*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are second in the majors in wRC+ on the road. Seattle is also third in the majors in wOBA on the road. Seattle's lineup has hit Nick Pivetta extremely well in the past. Pivetta has allowed a whopping .443 weighted on base average in 96 plate appearances. He has allowed ten home runs in those 96 plate appearances as well.

Pivetta started the season on fire, but he has struggled a bit more in his last couple starts. He isn't a bad pitcher by any means, but I do think he is due for some regression to the mean. 

Emerson Hancock is a below average starter up against an above average San Diego lineup. Hancock has a 6.91 ERA and a 5.94 expected ERA so far this season. His expected batting average allowed is in the bottom 4% of all pitchers in the majors according to Baseball Savant. The Padres should have plenty of scoring chances.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks were embarrassed with their defensive performance in Game 5. Tom Thibodeau is a defensive minded coach, and he talked a lot about their poor closeouts and poor transition defense last game. 

Boston put up a ridiculous 1.396 points per possession on offense last game. The Celtics aren't likely to shoot the ball as well here, and the Knicks are almost surely going to contest those jumpers much better than they did last game.

The pace in Game 5 was slower than the series average at just 91 possessions. As the games get bigger the pace usually slows down. If we assume a pace of 91 possessions again, it would take both teams averaging about 1.16 points per possession (very high for playoff basketball) for this to get to the total.

Betting on game 6 and game 7 unders in the NBA playoffs has been a big winning proposition in the long term. Blindly betting on these in the past 16 years has given under bettors an ROI of 11.2%.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets go back home down 3-2 and facing elimination if they lose this game. Oklahoma City fought very hard and dominated Denver in the 4th quarter in Game 5 to get a 3-2 series lead. 

The last three games have seen the final totals finish at 217 (in overtime), 179, and 217 total points. The pace has slowed down some and the defenses have been forcing quite a few turnovers.

In the NBA playoffs, Game 6 and Game 7 unders have done well, and when it is the team oddsmakers rate higher on the road that has been especially true. For example, when home teams in game 6 or 7 who are priced at -2.5 to +10.5 on the spread, the under is a whopping 65-31 to the under. The average margin is more than 5.5 points to the under.

Denver isn't likely to give up easily and I like this one to be a defensive battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense isn't good. The Royals are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average. Witt is a star, but he doesn't have enough help around him in this lineup.

Even at this low number, 10 of the Royals last 14 games have gone under this total. The Royals have an above average bullpen, and their defense is very good. 

Cole Ragans starts here, and Ragans has a 3.79 ERA, but an excellent 2.28 expected ERA and a 2.38 FIP. Ragans has a .347 batting average on balls in play allowed so far this year, and that is bound to positively regress toward the mean over time. Ragans is striking out an insane 14.38 batters per nine innings, and he is one of the best lefties in the majors.

Garrett Crochet has a 2.02 ERA and 2.84 FIP. Crochet is another excellent lefty. The Boston left hander has allowed two runs or fewer in six of eight starts this year. He should be able to slow this Kansas City offense.

The home plate umpire here is Ron Kulpa, who is an excellent under umpire based on his long history of a high strikeout/walk ratio. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees start Will Warren here. Warren has plenty of potential, but thus far it just has not worked out. He had a 5.23 ERA in Triple A in 2023. He had an ERA over 10 in a little over 22 innings last year. He has a 5.67 ERA so far this season. He is in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in baseball in average exit velocity allowed (93.7 mph). He has a home run problem.

Osvaldo Bido ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in the majors in strikeout rate. He is in the bottom 25% in expected ERA as well. 

The Yankees are first in the majors in most offensive categories. The Athletics are top ten in most of them too. 

Sutter Park is the second most hitter friendly park in the majors so far this year. These two lineups should get plenty of scoring chances in this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks both rank in the top five in the majors in total offense. They are two deep lineups with the ability to score through stringing together singles or through the long  ball. 

Eduardo Rodriguez has a 5.92 ERA on the year, and he has been torched by the Dodgers lineup in the past. The Dodgers have a .329 batting average and a .382 wOBA against him in his career. Freddie Freeman has really hit him hard.

Roki Sasaki has major control problems. He has 20 walks in his 30 and 1/3 innings pitched. He's walked at least two batters in every start despite only going six innings once all season. He isn't getting batters to swing at the balls out of the strike zone thus far.

Chase Field is a top three or four hitters park with the roof open and the roof is scheduled to be open for this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mariners take on the Athletics in Sacramento on Tuesday night. Seattle is first in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. They get to play in a very hitter friendly park in Sacramento on Tuesday night against a middle of the road left handed starter in Springs. 

Springs has a 7.20 ERA and a .374 wOBA allowed in games at Sacramento. On the road, Springs has a 3.26 ERA and a .270 wOBA allowed. 

Emerson Hancock starts for the Mariners here. Hancock has a 6.62 ERA on the season thus far. Hancock just doesn't get enough swings and misses with his stuff. He is in the 14th percentile in the majors in whiff rate and 13th percentile in chase rate. The Athletics offense has some young talent and I think they'll be able to do damage here.

Both bullpens have been used heavily of late, especially after going into extra innings on Monday night.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday evening. Arizona is 6th in the majors in runs per game. The Phillies are 5th in the majors in runs per game at home. 

Aaron Nola has lost velocity on his fastball, and his breaking pitches have had far less run to them this year. Nola is in the 24th percentile of major league pitchers in expected batting average allowed. He has a 5.40 ERA on the season. He has 11 walks in his last four starts. 

Brandon Pfaadt is due for some regression. He has a 2.78 ERA and a 3.93 FIP and a 5.01 expected ERA. 

The weather calls for winds of about 10-12 mph with higher gusts blowing out toward center and left center field during the game. There is a chance for some rain/thunderstorms popping up during this game. 

If there is a rain delay, the bullpens might get some extra work. Both of these bullpens are in the bottom ten in the majors in bullpen ERA.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets shot lights out in their 131-115 win over the Clippers in Denver on Tuesday night. The Clippers shot it really well too. Denver shot 56% from the floor and the Clippers shot 52.4% from the floor. The Nuggets put up a ridiculous 1.394 points per possession in that one. The Clippers had 1.211 points per possession. 

For the series as a whole, four of the five games have been at 207 points or fewer at the end of regulation. Three of the five games have been at 200 points or lower at the end of regulation. 

Potential elimination games in the NBA playoffs have been good to the under in the long run. That is especially the case when we get to game six and game seven. The tendency is for the game to slow down and the defenses to be at their best. The under in game 6 and game 7 in the first round is 60-40 in the last 100 games.

The Clippers are a good defensive team, and I think they will be embarrassed by their poor defensive effort on Tuesday night. 

The average pace in this series is just 91 possessions. That requires an average of both teams averaging 1.17 points per possession or so to get to this total. The pace might be a bit slower here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks meet in Detroit in Game 6 of what has been a really competitive series. The young Pistons have been playing some great basketball down the stretch in the regular season, and this has been a very evenly played series. 

New York was one of the slower paced teams in the league this year. The Knicks should lean on their defense and slow this game down. 

Detroit has been physical down low and that has thrown off the Knicks quite a bit in this series. The Pistons sometimes don't have enough scoring options in the key moments. 

The under is 130-81 in the last 211 in Game 6 or Game 7 of the NBA playoffs. The pace has slowed a bit in the last two games between these two teams. 

A lot on the line in this one. I'll take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers have had a ton of low scoring games this year. In fact, 13 of the Rangers last 14 games have gone under this posted total. Their last six games have all finished with 7 total runs or fewer. 

The A's have been a relatively high scoring team, but they play in Sacramento for their home games and that is a clear hitters park. Even with that being the case, 10 of their last 15 games overall have finished under 8.5.

Jacob Degrom is still working back from his injury, but he has looked much better in his last couple starts. Degrom is still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and I think he can have a solid start here.

Jacob Lopez starts for the A's here. The Rangers offense is bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average this year. 

Texas is 5th in bullpen FIP and the Athletics are 11th, so these are two solid bullpens.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros have one of the best bullpens in baseball. They are loaded with depth in the bullpen, and they are second in the majors in FIP and 4th in ERA. Ronel Blanco has pitched into some bad luck, and he starts in this one. I still think Blanco is at least a pretty good starting pitcher. His expected ERA is more than 1 full run lower than his ERA right now. 

Jack Flaherty starts for the Tigers. Flaherty is a proven very good right handed pitcher. He has a 2.63 ERA and a 3.07 FIP. Flaherty is striking out 11.20 batters per nine innings. The Tigers bullpen is also ranked top five in the majors in ERA.

The Astros offense is bottom five in the majors against right handed pitching. The Tigers offense is below average against righties. 

Both pitchers have had great success going against the opposing lineups in this one. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado Rockies are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average at home. Coors Field is obviously a fantastic hitters park. The Cincinnati Reds are third in the majors in wOBA on the road so far this year. 

Nick Lodolo is a good pitcher, but his strikeout rate is down this year and he is due for regression. A pitcher due for this much regression heading to Coors Field is a warning sign.

Ryan Feltner has been much worse at Coors Field in his career, and he has been far worse in the first half of the season than he has been in the second half of the season in his career.

These two bullpens are very bad. The Rockies bullpen is third worst in the majors in FIP. The Reds bullpen is worst in the majors in FIP. Both of them are bottom three in the majors in SIERA as well. There should be plenty of scoring chances late in this one.

Coors Field day games with warm temperatures have been great to over bettors. That factor alone has been north of 60% in the last decade. The average wind in this one is blowing out to center field at about 17 or 18 mph. These are great conditions for the hitters.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers were third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 15 games of the regular season. The Clippers when healthy have been excellent on defense. The Nuggets have an extremely high 16.5% turnover rate in the series. 

Michael Porter Jr. is trying to play through an injury. Jamal Murray isn't completely healthy. Russell Westbrook is injured now too. There is so much pressure on Jokic to dominate all the time now. The Nuggets other options just aren't reliable. 

The pace in this series has averaged about 91 possessions. That requires about 1.17 points per possession to get to this total. With turnovers and inefficient shooting that is hard to get to without a major foul fest.

James Harden is inconsistent offensively in the playoffs. The Nuggets defense should be a bit better in this game.

The Clippers defense is the best unit on the floor in this series. I like the value to the under again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees are tied for the top spot in the majors in weighted on base average offensively. They are first in the majors in wRC+. This is a deep lineup with a ton of power all through the lineup. The Yankees hitters have tremendous career stats against Jose Berrios. In 113 plate appearances against the Yankees, Berrios has allowed a .323 batting average and a .437 wOBA. Aaron Judge has 5 career home runs against Berrios. Cody Bellinger is 3/4 with a homer against him as well. Berrios has a 5.02 ERA and a 5.43 FIP on the season thus far.

Carlos Carrasco has a 6.53 ERA and a 5.74 FIP on the season. Carrasco gives up loads of hard contact and has a very high home run rate allowed. The Blue Jays do have some power in the lineup, and Carrasco is completely capable of giving up a big number here.

The two bullpens are average and there should be scoring chances against them as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers go home to host the Denver Nuggets in Game 3. This series couldn't have been closer in the first two games in Denver. I think this series will be extremely tight the whole way.

The first two games in this series were low scoring. Game one was 98-98 before overtime. Game two was 105-102. It hasn't been poor shooting numbers either. The pace numbers have slowed down a lot from the regular season meetings. The games weren't artificially low. The totals were just set too high. Both of these teams have some defensive stoppers, and open looks have been difficult to find thus far. 

Kawhi Leonard has picked up his level a lot in the postseason. The Nuggets aren't as efficient on offense with Westbrook taking questionable shots too often. On the other side, the Clippers are capable of being great on offense, but they are inconsistent and go through scoring droughts.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rockets and Warriors met five times this year. Four of the five games finished well below this total. In fact, four of the five games were 203 total points or lower. 

The Rockets and Warriors both finished top seven in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both of these teams finished with an average tempo that was slightly slower than the average tempo in the NBA overall. The Warriors played a bit slower in their games with Jimmy Butler in the lineup. 

The Rockets are a good team, but they lack that elite scorer to take over a game. Houston does play tremendous team defense though. They will make Golden State work very hard to get open looks.

The game changes quite a bit in the playoffs, and I think the pace here will be even slower than their regular season meetings. The shooting numbers might be a bit higher, but I think it will take some abnormally hot shooting to get past this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 12 mph with gusts up to 18 mph at Citi Field for this Sunday afternoon battle between the Cardinals and Mets. 

Clay Holmes is off to a nice start for the Mets. He has a 3.66 ERA and his FIP is 2.17, which suggests he has gotten at least somewhat unlucky as well. Holmes is striking out 12.81 batters per nine innings.

Sonny Gray has a solid 3.13 ERA and a 3.94 FIP. Gray has been better in the first half of the season than the second throughout his career. He has also been better on the road.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the top two or three under umpires in baseball. He is a strike caller who frustrates the batters game after game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Kings are first in the NHL in goals scored in the last 20 games at 78 goals. The Kings should be able to do damage against a Calgary defense that has struggled of late.

Calgary did struggle with scoring much of the year, but the Flames have 17 goals in their last four games. Calgary is out of the playoff race, but the Flames are playing free and putting the puck in the net.

This is a late season contest that doesn't really matter much. The Kings know their playoff matchup and the Flames are done for the year here. These late season contests have trended over heavily.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The late season angle of taking overs (especially lower overs) in games that don't mean much to the two teams has been very strong in the NHL in the last decade. 

Detroit has missed the playoffs once again. The New Jersey Devils are locked into their first round matchup. There isn't much of anything to play for in this one, and I expect that to help the scoring.

The last two meetings between these two easily surpassed this total.

The Devils have seen three of their last four games go over this total. The Red Wings last two games totaled 7 and 10 goals.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense is struggling in a big way. Kansas City has scored 3 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 8 games. Kansas City has seen 9 of their last 10 games stay under 8.5 runs. 

Clarke Schmidt turned into a very solid starter last year. I don't see the Royals snapping out of their ugly offensive funk in this one against him. 

Kris Bubic has added a sweeper to his pitching arsenal, and Bubic has allowed only 2 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings pitched this season. He has a whopping 21 strikeouts on the season already.

Ryan Blakeney is a help to the pitchers with his bigger strike zone behind home plate. 

Though the wind is blowing out a bit here, the temperatures will be very chilly in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Spencer Schwellenbach has pitched as well as anyone in the majors so far this year. Schwellenbach has allowed a grand total of one run in 20 innings pitched this season. He has only issued three walks and has 19 strikeouts. 

Kevin Gausman has been very good this year. Gausman has just three walks in 19 and 1/3 innings pitched this year. He does a good job keeping the ball down in the strike zone and keeping it in the park. 

Roberto Ortiz is a good under umpire. Ortiz should help the pitchers get a few extra strikes called on the corners in this one.

Neither offense is in great form and I think the pitchers will have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Blackhawks are one of the worst teams in the NHL. They have allowed the most goals of anyone in the NHL this year. Chicago is playing their last game of the season here. The Blackhawks have nothing to play for, and they can just let loose and play a fast paced game where scoring chances are even higher than normal.

Ottawa is locked into their spot, and the Senators have no reason to fight as hard in this game as they do once they are in the playoffs. The Senators have had three straight games get to 7 goals.

Late season NHL games between mediocre (Ottawa) and bad teams (Chicago) have trended strongly toward the over. The less there is to play for the over has trended quite strongly in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NHL regular season is about to come to a close. The last couple games of the season have trended strongly to the over for teams who are average or below average. Chicago is among the very worst teams, and they have the single worst defense/goaltending in the entire league.

Chicago has allowed the most goals in the NHL. The Blackhawks have allowed 5 goals in six of their last nine games. 

Montreal has allowed the 7th most goals in the league. Chicago is averaging 3.2 goals per game in their last ten contests, and the Blackhawks should be playing free in this one.

Montreal needs this game and I suspect they'll score plenty.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers were shut out by Ben Brown and the Chicago Cubs last night. The Dodgers stellar lineup isn't going to be shut out many times this year, and now they are up against a subpar starting pitcher in Colin Rea. Rea is likely to make the start here since Justin Steele is banged up. Rea has allowed a .304 average and a .377 weighted on base average against this Dodgers lineup. 

Tyler Glasnow has a lot of good stuff, but he has been banged up a lot and he has been inconsistent. He hasn't had his best command this year. 

The Cubs and Dodgers are two top five offenses in the majors. Both of these teams have plenty of blowup potential on offense to have big innings. Five of the Dodgers last six games have finished with 10 runs or more total scored. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors and LA Clippers have a bunch on the line on Saturday afternoon in the Bay Area.  Both teams are fighting to stay out of the play in tournament.  Both teams could finish seventh with a loss here. 

Steph Curry is listed as questionable with a hand injury. I am going to assume Curry will play here. Curry may be a bit hampered, but I'm not betting the under based on this injury. 

Golden State is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last eight games. Golden State has really made a run largely because of some much improved defense in recent months. They have been playing at an average or slightly below average pace on offense too. 

The LA Clippers are second in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last eight games. The Clippers are bottom 8 in the NBA in tempo during that time as well. 

Steph Curry was quoted as saying this game would have a Game 7 feeling because of what is on the line. I think the pace slows a bit and the defenses have the upper hand.

All three meetings between these two teams this year have stayed under this number.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sandy Alcantara is back and pitching very well again. Alcantara sits at 10.24 strikeouts per nine innings so far this season. Alcantara has always been very good at home, and his numbers against the Nationals are stellar. The current Nationals hitters have a miserable .174 batting average and a .215 weighted on base average against Alcantara. It isn't a small sample size either. Those numbers are from a large sample of 125 plate appearances. I trust Alcantara to pitch well here.

The Marlins have one of the worst offenses in the majors. They have been worse against right handed pitching so far this year. Despite an above average batting average on balls in play, the Marlins have a bottom ten wOBA against right handed pitching this season.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he has been one of the three best under umpires in baseball for many years in a row. He consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and he frustrates a lot of hitters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a big game for both teams. There is a major battle going on for the 4th-8th spots in the NBA Western Conference. Everyone wants to get in the top six to avoid the play in. Right now, Memphis is 7th in the standings and Minnesota is 8th. One game separates 4th from 8th though, so there is plenty of room for movement in the final days.

Memphis has a new coach and they have slowed their pace down slightly. Minnesota is a top ten defense in the NBA lately. The Timberwolves have been going through scoring droughts though with many of the secondary scoring options struggling in recent contests.

The importance of this game is likely to slow things down a bit. The posted total is so high that I have to side with the under with 58 points per quarter still leading to an under.

I expect a little tighter defense than usual in this Western Conference battle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Athletics are playing home games in Sacramento and before the season there were some very smart people who expected this field to play as a solid overs park, especially on warmer days in Sacramento. Oakland Coliseum was a great pitchers park, and this is a huge change from that. 

Last night's 10-4 win by the A's was a wild one. It was 6-3 in the first inning. The A's offense is a bit better than most people realize. Both Butler and Rooker are budding stars and the lineup has some decent power. Vasquez starts for the Padres, and while he hasn't given up many runs this year, his lack of control and batted ball luck so far this year suggest regression is coming for him.

Bido starts for the A's here, and the Padres solid lineup should be able to get to him here too. San Diego got 11 hits last night and stranded a bunch of guys on base.

The two bullpens are overrated and both teams should see scoring chances later in the game too.

The weather here calls for temperatures nearing 80 degrees by the end of this afternoon. The ball should carry well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* There have been four games played in Sacramento where the Athletics are playing their home games. The lowest scoring game has had a total of nine runs. The four games have averaged 13.25 runs per game. This is clearly a good park for hitters. The adjustment from Oakland Coliseum which was a great pitchers park to this park is a massive one. The temperature is slowly warming up in Sacramento, so the ball should be flying well.

Springs is a middle of the road left handed pitcher. I expect the Padres to be a good team against lefties this year. San Diego has a deep lineup and I think easy innings will be tough to come by in this one for Springs.

Dylan Cease is a good starting pitcher. Cease is a bit inconsistent though, and the A's do have some power in their lineup. Rooker is still underrated by many people.

The Padres have an average bullpen at best. The Athletics bullpen is clearly below average.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Blue Jays offense has been a little better than average so far this year, but the Blue Jays have had good batted ball luck. They rank fourth in the majors in batting average on balls in play. This isn't a particularly deep lineup. 

The New York Mets offense hasn't performed well so far this year. I do think they are better than what they have shown overall, but these are tough hitting conditions and against a quality pitcher.

The weather calls for cooler conditions with winds blowing in during this game. The home plate umpire is Doug Eddings who is one of the two or three biggest under umpires in the majors. Eddings consistently has extremely high strikeout/walk ratios. 

David Peterson has been good at Citi Field in his career. Bowden Francis had a 3.30 ERA last year, and his expected ERA was 3.39 so it was no fluke. He has good control and has quality upside.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees offense has been the best in baseball so far this year. The Yankees have the best weighted on base average in the majors despite having an average or slightly below batting average on balls in play. The Yankees are an excellent and deep lineup.

Marcus Stroman is past his prime, and Stroman has been hit hard by this Pirates lineup. The current Pirates lineup has a .359 weighted on base average against Stroman. 

Bailey Falter is a below average lefty and the Yankees have all sorts of guys who can crush left handed pitching.

The wind will be blowing out in this one and it will be warm at around 70 degrees in Pittsburgh. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Toronto Raptors are fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. Toronto is also second to last in offensive efficiency during that time. They have scored 108 points or fewer in five of their last ten games. They will be without R.J. Barrett today, and he is averaging 22 points per game this season. Scottie Barnes is their leader and he is questionable at best also.

Detroit will be without Tobias Harris which is a pretty big loss, and Cade Cunningham is questionable here as well. If Cunningham plays he isn't likely to be 100 percent. 

Detroit is 9th best in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season. I like their chances to slow down this shorthanded Toronto Raptors offense. The Pistons won't have some of their go to guys on offense though. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cubs have one of the best offenses in baseball. They have scored 10.33 runs per game in their last three games. This Cubs lineup is one of the deepest in baseball. There aren't many easy outs in this lineup. 

The Athletics are playing home games in Sacramento, and this park is much more hitter friendly than the Oakland Coliseum was. The Athletics lineup is likely to be a good amount better at home than on the road this season.

Jameson Taillon starts for the Cubs. His velocity has been down quite a bit in the past year, and he has in general trended downward. He is a bit past his prime, and I think the Athletics should create scoring opportunities here.

Jeffrey Springs starts for the A's in this one. Springs is coming off a great start in the most pitcher friendly ballpark in baseball in Seattle. I think he'll have a tougher time here against this Cubs offense. 

This is a day game and I think the ball will be carrying well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves lineup took another hit when Jurickson Profar was suspended for using PEDs yesterday. The Braves are still without Ronald Acuna Jr. and this offense has scored just 8 runs in five games this season. Atlanta has scored one total run in their last three games. 

Dustin May has a superb 2.66 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. May is a fast starter, and I like this matchup for him against a cold Braves lineup. 

Chris Sale definitely has his work cut out for him against an excellent Dodgers lineup, but Sale has an impressive .219 batting average allowed against this lineup in his career. Sale has a 2.93 ERA in the first half of the season and is known for a being a fast starter as well.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the business. He is a strike caller who will give the pitchers the corner. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans are up to 4th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Michigan State has a defensive mindset under Tom Izzo. No one has a great answer for Johni Broome, but Michigan State has a good interior defense and some solid depth in the frontcourt. Michigan State has played 10 of their last 13 games under this total.

Auburn is 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Tigers are 4th in the nation in blocked shots percentage. Michigan State takes a lot of mid range jumpers, and Auburn has been great at defending in the mid range. 

Auburn is 134th in the nation in tempo, so they aren't much faster than average. Michigan State is exactly at the average pace in the country. This is a huge game with a berth in the Final Four on the line. 

State Farm Arena has been good to under bettors in the long haul. This is a pretty high total given the situations here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Seattle's T Mobile Park has been the single most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors in the last three years. It hasn't been very close.

J.P. Sears has allowed a .191 batting average and an impressive .259 weighted on base average in 101 plate appearances against this Seattle Mariners lineup. Sears is a solid lefty for the A's, and he has a stellar 1.59 ERA in 17 innings pitched at T Mobile Park.

Bryan Woo starts for the Mariners. Woo has an amazing 0.965 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. Woo has allowed a .167 batting average and a tremendous .182 wOBA in 76 plate appearances against this Athletics lineup.

These two lineups should struggle to get things going. Both of these lineups lack depth.

John Bacon is the umpire here and the under was 17-6 in his games behind home plate last season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans have gone on a big run at the end of the season thanks to their defense. That has become the calling card of this Tom Izzo team late in the season. Michigan State is 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency for the season, and the Spartans defense has been even better in the last half of the season. 

Ole Miss has a defensive minded coach in Chris Beard. Ole Miss just put up 1.34 points per possession against a shorthanded Iowa State team, but I don't expect them to light up Michigan State. Ole Miss is 134th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Rebels are a good offense, but they aren't elite. Ole Miss is 21st in the nation in defensive efficiency.

State Farm Arena is a massive arena that is tougher shooting backdrops than these teams normally face. 

We just saw Michigan State slow down New Mexico (7th in the nation in tempo) to 65 possessions in their Round of 32 win.

I think both teams will take quite a few tough shots here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia 76ers have played in five straight games that have finished with 233 total points or more. Philadelphia has allowed 122 points or more in 7 of their last 9 contests. The 76ers defense ranks third worst in defensive efficiency in the NBA in the last 10 games. The New Orleans Pelicans rank dead last in defensive efficiency during that time period. 

New Orleans has seen 234 points or more scored in 5 of their last 9. They have allowed 134 and 136 points in their last two games. 

These are two teams who have nothing to play for and that has lead to some wild high scoring games of late. The 76ers are 7th in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games, and the Pelicans are 17th. There should be a relatively quick pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers are a top three defense in the country in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage defense. The Volunteers have an elite shot blocker in Felix Okpara. Jahmai Mashack is one of the best individual defenders in the country. UCLA is going to have to work very hard for their points in this one. 

UCLA is 15th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bruins are great at forcing turnovers. They have suffered a bit in their overall defensive numbers because opponents have shot it very well from the free throw line, but we know there is no skill to free throw defense. UCLA is second in non-steal turnovers which means steals that are a dead ball. These are very helpful for unders. 

UCLA is 312th in the nation in tempo. Tennessee is 346th out of 364 teams in the country in tempo. This game should be a real grinder played in the halfcourt. 

UCLA's offense has been terrible away from home. Tennessee is generally happy to stall and use a lot of clock when they have a lead.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats are 54th in the country in tempo. Arizona played against a lot of Big 12 teams who wanted to slow the pace down this year. When Arizona played against other fast paced opponents, the scores got very high quickly. Arizona lost to BYU 96-95. The Wildcats beat Arizona State 113-100. They beat Oklahoma State 92-78.

Akron is 16th in the nation in tempo. The Zips love to run and gun. Akron has five regular players who shoot at least 36.5% from 3 point range. Arizona ranks 234th in the country in open 3 rate allowed on defense. On the other side, Akron's defense leaves a lot to be desired. Akron gave up 87 points to St. Mary's, who is far from a fast paced offensive opponent. Akron allowed 100 points against Milwaukee. They won 92-84 against Omaha. Akron is an ugly 340th in open 3 rate allowed on defense.

I think both teams will be happy to run and this will turn into a track meet. Akron is also way too short for Arizona, and the Wildcats should thrive on second chance opportunities here.

It's a high number, but I think this one could get very high.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils are far better defensively than they are given credit for this season. Cooper Flagg is expected to play in this game, but one would assume he will play less minutes than normal. 

Mount St. Mary's is coming off one of their best shooting performances in the past couple years in their win against American in the first four. It will be a whole lot more difficult in this one for them to get open looks. Duke is the tallest team in the country. Mount St. Mary's is 230th in height. The Duke length is going to overwhelm the Mountaineers.

Duke is 267th in the country in tempo. Mount St. Mary's is 165th in the country in tempo, but it would be pretty shocking to see them want to run against a far superior team. 

Jon Scheyer's teams have been under machines in the NCAA Tournament. Duke is 6-0 to the under in Scheyer's games as a head coach, and the average margin is nearly 13 points under the posted total.

I think Duke's defense puts the clamps down and they slow the pace with a big lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri Tigers and Drake Bulldogs play in a battle that is a major contrast in styles. Drake plays at the slowest pace of anyone in the country. Missouri is 55th quickest in the country in terms of average possession length. 

Missouri has played 33 games this year. Only two of them have gone under this total. In fact, only two of their games all season have finished with less than 139 points. The Tigers are 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are second in the country in FTA/FGA, so they are living at the free throw line. 

Drake plays slowly, but they aren't great on defense. The Bulldogs are 228th effective field goal percentage defense. They are outside the top 300 in the country in near proximity defense. I think Missouri can make them pay near the basket in this one. 

Drake is 11th in the nation in FTA/FGA. The Tigers foul a lot and Drake should get to the stripe a lot here. Drake is great on the offensive glass, and one of Missouri's biggest weakness is defensive rebounding.

Drake played Vanderbilt earlier this year and it was their fastest paced game of the season. It was an 81-70 final. I don't think this one will be that high, but I think Missouri can score enough to force Drake to speed up slightly. These two offenses are both very solid.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs are a tricky #13 seed. They showed that in their upset of Auburn last year in the first round. 

Texas A&M under Buzz Williams is a defensive-minded team. Texas A&M is 7th in the country in defensive efficiency. The Aggies are going to make Yale work for their points. Yale likes to score from close to the hoop, but that is the strength of the Texas A&M defense. Texas A&M has two elite shot blockers. 

The Texas A&M offense isn't efficient in the halfcourt. They are heavily reliant on offensive rebounds and second chance opportunities. Texas A&M is 317th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are first in offensive rebounding percentage nationally, but Yale is 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage, and Yale is actually a taller team than Texas A&M. Yale is 20th best in the country at preventing second chance points.

Both teams are slightly slower than the average team in the country tempo wise. With a spread at 7.5 (less chance of overtime or a foul fest) and a relatively high total here, I'm going to go under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The early rounds (especially round one and round two) of the NIT and the smaller postseason tournaments have been very good over bets in the long run. That is especially true when the posted total is set at a low number. 

North Texas is one of the slowest paced teams in the country, and I can certainly understand the number being set relatively low here. The Mean Green do get to the free throw line a lot though, and they shoot 77.6% from the charity stripe. 

Furman is just 191st in defensive efficiency. The Paladins have struggled on the defensive glass all season, and North Texas is likely to take advantage in that area. 

Furman should get their chances at the free throw line as well, since North Texas is 321st defensively in FTA/FGA. 

The over has been near 60% in the early rounds of the NIT in the lowest totaled games. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys played in a really difficult Big 12. Steve Lutz did a great job at his previous jobs, and I would give him some time to see if it will work here. One thing we know for sure is his teams are going to push the tempo to the max. Western Kentucky finished first in the nation in tempo with him as their coach last year. Oklahoma State is 15th nationally in tempo this season. 

Wichita State is 101st overall in tempo and 72nd in average possession length. They should be happy to run in this contest. Wichita State plays in an AAC with quite a few teams who like to slow the pace down. The Shockers are good at getting to the free throw line, and Oklahoma State fouls nearly as much as anyone in the country.

Oklahoma State is going to use full court pressure and be very aggressive. Wichita State has struggled with this during the season, and I would expect some quick points for the Cowboys here.

An up and down track meet in terms of tempo. As long as the shooting numbers aren't terrible, I think this gets pretty high scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early start in Dallas. It is a noon local start in Dallas. 

The Mavericks have been much better on defense at home this year than on the road. Dallas is 26th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games. They are struggling to score in the halfcourt. 

Philadelphia is one of the most banged up teams in the NBA. The 76ers lack elite scoring options now. Philadelphia is 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in their last eight games, so they too are struggling quite a bit on offense.

The early Sunday unders have been good in the last 15 years, and they have been even better in the Western Conference.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers have won a 62-58 contest two days ago and a 57-55 contest on Friday. They play Iona in a game where two lower seeds pulled upsets and got to the title game.

Iona's game against Quinnipiac went over the total on Friday, but it was just 65 possessions. The Quinnipiac defense was very weak in the paint in that game. Mt. St. Mary's is first in shot selection allowed in the MAAC, and I think they can make things tougher on Iona.

Iona's pressure defense should give the Mountaineers guards a lot of trouble. I think Mt. St. Mary's will waste quite a few possessions here. 

Conference tournament final games have been good to under bettors especially in these smaller leagues. It is win and get to the NCAA Tournament or lose and fall just short of that huge goal.

The under is 37-17 at Boardwalk Hall where this game is being played. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have been a great defensive team for several years now. Joe Gallo does a tremendous job setting up this matchup zone pressure they use to slow the game down and keep the opposition uncomfortable at all times. 

Mount St. Mary's is first in the MAAC in shot selection allowed according to Shot Quality. The Merrimack offense is too reliant on Clark to take over. Merrimack plays very slowly on offense, and they often end with poor shots near the buzzer.

Merrimack is 4th nationally in turnover percentage on defense. Mount St. Mary's is 356th in turnover percentage on offense. 

These two teams are first and third in the conference at defending without fouling.

Boardwalk Hall is 36-16 to the under in the MAAC Tournament games. This is a very good under gym with the large arena often bothering shooters.

Merrimack has seen 5 of their last 7 games stay under this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Quinnipiac Bobcats and Iona Gaels meet in the MAAC Semifinals at Boardwalk Hall on Friday night. 

Boardwalk Hall is 36-16 to the under in MAAC games. Totals of 134 or higher are a whopping 22-5 to the under here in MAAC Tournament games. This is a tough shooting backdrop for teams that are not accustomed to such a large gym.

Quinnipiac is elite on the defensive glass, and Iona's best offense is their offensive rebounding and second chance points.

Iona is great at forcing turnovers and Quinnipiac struggles to take care of the basketball. 

Both of these teams are below average in getting to the free throw line over the course of the season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mount St. Mary's and Marist are first and second in the MAAC in shot selection allowed. 

Mount St. Mary's is first in FTA/FGA on defense, so they aren't giving opponents many shots at the stripe. They are also third in defensive rebounding. 

Marist is the slowest paced team in the MAAC. The Red Foxes are 363rd out of 364 teams in the country in FTA/FGA on offense. 

The two regular season meetings between these two teams finished 53-50 and 62-52. Both easily stayed under and now we have a win or go home game at a tough venue.

The under has been money at Boardwalk Hall in the last few seasons.

I expect a slow paced low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays will play DePaul in the Big East Tournament on Thursday night. DePaul upset Georgetown in the first round and is now a double digit underdog to Creighton.

Creighton is an average tempo team, and DePaul likes to slow the game down. Creighton is first in the nation at defending without fouling. DePaul is a solid 78th out of 364 at defending without fouling. 

These two teams met twice in the regular season with combined total points of 122 and 140 points in those games. Creighton will be able to score down low with Kalkbrenner here, but I don't think DePaul has many paths to scoring in this one. Creighton is elite on the defensive glass, and DePaul is going to end up taking a bunch of long range jumpers here. Unless DePaul catches fire from deep against a good Creighton 3 point defense, I think DePaul struggles to score.

Madison Square Garden is one of the best under venues in college basketball. All three of the Big East Tournament games on Wednesday at MSG went under the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Thursday Big East battle between Marquette and Xavier should be a good one. 

Marquette won by two at Xavier and Xavier won by two at Marquette. These are two quality teams who should be highly motivated in this clash at Madison Square Garden.

Madison Square Garden is one of the best under venues in college basketball. The tough shooting backdrop has given teams fits for many years.

The two games in the regular season were 72-70 and 59-57. The average pace was 68 possessions in those games.

Both of these teams rank in the top 40 nationally in defensive efficiency. They are 69th and 115th in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Xavier's defense has improved drastically down the stretch. They have held four of their last five opponents to 68 points or fewer. 

Both of these teams have been good at defending without fouling. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Sacred Heart Pioneers and Merrimack Warriors face off in a big MAAC matchup at Boardwalk Hall on Wednesday night.

Merrimack was the betting favorite in this league (to win the conference tournament) according to most sportsbooks. The Warriors have a great matchup zone defense that can really mess up the opposing offense. Joe Gallo is a superb coach who gets the most out of his players.

Sacred Heart almost never gets to the line, and they don't foul very much on defense either.

The two regular season meetings between these two finished at 131 and 119 points total. This game means more being a win or go home.

Boardwalk Hall has been one of the best under venues in all of college basketball. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Madison Square Garden has consistently been one of the best under arenas in college basketball. It is a huge place with a difficult shooting backdrop. Big East unders are about 59% in the last 14 years at MSG.

Providence and Butler went way over the total last time they played, but both teams were on fire from 3 point range. Providence went a whopping 16/32 from 3 point range and still lost the game. Butler was 10/19 from 3 point range.

With MSG being tough for shooters, the fact that both of these teams rely heavily on 3 pointers is dangerous for them.

The defenses have been inconsistent, but Shot Quality ranks both in the top 15 in the country in shot selection allowed. Butler doesn't foul much at all. 

I think the pace here is below average and this is a high total for Madison Square Garden in a win or go home spot.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Sacred Heart Pioneers and Fairfield Stags meet at Boardwalk Hall on Tuesday night. 

These two teams met twice in the regular season and it was 148 points total and 145 points total. This is a win or go home game that should mean the tempo should slow down a bit and the referees are usually a little slower to call fouls.

These two offenses rank in the bottom 30 in the country in FTA/FGA so they will need to shoot the ball well to get over this total.

Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue. The under is 18-4 in the last 22 games at Boardwalk Hall when the total is set at 132.5 or higher. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The tempo should stay slow when these two teams meet in the MAAC Tournament on Tuesday night.

Rider is 326th in average possession length. Siena is 282nd in average possession length. In the one meeting they had in the regular season it finished 61-59 with a slow pace of just 62 possessions.

Siena relies on getting to the line a lot, but Rider is 36th in the nation in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. Siena has a bunch of shot blockers and they have improved quite a bit defensively.

Boardwalk Hall has been a tremendous under venue. The under is 18-4 in the last 22 games at Boardwalk Hall when the total is set at 132.5 or higher. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans meet the Arkansas State Red Wolves in the Sun Belt final. The winner of this one will be in the NCAA Tournament.

Arkansas State was first in the Sun Belt in offensive efficiency during conference play this year. Arkansas State was second in the league in tempo. They are 59th in the nation in tempo, so they definitely look to push the pace.

Troy is 240th in tempo, but both games between these two teams were relatively high in the regular season.

Both teams are excellent on the offensive glass. Neither of these teams can get defensive rebounds, so second chance points could really pile up in this contest.

These teams have a history of getting to the line a lot in games against each other.

Because there have been so many unders in conference tournaments this line has been bet down a long way, but I don't think it is justified here. 

The over is 31-25 in this arena. These two teams clearly have some offensive advantages in this matchup.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars slow the pace down the most of anyone in the Sun Belt. They are also first in the league in defensive efficiency. This is a semifinal game that means a ton to both teams and that should help the pace slow even more.

Arkansas State is relatively quick, but they are very good defensively too. The Red Wolves just played a fast paced Marshall team, but this game sets up very differently.

Both regular season meetings came in beneath this total. I thought this one was set quite a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This should be an all out battle in the finale of Arch Madness on Sunday. These are the two best teams in the MVC and they split the regular season series. Drake plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league. Bradley is a defensive minded team who relies on too many long range jumpers on offense. 

The under is 6-0 in the last two days in this tournament and over 61% to the under in the last 10 years.

I expect a very slow pace here. The two regular season games both stayed under this and now we are in a must win game at a big arena.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets go to Oklahoma City for a big game against the Thunder on Sunday. This is a very early start time in Oklahoma City. It gets underway at noon local time. This is also after clocks moved forward in the night so there was one less hour to sleep and the body clock could be off a bit here.

These early Western Conference unders have been excellent long term. 

Admittedly, this isn't a game I really wanted to bet the under with these two offenses being in top form of late, but the situation and the price makes me feel like there is value here.

Oklahoma is a top two or three defense in the league. Denver is a top ten defense in the league. A total set this high is quite extreme. 

Oklahoma City got up defensively for a showdown with Boston on a Sunday afternoon in January. That game finished 105-92.  I think the Thunder get fired up defensively here too. This game won't be as low scoring, but this total requires more than 60 points per quarter.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of the regular season meetings between these two teams stayed under this posted total. Now, they must go play in a win or go home game in the semifinals of Arch Madness.

All four games stayed under the total in this arena yesterday. The under is now north of 60% in the MVC Tournament in the last decade. 

Bradley has a defensive minded coach, and the Braves have slowed down the pace in both meetings between these two during the regular season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs are nothing like the team they were early this year. They are missing two of their key scorers, and with the shorthanded roster they have decided to play much slower on offense. Defensively, Fresno State has started playing a bunch of zone defense to slow the game down. 

Fresno State was routinely playing games around 80 possessions early in the season. Their last two games have been played to a pace of 60 and 59 possessions. 

I think it is hard for the oddsmakers to catch up to that drastic of a change.

San Jose State is 319th in average possession length, so they want to slow the game down. The Spartans are solid on offense, but they also do a good job of defending without fouling.

The first meeting between these two teams was 67-67 heading into overtime. That was before Fresno State slowed their tempo and started playing a zone defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies have the top defense in Conference USA. They are allowing just 0.942 points per possession in league play. New Mexico State is also dead last (10th) in Conference USA in effective field goal percentage offense. New Mexico plays at the 303rd ranked tempo in the country. They are very deliberate on the offensive end. 

Sam Houston State has slowed down their pace quite a bit in league play. They are 7th out of 10 in the league in average possession length. They rely on knocking down three point jumpers,  but New Mexico State is 4th in the nation in three point field goal percentage defense. 

Sam Houston has been inconsistent as far as the number of points scored in their games. New Mexico State has been very consistently having low scoring games. I like their chances of dictating this game.

New Mexico State has seen 8 straight games go under this total. They have also seen 11 of their last 13 games finish at 129 points or lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs are dead last in the nation in tempo. Drake often relies on getting to the free throw line a lot to score because their halfcourt offense isn't all that efficient. Belmont is first in the MVC in defending without fouling. 

Drake beat Belmont 65-46 earlier this year and controlled the tempo in a big way. Drake playing from ahead can really take the air out of the basketball.

All four games in the MVC Tournament went under on Friday and the under is above 60% in the last decade at this tournament.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Iowa Panthers are 288th in the country in tempo. They are the better team here, and they are the clear favorite to win. I think Northern Iowa can get a lead and slow the game down. 

Northern Iowa is 20th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. They are also second in the MVC at defending without fouling. 

Valparaiso is 11th in the league in effective field goal percentage. They are 309th in the nation in that statistic. Northern Iowa is tough to beat inside the arc, but Valpo is just a 31.4% shooting team from long range.

This hockey arena is known for unders in Arch Madness. In the last decade, the under sits at about 60% here.

I had this one several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Belmont Bruins and Illinois State RedBirds meet in Arch Madness on Friday afternoon. One of their meetings this year went over the total and the other stayed under this total. 

This arena and this tournament are very well noted for being great to under bettors. 

I realize this game has to have a high total because of the pace Belmont plays at and the efficiency of the Illinois State offense. Even with that being the case, I think this total is set too high given the venue and the situation.

This is a win or go home and the pace likely will slow down a bit as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Kentucky Norse have caught fire on the offensive end. After having only two games in their first 21 games where they averaged 1.10 points per possession or higher, Northern Kentucky has now scored 1.10 points per possession or more in 8 of their last 10 games! They have been above 1.16 points per possession in 7 of those 10 games. Northern Kentucky put up 85 points against Cleveland State in their most recent matchup.

One of the biggest changes for Northern Kentucky has been their lower turnover rate on offense. Trey Robinson has been on fire and leading the team in the last few weeks. 

Northern Kentucky's biggest weakness on defense is their inability to grab defensive rebounds. Cleveland State is elite at creating second chance opportunities. Cleveland State is first in the Horizon League in offensive efficiency. The Vikings scored 75 and 76 points in the two meetings with Northern Kentucky during the season.

The pace won't be very quick here, but I think the efficiencies will be high enough that this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies have been a tremendous under team in the last couple months. New Mexico State's offense which ranks 340th in effective field goal percentage offense holds them back badly. On the other side though, the Aggies are 21st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense.

New Mexico State has seen 11 of their last 13 games finish at 129 total points or fewer. 

Louisiana Tech is 319th nationally in pace of play. The Bulldogs have been good offensively against the weaker teams in the league, but Liberty and New Mexico State and Jacksonville State have held them down. 

Louisiana Tech's defense has been quite a bit better at home this year. Daniel Batcho is an elite shot blocker and he should bother New Mexico State here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UMKC Roos are the strange team in the Summit League that wants to slow the game down and win with defense. UMKC is last in the league in tempo. They are also first in the league in defensive efficiency. In a league where most teams are all offense, UMKC stands out as a unique team. 

UMKC lost 78-66 and 77-58 to Omaha in the regular season. Omaha won the league and is the better team, but UMKC was able to control the tempo in both games. The game that finished 78-66 had a bunch of points scored very late in that contest. 

Omaha ranks right in the middle in tempo. The Mavericks have tended to play to the pace of their opponent. They do rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency. 

This game is played at Sanford Sports Complex in South Dakota. This is a neutral court where the under is 51-40 in the last 91. It is clearly at least somewhat helpful to the under. It is a big arena and there won't be too many people here. The shooting backdrop has proved quite difficult for these mid major teams.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UT Martin Skyhawks are 214th in tempo in the country. UT Martin is 324th in effective field goal percentage on offense. UT Martin is also 316th in offensive turnover percentage. They are first in the Ohio Valley Conference in three pointers attempted. They are up against a Tennessee Tech team that is second in the OVC in 3 point field goal percentage allowed. They are 8th in the country in open 3 rate allowed. UT Martin hasn't shot it well from 3 against them in their regular season meetings.

Tennessee Tech is 280th in the country in offensive efficiency. They are first in the OVC in defending without fouling. The Golden Eagles are poor on the offensive glass, and they rarely get to the free throw line themselves on offense.

The two meetings between these two in the regular season both went to overtime. The first meeting was 70-70 before overtime. The second meeting was 62-62 before overtime and only finished 71-66 after overtime. 

Ford Center is a neutral venue where the under has done well. The average game in the last 27 games here has gone under the total by more than 5 points. Take the under here.

*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs have clearly changed the way they play in the last few weeks. In fact, Fresno State hasn't played a single game faster than a pace of 70 possessions in the last ten games. Their average pace for the year is 71.6 possessions,  but those lightning quick games with 80 plus possessions back in December mean absolutely nothing right now.

Fresno State is now without Jalen Weaver after he was suspended and then removed from the team. Weaver averaged 12.5 points per game and was a playmaker for the Bulldogs. Amar Augillard is the leading scorer for the year and he is out. Mykell Robinson is also not on the team anymore and he averaged more than 10 points per game. Weaver is the most recent guy removed and he is key.

Wyoming needed overtime to beat Fresno State in the first game between these two. That game was 134 total points before overtime. Wyoming is 352nd in the country in average possession length, so they are playing very slowly. The Cowboys are strong on the defensive glass, and Fresno should be getting just one shot pretty consistently.

Both teams are better on defense than offense. Fresno State is shorthanded and playing slower, and Wyoming is happy to slow the pace.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers are a solid offense now, and they are very weak on defense. Virginia takes a lot of three pointers, and they are 21st in the nation in three point field goal percentage. The Cavaliers have three regular guys who shoot 39.7% or higher from long range. Florida State ranks 258th in open three rate allowed. 

Florida State is first in the ACC in tempo. The Seminoles will do their best to push the pace of this contest. Florida State is 17th in shot selection allowed defensively in ACC play (out of 18 teams). The Seminoles have allowed 89, 96, and 100 points in their last three games. 

Virginia is 18th (last) in the ACC in shot selection allowed. They are 17th in defensive efficiency in the ACC. They are giving up 1.144 points per possession in conference play. Florida State has a big edge offensively near the hoop and on second chance opportunities with their offensive rebounding.

These are two poor defenses, and I don't think the line here reflects the current status of these defensive units.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Rockets aren't very good on offense. Houston is in 25th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last ten games. Houston has scored 105 points or fewer in 5 of their last 9 contests.

Oklahoma City has had some very high scoring games of late, but the Thunder are still first in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season overall. Houston is 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The first two times these teams met this year the totals were 220 and 214 points. This is a large adjustment and it is based on OKC's recent high scoring games. I think this is too large of an adjustment.

Justin Van Dyne is one of the refs in this one and in his career his games have gone under at a 55.5% clip.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes are one game back of the Quinnipiac Bobcats for first place in the MAAC. Marist will be plenty hyped up for this game with their chances of winning the regular season title still very real.

Marist is 27th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Marist is 13th in defensive rebounding nationally as well. Marist is also 360th out of 364 teams in the country in FTA/FGA, so they aren't getting to the free throw line much at all. Marist is 313th nationally in offensive efficiency overall.

St. Peter's is even worse offensively at 341st nationally. Their best offense is getting offensive rebounds and second chance points. Marist is excellent on the defensive glass though.

These two teams are 332nd in pace (Marist) and 347th in tempo (St. Peter's) and the tempo should be very slow here. The first game between these two was just 59 possessions and it finished 56-51. 

I see another low scoring game here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pepperdine Waves have had a bunch of very high scoring games of late. Pepperdine has allowed 90.4 points per game in their last five games. Pepperdine has sped up their tempo, and this Pepperdine team has loads of high scoring games on the road. They have been far more efficient on offense away from home.

Washington State beat Pepperdine 87-86 a couple weeks ago. The Cougars are 32nd in the nation in average possession length. Washington State is allowing 88.4 points per game in their last five games. Washington State is 12th in the nation in effective field goal percentage. They struggle with turnovers, but Pepperdine is one of the worst in the nation at forcing turnovers.

The pace here should be ultra quick. Their first meeting was 76 possessions. I think this one is 74 or 75 possessions again. The defenses have been much worse in recent weeks. This is the last game for both teams and it shouldn't mean much to either team. In the long run that usually means a lot of offense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee State Tigers have the fastest overall pace in the OVC. The Tigers lost 77-75 at Southern Indiana the first time around, but they were missing several key pieces in that game. Tennessee State has scored 80 points or more in 8 of their last 13 games. They excel at getting to the free throw line.

Southern Indiana is at the bottom of the OVC, and they run with Lindenwood and SIU Edwardsville in recent contests. Southern Indiana allows a ton of second chance points, which is a major problem against Tennessee State's front line. 

These teams like to get out in transition to begin with, and this is their final game of the regular season. These late season regular season games between teams at .500 or lower have been good to over bettors in the long run.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers are not even close to the same team that they were under Tony Bennett. The only similarity is that they play at a slow pace. Virginia used to be a great defensive team and an offense that struggled. Now, Virginia ranks second last in ACC play in defensive efficiency. The Cavaliers are giving up 1.144 points per possession in league play. On the other hand, Virginia is shooting the ball well. The Cavs have scored 73 points or more in six of their last eight games.

Clemson is second behind only Duke in ACC play in offensive efficiency. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 1.173 points per possession in league play. Clemson has scored 72 points or more in six straight games. The Tigers have four players averaging 10.9 points per game. Chase Hunter has turned into an elite scorer. 

I think this game is priced more like it was the Virginia team of old, but this Virginia defense is very weak.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors have been a really good under team the last few seasons. Merrimack is the top defense in the MAAC. The Warriors are allowing just 0.94 points per possession this season. Merrimack is 313th in offensive efficiency nationally. They are excellent on defense, but they struggle to get good looks on offense.

The Rider Broncs are 315th nationally in offensive efficiency. Rider is 362nd in the nation in shot selection according to Shot Quality. There are 364 teams in the country. 

Merrimack has had some extremely low scoring games on their home floor. They are last in the conference in offensive efficiency at home. They are also first in the conference in defensive efficiency at home.

Rider is 301st in tempo nationally. Merrimack is 319th nationally in tempo. This projects as a low scoring slow paced contest.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies have been a very consistent team in the last few weeks. New Mexico State is slowing the game down in a big way. New Mexico State ranks as the slowest paced team in Conference USA. They are 292nd in the country in overall tempo.

New Mexico State is 335th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Aggies struggle to get good looks. On the defensive end, New Mexico State is very solid. They are 24th in effective field goal percentage defense. They are first in Conference USA in defensive efficiency. They are 9th in offensive efficiency.

New Mexico State has seen 10 of their last 11 games finish with 129 points or fewer. 

MTSU is a little bit faster than average in tempo, but they have been slowed down by good defenses and teams who are very slow in tempo. That includes the first game against New Mexico State where there were just 64 possessions and 118 points. 

MTSU's defense has been hurt most by teams who shoot it well from long range, but New Mexico State isn't typically that type of team. They are outside the top 300 in 3 point FG percentage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames sit half a game behind the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in the Conference USA standings as the two fight for first place in the league. This is a really big game for both teams. The bigger the game the slower the tempo usually is, and we should expect to see a strong effort from the defenses.

Liberty has been really good on defense this year, but they have been next level good at home on defense. The Flames are holding opponents to 0.922 points per possession in league play at home. 

Jacksonville State is significantly less efficient on offense away from home. The Gamecocks are 330th in the country in average possession length. Jacksonville State is playing very slowly on a consistent basis.

Liberty is first in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. The Flames are also excellent on the defensive glass and defending without fouling.

Liberty has seen 5 of their last 6 games stay under this total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers are no longer the Virginia teams from the Tony Bennett days. Virginia still play slowly, but they are now good on offense and terrible defensively. 

Virginia is 17th out of 18 teams in the ACC in defensive efficiency in ACC play. Virginia has allowed at least 1.16 points per possession in six of their last eight games. On the other side, Virginia has more than 1 point per possession on offense in nine straight games. The Cavaliers have a whopping six of the nine games where they have put up 1.199 points per possession or higher. They aren't playing fast, but their games keep going over the total.

Wake Forest has trended down in a big way on defense of late as well. They have allowed 1.1018 points per possession or more in seven straight games. In six straight games, Wake Forest's offense has put up 1.04 points per possession or more. 

I'll fade the defenses here. The over is 10-0 in Virginia's last 10 games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers are excellent defensively, but their road games have been where the defense has excelled the most. Appalachian State has slowed the game down more on the road, and they are allowing just 0.952 points per possession in the conference.

Appalachian State has played 10 straight road games that have stayed under this total. In fact, five of their last seven games on the road have finished with 124 points or less. 

Georgia Southern has struggled defensively partially because of their inability to grab defensive boards. Appalachian State is last in the conference in offensive rebounding percentage. Georgia Southern relies heavily on 3 point shooting. Appalachian State is fifth in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. 

These teams played recently and it went over because of overtime. It was 136 points total in regulation. I think this one stays mid 130's or lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets have had the best defense in the NBA in the last ten games. The Nets also play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA. Brooklyn has seen 11 of their last 13 games stay under this total. 

The Washington Wizards are 24th in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the last 10 games. They are second to last in the last three games. 

The Nets are second to last in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last ten games. 

The last meeting between these two was 221 points, but Shot Quality's advanced data suggests the final total should have been 198 based on the quality of shots taken.

All three refs in these game have edged toward the under in their careers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* SE Missouri State has really come on throughout the season. This team is now first in the OVC in the standings. They are 1st in the conference in offensive efficiency. SE Missouri State has been torching the nets of late, especially on their home floor. SE Missouri State has scored at least 83 points in each of their last four games at home. 

Lindenwood is first in the OVC in average possession length, so they are playing very quick. The Lions are poor defensively, and they foul a lot. Lindenwood has played three of their last four games to a pace of 72 possessions or quicker. 

The first game between these two was played to 72 possessions and the teams shot the ball poorly and still got to 140 points. I think the pace will be quick here and it will get past the total this time.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers aren't even close to the same team they were the last few years under Coach Bennett. With Ron Sanchez running the show, Virginia is still a slow paced team, but they are far better on offense than defense. 

Virginia is 7th in the ACC in offensive efficiency. They were just 262nd in effective field goal percentage offense last year, but they are 93rd this season.

Virginia is 15th in the ACC in defensive efficiency. Their defense is now a clear weakness. 

North Carolina is first in the ACC in tempo. The Tar Heels defense has trended downward through the season. They have been giving up a lot of open looks, and they don't force many turnovers at all.

The over is 9-0 in Virginia's last 9 games. The over is 3-0 in UNC's last 3 games.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina A&T Aggies aren't even close to the same team they were earlier in the season. Landon Glasper was the best player on the team and a scorer and playmaker. He was suspended and then entered the transfer portal. Ryan Forrest was the leading scorer at 19 points per game and he was suspended as well.

North Carolina A&T has played five games since both of those key players have been out. The final totals have been: 129, 128, 119, 128, and 103 points. 

Stony Brook games have been pretty high scoring of late, but it has been because the opposition is scoring a lot. I'm not convinced North Carolina A&T can put up that big number. 

North Carolina A&T's defensive numbers have actually improved a lot in recent weeks. The team has slowed down their pace drastically as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville State Gamecocks are first in the Conference USA standings. Jacksonville State is the slowest paced team in the conference in terms of average possession length, so they are looking to slow things down. The Gamecocks are excellent both on the defensive glass and at defending without fouling. Those are two big keys when taking a lower under.

New Mexico State has had major problems scoring of late. The Aggies have scored 63 points or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. They scored only 59 at home against Jacksonville State in the first meeting between these teams. Peter Filipovity is questionable to play here and if he plays he will be less than 100%. He is one of their best players and he has had a severe illness where he has missed a lot of time and is out of shape now.

New Mexico State is 9th out of 10 teams in the conference in overall pace. New Mexico State is 10th in the conference in effective field goal percentage offense.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina A&T Aggies have played five games since they suspended their two star scorers Landon Glasper and Ryan Forrest. They haven't scored more than 63 points in a game during this five game span. That includes a 66-62 loss at Campbell a couple weeks ago.

NC A&T has understandably decided to slow the pace down a lot in their last few games. They are no longer getting out in transition and trying to score quickly. The Aggies defense has actually improved quite a bit without Glasper and Forrest, and they have been competitive overall.

Campbell is first in the CAA in defensive efficiency. The Fighting Camels have allowed 62 points or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games in regulation. 

I don't trust NC A&T to score much here. I also think the tempo projections across the board for this game are too fast. The last matchup was just 62 possessions and that was with some late fouling.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both USF and UTSA like to push the pace. They are 35th and 53rd in the country in average possession length. They aren't going to be shy about getting out in transition when matched up against each other.

USF is dead last in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage. UTSA is second to last in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage. USF commits the third most fouls in the AAC. UTSA has committed the most fouls of any team in the league. 

Primo Spears lives at the line and shoots 86.4% from the FT line for UTSA. UTSA is first in the nation in transition points off steals. 

USF gets into the paint a lot, and the UTSA defense lacks the shot blockers needed to slow them down.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Greensboro Spartans are last in the Southern Conference in tempo. UNC Greensboro is excellent at controlling the pace of the game. East Tennessee State is 282nd in the country in tempo, so they prefer a slow pace as well. The first meeting between these two was played to an extremely slow tempo of 56 possessions. The offenses were very efficient in that game, and it still finished at only 135 points.

These are two of the top three defenses in the Southern Conference. UNC Greensboro has held five of their last ten opponents to 57 points or fewer. East Tennessee State's defense has been much better at home, and they are looking for revenge from their loss in the first game.

Five straight meetings between these two teams have finished with 135 points or fewer. I like the slow pace to keep this one under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers aren't even close to the same team they were the last few years under Coach Bennett. With Ron Sanchez running the show, Virginia is still a slow paced team, but they are far better on offense than defense.

Virginia is 6th in offensive efficiency in the ACC. They are 14th in the ACC in defensive efficiency. Virginia ranks 17th in the ACC in shot selection allowed. 

Duke is an elite team all around. The Blue Devils are third in offensive efficiency nationally. They are fourth nationally in defensive efficiency. Duke has scored at least 78 points in 10 of their last 14 games. They have scored 83 points or more in 6 of their last 10 games. 

Virginia has put up 73 points or more in five straight games. I don't think the Cavs will score that many here, but I do think their one strength plays into the one relative weakness of the Duke defense. Duke has given up too many open looks from 3 overall. They are 325th in open 3 rate allowed. Virginia is shooting 37.7% from 3 point range on the season (27th nationally). 

Virginia is no longer a good defense. Duke should put up a big number here and Virginia should do enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays travel to Madison Square Garden to take on St. John's on Sunday afternoon. Creighton is coming off a loss at home to UConn. St. John's is coming off a loss at Villanova.

St. John's has a one game lead on Creighton in the Big East standings. This is a late season game that means a whole lot to both teams.

The first time these two teams met it was 57-56 Creighton at home. 

Creighton is first in the nation at defending without fouling. The Blue Jays are first in the Big East at defensive rebounding as well. St. John's is just 234th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. The Red Storm rely heavily on getting second chance points,  but those are often very tough to come by against Creighton.

St. John's is second in the nation in defensive efficiency. I have been extremely impressed by Pitino's team and their effort on the defensive end. 

Madison Square Garden is arguably the best under venue in college basketball. St. John's home games played here have gone 44-24 to the under (64.7%) in the last 68.

A lot to play for and two strong defenses at Madison Square Garden. I like it to stay low scoring.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Thomas Tommies are first in the Summit League in offensive efficiency. The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks are second in the Summit League in offensive efficiency. These are the top two offenses in a league where there are tons of great offenses and very few good defenses.

The first game between these two sailed past this posted total. I expect another high scoring game here.

Omaha has shown they can score on the road. They are averaging 86.0 points per game on the road in Summit League play. St. Thomas is averaging 86.2 points per game at home in league play.

Both teams are excellent from long range, and both of these defenses allow a bunch of open looks from three. These two teams both are excellent at the line as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* If I'm going to bet a high over, I want to have a team that is consistently involved in very high scoring games. Belmont is that team this year. Belmont has played in eight straight games that have finished with at least 155 points. The Bruins have seen 8 of their last 12 games finish over this high posted total.

Southern Illinois is poor at defending the 3 point line. Belmont is the type of team to make you pay for that weakness. On the other side, Belmont is the worst 2 point defense in the MVC. Southern Illinois gets into the paint a lot offensively.

The first game between these two teams was 90-86. This probably won't be quite that high, but I like it to get past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The NC A&T Aggies are nothing like they were earlier in the year. Landon Glasper was their superstar playmaker and Ryan Forrest averaged 19 points per game as well. Without those two, NC A&T has yet to score more than 63 points in a game. They have slowed down the games, and their defense has improved in recent games too.

Charleston just beat NC A&T 66-63 a couple games ago. There has been an adjustment to the totals for NC A&T, but it still isn't enough.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers look a lot different this year. They are still a very slow paced team, but they are no longer good at defense. They are 14th in defensive efficiency in the ACC. They are allowing 1.123 points per possession in league play. 

Virginia was outside the top 200 in effective field goal percentage offense last year, but they have jumped all the way into the top 100 this year. The Cavs are far worse on defense and far better on offense this season.

Virginia Tech is 15th in defensive efficiency in the ACC. The Hokies have no shot blockers, and they force very few turnovers. 

Virginia Tech offensively has been pretty solid. The Hokies average 1.10 points per possession on offense.

Virginia has played seven straight games over this number. Virginia Tech has played 12 straight games over this number.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts are much weaker on offense this year than they have been in recent seasons. Vermont is 331st nationally in offensive efficiency. The Catamounts are still very good defensively though. Vermont is good at defending ball screens, and Maine is reliant on setting a lot of those on offense. 

Maine was held to 49 points when these two met just two weeks ago. Vermont should give the Maine offense a lot of trouble again. Maine has shot 39.5% from 3 point range in the conference, but I expect that number to regress downward the rest of the way.

Maine played a lot of zone on Vermont in the first game, and Vermont was only able to score 55 points. Vermont lacks consistent outside shooting, and I like Maine's ability to slow them down again here.

The first game was played to an extremely slow 59 possessions. This should be around 60 possessions again. The defenses have the upper hand too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors unique zone press is very hard to prepare for, and I really like the job Joe Gallo does with this team. Merrimack is first in the MAAC in defensive efficiency. Merrimack has seen 10 of their last 11 games finish with 131 total points or fewer. 

Manhattan plays at an average tempo. The Jaspers have typically allowed the opponent to control the pace. Merrimack is 309th in overall tempo, and I think they can slow the pace down as they did in the first meeting between these tw teams.

Manhattan isn't a good defense, but they do a good job not fouling. The Jaspers have been taken advantage of by good offensive rebounding teams, but Merrimack is 357th in offensive rebounding. 

Merrimack is 305th in offensive efficiency in the country. The Warriors are prone to low scoring tight contests thanks to their strong defensive and poor offense.

The total has bumped upward some in the market, and I like it to stay under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames beat New Mexico State 68-60 in mid January. There was quite a bit of fouling late in that game to get it to the upper 120's. 

Liberty started the season not playing quite as well on the defensive end as they have in some past seasons, but the Flames have been great defensively of late. Liberty is 41st in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are first in Conference USA in defensive efficiency. 

New Mexico State is second in Conference UA in defensive efficiency. On the other hand, New Mexico State is tenth (last) in the conference in effective field goal percentage offense. They struggle to get open looks. Liberty is great on the defensive boards, and they don't foul very often.

Six of New Mexico State's last seven games have finished with 128 points or fewer. Liberty has seen three straight games stay under this posted total as well.

The pace should be slow here, and barring some really hot outside shooting, I like this one to be a low scoring battle.

Take the under.