*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are very good at making a game low scoring. Northern Iowa is 345th in the country in tempo. The Panthers are also averaging only 0.975 points per possession in the MVC. On defense, N Iowa is 40th best in the country in defensive efficiency. They very rarely foul (11th best in country) and very rarely get to the line.

Loyola Chicago has surprisingly been the best team in the MVC this year. Loyola plays at a similar tempo. The Ramblers rank 316th out of 351 in the country in pace of play. They are much better offensively, and equal for the season defensively to Northern Iowa. Inside the conference, Loyola is allowing only 0.929 points per possession. 

The first game between these two was played at a pace of only 57 possessions. This one I would project at the 59 possession mark, and even at that level it will take some good shooting numbers to get past this total, especially with neither team fouling much (if they stay true to form). 

My numbers are considerably lower here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Davidson Wildcats ranked 77th in the country in tempo two years ago. They were generally known as a very high scoring team. Last year, they slowed it down to 161st in tempo in the country. This year, they have slowed down drastically, Davidson ranks 320th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. 

Davidson is still a good offense, but there are a lot fewer possessions in their games now than there were in the past. In 3 of Davidson's last 4 contests, there have been 57 possessions or less. That's about as slow as you'll ever see.

Richmond is 228th in the country in tempo. The Spiders won't want to run against a good offense like Davidson. Richmond was able to stop Davidson in the first game, and they won 69-58.

Davidson should get revenge here, and the Wildcats have shown they are perfectly happy to slow the game to a halt late when they have the lead. 

Davidson's previous reputation makes this line too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders are a really good under team for several reasons. First, they are excellent on defense. The Blue Raiders are easily first in the conference in defense, and they are actually 21st best in the nation out of 351 teams. MTSU also slows the tempo down in a big way. MTSU is 310th out of 351 teams in average possession length on offense. MTSU also is also worse on offense this year with JaCorey Williams and Reggie Upshaw gone from last year's very good offense.

MTSU has had only 2 of their 8 games in conference go over this total. One was an overtime game that finished at 137 points. The other was a 136 point game against Marshall, who ranks fourth in the nation in pace of play.

UTEP tends to play to the pace of their opponent. The Miners aren't likely to be able to get things going quickly here. 

I expect MTSU to get a lead here and then slow things down and keep this under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green host the FIU Panthers on Saturday. North Texas is an improved team under new coach Grant McCasland. North Texas is slowing the game down and playing much more competitively on the defensive end than they did a year ago. 

FIU is about average in the country when it comes to tempo, but they are terrible on offense. FIU is 310th out of 351 teams in offensive efficiency. Inside the conference, they are averaging only 0.947 points per possession. They are shooting a miserable 58.6% from the free throw line.

North Texas has kept their home games to lower paces on average. I expect them to be able to slow this one down.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of the MONTH* The Missouri State Bears have underachieved so far in the MVC, but they are definitely the better team here. Missouri State is the team that plays very slowly, and I like playing unders when I am trusting the better team (with a good defense) to slow the game down.

Eight of Missouri State's last ten games have finished with a combined total of 124 points or less. They rank 321st out of 351 in the country in tempo. They also rank 9th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 304th in FTA/FGA so they don't spend much time at the line. 

Southern Illinois has had some higher scoring games of late, but that was against the faster paced teams in the league. Those were also teams who can't defend nearly as well as Missouri State. Those higher scoring games have pushed this total up to several points above where it should be.

I think this one stays in the 120's.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas started the season playing slower, but they have gone back to playing quicker again as the season has gone along. Sometimes we see things like this where a team tries to change the way they play, but eventually they end up back with what they are accustomed to.

Kent State and Central Michigan just played three weeks ago. That game finished at 154 points, and it was played at a pace of 75 possessions (very quick). There were only a total of 32 free throws in that game, and the teams shooting percentages were nothing out of the ordinary.

Kent State and Central Michigan are both subpar defenses, and with a quick tempo this should get past the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The first time these two met this year the final score was 104-99. I'm not here to predict anything like that again, but I do think this total is too low.

Montana State and Southern Utah are both teams that get to the free throw line a lot, and they both shoot a very high percentage from the line. Both teams foul a bunch as well, and that should mean a lot of trips to the free throw line once again here. 

Montana State ranks 245th in the country in defensive efficiency. Southern Utah ranks 332nd in defensive efficiency. 

Southern Utah is a six point dog here, and they have proven to foul constantly late in the game when they are down. If Montana State does lead late, this will help the over significantly.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange have played the fewest bench minutes of any team in the country out of 351 teams. Jim Boeheim's team has a really short bench, and they are expected to be without Matthew Moyer in this one. That should mean Syracuse wants to slow the game down even more than normal to keep their starters fresh.

Pittsburgh is moving at the second slowest pace on offense in the ACC behind only Virginia. The Panthers are without star forward Ryan Luther, and that is a huge hit to the offense.

These two played less than two weeks ago and the final was 59-45. The tempo was only 59 possessions. Another game with a tempo of about 60 and a projected total in the 116-118 range makes sense to me.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Ohio Redhawks have been the slowest paced team in the MAC so far this year when you go by length of possession on offense alone. Eastern Michigan has been the slowest paced team overall in the MAC. 

We get a meeting between two teams who like to slow things down and win the grind it out type games. They have had to play teams like Buffalo and Bowling Green who push the pace in a big way. This game is a chance for them to get back to doing what they want. 

Both teams have significantly better numbers on defense than offense as well. This projects as a low scoring tight game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Georgia State and Texas State have played eight times all time. All of those meetings have come since 2014. None of those games have finished regulation with a combined score higher than 124. 

These teams both prefer to play at a slow pace, but they are playing in a league where there are several teams who push the tempo. Texas State actually ranks 348th in the nation in tempo (out of 351), so they are extremely slow.

Both teams are good at forcing turnovers, and Texas State has been bad at taking acre of the basketball so it is likely they'll waste a decent amount of possessions here. 

I don't see any reason to expect things to change from their past history. Another low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Toronto Raptors host the Utah Jazz on Friday night. Utah has Rudy Gobert back in the lineup now, and he's one of the best defensive players in the NBA. That changes the look of this Jazz team. 

Utah is without Rodney Hood for this game. Hood is the team's second leading scorer at 16.7 points per game. The Jazz have struggled mightily on offense in their last two games without him. Utah scored 90 points against Atlanta and then scored only 98 in an overtime game at Detroit. 

Toronto is fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the year. The Raptors are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in home games this year. Utah is third worst in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the road. 

All 3 referees for this game are under refs in their careers: Forte has a 53.8% under rate, Callahan has a 52.5% under rate, and Goble has a 54% under rate. That's a nice bonus here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels know how to control the tempo. St. Mary's ranks 341st in tempo. They were 350th last year. This is a system where they are going to use up the clock and find the best shot possible.

St. Mary's has a great offense, but their numbers are at least a little bit propped up by playing against some terrible defenses in the West Coast Conference. Teams like Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount aren't guarding anyone. 

BYU has turned itself into a slower paced team this year, and they are much better on defense. The Cougars are 32nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams are tremendous at grabbing defensive rebounds. Second chance opportunities should be rare here. The first game between these two went into overtime (74-64 final) and there were only a total of 13 offensive rebounds. There were only 29 free throws as well. Both of these teams are great at defending without fouling.

With the tempo I expect, I like the value here on the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wichita State Shockers have played 19 games so far this year. How many of them have stayed under this number? Zero. Wichita State's lowest final total this year has been 131 points against a good Baylor Bears defense.

UCF is ranked fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year, but they definitely aren't the fifth best defense in the country without star 7'6 center Tacko Fall in the middle of the paint swatting away and changing shots. Fall was injured a couple games ago, and he is out for the season. 

In UCF's first game without Tacko Fall, they allowed 69 points and 1.08 points per possession (they are allowing 0.897 for the year) to a lowly South Florida offense. South Florida has averaged 0.87 points per possession in AAC play overall. UCF's defense is still good, but they are no longer elite.

UCF's offense will be better now that B.J. Taylor is back and healthy.

Wichita State isn't as good on defense this year. The Shockers were 1st in the country in defensive efficiency two years ago. They were 13th last year. So far this year they are 60th in defensive efficiency. 

Wichita State is playing quicker as well. They should push the tempo enough and score better than expected against UCF without Fall.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys rank 9th in the nation in shortest average time of possession on offense. They are looking to run, and that won't change in this one. Nevada is 61st quickest on offense.

The last two meetings between these two teams have both played at a pace of 84 possessions. That's about as fast as you'll ever see a game played, especially in conference play. Nevada is more than willing to run with Wyoming here.

Both teams excel at getting to the free throw line. Wyoming is 9th in the nation in FTA/FGA and Nevada is 61st in this mark as well. 

This game spread sits right at the fouling range where if the oddsmakers are right and Nevada wins by 5 or 6, you can expect a lot of fouling late. Wyoming has shown they will foul down a bunch late in previous losses this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters have been a good under team in recent years. They aren't very efficient on offense, but they are always good on defense.

UC Irvine lost their leading scorer from last year in Luke Nelson. This is a team that has no clear star on the offensive end. They are one of the two or three best in the Big West on defense though. 

UC Riverside has really struggled on offense all year. Riverside has been held to 57 points in two of their last four games, and a very small number from them here wouldn't be a surprise.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in taking care of the basketball. That means a lot of wasted possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Nebraska Cornhuskers defense has been tremendous this year. Nebraska ranks 25th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. On the other side, Rutgers is averaging a miserable 0.88 points per possession in Big Ten play. 

The Scarlet Knights have been held to 59 points or less in regulation in Big Ten play in 5 of their 8 games. Rutgers is competitive this year because they are much improved on defense. Rutgers is 19th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 15th in the nation in effective field goal percentage.

Both teams prefer a slow tempo, and I expect this one to be a rock fight.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* UNC Greensboro has been great at controlling the pace of play so far this year. Greensboro is 336th out of 351 in the nation in tempo. They have been excellent on defense and subpar on offense all year. 

Furman is 2nd in the SoCon in defensive efficiency. Greensboro is 3rd in that same category. Furman has been playing to the pace of their opponent so far this year, and that's a good thing for the under here.

All five of Greensboro's last five games have stayed under this number in regulation. That includes an amazing 130 point total against The Citadel, who gets games into the 170's and 180's most of the time.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mercer Bears are expected to be without star Ria'n Holland in this one. Holland is averaging 19.0 points per game on the year. No one else on the team averages more than 10.9 points per game. Holland has a wrist injury and a beat writer said the team expects him to miss at least two weeks. 

Mercer plays at an extremely slow pace. Without Holland, this is an extremely limited offense. They'll rely on the 3 ball to be falling, but E Tennessee State is allowing opponents to shoot only 27.6% from 3 point range in Southern Conference action.

E Tenn State has allowed 61 points or fewer in each of their last four games. Mercer has scored 56 or less in regulation three times in conference play. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Oklahoma State Cowboys go to Lubbock to take on Texas Tech on Tuesday night. Texas Tech is coming off an ugly loss at Iowa State. Look for Chris Beard's team to be ready to play here.

Texas Tech is fourth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Red Raiders have slowed their pace on offense by almost a full second per possession inside conference play. I fully expect them to try to slow this game down, and when you have a great defense and a big favorite who is looking to slow the game down, this is a high total.

Oklahoma State has had two low scoring games in the Big 12 against Baylor and Texas. Those two teams are ranked 8th and 10th in the league in tempo. Who is 9th? Texas Tech. Texas Tech has had only one game in the Big 12 go over this total despite playing some very fast paced teams.

My numbers have this one quite a bit lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals offense has fallen off drastically in recent weeks. Ball State is averaging only 0.979 points per possession in MAC play. Ball State has seen 9 of their last 10 games stay under this total. 

Kent State's offense hasn't been very good either. The Golden Flashes have scored 70 points or less in 7 of their last 10 contests. 

Both teams are playing considerably slower than they did a year ago. Neither team has been very good at getting to the line this year. 

With this being a conference game between two offenses who have struggled and two teams who are playing slower this year, I think this one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are one of the best under teams in the Big 12. Baylor ranked as the slowest paced team in the league last year. They are second slowest so far this season. 

Baylor is excellent on defense as well. The Bears are 21st in defensive efficiency in the country. Baylor defends without fouling much at all. The Bears do struggle with turnovers on offense, and Kansas State ranks in the top 25 in forcing turnovers.

Kansas State plays at a medium tempo. Their ability to mix up defenses often slows the opposition down even more. 

Two of the three meetings between these two last year stayed under this number. Two of the games paced at 62 possessions and 59 possessions. Expect another slow paced game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes have been great this season. Chris Holtmann is doing one of the best coaching jobs in the country. This is a team that was picked to be near the bottom of the Big Ten. So far, they are unbeaten in the conference.

Ohio State is doing it with both great shooting and elite defense. They are 11th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. Ohio State is doing a great job defending without fouling. They are also very good at getting defensive rebounds. 

Nebraska has struggled on offense inside the Big Ten for the last few years. I think they'll continue to struggle on offense this year in this conference. Nebraska was putting up better than 1.1 points per possession in non-conference play. They are at 0.99 points per possession inside the Big Ten.

Both teams play at a pace slightly below average. Both are better on defense than offense. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles meet in Philadelphia to decide who will play in the Super Bowl and represent the NFC.

Minnesota ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed on the year. The Vikings have one of the best defensive minds in football as their head coach. I think they'll have a great game plan ready defensively. 

Philadelphia's defensive front is excellent with Fletcher Cox leading the way. This Eagles defense played great in the home underdog role last week, and I expect a strong effort again.

Both of these teams play at a pace slower than the league average. Both teams have backup quarterbacks at the helm, and I expect pretty vanilla game plans on offense. 

This sets up as a field position game, and a game where there are likely to be a lot of field goal attempts rather than touchdowns. Both of these defenses have been good at limiting touchdowns in key spots.

This is a low under, but it is low for a reason. Expect a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons host the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday afternoon. 

Brooklyn started the season playing at an extremely quick tempo. They were among the top three in the NBA in tempo. Of late that has changed a lot. Brooklyn ranks 15th in the NBA in tempo in their last 8 games. The Nets rank dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. They are playing too much one on one and not moving the basketball. On the other end, Brooklyn is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency during this span.

Detroit ranks 19th in tempo in the last eight games. The Pistons are 21st in offensive efficiency during that time.

The under is 36-14-1 in the Pistons last 51 after allowing 100 or more last game. The best day for unders in the NBA long term has been Sunday's, by a large margin. I'll take the under at this high number.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NBA Game of the MONTH* The Portland Blazers host the Dallas Mavs on Saturday night. Both of these teams are far different than they were earlier this season. 

Portland started the season as a team that was one of the best defenses in the NBA for the first month or two of the year. That has changed in a big way. 

Dallas started the season playing slowly and struggling badly on offense. With the emergence of Dennis Smith Jr. this offense has been much better of late, and they have sped things up.

In their last ten games, Dallas ranks second in the NBA in offensive efficiency and Portland ranks 5th. Defensively, the Mavericks are 21st in the league and the Blazers are 24th in that time span. Both teams are playing at almost exactly the league average tempo during that time.

Portland has scored 110 points ore more in 8 of their last 10 games. The Mavericks have scored 114 points or more in six of their last nine games.

I think this number is too low based on how these teams played earlier in the season. The number hasn't been adjusted enough.

Take the over big.

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners average possession length on offense is 5th shortest of anyone in the country. They are moving extremely quickly and getting up a lot of shots. UTSA also commits an extremely high amount of fouls on the defensive end. They are among the top 15 in the country in most fouls committed. This obviously contributes to a lot of scoring as well.

UTEP is among the top 100 (out of 351) in the country in most fouls committed too. There should be a bunch of trips to the stripe here. 

UTEP is allowing 80.75 points per game in their last four contests. Their defense has gotten worse as the season has gone along. UTSA has allowed 73 points or more in each of their last four games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears have played all of their Big 12 games so far this year to 140 points or lower.

Kansas is a tremendous offense, but the Jayhawks and Bears have a history of playing lower scoring games against each other. Baylor knows they can't run with Kansas here. The last four times these two have played- the highest scoring game was 141 points. 

Baylor's offensive efficiency is way down this year, but they are still solid on defense. This number is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels are excellent at getting the pace they want. UNLV definitely wants to run, and I think they can make this a high scoring game.

UNLV has seen their last 11 straight games over this posted total. Three of Colorado State's last six have topped this total as well.

Both of these teams are great at getting to the line. UNLV is 4th in the nation in FT/FGA and Colorado State is 88th (out of 351). 

Look for a fast tempo and lots of trips to the stripe to get this one past the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mercer Bears are 336th in the nation (out of 351) in tempo. UNC Greensboro is 335th in the nation in tempo. Both of these teams want to slow things down, and we should get an extremely slow game here.

UNC Greensboro is playing a full two seconds per possession slower on offense than last year, and that has meant a ton of low scoring games. The Spartans were 173rd in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 68th so far this year.

I project this game to have 59 possessions, and without some really high shooting marks this one will stay under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Tennessee State Bucs have been the best defense in the SoCon by a large margin this year. They are allowing slightly less than 0.90 points per possession in the conference. 

Western Carolina was the worst offense in the conference last year, and they are second worst so far this season. 

Both of these teams excel at forcing turnovers, and both offenses have struggled with turnovers. Expect a lot of wasted possessions in this game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles ranked 184th out of 351 teams in tempo last year. So far this season, they are 303rd. This is a team that has slowed things down and decided to try to win low scoring battles with their defense. 

Eastern Michigan has one main weakness on defense: they give up too many offensive rebounds. Ohio is the worst offensive rebounding team in the MAC, so that limits their ability to take advantage of the one weakness.

Ohio is really bad on offense right now. They have averaged 0.918 points per possession in MAC play. That's easily worst in the conference.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* LSU has slowed their tempo down drastically in league play. The Tigers play another team who slows things down in a big way here in Vanderbilt. While Vanderbilt has been bad defensively this year, I think their defense should improve a bit from here on out. They were solid last year on defense, and I expect a bit of a regression to the mean.

LSU has been much worse on offense in the conference, and they have been improving steadily on defense.

It's extremely rare to find a game where two teams are going to play as slowly as these two lined with a total of almost 150 points. They'll need to shoot a high percentage to get past this number. I like the value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies have a lot of youth, but this Huskies team is buying into Mike Hopkins' plan on the defensive end. The Huskies have good athleticism and solid length and the 2-3 matchup zone is working well for them. Opponents are scoring only 0.982 points per possession against Washington in Pac 12 play. 

The Huskies offense is averaging only 0.96 points per possession in Pac 12 play. Washington has played four straight fast paced Pac 12 opponents, but all four of those games stayed under this total. 

Utah is playing at the slowest pace on offense of any team in Pac 12 play. The Utes are using 19.9 seconds of the 30 shot clock on average. This will be easily the slowest paced team Washington has played in the conference. The Huskies have been playing very fast paced teams thus far in conference play.

The slower tempo and different defensive looks should keep this one lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Alabama Jaguars have been pushing the pace to an extreme of late. Six of their last seven games have played to a pace of 72 possessions or faster.

Coastal Carolina is putting people on the line a lot this year, and in general the Chanticleers defense is much worse than it was a year ago. They are giving up 77 points per game in their last four contests. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 95 in the country in getting to the free throw line. In a game that should be close, a bunch of trips to the line with teams in the bonus early could be important in pushing this one past the total. 

In South Alabama's last 9 games against Division One opponents, 7 of them have topped this total. I think they dictate the pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't like taking an under this low, but by my numbers I have to do it. Virginia is the slowest paced team in the country. Georgia Tech is 323rd in tempo out of 351, so they play very slowly too. Last year when these teams met they finished at 111 points, and I think that's a good prediction for this contest too.

Georgia Tech's offense is averaging only 0.959 points per possession in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets are actually first in ACC play in defensive efficiency though, allowing only 0.872 points per possession. 

Virginia is first in the nation in defensive efficiency on the year, and they are second in ACC play in that stat. The Cavs are allowing only 0.853 points per possession on the year. 

A very slow paced game where both defenses do a good job defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cal State Fullerton Titans are first in the nation in FT/FGA so far this year. They are attacking the rim and then shooting 72.2% from the line. Fullerton is also averaging 72 possessions per game this year. Their pace is much quicker than last year.

UCSB is a different team this year under a new coach as well. This is no longer a team that looks to stall and win low scoring games. UCSB is 58th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are shooting almost 40% from three point range. Fullerton's 3 point defense has been really bad this season.

With a high tempo and plenty of free throws and open looks from three point range, I see this one going past the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns and Texas Tech Red Raiders met three times last year. All three games stayed below this posted total. They finished at 120, 124, and 113 points. None were even close to this number. 

These are two excellent defenses. Texas Tech was only 56th in defensive efficiency last year. They are third so far this year. A huge jump. Texas was 21st last year, and they are 7th this season. 

Both teams have slowed their pace down drastically in Big 12 Conference play. Despite playing three fast paced teams in their last four contests, Texas has played 3 of their last 4 games to a final regulation total of 129 points or less. 

This number was bet up on the open to a point where I have to take the under. These defenses are too good for me not to.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are coming off a rare higher scoring game, but this is a team that has been consistently under this number. In fact, their first five MVC games were all 129 points or lower. Last game, they shot the ball extremely well and they won 81-65. I think that game was the exception rather than the rule. That last game though is giving us value on the number here.

Southern Illinois and Loyola Chicago both like to slow the game down. There is no reason this tempo should be quick at all. Neither of these team get many second chance points, and that is a clear help here.

The MVC is a league where points can be tough to come by, and with these two teams sharing a slow-paced style of play, I like the value on the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Coyotes host the San Jose Sharks here. Arizona is expected to have Raanti back in the goal after his backup Wedgewood started last time out. Raanti is significantly better than Wedgewood. Raanti has great numbers against the Sharks in his career. He is 2-1 with a 1.46 goals against average against the Sharks.

Aaron Dell is the expected starter in the goal for the Sharks. Dell has been the better goal for the Sharks so far this year. Dell has a save percentage of 92.4% on the season. 

Last time these two met was high scoring, but the 9 matchups before that all stayed under this total. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 between these two in Arizona.

The under is 64-41 in the Sharks last 105 road games vs. a division opponent when the total is 5.5 or higher. The under is 10-2 in the Coyotes last 12 vs. a division opponent with a total of 5.5 or higher.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights and Cincinnati Bearcats played twice last year. The two games played to 60-50 and 53-49 finals. It was no fluke. There were only 61 possessions in the first game and 60 in the second meeting. 

These are two teams who are much better on the defensive end than the offensive end. They are also both significantly better on defense this year than they were last season. Cincinnati was 15th in points per possession allowed on defense last year and they are third this year in the country. UCF was 18th last year and they are fourth this year. These teams are excellent defensively.

Taylor being out has really hurt the UCF offense. He's doubtful for this game and if he plays he likely will be limited minutes wise. 

While Cincinnati has played some of their games to a slightly quicker pace this year, when they play against teams who have a real chance to beat them (quality teams), the Bearcats slow things down. The tempo should stay slow here.

I don't like taking an under that is this low, but my number here is 115.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The LSU Tigers started the year by torching the nets against some bad defenses. LSU has still been good on offense for the year as a whole, but their numbers aren't nearly as gaudy as they were early in the season.

LSU is averaging 1.14 points per possession for the year, but in SEC play they are averaging just 1.00 points per possession. The Tigers defense has gotten better as the season has gone along. 

Georgia is first in the SEC in defensive efficiency at 0.928 points per possession inside SEC play. They rank 25th in the nation in points per possession allowed for the year as a whole. Georgia is using 19.9 seconds of the shot clock on average in SEC play, and the Bulldogs are averaging only 0.947 points per possession.

Georgia should slow the pace of this game, and LSU has played to the pace of their opponent of late. Without better than normal shooting numbers, this one should stay under solidly.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears finished as the slowest paced team in the Big 12 last year. There's a good chance they'll finish as the slowest paced team in the conference again this year. Baylor wants to slow the game down and win with their defense.

Oklahoma State has played quickly so far in Big 12 play, but they have played 3 of the 4 fastest paced teams in the Big 12 during this early conference season. Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Iowa State are going to be forcing the tempo all year. 

Oklahoma State is good at forcing turnovers, and this Baylor backcourt has been careless with the ball. Those turnovers lead to wasted possessions and time burned off the clock.

All five of Baylor's games in the Big 12 this year have stayed under this number in regulation. In fact, four of them have been 130 or lower.

This total is too high for a Baylor game. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Totals System CASH* The San Antonio Spurs have been a great under team on the road against subpar opponents. In their last 78 games on the road against a team with a win percentage of 33% or lower, the Spurs have gone 50-28 to the under. That's 64% under the total. They are 4-0 to the under in this system this year. They are 9-1 to the under in their last 10 that fit this system.

This is a day game on Martin Luther King Jr. Day. These games have done great for the under in recent years, and I think it makes sense considering this is an odd schedule spot. 

The Spurs offense is 28th in the NBA in efficiency on the road. Defensively, the Spurs have been at their best in recent weeks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Monday Early Totals CASH* The Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets meet early on Monday to tip off the NBA's MLK Day action. 

These early start times are good for the under on the weekend, and in the past they have been very good to under bettors on Martin Luther King Jr Day as well. It makes sense because players aren't accustomed to the early tip times, and that usually causes a slower tempo.

In their last 8 games- Charlotte is 19th in the NBA in tempo and Detroit is 24th. In that span, Detroit is sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Charlotte is eighth. Charlotte is 18th in offensive efficiency and Detroit is 25th during that span.

The under is at 61% in the last ten years in games that start at 4 pm EST or earlier between November and March where the home team is favored by 3 or more. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks host the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday afternoon at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks have really slowed their pace down of late. They rank second to last in the NBA in tempo in the past six games. New York also ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency during that period.

New Orleans has played quickly all year, but they have slowed down of late. The Pelicans are 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last six games. They are 14th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

Sunday day game unders have been a very profitable betting strategy in the long run. This one fits a system I like with the following filters:

-Sunday game that tips at 5 pm EST or earlier

-The home team has an average pace of 98 possessions per game or less on the year

-The game is played between October and March 

-The total is 191.5 or higher.

This one fits the system. I think this total is a few points too high considering the pace the Knicks are playing at.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks were an over machine for quite a while. The books had to start posting their totals extremely high, and now they have gone under the total four times in a row.

Milwaukee is a team that plays slowly. On the year, the Bucks are 24th in the NBA in tempo. In their last six games they are 27th. 

Miami has been the slowest paced team in the NBA over the past few weeks. It has worked great for them to play slowly and win with defense. The Heat are on a big run that has vaulted them up in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. Over their last ten games, the Heat are playing more than 1.5 possessions per game slower than any other team in the NBA.

Sunday day game unders have been a very profitable betting strategy in the long run. This one fits a system I like with the following filters:

-Sunday game that tips at 5 pm EST or earlier

-The home team has an average pace of 98 possessions per game or less on the year

-The game is played between October and March 

-The total is 191.5 or higher.

This one fits the system. The system is hitting 60.1% unders in the past 10 years.

Take the under.  

*3 Star NHL Total Domination* The Ducks and Kings battle Saturday night and this Under here gives us nice value to work with.

Both of these defenses are tops in the NHL.

Starting with Anaheim first, the Ducks rank 7th overall, allowing just 2.7 goals per game. They turn to John Gibson, who continues to make some big time plays this year in net for the Ducks. Gibson owns a SV% of .923 and has played well in this series against the Kings.

Jonathan Quick and the Kings rank first in overall defense, allowing just 2.4 goals per game. Quick leads the team with 19 wins and has been absolutely incredible this year. Quick owns just a 2.31 GAA and a SV% of .926.

Head to head wise, the Under is 17-6-4 in the last 27 meetings in Los Angeles. This matchup is always a grind it out kind of game, with both teams really working possession and struggling to get clean looks on net. Seven of the last nine games between these two have finished under this total.

Expect that same thing here.

Take Under.

*4 Star Play Over* The FIU Panthers have decided to speed up noticeably of late. FIU was a slow paced team the past couple years, but they have played six of their last nine games to a tempo of 72 possessions or quicker. I don't think the books have adjusted their numbers enough yet.

UTEP's defense has been downright awful of late. The Miners are allowing 1.113 points per possession in the conference. UTEP has allowed 75, 97, and 73 points to mediocre offenses in their last three games. 

I'll go with the over based on the recent trends of these two.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies are playing the Syracuse matchup zone that their coach learned under Jim Boeheim. It is doing a nice job limiting the shooting numbers of their opponents. 

Washington started the season playing very fast, but in recent games they are slowing the tempo a lot. This total doesn't reflect the new slower tempo of the Huskies. 

Stanford has been inconsistent on offense this year, and they tend to play to the pace of their opponent.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces are 348th in the nation out of 351 teams in tempo. Evansville is great at defending without fouling. They are using more than 20 seconds of the shot clock on average on their offensive possessions. 

Drake hasn't played a team in the MVC yet that slows things down the way Evansville does. Drake's relatively higher scoring numbers in the MVC have made this total too high considering who their opponent is in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles have Nick Foles at quarterback instead of Carson Wentz for this one, and that's clearly a big step down. The Atlanta Falcons offense hasn't been nearly as dominant this year as it was last season. They miss Kyle Shanahan as their offensive coordinator.

Atlanta has been an under machine of late. All six of their last six games have gone under. Five of them have been under this low total. The Falcons defense is one of the most improved in the NFL. 

The Eagles rank 8th in yards per play allowed this year. Their defensive front should get pressure on Matt Ryan who is playing behind a banged up offensive front.

The weather here could be a real problem. Winds are expected to be about 15 mph during the game with gusts of 25 mph. That changes the game and it certainly helps the under. Look for more conservative play calling and the defenses will load up the box more often.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference is one where there is a lot of good defense played. Bradley ranks 35th in defensive efficiency in the country, but only 242nd in offensive efficiency. 

Loyola Chicago is 77th in defensive efficiency, and they are 325th in overall pace of play as well. The Ramblers are very consistent at slowing the game down. 

I had this one lined at 124 and I see solid value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'll be surprised if Chris Beard lets his Red Raiders get into a track meet with West Virginia. Beard is an excellent coach, and Texas Tech and West Virginia played two games that went into OT last year and both were way under this total in regulation. 

Texas Tech is slowing the pace down on offense quite a bit more in Big 12 play than they were in non-conference action. West Virginia can struggle in halfcourt sets on offense. 

I expect a game where neither team gets many easy looks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans haven't played very well in their last couple games. They were blown away by Ohio State and then were fortunate to win in overtime against Rutgers. Expect Tom Izzo's bunch to play much better here. I think that means improved defensive intensity.

Michigan doesn't want any kind of fast paced basketball here. The Wolverines have done a nice job controlling tempo in the past, and they are much better on defense this year than they have been in recent years.

A rivalry game tends to lead to better defensive efforts on the whole.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders defense has been the best in Conference USA for the last few seasons. They should be the best again this year. MTSU is allowing only 0.877 points per possession inside the conference so far. 

Louisiana Tech no longer plays at a really quick pace like they did when current Florida coach Mike White was there. The Bulldogs could only score 61 points at MTSU last year in a 71-61 loss. Both of the teams are very similar to last year's teams, and I don't see a reason for this kind of adjustment on the total. 

MTSU likes to slow the game down and they have slightly less offensive weapons this year with Jacorey Williams and Reggie Upshaw having graduated at the end of last season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* UNC Wilmington is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the CAA. The Seahawks are also terrible on defense. Wilmington is allowing 1.143 points per possession for the season, which is 339th out of 351 teams in the country. They are allowing teams to shoot a whopping 45% from 3 point range.

Elon's offense has been excellent of late. The Phoenix shoot up a bunch of 3's, and they should get the open looks here. Elon has sped up their tempo since CAA play started up. Elon's defense is worse than a year ago, and UNC Wilmington should get up a bunch of shots here and score a solid amount of points.

The early move down on this total isn't justified.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Offense should be hard to come by in this Missouri Valley Conference showdown. Missouri State is 51st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Evansville is 80th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Missouri State is 97th in offensive efficiency. Evansville is 213th in offensive efficiency. 

Evansville really slows the pace of the game. They rank 339th in overall tempo. Missouri State isn't much faster at 317th. This one should be played to a pace of around 61 possessions. 

Both teams are better at not fouling than they are at getting to the line. 

In their last 7 games vs. a D 1 opponent, Evansville hasn't scored more than 68 points in any of those games. Missouri State hasn't scored more than 68 points in any of their last six games either. These teams are consistently low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats have almost always ended up playing at a slow tempo under Bruce Weber when things get tight. Early in the year, they sometimes run against lesser opponents, but in the Big 12 this has been a team that likes to force games into a half court contest. We're seeing signs of this already this season. 

Oklahoma State has played against a bunch of teams that push the tempo. I believe their numbers are a bit skewed toward the fast side thanks to games against teams like Oklahoma, UT Rio Grande Valley (7th in nation in pace), and West Virginia. The Cowboys are more efficient on defense than offense as well.

I think this total should be in the 144 or 145 area, so I see a significant amount of value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Washington Colonials have been great at forcing a slow tempo this year. Since December 1, George Washington has played one game that has gone over this total. That was last game against Rhode Island when the Rams torched the nets for 81 points in a 81-60 win at GW. 

Davidson is playing at a slower tempo this year. They rank 250th in tempo. They were in the top 100 in pace just two years ago. George Washington ranks 347th out of 351 in the nation in tempo. 

Neither of these teams get to the line much at all, and neither team fouls very much. That's a big bonus in addition to the slow tempo. Barring some very high shooting numbers from long range, this one should stay under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Dallas Mavericks offense has been tremendous in recent games. Dallas ranks second in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last five games. They are second to only the Golden State Warriors. 

Dallas also ranks 6th in the NBA in tempo in the last five games. The Mavericks had previously been playing at a much slower tempo. Along with their strong offense, Dallas ranks 28th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games.

Orlando has been pushing the pace all year, and they have been terrible on defense all season as well. The Magic are 26th in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year. They are sixth in tempo. 

I don't see much quality defense being played here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TAKEDOWN* The Toronto Raptors host the Miami Heat tonight. Kyle Lowry is out of the lineup for the Raptors. Lowry is definitely a key guy in the offense, and I expect them to slow things down a bit without him playing.

Miami is playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last ten games. The Heat have shot blocking big man Hassan Whiteside back in the lineup, and that makes their defense much better.

The three referees in this game are some of the best under refs you'll find in the NBA. They have career under percentages of 54.8% unders, 54.6% unders, and 52.9% unders. That's definitely a nice boost to the under here.

The under is 60-29-1 in the Heat's last 90 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

The sharp money likes the under here. Only 28% of bets are on the under, but 69% of the money is on the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NHL Total Domination* The Capitals and Canucks are in a nice Over spot on Tuesday night. There is a lot of value in many different angles here that play well to the Over.

Head to head wise, this has been an Over series as of late. The Over is 3-1-2 in the last 6 meetings in Washington and is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings.

This is also a case where the Capitals can really use their offensive firepower and expect to score in bunches. The Canucks have allowed 5 goals or more in 7 of their last 12 games. This team is completely a mess on the defensive end and rank near the bottom in the NHL with 3.26 goals against.

While we know what we should see from the Washington offense, the Canucks have stepped things up offensively when playing on the road. Vancouver is averaging 2.85 goals per game and if they can come anywhere near that mark, this one should turn into a shootout.

Given the trends here and the offensive styles of both teams, this one should see plenty of scoring chances both ways.

Take Over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles rank 293rd in the nation in overall tempo. They set up a zone and slow the game down. Eastern Michigan has been reliant on getting to the line on the offensive end in many years of late. They aren't very good in half court sets. Central Michigan ranks in the top ten in least fouls committed so far this year. 

Central Michigan is 259th in overall tempo this year. The Chippewas were 5th last year. They have obviously undergone a significant tempo change this season. I don't expect to see them force the pace as they did last year against Eastern Michigan. 

This is definitely a rivalry game and on the whole I believe that helps the under as the defenses stay fully engaged most of the times in these matchups.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats are without their star big man in Jason Carter. They have very little inside presence. Jordan Dartis who averages 13.3 points per game, is questionable in this one. Dartis has a hip injury.

Ball State is also without two players. Jontrell Walker is suspended after being arrested recently. Walker averaged 8 points per game. Zach Gunn is out with an injury and he averages 5.5 points per game. 

Ball State has slowed their tempo down noticeably in the last few games. They are clearly playing slower than last year. Ohio plays a little quicker, but they are far less efficient on offense. 

Neither team is good at getting to the line and both teams don't foul much at all. The injuries here combined with Ball State's slow it down style of late makes me think this one stays below 150.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs played in a really high scoring game against Oklahoma, but I don't think we'll see anything like that in the title game.

Georgia plays at the 127th ranked tempo out of 130 teams. Alabama's tempo is 95th out of 130. Georgia is playing at an extremely slow pace, and Alabama prefers to play slowly as well.

Georgia runs the ball on 71% of their plays from scrimmage for the season. Alabama runs it on 66% of their plays from scrimmage. Two teams pounding the ball and using the clock is ideal for an under as long as you have defenses that can stop the run.

Adjusted for strength of schedule played- Alabama's run defense ranks first in the country in run defense. Georgia ranks ninth. 

These two secondaries are both excellent as well, and neither of these passing games are particularly dynamic especially when it comes to creating big plays.

This should be a hard hitting contest where the under holds value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes and Florida State Seminoles are both excellent on the defensive end. Miami is 6th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. The Hurricanes are third in effective field goal percentage defense. Florida State is 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 10th in effective field goal percentage defense.

Miami is playing faster than they were last year, but I still don't see them wanting to have a track meet here. Only four of their games so far this year have been played to a pace of higher than 70 possessions. Their two games against Florida State last year played to a 62 and 57 pace.

Both of these offenses have been inconsistent this year, and they are up against one of the best defenses they have faced yet. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* William & Mary has played 14 games this year. Of those games, 12 of the 14 have gone over this total. The Tribe are first in the nation in 3 point shooting percentage at a whopping 43.9%. The Tribe are fifth in the nation in effective field goal percentage. 

William & Mary has been great on offense in the last few years, but their defense has continued to be a problem. It is again this year. They are allowing 1.116 points per possession (318th in the country). 

Drexel wants to run under Coach Zach Spiker. The Dragons have picked up the tempo in CAA play so far. They are third in tempo in CAA action. William & Mary is first. This game should be played at a quick pace.

Drexel is allowing an eye popping 1.233 points per possession in their three CAA games this year. The Dragons allowd 108 points to William & Mary in one of the meetings last year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Miami Heat and Utah Jazz meet on Sunday afternoon in Miami. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games against one another. Earlier this year, they played to a 84-74 game. Six of their last seven meetings have finished at 195 points or less.

Miami is much better defensively now that they have Whiteside back in the middle. The Jazz defense isn't as good without Gobert, but they are still better than league average there. 

Miami ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA in the past eight games. The Jazz rank as the fifth slowest in tempo during that time. Utah also ranks dead last in offensive efficiency. 

Sunday day unders have been a strong angle in recent years- and when you have a home team playing at 97.8 possessions or fewer on the season and the game is played at 5 pm EST or earlier on a Sunday the under is hitting 61% in the last nine years. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Niagara Purple Eagles rank 13th in the nation in least time spent per offensive possession. They are shooting it on average after only 14.8 seconds of their possession. This team is flying up and down the floor. Niagara also ranks 98th out of 351 in offensive efficiency. What about defense? They are terrible. They rank 330th out of 351. Niagara is definitely a team that can make games very high scoring.

Marist is shooting it about one full second on average quicker than last year. Marist is 323rd in defensive efficiency, so we have two teams that prefer to play fast here and two teams who are terrible on the defensive end.

A big bonus is the trips to the charity stripe. Marist is 40th out of 351 in the nation in FT per field goal attempted. Niagara is 52nd in the nation in FT/FGA. There should be plenty of free throws here.

I had this number quite a bit higher than this.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights are an elite defense. They ranked 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 7th so far this season. Temple was 168th in that statistic last year, and they are 117th so far this year.

UCF is expected to be without point guard BJ Taylor again for this one. Taylor is the best scorer on the team. Chance McSpadden is doubtful and he has averaged 6 pts per game this year as well. UCF relies on getting to the line to score, and Temple is good at defending without fouling.

Temple and UCF are both happy to play at a slow tempo. Temple is 268th in overall tempo out of 351 in the country. UCF is 291st. 

This is an early start on a Sunday as well which is a positive for the under in the long run according to the numbers. I think this one stays in the 120's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils are easily first in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are averaging a whopping 1.256 points per possession on offense this season. Duke is playing from inside out this year, and NC State doesn't have the defensive presence in the inside to slow down the Duke frontcourt.

Duke's average possession length is 16th quickest in the country. NC State is 25th in that same statistic. These two teams are both flying up and down the floor.

Both of these teams rank in the top 12 in the country in offensive rebounding. 

Look for a very high scoring game here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas have changed the way they play this year. Central Michigan ranked 7th in average possession length out of 351 teams last year. They were pushing the pace like crazy. This year they rank 297th out of 351 teams. They have slowed things down dramatically. It's hard for the oddsmakers to make numbers on this team's games.

Kent State has been a team that plays to the pace of their opponent since Rob Senderoff has been there. This is a team that sometimes plays really quick, and sometimes is forced into a low possessions game. They very rarely dictate the pace.

With the tempo I expect in this game, it would take some very high shooting percentages to go over this number. 

Kent State relies on free throws for a lot of their offensive production and Central Michigan is top five in the nation at not fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wofford has an offense that should shred up the Southern Conference. Wofford just shoots the ball so well. Fletcher Magee is shooting 53.4% from 3 point range on the season and he has taken 104 shots from 3 point range. 

The Citadel will probably finish first or second in the nation in overall tempo this year. As high as this number is, Citadel has gone over it in 11 of their 14 games so far this year. Their defense is among the bottom 20 in the nation. 

Wofford and Citadel have played 4 times in the last couple years. The lowest final total was 169 points. The other 3 games all finished at 188 points or higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins are going to push the pace all year long. UCLA is 22nd in the nation in average possession length. They are only using half the shot clock on average to put up a shot. UCLA ranks in the top 50 at getting to the line. 

Cal prefers to play fast too, and their defense has been really poor this year. Cal has been giving up a lot of second chance points. Cal ranks 7th in the nation FT attempts per field goal attempted. Expect lots of free throws in this game.

This one should get to 160 or higher.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs started the season by dominating on offense through being more aggressive with play calling. Kansas City has a ton of skill position weapons, and they were utilizing them well. They got cautious again in the middle of the season, and they slumped. Late in the season, they changed play callers and things improved again. I expect some more aggressive play calling here.

The Titans secondary has been a major weakness down the stretch. I expect Kansas City to be able to get some big plays through the air. Kansas City is second in the NFL in yards per play this year. 

The Kansas City defense isn't good. Eric Berry is a huge loss for this defense, and the Chiefs allowed 5.6 yards per play on the year, which was 26th in the NFL.

Marcus Mariota does have some weapons on the outside and if they get behind which they likely will here, look for some more aggressive play calling from the Titans as well.

Both defenses have been vulnerable to big plays, and this total is set at a low number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Valparaiso Crusaders really miss Alec Peters. Peters was their go to guy the last few years, and their offense is struggling without him. Valpo was 139th in offensive efficiency last year. They are 247th so far this year.

Southern Illinois has consistently been a MVC team who slows the pace down. The Salukis are 284th in average possession length so far this year. They also rank 57th in effective field goal percentage defense.

Both of these teams have been wasting a lot of possessions with turnovers of late.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Fordham is 284th in overall tempo this year. Duquesne is 304th in tempo. This should be a very slow paced game. Keith Dambrot has the Dukes playing a much slower pace this year in his first year at the school. The oddsmakers are trying to react to that change, but they aren't quite there yet. 

Both of these teams have very poor jump shooting numbers on the year. The combination of a slow tempo and two poor offenses is great for the under here.

My number here was 127. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina Tar Heels have had a lot of trouble forcing the pace against Virginia. North Carolina has never gotten a matchup against Virginia to a higher tempo than 67 possessions dating back to 2014.

Last year, the two meetings between these two were played at 61 possessions and 55 possessions. Virginia is tremendous at making you play their game. This game is at Virginia, and that helps here.

While North Carolina is playing fast again this year, they are 100th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They rely on second chance points, and Virginia is great on the defensive glass. 

Virginia is only 34th in the nation in offensive efficiency, but they are easily first in defensive efficiency. I see them dictating a lower scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide are similar in that they are both significantly better on defense than offense. 

Georgia is 186th in effective field goal percentage offense, but they are a very impressive 16th in effective field goal percentage defense.  Alabama is 94th on offense in this stat and 47th on defense.

Georgia is playing quite a bit slower this year. The Bulldogs are 267th in overall tempo in the country. Georgia has only had 2 of their 13 games go over this number in regulation this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA on ESPN CASH* The Washington Wizards are healthy once again, and their offense has taken off since they got everyone back in the fold. Washington has scored 111 points or more in five of their last six games. The Wizards have scored 121 or more in three of those contests.

Memphis isn't playing as slow as they did earlier this year. They rank 19th in the NBA in tempo in the last six games. The Grizzlies have gotten some very good offensive production out of Tyreke Evans. Memphis ranks 5th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 1.146 points per possession in their last six games. What about Washington? The Wizards are third in that same stat, averaging an impressive 1.164 points per possession. 

Both of these teams have been big under teams for the season as a whole, which gives us line value here. Now that they have changed their stripes, I'll look to go over the total with them in spots.

I think this number is too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes are playing nearly six possessions quicker so far this year vs. a year ago. James Madison also ranked 196th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 318th in that same statistic so far this year. 

James Madison has played six of their last seven games to a pace of 72 possessions or quicker. If this game is played at that tempo, the over has an excellent chance of cashing. Hofstra has ranked in the top 65 in the country in the last three years in offensive efficiency. So far this year they are 86th, but I think they will improve on offense in league play.

Hofstra's defense is very weak. The Pride prefer to outscore teams in high scoring games, and they should push the pace here once again. Hofstra has only had 5 games stay under this total so far this year. They have had eight games finish at 161 points or higher, so Hofstra is often involved in very high scoring games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Towson Tigers made it clear in the preseason they wanted to play faster this year. Coach Pat Skerry said he wanted his team to have chances in transition. Towson hasn't played much quicker this year, but it is at least partially because of who they have played against. The Tigers have faced a bunch of very slow paced teams. That changes here.

UNC Wilmington ranks 11th in the nation in tempo. That is the fastest paced team Towson has played this year. In their game against Oakland (15th in tempo in the country), Towson lost 97-86 and the pace was a blistering 80 possessions.

Wilmington's defense ranks 322nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Towson should get to the line a bunch against them as well since they foul at a very high rate. Both teams are good at getting second chance points.

Take the over. 

 *3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have decided to play stall ball in their last two games. It has worked really well. I expect to see it again here. In their last two games, Utah is using a remarkable 23.6 seconds of the 30 second shot clock to shoot the ball on average. Their win at Oregon saw a mind boggling low pace of just 55 possessions. They followed that up with a low 60 possession game against Oregon State.

Arizona has more talent than Utah, and Utah isn't going to want to get into a high scoring game against the Wildcats here. Arizona is a team that often plays to the pace of their opponent. If Utah is slowing things down even close to the rate they have been in recent games, it will be very hard to get a game above a total in the mid 140's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* South Alabama likes to push the pace, but they are terrible on offensive when it comes to efficiency. South Alabama ranks among the 50 worst teams in the country in turnovers as a percentage of their offensive possessions. They are 313th out of 351 in offensive efficiency overall.

South Alabama's defense ranks 88th best in the nation in defensive efficiency. This team has been getting after it on defense.

Texas State is 267th in offensive efficiency. The Bobcats also rank 345th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. This is a team that does a tremendous job slowing the game down.

South Alabama has had 7 of their 14 games go under this total despite playing quickly. Texas State has seen 8 go under this number and 1 push of their 15 games. 

Good line value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION* The Golden Knights and Blues will play in a real grind it out kind of game here on Thursday night.

Both of these teams are very lockdown and as of late things have been completely shut down because of their back lines. Both the Golden Knights and Blues do not allow anything easy on the defensive end and given the goalie play here, the Under is a nice move.

Marc-Andre Fleury owns just a 1.77 GAA and since returning has been on a tear. For the Blues, Carter Hutton has been one of the best backups in the NHL. He owns a 7-3 record and has not allowed more than 3 goals in any of his starts.

Since Jaden Schwartz has gone down for St. Louis, things have also been a struggle for them. They have gone over the total just one time since he went down.

Look for a very physical and tough game both ways.

Take Under.

*4 Star Play Over* The Fort Wayne Mastodons have been great at forcing the tempo the last couple years. Fort Wayne has played 17 games this year and stunningly they haven't played a single game below a tempo of 70 possessions. Of their 17 games this year, 15 of them have gone over this total.

Oral Roberts has played quick with teams like Arkansas, Nebraska Omaha, and UNLV already this year. I don't think they'll be able to slow the game down very much here either. Oral Roberts has played 7 of their 16 games over this number. ORU ranks 288th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense.

Fort Wayne is 19th in the country in overall tempo, and they have torched the nets in Summit League play the last couple years. They should be able to do it again this year. This number is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors play a completely different style than they did a year ago. Last year, Austin Peay was playing quickly and had one of the worst defenses in the country. They brought in a new coach, Matt Figgers, who has this team playing aggressive defense and forcing loads of turnovers.

Tennessee Martin plays a unique zone defense that is typically a 3-2 zone, and zones have given Austin Peay serious problems so far this year. Austin Peay is scoring 0.78 points per possession against zone defenses on the season. 

Tennessee Martin ranks 332nd out of 351 teams in the country in tempo. I'm counting on them to slow the pace of the game with their zone.

Both teams rank among the 60 worst teams in the country at taking care of the basketball. A lot of turnovers in the halfcourt means a lot of wasted possessions. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Lakers are expected to get Brook Lopez back tonight. Lopez is averaging 12.8 points per game on the year. Kyle Kuzma is probable as well, and beat writers have reported the coaching staff says he will be available to play.

Andre Roberson is out for Oklahoma City in this one. That's key because Roberson is one of the best defenders in the NBA. Roberson is also a major liability on offense. Without him, the Thunder are better on offense and much weaker on defense. Roberson has missed three games due to injury this year, and the Thunder have allowed 116 points in two of the three games.

The Lakers are allowing 1.174 points per possession in their last three games. That is second worst in the NBA during that stretch. OKC is allowing 1.122 points per possession, which is 22nd.

The Thunder offense has been much better in recent games. They struggled much of the year on this end, but OKC is second in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games.

In Eric Lewis and Zach Zarba, two of the three officials in this game are big over refs. The over is 368-336 in Zarba's games. The over is 355-317 in the games Lewis has been a referee.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves were 5-27 two years ago. They are 11-4 so far this year. Brian Wardle is doing a tremendous job turning this team around. It all starts with defense. Bradley ranks 24th in the country in defensive efficiency, and they are 18th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Valparaiso enters a much tougher league this year as they jump from the Horizon League to the MVC. The Crusaders are struggling as well because Tevonn Walker still isn't 100% from having Mono for several weeks. 

Valpo's offense ranks 253rd in offensive efficiency. Bradley ranks 239th in that category. This look like a good old fashioned Missouri Valley Conference defensive duel. I don't think either team will find many open looks here.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The South Florida Bulls and East Carolina Pirates get together in a game that should be really ugly. South Florida ranks 341st in the nation in overall tempo. They are the home team here and they should be able to control the tempo here. 

South Florida is 320th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Bulls have serious turnover problems, and they can't shoot it. Combine that with their slow tempo and you get a team that can put up some really low numbers. 

East Carolina is even worse on offense. The Pirates rank 344th in offensive efficiency out of 351 teams in the country. Like USF, they are in the bottom 50 in the country in turnover percentage on offensive possessions. They have scored 53 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games.

Both teams rank in the top 75 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. The defenses should have a big edge here. 

This line is 8 points too high in my opinion. 

Take the under for a top rated play. 

*4 Star Play Under* Duquesne has been very consistent at playing at a slow pace this year. The Dukes have seen 7 of their 14 games finish with 132 points total or less. 

George Washington ranks 347th out of 351 in the country in overall tempo. This team has played 12 straight games that have finished at 139 points or lower. This total is lower than that, but it shows the consistency of George Washington in keeping the game low scoring. In this contest, they'll face another opponent who wants to walk it up.

Duquesne is 300th in overall tempo this year. The Dukes have played the weakest schedule in the country so far this year, so while their offensive numbers are decent, I'm not convinced they will stay that way.

This projects as a game that finishes around 60 possessions, and that makes me project a game in the mid 120's. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores scored 54 points in the second half of their loss to Florida this past Saturday, but this is a team that has struggled to shoot the ball much of the year. 

Vanderbilt ranks 320th in the nation in average length of possession on offense. That is an extremely slow pace of play. To see a total this high with a team that plays that slowly is a rarity. 

Alabama ranks 63rd in the country in overall tempo, but the Crimson Tide are quite a bit better on defense than they are on offense. Alabama ranks 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

I see this one playing out to a tempo of about 68 possessions, and at that pace it takes some very high shooting percentages to get over this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas have completely changed the way they play this year. Central Michigan ranked 5th in the nation in overall tempo last year. Where are they so far this year? The Chippewas rank 295th out of 351 in tempo this year. 

Coach Davis knows he doesn't have the same kind of offensive firepower this year, and he wants his team to take care of the basketball and play defense to win lower scoring games. It has worked thus far. Central Michigan has played 8 of their 10 Division One opponent games to a total of 147 or less. 

Ohio plays pretty quickly, but I think the Bobcats will be better on defense than offense in conference play this year. Ohio tends to put up a lot of shots from long range, and the strength of Central Michigan's defense is defending the three.

I think this number is too high based on the large change from Central Michigan from last year to this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia 76ers do play quickly, but because their offense isn't efficient and their defense is very good, they still rarely have extremely high scoring games.

In the last six games, the 76ers are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are also 28th in offensive efficiency. 

Phoenix ranks 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last six games. The Suns clearly aren't playing at the ultra quick tempo they did earlier this year. Phoenix is 25th in offensive efficiency in the last six games in the NBA, and they are a solid 10th in defensive efficiency.

This high of a number is usually reserved for elite offenses or the worst defenses in the NBA. These teams don't fit that bill.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins are playing at the 15th quickest pace of any team in the country (average possession length). UCLA is going to push the tempo regardless of what kind of defense you play. Washington is 66th in that same category (out of 351 teams) so they are looking to push the pace too. 

UCLA has multiple shooters that should be able to shoot over the Washington zone. The Bruins will also get plenty of second chance opportunities against the zone.

Washington and UCLA are both getting to the line at a very high rate. There should be a lot of trips to the charity stripe in this one. 

I had this one at 165 points, and I'll take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City and Dallas Mavericks have both shot the ball extremely well in recent games. They should regress soon. Dallas set a franchise record with 22 made 3 pointers in their last game (22/39 from long range). They aren't likely to do that again. 

What about the pace here? In the past ten games, Oklahoma City ranks dead last in the NBA in tempo. Dallas ranks 27th out of 30. This game should be played at an extremely slow pace. 

This is a New Year's Eve game, and these holiday games have trended under in the long run pretty heavily. The tendency of players to want to be done and play through a quicker game with lower scoring second halves makes a lot of sense to me.

Marc Davis is one of the referees in this one and the under has hit in 54% of his games in his career.

The under is 29-14-2 in the Mavs last 45 after scoring 100 or more last game. The under is 9-4 in OKC's last 13 home games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both Valparaiso and Missouri State are defensive-minded teams. Though Valpo has picked up their pace some on offense, they aren't efficient on that end of the floor.

Valpo ranks 225th in offensive efficiency. The Crusaders are turning the ball over way too much. Tevonn Walker is back after a long absence, but he is less than 100 percent after dealing with mono for the last few weeks. He is their main man on offense.

Missouri State ranks 309th in overall tempo out of 351 teams in the country. The Bears definitely want to move slowly, and they'll try to control the pace here. 

Valpo is 55th in effective field goal percentage defense and Missouri State is 17th. These are two excellent defenses.

I look for a very hotly contested league game where the total stays under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats excel at slowing the game down. They are able to force their style of play onto almost every opponent. A good example of this is their last game against Appalachian State. Appalachian State runs and hadn't played a game to a pace slower than 69 possessions all year. Texas State held that game down to 63 possessions against Appalachian State.

Last year, Texas State and Coastal Carolina met twice. Those games finished with 102 and 113 points. In both games, the pace was slow.

Coastal Carolina ranks 267th in average possession length, so they like to play slowly too. Texas State's possession length average is 342nd out of 351 teams in the country.

Both of these teams have trouble taking care of the basketball. A bunch of wasted trips usually leads to lower scoring games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The New York Giants host the Washington Redskins in a game where both teams fell far short of expectations for the season. There are no playoff implications here.

When you look back in the last ten years, teams who are not going to be part of the playoffs meeting in week 17 has been slightly positive for the under.

The weather here should play a major role. The temperature is expected to be about 15 degrees during this game. The sustained winds will be at 12-14 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. It's going to be a nasty day, and that should make the two offenses more predictable.

The important part here is if the two teams have to run, neither of them are any good at it. I expect a bunch of punts in this one. 

Both offensive lines are badly banged up, and neither quarterback has any of their star receivers left.

The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'm not a fan of taking an over on a number this high very often, but here I have to do it. 

Rider and Niagara are pushing the pace to an extreme level this year. While an average game plays to about 69 possessions in college basketball, I think there is a good chance this one plays to a pace of 80 possessions. That's a bunch of extra shot attempts for each team.

Niagara is 324th in defensive efficiency. They haven't been able to stop anyone all year. Rider is 202nd in defensive efficiency. 

Rider is 104th in offensive efficiency and Niagara is 91st. Both offenses are much improved from last year. Rider averaged 1.009 points per possession last year. This year they are averaging 1.071 per possession. Niagara averaged only 1.014 last year and they are up to 1.084 this year.

This should be an all out track meet. The two teams are 16th and 57th in free throws per field goal attempt too, so plenty of free throws should be expected.

Take the over.