*3 Star Play Under* The first time these two teams met it stayed well under the total at 60-58. The pace of the game was just 59 possessions. These two teams have a history in recent meetings of slowing the pace down and playing the game completely in the halfcourt.

UC Davis is excellent defensively, but they have one main flaw on defense. UC Davis fouls too much and puts the opposition at the line a lot. UC Riverside is a team that doesn't take advantage of that flaw though. UC Riverside is dead last in the Big West in free throw attempts/possessions. UC Davis does a great job contesting shots and UC Riverside will have a hard time here getting good looks.

UC Davis is very poor offensively. They have poor spacing and they aren't a good passing team. UC Davis is 333rd in the nation in offensive efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Carolina A&T Aggies are a really bad team, especially without star Landon Glasper. Glasper was suspended indefinitely and announced a few days ago he has entered the transfer portal. Ryan Forrest is also suspended indefinitely from the NC A&T team. Forrest averages 19.1 points per game and Glasper averages 18.5 points per game. 

In the three games they have played without Forrest and Glasper, the Aggies have scored 59, 63, and 62 points. Glasper is the guy that runs the offense and they really badly miss him. 

Elon is the much better team here, and the Phoenix like to play very slowly. Elon is 338th in the country in average possession length. They will be looking to use the clock with the lead late in this game. 

I think the market adjustment to Elon's offense has been too small.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Youngstown State Penguins have played quicker as the year has gone on, and they have improved on the offensive end. Youngstown State has had five straight games finish with 159 points or more. The Penguins lost the first meeting with Fort Wayne 90-81 and that game was played to a blistering pace of 80 possessions.

Fort Wayne has been the most consistent offense in the Horizon League this season. Fort Wayne has scored 87 points or more in six of their last ten games. Fort Wayne shoots the ball very well from 3 point range and in the midrange, and Youngstown State's defense is weak in those areas. Fort Wayne is also great at forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. Youngstown State is a terrible transition defense.

Youngstown State is good on the offensive glass. The Penguins should get some second chance opportunities here. 

The last three meetings between these two teams have had 178, 160, and 171 total points. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Mason Patriots are #2 in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. George Mason's defense has traveled in a big way this year. George Mason has been far better on defense on the road than at home. George Mason is allowing just 0.855 points per possession in Atlantic 10 road games. 

George Mason has seen 9 of their last 12 games stay at 124 points or lower in regulation. The Patriots are 322nd in the nation in tempo. Offensively, George Mason relies too much on free throws to score. They are 15th in FTA/FGA, but St. Louis is 15th in the nation at defending without fouling. 

St. Louis is a very solid 45th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They have done a great job protecting the paint, and George Mason looks to get into the paint as often as possible on offense. On offense, St. Louis has been turning it over far too much and wasting scoring chances.

This should be a hard fought game and I like it to stay under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs offense hasn't been as dominant this year as it has been in past seasons, but Kansas City still has more upside than many believe on that side of the football. Patrick Mahomes is still the top quarterback in the NFL. Mahomes is capable of roasting any defense in the league when he is at his best. Travis Kelce isn't what he once was, but I expect him to have a big game in a one game sample like this. The Chiefs also have a very good offensive line. Both Pacheco and Hunt are more than capable out of the backfield too.

The Philadelphia Eagles have a blueprint for success with the running game here. The Buffalo Bills were highly successful running the ball on the Chiefs last time out. The Eagles have a superstar running back in Saquon Barkley. The Eagles also have arguably the best offensive line in the NFL. Jalen Hurts is healthier than he has been in quite a while. The Eagles have good wideouts and an excellent tight end.

This game is played on a fast track in the dome in New Orleans. NFL playoff games played in a dome are 37-18 (67.3% overs) since 2004. When the total is below 50, the dome game playoff overs are 25-11.

These two put on a high scoring Super Bowl a couple years ago. I don't think this one will be that high scoring, but I do like it to go over this much lower posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two teams with major defensive weaknesses. The Big Sky is known for terrible defense, and these two are 7th and 9th out of 10 in the conference in defensive efficiency. 

Weber State is the worst defensive rebounding team in the league. Idaho State is the best offensive rebounding team in the league. Weber State 

Both of these teams have seen 7 of their last 10 games go over this posted total. In the Big Sky, this is a pretty low posted total.

Idaho State has allowed 70 points or more in six straight games. They have allowed 75.6 points per game in their last five games. 

Weber State is first in the league in FTA/FGA and Idaho State fouls more than the average team. 

Both teams have sped up their pace a bit in league play.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Sacred Heart Pioneers are the fastest paced team in the MAAC. Sacred Heart wants to get out in transition and get up a lot of shots from 3 point range. Sacred Heart is up against a Fairfield team that is 361st in 3 point field goal percentage defense (out of 364 teams in the country). Sacred Heart has been excellent offensively away from home, and Fairfield is one of the worst defenses in the country.

Fairfield has played a bit quicker of late, and I think Sacred Heart can force the pace in this game. The Sacred Heart defense is a bottom 50 unit in the country as well. Fairfield's offense has been inconsistent, but this is one of the worst defenses they have faced. I think they can do enough here.

This is two defenses who are both bad in the halfcourt and don't force many turnovers at all.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers have seen 11 of their last 12 games finish with a total of 133 points or less. West Virginia has slowed the pace down quite dramatically in conference play. The Mountaineers are short on offensive weapons, but they are top 18 in the country in all the major defensive efficiency stats. 

West Virginia is dead last in FTA/FGA and offensive rebounding percentage, so they aren't likely to take advantage of that weakness on the Utah defense. 

Utah's offense is averaging 1.14 points per possession on their home floor, but they are averaging just 0.99 points per possession on the road. The Utes have a tough task in front of them here.

These are two smart coaches who I expect to have their teams prepared. Coach Devries has gotten amazingly consistent defense out of West Virginia all season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Illinois Salukis are coached by Scott Nagy, who has a long history of being a very good offensive minded coach. Nagy's teams like to play quickly. Many of the teams in the Missouri Valley Conference don't like to play quickly,  but in UIC the Salukis have an opponent who will be happy to run with them.

UIC is 76th in the nation in overall tempo. The Flames have scored 78 points or more in seven straight games. They have scored 83 or more in three of their last four. UIC has been better offensively on the road, and their defense has been awful away from home. 

Southern Illinois won 89-85 at UIC in late January. That game was played to 72 possessions. I think this is another quick one that gets past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets are playing far slower than any other team in the NBA. Brooklyn's average pace of 93.5 possessions per game in their last eight games is nearly 3 full possessions slower than the second slowest paced NBA team during that span. In that time, seven of the Nets eight games have stayed under this total.

The Miami Heat are 25th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo. Miami is also only 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last eight games. Brooklyn is 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency.

The last four meetings between the Heat and Nets have finished with 205 points total or lower. That includes one game that finished 96-95 with an overtime. Brooklyn has scored 97 points or fewer in each of the last three meetings between these two.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky is a league where the defenses are very weak every year. Blindly betting overs in this league has been a very solid moneymaker through the years. Big Sky overs at 150 or lower are nearly a 7% ROI in the last 15 years.

Idaho ranks as the worst defense in the Big Sky so far this year. The Vandals are 347th out of 364 in the nation in defensive efficiency. They have allowed at least 76 points in each of their last four games. 

Portland State has locked down several teams when playing at home, but their defense hasn't traveled. The Vikings are 354th in the nation in open 3 rate allowed, and Idaho has multiple guys who can shoot it well from outside.

The first game between these two stayed a little below this total, but the teams combined to go 10/50 from 3 point range. I would expect some regression toward the mean here.

Portland State runs a ton of pick and roll ball screens on offense and Idaho is bottom 40 in the country defending those. 

Idaho is shooting nearly 80% from the FT line in conference play and Portland State fouls at a higher than average rate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Mason Patriots have been consistently very low scoring. George Mason has seen 7 of their last 9 games finish at 124 points or lower in regulation. George Mason is second in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. This group can lock teams down on the defensive end.

George Mason is 319th in the country in tempo. The Patriots have been very good at playing the game at their style. 

George Washington was 264th in defensive efficiency last year. They are 121st in defensive efficiency so far this year. George Washington has gotten a bit worse on offense, and they are playing a much slower tempo than they did a year ago.

The first meeting between these two went into double overtime, but it was just 61-61 at the end of regulation.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. John's Red Storm are a completely different team than they were a year ago. Last year, St. John's was 18th in offensive efficiency and 57th in defensive efficiency. This year, St. John's is 70th in the nation in offensive efficiency, and a stunning 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

St. John's has the 7th highest blocked shots rate in the country. The Red Storm have held five straight opponents to 66 points or fewer in regulation. 

Marquette is an impressive 16th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Shaka Smart's team is underrated on this end of the floor. I think they can mix in some zones here to bother the St. John's offense.

This game is being played at Madison Square Garden. It's a tremendous under venue in general, and the last 67 St. John's games at MSG are 43-24 to the under. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors unique zone pressure defense is very tough to handle, especially without some experience against it in the near past. Rider is about to have a tough task on Sunday.

Rider ranks 360th out of 364 teams in the country in shot selection. Rider is 312th in the country in tempo as well, so they are looking to slow things down on offense.

Merrimack is 320th in the nation in tempo. The Warriors are 280th in offensive efficiency. Merrimack is 318th in the country in shot selection. The Warriors get virtually no second chances and they struggle to get to the free throw line.

Rider will likely have to rely on second chance points here, but they are only 215th in second chance conversion percentage.

This should be a sloppy game where both teams move very slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Cal State Bakersfield is dead last in the nation in free throws attempts allowed per 100 trips up the court. They are second last in the nation in FTA/FGA on the defensive end. They are fouling machines. Cal State Northridge is 102nd in FTA/FGA on offense. They are going to get to the line a lot here.

Cal State Northridge is 359th in FTA/FGA on defense. Cal State Bakersfield is 71st in the country in FTA/FGA. The Roadrunners should get to the line a bunch as well. 

Cal State Northridge is 10th in the nation in tempo. They are going to push the pace. Northridge is excellent on the offensive glass too. 

The first meeting between these two was 184 points with 68 free throw attempts. It isn't likely to be that high again, but I like it to be higher than this total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Valparaiso Beacons have been struggling badly on defense of late. They have allowed 78 points or more in four straight games. Illinois State ranks third in offensive efficiency in the MVC. The RedBirds have a lot of shooters from long range and from the free throw line. I don't think Valpo can hold them down in this one.

Illinois State is 234th in the nation in defensive efficiency and only 9th in the MVC. The Beacons of Valpo should get plenty of good looks here too.

Illinois State has scored 81 points or more in four of their last eight games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The pace of this game should be extremely slow. The two teams are capable of getting hot, and if they catch fire the game could go over. However, I think the total here is a few points too high. It's a key game for both teams. In crucial games, we often see the teams slow things down even more than normal.

Liberty is 296th in average possession length. Jacksonville State is 333rd out of 364 in the country. This game should be played completely in the halfcourt.

Liberty's defensive numbers are better than their offensive numbers. The Flames are great at defending without fouling and grabbing defensive boards. 

Both meetings between these two last year went under and were played to a pace of 61 possessions and 60 possessions (extremely slow).

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The George Mason have been the best team in the Atlantic 10 thus far. George Mason is doing it with some tremendous defense. They are third in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

George Mason struggles at times on offense. They are too reliant on offensive rebounds and getting to the free throw line. Davidson is 35th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are also in the top 100 at defending without fouling.

Davidson rarely gets to the line. They have played at a relatively slow tempo overall, but they have recently played some of the fastest paced teams in the conference. I think that has inflated this total a bit.

George Mason is 318th in the nation in tempo. They have slowed things down even more in A10 play. George Mason is taking a little more than 20 seconds per possession on offense on an average possession in league play.

Last year these two met and it was 112 total points. Earlier this year they met and it was 126 points total. 

George Mason has seen 6 of their 8 games in conference be at 122 points or fewer in regulation. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters are the best defense in the Big West, and it isn't even close. Russell Turner's group is elite on defense every single year. This is the best defense he has had in quite some time.

UC Davis is 337th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The only thing UC Davis consistently does to score is get to the free throw line. UC Irvine is third in the country in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. They don't foul much at all.

UC Davis is 87th in defensive efficiency. UC Irvine is just 190th in offensive efficiency. Both defenses have a clear advantage over the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are a clear favorite here, and they are the much better team. Merrimack's Joe Gallo has this team play a very unique zone press which backs into a matchup zone that is very tough to get open looks against. Merrimack has seen 7 of their 9 games in the MAAC stay under this total. 

Mt. St. Mary's is 335th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are quite a bit better on defense. They commit the fewest fouls of any team in the MAAC. They are also good at defending the 3 point line.

Merrimack's is bottom 10 in the country in free throws attempted. Mt. St. Mary's is well below average in FT attempts as well.

I like Merrimack to control the tempo here (they are 310th in tempo). Their defense is the best unit in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Davis Aggies have played 6 of their last 7 games under this posted total. UC Davis is excellent in halfcourt defense and they force loads of turnovers. The Aggies one weakness is fouling too much, but UC Riverside is 314th in FTA/FGA so they aren't likely to take advantage of that weakness as well as some other teams. 

UC Riverside has been very fortunate on offense of late. They are 354th in the country in shot selection. UC Riverside was only able to put up 67 and 63 points in their two games against UC Davis last year. The UC Davis defense is better this season.

UC Davis is very weak on the offensive end. They are 340th out of 364 nationally in offensive efficiency. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is well known for overs and poor defense. There are a lot of bad defenses in this league again this season. In Big Sky play, the worst defense has been Weber State.

Weber State is 351st in the nation in 3 point defense so far this season. That's a problem since Idaho is 3rd in open 3 rate in the country. Idaho takes a lot of 3 pointers, and they should get loads good looks here. 

Idaho is 342nd in the nation in defensive efficiency, so they are terrible defensively too. Idaho fouls the second most of any team in the Big Sky. Weber State is first in league play in FTA/FGA on offense, and they should get to the line quite a bit in this one.

Weber State has allowed 80 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. 

The offenses have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles are slowest in the OVC in average possession length. They are stalling on offense and winning with their defense. Morehead State is first in the league in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Offensively, Morehead State is very reliant on getting to the charity stripe. Tennessee Tech isn't great defensively, but they are 5th best in the nation at defending without fouling. Morehead State is 295th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense.

Morehead State has played 11 games in the OVC. They have only gone over this total twice. Morehead State is the better team and I trust them to get their tempo in this game.

Tennessee Tech could put up only 55 points on Morehead State earlier this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes have been as good of an over team as there has been in college basketball this year. They rank second in the country in tempo. South Dakota is 357th in defensive efficiency, so their opponents are torching the nets. On the other side, South Dakota is 36th in the country in shot selection. South Dakota has scored 89 points or more in five of home games against Division I opponents. They are no stranger to extremely high scoring games.

Nebraska Omaha has been a big surprise in the Summit League this year. No one expected this offense to be so exciting. Omaha is shooting 44.7% from 3 point range in the conference. S Dakota is the worst 3 point defense in the conference. Omaha should get a lot of easy looks. The Omaha defense has been much worse on the road than at home.

It's a high total, but I think this game gets very high scoring. Both teams foul a bunch and both teams are great at getting to the line.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Richmond Spiders have scored 59 points or fewer in regulation in four of their last five games. Richmond has slowed their pace down by 1.5 seconds per possession on average in league play. The Spiders know they don't have enough offensive firepower to consistently have a chance in higher scoring games. 

George Washington has drastically improved their defense from a year ago. The Revolutionaries are top 75 in defending without fouling and Richmond has struggled badly to score when they can't get to the line. George Washington is also top 20 in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense.

The first game between these two was 66-61. This is likely a bit higher, but I like it to stay relatively low scoring.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers are 14th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. App State is second in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. The Mountaineeers have allowed 58 points or fewer in three of their last four games. They have allowed 66 points or fewer in seven straight games. I'm impressed by the consistency of this defense.

App State does a great job controlling the pace. The Mountaineers are 345th in the country in tempo on offense. They have been the second slowest paced team in Sun Belt play.

The slowest paced team in Sun Belt play has been Old Dominion. The Monarchs have substantially slowed their pace down in the last few weeks. 

Old Dominion and App State just played on January 16 and the game was played to a pace of j57 possessions. It finished at 105 total points. 

Seven straight App State opponents have averaged less than 1 point per possession. Another slow paced contest here.

I think this one is off by several points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rice Owls defense looked much improved in the non-conference schedule, but it has fallen apart in AAC action. Rice is second worst in the AAC in defensive efficiency in league play. Rice has given up 1.14 points per play in league games. Rice has allowed at least 73 points in five straight games. Their opponents have scored 81 points or more in three of their last five games. 

The USF Bulls have struggled with defensive rebounding. They also foul far too much. Rice is 8th in FTA/FGA in the country, and they should get to the line a lot here. USF is 52nd in average possession length, so they are pushing the pace. 

A strong system is backing this one. It is a system where both teams are coming off multiple games in a row of subpar shooting. The system likes the over here, and I agree with this look.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers are a completely different team with a healthy Kawhi Leonard on the floor. Kawhi Leonard is still one of the best defenders in the NBA. The Clippers are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. They are allowing less than 1 point per possession.

The Suns are a solid 11th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that time. 

The Suns are playing at a slightly below league average tempo of 16th. The Clippers are 21st in the NBA in tempo in the last eight games. 

The two offenses are 11th and 16th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last eight games. 

These two teams are going to battle for positioning in the logjam that is the NBA Pacific Division. I think this total is a few points too high considering the changes in the two teams lately.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UC San Diego Tritons have been an offensive machine this year. UC San Diego is 66th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They have been even more efficient when they are at home, and they host this game. UC San Diego is also 74th in the nation in FTA/FGA so they make a living at the free throw line. They shoot 75.3% from the free throw line. 

Cal State Northridge is 12th in the nation in tempo. They are first in league play in tempo. Northridge has fouled the third most of any team in the country. That should put UC San Diego on the line often in this one.

Northridge has scored 83 points or more in each of their last three games.

Both of these teams are excellent at forcing turnovers and scoring in transition. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors unique zone defense really bothers opponents who don't shoot the ball well from outside. Fairfield made just 1/17 from 3 point range in the first game between these two. Merrimack slowed the pace down and it finished at just 121 points.

Merrimack has won 5 of their last 6, but they haven't scored more than 69 points in any of those wins. Their formula to success is slowing it down and winning with their matchup zone. I trust them to slow this game down too.

Fairfield and Merrimack are both in the bottom 20 in the country in FTA/FGA so we shouldn't see many trips to the line here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cal Poly Mustangs are first in the nation in average possession length. They are playing extremely quickly. Cal Poly has been having trouble making shots of late, but they are playing the second worst defense in the Big West here. Long Beach State is 335th in the country in defensive efficiency.

Cal Poly is the only defense rated worse than Long Beach State in the conference. Long Beach State struggled to score in the non-conference, but they are first in effective field goal percentage offense in the Big West. They have consistently been putting up at least mid 70's against subpar defenses.

Cal Poly games can come with an extremely quick tempo (sometimes 75 possessions or quicker) and with two terrible defenses here I like this to get high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles have been the most consistent defense in the OVC. They are also the second slowest paced team in the conference. In conference play alone, Morehead State ranks first in shot selection allowed. SIU Edwardsville ranks second in shot selection allowed in OVC play. These are two tough defenses.

Morehead State is 320th in the nation in tempo. SIU Edwardsvile is 290th in tempo. SIU Edwardsville has had three straight games against the faster paced teams in the OVC. They go back to a defensive halfcourt opponent here.

Morehead State is excellent on the defensive glass. On offense, they take far too many low quality mid range jumpers. Morehead State has been subpar from 3 point range for the year. They have made 21 three pointers in the last two games. I think they regress from long range.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have allowed 86 points or more in 6 of their last 11 games. Eastern Michigan ranks dead last in the MAC in defensive efficiency. They are allowing the most wide open 3's of anyone in the league of late. 

Buffalo isn't a good team, but they play very fast and they put up a ton of shots from 3 point range. Buffalo's defense is awful as well. They have allowed 88 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games.

With both teams pushing the pace and both teams being very weak on defense, the recipe is here for a bunch of points.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 20 in the nation in 3 point defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Miami (Ohio) has scored 80 points or more in 7 of their last 9 games. Akron has scored 85 points or more in five straight games. This is a matchup of the #1 and #2 offenses in terms of efficiency in the MAC.

It is also a nice bonus that both of these teams play quickly. Akron is top 25 in the country in tempo and Miami is top 100. The pace here should be very quick the whole way.

Both teams like to put up a lot of shots from 3 point range. The weakness of both of these defenses is their defense of the 3 point line. I think we see a lot of open looks from deep here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston University Terriers have been extremely consistent in slowing the game down this year. Boston has played four of their last five games to a 60 possession pace or slow. That is about as slow as you see. Boston is top ten in the country in defensive rebounding, and they are very good at defending without fouling as well. Those are huge keys for me when I'm looking for an under and the posted total is set at a low number.

Bucknell isn't a very good jump shooting team and they rely on getting to the line. I think that could be tougher to do in this game than most for the Bison. They are third in the conference in defensive efficiency. The Boston offense is 10th in the conference in offensive efficiency. 

Bucknell just played the best offense in the conference in Colgate. It's a big change here to arguably the worst offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LIU Sharks have completely changed the way they play and it has worked out very well. They slow the pace down in a big way. They are using an average of 20.8 seconds per offensive possession. That is the second slowest pace in the conference. LIU is easily the top ranked defense in the conference too. 

LIU has one clear weakness on defense- they foul too much. Fortunately for them, St. Francis PA is second to last in the country in FTA/FGA. St. Francis settles for a lot of long jumpers. 

These two played this past weekend and it was 64-51 and just 61 possessions in the game.  ShotQuality believes that game should have finished with just 116 points, so it was legitimately very low.

In fact, Shot Quality believes LIU's last 7 games should have all finished with 129 points or lower (most of them have in fact finished very low). 

I think this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Cal State Fullerton had a change of heart in the last few weeks. It might be that the season was just going poorly and they decided to change their style of play. I don't know the reason. I do know that Cal State Fullerton has changed their starting lineup and has decided to play much faster.

Fullerton had one game with a pace of over 70 possessions all season heading into January. Now, Fullerton has played 5 of their last 6 games at a pace of 71 possessions or quicker. Fullerton has allowed 82 points or more four times in January. 

Cal State Bakersfield fouls at the third highest rate of any team in the country. They are sending the opposition to the line constantly. Bakersfield is second to last in the Big West in defensive efficiency.

Fullerton is 35th in FTA/FGA and they have attacked the hoop hard for many years. I suspect they will get to the line a bunch here. Fullerton fouls a lot on defense and that could be a problem against Bakersfield since they are 122nd in FTA/FGA.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is well known for their offenses and lack of strong defenses in college basketball.

Northern Colorado is the best offense in the Big Sky this year. The Bears are averaging 1.172 points per possession in conference play. They are great at finishing near the rim. 

Idaho lacks rim protectors, and the Vandals are 333rd in the country in defensive efficiency. Idaho has been pretty good on offense, especially on their home floor. Idaho is 149th in offensive efficiency this year compared to just 308th last season. 

I think the pace will be quick and the offenses should have the advantage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Arkansas are 336th out of 364 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. The Austin Peay Governors are an even worse 343rd out of 364 teams in the country on offense. These are two very inefficient offenses.

These two teams are 219th and 264th in overall tempo. They prefer to slow the pace down and play in the halfcourt. Both teams are poor at getting to the free throw line. They are both below average in offensive rebounding and second chance points as well.

These two teams have played much tougher opposing offenses than defenses so far this year.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Sacred Heart Pioneers are the fastest paced team in the MAAC. Sacred Heart also plays some bad defense. Sacred Heart is 316th in defensive efficiency despite facing one of the 20 weakest slates of opposing offenses this season. 

Canisius is 361st out of 364 teams in the country in defensive efficiency. This team is atrocious on the defensive end. 

Canisius has started to shoot a bunch of three pointers and they are connecting at a good clip in conference play. Sacred Heart is 329th in 3 point FG% defense. 

Sacred Heart lets it fly from long range early and often too, and Canisius is 302nd in 3 point FG% defense. 

Sacred Heart won 99-82 earlier this month over Canisius. Canisius has scored 78 points or more in three of their last five games.

Sacred Heart has played some of the slow defensive teams in the MAAC lately and that has suppressed this total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs are dead last in the country in tempo. Drake has been amazing at forcing all teams to play at their pace. Drake's games are 10-2 in regulation under this totals number in their last 12 games. Drake just stalled out a game against ultra fast paced Indiana State in their last game. Indiana State is 4th in the country in tempo. Drake won that game 71-53. 

Drake already beat Valparaiso 66-60 on the road earlier this year. The pace of that game was just 61 possessions. 

Valparaiso is 140th in the country in tempo. They were held to 47 points by Murray State. They were held to 63 points in regulation by Bradley. This is a team that is just 309th in effective field goal percentage offense.

Drake has shown to be elite at getting leads and then taking the air out of the basketball and slowing the game down to the extremes. I think they get a chance to do that here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs are 358th in the country in effective field goal percentage. Old Dominion is a very poor jump shooting team. The Monarchs have drastically slowed down their pace of play in the last few games. Old Dominion's last four games have all been 64 possessions or slower. Old Dominion has seen all four of those games stay under this total (one even went into overtime and stayed below this number). 

James Madison is 292nd in average possession length, so they prefer to play at a slow pace. James Madison's defensive rebounding has been the best in the conference. That is important because Old Dominion is heavily reliant on offensive rebounding on the offensive end. 

James Madison has seen 3 of their last 5 games stay at 131 points or lower. 

Neither of these teams have gotten to the line very often this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rare early start at home for the Houston Rockets. It's a weekday early start because of the MLK Holiday on Monday. 

The Detroit Pistons have been playing some very good basketball in the last few weeks. The main reason for that has been their improved play on the defensive end. Detroit is 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. 

Both Detroit and Houston are playing at a slightly slower pace than the NBA average in the last ten games. This total is set at a pretty high number.

Houston is 4th season to date in defensive efficiency. The Rockets have length and they have been able to bother a lot of shots. 

Both of these teams are good on the defensive glass.

Early start times have trended under pretty heavily in the NBA in the last 15 years. That has been especially true of games outside of the eastern time zone.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Little Rock has had a couple games that were aberrations, but overall this Little Rock team has won with defense and they have kept games low scoring this year. 

Little Rock has seen 9 of their last 11 games stay under this total. Little Rock has shot blockers down low who should bother the Tennessee Tech offense quite a bit. 

Tenn Tech ranks in the bottom 40 in the country in FTA/FGA. That is important here since the large weakness of the Little Rock defense is they do put the opposition on the line too often. 

In the halfcourt sets, Tenn Tech really has no advantages over this Little Rock defense. On the other end, Little Rock has been taking way too many poor mid range jumpers and that is hurting their offensive efficiency.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State defense is locking down opponents. Morehead State ranks 68th best in the country in shot selection allowed. That's an excellent number for a team in the OVC. Morehead State is the best defensive rebounding team in the league. They are second in the league at defending without fouling. Morehead State is also dead last in the OVC in average possession length, so they are slowing the game down in a big way.

Lindenwood is 346th in offensive efficiency. The Lions are shorthanded with a couple key injuries hurting their offensive output of late. Lindenwood plays relatively quickly, but they have not been good at dictating tempo against higher quality teams.

Morehead State has played four straight games to 129 points or fewer. Their Shot Quality expected scores in all 7 games in league play have been under this posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins are first in the ASun in defensive efficiency. Jacksonville is allowing only 0.927 points per possession in the league. They are blocking a crazy high 18% of shots taken by their opponent. Jacksonville is first in forced turnover rate in the league as well.

Jacksonville is 234th in average possession length on offense. They definitely prefer a slower tempo. Central Arkansas is 218th so they are a little on the slow side as well.

Central Arkansas is 337th out of 364 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. The Bears have faced many of the worst defenses in the league thus far, and they still haven't been good on offense. Central Arkansas is 11th at defending without fouling.

Jacksonville sometimes fouls a bit too much on defense, but C Arkansas is outside the top 300 in getting to the line.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have drastically sped up their pace of play in the last few weeks. They played slower during the non-conference, but in MAC play they have wanted to get in fast paced high scoring games. They did the same thing last year when they started trending hard toward the over in the middle of the season.

Western Michigan has played 4 of their 5 fastest games in the last 2.5 weeks. The Broncos have allowed 83 points or more in three straight games. They are actually a little better on offense this year than they were last season. They are a bit worse on the defensive end. Western Michigan has been the best in the MAC at offensive rebounding and second chance points. Buffalo is terrible on the defensive boards.

Buffalo has allowed 88 points or more in four of their last six games. Buffalo had very high scoring games against Miami Ohio and Ohio in MAC play. Buffalo is playing quickly and they should be playing from behind and pushing the pace through this game.

Both teams are ranked outside the top 300 teams in defensive efficiency. I think the offenses look good here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is one where next to no one plays defense. In the last decade, over bettors have been cashing in big in this conference on the whole. 

Weber State has the worst ranked defense in a conference full of terrible defenses thus far this season. Weber State is a tall team, but they are terrible at stopping opponents near the hoop. They don't  block hardly any shots. Montana is aggressive taking the ball to the basket, and they should have success. 

Montana is first in the Big Sky so far in overall tempo. The Grizzlies are getting out and running more this season. 

Weber State has allowed 80 points or more in three of their last four games. On the other end, Weber State takes relatively good shots and they are second in the Big Sky in offensive efficiency.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Siena Saints started the season out playing quite slowly. They have a new coach and are running a new offense. Now that they have the system down more, it is clear they are getting more comfortable with playing at a faster pace.

Siena's defense isn't very good. They have allowed 72 points or more in five straight games. The Saints have played three of their four fastest paced games in the last couple weeks. 

Sacred Heart is the quickest paced team in the conference so far this year. They are good at shooting it from long range and that matches up well with a Siena defense that is 307th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. 

Sacred Heart has been a really weak defense for several years in a row now. That is the same again this year. They have played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses and still have very poor numbers.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Quinnipiac Bobcats are a taller team than a year ago. Coach Pecora talked about how he expected them to be better on defense and contest more shots at the rim this year. They have definitely done that so far this season. Quinnipiac is 39th in blocked shots percentage in the nation this season. Quinnipiac has done a good job of forcing turnovers, but not fouling very much.

Merrimack and Coach Gallo play a very unique matchup zone. The Warriors slow the game down with their pressure and force teams out of their comfort zone on offense. Merrimack has a very high forced turnover rate and the Warriors have been very good in the last few years at defending without fouling. 

Merrimack is new to the MAAC, and I think teams will struggle when they face them the first time with this unique pressing zone. This is the first time around for Quinnipiac.

Merrimack and Quinnipiac are 273rd and 307th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They struggle to get good looks on a regular basis.

Quinnipiac has played six straight games that have finished at 131 points or lower before overtime. Five of the six games have been 125 points or lower. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers aren't quite the same offensive team they were last year. Dalton Knecht was a superstar and he is really hard to replace on offense. The Volunteers rank a little bit better on defense this year though. The Vols have slowed their pace down again as well. 

Tennessee was 80th in the country in tempo last year. The Vols are 322nd in the country in tempo so far this season. They slowed down the pace against very fast paced teams in Illinois and Arkansas. 

Georgia has made some significant strides on defense this year. The Bulldogs held Ole Miss to 63 points recently. They also held Kentucky to 69 points in a fast paced game. Georgia is 16th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are just 71st in offensive efficiency.

Tennessee is 3rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Vols have been much better this year at not sending the opposition to the free throw line.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgetown Hoyas are 135th in shot selection on offense. They are 21st in the nation in shot selection allowed on defense. St. John's is 196th in shot selection on offense and 33rd in shot selection allowed on defense. St. John's is much better in the turnover battle, and they have been better on the boards as well. These are two solid defenses in general though.

Georgetown's Ed Cooley has been slowing the pace down in recent games. The Hoyas have played six straight games that have gone under this total.

St. John's is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Red Storm are 7th in the nation in shot blocking, and they are protecting the paint very well.

Madison Square Garden hosts this game. This is a very good under venue in college hoops. St. John's games at MSG have gone 41-23 to the under in the last 64 contests.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Norfolk State Spartans have played a bit slow for the season as a whole, but in the past they have played quicker against MEAC opponents, and the early trend showing them doing this once again inside the league. 

Norfolk State has several big offensive advantages. They are great at getting to the free throw line. They also shoot 75.5% from the charity stripe. Norfolk State is 153rd in the country in second chance conversion percentage. Morgan State ranks in the bottom 15 in the country at defending without fouling. Morgan State is 357th in second chance conversion percentage allowed. There should be plenty of second chance points. Norfolk State has been great in transition when they do run. They are 19th in transition offense efficiency and Morgan State is 346th in transition defense.

Morgan State pushes the pace to the extreme. They are 34th in the nation in tempo. They do get to the line a lot themselves as well, and Morgan State scored 82 on Norfolk State at home last year.

Morgan State has seen 11 straight games go over this posted total. I think this will be another.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love have some question marks around them right now. Hurts is recovering from a concussion and hasn't played in quite some time. We've seen many quarterbacks struggle in their first game back from a concussion. Jordan Love banged up his elbow last week, and Love is said to be less than 100 percent.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense was first in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year. The Green Bay Packers defense was fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year. 

The Eagles are first in the NFL in percentage of plays that are a run. The Green Bay Packers are third. The clock should keep ticking in this one. Philadelphia is 24th in tempo in the league and Green Bay is 30th, so neither team plays very fast.

I think we should see some long drives that take a bunch of time off the clock. Both quarterbacks are good when full strength, but there are large question marks here. 

Christian Watson is a key loss for the Packers offense as well. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have played 15 games so far this year. In 13 of those 15 games, the total points in the game has been 142 points or lower. That includes a streak of eight straight games of 142 points or lower.

Merrimack is playing in a new conference this year (MAAC). Merrimack's unique zone pressure can really give teams fits when they first see it. Merrimack's defensive stats inside the MAAC so far are excellent. Manhattan is unlikely to have a good game plan against this Joe Gallo zone defense.

Merrimack is 270th in offensive efficiency. They are also 321st in overall tempo, so they are playing very slowly. 

I like Merrimack to control the pace and their defense to keep this one lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes are 8th in the country in tempo. They are playing at an extremely quick pace. They are also 352nd in defensive efficiency. Opponents are getting wide open threes off against this team at a ridiculous rate. 

St. Thomas is 16th in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage offense. They are scoring more than 40% of their points from beyond the arc. St. Thomas is 8th in effective field goal percentage offense. They should put up a big number on this terrible South Dakota defense.

South Dakota is sixth in the country in FTA/FGA and they  get a lot of second chance points. St. Thomas is poor on the defensive glass.

As high as this total is, South Dakota has seen 7 of their last 10 games against Division One opponents finish with 170 points or more.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Weber State Wildcats are 322nd in shot quality allowed so far this year. They are allowing opponents to shoot 39.8% from long range. 

Idaho State has a great offensive rebounding team as well. Idaho State is 6th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and 29th in second chance conversion percentage. Weber State is 240th and 233rd in those categories on defense.

On the other side, Weber State has several good offensive weapons. The Wildcats get to the free throw line at a pretty high rate, and Idaho State fouls a lot. 

The Big Sky Conference is an offensive minded league. There are not good defenses in this league. Over bettors have done very well in this league in the long run. That has especially been true with lower posted totals. This one fits the bill as a very low total for this league.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts and Bryant Bulldogs have met four times since Bryant joined the NEC. The final totals in those four contests: 138 points, 136 points, 124 points, and 113 points. 

Vermont is 349th in the country in tempo. The Catamounts are also the worst they have been in a long time on the offensive end. Vermont is is 327th in offensive efficiency. Vermont is 94th in effective field goal percentage defense though, and they can still defend without fouling and grab defensive boards at a good rate. 

Bryant is 45th in average possession length. They will try to push the pace here. I think it will be hard to do against Vermont unless they get up big early on. 

Vermont has played 15 games against Division One opponents this year. Only two have gone over this total and those were just 145 points and 146 points. The fact that 13 of 15 were below this and the highest game was 146 points total speaks volumes.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 65th in shot selection allowed this year. Coastal Carolina has had a couple games where the defense was burned, but overall they have kept games very low scoring. Coastal Carolina is bottom six in the country in tempo. They should try hard to slow the pace down here.

Georgia State plays at an average pace, and they aren't efficient on offense. Georgia State is just 295th in offensive efficiency and 307th in effective field goal percentage offense. Georgia State is great at defending the 3 point line on defense, and Coastal Carolina takes a lot of shots from deep.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I've been very impressed with the consistency of the Appalachian State Mountaineers. They are great at slowing down the pace of the game, and their half court defense has been tremendous. App State has played six straight games that have finished under this total. The Mountaineers are 9th in the nation at defending without fouling. They are 23rd at three point field goal percentage defense.

James Madison is 306th in average possession length. App State is 341st in that same metric. This should be a very slow paced game.

James Madison has recently played a lot of faster paced teams, but now they are up against another slow paced team.

I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors are great at slowing the pace of the game down. Austin Peay is 322nd in the country in tempo. They are also a dreadful 356th in effective field goal percentage offense. On defense, Austin Peay is decent, but they can get in trouble at times by fouling too much. Fortunately, West Georgia is a team that very rarely gets to the charity stripe. In fact, West Georgia is bottom 15 in the country in FTA/FGA. 

West Georgia has slowed their pace down as the season has gone along. They have also played to the pace of their opponent more often than not. West Georgia has played a much tougher slate of opposing offenses than defenses so far. West Georgia was held to 62 points by a terrible Stetson defense. They also only scored 54 points against GA Southern this season.

I like Austin Peay to control the pace in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish haven't had any downfield passing game. Riley Leonard's average depth of target the last three games is barely above 5 yards. Notre Dame is relying on a strong offensive line and a good running game to get them enough points. With Love being less than 100%, I think Leonard will be leaned on even more in the running game. This makes long slow drives from Notre Dame even more likely. Notre Dame is bottom 25 in the country in tempo. 

Penn State is 81st in the country in tempo, so they don't play very fast either. Notre Dame is second in the country in explosiveness allowed. The Fighting Irish have what is probably the best secondary in the country. They are first in passing play success rate allowed and first in QBR allowed. Penn State is only 108th in explosiveness, so I think they'll find big plays hard to come by. 

Notre Dame was just in a hard fought low scoring game against Georgia. I think this one plays out similarly. 

Penn State is first in defensive line yards this year. Notre Dame should find it tough to run consistently on Penn State. Notre Dame hasn't shown the ability to throw it deep. 

Both teams are great defensively in the red zone. The long drives leading to field goals help an under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Florida Ospreys have one of the worst defenses in the country. North Florida has given up 99, 97, and 96 points in their last three games. North Florida also allowed 95 points against UNC Asheville and 103 points against Nebraska. The Ospreys are very bad defensively to begin with, and they are also 347th out of 364 teams in the country in second chance conversion percentage allowed. They are giving the opposition loads of second chance points.

North Florida is 18th in the country in tempo. The Ospreys don't turn the ball over and they are capable of putting up a big number.

Eastern Kentucky likes to press and use unique defenses. Eastern Kentucky is 343rd in second chance conversion percentage allowed. Both offenses have big edges when it comes to second chance points here. Eastern Kentucky started the season playing a bit slower, but they have sped things up of late. Here is a great chance for them to run! 

North Florida has allowed 93 points or more in five of their last six games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The George Mason Patriots are 277th in the nation in tempo. Richmond is 303rd in average possession length. These are two teams who prefer to play in the halfcourt, and I expect this to be a slow paced contest. The two meetings between them last year were 63 possessions and 60 possessions. 

George Mason and Richmond have both slowed down considerably in their Atlantic 10 Conference games. Both have used about two seconds more per possession than they did in the non-conference portion of their schedule. In the early going in the A10, these are second and third ranked defenses as well.

George Mason has done a great job protecting the paint this year. Opponents have had to knock down long range jumpers to beat this defense. Richmond is 28.5% from 3 point range so far this season. 

The Richmond defense is very good at not giving up second chance points, and George Mason has relied heavily on those this season.

Unless these teams shoot far better than their season averages, I think this is a low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bucknell Bison are the #1 rated defense in the Patriot League through the first couple games. Lafayette is ranked second in defense. Last year, these teams were second and third in the league in defensive efficiency. 

Bucknell and Lafayette played a game to 128 in regulation early last year and then played a game to just 110 points and 60 possessions late in the season.

John Griffin's Bucknell teams have been good at defending the 3 point line, and Lafayette takes a bunch of long range jumpers. Bucknell offensively is terrible from the free throw line and they turn the ball over at a very high rate. 

Lafayette is 318th in offensive efficiency. The Leopards have faced one of the easiest slate of defenses in the country and yet they have still struggled to score.

Bucknell has seen 8 of their last 14 games finish regulation with 129 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats have played five games against teams in KenPom's top 100 so far this year. The final totals in all five of those games have been 139 or lower. That includes games against fast paced teams like Kansas State, Arizona, and Xavier.

Cincinnati is 7th in the nation in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage defense. The Bearcats are a tall team with a lot of shot blockers. 

On the offensive end, Cincinnati is just 62nd in offensive efficiency. They are bottom 25 in the country in FTA/FGA, so they very rarely get to the line.

Baylor is 258th in the country in tempo. They prefer a slow pace of game. Cincinnati is 261st in the country in tempo.

Baylor is still good offensively, but they aren't the amazing offense they were a year ago. The Bears are a good amount better on defense than they were a year ago. 

These two teams played twice last year when both were higher scoring and the final totals were 121 points and 124 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been an over machine at home this year. Detroit has seen six of their last seven games at home finish with at least 58 points total.

The first time these two teams met it was 31-29 in Minnesota. The Lions defense was much healthier then than it is now. Detroit has given up a staggering 7.6 yards per play (worst in the NFL) in their last three games. The Lions defense gets back a bit of help on defense here, but they are still very shorthanded. The weakness of the Lions defense is the secondary and the pass rush. 

Sam Darnold is playing some excellent football, and he has amazing weapons to spread the ball around to here. The Vikings receivers should have a big day. 

Detroit's offense is amazing at home. Jared Goff is playing tremendous football, and the Lions have some very good balance.

These two teams are first and second in the NFL in plays of 20 yards or more. I expect to see a lot of explosive plays in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder have won 14 games in a row. They have the best record in the Western Conference, and the second best record in the NBA. Oklahoma City can be great on offense at times, but their defense is what is consistently leading them to win after win. 

Oklahoma City is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Thunder are only 16th in pace in the league.

Boston is 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Celtics are 28th out of 30 in pace. 

The Celtics are the defending champs and I think they get up for a game against a team on a winning streak like this. On the other hand, the Thunder have a chance to prove they are for real here against the top dog.

The early Sunday games have been good under wagers in the last decade. That has been especially true when it is a game outside of the Eastern time zone. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints defense has been really bad down the stretch, and they are really up against it here facing the Tampa Bay Bucs. Tampa Bay put up 51 point and a whopping 594 yards of offense on the Saints in the first meeting. I'm certainly not expecting that again, but I think Baker Mayfield and company will do a lot of damage again.

Tampa Bay needs to win here to be in and I expect them to win. The oddsmakers expect this one to not be very close. I think that is a real possibility, but Tampa Bay playing with a decent lead in the second half could help the over here. 

Spencer Rattler has been playing better and the Tampa Bay secondary is a clear weakness with their current injury issues. Rattler and the Saints could have chances to put up points late here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wagner Seahawks have been amazing at turning games into slogfests with very low possession totals and low scoring.

Fairleigh Dickinson is a fast paced team who plays poor defense, but there were the same last year. Wagner was better offensively last year than they are this year. Both of the meetings between these two last year stayed well under this total, and it was Wagner that set the tempo in those two games.

Wagner is 362nd in the nation in tempo. They only put up 52 points against a terrible Chicago State team in their last game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters are always excellent on defense under Coach Russell Turner. They are great on defense again this year. UC Irvine is 18th in defensive efficiency out of 364 teams in the country. UC Irvine is 7th in the nation in defensive rebounding and 2nd in the nation in defending without fouling.

UC Riverside relies heavily on second chance opportunities on offense, and I don't think they'll be able to get them against this UC Irvine defense. The Highlanders are 270th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. 

I think this one is a few points too high.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames rank sixth best in the nation in shot selection allowed. Liberty is also excellent on the defensive glass and at defending without fouling. 

Liberty is 347th in overall tempo. Ritchie McKay is a really good coach, and Liberty has consistently been a team for many years that is excellent at dictating the tempo.

MTSU has sped up a bit this year, but they have played quite a few opponents who like to run. The Blue Raiders are top 40 in 3 point field goal percentage defense. MTSU is up against a Liberty offense here who relies heavily on long range jumpers.

Both of these teams have played opponents who are better on offense than defense so far this year. 

Now, Liberty gets a game with a pretty high total, and they are coming off a heartbreaking loss. I like Liberty to slow this game down and show up with a great defensive effort.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Little Rock Trojans are a completely different team than they have been in the past few years. Little Rock's coaching staff sought to change the culture by bringing in some big men who can control the paint and block a bunch of shots. Little Rock is actually first in the nation in blocked shots percentage on defense. They are blocking 19.9% of shots put up against them. Little Rock is up against a Tennessee State team that shoots it very poorly from outside, and they try to get to the basket as much as possible.

The Little Rock offense is 322nd in the nation in offensive efficiency. Tennessee State has had trouble at times with fouling too much on defense, but Little Rock hasn't been good at getting to the charity stripe.

I think this total is set several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* For many years now, the Big Sky Conference has been a league where offenses have ruled the day. The defenses are very weak, and I think that will be the case again this year. In the last ten years, just blindly betting overs in the Big Sky has been a very good strategy, especially when the numbers are relatively low on the total. This is one of those games.

These teams don't play particularly fast, but they are both very bad on defense. Weber State is 288th in defensive efficiency and Northern Arizona is 318th in defensive efficiency. 

Northern Arizona has scored at least 76 points in five of their last six games. The Lumberjacks put up a bunch of 3 point jumpers. Weber State is 356th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. They are also bottom 30 in the country in FTA/FGA allowed so they are fouling at a high clip.

Weber State's offense should get good looks from deep too. Northern Arizona is 350th in 3 point field goal percentage defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are a sneaky good team this year. Arkansas State is 65th in tempo, and I trust them to push the pace in this game. Arkansas State's offense has been on a great run of late. They have scored 83 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. 

James Madison is a slower paced team at 257th, but they are better on offense than defense. James Madison is excellent on the offensive boards, and the biggest weakness of the Arkansas State defense is giving up second chance points and fouling too often.

Arkansas State is great at getting to the line and they have played much better defenses than offenses so far this year. The Red Wolves 3 point defense has been a weakness the last couple years and I think opponents will improve from long range against them.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors are coming off a very rare high scoring performance. They put up a big number against North Florida, who has one of the worst defenses in the country. Now, Austin Peay goes back to playing against a quality defense in Jacksonville. 

Last year, Jacksonville beat Austin Peay 63-43 in a game that was played to a ridiculously slow pace of just 54 possessions.

Jacksonville has a bunch of shot blockers and Austin Peay is one of the shortest teams in the country. Austin Peay has had major trouble with getting shots blocked this year. I think it happens again in this one. 

Jacksonville has turned it over on nearly 23% of their offensive possessions. The Dolphins waste a bunch of possessions and play at a slow pace.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers have been making a living at the free throw line so far this year. The AAC has consistently been a conference over the last few years where the refs call the game very tightly. Florida Atlantic is top 100 in FTA/FGA as well, and I think both teams could get to the charity stripe a bunch in this one. 

Florida Atlantic is 23rd in the country in overall tempo. The Owls are really playing at an ultra fast pace. They are also much better on offense than defense. Florida Atlantic is 47th in offensive efficiency,  but they are only 176th in defensive efficiency. 

Memphis is shooting better than 40% from 3 point range, and Florida Atlantic is 357th out of 364 teams in the country in 3 point defense.

Both of these teams have had some really high scoring games when facing other teams who are willing to run. They have a partner for a track meet here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans and App State Mountaineeers know each other well. They have consistently played low scoring games against each other. Scott Cross and Dustin Kerns are both very good coaches, and their defenses have had the upper hand in these matchups time after time.

Five straight games in this series have finished with 128 points or fewer. Interestingly, these two teams are both playing far slower than they did a year ago as well. Troy was 67th in the country in tempo last year, but they are 235th this season. App State was 213th last year and they are 325th so far this year. 

These two teams have been great at defending without fouling. They are 19th and 21st in FTA/FGA on defense. 

The two offenses are both outside the top 300 in the country in taking care of the basketball. There should be plenty of dead ball turnovers that stall this game out.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense has been excellent all year. It certainly is a negative to be without Mills on the defensive line, but Notre Dame as a unit is still very strong on defense. The secondary is the best in the country. They are 2nd best in the country in explosiveness allowed. I think it will be tough for Georgia to break big plays here.

Georgia will start backup quarterback Gunner Stockton. He is a highly recruited guy, but he is untested in the passing game. The Notre Dame secondary is an extremely difficult matchup for them. The Georgia wide receivers aren't as good as normal, and drops have been a major problem. 

The Bulldogs ground attack has been subpar all season. Georgia is 84th in offensive line yards this year. They are just 79th in ypc. They will likely run it more in this game. Georgia is just 72nd in offensive explosiveness. 

Notre Dame will likely run the ball a bunch with Riley Leonard and Love in this game. I expect them to have some success, but I think they will have long slow drives. Notre Dame is 107th in the country in tempo. I think Kirby Smart and company will have a good defensive game plan ready for this one.

I expect a tight and low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wofford Terriers host the UNC Greensboro Spartans on Wednesday at noon eastern. This is an interesting early tipoff on New Year's Day. Both of these teams play at an extremely slow tempo to start with. I do wonder if things might be a little bit sloppy in this game too. 

These two teams are 333rd and 336th in overall tempo. The game should be played almost entirely in the halfcourt. These two teams are 293rd and 357th in FTA/FGA so I wouldn't expect very many trips to the charity stripe in this one either. 

Wofford takes a lot of shots from long range, but UNC Greensboro is allowing just 28% from 3 point range so far this year. UNC Greensboro relies on second chance points, but Wofford is above average on the defensive glass.

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves are two of the very best defenses in the NBA. In fact, in the last 15 games these are the first and second ranked defenses in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency. These are both teams who have the potential to go deep into the playoffs. 

I expect both teams to be highly motivated here. Oklahoma City is 15th in tempo in the NBA in the last 15 games. Minnesota is 26th in pace in the league in that time. The pace here should be relatively slow.

New Year's Eve games have trended quite a bit toward the under in the NBA in general in the last couple decades. Both teams will be off on January 1st. 

I like the spot for the defenses to show up in a tight hard fought game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs fell 65-62 to UCLA this past weekend. UCLA is a really good defensive team under Mick Cronin. Gonzaga goes from taking on that rough defense to facing a Pepperdine defense that just gave up 91 points to Santa Clara and allowed 94 points against UC San Diego earlier this year.

Pepperdine has played a very weak slate of opposing offenses. The Waves have still struggled when they have played up against the better offenses. Pepperdine has sped up their tempo more recently. 

Gonzaga is 4th in the country in offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs are 26th fastest in average possession length. Gonzaga put up 113 against UMass Lowell. They scored 102 against Nicholls. They are capable of putting up a big number here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons offense is a bit of an unknown now with Penix taking over under center. Atlanta has a pretty good rushing attack, but I expect Washington to be able to take away the explosive rushing plays especially with the weather conditions in this one.

The Washington offense can be explosive, but they are just 14th in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Commanders defense is 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. 

The Falcons defense is middle of the road on the season, and the offense has had trouble in the red zone.

The weather here should matter quite a bit. The forecast calls for 18 mph sustained winds with gusts as high as 30 mph. There is expected to be steady rain as well. That should make both offenses less aggressive.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Cleveland doesn't look good for this game. We know this is a stadium where weather matters much more than the average NFL stadium. Cleveland games have been very low scoring with wind and precipitation. 

The current forecast calls for 15 mph winds and 90% rain during this game. The winds will actually be increasing as we go later into the game.

The Browns have chosen to go with DTR as their starting quarterback, and that makes them a lot better under team than when they had Winston. DTR is very limited in his passing ability and the Miami defense should be able to limit explosives much better.

The Browns defense played very well against the Bengals last week, and overall the Browns have allowed just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games.

I think this Browns offense is a bottom 3 offense in the NFL in its current state. The Miami offense is shorthanded as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces have been without Gabriel Pozzato in their last two games. He has a lower back injury and is questionable for this game. Without Pozzato, they have scored 54 points against UT Arlington and 43 points against Ball State. Neither of those teams are very good defensively.

Missouri State is a defensive-minded team under Cuonzo Martin. Missouri State's defensive numbers are skewed this year because they have played the 74th toughest slate of offenses so far this season according to KenPom. They have played the 289th toughest slate of defenses, so their offensive numbers are likely to drop.

Missouri State is 288th in overall tempo. Evansville is 201st in overall tempo. The best way to beat Missouri State's defense is to shoot it from long range. Evansville is 26% from 3 point range on the season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers have played 12 games this year. They have only played two games that have finished higher than 141 points. Minnesota has been content to slow the game down and win lower scoring games even against weak teams like Fairleigh Dickinson and Oral Roberts. 

Morgan State is very weak. They like to push the pace. Morgan State has really only played one good defense (Iowa State- but they play at a very quick tempo) so far this year. Morgan State shoots a ton of mid range jumpers, and Minnesota is very good at defending that shot.

Minnesota should have control of this game and I think they will take the air out of the ball here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Jets defense is top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Jets defense played well last week against the Rams. 

Buffalo has had some very high scoring games of late against the likes of the Lions and the Rams, but I expect this game to look different. Buffalo's defense gets a big boost from Matt Milano being back for this one. Rasul Douglas is also back at cornerback.

The first game between these two was 23-20. This game is being played at Buffalo during some pretty major winds. The average sustained wind during this game is forecast to be about 19 mph. Off and on rain showers could change the game as well.

Divisional unders are a little north of 57% in the last 15 years when there is an average wind of 10 mph or higher.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both Pepperdine and Santa Clara play at an above average tempo. These teams are happy to be in transition and looking to get up shots early in the shot clock. 

Santa Clara ranks 17th in the country in shot selection on offense. Sendek's teams have really gotten a name for running innovative offensive sets in the last few years. Santa Clara is only 245th in shot selection allowed though. There are often chances to score on them.

Pepperdine has scored 76 points or more in four straight games. The Waves have improved a lot on the offensive end in recent weeks. Pepperdine's defensive numbers are held up by the extremely soft schedule they have played. I think this is a below average defensive team. They allowed 94 points to UC San Diego. They gave up 80 points to both UNLV and UC Irvine.

I think this one is a fast paced game where the offenses get plenty of good looks.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Minnesota is 23rd in the NBA in tempo in the last ten contests. 

Dallas is 10th and they have gradually slowed down a bit over the course of the season. The Mavericks are excellent on offense, but they have locked teams down on defense at home. Dallas is 9-5 to the under at home with an average margin of 6.3 points under the total. That's the biggest under margin at home of any team in the NBA.

Dallas is sixth best in the NBA in home points allowed per game. Minnesota is fourth best in the NBA in points per game allowed on the road.

This is an early Christmas Day contest. The NBA Christmas Day games have been good to under bettors in general, but the earlier games on Christmas have been far better to the under than games occurring later in the day. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In the last 8 games, Minnesota is the top NBA defense and it isn't very close. The Timberwolves are allowing 0.999 points points per possession in that time. The second best team is allowing 1.036 points per possession. 

Minnesota is 26th in offensive efficiency during that time. The Atlanta Hawks are only 23rd in offensive efficiency during that time too. Atlanta is 15th in defensive efficiency.

Minnesota is one of the slower paced teams in the NBA. The Hawks do play at a fast pace, but that is definitely accounted for in this high totals number.

Brian Forte is one of the best under referees in the NBA. The under is a whopping 569-470 in his games in his career. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Jets defense hasn't lived up to expectations this year, but the offense has found its footing in recent weeks. The Jets offense ranks 7th in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Jets have played in four straight games that have gone over this posted total. 

The Rams are coming off a low scoring win over San Francisco in that rainy and windy game. The fact that a weather game like that made it lower scoring has given us some value here. The Rams offense was humming along before last week. Three of the Rams last five games have hit 50 points or more.

The Rams offense when healthy is dangerous, and they are much healthier now than they were earlier in the year. Rodgers has more weapons around him now, and he should be able to take advantage of a questionable Rams defense.

It will be cold here, but very cold weather has helped overs in the past in the NFL by a pretty big margin, especially in non-divisional games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles are the #1 defense in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Philadelphia locked down the Commanders the first time these two met until Washington put up 8 points in garbage time. That game finished with 44 points despite the 28 point fourth quarter.

Washington's defense has really improved throughout the season. The Commanders are top ten in all major defensive stats in the last three games. They are second in yards per carry allowed in the last three games.

Philadelphia is playing at a slow pace, especially when they have the lead. The Eagles are favored by 3.5 points here so the game script could help us out.

Divisional unders from game number 10 until the end of the season are 56% in the last 625 games. If you exclude the last week of the season, those unders sit at 59%. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans and Elon Phoenix both prefer to play at a very slow pace. There's no reason to expect anything other than a half court slow paced contest.

Elon is 285th in overall pace. UNC Greensboro is 331st in overall pace. Both of these teams have seen 5 of their 9 games against Division I opponents stay under this total. Now, they are up against another extremely slow paced opponent.

Elon's 7'4 Matthew Van Komen is a shot blocking machine and he has completely changed the way the Elon defense looks. This is no longer a weak defense that lets everyone get to the hoop like they did last season.

UNC Greensboro and Elon are both great at defending without fouling. Both teams have faced far better opposing offenses than defenses so far this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes are one of the best over teams in the country. They are 354th in defensive efficiency. They have played a very easy slate of opposing offenses, and yet they have allowed opponents to score 92 points or more in 5 of their 12 games against Division I opponents. 

South Dakota plays at the 6th fastest tempo of anyone in the country. South Dakota is also great at taking care of the basketball. They are 89th in offensive efficiency. They get to the line at a very high rate, and South Dakota is up against a Santa Clara team that does foul a lot.

Santa Clara has wanted to play quick most of the years under Herb Sendek. They have played a track meet pace against Fresno State and Kennesaw State (both much worse at offense than South Dakota). I think Santa Clara will play quickly here too. Santa Clara gets very high quality shots (17th best in the country according to Shot Quality). They should get loads of second chance opportunities here too against a South Dakota team that is awful on the defensive boards.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins know what they need to do here. They don't want to play North Carolina's fast pace style and get into a shootout. UCLA just won a 57-54 contest against Arizona last week. The Wildcats play very quick, but UCLA frustrated them with excellent defense and a slow tempo. They should have a plan to try to do the same thing here. 

North Carolina has played a bunch of high powered offenses this year. I think the Tar Heels defense is better than their overall numbers appear right now. North Carolina has played Auburn, Kansas, Alabama, and Florida. While UCLA is a good team, the Bruins are only decent on offense. They are 73rd in efficiency on offense and are outside the top 200 in shot selection.

Madison Square Garden has been consistently the best under venue in college hoops. The long term ATS record for the under in NCAA BB games played here has been top notch.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts offense is way down this year, but they are still excellent on defense. Vermont is well coached and they are very good at getting their style of play regardless of the opponent. Vermont is going to slow the game down. They are 344th in tempo out of 364 teams in the country. 

Vermont has seen six of their last seven games finish with 133 total points or fewer. Three of their last four games have finished with 125 points or fewer. 

Dartmouth is playing somewhat faster this year, but they have played a very weak group of defenses so far this season. 

Both of these teams are excellent on the defensive boards, and they are both good at defending without fouling.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Grambling State Tigers and Norfolk State Spartans meet in a neutral site battle at Mohegan Sun Arena. 

This is a much bigger arena than either of these two teams generally play at during the season. In their matchups last night both teams saw their games go under the total by a wide margin.

Grambling will work to slow the tempo down the best they can in general. Grambling has played a bunch of very fast paced opponents (New Mexico, Florida, Cal Poly) this season. Norfolk State is 300th in average possession length, so they should be happy to play at a slow pace.

Norfolk State has struggled on the defensive glass this year, but Grambling is one of the 20 worst teams in the country in offensive rebounding. 

Both of these teams are pretty careless with the basketball and that should lead to some dead ball turnovers in this one.

Barring the teams shooting it much better than normal or a major foul fest, I think this total is several points too high for a neutral site game between two slow paced teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SIU Edwardsville Cougars have played the 89th toughest slate of opposing offenses according to KenPom. They have played the 343rd toughest slate of opposing defenses. A schedule with teams like North Florida and Green Bay shows how easy the opposing defenses have been.

Little Rock is a completely different team this year. I'm very impressed with their interior defense. Little Rock has three very good shot blockers, and they are one of the tallest mid major teams in the country. The Trojans are 30th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. One knock on them is they do foul too much, but SIU Edwardsville is in the bottom 15 in the country in FTA/FGA. 

These teams are both playing at a below average pace. Both teams rank worse than 300th in the nation in free throw shooting percentage. 

Six of Little Rock's nine opponents have been in the top 100 in tempo. They now face a slower opponent.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors are 353rd out of 364 teams in tempo. Austin Peay is going to do their very best to slow this game down. Corey Gipson's teams have been excellent at controlling the pace in the last few seasons. Austin Peay is 337th in effective field goal percentage offense. They take far too many contested jumpers. They rank 275th in the country in shot selection. 

Ohio's defense has been bad so far this year, but they are due for some positive regression toward the mean. This has been a mediocre defense the last few years. Right now, they are dead last in the country in 3 point FG percentage defense. Opponents are hitting a ridiculous 45.1% on 3 point jumpers against Ohio this year. In the last five years, they have held opponents to 34% or lower every year. Austin Peay is shooting just 29.7% from long range.

I think Ohio's defense looks better here, and Austin Peay slows the game down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Sacred Heart Pioneers have a way of making games high scoring. Sacred Heart has been top 85 in the country in tempo for three straight seasons. They have also been bottom 75 in defensive efficiency in each of those seasons. Sacred Heart has allowed 81 points or more in six games already this year.

Sacred Heart is very good from three point range though, and they take a lot of shots from long distance. Albany has given up open threes all year, and they are allowing 38.9% from long distance. 

Albany is 88th in tempo overall. The Great Danes commit a lot of fouls, and they have no shot blockers to protect the paint. Albany takes good care of the basketball on offense and they shoot free throws very well.

These two teams played last year and Albany won 93-79. I think we see another high scoring contest.

Take the over.