*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss offense is going to play extremely fast under Lane Kiffin this year. Ole Miss gashed a really solid Florida defense this past weekend. They had 7 plays of 30 yards or more. Amazing. 

Kentucky has a pretty good defense, but I don't think they'll shut down Ole Miss either. The Rebels have a lot of playmakers at the skill positions on offense and they'll be put in a good position to succeed. 

Kentucky's offensive line is much better than the Ole Miss defensive front. I would expect Kentucky to have a much easier time moving the ball than they did last week against Auburn's defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats put up a big number last week, but that was largely due to Oklahoma's mistakes. Kansas State only had 10 first downs in that contest.

Kansas State is playing at the third slowest pace of any team currently playing in college football. This team wants to run the ball and use up the clock. They should want to do that even more than normal here to keep Alan Bowman and this Texas Tech offense off the field. 

Texas Tech still plays quickly on offense, but they aren't quite as fast as they were a few years ago. The Red Raiders offense is far less efficient as well. They are only 23rd out of 72 teams in the country in yards per play on the year. Last week's game against Texas was misleading from a totals standpoint. Texas Tech only gained 5.8 yards per play and allowed just 5.3 yards per play against Texas. 

The last two years the meetings between these two teams have stayed well under this posted total. 

It isn't easy taking an under in a Texas Tech game, but I think Kansas State will control the tempo here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners have played much quicker this year than they did a year ago. UTSA averaged 25.79 seconds between snaps last year, but they are averaging only 22.35 seconds between snaps this year. 

UTSA also only averaged 5.06 yards per play last season, but they are at 5.86 yards per play this year. Their running game has had quite a bit of success in the early going. 

UAB is also playing a little more than a second quicker this year. The Blazers quarterback for this one is Bryson Lucero, who had a big game last week against UAB. I think he gives the team more big play ability through the air than Johnston does. 

UTSA has a very weak defense. They are unlikely to be able to slow down UAB here. While UAB does have a good pass defense, their run defense has been shaky this season. Look for UTSA to be able to break some big gainers in the running game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I see West Virginia as an under team with their strong defensive front and weak offensive line. The Mountaineers don't push the tempo like most in the Big 12 do either.

Baylor looks like they were great offensively against Kansas if you just look at the final score, but that was primarily special teams greatness against a terrible Kansas kick coverage team. Baylor's YPP was a weak 5.25 against a bad Kansas defense.

Coach Aranda is obviously a defensive guy and Baylor should be pretty good on defense. 

The Mountaineers defense is one of the best in the Big 12. 

This one is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NFL's rules right now are clearly favoring the offenses. Teams are playing quicker this year as well. The market continues to try to adjust to the higher totals, but there hasn't been a big enough adjustment yet.

Kansas City's defense has allowed 6.1 yards per play against the Chargers and 6.7 yards per play against the Texans. They have really struggled with mobile quarterbacks in their first two games. That isn't a good weakness to have when you are about to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. 

Kansas City's offense hasn't been amazing so far this year, but we all know it is coming. The Chiefs have too much talent and they are certainly going to finish the season as a top 2 or 3 offense in the NFL. 

Baltimore gets more big plays in the running game than any other team in the NFL. The Chiefs are weak in that regard. Additionally, the Chiefs are still shorthanded in the secondary without Breeland. 

I think the Ravens get the lead in this one, and that encourages more scoring here since KC can really play with pace and pile up the points when they are behind.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals are playing extremely fast this year. Kyler Murray in the second year of Kingsbury's system will be very good. Hopkins gives him an elite wide receiver. They are likely to finish with the fastest pace in the NFL this season.

Arizona moved the ball pretty well against San Francisco, and they moved it very well against a strong Washington defensive front. The Cardinals now take on a very weak Detroit Lions defense. Detroit has major problems in the secondary. Mitch Trubisky lit them up in the 4th quarter in week one. 

Green Bay averaged 7.4 yards per play in their big win over Detroit. I'm not convinced Detroit will be able to slow down Arizona here.

Arizona hasn't been tested very much defensively this year. The Cardinals played a 49ers team with a bunch of injuries on offense in week one. They took on a Washington team that is just weak on offense in their second game. 

Look for lots of plays in this one and big plays for both sides in the passing game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Denver Broncos have a lot of questions, but they are almost all on the offensive side. The Broncos defense still is very strong. 

Tampa Bay did win last week against Carolina, but they weren't all that good offensively. The Bucs are only averaging 5.3 yards per play this year (24th in the NFL). 

Denver's offense has been even worse. Denver is averaging only 4.9 yards per play on the season. The Broncos are now with backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. Driskel isn't a big downgrade from Drew Lock, but Driskel is going to have a rough time here against a very strong Tampa Bay defense.

I love the job Todd Bowles is doing with the Tampa Bay defense. They have been excellent at stopping the run in recent seasons, and that is still true, but they are much improved all around this year. I don't think the Broncos offensive line will perform well against them. Denver will try to play conservatively here, but I don't think they'll have much success.

The weather is another real factor here. The forecast calls for 18-20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 35-40 mph. That is plenty to change a game plan. Expect to see a lot of running and short passes. It will be harder to stretch the field.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals defense has one sack so far this year. Without Carson Wentz being pressured constantly, I think this Eagles offense can get going here. Cleveland moved the ball at will against Cincinnati last week. 

Cincinnati's offense will be clearly improved this year. Joe Burrow has looked very good in his first two games. Remember, he didn't get any preseason, and he has still played very well as a rookie in his first two games. The Bengals should be able to take advantage of the Eagles very weak linebackers. Burrow likes to use his tight ends in the passing game, and that should help here.

The Eagles should have the lead here (they are a clear favorite), and the Bengals have played extremely fast when trailing so far this year. The Bengals have shown they have backdoor potential and can move the ball quickly late in the game.

This one sits below the key numbers of 47 and 48. With no bad weather in the forecast, I like this one to get past the posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers should lean on the run game a lot this year. The strength of their entire team is the offensive line. They played slowly a year ago, and I expect them to play slowly again this season. 

Tennessee's defense didn't give up big plays last year. They were 3rd in the nation in fewest 20 yards or more plays allowed. With the secondary as a major strength I see that being the case again this year.

South Carolina brought in Mike Bobo to be the new offensive coordinator. He has talked extensively about the team huddling up this year and slowing the tempo down a lot compared to what it was in recent seasons. Collin Hill won the starting job and I'm not high on him at quarterback. There isn't enough talent on this South Carolina offense. Marshawn Lloyd was going to be the star of the show here at RB, but he is out for the year with an injury.

Look for a slow pace and a lot of moving clock in this game. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Boyd starts here against the Kansas City Royals. He shut them out last time against them, but this lineup has crushed him in his career overall. The Royals have a whopping .402 weighted on base average in 190 plate appearances against Boyd.

Boyd's numbers this year are far worse across the board than last year. He has given up a lot more hard hit batted balls. He is giving up home runs in bunches. That doesn't bode well for him here with the weather forecast of temperatures in the 80's and wind blowing out 15-20 mph. The ball will carry well in KC on Saturday.

Carlos Hernandez starts for the Royals, and he hasn't pitched above Single A until this month. He has a 3.46 ERA, but his FIP is 7.03 so he has been very fortunate.

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire and he is one of the best over umpires in baseball.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils offense hasn't been able to get going in the first two weeks. Struggling on offense against Notre Dame was to be expected, but averaging less than 5 yards per play against a questionable Boston College defense last week is a cause for concern.

Virginia lost star Bryce Perkins, and their offense will look totally different. Virginia threw it on more than 54% of their plays last year, and I would expect a lot more running this season. They are likely to play slowly and try to keep the clock moving. 

Duke's secondary is injured badly, but the Blue Devils have great pass rushers. Virginia doesn't have the passer or receivers to make Duke pay through the air. 

The Virginia defense is strong led by a great group of linebackers. The Duke offensive front is likely to struggle with the front seven of the Cavs. 

Look for a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Spencer Sanders' injury hurts the Oklahoma State offense in a big way. Their backups are extremely weak as we saw on Saturday against Tulsa. The Cowboys were outgained by Tulsa, and their offensive line play was poor.

Sanders is very questionable for this game (he's in a boot right now), and even if he plays he will be far less than 100%.

The Mountaineers defensive line is the strength of their team. They should be able to slow down strong running attacks this year. 

Last year when these two teams met the final was 20-13. West Virginia's defense is better than it was a year ago. Oklahoma State returned 10 guys on defense, and they looked great in the season opener (though it was against Tulsa). 

With the uncertainty around Sanders, I believe this line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs offense isn't likely to be good this year. They have serious questions at the quarterback spot. Matthew Downing has been named the TCU starter at quarterback. Max Duggan has been cleared to play and might play some (he was diagnosed with a heart condition in the offseason). The Horned Frogs offensive line will have trouble with strong defensive fronts this year. 

Iowa State's offense is Brock Purdy and a bunch of question marks. Purdy is a solid quarterback, but the line in front of him and skill position talent around him isn't nearly as good as it was a year or two ago. 

TCU's defense looks much stronger on the defensive front this year, and Gary Patterson's teams are always good in the secondary.

Iowa State's defense should get in the TCU backfield quite a bit here.

In my opinion, these are the top two defenses in the Big 12.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange offense is dreadful. Syracuse is averaging less than 3 yards per play through their first two games. Pitt is a great defense so we can give them a partial pass for that, but North Carolina's defense isn't tremendous. Still, averaging 2.85 yards per play and having allowed 14 sacks in two games is just brutal. Neither of Syracuse's quarterbacks are the answer. The offensive line might be the worst in the country. 

Georgia Tech's defense is improving under Collins, who is a defensive-minded head coach. The Yellow Jackets allowed a bunch of points last week against UCF, but UCF is going to score in bunches against nearly everyone. Look for Georgia Tech's defense to look strong again in this one. 

The Syracuse defense has impressed me so far this year. They are running a new 3-3-5 defense, and it is hard prepare for. The Orange have confused opposing offenses. Georgia Tech has some improved skill position talent, but they are still young and I think the 3-3-5 can at least slow them down.

Syracuse isn't going to just methodically move the ball up and down the field on anyone in their current state. If they don't hit big home run long touchdown, they aren't scoring. Look for the defenses to hold the upper hand in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins pass defense has struggled badly through their first two weeks. Buffalo threw for more than 400 yards on them a week ago. Byron Jones is doubtful for this game, and he is clearly a very talented member of the Dolphins secondary. 

Jacksonville's pass offense has been surprisingly effective through the first couple weeks of the season. The Jaguars moved the ball at will against the Titans on Sunday. Gardner Minshew continues to exceed expectations week after week at the quarterback spot. He has a couple nice new weapons this year in Shenault and Eiffert. I think Jacksonville moves it through the air easily in this game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good over quarterback. He can make the big play downfield, and he can also throw the pick sixes at any time. The Dolphins still have a bunch of speed on the outside, and the Jaguars secondary is a weakness. 

The offenses have had the edge in the early going in the NFL. Without the fan noise and with the rules set to help offenses as much as possible, I think many of these lower totaled games with two questionable defenses are good over looks.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox start Reynaldo Lopez here. Reynaldo Lopez has been extremely shaky this year (and last for that matter). He has poor control and can really work himself into trouble and big innings for the opposition. 

In Lopez's last 10 starts, only one game hasn't gotten to a total of 8 runs (and that one was 7 runs). Five of the ten games have gotten to at least 11 runs. 

Cal Quantrill is slated to start this bullpen game for the Indians, and he's up against a very good White Sox offense. The White Sox should create plenty of scoring chances here against an Indians bullpen that has been in poor form of late. 

This total is set too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Las Vegas Raiders open up their new stadium, but they'll do it without fans. This is still a huge game for the franchise. 

New Orleans is coming off a nice win over the Tampa Bay Bucs in week one. The Saints offense was actually a disappointment though. The Saints only averaged 4.1 yards per play. Michael Thomas is expected to miss this game as well, and he is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL. This limits Drew Brees even further. The Saints don't play quickly, and they don't look to throw it downfield. They are looking for short passes and methodically moving the football. 

The New Orleans defense is underrated. This is a very good unit. The secondary is excellent and very deep. The Raiders are unlikely to be testing the Saints downfield. I think it is far more likely that the Raiders look to run the football early and often here with Jacobs.

Derek Carr doesn't put up huge yardage through the air normally, and the Saints having a defensive coordinator who was previously Carr's coach is helpful to the defense as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers want to run the football early and often, especially with their injury issues right now. Deebo Samuel is out this week. George Kittle is banged up and is questionable here. Kittle might play, but he'll be less than 100 percent. 

The New York Jets really only do one thing well, and that is stop the run. The front seven has several good run stuffers. The Jets secondary is a weakness and the pass rush isn't very good, but the 49ers likely aren't the team to expose the pass defense weakness in their current form.

The Arizona Cardinals moved the ball quite a bit on the 49ers defense last week, but the Jets offense shows no resemblance of the Cardinals offense. The Jets running game is very weak, and Sam Darnold doesn't have enough weapons on the outside either. The 49ers elite pass rush should give Darnold quite a bit of trouble throughout this contest.

Look for this game to be played conservatively as the clock keeps ticking away.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys moved the ball just fine last week, but they didn't finish off drives. Atlanta put up a bunch of yards and quite a few points on Seattle last week, but their defense was torched by Seattle in the loss.

Sean Lee was already out for Dallas, and then the Cowboys best defender and key linebacker Leighton Vander Esch went down with an injury last week. They can't afford to be without him thanks to a thin LB group, but he's out with an injury and he'll be missed badly. 

Atlanta has arguably the top wide receiver tandem in the NFL. The Cowboys secondary is mediocre at best this year. Look for Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game to pick up big chunks here. 

Dallas is one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the Falcons have a bottom five defense in the league. The Cowboys have far too many weapons for Atlanta to slow them down in this one. Dak Prescott has all sorts of weapons around him, and I think they will get on track this week. Dallas' group of receivers is a top 3 group of WR's as well.

This one is played on the fast track in Dallas, and both quarterbacks should look great against the opposing secondary.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Indianapolis' game last week against the Jaguars was misleading. The Colts never punted all game long. They put up more than 400 yards of offense. They had a couple key turnovers and were stopped on 4th down twice. Still, the Colts averaged an impressive 6.4 yards per play.

The Minnesota Vikings defense has some major problems in the secondary. Aaron Rodgers was great last week, but those Packers receivers (who outside of Adams aren't all that good) were wide open throughout that game. Minnesota's defensive line is a major weakness without Danielle Hunter as well. The Colts offensive front is one of the best in the NFL, and they should give Phillip Rivers lots of time to throw here. They'll also open up plenty of holes for Taylor to run through.

The Vikings run game is very good, and the Colts defensive line is questionable. I think the Vikings will break some big gainers in the run game. Also, I think it is likely the Colts will playing from ahead here, and that will make Minnesota get more aggressive in the passing game. We saw what could happen in a spot like that last week. The Vikings and Packers combined to score a whopping 38 points in the 4th quarter alone.

This one is played indoors and that will help both Cousins and Rivers a lot here. Look for plenty of scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres start Mike Clevinger here. Clevinger is coming off an outing where he pitched 7 innings and allowed no runs against the Giants. Clevinger now faces a below average Seattle Mariners offense in Petco Park, which is still a very good pitchers park. 

Clevinger is backed by a great Padres bullpen. They have the best FIP of any bullpen in the last month. This is a deep bullpen that has been throwing the ball extremely well.

Justus Sheffield gets the start for the Mariners. Sheffield is a talented lefty who struggles at times to find the strike zone, but he has electric stuff and has a good swinging strike rate. 

The Padres are a very good offense, but they have been far better against right handed pitching than lefties. Eric Hosmer is also out with an injury right now. 

Additionally, Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this one. Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike in the last five years in Major League Baseball. He's a guy I want behind the plate if I'm betting an under.

The Padres have held their opponent to one run or less in five of their last ten games. The Mariners are averaging just 2 runs per game in their last four contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I expect really big things from the Oklahoma State offense this year. The Cowboys were very good offensively last year, but I expect them to take the next step to being elite on offense this year as Spencer Sanders improves in his sophomore season at quarterback.

Oklahoma State has who I believe is the best running back in the country in Hubbard. Oklahoma State also has a top 3 or 4 group of wide receivers. The Cowboys want to play fast and they should be able to get plays in large bunches against a Tulsa defense that is going to be very weak this season. 

Tulsa's defense hasn't been very good in recent seasons, but they lost their top three defenders from last year's team. Tulsa's secondary is a mess, and Oklahoma State should be able to take advantage.

Tulsa's offense is improved this year. With Smith at quarterback, Phillip Montgomery can actually run the type of offense he's been wanting to run for the last few years. Their pace will be extremely quick.

No bad weather is in the area, and with the tempo this will be played at I expect a very high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees are absolutely on fire on offense right now. New York has scored 20 runs, 13 runs, and 10 runs in their last three games. The Yankees have only scored less than 6 runs twice in their last eight games.

Now the Yankees take on Martin Perez, who they have absolutely crushed. The Yankees lineup has a whopping .513 weighted on base average against Perez. Perez is a guy who walks too many batters and doesn't get enough swinging strikes. It's hard to see him having success here. 

Jordan Montgomery is a middle of the road lefty, and the Red Sox lineup still hits lefties well. Boston ranks in the top 8 offenses in the majors in the past two weeks overall.

The Yankees and Red Sox bullpens have both been bottom ten bullpens in the last 14 days. Even if the runs aren't there early on, there should be scoring chances later in the game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Clippers and the Denver Nuggets are in a game seven on Tuesday night. It makes little sense that this series has gotten to a 7th game. The Clippers were in full control here and simply let this series get away from them. 

Game 7's have been money to the under this postseason thus far (3-0 to the under). They haven't been even close. This number has been adjusted down, so I won't make this a large play, but things tend to change quite a bit in a game 7. 

This is a win or go home game. There is a lot of pressure on both teams. The tempo slows down. The shooting percentages on the whole over time are lower as well in these spots. 

In this series already, the tempo has gradually slowed down from the first three games to the last three games. 

The Clippers are capable of locking down on defense when they are focused, and I would think we get a very focused Clippers defense here. The Nuggets will be looking to slow the pace of this game down.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers offenses aren't good against right handed pitching. Fortunately, they will be up against left handed pitchers here

Kansas City ranks 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against right handed pitching. The Royals rank 13th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

Detroit ranks 27th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Tigers rank 5th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

The Royals offense has been on fire of late. Kansas City has scored an average of 7.33 runs per game in their last six games. 

The Tigers have allowed 12 runs or more in three of their last six games. Their bullpen has been the worst in baseball in the last couple weeks.

Boyd has gotten much worse this year and the Royals have a .413 wOBA against him. The Tigers have a .311 wOBA against Duffy.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Rams still have more weapons on offense than many people realize. The wide receivers here are still very solid. Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Van Jefferson should be very productive. Jared Goff has shown he can be a quality NFL quarterback when put in the right spots and when given time. Dallas has a middle of the road pass rush. The Cowboys are also without Jourdan Lewis (CB) for this game. The Rams should play with pace here, and I think they'll get some big gainers on a Dallas defense that has some holes in it.

Dallas has an amazing trio of wide receivers that is going to give just about any secondary trouble this year. The Rams still have very good corners, but they aren't as strong at the safety spots this year. The Rams LB's are a major weakness this season, and Dallas should be able to expose this group of LB's both in the running game and the passing game.

The last four times these two teams have met the game has gone over the total. Look for a 5th straight over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers didn't get Aaron Rodgers weapons on the outside like he needed. Green Bay is going to have to lean on the running game even more heavily than they did a year ago. I look for the Packers to slow the pace of the game down and lean on their offensive front and the running backs quite a bit here. 

Minnesota will be among the most run-oriented offenses of anyone in the NFL. The Vikings have less weapons on the outside than they did a year ago, and they know Kirk Cousins can't just take over the game by himself. 

These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. Last year's games finished with 37 and 33 points total. These two teams know what the other one is going to do here, and that should help the defenses a lot.

Bill Vinovich's crew will be doing this game and the under is 58-42 in Vinovich's 100 contests.

Also, the under is a whopping 17-3 in the Vikings last 20 vs. a divisional opponent. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Jets offense wasn't good to start with, and Robby Anderson was a pretty big loss at wide receiver in the offseason. Without Ryan Kalil at center, they yet again look very weak on the offensive line. 

The Buffalo Bills have improved skill position talent on offense, but the offensive line still isn't very good. The Jets have a pretty good run stuffing defensive line, and I think they can hold their own in this matchup.

The weather here should be a major factor. The weather report calls for a 95% chance of rain during this game with sustained winds of 17 mph and gusts to 26 mph. That kind of weather makes the play calling far more conservative. It will be harder for Buffalo to try to utilize their new weapons at wide receiver. 

The two contests between these two teams last year finished with 33 points and 19 points total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Appalachian State Mountaineers have a veteran offense led by Zac Thomas at quarterback. They have a deep group of running backs and a good offensive line as well. I expect App State to be a balanced and very strong offense this year.

Appalachian State lost all 3 linebackers from last year, and all three of them were stars. They return just 5 starters on defense. The Mountaineers won't be bad defensively, but they are a clear step down from a year ago.

Charlotte returns a bunch of production on offense. Reynolds is a really underrated quarterback for this team. They have the offensive line to run on most teams. The 49ers have talked about playing a bit faster this year as well.

The 49ers defense isn't good enough to consistently slow down App State. The 49ers lost their top defensive lineman from last year.

These two teams met last year and the final score was 56-41 App State. Do I think we see something like that again? No I don't. However, they don't have to get even close to that high scoring to cash the over here.

Rain is expected here, but without wind I don't see rain as a negative, especially with two teams with great running games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals start Erick Fedde here. There aren't many starting pitchers in baseball that I rate lower than Fedde right now. Fedde has a 5.29 ERA, and he has been very fortunate. Fedde has a 5.88 SIERA and a whopping 7.14 FIP. This guy has more walks than strikeouts through 32 and 1/3 innings. That's difficult to do. More than 40% of his batted balls have been classified as hard hit by Fangraphs. 

Fedde goes up against an Atlanta Braves offense that is first in the majors in every offensive category in the last couple weeks. The Braves have scored 7 runs or more in 7 of their last ten games, and a couple of those games were double headers (7 innings). This lineup is on fire and Fedde isn't likely to slow them down.

Josh Tomlin has pitched ok for the Nationals, but he is aging and his stuff is mediocre at best. The Nationals actually rank 10th in wOBA in the last 14 days, and they have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last eight games.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs adds Clyde Edwards-Helaire, which is a scary thought for opposing defenses. He is a great pass catcher out of the backfield, and Patrick Mahomes now has another elite pass catching option. Kansas City put up 51 points on Houston in the playoffs last year in that wild come from behind win. Houston's defense is no better than last season, and it might even be weaker.

Kansas City's secondary makes them vulnerable against good passing attacks. The secondary is already a relative weakness, but now they are without Bashaud Breeland. Breeland is a very solid player and a key loss for this defense. 

Houston will take some shots downfield, and I think they'll have some success there. The Texans are likely to be behind throughout which would make them more aggressive and play faster.

The weather conditions are expected to be nice here with very little wind. 

Look for both quarterbacks to have a big game and this to be a fun high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers have played a very competitive series thus far. It really stands out to me that this series has been played at such a slow tempo compared to what we might have expected. The pace has gotten slower in each game in this series thus far. Overall for the series, the average number of possessions is at only 95. In the last two games combined, the average pace is 93.75 possessions. Last game alone, the pace was 91.5 possessions. 

The Lakers won last game by locking things down defensively in the second half. Los Angeles is likely to show up with strong defense from the start in this one. Houston is a better defensive team this year than many realize as well. 

Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3 pointers. These teams are 7th and 8th in the NBA at defending beyond the arc, so there aren't as many easy looks from long range as normal when these two meet. 

If the game is played at 95 possessions (the series average), the average points per possession would have to exceed 1.16 points per possession to get past this posted total. With the stars on these two teams it is certainly possible, but this line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians start Aaron Civale here. Civale has great control. He walks only 1.5 batters per nine innings pitched. He also has more than 10% swinging strikes so far this year, which is a solid number. The Kansas City Royals haven't faced Civale yet, and I think that gives him the advantage against the light hitting Royals offense.

Kansas City ranks 27th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. This team has been decent against lefties, but they really struggle against right handed pitching. 

Cleveland ranks 22nd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Brady Singer is a highly touted right handed prospect for the Royals. Singer has had some difficulty in his last couple starts, but those were against the great White Sox lineup. The Indians haven't been very good offensively this season.

The weather here is a plus as well. Cool temperatures in Cleveland with a wind blowing in at 12 or 13 mph through this game definitely is helpful to an under.

Mike Estabrook is the umpire here and he ranks in the top ten umpires in baseball in percentage of pitches called a strike. A solid under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies offense has heated up of late. The Rockies have scored 5 runs or more in six of their last seven games. The San Diego Padres have been one of the best offenses in baseball all season. San Diego is more than capable of putting up a huge number on their own. The Padres have scored 10 runs or more in seven games since August 17. 

Antonio Senzatela isn't a guy I trust. Senzatela allows far too much hard contact. The Rockies bullpen is running on fumes now after Chi Chi Gonzalez was torched and the bullpen had to be in for the whole game yesterday. 

Zach Davies doesn't get many swings and misses, and the Rockies offense has seen a lot of him. The Padres bullpen hasn't been nearly as good as it was expected to be this season.

Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire here. He has called the smallest percentage of pitches a strikes of any umpire in the majors in the last few seasons. The over is 33-11 in his last 44 games behind the dish.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Zac Gallen has thrown at least 6 innings in each of his last seven starts. He hasn't allowed any more than 2 runs in any of those starts. In his last four starts combined, he has allowed a grand total of three runs. Gallen is an elite young pitcher and his stuff is tremendous.

Kevin Gausman's slider is a tough pitch to hit and this Diamondbacks offense has really been scuffling of late. They are struggling to string together hits and they have been playing a lot of youngsters who are unproven in their lineup.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. Miller's strikeout/walk ratio is the second highest in the majors in the last five years. He consistently is a strike caller.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Top Total of the Week* The Colorado Rockies start German Marquez here. Marquez has allowed a .343 weighted on base average to the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. Marquez has a 10.13 ERA and a 5.57 FIP in his last three starts, so he enters this game in bad form as well.

The Dodgers lineup is a great one. They have been particularly good at home offensively. The depth of this lineup is tough for many pitchers to handle. 

Colorado's bullpen is a bottom ten bullpen in baseball, and the Dodgers could easily add on against this Rockies bullpen.

Tony Gonsolin is due for some regression. He has a 0.51 ERA this year, but his xFIP is 4.11 and his SIERA is 4.08. Gonsolin is a good pitcher, but he isn't this good. 

The weather is a big factor here too. The game time temperature is expected to be 105 degrees. That's one of the hottest temperatures you will ever see in Los Angeles. The ball was carrying very well on Friday night at Dodger Stadium, and it will be even hotter for this one. 

Finally, Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire for this game. Marquez is a great over umpire. He has called the fewest strikes of any umpire in the majors in the last three years. The over is a whopping 33-10 in his last 43 games behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Austin Voth enters this game with a ridiculous 14.90 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 7.79 FIP in those starts. Voth has allowed 16 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. He goes up against an Atlanta offense today that is 3rd in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. In his last start against Atlanta he allowed 9 hits and 5 runs in only 4 innings pitched.

Tommy Milone starts here for the Atlanta Braves. Milone has a 7.90 ERA and a 7.09 FIP in his last three starts. He clearly comes into this one in very bad form as well. Washington hasn't hit right handers well this year, but they have torched lefties like Milone. Washington is second in the majors with a .374 wOBA against left handed pitching.

This is a 7 inning contest which is why the total is lower than you would expect with these pitchers and lineups. 

The weather here is 90 degrees and wind blowing out 8-10 mph. That helps the over as well.

Look for both starters to struggle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder square off in game 7 on Wednesday night. 

Oklahoma City changed the way this series has gone by playing Lu Dort more often. Dort is a really good defender, and he's really bad offensively. He makes his opponent work very hard to get good looks. At the same time, teams will cheat off him on the other end.

Houston has shown a long history of struggling in close out games under Mike D'Antoni and with James Harden on the floor. These games are lined high for a reason- clearly the Rockets can score in bunches and could light it up from long range, but they are up against an OKC team that ranked 3rd in the NBA in 3 point field goal percentage allowed. 

In Houston's last 28 playoff games that are game #5 through game #7 in the series- 22 of those games have gone under the total and 6 have gone over the total. There have been quite a few poor shooting contests in those, and the tempo has generally been slower.

Oklahoma City can get bogged down on offense too much. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been disappointing on the offensive end down the stretch for the Thunder.

We've seen in the playoffs that the later in the series it has gotten the referees have let them play more often. That would be a big benefit to the under in this one.

Take the under here. 

*Sharp money is moving this line down- I would play this down to 216.5. My number here was 214. Thanks and good luck.* 

*4 Star Play Under* I don't really want to have to play this game since I just lost the under in game six due to some unreal shooting by Murray and Mitchell and the teams overall, but I have to in this spot.

This is a spot where I have made a lot of money through the years. Game 7- everything on the line for both teams. There is a lot of pressure on each side, and the pace usually slows down a bit. On average, the shooting percentages are usually a little lower as well. 

In the first six games of this series- the average pace has been 93.5 possessions per game. That is the slowest pace of any playoff series so far. Both teams have just been shooting lights out. These teams both averaged 1.12 points per possession in the regular season. They are averaging 1.25 points per possession and 1.21 points per possession in this series. In game six, they combined to shoot 36/72 from 3 point range.

If the teams just shot their season average (1.12)- this total would come in around 209. If both teams shoot lights out again we'll lose this play, but there are too many long term systems and angles pointing toward an under here for me to pass it up.

Look for both defenses to look a little better and the pace to be slow here.

Take the under. 

*My projection here was 213.5- so I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 217.5 and a 3 star rating at anything lower than that. Thanks and good luck.* 

*3 Star NBA Jazz/Nuggets CASH* The Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets play in a huge game six battle on Sunday night. The Jazz have been automatic on offense for most of this series. How good have they been? Utah is averaging a whopping 1.274 points per possession in this series. In their three regular season games against Denver, they averaged 1.051 points per possession. 

The pace in this series has been very slow, but the shooting numbers have been so high it hasn't mattered. Denver did switch their defense to a more aggressive defense where they fight through screens in the second half of game five. That was their best defensive half yet against the Jazz pick and roll offense. 

This game is the biggest game of the season for both teams. We should get a lot of effort on defense from both teams. This total is the second highest total for a game played between these two in the last nine meetings. Closeout games typically have lower posted totals.

Last game went over the total thanks to 10 points in the final 23 seconds of the game including a long banked in 3 by Mitchell which made Utah keep fouling and extending the game. The teams both hit 16 three pointers in that contest and it should have stayed under the total.

If the shooters cool off at all or the defense picks up some, this is a lot of points for the pace this game will be played at.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This game is being played in Buffalo at Sahlen Field. This park is playing as a major hitters park. It is rating as a similar park to Great American Ballpark and Yankee Stadium as far as park factor. 

Today, the wind is blowing out 12-14 mph for this game. We also have two starters who are questionable. Alex Cobb ranks in the bottom 10% in the majors in hard hit rate allowed. Taijuan Walker isn't getting many swinging strikes at all. 

Both of these offenses have been pretty good this season. In the last 30 days, the Blue Jays are 7th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Orioles are 13th. 

There have been some extremely high scoring games at Sahlen Field already this year. While this is a high posted total, I don't think it is quite high enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets meet in a pivotal game five matchup on Saturday evening. 

The Houston Rockets love to shoot 3 pointers. Houston is up against an OKC team that was third in the NBA in 3 point defense. The Thunder are making them shoot difficult shots in this series. 

Russell Westbrook will play for the first time in this series. Westbrook does give Houston another scoring option here, and that is why the total is up several points. At the same time, Westbrook grades as one of the better defenders for the Rockets and that is being overlooked.

Both of these teams last played on Monday and that is generally a good thing for the under with a long layoff. 

This total is set at the same number as the first couple meetings in the regular season between these two teams. This game means a lot more than those games did and on the whole that is beneficial to the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox are easily first in the majors in weighted on base average. The White Sox have a .418 weighted on base average against lefties and the second best team in the majors has a .375 wOBA. Danny Duffy is a middle of the road lefty, and the White Sox lineup has a .349 OBP against him in his career. 

Reynaldo Lopez starts here for the White Sox. Lopez has potential, but has really pitched poorly last year and this year. This Royals lineup has hit him hard. The Royals lineup has a .432 weighted on base average against him in 150 plate appearances. 

It's a warm day in Chicago with the wind blowing out about 10-12 mph here, which is another help for the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brewers and Reds meet in game one of the doubleheader here. This is a 7 inning game. 

Sonny Gray starts here for the Reds. Gray has allowed Brewers hitters to bat only .188 in 145 plate appearances. Gray has been tremendous so far this season. He is pitching deep into games as well. It's possible he'll pitch this entire game, or if not he could make it very close. 

Adrian Houser has drastic home/road splits for his career, and he is much better at home. Josh Hader got the day off yesterday with the postponed game so he might be available in this one.

The Reds rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Brewers rank 28th in the same statistic. These two teams are struggling at the plate right now.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Golden Knights are an aggressive team that forces the issue with their speed. Vancouver's defense is less than stellar, and the Knights put up 5 goals on them in game one. The Canucks didn't contribute at all by being shut out in game one, but I think that should change here in game two.

The two regular season meetings between these two both finished at 9 goals. These teams are offensive minded and another shutout is unlikely. 

Look for the fast paced action we saw in game one to repeat itself, but this time both teams contribute and get this one past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This one is played at Buffalo's Sahlen Field. This field is playing extremely small. The wind here is blowing out at about 10 mph, and we have very questionable pitching.

Kyle Hart was torched in his first start. He then looked some better in his second start, but he still didn't even complete 4 innings. The Boston Red Sox bullpen is a major weakness this year, and seeing them for a long time could help the over as well.

Toronto has a .377 wOBA at home so far this year. The Blue Jays have a very strong #1-#6 in the lineup. 

Boston has allowed 9 runs or more in 5 of their last 12 games.

Toronto's games in Buffalo this year have been extremely high scoring. This total is high, but it is high for a very good reason.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Kenta Maeda is a really good pitcher. I think the Dodgers didn't get enough out of him with their pitching coaches in the last few years. Minnesota is a really well coached staff, and the Twins have changed Maeda's pitching strategy a bit this year. It is working extremely well. Maeda has a 2.27 ERA and a 2.46 FIP. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a start this year. Maeda has walked only six batters in five starts this season.

Aaron Civale has been tremendous this year as well. His control is as good as anyone right now. Civale is walking less than one batter per nine innings. He has a 2.91 ERA and a 2.69 FIP on the year.

The Indians and Twins both have top five bullpens in the majors. The offenses here have been inconsistent at best. 

The under is 6-0 in the Twins last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 games with a total of 8.5 or lower. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 games between these two teams. A 15-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of the Day* The Oklahoma City Thunder got Luguentz Dort back before game two, and with Dort back in the lineup they have been able to put together a much better defensive plan against this Houston Rockets offense. 

With Dort as the primary defender, James Harden was 3/14 in game three. Dort rates out as the Thunder's best defensive player and their worst offensive player in the last couple games. He'll get a lot of minutes here because of how good he has done on Harden. Minutes for Dort are a positive for the under.

Clearly, Harden could have a big game at any point, but Dort is at least making him work very hard.

The average pace of 98.58 possessions in this series is pretty slow. It would take some very efficient offense to get above this total if the pace stays the same here. 

The last two games have finished at 209 points and then 208 points in regulation. I see this total as being inflated.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Angels send Dylan Bundy to the mound here. Bundy has one bad start this year (his last one), but overall he has been tremendous. Bundy has already pitched against the Oakland Athletics twice and he has gone 13 and 2/3 innings and allowed one run while walking only one batter and striking out 17.

Frankie Montas has one bad start this year as well (his last one). Overall, Montas has been solid. He has a great fastball and that can give hitters a hard time.

The Oakland lineup has only a .299 weighted on base average against Bundy. The Angels lineup has only a .298 wOBA against Montas.

This is a park where the park factor is in the botton 3 or 4 of the majors every year. It's a strong pitcher's park. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Oracle Park has been an absolute launching pad so far this year. This is a stadium that ranked dead last in park factor last year, but is in the top five in that statistic so far this year.

In the last 10 games played at Oracle, there hasn't been a game that has finished lower than 9 runs. Many of them have been far higher. Five of the last ten have finished with at least 13 runs scored. 

The Giants offense has been better than expected so far this year. San Francisco is much better against lefties than righties, and they'll face a questionable lefty here in Robbie Ray. 

Logan Webb has potential, but he hasn't pitched deep into games through his career, and this Giants bullpen may be the worst in baseball this year. 

Robbie Ray has an 8.59 ERA and a 7.69 FIP through five starts. He is walking nearly one batter per inning. He once again is giving up a lot of long balls as well.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Anthony DeSclafani was tipping his pitches in his last start and he was absolutely lit up. He will try to correct that here, but his past history against the Cardinals isn't good at all. This Cardinals lineup has a whopping .385 weighted on base average against Disco in 165 plate appearances. 

Dakota Hudson has been getting hit extremely hard this year. The average exit velocity he has given up this year is more than 94 mph (in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in baseball). Hudson has poor control and gives up a lot of hard contact. It's a really bad combination. The Reds hitters have a .393 wOBA against Hudson.

This is a low total for two pitchers with a lot of question marks. The Cardinals offense has struggled against lefties, but they have been solid against righties. The Reds lineup is much better now with Moustakas healthy once again.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves lineup isn't even close to what it was a week or two ago. They are missing Acuna, Markakis, and Albies. Those are some really important bats in this lineup. 

Aaron Nola has been dealing this year. Nola has a 2.05 ERA with a 2.27 FIP and a 1.91 xFIP. It hasn't been luck. Nola has an amazing 14.8% swinging strike rate so far this year. He has been pitching deep into games as well, and that has been thanks to his excellent control. 

Max Fried has been in great form as well. Fried has a 1.24 ERA and a 2.35 FIP. Fried is allowing far less hard contact so far this year, which is a great sign. 

The Phillies offense has been very good this year, but I do see them as due for some regression. This offense isn't a top five offense in the majors like they have looked so far this year.

The weather conditions are moderate in Atlanta now which is a positive as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Oracle Park is playing far differently this year than it has in previous seasons. Last year this park ranked dead last in park factor. This year it ranks fifth! The ball is flying out of here far more often than in the past.

Jose Suarez has a lot to prove as a major league starter. Suarez was a guy with a lot of hype, but he hasn't produced. Suarez threw 81 innings in the big leagues last year. He finished with a 7.11 ERA and a 6.72 FIP. Suarez had a 4.85 FIP and a 5.77 xFIP in Triple A as well. His command is poor and he gives up a lot of really hard contact. 

Kevin Gausman has thrown the ball pretty well this year, but the Angels are good against right handed pitching. Gausman also doesn't pitch very deep into games, and the Giants bullpen is dead last in the majors in xFIP and SIERA. This bullpen has been crushed many times.

The Giants offense is far better against lefties than righties so they are in a favorable split here. The Angels have a bottom ten bullpen as well and Suarez doesn't pitch deep into games at all either.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets ranked as the second slowest paced team in the regular season. Denver slows things down and grinds the game into a half court contest. Utah ranked 24th in the NBA in tempo as well, so they prefer to play slowly.

In game one between these two, the pace was only 96.45 possessions. Both teams shot the ball extremely well. Mitchell absolutely went off for the Jazz. The Nuggets backups shot the ball very well. 

There are a bunch of key offensive players out for both teams here. For the Jazz- Conley and Bogdonavic are key pieces. For the Nuggets- Harris and Barton are both important pieces. 

In the regular season these teams met three times. None of those three meetings saw a regulation score finishing higher than 210 points. 

The total here has been adjusted upward by 3 points from game one. The Nuggets shot 54% from long range in game one and Mitchell had 57 points for the Jazz in game one. I'll bet on regression to the mean.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Toronto Raptors won 134-110 over the Brooklyn Nets in game one of the series. That has led this total to jump all the way to 226.5. A five point adjustment is really extreme. 

Toronto averaged 1.327 points per possession in game one. Brooklyn averaged 1.078 points per possession. 

These two teams met four times in the regular season. The highest posted total was 224.5 (the others were all 218.5 or lower). In the four regular season meetings the Raptors averaged 1.089 points per possession while the Nets averaged 1.047 points per possession. Three of the four games went under this total and two of them went under by a large amount. 

The Raptors are elite on defense. The Nets aren't terrible on defense either, and they should do a better job guarding Fred Van Vleet in this one.

Toronto made 22/44 from 3 point range in game one. The fact they got ahead by so much early in the game made the overall pace of the game speed up. 

This is a big adjustment and I have to bet the under here. Playoff games mean a lot to professionals and I would expect stronger efforts on defense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox slugged 4 home runs in a row yesterday, and this offense appears ready to break out. Chicago is much better with Tim Anderson leading off, and he was injured for a while. He's back now and he is a great table setter for this team. Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez are both healthy now as well. There is a lot of power in the middle of this lineup.

The Detroit Tigers rank 2nd in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Tigers have a very right handed heavy lineup that should be able to continue to have success against southpaws. Detroit can't hit righties, but Gio Gonzalez is a subpar lefty who is near the end of his career. 

Matt Boyd has allowed a .381 wOBA to the White Sox. Boyd comes into this game in terrible form. He has yet to pitch more than 5 innings in a game this year. He has allowed 4 runs or more in every game. Boyd has allowed 7 runs in each of his last two starts (one against the White Sox).

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros offense is coming back to life in recent contests. The Astros scored nine runs in the first inning alone yesterday. Houston has scored 28 runs in their last four games. They got a big boost when Yordan Alvarez returned to the lineup on Friday night as well. Some people underrate how good Alvarez is, and I think he'll make a big difference.

Nick Margevicius starts here for the Mariners. He's a below average lefty, and I don't expect that to play well against this Houston lineup. Houston is 7th in weighted on base average in the majors against left handed pitching (only 21st against righties). Margevicius doesn't pitch deep into the game often either, and the Mariners have the second worst bullpen FIP in the majors.

Cristian Javier isn't a guy that pitches deep into the game very often for Houston either, and the Astros bullpen is extremely banged up right now. Seattle should get some scoring chances too.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies have a history of playing a lot of high scoring games against each other. I think this will be another of those high scoring contests. 

Antonio Senzatela has good numbers so far this year, but his long term track record doesn't make me think this is a true breakout. He allows a lot of very hard contact, and he doesn't miss many bats. That is a really bad combination, especially at Coors Field. He has a career WHIP at Coors Field of 1.471. This is a day game at hot Coors Field which helps the offense. Senzatela has a brutal 6.27 ERA in day games in his career. 

Luke Weaver hasn't had any command of his pitches this year. Weaver now walks into Coors Field to take on a red hot Rockies offense. Weaver gives up tons of long balls and the heat in a day game at Coors is a negative for him there as well.

Five of the last seven games between these two teams have gone to at least 12 runs.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Shane Bieber has been amazing so far this year. Bieber has been the best pitcher in the majors through three starts. Bieber has a 0.83 ERA and a 1.23 xFIP through those three starts. He is ringing up 14.5 batters per nine innings and is walking only 1.25 batters per nine innings. His control is as precise as anyone in baseball.

Lucas Giolito started the year out with a bad start, but he has bounced back really nicely in his last two outings. Indians hitters have a very low .241 weighted on base average against Giolito.

These guys get a very favorable home plate umpire draw here. Jeremy Rehak ranks in the top 5 in the majors in strikes called percentage and he'll give the edge far more than the average umpire.

The under is 6-0 in the Indians last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 as a road favorite. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. A 16-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jose Berrios is not the same pitcher on the road that he is at home. Berrios has had some very ugly road starts in the last couple years. He does have a nasty curveball, but he is allowing a very high barrel percentage rate and a lot of hard contact this year. The Royals have scored 25 runs in their last three games so they are swinging the bat well right now.

The Minnesota Twins arguably have the best offense in baseball. It is at least a top five offense. They'll face rookie Brady Singer. He has decent stuff, but hasn't faced a lineup this good yet and I think he'll struggle.

The temperature is in the low 90's for this one and a wind blowing out at about 15 mph will be blowing during this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Memphis Grizzlies have a lot to play for right now. There are a bunch of teams in the bubble right now that really have no reason to care much whether they win or lose. Memphis is not one of those teams. 

The Toronto Raptors defense has been number one in the NBA in their last four games. Toronto's help side defense and awareness on defense is unmatched in the NBA. I would think they would be up for this one since they were torched by the Celtics in their last game.

Memphis is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last four games The Grizzlies have some key pieces missing on offense too, so they have been inefficient offensively. 

The intensity should be high enough here and both teams will work hard on defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds start Anthony DeSclafani here, and I'm pretty high on DeSclafani overall. The Reds have arguably the best pitching coach in baseball in Derek Johnson and he really thinks the adjustments DeSclafani has made will move him forward nicely. 

Brett Anderson is an up and down lefty, but this Reds offense has been cold. They are 22nd in wOBA against lefties and they have scored 4 runs or less in seven of their last eight games. 

The Brewers are without Ryan Braun now. Christian Yelich is in a major slump. The Reds have been without Mike Moustakas and he is questionable for this one. 

Ben May is the home plate umpire here, and May is clearly an under umpire. He ranks in the top 8 in strikes called in my umpire database. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana Pacers coaching staff talked about their want to play at a quicker tempo without Domantas Sabonis (out with an injury). They have done that in their first few games in the restart. This is a different team than we saw earlier this year. T.J. Warren is thriving in this faster pace offense, and Warren has a chance to light up his old team here. He should have a big game. 

Phoenix is playing among the fastest teams in the league. The Suns have been shooting the ball really well of late, and Ayton has been playing well on the inside. Devin Booker is a star and the offensive pieces around him are better than many believe.

In the last three games, these teams rank 4th and 8th in offensive efficiency in the NBA. The pace will be there, and both of these teams are capable of hitting 120 here. I think this total should get to at least the mid 230's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their 11 games so far this year. Now, they are without Yoenis Cespedes. Also, on Monday they had a bunch of key players get hurt during the game and need to be pulled. Robinson Cano, Jeff McNeil, and Amed Rosario are all questionable at best for this contest. The lineup is bad even with them and it will be much worse if one or two of these guys are sitting out.

Patrick Corbin has absolutely shut down stuff, andh e has been at his best when pitching at home. 

The Nationals have a much weaker lineup than a year ago. Anthony Rendon being out really hurts the middle of this order. It also hurts a lot that Juan Soto is still out. They are missing their stars. 

This is a high number for this matchup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz offense has been a mess in the first couple games in the NBA restart. That was against a terrible New Orleans defense and a decent Oklahoma City defense. Now, they have to play a Lakers team that ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Jazz are doing too much one on one offense and not moving the ball.

The first two games between these teams were totaled at 216.5 and 212.5. The games finished with 181 points and 217 points. This total has been adjusted upward quite a bit. These are two top ten defenses.

The under is 11-5 in the Lakers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Johnny Cueto isn't the pitcher he once was. Cueto's average fastball is nearly 3 mils per hour slower than it was five years ago. He is giving up far more hard contact. Now, he goes in to face a solid lineup at Coors Field. It's not an easy task.

Chi Chi Gonzalez is a very bad pitcher. His WHIP at Coors Field is 1.60. Gonzalez has poor control and also gives up a lot of long balls.

Scott Oberg was one of the few good relievers the Rockies have. Colorado is likely to need their bullpen here and I'm not confident in their ability to get outs. The Giants no longer have a good bullpen as they have had in most recent seasons. 

I see both teams getting a lot of scoring chances.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The home plate umpire for this game will be Alfonso Marquez. Marquez is the single best "over" umpire in the game today. I keep a database of all the umpires in the majors and Marquez has called the least percentage of pitches a strike of any umpire in the majors in the last five years. The over was 25-8 in Marquez's games behind home plate last year.

Josh James starts this game for the Houston Astros. James can't throw more than about 4 innings even on a good day, and the Astros bullpen is badly banged up right now. James has had major trouble finding the strike zone in his young career. James had a walk rate of 5.17 walks per nine innings last year. He walked 5 batters in just three innings in his first start this year.

Ohtani gets the start for the Angels and he has great stuff, but he also has struggled to control his pitches. He has walked almost 4 batters per nine innings in his career in the majors thus far.

Both of these guys should be hurt by Marquez's strike zone. The Astros bullpen is normally strong, but they are injured now. The Angels bullpen is a major problem. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets have played twice this year. The first game was a 137-123 contest. The second meeting was a 128-121 final. The posted total in the first game was 230 points. The posted total in the second game was 237-238 points depending on the sportsbook. Here, we have a total of 8 or 9 points lower than that despite the fact that both games sailed over the posted total.

This is a neutral court and that accounts for a move down in the total to a degree, but it can't be adjusted by 8 or 9 points. These are the top two efficiency offenses in the NBA. The two teams both rank just below average in defensive efficiency. 

Both teams have shot the ball pretty well in their exhibition games here at Disney. The Rockets make a living at the line as well.

I don't generally like to bet many overs on neutral courts, but this is a huge adjustment. The sharp money is on the over here, and I agree.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians pitching staff is a good one and their bullpen is still at least slightly above average. Plesac is a good fifth starter. The White Sox lineup has potential, but they haven't been putting together good at bats in recent games. 

Lucas Giolito had an ugly first start, but I think a lot of guys are going to have ugly starts against the Minnesota Twins this year. Giolito has allowed Indians hitters to have only a .250 OBP in his career against them. The White Sox have an upgraded bullpen this year as well.

This is a very high total for a game without the wind blowing out at Progressive Field. The temperature will be relatively warm, but nothing that extreme. The Indians have only had one game go over 8 runs so far this year. 

The under is 47-22-1 in the Indians last 70 games against a right handed starting pitcher.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Garrett Richards is a solid pitcher and he is backed by what might be the best bullpen in baseball. The Padres have all kinds of depth in the bullpen and at the first sign of trouble this year they will likely be pulling their starter to get to their biggest strength.

Zac Gallen is a breakout candidate for this year. Gallen has great swing and miss stuff. The Padres have a lot of free swingers on their team. The DBacks don't have a shut down bullpen, but it is clearly improved from a couple years ago.

Petco Park is still one of the best pitchers parks in the majors. Mark Ripperger is behind the dish here and he has some great peripheral stats that show he is a solid under umpire.

Both of these lineups have some solid hitters, but the bottom of the order is very weak on both of these teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wade LeBlanc is nearly 36 years old and his career is on the decline. LeBlanc was able to make a decent career largely thanks to pitching in favorable ballparks. His stuff isn't very good. 

Ryan Weber hasn't done anything to show he can consistently be decent. Weber had a 4.50 ERA and a 4.59 FIP in Triple A last year. He had a 5.06 ERA two years ago in the big leagues and a 5.09 ERA last year. 

The weather matters a lot at Fenway Park. This is a park where with the wind blowing out and hot temperatures the over has done tremendously in the past few years. For this one we have a forecast of 90 degrees and a wind out 12 mph or so during the game.

Alan Porter is the home plate umpire and his strikes called percentage is in the bottom 5% of home plate umpires in the last five years. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* While we are at the start of the MLB season, we are right in the middle of the summer. With a high temperature of 90 degrees and wind blowing out a bit in Cincinnati here, these are the conditions where Great American Ballpark plays very small.

Matt Boyd had a nice season last year, but he has one major problem.. the long ball. This new Cincinnati Reds offense has a lot more power than last year's team had. Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas were great adds. They join Eugenio Suarez to create a really powerful middle of the order (Votto should set the table for them well this year too). 

Neither of these bullpens are dominant, and on the whole a total of 8.5 at GABP is low for this time of the year.

Additionally, the ball has really been carrying well in exhibition games and in the first couple games last night. It seems the baseball is once again going to be favorable for the hitters.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners rank 80th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Marshall ranks 100th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The two teams are 276th and 211th in offensive efficiency. 

These two teams met once during the regular season and the final was 71-61. 

Marshall is a very fast paced team, but they aren't efficient on offense this year like they were a year ago with Jon Elmore leading the way. This Thundering Herd team has a lot of length on the inside and they have multiple shot blockers.

UTEP played games far under this total during the regular season. In UTEP's last 12 games of the season, only one game went over 136 points.

This is played at Frisco Texas in the football practice facility. The under is 14-8 in games played here.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs are a defensive-minded team. They are third in Conference USA in defensive efficiency. They also rank 12th in CUSA in tempo, so they want to slow the game down as much as possible.

The under is 14-8 in the games played at Ford Center at the Star in Frisco. This is a strange setup where multiple games are going on at once in a football practice facility. I think this is likely going to continue to be helpful for the under.

Old Dominion has played five games at Frisco in the last two years. Not a single game of Old Dominion's has finished higher than 120 total points.

Florida Atlantic is much better on defense than offense. Though they prefer to play quickly, they have had some very low scoring games this year. 

I think this line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*Note- this line has moved some since I initially played this on Tuesday afternoon. I would play this for 5 stars down to 130. This would be a 4 star play for me at 129.5 or lower. Thank you* 

*3 Star Play Under* The under is 46-37 in the last 83 games played at Bridgestone Arena. This is a hockey arena (Nashville Predators) and the shooting backdrop is a difficult one. 

These are two teams who are accustomed to playing in big arenas, but I don't think there will be many people at this game. A big venue with a small amount of people at the game tilts things toward the under in the long run.

Ole Miss is third in the SEC in defensive efficiency. The Rebels have turned the ball over quite a bit on offense this season. 

Georgia plays quickly, but they have had major turnover problems on offense. The Bulldogs are too reliant on one player. 

In the regular season these two teams met and the final was 70-60. This game means more to both teams in the one and done tournament format.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks and Idaho State Bengals square off at Century Link Arena in Boise on Wednesday afternoon. Century Link has been a good under venue and these two teams are both questionable on offense. This is an early game during the week at a venue far bigger than these kids are accustomed to playing in. 

Neutral site games have been good to under bettors especially in smaller conferences when they play in a bigger venue. There won't be many people at this game, and it creates a strange environment.

These teams aren't very good, and seeing a sloppy game here should come as no surprise. One thing both teams have done this year is defend without fouling, so I'll hope to avoid a ref show in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Idaho is a weak team and they are a big underdog here for a reason. Southern Utah has the best defense in the Big Sky. The Thunderbirds have been able to lock down on that end a lot this year.

In games with bigger spreads at a neutral site, the under has been a good play in the long run.

This game is at Century Link Arena. This has been a good under venue and these two teams are both questionable on offense. This is an early game during the week at a venue far bigger than these kids are accustomed to playing in. 

Neutral site games have been good to under bettors especially in smaller conferences when they play in a bigger venue. There won't be many people at this game, and it creates a strange environment.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is the Summit League final. This tournament has been great to under bettors, and I'm going to take the under again here. This is a big venue where the shooting backdrop is difficult. 

Additionally, this game is for a trip to the NCAA Tournament. When there is more on the line in the final game of these tournaments, in the long run it has been very helpful to the under.

Both of these teams are great at holding the opposition to one shot, and neither of these teams have gotten to the free throw line much this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison rank first in the Summit League in defensive efficiency. It's no secret that this league is offensive minded on the whole, but in the Summit League Conference Tournament the under has done really well in recent years.

This tournament is held at Denny Sanford Premier Center. This has been a good under venue. It is larger than most of these teams are accustomed to playing in. Additionally, these games clearly mean more to the teams than their regular season games have. That typically means the game slows down a bit and the defenses work a little harder. 

Both games in the regular season between these two teams went narrowly over this posted total. In both of those games both teams shot the ball well. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the shooting percentages tick down a bit in a game of this magnitude. The winner of this game will play tomorrow night for a NCAA Tournament spot.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a Summit League tournament contest at Denny Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls. This is a gym that has proven very good to under bettors in recent years. 

The Summit League has a lot of high scoring contests in the regular season because the teams shoot a high percentage and don't play much defense. That creates inflated numbers in the conference tournament and most teams are going to put in more effort on defense in a win or go home scenario.

The first two meetings between these two were comfortably under this number. I like the under again here.

North Dakota needs to slow the game down and I think they'll do it here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks are banged up right now. Kristaps Porzingis is listed as questionable here. Seth Curry is out of the lineup. Tim Hardaway Jr. is listed as doubtful. Luka Doncic is playing through a minor injury. 

The Indiana Pacers are injured even more badly. Malcolm Brogdon is out with a significant injury. Victor Oladipo is questionable as he edges back onto the floor. Doug McDermott is doubtful with an injury. Jeremy Lamb is out for the season with an injury.

Sunday's have been the best day for unders in the NBA in the past decade, and it isn't even close. Today, things are even a bit more unique from a scheduling standpoint since the clocks moved forward.

The under is 39-19-1 in the Pacers last 59 road games vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a Summit League tournament contest at Denny Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls. This is a gym that has proven very good to under bettors in recent years. 

The Summit League has a lot of high scoring contests in the regular season because the teams shoot a high percentage and don't play much defense. That creates inflated numbers in the conference tournament and most teams are going to put in more effort on defense in a win or go home scenario.

Omaha has slowed their pace down this year. The two regular season meetings between these two teams were 138 and 141 points. This game means more and we are in a venue that is favorable to the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Late in the regular season in the NBA, taking the under when two good teams play each other has been a strong angle. Both of these teams have been very good this year. Everyone knew the Celtics would be very good. The Thunder have been better than anyone could have imagined.

Sunday's have been the best day for unders in the NBA in the past decade, and it isn't even close. Today, things are even a bit more unique from a scheduling standpoint since the clocks moved forward.

The under is 42-17-1 in the Thunder's last 60 games as an underdog. They have tended to slow the pace when playing against a stronger team.

The under is also 22-10 in the Celtics last 32 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is the final game of the regular season for both of these teams. They don't have anything important to play for. These late season regular season games between two mediocre teams have trended strongly toward the over in the past. The Huskies have been playing noticeably quicker in recent games, and Tulane is doing more trapping and forcing steals and trying to score in the open floor.

Both teams have been very aggressive on the offensive glass, and the AAC refs have a quick whistle. I see a lot of free throw attempts in this contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Am I excited to bet an under between these two teams? Of course not. I'll do it in this situation and at this price point though. Minnesota and New Orleans play an early afternoon game on Sunday after the clocks move forward on Saturday night. Sunday afternoon unders have been very good in the long run in the NBA, and that has been especially true in the Western Conference. In this spot, the teams got an hour less rest and have their body clock thrown off even more than normal.

This is one of the highest totals you will ever see in the NBA. If you get one below average scoring quarter here it should keep the game under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Clippers and Lakers is a great showdown on Sunday afternoon in LA. Sunday afternoon unders have been very good in the long run in the NBA, and that has been especially true in the Western Conference. In this spot, the teams got an hour less rest and have their body clock thrown off even more than normal. This is a 12:30 local start time after a short night. 

Both of these teams have been excellent on defense in recent contests. I think they'll both be plenty motivated for this high profile showdown on Sunday afternoon. Effort shouldn't be lacking on the defensive end.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both of these teams are excellent defensively. While Memphis has serious turnover problems on offense, the Tigers are 1st in effective field goal percentage defense this year. They are 154th in effective field goal percentage offense.

Houston ranks 5th in effective field goal percentage defense on the year. The Cougars rank 230th in effective field goal percentage offense. 

The shots in this game should be contested very well. Neither of these teams let their opponents near the hoop much at all.

This is an important game for both teams and I'll look for a strong defensive effort in an early Sunday afternoon contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fort Wayne Mastodons are one of the rare teams in the Summit League that is very weak on the offensive end and pretty good on the defensive end. Fort Wayne averaged only 0.969 points per possession in the conference this season. They were the third best defense in the Summit League.

South Dakota State slowed their pace down as the season moved along. The Jackrabbits are clearly the better team here, but they are happy to get a lead and keep the pace slower.

The two regular season meetings stayed under this posted total. This game is played at a venue where the under is 33-23 in the last 56 games played here. I think this game is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs and USF Bulls play in a meaningless final regular season game on Saturday evening. These two played a 82-64 game on January 1st. 

SMU ranks first in the American Athletic Conference in offensive efficiency. The Mustangs are a really good offensive team with Kendric Davis on the floor. SMU is able to get to the basket often, and USF doesn't have much shot blocking ability.

USF gets quite a few points from steals quick transition opportunities. SMU is susceptible to this, and I think that shows up in a game like this one.

USF is drawing fouls at a very high rate on their home floor. This is a low number for a final regular season contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners and Marshall Thundering Herd play on Saturday afternoon. Both of these teams are extremely fast paced teams who want a track meet whenever they can get it. 

The first game between these two was a track meet, but the shooting numbers were horrendous. In fact, UTSA won despite shooting 6/28 from 3 point range. Marshall was a putrid 3/26 from 3 point range. 

This is the final game of the regular season for both teams and these games have trended toward the over in the past decade. 

Look for more of the shots to fall on Saturday.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins and USC Trojans play in a very important rivalry game on Saturday afternoon. Both teams have been playing great basketball of late. Both teams are likely in the field right now. As of a month ago, neither of these teams would have been in the NCAA Tournament.

UCLA slows the game down and they are turning into a normal Mick Cronin team who really defends well and scraps. 

USC has been mixing up their defenses, and Andy Enfield's team is really playing well on the defensive end. The Trojans should be able to bother the Bruins and contest their jumpers.

Two motivated teams in their final regular season game of the year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators have slowed their pace down in their last five contests. They haven't played a single game in that stretch to anything faster than 65 possessions. 

Florida scored only 59 points at Kentucky in their recent meeting, and the Gators put up only 58 against Tennessee. 

Kentucky isn't quite as dominant on defense as they have been in some recent seasons, but they still have the #2 ranked defense in the SEC. The Wildcats are playing at a slightly slower than average tempo.

Florida is a good team, but they have been disappointing on the whole this year. They need a big win. Kentucky and Florida don't like each other and I see another strong defensive game that is played in the halfcourt.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Milwaukee has been the best defense in the league all year, and it hasn't been close. The Bucks have played their best defense of the season in the last few weeks though. They are dominating on that end of the floor.

Milwaukee is giving up only 0.984 points per possession in their last 10 games. That's first in the NBA by a wide margin. Who is second in defensive efficiency in that same period? The Lakers. The Lakers are allowing 1.042 points per possession during that time.

The Lakers are 12th in offensive efficiency during that time. The Bucks are 21st on offense in those games.

This is a late season NBA game between two very good teams, and I think both teams will show up a bit more motivated than in a normal contest. On the whole that is a good thing for the under.

It should be a really good one here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one is played at Enterprise Center where unders have completely dominated in general. This is a hockey arena with bad sight lines for shooters. Of course there will be individual games where teams shoot well, but on the whole this is clearly a great venue for unders. The under is 52-26 at this venue when the total is 124.5 or higher.

Indiana State is good at controlling the pace. The Sycamores are 313th in average possession length in the country. Missouri State has sped up this year, but Indiana State did a nice job slowing them down in both regular season meetings.

Both teams have a FTA/FGA of less than 30% so a foul fest doesn't look likely unless we get a ref show.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Dons and Loyola Marymount Lions just played a game to 136 points where both teams shot the ball far better than normal. Now they go play on a neutral court in a win or go home scenario. I think the defenses will be better and the pace will stay very slow.

San Francisco has gradually slowed their tempo throughout the year, and Marymount is one of the 10 slowest paced teams in the country. The first meeting between these two was 61-53 and played to a pace of just 57 possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Citadel has been a bit of a different team than they were in past seasons. The Citadel still plays very quickly, but they have been far less efficient on offense this season. They are 313th in offensive efficiency last year. They were 134th last season. 

Wofford rated 4th in the Southern Conference in defensive efficiency. Wofford also ranked ninth in overall tempo. They'll work to slow this game down. 

This is a neutral site game and it is the first game of the conference tournament for both of these teams. Neutral site games with a favorite of 6 points or more and a total of 131.5 or higher have gone 56.9% to the under since 2005. 

I'll look for Wofford to get a lead here and keep things under control.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This one is played at Enterprise Center where unders have completely dominated in general. This is a hockey arena with bad sight lines for shooters. Of course there will be individual games where teams shoot well, but on the whole this is clearly a great venue for unders. The under is 52-26 at this venue when the total is 124.5 or higher.

Loyola is a defense first team, and Valpo is a poor shooting team who struggles to get to the free throw line.

Valpo struggled badly shooting it last night against lowly Evansville, and now they must play the best defense in the conference.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament has seen a bunch of very low scoring games over the last few years. Enterprise Center is arguably the best under gym in the country. These teams aren't accustomed to playing in such a big venue.

Bradley has been good on offense down the stretch, but the Braves were inconsistent away from home on offense. 

Southern Illinois works very hard to slow the game down. This is an afternoon tip time during the week and it is both teams first game at Arch Madness in St. Louis. 

Look for a slow pace here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* In Portland State's last 13 games, the over has cashed on this number (154) 10 times. The under has cashed only twice. There was one tie. Portland State has sped up their tempo as the season has gone on, and their offense has become much more efficient.

Portland State has scored 87 points or more in four straight games. The Vikings have only scored less than 81 points once in their last nine games. 

Northern Arizona's offense is much more efficient this year than it was last year. 

The last 3 meetings between these two teams have finished with 157, 197, and 166 total points.

This is a late season regular game in the Big Sky Conference, where very little defense is played. Both teams should get a lot of second chance points here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers host the Wichita State Shockers in a game between two teams who are on the bubble. Both teams need this game. Late in the regular season I like to look for games between two teams who have a lot to play for if I am taking unders. That is the case in this game.

Memphis is 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Wichita State is 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. These teams are 216th and 120th in the nation in offensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams do a good job protecting the basket. Neither team has been particularly good at shooting the 3 point shot either.

I expect some solid defense to be played here.

Take the under.