*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Asheville Bulldogs ranked 350th out of 353 teams in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense last year. Their interior defense was as bad as anyone in the country. UNC Asheville pushes the pace and tries to get steals and transition baskets, but their opposition gets a ton of easy looks in the paint and a lot of trips to the free throw line. 

UNC Wilmington is picking up their pace a lot under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. He worked under Kevin Keatts and Keatts' system is a very fast paced one where the team tries to attack the rim and get to the basket a lot.

There shouldn't be anyone looking to slow the pace down in this game. This total is set a few points lower than it should have been considering the tempo here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights rank first in the nation in pace of play. They are using only 19 seconds between plays on average. The USF Bulls rank 30th and they are only using 23.32 seconds between plays in conference action. This game should have a bunch of plays in it. That's always a good start for a high over.

UCF is first in the nation with 71 plays of 20 yards or more. The Knights have only played eight games, so they are really putting up the big gainers at a very high rate. USF is giving up 6.17 yards per play in AAC action so far. UCF should put up a very big number here. It would be surprise if they don't at least get into the upper 40's. 

USF has had two weeks to get ready for this game, and there are two great offensive minds on this staff in Jeff Scott and Charlie Weis Jr. The UCF defense has been a big weakness this year, and I do think USF will get their yards and scoring opportunities here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns are much better defensively this season. Texas ranks 21st in the nation in yards per play allowed. The defensive coaching staff is much better this year, and they have done a good job being aggressive on this side of the football. 

Iowa State has the best run defense in the Big 12. They should be able to make Texas one dimensional on offense. Iowa State already has 22 sacks this year, and the Texas offensive line is a weakness.

Iowa State is playing at an extremely slow pace to have a game totaled this high. The game could certainly get to the total if there are a bunch of big plays or turnovers for scores, but in a normal game state I don't see this one getting this high.

The last 5 meetings between these two have finished at this many combined points: 24, 33, 24, 34, and 44 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Loyola Marymount Lions have a new coach this year. Mike Dunlap is gone and so is his very slow paced style. Stan Johnson was an assistant at Marquette, where they played a very fast paced style year after year. Johnson has already said they are committed to speeding things up this season.

The Southern Utah Thunderbirds went out and got some junior college guys who can shoot from long range in the offseason. Todd Simon's team should be much better on offense than they were a year ago. Simon also said in the offseason that they'll play faster. Simon said "I think we'll play faster- we've always been up-tempo, but we'll kick it up a notch this year." 

The oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough based on the two teams both picking up the pace here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Luke Yaklich is an amazing defensive mind. He made the Illinois State Redbirds a great defensive end in his time with the team. After he left the team's defensive numbers have gone down every year. When Yaklich showed up at Michigan as a defensive assistant the team was #68 in defensive efficiency. They were #3 and #2 in the next two years. Texas also got better under him last year. 

Yaklich is preaching contesting jumpers and getting on the defensive glass to this UIC team. I expect them to be a good defensive team.

Northern Illinois struggled a lot with offensive efficiency last year. They don't have any new weapons that would make me expect them to improve on that end. This team doesn't get to the line much either. They are solid on defense and are very good defensive rebounders. 

I expect a low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks should play a lot quicker under new coach Takayo Siddle this year. UNC Wilmington didn't really have an identity last season. That will change this year. They will use full court pressure and try to get to the basket and get to the free throw line as much as possible on offense. Siddle was an assistant under Kevin Keatts, and his teams always rank in the top 50 in the nation in tempo.

Western Carolina has an underrated star in Mason Faulkner running the offense. The Catamounts were 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. They also prefer to play at a quick pace, so I don't see them slowing this one down. 

If the shooting numbers are terribly low this could stay under, but with normalized shooting numbers and the pace I'm expecting- I have to bet the over (my number here was 152.5) 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Maryland lost all sorts of star power from a year ago. They had the talent to make noise in March last year, but the season was shut down. Maryland now must rely on their defense this season. The Terrapins won't be able to crash the offensive boards and get a bunch of second chance points. Old Dominion is great on the defensive glass. 

The Monarchs are always amazing at turning games into a rock fight. Their five non conference games against top 100 teams last year all finished at 129 points or lower. Old Dominion is short on offensive firepower.

The pace of this game will be very slow. Both teams here settle for a lot of mid range jumpers that aren't very good looks.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings offense has been tremendous this year. Dalvin Cook looks like the best running back in the league. Minnesota has been very good offensively all year. They have been on another level offensively at home. How good? Minnesota is averaging a whopping 7.9 yards per play at home on the fast track so far this year. They have been above 7 yards per play in every game at home. The Cowboys weak defense is unlikely to have much success slowing them down either.

Dallas is getting healthier on the offensive line. Andy Dalton returns here. Dalton looked bad earlier this season, but he should get better blocking in front of him here. The Cowboys still have tremendous wide receivers. The Vikings secondary is still a major problem. Minnesota's defense has looked better in recent weeks, but those good performances are misleading. The Vikings slowed Green Bay because of 25 mph winds 3 games ago. A couple games ago they were able to slow the Lions offense down because Stafford got hurt in that game and Golladay didn't play. Minnesota then shut down the hapless Bears offense. The Vikings have improved some on defense, but they aren't good.

Dallas plays at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. The Vikings offense has been amazing at home. We're getting a total that is below average in today's NFL. The game is played in a dome.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints are expected to start Jameis Winston here. Drew Brees is out with an injury. Winston is clearly one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. He's also one of the best "over" quarterbacks in the NFL.

Winston is capable of a lot of throws many quarterbacks in the NFL aren't capable of. He can push it deep and really pressure a defense. At the same time, Winston is more capable of making poor decisions and throwing pick sixes than any other quarterback in the NFL. 

The Saints defense has been good of late, but Atlanta is a lot better offensively than the teams the Saints have been playing of late. Atlanta's wide receivers will put a lot of pressure on a Saints secondary that has been banged up of late. Atlanta should be able to move the ball pretty well here.

The Atlanta defense is last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Saints have weapons all over the field around the quarterback. It would be a big surprise if the Saints don't score a lot of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs have averaged 3.6 yards per play in all of their last four games. That is just woeful offense. Importantly, they played Vanderbilt last game and could only muster 14 first downs and 206 yards. 

Georgia's defense was embarrassed by Florida, and they should be ready to go for this one. Georgia is still a very good defense, and it would be a surprise if Mississippi State can do much of anything on offense here.

Georgia is in flux at quarterback. JT Daniels might get the start here. This offense is likely to be pretty conservative this week. Additionally, Mississippi State's defense has actually been very solid this year. They are 35th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Expect a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kansas State is an under team. They are well-coached, and Klieman knows the best way for his team to stay in games and win is slow the game down and win with defense and great special teams play. 

Kansas State wants to run the ball a lot, but Iowa State has the best run defense in the Big 12. The Wildcats aren't likely to have much success on the ground.

Iowa State has slowed their tempo down a lot this year. The Cyclones rank 106th in the nation in tempo. I don't think they'll be too aggressive on offense either.

Look for both defenses to have the upper hand here. The early forecast calls for a chance of rain and some wind here too. That would just be a bonus for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Cal picked up 2.8 yards per play on UCLA in their season opener. When I first saw that number I had to do a double take. UCLA's defense is very weak, and Cal could do nothing against them. 

Oregon State's defense fought hard against Washington on Saturday night. The Beavers aren't a great defense by any means, but with a total set this high against Cal, I think they can slow them down plenty to keep this under.

The Oregon State offense is pretty good on the ground, but the passing attack is a real problem right now. Their quarterback has shown no signs of being comfortable in this offense. Cal's defensive front is a strong one.

I like the line value here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the nation in tempo, and it isn't even close. North Texas is going to snap the ball as quickly as they possibly can. The Mean Green have yet to play a game this year that didn't have a final total of at least 70 points.

Rice is definitely a slower paced team, and the Owls will look to run the ball quite a bit here. Still, the Owls should break some big plays against a woeful North Texas defense. Additionally, North Texas will break some explosive plays against a questionable Rice run defense here as well.

This total has been bet down to the point I have to back the over. A total in the low 60's with one team (North Texas) snapping the ball every 19 seconds is an automatic look to the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Arkansas is playing at a really fast pace of late. Arkansas is using only 22.62 seconds between snaps. The Razorbacks have been inconsistent on offense, but LSU has been awful defensively all season.

LSU is giving up a whopping 7.21 yards per play so far this year. The Tigers have allowed 38 plays of 20 yards or more in only five games! Arkansas will get a lot of plays here, and they should break some big gainers.

LSU's offense is still very good. LSU is 38th in the nation in yards per play on offense, and they have been up against a few good defenses already this year. 

I see this as a back and forth game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Illinois Fighting Illini gave up more than 600 yards and 42 points against Nebraska last year. That was a 42-38 game. Two years ago when these teams played it was Nebraska 54-35 over Illinois.

Why is this total set so low? Nebraska has played three good defenses this year. They faced Ohio State, Northwestern, and Penn State. Nebraska struggled offensively in these games, but I expect the Cornhuskers to put up a big number here against a terrible Illinois defense.

Also, Illinois is expected to get back starting quarterback Brandon Peters. Isiah Williams is also expected to see some time as a great running threat at quarterback.

I think the fact that both of these teams have played some lower scoring games early this year has led to this total being lower than it should be. Early in the week the weather looked bad for this game, but now there is just a 25% chance of a light shower and very little wind.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota defense is so bad right now, I believe everyone they play will be able to put up quite a few points.

Minnesota has allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more in just four games. The Golden Gophers linebackers are weak, and they are being exposed by opponents on a weekly basis.

Minnesota still has a good quarterback and good wide receivers, and I think they can move the ball here on a subpar Purdue secondary.

Both coaches here are good offensive minds, and the weather looks good for this matchup. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Las Vegas Raiders offense is much better this year. Derek Carr has decided to take a lot more shots downfield, and it has made this offense work. Carr has turned into a solid quarterback, and he certainly has some good weapons around him.

The Denver Broncos have been giving up a lot of big plays of late, and Las Vegas has been getting those big gainers. Denver's defense has been a disappointment.

Las Vegas is favored here, and I do believe they should win this game. Denver has been able to put up a lot of points when trailing in the second half this year. Drew Lock is the king of the late game touchdown. Sometimes it has led to them coming back and winning late. Other times it has just let to the over cashing or Denver covering as an underdog ATS. 

Lock has a lot of weapons around him, and Denver has been playing quicker in recent weeks. Las Vegas still has a bad defense, especially in the secondary. I think Denver will be able to take advantage.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns host the Houston Texans on Sunday. Cleveland played in one major weather game earlier this year and lost to the Las Vegas Raiders 16-6. The two teams had 4.7 and 4.4 YPP. 

The weather for Sunday calls for 20 mph sustained winds and gusts of 30 mph. There is also a 60 percent chance of rain during the game. The rain would help, but the wind is the big deal here. 

The Texans offense isn't very good if they have to be more conservative. Watson has to be able to throw it around. It shouldn't be as easy as normal to do that in this game.

Cleveland's defense has gotten a little healthier of late, and I think this unit is a little better than their season stats look. 

Neither team plays all that fast to begin with, and they will have to play more conservatively with the weather like this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Oregon State wants to play slowly and run the football a lot. The Beavers were forced out of that style in the second half against Washington State, but they will try to control the ball and move slowly.

Washington is a team I like to be an under team with Jimmy Lake as their head coach. He wants to run the football and win with defense. Look for this team to be very physical and look to move the ball gradually down the field on long drives. 

The clock should be running a lot in this one. Washington has an elite secondary and Oregon State is unlikely to get much through the air.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I don't see Washington State having the same kind of offensive success against Oregon that they had against Oregon State.

Oregon's defense is the best in the Pac 12 on paper. The Ducks secondary is arguably the best in the country. As good as De Laura looked in week one against the Beavers, he shouldn't have as easy of a time against the Ducks.

I also want to note that Washington State played at a very slow pace in their week one win. This isn't going to be the aerial attack fast paced offense it was under Mike Leach. They will run the ball a lot more, and I expect them to play at a slower than average tempo.

The early weather report calls for strong winds in this game, and that is another positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack aerial attack really impresses me. Carson Strong is a really good fit for the air raid, and he has one of the best wide receivers in the country in Romeo Doubs. 

New Mexico was just torched through the air by a Hawaii team that isn't great in the passing game. New Mexico has already allowed eight plays of 40 yards or more in two games! This Lobos defense is really bad.

New Mexico plays very fast, and there should be quite a few possessions in this game. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here calls for winds of 20 mph during the game with gusts to 30 mph. There is also a 60-70% chance of rain during the game. That kind of weather can really change a game. 

Purdue is unsure if they will have Rondale Moore back for this game. He has been sidelined for undisclosed reasons. Purdue's running game has been very weak and the weather should hurt the passing attack.

Northwestern has a better quarterback this year, but they still aren't taking very many risks offensively. The Wildcats are actually playing at a slower pace this year than they did a year ago. 

This Northwestern defense is elite. They are 7th in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. Pat Fitzgerald's teams are always good on defense, and Northwestern has great veteran leaders at linebacker this year.

With these conditions, I'm on the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are a defensive-minded team. Baylor averages only 4.71 yards per play on offense. The Bears are allowing 3 sacks per game. Baylor also isn't getting many big plays. 

Texas Tech offensively has been a big disappointment. They haven't gotten the good quarterback play they expected. They have struggled to get explosive plays as well.

The weather here is a big reason for the play. The winds here are expected to be 25 mph sustained with gusts of 35-40 mph. That is some intense wind, and it will make both teams far more conservative. 

High totals with a lot of wind have been great under plays in the past, and I like the value here. Neither team has a good running game, and the passing game should be more difficult here with the weather conditions.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* UTEP will play about as slow as anyone in the country this year. Coach Dimel is looking to try to save the defense which isn't deep. They'll run the football and attempt to use the clock and win low scoring games. It's the recipe his old school (Kansas State) uses to win games.

UTSA is much improved on defense, and the area where they have been susceptible is through the air, but I don't see UTEP being able to take advantage of that weakness.

Look for both defenses to have the edge here in what should be a game where both teams struggle in the red zone.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers won 20-17 over TCU late last year in a game where neither team got to 300 yards of total offense. I think the defenses will be ahead of the offenses again here. 

TCU didn't look very good defensively early in the season, but in their last couple games they have rounded into form. Gary Patterson is a defensive-minded coach, so his defense improving at this stage of the season shouldn't be a surprise.

West Virginia ranks in the top ten nationally in all major defensive categories. They haven't played a tough schedule, but this TCU offense isn't good either. TCU lacks playmakers at the skill positions on offense. 

I see this as a lower scoring battle where both teams struggle to get into the end zone.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Tech Hokies run defense has been awful this year. Miami has big play potential in the backfield at all times. Virginia Tech has allowed 35 plays of 20 yards or more on the year. The Hokies are allowing 5.16 yards per carry on the year. 

Miami is allowing huge plays on defense this year too. This Hurricanes defense is far worse than they have been in recent seasons. Miami has allowed a whopping 37 plays of 20 yards or more already this season. 

Both Virginia Tech and Miami are much improved on offense this season. Miami is playing faster with King at quarterback as well. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 in the country in explosive plays on offense.

Expect a lot of big plays both ways.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers passing attack looked very good last week. I wasn't sure if Penix was going to be consistent as a passer, but he looked great against what should be at least a decent Michigan secondary last week. Indiana's single biggest strength on offense is their pass catchers. They have tremendous wide receivers and they have a lot of size. That will be very tough for Michigan State to matchup against this week. 

Michigan State has been known as a defensive juggernaut in recent seasons, but this team is far different. They allowed 38 to Rutgers and 49 to Iowa. It's true the offense and its miscues played a big role in those scores, but this defense is no longer any better than mediocre. 

Michigan State will have to throw the ball often here. Indiana's run defense is very strong, but I do think their secondary can be beaten by many teams. Since I think Indiana will be ahead here, that should put the Spartans in passing downs for much of the game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals lost 38-31 against Miami last week. Eastern Michigan lost 27-23 against Kent State last week. Ball State is going to have quite a few high scoring games this year, but I think Eastern Michigan wants to do everything they can to keep games lower scoring this season.

Eastern Michigan played slowly against Kent State, and the Eagles averaged only 4.5 yards per play in that game. They held Kent State to 27 points. Kent State was able to put up 62 points on Bowling Green on Tuesday night. Bowling Green averaged 5.8 yards per play on offense in that game, and I don't think Kent State's defense is very good. Eastern Michigan lacks playmakers on offense in a big way. Their offensive line has been a strength in the past, but it isn't anymore. 

Ball State's secondary was expected to be pretty good this year. They weren't good in week one, but I think they'll look better here. 

Since I expect Ball State to have the lead, I think they'll slow their tempo down later in the game here. This total is posted 5 points higher than the posted total when these two played last year. The final score in that game was 29-23.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the WEEK* The Miami Dolphins defense has been really good since they got healthy in the secondary. They spent a lot of money in the offseason to upgrade their secondary, and it has definitely worked. They have a defensive-minded coaching staff. Miami's pass defense grades out as a top five unit if you exclude the first couple weeks of the year.

Arizona has played fast this year, but they haven't had the explosive offense many expected. They have gotten yards in smaller chunks. I do think they'll be able to run the ball pretty well here, but that uses up the clock and I think they'll have to settle for some field goals.

Miami's offense with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback is a question mark. I'm surprised the team moved on from Fitzpatrick so soon when they were doing pretty well. I also will note that the Miami offense has faced the single easiest slate of defenses so far this year. Miami's offense still has a questionable offensive line and that could be a problem going forward.

The line has moved up here, and I'm happy to take the under at this number. Miami will move slowly and play conservatively. Arizona has been contained by the better defenses they have played.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New Mexico Lobos have a new coaching staff and they want to play as fast as they possibly can. New Mexico only used 22.75 seconds between plays last weekend. The Lobos did get 7 plays of 20 yards or more in game one. 

Hawaii will play quickly under Todd Graham. They struggled badly on offense last week against Wyoming, but this New Mexico defense is far worse than that Wyoming defense. New Mexico gave up 7.52 yards per play against a very ordinary San Jose State offense last week.

Look for a lot of points from both sides.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I have really been impressed with Coastal Carolina this year. How could you not be? Coastal Carolina is due for some regression to the mean on offense with their red zone and third down conversion numbers. Still, it is important to point out how much this Coastal defense has improved. Their defensive front is getting in the backfield a bunch, and they are up against a weak S Bama offensive line.

Both of these teams are very run heavy and they play slowly. Look for a lot of running clock in this one.

Take the under. 

*4 star Play Under* I'm very high on the Oregon defense this year. The Ducks have arguably the best secondary in the nation. They also have a good pass rush and good inside linebackers to stuff the run. It should be very hard to score on this team this season.

Stanford always plays slowly and I would expect the same this year. Stanford's defense looks improved especially in the secondary.

The Oregon offense is down a notch after they lost Justin Herbert. Look for a more conservative game plan from the Ducks this season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes don't have a good option at all at quarterback. They also have a new coaching staff who really wants to run the football and try to control the clock. I look for the Buffaloes offense to be much more conservative this year. They do have depth at the running back spot, and they are likely to use that early and often. 

UCLA has DTR at quarterback and he should be pretty good this year, but he doesn't have much talent around him, and the offensive line in front of him is a weak one. The UCLA defense isn't great by any means, but they are better than last year.

I don't think the market knows how much Colorado will run the football this year and play slowly. Look for them to grind away in this game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Florida Atlantic Owls have played three games this year. The final scores in those games have been: 21-17, 20-9, and 24-3. Western Kentucky has scored 14 points or less on offense in their last four straight games. These two teams have shown the ability to play in some very low scoring games. 

The tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will change this game. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 25-30 mph in this game with gusts to 40 mph. There is an 80 percent chance for rain and there could even be some heavy rain and thunderstorms during this one. 

These two teams are already fairly conservative on offense, but they will likely be even more conservative here. It will be very tough to kick field goals in this weather. 

Neither of these teams get many big plays to begin with, and in this weather that should be cut down even more.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Oklahoma State's game against Texas last weekend was deceptive. It was a very high scoring game, but Texas only gained a measly 3.8 yards per play. Oklahoma State turned the ball over in their own end a bunch, and they also gave up a kick return touchdown. 

Kansas State is a good under team with their running the football and very slow paced offense. 

Oklahoma State is a very run heavy team as well, and I think Kansas State will try to load up the box in this one.

The early forecast for this game calls for 25 mph winds with gusts of 35-40 mph. That would be a big boost to the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines defense was a disappointment last week against Michigan State. I think they'll play better here. Michigan has a strong defensive line. They are up against an Indiana team that is really struggling on the offensive front. Penix isn't a bad quarterback for Indiana, but he hasn't had much time to throw. Stevie Scott hasn't had anywhere to run either.

Michigan's offensive line is a major weakness this year too, and Indiana has a solid defensive front seven. I don't know that Michigan has the tools to make Indiana pay for their relative weakness in the secondary.

Both of these teams have struggled with getting big plays offensively in recent years. These are two teams with defensive-minded head coaches. 

I think this one should be around 51 so I'll take the value here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have been great at turning games into low scoring contests. Even in an NFL environment where there have been a lot of high scoring games this year, Chicago has seen 5 of their 7 games finish at 39 points or fewer. 

The New Orleans offense ranks 15th in the NFL in yards per play. New Orleans ranks 11th in yards per play allowed, but they have faced the toughest schedule of offenses in the NFL so far this year.

The Chicago offense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play. They don't have a good option at quarterback. This offense has been a mess all year long.

These two teams rank 25th and 27th in the NFL in explosive plays. These are teams who are far more likely to gradually move the ball down the field than do it in big chunks.

The weather is calling for winds of 12 or 13 mph with gusts to 22 mph for this game. That helps the under as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Four of the Patriots six games have finished at 39 points or fewer so far this year. The Patriots offense has all sorts of problems right now. The offensive line is badly banged up. Cam Newton isn't playing well and they don't have another good option to turn to. The Patriots have to be able to run the ball to move it consistently, but opponents are daring them to throw it and loading up the box. The Bills will do the same.

Buffalo's offense is shorthanded right now as well. Buffalo has to be able to throw to move the ball consistently, because this running game of Buffalo isn't good. The New England secondary is a relative strength too.

The weather here should be a problem. Some showers could be in the area, but the big deal here is the wind. Sustained winds of 21 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph will make both teams far more conservative here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders meet on Sunday in Cleveland. The story here will be the weather. The chance of rain is about 50% throughout this game, but that isn't the problem here for scoring. The problem is the huge amount of wind. The current average of forecasts I use (4 different weather sites) is 26 mph sustained winds with gusts of 43 mph. That would become one of the windiest games we have seen in a long time. 

We have seen under money come in on this game already, and I think it continues to come in as we get closer to game time. This kind of wind changes the game plan for both teams.

Baker Mayfield likes to throw the ball downfield, but he is without Odell Beckham Jr. here and it will be extremely hard to throw in this kind of wind. It is important to note that the wind is expected to be blowing from side to side in the stadium, and that makes it even tougher for quarterbacks. 

The Raiders passing attack has really impressed me this year, but it isn't likely to be nearly as successful as normal in these conditions. The Raiders offensive line has struggled in run blocking.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* I really like Carson Strong in the air raid offense of Nevada. Nevada's passing attack couldn't be stopped against a Wyoming defense that is clearly better than this UNLV defense. UNLV allowed 5.67 yards per play against San Diego State offense that has major problems. 

UNLV should improve some offensively, and I think they'll have to pick up their pace as they are likely playing from behind in this game. The Rebels have several options at quarterback this season.

I had this one in the low 60's.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I've been really impressed by the Arkansas secondary so far this year. They have faced some good passing attacks and really shut them down. Their performance against Ole Miss was particularly impressive. Barry Odom is doing a great job with this defense. 

Kellen Mond and Texas A&M are inconsistent on offense. I see this being a team that can look great on some days and terrible on others. Arkansas should give them enough looks that frustrate them and make them less efficient than normal.

Arkansas on offense has only 11 plays of 20 yards or more in four games. The Razorbacks don't get big chunks, and Texas A&M is a well-coached defense. 

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma State Cowboys are both significantly better on offense than they have been in recent seasons. They returned a lot of talent defensively, and Texas upgraded at the defensive coordinator spot. 

Oklahoma State is a run heavy team, so the clock should keep ticking on a lot of their offensive plays. Texas will give up some yards here, but they have been solid at not giving up big rushing plays. 

Texas' offensive line hasn't held up well against the best defensive lines they have played this year. I think this Oklahoma State defensive front gets in the backfield quite a bit in this contest.

The weather here calls for winds of 15-17 mph which is a bit of a help for the under as well.

The recent high scores between these two has given us some value on the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* With a new offensive coordinator this year, Northwestern is playing much quicker. The Wildcats offense looked great against Maryland in game one. They averaged 6.47 yards per play in that contest. Iowa is clearly better on defense than Maryland, but Iowa's defense is definitely down from a couple years ago.

Iowa still has enough weapons on offense to move the ball at least some of the time in this game.

The posted total was set so low that with the pace Northwestern is playing at, I had to back the over here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights only scored a bunch of points on Michigan State because Michigan State turned the ball over 7 times! Rutgers only managed 3.9 yards per play on offense. The Scarlet Knights will be improved on offense from a year ago (it would be hard not to be), but this offense isn't good. 

Rutgers will play at a relatively slow pace this year, and I would expect a lot of running plays. That plays into the strength of the Indiana defense, which is their front seven. Indiana has gotten so much better against the run in the last few years under Tom Allen. 

Indiana wasn't good offensively against Penn State. They averaged only 3.4 yards per play on offense. Again, it was Penn State's miscues that led to easier scores for Indiana. The Hoosiers will look quite a bit better on offense here, but their offensive line isn't very good. I think Penix and the skill position players will make some nice plays, but I don't think they totally dominate this Rutgers defense.

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights games have been extremely high scoring this year. In fact, three of their five games have finished with 79 points or more. The Knights other two games finished with 60 and 70 points. 

UCF ranks third in the nation in tempo. They are averaging a whopping 7.05 yards per play. Houston's defense has been terrible against the pass, and UCF has plenty of weapons in the passing game. BYU put up 43 points on Houston, and BYU doesn't play at a quick pace.

The UCF defense has disappointed this year. They have allowed 34 points or more in their last three games. Houston's weapons at skill positions on offense are very solid.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles play at an extremely slow pace. They are using nearly 33 seconds between plays, which would have ranked them as the slowest pace team in the nation last season. This is an extremely slow paced team that runs the football nearly 75% of the time. There will be a lot of running clock in this one. 

South Alabama is improved on offense, but they have played some really weak defense and they are due for some regression. They are converting on 49.32% of third down conversion attempts and that can't continue for a team that is getting behind the chains with as many big negative plays as they are right now. They are improved on offense, but they aren't this much better. South Alabama is also slower than the average team by quite a bit in terms of tempo. 

Some wind is expected for this one in Statesboro on Thursday night. Sustained winds of about 16 mph are a boost to the under. 

This midweek games have trended under through the years in college football. I see value on the under here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The last two years these two teams have met and the final scores were 15-6 and 17-7. That certainly isn't the only reason I'm betting the under here, but it is a good start.

The Chicago Bears offense ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per play. Chicago's offensive line is questionable, and the Rams do bring a lot of pressure. Look for the LA defensive line led by Aaron Donald to be in the backfield quite a bit in this one. Nick Foles hasn't been terrible, but he has been a game manager. They don't take a lot of shots downfield. Chicago moves pretty slowly, and has had to settle for field goals often in the red zone. 

The Rams offense is good, but they have played a lot of weaker defenses this year. That won't be the case in this one. Chicago has the best secondary in the league, and we've seen this secondary give Jared Goff a lot of trouble the last two seasons. Robert Woods is questionable here with an injury, and if he doesn't play or isn't 100 percent that slows this Rams offense down. 

This field has seen a bunch of low scoring games played on it. The referee crew in this one has also been very good to under bettors.

Look for the defenses to have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots offense has been a mess of late. Their offensive line is badly banged up now, and they can't keep the running game going as they were earlier in the season. New England has averaged only 5.3 yards per play in their last three contests. 

The Patriots had high scoring games against the Seahawks and Raiders, but those two teams have some of the highest scoring games of anyone in the NFL. The Patriots other three games have all finished at 36 points or lower.

The 49ers have been playing slower of late. San Francisco ranks 27th in the NFL in tempo. The 49ers are trying to lean heavily on their running game. New England is good at not allowing big plays, so I think the 49ers drives will take quite a while in this one.

New England runs the ball at the third highest rate as a percentage of plays. They also rank in the bottom 10 in tempo in their last three contests. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The two times these teams met last year the final scores were 23-3 and 30-6. The Chiefs defense is better than most people realize. Kansas City is able to pressure the quarterback and they have a good pass defense. The Broncos lack a strong running game to be able to move the ball consistently on the Chiefs.

The Denver offense is a mess. The Broncos may have won last weekend, but it was because of the defense and not the offense. The Denver defense is very strong on the defensive line. Denver doesn't allow many big plays. 

The other factor here is the weather. Snow is in the forecast for this game. Snow likely with wind as well. When you combine those two, it is a clear help for the under.

I think this number drops through the week with the weather, and I like the chances of this being a lower scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* Nevada returns 10 starters on the offensive end this year. They will run the air raid with Mumme as their offensive coordinator. With a second year quarterback who looked good as a freshman, I expect their offensive numbers to be much better this season.

Wyoming has two solid quarterback options in Chambers and Williams. The Wyoming offensive line is probably the best offensive line in the Mountain West. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball on nearly everyone in this conference. 

Wyoming's defense should be way down from a year ago, and that is the primary reason I think this total is several points too low. 

With more scoring in general this year, this is a very low posted total. I think both teams get into the mid 20's here at least.

Take the over. TOP Rated play. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* Texas has had several high scoring games that are very misleading. They went into 4 overtimes vs. Oklahoma, but both teams averaged less than 5 yards per play. They also had a bunch of special teams/defensive setups for scores against Texas Tech in a game that should have never been so high scoring.

Baylor has a great defensive mind at head coach now and I think they can scheme their way to making Texas work hard. Also, Texas lost their top receiver due to injury.

My number here is in the upper 50's. Take the under. TOP Rated play. 

*4 Star Play Over* Ole Miss is one of the best over teams in the country right now. Lane Kiffin's team was slowed down by the windy weather, a bunch of turnovers, and a really good Arkansas secondary last weekend. That made this total low enough to bet the over.

Auburn's offense was better than the final score would indicate against South Carolina. It was their turnovers that really stopped them. Auburn averaged 5.8 yards per play. They are up against a much weaker defense in Ole Miss this week.

The Ole Miss offense is the best offense Auburn has faced so far this year. While Auburn doesn't have a bad defense, it is clearly much weaker than it was a year ago.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams both rank in the top 15 in the country so far this year in tempo. Temple's defense has been a strength in recent years, but they lost nearly everything they had from a year ago. 

Memphis is going to score a lot of points on nearly everyone in this conference with their skill position talent and the tempo they play at on a consistent basis. Temple should be able to throw the ball on this Memphis secondary, especially if they are playing from behind. 

While this total is set at a high level, I had this one a few points higher. Look for a lot of points in this contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles have been able to score points when they get down early and need to comeback in the fourth quarter, but in other spots, they have struggled offensively. 

Philadelphia is 26th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. Carson Wentz isn't a bad quarterback, but he has been without an offensive line and many of the weapons around him all year. Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffrey are out for this one. Jack Driscoll is also out on the line. Lane Johnson is expected to try to play, but he is far less than 100 percent.

New York put up a big number on Dallas' defense, but who hasn't? The Giants have averaged less than 14 points per game in their other five games this year. This New York offense is awful. Saquon Barkley is missed badly, and Daniel Jones has been very weak as a passer. 

The Eagles still have a strong defensive front seven, and I don't think the Giants can consistently move the ball through the air on many teams. 

The Giants defense has shown signs of life lately. They have been especially strong against the run.

This is a divisional game that does mean a lot to the teams since the NFC East is wide open.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers secondary is a mess right now. Miami put up 6.9 yards per play in a win over the 49ers last week. The Rams offense is a top ten offense in the NFL. I don't see the 49ers defense being able to stop the Rams passing attack. There are too many weapons for the Rams, and Sean McVay is good at scheming in a way to attack weaknesses. The Rams should put up a big number here.

The 49ers are starting to get healthier on offense. Jimmy G was put in last week when he had little practice, and some of the weapons around him were missing. I think the 49ers offense can be much better this week. The Rams had a couple defensive players banged up in their win at Washington last week, and this is a Rams defense that is very thin at multiple positions. The Rams defense isn't nearly as good as they look on paper. They have faced a very weak slate of offenses. 

In fact, if you look at the offenses these two defenses have faced so far this year, they rank as the 2nd easiest and 3rd easiest slate of offenses according to Football Outsiders. These defenses are worse than they appear.

I see a back and forth game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers offense has been tremendous so far this year. They are averaging 38 points per game thus far this season. Green Bay hasn't had Devante Adams for their last couple games, and he is their best weapon on offense. I don't think Tampa Bay has anyone who can slow Adams down on the outside. Aaron Rodgers has been in great form so far this season. He is willing to take a lot of deep chances, and in past seasons this Tampa secondary has given up a lot of big plays in the passing game.

Tampa Bay's offense has been up against some very solid defenses so far this season. The Packers defense will be the worst defense they have faced so far this year. Tampa Bay's wide receivers are finally getting healthy, and this is one of the best groups of receivers in the NFL. I think Tampa will be able to move the ball consistently here too.

Jerome Boger's crew is the referee crew for this game. The over is 106-74 (58.9%) in his games. They are known for their consistent pass interference calls on the defense.

This is a high total, but I think both teams move the ball and cash in on big plays throughout.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the nation in tempo, and it isn't particularly close. This team is absolutely flying up and down the field. Their offense is solid. They haven't scored in the red zone at the rate you would expect or they would have scored even more points. That should improve over time.

North Texas' defense might be the worst in the country. They give up big gainers constantly. MTSU has been inconsistent on offense this year, but against this North Texas defense they should be able to move the ball and score easily.

MTSU's defense is very weak against the run, and that is the strength of the North Texas offense.

I made this total in the low 70's, so I like the value here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Wake Forest plays extremely fast. They want their game to be a shootout, and they have been pretty good at forcing those shootouts. Wake Forest has a good quarterback in Hartman and they have enough skill position players to give Virginia some trouble. The Cavs secondary isn't what it was a couple years ago.

Virginia's starting quarterback is questionable here, and we may well see the backup here. That is a big reason why this total has moved down. I wouldn't have bet this game over the total at the opening line, but after the substantial drop this one is too good of a price for me to pass up.

Virginia has sped up their pace of play this year. We have two teams ranked in the top 14 in tempo out of all the teams playing thus far this season. 

We have seen a lot of higher scoring games in college football this year, and a number this low in a Wake Forest game is an over bet for me unless they are playing an elite defense. They aren't in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Duke is playing 2.5 seconds faster between snaps than they were a year ago. We have seen a couple high scoring games from the Blue Devils in their last two contests. I think we will see another one here.

Chase Brice is being more aggressive with the football. That can be good for the over because he throws pick sixes, and it can be good because Duke is getting more big plays than they did a year ago. 

These teams have given up 23 and 24 plays of 30 yards or more already this year. Both offenses rank in the top ten in explosive plays. We should see tempo and plenty of big gainers.

The weather looks good in this one, and I had this one projected several points higher.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here plays a large role in me taking the under. Sustained winds of 22 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph are in the forecast for South Bend. That kind of weather really changes the game, and makes both offenses more predictable. In the long run, that kind of weather has been great for under bettors.

Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo, so we shouldn't see too many possessions here. 

The Louisville defense has been bad this year, and I do think Notre Dame will score a decent amount of points here. Notre Dame's defense is pretty good, and Louisville should be more one dimensional than normal here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames have a very good quarterback in Malik Willis. Willis is an excellent runner who can really put pressure on a defense with his dual threat abilities. The Syracuse defense wasn't very good to start with, and now they are without star safety Andre Cisco. Syracuse gave up more than 600 yards last week against Duke. I think Liberty will move the ball quite a bit here.

Liberty's defensive numbers look pretty good this year, but you have to consider who they have played against. The Flames have faced Western Kentucky, FIU, UL Monroe, and an FCS team. Those are terrible offensive teams. Syracuse is bad offensively as well, but they have much higher recruited talent than any of those other teams. They also play at a very fast tempo.

This is a game played inside and with a total set at a low level. Given the pace these two teams play at, I like the value on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers missed a chance to finish off the Miami Heat in Game 5 on Friday night. 

The Lakers also failed to win that game despite some red hot shooting from beyond the arc from LeBron James. James is only a mediocre 3 point shooter (he's great at everything else), but he was 6/9 from long range on Friday night. The Lakers were shooting 56% from the floor in the middle of the third quarter in game five. The game did slow down and it narrowly edged over the total because of 17 points in the last 1:52 of the contest in Game 5.

Miami and Los Angeles combined to average 1.17 points per possession in Game 5, which is far above their season averages. Both teams shot the ball really well from the floor. The teams also combined to shoot a sizzling 91% from the free throw line. The 39 points from the charity stripe were key in sending the game just over the posted total.

The under has been great bet in the long run in close out games in the NBA playoffs. The pace tends to slow and the defenses lock in even more. 

The average pace in games 4 and 5 has been 92.75 possessions. If game 6 has 93 possessions, the teams could average 1.16 and 1.15 points per possession and it still stays under this total. For the season as a whole, both of these teams averaged a tick under 1.12 points per possession.

Since there is so much on the line and the shooting numbers were clearly above average in Game 5, I'm going to side with the under here in Game 6.

If both teams shoot the lights out it will lose, but history is on our side and the line value is there.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs have a tremendous offense. They are more than capable of putting up a big number at any time. Still, Andy Reid's teams have been great under bets when they are big favorites. Why? Reid is often conservative after getting a lead. His teams grab a lead and then use the clock and move on to play another week. 

Kansas City plays Buffalo in their next contest after this as well, and that will be a huge game for playoff seeding with the Bills sitting at unbeaten so far this year. 

Las Vegas has a good running game, and I do think they'll get their yards on the ground in this game. The Raiders don't have a good downfield passing game though. The Chiefs actually rank #1 in the NFL in pass defense DVOA so far this year. They now add in Breeland (suspended the first four weeks). This Chiefs secondary is solid. 

There is wind of 12-15 mph expected here and while that isn't major, that does help the under a bit.

The biggest reason I'll bet this game is this system- when Andy Reid's team is at home and favored by 6 or more the under is a whopping 41-19 in the last 60 contests. When the total is 44.5 or higher, the under is 24-7. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats are going to do a lot of running the football this year. They ran all over Ole Miss, but the Mississippi State defense should be a tougher task. Kentucky will still get a lot of yards. I do expect it to take them time though. Look for Kentucky to try to keep the ball away from Mike Leach's air raid offense by controlling the time of possession here.

Mississippi State has allowed only 1.91 yards per carry so far this year. The offense looked amazing against LSU, but it stumbled badly against Arkansas. The Kentucky defense is a veteran group and with an 0-2 record coming into this one, we should get a strong effort from Kentucky.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The highest total in a game between these two teams in the last four years has been a combined score of 41 points.

TCU's defense hasn't looked good in the first two games of the season, but Patterson is a defensive-minded coach and this group has a lot of talent. I would expect much better results going forward.

Kansas State has a QB injury with Skylar Thompson questionable here. Even if he does play I like this under. The Wildcats play very slowly and they won't change that style no matter what.

TCU's offense isn't very efficient, and Kansas State's isn't either.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles host the Pitt Panthers on Saturday afternoon. I've really been impressed with this Boston College defense under new coach Jeff Hafley. He was a defensive coordinator at Ohio State and did a great job with that Buckeyes defense. He is already helping this Eagles defense immensely.

Pitt has a top five defense in the country. Rashad Weaver is one of the best pass rushers in the country. The Panthers rank 3rd in the nation in yards per carry allowed (1.98). 

The weather in this game should be helpful. Sustained winds of about 20 mph are in the forecast with gusts to 25 or 30 mph. That is enough to change the game, especially since the winds are forecast to be blowing side to side in the stadium rather than at the back of either team.

Both of these teams prefer to throw rather than run, but the weather will make it more difficult. Both teams have really struggled to get any running game going. 

I expect a defensive battle here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game is set for Saturday afternoon in Jonesboro, Arkansas. The weather forecast for here looks very bleak. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. There is also a 50% chance of rain through the day. 

Arkansas State doesn't have a good defense, but they are stepping down in class to play Central Arkansas instead of Memphis, Kansas State, or a good Coastal Carolina offense. 

Arkansas State is more than a two touchdown favorite here. The Red Wolves and the Bears of Central Arkansas are very likely to play more conservatively with this kind of weather. It would be very hard to throw the football very often with winds blowing side to side at 20-35 mph here.

The run defenses aren't very good, but if they know what is coming it should help quite a bit. Totals set this high in weather games have been great under bets over the years. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames are expected to have Malik Willis back for this one. He is a star quarterback who can do it all. ULM's defense has already allowed 21 plays of 20 yards or more, and Liberty will get a lot of big gainers in this one as well.

Liberty pushes the tempo, and they'll be playing in the lead here. ULM will have no choice but to pick up the pace.

ULM showed some offensive strength finally last weekend against a decent Georgia Southern defense. Liberty is very weak defensively, and ULM should be able to produce enough offensively here, especially since they should get some garbage time points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Carolina Tar Heels offense hasn't been very good so far this year, but this offense has too much talent to struggle all season. Sam Howell is one of the better quarterbacks in the nation. He has a good offensive line and very good receivers around him as well.

Virginia Tech's running game has really impressed me so far this year. The Hokies are averaging a whopping 7.01 ypc through their first two games. I certainly don't expect anything like that in this game, but the Hokies offensive line has been great in run blocking. North Carolina's defense hasn't been tested by a team that has any semblance of a running game.

There is some rain in the forecast for this one which has made the total go down a few points, but the projected wind is 4 mph. Rain without wind is a neutral for the total. 

There are numerous injuries and COVID related absences in the secondary for both teams. That could lead to some big plays for both teams.

Hendon Hooker is expected to play for Virginia Tech here, and he is their top option at quarterback.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers now lead the Miami Heat 3-1 in this series. The Lakers were much better defensively in game four. They were able to take away Butler's looks in the paint. Look for that to be a strategy that continues into this game to try to pack the paint as much as possible and force Butler to be a passer more often than not. 

Miami's defense is significantly better with Bam Adebayo on the floor. He is a good shot blocker near the rim. He also helps a lot on the defensive glass. Without him, the Lakers were crushing the Heat on the offensive boards. Adebayo isn't 100 percent, but him being on the floor is a positive for the under.

The average tempo of the last three games in this series is 94 possessions. Closeout games often see a slow pace (especially if they are a tight game). If we see 94 possessions here, both teams could average 1.15 points per possession from the floor (very efficient on offense) and this one would fall just below 217 points.

I think the tempo points this one to an under without a ref show or some ridiculous 3 point shooting. Those are always possible, but there is an edge here with the under with the projected pace and the Heat with their top defensive player again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave have played faster this year. They will still run the football early and often, but I think that will help them against a Houston Cougars defense that should be weak against the run this year. Tulane's uptempo run game should get yards in bunches here.

Houston has yet to play a game, but Dana Holgorsen has talked about wanting to play quickly. The Cougars have improved weapons at the skill positions around Clayton Tune this season. Tulane has yet to play against a really good offense. I think the Tulane secondary can be beaten.

These two put up 69 points last year. I had this number several points higher than the current posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees lineup got healthy at the right time of the year. With everyone ready to go, this is a scary good lineup. New York is averaging 9 runs per game through their first four games in the playoffs. Stanton is absolutely crushing the baseball, and there isn't an easy out in this lineup.

Charlie Morton was a little shaky this season. He certainly has good stuff, but he isn't consistent and he'll have to be consistently tremendous to slow down this Yankees lineup. Morton has allowed the Yankees lineup a .349 weighted on base average in his career. 

The Yankees start Masahiro Tanaka who was really bad in his first playoff outing. Tanaka has allowed a .309 wOBA against this Rays lineup. Tampa Bay's offense is better than most realize, and the Rays should get plenty of scoring chances here.

Mark Carlson is a clear over umpire based on his strikes called percentages in recent years, and he is behind home plate for this one.

The ball has really been flying well in the playoffs, and I'll take the over in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Lakers beat the Miami Heat 124-114 in Game 2. The fact that last game was so high scoring creates an opportunity for us to get a much higher posted total for this contest. 

The shooting numbers last game were extremely high. These teams aren't likely to shoot it as well as they did in game 2. 

The Lakers put up a ridiculous 1.348 points per possession. Miami put up 1.253 points per possession on Friday night. The overall playoff averages are 1.168 for the Lakers and 1.133 for the Heat. 

The pace was actually much slower in game two than in game one. Miami is shorthanded here, and that could certainly make their defense a bit worse, but the Lakers scoring 1.348 points per possession against this scrappy Heat defense shouldn't be expected again. Additionally, the Lakers players said at length on Saturday that the team had talked about their disappointment with their defense in their game 2 win, and that would be an area of focus on Sunday.

This is the highest posted total for any matchup between these two teams this year. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The NFL's rules right now are clearly favoring the offenses. Teams are playing quicker this year as well. The market continues to try to adjust to the higher totals, but there hasn't been a big enough adjustment yet.

The Minnesota Vikings had one terrible game offensively against the Indianapolis Colts. That was a fluke, and it turns out the Colts defense is very solid. In their other two games, the Vikings have averaged 7.5 yards per play (Titans) and 7.8 yards per play (Packers). The emergence of Jefferson as another very good weapon on the outside makes the Vikings passing game dangerous.

Minnesota's defense is far worse than it was a couple short seasons a go. This Vikings secondary is among the worst in the NFL. They also have a very poor defensive line (especially without Hunter). 

Houston has played the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far, and the Texans are going to score points against bad defenses. Here is a bad defense in the Vikings. Look for Watson and company to put up some big numbers.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Bucs defense ranks 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed per game. The rushing defense is as good as you'll find in the NFL, and the secondary is quickly improving. Todd Bowles is a great defensive coordinator and he is really making his mark on this unit.

The LA Chargers haven't given up more than 23 points in a game so far this year (and that was KC scoring 23 in overtime against them). The Chargers secondary is very solid, and they have a strong pass rush.

Tom Brady hasn't looked in sync yet, and Leonard Fournette is out for this game. Chris Godwin is also out at WR. 

The Chargers are without two starters on the offensive line. Tampa Bay's defensive front should dominate them here.

Justin Herbert is making his first road start here. I expect him to struggle in this one.

The weather calls for a 80% chance of rain and some winds of about 10-12 mph during this one as well, which helps the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins rank 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Seattle Seahawks rank 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. 

Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar are both out from the Seattle secondary for this one. Adams is the best player in this secondary, and that is a huge loss for a team that is already giving up a lot of big plays in the air. Three other guys in the Seattle secondary are questionable here. There are major injury issues in the Seattle secondary.

Miami cornerback Byron Jones is listed as doubtful here, and he would be a major loss as the Dolphins go against Russell Wilson and this fantastic Seattle passing attack. 

Seattle has been letting Russell Wilson air it out a lot more often this year, and I see no reason why they would stop here. The Dolphins weakness now is in the secondary and Seattle has clear matchup advantages there. 

Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of big plays for Miami, especially against a really weak Seattle secondary. Seattle is 30th in explosive play defense, so they have already been giving up  bunch of big plays and now they are much more banged up.

The weather initially looked questionable for this game, but the current forecast looks much better with a very small chance for rain and less wind (12 mph). 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the country in tempo so far this year, and it isn't very close. North Texas coach Seth Littrell took over the offense this year and he said they wanted to go fast. He wasn't kidding. 

North Texas has a good spread offense with the ability to run or throw. The Mean Green are averaging 7.16 yards per play this year (9th in the country so far). 

Southern Miss allowed 66 points in an embarrassing loss to Tulane last week. I'm not expecting that kind of number allowed here, but this Southern Miss defense is allowing all kinds of big plays. They have already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more this year. 

Southern Miss does have a good passing attack. I expect them to be able to move the ball against a North Texas defense that is one of the worst in the country. North Texas gave up 65 points to SMU. Southern Miss definitely isn't SMU, but the Golden Eagles should be able to throw it around here too.

The pace should be there the whole way. Yes, this is a very high total, but my numbers put this game reaching into the upper 70's.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss offense is going to play extremely fast under Lane Kiffin this year. Ole Miss gashed a really solid Florida defense this past weekend. They had 7 plays of 30 yards or more. Amazing. 

Kentucky has a pretty good defense, but I don't think they'll shut down Ole Miss either. The Rebels have a lot of playmakers at the skill positions on offense and they'll be put in a good position to succeed. 

Kentucky's offensive line is much better than the Ole Miss defensive front. I would expect Kentucky to have a much easier time moving the ball than they did last week against Auburn's defense.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats put up a big number last week, but that was largely due to Oklahoma's mistakes. Kansas State only had 10 first downs in that contest.

Kansas State is playing at the third slowest pace of any team currently playing in college football. This team wants to run the ball and use up the clock. They should want to do that even more than normal here to keep Alan Bowman and this Texas Tech offense off the field. 

Texas Tech still plays quickly on offense, but they aren't quite as fast as they were a few years ago. The Red Raiders offense is far less efficient as well. They are only 23rd out of 72 teams in the country in yards per play on the year. Last week's game against Texas was misleading from a totals standpoint. Texas Tech only gained 5.8 yards per play and allowed just 5.3 yards per play against Texas. 

The last two years the meetings between these two teams have stayed well under this posted total. 

It isn't easy taking an under in a Texas Tech game, but I think Kansas State will control the tempo here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners have played much quicker this year than they did a year ago. UTSA averaged 25.79 seconds between snaps last year, but they are averaging only 22.35 seconds between snaps this year. 

UTSA also only averaged 5.06 yards per play last season, but they are at 5.86 yards per play this year. Their running game has had quite a bit of success in the early going. 

UAB is also playing a little more than a second quicker this year. The Blazers quarterback for this one is Bryson Lucero, who had a big game last week against UAB. I think he gives the team more big play ability through the air than Johnston does. 

UTSA has a very weak defense. They are unlikely to be able to slow down UAB here. While UAB does have a good pass defense, their run defense has been shaky this season. Look for UTSA to be able to break some big gainers in the running game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I see West Virginia as an under team with their strong defensive front and weak offensive line. The Mountaineers don't push the tempo like most in the Big 12 do either.

Baylor looks like they were great offensively against Kansas if you just look at the final score, but that was primarily special teams greatness against a terrible Kansas kick coverage team. Baylor's YPP was a weak 5.25 against a bad Kansas defense.

Coach Aranda is obviously a defensive guy and Baylor should be pretty good on defense. 

The Mountaineers defense is one of the best in the Big 12. 

This one is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NFL's rules right now are clearly favoring the offenses. Teams are playing quicker this year as well. The market continues to try to adjust to the higher totals, but there hasn't been a big enough adjustment yet.

Kansas City's defense has allowed 6.1 yards per play against the Chargers and 6.7 yards per play against the Texans. They have really struggled with mobile quarterbacks in their first two games. That isn't a good weakness to have when you are about to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. 

Kansas City's offense hasn't been amazing so far this year, but we all know it is coming. The Chiefs have too much talent and they are certainly going to finish the season as a top 2 or 3 offense in the NFL. 

Baltimore gets more big plays in the running game than any other team in the NFL. The Chiefs are weak in that regard. Additionally, the Chiefs are still shorthanded in the secondary without Breeland. 

I think the Ravens get the lead in this one, and that encourages more scoring here since KC can really play with pace and pile up the points when they are behind.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals are playing extremely fast this year. Kyler Murray in the second year of Kingsbury's system will be very good. Hopkins gives him an elite wide receiver. They are likely to finish with the fastest pace in the NFL this season.

Arizona moved the ball pretty well against San Francisco, and they moved it very well against a strong Washington defensive front. The Cardinals now take on a very weak Detroit Lions defense. Detroit has major problems in the secondary. Mitch Trubisky lit them up in the 4th quarter in week one. 

Green Bay averaged 7.4 yards per play in their big win over Detroit. I'm not convinced Detroit will be able to slow down Arizona here.

Arizona hasn't been tested very much defensively this year. The Cardinals played a 49ers team with a bunch of injuries on offense in week one. They took on a Washington team that is just weak on offense in their second game. 

Look for lots of plays in this one and big plays for both sides in the passing game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Denver Broncos have a lot of questions, but they are almost all on the offensive side. The Broncos defense still is very strong. 

Tampa Bay did win last week against Carolina, but they weren't all that good offensively. The Bucs are only averaging 5.3 yards per play this year (24th in the NFL). 

Denver's offense has been even worse. Denver is averaging only 4.9 yards per play on the season. The Broncos are now with backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. Driskel isn't a big downgrade from Drew Lock, but Driskel is going to have a rough time here against a very strong Tampa Bay defense.

I love the job Todd Bowles is doing with the Tampa Bay defense. They have been excellent at stopping the run in recent seasons, and that is still true, but they are much improved all around this year. I don't think the Broncos offensive line will perform well against them. Denver will try to play conservatively here, but I don't think they'll have much success.

The weather is another real factor here. The forecast calls for 18-20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 35-40 mph. That is plenty to change a game plan. Expect to see a lot of running and short passes. It will be harder to stretch the field.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals defense has one sack so far this year. Without Carson Wentz being pressured constantly, I think this Eagles offense can get going here. Cleveland moved the ball at will against Cincinnati last week. 

Cincinnati's offense will be clearly improved this year. Joe Burrow has looked very good in his first two games. Remember, he didn't get any preseason, and he has still played very well as a rookie in his first two games. The Bengals should be able to take advantage of the Eagles very weak linebackers. Burrow likes to use his tight ends in the passing game, and that should help here.

The Eagles should have the lead here (they are a clear favorite), and the Bengals have played extremely fast when trailing so far this year. The Bengals have shown they have backdoor potential and can move the ball quickly late in the game.

This one sits below the key numbers of 47 and 48. With no bad weather in the forecast, I like this one to get past the posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers should lean on the run game a lot this year. The strength of their entire team is the offensive line. They played slowly a year ago, and I expect them to play slowly again this season. 

Tennessee's defense didn't give up big plays last year. They were 3rd in the nation in fewest 20 yards or more plays allowed. With the secondary as a major strength I see that being the case again this year.

South Carolina brought in Mike Bobo to be the new offensive coordinator. He has talked extensively about the team huddling up this year and slowing the tempo down a lot compared to what it was in recent seasons. Collin Hill won the starting job and I'm not high on him at quarterback. There isn't enough talent on this South Carolina offense. Marshawn Lloyd was going to be the star of the show here at RB, but he is out for the year with an injury.

Look for a slow pace and a lot of moving clock in this game. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Boyd starts here against the Kansas City Royals. He shut them out last time against them, but this lineup has crushed him in his career overall. The Royals have a whopping .402 weighted on base average in 190 plate appearances against Boyd.

Boyd's numbers this year are far worse across the board than last year. He has given up a lot more hard hit batted balls. He is giving up home runs in bunches. That doesn't bode well for him here with the weather forecast of temperatures in the 80's and wind blowing out 15-20 mph. The ball will carry well in KC on Saturday.

Carlos Hernandez starts for the Royals, and he hasn't pitched above Single A until this month. He has a 3.46 ERA, but his FIP is 7.03 so he has been very fortunate.

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire and he is one of the best over umpires in baseball.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils offense hasn't been able to get going in the first two weeks. Struggling on offense against Notre Dame was to be expected, but averaging less than 5 yards per play against a questionable Boston College defense last week is a cause for concern.

Virginia lost star Bryce Perkins, and their offense will look totally different. Virginia threw it on more than 54% of their plays last year, and I would expect a lot more running this season. They are likely to play slowly and try to keep the clock moving. 

Duke's secondary is injured badly, but the Blue Devils have great pass rushers. Virginia doesn't have the passer or receivers to make Duke pay through the air. 

The Virginia defense is strong led by a great group of linebackers. The Duke offensive front is likely to struggle with the front seven of the Cavs. 

Look for a tight low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Spencer Sanders' injury hurts the Oklahoma State offense in a big way. Their backups are extremely weak as we saw on Saturday against Tulsa. The Cowboys were outgained by Tulsa, and their offensive line play was poor.

Sanders is very questionable for this game (he's in a boot right now), and even if he plays he will be far less than 100%.

The Mountaineers defensive line is the strength of their team. They should be able to slow down strong running attacks this year. 

Last year when these two teams met the final was 20-13. West Virginia's defense is better than it was a year ago. Oklahoma State returned 10 guys on defense, and they looked great in the season opener (though it was against Tulsa). 

With the uncertainty around Sanders, I believe this line is several points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs offense isn't likely to be good this year. They have serious questions at the quarterback spot. Matthew Downing has been named the TCU starter at quarterback. Max Duggan has been cleared to play and might play some (he was diagnosed with a heart condition in the offseason). The Horned Frogs offensive line will have trouble with strong defensive fronts this year. 

Iowa State's offense is Brock Purdy and a bunch of question marks. Purdy is a solid quarterback, but the line in front of him and skill position talent around him isn't nearly as good as it was a year or two ago. 

TCU's defense looks much stronger on the defensive front this year, and Gary Patterson's teams are always good in the secondary.

Iowa State's defense should get in the TCU backfield quite a bit here.

In my opinion, these are the top two defenses in the Big 12.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange offense is dreadful. Syracuse is averaging less than 3 yards per play through their first two games. Pitt is a great defense so we can give them a partial pass for that, but North Carolina's defense isn't tremendous. Still, averaging 2.85 yards per play and having allowed 14 sacks in two games is just brutal. Neither of Syracuse's quarterbacks are the answer. The offensive line might be the worst in the country. 

Georgia Tech's defense is improving under Collins, who is a defensive-minded head coach. The Yellow Jackets allowed a bunch of points last week against UCF, but UCF is going to score in bunches against nearly everyone. Look for Georgia Tech's defense to look strong again in this one. 

The Syracuse defense has impressed me so far this year. They are running a new 3-3-5 defense, and it is hard prepare for. The Orange have confused opposing offenses. Georgia Tech has some improved skill position talent, but they are still young and I think the 3-3-5 can at least slow them down.

Syracuse isn't going to just methodically move the ball up and down the field on anyone in their current state. If they don't hit big home run long touchdown, they aren't scoring. Look for the defenses to hold the upper hand in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins pass defense has struggled badly through their first two weeks. Buffalo threw for more than 400 yards on them a week ago. Byron Jones is doubtful for this game, and he is clearly a very talented member of the Dolphins secondary. 

Jacksonville's pass offense has been surprisingly effective through the first couple weeks of the season. The Jaguars moved the ball at will against the Titans on Sunday. Gardner Minshew continues to exceed expectations week after week at the quarterback spot. He has a couple nice new weapons this year in Shenault and Eiffert. I think Jacksonville moves it through the air easily in this game.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good over quarterback. He can make the big play downfield, and he can also throw the pick sixes at any time. The Dolphins still have a bunch of speed on the outside, and the Jaguars secondary is a weakness. 

The offenses have had the edge in the early going in the NFL. Without the fan noise and with the rules set to help offenses as much as possible, I think many of these lower totaled games with two questionable defenses are good over looks.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox start Reynaldo Lopez here. Reynaldo Lopez has been extremely shaky this year (and last for that matter). He has poor control and can really work himself into trouble and big innings for the opposition. 

In Lopez's last 10 starts, only one game hasn't gotten to a total of 8 runs (and that one was 7 runs). Five of the ten games have gotten to at least 11 runs. 

Cal Quantrill is slated to start this bullpen game for the Indians, and he's up against a very good White Sox offense. The White Sox should create plenty of scoring chances here against an Indians bullpen that has been in poor form of late. 

This total is set too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Las Vegas Raiders open up their new stadium, but they'll do it without fans. This is still a huge game for the franchise. 

New Orleans is coming off a nice win over the Tampa Bay Bucs in week one. The Saints offense was actually a disappointment though. The Saints only averaged 4.1 yards per play. Michael Thomas is expected to miss this game as well, and he is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL. This limits Drew Brees even further. The Saints don't play quickly, and they don't look to throw it downfield. They are looking for short passes and methodically moving the football. 

The New Orleans defense is underrated. This is a very good unit. The secondary is excellent and very deep. The Raiders are unlikely to be testing the Saints downfield. I think it is far more likely that the Raiders look to run the football early and often here with Jacobs.

Derek Carr doesn't put up huge yardage through the air normally, and the Saints having a defensive coordinator who was previously Carr's coach is helpful to the defense as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers want to run the football early and often, especially with their injury issues right now. Deebo Samuel is out this week. George Kittle is banged up and is questionable here. Kittle might play, but he'll be less than 100 percent. 

The New York Jets really only do one thing well, and that is stop the run. The front seven has several good run stuffers. The Jets secondary is a weakness and the pass rush isn't very good, but the 49ers likely aren't the team to expose the pass defense weakness in their current form.

The Arizona Cardinals moved the ball quite a bit on the 49ers defense last week, but the Jets offense shows no resemblance of the Cardinals offense. The Jets running game is very weak, and Sam Darnold doesn't have enough weapons on the outside either. The 49ers elite pass rush should give Darnold quite a bit of trouble throughout this contest.

Look for this game to be played conservatively as the clock keeps ticking away.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys moved the ball just fine last week, but they didn't finish off drives. Atlanta put up a bunch of yards and quite a few points on Seattle last week, but their defense was torched by Seattle in the loss.

Sean Lee was already out for Dallas, and then the Cowboys best defender and key linebacker Leighton Vander Esch went down with an injury last week. They can't afford to be without him thanks to a thin LB group, but he's out with an injury and he'll be missed badly. 

Atlanta has arguably the top wide receiver tandem in the NFL. The Cowboys secondary is mediocre at best this year. Look for Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game to pick up big chunks here. 

Dallas is one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the Falcons have a bottom five defense in the league. The Cowboys have far too many weapons for Atlanta to slow them down in this one. Dak Prescott has all sorts of weapons around him, and I think they will get on track this week. Dallas' group of receivers is a top 3 group of WR's as well.

This one is played on the fast track in Dallas, and both quarterbacks should look great against the opposing secondary.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Indianapolis' game last week against the Jaguars was misleading. The Colts never punted all game long. They put up more than 400 yards of offense. They had a couple key turnovers and were stopped on 4th down twice. Still, the Colts averaged an impressive 6.4 yards per play.

The Minnesota Vikings defense has some major problems in the secondary. Aaron Rodgers was great last week, but those Packers receivers (who outside of Adams aren't all that good) were wide open throughout that game. Minnesota's defensive line is a major weakness without Danielle Hunter as well. The Colts offensive front is one of the best in the NFL, and they should give Phillip Rivers lots of time to throw here. They'll also open up plenty of holes for Taylor to run through.

The Vikings run game is very good, and the Colts defensive line is questionable. I think the Vikings will break some big gainers in the run game. Also, I think it is likely the Colts will playing from ahead here, and that will make Minnesota get more aggressive in the passing game. We saw what could happen in a spot like that last week. The Vikings and Packers combined to score a whopping 38 points in the 4th quarter alone.

This one is played indoors and that will help both Cousins and Rivers a lot here. Look for plenty of scoring.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres start Mike Clevinger here. Clevinger is coming off an outing where he pitched 7 innings and allowed no runs against the Giants. Clevinger now faces a below average Seattle Mariners offense in Petco Park, which is still a very good pitchers park. 

Clevinger is backed by a great Padres bullpen. They have the best FIP of any bullpen in the last month. This is a deep bullpen that has been throwing the ball extremely well.

Justus Sheffield gets the start for the Mariners. Sheffield is a talented lefty who struggles at times to find the strike zone, but he has electric stuff and has a good swinging strike rate. 

The Padres are a very good offense, but they have been far better against right handed pitching than lefties. Eric Hosmer is also out with an injury right now. 

Additionally, Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for this one. Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike in the last five years in Major League Baseball. He's a guy I want behind the plate if I'm betting an under.

The Padres have held their opponent to one run or less in five of their last ten games. The Mariners are averaging just 2 runs per game in their last four contests.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* I expect really big things from the Oklahoma State offense this year. The Cowboys were very good offensively last year, but I expect them to take the next step to being elite on offense this year as Spencer Sanders improves in his sophomore season at quarterback.

Oklahoma State has who I believe is the best running back in the country in Hubbard. Oklahoma State also has a top 3 or 4 group of wide receivers. The Cowboys want to play fast and they should be able to get plays in large bunches against a Tulsa defense that is going to be very weak this season. 

Tulsa's defense hasn't been very good in recent seasons, but they lost their top three defenders from last year's team. Tulsa's secondary is a mess, and Oklahoma State should be able to take advantage.

Tulsa's offense is improved this year. With Smith at quarterback, Phillip Montgomery can actually run the type of offense he's been wanting to run for the last few years. Their pace will be extremely quick.

No bad weather is in the area, and with the tempo this will be played at I expect a very high scoring game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees are absolutely on fire on offense right now. New York has scored 20 runs, 13 runs, and 10 runs in their last three games. The Yankees have only scored less than 6 runs twice in their last eight games.

Now the Yankees take on Martin Perez, who they have absolutely crushed. The Yankees lineup has a whopping .513 weighted on base average against Perez. Perez is a guy who walks too many batters and doesn't get enough swinging strikes. It's hard to see him having success here. 

Jordan Montgomery is a middle of the road lefty, and the Red Sox lineup still hits lefties well. Boston ranks in the top 8 offenses in the majors in the past two weeks overall.

The Yankees and Red Sox bullpens have both been bottom ten bullpens in the last 14 days. Even if the runs aren't there early on, there should be scoring chances later in the game.

Take the over.