*3 Star Play Under* The final day of the regular season has been a great day to play unders in the past several years. It makes sense to me. Players are ready to go home after a long season. That is especially true for bad teams. These are two really bad teams with zero to play for in this one. 

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests. 

This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

*4 Star MLB 100% System Play SMASHER*

Luis Perdomo has a 3.55 ERA against the Giants in his career. Johnny Cueto has held the Padres lineup to a miserable .184 batting average. Cueto is at his best in day games, and he faces a very weak lineup in this one.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's have a key bat missing in Olson (injury) and Adrian Beltre is expected to be out for the Rangers. Mengden has pitched better late in the season. Cole Hamels is generally at his best in the last month of the year.

The final day of the season is a great under day in MLB by the numbers. It makes sense because players and umpires are ready to head home. Quicker innings with more first pitch swings and called strikes are the norm.

On the final day of the regular season (Game 162)- With a total of 8 or higher and two teams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower squaring off, the under is a whopping 21-0 in the last 21 contests.  This one fits that system and I'll take the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Rams are fourth in the NFL in tempo. I really like the way this new offense is working, and they are able to take advantage of Jared Goff's strengths in this new system. It's clear that Jeff Fisher and the previous coaching staff were holding Goff back.

The Rams have some good weapons on offense in Watkins, Kupp, and Todd Gurley in the backfield. The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play on the year at 6.6 (behind only Kansas City). 

Dallas is middle of the pack in the offensive stats so far this year, but they have faced three top ten defenses so far this year. The Rams are still transitioning over to a new system, and it is clear that they aren't quite ready for this yet.

Dallas plays at an average tempo, while the Rams rank fourth in the NFL in pace. 

This will be the best offense the Cowboys have played so far this year. I see both teams scoring quite a few here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* What's been the best conference to under bettors in recent history? Easily the AFC North. It makes a lot of sense to me. When you have teams like the Steelers and Ravens leading the way year after year, you'll have a bunch of hard hitting defensive contests. 

Since the 2004-2005 season, games with a total of 41 or higher in the AFC North have gone 55-27 to the under. That's 67.1% unders.

The Steelers haven't been the same offense on the road the last few years. The Steelers are also dead last in the NFL in rushing yards so far this year. Le'Veon Bell showing up late seems to have hurt the running game. 

The Ravens offense is a mess in the passing game. Joe Flacco isn't healthy and he doesn't have many weapons on the outside either.

The Ravens are tied for last in the NFL in yards per play. The Steelers are only 20th in yards per play as well.

The under is 7-0 in the Steelers last 7 road games against an AFC North foe. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 when the underdog in the game is off a neutral site loss. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 games in the NFL where a favorite of 3 or more from their last game lost by 35 points or more (Ravens). A 16-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors pass defense is extremely weak. Colorado State has big play makers on the offense at multiple spots, including the best receiver in the Mountain West. The Rams are going to get a lot of big plays in this game.

Colorado State finished last season by scoring 46, 49, and 63 points in their last three Mountain West games. They probably won't score that much here, but I think they'll be in the end zone quite a few times.

Hawaii's offense is improved this year under Dru Brown at the quarterback spot. Last week they struggled, but don't overreact to that, the game last week was played in bad weather at Wyoming (high wind). Colorado State's defense isn't very good. In fact, they are allowing 6.2 yards per play this year, which ranks among the 30 worst defenses in the country. Hawaii is allowing 6.3 yards per play. 

The over is 16-6 in Hawaii's last 22 games. The over is 4-1 in Colorado State's last 5 road games. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNLV Rebels have a good offensive line. It is one of the best in the conference. UNLV has been running the ball and breaking some big plays in the running game. The Rebels have a couple receivers who are capable of getting open deep, and as a whole their offense is clearly improved from a year ago.

Defensively, UNLV is way down from a year ago, and I expect a lot of teams to put up big numbers on UNLV this year.

The San Jose State Spartans are coached by a previous Dino Babers assistant. What does that mean? It means a very fast tempo and very little defense being played. Utah State rolled up 61 points on San Jose State last week. Utah State isn't very good on offense. This is a Spartans team that is going to give up points by the bunches all year long.

The over is 13-3 in UNLV's last 16 home games. 

I think this has a solid chance of getting to 70 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Auburn Tigers have a top ten defense this year. Auburn is tied for fourth in the country at 3.63 yards per play allowed. 

Mississippi State's defense ranks 14th in the country in yards per play allowed. The Bulldogs have been significantly better at wrapping up on defense this year. 

This is a matchup of two good defenses, and neither team is playing very fast. The Bulldogs are slightly slower than the average team in the country, and Auburn actually ranks among the 40 slowest teams in the country here. 

Nick Fitzgerald has to do too much for Mississippi State on offense. He's a very good player, but the best defenses will find ways to slow him down and force someone else to beat them.

Auburn's passing game hasn't gotten going this year, and they have been very one-dimensional.

Both teams run the ball more than 60% of the time. A moving clock is great for an under.

The under is 5-0 in Auburn's last 5 games after gaining 450 yards or more in their last game. The under is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 home games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 14-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates play extremely fast and they play no defense. They are dead last against the pass in the country and 123rd in the country in run defense.

South Florida ranks third in the nation in tempo. The Bulls will be glad to push the tempo and score a ton of points in this one. Flowers is a playmaker and he and his offense have looked better the last couple games. East Carolina's defense should make them look even better.

South Florida has had some trouble defending the passing game this year. East Carolina has a decent passing game and with the number of possessions there will be in this one, I see them scoring a decent amount of points as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Northwestern and Wisconsin have a history of tight low scoring games. I see no reason to expect anything different here. In the last four meetings, the highest final total was 41 points. The last two games finished 13-7 and 21-7. This one likely won't be that low, but this total is too high.

Wisconsin and Northwestern are both running teams first and that means a lot of ticking clock throughout in this one. Both teams will be geared to stop the run, and I think we'll have a lot of long slow drives in this one. Expect teams to have to settle for field goals and that's a big plus in this type of slow plod it out game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini host the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Friday night. Both of these offenses have had serious trouble of late. Nebraska had only 306 yards against a very weak Rutgers defense. Nebraska put up only 17 points the previous week against Northern Illinois from the MAC.

Illinois hasn't gained more than 354 in a game so far this year. The Fighting Illini were held to just 14 first downs and 216 yards in their season opener against Ball State. The Fighting Illini beat Western Kentucky, but they still only had 300 yards. They racked up some yardage late against USF in a blowout loss.

Both of these teams rank among the 30 slowest paced teams in the country.

Nebraska and Illinois are both improved on defense. Nebraska's defense has been great the last two weeks, and Illinois has been very good on defense in their home games this year. Neither team has a good option at all at quarterback either.

This game likely won't be pretty, and I think it stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I had to wait for the lineups and the umpire here, but when all that information came out, it confirmed my initial lean.

Tampa Bay is sitting out Corey Dickerson, Kevin Kiermaier, and Lucas Duda here. The Orioles are without both Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo. There are some very questionable hitters in both of these lineups.

The home plate umpire here is Vic Carrapazza. He is one of the best under umpires in the league. He'll help both of these guys who typically struggle with walks.

Unders do very well in the last weekend of the MLB regular season. Teams under .500 against each other are 60% to the under in the last ten years when the total is 9 or higher. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The Green Bay Packers offense is riddled with injuries right now. The fact that they have to play on Thursday night can't have made the coaching staff very happy when they are so badly banged up. They needed the full time to recover.

While the injury to Randall Cobb (questionable) gets more attention, the Packers offensive line problems are the biggest issue here. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 13 times already this year, and the team has multiple backups injured on the offensive front as well. No one unit in the NFL is more banged up than this Packers offensive line.

Mike Glennon is a mess at quarterback for the Bears. He never throws the ball downfield, which greatly limits the Bears upside on offense, and it hurts Jordan Howard's ability to run the ball as well since he can't stretch the defense with his arm. 

Green Bay has slowed their pace down a bunch this year (likely due to injuries). They rank 22nd in the league in tempo. Chicago ranks 31st in the league in pace. 

The slow pace here is a key and the defensive lines having the advantage is as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Atlanta Braves take on the New York Mets here. Sean Newcomb takes the mound for the Braves. Newcomb is a guy with a fairly high upside, and the Mets have struggled of late against lefties. It's no surprise, since the Mets are without almost all of their best hitters from the start of the year.

This game fits a late season totals (under) trend. Both teams are out of the playoff contention and we'll see a lot of new faces in the lineup here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chase Field is a great place for hitters with the roof open. In the past ten years, the over is 56% at Chase Field when the roof is open and the total is 9.5 or lower. That number is above 60% in the past two years alone.

Matt Moore and Robbie Ray are two lefties who give up a bunch of hard contact. Moore has a 6.51 ERA on the road this year, and he's facing a DBacks team that should have all its regulars back for Tuesday's contest. This team has some tremendous power hitters against lefties. Moore has allowed 26 homers this year.

Robbie Ray is certainly a good pitcher, but his home/road splits are very interesting. Ray has a 4.37 ERA at home this year vs. a road ERA of 1.79. Last year, he had a 5.36 ERA at home. He struggles at Chase Field more often than not.

At a good price on a key number, I'll take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles are going to miss the playoffs this year. The Pittsburgh Pirates are out of the playoffs as well. 

I ran some extensive queries on the last week of the regular season in baseball and found that two teams who are out of the playoff race usually equates to value on the under in the last few games of the season.

From game 156 of the season (162 game season), the under is hitting 61.2% in the last ten years when both teams have won 50% of their games or less and the total is at least 7 runs. This one fits that angle.

Williams has pitched great at home all season. He is good at keeping the ball in the yard with his sinker, and the Orioles rely on homers quite a bit. 

The Pirates offense is a mess right now, and Kevin Gausman has been very good late in the season.

The under is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 interleague road games. The under is 8-0 in Williams last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record. A 12-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs are first in the NFL in yards per play at 7.6. That is a full yard better than the second best team in the NFL so far this season.

Kansas City is a much better offense than they have been in the past. Alex  Smith is able to be more aggressive now because he has the weapons around him. With Tyreek Hill as a big play option on the outside and Kareem Hunt making a big splash in the backfield, the Chiefs have home run threats all around. Travis Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the NFL, and I don't think the Chargers have anyone who can cover him. Los Angeles is without Verrett at cornerback, and this is a game where they will badly miss him.

The LA Chargers are still good on offense with Rivers competing at a high level. The offense around him is a lot healthier than it has been at most times in the past few years. The Chargers are 10th in the NFL in yards per play.

Expect a lot of big plays from both teams in this one. Perception of the Chiefs still being a defensive team that plays low scoring games has held this number down. The over is 4-0 in KC's last 4 road games. 

Take the over.

*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cleveland Indians send Corey Kluber to the hill on Sunday. It's hard to put into words how amazing he has been since June 1. Kluber has allowed 2 runs or less in 17 of his last 21 starts. Most impressive to me is his strikeout/walk ratio of late. Kluber has allowed only 3 walks in his last six games. During that span, he has 56 strikeouts. Amazing stuff. 

Mike Leake has been very good for Seattle since coming over in a trade. Leake has a FIP of 2.45 or lower in each of his four starts with Seattle. Leake has allowed only a .219 wOBA against the Indians lineup in a decent sample size. 

What about Kluber against the Mariners? In a huge sample size, the Mariners has a wOBA of .282 against Kluber.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Two good quarterbacks with a lot of weapons around them face defenses without a bunch of key players in this one. 

Vic Beasley and Courtney Upshaw are expected to miss this one for Atlanta, and those are two key guys. That should give Matt Stafford more time to throw. Stafford has proven at this point that he is a very good quarterback when given time to throw.

On the Detroit side, Jarrod Davis is expected to miss this one and that is huge since I consider him one of the most important players on this team. Safety Tavon Wilson is a key guy who would have played a major role in slowing down the Falcons pass attack, but he's expected to miss this one too.

Non-divisional overs of 52.5 or lower in domes have cashed at 56% in the NFL between week 2 and week 12 (the percentage gets lower late in the year as games mean more).

Both of these are big play offenses, and I expect some blown assignments and lapses by the defenses in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Iowa ranks 27th in the nation in highest percentage of running plays compared to overall offensive plays. The Hawkeyes are going to come out and try to run the ball consistently at Penn State. I don't see Iowa taking many chances in the passing game here.

Penn State is playing slower on offense than they did last year, and Iowa is always a team that takes their time with the football.

The Iowa front seven is solid, and I think they'll make Barkley (a great runner) work hard for his yards here.

There is bad blood here after Penn State said Iowa quit in last year's game. Iowa should bring a strong effort, and I think that should help the under. 

The under is 5-1 in Iowa's last 6 home games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats are playing slower this year than they did last season. They've also been much improved on defense. They rank second in the nation in run defense.

The Florida Gators defense hasn't been great in the first two games, but they faced two pretty good teams. Florida should settle in and be a top 20 defense by the end of the year.

The Wildcats offense is running the ball 63% of the time on their plays this year. Florida is playing 122nd fastest out of 130 teams in the country. It's a combination that should equal a lot of ticking clock and less possessions for each team. 

Kentucky is extremely hungry to stop their losing streak against Florida, and this should be a good environment for football Saturday. 

My number here was 42.5, so I see several points of value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers rolled up some amazing offensive stats against an FCS school, and in their two games against FBS opponents they have scored 13 (against S Carolina) and 3 points (against Purdue). Now, they face easily the best defense they have seen so far this year. 

Missouri ranked in the top ten in tempo all last year. They are outside the top 30 so far this season. They have clearly slowed down. Drew Lock has been extremely inefficient at quarterback.

Auburn talked about playing faster a lot in the offseason, but the Tigers are playing slower than the average team in the country. The offense needs more work, and they run the ball at a very high rate (keeps the clock ticking).

The Auburn defense is first in the nation in yards per play allowed. Auburn's offense is 102nd in the nation in yards per play. Auburn should control this game, and their defense should do the heavy lifting.

This total is too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys offense is performing like a well-oiled machine right now. Oklahoma State is averaging 8.64 yards per play through three games. That's a tremendous number. The Cowboys like to play fast as well. Their overall tempo numbers are skewed a bit right now, because they have been blowing teams out so badly that they slow down a lot by the end of the game. 

TCU ranks 33rd quickest in the country in tempo, and their offense has been much better so far this year. I expect them to be able to move the ball and score plenty here on an Oklahoma State defense that I believe is overrated right now.

I see a typical Big 12 shootout in Stillwater on Saturday.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Appalachian State is a very good mid-major type team. The Mountaineers offense leans very heavily though on running back Jalin Moore. Moore is questionable and his coach said he will be a gametime decision for this one. Moore had a walking boot on earlier this week, so he is clearly in a lot of pain. Depth at running back is a problem for App State this year. 

Appalachian State has one of the best defenses of any of the smaller name teams in the country. The Mountaineers have a very good secondary full of veterans. 

Wake Forest's offense put up big numbers against Presbyterian and Utah State. Appalachian State's defense will be a much tougher unit to face. 

Wake Forest's defense has been very solid the last couple years, and Dave Clawson is a defensive-minded coach.

I think Appalachian State comes ready to play here in a rare chance to host a "big" guy from their state. Tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't like to make a habit of betting under this low of a number, but I like the value here. I think this game stays in the 30's. 

Vanderbilt's offense is definitely better than they were a couple years ago, but the Commodores are going to get a wakeup test when they face the best defenses in the country. I don't see Vanderbilt being able to run on this very strong Bama defensive line. I still don't trust Shurmur to be the guy to make big plays in this spot either.

Alabama's offense is good, but Vanderbilt's defense has exceeded my expectations in a big way. Vanderbilt played a good MTSU offense and shut them down. They completely shut down Kansas State last week too. Vanderbilt ranks in the top five in the nation in all major categories.

Both teams play among the 30 slowest paces of play in college football.

I'll be surprised if Vanderbilt scores more than 10, and I see this as a game where both teams run the ball a lot.

The under is 55-25 in Vandy's last 80 conference contests.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* UCF is much more prepared on offense this year. Milton has a year under his belt, and he'll be much better in Scott Frost's fast paced offense. UCF put up 61 points in game one this year against FIU. They won't put up a huge number like that against Maryland, but I do think they'll get a lot of yards and scoring opportunities here.

Maryland's offense will be one of the most improved in the country this year. UCF lost a lot defensively from a year ago, and they are particularly weak at the linebacker and secondary spots. Maryland's young quarterback Hill should be able to put up some nice numbers on this UCF team.

I considered this line early in the week, and saw money coming on the under and waited. At this price, I'm willing to fly in the face of the line move and take the over. My number here is 67 points. 

There isn't expected to be any weather issues here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I've played the Tulsa over in each of the last two weeks. The final score in each of those games has topped 100 points. I don't think this one will get that high, but I have to play the over again here.

New Mexico will likely have a backup quarterback here, but the Lobos rushing attack has been great in the last few years. I think they'll be able to break big plays here too. Tulsa is easily dead last in the nation in rushing yards per carry allowed. Tulsa is allowing a whopping 7.57 yards per carry on the year, which is the worst in the country by more than half a yard! 

Tulsa's pace of play is the single fastest of any team in the country. They will be looking to play quickly and take advantage of a New Mexico defense that lacks high end talent. Tulsa is 12th in the nation in total offense.

The over is 20-6 in Tulsa's last 26 home games. 

Look for plenty of big plays from both teams.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* These are two option teams up against each other. Both teams run the ball more than 75% of the time. With that kind of rate of running the football, you have to be extremely efficient on offense to score a lot of points. Tulane plays at a slower than average pace. Army plays at one of the three slowest paces of any team in the country.

The practice these teams get against option attacks every day makes the defenses perform much better against the option than a typical defense. This is where they are accustomed to seeing.

I had this number at 42.

Take the under big here. 

*4 Star Play Under* By the long term trends, taking the under when two teams are playing that are fighting for a playoff spot late in the season has been a good move. 

From game 147 of the season, when two teams with a win percentage of 50% or higher meet and the total is 8.5 or higher, with the wind blowing in at all, the under is a whopping 64-28 (70% Wins). 

The wind will be howling in from right center field here at 20 to 25 mph. That's a significant wind to where it will be very hard to hit it out of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. It's possible for the big sluggers like Aaron Judge, but there won't be any cheap ones.

Jose Berrios and C.C. Sabathia have both been solid this year, and these two bullpens have been pitching well of late.

The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 20-7-2 in Sabathia's last 29 home starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Orioles have the worst weighted on base average in the majors in the last two weeks. Baltimore has been very streaky this year on offense, and they have been ice cold of late. Boston is dealing with some injuries right now. Hanley Ramirez is questionable for this one. The Red Sox are worse than average in the majors in wOBA in the last couple weeks as well.

Mike Muchlinski is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. It also helps a lot to get the wind blowing in from center field at 10-12 mph during this game with moderate temperatures. 

Drew Pomeranz has been solid all year. Kevin Gausman has been very good of late, and he has a stellar track record against AL East opponents, especially at home.

The under is 4-0-1 in Gausman's last 5 starts vs. the Red Sox. The under is 3-0-1 in Pomeranz's last 4 starts vs. the Orioles. A combined 7-0 trend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The LA Rams are going to play fast this year. They have a brand new coach and system, and it already showed to be a big positive for Jared Goff. Goff definitely has potential, and he has good weapons now in Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp. Todd Gurley is still a quality runner as well. I think the Rams offense is much improved this year.

The Redskins have a bottom six or eight defense in the NFL, and I think the Rams can have another nice game here on offense. 

The Rams are dealing with a bunch of injuries in the secondary right now. The Redskins didn't look great in week one on offense, but I think they'll be better here. They still have a solid amount of talent at the wide receiver spots.

In weeks 2 and 3 in the NFL, when the total is 45.5 or lower, and wind speeds are forecasted to average 9 mph or less, the over is 132-95 in the last 227 contests. 

Jerome Bogers' is the main referee here. He has been an over machine because his crew calls a lot of pass interference and holding on the defensive secondary. The over is 76-58 (56.7%) in Bogers' games as referee.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber here, and it would be hard to overstate how amazing he has been since June. In 16 of his last 20 starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less. Kluber is averaging nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings, and only 1.66 walks per nine innings. He should continue his dominance in this one.

Danny Duffy comes off the disabled list here. Duffy is a guy who nibbles on the corners though and home plate umpire Angel Hernandez is one of the better under umpires in baseball. That should be a big help.

Winds blowing in on a moderate temperature day help the under as well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The New Orleans Saints defense has consistently been the worst in the NFL the last couple years, and they are likely to be right down there again this season. Sam Bradford threw for 346 yards and beat this secondary deep multiple times in game one. Obviously, Bradford isn't normally a guy who completes deep passes like that, so that is a major warning sign.

Tom Brady and the Patriots offense will definitely have a better plan of attack for this one than they did last game. New England should utilize Gronkowski a lot in this one since New Orleans has struggled with pass catching tight ends in recent years. It's also a spot for Brandin' Cooks to have a big game against his old team.

The Patriots defense looks like they are in trouble this year to me. They allowed Alex Smith far too long to throw last game, and he picked them apart. Now, Dont'a Hightower, the team's most important player on defense, is out for this game. How are things going to improve against Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome? 

Games played in domes in the first two months of the season where the home team is the underdog have gone over the total 61% of the time in the past ten years in the NFL.

The over is 4-0-1 in the Patriots last 5 following a double digit loss at home. The over is 5-0 in the Pats last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in the Saints last 4 games. The over is 13-0 in the last 13 games in the NFL when one team is coming off a Thursday game and another off a Monday game  when the game is week 11 or earlier in the season. Also, in game two of the season, when a non-division team is a home dog of 3.5 points or more and the total is 40 or higher, the over is 12-0. In all, a 38-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Vanderbilt's defense impressed me in a big way against MTSU in their season opener. The Commodores offense is a bit better than it was in recent seasons, but Kansas State's defense is easily the best unit they have faced yet. 

Both of these teams play at a methodical pace, and I see this one having a lot of running plays where the clock will be moving throughout. 

Kansas State doesn't have any big playmakers on the outside and Vanderbilt is lacking in that area as well. They will rely on the running games a lot, and both front sevens on defense should have the edge.

I waited for a move up on this total during the week, and we finally got it. Time to play this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have played at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. Expect that to continue. Phillip Montgomery is working hard to get this team to be the fastest every single year. Chad President looked much better in this offense last week, and Tulsa has a terrific running game.

Toledo's Logan Woodside is a tremendous passer. Woodside is going to carve up the MAC this year, and I think he'll put up big numbers here too. Tulsa is dead last in yards per game allowed in the country at 618 yards allowed per contest. I'm willing to give them a pass for getting torched by Oklahoma State, but allowing 598 yards against Louisiana Lafayette is a big problem. 

Toledo's tempo is slightly faster than average, and Tulsa is the fastest in the country. This is a high total, but it's high for a good reason. I think there's a good chance this game gets to 80 points.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers offense has been a big disappointment so far this year. Still, this is an overreaction in the totals market. Western Kentucky still has a veteran quarterback who is one of the top two quarterbacks in the league. They still have a good collection of running backs as well. They should get things figured out.

Louisiana Tech is a team that has a very weak secondary. The Bulldogs allowed 57 points against Mississippi State last week. On the offensive side of the ball, Louisiana Tech should be very good as they have been every year under Skip Holtz.

In the last 3 meetings between these two teams, the final scores have added to 79 points, 107 points, and 102 points. I realize Western Kentucky has a new coaching staff and La Tech a new quarterback, but I'm convinced in Conference USA play these will still be two very good offenses.

I'll look to profit from an overreaction to Western Kentucky's slow start to the season on offense.

The over is 8-0 in LA Tech's last 8 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 September games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 40 points or more in their last game. The over is 5-0 in Western Kentucky's last 5 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two. A 26-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star College Football TOP Total of the WEEK* East Carolina just fired their defensive coordinator. I don't expect it to help, at least not right away. East Carolina plays at a very quick tempo, and their defense ends up being on the field a lot. This defense is very thin and I expect them to give up huge yardage and points on a weekly basis. How bad have they been so far? In two games they are allowing an eye popping 616.5 yards per game. That's second worst in the country. 

Virginia Tech is pushing the tempo even more than they did a year ago. Jackson looks good in this offense. The Hokies put up 54 points by themselves against East Carolina last year, and I think they can get close to 50 again here. 

The pace of this game combined with the fact that one of the defenses is one of the five worst in the country makes this too low of a number. In fact, my number is a full touchdown higher.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* This wasn't necessarily a game I had circled to play on the open, but this line has dropped so low that there is too much value for me to avoid it. 

Air Force has one returning starter on defense from last year. The Falcons are going to be badly overmatched when Michigan's offensive line goes against their defensive line. 

Michigan returns only one starter on defense from last year as well. The Wolverines are good on defense, but they aren't as good as a year ago.

Jim Harbaugh is always willing to run up the score on teams. I think Michigan will be able to put up a lot of points here. Michigan getting to 40 points or more wouldn't surprise me at all. 

Arion Worthman is a great fit for the Air Force option offense, and the Falcons should be able to do enough to get this over this very low total.

The over is 6-0-1 in Michigan's last 7 non-conference games. The over is 5-0-1 in Michigan's last 5 September games. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 following an ATS loss. A 20-1 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Andrew Cashner has allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. Cashner has been particularly good at home. Cashner has an ERA under 3 at home on the year. He has allowed only 8 runs in his last 5 starts. 

Cashner has been much better in the second half of the season. He has lowered his walk rate drastically. He allowed a .316 weighted on base average in the first half of the season. He has allowed only a .269 weighted on base average in the second half of the year.

Felix Hernandez will start here and will be on a pitch count. Hernandez threw it well in Triple A starts. Andrew Albers is expected to be first in relief here, and he has been very solid this year. 

The Rangers are badly beaten up right now. Adrian Beltre is playing badly injured and may or may not be in the lineup. Mike Napoli is out with an injury. Carlos Gomez is doubtful with an injury.

This game means a lot to both teams. I think the total is a little too high.

The under is 6-0 in Cashner's last 6 home starts. The under is 8-3 in Hernandez's last 11 starts vs. the Rangers.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Angel Hernandez is a good under umpire. He always ranks in the top 10 or 12 umpires in the league in percentage of pitches called a strike. He'll help both pitchers in this one.

Tampa Bay has been ice cold of late. The Rays have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 9 games. Jaime Garcia is a middle of the road lefty, and the Rays have been bad against left-handed pitching this season.

Chris Archer is having the best season of his career if you look at his underlying stats. His FIP is 3.36 and xFIP is 3.30. He has pitched well against the Yankees in the recent past, but hasn't gotten any run support.

In the last 25 games of the regular season, teams with a win percentage of 45% or higher that are playing the final game of a series see the total go under at a 55.5% clip (in the last 5 seasons). 

The under is 6-0 in Archer's last 6 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 10-0 combined angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire for this game. Meals is one of the best over umpires in the game. That is a big boost here especially since we have two starting pitchers very capable of getting hit hard, and two bullpens who are exhausted and limping to the finish.

Dylan Covey is in over his head in the majors. The White Sox called him up too soon. Covey has an 8.08 ERA and a 7.94 FIP. He is allowing more than 3 home runs per nine innings. He is walking almost as many guys as he strikes out. 

Sam Gaviglio isn't as bad as Covey, but he isn't good. He doesn't pitch deep into games, and he is prone to allowing big innings too often.

The White Sox have been the worst bullpen in baseball in the last two months. In the past 30 days, the Royals are in the bottom five bullpens in baseball. There should be scoring chances late.

The White Sox have scored 8 runs or more in each of their last three games. Abreu is on fire and Anderson and Moncada are swinging it well also. 

The Royals have potential to score in bunches and they'll get chances here against Covey and a terrible bullpen.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Ariel Miranda has been getting absolutely blown up on the road. Miranda has a 6.16 ERA on the road this year. He has allowed a mind-boggling 23 home runs on the road in only 73 innings pitched. His weighted on base average allowed is .376 away from home. 

The Texas Rangers are very capable of putting up a big number, and Miranda's extremely high walk rate and high home run rate allowed make this a very dangerous spot for him.

Cole Hamels isn't the same guy he was a few years ago. He averages only 5 strikeouts per nine innings. He is a pitch to contact guy now, and his hard contact rate has gone from 28% two years ago to 35.4% this year. 

The Mariners offense is very solid against left handed pitching. The wind is blowing out here on a warm night in Texas.

The over is 8-0 in the Rangers last 8 games following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 during game one of a series. A 20-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bears are going to run the football early and often in this one. Jordan Howard is a good back and I suspect he'll get a good amount of yards in this game. Still, the Bears don't have good red zone options and as the field tightens up in the red zone I think they'll need to settle for field goals. 

The Atlanta Falcons aren't as good offensively outside the dome and the turf. The Bears defense is better than they showed a year ago. Injuries really held this team back last year. 

I believe Kyle Shanahan moving on will hurt Atlanta's offense at least some in the interim. He really helped Matt Ryan and this offense reach lofty heights. There will likely be some interim growing pains.

The Bears offense is extremely limited in the passing game, and I see this as a high posted total all things considered.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Ravens plan to start Joe Flacco here, but Flacco back has been a big problem all offseason. It's hard to expect a lot from him here. The biggest problem for the Ravens is they have no good option as a backup either.

Andy Dalton is a middle of the road NFL quarterback, and he's up against a good Ravens pass rush here. I don't expect the Bengals to be able to move the ball consistently in this one. 

Games between these two teams are very hard hitting and typically defensive. The highest scoring game of the last three meetings was 40 points. 

I don't expect either team to be playing at a particularly fast pace. Look for both defenses to do a good job forcing their opponent to field goals instead of touchdowns.

In week one in the NFL, conference games with a spread of 4 points or less are 66-39 to the under (63%) in the last 105 contests.

The under is 6-0 in the Bengals last 6 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-0 in the Bengals last 4 games overall. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Carolina Gamecocks offense is clearly much better with Jake Bentley at quarterback than it has been in the past couple seasons. They also have an improved offensive line. South Carolina didn't play quick against NC State, but they were definitely playing at a quicker tempo than they did a year ago.

Missouri should rank in the top five in the country in tempo this season. Drew Lock knows Josh Heupel's offense really well now, and he'll put up big numbers. On the other side, Missouri's defense is probably the worst in the SEC. This secondary is going to be torched on a week to week basis. The combination of an extremely fast paced efficient offense and a really bad defense will make for some very high scoring games involving Missouri this year.

This one is a little higher than I was hoping to pay, but I think this could easily be a 45-38 type of game. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Auburn/Clemson TV MONEYMAKER* The Auburn Tigers defense was extremely dominant last weekend. I'm very impressed by this front seven and their ability to get into the backfield.

While Clemson has plenty of talent on offense, there is no doubt they lost a bunch of key contributors from last year's team. I believe this Clemson offense will be good over time, but I think they might struggle against top defenses early in the season.

Clemson's defensive line is the best defensive front in the country. The Auburn offensive line is going to have their hands full in this one. Auburn only has one of their two star running backs available for this game. At quarterback, Jarrett Stidham has tons of potential, but he didn't look comfortable last week against Georgia Southern. This is obviously a much tougher task for Stidham and Auburn offense, and I don't think yards will come easy for them in this one.

I see this being a tight hard fought game between two very good defenses. The under is 4-0 in Auburn's last 4 games after gaining 450 yards or more in their previous game. The under is 3-0-1 in Auburn's last 4 against the ACC. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. An 11-1 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks are going to play really quickly again this year. I like Herbert quite a bit in this system. He got a lot of time last year as a freshman, and he is going to end up being a very good quarterback. Oregon's collection of running backs is about as good as anyone in the country. 

Nebraska has an upgrade at quarterback in Tanner Lee and they'll run Mike Riley's pro style offense more efficiently than they did with Armstrong at quarterback. The Cornhuskers were torched on defense though by Arkansas State, and the Red Wolves are nothing special offensively. I don't see Nebraska having much success at all slowing down Oregon here. Oregon had 482 yards on Nebraska last year, and this Ducks offense is definitely better this season.

The weather looks for this one with only 5 mph winds and a temperature around 75 degrees.

The over is 47-17-1 in the Ducks last 65 home games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* UL Lafayette allowed 48 points and 514 yards against SE Louisiana last week. In fact, Lafayette was very fortunate to win that game against the FCS opponent. 

What would make anyone think UL Lafayette is going to slow down Tulsa's offense? Yes Tulsa struggled a bit last week against Oklahoma State, but they are stepping way down in class in a home game against a Sun Belt opponent here.

Tulsa's quarterbacks will look a lot better than they did last week, because this ULL secondary is really bad. Tulsa pushes the pace and will rank in the top ten in the country in terms of tempo this year. This feels like one of those games where Tulsa could put up a big number to get things back on track.

UL Lafayette will have a lot of possessions and I do expect them to break through with some scoring in this one. With a very fast tempo, this is a low total.

The over is 20-7 in Tulsa's last 27 home games. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Indiana played at a lightning fast tempo against Ohio State in game one. Their offensive efficiency was clearly hurt by Ohio State's elite defensive line. They won't face another defensive line that talented this year. 

Indiana should rank as one of the top ten fastest offenses in the nation at the end of the year. Richard Lagow looked very comfortable in this offense, and he has some very good receivers at his disposal as well.

Virginia prefers to play fast and Mendenhall and Anae have looked to push the tempo last year and in previous seasons at BYU. Kurt Benkert gives the team a very solid quarterback who should be much better in year two of their system.

It's all about tempo here for me. If you are going to put out a total this low in a game that should have a bunch of extra plays, I have to take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders struggled offensively last week. I don't expect them to struggle on offense very often this year though. MTSU was great on offense under offensive coordinator Tony Franklin last year, and they'll be very good again this year. Brent Stockstill is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in college football, and Richie James is a top five receiver in the country. 

Syracuse is going to push the pace in a big way as long as Dino Babers is their head coach. Syracuse has a great fit for the system at quarterback in Eric Dungey. The offense stumbled a bit last year when Dungey was injured, but when he is healthy Syracuse is capable of putting up huge numbers. 

Though this is a high number, these were both teams that I had highlighted as "over" teams in the right spots this season. The tempo of this game should be extremely quick, meaning both quarterbacks will have a lot of chances to make big plays.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* Boston College is trying to play faster this year. They will get more snaps off than they have the last couple years, but their offense is still really bad. Wake Forest has some major offensive deficiencies too.

These are two head coaches who are great defensive-minded guys, but they don't have good offensive coordinators on their staffs. The last two years the games between these two have combined to be 17-17 (in 2 full games). 

I considered avoiding this one because BC is trying to pick up the pace this year, but when the number was pushed up this high, I had to take the under.

The under is 25-12 in Wake Forest's last 37 conference games. The under is 62-30-2 in BC's last 94 games overall.

Another sloppy low scoring contest should be expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is more about tempo and running clock than anything else. Buffalo beat Army 23-20 in overtime last year. That was a game that saw Army throw the ball 10 times and run the ball 67 times. Army lost their top receiver from a year ago, and I think they'll be extremely run heavy again this year. 

Army always ranks in the bottom 3 or 4 in the country in terms of pace of play. The Black Knights will be running the ball and eating up a bunch of clock with their long drives. If they get stopped on downs or have to kick a field goal at any point that is a big boost to the under. 

Buffalo's defense looked much improved against Minnesota last week. The Bulls have a coach in Leipold who is accustomed to preparing for the triple option and I think that helps them a good amount here. The Bulls rank in the bottom half of the nation in tempo as well.

Too much ticking clock and slow tempo for me to pass on this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* We have two starting pitchers in this one who are very capable of getting blown up at any point. 

Bartolo Colon has a 6.25 ERA and a 5.05 SIERA on the season thus far. Colon has a swinging strike rate of just 5.4%. He is allowing 1.68 homers per nine innings. This Tampa Bay Rays team has a ton of power.

Jake Odorizzi's advanced numbers are even worse than Bartolo Colon's. His FIP is 5.97 and his SIERA is 5.19. Odorizzi is giving up a lot of hard contact and a ton of fly balls this year. He is allowing 2.15 homers per nine innings. He's been at his worst in July and August, where he's combined to have an ERA of 6.34. 

I'm not high on either bullpen, and I think they'll have to be in this game for quite a while after subpar starting pitching. 

The over is 7-0 in Odorizzi's last 7 home starts. The over is 8-0 in his last 8 starts on 5 days of rest. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 24-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total* The Auburn Tigers have a new offensive coordinator. They are going to play much faster this season. Auburn brought in Chip Lindsay to run this offense, and he constantly talks about tempo and changing the way they play. 

Auburn is not only going to play faster, but they have a much better quarterback for their system. Jarrett Stidham should be tremendous in this system. Stidham has all the talent you could ever hope for, and I think he'll make good decisions in this fast paced offense. He'll be helped by a great tailback tandem of Pettway and Johnson. 

The Auburn defense isn't going to be as good as they were last year. I certainly don't expect Georgia Southern to do a bunch of damage here, but they should be able to help out a little.

Last year, Auburn hung 51 points and 706 yards on Arkansas State, their lone Sun Belt opponent. This Georgia Southern team has a worse defense than Arkansas State. The Sun Belt defensive line will be overmatched by Auburn. This Auburn Tigers offense is going to play faster and be even more efficient on offense.

It won't surprise me if Auburn scores 52 by themselves (they should get into the 40's at least), and I see this one as a number that is far too low.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have had a lot of turmoil in the offseason, and they should look like a very different team when the season gets underway. 

Ole Miss brought in Sam Houston State's offensive coordinator Phil Longo to run the offense. He learned under Mike Leach, and he wants this team playing as quickly as possible. 

Shea Patterson is a quality quarterback, who should fit well in this system. He was considered a top five quarterback in his class a couple years ago. 

Patterson and the Rebels offense will face a South Alabama defense that is overmatched talent wise in this one. They simply aren't accustomed to playing teams with this style of play combined with this kind of talent. 

I'll keep this one to a 3 star play since Ole Miss is a bit of an unknown with lots of offseason turmoil, but I do believe this number is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Max Scherzer starts here for the Nationals and he has allowed one run or less in 9 of his last 15 starts. Scherzer has been absolutely dominant on the season. 

Milwaukee's offense hasn't been nearly as good in the past month or two as they were early in the season. The under is 35-13-4 in their last 52 games overall. A lot of the young hitters have been struggling of late.

Woodruff isn't a great pitcher, but missing Bryce Harper in the middle of the order is definitely hurting the Nationals pretty badly against righties. 

Both teams have well rested bullpens and that is a plus here. 

Phil Cuzzi is the umpire here and Cuzzi is a great under umpire because of the amount of times he gives pitchers the corners of the strike zone.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago White Sox offense is miserable against right handed pitching. Two of their best young hitters in Moncada and Delmonico are out for this game with an injury. Jose Abreu is listed as questionable as well after suffering a minor injury on Friday night. 

Chris Archer is putting together the best season in his career by a large margin. Archer is fanning 11.29 batters per nine innings. He has a 3.66 ERA and a very good 3.17 FIP on the season. He should be great in this matchup.

Carlos Rodon has been excellent overall in his last five starts, and he's up against a free swinging Tampa Bay team that has struggled against lefties this year. Rodon can rack up the punchouts, and his upside is unquestionable.

Blaser is a good under umpire and the wind will be blowing in here.

The under is 3-0-1 in Tampa Bay's last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in Archer's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in the White Sox last 7 home games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in the White Sox last 4 vs. the AL East. A 22-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks have an improved offense this year, but I think this is an overreaction by the oddsmakers. Jake Bentley and the Gamecocks offense aren't going to be playing fast. In fact, offensive coaches were recently quoted as saying they want to use trickery instead of tempo. They should continue to be one of the slowest paced offenses in the country.

NC State ranked in the bottom 1/3 of teams in the country in terms of tempo last year as well. The Wolfpack have some good players at the skill positions on offense, but this offensive line isn't very impressive.

South Carolina's offensive line should be absolutely dominated by a tremendous NC State defensive front in this one. The Wolfpack defensive line is one of the top five defensive fronts in the country. They'll cause a lot of problems in this one.

The weather could be a minor factor here too. The winds are forecasted to be 12 to 14 mph sustained with gusts up to 18 or 20 mph. That is enough to make teams a little more cautious in their game plan and keep the clock ticking.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Friday Fast CASH* The Milwaukee Brewers start Jimmy Nelson here, and he is a guy who has had a brilliant season this year. He has a 3.75 ERA and a 3.10 FIP, so he has actually been unlucky overall. Nelson is striking out 10 batters every nine innings, and he's cut his walk rate in half this year.

Tanner Roark started the season terribly, but he has been much more solid of late. Roark has allowed three runs or fewer in all but one of his last 7 starts. The other game he allowed 4 runs. 

The Brewers bats have cooled off a lot in recent weeks, and the Nationals aren't nearly as good against right handed pitching without Bryce Harper in the middle of the lineup.

Mark Ripperger is the umpire here, and he's one of the top six or eight under umpires in baseball. He consistently calls a high percentage of strikes, and his strikeout/walk ratio is excellent.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams put up 58 points against Oregon State. Colorado State has actually scored 46 points or more in five straight games dating back to last season. I don't expect them to score that many here, but I do think they'll move the ball a lot on a Colorado defense that returns only three starters from a year ago. This Buffaloes defense was one of the best in the country last year, and they will regress significantly this season. Mike Bobo's Colorado State team has a bunch of weapons on offense.

Colorado ranked in the top 15 in the country in tempo last year. The Buffaloes should still be very good on offense with Steven Montez under center this year. He has great skill position players around him. The Colorado receivers are the best in the Pac 12. Phillip Lindsay is one of the more underrated running backs in the country. Colorado had 578 yards of offense last year on Colorado State. They'll have a bunch again here.

The weather looks good for this one. While the price isn't a great value, I believe there is a good reason to expect a shootout in a close game here (overtime isn't out of the question either). 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I wouldn't play this under if it weren't for the weather report here, but the weather is too big of a factor for me to pass this up. The forecast here calls for an average wind of 20 mph with heavy rain throughout the game from the remnants of Hurricane Harvey. High wind and rain can really lower scoring. Past games with similar conditions have stayed under at a high rate.

These are two teams who rely a lot on the passing game, but they'll have to run the football a lot more than they normally do in these conditions. I think that gives the defenses a better chance. 

These two defenses aren't good, but with the opposing offenses being one dimensional and these conditions combined with an extremely high posted total, I'm taking the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in baseball. Combine Doug Eddings being behind the plate and Zack Greinke pitching at home with a total posted this high, and I like the under.

Zack Greinke has a dazzling 2.36 ERA at home this year, and opponents are hitting a miserable .197 against him. Greinke is allowing only a .238 OBP at home. Those are dominating numbers. 

Kenta Maeda has allowed a single run or less in five of his last eight starts. After starting the season poorly he has really come on.

This is a get away day game and I expect a big bat or two to be out of this lineup.

Eddings will help both pitchers and I expect a relatively low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Wednesday MLB Best Bet* The Miami Marlins offense has some real pop in the middle of the order. Stanton is absolutely on fire like no one we've seen in recent years when it comes to hitting home runs. Marcell Ozuna is very underrated and I really like Yelich as well.

The Washington Nationals are amazing against lefties, and that has gotten even better with Trea Turner and Jayson Werth coming back to the lineup. The top six in this order are all really good against lefties. 

Adam Conley is a guy who walks too many guys and is prone to the big inning. In a relatively small sample size, the Nationals have an amazing .477 weighted on base average against Conley. It's a very tough matchup for him.

Stephen Strasburg is very good, but the Marlins have given him trouble in the past, particularly when pitching at home. The Marlins have a very good .347 wOBA against Strasburg. Stanton has 3 homers against him and Ozuna has 2. 

The over is helped a lot by Sam Holbrook being behind the dish. He consistently rates as one of the best over umpires in the business. 

The over is 15-4-2 in Conley's last 21 starts. The over is 37-16-4 in Strasburg's last 57 home starts. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Baltimore Orioles offense is on fire right now. Baltimore ranks first in the majors by a mile with a team batting average of .300 in the past month. The Orioles are well known for their ability to hit a bunch of homers, but hitting for average has been a nice surprise for the team.

Ariel Miranda starts for the Mariners and he is allowing more than 3 homers per nine innings on the road this year. Miranda has walked nearly a batter an inning in his last few starts, and he is in a very dangerous spot here against a red hot Baltimore team with tons of power.

Ubaldo Jimenez is a really bad pitcher. Jimenez occasionally fires a good game, but his underlying stats show how bad he is. Jimenez has a 6.57 ERA and his FIP is 5.64. He constantly is pitching with people on base and his wOBA at home this year is a brutal .415.

Look for lots of runs in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play on Over* Chris Smith has been a career minor league pitcher. The A's are giving him a try in the big leagues, but he just isn't good enough. Smith has a 5.56 ERA on the year, and he's been fortunate to have that. His FIP is 6.36 and he is giving up 2.27 homers per nine innings. He also walks more than 3 batters per nine innings and strikes out only 5.15 per nine innings. His hard contact rate has been extremely high. Smith has allowed 4 runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts. 

Troy Scribner is an extreme fly ball pitcher. Scribner has been ridiculously lucky so far in the bigs. Scribner has a 4.00 ERA, but his FIP is 6.57 and his xFIP is 5.96. Scribner carries an insane .116 batting average on balls in play so far this year. Basically, everyone is hitting it right at the defenders so far when Scribner is pitching. That won't continue forever.

Both of these pitchers have real blowup potential. Both offenses have been better of late. The Angels have scored 5 runs or more in 7 of their last 11 contests. The A's have scored 6 runs or more in four of their last six contests.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings calls strikes at a higher percentage than any other umpire in the majors. Eddings has seen all of his games with a total of 8 or lower go over the total this year, but games higher than that have been solid under plays. More importantly, Eddings has a strikeout/walk ratio of 3.33, which is MUCH higher than the average umpire. He likes punching guys out. 

Tyler Skaggs has a lot of potential and he's been good at home in his career. The Astros offense has definitely been in a funk of late. Houston has scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 13 games.

Brad Peacock is striking out 11.85 batters per nine innings. Eddings should help him a good amount. The Angels offense isn't deep at all. The under is 21-7-4 in their last 31 vs. a right handed pitcher. 

The under is 7-1-1 in Skaggs' last 9 home starts. Take the under.

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Texas Rangers rank number one in the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days. Texas has gotten a big boost from Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus being red hot and guys like Rougned Odor providing power in key spots. 

The Angels have scored 5 runs or more in five of their last six games. The Angels are a completely different lineup with Mike Trout in there, and CJ Cron has been better of late. 

The two pitchers here have major weaknesses. Martin Perez allows a lot of baserunners and doesn't miss bats. Poor control and not being able to miss bats is an ugly combination.

Troy Scribner is an extreme flyball pitcher and the Rangers have plenty of home run hitters. Scribner had a 4.63 ERA in Triple A this year, and he is due for regression in the bigs right now. His FIP sits at 6.13 with an ERA nearly 3 runs lower. I think the Rangers get to him here.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies aren't the same away from Coors Field. Colorado ranks 28th in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. That's behind the weak hitting San Diego Padres. 

Colorado goes up against a quality lefty in Danny Duffy here. Duffy has given up quite a few runs in his last couple starts, but his strikeout rate has been really impressive. Duffy has 16 strikeouts in his last 11 innings pitched. He's missing bats and his FIP has been low the last couple games. He is due for some positive regression.

Jon Gray has a 4.74 ERA and a 3.63 FIP and 3.64 xFIP on the year. He has allowed a .357 BABIP which is unlikely to continue (though they are always higher at Coors Field). Gray has allowed 3 runs or less in his last five straight starts.

The wind is blowing in at almost 10 mph here, which is a significant help. Also, the temperature is moderate for this time of the year in the mid 70's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Marlins take on the New York Mets on Sunday afternoon at Citi Field. 

Miami isn't as deep offensively with Justin Bour out of the lineup. The Marlins are better against left handed pitching, and there they are against a very good right hander in Jacob Degrom. The bottom of the Marlins order is really weak and Degrom should be able to take advantage.

The Mets have traded half the team away and this offense can't keep producing as well as they have been for the course of the season. They've traded away too many key parts. Adam Conley is not a great pitcher, but he has an ERA under 1 in three career starts at Citi Field. 

Jacob Degrom has an ERA of 2.07 at home in his career. His ERA during day games is a superb 1.73 in his career. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Playing unders in warm weather months when the game is played at a dome that is closed has been a winning strategy the last five years. Closed roof unders with a total of 9 or more in July and August have cashed at 55.5%. It makes sense to me, the totals all get inflated a bit because there is typically more scoring in the summer months. In a game with a dome it obviously doesn't matter much at all what the weather is like outside.

That's certainly not the only reason I like this one. McHugh is a pitcher I'm pretty high on. Over the course of his career he has been pretty good at suppressing homers. Hitting homers is the way Oakland scores. The A's generally can't string together big innings.

Kendall Graveman has allowed the Houston hitters who will play in this one to hit only .216 with an OBP of .271 against him in a fairly large sample size of 88 at bats.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks have been amazing on offense at home, but they rank in the bottom five in the majors in wOBA on the road. The under is 33-22 in their road games. 

Charlie Morton is having a breakout season. His swinging strike rate sits at an impressive 10.5% and his FIP and xFIP are actually slightly below his ERA. He hasn't been lucky this year, he has just been good.

Taijuan Walker has been better on the road than at home this year. Walker is a guy with a high upside and the Astros haven't been quite as hot on offense of late.

David Peralta is expected to miss this game for Arizona. Carlos Correa and Evan Gattis are out for the Astros. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers offense has tailed off in production drastically in the last few weeks. There are a bunch of youngsters who were red hot earlier in the year, but many of them have cooled off a lot recently. 

The Pirates start Gerrit Cole here. Cole has allowed 3 runs or less in 10 of his last 11 starts. He has allowed 3 or less in his last seven starts in a row. Cole has great career numbers against Milwaukee. The Brewers have a .163 batting average against him in 80 at bats. 

Jimmy Nelson is coming off a terrible outing, but overall this year he has been excellent. Nelson will face a Pirates lineup that has disappointed this year. They are also without Polanco here who got injured. Look for Nelson to get back on track.

The under is 20-4 in the last 24 meetings between these two teams. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Subway Series continues here as Sonny Gray and Jacob Degrom face off. 

Sonny Gray has been racking up the swinging strikes at an amazing rate of late. Gray has been routinely registering better than 15% swinging strikes in recent outings, and that is about as high as you ever see. 

Jacob Degrom has been spectacular in the last couple months. He's getting more strikeouts per nine than he ever has before, and he's giving up less hard contact in the past month as well.

The weather is fairly moderate here which is helpful. Adam Hamari is a good under umpire with his big strike zone.

The Mets offense isn't what it used to be now that they made so many big trades. I think Degrom can at least slow down the Yankees.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jakob Junis is allowing nearly 2 homers per nine innings this year. Junis is allowing an extremely high rate of hard contact. More than 40% of batted balls hit off him this year have classified as hard hit balls. That is among the highest in the league. Junis has been good in the minors, but he has some refining of his game to do before I trust him in the majors.

Jharel Cotton has been a big disappointment this year. Cotton has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 9 starts. He has allowed 2 home runs or more in 5 of his last 8 starts. Cotton is a guy who is struggling with his command inside the zone right now. He's hanging way too many pitches.

The A's bullpen isn't any good now after trading away many key pieces. The Royals middle relief is a weak area, and Junis isn't known for pitching deep into a game.

The Royals are a really streaky offense, and they have been great the last couple games. I think they keep it going here. 

The A's have plenty of left handed power hitters who should give Junis trouble here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale in this one. Amazingly, Sale has thrown a shutout in 5 of his last 7 starts. The guy is rolling right now. The Yankees are great against right handed pitching, but against lefties they rank 21st in the majors in weighted on base average. 

Jordan Montgomery was amazing early in the year, and he went through a brief rough stretch. He has been really good again lately with his strikeout rates being through the roof. He's a very talented youngster who should slow the Red Sox down here. Boston is without Dustin Pedroia. 

These are two of the top five bullpens in baseball. That's a big key when you play a low under like this one. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been ice cold of late. For the past few weeks, they have gone into a slump. The last two days, they have been shutout on consecutive days. First, Carlos Carrasco shut them down on Friday night. Then, Mike Clevinger shut them out on Saturday. Now, they face arguably the hottest pitcher in baseball in Corey Kluber. 

Kluber has 10 strikeouts or more in 10 of his last 11 games. He has walked more than one batter in only two of those 11 starts. That's amazing stuff, and it is why he now owns an amazing 2.43 FIP for the season despite struggling early in the year.

Austin Pruitt is a good young starter who has a bit of a unique delivery. Seeing him the first time should be tough for most teams. He has had a couple real nice starts of late. 

Mark Ripperger is behind the dish and he's a very good under umpire.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Friday FAST CASH* The Philadelphia Phillies start Nick Pivetta here. Pivetta allowed just one hit and one run in his first start against the Mets this year. Pivetta has a 3.89 ERA at home on the season. He strikes out more than one batter per inning, and his minor league stats show upside. 

Pivetta's downside is he allows a lot of fly balls and can give up homers, but the Mets lineup is much weaker now without Duda or Bruce. The Mets offense has overachieved all year and that has led to some inflated totals in their games now. 

Seth Lugo is nothing better than average, but the Phillies are one of the worst offenses in baseball. 

Surprisingly enough, the Phillies bullpen has been really good in the past month. They rank 7th best in the majors in FIP in the past 30 days. They have some youngsters throwing it well. The Mets rank 14th best in FIP in the past month. 

With an umpire behind the plate who I consider an under umpire, I think this one is a full run too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Preseason Total DOMINATION* In the last 173 NFL Preseason games with a posted total of 36.5 or lower, the over is 104-69. 

There is no bad weather expected in this game. Both teams have solid depth at the quarterback position. 

Denver is looking to figure out who to start at the quarterback spot. They'll play both Siemian and Lynch a lot a solid amount here. 

The Bears have three pretty good options in Glennon, Trubisky, and Sanchez. 

I don't expect the Broncos veterans on defense to stay in this game long at all. What do they have to prove? Nothing.

The Bears defense is one of the weakest in the league this year, especially in terms of depth.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Two very good young pitchers square off on Thursday afternoon in Cincinnati. I think Dinelson Lamet and Luis Castillo both have a very bright future ahead of them.

Lamet is striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings, and he has thrown his best baseball in his last couple outings. 

Castillo has faced a bunch of very good lineups this year, but he goes up against one of the worst in baseball here. Castillo can throw it 99 mph with regularity and he has good movement on his fastball.

This is an early get away day game where the lineups are usually a little softer than the normal game.

We have a bit of an under umpire here, and I think the value is good enough to take the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Doug Eddings calls strikes at a highest rate of any umpire in the league. His strikeout/walk ratio is always among the highest in the majors as well. Anytime he is behind home plate, I at least take a look to the under. A day game that starts at 12:10 pm EST as the ultimate get away spot makes me like it even more. 

Get away day spots usually lead to a couple key players being out of the lineup. That's pretty likely in this one. 

Additionally, the temperature for this one is set to be 75 degrees with a slight breeze in from center field.

I'm not particularly high on Senzatela as a pitcher, but the Indians offense has been inconsistent this year. 

Trevor Bauer has thrown the ball really well two games in a row, and he definitely has a high upside if he can command his pitches well enough. Bauer has a career ERA a full run lower in day games than night games as well.

At 10 with all the factors mentioned above, I definitely like the value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The  Los Angeles Dodgers send Kenta Maeda to the mound here. Maeda started the season slowly, but he has been dealing of late. Maeda is a master of soft contact. He is giving up a very low 26.8% hard contact rate on the season. Maeda has allowed only 3 earned runs in his last 22 innings pitched. 

Zack Godley has been tremendous this year. His swinging strike rate of 14.0% is truly mind boggling. This guy is getting hitters to chase at bad pitches on a consistent basis. Godley has pitched back to back shutouts leading into this game. 

Both of these offenses are good, but these pitchers are in good form. Chase Field isn't a great hitters park when the roof is closed as it will be here. 

Both bullpens rank in the top ten in the majors as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels Angels start Ricky Nolasco here. While I'm not all that high on him overall, Nolasco has thrown the ball much better of late. He has allowed one run or less in 4 of his last 7 starts. He's up against an Oakland offense that is subpar here, and this is clearly a pitcher-friendly park.

Sean Manaea hasn't pitched well in his last few starts, but I'm very high on his upside. Manaea faces an Angels lineup that isn't very deep. I think he has a good chance to turn it around here, and his recent struggles have pushed this total upward.

Ron Kulpa is the umpire here, and the under is 225-162 (58.1%) in his career behind the plate. He's one of the best under umpires in the game.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star WNBA Play of the WEEK* The Washington Mystics will be without several key contributors here. Elena Delle Donne averages 19 points per game and she's the star of the team. She'll miss this game with a thumb injury. Tayler Hill is out for the season for them too, and she averaged 13.3 points per game. Natasha Cloud is doubtful here and she contributes 4.8 points per game on average.

Brittney Griner is out for the Mercury as well. Both teams are without their stars here, and that should make this lower scoring than a normal matchup between these two.

Add in the fact that we have a Sunday afternoon game that generally trends under, and I like this one. The under is 62-40 in the last 102 WNBA games on Sunday that start by at least 4 pm EST.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire for this one. Miller is my single favorite umpire to play an under with. Miller has a really high strikes called percentage every year. While other umpires vary from year to year, Miller is consistently a very pitcher-friendly umpire. Sunday is a get away day, and Sunday games have stayed under the total at a higher rate than any other day of the week. The under is 41-20 in Miller's last 61 Sunday games behind the dish.

Both of these starters have had issues with walks in their young careers, but Miller should help that quite a bit. He'll give them the corners far more than the average umpire. The Braves offense is inconsistent, and the Marlins are better against lefties than righties.

The wind is blowing in here and I see this total as inflated a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gerrit Cole has been tremendous of late. Cole has allowed two runs or less in 8 of his last 9 games. That includes a very good start against San Diego in his last outing. 

The Padres are a team that strikes out a lot, and Cole's strikeout numbers have improved quite a bit in recent weeks. I see him having another strong start here.

Dinelson Lamet has a really high upside. Lamet has been inconsistent this year, but at times he can flat out dominate. The Pirates lineup has been disappointing this year, and they do strike out at a pretty high rate. Lamet is averaging a whopping 11.71 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

With temperatures falling into the 60's during the game, the ball shouldn't call as well as normal for an August game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Rich Hill has been great of late. Hill has allowed a grand total of five runs in his last five outings. Hill has 5 walks and 40 strikeouts in those games. After struggling earlier in the year, he is back to dealing.

The Mets offense didn't put up anything last night, and I don't think they'll score much here. This is an offense that is due to regress to the mean after a lot of good fortunes so far this season.

Seth Lugo is a decent pitcher, and this is still a pretty good pitcher's park. He certainly has to go against a very good lineup here, but I think he'll hold his own at least.

The two bullpens both rank in the top ten in the past month, and the Dodgers are arguably the best bullpen in baseball.

This total is too high. The under is 5-1 in Hill's last 6 starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jharel Cotton is really struggling with his command both in and out of the zone in the last couple months. He's walked four guys or more on three occasions in his last seven starts. Cotton has also allowed multiple home runs in 4 of his last 6 starts. 

Mike Trout is on fire right now, and he and the Angels offense should get some chances against Cotton and a terrible Oakland bullpen. After the deadline, this A's pen is significantly worse than it was before.

Troy Scribner starts here for the Angels. Scribner had a 4.16 ERA and a 4.73 FIP in Triple A this year, which makes me highly doubt his staying ability in the majors. He has a history of problems with walks. This Oakland offense has some solid power against right handed pitching. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Yu Darvish was rocked in his last outing, but he has elite stuff. I think he starts out with a good outing against a Mets offense that is due for regression to the mean. The Mets have overachieved offensively and their totals have become a bit inflated based on their ridiculous over run for the season.

Not many pitchers have been as locked in as Jacob Degrom of late. Degrom has allowed more than 2 runs in only one of his last nine starts. He has double digit strikeouts in three of his last six starts. He'll face a tough lineup here, but Degrom has allowed only 11 hits in 63 at bats against this Dodgers lineup so far in his career.

Look for a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals offense has been very good consistently this year. They are up against a journeyman in Vance Worley. Worley had poor numbers in Triple A this year. He couldn't strike hardly anyone out. Why should I expect him to be better in the majors? I don't. 

A.J. Cole has lost velocity on his fastball from a couple years ago. He has some major control issues, and he'll put a lot of guys on base. This Marlins lineup has been very good in recent weeks, and Ozuna is red hot in the middle of the lineup.

Both bullpens are exhausted after they were used up yesterday. I don't think the starters give them quality starts here. This one gets high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is my favorite under umpire in the majors. Miller's strike percentage has been over 65% in four consecutive seasons, which no other umpire has matched. This is a guy that helps the pitchers a bunch.

Robert Stephenson has a high upside, but throwing strikes is a major issue for him. Having a guy like Miller behind the dish should be a huge help for him. The Pirates aren't a patient team either.

Trevor Williams started the season pitching poorly, but his fastball has good movement and he has been pretty solid of late.

Billy Hamilton is questionable with an injury and Zack Cozart is out with an injury. Those are two key pieces in this Reds lineup.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale here. Sale has 10 strikeouts or more in six of his last eight games. He has nine strikeouts in the other two games in that span. Sale has pitched a shutout in three straight games. He has allowed 1 run or less in six of the team's last eight games. 

Carlos Carrasco is far less consistent than Sale, and there is some chance he gets hit a decent amount. Still, the Red Sox have an inconsistent lineup and Pedroia is banged up (questionable). 

A slight wind blowing in and an under umpire are two nice bonuses for this play. 

The under is 21-8 in Carrasco's last 29 road starts. The under is 5-1 in Sale's last 6.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense hasn't been good. Pittsburgh has scored three runs or less in 6 of their last 7 games. The Pirates have scored more than 4 runs only twice in their last 14 games.

Clayton Richard isn't very good, and Pittsburgh should get some shots against him, but this is a very pitcher-friendly park and with the Padres recent over run, this game is inflated by half a run. The Padres bullpen has been solid this year.

Gerrit Cole has been shutting people down of late. Cole has allowed 2 runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. Cole has 5 walks and 26 strikeouts in his last four outings. This Padres lineup is still one of the worst in baseball. The Pirates bullpen has been excellent in the past month.

Sunday is the best under day in baseball by a large margin in the past 10 years. With Cole dealing and the Pirates offense struggling, I'll grab the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Dinelson Lamet is a guy I think has a high upside. Lamet gives up a bunch of fly balls, which is a great thing when he is pitching at Petco Park. Lamet has had some great starts at home this year, while he has struggled consistently on the road. 

Ivan Nova is a pitch to contact pitcher, and that is fine at a park like this. Nova doesn't walk anyone, and that helps him get by with giving up more hits than an average pitcher. 

Both bullpens have been much better in the past month. 

These two offenses both rank in the bottom five in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals Takedown* The weather plays a big role in this selection. Winds blowing in from center field of 15 mph during this game will definitely help the pitchers. 

I also think Sean Newcomb and Jerod Eickhoff are young guys who are a bit undervalued by the markets right now. Both of these guys have some good movement on their offspeed pitches.

The Phillies have been hapless this year against lefties (.292 OBP). The Braves offense has been inconsistent this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jacob Degrom has been locked in of late. Degrom has allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He isn't giving anyone free passes, and Degrom has always had great strikeout stuff. 

The Mets offense is one that I believe has overachieved pretty drastically this year. The over is a whopping 59-30-11 in the Mets games, and at this point I see their totals getting inflated. Gallardo is obviously nothing special now, but I think he can at least limit the Mets.

This is still a pitcher-friendly park and with a very good pitcher in Degrom throwing on one side, a number of 9 here is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* It is scorching hot in Texas right now. The temperature at game time is expected to be 100 degrees. The ball flies extremely well in this park when it is this hot. That's a big factor in this play.

Of course it doesn't hurt to have two bad starting pitchers on the mound either. Chris Tillman has been abysmal all year. Tillman's velocity is down and his walks are way up. Tillman is allowing 1.94 homers per nine innings and this isn't a good park to go to for a guy who can't keep the ball in the ballpark. The Rangers hitters have a tremendous .429 on base percentage against Tillman in 128 plate appearances.

Andrew Cashner has been due for regression for a long time. It hasn't come as much as I expected, but I still think it is coming. Cashner is walking 4 guys per nine innings and striking out 4.5 guys per nine innings. That's about as bad as you'll ever see from a big league starter. His SIERA is over 5.5 and he is tightroping his way out of some big innings. 

The Orioles bullpen isn't what it used to be, and the Rangers bullpen is among the worst in baseball. Look for a high scoring contest here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Oakland A's offense has been dreadful of late. Oakland has scored only 8 runs in their last four games combined. The A's now face the Blue Jays best pitcher in Marcus Stroman. 

Stroman has a career 4.09 ERA in the first half of the season. His career ERA in the second half is a full run better at 3.09. Stroman has his best numbers (3.16 ERA) when the roof is closed and with a chance of rain it is likely the roof will be closed for this one. 

Oakland's Sean Manaea is a tremendous young pitcher. He has some maturing to do, but I think he has a really high upside. Manaea has a 3.82 ERA and a 3.55 FIP on the season. 

The Blue Jays offense isn't elite, and I think this total is pricing them like they are. 

This is a get away day game and some of the key starters will likely be out of the lineup for this one.

The under is 4-0 in the A's last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in the Blue Jays last 7 home games vs. a road team with a win percentage of 40% or lower on the road. The under is 3-0-1 in Stroman's last 4 home starts. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Toronto. A 22-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies meet on Wednesday night in a battle of two pitchers who have been throwing the ball extremely well of late. 

Mike Fiers has a superb 2.36 ERA over his last 10 starts. He altered his pitch usage and changed up his arm angle a bit at the beginning of that time. It has worked really well. In the last 2 starts, Fiers has 1 walk and 20 strikeouts. This Phillies lineup is about as bad as it gets, and Fiers is dealing.

Aaron Nola has been excellent of late as well. After a slow start to the year, Nola has allowed 2 runs or less in six straight starts. He has gone 7 innings or more in five of those six starts as well which helps avoid this Phillies bullpen.

Gorman is an umpire who helps the under some and the temperature will be moderate here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Rick Porcello has been a much better pitcher in the second half of the season in his career. Porcello has a 4.59 ERA in the first half vs. a 3.76 ERA in the second half of the season. 

Porcello is showing some strong signs of turning the corner. He has 0 walks and 13 strikeouts in his last two starts. With his improved control of late, Porcello has been able to improve his strand rate. This Angels lineup isn't very good. There isn't enough depth here. 

Parker Bridwell has been decent so far this year, and the Red Sox lineup is extremely inconsistent. 

One thing to keep in mind here is we have two teams who have top five bullpens and a high posted total. Vic Carrapazza is the umpire and he's one of the best under umpires in the business. 

The under is 10-0-1 in the Angels last 11 vs. a right hander. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series. The under is 5-0 in Porcello's last 5 following a quality start in his last outing. The under is 7-0-1 in Carrapazza's last 8 Sunday games behind home plate. A 33-0 angle. 

Take the under.