*4 Star Play Over* Anytime you see a low total in a Big Sky Conference game you have to take a look at the over. After closer inspection, I will be playing the over here.

These two teams have gone over this total the last three times they have played each other. The lowest score in those games was 139 points. 

Northern Arizona is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. Idaho isn't much better on that end. 

Each of the last three games between these teams has played to 69 possessions or more. Games with less than 1 point per possession are very rare in the Big Sky where nearly no one plays any defense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams met on December 22nd and the final was 68-58 East Carolina. There were no large abnormalities as far as shooting percentages in that game.

Both of these teams are inefficient on the offensive end. Both of them scored between 0.93 and 0.94 points per possession in the conference last year. I expect similar numbers again this year.

Tulane's zone defense slows the game down. Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot and that should lead to a lot of empty possessions here. Some teams can take advantage of Tulane on the offensive glass, but East Carolina isn't a good offensive rebounding team.

At 67 possessions projected here and 0.96 and 0.95 points per possession we get a score projection of about 64-63.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Golden Grizzlies didn't play as fast in the non-conference slate as they typically do. Oakland has picked up their pace quite a bit of late though, and in the Horizon League I expect this Oakland team to move quickly.

Oakland has scored 72 points or more in six straight contests. They finally get a home game here, and they should be able to score quite a few here.

The Wright State Raiders are using only 14.8 seconds on an average offensive possession in their four games in the Horizon League thus far. Wright State wants to push the pace, and Oakland's very weak defense isn't likely to be able to slow them down. 

The two meetings between these teams last year finished at 165 and 154 points. Look for another high scoring game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas State has been a very good defensive team for the last several seasons. They like to slow the pace down. 

Louisiana has been a poor defensive team in recent seasons, and they love to speed the pace of game up in a big way.

It is always a pace war when these two teams meet. How have the games gone? The last six games between these two teams have finished at 137 points or lower.

Louisiana has the best defense they have had in many years. Theo Akwuba is a shot blocking a machine in the paint. Texas State is a team that doesn't shoot many 3's, and I think Akwuba's presence in the paint is going to make things difficult on Texas State.

Texas State has played 8 games this year, and none of them have finished higher than 138 points. 

With an improved Louisiana defense and two offenses that are weaker than in recent years, I'm taking the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are a completely different team than they were a year ago. New Orleans ran and played very little defense under Alvin Gentry. They are clearly improved on defense this year. They also rank dead last in tempo so far this year in the entire league. New Orelans has been a great under team so far this year, and I'm going to ride with the under another time here.

Oklahoma City hasn't played teams who play as slowly as the Pelicans so far this year. The Thunder have good defensive pieces on their roster. I would expect their offensive efficiency to be down a tick from a year ago.

There is a favorable referee crew for the under in this one as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies have developed an identity of being very tough on defense under Coach Hurley. This team doesn't let the opposition into the lane easily, and when they do get in the lane the opposition has a lot of height to go against in the UConn frontcourt.

The DePaul Blue Demons are better on defense than offense. This is a team that likes to play fast, but they turn the ball over a lot. That should be a problem against UConn. DePaul doesn't have many good outside shooters, and UConn's length inside should bother them.

UConn's offense is very inconsistent. They don't have many shooters and they rely heavily on offensive rebounding to score. 

UConn kept USC and even Creighton to very low scoring games. I think this game is totaled too high based on DePaul scoring a lot on weaker defenses in their first two games.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The VMI Keydets play at an above average pace. They have proven over the last couple years that they are happy to play at a very fast pace when their opponent pushes the issue. 

Samford ranks 8th in the country in average possession length. This team is absolutely flying this season. Bucky McMillan spoke in the postseason about how fast he wanted the team to play, and they are doing just that. 

Last year, VMI and Samford played three times. Those games had 73, 77, and 77 possessions. The final totals in those games were 153, 162, and 174 points. 

Samford is playing faster than they did a year ago. Samford is fouling at an extremely high rate because they are using full court pressure. VMI is shooting better than 80% from the free throw line so far this year. 

I think this game plays to a pace of 77 or 78 possessions. That would require poor shooting to not get over the total.

I think both teams score a lot here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I think this total is very inflated. USC Upstate played Winthrop twice earlier this year, and Winthrop ranks first in the nation in tempo and they are the best offense in the Big South. Winthrop put up huge numbers against them, but no one else in the Big South can match Winthrop in that regard. 

High Point has played in several pretty high scoring games this year, but Tubby Smith clearly prefers a slower pace. High Point is likely to slow things down and get back to their defensive roots in conference play.

Last year, these two teams met three times. The final scores in those games were 70-62 (132), 62-54 (116), and 69-59 (128). None of these games even sniffed this posted total. While both teams may be a bit better on offense this year, there is no way a reasonable adjustment would be all the way to 150.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are a different team this year. New Orleans isn't playing as fast as possible as they did under Alvin Gentry. Stan Van Gundy has this team playing in the bottom ten in the NBA in pace of play. They have been much better on defense too, and that isn't a surprise since Van Gundy considers himself a defensive guy.

The Phoenix Suns are likely to play a little slower this year as well. At this stage of his career Chris Paul isn't a guy who tends to run the floor as fast as many of the point guards in the NBA. Expect Phoenix to slip some this year in terms of tempo, but they should improve on defense. They certainly have so far this year.

I think this line is off based on what these teams were last year compared to now.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Houston's defense is among the very best defenses in the country. Kelvin Sampson has really made the main theme of this Houston basketball program to be taking care of the basketball and winning with defense and toughness. Houston is playing even slower than they have the last two seasons this year, and they still rank sixth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Tulsa is a top 50 defense or so on an annual basis. Frank Haith's teams often struggle on the offensive end though. They'll likely mix in some zone and keep things at a slow pace here against Houston.

Last year's meetings between these two finished at 124 points and 119 points. I expect something similar here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Binghamton has seen one of their games go over this total in regulation this year and that was 144 points. Yesterday's game between these two finished at 141 points and that was with both teams shooting the ball well from long range and there was also a little fouling at the end of the contest.

I had this one projected at 137.5 so I have some room to the under. This is also an early start which in general has been helpful to the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are clearly a different team with Stan Van Gundy as their head coach as compared to Alvin Gentry. Van Gundy is more of a defensive-minded coach who isn't going to encourage running nearly as much as Gentry.

New Orleans ranked fourth in the NBA in tempo last year. They rank 24th through two games. It is a small sample size, but the Pelicans are averaging more than 3 possessions less per game than last year thus far.  I would expect New Orleans to improve defensively as well, and in their first two games they have done that.

The Spurs and Pelicans played high scoring games last year and that has led to a high total here. I think it is too high with the Pelicans being a different team.

The Spurs will likely finish in the middle of the pack in tempo again this year.  San Antonio's first two games being elevated from a totals perspective has given us a good number to go under here.

Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the NBA in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Jaguars defense is arguably the worst in the NFL. Chicago has really found something offensively of late. Trubisky is playing much better and Montgomery has been great out of the backfield both running the football and catching it out of the backfield. I don't see Jacksonville slowing this offense down. 

The Bears defense isn't what they were last year or even earlier this year. Chicago is banged up on the defensive side, and they have been giving up a lot more big plays.

Jerome Boger's crew is doing this game, and the over has hit a whopping 60% of the time in Boger's crews games in a sample size of nearly 200 games. Expect a lot of flags on the defense here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Hartford Hawks and New Hampshire Wildcats have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. The last six meetings between these two have totaled the following amount of points: 121, 131, 113, 120, 113, and 130 (in overtime). All six of these games have stayed under this total by more than one possession. 

Hartford consistently slows the pace of the game down. New Hampshire's tempo looks quick on the season, but that is skewed because they played a Bryant team that is playing faster than anyone else in the country. 

Neither of these teams are good shooting the basketball. I think this total is set several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are unbeaten and they should be plenty motivated to try to keep that perfect record. Liberty has only one loss on the year. Both of these teams are really well coached, and both teams know what their strengths are on offense.

Both of these teams run the ball on about 65% of their offensive plays. They also play at a very slow pace. Liberty is 97th in the nation in pace of play. Coastal Carolina is 119th in the nation in pace of play. We should see a lot of running the football and moving clock in this one. 

This is a high total for two teams who are conservative on offense and play at a slow tempo. I also expect both teams to be plenty motivated and that should help. I never want to take an under in bowl season in a game where I question the motivation of the teams. 

Whichever team gets the lead here will try to run the ball consistently and slow the game down in a big way in the second half.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Draymond Green missed the Warriors first game and he is questionable here. Stephen Curry is excellent, but he isn't surrounded by many "scorers" or distributors on this Warriors team. They badly miss Klay Thompson. 

The Bucks were the best defense in the NBA last season. They do play fast, but they are good at locking teams down on defense.

Christmas Day unders have been tremendous in the past decade. This makes a lot of sense to me because the players are celebrating either right before or right after the game with their families. I think the Christmas under trend is a solid one.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank fourth in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Buffalo wants to run the football early and often. The Bulls are first in the nation in yards per carry, but they played some extremely weak run defenses in the MAC. Buffalo will still get their yards here, but they should be tougher to come by.

Marshall's offense has been exposed in a big way in their last couple games. The Thundering Herd scored 13 points in their last two games combined. Both Rice and UAB made this Marshall offense look very bad. Grant Wells put up some big numbers against really bad defenses early in the season. 

Both of these teams play slowly and they run the ball at a very high rate. There should be a lot of moving clock and slow long drives. Both defenses do a good job not giving up explosive plays.

Look for a lower scoring game here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Last year these two teams met twice and the final scores were 214 and 203. The Heat are a good defensive team, and they typically have not let the Pelicans get into their normal extremely fast paced type of game.

Christmas Day unders have been tremendous in the past decade. This makes a lot of sense to me because the players are celebrating either right before or right after the game with their families. I think the Christmas under trend is a solid one.

This total is set several points too high. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos beat the New Mexico Lobos 77-53 on Monday. I had the under in that one, and I will be on the under again here. 

Boise State's defense is much improved this year. The Broncos are going to be a tough team in the Mountain West this year. Boise State is 33rd in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. They have done a solid job against both BYU and Houston in big games earlier this year.

New Mexico is going to struggle to score this year. The Lobos lost their top few options offensively, and this is a team that really relies on second chance points. Boise State is an excellent defensive rebounding team and that makes them a tough matchup for this limited New Mexico offense.

New Mexico has slowed their pace down and I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks will look like a different team under Tom Thibodeau. Does that mean they will be better? Not necessarily, but Thibodeau is trying his best to turn this into a defensive-minded team. He also wants this team to play at a slow pace to start the season out. The Knicks played very slow in the preseason and had three of their four games in the preseason finish at 193 points or lower. 

Indiana is a strong defensive team. They will be one of the best in the Eastern Conference on that end again this year. The Pacers also prefer to play slowly. 

Last year, these two teams met three times. The final total in those games was 207, 177, and 204 points. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one is played on a neutral floor in Las Vegas. Grand Canyon is working hard to slow the pace down this year. Bryce Drew's team is excellent on the defensive glass, and they defend well without fouling. 

Colorado just shot the ball really well last game against Washington, but Tad Boyle's team has a history of being inconsistent on the offensive end. The Buffaloes are very good on defense. They mix up their defenses and I think that will bother the Grand Canyon offense which doesn't have all that many great scoring options.

Early neutral site games have been great under bets in the long run, and I see some value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wagner Seahawks rank 313th in offensive possession length (how many seconds per possession). Wagner has consistently worked hard to slow teams down this year. They were even able to slow a game down against Bryant (who ranks first in the nation in tempo so far this year. 

Sacred Heart has a young team, and it appears Coach Anthony Latina has decided to slow down the tempo for his youngsters. They are 261st in the nation in average possession length so far this year. 

These two teams just played on Monday and the final was 74-46. Wagner was 11/22 from 3 point range and Sacred Heart was 2/23 from 3 point range. 

I would expect this game to be higher scoring than the game on Monday, but the pace of the game on Monday was just 64 possessions. If we assume this will be 67 possessions, a good amount faster, my numbers still can't get very close to this total.

At 67 possessions these teams would both have to average 1.04 points per possession on average to get this total to 139.5. These are two very poor offensive teams. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Niagara is a team I've isolated as due for positive regression on offense. The Purple Eagles did shoot the ball much better in their last game against Fairfield. Niagara was really efficient offensively last year, and they return most of their main guys. There isn't any reason to expect anything other than a solid offense here yet again. 

On the other end of the floor, Niagara is really bad. They were 310th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They have have played four games against bad offenses this year, and their defensive stats are skewed right now.

Albany shot the ball horribly in their last game, and their season stats are very poor offensively. The Great Danes put up 84 points in an 84-80 win over Niagara last year, and they should be able to score on Niagara quite a bit again this year.

This total is too low based on recent scores from these two teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico Lobos dialed back the tempo a bit so far this year. Paul Weir said the team fouled too much in exhibitions leading up to the season and he had to have the team turn it down to 80 instead of 100. New Mexico then played a much slower than expected pace against Rice in their only game against a Division One opponent so far this year.

New Mexico should be far worse on offense than they were a year ago. The Lobos will badly miss Vance Jackson, JaQuan Lyle, and Zane Martin. The Lobos have more length on the inside than they have had in some previous seasons, and their defense should at least be decent.

Boise State is far better defensively this year than they were a year ago. The Broncos are one of the 15 tallest teams in the country. They are always excellent on the defensive boards which is a big deal here. 

There is a good chance Boise State wins this game by a decent margin, and if that is the case I see them slowing the pace down even more late in the game.

Take the under here. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Bryant Bulldogs have played eight games, and only two of them have stayed under 156 points (153 and 136). Bryant has gotten to 169 points or more in four of their games this year. This team ranks third in the nation in tempo. They are going to push at every opportunity.

UMass is expected to be much better on offense with some of the newcomers they brought in. The Minutemen have been very good on offense through three games. They have scored 94, 75, and 85 points in those three games. Bryant is the fastest paced team UMass has played yet.

The tempo should clearly be here. There is always a chance of bad shooting, but this game is far off my projected number for this game.

Take the over. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns played in three games with very bad weather this year. Those games were played in extreme wind and that makes their offensive numbers look a little worse than they should and their defensive numbers a little better than they should. The fact is in a game played in decent weather conditions, the Browns haven't had a game finish with a score lower than 44 points all season.

I admit that the Giants are a lower scoring team, and they may well have Colt McCoy at quarterback here. Still, this Browns defense has been really weak against the run, and I think the Giants should be able to run the ball in this one. 

The Browns rushing attack is one of the best in the NFL. Also, the Giants are going to be without star corner James Bradberry in this one. The Browns do have big play receivers on the outside. Baker Mayfield is inconsistent, but he should be able to hit some big plays here.

This is an awfully low total for today's NFL. I view the Browns as an over team, so I'll take the low over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I took the over when these two teams met on Friday night and cashed. I'll be on the over again here. The number has been adjusted up some, so this is a slightly smaller play. Still, I think there is value on the over.

Portland State plays at an extremely fast pace every single year under Coach Peery. They rank 7th in the nation in overall tempo so far this year. The Vikings have shot the ball horribly so far this year. Portland State is shooting 21% from long range. They have an effective field goal percentage of only 38.1% (324th in the country). They have still had two of their three games against division one opponents finish at 159 points or more. They should start shooting the ball better, but their defense has serious problems.

Weber State has a much improved offense this year. The Wildcats have many more scoring options than they had last year. Weber State torched this Portland State press on Friday, and they should get a lot of open looks again here. 

These two have a history of playing high scoring matchups against each other.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Arizona State put up 70 points which makes this look like a questionable selection, but Arizona just handed the Sun Devils that game last week. I don't think Arizona State's offense is bad, but they certainly aren't as good as they looked last week. 

Oregon State likes to run the football a lot, and I think they will try to establish the run in this game. 

Arizona State is a slower paced team and they are fairly conservative on offense as well. The Sun Devils defense has shown to be a high quality unit so far this year.

The weather here makes me play the under. There is a 90% chance of rain with winds of 15-17 mph expected throughout this game. It is expected to be quite a bit of rain. The combination of rain and wind is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers offense has been tremendous in every way this year. Green Bay is much healthier on the offensive side of the football than the average NFL team right now. 

Green Bay ranks 5th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The Packers have faced a lot of tough defenses too. The Packers are balanced on offense, which allows them to be very good in the red zone as well.

Carolina's defense has given up a lot of big plays this year. The Panthers secondary is a big problem, and Aaron Rodgers and this group of receivers should take advantage of this unit. 

On the other side, the Packers defense has been middle of the road this year. Teddy Bridgewater and the Carolina offense have continued to be pretty good this year. Green Bay should have a lead in this game as well, and when the Packers get a lead in the second half they are quick to play a prevent defense. This has allowed a lot of opponents to put up points in the fourth quarter. A good example of this was their win over the Bears a couple weeks ago.

Look for a high scoring contest here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Radford Highlanders lost all kinds of offensive talent from last year. Radford is going to struggle to score on nearly everyone they play this year. This is a team though that does play defense, and they know how to slow the game down. Radford should play in a lot of low scoring contests this year.

Vanderbilt is much improved on defense. Saban Lee was good offensively for this team last year, but he was a weak defender. They have upgraded on the defensive end, but are somewhat weaker on offense. Vanderbilt has also drastically slowed their tempo this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Baylor Bears are playing more than two seconds per possession quicker than they did a year ago. Kansas State is better on offense and worse on defense than they were a year ago. Even before those two changes, Baylor and Kansas State played games last year that finished with 140 and 151 total points.

Baylor has scored at least 82 points in each of their first four games. Kansas State gave up 81 points at home to Fort Hays St in a loss. They also gave up 80 to Drake and 75 to Wisconsin Milwaukee. Baylor should be able to score a lot of points here.

Kansas State is 91st in effective field goal percentage offense this year. They were 270th last year. They will drop during the season, but they do appear to be better on offense this year.

This total is set as if it were a game played last year. These are two different teams this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Furman Paladins beat the Winthrop Eagles 80-73 at home last year. Both of these teams are playing significantly faster than they did a year ago. In fact, Winthrop is playing at the single fastest pace on offense of any team in the country so far this year. 

Furman is playing 1.5 seconds per possession quicker so far this year than they did a year ago. The Paladins are a really efficient offense with multiple elite scoring options on the floor at all times.

Both of these teams shoot the ball well and the pace should be there.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* South Alabama's defense is really bad. They are 317th out of 324 teams who have played so far this year in effective field goal percentage defense. It isn't because they have played a bunch of good offenses either. Southern Miss put up 75 points on this team, and the Golden Eagles have major offensive woes. Flagler put up 81 points on South Alabama. 

Alabama A&M impressed on offense in their first game against Samford. This isn't a team that is going to end up being all that good on offense though. Still, they put up 79 points against this South Alabama defense last year.

South Alabama is good at pushing the pace. They are clearly the more polished offense. They should lead in this game, and they should get to the line a bunch.

This one was 89-79 in a very fast paced game last year.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wright State has a lot more length and physicality in the frontcourt this year. When he was asked before the year what would be the most different about this year's Wright State team Coach Scott Nagy said they would be much better on defense thanks to their frontcourt. 

Wright State still plays relatively quickly, but they are better on defense than on offense. 

Detroit has slowed their pace down a bit from a couple years ago. This Detroit team isn't great on defense by any means, but they are certainly improving on that end. 

I had this game totaled at 142, so I see value on the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This isn't the type of bet I would usually make betting a high over in a neutral court contest. Iowa and Gonzaga aren't your typical teams though. These are the top two offenses in the country. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 in the country in tempo as well.

Luka Garza is nearly unstoppable, and Gonzaga definitely doesn't have anyone who can stop him. The Hawkeyes have multiple very good outside shooters.

Gonzaga can push in transition with Suggs and the athletic frontcourt players as well as anyone in the country. 

Iowa used a full court press quite a bit in their last game, and I expect that to show up here again. The Hawkeyes halfcourt defense is terrible, and Gonzaga will expose them. 

Gonzaga's defense was a question mark to Coach Few before the year. They'll have trouble here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings had a low scoring game against Washington State last game. I think that gives us a good chance to get a solid number to play the over here. This total is the same as the Portland State game against Washington State game was. Washington State is an under team, and Weber State has a far weaker defense.

Weber State picked up a lot of solid junior college transfers in the offseason. They had an ugly shooting performance against Boise State last game, but Boise State will make a lot of offenses look bad this year. 

The lowest scoring game in the last ten meetings between these two is a total of 151 points. This posted total has been set lower than that. 

Portland State will continue pressing and running at every opportunity and they will have a lot of high scoring games this year. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Two explosive offenses face off on Friday night in southern California. Slovis is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and this Oregon defense has been a big disappointment this year. Oregon has allowed 5.73 YPP on the season, and this may be the most talented offense they have faced yet.

Oregon's offense has been better than expected this year. The Ducks rank 9th in YPP in the nation on offense. They have 30 plays of 20 yards or more in only five games. They have a ton of speed in the backfield.

Conditions look perfect for this game, and I see both offenses with clear advantages. This should be a close game that turns into a shootout. 

Take the over. 

*This line varies significantly from book to book- I would rate this a 4 star play up to 64 and 3 star at anything higher than that.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks have underachieved on defense according to my expectations this year. They have overachieved versus my expectations on offense. Oregon losing Pritchard has to hurt their offense on the whole. On the defensive side, Oregon should be about where they were a year ago. 

San Francisco has been really impressive this season so far. The Dons defense has impressed me in their wins over Nevada and Virginia. San Francisco should be competitive here.

Both of these teams are good on the defensive glass and that should limit second chance scoring. This line is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* These teams met on November 30th at Mercer. The final score was 86-69 and the game was played to a blistering fast pace of 79 possessions. I don't see any reasons to expect anything different here.

Mercer uses traps and aggressive defense which keeps the opposition moving. Georgia State ranks among the 25 fastest teams in the country in terms of pace. They will be more than happy to run. 

Mercer is a much better shooting team this year with Ross Cummings on the roster. The Bears have scored 77 points or more in every game this season. 

I expect both offenses to look good here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange sped up a bit last year from the year before. They have sped up a lot more this season from last year. They have a lot more speed in the backcourt and they have more options as 3 point shooters on the outside also. This Orange team is likely to keep running through the season.

Northeastern played two games against UMass and they ran in both of those games. While they likely won't play all that fast through the year, I don't think they can stall here too much because they are likely to be losing throughout.

Take the over here. 

*5 Star CBB Hidden GEM TOP Total of the WEEK* These two teams played on Tuesday and the final score was 91-86 St. Francis. That game was played to a ridiculous fast pace of 82 possessions. If they play at that pace again, both teams could average a very weak 0.94 points per possession and this one would go over the total. This game might be a bit slower, but these are two weak defenses. 

It was no fluke that there was a really high scoring game between these two. The last two meetings before yesterday for these two teams were 169 points and 164 points.

I don't know what would make the oddsmakers set such a low total on a game like this. These teams have proven that they play at a track meet pace when they face off against each other. 

My numbers make this game quite a bit higher than this. 

Take the over. TOP Rated play. 

*4 Star Play Over* Travis Ford has picked up the pace in a big way for this St. Louis team. I'm happy to see them push the gas pedal down. This is a team that is at their best when they are in transition and getting to the basket and drawing fouls. They should be able to do that against an Indiana State team who fouls a lot and can struggle in transition defense.

Indiana State played a high scoring game against Purdue (typically a lower scoring team). The Sycamores played very fast in that game. Indiana State has a very good guard in Tyreke Key. They should be able to get to the line too against a St. Louis defense that is very aggressive.

The tempo of this game should be quick enough to get this one past the posted total unless the shooting numbers are very poor.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gabe Watson was the top scorer for Southern Miss last year and he left the team in the offseason. Jay Ladner's team is playing significantly slower this year than it did last year (and they were already slow last year). It appears he is trying to hide their poor offense and lean on the defense to keep them in games.

Lamar lacks the outside shooting to make Southern Miss pay for sagging back in the paint and trying to keep people away from the rim. Lamar is shooting less than 25% from 3 point range on the season. 

Lamar's defense does a good job forcing a lot of turnovers and wasted trips down the floor. Southern Miss is very prone to those problems.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wisconsin played two games all of last year (31 games) with a tempo of 70 possessions or more. In their five games so far this year, three of them have been 70 possessions or more. Wisconsin is using only 16.6 seconds on average of the shot clock compared to 19.9 seconds of the shot clock last year. The Badgers will likely slow back down a bit, but this total is priced as if they are playing as slow or even slower than last year.

Loyola (Chicago) is a good offensive team. They added a very good offensive transfer from Oakland, Braden Norris. They now have a plethora of good outside shooters. The Ramblers have one big weakness as a team and that is defending the 3 point line. 

Wisconsin has been an above average team for many years in a row from beyond the arc. The Badgers should be able to get a lot of open looks from three in this one.

This number has dropped enough that I see value on the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns have improved a lot on defense this year. Why? The main reason is Theo Akwuba on the inside. The 6'11 big man is a good defensive rebounder and a guy who can swat a lot of shots in the paint. Louisiana didn't have anyone like him last year and opponents frequently got to the hoop against this team.

New Orleans takes far too many midrange jumpers for my liking. New Orleans also turns the ball over a bunch. Expect a lot of wasted possessions from them. They will improve on defense this year since their frontcourt is healthier than it was last year.

These two teams already played this year. It was a 66-63 final. This one shouldn't be that low since the shooting numbers were bad in that one, but I expect a bunch of turnovers again and I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Last year when these two teams met the final total was 128 points. Clemson is much better on defense this year than they were a year ago. The Tigers rank second behind only Texas Tech in defensive efficiency so far this year. They have completely shut down Mississippi State, Maryland, and Alabama already this season.

Virginia Tech ranks as one of the 25 slowest paced teams in the country. The Hokies are a top 50 defense in the country as well. They have scored 64 points or less in regulation in three of their last four games. Offensively, this is a team that can go through some slumps.

Clemson's offense has struggled year after year under head coach Brad Brownell. Clemson has been inefficient every single season, and I would expect the same this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Baptist Huskies lost their top three offensive players from a year ago. Houston Baptist was awful on defense last year and pretty good on offense. They are much weaker on offense this year. Yes, they are still bad on defense. However, Houston Baptist is clearly playing slower than last year. They are using more than a second per possession more on average already this year.

Rice also lost a bunch of their outside shooters from last year. The Owls are improved on the defensive end, but they are weaker on offense this season.

This isn't a game I'm excited to bet the under in, because Houston Baptist unders are tough to take. Still, it is one where I am off the market by enough that I have to play the under here because I see enough value.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The George Washington Colonials averaged 18.9 seconds per possession last year. They are playing much faster this year. George Washington is averaging only 14.9 seconds per possession so far this season. George Washington's games have averaged 154 points so far this year. They have played only one game this year that has stayed under this posted total. 

William & Mary has played only one game this year. The Tribe lost a 82-78 decision against Old Dominion. Old Dominion is a slow paced team with a solid defense. William & Mary is loaded with good shooters, and this is an efficient offense every year. They haven't finished outside the top 31 in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense since 2012. At the same time, they aren't very good on the defensive end.

Look for George Washington to push the pace here, and this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Portland State isn't a team I am looking to take unders with very often, but this number is too high from the oddsmakers when they are up against Washington State.

Kyle Smith's Washington State team is far better on defense than offense. The Cougars are also going to look to slow the game down. Portland State's single biggest weapon on offense is offensive rebounding. Washington State has been a good defensive rebounding team the last couple seasons. 

I made this number quite a few points lower than this, but I'm going to keep this as a 3 star rated play because Portland State games can have a lot of variance with their pressure style and a lot of fouls.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks offense has really come back down to earth in recent weeks. After last week's loss at home against the Giants, Pete Carroll said the Seahawks need to run the football a lot more and get back to giving the ball to Chris Carson a lot more. I don't understand that strategy, especially against the Jets.

New York is third in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. If the Seahawks want to run the ball consistently here and play as slow as they have been playing in recent weeks, I think that gives a lot more value to the under.

The Jets offense is averaging 5.0 YPP at home and only 4.4 YPP on the road. The Seahawks defense is clearly much better with Jamal Adams and Carlos Dunlap on the field. Adams plays against his old team here and he should be ready to go. 

The weather report calls for rain here and that could lead to an even more conservative game plan from each team. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coppin State Eagles play at an extremely fast pace. Juan Dixon's team ranks 4th in the nation in overall tempo so far this year. They are averaging 77 possessions per contest.

UMBC decided before the season that they wanted to play much quicker than a year ago. Coach Ryan Odom thought it would help the offense be more efficient and have more constant motion. So far he has been right. UMBC is shooting the ball much better from the floor so far this season.

These two teams have played each of the last three seasons. The final totals in those games have been 155, 131, and 163 points. UMBC is playing significantly faster than they were in any of those seasons. 

Coppin State doesn't shoot the ball well, but they have faced a lot of defenses that are significantly better than UMBC as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'm going to keep playing Air Force unders unless I think their opposition is a great over team. Joe Scott's Air Force team is going to rank in the bottom five in the nation in tempo this year. They will run the Princeton offense and use up the clock every time down the floor.

Drake is capable of high or low scoring games. I do think Drake is likely to win this game, but they have shown in the past that they are willing to slow the pace down when they are ahead in the second half.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Titans and Jaguars meet up on Sunday afternoon. The Titans beat the Jaguars 33-31 earlier this year. The two teams had 6.0 and 6.5 yards per play in that game. The Jaguars have quite a few injuries on the defensive side now. I think they are a bit weaker on defense than they were in that first matchup.

Tennessee is a really good offense. They have a great running back in Henry. They also have very good wide receivers and an efficient quarterback in Tannehill. Smith is a good offensive coordinator for them also. I don't think Jacksonville can do much of anything to slow them down here.

Mike Glennon has done a decent job at quarterback for the Jaguars. Jacksonville does have some decent pieces on the outside to throw the ball to. The Titans have absolutely no pass rush, and I think the Jaguars will be able to move the ball through the air pretty well here.

Both teams play much faster than the NFL average, and this total isn't all that high in today's NFL.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs offense is awful. San Diego State picked up a brutal 2.6 yards per play on offense against Colorado two weeks ago. They then followed it up by picking up only 3.4 yards per play against Colorado State. 

San Diego State has absolutely no passing game, so if they are going to move the ball it will have to be on the ground. That makes this a hard matchup for them since the strength of the BYU defense is their run defense. BYU is 16th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. 

BYU's offense is a very good unit, but San Diego State ranks first in the nation in yards per play allowed this season. The Aztecs front seven is excellent and they should be able to get some pressure on Wilson here. The Cougars will score their points here, but they are moving slowly and it should take some time. 

I see both defenses forcing some field goals here, and with two teams who play slowly and do run the football quite a bit, I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks are going to play faster under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. He learned under Kevin Keatts, and he is running the same system Keatts ran here. 

UNC Wilmington is aggressive taking the ball to the basket and getting to the line a lot. They will have a tough matchup here against Ole Miss and a good interior defense, but since they are likely to be playing from behind I expect the tempo to be very quick from them. Also, I think Wilmington is likely to press at least some in this game.

Ole Miss will use their 1-3-1 zone to force turnovers this year, and they are going to look to score in transition off those turnovers. They had 75 points with 8 minutes left against Jackson State before letting off the gas to be as classy as possible. UNC Wilmington is a couple notches better than Jackson State, but the Seahawks will likely give up some easy transition buckets here.

Both teams are teams I would project to be good at getting to the line, and with a lower total like this I think that can be really important.

Take the over. 

*4 Star CBB Early Bird Special* The Dayton Flyers lost Obi Toppin from last year's team. Dayton is still a very good team, but the Flyers aren't even close to as efficient as last year. Dayton has struggled to score at times so far this year. Dayton has scored 66, 64, and 66 points in their games against Eastern Illinois, SMU, and Northern Kentucky. None of those teams are great on defense.

Mississippi State lost their top two offensive players from last year. The Bulldogs always play slowly and they are doing that again this year. This season they will be unable to shoot the ball at the same clip they did a year ago. On the other hand, they do have a couple very good shot blockers in the paint.

This game is played at a neutral site, and early games played on a neutral court have been good under bets in the last decade.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Buffalo likes to run the ball early and often. The Bulls play at a very slow pace. Akron has slowed their pace to a crawl this year as well. This is a very high total for a game being played at this kind of a pace with both teams running the football.

The weather here looks very questionable. I don't see Akron contributing many points at all here. This is an awfully high total for one team to get nearly all the points in a game that projects as a slow paced game with a lot of running. 

The weather here doesn't look very good either. I see value on the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas Tech ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. That should be no big surprise since Chris Beard's teams are always excellent on the defensive end. Texas Tech has only allowed 46, 40, and 44 points in their last three games. 

Texas A&M Corpus Christi isn't going to score many points here. The Islanders play at a slow pace and they struggle badly with turnovers. There will be a bunch of wasted possessions for them.

Texas Tech is 99th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Red Raiders offense is pretty good, but they also turn it over too much. This is a team that is comfortable playing at a slow pace as well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Mick Cronin's teams are always strong on the defensive end. The Bruins will be good on that end again this year. 

So far this season UCLA has been good on offense as well, but they have played some very weak defenses. The Bruins are now up against a Marquette team that ranks 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Marquette isn't the same team without Markus Howard. Howard was a shot maker and a guy that got to the line a lot and knocked down a ton of shots from the charity stripe. Their offensive efficiency will be far lower this season. 

Last year Marquette was 60th in tempo, and so far this year they are much slower 141st in the country. UCLA ranks in the bottom 20% of teams in the country in terms of tempo. 

Look for a tight lower scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Grand Canyon Antelopes have a new head coach in Bryce Drew this year. Drew has always had his teams play slower than average. Grand Canyon has started out this year playing at a very slow pace against Grambling and Mississippi Valley State (it is hard to slow a game down against these guys). 

Nevada lost a ton of offense from last year's team. The Wolf Pack no longer have a go to guy on offense, and their backcourt is a big question mark. While they are clearly weaker on offense, I like Nevada's length in the frontcourt and how it could lead to opponents having a tougher time getting to the rim against this team. 

Nevada and Grand Canyon have both played some games that have been very low scoring on relative basis compared to last year. Based on both of these teams being high flying teams in recent seasons, I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted this total down enough.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots should come up with a good defensive scheme to face Jared Goff and the Rams here. They certainly did a couple years ago in the Super Bowl. Jared Goff can look great one game and very questionable the next game. 

The New England offense is being very conservative on offense right now. The Patriots run the ball a bunch. The Rams are allowing 3.91 yards per carry. Look for the Rams to do a good job stopping the run here. I don't trust Cam Newton to be able to do much through the air against this elite secondary either.

The Rams defense ranks number one in the NFL in yards per play allowed overall. 

Both of these teams have played 8 of their 12 games so far this year under this total. 

Look for the defenses to have the upper hand on Thursday night.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars are a much different team than they were a year ago. They have far less offensive weapons, but they are clearly better on defense. BYU now has a big man in the middle of the paint with length that can deter drivers from getting to the hoop. Matt Haarms is somewhat limited on offense, but he should be pretty good for this BYU team. 

BYU has played five Division One teams this year, and four of them rank in the top 100 in the nation in tempo. The Cougars have still played four of those five games under this total (highest score was only 147). I think the oddsmakers are having a hard time adjusting BYU totals down enough for their new roster.

Boise State's Marcus Shaver is banged up and will likely be less than 100% here. The Broncos have a good defensive team who can go through slumps on offense at times because they don't move enough.

BYU is good at forcing a lot of midrange jumpers which isn't ideal for Boise State's offensive identity. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Xavier Musketeers are playing significantly faster on offense this year. Travis Steele has his team spreading out on the floor and looking to use a euro style to get space and create open looks for their improved shooters on the perimeter. 

Oklahoma always wants to run under Coach Kruger. The Sooners have seen 171 and 160 points scored in their first two games. Their offense starts with Austin Reaves, and I don't think Xavier has anyone who matches up well defending him. 

I expect lots of chances in transition for both teams. These two teams are going to be very good in transition this season. 

Expect a close game all the way, and overtime or a foul fest is certainly a possibility with the way this game would project.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves host the Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions on Wednesday night. Arkansas State has played a very tough schedule of defenses so far, and that has made their offensive numbers very ugly. That should change here.

Arkansas State has had 23.7% of their shots blocked so far this year. That can't continue. They saw less than 6% of their shots blocked a year ago, and an average number is in the 9-10% range. 

A key to this handicap for me is both teams getting to the free throw line a lot. Pine Bluff has ranked in the bottom 15 in the country at defending without fouling the last five years in a row. Arkansas State has ranked in the bottom 25 in that same stat in the last two years. 

Both of these teams have ranked very highly at getting to the charity stripe. They are both aggressive at taking it to the basket. Look for a lot of trips to the line in this game.

Pine Bluff has allowed 80 points or more in every game this year. I think Arkansas State can get there or get very close. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bryant Bulldogs have had a drastic change in pace so far this year. Bryant averaged 17.2 seconds per possession last year, but so far this year they are at a blistering face pace of only 12.8 seconds per possession. That is the second fastest pace in the country so far this year. 

Bryant has played three games. Two of them have been against Division I schools (Syracuse and New Hampshire). Those two games had a pace of 86 and 82 possessions. Their game against Rhode Island College finished 138-93 (97 possessions). After that game Jared Grasso, head coach at Bryant, said he was very happy with the pace his team played at in that contest.

St. Francis and Bryant played one of their two games last season over this number, and that was with Bryant playing significantly slower. The opening total has been bet up some here, but I don't think it has been bet up enough considering the tempo change.

St. Francis has been a slightly faster than average paced team on the whole in the last three seasons. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Hampton Pirates lost their two stars from last year. Jermaine Marrow graduated and Ben Stanley transferred to Xavier. Those two guys averaged 24.8 ppg and 22.0 ppg last season. They also lost their fourth leading scorer in Greg Heckstall. 

Before the season, Hampton Coach Edward Joyner Jr. said he wanted to change the tempo of his team this year. He said the strength of the team is inside and they need to run more halfcourt sets. Hampton ranked 56th in the nation in tempo last year, but they will be slower this season. They also are very likely to be far less efficient on offense. 

Norfolk State is usually the best or second best defense in the MEAC. Norfolk State isn't very good offensively, but they can force teams into a lot of bad looks and turnovers.

Last year, Norfolk State played 11 games against Division I opponents in the non-conference schedule at the beginning of the year. All 11 of those games stayed under this total. One of those games was against Hampton (who was without Marrow as they will be again here) and the final was just 64-53. 

I would expect Hampton to be a little better on defense and worse on offense this year. Norfolk State is a very similar team to a year ago. This total is set at too high of a number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMBC Retrievers want to play with a lot more pace this year. Coach Ryan Odom said he believes the uptick in tempo this season will help with their offensive efficiency. The team has spent every bit of time they had prior to the season getting ready for their new faster style of play.

George Washington is playing much faster as well. Jamion Christian says he now has the personnel to play faster and shoot a lot more 3's than they did a year ago. George Washington ranks as the 17th fastest in average possession length so far this year. Their games have finished with 149, 160, and 154 points.

I expect to see a fast pace in this game, and the number hasn't been adjusted enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks defense is much improved with Carlos Dunlap and Jamal Adams. Seattle has allowed 5.8 yards per play on the year, but only 4.8 yards per play in their last three games. They have actually played two good offenses in those last three games too (Arizona and the LA Rams). 

Seattle has been far more conservative with their play calling in recent weeks. Pete Carroll has said he wants to reduce the amount of hits Russell Wilson takes. This sets up as a game where the Seahawks can salt away the win by running the football and using up the clock.

Colt McCoy is expected to start here, and I think he is a big downgrade from Daniel Jones. McCoy doesn't throw the ball down the field as much, and he isn't able to use his legs the way Jones can. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals offense is a mess without Joe Burrow. The offensive line is the worst in the NFL. Brandon Allen is the starting quarterback here and he doesn't even know the system much at all. Their only touchdown last week was a special teams touchdown and that was against an average at best Giants defense. The Dolphins are an above average secondary. The Bengals are banged up in the running game, and it is hard to see them scoring much at all.

With Miami heading into a big game against KC the next week it is easy to see the Dolphins just grabbing a lead here and coasting and being happy to salt this one away and play with a slow tempo. Tua is the likely starter at QB here and that means a more conservative game plan.

Look for a low scoring game all the way around here. I think this could stay in the mid 30's or lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Texans offense will look a lot different without Will Fuller on the outside stretching the field. Deshaun Watson is an excellent quarterback, but his numbers without Fuller are far worse in his career than his numbers with Fuller on the field. This will be the first time he has been without Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins (now at Arizona).

Houston has put up a lot of points of late, but they haven't been up against a good defense in a long time. In fact, the last solid defense they played was the Steelers back in September. 

Indianapolis is expected to be without star lineman Anthony Castonzo. That will make Phillip Rivers a little less comfortable in the pocket. The Colts prefer to play it safe offensively and move at a slower tempo.

Divisional games late in the season have been good under bets, and this one fits that system. 

I see both offenses as a bit overvalued with their recent high scoring games against bad defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings offense is averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per play on offense at home. Kirk Cousins is playing really well and Adam Thielen will be back in the lineup here. Justin Jefferson is a great second option. The Jaguars secondary is probably the worst in the NFL. I expect Cousins and the Vikings receivers to have a big day here. 

Dalvin Cook may be a bit banged up. Even if Cook misses time here, the Vikings offensive line is good in run blocking, and the Vikings have a good group of backup running backs. 

I think Sean Glennon is a step up from Jake Luton, and I liked what I saw from him last week. With the Jaguars offense getting a little bit healthier, I think they put up some points in this one. 

Minnesota ranks 21st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Jacksonville is last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

This game is played in a dome. We have two very weak defenses and an average total in today's NFL.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I see the Cleveland Browns as an over team right now. They had three really bad weather games which skewed their stats significantly. This is an above average offense with a strong offensive line and two very good running backs. It is also a defense that is clearly below average, especially without Denzel Ward in the secondary. 

The Tennessee Titans have been an amazing over bet with Ryan Tannehill under center. How good? The over is 20-4 in the Titans last 24 games with Tannehill under center. Derrick Henry does a great job keeping the defenses attention, and the Titans wide receivers are underrated by many. The Titans have big play potential at all times. The Titans secondary is vulnerable without Adoree Jackson. 

Both of these teams have 44 plays of 20 yards or more, which is tied for 9th in the NFL. 

The weather looks good for this one, and I expect both teams to put up quite a few points here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams met last year and the final total was 132 points. Houston is playing much slower so far this season, and I think they will try to turn this into a halfcourt contest.

South Carolina is once again a very scrappy team who will be excellent on the defensive end. The Gamecocks are likely to struggle on offense though. They only scores 62 on Liberty and 69 on Tulsa. Houston is a better defense than either of those teams.

This game is totaled as an average scoring game in college hoops. I think these defenses are too good for that number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones are a strong defensive team. West Virginia is very good on the defensive end as well.

West Virginia ranks 5th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have played a weak schedule, but this is a very good defense who should be able to at least slow down Brock Purdy and the Cyclones offense. 

West Virginia's offense hasn't been very good overall, and they have been very weak away from home. Iowa State's front seven should be able to shut down the running game and put pressure on the quarterback here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Air Force has played at the single slowest pace of any team in the country so far this year. Joe Scott has made it known that he wants this team to run the Princeton offense and move extremely slowly this season. They have done exactly that thus far. Their first two games finished with 127 points (against a very fast paced team) and 108 points. 

Lamar is averaging only 58.3 points per game this year. They scored only 45 against Houston and 57 against Tulane. The Cardinals move a little faster than an average offense, but they are very inefficient. 

The books are having a hard time catching up to Air Force's change of pace. Unless they shoot really well here, I don't think they can get to this number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bowling Green Falcons meet the Akron Zips in what should be a really bad game. These two teams are the worst two teams in the MAC, and they are two of the bottom five teams in the country overall.

The last two seasons when these two teams met the final score was 35-6 and 21-6. The two teams combined for a pathetic 376 yards of total offense last year. 

Akron is playing at a much slower pace this year. They have decided that they have to do their best to play keep away and hide their really bad defense. The Zips offense hasn't been able to get many big plays at all this year.

Bowling Green's quarterback play has been awful. The Falcons have the run the football, and that means a running clock a bunch of the time.

I don't want to watch this game and neither should you, but I do think the under holds value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars have played one game that finished higher than this total, and that was against Arkansas State. Arkansas State is the fastest paced team in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have a great offense and a terrible defense. 

Troy has been really bad offensively the last few weeks. Their offensive line is a big problem. The Trojans have scored 13, 17, and 10 points in their last three games. 

This total has been bet up to a point where the under has value. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Eastern Washington is all about running and gunning on offense. This team ranked 19th in overall tempo in the country last year. 

What has Sean Miller talked about a bunch in the offseason? That he wants his team to play faster. Here is their chance. Arizona did shoot the ball quickly on their possessions against Grambling, but they weren't very efficient. I think the fact that the Grambling game was awfully low scoring for the tempo makes this total a good value.

Eastern Washington has several scorers, but they can't play any defense. Arizona should be able to put up a big number on them.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats prefer to play at an extremely slow pace. Kansas State also runs the ball on 59% of their snaps on offense. 

Texas is much improved on defense this year. They rank 29th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Longhorns are likely to load up the box and dare Kansas State to beat them through the air here. 

Kansas State's defense has been much better at home so far this year. They should be able to slow down a Texas offense that is very inconsistent. 

I had this one a few points lower than the total here. I think this is a good value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd host the Rice Owls in a Conference USA matchup on Saturday afternoon.

Last year when these two teams met, the final score was Marshall 20 and Rice 7. Marshall does have a better offense this year, but they are a run heavy team that plays slowly. The Thundering Herd rank 100th in the nation in tempo. Rice is even slower at 113th. 

Both of these teams run the ball on 60% of their offensive plays, which should mean a lot of running clock in this game. 

Rice just played a 27-17 game against North Texas, who has some of the highest scoring games in the country on average. They also played a 30-6 game against Southern Miss.

Marshall won 17-7 over App State and 20-9 over FLA Atlantic. 

There is a chance of rain during this game (it will mainly rain before the game and will create a wet field), and there is a little bit of wind. This could make the teams even more conservative.

Look for a low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks didn't look very good in their loss to Missouri a couple days ago, but Missouri has more talent than most realize. Also, Missouri has decided to pick up their tempo a lot this season. The Tigers put up 83 points on what should be a good Oregon defense.

Seton Hall is a good defensive team under Kevin Willard. The Pirates play at an average tempo, and their guards aren't very good in transition offense. 

This game is played on a neutral court in Omaha. These neutral court games have been great under bets in the long run, and I think Oregon's first game being so high scoring has given us good line value on this contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank second in the nation in tempo. They also have a terrible defense. North Texas just allowed Sincere McCormick from UTSA to set a new school record for rushing yards last week. They gave up 49 points to a middle of the UTSA offense.

North Texas has been very good at getting explosive plays on offense. The Mean Green already have 29 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. They face a LA Tech defense that is no better than league average.

I feel like LA Tech's scores have been depressed a bit by the teams they have played so far this year. North Texas is the best over team in Conference USA.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies offense wasn't good last year. Now, they are without their three best offensive options from a year ago. Jaden McDaniels and Isiah Stewart are in the NBA. Nahziah Carter is suspended right now. 

Washington has looked awful on the offensive end in their first couple games. They were non-competitive in a 86-52 loss to a great Baylor team in game one. The real concerning one for Washington fans was their 57-42 loss at home to UC Riverside. 

These two teams have met five times since Mike Hopkins took over at Washington and they started running the matchup zone defense. Utah and Washington have combined to score 132, 128, 122, 107, and 133 points in those five matchups. 

Utah has consistently been in the bottom 30% of the country in terms of tempo. I don't expect that to change this year. The Utes don't have much height on the perimeter and that long matchup zone of Washington has really given them trouble. 

Look for Utah's defense to be able to keep the weak Washington offense in check, and the matchup zone is likely still a problem for Utah.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers offense won't be as efficient this year without Tres Tinkle. He was the go to guy nearly all the time for this team the last few years. They played a bit slower in their first contest this year, and I would expect them to be a slow tempo team this season. They have more length this year though, and I think they could be better on the defensive end. 

Washington State has looked very good on defense in their first two games. The Cougars held Texas Southern (a pretty good SWAC offense) to only 52 points. They also held an Eastern Washington good offense to 68 points in game two. The Cougars prefer to play slowly, and this is their first opponent who will be happy to play slowly along with them.

Based on the projected pace and the shooting numbers necessary to get this past this total, I think this number is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons and Quinnipiac Bobcats meet on a neutral floor (Mohegan Sun) on Wednesday night. 

Drexel and Quinnipiac are fairly similar teams to last year. Drexel is playing a bit slower than a year ago, but they have been slightly more efficient on offense (just one game). Quinnipiac has the same nucleus and same coach and I expect a similar style of play as last year for them as well.

These two teams met last year on a neutral floor and the final score was 72-63. The tempo was just 65 possessions so it was a slow paced game.

Neutral courts are good for the under and that has already shown itself this season. This number has been set awfully high. I have this number several points lower.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Travis Steele said before the season that he wanted his team to go with a motion offense that led to them playing at a faster pace this year. Through three games, they have definitely played quicker. They averaged using 17.7 seconds of the shot clock last year and they are using only 16.3 seconds of the shot clock so far this year. Steele really thinks he has a much better outside shooting team this year as well.

Eastern Kentucky likes to press as much as possible and push the pace of the game. They have a lot of trouble on the defensive glass too, and Xavier should get a lot of second chance opportunities. Eastern Kentucky's games typically have a lot of trips to the charity stripe.

This is a great opportunity for Xavier to work their motion offense and spread the floor and look for quicker shots.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Archie Miller said he has been wanting to play with faster tempo since he has been at Indiana, but this is the first time he has had the right guys to be able to do it. In their first game, Indiana used up only 13.4 seconds of the shot clock on average. The Hoosiers were playing far faster than they did last year. His players have said from practices that they are excited and that "people will be surprised at how fast we play." 

Providence played quick in their first game against Fairfield (a team who likes to slow the game down). Ed Cooley's teams can be a bit hard to figure out as far as their preferred pace, but I think their aggression on defense is likely to get Indiana to the line quite a bit here. On the other side, Providence is great on the offensive glass which should get them good second chance opportunities.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CBB Hidden GEM TOP Play* The Samford Bulldogs have a new coach in Bucky McMillan. McMillan has stated in the preseason that he wants his team to win games that are "played in the 90's." He wants to use full court pressure all game long and sub in and out guys a bunch to stay fresh. 

It was a game against a Division III opponent, but Samford's exhibition win over Greenville University was one of the craziest box scores you will ever see. Samford won that game 174-99. Yes, you read that right.. they scored 174 points.

Also, the pace of the game was unreal. The game paced out to 116 possessions. An average game is 66 or 67 possessions. A very fast paced game is 85 or 90 possessions. 

I don't think we should assume Samford will be able to get Alabama A&M to play that quickly, but I do think Alabama A&M will have trouble with the press. Alabama A&M has finished two of the last three seasons in the bottom 40 in the country in turnover percentage on offense. Samford will turn them over and get easy scores.

Samford is the favorite here for a reason, and with them likely ahead in this one it should make Alabama A&M not be able to stall as often.

Samford's players and coaches are all talking the talk about playing extremely fast and they looked like they are backing it up in that exhibition. If they are- this total is clearly too low.

Take the over. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins are expected to have Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback here. Even if Tua were the starter here, I think this is a fair price on the total. With Fitzpatrick, I think this is a very solid price on the over.

The Jets defense is looking worse by the week. It would be a surprise if the Dolphins offense weren't able to put up quite a few points in this one.

On the other side, with a healthy group of wide receivers, the Jets offense has looked much better the last couple weeks. Sam Darnold is back here and he is an upgrade from Joe Flacco.

The weather looks good for this one, and in today's NFL if there isn't a weather issue this is a very low posted total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have become an over machine of late. Six of their last seven games have gotten to 57 points or higher. The Chargers aren't just getting over the total, they have been clearing it easily. Without Casey Hayward and Melvin Ingram here, the Chargers are without two of their best defensive players. 

Buffalo's defense has been a big disappointment this year. The Chargers have been able to get Keenan Allen going in a big way of late, and Buffalo has struggled with slot receivers in coverage. Allen should have a big game here. 

There is some wind in the forecast here (14 mph on average). That is factored into the total though, and I think both passing attacks have the edge vs. the opposing secondary. 

If it isn't broke, well you know. I see both of these teams as over teams.

Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack have only 9 touchdowns in 22 trips into the red zone. Nevada's offense is due for some positive regression in the red zone. Carson Strong is a really good fit in the air raid offense. They also have an elite receiver in Romeo Doubs. 

Nevada put up 26 points against a very good San Diego State defense last weekend. The Wolf Pack gained 374 yards in that game. In a normal game that isn't all that impressive, but San Diego State ranks 2nd in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Hawaii ranks 22nd in the nation in pace of play. This team is throwing it less this year, but they are still playing very fast. 

Nevada's defensive numbers look very good, but who have they played that is any good at offense? They haven't played a team in the top 60 in the nation in yards per play on offense. Nevada should be susceptible to the big play again this year. 

Both of these teams should get several chances in the red zone and both are due for positive regression when they get there. 

The pace of the game here means this total is set a few points lower than it should be.

Take the over. Top Rated play. 

*Note- this has moved a little bit during the week. I would rate this a 5 star play up to 61. At 61.5 or higher this would be a 4 star rated play. Thanks and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies allowed only 46 yards against Arizona in the Wildcats first 33 plays from scrimmage last week. Once Washington took a huge lead, Arizona then put up more than 300 yards in the fourth quarter when the game had been decided.

Jimmy Lake is a defensive-minded coach, and he wasn't happy that the Huskies gave up a lot in the fourth quarter against Arizona. I think that helps us here this week. Washington shut down Arizona when it mattered last week, and now they have heard from their coach all week about how much they can improve. 

Utah's defense lost a lot from last year. Where the Utes will be able to be beaten this year is through the air. Washington is running the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year, and the Huskies have an inexperienced quarterback. Utah is still very strong in the trenches, and they should be able to slow the Washington ground game.

Utah doesn't have a strong rushing attack, but they might be able to beat some teams through the air. Washington has my highest rated secondary in the Pac 12. The Huskies are going to be a problem for opposing quarterbacks.

I see two teams who play at a very slow pace and prefer to be conservative on offense. I also see two high quality defenses.

Take the under here. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the WEEK* The Loyola Marymount Lions are playing a completely different way this year. Stan Johnson was a Marquette assistant and he took over the head coaching job at Loyola Marymount this year after the team let Mike Dunlap go at the end of last year. Johnson wants the team to play quicker, and they definitely did that in game one against Southern Utah. 

There were 74 possessions in that first game. That's a fast paced game, and it is something Loyola Marymount didn't do at all last year under Dunlap. All season long last season not a single game against a Division I opponent was played that fast.

Minnesota was absolutely flying up and down the court against Wisconsin Green Bay in game one. They shot the ball on average only 12.5 seconds into the clock. The Golden Gophers put up 99 points despite going only 7/34 from the 3 point line. 

Loyola Marymount ranked 15th in shot quality last year, but was only 112th in effective field goal percentage shooting. They have enough solid shooters on their team that they should improve their efficiency on offense. 

Minnesota's Marcus Carr is going to be a very tough guard for Loyola Marymount. Adding Liam Robbins down low and Both Gach on the perimeter gives Minnesota more scoring options than last year.

Take the over. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Under* Joe Scott's Denver Pioneers were a great under team. I expect Air Force to slow things down drastically this year from the past few seasons. Dave Phillipovich had the team playing at an average pace, and that simply isn't going to happen under Scott.

It remains to be seen how good the Air Force defense will be (likely not very good), but a game with a total set this high with a team stalling the way Scott's teams always did at Denver is a must bet to the under for me.

CS Northridge lost their top two players from last year. This is a team that doesn't have a great identity on either end of the floor right now.

I expect a slower pace here and I like the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* UTSA is playing significantly faster this season. The Roadrunners have had some lower scoring games, but that is largely because of who they have played. UTSA played a Florida Atlantic team that has had a bunch of low scoring games. They also played Army and UAB who are slow paced low scoring teams. They aren't playing a low scoring slow paced team in this one. Instead, they are playing North Texas, who plays as fast as anyone in the country.

North Texas is snapping the ball every 19.5 seconds. The Mean Green are also 11th in the nation in yards per play. UTSA has already allowed 21 plays of 30 yards or more so far this season. North Texas should get a lot of big gainers here.

UTSA ranks 46th in YPC this year, and North Texas' run defense is terrible. The Roadrunners will see their scoring opportunities throughout as well.

North Texas has had only one game fall below 70 points all season. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* SE Louisiana went a shockingly bad 1/28 from 3 point range in their season opener. That's really hard to do. SE Louisiana pushes the pace in a big way, and UAB will be more than happy to play fast under new coach Andy Kennedy. Can SE Louisiana knock down more shots here? They aren't likely to be great shooting as a team this year, but they are due for positive regression after a 1/28 performance. 

Kennedy's teams ranked in the top 75 or so in the country in tempo every year when he was on the sidelines in the past. UAB does have good shooters around the perimeter and several slashers that can get to the bucket.

SE Louisiana's defense takes all kinds of risks with the full court press and the team gives up a lot of open close shots. Their opponents also get to the line a lot. Expect this to be a big problem against this UAB offense.

My tempo projections here point to this total being closer to 150.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals play at the fastest pace of any team in the MAC. Ball State is using only 22.9 seconds between plays. The Cardinals have good balance on offense too. They are tremendous in the running game with Caleb Huntley, but Drew Plitt and the passing game can get explosive plays as well. 

Last year when these two teams met Ball State won 52-14. Ball State ran for nearly 400 yards in that game! The Cardinals are likely to find a lot of success offensively again.

Toledo was without their starting quarterback in last year's contest, and they could never get anything going on offense. The Rockets are unlikely to have the same problem this year. Toledo already has 15 plays of 20 yards or more in three games this season. Ball State's defense has really looked bad so far this season, and they have played some of the weakest offenses in the MAC. Toledo is one of the best offenses in the MAC.

This line has moved down to the point where there is good value on the over here. The MAC is an over conference on the whole, and these are two very good offenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* How did this game go last year? SMU defeated East Carolina 59-51. Both teams had more than 630 yards in the game. It was a shootout all the way.

Why would this game be all that different? SMU is still very good in the passing game this year. The Mustangs already have 32 plays of 30 yards or more this year, which is the third most of anyone in the country. 

Both SMU and East Carolina rank in the bottom 20 teams in the country at preventing explosive plays. There should be a lot of big gainers from each side here. 

SMU provides the tempo, and I like the East Carolina offense better when they are playing from behind because Holton Ahlers seems to be able to get into a rhythm throwing it around later in the game in those situations.

The weather looks good here and I expect a high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in the country. The Falcons defense is absolutely awful. The offense isn't much better. Bowling Green does like to play very fast though, and that tends to lead to value on the over in their games. The Falcons rank 34th in the nation in pace of play. 

Ohio's offense was kept off the field quite a bit by Akron in their last game. The Bobcats are averaging a solid 6.04 YPP so far this year, but it has been only 24 and 27 points for them in their first two contests. Ohio isn't quite as good offensively as they were last year, but they did put up a whopping 66 points on Bowling Green last season.

Bowling Green's running game is slightly better this year, and I think they can get some yardage on the ground here. If Bowling Green can get to 20 points here we should be able to get the over. 

I think this total is set too low because Ohio had such a low scoring game against Akron. Bowling Green is going to give up a bunch of points this year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks offense is much more explosive this year despite losing a star quarterback in Justin Herbert. Why? A new offensive coordinator in Joe Moorhead. Moorhead is a really good offensive mind who puts his players in positions to make big plays.

Oregon already has a whopping 21 plays of 20 yards or more in only three games. The Ducks have several good running backs who put a lot of pressure on any defense, and the Oregon State run defense is a big problem because of their weak defensive interior on the line. 

Oregon has been a big disappointment defensively. The Ducks are giving up 6.32 yards per play so far this year. Their tackling needs some serious work, and the biggest problem spot is their run defense. That isn't good when going against Jefferson and the Oregon State running attack.

Oregon State is 29th in pace of play and the Beavers should be able to hit some big gainers against this Oregon defense.

Oregon will put up a bunch of points in this contest and Oregon State should put up enough as well. 

Take the over.