*4 Star Play Under* The Providence haven't been very good on defense this year. Kim English has been known as a defensive-minded guy in the past. After last game, English was quoted as saying he is going to change up the practices and focus heavily on defense because he is unhappy with the defensive efforts out of his team.

New Hampshire is one of the weakest offenses in the country, so there is a real opportunity here for Providence to turn things around on defense. New Hampshire also plays very slowly and almost never gets to the free throw line. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia State Panthers made it a goal in the offseason to get better on the defensive end. The coaching staff no longer wanted to push the pace to the extreme and try to win those high scoring shootouts. Georgia State doesn't have many good shooters on this team either. Georgia State has only scored 49, 64, and 61 points in their first three games against Division I opponents. They are 260th in average possession length, so they are slowing the game down.

Arizona State has gotten better on defense the last few seasons, but their offense has tailed off a bit. Bobby Hurley's team is heading out to Hawaii right after this game to play on Thursday. They play in the Maui Invitational this season. 

Arizona State actually played pretty well defensively against Gonzaga for the majority of the game. Gonzaga's offense is a machine, and they only had 54 points with 10 minutes left in that game. 

Hurley's teams have trended toward the under in the large favorite role.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois State Redbirds have played three games, and all three of their opponents rank in the top 80 in the country in tempo. Illinois State prefers to play a slow halfcourt style of game, and they are finally up against an opponent who wants to play that same way.

Long Beach State is a bottom 75 tempo type of team. The 49ers severely lack in scoring firepower. They turn the ball over a bunch too. 

This total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns still have a strong defense, but the offense is really lacking. The passing game for Cleveland is often non existent in key moments. At times they can get the running game going, but I expect the Ravens to load up the box here and dare Cleveland to throw the ball.

Baltimore's offense is a very good one, but they are primarily good at running the ball. Cleveland is second in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. At home this year, Cleveland is allowing a league best 3.0 yards per carry.

The weather in Cleveland is a big factor here. Sunday's forecast calls for 23 mph sustained winds with gusts to 37 mph. That will make it very tough to throw the ball down the field. A more conservative game plan.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I view Maine as a very good under team with their style of play. Maine plays at a slow pace, and they are a tough defensive team. Maine had several good outside shooters last year, but they lost most of them to graduation.

Quinnipiac does play pretty fast, but they have slowed down a touch from last year, and they are good on defense as well.

These two played last year and it was 58-55. I don't think this one will be that low, but I like it to stay under this total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys do play fast, but they are far better on defense than offense. Corpus Christi is slowing down the pace a lot from a year ago. This total is too high unless they shoot lights out.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs defense has been elite this year. They are coming off their worst performance of the season at Hawaii. I expect a big bounce back from them here. San Diego State is allowing just 10.3 points per game at home this year. The Aztecs are 2nd in PPA/pass allowed and 10th in PPA/rush allowed this year.

San Diego State will be up against a backup quarterback for Boise State. The Broncos were held to 7 points by Fresno State at home in their last game. 

Boise State is 13th nationally in success rate allowed.

This is a huge game for both teams in the Mountain West Conference race. I expect both defenses to be ready to go. 

A rare poor weather day in San Diego is expected here. A 90% chance of rain is forecast here, and there is a flood watch for Saturday. There are winds of 12-18 mph expected too. This is a grass surface and it could be in rough shape.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves have typically been a very good defensive team. They were bad on defense last game and I expect them to come out much better on defense here. These are two teams who play around an average pace. Bradley graduated many of their top shooters from outside from last year. San Francisco lost its top couple guys too. Take the under.

*4 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina offense started the year horribly, but with Samari Collier this offense has taken off. Collier is a dual threat quarterback who is a very solid runner. The rushing explosiveness in the Chanticleers offense has really made a huge difference. Coastal Carolina has scored 45, 44, and 40 points in their last three games.

Now, Coastal Carolina goes up against one of the worst run defenses in the country. Georgia Southern is 135th out of 136 teams in YPC allowed. They are dead last at 136th in rushing explosiveness allowed. 

Georgia Southern plays at a quick pace. The Eagles are good at converting in the red zone, and they are 40th in rushing success rate and 30th in pass play success rate on offense. Coastal Carolina's defense has allowed 37, 27, and 27 points in their last three games. Coastal is 120th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

The season long numbers for Coastal's offense don't matter anymore, with Collier this is a good offense that is playing quickly.

Take the over. 

(This number has moved a bit during the week- I would still bet this for 4 stars as high as 60 and a 3 star rating above 60. Thank you) 

*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Maryland Greyhounds have played at a very slow pace this year. Loyola Maryland is likely to do their best to slow this game down to a halt. Stonehill is a below average paced team. Stonehill also played last night. This is a Stonehill team that has struggled badly to score the last few seasons, and they should do the same again this year.

This is a neutral court game which is helpful too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers defense has played pretty well with Coach Akey as the interim head coach. They held Washington State to 7 points and then held Sam Houston State to just 157 yards (Sam Houston scored 2 special teams TD's in that game). 

Oregon State's offense plays slowly, and they aren't explosive at all. Johnson doesn't throw the ball down the field. They are reliant on Hankerson hammering away to get 4 yards or so on the ground. 

Tulsa is very inefficient on offense. This team hasn't found a good quarterback all season, and they struggle badly in the red zone.

The long term weather forecast calls for rain and heavy winds here on Saturday. I would play the under without that weather, but it is a nice extra bonus.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles and Ball State Cardinals square off in a MAC battle on Saturday afternoon.

The weather in Muncie Indiana looks very windy for this game. The current blend of three forecasts calls for sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts to 33 mph during this game. That kind of wind can change a game in a big way.

Eastern Michigan's defense isn't good, but they have definitely improved in MAC play. Eastern Michigan has actually seen 5 of 6 MAC games stay below this posted total in regulation.

Ball State has one of the worst offenses in the nation.  Ball State is 133rd in offensive success rate. They are just 118th in explosiveness on offense too. Four of Ball State's five MAC games have finished at 42 combined points or lower.

Games with average winds of 10 mph or more at Ball State are 22-11 to the under in the last 33.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats are 135th out of 136 teams in the country in plays per minute. Northwestern is slowing the game down in a big way. They are 40th in rush rate, so the clock should be moving while they try to run the ball here. 

Michigan is 14th in YPC allowed and 14th in rushing explosiveness allowed. The Wolverines aren't likely to give up many big plays here. Northwestern is a miserable 129th in points per scoring opportunity on offense too, so when they get into scoring position they have struggled to cash in with touchdowns.

Michigan's offense has been inconsistent this year. Michigan will play slowly as well and they are pretty conservative with their play calling. Northwestern is 41st in points per scoring opportunity allowed. They are a solid red zone defense.

The winds here could play a role in Wrigley Field. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 27 mph are expected. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Coppin State Eagles are an extremely inefficient offense. They struggle badly with turnovers. Coppin State relies on getting to the line to score, and South Alabama has been one of the best teams in the country at defending without fouling. 

South Alabama's zone defense should really bother Coppin State. South Alabama forces teams to hit outside jumpers, and Coppin State has been terrible from 3 point range for the last few seasons. 

A slow pace and an early game at a neutral site too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mike Bibby is the new coach at Sacramento State, and he spent the offseason working hard to get his team in shape to push the pace and try to outrun the opposition. Sacramento State will show some full court pressure and I would expect UC Davis to be able to get in the bonus. UC Davis is aggressive each year, and they usually make a lot of trips to the line.

Sacramento State is giving up tons of open looks from long range so far this season. The Hornets are learning a new defense, and it should take some time for them to be good on that end of the floor.

I expect a quick pace.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks may have the worst offense in the country. They are at least bottom five. They reached 52 in overtime against GA Tech. They scored a ridiculously low 29 points against Georgia. They scored 50 against Nebraska by scoring 26 points in the last 11 minutes of the game.

Creighton is typically a below average tempo team. The Blue Jays are always great at defending without fouling too. They will be very good on offense, but they are down a tick from the last couple years with all the key losses. 

Creighton coasts to a large lead and slows the pace down.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Two teams who are both good at grabbing defensive rebounds, and they typically don't foul very much. That's crucial when looking at an under, especially in any kind of relatively competitive game.

Furman has slowed their pace down a lot the last couple games. It doesn't appear the Paladins want to run. They played much slower against their Division II opponent than they did a year ago. They slowed the game down against Troy too.

Northern Iowa isn't as slow as they were a few years ago, but they still move relatively slowly. They are better on defense than offense.

Northern Iowa has held CS Northridge and S Dakota State to 57 and 58 points. I think they can hold down Furman and slow the pace with the lead late here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers played the Jacksonville State Gamecocks early last year and Jacksonville State won 71-53. That game was played to a really slow pace of just 58 possessions. 

I think both teams prefer to play at a slow pace, and now they get the perfect opponent to play slowly against. 

Coastal Carolina has played two very fast paced teams in the first two games, and I think that has propped this total up a bit.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston has played two strong teams in Liberty and Florida Atlantic. Now, they take a big step down and play South Carolina State. 

Charleston was 50th in the nation in tempo last year, but they are just 241st this season. The Cougars have struggled on defense thus far, but they have played two excellent offenses. South Carolina State is a very weak offensive team. 

South Carolina State only scored 45 points on Louisville and just 62 points against a really bad North Carolina A&T team.

S Carolina State shoots the ball very poorly, and they turn it over a ton as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* UMass is a very quick paced team, but they are also much stronger on defense than on offense. I do expect a fast paced game, but UMass will usually shoot a poor percentage on the whole.

Le Moyne is a poor team in general, and they have tried to slow the game down this year because of their lack of offensive firepower. I think they'll struggle with the UMass pressure to where we will see a good amount of wasted possessions from Le Moyne.

This one is a few points too high given the two questionable offenses.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The South Dakota State Jackrabbits look nothing like they did in previous seasons. This team just doesn't have shooters around the outside that previous versions had. They have a new coach too, and he is having them slow down the pace. South Dakota State's games have been going far beneath the total. They only put up 68 points on Dakota State and then scored just 58 at Northern Iowa.

Oregon is a lockdown defensive team. They do push the pace some, but they are far better on defense than offense. 

Both of these teams turn the ball over too much and that should lead to quite a few empty possessions.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Neither of these teams are any good, and both of them want to play very slowly. 

Mercyhurst did pull an upset at Loyola Chicago in a game where they controlled the pace and slowed it way down. Mercyhurst is a bottom 10 tempo team nationally. 

Canisius is bottom 10 nationally in average possession length as well. The Golden Griffins do take a lot of 3 pointers so there is some variance.

Last year these two met and it was 62-52 in a slow paced game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Binghamton Bearcats aren't any good on offense. They scored 47 on Syracuse. They scored 59 at home against Niagara. They also only scored 66 against RIT College. I don't see them doing much at all on offense here. 

Georgetown is a defense first team under Ed Cooley. The Hoyas have gotten to the line a lot this year, but one strength of Binghamton last year and this year is they don't foul too much. Georgetown is likely to slow the pace down once they have a larger lead.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I like playing unders with Marty Simmons coached teams. He always keeps the team playing a very slow pace, and his teams have been woeful when it comes to offensive efficiency.

Notre Dame's primary focus in the offseason was improving the defense. Coach Shrewsbury said he fully expects a big improvement on defense this year. Their length should really bother Eastern Illinois here.

Notre Dame has tended to slow the pace down when they are winning by margin in the past.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles are a defense first team under Earl Grant. Boston College is good at defending without fouling, and they are good at getting defensive boards. The Eagles pace is 263rd in the country, and they will look to slow it down when they can this season.

Central Connecticut State showed they want to play slowly against Quinnipiac. The Bobcats are a run and gun type team, and C Connecticut really stalled out the pace in that game. They are now bottom 50 in the nation in tempo. They also lack top scoring options. They have been settling for contested jumpers.

Boston College played a game to 132 in regulation against fast paced FAU and then a 123 total against The Citadel. I think this total is a good amount too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Loyola Maryland played NJIT last year and won 68-50 on the road. That game was played to a very slow pace of just 64 possessions. These are two teams who want to slow the game down and play in the halfcourt almost exclusively.

NJIT has been a very poor shooting team in the last couple years. NJIT is trying to get the ball inside to their big men more this year, which should make the pace stay slow.

Loyola Maryland is a slow paced team that has been pretty good on the defensive glass.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers have been very good defensively through the first couple games this year. Pitt has given up 59 points and 60 points in those contests. Eastern Michigan grabbed 22 offensive rebounds against Georgia State, but I don't think they'll come even close to that here. Pitt has been a very good defensive rebounding team under Capel. 

Pitt has played drastically slower in their first couple games of the season. The Panthers rank in the bottom 25 in the nation in average possession length so far this year. 

Eastern Michigan's offense isn't likely to work here, and I expect Pitt to slow things down with the lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers host the LA Rams at Levi's Stadium. This stadium is known for being a grass field, and divisional games here have played strongly toward the under. In fact, the last seven times the Rams played at the 49ers and the total was higher than 44: the under is 6-1 with an average margin of more than a touchdown toward the under.

The Rams defense is top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Rams have been solid in all aspects of the game on the defensive side of the ball.

The 49ers have only played one game that went over this total all season long. They don't have the explosiveness on offense that they normally have when their wide receivers are healthy. They are more conservative in their play calling.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Dakota Jackrabbits have a new coach this year, and they have slowed their pace down drastically. South Dakota State had been in the top 100-150 range in average possession length in the last few years, but they are just 303rd in the country so far this year. South Dakota State only scored 68 points on Dakota State University in their last game. South Dakota State is still good at limiting the opposition to one shot, but they no longer have all kinds of outside shooters like they did in many years in the past. 

Northern Iowa is good on the defensive glass, and they don't put the opposition on the line very much. Northern Iowa isn't as slow as they once were, but they are still clearly a below average pace team.

I think this total is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes are well coached by John Dunne. Dunne is well known for his excellent defenses and slow style of play. 

Marist had a really good scorer last year in Josh Pascarelli, but he transferred to Colorado State in the offseason. There isn't anyone who appears to be a natural scorer on this Marist team, so I expect them to try hard to get into low scoring battles where they can win with their defense. They just held Xavier to a 66-62 game in their first game.

Dartmouth plays faster than they did in the past, but they are much better on defense than offense. Dartmouth has been top 20 in the nation in both defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling in both of the last two seasons.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams both prefer to play at a much slower pace than the national average. 

Florida is 89th in the nation in explosive play rate on offense. The Gators are 113th in passing play success rate. They rely more on running the ball. Kentucky is 31st in YPC allowed and 36th in rushing play success rate allowed. 

I've been very impressed by the Florida defense this year. The Gators are 25th in rushing play success rate allowed. They are 37th best at preventing explosive plays. Kentucky is just 126th in explosive play rate offensively. The Wildcats are very poor in the red zone offensively. 

Two teams who are better on defense than offense and both teams are playing slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams do both play fast, so I understand a high total, but I think this total is a few points too high.

Albany worked on getting better on defense in the offseason with their newcomers. The coaching staff said they have to up the level significantly on defense to take that next key step. Albany still plays a little faster than average, but they aren't at the extreme levels they were 2 and 3 years ago.

Frank Martin and UMass play very fast, but they are typically better on defense than offense. UMass is always going to work very hard and force a lot of turnovers. 

I expect a fast pace here, but the efficiency numbers don't suggest a total in the 160's.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Maine Black Bears were a really good 3 point shooting team last year, but they lost nearly all of their top outside shooters. Maine also took a big jump though because of their excellent defense. Maine's Coach Markwood thinks this team can be even deeper on defense thanks to their athleticism and length. 

Stony Brook lost their best scorer to the portal, and Stony Brook struggled badly on offensive against Farmingdale State scoring just 66 points in their season opener earlier this week.

I expect both of these teams to finish in the bottom 100 in tempo nationally. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers offense is terrible. Wisconsin is averaging 6.75 points per game in their last four games. Wisconsin is 133rd in the nation in tempo, so they are stalling in a big way. Wisconsin is 135th out of 136 teams in the country in explosive play rate on offense. They are also 134th in points per scoring opportunity, so they are awful at cashing in if they ever do get down deep into opponents territory.

Washington struggled offensively badly at Maryland and at Michigan. The Huskies offense hasn't looked the same on the road. Washington is 80th in tempo. The Wisconsin secondary has been poor, but the run defense is above average.

The Washington defense is 21st in explosiveness allowed. They are 35th in the nation in yards per carry allowed.

The weather here could be a factor. The forecast calls for some rain showers that could even turn to snow showers later in the game. The winds will be picking up later in the game. Sustained winds of 12 mph late in the game with gusts to 19 mph are expected.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Carolina Tar Heels defense has been amazing the last few weeks. They held Virginia to just 10 points in regulation. They held Cal to 291 yards of offense. They didn't allow a defensive touchdown against Syracuse last week. This unit has really put it together of late.

North Carolina has played very slow on offense. The Tar Heels are 121st in the nation in tempo. They played at an extremely slow pace last week with the lead. They are favored in this game as well. 

These two offenses are 125th and 112th in the nation (out of 136 teams) in yards per play on offense. They are 121st and 125th in the country in explosiveness on offense as well. 

Both of these teams have been dreadful at finishing drives. They are 127th and 119th in the country in points per scoring opportunity on offense. 

A slow pace and two offenses who struggle to hit big plays or cash in when in the red zone.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are a completely different offense with new quarterback Samari Collier leading the way. Collier is a really good runner who has made some good passes in the system as well. Coastal Carolina has scored 45 and 44 points in the last two games after struggling badly to score earlier this year. 

Georgia State plays quickly, but they are a really weak defense. They have allowed 41, 41, and 38 points in their last three games. I think they'll give up a lot again here.

Coastal Carolina's defense has allowed 27 points or more in three of their last four games. 

Both teams play at an above average pace.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons are consistently one of the bottom 10 or 15 teams in the country in terms of tempo. Air Force doesn't have the speed and athleticism to get in a transition battle, so they are going to always do their best to slow things down and win with ball control and win a low scoring contest.

Austin Peay was bottom 100 in the country in average possession length on offense last year too. This Austin Peay team doesn't have many consistent outside shooters. They are scrappy, but they should be happy to play a halfcourt type game and mix in some of their unique defensive looks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Tennessee is well known for its stout defense. The Volunteers should be excellent on defense again this year. The Volunteers have been top five in the nation in defensive efficiency in each of the last five seasons. They should be there once again.

Rick Barnes teams have played to the under at a 58% clip as a 13 point favorite or larger. Northern Kentucky is short on scoring threats, and I see them having real trouble with this Tennessee defense.

Northern Kentucky is able to mix in some zones and they are typically above average on that end of the floor.

Unders with large spreads have done well early in the season over the last decade. Two teams here who are both better on defense than offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Arkansas State is heavily reliant on the passing game, and Southern Miss is excellent in the secondary. Southern Miss is 19th in passing play success rate allowed. Southern Miss is 20th at PFF in coverage grade. Southern Miss is 42nd in passing explosiveness allowed. Southern Miss is 10th nationally in pass rush grade. Arkansas State is 119th in havoc allowed. The Red Wolves have a low early downs EPA on offense. I think Raynor and Arkansas State will be in a lot of bad spots on offense.

Arkansas State has improved a lot defensively of late. The Red Wolves have allowed 14, 24, and 10 points in their last three games. They gave up just 2.8 yards per play to Troy a week ago. Their run defense has improved drastically in the last three contests. 

Neither of these offenses have been very good at hitting big plays. Above a couple key numbers, I'll go to the under in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Murray State Racers have made it a top priority to get out and run this year. Murray State has a new coaching staff that wants to see a very high tempo. They will be aggressive getting to the basket and getting fouled.

Miss Valley State is among the worst teams in the land, and they just allowed 106 points to UAB. That game was played to a blistering pace of 85 possessions. They should shoot a little better here.

A track meet.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati defense is a top 20 defense nearly every year under Wes Miller. I think it will be very difficult for Georgia State to score in this one. Georgia State only put up 49 points against a weak Eastern Michigan defense in their first game of the season. 

Georgia State's coaching staff talked in depth in the offseason about their top goal being to be much better on the defensive end this year. The Panthers are a team that doesn't foul much.

Wes Miller's Cincinnati teams have been good under bets when they are double digit favorites. They are 30-22 to the under in the last 52 games in that spot.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans and Furman Paladins are both coached by guys who have typically liked to push the pace with their teams over the course of their career. Neither of these teams played all that fast last year, but both moved quickly and had high scoring games in the first game of the season. 

Troy gave up all kinds of second chance opportunities against Kent State. Troy is well known for their ability to create quick points off steals, and Furman lacks a great ball handler.

Furman has finished in the top 107 in the country in offensive efficiency every single year since 2018. The Paladins are accustomed to high scoring non-conference contests.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bucknell Bison lost their star Willamson, a 7 footer who left for Alabama in the offseason. Coach Griffin said in the offseason what he is most concerned about with this team is where they will find the scoring at. Griffin was quoted as saying he loves their defensive identity, but the team is a work in progress on the offensive end. Bucknell slowed the game down quite a bit last year.

Mount St. Mary's is a defensive minded team that typically struggles to get good shots. They only put up 54 points in game one against West Virginia. They also used 18 seconds of the shot clock on average.

Last year these two teams met and shot the ball well in their meeting with each other and it was still only 142 points before OT.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Andy Enfield's SMU team is committed to pushing the pace in a big way this year. SMU was absolutely flying pace wise in their season opening win over Tarleton State. SMU is 2nd fastest in the country in average possession length through one game. SMU averaged just 12.8 seconds per possession in game one. The Mustangs are also good on the offensive glass, and they get to the line a lot. Those are areas where Tex A&M Corpus Christi has struggled defensively in recent seasons.

Corpus Christi does like to use pressure and get out in transition off turnovers. SMU has been a little too turnover prone under Enfield. 

The pace should be high here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars slow the pace down and play strong defense. They mix in a zone defense pretty often, and they are good at controlling the tempo with that zone. They have length on the perimeter, and I think that makes it tough for Alcorn State to shoot over those long guards.

Alcorn State was in a game against Fla State in their first contest, and the Seminoles pushed the pace to the extreme. Now, they get a team who would prefer play a game to 63 or 64 possessions. Alcorn State shot the ball very well against Florida State, and I think that will regress toward the mean here too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats are always going to play very quickly under Tom Pecora. Quinnipiac got into an epic track meet with St. John's in game one. They lost 108-74. 

Central Connecticut has been an inconsistent tempo team under Sellers, but they got into a track meet with Quinnipiac last year. That game finished 84-80. 

The way the games have been called so far this year, I don't see any reason for the total to be this much lower than last year's final.

An up and down tempo with both teams scoring quite a few in transition.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Mavericks will be without Anthony Davis here. Dallas is already last in the NBA in points per game. They are also last in offensive efficiency. New Orleans is 4th from last in the NBA in offensive efficiency for the year, and they are 2nd worst in the last 5 games alone. Now, New Orleans will be without go to guy Zion Williamson in this one.

New Orleans plays at a slow pace and now both teams are without go to guys on offense. This total is awfully high given those situations.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Iowa is one of the biggest pace changers in the country going from Fran McCaffrey to Ben McCollum. Iowa won't necessarily finish at the very bottom of the country in tempo as Drake did the last two seasons, but they are going to go way slower than they have. 

Robert Morris is a team that lost so much of their scoring talent from a year ago. Toole is a good coach and I think he'll want to keep the game at a lower pace too. Robert Morris isn't going to have very good outside shooting or playmakers on offense this year.

This line is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* UNC Asheville has always been a team that wants to pick up full court on defense quite a bit and keep the pace of the game moving. They are far better overall on offense though, and I do think the UNC Asheville defense could be taken advantage of by the Wichita State guards here.

Wichita State wants to play fast with Paul Mills as their head coach. They are very good at getting to the line too, and UNC Asheville routinely can't grab defensive boards and they foul too much.

The first day of college hoops yesterday saw the over dominate with a lot of fouls being called. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Alcorn State Braves have a new coach and I do expect Jake Morton to have them playing faster than they did a year ago. They prioritized getting quickness in the portal and getting more scoring options.

Florida State's athleticism and height will be a very tough matchup for Alcorn State. The Seminoles lost a scrimmage 109-105 against Alabama a couple weeks ago. Luke Loucks is the new head coach at Florida State, and he has been vocal about how he wants the team running as much as possible. 

The first day of college hoops yesterday saw the over dominate with a lot of fouls being called. The scrimmage between Alabama and Fla State saw a total of 88 free throws, and I think there could be a lot here too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers have consistently slowed the tempo down under Coach Wayne Tinkle. Oregon State might play a little faster this year, but I do think they'll still be a below average paced team.

North Dakota State has ranked in the bottom 40 in average possession length (slow paced) in each of the last two seasons. The Bison lost their sharpshooters from a year ago, and they will look a whole lot different this season. They led the nation in 3 point shooting percentage last year, but Coach Richman said the team added more defensive help this year and this team is likely to struggle to score as efficiently. 

Neither of these teams are typically teams who foul a lot, and they are both good on the defensive glass.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Tarleton has much better talent now with Dior Johnson and Freddie Hicks. They should be much better offensively than they were a year ago. Tarleton is still going to be a mess on defense.

SMU will be pushing the pace as always under Any Enfield. SMU beat Tarleton 96-62 in a game played to 74 possessions starting last year. I see no reason why the total should be this much lower this time around.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats were 13th in the nation in tempo last year. Ohio loves to push the pace, and their defense has been below average in recent seasons. They are unlikely to be able to keep a good Arkansas State team from getting a lot of points in transition.

Arkansas State has a new head coach in Ryan Pannone and he was the offensive guy at Alabama under Nate Oats. Alabama was first in the nation in tempo last year. The Crimson Tide have built a reputation of pushing the pace to the extreme, and Pannone wants to establish the same thing here. They are looking for 5 out motion and uptempo offense at all times.

Ohio takes good care of the basketball and has multiple outside shooters. Both teams should put up quite a few points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The IU Indy Jaguars have a new coach who is all about pressing full court and pushing the pace. His team in Division II last year routinely scored 100 points or more. 

Ohio State put up 103 points in an exhibition win against Ohio and they had a high scoring scrimmage against Tennessee before that. The Buckeyes want to play faster this year, and they have the perfect opponent for that.

I think the Buckeyes put up a big number here, and IU Indy based on tempo alone should put up enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts have been the top offense in the NFL to this point in the season. Many people keep predicting this offense will slow down, but it hasn't happened. The offensive line is elite. The running game is excellent. Jones has been very good in the passing game too. The overall balance they have on offense along with the forward thinking play calling is tough to stop. The Colts are scoring 33.8 points per game so far this season. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers are averaging 25 points per game. The Steelers offense hasn't been the problem in their recent losses. Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack have been above average. While the Colts offense is elite, the defense has been mediocre. The secondary is especially beatable, and they are just 21st at PFF in coverage grade. 

The Steelers no longer have that top notch defense we remember them for in recent seasons. Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of the NFL in run defense and coverage grade at PFF. They are allowing 25 points per game. 

Three Steelers games have already reached 60 total points this year. The Colts have had five games with 52 points or more this season.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers are second in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I still believe this Packers defense is a very solid one. They have played a tough schedule of opposing offenses thus far. This is a step down for them. 

Carolina is bottom five in the NFL in total offense and nearly all the advanced metrics. The Panthers have a cluster injury issue on the offensive line too. Bryce Young will be back here, but he is less than 100% and playing behind a banged up offensive line. This is a dangerous spot for the Carolina offense. 

Carolina's defense has been top 12 in the NFL in the last three games. While I don't think their defense is good overall, they don't give up explosives nearly as much as the average team.

The wind in this game could change the game some too. Sustained winds will grow to 18 mph or so during the game with gusts hitting 30 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma defense is clearly good, but they aren't as good as they looked on paper. They hadn't faced a good offense so far this season, and Ole Miss rolled up 431 yards and 34 points on the Sooners. 

Tennessee plays at the second fastest pace of any team in the nation. The Volunteers are 12th in the nation in yards per play (Ole Miss is 25th), and I expect Tennessee to have success on offense here. Joey Aguilar has been great at home, and the Volunteers backfield is very good.

John Mateer has explosiveness in both the run and passing game, and the Vols defense has given up big plays all year. Oklahoma is 42nd quickest in the nation in tempo too, so there will be a lot of possessions in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers put up 33 points on Arkansas last week. Arkansas is a horrible defense, and even then Auburn only averaged 5.4 yards per play in that game. Arkansas turned the ball over 4 times and gave Auburn quite a few of those points. 

Auburn made a quarterback change to Ashton Daniels during the game last week. Daniels looked a bit better than Jackson Arnold in limited time, but I don't think he is going to fix this offense. Auburn is 116th in yards per pass attempt. They are 135th in sacks allowed per game. We don't know who the quarterback will be, but whoever it is will be playing behind a poor offensive line. 

Kentucky needs to run the football on offense to have much success. The Wildcats are 118th in passing play success rate on offense. They are 103rd overall in yards per play. Auburn is elite at stopping the run. They are 3rd nationally in YPC allowed. They are also third in rushing success rate allowed. They should stuff Kentucky on the ground.

These two teams are 99th and 119th in explosive play rate on offense. Neither offense is good in the red zone either.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have really impressed me on defense this year. Jake Dickert's team is playing really hard on that side of the ball. 

Wake Forest is first in the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed this year. The Demon Deacons are 11th in success rate allowed. They are 16th best in the nation in explosiveness allowed. 

Florida State is 33rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Seminoles are 30th in explosiveness allowed overall and 11th in rushing explosiveness allowed. 

Wake Forest is reliant on breaking big running plays, and the Seminoles appear set to slow that down. Wake Forest is just 123rd in the nation in offensive success rate.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs defense is dominant in every way. San Diego State is 4th in defensive success rate allowed. They haven't allowed a play of 50 yards or more all season (only 4 teams in the country can say this), and they are second best in the country in points per opportunity allowed. They don't give up big plays and are really tough in the red zone. They are fantastic against both the run and the pass. San Diego State has already held three teams to 0 points this season.

Wyoming's defense is top 5 in the country in points per opportunity allowed. Wyoming is also solid at not allowing explosive plays. The Cowboys are 18th nationally in explosiveness allowed. On offense, Wyoming is 108th in PPA/rush and 102nd in QBR. They are just 106th in explosiveness on offense.

San Diego State is bottom ten in the nation in tempo. The Aztecs are happy to run the football a bunch with a lead and keep the clock moving. That should be the case in the latter stages of this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos are a solid under team. They are a slow paced team that lacks explosivity on offense. They are 95th in the nation in tempo. They are 127th in explosiveness on offense. Western Michigan also has one of the best defenses in the MAC though. The Broncos are 15th nationally in yards per play allowed.

Central Michigan is one of the most run heavy teams in the country. They are 132nd out of 136 teams in the country in tempo. They are happy to shorten the game. 
These two teams are 104th and 92nd in the nation in points per scoring opportunity.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils will be without Sam Leavitt in this one. Leavitt is a really good QB and the drop off to backup Jeff Sims is a really big one. Jordyn Tyson is one of the best wide receivers in the country and he is considered doubtful for this game. Kyson Brown is out at RB as well. Center Ben Coleman will also miss this game.

Arizona State's game plan on offense should be far more conservative than it has been for the season overall. While others have taken advantage of the Iowa State injuries in the secondary, with Arizona State being so shorthanded I don't think they can do the same.

Arizona State's highest scoring game against an FBS opponent this year has been a total of 52 points. Their last two games have both been low scoring. 

Iowa State has been very poor in red zone offense. The Cyclones are just 78th nationally in explosiveness on offense too. Arizona State's defense is 14th in havoc rate so they should keep Becht a little unsure back in the pocket. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars are a slightly below average tempo team who has shown the willingness to drastically slow their pace when they are playing from a larger lead. 

West Virginia is a fast paced team that is wildly inefficient on offense. West Virginia is 112th in success rate on offense, and in recent weeks they have been even worse than that. The Mountaineers are run heavy because they are so banged up at quarterback, but Houston is a solid run stuffing team. Houston is 28th in the nation in YPC allowed. West Virginia is 125th in PPA/pass, and I don't think they'll be able to throw it here.

Houston's offense is run heavy, but they are just 122nd in the nation in rushing success rate. West Virginia isn't good against the pass, but the Mountaineers are 37th in rushing play success rate allowed. West Virginia's red zone defense has actually been very solid this season.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers have had some very high scoring games so far this year. I think at least some of that is based upon who they have played though. They have played to a 233 point total against these Celtics. They played much higher scoring games against the Hornets, Magic, and Wizards. All three of those teams are top 12 in the NBA in tempo. All three of those teams are also in the bottom ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

The Boston Celtics are the second slowest paced team in the NBA. Philadelphia is just 20th in the NBA in tempo. The first game between these two got to 233 points with a 72 point fourth quarter and 46 made free throws in the game. 

The Celtics are an above average defense. If the game is played at the normal pace of these two teams, it will take about 1.2 points per possession from both teams to get over this total. 

I'll side with the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes have an excellent defense. James Madison is 2nd nationally in defensive success rate allowed. They are 4th in YPC allowed. They are 4th nationally in explosiveness allowed too. James Madison is 4th in explosiveness allowed in the run game. 

James Madison is 123rd out of 136 teams in the country in pace of play. They are running the football quite a bit and using the clock. Texas State is 15th in pace of play, so we have a pace war here. 

Texas State is 15th in pass play success rate on offense. They are only 58th in rushing play success rate on offense. The Bobcats have relied on the pass and they lack explosivity in the run game.

The weather in San Marcos is a big factor here. The blend of 3 major forecasts calls for 20 mph sustained winds and gusts to 32 mph during this game. That really hurts Texas State's ability to throw the ball here. James Madison should run it a lot and slow the game down.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two of the top three offenses in baseball, and Dodger Stadium is a hitter friendly venue on the whole The shadows here will be talked about and it could be an issue for some of the game, but start times at Dodger Stadium near this time have actually trended toward the over.

Max Scherzer isn't even close to the pitcher he once was, and he has a weakness against left handed hitting now. The Dodgers have elite lefties who are going to make things tough on Scherzer in this contest.

Tyler Glasnow is a good starter, but he doesn't usually pitch as deep in the game as most starters. The Blue Jays should work the count and score some runs here. Both Guerrero Jr. and Springer have had a lot of success against Glasnow in their history. 

I don't trust either bullpen all that much, and I think we'll see plenty of both of them.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals arguably have the worst defense in the NFL. It is certainly one of the bottom three or four defenses in the NFL. The Bengals have allowed 27 points or more in six straight games. 

The Jets have looked poor on offense of late, but the Bengals are the perfect opponent for Justin Fields to have a bounce back game against. He should be able to do some work on the ground and hit some big gainers through the air in this one. 

Joe Flacco is a large upgrade from Jake Browning, and the Bengals definitely have excellent targets on the outside. Sauce Gardner will miss this game, and I think Chase and Higgins should have a big game here. 

The weather looks good for this one, and I believe this total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers have scored a grand total of zero points in their last two games. Billy Edwards Jr is still injured and the Badgers are rotating between Hunter Simmons and Danny O'Neil under center. Neither of them have had any kind of success leading the way at QB.

Oregon's defense is 7th in the country in explosiveness allowed. They are 1st in QBR allowed and 21st in YPC allowed.

Wisconsin's defense has struggled against the pass, but they are still good against the run. The Badgers are 32nd nationally in PPA/rush allowed. They are 4th nationally in rushing explosiveness allowed.

The weather here should be a major factor. The forecast calls for steady rain and sustained winds of 19 mph with gusts to 34 mph during the game. That will make both teams more conservative with the play calling. A lot of moving clock in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Stanford was only able to put up 3 points against BYU and 10 points against SMU. Those defenses aren't better than the Miami defense. Miami is 15th in success rate allowed on defense. They are 6th in the nation in defensive line yards. They are 13th nationally in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed. 

Stanford's quarterback Ben Gulbranson is hobbled now, but is trying to play through the injury. I think this will be a tough game for him. 

Offensively, Miami is just 117th in offensive explosiveness. Stanford is 36th in PPA/rush allowed. the Cardinal have been very solid against the run in recent weeks.

The weather here should matter. A sustained wind of 23 mph and gusts to 30 mph here. This stadium is partially covered by a canopy for the seats, but the playing surface isn't covered. The wind will matter some. There are rain showers expected at times on Saturday evening too. This playing field is grass where the rain would matter more.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns offense is just not working. They managed just 3.3 yards per play against Kentucky last week. Texas is 107th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Longhorns are just 66th in offensive explosiveness as well.

Mississippi State is 22nd in opponent QBR allowed. The secondary has been excellent. The Bulldogs are 90th nationally in YPC allowed, but they are 13th in rush explosiveness allowed.

Texas has had five games that stayed below this posted total. The Longhorns defense is top notch. They are 20th in PPA/pass allowed and 9th in PPA/rush allowed. They are 5th in the nation in explosiveness allowed.

Miss State is a fast paced team, but their offense has struggled against the better defenses they have faced. Texas will be the best defense they have played thus far. Miss State has played 3 of their 6 FBS opponents to a final score of 44 total points or lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington State Cougars have drastically slowed their pace down. They rank as the second slowest paced team in the country in their last three games.

Toledo is very solid all around on defense, but the Rockets offense is very inconsistent. I've been super impressed by the Washington State defense and how they held down both Ole Miss and Virginia.

The weather in Pullman looks very poor for this game. A steady rainfall through the game and winds of 14 mph with gusts to 24 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Vanderbilt is easily first in the nation in points per opportunity- this team is cashing in bigtime on their scoring chances. Vandy 7th in rush success rate. Missouri 30th in rush success rate allowed. Vandy 7th in explosiveness in run game- Missouri 51st in rushing explosives allowed.

Missouri wants to run the football! Auburn made that very hard on them last week. Vandy is 26th in the nation in PPA/rush allowed. They are only 12th in the SEC in tackling grade at PFF though, and that concerns me some for the Vanderbilt defense with Ahmad Hardy coming at them early and often here. He’s first in the nation in yards after contact.

The two defenses are 74th and 70th in points per opportunity allowed. Vandy 1st on offense and Missouri 10th. Pace of the game will be slow, but I do think they can have success on offense in this game.

We're below a key number here, and I think Vanderbilt will push the scoring here and Missouri will do enough to get this one over the total.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas Jayhawks offense has been very good this year, and it has been excellent at home. Kansas put up more than 10 yards per play at home against Cincinnati. 

Kansas State is thought of as a defensive team, but this team isn't what they once were. The Wildcats are 66th nationally in yards per play allowed. They are also 92nd in explosiveness allowed. 

On the other side, Kansas has a very weak defense. The Jayhawks are 123rd in the nation in YPC allowed. They are 103rd in explosiveness allowed. 

Last year, these two teams put up 6.7 yards per play and 6.2 yards per play and got to 56 points. I think the defenses are worse this season.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Cleveland looks rough for this game. Sustained winds in the 20 mph area with gusts of 37 mph are possible during this game. We've seen how much the weather can change Cleveland Browns home games in the past, and this is another game where the weather could play a large factor.

Miami's offense isn't what it once was. The Dolphins certainly miss Tyreek Hill quite badly. The Dolphins running game has slipped in the last few games. 

Cleveland's offense is second to last in the NFL in yards per play. They are averaging just 4.1 yards per play. Now, they have to deal with the elements as well.

Dillon Gabriel isn't going to be asked to do very much in a spot like this. 

Both teams are likely to be very conservative with the play calling. I think the clock will keep running a lot here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears are middle of the pack in yards per play this year. The New Orleans Saints are 27th in the NFL in yards per play. Chicago is at the bottom of the NFL in yards per play allowed, while the Saints are up at 14th best. 

The weather here should play a large role in this game. The blend of 3 major forecasts calls for 21 mph sustained winds with a 40% chance of showers during this game. The wind gusts during this game are expected to be in the 35-40 mph range. 

Those are intense winds and we know the Chicago games have been hit hard by winds off the lake in the past. 

I don't think either ground game is good enough to move it up and down the field consistently in these conditions. They are 20th and 24th in the NFL in yards per carry. 

These conditions make explosive plays far less likely. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers are third in the nation in pace of play. Heupel's team is pushing the pace to the extreme as they always do. Tennessee is much worse defensively this year than they have been the last couple seasons, but they have a better and more balanced offense. The Tennessee ground game should find success here. Alabama is 104th in the nation in YPC allowed, and they are 125th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

Ty Simpson has been amazing the last few games for the Alabama offense. Tennessee is one of the worst secondaries in the SEC. They are 81st nationally in PPA/pass. I think the Crimson Tide have a big game through the air in this one. 

These two teams have both been tremendous in the red zone at converting those trips into touchdowns. Look for them to finish the drives in this game too.

This total has come down, and I disagree with the line move.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are 126th and 132nd in yards per play offensively. Akron had one good offensive game against Central Michigan, but in general they have been terrible. The Zips are 133rd in rushing explosiveness and 125th in yards per passing attempt. 

Ball State averaged 1.8 yards per play on offense last game against Western Michigan. They'll be better than that here against Akron, but the Cardinals have major offensive issues too. They are 131st in success rate on offense.

Neither of these defenses are very good overall, but they have both been pretty good in the red zone. The two offenses are terrible in the red zone as well.

As a potential bonus the long range weather calls for winds in the 20 mph range with a chance for a shower here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies are a solid under team. Northern Illinois is bottom 30 in plays per game. They definitely move at a slow pace. Northern Illinois is also 135th nationally in yards per play out of 136 teams. They are averaging an ugly 4.21 yards per play. Thomas Hammock's group is pretty good defensively though. They are 44th in PPA/pass allowed and 53rd in PPA/rush allowed. 

Ohio is a below average tempo team as well. The Bobcats are top ten nationally in rushing explosiveness thanks largely to Parker Navarro. Northern Illinois though is 34th nationally in rushing explosiveness allowed. Ohio is an above average MAC defense and that should be enough to stop Northern Illinois here.

These two teams are both top 16 in the nation in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd offense has been better than expected this year. Marshall's Carlos Del-Rio Wilson has 11 TD's and zero interceptions on the year. Marshall has scored 38 points or more in four straight games.

Texas State is 33rd in the nation in tempo. The Bobcats just allowed a very mediocre backup quarterback in Tucker Kilcrease from Troy to throw for 419 yards and 5 touchdowns. Texas State is 122nd in the nation in explosiveness allowed. Combine that with the fact that they are one of the worst red zone defenses in the country and you get a really poor defense that gives up a load of points. 

Texas State offensively is 32nd in yards per attempt on offense, and Marshall is 118th in yards per passing attempt allowed. The Bobcats offensive line has been good, and the Thundering Herd have relied on havoc to even slow down opposing offenses.

Two teams who are both in the bottom 15 in the country in explosiveness allowed. Three straight games of Marshall have gone to at least 70 total points.

Three of Texas State's games have finished with 79 points or more. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have a star quarterback in Czarka. He runs the triple option offense extremely well, and he is a much better passer than they have had in recent seasons. Air Force put up 603 yards of total offense against UNLV last week. Air Force is first in the nation in points per scoring opportunity. They are converting red zone trips into touchdowns. 

Defensively, Air Force is a complete mess. They have allowed a whopping 11 plays of 50 yards or more, and no one in the country is giving up more explosive plays. The Falcons just don't have enough speed on defense. Wyoming just had their best offensive showing last week against San Jose State, and this defense is even worse.

Wyoming is 100th in defensive line yards and 106th in yards per carry. Air Force will run all over Wyoming.

Air Force games have continually gone over the total, and most haven't even been close. I'll go to the high side again here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Northwestern hosts Purdue in their temporary football stadium right on Lake Michigan here. The weather plays a large role here with this right on the lake. A chance of scattered rain showers and winds of about 12-15 mph are expected here. That should be enough to make a difference at this venue.

Northwestern plays at an extremely slow pace. The Wildcats scored 42 points on both Western Illinois and ULM, two teams who were extremely overmatched in the trenches. Northwestern has struggled badly to score on most teams they have played this year.

Purdue has been improving, and they should have won at Minnesota last week. The Boilermakers defense held up well in that game against Minnesota. Purdue isn't a big play offense either.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls have one of the best defenses in the MAC. UMass has the worst offense in the country. UMass is 136th in yards per play and 130th in explosiveness on offense. They only scored 6 points and put up 3.3 yards per play on a terrible Kent State defense last week. 

UMass isn't good defensively, but they are much better on defense than offense. They are actually 14th best in the country in explosiveness allowed. They'll give up points, but it should at least take some time. Kent State only had 5.3 yards per play on them- it was turnovers and short fields that led to the points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma Sooners offense isn't the same with John Mateer at less than 100%. Now, they'll look better than they did last week because they don't have to face the Texas defense. Still, South Carolina is an above average defense.

Oklahoma is far less explosive with Mateer banged up. The Sooners were out of sorts last weekend. South Carolina's offense is a complete mess. The Gamecocks are 132nd in the nation in yards per carry. The offensive line is a glaring weakness, and this Oklahoma defensive front might be the best in the nation.

Sellers is a really good QB, but he is going to be in all kinds of bad spots in this game. Oklahoma is 1st in defensive success rate allowed against the run. They are first against the pass as well. The Sooners are second in the nation in havoc. They are second in points per opportunity allowed also. South Carolina has been awful in the red zone. The Gamecocks are 130th in points per scoring opportunity.

Defensively, both of these teams are in the top 11 in red zone TD percentage allowed.

South Carolina hasn't had a game finish higher than 49 points all year. They have had three games finish at 38 points or less. Oklahoma's highest scoring game this year was 45 points. The Sooners have had four games finish at 41 points or fewer. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays had one of the top two or three offenses in baseball this season. Toronto has a bunch of power in the lineup, and they woke up in a big way on Wednesday. George Springer had an excellent season starting things out right for the Jays at the top of the order. He had 3 hits on Wednesday. Vlad Guerrero Jr. went 4 for 4 with a walk on Wednesday. 

Seattle's lineup is better than average, and they have a lot of home run power also. Max Scherzer starts in this one, and Scherzer has allowed at least 4 runs in five of his last six starts. Scherzer hasn't thrown since September 24th, so he is way off his normal schedule. Scherzer was once a dominant starter, but at 41 years old he is far from what he was 5 years ago. 

Luis Castillo has pitched well in recent outings, but he faced a lot of weak lineups during those starts. This is a stacked Toronto lineup.

Hudson is the home plate umpire and he is a hitter friendly umpire. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The LA Rams defense is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Baltimore's offense looked terrible with Cooper Rush under center last week. It is such a drop off from Jackson, and the offense has to look completely different without a running quarterback as a major threat.

The Baltimore defense has played poorly this year, but I think they'll show some pride after being embarrassed a week ago.

The weather should play a major role in this one. The weather forecast calls for steady rain from the NorEaster on Sunday afternoon. The wind should be the biggest factor though. Sustained winds of about 18 mph with gusts as high as 37 mph are in the forecast here. That kind of weather makes the play calling far more conservative and it helps the under a great deal.

Take the under here. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* My numbers support a larger play on the under in this one. LSU has played four games against FBS schools and none of those games have topped 43 points (that one was Ole Miss). Recent South Carolina games have been higher scoring than they should have been due to fluke defensive/special teams plays to score or have consistently short fields.

LSU hasn't scored more than 23 points in a game against an FBS opponent all season long. The Tigers offense just hasn't been any good. The defense is leading the way with their excellent pass rush.

Sellers is a star for the Gamecocks, but the offensive line in front of him is a mess. The LSU pass rush is the strength of the team. There should be a bunch of big negative plays for South Carolina and they'll be behind the sticks a lot.

Take the under. Top Rated play. 

*4 Star Play Over* This USC offense is extremely tough to slow down. They have two weeks to get ready for this game. The Michigan pass defense is only mediocre. They rank 45th in QBR allowed so far this year. USC should be able to hit explosives and finish in the red zone here. The Trojans have the balance that allows them to finish drives at a very high rate. 

The USC defense is talented, but they are still really inconsistent. I've overall liked what I've seen from Underwood. I think they have success here against a USC secondary that is an ugly 102nd in QBR allowed this year. Michigan State was able to move the ball quite a bit against USC, and I think the Wolverines can here too.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Michigan Broncos have played two MAC games. The score against Toledo was 14-13. The score against UMass was 21-3. I think Western Michigan based on their style of play and improved defense will have a lot of low scoring games in the MAC this year. Western Michigan is 57th in YPC allowed and they are 11th in PPA/Pass so far this season.

Ball State is coming off a shocking win over Ohio. The Cardinals are playing at a very slow pace on offense. The Cardinals did a good job slowing down the Bobcats offense last week, and they have made some improvements on defense.

Not very many possessions in this one- take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons best offensive player is Demond Claiborne. He's banged up and is likely to play but at less than 100 percent here. If he is banged up it really hurts this teams explosiveness. Ashford is probable to play here too but has been banged up quite a bit this year.

Oregon State has been unable to run the football on anyone this year. They are 128th in YPC and 133rd in rushing explosiveness. The Wake Forest defense is 5th in the nation in yards per attempt allowed in the passing game. Wake Forest is also 10th in stuff rate defensively. Wake Forest has been sneaky good on defense.

Oregon State's defense has played much better at home than on the road. They have a very good home field advantage. Oregon State is much better against the run than the pass.

I like that this could be a more conservative game with the better run defenses. The weather here calls for rain showers and winds of about 8 mph with gusts to 15 mph. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons have played four games against FBS competition this year. The combined total scores in those games have been: 79 points, 86 points, 79 points, and 65 points. 

Air Force is dead last by a mile in yards per play allowed this season at 7.71 yards per play allowed. The Falcons allowed 44 points against a Hawaii team that has badly struggled to find a rhythm on offense the rest of the season. 

Air Force is wasting some very good output on offense from quarterback Liam Szarka. They have been explosive in both the passing and running game. UNLV has been very weak against the run, and I think Air Force will hit them with a lot of big gainers on the ground here. UNLV is allowing 5.15 yards per carry on the season.

The Air Force defense is 136th out of 136 teams in the country in explosiveness allowed, and UNLV has big play potential with Thomas on the ground and Colandrea and company through the air. 

UNLV's defense has shown the ability to give up a lot. They allowed 38 points to Miami (OH) and 31 points against FCS Idaho State.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Penn State is coming off an absolutely stunning outright loss at UCLA. No one saw that one coming. Now, the Nittany Lions come into this one on a two game losing streak.

How will Penn State respond? I expect to see the defense look a whole lot better this week. Northwestern is terrible offensively. The Wildcats have looked good against an FCS foe and a far overmatched Sun Belt opponent, but against the bigger teams they have played Northwestern has done nothing on offense. The Wildcats are also bottom ten in the country in tempo.

Northwestern is a feisty defense, and the Penn State offense isn't explosive at all right now. Penn State is 122nd in the nation in offensive explosiveness. The Nittany Lions are 91st in the nation in PPA/pass. Drew Allar has played very poorly all season long.

The under is 27-15 in James Franklin's 42 games at Penn State as a home favorite. The under is 20-8 as a home favorite of 10.5 points or more.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Mark Wegner has consistently had one of the lowest strikeout/walk ratios in all of baseball. He is one of the most hitter friendly umpires you'll ever find. He is behind home plate for this key game between the Phillies and Dodgers.

Cristopher Sanchez is an excellent starter, but the Dodgers offense has heated up nicely of late. Tyler Glasnow has excellent stuff, but I don't think he goes more than five innings or so in this spot, and that means a lot of the Dodgers bullpen which has been weak all season long.

Dodger Stadium ranked as the fourth most hitter friendly park in baseball this year. The ball carries well here during the daytime and this is a 3:08 local time contest. 

These are two really good offenses with a low total and two worn out bullpens. A really big bonus of an over umpire too.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Liberty Flames have disappointed all year, especially on the offensive end. Ethan Vasko will probably be back here, but he hasn't played well. Liberty is up against a UTEP defense that is 24th in havoc created. Liberty is 105th in pass blocking grade. UTEP should get in the backfield quite a bit here.

UTEP is 134th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Miners have gone between Nelson and Locklear, but both have been bad at QB. 

The weather here calls for sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 27 mph. That should make the game more conservative and it is overall very helpful for an under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Jesus Luzardo has shown the ability to get rattled and completely lose command. The Dodgers lineup is arguably the best lineup in baseball, and they are finally like it here lately. They have consistently put up really good offensive numbers in the last 6-8 games. Betts has woken up and that makes it a lot tougher for the opposing starter. 

The Philadelphia Phillies averaged 5.30 runs per game at home this year. This is a hitter friendly park, especially with the weather we see here today. A warm temperature in the mid 70's in October and a slight wind blowing out at about 7 mph here.

Blake Snell is a strong starter,  but the Dodgers bullpen is still a big weakness. The Phillies bullpen has been shaky of late too.

Adrian Johnson is behind home plate, and he is a very hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts are first in the NFL in yards per play. I don't think that will change after they face a weak Las Vegas defense this weekend. The Raiders are 23rd in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed. The Raiders are also below average in yards per play allowed at 21st in the NFL.

The Las Vegas offense has been inconsistent this year, but in the dome on the fast track I like their chances of moving the ball well here. Jeanty got going last week, and that should help the offense a lot. Indianapolis is just 20th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Colts are allowing 4.5 yards per carry on the season.

Early season games in a dome have trended strongly toward the over in the last ten years in the NFL.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles have been fortunate to win all 4 of their games. The Eagles are 30th in the NFL in yards per play at 4.2 yards per play. Philadelphia has been a mess on offense, and now they are going up against a top five defense in the NFL. The Broncos should be able to generate pressure and create some negative plays. The Eagles have had less big plays this year, and the offensive line is banged up right now.

The Denver offense looking good against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals doesn't change my opinion of them. Denver isn't bad offensively, but against the top defenses in the NFL I think Nix will often struggle. The Eagles defense is still a top six or eight unit in the NFL. 

This line has moved up enough here that I'm comfortable going to the low side. The Eagles are second slowest in the NFL in tempo. I think the defenses have the edge here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have struggled badly on offense this year. They only scored 19 on a bad Oklahoma State defense. They only put up 14 and 4.6 yards per play against a Tulane defense that is only ok. Tulsa only scored 14 points and had 4.9 yards per play against a lowly New Mexico State defense.

Tulsa is better at running the football than throwing the football, but the strength of the Memphis defense is stuffing the run. Baylor Hayes has struggled badly throwing the ball when blitzed, and Memphis brings a bunch of blitzes. 

The Memphis offense is bottom 30 in the country in tempo. They are also top 20 in the country in rush rate, so they like to run the football. Tulsa is 30th in explosiveness allowed. This isn't a great Tulsa defense, but they are much improved from a year ago.

Tulsa is 128th in stuff rate allowed when running this year, and Memphis is 11th in stuff rate on defense. The Golden Hurricane should play from behind the sticks here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Heavy winds in Lincoln should change this game. The average of three forecasts here calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts to 28 mph during this game. 

Michigan State's front seven is pretty strong. Nebraska is a pass heavy team that really struggles running the ball. If it is this windy here in this game, I think it slows the Nebraska offense quite a bit. Nebraska is 133rd in rushing explosiveness. 

Michigan State is 128th in stuff rate allowed on offense. The Spartans offensive line has struggled all season. They are just 93rd in rushing explosiveness too.

Teams who are lacking explosives with very slow pace (126th and 77th tempo wise) with this kind of wind. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Last year's meeting between these two teams saw major fireworks as the teams went back and forth, and I think this will be another high scoring contest.

Vanderbilt just won 55-35 against Utah State. They beat Georgia State 70-21. Diego Pavia and this offense are humming along amazingly. They are first nationally in PPA/Pass attempt. The Alabama defense is just 63rd in PPA/Pass attempt allowed. Vandy is 1st in pass downs PPA and Alabama is 98th in passing downs PPA allowed.

Alabama's Ty Simpson is starting to look really comfortable at quarterback. He has some great skill position talent around him too. The Vanderbilt defense struggled against Utah State and they really have yet to be tested by a good offense. They'll be tested here in a big way.

Take the over.