*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights aren't a very good team, but they play very hard. Their defense has struggled on the road, but at home they have been very good. According to TeamRankings, Rutgers is allowing only 0.883 points per possession at home this year. On the road, they are allowing 1.093 points per possession.

Rutgers has seen 6 of their last 8 home games finish with a total of 125 points or lower. They are going to do their best to make this game a hard fought low scoring contest, because that is their best chance here.

Nebraska is 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Cornhuskers have played nearly one second per possession on offense slower than they did a year ago. In their last three games (Penn State, Indiana, and Michigan State), the final totals have all been 134 or lower. 

The last three times Nebraska and Rutgers have gotten together, the final totals have been 129, 114, and 122 points. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames have been excellent at controlling the pace this year. They forced Jacksonville into a game with only 61 possessions, and Jacksonville averages 73 possessions per game. Jacksonville's second slowest game this year was 66 possessions. Liberty has played four of their last five games to 62 possessions or fewer.

North Alabama ranks 334th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 341st in effective field goal percentage offense. They have had trouble with turnovers this year, and Liberty excels at forcing turnovers.

According to Synergy Sports, North Alabama ranks in the 4th percentile in offense in half court sets. They are better in transition, but Liberty ranks in the 100th percentile in transition defense. 

North Alabama has been decent on defense this year, and their best area has been guarding the 3 point shot. That's what Liberty does a lot is take outside shots.

Liberty should win comfortably here, and they have shown that they grind the game down to a halt with a big lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots hosted the Kansas City Chiefs in week 6 of the regular season. The Patriots won that game 43-40. The scoring was rapid fire back and forth late in that game. Both teams were getting a bunch of big gainers. 

Kansas City has the best offense in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes has proven people wrong all year, and he has a good coaching staff putting him in great positions. It doesn't hurt to have guys like Hill, Kelce, and Watkins to throw the ball to either. The Chiefs offensive line is one of the two or three best in the NFL as well. Kansas City has been able to score on everyone this year. I don't think that changes here. The Patriots defense can't match the team speed of the Chiefs.

New England's offense has found a really solid running game late this year. Kansas City ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Chiefs have gotten gashed on several occasions. While the Patriots offense isn't elite, they do still have one of the best of all time at quarterback. They also have a great offensive coaching staff. This is a weak Kansas City defense they are up against. 

Both of these teams rank in the top eight in pace of play, so there should be plenty of snaps here. 

The over is 8-1-1 in the Patriots last 10 playoff games. New England has scored 28 points or more in all but one of those games. 

The weather doesn't look nearly as bad as it did earlier this year. Current forecasts call for temperatures in the mid 20's here, which is cold, but not brutal by any means. The winds are expected to be at only 5 or 6 mph. 

Cold weather games have gone over in the NFL in the past. Games with a temperature of less than 30 degrees have gone 95-61 (60.9%) to the over. In the playoffs, the over is 20-11 in this weather. When the game is a non-divisional contest, the over is a whopping 67-30 (69.1%).

Look for both teams to score quite a few here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks are setting up in a zone defense nearly every time now. Dana Altman's team wasn't playing good defense in the man to man defense, and to Altman's credit he decided to change things up and go zone. It has worked. Oregon is 27th in effective field goal percentage defense. They were 147th last year. Kenny Wooten just returned to the team last game, and he is one of the best shot blockers in the country. The defense should improve even more with him.

Oregon is slowing the pace down much more than they did a year ago. On offense, they are using 19.2 seconds on average before putting up a shot. The Ducks were 76th in effective field goal percentage on offense last year. They are 149th this year.

Arizona State will try to push the pace here. The Sun Devils were 18th in offensive efficiency last year and 123rd in defensive efficiency. They are 83rd in offensive efficiency and 65th in defensive efficiency this year. 

Last year, the two contests between these two edged past this total, but these are totally different teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas Tech and Baylor meet in Waco on Saturday evening. Baylor ranks 311th in tempo in the country. The Bears have consistently played at a very slow pace over the last few seasons. Texas Tech ranks 219th in tempo.

Texas Tech has the #1 defensive in terms of defensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy. The Red Raiders are first in two point percentage defense and 2nd in 3 point percentage defense. They are sixth in blocked shot percentage. This is a dominant defense.

Baylor ranks 43rd in defensive efficiency, and they are fifth in the country in blocked shot percentage.

According to Synergy Sports, Baylor is most efficient in transition on offense (they don't do it much), but Texas Tech ranks in the top one percent of transition defenses. They shouldn't give up easy ones. 

Baylor's defense in the half court has been great, but their transition defense is weak. Texas Tech is weakest in transition on offense though, and they typically slow things down. 

I like the matchups here and think we should see a hard fought low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane and UCF Knights are both playing significantly faster this season. 

Tulsa's average possession length last year was 17.9 seconds. This year it is 16.6 seconds. UCF's average possession length in AAC play last year was 19.5 seconds. It is 16.8 seconds so far this year. 

UCF ranked 281st in offensive efficiency last year. They rank 49th in that number this year. The Knights ranked 8th in defensive efficiency last year. They are 50th this year. 

UCF ranks first in the nation in free throws attempted/field goal attempts. Tulsa ranks 6th in this statistic. Both of these teams have been making a living at the line. The AAC referees have had a very quick whistle so far this season. 

I see these teams as different than last year, and I think there is value on the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Oregon is still a team that wants to slow things down. The Ducks have played arguably the two fastest teams in the Pac 12 in UCLA and USC in their last two games, and their higher scoring games in those contests have given the under more value here.

Arizona ranks 205th in the nation in tempo. Despite playing the 34th toughest slate of offenses according to KenPom, the Wildcats rank 22nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Oregon will move slowly and they aren't likely to get many second chances on offense.

The Arizona offense ranks in the 75th percentile in offensive efficiency against man defenses according to Synergy Sports. They rank in only the 42nd percentile against zone defenses. They'll see a lot of zone from Oregon here. 

Both teams rank in the top 12% of teams in the country in transition defense, so there aren't likely to be many easy scoring chances in transition.

Look for a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I very rarely play overs this high, but I feel it is warranted here. Eastern Kentucky ranks second in the nation in tempo. The Colonels are averaging slightly more than 80 possessions per game. They face a UT Martin team here who ranks 55th in the nation in tempo. Their new coach wants them pushing the pace as well, so I wouldn't expect them to stall things out here.

The floor is very high for scoring in Eastern Kentucky games. The lowest total in any of their last seven games was 163 points. They had a 182 point game and a 202 point game in that time span. 

What about UT Martin. They haven't played anyone who goes even close to as fast as Eastern Kentucky, but they have managed to give up 92 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. UT Martin ranks 336th in defensive efficiency despite playing 227th toughest slate of offenses thus far. Eastern Kentucky has faced the 70th toughest list of defenses, so I believe their offense is a bit undervalued.

A strength for the UT Martin offense is offensive rebounds and that is a weakness for Eastern Kentucky. 

The spread here sits at six, which is a fouling margin and that could certainly push this over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Southern Eagles are a totally different team than they were last year or the year before. Georgia Southern ranked 155th in tempo two years ago. They ranked 134th in tempo last year. They rank sixth in the nation in tempo this year. They are shooting the ball almost 3 seconds quicker on an average possession now than they did last year in Sun Belt action. 

Troy has gotten worse on defense. The Trojans rank 296th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Trojans are slightly better on offense this year. 

The strength of both of these offenses is being efficient in transition, and that should lead to a bunch of points here. 

These two teams have a history of high scoring games against each other- and that was before Georgia Southern's move to a much faster tempo. In the last five meetings between these two, there hasn't been a single matchup that finished short of 159 points. With the faster pace, I like the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kennesaw State has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Owls rank dead last in Ken Pomeroy's effective field goal percentage. That's out of 353 teams. This offense is shooting a miserable 37.7% on two point field goals. Kennesaw State has been held to 53 points or less seven times this year.

Liberty plays at the single slowest pace of any team Kennesaw State has played so far this year. The Flames are good on offense, and they are likely to be pretty efficient here. Liberty is projected to coast to a win though, and they have shown they will grind the pace down to a halt with a big lead. Liberty is using nearly 22 seconds of the shot clock on average in their Atlantic Sun games (they have won each by at least 16 points). 

Kennesaw State typically plays pretty slowly as well, so I expect a very slow tempo here and I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Loyola Chicago's defense has been great throughout the course of the season, and they are even better defensively on their home floor. The Ramblers control tempo with the best of them, and Valparaiso isn't wanting to speed things up either. Valpo ranks 293rd in tempo out of 353 in country. Loyola ranks 320th. 

Loyola is second in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are 7th in the nation in defending without fouling. There aren't many easy points against this Ramblers defense. They have given up 49 points or less in four of their last seven contests overall.

Valpo is great at defending without fouling as well. The Crusaders have seen 4 of their last 5 games against Division I teams finish with 126 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The last time these two teams met Virginia Tech won at Virginia by a count of 61-60 in overtime. That game was played to a pace of 61 possessions even with an overtime, so the tempo was extremely slow. 

Virginia Tech is playing much differently this year. The Hokies used up 16.1 seconds of the shot clock on average last year. They are using up 18.1 seconds of the shot clock on average this year. The Hokies have slowed down dramatically. They are using 19.0 seconds of the clock in ACC play.

Virginia ranks 353rd out of 353 in the country in tempo. The Cavs are using 21.0 seconds of the shot clock on average in ACC play. They are second in the nation in defensive efficiency. Virginia has held 10 of their 15 opponents this year to 52 points or fewer. 

Virginia Tech has improved in a big way on defense. The Hokies ranked 156th in defensive efficiency two years ago. They ranked 70th last year. They rank 19th so far this year. 

Here's an under system for Virginia- When the total is 117 points or higher and they are either underdogs or favored by 11 points or less... the under is a whopping 40-12 (77%) since 2010. The system is 11-1 in the last 12 as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles rank 350th out of 353 teams in the nation in tempo. Eastern Michigan uses the Syracuse matchup zone to slow down the game. The Eagles have given a lot of teams in the MAC trouble with this zone defense. Last year, Akron scored only 49 and 58 points in their two games against Eastern Michigan. 

The Akron Zips defense was questionable last year, but they are very good on defense this season. Akron was 300th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 50th this year.

Both games between these two last year stayed easily under this total, and Akron is playing much higher quality defense now.

Akron ranks 309th in tempo as well, so they aren't likely to be pushing the pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines host the Northwestern Wildcats today. These two already played in Evanston this year with the Wolverines escaping with a 62-60 win.

Northwestern ranks 291st in the nation in tempo. Michigan ranks 323rd in the nation in tempo. The pace of this game will be slow. In fact, the last three times these teams have played none of the games have paced to any higher than 61 possessions (very slow). The final totals of these 3 games have been 105 points, 113 points, and 122 points.

There has been a move up on this total, and with the move up I have too much value to pass up the under. Northwestern is worse on offense this year than they were a year ago. The Wildcats are averaging only 0.928 points per possession inside the Big Ten. Michigan is slightly less efficient on offense than they were a year ago, and they are slightly better on defense than a year ago.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints passing attack is capable of huge things. They weren't at their best down the stretch, but their numbers are much better in the Superdome than on the road and they are up against a very weakened Eagles secondary here. 

Drew Brees is still a very reliable quarterback, and he still has a great offensive line in front of him. The Saints have multiple good weapons on the outside, and they also have a great running back in Kamara. 

The Eagles secondary has been a problem late in the year with the significant amount of injuries. Philadelphia's secondary was exposed by Houston late in the year. The Bears weren't able to expose them, but the Saints are on the fast track and have many more weapons.

The Eagles offense has been playing better with Foles at quarterback, and the Saints defense gives up a lot of big plays. Philadelphia is a better offense with Sproles healthy. He isn't young, but he still has big play potential.

Both passing attacks have a significant advantage here, and this isn't that high of a total considering the situations. 

The over is 6-0 in the Saints last 6 home playoff contests.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* A major clash of styles here. FIU ranks first in the nation in tempo. Old Dominion ranks among the 20 slowest in the nation. Why do I like the under here?

Neither team is efficient at all on offense. Old Dominion ranks 240th in effective field goal percentage on the year, and FIU ranks 241st. 

FIU gets out in transition all the time, but according to Synergy Sports, Old Dominion ranks among the top 5% of teams in the country at defending in transition. FIU isn't likely to get some of the easy looks that they normally do in transition.

Old Dominion is coming off their worst defensive game of the year on Thursday, and I fully expect them to be much better prepared on defense here. Old Dominion has consistently been able to slow games down against Marshall and make them low scoring, so they have proven capable of forcing a very fast opponent to play their game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both Monmouth and Manhattan are down this year compared to what they have been in recent seasons.

Monmouth has always liked to push the tempo in recent seasons, but they were playing very slowly in the non-conference slate. They aren't a very deep team, and they were outclassed by many of their much stronger foes. I was watching closely for signs of tempo changes in their first couple games in the MAAC. Monmouth decided to start playing faster again in those games. 

Manhattan is averaging 0.89 points per possession on the year, but in MAAC play they are at 1.09 points per possession. The Jaspers youngsters have started shooting the ball better of late. 

Both of these teams foul like crazy. Manhattan ranks 347th in fouling rate (out of 353) and Monmouth isn't much better at 341st. Expect a ton of free throws in this one.

With a total set this low, I like the value on the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are a really inefficient offense. Ohio ranks 292nd in offensive efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy. Ohio is turning the ball over on a whopping 22.4% of their offensive possessions. Ohio is shooting only 29.8% from 3 point range on the year.

Ohio is playing much slower this year than they have in the past. In their first two MAC games they are using 19.8 seconds of the shot clock on average, which is more than 3 seconds per trip more than they did last year. That's a pretty dramatic shift. 

Ball State likes to get out in transition, but the strength of the Ohio defense this year has been transition defense. The Bobcats are also good at limiting the opposition to one shot.

Last year when both teams were playing at a fast tempo, these teams got to 143 points. While Ball State has played quickly on the whole this year, their last two games they have played noticeably slower inside the conference.

This total has been pushed up too far for me to pass on it.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Wizards are a better defensive team without John Wall in the lineup. Washington ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the season overall. Washington ranks 14th in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. 

Milwaukee ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Bucks are allowing only 1.027 points per possession in their last 10. Milwaukee has played slower on the road this year than at home. The Bucks have slowed down their tempo a bit in general in recent weeks, and the Wizards are a bit slower without Wall pushing it as well.

The under is 7-1 in the Bucks last 8 road games. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 games between these two teams. The under is 4-0 in the Wizards last 4 vs. the NBA Central. A 17-1 trend.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of the Week* The UCLA Bruins are playing significantly faster under Murray Bartow than they were under Steve Alford. He has the team pushing at all opportunities, and they are using the full court press far more often. UCLA's biggest strength is their athleticism and speed all over the floor, so this makes sense to me.

UCLA played their last game against Cal to a ridiculously fast pace of 88 possessions. That's about as fast as you'll see any college basketball game. The Bruins won't be able to force Oregon to go that fast, but this one should be a quick paced game.

Oregon likes to play the zone, but according to Synergy Sports UCLA is much better against the zone than man defense. 

UCLA has played 15 games this year. Only 2 of those games have stayed under this total. They are playing faster now than they were earlier this year.

Oregon has attempted to play slower of late, but Oregon State pushed them to a 74 possession game and UCLA will be pushing hard all the way here. Oregon still has some solid scorers, and this UCLA defense is only average.

Unless the shooting numbers are abnormally low, I think this one gets comfortably over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles rank 304th in average time of possession used on offense (time before they take a shot) in the country. That makes them among the 50 slowest teams in the nation.

Southern Miss ranks 264th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. The Golden Eagles almost never get to the line or get offensive rebounds, and that hurts their scoring ability a lot. 

MTSU plays at an average tempo, but the Blue Raiders are awful on offense. MTSU ranks 343rd out of 353 in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. MTSU ranks 351st in the nation in turnover percentage. Southern Miss turns people over at a high rate.

I expect a slow tempo and a lot of wasted possessions in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights aren't quite as bad on offense this year as they were a year ago, but they aren't good. They rank 294th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Rutgers averages less than one point per possession on the year, and they are at only 0.975 points per possession in the Big Ten thus far.

Ohio State is a solid offense at 33rd in offensive efficiency. The Buckeyes are even better on defense though. They rank 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Buckeyes prefer to slow the game down, and Rutgers is most comfortable at this pace as well.

In their two games against each other last year the final totals were 131 and 114 points. 

Rutgers has seen 5 of their last 10 games stay at 125 points or lower in regulation. Ohio State gave up 86 points against Michigan State last game, and I think that has a lot to do with why the line moved up here, but Rutgers isn't Michigan State.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Towson Tigers play at an extremely slow tempo. Towson ranks 345th out of 353 teams in the country in overall tempo. Towson also ranks 296th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Tigers have scored 61 points or less in three of their last four games. 

Cornell has slowed their pace down significantly this year. The Big Red are 225th in overall tempo this year. They were 117th last season. Cornell is 217th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. 

We have two teams who prefer to slow the game down and are inefficient on offense. Cornell has seen only 3 of their last 8 games go over this total. Towson has seen 6 of their last 7 games go under the total.

There has been a line move up of 3 points, and that's enough for me to take the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We have two elite defenses in this one. Texas Tech ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma ranks sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. Texas Tech ranks 96th in offensive efficiency and Oklahoma ranks 71st in offensive efficiency.

Oklahoma is playing much slower than they did a year ago. They are using about two seconds more of the shot clock on an average possession than they did a year ago. The Sooners have had 133 and 138 games against Kansas and Oklahoma State. Texas Tech is much better on defense than those two and they play slower as well.

The Red Raiders have had 7 straight games stay under this total, and most haven't even been close to this number. 

Look for a very hard fought game where open shots are tough to come by. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bowling Green Falcons offense has been very efficient of late, but a closer look at who they have played against and it shouldn't be any surprise. They have been facing off against some terrible defenses. Bowling Green has played ten straight games games against a team with an adjusted defensive efficiency (points per possession) of 232nd or worse (out of 353 teams in the country) according to KenPom. 

That run stops here though since Ohio ranks 78th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bobcats are excellent at holding teams to one shot, and they have a good shot blocker in Doug Taylor. 

Ohio has pushed the tempo in past seasons, but they have slowed down in recent weeks. Never was that more evident than when they used 20.1 seconds on average of the 30 second shot clock in their last game against NIU. 

Bowling Green has been better on defense than offense in the last couple years, and I think their shooting numbers will cool off over time. The Falcons guard inside the arc very well, and Ohio struggles from 3 point range. 

Both teams are great on the defensive glass.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs just lost their best offensive player to a season-ending injury. Nick Norton had transferred over from UAB and done a brilliant job for this team. Norton had an assist rate ranking in the top 25 in the country according to KenPom. Norton was also shooting 38% from long range and 92% from the free throw line. Drake's offense was without him part of the game against Evansville, and they were extremely inefficient in that one. 

Loyola Chicago has the best defense in the conference, and it isn't even close. The Ramblers rank 13th best in the nation in points per possession allowed according to KenPom. Loyola is much less efficient on offense this year, since they lost three key scorers from last year's team.

Loyola is great at controlling the tempo. The Ramblers defense has been out of this world good in their last few games. Loyola has allowed 55 points or less in their last five straight games. That includes games against Maryland and St. Joe's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Towson Tigers experimented with playing quicker in the last two seasons, but they are back to playing very slowly this year. Towson ranks 344th out of 353 teams in the country in overall tempo. Towson was 188th last year. 

Towson was 144th in effective field goal percentage last year. They are 268th this season. Their defense ranks about the same as a year ago. Towson is clearly more of an under team than they were last year.

College of Charleston prefers a slow tempo as well. Charleston is arguably the best team in the conference, and they are very solid defensively. Charleston excels at defending without fouling, and Towson relies on getting to the line on offense.

I expect a slow tempo here, and I think this number should be in the 128-129 range.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I waited for this one to get bet up, and at this number I have to take the under. Kansas State is playing without Dean Wade and that weakens their offense significantly. Texas has been very inefficient on offense all year.

These are two of the top ten teams in the country in defensive efficiency according to Ken Pom. Both teams prefer a slow pace and neither team commits many fouls. Last year, these teams played a 58-48 contest.

Look for strong defense and two offenses who can't get many good looks. Texas is 223rd in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. Kansas State is 242nd. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats had a terrific season. Kentucky is led by their great defense. Kentucky's defense ranks 16th in the nation adjusted for strength of schedule. The Wildcats have a future NFL linebacker in Josh Allen. He is likely the best player on the field here, and I expect him to give Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley a hard time. Kentucky's pass rush is excellent and Penn State has struggled in protection at times this year.

The Kentucky offense is all about the run. Snell is a good running back, but it is hard to move the ball against a quality defense when you don't any other threats. Kentucky's passing game is very weak. Penn State will be looking to try to make Kentucky beat them through the air. The Wildcats run the ball on about 64% of their plays from scrimmage, and they play at a very slow pace.

Six of Kentucky's last nine games finished with a combined point total of 35 points or less. Penn State has seen four of their last seven games finish at 41 points combined or less. 

Both teams are great at preventing big plays. I expect a hard fought game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats and Utah Utes are somewhat similar in that the strength of their defense is the defensive line. Pat Fitzgerald and Kyle Whittingham are defensive-minded coaches. Both offensive lines have allowed a lot of tackles for a loss (NW 52nd best and Utah 80th). Utah is 7th in tackles for a loss on defense and NW is 70th. 

Both of these teams have done a good job preventing explosive plays. Both teams have allowed only 20 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Utah is 73rd in the country in plays of 30 yards or more and Northwestern is 117th. Northwestern is 43rd in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed and Utah is 25th. The two offenses are 62nd and 79th on 3rd down. 

Northwestern is 124th out of 130 in yards per play. This Wildcats offense just isn't any good. Clayton Thorson doesn't have enough weapons around him, and the offensive line is weak. This Utah defensive line is going to give them problems.

Utah will be without their two best playmakers in Britain Covey (WR) and Zack Moss (RB) here. Tyler Huntley is expected to play some at QB after being injured the last few games, but he may not start. 

I see both teams having to work hard to get anything on offense, and these defenses have been great at forcing field goals instead of allowing touchdowns in the red zone.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans are very good at turning games into sloppy low scoring games. How good? Their last seven games of the season all finished with a combined score of 38 points or lower. Four of their last six games finished with 28 points or less. 

The Spartans have an excellent defense and a terrible offense. Michigan State ranks 125th in the nation in yards per play. The Spartans is 13th in yards per play allowed. 

Oregon had a lot of high scoring games this year, but this is the best defense they have faced. They also aren't accustomed to teams who play at a very slow tempo as Michigan State does. 

The weather should help here. Santa Clara's Levi's Stadium is known as a nice under field because of the grass and conditions. The wind is expected to be blowing at around 20 mph during the middle of this game. That's a clear plus for the under with it making it harder to get big plays in the passing game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions in the final game of the regular season for each team. There are strong under trends in the long term in the final week of the season with bad teams. It is much stronger if the game isn't being played in a dome.

From game number 13-16: when both teams have won 50% or less of their games and the game is not being played in a dome- the under is 131-84-6 (60.9%). The number goes to 92-55 to the under when the total is at least 39.5. 

The wind could be a bit of a factor here too. Steady winds of 13-14 mph with gusts to 22 mph are forecast for Green Bay on Sunday afternoon.

Detroit's offense has scored 17 points or less in four straight games. Stafford is playing banged up and they are without their star running back Kerryon Johnson. 

Both pass rushes are much better than the offensive line, and that should make both quarterbacks uncomfortable.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo's offense has been woeful at best this year. Buffalo has scored 13 points or less nine times this year. Buffalo has a very conservative offense, and I wouldn't expect that to change much here. 

Miami's offense has been really bad of late. Ryan Tannehill is banged up and the offensive line in front of him is shorthanded as well. They are without multiple top options on offense. The Dolphins scored just 7 points last week against Jacksonville. This Buffalo defense has been tremendous all year. The Dolphins didn't even get to 200 yards in their first game against Buffalo. Buffalo ranks third in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

Both of these teams play slowly and the weather here calls for 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. That should keep things more conservative on the play calling front. 

From game number 13-16: when both teams have won 50% or less of their games and the game is not being played in a dome- the under is 131-84-6 (60.9%). The number goes to 92-55 to the under when the total is at least 39.5. 

This is a late season game that should be filled with some sloppy offense and a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I took the under the last time these two met and it cashed in a 66-54 win by Oregon at home. This is a rare non-conference rematch only two weeks later. Bol Bol will miss this game on Saturday once again for Oregon, and this team is clearly not the same without him.

Oregon has averaged only 61.33 points in their three games without Bol Bol. That is despite one of those games being against lowly Florida A&M. The Ducks have slowed their tempo down drastically of late. Oregon has played to a pace of 63 possessions or less in four of their last five games.

Oregon's defense has been tremendous this year. The Ducks have allowed 65 points or less in six straight games. They mix up their defenses well.

Boise State ranks in the bottom 100 in the country in tempo. The Broncos also do a great job limiting second chance opportunities. 

Neither team has any great scoring options with Bol out of the lineup for Oregon.

Another slow paced game and barring some high shooting numbers, I think it stays under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are two excellent defenses. Clemson is first in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame ranks eighth in the country in yards per play allowed. 

Clemson's defensive line is without one starter here in Dexter Lawrence, but I still expect them to be too much for this Notre Dame offensive front. Notre Dame has been acceptable in pass blocking this year, but they have a very hard task ahead of them to keep the pocket clean here. Clemson's Brent Venables is the best defensive coordinator in the country in my opinion, and I expect this Tigers defense to have a lot of different looks ready. The secondary was good most of the year, though they did have a couple slip ups. I expect them to get a lot of help from the pass rush. It's also important to keep in mind that Ian Book doesn't have much experience, and he hasn't played many good defenses yet. That changes here.

Trevor Lawrence is a really talented quarterback, but he's a freshman and he hasn't faced defensive challenges very often yet. Clemson's run game isn't likely to be able to dominate against this Notre Dame defensive front. Clemson hasn't had a great downfield passing game this year. 

Both of these defenses have been excellent at preventing big plays. That can make scoring take a lot longer, and it increases the likelihood of field goals instead of touchdowns. 

Two great defensive coordinators here and two very young quarterbacks. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes and Wisconsin Badgers meet in a rematch of last year's bowl game. Wisconsin won that game 34-24 because of a rare great passing game for the offense. Wisconsin will be without Alex Hornibrook for this game due to a concussion. That makes Coan the starting quarterback. He has thrown a lot of very safe short passes in his time under center. There isn't a big threat of the deep ball. 

Wisconsin is good at running the ball, but Miami is 11th in the country in yards per carry allowed. The Hurricanes are very strong in the front seven. Taylor will get his yards here, but I don't think they will come as easy as they do in most games. Especially with Miami knowing there isn't much of a passing threat.

Miami's quarterback situation isn't good at all. The Hurricanes have the 112th ranked passing attack in the country. Wisconsin's defense will likely dare Miami to beat them with the passing game.

Both defenses have been good at not giving up big plays. They both rank in the top 30 in the country at preventing explosive plays. Both offensive are in the bottom half of the country at getting explosive plays.

This game is played at Yankee Stadium in late December. The weather could help the under here as well with cold weather and possible winds.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Christmas Day has been great to under bettors in the NBA since this tradition started. The strongest under angles come in the early games and in games that aren't between divisional opponents. This one meets both of those filters.

Milwaukee has been playing much better defense of late. The Bucks have allowed 105 points or less in 7 of their last 10 games. They have kept 4 of their last 10 opponents under 100 points. The Bucks have slowed their tempo a bit in recent weeks as well. 

The Knicks have the same offensive efficiency rate on the road as they have at home. The difference for them is they are better on defense at home than on the road. They get a home game at MSG on Christmas here.

This is such a high total and with there being question marks about whether these teams might pack it in early here or not, I have to take the value with the under.

The under is 27-11 in the last 38 non-divisional games on Christmas Day.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints haven't scored that many points in recent games, but these are still very good offenses. Pittsburgh throws the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They are throwing the ball on 2/3 of their offensive plays. 

The Steelers should be able to take advantage of the Saints secondary. Marshon Lattimore is very good, but the Saints don't have depth in the secondary. They have played some teams recent who haven't been able to take advantage of that weakness, but the Steelers should be able to.

What about Drew Brees and the Saints offense? They have too many weapons to be bad for too long. The Saints are back in the dome and they have put up big numbers here many times in the past.

This total has been pushed down because of recent results, but I see this as a recency bias situation. 

Two teams who are very capable of scoring in bunches and scoring quickly on the fast track.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings are looking to run the ball a lot more and have a more conservative offense under their new offensive coordinator. Minnesota is likely to play slower, and with a lot more runs it means a running clock which is clearly good for the under.

Detroit has been running the ball more lately as well. Why? Matt Stafford is banged up badly and is playing behind a very weak offensive line. Minnesota sacked him 10 times when these two teams met a few weeks ago! The Vikings will be in the backfield a lot again in this one.

Detroit has scored 17 points or less in each of their last four games. The Lions are without Kerryon Johnson and that hurts their efficiency in the running game significantly.

Both teams running it a lot and playing slower than the average NFL tempo. I expect a lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies are extremely well-coached by Chris Jans. Jans is a former assistant of Gregg Marshall's from Wichita State. He is a defense first guy, and you see that in the New Mexico State statistics for the season. 

New Mexico State is 62nd in the country in points per possession allowed.  They nearly won at Kansas, and only allowed 63 points in that game. They also held a high scoring Washington State team to 63 points. 

New Mexico State is excellent at dictating tempo. The Aggies are 319th in overall tempo so far this year (out of 353 teams). 

Drake hasn't played many defenses as good as New Mexico State. Drake is a young team that should be inconsistent on offense this year.

This game is played on a neutral floor which is a positive for the under. Neither team is accustomed to the setting and the sight lines.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Without Dean Wade, this Kansas State offense isn't the same. Wade was easily the team's highest rated offensive player before he went down with an injury. Bruce Weber's team is likely to slow the pace down and win with their defense as they play without their star.

Vanderbilt is much better on defense this year, but their offense isn't nearly as strong without Garland their star guard. The Commodores shouldn't be as efficient on offense against this Kansas State 2nd ranked defense in the country.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these teams have been pushing the pace to the extreme of late. I would expect nothing less here. Tenn Martin has one of the worst defenses in the country. They rank 341st out of 353 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Fresno State is playing a new style under coach Justin Hutson and they push the pace to the finish. I expect Fresno State to get a lot of easy points in transition and also get a lot of put back attempts with Tenn Martin's poor defensive rebounding.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Dons rank 16th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 24th in points per possession allowed. Stanford is 55th in points per possession allowed. 

San Francisco is a decent 91st in points per possession on offense. Stanford is 185th. 

These are two teams who are quite a bit better on defense than offense. The line has been pushed up some here, and I see value.

Stanford relies on trips to the line to score, but San Francisco ranks 6th in the country at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brown Bears are much better defensively this year. That was a point of emphasis in the offseason, and so far it has worked out nicely for Brown. They are 19th in the country in effective field goal percentage. They have struggled on offense though. They are 223rd in effective field goal percentage offense. Turnovers have been a big problem for the offense.

Marist has had a big change in style with new coach John Dunne taking over. Dunne has been known for his slow paced teams at St. Peter's for many years. Marist has become that very slow paced team that plays solid defense and holds teams to one shot. 

Brown has struggled to score on the road this year. They have scored 60 points or less in 3 of their 5 road games this season. 

Marist should slow the pace down here, and neither team is efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather here looks significant. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of about 28 mph with gusts to 40 or 45 mph during this game. There is also a 50% chance of rain.

That kind of weather changes a game significantly. Most defenses fair much better against the run than they normally do in these conditions. Why? The opposing offense is more predictable. 

FIU's offense is all about getting big plays in the passing game. Those will be much harder to come by with this weather. 

The FIU defense has done a great job keeping the opposition from breaking big plays. That's important against a Toledo offense that is capable of breaking big plays in the running game.

The pace that these two play at isn't very quick for a total set this high. FIU ranks among the 30 slowest teams in the country. Toledo ranks 49th. Both teams will use a decent amount of time between the snaps.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils are fantastic offensively, but this is a neutral site game at Madison Square Garden. They are up against a Texas Tech team that is easily first in the nation in points per possession allowed. 

Texas Tech should know not to get into a track meet with Duke. Look for Chris Beard's team to do its very best to turn this into a rock fight. The Red Raiders defense has been tremendous all year. They haven't allowed more than 67 points in a game thus far. They will likely allow more than that here, but I like seeing that type of defensive consistency.

Madison Square Garden is the best under venue in college basketball. It's a tough shooting backdrop and that is a clear bonus here.

In games where Duke is favored by 10 or more on a home or neutral court and the total is 140 or higher, the under is 9-1 in their last 10 games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are great at controlling tempo. They are 337th out of 353 in the country in average possession length on offense. Where is James Madison? They are 307th. There shouldn't be anyone pushing the pace here. 

Fordham has seen 5 of its last 8 games stay under this total in regulation. James Madison has had 4 of its last 5 stay under this number in regulation. 

These teams rank 239th and 289th in points per possession, so they aren't efficient at all. Both defenses have the upper hand and both offenses turn it over a lot.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Auburn Tigers like to push the pace under Bruce Pearl. Pearl has always been a guy who loves to encourage his teams to get out in transition and look to get some easy buckets. 

Auburn has faced only one team all year in the top 170 in the country in overall tempo. NC State ranks 14th. The Wolfpack aren't going to be afraid to run with Auburn. NC State has scored 80 points or more in 8 of their 10 games so far this year. 

NC State's defensive weakness is transition defense. Auburn should know that coming into this game, and the Tigers will be pushing and trying to get to the basket or get to the line. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 11 in the country in offensive rebounding. Look for plenty of second chance opportunities. With a lot of offensive rebounds, there are usually a lot of fouls and free throws as well. Both of these teams have a history of getting in foul trouble.

An up and down game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mercer has played 8 Division One opponents this year. There are 353 D1 teams in the country. Six of the eight teams Mercer has played have ranked in the top 150 in terms of tempo. The Bears have definitely been playing a lot of teams who are forcing the pace. Florida ranks 341st in overall tempo.

The Gators have an elite defense. Florida is 6th in the nation in points per possession allowed at 0.906. Florida is great at forcing turnovers and Mercer struggles with turnovers on offense. I expect Mercer to have trouble scoring here.

Florida is very inconsistent on offense. The Gators rank 186th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. How low scoring have Florida's games been? Six of their nine games have finished with 125 points or less.

I like this to be a low scoring contest- and with the number getting bet up across the board, I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers and Northern Illinois Huskies meet in an early season bowl game in the Boca Raton Bowl. UAB is all about running the football and they take their time between snaps. They can use a bunch of clock getting down the field, and if they are forced to kick a field goal it really helps the under a lot. 

Northern Illinois is 129th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Huskies simply can't do much of anything on offense. Northern Illinois has been up against weak MAC defenses all year, and they still didn't have much success. 

On the other hand, Northern Illinois is a great defensive team. They rank third in the nation in yards per carry allowed. That's important since UAB is going to run the ball so often here. Northern Illinois is a tremendous defensive front. They have 50 sacks this year, and they should be in the backfield a bunch. 

UAB's defensive front is very aggressive, and Northern Illinois often hurts themselves with big negative plays on first down. UAB can take advantage of that to put them in bad spots.

This looks like a very low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Xavier Musketeers have scored at least 68 points in 10 of their 11 games so far this year. They have scored 73 points or more in 9 of their 11 games. Xavier is first in the country in 2 point field goal percentage at over 60%. 

Missouri is a good defensive team, but they aren't elite. The Tigers rank 144th in effective field goal percentage defense. Missouri allowed 79 points to Temple and 82 points to Kansas State earlier this year.

Xavier's defense isn't very good. The Musketeers rank 219th in effective field goal percentage defense. Missouri takes a lot of shots from long range, and Xavier ranks 298th in the country at defending beyond the arc.

This number has been bet down too far for me to pass.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This line has moved too much. Arizona State wants to push the tempo of course, and Vanderbilt is playing quicker as well, but this total has gotten too high for me to pass on the under.

Vanderbilt is without star guard Darius Garland due to an injury, and he is the guy who pushed the pace and made this offense really go. Without him, I don't think Vanderbilt will play as fast, and they are unlikely to be as efficient. 

Vanderbilt is much better defensively than they were last year. The Commodores were 247th in effective field goal percentage allowed last year. They are 42nd in that same statistic this year. 

Arizona State was 18th in the nation in points per possession last year. They are 47th this year. The Sun Devils are still a good offense, but they aren't elite. The Sun Devils were 165th in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are 50th this season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks take on the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have been a good under team at Levi's Stadium since it opened. The under is 23-14 in their home games since this stadium opened. Divisional home games are 10-4 to the under.

Seattle runs the ball as much as anyone in the NFL. The Seahawks are looking to control the ball and use up a lot of time on offense. It has been working very well.

San Francisco's defense is a very solid 10th in yards per play allowed so far this year. The 49ers offense is certainly limited with so many injuries. Nick Mullens hasn't done a bad job, but he isn't dynamic by any means. 

The weather here plays a big factor in my reason for taking this under. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds with gusts to 26 mph during the game. It also calls for rain which could be heavy at times. Rain and wind combined is a big positive for the under. Look for an even more conservative game plan from both teams here, and that helps the defenses know what is coming.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens have totally changed their offensive game plan. Lamar Jackson is under center and the Ravens are looking to run the ball as much as possible. Most NFL teams are throwing the ball more than 60% of the time, but the Ravens are running it about 65% of the time in their last three games. Gus Edwards is getting a bunch of carries, and that should be the case again here.

Tampa Bay's defense has been much better in recent weeks. The Bucs are far from a great defense, but they aren't as bad as they looked earlier this year. Tampa Bay is a little healthier on the defensive end now than they were earlier this year. Tampa Bay is 20th in yards per play allowed in their last three games compared to 31st for the season. The Bucs are also better at stopping the run than the pass.

Baltimore's defense is easily number one in the league so far this year. The Ravens excel at stopping the pass, and that's what Tampa Bay wants to do here. I don't see Winston and this Bucs offense having much success through the air. Tampa Bay has a really weak ground game as well.

The weather here could be very helpful. Winds of 10-12 mph with rain showers are expected in the game. That should make the offenses more conservative and predictable.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Dana Altman has made it a key point to let his team know he wasn't happy with them taking bad shots early in the clock. The last two games they have taken a lot more time on offense, and it has worked out. Oregon is moving the ball more and slowing the tempo down a lot.

Oregon's defense is very underrated. The Ducks have a lot of length and they'll give Boise State's shooters a difficult time here.

Boise State doesn't have the offensive firepower they had a few years ago. The Broncos still work hard defensively.

I had this one pegged a few points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos offense wasn't great to start with, but now they are much weaker without Sanders as their primary wide receiver. Case Keenum isn't a terrible quarterback, but he needs weapons around him. He's short on weapons now. Denver can run the football, and I would expect them to run it even more than normal here. That takes more time off the clock.

Cleveland's offense has played very well of late, but they have been up against some very weak defenses. Denver's elite pass rush could pose some problems for the Browns passing game here. Cleveland still is only 18th in yards per play on offense. The Browns have also faced one of the easiest schedules of defensive units so far this year. Mayfield has been good and the Browns offense is much improved, but this is still a tough task for them at Denver at altitude.

These two defenses have both faced a very tough schedule of offensive units this year. I believe these two defenses are better than their numbers look right now.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Neutral site unders early in the year has been a tremendous angle in the long run in college basketball. This is one of those. Both of these teams shoot a lot of long ranger jumpers, and those are the shots that are tougher to hit with difficult shooting backdrops. 

This game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. This place isn't designed for basketball, and this place has a really unique shooting backdrop. A quick image search on Google shows a very deep backdrop that is much different than the players are accustomed to.

Virginia Tech has been extremely efficient all year on offense. They are good offensively, but Washington's matchup zone makes it tough for the long range jumpers to fall. On the other side, Washington's offense hasn't been very efficient last year or this year.

Virginia Tech has slowed their tempo down significantly compared to a couple years ago.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles rank 130th in the nation in pace of play. They are using about 33 seconds between plays. Georgia Southern is also running the ball on nearly 85% of their offensive plays. They can use up a ton of time getting down the field. 

Eastern Michigan's defense has had a long time to get ready for the option attack of Georgia Southern. That has to be a positive. The more time you have to prepare for a unique offense, the more it helps the defense. Eastern Michigan also did a pretty good job slowing down Army's triple option. Army only averaged 4.0 yards per carry in their win over Eastern Michigan.

Eastern Michigan's offense doesn't have much of a run game at all. They are left to try to throw the ball, but this offensive line is terrible in pass protection. Eastern Michigan often has a hard time recovering from these big negative plays on offense. 

A big key to this selection is the ability of both teams to prevent big plays. Georgia Southern allowed only 17 plays of 30 yards or more this year (12th best in the nation). Eastern Michigan allowed only 18 plays of 30 yards or more (20th best in the country). 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs defense has really impressed me in the last couple seasons. This is a very well-coached unit. Fresno State ranks 19th in yards per play allowed. They also rank as a top 12 defense against the pass. 

Arizona State's passing attack takes a big hit with N'Keal Harry sitting this game out. I expect the Sun Devils to rely more on the ground. While they are likely to get some yards here, I don't think it will come all that easy. Fresno State knows the Sun Devils are without their star wideout and they'll be loading up the box more than normal.

The Fresno State offense hasn't been very good running the ball this year. They have been very good throwing the ball, but the Mountain West had some very weak pass defenses this year. I'm not convinced they'll tear up the Arizona State secondary as they have some other teams. 

I think Arizona State runs the ball much more than normal here and plays conservatively. Both teams play at a slow tempo as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Neutral site unders early in the year has been a tremendous angle in the long run in college basketball. This is one of those. Both of these teams shoot a lot of long ranger jumpers, and those are the shots that are tougher to hit with difficult shooting backdrops. 

This game is at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. This place isn't designed for basketball, and this place has a really unique shooting backdrop. A quick image search on Google shows a very deep backdrop that is much different than the players are accustomed to.

Penn State has played eight straight games that have finished under this total. Most of them have finished far under the number. NC State has been really efficient on offense this year, but Penn State's defensive will make them work hard. The Nittany Lions will work to slow the game down as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave and the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns both have very solid offenses. These are both offenses that rely on the run, but they both get a lot of big gainers on offense as well.

Tulane has a whopping 36 plays of 30 yards or more (14th in the country) this season. Louisiana has been even better with an impressive 40 plays of 30 yards or more. That is ninth best in the country. How are the defenses when it comes to defending explosive plays? These two teams have allowed 34 and 33 plays of 30 yards or more, meaning both of them rank in the bottom 30 in the country in that category. There should be some big plays here.

Tulane found a good playmaker at quarterback in Justin McMillan. He has made good decisions in the option offense, and throws a decent ball as well. 

The Ragin' Cajuns defense was consistently allowing a bunch of yards and points this year. They allowed a whopping 6.39 yards per play. They only held one FBS team below 26 points. 

The Ragin' Cajuns offense has been great and they are balanced. They put up 42 points or more five times this year.

These are explosive offenses and this isn't a total that is all that high.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks got a message from Dana Altman before their last game. Quit taking bad shots early in the shot clock. They listened. Oregon slowed the tempo down in a big way in their win over Nebraska Omaha. Omaha prefers to play quick, but Oregon slowed that game down to a very slow 60 possession pace. Since that led to a nice win, I would expect them to slow it down again here.

Oregon has only played eight games, but they have played three games against teams in the top 12 in the nation in tempo. 

San Diego wants to play slowly. The Toreros aren't very efficient on offense. They haven't played a team in the top 40 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense this year. Where is Oregon? They sit at 15th. The Oregon Ducks throw a lot of different looks at teams on defense, and they should make it hard for San Diego to score here.

Both teams have been great at defending the 3 point line, which is a nice bonus here. I think this stays in the 130's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LSU Tigers are a good offensive team. There is no denying that. Maybe they'll shoot the ball really well and beat this under, but Houston has been great at imposing their will on the opposition this year.

Houston wants to play slowly and they want a grind it out low scoring game. This number has been pushed up since the opening line, and I have to grab it at this price. Houston has played six straight games that all finished at 138 points total or lower. The Cougars rank 351st out of 353 teams in the nation in tempo.

LSU isn't great on defense, but they are a lot better than they were last year. The Tigers are 142nd in effective field goal percentage defense. They were 265th last year. Their freshman class has some very good shot blockers, and LSU is stealing the ball at a much better rate this year. 

LSU has only played one very slow paced team this year (C of Charleston) and that was a very low scoring game.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The question about this Murray State team isn't whether they can defend. The Racers play an aggressive style of defense that really contests three-pointers well, and they force a lot of steals. Murray State's question this year is whether they can score enough. Murray State lost two very good offensive players in Stark and Miller. The Racers have looked good on offense so far this year, but who has it been against? Murray State has only played one team in the top 250 (out of 353) in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Southern Illinois  ranks 83rd in that metric. 

Southern Illinois is 279th in pace of play this year. Murray State is 197th. There's no reason to expect a fast-paced game here. Neither team has been very good at getting to the line. 

Southern Illinois relies heavily on the 3 point jumper. The Salukis are shooting 40.3% from deep, but Murray State ranks first in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense (20.7%). 

Both teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in taking care of the ball. Expect a lot of wasted trips on the offensive end due to turnovers, and that is a big plus for the under.

I had this game projected at 130 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Villanova has slowed their tempo down drastically this year. The Wildcats were 150th in tempo last year. So far this year, they are 344th. Villanova doesn't have the veteran ball handlers that they had last season, and Jay Wright has decided to slow things down quite a bit. 

Penn ranks 187th in tempo so far this year. They have played a lot of fairly fast paced games this year, but I believe that is due to who they have played against. The Quakers have only faced one team in the bottom 100 in terms of tempo so far this year. Villanova will easily be the slowest team they have gone against.

Villanova takes a bunch of 3 point shots. The Wildcats aren't nearly as efficient from 3 point range this year as they were a year ago. Villanova is up against a tremendous 3 point defense in Penn here too. The Quakers were 2nd in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense last year. They are 59th so far this year. 

Both teams rank in the top 45 in the country in least fouls committed. Neither offense is particularly good at getting to the line either.

This is a rivalry game and I expect a slow pace and a lot of effort on defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Monday MONEY* The Oklahoma City Thunder were beaten out of the NBA playoffs last year by the Utah Jazz. Oklahoma City ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency this year, and I would expect them to work very hard on defense in a game that means so much to them. The Thunder have been at their best defensively of late. Oklahoma City is allowing opponents to score only 0.979 points per possession in their last eight games.

Utah has underachieved defensively so far this year, but the Jazz are improving. On the year, they are 12th in defensive efficiency. In their last six games, they rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

These two teams met ten times last year. One game was 224, one was 217.. and the rest were 209 or lower. In fact, 6 of the 10 games finished at 197 points or lower. 

This is a very high total for a game involving these two teams. Expect a motivated defensive effort from both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Eagles offense is better than they were earlier this year. Darren Sproles is still good enough to make some big plays. Golden Tate is a key addition as well. Carson Wentz has more weapons to get the ball to, and with this game played on the fast track at Dallas I see the Eagles throwing for quite a few yards here. While Dallas is excellent against the run, they have been inconsistent against the pass this year.

Dallas is an elite running team with a star running back in Ezekiel Elliot. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, the Eagles have a bottom five rushing defense in the NFL. Elliot should have a big day here. While the Cowboys passing game isn't very good, they are clearly better with Cooper on the outside, and they have some play action capability at this point. 

It was 27-20 earlier this year when these two played. Both offenses are clearly better than they were earlier this season. This one is indoors as well which helps the over quite a bit.

Take the over here.

*3 Star Play Over* Andrew Luck and the Colts offense was averaging 34 points per game in their previous eight games before being shut out last week. I wouldn't expect the Colts to have a dud of an offensive game two weeks in a row. This Texans defense is elite against the run, but they aren't very good against the pass. They have a multitude of injuries in the secondary right now as well, so an already questionable pass defense is even worse. Indianapolis plays at the second fastest tempo of any team in the NFL. 

Houston's offense has been much better of late. Watson is looking more like the quarterback we saw last year, and the running game has improved. Houston ranks 8th in tempo, so they'll be pushing the pace as well. The Colts defense is at a disadvantage here against the pass. I don't believe they have enough depth in the secondary to prevent some big plays in the passing game. 

The first meeting between these two was 31-31 before overtime. That game was in a dome and this is in a dome as well. We should see a lot of possessions based on the tempo of each team. I see two passing attacks who have an edge vs. the pass defenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* A.W. Hamilton said before the season he wanted his Eastern Kentucky team to press and push the tempo to the extreme. He wasn't kidding. Eastern Kentucky ranks third out of 353 teams in the nation in tempo. How fast are they playing? They are playing faster than The Citadel or Marshall so far this year. North Carolina is 10th fastest in the nation at 76 possessions per game, but Eastern Kentucky is averaging nearly 4.5 possessions per game more than that. This team is playing extremely quickly.

Eastern Kentucky's full court pressing style has led to a bunch of fouling this year. They rank in the top 25 in most fouls committed. Northern Kentucky excels in getting to the line. Eastern Kentucky has allowed 90 points or more four times in just eight games against Division One opponents this year. 

Northern Kentucky has scored 88 points or more three times this year. Northern Kentucky also ranks in the top 25 in the nation in most fouls committed. 

A very fast paced game with a lot of free throw attempts here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Houston ranks as the third slowest paced team in the country thus far this year. The Cougars don't have nearly as much offensive firepower with Rob Gray gone. They have gone to slowing the game down and taking care of the ball on offense and leaning on a strong defense, and it has worked very well. 

Houston held a very fast paced BYU team to only 62 points on the road earlier this year. They held Oregon to 61 points as well. 

Oklahoma State has played a lot of teams who want to run so far this year. The Cowboys are up against a very different opponent here. Oklahoma State is relatively quick on offense, but I don't expect them to be all that efficient.

This number has been pushed up to a point where I feel comfortable taking the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Peter's Peacocks have one of the worst offenses in the country. St. Peter's hasn't scored more than 1.00 points per possession since their first game of the year. They have been at 0.96 points per possession or less in all but one of those games. St. Peter's now faces the second best defense they have faced this year (Auburn). In that Auburn game, St. Peter's averaged 0.64 points per possession and finished with 49 points.

Clemson isn't going to push the pace the way several of St. Peter's opponents have so far this year. Clemson has ranked in the bottom 100 in the nation in terms of tempo every single season since 2011. They are going to keep playing slowly this year. St. Peter's is even slower than Clemson, and the Peacocks are much more efficient on defense than offense.

Clemson ranked 7th allowing just 0.926 points per possession last year. They are at 25th so far this year. St. Peter's should find it hard to get anything going against them. 

St. Peter's shouldn't be able to score very much here. I think this total is a few points too high based on the tempo and the efficiency marks.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Total of the YEAR* The Green Bay Packers host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. Arizona ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per play. They have the worst passing attack and the worst running attack. Arizona's offensive line is weak, and Green Bay can really get after the passer. 

Arizona isn't bad on defense. The Cardinals are 9th in yards per play allowed in the NFL. They still have a good amount of very talented players on the defensive end. Green Bay's offensive line has struggled to protect Aaron Rodgers, and I see Arizona making it difficult for them. 

The weather here is very important. The average of 4 forecasts calls for 34 degrees and 20 mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph. There is also a chance of snow showers during the game (it is likely to be snowy in Green Bay Sunday before this game- and some snow during the game is at least possible). This is a huge plus for the under. It leads to more running and a much more conservative game plan. 

Arizona shouldn't be able to score very many at all here. The Packers offense isn't what it once was, and Arizona's defense is better than most realize.

Take the under. TOP Total of the Year.  *Be sure to still use wise bankroll management here- this is just a bigger play than most of mine* Thanks and good luck. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears take on the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon. Chicago is expected to have Chase Daniels under center. Daniels didn't look very good last week under center against Detroit, and the Lions defense is a weak one. I wouldn't count on big things from him here either. 

The Giants offense is 11th in yards per play in the NFL, but the Bears rank 2nd in yards per play allowed. The Bears are 19th in yards per play on offense, but I expect the Giants to load the box and dare Daniels to beat them throwing the football. 

Both of these teams move slowly. There won't be all that many possessions in this game. The Bears will be running the ball even more than normal, and the Giants want to run more often than they have so far this year as well. 

I wouldn't expect many big plays here. Both defensive fronts have an advantage against the offensive line in front of them, and I think there will be more tackles for a loss here than in a normal contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio State Buckeyes offense put on a show last week against Michigan. That was the top ranked defense in the country before Ohio State put up 62 points and more than 500 yards on them last week. Last week wasn't the first week the Buckeyes offense has looked good though. The passing attack is excellent with Dwayne Haskins leading the way. Haskins has a rocket for an arm and he has quite a few good receiving options on the outside. The Buckeyes running game has improved some in recent weeks as well. 

Northwestern's offense has improved toward the end of the year. Bowser has given them at least some decent production in the backfield. This is a team that throws it around often though, and they'll throw it around against a weak Ohio State secondary here. Clayton Thorson is a solid quarterback, and I think he'll have a good game here.

Both of these teams push the tempo, so there should be a lot of possessions in this game. Ohio State absolutely needs to win big here and be impressive, so I think they'll have their foot to the floor the whole game. We should see a wide open playbook as the Buckeyes showed last weekend. The Buckeyes defense has been weak all year, and I see Northwestern scoring a decent amount here too.

This game is played on a fast track under a dome in Indianapolis which should help the scoring as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos and Fresno State Bulldogs know each other very well at this point. They played twice last year, and this will be their second meeting this year. The previous three meetings were all won by Boise State with the following scores: 28-17, 17-14, and 24-17. None of those games were even very close to this total. 

In a title game, the motivation level should be very high to start with, and you know how badly Fresno has to want to beat Boise State now. The higher the motivation level- long-term it is good for the under. 

There is a slight chance of snow showers during this game. If that does come to fruition it helps the under ever so slightly in my opinion. 

Boise State's defensive numbers on the year are disappointing for sure, but they have played much better of late. Boise State has a lot of talent on defense, and I think this group is better than the statistics say. Fresno State has an elite defense, and they are great at not giving up big plays. 

Both teams play much slower than an average team, and that clearly helps as well.

This one should be a great game, and I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs are back to playing the way they are most comfortable. Old Dominion is using the clock up, and trying to win low scoring games because of their strong defense. The Monarchs are 18th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense according to KenPom. Old Dominion is 340th in tempo out of 353 teams. 

James Madison isn't much faster. The Dukes rank 295th in tempo. James Madison isn't very efficient on offense, because they turn it over way too much. James Madison crashes the offensive glass, but Old Dominion is tremendous at defensive rebounding. They won't get nearly as many second chance opportunities as normal. 

These two teams have played in each of the last two seasons. The final scores in those games were 69-53 Old Dominion and 62-55 Old Dominion. The Monarchs are the better team again this year. They should control the tempo and their defense should give James Madison a very difficult time again. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* This is the Conference USA title game, and we have two well-coached teams here. MTSU beat UAB 27-3 last week, though that game meant very little to UAB. 

This is the game that decides the Conference USA title, and I expect a strong effort from both teams. 

UAB is a very run-heavy team. The Blazers rank 115th out of 130 teams in the country in tempo as well, so they can really eat up the clock as they move down the field. UAB also has multiple injuries on the offensive line. If those guys play they are going to be less than 100 percent. AJ Erdely the team's starting QB, is dealing with a shoulder injury. He'll likely try to play through the pain. 

MTSU's defensive line dominated UAB's offensive line last weekend. The Blue Raiders defensive front has turned into one of the best in the conference. 

MTSU's offense is all about the passing game with Brent Stockstill at quarterback. UAB has the best pass defense in the conference. The Blazers are very experienced in the secondary and I expect them to be well-prepared for the Blue Raiders passing attack here.

The weather is a big plus for the under. The average of forecasts now calls for rain and winds of about 16-18 mph for this one. That makes MTSU run the ball more and they aren't efficient there. It should reduce the amount of explosive plays.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers beat the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 27-17 at home earlier this year. That was a regular season game, and this is the Sun Belt Conference title game. This game clearly means a lot to both teams.

The Ragin' Cajuns have a great rushing attack,  but Appalachian State's defensive front is very good. App State ranks first in the Sun Belt in yards per carry allowed this year. I think they'll do a good job once again against the Louisiana running attack.

Appalachian State has a good offense, but it isn't as dynamic as it was earlier this year. The Mountaineers lost star running back Jalen Moore to an injury, and that hurts the offense quite a bit. Thomas is a good quarterback, but Moore was the star of the show at running back.

Both teams play slowly. Louisiana ranks 87th in tempo and Appalachian State ranks 99th in the country in tempo. Both teams run the ball much more than the average team in the country, so there is a lot of moving clock when they play each other.

The weather here should be a factor. The average of 4 forecasts calls for 42 degrees with 13 mph winds and gusts of 20 mph or slightly higher. All forecasts are calling for a very high chance of rain as well. Cold rain and wind is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played in Belfast, Northern Ireland. This is a large arena that has been made into a basketball arena for these games, and the the under has done extremely well here in the past.

Buffalo plays very quickly, and the Bulls are good on offense. They are also good defensively though. Buffalo relies on a couple things on offense: their ability to shoot from long range, and their ability to get second chance points. San Francisco defense excels at stopping both of those things from happening. They are allowing 24.1% 3 point field goal percentage (6th in the country). They are 1st in the nation in defensive rebounding as well.

San Francisco isn't likely to want this game to be a track meet. I would think the Dons will try to make this a halfcourt game and win with their strong defense. The Dons are a well-coached team, and their defense is the strength of the team.

Neither team gets to the line much, and both are good at defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks and San Francisco Dons meet in Northern Ireland at SSE Arena in Belfast on Friday morning. This isn't typically a basketball arena, and that usually is a good thing for the under. The under is 5-1 in games played at SSE Arena thus far (last year and this year).

How good of a bet has the under been here? None of the 5 games that have stayed under the total at SSE Arena has stayed under the number by less than 5 points. Four of the five have stayed under by at least 11 points. 

Stephen F. Austin has some serious turnover issues. The Lumberjacks have turned it over at the fifth highest rate of any team in college basketball. A whopping 25.5% of their possessions on offense have ended with a turnover. They turned the ball over 24 times against SW Assemblies of God. That is an NAIA school! 

San Francisco plays great defense. The Dons are 33rd out of 351 in defensive efficiency, and Kyle Smith's teams have always been very strong on defense. The Dons are only average paced, and SF Austin has played slowly so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Joe's Hawks and the UIC Flames both like to push the tempo. St Joe's is 68th quickest in the country in terms of how quick in the shot clock they shoot it. UIC is 81st in that category. Both of these teams excel from 3 point range, and both defenses are weak against the 3 ball as well.

St. Joe's does a great job taking care of the ball also. The Hawks are first in the country in lowest turnover percentage (out of 353 teams). That certainly helps an over a lot. UIC has improved quite a bit in taking care of the basketball as well.

The spread on this game sits at a margin where it wouldn't be surprising at all for there to be a foul fest late in the game. That can be a big boost in scoring in the last couple minutes.

I see an up and down game the whole way, and this total is low enough that I see value on the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iona Gaels have a history of playing fast and having an efficient offense and a bad defense. Tim Cluess has the same type of team every year. Iona ranks 18th in tempo so far this year out of 353 teams in the country. They will push the pace here.

Ohio ranks 38th in the nation in tempo. The Bobcats have shot the ball terribly so far this year, which has made for some lower numbers in their games. Ohio is shooting 20.4% from 3 point range so far this year. That isn't going to continue. Positive regression is on the way here. Up against a poor Iona defense, I expect Ohio to have a lot of open looks.

The fact that Ohio has shot it so poorly this year has pushed this number down to where it is a good value. It's important to note that Ohio's worst shooting games were on a neutral floor. This game is a home game for them.

Look for an up and down game that is high scoring.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* With Ryan Tannehill getting back on the field for this one, I like the value on the over. 

Andrew Luck and this Indianapolis Colts offense are firing on all cylinders right now. The Colts having a good offensive line and a good running back in Marlon Mack is making a huge difference. The Colts are playing at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL right now as well. Miami's defense ranks 26th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Dolphins are giving up 6.4 yards per play on the road.

The Colts defense is middle of the pack, but they have faced weaker offenses in many recent weeks. Miami does have speed and with Tannehill they have more big play ability.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have played 11 games this year. None of them have gone over this total. San Diego State excels at controlling the time of possession, running the play clock down and keeping their defense off the field. 

Hawaii is a big play offense, but San Diego State is good when it comes to not giving up big plays. The Hawaii defense has been much stronger against the run in recent weeks, which is important since San Diego State will be running the ball a lot here. 

This is a similar type of game to Hawaii/Army earlier in the year. Army runs it better than San Diego State though, and San Diego State has a better defense. I think we see a game in the 40's as San Diego State gets a lead and then runs the ball and eats up a bunch of the clock. Hawaii plays only at an average pace, and San Diego State plays very slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* SMU has to win this game to become bowl eligible. Teams looking to become bowl eligible in their final game of the regular season have been strong trends toward the under. That certainly makes sense to me because as games means more it tends to help the under.

It has surprised me that SMU has actually been better on the defensive end than on offense this year. When Sonny Dykes took over, that isn't what you would expect. However, SMU has been winning games thanks to their defense. SMU's defensive numbers in the conference would make them a top 50 defense in the country. 

Tulsa is averaging a brutal 4.26 yards per play in the conference. Remember, this isn't a conference with many good defenses either. Tulsa is just that bad on offense. They have no passing game at all. 

SMU is all about the pass. The Mustangs have a very weak running attack. Ben Hicks and the passing game are solid, but Tulsa is much better against the pass than the run on defense.

The weather here helps the under also. Winds of 16 mph with gusts above 20 should make it harder to move the ball through the air.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over*  Louisiana Lafayette has a brilliant offense and a weak defense. The Ragin' Cajuns are 11th in the nation in yards per play. They are 107th in the nation in yards per play allowed. This is a team that has a whopping 35 plays of 30 yards or more so far this year. 

LA Monroe's offense has been a bit disappointing of late, but they tore up this LA Lafayette defense last year, and I think they'll have a lot of success here too. Monroe has had terrible turnover issues in the red zone this year, and with some normalization of those red zone numbers their offense should improve.

A back and forth high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners were blasted last week at Western Kentucky. That was primarily because of a ridiculous turnover problem. UTEP's defense has actually gotten a lot better throughout the season. UTEP is doing a good job not giving up big plays. The Miners are 50th best in the country allowing only 46 plays of 20 yards or more on the year. UTEP's yards per play allowed has trended in the right direction inside conference play.

Southern Miss has been great on defense this year. The Golden Eagles are 13th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Southern Miss has allowed only 29 plays of 20 yards or more, which is 5th best in the country.

The weather should play a role here too. Winds of about 20 mph are expected in El Paso for this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Saturday. This is a big rivalry game, and we've seen a bunch of lower scoring games when these two get together. 

Georgia Tech couldn't get anything going offensively last year in this matchup. Kirby Smart is a great defensive mind, and I would be surprised if Georgia Tech's triple option attack has a ton of success here. Georgia Tech's passing attack is terrible.

Both teams are very run heavy, and both teams move slowly. In fact, both rank in the bottom 12 in the country in terms of tempo.

A slow pace in a rivalry game with a lot of moving clock- I believe this total is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* This number is a case where recency bias has allowed us to get a lower number than we should have on this game. Texas Tech is coming off a really poor offensive outing against Kansas State. The Kansas State secondary is solid though, and it is important to note that there were winds of 20-25 mph in that game. That helped slow down Texas Tech as well.

Baylor is coming off a couple low scoring games, but that was against Iowa State and TCU. Those are great defensive teams that are limited on offense. That isn't the type of opponent Baylor has in this game.

Baylor has allowed 32 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Texas Tech has allowed 33 plays of 30 yards or more this year. 

This one is played in AT&T Stadium, which is certainly good for the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* If you just look at these two teams from a statistical standpoint, this total looks about right. If you look at more of the outside factors, this total appears too high. Both of these teams are 5-6 and need a win here to get to a bowl game. The under trends are strong when one team is trying to reach a bowl game, and they are very strong when both teams are attempting to reach a bowl game.

In addition, the forecast calls for winds of 12 or 13 mph. That isn't enough to make a huge difference, but it does have a small effect on the game.

Thirdly, this is a very hard fought rivalry. The winner of this game gets the Old Oaken Bucket. It's one of the best rivalry trophies in sports. 

These two badly want to beat each other, and there is a lot on the line. This total has been bet up to where I have to take the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have committed themselves to playing extremely fast and using full court pressure even more this year. Arkansas State is using only 14.6 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. That is 14th quickest in the country. 

Arkansas State has two major problems on defense that both help scoring. Arkansas State can't grab defensive rebounds, and they do a bunch of fouling. 

UNC Wilmington wants to push the pace as well, and Wilmington has been a team that fouls a bunch the last couple seasons as well. The Seahawks do turn the ball over a lot and I would expect Arkansas State to get plenty of easy looks in transition here.

An up and down game with both teams getting to the line often. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Marshall will push the pace about as well as anyone in the country. Dan D'Antoni's team has great guards who can push the pace and get into the lane and kick it out to open 3 point shooters. 

Marshall was much better defensively last year because of Penava and his shot blocking ability, but he is gone now. I think Marshall will be worse on the interior defensively this year. 

Maryland has tried to run when they can so far this year, but they haven't played any teams who want to run with them. The Terrapins haven't played a team who ranks in the top 170 in the country in tempo so far this season. That all changes here. Marshall ranks 4th in overall tempo.

An up and down game. Maryland should get on the offensive glass here and get a lot of second chance opportunities here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines offense should slip slightly this year without Wagner, but their defense may be even better than last season. The Wolverines are easily first in the nation so far this year in both effective field goal percentage and points allowed per possession (0.868). This is a team that can really clamp down on the opposition.

Michigan is a team that does a great job slowing the game down. Chattanooga wants to play slowly with Lamont Paris as their head coach (a former Bo Ryan associate at Wisconsin). This game should be played very slowly.

Michigan has only had one game all year above 119 points total. Chattanooga is averaging only 54 points per game in their last 3 contests, and that was against S Alabama, Jacksonville, and SE Missouri State. They should have a very hard time scoring here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls have already wrapped up their side of the MAC. That means they can play wide open in this one. Bowling Green has nothing to play for here other than pride. The less the game means to both teams, the more helpful it is to an over in my opinion.

Buffalo's passing attack with Jackson and Johnson are too good for this Bowling Green secondary. Buffalo's defense looked bad last week and I think Bowling Green's uptempo offense can do enough here as well.

Both of these offenses have been bad in the red zone, and I think they are bound to have some positive regression toward the mean as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Iowa has played some tremendous defense at home this year. The Hawkeyes are giving up 11 points per game at home. Iowa ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Iowa's run defense is a huge area of strength. Iowa ranks third in the nation in rushing defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Overall, Iowa is allowing only 3.08 ypc. That's important here since Nebraska is a team that relies on running the ball. The Cornhuskers average 5.49 ypc, but I don't see them being able to gash the Hawkeyes defense like they have to many others this year. Iowa's defense has only allowed 23 plays of 20 yards or more all year. That is second best in the country. 

Iowa's offense is much better in the passing game than the running game. Iowa is averaging only 3.97 yards per play on the year. Nebraska's secondary has been strong, but their run defense has been susceptible. I'm not sure Iowa has the running game to take advantage of that. 

The passing attacks will be impacted by the weather here. The weather calls for steady light rain and 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph during this game. That's a clear plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints have been putting up amazing offensive numbers this year. They have gotten better as the year goes along. Drew Brees is playing fantastic football right now, and his wideouts are excellent. It also helps that the Saints offensive line is tremendous in pass protection.

The Falcons rank 27th in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Brees torched this Atlanta defense the first time they met, and I think he'll do it again here. The Falcons secondary is  more banged up than it was the first time these two played this year. 

Atlanta still has a very good passing attack, and the one weakness of this Saints team is their pass defense. New Orleans ranks 28th in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. The Saints pass rush is below average as well. Matt Ryan should be able to have another big day. He threw for 5 touchdowns and no picks in the first meeting.

This is a high total, but today's NFL is quite a bit different than it was a few years ago. The offenses have the upper hand based on the rules. 

This one is played on the fast track in New Orleans. I expect a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force triple option is hard to prepare for any time, but when you have a short week like Colorado State does here, it is especially difficult. Colorado State ranks 124th in the country in yards per play allowed. This is a defense that has struggled badly all season.

Collin Hill has done a decent job leading this offense since taking over at quarterback. Colorado State will throw it a lot, and Air Force's clear weakness on defense is their secondary. Air Force is 120th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt.

The weather looks fine for this one and I see both offenses moving the ball a lot.

Take the over.  

*4 Star Play Over* The BYU Cougars have decided to pick up the tempo this year. BYU strayed from their normal strategy of running last year, and it wasn't a good fit for the offense. They are back to running again this year. 

Rice is going to push the tempo as much as possible under Scott Pera. In fact, they rank 48th in the nation so far this year in shortest average possession length. BYU ranks 40th in that same statistic. 

BYU has shot a really poor percentage from 3 point range so far this year, but I expect positive regression there. Rice's defense is a clear weakness.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I don't understand the line move here. For many years both Texas State and Cal Poly have been very slow paced teams. They have both faced some very fast paced opponents in the early going this year, and that has skewed their numbers in the early going. I expect both of these teams to end up being similar to what they have been in past years. Both still have the same coaching staffs.

Cal Poly settles for long range jumpers and very rarely gets to the free throw line. Texas State is great at forcing turnovers, but they turn it over a lot themselves as well.

I capped this one in the low 130's. Of course these teams could shoot a really high percentage and get over this number, but I think the odds are good of this one staying under. I'll fade the early line move.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CBB Total Domination* The Wright State Raiders have played 4 games against Division I teams so far this year. Three of their four opponents have been very fast paced teams who are weak on the defensive end. The final totals in those games were very high and that has contributed to this number being inflated. Wright State scored only 54 against a Murray State defense that is good.

Penn State lost Tony Carr and Shep Garner from last year's team. Those two were the team's best outside shooters. Penn State is lacking in firepower on the offensive end this season. I expect them to continue to play very good defense. So far this year, Penn State is allowing only 0.916 points per possession, which is 11th in the country. 

This game is played at Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya and the under is 21-11 in the last 32 games played there. This fits the angles of early neutral site contests being 56% to the under in the last ten years.

Take the under.