*4 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves are elite against left handed pitching, but against right handed pitching they are actually below the league average in weighted on base average. Atlanta is expected to be without Acuna here after he was injured on Sunday, and that's a big loss in the lineup.

Jacob Degrom has been fantastic this year for the Mets. Degrom has a 1.54 ERA and a terrific 1.89 FIP on the season. His swinging strike rate is all the way up to 15%, which is about as good as you will ever see. Degrom has been one of the best in the majors this year. He has a career ERA of only 1.97 in day games. He has a career ERA of only 1.89 in 13 starts against Atlanta.

Max Fried is a talented young lefty for the Braves. Fried goes against a Mets lineup that ranks last by a large margin in weighted on base average against lefties. The Mets lineup is a really weak one without Cespedes and Frazier, especially against left handed pitching.

Both lineups are banged up going into this one and I like the starting pitching matchup.

The under is 6-0 in Degrom's last 6 starts. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's all on the line here in Boston on Sunday night. It's 3-3 and this is game seven. LeBron James and the Cavs shot the ball extremely well on Friday night en route to a 109-99 win over the Celtics in Cleveland. 

On the surface it would look like things didn't slow down as the games got more important in game six, but they actually did. The pace of game six was the slowest of any game in this series thus far. Both teams just shot the ball better than normal. The Cavs also got 15 offensive rebounds, which is not at all the usual for them. Boston made 12/28 from 3 point range in the loss. 

This game means everything to both teams and it would be surprising if the tempo sped up at all here. Every possession matters more. The winner of this game will be in the NBA Finals. 

Kevin Love is questionable for game seven with an injury, and if he misses the game or is less than 100 percent that helps the under. Love is a good offensive player, but he is a subpar defensive player. 

Look for better defensive effort and lower shooting percentages here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies start Nick Pivetta here. Pivetta is one of the most improved pitchers in baseball. He was tremendous in the minors, but struggled in the big leagues last year. He's getting ahead in the count and not making near as many mistakes this year. Pivetta's swinging strike rate was an average 8.7% last year and it has jumped to an impressive 11.3% this year. Pivetta has a 3.23 ERA and his FIP is even better at 2.86. 

J.A. Happ has been great so far this year. Happ had a swinging strike rate of 9.4% last year, but it has jumped to 12.0% this season. He's been much sharper with his slider, and that gives hitters something extra to worry about. In 4 of his last 6 starts, Happ has gone at least 7 innings and allowed 2 runs or less. 

Both of these bullpens were used a lot less yesterday thanks to some good work by the starting pitchers, and that helps make more of the best bullpen guys available in this one. 

The wind blowing in at 10-15 mph during this game is a nice help.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New York Mets offense is a mess without Cespedes, Frazier, and Lagares. The Brewers offense has underachieved all season. 

Noah Syndergaard is a top young talent. Syndergaard contains a rare combination of great command and great swing and miss stuff. Very few pitchers that have the swing and miss stuff that he has are able to throw strikes as consistently as Syndergaard. 

Junior Guerra has been solid this year. Guerra has an impressive 3.02 ERA at home in his career. He's backed by a fantastic bullpen. All of the Brewers top bullpen guys should be available in this one.

Mike Muchlinski is the home plate umpire and that's a plus for the under as well. He has consistently had a higher strikeout/walk ratio than the average umpire.

The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 13 games. The Brewers offense has been shut down multiple times of late as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets have now scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 12 games. The Mets offense wasn't great to start with, but now they are severely shorthanded with their best bats out of the lineup due to injuries.

Zach Davies is a mediocre pitcher, but he says he is healthy again now and his numbers should improve a bit from his relatively slow start. Davies has good career numbers against the Mets in a small sample size as well. 

Steven Matz goes against a Brewers offense that has been bad against lefties this year. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

In the last 30 days- these two teams rank 24th and 29th overall in the majors in weighted on base average. These offenses have been struggling.

The Mets bullpen is average, but the Brewers bullpen is elite. The Mets don't give us many reasons to expect them to score much here, and the Brewers numbers against lefties are very poor.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's hard to overstate how great Jacob Degrom has been this year. Degrom has a 1.75 ERA and a 1.82 FIP, so it hasn't been good luck, he's just been tremendous. Degrom walked none and struck out 13 in a dazzling performance in his last outing. In his last 27 innings pitched, he has allowed a grand total of one run. 

Degrom has always been great at Citi Field. He has a career ERA of 2.31 at home. His WHIP is only 1.037 at home in his career.

The Marlins have the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching, and it isn't close. Degrom should be able to shut them down and pitch deep into this game.

Dan Straily has pitched much better in his last couple games, and he's going against a Mets lineup that is severely short-handed right now. The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 11 games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins are expected to be without Joe Mauer here as he left last night's game due to a minor back injury. Miguel Sano is still out due to an injury as well. Sano is their best power hitter and Mauer is their most consistent hitter overall. This lineup is significantly weakened right now.

Ryan Braun is on the DL for the Brewers, and they certainly miss his bat. The Brewers rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in almost all major offensive categories so far this year. Milwaukee's bullpen has been absolutely amazing, and they haven't been overworked of late, so most of their top arms should be available here.

Freddy Peralta faced 21 batters at Coors Field in his MLB debut and he struck out 13 of them. I don't have to tell you that isn't an easy task. Peralta hides the ball extremely well and his deceptive delivery should make him tough for hitters the first few times they see him. He has been very good in Triple A.

Fernando Romero has been excellent in his first three big league starts. He has a 12.9% swinging strike rate. Romero consistently throws 97 or 98 mph and still manages to do a solid job limiting hard contact.

Mark Ripperger is behind the plate and I consider him a big under umpire. He ranks in the top six in the majors in strike percentage called in the past five years. The wind is blowing in as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks go to New York City to take on the Mets on Friday night. The Diamondbacks offense has been one of the most disappointing in the majors. Arizona is where they are at right now because of their pitching staff. The Mets started the season hitting the ball well, but injuries stopped them in their tracks in recent weeks.

Arizona is without A.J. Pollock and Jake Lamb due to injury and that is two key losses. Pollock had been on fire offensively until getting hurt a few days ago. 

The Mets are without Todd Frazier and Yoenis Cespedes here. They might also be without Juan Lagares. 

On the season, the Mets are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average and the Diamondbacks are 28th. 

Godley has proven to be a quality starting pitcher and Arizona's bullpen is great. 

Jacob Degrom hasn't allowed a run in his last 20 innings pitched. Degrom has tremendous splits at home throughout his career, and his swinging strike rate is a career high 14.7%. He's pitching at an elite level.

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 12 mph in this one at Citi Field with temperatures only in the 50's.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Celtics coasted to a 108-83 win in game one of this series. Cleveland was 4/26 from 3 point range in that game. The Cavs have some reliable 3 point shooters, and it is hard to imagine them not improving drastically from 3 point range in game two.

Boston's offense showed an ability to get into the paint at will. The Celtics have a quickness advantage at nearly every spot on the floor, and Brad Stevens' team should be able to continue to get to the rim against a Cavs defense that ranked second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season.

In the last regular season game between these two, the total was 213. The total in game one was 204.5 and even 205 at some books. There has been a big adjustment made.

Cleveland and Boston both got fewer offensive rebounds than normal in game one, and they both got to the line less than normal. Even with Cleveland's miserable shooting performance, the game was within 12 points of this total.

I think the Celtics will look to score some in transition with their quickness advantage, and I see the Cavs offense looking much better here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Both Tampa Bay and Kansas City are much better against left handed pitching than they are against right handers. Tampa Bay is 4th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Kansas City is 15th. 

We have two young lefties going in this one, and neither of these guys have been able to pitch deep into the game very often. Kansas City's bullpen is the worst in the majors, and Tampa Bay's bullpen is no better than league average. A lot of innings from the bullpens should mean more scoring chances.

The weather here is very favorable for an over. A temperature in the mid 80's and winds blowing out 13-15 mph are great for the over. There is a chance of rain as well- that could delay the game which means more of the bullpen and in this case that is a positive.

The Royals have allowed a whopping 49 runs in their last six games. The Rays have allowed 35 runs in their last 4 games. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays start Joe Biagini here. Biagini pitched decently last year for a while in the starter's role for Toronto, but the wheels fell off after a while. He didn't pitch very well in Triple A as a starter earlier this year, and now he has an 8.10 ERA in two starts in the big leagues this year.

The Boston Red Sox are easily first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Boston has the second lowest strikeout rate against right handed pitching, and they are second best in isolated power. Biagini has a 6.48 ERA against the Red Sox in his career. Mookie Betts has 6 hits in 11 at bats off him, and two of those hits are homers.

Drew Pomeranz is having some major problems this year. His average fastball velocity is down about 2.5 miles per hour from last year. Pomeranz is giving up much more hard contact this year, and he's pitching from behind in the count more than normal.

Both bullpens have been overworked in recent days. Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire here, and he's one of the best over umpires in baseball. While Sunday is a big under day long term in MLB- the over is 42-17-1 in Meals' last 60 Sunday games behind the plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Twins take on the Angels on Saturday night. Kyle Gibson takes the mound for the Twins. Nick Tropeano is on the hill for the Angels. 

Gibson had been terrible through most of his career, but he has improved so far this season. I'm still a bit skeptical that it is a big breakout. Gibson has struggled badly against the Angels in the past and this is a big test for him. The Angels have a .383 weighted on base average as a team against Gibson. Gibson still has control issues, and I think that will catch up to him over time.

Nick Tropeano is coming off the DL to make this start. Tropeano is no better than a league average pitcher even when he is healthy.

In the past two weeks, the Angels are first in the majors in weighted on base average as a team and the Twins are fourth. Both bullpens are worse than the league average as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets are both teams that play at a quick pace. There have been tons of great scoring opportunities both in the regular season meetings and in this playoff series between these two. 

When it comes to expected goals- none of the first six games were under 5.5 goals. There were a couple great showings by the goalies in there, but the offenses continue to produce great scoring chances.

Looking at the last ten meetings between these two teams, six of those games have finished with 8 goals or more. Yes, this is a game 7 and it means a ton to both teams, but that is more than priced into this line. 

We're getting a significant plus money price on the over at 5.5 when the over was 6 (-105) just a couple games ago in this series. 

The losing team would be very aggressive pulling the goalie late here which could lead to empty netters late.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers both shot the ball extremely well in the first couple games of the series. They have come back down to earth in their shooting in the last couple games. Closeout games in the NBA playoffs have tended to go under the total in a pretty big way in the past ten years, and I see some value on the under here.

Boston's defense ranked in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were first in the NBA in 3 point FG percentage defense. Philadelphia was third in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the season. They were second in 3 point FG percentage defense. 

Ben Simmons is a great player, but his decision making and the decision making by the rest of the primary ball handlers on this 76ers team has hurt them in key spots in the playoffs. The 76ers had the highest turnover rate in the NBA this year.

There were 52 free throws in Game 4, which is a good amount higher than average in the NBA. In a game of this magnitude, the pace tends to slow down and the defenses play extremely hard.

A basic playoff system is a total of 196 or higher with a spread of the home team anywhere from -2.5 to +5.5 and the home team coming off a loss of 7 points or more. In those games, the under is 42-19 (68.9%). If you add in one more filter of public betting percentage of 40% or lower on the under it goes to 31-11 (73.3% to the under. This game fits the system.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays haven't had their typical success against lefties so far this year (they are near the middle of the pack against lefties thus far), but with Josh Donaldson back in the lineup I expect them to improve a lot against lefties. 

Seattle is top ten in almost every major offensive category against left handed pitchers. The Mariners have several good right handed platoon guys who have made a career of hitting lefties. 

Wade LeBlanc starts for the Mariners here. LeBlanc has pitched pretty well at home in his career (most of those starts have been in pitcher friendly San Diego and Seattle), but LeBlanc has an ERA of just a tick higher than 6.5 in road starts in his career. He is a below average lefty.

Jaime Garcia isn't the pitcher he once was. He has always been streaky, and he's in really poor form coming into this game. Garcia threw it well in his first start of the year, but since then he hasn't gone more than 5 and 1/3 in any outing, and he's allowed at least 3 runs in every game. His last two outings have been terrible.

Osuna is out for the Blue Jays which makes their bullpen much worse. The Mariners bullpen has been shaky this year as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike of any home plate umpire in the last 6 years. It isn't very close either. Eddings has consistently had an extremely high strikeout/walk ratio. He's arguably the best under umpire in the game, and he's behind home plate here.

Sean Manaea and Lance McCullers Jr. are two young guys with elite stuff. Both of them have been victimized by walks in the past, but their control has been better so far this season. Eddings will help both of these guys when it comes to expanding the strike zone a bit.

The A's are a good offense, but they are better against right handed pitching than lefties. Houston's bullpen is elite and that certainly helps the under a great deal as well.

In 161 AB's vs. Manaea- the Astros have a very poor .267 weighted on base average. In 55 AB's against McCullers, the A's have a .254 weighted on base average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox offense is banged up pretty badly right now. Moncada had just started to heat up when he went down with an injury. Avasail Garcia is also out with an injury. 

In Chicago's last 26 games, they have scored 2 runs or less 13 times. The White Sox are now injury depleted the most they have been all year on offense.

Pittsburgh's offense isn't as good as they have looked early in the year. On the road, Pittsburgh is now down to 20th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA). The White Sox are much weaker on offense at home (26th in wOBA).

Giolito has shown positive signs in his last couple starts, and his potential is very high. Nova has been a pretty solid pitcher the last couple years, and he's backed by a strong bullpen. 

The wind is blowing in for this one and that is key in this stadium.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Over* Vegas and San Jose have met nine times this year. Six of the nine meetings have seen at least 7 goals scored. Vegas is pushing the pace as much as they can in this series, and it is leading to opportunities both ways. 

The goalies in this series have only been mediocre to this point. There have been a lot of rebound chances for each side.

This is a spot where we could see plenty of empty net chances late because of desperation as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics torched the nets in Game One to defeat Philadelphia 117-101. Boston made a ton of tough 3 pointers in that one, and this Celtics team isn't made to win games like that. Boston wins with defense more often than not. The Celtics should get Jaylen Brown back for this one, and he's their best defender as well.

The Celtics and 76ers ranked number one and two in the NBA in 3 point field goal percentage defense in the regular season. In overall defensive efficiency numbers- the Celtics were first and Philly was 3rd in the season. These are two good defenses.

Boston doesn't want to get into a track meet with Philadelphia, and they were able to slow the pace down pretty well in Game One. 

Another reason to expect a lower scoring game here is the lack of turnovers in game one. Philadelphia carried a 16.0% turnover rate into Game One. They turned it over only 10.9% of the time. Boston carried a 14.1% turnover rate into Game One and they turned it over only 9.7% of the time. There should be more wasted trips in this contest.

Look for things to regress toward the mean here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Jason Vargas is a mediocre lefty, and he is coming off a fairly major injury. Vargas isn't likely to work deep into the game, and the Mets bullpen is worn out right now. 

Julio Teheran has good history against the Mets in Citi Field, but Teheran's advanced statistics this year suggest he has been fortunate thus far. His fastball velocity is down more than 2 mph from last year, and his hard hit rate allowed is up quite a bit. The Braves bullpen is a big problem as well. 

A large reason for this play is the weather. Temperatures in the upper 80's and winds blowing out at 15-20 mph are tremendous for the over. 

In the past 15 years- when the wind is blowing out at least 10 mph at Citi Field- the over is a whopping 116-67 (63.4% overs). If you look at totals of 8.5 or lower only, the over rate goes up to better than 66% during that span.

Two shaky starters and winds howling out on a hot day are a recipe for runs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The weather calls for temperatures in the low 80's and wind blowing out at about 15 mph during this game. That's very favorable conditions for an over.

Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he is one the best over umpires in baseball. Holbrook has seen 54.5% of his games in his career behind the dish go over the total. His strikeout/walk ratio is consistently low compared to the big league average.

Giolito has walked a lot more guys than he has struck out this year. He'll likely have trouble against a Cardinals lineup that is very deep. The White Sox bullpen is one of the worst in baseball as well.

Carlos Martinez is a good pitcher, but he is due for some regression due to his batted ball luck and his strand rate so far this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers start Michael Fulmer here. Fulmer has been superb both during his career in both the first half of the season and at home. Fulmer has a 2.76 ERA in the first half of the year vs. a 4.25 ERA in the second half. He has a 3.19 ERA at home. His WHIP when pitching at home is 1.051 vs. 1.23 on the road. Fulmer has been his very best in day games in his career. Fulmer's career WHIP during day games is 0.989. He gets a below average lineup at home in a day game here.

Blake Snell has been absolutely dealing of late. Snell has walked one batter and struck out 24 in his last three starts combined. Snell has allowed more than 2 runs in only one start this season. That is despite facing Boston twice and the Yankees once already this year. His swinging strike rate was 10.8% last year and it has jumped to 13.8% this year.

This is a get away day game and that should mean some regular guys get the day off. Miguel Cabrera is questionable due to an injury.

The weather calls for a strong breeze from the SW which should serve to slow down fly balls hit toward right field. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Vegas Golden Knights and San Jose Sharks have met six times this season. Four of those contests have finished with 7 goals or more. Vegas has a ton of speed and is good at creating quick scoring chances. San Jose has a major offensive weapon back in this one as Evander Kane returns from a suspension.

In the NHL playoffs, taking a plus money price on the over has been profitable in the long run. With a total of less than 6 goals and a plus money price- when both teams are allowing a defensive shooting percentage of 8.4% or higher the over has a 13.4% ROI in the last 15 years. In the last 10 years the ROI in this situation is 21%. 

This price gives us a good chance to grab the over. Look for a good amount of scoring chances each way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these offenses are excellent. Thus far in the season, Oakland is second in weighted on base average and Houston is 7th. These two lineups are more than capable of putting up big numbers. They have both done it very consistently. Houston has scored 7 runs or more in 7 of their last 10 games. Oakland has scored 8 runs or more in 7 of their last 15 games.

Gerrit Cole has been great so far this year, but you have to expect his numbers to regress some over time. Cole has stranded 92.4% of runners so far this year which can't continue long term. 

Trevor Cahill has only started two games and those were both against subpar offenses. The Astros are one of the best offenses in baseball. I don't trust Cahill, and he's backed by a mediocre bullpen.

Segal is a bit of an over umpire with a smaller than average strike zone and if the roof is open the wind is expected to be blowing out in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Joey Lucchesi has been tremendous so far this year. His deceptive delivery and interesting "churve" pitch have taken the league by storm. Until you have seen him at least once, I think most teams will struggle against him. The Mets are below average against lefties, and Lucchesi is backed by a top five bullpen in the majors as well.

Jason Vargas has historically been a great pitcher in the first half of the season and a terrible second half pitcher. The Padres are bottom five in the league in weighted on base average against lefties.

Marty Foster is the home plate umpire here and the under is 209-175 in his career behind home plate. He routinely calls a higher percentage of strikes than the normal home plate umpire. 

Look for a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds offense is much better than they have performed so far this year. They were without some key guys for long stretches earlier this year. Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez are back in the lineup now, and that should help in a big way. Joey Votto has heated up in the last few games, and he's still one of the best hitters in the game. 

Cincinnati's pitching staff is still a major problem. Romano isn't getting many swinging strikes, and he is getting behind in the count too often. 

Minnesota's offense is also better than they have shown this year. The Twins have guys like Sano and Dozier who should perform better than they have to this point. 

Odorizzi has been very fortunate in recent years with his ERA vs his FIP and xFIP, and I don't expect his fortunes to continue to be so good. His batting average on balls in play allowed is only .250 this year and that shows regression should be on the way.

These are two of the worst five bullpens in baseball. 

Tom Woodring is the umpire here and the over is 41-26 in his career behind the dish.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals host the Chicago White Sox here. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph. 

Danny Duffy has an 8.10 ERA in his last five starts against the White Sox. Duffy's control has been terrible this year, and his getting behind batters is making his home runs allowed rate even worse. He's a fly ball pitcher and with the wind blowing out that should hurt him.

Reynaldo Lopez has had a lot of trouble throwing strikes too. It hasn't hurt him so far very much, but in the long run when you aren't getting that high of a strikeout rate and you are getting behind a lot of people, it should hurt. 

The Royals have the worst bullpen in baseball, and the White Sox rank in the bottom 8 of baseball in relief pitching in almost every advanced statistic. 

Look for both teams to have plenty of scoring chances.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday night. Indiana is down 3-2 after LeBron James nailed the 3 pointer at the buzzer to finish game five in spectacular fashion for the Cavs.

Indiana's defense has played very well in this series. The Pacers are working hard to keep the Cavs out of the paint. The Pacers are also doing a great job slowing down the tempo in this series. 

All five of the games in this series have stayed under the total. I think this one has a good chance to stay under as well. Indiana cannot get into a track meet, and they have been better at controlling the pace on their home floor. 

Game five stayed under this number by double digits despite 54 free throw attempts and 47 made free throws. That is far above average, especially since these two teams both ranked in the top five in the NBA at defending without fouling.

Closeout games in the NBA playoffs have tilted under strongly for a long time- and that is even more the case when the team oddsmakers are lower on is the home team like the Pacers are here. 

This one should be a dog fight, and I'll look for a slow tempo with so much on the line for both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'm playing the under here as I look for the shooting numbers to normalize for these teams.

The Milwaukee Bucks have been shooting lights out the last 3 games. Milwaukee is shooting a ridiculous 56.3% from the floor in their last 3. They are shooting 45.2% from long distance. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.8% from the floor and 35.5% from 3 point range. 

Boston had the number one rated defensive when it comes to points allowed per possession during the regular season. The Celtics are better than they have shown defensively in this series. Marcus Smart was upgraded to questionable for this one and if he plays that is a big boost for the under.

The tempo in this series has been extremely slow. I expect that to continue. If you run efficiency projections for this game you come up with a total several points lower than this.

I'll expect a regression to the mean when it comes to shooting here in this pivotal game 5.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Blue Jackets host the Capitals in a game where Columbus will look to stay alive after leading 2-0 to start this series. A theme in this series has been lots of shots on goal. There have been at least 70 shots on goal total in 3 of the last 4 games. 

All shots on goal aren't created equal though, and that's what has made games between these two unique over time. Both teams are good at creating great scoring chances. There is a lot of pressure on the defenses and the goalies in these contests.

Six of the last nine games between these two have gone over the total. The three that stayed under all finished with 5 goals. 

Expect aggressive play and we could certainly see extended time with an empty net late in the game if someone has a lead.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers have their blueprint for making this a series. They slow the tempo of the game down and be aggressive on defense going for steals and disrupting the Cavs offensive flow. 

The average possessions per game in the four regular season meetings between these two teams was nearly 6 possessions quicker than the first three games of this series have been. Game 3 was the slowest paced game, and Indiana has typically been able to slow the game down more on their home floor so I expect a slower tempo again here.

The Cavs defense has been improved in the playoffs thus far. This game means a bunch to the Cavs, and I would expect effort from them here.

Both of these teams are good at defending without fouling which is key.

None of the first three games in this series have finished even close to this high. Looking at scoring efficiency numbers- I believe this total should be around 200.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Johnny Cueto is healthy this year and he is in the middle of a nice comeback season. I don't think he's the same pitcher he was a few years ago, but he isn't as bad as his numbers from last year suggest either. 

Barria is a highly touted prospect for the Angels who has shown good control in the minor leagues. The Giants lineup is a weak one to start with, and they will be without Pence and might be without Buster Posey again here as well.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here, and he has the highest strikes called percentage in the majors in the last five years. He's a big help to the under.

Sunday has been the best under day in the majors overall by a wide margin in the long term, and with a key number of 9 here, I like the value.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies start Nick Pivetta here, and he's a guy who looks like a new pitcher this year. Pivetta was hurt by a very high HR rate allowed last year, but his minor league numbers were terrific. He appears to be breaking out. Pivetta hasn't just been lucky this year. His advanced statistics all look terrific. 

Trevor Williams has turned into a solid starter for the Pirates, and his ability to keep the ball down with his downward movement on his pitches has been key.

Williams has a career ERA in day games of only 2.62 (4.90 at night). Pivetta has a day ERA of 3.32 (7.02 at night). 

The under is 6-0 in Williams last 6 road starts. The under is 6-0 in Williams last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 Sunday starts. The under is 3-0-2 in the Phillies last 5 home games. The under is 3-0-1 in Pivetta's last 4 starts. The under is 5-0-3 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. A combined 27-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Sunday NBA Early Bird Special* The Boston Celtics were first in the NBA in defensive efficiency this year. Boston allowed 1.015 points per possession. They gave up 1.324 points per possession in Game 3 against Milwaukee. That isn't likely to happen again. 

Even with that ridiculous shooting by Milwaukee, the game very narrowly went past this posted total. I expect Brad Stevens (a tremendous coach), to have his team ready to go in Game 4, especially on the defensive end.

The last two games have seen shooting numbers in an extremely high area overall for both teams. Two games ago Boston averaged 1.301 and Milwaukee 1.149 points per possession (above average). 

The first two games saw posted totals of 200 and 199.5, and scoring efficiency averages I ran for this game were all in the high 190's. 

This number is inflated thanks to great shooting performances from the two teams in the last couple games. The tempo should stay slow and the defense should improve.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Indiana Pacers played at the slowest tempo in the NBA in their last 25 regular season games. The Pacers changed their style of play in the middle of the season, and it worked very nicely when they slowed things down and turned the game into a halfcourt battle. 

The Indiana Pacers have slowed the game down nicely in the first two games of this series. Those two games have played to the two slowest paced games between the Pacers and Cavs this year. Indiana will try to do the same again here. 

Cleveland and Indiana both rank in the top five in the NBA at least free throws for their opponent. Indiana also ranks in the bottom five in the NBA in least free throws attempted. 

Here's a basic, but strong NBA playoffs first round system that this game fits:

-A total of 191 or higher

-Home team win percentage of 61% or less on the year

-Road team win percentage of 50%-68% on the year

The under is a whopping 77-33 (70%) in the last 110 games that fit this system. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense has started the season on fire, but I don't expect them to be able to keep it up. Several guys in this lineup are hitting far above their career highs, and I expect regression to the mean. The Pirates will come back to the pack. 

Jameson Taillon is a guy I'm very high on though. Taillon has always been a guy with great control all the way up through the minors and in his time in the bigs so far. Taillon is excellent at inducing weak contact as well, which can minimize damage nicely in most situations.

Jake Arrieta obviously has a high upside as well. He hasn't been great so far this year, but he is very capable. 

The weather is a big factor here. Temperatures around 40 degrees with wind blowing in about 15 mph make the under a nice value in my opinion. These early season unders with the wind blowing in on cold days have been great to bettors in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night at Chase Field. This is no longer one of the best hitters parks in the majors. The humidor put in place here has significantly slowed down the scoring here. It will take some time for bettors to get accustomed to Chase Field not being a great hitters park.

Robbie Ray has had bad career numbers at Chase Field, but that was before the humidor. He faces a light hitting Giants team today, and the Giants are likely to be without Evan Longoria. 

Jake Lamb is out for Arizona and he is a key bat in the middle of the lineup. Chris Stratton has pitched really well, and he has been a highly rated prospect in the past. He seems to be coming into his own.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here, and Cuzzi has seen 55.1% of games in his career behind the plate stay under the total. His strikes called percentage are always among the top 10 umpires in the league.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz had the best defense in the NBA by a wide margin in the second half of the season. Utah wasn't good defensively in game one. Oklahoma City made 14/29 shots from 3 point range. Paul George nailed 8/11 from long range. The Thunder averaged better than 1.12 points per possession. Utah allowed less than 1 point per possession over the last 3 months of the season. 

Utah knocked down 11/28 from 3 point range as well. The Thunder were poor in their pick and roll defense, and they should improve in that area in game two.

These two teams didn't play a regular season game that went above 194. Though these teams are much different now (no Roberson for OKC) and that bumps the total up some, game one looks like an aberration to me.

Mitchell has been a star for Utah this year. He is likely to play here, but he is less than 100 percent.

The defenses should improve here, and the tempo should slow as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's offense is still underrated. The depth of this offense is much better than it has been in recent season. Oakland has Stephen Piscotty and Johnathan Lucroy batting eighth and ninth in the order, which shows you how deep this lineup truly is right now. 

Oakland has scored at least 8 runs by themselves in four of their last six games. The A's are rolling offensively, and now they face a young righty in Carson Fulmer who walks a bunch of people. That makes him prone to the big inning. Fulmer has a lot of potential, but he's likely to struggle this year. 

Triggs has been pretty good for the A's so far this year, but I see him as about a league average pitcher. The White Sox offense isn't great, but they are good enough to create some scoring chances.

Both bullpens are bad. I see both as bottom 10 in baseball when it comes to bullpens. There should be scoring chances late.

Mark Wegner is a great over umpire and he's behind the dish here. His strikes called and strikeout/walk ratio consistently make him one of the best over umpires in the business.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's offense is far better this year than it has been in recent years. From top to bottom, this is a lineup that doesn't really have any weaknesses. Oakland ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average. The A's have been really high scoring this year, and their pitching staff isn't very good either. In Oakland's 16 games this year, in 7 of them one team has scored at least 7 runs. 

The White Sox have been inconsistent on offense this year. They do have a lot of quality hitters who are bound to improve in the coming weeks. Guys like Moncada, Davidson, and Abreu are better hitters than they have shown so far this year.

Miguel Gonzalez has lost 2 mph off his fastball, and his swinging strike rate is at a career low of 6.6%. His hard hit allowed rate is also at a career high.

Trevor Cahill walks far too many batters, and he isn't likely to get very deep into the game. The A's middle relief is a weakness.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers host the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday night. Andrew Cashner takes on Francisco Liriano. With the way these two guys are pitching at this stage in their careers, this total is too low. 

Cashner has managed to get outs in some really strange ways the last couple years. Cashner had a 3.40 ERA last year, but his FIP and xFIP were 4.61 and 5.30. He got very lucky. In two starts this year, he has a 2.50 ERA with a 5.67 FIP and a 4.79 xFIP. His swinging strike rate is so low that he is reliant on batters hitting it at fielders, and I don't expect that to continue at the rate it has.

Speaking of swinging strike rates- Francisco Liriano routinely had swinging strike rates of 13.5% or better for several years, but it dropped all the way to 9.6% last year. So far this year it is only 6.8%. Liriano has always had control problems, so not being able to strike out nearly as many is a big problem for him.

The Orioles offense is bad in general, but they are 12th in wOBA against lefties. The Tigers offense isn't as bad as they have looked so far this year.

The wind here is blowing out about 15 mph, and Comerica is a park where wind blowing out has made a huge difference in the past.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Predators and Avalanche have met six times this year. Only one of those contests finished under 5.5 goals, and that was a 4-1 contest. Four of the six have seen at least 7 goals scored. 

Colorado is without their top goalie (Varlamov) and Bernier is one of the weakest goalies in the playoffs. Nashville puts a bunch of shots on goal, and they are good at creating high danger scoring chances. 

Colorado looks to push the pace of the game, and they are even better at forcing the issue when they are on home ice as they are for this one. The Avalanche aren't only without Varlamov. The loss of Erik Johnson hurts this team's defense quite a bit as well. Colorado's defense was never great, and without those two it is much weaker.

Colorado will generate plenty of shots with their fast pace, and Rinne has been below average against Colorado in his career.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers put on a shooting clinic in game one. They shot a ridiculous 18/28 from three point range in blowing out the Heat 130-103. The Heat also made 12/26 from three point range in game one. 

Philadelphia averaged 1.276 points per possession in game one. They averaged 1.074 points per possession on the season. Even if you want to say the 76ers are better on offense now than they were early in the year (I think that is true), the 76ers only average 1.127 points per possession in their last 10 games. Their shooting percentages should regress. Also important to note is that the 76ers only turned the ball over on 8.5% of their possessions in game one, and on the year they average turnovers on 16.1% of possessions. 

Miami shot a little better than average from the floor in game one as well. 

These two defenses ranked third and seventh in the NBA in points per possession allowed in the regular season. There's no reason to expect the great shooting to continue.

Is it possible that the red hot shooting will continue? Of course it is. Still, all of my tempo based efficiency projections point to a total of 209-210 here. This number is inflated because of recent shooting numbers from the 76ers. Though it is a hard bet to make when you see the 76ers throw in everything in game one, I have to take the value on the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers will start Clayton Kershaw on Sunday afternoon against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers are off to a slow start to the season, and this is a big game for them against a hot Arizona team. I don't have to tell you how dominant Clayton Kershaw has been over the years, and his numbers against the Diamondbacks are very good.

Zack Godley has turned into a really nice pitcher for Arizona. He has a 0.64 ERA and an impressive 1.55 FIP through two starts. He throws hard and has good movement on multiple pitches. 

The under is 4-0 in Godley's last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 during game 3 of a series. The under is 6-0 in Kershaw's last 6 starts on six days of rest. A combined 14-0 angle. 

The Diamondbacks weren't very good against lefties last year, and the Dodgers offense has struggled without Justin Turner. 

Expect a low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers host the New Orleans Pelicans in game one of this playoff series.

Portland has been a great under team this year. The Blazers defense has been far better than anyone expected. Portland ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They rank 19th in the NBA in tempo, so they are slower than average. In the last 12 games alone, they rank even slower at 25th in tempo.

New Orleans plays very quickly, and that's why we have a high total here. Still, the Pelicans are a different team than they were earlier this year. The Pelicans have Emeka Okafor playing a lot of minutes now, and he's much better on the defensive end than the offensive end. Solomon Hill fits in that category as well. DeMarcus Cousins was an offensive force, and these guys are a big offensive downgrade. The opposite is true on defense. New Orleans ranks 13th in defensive efficiency for the year, but they are an impressive 3rd in defensive efficiency in their last 15 games.

The most recent and most important game between these two this year was 107-103. I expect a similar type of game here. Things usually slow down a bit in the playoffs, and I think these two defenses are both top ten defenses in the NBA with their current rosters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Tampa Bay has scored 2 runs or less six times already this year. The Rays lack any reliable hitter to contribute in the middle of the order. 

The Philadelphia Phillies offense has been good so far this year, but they haven't exactly faced tremendous pitching staffs thus far. While I think the Phillies offense is pretty good, I think their numbers are overvalued offensively right now.

In Velasquez and Faria we have two young pitchers with a lot of talent. Velasquez had a terrible outing against the Braves in his first start, but a closer look there shows it was some terrible luck. Braves hitters had a batting average on balls in play of .643 (around .300 is average) in that one. Velasquez has a 5.19 ERA, but his FIP is 1.78. 

Faria was crushed by the Red Sox in his last outing, and both of his starts so far this year have been against Boston. The Red Sox have one of the best offenses in baseball, and they'll make a lot of pitchers look bad this year. 

The under is 25-9 in the Rays last 34 home games. The under is 4-1 in Faria's last 5 home starts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins start Jose Berrios here. Berrios broke out in a big way with a great season last year, and his stuff is elite. Berrios has held White Sox hitters to a .132 batting average in 68 at bats. He has tremendous strikeout stuff. Berrios has a 3.29 ERA through two games this season, but his FIP is only 2.27 and his SIERA is 2.71. He's pitched well.

Lucas Giolito has loads of potential. His consistency hasn't been very good yet, but I think he could experience a big breakout season this year like Berrios did a year ago. He has good command of several pitches, and there is lots of movement on all of his pitches.

The weather is a big factor here. The temperature will be in the low 40's with wind blowing in at 8-10 mph. In the past 10 years, in the first month of the season in MLB with winds blowing in at 7 mph or greater and a temperature of 59 degrees or colder the under is hitting 63% of the time. This game fits that system.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Capitals and Columbus Blue Jackets both play at a fast pace. These teams have a history of some high scoring games against each other.

Phillip Grubauer and Sergei Bobrovsky have both been good this year, but Grubauer doesn't have playoff experience and that hurts a lot here. Bobrovsky's career save percentage in the playoffs is below 89%. There are question marks here. 

The over is 5-0 in the Capitals last 5 games when playing on three days of rest or more. The over is 13-3 in the Blue Jackets last 16 road games. 

The first round of the NHL playoffs has actually been good for overs long-term, especially plus money overs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets play on Wednesday night in a game that will decide who gets into the playoffs and who has to watch the playoffs from home.

While both of these teams have been bad overall on defense this year and good on offense, they do both play at a slow pace. The pace of the game should be even slower since the game means so much in this case. This is essentially a one-game playoff to decide who continues.

There are a couple interesting numbers to show that these two are playing harder on defense of late as well. In the last five games, both of these teams rank in the top 9 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In their last 3 games only, both rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are both in the bottom 10 in the league on the year in that number. They have tightened up the defense as the games have gotten more important.

With so much on the line, this is a high total. Look for a game where both teams slow things down and try to take care of the basketball. The defensive effort should be much better than an average NBA game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rays are having a "Bullpen Day" and starting Chirinos here. The Rays bullpen doesn't have very good depth, and that should show itself over time. On the other side, the White Sox start James Shields who I consider one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Shields velocity is down 3 mph from a few years ago, and he isn't getting any swinging strikes or strikeouts. Even a poor offense like the Rays should be able to get to him. The White Sox bullpen isn't good either.

The wind is blowing out and it is a much milder temperature today in Chicago as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are going to be one of the worst offenses in baseball this year. Miami has scored 2 runs or less in four of their last five games. The Marlins have hit lefties pretty well so far this year, but they have been dreadful (.203 average) against right handed pitching.

Jacob Degrom is a very solid right handed pitcher. Degrom has pitched much better in the first half of the season in his career than the second half. Degrom's jump in swinging strike rate in the past year suggests to me that he is pointing toward even better things ahead.

Caleb Smith has good strikeout stuff, but he has struggled with walks. The Mets have a lineup that should be better against right handed pitching than lefties this year, and Smith is a lefty.

DJ Reyburn is the umpire here, and he is a good under umpire. In Reyburn's career, the under is 118-92 in his games behind the dish. He'll help both pitchers on the corners.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Washington Nationals host the New York Mets here in a divisional rivalry. The home plate umpire for this game is Mark Ripperger and he is one of the best under umpires in the majors. His strike zone will benefit the pitchers quite a bit through this contest.

The weather is a huge factor. With temperatures dropping in the low 40's during the game, and winds of 10-12 mph blowing in, this is a great spot for an under.

There is a strong weather angle that this game fits: In the first 20 games of the season when the temperature is 58 degrees or lower and the wind is blowing in at least 8 mph and the total is 7.5 or higher- the under is a whopping 120-64 (65.2%).

Both bullpens are good and I think this is a good price on the under given the umpire draw and the weather.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Indians lineup isn't producing right now. They'll be much better over the course of the season, but the conditions in Cleveland right now aren't helping at all. The temperature is expected to be about 30 degrees at time of first pitch here and the wind blowing in at 10 mph. 

The first two games in this series have had similar weather, and those games were 3-2 and 1-0. 

Mike Clevinger has been an underrated piece for the Indians. The Royals lineup will be one of the worst in the majors this year.

The under is 45-22-3 in the Indians last 72 games vs. an AL Central foe. The under is 20-7-1 in Clevinger's last 28 starts.

Ted Barrett is behind the plate and he is a bit of an under umpire as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NHL Totals TAKEDOWN* The Colorado Avalanche host the St. Louis Blues in a game that will decide who gets the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. This kind of extremely important game between two quality teams is a strong under angle in the NHL at the end of the regular season.

St. Louis has had issues on offense all year. The Blues are 24th in the NHL in goals scored this year. They are 30th in the NHL in power play goals scored. 

Colorado has gotten the fewest shots on goal of any team in the NHL this year. The Avalanche have been fortunate to score as many times as they have. 

Things should tighten up in a game that means so much to both sides. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs host the Portland Blazers in a battle of teams who will be fighting hard for the playoff standings. Portland is in the playoffs, but they are working to secure the third seed. San Antonio could still miss the playoffs if they can't things around late in the regular season.

These types of games have proven very good to under bettors in the past, and I see no reason why that would change going forward. As things tighten up and slow down, the under holds value.

I leaned strongly to the under here to start with and I have to play it after I see the referee crew for this contest. All 3 refs are big under guys. Between the 3 refs, if you had played the under in all of their career games as a ref- you would be up 79 units. 

The under is 5-0 in Blazers last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 4-0 in the Spurs last 4 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. A 9-0 angle.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Washington Nationals host the New York Mets early Saturday afternoon in a game that will be played in conditions that clearly favor the under. The wind will be blowing in about 12 mph during this game and the temperature will be in the low 40's. In past years, wind in during cold games has been a great moneymaker early in the season. It has started out the same way this year.

Steven Matz has allowed zero runs in 15 innings pitched in Washington. Matz is coming off a bad start, but I do believe he is at least a decent starter, and these conditions should help. Matz has a great 3.10 ERA in the first half of the season during his career.

Gio Gonzalez has a career 3.47 ERA in the first half. Gonzalez has a great 2.93 ERA against the Mets in 23 starts. 

Marty Foster is the home plate umpire here and in his career behind home plate, the under is hitting at a 54.3% clip. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I see Luis Perdomo as a solid sinker-baller who can keep the ball in the park and induce a lot of double play balls. Perdomo fell victim to some terrible luck in his first outing. He allowed a batting average on balls in play of .583. After the game his ERA sits at 11.25 with his FIP at only 2.46. 

Lance McCullers Jr. is an elite pitcher when pitching at home. In his career when pitching at home, McCullers has a ridiculous 2.39 ERA. His ERA is 3.09 overall in the first half of the season in his career as well.

The Astros bullpen is top three or four in the majors. I see the Padres bullpen as better than league average.

I think this one is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Total of the MONTH* The Cleveland Cavaliers go to Philadelphia to take on the 76ers on Friday night. This has turned into a massive game for both teams. These teams are jockeying for third place in the Eastern Conference, and they are just barely ahead of Indiana who sits in 5th place in the Eastern Conference.

Late in the season when two good teams play against each other, I like to look to the under. Here's a great system that tracks something like this. 

*Late in the season (between game 70 and 80 in the season) when teams in the same conference who have both won 60% or more of their games meet the under is a whopping 94-58-2 since 2005. That's 62% wins for the under.

Cleveland has slowed down of late. They are playing at the 28th quickest tempo out of 30 teams in the NBA in their last five games. Philly is only allowing 0.922 points per possession in their last five games, and in their last ten games they are easily first in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

With this game meaning a lot to both teams, I think they'll both be trying hard on defense. The pace should slow a bit as well. 

The under is 11-1 in the Cavs last 12 games when playing on 0 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the 76ers last 4 playing on one day of rest. A 20-1 trend.

Take the under. TOP Total of the MONTH

*3 Star Play Under* The Canucks and Coyotes have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. Nine of the last ten games between these two have finished at 5 goals or less. Raanta is an above average goaltender for the Coyotes and their defense has been much improved in recent weeks.

The under is 15-4-2 in the last 21 meetings between these two in Vancouver.

I see this being a low scoring game between two teams who are offensively challenged.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NHL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Florida Panthers host the Boston Bruins. This is a must win game for the Panthers to try to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. 

Late in the season when teams are fighting for a playoff spot or playoff positioning- the under has had great value. A couple systems show this to be true

*Between games 80 and 82 of the season- A home team with a win percentage between 50% and 60% (teams likely to be battling for the playoffs) against a visitor with a win percentage of 50% or higher. The under is 32-11 last 43 in this spot. The under is 10-1 in the last 11 contests that match this spot. 

*Between games 80-82. Both teams with a 50% or higher win percentage and the total is 5.5 or higher. The under is 37-18-3  (67.3%) since 2006. 

Florida has been a home under machine of late, especially against top teams. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Florida. A 13-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Jersey Devils can clinch a playoff berth with a win here. Toronto has been good all season, and they are expected to start their leading goaltender (Anderson) in this one. 

Late in the season when teams are fighting for a playoff spot or playoff positioning- the under has had great value. A couple systems show this to be true

*Between games 80 and 82 of the season- A home team with a win percentage between 50% and 60% (teams likely to be battling for the playoffs) against a visitor with a win percentage of 50% or higher. The under is 32-11 last 43 in this spot. The under is 10-1 in the last 11 contests that match this spot. 

*Between games 80-82. Both teams with a 50% or higher win percentage and the total is 5.5 or higher. The under is 37-18-3  (67.3%) since 2006. 

This game fits these systems. I see this being one where the importance of the game for the home team makes it be more tightly played.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play on Over* The weather should be a big factor here. Temperatures are chilly, but the wind is howling out to center field. Winds of 20 mph at a minimum are expected to be going all through the contest.

The Twins offense is very solid from top to bottom. I don't see any big weaknesses here. Minnesota should score a lot of runs this year.

Pittsburgh should get a better season out of Polanco this year, and they have some decent young hitters in this lineup.

Ivan Nova and Jake Odorizzi are both pitchers I rate as lower than the league average. Nova is a pitch to contact guy, and Odorizzi  has given up a ton of home runs in the last couple years. 

Both of these bullpens are league average or slightly below on the whole. There should be scoring chances late here as well.

At this low number with the weather- I'm on the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 NCAA BB Championship Game CASH* The Villanova Wildcats shot the lights out on Saturday at the Alamodome. I had the under in that one and lost thanks to their sharpshooting. Kansas' defense was very weak in that game, and the Wildcats buried a bunch of open three-point jumpers. 

Villanova is certainly capable of shooting the ball really well against anyone. This is unquestionably the best offense in the country. Still, this is a neutral court and they are playing against a team that ranks number 3 in KenPomeroy's defensive efficiency ratings. Michigan has the highest ranked defense Villanova has played against all year.

Every number I ran for this one had the total at 141.5 or 142. It's very rare for totals to be higher than my projections in the NCAA Tournament with neutral sites tending to be a fairly big positive for the under. 

This number is higher because of the great shooting from Villanova on Saturday. I'll look to play back on the under after this inflation of the number.

Xavier Simpson is a good defender for Michigan and the Wolverines should be able to put a lot more pressure on the ball and defend the 3 point line a lot better than Kansas. 

The Wolverines are 324th in overall tempo and Villanova is middle of the pack. This game shouldn't be played very fast. 

Both teams do a great job defending without fouling and neither team gets many offensive rebounds.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Total of the WEEK* The Los Angeles Clippers host the Indiana Pacers in an early Sunday afternoon game at Staples Center. The Clippers are on the outside looking in for the playoffs, and this is a game they absolutely have to win. The Pacers are playing for seeding in a tight Eastern Conference race. Both teams have plenty of reasons to be ready to go for this one.

The Indiana Pacers rank dead last in the NBA in tempo of late. Indiana has made a significant change to their style in the second half of the year. The Pacers are last in the NBA in tempo by more than one full possession per game in their last 10 games. 

It's difficult for Indiana games to get this high scoring without some really high shooting numbers because of their ability to slow the game down. The last time these two teams played- there were 213 points scored and the Clippers shot 55% from the floor in that one.

The Pacers have had 18 straight games stay under this total in regulation. 

Early Sunday games have been great under plays in the long run especially in West Coast games. This one gets the added benefit of being a game that both teams badly need when it comes to playoff positioning. 

Take the under. TOP Total of the WEEK 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams are good offenses. They both clearly have the potential to score a lot of points. This is a huge game though, with the winner set to play for a national title, and this kind of a total is often hard to get to in a game of this magnitude.

Villanova has only allowed one team to score more than 1 point per possession against them in the NCAA Tournament (West Virginia averaged 1.03 points per possession). Jay Wright has said of late that he has been extremely happy with the progress his team has made defensively.

Kansas played their best defensive game of the year last game against Duke. The Jayhawks aren't great on defense, but they are likely better than their numbers on the season would suggest.

Both teams rarely get to the line and both teams rarely foul. If the jump shots aren't falling as much as normal, this one should be lower scoring than expected. This is played in the Alamodome which is a very unique shooters backdrop.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers host the Houston Astros on Friday night. While this is a hitter's ballpark overall, this park plays a lot different with cooler weather and wind blowing in.

The under is a whopping 54-26-7 in the last 87 games in Texas' home games with a temperature of 83 degrees or cooler and wind blowing in from center field. It is expected to be 64 degrees with wind blowing in during this game.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here, and by record he has been the single best under umpire in the bigs in the last few years. In his career, the under is 57.3% in Kulpa's games behind the plate.

Keuchel is healthy and set for a great year for the Astros. Fister had a decent season last year for the Red Sox and should be helped by Kulpa being behind the dish.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* North Texas and San Francisco play game three of a series to win the College Basketball Invitational. This is a unique format and this game is for all the marbles.

Early in these smaller postseason tournaments, the over has had great value through the years. That isn't the case late in the tournament though. Why? These teams want to be here now, and they want to win the tournament.

The under is 47-26 in the last 73 games in the semifinals or finals of the NIT/CBI/CIT Tournaments. 

These two teams both excel at getting defensive rebounds, so second chance opportunities should be hard to come by. They both shoot a lot of 3 pointers, and both defenses are very good against the 3 ball.

This line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Utah/Penn State NIT CASH* The Utah Utes and Penn State Nittany Lions meet on Thursday night in the NIT Finale. 

Penn State's defense ranks 18th overall in defensive efficiency in the country. Utah ranks 55th in defensive efficiency for the year, but if you look only at recent games Utah's defense has been much better than that.

Utah's average length of possession puts them 320th out of 351 in tempo, so they are very slow. Penn State is 248th in that same statistic. The tempo should stay slow here, and both defenses will be plenty motivated.

The NIT is played at Madison Square Garden which is the best under venue in college basketball. It's a tough shooting backdrop here, and the numbers prove it.

In the NIT semifinals/finals- totals of 129.5 or higher have gone 26-7 to the under against the closing line.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Opening Day Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Dodgers start Clayton Kershaw here. Kershaw is amazing against everyone, but he's at his absolute best against the Giants. 

Kershaw has a ridiculous 1.60 ERA in 41 games against the Giants. That's 297 and 1/3 innings of domination. I don't see any reason to believe Kershaw will be any less dominant here. Backing Kershaw is a top five bullpen for the Dodgers.

Ty Blach has been great against NL West teams. Blach has allowed only a .286 weighted on base average (wOBA) against the Dodgers. The Dodgers offense is without Justin Turner due to injury, and that's a huge loss in the middle of the order.

The under is 11-1 in Blach's last 12 games against an NL West foe. The under is 23-7-2 in Kershaw's last 32 games started against the Giants.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. The Boston Celtics are fifth. Utah is 14th in offensive efficiency in that time. Boston is 25th.

The Celtics continue to defend well, but without Irving and Smart this offense has really struggled. Marcus Morris is very questionable for this game as well. 

On the year, Boston is number one in overall defensive efficiency in the NBA. Utah is number two. 

Utah's defense is on another level at home. They are giving up 1.054 points per possession on the road this year. They are allowing only 0.98 points per possession at home. That is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency at home.

Boston is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the road allowing only 1.014 points per possession on the road.

When Kyrie Irving isn't on the floor this year, Boston's tempo has been the slowest of any team in the league. 

Signs point to a low scoring game between two very good defenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The NIT is a tournament where we've seen a ton of overs through the years, but once you get late in the tournament things change drastically. Earlier in the tournament, many of the teams aren't very interested. Once you get to the semifinals, the teams who are there are plenty motivated to win the whole thing. 

Also of note is the fact that this game is played at Madison Square Garden. This is the best under arena in the country. 

In the NIT Semifinals/Finals- the under is 24-7 in the last 31 games with a total of 130 or higher. 

Madison Square Garden unders are at about 60% in all neutral site games in college basketball in the last ten seasons. 

Penn State and Mississippi State are both teams who are significantly better on defense than offense. Look for this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors host the Utah Jazz on Sunday night. Utah lit up the Golden State defense for 129 points in their last meeting. I don't think Golden State will forget that one. 

Golden State's injury issues have gotten severe. Draymond Green is expected to play here, but Curry, Thompson, and Durant are all out. Other key backups are questionable as well. Golden State's potent offense isn't nearly as potent right now. In the last five games with all these injuries, Golden State is 22nd in offensive efficiency in the NBA. Defensively, they are playing very well. They are 4th in the NBA in that time on defense. Green coming back helps the defense a bunch.

Utah has been the best defense in the NBA by a wide margin in the last ten games. Expect that strong defense to continue here. Utah will look to slow the game down as well.

The numbers show Sunday is the best under day in the NBA in the long run by a large margin. The under has proven to have big value in the NBA late in the year when two good teams face off. This fits both and I like the value here quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Top Total of the WEEK* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Blazers meet in OKC on Sunday in a game that means a ton in the playoff standings. Right now, the Blazers are third in the Western Conference. Oklahoma City is fourth and only one game behind them. 

The Thunder have been a great under team against other top teams. The under is 12-3 in their last 15 vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is also 19-9 in their last 28 vs. a team with a winning record overall.

This is a higher total than any of their first three meetings against each other were. I don't think this one should be the highest total yet this year when this game means so much to both teams and we are near the end of the regular season. 

Sunday is the best under day in the NBA in the long run by a large margin. The under has proven to have big value in the NBA late in the year when two good teams face off. This fits both and I like the value here quite a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Islanders and Chicago Blackhawks meet in a game that should feature a ton of shots on goal and high quality scoring chances.

The numbers show that late in the season two teams with nothing to play for makes the over have more value. Neither of these teams have anything to play for now.

These are two of the worst defenses in the NHL. Both of these teams have been in terrible form on defense of late too. Chicago has allowed 26 goals in their last 6 contests. They have allowed a minimum of 5 in each of those. The Islanders have allowed 6 goals or more three times in their last five.

Last time these two met it was a 7-3 final with 85 shots on goal. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Friday Late Night BAILOUT* The Boston Celtics are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season as a whole. The Portland Blazers are 7th. Portland and Boston both play slightly slower than the league average as far as tempo. 

Kyrie Irving is out for the Celtics here. Also out are Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown. In their last five games without those guys- Boston is averaging only 0.981 points per possession on offense. That is 28th in the NBA. 

Portland is a good offensive team, but Boston's defense is solid and the Blazers have shown to be a team that slows down the pace if they have the lead late.

Two good teams late in the season is a good under angle. From game 60-80 of the regular season- when both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher, the under is cashing at a really impressive 61% clip in the last ten years.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils have switched to the zone, and it has worked very well. Duke's defense now ranks eighth in the country in defensive efficiency. Since they switched to the zone, they have been top five in the country defensively. 

Syracuse ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Orange use that excellent matchup zone to keep opponents uncomfortable. The Orange are also slowing the game down more than ever in the NCAA Tournament. All 3 of their games have paced to 60 possessions. 

Syracuse relies heavily on getting to the line to get some offensive production. Duke is first in the nation when it comes to defending without fouling. 

The under in the Sweet 16 overall since 2005 is 56-46. The under when a team is favored by 7.5 or more is 17-7. Duke is favored big here, and they do a nice job slowing the game down when they have a big lead late.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Villanova Wildcats were easily the best offense in the nation this year. Villanova is averaging a whopping 1.276 points per possession on the season. Villanova has a wealth of long range shooters. They have five guys who put up a ton of 3's and all of them shoot 39.1% or better from long range.

West Virginia this year is the best offense Bob Huggins has had since coming to West Virginia. They rank 10th in the country in offensive efficiency. Jevon Carter is a big reason why. Carter shoots 40% from long range and 86% from the line. Daxter Miles has become a nice offensive player as well. 

West Virginia is much weaker on defense this year than they have been the last two years. They are 300th out of 351 teams in the country in 3 point field goal percentage defense. West Virginia also fouls at one of the 15 highest rates in the country. Villanova shoots 40.2% from long range and 77.4% from the free throw line. Barring a rare off night shooting, Nova should put up quite a few points here.

Villanova's defense has typically been top five in the nation of late, but they are 20th this year. West Virginia should get a lot of second chances against a Nova frontline that doesn't have as much bulk. 

West Virginia will keep using the press to push the pace, and I think this one goes over the number.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT Totals CASH* The Indiana Pacers rank 29th out of 30 teams in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games. Indiana also ranks fourth in defensive efficiency in that 10 game period. The Pacers rate 25th in offensive efficiency during that span.

The Clippers rank fourth in the NBA in tempo in their last ten. The Clippers are 12th in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have actually been better defensively in non-conference games. The Pacers have played two possessions per game slower in their home games as they do a better job controlling the tempo. The Clippers have played one possession per game slower on the road as well.

In their last 19 games the Pacers have played one game that has gone over this posted total.

This is a late season game that means quite a bit to both teams- and that is a positive for the under. The Clippers still have a chance to get in the playoffs, and the Pacers are in a big battle for positioning in the Eastern Conference.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz have been an under machine at home in recent years. Utah is always good defensively, but they are elite defensively on their home floor. The Jazz have been the best defense in the NBA at home for the season as a whole.

Of late Utah's defense has been on a whole different level. Utah is allowing only 0.908 points per possession in their last ten games. That's easily best in the NBA. In that time frame, the Spurs are second on defense and they are allowing 0.997 points per possession.

Utah's offense is 20th in efficiency in their last ten games. Atlanta's offense is 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. The Hawks have actually been better on defense on the road than at home this year.

Utah games have gone under the total at a high rate against bad teams. In Utah's last 181 home games against a team with a win percentage of less than 50%- the under is 111-70 (61.3% unders). It is 6-1 in the last 7 in this spot. 

Look for Utah to control the style of play here and keep this one under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels have been one of my favorite under teams in the last few seasons. Randy Bennett's team plays the same style of basketball every year. They are a very slow paced team who is extremely efficient on offense and solid on defense. 

St. Mary's ranks 341st out of 351 in the nation in tempo. They will slow this game down. 

Washington has struggled offensively this year. This is a team that shoots a lot of contested jumpers. Washington averages 1.064 points per possession at home. They average only 0.945 points per possession on the road. The Huskies zone defense is unique and St. Mary's has been slightly less efficient against zones than man to man defense this year.

I expect St. Mary's to win this game and the spread suggests a fairly comfortable win. If that is the case, it helps the under. The Gaels are excellent at slowing the game down when they have a lead in the second half.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines are very good at controlling the pace of the game. Michigan is 332nd in the nation in tempo. The Wolverines are 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. It is their improvement on defense that has made this team so much better this year.

Michigan is elite (top 3 in the country) in transition defense. Houston tries to get points in transition, but those should be a lot harder to come by here than normal. The Cougars typically take advantage of offensive rebounds as well, but Michigan is very good on the defensive boards.

Neither team is very good at getting to the free throw line, and I've noticed that refs have in general had a slower whistle in the NCAA Tournament than in the regular season. 

Both teams like to utilize big men at the top of the key as a passer, but both defenses have athletic big men to matchup with them well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils zone defense has been tremendous. Since they moved to that zone, Duke has been a great under team. It has been hard for the oddsmakers to adjust to their slowing teams down so much better on the defensive end. 

Rhode Island has had major problems shooting it from outside down the stretch. They shot only 35.4% from long range for the year. They shot 32.5% from three point range in A 10 action this year. 

Rhode Island is good when using full court pressure at slowing the game down with zone pressure. Look for them to extend that pressure to try to slow Duke's offense some here. Duke has committed an unexpectedly high number of turnovers on the year. 

Duke doesn't foul on defense. The Blue Devils are 2nd in the country at defending without fouling. 

Rhode Island's pressure should create turnovers here, and Duke's zone should force Rhode Island into a lot of bad looks in halfcourt sets.

This is played at a neutral site. When Duke has been favored by 9 or more and the total is 142 or higher in the last 10 years- the under has cashed at 59%.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Butler Bulldogs square off in what should be a really good game on Friday afternoon. Arkansas always looks to run, while Butler plays at a moderate pace, but these two teams are more similar than you would think.

Both of these teams are significantly better on offense than defense. Arkansas is 17th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are 100th in defensive efficiency. Butler is 296th in the nation at defending beyond the 3 point line, and Arkansas is shooting better than 40% from the 3 point line on the year. 

Arkansas is great in transition on offense, and they are also poor in transition defense. Butler uses a lot of cutters in their halfcourt sets, and Arkansas has struggled on defense against offenses that use similar plays.

Butler is great at the free throw line at 77%. Arkansas fouls at one of the highest rates in the country. 

Look for the offenses to have the upper hand. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia State Panthers have a very good coach in Ron Hunter. Hunter has his team playing an excellent zone defense. According to Synergy, the Georgia State zone ranks among the top 10% of zone defenses played in the country this year.

Cincinnati is second in the country in defensive efficiency. The Bearcats contest everything well, and Georgia State isn't going to get a bunch of open looks from 3 point range like they usually get in league play. 

Georgia State isn't likely to speed the game up when they are packing in a zone and trying to make Cincinnati beat them over the top. Cincinnati ranks 322nd overall in tempo in the country. 

Cincinnati and Georgia State have both played some very low scoring games on neutral courts so far this season. Neutral courts and a lot on the line are usually good for unders. Bridgestone Arena hosts this one, and this is probably the best under venue in the first round of the NCAA Tournament because of a tricky shooting backdrop. The under is 36-26 in the last 62 at Bridgestone.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Cougars play in an American Athletic Conference where nearly no one is willing to run with them. Houston wants to play quickly, and they'll get the chance here against San Diego State. 

San Diego State Coach Brian Dutcher made it a point of emphasis for the team to play quickly this year. The Aztecs rank 70th in shortest average possession length in the country. They will look to push in this one.

Houston is excellent on the offensive glass, and San Diego State hasn't played many teams who are good on the offensive glass. I expect Houston to create plenty of second chance opportunities.

Both defenses are pretty solid, but their numbers may look a bit better than they actually are because they don't play against many good offenses in their league. 

I think the pace will be there and this line is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs have gotten much better defensively late in the season. Mark Few expressed concern about their defense midway through the year, and the defense improved in a big way near the end of the year. Gonzaga has plenty of athleticism and length to contest jumpers. 

UNC Greensboro plays a very unique zone press that is designed to slow the game down. They will look to make Gonzaga take a lot of time getting the ball up court, and prevent transition baskets. According to Synergy, UNC Greensboro is the number one ranked transition defense in the country. Since Gonzaga gets a bunch of baskets in transition normally, this should give them some trouble.

This game is played at 11:30 am local time, and that is a help for the under as well, especially on a neutral site.

Look for this one to be a little sloppier than expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies offense is reliant on being able to get to the line. Washington takes a lot of bad jump shots, and if they aren't getting to the free throw line for freebies they can go through scoring droughts. 

Boise State has been very good at defending without fouling this year. They are first in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, which is huge for them. Washington struggles with defensive rebounding out of the zone, but Boise State hasn't been good at getting offensive boards.

Washington is 152nd in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 63rd in defensive efficiency. Boise State is 78th in offensive efficiency and Washington is 42nd in defensive efficiency. 

With the line inflated with over money coming in early here, I like the value on the under.

I see these as two teams who are good at making the other team work hard for each shot. I suspect these two will be invested in this game and that is good for defense and the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames host the St Francis PA Red Flash tonight in a CIT contest. Unlike the NIT, there are no rule changes in this tournament so it will just be the normal 3 point shot length and normal foul situations. 

Postseason smaller tournaments have been great to over bettors in the past, and I think this is another spot where the over holds value. UIC plays at the 21st fastest tempo in the country. St Francis PA is 297th on defense when it comes to efficiency, but they are a solid 133rd on the offensive end.

UIC will turn this into a track meet, and they should win as well. St Francis will have to keep playing quick to try to catch up.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Mary's Gaels play at the 341st tempo in the country out of 351 teams. St. Mary's isn't likely to be one of those teams who change the way they play in the NIT or a smaller postseason tournament (many teams do play faster). Still, their number has been bet up quickly just like the other games in these tournaments.

The NIT is experimenting with a lot of rule changes this year. One is moving the 3 point line back 20 inches. That in and of itself should help the under a bit especially in a game where both teams shoot a bunch of 3 point shots. The game being played in quarters shouldn't make much of a difference here. Neither of these teams foul very much.

Southeastern Louisiana has had major trouble scoring against good teams this year. They could only score 50 points against Valpo and only 50 points against Notre Dame. SE Louisiana plays at the 298th tempo in the country.

St. Mary's is well known for slowing things down to an extremely slow level once they have a big lead. They should control this game from the beginning.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Davidson Wildcats and Rhode Island Rams have met twice this year. The first game was 131 points and the second was 124 points. This one is on a neutral site, and Davidson must win this game to get into the NCAA Tournament. If anything, I would expect a slower tempo in this game. 

Davidson has played their first two A 10 Tournament games at only 56 and 58 possessions. They averaged a whopping 1.39 points per possession on Friday and a ridiculous 1.41 points per possession on Saturday.

Rhode Island has given Davidson trouble in the past with their aggressive defense that doesn't allow many looks from three point range. Rhode Island is first in the A 10 in 3 point field goal percentage defense. Davidson shoots the most 3's in the conference, and they are very good at them.

Davidson plays at the 335th tempo out of 351 teams in the country. Rhode Island is middle of the pack at 145th. 

In the last seven meetings between these two teams, only one has topped 131 points in regulation. In a game of this importance, I'll side with the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies take on the Eastern Washington Eagles in a battle to decide who gets to the NCAA Tournament from the Big Sky Conference. 

Montana is the best defense in this conference by a large margin. Eastern Washington is third in the conference in defensive efficiency.

Eastern Washington slows the tempo down almost as much as anyone in the conference. Montana has had some games where they go very slowly as well. I think a game of this importance is likely to play to a slower tempo.

Both teams are playing for the third straight day, and conference tournament finals where both teams are tired have been strong to the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*This line has moved down since I selected it this morning. I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 137.5 and 3 star down to 135.5. Thank you.* 

*4 Star Play Under* Both regular season meetings between these two stayed more than 10 points under this posted total. Now, they are playing at Honda Center in Anaheim, which is clearly a big under facility. This is a hockey arena with tough shooting backdrops. These are two teams who are accustomed to playing in small arenas. The shooting numbers should be expected to be lower than average.

Both teams play at a relatively slow pace, and this is obviously a very important game for both of them with it being win or go home.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The line drop here has been so big that I have to take the over. These two teams commit more fouls than any other teams in the Big 12. There should be a ton of free throws attempted in this one. Both West Virginia and Texas Tech are excellent on the offensive glass, and both struggle with defensive rebounding. Second chance points should be key here as well.

The Red Raiders defense for the season has been great, but in their last few games it has fallen off badly. They are allowing 0.914 points per possession on the year. In their last five games, they are allowing 1.141 points per possession. 

Both regular season games went over this number, and this isn't an arena that has been strong to the under like some of the other neutral sites. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Utah Valley and Grand Canyon played twice during the regular season. Those two games finished with 124 and 119 points. It was primarily because the game was played at a very slow pace in each of those contests. 

This game means a bunch to both teams. They are one win away for playing for a NCAA Tournament berth. This is on a neutral floor which is a good thing for the under as well.

Grand Canyon is number one in the nation in 3 point percentage defense. Utah Valley relies a lot on 3 pointers on the offensive end.

I think this line is several points too high considering the situation and the style these two have played at in the first two contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pelicans are expected to be without Anthony Davis here. That's a massive hit to their offense. Look for Emeka Okafor to get a lot more minutes here, and Okafor is much better on the defensive end than offense. 

The Pelicans are 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 10 games. Washington is dead last in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games.

The Wizards have consistently slowed the game down without John Wall. Otto Porter Jr. is a gametime decision as well.

The referee crew is very strong to the under in their career stats.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets have been much better defensively this year, and they have been great defensively of late. Clint Capela has been key in the frontcourt on defense. 

Houston has actually been better on the road on defense than at home. They are third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in road games. They are 6th in the league in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games overall.

Toronto is second in the league in defensive efficiency in their last 12 games. They are first in the league in defensive efficiency at home. 

Also important is that both teams haven't been playing very fast of late. Toronto ranks 22nd in the NBA in tempo in their last 12 contests. Houston ranks 27th in the NBA in tempo in their last 12 games. 

Both of these offenses are clearly excellent, but this number is very high for two underrated defenses and two teams that aren't playing as quickly as most people believe.

The under is 19-6-1 in the Rockets last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning record when the total is 211.5 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers are third in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are 255th in tempo as well. This is a team that is good at slowing the game down and winning with ball control and solid defense.

Mississippi State made its first 6 three pointers last night against LSU. That's usually Mississippi State's weakness is long range shooting. It's unlikely they will shoot that well again, especially against a great defense.

The Scottrade Center has been a great under venue through the years. I expect a slow pace and solid defense on both ends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Richmond Spiders defense has been awful down the stretch. Only two of their last ten games have stayed under this total despite them not playing at a very fast pace. 

St. Bonaventure has played at an extremely quick tempo all year. The Bonnies have multiple long range shooters who should get lots of open looks against this Richmond defense.

The first game between these two was played to a pace of 81 possessions. It was 97-88. This one shouldn't be that high, but I think this total is too low. 

Both teams are clearly better on offense than defense and the sharp money here is on the over ( more often than not the sharps like the under). 72% of bets and 99% of money is on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters have the best ranked defense in the Big West. UC Irvine ranks fifth in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. This is a tremendous defensive team.

Hawaii was third in the Big West in the regular season in defensive efficiency. They are great at forcing turnovers, and the biggest weakness of the UC Irvine offense is their problems with turnovers.

The two games during the regular season both finished at 123 points. These are two teams that can go through some long droughts due to subpar shooting numbers. 

Factoring in the venue gives the under more value. The Honda Center is a massive arena built for hockey. In the last 47 neutral site games played at Honda Center the under is 32-15. These Big West teams aren't accustomed to playing in huge arenas. 

I expect the defenses to have the upper hand in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Mississippi State and LSU both need to win a minimum of two games in the SEC Tournament to even have a thought of getting in the NCAA Tournament. These are teams who have proven they can win big games (LSU against Michigan and Mississippi State at Texas A&M). This isn't one of those games where both teams know their season is over and they don't care. 

This one is at Scottrade Center in St. Louis. The Scottrade Center has been an amazing venue for under bettors. This is a huge arena made for hockey and the shooting backdrop isn't favorable. The under is a whopping 47-20 in the last 67 games played at Scottrade Center with a total of 124.5 or higher. This is the first year for the SEC Tournament at this venue. 

Both of these teams prefer playing at a relatively slow pace, so I don't expect a fast tempo here. They just played to a 66 possession game this past Saturday and it stayed well under this total. This game means a lot more to both teams and the defenses should be engaged here.

Take the under.