*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors play this very unique zone full court press that actually slows the game down significantly. Merrimack is a tricky matchup for opposing offenses. On the other side, Merrimack is atrocious on offense. Merrimack has been overmatched against top 75 opponents the last few years. 

Merrimack has faced two top 75 teams this year: VCU (they scored 42 points) and Butler (they scored 39 points). Last year they were held to 52 points by Ohio State and 49 by Cincinnati. I don't think they can do much offensively against Kyle Smith's Stanford defense that has a big height advantage.

Stanford's last four opponents were all in the top 120 in pace. Merrimack is completely different. They enter 325th in tempo this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers offense has been playing their very best at the end of the season. In the last six games, Memphis has averaged a little more than 39 points per game. 

Memphis has a history of showing up with some great offense in bowl games under Ryan Silverfield as well. Memphis put up 36 points against a good Iowa State defense last year. They scored 38 on Utah State a couple years ago. Memphis also had that 53-39 loss to Penn State in the Cotton Bowl under Silverfield. 

Seth Hennigan is a good veteran quarterback and he's up against a West Virginia defense that is 124th in QBR allowed. Now, West Virginia is without two corners who are in the transfer portal. West Virginia is also without star linebacker Josiah Trotter. The Mountaineers defense has allowed 36.17 points per game in their last six games. Now, they are missing some of their very best defenders.

West Virginia has most of their key guys on offense playing here. The Mountaineers are 10th in the nation in offensive explosiveness, and Memphis gives up a bunch of big plays. The Tigers are 123rd in explosiveness allowed. Memphis played a very weak schedule of opposing offenses,  but they allowed 44 against UTSA and 56 against Navy. Even in their win against Tulane, they allowed 7.3 YPP.

These two teams are 123rd and 124th in explosiveness allowed, and I think we'll see quick touchdown drives both ways. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers no longer have Joe Girard who was an elite outside shooter last year. Girard was also a poor defender though. They lost a great shooter, but they are much better in perimeter defense this season. Clemson has been mixing in some zone defenses and slowing down the opposition nicely. Opponents have played at the third slowest pace in the country against Clemson. They have slowed the pace down against ultra fast paced foes like Kentucky and Penn State.

South Carolina is 264th in tempo this year. The Gamecocks are 34th in effective field goal percentage defense. South Carolina has played better opposing offenses than defenses. South Carolina's offense has relied on getting to the line a lot, but Clemson has been good at defending without fouling. 

This is a rivalry game where both defenses are significantly better than the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Grambling State Tigers have played a brutally difficult schedule so far this year. Grambling has played the sixth toughest schedule in the country. Grambling has also played a bunch of teams that love to run at an extremely fast pace. In two of their last four games they have faced Cal Poly (#1 in tempo) and New Mexico (#4 in tempo). Grambling prefers to play a much slower pace, and they should get their wish in this one.

SE Louisiana is 220th in average possession length. They prefer to slow things down as well. SE Louisiana takes a lot of low percentage mid range jumpers. They aren't good at getting to the line, and they don't have many good long range shooters.

These two teams played each other last year and it was a 48-47 final with just 54 possessions in the game. I don't expect that low of a score, but I do think the current total is too high. Look for a half court battle here. The two offenses have been very inefficient the last two seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals offense looked like a mess last week with Kyler Murray throwing picks and being out of rhythm, but I like them to bounce back against a weak New England Patriots defense. 

New England doesn't have the kind of secondary to keep Arizona's passing attack quiet all game. The Pats are giving up 7.4 yards per pass attempt despite playing a relatively easy schedule of opposing passing attacks.

New England's offense is much better with Drake Maye. Maye has impressed me quite a bit this season. He's a great scrambler, and he is up against a Cardinals defense that has struggled against quarterbacks who can run. 

With Kyler Murray as the home quarterback, Cardinals games with a posted total of 49 or lower are 19-11 to the over. Drake Maye's games as a starter are 6-2 to the over. The two unders were against lower scoring teams in the Titans and Bears.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mercer Bears have a new coach in Ryan Ridder this year. Ridder has been pushing the pace to the extreme ever since he has been a head coach. He got Bethune Cookman to play at a top 20 pace in the country. He got UT Martin to play at a top 20 tempo in the country. Ridder has Mercer playing at the 37th quickest average possession length right now. 

Mercer has also played against some very slow paced team so far this year. The Stetson, South Carolina, West Georgia, and South Alabama type opponents really look to slow the pace down. 

Chicago State is a terrible team. They rank 81st in overall tempo. They are 347th out of 364 in shot selection allowed. They have allowed 85 points or more in 5 of their last 9 games. They foul a lot and are terrible on the defensive boards. 

Mercer is 282nd in defensive efficiency. The Bears should be pushing the pace to the extreme and with such a fast pace I think Chicago State can do enough to get this one over the number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins is finally getting back into a groove. We know this offense has a ton of weapons and with Tua healthy they should be able to move it well on just about everyone. 

The Houston defense is good at rushing the passer, but I think Miami can scheme up enough quick passes to keep them guessing here. Miami has multiple good backs and great wide receivers who can be utilized in the short passing game.

I think C.J. Stroud is due for some positive regression with healthier wide receivers around him, and the Dolphins defense is no better than mediocre.

This is a game played on a fast track and I like both teams to get well into the 20's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The VCU Rams are first in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 5th in defensive efficiency. VCU has been clamping down opponents all year long. VCU has allowed 61 points or fewer in regulation in eight of their last nine games. 

Colorado State has lost a ton of offensive talent in the last couple years. Colorado State is struggling to get good looks this year. They are just 273rd in offensive shot selection. Colorado State is still looking for a team leader and an identity on the offensive end. The Rams are 54th in shot selection allowed, and they are 64th in defensive efficiency. They have been playing some very good defense.

This is a neutral court contest. Long term neutral court games have been much better to under bettors than regular games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars are 343rd out of 364 teams in the country in tempo. Providence doesn't want to push the pace at all. St. Bonaventure is 308th in tempo, so they are happy to play at a slow pace as well. This game should be played almost exclusively in the half court.

Providence has Bryce Hopkins back, but their offense is too stagnant. They rely on isolation basketball too much. The Friars are a good defensive team and they are good at allowing only one shot for the opposition.

St. Bonaventure is 52nd in defensive efficiency in the country. They have allowed 56 points or less in three straight games. On offense they rely on getting to the hoop, but Providence protects the paint well.

This is a neutral court contest. Long term neutral court games have been much better to under bettors than regular games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks are 318th in defensive efficiency. Northern Arizona is 344th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Northern Arizona doesn't play fast, but they are so weak defensively that their games can get pretty high on a regular basis.

Pepperdine started the year playing very slowly, but they have definitely sped up their tempo of late. Pepperdine has also faced a bunch of really good defenses. In fact, KenPom has them facing the 83rd ranked defenses on a strength of schedule basis thus far. The offenses their defense has gone up against are ranked just 231st. This game is a flip for Pepperdine where they will be playing against a team that is much worse on defense and is serviceable on offense.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are very weak offensively this year. Tulsa is shooting 28% from 3 point range on the season. UCF's defense is typically excellent in the paint and defending midrange jumpers, the way to try to beat them is with 3's. Tulsa seems unlikely to be able to do that. Tulsa is 356th in the country in open 3 rate.

UCF is mixing in some zone on defense at times. The Knights have forced turnovers at a pretty high rate, but still not fouled much this year. 

Tulsa has slowed their pace down some this year. They shouldn't want a track meet game here.

This is a neutral court contest. Long term neutral court games have been much better to under bettors than regular games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves have been playing lockdown defense of late. Minnesota is easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games. They are allowing just 0.938 points per possession during that time. They are 24th in offensive efficiency during that same period. Minnesota has been settling for too many bad shots on offense. Minnesota's pace is 24th quickest in the league, so they are playing slowly.

LeBron James is out for this game for the Lakers. James has the lowest individual defense rating of anyone on the Lakers team. The other guys who will get more time have a worse offensive rating, but have been significantly better than James on defense. The Lakers are 22nd in pace in the last five games.

Aaron Smith and Marc Davis are two of the referees in this contest and they have been two of the very best under refs in the business.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UT Martin Skyhawks are 358th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Alabama State Hornets are 312th. The last two seasons, Alabama State has finished 363rd and 362nd in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. These are two bad teams, but they are especially bad on offense.

The pace could be relatively quick in this game, but I'm going with the defenses to have the upper hand and the offenses to take a lot of low quality shots.

Alabama State has given up a lot of points this year, but that was against the likes of UNLV, SMU, Cincinnati, and LSU. The defense should look better against UT Martin. 

UT Martin has been good defending beyond the arc and Alabama State likes to take a lot of long range jumpers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Michigan Wolverines square off at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. 

These are two teams who are improved this season and have new big name head coaches. Both Calipari and May have a history of having very strong defensive teams as well.

Arkansas is 75th in offensive efficiency so far this year. They are 19th in defensive efficiency. Michigan is 43rd in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency. 

Both of the teams play slightly quicker than average, but both are better defensively and are great at defending without fouling. 

These two teams have had some trouble with turnovers offensively too. I think the efficiency numbers on offense could be lower here.

Madison Square Garden is one of the very best under venues in the country. This is a tough shooting backdrop and under bettors have done extremely well on MSG games in college hoops in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Chargers offense has struggled without JK Dobbins. Justin Herbert has been under more pressure, and the passing game is having to do it all. This Kansas City defensive line is fantastic in the middle and I think they'll be in the backfield quite a bit on Sunday night.

Kansas City's offense just hasn't gotten going this year. The Chiefs are 22nd in yards per play for the season. They are 24th in the last three games. Kansas City is up against a Chargers defense that is third in the league in yards per play allowed on the road this year.

A bit of a wind (11 or 12 mph) here in Kansas City on Sunday night. This is also the Bill Vinovich crew. The under is an impressive 104-72 in this crew's games. They have the best under record of any of the referee crews.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* In the last six games, the Cleveland Cavs have the fourth best defense in terms of defensive efficiency. The Miami Heat have the tenth best defense in terms of defensive efficiency.

Miami is 28th in that time in tempo. I'm confident the Heat will have a good game plan ready. That game plan should including slowing the game down and trying to win in a lower possession environment. 

The last three games between these two have been below this total. I think both defenses should bring the intensity here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Cardinals are one of the most improved defenses in the NFL from the start of the season to right now. Arizona is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. Seattle is third in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. 

I think both of these defensive coordinators are excellent and the head coaches are really focusing on defense as well.

These two teams just played a 16-6 game recently and that was with a pick six. These two offenses haven't been explosive of late, and I think there will be plenty of tackles for a loss in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Texas State has been known as a defensive team for a bunch of years now. Texas State ranks in the bottom one percent of all teams in offensive spacing of the floor. This team isn't good in their halfcourt offensive sets, but they also are weak in transition. Texas State is scrappy though and doesn't give up a lot of good looks.

The Rice Owls have turned into a very good defensive team. Rice is 10th in effective field goal percentage defense. The Owls are just 259th in tempo as well. Texas State is 325th in average possession length.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Canisius Golden Griffins are one of the very worst defenses in the country. Canisius is 359th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Canisius has faced only the 254th toughest slate of opposing offenses. They have faced the 99th toughest slate of defenses. Their raw stats are a bit skewed toward lower scoring games than they should be.

Siena has given up 68 points or more in all but one game so far this year. This isn't a good defensive team either. The Saints games tend to have a lot of free throws because of their aggression both on offense and defense.

A total set this low with poor defenses is pretty rare.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mercyhurst Lakers are a new Division One team. It's clear that this team is going to struggle to score this year. They are 322nd in the nation in shot selection. They are 347th in offensive efficiency. They have faced a relatively easy slate of defenses and a fairly difficult slate of opposing offenses in the early going.

Lafayette is 301st in offensive efficiency. The Leopards are 311th in offensive rebounding percentage. Lafayette is 272nd in the country in overall tempo rating.

Mercyhurst is 356th in average possession length. This team is stalling about as much as anyone. They are up against a Lafayette defense that is 94th in effective field goal percentage defense.

A slow paced halfcourt battle between two teams who settle for a lot of bad shots here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates are 316th in spacing on offense this year. East Carolina has struggled to score in recent games. The Pirates have played the 344th toughest slate of defenses so far this year. South Carolina is absolutely one of the best defenses they have seen thus far.

East Carolina is 312th in overall tempo. They will try to slow the game down. They rank 30th in shot selection allowed, and their defense has improved through the season.

South Carolina is a below average paced team as well. The Gamecocks are 46th in effective field goal percentage defense. They protect the paint well, and East Carolina isn't a good three point shooting team.

The last two years these teams have met and the combined totals have been 120 and 130 points. I think around 130 is where this will land as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville State Gamecocks offense started the year off in disappointing fashion. They underachieved for a bit before they settled on Tyler Huff as the starting quarterback. Huff's dual threat ability really helped this team go to the next level throughout the season.

Huff was injured last week against Western Kentucky. He has a leg/ankle injury and is questionable for this game. If Huff does play he should be less than 100%. He has less than a week to recover before this Friday night contest.

Western Kentucky doesn't have much of a running game. That should put a lot of pressure on Veltkamp to be great here. I think the Jacksonville State pass rush can get to Veltkamp some in this game. 

These two defenses both do a really good job of preventing plays. They are both top 30 in the country in explosiveness allowed. Both defenses have done a great job bending but not breaking and being strong in the red zone.

This total is set pretty high for question marks surrounding the most important player on the Gamecocks offense. Western Kentucky has been inconsistent offensively this year as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* A rare noon eastern start time during the week here. Lipscomb has really impressed me this year. I think the Bison can have a very good season. Lipscomb has really turned up the defense this year. The Bison are 91st in  the country in defensive efficiency so far this year. Lipscomb is 78th in shot selection allowed. Lipscomb is also first in the country in free throw rate allowed. The Bison do an excellent job defending without fouling.

Southeast Missouri State is a much weaker team. They are 329th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 351st in the country in shot selection. They have improved to be about an average defense so far this year. Southeast Missouri State often struggles with putting the opposition on the line too much, but Lipscomb is bottom 15 in the country in free throw attempts/field goal attempts.

An early start time and a projected blowout in favor of Lipscomb should help the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates have been an under machine this year. Seton Hall lost their top scorers from a year ago and they are clearly struggling badly on offense. They are 320th in offensive efficiency in the country. Seton Hall hasn't scored more than 63 points in regulation in any of their first eight games of the season. 

NJIT is dreadful on offense. They are 341st in shot selection in the country. They haven't played a defense as good as Seton Hall yet this year. NJIT has been held to 57 points or fewer four times already this year. 

These teams are 311th and 358th in tempo. This game should be played at a snail's pace. 

Seton Hall should get the lead and control the pace here. They might top 63 points here, but I think they'll hold NJIT to a very low number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rider Broncs have been a really good under team this year. Rider is taking some terrible shots on a consistent basis. Rider is 353rd in shot selection in the country. The Broncs are bottom 15 in the country in shot quality on offense. The Rider defense is actually pretty good. They are 148th in shot selection allowed. Rider is good at defending without fouling.

Fairfield has changed up the way they play. The Stags is short on playmakers on offense. They are 351st in effective field goal percentage offense. Fairfield is playing to try to win lower scoring contests. They are 274th in overall tempo.

Rider is 348th in average possession length. The Broncs also waste a lot of possessions with turnovers.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are 359th in average offensive possession length. Coastal Carolina is stalling in a big way on offense. They are a big team and they are looking to turn these games into halfcourt battles. Coastal is 292nd in shot selection this year, so they are struggling to get good looks. They are good on defense though. Coastal is 22nd in effective field goal percentage defense.

Campbell is 247th in overall tempo, so the Fighting Camels don't move very quickly either. It's only fitting I guess. Campbell is a team that virtually never gets second chances, but they are great on the defensive glass.

Five of Coastal Carolina's seven contests have been 128 points or lower. I think this one stays low scoring too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Duquesne Dukes rank 108th in shot selection in the country. Duquesne is attacking the rim and getting to the free throw line more than the average team. The Dukes should live at the line against a St. Peter's team that ranks among the ten most foul happy teams in the country. They have been among the 25 most foul happy teams in the country for three straight years. Duquesne's shooting numbers should positively regress toward the mean. 

St. Peter's does two things on offense. They look to shoot the 3 point jumper, and they attack the offensive boards and get fouled a bunch. Duquesne is terrible at defending the 3 point shot. The Dukes are also a team that fouls a bunch. 

Duquesne has played four games at neutral sites and that typically lowers the shooting percentages. This is an ultra low total, and the Dukes want to push the pace when they can.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lipscomb Bison are 89th in shot selection allowed. They are also first in the country in free throw rate allowed. It is very hard to get to the line against Lipscomb. This team is much improved defensively. Lipscomb has also slowed their pace down quite a bit from a year ago.

Chattanooga gets to the line quite a bit and shoots free throws well. I just don't think they can rely on those trips to the line as much against Lipscomb. Chattanooga's last three Division I opponents have all ranked in the top 30 in tempo, so their recent scores are inflated. 

These two teams met last year and the final total was 150, and Lipscomb has been much slower and much improved defensively this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers offense has been much improved of late. Bryce Young is playing decent football. The Kansas City defense is very good, and Young played well against them a week ago. Chuba Hubbard has turned into a really solid running back. The Panthers pass catchers have also gotten a bit healthier.

The Tampa Bay Bucs are fifth in the NFL in yards per play. I really like the offensive scheme they are running with Coen. Baker Mayfield is playing well and with Mike Evans healthy they have one of the top playmakers at wide receiver in the league.

Tampa Bay has a history of some very high scoring games. Five of their last seven games have gone to 54 points or higher total. 

These are two bottom six or seven defenses in the NFL.

The referee crew in this one has been 24-17 to the over. The weather for this game is good with a temperature in the mid 40's and almost no wind.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers defense isn't a bad defense, but they are certainly not the dominant defense they have looked like in the stats earlier in the season. They had a run of tremendous luck of facing weak quarterbacks and backup quarterbacks for a long time. The Bengals and Ravens both moved the ball easily on the Chargers. 

I'm not saying the Falcons are on par with the Ravens or Bengals offense, but the Falcons do have a lot of good skill position talent. They are playing on the fast track here. I think they can make some things happen.

The Chargers offense has gotten more pass heavy of late. Justin Herbert is fully healthy and with Dobbins injured the Chargers are likely to throw it even more. The Falcons are dead last in the NFL in sacks. I see Herbert having a lot of time to throw the ball down the field here. The Falcons have a below average defense on the whole.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kent State has been able to slow the pace down against everyone this year. Kent State got Auburn to play at just 63 possessions. Kent State pulled Louisiana and UC Irvine into slower paced games as well.

Kent State has major offensive problems. They are outside the top 250 in effective field goal percentage offense. They just don't have a go to guy on offense. Kent State is excellent on defense though. The Golden Flashes contest shots well and they are good on the defensive boards.

Kennesaw State is a fast paced team, but they aren't as fast as a year ago. I think their totals are being inflated a bit. They are taller this year, and their length has helped their defense a lot.

This neutral court has been tough on shooters thus far.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams rank in the top 28 in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Lanier has this Rice team improving dramatically on defense from what they have been in recent seasons. The Owls have slowed the pace down as well. 

These two teams have done a great job slowing teams down from beyond the three point line, and both of these teams do take a lot of long range jumpers. I see this helping the under, especially with this game being played in a neutral court in Nassau.

I think this total is too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers gained 8.2 yards per play and put up 39 points on Florida Atlantic last week. Charlotte has a new coach, and they were more aggressive offensively in that game. 

UAB scored 40 points in a 40-14 win over Rice last week. UAB is 32nd in the nation in tempo. The Blazers have had a lot of points in most of their games by one team or the other. In fact, every UAB game this year has had one team with at least 31 points. In six of their last eight games, one of the teams involved has hit at least 40 points.

UAB has actually hit some more big plays with Kitna at quarterback. The Charlotte defense has allowed 33 plays of 30 or more yards this year.

Charlotte is first in the nation in explosiveness on offense. They are likely to hit a few big gainers here. They have 58 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. 

Both offenses have been bothered by strong defensive lines that cause havoc in the backfield. Both of these defenses rank in the bottom 15 in the country in havoc created, so the quarterbacks should have time.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers are 348th in average possession length in the country. They are doing a great job slowing the pace down. App State was second in the country at defending without fouling last year, and they are third this year in that same statistic. That's important because UNC Wilmington has relied on getting to the line to be efficient on offense this year.

UNC Wilmington scored just 59 points on Colgate and 69 on Sam Houston the last couple years. They are without their top two scoring options from a year ago. UNC Wilmington has slowed their pace down a lot in recent games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are 121st and 122nd in pace of play. There shouldn't be very many possessions in this game. 

Miami is first in the MAC in yards per play allowed. Salopek is the leader of a really good Miami Redhawks defense. 

Bowling Green is likely to load up the box and try to make Gabbert and Miami's offense to beat them through the air. Miami's wide receivers have loads of drops this year, and Gabbert has struggled for much of the season.

These two teams are 63rd and 66th in the country in explosiveness on offense. I don't think there will be many big plays.

Fannin Jr. is banged up and is questionable here. He will likely play for Bowling Green, but him at less than 100% certainly slows this offense.

The wind here is forecast to be 18 mph sustained with gusts to 25 mph. This is a stadium where the wind tunnels and it should change the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini are first in the country in shot selection allowed. This is a good defense that is forcing opponents into difficult looks. Arkansas is 63rd in that same metric.

Arkansas is 7th in defensive efficiency overall. Illinois is 17th. These two teams are 32nd and 83rd in offensive efficiency.

There's no doubt the pace will be quick in this game, but I like the defenses to make things tough enough on the opposing offense to keep the game under this high total. 

Both teams are top 17 in the country in defending without fouling. 

This is a neutral court game which is a plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions are averaging 37.6 points per game at home this year. Detroit is is averaging 48.6 points per game in their last three home games. Jared Goff is surrounded by a plethora of weapons. The Lions are a great offense, especially when they are home on the fast track in Detroit. 

Chicago's defense ranks last in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. The Bears defense is no better than mediocre, and of late they have looked worse than that. Chicago's offense has shown signs of improvement in the last couple games. They did make some coaching changes. The Bears did put up 391 yards on Green Bay two weeks ago and 398 yards and 27 points last week against the Vikings.

Detroit wants to put on a show for Thanksgiving viewers. The Lions are likely to put up a pretty big number. I think Chicago can do enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Richmond Spiders have played five straight games under this total. Richmond has seen all but one of those games finish with 127 points or fewer in regulation. The Spiders are 276th in average possession length, so they are clearly looking to slow the game down. Richmond shoots it poorly from 3 point range, and they get virtually no second chance points.

Ball State's offense has struggled of late. They were held to 59 points at home by Detroit. They put up just 63 against Eastern Kentucky. The Cardinals rely on getting to the free throw line. In the past three full seasons Richmond has been top 50 in defending without fouling.

This is a neutral court game which is a positive.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This version of the Charleston Cougars is a whole lot different than last year's version. Chris Mack is the new head coach. He doesn't have this team pushing the pace nearly as much as Pat Kelsey did. Charleston is 251st in shot selection this year so far as well. They aren't getting very good shots.

Northern Kentucky is 255th in overall tempo. Northern Kentucky is 345th in the nation in shot selection. Every Division One game of Northern Kentucky has finished with 136 total points or fewer. Northern Kentucky has consistently been a good defense under Coach Horn. They mix in zone defenses and zone pressure to actually slow the game down.

I think this line is too high based on Charleston's history from the past couple seasons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have played three Division One opponents this year. All three of them rank 75th or faster in tempo so far this season. Now, LA Tech plays a Richmond team that is 254th in average possession length. Richmond is back to playing very slowly.

Richmond scored just 67 points against Florida Tech last game. Richmond could score only 48 against Charlotte. They had just 61 points in regulation against Bucknell. The Spiders get virtually no second chance points.

LA Tech is 46th in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a really good defensive team. They can sometimes struggle on the defensive glass, but Richmond isn't the team that generally takes advantage of that weakness.

This is a neutral site game where unders have had the edge in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SE Louisiana Lions are 299th in offensive efficiency. This is a team that really struggles to get open looks. They don't get to the free throw line much, and they don't get many second chance points either. 

Gardner Webb turns it over too much on offense. They are learning a new offense under a new head coach. Gardner Webb has faced the 15th toughest slate of offenses so far this year, and overall I've liked what I've seen from their defense. This team is focusing on defense first this season.

This is an early season tournament on a neutral floor (Hard Rock Riviera) that has been good for under bettors in the past. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans are 314th in average possession length in the country. Long Beach State is 338th in average possession length. These are two very slow paced teams. I would expect this game to be played in the halfcourt. 

UNC Greensboro is 318th in the nation in shot selection. Long Beach State is 350th in the nation in shot selection (that is bottom 3%). These two teams settle for a lot of bad looks. Their defenses hold opponents to 80th in shot selection and 159th. The defenses are stronger than the offenses for both teams.

This is a late night game in Las Vegas at a neutral site. I think this has the potential to be a very ugly contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Hampshire Wildcats have completely changed their style of play. They have slowed down drastically from last year. They started this year looking pretty fast paced again, but they have slowed things down a bunch in their last few games. Nathan Davis' team just doesn't have enough offensive weapons. New Hampshire was 20th in average possession length last year, and they are 267th in average possession length this year. 

Trey Woodyard is one of the most important players to this New Hampshire team, and he has missed the last three games. They have slowed things down even more without him.

Columbia is playing a bit slower this year, and they are playing much better defense. They are 80th in shot selection allowed after being outside the top 200 last year. Columbia has been held to 58 points or fewer in four of their last six against Division One opponents.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons are bottom 20 in the nation in tempo. Drexel almost never gets to the free throw line so they are reliant on shooting it well from the floor. The Dragons lost both Amari Williams and Justin Moore from last year's team, and they were two of their key guys.

Fort Wayne has played mainly above average tempo teams, and Drexel is easily the slowest pace team they have played so far this year. The Mastadons are great at the free throw line, but Drexel has been elite at defending without fouling in the last few seasons. Fort Wayne sometimes has problems with fouling too much on defense, but as mentioned before Drexel very rarely gets to the charity stripe.

An early site neutral game that tips off early in the afternoon.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins offense is improving week by week with Tua back and Hill getting a bit healthier. The Dolphins are explosive and this Patriots defense is still a bottom ten unit in the NFL. The Patriots defense isn't innovative and their coverages are too easy to read for the best offenses. 

The New England Patriots offense is definitely moving the ball much better with Drake Maye. Maye has shown several good signs of being a good long term option under center. The Dolphins defense is a mediocre unit.

I see this as a game where the Dolphins have potential to score a bunch, and the Patriots should be able to do enough in a game script where they are playing catchup and throwing it around.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Texans have Nico Collins back, and he makes a world of difference for C.J. Stroud and this Texans offense. Collins is the game changer on the outside that opens everything else up for Houston. 

The Titans offense has certainly been better of late. They are averaging 5.5 yards per play in their last three games, which is above the league average during that time. Will Levis has been a bit better since returning from injury.

The Titans defense is poor at getting off the field on key plays, and I like the Texans ability to make them pay once they get into the red zone. Stroud is a good decision maker.

This one is played on the fast track with a very low total. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a very rare 10:30 am eastern start time. For Portland, this is a 7:30 am body clock start time. They have had several days here to get used to the time change, but this is a very early start time for everyone here. The earliest of starts have trended a bit under the total long term. 

Early season neutral site games have gone under the total at a good rate over the last 15 years as well. This is a high total with an early start on a neutral floor.

Portland has slowed their pace down quite a bit this year. Princeton is a good defensive rebounding team and a team that does a good job defending without fouling.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma defense has been superb this year. They are 13th in success rate allowed. They are first in the SEC in yards per carry allowed and 2nd in the SEC in yards per play allowed. The Oklahoma team this year has disappointed, but it definitely hasn't been the fault of the defense.

Alabama is bottom 30 in the country in offensive line yards. The Crimson Tide offensive line has really struggled in run blocking this year. Jalen Milroe is excellent and he has made some things happen even with that poor offensive line play. In general though, Alabama has been better in the passing game.

Oklahoma will be up against an underrated Alabama defense. They are 14th in success rate allowed on defense. Oklahoma is averaging a miserable 2.49 yards per carry on offense. I don't think they'll be able to run the ball here.

The weather could play a major role here. There are expected to be sustained winds of 17 mph and gusts to 30 mph during this game. In general that leads to more running and I think both run defenses have the advantage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders have a good quarterback in Vattiato. The problem this year has been the offensive line is really bad in pass blocking and he hasn't had enough time to throw. When he has time to throw, he is a solid quarterback. New Mexico State ranks 119th in pass rushing grade at PFF and they have just 13 sacks all season. I think the MTSU passing game is going to look better in this game.

New Mexico State does have a good rushing attack. They are 38th in offensive line yards and 43rd in rushing play success rate. MTSU is 122nd in rushing play success rate allowed. Liberty just ran for more than 330 yards on them. LA Tech rolled up 551 yards of offense against MTSU. The Blue Raiders defense is a bottom ten unit in the country.

There are two bottom 15 defenses in the country in this contest. These offenses have been inconsistent, but I think the defenses are bad enough that the offenses can get it going some here. Also, this game means little to the teams with no chances of a bowl berth. That lends itself to higher scoring games on the whole.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Michigan State Spartans meet on Friday night in East Lansing. Purdue is having a very forgettable season. Michigan State has been inconsistent, but they have shown promising signs under Coach Smith.

Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo. Purdue is 108th in tempo out of 134 teams despite being far behind in most of their games. The Boilermakers have slowed their tempo down even more in Big Ten play. 

Michigan State is 120th in the country in tempo. The Spartans offensive line has struggled this season. They are 114th in offensive line yards and 117th in yards per carry. Michigan State is 121st in offensive explosiveness, so they haven't gotten many big plays.

Purdue has a decent running game, but the strength of the Michigan State defense is their ability to slow down the run. They are 24th in defensive line yards and 30th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

The weather here calls for sustained winds in the 16-17 mph range with gusts in the low 20's. There is also a chance for a passing shower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets are definitely a great offensive team. Toledo has put up some big numbers this year. That's why this total has been adjusted so far up. I think the total has been moved too far up now though.

Toledo is now going to play the slowest paced team they have played all year. The second slowest team they played was Detroit and that game played to 149 points. Toledo has played two defenses with a defensive efficiency rank of 300th or worse in the country in the last two games. Jacksonville State is 184th and they are 124th in effective field goal percentage defense.

Jacksonville State and Toledo have both been elite at defending without fouling in recent years. They are both also above average getting defensive rebounds.

This is a neutral site game and those have trended strongly to the under in college hoops in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have had one of the biggest tempo changes in the country this year. Coastal Carolina brought in Justin Gray and they have gone all the way down to 361st in average possession length on offense. That is slower than Virginia and Air Force. This is a Coastal Carolina team that has played 3 of their 4 games to a combined total score of 124 points or lower. 

IU Indianapolis has been a terrible offense the last couple years. This year doesn't appear to be much different. They are shooting 37% on two point shots which is bottom ten in the country. They are 331st in average possession length too, so this game should be played at a very slow pace.

This is a neutral site game and those have trended strongly to the under in college hoops in the last 15 years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia is hosting the first of an annual tournament that will be played here early each season. This is obviously a neutral site contest where both teams aren't familiar with the shooting backdrop. Early season neutral games have gone under at a high rate in the past 15 years in college hoops. That has been an even stronger angle when the total is set at a high number like this one.

Pitt improved their defense a lot last year, and in the offseason this Panthers team added a lot of height and shot blockers. Pitt is 15th in defensive efficiency in the country so far this year. 

LSU has played three straight games that have finished at 145 points or fewer. The Tigers have been reliant on offensive rebounds in the last couple years, and Pitt is an excellent defensive rebounding team. 

Pitt has played some very weak defenses this year and with the neutral floor and a decent LSU defense this is a bigger test for the Panthers offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wright State Raiders have a new coach this year. Scott Nagy was a guy who wanted to push the pace in a big way, but Clint Sargent has slowed the team down a good amount. Wright State was 25th in average possession length last year. They are 147th so far this year. Wright State ranks 329th in the country in shot selection according to Shot Quality. The Raiders aren't getting to the line much at all, and they don't get offensive rebounds.

Princeton has been historically a below average tempo team. They have played faster this year, but they have some relatively quick teams. Princeton is 196th in shot selection in the country. The Tigers are very poor on the offensive boards, but they are great on the defensive glass.

This is a neutral site game early in the season with a high total. A total this high with very few second chance opportunities- I have to play it toward the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates were 321st and 288th in effective field goal percentage offense the last two years. East Carolina has relied on a ridiculously high free throw rate and very high offensive rebounding rate to be successful on offense early this year. They aren't likely to keep getting 40 and 32 free throws by themselves. I think this is still a team that will struggle to score in the halfcourt.

Jacksonville State has been top 40 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage the last three seasons. The Gamecocks are an above average defense, but they don't have many  go to scoring options.

Both of these teams play much slower than the average team. I think this has the potential to be a rock fight. This game is played at Ocean Center (neutral court) where unders have had value in the past.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early start on a neutral floor in South Carolina. There won't be many fans at this game. These early season neutral site games have trended strongly toward the under in the last 15 years in college hoops.

Ohio has allowed opponents to shoot 53.3% from 3 point range so far this season. That will obviously regress toward the mean. Ohio is a mediocre defensive team that happens to be playing against a Middle Tennessee State team that has struggled shooting it from long range the last few seasons.

MTSU has struggled with offensive efficiency the last few seasons because of their poor shooting numbers and high turnover percentage. MTSU is known for solid defense though.

Ohio has played some good offenses this year and that has inflated this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is not a comfortable bet. A bet on an under in an Alabama game isn't something I really want to do, but the number has gotten up to a point where I have to take it.

This is a neutral site game. Neutral site unders have done very well in college hoops in general in the last decade. The neutral site unders with very high totals have done even better toward the under.

Alabama is a great offense that flies tempo wise. I feel like that is absolutely baked into this total. The question is what will Illinois do with the pace here. If Illinois is wise they will try to slow the game down some and win with defense.

Illinois has a pretty clear height advantage here. Coach Underwood said this will be a good defensive team, and so far they have been improved on defense. Illinois is less efficient on offense than a year ago.

A 87-80 game is an under here with this high of a number. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets host the Ohio Bobcats on Wednesday night in Toledo. 

Ohio has the second ranked defense in the MAC. The Bobcats are giving up just 3.06 yards per carry in MAC play. Ohio is 20th in rushing play success rate allowed on defense. The Bobcats defense has been in great form of late. They have allowed a total of 26 points in their last three games combined.

Toledo is 37th nationally in rushing play success rate allowed. They are good at getting teams behind the chains with their aggressive front seven. Ohio is just 103rd in offensive explosiveness. The Bobcats are reliant on slowly moving the ball down the field. Ohio is 108th out of 134 teams in the country in tempo.

The two offensive lines here are subpar, and I think the defensive fronts can do a good job slowing down the run game. 

The weather here calls for 20 mph winds with gusts pushing 30 mph with rain showers expected. This kind of weather definitely changes the game and should make the teams more conservative on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins play at a very slow pace under Coach Mincy. Jacksonville is known for their defensive intensity and their ability to slow the game down. Jacksonville has played three opponents who want to run. The Dolphins now face a Virginia Tech Hokies team that is the slowest paced team they have faced so far this year.

Virginia Tech has slowed their tempo down quite a bit from last year. The Hokies took advantage of terrible defenses in Delaware State and USC Upstate, but their offense has looked shaky against Winthrop and Penn State.

Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot, and I expect a lot of turnovers leading to empty possessions and wasted time on the clock.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons lost Amari Williams to Kentucky and Justin Moore to Loyola Chicago. The Dragons offense takes a step back this season. They have slowed down their pace of play even more in the early season without Moore pushing the pace too.

Fairfield lost Jalen Leach to Northwestern, and Leach was their highest rating offensive player. The Stags have played drastically slower so far this year. Fairfield has yet to score more than 62 points in a game against a Division I opponent this year.

Neither of these teams attack the hoop much to get to the free throw line. Both have a history of being good on the defensive glass as well.

I had this one down in the low 130's. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts are a team I like to play unders with for a few reasons. First, they are good at controlling the pace of the game. They also are great at defending without fouling. In the last few years, Vermont has been excellent on the defensive boards as well. Vermont has played all four games under this total this year. Three of the four have been a total of 129 points or fewer.

Buffalo has  played a lot of teams who push the pace so far this year. Vermont is the first team they have seen that is defense first and a slow tempo team. The Bulls don't foul much, and they struggle on the offensive end as far as efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills offense is a shell of its former self when it comes to weapons on the outside. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman are both out here. Amari Cooper is questionable. They have already been without a star wide receiver, but now they are really thin. 

The Kansas City Chiefs are also without their star receiver Rashee Rice. Kansas City is 19th in yards per play on offense this year. Patrick Mahomes is fantastic, but without Rice and Pacheco he has been limited in his ability to create big plays. 

Both Kansas City and Buffalo play at a slower pace than the average NFL team. 

Kansas City's defense is excellent. They should be able to keep the Bills in front of them and limit the big plays. The Buffalo defense has been really good against the run in the last few weeks, and they seem to be trending in the right direction.

This is a matchup of two great quarterbacks, but I think the injuries at the key skill position spots are going to help the defenses have the advantage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas offense has come on in a big way the last few games. Kansas is now first in the Big 12 in yards per play because of their great showings the last few weeks. Kansas put up 8.6 yards per play and 42 points on a good Houston defense. They just torched a good Iowa State team for 536 yards and 45 points. Jalon Daniels is taking shots down the field, and the Jayhawks offensive line is dominating in the trenches. 

BYU is just 88th in yards per carry allowed. They are 82nd in rushing play success rate allowed. I think Kansas can have a big day on the ground here. 

The Kansas defense is still a major weakness. Kansas is 116th in defensive line yards. BYU has improved running the football and will do damage here. Retzlaff is good for a couple big plays through the air too. Kansas is 9th in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed.

I expect a tight back and forth contest here. There is even a possibility of overtime with a spread this close and BYU's propensity for playing close games.

The two offenses are both better than the defenses here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs have played eight games against FBS opponents this season. Five of those eight games have finished with 45 combined points or fewer. Most of their lowest scoring games have been against the best teams they have played (Ole Miss, Texas, Clemson) with only the Alabama game being high scoring. 

Georgia's rushing attack has been very weak this year. Tennessee's front seven on defense is arguably the best in the country. The Bulldogs are going to have to throw the ball. I don't trust Carson Beck to do a good job moving it down the field with a lot of pressure in his face.

The Tennessee offense is only averaging 24.5 points per game in the SEC. They are 10th in yards per play in the SEC. The Volunteers have played six straight games that have stayed under this total! 

Nico Iamaleava is banged up and is questionable to play in this one. Even if he plays he'll likely be less than 100 percent. The passing game hasn't been working, and I think Kirby Smart will scheme up his defense to stop the run here and try to make Tennessee throw the football.

I like the defenses to have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd have impressed on the offensive line. They are 23rd in offensive line yards this year. Marshall is 11th in the nation in yards per carry. That should be a problem for Coastal Carolina. Coastal Carolina is 120th in defensive line yards. They are 114th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

Coastal Carolina's offense has been pretty good this season. The Chanticleers are 51st in the country in yards per play. They are 20th in offensive explosiveness, and Marshall has given up a decent amount of big plays this year. 

Marshall has played some of the lower scoring and slower paced teams in the Sun Belt. Marshall has recent wins over UL Monroe and Southern Miss for example. Marshall did get in a high scoring shootout against App State earlier in the year.

Both of these teams play at a pace that is a little faster than average. I think this total is a few points too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal State Fullerton Titans don't have the point guards this year to push the pace like they have some of the years in the past. Fullerton is going to try to play through the frontcourt and slow things down. 

Cal State Fullerton put up 53 points on Stanford and 53 points on Colorado in their last two games. Oregon State plays slower than either of those two teams. I think Fullerton could have a hard time getting past 55 or 56 here.

Oregon State has been bottom 50 in the country in tempo in each of the last two seasons. The Beavers haven't given up more than 58 points in a game this season. Oregon State is a hard nosed team who should do a good job keeping Fullerton off the offensive boards here.

I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies have played eight games against FBS opponents so far this year. Five of those eight games have finished with a combined total of 43 points or fewer. 

Northern Illinois is coming off a high scoring game against Western Michigan, and I think that has given us a little extra value to the under in this game. Western Michigan has forced all of these MAC games to be high scoring. Northern Illinois now plays Akron, who has played in some low scoring games and some high scoring games.

The weather here should matter too. The forecast calls for steady rain and winds of 12 mph with gusts to 17 mph. That should make the coaching staffs a bit more conservative. That tends to lead to tighter games that stay under the number.

Akron is a respectable 54th in defensive line yards. N. Illinois isn't very good in the passing game, and the Huskies are 113th in explosiveness on offense. N. Illinois is 12th in the MAC in yards per play.

Akron is 116th in offensive line yards and should struggle to run the ball much here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers have more shooters to spread the floor out and knock down long range jumpers than they did last season. Charlotte isn't going to play fast, but they are likely to be efficient on offense. They don't turn the ball over very much at all.

Richmond is pushing the pace some more this year. They lack interior shot blockers and Charlotte's big men should be able to do work down low also. Richmond always runs good offensive sets under Chris Mooney. The Spiders should be able to get some open looks with dribble drives and kick outs.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bellarmine Knights are known for their very slow pace. They have ranked in the bottom 50 (360 plus teams) in the country in tempo in each of the last 4 seasons. Bellarmine is bottom 15 in tempo so far this season. 

Southern Indiana was able to slow the pace down against Bucknell and Marshall in their last two games. 

These two are an interesting matchup because Southern Indiana is wildly inefficient from the floor in general on offense, but they are great at getting to the line. Bellarmine is excellent at not fouling.

Southern Indiana is decent defensively except for the fact that they foul like crazy. Bellarmine very rare gets to the line though.

I think this total is inflated by a few points. Both teams have faced teams who like to play fast so far this year. They are now playing another team who slows things down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Belmont Bruins and Lipscomb Bison are bitter rivals. Both schools are in Nashville, Tennessee. These two coaches know each other well. The players on both teams know each other very well. Only one of the last six meetings between these two teams has finished higher than 152 points total.

Lipscomb is playing slower this year because of their ability to play inside out. The Bison are excellent on the defensive glass. They are very good at not fouling as well.

Belmont lost their top three players from a year ago. The NIL era has really hit Casey Alexander's team hard. The Bruins are far less explosive on offense than they were the last couple years. Belmont doesn't attack the rim much and doesn't get to the line much at all. Unless they are red hot shooting from deep, I think their scoring numbers will be down.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Damon Stoudamire has always wanted his teams to play quickly. He hasn't always been able to do that because of the guard play on this teams. Stoudamire got a really nice pickup in the offseason. Javion McCollum from Oklahoma came in and he will be a leader for Georgia Tech. McCollum is a scorer who shot 89% and 94% from the FT line in the last two seasons. 

Georgia Tech is 23rd in the country in average possession length so far this year so they have been playing very fast. The Yellow Jackets have scored 85 and 93 points in their two games.

Texas Southern has more depth this year, and Johnny Jones prefers to play at a quick pace as well. Texas Southern has had major problems with committing far too many fouls the last few years. Georgia Tech has good free throw shooters who can take advantage. On offense, Texas Southern can get points in transition and on second chance opportunities.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have played five games in the MAC thus far. The total number of points scored in their five games in the MAC thus far: 87, 58, 89, 73, and 70 points. All five games have gone over this posted total. All but one of their games in the conference have hit at least 70 points. The fact that Western Michigan got into a shootout with a Northern Illinois team I consider a solid under team speaks volumes as to what they do to games.

Western Michigan is first in the MAC in yards per play at 7.01 yards per play. Bowling Green is 115th in defensive line yards. The Falcons have struggled to stop the run against the best rushing teams they have faced. 

Bowling Green had a low scoring game last week which has depressed this total some. That game was played in heavy winds against Central Michigan who was starting their third string quarterback in that game. Bowling Green has a lot of talent on offense. The Western Michigan defense is 124th in success rate allowed. Bowling Green has several key matchup advantages in this one.

Take the over. 

*Note- this one has moved a bit since I selected it, but I would still bet this for the same rating at 59 or lower. Thank you*

*3 Star Play Under* The Citadel was 299th in tempo last year. Stetson was 252nd. These two teams have a history of both trying to slow down the game. 

Stetson played a fast paced game against Nebraska Omaha last time out, but Omaha shot lights out early and Stetson had to speed up to have a chance later in the game. 

The Citadel isn't great defensively, but they are good on the defensive boards and good at defending without fouling.

Stetson lost a bunch of talent from last year's team that made a trip to the NCAA Tournament. 

This is a game that I believe will be played in the 68 or 69 possession range. That would require some impressive shooting numbers to get over a total set this high. 

With the line move higher here, I'm going to side with the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Derek Carr is back for this one. I'm not a huge fan of Carr on the whole, but he is a massive upgrade from what the Saints have had in the last few weeks. 

Kirk Cousins is playing well and this Atlanta offense is in a good position against a New Orleans defense that ranks bottom 3 in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Marshon Lattimore is gone now too. While he was often injured, he was extremely talented and they'll miss him in the secondary. 

Both of these teams rank in the top six in the NFL in tempo. This game is being played in a dome on the fast track. New Orleans has been a top ten offense with Carr playing this year. Atlanta is top eight in total offense.

The NFC South has been a division full of high scoring games against each other so far this year. NFC South games between teams inside the division are 7-0 to the over this year. Six of those seven games have gone over the total by more than a touchdown.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers offense has struggled against good defenses, but against the worst defenses they have played this year Tennessee has run up the score in a big way. Mississippi State is one of the very worst defenses in the country. Mississippi State is 129th out of 134 teams in the country in success rate allowed on defense. The Bulldogs are giving up a ridiculous 8.03 yards per play in SEC action. They allowed 41 points against Toledo. They allowed 58 points against Arkansas. They gave up 45 points to Florida. Tennessee should do a lot of damage here.

The Mississippi State offense has been better of late. Van Buren is doing a solid job at quarterback. The Bulldogs put up 31 points against Georgia recently. They also scored 24 on a good Texas A&M defense. While the Tennessee defense is very solid, I think the Volunteers letting up with a lead late could help Mississippi State put up quite a few points in the second half here.

These two teams both rank in the top eight in the country in tempo. There will be a lot of possessions in this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack offense is playing much better in recent weeks. Bailey has really started to play some good football at quarterback after he has gotten some more experience. NC State crushed Stanford by putting up 59 points on them last week. NC State averaged 8.5 yards per play in that contest. 

Duke put up 31 points in their loss to Miami last week. The NC State offense has improved, but this NC State defense has been very weak this year. The Wolfpack are 12th in ACC play in yards per play allowed. They have been especially bad against the run.

NC State had several very low scores right after Grayson McCall was injured. They had to get things together as an offense. They also played some teams who play very slowly and are under teams. Duke is top 25 in tempo. I think those low scores from earlier in the year are giving us value on the over here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Fresno State Bulldogs have a new coach in Vance Walberg. Walberg coached Pepperdine in 2007 and 2008. Pepperdine ranked in the top ten in tempo in both of those years. Both of those teams also ranked in the bottom 40 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Fresno State had a team red/white scrimmage the other day. They played just one half (20 minutes) and the score was 65-60. This teams is going to be pushing the pace to the extreme and putting up a lot of 3 pointers. 

Sacramento State has a new coach. While I don't necessarily expect them to try to play all that fast, they are weak on defense. They should be a bottom 100 defense this year. 

With one team pushing pace to the extreme and both teams being terrible at defense- I like the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are first in the nation in tempo. East Carolina is pushing the pace to the extreme. Katin Houser is a clear upgrade from Jake Garcia, and the offense has finally found its way of late. East Carolina has been piling up the points and giving up the points in bunches of late. Their last three games have finished at 79, 73, and 90 total points. 

Florida Atlantic's defense has fallen apart. They just gave up 44 points to USF who was without star quarterback Byrum Brown in that game. Florida Atlantic is playing at a faster than average pace, and they have been throwing the ball at a higher rate of late. Five games in a row against FBS opponents have finished at 58 combined points or more for Florida Atlantic. 

Both teams rank in the top 25 in explosiveness on offense. Both teams rank in the bottom 40 in explosiveness allowed. The fast pace and big plays make me like the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first day of the college hoops season was all about the overs. I don't overreact to any one day, but the number of fouls called and the average tempo in day one games stood out as something to monitor very closely. The over was 75-38 in day one. There were a bunch of games that sailed far above their posted total.

FIU always wants to use a full court press and push the pace with Coach Jeremy Ballard at the top of the program. FIU struggles to grab defensive rebounds though and opponents were crushing them with second chance points last year. FIU still gets plenty of run out chances from their live ball turnovers.

Rice has a new coach in Rob Lanier. His teams have played pretty fast in the past, and he said he wants this Rice team to push the pace. They will take some time to develop defensively, and they lack the length all over the floor that he really wants to see.

I think Rice gets a lot of second chances here, but they turn it over a lot as well. A fast paced game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* If this were a game played between these two teams a year ago, I think this line would make a lot of sense. I don't think a game played between these two should be set this high.

Indiana State lost Robbie Avila the star leading the way, and they lost their superstar coach Josh Schertz. The Sycamores new coach says they will play relatively quickly, but there's no way they can match their offensive numbers from a year ago. 

Florida Atlantic lost Dusty May to Michigan, and they lost most of their top talent as well. The Owls will play pretty quickly, but I don't expect to see any great efficiency on offense from them.

This is a neutral site game in Xenia, Ohio at a new gym. These early neutral site games have trended strongly to the under in the last decade in college hoops.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns are a completely different team with Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback. I consider him a clear upgrade from Deshaun Watson. He's also definitely a better option if you are looking for points in a game overall. Winston is going to take chances down the field. He's also going to throw some bad picks now and then. It could mean more points for the Browns or the other team.

The Chargers have had a bunch of low scoring games, but they have played some really bad offenses. The Browns with Winston are a step up from what they have been playing. Additionally, the Chargers are now becoming more aggressive on offense since Justin Herbert is healthy once again.

The oddsmakers have adjusted this total up some, but I don't think they have adjusted it enough. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Ravens have the best offense in the NFL. In fact, this team is ranked in the top five in the last 20 years in yards per play through this many games. Lamar Jackson is playing some great football. Derrick Henry has been an amazing match for the Ravens offensive scheme too. They now have better pass catchers than they have had in recent seasons.

Baltimore's defense has been a bottom ten unit in the NFL. The secondary is giving up far too many big plays and committing too many big penalties. 

The Denver defense is pretty good, but I don't think they are nearly as good as their numbers look. Denver has faced Spencer Rattler and Bryce Young in the last two weeks. Those quarterbacks make a defense look really good. This is easily the best offense they have had to go against.

Bo Nix has done a really good job in this offense. The Broncos play calling has been great to build around Nix's strengths.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes are definitely better on offense this year than they have been the last couple seasons. I know McNamara is out for this game, but I think Brendan Sullivan is better than McNamara. The market has hit this total downward with McNamara out, but I consider it a plus that Sullivan is starting at quarterback here. Sullivan gives them some ability to run at the quarterback position as well.

Wisconsin's offense is 4th in the Big Ten in yards per play at 6.21. The Badgers struggled against Penn State, but the Penn State defense is better than Iowa's defense this year. Iowa is just sixth in the Big Ten in yards per play allowed. The Hawkeyes defense isn't bad by any means, they just aren't nearly as dominant as they were before.

Wisconsin is 86th in YPC allowed. Iowa is 12th in YPC. The Hawkeyes should get quite a bit of work done on the ground here.

I think this total is set like Iowa's totals were last year, and this Iowa team is definitely different than last year's team.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks offense looked amazing against the Mississippi State Bulldogs horrible defense yesterday. Now, they go up against an Ole Miss defense that is first in the nation in success rate allowed.

Ole Miss is easily first in the nation in tackles for a loss, and the Arkansas offensive line is 92nd in havoc allowed. Ole Miss should be in the backfield a bunch in this one. Arkansas wants to run the ball a lot, but Ole Miss is first in the nation in yards per carry allowed and first in the nation in defensive line yards.

The Ole Miss offense hasn't topped 27 points in their last four games. The Rebels are inconsistent on offense. They are just sixth in the SEC in yards per play on offense.

I think this number is too high. The oddsmakers aren't giving the Ole Miss defense enough credit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack offense has been playing much better of late. Bailey is throwing the football well. NC State is up to 26th in the nation in passing play success rate on offense. NC State isn't a great offense, but they have been decent in recent weeks and I think the market is underrating them.

Ashton Daniels missed quite a bit of time, and the Stanford offense was much worse when he was out. He was back last week and is expected to play here. Daniels does the turn the ball over quite a bit, but he allows the offense to have some dual threat ability. Stanford has excellent wide receivers who will be a mismatch for the NC State secondary.

These are two bad defenses. NC State is 92nd in the nation in yards per play. They are 103rd in success rate allowed. NC State is 102nd in pass play success rate allowed.

Stanford is terrible against the pass. The Cardinal are 124th in QBR allowed. They are 115th in yards per play allowed. 

This total is set too low for a game with two poor defenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder have length and athleticism all over the place on the court. So far this season, the Thunder are easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma City is allowing a little less than 95 points per game so far this season. 

The Portland defense is league average so far this year, which is a clear improvement from a year ago. 

Portland's offense is bottom five or so in the NBA. The Blazers just don't have very many efficient scorers. I think Portland will try to slow the pace of this game down a bit. 

Oklahoma City is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency, but they are only 23rd in offensive efficiency. 

Divisional games early in the season have been strong to the under in the NBA in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'm not sure that oddsmakers have caught up with how fast the Chicago Bulls are playing. They are playing more than 3 possessions per game faster than the second fastest paced team in the NBA. 

The Bulls also happen to have a terrible defense. Chicago is 28th in transition rate allowed, so the Magic should get plenty of run out chances here. The Bulls are bottom five in the NBA in rim rate allowed. Orlando was first last year in the NBA in rim rate. The Magic are going to get to the hoop and have plenty of close looks.

Chicago is putting up a lot of three pointers and Orlando is 23rd in the NBA in 3 point defense. The Bulls have plenty of paths to scoring too.

The fast pace is helped by officials who have trended toward the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees have scored only 7 runs in this three game series thus far. The Yankees have picked a bad time to go cold at the plate. The Dodgers have won the last two games by a score of 4-2. 

Luis Gil will start for the Yankees here. Gil has good stuff, but he does sometimes struggle with his control. He'll be helped by the home plate umpire in this one.

The Dodgers will go with a bullpen game here. They have some key guys who are well rested.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire in this one. Eddings may be the single best under umpire in baseball. He consistently has a ridiculously high strikes called and strikeout/walk ratio. He is an extremely pitcher friendly umpire.

The temperature in the upper 50's with a light breeze blowing sideways should make the ball not carry very well here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Early in the season the divisional games in the NBA have gone under the total at a high rate in the last decade. This is a divisional matchup between teams who know each other very well. In fact, they played each other in their last game two days ago. The final score in that one was 109-106. The pace was very slow (95.5 possessions) and both teams shot the ball above average, but it still stayed under this total.

The last four meetings between these two teams have been: 175 points, 215 points, 204 points, and 215 points. All four under this total.

Both of these teams have started this season out playing at a slower pace on average than they did a year ago. They are tied for 21st in the NBA in tempo.

I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* There's a good chance D.K. Metcalf will miss this game with an injury. He's a game changer at wide receiver and Geno Smith and company have a much lower upside on offense if he is less than 100 percent or misses this game.

I liked what I saw from the Seattle defense last week against Atlanta. Seattle is getting healthier on defense and they have a defensive-minded head coach who should do a good job game planning here.

The weather here is key as well. Sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts up to 22 mph with rain throughout the day expected. The combination of wind and rain is very good for under bettors. It should make the game plans on offense more conservative.

The Buffalo Bills have been running the football quite a bit already. The Bills defense has been playing quite a bit better of late. Seattle is inconsistent on offense. Smith has been far better in domes and now he is out in the elements. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints offense will get Chris Olave and Taysom Hill back for this game. It's hard to overstate how much that helps this offense that has struggled of late. Those guys are the key playmakers for this team. 

The LA Chargers are throwing the ball more now that Justin Herbert is getting much healthier. The Chargers only scored 15 points because of some fluke things in their last game, but they put up 6.2 yards per play against the Cardinals.

The New Orleans defense is dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Saints have given up 84 points in their last two games. 

The Chargers defense has trended worse in recent weeks. 

A total set this low with a mediocre defense and a terrible defense makes very little sense. It is on a fast track with no bad weather to worry about. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Jameis Winston is the new quarterback for the Cleveland Browns. I consider Winston a significant upgrade from DTR and a clear upgrade from Watson as well. Winston is a guy who is willing to take shots down the field. Winston is an 'over' type quarterback too. He can get big plays for his team and he can throw pick sixes as well. 

The Ravens defense has given up the most explosive passing plays of any team in the NFL. They may now be without star Marlon Humphrey as well. Baltimore's defense is 23rd in the NFL in yards per play allowed.

Baltimore's offense is the best offense in the NFL. The Ravens are so well balanced. Lamar Jackson is playing great football, and Derrick Henry is healthy and running the ball really well. The Ravens are averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per play on offense which is easily first in the NFL.

The Cleveland defense is right in the middle of the pack in most defensive categories for the season. 

This total is set too low considering the changes at quarterback for the Browns and the elite offense from Baltimore.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots offense is clearly more capable under Drake Maye. He takes more chances down the field and is capable of keeping plays alive with his legs. Totals have to be adjusted upward some for the Patriots with Maye compared to Brissett. 

The New England defense that was expected to be decent this year has been bad. They are 25th in yards per play allowed in the NFL. The Patriots have allowed 41 points and 32 points in their last two games.

This is a get right spot for the New York Jets. They couldn't get it going much on offense against a good Steelers defense, but Aaron Rodgers and company should look a lot better on offense here. Davante Adams has to help the offense as a whole and I think we will see it some here.

The Jets defense has been middle of the pack in the last few games. 

A temperature in the mid 50's and just 7 mph winds is a good setup here too.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The BYU Cougars have a good secondary, but they are weak against the run. UCF is 2nd in the country in rushing play success rate. The Knights are 5th in offensive line yards. BYU is 77th in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 82nd in defensive line yards. UCF just ran for 354 yards and averaged 7.1 yards per play against a good Iowa State defense. I think UCF can have a big game on offense here too.

BYU is 42nd in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Cougars are 44th in QBR on offense. They have multiple good receivers, and the weakness of the UCF defense is definitely their secondary. I think Retzlaff and the BYU wide receivers can take advantage of that weakness. UCF is 99th in explosiveness allowed on defense. 

Both of these defenses have faced quite a few weak offenses. I believe both defenses are overrated right now. 

UCF pushes the pace and Brown looks like a good fit at quarterback. BYU has scored 34 points or more in all but one of their games so far this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* You could make a good argument that this is a matchup of 2 of the bottom 5 defenses in the country. Kent State is either the worst defense in the country or they are second or third worst. Kent State is allowing 6.94 yards per play on the season. Kent is especially bad against the pass. Their opponent QBR allowed is 132nd in the nation. 

Western Michigan is giving up 7.32 yards per play in MAC play. The Broncos defense has been even worse than Kent in conference play alone. Western Michigan has allowed 19 plays of 20 yards or more in three games in MAC play. 

Western Michigan's offense is one of the best in the MAC. They have great balance. Western Michigan is PFF's 6th ranked offense in the country. I think they'll hit plenty of big plays against this Kent State defense. 

Kent State has been weak on offense for the year overall, but in MAC play they are 4th in yards per play on offense.

Three of Western Michigan's last five games have finished with a combined total of 87 points or more. Kent State has seen two of its last three games finish at 72 points or more.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers defense isn't good, but I think it is a little better than it looks on paper now. The Mountaineers were absolutely crushed by Clemson and that skewed their stats some. Marshall scored 52 points on them with less than 400 yards of total offense because of turnovers and short fields. Appalachian State looked better on defense against Louisiana last game. They have too much talent to be terrible on defense all year. 

Georgia State's offense has been slumping of late. Georgia State has scored only 20, 14, and 21 points in losses to Marshall, ODU, and Georgia Southern in their last three games. The Georgia State offense is just 92nd in offensive explosiveness. 

Appalachian State is reliant on explosive plays on offense, and their running game has been way down this year.

These two teams are just slightly faster than average in tempo in a neutral game state. This is a very high posted total for two offenses who are mediocre. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has really impressed so far this year. Liam Coen is doing a great job putting together a system that helps put Baker Mayfield in a situation where he can succeed. Mike Evans is elite and the Bucs scheme has been great. 

Baltimore is first in the NFL in yards per play for the season at 6.9 yards per play. The Ravens are averaging 7.3 yards per play in their last three games. Lamar Jackson is rolling right now, and the Ravens have plenty of weapons to get the ball to now. 

The Ravens defense has allowed the most plays of 20 yards or more so far this year. Baltimore's defense hasn't been up to par compared to its defensive unit in recent years. Baltimore is 22nd in yards per play allowed this year.

These are two top six or so offenses and two defenses who are bottom half of the NFL right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Steelers have chosen to go with Russell Wilson at quarterback in this one. It kind of surprises me since they are 4-2 with Justin Fields under center. Also, the Steelers offensive line has cluster injuries. The Jets should be able to get a lot of pressure on Wilson. He's no longer nearly as mobile as he was in the past, and I think that pressure will bother him here. Wilson could certainly be rusty as well.

Aaron Rodgers hasn't played consistently well for the Jets. He does get a nice new weapon in Adams, but the Steelers defensive front should be able to get into the backfield a lot here as well. The Steelers still have a pretty good pass rush and the middle of the defensive line is good against the run.

I think both defenses will create negative plays here and get the opposition behind the sticks.

The under is 32-10 in the last 42 Sunday Night Football games. The under is 6-0 in the 6 Sunday Night games so far this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders have been fantastic on offense. Jayden Daniels has been better than anyone could have expected in his rookie season. Daniels is the ultimate dual threat quarterback. He has plenty of weapons around him both in the running and passing game as well.

Carolina is one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Panthers weren't good defensively to start with, but now with major defensive injuries they are in a terrible spot. Carolina has absolutely no pass rush at this point. The secondary is giving up far too many big plays.

Andy Dalton has come in and made this Panthers offense decent, which is a huge upgrade from what they were earlier in the season under Bryce Young. The Commanders defense has a bottom three pass rush as well, so Dalton should have plenty of time.

Four of the Panthers first six games have finished with 57 total points or more. The Commanders have seen four of their first six games finish with 53 points or more.

Washington should score a lot, and I think the Panthers can score quite a few here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams get behind the sticks too much. Kentucky 128th in tackles for loss allowed and Florida 71st in the country. Neither offense is consistently good enough to dig out of these holes.

I'm encouraged by what I’ve seen from this Florida defense the last couple games. 4.4 YPP allowed to UCF- I know UCF has issues but still impressive for the Gators defense. Just 4.5 YPP allowed to Tenn on the road. Fla doing a good job not giving up big plays.

Florida is 73rd in tempo and 117th for Kentucky in pace so there shouldnt' be many possessions.. Kentucky running the ball on 63% of their offensive snaps. Kentucky run game is successful without being explosive which can lend itself to unders especially since they aren’t good in the red zone. Long possessions ending in field goals are a big positive.

The fact is we have two teams who rank in the bottom 20 in the country in explosiveness. We have two defenses who are excellent at preventing big plays. I think this will be a tight low scoring game.

Take the under.