*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have now played 13 games at home this year. Only two of those games have gone under this total. 

Luis Castillo hasn't been the same pitcher this year. Every metric you look at he simply hasn't been the same as in recent years. There is something wrong with Castillo. I don't know if it is an injury or a bad release point or what, but the differences are drastic. 

Here is a look at a few select stats from Castillo in the last 3 years according to Baseball Savant. On these they are ranked by percentile with 100 percent being the best and 0 the worst.

K Rate- 2019- 81% 2020- 83% 2021- 13%

Average Exit Velocity- 2019- 83% 2020- 87% 2021- 35%

xERA- 2019- 85% 2020- 88% 2021- 33%

The Cubs have been very unfortunate in batted ball luck and their offense should improve with time this season.

Zach Davies has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. Davies has more walks than strikeouts in his first five starts. Davies has gone 4 innings or less in four of his five starts (the last 4). He has a 9.47 ERA and a xERA of 6.20. This Reds offense has been great at home.

Both bullpens are weak and they were used a lot last night. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Target Field is a place where you want to know the weather report. When the wind is blowing out at least 8 mph during the game the over is 74-49 in the last 123 contests. That will be the case for this game. 

Tom Hallion is the umpire behind the plate here, and he has called a far lower percentage of pitches a strike than most umpires so he helps the over here.

Danny Duffy has been good so far this year, but he is clearly due for regression. This is a guy who is past the peak of his career and he has a 0.39 ERA and a xERA of 3.98 this year.

Minnesota's lineup is getting healthier and this team is clearly going to be better offensively than they have been on the season as a whole thus far.

Shoemaker has been a good pitcher late in the season in his career, but in the early going he often struggles. He does have some trouble with the long ball and the wind blowing out here is an issue for him.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The number one and number two teams in the Western Conference playoff standings meet up tonight in Phoenix. 

Utah will be without both Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell is a huge loss on the offensive end. Though Utah made 64% of their shots and put up a massive number on Sacramento (no defense) in their last game, the Jazz still are at only 1.139 points per possession in their last 8 games. Before last game, their offensive numbers were way down without Mitchell. On the other side, Utah has actually been better on defense without Mitchell. 

Phoenix and Utah have met twice in the regular season. Neither of the two games have been even close to this total at the end of regulation (last game went into OT). 

This fits a great late season angle- two teams above 60% win percentage on the season playing against each other. These have been 57.5% to the under over a very large sample size.

This game means a lot to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have played 12 games at home this year. They have only had two of those games finish under this posted total. 

The weather in this game calls for winds of 13 or 14 mph blowing out during this game. That certainly is a help. 

The Chicago Cubs got Bryant and Baez back in the lineup yesterday, and they put up a big number against Atlanta. Chicago is last in the majors in batting average on balls in play, which means they are clearly due for positive regression as an offense. 

Wade Miley isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't great either. The Cubs do have quite a few guys who are noted for being good against left handed pitching.

Jake Arrieta is expected to start for the Cubs, and he is a clear negative regression candidate. Arrieta has a 2.57 ERA and a xERA of 4.08. His strand rate of runners is too high now, and he isn't generating many swings and misses. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Dane Dunning is a good young pitcher. Dunning had a 3.97 ERA and 3.67 xERA last year for the White Sox. He has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.31 xERA this year (a 2.46 FIP). Dunning has a career swinging strike rate of a solid 10.7%. 

Alex Cobb isn't a great pitcher by any means at this stage of his career, but he isn't bad. His advanced metrics show he has been unlucky this season so far. Cobb has a 6.28 ERA and a 3.81 xERA and a 2.53 FIP. 

Dunning is up against a good Angels lineup, but he'll be helped by this ballpark being a really good pitchers park. This stadium is now one of the five best pitcher parks in the majors. It has really suppressed runs last year and so far this season.

Cobb is up against a weak Texas lineup. The Rangers often struggle to string together hits because they just don't have any lineup depth.

Brian O'Nora is a solid under umpire and he is behind the dish here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals is a mess without Juan Soto. Soto is out for this game. Trea Turner was injured last game as well and he is questionable. If he's out the Nationals are arguably out their top two offensive players. 

Toronto is going with a bullpen game here. The Blue Jays have a deep bullpen. They rank in the top six or eight in the majors in advanced metrics across the board. 

Washington has been shut out in two of their last three games. They have scored 2 runs or less in six of their last ten games. 

Max Scherzer starts for the Nationals here. He has been very solid in the early going this season. Scherzer still has elite stuff and the Blue Jays are a team that strikes out quite a bit because they go after a lot of bad pitches. Scherzer should be able to strike out a lot of hitters here.

The under has hit at a little better than 55% in interleague games with a total of 8.5 or higher in the past ten years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Brady Singer and Matt Boyd both pitched great on Saturday and the final was just 2-1 when these teams met. I think this one will be higher scoring. 

The winds have switched around in a big way for this contest. Comerica Park is one where the weather plays a large role. With winds blowing out, this has been a really good over ballpark. The wind is expected to average about 13 mph out toward left and center field during this game. 

Danny Duffy has a 0.50 ERA this year, but his xERA is 4.33 and his xFIP is 4.04. Duffy has given up a bunch of home runs in recent seasons, and the ball should be flying pretty well here. The Tigers lineup has a .316 batting average and a .380 OBP against him.

Michael Fulmer has looked better this year, but I still don't see him as better than a mediocre pitcher. The Tigers bullpen might be the worst in the majors. The Kansas City lineup is certainly improved, and they should have plenty of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks have been red hot from the floor of late. New York is only a mediocre offensive team though, and I think they will regress to the mean. The Knicks are averaging 1.21 points per possession in their last five games. On the year, they are averaging 1.099 points per possession. 

Toronto will be without Chris Boucher here, and he has been red hot of late. Boucher is tied with Pascal Siakim as their highest rated offensive player on the season. Their offense takes a big hit without him. Freddie Gillespie will get a lot of the minutes at power forward. Gillespie is one of the lowest rated offensive players on this roster, but he rates better defensively than Boucher on the season.

The Knicks rate 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season. They also rank as the slowest paced team in the league.

This is a pretty high total for a Knicks game. An early start on a weekend helps the under in the long run as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Keeping an eye on batting average on balls in play is important at this stage of the season. This can be a really good measure of which offenses are getting fortunate or unfortunate. 

Which two teams rank as the most unfortunate in batting average on balls in play so far this year? The Yankees and the Indians. Here these two teams are matched up against each other. 

We have two lefties on the mound here. Jordan Montgomery has a career 5.03 ERA on the road. His weighted on base average allowed on the road is an ugly .334. 

Logan Allen has questionable control and that is something that makes me want to bet lower overs with. Allen works himself into too many jams. 

These two have good bullpens, but the starters are subpar. The offenses have been unlucky so far this year. This total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins offense isn't the same without Kepler, Garlick, and Simmons in the lineup. They are on the COVID 19 list right now. Minnesota has scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 7 seven games. In the other two games in that span they scored 3 and 4 runs. This lineup is struggling badly right now.

Frankie Montas has allowed only a .309 weighted on base average at home in his career compared to .344 on the road. Montas has a 3.92 ERA in the first half of the season in his career compared to a 5.29 ERA in the second half. 

Kenta Maeda is a consistent pitcher, and he has been good when his teams are struggling in the past. Maeda has a 3.40 ERA in the 1st half of the second and a 4.29 ERA in the 2nd half. Maeda has been very good so far this year. His command is excellent.

These two played a doubleheader yesterday and I think some starters will get a day off here on get away day. 

The under is 6-0 in Maeda's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 following a loss by his team in their previous game. The under is 4-0 in Montas' last 4 vs. a team from the AL Central.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Harvey looked terrible in 2019 and 2020. He's looked slightly better in 2021 in the early going, but he still has a terrible 6.9% swinging strike rate. Harvey has gotten a lot of swings out of the zone in the early going, but I think that will come back to earth going forward. Harvey isn't a good pitcher at this stage of his career.

Nick Neidert might be good in the future, but he hasn't been good so far. He has serious control problems. He also has a whiff rate in the 7th percentage of pitchers in the majors according to Baseball Savant. His xERA is 8.62 this season. Neidert can't be trusted either.

These two offenses have been inconsistent, but this is a low total for these two pitchers. Remember, both of these bullpens behind the starters are weak as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox travel to Cleveland for a big divisional game on Tuesday evening. 

Carlos Rodon pitched a no hitter the last time out against the Indians. I'm certainly not expecting him to be as dominant here, but I think he will pitch well again. Rodon didn't throw a ridiculous amount of pitches in his no hitter (114). Many of the pitchers who have struggled in their next start threw 125 pitches or more in that no hitter. Additionally, Cleveland is one of the worst offenses in baseball (bottom 5). They have struggled with left handed pitching for several years in a row. Rodon has better road numbers in his career vs. at home. 

Zach Plesac was blasted last time out by the White Sox, but I expect better from him here. Plesac has allowed only a .272 OBP at home in his career. Plesac gives up a lot of fly balls, but that isn't a terrible thing given the weather conditions for this game.

The temperature is expected to drop into the upper 30's during this game. The winds are expected to be blowing in from center field at 10-15 mph. The wind does matter quite a bit in Cleveland.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres start Joe Musgrove here. Musgrove has thrown 19 innings and allowed only 7 hits and one run so far this year. He has 2 walks and 24 strikeouts. Musgrove has been better in March/April than any other month of the season in his career, and it isn't even close. 

The Milwaukee lineup isn't great to begin with, but with Christian Yelich injured they are even weaker. The Padres have the best bullpen in the National League to back up Musgrove as well. It should be tough for Milwaukee's offense in this one.

The Padres lineup isn't totally healthy either. They are up against a top 10 pitcher in the big leagues here in Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff has elite strikeout stuff and has very solid control as well. San Diego has scored 3 runs or less in half of their games so far this season.

Two good bullpens and two excellent starters.

The under is 9-0 in Woodruff's last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in San Diego's last 6 as a home favorite. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under*  The Cleveland Indians have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Cleveland does still have a very good pitching staff. In fact, 11 of Cleveland’s first 15 games have stayed under this low total. 

Cincinnati has scored a bunch of runs this year. However, the Reds have unsustainable numbers when it comes to batting average on balls in play, and offensive production with runners in scoring position. The Reds will face one of the top three pitchers in all of baseball here. Shane Bieber is a strikeout machine, and he still has amazing control. Mike Moustakas has missed the last two games and is considered doubtful for this game due to an illness. 

Wade Miley will pitch for the Reds. In 2021, Miley has allowed only 4 hits in 11 innings pitched and has yet to allow a run this season. The Indians have struggled against left handed pitching for several years and now they are without Francisco Lindor. 

Ben May is the home plate umpire here, and he has consistently called more strikes than the league average.

Take the under.

*4 Star NBA Game of the Week* The first time these two teams played this year the Lakers won 96-95. Of course the Lakers had LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the floor for that game. What has changed for the Lakers without those guys? The biggest change has been their offensive efficiency has gotten much worse. 

The Lakers on the season are averaging 1.098 points per possession. They are averaging just 1.031 points per possession in the 14 games since LeBron went down with an injury. Their defensive efficiency has actually been slightly better in that time.

Boston struggled badly on defense for much of the year, but Brad Stevens finally has this team working much harder on defense of late. The Celtics rank fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Lakers rank first in defensive efficiency in that span.

The first game these two played was just 93.5 possessions. That is an extremely slow pace. The Celtics have slowed their tempo in recent games and the Lakers have played slower since adding Drummond. 

The Lakers have had 11 of their last 14 games go under this total. Four of the Celtics last six games have finished at 202 points or fewer.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves have a top five offense in the majors. They started the year slowly, but they have been rounding into form of late. Atlanta has a very low .241 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That is 27th in the majors and there is positive regression coming for Atlanta in the batted balls area.

Miami ranks 19th in batting average on balls in play. The Marlins don't have a great offense by any means, but it is good enough. They looked great on Tuesday and I think they'll have some chances in this one too.

Atlanta's bullpen is way down from where it was a year ago. They lost their top two relievers from last year and that is going to hurt quite a bit. It will force them to win more high scoring games.

Neidert starts for the Marlins and his minor league numbers are very mediocre. He has control problems and I don't trust guys who enter the big leagues with control problems, especially against really good lineups.

Alfonso Marquez is the umpire here. The over is a whopping 36-13 in his last 49 games behind the plate. It isn't just a fluke either, his strikes called percentage is the lowest in the majors during that time.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds offense may be better this year, but they aren't nearly as improved as they have looked so far this year. The Reds have a ridiculous .449 OBP with men in scoring position so far this year. The team in third in OBP with men in scoring position is at .388 so far this year. Regression is coming for the Reds. They are also in a pitcher friendly park here. 

Luis Castillo had a bad start in game one of the season, but he bounced back with a great start in game two. He is still a very good pitcher, and I expect a nice season from him. 

Kevin Gausman has really reinvented himself with the Giants. Gausman has always had a great splitter, but his secondary pitches have been much better of late. His swinging strike rate is excellent and this Reds team has several guys who are going to strike out a lot.

There were only 7 hits in their game last night. This one should be another low scoring contest.

The under is 8-0 in the Giants last 8 games. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Shane Bieber is a top five pitcher in the majors. Lucas Giolito is a top six or seven pitcher in the majors. These are two guys with multiple elite pitches and excellent command.

The Indians have a bottom five offense in baseball. While the White Sox do have a good offense, it isn't as good now with Jimenez out of the lineup. Both of these pitchers are great at missing bats, and the ball isn't flying as well in Chicago now with temperatures in the upper 40's during this game. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this game. Miller has been one of the two or three best under umpires in the majors in his career. He has consistently rung up batters at a much higher rate than average. If Bieber and Giolito are consistently getting the edges called more than normal here, we could see a very high strikeout total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Cubs offense has been terrible this year. They won't be this bad all year, but they have some awful numbers against Brandon Woodruff and I think it will be hard for them to turn it around here. 

Kyle Hendricks has been a steady strong performer for the Cubs for many years and I expect the same from him again this year. Hendricks doesn't give up many free passes and he limits hard contact.

While sometimes too much can be made of batter vs. pitcher numbers, I do pay attention when there is a large sample size. Both of these pitchers have shut down the opposition. 

Hendricks has allowed a .192 batting average and a .228 weighted on base average against this Brewers lineup in 172 at bats. Woodruff has allowed a .158 batting average and a .240 wOBA against this Cubs lineup in 95 at bats. 

Mike Estabrook is the home plate umpire here and he is a top ten under umpire in the majors.

The under is 45-17-1 in the last 63 meetings between the Cubs and the Brewers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lakers take on the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Monday night. The Lakers are coming off one of their best wins of the year. They defeated the Nets as a big underdog. The fact that they did it without LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Kyle Kuzma is really impressive. The Knicks are coming off an OT win over Memphis and a tight win at home against Toronto. Both teams are in pretty good form.

These two teams have been doing it with defense of late. The Lakers rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Knicks rank second. 

The Lakers rank 27th in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the last ten games. The Knicks rank 25th. 

This is a very low total in today's NBA, but it is low for a good reason. Only two of the Knicks last 9 games have gone over this low total. The Lakers have only had one game finish higher than 214 points in their last 9 contests despite playing some very good offenses in that span (Nets, Clippers, Bucks, 76ers). 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies start German Marquez here. Marquez has really struggled at Coors Field in the past few seasons, but he has been great away from home. Marquez has a stellar 0.99 WHIP and a 3.42 ERA on the road since the start of the 2019 season. In 3 starts at Oracle Park in San Francisco (20 innings pitched) he has a 1.35 ERA. Marquez has fantastic control, and he should pitch well here.

Anthony DeSclafani starts here for the Giants. The Rockies offense is far weaker than it has been in recent season. Colorado perennially finishes in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. They might finish in the bottom three this year. This is a weak offense. DeSclafani looked good in his first start and pitching in Oracle Park should help him.

The under is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 as an underdog. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* If you are looking for an over in Major League Baseball, you won't find a better umpire to have behind the home plate than Alfonso Marquez. Marquez is behind the dish for this game. 

The over went 25-8 in Marquez's games behind the plate in 2019. The over was 9-5 in his games last year. The over is 1-0 in his games this year. It isn't just that the games are going over though. Marquez has the lowest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the league in the last three seasons. 

Ian Anderson and Zach Eflin are both young pitchers with a lot of potential, but they face very good lineups here. I think both the Phillies and Braves are top eight offenses in the majors. The Braves haven't looked like it so far this year, but they will turn things around. 

Both Philly and Atlanta have very deep lineups. The guys at the bottom of the order are very capable of hurting you.

The Phillies bullpen is some better this year, but it is definitely still a relative weakness. The Braves bullpen is worse after they lost Greene and Melancon. 

The Braves offensive struggles out of the gate have this number set too low. Marquez being behind the plate is a nice bonus.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mets start Jacob Degrom here. Degrom has been dominant everywhere, but he has been especially amazing when pitching at home and in day games. How good has he been?

Degrom has an ERA of 1.94 in his last 40 starts at Citi Field. He has a WHIP of 0.889 or lower in each of his last three seasons at home. He has an ERA of 1.63 or lower in day games in all but three of his seasons in the majors. He has an ERA of 2.25 or lower in all but one year in the majors in day games.

He is at Citi Field here with cool conditions against a weak Marlins offense. I would expect a great showing from Degrom.

Trevor Rogers has very good stuff and he is a lefty with potential for the Marlins. The Mets have a lineup that should hit right handers better than lefties this year, as they did a year ago. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* When two good teams play each other late in the NBA season, I always want to take an initial look at the under. This one is one I have to play because of the spot.

Phoenix is coming off a huge win over the Jazz last night. The Suns really slowed the pace of that game down. They have shown to prefer a slow pace this year overall. 

The Clippers rank 26th in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games. They also rank fifth in defensive efficiency. This team has really turned things up on the defensive end of late. 

Phoenix ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that period. 

Both of these teams are good offensively, but with the pace I expect this to be played at they would need to shoot a very high percentage to get past the total.

In a key game between two high quality teams, I'll take the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics no longer have a dominant bullpen. Oakland starts Cole Irvin here, and I don't think he is a big league level starting pitcher. Irvin was hit hard by Houston in his first start and I think Houston has a lot of success again here. 

Houston scored 8 runs or more in each of the four games in Oakland in their 4-0 sweep. All four of those games went over the total. This Astros lineup is better than they showed last year, and I think they'll be one of the best in baseball this year.

Javier is only a mediocre pitcher for the Astros. Oakland's lineup is at least league average. The Athletics have a brutal .224 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That is bound to positively regress toward the mean.

If they do leave the roof open here (probable) the wind is blowing out 11 mph at gametime. That is a nice bonus.

The over is 6-0 in the last 6 games between these two teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the best players in all of baseball. The Padres lineup is still pretty good without him, but there is a significant drop off. He is the real catalyst for this lineup.

Kevin Gausman pitched very well last year for the Giants. Gausman has improved his command and sequencing. While he isn't a top pitcher by any means, he is a solid option.

Blake Snell is capable of dominating at any time. Snell moved from the AL to the NL and being in a pitcher's park he should have some very nice numbers this year. This Giants lineup is weaker than league average. Snell is backed up by an amazing Padres bullpen that has great depth.

I would have thought the under was a decent play with Tatis Jr in the lineup, and without him I think this number is too high. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gonzaga and UCLA shot lights out in the Final 4. Baylor's defense has been tremendous in the NCAA Tournament. The Bears likely know they need to win this game with their defense. 

Gonzaga and Baylor rank number one and number two in offensive efficiency. There isn't anything negative I can say about these two offenses. The equalizer is how high this totals number is and how big of a game this is for both teams. 

As a general rule, the under has fared better in big games on neutral courts. This is the biggest game of the year and it is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Could these teams nail a bunch of shots and go over this total? Of course they could. With the high stakes and this high of a total though, I have to side with the under. History is on the side of the under in this situation. 

Even Baylor's game against Arkansas (a very fast paced team) only got to 153 points despite great shooting from both teams. Gonzaga's matchups with Oklahoma, Creighton, and USC all went under this number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers are averaging only 1.01 points per possession without LeBron James in the lineup this year. That is drastically lower than their 1.14 points per possession with him in the lineup. The Lakers are still excellent on defense without LeBron. In fact, the Lakers rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing only 1.03 points per possession in their last seven games. 

The Clippers play at the third slowest pace in the NBA in their last seven games. The Clippers are also improving on the defensive end of late. They rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in that period. 

The Lakers just shot lights out from 3 point range in their win over the Kings in their last game. They are unlikely to be able to keep that up against a much more respectable defense in the Clippers. 

The Lakers have seen 7 of their last 8 games finish with 210 points or lower. The Clippers have seen 3 of their last 5 games finish with 199 points or lower. 

This is an early start on the West Coast and it is a rivalry game between division opponents.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians offense is one of the bottom five in the majors. Tarik Skubal has a lot of promise for the Tigers. He has multiple plus pitchers where he'll be able to generate a lot of swings and misses. The Indians are likely to struggle against left handers even more than right handers this year as well.

Aaron Civale is a guy I really like. Civale limits hard contact and has elite control. Civale averaged less than 2 walks per nine innings a year ago. He has raised his velocity in the Spring this year, and I think he has some nice upside. 

Detroit's offense is one of the worst in baseball as well. This is a lineup full of guys who swing and miss a lot. It is tough for them to string together big innings.

The weather is still cool and there is little wind in the forecast for this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins deserve a lot of credit for having gotten this far. This team was down double digits in the first half against Michigan State in the First Four. It's hard to believe that they rolled into the Final 4 by beating Alabama and Michigan in back to back games. They were able to turn the Alabama and Michigan games into much lower scoring games than expected. UCLA will try hard to slow the pace down here. Can they do it? I think Gonzaga will still push the tempo quite a bit, but I do think UCLA does a better job slowing the pace than USC did in the last round.

Gonzaga now ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency. While their offense gets all the credit (and it is awesome), this Gonzaga defense has looked very good as well. The Bulldogs have showed in each of their last two games that if they get a large lead they will definitely grind the pace down to a halt in the last six minutes or so of the contest. Since the spread sits at 14, there is a real chance this is one of those games where Gonzaga slows things down a lot late.

In the NCAA Tournament, betting the under in a game with a large spread has been a great long term betting system. 

This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium and the shooting backdrop in a huge football stadium like this can be very difficult. The under has done well here in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Zack Wheeler had a really solid season for the Phillies last year. Wheeler induced a lot of soft contact on the season. He doesn't give up many free passes either. 

Charlie Morton's velocity was up a lot in Spring Training. That's a great sign for a guy who was really good for several years in Tampa Bay. He had a down year last year, but I think he should bounce back this year.

Doug Eddings is the umpire here and he is the best under umpire in the majors. His called strike percentages are consistently the highest in the majors. 

Take the under here on a chilly day in Philly. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sacramento Kings beat the LA Lakers 123-120 a month ago. There were some extremely good shooting numbers on that night. Sacramento shot 60% from the floor. The Lakers shot 53% from the floor. The pace in the game was just 95.5 possessions. The two teams averaged a whopping 1.281 and 1.263 points per possession in that game. 

The Lakers offense has been a hot mess of late. I do realize the Kings have a weak defense and the Lakers could look a bit better here offensively. Still, this is a really high total for a Lakers game right now. The Lakers ranks second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency since LeBron went down to an injury. They also rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Lakers have seen only one of their last seven games go above 210 points.

Sacramento has played a bit slower of late, and their defense has been just a touch better. The Kings rank 15th in the NBA in tempo in their last seven games.

This is a divisional game and divisional games have gone under the total 53% of the time from game 42 on in the regular season.

I think the Lakers keep this game a bit lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The word from Spring Training is this year the baseball is a bit more "dead" than it was a year ago. Many are expecting a bit less in the way of scoring. 

Kenta Maeda broke out last year in a big way. Maeda had a 2.70 ERA and a 2.63 xFIP on the season. The Twins pitching coaches helped him with his sequencing a lot. 

Brandon Woodruff might be a top ten starter in the majors at this point. He is at least a top 15 guy. Woodruff has a great swinging strike rate, and he still has a low walk rate. 

The Twins have an above average bullpen. The Brewers have a top four bullpen in baseball. 

I see a low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs meet the USC Trojans and the winner will head to the Final 4. 

Gonzaga has been tremendous all season on offense. There isn't anything negative I can say about the Bulldogs offense. They are extremely balanced and talented. They are up against by far the best defense they have faced so far this year in this contest though. 

USC has been mixing in a lot of zone of late. Andy Enfield's team ranks first in the nation in 2 point defense (Gonzaga is 1st in 2 point offense). The Trojans have two great frontcourt defenders in the Mobley's. This will make Gonzaga work much harder for their points in the paint than they are accustomed to. The Bulldogs are still going to score quite a few, but I think USC can slow them down at least some.

USC's offense isn't as good as they have looked in the last two games. The Trojans are 21/35 from 3 point range in their last two games. This is a team that shot a little less than 36% from 3 point range in the regular season. 

USC has to know that they have a much better chance of winning this game if they slow down the pace. Enfield is a good coach so I trust him to try to have his team control the pace at least to some degree. 

USC is 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

This game is played at Lucas Oil Stadium which is clearly a plus for the under. 

In the NCAA Tournament- games with a spread of 6 or more and a total of 138.5 or higher are 147-105 to the under (58.3%) in the last 15 years. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The USC Trojans defense has been elite this year. USC is first in the nation in 2 point field goal percentage defense. Evan Mobley is an absolute force in the paint on defense. USC is still underrated by many people on the defensive end in my opinion. 

Oregon's Dana Altman is a tremendous defensive coach. He can game plan to play his matchup zone or even a 1-3-1 or man to man to keep the offense guessing. He is likely to bring out the full court press here, but it is a full court press that actually tends to slow the pace down and make the opponent work very hard to find an open shot.

Oregon ran up and down the court with Iowa. The Ducks haven't done that on many occasions. The fact that they nearly put 100 on Iowa has this total inflated by a few points. 

The first time these two played it was 72-58 and played to a slow pace of 62 possessions. This game means a ton and I think that will lead to strong defense and careful offensive possessions for the two teams. The fact that these two teams know each other so well also lends itself to a defensive minded game.

This should be a great matchup between two really good coaches. Expect open shots to be tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* What do the Charlotte Hornets look like without LaMelo Ball compared to with him? The Hornets rank 12th in the NBA in tempo for the season overall. In their last four games they rank 29th (second to last) in the NBA in tempo. They have clearly slowed things down, which makes a lot of sense because Ball is great in transition and they definitely miss him in the open floor.

Phoenix ranks 24th in the NBA in tempo on the season. The Suns are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. This is a team that is capable of scoring plenty, but their defense is often underrated. 

Sunday has been the best "under" day in the NBA for the past decade, and it isn't even close. This is an early start time (very early for Phoenix especially), and the early starts have been good under bets through the years as well.

The under is 4-0 in the Suns last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-2 in the Hornets last 7 Sunday games. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange are 29/58 from 3 point range in the NCAA Tournament thus far. Syracuse is just 35% from 3 point range on the season. Houston has ranked 1st, 8th, and 12th at defending beyond the 3 point line in the past three years. Kelvin Sampson's team should have a good game plan for really contesting Buddy Boeheim and company's long range jumpers here.

Houston plays at a very slow pace. They rank 325th in the country. The Cougars are a good offensive team, but they aren't quite as good offensively with DeJon Jarreau hobbled. He is a real playmaker for this team. The Syracuse zone is different than anything Houston has seen this year, and I do think it will give them trouble here. 

Syracuse has played noticeably slower in their last five games than they did earlier in the season. Houston wants to play slowly. I think the pace here is a pretty slow one. It will take some good shooting numbers to get past this. Both defenses are very solid.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Baylor Bears defense started out the season well, but they have tailed off badly throughout the last 10 or 12 games. Baylor is still very good defensively if they can force a lot of turnovers. This team thrives on forcing their opposition to waste possessions. Villanova ranks first in the country in turnover percentage according to KenPom. While Gillespie is out for Villanova, they have done a great job taking care of the basketball in the last four games without him as well.

Robinson-Earl is a tremendous weapon for Jay Wright. Baylor's weakness is their post defense. Expect Villanova to get Robinson-Earl a ton of touches in the paint area and put a lot of pressure on this Baylor defense.

Villanova's defense ranks 221st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defenses. This is the worst Villanova defense since 2008. Baylor is an extremely efficient offensive machine. The Bears rank 3rd in both offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage offense. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Baylor put up a big number here. Villanova has really struggled to defend the 3 point line this year, and Baylor is the best three point shooting team in the nation.

This one has the potential to be a foul fest late with a spread of 7 points. The offenses are much better than the defenses here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide rank second in the nation in defensive efficiency. Maryland ranks 27th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Terrapins rank 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency since the start of February though. Both of these teams are far better on the defensive end than the offensive end. 

Alabama ranks 9th in the nation in tempo and that kind of pace is certainly a concern with taking unders, but this is a tough matchup for the Alabama offense. Alabama wants to run and score in transition. Maryland ranks in the top 15 percent of teams in the nation in transition defense. 

Alabama's offense has been trending in the wrong direction of late. They rank 73rd in the nation in offensive efficiency during that time. They rank 39th for the year overall.

Maryland's tempo has drastically slowed late in the year. They rank 319th in the nation in tempo. Maryland likes to shoot a lot of shots from beyond the arc, but Alabama has held opponents to 28.5% from long range on the season.

Maryland has seen 13 of their last 15 games stay under this total. Despite their tempo, Alabama has seen 4 of their last 7 games stay under this total.

Both defenses are tough matchups for the opposing offense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers slow the tempo down as much as possible. Look for them to work hard to make this a halfcourt game. Oregon State has been playing a lot of zone defense lately, and when you are slowing down a game playing zone makes a lot of sense especially when the opponent is a team like Oklahoma State who wants to run as much as possible.

Oklahoma State hasn't seen much zone this year, but they rate in the 15th percentile in zone offense so far this year, so that could be a problem here. On the other end, Oklahoma State is an excellent defensive team, and they have been going zone part of the time lately as well. 

Oklahoma State is not a very good outside shooting team. Oregon State isn't as good offensively as they have looked in their last couple games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat defense had their single worst performance of the year on Friday night against Indiana. The Pacers absolutely torched them for 20/36 from 3 point range and 137 points. 

Miami is 3rd in points per game allowed on the year. They are second in field goal percentage defense. The Heat are a defense first team, and I expect a bounce back performance on defense here. Miami had allowed 103 points per game or less in eight straight games before that terrible performance on Friday night! 

Miami's Goran Dragic is questionable with a back injury here. Dragic is one of their best offensive players and a questionable defensive player. The Heat also signed Trevor Ariza who is thought of as a solid defensive contributor.

This is an early Sunday game and those have been good for the under in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas Jayhawks defense has been exceptional at the end of this season. Bill Self has talked extensively about how much he loves the way this team has improved on the defensive end of the floor. 

Eastern Washington has been good offensively for much of the year. The Eagles do have a couple impressive players offensively. Still, they aren't accustomed to going up against this kind of athletic defense with a bunch of length. Eastern Washington only scored 52 against Oregon. That is the best defense they have faced this year. Kansas is a much better defense than Oregon on the season. 

Kansas' offensive efficiency is way down this year. The Jayhawks will score on Eastern Washington, but it probably won't be as pretty as you would expect if you think of Kansas as the same team they were a few years ago.

These top seed games where the higher ranked team is a big favorite have gone under at a tremendous rate in the NCAA Tournament in the first round in the past decade.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida State Seminoles are favored by 10.5 points here. First round games in the NCAA Tournament with a total of above 138 have gone under the total at a nearly 60% clip in the last decade. This one fits that system.

Florida State is the tallest team in the country. It is extremely hard to get good looks inside the arc against the Seminoles. That's a problem for UNC Greensboro since they shoot 30% from long range and they rely strongly on Miller getting to the basket. Miller is a star point guard, but he is only 6'0 and I think Florida State's length will bother him.

Florida State's offense is hot and cold. If they are nailing a ton of 3's this could certainly lose, but I do think UNC Greensboro's pressure defense could give them some trouble here.

I think both teams are strong defensively and both coaches are good at putting together a good game plan to keep the opposition guessing by switching around defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Winthrop ranks 8th in the country in tempo. The Eagles are going to push the pace here. They haven't played a really good team all year. Villanova will be the best offense they have faced, even with Villanova without Gillespie at point guard.

Villanova ranks 9th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Yes, they are worse on offense without Gillespie. They still are far better than the teams Winthrop has been up against. This Villanova team is much weaker defensively than they have been in recent seasons as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game looks like a real slow it down defensive battle. These two teams are both elite on defense, and both of them have real question marks on offense. 

Rutgers is 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency (75th on offense). Clemson is 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency (99th on offense).

Clemson has been a poor team away from home and it has been their offense that has let them down more times than not. 

I would expect a close hard fought contest where the defenses have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* North Texas ranks 350th in the nation in tempo. The Mean Green are extremely deliberate all of the time. This is a team that ranks 20th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense as well. 

Purdue relies heavily on post up offense (more than anyone else in the nation). The Boilermakers have a ton of size and great low post players. Because of this, Purdue is very slow paced as well and they'll use up the shot clock. North Texas is great at post defense. The Mean Green are giving up only 0.80 points per post up which ranks in the top 10 percent of all teams in the country. They should make Purdue work harder than most teams do to score in the low post.

North Texas is reliant on the outside jumper, and Purdue does defend the 3 pretty well. The Mean Green can go through long scoring droughts at times.

This game is played at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is a big football dome where shooting has been a problem in the long run. This is a clear positive for the under on the whole.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys defense will be the best defense Liberty has seen all year. Mike Boynton is underrated as a defensive-minded coach. Liberty scored just 52 at TCU and 60 at Missouri. The Flames are a good offensive team, but they have played a bunch of very weak defenses in the ASun.

Oklahoma State has turnover problems on offense, and that can lead to inefficient offense at times. Liberty's defense is great on the glass. They rank 14th in defensive rebounding percentage in the country.

I fully expect Liberty Coach Ritchie McKay to have a game plan to do their very best to slow this game down to a crawl. Liberty knows they need a halfcourt game and they are excellent in transition defense. They won't go for second chance points much, they will just look to get back.

Liberty has been here before and I think they will make this game tighter than you might think. I do think Oklahoma State's length will bother their shots as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are favored by 25.5 points here. This one should be a very easy matchup for the Bears. Highly seeded teams who are favored by a wide margin have been great under bets in the past 15 years in the NCAA Tournament. I think this makes a lot of sense because the game has virtually no chance of going to overtime and there isn't much of a chance of a late foul fest.

Baylor would be well served here to get ready for their next game which would be tricky against either UNC or Wisconsin. I think they get a big lead and then slow things down some.

Hartford is known as a scrappy tough defensive team, but they have struggled to score on everyone this year. They only scored 53 against Villanova. They had some very low scoring games even against America East competition. Hartford is a one man show (Carter) on offense, and Baylor should have a good game plan for him.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mount St. Mary's plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the nation this year (only Virginia has been slower). The Mountaineers are unlikely to change up their style of play here. This is a team that looks to grind things down to a halt and win with halfcourt offense and offensive rebounds.

Texas Southern has only faced a couple teams this year that really slow things down (Alabama A&M and St. Mary's. St. Mary's shot lights out in TX Southern's loss to them. Mt St. Mary's isn't a good shooting team at all and they are unlikely to be able to do that here. Texas Southern improved a lot on defense this year, and they have several good shot blockers down low. 

Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot. This should be a sloppy game with both teams struggling with efficiency. It wouldn't surprise me to see the winner of this game in the lower 60's. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah Jazz have been money as a road favorite this year. Why? The Jazz have the best defense in the NBA at home, but they are merely mediocre defensively on the road. Utah has allowed 1.158 points per possession in their last 10 road games (that ranks 23rd in the NBA). They are now up against a Boston offense that has been on fire of late. Boston is averaging 1.208 points per possession in their last five games. They have been shooting the ball really well from the outside.

Boston's defense has been non-existent of late. Boston has allowed 1.183 points per possession in their last eight games. That is second worst in the NBA. The Jazz have a high powered offense now, and it is hard to see Utah struggling to score here.

Look for both offenses to have a leg up here.

The over is 5-0 in the Jazz's last 5 as a road favorite. The over is 5-1 in the Celtics last 6 home games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Houston Rockets offense is terrible. Houston is playing without John Wall, Victor Oladipo, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon, and Daniel House Jr. The Rockets are averaging 0.952 points per possession in their last five games. No one else in the NBA is averaging worse than 1 point per possession in that time. Have the Rockets played great defenses during that time? Not really. We'll give them the Utah Jazz being a tough defense certainly. The other four games were against: Sacramento, Brooklyn, Cleveland, and Memphis. Three of those teams rank in the bottom eight in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

The Boston Celtics defense has been weak of late, but this is the worst offense they have been up against lately and it isn't even close. Boston should grab a lead here and slow things down. They do prefer to play at a slow tempo compared to the league average. Boston's offense ranks just 19th in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the road. 

Houston's defense has been better at home, but their offense has actually been much worse at home this year than on the road.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have been great defensively at the end of the season. Illinois held Michigan to 53 points in their blowout win on March 2nd. The following game they held Ohio State to 68 points at home. They held Iowa to 71 points yesterday in a game played to 76 possessions. Illinois has been locked in defensively.

Ohio State will want to slow the pace down here. The Buckeyes slowed things down in a big way in their win over Michigan on Saturday. That game was played to just 61 possessions. The Buckeyes are likely to be without Kyle Young (concussion protocol), who actually has their highest offensive rating per KenPom. 

This game is played at Lucas Oil Stadium which is a football dome. These huge football domes have led to a lot of lower shooting percentages over the years and that has held true in this conference tournament season as well.

This is an awfully high total for a game for the Big Ten Championship and a game that is played on a neutral court that is clearly more difficult for shooters.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have played their last two games to 58 and 60 possessions. That's about as slow as you see. Western Kentucky plays slightly slower than average, and the Hilltoppers game against relatively fast paced UAB was only 65 possessions on Friday. 

This is the Conference USA title game. It will be played in Frisco, Texas at the Dallas Cowboys practice stadium. This is a football dome converted over to a makeshift college hoops court for this tournament. The under has been great in this tournament in the last few years and it has done very well again this year on the whole. 

Both of these teams have some turnover problems on offense, and that should be helpful for the under. Though both teams turn it over a lot, neither of the defenses try to push the tempo very much off their forced turnovers. 

These are two teams who don't foul very much, so unless there is a ref show here we shouldn't see too many trips to the line.

Look for a tightly contested game between two teams who know this is their only shot to get to the NCAA Tournament. These final games have tended to go under the total more often than not.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's the Big East Tournament Championship game between Georgetown and Creighton. Creighton is still the good offense they have been in the past, but they are much better on defense than they were in previous seasons. 

Creighton really locked down on UConn in Friday night's semifinal win. Georgetown's offense is too reliant on a couple guards. The Hoyas also rely on getting to the line and knocking down free throws. Both of these defenses rank in the top 50 in the nation in defending without fouling. 

Georgetown tends to go through long droughts offensively. Creighton relies heavily on jump shots and Madison Square Garden is a really tough shooters gym. 

In the long run, Madison Square Garden has arguably been the best under arena in all of college hoops. The shooting percentages here have been consistently been low, and the long term under percentage on a neutral in the postseason is about 60%. Both games in the semifinals went way under the total here on Friday night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays and UConn Huskies met twice in the regular season. Both of those games stayed under the total in regulation. They now go to Madison Square Garden, which has been arguably the single best under arena in college basketball. 

UConn kept running the floor and pouring it on DePaul last night, but they have slowed their pace when they play similar foes. Creighton is a very worthy opponent. I think UConn tries to win this one with their defense, which is the best in the Big East.

Creighton's defense isn't elite, but it is much better this year than it has been in the last couple seasons. They have played several low scoring games against top opponents this year too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Lucas Oil Stadium is proving to be really difficult for shooters in this Big Ten Tournament. This is a football dome turned into a basketball arena, and these spots have been great to under bettors in the past.

Wisconsin and Iowa played two slow paced games in the regular season. The first stayed under the total easily. The second went over the total late with some hot shooting in the final minutes as well as some fouling.

Iowa's Joe Wieskamp is questionable here and if he plays he is not 100 percent. He actually ranks first on the Iowa team in effective field goal percentage offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* St. Peter's put up a season's best 1.23 points per possession last night. Based on this team's offensive profile throughout the season, it is unlikely they'll be able to do that again.

Fairfield and St. Peter's are the two slowest paced teams in the MAAC. Their two regular season contests finished at 105 and 115 points total and they were very slow paced games. 

This is a win or go home game at Boardwalk Hall in New Jersey. Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue in the past and I think there is a good chance the poor shooting numbers show up once again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds rank tenth in the nation in FTA/FGA. They make a living at the line. Montana State ranks 7th in the nation in the same statistic. I would expect a ton of trips to the charity stripe in this game. The spread here is set in that area where a foul fest in the final minute or two is very possible as well. That can really add to the game total late.

Southern Utah's quickness on the perimeter should be really tough for Montana State to defend. At the same time, Southern Utah has struggled defending the paint. Neither of these teams have a shot blocker.

All of the totals are getting bet down due to neutral court unders being a good strategy overall, but this isn't a bad arena for shooters and we've seen some quick whistles and very good shooting percentages in the Big Sky Tournament.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green and LA Tech Bulldogs meet in Frisco this afternoon. 

This venue has seen under after under in recent years. Last night the under went 3-1 in this football stadium turned into a strange basketball venue. 

North Texas plays at the slowest pace in the conference. LA Tech ranks number one in the conference in defensive efficiency. 

I think we see a grinder here between two very solid teams who are looking to punch their spot in the CUSA title game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Ohio State Buckeyes met twice in the regular season. Purdue won both of those games. The Boilermakers won 67-60 at home and 67-65 at Ohio State. 

Lucas Oil Stadium is a football field first and foremost, and these huge football domes converted over to basketball courts have been good for unders in the long run. The shooting numbers in the Big Ten Tournament thus far have been very low.

Ohio State nearly blew their game against Minnesota yesterday. There were 26 points scored in the last 1:35 of that game. 

Purdue prefers a slow paced game unlike Minnesota. The Boilermakers and Buckeyes have played several very slow paced games in a row over the last few years.

Both teams are capable of shooting it well, but with a high total, slow pace, and this being in a football stadium.. this is an under play for me.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Old Dominion Monarchs have been one of the best defenses in CUSA for many years. They started the season out playing much worse defense than expected, but Coach Jones has helped turn this team into a much better defense late in the year.

North Texas is a strong defensive team. They also play at the slowest pace of any team in the league. The Mean Green are very good at getting a lead and then slowing the pace down to a crawl. They are favored here, and I do think they have a good chance at winning this one.

This game is played in Frisco, Texas. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice stadium and there will be two games going on at once. The game setup here has led to some very low totals in recent years. It is a clear boost for the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Atlantic Owls offense is inefficient. They rely on offensive rebounds and three pointers for most of their points. The Louisiana Tech defenses ranks first in CSUA in defensive rebounding and in 3 point percentage defense.

Louisiana Tech ranks first in the league in defensive efficiency overall. Late in the season they have been stellar on the defensive end. LA Tech has been inconsistent on offense. They have been much better offensively at home, but they are on a neutral court here.

This game is played in Frisco, Texas. This is a Dallas Cowboys practice stadium and there will be two games going on at once. The game setup here has led to some very low totals in recent years. It is a clear boost for the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Big East Tournament takes place in Madison Square Garden. Neutral site games in the postseason have gone under the total at Madison Square Garden in almost exactly 60% of games in the last ten years. 

DePaul tries to play quickly, but they are very inefficient on offense. The Blue Demons are up against the best defense in the Big East here. UConn's length and athleticism should really bother them.

UConn's offense has been hot and cold. In their first game playing at MSG, I think their shooting percentages are likely to be below average.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City has been a great under venue. This is a tough shooting backdrop where we have already seen some extremely low scoring games in the MAAC Tournament since they have moved to this site in recent years. 

St. Peter's is arguably the best defense in the MAAC. They also do a great job slowing the pace down. The Peacocks do a great job on the defensive glass, and they don't give up much of anything near the hoop. 

Rider typically wants to run, but St. Peter's has shown the ability to slow them down in recent matchups. 

This is a win or go home game on a very favorable floor for unders. A very sloppy game is likely.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tulsa and Tulane have met three times since Ron Hunter has taken over at Tulane. In those 3 contests the final scores have been: 67-54, 62-57, and then this year's contest was 58-48. Three games that went comfortably under this very low total. 

Tulsa hasn't shown the ability to score on this unique zone of Tulane at a high rate. Tulane's offense is terrible in the halfcourt, and Tulsa's transition defense is very good. 

Both of these teams are very capable of a lot of wasted possessions with bad turnovers on offense. The two defenses aren't very good at converting turnovers into quick points though.

I think we see another tight game that is low scoring all the way.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Gillespie is a huge loss for this Villanova team. Moore is also doubtful here for the Wildcats, and that is another key piece to the puzzle missing. Villanova's offense looked terrible against Providence without these guys. They will probably be a little better here, but I don't see them being nearly as efficient as they were most of the year.

Georgetown's defense has gotten stronger late in the season. The Hoyas have pretty good length and they are very athletic.

Madison Square Garden is the site of this game, and this is a great under arena. That alone is worth a few points on the total. This is an early tipoff which is a plus as well. The long term trends point to unders on neutral courts being strong and the early games going to the under even more.

Villanova likely slows this game down and neither team is likely to be terribly efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Xavier Musketeers and Butler Bulldogs have played twice this year. The final total in those two games was 123 and 124 points.

Butler is the worst offensive rebounding team in the Big East. Xavier is the second worst in offensive rebounding in the Big East. Both of these teams are good on the defensive glass. Neither team gets to the line much either.

This game is played at Madison Square Garden, where the under has been a terrific bet in the long run. The shooting backdrop here is really tough and there won't be many people at all in attendance. 

Butler will slow the pace down here, and Xavier's offense has been inefficient down the stretch. Butler's offense has been very weak all year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgetown Hoyas and Marquette Golden Eagles meet in the first round of the Big East Tournament on Wednesday.

Madison Square Garden is the site for this game. MSG is a long term proven great under arena. The under is an impressive 63-41 in neutral site postseason games at MSG in the last 104. The shooting backdrop here is a tough one. It's a massive arena, and there won't be many people at all here.

Marquette plays very slowly and they have done a good job controlling the tempo this year. Georgetown does play quicker, but they are very inefficient on offense. If their long range jumpers start falling this could go over, but playing at Madison Square Garden for the first time makes the likelihood of them getting hot lower.

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jackson State Tigers have played the Pine Bluff Golden Lions twice this year. The final totals were 123 and 122 points. The second game that finished at 122 points went into overtime and still finished that low. 

Jackson State is the best defense in the SWAC, and it isn't even close. Pine Bluff plays at the slowest pace of any team in the SWAC, and they are very offensively challenged.

This being a neutral site game between two very inefficient offenses makes it fit into a system play for me (bad teams on a neutral site go the under at a high rate long term). 

Look for another ugly game between these two.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison play at the second slowest tempo in the Summit League. North Dakota has been very good at controlling the pace over the last few years. 

Taking teams who have been playing day after day to go under the total has been a good system. Teams who have both played in at least two of the last three days and are playing again today are 117-75 to the under since 2006. That is the case here.

This game means a lot to both teams obviously since the winner of this one goes to the NCAA Tournament. 

Oral Roberts takes a ton of 3's, and North Dakota State is the best 3 point defense in the Summit League. North Dakota State is #1 in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage as well. Both games between these two in the regular season were played to a slow pace, but one became a foul fest late and went slightly past this total. The other finished at 115 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams just played each other twice at the end of the regular season. One of the games finished right at this total, and then the final game went over this total easily. Those games meant next to nothing to these teams. That isn't the case here. This is a win or go home game. 

Boardwalk Hall has been a great under venue in the past. Both of these teams like to play slowly and they are better on defense than they are on offense. 

These two played at Boardwalk Hall in the conference tournament last year and the final was 61-43. These two also played in the first game of the conference tournament in 2019 and the final was 57-53. There is a history of ugly very low scoring games against each other.

I look for the defenses to have the upper hand in this game. Look for a very slow pace and some bad shooting percentages.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins have turned into a really good under team in the last half of the season. In Maryland's last 11 games, only two of them have gone over 131 points. 

Maryland played Penn State in Happy Valley a month ago and lost 55-50. That was a game played to Maryland's prefer pace (slow). 

Penn State has been inconsistent on offense. They rely on too many low quality long jumpers. Maryland has been good defensively of late and the Terrapins have a lot of length that can bother Penn State.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Oral Roberts and North Dakota played twice in the regular season. Those two games finished at 143 and 131 points. 

This game is played at the Sanford Center. This has been a very good under arena in the long run. The shooting backdrop here isn't an easy one. 

The Summit League has a bunch of good offenses, but these teams rely on jump shots a lot. In these win or go home games in a difficult venue those can be tougher to knock down.

The regular season games both stayed under and now we get a much higher total in a crucial game for both teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs got into the final with a last second win over Missouri State yesterday. Missouri State is a quality offenses, but they aren't very good on defense. Drake now goes on to face the best defense in the Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola Chicago can really lock teams down defensively.

These teams played a back to back in mid-February. The first game was 81-54 Loyola and the second was 51-50 Drake (in overtime). The pace in both games was extremely slow. I wouldn't expect anything different here. 

Enterprise Center is a tremendous under venue. The opening total has stayed under almost 67% of the time here in the past 15 years. 

Both of these teams are great on the defensive glass and they don't foul much. Those are good combinations for an under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Delaware Blue Hens have had their last eight games canceled because of COVID. They haven't played a game in more than a month. Hofstra has had less trouble, but they still haven't been able to play a game since February 14th. Two teams off COVID pauses. 

Now these two teams must go play on a neutral court at 11 am eastern in a game that is win or go home. 

Neutral court unders have done really well in conference tournaments in the long run. Early games on neutral courts have done slightly better than the neutral court games overall.

Both games between these two in the regular season were under this and this particular matchup means a lot more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State Aggies defense is extremely tough to get open looks against. Fresno State has shown that they have a very hard time against the top defenses. Fresno doesn't move without the ball well at all. 

Utah State may be without their best shooter (Miller) again in this game. That gave them trouble in their last contest against a weak Wyoming defense. Fresno State is a big step up defensively from Wyoming.

The earlier game between these two was very low scoring and played at a very slow pace.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a Summit League Tournament game. These games are played at Sanford Pentagon, which has been a good under venue in the past.

This is an extremely high total for two teams who aren't all that fast paced. This is a conference where there is a lot of scoring in the regular season, but in past years that has led to unders being valuable in the postseason. I think that is the case again here. Things should tighten up when the game means more.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Grand Canyon Antelopes have consistently controlled the pace of the game and played very low scoring contests, especially on their home floor. In conference play, Grand Canyon's home games have finished with the following amount of total points: 132, 118, 132, 127, and 114 points. 

Utah Valley is more efficient on offense at home, but quite a few of their road games they have struggled shooting the basketball. They got a bunch of offensive rebounds yesterday, but since Grand Canyon is good on the defensive glass normally, I would expect those rebounding issued to be cleared up for Grand Canyon today.

These are the top two teams in the league in the standings in the final regular season game. This game means plenty to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Belmont Bruins and the Morehead State Eagles meet tonight for a chance at the big dance. Morehead State is the best defense in the OVC. Belmont is the second best defense in the OVC. 

These final games in the small conferences at a neutral site have been great under moneymakers in the long run. In fact, the under is 60% exactly on the closing line at non power five conferences in the final game.

The game should slow down and the defense tighten up.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* This is the final regular season game for both of these teams. Both teams have proven they prefer to run and gun when given the chance. They certainly did it against each other last night. 

Last night it was 89-85. I think we'll see a high score again here. UC San Diego shoots a bunch of 3's, and if they are missing this game could certainly go under. However, Fullerton is a poor defensive team especially against those long range jumpers.

CS Fullerton is the second fastest paced team in this league and they have had a bunch of high scoring games.

This game means little to these teams and that generally helps scoring especially late in the season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels renew their rivalry on Saturday night. The first game this year went way over the posted total. I don't expect this game to be that high scoring, but I do like the over here.

The biggest reason is both teams are tremendous on the offensive glass. There should be a bunch of second chance scoring opportunities for both teams. That often leads to easy layups or fouls and free throw attempts. 

Additionally, both Duke and UNC have been good at forcing turnovers this year, and they both are great at scoring in transition. Quick turnovers and easy scores or fouls will also help the over in this one.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Elon's offense has struggled all season. This is a team that shoots a bunch of 3 pointers, and they haven't been good at all at them. They now go to play at a neutral court site where shooting is more of an issue.

Towson's offense is very weak. The Tigers rely heavily on offensive rebounding to get their points, but Elon is one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the country.

Two under .500  teams playing on a neutral court has been a strong under angle in the past decade. I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* East Tennessee State and Chattanooga played twice in the regular season. The pace was extremely slow in both games. The first game was played to just 61 possessions and both teams shot far above their season averages to finish at 132 points. The second game was 60 possessions and the final score was 53-51. 

This is a neutral site game which is a positive for the under. These win or go home games on neutral sites in conference tournaments have been very good under bets for many years. There hasn't been a big adjustment made to the number here. 

Both teams like to play slow and neither does very much fouling. Look for a close low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Loyola Chicago Ramblers have the best defense in the Missouri Valley Conference, and it isn't even close. Indiana State won 53-43 over Evansville yesterday in a game that featured a very slow pace and terrible shooting.

This game is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. The opening total has stayed under almost exactly 67% of the time in games played here in the past 15 years.

Look for another very low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Samford has been on a COVID pause to end the season. They aren't expected to be at full strength here.

These two teams met twice in the regular season. Both games went to overtime. Even after overtime one of the games was under this number. At the end of regulation, the two games were 59-59 and 66-66. 

Mercer has slowed their pace down drastically in the last ten games. This was a team who was happy to run and gun early on. That hasn't been the case lately. Mercer has had only one game in their last 11 games go over this total in regulation, and it was only 151 points. That included games against The Citadel and Western Carolina. 

Samford has been extremely inefficient on offense down the stretch. They'll try to force the pace, but they aren't good shooters. Samford has scored 66 points or less in regulation in their last five games. 

Neither team has gotten to the line much in league play.

Being played on a neutral court is a clear positive for the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Southern Illinois and Loyola Chicago played in the final two games of the regular season. Those two games both finished regulation at 112 points.

Southern Illinois shot the ball well last night, but Lance Brown was injured and may be unable to play today. That's a key injury for the Salukis. They now go against the best defense in the conference.

Loyola Chicago's last four games have finished regulation at 90 points, 106 points, 112 points, and 112 points.

This game is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is Arch Madness for the Missouri Valley Conference. This has been arguably the single best under venue in the country in the past decade. On the opening total, the under has hit at a little better than 65% in neutral site games played at Enterprise Center in the past ten years. Even on the closing line (which is usually lower by a good amount the under has hit better than 60% of the time). 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams just played the final two games of the regular season against each other. In general we have seen in the long run that teams matching up a bunch of times close together tends to lead to a bit slower paced games and better defense. Familiarity with what the opposition is doing is the main reason.

Illinois State isn't good at all on offense. They have been inefficient on offense all year. Northern Iowa started the year playing fast, but they have slowed down a bit in recent weeks. 

This game is win or go home and I would expect that to slow the pace down a bit as well.

This game is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is Arch Madness for the Missouri Valley Conference. This has been arguably the single best under venue in the country in the past decade. On the opening total, the under has hit at a little better than 65% in neutral site games played at Enterprise Center in the past ten years. Even on the closing line (which is usually lower by a good amount the under has hit better than 60% of the time). 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bradley is playing shorthanded. They had their stars a few weeks ago when these two teams met, but now they are much more limited on offense and that has led them to slow their pace down some. 

Southern Illinois hasn't had a total finish higher than 135 in their last seven games, so they very rarely have a high scoring contest. With this being a win or go home game, it isn't likely either of these teams will speed their pace up here.

This game is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is Arch Madness for the Missouri Valley Conference. This has been arguably the single best under venue in the country in the past decade. On the opening total, the under has hit at a little better than 65% in neutral site games played at Enterprise Center in the past ten years. Even on the closing line (which is usually lower by a good amount the under has hit better than 60% of the time). 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte Hornets have been playing at a much faster pace in recent games. Without Zeller and Hayward, the team has a lineup full of weak defensive players, but guys who are more than capable of getting out and running. Charlotte is 4th in the NBA in tempo in their last five contests. The Hornets are also second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that period.

Minnesota is playing much faster under their new head coach. The Timberwolves have shot the ball poorly in their last couple games. They should shoot it better here. In the games since he has been coach, the Timberwolves games have gone to 251, 238, 240, and 217 points in regulation.

The Hornets last 5 games have finished at 242, 245, 251, 253, and 234 points. 

This total is high, but it isn't high enough. There should be a ton of uptempo basketball here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Alabama Crimson Tide are first in the SEC in tempo, and isn't even close. Auburn is third, and Bruce Pearl's teams are certainly not known for trying to change up their scheme to slow the game down.

Alabama won the first meeting this year between these two by a score of 94-90. That game was played to a ridiculously fast pace of 88 possessions. Alabama uses a lot of pressure in the full court and tries to create transition scoring opportunities. The biggest weakness of this Auburn offense is their trouble taking care of the basketball. That should create easy scoring chances for Alabama off the turnovers.

Alabama takes a bunch of three pointers, and this Auburn defense is only mediocre at defending beyond the arc. 

Both teams are better on the offensive glass than on the defensive glass. 

The last three times these teams have met the pace has been extremely fast. I don't expect this to be any different.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Timberwolves have a new coach in Chris Finch. Finch has made it clear he wants the team to push the pace. In his first three games as coach, the Timberwolves are 3-0 to the over. They rank second in the NBA in tempo in the last three games as well. Minnesota has a bottom five defense in the NBA, so if they want to play this fast I fully expect them to continue giving up a bunch of points. In Finch's first three games, the Timberwolves games have had totals of 251, 236, and 240 points. 

Phoenix plays at a slower pace than Minnesota, but the Suns are number one in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. The Suns should get a ton of open looks against this terrible Minnesota defense. While the Suns offense has been great of late, their defense has been subpar in the last ten games. 

With the Suns efficiency and Minnesota's pace, I think this one is a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs rank fourth in the country in tempo. Gonzaga pushes the pace every single game. Loyola Marymount has sped up quite a bit compared to their pace a year ago. While they might prefer to play quite a bit slower than Gonzaga here, I don't think they will have much of a choice. Gonzaga is likely to jump out to a big lead early and force Marymount to run when far behind.

Both of these teams are great at getting to the free throw line. Expect plenty of points from the charity stripe in this game. 

Gonzaga gets to the hoop and scores at an extremely high efficiency rate. Loyola Marymount lacks the shot blockers to slow them down.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Pacific Tigers host San Francisco in a West Coast Conference matchup on Saturday night. 

Pacific has had a lot of terrible offensive performances in the last few weeks. The Tigers have scored 52 points or less in three of their last nine games. The Tigers play at a very slow pace, and they are good at controlling the tempo against just about everyone. 

San Francisco just had a high scoring game against BYU that was misleading. The game was played to a very slow pace of just 62 possessions, but both teams were extremely efficient on offense. Barcello for BYU was 7/7 from 3 point range in that game. Pacific's offense is far weaker than BYU's, and they play much slower as well.

I think this total is too high by several points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UMKC Kangaroos are the best under team in the Summit League. With Billy Donlon as their head coach, this team is doing a fantastic job controlling the tempo. This offense is a weak one, but their defense is easily best in the Summit League. They are giving up only 0.938 points per possession in league play.

South Dakota State won last night's game easily, but the pace was still slow and it stayed far under the total. This game is likely to be similar. I do think it will be higher than last night, but we have quite a bit of room to work here. 

Both of these teams are excellent defensive rebounding teams, which is a big plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Wizards rank first in the NBA in tempo. The Minnesota Timberwolves have played much faster in their first two games since new coach Chris Finch took over. He is a guy who really wants to see the team space out the floor and move quickly. Karl Anthony Towns will get plenty of chances to show himself as an offensive playmaker in this system.

Washington isn't a good defensive team. The Wizards do have several very athletic players who can get to the basket or create open looks from the outside for their teammates. This Minnesota defense is a bottom five defense in the NBA.

This is a really high total, but I believe this number is still too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams met earlier this year and the final total was 166 points. Tennessee State has picked up their tempo in a significant way over the last few weeks. 

Eastern Kentucky is the fastest paced team in this league, and it isn't even close. With their full court pressure they can create a bunch of quick scoring opportunities. 

The pace of this game should be fast enough that it will take some ugly shooting numbers to stay under this number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* High Point and USC Upstate have had five games in the last two seasons. None of them have finished with a total higher than 132 points. 

High Point and USC Upstate are both relatively slow paced teams. Both are also inefficient on offense. They have consistently been low scoring and sloppy in their games against each other.

This is a Big South Tournament game. The loser of this game goes home and their season is over. That kind of situation has tended to lean toward the under in the long run since the game usually slows down a bit and the defenses work very hard in such a big game for them.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies are the best defense in the Big East. UConn has elite shot blockers and they will change the game here. Marquette was only able to put up 54 at home against UConn earlier this year (65-54 game). 

UConn prefers a slow pace as does Marquette. The first game between these two was played to only 60 possessions. This one is likely to be a little faster than that, but I expect it to be played in the halfcourt most of the time.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wisconsin has had two games in the Big Ten all season go over this number. The Badgers are excellent at controlling the pace of play. They aren't very good on offense either. This team has some identity problems on the offensive end. They simply don't have many go to guys and they don't have the ability to get inside the paint often at all.

Illinois played without star Ayo Dosunmu in their last game and most believe he will miss this game or be very limited. The Fighting Illini offense is definitely far different without him. It would likely slow their pace as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The under has been a great play in Clemson's games as a home favorite in the past. Brad Brownell's teams don't tend to run up the score, and if they do it is usually by clamping down on defense rather than pushing the pace and scoring a huge number.

Miami is extremely limited offensively right now. The Hurricanes have suffered a bunch of injuries and some key players have left the team as well. I don't expect them to have much luck against this Clemson defense.

Take the under.