playing much slower this year. The Zips do shoot the ball well so that is a bit of a concern, but UC Irvine's defense is better than average.

Another factor that helps us here is this is being played on a neutral floor. It is UTEP's home floor, which is obviously a place neither of these teams normally play at. That helps the under because of the different shooting backdrop and general unfamiliarity.

I had this game totaled at 133 points. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers and the Illinois Fighting Illini have a pretty solid rivalry. These teams take pride in this game, and it will be hard fought. 

In the last three contests between these two the final scores have been 65-64, 62-59, and 68-63. All comfortably under this posted total. 

A big factor here is that this game is played at the Scottrade Center. This is well known to be a terrible gym for jumpshooters. The shooting backdrop is very difficult. This isn't a place where these two teams are accustomed to playing, so it is likely we will see some below average shooting.

Missouri is looking to push the pace this year, but they rank 313th in effective field goal percentage. On the other hand, the Tigers rank ninth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a team that fights hard, but isn't good at scoring. 

Illinois has slowed down their tempo a lot from last year, and they are the better team.

I think this one stays around 130. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The over has value here because both of these teams should be able to take advantage of their opponents weakness on defense. 

Quinnipiac is a team that relentlessly crashes the offensive boards. The team sends everyone after the offensive board, and that leaves them in some terrible positions when it comes to transition defense. The Bobcats are one of the worst transition defenses in the country.

On the other side, Drexel is terrible at defensive rebounding. The Dragons have given up a bunch of second chance points against far lesser offensive rebounding teams than Quinnipiac. 

I think this means that Drexel will get a lot of run out opportunities when they do get the defensive rebound, which will lead to quick scores. At the same time, Quinnipiac should be able to get a bunch of second chance points which are huge for the over as well.

I had this number in the mid 160's. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Colorado Bears want to play fast under Jeff Linder. They have picked up the tempo in their last three games, and I expect them to keep going here.

UC Riverside has been terrible on offense this year, but they have played the 16th toughest schedule in the country. They have gone up against teams like Utah, UCLA, and UNLV. The Highlanders are playing at an average pace, it is just their shooting numbers have been atrocious on the year. I don't think they are a good shooting team, but they aren't as bad as their numbers so far. 

With both teams here ranking in the bottom 100 in field goal percentage defense, I think this is a game where we see both teams shoot better than their season average. Because UC Riverside has shot the ball so poorly, this total has dropped several points, and now I believe it is a solid value.

Last year these two teams played to a 143 total. Both teams are playing faster this year. Take the over here. 

*3 Star NFL Monday Night MONEY* The Carolina Panthers are allowing 6.6 yards per play on the road so far this year. That is the worst mark of any team in the NFL. Which team is first in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games? Washington is at 6.7 yards per play.

This Redskins offense is playing terrific right now. Kirk Cousins has made much better decisions with the football, and the running game has given them a lot more balance of late. Jordan Reed is still a tremendous weapon for the Redskins also.

As good as the Redskins offense is, I don't like this Washington defense. They are 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I think Carolina gets quite a few big plays in this one. While Carolina technically has nothing to play for now, I think a Monday night game will keep them interested here. The Redskins have allowed at least 20 points in all but one game this year. 

The Panthers have allowed 40 points or more in 3 of their last 5 road games. 

The over is 4-0 in the Panthers last 4 after throwing for 150 yards or less last game. The over is 8-0 in the Redskins last 8 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 December games. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star CBB Under Radar CASH* The Green Bay Phoenix play at the 7th quickest tempo of any team in the country. It isn't very often that you'll see a total this low on one of their games. SIU Edwardsville is a team that typically plays to the pace of the opponent. Overall, on the year SIU Edwardsville ranks 105th in tempo out of 351 teams, so they are pretty quick as well.

I think we are getting value from both teams recent games. Green Bay just lost 73-59 to Wisconsin. Wisconsin isn't going to let anyone run, and it shouldn't be a surprise that the game was lower scoring there. Edwardsville is coming off a low scoring game against St. Louis. I had the under in that one and cashed, but the primary reason for the under was St. Louis and their slow style of play. In this one, Edwardsville goes up against a team that wants to run in a big way.

This number has been bet down to the point where I see value. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Marquette Golden Eagles have been tremendous on offense this year. Marquette ranks 18th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Golden Eagles have scored over 100 points twice this year. They have scored 81 points or more in 8 of their 10 games this year.

Marquette will be up against a very weak defense in this one. St. Francis (PA) comes into this one ranked 319th in defensive efficiency on the year, and that is despite the fact that they have played one of the weakest schedules in the country. Marquette will easily be the best team they have faced so far. Lehigh put up 100 on St. Francis two games ago.

Marquette is pushing the pace in a big way, and so far this year St. Francis has been pushing the issue as well. I think Marquette puts up 100 in this one, and St. Francis gets us enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CBB Sunday Night Totals MONEY* The Washington Huskies are averaging 93 points per game on their home floor this year. Washington plays at the seventh quickest tempo of any team in the country. 

Washington plays against a weak Western Michigan defense here. The Broncos are 339th in effective field goal percentage defense out of 351 teams in the country. Western Michigan already allowed 91 points against a Boise State team that doesn't run very much. They also allowed 97 points at home against UNC Wilmington.

Western Michigan should be able to score enough here. Washington's defense ranks 206th in defensive efficiency, so they aren't good on this end either. 

With the pace and the defenses, I'll take this one over the posted total. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Falcons are first in the NFL in yards per play at 6.5. San Francisco's defense is banged up and they have been terrible away from home. The 49ers are allowing 6.3 yards per play on the road. San Francisco doesn't have anyone in the secondary to slow down the Falcons deep threats. Matt Ryan and this Atlanta offense are firing on all cylinders right now. I think Atlanta puts up a big number in this game.

San Francisco still plays at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. That is certainly a big help when you are taking the over. San Francisco's offense had serious problems with the weather in Chicago two weeks ago, and then they are a solid under team at home. Coming off two unders and now traveling to play in a dome against a high scoring team, I see this as a great opportunity to play the over.

The Falcons defense is 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.7, so they aren't all that good either. I see a lot of big plays in this game.

The over is a perfect 6-0 in the Falcons home games so far this year. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star College Hoops TOP Play of the Week* The Fairfield Stags like to play fast. Sydney Johnson's team went 7-24 two years ago and before last season he decided it was time to try something different. That was speeding up the tempo. It helped the team to a 19-14 year last year. Fairfield is 5-3 so far this year, and they are running once again.

NC State has picked up the pace drastically this year. The Wolfpack are playing about 3 possessions per game faster than last season. Dennis Smith is the main reason for that change. Smith is an extraordinary freshman point guard with tons of speed. He is a great distributor, and can get to the rack when he needs to as well. 

The thing that intrigues me quite a bit here is how bad the offenses have been that Fairfield has played so far this year. Fairfield's defense looks decent on paper, but the Stags haven't played an offense ranked higher than 88th in offensive efficiency so far this year. NC State ranks 36th in the nation in offensive efficiency. I think NC State can put up a bunch of points in this spot. 

The Wolfpack defense has only been mediocre on the year. They rank 113th in defensive efficiency. Fairfield should score a solid amount based on the tempo of the game here.

The over is 12-4 in NC State's last 16 home games. 

I think this game gets into the upper 150's, so I see a lot of value here. Take the over big. 

*4 Star Steelers/Bengals Rivalry CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals meet on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. It's no secret that these two teams don't like each other at all. In general, the bigger the game is the better it is for the under. 

Cincinnati isn't going to make the playoffs this year. That means this game is their Super Bowl for the rest of the season. There is nothing more the Bengals would love to do than ruin Pittsburgh's playoff standing. In the past three games, Cincinnati's defense is allowing only 4.6 yards per game. That is second in the NFL to the Denver Broncos. 

Pittsburgh's defense has been much better in recent weeks as well. The Steelers rank 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. The Steelers have allowed only 12.5 points per game in their last four games.

The weather should help some here as well. Light snow showers or flurries are expected and winds of 10 to 15 mph with temperatures in the mid 20's. 

Since 2007, when a team is in the first of three straight divisional games to finish the season like Pittsburgh is (Cincy, Bal, Cle) the under is 26-4-1 when the total is 40 points or higher. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 31-4 angle. 

I think both defenses play well here. Take the under.

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Giants and the Detroit Lions meet at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The weather forecast here calls for a temperature in the mid 40's and winds of 15 mph gusting to 20 or 25 mph during the game. That will make it a lot tougher to throw the ball, which is important since neither of these teams can run the ball. 

There is clearly a lot of sharp money on the under here, and while I would have liked to have this one at 43 or 44, I still think it is a good play at this level. Matt Stafford has a finger injury and that should limit him a bit. 

The Giants defense is sixth in the NFL in yards per play allowed and they are fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games.

The Giants offense is fourth worst in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. Only the Jaguars, Browns, and Rams have been worse. 

Detroit is 29th in the NFL in rushing yards. New York is 30th in rushing yards. I think we see both offenses struggle through the elements on Sunday.

The under is 7-0 in the Lions last 7 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on turf. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. an NFC foe. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 games. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* All signs point to an absolute track meet on the floor in this one. Kentucky is shooting at the fourth fastest pace of any team in the country. North Carolina is 12th so far this year. The next time I see Roy Williams slow a game down will be the first time. Williams was asked about whether he would slow the pace down this week and unequivocally said no way. 

De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk are great at pushing the pace for Kentucky. Fox has been one of the best players in the country this year.

Kentucky has scored 87 points or more in all but one game so far this year. North Carolina has scored 93 points or more in 6 of 11 games this season.

It is a neutral court which is a slight negative for the over, but that is being factored in too much in my opinion. This is must see television, and I think we see a close game with both teams getting up into the 80's. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The St. Louis Billikens figured out that they cannot run the type of offense that Travis Ford wanted to run when he came over. He'll get players later on that can run more, but right now this offense is way too bad to be trying to run the floor. They have to settle down and stall the game out. They have done that in their last two games and Coach Ford has suggested they need to keep doing that. Jermaine Bishop missed last game. He is the team's best player. He is questionable for this one.

SIU Edwardsville has been up and down as far as their point production on the year, but last game they lost 49-44 to Missouri Western State. Wow.

Edwardsville and St. Louis are two of the least efficient offenses in the country, and when you put them together I think we will see a very sloppy game where neither team gets into an offensive rhythm. 

I had this one at 130 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UIC Flames took a huge hit when their star Dikembe Dixson went down with a season ending injury last game. The entire offense ran through Dixson and he took about 1/3 of the team's shots. No one on the team can match his slashing ability, and that is what had them living at the line so far this year.

Loyola Chicago always looks to slow the game down. Last year, Loyola was able to get the matchup between these two teams played at their tempo. The final was 64-47. I don't expect it to be that low this year, but 149 is too high.

UIC will still try to play fast, but their offensive efficiency level will be way down without Dixson the rest of the year. Loyola is favored by several here, and they are great at slowing the game down when they have the lead.

Also note that Loyola is great at playing defense without fouling and UIC relies heavily on getting to the lien.

I think a total in the low 140's would have made sense. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs run the ball more than anyone in the country except for the teams that run the triple option. In fact, San Diego State run it even more frequently than Georgia Southern and Tulane, which both run option offenses.

San Diego is going to want to run Donnell Pumphrey consistently in this game. Pumphrey needs 107 yards to break Ron Dayne's career rushing record. Still, it might be tough sledding here. Houston's run defense is excellent. How good? Houston is second behind only Alabama in yards per carry allowed this year. Houston is giving up just 2.87 yards per carry. 

San Diego State's secondary is the strength of the team, and Houston is a pass heavy team this year. Led by DeMontae Kazee, this Aztecs secondary is very aggressive on the line of scrimmage, and I think Houston's receivers will struggle to get separation. 

Houston isn't moving quite as quickly this year as they did in the past on offense. San Diego State ranks in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo.

I had this one totaled at 49 points, so this is more than a touchdown off my number. Take the under big. 

*This line has been bet down since the release. I would still play the under here though. I believe this is a strong situation.*

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado State Rams are playing noticeably slower this year. They have a less experienced team, and I imagine Larry Eustachy has slowed things down on purpose. On the other hand, Colorado State is much better on defense than they were a year ago. This is a tall team with length on the perimeter, and they are making it tough on opponents backcourts.

The Kansas State Wildcats defense is good every year, and this year is no different. Bruce Weber is a defensive minded coach first. Kansas State ranks in the bottom 50 in the country in overall tempo, and with Colorado State not pushing the issue, the tempo should be very slow here.

Without some really good shooting numbers from these teams, I think we'll see a game that stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Arizona Wildcats only have 7 players healthy right now. They can't push the tempo, because they have to stay fresh. They have slowed things down quite a bit in recent games.

Texas A&M is without Danuel House and Jalen Jones, their top two players from last year. Because of that, the team is playing a much slower pace and playing a lot of low scoring games this year. Texas A&M held UCLA to only 74 points, by far their lowest point output of the season, so that shows you how well they can slow down the opposition.

This game is being played at noon eastern, or 11 am central. This is a really early game for both of these teams. Also, it is played in the Toyota Center, which is noted for being one of the worst shooting backdrops in the country. It is especially difficult for guys who never play there, and obviously neither of these teams play there normally. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star CBB TGIF Play of Day* The Oregon State Beavers were embarrassed by losing at home to lowly Savannah State in their last game. Co-captain and coaches son Tres Tinkle gave an emotional speech to the team after the game. Both Wayne (Dad and Coach) and Tres talked this week about the importance of focusing on defense. Oregon State hasn't been strong enough on defense this year. 

Tres Tinkle is injured right now, and he is no doubt the team's best player. He knew he had to step up and light a fire into his teammates though. Coach Tinkle said he believes the Beavers defense has been "atrocious" of late. Tinkle also said some other important things to an Oregon State beat writer this week. He said he wants the team to slow down and play a much slower tempo in order to limit offensive mistakes and help opponents not get out in transition against them.

Oregon State actually held Savannah State to their slowest pace of the year by far, so they started the slower pace last game. They play Long Beach State in this one. Long Beach State has some ugly defensive numbers this year, but that is primarily because they have played the number one ranked schedule in the country. Long Beach State will be middle of the road in defense by the end of the year. 

Long Beach State is playing at a slower tempo than they did last year, so I don't think they'll push the issue too much here. 

With a bigger effort on defense from Oregon State and two inefficient offenses, I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* This posted total is too high for me to overlook. The Raptors and Hawks met earlier this year and the posted total was 207. That game finished with 212 points. Toronto won by a whopping margin of 128-84. 

Toronto has been putting up some massive point totals of late, and that has contributed to this line. Still, it is important to point out that Toronto ranks 23rd in the NBA in pace. Atlanta ranks 5th in tempo.

Atlanta is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. While they have been poor on defense lately, I think they show some pride here after giving up 128 points to Toronto last time. If there was ever a time to work hard on defense, this is it for Atlanta.

Also important is the fact that Atlanta is 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Hawks have a hard time scoring a ton of points because they take too many poor shots.

In the past few years, the normal total for a meeting between these two teams has been about 205 points. I can't pass up the value when we see a total this high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The FIU Panthers are using up 19.4 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. That means on offense they are 337th fastest out of 351 teams. Clearly, they are looking to slow the game down and keep it low scoring. FIU just isn't very good on offense. The Panthers don't have a go to scorer, and they don't get to the line much at all.

Georgia Southern has slowed their pace down from last year. The Eagles have made defense a priority this year. This team was really weak on defense, but so far this year they are up to average on that side of the ball. 

Both teams rank in the bottom half of the nation in free throw attempts. I think this one is a few points too high. 

I'll take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The DePaul Blue Demons host the UIC Flames in a battle of two teams from Chicago on Wednesday night. Last year when these two teams played the final was 79-52, but that doesn't tell the whole story. The pace was ridiculously fast at 79 possessions. UIC scored only 0.70 points per possession in that game. The Flames offense was very inefficient last year, but they are much better on offense this season.

UIC averaged less than 0.89 points per possession last year, but this year they average almost 1.01 points per possession. That's a huge difference, and this team is playing at the 18th fastest tempo of any team in the country. UIC gets to the line more often than any other team in the country (out of 351 teams). 

DePaul has played a bunch of teams who look to slow the tempo down. This will be the first team to really push the pace against DePaul. I think that gives us value on the number here. DePaul ranks in the top 40 in the nation in free throws attempted as well, and both of these teams foul more than the average college basketball team. 

My numbers had this one at 160 points. I think both teams make a living at the charity stripe and the pace is very quick. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Illinois Salukis host the St. Louis Billikens here. Travis Ford wanted to play an uptempo style of basketball with his St. Louis team, but he is quickly realizing he can't do it yet. Why? St. Louis is awful on offense. Pushing the tempo gives them very little chance to win because the opponent is almost always a more efficient offense.

St. Louis has scored 64 points or less in 7 of their 9 games this year. That is despite the fact that they played their first four games at a blazing fast tempo. Take a look at their last game against lowly Chicago State. St. Louis won that game 45-43 and scored a grand total of two points in the last 9:38 of that game! 

Southern Illinois is weak this year as well without Anthony Beane who was their star scorer a year ago. The Salukis rank 303rd in the country in pace out of 351 teams. They will want to play slowly here, and I think St. Louis will be happy with that also based on their recency.

I think this is a game that stays around 130. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Morehead State Eagles and the Eastern Washington Eagles meet on Tuesday night. I understand why the total is high here, both teams struggle on the defensive end. Still, I think this one has gotten a little too high to pass up. 

Morehead State ranks 250th in tempo on the offensive side alone (the time it takes them to put up a shot when they have possession). Eastern Washington ranks 318th out of 351 teams in the country. Clearly, both teams are looking to slow the game down. In a game between two teams that slow the game down this much, this total in the mid 150's is very high.

It will take some really impressive shooting numbers to get this one past the posted total. I think both teams will shoot it pretty well, but not well enough. 

One thing that likely helps inflate this total is the fact that Eastern Washington has played three overtime games this year. Two of them have gone into double overtime. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The New England Patriots are definitely short-handed on offense right now. There's no doubt that Tom Brady is one of the greats of all time, but it would hurt anyone to be without Rob Gronkowski. To make matters even worse, the Patriots are now also without Amendola. He had 65 catches last year, so he's obviously a big part of the offense as well. 

It might surprise you to know that New England runs the ball 44.33% of the time. That is the fifth highest rushing percentage in the NFL. This year's Baltimore defense is amazing against the run. They are clearly the best team in the NFL against the run, and they are the best in several years according to the advanced metrics. Brady has less passing game weapons here, so this is important.

Joe Flacco had a great game last week, but it was still only one game. Baltimore's offense has been disappointing most of the year. New England's defense ranks third in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. This is an underappreciated unit.

The weather should play a role here. Sustained wind of 15 miles per hour is expected during this game with gusts of 20-25 mph. Wind hurts passing games more than anything else.

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Drexel Dragons are playing much quicker under first year head coach Zach Spiker. The Dragons are shooting it in an average of 15.5 seconds each time they get the ball. That is 42nd fastest in the country out of 351 teams.

St. Joe's plays at an average pace. The Hawks have played several good defensive teams of late, and their offensive numbers have been hit hard because of that. Drexel will be the worst defensive team they have played in a long time.

St. Joe's has some good long range shooters, and Drexel has struggled all year to get out on shooters. Look for a game that gets close to 150 points. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* Weather will be a big factor in this game. Both teams will have to play very conservatively. The Steelers defense is much improved and Buffalo's defense is better at home.

The weather forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for 10-15 mph winds and about an inch of snow during the afternoon. The combination of snow and some wind is really helpful for the under. There isn't a place in the NFL where the weather can change the game more than Buffalo.

Buffalo plays at exactly an average pace of play, while Pittsburgh is slightly slower than average in their tempo. Things usually slow down when weather is a big factor, and I think that will be the case here. 

Buffalo's running game is definitely good with McCoy. I think they'll get some yards here, but I think Buffalo will be too one-dimensional to pile up the points with a situation like this. Pittsburgh will know the run is coming.

The Buffalo defense was embarrassed in the third and fourth quarter last week at Oakland, and I think they bounce back here. This team has a lot of talent on the defensive end, and here is where they should show some pride.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Play of the Week* The weather will be a big factor in Cleveland this weekend and I want to get this one locked in early. Both teams will need to be very conservative with the wind and snow on Sunday afternoon by the lake. I think this is a game that is played very low scoring and close the whole way.

The forecast here calls for 1 to 3 inches of snow during the afternoon and winds of about 15 mph. Those are terrible conditions, and that should definitely change the way this one is played.

Robert Griffin III is expected to start here for Cleveland, and in the snow and wind I have to expect the Browns offensive game plan to be very conservative. In their last 3 games, the Bengals defense has been much better. In fact, they rank fifth in the league in yards per play allowed at only 4.8 during the last three games. 

Even more interesting is the fact that Cleveland's defense ranks 12th in the NFL in yards per play allowed during the last three games. The Browns have faced some weaker offenses during that time, and they face a weak one here. Cincinnati isn't the same without A.J. Green, and they definitely miss Gio Bernard in the backfield as well. The Bengals running game hasn't been very good with Jeremy Hill.

Cleveland is coming off a bye week, and they know this is likely their best chance to win a game this year. I think they fight harder than normal here. 

A lot of running the ball and moving clock because of the weather will help.

Take the under big. 

*Note- The line has moved down since I made this play a couple days ago. The weather continues to look bad and I would still make this a top rated play on the under. It looks like a sloppy contest is in store.* 

*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers have nothing left to play for. Neither do the San Diego Chargers. When neither team is motivated, I find that the game is generally higher scoring because motivation and important games generally makes the defenses play much better. 

Here, we have two offenses who are capable of making a lot of big plays. Phillip Rivers gets to play in North Carolina for the first time since he played at NC State, and I think Rivers will have a big day here. 

Carolina's defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed, and they rank in the bottom ten in their last three games. Luke Kuechly will miss this game again, and his absence is a big loss for the Panthers. San Diego ranks 9th in the NFL in yards per play on offense.

The over is 5-2 in the Chargers last 7 road games. The over is 11-4-1 in the Panthers last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is definitely a rivalry game, and I think that helps the under. These teams will be working hard on the defensive end in this one. They played once already this year and the total finished at 131. I think this one finishes in the 130's as well.

New Mexico State likes to slow the game down. This game is on their home floor, so I expect them to be able to get their tempo even better than they did in game one between these teams.

New Mexico relies heavily on getting to the line for their offense, and I think they'll get less attempts at the line in this game since they are on the road. New Mexico is slower on offense than they were a year ago by a lot. 

Both teams lost their top offensive player from last year. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs are still playing relatively slow. There are a couple things different about this team so far this year though. One- they are much weaker on the defensive end. They were 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 51st this year. Second- they are much more efficient on the offensive end. They were 170th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 90th in offensive efficiency this year.

Arizona State will push the tempo here. The Sun Devils have played only one game that finished lower than 145 points so far this year. That was a 68-60 loss to Davidson where both teams shot the ball horribly. Arizona State has multiple good three point shooters, and that should help them against San Diego State. 

This number has gotten too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks went away from running and gunning in the early season, but recent games suggest they are back to playing really fast again. UNC Wilmington has scored at least 97 points in each of their last three games, and the tempo in those games has been on average more than 10 possessions higher than their tempo through their first five games.

They face a St. Bonaventure team who is attempting to play faster this year. They are 71st in the nation in tempo. So far, it has worked out nicely. The Bonnies are 6-2 with some pretty decent wins. They have scored a minimum of 81 points in each of their last five games. 

Another key point here is that both teams do a lot of fouling. These teams both rank in the top 1/4 of teams in the country in fouling, and that should lead to a bunch of time at the charity stripe in this game. 

I think this game should get close to 160. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have only had one game fall below this posted total all year. Oklahoma State ranks in the top five in the country in terms of tempo. Oklahoma State has only failed to score 90 points in a game twice so far this year. 

Tulsa has some major issues handling pressure, and that is exactly what they'll get all game from Oklahoma State all game in this one. Oklahoma State forces the 5th most turnovers of any team in the country. The Cowboys should force a bunch here, and they'll turn them into transition opportunities.

I believe Oklahoma State is the better team here, and I think they'll get the lead and play this game at their pace. Tulsa will have to play quickly to try to catch up.

Take the over. 

*5 Star Army/Navy TOP Play CRUSHER* These two teams know each other really well. They run exactly the same offense. While these running offenses are among the best in the country, they generally benefit from facing a defense that isn't accustomed to facing the triple option. That won't be the case here. These defenses will be much better against that option look.

In the past ten years, every single meeting between these two teams has gone under the posted total. The highest scoring game during that period was 48 points. In the last four years, the final total has been 30, 41, 27, and 38 points.

Navy is without their top two quarterbacks for this game. Will Worth got hurt last game and now Navy is really short-handed here. The Midshipmen offense has been very good this year, but this is a big setback.

Army's offense has had 235 yards or less in two of the last three meetings with Navy.

Dating back 10 years, Navy has only topped 400 yards once in this series. Army has only topped 400 yards of offense once as well.

This line is posted too high. Look for a bunch of running and the clock ticking away. I think this line should be in the low to mid 40's.

Take the under big. 

*Note- The line has dropped here throughout the week. My ratings dependent on the line are as follows: a 5 star play at 51 or higher. a 4 star play at 48 or higher, and a 3 star play at 45 or higher. Thank you!*

*4 Star Play Over* IN 5 of Purdue's 9 games so far this year, they have scored 85 points or more. Purdue is playing much quicker than they did a year ago. They rank about 100 spots faster in tempo overall in the country than they did a year ago. Purdue faces a really weak defense here in Cleveland State. The Vikings are terrible on the defensive glass, and Purdue will get a ton of second chance points in this game. 

Cleveland State coach Gary Waters is telling his team to pick up the tempo this year. They are playing about 3 possessions per game faster than a year ago. Demonte Flanigan is arguably Cleveland State's best offensive player. He missed the team's first few games, but is back and playing well. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Early Start TOP Total* The Temple Owls and DePaul Blue Demons both prefer a slow tempo. Temple ranks 225th in tempo so far on the year, and DePaul ranks 251st out of 351 teams. I see no reason to believe that either team will push the pace in this one either.

There are several reasons other than just tempo that I think this is a great bet. First, this game starts at 11:30 am. It doesn't always work this way, but in the long run there is no doubt that an abnormally early game is a positive for points. It's a good thing for unders. DePaul is in Illinois and on central time, so on their body clocks it will be a 10:30 start time.

Another big positive for the under here is this game is played at a neutral site. It is actually at American Airlines Arena in Miami (where the Heat play). This is obviously a big arena and these teams aren't accustomed to playing there. Again, this is a great thing for the under. It's hard to jump onto a new floor with shooting backdrops you aren't accustomed to, and play in front of a very small crowd.

I think this game will be more sloppy than the average game, and this line is at least 10 points off from reality.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels definitely have an efficient offense, but it is hard for them to get to a total this high with the tempo they play at. St. Mary's is 350th in overall tempo out of 351 teams in the nation. They are using up more than 20 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. 

UT Arlington has slowed down their pace this year. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted for that yet. UT Arlington was previously one of the fastest teams in the country, but so far this year they are playing at only an average tempo. UT Arlington is better on defense than most teams St. Mary's has gone up against so far this year. 

St. Mary's is likely too good for UT Arlington, and that's a good thing for the under. St. Mary's is one of the best teams you will find in the country at "taking the air out of the ball." The Gaels should be able to do that here and keep this one under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen have played five straight games that finished under this posted total. I think that has set us up for some great value here. There was an early steam move on the under here, and I'm glad to take the lower price.

UMass has played five straight teams that look to slow down the tempo. This time they are up against a Pacific team that wants to run as well. That's very important here. Pacific ranks 127th in tempo overall. That is much faster than any of UMass' last five opponents. 

UMass ranks 9th in the country in overall pace, and they will continue to push the issue here.

Another important point is the rate at which both teams foul. UMass and Pacific both rank among the top 20 teams in the country in most fouls committed. There should be a bunch of trips to the charity stripe in this one.

UMass thrives on using full court pressure to get steals and quick baskets. Pacific is expected to be without their point guard in this game. Look for plenty of easy baskets and a lot of time spent in the bonus.

I think this one gets to about 150 or higher. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* The line here has gotten so low that I have to make a big play on the over. Idaho is definitely a team that struggles to score, but here they are up against the fastest paced team they have played yet this year.

Washington State isn't likely to let Idaho turn this into a 55-50 type game. Washington State has only played two games all year that finished at less than 150 points! Their last game against New Orleans was the slowest tempo the team has played at this year, and Coach Ernie Kent wasn't happy about it either. They should be pushing the tempo in this one.

Idaho is pretty good defensively, but they are very foul happy. That helps this one a lot since Washington State is great at getting to the line. Both teams rank in the top 100 in the nation in most free throw attempts so far this year.

With one team pushing the pace and both teams getting to the line, I like this over quite a bit at this low of a price.

Take the over big.

*4 Star Play Under* The Wright State Raiders are certainly playing faster this year, but this price is too high for me to pass up taking the under. Loyola Chicago has a long history of slowing the tempo down and winning with strong defense. Loyola doesn't attack the basket, rather they settle for a lot of long range shots.

On the other side, Wright State is very dependent on getting to the foul line. The Raiders aren't very good from the floor, but they are in the top 25 at getting to the free throw line. Loyola Chicago doesn't foul much at all, and with this game at Loyola I think Wright State will get fewer free throws than they have in most games this year.

I think this game ends at about 140 points. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls typically play at a relatively slow pace under Fran Dunphy. In the last couple years, this is a team that has been much more efficient on the defensive end than the offensive end. They are a little better on offense this year, but I still consider Temple a defense first team.

George Washington and Temple both come in solidly in the bottom half of college basketball in terms of tempo. There isn't any reason to expect either team to get out in transition all that much in this game. Instead, it should be played in the halfcourt, where both defenses are very good.

Both of these teams rank in the top 60 in the country in least fouls committed. That's definitely a good thing for the under.

Both of these teams have slowed their pace down of late, and I like that trend. The recency of both teams allows me to project this one at about 67 possessions. At that pace, it would take some very good shooting numbers to send this one past the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes want to run more this year. They rank 97th out of 351 teams in the country in terms of tempo. Utah Valley ranks 4th in the country in tempo, so they are certainly going to try to run in this one. I think we will see a track meet here.

Utah Valley is great from three point range. The Wolverines shoot almost 39% from 3. The one weakness of the Utah defense is defending beyond the arc. I think Utah Valley hurts them a lot from long range tonight.

On the other side, Utah Valley doesn't have nearly enough size on the interior. Utah is a great offensive rebounding team, and I expect a bunch of second chance opportunities for them in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have made it a goal to play much faster this year. The Bonnies are 89th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. Hofstra has always been a team that prefers to run under Coach Joe Mihalich. 

In their last 3 games, Hofstra has scored 89, 88, and 88 points. They should be able to take advantage of a St. Bonaventure defense that gives up a lot of second chance points and fouls a lot as well. Hofstra makes a living at the line, and I expect a lot of points from the line from them here.

St. Bonaventure has scored 102, 89, 81 and 90 points in their last four games. This is a team that should be high scoring all year long.

With tempo and a lot of trips to the line, I see this line a few points too low. Take the over.

*5 Star NFL TOP Totals CRUSHER* The Oakland Raiders are certainly much improved, but it isn't because they have a good defense. Oakland is actually dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. That's a major problem, and I think the Bills can take advantage. 

Buffalo has a really good running game with McCoy, and the Raiders are the third worst team in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Bills running game should bust some big plays here. Tyrod Taylor is more than capable of completing some deep balls as well, and Oakland's secondary is allowing the most yards per completion (12.53) of any team in the NFL. 

Buffalo is first in the NFL in rushing yards per carry at a whopping 5.29 (second is only 4.81). Oakland is fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game. 

These are big play offenses, and I see this total being a few points too low.

The over is 6-1 in the Bills last 7. The over is 18-6-2 in the Raiders last 26 home games. Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a really interesting game to handicap. Savannah State decided before the season to change their style to try to play at the single fastest tempo of any team in the country. They are doing it so far. They are shooting in an average of only 12 seconds each time they get the ball. That is lightning quick.

What has that meant for their scores? Savannah State hasn't played a game all season that has finished below 169 points. They have played three games that have had 200 points or more total.

Oregon should be able to put up 100 points here without even trying to run up the score. The Ducks have been slowed down tempo wise by multiple teams this year, and here is their chance to go back to their normal quick paced ways.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Penn State Nittany Lions have decided to play at a quicker tempo this year. Penn State ranked 311th in the speed at which they put up a shot on average last year. So far this year, they rank 16th in the country. That's a huge difference. They host a Wright State team coached by Scott Nagy, and he is pushing his team to play fast and get to the rim this year.

Wright State is 51st in the nation (out of 351 teams) in overall pace. The Raiders are getting to the line 15th most in the country. This Raiders offense is shooting an impressive 40% from long range as well. 

Six of Wright State's eight games so far this year have gone over this total, and most of them haven't been very close. 

I think we see an uptempo game here. I have this one getting to the mid 150's. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Bonaventure Bonnies are going to play fast this year. This is a team that has a lot of good outside shooters. The Bonnies have scored 81 points or more in four of their six games this year. They'll be up against a Buffalo team that ranks 61st in overall tempo. St. Bonaventure is 83rd in overall tempo. This game should be played at a quick pace.

Buffalo has turnover problems on offense, and I expect St. Bonnie to pick up some full court pressure here to create easy baskets. 

Both of these teams are fouling a lot this year, and a lot of trips to the free throw line should be expected in this one. 

I think this one is several points too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The LA Monroe Warhawks are always a team that likes to slow the game down. Chattanooga has been the same way the last couple years. So far this year, Chattanooga has played several teams that speed up the game and that has skewed their totals higher. When you play Tennessee and North Carolina, that will make your stats a little off. 

LA Monroe won't be pushing the pace here, and I don't think LA Monroe will be able to score very much here against a good defensive team that has a lot more size than they do. 

My number for this game was 131 points. Look for Chattanooga to grab an early lead and win a game that stays under the posted total. Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The Villanova Wildcats have a really efficient offense. This team was ridiculously efficient in the NCAA Tournament last year, and that won them the title. Their effective field goal percentage is even a little bit better so far this year. Villanova can pile up the points per possession. They average almost 1.2 points per possession. 

St. Joe's is way down from a year ago, and I think Villanova will put up a pretty big number here. The Hawks are down most on the defensive end. Martelli's St. Joe's team is playing at a slightly quicker pace than the average team so far this year.

Villanova's defensive efficiency is down just a bit from last year as well.

This kind of total is just too low with a Villanova offense involved and against a team that won't try to stall the entire game. I had this totaled at 137 points. 

Take the over big. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen play at the slowest tempo of any team in the country. Navy ranks 128th in tempo out of 128 teams. How about Temple? They rank 124th out of 128 teams in the nation in tempo. Anytime you get two teams together that play that slowly and you get a total this high, you have to look under.

There are several other key factors here. First, the strength of the Temple defense is their ability to stop the run. In Temple's last four games, they haven't allowed more than 3.58 yards per carry in any of those games. Another benefit for Temple is that they played two option teams this year: Army and Tulane. That helps the prep for the triple option this week.

Navy runs the ball on 81.43% of their plays. Temple runs the ball on 58.68% of their plays. These are two teams who move slowly and run the ball consistently. That means a lot of running clock in this game. 

I understand why the total is high. Navy has scored 66 and 75 points in their last two games. Still, Navy's recent success on offense comes against defenses much weaker than the Temple defense. I think in this case, there is a recency bias that allows the under to have solid value. 

Take the under big here. 

*4 Star Pac 12 Championship CASH* The Washington Huskies and Colorado Buffaloes battle for the Pac 12 crown on Friday night in Santa Clara. There are multiple important factors that make me like the under in this one. 

First, both of these defenses are very strong. Colorado and Washington are tied for 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed this year. They both allow only 4.67 yards per play. Washington is a top 20 defense against both the pass and the run. Colorado is a top three defense in the country against the pass, while they are middle of the pack against the run. 

This works out well in the head to head, because Jake Browning has been throwing it around very well of late, but these Colorado DB's are excellent. I think they'll give Washington's receivers a lot more trouble than they have had most weeks this year. Utah was 13/40 passing with 1 TD and 2 INT's last week against this Colorado secondary. 

On the other side, Colorado's offense plays fast, but they have been slowed down several times this year. They scored only 20 in a win against a bad UCLA team. They put up only 10 against Stanford and 17 against USC.

Another important factor here is the location of this game. It is played in Santa Clara, where the San Francisco 49ers play their home games. This stadium is known for its high grass, and that has been great for unders in the NFL. The under is 22-6 in the 49ers last 28 home games here. 

These teams are accustomed to playing on the turf, and that means we have less favorable scoring conditions here than normal. 

I think we see both defenses play well here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MAC MONEYMAKER Total* The Western Michigan Broncos rank in the bottom 25 in the country in tempo. Ohio ranks in the bottom 50 teams in the country in tempo. So we start with two teams that like to take their time, which is certainly a good thing for the under. 

Ohio's Frank Solich knows Ohio doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Western Michigan in a shootout, and I'm very confident he'll try to keep the ball away from Western Michigan's offense with a slow and steady approach in the running game. Look for Ohio to take a lot of time off the clock between plays, and keep it on the ground.

Western Michigan is running the ball on more than 62% of their plays so far this year. That's a good thing when you consider Ohio ranks 4th in the country in yards per carry allowed at only 3.00 per carry. The Bobcats will give up yards of course, but they are better equipped to slow Western Michigan's running game down than most teams the Broncos have faced this year.

In a game with a lot on the line, things usually tighten up a little bit. The Bobcats would love to spoil the party. The Broncos need a win to likely go to a New Year's Day bowl game. 

Look for a lot of long slow drives that eat up the clock. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes have decided to play much faster this year. They were 279th in tempo on the offensive end (time it took to get a shot up on average) last year. This year they are 84th in the same statistic. 

Montana State ranks 59th in overall tempo so far this year. The Bobcats have played only one game all year that finished below this posted total. Montana State shoots the 3 ball very well, and they put up a bunch of 3's. That isn't such a bad thing against Utah, since the one weakness of the Utes defense the last couple seasons has been defending beyond the arc. 

Utah is the 8th best rebounding team in the country, and they should get a bunch of second chance points in this one. The Utes halfcourt defense is clearly much weaker without Poeltl and Loveridge from last year's team.

I think this one is a few points too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins are playing at the 13th fastest tempo in the country. UCLA has a sensational point guard in Lonzo Ball. Ball is one of the best freshmen in the country, and he is worth watching on television whenever you get a chance. Besides being a tremendous player on his own, Ball has helped this team in a big way by getting Bryce Alford to move back to shooting guard where he is most comfortable. Alford has been forced into the point guard role in the past couple years, and he wasn't that good there. Alford has been great at shooting guard this year, and this UCLA offense has been amazing.

UCLA has scored 99 points or more in four of their seven games this year. The Bruins go up against a UC Riverside team that gave up 85 points to Utah the other night. UCLA should put up 90 or more in this one. 

UC Riverside has consistently been bad at defending the three-point line, and that isn't good against this UCLA team that is shooting 45.2% from distance.

UCLA has allowed 67 points or more in every game so far this year. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes are down a little bit offensively without Angel Rodriguez this year, but they are better on the defensive end. This is a team that looks to slow the tempo down every year, and this year is no different. 

Rutgers has a really good coach in Steve Pikiell. This Scarlet Knights team will be in over their heads here, but this team is much improved. Rutgers is playing very slowly and playing defense this year (something they didn't do a year ago). 

It's hard to imagine either team speeding the game up here. Miami will likely grab the lead and use up the shot clock even more late in the game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Cougars are an underrated team. Houston is 5-0 on the year, and I think they'll make a push to be in or close to in the NCAA Tournament this year. Houston has made a commitment on the defensive end this year. They were 179th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. This year they are 97th. 

Houston also controls the tempo of the game. They haven't played a game with the tempo above 71 possessions yet this year. The Cougars will use up the clock and pass the ball around a lot before putting up a shot. 

LSU is also focusing on defense, and the Tigers offense is a little less efficient without Ben Simmons. The Tigers no longer have the go to guy on offense. 

I had this total at 146 points. I see both defenses as improved and I think this total is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rhode Island Rams are back to playing a much faster paced game this year with EC Matthews healthy again. Matthews is the best player on this team, and he might be the best player in the Atlantic 10 Conference as well. Rhode Island doesn't waste trips on offense. They are great at taking care of the basketball. 

Last year's Valparaiso team ranked in the top ten in the country in defensive efficiency. This year's team ranks 72nd. Vashil Fernandez is gone, and without the great shot blocker by the rim, Valpo's defense is way down from a year ago. The Crusaders still have an elite scorer in Alec Peters, and as a team they are shooting 83.5% from the free throw line. Valpo's tempo is slightly faster than the average tempo in the country this year as well.

This total looks like it was made for a meeting between these two last year. Things have changed. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Detroit Pistons are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in the past five games. Stan Van Gundy is working hard to get his team to take care of the basketball and win with their defense. 

Charlotte plays at an average tempo, but the Hornets have played very good defense of late. In their last three contests, Charlotte ranks fourth best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In that same time frame, the Pistons are 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

The total has moved up to 200, where I'm comfortable taking the under. Two of the three referees in this game are solid under guys (Boland and Callahan) so that is another positive.

The under is 13-3 in the Pistons last 16 when on 2 days of rest. The under is 4-1 in their last 5 road games. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Monday MONEYMAKER* The Utah Jazz play at the slowest pace in the NBA. In fact, they play at the slowest pace in the NBA by more than two possessions per game. Minnesota ranks 21st in the NBA in terms of tempo. This game should be played at a slow pace throughout. 

Minnesota's defense hasn't been what it needs to be so far this year, but with Coach Thibodeau at the helm this defense will get better. I believe we have seen signs of them being better of late. The Timberwolves held Phoenix to only 85 points on Friday night. Phoenix plays very fast, so that was some good defense from Minnesota. Their home game against Boston last week where they allowed 99 was improvement too. Boston averages 104 points per game.

Utah is allowing only 92.8 points per game. In addition to playing slowly, Utah also ranks number one in the NBA in field goal percentage defense. Opponents are shooting only 42.3% against the Jazz.

The under is 5-1 in the Timberwolves last 6 games. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the NBA Northwest. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The San Francisco 49ers play at the fastest pace of anyone in the NFL. The 49ers aren't going to slow down anytime soon. In recent games, the 49ers offense has been improved. Hyde is healthier and Kaepernick is making better decisions with the football. 

Miami's offense has been much better since Ajayi emerged as a force in the backfield. The Dolphins should have a big day on the ground in this one. San Francisco is easily the worst rushing defense in the NFL. The 49ers are giving up 5.17 yards per carry. Ryan Tannehill is capable of making big plays in the passing game when the running game is working well, and I see him getting in some deep passes here.

The Dolphins defense has been significantly worse at home than on the road this year. They are allowing 5.7 yards per play at home this season. 

With the pace of the game and the big play ability, I like this one to go over the posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Top Play of Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't a good team, but when you take a closer look at their stats, you have to be impressed with how hard their defense has played. Jacksonville ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at only 5.0 yards per play. Their numbers are almost identical with Seattle and the LA Rams on defense when it comes to yards per play.Jacksonville is allowing less per pass completion than any other team in the league, and they are allowing a solid 3.94 yards per carry.

The Buffalo defense has improved in recent weeks. They have gotten healthier and they are allowing 5.4 yards per play in their last three games. Last week against Cincinnati, this Bills defense was playing at an elite level. Blake Bortles has regressed as a quarterback, and I don't see him being able to beat this Bills secondary. The Bills defensive line has an edge up against the Jaguars offensive front as well.

Neither of these teams play particularly fast, and I think we'll see both teams struggle to punch it in the end zone here. 

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals should have some serious problems on offense without A.J. Green and Gio Bernard. Andy Dalton and company looked lost on offense in the second half at home against Buffalo last week. Baltimore's defense ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.0. The Ravens have been a better defense than Buffalo all season. The Ravens are playing their best defense of the year lately. Baltimore is allowing only 4.7 yards per play in their last three games.

Baltimore's offense has been terrible this year. The Ravens are 28th in the NFL in yards per play at 5.0. They are at 4.8 yards per play at home this year. What about Cincinnati's offense? The Bengals are at 5.9 yards per play at home and 5.5 on the road. Interestingly, the Bengals are at only 4.7 yards per play in their last three games.

Cincinnati is badly banged up on offense, but their defense is getting healthier. I don't see Baltimore being able to pick up many big plays against this Cincinnati defense this weekend. On the other side, I see Cincinnati's offense getting more conservative and running the ball more. Baltimore is first in the NFL in yards per carry allowed.

The under is 5-1 in the Ravens last 6 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles consistently have one of the very worst defenses in the nation. This is a team that gives up ridiculously high shooting percentages. I don't expect things to be any different for them this season.

The key to this bet is Denver, and the way they are playing under new coach Rodney Billups. Denver was the second slowest paced team in the nation out of 351 teams last year. This year so far they are 81st in the nation in tempo. I think there is some value here until the oddsmakers adjust completely to this huge change. 

Two of Denver's three games have gotten into the 170's this year. I think this is a reasonable price on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tulane Green Wave run the ball on nearly every play. About the only thing this UConn team can do right is stop the run. UConn put up 0 points in last week's loss to Boston College. UConn has now scored a grand total of 3 points in their last 3 games. Read that sentence again and think about it a little bit. That is just insane. 

The Tulane defense is improved this year, and they should hold UConn to a low number. UConn's Bob Diaco knows option offenses well and should be well prepared for the Tulane option attack.

I had this number set at 33. Even with this low total, I'm taking the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans defense was a huge disappointment early in the season. It seems like they have figured things out in recent weeks. Michigan State was strong defensively against Ohio State last week. They pressured J.T. Barrett constantly and make Ohio State work very hard for their yardage. 

Penn State's defense was weaker early in the year, but they had a number of injuries then. The Nittany Lions now rank 22nd in the nation in total defense. They rank 20th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.91. 

Both of these teams like to run it more often than they throw. While Penn State started the season playing a quicker tempo, the Nittany Lions are in the bottom 50 in the country in terms of tempo now. Michigan State is in the bottom 25 in tempo. 

A 10-15 mph wind could discourage passing a little bit here, and I think both defenses come with a strong effort. 

Michigan State is 15-2 ATS in their last 17 as an underdog. Dantonio's team will likely fight hard in their last game of the year. Penn State has a lot on the line here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels offense should be in good hands with freshman Shea Patterson. Patterson was the top ranked quarterback in the country in high school, and I see him doing big things for this team. Mississippi State is a good opponent to get things going against. 

Mississippi State allowed 40 points to Kentucky. They gave up 41 points against Samford! They then allowed 58 points against Arkansas last week. Clearly, this is a weak defense. Look for a big number from Ole Miss in this game. 

Mississippi State's offense has scored 35 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The lone game they didn't score that many was against Alabama.

Both teams play fast and I had this line set at 74 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* This is a really high total, but it still isn't high enough. Wisconsin Green Bay ranks in the top ten in the nation in tempo. Central Michigan coach Keno Davis said before the season he wants his team running and he expects them to finish in the top ten in the nation in points per game. Here's a great chance for them to run, and I think they will.

Green Bay's defensive numbers should slip from last year, and Central Michigan has a lot of shooters on their team. On the other hand, Central Michigan's defensive numbers are consistently near the bottom of the MAC. 

Up and down in this one with a track meet style of game. I think this one tops the 170 point mark. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Admittedly, it's difficult for me to take an under at this low of a level, but I think this is still a good value. My projected number for this game was 32, and 4.5 points of value on this kind of total is a pretty large spread.

These two teams both rank in the bottom 25 in terms of tempo, so we'll see both teams using up the play clock. Another very important factor is the amount of times both teams will be running the ball. Boston College runs it on 63% of their plays, which is one of the highest marks in the country. Wake Forest runs it on 57.4% of their plays. 

How do the two defenses do against the run? Boston College is a very impressive 9th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at only 3.21 allowed per carry. Wake Forest is 55th at 4.18 per carry allowed, though they have been better at home in this area. Wake Forest's average is skewed by allowing 9.35 yards per carry against Louisville, but almost everyone has allowed a lot of explosive running plays to Lamar Jackson and company this year.

A lot of running the football and the clock rolling consistently should mean a low scoring game. Last year's game was a 3-0 final! It won't be that low this time, but I do like it to be very low. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines square off in another edition of "The Game." These two teams truly hate each other. As someone who was born in Columbus, I know the importance of this rivalry.

Ohio State has become very one-dimensional this year. The Buckeyes don't have a downfield passing game. The receivers for Ohio State is their single biggest weakness as a team. Ohio State is running the ball on nearly 59% of their plays this season. 

Michigan ranks 6th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 3.02. The Wolverines defense isn't likely to let Ohio State run all over them here. 

Michigan is running the ball on 61.34% of their plays this year. The Wolverines use a power formation and move methodically, so they can eat up some serious time. Ohio State's pass defense is arguably the best in the country and with Speight injured Michigan will be one dimensional here.

It's hard being so one dimensional against a good defense. It's also important to note that Michigan is allowing opponents to convert on only 21% of their 3rd down conversion attempts. Ohio State's defense is allowing opponents to convert on only 28.83% of their third downs. 

A lot of running the football here. I see several field goals and a close low scoring game. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers host the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday afternoon in a battle for the Old Oaken Bucket. 

When playing against the weakest defenses they have played this year, Indiana has put up some big numbers offensively this year. Indiana scored 42 and had 650 yards against Maryland a few weeks ago. They scored 33 and had 567 yards against Rutgers a couple weeks ago also.

Purdue's defense has allowed at least 44 points in four straight games. In fact, the Boilermakers are giving up exactly 50 points per game in their last four contests. Can Indiana get to 50 or close to it? I think so. Indiana plays at the 13th fastest tempo in the country.

Purdue throws it around. Purdue's passing game ranks 17th in the nation in passing yards per game. They should be able to throw it pretty well here too. The weather conditions are expected to be perfect with a chilly temperature and less than 5 mph winds.

Both passing games put up some big plays here, and both teams play fast. Take the over.

*4 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green offense is terrible this year. North Texas is shooting 29.7% from long range and even more embarrasing 38.4% from two point range. The Mean Green are playing at an average tempo this year on offense, and they are mixing in zone to slow the opposition down.

Niagara has been a slow it down team the last couple years. They look to run the clock and get up a shot late in the timer. The Purple Eagles should slow the the pace of this game down. 

Neither team gets to the line very much and that is a big help here. While only 29% of the bets placed are on the under here, 71% of the money is on the under. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons play at the 24th fastest pace in the league, so they are more of a slow it down type team. The Clippers are 16th in the league in tempo, which is average. 

The Clippers rank second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Pistons rank 6th in defensive efficiency. 

The Clippers do have a very good offense, but the Pistons defense has been excellent at home this year. The under is 7-1 in the Pistons last 8 home games. 

In this one, I'm seeing only 38% of the bets placed on the under, but 71% of the money on the under. This looks like the sharp play.

Two of the three referees in this game (Blair and Kirkland) are two of the best under referees in the league.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Seton Hall Pirates offense should carve up this Quinnipiac defense. Quinnipiac allowed 82 points against Gonzaga last night, and Gonzaga had a bad shooting night. Quinnipiac allowed 86 against Columbia (slow tempo down) and 94 against Vermont (slow tempo team). 

Seton Hall likes to run when they can, and Quinnipiac Coach Tom Moore has said that he wants his team to play very fast this year and they should be in a lot of high scoring contests. 

The fact that this is a neutral venue lowers the total a bit, but I still had this one at 156-157 points. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Wisconsin Milwaukee Panthers didn't return a single player who averaged more than 6 points per game last year. It is showing in the early season results. Milwaukee scored 54 points against Memphis and 59 points against DePaul in their first two games against Division I opponents. 

East Tennessee State put up 96 points against Fordham thanks to shooting better than 60% from the floor. They then scored 107 points against a Detroit team that will rank near the top of the country in terms of pace this year. Last game though, East Tennessee State scored only 59 points against UNC Wilmington.

Milwaukee is going to try to slow the pace of this game down. If you look at E Tennessee State's numbers from last year and this year, they are no faster than an average team, so I'm not sure they push the issue too much either. 

Barring some very high shooting numbers, I think this one stays under this posted total. Take the under. 

*4 Star Apple Cup Total* The Washington Huskies and Washington State Cougars will play for both the Apple Cup and the Pac 12 North Division on Friday. Washington State's defense is much better than it was a few years ago. This is now a unit that is no longer a big weakness. They are opportunistic and have been good at avoiding the big play.

Washington's defense ranks 11th in the nation in yards per play allowed. While Washington State clearly has a good offense, I think Washington's defensive line will be in the backfield a lot in this game. Luke Falk has been hit a lot this year, and I think he'll be sacked and pressured relentlessly in this game. 

In a game of this magnitude, the scoring is typically a little bit lower. Also, the early weather forecast calls for rain and 10-15 mph winds, which would certainly help the under. 

I had this number at 59. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons offense has been amazing with Arion Worthman at quarterback. Worthman is an excellent runner, and he takes this triple option attack to another level. Nate Romine went down with an injury and Worthman stepped in, and it has been an upgrade. In Air Force's last two games, they have rushed for 485 yards and 458 yards. 

Boise State is 68th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 4.46. Boise State allowed 382 rushing yards against the only option attack they have faced this year (New Mexico). The Broncos will be without two of their starting linebackers here, and that's a huge hit in a game like this one where the linebackers will be expected to make a lot of stops in the run game. 

Boise State's offense has a lot of big play ability. Brett Rypien has been getting better as a quarterback, and I see him being able to exploit this Air Force secondary. Air Force just allowed San Jose State to throw for 340 yards last game. Colorado State threw for 374 yards on them in the game before that. Boise should hit some deep passes in this one. 

Both offenses have clear edges in this one, and the weather is expected to be very nice. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game tips off at 11 am in Las Vegas. This is a really tricky spot for both teams. Neither team is accustomed to playing this early in the day, which can be an issue for college kids. Secondly, this is right after the Thanksgiving holiday. While these teams weren't at home for the holiday, it was still an important day and it throws off the normal schedule. 

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks slow the tempo down, and I see them getting their way as far as the pace in this one. Fullerton usually plays against other teams that play quickly, but that isn't the case here. 

I think this total is shaded a few points too high, especially when you consider the situation in this one. Take the under. 

*5 Star College Hoops Thanksgiving Day TOP Play* The Gonzaga Bulldogs have a ton of depth this year. Mark Few said in the preseason that this is as much depth as he has ever had at Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have a tremendous bench that can play at almost as high of a level as the first team. Because of that, Gonzaga is looking to play quicker. The Bulldogs rank 44th in the country out of 351 teams in shortest amount of shot clock used before taking a shot. 

Quinnipiac couldn't score last year, and Coach Tom Moore got frustrated losing 56-52 type games constantly. He decided it was time to change the way the team played. Quinnipiac ranked 225th in time used to put up a shot last year. This year they are 48th quickest. That's a big change. 

Let's take a look at the results from the teams games so far this year. Gonzaga has had their games finish at 161 points, 117 points, and 179 points. The 117 was against San Diego State, who plays slowly and plays excellent defense. Still, Gonzaga has scored 92 and 109 points in their other two contests. 

Quinnipiac allowed 94 points to Vermont and 86 points to Columbia. Neither one of those teams play fast at all. Quinnipiac pushed the tempo and gave up a lot of easy scores. 

I see all this meaning that Gonzaga puts up a really big number here, and I think because of the quickness of the tempo, Quinnipiac will get enough. 

This is a good value based on two teams playing much different than they were a year ago. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted yet. 

I had this total at 161 points. Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Under* Coach Sampson said before the season the area he wanted this Houston team to work on the most was defense. He wants the defense to be much better than they were a year ago. In their two games against Division I opponents, Houston has allowed 56 and 52 points. This is a good spot for them to show the defensive improvement once again.

South Dakota wants to play quickly, and the Coyotes have scored at least 78 points in each of their games thus far. Still, they haven't played a good team yet this year. I think Houston will be a pretty big step up in class.

Houston likes playing at a slow pace, and I think there is a good chance Houston grabs the lead here and controls the tempo of the game. Houston is 301st out of 351 teams in terms of time they take before putting up a shot on average, so they are moving at a very slow tempo. 

This line is inflated by a few points. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Ole Miss Rebels always want to push the tempo. Andy Kennedy is a guy who doesn't believe in slowing the game down. Creighton ranked 38th fastest in terms of pace last year and this year they are 26th out of 351 in the nation.

Creighton has a much improved team this year, and they are going to pile up the points on a lot of teams this year. The Blue Jays are having no problems with the neutral court in St Thomas. In fact, Creighton scored 103 points on Washington State on Friday and 112 points on NC State yesterday. The Blue Jays had a star in Maurice Watson already, and now they added in transfer Marcus Foster. This is one of the best offensive teams in the country.

Ole Miss should be able to score in the paint here. The Rebels have a very good inside player in Saiz. Deandre Burnett is having a breakout year in the backcourt as well.

I think this one tops 170 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco 49ers are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL, and it isn't close. Chip Kelly's team is going to keep playing the same way. The offense is getting a little better as the season moves along, but this San Francisco defense is just terrible. The 49ers defense was never good this year, but after injuries they have really fallen off badly. 

San Francisco is giving up 6.0 yards per play on the year. That is 28th out of 32 teams in the NFL. The 49ers are allowing 6.7 yards per play in their last 3 contests, which ranks dead last in the NFL. New England is middle of the pack at 5.5 yards per play allowed. 

The Patriots are 6th in the NFL in yards per play on offense at 6.0. That includes the time without Brady though, and this is clearly a top three offense in the NFL. San Francisco is averaging 4.9 yards per play on the year, but in their last 3 contests they have gained a very respectable 5.7 yards per play.

In the 49ers last 8 games, only one has fallen below this number. New England should put up a big number here, and the 49ers should do enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* In this one we have a battle between two of the best defenses in the NFL. Arizona is first in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.7. Minnesota is fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.9. It all starts up front for both of these defenses. I see both defensive lines having the upper hand against the opposing offensive front.

Sam Bradford hasn't done a terrible job in this Vikings system, but he can't make plays on his own. The Vikings running game has been one of the worst in the NFL. The Cardinals should get a good pass rush here. Carson Palmer is having a disappointing season for the Cardinals. The Cardinals have leaned on their running game of late, but I expect the Vikings front seven to slow down Arizona's rushing attack.

While only a little more than 50% of the bets placed on this game have been on the under, about 90% of the money is on the under. The under looks like the sharp side here. Take the under.

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Indianapolis Colts beat the Tennessee Titans 34-26 in Nashville in their meeting earlier this year. This game will be played in the dome at Indy, where the conditions are even more favorable for an over. 

Andrew Luck should find plenty of open receivers against a Titans secondary that is worse than the league average. As long as Luck has time to throw, he can pick this team apart. The Colts offensive line has been slightly better in recent weeks.

Marcus Mariota has played much better in recent weeks. This Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Titans should be able to run it and throw it against this unit.

The Titans are 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Colts are 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. While the public does like the over, the sharps like it as well. This is a rare situation where both the public and sharp are on the same side.

The over is 6-0 in the Titans last 6 vs. an AFC foe. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing more than 250 yards passing last game. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AFC South. The over is 4-0 in the Colts last 4 vs. the AFC South. A 29-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams allowed 485 yards on the ground last week against Air Force. They allowed 7.13 yards per carry. This week they'll play another option team in New Mexico. New Mexico doesn't run exactly the same offense, but the Lobos are actually averaging more rushing yards per game than is Air Force so far this year. There's no reason to believe Colorado State will be able to slow them down here.

On the other side, New Mexico's defense isn't good. They are allowing 5.97 yards per play this year, which is 89th in the country. Colorado State's offense is playing really well of late. In their last 3 games, Colorado State has scored at least 37 points in each contest. The Rams have a balanced offense that should get some big plays against this New Mexico defense.

The over is 10-2 in the Lobos last 12 games. Take the over here. 

*3 Star Oklahoma/West Virginia Primetime CASH* The West Virginia Mountaineers defense has been underrated all year. West Virginia has a balanced defense that hasn't had any really bad outings. Their win over BYU was the worst showing, but in all they have fared well against a schedule full of teams with good offenses. 

Oklahoma's defense is good against the run, and terrible against the pass. The thing that pushes me over the top on playing this one is the weather. The local weather forecasts are calling for 25-30 mph wind with gusts even higher during this game. There could be some snow showers as well. The weather here limits the exposure of the Oklahoma defense against the pass. I don't think either team can do much throwing it around with this kind of weather.

Another interesting statistic here is how the defenses have avoided giving up long running plays. West Virginia has only allowed two rushing plays of 30 yards or more all year. Oklahoma has only allowed three. West Virginia is 4th in the nation in that stat. Oklahoma is 12th. 

I see this as a game where the total is too high considering the circumstances. This game is very important to both teams and they have to play it safe with the weather conditions.

The under is 13-4 in West Virginia's last 17 home games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Red HOT CASH* The MTSU Blue Raiders shocked the basketball world by stunning Michigan State last March. They host Tennessee State for this one. This is an intrastate battle that should be a pretty heated contest. 

Dana Ford coaches Tennessee State, and in his first year at the program the Tigers went from 5 wins to 20 wins. Ford coached under Gregg Marshall at Wichita State, and he is preaching the importance of defense to his team. It has been working. Tennessee State is 3-0, and they haven't allowed more than 65 points in a game this year.

MTSU is always a good defensive team under coach Kermit Davis. These two teams met last year and the final score was 69-66.

Tennessee State's three games so far this year have finished at 142, 134, and 130 points. I think this total is a few points too high.

Look for the defenses to come through in this one. Take the under.  

*4 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs and USF Bulls both play at a quick tempo. They both rank in the top 36 in the country in pace. 

SMU's defense is better than they were a year ago, but they gave up more than 300 yards on the ground against Tulsa. USF's ground attack is #1 in the nation in yards per carry at 6.66 yards per carry. Why is USF so good on the ground? They have a good offensive line to start with. Then, they have both Flowers (QB) and Mack (RB) who are both excellent runners in the backfield at all times. I expect both of them to have a big game here. 

USF's defense has regressed in a big way from a couple years ago. This defense is now a major weakness. SMU's offense has improved as their young quarterback has gotten more time in the system. South Florida is giving up 31.4 points per game. SMU is giving up 32.5 points per game.

With a quick tempo and weather that looks perfect, I think this game ends up being very high scoring. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish host the Virginia Tech Hokies in this one. A big reason for this play for me is the weather forecast. The sustained wind is expected to be 20-25 mph with wind gusts of up to 40 mph during this game. There is also a 70% chance of rain mixed with snow. 

Snow or rain by themselves aren't as bad for scoring as some think, but that combined with high wind is very hard to score in. The offenses here will be much more cautious than normal. 

Virginia Tech's defense has been very good all year, and if you look at the Notre Dame defense closely you'll see they have played much better in recent weeks.

Neither team has been pushing the issue as far as pace lately, and I see both teams running the ball a bunch through the bad weather. The clock keeps ticking here. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Tulane Green Wave run the option under new coach Willie Fritz this year. They are running the ball on 65% of their plays. Temple is a run heavy team as well. The Owls are running it on 57.5% of their plays. That means a bunch of running clock in this game.

Temple's defense has been tremendous of late. The Owls allowed just one yard in the second half two weeks ago against Cincinnati. They allowed 0 points last week against UConn. The strength of the Temple defense is their front seven. Temple is holding opponents to only 3.78 yards per carry. 

The Tulane defense is very solid as well. Tulane is allowing only 3.83 yards per carry. The Green Wave should be able to slow the Temple offense which is only mediocre.

The tempo of both teams is slow. Tulane is slower than average and Temple is very slow. With both teams running the ball into the strength of the defense, I think there is a lot of value on this one. My numbers came to 42 points for this total. Take the under big! 

*4 Star Play Under* Both Northwestern and Minnesota are better on the defensive side of the ball than they are on offense. These two teams have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. In fact, the last five meetings between these two have finished at 41 points or less.

Minnesota likes to run the football a lot, because they don't have an accurate passer. The Northwestern defense is strong against the run. 

Northwestern's Clayton Thorson is very inconsistent, and Minnesota has a solid secondary to slow him down. 

The under is 10-4 in Northwestern's last 14 games.  I had this number at 42 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Panthers are coming off a huge upset at Clemson. Duke is coming off a big upset over their rivals from North Carolina. Pittsburgh's defense has been very good against the run this year. They are allowing only 3.30 yards per carry on the ground. Duke's defense is middle of the pack at 4.27 yards per carry allowed. 

The thing that should help both defenses in this one is the weather. Rain changing to light snow showers is forecast for this one. The wind is expected to pick up during the game, and the average forecast calls for winds of 25 mph or so during this one. That's plenty to slow down the passing attacks. 

With a total of 63, it is difficult to get above the total without big plays or a lot of passing. Pitt's defense gives up a lot of long passing plays, but I don't think Duke can do much throwing it deep with this weather. The defenses should be ready for the run.

The elements play a key role as this one stays under the posted total. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs defense showed what they are made of in last week's win over Auburn. Georgia has now allowed 231 yards or less in three of their last four games (Florida, Vandy, and Auburn). La Lafayette has struggled inside the Sun Belt on offense, so it is hard to imagine them getting much of anything going in this game. In fact, I'd be surprised if Lafayette tops the 10 point mark here. 

Georgia doesn't really have any major motivation to run the score up here. Also, La Lafayette does have an excellent run defense. Georgia runs the ball a bunch, and they'll try to run it here. The Bulldogs are 6th out of 128 teams in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 3.06 yards per carry. 

Georgia slows the tempo of the game down, and once they get their nice lead I think this game slows to a crawl. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game is expected to be played in some terrible weather. East Lansing is expected to have a mixture of rain and snow with winds of 30 to 35 miles per hour in this one. This Michigan State defense has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks. It surprised me a lot when they were so bad early in the year with a defensive guy like Dantonio as their head coach. That has improved of late. The Ohio State defense has been tremendous all year. Ohio State's secondary is one of the best in the country, and the front seven has been very good as well.

Ohio State and Michigan State are both playing at a tempo slower than the average team in the nation. Ohio State's offense has looked good in the last couple weeks, but this offense has struggled several times this year. 

I think both offenses will be one dimensional with winds of 30 to 35 mph. It will be very hard to throw it here. I think we see a hard fought low scoring game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Thursday Night THUNDER* Houston's Greg Ward Jr. is banged up pretty badly right now, but he'll try to play in this one. There's no doubt that he isn't himself, and that has slowed this Houston offense down badly. 

One thing that most people forget is how good this Houston defense is this season. Houston is second in the nation in yards per carry allowed at only 2.76 yards per carry for opponents. Louisville is obviously a run heavy offense, and I think this Houston defense is much better equipped to slow down Lamar Jackson than the average defense. 

Houston's tempo is slower this year than last. Louisville's tempo is slower than the average tempo in the country. These are two offenses who are capable of big plays, so I understand the total being pretty high, but this one is set several points too high. 

Also important to note is the fact that the weather is calling for 10-15 mph winds and a chance of rain in this one. That isn't severe weather, but it is enough to make me like this play a little bit more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. Memphis ranks 27th out of 30 teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Grizzlies scored only 88 points against the Clippers in their first meeting this year, and I don't think they'll get above that number here either.The Clippers defense has been at its best at home so far this season.

Also, consider the pace that each of these teams are playing at right now. The Grizzlies play at 25th fastest pace out of 30 teams. The Clippers are at #15, right in the middle. With the Grizzlies offensive woes and the Clippers defensive greatness so far this year, it's hard to imagine the total being lined above 200, but it is. 

The under is 20-6 in the Clippers last 26 home games. The under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The UCSB Gauchos have gone with a slow paced offense ever since Bob Williams has been at the school. Williams uses a deliberate style on offense, and he has good guards who should be able to both control the tempo and take care of the basketball. 

San Francisco let Rex Walters go at the end of last year, and now Kyle Smith is the head coach here. Smith was the coach at Columbia. In each of his last four years at Columbia, his teams finished among the 40 slowest paced teams in the country (out of 351). He was quoted as saying before the season that he expects this Dons team to play at "a fairly slow pace."

One thing I've learned over the years of handicapping college hoops is almost no coach likes to admit their team is going to slow the game down. Everyone wants to say they'll play at a faster pace, even if that doesn't end up being the case. Smith was open about his team slowing the game down, which tells me a lot. 

In their first game, San Francisco played an 82-80 game against UIC, but that was about their opponent. UIC wants to make their games frenetic, and they were able to do it.

UCSB played to a sloppy 74-60 loss at home to Nebraska Omaha in their first game. The important part of that is UCSB definitely slowed the game down against an Omaha team that ranks in the top ten in tempo every year.

 Neither team should be pushing the pace here. I think we get this high of a line thanks to an overreaction to the San Francisco score in game one. Take the under big! 

*My number here was 138. This line has jumped and then dropped back down later today. I recommend this for a 5 star play as low as 142. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Under* The LSU Tigers beat Wofford 91-69 in their season opener. Wofford slowed the pace down successfully in that game, but LSU scored an amazing 1.36 points per possession. Wofford slowed the pace down to only 67 possessions. 

Southern Miss played almost as slow as anyone in the nation last year. The Golden Eagles will try their hardest to keep the tempo down in this one, because that is their only chance to stay close. Southern Miss played 28 games against Division I teams last year, and only three of them went over this posted total. Only two of them went over this posted total in regulation. Southern Miss didn't have a single game that went above 138 points in non-conference play last year. 

LSU will try to push the tempo, but I do expect them to get a big lead here, so later in the game they should be satisfied to slow things down a bit and take it easy on Southern Miss a little bit.

This number is too high for me to pass up. Take the under. 

*5 Star College Hoops TOP Play Total* The Wisconsin Green Bay Phoenix shot the ball quicker than any other team in the country last year. Green Bay only used up 13.5 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. That's blazing quick tempo, and Coach Linc Darner wants to do exactly the same thing this year. In fact, he said he believes this year's team can be just as good on offense. 

Green Bay did lose a couple very important players in Carrington Love and Jordan Fouse. These guys were really good on both ends, but before this season, Coach Darner said the end he is concerned about is the defense. He believes he has the guys to keep the scoring going, but he isn't sure if this team can defend as well. 

Pacific has a new coach in Damon Stoudemire this year. He is well known from his playing days at Arizona and in the NBA. He wants to bring an uptempo style of play to Pacific. They will definitely get their chance to run as quick as they want to go in this one. Pacific just gave up 119 points to UCLA, so it is fair to say they have plenty of work to do on defense.

Both teams want to push the pace in a big way. With Pacific changing the way they play, I think this number is a good value. I expect a very high scoring contest. Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The NC Central Eagles have played a very slow paced style and tried to win with strong defense as long as LeVelle Moton has been their head coach. NC Central successfully slowed Marshall down to a 81-69 final in their opener. Marshall will play as fast as anyone in the country this year, and that's a very low scoring game for them. 

Ohio State scored 78 points in their opener, but that was because they shot 10/18 from 3 point range. The Buckeyes didn't try very hard to push the tempo in that game. 

Ohio State clearly has a big talent advantage here, and they should win comfortably. If you look back to last year, Ohio State was fairly consistent at taking their foot off the gas when winning big. Their big wins over Mt. St Mary's, Grambling, and South Carolina State were all played to a final total of 137 or lower.

Now that this number has been bet up, I see value on the under. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets should finish the season near the top of the list in terms of tempo in the NBA. Houston has played multiple teams of late who have looked to slow them down. They have played San Antonio twice and played Dallas twice as well. Those teams weren't wanting to run, and the Spurs play great defense. 

Now, Houston has a lowered number on the posted total because their recent games have been lower scoring. This time they get to take on the Philadelphia 76ers. Philly prefers a quick pace as well, and the 76ers are bad on defense. Houston should put up a big number in this one. 

The Philadelphia offense has been really inefficient this year, but they get to go up against a Houston defense that ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Philly should be able to get their points in this game as well.

Recency bias has led to this total being set a little too low. 

The over is 5-0 in the 76ers last 5 road games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 when playing on one day of rest. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more last game. A 14-0 angle. Take the over.