*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Wings take on the Chicago Sky in a noon eastern (11 am central) start. 

These rare early start times have played heavily toward the under in the WNBA. In games with a spread of 5.5 points or less in either direction and a total of 155 or higher (both fit this game), the under is at almost exactly 60% in the last 400 contests. 

Dallas ranks second to last in tempo in their last eight games. If you look at just the last five games, Dallas is last in offensive efficiency in the WNBA. Chicago is only 10th out of 12 teams in offensive efficiency.

Both teams saw their last game go comfortably over the total. The WNBA has shown the propensity to have games that were high for both teams followed up by an under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball. They have the best bullpen ERA and the best bullpen FIP. It is no fluke. The Guardians have a very deep bullpen. Bibee starts for Cleveland here, and he has great strikeout stuff. He is averaging 10.39 strikeouts per nine innings so far this year. 

Woo starts for the Mariners. He has a 1.07 ERA and a 2.38 FIP. He is walking only 0.53 batters per nine innings. 

The Guardians have scored three runs or fewer in five of their last ten games. The Mariners have allowed three runs or fewer in five of their last seven games.

The home plate umpire for this one is Doug Eddings. He has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in the majors over the last five years. Eddings has a strikeout/walk ratio of higher than 4 this year. He is a very pitcher friendly umpire.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Padres and Phillies both have pretty good pitchers going in this one, but there are several factors pointing to the over here. 

The weather calls for temperatures in the upper 80's at the beginning of the game. The winds are expected to be blowing out toward center field at about 11-13 mph. The ball should carry very well in Philadelphia today. Long term trends show that this is a stadium where the winds matter a lot.

Both of these teams rank in the top eight in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching so far this year. 

The home plate umpire here is a big over umpire. Edwin Moscoso is a newer umpire, but he has consistently had a very low called strikes and strikeout/walk ratio. The over has cashed in better than 60% of his games so far.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are easily last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Washington Nationals are second to last in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Both teams start a lefty in this one. Jesus Luzardo is an inconsistent lefty. There is always some risk with him because he is occasionally hit hard, but his stuff is great and this Nationals lineup is very weak against lefties. Mitchell Parker is a youngster who is off to a solid start with the Nationals. He hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in a game all season long. He has a 3.21 ERA on the season.

The Marlins have scored three runs in their last three games. Miami is averaging 2.1 runs per game in their last 12 contests. 

The Marlins bullpen struggled early in the year, but they have been the strength of the team in recent weeks. The Nationals bullpen is middle of the pack, but that gives them an advantage over this Miami offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers rank 26th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Washington Nationals rank 23rd in wOBA in the last 14 days. These lineups aren't great to begin with, and they come into this one in poor form. 

Jake Irvin has made huge improvements this year. What has been the big key? Irvin is walking far less people than he was in previous seasons. Irvin averaged 4.02 walks per nine innings last year, but he is walking only 1.68 batters per nine innings this year. He has a 3.14 ERA and a 3.16 FIP on the season. 

Reese Olson has excellent stuff and the scouts loved him before he got up to the big leagues. He is coming off one of his worst starts as a big leaguer. I like his chances of bouncing back. Comerica Park is clearly a pitchers park and it is even more so when the wind is blowing in as it is expected to be during this game. 

The weather here calls for winds blowing in at about 8-10 mph at the start of this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both the LA Angels and the Arizona Diamondbacks are much stronger against left handed pitching as compared to right handed pitching. They are both up against a left handed starter here.

The Angels are second in the majors against lefties. The DBacks are top ten as well.

Jose Suarez is getting a rare start here for the Angels. Suarez has been hit around in the bullpen this year, and he has shown no signs of being a good starter in the past. 

Jordan Montgomery has a 8.46 ERA and a .444 wOBA allowed in his home starts this year. Montgomery comes into this game in poor form.

Both of the bullpens are problems and when the starters go out there should be plenty more scoring chances.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Guardians offense has really hit left handed pitching well this year. They are tied for fifth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Guardians are up against Trevor Rogers in this one. Rogers has been a decent amount worse when pitching at home throughout his career. He also has a 7.36 ERA and a 5.98 FIP in his last six starts. He is inconsistent and is capable of being hit hard.

Carlos Carrasco was once a good starting pitcher, but he is far past his prime and his numbers this year aren't good. Carrasco has a 6.97 ERA and a 5.88 FIP in his last six starts. He has allowed 2.32 home runs per nine innings in that six game span. 

The Marlins offense isn't good, but they are definitely much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching.

Nate Tomlinson is the home plate umpire here, and the over is 30-15 in his last 45 games behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Matt Waldron has been on fire of late. Waldron has a 1.84 ERA and a 1.91 FIP in his last five starts. The knuckleball has been working very well. With a knuckeballer you always worry some about stolen bases from the opposition, but the Diamondbacks are near the bottom of all of baseball in stolen bases. 

Ryne Nelson has been far better away from Chase Field in his young career. Nelson has very good splits on the road. The Padres offense has been inconsistent this year.

The Diamondbacks are fantastic against lefties, but they are subpar against right handed pitching.

Tripp Gibson is the home plate umpire for this game. In the last five years, the games he has been under center for have gone 78-61 to the under (56.1% unders). He has a high strikeout/walk ratio and has been consistently a pitcher friendly umpire.

Petco Park is still one of the better parks in the majors for pitchers too. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland A's host the Seattle Mariners in the series finale on Thursday afternoon. 

Both teams start pitchers who are in good form and have a good track record against their opponent in this one. Sears has allowed a .204 batting average against the Mariners, and this Seattle offense has really been slumping of late. Woo has allowed a .125 batting average against the A's in a smaller sample size.

Sears has a 4.01 ERA and a 4.12 xERA on the season. Woo has a 1.30 ERA and a 2.08 xERA in his five starts so far this year.

It is a get away day game and there could be a key bat or two missing from the lineup here. 

The home plate umpire here is Mahrley and he is a solid strike caller which is a plus for the under as well. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves offense is better than they have shown in the last few weeks. Yes they are without Acuna, but this is still a very good offense and a deep lineup. There are several very good hitters on this team who have just been ice cold in the past month. I expect them to heat up.

Nick Pivetta pitches for the Red Sox. Pivetta has a much worse ERA at home with Boston than he does on the road. Pivetta gives up too many home runs at Fenway. The Braves lineup has torched him in the past too. In a large sample size, he has allowed a .371 wOBA against the Braves. 

Spencer Schwellenbach is a pretty good prospect, but he has been moved up to the majors very quickly. This is a big test for him.

The conditions at Fenway are great for an over. The temperature will be in the upper 80's with winds blowing out at about 10 mph. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jack Flaherty is having a really impressive season. His ERA is a solid 3.46, but his advanced metrics paint an even better picture. Flaherty has a 2.79 FIP and a 2.03 xFIP. He has pitched into some bad luck or his ERA would be even better. Flaherty has a 2.35 ERA and a 2.15 FIP in his last six starts. He has just six walks and 54 strikeouts in those six outings. 

The Rangers offense ranks in the bottom eight in the majors in the last couple weeks. They have been struggling in general and they are striking out a lot.

Dane Dunning is a decent right handed pitcher. Dunning has good numbers in a small sample against the Tigers lineup. Detroit's lineup is a slightly below average lineup according to the advanced metrics. 

I think this total is set too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two left handed starters are on the mound in this one. The Miami Marlins are second to last in the majors with a .271 weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The Texas Rangers are 26th out of 30 in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Andrew Heaney and Trevor Rogers are middle of the pack lefties, but against this lineups that makes for a pretty good matchup. Both Heaney and Rogers have very good numbers against the opposing offense in a small sample size.

The Rangers have been involved in a lot of low scoring games of late. The Rangers have seen 10 of their last 12 games stay under this total. 

The Marlins have scored 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last nine games. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners have underachieved on offense all season. They fired their hitting coach Friday and switched things up a bit. Now, they take on the LA Angels and Reid Detmers on Saturday.

Detmers has been absolutely crushed by the Mariners to the tune of a .431 weighted on base average in 77 plate appearances. Detmers is in terrible form of late too. He has a 9.49 ERA in his last five starts. The Mariners are better against lefties than right handed pitching.

The Angels offense has been better than expected without Mike Trout. The Angels also have one of the very worst bullpens in the majors. That has led to a lot of higher scoring games. Miller starts for the Mariners here and he has a poor 5.22 ERA in his last five starts.

The home plate umpire here is Mark Wegner. Wegner has one of the five lowest strikeout/walk ratios of any umpire in the last five years. He is a hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves were the best defense in the NBA in the regular season. Early in this series we didn't see a Minnesota defense that looked like a great defense. In game four, Minnesota finally ratcheted up the pressure and bothered Dallas. 

Minnesota held the Nuggets to 70 points and 90 points in Game 6 and Game 7 in elimination games. The Timberwolves coaching staff spoke a lot about the focus on defense before and after game four.

The later in the series it gets especially this deep in the playoffs, the tempo of the game typically slows down a bit. There is a lot on the line. 

Dallas has improved in a big way defensively late in the season. They have done a good job on Anthony Edwards in this series. 

Marc Davis is the main referee here and he is one of the best under refs in the NBA.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has cooled off a bit lately. This is still a top two or three offense in the majors at the very worst. They might still be the best. I expect them to bounce back sooner rather than later. 

David Peterson will come back from the injured list to start this game against the Dodgers. Peterson has allowed a .406 weighted on base average against this Dodgers lineup in his career. It's a very tough ask for him to come back after a long time and have success immediately against this group.

James Paxton is due for more regression to the mean. Paxton has 28 walks and 28 strikeouts on the season. He has a 3.49 ERA and a 5.56 FIP. He is 35.5 years old and he can't keep up the 85% strand rate he currently has. The Mets have a .425 wOBA against Paxton in his career. 

Both bullpens are bottom ten in the league in the last two weeks.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Angels have drastic splits this year on offense. The Angels are 17th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They are 4th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

The New York Yankees are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Yankees are also first in the majors in wOBA in road games. 

Nestor Cortes is a good lefty, but the Angels have been hitting lefties well and I think their power could make some noise here. 

Griffin Canning has pitched poorly especially of late for the Angels. In his last five starts, Canning has 14 walks and 16 strikeouts. He has a 2.93 ERA in those games, but his FIP is 5.47. He is stranded nearly ever runner on base. In the long run that isn't sustainable. 

The Angels bullpen is terrible and the Yankees should get chances against them too.

I like the matchups in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ranger Suarez is having a special season. Suarez has a 1.36 ERA and his expected ERA is an impressive 2.30. Suarez has had excellent control this year and he has been great at not giving up big innings. 

The Rockies lineup is much weaker this year than it has been in the past. Colorado's current lineup has really struggled against Suarez too. The Rockies lineup has a very low .241 weighted on base average against Suarez.

Cal Quantrill isn't a great pitcher, but he does a nice job mixing up his pitches and keeping batters guessing. Quantrill has a 3.59 ERA and a 3.88 expected ERA. He has a solid 3.91 ERA when pitching at home this year. 

Coors Field unders are tough, but the weather is better than normal this time of the year. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 15 mph during this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees have held opponents to two runs or fewer in 7 of their last 9 games. The Yankees have good starting pitching as well as a deep bullpen.

The San Diego Padres offense is very streaky. They have struggled in a lot of games of late. The Padres have been held scoreless in 4 of their last 9 contests. 

Dylan Cease has elite stuff and is capable of shutting down good lineups. He does have some blowup potential, but it is a big plus for him that Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here.

Marcus Stroman has been consistently pitching well this season, and the bullpen is in good shape heading into this one.

Doug Eddings has the highest strikes called percentage of any umpire in my umpire database over the last five years. Eddings has a ridiculously high strikeout/walk ratio of 3.96 so far this season. He's a clear positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Great American Ballpark is a top three hitters park in the majors, especially when it is warm in Cincinnati. The game time temperature is set to be 80 degrees.

Graham Ashcraft has drastic splits in his career. Ashcraft is far worse when pitching at GABP. He has a 3.93 ERA on the road in his career, but his home ERA is all the way up at 5.46. Ashcraft also has an ERA of 6.10 in May in his career. He has been far worse in the first half of the season than he has in the second half.

James Paxton has a 2.84 ERA and a 5.14 FIP. He also has a 5.55 expected ERA. He has a .242 batting average on balls in play allowed. He also has stranded 87% of runners on base. Neither of those are sustainable in the long run.

The Dodgers have the best offense in baseball. I expect them to score a lot on Ashcraft and the Reds bullpen. The Reds should do enough here in good hitting conditions at home.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago White Sox have been dreadful offensively on the season as a whole, but they are up to 19th in weighted on base average in the last 14 days. The Blue Jays are a better offense than they have shown this year. They have some solid hitters who have underachieved to this point.

These two teams are last and second to last in batting average on balls in play so far this year. They are due for some positive regression in the weeks to come.

Nastrini starts for the White Sox and he has been hit really hard in both Triple A and his two starts in the majors this year. Nastrini has a 7.88 ERA in two big league starts this year. In Triple A Nastrini has a 5.83 ERA and a 6.39 FIP in six starts. I have always taken the approach that if guys struggle to get outs in Triple A, I can't assume that they will be good right away in the majors.

Bassitt starts for the Blue Jays. He has a 5.03 ERA and a 5.00 expected ERA this year. He's 35 years old and is likely past his prime as a starting pitcher.

Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom three in the majors in FIP.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros lineup has heated up a lot of late. Houston has scored 7 runs or more in four of their last eight games. Houston is now third in the majors in weighted on base average. The Astros go up against Griffin Canning here. Canning has allowed a terrible .408 wOBA against this Astros lineup in his career. I think they'll get to him again here. 

The Angels bullpen is a bottom five bullpen in the league as well. Houston should have scoring opportunities all throughout this game.

Cristian Javier has a 3.23 ERA but a 4.29 FIP so far this year. He has allowed a batting average on balls in play of only .226 which should regress to the mean. The Angels are 12th in the majors in wOBA.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians have the best bullpen ERA in all of baseball. They are also first in FIP and SIERA as a bullpen. They are a tremendous bullpen. The Minnesota Twins bullpen is above average in ERA and third in the majors in SIERA.

Tanner Bibee is an above average starter who has good swing and miss stuff. The Twins are 18th in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. 

The Guardians are 24th in wOBA against right handed pitching on the year thus far. Paddack is certainly not an elite pitcher, but he has been pretty solid most of this year.

Minnesota is 25th in wOBA in the last 14 days. Cleveland is 28th in wOBA on offense in the last 14 days. 

The wind is expected to be blowing in for this one and that matters quite a bit in Cleveland.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Dodgers have the best offense in the majors. The Dodgers have a .342 weighted on base average on the season. With a trio of Mookie Betts, Shoehei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman leading the way the Dodgers have huge upside as an offense.

Frankie Montas pitches for the Reds here. Montas has been shelled by this Dodgers lineup. In 63 plate appearances, the Dodgers have a whopping ..534 wOBA against Montas. Montas is a below average right handed pitcher.

James Paxton pitches for the Dodgers here. Paxton has a 2.58 ERA on the year, but he has a FIP of 4.86 and an expected ERA of 5.89. Paxton has stranded 86.3% of runners on base this year, and that number will regress over time.

The Reds offense is quite a bit better against left handed pitching, and I think they'll get their scoring chances in this one too.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Cardinals offense disappointed for a very long time, but they have come to life of late. St. Louis is 28th on the year in weighted on base average, but they are 9th in the last week alone. The Cardinals have scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series against the Angels.

The Angels have seen 4 of their last 6 games get to at least 12 runs. Griffin Canning has a 5.75 ERA on the year and a expected ERA and FIP of about 5. 

Lance Lynn is well past his prime, and this Angels lineup has a .370 wOBA against him. 

The Angels bullpen has been terrible. They have the worst bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.21. St. Louis is a middle of the pack bullpen.

Larry Vanover is a bit of an over umpire through the years so that is a plus as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen has been one of the biggest disappointments of the season thus far. They are dead last in the majors in FIP allowed so far this year. Aaron Civale starts this game, and he has struggled badly this season. Civale has failed to complete 5 innings pitched in four straight starts. He has a 5.88 ERA on the season thus far. 

Nick Pivetta has a career 4.85 ERA pitching at Fenway Park. Pivetta also has a terrible 5.35 ERA in night games in his career (3.84 ERA in day games). This one will be under the lights at Fenway.

The wind is expected to be blowing straight out at Fenway at about 12 mph at the time of the first pitch in this one. Overs at Fenway Park with the wind blowing out at least 8 mph have an ROI of 11.1% since 2006.

I think both offenses will have a lot of scoring opportunities in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Zac Gallen has proven himself as one of the better right handed starting pitchers in the league. Gallen has really good command of multiple pitches, and he has the strikeout pitch that you need in today's baseball. 

Dean Kremer has consistently started the season terribly in March and April, but he isn't a bad pitcher overall. Kremer has a good career ERA in the month of May. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season throwing six innings of shutout baseball against the Reds. He has a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is consistently a very good under umpire. His strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio have been excellent for pitchers many years in a row now.

Relatively cool temperatures and a slight breeze in help a bit too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Nationals and Boston Red Sox meet at Fenway Park on Saturday afternoon. It will be a cool and somewhat breezy day in Boston for this one. A temperature of about 54 degrees with winds blowing in at 9 or 10 mph from right field toward home plate.

These conditions have been great to under bettors in the long run at Fenway. This is one of the parks where the winds matter the very most. On cool days where the ball doesn't travel as well, this is a particularly strong angle.

Irvin and Criswell have both pitched well so far this year. They are backed by bullpens that both rank top seven in the majors in FIP. 

These two offenses are mediocre at this point.

The Red Sox have seen 8 of their last 9 games stay under this total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Colorado Rockies both rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average. These are two weak offenses.

Colorado has consistently been one of the worst offenses away from Coors Field in the last few years, and this Rockies lineup has less depth than most of their teams in recent seasons. 

The Pirates are dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. Feltner is only a mediocre pitcher, but the Pirates have been struggling badly at the plate.

Pittsburgh's pitching staff has been better than expected. The bullpen is a strong point for the Pirates. Falter has been pitching pretty well and I like his chances of pitching well in this matchup.

The Pirates have played 8 straight games that have stayed under this total.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. He is a top three under umpire in the majors. He consistently has very high strikeout/walk ratios.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees host the Detroit Tigers in an early Saturday showdown here. 

Clarke Schmidt has big splits on first/second half of the season. He is much better in the early part of the season. The same is true for Casey Mize. Schmidt has been much better pitching at home. Mize is actually better in his young career on the road.

The Tigers have seen only three of their last nine games go above this total. Four of the Yankees last five games have finished with six runs or fewer. 

The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 11 mph from right center field during this game. The wind does play a role in games at this stadium.

Ryan Blakeney is a strike caller behind the plate. He has a strikeout/walk ratio this year of an insanely high 4.42. He is a plus for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are last in the majors in weighted on base average on the road at just .263. The A's are bottom five in the majors in wOBA at home, where they have been much worse offensively than on the road. 

Miami is also significantly worse against lefties than right handed pitchers. J.P. Sears is a bit inconsistent, but he's capable of shutting down some lineups. The Marlins lineup has been shut out many times this year.

The A's have a really good bullpen and a great closer. 

Oakland has seen 7 of its last 9 games finish at 7 total runs or fewer. I think we see another low scoring contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers pulled off a big comeback in the final seconds of regulation thanks to some heroics from Tyrese Maxey. They then won in overtime at Madison Square Garden. Now, the 76ers come home to play a huge game six down 3-2 in the series.

The pace in this series is very slow. The average pace is 91 possessions. With that pace, it takes 1.10 points per possession to get to this total. The defense has been much better in the last couple games of this series.

There is a lot of long term data showing that close out games in the NBA playoffs have been great to under bettors. That is especially the case if it is game six or game seven. Blindly betting playoff close out games in game 6 or game 7 to the under has an ROI of 16% in the last 15 years. This spot is 9-1 in the last 10 situations. 

This game fits the situation and I think both defenses will be ready to go in this key game on Thursday night. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Padres have scored 6 runs in two of their last three games. The Cincinnati Reds have scored 20 runs in their last four contests. I think this total of just 8 is set too low.

Graham Ashcraft has drastic splits between the first half of the season and the second half of the season during his career. He has an ERA of 5.35 in the first half of the season. He has an ERA of 3.94 in the second half of the season. 

Joe Musgrove has a 6.94 ERA and a 6.59 FIP on the season so far. Musgrove is giving up a bunch of hard contact, and his home run rate allowed is through the roof. The Reds have some power hitters and Elly De La Cruz is arguably the hottest hitter in baseball right now.

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire here and he is a top three over umpire in baseball. He consistently has low strikes called percentages and low strikeout/walk numbers.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game in this series had a total of 216.5. That total was a little too high, but now the adjustment has been too large in my opinion. The total was 210 in game three, and now we are 5.5 points lower.

New Orleans has shot the ball miserably in this series. Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum are far better players than they have looked in this series. The Thunder have a good defense, but it isn't as dominant as it has looked in this three game series.

Oklahoma City's offense has gotten rolling in game two and game three, and I think they will continue to score their points here. They have some matchup advantages in this one.

The pace of the games has been about 95 or 96 possessions. These two teams would only need to average 1.08 points per possession to go over this total with 95 possessions as the tempo of the game. 

The Pelicans are likely to regress positively toward their mean in this game. 

Oklahoma City was 3rd in offensive efficiency in the NBA in the regular season. New Orleans was 11th.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Logan Gilbert has a 1.87 ERA so far this year. Gilbert is a guy I feel is quite underrated. He pounds the strike zone and does a pretty good job inducing soft contact. Gilbert has a good track record against the Diamondbacks in a small sample size. He has a 1.049 WHIP in the first half of the season in his career. He has been slightly better in day games than night games as well.

Brandon Pfaadt is a mediocre right handed pitcher. This is a pitcher's park though, and the Mariners offense hasn't been very good. 

The Diamondbacks offense is far better against lefties than right handed pitching.

Bill Miller is a top two or three under umpire in all of baseball. He consistently has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and his strikes called percentage in general is always high.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Pablo Lopez has a 4.39 ERA but a solid 3.57 FIP and a 3.13 xFIP on the season thus far. Lopez has a tremendous history against this Angels lineup. The Angels lineup has a .091 average and a .131 weighted on base average against Lopez in 48 plate appearances. 

Reid Detmers has consistently been much better in the first half of the season than the second half throughout his career. He has been great all year up until a shaky start last time out against the Orioles. Baltimore has been hitting extremely well so I won't make too much of that. Detmers has good swing and miss stuff.

Dan Merzel is the umpire here and he has a very high strikeout percentage in his career. The under is 5-1 in his 6 games behind the plate this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have been red hot on offense of late. They started slow against lefties, but in the last couple weeks no one in the majors has a batter weighted on base average against lefties than Baltimore. The Orioles have a deep lineup, and they can put up runs in bunches.

The Athletics aren't good offensively, but they are better against lefties than right handed pitching. Cole Irvin is a below average left handed pitcher, and Oakland should get chances in this one. 

J.P. Sears isn't a bad pitcher, but he's backed by a thin bullpen, and he is up against a great lineup.

The wind is blowing out for this one and we have a low total at just 8.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Phoenix Suns offense has been terrible in the first two games of this series, but this totals adjustment is too large. The total in the first game was 213.5. We are down 5.5 points.

Phoenix was 10th in the NBA in offensive efficiency during the year. The Suns are likely to get better performances out of Booker and Beal in this game. The Suns defense is only average, and Minnesota can get into the paint against them on a consistent basis. 

The pace of the first two games has been quick enough that even average or slightly below average offensive efficiencies for the teams will equal an over. 

I expect this game to be a bit higher scoring and the total has moved down too much.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Brewers take on the Pirates Wednesday night in an NL Central clash.

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here. Wegner is one of the two or three best over umpires in the majors. The over is 50-31 in his last 81 games behind home plate. In my umpire database, it consistently shows Wegner as having one of the lowest strikes called percentages and the lowest walk/strikeout ratio of long term umpires.

Both Wilson and Fleming have plenty of flaws as starters, and these bullpens are only middle of the pack. 

The Brewers offense has been top 8 in the majors so far this year. The Pirates lineup has a .403 weighted on base average against Wilson in 40 plate appearances.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Reid Detmers has a 1.19 ERA and a 1.62 FIP through four starts so far this season. Detmers has also held this Orioles lineup to a .161 batting average in 69 plate appearances. The Orioles are a middle of the road lineup so far this year against left handed pitching.

Albert Suarez pitches for the Orioles here, and the Angels lineup lacks depth and is struggling. They have scored one run or fewer in three of their last four games. Mike Trout is excellent, but there are a lot of guys in this lineup that are hard to trust. 

With Detmers looking elite and the Angels offense struggling, I think this total is a little too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cole Ragans is an up and coming very good starting pitcher for the Royals. Ragans has a 1.93 ERA and a stellar 2.30 FIP in four starts so far this year. He has pitched a shutout in two of his last three starts. The Orioles are definitely a good offense, but they are just 17th in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Ragans should hold his own here against the O's.

Corbin Burnes has proven himself as an excellent starter. Burnes throws strikes and gets ahead in the count. He is particularly helped by umpires who give him the corner.

Ryan Blakeney is a top six or eight under umpire in the majors. His strikeout rate is top ten in the majors and he carries one of the four lowest OBP's for batters in his games in the last five years.

Cool temperatures and winds blowing in help this one too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Paul Blackburn starts here for the Oakland A's. Blackburn has a history of starting the season very strong. He has done exactly that this season. Blackburn hasn't allowed an earned run so far this season in three starts. Blackburn has been slightly better in day games than night games in his career too.

Steven Matz has drastic splits in his day/night starts. Matz has a 1.41 WHIP in his night starts, but an impressive 1.17 WHIP in his day starts. Matz has a 3.40 ERA in his career in day starts.

The A's are bottom eight in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Cardinals are bottom ten in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Luis Castillo is off to a slow start, but his advanced metrics suggest he is due for some major positive regression. Castillo has a 6.89 ERA, but he has a 3.38 FIP and 3.19 xFIP on the season thus far. Castillo has pitched tremendously against this Cubs lineup in his career too. The Cubs lineup here has a poor .244 average and .299 weighted on base average against him in 99 plate appearances.

Javier Assad has a 1.64 ERA in his first two starts, and he's going up agianst a Seattle lineup that ranks dead last in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here. He's a strike caller and one of the best under umpires in the majors. He consistently has very high strikeout/walk rate.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* These are two teams who have nothing to play for at this point. In the very late regular season contests between two teams with nothing to play for, the over has been a really good bet in the last 15 years in the NBA. 

In the last three games of the year, when the home team has a win percentage of 50% or less and the road team has a win percentage of 57% or less, the over is hitting at about 57% in the last 15 years.

The Rockets haven't played a game where the combined total fell below 219 in any of their last 7 games. Six of the seven have been 223 points or higher.

There will be a lot of guys sit out, but I expect the two defenses to put very little effort in here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These teams played last night and the Clippers absolutely smashed the Suns. The final score wasn't indicative of how the game went at all. They coasted after getting a massive early lead.

The Suns have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to 106 points or fewer. The Clippers have scored 108 points or fewer in 6 of their last ten games. The Suns have scored 105 points or fewer in six of their last eight games.

Both teams are battling for position in the Western Conference playoff standings. The Suns really need wins to get up to sixth. The Clippers need to hold fourth.

These late season regular season games between two good teams have been great to under bettors in the last 15 years in the NBA.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's Purdue vs. UConn in an epic final for Monday night. The two best teams in the country actually both got to the title this year. 

UConn has been so dominant along their run that they are deserving favorites, but I think Purdue will at least make them work hard here.

The UConn defense has been on another level of late. Some forget that Clingan missed quite a few games this year, and UConn's defense with Clingan is light years better than without Clingan. He is as good of a defensive big man as you will see in college basketball. 

Zach Edey is an excellent offensive player and a solid defensive player too. Edey will have to work harder to get his points here though than he has any other time this year. UConn has Clingan at 7'2 and the long Samson Johnson has been a great shot blocker too. 

UConn is number one in the country in near proximity defense (defending the rim). Purdue is 4th in the nation in defending without fouling. Purdue is also amazing on the defensive glass. 

UConn slowed the game down in a big way against Alabama. A game at just 63 possessions against Alabama is nearly unheard of. Purdue played to a slow pace against NC State as well.

The rims were tight in State Farm Stadium in the Final 4. Both of these offenses are very good, but I think the defenses are underrated too. The pace should be slow.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers host the Cleveland Cavs in a rare early Sunday start in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon. 

Both of these teams have had a good season up to this point. They are also both fighting for playoff positioning. 

This time of the year in the NBA, there can be some games that mean almost nothing to teams. There are also some games that mean a bunch to both teams. This is an example of a game that means a lot to both teams.

These two both prefer to play at a slow pace. There shouldn't many transition buckets in this contest. 

The Clippers have stepped up their defense in recent weeks, but their offense has been subpar. The Clippers have scored 108 points or fewer in five of their last eight games. They will be without Kawhi Leonard again in this one.

These late season regular season games between two good teams with plenty to play for have trended strongly toward the under in the long run.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers defense hasn't gotten enough credit in recent weeks. Purdue has allowed 68 points or fewer in regulation in six straight games. In four of those six games, they have allowed 0.98 points per possession or fewer. The Boilermakers are top 15 in the country in both defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling. 

NC State has actually played at a slower pace in their last few games than they have for the season overall. Burns is fantastic, but I do think Edey and company will make it tougher than average for him in facilitating the offense. 

Purdue's offense is excellent, but they haven't been shooting very well from long range of late. Purdue has benefited from Edey getting to the line a lot, but we have often seen the refs swallow the whistle a bit more in the Final Four and Championship games. That could allow NC State to slow Purdue enough.

This being a football stadium and the basketballs used in the NCAA Tournament being so unique are pluses as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers both have a lot to play for as far as positioning in the standings heading down the stretch of the regular season. The Western Conference standings are bunched tightly together. The Nuggets are tied with the Timberwolves at the top and they are both just one game ahead of the Thunder. The Clippers have been dropping and are still in danger of dropping out of the top four.

Late season games between two teams with this high of a win percentage have been great to under bettors. In fact, games with a total of 220 or higher with high win percentage teams late in the season are above 60% to the under.

Kawhi Leonard will miss this game and Jamal Murray is a game time decision. I expect both defenses to be highly motivated.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs and Denver Nuggets are both bottom seven in the league in tempo for the season. They are also both top ten in the league in defensive efficiency for the season overall.

Jamal Murray is a big offensive catalyst for the Nuggets. Denver has been struggling on offense without him. In their last two games, Denver has scored 97 and 98 points against the Suns and the Timberwolves.

Murray is listed as questionable for this game, but Michael Malone made it sound like on Saturday that Murray isn't ready to play quite yet and the team wants to play it safe with him.

The Cavs have had some of the lower scoring games in the league this year. 

This is a late season game between two teams with a very good record. These games have been great to under bettors in the last 15 years in the NBA. This is also an early start on Sunday and those have been solid unders in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* There are 362 teams in Division One college basketball. UConn ranks #1 in offensive efficiency out of those 362 teams. Illinois ranks #2 in offensive efficiency in the country. This should be a really fun contest.

Illinois just faced an Iowa State defense that has been better than UConn through the year on that end of the floor. The Fighting Illini could have put up quite a few more points if they hadn't been awful from the free throw line in that game.

Illinois was fortunate that Iowa State was putting up some terrible shots in that game. I don't think UConn will take those same low quality looks. This is a UConn team that is running some spectacular halfcourt sets, and this Illinois defense can't be trusted. Illinois is just 84th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

Terrence Shannon has arguably been the best player in the country in the last few weeks, at least on the offensive end. Shannon has scored 25 points or more in seven straight games. He should get his again here. 

UConn has been willing to play quicker at times this year, and I think Illinois tries to get in transition a lot here. 

Both teams should be efficient on offense. Both teams are great on the offensive glass as well, so second chances are likely coming in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets have consistently been one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA this year. They are also 10th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are a great offensive team too, but their games have been lower than many expected because of the improved defense and a slower tempo.

Phoenix plays at about the league average in tempo. They are 13th in defensive efficiency for the year. 

This is a very late season game that means a lot to both teams. There are very strong under angles in the NBA for games between two teams with win percentages above 55% late in the regular season. 

Denver is now in the top spot in the Western Conference standings. The Nuggets are just ahead of Oklahoma City and Minnesota. 

Phoenix is tied for the Kings in 7th/8th, but they are only one game behind the Pelicans in the 5th spot. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers have been an under machine of late until last night. Indiana actually ranks top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last ten games. The Pacers lost a wild shootout against the Lakers last night, and I think they will give a better defensive effort here. 

The LA Clippers are 26th in the NBA in tempo in the last ten games. They have made a concerted effort to slow the pace down in recent weeks. The Clippers are off a bad defensive performance in a 121-107 loss to the 76ers.

This is a late season game between two teams with a winning record and with a high total. This has been a very strong system to the under in the last decade in the NBA. This game means plenty to both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles are always happy to run. They are 9th in average possession length in the country. Marquette is excellent at causing turnovers and getting out and scoring points in transition. Colorado has been poor at taking care of the basketball, and their transition defense isn't good.

Marquette's offensive numbers are skewed too negative late in the season because Kolek was out. With him in the lineup they are a completely different offense.

Marquette's weakness on defense is getting defensive rebounds and protecting the basket. Lampkin and company for Colorado should be able to get plenty of second chances. 

Both teams are ranked outside the top 150 in transition defense. The pace here should be very quick. I think this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs offense has been on a whole different level in the last month. Gonzaga is a top four offense in the country in the last month. Ben Gregg has ignited the offense with his ability to stretch a defense. Nolan Hickman has heated up significantly from 3 point range as well. The Bulldogs get consistently solid contributions from Graham Ike on offense too.

Kansas scored 93 in their win over Samford. KJ Adams and Hunter Dickinson have been a nice duo in the post. The Jayhawks have struggled to defend the 3 point line this year, and Gonzaga has been on fire from long range of late.

The tempo here should be key. I expect both teams to run and push the pace. Gonzaga has sped up in key games in the last month. Kansas ranks 55th in average possession length too. A pace in the low 70's should be expected. 

Two good passing teams who want to run. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are 39th in the country in offensive efficiency. TCU is 44th in the country in offensive efficiency.

Both of these teams prefer to play quickly. They have been playing quite a few teams in their respective conferences who like to slow the game down, but in this one they'll face another fast paced team.

TCU gets out in transition as often as possible. They are in transition on 17% of their possessions on offense. That's extremely high and is top 10 in the country. TCU is 12th in offensive efficiency in transition. Utah State's transition defense is 223rd in the country. 

Utah State is in transition on 13% of their possessions (above average) and they are third in offensive efficiency in transition. The Aggies are up against a TCU defense that is just 189th in transition defense.

Both teams are good at getting to the free throw line. I would expect TCU to get a lot of second chance points here. Utah State's Osabor should get good looks in the post on offense too. 

Utah State hasn't seen many teams with high pressure defense, and TCU is known for their aggressiveness and willingness to run off steals.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Yale Bulldogs have to know they need to slow the pace down here to have any chance. This is a well coached smart team, so I expect them to work the clock down as much as they possibly can. Yale is 334th in the country in average possession length to begin with, so they are bottom 30 in the country in pace.

Yale also relies heavily on scoring inside the paint. They are up against an Auburn team who ranks 1st in the country in near proximity defense. Johni Broome and his elite shot blocking skills are a large reason for that statistic. Yale is likely to have serious trouble scoring here.

Auburn has two weaknesses on defense. They foul too often and they aren't great on the defensive glass. Yale is near the bottom of teams in the country in trips to the free throw line, and the Bulldogs aren't aggressive on the offensive glass. They are below average in offensive rebounding.

Auburn's offense relies heavily on getting to the free throw line and grabbing offensive boards. Yale is top 15 in the country in defensive rebounding and they are a solid 84th out of 362 teams in defending without fouling. 

The under has done fantastic in double digit spreads in the Round of 64 especially when the total is 140 or higher.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs push the pace to the extreme and love to use full court pressure. Bucky Ball from Bucky McMillan is a lot of fun, and it has been very successful. Samford is 6th in the country in average possession length so they are really quick. Samford is 16th in the nation in forced turnover percentage. 

Kansas is 141st in turnover percentage, so I think they will turn it over some and their transition defense has been subpar. Look for Samford to get some run out opportunities here. Kansas is 55th quickest in the country in average possession length. They should be able to get transition opportunities and burn the full court pressure some as well.

Hunter Dickinson is considered probable by beat writers. I think Kansas will score quite a few here even if Dickinson doesn't play, but if he does play there really isn't anyone on Samford's roster that can guard him. Kansas should go high low post and smoke Samford's interior defense.

Samford allowed 98 points to Purdue early in the season. They haven't played another top 75 team this year. Kansas has the talent to score a lot here, and Samford's unique style should get them plenty of points.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Creighton Blue Jays are first in the nation in defending without fouling. They also excel on the defensive glass. They are top 25 in the country in defensive rebounding percentage. Creighton is slightly below average in tempo at #207 in the country.

Akron is 13th in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. That's important against a Creighton team that ranks top 20 in the nation 3 point frequency as a percentage of their points. Akron is 86th at defending without fouling. Akron is also 268th out of 362 in the nation in tempo, so they are pretty slow.

Round of 64 games with a large spread and high seeds vs. low seeds have been good under bets. That is especially true of totals that are average or higher. A total of in the low 140's fits that.

PPG Arena in Pittsburgh hosts this game and this has been a good under arena in the past. It's a spacious arena that has seen a lot of very low scoring games.

Akron should slow the pace down here and I think Creighton's defense will give Akron's offense a lot of trouble with their funnel to the mid range style.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Xavier Musketeers really try to push the pace. They are 34th in the country in overall tempo. They are up against a Georgia team that is 67th quickest in average possession length in the country. This one should be a track meet. 

Xavier's defense was strong early in the season, but it tailed off significantly in the latter part of the season. In 6 of their last 9 games, Xavier allowed 1.13 points per possession or more. They got much worse at defending the basket. 

Georgia struggled to get defensive rebounds, and Xavier should get a lot of second chance opportunities. 

Both offenses had a low turnover percentage and neither defense forces many turnovers. I think the efficiency numbers can be pretty high here.

The two teams both get to the free throw line a lot.

Early smaller postseason tournaments have trended toward the over in the last decade.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks have been a different team under Doc Rivers. Milwaukee has slowed the pace down. Overall, they have improved at least somewhat on defense as well. Milwaukee's offense is only 18th in efficiency in the last 5 games though.

Middleton is expected back for this game for the Bucks. Giannis is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Middleton back is a positive, but it might take him some time to get back in the swing of things.

Phoenix is playing at a slightly slower than league average pace. The Suns are a little above average for the year in defensive efficiency.

This is a very early Sunday game. It's a noon local start time. Early Sunday unders have done very well in the NBA in the past 15 years. 

Take the under. 

*3 star Play Under* The Duquesne Dukes have played much better defense down the stretch, and that has led them to their success of late. Duquesne has also slowed the tempo down drastically from what they played at early in the season. The Dukes have allowed 1 point per possession or fewer in 6 of their last 8 games. They have played four of their last six games to a pace of 63 possessions or fewer.

St. Bonaventure is playing slower paced games of late too. They got to just 61 possessions against La Salle in their first tournament game and Thursday's double OT win over Loyola was just 78 possessions in 2 overtimes.

The first game between these two was 54-50, so they are more than capable of a rock fight. This one is win or go home.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marist Red Foxes goal is definitely to slow the game down and make it an ugly low scoring contest. They did this in a 58-55 win over Fairfield two weeks ago. 

Fairfield puts up a lot of 3 point jumpers. In a tough shooting venue that can be dangerous. Marist is the number one 3 point defense in the conference too. On offense, Marist is 320th in offensive efficiency in the country. 

Neither team gets to the free throw line very much on average.

Both teams had low scoring contests in their first games in this tournament.

Boardwalk Hall is 40-22 to the under now. This gym has been a huge under gym. The old large building has difficult shooting backdrops and that has led to some terrible shooting percentages in this tournament. 

*4 Star Play Under* Quinnipiac and St. Peter's meet in the MAAC semifinals. These two teams played higher scoring games in the regular season, but this is a very high total for a St. Peter's game. This game also means a whole lot more than their first two games did. Only two more wins and these teams could be in the NCAA Tournament.

Boardwalk Hall is 40-22 to the under now. This gym has been a huge under gym. The old large building has difficult shooting backdrops and that has led to some terrible shooting percentages in this tournament. 

I think this one slows down and the offensive efficiencies are lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Rider and St. Peter's meet in a MAAC Conference Tournament game on Thursday night. 

This is the first game of the tournament for both of these teams. These two teams played twice in the regular season and the two games finished with 117 and 119 points. 

St. Peter's is among the best in the country at slowing a game down. They are also atrocious on offense and great on defense. St. Peter's is 348th in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 50th on defense.

Rider protects the basket very well, and St. Peter's hasn't been able to count on the outside shot.

Boardwalk Hall has been great to under bettors. The under is 36-23 in games played here and the margins have been significant.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Providence Friars beat Georgetown on Wednesday and will take on the Creighton Blue Jays at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night. 

The regular season meetings between these two were 91-87 (OT) and 69-60. Shot Quality believes based on the quality of shots taken the OT game should have finished only 152 points after overtime. The other game they believe should have finished with 137 points.

Creighton does a great job defensively taking away the 3 point shot and the shot at the basket. They are funneling the opposition into taking mid range jumpers. The Blue Jays are first in the nation at defending without fouling.

Providence is 17th in defensive efficiency. They are top 40 in the nation at defending without fouling.

Madison Square Garden saw all 3 games go under the total yesterday. The under is about 57.5% at MSG in CBB games in the past decade. It's a large sample size as well. This is a good under venue.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas have really been good on defense of late. Central Michigan gave up just 0.98 points per possession inside the MAC. They were first ranked in overall defensive efficiency. They were first in two point defense and second in three point defense in the conference. On offense, the Chippewas were 10th in offensive efficiency and 11th in effective field goal percentage offense. They figured out they have to win games ugly, and they really slowed down their pace late in the season. 

Bowling Green has largely played to the pace of their opponent during this season.

The Falcons and Chippewas played two games in the regular season. Both of them went into overtime. The two games were 124 and 112 at the end of regulation. Even with overtime the one finished at 122 points. The other went into double overtime and finished with 153 points.

This one is played at the Cleveland Cavaliers arena- Rocket Mortgage in Cleveland. Unders in this arena have hit 56.3% of the time.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The La Salle Explorers have won five of their last seven games. La Salle went much of the season struggling with no identity, but the Explorers have found a little bit of something of late. I still don't think this is a good team on the whole, but they are slowing the game down and playing much better defense than they were. 

La Salle averaged 66.8 possessions per game for the season, but in 4 of their last 5 games they have played to a pace of 63 possessions or slower. The Explorers have also allowed 1.02 points per possession or fewer in four of their last five games. 

St. Bonaventure is 271st in overall pace. They aren't likely to push the tempo here. The Bonnies defend the 3 point shot pretty well, and La Salle takes a bunch of shots from long range. 

A neutral site where the games were very low scoring on day one in this tournament. A win or go home game with a slow projected pace. I think this total is too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Pioneers have been a high scoring team all. It makes sense that a total would be set high in a game between them and South Dakota State. 

I still think the circumstances surrounding this game make this under have value.

This is a massive game where the winner will go to the NCAA Tournament. The stakes are far higher than the regular season meetings between these two. Final games in conference tournaments have been very good under bets in the last decade. That has been especially true when it is smaller college matchups. A win in this game is the only chance these teams have of getting to the NCAA Tournament.

Denver's star scorer Tommy Bruner is Mr. Everything for this team, but he is playing through an injury. He has 8 turnovers in two games in the Summit League Tournament.

Denver and South Dakota State have both played at a far slower pace in their games in this tournament than they did against their same opponents in the regular season. I think the pace slows down in this matchup too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Iona Gaels are without Greg Gordon, who was their top offensive player before he left the team a few weeks. Iona's offensive efficiency numbers have dipped quite a bit without Gordon. 

Manhattan has been terrible offensively all season. They are 341st in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Jaspers almost never get to the line, and one thing they do well on defense is defend without fouling.

This game is played at Boardwalk  Hall in Atlantic City. A little over 60% of games played here have gone under the closing total. This is a tough gym for shooters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Pelicans are much better on defense than most believe. They are a team that is middle of the pack in tempo in the NBA. 

Atlanta is without Trae Young here. Without Young, Atlanta is a completely different team without Young. They are better defensively, and they are far worse on offense. Additionally, Atlanta is playing at a much slower pace. In Atlanta's last seven games (the games without Young) they are 23rd in the NBA in tempo. In those seven games, Atlanta is third in the NBA in defensive efficiency too. 

I think this total is too high given the situation for Atlanta and the underrated nature of the Pelicans defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UNC Wilmington Seahawks and Towson Tigers meet in a huge CAA quarterfinal matchup in Washington DC. 

Both of these teams play at a very slow pace. The two games between them in the regular season were 59 possessions and 62 possessions. That second game that was 62 possessions was a foul fest late to push the scoring up and the possessions up as well. 

Towson turns the ball over too much and isn't a good shooting team. UNC Wilmington has a great player in White, but they lean too much on him.

This is a gym where the under has done amazing in the last few years. There have been some ugly shooting performances. With the pace at a very slow rate, unless the refs get way too involved here I see this one staying low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Dons beat the Portland Pilots badly in both regular season meetings. The first game flew over this total. The second game barely stayed under despite a pace of 79 possessions (extremely quick). The shooting numbers in that game were far lower than normal.

Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site, believes both games in the regular season should have topped this posted total by more than 10 points. 

Portland is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Pilots have no answer to the Dons half court offense. San Francisco has picked up their pace through the year. Portland can't stall as much when playing from behind.

Orleans Arena has been a good over gym with 55% of games going over in a large sample.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri Tigers have just been atrocious down the stretch, and it has mainly been their defense that has been awful. Missouri has allowed an average of 89 points per game in their last four games. They are dead last in the SEC in defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling during conference play. 

LSU is 52nd in the nation in FTA/FGA on the season. They have exploded for very high point totals several times this year. Their defense has put teams on the line quite a bit, and Missouri does shoot 80.5% from the free throw line in conference play.

This is a final regular season game that means little to either team in my opinion. The final games of the year between two mediocre or poor teams have trended strongly toward the over in the last decade or so.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stony Brook Seawolves and Northeastern Huskies played twice during the regular season and the final totals in those games were 114 and 115 points. 

Northeastern plays at a very slow pace. They are 328th in average possession length in the country. The Huskies did miss some players at times during the year, but this offense is only 11th in the CAA in efficiency. 

Stony Brook is 215th in average possession length, so they shouldn't be pushing the pace either. 

This is a win or go home game and is being played in gym where the under has done extremely well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Houston has the number one ranked defense in the country, and it hasn't been very close. They contest every shot and are very good at getting back on defense. 

Kansas torched this elite defense in the first half of their first meeting. I don't think Houston will let that happen again. Houston is giving up just 0.83 points per possession in their Big 12 home games. They come home here and I expect Sampson's group to be much better on defense.

Kansas is much more efficient on defense than offense. The Jayhawks have gotten much better in half court defense through the season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors host the Le Moyne Dolphins in a NEC Tournament game on Saturday afternoon. These two teams played twice in the regular season. The final totals in those games were 128 and 116 points. Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site, said those final totals should have been 131 and 124 based on the quality of shots taken. All numbers were solidly below this total.

This is a win or go home game and that typically slows the pace down some. These two teams are first and second in the league in defensive efficiency in the last six games. I think the offenses will have a tough time finding open looks.

Merrimack's defensive weakness is getting defensive rebounds, but Le Moyne is poor on the offensive boards. Le Moyne has sometimes struggled on defense against tall frontcourts, but Merrimack doesn't have too much height.

I think we'll see a third game between these two stay under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have been scuffling on offense of late. Their season average is 1.14 points per possession on offense, but in six of their last seven games they have put up 1.06 points per possession or fewer. Their defense has stepped up at the same time though. San Diego State has allowed 0.99 points per possession or fewer in five of their last seven games. They have also slowed their tempo a bit of late.

Boise State is second slowest in the Mountain West in average possession length. The Broncos are first in the nation in defensive rebounding. San Diego State should have a lot more trouble getting second chance points than they normally do. 

The last six games between these two teams have finished at these combined totals:

79 points, 115 points, 105 points, 124 points, 126 points, and 133 points. The game earlier this year that finished at 133 points had quite a bit of fouling late in the game too.

A late regular season game that means a bunch to both teams. I think the defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tyson Acuff is the eighth leading scorer in the nation. Acuff has missed the last two games for Eastern Michigan. This is a relatively quick turnaround with them playing on Friday here after their Tuesday contest where he was out with an ankle injury. Acuff is questionable here. I expect him to either miss the game or be far less than 100%.

Central Michigan's defense has been quietly dominating, especially on their home court. They have given up only 0.978 points per possession at home in conference play. They have allowed 63 points or fewer in 6 of their last 7 home games. 

Eastern Michigan is 325th in offensive efficiency in the country, and most of those numbers are with a healthy Acuff. Central Michigan is 320th in the nation in offensive efficiency too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles were the best defense in the OVC this year. They had a brief period in the middle of the season where they struggled, but in their last three games the best defense has showed up again. In the last three contests, Morehead State held all 3 opponents to 0.88 points per possession or fewer. 

SIU Edwardsville won over Morehead State 61-48 at home earlier this year. That was a slugfest where the tempo was very slow. SIU Edwardsville toyed with running late in the regular season, but they played very slowly yesterday in their win against E Illinois. I think they slow it down again here. Morehead State is a bottom ten team in the country in tempo, so they should be happy to move slowly too.

This game is at Ford Center in Evansville. This is a large 11,000 seat arena. Shooters have had a hard time adjusting to this. The under is 25-18 in OVC Tournament games here. The average margin toward the under is an impressive 4.35 points. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are two teams who prefer to play at a slow tempo. 

The two regular season games between these two finished at 145 points and 112 points. Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site that measures the quality of shots taken, believes those two games should have finished with 131 and 120 points based on the quality of shots taken.

This is win or go home and that changes the way teams play quite a bit.

Arch Madness in the MVC is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is a huge hockey arena. These teams aren't accustomed to playing huge arenas like this and we have seen a bunch of bad shooting performances from teams in this tournament. The under is a whopping 91-50 in the last 141 MVC Conference Tournament games. That's a long term 64.5% angle.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Illinois Leathernecks have a great defense for what Tennessee State likes to do. The Tigers want to attack the basket early and often. Western Illinois has an elite shot blocker in Cisse in the paint lurking at all times. Western Illinois ranks top five in the nation in defense against shots attacking the rim. 

Western Illinois offensively settles for far too many mid range jumpers. They have gone through long scoring droughts throughout the season. 

Tenn State relies on getting to the line a lot, but Western Illinois has been excellent this year at defending without fouling.

This game is at Ford Center in Evansville. This is a large 11,000 seat arena. Shooters have had a hard time adjusting to this. The under is 25-18 in OVC Tournament games here. The average margin toward the under is an impressive 4.35 points. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament tips off Thursday afternoon with Murray State and Missouri State. 

The two regular season meetings were a total of 154 and 130 points. Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site, believes based on the quality of shots taken those games should have finished with 134 and 133 points. 

This is win or go home and that changes the way teams play quite a bit.

Arch Madness in the MVC is played at Enterprise Center in St. Louis. This is a huge hockey arena. These teams aren't accustomed to playing huge arenas like this and we have seen a bunch of bad shooting performances from teams in this tournament. The under is a whopping 91-50 in the last 141 MVC Conference Tournament games. That's a long term 64.5% angle.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Le Moyne Dolphins have really put together an ultra impressive defensive run at the end of the season. Le Moyne has allowed 0.97 points per possession or fewer in six of their last seven games. In four of those games, they have allowed less than 0.90 points per possession. That's some excellent defense and the trend lines are all pointing upward for their defensive performance.

Fairleigh Dickinson plays very quickly, but they are inefficient on offense. They scored just 63 and 68 points in their games against Le Moyne this year. Those two games in the regular season both stayed well under this posted total.

This is a win or go home game. I think the pace slows down just a bit here. Fairleigh Dickinson relies on free throws to score quite a bit on offense, and Le Moyne is excellent at defending without fouling. Le Moyne is 349th in the country in FTA/FGA on offense too, so there shouldn't be too many free throws in general in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos host the Nevada Wolf Pack on Tuesday night in this key Mountain West game. Both of these teams have a lot to play for in this one. 

Boise State is tied at the top of the Mountain West Conference with Utah State. Nevada is tied with San Diego State and UNLV one game back. 

Boise State is second slowest in the Mountain West in average possession length. The Broncos are also 31st in defensive efficiency. They are elite at defensive rebounding. In the first meeting between these two teams, Nevada got just two offensive rebounds. 

Nevada is 38th in the nation in defensive efficiency. On offense, Nevada has been a little too reliant on getting to the line. Leon Rice and his Boise State teams are usually solid at defending without fouling.

Very late season games where both teams have a good winning percentage and there is a lot on the line have trended under in the long term.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I admit that betting a Queens under isn't comfortable. Queens is a fast paced team who has had a bunch of high scoring games. This is a very high total though and I think it is too high.

Stetson has been fantastic at slowing the pace down against Queens though. In three games against Queens in the last two season, the final totals have been 136, 150, and 158 points. 

Also, Queens has slowed their pace down and been an under team in the A Sun Tournament games the last couple years. They have had all their three conference tournament games go more than 15 points under the total. Their pace has slowed down quite a bit in those win or go home tournament contests.

Stetson is the best in the league at not fouling and Queens typically needs to get to the line to be efficient on offense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first meeting between these two teams hit 167 total points. UMBC shot it very well from 3, and Binghamton dominated the offensive glass to stay close in that one.

Binghamton should get a lot of second chance points again here. UMBC is a bottom 30 team in the country in second chance conversion percentage allowed. 

UMBC puts up a lot of shots from long range, and they got a bunch of open looks against Binghamton before. They should get those again. UMBC has scored 79 points or more in 7 of their last 9 games. They have hit 86 points or more in four of those games.

UMBC is second in the nation in average possession length. They are favored here, and I think they can push the pace. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Bucks are clearly playing differently with Doc Rivers as their head coach. They have slowed the pace down and they have been playing much better defense.

Milwaukee ranks 26th in the NBA in pace in the last five contests. The LA Clippers rank just 21st, so they are pretty slow paced as well.

The Bucks are first in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last five games. The Clippers are 13th. 

Milwaukee's games were totaled extremely high with Coach Griffin, but Rivers and the Bucks are playing differently. 

The Clippers are without Russell Westbrook and they could be fatigued here after playing on Sunday as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UIC Flames and Missouri State Bears meet in their regular season finale here. 

Missouri State has had much higher scoring games at the end of the regular season. The Bears have seen five straight games reach at least 148 total points. 

UIC has seen three straight games hit 161 points or higher in regulation. The Flames have been shooting the ball better from three point range. 

In four of Missouri State's last five games, their opponent has averaged at least 1.18 points per possession. 

UIC has seen opponents average 1.12 points per possession or higher in four of their last five games. 

It's a late season game where neither team has much to play for. These have gone over the total a lot in the last decade or so, and the MVC is the conference where the over has done the best in the last month of the year when it is two subpar teams squaring off.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Greg Gordon chose to leave the Iona program in late February for personal reasons. The team has played three games without their key offensive piece. They clearly miss him quite a bit. In the four total games this year that Gordon hasn't played Iona has scored 61 against lowly St. Francis, 75 against Rider, 65 against Mt. St. Mary's, and 64 against Quinnipiac. 

This will be the best defense Iona has seen without Gordon by a wide margin. Marist is easily first in the MAAC in defensive efficiency. They are allowing opponents to shoot just 31% from 3 point range, and Iona puts up a lot of long range jumpers.

Marist has locked up a bunch of teams this year, especially when playing on their home floor. The Red Foxes are just 320th in the country in offensive efficiency though.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego Toreros and Pacific Tigers meet here in a game that really doesn't mean anything to either team. These games very late in the regular season where both teams have nothing to play for have trended strongly toward the over in the last 15 years or so in college basketball.

San Diego is relentless in pushing the pace. Pacific is easily the worst defense in the league. 

Pacific does get to the free throw line quite a bit, and San Diego is a team that fouls at a high rate. 

I would expect a lot of open looks in this game. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a game where many of the top scoring options are going to be unavailable. UT Rio Grande Valley is playing without 3 of their original 5 starters on offense. Their offensive efficiency numbers have dipped significantly. They have scored 59 points or fewer in three straight games. They also scored just 54 points in their first meeting with Cal Baptist. 

Cal Baptist is without star Dominique Daniels. This is a team that has already had a hard time creating on offense, and without him that weakness is even more apparent.

UT Rio Grande Valley relies extremely heavily on getting to the line on offense, and Cal Baptist is best in the league at defending without fouling. 

Cal Baptist should control the pace as the better team, and they want to play slowly.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kansas State has been better on offense in their last couple games, but I don't trust them to consistently be good on offense. We've seen this Wildcats team take far too many contested jump shots this season. 

Cincinnati is one of the weakest offenses in the Big 12. The Bearcats have been very good on defense though. 

The only edge I see offensively for the teams is some offensive rebounds. Still, I expect a pretty slow pace and poor overall efficiency. This total has bumped up too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers beat the FIU Panthers 105-91 in the first meeting between these two. The pace of that game was a blistering 85 possessions. Both of these teams were using full court pressure and pushing the tempo at every opportunity. 

FIU has been slowed down by some teams who play a slower tempo, but Western Kentucky certainly doesn't want to slow anyone down. Western Kentucky is first in the nation in overall tempo. FIU is 49th in tempo. This should once again be a track meet.

Neither of these teams has been good at taking care of the ball, but both defenses look to get quick steals and score in transition. These two teams are poor in transition defense. There should be a lot of run out opportunities here.

FIU is 359th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense.

I had this one several points higher. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The VCU Rams and Richmond Spiders don't like each other a bit. This is an intracity rivalry game. Both of these teams are clearly better on defense than offense. I expect a max effort from both defenses in this one. 

These are two really good defensive rebounding teams. Second chance points should be tough to come by in this one. 

VCU has racked up points at the line this year, but Richmond has been excellent at defending without fouling.

The stakes are high here and I like the defenses to take care of business.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Loyola Maryland Greyhounds are down two of their best offensive players. This team has struggled offensively all year, but they are really up against it now. Army has been one of the better defenses in the Patriot League. 

Army and Loyola are both most comfortable playing at a very slow pace. The first game between these two was played ultra slow, but both teams shot the ball much better than they normally do. The game hit 136 points total, but Shot Quality (advanced analytics) graded it as a 110 point expected total points based on the shots taken in the game.

Army has scored 59 points or less in four straight games. Loyola just put up 46 points in their last game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* North Carolina A&T is a completely different team with Landon Glasper in the lineup. Glasper is a very quick guard who likes to push the pace. Without him, NC A&T played much slower and their offensive stats for the season are skewed lower because he missed quite a bit of time. 

Campbell has picked up their pace quite a bit during the season this year. The Fighting Camels have seen 7 of their last 8 games get over this total. They have excellent guards who have a clear advantage here on offense.

A last game between two teams who have very little to play for. This is an angle that has been very good to over bettors at the end of the regular season. 

*3 Star Play Under* It's a fight for important seeding in the CAA Tournament here. The final game of the regular season for both teams. Both teams will be highly motivated in this finale. 

The first game between these two played to an extremely slow pace of 58 possessions. That game featured hot shooting and it still only finished at 131 points. Shot Quality, an advanced analytical site, had the expected score at 115 points based on the quality of shots taken.

Towson is very slow paced, and UNC Wilmington has typically played to that slow pace with them in recent meetings. 

UNC Wilmington's White is a star, but Towson has better defenders to put on him than most teams do.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Indiana Screamin' Eagles have been pushing the pace quite a bit more late in the season. Southern Indiana is first in the OVC in FTA/FGA on offense, and they are last in FTA/FGA allowed on defense. Southern Indiana games are foul fests consistently. When is that even more true? In their home games. Southern Indiana's free throw rate and free throw rate allowed are much higher in their home games. 

Lindenwood isn't good at many things, but they are pretty good at getting to the line (3rd in FTA/FGA in the OVC) and shooting free throws. They should do some damage at the line as well. Their defense has been awful of late. 

Southern Indiana has played 9 of their last 11 games over this total. The two that went under this total were 141 and 142 points.

Take the over.