*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters are always excellent on defense under Coach Russell Turner. They are great on defense again this year. UC Irvine is 18th in defensive efficiency out of 364 teams in the country. UC Irvine is 7th in the nation in defensive rebounding and 2nd in the nation in defending without fouling.

UC Riverside relies heavily on second chance opportunities on offense, and I don't think they'll be able to get them against this UC Irvine defense. The Highlanders are 270th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. 

I think this one is a few points too high.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames rank sixth best in the nation in shot selection allowed. Liberty is also excellent on the defensive glass and at defending without fouling. 

Liberty is 347th in overall tempo. Ritchie McKay is a really good coach, and Liberty has consistently been a team for many years that is excellent at dictating the tempo.

MTSU has sped up a bit this year, but they have played quite a few opponents who like to run. The Blue Raiders are top 40 in 3 point field goal percentage defense. MTSU is up against a Liberty offense here who relies heavily on long range jumpers.

Both of these teams have played opponents who are better on offense than defense so far this year. 

Now, Liberty gets a game with a pretty high total, and they are coming off a heartbreaking loss. I like Liberty to slow this game down and show up with a great defensive effort.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Little Rock Trojans are a completely different team than they have been in the past few years. Little Rock's coaching staff sought to change the culture by bringing in some big men who can control the paint and block a bunch of shots. Little Rock is actually first in the nation in blocked shots percentage on defense. They are blocking 19.9% of shots put up against them. Little Rock is up against a Tennessee State team that shoots it very poorly from outside, and they try to get to the basket as much as possible.

The Little Rock offense is 322nd in the nation in offensive efficiency. Tennessee State has had trouble at times with fouling too much on defense, but Little Rock hasn't been good at getting to the charity stripe.

I think this total is set several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* For many years now, the Big Sky Conference has been a league where offenses have ruled the day. The defenses are very weak, and I think that will be the case again this year. In the last ten years, just blindly betting overs in the Big Sky has been a very good strategy, especially when the numbers are relatively low on the total. This is one of those games.

These teams don't play particularly fast, but they are both very bad on defense. Weber State is 288th in defensive efficiency and Northern Arizona is 318th in defensive efficiency. 

Northern Arizona has scored at least 76 points in five of their last six games. The Lumberjacks put up a bunch of 3 point jumpers. Weber State is 356th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. They are also bottom 30 in the country in FTA/FGA allowed so they are fouling at a high clip.

Weber State's offense should get good looks from deep too. Northern Arizona is 350th in 3 point field goal percentage defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are a sneaky good team this year. Arkansas State is 65th in tempo, and I trust them to push the pace in this game. Arkansas State's offense has been on a great run of late. They have scored 83 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. 

James Madison is a slower paced team at 257th, but they are better on offense than defense. James Madison is excellent on the offensive boards, and the biggest weakness of the Arkansas State defense is giving up second chance points and fouling too often.

Arkansas State is great at getting to the line and they have played much better defenses than offenses so far this year. The Red Wolves 3 point defense has been a weakness the last couple years and I think opponents will improve from long range against them.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors are coming off a very rare high scoring performance. They put up a big number against North Florida, who has one of the worst defenses in the country. Now, Austin Peay goes back to playing against a quality defense in Jacksonville. 

Last year, Jacksonville beat Austin Peay 63-43 in a game that was played to a ridiculously slow pace of just 54 possessions.

Jacksonville has a bunch of shot blockers and Austin Peay is one of the shortest teams in the country. Austin Peay has had major trouble with getting shots blocked this year. I think it happens again in this one. 

Jacksonville has turned it over on nearly 23% of their offensive possessions. The Dolphins waste a bunch of possessions and play at a slow pace.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers have been making a living at the free throw line so far this year. The AAC has consistently been a conference over the last few years where the refs call the game very tightly. Florida Atlantic is top 100 in FTA/FGA as well, and I think both teams could get to the charity stripe a bunch in this one. 

Florida Atlantic is 23rd in the country in overall tempo. The Owls are really playing at an ultra fast pace. They are also much better on offense than defense. Florida Atlantic is 47th in offensive efficiency,  but they are only 176th in defensive efficiency. 

Memphis is shooting better than 40% from 3 point range, and Florida Atlantic is 357th out of 364 teams in the country in 3 point defense.

Both of these teams have had some really high scoring games when facing other teams who are willing to run. They have a partner for a track meet here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans and App State Mountaineeers know each other well. They have consistently played low scoring games against each other. Scott Cross and Dustin Kerns are both very good coaches, and their defenses have had the upper hand in these matchups time after time.

Five straight games in this series have finished with 128 points or fewer. Interestingly, these two teams are both playing far slower than they did a year ago as well. Troy was 67th in the country in tempo last year, but they are 235th this season. App State was 213th last year and they are 325th so far this year. 

These two teams have been great at defending without fouling. They are 19th and 21st in FTA/FGA on defense. 

The two offenses are both outside the top 300 in the country in taking care of the basketball. There should be plenty of dead ball turnovers that stall this game out.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense has been excellent all year. It certainly is a negative to be without Mills on the defensive line, but Notre Dame as a unit is still very strong on defense. The secondary is the best in the country. They are 2nd best in the country in explosiveness allowed. I think it will be tough for Georgia to break big plays here.

Georgia will start backup quarterback Gunner Stockton. He is a highly recruited guy, but he is untested in the passing game. The Notre Dame secondary is an extremely difficult matchup for them. The Georgia wide receivers aren't as good as normal, and drops have been a major problem. 

The Bulldogs ground attack has been subpar all season. Georgia is 84th in offensive line yards this year. They are just 79th in ypc. They will likely run it more in this game. Georgia is just 72nd in offensive explosiveness. 

Notre Dame will likely run the ball a bunch with Riley Leonard and Love in this game. I expect them to have some success, but I think they will have long slow drives. Notre Dame is 107th in the country in tempo. I think Kirby Smart and company will have a good defensive game plan ready for this one.

I expect a tight and low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wofford Terriers host the UNC Greensboro Spartans on Wednesday at noon eastern. This is an interesting early tipoff on New Year's Day. Both of these teams play at an extremely slow tempo to start with. I do wonder if things might be a little bit sloppy in this game too. 

These two teams are 333rd and 336th in overall tempo. The game should be played almost entirely in the halfcourt. These two teams are 293rd and 357th in FTA/FGA so I wouldn't expect very many trips to the charity stripe in this one either. 

Wofford takes a lot of shots from long range, but UNC Greensboro is allowing just 28% from 3 point range so far this year. UNC Greensboro relies on second chance points, but Wofford is above average on the defensive glass.

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves are two of the very best defenses in the NBA. In fact, in the last 15 games these are the first and second ranked defenses in the NBA in terms of defensive efficiency. These are both teams who have the potential to go deep into the playoffs. 

I expect both teams to be highly motivated here. Oklahoma City is 15th in tempo in the NBA in the last 15 games. Minnesota is 26th in pace in the league in that time. The pace here should be relatively slow.

New Year's Eve games have trended quite a bit toward the under in the NBA in general in the last couple decades. Both teams will be off on January 1st. 

I like the spot for the defenses to show up in a tight hard fought game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs fell 65-62 to UCLA this past weekend. UCLA is a really good defensive team under Mick Cronin. Gonzaga goes from taking on that rough defense to facing a Pepperdine defense that just gave up 91 points to Santa Clara and allowed 94 points against UC San Diego earlier this year.

Pepperdine has played a very weak slate of opposing offenses. The Waves have still struggled when they have played up against the better offenses. Pepperdine has sped up their tempo more recently. 

Gonzaga is 4th in the country in offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs are 26th fastest in average possession length. Gonzaga put up 113 against UMass Lowell. They scored 102 against Nicholls. They are capable of putting up a big number here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons offense is a bit of an unknown now with Penix taking over under center. Atlanta has a pretty good rushing attack, but I expect Washington to be able to take away the explosive rushing plays especially with the weather conditions in this one.

The Washington offense can be explosive, but they are just 14th in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Commanders defense is 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. 

The Falcons defense is middle of the road on the season, and the offense has had trouble in the red zone.

The weather here should matter quite a bit. The forecast calls for 18 mph sustained winds with gusts as high as 30 mph. There is expected to be steady rain as well. That should make both offenses less aggressive.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Cleveland doesn't look good for this game. We know this is a stadium where weather matters much more than the average NFL stadium. Cleveland games have been very low scoring with wind and precipitation. 

The current forecast calls for 15 mph winds and 90% rain during this game. The winds will actually be increasing as we go later into the game.

The Browns have chosen to go with DTR as their starting quarterback, and that makes them a lot better under team than when they had Winston. DTR is very limited in his passing ability and the Miami defense should be able to limit explosives much better.

The Browns defense played very well against the Bengals last week, and overall the Browns have allowed just 4.7 yards per play in their last three games.

I think this Browns offense is a bottom 3 offense in the NFL in its current state. The Miami offense is shorthanded as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces have been without Gabriel Pozzato in their last two games. He has a lower back injury and is questionable for this game. Without Pozzato, they have scored 54 points against UT Arlington and 43 points against Ball State. Neither of those teams are very good defensively.

Missouri State is a defensive-minded team under Cuonzo Martin. Missouri State's defensive numbers are skewed this year because they have played the 74th toughest slate of offenses so far this season according to KenPom. They have played the 289th toughest slate of defenses, so their offensive numbers are likely to drop.

Missouri State is 288th in overall tempo. Evansville is 201st in overall tempo. The best way to beat Missouri State's defense is to shoot it from long range. Evansville is 26% from 3 point range on the season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers have played 12 games this year. They have only played two games that have finished higher than 141 points. Minnesota has been content to slow the game down and win lower scoring games even against weak teams like Fairleigh Dickinson and Oral Roberts. 

Morgan State is very weak. They like to push the pace. Morgan State has really only played one good defense (Iowa State- but they play at a very quick tempo) so far this year. Morgan State shoots a ton of mid range jumpers, and Minnesota is very good at defending that shot.

Minnesota should have control of this game and I think they will take the air out of the ball here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Jets defense is top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Jets defense played well last week against the Rams. 

Buffalo has had some very high scoring games of late against the likes of the Lions and the Rams, but I expect this game to look different. Buffalo's defense gets a big boost from Matt Milano being back for this one. Rasul Douglas is also back at cornerback.

The first game between these two was 23-20. This game is being played at Buffalo during some pretty major winds. The average sustained wind during this game is forecast to be about 19 mph. Off and on rain showers could change the game as well.

Divisional unders are a little north of 57% in the last 15 years when there is an average wind of 10 mph or higher.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both Pepperdine and Santa Clara play at an above average tempo. These teams are happy to be in transition and looking to get up shots early in the shot clock. 

Santa Clara ranks 17th in the country in shot selection on offense. Sendek's teams have really gotten a name for running innovative offensive sets in the last few years. Santa Clara is only 245th in shot selection allowed though. There are often chances to score on them.

Pepperdine has scored 76 points or more in four straight games. The Waves have improved a lot on the offensive end in recent weeks. Pepperdine's defensive numbers are held up by the extremely soft schedule they have played. I think this is a below average defensive team. They allowed 94 points to UC San Diego. They gave up 80 points to both UNLV and UC Irvine.

I think this one is a fast paced game where the offenses get plenty of good looks.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Minnesota is 23rd in the NBA in tempo in the last ten contests. 

Dallas is 10th and they have gradually slowed down a bit over the course of the season. The Mavericks are excellent on offense, but they have locked teams down on defense at home. Dallas is 9-5 to the under at home with an average margin of 6.3 points under the total. That's the biggest under margin at home of any team in the NBA.

Dallas is sixth best in the NBA in home points allowed per game. Minnesota is fourth best in the NBA in points per game allowed on the road.

This is an early Christmas Day contest. The NBA Christmas Day games have been good to under bettors in general, but the earlier games on Christmas have been far better to the under than games occurring later in the day. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In the last 8 games, Minnesota is the top NBA defense and it isn't very close. The Timberwolves are allowing 0.999 points points per possession in that time. The second best team is allowing 1.036 points per possession. 

Minnesota is 26th in offensive efficiency during that time. The Atlanta Hawks are only 23rd in offensive efficiency during that time too. Atlanta is 15th in defensive efficiency.

Minnesota is one of the slower paced teams in the NBA. The Hawks do play at a fast pace, but that is definitely accounted for in this high totals number.

Brian Forte is one of the best under referees in the NBA. The under is a whopping 569-470 in his games in his career. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Jets defense hasn't lived up to expectations this year, but the offense has found its footing in recent weeks. The Jets offense ranks 7th in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Jets have played in four straight games that have gone over this posted total. 

The Rams are coming off a low scoring win over San Francisco in that rainy and windy game. The fact that a weather game like that made it lower scoring has given us some value here. The Rams offense was humming along before last week. Three of the Rams last five games have hit 50 points or more.

The Rams offense when healthy is dangerous, and they are much healthier now than they were earlier in the year. Rodgers has more weapons around him now, and he should be able to take advantage of a questionable Rams defense.

It will be cold here, but very cold weather has helped overs in the past in the NFL by a pretty big margin, especially in non-divisional games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles are the #1 defense in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Philadelphia locked down the Commanders the first time these two met until Washington put up 8 points in garbage time. That game finished with 44 points despite the 28 point fourth quarter.

Washington's defense has really improved throughout the season. The Commanders are top ten in all major defensive stats in the last three games. They are second in yards per carry allowed in the last three games.

Philadelphia is playing at a slow pace, especially when they have the lead. The Eagles are favored by 3.5 points here so the game script could help us out.

Divisional unders from game number 10 until the end of the season are 56% in the last 625 games. If you exclude the last week of the season, those unders sit at 59%. This one fits.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans and Elon Phoenix both prefer to play at a very slow pace. There's no reason to expect anything other than a half court slow paced contest.

Elon is 285th in overall pace. UNC Greensboro is 331st in overall pace. Both of these teams have seen 5 of their 9 games against Division I opponents stay under this total. Now, they are up against another extremely slow paced opponent.

Elon's 7'4 Matthew Van Komen is a shot blocking machine and he has completely changed the way the Elon defense looks. This is no longer a weak defense that lets everyone get to the hoop like they did last season.

UNC Greensboro and Elon are both great at defending without fouling. Both teams have faced far better opposing offenses than defenses so far this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes are one of the best over teams in the country. They are 354th in defensive efficiency. They have played a very easy slate of opposing offenses, and yet they have allowed opponents to score 92 points or more in 5 of their 12 games against Division I opponents. 

South Dakota plays at the 6th fastest tempo of anyone in the country. South Dakota is also great at taking care of the basketball. They are 89th in offensive efficiency. They get to the line at a very high rate, and South Dakota is up against a Santa Clara team that does foul a lot.

Santa Clara has wanted to play quick most of the years under Herb Sendek. They have played a track meet pace against Fresno State and Kennesaw State (both much worse at offense than South Dakota). I think Santa Clara will play quickly here too. Santa Clara gets very high quality shots (17th best in the country according to Shot Quality). They should get loads of second chance opportunities here too against a South Dakota team that is awful on the defensive boards.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins know what they need to do here. They don't want to play North Carolina's fast pace style and get into a shootout. UCLA just won a 57-54 contest against Arizona last week. The Wildcats play very quick, but UCLA frustrated them with excellent defense and a slow tempo. They should have a plan to try to do the same thing here. 

North Carolina has played a bunch of high powered offenses this year. I think the Tar Heels defense is better than their overall numbers appear right now. North Carolina has played Auburn, Kansas, Alabama, and Florida. While UCLA is a good team, the Bruins are only decent on offense. They are 73rd in efficiency on offense and are outside the top 200 in shot selection.

Madison Square Garden has been consistently the best under venue in college hoops. The long term ATS record for the under in NCAA BB games played here has been top notch.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts offense is way down this year, but they are still excellent on defense. Vermont is well coached and they are very good at getting their style of play regardless of the opponent. Vermont is going to slow the game down. They are 344th in tempo out of 364 teams in the country. 

Vermont has seen six of their last seven games finish with 133 total points or fewer. Three of their last four games have finished with 125 points or fewer. 

Dartmouth is playing somewhat faster this year, but they have played a very weak group of defenses so far this season. 

Both of these teams are excellent on the defensive boards, and they are both good at defending without fouling.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Grambling State Tigers and Norfolk State Spartans meet in a neutral site battle at Mohegan Sun Arena. 

This is a much bigger arena than either of these two teams generally play at during the season. In their matchups last night both teams saw their games go under the total by a wide margin.

Grambling will work to slow the tempo down the best they can in general. Grambling has played a bunch of very fast paced opponents (New Mexico, Florida, Cal Poly) this season. Norfolk State is 300th in average possession length, so they should be happy to play at a slow pace.

Norfolk State has struggled on the defensive glass this year, but Grambling is one of the 20 worst teams in the country in offensive rebounding. 

Both of these teams are pretty careless with the basketball and that should lead to some dead ball turnovers in this one.

Barring the teams shooting it much better than normal or a major foul fest, I think this total is several points too high for a neutral site game between two slow paced teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SIU Edwardsville Cougars have played the 89th toughest slate of opposing offenses according to KenPom. They have played the 343rd toughest slate of opposing defenses. A schedule with teams like North Florida and Green Bay shows how easy the opposing defenses have been.

Little Rock is a completely different team this year. I'm very impressed with their interior defense. Little Rock has three very good shot blockers, and they are one of the tallest mid major teams in the country. The Trojans are 30th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. One knock on them is they do foul too much, but SIU Edwardsville is in the bottom 15 in the country in FTA/FGA. 

These teams are both playing at a below average pace. Both teams rank worse than 300th in the nation in free throw shooting percentage. 

Six of Little Rock's nine opponents have been in the top 100 in tempo. They now face a slower opponent.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Austin Peay Governors are 353rd out of 364 teams in tempo. Austin Peay is going to do their very best to slow this game down. Corey Gipson's teams have been excellent at controlling the pace in the last few seasons. Austin Peay is 337th in effective field goal percentage offense. They take far too many contested jumpers. They rank 275th in the country in shot selection. 

Ohio's defense has been bad so far this year, but they are due for some positive regression toward the mean. This has been a mediocre defense the last few years. Right now, they are dead last in the country in 3 point FG percentage defense. Opponents are hitting a ridiculous 45.1% on 3 point jumpers against Ohio this year. In the last five years, they have held opponents to 34% or lower every year. Austin Peay is shooting just 29.7% from long range.

I think Ohio's defense looks better here, and Austin Peay slows the game down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Sacred Heart Pioneers have a way of making games high scoring. Sacred Heart has been top 85 in the country in tempo for three straight seasons. They have also been bottom 75 in defensive efficiency in each of those seasons. Sacred Heart has allowed 81 points or more in six games already this year.

Sacred Heart is very good from three point range though, and they take a lot of shots from long distance. Albany has given up open threes all year, and they are allowing 38.9% from long distance. 

Albany is 88th in tempo overall. The Great Danes commit a lot of fouls, and they have no shot blockers to protect the paint. Albany takes good care of the basketball on offense and they shoot free throws very well.

These two teams played last year and Albany won 93-79. I think we see another high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors play this very unique zone full court press that actually slows the game down significantly. Merrimack is a tricky matchup for opposing offenses. On the other side, Merrimack is atrocious on offense. Merrimack has been overmatched against top 75 opponents the last few years. 

Merrimack has faced two top 75 teams this year: VCU (they scored 42 points) and Butler (they scored 39 points). Last year they were held to 52 points by Ohio State and 49 by Cincinnati. I don't think they can do much offensively against Kyle Smith's Stanford defense that has a big height advantage.

Stanford's last four opponents were all in the top 120 in pace. Merrimack is completely different. They enter 325th in tempo this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers offense has been playing their very best at the end of the season. In the last six games, Memphis has averaged a little more than 39 points per game. 

Memphis has a history of showing up with some great offense in bowl games under Ryan Silverfield as well. Memphis put up 36 points against a good Iowa State defense last year. They scored 38 on Utah State a couple years ago. Memphis also had that 53-39 loss to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl under Silverfield. 

Seth Hennigan is a good veteran quarterback and he's up against a West Virginia defense that is 124th in QBR allowed. Now, West Virginia is without two corners who are in the transfer portal. West Virginia is also without star linebacker Josiah Trotter. The Mountaineers defense has allowed 36.17 points per game in their last six games. Now, they are missing some of their very best defenders.

West Virginia has most of their key guys on offense playing here. The Mountaineers are 10th in the nation in offensive explosiveness, and Memphis gives up a bunch of big plays. The Tigers are 123rd in explosiveness allowed. Memphis played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses,  but they allowed 44 against UTSA and 56 against Navy. Even in their win against Tulane, they allowed 7.3 YPP.

These two teams are 123rd and 124th in explosiveness allowed, and I think we'll see quick touchdown drives both ways. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers no longer have Joe Girard who was an elite outside shooter last year. Girard was also a poor defender though. They lost a great shooter, but they are much better in perimeter defense this season. Clemson has been mixing in some zone defenses and slowing down the opposition nicely. Opponents have played at the third slowest pace in the country against Clemson. They have slowed the pace down against ultra fast paced foes like Kentucky and Penn State.

South Carolina is 264th in tempo this year. The Gamecocks are 34th in effective field goal percentage defense. South Carolina has played better opposing offenses than defenses. South Carolina's offense has relied on getting to the line a lot, but Clemson has been good at defending without fouling. 

This is a rivalry game where both defenses are significantly better than the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Grambling State Tigers have played a brutally difficult schedule so far this year. Grambling has played the sixth toughest schedule in the country. Grambling has also played a bunch of teams that love to run at an extremely fast pace. In two of their last four games they have faced Cal Poly (#1 in tempo) and New Mexico (#4 in tempo). Grambling prefers to play a much slower pace, and they should get their wish in this one.

SE Louisiana is 220th in average possession length. They prefer to slow things down as well. SE Louisiana takes a lot of low percentage mid range jumpers. They aren't good at getting to the line, and they don't have many good long range shooters.

These two teams played each other last year and it was a 48-47 final with just 54 possessions in the game. I don't expect that low of a score, but I do think the current total is too high. Look for a half court battle here. The two offenses have been very inefficient the last two seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals offense looked like a mess last week with Kyler Murray throwing picks and being out of rhythm, but I like them to bounce back against a weak New England Patriots defense. 

New England doesn't have the kind of secondary to keep Arizona's passing attack quiet all game. The Pats are giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt despite playing a relatively easy schedule of opposing passing attacks.

New England's offense is much better with Drake Maye. Maye has impressed me quite a bit this season. He's a great scrambler, and he is up against a Cardinals defense that has struggled against quarterbacks who can run. 

With Kyler Murray as the home quarterback, Cardinals games with a posted total of 49 or lower are 19-11 to the over. Drake Maye's games as a starter are 6-2 to the over. The two unders were against lower scoring teams in the Titans and Bears.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mercer Bears have a new coach in Ryan Ridder this year. Ridder has been pushing the pace to the extreme ever since he has been a head coach. He got Bethune Cookman to play at a top 20 pace in the country. He got UT Martin to play at a top 20 tempo in the country. Ridder has Mercer playing at the 37th quickest average possession length right now. 

Mercer has also played against some very slow paced team so far this year. The Stetson, South Carolina, West Georgia, and South Alabama type opponents really look to slow the pace down. 

Chicago State is a terrible team. They rank 81st in overall tempo. They are 347th out of 364 in shot selection allowed. They have allowed 85 points or more in 5 of their last 9 games. They foul a lot and are terrible on the defensive boards. 

Mercer is 282nd in defensive efficiency. The Bears should be pushing the pace to the extreme and with such a fast pace I think Chicago State can do enough to get this one over the number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins is finally getting back into a groove. We know this offense has a ton of weapons and with Tua healthy they should be able to move it well on just about everyone. 

The Houston defense is good at rushing the passer, but I think Miami can scheme up enough quick passes to keep them guessing here. Miami has multiple good backs and great wide receivers who can be utilized in the short passing game.

I think C.J. Stroud is due for some positive regression with healthier wide receivers around him, and the Dolphins defense is no better than mediocre.

This is a game played on a fast track and I like both teams to get well into the 20's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The VCU Rams are first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 5th in defensive efficiency. VCU has been clamping down opponents all year long. VCU has allowed 61 points or fewer in regulation in eight of their last nine games. 

Colorado State has lost a ton of offensive talent in the last couple years. Colorado State is struggling to get good looks this year. They are just 273rd in offensive shot selection. Colorado State is still looking for a team leader and an identity on the offensive end. The Rams are 54th in shot selection allowed, and they are 64th in defensive efficiency. They have been playing some very good defense.

This is a neutral court contest. Long term neutral court games have been much better to under bettors than regular games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars are 343rd out of 364 teams in the country in tempo. Providence doesn't want to push the pace at all. St. Bonaventure is 308th in tempo, so they are happy to play at a slow pace as well. This game should be played almost exclusively in the half court.

Providence has Bryce Hopkins back, but their offense is too stagnant. They rely on isolation basketball too much. The Friars are a good defensive team and they are good at allowing only one shot for the opposition.

St. Bonaventure is 52nd in defensive efficiency in the country. They have allowed 56 points or less in three straight games. On offense they rely on getting to the hoop, but Providence protects the paint well.

This is a neutral court contest. Long term neutral court games have been much better to under bettors than regular games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are 318th in defensive efficiency. Northern Arizona is 344th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Northern Arizona doesn't play fast, but they are so weak defensively that their games can get pretty high on a regular basis.

Pepperdine started the year playing very slowly, but they have definitely sped up their tempo of late. Pepperdine has also faced a bunch of really good defenses. In fact, KenPom has them facing the 83rd ranked defenses on a strength of schedule basis thus far. The offenses their defense has gone up against are ranked just 231st. This game is a flip for Pepperdine where they will be playing against a team that is much worse on defense and is serviceable on offense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are very weak offensively this year. Tulsa is shooting 28% from 3 point range on the season. UCF's defense is typically excellent in the paint and defending midrange jumpers, the way to try to beat them is with 3's. Tulsa seems unlikely to be able to do that. Tulsa is 356th in the country in open 3 rate.

UCF is mixing in some zone on defense at times. The Knights have forced turnovers at a pretty high rate, but still not fouled much this year. 

Tulsa has slowed their pace down some this year. They shouldn't want a track meet game here.

This is a neutral court contest. Long term neutral court games have been much better to under bettors than regular games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves have been playing lockdown defense of late. Minnesota is easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games. They are allowing just 0.938 points per possession during that time. They are 24th in offensive efficiency during that same period. Minnesota has been settling for too many bad shots on offense. Minnesota's pace is 24th quickest in the league, so they are playing slowly.

LeBron James is out for this game for the Lakers. James has the lowest individual defense rating of anyone on the Lakers team. The other guys who will get more time have a worse offensive rating, but have been significantly better than James on defense. The Lakers are 22nd in pace in the last five games.

Aaron Smith and Marc Davis are two of the referees in this contest and they have been two of the very best under refs in the business.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UT Martin Skyhawks are 358th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Alabama State Hornets are 312th. The last two seasons, Alabama State has finished 363rd and 362nd in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. These are two bad teams, but they are especially bad on offense.

The pace could be relatively quick in this game, but I'm going with the defenses to have the upper hand and the offenses to take a lot of low quality shots.

Alabama State has given up a lot of points this year, but that was against the likes of UNLV, SMU, Cincinnati, and LSU. The defense should look better against UT Martin. 

UT Martin has been good defending beyond the arc and Alabama State likes to take a lot of long range jumpers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Michigan Wolverines square off at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. 

These are two teams who are improved this season and have new big name head coaches. Both Calipari and May have a history of having very strong defensive teams as well.

Arkansas is 75th in offensive efficiency so far this year. They are 19th in defensive efficiency. Michigan is 43rd in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency. 

Both of the teams play slightly quicker than average, but both are better defensively and are great at defending without fouling. 

These two teams have had some trouble with turnovers offensively too. I think the efficiency numbers on offense could be lower here.

Madison Square Garden is one of the very best under venues in the country. This is a tough shooting backdrop and under bettors have done extremely well on MSG games in college hoops in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Chargers offense has struggled without JK Dobbins. Justin Herbert has been under more pressure, and the passing game is having to do it all. This Kansas City defensive line is fantastic in the middle and I think they'll be in the backfield quite a bit on Sunday night.

Kansas City's offense just hasn't gotten going this year. The Chiefs are 22nd in yards per play for the season. They are 24th in the last three games. Kansas City is up against a Chargers defense that is third in the league in yards per play allowed on the road this year.

A bit of a wind (11 or 12 mph) here in Kansas City on Sunday night. This is also the Bill Vinovich crew. The under is an impressive 104-72 in this crew's games. They have the best under record of any of the referee crews.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* In the last six games, the Cleveland Cavs have the fourth best defense in terms of defensive efficiency. The Miami Heat have the tenth best defense in terms of defensive efficiency.

Miami is 28th in that time in tempo. I'm confident the Heat will have a good game plan ready. That game plan should including slowing the game down and trying to win in a lower possession environment. 

The last three games between these two have been below this total. I think both defenses should bring the intensity here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Cardinals are one of the most improved defenses in the NFL from the start of the season to right now. Arizona is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. Seattle is third in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. 

I think both of these defensive coordinators are excellent and the head coaches are really focusing on defense as well.

These two teams just played a 16-6 game recently and that was with a pick six. These two offenses haven't been explosive of late, and I think there will be plenty of tackles for a loss in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas State has been known as a defensive team for a bunch of years now. Texas State ranks in the bottom one percent of all teams in offensive spacing of the floor. This team isn't good in their halfcourt offensive sets, but they also are weak in transition. Texas State is scrappy though and doesn't give up a lot of good looks.

The Rice Owls have turned into a very good defensive team. Rice is 10th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Owls are just 259th in tempo as well. Texas State is 325th in average possession length.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Canisius Golden Griffins are one of the very worst defenses in the country. Canisius is 359th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Canisius has faced only the 254th toughest slate of opposing offenses. They have faced the 99th toughest slate of defenses. Their raw stats are a bit skewed toward lower scoring games than they should be.

Siena has given up 68 points or more in all but one game so far this year. This isn't a good defensive team either. The Saints games tend to have a lot of free throws because of their aggression both on offense and defense.

A total set this low with poor defenses is pretty rare.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mercyhurst Lakers are a new Division One team. It's clear that this team is going to struggle to score this year. They are 322nd in the nation in shot selection. They are 347th in offensive efficiency. They have faced a relatively easy slate of defenses and a fairly difficult slate of opposing offenses in the early going.

Lafayette is 301st in offensive efficiency. The Leopards are 311th in offensive rebounding percentage. Lafayette is 272nd in the country in overall tempo rating.

Mercyhurst is 356th in average possession length. This team is stalling about as much as anyone. They are up against a Lafayette defense that is 94th in effective field goal percentage defense.

A slow paced halfcourt battle between two teams who settle for a lot of bad shots here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates are 316th in spacing on offense this year. East Carolina has struggled to score in recent games. The Pirates have played the 344th toughest slate of defenses so far this year. South Carolina is absolutely one of the best defenses they have seen thus far.

East Carolina is 312th in overall tempo. They will try to slow the game down. They rank 30th in shot selection allowed, and their defense has improved through the season.

South Carolina is a below average paced team as well. The Gamecocks are 46th in effective field goal percentage defense. They protect the paint well, and East Carolina isn't a good three point shooting team.

The last two years these teams have met and the combined totals have been 120 and 130 points. I think around 130 is where this will land as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville State Gamecocks offense started the year off in disappointing fashion. They underachieved for a bit before they settled on Tyler Huff as the starting quarterback. Huff's dual threat ability really helped this team go to the next level throughout the season.

Huff was injured last week against Western Kentucky. He has a leg/ankle injury and is questionable for this game. If Huff does play he should be less than 100%. He has less than a week to recover before this Friday night contest.

Western Kentucky doesn't have much of a running game. That should put a lot of pressure on Veltkamp to be great here. I think the Jacksonville State pass rush can get to Veltkamp some in this game. 

These two defenses both do a really good job of preventing plays. They are both top 30 in the country in explosiveness allowed. Both defenses have done a great job bending but not breaking and being strong in the red zone.

This total is set pretty high for question marks surrounding the most important player on the Gamecocks offense. Western Kentucky has been inconsistent offensively this year as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* A rare noon eastern start time during the week here. Lipscomb has really impressed me this year. I think the Bison can have a very good season. Lipscomb has really turned up the defense this year. The Bison are 91st in  the country in defensive efficiency so far this year. Lipscomb is 78th in shot selection allowed. Lipscomb is also first in the country in free throw rate allowed. The Bison do an excellent job defending without fouling.

Southeast Missouri State is a much weaker team. They are 329th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 351st in the country in shot selection. They have improved to be about an average defense so far this year. Southeast Missouri State often struggles with putting the opposition on the line too much, but Lipscomb is bottom 15 in the country in free throw attempts/field goal attempts.

An early start time and a projected blowout in favor of Lipscomb should help the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates have been an under machine this year. Seton Hall lost their top scorers from a year ago and they are clearly struggling badly on offense. They are 320th in offensive efficiency in the country. Seton Hall hasn't scored more than 63 points in regulation in any of their first eight games of the season. 

NJIT is dreadful on offense. They are 341st in shot selection in the country. They haven't played a defense as good as Seton Hall yet this year. NJIT has been held to 57 points or fewer four times already this year. 

These teams are 311th and 358th in tempo. This game should be played at a snail's pace. 

Seton Hall should get the lead and control the pace here. They might top 63 points here, but I think they'll hold NJIT to a very low number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rider Broncs have been a really good under team this year. Rider is taking some terrible shots on a consistent basis. Rider is 353rd in shot selection in the country. The Broncs are bottom 15 in the country in shot quality on offense. The Rider defense is actually pretty good. They are 148th in shot selection allowed. Rider is good at defending without fouling.

Fairfield has changed up the way they play. The Stags is short on playmakers on offense. They are 351st in effective field goal percentage offense. Fairfield is playing to try to win lower scoring contests. They are 274th in overall tempo.

Rider is 348th in average possession length. The Broncs also waste a lot of possessions with turnovers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 359th in average offensive possession length. Coastal Carolina is stalling in a big way on offense. They are a big team and they are looking to turn these games into halfcourt battles. Coastal is 292nd in shot selection this year, so they are struggling to get good looks. They are good on defense though. Coastal is 22nd in effective field goal percentage defense.

Campbell is 247th in overall tempo, so the Fighting Camels don't move very quickly either. It's only fitting I guess. Campbell is a team that virtually never gets second chances, but they are great on the defensive glass.

Five of Coastal Carolina's seven contests have been 128 points or lower. I think this one stays low scoring too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Duquesne Dukes rank 108th in shot selection in the country. Duquesne is attacking the rim and getting to the free throw line more than the average team. The Dukes should live at the line against a St. Peter's team that ranks among the ten most foul happy teams in the country. They have been among the 25 most foul happy teams in the country for three straight years. Duquesne's shooting numbers should positively regress toward the mean. 

St. Peter's does two things on offense. They look to shoot the 3 point jumper, and they attack the offensive boards and get fouled a bunch. Duquesne is terrible at defending the 3 point shot. The Dukes are also a team that fouls a bunch. 

Duquesne has played four games at neutral sites and that typically lowers the shooting percentages. This is an ultra low total, and the Dukes want to push the pace when they can.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lipscomb Bison are 89th in shot selection allowed. They are also first in the country in free throw rate allowed. It is very hard to get to the line against Lipscomb. This team is much improved defensively. Lipscomb has also slowed their pace down quite a bit from a year ago.

Chattanooga gets to the line quite a bit and shoots free throws well. I just don't think they can rely on those trips to the line as much against Lipscomb. Chattanooga's last three Division I opponents have all ranked in the top 30 in tempo, so their recent scores are inflated. 

These two teams met last year and the final total was 150, and Lipscomb has been much slower and much improved defensively this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers offense has been much improved of late. Bryce Young is playing decent football. The Kansas City defense is very good, and Young played well against them a week ago. Chuba Hubbard has turned into a really solid running back. The Panthers pass catchers have also gotten a bit healthier.

The Tampa Bay Bucs are fifth in the NFL in yards per play. I really like the offensive scheme they are running with Coen. Baker Mayfield is playing well and with Mike Evans healthy they have one of the top playmakers at wide receiver in the league.

Tampa Bay has a history of some very high scoring games. Five of their last seven games have gone to 54 points or higher total. 

These are two bottom six or seven defenses in the NFL.

The referee crew in this one has been 24-17 to the over. The weather for this game is good with a temperature in the mid 40's and almost no wind.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers defense isn't a bad defense, but they are certainly not the dominant defense they have looked like in the stats earlier in the season. They had a run of tremendous luck of facing weak quarterbacks and backup quarterbacks for a long time. The Bengals and Ravens both moved the ball easily on the Chargers. 

I'm not saying the Falcons are on par with the Ravens or Bengals offense, but the Falcons do have a lot of good skill position talent. They are playing on the fast track here. I think they can make some things happen.

The Chargers offense has gotten more pass heavy of late. Justin Herbert is fully healthy and with Dobbins injured the Chargers are likely to throw it even more. The Falcons are dead last in the NFL in sacks. I see Herbert having a lot of time to throw the ball down the field here. The Falcons have a below average defense on the whole.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kent State has been able to slow the pace down against everyone this year. Kent State got Auburn to play at just 63 possessions. Kent State pulled Louisiana and UC Irvine into slower paced games as well.

Kent State has major offensive problems. They are outside the top 250 in effective field goal percentage offense. They just don't have a go to guy on offense. Kent State is excellent on defense though. The Golden Flashes contest shots well and they are good on the defensive boards.

Kennesaw State is a fast paced team, but they aren't as fast as a year ago. I think their totals are being inflated a bit. They are taller this year, and their length has helped their defense a lot.

This neutral court has been tough on shooters thus far.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams rank in the top 28 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Lanier has this Rice team improving dramatically on defense from what they have been in recent seasons. The Owls have slowed the pace down as well. 

These two teams have done a great job slowing teams down from beyond the three point line, and both of these teams do take a lot of long range jumpers. I see this helping the under, especially with this game being played in a neutral court in Nassau.

I think this total is too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers gained 8.2 yards per play and put up 39 points on Florida Atlantic last week. Charlotte has a new coach, and they were more aggressive offensively in that game. 

UAB scored 40 points in a 40-14 win over Rice last week. UAB is 32nd in the nation in tempo. The Blazers have had a lot of points in most of their games by one team or the other. In fact, every UAB game this year has had one team with at least 31 points. In six of their last eight games, one of the teams involved has hit at least 40 points.

UAB has actually hit some more big plays with Kitna at quarterback. The Charlotte defense has allowed 33 plays of 30 or more yards this year.

Charlotte is first in the nation in explosiveness on offense. They are likely to hit a few big gainers here. They have 58 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. 

Both offenses have been bothered by strong defensive lines that cause havoc in the backfield. Both of these defenses rank in the bottom 15 in the country in havoc created, so the quarterbacks should have time.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers are 348th in average possession length in the country. They are doing a great job slowing the pace down. App State was second in the country at defending without fouling last year, and they are third this year in that same statistic. That's important because UNC Wilmington has relied on getting to the line to be efficient on offense this year.

UNC Wilmington scored just 59 points on Colgate and 69 on Sam Houston the last couple years. They are without their top two scoring options from a year ago. UNC Wilmington has slowed their pace down a lot in recent games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are 121st and 122nd in pace of play. There shouldn't be very many possessions in this game. 

Miami is first in the MAC in yards per play allowed. Salopek is the leader of a really good Miami Redhawks defense. 

Bowling Green is likely to load up the box and try to make Gabbert and Miami's offense to beat them through the air. Miami's wide receivers have loads of drops this year, and Gabbert has struggled for much of the season.

These two teams are 63rd and 66th in the country in explosiveness on offense. I don't think there will be many big plays.

Fannin Jr. is banged up and is questionable here. He will likely play for Bowling Green, but him at less than 100% certainly slows this offense.

The wind here is forecast to be 18 mph sustained with gusts to 25 mph. This is a stadium where the wind tunnels and it should change the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini are first in the country in shot selection allowed. This is a good defense that is forcing opponents into difficult looks. Arkansas is 63rd in that same metric.

Arkansas is 7th in defensive efficiency overall. Illinois is 17th. These two teams are 32nd and 83rd in offensive efficiency.

There's no doubt the pace will be quick in this game, but I like the defenses to make things tough enough on the opposing offense to keep the game under this high total. 

Both teams are top 17 in the country in defending without fouling. 

This is a neutral court game which is a plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions are averaging 37.6 points per game at home this year. Detroit is is averaging 48.6 points per game in their last three home games. Jared Goff is surrounded by a plethora of weapons. The Lions are a great offense, especially when they are home on the fast track in Detroit. 

Chicago's defense ranks last in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. The Bears defense is no better than mediocre, and of late they have looked worse than that. Chicago's offense has shown signs of improvement in the last couple games. They did make some coaching changes. The Bears did put up 391 yards on Green Bay two weeks ago and 398 yards and 27 points last week against the Vikings.

Detroit wants to put on a show for Thanksgiving viewers. The Lions are likely to put up a pretty big number. I think Chicago can do enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Richmond Spiders have played five straight games under this total. Richmond has seen all but one of those games finish with 127 points or fewer in regulation. The Spiders are 276th in average possession length, so they are clearly looking to slow the game down. Richmond shoots it poorly from 3 point range, and they get virtually no second chance points.

Ball State's offense has struggled of late. They were held to 59 points at home by Detroit. They put up just 63 against Eastern Kentucky. The Cardinals rely on getting to the free throw line. In the past three full seasons Richmond has been top 50 in defending without fouling.

This is a neutral court game which is a positive.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This version of the Charleston Cougars is a whole lot different than last year's version. Chris Mack is the new head coach. He doesn't have this team pushing the pace nearly as much as Pat Kelsey did. Charleston is 251st in shot selection this year so far as well. They aren't getting very good shots.

Northern Kentucky is 255th in overall tempo. Northern Kentucky is 345th in the nation in shot selection. Every Division One game of Northern Kentucky has finished with 136 total points or fewer. Northern Kentucky has consistently been a good defense under Coach Horn. They mix in zone defenses and zone pressure to actually slow the game down.

I think this line is too high based on Charleston's history from the past couple seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have played three Division One opponents this year. All three of them rank 75th or faster in tempo so far this season. Now, LA Tech plays a Richmond team that is 254th in average possession length. Richmond is back to playing very slowly.

Richmond scored just 67 points against Florida Tech last game. Richmond could score only 48 against Charlotte. They had just 61 points in regulation against Bucknell. The Spiders get virtually no second chance points.

LA Tech is 46th in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a really good defensive team. They can sometimes struggle on the defensive glass, but Richmond isn't the team that generally takes advantage of that weakness.

This is a neutral site game where unders have had the edge in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SE Louisiana Lions are 299th in offensive efficiency. This is a team that really struggles to get open looks. They don't get to the free throw line much, and they don't get many second chance points either. 

Gardner Webb turns it over too much on offense. They are learning a new offense under a new head coach. Gardner Webb has faced the 15th toughest slate of offenses so far this year, and overall I've liked what I've seen from their defense. This team is focusing on defense first this season.

This is an early season tournament on a neutral floor (Hard Rock Riviera) that has been good for under bettors in the past. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans are 314th in average possession length in the country. Long Beach State is 338th in average possession length. These are two very slow paced teams. I would expect this game to be played in the halfcourt. 

UNC Greensboro is 318th in the nation in shot selection. Long Beach State is 350th in the nation in shot selection (that is bottom 3%). These two teams settle for a lot of bad looks. Their defenses hold opponents to 80th in shot selection and 159th. The defenses are stronger than the offenses for both teams.

This is a late night game in Las Vegas at a neutral site. I think this has the potential to be a very ugly contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Hampshire Wildcats have completely changed their style of play. They have slowed down drastically from last year. They started this year looking pretty fast paced again, but they have slowed things down a bunch in their last few games. Nathan Davis' team just doesn't have enough offensive weapons. New Hampshire was 20th in average possession length last year, and they are 267th in average possession length this year. 

Trey Woodyard is one of the most important players to this New Hampshire team, and he has missed the last three games. They have slowed things down even more without him.

Columbia is playing a bit slower this year, and they are playing much better defense. They are 80th in shot selection allowed after being outside the top 200 last year. Columbia has been held to 58 points or fewer in four of their last six against Division One opponents.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons are bottom 20 in the nation in tempo. Drexel almost never gets to the free throw line so they are reliant on shooting it well from the floor. The Dragons lost both Amari Williams and Justin Moore from last year's team, and they were two of their key guys.

Fort Wayne has played mainly above average tempo teams, and Drexel is easily the slowest pace team they have played so far this year. The Mastadons are great at the free throw line, but Drexel has been elite at defending without fouling in the last few seasons. Fort Wayne sometimes has problems with fouling too much on defense, but as mentioned before Drexel very rarely gets to the charity stripe.

An early site neutral game that tips off early in the afternoon.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins offense is improving week by week with Tua back and Hill getting a bit healthier. The Dolphins are explosive and this Patriots defense is still a bottom ten unit in the NFL. The Patriots defense isn't innovative and their coverages are too easy to read for the best offenses. 

The New England Patriots offense is definitely moving the ball much better with Drake Maye. Maye has shown several good signs of being a good long term option under center. The Dolphins defense is a mediocre unit.

I see this as a game where the Dolphins have potential to score a bunch, and the Patriots should be able to do enough in a game script where they are playing catchup and throwing it around.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Texans have Nico Collins back, and he makes a world of difference for C.J. Stroud and this Texans offense. Collins is the game changer on the outside that opens everything else up for Houston. 

The Titans offense has certainly been better of late. They are averaging 5.5 yards per play in their last three games, which is above the league average during that time. Will Levis has been a bit better since returning from injury.

The Titans defense is poor at getting off the field on key plays, and I like the Texans ability to make them pay once they get into the red zone. Stroud is a good decision maker.

This one is played on the fast track with a very low total. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a very rare 10:30 am eastern start time. For Portland, this is a 7:30 am body clock start time. They have had several days here to get used to the time change, but this is a very early start time for everyone here. The earliest of starts have trended a bit under the total long term. 

Early season neutral site games have gone under the total at a good rate over the last 15 years as well. This is a high total with an early start on a neutral floor.

Portland has slowed their pace down quite a bit this year. Princeton is a good defensive rebounding team and a team that does a good job defending without fouling.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma defense has been superb this year. They are 13th in success rate allowed. They are first in the SEC in yards per carry allowed and 2nd in the SEC in yards per play allowed. The Oklahoma team this year has disappointed, but it definitely hasn't been the fault of the defense.

Alabama is bottom 30 in the country in offensive line yards. The Crimson Tide offensive line has really struggled in run blocking this year. Jalen Milroe is excellent and he has made some things happen even with that poor offensive line play. In general though, Alabama has been better in the passing game.

Oklahoma will be up against an underrated Alabama defense. They are 14th in success rate allowed on defense. Oklahoma is averaging a miserable 2.49 yards per carry on offense. I don't think they'll be able to run the ball here.

The weather could play a major role here. There are expected to be sustained winds of 17 mph and gusts to 30 mph during this game. In general that leads to more running and I think both run defenses have the advantage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders have a good quarterback in Vattiato. The problem this year has been the offensive line is really bad in pass blocking and he hasn't had enough time to throw. When he has time to throw, he is a solid quarterback. New Mexico State ranks 119th in pass rushing grade at PFF and they have just 13 sacks all season. I think the MTSU passing game is going to look better in this game.

New Mexico State does have a good rushing attack. They are 38th in offensive line yards and 43rd in rushing play success rate. MTSU is 122nd in rushing play success rate allowed. Liberty just ran for more than 330 yards on them. LA Tech rolled up 551 yards of offense against MTSU. The Blue Raiders defense is a bottom ten unit in the country.

There are two bottom 15 defenses in the country in this contest. These offenses have been inconsistent, but I think the defenses are bad enough that the offenses can get it going some here. Also, this game means little to the teams with no chances of a bowl berth. That lends itself to higher scoring games on the whole.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans meet on Friday night in East Lansing. Purdue is having a very forgettable season. Michigan State has been inconsistent, but they have shown promising signs under Coach Smith.

Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo. Purdue is 108th in tempo out of 134 teams despite being far behind in most of their games. The Boilermakers have slowed their tempo down even more in Big Ten play. 

Michigan State is 120th in the country in tempo. The Spartans offensive line has struggled this season. They are 114th in offensive line yards and 117th in yards per carry. Michigan State is 121st in offensive explosiveness, so they haven't gotten many big plays.

Purdue has a decent running game, but the strength of the Michigan State defense is their ability to slow down the run. They are 24th in defensive line yards and 30th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

The weather here calls for sustained winds in the 16-17 mph range with gusts in the low 20's. There is also a chance for a passing shower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets are definitely a great offensive team. Toledo has put up some big numbers this year. That's why this total has been adjusted so far up. I think the total has been moved too far up now though.

Toledo is now going to play the slowest paced team they have played all year. The second slowest team they played was Detroit and that game played to 149 points. Toledo has played two defenses with a defensive efficiency rank of 300th or worse in the country in the last two games. Jacksonville State is 184th and they are 124th in effective field goal percentage defense.

Jacksonville State and Toledo have both been elite at defending without fouling in recent years. They are both also above average getting defensive rebounds.

This is a neutral site game and those have trended strongly to the under in college hoops in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have had one of the biggest tempo changes in the country this year. Coastal Carolina brought in Justin Gray and they have gone all the way down to 361st in average possession length on offense. That is slower than Virginia and Air Force. This is a Coastal Carolina team that has played 3 of their 4 games to a combined total score of 124 points or lower. 

IU Indianapolis has been a terrible offense the last couple years. This year doesn't appear to be much different. They are shooting 37% on two point shots which is bottom ten in the country. They are 331st in average possession length too, so this game should be played at a very slow pace.

This is a neutral site game and those have trended strongly to the under in college hoops in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia is hosting the first of an annual tournament that will be played here early each season. This is obviously a neutral site contest where both teams aren't familiar with the shooting backdrop. Early season neutral games have gone under at a high rate in the past 15 years in college hoops. That has been an even stronger angle when the total is set at a high number like this one.

Pitt improved their defense a lot last year, and in the offseason this Panthers team added a lot of height and shot blockers. Pitt is 15th in defensive efficiency in the country so far this year. 

LSU has played three straight games that have finished at 145 points or fewer. The Tigers have been reliant on offensive rebounds in the last couple years, and Pitt is an excellent defensive rebounding team. 

Pitt has played some very weak defenses this year and with the neutral floor and a decent LSU defense this is a bigger test for the Panthers offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wright State Raiders have a new coach this year. Scott Nagy was a guy who wanted to push the pace in a big way, but Clint Sargent has slowed the team down a good amount. Wright State was 25th in average possession length last year. They are 147th so far this year. Wright State ranks 329th in the country in shot selection according to Shot Quality. The Raiders aren't getting to the line much at all, and they don't get offensive rebounds.

Princeton has been historically a below average tempo team. They have played faster this year, but they have some relatively quick teams. Princeton is 196th in shot selection in the country. The Tigers are very poor on the offensive boards, but they are great on the defensive glass.

This is a neutral site game early in the season with a high total. A total this high with very few second chance opportunities- I have to play it toward the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates were 321st and 288th in effective field goal percentage offense the last two years. East Carolina has relied on a ridiculously high free throw rate and very high offensive rebounding rate to be successful on offense early this year. They aren't likely to keep getting 40 and 32 free throws by themselves. I think this is still a team that will struggle to score in the halfcourt.

Jacksonville State has been top 40 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage the last three seasons. The Gamecocks are an above average defense, but they don't have many  go to scoring options.

Both of these teams play much slower than the average team. I think this has the potential to be a rock fight. This game is played at Ocean Center (neutral court) where unders have had value in the past.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early start on a neutral floor in South Carolina. There won't be many fans at this game. These early season neutral site games have trended strongly toward the under in the last 15 years in college hoops.

Ohio has allowed opponents to shoot 53.3% from 3 point range so far this season. That will obviously regress toward the mean. Ohio is a mediocre defensive team that happens to be playing against a Middle Tennessee State team that has struggled shooting it from long range the last few seasons.

MTSU has struggled with offensive efficiency the last few seasons because of their poor shooting numbers and high turnover percentage. MTSU is known for solid defense though.

Ohio has played some good offenses this year and that has inflated this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is not a comfortable bet. A bet on an under in an Alabama game isn't something I really want to do, but the number has gotten up to a point where I have to take it.

This is a neutral site game. Neutral site unders have done very well in college hoops in general in the last decade. The neutral site unders with very high totals have done even better toward the under.

Alabama is a great offense that flies tempo wise. I feel like that is absolutely baked into this total. The question is what will Illinois do with the pace here. If Illinois is wise they will try to slow the game down some and win with defense.

Illinois has a pretty clear height advantage here. Coach Underwood said this will be a good defensive team, and so far they have been improved on defense. Illinois is less efficient on offense than a year ago.

A 87-80 game is an under here with this high of a number. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets host the Ohio Bobcats on Wednesday night in Toledo. 

Ohio has the second ranked defense in the MAC. The Bobcats are giving up just 3.06 yards per carry in MAC play. Ohio is 20th in rushing play success rate allowed on defense. The Bobcats defense has been in great form of late. They have allowed a total of 26 points in their last three games combined.

Toledo is 37th nationally in rushing play success rate allowed. They are good at getting teams behind the chains with their aggressive front seven. Ohio is just 103rd in offensive explosiveness. The Bobcats are reliant on slowly moving the ball down the field. Ohio is 108th out of 134 teams in the country in tempo.

The two offensive lines here are subpar, and I think the defensive fronts can do a good job slowing down the run game. 

The weather here calls for 20 mph winds with gusts pushing 30 mph with rain showers expected. This kind of weather definitely changes the game and should make the teams more conservative on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins play at a very slow pace under Coach Mincy. Jacksonville is known for their defensive intensity and their ability to slow the game down. Jacksonville has played three opponents who want to run. The Dolphins now face a Virginia Tech Hokies team that is the slowest paced team they have faced so far this year.

Virginia Tech has slowed their tempo down quite a bit from last year. The Hokies took advantage of terrible defenses in Delaware State and USC Upstate, but their offense has looked shaky against Winthrop and Penn State.

Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot, and I expect a lot of turnovers leading to empty possessions and wasted time on the clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons lost Amari Williams to Kentucky and Justin Moore to Loyola Chicago. The Dragons offense takes a step back this season. They have slowed down their pace of play even more in the early season without Moore pushing the pace too.

Fairfield lost Jalen Leach to Northwestern, and Leach was their highest rating offensive player. The Stags have played drastically slower so far this year. Fairfield has yet to score more than 62 points in a game against a Division I opponent this year.

Neither of these teams attack the hoop much to get to the free throw line. Both have a history of being good on the defensive glass as well.

I had this one down in the low 130's. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts are a team I like to play unders with for a few reasons. First, they are good at controlling the pace of the game. They also are great at defending without fouling. In the last few years, Vermont has been excellent on the defensive boards as well. Vermont has played all four games under this total this year. Three of the four have been a total of 129 points or fewer.

Buffalo has  played a lot of teams who push the pace so far this year. Vermont is the first team they have seen that is defense first and a slow tempo team. The Bulls don't foul much, and they struggle on the offensive end as far as efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills offense is a shell of its former self when it comes to weapons on the outside. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman are both out here. Amari Cooper is questionable. They have already been without a star wide receiver, but now they are really thin. 

The Kansas City Chiefs are also without their star receiver Rashee Rice. Kansas City is 19th in yards per play on offense this year. Patrick Mahomes is fantastic, but without Rice and Pacheco he has been limited in his ability to create big plays. 

Both Kansas City and Buffalo play at a slower pace than the average NFL team. 

Kansas City's defense is excellent. They should be able to keep the Bills in front of them and limit the big plays. The Buffalo defense has been really good against the run in the last few weeks, and they seem to be trending in the right direction.

This is a matchup of two great quarterbacks, but I think the injuries at the key skill position spots are going to help the defenses have the advantage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas offense has come on in a big way the last few games. Kansas is now first in the Big 12 in yards per play because of their great showings the last few weeks. Kansas put up 8.6 yards per play and 42 points on a good Houston defense. They just torched a good Iowa State team for 536 yards and 45 points. Jalon Daniels is taking shots down the field, and the Jayhawks offensive line is dominating in the trenches. 

BYU is just 88th in yards per carry allowed. They are 82nd in rushing play success rate allowed. I think Kansas can have a big day on the ground here. 

The Kansas defense is still a major weakness. Kansas is 116th in defensive line yards. BYU has improved running the football and will do damage here. Retzlaff is good for a couple big plays through the air too. Kansas is 9th in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed.

I expect a tight back and forth contest here. There is even a possibility of overtime with a spread this close and BYU's propensity for playing close games.

The two offenses are both better than the defenses here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs have played eight games against FBS opponents this season. Five of those eight games have finished with 45 combined points or fewer. Most of their lowest scoring games have been against the best teams they have played (Ole Miss, Texas, Clemson) with only the Alabama game being high scoring. 

Georgia's rushing attack has been very weak this year. Tennessee's front seven on defense is arguably the best in the country. The Bulldogs are going to have to throw the ball. I don't trust Carson Beck to do a good job moving it down the field with a lot of pressure in his face.

The Tennessee offense is only averaging 24.5 points per game in the SEC. They are 10th in yards per play in the SEC. The Volunteers have played six straight games that have stayed under this total! 

Nico Iamaleava is banged up and is questionable to play in this one. Even if he plays he'll likely be less than 100 percent. The passing game hasn't been working, and I think Kirby Smart will scheme up his defense to stop the run here and try to make Tennessee throw the football.

I like the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd have impressed on the offensive line. They are 23rd in offensive line yards this year. Marshall is 11th in the nation in yards per carry. That should be a problem for Coastal Carolina. Coastal Carolina is 120th in defensive line yards. They are 114th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

Coastal Carolina's offense has been pretty good this season. The Chanticleers are 51st in the country in yards per play. They are 20th in offensive explosiveness, and Marshall has given up a decent amount of big plays this year. 

Marshall has played some of the lower scoring and slower paced teams in the Sun Belt. Marshall has recent wins over UL Monroe and Southern Miss for example. Marshall did get in a high scoring shootout against App State earlier in the year.

Both of these teams play at a pace that is a little faster than average. I think this total is a few points too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal State Fullerton Titans don't have the point guards this year to push the pace like they have some of the years in the past. Fullerton is going to try to play through the frontcourt and slow things down. 

Cal State Fullerton put up 53 points on Stanford and 53 points on Colorado in their last two games. Oregon State plays slower than either of those two teams. I think Fullerton could have a hard time getting past 55 or 56 here.

Oregon State has been bottom 50 in the country in tempo in each of the last two seasons. The Beavers haven't given up more than 58 points in a game this season. Oregon State is a hard nosed team who should do a good job keeping Fullerton off the offensive boards here.

I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies have played eight games against FBS opponents so far this year. Five of those eight games have finished with a combined total of 43 points or fewer. 

Northern Illinois is coming off a high scoring game against Western Michigan, and I think that has given us a little extra value to the under in this game. Western Michigan has forced all of these MAC games to be high scoring. Northern Illinois now plays Akron, who has played in some low scoring games and some high scoring games.

The weather here should matter too. The forecast calls for steady rain and winds of 12 mph with gusts to 17 mph. That should make the coaching staffs a bit more conservative. That tends to lead to tighter games that stay under the number.

Akron is a respectable 54th in defensive line yards. N. Illinois isn't very good in the passing game, and the Huskies are 113th in explosiveness on offense. N. Illinois is 12th in the MAC in yards per play.

Akron is 116th in offensive line yards and should struggle to run the ball much here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers have more shooters to spread the floor out and knock down long range jumpers than they did last season. Charlotte isn't going to play fast, but they are likely to be efficient on offense. They don't turn the ball over very much at all.

Richmond is pushing the pace some more this year. They lack interior shot blockers and Charlotte's big men should be able to do work down low also. Richmond always runs good offensive sets under Chris Mooney. The Spiders should be able to get some open looks with dribble drives and kick outs.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bellarmine Knights are known for their very slow pace. They have ranked in the bottom 50 (360 plus teams) in the country in tempo in each of the last 4 seasons. Bellarmine is bottom 15 in tempo so far this season. 

Southern Indiana was able to slow the pace down against Bucknell and Marshall in their last two games. 

These two are an interesting matchup because Southern Indiana is wildly inefficient from the floor in general on offense, but they are great at getting to the line. Bellarmine is excellent at not fouling.

Southern Indiana is decent defensively except for the fact that they foul like crazy. Bellarmine very rare gets to the line though.

I think this total is inflated by a few points. Both teams have faced teams who like to play fast so far this year. They are now playing another team who slows things down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Belmont Bruins and Lipscomb Bison are bitter rivals. Both schools are in Nashville, Tennessee. These two coaches know each other well. The players on both teams know each other very well. Only one of the last six meetings between these two teams has finished higher than 152 points total.

Lipscomb is playing slower this year because of their ability to play inside out. The Bison are excellent on the defensive glass. They are very good at not fouling as well.

Belmont lost their top three players from a year ago. The NIL era has really hit Casey Alexander's team hard. The Bruins are far less explosive on offense than they were the last couple years. Belmont doesn't attack the rim much and doesn't get to the line much at all. Unless they are red hot shooting from deep, I think their scoring numbers will be down.

Take the under here.