*4 Star Play Under* The over is 6-1 in the CFL so far this year. That has the oddsmakers and bettors overreacting here. This total has moved too high.

It is certainly early in the season, but these are the 1st and 2nd ranked defenses in the CFL in yards allowed per game so far this year. Both of these defenses should be improved from last year.

Early in the year in the CFL, the under has generally done well. That has especially been the case when the total is set at a high level. Since 2005- in game number 1 through 6 of the season with a total of 53.5 or higher, the under is an impressive 72-46 (61%). Conference games in this same time frame with a total of 52.5 or higher are 56-26 (68.3%) to the under. This game meets both of these systems.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* In the last 30 days, the Rockies and Dodgers have been hitting the cover off the ball. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average during that time. Who is second? The Los Angeles Dodgers. These are two top offenses. They both are deep offensively, and they have quite a bit of power.

Dodger Stadium is much more friendly to hitters during day games. With a breeze blowing out at about 8 mph for this one the weather will be a positive.

Paul Emmel is one of the better over umpires in the league, and he can really make it tough on the starting pitcher.

Antonio Senzatela's numbers are the worst they've been in his career so far this season. Senzatels is getting less than 7% swinging strikes, and he is giving up more hard contact. That's a recipe for disaster against this strong Dodgers lineup.

Kenta Maeda is inconsistent and the Dodgers middle relief has been a weakness all season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. They have definitely cooled off offensively. 

Oakland ranks right in the middle of the pack offensively. The A's aren't as good offensively at home, because their home park is very tough on hitters. 

Neither of these teams have been good at drawing walks of late. Jeremie Rehak is the umpire behind the plate for this one, and his numbers point to him being a clear positive for the under. Rehak ranks in the top five of all umpires in least walks per game. He also ranks in the top five for lowest OBP for the offenses. Rehak is a strike caller.

Mike Fiers knows how to pitch at Oakland Coliseum. Fiers had a 2.91 ERA with a 0.882 WHIP at home last year. So far this year, Fiers has a 2.47 ERA and a great 0.87 WHIP at home. 

Chirinos is a pretty good pitcher as well. He has had a couple bad outings, but on the whole he has done well based on limiting hard contact.

The under is 31-14-1 in the Rays last 46 road games vs. a team with a winning record at home. The under is 5-2 in Fiers' last 7 home starts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Thursday's BEST Bet* Charlie Morton and Frankie Montas have both really impressed me this season. Morton has the highest swinging strike rate of his career. He has a 2.37 ERA and a 2.88 FIP. He has proven himself to be an excellent starter.

Frankie Montas has a 2.85 ERA and a 2.89 FIP. Montas has seen his swinging strike rate jump from 8.6% last year to 11.0% this year. Montas is also allowing softer contact this year. 

The Rays and A's are middle of the pack offenses. Oakland has been great on the road on offense this year, but at home they have struggled. The same was true a year ago. 

The Rays have played a lot of low scoring games against quality teams.

Both of these teams have top ten bullpens and I see this one being low scoring throughout.

The under is 36-17-2 in the Rays last 55 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather isn't ideal at Wrigley Field for this one, but that is why the total is 9 at not higher.

Walker Lockett was called up from Triple A to make this start. I don't know why he was called up, but here he is. Lockett has been bad in Triple A for 3 straight seasons. How bad? He has a FIP of almost exactly 5 in Triple A. Also, Lockett is striking out only 3.28 batters per nine innings in Triple A. Wow. Lockett's numbers project as a guy who will struggle in a big way in the majors.

Tyler Chatwood gets a spot start for the Cubs with Kyle Hendricks injured right now. Chatwood was terrible as a starter last year. While he will occasionally throw a good game, Chatwood is far too wild. His inability to find the strike zone generally gets him in big trouble. Chatwood had more walks than strikeouts last year. He has a better ERA than last year, but his advanced numbers aren't much different than last season. 

The Cubs have a top five offense against right handed pitching. The Mets are 10th in the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Colorado ranks first in the majors in weighted on base average in the majors at .371. Blackmon has been the hottest hitter in baseball. This Rockies lineup has tremendous numbers against Robbie Ray as well. The Rockies have a .442 wOBA in a pretty large sample size against Ray. They have actually hit him even better at Chase Field than Coors Field. 

Jeff Hoffman was really bad in Triple A earlier this year. He has pitched a bit better of late, but I still don't trust him at all. Hoffman is up against an underrated offense. The emergence of Ketel Marte as a star has really helped the Diamondbacks this season. Hoffman had an ERA of 7.57 in 7 appearances in Triple A earlier this year. He isn't the answer.

John Tumpane is behind home plate and he is one of the better over umpires in baseball.

Trevor Story is likely to miss this game, but that is more than factored in here with a total of only 9.

The over is 30-13-1 in Ray's last 44 home starts.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves have the hottest offense in baseball. In the last 14 days, Atlanta has a wOBA of nearly .400. The Braves have a really deep lineup, and they should make Steven Matz work really hard. Atlanta rates 8th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. 

Max Fried started the season out pitching much better than expected, but he has come down to earth in a big way of late. Fried has allowed 17 runs in his last 20 innings pitched. Fried has allowed more hard contact and has been working from behind in the count. The Mets rank 7th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

The heat should help the ball fly well in Atlanta. The Braves bullpen has been used heavily of late, and the Mets bullpen isn't good at all.

The over is 21-5-1 in the Braves last 27 games vs. a team with a losing record. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The wind is blowing out at about 10 or 11 mph in Washington. This is a park where the wind blowing out makes a big difference. We saw how big of a difference that can make on Saturday when the ball was flying extremely well.

Archie Bradley isn't a guy I trust, and he now starts. Godley will throw behind him, and he has been in bad form. The Nats offense has heated up a lot of late.

Anibal Sanchez has been solid lately, but he has faced some weaker offenses. I don't think he is nearly as good as he has looked recently. 

Favorable conditions and two offenses swinging the bat well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have a strong "opener" going here in Stanek. He fits this role very well. Jalen Beeks has been throwing it really well also and he is the pitcher who will come in after Stanek.

Griffin Canning looks like a good big league pitcher. He has a nice arsenal of pitches at his disposal and he can limit hard contact.

In 10 of the Tampa Bay Rays last 12 games, the total has finished at 8 or lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Finals Game 6 CASH* The Golden State Warriors stayed alive by winning Game 5 in Toronto. That was a game with all kinds of drama. The Raptors made a big run and appeared to be on the brink of winning it, but then the Warriors made a run to finish the game and won by two. 

Kevin Durant's injury was painful to watch, and it was a shame to see his season end in that fashion. Durant's absence hurts the Warriors a lot on offense. They are clearly still a very good offense with Curry and Thompson, but Durant can be unguardable. Toronto can now try to take their chances on leaving Green and Iguodala open from long range.

Toronto's supporting cast has been inconsistent on offense at times throughout the offseason. Leonard should have another good game here, but we will see what the Raptors do from long range.

These two teams are both very underrated on the defensive end. Golden State's defense was excellent in the closing minutes in Game 5. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism, and they are a tough matchup.

The pace has gotten slower in each of the last three games. As the game means more, things usually slow down. The tempo started at about 100 possessions per game, and the last two games have been 94.5 and 94 possessions. I wouldn't see any reason to expect a faster paced game here. It's a potential close out game and these have been very strongly toward the under in the past decade. 

Look for a hard fought game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brad Peacock is an underrated pitcher. Peacock has started 11 games for the Astros this year. He has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of those 11 starts so far this year. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of those starts. Peacock has been throwing the ball really well of late. He has a FIP of less than 1.00 in four of his last six starts. This is a guy who can miss bats, and I really like his form of late.

Freddy Peralta is far more inconsistent than Peacock. Peralta is capable of throwing an absolute gem. He's also capable of getting hit around. I'll take my chances here largely because of the Astros injury issues. Without Correa, Springer, and Altuve this Astros offense isn't even close to as good. Houston has scored 4 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 contests.

These are two excellent bullpens. When I see a total of 9 or higher with two very good bullpens I'm typically looking toward the under.

The under is 17-7 in the Astros last 24 games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* In the last 30 days, the Chicago White Sox rank 28th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Kansas City Royals rank 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in wOBA during that time. Neither of these teams are any good offensively.

Lucas Giolito has been lights out of late. Giolito had been a very highly touted pitcher, but he had some pitches that were getting blasted. Giolito has simplified things and is using an improved changeup to get a lot more swings and misses. Giolito had a 8.3% swinging strike rate last year. His swinging strike rate is a whopping 13.3% so far this year.

Brad Keller is a mediocre pitcher, but he is facing a very weak lineup here. Keller has had a lot of success against them in the past. The White Sox have only a .267 wOBA against Keller in 126 AB's. 

Giolito has dominated the Royals too. Kansas City has only a .238 wOBA against Giolito in 92 AB's. 

The wind will be blowing in about 8 mph here which helps too.

The under is 6-0 in Giolito's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in Keller's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Keller's last 4 starts vs. the White Sox. A combined 24-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees meet the Cleveland Indians tonight in Cleveland. The weather can play a pretty big role in how things go at Progressive Field. With the breeze coming in from right field tonight at about 12 mph throughout this game, it is a big help to the pitching staffs.

German is a solid starter for the Yankees. He has a 3.66 ERA and a 3.82 SIERA. German has an impressive 14.3% swinging strike rate. The Indians swing and miss a lot, and I think he matches up pretty well here.

Plesac starts for the Indians, and he has been great in his first two starts. He can't keep pitching as well as he did in those two games, but he has excellent control and the conditions are favorable tonight.

These two bullpens are excellent. The Indians are a top five bullpen in baseball, and the Yankees are a top three bullpen in the majors.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* David Hess is one of the worst starting pitchers in all of baseball. Hess has a 7.36 ERA so far this year, and his FIP is is 7.10 so this hasn't just been about bad luck. Hess allows all kinds of very hard contact. His average exit velocity allowed is 91.6 mph. Batters have barreled up Hess on 15.3% of batted balls. In this kind of a sample size, I believe this is the worst I've ever seen from a big league starter. Hess isn't fooling anyone.

Ariel Jurado starts here for the Rangers. Jurado has a solid 2.80 ERA, but his FIP is 3.80 and his SIERA is all the way down at 4.23. Jurado is allowing a BABIP of only .272. That won't continue. He will also give up more home runs than he has thus far. 

Both of these bullpens are really bad, and they are both likely to be in the game for quite a while with this matchup of starting pitchers.

The wind is blowing out at about 8 mph and the game time temperature will be about 90 degrees. That is definitely a plus for the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Indians offense started the season out in terrible fashion, but they have been respectable of late. Cleveland is 26th in wOBA for the year, but they are 17th in the last 30 days. The Twins are first in the majors in wOBA for the year and 1st in the last 30 days as well.
Martin Perez isn't a guy I trust. Perez walks too many guys, and his SIERA of 4.64 this year suggests he has been very fortunate. 

The Indians are going with a bullpen game as far as the pitching lineup. This Twins offense is tremendous and I don't think the Indians have enough bullpen depth to keep them quiet. 

The wind is also forecast to be blowing out at about 8 mph here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox have been better than expected this year. The emergence of Lucas Giolito as a very good starting pitcher has really helped this team. Giolito has always been a very highly touted pitcher. Now, he has backed off on the use of his curveball and it has really helped him a lot. Giolito has a 2.86 ERA and a 2.87 FIP on the season. 

The Indians have a bottom ten offense in the majors. Cleveland is very inconsistent. The Indians aren't getting the production they need from Jose Ramirez, and this lineup lacks depth.

Plesac starts for the Indians here. He is a young pitcher who doesn't walk many people, and he wasn't intimidated by starting against a great Red Sox offense in Fenway in his first start. That was impressive. 

The White Sox offense has scored 4 runs or less in 14 games since May 14. This is one of the 3 or 4 weakest offenses in the majors.

Giolito has allowed a total of 8 runs in his last 7 starts and both offenses have struggled. Sunday has been the best day for unders in MLB by a wide margin.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Justin Verlander is still one of the best pitchers in baseball. He isn't as good as his ERA so far this season would indicate. There is some regression coming, but he is still going to be very good. In fact, his swinging strike rate is at 15.3% which is elite. Verlander is still fooling a lot of hitters.

Brett Anderson is an inconsistent pitcher, but he has thrown the ball well of late. Anderson is streaky and he has a chance here against an Astros lineup that is badly banged up. The Astros rank 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average, but they are only 25th in wOBA in the last 14 days. They are without Altuve, Springer, and Correa. 

The A's bullpen is a top 10 bullpen in the majors. The Astros bullpen is probably the best bullpen in all of baseball. 

Houston has scored 4 runs or less in 9 of their last 12 games. The Astros are likely to play in quite a few low scoring games without their offensive stars.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Athletics rank 15th in weighted on base average. They are without Khris Davis which definitely hurts their offense.

The Houston Astros rank 2nd in the majors in wOBA, but their offense is severely shorthanded right now. The Astros are without Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Carlos Correa. That is 3 of their top 4 hitters who are out right now. 

Mike Fiers isn't a great pitcher, but he is much better when pitching at home. This is clearly a pitchers park, and he has been able to use that to his advantage. Fiers had a 2.81 ERA last year at home and he has a 2.67 ERA at home so far this season.

Brad Peacock is a guy who has good strikeout stuff. Peacock has multiple plus pitches, and I think he has a lot of upside.

The Astros rank 1st in the majors in bullpen FIP. The Athletics rank 7th. These are two quality bullpens.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dakota Hudson has potential. He has been inconsistent, but as he has thrown his slider more often in recent outings his performance has improved quite a bit. After having a FIP of higher than 10 in three of his first four starts of the season, Hudson has improved drastically of late. Hudson has a FIP of 3.95 or lower in five of his last six starts. 

Jerad Eickhoff has been solid this year. He isn't spectacular, but he can generally hold his own. Eickhoff is much better when pitching from ahead in the count.

Kerwin Danley is one of the best under umpires in baseball. He has called a whopping 65.99% of pitches a strike so far this year. Danley has been an under machine for the last few seasons. He should help both pitchers in this one.

This is a get away day game and that can usually mean a key hitter or two is out of the lineup. 

The under is a whopping 48-22 in the Cardinals last 70 in game 3 of a series. Those are often get away days and the Cardinals sit out regulars pretty often in these spots.

This number has gotten too high for me to pass up.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Their wOBA sits at a terrible .256 during that time. The White Sox have scored 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 12 games. 

Kansas City ranks 24th in wOBA in the last 14 days. The Royals offense isn't as good as they looked earlier this year. 

Lucas Giolito has been absolutely dealing for the White Sox this year. Giolito has a 2.77 ERA, and it isn't a fluke. He has a 2.81 FIP. His strikeout rate was 6.49 batters per nine innings last year, but he is striking out 10.21 batters per nine innings this year. Giolito is throwing harder than ever, and his slider and change up have been excellent. The Royals lineup has 9 hits in 73 at bats against Giolito.

Brad Keller isn't tremendous by any means, but he is a steady guy who the White Sox hitters have only a .186 average against. He can have trouble finding the strike zone, but the White Sox haven't been good at all at drawing walks.

The under is 6-2-1 in the last 9 games between these teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Bucks/Raptors Game 6 CASH* The Raptors have stunned just about everyone by winning three straight in this series. Toronto has really picked up their intensity on the defensive end. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism and they have made it very difficult on the Bucks to get into an offensive rhythm the last few games.

Milwaukee ranked number one in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They have great shot blockers and good perimeter defenders as well. The Raptors have knocked down a lot of long range jumpers in the last couple games.

The pace of these games has gotten slower by the contest. The tempo in game 4 was 96 possessions and in game 5 it was 95 possessions. As the games get more important, we often see the pace slow down. 

This is a potential close out game, and these have been great under plays in the postseason in the last decade in the NBA.

I'll say the pace sits at 95 possessions or so again here. If both teams averaged around 1.10 points per possession (slightly above average in the NBA postseason), that would put the projected total at 209 points. 

This is a very important game for both teams and I would expect a lot of intensity on defense.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Dodgers pitching staff has been amazing of late. The Dodgers pitching staff has a ridiculous 1.74 ERA over the last two weeks. Rich Hill threw the best he has all year in his last outing at Cincinnati. He threw a little harder than he had been, and he located his pitches very well.

The Rays offenses has come back to earth of late. They do have quite a few injuries, so that is part of the problem. Tampa Bay has scored 3 runs or less in seven of their last ten games. 

Tampa Bay starts opener Ryan Stanek here and Chirinos is likely to follow him. Stanek has been great in the opener role. Chirinos has quality stuff and has thrown his best of late.

Bill Miller is the umpire here and he has the second highest called strike percentage of any umpire in the majors in the last five years according to my umpire database. He's clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds offense ranks 26th in the majors in weighted on base average. They are 27th against right handed pitching. With Joey Votto struggling right now, the Reds really need a lot of production from Yasiel Puig (injured and questionable/doubtful to start here) or someone like Scooter Gennett who is on the disabled list with an injury. The Reds won 3-0 last night, but they had only 4 hits in that game.

The Brewers offense is a good one, but they are up against a very good young pitcher in Luis Castillo. Castillo's changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball. Castillo has a 1.90 ERA and a 2.62 FIP this year. Castillo won't keep a 1.90 ERA and he is due some regression, but only 28% of batted balls off Castillo have been hard hit this year. That's one of the lowest percentages of any starter in the majors, and he should continue to be a very good pitcher.

Zach Davies also limits hard contact, and he's up against a struggling Reds offense.

These are two strong bullpens and neither of them have been used all that much in recent days. Mike Muchlinski is behind the plate and he is a strike caller who should help the pitchers here.

The under is 7-0 in Castillo's last 7 road starts. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. an NL Central foe. The under is 6-0 in the Brewers last 6 vs. an NL Central opponent. The under is 4-0 in Davies' last 4 home starts. The under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. A combined 38-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Padres send Chris Paddack to the mound here. Paddack has been amazing so far this year. Paddack enters with a 1.99 ERA and a 2.95 FIP. He has fantastic control and has an impressive 11.7% swinging strike rate. 

Luke Weaver starts for the Diamondbacks. Weaver hasn't gotten a ton of publicity this year, but he has been excellent. Weaver has a 3.16 ERA and a 3.11 FIP. Weaver has an 11.1% swinging strike rate. Weaver was an extremely highly touted prospect for the Cardinals. It never worked out in St. Louis for him, but he seems to be putting it all together in Arizona. 

The Padres have a top 5 bullpen in the majors. The Diamondbacks bullpen is a league average bullpen.

We know San Diego plays in a park that is very friendly to pitchers. 

Arizona's offense is elite against lefties (3rd in wOBA in the majors), but they are mediocre against righties (15th in wOBA). San Diego is 15th in wOBA against lefties and 25th in wOBA against righties.

This one sits above the key MLB totals number of 7. I'll take the value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins rank 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Seattle ranks 9th in this same statistic. 

Minnesota's lineup is very deep, and I would expect them to get quite a few scoring chances here. Marco Gonzales' fastball velocity is down about 2 mph from last year. Gonzales has been struggling in recent starts, and I'm wondering if he has some kind of injury. I see him as vulnerable here.

Martin Perez has a minor foot injury, but will start here. Perez may be improved, but I don't think he is as good as his numbers so far this year would indicate.

The Mariners rate 5th worst in the majors in bullpen SIERA. This team was strong in the bullpen last year, but they don't have enough depth this season. The Twins are a mediocre bullpen at best as well.

The over is 7-1-1 in the Twins last 9 road games vs. a left handed starter. The over is 14-3 in the Mariners last 17 home games vs. a left handed starter.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Rangers and Kansas City Royals have both struggled against left handed pitching at times, but both have been excellent against right handed pitching. Both starters here are subpar right handed pitchers.

Texas has definite potential to put up a big number. The Rangers have scored 10 runs or more by themselves already seven times this year. That's pretty impressive for only the middle of May. 

The Royals offense has been far better than expected so far this year. Kansas City has scored 8 runs or more nine times this year. Texas is allowing a whopping 5.82 runs per game on the season thus far.

Texas has the single worst bullpen SIERA of any team in the majors. Kansas City is 12th worst.

Lance Lynn is an inconsistent starter who doesn't keep the ball on the ground very well. Homer Bailey has been better this year than last, but more than 50% of batted balls hit against him this year have been hard hit according to Fangraphs. 

The weather here is an important part of the handicap too. A temperature in the mid 80's and winds blowing out at 15-17 mph sustained with gusts to 25-30 mph is a big plus.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I had the under in game 6 between these two and lost, but with the way the game played out I have to take the under again here in a win or go home situation for both teams.

In game 6 the tempo was just 92.5 possessions. That was the slowest game of the series thus far. The tempo tends to slow down as the games become more important. I would expect a slow tempo again here. 

The teams shot extremely well in game 6. Portland averaged a whopping 1.280 points per possession. During the season they averaged 1.136 points per possession. The Nuggets put up 1.174 points per possession in game 6, compared to their season average of 1.121. 

These teams allowed 1.080 (Denver) and 1.095 (Portland) points per possession on average in the regular season. 

If we take the tempo from last game at 92.5 and project that again here, which I think is a solid guess, and then give each team their season average in points per possession we would get a projected total of 209 here. If we use the points per possession that they allowed during the season overall we would get a projected total of 202. Both are clearly below this posted total.

There were 52 (out of 62) made free throws in game six, and in an average NBA game there are only about 45 free throws even attempted, and 35 made free throws is about average. If we get average free throws here that knocks off 17 points from last game. 

There were also 27 made 3's last game and the average for these two teams would be around 22.

Both teams averaged 30.8% offensive rebounds during the season, but they got back 44.0% and 33.3% of their misses in game 6. That should level out a bit in game 7.

There are plenty of reasons to like this one. Game 7's are definitely lower scoring on average and the offensive efficiency numbers were extremely high last game. This is the value play given the situation. If they shoot lights out again and it goes over the total so be it, but this is the type of play that will win more times than it will lose.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been elite against left handed pitching this year, but they haven't been very good against right handers. The Braves are also better against lefties than right handers. 

Arizona ranks 17th in the majors against right handed pitching in weighted on base average. The Braves ranks 13th.

Both of these offenses have been struggling of late. In the last 14 days, the DBacks rank 18th in the majors in wOBA and the Braves rank 21st. 

Kevin Gausman has quality stuff and his hard contact rate is way down so far this year. Merrill Kelly is inconsistent, but he has typically been pretty good against batters who haven't seen him before. There is some blow up potential with him, but this is a high total so I'll take that chance.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is definitely one of the top two or three under umpires in baseball. The under is 251-204 (55.2% unders) in Miller's games behind home plate in his career. He should help both pitchers here. 

The under is 13-5 in the DBacks last 18 games against a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. 

Chase Field doesn't play the same as it did a few years ago. The humidor installed at Chase Field has slowed down the scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Friday Play of Day* Zack Greinke has been absolutely dealing of late. Greinke has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in his last 4 starts. Greinke has had a FIP of less than 2 in his last three starts. He has been allowing weaker contact as the season moves along. 

Greinke has a brilliant WHIP of 0.95 in his last three years pitching at Chase Field. He has gone at least six innings in his last seven starts. This Braves lineup has a .268 OBP against Greinke.

Julio Teheran has pitched better of late. Teheran has improved his control and he has been working ahead in the count more often.

Both of these offenses are quite a bit better against left handed pitching. They are both only mediocre against right handed pitching.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here and he has the highest called strike percentage of any umpire in the majors in the past five years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Fenway Park is highly influenced by wind. The forecast for Friday evening calls for a temperature in the low 60's and wind blowing out at 13 or 14 mph. 

Since 2005- games at Fenway with a temperature of 55 degrees or warmer and wind blowing out at 8 mph or more are 168-118 (58.7%) to the over. The weather is a clear help here.

Eduardo Rodriguez is a solid pitcher, but he has been worse at home in his career. Rodriguez has a 1.351 WHIP at home vs. a WHIP of 1.245 on the road. He's up against a Mariners offense that is second in the majors in OBP against lefties.

Erik Swanson has started four games this year. Two of them have been against the Cleveland Indians. The Indians offense has been ice cold. Swanson isn't as good as he looked in those games. He is still a youngster with questionable stuff. The Red Sox offense is averaging 6.6 runs per game in their last 10 games, and they have a history of hitting right handers hard.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets blew away the Portland Blazers on Tuesday night. I think we'll see a different game on Thursday night in game six. 

Portland has their backs against the wall and they should respond with a much stronger effort here. Still, the Blazers aren't the same team without Nurkic on the inside. Kanter is banged up as well and he isn't the offensive force he could be when healthy. 

The pace of this series has been very slow. The average pace through the first five games is 94.43 possessions. The last two games have seen very high shooting percentages overall. In game 5, there were a whopping 61 free throw attempts. Neither of these teams get to the line all that often on average. 

The tempo generally slows down in these huge games, but even if we project a pace of 94.5 possessions both teams averaging 1.13 points per possession would still keep this game under the total. That is a very solid shooting night, and the defenses generally get better in these closeout games. 

I like the extra value on the under in this big of a game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays offense is due for some regression. They have a whopping .376 batting average on balls in play with men in scoring position. Toronto has been very fortunate to put up as many runs as they have this year. Kyle Gibson is far from an elite pitcher, but he has improved from a few years ago. 

Trent Thornton has a high upside and he pitched great in his last start. The Twins offense is good, but they also have overachieved so far this year and that has contributed to this total being set at 9 flat.

The Blue Jays bullpen has pitched well this year. Toronto has improved depth in the pen this season.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. He is a strike caller. In his career, 56% of games Cuzzi has been the home plate umpire in have stayed under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Rangers are 6th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) so far this year. They are 3rd in wOBA against right handed pitching. Texas has some young hitters who have been impressive so far this season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates offense has been woeful against lefties, but they are middle of the pack against right handed pitching. The Pirates have Starling Marte back from an injury and that's a big boost to this lineup.

Shelby Miller starts for the Rangers, and he has been terrible this year. Miller has managed to walk 20 batters while striking out only 13 so far this season. He has a 7.99 ERA, and his FIP is barely better at 7.03. Miller is having major problems, and there is no sign of improvement.

Nick Kingham has upside potential for the Pirates on the mound, but he is inconsistent and isn't likely to pitch too deep into the game. The Pirates bullpen is gassed right now. Vazquez has pitched on three straight days and he is the anchor of the bullpen. 

The Rangers bullpen has the worst SIERA in the majors. They are clearly a bottom three bullpen in baseball. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals offense is a mess right now. Washington is without Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Matt Adams, Ryan Zimmerman, and Trea Turner. This offense has been decimated by injuries. 

Milwaukee's Lorenzo Cain is expected to miss Monday's game after a minor injury in Sunday's contest. 

Max Scherzer's advanced metrics show he has pitched into some very bad luck so far this year. Scherzer has a a lower FIP and xFIP this year than he had last year. His BABIP allowed is a whopping .377. That won't continue in the long run. Scherzer is still a dominant starting pitcher.

While Chacin isn't a guy I think is all that good, he has faced the Dodgers twice and the Cardinals twice already this year. Those are two of the best offenses in baseball. 

The Nationals have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 6 games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Kyle Freeland has shown that he is a good fit for Coors Field. Freeland's advanced metrics look similar to a year ago. His xFIP and SIERA are almost exactly the same as last year. He hasn't been able to carry the same strand rate. I still see him as a solid left hander who can keep the ball down. The Rockies defense behind him is tremendous.

Luke Weaver has had a really nice season thus far. Weaver was a very highly touted prospect for a long time. He seems to be putting it together. He has upped his swinging strike rate to 10.4%. He is now walking only 2 batters per nine innings.

The under is 27-6 in Kyle Freeland's last 33 home starts. The under is 16-3 in his last 19 home starts against a team with a winning record. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Twins host the Houston Astros in an early game to finish off their series on Thursday afternoon. 

Jose Berrios starts for the home team. Many pitchers have numbers that are a decent amount better at home than on the road. Berrios has some of the most drastic home/road splits in the majors. Berrios has a sparkling 1.085 WHIP at home. His road WHIP is 1.422. His WHIP at home was 0.972 last year. It is 0.738 in three starts at home this year. Berrios has great stuff, and he is able to induce a lot of soft contact as well.

I think Brad Peacock is an underrated pitcher. He has several good pitches and is able to command them all. Peacock is coming off a great start against the Indians. He's backed by an elite bullpen. The Astros rank first in the majors in bullpen FIP so far this year.

This is a get away day game and that often means a key player or two are out of the lineup.

Doug Eddings is behind the plate here, and he has the single highest percentage of strikes called of all umpires in the majors in the past five years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Cubs have been hitting the ball very well of late. The Cubs have scored 6 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games. Chicago has been very good against lefties in recent seasons and I would expect that to continue this season.

The Mariners rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Seattle's lineup has some very good right handed hitters who specialize in hitting lefties. 

Marco Gonzales is having a good season thus far, but he is due for regression. Gonzales has a 2.80 ERA and a 4.46 SIERA. His swinging strike rate is down to only 7.3% this season.

Jon Lester has given up a ton of hard contact this year. Opposing hitters exit velocity against Lester averages 92.4 mph. That is in the bottom 4% of the majors. Lester isn't going to keep getting away with that kind of hard contact rate in the long run.

The Cubs bullpen rates slightly worse than average so far this year. The Mariners have a bottom five bullpen in the majors.

The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* Matt Harvey vs. Homer Bailey in this contest on Sunday afternoon. Both of these starters have major blowup potential. Harvey has an ERA of 8.03 and his FIP is 5.90. Harvey is allowing a very high exit velocity of 91.0 mph so far on the year. His hard hit allowed percentage on batted balls is 45.2%. That is easily the highest of his career. He isn't fooling anyone. 

Homer Bailey has been terrible for the last few years. He actually pitched pretty well for a couple starts, but he was awful in his last outing. He couldn't find the strike zone at all. Bailey is a streaky pitcher, and he is very capable of being knocked out of the game in the first couple innings.

The Royals have a bottom five bullpen in the majors. The Angels bullpen is slightly worse than league average. 

I see plenty of scoring chances in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I took the under in Game 6 between these two and lost. I'm taking the under again in Game 7. There are quite a few reasons for this play. 

First of all, game 6 and game 7's in the NBA playoffs have been very good to under bettors. The under is 95-67 in Game 6 or Game 7 in the NBA playoffs since 2005. That's a good starting point.

Game 6 finished at 223 points, 12 points above this total. There were a lot of reasons that game 6 was high scoring that you wouldn't expect to be replicated here. 

-The Spurs averaged an insane 1.333 points per possession in Game 6. They averaged 1.122 points per possession during the season.

-The Nuggets averaged 1.144 points per possession in Game 6. They averaged 1.121 points per possession in the regular season. 

-The Nuggets got 39% of their misses back in Game 6. They led the league in offensive rebounding percentage, but their percentage in the season was 30%. 

-The Spurs got 29.7% of their misses back in Game 6. They averaged only 24.6% offensive rebounding percentage in the season.

-The teams turned the ball over on only 7.8% and 8.9% of their possessions in Game 6.

Finally, the pace of the game was just 90 possessions. That was easily the slowest paced game in the series thus far. The bigger the stakes the more likely the game is to slow down. If this game plays to 92 possessions (2 quicker than last game), both teams could shoot their season average and this game would finish 5 points under the total.

With game six being high scoring because of amazing shooting numbers, we get extra value on this game. If they shoot lights out again so be it. This is the right play to make as far as value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros meet in a battle of two of the top teams in baseball on Saturday afternoon. Shane Bieber is coming off a really rough outing, but he has quality stuff and I would expect a pretty good performance here. In his career, Bieber has drastic splits that you don't see very often. Bieber has a 6.12 ERA (1.483 WHIP) at home. On the road, Bieber has a 3.12 ERA (1.128 WHIP). 

Brad Peacock is an above average pitcher. The Astros have so much depth that he can get lost in the shuffle sometimes, but he has multiple plus pitches and I like his ability to induce soft contact. 

The Indians rank 9th in the majors in bullpen FIP. The Astros rank 2nd in bullpen FIP. The Indians have an above average bullpen. The Astros have what I believe is the best bullpen in the majors.

The wind is blowing out here, but a look at the data shows me the wind blowing out in Houston has 105 overs and 109 unders in the last 214 contests. 

O'Nora is a bit of an under umpire, and this number has been pushed up a full run.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. This Cardinals lineup is really deep, and they can make things very difficult on an opposing pitching staff. 

Tyler Mahle has been good so far this year, but he has faced some easy competition. Other than one game against the Dodgers, who have a very good offense, he has faced subpar lineups. Mahle's ERA looks good, but his exit velocity allowed is a whopping 93.1 mph. He ranks in the bottom two percent in hard hit batted balls in the majors as well. 

Dakota Hudson has control issues, and he has allowed a lot of hard contact. Hudson has been able to work out of jams for the most part, but I see him as a regression candidate. The Cardinals pitching staff has had great luck when it comes to batted balls. On the other side, the Reds offense has the worst BABIP in the league and it isn't even close. The Reds are far better offensively than they have shown so far this year. 

The wind is blowing out at about 15 mph for this one, and with two pitchers allowing a lot of hard contact I see this number as too low.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* It would be hard to overstate how bad Shelby Miller has been this year. Miller has 13 walks and only 6 strikeouts this year. For any big league pitcher to have more walks than strikeouts is awful, and Miller has more than doubled up his strikeout number. The Mariners have a patient offense (7th in walk rate), and they should make him work here. Miller has a swinging strike rate of a ridiculously low 5.0%. The Mariners lineup is full of quality youngsters. Miller has a 7.63 ERA, but his FIP is 7.81 and xFIP is 8.11. He hasn't been unlucky. He's just been terrible.

Yusei Kikuchi will serve as the opener and pitch an inning or two here for Seattle. The Mariners are expected to turn it over to Justus Sheffield after that. Sheffield is a decent prospect, but he's been having major problems throwing strikes in the minors. Sheffield is averaging more than 7 walks per nine innings. He has a FIP of over 7 in the minors so far this year. He's likely to give this Rangers lineup several free passes.

The Rangers and Mariners both rank in the bottom ten in the majors in bullpen FIP. Both bullpens are likely to give the opposition several scoring chances.

The over is 6-1 in the Rangers last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 8-1-1 in Seattle's last 10 following a win.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clippers stunned everyone by winning at Golden State again in Game 5. We head back to LA for Game 6, and I see value on the under here.

There were 250 points scored in Game 5. A closer look at the shooting percentages and the tempo in that game makes me like the under here. Why? Game 5 was played at the slowest pace of the series. A tempo of 97.5 possessions. Each of the last three games has finished with a slower pace than the previous contest.

How did they score so many points last game? Extremely high shooting percentages and more offensive rebounds than normal. The Clippers averaged a whopping 1.316 points per possession. The Warriors averaged a really impressive 1.247 points per possession. 

The Warriors defense is better than they showed last game, and Steve Kerr was really unhappy with their defensive effort. I expect better defense from them in this contest.

If we get the same tempo as last game, and I think that's a good guess, both teams could average 1.18 points per possession and the total points would be at 230 points.

These teams can shoot the ball well, but this is an extremely high total for game 6 in the NBA playoffs.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The San Antonio Spurs go home down 3-2 to the Denver Nuggets. The Spurs were up 2-1 in this series, but have had a couple poor performances in a row. You would expect a really well-coached team like the Spurs to play better in a game like this one. 

These two teams rank 23rd and 25th at getting to the free throw line. The Spurs rank 2nd at defending without fouling. The Nuggets rank 12th. Unless the refs turn this thing into a ref show, you wouldn't expect a lot of free throws here.

The average pace in the last 3 games of this series has been 93.5 possessions. At 93.5 possessions, both teams averaging an impressive 1.10 points per possession would lead to a projected total at 205.7 points. 

As the games get more important, the defense generally turns it up a notch in the NBA playoffs. The tempo tends to slow down a bit more as well. 

Here's a system to consider:

First round of the NBA playoffs with a total of 191 to 209

-Home team with a win percentage of 60% or lower

-Spread between home team -4.5 and +7.5

-The percentage of tickets on the under is 45% or lower

In this situation the under is a whopping 47-10. This game fits the system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors lead the Clippers 3-1 and they are a big favorite here to finish out this series. 

Golden State dropped game two to the Clippers. Golden State played the ultra fast paced game that the Clippers wanted in that game. The Warriors have turned the dial on the tempo the last couple games. 

Golden State averaged 1.149 points per possession in the regular season. In this series, they are at 1.186. 

The first two games were played to a pace of 108.5 possessions. The last two games in this series have played to 99.75 possessions. 

If we assume there will be around 100 possessions in this game- the Warriors could average 1.9 points per possession (119 points) and that leaves the Clippers needing to score more than 113 for this to go over.

Two of the best under refs in the business are calling this game in Goble and Davis.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* John Means isn't a guy the Orioles can count on going deep into the game. In his two starts he has gone a combined 8 innings. The White Sox are a bit better offensively against left-handed pitching than righties. Means is a subpar lefty. 

The Baltimore Orioles bullpen is awful. Baltimore's bullpen ranks last in the majors by nearly half a run in FIP at 6.30. 

Ervin Santana starts here for the White Sox. Santana was decent a couple years ago for the Twins, but last year he came back from injury with a huge velocity drop. Santana was throwing his average fastball at 93.6 mph a couple years ago. Now, he consistently sits at 89 or 90 mph. That's a big difference. Santana is giving up a lot of hard contact, and he has a swinging strike rate below 5% (very low) last year and this year. 

The White Sox bullpen ranks 21st in the majors, so they aren't very good either.

The over is 12-1 in the Orioles last 13 home games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Brewers and Cardinals have two of the best offenses in the National League. Jhoulys Chacin and Adam Wainwright have been very shaky so far this year, and neither of these bullpens have been very good either.

Wainwright was a star pitcher at one point, but he is hanging on right now and simply isn't very good. Wainwright has a bad combination of poor control and he ranks bottom 6% in the majors in fastball velocity. So far this year, his hard hit rate is at the worst percentage in his career. 

Chacin is averaging 5.18 walks per nine innings this year. His control has been much worse this season. Chacin has a 5.66 ERA in his career against the Cardinals.

Mark Wegner is behind home plate and he is one of the best over umpires in the business because of his tight strike zone. That hurts both pitchers quite a bit here since both of these guys struggle with their control.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star NBA Super System CRUSHER* The Orlando Magic are down 2-1 to the Toronto Raptors. All three games in this series have stayed under the total. In fact, they have all stayed under this total, which has been adjusted down a bit. 

These two teams have played 7 games this year. The average final total in those games has been 202 points. These teams are consistently playing at a slow tempo against each other. 

Toronto ranks 22nd in the NBA in free throw attempts per game. Orlando ranks dead last in free throw attempts per game. Orlando is 5th best at not fouling on defense. Toronto is 11th best at not fouling on defense.

Both of these teams are below average at getting second chance opportunities. 

The Raptors have some serious defensive talent on their roster now. Kawhi Leonard is as good as they come on defense. Danny Green is a very good defender. Marc Gasol is a good defender in the low post. Serge Ibaka is a very good defender as well. 

The Magic are scrappy on defense and they will make Toronto work on the offensive end.

There's a big system that this game fits.

-A 1st round NBA playoff game

-The total of 191 to 209

-Home team win percentage of 60% or lower

-Road team win percentage of 50% to 73%

-Home team favored by 4.5 points or is an underdog

In this situation the under is a stunning 62-19 in the last 81 (76.5%).

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total Perfection* The LA Dodgers have a great offense, but their totals have gotten a bit inflated of late. The Dodgers also have a good pitching staff and an underrated bullpen. Dave Roberts has consistently sat out a key starter or two in Sunday day games in his time as manager of the Dodgers. I would expect a key player or two out of the lineup here.

Clayton Kershaw isn't the best pitcher in baseball anymore, but he is still very good. Kershaw unders at this high of a number are definitely intriguing to me. 

Brandon Woodruff's ERA isn't very good this year, but his FIP and xFIP suggest positive regression should be coming.

Josh Hader didn't pitch yesterday, and he should be available to pitch for more than an inning should the situation arise. That is clearly a plus for the under.

The under is 8-0 in the Dodgers last 8 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Brewers last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A combined 22-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Mariners offense has been really good so far this year. I think they are a quality offense, but they are due for some regression. Their batting average on balls in play with men in scoring position is .343 so far this year. That number can't continue all year. 

Trevor Cahill starts for the Angels, and he has held this Mariners lineup to a subpar .224 batting average in 86 plate appearances. 

Yusei Kikuchi is a quality lefty who the Angels will be seeing for the first time. The Angels are terrible against lefties. This team was in the bottom five against lefties last year, and they are dead last in wOBA against lefties so far this year. Justin Upton is usually good against lefties, but he is injured now. The Angels have Mike Trout, but the rest of the lineup isn't good. The Angels have a .241 wOBA against lefties on the season.

The under is 34-14-3 in the Angels last 51 games against a left handed starter. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers controlled the tempo and had a very real chance to win the game in Boston in Game 2. Indiana led by 2 points with 52 seconds left. The Pacers losing by 8 and failing to cover 7.5 is one of the worst NBA beats I've ever seen.

Indiana knows they need this game badly. They aren't likely to change their game plan here. Their game plan was working in game two. Keep the Celtics out of transition and use the clock on offense. 

The shooting numbers weren't all that bad last game, but the game only got to 190 points. The game was played to only 94 possessions. I think Indiana gets their preferred tempo again here.

Boston ranked 29th in the NBA at getting to the free throw line during the regular season. Indiana ranked 25th. These two don't normally get to the line much. 

The under is 20-7 in the Pacers last 27 games against a team with a winning percentage of 60% or higher. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Orlando Magic were beaten badly in game two. I like to play unders in game 3 when the home team was beaten soundly in game two. 

This is a chance for the home team to attempt to rally the troops and put forth a better effort, and more times than not it comes from improved play on the defensive end. Orlando wants to slow this game down, and I expect them to work to slow the tempo a lot on their home floor. 

These teams have met six times this year. Four of the six games have stayed under this total. The average final total has been 204.33 points. This is a playoff game that means much more than the regular season meetings did, and playoff games have historically been quite a bit lower scoring. 

Orlando ranks last in the league at getting to the free throw line. Toronto ranks 21st. Unless there is a ref show, you wouldn't expect a bunch of free throws when these two teams meet.

Here's a totals playoff system I have followed in recent seasons with success.

-Total of 195.5 or higher 

-Home team is between -2.5 and +5.5 in the game 

-The home team is coming off a loss of 6 points or more

-The home team has won 63% or less of their games in the regular season

-The under is getting 45% or less of the bets

The under is a whopping 37-8 (82.2% wins) in the last 45 contests that fit this criteria. This game fits the system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers made a massive comeback to win over Golden State in stunning fashion in Game 2 at Oracle Arena. 

Golden State is clearly the best team in the NBA, and the Warriors aren't likely to shut it down in the 3rd quarter as they did last game. Steve Kerr made it clear he wasn't happy with the Warriors defense in the second half of Game 2. 

While Golden State is obviously a great offensive team, most don't realize how good this Warriors defense can be when they are highly motivated. The under is 24-8-1 in the Warriors last 33 games following a loss. I don't think that's an accident. The under is also 4-1 in their last 5 after allowing 125 points or more in their last game.

There were a whopping 65 made free throws in Game 2. An average made free throws number for these two teams would be in the upper 30's. Last game was an outlier. Could there be a bunch of made FT's here again? Yes, but we shouldn't expect that number to be repeated.

Both teams shot the ball very well from the floor last game. This game has a little extra on the line now with the series at 1-1.

The line has been adjusted upward by the oddsmakers. This is an extremely high playoff total. An average of 59 points per quarter puts this one just under the total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros offense has been very good of late. Houston was clearly better against lefties last year, and that has been the case again this year thus far.

A total of 9 is high in Oakland. This is a top five pitchers park in the majors. There is a massive amount of foul territory. The ball doesn't carry well here. Fly ball pitchers can have a lot of success in this park.

Houston arguably has the best bullpen in baseball (maybe second behind the Yankees). The Athletics rank in the top five in FIP in the bullpen, so they have pitched into bad luck thus far. 

Wade Miley pitches to contact, but he has a good defense behind him. Oakland's defense has been excellent this year as well. 

Frankie Montas has plenty of upside and his pitches have plenty of movement. 

Gibson has a been a strike caller behind home plate in recent seasons as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors are down 1-0 after Orlando stunned them in game one. In game one, Orlando was able to slow the pace down quite a bit. The game played to 98.5 possessions. The shooting was a bit below average, but it wasn't terrible. Orlando averaged 1.051 points per possession and Toronto averaged 1.031 points per possession. 

Late in the regular season, Orlando was very good defensively. Toronto was also strong defensively to finish out the year. Orlando ranked 7th in defensive efficiency in the last 15 games. Toronto ranked 4th in defensive efficiency. 

Orlando ranked 25th in pace of play and Toronto ranked 15th. Neither team pushes the pace to any kind of extreme level.

Two of the three best under referees in the NBA are on this game in Marc Davis and John Goble. 

Neither of these teams have been particularly strong at offensive rebounding, and that helps with avoiding second chance points.

There hasn't been an adjustment down in this total like there was in most of the other contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* Matt Boyd has had an amazing start to the season. In his first three starts, he has a ridiculous swinging strike rate of 16.8%. He had a solid 10.2% swinging strike rate last year. Boyd is striking out 15 batters per nine innings pitched this year. Obviously, this kind of strikeout rate won't continue. Still, there are a couple reasons I like what I see from him. Boyd has upped his slider usage quite a bit this year, and that is clearly his best pitch. The Tigers are top five in the majors in bullpen ERA so far this year. 

Joe Musgrove hasn't allowed an earned run yet this year. His average exit velocity allowed is only 85.5 mph so far this year. He has only allowed one barreled batted ball so far this year. Musgrove is backed by a quality Pirates bullpen.

The Pirates offense isn't nearly as good without Polanco or Dickerson in the lineup. Both of those guys are injured right now. 

Nick Castellanos and Niko Goodrum are both questionable for the Tigers here as well.

Cool temperatures and a slight breeze blowing in are helpful as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* There has been a lot of money come in on the under in this game. The total opened at 219 and has been bet down six points. I think this move has been overdone. 

Utah is a much better offensive team than they were a year ago. Utah got significantly better on offense late in the season this year. The Jazz were third in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last 15 games of the season. Who was first? The Houston Rockets. 

Houston's coaching staff has been quoted as saying they have to get the tempo going even quicker than normal here to prevent Utah's big men from setting up on the defensive end. Look for the Rockets to move the ball around quickly and try to get up some shots early in the shot clock here. 

Utah can sometimes shoot a poor percentage from the floor and still score quite a few points. The Jazz have been pretty good on the offensive boards, and Houston ranks second worst in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Houston has scored 111 points or more in 12 of their last 13 games. Utah has scored 109 points or more in 16 straight games. The big move on the under has created some value on the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle Crusher* The Spurs and Nuggets have met four times this year. All four games went under the total. The stakes are clearly higher now with this being a playoff contest. The tempo generally slows down in the playoffs and the defenses work a little harder. 

Both San Antonio and Denver slowed their pace down late in the regular season, and I don't see any reason to expect them to speed things up now that the games mean even more. Denver ranked second slowest in the NBA in tempo in the last 15 games of the year. The Spurs were fourth slowest.

Denver hasn't been all that efficient on offense overall this year. It has been their second chance points that can really do damage. The Spurs rank sixth in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage. The Spurs are 24th in offensive rebounding percentage, so I wouldn't expect too many second chance opportunities for them.

The under is 9-0 in the Spurs last 9 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on two days of rest. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 6-0 in Denver's last 6 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A combined 31-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks aren't going to be nearly as good against left handed pitching this year. Paul Goldschmidt was always a big reason this team was great against lefties. A.J. Pollock was good against lefties as well. The DBacks have good numbers against lefties in a small sample size this year though it is important to keep that in context. Zack Greinke's mashing when he has pitched weighs heavily here. 

Without Lamb, Souza, and Avila this DBacks lineup is pretty weak right now. Arizona has scored two runs or less in three of their last five games.

Merrill Kelly pitches for the DBacks here, and I like his ability to locate the curveball. He's a guy who can be hard to hit when he has it working. The Red Sox just found that out. Kelly has been pretty good in the Rays minor league organization the last few years.

Matt Strahm is a guy the DBacks haven't seen much and that should hurt them. Strahm is backed by a good bullpen as well.

Muchlinski is behind the plate here and he's clearly an under umpire based on his strikes called percentages and strikeout/walk ratios.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The weather in Atlanta is very warm for this time of the year. Temperature at first pitch is expected to be around 80 degrees here. The ball flies well in this park when it is warm.

Jason Vargas is near the end of his career, and his stuff just isn't good enough anymore. He had a 5.77 ERA last year, and the early signs from this year are no better. The Braves rank 8th in wOBA against lefties this year, and the Atlanta lineup should get plenty of scoring chances here.

Sean Newcomb is a really inconsistent pitcher. There are nights when he looks great and some nights where he looks awful. Newcomb has been struggling with his control early in the season. 

Neither pitcher is going to get any help from Alfonso Marquez, who will be the home plate umpire here. Marquez has called the lowest percentage of pitches a strike of any umpire in the majors in the last five years. 

These two bullpens both rank in the bottom 8 in ERA this year, and they are both in the bottom five in FIP on the season.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The weather should play a big factor here. Sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph blowing out to center field are in the forecast. 

Mike Leake is a mediocre pitcher who has solid control, but can get hit around on a fairly regular basis. The Mariners bullpen went from a major strength last year to a major weakness this year.

Jorge Lopez had an ERA above 5 in both the majors and in Triple A last year. Lopez hasn't typically been a starter, and he can't pitch deep into the game. The Royals bullpen is the worst in baseball.

Both offenses have performed pretty well this year, and with wind howling out to center field I like the value on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers rank second to last and last in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA). 

Cleveland's lineup has a strikeout percentage of a whopping 30.3%. No one else is close to that level so far this year. This team is swinging and missing a bunch. Spencer Turnbull has had very good swinging strike rates in the minors throughout his career. 

Bieber is ready for a breakout for the Indians. He has a great strikeout/walk ratio, and I always like to back or play unders with starting pitchers like that. The Tigers lineup doesn't have much pop in it. 

The wind here is forecast to be blowing in between 15 and 20 mph. That could be a big factor in this one. It's a get away day game which means a key bat could be out of the lineup as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather here should play a role. With some rain and heavy winds of about 15 mph sustained with gusts to 25 mph blowing in from center field, the conditions won't be great. With temperatures in the upper 30's, it will be nasty outside. There is certainly a chance this game gets rained out, but if it is played I like the under here.

According to my umpire database, Carapazza has called the 12th highest percentage of strikes of all the umpires in the majors (91 umpires) in the past five years. The under is 88-59 in his games behind the plate as well. A very good under umpire.

Tyler Glasnow can struggle with control sometimes, but Carapazza should help out with that. The White Sox rank below average in walks, and this offense has quite a few guys who are free swingers. Glasnow has a really high upside, and this White Sox offense isn't very good.

Reynaldo Lopez has struggled with walks so far this year, but Carapazza helps and the Rays only rank 23rd in the majors in walk rate so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The ball doesn't carry well at Citi Field when the temperatures are cool. This ranked as the best pitcher's park in the majors last year. 

Jacob Degrom has been nothing short of amazing both last year and the start of this year. Degrom has thrown 26 straight scoreless innings. Degrom also has struck out 24 of the 48 batters he has faced this year. Degrom also has 26 straight quality starts, and a quality start here would break Bob Gibson's record for most quality starts in a row.

Degrom's has been very good on the road, and nearly unhittable at home the last few years. He comes home now to face a Twins lineup that isn't all that impressive. Miguel Sano is a key cog missing from the lineup.

The Mets offense is without Cespedes and Frazier right now. The Mets will face Kyle Gibson here. Gibson's underlying stats suggest last year's breakout season is likely a sign of more positive things to come for him. His swinging strike rate was up a lot, and he did a better job keeping the ball in the ballpark.

Both bullpens are better than average. The Twins bullpen is fairly deep and a pretty good pen overall. The Mets have an excellent bullpen with Diaz now anchoring things.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Stephen Strasburg has felt right at home pitching in Philadelphia. Strasburg has a phenomenal 1.58 ERA in 10 starts in Philadelphia in his career. Do the Phillies have a better lineup than they had then? Yes. Still, Strasburg has only allowed a .277 OBP against this Philadelphia Phillies roster. 

Aaron Nola has proven himself as a top notch pitcher in the past year. Nola has always had the excellent curveball, but his other pitches have gotten much better. Nola is elite at preventing hard contact, and that's a skill many pitchers can never master.

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 10-12 mph here which is definitely a bonus.

The under is 6-0 in Strasburg's last 6 starts in Philadelphia. The under is 7-2 in Nola's last 9 starts vs. the Nationals.

Two top 15 starting pitchers against each other here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The St. Louis Cardinals have a deep lineup, and they will score quite a few runs this year. San Diego's offense is clearly much improved with Ian Kinsler, Eric Hosmer, and then Manny Machado in the order.

The winds are forecast to be blowing straight out at 12-13 mph during this game. The home plate umpire is Wegner and he is one of the better over umpires in the league.

Adam Wainwright used to be a good pitcher, but he isn't anymore. Wainwright has major control problems, and his fastball sits in the 87 mph range. I think it is only a matter of time until Wainwright is out of this rotation. The Padres offense isn't great, but they are much improved from last year, and I think they get to Wainwright here. 

Strahm is a fly ball pitcher and the Cardinals have power. With the wind blowing out, I see plenty of opportunities for them as well.

This total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals have two of the worst offenses in the majors.

We've got one of the best under umpires in the majors behind home plate here in Bill Miller. According to my umpire data from the spreadsheet I keep, Miller ranks third highest in the majors in strikes called percentage. He also has a great strikeout/walk ratio. He's called almost 66% of pitches of pitches a strike in his first two games behind the plate this year. The under is 36-13-2 in Miller's last 51 Sunday games behind home plate. 

Keller has some potential for Kansas City. He has been able to induce weak contact and his slider continues to improve. Detroit has a terrible .168 average against right handed pitching so far this year.

Tyson Ross can sometimes have control problems, but he should be helped by Bill Miller's strike zone, and this Kansas City offense isn't the same without Salvador Perez in the lineup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense, and it isn't even very close. You have to love what the Red Raiders are doing defensively under Chris Beard. Beard is an elite head coach and he has this team working so hard on defense. As he has said before, defense is a way of life in his program. If you don't defend well, you won't play for Chris Beard.

Michigan State's defense is a lot better than most people realize. The Spartans have played the second toughest schedule in the country this year, and they haven't allowed an opponent to average more than 1.12 points per game all year. They have been so consistently strong defensively. Michigan State has a couple very good defenders in Matt McQuaid and Aaron Henry to throw at Jarrett Culver.

Texas Tech and Michigan State have both struggled with turnovers on offense this year, and I do think there will be quite a few wasted possessions in this game. Neither team likes to push the pace very much, and both teams are very physical. As long as we don't get a ref show here, I think the defenses will have the upper hand all the way.

Michigan State loves to run the pick and roll with Winston, but Texas Tech is elite at defending that play. Texas Tech is reliant on Culver getting into the lane, but Michigan State should have a good defensive plan ready for him.

Shooting numbers have historically been lower in these huge stadiums built for football rather than basketball. That's another plus in this one.

A very hard fought game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cincinnati Reds offense is a mess right now. As a team their plate discipline has been poor. The Reds are going after bad pitches and not making the pitcher work deep into the count.

How bad has the Reds offense been? The Reds haven't scored a single run in 4 of their first 7 games this season! They have scored more than 3 only one time (season opener). This lineup definitely misses Scooter Gennett. 

The Pirates offense is worse than league average. Pittsburgh does have a deep bullpen though.

Tanner Roark and Trevor Williams square off here, and both of these guys have been much better in day games than night games. Roark has a 3.13 ERA in day games and 3.90 ERA in night games. Williams has a 2.91 ERA in day games and a 4.12 ERA in night games. This is a day game in Pittsburgh. Both of these starters have pitched well in their career in the first month of the season as well.

Williams has been an under machine on the mound of late. The under is 37-13-1 in his last 51 starts. 

The under is 7-0 in the Reds seven games this year. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A combined 11-0 angle.

Mark Ripperger is behind home plate and he has been a strong under umpire in his career. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Portland Blazers are without C.J. McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic right now due to injury. The Blazers have still been good, but their upside is certainly limited without those guys. 

Portland has slowed their pace down a bit without two of their best players. Portland ranked 16th in the NBA in tempo up until the McCollum injury. In their last ten games, they rank 24th in the NBA in tempo. 

Denver ranks 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. The Nuggets have slowed the pace down drastically in recent weeks.

Denver has been better defensively of late as well. Denver ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games.  Portland has been solid defensively also of late. Portland ranks 10th in defensive efficiency in their last ten games.

I like to look for unders late in the season in the NBA in games that mean a lot to both teams. Denver sits in second in the Western Conference standings. Portland sits 4th in the standings and they are only two games behind Denver. 

The under is 6-0 in the Nuggets last 6 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Blazers last 5 when they are off a win of 10 points or more. A 16-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers renew their rivalry on Friday night in Milwaukee. Chicago is off to a terrible 1-5 start to the season. Milwaukee is off to a great 6-1 start to the season. These two teams don't like each other a bit, and there have been a bunch of low scoring games between these two in recent years. The under is 24-6 in the last 30 meetings between these two teams.

Brandon Woodruff has good velocity on his fastball, and he has some pretty good secondary pitches. Woodruff has some upside, and this Cubs lineup has really struggled to string together hits this season. 

Jose Quintana has been amazing against Milwaukee in his career. Quintana has a 1.62 ERA in 11 career starts against the Brewers. He has a 1.55 ERA in six starts at Miller Park.

The Cubs bullpen is a concern, and I think putting a portion of this under play on the first five innings under is definitely something to consider. The Milwaukee bullpen is very good though, and Josh Hader is well rested for this one.

I see a close low scoring contest here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Denver Nuggets offense has been a mess of late. In their last 8 games, Denver ranks last in the NBA in offensive efficiency. It's hard to imagine, but yes they are actually behind the Bulls and the Knicks during their last eight games. 

Denver's defense has been solid during this time. The Nuggets rank 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games.

San Antonio is playing at the 28th fastest pace out of 30 teams in the league in their last eight games. Denver ranks 29th in tempo during that time. Both of these teams have been slowing the game down.

Late in the season, unders between good teams have been very good in recent seasons. The angle is stronger when they are teams from the same conference. This one definitely fits.

The under is 7-0 in the Spurs last 7 vs. a Western Conference foe. The under is 4-0 in the Nuggets last 4 home games. The under is 5-0 in the Nuggets last 5 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. A 16-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are back to playing better defense of late. For the season, Golden State ranks only 14th in defensive efficiency. Golden State hasn't played like a team that is terribly motivated during much of the regular season. The Warriors rank sixth in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games. 

Denver ranks as the second slowest paced team in the NBA in the last 10 games. The Nuggets have decided to try to slow things down quite a bit. Golden State is no longer one of the fastest teams in the league. In fact, Golden State ranks 21st in the NBA in pace in their last ten games. 

Denver ranks 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games. The Nuggets rank 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last 10 games.

Both teams should be motivated here as the two teams fight for playoff seeding in the Western Conference. 

Late in the season, taking two good teams playing against each other to go under the total has been a very strong angle in the past few seasons.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs and Texas Longhorns meet in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden. This is a strange game in that it is a Big 12 showdown in New York City. It's the third time these two teams have played each other this year. 

The first two games between these two teams finished at 125 and 126 points total. Texas ranks 35th in the country in defensive efficiency. TCU ranks 33rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Very early in the small postseason tournaments (NIT, CBI, CIT) the over has been a huge moneymaker in the past. Later in these tournaments, the under has had a lot of value. These games start meaning more now. You're this far into the tournament, so why wouldn't you try to go win the thing? The defensive intensity tends to pick up on average, and the tempo slows down a bit.

Madison Square Garden is arguably the best under arena you'll find for a college basketball game. The under is 60-39-2 in the last 101 postseason games at MSG with a total of 127.5 or higher. 

In the NIT semifinals or finals, the under is 26-8 in the last 34 contests with a total of 129 or higher.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams have weak bullpens. Seattle has a bottom five bullpen in baseball. The Angels have a bottom ten bullpen in the majors. 

Felix Hernandez was once a very dominant starter, but he's not a top 100 pitcher in the majors now. Chris Stratton doesn't have elite stuff, and he walks too many batters. That's a bad combination, especially in the American League.

The Angels offense looked really bad against the A's in their last series, but Oakland's bullpen is elite. They won't be up against an elite bullpen here. The Mariners bullpen is already gassed and they aren't good.

I would expect both teams to get plenty of scoring chances throughout this game.

The over is 6-0 in Hernandez's last 6 starts vs. an AL West opponent.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians offense is weaker this year, and they are much weaker without Francisco Lindor healthy. There is less pop in this offense right now, and they have quite a few high strikeout batters in the lineup.

Michael Pineda has never realized his full potential, but he has great swing and miss stuff. Pineda should be able to miss quite a few bats with the lineup Cleveland is going to run out there.

Carlos Carrasco is a tremendous starting pitcher. I think he is a top 10 or 12 starter in the majors. Carrasco has become so much more consistent, and his ability to work deep into the game is important since the Indians no longer have a really deep bullpen.

The Twins are without Miguel Sano and that hurts this lineup. Minnesota has plenty of power, but Carrasco has been great at suppressing home runs.

The cold weather is a plus for the under too since the ball doesn't carry well in these temperatures.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Reynaldo Lopez and Jake Junis are both starting pitchers with plenty of potential. They haven't been the most consistent starters, but they have the potential to shut down the opposition. There are a couple key factors working in their advantage on Saturday.

First, Ron Kulpa will be behind the plate, and he has always been an excellent under umpire. That's something I keep a close eye on, and it can definitely make a difference.

Second, cold weather and winds blowing in are a big help here. Early in the season (game 25 or earlier), cold weather and winds blowing in at 10 mph or more have been better than 60% to the under in the past five years. This one fits the system nicely.

The White Sox bullpen has gotten better. The Royals do still have a weak bullpen, but it is slightly better than a year ago.

Both of these offenses have tons of question marks. 

The under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats rank 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Houston ranks 12th in defensive efficiency. Houston ranks 1st in effective field goal percentage defense. While both teams are pretty good on offense, the strength of both teams is their defense. 

Kentucky has slowed their tempo down drastically in recent weeks. The Wildcats have played 7 of their last 10 ten games to a pace of 64 possessions or slower. Kentucky ranks 274th in tempo overall in the country. 

Houston ranks 247th in overall pace in the country. Houston has been held to a low number on offense in several big games this year. In fact, they scored 61 points or less in two of their last four games. 

This should be a very good game played between two physical teams. I'll keep this one to a 3 star play because if we get referees who want to blow the whistle a lot, this one could go over the total.

Overall though, I see a tight low scoring game in this showdown to see who gets to the Elite 8.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Conference playoff standings are really tight. The team in first place is only 8 games ahead of the team in eighth place. Just 1.5 games separate 5th from 8th place. Denver is in second place right now in the standings, but they could still fall to 3rd or 4th or even regain the top spot. Oklahoma City sits in 7th, but they are just one game out of 5th. 

This game means a lot to both teams. The more these games mean late in the season, the more I lean toward the under to begin with. There are more reasons to like the under in this one too.

Denver has seen 11 of their last 13 games stay under this number. The Nuggets have slowed their pace drastically. The Nuggets are playing at the second slowest tempo in the NBA in the last 10 games. 

Oklahoma City has a history of playing top opponents to lower scoring games. The under is 37-16-1 in the Thunder's last 54 games against a team with a 60% or higher win percentage.

Paul George is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury for this game. He'll likely try to play, but he is less than 100 percent. 

The under is 13-3 in the Nuggets last 16 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders rank first in the nation in defensive efficiency. Michigan ranks second in the nation in defensive efficiency. There is going to be some tremendous defense played in this game. If there is a lot of scoring, it will be because the teams are hitting tough shots. 

This game is played at the Honda Center in Anaheim. This has been a tremendous under venue in college basketball. In the last 55 games with a total of 124.5 or higher at Honda Center, the under is a whopping 40-15. 

Michigan's offense ranks 290th in the country in tempo, so they move very slowly. Texas Tech ranks at 253rd out of 353, so they move pretty slowly as well. This game should be played in the halfcourt, and both defenses are excellent. 

These are two extremely well-coached teams. Both coaching staffs should have a great idea of what the other team wants to do here. That should help the defenses.

With the venue being an extra bonus, I think the defenses look great here. It's a low number for a good reason.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs lost to the Florida State Seminoles last year in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga is very excited for the chance to get them back this season. Florida State's length really bothered Gonzaga's offense last year.

Florida State just put up 90 points in a blowout win over Murray State in the Round of 32. Keep in mind though, this is a Florida State offense that really struggled at times this year. They rank 171st in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Florida State is shooting only 33.7% from 3 point range on the season. 

Gonzaga's offense is great. The Bulldogs did feast on a weak schedule though. They faced the 104th toughest slate of defenses this year. Gonzaga did struggle more against the better defenses they faced this year (Tennessee, St. Mary's). Florida State ranks 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency, and they should give Gonzaga a tougher time than most teams have.

Florida State would be well served to play this game more in the halfcourt and force Gonzaga to stay out of the paint as much as possible.

This game is played at the Honda Center in Anaheim. This has been a tremendous under venue in college basketball. In the last 55 games with a total of 124.5 or higher at Honda Center, the under is a whopping 40-15. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It has been a strong angle in the past decade to take the under in a game between two good teams late in the year. Both of these have plenty to play for. Oklahoma City's recent slump has dropped them to 8th in the playoff standings, but they are just one game behind fifth place. 

Indiana sits in the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They certainly want to fight hard to stay there so they have home court advantage in the first round.

I like to look at recent performance this time of the year. In their last 8 games, Indiana ranks 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Oklahoma City ranks 27th during this time. What about on defense? Indiana ranks 4th best in the NBA. Oklahoma City ranks 6th best in the NBA during this period when it comes to defensive efficiency.

Both of these teams can go through offensive droughts, but both play tough defense. This game projects as a defensive battle.

The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'll start by saying this is an extremely high total, and normally I wouldn't play an over at this number. There are a couple key reasons I'll take the over in this game though.

This is a second round game in the CIT, which is a small postseason tournament. These smaller postseason tournaments in the early rounds have gone over the total at a very high rate. 

Green Bay's last game against East Tennessee State finished at 102-94. Both teams did shoot very well in that one. FIU's last game finished 87-81. That was against a Texas State team that tries to stall as much as possible.

FIU ranks first in the country in tempo. Green Bay ranks 10th overall in tempo and 8th in their offensive length of possession. These two teams absolutely fly. 

The quotes from Linc Darner, coach of Green Bay, suggest he expects a game with both teams pressing all game and running. With two teams pressing and both teams pretty good at drawing fouls, there should be quite a few trips to the line. Additionally, both of these defenses are bad at grabbing defensive rebounds so I would expect plenty of second chance opportunities. 

It's a very high number, but I think this one gets to 180 or more. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars rank first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Ohio State ranks 21st in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Houston ranks 252nd in the nation in tempo. Ohio State is 277th in the nation in tempo. Both Kelvin Sampson and Chris Holtmann generally prefer to play at a slow pace. 

Ohio State doesn't have much offensive firepower, and I would assume their game plan is to make sure this is a halfcourt game.

Both teams are far better at defense than offense, and this is a game that decides who gets to the Sweet 16. There is clearly plenty of incentive to work extremely hard on defense. 

In a regular setting, I think 130 is a fair number for the total here. In a game like this that means much more, I think this total should be in the 120's.

The under is 6-0-1 in Houston's last 7 neutral site games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Antonio Spurs defense has been much better in recent weeks. The Spurs rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games. San Antonio ranks 23rd in tempo in that period as well, so they are slowing things down. 

Brad Stevens was very upset with Boston's defensive effort in their last game, and you have to think they work harder on that end in this game. The Celtics have key players banged up that could slow the offense too. Jayson Tatum and Al Horford will either play at less than 100% or miss this game.

Sunday has been the best day for unders in the NBA in the long run, and it isn't even close. This is a high total with two teams who have plenty to play for here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Indiana Pacers rank second worst in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. Indiana also ranks 23rd in tempo. 

The Nuggets rank 28th in tempo, and Denver's defense is clearly better than it was a year ago. The under is 13-3 in Denver's last 16 road games.

A game between two good teams at this time of the season is a good under system in the past 15 years. This game means plenty to both teams.

Sunday has been the single best day to bet unders in the NBA by a wide margin. This is a Sunday afternoon contest.

The under is 7-0 in the Nuggets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in the Pacers last 5 following a loss by 10 points or more. A 25-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Greensboro Spartans use a full court press to keep the tempo going. Lipscomb ranks in the 94th percentile in the country in press offense. The Bison will be happy to play fast, and they should be able to get some quick scores against the press. UNCG will also create some turnovers and scoring opportunities from that press. 

Lipscomb ranks 14th quickest in average possession time on the season. UNCG ranks 77th out of 353 in tempo on offense. These teams love to play fast to start with. These postseason tournament games early in the tournament have been great over plays in the last few seasons. This one should be up and down all the way. Both teams have had fast paced high scoring games in the first round. They should repeat that here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The VCU Rams offense moves at the 40th quickest pace of any team in the country in terms of average possession length. I would expect VCU to move even faster than normal in a game like this. They know they can't get into a halfcourt game against a team with a 7'6 shot blocker like Tacko Fall in the middle. They'll look for every chance to get out in transition. 

UCF hasn't faced a press like VCU's much at all this year, and at times they have struggled with turnovers. VCU should get some easy chances off turnovers.

VCU's defense has been very good this year. Still, I think UCF's ability to draw fouls is key in this one. UCF is second in the nation in FTA/FGA. VCU fouls a lot based on their pressure defense. Look for BJ Taylor to be at the line a lot here. VCU is also good at getting to the free throw line. 

Both teams are good at getting second chance opportunities. With both teams getting second chance points and both teams getting to the line, this is a low total. With the spread where it is, overtime is a possibility and a foul fest late is possible as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State offense isn't the same without Dean Wade. Wade is a big man who can score in the post or step out and shoot or facilitate the offense. Kansas State becomes too guard-oriented without him. 

The Wildcats can still play elite defense without Wade. Kansas State ranks 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency (one spot ahead of Virginia). Bruce Weber's team is going to be easily the best defense UC Irvine has faced this year. In fact, Irvine hasn't gone against a team in the top 40 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

Kansas State's offense can be a mess without Wade, and UC Irvine has been very good defensively for several years under coach Russell Turner. UC Irvine ranks first in the nation in 2 point field goal percentage defense. 

Both teams play at an extremely slow tempo. This game tips off at 11 am local time, so this is an early start for these teams and that on the whole is a positive for the under.

This total is very low, but UC Irvine has played 8 games under this number this year. Kansas State has played 12 games under this number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels and the Villanova Wildcats meet on Thursday night in Connecticut. 

Both of these teams play very slowly. In terms of average possession length, Villanova ranks 339th out of 353 teams. St. Mary's is even slower at 350th out of 353 teams. This game should be played in the halfcourt throughout.

St. Mary's has some impressive numbers at home this year on offense, but their road and neutral offensive efficiencies are much lower. The Gaels averaged 1.202 points per possession at home this year. They averaged 1.085 points per possession on the road. They averaged 1.077 points per possession on neutral courts. They are a long way from home in this one, and neutral courts like this one tend to lean toward the under.

Villanova ranks in the top 5 in most three point shots attempted. The Wildcats go against a St. Mary's defense who ranks 44th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. St. Mary's has ranked in the top 44 each of the last three years when it comes to defending beyond the arc.

Look for a low scoring contest thanks in large part to the tempo this game will be played at. Both teams also rank in the top 80 in the nation in defending without fouling, so barring a ref show there shouldn't be too many free throws in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Phoenix rank 8th in the country in quickest possession length on offense. Green Bay always runs and they'll continue to do so here. 

East Tennessee State is right in the middle of the pack at 181st. The Bucs have shown the willingness to run against the likes of Georgia Southern, VMI, and Western Carolina this year. Green Bay will be the fastest paced team they have played all year.

This is a small postseason tournament, where overs have done exceptionally well in the first couple rounds in the past decade. Why? The pace usually picks up because there is less on the line.

East Tennessee State should dominate on the glass against a Green Bay team that gives up second chance points by the bunches.

This is several points too low in what should be a really high tempo contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both Grand Canyon and West Virginia like to push the pace. There are a lot of teams in their leagues who prefer to slow the game down, but now they get to go up against another team who likes to run.

Grand Canyon was an elite defense last year. They aren't this season. Grand Canyon was 3rd in the country in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 149th this season.

West Virginia picked up the pace quite a bit in their last few games. They have played 6 of their last 7 games to a pace of 71 possessions or quicker. Seven of their last eight games have finished at 153 points or higher.

This is a small postseason tournament, where overs have done exceptionally well in the first couple rounds in the past decade. Why? The pace usually picks up because there is less on the line.

Look for an uptempo game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers go to Brown to take on the Brown Bears from the Ivy League. This is a CBI contest.

Both of these teams have pretty good defensive numbers on the year, but these defenses aren't as good as they look. Why? Both have played a bunch of weak offenses. UAB has faced the 276th strongest offenses in the country according to KenPom (compared to 125th best defenses). Brown has faced the 249th toughest slate of offenses (185th defenses). Essentially, both teams played in leagues where they didn't have to go up against many good offenses.

This is a small postseason tournament, where overs have done exceptionally well in the first couple rounds in the past decade. Why? The pace usually picks up because there is less on the line.

Brown ranks 40th in overall tempo in the country (out of 353 teams), so they really push the pace. This is a very low total in a small postseason game with one team pushing the pace that much.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* This is a low total for an early smaller postseason tournament contest. These games are generally much faster paced than the regular season contests. 

This is an NIT game, and they have changed the rules for this year's NIT as an experiment. The 3 point line is a bit farther back (FIBA distance), but the shot clock resets to only 20 on an offensive rebound. Additionally, on the 2nd foul in the last two minutes teams will shoot two shots no matter how many fouls they have committed in that period. There will be no 1 and 1 attempts. Fouls will be reset every 10 minutes and after 5 fouls teams will shoot two shots.

These rule changes on the whole favor more scoring and a quicker pace. 

Creighton has been really efficient at home this year. Creighton saw 15 of their 17 games at home go over this posted total. 

Loyola Chicago ranked 31st in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are only 176th in that metric this season. They rank 293rd in 3 point defense, and Creighton shoots the 13th highest percentage of 3 pointers of any team in the country. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd love to run. Marshall ranks 7th in the nation in tempo. The Thundering Herd have gotten more efficient on offense as the season has moved along. 

IUPUI ranks 120th in tempo, so they play relatively quickly as well. The Jaguars rank 320th in the nation in 3 point percentage defense. Marshall ranks in the top 40 in the country in most 3 pointers attempted. The Thundering Herd should get some easy looks from long range.

IUPUI's biggest strength on offense is their ability to grab offensive rebounds. Marshall's single biggest weakness is defensive rebounding. They rank 338th out of 353 teams in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.

Overs have done really well in the early rounds of the smaller postseason tournaments. They have done especially well in games with two teams with a winning percentage under 60% for the season. This game fits that system.

Jon Elmore needs 20 points to become Marshall's all time scoring leader, and that should lead Marshall to push the pace even more here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers are without C.J. McCollum here. McCollum has a knee injury. Without McCollum, the Blazers lose a major offensive weapon. Portland doesn't have the great second scoring option in the backcourt now. On other hand, McCollum's defensive stats have never been very good, and they might be a bit better on defense with him on the bench.

Indiana is without their best scorer in Oladipo as well. The Pacers have scored 108 points or less in six straight games. They have scored 105 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The Pacers slow the game down, and they'll try to avoid a high scoring contest here.

Portland's tempo is slightly below league average, and without McCollum it should be tough for them to be as efficient on offense.

This is a game between two good teams late in the year. That's a solid under angle in the NBA in the past decade.

The under is 23-8 in the Pacers last 31 games vs a team with a 60% or higher winning percentage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UT Arlington Mavericks and the Georgia State Panthers meet in the Sun Belt Tournament final to decide who will represent the conference in the NCAA Tournament.

Georgia State plays a unique zone defense that can be a very tricky matchup. UT Arlington isn't efficient against a man offense (26th percentile in the country), but they are even worse against a zone defense (15th percentile). Georgia State isn't very good in transition defense, but Arlington ranks in the 2nd percentile in transition offense.

Georgia State has a solid offense, but I've been impressed with UT Arlington's ability to switch up their defenses. They have a solid man defense and a solid zone defense. The Mavericks do struggle with turnovers on the offensive end, and I see quite a few turnovers there.

Lakefront Arena is the venue here and the under has done well here. The under is 32-19 in the 51 postseason games played here.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies and Eastern Washington Eagles play for a berth in the NCAA Tournament tonight. Both of their games in the regular season played to a pretty slow pace, but the shooting was good. In this game, I would expect the pace to slow down some. After all, this game means far more than those regular season matchups did.

These are two of the top defenses in the Big Sky. This is a game played at a large arena in CenturyLink at Boise. This is a positive for the under as well.

Look for a tightly played game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UT Arlington Mavericks like to slow the game down. They are the second ranked defense in the Sun Belt. 

Georgia Southern plays extremely fast, but they aren't always efficient on offense. Georgia Southern is the third ranked defense in the Sun Belt. 

The two regular season meetings between these two teams finished at 139 and 141 points. This game is the semifinal game in the Sun Belt Tournament, and there is a lot more on the line than there was in either of the first two meetings. 

This game is also played at Lakefront Arena, which is noted for being a difficult shooting backdrop.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Cal State Fullerton won in overtime yesterday against UC Davis. UCSB won by 3 over Cal State Northridge. These two teams both played to a slower pace than their season average. These games mean more now. If they lose they go home. That typically leads to a slower pace.

Cal State Fullerton is 280th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are averaging only 0.98 points per possession this year. UCSB is solid on offense, but they rank 314th in the nation in tempo. 

Cal State Fullerton ranked 2nd in the Big West in defensive efficiency. UCSB ranked 4th. 

Honda Center is the venue here, and this is a massive hockey arena. These teams aren't accustomed to the spacious backdrop and that has caused massive shooting problems from Big West teams here in the past. The under is a whopping 33-8 in the last 41 Big West Tournament games here with a total of 131 or higher.

Take the under.