*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State offense isn't the same without Dean Wade. Wade is a big man who can score in the post or step out and shoot or facilitate the offense. Kansas State becomes too guard-oriented without him. 

The Wildcats can still play elite defense without Wade. Kansas State ranks 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency (one spot ahead of Virginia). Bruce Weber's team is going to be easily the best defense UC Irvine has faced this year. In fact, Irvine hasn't gone against a team in the top 40 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

Kansas State's offense can be a mess without Wade, and UC Irvine has been very good defensively for several years under coach Russell Turner. UC Irvine ranks first in the nation in 2 point field goal percentage defense. 

Both teams play at an extremely slow tempo. This game tips off at 11 am local time, so this is an early start for these teams and that on the whole is a positive for the under.

This total is very low, but UC Irvine has played 8 games under this number this year. Kansas State has played 12 games under this number.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels and the Villanova Wildcats meet on Thursday night in Connecticut. 

Both of these teams play very slowly. In terms of average possession length, Villanova ranks 339th out of 353 teams. St. Mary's is even slower at 350th out of 353 teams. This game should be played in the halfcourt throughout.

St. Mary's has some impressive numbers at home this year on offense, but their road and neutral offensive efficiencies are much lower. The Gaels averaged 1.202 points per possession at home this year. They averaged 1.085 points per possession on the road. They averaged 1.077 points per possession on neutral courts. They are a long way from home in this one, and neutral courts like this one tend to lean toward the under.

Villanova ranks in the top 5 in most three point shots attempted. The Wildcats go against a St. Mary's defense who ranks 44th in 3 point field goal percentage defense. St. Mary's has ranked in the top 44 each of the last three years when it comes to defending beyond the arc.

Look for a low scoring contest thanks in large part to the tempo this game will be played at. Both teams also rank in the top 80 in the nation in defending without fouling, so barring a ref show there shouldn't be too many free throws in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Phoenix rank 8th in the country in quickest possession length on offense. Green Bay always runs and they'll continue to do so here. 

East Tennessee State is right in the middle of the pack at 181st. The Bucs have shown the willingness to run against the likes of Georgia Southern, VMI, and Western Carolina this year. Green Bay will be the fastest paced team they have played all year.

This is a small postseason tournament, where overs have done exceptionally well in the first couple rounds in the past decade. Why? The pace usually picks up because there is less on the line.

East Tennessee State should dominate on the glass against a Green Bay team that gives up second chance points by the bunches.

This is several points too low in what should be a really high tempo contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both Grand Canyon and West Virginia like to push the pace. There are a lot of teams in their leagues who prefer to slow the game down, but now they get to go up against another team who likes to run.

Grand Canyon was an elite defense last year. They aren't this season. Grand Canyon was 3rd in the country in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 149th this season.

West Virginia picked up the pace quite a bit in their last few games. They have played 6 of their last 7 games to a pace of 71 possessions or quicker. Seven of their last eight games have finished at 153 points or higher.

This is a small postseason tournament, where overs have done exceptionally well in the first couple rounds in the past decade. Why? The pace usually picks up because there is less on the line.

Look for an uptempo game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers go to Brown to take on the Brown Bears from the Ivy League. This is a CBI contest.

Both of these teams have pretty good defensive numbers on the year, but these defenses aren't as good as they look. Why? Both have played a bunch of weak offenses. UAB has faced the 276th strongest offenses in the country according to KenPom (compared to 125th best defenses). Brown has faced the 249th toughest slate of offenses (185th defenses). Essentially, both teams played in leagues where they didn't have to go up against many good offenses.

This is a small postseason tournament, where overs have done exceptionally well in the first couple rounds in the past decade. Why? The pace usually picks up because there is less on the line.

Brown ranks 40th in overall tempo in the country (out of 353 teams), so they really push the pace. This is a very low total in a small postseason game with one team pushing the pace that much.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* This is a low total for an early smaller postseason tournament contest. These games are generally much faster paced than the regular season contests. 

This is an NIT game, and they have changed the rules for this year's NIT as an experiment. The 3 point line is a bit farther back (FIBA distance), but the shot clock resets to only 20 on an offensive rebound. Additionally, on the 2nd foul in the last two minutes teams will shoot two shots no matter how many fouls they have committed in that period. There will be no 1 and 1 attempts. Fouls will be reset every 10 minutes and after 5 fouls teams will shoot two shots.

These rule changes on the whole favor more scoring and a quicker pace. 

Creighton has been really efficient at home this year. Creighton saw 15 of their 17 games at home go over this posted total. 

Loyola Chicago ranked 31st in effective field goal percentage defense last year, but they are only 176th in that metric this season. They rank 293rd in 3 point defense, and Creighton shoots the 13th highest percentage of 3 pointers of any team in the country. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd love to run. Marshall ranks 7th in the nation in tempo. The Thundering Herd have gotten more efficient on offense as the season has moved along. 

IUPUI ranks 120th in tempo, so they play relatively quickly as well. The Jaguars rank 320th in the nation in 3 point percentage defense. Marshall ranks in the top 40 in the country in most 3 pointers attempted. The Thundering Herd should get some easy looks from long range.

IUPUI's biggest strength on offense is their ability to grab offensive rebounds. Marshall's single biggest weakness is defensive rebounding. They rank 338th out of 353 teams in the country in defensive rebounding percentage.

Overs have done really well in the early rounds of the smaller postseason tournaments. They have done especially well in games with two teams with a winning percentage under 60% for the season. This game fits that system.

Jon Elmore needs 20 points to become Marshall's all time scoring leader, and that should lead Marshall to push the pace even more here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers are without C.J. McCollum here. McCollum has a knee injury. Without McCollum, the Blazers lose a major offensive weapon. Portland doesn't have the great second scoring option in the backcourt now. On other hand, McCollum's defensive stats have never been very good, and they might be a bit better on defense with him on the bench.

Indiana is without their best scorer in Oladipo as well. The Pacers have scored 108 points or less in six straight games. They have scored 105 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. The Pacers slow the game down, and they'll try to avoid a high scoring contest here.

Portland's tempo is slightly below league average, and without McCollum it should be tough for them to be as efficient on offense.

This is a game between two good teams late in the year. That's a solid under angle in the NBA in the past decade.

The under is 23-8 in the Pacers last 31 games vs a team with a 60% or higher winning percentage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UT Arlington Mavericks and the Georgia State Panthers meet in the Sun Belt Tournament final to decide who will represent the conference in the NCAA Tournament.

Georgia State plays a unique zone defense that can be a very tricky matchup. UT Arlington isn't efficient against a man offense (26th percentile in the country), but they are even worse against a zone defense (15th percentile). Georgia State isn't very good in transition defense, but Arlington ranks in the 2nd percentile in transition offense.

Georgia State has a solid offense, but I've been impressed with UT Arlington's ability to switch up their defenses. They have a solid man defense and a solid zone defense. The Mavericks do struggle with turnovers on the offensive end, and I see quite a few turnovers there.

Lakefront Arena is the venue here and the under has done well here. The under is 32-19 in the 51 postseason games played here.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies and Eastern Washington Eagles play for a berth in the NCAA Tournament tonight. Both of their games in the regular season played to a pretty slow pace, but the shooting was good. In this game, I would expect the pace to slow down some. After all, this game means far more than those regular season matchups did.

These are two of the top defenses in the Big Sky. This is a game played at a large arena in CenturyLink at Boise. This is a positive for the under as well.

Look for a tightly played game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UT Arlington Mavericks like to slow the game down. They are the second ranked defense in the Sun Belt. 

Georgia Southern plays extremely fast, but they aren't always efficient on offense. Georgia Southern is the third ranked defense in the Sun Belt. 

The two regular season meetings between these two teams finished at 139 and 141 points. This game is the semifinal game in the Sun Belt Tournament, and there is a lot more on the line than there was in either of the first two meetings. 

This game is also played at Lakefront Arena, which is noted for being a difficult shooting backdrop.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Cal State Fullerton won in overtime yesterday against UC Davis. UCSB won by 3 over Cal State Northridge. These two teams both played to a slower pace than their season average. These games mean more now. If they lose they go home. That typically leads to a slower pace.

Cal State Fullerton is 280th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are averaging only 0.98 points per possession this year. UCSB is solid on offense, but they rank 314th in the nation in tempo. 

Cal State Fullerton ranked 2nd in the Big West in defensive efficiency. UCSB ranked 4th. 

Honda Center is the venue here, and this is a massive hockey arena. These teams aren't accustomed to the spacious backdrop and that has caused massive shooting problems from Big West teams here in the past. The under is a whopping 33-8 in the last 41 Big West Tournament games here with a total of 131 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Bonaventure Bonnies have been excellent on defense of late. How good? The Bonnies have allowed 58 points or less in six of their last eight games. They haven't allowed more than 64 points in any of those eight games.

George Mason's offense has been struggling late in the season. George Mason scored just 37 points on VCU recently, and they struggled to a 61-57 win over a bad George Washington defense yesterday.

The two meetings between these teams this year were played at a slow tempo. The first game finished at 121 points. The second game went to 135 points because St. Bonaventure made 11/19 three pointers and averaged 1.25 points per possession. They average only 1.01 points per possession and this game is on a neutral floor.

It is win or go home time for both teams. The under generally does well on neutral court games like this one. St. Bonaventure has played six straight games under this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Hawaii and Long Beach State met twice during the regular season. One game finished with a total of 131 points. The second game finished at 147 points with some extremely good 3 point shooting numbers.

Hawaii doesn't like to run as much as Long Beach State, and I think Hawaii has the guards to slow this game down and turn it into more of a halfcourt style game.

This game is played at the Honda Center. You won't find a better under venue, especially for a small conference like this. The Big West schools are small, and they aren't accustomed to playing in a big venue like this one. This is a hockey arena and the shooting backdrop is very tricky for basketball. The under is a whopping 30-7 in the last 37 games here with a total of 131 or higher.

With a total set this high and two teams fighting hard to play another day in a hockey arena, I have to take the under here.

Take the under.

*4 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers meet on Thursday night. 

Oklahoma City played last night and picked up a win against Brooklyn. Their defense was very good in that game, but the offense wasn't very good outside of Russell Westbrook who had a great game. 

The Oklahoma City offense has struggled in the past ten games. The Thunder rank 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten. They have still been solid on defense though up in 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that time.

Indiana ranks 26th in tempo, and they aren't going to want to get out and run with Oklahoma City here.

Two good teams squaring off late in the season is a solid under angle in the long run, and I see several reasons to like this one to stay under this fairly high number.

The under is 42-19 in OKC's last 61 games against a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 21-8 in the Pacers last 29 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 35-16 in Indiana's last 51 home games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both UC Davis and Cal State Fullerton are very inefficient on offense. Both teams are very good on defense. UC Davis ranks 307th in offensive efficiency in the country. Fullerton ranks 288th. UC Davis is 156th in defensive efficiency. Fullerton ranks 115th on defense.

These two teams played twice in the regular season. The final scores were 120 and 125 points total. They were hard fought defensive battles.

This game is played at the Honda Center. You won't find a better under venue, especially for a small conference like this. The Big West schools are small, and they aren't accustomed to playing in a big venue like this one. This is a hockey arena and the shooting backdrop is very tricky for basketball. The under is a whopping 30-7 in the last 37 games here with a total of 131 or higher.

With this game meaning more than their two regular season games, the tempo is likely to slow down a bit as well.

Take the under.

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Big West Tournament gets underway on Thursday. UCSB and Cal State Northridge will tip things off at noon pacific.

This game is played at the Honda Center. You won't find a better under venue, especially for a small conference like this. The Big West schools are small, and they aren't accustomed to playing in a big venue like this one. This is a hockey arena and the shooting backdrop is very tricky for basketball. The under is a whopping 30-7 in the last 37 games here with a total of 131 or higher.

Cal State Northridge has slowed down their pace here late in the season. UCSB is one of the slowest paced teams in the league. While both are solid offensively, this is a really high number in this arena for an early start time.

Both of these teams rank in the top five in the Big West at defending without fouling. This number is several points too high.

Take the under.

*This line has moved a bit since I first played this game. I would play this game as a 5 star Top play down to 145 and as a 4 star play at anything below that. Thank you* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers have been mixing in zone defense of late, and it has really helped them. Xavier in the bottom 20% of the country in man defense, but their zone defense ranks in top 1/3 of all zone defenses in the country. 

Creighton is excellent against man defense. Creighton ranks 97th percentile according to Synergy Sports against man defense. The Blue Jays have struggled against zone though. They rank in the 36th percentile against zone defenses. 

Creighton tends to play a little bit fast. The Blue Jays rank 123rd in the nation in tempo. Xavier ranks 310th in tempo, and they'll work to slow this game down. The two regular season meetings were both very low scoring games, and Xavier was able to dictate the pace. I don't see any reason that they can't do the same here. 

Xavier's defense improved drastically late in the year. During a six game losing stretch in the middle of the season, they allowed 74 points or more in 5 of those 6 games. In their last 7 games, Xavier went 6-1. During that time, they didn't allow more than 73 points in a game.  They allowed 61 points or less in three of those games. 

Madison Square Garden has been a tremendous under court for many years. It's a difficult shooting backdrop. Both regular season meetings stayed under this total by more than 10 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star CBB Total DOMINATION* The Providence Friars are different than all the other teams in the Big East. Providence switches up their defense often. Ed Cooley does a good job keeping opposing offenses uncomfortable with these changes. Providence wants to slow the game down and make it sloppy.

Butler ranks 7th in the Big East in tempo. Providence ranks 8th in tempo in this league. Neither one of these teams want to push the pace much. 

These two teams have played each other twice in the last two weeks. I tend to think that helps the defenses since they have a lot of recent video to look at the opponents offensive sets. 

This game will be played at Madison Square Garden. It's been the most consistent under venue in college basketball. The under is 67-45-2 in postseason NCAA BB games at MSG. The under improves to 57-33 (62.2%) when the total is 127.5 or higher in a postseason game here.

The fact that these two just played a high scoring game against each other gives us some line value. This game means more to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams meet at 9:30 am local time. This is an extremely early start time in a gym that neither team has played in all year. It's a bigger arena than these teams are accustomed to as well.

Early start times are a help for the under in general, because it changes routines. A bigger venue that is new to everyone is another big plus.

The two games during the regular season between these two went to 144 points and 130 points. Neither of them were played very fast.

This game means more than those games did because it is a win or go home tournament.

Take the under.

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The LA Clippers host the Portland Blazers on Tuesday night. The Clippers are coming off an offensive outburst last night over the Boston Celtics. Portland has had several days off to prepare for this game. 

In their last ten games, the Clippers rank fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Blazers rank 14th in that time in defensive efficiency. 

Portland likely tries to slow the game down a bit here. The Blazers rank only 19th in the NBA in pace in their last ten games.

There is a strong totals system regarding conference games in play here:

-A total of 227 or higher

-Game 5 of the season or later

-Public bet percentage on the under of 48% or less

-Total has either stayed flat from the open or gone up.

The under is a whopping 82-36 (69.5%) since 2005 in this system. This game fits the system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northeastern and College of Charleston both prefer to play at a slow tempo. Northeastern ranks 250th in the country in tempo. Charleston ranks 290th in the country in tempo.

The two regular season games between these two finished regulation with 129 and 138 points. This game means much more since it is a one loss and you are done tournament format here. 

It is also at a neutral site where the shooting backdrop is more difficult. 

These two played at this site in the tournament last year and they finished regulation at 130 points. 

I would expect a pretty slow pace here, and I think this total is a few points too high considering how much is riding on this game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints have played 19 games against MAAC opponents this year. Two of those 19 games have gone over this total. Siena ranks as the slowest paced team in the country using up 21.5 seconds per possession on offense. The Saints know they need to slow the game down to have their best chance of winning against a good offense in Iona.

Both regular season meeting between these two stayed well under the total.

The last time these two met the posted total was 135. Why would the total jump 7.5 points when this game is an even more important matchup? I thought this game should be lined around 136 or so- I see a big edge here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves and Northern Iowa Panthers meet today and the winner goes to the NCAA Tournament. Enterprise Center has been a massive under arena, and the MVC is a defensive-minded league. I don't see any reason to expect anything other than a defensive slugfest in the final game in the MVC Tournament here.

Both of these teams prefer to slow the game down. Both teams can also go through long scoring droughts. With the poor shooting backdrop in St. Louis (this is a hockey arena), and the very high stakes on the line here, I look for a tight low scoring game.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies will be without Alterique Gilbert here. He sustained an injury in the Huskies last game. He has been the focal point of the offense of late. He is averaging 12.6 points per game. Jalen Adams has been out for several weeks now. He is listed as doubtful on Sunday again. UConn's offense has drastically slowed their pace of late. The Huskies have played five games in a row under their season average in pace. Their offensive efficiency has been below average in five of their last six as well.

East Carolina ranks 334th in the country in offensive efficiency. This is a pretty high total for a game where the Huskies might be without their two best offensive players and the other team is a very weak offensive team.

The first meeting between these two teams got to only 128 points total. I think East Carolina will work hard on defense here, and I don't think the Pirates will be very efficient against a UConn defense that plays hard from start to finish. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons play a very rare noon eastern start time contest on Sunday. These games have leaned pretty strongly to the under in the past to begin with, and in this one I like the angle even more with the clocks moving forward. This is essentially an 11 am start time on the body clock. 

Detroit has easily played at the slowest pace in the NBA in their last ten games. The Bulls rank in the bottom ten in the league in tempo as well. I don't think they'll be pushing the pace in this early game. These two just played each other as well, and that should help the under.

I would expect a bit of a sloppy game here with some scoring droughts. The last game between these two stayed under the total despite some good shooting numbers. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Colorado Bears have been the best defense in the Big Sky Conference this year. Northern Colorado is allowing only 0.973 points per possession in the league. No one else is allowing less than 1 point per possession. 

Northern Colorado is also playing at the slowest pace of any team in the Big Sky. They are averaging 19.0 seconds per possession. Most in this league play much quicker. The Bears are winning games with defense and ball control. Northern Colorado has kept 14 of their 19 games in the league under this total.

Northern Arizona is a slightly slower than average paced team. They aren't good either. In the first meeting between these two, N Colorado won 63-48 and it was played to a very slow pace of 60 possessions.

Northern Colorado needs a win here to stay tied atop the Big Sky standings. This is the final game of the regular season. I would expect the intensity to be high from them. Northern Arizona is likely to have a hard time scoring. Northern Colorado should dictate the pace too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under is a whopping 33-14 in the last 47 neutral site games at the Times Union Center in Albany where this one will be played. 

Quinnipiac is a good 3 point shooting team, but shooting a bunch of 3's in a tough shooting venue could lower their efficiency a bit here.

Monmouth relies largely on transition offense and getting to the free throw line, but Quinnipiac is first in the league in transition defense and defending without fouling.

There has been a line move up this morning and I'll take the extra points and go with the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles host the Georgia State Panthers in what is being billed as one of the biggest games ever for these two teams. These teams are rivals and games between these two are always spirited. This time there is even more on the line though.

Georgia State and Georgia Southern are tied at the top of the Sun Belt (Texas State is as well). The winner of this game will at least share the Sun Belt regular season title.

Georgia State is playing a zone defense, and that is key here. Georgia Southern's offense has been excellent against man defense this year, but they aren't very good against zone defenses. According to Synergy Sports, GA Southern is in the top 11% of offenses in the nation against man defenses. They rank in only the 47th percentile in zone offense. GA State will play a zone here.

Georgia State relies heavily on the 3 point shot on offense. GA Southern is allowing opponents to shoot only 31.2% from three in the Sun Belt. 

These are two quality Sun Belt teams, and both of these teams have quality defenses. They do play fast, but in a game like this that means so much I expect it slow down a bit and the defensive intensity will go up even more.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* For much of the Big 12 portion of their schedule, Oklahoma State was slowing the tempo to a crawl. With the end of the season near, and the games meaning far less now, the Cowboys have sped up drastically in their last three games. 
Oklahoma State has gotten a little faster in each of their last three games, and all three of those games have been more than 3 possessions faster than their average for the rest of the conference schedule. Interestingly, they haven't really played fast paced teams during that time either. The Cowboys have decided to pick the pace back up.
West Virginia always prefers to play at a fast pace. The Mountaineers are great on the offensive glass, and that's an area where I think they have an advantage against an Oklahoma State frontcourt that isn't very good on the defensive boards.
West Virginia commits a bunch of fouls and gets to the line a lot as well. Earlier this year, these two teams met when Oklahoma State was slowing the pace down more and the final was 85-77 largely because of the amount of trips to the line. 
West Virginia's last four games have gone past this total.
This is a late season game between two teams with very little to play for. It's the last regular season game and I would expect an up and down contest.
Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Texas State and UT Arlington rank as the #1 and #2 defense in the Sun Belt. There are a lot of bad defenses in the Sun Belt. These two teams are very solid on defense. They also rank as the slowest and second slowest team in terms of tempo. 

Texas State is tied for first place in the Sun Belt. They need a win here to share the Sun Belt title. 

UT Arlington and Texas State are rivals, so there is always plenty of intensity for this matchup.

The first meeting between these two was at 120 at the end of regulation, and the shooting numbers were actually slightly above average. The tempo was very slow the whole way.

I think this line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers need this game badly. They are right on the bubble right now. Clemson has had a hard time picking up those marquee wins. Syracuse isn't a great team, but they are a quality team and a win over them would help Clemson a lot.

Clemson's defense ranks 10th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Tigers scrap and claw on defense, and it should be hard for Syracuse to get many open looks here. The Orange rely on getting offensive boards and getting to the line, but Clemson is good at clearing defensive boards and they are solid at defending without fouling.

The biggest key here for me is Clemson's offense. Clemson shoots 33% from 3 point range. They aren't a good jump shooting team. They need to get into the paint. Syracuse plays that great matchup zone. Syracuse is second in the nation in blocked shots. They have some great rim protectors. Clemson ranks in the 57th percentile in offensive efficiency against man defenses. They rank only in the 26th percentile in offensive efficiency against zone defenses. This is the best zone defense they face.

A game that means a lot and offenses faced with a very tough defensive matchup.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd are an offensive juggernaut. Marshall wasn't clicking on offense as expected for most of the season, but that has changed recently. The Thundering Herd have scored 1.142 points per possession or higher in four straight contests after struggling to hit the 1 point per possession mark during a lot of the conference season.They have scored 85 points or more in those four contests. 

Florida Atlantic has been a unique team this year in that they have played to the pace of their opponents. The Owls have played some very slow paced games against the teams who slow the game down. They have played extremely fast paced games against FIU and Marshall though. 

The first meeting against Marshall was 96-84 Marshall win. It isn't likely to get that high again here, but this total is set too low.

This is the final game of the regular season and neither team has much of anything to play for other than pride. That has been good for over bettors at the end of the regular season in the past. Expect a very quick tempo here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* In the MVC Tournament, a total of 130.5 or higher is 40-16 in the last 56 games. Enterprise Center where these games are played for Arch Madness is a hockey arena and it is known for a bad shooting backdrop. The shooting numbers in these games are often very low.

Drake and Illinois State played twice during the regular season. Both regular season meetings stayed well under this total. 

Drake's DJ Wilkins was one of their best offensive players, and he will miss this game with a broken ankle. 

Drake is bothered by the zone defense that Illinois State mixes in. Illinois State hasn't been efficient on offense all season long.

At this venue with two teams who have matched up well defensively against each other, this number is too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iona Gaels have been known as a very high scoring game the last couple seasons. They are still good offensively this year, but they aren't nearly as good as they were the last two years. 

Iona has actually played 5 of their last 9 games below this total. They are up against a team who is terrible offensively and is stalling at every chance in this one as well.

St. Peter's is a whopping 17-2 under this total in their last 19 games. They have to slow this game down to have a chance, and I expect them to do this.

The first meeting between these teams finished at 108 points.

At this venue- the under is a whopping 71-37 when the total is set at 135.5 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Monmouth and Niagara meet here in a battle of two bad MAAC teams. The Times Union Center hosts this one. This has been one of the best under venues in all of college basketball of late. How good? The under is 89-47 in the last 136 games played here with a total of 127.5 or higher. Overall, the under is 32-11 in the last 43 games played here when it is a neutral site.

Bad teams in conference tournaments have been good under bets on these neutral courts. The offenses are inefficient and the defenses tend to clamp down a bit more when the game is more important. This is a win or go home game for both teams.

Niagara isn't good defensively, but they foul the least of any team in the conference. Monmouth has been very reliant on getting to the line to score. Niagara has slowed their tempo down late in the year, and I don't think they'll turn this into a track meet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Evansville has been very inefficient on offense this year. They have scored 65 points or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. Those have been at normal venues, and this game is at a neutral site with a very tough backdrop. Evansville shoots a bunch of 3's, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they miss a bunch of them here.

Illinois State has been running some zone defense of late, and Evansville ranks in the bottom 13% in the country in zone offense.

Illinois State has scored 67 points or fewer in nine straight games. The RedBirds aren't a good shooting team.

The Missouri Valley Conference has been playing at Enterprise Center for many years as part of Arch Madness. This was formerly known as Scottrade Center. This is a huge arena that is normally a hockey arena. It is noted for some poor shooting backdrops. 

The under has been terrific in neutral site games in the Missouri Valley Conference. How good? The under is a whopping 66-29 (69.5%) in the last 95 contests in the MVC when the total is 119.5 or higher. Most of these were at Enterprise Center. 

Neither of these teams get many second chance points. The venue is important here based on the historical numbers.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Valparaiso Crusaders have been terrible on offense this year. Valparaiso has seen 10 of their last 12 games go under this posted total. Valparaiso has averaged 0.92 points per possession or worse in 12 of their 18 league games this season. 

The Missouri Valley Conference has been playing at Enterprise Center for many years as part of Arch Madness. This was formerly known as Scottrade Center. This is a huge arena that is normally a hockey arena. It is noted for some poor shooting backdrops. 

The under has been terrific in neutral site games in the Missouri Valley Conference. How good? The under is a whopping 66-29 (69.5%) in the last 95 contests in the MVC when the total is 119.5 or higher. Most of these were at Enterprise Center. 

Valparaiso is expected to be without Ryan Fazekas, their best scorer in this game. 

Indiana State is very sloppy on offense as well. The Sycamores don't pass the ball well, and too much isolation basketball can be easier to defend.

Neither team gets many second chance opportunities. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs and San Diego State Aztecs meet on Wednesday night. These are two teams who are playing very well of late. Both of these teams are better defensively than they are on the offensive end.

Fresno State ranks 6th in the MWC in offensive efficiency. They are third in defensive efficiency. San Diego State is 7th in offensive efficiency. They are 2nd in defensive efficiency. 

San Diego State's defense has been tremendous of late. The Aztecs have held  7 of their last 10 opponents to less than 0.99 points per possession. They are giving up only 0.916 points per possession at home this season. Their length and athleticism should bother Fresno State here.

Six of San Diego State's last seven games have stayed under this total. 

Both of these teams have been struggling with turnovers on the offensive end. In a game with two solid defensive and a relatively slow pace, wasted possessions can really help the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'll start this off by saying I don't generally like playing extremely high overs, but this one shows enough value that I have to take it. My numbers show this game in the 183-183.5 range. 

FIU went to Marshall earlier this year and lost 105-97. There were a whopping 88 possessions in that game. 

When it comes to average possession length on offense, FIU is the fastest paced team in the nation. Marshall ranks 4th. That is out of 353 teams. 

This game is the second to last game for these teams and the end of the season often brings wide open and fast paced games from mediocre teams. I see no reason to expect anything other than an extremely quick tempo here.

Marshall's offense has been much better at home this year. They have also been hitting their stride of late. Marshall has averaged 1.20 points per possession or higher in three straight contests. The Thundering Herd have allowed 1.10 points per possession or higher in 5 of their last 6 games.

Both teams rank in the bottom 15 in the country in defensive rebounding so extra chances should be had here by both offenses. Both teams also foul a lot.

A very high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators have been a low scoring team all season. Game after game there has been steam on the over with this team, and yet more than 70% of the games have gone under the total.

Florida is 18-4 to the under on this number in their last 22 games. If you exclude overtime, they would be 19-3 to the under on this number.

Florida has clearly slowed down their pace even more of late. The Gators have played five straight games to at least a full possession slower than their season average. Florida has played 8 of their last 9 games below their season pace average.

LSU has slowed their tempo down of late as well. Of LSU's six slowest paced games this year, four of them have come in since mid-February.

This is a big game for both teams. LSU needs a win to keep pace with Tennessee in the SEC standings. Florida is on the bubble and needs big wins. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals host the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Sunday afternoon. Louisville is on an ugly stretch where they have lost 5 of their last 6. Notre Dame has been disappointing this year as well. 

The issue for both teams of late has been their offenses. Notre Dame has scored 61 points or fewer in 7 of their last 10 games. Louisville has scored 59 points or less in four straight games. 

Notre Dame is very good at slowing the pace down. They have kept ten straight games to a tempo of 65.7 possessions or fewer. Louisville ranks in the middle of the pack in tempo.

The Fighting Irish have played zone 1/3 of the time so far this year, and I have to think they'll try it in at least part of this game. Louisville has been miserable against zone defenses this season.

Notre Dame isn't what they normally are on offense. In fact, the Fighting Irish rank 320th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They shoot a bunch of 3's, and Louisville is only allowing opponents to shoot 29.8% from 3 in ACC action.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Charlotte Hornets host the Portland Blazers. The Blazers are in the middle of a long road trip, and they are coming off a hard fought loss to the Toronto Raptors on Friday night. 

This is a very early start time on a Sunday afternoon. Sunday has been the single best under day in the NBA in the long-term, and it isn't even close. These early Sunday games tilt slightly more toward the under than the rest of the contests.

Charlotte has had several high scoring games in a row, but that was against Brooklyn twice, Golden State, and Houston. Those teams have a lot of very high scoring contests. 

Portland ranks 23rd in tempo in their last 8 games. Charlotte ranks 21st in the NBA in tempo during that time. For two teams in the bottom ten of the NBA in tempo, this is a very high total.

The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 4-0 in Charlotte's last 4 vs. a team with a 60% or higher winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Blazers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. A 14-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Montana ranks first in the league in offensive efficiency. This is a conference where there isn't much defense played. Montana has sped up of late without Akoh healthy in the middle. Montana's forwards can really stretch the floor, and the guards have quickness to get in the lane.

Southern Utah gets to the free throw line more than any other team in the Big Sky Conference. Southern Utah should be able to get to the line plenty here. Montana will also get to the line plenty, since Southern Utah fouls a bunch on the defensive end. 

These teams played a very high scoring contest earlier this year. Montana has seen 11 of their 16 games go over this total in the conference. Southern Utah has seen 10 of 17 go over this total (3 of them fell only half a point below).

Look for a fast paced game where free throws put it over the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies defense has been tremendous this season. Craig Smith has really done an amazing job with this team. Utah State is 20th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Aggies rank in the top 4% of teams in the country in transition defense. That's important against a Nevada team that likes to try to get easy baskets in transition as often as they can.

Nevada was a great team on offense last year. They are very good, but not quite as efficient on offense this year. Nevada wasn't good on defense last year, but they are excellent on defense this season. Nevada went from 108th last year in defensive efficiency to 28th in defensive efficiency this year.

This is a huge game for both teams. Late in the season huge games where it means a lot to both teams lean fairly heavily toward the under in the long run.

Utah State has clearly slowed their pace down. They are playing nearly 7 possessions slower in conference play than they did in non-conference action.

A tight game here with two solid defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bethune-Cookman has been pushing the pace all season long. They rank 31st in the country in tempo. South Carolina State ranks 222nd in tempo. 

There are a couple things that make me like this play. First, South Carolina State has played to the pace of their opponent all year long. This is a team that has played very slowly against the slow paced MEAC teams and very fast against the fastest MEAC teams.

The first contest between these two finished 98-73. The tempo in that game was a blazing fast 76 possessions. Both teams are great on the offensive glass and both get to the free throw line a lot.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs are tied at the top of the Missouri Valley Conference. This is clearly a big game for them. In the big games late in the year, it tends to help the under because of improved defense.

Missouri State has been an under machine. The Bears have slowed their tempo drastically, and they have controlled the pace against everyone they have played in their last 10 games. Missouri State is using up almost 21 seconds of the shot clock on average.

Neither team gives up many offensive rebounds, and that is another clear plus for the under.

Take the under here.

*4 Star Play Over* The Gardner Webb Runnin' Bulldogs have clearly sped up their tempo of late. They are only using up 16.9 seconds of the shot clock on average. Gardner Webb has also become more efficient on offense. In 6 of their last 8 games, they have averaged 1.10 points per possession or better.

Longwood's defense has worsened of late. The Lancers are giving up points in bunches. Six of their last seven games have gone above this total.

Gardner has seen 6 of their last 8 games go above this total.

This is the last game for both teams and this game means little. I think we see a quick pace here. 

The first meeting between these two was at 152 at the end of regulation.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Illinois Salukis have been much more efficient offensively of late. The Salukis are consistently getting to the 1.05 points per possession mark or better, and that is impressive in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. 

Illinois State has been a disappointment this year. They have played faster in their last couple games. Southern Illinois isn't slowing things down as much now either.

In games between two teams with a 60% or lower win percentage in their last two games of the year, the over has hit at 55% in the last 10 years. With a total this low, the system is even stronger.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Portland Blazers and Toronto Raptors meet on Friday night in Toronto. Both of these teams have been playing good defense of late. Both teams rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last six games. Portland ranks only 22nd in tempo during that time as well.

This is a game between two quality teams late in the season. Simply playing the under from game 60 to game 80 of the regular season in the NBA when both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher has seen the under cash 57.5% of the time since 2005. This one fits this system. 

I think both of these teams are clearly good on offense, but many don't realize how good they are on defense. This total is a few points high, and in the late season in a matchup between two quality teams I'll go with the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Hofstra Pride have played six games in a row that went over this posted total. Hofstra is scoring at will on almost every team in the CAA. In fact, only once in their last 12 games has Hofstra scored less than 1.10 points per possession. Hofstra has scored 1.231 points per possession or more in 8 of those games. Hofstra goes up against a Drexel defense tonight that is 340th in the nation in effective field goal percentage.

In the first game between these two, Hofstra had 47 points at halftime. That game was played to a pace of 71 possessions. 

Hofstra's offense has remained great all year, but their defense which was improved, has fallen apart of late. Teams are figuring out this zone. Hofstra has allowed 1.16 points per possession or more in four of their last five games. 

Drexel is much better offensively than they were a year ago.

The last three times these two have met the final totals have been 177, 164, and 164 points. 

I expect the offenses to have the upper hand once again. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles have improved drastically on defense this year. Marquette was 292nd in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They rank 19th in that same statistic this season. 

Villanova had the best offense in the country last year. The Wildcats are still good on offense, but nothing like they were a year ago. They were 1st in effective FG percentage offense last year. They are 55th this year. Villanova is playing six possessions per game slower than a year ago as well, so there has been massive tempo change. 

The first game between these two teams played to a pace of only 61 possessions. The final was 66-65. The shooting numbers were about average there.

This is a big game for Villanova after multiple losses. The Wildcats should be working hard on defense here. Marquette's Markus Howard is their superstar, and he is playing with a groin injury right now. 

Late in the regular season, unders have value in the big games between quality teams- because the games mean a lot to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics were called out by Brad Stevens after their loss in Toronto on Tuesday night. Stevens is very disappointed in the team's defensive effort. While this Celtics team has been disappointing on defense of late, they are still 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season as a whole. Boston is fully capable of playing much better defense than they have of late.

Portland is a good offensive team, but they aren't nearly as efficient on the road. The Blazers are averaging 1.157 points  per possession at home and only 1.094 points per possession on the road. 

Boston ranks 17th in the NBA in tempo. Portland ranks 18th in the NBA in tempo. Both teams have played slightly slower than that in their last few games. 

With the tempo this game should be expected to play out to, if either team struggles from the floor it will be hard to get to this total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have been an under machine, and I have to back the under again here. Missouri State is in a tie for first place in the league, and it is thanks to them slowing the game down and winning with defense. Missouri State ranks first in the MVC in defensive efficiency.

Illinois State has slowed down pace wise of late as well, and I see the RedBirds having trouble being efficient against this Missouri State defense. 

Look for Missouri State to control the tempo and keep this under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers have what is arguably the best defense in the country. Virginia is holding opponents to just 0.852 points per possession on the season. 

Georgia Tech has been absolutely hapless on offense this year. How bad have they been? They have been below 0.80 points per possession in seven games this year! They have been held to 0.765 points per possession or worse in six contests. Now, they take on the best defense they have played all year. 

Virginia is playing at the same pace they have in past years. They are the slowest paced team in the nation. The Cavs have averaged only 59 possessions per game in their last five contests. They have gotten even slower as the year has moved along. 

Georgia Tech staying under 50 points here is a very real possibility. Virginia is good at taking the air out of the ball when they have a big lead as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers are extremely good at forcing the game into their preferred pace of play. Wisconsin also has a tremendous defense. I really like how consistent this Wisconsin defense has been. Wisconsin hasn't allowed a single team to score more than 1.024 points per possession in their last ten games. 

Indiana has tended to let the opposition control the tempo of the game. The Hoosiers have seen 5 of their last 8 games stay under this total in regulation. Indiana's games have been much lower scoring at home in the conference due to their better defense on their home floor. 

Wisconsin is 10-4 on the under at this total in their last 14 games. The Badgers will continue to slow the game down and play gritty defense here.

This total has been bet up to the point where there is enough value to play the under. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Iowa Panthers have quietly been much more efficient on offense of late. Northern Iowa has been better than their season average in points per possessions in 7 of their last 8 games. Northern Iowa has scored 71 points or more in four of their last five games. 

Valparaiso's offense is better with Ryan Fazekas and Markus Golder back in the fold after some injury issues. The Crusaders scored 71 and 79 points in two of their last three games in regulation. Their offensive upside is much higher than it was when Fazekas missed a long stretch during the middle of the season.

This is a game between two teams who are mediocre or worse on the season in conference and it is very late in the regular season for these teams. That has been a very good long term system for taking overs in the past. The MVC is a conference where low overs in these spots have been very good.

This total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves host the Little Rock Trojans on Saturday. The first meeting between these two was an epic 84-83 contest played at a pace of 77 possessions. 

Little Rock ranks 53rd in the nation in tempo. Arkansas State ranks 96th in the nation in tempo.Both of these teams like to play quickly, and both of them excel at getting to the free throw line. Little Rock ranks 8th in FTA/FGA in the country. Arkansas State ranks 32nd in that statistic. These teams are number one and two in Sun Belt play in free throws attempted. Both teams rank in the bottom 45 in the country in defending without fouling, so we should expect plenty of free throws here.

Little Rock shoots the ball very well from the floor. Their issue has been turnovers on offense, but Arkansas State doesn't force many turnovers. Arkansas State has been more efficient on offense at home this season and their defense is one of the weakest in the Sun Belt.

This should be a close game and overtime is certainly a possibility. With a bunch of free throws and a lot of possessions, I'll back the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have changed up their game in a big way. Missouri State is stalling the game out and trying to force it into a low scoring game. They've been able to do precisely that. 

Missouri State has played 9 straight games that have finished at 131 total points or less. Eight of the nine games have finished at 126 points or fewer. The Bears are better than Indiana State and I think they can dictate the tempo here.

Indiana State is dead last in the MVC in 3 point shooting percentage, and that is Missouri State's only real weakness is guarding beyond the arc. 

Neither team gets many second chance opportunities, and both teams are solid defensive rebounding teams.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Orlando Magic and Chicago Bulls both trended toward much higher scoring games right before the break. Both teams sped up their pace and were much more efficient.

In the past six games, Orlando and Chicago rank second and third in the NBA in points per possession at 1.18 per possession each. Both rank in the top 20 in tempo as well after being bottom of the league tempo teams for much of the season. 

Orlando has scored 117 points or more in six of their last eight games. They have allowed 122 points or more in four of those eight contests. The Bulls have scored 118 points or more in five of their last six contests. 

Both teams have talked about speeding up play in the second half.

Eric Lewis is one of the refs calling this game, and he is one of the best over refs in the NBA. Marat Kogut also has been a pretty good over referee and he's calling this game as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The VMI Keydets are absolutely awful on defense. VMI has been bad on defense all year, but they have been at their absolute worst of late. VMI has allowed 3 of their last 5 opponents to average 1.25 points per possession or higher.

How high scoring have VMI's games been? VMI has seen 9 of their last 10 games go over this posted total. 

East Tennessee State beat VMI 85-82 in the first meeting between these two teams. E Tennessee State is a pretty good shooting team, and they are great on the offensive glass. They should get quite a few second chance points here. Their last four games have all gone over this posted total.

Neither of these teams have a chance in the SoCon, so they are just playing out the string until conference tournament comes around. That helps the over.

Take the over here. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have excelled at controlling the tempo since they decided to change styles after a bad loss in MVC play. Dana Ford's team is consistently keeping the pace of the game at a maximum of 61 possessions per game. The first meeting with Northern Iowa was played at 56 possessions.

If this game goes at 58 or 59 possessions, it would take some very high shooting percentages to get this one past the posted total.

In Missouri State's last 8 games, only one of them got to this total (131 exactly). The other 7 were under this total, and many were well under the total.

I see a good amount of value here.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Over* The South Dakota Coyotes were averaging less than 67 possessions per game in the non-conference slate. They are averaging 69.1 possessions in Summit League play.

South Dakota has allowed 1.29 points per possession or more in three of their last four games. They are also averaging 1.15 points per possession on offense in their last three games. 

Denver has one of the worst defenses in college basketball. How bad are they? They have allowed 1.164 points per possession or higher in each of their last four games. At the same time, they have scored 1.142 points per possession or more in 5 of their last 7 games.

The Summit League is well known for high scoring games with little defense. How about this angle? From game 10 of the regular season on with a total of 153 or lower, the over is a whopping 85-36 in the Summit League (70.2%). This is a low total for a Summit League contest. Both teams have played a bit quicker of late, and this game doesn't mean much to them with the conference tournament just around the corner.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals have played some better basketball of late. Ball State has won three straight contests, and they will be looking for road revenge here.

Miami (OH) has played very good defense in recent weeks. How good? Miami hasn't allowed any of their last eight opponents to average more than 1.05 points per possession against them. Miami has been better than their season average in effective field goal percentage in 9 of their last 10 games. This defense has improved by leaps and bounds during the season.

Ball State has been great defensively of late as well. Ball State is 35th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense on the year. The Cardinals haven't allowed more than 1.06 points per possession in their last ten games.

Miami has played nine games in a row under this posted total in regulation. The Redhawks will work to slow this game down, and both offenses have had trouble getting to 1 point per possession in recent contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have changed the way they play since being shorthanded and without Weathers leading the way for their offense. Since he has been gone, Oklahoma State is averaging a little more than 20 seconds per possession on offense. The Cowboys have scored 72 or less in every Big 12 game since then. They have scored 61 points or fewer in 5 of their 7 Big 12 games since that time. Oklahoma State hasn't played a conference game to anything faster than 64 possessions since that time either.

TCU has been playing to the pace of their opponents of late. The Horned Frogs aren't nearly as efficient on offense this year as they were a year ago. They are also much better defensively.

The first meeting between these two finished at 138, and that was with some solid shooting numbers. 

Given the change of styles for Oklahoma State, I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Nebraska Cornhuskers season has really fallen apart thanks in large part to injuries. Since Chris Copeland went down with an injury, Nebraska's offense has fallen off in a huge way.

Nebraska had only scored less than 69 points once in the Big Ten before Copeland was injured. In the games since, Nebraska has scored 60, 51, 64, 45, 62, and 62 points. The Cornhuskers were extremely inefficient for several games, and now in their last couple games they have decided to drastically slow down the pace. 

Northwestern ranks dead last in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency. The Wildcats are averaging just 0.917 points per possession in league play. The Wildcats have played 5 of their last 7 games below this low total.

Four of Nebraska's last six games have stayed under this total as well.

Expect a slow paced game between two teams who are struggling badly on offense right now.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Monroe Warhawks and the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns share something in common- neither one of them plays much defense at all.

Monroe is giving up 1.137 points per possession inside Sun Belt action. That's some terrible defense, and it all starts with allowing opponents to shoot 56.2% on two point field goal attempts.

Louisiana Lafayette is allowing a league worst 1.15 points per possession in Sun Belt play. They are allowing opponents to shoot 40.3% from 3 point range. 

Both teams excel at getting to the line. Monroe shoots a very impressive 79.7% from 3 point range as a team. Louisiana shoots a very solid 75.7% from the stripe.

In league play, these are the number one and number two teams in terms of efficiency on offense. 

The first game between these two was 99-95 and played at a blistering 84 possessions.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game between these two teams finished 82-70, and the shooting numbers were very poor. The game was played to a very fast 79 possession pace. 

Fresno State has wanted to run when they can this year, and New Mexico goes as fast as anyone in the MWC. 

The Lobos are using the press a lot and looking to get out in transition. Their fastest paced games of the year have come recently.

The teams shot a combined 12/57 from 3 point range in the first game that finished a few points above this total. Both teams created a lot of second chance looks in that game.

This should be a tight game, and I see plenty of fouls with the two aggressive defenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Dayton Flyers and VCU Rams meet in a key A 10 showdown on Saturday afternoon. Dayton is the most efficient offense in the A 10. VCU is the fastest paced team in the A 10. 

VCU does play good defense, but with the tempo this will be played at and the efficiency that Dayton has scored at this year, this is a very low total. 

The first game between these two was 76-71. I'm not sure this one will be that high, but I think this total is set several points too low. Look for a tight game with plenty of free throws. Overtime is always possible with the line set at 1.5 as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars have slowed their tempo down drastically of late. BYU has played seven straight games under their season average for tempo. That's the sign of a team changing their pace in a big way. 

Loyola Marymount ranks 349th in the country in average length of possession. They are using up 20.6 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average in WCC action.

These two teams played just two weeks ago. BYU won 67-49 in a game that played to only 61 possessions. Marymount will do their best to slow this one down again. I think they get the tempo of their choosing.

BYU has had 3 of their last 4 games go under this total. Loyola Marymount has had their past 7 games all stay under this total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The VCU Rams play at an extremely fast pace. VCU is averaging 70 possessions per game in the A10. They have been excellent on defense this year, but Richmond is both one of the most efficient offenses in the league and one of the worst defenses.

Richmond is 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency. They are 12th in the league in defensive efficiency. Three of Richmond's last four games have gotten to 148 points or more. 

VCU has seen 4 of their last 5 games go over this total. The Rams are picking up the pace even more in recent contests.

With VCU pushing the pace and Richmond's defense being weak while their offense is efficient, I think this total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers are excellent at controlling the pace of the game. Wisconsin is averaging only 62.9 possessions per game in the Big Ten. Their last four games have all played to 61 possessions or fewer.

Michigan State was pushing the pace quite a bit in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but the Spartans have slowed down more than a possession per game in the Big Ten. 

Michigan State ranks 9th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin ranks 7th in defensive efficiency. It should be hard to find open looks in this one. 

Both of these teams have been good at defending without fouling. 

Five of Michigan State's last 8 games have stayed under this number in regulation. Wisconsin has seen 11 of their last 12 Big Ten games stay under this number in regulation.

This should be a hard fought defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The LA Clippers have a whole different look than they did a couple weeks ago. The Clippers rank 12th in offensive efficiency in the NBA for the entire season, but they rank only 21st in offensive efficiency in the last eight games. They have lost a lot of key offensive players during the trade deadline period.

Minnesota ranks 24th in pace in the NBA in their last eight games. They have slowed things down quite a bit in recent contests. The Timberwolves have a lot of injury issues at the point guard spot, and that has led them to slow the tempo. 

The Clippers are 10-2 to the under in their last 12 road games. For a game with a pace that isn't extremely high, this is an awfully high total.

Two of the three referees in this game are big under referees. Eric Dalen has a career under percentage of 56.6% (307 Unders 235 Overs).

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Missouri State changed the way they played a few games ago. Dana Ford is a defensive-minded coach, and he was unhappy with the defense this team was playing. They started slowing things down dramatically and focusing on taking care of the ball and working hard on defense. It is working very well. Missouri State has won 4 of their last 5 games. 

What has happened with their tempo? Missouri State is averaging 67 possessions per game for the year, but none of their last five games have finished with a pace of anything faster than 58 possessions in regulation. That's as dramatic of a pace change as you'll see in the middle of the season. Those five games have all finished at 124 points or lower.

Missouri State is using up more than 20 seconds of the shot clock on average in the MVC.

Illinois State has slowed down a bit of late, and the RedBirds have played three straight games that have finished under this total.

Illinois State is 3rd in the MVC in defensive efficiency. Missouri State is first. The two teams are 5th and 6th in offensive efficiency.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jackson State is playing extremely slowly in SWAC play. Jackson State is using up 20.8 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on an average possession in league play. Alcorn State ranks 272nd out of 353 teams in tempo, so they aren't very quick either.

Jackson State is 347th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Alcorn State is 348th in that same category. These are two extremely inefficient offenses. 

Both teams rank in the bottom 50 in the country in turnover percentage on offenses, so that's one of their big weaknesses is handling the ball. On defense, both teams rank in the top 108 in the country in forcing turnovers. A lot of wasted possessions are likely here.

The last three meetings between these two have finished at 115, 117, and 111 points. Though this total is very low, Jackson State has seen 7 of their last 10 games finish with 118 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and the Texas State Bobcats have played six games against each other since Coastal Carolina joined the Sun Belt. The average final total in those games is 115 points. One of those games went into overtime and it only finished 56-54. 

The defensive schemes that these two run have had the upper hand against the offenses on a consistent basis. Texas State is a defense-first team who is great at controlling the pace of the game. 

Coastal Carolina has shown itself to be a team that plays to the pace of the opponent. That's a good thing in this game since Texas State is both the home team and the team who plays slowly on a consistent basis. 

Coastal Carolina and Texas State both have turnover trouble on offense, so a lot of empty possessions should hurt the offensive efficiency numbers in this one.

These teams have had all kinds of low scoring contests of late. I think this will be another one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UT Martin Skyhawks have slowed their tempo down drastically in recent games. They rank 11th in the league in average possession length on offense. Who is 12th? The Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles.

UT Martin has seen 4 of their last 5 slowest paced games come in their last 5 contests. They have played five straight games below their average tempo on the season. They have clearly decided to slow things down. 

Tennessee Tech ranks last in offensive efficiency in the OVC, and it isn't very close. The Golden Eagles are only averaging 0.904 points per possession on the year. They are third in the league in defensive efficiency though.

UT Martin's defense isn't good, but they have been a bit better of late. They also rank 12th in the country at defending without fouling. That's important since the primary way Tennessee Tech has scored this year has been getting to the line. 

The recent trends point to an under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are coming off a disappointing home loss to Austin Peay. That loss dropped them into a 4 way tie for first place in the OVC. 

Tennessee Martin wasn't having any success before, so they have decided to change up their style in recent games. They are running a zone defense part of the time, and they are playing much slower offensively. 

Each of Martin's last five games have played to a pace slower than their season average even though they have played some very fast paced opponents. 

Jacksonville State is slightly slower paced than most teams in the OVC, and they have the single best defense in the league. UT Martin's best offense is their ability to grab offensive boards, but Jacksonville State is easily first in the league in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Neither team gets to the line much either. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks have been playing a lot of zone defense of late. Cal's offense isn't very good against man, but they are terrible against zone. Cal actually ranks in the 61st percentile in the country in offense against man defense. They rank in the 15th percentile in the country against zone defenses. 

Oregon ranks as the slowest paced team as far as their offensive pace alone (length of time they possess the ball on an average offensive possession). Cal ranks as the second slowest. There isn't any reason to expect a quick pace here.

The under has been a good bet in the long term in college basketball over with a big favorite at home. 

The under is 9-1 in Oregon's last 10 as a home favorite of 10 points or more as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have changed the way they play of late. Oklahoma State has been playing a lot of zone, and they have slowed things down in a huge way on offense. Oklahoma State was averaging 16.5-17 seconds per possession on offense earlier this year. Michael Weathers is out now and the team has a new primary ball handler. Depth on the whole is a big issue. Oklahoma State has played three Big 12 games without Weathers, and the tempo in each of those games played to 61.4, 60.5, and 58.5 possessions. They have used a little more than 21 seconds of the shot clock on average in those games. They are stalling in a big way.

TCU has been awful defensively in their last two games. Jamie Dixon said they are emphasizing defense here, and the Horned Frogs have been much better at home on defense than on the road. TCU has allowed only 0.905 points per possession on their home floor this year. I would expect a better effort here.

With a slow pace and zone being played, this is a lot of points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wyoming Cowboys have had to slow things down this year thanks to some terrible injury/suspension issues in the program. Wyoming has been playing with seven players most of the season. The Cowboys are using up 20 seconds of the shot clock on average in Mountain West play. They are easily the slowest paced team in the league. 

Air Force ranks 10th out of 12 teams in the league in tempo. The Falcons always prefer a halfcourt game, and they'll be happy to play slowly with Wyoming here.

Air Force's defense is improved from the last couple seasons. They are giving up only 1.023 points per possession at home in league play. 

Wyoming's offense has been terrible in general, and they have been particularly bad on the road. Wyoming ranks 347th in the nation in offensive efficiency on the road. Wyoming is averaging an awful 0.836 points per possession in MWC play.

Air Force and Wyoming have played three straight meetings that have gone under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have decided to play a completely different way than they did earlier this year. Missouri State's first-year coach Dana Ford is known as a very good defensive-minded coach. He wasn't happy with the team's defense earlier this year. They have decided to slow the game down and try to win with defense and ball control of late. It is working.

Missouri State has won 3 of their last 4. The Bears rank second in the MVC in defensive efficiency. They are first in two point field goal percentage defense in the league. 

Missouri State was consistently playing games at a pace of 70 possessions just a few weeks ago. Lately, their pace has slowed drastically. Missouri State averages 67.8 possessions per game on the year. How have their last four games looked as far as tempo? Their last four games have paced to 51.5 possessions, 56.9 possessions, 55.2 possessions, and 55.8 possessions. 

Southern Illinois rank 304th in the nation in tempo, so they should be happy to play at a slow tempo as well. The Salukis are turning the ball over on 22% of their offensive possessions (worst in the league). Missouri State is first in the MVC in forced turnover percentage, so there should be a lot of empty trips for Southern Illinois. Southern Illinois is 7th in the nation in defending without fouling.

I expect a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats should slow the pace down here. I don't think they want to get up and down with Kansas. Kansas State is on their home floor, and they are excellent on defense. 

According to TeamRankings, Kansas is averaging only 0.981 points per possession on the road. This Kansas offense isn't as good as some of the most recent Kansas teams. In the last three seasons, Kansas rated in the top 12 every year in effective field goal percentage offense according to KenPom. This year they are 74th thus far. 

Kansas State ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.851 points er possession when playing at home. Kansas ranks 13th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

In Kansas State's last 14 games, the two highest scoring games were 135 and 140 points total. 

This total has been pushed up too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Akron's last 10 games have gone 9-1 under this total. Akron is consistently slowing games down and turning games into a rock fight. Toledo was a team that pushed the pace and played poor defense in the past, but that isn't true this season.

Toledo ranks 31st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Akron ranks 35th in that same statistic. Toledo is 228th in average possession length (slower than average). Akron is even slower at 281st in the country.

Toledo has played four of their last six games under this total. The Rockets aren't the same team they were the last couple seasons.

There has been some over steam in this game, and it is plenty to make this a valuable under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints are playing far slower than anyone else in the country. They rank 353rd in average possession length. How slow are they playing? They are taking 21.8 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average. The second slowest team is taking 20.8 seconds of the shot clock on average. To be a full second slower than the second slowest team out of 353 is pretty remarkable.

Jamion Christian was known as a good defensive coach coming into this year. Siena had a hard time learning his system to start the year, but they are playing some excellent defense of late. The Saints are first in the MAAC in defensive efficiency. They are allowing only 0.947 points per possession in the league. 

There are 11 teams in the MAAC. Fairfield is 10th in the league at getting to the free throw line. Siena is 11th. There shouldn't be many free throw attempts here. 

Fairfield has been playing to the pace of their opponent of late, which is a good sign for the under in this one.

Fairfield has seen four of their last eight games finish at 117 points or fewer. 

Siena has seen six straight games finish at 123 points or fewer. 

I expect another low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*2 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams will play to see who wins the Super Bowl on Sunday night. New England has been here all kinds of times, and this is the first trip for this Rams team. 

The Rams have run the ball on more than 50% of their offensive plays in their last three games. Jared Goff has been shaky late in the season, and I expect the Rams to run the ball quite a bit in this game especially early on in the game. 

The Patriots have transformed themselves into a team that runs the ball well behind a strong offensive line. There's no doubt New England has less elite weapons in the passing game now than they have had in the past, so it makes sense for them to make this change. They have multiple good running back options. I think they'll run the ball a lot in this one as well. 

I think both teams will likely run the ball more and try to keep their defense off the field, which should result in some long drives that eat up a lot of clock. 

The Rams defense has allowed less than 19 points per game in contests Aqib Talib has played. He has been a difference maker for this defense. The defensive line has played much better in their last few games as well. This Rams defense is very well coached by Wade Phillips. 

New England's defense confused the Chiefs for much of the game in the AFC title game. I think they'll have some good schemes ready here as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have decided to play differently. Dana Ford is known as a defensive-minded coach, but in his first few games as coach at Missouri State this team was playing quickly and wasn't very efficient on defense. They re-committed to working hard on the defensive end, and they have slowed their pace down dramatically in recent games.

Missouri State was routinely playing games to a pace of about 70 possessions per game for a long time. The Bears have played completely differently in their last three games. Their last three games have played to a pace of 51.5, 56.9, and 55.2 possessions. That is as slow as you will ever see. Strong defense and a slow pace has led to games that finished at 105, 92, and 98 points total at the end of regulation (the final game went into OT and finished with 109 points). 

Northern Iowa is going back to playing pretty slowly after experimenting with a faster pace earlier this year. They rank 325th in the nation in tempo, and are unlikely to push the issue much here.

This projects as a tight game where the defenses have the upper hand and everything stays in the halfcourt.

The recent trends are too strong for me to pass up this one.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* There are nine teams in the Atlantic Sun. Liberty is easily the slowest paced team. It's a completely different game when you go up against the Flames. They have played 5 of their 8 games in the league to a pace of 62 possessions or less. 

NJIT has been great defensively this year. They are allowing only 0.881 points per possession in the league. They have been significantly better on defense on the road than at home on the season. In the same way, Liberty has been much better on offense on the road, and stronger on defense at home. 

This game projects at a pace of 60-61 possessions. These teams would have to shoot well or get into a fouling fest to get past this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats have been involved in a ton of extremely low scoring games this year. Kansas State has seen 5 of their last 8 games finish with 120 points or less. The Wildcats rank 4th in defensive efficiency in the country. 

Kansas State has been the slowest paced team in the Big 12 this year. They are using 19.9 seconds of the shot clock on average. The Wildcats are averaging just 0.989 points per possession in league play.

Oklahoma State has changed the way they play without Michael Weathers. It is clear that this team decided to slow things down drastically without their star guard. They held Iowa State and Oklahoma, two of the fastest paced teams in the league, to just 61 possessions and 60 possessions. In those games alone, they used more than 20 seconds per possession on offense.

A slow paced hard fought game here, and I expect it to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and the UT Arlington Mavericks have more in common than you would think. Texas State ranks 1st in the Sun Belt in defensive efficiency. UT Arlington ranks second in the conference in defensive efficiency. Texas State ranks as the slowest paced team in the league. UT Arlington is the second slowest team in the league. 

Most teams in the Sun Belt want to run and gun all the time. There can be a lot of very high scoring games with poor defense in this league. I think that creates value in a game like this. These teams are more like each other than anyone else in the league. They should be happy to play this game in the halfcourt and grind it out.

My number is five points lower than this total, so I'll take the under and expect a defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas always want to push the pace. Only one team is pushing the pace on offense in the MAC more than them and that is Buffalo. Central Michigan is averaging only 15.6 seconds per possession on offense. The Chippewas are 19th in the country in FTA/FGA, so they get to the line a lot. They also shoot it well from 3 point range. In MAC play, they are shooting 38.5% from long range.

Western Michigan is a team that has decided to pick up the pace of late. The Broncos have averaged 69.5 possessions per game for the year, but six straight contests have paced out to a 69.8 possession pace or quicker. They have decided to run. They'll get their chance to run against Central Michigan here.

Both teams are good at getting offensive rebounds, and neither team is good on the defensive glass. Second chance opportunities can be key for the over.

An up and down game where late fouling is a real possibility with a spread of 9 points. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers are as good as anyone in the country at controlling the pace of the game. Wisconsin is going to force you to play a game at their tempo. They aren't getting out in the open floor. They want a halfcourt game where they often excel.

Wisconsin is 342nd out of 353 teams in the country in length of time used per possession. The Badgers are using up 19.8 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average in Big Ten play. Wisconsin has seen 7 of their last 8 games stay under this total. In fact, 6 of those 8 games finished at 124 points or lower.

Maryland has slowed down significantly of late as far as tempo. The first game between these two was only 61 possessions. The Terrapins are 4th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin is second (they are 5th in the nation). 

Maryland and Wisconsin have met seven times since Maryland joined the Big Ten and all 7 games have finished with a final total of 131 points or less. I don't see any reason to expect this one to be different.

Take the under. 

*3 Star TGIF NBA Totals Takedown* The Utah Jazz were just humiliated in Portland on Wednesday night. Portland scored 45 points in the first quarter on their way to winning 132-105 over the Jazz. This is a Utah team that prides itself on defense, and their defense was at its very worst in their last game.

Utah now comes home to take on an Atlanta team that averages only 1.039 points per possession on the road this year. The Jazz should be focused on the defensive end here after that terrible performance in Portland.

There is a great angle backing this under. The under is a whopping 117-72 (61.9%) in Utah's home games against a team with a winning percentage of 50% or lower with a total of 194 or higher since 2006. 

Utah tends to blow out bad teams and win with defense in these games. I expect a bounce back here and this is a very high total considering the spot.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Davidson Wildcats are a completely different team than they were a year ago. Davidson ranked 16th in the nation in offensive efficiency last year. They rank 144th this year. Davidson was only 120th in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 61st this year. 

Davidson was averaging 1.167 points per possession on offense last year in A10 play. They average 1.00 points per possession in the A10 this year. On defense, they allowed 0.999 points per possession last year, but they are allowing only 0.911 points per possession in A10 play this year.

Davidson hasn't had a single game in league play finish with more than 137 points. They have had 5 of the 7 finish at 126 points or lower. That includes games against fast paced VCU and Duquesne. 

St. Bonaventure plays much slower this year. The Bonnies no longer have two stars in Adams and Mobley. They are trying to win with defense this year. The Bonnies ranked 104th fastest in tempo last year in the country. They are 326th this year. They are slowing down a lot more of late also. Their average possessions per game is 64.8 for the year, but 6 of their last 7 games have played to a pace of 62.8 possessions or slower.

This number has pushed up too far. I expect a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks have completely changed the way they play. Oregon is no longer running the floor. Oregon ranks as the slowest paced offense in the Pac 12 this season. The Ducks are looking to run the clock and pass the ball around a lot on the offensive end. Defensively, Oregon is using a zone defense the majority of the time. That's important because Utah has been great against a man defense, but they have struggled against zones. They rank in the top 35% of offenses in the country against man offenses. They rank in the bottom 35% of offenses against a zone.

Utah's defense has been much improved in recent weeks, and Oregon hasn't been efficient away from home. The Utes are a solid defensive rebounding team, and they don't foul often either.

Both meetings between these two last year stayed under this number, and both games were played at an extremely slow pace. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah Valley Wolverines have been known as an offensive juggernaut under Mark Pope. He is a brilliant offensive head coach. Utah Valley goes against the worst defense in the WAC tonight in Cal Baptist. 

Cal Baptist is allowing 1.116 points per possession this year despite the 22nd easiest slate of offenses in the country according to KenPom. Utah Valley is the 2nd or 3rd best offense they have played so far this year. 

Utah Valley ranks 17th in the country in FTA/FGA, so they live at the line. Cal Baptist fouls the 10th most out of 353 teams in the nation. Cal Baptist is good at getting to the line on offense as well. In conference, these two teams are shooting 76.5% and 80% from the free throw line.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The America East Conference is known for low scoring defensive battles. I expect another one of those in this contest.

UMBC is 319th in the country in tempo, and they have been excellent at controlling the pace of the game. Their games are consistently played at 65 possessions or fewer. UMBC also does a great job limiting second chance opportunities. They also rank 8th in the country in forced turnovers percentage.

Stony Brook is an average paced team, but they are extremely inefficient on offense thanks to poor shooting and some major turnover woes. They are turning it over on more than 25% of their offensive possessions in the conference. They are only averaging 0.897 points per possession in the league.

Stony Brook's last 5 games have all been 125 or lower in regulation. For UMBC, 5 of their last 7 games have finished with 117 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* No team in the country has changed more than Missouri State. The Missouri State Bears hired a defensive-minded coach in Dana Ford. Missouri State started the season out playing some very bad defense. They were pushing pace and looking to outscore teams in high scoring games and it wasn't working. Ford's team slowed things down and worked hard on defense. It has paid off of late. 

Missouri State had the worst defense in non-conference play of any MVC team. They have the best defense in terms of efficiency in league play. They are trapping much more often and creating a bunch of turnovers. On offense, they are slowing things down and winning the low scoring battles. 

Missouri State has played its last two games to a pace of 52 and 57 possessions (extremely slow). Valparaiso plays at the second slowest pace in the league, so they should be happy to play a slow it down contest here. 

Valparaiso has some severe injury concerns. Leading scorer Ryan Fazekas (12.7 ppg) has missed the last few games and he is out again here. Markus Golder is the team's third leading scorer and he injured his ankle in the team's loss to Drake last time out. He will miss the game. 

I think both defenses have the upper hand here, and the pace should be very slow.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are a tremendous defensive team. Chris Beard is one of the best coaches in the country, and he is a defense-first coach. Texas Tech ranked 5th in defensive efficiency in the country according to KenPom last year. They are first this year. They allowed 0.908 points per possession last year. They are giving up only 0.841 points per possession this year. 

TCU was a poor defense last year. The Horned Frogs ranked 248th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense last year. What about this year? They rank 18th! TCU is much improved on defense. 

Both teams are much worse on offense. TCU ranked 9th in offensive efficiency a year ago, but they are only 40th best this year. Texas Tech ranked 50th best in offensive efficiency last year. They are 140th so far this year. Neither team has as many scoring options, and it has hurt them quite a bit.

Texas Tech has seen 12 of their last 13 games stay under this total. The one that went over finished at 135 points. TCU has played three straight games that have finished at 126 points or less.

A hard fought defensive battle.

Take the under.