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Kyle Hunter ALL Sports Totals Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
07-02-12 Colorado Rockies v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9 3-9 Win 100 19 h 22 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Josh Outman starts in this one for the Rockies. Outman has an ERA well above 9 this season. St. Louis bats .271 against left-handed pitchers, and I expect them to get to Outman early in this matchup. Not only is Outman a poor starting pitcher right now, but he also doesn't go deep in the game at all. The Rockies bullpen is one of the worst in all of baseball. Colorado was shut out yesterday, but this is a team that generally scores quite a few runs, especially against left-handed pitchers. Kyle Lohse has been great this year, but he has struggled a bit in his last few starts. The over is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5. The over is 4-0 in Outman's last 4 starts. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 games with a total set at 9-10.5 runs. Take the over.
07-02-12 Kansas City: E Teaford v. Toronto: R Romero OVER 9.5 11-3 Win 100 18 h 3 m Show
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Total Error* Ricky Romero was terrific last season, but he hasn't been himself this year. Romero has a 4.94 ERA in 2012. Fortunately for him, the Blue Jays have been piling up runs when he is on the mound. He has managed to go 8-2 despite his poor ERA. Everett Teaford has only pitched 60 innings in his big league career, and most of those have been out of the bullpen. Both teams hit left handers pretty well. The over is 6-0 in Romero's last 6 home starts. The over is 4-0 in the Blue Jays last 4 games. I believe the oddsmakers have given us a solid value in this one. Take the over.
06-27-12 Los Angeles: Billingsly v. San Francisco: T Lincecum OVER 7 0-3 Loss -106 15 h 1 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Tim Lincecum has been an 'over' machine this year. The over is 8-2 in his last 10 starts. The oddsmakers continue to throw out low lines on his games despite the fact that he has an ERA above 6 this season. Chad Billingsley has an ERA above 5 in his last 3 starts. This ballpark is definitely a pitcher's park, but the ball does fly pretty well in day games. The over is 6-0 in Billingsley's last 6 starts following a loss by the team the night before. The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 as a home favorite. The over is 7-0 in the Giants last 7 when facing a starter with a WHIP over 1.3. Take the over.
06-27-12 Oakland A's v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 7 2-1 Win 100 15 h 55 m Show
*3 Star MLB TKO* Jarrod Parker is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Parker has completely shut down several teams already this year. The Seattle offense is one of the weakest in the American League, and I suspect Parker will pitch well against them. Kevin Millwood has been a bit inconsistent this year, but he has fared well against poor offenses. Oakland's team batting average is just 2.24 which is the worst mark in the majors. Two solid pitchers against two poor offenses makes me like the value of the under. Take the under.
06-26-12 Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Francisco Giants UNDER 6 Top 0-2 Win 100 20 h 17 m Show
*5 Star MLB Top Play Total* It's very rare for me to play a total this low, but I like this one so much I made it a rare 5 Star Top Play. Ryan Vogelsong has been money in the bank for 'under' bettors over the last couple years. The under is 29-10 in his last 39 starts. Clayton Kershaw has absolutely shut down the Giants in his young career. Both offenses struggle to score, and this has all the makings of a very low scoring game. The under is 20-3 in Vogelsong's last 23 home games. The under is 10-1 in Kershaw's last 11 Tuesday starts. The under is 4-0 in Kershaw's last 4 against the Giants. Take the under big.
06-26-12 LA Anaheim: C Wilson v. Baltimore: B Matusz UNDER 8.5 7-3 Loss -105 17 h 55 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* C.J. Wilson has been terrific this year for the Angels. His consistency on the mound has really helped this team make the push they have over the last month or so. Wilson has a great 2.13 ERA on the road this season. Brian Matusz is a talented lefty for the Orioles who doesn't quite have it all together just yet. He has all the pitches, but he sometimes struggles with command. The under is still 11-1 in his last 12 starts. The under is 5-0 in Wilson's last 5 road starts. Take the under.
06-24-12 New York Yankees v. New York Mets UNDER 7 6-5 Loss -125 19 h 28 m Show
*3 Star Sunday Night Total Domination* R.A. Dickey has five straight outings where he hasn't allowed an earned run. It's pretty amazing how awesome of a run he is on right now. Dickey has thrown back-to-back one hitters. C.C. Sabathia has been his normal consistent self. Sabathia is 9-3 with a solid 3.55 ERA. The Mets don't hit left-handers well. Brian Runge is one of the best under umpires in the business. Runge's large strike zone should help this one a lot. The under is 9-1 in Dickey's last 10 home starts. The under is 4-0 in the Mets last 4 Sunday games. Take the under.
06-24-12 Chicago (N): M Garza v. Arizona: W Miley UNDER 8.5 1-5 Win 100 16 h 35 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Chicago Cubs offense hasn't been good at all this year. Both of these teams busted out with a big offensive game last night, but I think this pitching matchup will lead to a lower scoring game here. Matt Garza has had pretty good success in the past against Arizona. Wade Miley has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball this year. Miley is 8-3 with a 2.30 ERA so far this season. The under is 5-0 in the DBacks last 5 Sunday games. Look for a low scoring game. Take the under.
06-23-12 New York Yankees v. New York Mets OVER 8.5 4-3 Loss -120 18 h 29 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The New York Yankees offense is one of the best in baseball. It isn't very often that you'll see a Yankees game with a total below 9 unless there is at least one ace on the mound. Ivan Nova and Chris Young are both very inconsistent pitchers. Nova has pitched well of late, but he gives up too many fly balls to be great all the time. Tim McClelland is one of the best 'over' umpires in baseball. He'll pinch the zone on both of these guys, and I think this total is set too low. Take the over here.
06-23-12 Atlanta Braves v. Boston Red Sox UNDER 11 4-8 Loss -120 18 h 29 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Doug Eddings is my single favorite 'under' umpire. Eddings has a huge strike zone, and every year he has more 'under' games than over. A total this high is extremely rare, and with Eddings behind the dish I see plenty of value. Delgado is a pitcher who walks a lot of people, but Eddings should help him. Morales doesn't normally start, but he is a capable pitcher. The under is 8-1-1 in Delgado's last 10 starts. The under is 4-0 in Delgado's last 4 interleague starts. The under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
06-21-12 Colorado: J Francis v. Philadelphia: V Worley OVER 9.5 4-1 Loss -105 18 h 59 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jeff Francis starts this game for the Colorado Rockies. Francis didn't even have a job at the beginning of the year since no major league team wanted him, but the Rockies picked him up after the team badly needed some starting pitching. Francis has had an ERA around 5 for three straight years before this one. So far this year he has allowed 12 runs in two starts. The Phillies offense is better than most believe. Vance Worley is a solid pitcher, but the Rockies can pile up the runs. The weather should be great for scoring here with a 90 degree temperature and wind out to center. The over is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 home games. The over is 13-3 in Francis' last 16 starts. The over is 6-1 in Worley's last 7 starts. Take the over.
06-20-12 San Francisco Giants v. Los Angeles Angels UNDER 7 0-6 Win 100 20 h 6 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jered Weaver will start this game after missing several starts with a lower back strain. Weaver has been virtually unhittable at home this year. In nearly 33 innings, Weaver has an amazing 0.83 ERA at home. Ryan Vogelsong has been underrated by the oddsmakers for a long time. The under is 28-10 in Vogelsong's last 38 starts overall. Vogelsong has 9 straight quality starts. The under is 21-7-1 in Weaver's last 29 starts against a team with a winning record. Look for both pitchers to pitch very well. Take the under.
06-20-12 Chicago Cubs v. Chicago White Sox UNDER 10 0-7 Win 100 19 h 13 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Bill Miller is the umpire behind home plate in this one. Miller is one of my favorite under umpires. Getting a number this high with Miller behind home plate is too much for me to pass up. The Cubs offense hasn't been good this season. Gavin Floyd has pitched poorly of late, but he has fared well against the Cubs in his career. Without any extremely warm temperatures or wind blowing out, I don't see why this total should be 10 in this game. I like the value on the under.
06-20-12 Atlanta Braves v. New York Yankees UNDER 9 10-5 Loss -100 11 h 9 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Tommy Hanson and Phil Hughes are both pitching their best right now. Hanson has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. Hughes started the season horribly, but he has a 1.69 ERA in his last 3 starts. The Braves offense has been in a major slump as of late. This day game after a night game will likely lead to some stars getting the day off. The under is 6-0 in the Braves last 6. The under is 4-0 in Hughes' last 4 starts. The under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
06-19-12 Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians OVER 9.5 2-3 Loss -120 16 h 60 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Cincinnati Reds and Cleveland Indians played to a 10-9 final last night. I had the over in that one, and I think the over is the play again in this one. Both bullpens are completely spent right now, and I'm not very impressed with either of these starters. The exact same pitching matchup last week ended in a 12-5 Reds win. The Reds offense is on fire right now, and the Indians are very tough at home. Both pitchers are capable of giving up the big inning. The weather should help with hot temps and winds blowing out. The over is 5-1 in the Indians last 6 home games. Take the over.
06-19-12 Atlanta Braves v. New York Yankees UNDER 8.5 4-3 Win 110 17 h 31 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Atlanta Braves offense has been hibernating of late. Atlanta has scored a total of two runs in their last three games. Hiroki Kuroda had a solid 3.43 ERA this year. Tim Hudson has allowed just 2 earned runs in his past 28 innings pitched. These two pitchers met last week and the final was 3-2. Neither of these pitchers give up many long balls. The under is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 games. The under is 5-1 in Kuroda's last 6 starts. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
06-18-12 Seattle Mariners v. Arizona Diamondbacks UNDER 9 1-7 Win 102 21 h 57 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Seattle Mariners lineup is one of the worst in baseball. The Mariners hit just .234 and average 3.69 runs per game against left-handed pitching. Wade Miley has been one of the most surprising pitchers in all of baseball this year. Miley has a spectacular 2.39 ERA. He has a dazzling 0.57 ERA in his last three starts. Hector Noesi has been hit hard this year, but Arizona's offense hasn't been firing on all cylinders of late. The roof should be closed here, which makes Chase Field a pretty average stadium as far as runs per game. The under is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams. I think this total is set too high. Take the under here.
06-18-12 Cincinnati Reds v. Cleveland Indians OVER 8.5 9-10 Win 100 19 h 43 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Mat Latos hasn't been nearly as good as the Reds would have hoped so far in 2012. Latos has allowed 78 hits in 75 and 2/3 innings. He has a mediocre ERA of 4.64 this year. He gives up far too many long balls, and the weather conditions will be suitable for home runs Monday night. Derek Lowe started the year with an impressive run, but he has regressed in his last few starts. Lowe allows far too many base runners to be highly successful in the long run. He has a ridiculously high 1.53 WHIP. The Reds offense has been much better over the last month. Joey Votto is on fire and Brandon Phillips has been consistently great. The over is 4-1 in the Indians last 5 home games. The over is 4-1 in Latos' last 5 games as a favorite. Take the over.
06-17-12 Kansas City Royals v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 8.5 5-3 Loss -105 13 h 7 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Adam Wainwright was a terrific pitcher a few years ago and they still may become great again, but he is struggling this year. Wainwright has an ERA above 5 at home this season. Luis Mendoza has a 4.89 ERA this season. He has struggled against the best offenses he has faced. The Cardinals are the highest scoring team in the National League. The weather should help here with 90 degree temperatures and wind blowing out to center field. The over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Take the over.
06-17-12 Milwaukee Brewers v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8.5 4-5 Win 100 13 h 2 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Zack Greinke has been brilliant at home this year, but he hasn't pitched very well on the road. In fact, Greinke has an ERA slightly above 5 on the road in 2012. The Twins offense has been much better of late thanks to a healthy line up and big production from Trevor Plouffe. Nick Blackburn has an ERA far above 7 in 2012. Blackburn simply doesn't have good enough stuff to put away very many batters right now. The over is 10-1-2 in Greinke's last 13 as a road favorite. The over is 7-0-2 in the Twins last 9 interleague games as an underdog. Take the over.
06-17-12 Philadelphia Phillies v. Toronto Blue Jays OVER 9.5 2-6 Loss -110 12 h 47 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Philadelphia Phillies offense is slightly better than most people realize this year. They actually rank in the top ten in the majors in team batting average. Brett Cecil was terrible in Spring Training, and I'm not convinced he's figured out all his issues. Kyle Kendrick has been an 'over' machine in his career, especially on the road. The over is is 7-1 in Kendrick's last 8 starts as a road underdog. The over is 23-5 in the Phillies last 28 road games. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two. Take the over.
06-16-12 San Francisco Giants v. Seattle Mariners OVER 7 4-7 Win 100 22 h 55 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Kevin Millwood left his last start with a groin injury. He's expected to pitch in this one, but I don't think he'll be 100%. Tim Lincecum hasn't just been worse this year, he has been terrible. Lincecum has a ridiculous 7.98 road ERA. The Seattle lineup isn't good, but they have been hitting better of late. San Francisco has a better lineup this year with a healthy Posey and a Melky Cabrera crushing the ball in the middle of the order. The over is 6-0 in the Giants last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 8-1 in the Giants last 9 road games. The over is 4-1 in Seattle's last 5 games. Take the over.
06-16-12 Pittsburgh Pirates v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 8 9-2 Loss -110 15 h 39 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* A.J. Burnett had one horrible start earlier this year, but he has been great in the rest of his outings. Ubaldo Jimenez has a solid 3.38 ERA at home. The Pirates only average 3.27 runs per game against right handed pitching. I think Pittsburgh is the type of team that Jimenez can shut down at home. Both of these pitchers are better than the oddsmakers value them right now. The under is 5-1 in Burnett's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. Take the under.
06-15-12 Cincinnati: B Arroyo v. New York (N): D Gee OVER 8 7-3 Win 100 18 h 56 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Cincinnati Reds offense started the season in a funk, but they are hitting the ball in a big way right now. Joey Votto is hitting the ball better than anyone in baseball right now. Brandon Phillips is healthy and swinging the bat extremely well. Dillon Gee has an ERA near 5 at home, and I think the Reds can get to him. Bronson Arroyo started the year well, but he has struggled of late. The over is 7-0-1 in Gee's last 8 home starts. The over is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
06-15-12 Colorado Rockies v. Detroit Tigers OVER 9.5 12-4 Win 100 17 h 5 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Colorado Rockies have proven they can hit even away from Coors Field, but they can't pitch well anywhere. Jeff Francis didn't make a major league roster coming out of camp this year, and he looked terrible in his first start. The Tigers offense hasn't been as good as expected, but I think they can hit Francis hard. Casey Crosby wasn't dominant in AAA, and he has had serious issues locating the strike zone in the majors. The over is 5-0 in Francis' last 5 starts. The over is 8-2 in the Rockies last 10 road games. The over is 6-2 in the Tigers last 8. Take the over.
06-14-12 Chicago White Sox v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9 3-5 Loss -100 18 h 19 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Here we get two pitchers who are struggling with their command pretty badly. Gavin Floyd has a 7.88 ERA in his last 3 starts. Jake Westbrook has a 7.31 ERA in his last three starts. The White Sox average 5.05 runs per game against right-handed pitching. The Cardinals average 5.15 runs per game against right-handers. Both offenses struggled last night, but I think this is a completely different setup. Tim Tschida is one of the best 'over' umpires in the league because of his tiny strike zone, and that will help. The over is 5-0 in Floyd's last 5 starts. The over is 7-1 in Westbrook's last 8 starts. Take the over.
06-14-12 Oakland A's v. Colorado Rockies OVER 10.5 8-2 Loss -105 13 h 49 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Oakland Athletics don't have much of an offense normally, but they are loving Coors Field. The conditions are great for an 'over' in the afternoon at Coors Field. Alex White and Jarrod Parker are both pitchers who could have a solid future in the league, but I expect them to struggle in this one. Parker gives up too many free passes, while White gives up the long ball too often. The over is 5-1 in Oakland's last 6 games. The over is 7-0-1 in Colorado's last 8 home games against teams with a losing record. Take the over.
06-14-12 New York Mets v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 9-6 Loss -114 11 h 49 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays offense is struggling mightily right now. Tampa Bay hits just .222 against lefties, and they can't be very thrilled to see Johan Santana here. Santana had an off outing against the Yankees last time, but I expect a bounce back start here. Jeremy Hellickson is awesome at home. He has a 1.59 ERA at home this year. On get away day, the lineups may be slightly weaker than normal. The under is 7-0-2 in Hellickson's last 9 starts. The under is 19-3-2 in his last 24 home starts. Take the under here.
06-13-12 Milwaukee Brewers v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 3-4 Loss -100 19 h 16 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Luke Hochevar has been downright terrible at home this year. Hochevar has a 10.23 ERA at home in 2012. He has a 6.57 ERA overall this season. Randy Wolf has a 5.45 ERA, and he allows far too many hits and walks to be counted on. Wolf pitches into jams and I think Kansas City can make him pay. The over is 15-4-2 in Hochevar's last 21 starts following a game where he gave up 2 earned runs or less. He is the epitome of inconsistent. Both offenses are better than they have shown, and we have a nice over umpire here as well. Take the over.
06-12-12 Miami Heat v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 196 94-105 Loss -110 18 h 27 m Show
*3 Star NBA Finals Total Domination* The Miami Heat get a lot of press for their offensive prowess, but Miami is very capable of playing great defense. Miami has to realize that they don't want to make this a track meet with the Thunder. Miami should use some clock and try to rely on their half court defense to win the game. Oklahoma City is a much better defensive team than most people realize as well with Ibaka and Perkins down low. Both regular season meetings stayed under this total. The first game of the NBA Finals should bring some jitters. Take the under.
06-12-12 Philadelphia Phillies v. Minnesota Twins OVER 9 Top 7-11 Win 100 18 h 43 m Show
*5 Star MLB Top Play Total* Kyle Kendrick and Nick Blackburn are two pitchers I look to fade. They match up against each other here, and I really like the value on the over. Kendrick is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball. He had been on a good streak for a while, but last game he struggled quite a bit. Minnesota is hitting the ball surprisingly well right now. The Twins have scored 6 or more runs in 5 of their last 8 games. Nick Blackburn has an ERA of 7.75 this year. The Phillies lineup hasn't been nearly as bad as most people believe. Philadelphia has the fourth best batting average in baseball, and they should get to Blackburn. The over is 8-0 in the Phillies last 8 as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The over is 19-3 in Kendrick's last 22 road starts against a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in the Twins last 6 Interleague home games. Take the over big!
06-09-12 Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat UNDER 178.5 88-101 Loss -104 42 h 29 m Show
*3 Star Game 7 Total Domination* Miami dominated the Celtics in game 6, but I expect Boston to show some heart in this one. The Celtics are a very good defensive team. Miami is also capable of clamping down on the defensive end. In the NBA playoffs, history shows us that the later in the series we get, the lower scoring the games become. I don't expect that LeBron James to be able to replicate his game 6 performance. Since the 2003-2004 season, elimination games in game 6 or game 7 have gone under the total to the tune of 36-13. Take the under.
06-09-12 Los Angeles Dodgers v. Seattle Mariners UNDER 6.5 8-3 Loss -114 17 h 1 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* I'm not a fan at all of taking an 'under' this low, but this still looks like a good value to me. Clayton Kershaw has been a bit "off" of his game so far this year, and his ERA is still a sparkling 2.55. Seattle's lineup isn't good at all, and I could easily see the Mariners only putting up a run or two. Jason Vargas has been terrific at home the last couple years. He has a 1.91 ERA at home so far this year. The Dodgers were no hit last night by the Mariners, and the Dodgers lineup simply isn't very good without Kemp in the middle of the order. The under is 7-0 in Vargas' last 7 home starts. Look for a very low scoring game. Take the under.
06-09-12 Los Angeles Angels v. Colorado Rockies OVER 9.5 11-5 Win 100 14 h 51 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* There isn't a better hitters ballpark than Coors Field in Colorado. The weather conditions in this one should make it even easier on the hitters. The temperature is expected to be about 90 degrees with wind blowing out to center field at 12 miles per hour. Colorado really piles up the runs at home. Jeff Francis hasn't pitched in the Major Leagues this year. Francis had an ERA around 5 in his last few years in Colorado. I see no reason to believe he'll be any better now. The over is 7-0 in Francis' last 7 home starts. Over is 9-2-1 in the Rockies' last 12 against a right-handed pitcher. Take the over.
06-08-12 Cleveland Indians v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9 6-2 Loss -100 18 h 27 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Jake Westbrook started the season pitching brilliantly, but it has been all downhill of late. He has an ERA over 10 in his last three starts. Josh Tomlin is a mediocre pitcher with an ERA slightly above 5. The Cardinals have the best lineup in the National League, and I expect them to put up several runs here. The warm weather in St. Louis should help the ball fly further. The over is 10-2 in the Indians last 12 games. The over is 20-6 in the Cardinals last 26 home games. Take the over.
06-08-12 Detroit Tigers v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 9 5-6 Win 100 16 h 27 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Mat Latos was supposed to be a great pitcher for the Reds, but he is giving up far too many homerun balls. Latos has already allowed 10 homers at Great American Ballpark in 2012. The weather is expected to be warm for this one so the ball should travel well. Rick Porcello has been inconsistent all year, and he gives up quite a few long balls as well. Both offenses are capable of putting up a big number here. The over is 6-0-1 in the Reds last 7 home games. The over is 4-0 in Porcello's last 4 interleague starts. The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 road games. Take the over.
06-08-12 Philadelphia Phillies v. Baltimore Orioles OVER 9 9-6 Win 100 17 h 8 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Baltimore Orioles took two of three from the Boston Red Sox at Fenway. The Phillies have lost six straight and they send Joe Blanton to the mound in this one. Blanton has allowed 25 runs in his last 4 starts. He has an ERA of about 5 in each of his last 3 seasons. The Orioles offense has been good all year, and I expect them to take advantage of Blanton's mistakes. The over is 19-7 in the Phillies last 26 road games. The over is 5-0 in Blanton's last 5 interleague starts. Take the over.
06-07-12 Miami Heat v. Boston Celtics UNDER 179 98-79 Win 100 19 h 15 m Show
*3 Star Heat/Celtics Total Domination* It's game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals. Boston wasn't expected to be in this position but the Celtics have a chance to close it out here. Over the past few years, a significant trend has stood out. Elimination games tend to be very low scoring because players are tight and the offense is more deliberate. I think this game will fit right into that theory. Miami must play better defense if they hope to force a game 7. Boston isn't a team that can push the pace consistently. Take the under.
06-07-12 Toronto: H Alvarez v. Chicago (A): J Peavy OVER 8.5 3-4 Loss -100 20 h 36 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Toronto Blue Jays have taken the first two games of this series. Jake Peavy has been good this year, but he is looking a little shaky of late. Peavy has been hit hard in two of his last four starts. Toronto's offense is pretty strong. Henderson Alvarez has an ERA over 6 in his last three starts. Jim Reynolds is one of the best 'over' umpires in the business. The over is 12-3 in his last 15 games behind the plate. The over is 6-0-1 in Peavy's last 7 as a home favorite. The over is 6-1-1 in Toronto's last 8 road games. Take the over.
06-07-12 Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees UNDER 8 7-3 Loss -108 18 h 4 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Tampa Bay's offense is very short-handed right now. Without Evan Longoria in the line up, the Rays can't hit left-handers much at all. C.C. Sabathia is one of the best left-handers in baseball. He seems to be getting stronger each start this year. Likewise, David Price has improved as the season has moved along. Price has been virtually unhittable of late. The under is 5-0 in Tampa Bay's last 5 games against a left-handed pitcher. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Take the under.
06-07-12 Chicago Cubs v. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 7.5 3-4 Loss -103 13 h 22 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cubs and Brewers have taken turns humiliating each other in the first 2 games of this series. Matt Garza has been much worse over the last few starts. Randy Wolf is becoming more hittable every year. He simply doesn't have the stuff to get good hitters out anymore. Paul Schrieber has the smallest strike zone of any umpire in Major League Baseball. The over is 7-1 in Schrieber's last 8 games behind home plate. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The over is 4-0 in the Brewer's lats 4 against a right-handed pitcher. Take the over.
06-06-12 Texas: C Lewis v. Oakland: B Colon OVER 7.5 0-2 Loss -110 20 h 18 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Colby Lewis has struggled against the Athletics in his career. Jemile Weeks is hitting better than .500 off Lewis, and he sets the table for this Oakland offense. Bartolo Colon started the season well, but he has been very shaky of late. Scott Barry is a solid over umpire who has a tight strike zone. The over is 7-1 in Lewis' last 8 starts against the Athletics. The over is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings at Oakland. This number is set very low, especially when you consider the Rangers have the best offense in baseball. Take the over.
06-06-12 Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 1-6 Loss -104 20 h 55 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Tim McClelland is my favorite 'over' umpire. He pinches the strike zone in a big way. Both of these pitches really try to work the corners, and I don't think they'll like his strike zone. Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open. The Diamondbacks put up 10 runs last night. Both teams hit left-handers very well. Look for the ball to be flying out of the park in this one. The over is 9-1 in the Rockies last 10 road games. The over is 5-0 in Miley's last 5 home starts against a team with a losing record. Take the over.
06-04-12 Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 4-0 Loss -120 20 h 43 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The Colorado Rockies have been scoring runs in bunches of late. They have scored 7 runs or more in 5 of their last 7 games. Arizona's Chase Field is one of the very best hitters ballparks in baseball when the roof is open. The heat and low humidity really make the ball fly extremely well. Chase Field's roof is scheduled to be open here. Joe Saunders struggles in a big way when the roof is open, and he gives up lots of long balls. In his last 3 starts with the roof open he has allowed 4,6, and 7 runs. The Diamondbacks hit lefties well and Christian Friedrich has struggled of late after starting out well this season. The over is 7-0 in the Rockies last 7 road games. The over is 5-1 in Saunders' last 6 starts. Take the over.
06-04-12 Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 202 108-103 Loss -105 7 h 30 m Show
*3 Star Thunder/Spurs Total Domination* It's a pivotal Game Five tonight in San Antonio. The Western Conference finals are definitely living up to expectations. Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins combined to miss only two shots from the floor last game and score 41 points (they average 14 points combined per game). The Spurs are unlikely to allow the Thunder to shoot 56.4% again like they did in Game Four. Also, San Antonio shot 50% and made 11 three-point shots in their 109-103 loss last time out. As the series grows more intense and the stakes get even higher, I suspect the defense will improve. The under is 7-2 in the Spurs last 9 Conference Finals games. Take the under.
06-03-12 Minnesota: S Diamond v. Cleveland: J Mastersn UNDER 9 6-3 Push 0 14 h 41 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Justin Masterson started the season slowly, but he has been improving gradually the last few times out. Minnesota's offense isn't very good, and I wouldn't be surprised to see some guys sit this one out on a Sunday afternoon game. The Indians struggle badly against lefties. Carlos Santana, Travis Hafner, and Johnny Damon are all out of the Cleveland lineup. The wind is expected to be howling in at 15 to 20 mph. The under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 games following a win. I like the value on the under.
06-03-12 Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7.5 6-5 Loss -105 13 h 56 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers will be without Ryan Braun in this one and Aramis Ramirez is liable to miss the game as well. Rickie Weeks isn't hitting at all and the Brewers offense isn't lethal at all without Braun in the middle. James McDonald hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a game all season. The Pirates average just 2.89 runs per game against righties. Michael Fiers is making just his second start in this one, but I think he can fare well against this Pirates lineup. Phil Cuzzi is a solid under umpire. The under is 5-0-1 in McDonald's last 6 starts against the NL Central. The under is 5-0-2 in his last 7 starts against teams with a losing record. Take the under.
06-02-12 Los Angeles Dodgers v. Colorado Rockies OVER 10.5 6-2 Loss -100 15 h 48 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Colorado Rockies are absolutely crushing the baseball right now. Colorado has scored 13, 11, and 13 runs in their last three games. In fact, the Rockies have scored 6 or more runs in 8 of their last 10 games. Aaron Harang is a fly ball pitcher and that is bad news for him at Coors. He has a 6.5 ERA in his career at Coors Field. Juan Nicasio has a 7.04 ERA at home this year. The Dodgers continue to outperform expectations offensively. The over is 6-0-1 in the Rockies last 7 as a home favorite. The over is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 10 as an underdog. The over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between these two at Colorado. The over is 20-5-2 in the Rockies last 27 Saturday games. A 40-7 angle backs this play. Take the over.
06-02-12 Baltimore Orioles v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 8 2-1 Win 100 14 h 45 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Orioles offense took a major hit when Nick Markakis went down with an injury. Without Markakis, Adam Jones doesn't have much support in the middle of the order. Matt Wieters is slumping terribly right now. Jeremy Hellickson has been amazing, especially at home. Hellickson is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. He has an ERA below 2 at home in his career. Brian Matusz has pretty good stuff, and the Rays offense is averaging less than 3 runs per game over the last 6 games. The under is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 against a righty. The under is 4-0 in Matusz's last 4 games. The under is 18-3-2 in Hellickson's last 21 home starts. The under is 5-0-2 in Hellickson's last 7 overall. The under is 20-5-2 in the last 27 meetings in Tampa Bay between these two teams. A huge 51-8 angle backs this play. Take the under.
06-01-12 Texas Rangers v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8.5 2-4 Loss -107 21 h 23 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Texas Rangers have the best offense in all of baseball. Texas has scored 8 runs or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The Rangers average 6 runs per game against right-handed pitching. Jerome Williams has had a nice year, but he doesn't have dominating stuff. Colby Lewis strikes out a lot of people, but he also gives up a lot of long balls. Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo, and Albert Pujols are really hitting the ball well now for the Angels. The Angels have scored 5 runs or more in 4 of their last 6 games. The over is 6-1 in Texas' last 7 games. The over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
05-31-12 Houston Astros v. Colorado Rockies OVER 9.5 5-11 Win 100 18 h 27 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* 14 of the last 18 games played at Coors Field have gone over this posted total. Bud Norris has had a nice season, but he isn't nearly as good on the road. Norris has a 5.40 ERA on the road, and he wasn't sharp at all in Los Angeles last time out. Jeremy Guthrie has a miserable 9.92 ERA in his home starts this year. Guthrie is clearly struggling with the conditions at Coors Field. There are some amazing trends on this game. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. The over is 6-0 in Norris' last 6 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 7-0-1 in the Rockies last 8 games when allowing 5 or more runs in the previous game. Also, the over is 4-0-1 in the Rockies last 5 as a home favorite. A 24-0 angle backs this one. Take the over.
05-30-12 Baltimore: J Hammel v. Toronto: B Morrow OVER 8.5 1-4 Loss -100 17 h 43 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Jason Hammel has pitched pretty well this year, but I'm not at all convinced that he is a good pitcher. Hammel has been wildly inconsistent in the past, and I think he is due to get hit around. The Blue Jays offense is one of the best in baseball. Baltimore's offense is very formidable as well. Brandon Morrow has pitched much worse at home over the last couple years. Morrow only lasted 2/3 of an inning in his last start. This total is set too low. The over is 4-0 in Hammel's last 4 starts. The over is 6-1-1 in the Blue Jays last 8 games. Take the over.
05-30-12 Kansas City: B Chen v. Cleveland: J Gomez UNDER 8.5 6-3 Loss -108 11 h 38 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians have struggled all year against left-handed pitching. Cleveland is hitting just .209 against lefties in 2012. Right now the Indians are without Asdrubal Cabrera, Travis Hafner, and Carlos Santana. Those are their #3, #4, and #5 hitters. Kansas City's offense has been disappointing this year. Jeanmar Gomez isn't a great pitcher, but he is underrated and he has pitched well at home. The under is 14-2 in Dan Bellino's (home plate umpire) last 16 games overall. Take the under.
05-29-12 Philadelphia Phillies v. New York Mets OVER 8.5 3-6 Win 100 17 h 57 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Philadelphia Phillies offense hasn't been that great this year, but the public perception that the Phillies have a terrible offense isn't true. The Phillies average 4.16 runs per game, and they average 4.70 runs per game against righties, which is in the top 10 in the majors. The Mets average 4.24 runs per game. Joe Blanton has been an 'over' machine on the road over the past couple years. Jeremy Hefner was lit up by the Padres in his last start, and the Padres are the worst offense in the NL. Some huge winning angles back this one. The over is 15-3 in the Phillies last 18 road games. The over is 7-0 in the Mets last 7 against the NL East. The over is 7-0 in the Phillies last 7 as a road favorite. It is 7-0 in the Phillies last 7 road games vs. a right-handed pitcher. The over is 20-4-2 in the last 26 meetings between these teams. A combined 56-7 winning angle backs this one. Take the over.
05-28-12 Chicago White Sox v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 2-1 Win 100 13 h 30 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Chris Sale and Matt Moore are both two very talented left-handed pitchers. The White Sox have struggled all year against lefties. Tampa Bay's offense simply isn't very good without Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings. Carlos Pena and Ben Zobrist are in horrible slumps. The under is an amazing 82-38-8 in the Rays last 128 home games. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Look for both starters to have the upper hand in this one. Take the under.
05-27-12 San Diego Padres v. New York Mets OVER 7 0-2 Loss -115 11 h 39 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Tim Tschida is one of the best 'over' umpires in the business. Tschida has a tiny strike zone, and I expect that to hurt both of these pitchers in a big way Sunday. Edinson Volquez has struggled with walks in his entire career, and this year has been no different. Tschida won't give him the borderline pitches. R.A. Dickey is a knuckle baller who would be hurt far more than the average pitcher by a small strike zone. Dickey has an ERA above 5 during day games in his career. The over is 3-0-1 in the Padres last 4. The over is 5-0-1 in the Mets last 6 home games. The over is 4-0 in Tschida's last 4 Sunday games behind the plate. Take the over.
05-26-12 Philadelphia Phillies v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 9 4-0 Loss -100 18 h 6 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The heat is here across the country and that generally means higher scoring games. The expected game time temperature here is 95 degrees, and the wind is forecasted to be blowing out at 10 mph. Kyle Kendrick is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in the majors, and he gives up a lot of long balls. St. Louis has scored more runs than any other NL team. The Cardinals are very capable of getting the 9 runs by themselves here. Jaime Garcia has been good at home, but he hasn't been dominant this year. Sam Holbrook is the best over umpire in the business. The over is 6-0 in Kendrick's last 6 starts as a road underdog. The over is 18-4 in the Cardinals last 22 as a favorite. The over is 13-3 in the Phillies last 16 road games. Take the over.
05-26-12 Toronto: H Alvarez v. Texas: C Lewis OVER 9.5 7-8 Win 100 13 h 12 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Texas Rangers have the best offense in all of baseball. Alvarez is a decent young pitcher for Toronto, but this is a very tough spot for him. In an afternoon game in Arlington, the ball should fly very well on this hot day. Colby Lewis struggles at home, and the Blue Jays have an offense capable of taking advantage. Lewis has an ERA of over 6 with home plate umpire Marty Foster in his career. The over is 7-0 in the Rangers last 7 against the AL East. The over is 4-0-1 in the Blue Jays' last 5. Take the over.
05-26-12 Detroit Tigers v. Minnesota Twins OVER 8.5 6-3 Win 100 14 h 36 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Max Scherzer has been awful this season. He also has a career ERA 6.45 in 6 starts against the Minnesota Twins. Carl Pavano has a 4.91 ERA on the season. The Twins have been hitting the ball much better as of late. Justin Morneau is healthy and hitting the ball well. The Tigers' offense hasn't been what it should be yet, but I expect them to put up several runs against Pavano. With two hot offenses and two poor pitchers, I think it is very possible that we see at least ten runs scored here. Take the over.
05-25-12 LA Anaheim: E Santana v. Seattle: B Beavan UNDER 7.5 6-4 Loss -126 22 h 48 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Los Angeles Angels have been the most disappointing team in the majors. The offense is averaging just 3.59 runs per game. Safeco is certainly a pitchers park. Ervin Santana has been burning money this year, but it isn't because he has been bad. In fact, he has been great in his last five starts. Five straight quality starts from Santana. He has a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts. The Seattle lineup is one of the worst in baseball. The under is 8-0-1 in Santana's last 9 starts as a road favorite. The under is 4-0-1 in Santana's last 5 starts against the Mariners. Take the under.
05-25-12 Kansas City: B Chen v. Baltimore: J Hammel OVER 8.5 2-8 Win 100 18 h 43 m Show
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error Total* Bruce Chen and Jason Hammel have both pitched a little better than most expected, but I still don't consider them high quality pitchers. Both Kansas City and Baltimore are pretty good hitting teams, and I was surprised to see a total this low. The Orioles are averaging 5.04 runs per game against lefties. The Royals average 4.22 runs per game this season. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph. Everything here adds up to value on the over. Take the over.
05-24-12 Philadelphia Phillies v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 7.5 10-9 Win 100 18 h 54 m Show
*3 Star MLB Play of the Day* The St. Louis Cardinals have scored more runs than any other team in the National League. They also have the second best team batting average in the majors. Rafael Furcal and Carlos Beltran are having massive bounce back years for the Cardinals. The Phillies offense isn't good, but they are improving slowly. Many of the current Phillies players have great numbers against Jake Westbrook in their career. Joe Blanton is very inconsistent, and I don't think the line should be this low with two mediocre pitchers. The over is 6-0 in Westbrook's last 6 home starts. The over is 5-0 in the Phillies last 5 road games. Take the over.
05-23-12 Los Angeles: T Lilly v. Arizona: J Saunders OVER 9 4-11 Win 100 19 h 23 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a completely different park when the roof is open, especially when it is very hot. The expected temperature at gametime is 100 degrees and the roof is scheduled to be open. The ball travels very well with the heat and low humidity. Ted Lilly gives up too many fly balls for this to be a good situation for him. Joe Saunders has pitched twice with the roof open in the past two weeks and has given up 6 and 7 earned runs respectively. The over is 4-0 in Saunders last 4 starts. The over is 4-0 in Lilly's last 4 starts. The over is 5-1 in Saunders last 6 starts against the Dodgers. Take the over.
05-22-12 Colorado Rockies v. Miami Marlins OVER 7.5 6-7 Win 100 17 h 10 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Ricky Nolasco is a strange pitcher in that he generally pitches better on the road than he does at home. He has a 6.60 ERA at home this year. The Rockies offense is capable of doing damage with Tulo and CarGo in the middle of the order. The Marlins offense has struggled all year, but I think they are starting to turn the corner. Miami should be able to score runs against Juan Nicasio, who has a better ERA than he probably should. Nicasio has faced tons of weak hitting teams this season. The over is 6-0 in Nolasco's last 6 home starts. The over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
05-20-12 San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 190.5 Top 102-99 Loss -110 20 h 49 m Show
*5 Star NBA Top Play Total* The San Antonio Spurs rallied from a 22 point first quarter deficit to win and go up 3-0 yesterday. The Clippers showed that they are intent on slowing the pace of the game down at home, and I think they'll try to do that again in this one. Both teams shot 46% from the floor which is very solid for playoff time, but the game still easily went under at 182 points. Two games ago both teams shot the lights out and the total still only hit 193. I think the pace says we'll have a lower scoring game than the oddsmakers expect here. The under is 18-3-1 in the last 22 meetings at Staples center. The under is 6-1-1 in the Spurs last 8. The under is 5-1 in the Clippers last 6. In all, a 29-5 winning angle supports the under. Take the under big here!
05-20-12 Los Angeles Angels v. San Diego Padres UNDER 6.5 2-3 Win 100 13 h 18 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Doug Eddings has been the best 'under' umpire in baseball for the last few years. Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in baseball. Ervin Santana and Anthony Bass have both improved as the season has gone along, and I expect both of them to use PetCo's dimensions as well as Eddings' strike zone to their advantage. The under is a stunning 21-4-4 in Santana's last 29 games overall. The under is 7-0-1 in his last 8 as a road favorite. The under is 16-4-1 in Eddings' last 21 interleague games behind the dish. Look for a very low scoring game. Take the under.
05-20-12 Baltimore Orioles v. Washington Nationals UNDER 6.5 3-9 Loss -115 12 h 33 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Stephen Strasburg struggled through his last start, and I fully expect him to bounce back in a big way here. Strasburg is an extremely talented pitcher who hasn't had a bad outing twice in a row before. Chen is a very good pitcher for the Orioles as well, and the Nationals struggle badly against lefties. Chen shut down the Rangers and the Yankees in his last two starts, so I expect him to fare well against a Nationals team that averages less than 3 runs per game against lefties. Both pitchers should be locked in on Sunday. Take the under.
05-19-12 Pittsburgh Pirates v. Detroit Tigers UNDER 8 4-3 Win 100 13 h 43 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the worst offenses in the majors. Pittsburgh averages 2.85 runs per game which is worst in the majors. Drew Smyly has been very good in his rookie year for the Tigers. A.J. Burnett has had four great starts and one awful start. The Tigers offense has been disappointing this year and they'll be without Austin Jackson here. Bill Miller is the umpire here and he is one of my favorite 'under' umpires. The under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings at Detroit. The under is 11-1-1 in the Pirates last 13 Saturday games. The under is 5-0 in Pittsburgh's last 5 against the AL Central. Take the under.
05-18-12 Arizona Diamondbacks v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 6-4 Win 100 20 h 30 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Joe Saunders is a very streaky pitcher. He looked great at the beginning of the year, but he has been shelled in his last two outings. He is a fly ball pitcher, and the wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 mph in this game. Luis Mendoza doesn't have great stuff, and I don't expect him to be able to shut down Arizona. Both of these guys put too many people on base, and I expect that to bite them in this game. The over is 10-1 in the Royals last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 8-3-2 in the last 13 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
05-17-12 Baltimore Orioles v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9 5-3 Loss -100 11 h 30 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Orioles have shocked the baseball world so far this year, and they have done it with their very impressive lineup. The Royals are much better than they started the season, and they have lots of young talent in their lineup. Brian Matusz and Luke Hochevar have both been extremely inconsistent on the mound this year. Both have an ERA of about 6 in day games in their career. The total is set pretty high, but that shouldn't be a problem. The over is 17-5-5 in Hochevar's last 27 starts with a total of 9-10.5. The over is 5-1 in the Orioles last 6 games with a total of 9-10.5. Take the over.
05-16-12 Pittsburgh: E Bedard v. Washington: G Gonzalez UNDER 6.5 4-7 Loss -120 17 h 50 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Two of the worst offenses in the National League get together in this one. Washington is without Werth and Morse. The Pirates offense has scored more than 5 runs just three times in 35 games. Gio Gonzalez has been dominant this year. Gonzalez has a 1.94 ERA. Erik Bedard hasn't gotten any run support, but he has a terrific 2.57 ERA as well. The Nationals average a miserable 2.53 runs per game against lefties. The Pirates average just 3.14 runs per game against lefties. The under is 22-7-3 in the Pirates last 32 games. The under is 6-1 in Bedard's last 7 starts. Take the under.
05-15-12 Kansas City: V Mazzaro v. Texas: C Lewis OVER 10 Top 7-4 Win 100 19 h 5 m Show
*5 Star MLB Top Play Total* The Kansas City Royals are sending Vin Mazzaro to the hill in this one. Mazzaro had an ERA over 8 last year! He hasn't pitched yet this year, and the team is really throwing him to the wolves by pitching him against the Rangers in Arlington. Colby Lewis struggles at home, and the Royals have a solid offense. Paul Schrieber is the umpire here, and he is a terrific over umpire. He has the lowest called percentage of strikes of any umpire in baseball this year by a large margin. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. The over is 6-1 in Lewis' last 7 Tuesday Starts. The over is 6-1 in the Rangers last 7 games. Take the over big!
05-15-12 Cincinnati Reds v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7 2-6 Loss -110 18 h 19 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Tim Hudson looked much better in his last start, and I think he is a guy who will round into form nicely this year. Johnny Cueto has arguably been the most consistently very good pitcher in the majors so far this year. Cueto has a dazzling 1.12 ERA. The under is 5-0 in Hudson's last 5 home games. The under is 5-0-1 in Cueto's last 6 starts with a total of 7 to 8.5 runs. The under is 4-0-1 in Cueto's last 5 starts on 5 days of rest. All signs point to this being a very low scoring game. Take the under.
05-15-12 Tampa Bay: D Price v. Toronto: H Alvarez UNDER 7.5 4-3 Win 100 18 h 7 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been better the last two days, but without Longoria they typically struggle to score. David Price has been terrific in his history against the Blue Jays. He has handled almost everyone in the lineup expect Jose Bautista. Bill Miller is one of my favorite 'under' umpires, and he'll be behind the dish in this one. Henderson Alvarez has a 0.82 ERA in his last three starts. Look for both pitchers to take advantage of a big strike zone. Take the under.
05-15-12 Detroit Tigers v. Chicago White Sox OVER 7.5 10-8 Win 100 13 h 20 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* A game with these two pitchers going with a total of 7.5 got my attention pretty quickly. The Tigers offense has been heating up a bit of late, and I think Peavy is due for some regression. Max Scherzer has a WHIP of 1.62 and an ERA of 5.73 on the season. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 to 20 mph, so the ball should really be traveling (especially in the heat of the day in this afternoon game). I really like the value on the over in this matchup.
05-14-12 Los Angeles Lakers v. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 191 90-119 Win 100 19 h 47 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Oklahoma City Thunder have been resting for a quite a while for this game, while the Lakers just closed out Denver late Saturday night. The Lakers are bound to be a little tired, and weary legs often leads to poor defense. Oklahoma City is going to want to get out and run when they can. The Lakers should be able to score quite a bit on the inside with Bynum and Gasol. The playoffs do have lower scoring games, but I think the oddsmakers brought this total down too far. Take the over.
05-14-12 Cincinnati Reds v. Atlanta Braves OVER 8.5 3-1 Loss -105 18 h 17 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Joey Votto went off for 3 HR's and 6 RBI's to rally the Reds to a big 9-6 walkoff win yesterday against Washington. The Reds offense should finish as one of the best in the National League, and this might be the thing to get them going. Atlanta has the best offense in the National League right now. The Braves average 5.40 runs per game. Homer Bailey hasn't pitched well this year, and he has a 5.40 ERA on the road. The Braves should put up 5 or 6 runs here. Randall Delgado doesn't have dominating stuff, and I think the Reds offense could do some damage. The over is 21-9 in Bailey's last 30 starts. Take the over.
05-13-12 LA Anaheim: J Weaver v. Texas: N Feliz UNDER 8.5 6-13 Loss -100 18 h 8 m Show
*3 Star Sunday Night Baseball Total Domination* Jeff Weaver has been the best pitcher in baseball so far this year. Texas has been the best offense in baseball. Neftali Feliz has been extremely good in his time as a starter this year, and the Angels offense is struggling in a big way. Dan Bellino is a solid under umpire. The under is 11-1 in his last 12 games behind the dish. Both of these pitchers are guys who will take advantage of his wide strike zone. The under is 6-0 in Texas' last 6 Sunday games. The under is 4-1 in Weaver's last 5 starts against Texas. Take the under.
05-12-12 San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8 5-2 Loss -100 17 h 32 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open, especially when it is very hot. The expected temperature at game time is 98 degrees here. The heat with low humidity really makes the ball fly. Matt Cain has struggled here in the past. Trevor Cahill didn't fare well in two games at home earlier this year when the roof was open. Both offenses have struggled a bit of late, but a total set at 8 with the roof open here is tough to pass up. I expect several home run balls in this one. Look for this to go over the posted total.
05-12-12 Atlanta Braves v. St.Louis Cardinals OVER 7.5 7-2 Win 107 16 h 37 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* These are the top two offenses in the National League right now. Atlanta has scored at least 9 runs in 4 of their last 9 games. The Braves offense is really clicking with Freddie Freeman having a breakout season and Michael Bourn getting on base with consistency. The Cardinals have a great lineup as well, and they actually lead the National League in runs. Carlos Beltran looks like the Beltran of old. Adam Wainwright hasn't been just right so far this year. Brandon Beachy has been awesome, but I think he'll struggle some against this great Cardinals lineup. The over is 8-0 in the Cards last 8 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The over is 3-0-1 in Wainwright's last 4 starts against Atlanta. The over is 4-0 in Beachy's last 4 against the NL Central. Take the over.
05-11-12 Detroit: R Porcello v. Oakland: T Milone OVER 7 4-11 Win 100 20 h 29 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* It was just a matter of time before the Detroit lineup had a huge game, and they did it last night against Bartolo Colon. The Tigers scored 10 runs and Miguel Cabrera had a huge game. Milone has pitched well twice at home this year, but I don't think he has the stuff to shut down Detroit. Rick Porcello is a very inconsistent pitcher, and he has fared poorly on the West Coast. The over is 17-4-1 in Porcello's last 22 against the AL West. The over is 4-1 in Porcello's last 5 against Oakland. This one is set too low. Take the over.
05-10-12 Chicago Bulls v. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 168.5 78-79 Loss -110 16 h 15 m Show
*3 Star Bulls/76ers Total Domination* I must admit I didn't expect to play an 'over' in this series. These two teams are both very good defensively, and the offenses have struggled to get on track. The reason for this play is solely value. An NBA game with a total below 170 points is almost unheard of. Looking at the shooting percentages from the last couple games, it's hard to imagine both teams shooting 35% or less again in this one. Doug Collins said after Game Five that the 76ers had a better chance of winning if they could get out in transition some. Look for them to get the pace a little more to their liking at home. This total is set too low. Take the over.
05-09-12 Washington: R Detwiler v. Pittsburgh: E Bedard UNDER 7 2-4 Win 100 17 h 13 m Show
*3 Star MLB Top Total* The Washington Nationals are terrible offensively right now. They are winning because they have the best team ERA in the majors. The Pittsburgh Pirates offense is one of the worst in baseball. Washington is without Werth and Morse right now. Erik Bedard has a 2.65 ERA this year, and Ross Detwiler has a sparkling 1.65 ERA. Detwiler is a major breakout candidate this year. The under is 12-3-1 in the Pirates last 16 home games. The under is 12-3-1 in Detwiler's last 16 road starts. The under is 5-0-1 in Detwiler's last 6 as a road underdog. Take the under here.
05-09-12 Cincinnati Reds v. Milwaukee Brewers UNDER 7 2-1 Win 100 10 h 14 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers haven't been hitting the ball well at all lately. They did take advantage of Homer Bailey's wildness last night, but Johnny Cueto is a much better pitcher. Zack Greinke is awesome at home, and with this being a get away day I expect some key Reds to be sitting out. Cueto has an amazing 0.81 ERA in his last three starts, while Grienke's is a respectable 3.12. Look for both pitchers to have a lot of success and go deep into the game here. I like the value on the under.
05-08-12 St.Louis Cardinals v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 6-1 Loss -110 20 h 19 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a whole different ballpark when the roof is open. The roof is expected to be open for this game. The low humidity and high temperatures make the ball carry extremely well here. Last night's game saw 6 home run balls leave the yard. The Cardinals hit five of those homers. Ian Kennedy has started twice in his career against the Cardinals and he hasn't fared well in either start. He has a 12.00 ERA against the Cards. Jake Westbrook is a streaky pitcher, and he was shaky in his last start. The over is 7-0 in the Cardinals last 7 games. The over is 4-0 in Kennedy's last 4 home starts. The over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings at Arizona. The over is 6-0-1 in Tim Welke (umpire) last 7 games with Arizona. In all, a 21-0 angle backs this one. Take the over.
05-08-12 Boston Red Sox v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 4-6 Win 100 19 h 50 m Show
*3 Star MLB Oddsmaker Error Total* The Boston Red Sox have been pounding left-handed pitching this year. Boston piled up 11 runs last night. Danny Duffy has started twice against Boston, and he has struggled badly in both outings. Daniel Bard still hasn't put it all together in the starting rotation just yet. The total here is set awfully low for two solid offenses and two pitchers who have a lot to prove. The over is 12-2 in the Red Sox last 14 against a lefty. The over is 17-6 in Chris Guccione (umpire) last 23 games behind home plate. Look for this one to go over.
05-08-12 Orlando Magic v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 180 87-105 Loss -110 5 h 49 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers have played four games. Only one game has gone over the posted total, and that was because it went into overtime. The other games have finished at 158, 171, and 171 points. The fourth game was 178 before going into overtime. An elimination game tends to bring out the best in both defenses as well as a much slower pace. This is an entirely different game in the playoffs, and in an elimination situation the change is even greater. I think this is an ugly game that stays below the posted total. Take the under.
05-07-12 Boston Red Sox v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9 11-5 Win 100 19 h 8 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Boston Red Sox played a 17 inning game and lost to the Orioles yesterday. The Red Sox pen was spent after the game. Felix Doubront may have to go ahead and labor through more innings in this one, and I think that will give the Royals more chances to score. Boston averages 6.54 runs against left-handed pitchers so far this year. Both of these pitchers allow a ton of base runners, and in the end that usually comes back to bite you. The over is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 overall in Game One of a series. The over is 8-0 in the Royals last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record. This 12-0 winning angle backs the over, and I like both offenses to put up several here. Take the over.
05-07-12 Texas: M Harrison v. Baltimore: B Matusz OVER 9.5 14-3 Win 101 18 h 58 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Baltimore Orioles swept away the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park this past weekend. Baltimore has been excellent against left-handed pitching this year. The over is 8-2 in their last 10 games against a lefty. Texas has a major league leading .296 batting average as a team against left-handed pitchers. With plenty of powerful right-handed hitters in the lineup, the Rangers should be able to score several against Matusz. Harrison has had two terrible games in a row, and this Orioles offense is good. Take the over.
05-06-12 New York Yankees v. Kansas City Royals OVER 9.5 10-4 Win 100 13 h 44 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Phil Hughes and Luke Hochevar both have an ERA over 7 so far this year. Both of these guys make far too many mistakes and are capable of giving up a huge inning. The Yankees offense hasn't been very good of late, but they are definitely still very dangerous. Kansas City is a much better offensive team than they have shown so far this year. Past history is giving us a solid value here. Both teams are hitting poorly right now, but this pitching matchup should equal plenty of runs. Take the over.
05-06-12 St Louis: Wainwright v. Houston: J Happ OVER 8 8-1 Win 100 12 h 13 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Astros offense has been surprisingly good this year. Houston is averaging 4.85 runs per game this season. They have been particularly good at home. Adam Wainwright is a very good pitcher, but he still isn't completely healthy right now. He hasn't been dominant in any game this year, and his ERA is over 6. JA Happ is a great pitcher for overs because he allows so many base runners. The Cardinals have one of the best offenses in the National League. The over is 5-0 in the Cardinals last 5 games. The over is 24-7 in the Astros last 31 games. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings overall. A 35-7 winning angle backs this play. Take the over.
05-05-12 OAK ATHLETICS v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7 4-3 Push 0 17 h 22 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Bartolo Colon has been terrific this year. Colon has been commanding his pitches better than he has in years. Colon has a 2.5 ERA on the year. Jeremy Hellickson also has a 2.5 ERA this year. The Rays are without Evan Longoria right now, and the Athletics offense is very weak. Paul Nauert is a bit of an under umpire, which should help some as well. The under is 17-3 in Hellickson's last 20 home starts. The under is 4-0 in Colon's last 4 starts. The under is 5-0 in Hellickson's last 5 starts against the AL West. A 26-3 winning angle backs the under here. Take the under.
05-05-12 Cincinnati: M Leake v. Pittsburgh: J Mcdonald UNDER 8 2-3 Win 100 17 h 48 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Cincinnati Reds offense has been a major disappointment this year. The Pirates have been dreadful offensively. Andrew McCutcheon is ill and is questionable for this game. He is clearly the Pirates best hitter. Mike Leake has been bad this year, but he has a nice history against the Pirates. James McDonald has been very good this season, and he has handled the Reds well in the past. Ron Kulpa is the umpire in this one and he is a very solid under umpire thanks to his large strike zone. Take the under.
05-05-12 Chicago (A): G Floyd v. Detroit: M Scherzer OVER 8.5 3-2 Loss -100 14 h 48 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Max Scherzer has struggled in a big way this season. He sports a WHIP that is above 2. Clearly, he is allowing far too many base runners. He has managed to limit the damage at times, but allowing so many runners will come back to bite him in the long run. Gavin Floyd has been pretty good this year, but he hasn't been good against the Tigers in the past. The over is 5-1 in his last 6 road starts in Detroit. The over is 5-1 in Scherzer's last 6 home starts. Take the over in this one.
05-03-12 Philadelphia: J Blanton v. Atlanta: R Delgado OVER 8 4-0 Loss -100 10 h 3 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* It was tough to see Roy Halladay blow a 6-0 lead when I had the Phillies ML yesterday, but this Braves offense is really showing how good it is right now. There isn't a better offense in the National League than the Braves at this point. Philadelphia is better offensively than they showed early in the year as well. Randall Delgado has issued 12 walks in just three starts this year. Joe Blanton has been torched by several guys on the Braves roster. Both of these pitchers have a high WHIP. The over is 18-8-1 in Blanton's last 27 road starts. The over is 6-1 in the Phillies last 7 road games. Both bullpens were used heavily last night. Take the over.
05-02-12 Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 185 98-105 Loss -110 9 h 53 m Show
*3 Star Clippers/Grizzlies Total Domination* Memphis had an epic collapse in Game One of this series, but I think that actually makes the 'under' look even better here. The Grizzlies are at their best when using up the shot clock and looking inside. Memphis made 11 three-pointers in Game One, but then started settling for outside jumpers. Look for Memphis to go back to their bread and butter here. The Clippers shot 50% on Sunday, which I doubt they'll duplicate in this game. The shooting percentages should come down, and the pace should slow down. Take the under.
05-02-12 Seattle Mariners v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 7 4-5 Win 100 17 h 52 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* The Seattle Mariners don't have a good offense, but they have surprisingly great numbers against James Shields. As a team, they are hitting .356 off Shields. Several Seattle players have torched Shields in the past. Blake Beavan is a pretty good pitcher for Seattle, but Tampa Bay should be able to put up a few runs against him. This number is set extremely low, which I believe puts the value squarely on the side of the over. The over is 16-5-2 in Jim Wolf's last 21 games behind the plate as HP umpire. Take the over.
05-01-12 Minnesota: F Liriano v. LA Anaheim: J Williams OVER 8.5 0-4 Loss -100 23 h 2 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Francisco Liriano simply isn't fooling anyone right now. Liriano was shelled in his first appearance this year against the Angels. Liriano's ERA in 2012 now sits at 11.02. Jerome Williams has a 5.51 ERA, and I don't see him as a shut down pitcher at all. A total this low with two pitchers who are capable of getting shelled is too much value for me to pass up. The over is 3-0-1 in Liriano's last 4 against the Angels. Expect both offenses to get going here. Take the over.
04-29-12 Los Angeles Clippers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 184 99-98 Loss -110 20 h 16 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Playoff basketball tends to lend to a much slower pace and better defense. I think we'll see that here. Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow pace and play strong defense. The under is 14-5 in the Grizzlies last 19 games. Don't expect either team to get too comfortable offensively in this game. I projected this total at 180 points, so I see plenty of value in this game. Look for this one to stay under the posted total.
04-29-12 Chicago Cubs v. Philadelphia Phillies UNDER 7.5 5-1 Win 100 13 h 48 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Bill Miller is one of my favorite 'under' umpires. The under is 22-5 in Miller's last 27 Sunday games behind the dish. Kyle Kendrick is much better at home. The under is 9-2-2 in his last 13 home starts. Matt Garza is the Cubs pitcher, and he has been consistently very good this year. The wind will be blowing in at almost 15 mph which should help quite a bit here. Between the two subpar offenses, a favorable umpire, and good weather conditions I like the under in this one.
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