*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have drastically slowed down their pace of play this year. Illinois was 79th in overall tempo last year, and they are just 216th so far this year. In Big Ten play, they are using 19.1 seconds on an average possession. 

Illinois has played excellent defense as well. They are first in the Big Ten (a league with plenty of good defenses) in effective field goal percentage defense in Big Ten play. Illinois has held their last two opponents, and 3 of their last 5, to 56 points or less.

Wisconsin is playing quicker than they did in the past, but the Badgers aren't going to turn into Iowa overnight. Wisconsin is still slightly slower than an average team. The Badgers are excellent on the defensive glass, which should help a lot against a big weapon for the Illinois offense (second chance points).

Both of these two teams have played a top 20 slate of opposing offenses, so their defenses are very well tested.

I think this is a tight game that stays lower scoring than expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Riverside Highlanders are a really good defensive team. UC Riverside ranks 14th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. 

UC Davis is taking a lot of bad shots in their Big West games. UC Davis has poor spacing and they are taking far too many low quality mid range jumpers this season.

The Aggies defense does foul a lot, but UC Riverside ranked in the bottom 20 in the country in free throw attempts last year, and they are in the bottom 80 again this year. The Highlanders offense is very deliberate as well.

Only one of UC Riverside's last eight games has gone over this total. They are the better team and I like them to keep this one to a low scoring defensive game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns have held their last 3 opponents to 51, 50, and 51 points. Texas is excellent defensively with Chris Beard as their head coach. Beard knows this Texas Tech team and program well, and this is going to be a huge game.

Texas Tech's defense has been elite under Mark Adams this year. I'm impressed with the job Adams has done so far this year. The Red Raiders rank 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Texas is 9th. These are two teams that aren't going to give up open shots very often. 

Texas hasn't been great in transition defense, but they are #1 in the country in half court defense. This game should be played in the halfcourt.

Texas Tech is excellent against cutting action (8th in the country). Texas runs about as much of that style of offense as anyone in the country.

A low scoring tight game. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is all about offense. Over the long run (more than a decade), the over is a little above 55% overall in conference games.

Portland State was ice cold shooting the ball for a long time earlier this year, but positive regression has hit. The Vikings have also been playing at a faster tempo again of late. Portland State has had games with 163, 167, and 173 total points in their last three games. 

Northern Colorado ranks second in the Big Sky in average possession length. The Bears are really pushing the pace of late. Northern Colorado has played seven games in the Big Sky. Their lowest scoring game has been 152 points.

A quick pace and two subpar defenses especially in transition.

My numbers were several points higher on this one. I see good value here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is all about offense. Over the long run (more than a decade), the over is a little above 55% overall in conference games.

Southern Utah's offense started the season a little slower than expected, but the Thunderbirds have been great on offense of late. Southern Utah has had five straight games where the final total in the game has hit at least 160 points. Southern Utah hasn't scored less than 81 points in any of those contests.

Northern Arizona has one of the worst defenses in the Big Sky. The Lumberjacks have allowed 89 and 97 points in two of their last four games. On the other side, Northern Arizona ranks first in the Big Sky in 3 point percentage. Southern Utah has had trouble defending the 3 point line the last couple seasons.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs offense is back. Kansas City wasn't the offensive juggernaut everyone expected earlier this year, but they had a lot of new faces on the offensive line. They have gradually improved throughout the year. Also, Andy Reid is getting more aggressive with his play calling in the playoffs. It is working in a big way. Kansas City had 478 yards and 42 points against a decent Steelers defense. They then put up 42 points and 552 yards in an overtime win over the #1 ranked defense of the Buffalo Bills.

The Cincinnati Bengals have some excellent weapons on offense. Cincinnati's Joe Burrow is a star at quarterback. Burrow is an extremely accurate passer and a good decision maker. Surrounding him with Mixon, Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Uzomah gives the Bengals excellent options on offense. As long as the offensive line can be decent, I think the Bengals can score quite a few points here.

These two teams met in Cincinnati last month. The Bengals won 34-31 as that game sailed over the total. The Bengals had 7.5 ypp and the Chiefs had 7.1 ypp. The offenses couldn't be stopped. 

The Bengals and Chiefs defenses are better than last season, but they aren't good enough to stop the opposing offenses here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Indiana State is the fastest paced team in the Missouri Valley Conference. First year coach Josh Schertz has brought his uptempo style to Terre Haute and the Sycamores are having some high scoring contests.

Indiana State shoots a bunch of shots from long range. The Sycamores were without Cameron Henry in three games recently, but he is back and he is the star of this offense. Henry missed the first matchup with Bradley, but Indiana State still put up 76 points in a win.

Bradley ranks 4th in tempo in the MVC. The Braves don't mind running either. Bradley attacks the basket very hard, and Indiana State is a really poor defense in the interior. Indiana State has no shot blockers. They will struggle to slow down Mast and Leons for Bradley.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wofford Terriers and UNC Greensboro Spartans have played to 48-45 and 58-54 final scores in their last two meetings with each other. 

UNC Greensboro plays at the slowest pace of any team in the Southern Conference. The Spartans have faced an easy slate of defenses (303rd out of 358 in schedule toughness), but they still have struggled on offense. They have faced the 98th toughest slate of offenses. Their defensive numbers are still impressive.

Wofford ranks in the bottom 50 in the country in terms of tempo as well. They should be happy to play this game in the halfcourt. 

Both of these teams are excellent on the defensive glass, and neither of these teams are committing many fouls either.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Albany Great Danes have stayed under this total in 12 of their last 14 games. Albany just played a 64-62 game that went into overtime.

These two teams met recently and the final was 71-56 Albany. The Great Danes shot the ball much better than average in that game. Albany ranks 333rd in offensive efficiency in the country and they rank 348th in the country in shot selection.

NJIT ranks an ugly 342nd in offensive efficiency and 323rd in the country in shot selection. The Highlanders have scored 57 points or less in four of their last five games.

These two teams are both much slower paced than an average team. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kentucky Wildcats will reportedly get Tyty Washington back for this contest. Washington is crucial to the team's success on offense. He may not play his normal minutes, but him playing any is helpful here. Jacob Toppin is also listed as probable now for Kentucky.

Kansas ranks 58th in the country in average possession length. The Jayhawks have multiple very good scoring options. 

Kentucky has struggled from 3 at times, but they are good when they get the ball inside. Kansas doesn't have the elite shot blockers that they have had in other recent seasons.

Both teams like to get out in transition and the weakness of these two defenses has been their transition defense.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers haven't scored more than 62 points in a game against a Division One opponent all year. Eastern Illinois hasn't scored more than 58 points in any of their last 11 games. This is a dreadful offensive team that plays at the slowest pace of any team in the OVC.

Tennessee State isn't pushing the pace to the degree they were last season. The Tigers have seen three of their last seven games finish with 126 points or less. They have scored 65 points or less in five of their last seven games.

This should be a sloppy game with neither team being efficient on the offensive end. Eastern Illinois ranks 357th in offensive efficiency in the country. Tennessee State is 273rd.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky Conference is known for its offense. There are very few teams who are actually good on the defensive. That's shown by the fact that 55.0% of Big Sky Conference games have gone over the total in the last 15 years. 

Tighten that angle up to totals of 145 or less in the Big Sky and there have been 57.1% of games in the last 15 years that have gone over the total.

Idaho State and Sacramento State are both bad on offense and that is why this total is so low. On the other hand, both of these teams are bad on defense as well.

Idaho State and Sacramento State both rank in the bottom 75 in the country in defending without fouling. There are likely to be a lot of trips to the free throw line in this game. Idaho State is a bottom 35 defense in the entire country by defensive efficiency.

Idaho State only has had two of their nine Big Sky games finish with less than 132 total points. Sacramento State only has two Big Sky games that finished under this total as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cal State Fullerton Titans toyed with playing at a slower tempo in the non-conference portion of their schedule. They have sped back up to a quicker tempo again in Big West play. They rank number one in offensive efficiency in the Big West. They are second in tempo.

UC Davis plays at a slightly above average tempo. The Aggies ranked in the bottom 30 teams in the country in fouls committed per possession last year, and they rank even lower this year. CS Fullerton has been a team that attacks the rim hard for many years. Expect a lot of trips to the line for the Titans. Fullerton shoots 75.2% from the free throw line.

UC Davis excels on catch and shoot 3 pointers, and Fullerton ranks in the bottom 100 teams in the country defending that. The Aggies should get their share of open looks in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles have played eight Big Sky Conference games this year. They have scores 78 points or more in six of those games, and they have scored 75 points or more in all but one of those games. Eastern Washington is the second fastest paced team in the league and their transition offense should be tough for Montana State to slow down here.

Montana State is a great three point shooting team who has been great from long range at home in recent seasons. The Bobcats will get their chances here.

Both teams are top 40 in the country in free throw attempts and both teams are prone to a lot of fouling.

The Big Sky Conference is known for its offense. There are very few teams who are actually good on the defensive. That's shown by the fact that 55.0% of Big Sky Conference games have gone over the total in the last 15 years. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* LSU Tigers coach Will Wade said Xavier Pinson is doubtful for this game. Darius Days is considered a gametime decision. These guys are 2 of the top 3 scorers on the game. Pinson is also great at getting quick steals and getting out in transition. LSU really misses him. Days is a great offensive rebounder and he would be missed as well.

Texas A&M ranks 32nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Buzz Williams' team does a good job making the opponent work for their shot. Texas A&M is second in steals percentage in the country and LSU turns the ball over a lot, especially without Pinson.

LSU ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Tigers turnaround on defense this year has been nothing short of amazing. Their length and athleticism is really bothering opposing offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seton Hall Pirates have been a mess without Bryce Aiken. Aiken is questionable for this game, but since he wasn't cleared from the concussion protocol on Monday night against St. John's and the team doesn't play until next Tuesday again, one beat writer said he might be leaning toward doubtful to play here.

Seton Hall put up just 66 and 63 points against a mediocre St. John's defense in their last two games without Aiken. Aiken would rank in the top ten in the country in offensive rating per KenPom if he had just a little higher possession usage. Aiken at less than 100 percent slows the team down a lot, and him being out of the lineup hurts them badly.

Marquette won 73-72 when these two played recently and that was with the teams at full strength. Shot Quality says that final score should have been just 67-66. The Golden Eagles are second in the Big East in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Despite the quick pace, both teams are significantly better on defense than offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes stand out in the Mid American Conference as a rare team that is clearly better on the defensive end than the offensive end of the floor.

Kent State is allowing less than 0.95 points per possession in the MAC. The Golden Flashes have held their opponent to 65 points or less in six of their last seven. That's some terrific defense in this conference that usually has a lot of high scoring contests. Kent State just held Akron to 55 points and Buffalo (fast paced team) to just 64 points in the last week. 

Western Michigan ranks 10th in the MAC in overall tempo. Kent State ranks 11th in tempo. These are two teams who want to play in the halfcourt rather than in transition.

Kent State has played six of their last seven games under this total. Western Michigan turns the ball over a lot and very rarely gets to the free throw line.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles rank 44th in the nation in tempo. Eastern Washington ranks 70th in the nation in halfcourt offensive efficiency as well. Idaho State ranks 347th in the nation in defensive halfcourt efficiency.

Eastern Washington is the favorite in this game. They should be able to dictate the tempo against an Idaho State team that has ran with Weber State and Southern Utah in recent games.

Eastern Washington hasn't scored less than 75 points in their last five games. They have scored 83 and 96 against two of the weakest defenses in the Big Sky Conference.

Idaho State has allowed 95 points and 86 points in their last two games.

The Big Sky has been a great over conference. There is very little defense played in this conference. Totals of 145 or lower have gone 57% to the over in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs square off in Kansas City on Sunday night. This is the time of the year that you always want to be careful about the weather, but the current forecast for this one is for a temperature in the 30's with winds of about 10 mph. 

The Buffalo Bills offense sputtered at times throughout the regular season, but they did have a bunch of success against the Chiefs earlier in the year. Josh Allen is playing well of late, and the Bills have too many weapons on the outside for the Chiefs secondary to contain. 

Kansas City's offense has improved late in the season. It's still very hard to stop Mahomes with Kelce, Hill, and the rest of their weapons. 

The last couple meetings between these two have gone over the total. I think we see a back and forth affair here. There is absolutely a chance for overtime in this one as well. 

The defenses are improved, but the offenses are still better.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have played at the second slowest tempo in the NBA in the last 10 games. Boston has seen 13 of its last 17 games stay under this total in regulation. They have played some low scoring finals even in overtime. Boston is playing strong defense. They rank 7th in defensive efficiency in the last ten games.

Boston lists Marcus Smart as probable for this game. Smart is a great defender and often when coming back from a long break players can struggle offensively. 

Washington is the higher scoring team of these two, but the Wizards have had several contests with very high scoring and fast paced teams of late. That has skewed this total higher. Here, they are up against a different opponent who prefers the halfcourt and lower scoring game.

Sunday early game unders have been great especially in conference games in the last decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles played Xavier earlier this year and the game was played to a blazing fast pace of 76 possessions. That game finished at 151 points total despite poor shooting from the floor. Shot Quality believes with average shooting from both teams it would have been about 160 points total.

Xavier ranks 35th quickest in average possession length in the country. Marquette is 7th quickest. 

Both of these teams have faced a lot of very tough defenses on their schedule and that has held their offensive numbers down a bit. Both teams are capable of putting up a big number at any time.

These two teams do a good job taking care of the basketball. They also are above average from the line.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cal State Northridge is playing a completely different style of basketball this year with Trent Johnson at the helm instead of Mark Gottfried. Johnson has the team slowing things down in a big way. CS Northridge has been forced into some faster paced games on the road, but when playing at home they have controlled the tempo and stayed very slow paced.

UC Riverside has arguably the best defense in the Big West. UC Riverside also likes to play at an extremely slow tempo. UC Riverside ranks 338th in average possession length, so they are bottom 20 in tempo.

The defenses here have big advantages against the offenses. UC Riverside does a great job getting defensive boards and not fouling. UC Riverside struggles with outside shooting. CS Northridge takes far too many bad midrange jumpers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a really low total, but it is very low for good reason. North Texas is an elite defensive team this year. North Texas also happens to be the second slowest team in terms of tempo in the country (only Virginia is slower). 

North Texas has seen 7 of its last 13 games stay under this extremely low posted total. The Mean Green have been shutting down opposing offenses. Old Dominion relies far too heavily on offensive rebounds and mid range jumpers. North Texas is a good defensive rebounding team and ODU should end up with a lot of poor quality shots here.

North Texas should have a lead and they have shown the ability to completely take the air out of the ball late with a lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Betting the over with low totals in the Big Sky Conference has been the way to go. In the last 15 years, betting a total of 145 or lower to go over the total in Big Sky Conference games has yielded a 57% win rate for the over.

Idaho State is a bad team who prefers to play slowly, but they are likely to be down by margin early in this one. They should then be forced to speed up as they were twice by Weber State. Both of their games against Weber State went over the total.

Southern Utah has one of the best offenses in the Big Sky. Southern Utah has been really efficient in the paint, and Idaho State has no shot blockers and the Bengals defense has been hapless this year. 

Southern Utah has scored 81 points or more in 4 of their 5 games in the Big Sky so far this season. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Longwood Lancers take on the Presbyterian Blue Hose in this one. Not only is this a game with two epic team nicknames, I also believe there is some good value on the under in this contest.

Longwood and Presbyterian met twice last year. The final scores were 49-45 and 66-54. The meeting before that in 2020 was 58-55. These two teams have a history of extremely low scoring games against each other. 

Both of these teams have problems with turnovers. There should be a lot of possessions where these teams don't even get a shot. 

Presbyterian has played 17 games against D1 opponents this year. Nine of those games have had 126 points or less in regulation. 

Look for another sloppy game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers rank 279th in the nation in tempo. Minnesota tries to slow the game down as much as possible. They have had to speed up in some recent games because they have been way behind, but that isn't likely to be the case here with them favored by 1.5. 

Rutgers has been playing lockdown defense of late. They held an amazing Iowa offense to 46 points in their last game. They held Maryland to 59 points in the game before that. Rutgers has faced the 64th toughest slate of offenses, and they still have great defensive numbers on the year.

The Rutgers offense really struggles with scoring droughts. Rutgers ranks 251st in effective field goal percentage offense.

Both of these teams are good on the defensive boards, and they both do a good job defending without fouling.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints like to slow the pace of the game down. Siena ranks 291st in average possession length. Manhattan is slightly faster than an average team at 141st in average possession length. 

Siena was best in the MAAC at defending without fouling last year. They were second best two years ago. Why is that important? Manhattan is extremely reliant on getting to the free throw line. 

Manhattan has been without star Ant Nelson for the last 3 games and he is questionable in this one. Nelson has been dealing with a major non covid illness. Nelson has been the team's leading scorer in the last two meetings with Siena.

The first meeting between these two was 64-64 at the end of regulation. The shooting numbers in that game were fairly average, but the pace was slow.

Both teams turn it over a lot, and there should be plenty of wasted possessions here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I like Wes Miller's defense. Miller did a great job at UNC Greensboro for years, and now he is doing a good job with this Cincinnati Bearcats defense. Cincinnati will use a full court zone press quite a bit, but it is actually used to slow the pace down. Cincinnati has solid shot blockers, and it is very difficult to get into the lane against them. They are holding opponents to just 40.6% on 2 point shots (2nd best in the nation). 

Tulsa is a defensive minded team under Frank Haith as well. Tulsa likes to mix up their defenses and run some zone and trapping defenses to throw the opposing offenses off guard. Tulsa doesn't get to the line much at all. They are reliant on too many bad mid range jumpers.

Cincinnati's defense has showed they are capable against good offenses of late. They held Wichita State to 57 points. They also held SMU to just 60 points. 

Look for a defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Summit League has a lot of teams who are very bad on defense. These are two of the good defenses up against each other. North Dakota State has been first in the Summit in defensive efficiency two years and second last year. They should be a top three defense in this league by the end of the year again. UMKC was first in defensive efficiency last year, and they are second so far this season.

UMKC and North Dakota State also prefer to play at a slower pace than most of the teams in this league. We should see a slow paced game between these two once again. 

UMKC ranks 315th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Kangaroos have faced the 301st toughest slate of defenses (very easy) so it hasn't been the strength of the defenses holding them back. They have faced the 120th toughest offenses, and they are still a defense oriented team.

Look for both teams to struggle to find open shots in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers have been an under machine this year. They clearly will have some overs at some point in the season, but I have to get back on the under in this one. If it isn't broke...

Eastern Illinois has seen a whopping 11 of their last 12 Division I contests go under this posted total. This is a team that is consistently finishing with 55 points or less. Against the best teams they have played, they have routinely been in the 40's. They just scored 46 against Murray State earlier this week. A similar number here wouldn't surprise me at all.

Murray State put up 72 points earlier this week against Eastern Illinois. The Racers shot above 50% from the floor in that game. Murray State has shown they are willing to slow the game down with a big lead, which is important since they are massive favorites once again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats absolutely shot the lights out in their last game. They beat Butler 82-42 in a game played to a pace of only 59 possessions. Villanova was 12/19 from 3 point range, and they averaged 1.41 points per possession. Villanova is a very good offense, but that kind of offensive efficiency is almost never seen. 

Marquette ranks in the top 45 in the country in nearly all the major defensive categories. Shaka Smart's team will compete on the defensive end. Marquette excels in halfcourt defense, and Villanova is nearly always in the halfcourt. The Wildcats run a lot of pick and roll ball screen action, and Marquette is really good at defending that.

Villanova is 355th in tempo in the country out of 358 teams. This is a really high total for a game involving a team playing this slow of a pace.

Marquette is playing quickly, but they are about two possessions per game slower in Big East league play than in non-conference games. The Eagles are inconsistent offensively as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs have played 9 of their last 12 games under this posted total. Fresno State is elite defensively. The Bulldogs rank 42nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Orlando Robinson is both a good shot blocker and a good defensive rebounder down low. 

Utah State is 97th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They rank 44th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. The Aggies have had bad "free throw defense" so far this year, but that is just getting unlucky. 

RJ Eytle-Rock is doubtful for this game due to COVID protocols. Brock Miller is expected to miss this game for Utah State due to back problems. These are two of their top four or five offensive options.

Fresno State should keep the pace down, and I think both defenses have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Weber State Wildcats are playing at the fastest pace of any team in the Big Sky Conference. Weber State is shooting the ball only 15 seconds into the shot clock on average. 

Weber State has scored 80 points or more in three of their five Big Sky contests so far this season. 

Idaho State prefers to play slowly, but they should be playing from behind here, which would make them speed things up a bit more. The total here is set extremely low for a Big Sky game. This is a conference where over bettors have cleaned up in the past decade. There is very little defense played in the Big Sky.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers have played 12 Division One games since November 12th. Zero of those games have gone over this posted total. 

Of course Eastern Illinois is going to have a game go over the total at some point moving forward, but I have to bet the under in this one. The Panthers offense is one of the worst in the entire country.

Murray State ranks 68th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Racers have played the 82nd toughest schedule of offenses this year. Eastern Illinois is the worst offense they have played all year. 

Eastern Illinois has been held to 55 points or less in 8 straight Division One contests. They have been held to 50 points or less five times this year. 

Eastern Illinois still slows the pace down to an extreme. The Panthers are 320th in average possession length. Murray State plays at a slightly slower tempo than an average team in the country.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics have been a very consistently slow paced team with low scoring games of late. Boston ranks second to last in the NBA in pace of play in their last 11 games. In those 11 games, Boston only has had three games go over this total in regulation (one stayed under even with an OT). 

The Celtics rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 11 games. Boston ranks 19th in offensive efficiency in that period. 

New Orleans is 15th in the league in tempo in that period. They are middle of the pack in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency.

These MLK Day early games have stayed under the total at a high rate in the past decade. The earliest start time games in general have been good under wagers.

I think the tempo is slow here and barring very high offensive efficiency, I think this one stays under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys rank 5th in the NFL in yards per play. They rank 6th in the NFL in DVOA on offense. Dak Prescott has been up and down this year, but he has a stellar group of receivers and two solid running backs. The 49ers secondary is arguably the worst secondary of any team in the NFL playoffs this year. Dallas should be able to take advantage of this unit.

San Francisco's offense has been good with Jimmy G under center this year. I think he is an underrated quarterback who does a good job spreading the ball around to his weapons. George Kittle is one of the most dangerous pass catchers in the NFL. The Cowboys are likely to have a hard time with him. 

Both of these defenses rank in the bottom half of the NFL in big plays allowed. 

This game is played in a dome and playoff games in a dome have been great for over bettors. How good? The last 43 games in a dome in the NFL postseason- 29 of them have gone over and only 14 have stayed under.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Dolphins rank 32nd in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense this year. Jordan Mincy said this team would be about their defense this year, and that has absolutely been true thus far.

Jacksonville ranks 348th in the nation in average possession length. The Dolphins want to win low scoring battles and control the tempo.

North Florida puts up a bunch of long range jumpers, but Jacksonville ranks 15th in 3 point defense (27.4%) so far this year. 

Both North Florida and Jacksonville turn the ball over about as much as anyone. There should be a bunch of wasted possessions in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars have seen 3 of their 5 Pac 12 games stay under this low total. Cal has seen 4 of their 6 league games stay under this total.

Mark Fox is known as a defensive minded coach. His team at Cal last year wasn't nearly as good on defense as normal. They are much improved defensively this year. They are doing a great job holding opponents to one shot. Cal ranks 7th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Washington State is a very good defensive team. The Cougars rank 29th in the country in defensive efficiency this year. They force a lot of steals and block a lot of shots. They can commit too many fouls at times, but Cal ranks in the bottom 50 in the country in fouls drawn this season.

Look for a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are a tremendous defensive team. Coach Joe Gallo has them play a unique zone full court press which actually slows the pace of the game down a lot. Merrimack does not give up open looks from 3 because they do a good job extending out the zone.

St. Francis struggles to defend the paint, but Merrimack lacks the guards to get in the paint consistently. They also lack the big men to be able to score in the post. Merrimack ranks first in the league in offensive efficiency so far this year, but Shot Quality numbers show Merrimack is shooting far above what they should be so of late. Regression is coming for the Merrimack offense.

The pace will be slow here and I think this stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans have played 15 games against Division I opponents this year. Of those 15 games, 11 have stayed under this total in regulation. Their highest scoring game in their last ten games is 143 total points and that was against The Citadel. 

UNC Greensboro is 354th in tempo in the country. The Spartans are going to use the clock regardless of who they are playing against.

Mercer ranks 297th in average possession length, so they like to play slowly as well. The Bears are much worse on defense, but UNC Greensboro is weak offensively and they are without one of their leading scorers for this game.

UNC Greensboro has been great at defending the 3 point jumper this year, and Mercer relies heavily on the long range jumper. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* While I don't expect this to be a high scoring game, this total is set extremely low. I have to play the over at this level.

Campbell is one of the better offenses in the Big South. The Fighting Camels have a lot of experience, and this is a team that was very good in the league on offense a year ago. 

Radford has a new coach this year and they are getting out in transition quite a bit more this year. Radford could get some easy opportunities in transition, since Campbell ranks among the 50 worst transition defenses in the country.

All three of the meetings between these two went over this number last year, and Radford is clearly playing faster this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats rank first in the country in average possession length. Arizona has gotten to 80 points in all but one game this year. I think they'll put up a big number here against a Colorado defense that is mediocre. 

Colorado has played two very fast paced games in a row against Washington State and Washington. Arizona will push the tempo to the max here. The Buffaloes are good at getting to the free throw line, and that should allow them to put up some points here. They rank 14th in the nation in FTA/FGA and shoot better than 72% from the stripe.

Both teams are excellent on the offensive glass, so I expect some second chance opportunities that will be key here as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers have played 12 games against a Division I opponent this year. The first one went over this total. The last 11 games have stayed under this total. 

Eastern Illinois ranks 318th in the nation in average length of possession. The Panthers have scored 55 points or less in their last seven games against Division I opponents. This is a miserable offense that settles for a lot of contested mid range jumpers- the worst shot in basketball. 

SIU Edwardsville has two main problems on defense. They allow too many second chance opportunities and they put teams on the free throw line too much. Those often go hand in hand. In this case, Eastern Illinois ranks in the bottom 20 teams in the country in offensive rebounding and in the bottom 75 teams in the country in free throw rate. 

Both of these teams are turnover machines on offense, so I expect a bunch of wasted possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen are elite at controlling the pace of the game. Ed DeChellis coached teams are going to slow things down at all costs. Navy ranks 341st in average possession length in the country. They are using 20.2 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average in their league games so far this year. 

Colgate has played a lot of faster paced teams of late. They played St. John's, Monmouth, Lehigh, and Army. This is a big style change for the Raiders. This total is a bit inflated for that reason.

Navy has played 15 games this year and only two of them have gone above this posted total. The Midshipmen are favored here, and they should be able to keep this game played in the halfcourt.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles are a much more deliberate team this year under new coach Earl Grant. They rank 317th in the nation in overall tempo. He is a defensive-minded coach as well. Boston College ranks 11th in defensive rebounding percentage. Opponents aren't getting second chances against them much at all.

Georgia Tech played a bit quicker earlier this year, but the Yellow Jackets have grinded the tempo to a halt in recent games. Georgia Tech has played six straight games that have finished regulation with 131 points or less on the board. The Yellow Jackets have missed Rodney Howard in recent games, and this offense has been really inefficient.

Both of these teams would prefer to get the ball inside, but the strength of the two defenses is their defense inside the paint. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri State Bears have slowed the tempo down again this year under Dana Ford. They rank 290th in average possession length. Missouri State does have a good offense. Their numbers are a bit inflated though, because they have played only the 311th (out of 358 teams) toughest slate of defenses in the country. 

Southern Illinois is an above average defense. The Salukis also rank 351st in the nation in tempo, so they are dragging these games into grind it out affairs. They'll be happy to play in the halfcourt with Missouri State here. Southern Illinois isn't bad offensively, but I think they are too reliant on Marcus Damask and Lance Jones to be consistently good on offense in a pretty good Missouri Valley Conference. 

A slow pace and two teams who don't get to the line very often.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions have been well coached by Micah Shrewsberry this year. This Nittany Lions team has faced the 8th toughest slate of offenses according to KenPom this season. They have fared pretty well defensively. Only Michigan State really burned this defense pretty badly. 

Penn State is playing at a very slow pace. They rank 353rd out of 358 teams in the country in pace of play. The Nittany Lions also rank 12th in FTA/FGA on defense, so they aren't fouling. They also rank top 50 in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Rutgers has been inconsistent on offense. They have looked good lately, but that was against Maine, Central Connecticut State, Michigan (who hasn't been good), and then Nebraska. This is a tough test going to Happy Valley.

The Rutgers defense is trustworthy group. They don't give up easy looks often at all, and Penn State lacks stars who can get their own points consistently. Jalen Pickett still doesn't look all that comfortable. Lundy is a good player but he is streaky as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* UIC is coached by a defensive-minded head coach in Luke Yaklich. This UIC team has faced a lot of tough offenses this year. Teams like Loyola Chicago, Dayton, Oakland, and Wright State have pulled down their defensive numbers. Now, they are set to play the worst offense in the country. 

UIC has seen 5 of their first 11 games against Division I teams finish at 121 points or lower. The Flames are reliant on the catch and shoot three pointer, and IUPUI actually ranks a pretty solid 104th in the country in defense on the catch and shoot 3. 

IUPUI has played 12 games this year. Ten of those twelve games have stayed under this total. The Jaguars rank in the 11th percentile in shot selection on the year, and they are dead last in offensive efficiency. They are also dead last in turnover percentage on offense. 

Expect an ugly game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles rank 36th in FTA/FGA in the country. They make a living at the free throw line. Idaho ranks 17th in FTA/FGA and they have been getting to the line and knocking down those FT's (76% at the line). E Washington is a solid 74.4% from the line on the year.

The Big Sky Conference has been great to over bettors through the years. There just isn't much defense played in this league. Idaho ranks 350th in the nation in defensive efficiency. A team like Eastern Washington that moves the ball around well and has multiple scoring options should put up a lot of points on Idaho.

The Vandals are improved offensively this year thanks in large part to Mikey Dixon transferring in from Grand Canyon. Dixon is 64/70 from the free throw line this year, and he is knocking down 43.6% of his 3 point attempts.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Iowa State is playing very hard for TJ Otzelberger. The Cyclones are excellent on the defensive end. Iowa State ranks 4th in defensive efficiency in the country. They have held 10 of their first 14 opponents to 60 points or less. That includes Iowa, Memphis, Creighton, and Texas Tech.

Oklahoma is a good defensive team under Porter Moser. Moser's teams at Loyola Chicago always excelled at defense and slowing the game down. The Sooners rank 31st in the nation in defensive efficiency this year. I think they can slow down this Iowa State offense which relies too much on Brockington and Hunter.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs like to push the pace under Bucky McMillan. Ques Glover gives them a really good playmaker on the offensive end. Samford ranks 48th in the country in overall tempo. 

Western Carolina ranks 87th in average length of possession, so the Catamounts are playing quickly too. They also rank an ugly 340th in defensive efficiency. They don't force turnovers and they give up too many easy looks in the paint. 

Last year when these two teams met it was a 82-78 final score. I see a very similar contest coming in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans rank 354th in average possession length out of 358 teams in the country. Mike Jones' teams were notorious for their extremely slow tempo, and UNC Greensboro is doing the same thing in his first year here.

VMI is all about taking the long range jumper. If they are hot from three this one could certainly go over, but UNC Greensboro has had good defense on catch and shoot 3's like VMI takes a bunch of. VMI has slowed their pace down a bit this year and their defense is a bit better as well.

Both teams rank in the top 65 in the country at defending without fouling so we shouldn't see too many free throws attempted here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors are coming off an insanely good shooting performance. Keep in mind that Merrimack shot 33 and 32% from 3 point range in the last two years. They made 17 out of 26 three pointers in their last contest. This is still a below average offense for Merrimack. I expect regression to the mean.

Central Connecticut State has slowed their tempo down quite a bit under their new coach. They are a bad team, but they are slightly better on defense this year. Merrimack is an excellent defensive team. Merrimack plays a zone defense that extends full court to slow the opponent down. Central Connecticut State should have a really hard time against this zone. The one weakness of the Merrimack defense is they allow a lot of offensive rebounds. C Conn St ranks among the 50 worst teams in the country in offensive rebounding.

Look back at Merrimack's games from earlier this year and you'll see a bunch of very low scoring games. The total is inflated some here because of their recent shooting numbers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats have a new coach in Wes Miller this year. Miller has been a great defensive mind at UNC Greensboro for many years. He has Cincinnati playing excellent defense this year. Cincinnati is 5th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Cincinnati held Illinois to 51 points in a great defensive showing earlier this year.

SMU is a good offensive team. The Mustangs have played a weak slate of defenses though, and I think Wes Miller's zone press could slow the pace down and give SMU some trouble here. 

Cincinnati's offense is poor. Their spacing isn't good and they take too many mid range low quality jumpers. 

I expect a hard fought AAC battle here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both Binghamton and Albany have had major problems with COVID 19 in recent weeks. Both of their coaches said they will be down multiple players for this game. 

Albany is an excellent defensive team. The Great Danes have constantly played low scoring contests. In fact, their last six games have finished at 124 points or less. The Great Danes are good at preventing easy baskets near the rim, and Binghamton often tries for those easy looks at the rim.

Binghamton ranks 314th in the nation in tempo. They struggle with wasted possessions due to turnovers on offense as well. They sometimes struggle on the defensive glass, but Albany is a weak offensive rebounding team.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Long Island University Sharks do play at a quick tempo. They have historically played quicker than they are this year though. LIU ranks 61st in tempo compared to a year ago when they were 9th. This is a team that relies heavily on the catch and shoot 3 point jumper. The biggest strength of this Mt. St. Mary's defense is against that offensive attack. In fact, they are 39th in the country according to Shot Quality in those situations. 

Mt. St. Mary's plays at a very slow pace. They have been able to control the pace of the game the last four times they have matched up against LIU. Two years ago both of their matchups finished at 130 points in regulation. Last year, the two games finished at 126 and 110 points. 

Mt. St. Mary's and LIU are both poor when it comes to efficiency on offense. LIU tries to score in transition, but they are bottom 50 in transition offensive efficiency. Mt. St. Mary's settles for too many midrange jumpers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats were blown out at Creighton a few weeks ago. Creighton won 79-59. Creighton shot 65% from 2 point range in that game. According to the website Shot Quality, based on the quality of shots they took the Creighton Blue Jays should have scored only 60 points in that game. Creighton made a bunch of tough jump shots in that game.

Villanova ranks 346th in tempo in college basketball this year. The Wildcats have seen 5 of their last 8 games finish with a total of 127 points or less. Their extremely slow tempo has led to some very low scoring games.

Creighton put up just 58 points in regulation against a very fast paced Marquette team in their last game. The Blue Jays don't have the great long range shooters that they have had in recent seasons. 

Look for Villanova to get control of this game and slow the pace down to a crawl. I think they get revenge and this game stays under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Rockets defense has been the worst in the NBA in the last ten games, and it isn't very close. Houston is giving up a whopping 1.238 points per possession. No one else is giving up more than 1.208. 

Houston is playing fast as well. The Rockets are 10th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. In their last five games, Houston ranks third in the league in tempo. Their offense has been middle of the pack, which is much improved from earlier this season.

Washington ranks 25th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games played. The Wizards have allowed 117 points or more in seven of their last nine games. 

Houston has allowed 120 points or more in seven of their last eight games. The other game they allowed 118 points. 

Look for a high scoring fast paced game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Butler Bulldogs are elite at controlling the tempo of a game. Butler ranks 346th in the nation in overall tempo. They haven't played a game all season with a pace of higher than 69 possessions. Their defense is also quite a bit better than it was a year ago. They rebound well on defense and don't foul very often.

Seton Hall is playing fast. The Pirates are just a decent offensive team, but they are tremendous on the defensive end. Seton Hall ranks 15th in effective field goal percentage defense. 

These two teams played twice last year. The final scores were 68-60 and 61-52. The Bulldogs were able to slow the pace down in both of those games.

Butler takes a bunch of 3 pointers, but Seton Hall ranks 9th in the country in 3 point percentage defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles started the season out playing extremely fast. They have gradually slowed their pace down in recent weeks. Stan Heath is their new head coach. Over the course of his career his teams have generally played slower than the average team. It appears this team is backing off on the pace a bit of late. 

Western Michigan ranks 342nd in average possession length out of 358 teams in the country. The Broncos absolutely want to slow the game down. Western Michigan isn't good on defense, but their defensive stats are a bit skewed this year. They have faced some amazing offenses. They have had to face Iowa, Michigan State, Toledo, and Notre Dame. 

Eastern Michigan ranks in the 2nd percentile in the country according to Shot Quality when it comes to shot selection. Western Michigan ranks in the 16th percentile in the country in shot selection. These two teams settle for really poor shots. Both also rank as worse than the normal team when it comes to taking care of the basketball. There should be plenty of wasted possessions.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals have found a franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow. As long as the offensive line protects him to some degree here, I do think Burrow and this group of elite pass catchers can pick up some chunk plays on the Chiefs secondary. 

Kansas City's defense has clearly played better in recent weeks, but the Chiefs defense has faced some terrible offenses. They also have caught opponents when they are shorthanded. The Bengals offense is playing very well right now and they are quite healthy.

Cincinnati's defense is missing two key starters at linebacker. The Bengals defense didn't look very good against the Ravens last week with Josh Johnson at the helm. Patrick Mahomes gets back Kelce and the Chiefs offense has improved a lot in recent weeks. I don't trust the Bengals defense to be able to slow them down.

If either of these teams gets down much and starts taking a lot of shots and playing quickly, it will help the over in a big way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Dolphins defense has been tremendous of late. Granted, they haven't played a tough schedule of offenses. Still, they have dominated the offenses put in front of them. 

In its current form, the Tennessee Titans offense isn't very good. Ryan Tannehill isn't playing with much confidence, and Derrick Henry is badly missed. The Titans are dead last in the NFL in 20 plus yard plays. They aren't explosive at all right now.

Miami's offense isn't any good either. Tua is inconsistent and relies on Waddle far too much. The Titans defense ranks top ten in the NFL across the board in the past five games. 

The weather here could play a role too. Winds and possible rain mixed with snow is expected to come in during this game. During the middle of the game the sustained winds are expected at about 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That will just increase as the game gets into the fourth quarter.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are a completely different team this year under Trent Johnson. Johnson's coaching style is a total flip from what this team has been under Mark Gottfried. No longer is this team running and gunning and not worrying about defense. They are now one of the slowest paced teams in the country, and defense is their primary focus. 

CS Northridge is atrocious on the offensive end. The Matadors have played 9 games against Division I teams and they have scored 54 points or less in six of those nine contests. 

UC San Diego is a better offensive team, but they have relied pretty heavily on both getting to the line and shooting it from long range. CS Northridge doesn't foul very much on average, and the team has been best at defending long range jumpers.

CS Northridge has a major weakness on the defensive glass, but UC San Diego has ranked in the bottom 15 in the country (out of 358) in offensive rebounding percentage last year and this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma Sooners have a new coach this year and Porter Moser is well known for his defensive minded teams. Oklahoma has held three of its last four opponents to 54 points or less in regulation.

Oklahoma started the season out playing fast paced basketball, but they have slowed their tempo down of late. I would expect some further slowing of their average pace through the season.

Kansas State is always a defensive-minded team under Bruce Weber. Weber's teams often lack imagination in their offensive sets, but they are always working hard and making the opposition take tough shots.

Kansas State has seen 4 of their last 6 games finish at 127 points or lower.

Both teams are excellent on the defensive boards, and neither team gets to the line all that much either.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats defense is legitimately elite. Cincinnati has 4 or 5 NFL plays on their defense. The secondary is arguably the best in the country. John Metchie being out hurts Alabama's passing attack a lot. Bryce Young is great and he'll have some success here regardless, but they will have to rely very heavily on Jameson Williams. Expect Cincinnati's secondary to have more success slowing down Alabama than did Georgia.

The Cincinnati Bearcats have been run heavy of late. They'd like to do the same in this game, but I think it will be tough. Alabama can be beaten through the air sometimes, but their run defense is tremendous. The Crimson Tide are allowing only 2.51 ypc and PFF ranks them as the #1 run defense in the country. 

Is Desmond Ridder good enough to air it out and consistently burn Alabama? I don't think it is terribly likely. The guys who have burned this Alabama defense in the past (Watson and Joe Burrow for example) are several levels better than Ridder.

Cincinnati has to want a low scoring battle here and they should play at a slow tempo. Alabama has played very slowly with a lead all year and they are a big favorite.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers will be without star quarterback Kenny Pickett here. Pickett opted out of this game and will get ready for the NFL Draft. The Panthers will also be without offensive coordinator Mark Whipple who resigned to go to Nebraska to be the OC. Whipple did a great job with this offense and I consider this a big loss. Pickett is clearly a massive loss and the drop in production to Nick Patti is massive at the quarterback spot.
Kenneth Walker III will sit out this game for Michigan State. The Spartans don't really have another game breaking player on their offense, and this is a huge hit. Thorne has been decent in the passing game, but Pitt has an elite defensive line who will pressure him early and often here. Michigan State would prefer to run, but Pitt has a top 10 run defense in the country and Michigan State is without their star running back.
Both of these offenses had actually been much weaker in their last couple games anyways, and now they are without their stars.
Take the under. 

*Note- this has moved down a bit since I selected it. I would still play this for a 4 star rating down to 55.5 and a 3 star rating down to 54. Thank you and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The La Salle Explorers and Fordham Rams have both been on an extended absence due to COVID 19 issues. La Salle hasn't played since December 18. Fordham hasn't played since all the way back to December 12. Last year we saw these absences lead to some sloppy low scoring games on average in their first game back.

Fordham is accustomed to a bunch of sloppy and low scoring contests. Fordham is very good at defending beyond the arc, and La Salle likes to shoot a lot of long range jumpers. La Salle will then go after offensive rebounds hard, but Fordham is a very good defensive rebounding team as well. The Rams offense is a bit better this year, but they are still subpar and can go through scoring droughts.

La Salle's offensive numbers aren't very good so far this year, and they have faced the second easiest slate of defenses (357th out of 358th) in the country. Fordham has faced the 356th toughest slate of defenses in the country. Essentially, these two teams have put up poor numbers against terrible defenses. 

Both of these two teams are better on defense than they are on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles rank 307th in average possession length, so they prefer a very slow pace on the offensive end. Eastern Illinois ranks 310th in average possession length as well. The tempo here should be very slow throughout.

Eastern Illinois hasn't scored more than 62 points in a game against a Division I opponent all season. Eastern Illinois has been held to 56 points or less in 9 of their 11 games against Division I opponents. They have been held to 45 points or less in 4 of those games. This is a really bad offense.

Morehead State has an elite shot blocker in Broome and he should keep Eastern Illinois out of the paint here.

Morehead State and Eastern Illinois both turn the ball over a bunch on offense, and those wasted possessions are great for the under. Both these teams don't to the line much, and both defenses are great at defending without fouling. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers rank 130th in the country in tempo. No one in the country plays as slow as Minnesota. Minnesota is going to run the football and try to very slowly move the ball down the field. 

The Golden Gophers run on 69.5% of their offensive plays. This is a conservative offense. Minnesota is up against a West Virginia defense that is much better at stopping the run than the pass. The Mountaineers are a solid 48th in rushing play success rate allowed.

The Minnesota defense is 4th in the nation in total yards per game allowed. Minnesota ranks 18th in success rate allowed defensively. The Golden Gophers are solid on all levels on defense. They don't give up big plays either. They have only allowed 35 plays of 20 yards or more all year (3rd best in the country). 

West Virginia star running back Leddie Brown will not play in this game. This puts more pressure on a relatively weak offensive line and a quarterback in Jarrett Doege who has been subpar. 

A lot of running the football and very few big plays here. West Virginia is 93rd in pace as well, so a slow tempo from both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos have faced the second easiest slate of defenses so far this year. Their offense ranks 19th in YPP and that is with Teddy Bridgewater under center and against weak defenses. Now, they are left with Drew Lock and they are up against an Oakland defense that is quite a bit better than anyone expected they would be this season.

Oakland will likely be without Darren Waller here. The Raiders are much worse offensively without Waller, who is an elite tight end. Oakland could muster only 16 points against Cleveland last week without Waller. They only scored 15 against Washington without Waller. They scored only 9 points against KC without Waller. The Broncos defense is better than those defenses. I don't think Las Vegas will score many here.

Bridgewater to Lock is a big step down. Bridgewater has been an underrated quarterback for much of his NFL career. Lock is wildly inconsistent and he lacks good weapons on the outside as well.

A low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears turn to Nick Foles in this game. The Bears really don't have a good option at quarterback at all. Foles likes to throw a bunch of short passes and play it very safe. Allen Robinson is the Bears only good option at wide receiver and he is currently on the COVID list. He is doubtful to return before this game. The Bears will be without Jakeem Grant and left tackle Jason Peters as well.

Seattle has played well defensively of late. The Seahawks are second in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Bears are likely to have a conservative game plan here, and I don't think that will lead to much success for Chicago. 

The Bears defense has faced the toughest slate of opposing offenses so far this year. Seattle's offense isn't even close to what it was in the past. The Seahawks have been pretty reliant on the big play, but the Bears don't give up too many big plays.

Seattle's weather for Sunday looks very questionable. There is a 50% chance of snow during this game and winds of 14 mph with very cold temperatures are in the forecast. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Divisional unders in the NFL have been good bets especially in the late regular season games. These two teams know each other well and that often helps the defense. 

Jake Fromm is expected to get his first start for the Giants here. Fromm isn't likely to be anything more than a game manager here. He was fine at Georgia, but he was never asked to do too much with an elite offensive line and very good receivers. Kadarius Toney is a game time decision here, and if he does play he will be less than 100 percent. The Giants lack outside weapons. The offensive line is below average as well.

The Eagles run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. The Giants defense has actually been pretty good this year. Despite playing the 5th toughest slate of offenses, the Giants are 12th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

Seven of the Giants last eight games finished at 40 points or lower. 

Winds of 13 mph with gusts to 22 mph are in the forecast for this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Hawks are without 5 of their top 7 scorers in this game including star Trae Young. Atlanta has played two games without Young and in those two games they have played at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA during that span. Atlanta lacks go to guys on the offensive end now. They have played two games where they failed to score 100 points. Those contests totaled 202 and 194 points.

The New York Knicks rank as the second slowest paced team in the NBA in their last ten games. The Knicks aren't going to be running and gunning in this one. 

Christmas Day unders have been a great betting angle in the NBA in the past decade. Early games on Christmas Day staying under has been an even stronger angle. This is an extremely early tipoff.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder rank second last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Phoenix Suns rank second best in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Oklahoma City isn't likely to score very many points against Phoenix in this one.

The Thunder have slowed their pace down in recent weeks. Oklahoma City is likely to try to keep this pace slower than the league average.

The Suns are only giving up 0.992 points per possession which is excellent defensively in their last five games. 

The day before Christmas Eve has been a good under day in the NBA in the long term.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Florida Bulls have a way of making every game extremely ugly. That isn't meant as a bad thing necessarily. USF has won a lot of close games with their defensive style and very slow pace. They aren't likely to win this game, but their defense should at least slow BYU down.

BYU has faced the 15th best slate of offenses in the country this year. They still have impressive defensive numbers. They don't allow second chance opportunities much at all, which is crucial against a team like USF that relies heavily on offensive rebounds.

USF held Auburn to 58 points in an ugly game earlier this year. I don't think they'll hold BYU to that kind of total, but they should make things uncomfortable at least at times. The USF offense has been a mess all year, and I don't see them stringing together many good possessions.

A neutral court is a good thing for the under too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars defense has been excellent this year. Kyle Smith is a quality coach and he has this team really defending well. 

Washington State ranks 42nd in defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage defense. The Cougars have improved a lot in transition defense, and they are a very good defensive rebounding team since Smith has taken over.

Boise State is a top 20 defensive rebounding team. The Broncos are good at both forcing turnovers and defending the paint, which is a really nice combination for a defense. 

These offenses are capable, but both go through scoring droughts and can be inefficient for long stretches. 

This is played at a neutral site and these games are a plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I don't like taking overs that are this high, but I think this one is a good value. South Dakota State's offense is an absolute juggernaut, especially on their home floor. 

South Dakota State has scored 91 points or more five times already this year. The Jackrabbits have the perfect mix of inside scoring presence and long range shooters from the perimeter. 

Oral Roberts is a bad defensive team. The Golden Eagles are 249th in defensive efficiency in the country.

On the other side, Max Abmas and this Oral Roberts offense are excellent. Oral Roberts excels from 3 point range, and South Dakota State has struggled in a big way defending beyond the arc the last couple seasons.

Last year these two teams met twice. The final scores were 103-86 and 95-80. It was no fluke. These two offenses are excellent.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers have been excellent at pushing the pace the last couple seasons. Georgia State won a 4 overtime game against Georgia Tech last year. That game was high scoring all the way and was played to a very quick tempo.

Georgia State has a great scorer in Kane Williams. Williams is a tough matchup for Georgia Tech. The Panthers should get open looks from 3 against a questionable three point defense from the Yellow Jackets.

Georgia Tech has an excellent shooter in Devoe. He is over 50% from 3 point range on the season thus far. Georgia State is one of the worst in the country at defending beyond the arc. I think that is a problem here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Fran McCaffrey's Iowa Hawkeyes have absolutely loved to crush weaker opponents and push the pace all the way to the finish. This has happened year after year with McCaffrey in Iowa City.

Iowa has already 106 points or more three times this year. Though I'm not predicting they'll get to that number here, I do think they'll put up a big number. SE Louisiana has no answer at all for Keegan Murray, Pat McCaffrey, and Jordan Bohannon. 

Iowa hasn't scored less than 85 points in a single home game all year. They have scored 106 or more in half of their home games. 

SE Louisiana prefers to play quickly and they should get enough possessions in this game to get us enough points to get past the posted total. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* IUPUI is the worst offense in the country right now. They are dead last in the nation in offensive efficiency. IUPUI hasn't topped 59 points in a game against a Division I opponent all year. They haven't topped 61 points against anyone. IUPUI has been held to 47 points or less in 6 of their 9 Division I matchups. Ouch.

Morehead State is an above average defense. The Eagles have struggled so far this year defending the 3 point line, but in the past they have been good there. I don't believe IUPUI is the team to make them pay in that area anyways.

Morehead State likes to play slowly and IUPUI absolutely has to play stall ball at this point.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers have played ten games against Division I opponents this year. Eastern Illinois has yet to score more than 62 points in any of those games. Even worse, they have only scored more than 56 points in two of their contests. This is a dreadful Eastern Illinois offense. They rank 355th out of 358 offenses in the country in offensive efficiency. Eastern Illinois is terrible offensively, and they play very slowly as well. Despite being behind nearly all the time, this team ranks 309th in average possession length.

Ball State plays quickly and they have had quite a few high scoring games. The Cardinals should win this game comfortably. Ball State has played a lot of fast paced good offenses this year. Eastern Illinois is far from that. I think the fact that Ball State has played so many very good offenses (Xavier, Weber State, UMass, etc) inflates this total. Ball State has been an above average defense in each of the last three years. I think their defensive numbers will improve as we move forward.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers have a really weak offense. Their best offense is getting to the free throw line. Outside of that, they really have no strength as an offense. They are a pretty good offensive rebounding team, but Jacksonville is 10th in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Jacksonville is well coached by Jordan Mincy and he has this team focusing on defense. They gave up just 55 points against a good Minnesota team. They also allowed only 63 points against a fast paced UCF team. 

Pitt has already played 5 games this year that stayed under this very low total. That includes their last game over ultra fast paced St. John's where Pitt controlled the pace.

Both teams want to play slowly here, and I see this being a major grinder.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters are an excellent defensive team every single year under Russell Turner. If you don't work hard on the defensive end of the floor, you don't play for Turner. UC Irvine is 6th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense this season. Their "free throw defense" has been this year, which would suggest that they are actually due for positive regression in that area. 

Duquesne tries to get inside and finish in the mid range area and post up more than the average team. UC Irvine is a much taller team than them and the Anteaters should make their shots difficult.

UC Irvine goes through long scoring droughts on offense and they shoot far too many mid range tough jump shots.

This is played on a neutral court which is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Josh Allen is banged up for the Buffalo Bills. I would expect the Bills to be more cautious in their play calling here for a couple reasons. First, the Panthers have a good secondary and they could make things difficult for the Bills to begin with. Second, the Bills are a big favorite here and they can likely win this game without Allen having to do a lot. Allen is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the league as well, and limited mobility makes him much less dangerous.

The Panthers offense is a mess regardless of whether Cam Newton or PJ Walker is under center. Carolina is going to want to run the football a bunch here. Matt Rhule has said he wants 35 carries a game. Here is his chance. The Bills secondary is above average even with their injury problems. The Bills run defense was taken advantage of by the Patriots. I don't think the Panthers can do the same, but they will try.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The CS Northridge Matadors have completely changed their style of play under Trent Johnson. They were a run and gun team for many years, but Johnson has them slowing the pace down in a big way and trying to win low scoring contests. 

CS Northridge has played six straight games that finished regulation with 122 points or less. This is a really low scoring team that has improved on defense as well.

Portland State is a terrible offensive team. The Vikings prefer to play somewhat fast, but they are one of the worst offenses in terms of efficiency in the country. Portland State has played an easy schedule of defenses so far this year, and they still have shot just 23% from 3 point range and are averaging only 0.92 points per possession.

This should be a hard fought game where both teams take a lot of tough shots.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LSU Tigers were amazing defensively the past few years. They were bad on the defensive end the past few years. The team couldn't be more different this year. LSU is now only a little above average on the offensive end. They are now elite on the defensive end. The Tigers are rated #1 in effective field goal percentage defense and #2 in the country in defensive efficiency.

It is their length all over the floor and multiple shot blockers patrolling the paint that makes LSU such a good defensive team this year. Will Wade has recruited long post players, and it is working out. LSU hasn't played a single game that finished with more than 143 points this year.

LA Tech is an above average team and they are pretty good on defense as well. Kenneth Lofton is excellent, but he'll likely be at least slowed down by LSU's length in the frontcourt.

This game is played on a neutral floor which is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both St. Peter's and Stony Brook have looked much better on the offensive end this year than they did last season. 

Stony Brook is 134th in effective field goal percentage offense this year after being just below #300 last year. The Seawolves got a couple key transfers in Anthony Roberts and Jahlil Jenkins. Both of those guys are solid outside shooters, and Stony Brook has been good from 3 point range this season.

St. Peter's attacks the rim in a big way. They get to the line a lot, and Stony Brook has been bad at defending the paint this year. 

Stony Brook and St. Peter's are both playing about 3 possessions per game faster than they did a year ago.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles are very reliant on the passing attack. Eastern Michigan is averaging only 3.4 yards per carry (108th out of 130 teams in the country). The Eagles rely on Ben Bryant to complete a bunch of quick passes and do damage through the air. Liberty's strength on defense is their pass defense and their pass rush. Eastern Michigan has given up 38 sacks (Liberty has 33 sacks too). Liberty ranks 17th in passing play success rate allowed.

Eastern Michigan's defense isn't good, but they do rank 9th in explosive plays allowed. They don't give up many big plays. That will help against Liberty's explosive offense. Liberty has allowed 50 sacks this year, and the Eagles should get to Willis some of the time. Eastern Michigan has done a good job slowing teams down once they get into the red zone as well.

There is rain in the forecast for this one and that could keep things a little more conservative. I think Liberty will do a good job slowing down Eastern Michigan's passing attack especially with help from the weather.

The pace of the game should be fairly slow.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Nebraska Omaha ranked in the top ten in pace in the country in 2016 and 2017. The team has been fairly quick in recent seasons, but they have slowed down a bit. Coach Derrin Henson said before the year that he has the depth he needs to run at a blistering pace this year again. 

Omaha started the year playing a bit slower than I expected, but they were playing some very good defenses. The Mavericks have played four straight games to 70 possessions or quicker. Omaha ranks as a bottom ten defense in the country. This Mavericks team gives up points in bunches.

UNLV has played quicker of late as well. Kevin Kruger does want the Rebels to get out in transition more than they have in recent years. UNLV has played two of their last three games to 72 possessions and 71 possessions. The Rebels have faced the 54th toughest schedule of defenses this year. This is the worst defense they have faced all season. 

Look for a pretty quick pace here. The total is a little too low given the tempo I expect here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars are very well coached by Kyle Smith. Washington State is coming off a loss to South Dakota State. South Dakota State is one of the most efficient offenses in the country. They'll go up against another quality team here in New Mexico State. New Mexico State is a team that plays much slower though, and the Aggies depend on defense.

New Mexico State is 284th in average possession length in the country. Washington State is 242nd in average possession length. This game should be played at a pretty slow tempo.

Washington State's defense has faced some really tough offenses already this year. The Cougars defense is better than it looks on paper. Washington State hasn't faced many good defenses though, and I think their offensive numbers will regress in the coming weeks.

These two teams are good on the defensive boards and I think open looks will be tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks host the LA Lakers tonight. Luka Doncic is expected to miss this game. 

Dallas ranks as the slowest paced team in the NBA in the last eight games. It isn't particularly close either. In fact, in their last two games without Doncic, the Mavericks played to a pace of just under 90 possessions per game. That's extremely slow.

The Lakers are middle of the pack in tempo. Los Angeles does rank 6th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Mavericks rank 7th. These two teams are both competing well on the defensive end.

Both Malik Monk and Talen Horton Tucker are likely out here for the Lakers and those guys are good offensive options.

The referee crew is a positive as well. Brian Forte is 54.9% unders in his games as a ref (more than 800 games) and James Williams is at 52% unders in his career.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles take a lot of mid range jumpers that are low quality shots. Southern Miss has been a trainwreck on offense so far this year. How bad have they been? They have scored 56 points or less in 5 of their 8 games against Division I competition so far this season. 

Jacksonville has a new coach in Jordan Mincy and the team is built around defense. The Dolphins are showing it already. Jacksonville has allowed 56 points or less in 4 of their first 6 games against Division I teams. That includes allowing only 55 points against a good Minnesota team.

The tempo here should be very slow. Jacksonville ranks 345th in average possession length and they have been great at controlling the pace of the game. 

Both of these teams are great on the defensive glass, so I don't expect many second chance points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense is the best in the NFL. They have scored 29 points or more in eight straight games. Tom Brady and this Bucs offense have consistently been tremendous this year.

Buffalo's defense is good, but the Bills defense isn't as good as it looks on paper. First, the Bills have faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The Bills have also played in a couple bad weather games that have helped their numbers. Also, Tre'Davious White is now out and he is their top cover corner. That's not a good guy to be without when going against this Bucs passing attack.

The Bills offense is still good. Last week's game against New England is a throw away. The winds there were far too much to throw the ball around. Josh Allen should have success against a middle of the road Bucs secondary. 

The weather here looks good. The total is pretty high, but I think this is a back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers secondary has been aggressive this year. They have been able to force some turnovers, but they are also prone to giving up big plays. Joe Burrow has turned it over too much this year and the 49ers could pick up an interception or two here. Still, Burrow is a good quarterback and his receivers are very good. They are more than capable of the big play ball here.

The Bengals lost their defensive leader in Logan Wilson due to an injury. Cincinnati's defense is clearly better than last year, but they aren't as good as their statistics on the season would tell you. They have played a weak slate of opposing offenses. Ewuzie is likely to try to play, but he is far less than 100%. Deebo Samuel is expected to play here and that helps the 49ers in a big way. George Kittle should have a big game against a Bengals defense that has struggled badly covering tight ends this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Texans are the worst offense in the NFL, and it isn't close. Houston has been held to 9 points or less in six of their last ten games. The Texans gained 2.8 yards per play at home against a mediocre Colts defense in their last game. Houston has no strengths on defense.

The Seattle Seahawks offense has been a mess of late as well. Seattle might have won last weekend, but the offense didn't look like it was fixed. In fact, they only gained 4.8 yards per play. The offensive line is weak and Russell Wilson doesn't look 100 percent.

The Seattle defense has been good against the run. Houston has no deep passing to keep them honest.

The Texans defense has been fighting hard in recent weeks. They haven't given up.

An ugly game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones defense has been amazing this year. They just held the Iowa Hawkeyes to 53 points in their last game. The Hawkeyes offense is one of the best in the country. Iowa State ranks 9th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Jackson State is 336th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Tigers have played two top 50 teams in the country so far this year (Indiana and Illinois). They scored 35 points and 47 points in those two games. It wouldn't be a surprise if they struggle to get past 50 points in this one.

Iowa State has had some trouble taking care of the basketball, and Jackson State is a scrappy defense that forces the opposition to turn it over a lot.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks host the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday at noon eastern. This is an early Sunday tipoff, and these early tips on Sunday have been good under plays in the past decade. Sunday is the best day for unders in the NBA long term by a wide margin, and the early games have been even better for the under. 

The New York Knicks tempo is second slowest in the NBA in the last ten games. The Bucks rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. Milwaukee is playing fairly quick, but they are playing slower than they did a year ago.

These two teams have met twice this year. The posted totals were 216.5 and 216. Both of those games went under the total. One of the unders was a game where the Bucks nailed a whopping 26 three pointers. The pace has been slow in the first two matchups.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are a better scoring team than they were the last couple seasons, but this is still a bad offense. They went from being the worst offense in the country to being just bad on offense. Fordham has played the 5th easiest slate of defenses this year, so their offensive numbers look a little better than they should.

Miami's weakness defensively is giving up too many three point shots. Fordham shot 27% from 3 last year, and they are only at 30.7% from beyond the arc so far this season. The Rams aren't likely to be able to take advantage of the Miami weakness.

This game is an early tipoff on a neutral court. Neutral courts are a positive for unders on the whole.

Fordham puts in effort on defense and they will slow the game down a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters take on the Fresno State Bulldogs today. Both of these teams are tremendous on the defensive end. One thing I always look for with a low under is two teams who can rebound well defensively. We don't want second chance points for offenses in a low total. Both of these two teams rank in the top 25 in the nation in defensive rebounding. They are also both better than average at defending without fouling.

UC Irvine ranks 54th in defensive efficiency. Fresno State ranks 71st in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Both teams are excellent at protecting the rim. While both of these offenses like to attack the paint, they should find it difficult to score in the paint here.

The pace should be very slow. UC Irvine is 300th in tempo in the country. Fresno State is 344th. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play* Both TCU and Texas A&M are defense oriented teams. TCU always plays slowly with Dixon as their head coach. TCU also ranks 7th in least fouls committed in the country. The Horned Frogs have played several very fast paced opponents of late (Pepperdine, Oral Roberts, Santa Clara) which has skewed their games higher scoring than they usually would be.

Texas A&M has struggled badly on offense under Buzz Williams, but they will always compete on the defensive end. The Aggies excel at defending the paint. That's key because TCU likes to attack the basket.

This one is played at Toyota Center which is known as an under venue because it is so spacious. 

Two defensive teams who play slowly in a hotly contested game on a neutral floor.

Take the under.