*4 Star NCAA BB Total* The Pepperdine Waves play tremendous defense. They have a long athletic team who makes it very difficult to score. Pepperdine often gets bogged down on offense themselves, but they have been winning a lot of games due to their hard work on defense. Drake plays at an extremely slow tempo, and the Bulldogs will be playing against the best defense they have played this year. Take the under. *Note- Shorter writeups than normal today due to traveling for the holidays- Happy Thanksgiving!*

*4 Star NCAA BB Total Value* The Denver Pioneers have been one of the ten slowest teams in terms of tempo every single year for a long time. They aren't going to speed up for anyone. Idaho State has played faster teams so far this year so they have high scoring games, but that should change in this one. I had this total at 129 points so I see plenty of value for a play. Take the under. *Note- Shorter writeups than normal today due to traveling for the holidays- Happy Thanksgiving!*

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Weber State Wildcats have a good team this year, and it starts with a very strong frontcourt. Weber State has slowed their tempo down in the past couple years. When Damian Lillard was at Weber State, they were a team who played quickly, but now that their strength is in the post instead of at the guard they are playing a halfcourt style. 

Drake has had two games go into overtime already, which has skewed their numbers to make them look like a high scoring team. Drake actually ranks in the bottom 25 teams in the nation (there are 351 overall) in terms of pace. The Bulldogs will be looking to slow this game down, and Weber State is likely to be happy with that as well.

The under is 19-7 in Drake's last 26 games at a neutral site. Shooting percentages are generally a little lower at neutral sites. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total Value* Ohio State has seemingly decided to slow the tempo of the game down this year. With an athletic roster, I'm not really sure why they are doing it, but that's been the game plan so far. Ohio State lost at home to UT Arlington last game, and now they come back to play Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs like to speed the game up, but so do Mt. St. Mary's and UT Arlington. Ohio State didn't let either of those teams play fast as they prefer to. Look for the Buckeyes defense to improve following that ugly loss to UT Arlington. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Cal Golden Bears have a very athletic team this year and they will look to get up and down much more than they have in past years. With Brown and Rabb added to an already talented roster, Cal has the second most talent in the Pac 12 behind Arizona. The Golden Bears are likely to have a bunch of success on offense here. Cal was flat in their last game, a win over East Carolina. Coach Martin's team should be ready for this one. Sam Houston State has been torched on defense by both SMU and Southern Illinois. It should happen again here. This total is a few points too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The San Diego State Aztecs are a grind it out team. Steve Fisher gets his team to work hard on the defensive end like no other coach in the country can. No matter who comes to play for Fisher, they will work hard on defense, or they won't see the floor. San Diego State still slows the game down, and they still have trouble scoring. The Aztecs lost at home to Little Rock last game. The Aztecs should show up ready to play here, and I think that will mean some great defense. East Carolina has been a good under team in recent years so I like this matchup to be very low scoring. The under is 36-16 in San Diego State's last 52 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* I successfully played the 'over' with the Knicks in their first two games of the season. Derek Fisher talked a lot in the offseason about the Knicks picking up the pace this year. They did just that in the first week of the season. Gradually though, as the season has gone on the Knicks have slowed their tempo back down. New York was at nearly a 100 possessions per game tempo in the first week. In their past 3 games, they are at a tempo of less than 95 possessions per game. That's a very big difference. Miami is ranked second in the NBA in defensive efficiency and they play at the fourth slowest pace in the league. Look for a slow tempo and a game that stays low scoring.

The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning record. The under is 10-1 in their last 11 games overall. A 20-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late NIGHT BAILOUT* The Stanford Cardinal lost their best two players from last year's team. Stanford is likely to have trouble scoring this season. This is their first road game of the season, and with a young team that should prove difficult. St. Mary's also lost a bunch of talent, and the Gaels are going to be way down this year. Randy Bennett is a good coach and he is going to slow this game down and play a halfcourt style that the Gaels prefer. I made this number 140 points, and I think there is quite a bit of value here. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Arizona Cardinals offense has been dynamic this year. Carson Palmer gets to play against his old team here, and I expect Arizona to move the ball well. The Bengals defense hasn't played against too many elite offenses yet, and they will on Sunday. While the Bengals defense is solid, I don't think they are as good as the numbers make them look so far this season.

On the other end, Arizona's defense has been giving up quite a few big plays. Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense definitely looked bad last weekend, but the Bengals offense has been very good overall this year. Tyler Eifert had 3 critical drops last week, but Eifert has been a huge difference maker for the offense this season. I expect him to have a big game in a good matchup for him.

Expect a close game where both offenses move the ball throughout the game. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* SMU and Yale are both defensive teams who like to slow the game down. This total is a few points too high. I made this one 135 points. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Oakland Raiders passing attack has been really fantastic this year. Oakland struggled against one of the best defenses in the NFL last week, but look at how they have done against other defenses this year. Oakland scored 35 points on Pittsburgh. They scored 34 against a good Jets defense. They scored 37 against Baltimore and 37 against San Diego. Detroit's defense is giving up 29 points per game.

The Detroit Lions can't run the ball, but they can throw it. Detroit has one of the best receivers in the game in Calvin Johnson, and no one in this Oakland secondary can slow him down. The Raiders secondary has given up the second most yards per game through the air in the NFL. Matt Stafford should throw for a ton of yards here. 

With both teams airing it out and moving it right down the field, I'll suggest a play on the over in this one. Take the over.

*4 Star Pac 12 Total* The Washington State Cougars offense is a well-oiled machine with Luke Falk at quarterback. He's the perfect fit for a Mike Leach offense. Washington State doesn't run the ball because they don't need to. Colorado's secondary has been picked apart all year, and it should happen again here. Falk has a bunch of great wide receivers, and Colorado doesn't have the secondary to keep them in check.

Washington State's defense has been giving up a ton of yards, and Colorado's backup quarterback is a guy the team is very high on. He'll start here and I think he has a good opportunity to do well for the Buffaloes against a mediocre at best defense. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The 76ers are dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, and it isn't even close! Philadelphia is shooting 30% form three and 41.7% overall from the floor. Miami ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Heat have the ability to hold Philadelphia to a very low number here. Miami is also playing at a slow tempo and Philadelphia is pushing the pace less this year than they have in the past. 

The under is 9-1 in the Heat's last 10. The under is 4-0 in their last vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last vs. a team with a win percentage below 40%. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star College Football TOP Play of Week* The Boston College Eagles have the number one ranked defense in the nation. Why do they have such a bad record? Because their offense is awful. 

Boston College is giving up only 2.12 yards per carry this year, which is truly an amazing number. The Eagles defense has allowed 14 points or less in 6 of their 10 games this season. Steve Addazio's team works extremely hard on the defensive end.

Boston College has one of the worst offenses in the country. How bad are they? Well they have scored 10 points or less in 5 of their 8 games this year against FBS opponents. They haven't scored more than 17 points against an FBS opponent this year! 

Notre Dame's defense isn't great, but they should look great against Boston College's offense. The Fighting Irish and the Eagles both play at a slow tempo. We should see the game clock moving most of the time with a lot of running the football here. 

The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The under is 9-1 in Boston College's last 10 following a loss. A 15-1 angle. Take the under big! NCAA FB TOP Play of the Week

*4 Star Play Under* The Rhode Island Rams are without their star player, EC Matthews. Matthews is out for the year with an injury. He was their best offensive threat. Without him, the Rams will still be a solid team, and it will be because of the tremendous defense they play. Cleveland State hasn't been able to score against Akron or Malone College, so how are they going to score here? I think Cleveland State will struggle to pass 50 points here. An ugly game between two teams that are good on the defensive end. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The Missouri Tigers defense has been great all year and their offense has been awful all year. For some reason, Missouri's offensive coaches have decided to continue to try to throw the ball with Drew Lock at quarterback despite him having next to no success all year. The running game doesn't get enough carries. Tennessee's defense is pretty good against the run, and Missouri will struggle to score.

Tennessee's offense has been very inconsistent this year. The Volunteers are likely to face a very spirited Missouri defense though in what is Gary Pinkel's last home game coaching the Missouri Tigers. This defense has been nasty at home.

The weather here looks like it could be helpful too. The wind will gust to 25 miles per hour, which definitely hurts the offense.

The under is 3-0-1 in the Volunteers last 4 November games. The under is 5-0 in the Tigers last 5 after giving up less than 100 rushing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 SEC games. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Oregon State Beavers starting quarterback is out. Their second string quarterback has struggled and he is dinged up. He will either play hurt or they'll be on their third string quarterback. Washington's defense has impressed me all year. The Huskies stop unit is unlikely to give up much of anything against this Oregon State offense. I'll be very surprised if Oregon tops 14 points. 

Washington's offense has been really inconsistent this year, and traditionally Oregon State's defense plays much better at home. The Beavers have spoken about their poor performances against Washington of late and they want to make amends for those showings. The defense should show improvement in this game.

The under is 7-0 in the Huskies last 7 road games. The under is 7-0 in Washington's last 7 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 2-0 in Oregon State's last 2 home games. A 21-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Total CRUSHER* The Oregon State Beavers and UC Santa Barbara Gauchos have both played teams who are very fast in tempo so far this year. They won't be playing an opponent who wants to run in this one. Oregon State is all about defense and UC Santa Barbara has been one of the slowest paced teams in the nation on a consistent basis.

There is a lot of value on this play because of their high scoring games against teams like California (fast paced) and Iona (very fast paced). I had this number at 131 points, which makes this my biggest play of the college basketball season thus far. Take the under big! 

*4 Star Play Over* The Old Dominion Monarchs have steadily improved their offensive production for the year. Old Dominion's defense has been awful all year. They are allowing 34 points per game. Southern Miss' offense averages 38.6 per contest, and the Golden Eagles are one of the most improved teams in the nation this year. They average 5.22 yards per carry, and Mullens is a very good quarterback in this system. Look for a lot of big plays from both offenses. Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Utah Utes defense has been elite against the run, but they have given up a lot of big plays in the passing game. Josh Rosen and the UCLA wideouts should be able to take advantage of that. Utah's offense has big play ability, and I think this UCLA defense has been one of the most overrated units in the country this season. They are now without their best two players in the front seven, and Utah should move the ball a lot in this one. Weather won't be an issue here and I'll take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The North Carolina Tar Heels are playing some tremendous football of late. I don't think they have gotten the credit they deserve. North Carolina has always had a great offense, but this year their defense has stepped up in a big way. The Tar Heels secondary has turned into one of the best in the country. Gene Chizik is doing great work with this unit. 

Virginia Tech's defense has had a lot of injuries this year, but they are still a solid unit, especially against the pass. Bud Foster will dial up some unique blitz packages to confuse the Tar Heels offense here. Virginia Tech is playing their final home game, which means this is Frank Beamer's last game in Blacksburg. Expect a spirited effort from the Hokies defense.

The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two at Virginia Tech. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings overall. A 12-1 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB National TV Total* The Virginia Cavaliers put up 82 points last night against Bradley, but it wasn't because they have picked up the tempo. Virginia just shot an amazing percentage from the floor. Bradley's defense offered little resistance, but Long Beach State is decent on defense. Virginia's defense is far better than anything Long Beach State generally sees. This line has been pushed up by 6.5 points from the open. That line move makes this under a good value in my eyes. 

Virginia is still the halfcourt team that plays great defense, and I think some of their early season numbers have skewed this number too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM Total* The Alabama Crimson Tide are coming off a humbling loss at the hands of the Dayton Flyers. Alabama is playing with a much quicker tempo this year, and Louisiana Lafayette has been one of the fastest paced teams in the nation with Bob Marlin as their head coach. 

Alabama is looking to use full court pressure to speed up the game, and I think Lafayette will be glad to play that type of game here. Lafayette has a very good frontcourt, and I think they'll get a lot of second chance points on offensive rebounds against a relatively small Alabama frontcourt.

I had this one lined at 158 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks have always liked to play at a quick tempo under coach John Cooper. Most of the teams inside the Mid American Conference slow the game down. Miami will get their chance to play a quick paced game when they take on Lipscomb on Friday night. Lipscomb has been a team that looks to play fast for several years in a row now.

With the new tighter rules we are seeing about four fouls more per game than we have seen in the past. Both of these teams have been teams that do a good job getting to the line in the past two years. They have also both been teams that commit a bunch of fouls. Look for a lot of trips to the charity stripe throughout this game.

My numbers made this game 154 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SMU Mustangs play at a methodical pace under Coach Larry Brown. He's suspended now, but SMU isn't going to change the way they play. Stanford lost their two best players from last year, and this Stanford team needed overtime to beat Wisconsin Green Bay at home earlier this year. I don't think Stanford can control the pace of this game, and I think they'll struggle to score against an SMU squad that makes you would hard for every bucket. Look for SMU to grab a lead in this game and work the clock in the second half. I had this number at 141. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rice Owls lost their best long range shooter from last year, and that's about all Rice could do well last season. The Oregon State Beavers have a very good coach in Wayne Tinkle and he is all about slowing the game down and winning with defense. Oregon State doesn't have many good scoring options, but everyone on this team can play defense. Rice likes to slow the game down as well. This is one of those lines that has gotten out of hand because of the success of early season overs. As the line has been bet up, there's just too much value here to pass up. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wisconsin Green Bay has a new coach who has totally changed the look of the team. Their goal is to be one of the fastest paced teams in the country this year. Georgia Tech has worked all offseason on trying to be a faster paced team. Brian Gregory's team put up 116 points in their season opener. Wisconsin Green Bay just gave up 103 points last game to East Tennessee State. I think the Yellow Jackets put up a really big number here and the pace of the game means Green Bay should score plenty as well. I made this line 164. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Creighton Blue Jays have a lot of offensive weapons, and they've made it known in the offseason that they want to get out and run. Here's their chance! Indiana loves to run, and the Hoosiers could put up a really big number here. Indiana ranks as the number one team in the nation in offensive efficiency so far this year. Creighton doesn't have many defensive stoppers on their roster. The Blue Jays will get open looks here, because Indiana's defense has been a problem for the past three years. Look for both teams to knock down a lot of threes and this game to go over the posted total. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UNLV Runnin' Rebels are going to be running a lot more this year. Dave Rice said in the preseason that his team has extensively practiced during the offseason to be much faster paced than a year ago. They have the athleticism to beat most teams down the floor. Southern Utah is always glad to play a fast paced game under Coach Nick Robinson. Southern Utah's defense has been among the worst in the nation in each of the last three years. They foul a bunch as well, which will be helpful to the over in this game. A quick tempo with a lot of trips to the charity stripe. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Best Bet Total* The Northwestern Wildcats and Fairfield Stags play a similar style of basketball. Both look to slow down the game and work down the shot clock. Northwestern is without Jershon Cobb this year and he was their best playmaker a year ago. They are also without Vic Law who was slated to be their best player this season. Law was injured before the season. Fairfield played a 70-57 game against Yale earlier this year. Northwestern played a 79-57 game against UMass Lowell.

Because overs have done so well so far this year, I think we'll be able to catch games with inflated lines like this one in some spots. All totals are being bet up several points. While the new rules do make higher scoring games more frequent, teams like Fairfield and Northwestern are unlikely to fundamentally change the way they play the game. This total has gone up 9 points since the opener. That's way too much in my opinion. Take the under big! 

*4 Star College Hoops TV Total* The Providence Friars are led by one of the best players in the country in Kris Dunn. Dunn is going to have a spectacular season this year. Coach Cooley has said he's looking for Dunn and the rest of his team to push the tempo more often this year because of their skillset. Illinois is glad to run. The Fighting Illini have had 93-81 and 80-74 finals in their first two games this year. Malcolm Hill is a very good scorer for Illinois, and the Fighting Illini should attack the rim a lot in this one. I see a close game between two teams who want to run. Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have a new coach, but they are expected to play the same uptempo style they have in the past. Louisiana Tech uses a full court diamond press to get a lot of turnovers and easy buckets in transition. UT Arlington ranked 8th out of 351 teams in terms of pace last year, and I think this game turns into a real track meet. The sharp money is already on the over, and I made this game 158 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Missouri Tigers know they can't turn this into a fast paced game. Missouri doesn't have the offensive firepower that Xavier has. Missouri is likely to be ranked near the bottom this year in terms of pace. The Tigers had a lot of very low scoring games last year. Xavier is likely to get a big lead and coast in this one. The Musketeers defense should be improved this year vs. last season. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Eastern Kentucky Colonels are playing a totally different style of basketball this year. They have been a slow tempo team for a long time, but now they have a coach who has said his goal is to have this team near the top of the country in terms of pace. They showed that in their season opener. UNC Wilmington pushes the tempo under a coach who learned under Rick Pitino. There will be a lot of pressing and a lot of fouls in this one. The tempo along with the new shorter shot clock and rules to help higher scoring make this a strong play for me. My number here was 157. Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* The Ohio Bobcats are pushing the tempo and they have a lot of offensive weapons. Tennessee State surprised a lot of people by running and scoring like crazy in their season opener. The Tigers put up 86 points on the road. They'll likely lose this game by a good margin, but Ohio should have little to no trouble scoring against this Tennessee State defense that has been really bad the last few seasons. With the shorter shot clock and more blocking fouls being called, I'm taking the over in this game. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Lakers were playing exceptionally fast on offense earlier this year, and lately they have slowed things down. Los Angles has played 5 straight games that have finished under the total. The Lakers offense is very disjointed right now. They don't have much ball movement at all, and they become easy to defend for long stretches.

Detroit's defense is so much better than it has been in the past. Drummond has been terrific for them and he does two things to help the under here- 1) he is a shot blocking force in the paint 2) he slows down the tempo of the game. Detroit now ranks tied for 10th in the league in defense. Both of these teams rank in the bottom third of the league in offensive efficiency as well. This number is a few points too high.

The under is 5-0 in the Lakers last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 3-0 in their 3 home games this year. The under is 2-0 in the Pistons only two games as a favorite this year. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these teams. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Nevada Wolf Pack are playing a much faster paced game under new coach Eric Musselman this year. Nevada has been known for their halfcourt sets that waste a lot of time in the past few years under David Carter, but this is a big change. In practices, Nevada has been playing as fast as possible. Montana State's Brian Fish prefers to play fast too, so I don't see anything slowing this one down. All of the new rule changes are leading to higher scoring games early on, and this total of 147.5 isn't a very high number with the shorter shot clock. Look for a lot of transition baskets here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Patriots/Giants MONEY* The New England Patriots offense has been a well-oiled machine all year. There's no reason to believe that New York can do anything to slow them down here. The Giants secondary is one of the worst in the NFL and Tom Brady obviously has all the ability and all the weapons necessary to expose that weakness. 

Much has been made of the Patriots willingness to score as much as possible here because of their losses to the Giants in the past. I think that's something that helps the over even more than the side here. The Patriots secondary hasn't been tested by very many good passing games, and the Giants passing attack has been very good this year. Eli Manning is really throwing the ball well. 

I expect a lot of scoring from both sides in this game. The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 November games. The over is 4-0 in their last on turf. The over is 4-0 in the Pats last 4 during week 10 of the season. A 12-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Oakland Raiders offense is far better this year than they have been in the past. The running game has been far better than anyone thought it would be, and Derek Carr has been amazing. Amari Cooper really helps this team a lot because of his playmaking abilities on the outside.

Minnesota's ground game is likely to get going against an Oakland defense that has been bad this year. Pittsburgh ran the ball at will against Oakland last week. Bridgewater has been cleared to play, and I think he can have some big plays in play action passing here thanks to the running game and its success.

Rain is expected here, but I still expect enough big plays to get this one over the total. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The St. Louis Rams and the Chicago Bears have both struggled on offense this year. The Rams have a very limited playbook, and Nick Foles hasn't been good at all in this offense. While Jay Cutler has been improved this year, he faces a great defensive line that will put a bunch of pressure on him in this game. Cutler isn't likely to pass this test well. This Rams defense is a whole different animal than taking on San Diego.

The Rams rushing attack is clearly very good, but their drives use up a lot of time. St. Louis doesn't look to snap it quickly at all, and the Rams will face a lot of people in the box in this game. I don't see many big plays on either side.

The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 10 overall. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after gaining 150 yards or more on the ground last game. The under is 7-1 in the Bears last 8 after gaining 250 yards or more through the air last game. A 17-1 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star College Football TOP Play of the MONTH* The UCLA Bruins defense is missing their top three players, and it has shown on multiple occasions this year. Stanford put up 56 points in three quarters against them. Colorado lit them up for 31 points and a whopping 554 yards. Colorado had 312 passing yards in that game. In their home loss to Arizona State, UCLA allowed 465 yards of total offense.

Washington State's offense is great with Luke Falk at the quarterback spot. Falk is the perfect quarterback for Mike Leach's system. Falk is a tall quarterback who sees over the defense. He gets rid of the ball quickly, and he spreads the ball around to all of Washington State's talented receivers. The Cougars wide receivers have a definite advantage over UCLA's banged up secondary.

UCLA's offense should move the ball with ease as well. As usual, Washington State doesn't have much at all in the way of defense. The Cougars defense is giving up 30.1 points per game. They have allowed at least 30 points in 5 of their last 6 games. Josh Rosen looks great at quarterback, and Paul Perkins is underrated as running back at UCLA.

Both teams move the ball well here. This line is far too low. Take the over big! College Football TOP Play of the Month. 

*4 Star NCAA FB Totals Takedown* The Cincinnati Bearcats have an excellent quarterback in Gunner Kiel. Kiel threw for more than 500 yards last week at Houston. He could put up those kinds of numbers once again here. Tulsa has a very weak secondary that should be exploited by the combination of Kiel and Cincinnati's very good wide receivers. 

Tulsa plays at the single fastest pace of any team in the country. The Golden Hurricane will be working against a Cincinnati defense that has struggled both last year and this year. With weather conditions looking good for Saturday's game, I see a shootout in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Houston Cougars and Memphis Tigers can both put up points in a hurry. Houston is a really well balanced offense that hasn't been stopped very effectively by anyone this year. Memphis has Paxton Lynch, an excellent quarterback, and the Tigers should be able to move the ball through the air effectively. Houston's defense allowed more than 500 yards passing last week against Cincinnati. The Memphis defense was just torched by Navy last weekend. Memphis' defense is likely to be hurting a little extra, because the blocking schemes that Navy runs are noted as being tough to bounce back from right away. Both teams push the tempo and I'll take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* This Texas State defense is among the worst in the nation, and Georgia State's is barely any better. In fact, they both rank in the bottom 15 out of 128 teams in the nation in terms of total defense. Both offense play at a quick pace, so we should see a lot of snaps in this one. With these two defenses on the field a lot, I think there will be a lot of big plays from both teams. I think this game gets into the 70's in a close game where both offenses put up points easily. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The Vanderbilt Commodores defense has put together some really impressive performances this year. Vanderbilt gave up only 14 points to an amazing Western Kentucky offense earlier this year. They allowed only 9 points last week at Florida. They have allowed 14 points or less in six of their nine games so far this year. Kentucky's offense has been a mess this year. Vanderbilt's offense is a disaster right now. For as good as the defense is, the offense is that bad. They were shutout by Houston and then scored only 7 at Florida. Western Kentucky's awful defense allowed only 12 points against Vanderbilt. This total is low for a reason.

The under is 5-0 in Vandy's last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 yards rushing or less. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 170 yards passing or less. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 on turf. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following an ATS win. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 games between these two teams. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Alabama/Mississippi State MONEY* The Alabama Crimson Tide defense is outstanding. The show that defensive front put on against LSU and Leonard Fournette. Holding him to 31 yards rushing is an amazing accomplishment. Mississippi State isn't nearly the dynamic offense they were last year. The Bulldogs have an exceptional quarterback in Dak Prescott, but he has little help around him. Prescott is accustomed to running the football a lot, but I can't imagine Alabama's defensive front letting him get much running room here.

Mississippi State's defense has been excellent this year as well. Alabama has a good ground game, but the passing attack is questionable at best. The Bulldogs defense has been great at home in recent years, and they have stopped Alabama well in the past. 

The under is 8-1 in the Bulldogs last 9 SEC games. The under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two in Starkville. A 15-1 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tulane Green Wave did a really nice job defending the triple option when they played Navy a few weeks ago. Navy won that game, but it wasn't nearly as easy as expected for the Midshipmen. Tulane's defense should be able to defend the Army triple option well again here. Navy runs the triple option more effectively than Army does. 

Army moves at the slowest pace of any team in the country. That means we'll see a lot of running clock and the play clock rolling down to a couple seconds before snapping it. The Tulane offense has been woeful all year. Army's defense isn't very good, but they should be able to contain Tulane's offense enough. Take the under here. *Note- This line has moved a few points- I would play this for 4 stars down to 45 and for 3 stars down to 42.5.*

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Total* From everything I've read about the Utah Utes in the offseason, this team is changing the way they play this year. Utah is going to push the tempo. Utah was one of the slowest paced teams in the nation last year. It usually takes the oddsmakers a little bit to adjust to something like this. Utah has the perfect opponent to try out their new tempo on tonight in Southern Utah. Southern Utah has been an extremely fast paced team the last few years. Additionally, Southern Utah is awful on defense and fouls a bunch. The Utes should get a lot of easy buckets at the basket, and they should be on the free throw line a lot as well. 

Utah beat down Cal State Monterey Bay 124-70 in exhibition play last week. I'm not saying they'll pour in the points at that pace tonight, but that shows a totally different type of play. This line is far too low. I think this one gets into the 150's. Take the over big! 

*3 Star NBA Spurs/Blazers ESPN CASH* The San Antonio Spurs offense hasn't been as efficient so far this year as we are accustomed to them being. It makes sense really, since they have a completely different look with Aldridge in the lineup. The Spurs have been excellent on defense though. They are behind only Golden State in defensive efficiency so far this year. 

Portland relies way too much on Damian Lillard for my liking. Lillard is definitely a very good player, but the Spurs defense should do well against him. Portland hasn't played against many good defenses this year, so I think their offensive number are skewed a bit right now.

Both of these teams are playing at a pace slower than the NBA average, so a line set this high doesn't make much sense, especially when you have an elite defense like the Spurs involved. The public is hitting the over hard here, so I'll gladly take the under at this elevated price. 

One more note- James Williams is one of the referees here, and he is one of the best under refs in the NBA. The under is hitting at a better than 60% clip in his last 150 games as a ref. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Heat have been slowing the tempo down in a big way this year. Miami ranks second to last in the NBA in terms of pace (only Utah is slower). The Heat also rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Miami is very likely to control this game against the Lakers. Miami ranks 10th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and the Lakers rank 18th. I expect Miami to grab a lead and let their defense win them this game. Two of the three referees in this game are solid under guys, which is certainly helpful. Miami hasn't had a game this year finish with a final score higher than 198. Two of the Lakers last four games have finished at 196 or lower. 

The under is 6-0 in the Heat's last 6 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on a day of rest. The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 2-0 in the Lakers last 2 games. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these teams. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Broncos/Colts Totals CASH* The Indianapolis Colts offense has struggled to get going all year. Andrew Luck has been in a funk since coming back. He looked good late in the game at Carolina, but I think that was more about Carolina's defense getting into the prevent too early than anything else.

This Denver defense is scary good. They have the best pass rush in the NFL by a wide margin. They are solid against the run (Indianapolis has a poor running game). Denver also has a tremendous secondary. They are clearly the best defensive unit in the league.

Denver's offense looked better last week, but I'm still not convinced on this unit. The Broncos offensive numbers for the year are really bad. Indianapolis needs this game and they should bring a lot of intensity. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has improved a lot in recent weeks. Jameis Winston started out poorly in the NFL, but he has looked solid of late. The New York Giants pass defense is currently ranked dead last in the league. They made Drew Brees look like the best quarterback of all time last weekend. Brees is very good, but he isn't that good, especially with questionable weapons around him. Tampa Bay's defense has given up a bunch of yards in their last couple games vs. Washington and Atlanta. New York's passing game has been good, and Eli Manning has been sharp overall this year. I see both teams putting up quite a few here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco 49ers defense has been really good at home this year. Their splits home vs. away are remarkable. The Atlanta Falcons offense has been weaker in recent weeks. San Francisco's defense did a really nice job against Green Bay when they came to the Bay Area a few weeks ago. 

Colin Kaepernick has been benched and Blaine Gabbert is now the starter for the Niners. Kaepernick deserved to be benched with the way he had been playing, but does anyone really think Gabbert is the answer? Gabbert has been even worse than Kaepernick in his career, and Gabbert isn't likely to look good against an improving Falcons defense. Atlanta brought in a new head coach that would focus on defense, and it is working out for them.

The under is 3-0-1 in the Falcons last 4. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The under is 4-0 in the Niners last 4 November games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*5 Star NFL TOP Play of the Month* The Oakland Raiders offense has been amazing. Derek Carr is playing exceptionally well. It's amazing what he has been able to do with some extra weapons around him. Everyone knows that Amari Cooper has been very good in his rookie year, but the Oakland running game has also been better than most people realize. Murray has been a good back for Oakland. 

Pittsburgh is coming off a tough loss where they lost at home to Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger struggled in his first game back from an injury. Big Ben is one of the best quarterbacks in this league though, and I see a great bounce back opportunity for him here. Oakland's secondary has been abused on a regular basis. Only the Giants secondary has worse numbers than Oakland. With Big Ben and his impressive pass catchers, Oakland is going to have a rough time again in pass defense.

Both teams should have plenty of scoring chances throughout this game. The over is 5-0 in the Raiders last 5 in Week 9. The over is 9-1 in the Raiders last 10 vs. the AFC. Take the over big! 

*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* The Cal Golden Bears have come undone in recent weeks after starting the season red hot. Cal's passing attack hasn't been as good lately. They should look a lot better in this one against an Oregon secondary that has been blasted by every decent quarterback they have gone up against. Goff has a bounce back game here. 

Vernon Adams makes this Oregon Ducks offense so much better. He was injured earlier this year, and the team just couldn't get going like normal. He's now healthy, and he's the playmaker the team was missing. Adams makes something out of nothing on a consistent basis.

It's expected to be rainy for this one, but importantly wind isn't expected to be a factor. Rain itself doesn't necessarily hurt scoring because there can actually be more turnovers that lead to easy points or special teams touchdowns. Wind is a negative for the over, but wind isn't going to hurt here.

Look for a high scoring game. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Washington Huskies defense has been tremendous this year. Washington wasn't expected to do much of anything this year, and the fact that they have tells me Chris Petersen is doing a great job here. The Huskies offense still needs a lot of work, but their defense has been amazing in their last few contests.

Utah's defensive line is the best in the Pac 12. Look for them to make life very difficult on Browning and the Huskies offensive front. Devontae Booker is the Utes main weapon on offense and they have to give him the ball a bunch here. Washington has been great against the run though.

The weather is important here as well with rain and winds of 15 to 20 mph possible during the game. That weather is favorable for the under. Take the under big. 

*Note- This line has moved significantly since I played it early in the week- I would currently play the under for 3 stars. Thank you*

*4 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen know they don't want a high scoring affair against a Memphis team that can put up the points in a hurry. What will they do? They'll look to play keep away with Keenan Reynolds and their tremendous triple option attack. Look for Navy to slowly drive the ball down the field and hold a big time of possession advantage in this game. I think both teams will score on a lot of drives here, but I don't think there will be enough possessions for them to get past this very high total.

It's very rare to see this high of a total in a Navy game because of their methodical style of play. I see it as a good chance to take the value on the under. Look for this one to stay in the 50's. Take the under. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play of the Week* These two teams are a lot like each other. Both of them have a defense that plays hard and rallies to the ball. They both also have a terrible offense that has struggled to put together consistent drives against anyone. Last year when these teams met the final score was 12-3! I'm not necessarily saying this one will be that low, but I do think it will be another game with a lot of field goals. This one has sloppy game written all over it.

Both of these teams run the ball a lot, and both defenses are solid against the run. Tulane's defense really impressed me a couple weeks ago when they played Navy. UConn's defense has gotten better quickly under Bob Diaco. Neither team is designed in a way where they will make big plays very often. We'll look for a lot of running clock and strong defense from both teams throughout.

The under is 9-0 in Tulane's last 9 games after gaining 170 yards or less through the air last game. The under is 6-0 in UConn's last 6 after allowing less than 170 passing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in the Huskies last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing last game. A 19-0 angle. Take the under big! 

*4 Star CFB Rivalry Total* The Air Force Falcons and Army Cadets both run the triple option all the time. I've had a lot of success playing unders in these situations before. Air Force and Army both defend the triple option on a daily basis, and that gives their defense a huge advantage over other teams who aren't accustomed to playing against this defense. 

Since both teams will be running the ball almost every single down, the clock will be ticking a lot in this one. That's really important when you bet an under. Additionally, Army's tempo is the slowest in the country so far this year, so they really milk the clock. 

The familiarity with the triple option should lead to a lower than expected game. Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Here's a game between two defenses that are regressing and two offenses that are improving on a weekly basis. Washington State's offense has the perfect signal caller in Luke Falk. Falk spreads the ball around to the many talented wide receivers for the Cougars. There hasn't been a defense that has been able to stop them yet this year.

Arizona State is good against the run, but Washington State doesn't even attempt to run the football. The Cougars are going to be airing it out. Washington State's defense has been unable to stop anyone this year. Arizona State has been a lot better in recent weeks on offense.

This number is a few points too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Total DOMINATION* The Michigan Wolverines defense didn't look quite as good last week in their close win over Rutgers. They should look a whole lot better here against a Rutgers offense that is a disaster right now.

Rutgers scored 7 points on Ohio State two weeks ago and that was a touchdown with 30 seconds left against the Buckeyes second and third team defensive players. Last week, Rutgers scored only 3 points on offense against Wisconsin. It wouldn't surprise me to see them shutout or very close to it in this one.

Michigan's offense is a run first attack and they move very slowly. They aren't going to pile up a bunch of points on many people. The wind is expected to be 20 to 25 mph during this game, which means both passing attacks should struggle. 

The under is 6-0 in the Wolverines last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. I think they make it 7 straight unders. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers had a big lead last year when they played at Florida Atlantic. They blew that lead and suffered a stunning loss. They'll be out for revenge here. Western Kentucky's offense is dynamic with Brandon Doughty spreading the ball around to a bunch of wide receivers. Now Anthony Wales has turned into a game breaker at the running back spot as well. This offense is scary good, and Florida Atlantic's defense hasn't been good against even subpar offenses. Western Kentucky is going to put up a big number here. 

The Hilltoppers still have a weak defense as evidenced by Old Dominion scoring a bunch on them last week. Florida Atlantic should be able to get in the end zone several times as well.

*Note- This line has moved up since I picked earlier in the week. I would play this for 4 stars up to 66 and for 3 stars up to 70 points. Thank you*

*4 Star CFB Thursday Night THUNDER* The Missouri Tigers haven't seen a single game this year go over the posted total. Missouri has the perfect combination of a terrible offense and a great defense. Missouri has virtually no passing game, and the running game is slowed down by quality defenses because they stack the box. Mississippi State has been great against the run this year, and I can't imagine the Bulldogs are going to let Missouri bet them on the ground here.

Dak Prescott is a really good quarterback for Mississippi State, but he clearly has less weapons around him than he did last year. Prescott is likely to have a difficult time against this Missouri defense. The Tigers defensive line is great at getting into the backfield and sacking the quarterback or stuffing a run behind the line.

This line has surprisingly climbed so far this week. I'm glad to take the under in this spot because my number for this one was 39 points. 

The under is 8-0 in the Bulldogs last 8 SEC games. The under is 5-0 in Missouri's last 5 after giving up 20 points or less last game. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 170 yards or less through the air. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 SEC games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 games overall. A 40-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Pistons are a much improved team this year. They are working much harder on the defensive end, and they have improved team chemistry. Detroit is playing at the fourth slowest tempo of any team in the NBA. The Indiana Pacers have the third worst offensive efficiency of any team in the NBA. A total set this high doesn't make sense in this contest. The referees in this game are neutral as far as over/unders. I thought this line should be at 197, so I see plenty of value here. Look for Detroit to control the tempo and win with a strong defensive effort. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Seahawks/Cowboys Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks defense is better than they have shown so far this year. This is a crucial game for the Seahawks as they look to enter their bye week at 4-4 on the season. The Dallas offense isn't very good with Cassel at quarterback. Dez Bryant's back here, but the Seattle secondary is one of the better units in the NFL and they should be fine against him.

Seattle's offensive line has had major problems this year. Dallas has a great pass rush and I think that will give Seattle a bunch of issues here. Russell Wilson has been sacked more than any other quarterback so far this year. Look for him to be on the run trying to get away from this elite Cowboys defensive line. Take the under. 

*3 Star Royals/Mets MLB MONEY!* Chris Young starts on three days rest here. It's a unique position for him to be in. Young is a 6'10 guy who relies on his over the top delivery that batters aren't used to, and the Mets should be better prepared for him now that they have seen him very recently. Young isn't accustomed to starting on 3 days rest obviously, and while he has been in good in the postseason, Young has had his fair share of blowups over the years. 

Steven Matz starts for the Mets. He's a solid lefty who struggles a bit to put contact hitters away. The Royals are great against lefties (.338 wOBA) and Kansas City strikes out less than any other team in the majors. Look for Kansas City to work the counts and hit Matz's fastball well. 

Both teams have had a lot of runners on base throughout this series so far, and I think that continues in this one. At this low total, I think the over has solid value. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB SEC Total* The Kentucky Wildcats defense has really shown signs of wearing down the last couple weeks. Auburn's very weak offense was able to move the ball consistently against them, and then last week Dak Prescott and Mississippi State did whatever they wanted against this Kentucky defense. Tennessee had a rough time offensively against Alabama, but this Volunteers offense has been very good against lesser defenses, and that's what Kentucky is this year. Tennessee's defense has been mediocre at best. These are two teams that play at a pretty quick tempo. Take the over.

*The line has moved since I selected this earlier this week. I would play this one up to 58 points. Thank you*

*3 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The Arkansas State Red Wolves and the Georgia State Panthers have a similar strategy on offense when it comes to getting off a bunch of plays. Both teams look to hustle to the line and get the snap off quickly. That's a big benefit for over bettors because it creates more plays and more chances to score. Arkansas State's defense has regressed this year, and they have been giving up a lot of big plays. Georgia State's defense is one of the worst in the nation. The Panthers should get absolutely torched by Arkansas State's elite ground game. Both Knighten and Gordon have game breaking ability in the backfield. This total dropped throughout the week, which gives us a nice value play.

The over is 6-0 in Georgia State's last 6 following an ATS cover. The over is 7-0 in Arkansas State's last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 October games. An 18-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Florida Gators defense is still one of the best in the country. Florida's offense will likely have a difficult time making big plays without Will Grier. At the same time, I see Georgia having a ton of trouble on offense in this game. Georgia's Greyson Lambert hasn't played a good game against a top defense yet, and I don't think this will be one either. Florida is going to dare Georgia to beat them through the air here. Look for Florida to stack the box and do a nice job slowing down the Bulldogs running game. This should be a hard fought game where both defenses have the upper hand. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been a scoring machine this year. Mahomes has proven to be an upgrade at the quarterback spot and that has made this Red Raiders offense much more dangerous than they were last year. Mahomes does a good job getting rid of the ball quickly, and he spreads it around to all their talented receivers. 

Oklahoma State's offense has feasted on the Texas Tech defense for years now, and I don't see why it would be any different this year. Oklahoma State's quarterback play has been better recently, and Texas Tech's secondary has been making everyone look good this year.

Both of these teams love to play an uptempo style and we will see a ton of big plays throughout this game. The combination of a quick pace and explosive plays is great for the over. This number is high, but it's high for good reason. 

The over is 7-0 in Texas Tech's last 7 home games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 40 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record on the road. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star ACC Total* The Boston College Eagles offense is just horrendous. How bad were they last week? Boston College had 4 first downs and 79 total yards of offense against a Louisville defense that is decent, but not amazing. Wow. Boston College is routinely scoring less than 10 points in games. Virginia Tech's offense is once again underperforming this year, but the defense is solid with a great coordinator in Bud Foster. Look for both teams to struggle to get anything going offensively in this game. While this total is posted extremely low, it's low for a reason. I made this total 34 points, and with the way both of these offenses have looked lately, I'm taking the under. 

*4 Star CFB Big 10 Total* The Wisconsin Badgers have been a very good under team this year. It makes sense because Wisconsin has one of the top five defenses in the country. In the past, the Badgers have had one of the best ground games in the country, but they don't this year. Wisconsin's offensive line has struggled throughout the year, and the running back situation hasn't been nearly as good thanks to injury issues. Rutgers has been pretty good at slowing down the running attack this year, so I think they can hold their own for the most part. Rutgers' Leonte Caroo is questionable with an injury this weekend and he's a huge deal to this offense. The Scarlet Knights offense has virtually no passing game without him. Last week, Ohio State held Rutgers scoreless until Rutgers scored with a few seconds left in the game on a garbage touchdown. Take the under. 

*5 Star NBA TOP Play of Week* I took the over in the New York Knicks season opener and that won comfortably. I'm backing the over again in this one. New York showed they were a different team in the preseason, and they confirmed that yet again in their win over Milwaukee. New York is running a much faster paced offense. The Knicks brought in guys who fit a faster paced offense very well. Guys like Jerian Grant and Derrick Williams made big impacts in game one, and they should again here.

Importantly though, Atlanta has always been a team that likes to run when they can. The Hawks aren't going to slow this game down. Atlanta lost their season opener and they'll be ready to go here. Atlanta had one of the top five offenses in terms of efficiency last year. While New York's offense is much better this year, I still expect the Knicks to be one of the worst defenses in the NBA. Atlanta should be able to put up a big number here.

Interestingly, even when the Knicks were stalling and playing a totally halfcourt game last year, two of their three meetings with Atlanta went over the total. The oddsmakers haven't adjusted to the Knicks new style of play yet. This number is too low. Take the over big! 

*Note- This line has moved up slightly- I would take over for a 5 star play up to 200. Thank you*

*3 Star NCAA FB Thursday Night THUNDER* The Pittsburgh Panthers are playing at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country. Pittsburgh is a team that is going to run the ball early and often, and they are going to use the clock. In their final drive against Syracuse last week, they ran off nearly 10 minutes of clock and kicked a field goal. Those are the kind of things that under bettors have to love. It doesn't hurt that the Panthers have a strong defense either.

North Carolina is known for their offense, but Gene Chizik has done a really nice job with this team's defense this year. This defense was a laughing stock a year ago, and now they have been pretty good this season.

Another important factor here is the weather. There are expected to be wind gusts of 30 mph at times throughout this game. What does that mean? Well it means their should be a lot more running, and running the football means a running clock. It also usually means less explosive plays. 

The under is 6-0 in North Carolina's last 6 Thursday games. Take the under in this one. 

*Surprisingly- this line has moved up. I would take the under for a 4 star play at 59 points or higher. Thank you. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The New York Knicks are going to play a different style of basketball this year. Derek Fisher has been using the offseason to implement a new faster pace of play with this team. New York has the new guard to start the fastbreak with. Jerian Grant will be a great fit in this offense with them pushing the tempo. New York will still run the triangle offense when they can't score in transition, but last year this Knicks team was the single slowest paced in the NBA for much of the year. In the preseason, they ranked 14th in the league in points and were clearly changing things up. 

Milwaukee ranked just a little faster than average in terms of pace last year. Greg Monroe is the new big signing for the Bucks. Monroe is a defensive downgrade for the team and a major offensive upgrade. The Knicks don't have anyone who can guard him consistently here.

Last year, the Knicks were playing an extremely slow tempo and 3 of the 4 meetings between these teams were lined higher than this. I think we are catching value on the over as the oddsmakers underestimate the differences in these teams. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Carolina Panthers and the Philadelphia Eagles meet in primetime. Carolina is unbeaten and Philadelphia is playing better of late. What's making them turn things around? It's not the offense. It's been the Eagles defense, which is still being severely underrated in my opinion. The Eagles have been shutting down some good offenses of late, and I'm not convinced this Carolina offense is good. Cam Newton doesn't have enough weapons on the outside for this offense to beat a good defense consistently. Carolina is up against one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL. 

Sam Bradford still looks terrible in this Philly offense and the Panthers run defense should make Philadelphia work very hard for every yard they get on the ground. I see both teams settling for field goals throughout. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Pittsburgh Steelers will likely go with Landry Jones here. They moved Tyler Murphy to active at QB which suggests that Big Ben will probably not play here. With Jones as the expected signal caller, I think the Steelers do a lot of running the football. Kansas City always tries to run the football a lot because their passing game is so poor. Jeremy Maclin is dinged up which hurts the passing game even more. Pittsburgh's defense has given up a lot of yards through the air, but they are very good against the run. Without Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs just don't have offensive weapons. Both teams rank in the bottom 5 in the NFL in terms of pace of play. 

The under is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after giving up more than 350 total yards of offense. The under is 6-0-1 in the Steelers last 7 following a win. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the AFC. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Mississippi State Bulldogs offense is far worse than it was a year ago. Dak Prescott is still a great playmaker at quarterback, but he has very little help around him. The Bulldogs have been able to put up points in bunches against non-conference opponents, but they haven't been very good against SEC foes. Kentucky's defensive improvement is the main reason this team has been far more competitive in the last couple seasons. I made this total 51.5, so I see enough value to make a play.

The under is 7-0 in the Bulldogs last 7 conference games. The under is 3-0-1 in Kentucky's last 4 conference games. The under is 5-0-1 in Kentucky's last 6 after throwing for 280 yards or more last game. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Utah/USC Total DOMINATION* The USC Trojans put forth a good effort last weekend in Notre Dame, but they came home with a loss. USC's offensive line has had issues this year, and the Trojans are playing against the best defensive front in the conference in Utah. The Utes will be pressuring Cody Kessler all night on Saturday. The USC offense has been very inconsistent this year, and in recent years they have had trouble moving the ball against Utah. While Utah's defense and special teams are tremendous, the Utes are too one dimensional on offense. Booker is a great runner, but they have no other playmakers on offense. A total of 60 is too high with these two teams. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the Week* The UTEP Miners offense is totally lost without their starting quarterback and starting running back. Aaron Jones was the team's leading rusher last year, and they were counting on him to be the star again this year, but he is injured and likely out for the season. Without him at running back, this team is a mess. UTEP's pace of play is one of the 5 slowest in the country. Florida Atlantic's defense is better than their offense. The defense isn't special, but they shouldn't need to be to slow down this UTEP offense. This one should be ugly all the way, but ugly is usually a good thing for under bettors. The line has shifted down a bit since I bet this one early in the week, but it's still a 5 star play for me. My number for this game was only 45 points.

The under is 5-1 in FAU's last 6 on turf. The under is 4-0 in UTEP's last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 13-1 angle. Take the under big! 

*3 Star Play Over* The Idaho Vandals defense is one of the five worst in the country. Anytime I see an Idaho posted total this low, the over is worth a look. Louisiana Monroe had a solid defense in the past, but this year they have been much weaker. Both of these teams play quickly and there should be a lot of possessions for both offenses. The total was hit down in the market which made this one get into the play range for me. Look for a back and forth game that goes over the total. Last year, the final was 38-31 when these two played. This one gets to the 60's too. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Wildcats rank second in the nation in terms of pace per play. They love to play uptempo. Mike Leach has always been an uptempo guy, and he has a great quarterback in Luke Falk. Falk threw 6 touchdowns in the first half last weekend! Arizona's defense has been torched on a consistent basis this year, and I think Washington State will do the same to them here. Arizona's defense wasn't great to start with, and now they are banged up. Washington State's defense is bad once again this year, and Rich Rod's team has lots of speed and weapons on offense. 

The over is 4-0 in Arizona's last 4 after a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 280 yards or more passing. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning road record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after running for 200 yards or more last game. The over is 7-1 in their last 8 overall. A 29-1 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The South Florida Bulls and the SMU Mustangs both rank in the bottom 25 in terms of pace in the nation. With a high total and two teams that take a lot of time in between plays, there is value on the under. South Florida's defense is the best unit on the field here, and SMU should have trouble scoring. While USF might be capable of winning this one big, I don't see them running up the score in a spot where they would likely be better to rest their players and be happy with a comfortable win. Take the under. *Note- This line has moved since I selected it on Monday. I would play this one down to 58.5 points which is available at most books now late in the week. Thank you*

*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Wisconsin Badgers have become a really good under team. The Badgers defense is as strong as ever. They are good against both the run and the pass. The Wisconsin offense though is much weaker than they have been in recent years. Corey Clement is hurt and the backups aren't getting the job done in the running game. The offensive line is far less dominating than they have been in recent years. Joel Stave isn't a good quarterback either. Illinois has slowed down their tempo and they have played some low scoring games this year. The weather is important here too. Winds of 20 mph with showers are expected during the game. That's good news for under bettors.

The under is 5-0 in the Badgers last 5. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 20 points or less. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 275 yards or less. The under is 4-0 in Illinois' last 4 after a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 200 yards or more on the ground last game. A 30-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star Mac Total* The Ohio Bobcats defense is one of the best in the MAC. They didn't show it last week. Frank Solich is a great coach, and I expect he will have this Ohio defense ready to go this week. The Bobcats are a team that runs the ball a lot on offense and uses up the clock and so is Buffalo. Buffalo's star running back is Anthone Taylor. He is listed as questionable here, and even if he does play he won't be 100 percent. This should be a close game all the way, but I think it will be low scoring. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Panthers defense has been amazing this year led by new head coach Pat Narduzzi. Narduzzi was awesome as Michigan State's defensive coordinator, and now the Panthers defense has immediately gotten better in a big way. Pitt only allowed 100 total yards of offense a couple weeks ago at Virginia Tech. The Panthers defensive line will have a huge advantage over Syracuse's offensive front. The Orange are starting a quarterback who simply isn't very good. He started the year as the fifth quarterback option for the team. Pittsburgh will run the ball and use up clock. Look for Pitt to win a low scoring game. Take the under. 

*This line has moved since I first selected it- I recommend playing this for 4 stars down to 49 and it would be a 3 star play down to 46. Thank you*

*4 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers are a team that doesn't make much sense to me. There's no question they are at a big talent disadvantage against just about everyone on their schedule (Southern Miss included), but they continue to play as fast as possible. Charlotte ranks 10th in the nation in pace. It is crushing their defense. The 49ers defense is giving up 32.3 points per game (that figure will likely continue to rise) and they have been torched by anyone that has a decent passing game. Southern Miss' offense is much improved this year. Southern Miss puts up a big number and Charlotte does enough. Take the over.

*This line has moved significantly since I picked it late on Monday. I would play this for 4 stars up to 62 and for 3 stars up to 65.5. Thank you*

*4 Star UCLA/Cal Total DOMINATION* The Cal Golden Bears offense is excellent with Jared Goff at the helm. Goff can shred up most secondaries, and UCLA's defense is much weaker now that they have lost Moreau (best CB) Jack (best LB) and Vanderdoes (best DL). The Bruins defense has been really bad in recent weeks, and I think they give up a bunch of points here too. At the same time, Cal's defense isn't impressive. While they are a little better than they have been in the past couple years, they are still weak. Josh Rosen is a very good freshman, and the UCLA ground game is impressive with Paul Perkins leading the way. I think this game gets into the 70's. Take the over. 

*Note- This line has gone up  since I selected this Monday. I would make this play all the way up to 71 points. Thank you*

*4 Star CFB Thursday Night THUNDER* The Georgia Southern Eagles take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers in what should be a really interesting game. Georgia Southern's triple option attack is really good, but they meet an Appalachian State team that has the best defense in the Sun Belt. Appalachian State hosts here, and this is a huge game for both teams. Appalachian State essentially never gets to host a television game, but that's what they have here. Expect a really good home field advantage for them. Appalachian State's offense and Georgia Southern's offense have something in common: they both move very slowly and run it almost every down. 

With almost no passing going on, it will be tough to reach this high of a posted total. The clock will keep running throughout this game. The last two meetings between these two have stayed well under the posted total. The under is 5-1 in App State's last 6 games overall. I think Appalachian State's defense defends the triple option well and this game stays under the total. Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Tuesday Night Total DOMINATION* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have a high powered offense led by Fredi Knighten. Knighten is the team's star quarterback. He missed a few games earlier this year, and the team suffered, but he came back last week and the offense looked great in a 49-27 win. Arkansas State lost 55-40 despite gaining 595 yards last year when these two teams met. Louisiana Lafayette isn't the team they were last year, but they should get scoring chances against an Arkansas State defense that isn't very good. This is a conference where high scoring games is the norm, and I think we'll see another one of them on Tuesday night. 

The over is 6-0 in Arkansas State's last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games in October. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. A 14-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Patriots/Colts Sunday Night CASH* The New England Patriots offense has been unstoppable this year. Do you really think the Patriots are going to want to let off the gas against the Indianapolis Colts? Remember, this is the team that started the whole Deflategate issues after their loss in the playoffs. New England should be out for blood here. Tom Brady and this Patriots offense are clearly capable of putting up a huge number here.

At the same time, Andrew Luck is expected back for the Colts, and the New England defense has looked shaky against good offenses this year. The Patriots secondary is a question mark for me. I think the Colts can put up plenty of points in this one as well.

I think there's a good chance this game gets into the 60's. With the line this low, I see a lot of value on the over.

The over is 4-0 in the Patriots last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. An 11-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks offense just hasn't been able to get going this year. Even in last week's game in Cincinnati, Seattle only put up 17 points on offense. They got 7 of their points from a defensive touchdown. Here, they'll take on a Carolina Panthers defense that is elite. Luke Kuechly is back for Carolina, and that is huge for this team. Carolina is very good at stopping the run to start with, and with Kuechly they'll be even better.

Seattle has no rhythm in the passing game. The Seahawks have to run it to be successful, but Marshawn Lynch is still banged up. Lynch will likely play here, but he is less than 100 percent, and he's up against a great defense.

Cam Newton has been very good so far this year, but Carolina hasn't played a defense even close to as good as the Seahawks. I think Seattle shuts down the Panthers running game here and forces them to beat them through the air, which I don't think they can do. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Denver Broncos are a team I've looked to play the under with as much as possible, and I'm going to keep doing it here. Denver's defense is arguably the best in the NFL. They have been solid against the run and spectacularly against the pass. Cleveland's offensive line should have a lot of trouble with this Denver defensive front. 

Peyton Manning hasn't been sharp at all this year, and the Browns secondary is pretty good even without Joe Haden in the lineup. Another very important factor for this game is the weather. The temperature is expected to be in the low 40's with a chance of some sprinkles during the game and a 10 to 15 mph wind. That isn't good weather for the offenses at all.

Look for a close game where field goals are more common than touchdowns. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings and Kansas City Chiefs both have strong defenses. Alex Smith and Teddy Bridgewater are both what I consider to be game managers. Adrian Peterson is obviously a game breaker for the Vikings, but the Chiefs are without their game breaker in Jamaal Charles.

Both of these teams run the football a lot, so we'll see a lot of running clock in this game. The defenses are likely to dare the quarterbacks to beat them, and I don't think it will happen very often. Without Charles, the Chiefs defense becomes one of the worst in the NFL. 

The under is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 in October. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 on turf. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA FB Pac 12 Total* The Arizona Wildcats are playing at the second fastest tempo of any team in the country. Who's the fastest? The Baylor Bears. Anu Solomon is back and healthy, and with he and Wilson in the backfield Arizona is going to be able to score a lot against Colorado. The Buffaloes defense isn't good, and they have been worn down in the second half in several contests. The Colorado offense should get a lot more scoring opportunities than they normally do. Arizona's defense is badly banged up, and their linebackers aren't good at all without Wright and Ippolito. Colorado also plays at a fast tempo, and other than last week, Arizona's defense has been getting shredded by everyone. I think this gets into the 70's. Take the over. 

*4 Star CFB Total DOMINATION* The Florida Gators season took a big hit when Will Grier was suspended for a year after testing positive for PED's. While the Florida offense will likely look more vanilla this weekend, it is important to remember that Florida's defense is elite. LSU has absolutely no passing game right now. In a recent game, LSU completed 4 out of 14 passes against lowly Eastern Michigan. LSU is going to have to run it nearly every down here. While Leonard Fournette is a beast, this Florida defense is good and they'll be stacking the box up every time. 

On the other side, LSU's defense hasn't been quite as good so far this year as expected, but they should bring their best effort in this one. Florida's Treon Harris isn't a particularly good passer, and LSU has a great secondary. Florida is likely to be one-dimensional as well.

With a running clock throughout the game and two offenses that have very little passing game, I expected a lower total than this. I like this value. Take the under. 

*4 Star Big 12 Total* The Kansas State Wildcats offense has been a lot better than expected so far this year. They have a passing game that has seen quite a bit of success in recent weeks. Kansas State is a top ten ranked offense by advanced metrics. Oklahoma's air raid attack has been very successful this year except for their last game, a loss against Texas. Kansas State's defense is banged up, and they aren't as talented as they have been in recent years. Even in the past couple years when Oklahoma wasn't playing an uptempo offensive style, the game between these two teams has finished at 72 and 61 points. This one should be a close one all the way, and the chance of overtime is another benefit to the over. Take the over here. 

*3 Star Michigan State/Michigan MONEY* The Michigan Wolverines defense hasn't allowed a single point in their last three games. They have allowed a grand total of 14 points in their last five games! This defense is playing better than anyone else in the nation, and it isn't even close. Michigan State's defense is still solid, and their defensive line has a huge advantage over Michigan's offensive line. Look for the Spartans to get in the Wolverines backfield a lot in this game.

As good as Michigan's defense is, I believe their offense still has a lot to prove. Jake Rudock is nothing more than a game manager. Michigan State is going to try to make him beat them through the air. Connor Cook doesn't have enough weapons around him on offense this year. 

Both of these teams play very slowly. In fact, they are both in the bottom 20 in the nation in pace of play. A lot of running clock and solid defense throughout this one. Take the under. 

*4 Star MAC Totals TKO* The UMass Minutemen rank in the top ten in the nation in terms of pace of play. UMass is going to get snaps off quickly and look to put up a big number. Blake Frohnapfel is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country. He has a nice group of receivers led by Tajae Sharpe. UMass has an offense that should be able to score quite a few on almost every defense in the MAC. The UMass defense is one of the worst in the country. Kent State has struggled on offense this year, but they should look better in this one against a bad defense. Kent State is moving quicker on offense than last year as well. Take the over in this contest. 

*3 Star CFB Total VALUE* The Minnesota Golden Gophers have a hard nosed team that battles on every down. They aren't the most talented team, but they'll work as hard as anyone. Nebraska has had several really tough losses so far this year. The Cornhuskers don't seem a like team that comes in with much confidence. Minnesota's offense hasn't been able to do much at all against quality opponents this year, and Nebraska should slow them down. On the other hand though, I see Minnesota's defense doing a good job slowing down Nebraska's mediocre offense as well. This line has been bet up during the week, which gave us enough value to play this one. Take the under.