*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants start Blake Snell here. No pitcher in the majors has been throwing the ball as well as him of late. Snell has a sparkling 1.05 ERA and a 1.30 FIP in his last five starts. He has 55 strikeouts in his last five starts. 

The Seattle Mariners have George Kirby on the mound in this one. Kirby had one terrible start, but in his last 15 starts he has a great 2.75 ERA and a 2.76 FIP. Kirby is a strike thrower to the max with a 1.32 walks rate per nine innings. 

Seattle and San Francisco both rank in the bottom five offenses in the majors in the last 14 days in weighted on base average. These two offenses are up against excellent pitchers here. 

Seattle strikes out at the highest rate of anyone in the majors. Snell should rack up the strikeouts here.

Tripp Gibson is a solid under umpire who should help give both pitchers the corners in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have scored 1 run or fewer in four of their last five games. The Guardians are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average in the majors in the last 14 days. 

The Texas Rangers have scored two runs or fewer in five of their last seven games. They have underachieved on offense all year. 

Tanner Bibee has an ERA under 2 in his last five games. Bibee now has a 2.36 ERA in the second half of the season in his career. Bibee has allowed just a .241 wOBA to the Texas Rangers lineup. 

Nate Eovaldi has a .242 wOBA allowed against the Cleveland lineup. Eovaldi is a solid pitcher who is up against an offense in a funk right now.

The Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball which is a plus for this bet especially with them favored in this contest.

The weather in Cleveland is mild now and the slight breeze will be blowing in during the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have scored 3 runs or fewer in 10 of their last 15 games. Tampa Bay is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. 

The Oakland A's have scored 3 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 15 games. In 9 of those 15 games they have scored 2 runs or fewer. 

Both Tampa Bay and Oakland rank in the top 12 in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. They rank 28th and 20th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching though. They are both up agianst right handed pitchers in this one.

Ryan Pepiot has had a very solid season. He has a 3.69 ERA and a 3.73 FIP. He has allowed just one earned run in his last three starts combined. 

Mitch Spence has a 4.64 ERA and a 4.38 FIP on the season. Spence has a 3.86 ERA when pitching in Oakland this season. He has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his last five starts.

Tampa Bay has the best bullpen ERA in the majors in the last 30 days. Oakland's bullpen is a major strength as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks got some bad news when Ketel Marte went on the injured list. Marte is the leader for this team, and he's been their most consistent hitter. 

The Miami Marlins have heated up a bit against right handed pitching, but they have been awful against left handed pitching. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties (only the White Sox have been worse and it is very close between those two). 

Eduardo Rodriguez is a pretty decent left handed pitcher who has just two starts this year. He had a bad first outing, but was much better in his second outing. 

Edward Cabrera has been hit hard on the road, but he has been good at home this season. He has great swing and miss stuff, and his potential is very. 

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. His strikes called rate and strikeout/walk ratios have been consistently very pitcher friendly. That should help both pitchers here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Blake Snell has been nearly unhittable of late. Since Snell came back from the injured list on July 9, he has an ERA of 0.99 in 45 and 1/3 innings pitched. He has 60 strikeouts in that span as well. In five of his seven outings during this streak, Snell has allowed no runs. He's been the most dominant pitcher in baseball of late. 

JP Sears has a 2.91 ERA in his last seven outings. Sears has only eight walks in those last seven outings, and his offspeed pitch has really been bothering opposing hitters.

The Giants have scored 3 runs or fewer in six of their last eight games. The A's have scored 2 runs or fewer in 7 of their last 12 games. 

The bullpens are well rested in general and I like this one to stay low scoring. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We have two starting pitchers who have a high strikeout rate this year. They are inducing swings and misses. The opposition strikes out a lot as well so it is a matchup that could work out well for the starters.

Bido has been great in three of his last four starts despite facing good competition. Birdsong is a pretty highly touted youngster who has been up and down this year. 

This is still one of the best pitcher's park in the majors. Both bullpen are in the top half of the league.

These teams had a day off yesterday and the back end dominant bullpen guys should be saved up and ready for this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Walker Buehler returns from the injured list to start in this one for the Dodgers. Buehler had a 5.84 ERA and a 6.07 FIP in his eight starts prior to being on the injured list. Buehler made three rehab starts. In those 3 rehab starts in Triple A, Buehler gave up nine runs in 12 and 2/3 innings and allowed 16 hits. 

Frankie Montas has a 5.10 ERA and a 4.92 FIP on the season. He has a low swinging strikes rate, and he walks far too many batters. Montas is also allowing a lot of home runs. 

The Dodgers lineup is the best in the National League with Mookie Betts healthy again. The top four in this lineup is a gauntlet that even great pitchers should struggle to get through. 

The Brewers lineup has been very good in recent weeks. While Buehler has the upside potential, he has really struggled with command this season.

David Rackley is a clear over umpire with a tighter strike zone than most. That should help the hitters here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* A pitching matchup of Stone vs. Rea with a total below a key number and two strong offenses has me on the over in this one. 

The Milwaukee Brewers are averaging 6.3 runs per game in their last ten games. The Brewers have some young talent that has really sparked the offensive output in the last few weeks. Jackson Chourio is at the top of that list.

The LA Dodgers are averaging 5.3 runs per game in their last ten games. They just got Mookie Betts back from injury yesterday and he immediately homered. The Dodgers offense is already very good and adding a superstar right near the top of the lineup will help a lot.

Gavin Stone has potential, but he is struggling right now. Stone has a 6.29 ERA and a 6.10 FIP in his last five starts. Colin Rea is due for regression with an unsustainable 80% strand rate on the season.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins start David Festa in this one. He has been one of the highest ranked pitching prospects in baseball, and he is coming off his best start of his career. Festa has a 1.88 ERA in his last three starts. He has 22 strikeouts in his last 14 innings pitched. He has been a very high strikeout guy during his time in the minors as well.

The Cleveland Guardians offense has hit the skids of late. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The only team who has been worse offensively during that time has been the Chicago White Sox. 

Tanner Bibee has been very good the Guardians this year. He has a 3.48 ERA and a 3.39 FIP on the season. 

The Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball, and the Twins have a top 6 or 8 bullpen in the majors too. Neither pitcher is expected to go too deep into the game here, but the bullpens have been excellent.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres have become one of the best offenses in baseball. The Padres are top five in the majors in wOBA and wins created against right handed pitching. They are top five in the league in both those categories over the last 30 days as well. They are top five in the league in away from home offensive performance. The Padres strike out at the lowest rate of any team in the majors against right handed pitching.

The Miami Marlins still aren't a great offense by any means, but since going young this offense has improved a lot. Edwards and Bride have provided a real spark for the team. Instead of being at the bottom of the barrel in offensive categories, they have been about league average of late. 

Waldron has allowed 3 runs or more in five of his last seven starts. Munoz has a 5.68 ERA and a horrible 7.04 FIP on the season. He has been getting crushed.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies are first in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Arizona Diamondbacks are second in the majors in wOBA against. Both of them will be up against a lefty today. 

Jordan Montgomery has drastic splits this year. He has a 4.26 ERA on the road with a .309 wOBA allowed. At home, he has a terrible 8.39 ERA and a .429 wOBA allowed.

In 10 of the Diamondbacks last 11 games they have scored at least 5 runs. Arizona is first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. This offense is red hot right now. 

The Phillies have scored 24 runs in their last four games. This is a lineup that is filled with guys who crush left handed pitching.

On the whole, Chase Field is still a hitter friendly park. I like both offenses to put up quite a few runs today.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles are one of the top three offenses in baseball. They have a really deep lineup full of guys who can hit for power. Baltimore's pitching has really dropped off in the last few weeks. In the last 30 days, Baltimore's bullpen ERA is 4.5, which is 21st in the majors. 

The Orioles have seen 12 of their last 13 games go over this posted total. Baltimore is consistently having very high scoring games both because of their elite offense and their pitching being mediocre of late.

The Toronto Blue Jays have been better hitting in the last few weeks. They are 14th in weighted on base average in the majors in the last two weeks. The Blue Jays have seen 10 of their last 13 games go over this posted total.

Grayson Rodriguez has a .409 wOBA allowed against this Blue Jays lineup. George Springer and Vlad Guerrero Jr. in particular have hit him hard. 

Chris Bassitt has a .454 wOBA allowed against this Orioles lineup. Gunnar Hunderson has 2 home runs against him in just 7 plate appearances. 

I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Paul Skenes is arguably the most dominant starting pitcher in baseball already. Skenes has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last 12 starts. He has a 1.64 ERA and a 2.52 FIP. He has one of the highest ground ball rates in all of baseball. Because of the movement on his pitches, hitters are chasing at a very high rate.

Arizona has been hitting the ball well, but Skenes has quieted even the best lineups and I'm counting on him to do it again here.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are decent offensively against lefties, but they are second worst in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Pirates are also bottom four in the majors in wOBA at home. 

Ryne Nelson has a 2.41 ERA and a 2.47 FIP in his last six outings. Nelson has allowed just one home run in his last 37 innings pitched. He has been far better on the road than at home in his career.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays have been hitting much better of late. They underachieved on offense for a long time this season. They have finally gotten it going. 

The New York Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average overall and first in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

In the Yankees last eight games, all eight of those games have finished with at least ten total runs. In the Blue Jays last nine games, eight of those have finished with ten runs or more.

Carlos Rodon has a 6.88 ERA and a 6.13 FIP in his last seven starts. Rodon is allowing a whopping 3.06 homers per nine innings in this stretch.

Jose Berrios has a 5.82 ERA and a 5.98 FIP in his last seven starts. Berrios has a .360 wOBA allowed against this Yankees lineup so they have really hit him hard.

The weather is favorable with a heat index of about 100 degrees and a very slight breeze blowing out.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two of the best young left handed pitchers in the game start in Detroit on Friday night. It's Cole Ragans starting for the Royals and Tarik Skubal starting for the Tigers.

Cole Ragans has pitched significantly better on the road than at home this year. Tarik Skubal has been tremendous at home this year. Skubal has a 1.95 ERA and a ridiculous low .219 weighted on base average allowed at home. 

The Kansas City Royals offense is fifth in the majors in wOBA at home, but they are 25th in wOBA on the road. 

Both of these teams have been below average against left handed pitching, and they are up against really good lefties here.

Skubal has struggled pitching in KC, but when facing the Royals at home he has been excellent. 

Ragans has allowed just 1 hit in 23 at bats against the Tigers lineup he is expected to face on Friday night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins offense has been better of late, but I'm not buying that they are going to be able to keep it up. Miami traded away Jazz Chisholm Jr. who had the best weighted on base average on the team before he was traded. The Marlins have a .336 batting average on balls in play in the last 14 days. That is unsustainable and they should come back down to earth soon. For the season as a whole, Miami is third worst in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

The Milwaukee Brewers have scored a combined 10 runs in their last five games. Milwaukee is a bit banged up and they have really struggled of late. Tobias Myers will try to help them stop their losing streak in this one. Myers has a 3.14 ERA and a 3.95 expected ERA. 

Kyle Tyler has a 3.92 ERA and a 3.92 FIP on the season. He doesn't pitch deep into the game, but that's actually a good thing in this case. The Miami Marlins bullpen is the strength of their team. It is a top five bullpen in the majors. 

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. In my umpire database of 91 home plate umpires, Cuzzi has called the third highest percentage of strikes in the last five years. Cuzzi consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Orioles have a very good offense, but several of their key players have been in a funk of late. Baseball is a game of momentum and the Orioles offense is just 15th best in weighted on base average in the last month. 

Michael King starts for San Diego here, and he has been amazing in the last couple months. King has a 2.52 ERA and a 2.38 FIP in his last 14 starts. In King's last 8 starts, he has a 2.40 ERA and a sparkling 1.90 FIP. He is striking out 11.40 batters per nine innings during that time.

Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles here. Kremer has historically been much better in the second half of the season than the first. San Diego is exactly middle of the pack in the last 30 and 14 days on offense. 

Ryan Blakeney is the umpire here, and he is a strike caller. He carries a high strikeout/walk ratio over his career.

This one is at the key number of 9, and I'm taking the under here.

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox have the worst offense in the majors in the last month, and it isn't close. Chicago also has the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching this season. 

The White Sox have scored 2 runs or fewer in six of their last seven games. They have also scored 3 runs or fewer in 11 of their last 12 games (the other game they scored just 4 runs). 

The Seattle Mariners offense has struggled badly of late. Seattle has scored 2 runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games. 

George Kirby is a really good right handed pitcher. He has allowed 2 runs or fewer in nine of his last ten starts. Kirby has a 3.20 ERA and a 2.74 FIP on the season. 

Drew Thorpe has a lot of upside and he has allowed 2 runs or fewer in five straight starts.

The weather in Chicago calls for moderate temperatures and winds blowing in about 7 mph during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians offense has cooled off drastically of late. Cleveland started the year on fire offensively, but in both the last 14 days and 30 days the Guardians have been a bottom 8 offense in the majors. 

Detroit has hit the ball better of late, but it has been helped by a really high batting average on balls in play. This is still a below average Tigers offense on the whole. 

Jack Flaherty is having a great bounce back season. Flaherty has a 3.13 ERA along with a 3.16 FIP and a 2.48 xFIP on the season. He is racking up the strikeouts. He is striking out 11.35 batters per nine innings on the season. He is walking only 1.52 batters per nine innings.

Tanner Bibee starts for the Guardians, and he has great swing and miss stuff. He is striking out 10.25 batters per nine innings. The Tigers have a lot of high strikeout guys in their lineup.

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here. Cuzzi has been one of the most consistent high strikeout/walk ratio umpires and a strong under umpire overall for many years. 

Six of the last eight Cleveland games have stayed under this low total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Garrett Crochet has been one of the best left handed starting pitchers in baseball this year. Crochet has a 3.02 ERA with a 2.43 expected ERA and a 2.35 FIP. In his last 14 starts, Crochet has a 1.74 ERA and a 1.68 FIP. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in any of those starts.

The Texas Rangers lineup is just 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average. I think Crochet is a really tough matchup for them. Crochet has great swing and miss stuff.

Jon Gray has been good this year. Gray has a 3.96 ERA and a 3.46 FIP. In his career, Gray has a fantastic .213 weighted on base average against this White Sox lineup. The White Sox are dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, and it isn't even close. In their last 9 games, the White Sox have topped 3 runs only once (that time was only 4 runs too), so they come into this one ice cold.

Vic Carapazza is 12-8 to the under this year and his strikeout/walk ratio is high. He should help the pitchers as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies offense is the weakest it has been in many years. Coors Field is still absolutely a hitter friendly park, but many of the Rockies games have been low scoring, especially of late. 

In the Rockies last 9 home games, 8 of the 9 have stayed under this total. The one that went over the total finished at 11 total runs. In fact, 7 of the 9 games finished with 7 runs or fewer. 

Austin Gomber has better numbers at home this year than he has on the road. While the Red Sox are a good offense, they are far better against right handed pitching. The Red Sox are 3rd in weighted on base average against righties. They are 17th in the majors in wOBA against lefties.

Tanner Houck has been tremendous this year for the Red Sox. Houck has a superb 2.54 ERA and a 2.67 FIP. 

The temperature here should be mild in the upper 70's with a wind blowing in from right field at about 8 mph.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox rank last in both weighted on base average against right handed pitching and wOBA in the last 30 days. The White Sox offense is really bad however you look at it. This team gets held to a very low number very often.

Seth Lugo has been solid all season. Lugo has a 2.48 ERA and a 3.32 FIP on the season. He has allowed no runs in his last 12 innings pitched at home. 

Kansas City is 25th in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Royals offense is just 19th in wOBA against right handed pitching too. Drew Thorpe was excellent in the minors. He struck out 182 batters last year and had a 1.35 ERA in AA earlier this year. Thorpe has a very high upside. 

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 7 or 8 mph during the game. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals start Brady Singer in this one. Singer has a solid 3.20 ERA and a 4.01 FIP on the season. In Singer's last five starts he has a 2.67 ERA and a 3.23 FIP. Singer has had drastic home/road splits the last couple years too. Singer has an ERA nearly a full run lower at home than on the road in his career. So far this year, Singer has a 2.72 ERA when pitching at home. Singer's weighted on base average allowed in the second half of the season has been .303 compared to .332 in the first half. 

The Chicago White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitchers. This is a good matchup for Singer.

The Kansas City Royals are 27th in wOBA on offense in the last 30 days. The Royals aren't walking much at all, and they aren't hitting for much power either. 

Jonathan Cannon has a 4.41 ERA and a 4.18 FIP. The right hander had one ugly start in Detroit in June, but overall he has been better in his last few starts. 

The slight wind will be blowing in at about 6 or 7 mph during this game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals host the Cincinnati Reds tonight to start off the second half of the MLB season. 

Patrick Corbin is on the mound for the Nationals. Corbin was once a very good starting pitcher, but that was a long time ago. Corbin is now one of the worst left handed starters in baseball. Corbin has a 5.57 ERA and a 6.29 expected ERA for the season as a whole. The Cincinnati Reds are much better against lefties than righties too. The Reds lineup has smashed Corbin in the past. They have a whopping .515 weighted on base average against Corbin. 

Frankie Montas starts for the Reds here. Montas has a 4.38 ERA and a 4.85 expected ERA on the year. The Nationals are bad against lefties, but are league average against right handed pitching. The youngsters in the Nationals lineup have been good of late.

The weather here calls for mid 80's and a slight wind blowing out.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Lynx were blown away by the Seattle Storm in their last game by a score of 91-63. 

Minnesota has the best defense in the WNBA so far this year giving up just 0.927 points per possession. The Lynx were embarrassed on defense in that loss to Seattle. They gave up 50 points in the first half alone. 

I expect Minnesota to come out with a lot more effort on defense and try to control the pace. Minnesota plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the WNBA. 

The Fever play at a league average tempo. They are below average on defense, but with Collier not likely to play I think Minnesota will have a bit more trouble scoring than normal.

This is a Sunday afternoon contest and those games have been great under bets in the last decade in the WNBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Rangers offense has underwhelmed for much of the year, but they have finally woken up of late. In the last 14 days, Texas ranks second in the majors in weighted on base average. They have been hitting for power at a much higher rate of late. 

The Houston Astros have been a bit banged up, but Yordan Alvarez was back in the lineup on Friday night and that's a big key. Jose Altuve has been mashing of late too. Houston is sixth in the majors in wOBA in the last 14 days. 

Nathan Eovaldi is a good pitcher, but he has long had major problems getting the Houston Astros out. Eovaldi has a terrible .439 wOBA allowed against the Astros. Eovaldi has given up a whopping 12 home runs in 137 at bats against this Astros lineup. Yordan Alvarez is 11/17 with 3 doubles and 2 homers against him. Jose Altuve has 7 home runs in just 48 at bats against him.

Spencer Arrigheti walks far too many batters. He relies on getting a bunch of strikeouts. The Rangers rank among the six best teams in the majors in lowest strikeout rate. Arrigheti walks 5 batters per nine innings. 

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* There is heavy wind blowing out to center field in this one, and there is rain in the forecast on and off through the night. 

There is a good chance this game would be delayed at some point and there is some chance it would be canceled. If the game is played, I like the over here.

The bullpen is usually seen a whole lot more in rain delayed games. The Rockies bullpen has the worst ERA in the majors by a huge margin. The Mets have the 12th worst bullpen ERA too.

The Mets offense has been red hot in the last few weeks. Tanner Gordon had poor numbers in the minors and I doubt he is successful right away in the majors. The Rockies have major splits vs. righty/lefty. Colorado is much better against left handed pitching and they are up against a lefty here.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees offense is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Shane Baz doesn't have much experience in the big leagues. He has some good stuff, but he is prone to giving up a big inning here and there.

Tampa Bay is bottom five in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, but they are top ten in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Nestor Cortes has struggled mightily against this Rays lineup. In 126 plate appearances, the Rays lineup has an impressive .382 wOBA against Cortes. 

Edwin Moscoso is the home plate umpire here. Out of 91 umpires in my umpire database, Moscoso is dead last in percentage of pitches called a strike in the last five years. Moscoso also has the single lowest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire during that time. Not surprisingly, the over is 84-50 in his 134 games behind home plate.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense has been on fire in recent weeks. Now, they go up against Patrick Corbin. The current Mets lineup has a really impressive .389 weighted on base average against Corbin. Pete Alonso leads the way with 5 career homers against Corbin.

Corbin was once a very good pitcher,  but that is no longer the case. Corbin is a subpar lefty with an ERA over 5. He gives up very hard contact, and he no longer generates the swings and misses that he did several years ago. The Mets are fourth in the majors in wOBA against lefties this year. This is a good matchup for the Mets offense.

Luis Severino is a really streaky pitcher. Severino has been struggling of late. He has a 6.04 ERA and a 5.61 FIP in his last four starts. The Nationals lineup has been very weak against lefties, but they are 15th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Carlos Torres is the home plate umpire in this game. In my umpire spreadsheet where I track all the umpires, Torres is top three in the majors in lowest percentage of pitches called a strike. He continually has a much lower than average strikeout/walk ratio. The over is 85-65 in his games behind home plate.

The wind here is a key as well. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph blowing out toward center field are expected for this game. The ball should be carrying very well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics offense has shown a lot of life lately. Oakland has been giving more of their young prospects a chance of late, and those guys have gone out and produced right away. Oakland has scored 41 runs in their last six games. The A's are top ten in weighted on base in the last 14 days despite having a low batted ball average. 

Joey Estes starts for Oakland here. Estes has been great when pitching at home, but on the road he has been atrocious. Estes has a 7.00 ERA and a .397 weighted on base average allowed on the road this season. 

The Boston offense is above average on the whole and the depth of the lineup is solid.

Brayan Bello has struggled at home with an ERA over 6 so far this year at Fenway.

The weather here calls for winds blowing out at about 10 mph. Fenway is a top 3 hitters park and with warm weather and winds blowing out it is even more that way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins rank second and first respectively in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. Both of these offenses have been on fire of late. 

The Minnesota Twins have seen their last four games all finish with 11 total runs or more. The Houston Astros have seen six of their last eight games finish with 11 total runs or more. 

Spencer Arrigheti is walking more than five batters per nine innings. In his last four starts, Arrigheti has an 8.64 ERA and a 6.94 FIP. 

Simeon Woods-Richardson started the year well, but he has been slipping of late. In his last six starts, he has a 4.55 ERA and a 4.96 FIP. He has allowed six home runs in his last 31 innings. 

The weather here is a positive for runs as well. The temperature will be around 80 degrees with about 10 mph winds blowing out toward center.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are easily worst in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Miami has a brutal .265 wOBA against lefties and they are dead last in ISO (power), so this Marlins team is bad all around against lefties. 

The Chicago White Sox are dead last in the majors in wOBA against righties. The White Sox are a right handed heavy lineup, and they have consistently been dominated even by mediocre right handed pitching.

Garrett Crochet has been amazing for the lowly White Sox this year. Crochet has some of the best statistics of any lefty this year. In Crochet's last 12 starts, he has a sparkling 1.63 ERA and a 1.65 FIP. He has 12 walks and 101 strikeouts in those 12 starts. It's a very tough matchup for the Marlins hitters.

Yonny Chirinos has a solid 3.77 ERA and 3.92 FIP this year. Chirinos is actually backed by a pretty good bullpen in Miami too. 

This total is set low, but it is low for good reasons.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers and Cincinnati Reds are 27th and 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average this year. Against right handed pitching, the Reds are 26th and the Tigers are 25th. 

The Reds have been held to zero or one run in 6 of their last 16 games. This offense is capable of going very quiet. If you look down the order, the Reds batting averages are very poor. It can be tough for them to string together hits.

The Tigers offense rates even a bit worse than the Reds for the season overall. This Tigers offense is young and not very good.

Reese Olson is a good young starter for the Tigers. Olson has a 3.32 ERA and an even more impressive 2.90 FIP on the season. He has been terrific in his last three starts.

Carson Spiers has a 3.13 ERA and a 2.68 FIP this season. He's not a great pitcher by any means, but he doesn't walk many guys and he doesn't give up many home runs.

The Reds bullpen is better than league average and the Tigers bullpen is league average.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies offense is slowed considerably by the loss of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Both of these guys had been contributing in a big way of late. They are both on the injured list now. 

The Miami Marlins have the worst offense in baseball. Miami is bad against right handed pitching, but they are next level bad against left handed pitching. They are historically bad against the lefties. Ranger Suarez is one of the best left handed pitchers in baseball.

Suarez has a fantastic .250 weighted on base average allowed against the current Miami Marlins lineup. He has a 2.01 ERA on the season thus far this year.

The Phillies offense is no better than mediocre in their current state. Both bullpens are top ten in FIP allowed so far this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense has been on fire of late. The Mets are averaging a whopping 6.65 runs per game over a large 20 game sample size in their last 20 games. The Mets have been elite agianst lefties all season. Framber Valdez is a quality lefty, but he hasn't been as overpowering this year as he has been in some past seasons. Valdez has a 3.68 ERA and his strikeout rate is down to just 7.03 strikeouts per nine innings. 

Houston's offense has been waking up in recent weeks. The Astros are still a really talented lineup, and most of the team has underachieved for the year overall thus far. Houston is up against Tylor Megill here. Megill has a 4.81 ERA on the season.

The wind is a key factor here too. The weather calls for winds blowing out to center field at 17 mph at the start of this game. The wind is expected to continue at 15 or 16 mph on average during the contest. Citi Field is a place where the weather has mattered more than the average stadium.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres host the Washington Nationals in this final game of the series on Wednesday afternoon. 

San Diego has been on fire offensively of late. The Padres have scored 6 runs or more in five of their last six games. 

Washington has scored 6 runs or more in four of their last five games. Dylan Cease starts for the Padres. Cease is ultra talented, but he is very streaky. In his last five games, Cease has an ERA above six. 

D.J. Herz was amazing against Miami a couple starts ago, but they are an abysmal lineup (especially against lefties). The Padres have a deep lineup and should make it tough on him.

Edwin Moscoso is one of the best over umpires in the league. Moscoso is 10-5 to the over this year and the over is 73-43 in his last 116 behind the plate. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles are first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. Baltimore's offense has had a couple down games in their last three games, but I expect a bounce back soon. This Orioles offense is deep and they have a ton of power.

Cleveland's offense has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. Steven Kwan has been setting the table and Jose Ramirez and company have been knocking in a ton of runs. The Guardians are fifth in wOBA in the last 30 days. 

The Guardians have scored five runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Baltimore scored 35 runs in three games right before this very recent minor slump.

Logan Allen has been struggling badly this year. Cole Irvin is due for regression and his long term numbers show he is no better than a mediocre lefty.

The weather matters here too. The game time temperature will be about 90 degrees and the wind will be blowing out to center at about 10 mph. That's a big boost for the over.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* Taking an under in a game played at Coors Field is never fun, but I'm going under this total.

Kyle Freeland has similar splits at home vs. on the road through his career. He is coming back from an injury, and he's up against a Nationals team that is bottom five in the majors against lefties.

Jake Irvin has been good this year. His walk rate has plummeted to 1.99 walks per nine innings and he has a 3.24 ERA on the season. The Rockies are a bottom five offense against righties.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the very best under umpires in baseball. Eddings consistently has an extremely high strikes called rate and a high strikeout/walk ratio. For example, the MLB average so far this year is around 2.65 for a strikeout/walk ratio. Eddings has a 4.09 strikeout/walk ratio. Eddings is a very pitcher friendly umpire. Dating back to 2006, the under is 12-6 in Eddings 18 games behind home plate at Coors Field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Quietly, Erick Fedde has been pitching extremely well this year. In his last  five starts, Fedde has a 3.07 ERA and a really impressive 2.29 FIP. He has allowed only one home run in his last five starts. 

Jack Flaherty has a 3.01 ERA and a 2.61 FIP on the season. Flaherty hasn't allowed a single run in his last three starts combined. He has two walks and 19 strikeouts in those three starts. 

The White Sox are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average. The Tigers are 24th. 

The Tigers have scored a grand total of 3 runs in their last four games. All four of those games have stayed under this low total.

The White Sox have scored 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Wings take on the Chicago Sky in a noon eastern (11 am central) start. 

These rare early start times have played heavily toward the under in the WNBA. In games with a spread of 5.5 points or less in either direction and a total of 155 or higher (both fit this game), the under is at almost exactly 60% in the last 400 contests. 

Dallas ranks second to last in tempo in their last eight games. If you look at just the last five games, Dallas is last in offensive efficiency in the WNBA. Chicago is only 10th out of 12 teams in offensive efficiency.

Both teams saw their last game go comfortably over the total. The WNBA has shown the propensity to have games that were high for both teams followed up by an under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball. They have the best bullpen ERA and the best bullpen FIP. It is no fluke. The Guardians have a very deep bullpen. Bibee starts for Cleveland here, and he has great strikeout stuff. He is averaging 10.39 strikeouts per nine innings so far this year. 

Woo starts for the Mariners. He has a 1.07 ERA and a 2.38 FIP. He is walking only 0.53 batters per nine innings. 

The Guardians have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last ten games. The Mariners have allowed three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games.

The home plate umpire for this one is Doug Eddings. He has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the majors over the last five years. Eddings has a strikeout/walk ratio of higher than 4 this year. He is a very pitcher friendly umpire.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Padres and Phillies both have pretty good pitchers going in this one, but there are several factors pointing to the over here. 

The weather calls for temperatures in the upper 80's at the beginning of the game. The winds are expected to be blowing out toward center field at about 11-13 mph. The ball should carry very well in Philadelphia today. Long term trends show that this is a stadium where the winds matter a lot.

Both of these teams rank in the top eight in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching so far this year. 

The home plate umpire here is a big over umpire. Edwin Moscoso is a newer umpire, but he has consistently had a very low called strikes and strikeout/walk ratio. The over has cashed in better than 60% of his games so far.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are easily last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Washington Nationals are second to last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Both teams start a lefty in this one. Jesus Luzardo is an inconsistent lefty. There is always some risk with him because he is occasionally hit hard, but his stuff is great and this Nationals lineup is very weak against lefties. Mitchell Parker is a youngster who is off to a solid start with the Nationals. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in a game all season long. He has a 3.21 ERA on the season.

The Marlins have scored three runs in their last three games. Miami is averaging 2.1 runs per game in their last 12 contests. 

The Marlins bullpen struggled early in the year, but they have been the strength of the team in recent weeks. The Nationals bullpen is middle of the pack, but that gives them an advantage over this Miami offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Washington Nationals rank 23rd in wOBA in the last 14 days. These lineups aren't great to begin with, and they come into this one in poor form. 

Jake Irvin has made huge improvements this year. What has been the big key? Irvin is walking far less people than he was in previous seasons. Irvin averaged 4.02 walks per nine innings last year, but he is walking only 1.68 batters per nine innings this year. He has a 3.14 ERA and a 3.16 FIP on the season. 

Reese Olson has excellent stuff and the scouts loved him before he got up to the big leagues. He is coming off one of his worst starts as a big leaguer. I like his chances of bouncing back. Comerica Park is clearly a pitchers park and it is even more so when the wind is blowing in as it is expected to be during this game. 

The weather here calls for winds blowing in at about 8-10 mph at the start of this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both the LA Angels and the Arizona Diamondbacks are much stronger against left handed pitching as compared to right handed pitching. They are both up against a left handed starter here.

The Angels are second in the majors against lefties. The DBacks are top ten as well.

Jose Suarez is getting a rare start here for the Angels. Suarez has been hit around in the bullpen this year, and he has shown no signs of being a good starter in the past. 

Jordan Montgomery has a 8.46 ERA and a .444 wOBA allowed in his home starts this year. Montgomery comes into this game in poor form.

Both of the bullpens are problems and when the starters go out there should be plenty more scoring chances.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Guardians offense has really hit left handed pitching well this year. They are tied for fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Guardians are up against Trevor Rogers in this one. Rogers has been a decent amount worse when pitching at home throughout his career. He also has a 7.36 ERA and a 5.98 FIP in his last six starts. He is inconsistent and is capable of being hit hard.

Carlos Carrasco was once a good starting pitcher, but he is far past his prime and his numbers this year aren't good. Carrasco has a 6.97 ERA and a 5.88 FIP in his last six starts. He has allowed 2.32 home runs per nine innings in that six game span. 

The Marlins offense isn't good, but they are definitely much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching.

Nate Tomlinson is the home plate umpire here, and the over is 30-15 in his last 45 games behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Matt Waldron has been on fire of late. Waldron has a 1.84 ERA and a 1.91 FIP in his last five starts. The knuckleball has been working very well. With a knuckeballer you always worry some about stolen bases from the opposition, but the Diamondbacks are near the bottom of all of baseball in stolen bases. 

Ryne Nelson has been far better away from Chase Field in his young career. Nelson has very good splits on the road. The Padres offense has been inconsistent this year.

The Diamondbacks are fantastic against lefties, but they are subpar against right handed pitching.

Tripp Gibson is the home plate umpire for this game. In the last five years, the games he has been under center for have gone 78-61 to the under (56.1% unders). He has a high strikeout/walk ratio and has been consistently a pitcher friendly umpire.

Petco Park is still one of the better parks in the majors for pitchers too. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's host the Seattle Mariners in the series finale on Thursday afternoon. 

Both teams start pitchers who are in good form and have a good track record against their opponent in this one. Sears has allowed a .204 batting average against the Mariners, and this Seattle offense has really been slumping of late. Woo has allowed a .125 batting average against the A's in a smaller sample size.

Sears has a 4.01 ERA and a 4.12 xERA on the season. Woo has a 1.30 ERA and a 2.08 xERA in his five starts so far this year.

It is a get away day game and there could be a key bat or two missing from the lineup here. 

The home plate umpire here is Mahrley and he is a solid strike caller which is a plus for the under as well. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves offense is better than they have shown in the last few weeks. Yes they are without Acuna, but this is still a very good offense and a deep lineup. There are several very good hitters on this team who have just been ice cold in the past month. I expect them to heat up.

Nick Pivetta pitches for the Red Sox. Pivetta has a much worse ERA at home with Boston than he does on the road. Pivetta gives up too many home runs at Fenway. The Braves lineup has torched him in the past too. In a large sample size, he has allowed a .371 wOBA against the Braves. 

Spencer Schwellenbach is a pretty good prospect, but he has been moved up to the majors very quickly. This is a big test for him.

The conditions at Fenway are great for an over. The temperature will be in the upper 80's with winds blowing out at about 10 mph. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jack Flaherty is having a really impressive season. His ERA is a solid 3.46, but his advanced metrics paint an even better picture. Flaherty has a 2.79 FIP and a 2.03 xFIP. He has pitched into some bad luck or his ERA would be even better. Flaherty has a 2.35 ERA and a 2.15 FIP in his last six starts. He has just six walks and 54 strikeouts in those six outings. 

The Rangers offense ranks in the bottom eight in the majors in the last couple weeks. They have been struggling in general and they are striking out a lot.

Dane Dunning is a decent right handed pitcher. Dunning has good numbers in a small sample against the Tigers lineup. Detroit's lineup is a slightly below average lineup according to the advanced metrics. 

I think this total is set too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two left handed starters are on the mound in this one. The Miami Marlins are second to last in the majors with a .271 weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Texas Rangers are 26th out of 30 in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Andrew Heaney and Trevor Rogers are middle of the pack lefties, but against this lineups that makes for a pretty good matchup. Both Heaney and Rogers have very good numbers against the opposing offense in a small sample size.

The Rangers have been involved in a lot of low scoring games of late. The Rangers have seen 10 of their last 12 games stay under this total. 

The Marlins have scored 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners have underachieved on offense all season. They fired their hitting coach Friday and switched things up a bit. Now, they take on the LA Angels and Reid Detmers on Saturday.

Detmers has been absolutely crushed by the Mariners to the tune of a .431 weighted on base average in 77 plate appearances. Detmers is in terrible form of late too. He has a 9.49 ERA in his last five starts. The Mariners are better against lefties than right handed pitching.

The Angels offense has been better than expected without Mike Trout. The Angels also have one of the very worst bullpens in the majors. That has led to a lot of higher scoring games. Miller starts for the Mariners here and he has a poor 5.22 ERA in his last five starts.

The home plate umpire here is Mark Wegner. Wegner has one of the five lowest strikeout/walk ratios of any umpire in the last five years. He is a hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves were the best defense in the NBA in the regular season. Early in this series we didn't see a Minnesota defense that looked like a great defense. In game four, Minnesota finally ratcheted up the pressure and bothered Dallas. 

Minnesota held the Nuggets to 70 points and 90 points in Game 6 and Game 7 in elimination games. The Timberwolves coaching staff spoke a lot about the focus on defense before and after game four.

The later in the series it gets especially this deep in the playoffs, the tempo of the game typically slows down a bit. There is a lot on the line. 

Dallas has improved in a big way defensively late in the season. They have done a good job on Anthony Edwards in this series. 

Marc Davis is the main referee here and he is one of the best under refs in the NBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has cooled off a bit lately. This is still a top two or three offense in the majors at the very worst. They might still be the best. I expect them to bounce back sooner rather than later. 

David Peterson will come back from the injured list to start this game against the Dodgers. Peterson has allowed a .406 weighted on base average against this Dodgers lineup in his career. It's a very tough ask for him to come back after a long time and have success immediately against this group.

James Paxton is due for more regression to the mean. Paxton has 28 walks and 28 strikeouts on the season. He has a 3.49 ERA and a 5.56 FIP. He is 35.5 years old and he can't keep up the 85% strand rate he currently has. The Mets have a .425 wOBA against Paxton in his career. 

Both bullpens are bottom ten in the league in the last two weeks.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Angels have drastic splits this year on offense. The Angels are 17th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are 4th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

The New York Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Yankees are also first in the majors in wOBA in road games. 

Nestor Cortes is a good lefty, but the Angels have been hitting lefties well and I think their power could make some noise here. 

Griffin Canning has pitched poorly especially of late for the Angels. In his last five starts, Canning has 14 walks and 16 strikeouts. He has a 2.93 ERA in those games, but his FIP is 5.47. He is stranded nearly ever runner on base. In the long run that isn't sustainable. 

The Angels bullpen is terrible and the Yankees should get chances against them too.

I like the matchups in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ranger Suarez is having a special season. Suarez has a 1.36 ERA and his expected ERA is an impressive 2.30. Suarez has had excellent control this year and he has been great at not giving up big innings. 

The Rockies lineup is much weaker this year than it has been in the past. Colorado's current lineup has really struggled against Suarez too. The Rockies lineup has a very low .241 weighted on base average against Suarez.

Cal Quantrill isn't a great pitcher, but he does a nice job mixing up his pitches and keeping batters guessing. Quantrill has a 3.59 ERA and a 3.88 expected ERA. He has a solid 3.91 ERA when pitching at home this year. 

Coors Field unders are tough, but the weather is better than normal this time of the year. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 15 mph during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees have held opponents to two runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. The Yankees have good starting pitching as well as a deep bullpen.

The San Diego Padres offense is very streaky. They have struggled in a lot of games of late. The Padres have been held scoreless in 4 of their last 9 contests. 

Dylan Cease has elite stuff and is capable of shutting down good lineups. He does have some blowup potential, but it is a big plus for him that Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here.

Marcus Stroman has been consistently pitching well this season, and the bullpen is in good shape heading into this one.

Doug Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in my umpire database over the last five years. Eddings has a ridiculously high strikeout/walk ratio of 3.96 so far this season. He's a clear positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Great American Ballpark is a top three hitters park in the majors, especially when it is warm in Cincinnati. The game time temperature is set to be 80 degrees.

Graham Ashcraft has drastic splits in his career. Ashcraft is far worse when pitching at GABP. He has a 3.93 ERA on the road in his career, but his home ERA is all the way up at 5.46. Ashcraft also has an ERA of 6.10 in May in his career. He has been far worse in the first half of the season than he has in the second half.

James Paxton has a 2.84 ERA and a 5.14 FIP. He also has a 5.55 expected ERA. He has a .242 batting average on balls in play allowed. He also has stranded 87% of runners on base. Neither of those are sustainable in the long run.

The Dodgers have the best offense in baseball. I expect them to score a lot on Ashcraft and the Reds bullpen. The Reds should do enough here in good hitting conditions at home.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox have been dreadful offensively on the season as a whole, but they are up to 19th in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Blue Jays are a better offense than they have shown this year. They have some solid hitters who have underachieved to this point.

These two teams are last and second to last in batting average on balls in play so far this year. They are due for some positive regression in the weeks to come.

Nastrini starts for the White Sox and he has been hit really hard in both Triple A and his two starts in the majors this year. Nastrini has a 7.88 ERA in two big league starts this year. In Triple A Nastrini has a 5.83 ERA and a 6.39 FIP in six starts. I have always taken the approach that if guys struggle to get outs in Triple A, I can't assume that they will be good right away in the majors.

Bassitt starts for the Blue Jays. He has a 5.03 ERA and a 5.00 expected ERA this year. He's 35 years old and is likely past his prime as a starting pitcher.

Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom three in the majors in FIP.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros lineup has heated up a lot of late. Houston has scored 7 runs or more in four of their last eight games. Houston is now third in the majors in weighted on base average. The Astros go up against Griffin Canning here. Canning has allowed a terrible .408 wOBA against this Astros lineup in his career. I think they'll get to him again here. 

The Angels bullpen is a bottom five bullpen in the league as well. Houston should have scoring opportunities all throughout this game.

Cristian Javier has a 3.23 ERA but a 4.29 FIP so far this year. He has allowed a batting average on balls in play of only .226 which should regress to the mean. The Angels are 12th in the majors in wOBA.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have the best bullpen ERA in all of baseball. They are also first in FIP and SIERA as a bullpen. They are a tremendous bullpen. The Minnesota Twins bullpen is above average in ERA and third in the majors in SIERA.

Tanner Bibee is an above average starter who has good swing and miss stuff. The Twins are 18th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. 

The Guardians are 24th in wOBA against right handed pitching on the year thus far. Paddack is certainly not an elite pitcher, but he has been pretty solid most of this year.

Minnesota is 25th in wOBA in the last 14 days. Cleveland is 28th in wOBA on offense in the last 14 days. 

The wind is expected to be blowing in for this one and that matters quite a bit in Cleveland.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best offense in the majors. The Dodgers have a .342 weighted on base average on the season. With a trio of Mookie Betts, Shoehei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman leading the way the Dodgers have huge upside as an offense.

Frankie Montas pitches for the Reds here. Montas has been shelled by this Dodgers lineup. In 63 plate appearances, the Dodgers have a whopping ..534 wOBA against Montas. Montas is a below average right handed pitcher.

James Paxton pitches for the Dodgers here. Paxton has a 2.58 ERA on the year, but he has a FIP of 4.86 and an expected ERA of 5.89. Paxton has stranded 86.3% of runners on base this year, and that number will regress over time.

The Reds offense is quite a bit better against left handed pitching, and I think they'll get their scoring chances in this one too.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cardinals offense disappointed for a very long time, but they have come to life of late. St. Louis is 28th on the year in weighted on base average, but they are 9th in the last week alone. The Cardinals have scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series against the Angels.

The Angels have seen 4 of their last 6 games get to at least 12 runs. Griffin Canning has a 5.75 ERA on the year and a expected ERA and FIP of about 5. 

Lance Lynn is well past his prime, and this Angels lineup has a .370 wOBA against him. 

The Angels bullpen has been terrible. They have the worst bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.21. St. Louis is a middle of the pack bullpen.

Larry Vanover is a bit of an over umpire through the years so that is a plus as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season thus far. They are dead last in the majors in FIP allowed so far this year. Aaron Civale starts this game, and he has struggled badly this season. Civale has failed to complete 5 innings pitched in four straight starts. He has a 5.88 ERA on the season thus far. 

Nick Pivetta has a career 4.85 ERA pitching at Fenway Park. Pivetta also has a terrible 5.35 ERA in night games in his career (3.84 ERA in day games). This one will be under the lights at Fenway.

The wind is expected to be blowing straight out at Fenway at about 12 mph at the time of the first pitch in this one. Overs at Fenway Park with the wind blowing out at least 8 mph have an ROI of 11.1% since 2006.

I think both offenses will have a lot of scoring opportunities in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Zac Gallen has proven himself as one of the better right handed starting pitchers in the league. Gallen has really good command of multiple pitches, and he has the strikeout pitch that you need in today's baseball. 

Dean Kremer has consistently started the season terribly in March and April, but he isn't a bad pitcher overall. Kremer has a good career ERA in the month of May. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season throwing six innings of shutout baseball against the Reds. He has a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is consistently a very good under umpire. His strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio have been excellent for pitchers many years in a row now.

Relatively cool temperatures and a slight breeze in help a bit too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox meet at Fenway Park on Saturday afternoon. It will be a cool and somewhat breezy day in Boston for this one. A temperature of about 54 degrees with winds blowing in at 9 or 10 mph from right field toward home plate.

These conditions have been great to under bettors in the long run at Fenway. This is one of the parks where the winds matter the very most. On cool days where the ball doesn't travel as well, this is a particularly strong angle.

Irvin and Criswell have both pitched well so far this year. They are backed by bullpens that both rank top seven in the majors in FIP. 

These two offenses are mediocre at this point.

The Red Sox have seen 8 of their last 9 games stay under this total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Colorado Rockies both rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average. These are two weak offenses.

Colorado has consistently been one of the worst offenses away from Coors Field in the last few years, and this Rockies lineup has less depth than most of their teams in recent seasons. 

The Pirates are dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Feltner is only a mediocre pitcher, but the Pirates have been struggling badly at the plate.

Pittsburgh's pitching staff has been better than expected. The bullpen is a strong point for the Pirates. Falter has been pitching pretty well and I like his chances of pitching well in this matchup.

The Pirates have played 8 straight games that have stayed under this total.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. He is a top three under umpire in the majors. He consistently has very high strikeout/walk ratios.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees host the Detroit Tigers in an early Saturday showdown here. 

Clarke Schmidt has big splits on first/second half of the season. He is much better in the early part of the season. The same is true for Casey Mize. Schmidt has been much better pitching at home. Mize is actually better in his young career on the road.

The Tigers have seen only three of their last nine games go above this total. Four of the Yankees last five games have finished with six runs or fewer. 

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 11 mph from right center field during this game. The wind does play a role in games at this stadium.

Ryan Blakeney is a strike caller behind the plate. He has a strikeout/walk ratio this year of an insanely high 4.42. He is a plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are last in the majors in weighted on base average on the road at just .263. The A's are bottom five in the majors in wOBA at home, where they have been much worse offensively than on the road. 

Miami is also significantly worse against lefties than right handed pitchers. J.P. Sears is a bit inconsistent, but he's capable of shutting down some lineups. The Marlins lineup has been shut out many times this year.

The A's have a really good bullpen and a great closer. 

Oakland has seen 7 of its last 9 games finish at 7 total runs or fewer. I think we see another low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers pulled off a big comeback in the final seconds of regulation thanks to some heroics from Tyrese Maxey. They then won in overtime at Madison Square Garden. Now, the 76ers come home to play a huge game six down 3-2 in the series.

The pace in this series is very slow. The average pace is 91 possessions. With that pace, it takes 1.10 points per possession to get to this total. The defense has been much better in the last couple games of this series.

There is a lot of long term data showing that close out games in the NBA playoffs have been great to under bettors. That is especially the case if it is game six or game seven. Blindly betting playoff close out games in game 6 or game 7 to the under has an ROI of 16% in the last 15 years. This spot is 9-1 in the last 10 situations. 

This game fits the situation and I think both defenses will be ready to go in this key game on Thursday night. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres have scored 6 runs in two of their last three games. The Cincinnati Reds have scored 20 runs in their last four contests. I think this total of just 8 is set too low.

Graham Ashcraft has drastic splits between the first half of the season and the second half of the season during his career. He has an ERA of 5.35 in the first half of the season. He has an ERA of 3.94 in the second half of the season. 

Joe Musgrove has a 6.94 ERA and a 6.59 FIP on the season so far. Musgrove is giving up a bunch of hard contact, and his home run rate allowed is through the roof. The Reds have some power hitters and Elly De La Cruz is arguably the hottest hitter in baseball right now.

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire here and he is a top three over umpire in baseball. He consistently has low strikes called percentages and low strikeout/walk numbers.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game in this series had a total of 216.5. That total was a little too high, but now the adjustment has been too large in my opinion. The total was 210 in game three, and now we are 5.5 points lower.

New Orleans has shot the ball miserably in this series. Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum are far better players than they have looked in this series. The Thunder have a good defense, but it isn't as dominant as it has looked in this three game series.

Oklahoma City's offense has gotten rolling in game two and game three, and I think they will continue to score their points here. They have some matchup advantages in this one.

The pace of the games has been about 95 or 96 possessions. These two teams would only need to average 1.08 points per possession to go over this total with 95 possessions as the tempo of the game. 

The Pelicans are likely to regress positively toward their mean in this game. 

Oklahoma City was 3rd in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the regular season. New Orleans was 11th.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Logan Gilbert has a 1.87 ERA so far this year. Gilbert is a guy I feel is quite underrated. He pounds the strike zone and does a pretty good job inducing soft contact. Gilbert has a good track record against the Diamondbacks in a small sample size. He has a 1.049 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. He has been slightly better in day games than night games as well.

Brandon Pfaadt is a mediocre right handed pitcher. This is a pitcher's park though, and the Mariners offense hasn't been very good. 

The Diamondbacks offense is far better against lefties than right handed pitching.

Bill Miller is a top two or three under umpire in all of baseball. He consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and his strikes called percentage in general is always high.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Pablo Lopez has a 4.39 ERA but a solid 3.57 FIP and a 3.13 xFIP on the season thus far. Lopez has a tremendous history against this Angels lineup. The Angels lineup has a .091 average and a .131 weighted on base average against Lopez in 48 plate appearances. 

Reid Detmers has consistently been much better in the first half of the season than the second half throughout his career. He has been great all year up until a shaky start last time out against the Orioles. Baltimore has been hitting extremely well so I won't make too much of that. Detmers has good swing and miss stuff.

Dan Merzel is the umpire here and he has a very high strikeout percentage in his career. The under is 5-1 in his 6 games behind the plate this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have been red hot on offense of late. They started slow against lefties, but in the last couple weeks no one in the majors has a batter weighted on base average against lefties than Baltimore. The Orioles have a deep lineup, and they can put up runs in bunches.

The Athletics aren't good offensively, but they are better against lefties than right handed pitching. Cole Irvin is a below average left handed pitcher, and Oakland should get chances in this one. 

J.P. Sears isn't a bad pitcher, but he's backed by a thin bullpen, and he is up against a great lineup.

The wind is blowing out for this one and we have a low total at just 8.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Phoenix Suns offense has been terrible in the first two games of this series, but this totals adjustment is too large. The total in the first game was 213.5. We are down 5.5 points.

Phoenix was 10th in the NBA in offensive efficiency during the year. The Suns are likely to get better performances out of Booker and Beal in this game. The Suns defense is only average, and Minnesota can get into the paint against them on a consistent basis. 

The pace of the first two games has been quick enough that even average or slightly below average offensive efficiencies for the teams will equal an over. 

I expect this game to be a bit higher scoring and the total has moved down too much.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Brewers take on the Pirates Wednesday night in an NL Central clash.

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. Wegner is one of the two or three best over umpires in the majors. The over is 50-31 in his last 81 games behind home plate. In my umpire database, it consistently shows Wegner as having one of the lowest strikes called percentages and the lowest walk/strikeout ratio of long term umpires.

Both Wilson and Fleming have plenty of flaws as starters, and these bullpens are only middle of the pack. 

The Brewers offense has been top 8 in the majors so far this year. The Pirates lineup has a .403 weighted on base average against Wilson in 40 plate appearances.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Reid Detmers has a 1.19 ERA and a 1.62 FIP through four starts so far this season. Detmers has also held this Orioles lineup to a .161 batting average in 69 plate appearances. The Orioles are a middle of the road lineup so far this year against left handed pitching.

Albert Suarez pitches for the Orioles here, and the Angels lineup lacks depth and is struggling. They have scored one run or fewer in three of their last four games. Mike Trout is excellent, but there are a lot of guys in this lineup that are hard to trust. 

With Detmers looking elite and the Angels offense struggling, I think this total is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cole Ragans is an up and coming very good starting pitcher for the Royals. Ragans has a 1.93 ERA and a stellar 2.30 FIP in four starts so far this year. He has pitched a shutout in two of his last three starts. The Orioles are definitely a good offense, but they are just 17th in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Ragans should hold his own here against the O's.

Corbin Burnes has proven himself as an excellent starter. Burnes throws strikes and gets ahead in the count. He is particularly helped by umpires who give him the corner.

Ryan Blakeney is a top six or eight under umpire in the majors. His strikeout rate is top ten in the majors and he carries one of the four lowest OBP's for batters in his games in the last five years.

Cool temperatures and winds blowing in help this one too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Paul Blackburn starts here for the Oakland A's. Blackburn has a history of starting the season very strong. He has done exactly that this season. Blackburn hasn't allowed an earned run so far this season in three starts. Blackburn has been slightly better in day games than night games in his career too.

Steven Matz has drastic splits in his day/night starts. Matz has a 1.41 WHIP in his night starts, but an impressive 1.17 WHIP in his day starts. Matz has a 3.40 ERA in his career in day starts.

The A's are bottom eight in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Cardinals are bottom ten in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Luis Castillo is off to a slow start, but his advanced metrics suggest he is due for some major positive regression. Castillo has a 6.89 ERA, but he has a 3.38 FIP and 3.19 xFIP on the season thus far. Castillo has pitched tremendously against this Cubs lineup in his career too. The Cubs lineup here has a poor .244 average and .299 weighted on base average against him in 99 plate appearances.

Javier Assad has a 1.64 ERA in his first two starts, and he's going up agianst a Seattle lineup that ranks dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. He's a strike caller and one of the best under umpires in the majors. He consistently has very high strikeout/walk rate.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two teams who have nothing to play for at this point. In the very late regular season contests between two teams with nothing to play for, the over has been a really good bet in the last 15 years in the NBA. 

In the last three games of the year, when the home team has a win percentage of 50% or less and the road team has a win percentage of 57% or less, the over is hitting at about 57% in the last 15 years.

The Rockets haven't played a game where the combined total fell below 219 in any of their last 7 games. Six of the seven have been 223 points or higher.

There will be a lot of guys sit out, but I expect the two defenses to put very little effort in here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These teams played last night and the Clippers absolutely smashed the Suns. The final score wasn't indicative of how the game went at all. They coasted after getting a massive early lead.

The Suns have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to 106 points or fewer. The Clippers have scored 108 points or fewer in 6 of their last ten games. The Suns have scored 105 points or fewer in six of their last eight games.

Both teams are battling for position in the Western Conference playoff standings. The Suns really need wins to get up to sixth. The Clippers need to hold fourth.

These late season regular season games between two good teams have been great to under bettors in the last 15 years in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's Purdue vs. UConn in an epic final for Monday night. The two best teams in the country actually both got to the title this year. 

UConn has been so dominant along their run that they are deserving favorites, but I think Purdue will at least make them work hard here.

The UConn defense has been on another level of late. Some forget that Clingan missed quite a few games this year, and UConn's defense with Clingan is light years better than without Clingan. He is as good of a defensive big man as you will see in college basketball. 

Zach Edey is an excellent offensive player and a solid defensive player too. Edey will have to work harder to get his points here though than he has any other time this year. UConn has Clingan at 7'2 and the long Samson Johnson has been a great shot blocker too. 

UConn is number one in the country in near proximity defense (defending the rim). Purdue is 4th in the nation in defending without fouling. Purdue is also amazing on the defensive glass. 

UConn slowed the game down in a big way against Alabama. A game at just 63 possessions against Alabama is nearly unheard of. Purdue played to a slow pace against NC State as well.

The rims were tight in State Farm Stadium in the Final 4. Both of these offenses are very good, but I think the defenses are underrated too. The pace should be slow.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers host the Cleveland Cavs in a rare early Sunday start in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon. 

Both of these teams have had a good season up to this point. They are also both fighting for playoff positioning. 

This time of the year in the NBA, there can be some games that mean almost nothing to teams. There are also some games that mean a bunch to both teams. This is an example of a game that means a lot to both teams.

These two both prefer to play at a slow pace. There shouldn't many transition buckets in this contest. 

The Clippers have stepped up their defense in recent weeks, but their offense has been subpar. The Clippers have scored 108 points or fewer in five of their last eight games. They will be without Kawhi Leonard again in this one.

These late season regular season games between two good teams with plenty to play for have trended strongly toward the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers defense hasn't gotten enough credit in recent weeks. Purdue has allowed 68 points or fewer in regulation in six straight games. In four of those six games, they have allowed 0.98 points per possession or fewer. The Boilermakers are top 15 in the country in both defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling. 

NC State has actually played at a slower pace in their last few games than they have for the season overall. Burns is fantastic, but I do think Edey and company will make it tougher than average for him in facilitating the offense. 

Purdue's offense is excellent, but they haven't been shooting very well from long range of late. Purdue has benefited from Edey getting to the line a lot, but we have often seen the refs swallow the whistle a bit more in the Final Four and Championship games. That could allow NC State to slow Purdue enough.

This being a football stadium and the basketballs used in the NCAA Tournament being so unique are pluses as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers both have a lot to play for as far as positioning in the standings heading down the stretch of the regular season. The Western Conference standings are bunched tightly together. The Nuggets are tied with the Timberwolves at the top and they are both just one game ahead of the Thunder. The Clippers have been dropping and are still in danger of dropping out of the top four.

Late season games between two teams with this high of a win percentage have been great to under bettors. In fact, games with a total of 220 or higher with high win percentage teams late in the season are above 60% to the under.

Kawhi Leonard will miss this game and Jamal Murray is a game time decision. I expect both defenses to be highly motivated.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs and Denver Nuggets are both bottom seven in the league in tempo for the season. They are also both top ten in the league in defensive efficiency for the season overall.

Jamal Murray is a big offensive catalyst for the Nuggets. Denver has been struggling on offense without him. In their last two games, Denver has scored 97 and 98 points against the Suns and the Timberwolves.

Murray is listed as questionable for this game, but Michael Malone made it sound like on Saturday that Murray isn't ready to play quite yet and the team wants to play it safe with him.

The Cavs have had some of the lower scoring games in the league this year. 

This is a late season game between two teams with a very good record. These games have been great to under bettors in the last 15 years in the NBA. This is also an early start on Sunday and those have been solid unders in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* There are 362 teams in Division One college basketball. UConn ranks #1 in offensive efficiency out of those 362 teams. Illinois ranks #2 in offensive efficiency in the country. This should be a really fun contest.

Illinois just faced an Iowa State defense that has been better than UConn through the year on that end of the floor. The Fighting Illini could have put up quite a few more points if they hadn't been awful from the free throw line in that game.

Illinois was fortunate that Iowa State was putting up some terrible shots in that game. I don't think UConn will take those same low quality looks. This is a UConn team that is running some spectacular halfcourt sets, and this Illinois defense can't be trusted. Illinois is just 84th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Terrence Shannon has arguably been the best player in the country in the last few weeks, at least on the offensive end. Shannon has scored 25 points or more in seven straight games. He should get his again here. 

UConn has been willing to play quicker at times this year, and I think Illinois tries to get in transition a lot here. 

Both teams should be efficient on offense. Both teams are great on the offensive glass as well, so second chances are likely coming in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets have consistently been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this year. They are also 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are a great offensive team too, but their games have been lower than many expected because of the improved defense and a slower tempo.

Phoenix plays at about the league average in tempo. They are 13th in defensive efficiency for the year. 

This is a very late season game that means a lot to both teams. There are very strong under angles in the NBA for games between two teams with win percentages above 55% late in the regular season. 

Denver is now in the top spot in the Western Conference standings. The Nuggets are just ahead of Oklahoma City and Minnesota. 

Phoenix is tied for the Kings in 7th/8th, but they are only one game behind the Pelicans in the 5th spot. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers have been an under machine of late until last night. Indiana actually ranks top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Pacers lost a wild shootout against the Lakers last night, and I think they will give a better defensive effort here. 

The LA Clippers are 26th in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They have made a concerted effort to slow the pace down in recent weeks. The Clippers are off a bad defensive performance in a 121-107 loss to the 76ers.

This is a late season game between two teams with a winning record and with a high total. This has been a very strong system to the under in the last decade in the NBA. This game means plenty to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles are always happy to run. They are 9th in average possession length in the country. Marquette is excellent at causing turnovers and getting out and scoring points in transition. Colorado has been poor at taking care of the basketball, and their transition defense isn't good.

Marquette's offensive numbers are skewed too negative late in the season because Kolek was out. With him in the lineup they are a completely different offense.

Marquette's weakness on defense is getting defensive rebounds and protecting the basket. Lampkin and company for Colorado should be able to get plenty of second chances. 

Both teams are ranked outside the top 150 in transition defense. The pace here should be very quick. I think this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs offense has been on a whole different level in the last month. Gonzaga is a top four offense in the country in the last month. Ben Gregg has ignited the offense with his ability to stretch a defense. Nolan Hickman has heated up significantly from 3 point range as well. The Bulldogs get consistently solid contributions from Graham Ike on offense too.

Kansas scored 93 in their win over Samford. KJ Adams and Hunter Dickinson have been a nice duo in the post. The Jayhawks have struggled to defend the 3 point line this year, and Gonzaga has been on fire from long range of late.

The tempo here should be key. I expect both teams to run and push the pace. Gonzaga has sped up in key games in the last month. Kansas ranks 55th in average possession length too. A pace in the low 70's should be expected. 

Two good passing teams who want to run. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are 39th in the country in offensive efficiency. TCU is 44th in the country in offensive efficiency.

Both of these teams prefer to play quickly. They have been playing quite a few teams in their respective conferences who like to slow the game down, but in this one they'll face another fast paced team.

TCU gets out in transition as often as possible. They are in transition on 17% of their possessions on offense. That's extremely high and is top 10 in the country. TCU is 12th in offensive efficiency in transition. Utah State's transition defense is 223rd in the country. 

Utah State is in transition on 13% of their possessions (above average) and they are third in offensive efficiency in transition. The Aggies are up against a TCU defense that is just 189th in transition defense.

Both teams are good at getting to the free throw line. I would expect TCU to get a lot of second chance points here. Utah State's Osabor should get good looks in the post on offense too. 

Utah State hasn't seen many teams with high pressure defense, and TCU is known for their aggressiveness and willingness to run off steals.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs have to know they need to slow the pace down here to have any chance. This is a well coached smart team, so I expect them to work the clock down as much as they possibly can. Yale is 334th in the country in average possession length to begin with, so they are bottom 30 in the country in pace.

Yale also relies heavily on scoring inside the paint. They are up against an Auburn team who ranks 1st in the country in near proximity defense. Johni Broome and his elite shot blocking skills are a large reason for that statistic. Yale is likely to have serious trouble scoring here.

Auburn has two weaknesses on defense. They foul too often and they aren't great on the defensive glass. Yale is near the bottom of teams in the country in trips to the free throw line, and the Bulldogs aren't aggressive on the offensive glass. They are below average in offensive rebounding.

Auburn's offense relies heavily on getting to the free throw line and grabbing offensive boards. Yale is top 15 in the country in defensive rebounding and they are a solid 84th out of 362 teams in defending without fouling. 

The under has done fantastic in double digit spreads in the Round of 64 especially when the total is 140 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs push the pace to the extreme and love to use full court pressure. Bucky Ball from Bucky McMillan is a lot of fun, and it has been very successful. Samford is 6th in the country in average possession length so they are really quick. Samford is 16th in the nation in forced turnover percentage. 

Kansas is 141st in turnover percentage, so I think they will turn it over some and their transition defense has been subpar. Look for Samford to get some run out opportunities here. Kansas is 55th quickest in the country in average possession length. They should be able to get transition opportunities and burn the full court pressure some as well.

Hunter Dickinson is considered probable by beat writers. I think Kansas will score quite a few here even if Dickinson doesn't play, but if he does play there really isn't anyone on Samford's roster that can guard him. Kansas should go high low post and smoke Samford's interior defense.

Samford allowed 98 points to Purdue early in the season. They haven't played another top 75 team this year. Kansas has the talent to score a lot here, and Samford's unique style should get them plenty of points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays are first in the nation in defending without fouling. They also excel on the defensive glass. They are top 25 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. Creighton is slightly below average in tempo at #207 in the country.

Akron is 13th in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. That's important against a Creighton team that ranks top 20 in the nation 3 point frequency as a percentage of their points. Akron is 86th at defending without fouling. Akron is also 268th out of 362 in the nation in tempo, so they are pretty slow.

Round of 64 games with a large spread and high seeds vs. low seeds have been good under bets. That is especially true of totals that are average or higher. A total of in the low 140's fits that.

PPG Arena in Pittsburgh hosts this game and this has been a good under arena in the past. It's a spacious arena that has seen a lot of very low scoring games.

Akron should slow the pace down here and I think Creighton's defense will give Akron's offense a lot of trouble with their funnel to the mid range style.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Xavier Musketeers really try to push the pace. They are 34th in the country in overall tempo. They are up against a Georgia team that is 67th quickest in average possession length in the country. This one should be a track meet. 

Xavier's defense was strong early in the season, but it tailed off significantly in the latter part of the season. In 6 of their last 9 games, Xavier allowed 1.13 points per possession or more. They got much worse at defending the basket. 

Georgia struggled to get defensive rebounds, and Xavier should get a lot of second chance opportunities. 

Both offenses had a low turnover percentage and neither defense forces many turnovers. I think the efficiency numbers can be pretty high here.

The two teams both get to the free throw line a lot.

Early smaller postseason tournaments have trended toward the over in the last decade.

Take the over.