*4 Star Play Over* Chi Chi Gonzalez is one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors. Gonzalez is striking out only 5.15 batters per nine innings. He gives up a lot of long ball and is prone to allowing big innings. It would be easy to assume Gonzalez is just a victim of Coors Field, but that isn't the case. Gonzalez's road numbers have actually been worse than his numbers at home. His career road numbers are a 5.79 ERA and a .343 wOBA allowed. What about this year? Gonzalez has a road ERA of 7.59 and a WOBA allowed of a whopping .404. 

Eric Lauer isn't a very good lefty. While the Rockies can't right handed pitching, they are pretty good against lefties. Lauer has very poor historic numbers against the Rockies as well. Colorado's lineup has an amazing .516 wOBA against him in 73 at bats. Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon have both crushed him in the past. 

Both pitchers are more than capable of giving up a big number. In Gonzalez's last 10 games, eight of the ten games have had a total of 12 runs scored in them.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns and LA Clippers are locked into a tight battle in the Western Conference Finals. The Suns are up 2-1, but they could easily be down 2-1. Their last second win in game two was huge. The Clippers though have shown they are more than comfortable coming from down 2-0 in a series. 

The Clippers really turned up the defense in game three in their win over Phoenix. They also slowed the pace of the game a bit. Phoenix's Devin Booker struggled on offense with his mask for a facial injury. Chris Paul looked very rusty after missing a lot of time in the covid protocol. 

Phoenix's Cameron Payne is banged up right now and he has been key to the Suns offense especially in pushing the pace in the past. 

The Clippers offense is too reliant on Paul George without Leonard healthy. The Suns do have some quality defensive players who can make George have to work hard at all times.

The average pace for the first three games has been 93.67 possessions. At that pace, both teams could average 1.15 points per possession and the game would still a few points under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Which team is worst in the majors in offense on the road this year? The answer is the Colorado Rockies, and it isn't even close. Colorado has an overall team weighted on base average on the road of .254. The second worst team on the road is Pittsburgh at .276. Wow. The Rockies lineup is extremely weak this year and they have banged up quite a bit as well. Seattle is clearly a pitchers park.

Seattle ranks second last in the majors in wOBA at home this year. The Mariners have won a lot of low scoring on their home field. German Marquez is the Rockies ace and he has five great starts in his last six starts.

Justus Sheffield has been much better at home than on the road in his career. 

This is a get away day game and that is a plus for the under. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brandon Woodruff is very underrated. He's coming off a subpar start at Coors Field, but nearly everyone struggles at Coors Field. Even with that bad start at Coors Field, Woodruff has a stunning 1.59 ERA and a .170 weighted on base average away from home this year. In his career, his numbers are much better on the road than at home. 

He'll be at Chase Field (with the roof closed) on Wednesday afternoon. Carson Kelly is out with an injury for Arizona and Ketel Marte left last night's game with an injury and is questionable here. The Diamondbacks are very weak against right handed pitching.

Milwaukee's lineup hasn't been very good in recent weeks. The Brewers face Caleb Smith who has been in pretty good form of late.

Ryan Blakney is the umpire here and he is clearly an under umpire through the last few seasons.

This is a get away day game and those have been more to the under in the long run. There are likely to be a couple key guys out of the lineup.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies are much better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. The Rockies rank 25th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are an impressive 5th in the majors against lefties. Colorado gets to face a subpar lefty here in Eric Lauer. Lauer has terrible numbers against this Rockies lineup too. They have a .560 wOBA against him in only 53 at bats. A small sample size, but the Rockies have crushed him.

Chi Chi Gonzalez isn't good at all. In his last six starts, he has a 6.86 ERA and a 5.91 FIP. Gonzalez doesn't induce soft contact, and he also doesn't miss bats. It's a really bad combination for a starting pitcher. The Brewers bats woke up a bit last night, and I like their matchup against Gonzalez and a poor Rockies bullpen here.

Day games at Coors Field in hot temperatures have been great to over bettors in the long run. The high temperature here is scheduled to be about 89 degrees during this game. 

Both teams should score plenty here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Kansas City hosts Boston on Sunday afternoon and the weather here should play a role in this game. A high temperature of 94 degrees with sustained winds blowing out to center field of 16 mph and gusts of 20-25 mph are in the forecast.

Nate Eovaldi is a solid pitcher, but this Kansas City lineup is deeper than most people realize. The Boston bullpen is also worn down right now.

Mike Minor isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago. Minor goes up against a Boston lineup that has scored 30 runs in their last four contests. 

The wind matters more in Kansas City than most ballparks. At Kaufman Stadium with a temperature of 89 degrees and wind blowing out 7 mph or more, the over is 26-10 in the last 36 contests.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Walker Buehler has pitched a shutout in each of his last two starts. Buehler has thrown 13 innings and allowed only 7 hits and no runs in those games. He started the season a bit slowly, but Buehler has a history of getting better as the season goes on. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit left handed pitching well this year, but they are a bottom six offense in baseball against right handed pitching. Buehler is one of the better starters in the majors and he should make it tough on them.

The Dodgers certainly have a very good offense, but they are a bit banged up right now. Matt Peacock has been up and down thus far in the majors, but he does have solid control.

Chase Field will have the roof closed here and that is good for under bettors. Even better for under bettors is the fact that Doug Eddings will be the home plate umpire. He has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in Major League Baseball over the last eight years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have lost back to back games where they were completely in control against the Atlanta Hawks. The 76ers now have their backs against the wall. Can they take care of business on the road to force a game 7?

Philadelphia had the second best defense when it comes to defensive efficiency in the regular season. The 76ers allowed just 1.070 points per possession. Atlanta had way too much offensive success late in game 5. Doc Rivers and some of the players talked about that in the postgame quotes. I think we see Philadelphia show a better effort on the defensive end here.

Atlanta's defense has been improved since Nate McMillan took over in the middle of the season, and that is the main reason they are at this point in the playoffs.

The long term trends for NBA closeout games going under the total are hard to ignore. The games tend to slow down and the defenses tend to improve when so much is on the line. We saw a game like that between the Bucks and the Nets on Thursday night. Also, the 76ers and Hawks average tempo has been just 98.5 possessions in the last two games which is clearly slower than it was in the first couple games of the series. 

At this high total, I'll side with the under in this crucial game six contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays rank 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average at home. Tampa Bay is 6th in the majors in wOBA on the road. The Chicago White Sox are first in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Shane McClanahan starts for the Rays here. This is the toughest test he has faced this year. He has struggled with the long ball, and Chicago certainly has power hitters through the lineup. 

Dallas Keuchel isn't even close to the pitcher he was a few years ago. Keuchel has a 4.14 ERA and a 6.03 xERA. Keuchel has an extremely low 5.15 strikeouts per nine innings on the year. 

The wind is blowing out in Chicago for this one and I expect both teams to get plenty of scoring chances in this one. 

The over is 22-9-1 in the Rays last 32 road games. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles now rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. It's quite the surprise, but Baltimore has consistently been very good against even high quality lefties this year.

The over is 7-0 in Baltimore's last 7 vs. a left handed starter. 

While Yarbrough is a quality pitcher, he has actually been far worse at home than on the road in his career. Yarbrough has a 4.48 ERA at home and a 3.46 ERA on the road. His weighted on base average in his career at home is .316 compared to just .281 on the road.

Akin for the Orioles has a 2.92 ERA at home and a 5.57 ERA on the road in his career. His wOBA allowed at home is just .253, but on the road it is .361. 

This is an awfully low total considering these numbers.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The over is 23-10 in the Angels 33 road games this year. Last year when Angel Stadium ranked 5th in park factor (a major hitters park) some wondered if it was a fluke. It ranks 8th this year so this is clearly a hitter friendly park at this point. It is 4th in home runs per inning in the majors.

Griffin Canning and Brad Keller have both looked worse this year than they have in the last couple years. Canning has an ERA nearly a full run higher in the first half of the season than the second half in his career, so he might improve later in the year. Canning has a 5.82 ERA and a 5.52 FIP this year. 

Keller has a 5.50 ERA and a 6.41 xERA. His FIP is 4.69. Keller has been a major disappointment this year. 

The Angels hit right handed pitching well, even without Mike Trout in the lineup. The Royals sit middle of the pack in wOBA against right handed pitching.

These are two bottom ten bullpens. Neither of these pitchers have been good at pitching deep into the game, and the middle relief here is weak.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Padres and Mets have two of the top five bullpens in baseball. Their depth is really impressive. It has allowed them to limit big innings late in the games in most circumstances.

Chris Paddack has drastic splits at home vs. on the road. He gets to start at home here and he'll be up against the severely shorthanded Mets offense. 

Marcus Stroman goes up against a Padres offense that has scored 4 runs or less in six straight games. They have scored 2 runs or less in four of those six games. 

Tripp Gibson is one of the better under umpires in baseball. The under is 10-1 in his last 11 games behind home plate this year. He consistently has a high strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks and the LA Clippers square off in Game 7 at Staples Center on Sunday afternoon. This is an early start time on the west coast. These early start games have been good to under bettors in the past decade. Additionally, Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the past decade. This game has both.

Even more importantly though, it is a game 7 in the playoffs. This game is the most important game of the year for both teams. Win or go home. In the last three games of the series the final total was 187, 205, and 201 points. The defenses have definitely improved as the series has gone along. Both teams have been working in some zone defenses and slowing down the opposition much better than they did earlier in the series.

Luka Doncic is getting a ton of attention from the Clippers defense right now. Kristaps Porzingis isn't making them pay for that either. His offense has been terrible in this series.

The Clippers have consistently played poorly on offense in huge games the past few season. 

Of course these two teams could bury shots and this one go over the total, but I think this is a plus expected value wager.

Game 7's are a different animal. The pace should stay slow here and the defenses will be making most of the shots contested.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays rank 6th in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Texas Rangers rank 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching. Both teams are starting left handed pitchers in this game though. 

How do the two teams look against lefties? The Rays are all the way down at 24th, a big drop from their performance against right handed pitching. Texas is worse as well, sitting at 26th in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Rich Hill started the year pitching poorly, but he has turned that around in a big way of late. Hill has allowed just 3 runs in his last 34 and 2/3 innings pitched. He now goes against a weak Rangers offense. 

Kolby Allard has potential for the Rangers. He hasn't been consistent, but this ballpark has proven to be favorable for pitchers. It ranks almost exactly on par with Petco Park so far this year in park factor. 

Texas is a bad team, but they have a top 10 bullpen. Tampa Bay's bullpen is deep and solid as they always are.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals meet in Kansas City on Friday night. 

Kansas City has scored 5 runs or more in six straight games. The Royals have scored 42 runs in that time (7 runs per game). They now go up against a pitcher in bad form in Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker has 5.90 ERA and a 5.66 FIP on the season. He has been bad. 

Brad Keller has a 5.68 ERA. He has a 6.55 xERA and a 4.77 FIP. No matter how you look at it, Keller has been bad this year as well.

Both bullpens are below average so there chances for runs late too.

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire here. The over is 137-107 in his games behind home plate. 

The weather is a help here too. The wind is blowing out about 10 mph and this stadium has shown strong over trends with the wind blowing out like this. A warm temperature in the low 80's is a positive as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers are down 3-2 and they come home to Staples Center to try to level this series at 3. 

Anthony Davis missed last game with a groin injury and he is listed as questionable for this one. Davis actually ranked as the team's highest rated offensive player in the regular season (just ahead of LeBron James). His versatility creates tons of open looks for everyone on this Lakers offense. Even if Davis plays, he won't be even close to 100 percent here. I think that hurts the Lakers offense quite a bit.

The Lakers rated as the best defense in the NBA in the regular season. They have won quite a few games down the stretch when they were shorthanded with their defensive pressure. 

The Suns and Lakers have shown they are happy to play at a slower pace in this series. One game went over the total in the first five, and that one didn't have any business going over (late fouls pushed it just over the number).

Elimination games late in the series have been strong to the under in the long run in the NBA. While this is a low number, it is low for a reason.

Expect the pace to be slow and the defensive intensity to be impressive here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* With the way these two teams have been shooting the ball this isn't an easy play to make, but I have to do it. The average pace of the first 3 games in this series is 90.83 possessions. 

The two teams have averaged 1.275 points per possession (Dallas) and 1.257 points per possession (LA Clippers) in the series. These are the two highest points per possession of any team in the NBA playoffs thus far. Are these the two best offenses in the NBA? No. Are these two of the worst defenses in the NBA? No. 

In the regular season these two played three games that all finished at 208 points or lower. 

With a pace of 90.83 possessions, the two teams would have to average more than 1.22 points per possession to get over this total. Their season long numbers don't suggest that can keep happening. The Clippers are a top five defense in the NBA for the year, and the Mavericks are an NBA average defense.

The NBA playoffs tend to bring about better defense and slower paced games as the games get more meaningful. These two teams have been red hot from the floor in the first three games. I think regression is likely.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners square off on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. 

Hyeon-Jong Yang starts for the Rangers here. He is a unique lefty who can give some hitters trouble if they haven't seen him. The Mariners haven't seen him. Seattle is a bottom three offense in baseball. Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 12 games. The Mariners have scored more than 4 runs only once during that time. 

Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Mariners here. He has looked like an improved pitcher this year. His walk rate is better and he is getting hitters to chase at more bad balls. The Texas offense is worse against left handed pitching. 

Mahrley is an under umpire behind the plate and this is still a pitchers park in Seattle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners are a bottom three offense in baseball. In fact, you could argue they are the worst offense in the majors in their current state. Texas is no better than an average offense, and I would say they are slightly worse than the average offense.

Justin Dunn has been a lot better when pitching at home than on the road. Dunn has had some promising starts of late as well. 

Mike Foltynewicz is certainly an up and down pitcher, but he gets to face a team that swings and misses a ton.

Texas has scored 0 runs in 3 of their last 9 games. Seattle has scored 3 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. They have only scored more than 4 runs once in that 11 game span.

Tripp Gibson has proven to be a solid under umpire in his time behind the plate. The under is 9-0 in his 9 games behind home plate this year. His strikeout/walk ratio has been much higher than the league average in recent seasons as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The average pace in this series has been 95.5 possessions. If we assume there will be 96 possessions and both teams average 1.18 points per possession (higher than any team in the NBA averaged in the regular season) the total would still be lower than this posted total.

Both teams have shot lights out in this series. These aren't great defensive teams by any means, so I would expect fairly good shooting numbers. However, as the games get more important, the tempo usually slows even more and the defense gets a little better. 

In game three, there were more than 50 points scored in the last six minutes of the game. There were 29 points scored in the final 2:29 of the contest. That made a game that was a stone cold under turn into a terrible bad beat for under bettors. That has given us more value on the under here though. 

This game starts early in the afternoon local time. Early games have been better for under bettors than late games in the long term since the players are not accustomed to starting this early very often.

Of course both teams could shoot well and this lose, but at this high of a number I see a lot of value in this. Two of the three regular season games between these two finished at 217 points or lower.

This game means a lot to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians host the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night in Cleveland.

The weather should play a big factor in this game. Winds of 20-25 mph blowing in off Lake Erie make the under a very good look here. There is a chance of rain that could be a factor here as well so I'm keeping this play smaller than I would have if it would have been dry. Still, if the game is played this under holds value.

Ryu has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball over the last few years. He has great control and induces soft contact at a good rate. The Cleveland offense is one of the worst in baseball.

The Indians are going with a bullpen game here. That isn't a bad thing either since the Indians bullpen has been elite this year. 

The Blue Jays bullpen is an underrated group so if there are rain delays and Ryu gets pulled early the bullpen should hold their own as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mike Muchlinski is a solid under umpire. He has called more strikes in the long run than the average umpire by a solid amount. This is a very early get away day game. These kinds of games have been lower scoring on the average in the long run. 

Bryce Harper and Didi Gregorius are out of the lineup for the Phillies. That is a big hit to this Phillies offense. 

The Marlins offense is one of the weakest in the majors. This is still a favorable park for pitchers as well.

Spencer Howard has a ton of upside and this is a real opportunity for him. 

Pablo Lopez has been amazing at home in his career, and he is having his best year of his career this season. Only one of Lopez's last five starts has gone over this very low total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jose Urena has a 4.62 ERA and a 5.12 xERA on the year. His xBA ranks in the bottom 10 percent of all pitchers in baseball. His strikeout rate is in the 7th percentile of all pitchers.

Triston McKenzie has a 6.89 ERA and a 5.68 xERA. McKenzie ranks in the bottom 1 percent of all pitchers in baseball in walk rate. How bad has his control been? McKenzie has walked 4 batters or more in all but one start this year. 

Both pitchers come into this game in bad form. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 12-15 mph during this game. Comerica Park has strong over trends with winds blowing out. In fact, with a temperature of 65 or higher and wind out at least 10 mph the over is 49-23-2 in the last 74 at Comerica.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The slowest paced game of the NBA playoffs so far was easily the Mavericks/Clippers Game 1 contest. That game was played to a snail's pace of 87.5 possessions. Both teams shot the ball far above their season averages and the game still finished at only 216 points. 

Dallas put up 1.284 points per possession. The Clippers averaged 1.184 points per possession. The average for these teams on offense during the regular season was about 1.15 points per possession. The two defenses gave up about 1.11 points per possession on average. 

The Clippers defense should be better in game two. The Mavericks got far too many open looks from 3 point range in game one. 

There were also 50 free throws in game one which is above normal for these teams. 

The Clippers are a top five defensive rebounding team in the NBA on the year. Dallas got back 34.9% of their misses on offense in game one. That should improve here.

While both of these teams are capable of shooting very well, this total is too high based upon the pace the regular season games between these two played out to. It is clearly too high if the pace from the first game in the playoffs happens again.

With playoff intensity and tighter defense, I think there is value here.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* We saw the first day of NBA playoff games definitely ran lower scoring than regular season games on average. The pace was slower and the defensive intensity did pick up quite a bit. 

The New York Knicks were the slowest paced team in the NBA this year. The Knicks have been able to clamp down on defense in some of their biggest games this year. Coach Thibodeau has really changed this team for the better on the defensive end. 

Atlanta is a different team under Nate McMillan as well. The Hawks are now a middle of the road defense and middle of the road or slightly slower paced team. Earlier in the year this was a team looking to run all the time and playing very little defense.

The regular season games between these two were high, but this game means far more to both teams. Madison Square Garden is a good under venue on the whole because of the tough shooting backdrops. This being game one of a huge playoff series for the Knicks when they have been so bad for a long time should create some extra jitters and a great atmosphere.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* In general we see the scoring go down in the NBA playoffs. Of course there will be some very high scoring games, but overall the average shooting numbers and the average tempo dips in the playoffs. The regular season games don't have the same intensity of these games.

Dallas and the LA Clippers have a rematch of their playoff series from last season here. There were some very high scoring games in that series. It is certainly possibly that could happen again, but these are different teams than a year ago.

With Rajon Rondo on the Clippers team and Lou Williams gone, the Clippers are playing a much slower pace. Williams was the Clippers most efficient offensive player against Dallas last year as well. The Clippers ranked 8th in the NBA in tempo last year. They ranked 28th in tempo this year.

Dallas ranked 18th in tempo last year. They ranked 26th this year. The Mavericks have been slightly less efficient on offense this year as well.

The three regular season games between these two finished at 197 points, 208 points, and 194 points. 

The average pace was 93.8 possessions (very slow) in those regular season games. The two teams averaging a very good 1.16 points per possession (above average) with a pace of 94 possessions would still put this total at only 218. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have Jorge Lopez on the mound here. Lopez has a 6.35 ERA and a 5.69 FIP. He gives up a ton of home runs. Lopez has allowed: 1.96 home runs per 9 innings in 2019, 1.62 HR per nine last year, and 2.12 HR's per nine this year. His career swinging strike rate is only 9.1%. He doesn't fool enough people and the Nationals do have some power in their lineup now that they have gotten healthier.

Stephen Strasburg will be on a pitch count here. Exactly how many he will throw we don't know, but he hasn't thrown any more than 75 in his rehab starts working up to this game. Strasburg has much better numbers in the second half of the season than the first half in his career, and he struggled badly in his first two starts earlier this year. 

With neither of these pitchers expected to pitch deep into the game, the middle relief should show up here. Both of these teams are middle of the road or worse when it comes to their bullpen overall. The weakness for both teams is middle relief where they are lacking depth. 

The game time temperature is a balmy 80 degrees in mid May and the ball should be carrying well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Bill Miller is one of the two best under umpires in baseball. Miller has had a strike percentage higher than the major league average every single season dating back to 2010. He is as consistent as they come at being a strike caller. That alone can't make a game go under the total, but it is a great bonus. 

Dane Dunning is an underrated pitcher. Dunning is due for some positive regression. He has a 4.34 ERA, but all his advanced metrics suggest he has been better than that. His xERA is 3.74 and his FIP is a stunning 2.63. He has an xFIP of 3.18. Dunning has a solid 10.9% swinging strike rate and he has good control.

The Rangers have been no hit twice this year, and this is clearly one of the weakest lineups in baseball. German is a solid pitcher for the Yankees. New York also has a top three bullpen in all of baseball. 

It's an early get away day game and that means there could be a star or two missing from the lineups here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins start Trevor Rogers in this one. Rogers has been fantastic this year. He has a 1.84 ERA with a 2.73 xERA and a 2.42 FIP. He is averaging 11.66 strikeouts per nine innings. Rogers has multiple strikeout pitches. He faces a Phillies lineup that is without Gregorius and Realmuto is questionable with an injury as well. 

Zach Eflin faces the Marlins lineup that ranks third from last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Eflin has a career ERA of 3.98 at home compared to 5.12 on the road. Eflin has a 3.86 ERA this year, but his xERA is 3.24 and his FIP is 3.95. Eflin is a positive regression candidate. 

Jeremie Rehak is the home plate umpire here and his strikes called percentage have consistently shown to be one of the highest of any umpire in the majors. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Indians have a team batting average on balls in play of .240 this year. The Seattle Mariners have a team batting average on balls in play of .244. No one else in baseball has a BABIP below .261. Neither of these offenses are great, but they are definitely better than they have looked so far this year. Positive regression is on the way in the long term. 

We have two pitchers with command issues here. Triston McKenzie has walked 4 guys or more in all but one of his starts this year. Justus Sheffield has had significant control problems in his career as well.

Stu Scheurwater is behind home plate and he has a smaller strike zone than the average MLB umpire. That could be a key here with these two starters.

Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* Steven Matz has been a wildly inconsistent pitcher through his career. He has allowed far too many home runs on a consistent basis though. That isn't a good fit for TD Ballpark in Dunedin, where the Blue Jays are playing their home games right now. Matz has only pitched at home twice this year and one of those starts (against Washington) was one where he allowed 8 hits and 6 runs in 3 and 2/3 innings pitched. The Phillies have plenty of power, and I think they'll get to Matz here.

Vince Velasquez has even more trouble with hard hit fly balls than Matz. Velasquez has a terrible 2.28 homers allowed per nine innings rate so far this year. The Blue Jays have scored at a very high rate at home so far this year.

Both starting pitchers have blowup potential here and these are two quality offenses. 

This is the second best ballpark for hitters according to Park Factors so far this year.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Usually I begin by talking about the starting pitchers, but in this one I think the bullpens deserve the first spot. The Yankees have what many believe is the best bullpen in baseball. They have shutdown relievers who have elite swing and miss stuff. They rank first in the majors in bullpen xFIP and SIERA on the year. Tampa Bay has a very deep bullpen. That allows them to use a guy like Rich Hill and not take him deep into the game because they have multiple good options to bring in right after him.

The Yankees offense hasn't really gotten going all that much this year, and this is a pitcher friendly park. Tampa Bay has historically been better offensively on the road. 

Jameson Taillon has great control and his xERA is only 2.97 compared to his ERA of 5.02. He has had some very tough luck so far this year. 

Rich Hill has a 5.17 ERA and a xERA of only 3.57. His curveball is still excellent and he has above average control.

The under is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 road games. The under is 6-0 in the Yankees last 6 vs. an AL East opponent. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox have been the most consistent team in the majors when it comes to crushing left handed pitching in the last two years. They rank second in weighted on base average against lefties so far this year. The Minnesota Twins rank a solid 11th.

J.A. Happ is 38 years old. He has had a very nice season, but he is due for regression to the mean. Happ has a 1.91 ERA and a 4.22 xERA. He also has a 3.84 FIP and a 5.39 xFIP. He has allowed a ridiculously low .179 batting average on balls in play. That can't continue in the long run. The White Sox should get a lot of good swings here. The White Sox lineup has a .347 wOBA against him. 

Dallas Keuchel has a 3.79 ERA and a 5.29 xERA. Keuchel is still a quality pitcher, but he is no longer dominant. The Twins have a nice .324 wOBA against him. 

This is a low total for two offenses who hit lefties very well. These pitchers aren't good enough to have this low of a total against strong offenses. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros lineup is one of the deeper lineups in baseball. All of their top six guys in the order are elite. Jason Castro has slumped early this year, but he is a solid long term hitter in the nine spot. There are a lot of professional hitters in this lineup. They make pitchers work. 

Shohei Ohtani has been good on the mound, but he walks far too many batters. Ohtani is walking 9.16 batters per nine innings so far this year. He struggled mightily with command last year in his two starts as well. The Astros are likely to have key guys come up with some runners in scoring position here.

Lance McCullers Jr. is an inconsistent pitcher. He is capable of shutting teams out. He is also capable of getting hit hard. The Angels lineup has a stellar .367 career weighted on base average against him. 

Both of these pitchers struggle with control, and Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. He has one of the smallest strike zones of any umpire in baseball. He is a clear over umpire.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Charlotte Hornets offense is a completely different looking unit with LaMelo Ball on the floor. Charlotte had some major offensive struggles without Ball and Malik Monk in recent months. Those guys are back on the floor and two key things have occurred to help the games be higher scoring of late. First, Charlotte is clearly playing faster again. This team had a bottom five tempo without them on the floor, but with these guys Charlotte is playing in the top 12 teams in terms of tempo. Second, their offensive efficiency has gone up.

Denver is playing at a league average pace, and the Nuggets are an above average offense even without Jamaal Murray on the court. The Nuggets should be able to create many scoring chances near the basket here. 

Charlotte's games are being totaled too low right now in my opinion. This team has scored 107 points or more in 7 of their last 10 games. They have had 4 of their last 5 games finish at 219 points or higher. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Lakers are expected to be without LeBron James here. They are without Dennis Schroder as well. We all know what James means to this team. Offensively, Schroder is a force as well. His defense is subpar and his backups are better defensively than him. Kyle Kuzma is doubtful for this game as well. 

Anthony Davis is a great first option scoring wise, but he isn't 100 percent healthy, and he really doesn't have anyone helping with the load here. The Lakers are short on scoring options right now.

Phoenix has been shooting extremely well of late, but the Lakers rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the year. The Lakers should give a good effort on defense here since every game means a ton to them when it comes to the playoff standings.

Late season regular season games between two playoff bound teams have been great to the under in the long run. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Clippers host the New York Knicks in a very early game in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon. These early Sunday afternoon games have been great for under bettors through the years. That trend is even stronger when the game is being played on the West Coast. 

The Clippers have played at the slowest pace in the NBA in the last five games. The Knicks have the slowest pace for the year as a whole. The first game they played against each other was played to just 93 possessions, but both teams shot the lights out. 

A game played at 93 possessions could see 1.16 and 1.15 points per possession and still stay under this total. That is above average shooting in the NBA overall. 

Rondo has slowed the pace down some for the Clippers, and he has really helped their defense. 

These two teams are both above average on the defensive boards. 

Take the under in this Sunday afternoon contest. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays start Tyler Glasnow here. Glasnow's advanced metrics actually look better now than they did a year ago. His spin rates are even better than he had in his amazing 2019 season. Glasnow also has a whiff rate in the 94th percentile (Baseball Savant) compared to 71 percent in 2019 and 83 percent last year. 

Frankie Montas is a more inconsistent pitcher, but the Rays offense isn't particularly strong either. Montas has held Tampa Bay to a .278 wOBA in limited action against them. 

Glasnow has held Oakland to a .240 wOBA in his limited action against them.

It's important to note that Doug Eddings will be the home plate umpire here. Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage in baseball in the last five years. For two pitchers who have very high strikeout rates, but can sometimes struggle with walks, Eddings should help a lot.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers are 9-1 to the under in their last 10. The Clippers have played at easily the slowest pace in the NBA in their last three games. Their last 3 games have averaged 91.5 possessions. No one else in the NBA is slower than 95 possessions in that time. 

The Lakers are without LeBron James and Dennis Schroder here. LeBron is clearly their best offensive player. Schroder ranks as their third most efficient player on offense (but he has been weak defensively) behind only James and Anthony Davis.

The Lakers have consistently struggled to get open looks against the Clippers in the last couple years. I wouldn't expect that to improve without James and Schroder here.

The Lakers have been playing excellent defense. They rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the season. 

This game is important to both teams who are fighting for position in the playoff standings in the Western Conference.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers offense has looked a little better the last couple games (though they did only have 3 until extra innings on Wednesday), but this is arguably the worst offense in baseball. Detroit has scored 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 13 games. 

Nate Eovaldi is the Red Sox ace, and with Boston coming off a tough loss last night I expect Eovaldi to pitch well here against this overmatched Detroit lineup. Eovaldi has multiple plus pitches with solid command of each. The Tigers have a hard time stringing together hits.

Boston's offense continues to carry a high BABIP which suggests regression to the mean is likely in the long run. Spencer Turnbull does a good job keeping the ball down and he has been consistently solid the last few seasons for Detroit. 

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brandon Woodruff continues to be one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball. Woodruff has consistently been absolutely blowing away lineup after lineup. It hasn't been an easy slate of offenses he has faced, but he has made it look easy.

Zack Wheeler is clearly an above average starter. He's against a Brewers lineup that is badly shorthanded right now. The Phillies offense will likely be without Bryce Harper again here as well. 

The wind here calls for 10 mph in from center field. This is a get away day game where both teams are likely to sit out a player or two from their recent normal rosters.

The under is 8-0 in the Brewers last 8 as a road favorite. The under is 5-0 in Woodruff's last 5 as a road favorite.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Phoenix Suns have the slowest pace of any team in the NBA in their last five games. The Suns have been extremely efficient on offense, but their shooting numbers should regress to season averages over time. They have averaged 1.25 points per possession in their last five games. On the season, they are slightly below 1.17 points per possession.

Atlanta's defense has been much better since their coaching change. The Hawks have played much slower as well. Atlanta ranks 23rd in the NBA in tempo in their last five games. This should be a slow paced contest.

Phoenix and Atlanta both rank in the top five in the NBA in 3 point defense. In one game you never know what can happen, but we should expect the 3 pointers in this game to be at least well contested. 

Without very good shooting numbers, this one projects as a game that stays below this total because of the pace of play.

Both of these teams have plenty to play for, so I expect the defenses to be giving a lot of effort.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* To say that this Detroit offense is bad is an understatement. The Tigers have been shut out in 3 of their last 4 games. Detroit has scored 2 runs or less in 9 of their last 11 games. This a terrible lineup from top to bottom.

Nick Pivetta has been very solid this year. Pivetta still walks too many guys, but Detroit is 28th in the majors in walk rate. Pivetta does have good stuff to rack up strikeouts, and Detroit is first in the majors in strikeouts this year. 

Michael Fulmer has been serviceable this season. He's done a good job limiting the big innings. The Red Sox offense is due for some regression over time. Their batting average on balls in play is the second highest in the majors.

Fenway Park plays as an under venue with wind blowing in and cool temperatures. The temperature will be in the upper 40's with wind blowing in at 5 or 6 mph here. The under is 31-19 in the last 50 at Fenway with any wind blowing in and a temperature of 50 or lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Chi Chi Gonzalez and Merill Kelly both have major blowup potential. These are two guys who let a lot of runners on base on a consistent basis. Gonzalez has been fortunate this year with his ERA. According to Baseball Savant, Gonzalez has an xERA that ranks in the 16th percentile. His K percentage is in the 7th percentile. This is a guy who is capable of getting hit around in a big way at any point.

Merrill Kelly's xERA is 10th percentile and his K percentage is only 9th percentile. Kelly has been knocked around by this Rockies lineup in the past. 

These are two weak bullpens who have been overworked in the last few games. Now, they have starters going who are unlikely to work deep into the game. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jose Berrios has been dealing of late. Berrios has a 3.04 ERA on the year and a stellar 2.21 FIP. Berrios has always been much better when pitching at home. His career wOBA allowed at home is just .286. 

Brad Keller has pitched poorly much of this year, but it will help him to have one of the best under umpires in the majors behind home plate here. 

Phil Cuzzi has a 55.6% under rate in his games behind home plate in his career (459 games). Cuzzi has a very high K/BB ratio. 

The wind here should be factor. Winds of 12-14 mph with gusts to 20 mph are forecast to be blowing in from center and left field during this game.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have now played 13 games at home this year. Only two of those games have gone under this total. 

Luis Castillo hasn't been the same pitcher this year. Every metric you look at he simply hasn't been the same as in recent years. There is something wrong with Castillo. I don't know if it is an injury or a bad release point or what, but the differences are drastic. 

Here is a look at a few select stats from Castillo in the last 3 years according to Baseball Savant. On these they are ranked by percentile with 100 percent being the best and 0 the worst.

K Rate- 2019- 81% 2020- 83% 2021- 13%

Average Exit Velocity- 2019- 83% 2020- 87% 2021- 35%

xERA- 2019- 85% 2020- 88% 2021- 33%

The Cubs have been very unfortunate in batted ball luck and their offense should improve with time this season.

Zach Davies has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year. Davies has more walks than strikeouts in his first five starts. Davies has gone 4 innings or less in four of his five starts (the last 4). He has a 9.47 ERA and a xERA of 6.20. This Reds offense has been great at home.

Both bullpens are weak and they were used a lot last night. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Target Field is a place where you want to know the weather report. When the wind is blowing out at least 8 mph during the game the over is 74-49 in the last 123 contests. That will be the case for this game. 

Tom Hallion is the umpire behind the plate here, and he has called a far lower percentage of pitches a strike than most umpires so he helps the over here.

Danny Duffy has been good so far this year, but he is clearly due for regression. This is a guy who is past the peak of his career and he has a 0.39 ERA and a xERA of 3.98 this year.

Minnesota's lineup is getting healthier and this team is clearly going to be better offensively than they have been on the season as a whole thus far.

Shoemaker has been a good pitcher late in the season in his career, but in the early going he often struggles. He does have some trouble with the long ball and the wind blowing out here is an issue for him.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The number one and number two teams in the Western Conference playoff standings meet up tonight in Phoenix. 

Utah will be without both Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell. Mitchell is a huge loss on the offensive end. Though Utah made 64% of their shots and put up a massive number on Sacramento (no defense) in their last game, the Jazz still are at only 1.139 points per possession in their last 8 games. Before last game, their offensive numbers were way down without Mitchell. On the other side, Utah has actually been better on defense without Mitchell. 

Phoenix and Utah have met twice in the regular season. Neither of the two games have been even close to this total at the end of regulation (last game went into OT). 

This fits a great late season angle- two teams above 60% win percentage on the season playing against each other. These have been 57.5% to the under over a very large sample size.

This game means a lot to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds have played 12 games at home this year. They have only had two of those games finish under this posted total. 

The weather in this game calls for winds of 13 or 14 mph blowing out during this game. That certainly is a help. 

The Chicago Cubs got Bryant and Baez back in the lineup yesterday, and they put up a big number against Atlanta. Chicago is last in the majors in batting average on balls in play, which means they are clearly due for positive regression as an offense. 

Wade Miley isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't great either. The Cubs do have quite a few guys who are noted for being good against left handed pitching.

Jake Arrieta is expected to start for the Cubs, and he is a clear negative regression candidate. Arrieta has a 2.57 ERA and a xERA of 4.08. His strand rate of runners is too high now, and he isn't generating many swings and misses. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* Dane Dunning is a good young pitcher. Dunning had a 3.97 ERA and 3.67 xERA last year for the White Sox. He has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.31 xERA this year (a 2.46 FIP). Dunning has a career swinging strike rate of a solid 10.7%. 

Alex Cobb isn't a great pitcher by any means at this stage of his career, but he isn't bad. His advanced metrics show he has been unlucky this season so far. Cobb has a 6.28 ERA and a 3.81 xERA and a 2.53 FIP. 

Dunning is up against a good Angels lineup, but he'll be helped by this ballpark being a really good pitchers park. This stadium is now one of the five best pitcher parks in the majors. It has really suppressed runs last year and so far this season.

Cobb is up against a weak Texas lineup. The Rangers often struggle to string together hits because they just don't have any lineup depth.

Brian O'Nora is a solid under umpire and he is behind the dish here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals is a mess without Juan Soto. Soto is out for this game. Trea Turner was injured last game as well and he is questionable. If he's out the Nationals are arguably out their top two offensive players. 

Toronto is going with a bullpen game here. The Blue Jays have a deep bullpen. They rank in the top six or eight in the majors in advanced metrics across the board. 

Washington has been shut out in two of their last three games. They have scored 2 runs or less in six of their last ten games. 

Max Scherzer starts for the Nationals here. He has been very solid in the early going this season. Scherzer still has elite stuff and the Blue Jays are a team that strikes out quite a bit because they go after a lot of bad pitches. Scherzer should be able to strike out a lot of hitters here.

The under has hit at a little better than 55% in interleague games with a total of 8.5 or higher in the past ten years.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Brady Singer and Matt Boyd both pitched great on Saturday and the final was just 2-1 when these teams met. I think this one will be higher scoring. 

The winds have switched around in a big way for this contest. Comerica Park is one where the weather plays a large role. With winds blowing out, this has been a really good over ballpark. The wind is expected to average about 13 mph out toward left and center field during this game. 

Danny Duffy has a 0.50 ERA this year, but his xERA is 4.33 and his xFIP is 4.04. Duffy has given up a bunch of home runs in recent seasons, and the ball should be flying pretty well here. The Tigers lineup has a .316 batting average and a .380 OBP against him.

Michael Fulmer has looked better this year, but I still don't see him as better than a mediocre pitcher. The Tigers bullpen might be the worst in the majors. The Kansas City lineup is certainly improved, and they should have plenty of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks have been red hot from the floor of late. New York is only a mediocre offensive team though, and I think they will regress to the mean. The Knicks are averaging 1.21 points per possession in their last five games. On the year, they are averaging 1.099 points per possession. 

Toronto will be without Chris Boucher here, and he has been red hot of late. Boucher is tied with Pascal Siakim as their highest rated offensive player on the season. Their offense takes a big hit without him. Freddie Gillespie will get a lot of the minutes at power forward. Gillespie is one of the lowest rated offensive players on this roster, but he rates better defensively than Boucher on the season.

The Knicks rate 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season. They also rank as the slowest paced team in the league.

This is a pretty high total for a Knicks game. An early start on a weekend helps the under in the long run as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Keeping an eye on batting average on balls in play is important at this stage of the season. This can be a really good measure of which offenses are getting fortunate or unfortunate. 

Which two teams rank as the most unfortunate in batting average on balls in play so far this year? The Yankees and the Indians. Here these two teams are matched up against each other. 

We have two lefties on the mound here. Jordan Montgomery has a career 5.03 ERA on the road. His weighted on base average allowed on the road is an ugly .334. 

Logan Allen has questionable control and that is something that makes me want to bet lower overs with. Allen works himself into too many jams. 

These two have good bullpens, but the starters are subpar. The offenses have been unlucky so far this year. This total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins offense isn't the same without Kepler, Garlick, and Simmons in the lineup. They are on the COVID 19 list right now. Minnesota has scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 7 seven games. In the other two games in that span they scored 3 and 4 runs. This lineup is struggling badly right now.

Frankie Montas has allowed only a .309 weighted on base average at home in his career compared to .344 on the road. Montas has a 3.92 ERA in the first half of the season in his career compared to a 5.29 ERA in the second half. 

Kenta Maeda is a consistent pitcher, and he has been good when his teams are struggling in the past. Maeda has a 3.40 ERA in the 1st half of the second and a 4.29 ERA in the 2nd half. Maeda has been very good so far this year. His command is excellent.

These two played a doubleheader yesterday and I think some starters will get a day off here on get away day. 

The under is 6-0 in Maeda's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 following a loss by his team in their previous game. The under is 4-0 in Montas' last 4 vs. a team from the AL Central.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Harvey looked terrible in 2019 and 2020. He's looked slightly better in 2021 in the early going, but he still has a terrible 6.9% swinging strike rate. Harvey has gotten a lot of swings out of the zone in the early going, but I think that will come back to earth going forward. Harvey isn't a good pitcher at this stage of his career.

Nick Neidert might be good in the future, but he hasn't been good so far. He has serious control problems. He also has a whiff rate in the 7th percentage of pitchers in the majors according to Baseball Savant. His xERA is 8.62 this season. Neidert can't be trusted either.

These two offenses have been inconsistent, but this is a low total for these two pitchers. Remember, both of these bullpens behind the starters are weak as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox travel to Cleveland for a big divisional game on Tuesday evening. 

Carlos Rodon pitched a no hitter the last time out against the Indians. I'm certainly not expecting him to be as dominant here, but I think he will pitch well again. Rodon didn't throw a ridiculous amount of pitches in his no hitter (114). Many of the pitchers who have struggled in their next start threw 125 pitches or more in that no hitter. Additionally, Cleveland is one of the worst offenses in baseball (bottom 5). They have struggled with left handed pitching for several years in a row. Rodon has better road numbers in his career vs. at home. 

Zach Plesac was blasted last time out by the White Sox, but I expect better from him here. Plesac has allowed only a .272 OBP at home in his career. Plesac gives up a lot of fly balls, but that isn't a terrible thing given the weather conditions for this game.

The temperature is expected to drop into the upper 30's during this game. The winds are expected to be blowing in from center field at 10-15 mph. The wind does matter quite a bit in Cleveland.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres start Joe Musgrove here. Musgrove has thrown 19 innings and allowed only 7 hits and one run so far this year. He has 2 walks and 24 strikeouts. Musgrove has been better in March/April than any other month of the season in his career, and it isn't even close. 

The Milwaukee lineup isn't great to begin with, but with Christian Yelich injured they are even weaker. The Padres have the best bullpen in the National League to back up Musgrove as well. It should be tough for Milwaukee's offense in this one.

The Padres lineup isn't totally healthy either. They are up against a top 10 pitcher in the big leagues here in Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff has elite strikeout stuff and has very solid control as well. San Diego has scored 3 runs or less in half of their games so far this season.

Two good bullpens and two excellent starters.

The under is 9-0 in Woodruff's last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in San Diego's last 6 as a home favorite. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under*  The Cleveland Indians have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Cleveland does still have a very good pitching staff. In fact, 11 of Cleveland’s first 15 games have stayed under this low total. 

Cincinnati has scored a bunch of runs this year. However, the Reds have unsustainable numbers when it comes to batting average on balls in play, and offensive production with runners in scoring position. The Reds will face one of the top three pitchers in all of baseball here. Shane Bieber is a strikeout machine, and he still has amazing control. Mike Moustakas has missed the last two games and is considered doubtful for this game due to an illness. 

Wade Miley will pitch for the Reds. In 2021, Miley has allowed only 4 hits in 11 innings pitched and has yet to allow a run this season. The Indians have struggled against left handed pitching for several years and now they are without Francisco Lindor. 

Ben May is the home plate umpire here, and he has consistently called more strikes than the league average.

Take the under.

*4 Star NBA Game of the Week* The first time these two teams played this year the Lakers won 96-95. Of course the Lakers had LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the floor for that game. What has changed for the Lakers without those guys? The biggest change has been their offensive efficiency has gotten much worse. 

The Lakers on the season are averaging 1.098 points per possession. They are averaging just 1.031 points per possession in the 14 games since LeBron went down with an injury. Their defensive efficiency has actually been slightly better in that time.

Boston struggled badly on defense for much of the year, but Brad Stevens finally has this team working much harder on defense of late. The Celtics rank fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Lakers rank first in defensive efficiency in that span.

The first game these two played was just 93.5 possessions. That is an extremely slow pace. The Celtics have slowed their tempo in recent games and the Lakers have played slower since adding Drummond. 

The Lakers have had 11 of their last 14 games go under this total. Four of the Celtics last six games have finished at 202 points or fewer.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves have a top five offense in the majors. They started the year slowly, but they have been rounding into form of late. Atlanta has a very low .241 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That is 27th in the majors and there is positive regression coming for Atlanta in the batted balls area.

Miami ranks 19th in batting average on balls in play. The Marlins don't have a great offense by any means, but it is good enough. They looked great on Tuesday and I think they'll have some chances in this one too.

Atlanta's bullpen is way down from where it was a year ago. They lost their top two relievers from last year and that is going to hurt quite a bit. It will force them to win more high scoring games.

Neidert starts for the Marlins and his minor league numbers are very mediocre. He has control problems and I don't trust guys who enter the big leagues with control problems, especially against really good lineups.

Alfonso Marquez is the umpire here. The over is a whopping 36-13 in his last 49 games behind the plate. It isn't just a fluke either, his strikes called percentage is the lowest in the majors during that time.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Reds offense may be better this year, but they aren't nearly as improved as they have looked so far this year. The Reds have a ridiculous .449 OBP with men in scoring position so far this year. The team in third in OBP with men in scoring position is at .388 so far this year. Regression is coming for the Reds. They are also in a pitcher friendly park here. 

Luis Castillo had a bad start in game one of the season, but he bounced back with a great start in game two. He is still a very good pitcher, and I expect a nice season from him. 

Kevin Gausman has really reinvented himself with the Giants. Gausman has always had a great splitter, but his secondary pitches have been much better of late. His swinging strike rate is excellent and this Reds team has several guys who are going to strike out a lot.

There were only 7 hits in their game last night. This one should be another low scoring contest.

The under is 8-0 in the Giants last 8 games. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Shane Bieber is a top five pitcher in the majors. Lucas Giolito is a top six or seven pitcher in the majors. These are two guys with multiple elite pitches and excellent command.

The Indians have a bottom five offense in baseball. While the White Sox do have a good offense, it isn't as good now with Jimenez out of the lineup. Both of these pitchers are great at missing bats, and the ball isn't flying as well in Chicago now with temperatures in the upper 40's during this game. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this game. Miller has been one of the two or three best under umpires in the majors in his career. He has consistently rung up batters at a much higher rate than average. If Bieber and Giolito are consistently getting the edges called more than normal here, we could see a very high strikeout total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Cubs offense has been terrible this year. They won't be this bad all year, but they have some awful numbers against Brandon Woodruff and I think it will be hard for them to turn it around here. 

Kyle Hendricks has been a steady strong performer for the Cubs for many years and I expect the same from him again this year. Hendricks doesn't give up many free passes and he limits hard contact.

While sometimes too much can be made of batter vs. pitcher numbers, I do pay attention when there is a large sample size. Both of these pitchers have shut down the opposition. 

Hendricks has allowed a .192 batting average and a .228 weighted on base average against this Brewers lineup in 172 at bats. Woodruff has allowed a .158 batting average and a .240 wOBA against this Cubs lineup in 95 at bats. 

Mike Estabrook is the home plate umpire here and he is a top ten under umpire in the majors.

The under is 45-17-1 in the last 63 meetings between the Cubs and the Brewers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lakers take on the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Monday night. The Lakers are coming off one of their best wins of the year. They defeated the Nets as a big underdog. The fact that they did it without LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Kyle Kuzma is really impressive. The Knicks are coming off an OT win over Memphis and a tight win at home against Toronto. Both teams are in pretty good form.

These two teams have been doing it with defense of late. The Lakers rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Knicks rank second. 

The Lakers rank 27th in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the last ten games. The Knicks rank 25th. 

This is a very low total in today's NBA, but it is low for a good reason. Only two of the Knicks last 9 games have gone over this low total. The Lakers have only had one game finish higher than 214 points in their last 9 contests despite playing some very good offenses in that span (Nets, Clippers, Bucks, 76ers). 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies start German Marquez here. Marquez has really struggled at Coors Field in the past few seasons, but he has been great away from home. Marquez has a stellar 0.99 WHIP and a 3.42 ERA on the road since the start of the 2019 season. In 3 starts at Oracle Park in San Francisco (20 innings pitched) he has a 1.35 ERA. Marquez has fantastic control, and he should pitch well here.

Anthony DeSclafani starts here for the Giants. The Rockies offense is far weaker than it has been in recent season. Colorado perennially finishes in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. They might finish in the bottom three this year. This is a weak offense. DeSclafani looked good in his first start and pitching in Oracle Park should help him.

The under is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 as an underdog. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* If you are looking for an over in Major League Baseball, you won't find a better umpire to have behind the home plate than Alfonso Marquez. Marquez is behind the dish for this game. 

The over went 25-8 in Marquez's games behind the plate in 2019. The over was 9-5 in his games last year. The over is 1-0 in his games this year. It isn't just that the games are going over though. Marquez has the lowest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the league in the last three seasons. 

Ian Anderson and Zach Eflin are both young pitchers with a lot of potential, but they face very good lineups here. I think both the Phillies and Braves are top eight offenses in the majors. The Braves haven't looked like it so far this year, but they will turn things around. 

Both Philly and Atlanta have very deep lineups. The guys at the bottom of the order are very capable of hurting you.

The Phillies bullpen is some better this year, but it is definitely still a relative weakness. The Braves bullpen is worse after they lost Greene and Melancon. 

The Braves offensive struggles out of the gate have this number set too low. Marquez being behind the plate is a nice bonus.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mets start Jacob Degrom here. Degrom has been dominant everywhere, but he has been especially amazing when pitching at home and in day games. How good has he been?

Degrom has an ERA of 1.94 in his last 40 starts at Citi Field. He has a WHIP of 0.889 or lower in each of his last three seasons at home. He has an ERA of 1.63 or lower in day games in all but three of his seasons in the majors. He has an ERA of 2.25 or lower in all but one year in the majors in day games.

He is at Citi Field here with cool conditions against a weak Marlins offense. I would expect a great showing from Degrom.

Trevor Rogers has very good stuff and he is a lefty with potential for the Marlins. The Mets have a lineup that should hit right handers better than lefties this year, as they did a year ago. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* When two good teams play each other late in the NBA season, I always want to take an initial look at the under. This one is one I have to play because of the spot.

Phoenix is coming off a huge win over the Jazz last night. The Suns really slowed the pace of that game down. They have shown to prefer a slow pace this year overall. 

The Clippers rank 26th in the NBA in tempo in their last 10 games. They also rank fifth in defensive efficiency. This team has really turned things up on the defensive end of late. 

Phoenix ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency during that period. 

Both of these teams are good offensively, but with the pace I expect this to be played at they would need to shoot a very high percentage to get past the total.

In a key game between two high quality teams, I'll take the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics no longer have a dominant bullpen. Oakland starts Cole Irvin here, and I don't think he is a big league level starting pitcher. Irvin was hit hard by Houston in his first start and I think Houston has a lot of success again here. 

Houston scored 8 runs or more in each of the four games in Oakland in their 4-0 sweep. All four of those games went over the total. This Astros lineup is better than they showed last year, and I think they'll be one of the best in baseball this year.

Javier is only a mediocre pitcher for the Astros. Oakland's lineup is at least league average. The Athletics have a brutal .224 batting average on balls in play so far this year. That is bound to positively regress toward the mean.

If they do leave the roof open here (probable) the wind is blowing out 11 mph at gametime. That is a nice bonus.

The over is 6-0 in the last 6 games between these two teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the best players in all of baseball. The Padres lineup is still pretty good without him, but there is a significant drop off. He is the real catalyst for this lineup.

Kevin Gausman pitched very well last year for the Giants. Gausman has improved his command and sequencing. While he isn't a top pitcher by any means, he is a solid option.

Blake Snell is capable of dominating at any time. Snell moved from the AL to the NL and being in a pitcher's park he should have some very nice numbers this year. This Giants lineup is weaker than league average. Snell is backed up by an amazing Padres bullpen that has great depth.

I would have thought the under was a decent play with Tatis Jr in the lineup, and without him I think this number is too high. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Gonzaga and UCLA shot lights out in the Final 4. Baylor's defense has been tremendous in the NCAA Tournament. The Bears likely know they need to win this game with their defense. 

Gonzaga and Baylor rank number one and number two in offensive efficiency. There isn't anything negative I can say about these two offenses. The equalizer is how high this totals number is and how big of a game this is for both teams. 

As a general rule, the under has fared better in big games on neutral courts. This is the biggest game of the year and it is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium with a tough shooting backdrop. 

Could these teams nail a bunch of shots and go over this total? Of course they could. With the high stakes and this high of a total though, I have to side with the under. History is on the side of the under in this situation. 

Even Baylor's game against Arkansas (a very fast paced team) only got to 153 points despite great shooting from both teams. Gonzaga's matchups with Oklahoma, Creighton, and USC all went under this number.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers are averaging only 1.01 points per possession without LeBron James in the lineup this year. That is drastically lower than their 1.14 points per possession with him in the lineup. The Lakers are still excellent on defense without LeBron. In fact, the Lakers rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency allowing only 1.03 points per possession in their last seven games. 

The Clippers play at the third slowest pace in the NBA in their last seven games. The Clippers are also improving on the defensive end of late. They rank 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in that period. 

The Lakers just shot lights out from 3 point range in their win over the Kings in their last game. They are unlikely to be able to keep that up against a much more respectable defense in the Clippers. 

The Lakers have seen 7 of their last 8 games finish with 210 points or lower. The Clippers have seen 3 of their last 5 games finish with 199 points or lower. 

This is an early start on the West Coast and it is a rivalry game between division opponents.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Indians offense is one of the bottom five in the majors. Tarik Skubal has a lot of promise for the Tigers. He has multiple plus pitchers where he'll be able to generate a lot of swings and misses. The Indians are likely to struggle against left handers even more than right handers this year as well.

Aaron Civale is a guy I really like. Civale limits hard contact and has elite control. Civale averaged less than 2 walks per nine innings a year ago. He has raised his velocity in the Spring this year, and I think he has some nice upside. 

Detroit's offense is one of the worst in baseball as well. This is a lineup full of guys who swing and miss a lot. It is tough for them to string together big innings.

The weather is still cool and there is little wind in the forecast for this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins deserve a lot of credit for having gotten this far. This team was down double digits in the first half against Michigan State in the First Four. It's hard to believe that they rolled into the Final 4 by beating Alabama and Michigan in back to back games. They were able to turn the Alabama and Michigan games into much lower scoring games than expected. UCLA will try hard to slow the pace down here. Can they do it? I think Gonzaga will still push the tempo quite a bit, but I do think UCLA does a better job slowing the pace than USC did in the last round.

Gonzaga now ranks fifth in the nation in defensive efficiency. While their offense gets all the credit (and it is awesome), this Gonzaga defense has looked very good as well. The Bulldogs have showed in each of their last two games that if they get a large lead they will definitely grind the pace down to a halt in the last six minutes or so of the contest. Since the spread sits at 14, there is a real chance this is one of those games where Gonzaga slows things down a lot late.

In the NCAA Tournament, betting the under in a game with a large spread has been a great long term betting system. 

This game is being played at Lucas Oil Stadium and the shooting backdrop in a huge football stadium like this can be very difficult. The under has done well here in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Zack Wheeler had a really solid season for the Phillies last year. Wheeler induced a lot of soft contact on the season. He doesn't give up many free passes either. 

Charlie Morton's velocity was up a lot in Spring Training. That's a great sign for a guy who was really good for several years in Tampa Bay. He had a down year last year, but I think he should bounce back this year.

Doug Eddings is the umpire here and he is the best under umpire in the majors. His called strike percentages are consistently the highest in the majors. 

Take the under here on a chilly day in Philly. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sacramento Kings beat the LA Lakers 123-120 a month ago. There were some extremely good shooting numbers on that night. Sacramento shot 60% from the floor. The Lakers shot 53% from the floor. The pace in the game was just 95.5 possessions. The two teams averaged a whopping 1.281 and 1.263 points per possession in that game. 

The Lakers offense has been a hot mess of late. I do realize the Kings have a weak defense and the Lakers could look a bit better here offensively. Still, this is a really high total for a Lakers game right now. The Lakers ranks second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency since LeBron went down to an injury. They also rank fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Lakers have seen only one of their last seven games go above 210 points.

Sacramento has played a bit slower of late, and their defense has been just a touch better. The Kings rank 15th in the NBA in tempo in their last seven games.

This is a divisional game and divisional games have gone under the total 53% of the time from game 42 on in the regular season.

I think the Lakers keep this game a bit lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The word from Spring Training is this year the baseball is a bit more "dead" than it was a year ago. Many are expecting a bit less in the way of scoring. 

Kenta Maeda broke out last year in a big way. Maeda had a 2.70 ERA and a 2.63 xFIP on the season. The Twins pitching coaches helped him with his sequencing a lot. 

Brandon Woodruff might be a top ten starter in the majors at this point. He is at least a top 15 guy. Woodruff has a great swinging strike rate, and he still has a low walk rate. 

The Twins have an above average bullpen. The Brewers have a top four bullpen in baseball. 

I see a low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs meet the USC Trojans and the winner will head to the Final 4. 

Gonzaga has been tremendous all season on offense. There isn't anything negative I can say about the Bulldogs offense. They are extremely balanced and talented. They are up against by far the best defense they have faced so far this year in this contest though. 

USC has been mixing in a lot of zone of late. Andy Enfield's team ranks first in the nation in 2 point defense (Gonzaga is 1st in 2 point offense). The Trojans have two great frontcourt defenders in the Mobley's. This will make Gonzaga work much harder for their points in the paint than they are accustomed to. The Bulldogs are still going to score quite a few, but I think USC can slow them down at least some.

USC's offense isn't as good as they have looked in the last two games. The Trojans are 21/35 from 3 point range in their last two games. This is a team that shot a little less than 36% from 3 point range in the regular season. 

USC has to know that they have a much better chance of winning this game if they slow down the pace. Enfield is a good coach so I trust him to try to have his team control the pace at least to some degree. 

USC is 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga is 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

This game is played at Lucas Oil Stadium which is clearly a plus for the under. 

In the NCAA Tournament- games with a spread of 6 or more and a total of 138.5 or higher are 147-105 to the under (58.3%) in the last 15 years. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The USC Trojans defense has been elite this year. USC is first in the nation in 2 point field goal percentage defense. Evan Mobley is an absolute force in the paint on defense. USC is still underrated by many people on the defensive end in my opinion. 

Oregon's Dana Altman is a tremendous defensive coach. He can game plan to play his matchup zone or even a 1-3-1 or man to man to keep the offense guessing. He is likely to bring out the full court press here, but it is a full court press that actually tends to slow the pace down and make the opponent work very hard to find an open shot.

Oregon ran up and down the court with Iowa. The Ducks haven't done that on many occasions. The fact that they nearly put 100 on Iowa has this total inflated by a few points. 

The first time these two played it was 72-58 and played to a slow pace of 62 possessions. This game means a ton and I think that will lead to strong defense and careful offensive possessions for the two teams. The fact that these two teams know each other so well also lends itself to a defensive minded game.

This should be a great matchup between two really good coaches. Expect open shots to be tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* What do the Charlotte Hornets look like without LaMelo Ball compared to with him? The Hornets rank 12th in the NBA in tempo for the season overall. In their last four games they rank 29th (second to last) in the NBA in tempo. They have clearly slowed things down, which makes a lot of sense because Ball is great in transition and they definitely miss him in the open floor.

Phoenix ranks 24th in the NBA in tempo on the season. The Suns are 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. This is a team that is capable of scoring plenty, but their defense is often underrated. 

Sunday has been the best "under" day in the NBA for the past decade, and it isn't even close. This is an early start time (very early for Phoenix especially), and the early starts have been good under bets through the years as well.

The under is 4-0 in the Suns last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-2 in the Hornets last 7 Sunday games. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange are 29/58 from 3 point range in the NCAA Tournament thus far. Syracuse is just 35% from 3 point range on the season. Houston has ranked 1st, 8th, and 12th at defending beyond the 3 point line in the past three years. Kelvin Sampson's team should have a good game plan for really contesting Buddy Boeheim and company's long range jumpers here.

Houston plays at a very slow pace. They rank 325th in the country. The Cougars are a good offensive team, but they aren't quite as good offensively with DeJon Jarreau hobbled. He is a real playmaker for this team. The Syracuse zone is different than anything Houston has seen this year, and I do think it will give them trouble here. 

Syracuse has played noticeably slower in their last five games than they did earlier in the season. Houston wants to play slowly. I think the pace here is a pretty slow one. It will take some good shooting numbers to get past this. Both defenses are very solid.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Baylor Bears defense started out the season well, but they have tailed off badly throughout the last 10 or 12 games. Baylor is still very good defensively if they can force a lot of turnovers. This team thrives on forcing their opposition to waste possessions. Villanova ranks first in the country in turnover percentage according to KenPom. While Gillespie is out for Villanova, they have done a great job taking care of the basketball in the last four games without him as well.

Robinson-Earl is a tremendous weapon for Jay Wright. Baylor's weakness is their post defense. Expect Villanova to get Robinson-Earl a ton of touches in the paint area and put a lot of pressure on this Baylor defense.

Villanova's defense ranks 221st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defenses. This is the worst Villanova defense since 2008. Baylor is an extremely efficient offensive machine. The Bears rank 3rd in both offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage offense. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Baylor put up a big number here. Villanova has really struggled to defend the 3 point line this year, and Baylor is the best three point shooting team in the nation.

This one has the potential to be a foul fest late with a spread of 7 points. The offenses are much better than the defenses here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide rank second in the nation in defensive efficiency. Maryland ranks 27th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Terrapins rank 7th in the nation in defensive efficiency since the start of February though. Both of these teams are far better on the defensive end than the offensive end. 

Alabama ranks 9th in the nation in tempo and that kind of pace is certainly a concern with taking unders, but this is a tough matchup for the Alabama offense. Alabama wants to run and score in transition. Maryland ranks in the top 15 percent of teams in the nation in transition defense. 

Alabama's offense has been trending in the wrong direction of late. They rank 73rd in the nation in offensive efficiency during that time. They rank 39th for the year overall.

Maryland's tempo has drastically slowed late in the year. They rank 319th in the nation in tempo. Maryland likes to shoot a lot of shots from beyond the arc, but Alabama has held opponents to 28.5% from long range on the season.

Maryland has seen 13 of their last 15 games stay under this total. Despite their tempo, Alabama has seen 4 of their last 7 games stay under this total.

Both defenses are tough matchups for the opposing offense here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers slow the tempo down as much as possible. Look for them to work hard to make this a halfcourt game. Oregon State has been playing a lot of zone defense lately, and when you are slowing down a game playing zone makes a lot of sense especially when the opponent is a team like Oklahoma State who wants to run as much as possible.

Oklahoma State hasn't seen much zone this year, but they rate in the 15th percentile in zone offense so far this year, so that could be a problem here. On the other end, Oklahoma State is an excellent defensive team, and they have been going zone part of the time lately as well. 

Oklahoma State is not a very good outside shooting team. Oregon State isn't as good offensively as they have looked in their last couple games.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat defense had their single worst performance of the year on Friday night against Indiana. The Pacers absolutely torched them for 20/36 from 3 point range and 137 points. 

Miami is 3rd in points per game allowed on the year. They are second in field goal percentage defense. The Heat are a defense first team, and I expect a bounce back performance on defense here. Miami had allowed 103 points per game or less in eight straight games before that terrible performance on Friday night! 

Miami's Goran Dragic is questionable with a back injury here. Dragic is one of their best offensive players and a questionable defensive player. The Heat also signed Trevor Ariza who is thought of as a solid defensive contributor.

This is an early Sunday game and those have been good for the under in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas Jayhawks defense has been exceptional at the end of this season. Bill Self has talked extensively about how much he loves the way this team has improved on the defensive end of the floor. 

Eastern Washington has been good offensively for much of the year. The Eagles do have a couple impressive players offensively. Still, they aren't accustomed to going up against this kind of athletic defense with a bunch of length. Eastern Washington only scored 52 against Oregon. That is the best defense they have faced this year. Kansas is a much better defense than Oregon on the season. 

Kansas' offensive efficiency is way down this year. The Jayhawks will score on Eastern Washington, but it probably won't be as pretty as you would expect if you think of Kansas as the same team they were a few years ago.

These top seed games where the higher ranked team is a big favorite have gone under at a tremendous rate in the NCAA Tournament in the first round in the past decade.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Florida State Seminoles are favored by 10.5 points here. First round games in the NCAA Tournament with a total of above 138 have gone under the total at a nearly 60% clip in the last decade. This one fits that system.

Florida State is the tallest team in the country. It is extremely hard to get good looks inside the arc against the Seminoles. That's a problem for UNC Greensboro since they shoot 30% from long range and they rely strongly on Miller getting to the basket. Miller is a star point guard, but he is only 6'0 and I think Florida State's length will bother him.

Florida State's offense is hot and cold. If they are nailing a ton of 3's this could certainly lose, but I do think UNC Greensboro's pressure defense could give them some trouble here.

I think both teams are strong defensively and both coaches are good at putting together a good game plan to keep the opposition guessing by switching around defenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Winthrop ranks 8th in the country in tempo. The Eagles are going to push the pace here. They haven't played a really good team all year. Villanova will be the best offense they have faced, even with Villanova without Gillespie at point guard.

Villanova ranks 9th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Yes, they are worse on offense without Gillespie. They still are far better than the teams Winthrop has been up against. This Villanova team is much weaker defensively than they have been in recent seasons as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This game looks like a real slow it down defensive battle. These two teams are both elite on defense, and both of them have real question marks on offense. 

Rutgers is 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency (75th on offense). Clemson is 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency (99th on offense).

Clemson has been a poor team away from home and it has been their offense that has let them down more times than not. 

I would expect a close hard fought contest where the defenses have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* North Texas ranks 350th in the nation in tempo. The Mean Green are extremely deliberate all of the time. This is a team that ranks 20th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense as well. 

Purdue relies heavily on post up offense (more than anyone else in the nation). The Boilermakers have a ton of size and great low post players. Because of this, Purdue is very slow paced as well and they'll use up the shot clock. North Texas is great at post defense. The Mean Green are giving up only 0.80 points per post up which ranks in the top 10 percent of all teams in the country. They should make Purdue work harder than most teams do to score in the low post.

North Texas is reliant on the outside jumper, and Purdue does defend the 3 pretty well. The Mean Green can go through long scoring droughts at times.

This game is played at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is a big football dome where shooting has been a problem in the long run. This is a clear positive for the under on the whole.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys defense will be the best defense Liberty has seen all year. Mike Boynton is underrated as a defensive-minded coach. Liberty scored just 52 at TCU and 60 at Missouri. The Flames are a good offensive team, but they have played a bunch of very weak defenses in the ASun.

Oklahoma State has turnover problems on offense, and that can lead to inefficient offense at times. Liberty's defense is great on the glass. They rank 14th in defensive rebounding percentage in the country.

I fully expect Liberty Coach Ritchie McKay to have a game plan to do their very best to slow this game down to a crawl. Liberty knows they need a halfcourt game and they are excellent in transition defense. They won't go for second chance points much, they will just look to get back.

Liberty has been here before and I think they will make this game tighter than you might think. I do think Oklahoma State's length will bother their shots as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are favored by 25.5 points here. This one should be a very easy matchup for the Bears. Highly seeded teams who are favored by a wide margin have been great under bets in the past 15 years in the NCAA Tournament. I think this makes a lot of sense because the game has virtually no chance of going to overtime and there isn't much of a chance of a late foul fest.

Baylor would be well served here to get ready for their next game which would be tricky against either UNC or Wisconsin. I think they get a big lead and then slow things down some.

Hartford is known as a scrappy tough defensive team, but they have struggled to score on everyone this year. They only scored 53 against Villanova. They had some very low scoring games even against America East competition. Hartford is a one man show (Carter) on offense, and Baylor should have a good game plan for him.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mount St. Mary's plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the nation this year (only Virginia has been slower). The Mountaineers are unlikely to change up their style of play here. This is a team that looks to grind things down to a halt and win with halfcourt offense and offensive rebounds.

Texas Southern has only faced a couple teams this year that really slow things down (Alabama A&M and St. Mary's. St. Mary's shot lights out in TX Southern's loss to them. Mt St. Mary's isn't a good shooting team at all and they are unlikely to be able to do that here. Texas Southern improved a lot on defense this year, and they have several good shot blockers down low. 

Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot. This should be a sloppy game with both teams struggling with efficiency. It wouldn't surprise me to see the winner of this game in the lower 60's. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah Jazz have been money as a road favorite this year. Why? The Jazz have the best defense in the NBA at home, but they are merely mediocre defensively on the road. Utah has allowed 1.158 points per possession in their last 10 road games (that ranks 23rd in the NBA). They are now up against a Boston offense that has been on fire of late. Boston is averaging 1.208 points per possession in their last five games. They have been shooting the ball really well from the outside.

Boston's defense has been non-existent of late. Boston has allowed 1.183 points per possession in their last eight games. That is second worst in the NBA. The Jazz have a high powered offense now, and it is hard to see Utah struggling to score here.

Look for both offenses to have a leg up here.

The over is 5-0 in the Jazz's last 5 as a road favorite. The over is 5-1 in the Celtics last 6 home games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Houston Rockets offense is terrible. Houston is playing without John Wall, Victor Oladipo, P.J. Tucker, Eric Gordon, and Daniel House Jr. The Rockets are averaging 0.952 points per possession in their last five games. No one else in the NBA is averaging worse than 1 point per possession in that time. Have the Rockets played great defenses during that time? Not really. We'll give them the Utah Jazz being a tough defense certainly. The other four games were against: Sacramento, Brooklyn, Cleveland, and Memphis. Three of those teams rank in the bottom eight in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

The Boston Celtics defense has been weak of late, but this is the worst offense they have been up against lately and it isn't even close. Boston should grab a lead here and slow things down. They do prefer to play at a slow tempo compared to the league average. Boston's offense ranks just 19th in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the road. 

Houston's defense has been better at home, but their offense has actually been much worse at home this year than on the road.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have been great defensively at the end of the season. Illinois held Michigan to 53 points in their blowout win on March 2nd. The following game they held Ohio State to 68 points at home. They held Iowa to 71 points yesterday in a game played to 76 possessions. Illinois has been locked in defensively.

Ohio State will want to slow the pace down here. The Buckeyes slowed things down in a big way in their win over Michigan on Saturday. That game was played to just 61 possessions. The Buckeyes are likely to be without Kyle Young (concussion protocol), who actually has their highest offensive rating per KenPom. 

This game is played at Lucas Oil Stadium which is a football dome. These huge football domes have led to a lot of lower shooting percentages over the years and that has held true in this conference tournament season as well.

This is an awfully high total for a game for the Big Ten Championship and a game that is played on a neutral court that is clearly more difficult for shooters.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have played their last two games to 58 and 60 possessions. That's about as slow as you see. Western Kentucky plays slightly slower than average, and the Hilltoppers game against relatively fast paced UAB was only 65 possessions on Friday. 

This is the Conference USA title game. It will be played in Frisco, Texas at the Dallas Cowboys practice stadium. This is a football dome converted over to a makeshift college hoops court for this tournament. The under has been great in this tournament in the last few years and it has done very well again this year on the whole. 

Both of these teams have some turnover problems on offense, and that should be helpful for the under. Though both teams turn it over a lot, neither of the defenses try to push the tempo very much off their forced turnovers. 

These are two teams who don't foul very much, so unless there is a ref show here we shouldn't see too many trips to the line.

Look for a tightly contested game between two teams who know this is their only shot to get to the NCAA Tournament. These final games have tended to go under the total more often than not.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's the Big East Tournament Championship game between Georgetown and Creighton. Creighton is still the good offense they have been in the past, but they are much better on defense than they were in previous seasons. 

Creighton really locked down on UConn in Friday night's semifinal win. Georgetown's offense is too reliant on a couple guards. The Hoyas also rely on getting to the line and knocking down free throws. Both of these defenses rank in the top 50 in the nation in defending without fouling. 

Georgetown tends to go through long droughts offensively. Creighton relies heavily on jump shots and Madison Square Garden is a really tough shooters gym. 

In the long run, Madison Square Garden has arguably been the best under arena in all of college hoops. The shooting percentages here have been consistently been low, and the long term under percentage on a neutral in the postseason is about 60%. Both games in the semifinals went way under the total here on Friday night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays and UConn Huskies met twice in the regular season. Both of those games stayed under the total in regulation. They now go to Madison Square Garden, which has been arguably the single best under arena in college basketball. 

UConn kept running the floor and pouring it on DePaul last night, but they have slowed their pace when they play similar foes. Creighton is a very worthy opponent. I think UConn tries to win this one with their defense, which is the best in the Big East.

Creighton's defense isn't elite, but it is much better this year than it has been in the last couple seasons. They have played several low scoring games against top opponents this year too.

Take the under.