Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-13-14 | USC v. Boston College UNDER 55.5 | 31-37 | Loss | -109 | 48 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA FB Television Total* The Boston College Eagles host USC Saturday night. While Boston College isn't a talented team, they do play very hard for Coach Steve Addazio. The Eagles defense is likely to slow down USC a little more than most expect. Remember that USC is in a very bad spot here, because USC just won at Stanford and is in a letdown situation. Boston College's offense is terrible, and I would be surprised to see them put up anything more than 14 points in this game. Last year's game between these two was 35-7, and a total in the 40's sounds about right to me again this year. Too much value on the under for me to pass this one up. Take the under. |
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09-13-14 | Western Michigan v. Idaho OVER 59.5 | 45-33 | Win | 100 | 45 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The Idaho Vandals are quietly getting a much better offense. Idaho's quarterback is Mike Linehan (son of Scott Linehan from the NFL) and he is really impressing in this offense. Paul Petrino is getting this Idaho offense moving with a quick tempo offense and a lot of short passes that give their playmakers at wide receiver a chance to work in the open field. Western Michigan's defense was torched by Purdue, and Purdue's offense isn't any good. The Broncos offense is improving though, and Idaho regularly allows 40 points or more in a game. It's hard to imagine either team coming up with many stops in this one. This number is set too low. The over is 5-0 in Idaho's last 5 on turf. The over is 7-1 in their last 8 following an ATS win. The over is 7-1 in their last 8 overall. The over is 5-1 in W. Michigan's last 6 road games. A 24-3 angle. Take the over. |
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09-13-14 | Illinois v. Washington OVER 65 | Top | 19-44 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 20 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Total of the MONTH* The Washington Huskies defense has taken a major step backward this year, especially in the secondary. Washington was torched for 52 points and 573 yards of total offense by Eastern Washington last week. The most amazing statistic is that Eastern Washington threw for 475 yards in that game. Wes Lunt gives Illinois a quality quarterback who can move their offense. The Fighting Illini have had defensive problems for many years, and they aren't fixed this year. They allowed 34 points last week against Western Kentucky. Washington's top cornerback is out for this game, which should make things even tougher for the Huskies defense. Both offenses like to play very quickly, so they'll get lots of chances here. I had this total at 75 points, so this is a very big play for me. TOP Total of the Month on Washington/Illinois Over. |
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09-13-14 | Iowa State v. Iowa UNDER 49 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 94 h 33 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA FB Battle for Iowa Total* Iowa and Iowa State have played some highly physical games against each other the past few years. These games are generally relatively close, and the defenses usually have the edge. I don't see any reason to expect anything different in this game. Iowa couldn't get any offense going last weekend against Ball State, and the Hawkeyes are without star OL Scherff. The Cyclones defense appears better this year, and they have fared well against Iowa in recent seasons. Iowa's defense is tough in the trenches, and they should manhandle an Iowa State OL that is very weak. Very little offense from either side in this one. Take the under. |
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09-13-14 | Louisville v. Virginia UNDER 49 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 57 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Louisville Cardinals are transitioning to a totally different offense, and it always takes a while to get things right during that period. Virginia's offense simply can't throw the football, so they rely on the run almost exclusively. Louisville's front seven is good against the run, and I see Virginia struggling to score here. At the same time, Virginia's defense showed me a lot in their loss to UCLA earlier this year. Virginia didn't let UCLA do much of anything in that game, and that is a very good Bruins offense. Louisville's offense is going to have a rough time getting going here. Look for a lot of three and outs in this game, and if teams do get in the red zone I expect plenty of settling for field goals. The under is 4-0 in Louisville's last 4 games on grass. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 following a win by 20 points or more. An 11-0 angle. Take the under. |
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09-13-14 | UMass v. Vanderbilt OVER 45 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 90 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA FB Total Value* The Vanderbilt Commodores and the UMass Minutemen are two absolutely horrible teams. These aren't teams I would ever want to back as an ATS selection, but I'll take the value play on the over here thanks to their terrible defenses. Vandy's defense has been strong in the past couple years, but they aren't this year. UMass has such a horrible defense that they allowed 41 points to an awful Colorado offense last week. It won't be pretty in this one, but I expect the offenses to get enough on the board. Also, defensive or special teams TD's are very likely in a sloppy game like this one. Take the over. |
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09-12-14 | Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners and Oakland A's meet in a really important series for both teams. Oakland was coasting in this division not that long ago, and now they are 10 games behind the Angels and needing to hang onto a Wildcard spot. Oakland could still miss the playoffs altogether unless they get it turned around. The A's have their offense to blame. The offense has been terrible of late. Paxton is a very underrated pitcher for the Mariners, and I expect him to keep this offense quiet. Jason Hammel is a streaky pitcher, but he's been throwing it well of late. Seattle's offense has struggled the majority of the year. A big ballpark and two struggling offenses along with two elite bullpens. I like this to be a low scoring contest. Take the under. |
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09-12-14 | Baylor v. Buffalo OVER 68.5 | 63-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star ESPN CFB 100% Angle Total* The Baylor Bears and Buffalo Bulls meet in non-conference game in Buffalo Friday night on ESPN. Baylor's Bryce Petty is expected to start in this one. Petty was dinged up in the opener, but he will be ready to go here and his Heisman campaign will be on display on national television. Art Briles and this team have made it clear by their comments that they want to give Petty a boost in the Heisman race. In my opinion, that means keeping the foot on the gas and piling up the points. There's little doubt that Baylor can hang a huge number on a Buffalo defense that isn't even close to as good as they were a year ago. Remember, they scored 70 points on Buffalo last year and now they are facing a weakened defense. The Bulls should be able to put up some points on a weakened Baylor defense too. Buffalo has a good passing game, and that should help them keep the chains moving. The over is 8-0 in Baylor's last 8 September games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games. The over is 7-0 in Buffalo's last 7 non-conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 September games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games on turf. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 450 yards or more. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after giving up 200 yards or more rushing. A 42-0 angle. Take the over. |
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09-12-14 | Atlanta Braves v. Texas Rangers UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Texas Rangers offense is a total disaster right now. It's Adrian Beltre and a bunch of minor leaguers. Alex Wood is on a major roll of late, and it's hard to see that changing against this Texas lineup. Atlanta's offense has really let them down all year long, and they'll be up against a good pitcher in Derek Holland here. Holland has missed all season until September, but he is in midseason form. He has allowed just one run in his first two starts. Both of these pitchers are capable of shutting down the opposition. It's a cool night in Texas and that helps the under as well since the ball won't carry as well. The under is 6-0 in the Braves last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 3-0-2 in their last 5 as a road favorite. The under is 3-0-1 in Wood's last 4 starts as a road favorite. The under is 3-0-2 in Wood's last 5 road starts. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts following a quality start. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0-2 in Holland's last 6 starts as an underdog. A 25-0 angle. Take the under. |
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09-12-14 | Toledo v. Cincinnati UNDER 59.5 | 34-58 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Toledo Rockets will have a new quarterback for this game. Phillip Ely won the starting job, but he is injured and out for the year now. Without Ely, I look for the Rockets offense to take some time to get used to Woodside as the new starter. Cincinnati's offense is good, but I don't see the Bearcats being able to dominate on the front line against a high quality Toledo defensive line. Toledo was beaten badly by Missouri last week, and I fully expect a much better defensive effort from the Rockets in this one. Cincinnati hasn't played a game all year thus far, which is a very strange scheduling situation. As it is though, the Bearcats offense will likely need a little time to work out the kinks. I see this being a close game between two underrated defenses. Take the under. |
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09-11-14 | Miami Marlins v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Milwaukee Brewers have been in a major funk of late. They did win last night behind a great pitching performance from Wily Peralta. I give them a good chance in this one with Mike Fiers pitching as well, but the moneyline is too high for my liking. Instead, I suggest a play on the under. Mike Fiers is a guy I've liked a lot for a long time. He should have been in the Brewers rotation a long time ago. Fiers has a deceptive delivery that takes time to get used to. He has an ERA of less than 2 at home this year. Nate Eovaldi pitches against him, and Eovaldi is a youngster with electric stuff. The Brewers offense hasn't been taking advantage of scoring opportunities of late. Two young pitchers with high quality stuff here. Take the under. |
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09-10-14 | Miami Marlins v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Marlins have been playing better than expected and the Brewers are totally falling apart. Milwaukee needs a win in the worst way. Wily Peralta has pitched his best in his career at the end of the season. Cosart has been absolutely dealing of late for the Marlins. Because of the high scoring games between these two teams of late, the posted total here is elevated a little more than it should be. Dan Bellino is a solid under umpire behind the plate, and that should help both of these pitchers. I expect a close low scoring contest in Milwaukee Wednesday night. Take the under. |
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09-10-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 7.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* John Lackey's velocity has been down a bit in recent starts, which has to concern the Cardinals a bit. He hasn't pitched terribly, but he has allowed at least 7 hits in his last three outings. Alfredo Simon is struggling in the 2nd half of the season. Simon still has some numbers that make him a candidate for continued regression, and he faces a Cardinals offense that is hitting the ball much better of late. Since Molina has come back the offense has been hitting the ball the way everyone expected them to all season long. The heat and humidity in Cincinnati Wednesday night will be a big boost here too. The ball can really fly well at Great American Ballpark in these conditions. Take the over. |
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09-10-14 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals OVER 7 | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves finish out their series on Wednesday afternoon. The weather will be warm for this one, and I expect that to help the ball carry. Aaron Harang started the year on fire, but he is laboring in a big way down the stretch. I certainly expected that at some point since Harang was pitching so much better than expected, and it seems he is wearing down now. The Nationals start Stephen Strasburg here, and he has been hit hard by Atlanta throughout his career. Strasburg has an ERA of 4.62 in his career against Atlanta. With a weakening Harang and Strasburg up against a team that hits him well, a total of 7 is too low. The over is 5-0 in Harang's last 5 road starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a road underdog. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in Strasburg's last 4 starts vs. Atlanta. The over is 3-0-1 in Strasburg's last 4 starts with Marty Foster behind the dish. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. |
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09-09-14 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7 | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves have played in a bunch of low scoring games this year. It makes sense too. These are two offenses that have struggled for the majority of the season. Both of these offenses are good against left-handed pitching, but have been poor against right-handed pitching (especially Atlanta). Jordan Zimmermann and Ervin Santana have both been throwing the ball really well over their last few starts. Both bullpens are excellent and they have plenty of depth. Look for a close low scoring affair here. Take the under. |
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09-08-14 | Oakland A's v. Chicago White Sox OVER 8 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Sonny Gray appears to have hit a wall late in the year. After pitching extremely well early in the season, Gray has been roughed up of late. Since the All-Star break, he has a 4.24 ERA. He allowed 6 runs in just five innings at home against Seattle in his last outing. Hector Noesi has a 4.79 ERA at home this year. Noesi has pitched a bit better of late, but I still don't trust him. He also doesn't go deep in the game very often, and the White Sox bullpen is the worst in baseball right now. This total is set too low given the struggles of these starting pitchers. Take the over. |
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09-08-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8 | 5-0 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals have been division rivals over the past few years. Cincinnati is well out of the race this year, but the Cardinals have tons left to play for. St. Louis' bats have finally started to heat up of late and I believe the return of Yadier Molina has been the spark. The Cardinals do have a solid lineup, and I expect them to get to Dylan Axelrod. Axelrod had a career ERA of over 5 coming into this year, and his advanced metrics suggest he has been very fortunate so far this season. Shelby Miller has been up and down all year, but he has an ERA over 5 at Cincinnati. Miller has been much worse on the road in his young career than at home. The over is 3-0 in the Cardinals last 3 games. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these teams. The over is 5-0 in Miller's last 5 as a road favorite. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts overall. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 road starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. |
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09-07-14 | Buffalo Bills v. Chicago Bears OVER 47 | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Buffalo Bills offense looked bad in the preseason, and that's the only reason this number is set so low. Remember, the Bears defense was absolutely awful last year, and they didn't do much to change that in the offseason. The Bears are going to give up a lot of points this year and make mediocre offenses look good. I think that will happen in this game. On the other hand, Chicago's offense looks set for a big season. Jay Cutler has weapons all over the place at his disposal, and Marc Trestman's system worked well last year. The offense should be that much better in a second year in the same system. Buffalo's cornerbacks are going to have a hard time shutting down Marshall and Jeffery. Expect plenty of points in this contest. The over is 4-0 in the Bears last 4 games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 games played on grass. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games played in September. A 13-0 angle. Take the over. |
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09-06-14 | Texas Tech v. UTEP OVER 63 | Top | 30-26 | Loss | -112 | 69 h 60 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The UTEP Miners and Texas Tech Raiders meet Saturday night in a game where I expect the scoreboard to be lighting up. Texas Tech is top five in the nation in terms of pace. The Red Raiders are going to put up a bunch of points against a UTEP defense that was among the worst in the nation last year. UTEP's secondary is particularly weak, and Davis Webb and company will chew them up. Texas Tech's defense struggled last week against Central Arkansas, and I expect UTEP's offense to be better this year behind quarterback Jamiell Showers. UTEP might initially want to slow this game down, but once they get behind they'll be unable to do that. I made this total 71 points, so I see a ton of value on the over. The over is 4-0 in Texas Tech's last 4 following a win. The over is 7-1 in their last 8 after scoring 40 points or more last game. An 11-1 angle. Take the over big! |
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09-06-14 | Michigan State v. Oregon OVER 55.5 | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Oregon/Michigan State Totals CASH* The Oregon Ducks and Michigan State Spartans meet in what is the biggest game of the year so far in college football. Oregon's fast-paced and high flying offense against Michigan State's strong defense in a matchup that has college football fans salivating. I highly respect Pat Narduzzi (DC at Michigan State), but I'm afraid this Spartans defense has has to replace too many stars. With this being only the second game of the year, there's no way this unit will be as good right now as the Spartans defense was late last year. I think the oddsmakers have lined this total as if it were a game played at the end of last year. Oregon's fast pace should bother Michigan State. Indiana runs a similar fast paced offense with far less talent, and the Hoosiers scored 28 points on Michigan State last year. Connor Cook is playing great at quarterback, and I think he'll find holes in the Oregon secondary to led the Spartans to plenty of points as well. This total is set too low. Take the over here. |
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09-06-14 | Old Dominion v. NC State OVER 65 | 34-46 | Win | 100 | 28 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA FB Totals TKO* NC State's offense should be much better this year with Jacoby Brissett under center. Brissett was a very highly touted prospect in high school, and I think he has the potential to put up big numbers against the ACC this year. Old Dominion's defense has been awful in recent years. They gave up 80 points to North Carolina last year. Hampton's offense had no trouble moving the ball against them last week. NC State's defense is nothing special at all, and Old Dominion's offense is very good with star quarterback Taylor Heinicke running the show. Both of these teams ranked in the top 37 in the nation in terms of pace last year, so I expect plenty of snaps in this one. Take the over. |
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09-05-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8 | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers are totally falling apart. Ryan Braun just isn't hitting the ball of late, and you have to wonder if there is an injury that we don't know about there. The Cardinals pitching staff has been on fire of late. St. Louis sends John Lackey to the mound for this one, and Lackey is an above average pitcher. Mike Fiers is a pitcher I've liked for a long time. I think Fiers should have been in the Brewers rotation all year. Fiers has a deceptive delivery and unless you have seen him recently it's very tough to pick up on quickly. While the Cardinals have been playing well of late, their offense has still been in a slump. Look for both starters to pitch well here. The under is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4. The under is 5-0 in the Cardinals last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 6-0 in Fiers' last 6 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 5-0 in Fiers' last vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. |
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09-04-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 | 7-9 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Baltimore Orioles are far better than many give them credit for being, and one of the main reasons is their much improved bullpen. When you have guys like Darren O'Day and Zach Britton pitching lights out in the 8th and 9th innings it can really shorten a game. The Cincinnati Reds offense is a disaster right now. Without Joey Votto this team just can't seem to string together big innings. Jay Bruce is in a major slump and Brandon Phillips doesn't appear completely healthy. Mike Leake has pitched extremely well of late. He has a 1.61 ERA in his last 3 outings. Chris Tillman has a 2.50 ERA at home this year. Tillman is throwing the ball very well lately. The under is 21-9-2 in Tillman's last 32 home starts. Take the under in this one. |
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09-03-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8 | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Justin Verlander isn't the same pitcher he used to be, and even when he was dominating most teams he had a tough time against the Cleveland Indians. A lot of the guys in this Indians lineup seem to see the ball well against Verlander. Danny Salazar has a ton of potential, but his lack of command has hurt him against top lineups this year. Detroit has scored at least 7 runs in 5 of their last 11 games, so their offense is really clicking right now. Once Verlander leaves here, the Tigers bullpen is very capable of giving up runs in bunches too. Take the over. |
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09-03-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Colorado Rockies OVER 10.5 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total Value* The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants have been piling up the runs in this series, and I don't expect that to change in this finale. Coors Field becomes a launching pad during day games, and the temperature is expected to be in the low 90's for this one, which means the ball will be flying extremely well. Ryan Vogelsong has been torched at Coors Field in the past. The Rockies can still score runs at home. Bergman starts for Colorado and his stats suggest he probably shouldn't be in the bigs right now. The bullpen behind him is the worst in the NL. Expect a lot of runs in this one. Take the over. |
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09-03-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 7.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates meet in the series finale on Wednesday afternoon. St. Louis has gotten some momentum going of late as their offense has finally started heating up. This team has been a major underperformer on the year as a whole, and the offense has been the main reason. If the offense continues their recent pace, this team will be dangerous. Shelby Miller is in a sophomore slump, and he has 4.98 ERA in his career against the Pirates. Edinson Volquez has a 5.50 ERA in 7 career starts at St. Louis. It will be a hot day which will help the ball carry here too. The over is 7-0 in Volquez's last 7 road starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 as an underdog. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts during game three of a series. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 road starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 games. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a righty. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 6-0 in Miller's last 6 vs. the NL Central. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 on 4 days of rest. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 during game 3 of a series. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 on grass. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts when the total is set at 7 to 8.5 runs. A 63-0 angle. Take the over. |
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09-02-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 | 6-5 | Loss | -117 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland Athletics offense has been in a major slump of late. Without Yoenis Cespedes in the middle of the lineup, it seems the A's aren't the same offense. James Paxton is an impressive youngster who I think will fare well in his first career start against Oakland. A tricky lefty like Paxton is tough to pick up right away, and in this case I see the advantage going to the pitcher. Sonny Gray has struggled a bit of late, but if there were ever a team he could bounce back against its the Mariners. In 32 and 2/3 inning in his career against Seattle, he has allowed only 4 earned runs. Both teams have a great bullpen as well. Take the under here. |
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09-02-14 | New York Mets v. Miami Marlins OVER 7.5 | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Miami Marlins host the New York Mets in the second game of this series on Tuesday night. Jon Niese starts for the Mets, and Niese has been laboring in recent starts. He hasn't been nearly as sharp as he was earlier this year, and I wonder if he is wearing down a bit. Brad Penny isn't worthy of a big league starting spot, but the Marlins are thin right now so he's getting a start. David Wright has a .600 career batting average against Penny in 20 at bats. Both of these defenses are terrible as well, so unearned runs would come as no surprise in this contest. Toby Basner is a solid over umpire, which works to our advantage here. This total is too low for these pitchers. The over is 8-0-1 in the Mets last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The over is 6-0-1 in Niese's last 7 starts following a quality start in his last start. The over is 3-0-2 in Niese's last 5 starts overall. The over is 3-0 in his last 3 vs. the NL East. The over is 2-0 in his last 2 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. The over is 5-0-1 in Niese's last 6 road starts in Miami. The over is 2-0 in Penny's last 2 vs. the Mets. A 34-0 angle. Take the over. |
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09-01-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 | 6-4 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles have really impressed this year, and the Orioles are a team I've made solid money backing this season. Phil Hughes is a pitcher I've made money backing the under with, and I'm going to play the under again in this one. Hughes has been lights out on the road most of this season, and the Twins bullpen is pretty solid. Baltimore's Kevin Gausman has a lot of talent and this Minnesota lineup isn't very good right now. The Orioles bullpen is elite. While Baltimore has hit the ball well against Hughes in the past, Hughes is a totally different pitcher this year than he has been in the past. The under is 6-0 in Hughes' last 6 following a team loss. The under is 4-0 in Hughes last 4 as an underdog. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 road starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Hughes' last 5 starts after the team allowed 5 runs or more last game. The under is 5-0 in Gausman's last 5 after the team allowed 5 runs or more. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 when his opponent scored at least 5 runs in their last game. A 35-0 angle. Take the under. |
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09-01-14 | New York Mets v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7 | 6-9 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Miami Marlins and New York Mets meet early Monday for a Labor Day afternoon game. Zack Wheeler and Henderson Alvarez are two youngsters that I like quite a bit. Wheeler has really come into his own of late, and Alvarez has been amazing at home all season. Wheeler's numbers against Miami really stand out as nothing short of amazing. In five career starts against Miami, Wheeler has a 1.04 ERA. He has allowed a grand total of four runs against them in 34 and 2/3 innings. At Miami, Wheeler has allowed just two runs in 22 innings for an ERA of 0.82. Alvarez has a 1.46 ERA at home this year. Neither of these offenses are particularly impressive. The under is 4-0 in Alvarez's last 4 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 3-0-1 in the Marlins last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two in Miami. A 15-1 angle. Take the under. |
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09-01-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox are two offenses that have been stuck in neutral of late. Clay Buchholz totally shut down the Rays yesterday, and Buchholz has been struggling badly this year. The Red Sox lineup is very weak at the bottom of the order right now. Drew Smyly is a guy I've been high on this year, and he's been throwing it very well of late. De La Rosa is up and down, but I see him having success against a Rays lineup that strikes out quite a bit. Both bullpens have been throwing it well of late. Take the under in this one. |
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08-30-14 | UTEP v. New Mexico OVER 63.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA FB Total DOMINATION* The New Mexico Lobos and the UTEP Miners have two of the worst defenses in the nation. New Mexico allowed 6.2 yards per carry and 42.8 points per game last year. UTEP allowd 6.2 yards per carry and 39.3 points per game. These teams met last year and the final score was 42-35. Jamiell Showers and the UTEP offense should be much better this year with Showers getting a lot more reps in this system. UTEP has a couple good RB's as well. New Mexico's option attack (pistol) has been really successful and Bob Davie's team should score a lot of points on teams that can't stop the run this year. UTEP definitely fits right into that mold. I expect a very high scoring game. Take the over. |
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08-29-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Chicago White Sox OVER 9 | 7-1 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Justin Verlander isn't the pitcher he used to be. Verlander's ERA isn't far from five, and he has been laboring through all of his starts of late. Scott Carroll isn't a big league quality pitcher. Carroll has an ERA of 5.05 and it isn't a fluke at all. He just doesn't have good enough stuff. The White Sox offense is plenty good to score some runs here, and the Tigers should hit Carroll hard. Carroll has allowed five runs or more in six of his last 10 starts. Also important to note that these two bullpens are the worst in the majors in the past month. If we get to the bullpens early, I really like our chances of cashing this one. The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 road games. The over is 5-0 in the Tigers last 5 as a road favorite. The over is 7-0 in the Tigers last 7 vs. the AL Central. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. |
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08-29-14 | Bowling Green v. Western Kentucky OVER 56 | Top | 31-59 | Win | 100 | 316 h 40 m | Show |
*5 Star NCAA FB TOP Play Total* Bowling Green has a bunch of returning starters on offense, and they are the key guys that will make this offense thrive in 2014. Matt Johnson is the best quarterback in the Mid American Conference. Travis Greene is the best running back in the MAC. Even more importantly though, Bowling Green has a new head coach in Dino Babers. Who is Dino Babers? Babers used to work under Art Briles at Baylor and he helped install Baylor's current fast-paced high octane offense. Babers used that at Eastern Illinois the past two years, and Eastern Illinois scored more than 40 points per game last year. It's all about playing fast and getting off tons of snaps. Western Kentucky lost most of their defense from last year, and I expect Bowling Green to move the ball at will here. It won't surprise me to see massive yardage totals from the Falcons. Western Kentucky has a veteran quarterback and some solid offensive weapons. The Hilltoppers should be able to put some on the board as well. Tons of possessions in this game and a total of only 56. I love the value here. Take the over big! **This line has quickly risen. My numbers had this game at 70 points, so I still suggest a play on this one, but I would rate it 4 stars instead of 5 at the current level. Thank you** |
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08-28-14 | Tulane v. Tulsa UNDER 47 | 31-38 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star NCAA FB Opening Night Total DOMINATION* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane had a very disappointing season last year. They got horrible quarterback play and had an inexperienced defense. Tulsa is used to winning and I do expect them to be better this year. Still, Tulsa has major concerns at quarterback and running back this year, and they shouldn't be too dynamic. On the other hand, Tulane isn't used to winning and they had a great season and got to a bowl game a year ago. The Green Wave are due to regress a bit this year, but I think they'll still be competitive. The Tulsa defense returns 10 starters (as many as any team in the nation) and I expect them to be much better defensively than they were last season. Tulane's defense is what led the way last season. The matchup between these two last year finished at 14-7 Tulane. This one will be higher scoring than that, but I don't see it reaching this total. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Take the under. |
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08-27-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The under was my play in last night's meeting between these two AL East teams, and I'm going to go with the under for the second night in a row. Kevin Gausman is quickly improving on the mound, and the Tampa Bay Rays offense isn't very good. Drew Smyly has been a tremendous acquisition for the Rays. Smyly has thrown 14 innings in his career against Baltimore and only allowed one run. The under has been a big winner at home for the Orioles this year, and the under has been very good when Tampa Bay is on the road this year as well. The under is 4-0 in the Rays last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in Smyly's last 4 starts. The under is 5-0-1 in Baltimore's last 6 Wednesday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in Gausman's last 4 when the Orioles opponent scores 2 runs or less in the previous game. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. |
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08-26-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 7.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays have both been playing solid baseball of late. Both of these teams have been getting good starting pitching and quality relief pitching as well. Alex Cobb is a very good young starter who has been firing on all cylinders of late. Cobb has an ERA of 0.44 in his last three outings. Cobb has shutdown stuff, and the Orioles are now without Manny Machado in their lineup. Cobb's career ERA against the Orioles is a ridiculous 1.89 (6 starts). Wei-Yin Chen is 13-4 with a 3.76 ERA this season. The Rays offense is below average, and Chen has a solid 3.51 ERA in 11 career starts against Tampa Bay. The under is 6-0 in Cobb's last 6 starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 following a quality start. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games when allowing 5 runs or more last game. The under is 3-0-1 in the Orioles last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more. The under is 4-0-1 in Chen's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in Chen's last 4 starts following a quality start. A 40-0 angle. Take the under. |
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08-22-14 | Chicago Bears v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 45 | 6-34 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL TOP Total of the Preseason* The Seattle Seahawks host the Chicago Bears late Friday night. Seattle has great depth at the quarterback position. Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, and Terrelle Pryor form a very nice trio. Jay Cutler will play deep into this game for the Bears. The Bears have a couple very physical receivers in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. Seattle's secondary is normally very physical as well, but with the massive jump in penalties league wide in the preseason, this looks to me like a spot where Chicago will get a bunch of help from the officials. It's hard to stop the Bears receiver without being physical, and the officials aren't letting it happen so far this year. Seattle's offense should put up plenty of points against a Bears defense that simply isn't very good. Plenty of reasons to expect lots of scoring in this one. Take the over. |
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08-21-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 7 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians meet on Thursday afternoon in the finale of their three-game series. Both teams send their best starting pitcher to the mound in this one. Phil Hughes is one of the most improved pitchers in the majors this year. Hughes is throwing the ball better than he has at any other time in his career. In his last three games, he has allowed only a single run in each contest. The Indians are without Nick Swisher and David Murphy right now. Corey Kluber has been the best pitcher in baseball outside of Clayton Kershaw in the last couple months. Kluber has allowed two runs or less in 11 of his last 12 starts. He has allowed one run or less in each his last five outings. Minnesota's lineup is very weak right now. This is a get away day game, which means the lineups could be weaker than normal as well. The under is 6-0 in Kluber's last 6 road starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 as a road favorite. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 7-0 in Hughes' last 7 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts overall. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 home starts. A 41-0 angle. Take the under. |
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08-20-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Colorado Rockies UNDER 9.5 | 2-5 | Win | 102 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Betting an under with the Colorado Rockies is always a little scary, but when they don't have Troy Tulowitzki or Carlos Gonzalez in the lineup it isn't quite as scary. Colorado's offense is far from elite right now, and Danny Duffy continues to throw the ball well. Jorge De La Rosa has a 1.98 ERA in 27 and 1/3 innings with HP umpire Jeff Nelson behind the dish. That's an important stat, and De La Rosa has a solid 3.30 ERA at Coors Field this year as well. Kansas City has been inconsistent offensively this year against lefties. The wind will be blowing in and we won't have much heat in this game. I see this staying a little lower scoring than expected. Take the under. |
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08-20-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 7 | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* James Paxton has pitched very well when he has been healthy this year. He has quieted a couple of good lineups in his last two outings. He'll be up against a weak Phillies lineup here. The Phillies offense has been one of the worst in the league all season long. Cole Hamels has been bringing his "A Game" of late. Hamels has allowed one run or less in five of his last six starts. He also has a 1.66 ERA in day games so far this season. Day games can be good chances to find value on the under on get away days since some stars rest on these days. Another huge plus here is umpire Ron Kulpa. Kulpa is one of the best under umpires in the game and he'll help both pitchers. The under is 9-0-2 in the Mariners last 11 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in the Phillies last 5 interleague home games vs. a lefty. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with the total set from 7 to 8.5. The under is 7-0-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. A 32-0 angle. Take the under. |
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08-17-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Detroit Tigers OVER 8.5 | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers offense is one of the best in baseball. Chris Young is a pitcher I've backed many times this year and played the under with many times this year as well, but Young is much better at Safeco than he is on the road. This Tigers lineup can get to the best of pitchers, and Young isn't as good as his ERA appears. Opponents have a batting average on balls in play against him of just .224, which is just absurdly low. Robbie Ray has a lot of room for improvement when it comes to command, and Seattle is hitting with confidence right now. This number is a little too low. Take the over. |
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08-16-14 | Los Angeles Angels v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers offense hasn't been particularly good of late, but I do think they'll get to Matt Shoemaker some here. It will be in the upper 90's at gametime here, and that really makes the ball fly well in Arlington. Shoemaker has an ERA over 6 on the road this year. Colby Lewis has an ERA over 7 at home this season. The Angels offense demolished Lewis in his last home outing against them. I expect to see several balls leave the yard in this one. The Angels have a team that is capable of scoring in bunches and hitting multiple homers in this kind of environment against a pitcher like Lewis. The over is 5-0-1 in Lewis' last 6 home starts vs. the Angels. The over is 4-0 in Shoemaker's last 4 road starts. Take the over. |
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08-15-14 | San Diego Padres v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals offense has underperformed all year long. I continue to be confused by why this team isn't hitting any better than they are. I don't see them getting it going today though against one of the better young pitchers in all of baseball, Tyson Ross. Ross has thrown the ball extremely well of late, and his stuff is electric. Lance Lynn is a much better pitcher at home, and this Padres offense is still dead last in the majors in runs scored. John Tumpane has a slightly bigger strike zone than the average umpire, which helps us as well. The under is 5-0 in the Cardinals last 5 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed pitcher. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite. The under is 4-0 in Lynn's last 4 Friday starts. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a favorite. The under is 7-0 in Lynn's last 7 home starts. A 32-0 angle. Take the under. |
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08-15-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Miami Marlins OVER 7.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Miami Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks meet on Friday night, and I'm not impressed with either of these two starters. Trevor Cahill has pitched better of late, but he has thrown it well against poor offenses. The Marlins have actually been pretty good offensively at home this year. The Marlins start Brad Hand who isn't a major league starter in my opinion, and the fish bullpen has been overworked the last few days. Hand isn't a guy who will go deep in the game. The DBacks bullpen isn't good at all, and they have been overworked lately as well. While neither offense is elite, a total of just 7.5 with this kind of pitching setup is too good for me to pass on. Take the over. |
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08-14-14 | Oakland A's v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 | 3-7 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Kansas City Royals and Oakland Athletics meet in the series finale in Kansas City on Thursday afternoon. Kansas City is playing as well as anyone in baseball lately, and it's largely due to great starting pitching and amazing bullpen work. James Shields has been on point of late. In addition, Shields has an ERA of less than 2.5 in day games so far this year. Oakland's Jeff Samardzija has been rock solid this year, and the A's bullpen is terrific as well. With two quality starters, two good bullpens, and a get away day afternoon start time there are plenty of reasons to expect a low scoring game. The under is 4-0 in Shields's last 4 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with a total set between 7 and 8.5 runs. The under is 7-1 in the Royals last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. A 15-1 angle. Take the under. |
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08-10-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Seattle Mariners OVER 8 | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total Value* John Danks and Erasmo Ramirez are two of the most unreliable starters in the majors right now. Ramirez is getting a second chance in the majors right now, but the first stint didn't go well earlier this year. Danks has been really bad all year, and he has historically pitched poorly against many of these Seattle hitters. The White Sox offense has outperformed expectations this year. Chicago's bullpen has been downright awful of late though, and they'll be needed in this since Danks rarely goes deep into the game. Take the over here. |
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08-10-14 | Boston Red Sox v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox played long into the night on Saturday night. That means tired bullpens and it makes me like this over even more. Hector Santiago isn't a very good starter, and Rubby De La Rosa has been bad away from home in his young career. Both of these offenses are good, and I see them having a real advantage on Sunday afternoon. The temperature will be 85 degrees with the wind blowing out to center, and that's a nice benefit as well. All of the intangibles point toward an over in this one. Take the over. |
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08-10-14 | San Diego Padres v. Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 7 | 8-2 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense is a mess without Andrew McCutchen. The San Diego Padres offense has been a mess all season long. Two of the worst offenses get together here, and I expect more ugliness. In the first two games of this series, the score was 2-1 after one inning of play. The final score in each of those games was 2-1. Now, I don't expect that to happen again, but I do think this has a good chance of staying under 7. Tyson Ross is a rising star in the league. Charlie Morton has a 1.78 ERA in his career against San Diego. Take the under here. |
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08-10-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Toronto Blue Jays UNDER 8 | 5-6 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Taking the under with Bill Miller behind home plate has been extremely successful for me in the past few years. Miller has a huge strike zone, and he loves ringing guys up. Miller is a terrific under umpire any day of the week, but Sunday's are particularly good for unders with him. It's a get away day, so these afternoon games on Sunday sometimes see umpires have a bigger zone. The under is 35-15-3 in Miller's last 53 home games. It doesn't hurt that David Price and Mark Buehrle, two high quality lefties will start this game. Both of these guys tend to go deep into the game. Take the under here. |
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08-09-14 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers square off Saturday evening. Zack Greinke has been extremely consistent this year, and he has pitched well at Miller Park in the past. The Dodgers may be without Hanley Ramirez in this game, which would certainly hurt their offense. Mike Fiers has been excellent in Triple A all year long, and he has shown in the past that he can get big league hitters out. He has a sneaky delivery that can make it difficult on hitters to pick up the ball. Marty Foster is a solid under umpire behind the plate here. The under is 3-0-1 in the Dodgers last 4 Saturday games. The under is 5-0 in Greinke's last 5 starts following a quality start. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game 2 of a series. The under is 4-0 in Fiers' last 4 starts as an underdog. The under is 4-0 in Foster's last 4 Saturday games behind the plate. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. |
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08-09-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 8.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Baltimore Orioles and St. Louis Cardinals are playing in what is an important interleague series. Baltimore is playing impressive baseball of late, while St. Louis has really underperformed my expectations for them this year. The Orioles have a tremendous offense and it was like home run derby for them last night against the Cardinals. John Lackey is a decent starter, but I'm not sure he can quiet this red hot O's offense. Ubaldo Jimenez is a very inconsistent pitcher, and he's been bad at home this year. Both of these pitchers have fared poorly with umpire Laz Diaz behind the dish and he'll be there on Saturday. The over is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a team with a winning record. The over is 7-1 in the Orioles last 8 interleague games vs. a righty. The over is 4-0 in Diaz's last 4 Saturday games behind the dish. A 22-1 angle. Take the over. |
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08-07-14 | New York Mets v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7 | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jordan Zimmermann has been good to me in the last few years. He is an underrated starter who is quite consistent. The Mets offense is one of the weakest in the league. Jacob Degrom has been amazing in his rookie season for the Mets. Degrom has tremendous stuff, and he is quickly becoming a bigtime strikeout pitcher. Washington's offense hasn't been good against right-handed pitching this year, and they are without Ryan Zimmerman now. This is get away day, which usually means a key player or two will be left out of the starting lineup. Dan Iassogna has a large strike zone which will help both pitchers. The under is 4-0 in home plate umpire Iassogna's last 4 games. The under is 5-0-1 in Degrom's last 6 road starts. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 after the Mets scored 2 or less last game. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 when the team allows 5 runs or more last game. The under is 3-0-2 in Zimmerman's last 5 Thursday starts. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. |
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08-06-14 | Atlanta Braves v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 | 3-7 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves don't hit right-handed pitching well at all. The Seattle Mariners offense has been in a nasty funk of late. Both of these teams are very capable of struggling to put up runs, and they'll have tough matchups in this one. Julio Teheran has become a clear number one starter this year. Chris Young is great at Safeco Field as he induces the fly ball outs as well as anyone. It's also a get away day game, which means we might have some quality hitters taking the day off. The under is 4-0-1 in Atlanta's last 5 Wednesday games. The under is 3-0-1 in the Braves last 4 interleague games. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 interleague road games. The under is 5-0 in Teheran's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Mariners last 5 following a win. The under is 5-0-1 in Seattle's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0-2 in their last 7 interleague home games. The under is 3-0-1 in Young's last 4 Wednesday starts. The under is 8-0-1 in Young's last 9 home starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with 5 days rest. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 as a home underdog. The under is 10-0-1 in his last 11 home starts. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 72-0 angle. Take the under. |
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08-05-14 | Chicago Cubs v. Colorado Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs meet at Coors Field Tuesday night. Chicago is offensively challenged in a big way. Coors Field should help them, but I like Brett Anderson and he has been throwing the ball well of late. Colorado's offense is a shell of its former self without Troy Tulowitzki. They may also be without second best hitter Carlos Gonzalez. Michael Cuddyer is still out as well. The total is set high because it's a game at Coors Field, but these two offenses aren't very good right now. I really feel like this total is too high, so even though it's a difficult bet to make, I'm taking the value play on the under. Take the under here. |
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08-05-14 | San Diego Padres v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 7.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins offense isn't the same without Joe Mauer. San Diego's offense has been the worst in the majors by a mile all year. Phil Hughes is having a tremendous comeback season for the Twins. His ERA is much higher than it should be based on some terrible luck of late, but all his advanced metrics suggest he is a very good pitcher right now. Jesse Hahn has been excellent for the Padres, and San Diego's bullpen is one of the best in the league as well. The under is 7-0-1 in the Padres last 8 interleague games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 home games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games at home vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0-1 in Hughes' last 8 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 with a total set at 7 to 8.5. A 40-0 angle. Take the under. |
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08-04-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Oakland A's UNDER 7 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland Athletics and Tampa Bay Rays have both been playing well of late. Oakland's lineup isn't quite as strong now without Cespedes in the middle of the order, but they have a great pitching staff. Jeff Samardzija has a 2.45 ERA in his first three starts at Oakland. Alex Cobb has been great of late, and he's a young pitcher I'm high on. Cobb has a 2.34 ERA in six starts against Oakland, and he has a 1.80 ERA when pitching at Oakland. These guys are very capable of shutting down opposing offenses. Look for a low scoring game. Take the under. |
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08-03-14 | San Francisco Giants v. New York Mets UNDER 6.5 | 9-0 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Mets offense has been bad all year, and the San Francisco Giants offense has been very bad of late. Bartolo Colon has a 2.40 ERA in his career when pitching at Citi Field. Madison Bumgarner has a 1.29 ERA in his starts at Citi Field. This game has a pitcher's duel written all over it. Keep in mind that both of these bullpens are very good as well. The number is low, but it's low for a reason. Take the under. |
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08-03-14 | Texas Rangers v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Doug Eddings will be the umpire here. The under is 16-6-1 in his last 23 as HP umpire. Eddings has been the best umpire in the league for many years, and his strikes called percentage shows that. Both pitchers will get the edges in this game. The under is 35-15-3 in Eddings' last 53 Sunday games. Yu Darvish is also pitching in this one and he is totally dominating with his amazing stuff. Bauer is an improving youngster and he'll go against a Rangers offense that is a mess right now. Take the under. |
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07-31-14 | Atlanta Braves v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of Day* I'll start by saying I definitely don't like to make it a habit of playing an under that sits at 6, but in this case I do believe this will be a very low scoring game. Clayton Kershaw is on the mound for the Dodgers, and he is just out of this world good right now. Kershaw has allowed one run or less in 8 of his last 9 games. He is even better at home and the Braves may be without Jason Heyward in this one. Kershaw's consistency has been amazing. Julio Teheran is a pretty good pitcher himself, and this one has a low scoring affair written all over it. Kershaw consistently goes deep in games this year. Teheran might not, but the Braves have one of the best bullpens in the league. Even with the low number, I suggest a play on the under. Take the under here. |
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07-30-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 6.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* It's King Felix against Corey Kluber in what should be a great pitcher's duel. Kluber hasn't been around as Felix, but he has been absolutely dominating of late. Kluber's strikeout numbers are jumping, and he showed how awesome can be in his CG last time out with no walks and 10 strikeouts and no earned runs allowed. Hernandez has been as consistent as you'll ever find this year. He's just putting up 7 or 8 innings and allowing one or two runs each time out. Both of these offenses are really down in the dumps right now. It's tough for them to string together big innings, and those are really hard to come by against these pitchers. The under is 5-0 in Seattle's last 5 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in Hernandez's last 5 starts following a quality start. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 overall. The under is 5-0 in Cleveland's last 5 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 following a team loss. The under is 6-0-1 in Kluber's last 7 following 2 runs or less scored by Cleveland. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 47-0 angle. Take the under. |
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07-30-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7.5 | 5-7 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Francisco Giants offense has been absolutely terrible of late. They have some key injuries (Belt and Pagan), and they don't have good options to plug in when those guys are gone. In addition, other than Buster Posey and Hunter Pence the rest of this lineup hasn't been reliable this year. Charlie Morton has a nice 2.51 ERA in his career against the Giants. Tim Lincecum has pitched better this year, and he has a 2.61 ERA with HP umpire Culbreth in his career. Both of these teams have good bullpens as well. The under is 4-0 in the Pirates last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Wednesday games. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 following a win. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less. The under is 3-0-1 in the Giants last 4. The under is 4-0 in Lincecum's last 4 as a favorite. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 5-0 in Morton's last 5 road starts in San Francisco. The under is 8-1 in his last 9 starts overall vs. the Giants. A 40-1 angle. Take the under. |
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07-27-14 | New York Mets v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets have both had some very low scoring games of late. These bullpens have been pitching well of late, and the offenses have been inconsistent. Overall, this Mets offense is one of the worst in the league. Jimmy Nelson is a young starter who will do some special things for Milwaukee in his career. I like his chances of taming this Mets lineup. Jacob DeGrom has been throwing it extremely well of rate. I like how often he is able to miss bats. A guy with the strikeout/walk ratio of DeGrom is likely going to have success against most teams. Dan Bellino is behind the plate here, and he has consistently had one of the biggest strike zones in the league, so he should help both pitchers. Take the under. |
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07-27-14 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Philadelphia Phillies OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona have been piling up the runs in this series. I don't see any reason to expect that to stop in this one. Vidal Nuno and Roberto Hernandez are two pitchers I've tried to fade this year, and they are squaring off against one another in this one. Nuno is highly prone to the long ball, and Philadelphia can be very tough on fly ball pitchers. Hernandez has been very fortunate and advanced metrics show him continuing to decline. These are two teams that have nothing to play for and two teams without a strong bullpen. These are things that can lead to a much higher scoring game as we get into the second half of the season. At 8.5, I like the value on this play. Take the over. |
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07-26-14 | San Diego Padres v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7 | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego Padres have been an under machine all year. San Diego's offense has been on fire the last few days, but I'm not convinced they can keep it up. In fact, I think they are going to go back to being bad very soon. This is a historically bad offense, and they are short-handed now with some injured and some guys traded away. The Padres and Braves both have a good young starter going here in Despaigne vs. Teheran. These are up and comers who are capable of throwing a gem at any time. Atlanta struggles against right-handed pitching. The under is 11-0 in Teheran's last 11 home starts as a favorite of -151 to -200. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts after the Braves have scored 2 runs or less. The under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 games between these two. The under is 5-1 in the Padres last 6 Saturday games. A 24-1 angle. Take the under. |
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07-26-14 | Baltimore Orioles v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 8 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners are playing bad baseball right now. They're on a poor run almost solely because of their offense. Robinson Cano is a very good hitter, but the lineup around him isn't good enough. Chris Young is a totally different pitcher when pitching at Safeco Field. Young is a fly ball pitcher, and it is very tough to hit a home run at Safeco. With the total set at 8, the value is on the under. The under is 5-0 in the Orioles last 5. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a righty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 as an underdog. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL West. The under is 5-0 in the Mariners last 5 as a home favorite. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 9-0-1 in Young's last 10 home starts. The under is 7-0-1 in his last 8 home starts with a total of 7 to 8.5. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 following a team loss. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 when his opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0 in Norris' last 5 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 Saturday starts. A 82-0 angle. Take the under. |
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07-25-14 | San Diego Padres v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7 | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total Domination* The San Diego Padres exploded for 13 runs yesterday. San Diego has one of the worst offenses in the history of Major League Baseball. It might seem obvious, but I definitely believe a good time to look for value on an under with the Padres is after a rare offensive explosion. Atlanta will start Alex Wood in this one, and the Padres have been brutal against left-handed pitching this year. Jesse Hahn is a nice young pitcher or the Padres, and the Braves have struggled all year against righties. These are two of the best bullpens in baseball. Take the under. |
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07-24-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Corey Kluber is quickly becoming one of the best pitchers in the American League. Danny Duffy isn't quite at that level, but he has really matured in 2014. The Indians struggle badly against left-handed pitching, and Kluber has a solid history against Kansas City. Both of these offenses run very hot and cold, and they have both been cold of late. These two teams are jockeying for position in the AL Central, and this has a feel of a low scoring close game. The under is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 road starts. The under is 5-0-1 in Kluber's last 6 starts after Cleveland scores 2 runs or less. The under is 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 road starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 5-0 in the Royals last 5. The under is 7-0 in the Royals last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less. The under is 4-0 in the Royals last 4 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 6-0 in Duffy's last 6 starts. The under is 6-0 in Duffy's last 6 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 starts following a quality start. The under is 6-0 in the Royals last 6 vs. the AL Central. The under is 4-0 in Duffy's last 4 vs. the AL Central. The under is 4-0 in the Royals last 4 as an underdog. A 63-0 angle. Take the under. |
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07-24-14 | Houston Astros v. Oakland A's OVER 7.5 | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* For those of you who have read my writeups consistently over the past few years, you know that I closely follow umpire tendencies. Paul Schreiber is the single best over umpire in all of baseball. His strike zone is extremely small, and it's very likely that both starting pitchers in this one will get frustrated at the calls sometime during the contest. Scott Feldman has an ERA of 6.75 with Schreiber behind home plate. Jeff Samardzija has an ERA of 4.70 with Schreiber. Feldman has also been terrible against Oakland. He has a 6.10 ERA against Oakland, and an 8.39 ERA at Oakland. The ball flies much better during the daytime in Oakland. The over is 4-0 in Feldman's last 4 starts after the Astros scored 5 runs or more last game. The over is 4-0 in the Astros last 4 during game 3 of a series. The over is 6-0 in Feldman's last 6 games following a quality start. The over is 3-0-1 in Schreiber's last 4 games behind home plate. The over is 5-1 in Oakland's last 6 home games. In all a 22-1 angle. Take the over. |
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07-22-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 8 | 3-4 | Win | 102 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Cincinnati Reds offense is a mess right now. Joey Votto is the heart and soul of the lineup and he's out and Brandon Phillips (who is a great run producer) is out as well. Zack Cozart is one of the worst hitting shortstops in baseball and he is hitting second in the Reds order right now. Jimmy Nelson is a very highly rated prospect who I expect will do very well in his career, and I like his chances of bouncing back from a poor start last time out. Homer Bailey started slowly, but he has come on nicely in the last couple months. He is a quality pitcher who is entering his prime right now. Nice number here. Take the under. |
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07-19-14 | San Francisco Giants v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Play of Day* The Miami Marlins offense isn't as good as they appeared in the first half of the season. Miami doesn't have many reliable run producers, and I see them coming back down to earth offensively. The Giants offense is better than last year, but they aren't nearly as consistent as the best offenses in baseball. Tim Hudson has been great for the Giants this year. He has had some minor speed bumps of late, but I expect a solid outing here. Henderson Alvarez has been tremendous this year, and he is much better at home. A pitching duel is likely here. Take the under. |
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07-13-14 | Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics typically play a bunch of low scoring games to start with, and we're getting two underrated pitchers in this one. Chris Young really knows how to pitch at Safeco. Young is a fly ball pitcher, and Safeco is a place where fly balls go to die. Young has a 2.81 career ERA at Safeco. He also has a great 2.52 ERA against Oakland. Sonny Gray is a tremendous young pitcher who has pitched well on the road. Gray has a stellar 1.44 ERA in four career starts against Seattle. He has 0.75 ERA at Safeco. With two great bullpens behind them, there is good reason to believe this one will be low scoring. The under is 4-0-1 in the A's last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more last game. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 as a favorite of -110 to -150. The under is 4-0-1 in the Mariners last 5 as a home underdog. The under is 8-0-1 in Young's last 9 starts on 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts as an underdog. The under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 home starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 starts as an underdog. The under is 5-0-1 in his last 6 starts vs. AL West. The under is 8-0-1 in his last 9 home starts. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 starts with the total set at 7 to 8.5. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 following a quality start. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Young's last 4 starts when Seattle's opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. A 76-0 angle. Take the under. |
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07-12-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Cleveland Indians OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Cleveland Indians offense has been significantly better at home versus on the road. Scott Carroll is coming off a masterful performance against the Red Sox, but his past tells me he's unlikely to duplicate that effort in this one. Carroll has never been very good even in the minor leagues. Zach McCallister has an ERA of almost 6 this season, and he has never pitched well at Progressive Field. The over is 20-7 in the Indians last 27 home games. With these two pitchers on the mound, there is a good chance we will see quite a few runs in this one. Take the over. |
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07-11-14 | Miami Marlins v. New York Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
*5 Star MLB TOP Play Total* The New York Mets and Miami Marlins square off on Friday night. These teams have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. Miami's offense was decent earlier this year, but they are coming back to earth. The Mets offense has been bad all year. On the other hand, the Mets have been getting surprisingly nice bullpen work. Henderson Alvarez has a 2.21 ERA in 6 starts against the Mets in his career. He has a nice 1.38 ERA at Citi Field. Wheeler has a sparkling 0.96 ERA in four career starts against the Marlins. This game has a pitcher's duel written all over it. The under is 3-0-1 in Wheeler's last 4 starts vs. Miami. The under is 4-0-1 in Alvarez's last 5 starts vs. the Mets. The under is 13-2-2 in the last 17 meetings between these teams. A 20-2 angle. Take the under big! |
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07-10-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. St. Louis Cardinals OVER 8 | 9-1 | Win | 102 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Edinson Volquez and Shelby Miller are both on my fade list right now, and that makes this over a play for me. Volquez is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in all of Major League Baseball. Volquez has pitched great in his last three outings, but that doesn't mean much here. What means more to me is his career 6.91 ERA when pitching at St. Louis. Shelby Miller was awesome in his rookie season last year, but his mechanics appear off this year and he has been struggling no matter where he pitches of late. Miller has a 4.70 ERA against Pittsburgh. There should be plenty of scoring opportunities for both teams. Take the over here. |
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07-10-14 | New York Yankees v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Cleveland Indians offense is much better on their home field. Cleveland lost a heartbreaker last night against the Yankees, and they need this one to win the series. Cleveland averages 4.60 runs against right-handed pitching, and David Phelps is nothing better than mediocre. The Yankees bullpen isn't very good either. Cleveland's T.J. House is a fill-in starter who allows at least 3 or 4 runs every game up to this point. The Yankees have struggled against righties, but they average 4.43 runs per game against left-handed pitching. This total should probably be 9, so we're getting solid value here. Take the over. |
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07-09-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -116 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox offense is 27th in the league in runs scored. That's truly amazing when you consider the expectations that were there for this lineup in the preseason. Chris Sale has a career ERA of 0.71 against Boston, and he'll have some extra motivation here. For some ridiculous reason, John Farrell left Chris Sale off the All-Star roster and now he is in the final vote. Sale absolutely deserves to be on the team, and he'll get to show Farrell in person on Wednesday night. Boston's lineup has been in a massive slump of late, and it's hard to imagine them coming out of that slump against one of the best pitchers in baseball. Rubby De La Rosa has a career ERA at Fenway of 0.48 (22 innings). De La Rosa has thrown very well overall this year, and this White Sox lineup is no better than mediocre. A huge benefit here is having Doug Eddings behind the dish. Eddings is calling about 65% of pitches a strike, which is 2-3% higher than some other umpires. That 2 or 3% makes a huge difference. Eddings is probably the single best under umpire in the game today. The under is 6-0 in Sale's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0 in Sales' last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 3-0-1 in De La Rosa's last 4 starts as an underdog. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts overall. A 17-0 angle. Take the under. |
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07-08-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 | 2-0 | Win | 103 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins have two of the worst offenses in baseball to start with and they are both short-handed right now. The Twins are really in bad shape without Joe Mauer in the lineup. Minnesota looked hapless last night in Seattle and Chris Young is liable to make them look that bad again. Young is great at utilizing the big park in Seattle and getting long fly ball outs. The Twins have very little pop in their lineup right now. Phil Hughes loves pitching at Safeco too. He has a sparkling 0.82 ERA in his career there. Both bullpens have been throwing very well of late too. The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite. The under is 7-0-1 in Young's last 8 home starts. The under is 5-0 in Young's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 following a quality start. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 during game 2 of a series. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 with the total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. A 50-0 angle. Take the under. |
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07-07-14 | San Diego Padres v. Colorado Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies are in a horrible tailspin right now. Without Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer the offense isn't as dangerous, and the pitching staff has been horrible. Tyler Matzek has actually been their best pitcher of late, though I don't fully trust him either. The only reason I like him in this matchup is he is up against a San Diego lineup that bats less than .200 as a team against lefties. That is just amazing and pathetic really. Ian Kennedy had a career 2.88 ERA against the Colorado Rockies. He has a very nice 3.56 ERA at Coors Field. A total of 10.5 here is just too much. Kennedy is good and the Padres bullpen is great. The Padres bats are terrible. The under is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Padres last 4 during game one of a series. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 8-0 in Kennedy's last 8 starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts following a quality start. The under is 5-0 in Kennedy's last 5 starts as a road underdog. The under is 2-0-2 in Matzek's last 5 starts. A 35-0 angle. Take the under. |
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07-06-14 | Chicago Cubs v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Chicago Cubs just traded away two very good pitchers, but let's not forget about Jake Arrieta. Arrieta is having a stellar season in 2014. He has a highly touted prospect in Baltimore, but never reached his potential. He's doing that and more in Chicago now. He is now throwing an amazing cutter that has made all the difference in the world. Arrieta has a 1.81 ERA, and it is no fluke based on advanced metrics either. Jordan Zimmmermann is a very solid starter who is consistently very good. He gives a quality start almost every time out on the mound. These are two offenses that don't hit right-handed pitchers well either. Look for both pitchers to go deep into this one and throw it well. The under is 7-1-3 in Zimmermann's last 10 starts following a quality start in his last appearance. The under is 4-0-2 in Arrieta's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0-2 in his last 6 starts with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0-1 in Zimmermann's last 5 starts when the opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. A 19-1 angle. Take the under. |
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07-05-14 | Houston Astros v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Angels offense is much better now that Josh Hamilton is healthy and back in the lineup. Mike Trout is the best all around player in the game, and he continues to shine on a nightly basis. Scott Feldman is a pitcher I like to fade when given the right opportunity. Feldman has a 7.24 ERA with HP umpire Adrian Johnson in his career. He also has a 5.44 ERA in his career when pitching in Anaheim. Hector Santiago isn't really a guy that can be trusted either though. He has a 5.19 ERA against Houston. The Astros are a much better lineup against lefties than righties. Both of these bullpens are terrible. Houston's bullpen is dead last in the majors and the Angels are 24th out of 30 teams. Nice value here. Take the over. |
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07-05-14 | Kansas City Royals v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Cleveland Indians offense has been much better at home than on the road this year. Kansas City's offense slumbered through the first couple months, but they have been on fire of late. With Jeremy Guthrie and T.J. House toeing the rubber here, I can't understand why we see a posted total of only 8. I think this one should be at 9. Guthrie has a 6.48 ERA in his career with HP umpire Guccione in his career. He also has a 6.38 ERA pitching at Progressive Field. T.J. House has a 4.28 ERA, and he's less than dominating in his rookie year. There's no reason to expect either offense to get shut down in this one, especially with an umpire behind the plate who will make the pitchers work as he denies them the corners of the strike zone. The over is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 home games vs. a righty. The over is 10-1 in Cleveland's last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. An 18-1 angle. Take the over. |
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07-05-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 7 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Felix Hernandez is throwing the ball better this year than he has at any other time during his career, and that is definitely saying something considering the type of career he has had. Hernandez has struggled when pitching at US Cellular in the past, but that was against better White Sox lineups. In recent weeks, the White Sox lineup has started to show their true colors, and I don't like their chances against King Felix. Jose Quintana went through a bad stretch a few weeks ago, but his last two outings have been great. The Mariners have been having trouble hitting lefties in the past month. Cool weather in Chicago will allow the park to hold more fly balls than normal. The under is 6-0 in Seattle's last 6 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0-2 in Quintana's last 7 Saturday starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 as a dog of +110 to +150. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home underdog. A 24-0 angle. Take the under. |
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07-04-14 | New York Yankees v. Minnesota Twins UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Twins offense isn't even close to the same without Joe Mauer in the lineup. This is a lineup that has been struggling even with him in the middle of the order, and I expect for things to get even worse without him. Chase Whitley has struggled in his last couple outings, but advanced statistics suggest he has gotten some bad luck of late. Whitley is a solid young pitcher, and I like this matchup for him. Kyle Gibson starts for the Twins. Gibson has a tremendous 1.5 ERA at home this year. The Yankees have had trouble against right-handed pitching all season long. Relatively cool weather and a nice breeze blowing in towards home plate will help here as well. The under is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 Friday games. The under is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 games following a win. The under is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5 runs.The under is 5-0 in Gibson's last 5 starts on 4 days of rest. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. |
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07-04-14 | Chicago Cubs v. Washington Nationals UNDER 7.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -124 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Chicago Cubs pounded out 16 runs in their series finale in Boston Wednesday night. That isn't the norm for the Cubs' offense though, and I see no reason to expect their offensive explosion to continue. Tanner Roark starts here for the Nationals, and he has been lights out at home. In his career, he has a 1.28 ERA when pitching in Washington. Jason Hammel pitches for the Cubs. Hammel is having the best season of his career, and he is likely to be traded before the deadline. This is a big ballpark to start with, and the wind is expected to be blowing in at about 10-15 mph throughout this game. Both offenses struggle against right-handed pitchers. The under is 7-1-1 in Roark's last 9 home starts. The under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs last 5 games as a road underdog. The under is 3-0-1 in the Nationals last 4 games when their opponent has allowed 5 runs or more in the previous game. A 14-0 angle. Take the under. |
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07-03-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 7 | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants are really struggling to put up runs of late. The Giants were shut out last night by Adam Wainwright and the Cardinals, and San Francisco has been shut out in 2 of their last 3 games and 3 of their last 9. The Cardinals offense hasn't been any better. St. Louis has been shut out three times in their last six contests, and they have only scored more than two runs one time in their last six games. St. Louis struggles badly against lefties on the year, and they'll face a very good lefty here in Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is one of the top five lefties in the majors in my book. Carlos Martinez is a solid young pitcher who shows a lot of promise. Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here, and he has a huge strike zone. Bumgarner has a sparkling 0.32 ERA in his career with Kulpa behind the dish. That means he has allowed only one run in 28 and 1/3 innings. Expect a low scoring affair. The under is 6-0-1 in the Cardinals last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 2-0-2 in Martinez's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 when their opponent scores two runs or less. The under is 11-1 in the Cardinals last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 23-1 angle. Take the under. |
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07-01-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees OVER 7.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Hiroki Kuroda has a ridiculous 6.94 ERA in his career against Tampa Bay. No other team has blasted him the way the Rays have. Tampa Bay's offense is slowly showing signs of coming back to life. David Price isn't having a dominating season, and he is only mediocre in his career at Yankee Stadium. The weather is a factor here. A temperature in the mid 80's and wind blowing out 15 mph at gametime is a recipe for a lot of long fly balls that turn into home runs. Both bullpens are subpar as well. With the total set this low, I'm taking the over. |
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06-29-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 8 | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jorge De La Rosa and Yovani Gallardo will start here for the Rockies and Brewers respectfully. Both of these guys have struggled badly against the lineup they must face on Sunday afternoon. The Colorado Rockies are playing some horrible baseball of late, but it really hasn't been because of a lack of offense. Colorado should be able to put up a few runs against Gallardo. De La Rosa has struggled all season, and the Brewers offense is locked in of late. The Rockies bullpen is horrible so there shouldn't be any relief there. The over is 3-0-2 in De La Rosa's last 5 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 runs. The over is 4-0-1 in his last 5 road starts. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts against the NL Central. The over is 5-0-2 in his last 7 road starts versus a team with a winning record. A 15-0 record here. Take the over. |
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06-28-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Texas Rangers UNDER 8 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers are struggling offensively of late. Luckily for them they do have Yu Darvish on the hill in this one. That means they should have a fighting chance to win even if their bats struggle. Phil Hughes has been amazing this year, and I was very surprised to see how well he has pitched against Texas in the past. Hughes has a sparkling 2.09 ERA against Texas in his career. Even more impressive is his 1.52 ERA at Texas. Yu Darvish has a 2.92 ERA against Minnesota, and Darvish has been at his best this year. Both these starters have shut down type of stuff. The under is 6-0 in the Twins last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 5-0 in the Twins last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0-1 in Hughes' last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 starts during game 2 of the series. The under is 3-0-1 in Texas' last 4 as a favorite. The under is 6-1 in Darvish's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 9-1-1 in the Twins last 11 games following a loss. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams in Texas. A 40-2 angle. Take the under. |
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06-27-14 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 7 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals have struggled badly against left-handed pitching all season long. Ryu is one of the top left-handed pitchers in the league. This is a guy who is dominating even more this year than he did last season. Ryu is particularly special when pitching at Dodger Stadium. Remember, at night this a very pitcher-friendly ballpark. Carlos Martinez will start for the Cardinals and I'm pretty high on his potential. The Dodgers will likely be without Hanley Ramirez again, and he is a vital part of this offense. Last night these teams played to a 1-0 final. I expect another low scoring game here. The under is 7-0 in the Cardinals last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Cards last 4 after scoring 2 runs or less. The under is 3-0-1 in the Cardinals last when their opponent scored 2 or less last game. The under is 3-0-1 in Ryu's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 vs. the NL Central. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. |
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06-25-14 | New York Yankees v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Hiroki Kuroda has been the Yankees most consistent pitcher the last couple years, but he is showing signs of breaking down. Kuroda is 39 years old, so it shouldn't come as a big surprise. Kuroda is having his worst season as Yankee this year. He has struggled in the past in Toronto too. He has a career 5.65 ERA at the Rogers Centre. Drew Hutchison has an ERA of slightly higher than 8 at home this year. He also has an ERA above 7 in his career against the Yankees. This Yankees offense is showing signs of coming together of late. This is a low total for two solid offenses. The over is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 during game 3 of a series. The over is 3-0-1 in Kuroda's last 4 starts on astroturf. The over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 6-1 in the Jays last 7 overall. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 21-1 angle. Take the over. |
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06-24-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 | 8-2 | Win | 102 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers hit .275 against left-handed pitchers. Texas scores almost 6 runs per game against lefties on the year. They'll also have plenty of chances to score on a bad Detroit bullpen. On the other side, I see tons of chances for Detroit's very good lineup to score on Colby Lewis and a bad Rangers bullpen as well. Lewis has a 6.02 ERA in his career against Detroit, and he is on the downswing in his career as well. Detroit is very capable of putting up a big number on their own here. The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 following a win. The over is 10-1 in the Tigers last 11 road games vs. a righty. The over is 4-0 in Smyly's last 4 road starts with a total at 9 or higher. The over is 4-0 in Texas' last 4 games vs. a lefty. The over is 5-0 in Lewis' last 5 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in Lewis' last 4 home starts with a total of 9 or higher. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 34-1 angle. Take the over. |
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06-22-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8 | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Max Scherzer won the Sy Young award last season, but this season has been a struggle. Scherzer has been way off his game in the past month. For his career, Scherzer has a 4.99 ERA when pitching in Cleveland. This Indians lineup has done well against him in the past, and I expect several runs from them here. Josh Tomlin pitches for the Indians in this contest, and he has a 5.40 ERA in his career against Detroit. This Tigers lineup is one of the best in baseball. A total set at 8 is just too low. The over is 4-0 in Detroit's last 4 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 6-0 in Cleveland's last 6 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 4-0 in Tomlin's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in Tomlin's last 5 after the Indians allowed at least 5 runs last game. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 games between these two in Cleveland. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 meetings overall. A 32-0 angle. Take the over. |
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06-21-14 | Texas Rangers v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Late Night Bailout* Nick Martinez never pitched in AAA. He made the jump from AA and looked solid in the early going this season, but Martinez has really hit the skids of late. This Angels lineup is packed full of power, and I expect them to get lots of base runners against Martinez. Jered Weaver isn't the pitcher he used to be, and the Rangers are certainly capable of putting several runs on the board. Both of these bullpins are subpar, and that helps our cause. Warm weather and wind blowing out to center field is another big factor here. Take the over. |
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06-21-14 | Detroit Tigers v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* To say Justin Verlander has slipped is a massive understatement. Verlander has totally fallen off a cliff this year and he's been particularly bad in recent weeks. He isn't as bad as he has pitched of late, but he certainly isn't the pitcher he used to be. Verlander has actually struggled quite a bit with the Indians in the past, even when he has been excellent. Trevor Baeur is nothing better than an average pitcher and I don't see him quieting this strong Tigers lineup. The Tigers pen is the worst in the majors, and that could play a role here too. The over is 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 on 4 days of rest. The over is 7-0 in his last 7 starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. The over is 5-0 in his last 5 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The over is 7-0 in the Indians last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 games at Cleveland between these teams. A 39-0 angle. Take the over. |
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06-21-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8.5 | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Totals Take Down* Mike Leake has always struggled at Great American Ballpark. Leake has pitched well on the road, but he seems to consistently get into trouble when pitching at home. Toronto's offense was slumping until last night, but they broke out with 14 runs in last night's comeback victory. The Blue Jays have tons of guys who can take advantage of this small ballpark especially on a warm summer day. J.A. Happ has bad career numbers against the Reds, and the Reds lineup has gotten healthy. Expect both teams to put up quite a few runs here. Take the over. |
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06-21-14 | New York Mets v. Miami Marlins UNDER 8 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB UNBEATEN Total* The Miami Marlins and New York Mets have a long track record of playing low scoring games against each other. There will be two quality youngsters on the mound in Koehler and DeGrom in this one. Koehler pitches much better on his home field, and his track record against the Mets is amazing. In 9 games against the Mets in his young career, he has a 2.47 ERA. DeGrom has very good stuff and is coming off his worst start of the year. I expect a bounceback. Ron Kulpa is behind the dish here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. The under is 6-0-1 in the Mets last 7. The under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 as an underdog of +110 to +150. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 2-0-2 in DeGrom's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Koehler's last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 7-0-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams in Miami. The under is 4-0 in Koehler's last 4 starts vs. the Mets. A 45-0 angle. Take the under. |
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06-21-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Chris Young has pitched great in Seattle, but on the road he struggles. He'll be up against a Kansas City lineup that is as hot as anyone in baseball. The Royals have excelled all year against right-handed pitchers. Jason Vargas pitches for the Royals here, and he is also due for some regression. Robinson Cano has torched Vargas in the past, and he should help the Mariners take advantage of scoring chances in this one. Scott Barry is the home plate umpire for this one, and he has a small strike zone. The weather should help too with the temperature in the low 90's and win blowing out. Expect plenty of runs. Take the over. |
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06-20-14 | New York Mets v. Miami Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION Play* The Miami Marlins offense started out on fire this year, but they have been slowly regressing back toward where they should be of late. This Miami offense is certainly better than they have been, but they also aren't as good as they looked earlier this year. Dice K has pitched pretty well this year, and the Mets bullpen is the most improved in baseball from last year. Miami's Henderson Alvarez has an ERA well below 2 at home this year. The Mets offense is terrible, and the Marlins and Mets have a nice history of low scoring games. The under is 7-0-1 in the Mets last 8 games with a total set at 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 5-0-1 in the Mets last 6 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following a win. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. a right-handed starter. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 as an underdog. The under is 3-0-1 in Alvarez's last 4 home starts. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 home starts with a total of 8 or lower.The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 between these teams in Miami. The under is 3-0-1 in Alvarez's last 4 starts vs. the Mets. A 42-0 angle. Take the under. |
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06-18-14 | Cincinnati Reds v. Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7.5 | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Play of Day* Alfredo Simon has certainly pitched his best baseball of his career so far this year, but there's no doubt he is due for some serious regression. Simon's ERA is just 2.95 for the year, but his FIP is 4.48. Simon has benefited from a ridiculously low batting average on balls in play against him (.242). The league average is near .300. The Pirates offense has heated up in a big way of late. Cincinnati's offense is much much better with Joey Votto and Jay Bruce healthy. Todd Frazier is swinging it really well too. Edinson Volquez's control problems hurt him a lot against deep lineups like the Reds. A total set at just 7.5 with two pitchers I'm low on equals a strong over play for me. Take the over here. |