*3 Star Play Under* The New York Giants will start Jaxson Dart in this game. Dart is up against a really good defense in the Chargers here. This is very tough ask of him right away. I expect the Giants to run the football more and play it more cautious than normal. The offensive line in front of Dart is clearly a bad one.

The Giants have been an under machine at home, especially as a home underdog. As a home underdog of 6.5 points or less the under is a whopping 21-3 in the last 24 contests. Here is another game that fits this system.

The Chargers are content to play at a slow pace and if they have control of the game they run the football quite a bit. The Giants front seven on defense is very strong and I think they can get some pressure on Herbert here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The last four times these two teams have played the combined total has finished at 38 points or less. 

Kentucky's offensive numbers are propped up by rolling up a big number on the lowly Eastern Michigan Eagles defense. Eastern Michigan is a bottom three defense in the country. Kentucky had just 4.6 YPP on offense against Toledo. The Wildcats passing game is very weak. They are reliant on running the football. South Carolina is 34th in rushing PPA allowed. They are 23rd in preventing explosive rushing plays. Kentucky will have to slowly work the ball down the field on the ground. 

South Carolina's offense has struggled overall this season. Sellers is a superstar, but the offensive line is very weak. The Gamecocks are 130th in offensive success rate. They are 130th in red zone TD percentage too, so they are struggling to finish drives. 

It is supposed to rain earlier in the day, and there are possible showers at times during the game. This is a grass field and the footing could be worse than normal here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Matt Campbell has been an under coach. The under is 87-62 in his games as a head coach. When the total is 48 or higher- the under is 61% in Campbell’s teams games!

Arizona is just 122nd in offensive success rate. They are 6th in defensive success rate. Iowa State 55th in offensive success rate. 36th in defensive success rate.

Arizona hasn’t played good defenses, and yet the Wildcats have still really struggled to get anything going on offense. They haven’t found an identity yet. I don't think they'll get much going in this game.

On the other side, I love Gonzales the DC for Arizona, and I think he can scheme up something solid here to slow down Rocco Beccht and company.

Matt Campbell in a game with a total above 48 and an opponent with an improving defense

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles rank 22nd in the country in plays per minute so they are moving very quickly pace wise. Jacksonville State is 44th, which is above average as well.

Southern Miss is 51st in pass play success rate on offense, and Jacksonville State is 101st in pass play success rate allowed. The Gamecocks secondary is their biggest weakness. I expect Braylon Braxton and company to be able to exploit that weakness. Southern Miss is 38th in pass play explosiveness, and Jacksonville State is 101st in passing play explosiveness allowed. 

Jacksonville State's offense is all about the running game with Cam Cook. Cook is putting up some really impressive numbers this season. Wimsatt at QB is a good runner as well. I think Cook will have a big game here. Southern Miss is 108th in PPA/rush and 109th in rushing play explosiveness allowed. Jacksonville State is 14th in the nation in PPA/rush offensively and they are 23rd in rushing play explosiveness. Southern Miss is good in the secondary, but I think they'll be ran on here.

Two fast paced teams with the offenses strengths being the opposing defenses weakness here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats once again have a strong defense, but an offense that is very questionable. 

Northwestern under David Braun has been very good at turning games into rock fights and winning or being competitive thanks to their ability to not give up big plays and play well on special teams. 

Oregon only had 373 yards of offense against Northwestern, and that Oregon offense is elite. Northwestern only allowed 23 points against Tulane despite turning the ball over five times.

UCLA is seriously lacking in explosiveness, and the UCLA offensive line is a big weakness. I don't think the coaching change is going to make the offense better quickly.

This field is right by the lake, and any wind can cause major issues. The current forecast looks like there could be a bit of wind to contend with in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen and Rice Owls don't have exactly the same type of offenses, but they definitely share quite a few similarities. 

Navy is a much more explosive offense with the ability to throw the ball down the field at times. Rice has to run it to be successful. The Owls severely lack playmakers on the offensive end. 

Rice beat Navy 24-10 last year. I think Navy will be ready to play in this one. The Navy defense is 22nd in rushing success rate allowed. Rice runs it the third most of any team in the country, just behind Navy who is second most run heavy in the country. Rice has no passing game. In four games, they only have 11 passing plays of 10 yards or more. Rice is second to last in the nation in offensive explosiveness. 

Navy will run it early and often, and Rice is 16th in rushing play success rate allowed. I do expect Navy to move the ball here, but I think it will be long slow drives.

Both teams rank in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo. Two top three teams in terms of rush rate and bottom ten in terms of tempo means a lot of running the clock. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The James Madison Dukes have an elite running game. The Dukes have three good runners, and I sincerely doubt that Georgia Southern can stop them or even slow them down here. Georgia Southern ranks dead last in run defense grade at PFF at #136 in the nation. 

Georgia Southern prefers to throw the football, and I think with their tempo and receiving option they can do at least some damage against the James Madison defense. 

The Georgia Southern defense is significantly worse than they were a year ago, and James Madison is far better offensively now than they were when they played GA Southern last season.

I think James Madison puts up a pretty big number and this one goes over the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils aren't the same team they were a year ago. Duke's secondary is shorthanded right now, and their best cornerback from last year is in the NFL. Teams have been able to throw it all over the Blue Devils.

Duke gave up 535 yards in their win against NC State. Duke allowed 6.8 yards per play against Tulane as well.

Syracuse has rolled up at least 433 yards of offense in three straight games. Angeli has played well, but will miss the game with an injury. Rickie Collins had initially won the job and the LSU transfer should be good enough to put up points here on this weak Duke defense.

The Syracuse defense gave up more than 500 yards against Clemson, and Tennessee put up 7.3 yards per play against them.

These two teams both rank in the top ten in the country in tempo. A bunch of possessions and on the fast track at Syracuse. I think this one gets high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame defense has regressed significantly under Chris Ash, who appears to be a large downgrade from Golden at defensive coordinator. Notre Dame is bottom five in the country in havoc created, and they just gave up 30 points to a bad Purdue offense. They also allowed 7.1 yards per play against Texas A&M. 

Fortunately for Notre Dame, their offense is hitting its stride. The Fighting Irish rolled up 56 points against Purdue. They put up 40 on Texas A&M. This is an explosive running game, and Arkansas just gave up 290 yards rushing to Memphis. 

Taylen Green should have a big day here. He is an explosive guy who can do it with his legs or through the air. Notre Dame appears very vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks. 

A lot of big plays both ways here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Janson Junk consistently gives up about 3 runs in 5 or 6 innings. He is a mediocre starting pitcher. He's going up against a red hot Phillies lineup. Philadelphia is hitting the ball as well as any team in baseball. They are having very high scoring games of late. In fact, 12 of the Phillies last 14 games have gone above this posted total. 

Walker Buehler is coming off a couple better starts, but the totality of his work is very poor this season. The Miami Marlins offense has been on fire in recent games as well. Miami's young lineup is really producing in a big way late in the season.

The wind is blowing out here and there is some rain in the forecast. The middle relief for both teams is questionable if there is a rain delay.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals start Stephen Kolek here. Kolek has a 1.67 ERA and a 2.07 FIP in his last four starts. Kolek has 3 walks/19 strikeouts in those outings and he has allowed 0 home runs. He does a good job inducing soft contact.

Yusei Kikuchi is an up and down pitcher, but his numbers are much better at home. Kikuchi has absolutely dominated this Royals lineup too. Kansas City's lineup has a .192 weighted on base average in 61 plate appearances against him. 

Zach Neto is a key guy at the top of the order for the Angels, and he is out for the season. The Angels bottom of the order is one of the worst in the majors.

Kansas City has been very poor against lefties this year.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The USC Trojans are first in the nation in yards per play at 9.64 yards per play. Cincinnati is second, but they are back at 8.38 yards per play. The Trojans have been terrific all season. They started a bit slowly on the road at Purdue, but the offense got it going later in the game.

Jayden Maiava is a good decision maker who has taken that next step forward with Lincoln Riley helping him along. Riley's system is obviously great for the quarterback. USC has great team speed at the skill positions on offense too. This is an explosive offense that should really test a Michigan State secondary which I view as a relative weakness. Michigan State's DLine is strong, but I think USC can beat them through the air.

Michigan State's offense has looked much improved the last couple games. Aiden Chiles does have a high upside, and USC gave up 5.3 YPP to Purdue and 20 points to GA Southern.

With this below key numbers of 55 and 56 I'm taking the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners offense is working very well. UTSA has scored 24 points (against Tex A&M), 36 points against Texas State, and 49 points against Incarnate Word. The UTSA defense is clearly well down from a year ago though. UTSA has allowed 42 points, 43 points, and 20 points in those three games. UTSA went from being a very good defense, to being 113th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Colorado State has a pretty good quarterback in Fowler-Nicolosi. The Rams are in the top 25 in passing play percentage in the country. The UTSA secondary is a clear weakness. 

UTSA is throwing the ball on 54.1% of their offensive plays too. The Colorado State secondary is inexperienced and I think they can be beaten.

Colorado State has sped up their tempo this season (10th so far in pace). UTSA gets involved in a lot of shootouts.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils defense is clearly not the same without Josh Pickett (star cornerback now in the NFL) and Terry Moore (injured safety). Duke's star defensive end Sabastian Harsh will miss the first half of this game too due to a targeting suspension. Duke is 122nd in the nation in passing PPA allowed. They are also 126th in explosiveness allowed. Duke's secondary is letting them down badly. Now, they have to be without their superstar pass rusher for a half as well. 

C.J. Bailey and the NC State offense have been good this year. Smothers gives them an excellent RB. The wide receivers are solid as well. Bailey has a stellar 86.5 PFF grade, which is one of the best in the country. He only has one turnover worthy play all season thus far. NC State should have offensive success.

The NC State defense has regressed pretty badly. They are missing their star defensive coordinator (Gibson) from last year. NC State is 97th nationally in overall PPA allowed. Duke is 7th in the nation in tempo. With Mensah they are playing very quickly and moving the ball well. 

Duke is 38th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. NC State is a terrible 132nd in the country in explosiveness allowed.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I've been very impressed with the Oklahoma defense so far this year. Michigan tore through Central Michigan like they were nothing last week, but they had a very hard time finding any room against Oklahoma. I know Temple isn't a really good offense by any means, but Oklahoma holding them to 1.9 yards per play and 3 points last week was great work.

Auburn is running the ball on more than 60% of their offensive snaps so far this season. Oklahoma's defense is elite at stuffing the run. The Tigers offensive line can usually dominate, but I think they will struggle to run it against Oklahoma.

The Auburn defense has been solid this year. Oklahoma's offense has been inconsistent, and I don't think they'll put up a big number here.

Jackson Arnold is back to play his old team, and emotions will be high here. I expect to see a spirited battle between two good defenses and two teams who want to run the football. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans lost star quarterback Goose Crowder to an injury last week. Troy then could not move the football at all with Tucker Kilcrease under center. Kilcrease has a long term PFF of about 50 (very bad) from playing last year and this year. Troy loses all explosiveness on offense without Crowder in the game. Troy scored zero points on offense last week against a Memphis defense that is just middle of the road.

Buffalo played poorly last week, and the Bulls defensive effort was disappointing. I still believe this Buffalo front seven is one of the best in the MAC and a very good G5 level unit. Troy will try to run the football here, and I don't think they'll have much success.

The Troy defense is a very good unit. Clemson only gained 316 yards against them. Troy's strength is in the front seven on defense as well. Buffalo has a good running game, but Roberson hasn't looked very trustworthy throwing the football.

A lot of running the football, and not very many explosive plays.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The TCU Horned Frogs passing attack is elite with Josh Hoover at the helm. This is a really tough matchup for the SMU pass defense. SMU allowed 601 yards to Baylor earlier this year. TCU should roll up a big number here too. In their other two games, SMU has faced overmatched opponents in E Texas A&M and Missouri State.

SMU's offensive line is a strength, and it should give Jennings time to throw here. TCU is 120th in passing PPA allowed. The Horned Frogs allowed 453 yards and 6.0 yards per play to Abilene Christian last weekend. 

TCU has put up 7.5 and 8.2 yards per play on offense in their two games this season. They are 39th in passing play frequency despite having huge leads in both games. They want to throw it around. The SMU secondary is their weakness.

In the last five meetings between these two teams, four of the games have been 76 points or higher. Last year, the final was 66-42.

A ton of pace in this one. Back and forth. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have become a completely different team last year and this year than they were earlier in Greg Schiano's time as a head coach. Rutgers has a better offense than they did, but their defense (and especially their run defense) has dropped off in a big way.

Rutgers cannot stop the run anymore. The Scarlet Knights are allowing 5.58 yards per carry on the season thus far. They even allowed 4.74 yards per carry against Norfolk State last week. Miami (OH) couldn't do anything offensively against Wisconsin, but Miami put up 8.4 yards per play against Rutgers. 

Rutgers is a solid 48th in the country in yards per play. Rutgers has scored 34 points, 45 points, and 60 points in their 3 games this season.

Iowa always has a good defense, and they do once again. However, they have had two non tests in UMass and Albany. Iowa State's offense is decent, but not spectacular. 

Iowa's offense isn't prolific by any means, but they are improved from the last few seasons. Gronowski can run it and he is clearly an upgrade over anyone Iowa has had at quarterback in the last 3 or 4 years. The Hawkeyes have played a bit faster as well. Instead of a bottom 10 tempo team, they have played at an average tempo.

Rutgers has seen 11 straight games go over this posted total.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days, and it isn't very close. The Guardians bullpen has been great though. They are first in the majors in FIP in the last 30 days. 

The Guardians had seen 10 of their last 11 games stay under this total before last night's extra innings contest. 

Gavin Williams is throwing the ball well right now, and the Tigers have a terrible .225 wOBA against Williams in 77 plate appearances. 

Jack Flaherty has been up and down this year, but he has great numbers against Cleveland. He has allowed only a .239 wOBA in 89 plate appearances against the Guardians. He has pitched into some bad luck of late, with a FIP that is much lower than his ERA in the past couple months.

A slight wind blowing in here helps too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Pirates start Paul Skenes here. Skenes hasn't allowed a run in his last two starts. He has a 1.74 ERA in his last 10 starts. Skenes continues to have excellent control and his swinging strike rate is extremely high. He has been very good against this Cubs lineup, and I don't see any reason to expect that to change here.

Cade Horton has a 0.84 ERA in his last 10 starts. Horton has allowed 0 runs in 6 of those 10 starts. He's up against a Pirates lineup that is one of the two or three worst lineups in baseball.

The slight wind that there is in this game is blowing in from left field.

I think this has the makings of a great pitching duel between two elite young starting pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mitchell Parker has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors for quite some time now. Parker has a 7.94 ERA and a 6.57 FIP in his last eight starts. Parker is giving up 2.5 home runs per nine innings during that time. In Parker's last 16 starts, 12 of them have gone over this total of 9 runs. 

The Atlanta Braves start Spencer Strider. Strider hasn't been looking like his old self. He's walking way too many guys, and the swinging strike rate is down. Strider has a very poor history against the Nationals as well. This Nationals lineup has a .438 weighted on base average against Strider, and he is definitely throwing it worse this year than it he has in his career on the whole.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos have arguably the best defense in the NFL. I know the Titans aren't world beaters on offense, but Denver held them to a miniscule 2.4 yards per play this past weekend. The Broncos secondary is an elite unit, and the rest of the defense is very good as well.

The Indianapolis Colts defense looked great in shutting down the Dolphins on Sunday. Miami had just 211 total yards of offense. The Dolphins have plenty of offensive weapons too. 

The Colts shouldn't be too explosive on offense with Daniel Jones at quarterback. I would expect the Broncos to game plan for shutting down the run here and rely on their great secondary. 

Bo Nix and the Broncos offense is inconsistent. They don't have elite skill position talent all around either.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams met in December 2024 and the final was 36-30 in OT. That game had a posted total of 47. This line shouldn't be set so much lower because of one low scoring week.

In the NFL in the past decade, games in week two between two teams who both saw their week one games go under the total- those games have been very good over bets in week two. Both of these teams saw their first game go well under the total.

In a dome on a fast track, this is an ultra low total. The Panthers have a bottom 3 or 4 defense in the NFL. The Cardinals defense is middle of the pack. 

I think Arizona's offense can put up a big number here. Murray and his wide receivers should have a bigger game here.

Carolina should be able to do enough. The Panthers have been good at scoring late in the game when down in the last couple seasons.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans defense played very well against the Broncos last week. The Broncos busted one big run, but even with that they only had 4.5 yards per play. The Titans tackled well and gave Bo Nix quite a bit of trouble.

On the offensive end, the Titans were dreadful. Yes, the Broncos have a very good defense. Still, the Titans averaged just 2.4 yards per play and picked up only 7 first downs. 

The Rams defensive line is a strength, and the Titans offensive line is a big problem. Latham is injured here and may not play. The Titans don't have depth on the offensive front. 

Despite trailing through the game, the Titans played at a slow pace last week. The Rams typically play relatively slow as well.

Matt Stafford still isn't completely healthy, and the Rams offensive line isn't particularly strong either.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow square off just as they did in the college football title game in 2020. 

Burrow and the Bengals offense played poorly in week one in Cleveland. They were fortunate to get out of Cleveland with a win. I expect much better from the Bengals offense in week two. The Jaguars defense is definitely worse than the Browns defense. The defensive front from the Jags isn't likely to get in the backfield as often as Myles Garrett and the Browns.

Liam Coen is a great offensive mind, and I expect him to do a really good job with the Jacksonville offense. I know they looked better in week one, but the Bengals defense was terrible a year ago and they didn't make many changes (other than DC). They also looked very poor in the preseason. 

I think both Lawrence and Burrow have a good game here. Both teams saw their week one game go under the total, and in the past that has made for a good week two over. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams have both played at a very slow tempo so far this year. LSU ranks bottom 20 in the country in pace of play. Florida ranks in the bottom ten in the country in pace of play.

The LSU defense is taking a huge step forward with Blake Baker as defensive coordinator. LSU completely shut down Clemson and then took care of business defensively against LA Tech. They have allowed only 207.5 yards per game through the first two. 

Florida only allowed 18 points against USF. It was the offense that let them down in that contest.

Both Florida and LSU have done a great job preventing explosive plays. They have both allowed only one play of 30 yards or more.

Both offenses have just 3 plays of 30 yards or more.

A lack of explosives and a slow pace.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Southern Eagles have a terrible defense. They allowed 59 points to USC (12.0 yards per play) and 42 points against Fresno State (527 total yards). 

Jacksonville State has gotten really good production out of the running game with Cam Cook. The biggest weakness of this Georgia Southern defense is their interior defensive line. They will be gashed by many good rushing attacks this year. I think the Gamecocks will run for a big number here.

Georgia Southern has played two good secondaries so far, but Jacksonville State is very weak in pass coverage. Georgia Southern wants to play fast and throw it around. Here is the type of defense they want to go up against. I think the Eagles pass happy attack will look far better in this game than it did in the first two contests.

A quick pace and the offenses with the advantages.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida Atlantic Owls are playing at the fastest pace of any team in the country. Florida Atlantic turned the ball constantly in Maryland territory in their first game. They did move the ball. Last week against Florida A&M, the Owls rolled up 553 yards and 360 passing yards. 

FIU only had 4.0 yards per play last week, but that was against an excellent Penn State defense that will shut down a lot of offenses this season. Florida Atlantic is one of the worst defenses in the country, and I think FIU will find moving the football far easier here.

The pace here should be quick and I don't think the FIU secondary will be good enough to slow Veltkamp and the offense all game. On the other side, FIU should break some explosive runs on the Owls weak front seven. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs play at a top 25 tempo in the country. The Missouri State defense is likely to be a bottom 10 or 15 defense in the country this season. The Bears are undersized on the defensive front, and SMU is likely to have their way on offense. Kevin Jennings is expected to play here and the SMU backup quarterbacks are solid if Jennings is pulled early. Missouri State allowed 73 points against USC in week one. 

Missouri State isn't bad offensively though. The Bears have a very good quarterback in Jacob Clark. Clark can throw it around, and SMU's secondary is a relative weakness right now.

The temperature is expected to be 91 degrees in this one. In college football- hot weather overs have been very profitable in the long run. The defenses tend to wear down and the tackling gets worse later in the game.

The pace should be quick here, and I like SMU to put up a big number. I think Missouri State scores enough with Clark doing some work here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls have played two terrible defenses in UMass and Howard. Temple has moved the ball well in those games, but I really doubt they'll have much success moving the ball in this one.

Oklahoma's defensive front is elite. The Sooners won't be run on by many teams this year. Oklahoma can be thrown on at times, but this Temple offense is heavily run based. Temple is 124th out of 136 in the country in terms of tempo. The Owls want to slow the game down as much as possible. Coach Keeler's teams have done that in the past, especially when they are clearly at a talent disadvantage. 

Oklahoma is in a letdown spot here after a big win over Michigan. The number here has moved heavily toward Temple. Oklahoma could definitely let off the gas here offensively. The Sooners wouldn't really benefit from running up the score. They are more likely to want to get ready for Auburn next week.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Angels and Marinrs just played a 12 inning game and ruined their bullpens on Thursday night. Both of the starting pitchers in this game have been struggling, and they could struggle to pitch deep into the game.

The Angels are averaging 5.5 runs per game in their last six games. The Mariners are averaging 8 runs per game in their last six games.

Kikuchi starts for the Angels, and he has been crushed of late. In fact, he has a 9.13 ERA in his last five starts. He ranks in the bottom 7% of all pitchers in the majors in average exit velocity for season. Seattle has several guys who have hit him very well. That includes Suarez who has 3 HR's in 12 at bats against Kikuchi.

Luis Castillo has a 7.83 ERA and a 6.06 FIP in his last five starts. Castillo has allowed 7 home runs in his last five starts. 

The bullpens are 17th and 22nd in bullpen ERA in the last 30 days. Both have used their best arms heavily in recent games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians start Gavin Williams here. Williams is a good young pitcher who has been pitching his best late in the season.

The Kansas City Royals are 25th in wOBA for the season. Bobby Witt Jr. is trying to play through and injury and he hasn't been himself of late.

Cleveland is last in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Guardians have struggled offensively at home all year long. 

Both defenses have been very good at saving runs and that could be key here.

The weather is calling for temperatures in the upper 60's with a light wind blowing in from center field.

Phil Cuzzi is a very good under umpire. The under is 67-44 in Cuzzi's games behind home plate since 2022. He is a strike caller and a very pitcher friendly umpire. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Eury Perez is in really poor form of late. Perez has a 8.53 ERA and a 7.41 FIP in his last six starts. He has been giving up a lot of very hard hit baseballs in recent starts. The Nationals just torched him for 7 runs in 4 IP in his last start.

Washington has scored 45 runs in their last six games. The Nationals offense has absolutely caught fire. James Wood continues to hit the ball well, and Josh Bell has had an amazing resurgence in the last couple weeks. 

Jake Irvin is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Irvin has an 8.86 ERA and a 7.08 FIP in his last 9 innings pitched. Irvin has been consistently terrible, and he has been even worse away from home.

Both of these pitchers have the potential to give up big innings at any time right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mike Tomlin's teams have struggled offensively on the road in the last decade, but they have been tremendous on defense. When Tomlin and the Steelers are on the road in the first ten games of the season- the under is a whopping 40-11 in the last 51 contests. 

The Steelers offense has all sorts of question marks. Will Rodgers be a good fit? He's clearly far past his prime and his level of play last season wasn't very high. The Jets defense is a good one too, and they should make life difficult on him.

Justin Fields hasn't proven himself as a quarterback in the NFL. The Jets lost their best offensive lineman Vera-Tucker to an injury this week. Their lack of depth on the offensive line makes that a big problem. The Steelers defensive front is one of the best in the NFL.

It's a low total, but I don't think it is quite low enough. A 17-14 type of game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri State Bears are a new FBS team this year. Missouri State's defense is going to be badly overmatched this season. They lost a bunch of talent from a year ago, and now take a big step up in terms of schedule strength they will be playing. Missouri State is going to give up a bunch of points this season. 

Marshall isn't a good offense necessarily, but I expect them to be able to break some big rushing plays against a very weak front seven for Missouri State. USC is certainly talented on offense, but they put up video game numbers. They won 73-13 and put up 10.5 yards per play.

Marshall's defense is way down from what they have been from recent seasons. I do think Missouri State has two good quarterbacks and they'll likely play pretty quickly in terms of tempo. 

I think the oddsmakers are underestimating how much worse the Marshall defense is, and just how bad the Missouri State defense will be on a weekly basis.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats got into a shootout with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Week One. Ohio put up 7.1 yards per play in that one. They allowed 6.8 yards per play in that contest. Navarro had a huge game both through the air and on the ground. 

West Virginia definitely wants to play fast under Rich Rodriguez. The Mountaineers have two really good running backs. Rutgers was able to run the ball very well on Ohio, and I think West Virginia will as well. The Mountaineers just play at a much faster tempo.

The Mountaineers defense lost a lot from a year ago, and I see their secondary as a big weakness. Ohio should be able to hit some big gainers here. West Virginia wasn't tested by a very weak Robert Morris offense, but they'll be tested here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners impressed me with a really good ground game against an excellent Texas A&M defense in week one. UTSA put up 24 points, and they ran for 203 yards. I like their quarterback Owen McCown, and he has good weapons around him.

Texas State got a new quarterback this year, but the Bobcats offense was firing on all cylinders in game one against Eastern Michigan. Texas State scored 52 points and ran for a whopping 392 yards in that game. The Bobcats averaged 9.2 yards per play.

Texas State will be a top ten teams in the country in terms of pace of play. UTSA should be top 30 or 40 in the country in tempo. I expect a bunch of possessions in this game. 

The offenses have plenty of advantages. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers got a fantastic defensive leader in Catalon at safety. Newsom is a really good linebacker as well. I think the Missouri defense will be very solid this season. 

While Pribula looked good against an FCS team, I do think the Missouri offense will struggle to move the ball consistently this year. Missouri lost two star receivers and I would expect them to try to run the football a lot in this game.

Kansas hasn't been tested by a good defense yet. Daniels has proven to be inconsistent, and I think this Missouri secondary could give him trouble. The Jayhawks defense certainly isn't fantastic, but they are clearly improving. They held Fresno State to 3.7 YPP and then Fresno State's offense looked very good against GA Southern.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats defense looked very good against Nebraska. They gave up only 4.5 yards per play against a Nebraska offense that I expect to be good this season.

Cincinnati's offense still has some issues with Sorsby under center. He's a good scrambler and can make some nice plays, but he makes questionable decisions and doesn't have enough accuracy on his passes.

Bowling Green won 26-7 over Lafayette in week one. Only 19 of the points came on offense, since they ran back the opening kick for a TD. The Falcons ran the ball 43 times and threw it just 18 times. I don't trust Drew Pyne and company to move the ball very well here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Ohio Redhawks get involved in a lot of sloppy low scoring games. They are always very solid on defense, but their offense moves slowly and is often overmatched against bigger name schools. 

Miami Ohio lost 17-0 against Wisconsin in week one. They had just 7 first downs and averaged only 2.9 yards per play. The Wisconsin defense is definitely good, but being held to those numbers is a horrible look. DeQuan Finn is a good QB, but he has very little skill position talent around him, and the offensive line is young.

Rutgers got involved in a higher scoring game last week, but that was against an Ohio team that is better offensively and worse defensively than Miami. Rutgers is the third slowest paced team in the country through the first week. They are in no hurry and they will use up the play clock. Miami rates in the bottom 15 in the country in tempo, and that is even with them playing from behind the entire game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green should be much better on defense this year under new DC Skyler Cassity. He did a fantastic job at Sam Houston, and he brought some of his best players over to be the leaders of this North Texas defense. I expect Trey Fields to be a force at linebacker. Yes it was only Lamar (FCS), but North Texas shut them out last week. The Mean Green routinely gave up a lot of points to teams like this in the past. 

Western Michigan's offense couldn't get anything going at all against Michigan State. Their only points in that game came thanks to a Michigan State pick six. They managed to run for only 29 yards on 24 carries. Western Michigan has major question marks at quarterback as well. 

The Western Michigan defense did do a good job limiting Michigan State's offense in that season opener. The Spartans averaged just 4.9 yards per play. 

The forecast here is key as well. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 26 mph at time of kickoff. It would be a cross wind that can be difficult for passing. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Blue Jays and Yankees are both top 3 in the majors in nearly every major offensive category in the last 30 days. These are two excellent offenses.

The wind is blowing out at Yankee Stadium at about 12 mph on a warm day with a high in the mid 80's. The weather conditions are fantastic for an over.

Chris Bassitt is an inconsistent starter, and he has allowed a .376 wOBA against this Yankees lineup in a very large sample size. 

Luis Gil is a middle of the road starter, and the Blue Jays bats are on fire of late. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks are still a pretty good offense. The DBacks top of the order is one of the best in baseball. Tolle is a good young pitcher for the Red Sox, but he has flown up through the minors and he's now up against much better hitters than he has seen anytime. He faced the Pirates in his first start, so this is a much tougher test.

Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled this year. He has very poor numbers against this Red Sox lineup as well. Trevor Story has really seen the ball well off Rodriguez. 

Chase Field is still a top four or five hitters ballpark in all of baseball. A total set this low isn't very common here without high level pitchers going.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Yankees and  Blue Jays are the second and third ranked offenses in baseball in the last 30 days in terms of weighted on base average. 

The Yankees have gotten red hot of late. They have scored 7 runs or more in six of their last eight games. Kevin Gausman is a pretty good pitcher overall, but he has been torched in his last three starts at Yankee Stadium. Gausman has allowed 17 runs in his last 8 and 2/3 innings pitched at Yankee Stadium. He has a tough task here.

Cam Schlittler is a good young pitcher, but he has faced a lot of very weak lineups. His last four starts have been against very weak offenses. He's up against a top five offense in baseball here in the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto has scored 37 runs in their last four games.

The two bullpens here are no better than mediocre. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins have been hitting right handed pitching, and Davis Martin is certainly a below average right handed pitcher. Simeon Woods Richardson is also a below average right handed pitcher.

The key for this game to me though is that both bullpens have been awful in the last month. The Twins traded away their top two bullpen arms, and they are struggling badly. The White Sox have a bottom three bullpen that is worn out right now.

There are showers expected here which could mean the bullpen gets a lot of time, and I'll be on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Shane Baz has been rocked when pitching at home in Tampa this season. Baz has a 7.06 ERA at home on the season. Baz has an 8.47 ERA in his last seven starts overall. 

Seattle's offense ranks in the top five in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Mariners have plenty of power, and Baz is prone to that big inning.

Luis Castillo has been in very poor form of late too. Castillo has a 6.66 ERA and a 6.70 FIP in his last five starts overall. 

Tampa Bay has hit right handed pitching well all season, and the Rays have continued that trend of late. 

These are two starters who have at times been absolutely smashed. I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Teng has been awful for the Giants. He has an 8.78 ERA and 9 walks in just 13 and 1/3 innings pitched this season. He has given up free baserunners and a lot of hard contact. Those are bad combinations going to Coors Field.

Chase Dollander has been absolutely crushed at Coors Field this season. Dollander has a 9.88 ERA in 41 innings pitched at Coors. Opponents have a whopping .407 weighted on base average against him at Coors. 

The Giants have averaged 9 runs per game in their last five games. Now, they go to take on a very bad starting pitcher at Coors Field.

Colorado is solid offensively at home as well.

Coors Field day games with a total of 12 or lower and a high temperature of 82 degrees or higher have gone over the total at a 56.2% clip in the last 20 seasons. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The wind is blowing in at Fenway Park. The wind matters the most at Wrigley Field in Chicago, but Fenway is where long term stats show the wind matters second most. With the wind blowing in at Fenway and relatively moderate temperatures, it is a clear positive for the pitchers in this one.

Messick has been fantastic in his two starts in the majors. He has just one walk and 12 strikeouts. He is one of the higher prospects in the Guardians organization, and he is showing why right now. 

Boston hasn't been hitting very well of late. Six of their last seven games have stayed under this total. 

Cleveland has seen five of their last seven stay under this total as well. Bello starts for Boston here and he has gotten stronger as the season has gone on.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have a new offensive coordinator in Drew Hollingshead from Western Kentucky. He is an air raid guy who has talked recently about wanting to push the tempo and confuse the defense with a lot of quick unique looks. 

Coastal Carolina has a couple good QB options in Morris and Brown. The Chanticleers absolutely upgraded in the RB room in the offseason. The wide receiver room has depth. 

Virginia's defensive line is decent, but I don't like their LB's or secondary. The Cavaliers are going to get picked on by good teams through the air. 

Offensively, Virginia has Chandler Morris who should fit nicely into the Kitchings system. The Cavs have a much improved RB room with Waylee and Brown. 

Coastal's weakness on defense should be against the pass, and I think Virginia can take advantage of that weakness. 

I expect quite a few possessions in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Florida Atlantic Owls are going to look a whole lot different under Zach Kittley. Kittley is fully committed to pushing the tempo to the max, and airing it out consistently. Veltkamp from Western Kentucky comes over to take the QB spot. I see this as a clear upgrade from Fancher who started at QB last season. This team should rank in the top 10 or 15 in the country in terms of pace of play.

The Florida Atlantic defense is in some major trouble! The coaching staff has said they are very concerned about the secondary, and the defensive line had just 17 sacks and allowed 4.9 YPC a year ago. Only one linebacker is back from a year ago as well. The tempo of the offense is going to hurt this defense, especially because they have very little depth. The Owls are going to give up points in loads this season.

Maryland's secondary was a huge weakness a year ago. I see no sign to expect things to improve this year. Florida Atlantic should have success through the air. 

Maryland has enough talent and speed on offense that I expect them to be able to pile up the points against this weak Owls defense. Nolan Ray is a good runner who can hit some explosives. Maryland has two athletic young quarterbacks. Maryland picked up some good WR's in Farooq and Webb. 

The Maryland defense was burned by multiple late transfers out of the linebacker unit. That should hurt them quite a bit this season.

A lot of pace and points is my expectation here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNLV Rebels allowed 31 points and 555 yards of total offense against the Idaho State Bengals in Week 0. UNLV lost star defenders Woodward, and Catalon from last year. I knew they would be down defensively, but they looked even worse than expected. Idaho State gained 6.4 yards per carry on the ground, which was the most stunning thing from that game.

UNLV will be up against Sam Houston here. Sam Houston gave up 41 points and 506 yards of offense against Western Kentucky in Week 0. The Sam Houston defense is way down without their defensive coordinator and all the key players from last year. The Rebels will have a clear skill advantage, and I think they'll break some big plays here.

Sam Houston's offense looked pretty good against Western Kentucky. The Bearkats actually failed to convert at a high rate in scoring opportunities. They averaged a solid 6.3 yards per play in that game. Hunter Watson played solid football for most of the game, and the running game broke multiple big plays. I think they can get some explosive plays against this UNLV defense as well.

Sam Houston is picking up the pace this year, and this total is pretty low considering how much these two defenses have lost. The offenses should have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals offense that struggled much of the year has come alive in the last couple weeks. They are top five in the majors in almost every offensive category in the last 14 days. Both Pasquantino and Witt Jr. have caught fire, and they are getting good performances from Perez and Garcia too. 

The Detroit Tigers are in the top ten in offensive categories in that same time period. The Tigers have scored six runs or more in 7 of their last 12 games. 

Detroit has an impressive .341 weighted on base average against Seth Lugo. They have hit for power against him in the past. 

Kansas City has a .363 wOBA against Chris Paddack in his career. 

Lugo has an 8.07 ERA and an 8.23 FIP in his last six starts. He has allowed 10 home runs in his last 29 innings pitched. Paddack has an ERA over 5 in his last eight starts too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack just lost to the East Carolina Pirates in a bowl game to finish off last year. The two in-state rivals square off again immediately to start this season. 

I fully expect East Carolina to be a very fast paced offense that airs it out early and often. I like Houser at quarterback, and I think Pettaway from Oklahoma will be a good weapon for him. NC State's clear defensive weakness is their secondary. The Wolfpack just don't have the talent needed at cornerback. 

East Carolina put up 7.0 yards per play against NC State in the bowl game. I think they'll move the ball very well again here.

East Carolina's defense is worse than it was last season. The secondary is their single biggest weakness as well. I like Bailey for NC State, and I think he'll put up some good numbers this year. East Carolina's pass rush is subpar, and the secondary is going to give up some big numbers to quality quarterbacks.

Both of these teams have struggled at preventing explosive plays. I think they'll be some big gainers here both ways. 

The weather looks perfect for this game with a mild temperature and virtually no wind.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both the Mets and Phillies have been in a bunch of high scoring contests in the last couple weeks. In fact, both teams have played 7 of their last 8 games over this posted total. Both lineups have really heated up of late.

Both pitchers in this game have struggled mightily in their previous appearances against the opposition in this contest. Sean Manaea has been especially bad against the Phillies. In a large sample size of 122 plate appearances, he has allowed a .399 weighted on base average against this Phillies lineup. Nick Castellanos has 3 HR's against him in just 19 at bats. Luzardo has allowed a .303 wOBA against the Mets lineup.

Manaea has allowed at least 4 runs in his last four starts. Luzardo is inconsistent and he's facing a Mets lineup that is good against lefties. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals on Sunday afternoon. The weather in this one calls for a temperature in the mid 80's and winds blowing out at 10 mph. It is great weather for the hitters in this one.

Jake Irvin has been getting smashed on a routine basis of late. Irvin has an 8.10 ERA and a 6.52 FIP in his last six starts. Irvin has a 4.15 ERA in the first half of the season in his career. He has an ugly 5.82 ERA in the second half of the season in his career.

Ranger Suarez has been struggling in recent outings, and the Nationals have been hitting the ball pretty well recently. Suarez has a 2.92 ERA in his career in the first half of the season, but it dips down to 3.95 in the second half. 

Suarez has a 2.25 ERA on the road this year and a 4.27 ERA at home. 

Five of the last six Phillies games have topped this total, and the one that stayed under finished at 9 runs.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Maverick McIvor from Abilene Christian is a great pickup for this offense. His offensive coordinator from Abilene comes with him to Western Kentucky, and McIvor threw for more than 3,800 yards last year at Abilene. This should be a pass heavy offense that plays at a quick tempo. 

Sam Houston lost all kinds of talent when KC Keeler left and the vast majority of the players left right with him. Phil Longo's style of play should mean the tempo picks up quite about for Sam Houston. That should be a major concern for this defense, which will be on the field a lot this year. Sam Houston's secondary was their biggest strength last year, but that is the biggest question mark entering this season. Western Kentucky will test that weakness immediately.

Western Kentucky's defensive line isn't good against the run, and Sam Houston has two really talented running backs. I think they'll gash Western Kentucky for some big gains on the ground in this one.

Both teams have new coordinators in who are looking to push the pace. Both defenses are a big question mark.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Valkyries are a different team without Kayla Thornton. Thornton averaged 14 points per game and 7 rebounds per game. Without Thornton, Golden State has far less firepower, and they have leaned heavily on slowing the game down and winning with their defense.

Golden State has been the second best defense in the WNBA at home. They are allowing just 0.94 points per possession at home. 

Golden State has slowed their pace down drastically in recent weeks. In the last ten games, the Valkyries are playing more than 4 possessions per game slower than the second slowest team in the WNBA.

The Phoenix Mercury are one of the best defensive teams in the WNBA as well. In the last ten games, they are second in the WNBA in defensive efficiency. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins will be without star Kyle Stowers due to an injury. He has been the Marlins best hitter by a wide margin in the last month. Miami is just 21st in weighted on base average and home, and they are bottom four in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Eury Perez hasn't been quite as good in his last couple starts, but Perez has fantastic advanced metrics. Even in his last start where he struggled, he still had 0 walks and 8 strikeouts. Perez has been tremendous at home in his career. He has a 2.00 ERA and a .253 wOBA allowed. All four of his starts this year at home have stayed under the total.

Liberatore has been up and down, but the Marlins are much better against righties. Also, Marlins Park is the third most pitcher friendly park in baseball so far this season.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and we know how important that is for totals here. No ballpark in the majors is changed by the wind the way Wrigley is on a consistent basis. Under bettors have been treated extremely well in similar conditions here in the past. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 10 or 11 mph during this game. 

The Cubs have played 10 of their last 11 games under this posted total. They have gotten fantastic pitching, and their lineup has really slumped of late. 

The Pirates offense is arguably the worst in all of baseball, and I think Assad and the bullpen can keep them down here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Angels have been an over machine of late. The Angels lineup has been producing in a big way. Zach Neto and Taylor Ward have really come on this season, and Mike Trout has looked better in recent weeks too. 

The Athletics offense has been very good with their young talent. Kurtz, Langaliers, and Rooker are tremendous young talents. Tyler Anderson has allowed a .350 wOBA against this Athletics lineup.

These two bullpens both rank in the bottom eight in all the advanced metrics. Morales isn't likely to pitch deep into the game, and Anderson hasn't been completely healthy (back issues). 

Sutter Park is second in the majors behind only Coors Field in park factor. This is a very favorable park for hitters.

The over is 7-0 (and all 7 have gone over 10.5) in the Angels last 7 games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are top three in offensive production away from home. The New York Mets offense has underachieved for quite some time, but they have finally found their footing. The Mets have scored 31 runs in their last four games. 

Both the Mariners and Mets rank in the bottom four teams in the majors in batting average on balls in play in the last 30 days. They have been due for some positive regression, and we've started to see it the last couple days. Seattle won an 11-9 high scoring contest on Friday night.

Citi Field is a place where the weather matters quite a bit. The over trends are very strong here on warm days with the wind blowing out. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph with a temperature in the low to mid 80's for this one.

Shane Livensparger is one of the best over umpires in the league and he's behind home plate here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Sky offense has been atrocious in the last few games. The Sky have averaged just 68 points per game in their last six games. 

Golden State plays at the slowest pace in the WNBA. The Valkyries have slowed things down even more recently when they have been playing without some of their best scoring options. They are relying on their defense to win them games, and it has been working.

Angel Reese is one of the best Chicago players in terms of offensive efficiency (offensive rebounding machine), but she is one of their worst defenders. The Sky defensive ratings have been much better in recent contests.

The most recent meeting between these two was 73-66. 

The last six Chicago Sky games have gone under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Sky team has looked quite a bit different without Angel Reese since she's been out the last few games. Reese had the highest offensive ratings (largely because of her great offensive rebounding prowess) on the team, but she had the second lowest defensive efficiency ratings of any Sky player. With Reese out, the Sky have given more minutes to Onyenwere and Williams and they are two of the top three on the team in defensive efficiency.  Chicago's pace has slowed down drastically too in recent games.

The Sun have had a very poor season overall. They did just get rid of one of their worst defenders in terms of ratings (Sheldon) and they too have slowed down their tempo of late. 

In the last five games, the two teams at the bottom of the WNBA in terms of offensive efficiency are the Sky and the Sun. I think the offensive efficiency numbers from these two could be pretty bad. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Eury Perez is an excellent young starter for the Marlins. He had his first poor start in a long time in his last outing. Perez is in the top 7% of all pitchers in the majors with an expected batting average allowed of just .204 according to Baseball Savant. His velocity is up and he's averaging 98 mph on his fastball.

Gavin Williams has taken a big step forward for the Guardians this year. Williams has a 2.77 ERA at home on the season. Williams is inducing softer contact while at the same time creating more swings and misses. He has a 1.63 ERA in his last six starts. His WHIP in those six starts is an impressive 0.93. 

The weather will cool off in Cleveland the light winds will switch around after the morning rain to a wind from the north. Those are good conditions for the under at Progressive Field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers are still the best offense in baseball when looking at the season long numbers. They are now expected to face Mederos who has very little big league experience and has struggled in that little time. This is a tough matchup for him, and I don't think he is likely to be in the game too long. 

Sheehan is a middle of the road right handed pitcher, and the Angels have been hitting the ball well of late. The Angels have seen four straight games go over this posted total. They have been getting good production out of Neto, Adell, and Mike Trout. 

Both bullpens rank in the bottom ten in the majors in ERA. The Angels middle relief is particularly poor and they are likely to be used a lot here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Paul Skenes is conistently throwing the ball as well as any pitcher in baseball. Skenes has been throwing his very best of late. In his last 15 starts, Skenes has a 1.51 ERA.

Skenes has a 1.78 ERA on the road and a ridiculous low .226 weighted on base average allowed on the road in his career.

Skenes also has elite numbers against the Brewers lineup. In 45 plate appearances against Skenes, the Brewers lineup has a .116 batting average and a .129 wOBA. He has a 35.6% strikeout rate.

Freddy Peralta has been excellent at home during his career. He has a 2.13 ERA at home this year, and he's up against arguably the worst lineup in all of baseball. 

Miller Park ranks as the second most pitcher friendly ballpark in baseball in the last three years combined, and it is in the top five again this season. 

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire here, and he is a very good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bryce Elder starts for the Braves here, and Elder has been really bad this season. He ranks in the bottom two percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. He's giving up a ton of hard contact, and his strikeout rate is far below average.

Edward Cabrera has a solid .268 weighted on base average allowed at home, but it is all the way up at .341 on the road. 

The Braves lineup has heated up a bit of late with Albies coming alive and some of the youngsters improving. The Braves are in the top half of the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days.

The Marlins offense is 11th in wOBA in the last 30 days. Miami's getting great production out of Stowers and Edwards in particular.

Whitson is the home plate umpire here, and the over is 38-25 in his last 63 behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The temperature at Coors Field for this one is expected to be an extremely hot 95 degrees. The ball flies extremely well at Coors with this kind of temperature. Day games have been noted to be much better for the carry of the ball here too.

Kyle Freeland doesn't have much in the way of swing and miss stuff, and the Blue Jays are mashing the baseball of late. Even with a total this high, the Blue Jays have seen 7 of their last 10 games go over 11.5 runs. 

The Rockies have had five straight games go over this total as well. 

The Blue Jays are first in the majors in weighted on base average over the last 30 days. The Rockies are seventh in wOBA in that same period. 

I think both of the offenses can get enough going in these conditions to turn this into a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tarik Skubal vs. Zack Wheeler is an elite starting pitching matchup. I think runs will be difficult to come by in this one. 

Skubal has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. He has a 2.09 ERA and a 1.93 FIP. He has a ridiculous 19 walks and 171 strikeouts. The Phillies offense is a good one, but they are a little better against right handed pitching, and Skubal is the best lefty in the majors. 

Wheeler has a 2.56 ERA and a 2.69 FIP on the season. He has a 2.00 ERA and a fantastic .226 weighted on base average allowed at home. 

Skubal has held the Phillies lineup to a .143 batting average in 47 plate appearances. Wheeler has held the Tigers to a .114 batting average in 37 plate appearances.

The wind will be blowing in slightly here and the temperatures have cooled off in Philadelphia.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Cubs beat the Baltimore Orioles 1-0 on Friday in a game that took just 1 hour and 49 minutes. The wind at Wrigley Field was blowing in and it killed a couple baseballs that would have been home runs.

The forecast for this game calls for mid 70's and wind blowing in here at about 8 mph during the game. 

Matthew Boyd is coming off a poor start, but he has been tremendous this year for the Cubs. Boyd has a 1.95 ERA at home this year. The Orioles offense is much weaker than it was before the trade deadline, and Baltimore has struggled with lefties all year.

Sugano starts for the Orioles. He has struggled with the long ball, but the conditions here should help.

Emil Jimenez is a strike caller and he has frustrated quite a few hitters already this year. I think he'll be giving the pitchers some borderline strikes.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather matters at Wrigley Field more than any other park. A temperature in the mid 70's on a mild August day in Chicago is a nice start. The wind is expected to be blowing straight in at about 12 mph during this game too. There are many strong angles based on taking Wrigley Field totals based on the wind.

Cade Horton is a good young starter for the Cubs who has a 2.12 ERA and a .279 weighted on base average allowed at home this season. The Baltimore Orioles just gutted the second half of their previously solid lineup at the trade deadline too. This team is now awfully top heavy with some easier outs later in the order.

Trevor Rogers starts for the Orioles, and he has been fantastic this year. Rogers has allowed a total of 5 earned runs in his last 40 innings pitched. Rogers has done a great job keeping the ball in the park as well. The Cubs are a good lineup, but they have been better against right handed pitching than lefties.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners take on the Athletics in Sacramento at Sutter Park on Tuesday night. Sutter Park has been the second most hitter friendly park in baseball this year behind only Coors Field. The weather for Tuesday night calls for temperatures in the upper 80's when this one starts and the ball should be flying well.

Luis Severino has been great on the road this year, but at home he has been crushed. Severino has a 6.68 ERA and a whopping .360 weighted on base average in 66 innings pitched at Sutter Park this year. 

Seattle ranks first in the majors in wOBA on the road. The Mariners bats have been quieter over the last week, but a deeper inspection shows the reason why. Seattle is dead last in the majors with a very low .208 batting average on balls in play in the last week. The Mariners are still hitting it well but it has been finding gloves. This is still a good offense.

The Athletics have a lot of young talent on offense. Kurtz, Rooker, and Soderstrom are the best of the bunch. Logan Evans has a 3.64 ERA this year, but he has an expected ERA of 5.50. He has been very fortunate and this is a tough park.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* A great pitching matchup in Milwaukee tonight. Matthew Boyd has a 0.55 ERA and a 1.60 FIP in his last five starts. He has just 3 walks and 29 strikeouts in that five game stretch. Boyd has been amazingly consistent all season.

Jacob Misiorowski has been fantastic in general this season, but he has been lights out at home. He has a home ERA of 0.56 and a wOBA allowed of just .198. He is striking out more than 12 batters every nine innings.

Though both teams have hit pretty well of late, the Cubs have seen 7 of their last 11 finish under this total. The Brewers have seen 5 of their last 9 finish below the total.

I think both pitchers pitch well in this one and it stays lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brandon Woodruff has come back from injury and he's been absolutely dominating opposing hitters. Woodruff has 0 walks and 23 strikeouts in his three games back from injury. Woodruff has a 13.1% swinging strike rate, and he's been working from ahead in the count consistently.

Eury Perez is a really talented young starter for the Marlins. Perez has a 1.17 ERA and a 1.92 FIP in his last four starts. Perez has multiple plus pitches and his breaking stuff has great movement on it.

John Bacon is the home plate umpire here. The under is 28-12 in his last 40 games behind home plate. He has a high strikes called rate. He has a 3.22 strikeout/walk ratio since the start of 2024. He's a pitcher friendly umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Connecticut Sun are hosting the Golden State Valkyries in a rare early Sunday afternoon game. Golden State will be playing at what would be 10 am on their body clock as they go from the West Coast to the East Coast. 

The Sun are coming off a very high scoring 101-86 game against the LA Sparks in their last game. The Sparks play fast and have some of the highest scoring games in the WNBA on a consistent basis. That game going well over the total has given us some value in this one.

Golden State plays at the slowest pace of any team in the WNBA. The Valkyries have been a defensive minded team all season long.

The very early start times have trended under in the WNBA, and that has been even more the case on Sunday games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are the top two teams in the CFL in terms of points per game allowed on defense. Montreal is also first in the CFL in yards per game allowed. These are two defensive minded teams. 

Montreal's Davis Alexander is out for this game. That means they will turn to a backup quarterback. I would expect more running of the football here, which should be a positive for the under. Additionally, the passing game will be slowed by one of their key receivers being out for this game.

Three of the last four meetings between these two have stayed under this total including a 19-19 tie in their last game. I think this one stays lower scoring too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Guardians have had some horrible batted ball luck in the last month. As a team, Cleveland has a BABIP of just .237 in the last 30 days. The second lowest BABIP is the Dodgers at .257 during the last 30 days. 

Cleveland's offense has finally fired up in recent games though. The Guardians offense has scored 6 runs or more in six of their last seven games. They have been lead by Jose Ramirez, who has been smashing the cover off the ball.

Zach Eflin starts here for the Orioles. He's had a really bad season, and he is coming off the injured list and is expected to be limited. The Orioles bullpen is one of the worst in the majors, and their middle relief will see a lot of action in this one. 

Slade Cecconi has struggled at home, and the Orioles offense has been much better against right handed pitching than lefties.

The weather is warming up in Cleveland and the ball should be carrying better at Progressive Field with a game time temperature around 86 degrees. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Rich Hill is expected to make the start here for the Kansas City Royals against his first team, the Chicago Cubs. Rich Hill is 45 years old and has struggled badly in the minor leagues so far this year. Hill has had a terrible 1.619 WHIP in Triple A this season. Hill had a 5.41 ERA in the majors two years ago in his last time as a starter in the big leagues. I don't expect him to be the solution for the Royals.

The Chicago Cubs have a top five offense in baseball. Chicago is a team that should put a lot of pressure on Hill and have baserunners throughout in this one.

The Kansas City offense has finally heated up of late. They have scored 7 runs or more in three of their last four games.

The wind is blowing out about 10 mph on a warm day at Wrigley Field here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* MacKenzie Gore has taken that next step this year. Gore is striking out 11.26 batters per nine innings. He has a 2.91 FIP on the season. Gore has a 2.39 ERA at home this year. Gore has a sparkling .240 weighted on base average allowed at home on the season. 

Nick Pivetta has a 2.88 ERA and a 3.10 FIP on the season. Pivetta has been much better in day games than night games in his career. Pivetta has a 3.70 career ERA in day games (5.05 in night games). 

Gore also has an ERA nearly a full run lower in day games in his career.

These two offenses are very inconsistent, and they are up against very good starters here.

Brian O'Nora is a major strike caller as the home plate umpire. He has called more than 65% of pitches a strike both this year and last season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees offense is first in the majors in weighted on base average for the year overall. Atlanta's offense has underachieved for the season as a whole, but the Braves have scored at least 4 runs in six straight games. They have scored 6 runs or more in four of those six contests.

Joey Wentz starts for the Braves here. Wentz is a subpar bullpen pitcher who is being thrown in for a rare start here. Wentz has a high walk rate and allows a bunch of baserunners. The Braves bullpen isn't deep either.

Will Warren starts for the Yankees. Warren has been great at home, but on the road he has a 6.75 ERA and a .353 weighted on base average allowed. 

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire in this one. He's one of the best over umpires in the majors in his long term history. He consistently has carried a very low strikes called percentage and a low strikeout/walk ratio. He is a hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I do not like to make it a habit of betting an under this low. In this case, I'll do it because of a few key factors.

Jacob Degrom and Framber Valdez are elite pitchers who are in great form. Degrom has a 2.19 ERA and a 2.25 FIP in his last six starts. He has a wOBA allowed of just .249 this season. Valdez has a 2.15 ERA and a 2.71 FIP in his last 10 starts. That includes a poor start in his most recent outing (Dodgers). Valdez has a 1.83 ERA at home this season.

The Astros are elite against left handed pitching, but they are league average or a little worse against right handed pitching. The Rangers are 26th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

These bullpens are both in the top six in the majors in FIP so far this year. They have a good amount of depth.

Phil Cuzzi is one of the best under umpires in the business. The under is 62-41 in his last 103 games behind home plate. He has a very high strikeout/walk ratio year after year and is clearly a strike caller. Both of these veterans should be able to take advantage of this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Pirates are 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The Pirates offense is easily dead last in the majors in the last 30 days in ISO, so they aren't showing much power at all. 

Joe Ryan is in the top 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average according to Baseball Savant. Ryan is in the top 13% of all pitchers in strikeout percentage and in the top 10% of all pitchers in fewest walks. His fastball has a ton of movement on it, and I think he can shut down the Pirates here.

Paul Skenes is already among the very best pitchers in baseball. Skenes is in the top 4% of all pitchers in expected ERA and he has a 1.94 ERA on the season. Skenes hasn't allowed a run in his last 10 innings pitched, and he has 1 walk and 15 strikeouts in those outings.

The Twins offense is 22nd in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days.

Both bullpens are clearly above average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mitchell Parker has been getting crushed of late. Parker has a 5.81 ERA and a 5.63 FIP in his last 5 starts. For the season, Parker has a 5.66 road ERA and his weighted on base average allowed on the road is a sky high .338. He is in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in baseball in exit velocity allowed. 

The Washington Nationals have seen 11 of their last 12 games get to a total of 9 runs or more. The offense has been improving of late behind Abrams and Wood. The Nationals bullpen has been getting smashed.

The Brewers offense is top 5 in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. Quinn Priester had a 3.59 ERA, but his FIP is up at 4.21 and he appears due for regression to the mean. DL Hall will open for him tonight.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Randy Vasquez starts for the Padres, and I feel he is due for some major regression. Vasquez has a 3.79 ERA and a 5.78 expected ERA. He has an extremely low batting average on balls in play allowed of just .245. In his last five games it is a ridiculously low .216. Vasquez is clearly getting fortunate. He is bottom 1% of all pitchers in baseball in whiff rate and strikeout rate. He is bottom five percent in the majors in expected ERA. 

Eduardo Rodriguez is an inconsistent starting pitcher. He is coming off a very poor start. He is also backed by a bottom five bullpen in the majors in Arizona. The Padres offense has been a bit better against left handed pitching.

I see both teams getting plenty of scoring opportunities in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Zac Gallen has struggled badly this year. Gallen has a 5.45 ERA and a 4.97 FIP on the season. He has a 6.29 ERA and a 5.64 FIP in his last ten outings. Gallen ranks in the bottom eight percent of all pitchers in the majors in hard hit baseballs so far this year. He also has struggled badly against the Padres in his career, and he has been much worse this year than he has been the majority of his career.

Yu Darvish comes off the injured list in this one. Darvish has a terrible history against this Diamondbacks lineup. Darvish has allowed a .360 weighted on base average in a large sample size of 177 plate appearances.

Arizona is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks bullpen is a bottom six or eight  bullpen in the majors right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox are third in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Boston faces a subpar left hander in Austin Gomber here. His numbers on the road are nearly as bad as his numbers at Coors in his career. Gomber is a low strikeout guy, and this is tough conditions. 

Richard Fitts struggled in the minor leagues this year, and now in the majors he has a 4.50 ERA and a 5.94 FIP. Fitts has had a lot of trouble with the long ball in his career even through the minors.

Fenway Park is one of the places where the weather matters the most. The weather for tonight calls for 83 degrees and winds blowing out about 10 or 11 mph during this game. That should really help the hitters a lot. Fenway has been very good to over bettors in these conditions in the long run.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sutter Park is a very hitter friendly park. In fact, in Baseball's Savant Park Factor ratings has it tied with Coors Field so far this season in park factor. This is clearly a great park for the hitters. The ball is flying extremely well in this small park. 

Hayden Birdsong has a 7.54 ERA and a 6.40 FIP in his last five starts. He has 16 walks and just 22 strikeouts in those five starts. Birdsong is giving up a ton of hard contact in his last few starts. This is a really dangerous park to do that.

Lopez starts for the Athletics. He has been solid, but the Giants have hit the ball much better of late, and I don't trust the Athletics bullpen behind Lopez either.

A total of 10 here for mediocre or below pitchers is good enough for me to look toward the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs are expected to have a bullpen game here with Drew Pomeranz being the starter. Pomeranz won't be around for very long, and Jordan Wicks is expected to get a decent amount of time here. Wicks has struggled quite a bit in his time in the majors in the last couple years. The Cubs middle relief isn't very strong.

Matthew Liberatore has had a good season, but this Cubs lineup is a top five lineup in baseball. Liberatore pitched well against them at home recently,  but the conditions will be different here.

Wrigley Field is a place where the weather makes a world of difference. The wind blowing out at Wrigley is great for over bettors, and that is even more the case when the temperature is hot as well. The weather for Saturday calls for low 90's with the wind blowing out at 12 mph. The ball should be carrying extremely well in this one.

With winds blowing out at least 7 mph and temperatures of 70 degrees or warmer the over is 52-30 in the last 82 games at Wrigley. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sandy Alcantara is in terrible form this year. Alcantara has a 6.98 ERA on the season. He ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA, expected batting average, and whiff percentage. He is getting hit hard regularly, and his strikeout rate is way down from a few years ago.

Milwaukee ranks top three in the majors in most of the major offensive categories for the last 30 days. The Brewers have gotten great contributions out of Sal Fralick and Brice Turang. William Contreras and Christian Yelich are stars as well. 

Quinn Priester has a good ERA this year, but under the surface there are some concerning signs. His FIP is quite a bit higher than his ERA, and his strikeout rate is running low. His expected batting average is in the bottom 40% of all pitchers in the majors. 

The Marlins are hitting the ball well of late. Edwards is a good leader for them, and Stowers is really coming into his own as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Coors Field day games in the heat have trended extremely high scoring in the long run. Blindly betting overs on totals of 11.5 or lower at Coors in day games has hit better than 58% in the last five years. 

Kyle Freeland has a 7.11 ERA and a .423 weighted on base average at Coors Field this year. The Houston Astros have a top three offense in the majors against left handed pitching. This should be a tough one for him.

Brandon Walter has been good so far this year, but this is a big test. Walter has a tendency to give up too many home runs, and these conditions are tough. Walter hasn't pitched anywhere similar to Coors Field.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Giants start Hayden Birdsong in this one. Birdsong is a youngster with plenty of promise, but he has proven streaky in his short career. He is up against a really tough lineup in a hitter friendly ballpark here. The Diamondbacks are second in the majors in runs per game at home. Chase Field is a top three hitter friendly park in the majors according to Baseball Savant's park factor ratings. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks start Zac Gallen here. Gallen has been in really bad form. Gallen has 7.04 ERA and a 6.59 FIP in his last eight starts. Gallen ranks in the bottom 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. He has allowed 13 HR's in his last 46 innings pitched. Gallen has allowed 4 runs or more in seven of his last eight starts.

Chase Field should help out here and these two starters are in poor form.

Take the over in this one.

*3 Star Play Under* It's Canada Day and we have an early start time for this one. Max Fried and Kevin Gausman are matched up against each other in this one.

Max Fried has had one bad start all season, and that was against the LA Dodgers loaded lineup. Fried has five starts since that start, and he has a 1.91 ERA and a 2.45 FIP in those starts. He has only 5 walks and 34 strikeouts in those five outings. Fried has great career numbers against the Blue Jays lineup as well.

Kevin Gausman has been a bit up and down, but he has elite swing and miss stuff. He can walk too many at times, but the home plate umpire here should help. 

Both bullpens are clearly above average.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire, and he has been the most consistent strike caller and under umpire in the majors for the last decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners have been amazing offensively on the road, but they still play in one of the toughest ballparks in the majors for hitters. Seattle averages a full run per game less at home vs. on the road. 

George Kirby has started the throw the ball better of late. Kirby came back slowly from an injury, but in his last five starts he has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.30 xFIP. That includes one poor start in Chicago where the wind was howling out at Wrigley Field. Kirby is a good starter in the long run, and he is up against a very weak offense.

Michael Wacha has been consistently very good this year. Wacha has a 3.33 ERA and a 3.60 FIP. Wacha does a nice job limiting hard contact.

The Royals have seen 6 of their last 8 games stay under this low total. In a pitcher's park with two solid starters, I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox are 23rd in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are 5th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching this season. They are up against a mediocre in Eric Lauer in this one. 

Walker Buehler has been getting ripped this season overall, but he has been significantly worse in recent outings. Buehler has 10.14 ERA and a 8.13 FIP in his last five starts. Buehler is walking a lot of people, and he is giving up the long ball way too frequently.

Toronto's offense has been swinging the bat much better in recent weeks. Boston had been struggling a bit on offense of late, but they just put up 15 runs yesterday.

Fenway Park is one where the weather matters a lot and the wind is blowing out about 10 mph on a warm day in Boston here. 

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here, and he has one of the lowest strikes called percentages year after year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Spencer Schwellenbach is an underrated starting pitcher. Schwellenbach has a great combination of an ability to create swings and misses and not walk many batters at all. He is walking just 1.48 batters per nine innings. He has a chase rate that is in the top 4% of all pitchers in the majors. He has a 3.21 ERA on the year, and he has been even better at home. 

Jesus Luzardo had two really bad outings a few games ago. He was tipping his pitches. Now that he has taken care of that, Luzardo has been back to pitching very well. For the season, Luzardo has a 4.08 ERA, but his FIP is an excellent 2.77. 

The Phillies and Braves are both in the bottom ten in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. These two offenses have had quite a few down days of late. They are up against tough customers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Edward Cabrera can be a streaky pitcher, but he's ultra talented and he is in great form right now. Cabrera has a 1.46 ERA in his last five starts. That includes a scoreless 5 and 2/3 innings against the Giants on May 31st. 

Logan Webb is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Webb has a 2.49 ERA and a 2.22 FIP on the season. He has a 1.35 ERA at home in this pitcher friendly ballpark in San Francisco.

These are two bottom ten offenses in the majors in the last month. They both run into a really good pitcher who is throwing the ball very well here.

I like the starting pitchers to have the advantage here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been the best offense in baseball in the last 30 days. Tampa Bay has been crushing the baseball. The Rays have gotten great performances from Aranda, Caminero, and Diaz to lead the offense this season. 

The Kansas City Royals offense hasn't been very good this year, but they are in a positive situation here.

Taj Bradley is a very streaky pitcher, and he has allowed 19 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. Bradley has been giving up a lot of hard contact, and that is a real cause for concern.

Kris Bubic is having a good season, but he has tailed off a bit in recent starts. This is a tough matchup.

The weather here is a factor too. A game time temperature of about 90 degrees with winds of 8 or 9 mph blowing out should help the batters. This weather at Kaufman Stadium has really helped over bettors through the years.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are third in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Chicago Cubs are fourth in the majors in wOBA overall. These are two good offenses. 

The first two games in this series have finished 9-4 and 10-7. The hot weather and heavy winds blowing out are the perfect conditions for an over and a nice boost to the batters here. 

Overs at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out at 8 mph or more and a temperature above 75 degrees have an ROI of better than 15% in the last 15 years. 

Logan Gilbert is a good pitcher, but this is a difficult spot for him and he isn't quite 100 percent from his recent injury. Colin Rea is a below average starter, and I think the Mariners can get to him plenty here.

The umpire in this one is Edwin Moscoso who is one of the best over umpires in baseball. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers played a really high scoring second half that pushed the game a bit over the total in Game 5. There were a few things that stood out in that game. There were 37 offensive rebounds in that game. The two games before that had 19 and 16 offensive rebounds total. There were also 62 free throws in that game, and both teams made at least 80% of their free throws.

In the long run, NBA bettors taking the under in game 6 and game 7 of the playoffs have profited in a big way. It has been an even better angle when the home team is a small favorite or an underdog. When the home team is -2.5 to +10.5 the under is a whopping 65-32 with the average margin going under by more than 5.5 points. 

Tyrese Haliburton is a big question mark here. He's a huge key to the Pacers offense with his passing and scoring ability. 

This game should bring high intensity defense and I like it to stay lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been tremendous this year. Arizona is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are also tied for first in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.08 runs per game on the season.

Toronto is 11th in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Blue Jays offense has improved in recent weeks. The Blue Jays are 7th in OBP in the last 30 days.

Brandon Pfaadt has been bad this season. He ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA and expected batting average allowed. He also ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in hard hit percentage allowed. 

Chris Bassitt started the season on fire, but he has come back down to earth of late. Bassitt has a 4.50 ERA and a 4.55 FIP since May 1st. He has a 5.87 ERA and a 5.16 FIP in his last four starts.

The Blue Jays bullpen is average or slightly below average. The Diamondbacks bullpen is a bottom five bullpen in the majors.

Take the over.