*4 Star Play Under* New Mexico State is 347th in average length of possession (353 teams). The Aggies take a bunch of time off the shot clock. New Mexico State's first two games in this tournament have had 120 points in regulation and 110 points. They are up against George Mason, who is 284th in the nation in tempo. 

George Mason is 185th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 71st in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a team that is much better on defense than offense.

New Mexico State always ranks highly in defense as well.

This game is at a neutral site and both teams are playing for the 3rd straight day. A clear plus for the under. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have drastically slowed their tempo of late. It has been hard for the oddsmakers to keep up with how much slower this team is playing. This team was top ten in tempo in the first couple weeks of the season. In the past 10 games, they rank as the second slowest paced team in the NBA. 

Who is the slowest paced team in the NBA in past 10 games? The Sacramento Kings. Sacramento has been playing fairly slow all year, but they have gotten slightly slower in the last few weeks.

Philadelphia is only 15th best in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Sacramento is only 19th best in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Kings are 21st in defensive efficiency for the season, though they have improved in the last few games. The 76ers rank 9th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

I see this being a slow paced battle. It would take some very good shooting numbers to get this one over the total if the pace is what I expect it will be here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northern Illinois hosts Western Michigan for this Tuesday MACtion contest. Western Michigan has been the most consistent team in the MAC this year. The Broncos have a good offense and a weaker defense. Northern Illinois has been a disappointment in general this year. The Huskies are 98th in the nation in yards per play.

Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow tempo. Western Michigan ranks 75th out of 130 in tempo. Northern Illinois is 98th in tempo. 

The weather here is the primary reason for this play. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds with gusts of 35 mph during the game. Rain is expected as well throughout the game. A clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers have played every single one of their games under this posted total. The Tigers have an excellent defense and a weak offense. Missouri is also good at controlling the pace of the game.

Oklahoma likes to play quickly, but the Sooners can go through scoring droughts at times. On the other end, Oklahoma is excellent defensively. Oklahoma should make life very difficult for the Missouri offense.

This is a neutral site game and those have done excellent toward the under early in the season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is played at the Hard Rock Riviera where the under is 27-14 in games played there. This is known as an under gym. Neutral site games early in the season have been good under bets in the long term. 

South Carolina does like to play fast, but they are far better on defense than offense. Wichita State works hard to slow down the tempo of the game. Wichita State is much better on defense than offense. 

4 of Wichita State's 5 games have stayed under this total, and none of those games have been on neutral courts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both Boston University and Northern Colorado prefer to play at a slow pace. Boston ranks 240th in overall tempo. Northern Colorado ranks 292nd in overall tempo. I wouldn't expect either team to be pushing pace here.

The Hard Rock Riviera in Mexico has been a really good under venue in the past. This is these teams first games in this facility, and I think that could lead to lower than average shooting numbers. 

Northern Colorado is a defense first team, and I would expect them to try to keep most of their games low scoring this year since they lost so much from last year. 

I think this is several points too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies play at the 347th quickest tempo out of 353 teams. They'll work hard to slow the game down. They are also a very good defensive team. USF is an average paced team, but they turn the ball over a bunch on offense and force a bunch of turnovers on defense. They have consistently had very low scoring games.

USF has only had one game so far this year that has gone over this very low total. 

This game is played in the Cayman Islands at a gym that is noted to be good for the under.

I expect a low scoring game here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins are a completely different team than last year. Mick Cronin's style of play is far different than what this program has been accustomed to. Cronin is a defensive-minded coach who wants to slow the game down and win low scoring battles. UCLA has already played 4 of their 5 games under this posted total.

BYU has slowed their tempo down drastically so far this year too. They were 54th quickest in average possession length last year. They rank 229th so far this year. BYU has a new coach in Mark Pope also.

I think both defenses will put forth a good effort in this one. 

This is a neutral site game which is a clear positive for the under. Early season neutral site contests have been very strong in the past 15 years. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors host the Philadelphia 76ers in a game that should have both teams motivated tonight. The Raptors edged the 76ers in the playoffs last year, and you know both teams remember that series very well.

I've been tracking the 76ers very closely of late. Philadelphia has clearly decided to slow down their tempo. They were ranking in the top ten in the NBA in tempo the first couple weeks of the season. If we look at only their last 10 games, the 76ers rank 26th in the NBA in tempo. A drastic slowdown. 

Toronto plays near the league average in tempo. The Raptors are 9th in defensive efficiency on the year. The 76ers are 8th in defensive efficiency. 

The Raptors rank 7th in the NBA in offensive efficiency, while the 76ers rank 13th. 

This is a big game for both teams, and the recent tempo of the 76ers makes me think they try to keep this pace slow. 

The under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Butler Bulldogs and Missouri Tigers meet at the Sprint Center in Kansas City tonight. Butler and Missouri are both teams who have a long history of wanting to slow the pace down and win low scoring games.

Missouri is a defensive-minded team under Coach Cuonzo Martin. They are 6th in the nation in defensive efficiency so far this year. Butler ranks 29th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Missouri ranks 238th in pace (average possession length) and Butler ranks 336th. I would expect a very slow tempo in this game.

Missouri's contest against Xavier was 51-51 at the end of regulation. Butler's big game against Minnesota finished at 120 points.

A neutral site helps the under and we have a neutral court here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs lost some great players from last year's team. Yale pushed the tempo a lot more than normal last year. They are now slowing things down a lot more and trying to win with defense. Yale is 286th quickest (out of 353) in average possession length this year. They were 52nd last year. A huge slowdown. Yale is 9th in effective field goal percentage defense this year, so they have been terrific on defense.

Western Michigan has played two good defenses this year. They scored 58 points on Ole Miss and 63 points on Oklahoma State. The Broncos don't have enough scoring options to consistently put up a big number against quality defenses.

This game is played at HP Fieldhouse in Florida. This has consistently been a good under venue. An early start for two teams a long way from home as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies rank 345th in average possession length so far this year. There are 353 teams in the country. Clearly, the Aggies are intentionally slowing games down this year. Chris Jans' team has been excellent on defense the last two years. Their numbers aren't good so far this year, but they have played some really good offenses. Look for the Aggies to be solid on defense again.

Colorado State typically plays to the pace of their opponents. The Rams have played four terrible defenses and one great one (Duke). New Mexico State obviously isn't Duke defensively, but they should make Colorado State work.

This game is played at 11 am eastern in the Cayman Islands. This is a really long way from home for these two teams and a very early start on the body clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions are 349th in the country in tempo. Loyola is using nearly 21 seconds of the shot clock on average, so this is a team that is really stalling. Their last game against Air Force was played to an extremely slow 58 possessions. 

Loyola Marymount was expected to be a team that struggled offensively this year. The Lions have been better than expected so far this year. Still, as I look at who they have played I wonder if that has made the Lions offense look better than they really are this season. They have yet to play a team ranked any higher than 200th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense.

Duquesne ranks 86th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Dukes have slowed their tempo down quite a bit from a year ago. Duquesne is coached by Keith Dambrot, and he is known as a good defensive mind. 

This is a neutral site game and early season neutral contests have been strong to the under in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans offense has been significantly better with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback vs. Marcus Mariota. Mariota wasn't taking enough chances, and he was holding onto the football too long. The Titans have scored 28.75 points per game in their last four contests. The running game has been solid all along, but now opposing defenses have to respect their downfield passing attack. The Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has been a big problem this year, and I expect the Titans to take advantage of that here.

The Titans defense has been solid this year, but they haven't faced that many strong offenses. The Titans have still allowed a lot of big plays. Tennessee has given up 9 plays of 30 yards or more (23rd in the NFL). 

Jacksonville has allowed 12 plays of 30 yards or more (30th in the NFL). The Titans are far more capable of taking advantage and getting those big plays than they have been in the past. 

The weather looks good for this game and the total is set very low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns haven't played a below average defense all season thus far. It's pretty amazing to think about that this deep in the season that would be the case, but the Browns offense has been up against so far this year. That changes here when they face one of the two or three worst defenses in the NFL in the Miami Dolphins.

Baker Mayfield has slowly started to look a bit better. The Browns offense is pretty healthy right now, and the Dolphins secondary is banged up and is a big weakness. The Browns running game has been solid all year.

Miami's offensive stats are skewed for the season. The Dolphins were horrible without Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. That's not to say that they are great with him, but they are much better than they were with Rosen at quarterback. Fitzpatrick can be a positive for the over for two reasons. He takes a lot of chances and can get big plays for his team. He can also create big plays for the other team in the form of picks that create a short field.

With the Browns without Garrett their pass rush is much weaker than normal. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* San Diego State hasn't seen a single game finish above 48 total points so far this year. I fully understand that they are playing a Hawaii team who is capable of playing very high scoring games here, but I have to take the under in a San Diego State game with a line set this high.

San Diego State's running game isn't even close to what it was a couple years ago. Washington is banged up in the backfield, and the offensive line isn't very good. Ryan Agnew is a clear weakness at quarterback. The Aztecs don't have good weapon on the outside either. 

The Aztecs still have a good defense though, and they have been good at preventing big plays.

Hawaii's offense is all about explosive plays, but I think they'll find those harder to come by this week. Hawaii only plays at the 85th rated tempo out of 130 in the country, so they play much slower on offense than most realize.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stetson Hatters are 332nd in the nation in tempo. First year coach Donnie Jones has this team stalling as much as possible. They played a 60-55 very slow paced game against Iona yesterday. Iona is normally a very fast paced team.

Monmouth plays fairly fast, but they aren't efficient on offense. The Hawks are 276th in offensive efficiency in the country. Stetson is 313th in offensive efficiency in the country.

HP Field House is a neutral site host for this game. The under is 17-9 in the last 26 games played at this venue.

I think this game is lined a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Arizona State is likely to want to slow the pace down here and keep this a low scoring game. I believe they will know that gives them a better chance in this contest. The Sun Devils offense hasn't been very explosive this year. Arizona State has only 39 plays of 20 yards or more (105th in the nation). 

Oregon's defense has been really good all year. The Ducks rank 9th in yards per play allowed. Oregon ranks 4th in opponents QBR rating allowed. Arizona State's run offense has been really weak all year. It's hard to see Arizona State having too much offensive success in this game.

Oregon's offense has been very inconsistent this season. The Ducks have had several key injuries on offense. 

Arizona State has allowed just 12 plays of 30 yards or more all year (11th best in country). Oregon has allowed only 8 plays of 30 yards or more all year (2nd best in country). I like defenses who prevent big plays when looking for an under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers offense has been awful the last four games. First, they scored only 14 points in a loss to the hapless Vanderbilt Commodores. Missouri then followed it up by scoring 7 points at Kentucky. Kentucky is a decent defense, but they aren't great. Missouri was then shut out by Georgia and held to 6 points by Florida. The Tigers have scored a total of 27 points in their last four contests. They have only one touchdown in their last three games.

Tennessee's defense has been very solid this year. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, this is a defense that I rate as a top 30 defense. The Volunteers aren't likely to give up many big plays here.

Missouri's defense has been excellent this year. The Tigers rank 14th in yards per play allowed. Tennessee's offense is 91st in yards per play on the season.

I think this is a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Desmond Ridder is playing banged up right now, and it is making Cincinnati a more predictable team. Temple is a defense that is due for positive regression. All year Temple has been much better in yards per play allowed than points per game allowed. This is a team with a very solid front seven on defense. 

Cincinnati wants to play slowly and eat up time. The Bearcats weren't particularly good at getting big gainers even with Ridder healthy, but they have gotten worse in that area with him at less than 100% percent.

Temple's offense ranks 11th in the conference in yards per play. They have very little running game. They also lack a trustworthy quarterback.

I see a lower scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Riverside Highlanders are stalling in a way I haven't seen before. UC Riverside is using a whopping 22.5 seconds of the shot clock on average. That is nearly one second per possession slower than the second slowest team out of 353 in the nation. For example, Virginia is using 21.1 seconds per possession, and they have often been thought of as a team that is the slowest in the country.

Denver prefers to play slowly as well. Denver is 283rd in tempo so far this year. Denver has played against some pretty fast paced opponents so far this year, but that will change on Saturday against UC Riverside.

With the tempo I expect this game to be played at, it would take some very good shooting numbers to get this one past the total.

UC Riverside's first four games against Division I opponents have finished with this many total points: 113 points, 109 points, 111 points, and 109 points. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs have proven to be a great team led by an amazing defense and solid running game. Georgia plays very slowly. The Bulldogs are 122nd in the nation in tempo. With a lead, Georgia has been more than willing to just run the ball up the middle and burn up the clock. They are a decent sized favorite here, so they are expected to be playing in the lead during this game. That's a positive for the under.

Texas A&M's offense has been a disappointment this year. They are 6th in the SEC in ypc, but Georgia is first in ypc allowed. Kellen Mond has been disappointing this year, and he doesn't have receivers who break many big plays.

The weather is a factor here. Georgia's field is a grass field that can get sloppy in rainstorms. There is heavy rain expected before this game and showers during the game. Winds of 10-15 mph will be blowing during the game too. 

I see both teams being conservative in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green expect to have Mason Fine back under center here. Fine is the best quarterback in Conference USA. Fine should be able to find a lot of holes in this Rice secondary. Rice has been pretty good at stopping the run this year, but their secondary just isn't good enough. North Texas has the quarterback and the receivers to make them pay.

Rice has started to show some more offense in recent weeks. The Owls are now up against one of the weakest defenses in the conference. The Mean Green have been giving up scores by the bunches. 

This total is set several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* We have 2 good defenses in this matchup.  VT ranks 30th and Pitt ranks 7th in yards-per-play. VT ranks 31st and Pitt ranks 6th in yard-per-rush. VT ranks 39th and Pitt ranks 14th in yard-per-attempt. Pitt also leads the nation with 45 sacks and VT ranks 12th in the same category. Both defense also rank in the top 25 of red zone scoring percentage..

*3 Star Play Over* The biggest weakness of this Notre Dame team this year is their rushing defense. We saw it against Michigan in a big way. It also has showed up in some of their other games. Notre Dame ranks only 55th in yards per carry allowed. The Fighting Irish now go up against a Boston College offense that has gotten a bunch of big gainers on the ground this year. 

Boston College has scored 89 points in their last two games. Their problem is they don't have any defense. Boston College has allowed more than 40 points in three games already this year. The Eagles are 117th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Notre Dame ranks 38th in pace of play. The Fighting Irish will get plenty of chances to score here. Boston College ranks 4th in tempo. The Eagles should be able to score their fair share as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes have completely changed the way they play. James Madison was 313th in average possession length last year, so they were a very slow team (1st being the quickest and 353rd the slowest). 

Where do they rank so far this year? James Madison is 2nd in the country. Coach Rowe said in the offseason that they wanted to completely change the way they play and they have followed through on that. 

New Hampshire has played to the pace of their opponent so far this year. New Hampshire is likely to be behind, so they won't be able to slow things down much here.

I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough based on the new tempo James Madison is playing at this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Ohio State's offense has been tremendous this year with Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins giving the team two great runners in the backfield. The offensive line has been far better than anyone could have imagined. Ohio State has excellent receivers too. Penn State has been victimized by good passing attacks the last couple weeks. I think Ohio State can do damage there and the screen game with Dobbins could give Penn State fits as well.

Ohio State's defense has been very good this year, but they haven't had to play too many good offenses. The Buckeyes will likely give up some explosive plays against a Penn State offense that takes a lot of chances.

This total was set under several key totals numbers. Both teams play quickly and I see this line as a solid value.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes ran up the score on Mississippi Valley State, and that has made their totals since then too high. Utah isn't going to be able to score 143 points or even close to that on anyone else the rest of the season. Utah plays relatively quickly, but I don't expect them to stay as fast as they are right now in the tempo rankings. They played abnormally fast in that one game against Mississippi Valley State. Their games since have been exactly at an average tempo.

Ohio is going to be working hard to slow down the pace in this game. The Bobcats have had major trouble with turning over the basketball so far this year on offense. Ohio doesn't have great athleticism and they don't want to get into track meets. The Bobcats do have a very defensive-minded coach in Jeff Boals.

This is at a neutral site which is a positive for the under. Shooting numbers tend to be lower at these sites. In the long run the under has done very well on neutral courts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game is played at Madison Square Garden. This is the best under venue in all of college basketball. It is a huge arena with a unique backdrop. 

Duke is always thought of as an offensive team, but many of their newcomers this year are even better on defense than offense. Duke is second in defensive efficiency so far this year, and I would expect them to stay in the top five all year. The Blue Devils have some elite perimeter defenders.

Georgetown does push the pace, but the Hoyas haven't gone against a defense with the same length and athleticism as Duke so far this year. 

Duke is a 13 point favorite here. The under has done well in games where Duke is a double digit favorite in the long run. Coach K's teams do slow the tempo late when they are winning.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions are about as good as anyone at slowing a game down. They did that again yesterday. Their win over Air Force had only 61 possessions. Loyola Marymount just shot lights out in that win. They averaged 1.28 points per possession in that game. For a team that was expected to struggle mostly on offense this year, that was a very surprising performance. I think they are likely to regress to the mean some on offense here. 

Indiana State had 49 fouls called in their game yesterday which made that game edge past the posted total. It's unlikely we will see that many fouls in this game. 

This is a neutral court game which is clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMBC Retrievers try to slow the game to a crawl. They don't have good outside shooters. That's a big problem against Eastern Michigan's zone defense that packs it in the paint and tries to force you to beat them from outside.  Eastern Michigan can be vulnerable on the offensive boards with their zone defense as well. UMBC though has ranked in the bottom 100 in offensive rebounding the last two years.

Eastern Michigan held North Texas to 51 points on the road in their last game. The Eagles only put up 56 points. The Eagles have a lot of questions on offense, and UMBC has consistently been a very good defensive team.

Both of these teams project as very low scoring teams, and this is a neutral site contest that is a positive for the under as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Indiana State Sycamores have been a very good defensive team under coach Greg Lansing. Last year's team didn't live up to expectations on the defensive end, and Lansing made it clear that was a priority for this year. I expect them to be at least some better on defense this season. 

Keith Dambrot coached the Akron Zips for quite a few years. He had many good defensive teams. Dambrot's teams have often been better on defense than offense. Duquesne ranks 55th in effective field goal percentage defense so far this year. 

Both of these teams play at a slightly slower than average pace. There shouldn't be all that many possessions in this game. 

This is played at a neutral court in the Bahamas. Early season neutral court contests are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Marymount Lions ranked 349th out of 353 teams in average possession length last year. They rank 343rd out of 353 in the country this year. Loyola is clearly trying to use as much clock as possible and keep games low scoring. 

Air Force always plays at a slower than average tempo, and I don't see them forcing the tempo much in this one. The Falcons had a couple high scoring games in their first two games of the season. Their last two games have finished with 126 points and 119 points. 

Loyola Marymount scored 67 points against Nevada and 64 points against Colorado State. Both of those teams are pushing the pace, and neither of them are very good on defense.

This is played at a neutral court in the Bahamas. Early season neutral court contests are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips scored two touchdowns last week against a weak Eastern Michigan defense. Don't let that fool you into thinking Akron is getting good offensively though. Akron hit a 87 yard TD pass for one of the scores and then they scored with a minute left when Eastern Michigan was up huge and playing a prevent defense.

Miami (Ohio) has the best defense in the MAC. Akron has been held to 6 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. A touchdown or less from Akron is very possible here. 

Miami (Ohio) is weak offensively and they typically try not to run up the score. The Redhawks should win this game comfortably, and I believe that's a good thing for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have the talent to be an excellent defensive team. They rank 10th in defensive efficiency so far this year. Philadelphia has also slowed their pace down this year. The 76ers are 15th in the league in tempo overall. In the past six games alone, the 76ers are 24th in the NBA in tempo. 

The New York Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace. The Knicks rank 27th in pace for the year and 28th in pace in the last six games only. New York is 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Knicks shot extremely well in their last game, a win over Cleveland, but they'll face a much tougher test here. 

The 76ers offense is only 18th in offensive efficiency. Philadelphia has been inconsistent on the offensive end.

This is a divisional game where the home team is a clear favorite, and those matchups have been good to under bettors in the past decade in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Holy Cross Crusaders have a new coach in Brett Nelson. Nelson has changed their style of play drastically. Before, Holy Cross would run the clock down low every possession with the Princeton offense of Bill Carmody. Nelson wants the team to push the pace at every opportunity. 

Holy Cross games have averaged 6.5 possessions per game more than they did a year ago. The Crusaders lost their best defensive players from last year, and they are going to be very weak on defense this year. They rank 320th in defensive efficiency so far this year in the country, so it has been a major struggle. They even allowed 87 points to a New Hampshire team that ranked dead last at 353rd in the counry in offensive efficiency last year.

Northeastern's Bill Coen runs a great motion offense. This team constantly moves without the ball and gets great looks at the basket. Northeastern was 13th in effective field goal percentage offense two years ago. They were 5th last year. They are 21st in the country so far this year. Look for them to get a lot of wide open looks against Holy Cross.

Two of Holy Cross' three games this year have finished at 166 points or higher. Northeastern has seen an average of 149.5 points scored in their games (3 of 4 have finished at 145 or higher).

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have proven what they are at this point. The Bears are a team with a really good defense and a terrible offense. Trubisky isn't the answer at QB, and the offensive line in front of him has been a disappointment as well.

Does that sound familiar? The Rams defense isn't as good as the Bears, and the Rams offense is better than the Bears, but there are a lot of similarities here. Jared Goff has been a huge disappointment. The Rams offensive line is a mess. They haven't been good and they are banged up as well.

These two teams met each other last year and the Bears won 15-6. I couldn't expect a game that low scoring again, but I do think it will be a defensive battle.

The Bears have played six games to a total of 36 points or lower this year. The Rams have played five games to a total of 36 points or lower this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Before the season new Fairfield coach Jay Young said of his team "Scoring is going to be a big concern." First of all, it is very rare you'll see a coach say that about their team before a season. At the same time, it is refreshing to see someone who just is honest and calls out their weakness from day one. 

Indeed it has been a struggle for Fairfield on the offensive end. Fairfield ranks 303rd in offensive efficiency so far this year. The Stags are averaging 61 points per game in regulation in their first three contests. They are also playing at an extremely slow tempo. They are looking to turn these games into grinders.

Loyola Maryland has played to the pace of the opponent most of the time the last couple seasons. The Greyhounds aren't likely to be out in transition too much here. They scored only 53 points on Marquette and 53 points against Old Dominion as well.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green have made it abundantly clear in their first four games that they want to stall. Dartmouth ranks 339th in the nation in average possession length. This ranks them among the 15 slowest teams in the country. 

It's pretty rare to see a total set this high when one team is playing so slowly. Dartmouth's final totals so far this year have been 131 points, 104 points, 101 points, and 94 points. 

UMass Lowell was willing to play a slow paced game with Merrimack yesterday. This one will likely be played quicker than that game, but I still see a tempo in the mid 60's (possessions) as likely. 

Both teams have been good at defending without fouling the last couple seasons. They have both also been good at clearing defensive rebounds.

This total is several points too high.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* North Dakota State and Stony Brook both want to play at a slow pace. These are two teams who are comfortable playing physical halfcourt games where possessions are at a premium. Both teams are good on the defensive glass, which should limit how many second chance opportunities there are in this one.

This is a neutral site game in Texas in the early afternoon. Neither team is close at all to home and this is a relatively large arena (8,500 capacity) that will be mostly empty for this game. These situations are helpful for the under. The shooting backdrop isn't as good in these cases. 

North Dakota State relies on the 3 ball a lot, and the 3 point line being moved back this year could hurt their efficiency. Stony Brook has a lot of offensive question marks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs defense has allowed 33.42 points per game in their last seven games. Tampa Bay's pass defense is absolutely horrendous. Vernon Hargreaves hadn't performed up to what was expected, but releasing him definitely didn't make this secondary any better. 

Tampa Bay has only allowed less than 27 points in a single game all year. That was their win over Carolina early in the year where Cam Newton was clearly hurt. This Bucs defense is really bad. 

New Orleans has scored 40, 28, and 31 points against Tampa Bay in the last three meetings. Coming off a bad performance last week, I would expect the Saints offense to bounce back in a big way here.

The Saints defense will likely be without Marshon Lattimore, and he is the key to the Saints secondary. Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston is inconsistent, but the Bucs are loaded at wide receiver and they should be able to move the ball and score plenty in this one too.

The over is 7-0 in the Bucs last 7. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are playing a stingy zone defense. Joe Gallo is known for his defensive prowess, and he has this new Division I team working really hard in their unique zone defense. This is a morphing zone where they deny far more passes to the wing than most zones do. They held Northwestern to 61 points. They then held Dartmouth to 55 points. Yesterday, they held UMass Lowell to 58 points.

Merrimack wants to slow the game down. They rank 316th overall in the country in tempo. They settle for too many bad 3 pointers on the offensive end.

Jacksonville is 265th in overall tempo and 302nd in average possession length. They should be happy to play a slow tempo here as well.

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia State Panthers will be without star quarterback Dan Ellington in this one. Ellington was hurt at the end of the second quarter in last week's 45-31 loss to ULM. Georgia State scored 24 points while Ellington was in that game, and they scored only 7 points without him. Cornelious Brown was 8/18 for 80 yards in relief of Ellington. Brown isn't the player that Ellington is, and Georgia State is up against a good defense here.

Appalachian State's defense didn't look very good earlier this year, but they have rounded into form. Appalachian State has allowed 7 points or less in three of their last four Sun Belt games. In their last five games overall, the Mountaineers have given up an average of 11.2 points per game.

Georgia State's defense is bad, and Appalachian State should be able to move the ball a lot on them. The Mountaineers have slowed their pace down with big leads though, and I think this total is several points too high given the GA State quarterback situation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both schools actually rank in the top 40 in yard per play and despite Air Force's slow tempo, they have been able to put points on the board due to their effectiveness in the red zone (averaging 38 points per game in conference play so far). The Falcons also have a bit more of a passing game to keep teams honest than they have had in recent seasons. 

*4 Star Play Under*  Bo Nix and the Auburn offense has struggled when they step up in class. While he does look better at home, that has been against far inferior defenses. On the flip side of the ball, Auburn's defense has been outstanding all year long, including holding LSU to their lowest point total and their lowest yard per play (per game) of the season, and that was in Baton Rouge. Auburn's defense has been impressive in nearly every aspect of the game, stopping the run, preventing explosive plays and red zone defense.

Georgia is going through at a surprisingly slow tempo this year, ranking 125 of 130 teams (and last in the SEC in just conference games). While their offense has looked good, they don't have the experience of the schedule that auburn has faced so far and I would give the edge to auburn's defense, especially with the hostile home crowd at Auburn. Both defenses rank in top 20 in yards-per-play allowed as well as red zone TD scoring %. Both offense run the ball frequently (57% of the time for UGA and 60% for Auburn), so the clock should keep rolling a lot in this one.  Great defenses and a running clock would favor a low scoring affair as the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry adds a new chapter.

In a game that mean a lot to both teams, look for the defenses to be ready to go. The offenses will have to work hard for their points. Take the under.

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats have had less than 45 total points scored in every SEC game other than their opener against Florida. Remember, that game had 43 points and as Florida tried to run out the clock with a few seconds left they busted a long TD run. Kentucky has run the ball a bunch all year, and the Wildcats offense has really struggled. Their defense has kept them in games. 

Vanderbilt's offense is absolutely hapless. They are averaging a miserable 3.93 yards per play in SEC play. That is easily last in the conference. In SEC play they have only 13 plays of 20 yards or more all season. The Commodores often get behind and need to try to throw the ball, but their passing game is absolutely awful.

Both of these teams play at a pace far slower than the average team. I would expect an ugly contest here that stays under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles have one of the worst offenses in the country. Tennessee Tech scored only 30 points on Friday in a blowout loss to UNC Greensboro. While I can't expect them to put up such a low point total again, I wouldn't expect a lot of points from them here. This is a team that turns the ball over at such a high percentage that they waste all sorts of possessions. 

Appalachian State plays at a slightly slower pace than average. Tennessee Tech plays at a slow pace as well.

This is an early season neutral site game, and these have been very strong to the under in the long run. This number is quite a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans have been a really good over team this year. Troy ranks 15th in the nation in tempo. The Trojans are 28th in yards per play on offense as well, so they have been putting up some big numbers. Troy has multiple options on the outside, and they have a veteran signal caller under center.

Texas State ranks 48th in tempo. The Bobcats offense has finally started to click a bit better in recent weeks. There are some good offensive coaches on this staff, and I would expect them to be able to get things going more on the offensive end the rest of this year- and then especially get it going even more next year.

These two teams rank 13th and 6th in the nation in percentage of plays that are a pass. That being the case, there should be a lot of possessions in this game with both teams playing at a fast pace too.

This total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green have been really impressive so far this year. Dartmouth has been able to control the pace of the game in each of their three games. They are 3-0 on the year. Dartmouth ranks 336th in average possession length so far this year. There has been an average of just 112 points total in Dartmouth's three games so far this year.

Jacksonville has played at a pace slower than average so far this year as well. Tony Jasick's team tends to play to the pace of their opponent more often than not.

This game is at a neutral site, and early games at neutral sites in college basketball has been a strong angle to the under in recent seasons. Rule changes for this year have made that an even stronger angle.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers defense ranks 10th in the country in yards per play allowed. They likely aren't that good since they have played a weak schedule, but the strength of this Missouri team has been their defense.

Missouri's offense ranks 11th in the SEC in yards per play at 5.01 yards per play. The Tigers only have 37 plays of 20 yards or more this year (97th in the country). This offensive line has allowed 19 sacks, and the Florida defense ranks 5th in the country with 35 sacks so far this year. They'll be in the Missouri backfield in this game.

Florida's offense and Missouri's offense both play at a slightly slower than average pace. Florida has been pass heavy this year, and the strength of the Missouri defense is the secondary.

Florida's defense ranks 24th in yards per play allowed, and that number is skewed from their giving up so much against LSU. Missouri's offense clearly isn't LSU. 

This total has been bet up to a point where I see a good amount of value. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Through two games UC Riverside is using an average of 25.1 seconds of the 30 second shot clock. That is far slower than anyone else in the country so far this year. The Highlanders should do the same thing again here.

Sacramento State lost their star offensive player in Marcus Graves from last year's team. This offense is likely to be pretty inefficient without him. The Hornets tend to prefer playing at a slow pace as well.

This is a game that should be played in the halfcourt, and we have two offenses with a bunch of question marks. The new rules are helpful to the under since both teams likely have to settle for some bad 3's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I view San Diego State as a great under team. They are so consistent in playing low scoring games. They have only played one game all season that has finished higher than 44 points. That's truly amazing this late in the year. 

Both offenses rank in the top half in conference play on percentage of plays that are runs as both run the ball north of 50%  of the time, which means a lot of running clock which is good for the under (SD St running the ball on 60 % of plays in conference games so far).

*3 Star Play Under* The Dartmouth Big Green always want to slow the game down. Dartmouth ranked 295th in average length of possession two years ago. They ranked 321st a year ago. So far this season, they rank 328th in tempo. 

Merrimack College is transitioning to Division I this year. Joe Gallo is a really good head coach. He has this team playing a unique zone defense that really bothered Northwestern in Merrimack's stunning win over the Wildcats in their last game. I would expect most of Merrimack's games to be played at a fairly slow pace based on their extended zone.

This game is being played at a neutral site. Neutral site unders have done really well in the past thanks to lower shooting numbers. This year the 3 point line being moved back is an extra positive for a situation like this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Presbyterian Blue Hose had a nice year last year. They lost just about everyone from last year's team though. That included their head coach Dustin Kerns, who did a great job with this program. The Blue Hose didn't return a single double digit scorer this year. 

Presbyterian has a new head coach in Quinton Ferrell. Ferrell was an assistant coach at College of Charleston, where they have been known for their relatively slow pace and extremely strong defense. In their first couple games of the year, Presbyterian has slowed the game down quite a bit. This isn't a team with much scoring depth, and I think they'll want to play lower scoring games.

Morehead State ranks among the 30 slowest paced teams in the nation so far this year when it comes to average length of possession. They slowed down a Samford team that wants to play very quickly. The Eagles aren't likely to be pushing the pace too hard here either.

With the new rules in college basketball helping the under thus far, a total like this between two teams who lack scorers is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under*   (4 star play down to 128- 3 star play down to 125.5*

Wyoming has slowed their pace down to a crawl this year. The oddsmakers have adjusted, but I don't believe they have adjusted enough. Wyoming played really quick a couple years ago, and they were in the middle of the pack this year. They should finish among the 5 or 10 slowest teams in the country in pace this season. They will likely be a decent team defensively, but their offense is inefficient. 

Fullerton lost their two star scorers in Ahmad and Allman. The Titans are one of the better defensive teams in the Big West. Fullerton offensively should struggle with efficiency this year as they look to find a new identity on the offensive end. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Missouri State was an automatic under last year, and until I see something different I'm riding the under train again here. Missouri State uses up the clock very well and they play excellent defense. Cleveland State has slowed down so far this year, and I don't think they'll push the pace. This is a Cleveland State offense that is very inefficient as well.

I see this one staying in the 120's. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand on Tuesday night.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Star TOP Play Over* The Mississippi State Delta Devils have played at a ridiculous pace in their first three games. Their defense is arguably the worst in the country as well. The Delta Devils have given up 110, 143, and 134 points in their first three games.

Western Michigan does play slower than those other teams. I don't think the Broncos will score 130 points, but I also think they'll put up a big number. This will be the worst defense they face all year. 

I think this one is lined quite a bit too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips have scored a grand total of 9 points in their last four games. Akron's offense is the worst in the country. The Zips are averaging 3.50 yards per play inside a MAC that is filled with bad defenses.

Eastern Michigan has been a disappointment this year, but they are a big favorite here as they should be. Eastern Michigan is a good passing team, but they can't run the ball. If they get a lead, I wouldn't expect them to have much success running later in the game as they bleed the clock. 

Akron's defense actually ranks 54th best in the country and 4th best in the MAC. They are a respectable unit.

It is set to snow in Akron on Tuesday. Most of the snow will likely be done by the time the game starts, but winds of about 13-15 mph and very cold temperatures will still be around during this contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Florida A&M Rattlers got much better defensively last year. Florida A&M went from 289th in effective field goal percentage defense two years ago to 70th a year ago. The Rattlers do have significant problems on the offensive end though. Florida A&M ranked 347th in the country averaging only 0.894 points per possession a year ago.

Florida A&M was also among the 40 slowest teams in the country in terms of pace last year. They will play slowly again this season. Florida A&M saw 6 of their first 9 games last year stay at 128 points or lower. Their first three games this year have finished with totals of 125, 115, and 130 points.

South Dakota is the much better team here, and they should be able to coast to a victory. The Coyotes have been great from 3 point range so far this year, but some regression should be expected there. Florida A&M has been good at defending the 3 ball the last couple years too.

South Dakota has been happy to slow the pace of the game down with a lead under Todd Lee. I would expect the same here.

This is a neutral site game and that is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dusty May has a really deep team, and he has said that he wants his team to be uptempo on offense. May said the team is healthier this year (Ingram and Sebree were hurt last year), and their improved depth will help them play faster.

We all know Nate Oats wants to run at Alabama. It is no secret that Oats had great success at Buffalo by forcing the pace in a big way. The slowest overall tempo his teams at Buffalo had still ranked 39th in the country in fastest paced. The last two seasons, Buffalo's average possession length was among the five fastest in the nation.

Alabama played their first game to 84 possessions- so they were absolutely flying up and down the court in that one.

We should see a really quick pace here, so if we can avoid an ugly shooting night- I like the chances of this one being a high scoring affair. 

I think both of these teams have improved offenses from a year ago.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys are two of the most run heavy teams in the NFL. Minnesota ranks 3rd highest in the league in percentage of plays that are a rush. Dallas ranks 6th highest in the league in percentage of plays that are a run. 

These two run defenses have been excellent at not giving up big running plays this year. Dallas has allowed only one run all year of 20 yards or more. That's the best in the NFL. Minnesota has allowed only two runs of 20 yards or more so far this year. That's second best in the NFL.

With a lot of running plays and teams who have been good at avoiding giving up big plays, I see a lot of moving clock and long drives here. If we get some drives where they take a lot of time off the clock and kick a field goal or don't score at all, it's a big plus for the under. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins offense has been middle of the pack the last few weeks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is actually playing pretty well right now. It's clear he is a big improvement from Josh Rosen. The Dolphins should be able to move the ball here against a Colts defense that is mediocre at best. 

Brian Hoyer gets the start here and the Colts are definitely short handed on offense, but this Miami defense is very bad. Miami has faced the 28th toughest slate of offenses this year, but still ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They have been especially bad in the secondary, and they have a cluster injury problem in the secondary right now. Even with the Colts banged up on offense, I think Frank Reich and this Colts offense will have a good game plan to take advantage of this Miami secondary.

This is a low total for a dome with two questionable defenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Denver Nuggets have played at by far the slowest pace in the NBA. Denver is averaging just 97.05 possessions per game. That is nearly two full possessions per game slower than the second slowest team in the league. 

Minnesota is playing at the fastest pace of any team in the league. The Timberwolves do play fast, but a closer look at their schedule so far and you'll see they have played a lot of very fast paced teams. Minnesota hasn't played a team all year ranked slower than 20th in tempo. They have also played 5 of their 8 games against teams ranked in the top nine in the NBA in tempo. 

Denver ranks 9th in defensive efficiency in the NBA. Minnesota ranks 15th. Therse two teams rank 20th and 22nd in offensive efficiency.

Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the long run in the NBA. Sunday divisional unders have done particularly well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* San Diego State is great at turning games into a rock fight. They are great defensively. They are challenged offensively. They are also well-coached. San Diego State hasn't had a single game finish with anymore than 48 combined points all year. That's truly amazing this deep into the season. They have also had 4 games with 37 points or fewer in them. 

Nevada's offense has been hapless of late. They don't have an answer at the quarterback spot. This team has no identity on offense, and I find it hard to imagine them scoring many at all in this game.

San Diego State is typically a team that doesn't win by margins. They are content to run the ball and use up a bunch of the clock. They should do it again here once in the lead.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* St. John's put up 109 points against Mercer in their first game. Mike Anderson brings renewed energy to this St. John's basketball program. The Red Storm have a bunch of quickness and Anderson believes the talent matches his scheme nicely. Anderson's teams always want to run and full court press. St. John's forced that first game to a blistering pace of 83 possessions.

Central Connecticut State coach Donyell Marshall has talked about wanting to play quick. If they want to play quick- here is their chance. C Conn State's defense is very weak and they turn it over a lot. St. John's should put up a really big number here. 

If the pace is as quick as I believe it will be here, it won't even take great shooting numbers to get to this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears defense has really impressed me this year. Baylor ranks 20th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Baylor already has 26 sacks this year. They have been very good at getting into the opponents backfield. This is an aggressive Bears defense that is likely to cause the TCU questionable offensive line trouble.

TCU has a solid defense too. The Horned Frogs rank 40th in yards per play allowed, but they have played some very good offenses. Gary Patterson is a defensive minded coach who should have this defense ready for this matchup.

Baylor put up some big numbers early in the season against some weak teams. Their offense is decent, but it is a bit overvalued. TCU's offense hasn't been good all season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Penn State Nittany Lions rank first in the country in yards per carry allowed (1.99 ypc allowed). Minnesota runs the ball on nearly 70% of their offensive plays. P.J. Fleck's team will try their best to use up a bunch of clock. They run the ball that often and then play at a bottom five pace. Minnesota will try to keep Penn State's offense off the field here. 

Penn State's offense has a star in Hamler, but the rest of the unit is good and not great. Clifford is up against a very good secondary here. Minnesota is a well-coached team and I would expect Penn State to have trouble picking up big plays. Minnesota is 5th in the nation in least 20 plus yard plays allowed. 

Look for some Big Ten smash mouth football played in Minnesota in what is a huge game for both teams. Both teams enter unbeaten and this is a big test for them.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Neutral site unders have done really well early in the season in college basketball. Since 2005, in games 1-8 of the season on a neutral court and a total of 134 or higher the under is 55.1%. That's a large sample size.

This game is played in Hawaii and neither team is accustomed to playing here. There have been some really low scoring games in neutral site games here in the past. This is a gym with a bit of a poor shooting backdrop, and Hawaii is obviously a long way away from home for both teams.

Pacific doesn't have enough offensive weapons to play quickly. Damon Stoudamire's team has slowed the pace down significantly in the last couple seasons. 

South Dakota and Pacific are two good defensive rebounding teams. I wouldn't expect too many second chance opportunities.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen host the Veteran's Classic on Friday night. This is a game that means a lot to the Navy program for obvious reasons. East Carolina is their opponent here. 

East Carolina ranked 319th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. Navy ranked 319th in effective field goal percentage offense last year. 

Navy struggled with getting a lot of their shots blocked last year. East Carolina is the tallest team in the country. They'll likely get quite a few blocked in this game.

East Carolina shot 28.4% from 3 last year and Navy shot 31.7% from 3 point range a year ago. The 3 point line has been moved back this year and thus far it has resulted in games that are quite a bit lower scoring. 

Both teams turn the ball over a bunch, so there should be a lot of wasted possessions. 

Navy used up 21.7 seconds of the shot clock on average in their first game against George Mason. That game was 52-52 at the end of regulation. They'll work hard to grind this game to a halt as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals System Play* Divisional games under the total in the NBA has been a good angle in the long run. That is especially true early in the season. 

I like taking divisional unders that are contrarian plays. Divisional unders where less than half the bets are on the under and less than half the money is on the under have done extremely well in the long run. How good has this angle been overall? For the whole season overall- the under is 309-235 (56.8% unders). In the first 30 games of the season, this system is at 60.5%.

Jeremy Lamb is out for the Pacers here, and he has been a big scorer (17 ppg) so far this year. The Pistons are without Reggie Jackson and Derrick Rose (20.8 ppg this year). Blake Griffin is also still out.

There aren't enough scorers here for this game to be lined this high. Both of these teams play slower than average and I like this system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maine Black Bears coach says they want to continue to use a "deliberate" pace. Maine was 342nd in the nation in length of possession on offense last year. Maine was also 335th in offensive efficiency. In 31 games against Division I opponents, Maine saw only 10 of their games get past this posted total. Only 8 of their 31 games went over this total in regulation.

Merrimack College transitions over to Division I this year. Merrimack is coached by Joe Gallo who was an assistant at Robert Morris a few years ago, and his team plays zone almost all the time. Their 2-3 zone will often slow the game down and force opponents to hit shots from the outside. Merrimack faces a Maine team that has shot 29.6% and 31.0% from 3 point range the last two years. 

Maine's defense should improve a bit under Richard Barron this year. The Black Bears were solid on the defensive glass last year.

Look for a slow pace in this one and I like it to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Duquesne is in the middle of a couple major transitions. Leading scorer and rebounder Eric Williams transferred to Oregon in the offseason. Frankie Hughes was the team's fourth leading scorer, and he is out with an injury. Duquesne will be relying on some youngsters in the backcourt. 

The Dukes weren't bad on defense last year, but they gave up far too many second chance points. Princeton consistently ranks near the bottom of the nation in offensive rebounds. 

Princeton lost Myles Stephens in the offseason, and there are a lot of questions about who their go to scoring options will be. The Tigers prefer to use clock on offense and they don't get to the line very much.

Princeton excels at defensive rebounding, and Duquesne got a lot of offense from second chance opportunities last year.

PPG Paints Arena (hockey arena) is where this one will be played. Duquesne doesn't really have a home gym while there campus arena is being worked on. PPG Paints arena has seen 6 of the last 8 games played here go under the total. Of those six games that have gone under- all but one of them stayed under the number by 12 points or more. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys are first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas had a bye week to get ready for this game. The Cowboys put it on Philadelphia in their last game. They should be up for this game though. They lost at New York against the lowly Jets earlier this year, and the Giants and Cowboys don't like each other.

The Giants offense has shown the ability to move the ball pretty well this year when they are healthy. They have their skill position stars back in Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram. They should be able to make enough big plays to score a decent amount.

The Giants secondary is a bottom five group in the NFL, and I expect Dak Prescott and his healthy group of receivers to beat them once again here. Ezekiel Elliot is a top two or three back in the NFL and he'll get his as well.

I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers offense has been on fire of late. Green Bay is averaging 32.3 points per game in their last six games. Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack have gotten it going. Now, Davante Adams is slated to come back from his injury in this one barring a setback in pregame warmups. 

Green Bay should be able to take advantage of a Chargers secondary that is weak at the safety spot. Injuries have really hurt that unit. 

The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator, and I think this offense will be more aggressive and move a little quicker under their new offensive coordinator. Phillip Rivers still has some pretty good playmakers around him. Green Bay has allowed 11 plays of 40 yards or more (worst in the NFL), so the Packers can be beaten deep.

We are under the key number of 49 here, and I'll back the over in this spot.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions offense is more pass heavy without Johnson at running back. Detroit is 5th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, so the Lions have been able to get quite a few big gainers in the passing game. The Raiders pass defense ranks 28th in yards per pass allowed. Matt Stafford and this Lions passing attack should have a lot of success here.

Oakland has been good both on the ground and through the air this year. The Raiders rank 6th in the NFL in yards per play. Detroit ranks 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Darius Slay is banged up and is questionable. Mike Daniels is also questionable for the Lions defense. They aren't that good to begin with, and now they are short handed. 

Both of these teams have given up far more big plays than the average team in the NFL. Expect a lot of explosive plays in this one. 

The weather looks good in this one, and the number has dropped a little. I think the over is a nice value here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon secondary hadn't really been tested until the last two games. They failed their test. Washington threw the ball easily on this Oregon secondary. Washington State put up a big number against them as well.

USC has many problems, but they still have some of the best receivers in the country. They also have a good quarterback to get them the ball. I think USC can pick up big plays in the air against Oregon here.

The USC defense is allowing 5.81 yards per play. The Trojans have allowed a whopping 127 plays of 10 yards or more on the season (112th in the country). Oregon's offense is good on the ground and through the air. They should move the ball with ease as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats offense has been historically bad this year. Northwestern has played 7 games so far this year. They have scored 10 points or less in five of those games. 

Indiana's defense isn't great, but it has been much better than I expected. The Hoosiers rank 34th in the nation in yards per play allowed. 

Northwestern only has 10 plays of 20 yards or more in 7 games. That is easily worst in the nation. The Wildcats have absolutely no passing game, and the running game isn't very good.

Indiana's offense has slowed their pace drastically this year. The Hoosiers will go up against a very solid Northwestern defense here. The Wildcats rank 44th in yards per play allowed despite playing a very tough schedule.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Oregon State is much better on offense than many realize. Jake Luton has done a nice job under center, and they have a pretty good ground game as well. This offense was quieted down by Cal and Utah recently, but now they go against a very weak defense in Arizona.

Arizona is playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the Pac 12. The Wildcats rank 18th in the nation in yards per play, so offense hasn't been the problem for much of the season. 

Arizona just fired defensive coordinator Marcel Yates, but I don't think there is a quick fix for their defensive woes. The Wildcats are giving up 6.2 yards per play.

Oregon State's defense isn't much better. They are allowing 5.89 yards per play.

Oregon State and Arizona both play quickly, and the offenses have clear advantages in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes play at the 129th pace in the country out of 130 teams. The Utes also run the ball on 65% of their offensive plays. Utah is a grind it out team. They will use their offensive line to try to wear you down a little bit at a time over the course of the game. 

Washington isn't likely to get much at all on the ground in this one. Utah is second in the country in yards per carry allowed. The Huskies offense has been inconsistent this season. I wouldn't expect them to be able to consistently put together good drives against this elite Utah defense. 

Washington also plays slowly. The Huskies rank 92nd in the country in pace of play. 

The Huskies defense has been much better in recent seasons at home, and I think they'll stay in this game. Utah is the better team though and I think they dictate the flow of this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks continue to push the tempo. Arkansas has played a lot of good defenses so far this year. The Razorbacks have faced Auburn and Alabama in the last two weeks. Those defenses will shut a lot of offenses down. 

Arkansas isn't good offensively, but Mississippi State is really bad on defense. The Bulldogs were great on defense last year, but they had to replace nearly everyone- and it hasn't gone well. Mississippi State ranks 111th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Mississippi State has already played three games that finished with a total of 66 or higher. Two of their last four games finished at 79 points total.

These are the 12th and 13th ranked defenses in the SEC. Expect the two offenses to have quite a bit of success.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Colorado State's offense has been far better than most people realize this year. Patrick O'Brien is quietly dominating at quarterback for the Rams. He has completed 61% of his passes and has 1,716 yards despite starting the season on the bench. The Rams have 10 plays of 60 yards or more this season, which is best in the nation. 

What is UNLV's defensive weakness? They can't keep the opposition in front of them. UNLV has been beaten deep many times this year. The Rebels have allowed 27 plays of 30 yards or more already this season (127th in the country). 

UNLV has played several teams who consistently have low scoring games this year, and that has skewed their overall point totals down. They have already played Northwestern, Wyoming (they had a high scoring game here), Vanderbilt, and San Diego State.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Charlotte's offense has been excellent this year. The new coaching staff deserves all kinds of credit. Charlotte was a bottom ten offense in the country for many years in a row. This year, Charlotte ranks 23rd in the country in yards per play. The 49ers have an impressive 48 plays of 20 yards or more already this year. 

MTSU has found a pretty good quarterback in Asher O'Hara. The Blue Raiders running game has gotten going in a big way the last couple games. MTSU is averaging 5.47 yards per carry (12th in the nation). The Blue Raiders can do enough through the air to keep teams honest.

Both of these defenses are really weak. MTSU ranks 103rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. Charlotte ranks 116th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Look for a lot of big plays both ways here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas Jayhawks have turned up the tempo in a big way. In the middle of the year, they decided to change the way this offense was run. Their last four games have all finished with at least 65 points total. Kansas' offense is much improved compared to a year ago. I'm really impressed with the job Les Miles has done thus far.

Kansas State is coming off that stunning win over Oklahoma. The Wildcats are thought of as a defensive team, but this defense hasn't been very good. Kansas State ranks 110th in the country in yards per play allowed. They have been very fortunate to not give up more points. This defense is a regression candidate.

I think this total has been bet down because recent games between these two have been so low. These are different teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The under is a whopping 33-9-1 in service academy matchups since 2005. It makes a lot of sense. These teams generally benefit on offense from the fact that the opposing defense isn't accustomed to seeing the triple option. That benefit isn't there when you are playing against another service academy. 

Additionally, these teams badly want to win matchups against each other. In games with this kind of high level of motivation, it tends to lead to lower scoring games.

Both teams play at such a slow pace that even if they move the ball down the field it should take a very long time. Even long drives with field goals are big positives for the under.

Air Force has been throwing the ball a little more this year, but they are expected to have the lead and with a lead they are good at running the ball and using up the clock.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* UMass is the worst defense in the country, and it isn't close. The Minutemen are allowing a whopping 7.71 yards per play this year. UMass has allowed 55 plays of 20 yards or more. They are equally bad against the run and the pass.

Liberty's offense is due for some positive regression. They rank 28th in the nation in yards per play, but they are 60th in the nation in points per game. The Flames get a great chance to put up a big number here.

The Liberty defense is allowing 6.12 yards per play. Liberty has had some red zone luck on defense or their opponents would have scored more. 

UMass surprisingly pushes the pace. The Minutemen rank 7th in the nation in tempo. Hugh Freeze wants his Liberty team to play fast as well. 

This number is several points too low.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Raiders offenses has had some really nice schemes planned this year. Jon Gruden is doing a good job putting Derek Carr in good spots. The Oakland running game is better than expected this year as well.

Oakland's defense is terrible. The Raiders are especially weak in the secondary. They just traded away Gareon Conley to the Texans. Conley was the most talented player the Raiders had in the secondary. Oakland was already getting torched by opposing quarterbacks, and it won't get better now. Oakland allowed Aaron Rodgers and a bunch of backup WR's to light them up last week. 

Houston's last three games have finished with 85, 55, and 53 points. The Texans defense is giving up a lot of big plays. Houston's offense is hitting a lot more big gainers through the air too. 

Oakland and Houston have both improved on the offensive line compared to last year. Look for both teams to move the ball with ease in the dome at Houston on Sunday.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This San Francisco 49ers defense is the real deal. Their defensive front is arguably the best in the NFL. San Francisco is doing a great job keeping everything in front of them. The 49ers have only allowed 12 plays of 20 yards or more all year long. That is the best in the NFL. 

Carolina's defense ranks 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Panthers don't have any clear weaknesses on this side of the football. With a solid group of linebackers, the Panthers should be good all year on defense.

The weather forecast for this game calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts of 35-40 mph during this game. That is enough wind to change the game a lot. That kind of weather tends to make teams far more conservative. That should mean more running clock and that clearly helps the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears defense is absolutely loaded. The Bears defense ranks 4th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Bears have faced the 10th toughest slate of offenses so far this year as well. The Bears have dominated on defense at times this year, and I think they will be very good here after losing a couple straight contests. They need this game. 

The Chargers offense is 12th in yards per play this year. They have faced the 28th toughest slate of defenses. This is easily the best defense they have had to go up against this year. 

The Bears offense is still a mess. Chicago has only 14 plays of 20 yards or more all season. They have only 1 play of 40 yards or more. The Chargers defense isn't great, but they have had poor fumble luck and they are good at preventing big plays. 

I don't see either team consistently driving up and down the field here.

There is expected to be a 10-12 mph sustained wind at Soldier Field with gusts up to 20 mph during this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are playing at the single fastest pace of any team in the country so far this year. Jordan Love and the Aggies offense haven't been quite as efficient as one would have expected, but I expect Love and the passing game to improve the rest of the year. 

Air Force has multiple quarterbacks who know the system well and who can run the triple option and have success. The Falcons have scored 38 and 32 points on Utah State the last two years. They have allowed 38 and 42 points in those games. This is a series where there have been a bunch of points.

The Air Force offense is much better this year than they have been in recent seasons. Air Force's defense has been weak against the pass this year. Love should have success against them. With the pace that this game will be played at this isn't a high total. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here calls for sustained winds of 15-18 mph with gusts of 25 mph. There is heavy rain expected as well. 

Michigan's defense is a top ten defense in the country. Notre Dame really hasn't faced many really good defenses this year. Ian Book is a question mark to me when he goes against good defenses.

Notre Dame's defense showed me a lot in their close loss to Georgia. This is a Fighting Irish defense that has allowed only 16 plays of 20 yards or more all year (5th best in the nation).

The weather here is significant enough that we should expect the two defenses to have the upper hand in this big game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Kentucky has played five games in the SEC. Only one of those games has gone over this total, and that game should have stayed under this number as well. It was their 29-21 loss to Florida. The Gators ran for a 76 yard touchdown with 30 seconds while they were leading 22-21. Kentucky's games since then have finished at 41, 31, 44, and 24 points. 

The Wildcats are averaging only 13 points per game in SEC play. They are without their starting quarterback, and it has definitely limited them on offense. Kentucky is playing the second best defense they have faced thus far in this game. Missouri ranks 6th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Tigers excel at not giving up big plays, and I don't think Kentucky will be able to consistently move down the field on Missouri.

The Tigers offense has been extremely inconsistent. They lack big playmakers on the outside, and the Tigers will be tested by a Kentucky defense that is improving as the season moves along. 

The weather forecast calls for heavy rain and winds of 15 mph in this one. That will make both offenses more conservative than normal. That is clearly a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* MTSU is 50th in the nation in yards per play offensively. They are 106th in the nation in points per game. MTSU is playing at the fastest pace of any team in Conference USA in its conference games so far this year. The Blue Raiders should be more efficient over time. They have only 10 touchdowns in the red zone in 19 trips into the red zone this year. That should regress toward the mean. MTSU has been able to move the ball this year.

FIU started the season off slowly on offense, but they are averaging 6.38 yards per play in CUSA thus far. They have played at the 4th fastest pace of any team in league play this year. 

FIU's defense ranks 68th in yards per play allowed. MTSU ranks 118th in the nation in yards per play allowed. These two defenses have shown plenty of vulnerability.

This is a low total with two teams playing quickly and two offenses capable of scoring in bunches.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* North Texas likes to throw the football a lot, and I can't blame them since they have a star quarterback in Mason Fine. Charlotte's defense has been mediocre against the run, but they are terrible against the pass. The 49ers defense is 124th in QBR allowed, so they have been getting torched through the air. North Texas ranks 35th in the nation (2nd fastest in CUSA) in tempo as well.

Charlotte doesn't play fast, but they have hit a bunch of big gainers this year, especially in their running game. The 49ers already have 21 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. What's the weakness of the North Texas defense? Stopping the run. The Mean Green are allowing 4.77 yards per carry on the season.

I see a back and forth type of game as both teams put up a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals have a good offense this year, but they haven't faced many good defenses. They were shut down by a really good defense (Clemson) last week. Louisville has piled up huge offensive numbers against teams like Eastern Kentucky, Boston College, and Wake Forest. Virginia ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Virginia's offense ranks 122nd in tempo. The Cavs look to slow down the game. Virginia averages only 3.33 yards per carry, so they rely on the passing game quite a bit. 

The weather forecast here calls for upper 60's and 20 mph sustained winds with 1-2 inches of rain in the afternoon. This is enough to push me onto the under in this game. Look for a lot of running the ball and moving clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State defense is better than their overall statistics look so far this year. Michigan State has played a really tough slate of offenses so far this year. The Spartans took on Ohio State and Wisconsin in their last two games. Both of those offenses skewed the Michigan State defensive numbers. Michigan State's defense ranks 8th best in the nation when adjusted for strength of schedule faced.

Penn State ranks first in the nation in yards per carry allowed. The Nittany Lions front seven should be in the Michigan State backfield early and often here. Michigan State ranks 97th in the country in yards per play on offense. The Spartans have yet to show they can do much of anything on offense against quality defenses. Penn State's defense is very good.

The weather here is another plus for the under. A low 50's temperature with 15-20 mph winds and rain that picks up as the game goes on is in the forecast.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wyoming Cowboys play at the 110th fastest pace in the country (130 teams). Wyoming runs the ball consistently. The Cowboys have run the football on 76.6% of their offensive plays in conference games. They have very little passing attack, so the successful drives their offense has often take a very long time with a moving clock and small gains little by little.

Nevada plays at a slightly slower than average tempo. The Wolf Pack offense ranks 112th in the nation in yards per play. They haven't been able to find much to get them going offensively.

The early weather forecast calls for heavy winds in Laramie the whole week. Heavy wind played a big role in last week's game against New Mexico, and with winds things are likely to get even more conservative than normal for both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have a new offensive coordinator this year, and this team is much improved on the offensive end. Southern Miss is 15th in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Eagles put up 30 points against a quality LA Tech defense last week. They scored 47 points on Troy earlier this year. Their offensive numbers are pulled down a bit by being held in check by Alabama and Mississippi State, which is to be expected. This is a good Southern Miss offense.

Rice can stop the run pretty well, but the Owls aren't any good in the secondary. They rank 122nd in yards allowed per pass attempt. Southern Miss should be able to take advantage.

Southern Miss had a great defense last year, but this year they have a subpar defense. Southern Miss is 122nd in the nation in yards per play allowed, and they are 129th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Stephen Strasburg enters this game throwing the ball extremely well. Strasburg has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 12 straight starts. In 10 of those 12 games, Strasburg has allowed 2 runs or less. Also, he has been pitching late into the game. Strasburg has a whopping 43 strikeouts and one walk in his last five starts. 

Justin Verlander has been excellent all season. He pitched in some difficult spots in the last series, and the Yankees had the best lineup he faced this season. Verlander should bounce back on the big stage here. This is a guy with a bunch of experience pitching in big games, and the Nationals do have quite a few guys who strike out a lot.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this one. Eddings is the best under umpire in baseball. He has the highest called strike percentage in the majors in the last five years, and the highest strikeout/walk ratio as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Patriots are an under team to me until proven otherwise. Even in their game last week the under was the right side, but there were 3 special teams/defensive touchdowns to send the game just barely above the total.

New England has slowed their pace down dramatically this year and they are leaning on the running game more often. Tom Brady isn't surrounded by as many playmakers as he was in the past.

The Patriots defense this year is amazing. New England is a top two or three defense in the NFL (they might be the best). The Jets hit some big plays against the Cowboys, but I don't think as many of those big gainers will be available against this Pats defense.

The Jets play at a very slow pace and rely on the ground game a lot. We should see a lot of moving clock in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Eagles and Cowboys is always a heated contest. Philadelphia and Dallas both have quality quarterbacks and good skill position players around them. 

Carson Wentz has been a bit up and down in his time in the league, but he has a high upside and I think he is trending in the right direction. The Eagles have been able to get more big gainers of late, and I think they have some matchups they can exploit against a Dallas secondary that is badly banged up right now.

The Cowboys rank first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas hasn't cashed in touchdowns often enough, but I would expect that to improve. The Eagles secondary has been a problem all year long.

Jerome Boger's crew is calling this game. They are well known for defensive penalties and high scoring games. The over is 97-69 in Boger's crews contests all time. 

Take the over.