*4 Star Cavs/Celtics NBA Red Hot CASH* The Cleveland Cavs head to Boston looking to closeout the Boston Celtics. The Cavs have dominated this series for the most part, but you have to respect the way Boston has fought very hard the last couple games.

Boston completely changed the way they play when Isaiah Thomas went down with an injury. The Celtics can't try to play quickly without their main offensive guy. Boston has decided to post up Al Horford a lot and try to score in the post or pass it out of the post to get open 3's. The post ups have slowed the tempo of these games down a lot. 

The average tempo in games one and two was 95 possessions per game. In games 3 and 4, the pace was 90.1 possessions per game. That kind of tempo change is drastic, and it makes a posted total of 216 awfully high.

The Cavs are capable of shooting a great percentage from the floor, but they shot nearly 60% from the floor last game and the game still went under the total. The Cavs are averaging 1.20 points per possession and the Celtics are averaging 1.12 points per possession in the last two games. Those are very high efficiency rates on offense. Those are more likely to drop than go up.

Here's a system that backs this under play:

-The spread is between home team -3.5 and +12

-The home teams win percentage is 64% or lower

-The home team in this game lost the previous game by 5 points or more

-The total is 193.5 or higher

-The percentage of bets on the under is 42% or lower

In this situation, the under is a very impressive 41-15 in the last 56 (73.2%). This game fits this situation. 

Take the under.

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jose Berrios has been one of the most highly touted pitching prospects in baseball the last few years. Berrios struggled in his first couple trips to the big leagues, but he has been great this year in a two game sample size.

Berrios had a 1.13 ERA in six starts in Triple A for the Twins this year. He has a 0.59 ERA in two starts in the big leagues so far this year. Improved control has been the biggest key for Berrios.

Chris Tillman isn't a special pitcher, but he isn't bad either. He has a home ERA of 4.01 in his career at Baltimore. The Twins are hitting only .259 off of him in his career. 

The key here is the situation. It's a get away day game with a start of 12:35 pm EST. These are the games where a key player or two usually sits out for some rest. The wind is scheduled to be blowing in from right field here as well at about 10 mph.

At Baltimore, with the wind blowing in the under has been a great play in the past. The under is 126-70 (64.2%) with the wind blowing in at Baltimore. 

Day game unders with the wind blowing in and the total of at least 8.5 are hitting 55.5% in the last 8 years. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It is really rare to see a Clayton Kershaw game at Dodger Stadium with a total of 7. Kershaw and the Dodgers are big favorites once again here. The likelihood of the Dodgers batting only 8 times has to be accounted for here. Kershaw is the most dominant pitcher in the game, and the Cardinals aren't very good against lefties. St. Louis ranks 20th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties.

Lance Lynn has pitched well against the Dodgers in his career. The under is 6-1 in Lynn's last 7 starts against the Dodgers. The under is 5-1 in his six starts at Dodger Stadium.

Overall, the under is an impressive 79-58 in Kershaw's 137 home starts in his career. That's a 57.7% winning percentage. 

When was the last time a Kershaw home start had a total of 7 runs? It was September 28, 2012 against the Rockies. 

Solid value here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez here. Rodriguez was a guy who there were very high expectations for a long time ago, and he struggled a bit in his early time in the majors. He is putting it together this year. Rodriguez hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last six starts. He has a FIP of 3.20 or lower in each of those starts. He is striking out 10.23 batters per nine innings, which is easily the best of his career.

Andrew Triggs has allowed 2 runs or less in six of his eight starts this year. Triggs gets soft contact and uses a deceptive delivery to make things difficult on batters who don't see him on a regular basis.

Yonder Alonso is doubtful for this game for the A's, and he's been the best hitter on the team. The A's offense is 23rd in weighted on base average against lefties in the majors. 

Mike Muchlinski is the umpire here, and that is definitely good for the under. He's a solid under umpire overall. The under is 21-7 in his last 28 Sunday games behind the dish.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* Matt Cain and Adam Wainwright are following similar paths in their careers. Both were excellent pitchers a few years ago, but things have changed in a big way. Interestingly, these both were guys who had great control a few years ago. Now, both of them have doubled their walk rate from about 5 years ago. They are getting less strikeouts and a lot more hard contact.

The Giants offense has been much better on the road than at home. The Giants are 14-7-2 to the over in their road games this year.

The Cardinals are excellent against right handed pitching, and they have a terrible defense that costs them a run or two a game many times. The over is 24-14 for the Cardinals this year. This is an offense that has finally gotten healthy and they should put up a lot of runs this year.

Tom Hallion is the umpire here and he ranks among the bottom 15 in the majors in the past five years in strikes called.

The over is 4-0 in Cain's last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in the Cards last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0 in Wainwright's last 6 starts after the Cardinals score 2 runs or less. The over is 3-0 in Cain's last 4 starts vs. the Cardinals. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays meet on Saturday afternoon in Tampa Bay.

Masahiro Tanaka has allowed 16 runs in his last three outings. Tanaka has allowed 7 home runs in that three game span. He has an ERA more than half a run higher in his career in day games, and this is a day game. 

Matt Andriese is a serviceable pitcher, but he is up against an excellent Yankees lineup. The Yankees are hitting 2.78 and averaging 5.91 runs per game against right handed pitching.

The Rays are quietly hitting the cover off the ball lately. Tampa Bay ranks in the top five in the majors in homers. The Rays are averaging 5.01 runs per game off right handed pitching.

The Rays bullpen is one of the five worst in the majors. The Yankees bullpen isn't nearly as good without a healthy Aroldis Chapman.

The over is 7-0 in the Yankees last 7 vs. the AL East. The over is 6-0 in Tanaka's last 6 following a team loss in their last game. The over is 8-0 in the Rays last 8 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.35 or higher. A 35-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Playoff 100% System SMASHER* The Boston Celtics were trampled over in game one of this series. Boston has a great coach in Brad Stevens, and I think he'll make some key adjustments in game two to make them more competitive. Since Cleveland is a much more talented team than Boston, the Celtics are best served to slow the pace of the game. They did in game one. They just need to play a lot better defense than they did in game one. Look for more doubling of LeBron and better switching from the Celtics in this one.

The first game played to a pace of 94 possessions. That was the slowest paced game between these two teams all season. It got to 221 points (one point over this total) because the Cavs scored 1.27 points per possession. The Celtics scored a decent 1.073 points per possession as well.

It's hard not to like the under when teams are playing that slowly and need to shoot such a high percentage. The Cavs are very capable of torching the nets, but at this number I have to take the under. 

There's a specific system that backs. Here's the playoff system:

-The home team lost the previous game by more than 6 points. 

-The spread is anywhere from home team -3.5 to home team +6.5. 

-The total is 195.5 or higher

-The road team allows 44% shooting or higher

-The home team allows 45% shooting or higher

The under is a perfect 13-0 in this system. Why? My theory here is the home team shows pride after being beaten at home last game, and they play better defense as the oddsmakers adjust the total upward. The under then gets more value. The mediocre defensive numbers make sense because we know that in the long run mediocre or poor defenses get much better in the playoffs because there is a lot more effort exerted on that end of the floor.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Monday Game 7 Red HOT CASH* The Washington Wizards and Boston Celtics meet in a crucial Game 7 matchup on Monday night in Boston. The winner moves on to meet the Cavs. The loser goes home for the year. 

The later you get in a playoff series in the NBA, the slower the tempo generally is. When a team is on the brink of elimination, they typically slow the game down and play much better defense. 

I had the under in game six, which cashed in easily. I don't expect the shooting numbers to be as bad in game 7, and the number has been adjusted lower. Still, I see value on the under. Why? Look at the pace at which last game was played. The average pace in this series has been almost 99 possessions. Last game, the game was played to a tempo of just 93.58 possessions. That's a dramatic difference and at that kind of pace it takes some very good shooting or a bunch of free throws to get past 210 points. 

A couple angles of note-

1. In Game 6 and Game 7 of the NBA playoffs- when the spread is 7 points or less and the under is getting 51% or less of the overall bets, the under is a whopping 73-37 in the last 110. That's 66.4%. 

2. In that same scenario from above- when the Boston Celtics are involved in the game- the under has cashed 13 straight times.

The Celtics have been elimination game under machines. Because the number has been dropped by a lot I won't make it a big play this time, but I will once again take the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The under is a whopping 63-30-7 in the Rangers last 100 Sunday games. I hate putting too much stock in day of the week trends, but Sunday is consistently the best "under" day in the majors overall, so it is something to note. 

Both of these pitchers have excellent track records against their opponent on Sunday. Kendall Graveman has held Texas to a .210 average and .264 OBP in his career. A.J. Griffin has held Oakland to a .163 average and a .234 OBP in his career.

Jim Reynolds is behind the plate and he has changed his stripes a good deal in the past couple years. He was a big over umpire in the past, but he now ranks in the top 20% of umpires in most pitches called a strike. He shouldn't hurt the bet.

It's hot in Texas now, and the wind will be blowing in at about 10 mph. I ran a query on this situation and found that the under is 59-38 in Texas' last 97 home games with a temperature of 86 degrees or warmer and the wind blowing in. 

The under is 10-2 in the Rangers last 12 games after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies start Tyler Anderson here. Anderson was off to a slow start to the season, but I think his long term numbers at Coors Field suggest he is a pretty solid pitcher. He'll be up against a Dodgers lineup that is really bad against left handed pitching. The Dodgers offense is a little bit banged up right now and Adrian Gonzalez is a key part of their lineup missing. 

Alex Wood is throwing the ball better than he has at any point during his career. Wood has a great 2.73 ERA and an even more impressive 1.91 FIP on the season. His strikeouts per nine innings are above 11, and his swinging strike rate is the highest it has been at any point in his career. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. Miller has made me more money than any other umpire in the majors when it comes to betting on unders. He loves to ring people up, and his strikes called percentage is second of all the umpires in the past five years. 

With a high total and Miller behind the dish, I see this as a good value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Celtics/Wizards 100% System Play* The Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards square off in Washington DC on Friday night. The Wizards took care of business in the first two games at home in this series, and they'll have to do that again here if they are going to keep their season going.

Throughout this series so far, both offenses have been extremely efficient. The tempo has averaged 99 possessions. The Celtics are averaging 1.13 points per possession. The Wizards are averaging 1.10 points per possession. Both of these are well above even their regular season averages. Generally, in the playoffs the offensive efficiency numbers go down.

I think this is an opportunity to get good value on the under. The later in the series we get, the slower the tempo generally becomes. The importance of the games mean better defense is played as well.

A couple great systems here. First, in a game 6 or 7 of the playoffs, when the spread is no more than 6.5 points and at least 50% of the overall bets are on the over, the under is a whopping 72-37 (66.1%). That alone is a tremendous angle.

Let's make it even better. In the Celtics last 12 games that fit this system, all 12 of them have stayed under the total. This is a perfect 12-0 under system on Celtics elimination games staying under the total.

This number is inflated by a few points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Miami Marlins have allowed 6 runs or more in 6 of their last 8 games. The Marlins pitching staff has really fallen apart of late, and the bullpen is taxed right now. 

Jose Urena gets the start here, and I don't think he's the answer. Urena had a 6.13 ERA last year. His ERA looks great this year, but that is thanks to stranding 94.3% of runners. He is striking out only 4.22 batters per nine innings. Urena is going to regress to the mean soon. The Braves hitters have a .500 OBP against him, though it is in only 26 plate appearances. 

Mike Foltynewicz had a 4.31 ERA last year and he has a 4.55 ERA so far this year. He puts himself into bad pitch counts far too often, and that leads to mistakes. This is a guy with potential, but so far he has struggled to realize it. The Marlins hitters combine to have a .400 on base percentage against him in 50 plate appearances.

Both bullpens are bad and these offenses are improved. The over is 25-8-2 in the last 35 meetings between these two teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open. The ball flies so well there with the heat and low humidity.

There are some great long-term numbers to prove this is a great over park with the roof open as it is scheduled to be in this one. The over is 150-99 (60.2%) in the last 249 games at Chase Field with the following conditions being met:

-A temperature of 75 degrees or warmer

-The total is 9.5 or lower

-The game is before the All Star Break (roof rarely open later in the season)

Greinke and Cole are both good pitchers, but both of these bullpens are trainwrecks. A total of only 8.5 at Chase Field with the roof open is only warranted if you have a guy like Clayton Kershaw pitching in my opinion, and he isn't pitching here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs meet in Game 6 in Houston. Kawhi Leonard is expected to play by many, but he is still listed as questionable for this one. 

The Spurs won in overtime in Game 5. That was a game that was played to by far the slowest tempo of any game in this series during regulation. The game finished at 217 points even with an overtime. 

Over the years I've found that the tempo slows down and typically the defenses get better when more is on the line. There's a bunch on the line here. Houston is looking to avoid elimination from the playoffs.

There's a strong system that backs this. In a Game 6 or Game 7 in the NBA playoffs with the following information:

-Home team shoots 45% or better from the floor

-The home team win percentage is 67.5% or lower

-The spread is no more than 7.5 points in either direction

The under is a whopping 38-13 (75%) in these situations. This game fits this situation.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays and Kansas City Royals collide in a get away day game in Tampa Bay here. These types of games are generally slightly lower scoring. It's the type of game where you see umpires call more strikes and hitters swing at more first pitches in hopes of keeping things moving. 

Mike Everitt is behind the plate here. On a get away day with a game start time of 5 pm eastern or earlier, the under is 40-24 in Everitt's last 64 games behind home plate. That's a nice 62.5% win percentage.

Jason Vargas and Jake Odorizzi have pitched really well this year, and they'll be facing a weak opposing offense here. Look for both guys to pitch fairly deep into the game.

The under is 12-1 in Vargas' last 13 starts. The under is 8-1 in Odorizzi's last 9 starts. The under is 4-0 in Odorizzi's last 4 following a quality start in his last game. A combined 24-2 trend.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Red Sox offense underachieved for a long time this year. Now, they are on fire. It can be pretty amazing how long these kind of offensive streaks can go for good offensive teams. The Red Sox will definitely finish the year as one of the best offenses in baseball. 

Boston has scored 35 runs in their last three games! They sat out a couple key hitters last night, and I would expect a full roster of starters for this one. Chase Anderson started the year red hot, but he has been shaky in his last couple starts. Anderson is a streaky pitcher and he's been missing his spots in his last couple starts. Boston should make him pay.

Kyle Kendrick is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Kendrick is almost 33 years old, and he was never very good to start with. Kendrick had a 4.73 ERA in Triple A last year, and he had a 6.00 ERA in Triple A this year before being called up. That's not the type of guy that has much success against a good big league lineup very often. The Brewers have a lot of young talent in the order.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Francisco Liriano is a very inconsistent pitcher. Liriano is capable of completely shutting anyone down, but he's also capable of struggling badly. Liriano pitches much better at home, and he's up against a Cleveland team that has been really bad against lefties this year.

Cleveland is hitting .213 against lefties on the year, and they rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. 

Danny Salazar is due for some positive regression. Opponents have a ridiculously high batting average on balls in play against him of .385. That will come down over time. Salazar has excellent stuff and he's up against a Toronto offense without Donaldson and Tulowitzki.

Vic Carapazza is the home plate umpire here, and he ranks in the top ten of my best under umpires in baseball. 

The under is 6-0 in the Indians last 6 vs. a team with a win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 4-0-1 in Salazar's last 5 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Jays last 4 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 6-0 in Liriano's last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 home starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. A 30-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Hector Santiago and Mike Pelfrey on the mound and the total is only 8.5? The cool temperatures in Chicago have something to do with it, but I can't pass up an over at this number with these two guys on the mound.

Santiago has a 2.78 ERA this year, but he has a 5.19 xFIP and a 4.74 SIERA. Those are sabermetric stats that show Santiago has been extremely lucky so far this year. He'll face a White Sox team that ranks in the top six in the majors against left handed pitching in almost all the major categories. 

Mike Pelfrey had 7.50 ERA in two starts in Triple A this year, and he has a 5.02 ERA in the big leagues thus far. This is a guy who is averaging a pathetic 2.51 strikeouts per nine innings this year. He isn't missing bats, and I don't expect Pelfrey to fool many Twins in this game. The Twins hitters have a lifetime batting average of .367 against him.

The over is 8-1 in the Twins last 9 games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals offense is way better than they showed early in the season. The Cardinals have broken out offensively in their last few games. St. Louis has now scored 30 runs in their last four games. I look for this to be one of the best offenses in the National League this year.

Adam Wainwright isn't the pitcher he used to be. Wainwright has an ERA over 6 this year. He isn't as bad as that number would suggest, but his road ERA in the last two years is well over 5. The Marlins offense is good enough with Yelich, Stanton, and Ozuna in the middle of the order to do some damage.

Both bullpens have been bad this year and that means scoring chances late in the game. 

Andy Fletcher is behind the plate here, and he ranks in the bottom ten umps in the majors in strikes called in the past five years.

The over is 4-0 in Wainwright's last 4 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Miami between these teams. A 15-0 angle. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Coors Field is obviously the best hitters park in the majors. The weather conditions matter a lot at Coors though, and the weather conditions on Sunday are absolutely perfect for the over.

A warm temperature has meant higher scoring at Coors Field. Wind blowing out is obviously helpful as well, and that's what we'll have here. The average temperature during this game is expected to be 78 degrees. The wind will be blowing out at 10-15 mph.

In the past 75 day games at Coors Field with a temperature of 75 degrees or warmer and wind blowing out at 10 mph or more, the over is 50-25.

Tyler Chatwood has been terrible at home. He has a career 5.04 ERA at Coors Field. The Diamondbacks bullpen isn't any good, so even if Taijuan Walker slows down the Rockies lineup, Colorado should get plenty of scoring chances late.

Take the over.

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners offense has been much better of late. They were quieted by Yu Darvish last night, but lots of teams will be quieted by Darvish and his elite stuff. Seattle has a lineup full of guys who can hit lefties.

Martin Perez is a below average lefty. Seattle's lineup has a combined .425 on base percentage against Perez, so there are a bunch of guys who really hit him well. Nelson Cruz has 3 homers in 12 at bats against Perez. Kyle Seager has 4 homers in 32 at bats against Perez. 

Chase De Jong doesn't appear to be ready for the big leagues yet. De Jong has had serious control problems all through his minor league career, and he can't locate the zone at all in the bigs. His stuff isn't overpowering enough to overcome that.

The bullpens were both used up in a big way last night. The two starters have to go deeper here, and neither starter is good.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds offense has been much better than expected this year. Eugenio Suarez's red hot start has been a big catalyst. Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler have been very good as well. Everyone expects Joey Votto to be great, and he has been as per the norm. 

The under is 11-3 in the San Francisco Giants 14 home games this year. The over is 11-5 in their last 16 road games. The Giants and Reds have played a bunch of high scoring games against each other in the last few years. The over is 20-8-2 in the last 30 meetings. The over is 6-1-2 in the last 9 meetings between them in Cincinnati.

Ty Blach is a pitch to contact guy. He's averaging less than 4 strikeouts per nine innings. That's extremely low. Amir Garrett was awesome in his first few games but the advanced metrics suggest he has been fortunate overall and I suspect he'll have plenty of growing pains.

Both teams have been better against lefties than righties on the year. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Thursday Early Bird Special* Bill Miller is one of the best under umpires in baseball. No other umpire has made me as much money in the past few years as Miller. The under has value to start with Miller behind the plate. In fact, the under is 219-173 in his games behind the plate (56% under wins). 

The wind here is a major factor as well. The wind is expecting to be blowing in from left center field at 15-20 mph throughout the game with gusts to 25 mph. With a temperature only in the low to mid 60's, the ball won't be carrying well on Thursday afternoon in Kansas City.

The Royals are dead last in weighted on base average in the majors against left handed pitching. The White Sox are dead last in the same category against right handed pitching. Holland is a mediocre lefty, but that should be enough to slow the Royals. Ian Kennedy has been good for the Royals, and his swinging strikes rate and overall strikeout rate has me relatively high on him right now.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Royals last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Royals last 5 vs. a left handed starter. The under is 6-0 in the Royals last 6 games overall vs. a team with a winning record. A 17-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners start Hisashi Iwakuma here. Iwakuma's numbers on the year don't look all that bad, but a closer look at him and I think he is in some real trouble going forward.

Iwakuma has a 4.15 ERA, but his FIP is 6.58 on the season. Iwakuma is striking out only 4.15 batters per nine innings. He struck out 7.70 per nine innings two years ago. Iwakuma is allowing more hard contact than he has at any other time in his career. His velocity is down drastically this year, and it suggests either simple aging (he is 36) or an injury of some kind. 

Ricky Nolasco starts for the Angels. Nolasco has a 4.13 ERA but a FIP of 5.26, so he has gotten lucky as well. Nolasco isn't a terrible pitcher, but he isn't good either.

Adrian Johnson is behind home plate and he's a very good over umpire. The over is hitting at a 57% clip in his last 5 years of games behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Nationals are absolutely crushing left handed pitching so far this year. Washington has an amazing .439 OBP against lefties this year. That's obviously not going to continue, but the Nationals are going to be one of the top three or four in the majors against lefties.

Arizona ranked as the best team in the majors against lefties according to weighted on base average last year. The Diamondbacks are 11th so far this year. Expect them to be very good in that category again this year.

Robbie Ray is a pretty good starter, but walks are a major problem. Ray is walking 5.04 batters per nine innings. That's bad news when Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire. He is arguably the best over umpire in the business and he won't give Ray any breaks here.

Gio Gonzalez is due for some major regression. Gonzalez has a 1.62 ERA and a 3.69 FIP and a 4.17 FIP. That suggests he has gotten very fortunate so far this year. He started really fast last year before pitching some subpar baseball the rest of the way.

The over is 7-0-1 in the Nats last 8 games. The over is 6-0-1 in their last 7 vs. the NL West. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games. A 16-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NHL Total DOMINATION* Two of the top defensive minded teams in the NHL clash in Game 3 and this is an under play.

These two goalies are extremely dominant and are going to give their
top games here with a lot on the line.

Henrik Lundqvist and Craig Anderson have stepped up time and time
again this season for their teams and expect them to do that just
here.

This is going to fall in the hands of the Senators and them slowing
the tempo down. They will look to really play control and possession,
not allowing the Rangers to get out and attack.

A few trends to keep in mind for this game. Under is 17-6-7 in Rangers last 30
Conference Semifinals games. Under is 19-5-2 in the last 26 meetings
in New York. Under is 32-10-9 in the last 51 meetings.

This is a nice spot to expect a very low scoring game. Trends wise,
this is an under move and given the situation, this is going to be a
slower paced game. Both goalies are far better than they showed last game.

Take the under.

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles are both better on offense than they have shown in the early going this year. Both of these teams have a large amount of proven hitters who are underachieving thus far, and those guys should start producing sooner rather than later. 

Rick Porcello isn't nearly as good as you would think based on the fact that he won the AL Cy Young award last year. Porcello is a pitch to contact guy who has only been mediocre in his career against Baltimore. The Orioles have a .323 OBP against him.

Dylan Bundy has been good this year, but I still don't trust his consistency, especially away from home. Bundy has a career 2.67 ERA at home and a 4.53 ERA on the road. 

The Orioles bullpen is good, but it takes a big hit without Britton. The Red Sox bullpen is only average. 

This one is priced too low. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls are looking to try to stay alive after losing 3 straight to the Boston Celtics. 

The Bulls are expected to be without Rajon Rondo again in this one. Without Rondo, the pace of the games has slowed down drastically. The first couple games were pacing at about 97 possessions per game. The last three have been 93.5 on average. That's a big drop and it makes it hard to surpass this total. 

For some perspective, the 93.58 possessions the last 3 games have averaged out to is slower than any team in the NBA played on average during the regular season. We know that Game 6 and Game 7's in the playoffs often get slower. When there is so much on the line, the game slows down and the defenses usually get better.

In Game 6 and Game 7 situations, the under is a perfect 15-0 in the last 15 games with these specifics-

-The total is 191 or higher

-The spread is between home team -7.5 and home team +5

-The home team has won 60% or less of their games on the year

-The home team's defensive field goal percentage allowed is 45.6% or lower

This game fits the system. Look for a slower pace and a hard fought game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards play Game 6 of their series on Friday night. Game 6 and Game 7's in the NBA playoffs have been good under plays in general, and when you take a closer look at specific stats the trend gets even stronger.

When the home team in that game has won 62% or less of their games, and the under is getting 37% or less of the bets, the under is 26-8 in the last 34 games. That's a pretty strong trend.

The pace has slowed down in this series. The slowest game by far was Game 5. The Hawks have a much better chance of winning if they slow the game down. The Hawks ranked fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the regular season, but they ranked in the bottom five in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Atlanta needs to slop this game up to try to continue on to Game 7. 

With the importance of the game, 210 is an awfully high number. Backed by long-term trends, I'll definitely side with the under here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* This is a Game 6 where Memphis is looking to stave off elimination. NBA elimination games have typically been strong under plays, especially in particular situations. This game fits a couple of key situations.

When it is game 6 or game 7 in the NBA playoffs and the home team has a win percentage of less than 62%, and the spread of the game is between home team -6 and home team +7 points, the under is a whopping 48-19 (71.6%). 

These two offenses absolutely went off last game, and that caused the oddsmakers to move the number up. The Spurs scored 1.323 points per possession last game. The Grizzlies scored 1.231 points per possession. This is record territory. The pace was played to a VERY slow 85 possessions. If they keep playing at that pace, the under has significant value.

The Spurs were one of the top defenses in the NBA and the Grizzlies will fight hard defensively with their backs against the wall.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Dodgers have been awful against left handed pitching. The Dodgers are 21st in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching so far this year. Last year, they were dead last in the majors in that same statistic against lefties. Matt Moore isn't a particularly great lefty, but this is a very good pitchers park, and the Dodgers don't hit those lefties well to start with. 

Julio Urias is going to be a star for the Dodgers. How soon? Likely sooner than you would think. Urias was very good in his rookie year last year despite being 19 years old. His stuff is electric and he'll be up against a Giants lineup that is badly banged up. The Giants lineup as it stands right now is one of the five worst in the majors.

It's a get away day which makes me lean more toward the under with some key players possibly getting the day off. Also, Kerwin Danley is the umpire here and the under is 86-50 in his last 136 games behind home plate.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants have a great rivalry. These two teams bring it every time they meet up with each other. While the Giants haven't been good so far this year, we have seen a much better Giants team show up in the first two games of this series.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. Miller ranks second out of more than 80 umpires in the majors in percentage of pitches called a strike in the last five years. The under is cashing at a 56% clip in Miller's last 300 games behind home plate. You won't find a better under umpire than Miller. He has made me a lot of cash in the past few years.

Johnny Cueto has a 2.61 ERA at AT&T Park. Cueto also has a 2.99 ERA in his career in the first half of the season. He starts strong, and I expect a good outing from him against the Dodgers here.

Alex Wood is a solid pitcher, and he goes against a Giants lineup that has all kinds of injury problems right now.

The Dodgers bullpen is elite and the Giants bullpen is no worse than mediocre.

The under is 7-0 in the Dodgers last 7 games vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in Wood's last 4 starts following a team loss. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a left handed starter. The under is 4-0 in Cueto's last 4 starts vs. the Dodgers. A 31-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers meet on Wednesday night in Texas.  Both of these offenses are underachieving so far this year, but I expect them to warm up soon.

Texas has the third lowest batting average on balls in play (BABIP) as a team this year. That tells you they are having some really bad luck in general when it comes to batted balls. This is a Rangers team that has typically been good against left-handed pitching.

Hector Santiago and Cole Hamels both carry some ridiculous strand rates and opponents BABIP numbers. Both of these guys are going to regress in a negative way soon.

Hamels' worst month of the year historically is the first month of the season. Santiago has consistently proven himself to not be good enough to be effective as a starter.

We have an over umpire here in David Rackley. The wind will be blowing out at 15-20 mph during this one as well.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* Dylan Covey only pitched six games above the High A ball level of the minor leagues, and yet he is somehow in the White Sox starting rotation. It makes little sense to me. Covey was tatooed for 8 runs in his last start against the Yankees. As long as he is in the rotation, I think we should assume he'll have a lot of bad games. Covey walked more than 5 batters per nine innings in Double A last year, and he's struck out only 1.74 batters per nine innings so far this year. 

The Royals offense isn't good, but I think any big league offense should get a lot of chances to score against Dylan Covey.

Danny Duffy is a quality pitcher, but the White Sox are going to be good against lefties this year. Several guys on this roster are much better against south paws than right handed pitching. 

The over is 4-1-2 in Duffy's last 7 road starts. There is early sharp money on the over, and I'm going to agree with them here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA System Play PERFECTION* The Toronto Raptors and Milwaukee Bucks played an extremely low scoring game in Game Four. That game finished 30.5 points under the posted total. This kind of huge difference from the posted total is going to create a response from the oddsmakers. We've seen that result in the posted total going from 195 last game to 191.5 in this game. 

Keep in mind that the posted total in the first game between these two was actually 200.5 when it first came out. A nine point adjustment from game one to game five is a huge adjustment. 

Toronto and Milwaukee are both underperforming drastically on offense compared to their season numbers. Toronto has been the least efficient offense in the NBA playoffs so far through four games. They are averaging only 0.94 points per possession. In the regular season, they finished sixth with 1.098 points per possession. The Milwaukee defense is no better than average, and I expect Toronto to shoot the ball better. Milwaukee's offense averaged 1.068 points per possession in the regular season. They are now at 1.014 points per possession in this series.

There's a strong system play backing this one. When the last game went under the total by more than 27 points and in the following game the home team is favored by 4.5 points or more, the over is a perfect 16-0 in the 16 times this situation has come up in the last 10 years.

The tendency is for the offenses to bounce back after such a terrible showing. With the strong angle and the reduced line, I'll take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Clippers/Jazz Total DOMINATION* The Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers meet in an important game four matchup in Salt Lake City. 

Utah won the first game in LA, but they have lost the last two games. Chris Paul put on a show to win the game for the Clippers late in the fourth.

Blake Griffin is out and Rudy Gobert is doubtful for this game. The under was 11-8 in the 19 games Griffin missed during the regular season. There's a lot more pressure on Paul to be great on offense when Griffin isn't in the game.

The pace of this series has been very slow. The average pace in the first 3 games is 91.5 possessions. These two teams are playing almost exclusively in the halfcourt. The shooting percentages have been extremely high in this series. Last game alone, the Clippers averaged a whopping 1.25 points per possession and the Jazz averaged 1.18 points per possession. That kind of efficiency isn't sustainable in the long run.

Look for things to go back to a normal rate. Remember, the first two games in this series stayed under the total. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Afternoon MONEYMAKER* The Oklahoma City Thunder have successfully slowed the tempo down in this series. Now, they just need to get some improved defense. Still, the fact that the average pace in this series is 99.6 possessions per game is very telling. It's really difficult to consistently get to a total this high when you aren't playing any faster than that.

The free throw numbers have been really high the last couple games, and the Thunder shot better than 55% last game. That game still only cleared this total by 3.5 points. 

This game fits a nice long-term system. The team with the lower winning percentage is hosting the game and the spread is between -2.5 and +4.5 on the home team. The total is above 190.5. In this situation, the under is 58-23 (71.6%) in the last 81 games.

This total is several points too high. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs are no strangers to really low scoring games against each other. Though regular season games are generally higher scoring than playoff contests, 3 of the 4 regular season games between these two finished below this posted total. That includes one game that finished 95-89 in overtime. 

Memphis scored 1.238 points per possession last game against a really good Spurs defense. I don't think that is going to happen again. The Grizzlies aren't very efficient on offense this year, and the Spurs are good at guarding without fouling.

The tempo of each of these games has been really slow. The average pace of the games in this series has been 86.88 possessions. That is five possessions slower than the next slowest paced playoff series thus far.

The defenses should be better in this one. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mark Ripperger is one of the best under umpires in the game today. He'll help both young pitchers in this one. Jharel Cotton has a really high upside, and he is a guy who can be really tough to hit if he gets ahead in the count. Look for him to be ahead in the count more often with a strike caller like Ripperger behind the dish.

Ariel Miranda isn't a special pitcher by any means, but the Oakland A's offense should be one of the worst in the majors this year overall, and they are worse against left-handed pitching than righties. Miranda has enough pitches in his repertoire that he can likely keep the A's to a small amount of runs here. 

The under is 4-0-1 in Cotton's last 5 home starts. The under is 4-1 in Miranda's last 5 starts.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets aren't playing all that fast in this series. The pace of the first two games averaged 100 possessions. That's much slower than the regular season games between these two teams.

The first game stayed under the total by a huge amount as Oklahoma City languished on offense. Game two went over this number by two points as there were 65 free throws in the game. 

There is an angle on this game that fits perfectly, and it is a very good long-term winner. The under is a whopping 57-21 in this situation. Here are the factors that enter the equation.

-The road team has a higher winning percentage on the year than the home team.

-The total is 190.5 points or higher. 

-The spread is within a range of -2.5 on the home team to +4.5 on the home team.

That fits this game perfectly. I see this total being a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies have both been struggling to score runs of late. While Coors Field is obviously a great hitters park, the weather conditions here for Friday night's game aren't conducive to the ball carrying. The temperature will be in the mid 40's and the wind will be blowing in at about 10 mph.

Johnny Cueto has a dazzling 2.43 ERA in six career starts at Coors Field. That's one of the best marks you'll ever see from a pitcher with a lot of innings at Coors Field. Cueto has allowed only four runs in his last 22 innings pitched at Coors Field.

Tyler Chatwood has an amazing 2.55 ERA against the Giants in 74 career innings. In two of his last three starts against the Giants, the Giants finished the game with zero runs.

This total is high considering the situation and the pitching matchup. Also, Carlos Gonzalez is questionable for this game.

Some big trends pointing to the under here. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 8-0 in the Rockies last 8 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 during game one of a series. The under is 4-0 in Chatwood's last 4 starts. A combined 41-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Celtics/Bulls Red Hot CASH* The Chicago Bulls and Boston Celtics have finished with 208 points total in each of the first two games. When you consider only that, the line of 207.5 makes a lot of sense. Let's look a little deeper though. 

The average pace is only 97 possessions per game through the first two. The Bulls are averaging 1.111 points per possession through the first two games. In the regular season, the Bulls averaged 1.046 points per possession. That kind of jump in offensive efficiency in the playoffs is almost unheard of. 

In the playoffs, defenses toughen up and the pace slows down because of the importance of the games. No game is more important than this one to the Celtics, who absolutely have to win this game. Look for improved defense from them here.

In the regular season, these teams met four times. None of those four games finished higher than 207 points. Playoff games are generally lower scoring, and I think the first two games being high is giving us value on the under. 

There is an angle on this game that fits perfectly, and it is a very good long-term winner. The under is a whopping 57-21 in this situation. Here are the factors that enter the equation.

-The road team has a higher winning percentage on the year than the home team.

-The total is 190.5 points or higher. 

-The spread is within a range of -2.5 on the home team to +4.5 on the home team.

Look for a return to normalcy and an under here. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Houston Astros have Lance McCullers on the mound on Thursday. McCullers is a guy with a really high upside. I think he has the stuff to be an All Star every year and contend for a Cy Young award. McCullers has a career 2.18 ERA at home. 

The Angels lineup isn't deep. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and Albert Pujols is hitting the ball well, but in general this team isn't very good down the order.

Matt Shoemaker starts here for the Angels. Shoemaker is the Angels best pitcher, at least in my opinion. He has a deceptive delivery and mixes up his pitches well. The Astros offense is missing Carlos Correa right now, and he is considered doubtful for this game. 

Tripp Gibson is the umpire here, and my umpire spreadsheet says he is a decent under umpire. It's a Wednesday get away day game and that's definitely a positive for the under as well.

Take the under big! 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers are terrible against left handed pitching. This offense is one of the best in the majors against righties, but against lefties they are a bottom six or eight offense in baseball.

Tyler Anderson has a solid track record in the minors and in the majors last year, and I expect him to pitch better than he has shown so far this season. Look for positive regression on the way for Anderson.

Clayton Kershaw dominates the game like no other pitcher. Kershaw is at his best at Dodger Stadium and this Rockies lineup isn't completely healthy right now. They are better against right handed pitching as well.

The under is 6-0 in the Rockies last 6 vs. a lefty. The under is 20-9 in the Dodgers last 29 home games vs. a left handed starter.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Zach Wheeler certainly has potential, but with his kind of injury history and lack of work in the last few years, he is a guy I have to be cautious with.

Zach Eflin just doesn't have good enough stuff to be a good big league pitcher. Eflin struck out only 4.41 batters per nine innings last year. That's an extremely low rate, and his minor league numbers don't show a guy who will strike out many either. Combine that with the fact that Eflin has below average command and you have a guy who isn't very good.

These two teams have a history of scoring a lot of runs against each other. The over is an impressive 70-34-5 in the last 109 games between these two NL East foes.

Given the question marks at pitcher and the lack of a dominant bullpen for either team, I'm taking the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total Domination* The Marlins have Koehler slated to pitch this game. In his career, he has a 4.50 ERA on the road. Miranda, who is set to start for the Mariners, is a young pitcher who has been having control problems. His FIP is above 6 this year, which suggests he is fortunate to not have an ever higher ERA this year. I like the over given this combination of subpar starting pitching.

The over is 11-4 in the Marlins last 15 interleague games. The over is 21-7-2 in the Marlins last 30 interleague games. I think this interleague contest will be high scoring as well.

Take the over.

*4 Star NBA Playoff Early Bird Winner* The Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks played four times during the regular season. Three of the four games went under the posted total. That's important because generally the defense ramps up significantly in the playoffs and games are lower scoring because of the importance of the game.

Both of these teams play at an average tempo, so there shouldn't be an extremely quick pace. These two defenses have matched up well in the past, and I expect them to be good again here.

Early games on Sunday have always been strong to the under, and first round playoff games have been good under plays in the past as well.

This game fits a nice playoff system: Play on the under in a first round playoff game that starts before 6 pm eastern and the total is at least 190.5. The under is 35-17 in the last 52 games that fits this system.

The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians have two of the top offenses in the majors. Cleveland should be even better on offense than they were last year. The Indians have a great young leader in Lindor, and Carlos Santana is great at getting on base from the leadoff spot.

Detroit's lineup is excellent as well. Miguel Cabrera has hit into some bad luck in the early going. He's been ripping the ball all over the field, but hitting it right at people. He'll get it going, and so will Victor Martinez. Detroit will score a lot of runs this year.

Justin Verlander has a career 5.37 ERA at Progressive Field. Corey Kluber has a career 4.05 ERA against the Detroit Tigers. Both Verlander and Kluber have been at their worst from an ERA standpoint in the first month of the season over the course of their careers.

The over is 26-5 in the last 31 meetings between these two in Cleveland. The over is 6-1 in Kluber's last 7 vs. Detroit. The over is 9-4 in Verlander's last 13 starts vs. Cleveland. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two excellent young pitchers going against each other in this one. Lance McCullers and Sean Manaea are both guys I have ranked very highly. I think these guys will both have breakout seasons this year. Perception isn't high enough on them yet to have a really low total, but I think this one deserves to be at no higher than 7.

Manaea just struck out 10 in his last start at Texas, and that's a really tough place to pitch. McCullers has been great this year, and he's up against one of the worst offenses in the American League in the Oakland A's. 

The under is 19-7 in McCullers' last 26 starts. The under is 6-1 in Manaea's last 7 starts vs. an AL West foe. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants are without Buster Posey right now, and there's no question he is the best hitter on this roster. The Giants lineup isn't great even with Posey, and without him this is a subpar lineup. 

Colorado's offense is banged up right now, and the Rockies aren't even close to the same team on the road offensively. 

Tyler Anderson has good stuff, and he has been good in his first couple years with the Rockies. I like his ability to induce weak contact and a lot of ground balls. 

Johnny Cueto has a career 2.22 ERA in 12 starts vs. the Rockies, so he has really dominated this team. Cueto has a great 2.61 ERA in his career when pitching inside AT&T Park.

Mike Everitt is the umpire here and he ranks in the top ten in the majors in strikes called in the last five years. A good under umpire.

The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a divisional opponent. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. A 16-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense is getting healthy, and I expect big things from them this year. Chad Kuhl doesn't have very good stuff. Kuhl is going to get hard by a lot of teams this year, and I think Boston will be one of them. 

Eduardo Rodriguez is very inconsistent, and the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup is excellent against lefties. Pittsburgh has some major split differentials against lefties vs. righties, and that is something to keep in mind going forward this year. 

Another key factor here is the conditions at Fenway Park. The weather is helpful for the over. The temperature will be 60 degrees with the wind blowing out at 12 mph during the afternoon. The ball should fly well.

Two way above average offenses and two suspect pitchers. I'll take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Regular Season Finale CASH* The Orlando Magic have decided to play much faster late in the season. In their last eight games, Orlando ranks fourth in the NBA in tempo. For the season as a whole, they rank 14th in the league in pace. The Magic are experimenting with a quick pace as the season comes to a close. 

Orlando's defense has suffered in a big way when they have experimented with playing faster. The Magic are dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. 

Detroit has some good young players who are getting some minutes now including Ish Smith at the point guard spot and Boban Marjanovic, and I see them being able to score on this bad Orlando defense. 

Orlando's offense is coming off one of their franchises worst all time offensive performances. After a game like that, it is generally a good idea to expect a much better performance. The shooting numbers are unlikely to be that bad again, and these professionals usually show some pride.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Boston Red Sox are starting to get healthy on offense. Hanley Ramirez, Xander Boegarts, and Mookie Betts are all back in the lineup. That makes a huge difference, and Boston put up 8 runs last night. 

This Boston lineup is one of the best in baseball, and they are scoring to score a bunch of runs this year. Baltimore starts Ubaldo Jimenez here, and Jimenez puts way too many guys on base for my liking. He has an ERA above 6 at Fenway Park in his career as well. 

Steven Wright has been much worse at home than on the road, and this Baltimore offense is definitely above average.

Adrian Johnson is the umpire here and he rates in the top ten over umpires in baseball in my umpire database. The wind will be blowing out at about 14 or 15 mph during this game as well, which certainly helps.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night BAILOUT* The Phoenix Suns have been really good on offense down the stretch. Not only are they pushing the pace, but they are being much more efficient on offense in the last few weeks of the season. Tyler Ulis is doing a great job running the point for this team, and he is getting guys like T.J. Warren and Devin Booker more open looks.

The Sacramento Kings just gave up 135 points last game to the Houston Rockets. Sacramento has now allowed 117 points or more in three of their last five games. 

On the other side, Phoenix has allowed 120 points or more in six of their last nine games. The Suns defense is brutal. Offensively, Phoenix has scored 116 points ore more  in six of their last nine games.

Neither team has anything to play for, and I expect the tempo to be quick all the way in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* There has been some serious sharp action on the over, and I think that makes a lot of sense. Detroit is going to be one of the best in the majors against left handed pitching this year. Hector Santiago is one of the weakest left handed pitchers in the majors. 

Matt Boyd is a below average pitcher as well, and the Twins offense should put up a lot of runs this year. 

Both bullpens are way below average, so I expect a lot of scoring chances late in this game. 

I'm tracking over 1,000 bets so far in this game and 70% of the bets are on the over, but a whopping 99% of the money is on the over.

The over is 8-0 in the Tigers last 8 vs. the AL Central.

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I'm following a long-term system that has been strong for overs in the first month of the season. When the total is 9 or lower and the temperature is 65 degrees or higher with a wind blowing out at least 7 miles per hour, the over is hitting at an amazing 63.4% in the last ten seasons. This game fits with a total of 8 and a forecast of 73 degrees with the wind blowing out at about 12 mph.

Adam Wainwright had a 7.16 ERA in the first month of the season last year. Wainwright also had an awful 6.18 ERA in 17 road starts last season. He isn't a terrible pitcher now, but he isn't even close to the ace he once was. 

Tanner Roark doesn't have dominating stuff, and I expect his numbers to move backward a bit this year. Without a dominating pitch it is hard to sustain the kind of numbers Roark had last year. 

This Cardinals offense is coming off a terrible performance on Sunday and I expect much better from them here. The Nationals are improved on offense from a year ago.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Sunday Night 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves meet on Sunday night in a game that means nothing to either team. I'm not even sure either of these teams actually want to win this game. When you have no motivation to win a game, the first thing that goes is the defense.

At the end of the regular season, the over has done better than the under in the past few seasons, and that has been especially true in games between teams who have no shot at the playoffs. 

Minnesota ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last 8 games. The Timberwolves aren't even pretending to try on defense right now. The Lakers aren't good on defense either. Minnesota has played faster of late, and I think this will be an uptempo game where both teams get a lot of easy shots.

The over is 7-0 in Minnesota's last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the Pacific Division. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Los Angeles. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings overall between these two teams. A 23-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the WEEK* The Colorado Rockies and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in the series finale on Sunday afternoon. There haven't been many runs scored in the first two games in this series. No one would have expected 2-1 and 4-2 finals at Coors between these two teams. I don't necessarily expect this game to be that low, but I do think 11 is way too high considering all the factors that go into this one.

The Los Angeles Dodgers offense is MUCH better against right handed pitchers. Tyler Anderson is a good young lefty for Colorado. Anderson had a great 3.54 ERA and a 3.59 FIP last year. That suggests there was no luck involved in his strong season. Anderson had a stellar 2.45 ERA in day games started last year. Anderson also had an amazing 1.83 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers. 

Kenta Maeda starts for the Dodgers. He's great at getting soft contact, and that works to his advantage here. The Rockies have some key offensive pieces banged up now as well. Maeda has only allowed 4 runs in 17 innings pitched at Coors Field. 

The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 40% or lower. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 starts vs. a team with a 50% or higher win percentage. The under is 4-0 in Maeda's last 4 starts vs. Colorado. The under is 4-0 in Gary Cedarstrom's last 4 games behind home plate. A 26-0 angle.

Take the under big. TOP Rated Total of the WEEK 

*3 Star Play Under* Ron Kulpa is the umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. I track umpires extensively and Kulpa is a big time strike caller. He loves ringing up batters on questionable pitches, and that definitely helps the under in a big way.The under is 211-157 in his last 368 games behind home plate (57.1% unders).

Sean Manaea is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He is going to have a breakout season soon, and it won't surprise me if it is this season. He'll be dealing with a Rangers offense that is without Adrian Beltre. That's key since Beltre is the team's best hitter against lefties.

Martin Perez isn't all that good, but this Oakland offense isn't very good either. Perez has pitched his best in day games, and he'll be helped a lot by Kulpa behind the dish.

Give me a number this high with Kulpa behind home plate and I almost have to take it.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Totals that are set relatively low have been very good over bets in the month of April in the last few years. 

Let's take a look at a situation that fits this game perfectly. Games totaled at 9 or less where the temperature is at least 65 degrees (77 projected for St Louis Sunday) and the wind is blowing out at least 10 miles per hour (the forecast calls for 20 mph wind out here) have gone over the total at a clip of 60-35 (63.2%) in the past ten years. 

It helps that we get Andy Fletcher behind the plate. Fletcher ranks in the bottom ten umpires in the majors in strikes called in the last three seasons. 

Scott Feldman is a way below average pitcher, and this Cardinals lineup will be one of the best in the National League. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* R.A. Dickey starts for the Braves in this one. Dickey isn't the worse pitcher you'll find, but he is below average at this stage of his career. The Pittsburgh Pirates lineup should be very good this season. Look for Pittsburgh to have a lot of runners on base against Dickey.

Chad Kuhl starts for the Pirates. Kuhl has below average stuff and relies heavily on limiting walks. This Atlanta lineup is better than most believe. Look for the Braves to score more runs on a consistent basis this year. 

Both of these bullpens are worse than the league average, so runs late in the game should be expected. Tom Hallion is the homeplate umpire here, and he is a solid over umpire. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kevin Gausman has a superb record against the Yankees in his young career. Gausman has an ERA below 2 against the Yankees, and much of that sample was against a much better Yankees offense than this year's version. Gausman has excellent stuff and I expect a breakout season from him. 

Masahiro Tanaka has been very good against the Orioles in his career as well. Tanaka ranked in the top five in the American League in many key pitching statistics last season. 

These are two of the top five bullpens in baseball, so I expect the offenses to have a hard time scoring late in this contest. Gibson is the home plate umpire here and he rates as a solid under umpire. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Shelby Miller has a lot of potential, but he also has a great amount of potential to get blown up. Miller has trouble with command both inside and outside the strike zone. While his velocity was up in the spring, he still was hit around. Until he proves he is back, I have to assume he'll get knocked around, especially on his home field.

Cleveland's offense should be even better this year with Encarnacion in the lineup and Brantley back from his injury.

Chase Field is a hitters paradise with the roof open. The ball carries so well here in the thin air with almost no humidity. The roof will be open for this one.

Josh Tomlin pitches here for the Indians, and Tomlin's primary problem has always been the long ball. That would suggest he isn't a good fit for Chase Field with the roof open. Arizona's lineup will score a lot of runs at home this year.

Both pitchers give up a lot of big flies, and the ball will be traveling well in this one.

The over is 43-17-1 in the Diamondbacks last 61 home games. 

Take the over. 

*4 NHL Total DOMINATION* Two teams who have zero motivation clash on Thursday night.

With that in mind, there won’t be much of an effort. These two teams just want this season to come to an end. It’s been an absolute mess for both and getting to the offseason and regrouping is what they both want and need.

On the season, neither of these teams have been any sort of threat offensively. Vancouver averages just 2.16 goals per game, while the Coyotes are at just 2.34 goals per contest. There just a lack of a spark when it comes to both these teams, as neither team likes to attack the net. Rather, they sit back and play possession.

Under is 10-1-1 in last 12 meetings in Arizona. The under is 4-0-1 in the Canucks last 5. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 2-0-3 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.

Trends wise, this one points to the Under. Given how both teams have played this season and how they want things to just end, there won’t be much of anything here, really make this under a nice play. At this plus money price, a nice value.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* I considered this play last night, and I'm going to add this as a premium play based on today's changes. Sergei Bobrovsky will not start for the Blue Jackets. Bobrovsky is one of the best goaltenders in the NHL, and having him out of the lineup is big for the over. Instead, it will be Joonas Korpisalo in the net for the Blue Jackets. He has a save percentage more than 2% lower than Bobrovsky.

Winnipeg starts Eric Comrie in the net today. Comrie is making his NHL debut here. Comrie has one of the worst defense in the NHL playing in front of him, so this is a tough task for him. Columbus hasn't been very good on offense of late, but I think they'll put up several against a Winnipeg team that is one of the worst defensive units in the NHL.

The sharp money loves this play, and I can't play them. About 2/3 of the bets are on the over, but 99% of the money is on the over. I'll take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Both Matt Moore and Taijuan Walker have had a lot of command problems in the past couple years. These are guys who can be wild inside or outside of the strike zone. Those are the type of guys that I want to take game overs with. Walks are far more important to how many runs are scored than most would think, and these guys are capable of walking a bunch.

Chase Field is one of the best parks for hitters in Major League Baseball. The ball flies so well here with the roof open as it will be for this game. The dry heat is excellent for ball flight. 

Both offenses have some pop to them. Arizona was among the top three in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties last year. 

Arizona has what I believe is the worst bullpen in baseball. The Giants bullpen is one of the bottom ten in the league.

The over is 40-17-1 in the Dbacks last 58 home games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners play Wednesday night in Houston. Doug Eddings is the umpire behind the plate in this one, and that's good news for under bettors. Eddings has called a higher percentage of pitches strikes than any other umpire in the majors in the past five years. Pitchers love working with him behind home plate.

Both of these teams have above average bullpens and good defenses, and those things are often overlooked when it comes to betting on baseball totals. 

I think James Paxton has a good future in the league, and Charlie Morton is a decent starter as well. The total set at this high of a level with Eddings behind home plate makes this a good value.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Tyler Chatwood has been good on the road in the past year, but opponents batting average on balls in play was .226 against Chatwood on the road last year. If you know anything about BABIP you know that won't continue. The average BABIP in the majors is about .295 or .300, so Chatwood is due for major regression on the road.

Wily Peralta has been really bad in the past year. Peralta just allows way too many baserunners. The Rockies lineup is a good one from top to bottom, and I expect a couple big innings for the Rockies here. 

Both pitchers have control problems, and Andy Fletcher is behind home plate here. According to my database, Fletcher ranks in the bottom ten in the majors in strikes called in the last three seasons. A good umpire to have behind the dish for a game like this.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Pistons aren't the same on offense without Reggie Jackson. He was averaging more than 14 points per game, and this team doesn't have many guys like him who can get their own shots at any time. 

Toronto was embarrassed by blowing a big lead last night, and the Raptors will want to bounce back here. 

This game is important to both teams with the Pistons still technically alive for the playoffs and the the Raptors fighting for positioning near the top of the Eastern Conference.

Both teams rank in the top 7 in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past ten games. Detroit ranks second to last in that same time period in offensive efficiency. 

Both teams rank in the bottom ten in the league in terms of tempo.

The under is 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 games when playing on zero days of rest. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games when playing against a team with a winning home record. 

The under is 8-0 in the Pistons last 8 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the Atlantic Division. A 31-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION * The Cleveland Indians showed off their improved offense last night in a come from behind win in Texas. Edwin Encarnacion was huge with a key home run. He should fit brilliantly into this lineup. Cleveland has star Francisco Lindor in the second spot and I expect him to be terrific this year.

Texas has a deep lineup again this year. The Rangers can always pile up the runs on their home field. This is a hitter's park and this team will take advantage of it this year.

Carlos Carrasco had a whopping 10.80 ERA in spring training this year. I don't put a lot of stock in those stats, but Carrasco is coming off injury problems and that suggests some possible issues still for the righty. Carrasco has a 6.23 ERA in 13 innings pitched in Texas. 

Martin Perez has an awful 12.46 ERA in three appearances against the Indians. Perez isn't a pitcher I'm high on, and I think Cleveland can put up a pretty big number here. 

Early in the season over the last decade, the over has done well, and that is especially true in warm weather cities. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NHL FIRE on ICE Play* Tuesday night features one of the worst defenses in the NHL, which gives us solid value on the over.

It’s been quite the common theme for the Jets this season as they boast one of the worst defenses in the league. The Jets are conceding 3.14 goals per game overall and that number jumps to 3.26 when playing on the road.

This is going to be a game where the Blue feast on the Jets defense. St. Louis has plenty of attackers and when playing at home they really work well offensively. Their goals per game jumps to 3.03 when playing in front of the home crowd, which should really be a recipe for success here as they’ll have a lot of chances on net.

The Over is 7-3 in Jets last 10 games playing on 2 days rest. The Over is 24-11-1 in Jets last 36 overall.

Whichever way you look at it, Winnipeg has been an over bet this season. They are just so poor defensively, which should create plenty of chances for St. Louis, helping this total. As for the Jets offense, they like to crash the net, which helps them with scoring chances, but leaves them vulnerable to the counter.

Take the over.

*3 Star MLB Opening Day Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Angels and the Oakland Athletics meet in the season opener on Monday night. 

The over has been very good in the first ten games of the season in the past five years. That has been especially true in games with a total of 8 or lower and a gametime temperature of 55 degrees or warmer. These games have gone over at a clip of about 58% in the past five years. In a large sample size, that's definitely a good number.

The Angels and A's are both subpar defensively. I don't think enough importance is put on defense and how it changes totals. Oakland may be the worst defense in the majors, and that will lead to more opportunities for scoring. 

Neither team has a tremendous lineup, but both of them are better than last year. These bullpens are also no better than average.

Nolasco is a worse than league average pitcher and Graveman is no better than league average at this stage in his career.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Sunday NBA BEST Bet* The Golden State Warriors have quietly been a tremendous under team of late. The under is a whopping 16-2 in games Kevin Durant doesn't play this year. 

Golden State has surprisingly slowed their tempo down drastically. I believe it was to focus on their defense, and it is working very well. Golden State ranks 18th in the NBA in tempo in their last eight games. That means they are playing slower than the average NBA team during that period.

The Warriors are also first in the league in defensive efficiency during that time period. They are allowing only 0.978 points per possession in that period.

Washington ranks 11th in the league in tempo during the last eight games. The Wizards offense has been less efficient on the road by a large margin this year.

Taking the under late in the year when two good teams are playing against each other is a 60% plus angle in the past five years. 

The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. The under is 10-1 in the Warriors last 11 home games. A 22-1 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Bucks and Dallas Mavs play a game that tips off at 2:35 central time on Sunday. These early start time games have trended strongly toward the under in the past few years, so that is a nice bonus for this one.

Dallas will be without Seth Curry here. Curry is averaging 12.8 points per game on the year. Milwaukee's Malcolm Brogdon is questionable with a back injury and he is averaging 10 points per game on the season.

Both of these teams rank in the bottom five in the NBA in tempo in the past month. The tempo should be very slow in this game. Neither of these teams are terribly efficient on offense either, and with some good offensive players missing, the defenses should have the edge.

The under is 7-3 in the Mavs last 10 road games. The under is 14-6 in the Bucks last 20 games. 

The early sharp money is on the under. I agree and I'll take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder rank 11th in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. The Charlotte Hornets rank 27th in the NBA in tempo in that same period. I wouldn't expect the pace of this game to be all that fast, especially for a game with a posted total set this high.

The Charlotte Hornets defense has been really bad of late, but I expect that to show positive regression over the next few games. After all, Charlotte's defense ranks better than the league average for the year.

Oklahoma City is playing slightly better on defense of late, and the Thunder are much better on defense at home. 

The under is 7-0 in the last 7 Thunder games when playing as a home favorite with a total of 207 or higher. The under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 games in OKC between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*5 Star Final 4 TOP Play CRUSHER* We're down to the final four teams left standing in the tournament. Now, things get a lot more intense. The teams have even more pressure on them, and things get a little tighter.

The Gonzaga Bulldogs rank first in the nation (351 teams) in defensive efficiency. The South Carolina Gamecocks rank second in the nation in defensive efficiency. It's hard to not like an under when you have the top two defenses in the country squaring off against each other.

Gonzaga's offense is solid, but they aren't up to par with their defense. South Carolina's offense struggled most of the year, and the Gamecocks can go through some long scoring droughts.

What else do I like about this play? This game is being played at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale. This is where the Arizona Cardinals play. It's a football stadium, and anytime you find a place that isn't built for basketball, you will have a difficult shooting backdrop. 

With the nerves of this time of the year combining with the massive football stadium and the two tremendous defenses, I like the under here. I think this game stays in the low 130's. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets meet in a key Western Conference clash on Friday night.

Houston is coming off a loss last night to Portland in the late night game on TNT. James Harden is dealing with a minor wrist injury, and he shot only 2/13 from 3 point range on Thursday night. Harden also attacked the rim less frequently than normal.

Golden State beat Houston on the road earlier this week 113-106. The Warriors defense has been the best in the NBA in the past ten games in terms of efficiency, and it really hasn't been even close. Golden State is allowing only 0.957 points per possession in their last nine contests.

Golden State has also played at only the 13th quickest tempo in the league in their last nine games. The Warriors aren't running as much as they were in the past, and they are winning with defense.

This number is so high that it only takes one low scoring quarter to cash this one.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Rockets last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 60% or higher. The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 home games. An 18-0 angle.

Take the under.

*4 Star NIT Total DOMINATION* The TCU Horned Frogs and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets meet in the NIT Finals on Thursday night. 

Early in the NIT you can bet that there are a lot of teams who don't want to be there, and the over is a great play in those games. Late in this tournament, the teams are very motivated to want to win something. I think both Georgia Tech and TCU are highly motivated now to finish the deal. That motivation leads to better defense.

Georgia Tech ranks as the #252 offense in the country in terms of efficiency. The Yellow Jackets just aren't very good shooters. They rely on getting in the lane and doing damage in there, and TCU has some good shot blockers. On the other hand, Georgia Tech is very good defensively. The Yellow Jackets are sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. I love the way this team works hard on defense at all times. 

TCU will look to slow the pace of the game down, and the Horned Frogs don't get to the free throw line much at all. I think this Georgia Tech defense will be one of the best defenses they have played against this year.

Neither team fouls much at all on defense, and that's a big perk with the new NIT rules (no one and one's). My numbers made this one in the high 120's. 

Now, for an angle that is hard to overlook. The under is a whopping 21-3 in the last 24 NIT semifinal or final games. Why is that important? These games are played at Madison Square Garden where, the under has been golden in college basketball in the long run. This is a tough arena for shooters.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Antonio Spurs host the Golden State Warriors Wednesday night. This is obviously a big game for both teams. 

There is a strong system that I follow late in the season in the NBA. In the system, you play the under when two good teams are playing each other on or after game number 58 of the regular season. If both teams have a win percentage of 60% or higher, and the game is a conference game, the under is hitting at a 60% clip in the last ten years.

Recently, I decided to take this system a step farther. When the home team plays at a pace of 96.2 possessions per game or slower on average, the under is a whopping 114-59 (66%) in the last ten years. This game fits this system as the Spurs average 96.1 possessions per game.

Golden State ranks only 12th in the NBA in tempo in their last 9 games. The Spurs rank 25th. The Warriors have slowed things down without Durant, and the Spurs have been slow paced all year.

Golden State is first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last nine games, and it isn't even close. The Spurs are fourth in the league in defensive efficiency in that span. Expect a tight game where the defenses work very hard.

The under is 7-0 in the Warriors last 7 vs. the Western Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NBA Southwest Division. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their last game. 

The under is 3-0-1 in the Spurs last 4 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two in San Antonio.

A 35-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star Tuesday CBB Red HOT CASH* The UCF Golden Knights and the TCU Horned Frogs meet in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. 

In the NIT and all of the small postseason tournaments, the over often has value for the majority of the tournament, but once you get this far into the tournament things change quickly. 

In the last 29 NIT Semifinals or finals, the under is 23-6. Madison Square Garden certainly plays a huge role in that. MSG is the single best under venue in the country when it comes to college basketball. It is a massive gym where shooters often struggle to find the range because of difficult shooting backdrops. 

Additionally, now the teams are really invested in this tournament. No one wants to go home now. The defensive effort increases at this point in the tournament by a large amount.

We have UCF who ranks second in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. TCU ranks 58th in defensive efficiency as well. Two good defenses and two teams who don't foul much.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors meet on Tuesday night in a big clash in the Western Conference. Obviously you don't think of unders when you think of these two teams, but Golden State has changed their stripes of late. This will be a contrarian play, but I'm taking the under here.

Golden State ranks 13th in the league in tempo in their last ten games. Earlier in the year, Golden State ranked 1st in pace of play. Narrow it down even more, and you'll see that Golden State ranks 21st in pace of play in their last five games. The Warriors have slowed things down in a big way. 

Golden State also ranks first in the NBA by a wide margin in defensive efficiency in the last ten and last five game sample sizes. Houston has been a league average defense this year.

Golden State ranks only 9th in offensive efficiency in their last ten games. 

With a total set at 234, this is set at such a high level that any one quarter being low should keep it under the total.

The under is 13-1 in the Warriors 14 games this year when playing without Kevin Durant. The under is 38-14 in the Warriors last 52 games. The under is also 4-1 in the last 5 games between these two teams.

The first two meetings between these two both stayed under the total in regulation. In this one, the Warriors don't have Kevin Durant's 25.3 points per game. The Rockets also don't have Ryan Anderson's 13.5 points per game due to an injury.

Take the under. 

*4 star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bulls have been terrible on offense of late. In their last 12 games, the Bulls ranks 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency. They are middle of the pack on the defensive end.

Milwaukee ranks sixth in defensive efficiency during that same time frame. The Bucks are middle of the pack on offense.

Milwaukee also ranks 29th in the league in tempo in their last 12 games. The Bucks have slowed down the pace drastically of late. Chicago ranks 18th, so they are slightly slower than the average team as well.

The oddsmakers haven't adjusted this number down enough for the new tempo Milwaukee is playing at of late.

The under is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The under is 5-0 in the Bucks last 5 home games overall. The under is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. A 17-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Angeles Lakers take on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night. The posted total here is high, but it isn't high enough.

In the past six games, the Los Angeles Lakers rank dead last (30th) in the NBA in defensive efficiency, and it isn't even close. Los Angeles is allowing a ridiculous 1.209 points per possession in their last six games. They've clearly given up on this end of the floor.

The second worst defense in the NBA in the last six games is the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are allowing 1.142 points per possession during that time. 

Both teams rank near the middle of the pack in offensive efficiency. The offenses should get plenty of open looks in this one. 

The Lakers continue to push the pace, and they rank in the top five in the NBA on a consistent basis in tempo. 

This game fits a nice late season over angle. Two teams who both have a winning percentage of 45% or less and the spread is 7 points or less either way. The game must be played in the last 12 games of the regular season. In the past ten years, in these spots, the over is hitting at a 61% clip.

The over is 5-0 in the Lakers last 5 vs. the Western Conference. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the Timberwolves last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 20-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Sweet 16 TOP Play!* The Florida Gators and Wisconsin Badgers square off in what should be a really good game on Friday night at Madison Square Garden. 

Florida ranks third in the nation in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin ranks seventh in the nation in defensive efficiency. Finding good looks should be very difficult for the offenses on Friday night. 

Madison Square Garden is the best under venue in college basketball. The under is a whopping 54-29 in the last 83 games played at Madison Square Garden. 

The shooting backdrop at MSG is tough enough for NBA shooters, and it has been too much for most college players. Very frequently there are some bad shooting numbers in games here. Specifically, three point field goal percentages are lower in games here by a large margin.

Wisconsin is excellent at controlling the pace of the game. I don't expect Florida to be able to run here. Neither of these teams are elite on the offensive end. Both teams are good at defending without fouling as well.

I think this game stays close the whole way, and I expect a final in the mid 120's. Take the under big. 

*3 Star Sweet 16 TGIF Total DOMINATION* The South Carolina Gamecocks were out of this world good on offense in the second half of their win over Duke last weekend. I had the over in that game and felt very lucky to have won that one.

The Gamecocks went long stretches in that game doing absolutely nothing on offense, and that's a concern for their offense moving forward. Baylor is a lot better defensively than Duke. The Bears rank 13th in the country in defensive efficiency. Their size and shot blocking ability on the interior should bother South Carolina a lot here.

South Carolina ranks fourth in the country in defensive efficiency. The Gamecocks force loads of turnovers (4th most in the country) and Baylor's weakness on offense is turnovers. The Baylor guards make too many poor decisions with the ball. That should lower their offensive efficiency quite a bit here.

Finally, this game is played in Madison Square Garden. The under is a whopping 54-29 in the last 83 college basketball games played at Madison Square Garden. This is a very tough gym for shooters, and I think we could see some ugly shooting numbers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Thursday Night Sweet 16 CASH* The Arizona Wildcats and Xavier Musketeers meet on Thursday night in San Jose. This is a new arena to these teams and that's a negative for shooting percentages. It's a hockey arena with relatively difficult shooting backdrops as well.

Xavier shot well over their season averages in their first two games in the NCAA Tournament. They made 11/17 from three point range in their 91-66 win over Florida State. The Musketeers now go up against an Arizona defense that only allows opponents to shoot 30.9% from long range. I think Xavier's shooting numbers come back down in this one.

Arizona has been relatively inconsistent on offense over the course of the year. The Wildcats are certainly good on offense, but they aren't elite.

Both of these teams like to play at a slow tempo, and with a total set this high, it will take some good shooting numbers to push it over the total. 

Last weekend's run on overs in the NCAA Tournament propped this number up a few points. 

The under is 5-1 in Xavier's last 6 NCAA Tournament games. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Chicago Bulls have been the worst offense in the NBA in the past ten games, and it isn't even close. Chicago is averaging 0.978 points per possession during that time. The second worst offense during that time is averaging 1.02 points per possession. Chicago ranks ninth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games.

The Toronto Raptors rank first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Raptors have been able to manage pretty well without Kyle Lowry thanks to their improved defense. They should play well against this bad Chicago offense. On the other side, Toronto's offensive efficiency numbers are down without Lowry, and that should come as no surprise.

A look at the recent pace of both teams shows both of these teams in the bottom ten in the league in tempo. Chicago is actually in the bottom five in tempo in their last five contests.

The under is 8-2 in the Bulls last 10 games. The under is 11-5 in the Raptors last 16 games. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The over has been the way to go in the past in the second round of these smaller postseason tournaments. With the new rules when it comes to no 1 and 1's and no 30 second reset on common fouls, the scoring is up a decent amount. 

It would be hard for me to take an under, and in this particular game, the total is set several points too low.

Cal State Bakersfield held Cal to some terrible shooting last game, but Cal is terrible offensively to start with and they were without their two leading scorers. It won't be as easy against Gian Clavell and the Colorado State Rams offense. 

Bakersfield does play slowly, but they also rank in the top 15 in most fouls committed this year. That's important since the new rules will magnify those issues. 

Colorado State's offense is high quality and the Rams played much quicker in their first postseason game than they did in the regular season. 

With a number set this low and the new rules, I'm on the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Akron Zips are excellent on offense, but they have really struggled defensively this year. Inside the MAC, overs were golden this year because there were so many good offenses and bad defenses. Akron fits the mold nicely.

UT Arlington just put up more than 100 points at BYU. UT Arlington loves to run, and I think they'll try to dictate the pace here. The Mavericks have a star in Kevin Hervey, and I'm not sure Akron has anyone who can guard him.

UT Arlington hasn't seen a big man like Isaiah Johnson for Akron, and he should do some real damage here. 

I see both teams scoring a lot in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins are an excellent offense and they play very quickly. There's no doubt they are capable of putting up a big number. In this case though, I feel like they are up against a team that has what it takes to turn it into a lower scoring game.

Cincinnati's Mick Cronin talked extensively in his interview with the Cincinnati media about the team's need to slow the game down and turn UCLA into a halfcourt offense. He said Cincinnati needs to use the clock and make UCLA work on defense for the length of the shot clock. Cincinnati is a top ten defense in the country. The Bearcats should be able to make UCLA take tougher shots than they are accustomed to taking.

Cincinnati ranks among the slowest 25 teams in the country, and they have made it clear they want to stall here. With a good defense and a team slowing the game down, this is a lot of points. 

I think this game will be tight, and I'll look for a low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Sunday College Hoops BEST Bet* The Duke Blue Devils and South Carolina Gamecocks meet in Greenville, SC on Sunday night. It should be a great atmosphere since there will be a bunch of fans there from each team.

South Carolina likes to run and the Gamecocks attack the rim well. They rely heavily on getting to the free throw line. The Gamecocks are led by a really underrated player in Sindarius Thornwell. 

Duke's offense has been good all year, and it has been excellent of late. The Blue Devils have too many weapons for most defenses. While South Carolina's defense is certainly good, they haven't been up against an offense this efficient all year. The Gamecocks defense commits a ton of fouls and Duke is great at the line at better than 75%. 

These games are being called very tight in the NCAA Tournament, and I think free throws push this one over the total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Baylor Bears are great at slowing the game down. Baylor ranks 331st in the nation in tempo. The Bears aren't going to let USC turn this game into a track meet. In the past, USC has been extremely fast paced. They are only slightly faster paced than the average team this year.

USC has been slowed down to a very slow tempo against both Providence and SMU. They shot the ball well in both games, but this Baylor defense ranks in the top ten in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Both of these teams have been good at defending without fouling this year. USC ranks 5th in that category and Baylor 58th in the nation.

Two good defenses here and a total that is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Saturday Night CRUSHER* The Milwaukee Bucks are now playing at the slowest pace of any team in the league, and it isn't even very close. If you look at their last 11 games, Milwaukee's games are nearly a full possession per game slower than anyone else in the NBA. The Bucks have decided that they want to win games by slowing things down and winning low scoring contests.

Golden State's offense is obviously very good, but on the whole, they have been a lot less efficient than normal of late. Their totals continued to be posted too high. The under is a whopping 36-17 in their last 53 games. Golden State is actually 19th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last 19 games. Golden State has been top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency all year long.

With Milwaukee slowing things down and Golden State playing good defense, this total is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star College Hoops Total DOMINATION* Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo. For this game to go over the posted total, there will have to be some pretty high shooting percentages. A total set at this price with two teams who play as slowly as MTSU and Butler is rare. 

MTSU is a very good team and I believe they'll be well prepared for this game. When they won against Michigan State last year, the Blue Raiders were just thrilled to have won one game in the tournament. This year, I expect MTSU to be extremely focused on reaching the Sweet 16.

Butler has played in a number of very low scoring games this season. The Bulldogs defense is much better than it was a year ago.

Both teams are excellent on the defensive glass so second chance points should be rare.

Take the under.

*4 Star Friday Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins are a tough to play unders with, but I have to do it here. UCLA faces a Kent State team that somehow got through the MAC title game despite being short on talent. Kent State grinds and Jimmy Hall is a really good player for them, but outside of him, the Golden Flashes are at a big talent disadvantage here.

If you are Kent State, you have to know the only way you have a chance in a game like this is to pound it inside and slow the game down. There's no way Kent State should want to run with UCLA here.

UCLA is likely to win this one going away, and the Bruins have plenty of reasons to want to rest their stars late in the game here. Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf are both at less than 100 percent now. They'll play again Saturday and that is a game that should be more competitive. 

On a neutral court where shooting backdrops are more difficult, this number is extremely high. That is especially true when you don't expect fouling late in the game with it being a blowout, and you expect one team to be trying to stall.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames have been playing really fast all year. UIC ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Flames are good at attacking the rim and getting to the line. That's important with the new experimental rules in this tournament. Getting rid of 1 and 1's and putting in all 2 shot fouls will definitely lead to more points. UIC shoots over 71% from the line. 

Stony Brook tends to play at a fairly slow pace, but in their non-conference games they did get out and run with some teams. I think their tempo looks slower than it truly is based on Stony Brook playing in a conference where everyone stalls. 

Stony Brook shoots 72.2% from the line, which is a big help with the new rules. 

I think this one gets to 150, which gives us some value on the line here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the South Dakota State Jackrabbits in the first round. South Dakota State ended the season playing very well, but the jump from playing Summit League competition to Gonzaga is massive.

South Dakota State scored at will through the Summit League play, but that is largely because no one in that conference is any good at defense. Take a look at how South Dakota State scored against teams in the non-conference slate. They only scored 58 against UC Irvine. They scored 59 against E Tennessee State. They scored 53 against Cal. 

Gonzaga has the second ranked defense in the country. The Bulldogs have so much athleticism on defense and they should hound South Dakota State here.

The move up to 156 points gives me plenty of value here. Gonzaga should score a lot here, but a total of 156 can be hard to reach when one team is struggling to score. I think 150 is about right.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Princeton Tigers get things tipped off in the Round of 64 with this battle. Princeton is a dangerous team given their unique style of play. The Tigers will look to slow the game down as much as possible.

Princeton played a number of games that were paced to less than 60 possessions this year. In fact, four of their last seven games have played to 59 possessions or slower. I think this will be another game that is that slow.

Notre Dame plays in the ACC where most of the teams try to push the pace. The Fighting Irish are one of the slowest teams in the league. In this one, Notre Dame will get to play their preferred style.

This one is on a neutral floor where shooting percentages are typically lower than normal. Neither team gets to the free throw line much at all. I think this number is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes were the fastest paced team in the Big Ten this year. Iowa had trouble finding opponents who wanted to run with them most of the year in the Big Ten. They won't have that same problem here.

South Dakota ranks 27th in the country in least time on average to put up a shot. The Coyotes are going to run with Iowa here. The Hawkeyes are 21st in that same category.

This is a smaller postseason tournament game, and these have trended strongly to the over in recent years. The early rounds of these games have trended over at a really high rate. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys rank 11th in the nation in tempo. This team has been great at turning every game into a track meet this year. 

Eastern Washington is a great offense. They have shooters on the outside and a great scorer inside in Wiley. The Eagles have been able to shoot the ball well all year long. They generally play at a slower tempo, but their offense is good and their defense is very bad.

The smaller postseason tournaments (CIT, NIT, CBI) have been great to over bettors in recent years. It's important to note that the rules have been changed for these tournaments as well. There won't be any 1 and 1's, just two shot bonuses. That certainly helps scoring. Additionally, the clock will reset to only 20 seconds instead of 30 after a foul on the floor or a kicked ball violation. The NCAA continues to try to push for more scoring. 

Plenty of pace and scoring chances in this one.

Take the over.