*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds are allowing almost 1.21 points per possession on the year. That is second worst in the country out of 351 teams. Idaho State isn't much better on defense. They are 340th in defensive efficiency out of 351 teams. They are allowing 1.17 points per game. 

Southern Utah has committed the third most fouls in the country, and Idaho State is pretty good at getting to the line. 

Both of these teams are terrible at defending beyond the 3 point arc, so don't be surprised if there are a bunch of made 3's in this game.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two played two high scoring games last year even though both played a slower pace last season. Both of these teams are struggling badly on defense, and they both foul a bunch. With this being a rivalry game, the officials are likely to have a quick whistle to keep things under control. Expect a bunch of trips to the line in this one.

Both teams have a lot of good 3 point shooters, and I think they will get plenty of open looks throughout in this one. Look for a close game with the number of trips to the free throw line pushing this over the total.

Take the over. 

*5 Star CBB Saturday's TOP Total* The UTEP Miners have the top ranked defense in Conference USA. They are allowing only 0.92 points per possession. MTSU has the third best defense in the conference at only 0.942 points per possession allowed. 

UTEP is 235th out of 351 teams in the country in tempo, so they prefer to play slowly. MTSU is 332nd in tempo, so they are a very slow paced team this year.

The tempo should stay low here, and with two really good defenses, it would take some rare tremendous shooting or a bunch of fouls to send this one over the total. 

I had this one at 126 points. I expect a hard fought game that stays under the total.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane aren't nearly as good on offense as they were last year. They are still very good on defense. Looking at the Cincinnati game from earlier this week gives us a good idea of how Tulsa wants to play against teams who are better than them. Tulsa wants to slow things down and make it a low scoring game. They don't have the offensive firepower to win games against the best teams in this conference if it is an 80-75 type game. 

Tulsa is also very reliant on getting to the free throw line, but SMU ranks in the top ten in the country in defending without fouling. The Mustangs should give Tulsa's offense a lot of trouble. 

SMU has been amazing on offense in general, but their numbers are quite a bit lower on the road. 

The under is 7-3 in SMU's last 10 road games. The under is 9-2 in Tulsa's last 11 as an underdog.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats have been a good over team this year. They changed their tempo up from last year, and it has been hard for the oddsmakers to keep up. The Bobcats crash the offensive glass in a huge way. They get a bunch of second chance points, and they also give up a bunch of run out opportunities because everyone is crashing the offensive glass.

The first meeting between these two played out to a 81-78 final score. The numbers in that game were right about the averages for both teams, and I see a similar game here. I had this one at 160.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Kentucky Colonels are averaging only 0.934 points per possession in the Ohio Valley Conference. Eastern Kentucky is the second slowest paced team in the league. The Colonels are slowing things down because they just don't have the firepower to win games with their offense. Eastern Kentucky is third in the conference in defensive efficiency.

Tennessee Martin is the third slowest paced team in the conference and I project this pace at a slow mark of 67 possessions. 

Barring some very high shooting numbers, I like this one to stay under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* I played the over the first time these two met and it cashed comfortably. I'm going to play the over again here. Arkansas ranks 23rd in the country in quickest offensive possessions. Missouri is 86th in that same statistic. The first time these two got together the tempo was 73 possessions. I expect a similar tempo here.

In a game with that many possessions, it takes some really bad shooting numbers to not reach a total like this. Missouri definitely shoots the ball poorly, but both of these teams foul a bunch and both teams are good at getting to the line. Trips to the charity stripe should be a big help here. There were 54 free throws in the first matchup.

These two teams are 11th and 12th in the SEC in defensive efficiency, so the offenses will be going against much weaker defenses than normal. 

I have this one at 153.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Summit League is a conference where no one plays defense and everyone can shoot, but the top two offenses in the league are meeting in Denver here on Saturday. Denver is averaging a whopping 1.176 points per possession in league play. Fort Wayne isn't far behind at 1.165 points per possession.

These two met earlier this year and played to a 87-83 final score. They shot 44 and 42% from long range, but that is right about at their averages in league play. 

Also, there were only 26 free throws attempted in that first game. One would assume there will be more free throws than that in this game.

Quick tempo and two very good offenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are the two best defenses in the CAA. Elon is allowing 0.992 points per possession. College of Charleston is allowing 0.963 points per possession. These two played a game that finished at 120 points earlier this year. I had this one projected at 128. Charleston has had some higher scoring games lately, which pushed this total up. In those games, they were playing teams that wanted to run. Here, they play an Elon team that plays to the pace of their opponent. C of Charleston likes to slow the game down and should get their way with the pace. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles and Louisiana Monroe Warhawks met earlier this year and the final score was 62-60. I had the under in that one, and I'll take the under again here. If you look at Monroe's last 13 games, not a single one of them has gone over the posted total without going into overtime. This game isn't likely to go to overtime with GA Southern being a big favorite here. I had this one at 138. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* In this one, 13% of the bets are on the under, but 60% of the money is on the under. Eastern Illinois and Tennessee Tech are similar teams. Most of the teams in this conference push the tempo a lot, but these two prefer not to. The tempo should be kept down here, and neither team is very efficient on offense. I had this one at 139 points, and with the sharp money taking the under, I will as well. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTSA Roadrunners do a great job of making everything really sloppy. They are dead last in the nation in 3 point shooting percentage. They make less than 1/4 of their attempted 3 point jumpers. Ouch. At the same time, UTSA is much improved on defense this year, and on their home floor they have been particularly strong on defense.

UAB started slowly on defense, but this team has been good on defense in previous years, and they are playing well on defense right now. 

Neither team pushes the tempo very much, and I had this number at 132.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Play Total* The Xavier Musketeers lost Edmond Sumner to an injury last weekend. He averaged 15 points per game, and was their leading assists man. In the team's lone game without him, they played at a slower than average pace, and their offense looked a bit out of sorts.

Maurice Watson Jr. is out for the season for Creighton. He was the star point guard for the team. Watson averaged 12.9 points per game and 8.4 assists per contest. Without him, Creighton is definitely playing at a slower tempo.

This line was bet up early, and that gives us more value. I had this number at 153. I see both offenses being a little out of rhythm, and with a total set this high, it doesn't take much. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks are averaging 1.171 points per possession inside the conference. Now, they get to play against the worst defense in the conference. Arizona State might have the worst defense of any team in Power 5 conference this year. 

Arizona State is giving up 1.188 points per possession in the PAC 12. I think Oregon will rack up 1.20 points per possession or higher here. Arizona State likes to push the tempo, and Oregon was willing to play fast with both USC and UCLA.

Oregon should put up a big number here. Arizona State's offense ranks 44th in the nation in efficiency, and they should get enough to push this past the total.

In this game, 65% of the bets are on the over and 93% of the money is on the over. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is somewhat of a contrarian play. This could be one of those rare games where the public actually backs the under. Oregon State has been playing slowly this year, and Arizona absolutely has a great defense.

The thing that makes me like the over here is Oregon State's defense. When facing an offense that ranks in the top 75 in the nation in points per possession, Oregon State has allowed 1.19 points per possession. That's about as bad as you'll see. 

Arizona's offense has scored 77 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games (73 in the other). With Trier back in the lineup, this Cats offense is dangerous. Look for them to find a lot of open looks here.

Oregon State's offensive numbers have gotten better in recent games. This is a young team that is getting slightly better guard play of late, and I think they get us enough here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTSA Roadrunners are much better on defense this year. UTSA ranked 343rd in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 110th in the nation in that same category this year.

MTSU is playing four possessions per game slower than they did last season. MTSU ranks 48th in the nation in defensive efficiency.

UTSA's offense is brutal. They are dead last in 3 point shooting percentage in the country. They rank 345th in offensive efficiency. I can't imagine them scoring many on MTSU here.

I had this number at 126.

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals CRUSHER* The Elon Phoenix host the James Madison Dukes here. Elon has been playing to the pace of their opponent all year long. James Madison is the slowest paced team in the CAA. The first meeting between these two finished at 60-59 and with a pace of only 59 possessions. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency, while they are both in the top half in defensive efficiency. In the first game, the shooting numbers were actually just slightly above average, but the pace was so low that the score stayed way under the posted total.

Of James Madison's last 17 games, only 3 have gone above this posted total. Also, 8 of Elon's last 13 totals have stayed under this posted total.

My numbers had this one at 126. It's very rare I see a line this late in the year 8 points off my number. I like the under here quite a bit.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers and USF Bulls played a game a few weeks ago that finished at only 118 points. That has given us some good value on the over here.

What happened in the first game? The two teams shot their lowest field goal percentages of the year on a points per possession basis. There were also 41 turnovers. With statistics likely normalizing here, there is value on the over.

USF is playing completely differently under their interim head coach (Bartow). They were stalling earlier in the year, and now they are pushing the pace in a big way. USF has played 5 of its last 6 games to a tempo of 72 possessions or quicker. None of their 8 games before that was played to that tempo.

Memphis prefers to run and I think the Tigers can get out in transition here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I don't normally fade the steam too often, but I have to in this case. This number has gotten out of hand.

Oakland is a different team than last year. Oakland averaged 1.17 points per possession last year. This year they are averaging 0.99 points per possession. This is a very inefficient offense without Kay Felder. Oakland is a lot better on defense too. The Golden Grizzlies had a terrible defense last year (1.06 points per possession), and this year they are second in the league in defensive efficiency at 0.972 points per possession. Oakland has only had 3 lined games go over this total all year.

Youngstown State definitely runs, but they aren't all that efficient either, and they are improved on defense compared to last year. In their last 8 games, only one has gone over this total in regulation.

I'll fade the steam. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SMU Mustangs rank 337th out of 351 teams in the country in terms of tempo. This is a team that slows the game down drastically. East Carolina ranks toward the bottom in tempo too.

East Carolina is awful on offense. Their efficiency is about as bad as you'll ever find. East Carolina is averaging 0.846 points per possession inside the conference. 

SMU is going to grab the lead early here, and I like their ability to get a big lead and then slow the game down. They aren't a team who tries to run up the score by pushing the pace in any way.

Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Utah Jazz and Milwaukee Bucks both play at a very slow pace. Utah is the slowest paced team in the NBA for the year as a whole. Milwaukee plays more than 3 possessions slower on the road than they do at home, and Utah will look to control the tempo here. No reason to expect a quick pace.

The three referees assigned to this game are all very good long term under referees. Each of them has a history of calling less fouls than the average official, and they all have a long history in the league.

62% of the bets are on the under, but a whopping 90% of the money is on the under. I agree with the sharp money here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Eastern Kentucky Colonels went from the fastest paced team in the Ohio Valley Conference last year, to the second slowest paced team in the league this year. Eastern Kentucky is dead last by a wide margin in offensive efficiency in the OVC as well.

Austin Peay is a faster paced team, but they have still slowed things down a lot since the beginning of league play. Austin Peay is poor defensively, but they are up against a bad offense in this one. 

These two teams rank second and third in the league in least fouls committed. The tempo here shouldn't be very fast, and a total this high is usually reserved for either good offenses or really fast paced teams. Neither of those fit this game at all.

I have a high unders system I follow where you take a high under when the tempo of the home team is slow. That system is at 56% winners for the last five years. This one fits that system.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers have played three games all year that went over this posted total. I can't pass up an opportunity to play an under with Virginia at this level, especially when it is a rivalry game, which generally leads to lower scoring. 

Virginia Tech and Virginia met twice last year with one game finishing at 138 because of a foul fest late in the game. The other game finished at 116 points. Virginia has slowed their tempo down from last year, and they are even better on defense. I expect them to control the pace and win this contest.

I had this number at 130 points.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Marquette Golden Eagles tend to play to the pace of their opponent, but they do prefer to play fast. St. John's is first in the Big East in tempo, and I expect this to be a very fast paced game.

These two teams played each other 3 times last year, and the slowest pace was 78 possessions, which is extremely quick. Both teams are more efficient on offense this season, and I expect both teams to be able to score quickly in this one.

A fast pace with two solid offenses. I had this one at 167 points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The Wyoming Cowboys play way faster than any other team in the Mountain West. Wyoming is playing at a pace of 76.5 possessions per game in the conference. 

San Diego State certainly slows the tempo down, but the Aztecs aren't nearly as good on defense as they have been in past years. The Aztecs allowed 0.864 and 0.894 points per possession in the last two years, but this year they are at 0.969 points per possession allowed. 

San Diego State isn't as good on defense, and their offense got a nice boost recently when Malik Pope came back in the lineup. Pope scored 19 points in their last game.

It is always a little tricky taking overs with San Diego State, but given their opponent and their worse defense this year, the value is there.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The Wisconsin Badgers are still great at forcing the opposition to play their style of basketball. Wisconsin ranks 337th out of 351 in tempo nationwide. This is a team that is very efficient on offense, but they slow the pace down every single game.

Illinois has slowed things down in recent games. While the Fighting Illini were pushing the tempo early this year, they have slowed down the pace against their last two opponents. I don't think Illinois will be able to push the issue here.

Wisconsin is great at getting the lead and taking the air out of the ball. The Badgers are clearly the better team here, and I think they'll have a lead throughout this one.

My numbers made this game 129 points. The Badgers should dictate the tempo. Wisconsin's strong defense and slow tempo should hold this under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals have picked up the tempo in a big way this year. They rank second in the MAC in overall pace. Ball State is averaging 76 possessions per game. The Cardinals have scored 84 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Ball State has a bunch of guys who can score, and I don't think this Toledo defense will be able to stop them.

Toledo ranks 10th in the MAC in defensive efficiency and 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency. The Rockets are good at getting to the line, and they should get quite a few trips there against a Ball State team that fouls more than the average team.

I see the pace being quick and the shooting percentages being high here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have the worst defense in the MAC. Western Michigan is allowing 1.18 points per possession in conference play. On the other hand, Western Michigan has been excellent on offense, especially on their home court. Western Michigan has scored 90, 92, and 80 points in their three home games in the MAC. This is a team that shoots the ball much better at home.

Ohio lost Antonio Campbell, but their outside shooting has been tremendous since he has gone out of the lineup. The Bobcats are playing even faster recently, and I think they'll push the pace throughout this game.

While only 66% of the bets are on the over, 99% of the money in this game is on the over. I have a system I'm tracking on how well splits like that do, and in the past couple years when the sharp action is that strong toward the over, it has cashed 61% of the time.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Monroe Warhawks do a great job turning a game into a low scoring affair. They slow the game down. They shoot the ball terribly from the floor. In fact, Monroe is averaging less than 0.89 points per possession in conference play. Monroe is a pretty good defensive team though.

Little Rock is their opponent here, and Little Rock slows the game down as well. The first game between these two was 134 in regulation, but both of them shot a much better number than their season shooting averages.

Monday has been the best day in college hoops for unders in the past ten years, especially when it is a game with a quick turnaround. 

Both teams played Saturday and I see this number being a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB Sunday TOP Play SMASHER* The Bradley Braves gave up 100 points the first time they played Wichita State this year. Wichita State has scored 85, 88, and 100 points on them in their last three meetings. 

I don't see any reason to expect Wichita State to slow down offensively in this one. The Shockers are playing faster on offense than any other team in the Missouri Valley Conference. Remember how good last year's Wichita State team was? This team is much better on offense. They are also not as strong on defense, which obviously helps the over.

Bradley is a below average defense, and the Braves are the fourth quickest paced team in the Missouri Valley Conference. I don't expect to see them stalling here, especially since they should be at a big deficit early. 

Bradley does get to the line a lot, and Wichita State is fouling more than the average team. Bradley should get quite a few freebies at the stripe.

I had this one at 145 points. I rarely get 7 points of value from my number, especially this late in the year. I like this one quite a bit. Take the over big. 

*3 Star Cavs/Thunder NBA MONEY* The Cleveland Cavs and Oklahoma City Thunder meet on Sunday afternoon on ABC. Sunday day games have hit at 55% to the under in the past ten years in the NBA. Yesterday, every single game on the NBA schedule went over the posted total. 

Oklahoma City is now without Enes Kanter who is out with an injury. Kanter has been a consistent double digit scorer for the team, and his loss has to hurt the offense. Russell Westbrook already has to do a lot for the Thunder on offense, and now his load gets even heavier.

The under is a stunning 78-34-3 in Cleveland's last 115 Sunday games, so they have been one of the strongest Sunday under teams. 

With a total set this high, and OKC having question marks on offense without Kanter, I'm taking the under here. 

*3 Star NBA Red HOT CASH* The Atlanta Hawks host the New York Knicks in a Sunday afternoon game. Atlanta is 8-2 to the under in their last 10 Sunday games. New York is 19-7 to the under in their last 26 games. Sunday has consistently been the best under day in the NBA in the past ten years, and that has been the case again this year.

Yesterday, every single NBA game that was played went over the posted total. That kind of thing usually leads to some value on the under in the following day or days. 

The Knicks are likely to be without Derrick Rose in this one. New York is playing at the 25th fastest tempo in the NBA, which means a total set this high is hard for them to reach without some great offense.

Atlanta's defense is slightly better at home and the Knicks have actually been better on the road on the defensive end.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Titans changed their style of play a few games ago. They are now using a full court press and trying to create scoring opportunities by forcing turnovers. Basically, their halfcourt defense was so horrendous, they had to do something else. 

Detroit has seen three of their last five games top the 180 point mark since they changed their style of play.

Wisconsin Green Bay is always willing to run. In fact, Green Bay uses only 13.9 seconds of the shot clock on average, which puts their tempo on offense at fourth quickest out of 351 teams in the country.

This one is a game that should see huge point totals for both teams.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Michigan/Michigan State TV Totals CASH* The Michigan State Spartans aren't all that good this year. This is one of Tom Izzo's worst teams in recent memory. Having said that, I have to believe the team shows up ready to play in what is a really important game for them.

There are a couple key long term systems that make me like this under. Big Ten teams that are both on an over streak of 1-4 games have a 59% rate to the under in their next game. How about when looking at only totals of 131 or higher? Then that number becomes a 90-48 mark to the under, or a 65% cashing clip. 

Also, teams that have shot the kind of percentage Michigan did last game against Indiana often crash back down to earth in their next game. Michigan shot a ridiculous 63.3% from the floor last game. They should have a harder time on offense here.

Both teams prefer to play slow, and I had this one at 133.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Kentucky Colonels have changed the way they play. Eastern Kentucky was a really fast paced team last year, and they started the season looking like a fast paced team again. 

As the season has gone along and they have been short handed from injuries, Eastern Kentucky has dramatically slowed down their pace. They are averaging less than 0.89 points per possession, which makes them the least efficient offense in the OVC. 

Tennessee Tech does play relatively quickly, but they aren't efficient on offense either, and they are the 4th best defense in the conference. 

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee State Tigers and Belmont Bruins have the two best defenses in the Ohio Valley Conference. Tennessee State needs to slow the game down to have a real chance against a team like Belmont. The Bruins would be fine with a high scoring affair, but I don't think Tennessee State will run with them on their home floor.

While only about 15% of the bets are on the under here, about half of the money is on the under. I had this one at 137, and I believe the sharp side here is the under.

I'm taking the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Totals CRUSHER* The Butler Bulldogs have been extremely consistent with their tempo this year. When I look to play an under, I want to make sure a team has consistently played at the same pace, and Butler has been the picture of consistency. 

The only thing that has made some Butler games much higher scoring has been a very high shooting percentage. In this game though, we have two teams who are in the top 51 in the country in defensive efficiency. 

Georgetown likes to play quickly, but they are the second least efficiency offense in the Big East. I think this Butler defense will do a good job slowing them down.

Despite higher than average shooting performances from both teams in the first game, the total was 136 at the end of regulation.

I had this one at 138, and I see good value on the under.

Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Over* Western Illinois is an interesting team. The Leathernecks started the season out moving slowly, but they have consistently played faster in the conference. Each of their last four games have been played at a blistering fast pace of 75 possessions or faster. 

IUPUI has been playing fast all year. The Jaguars are coming off a game where they allowed 103 points in a loss to Fort Wayne. IUPUI put up 89 points in an 89-71 win at home earlier this year against Western Illinois. 

No team in the nation (351 teams) has defended the 3 point line worse than Western Illinois. IUPUI is shooting better than 40 percent from beyond the arc.

Both of these teams struggle to defend without fouling. 

My numbers had this game at 156. I see fouls late being a boost in this one as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bulls play quickly, but they are much better on defense than on offense. The Bulls average less than 1 point per possession and are unlikely to be able to score with Akron here.

Akron has shown over the season that they are happy to slow the game down once they get a lead, and I expect them to be playing with the lead during this game. The Zips shoot the ball well, but Buffalo is one of the best defenses in the conference.

Both of these teams played faster last year, and yet all 3 of their games went under this posted total last season.

I think this line should be 147, so I'll take the value with the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas Jayhawks and Kentucky Wildcats square off in Rupp Arena tonight. Kentucky ranks 10th in the country in pace this year. Why wouldn't the Cats run at all chances? With the athleticism they have all over the court, this team is built to run. De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk make one of the best backcourt tandems there has been in college basketball in the last few years.

Kansas ranks in the top 100 in tempo as well. The Jayhawks rank 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency, but only 39th in defensive efficiency. Kentucky is 2nd in offensive efficiency and 14th in defensive efficiency. 

I'm not confident in Kansas' ability slow down Kentucky at all here. I think Kentucky puts up a big number. In these non-conference games late in the year, the over has hit at about 55-56% long-term.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Jacobi Boykins is expected to miss this game after getting in a fight last game. He is Louisiana Tech's best long range shooter. MTSU's defense is really good on the interior, and I think it will hurt LA Tech to not have a guy on the outside that shoots 45% from long range. 

LA Tech ranks number one in defensive efficiency in Conference USA. The Bulldogs are playing significantly slower than they did a year ago as well.

MTSU is excellent on both offense and defense. The Blue Raiders are favored by 9 here, and I expect them to grab the lead and slow the game down. MTSU has held 4 of their last 6 opponents to 57 points or less.

I had this one totaled at 132. 

Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Total of Week* The Eastern Washington Eagles and Montana State Bobcats are two very different teams this year compared to last season. 

Both teams are far less efficient on offense than they were last year. Eastern Washington is averaging 1.135 points per possession (still good) on offense in the conference this year compared to 1.169 last year. Montana State is averaging 1.05 points per possession this year compared to 1.098 points per possession last year. 

Montana State allowed 1.078 points per possession last year in the conference on the defensive end. They are allowing only 1.034 per possession this year. Eastern Washington allowed a whopping 1.094 last year on defense, and this year they are allowing only 1.00 points per possession.

Eastern Washington is also playing five possessions slower than they did last year. This game is lined like it was a game between these two last season. 

The earlier meeting this year went to 146 points despite one team shooting over 60% from the floor. 

I had this one lined at 147 points. Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns have been playing very fast of late. Earlier in the season, the Longhorns were playing games at 63 and 65 possessions regularly, but in their recent games the Longhorns have been playing at 73-75 possessions. 

Shaka Smart's team finally seems comfortable playing at the kind of tempo he wanted them to play at all along. That has given bettors a lot of value taking the over of late. Consistently, we have seen money pour in on the over, and it has been the right play. I'm playing this one early because of that.

Georgia plays at an average tempo and plays to the pace of their opponent. The Bulldogs are good at getting to the line and they should make plenty of trips to the line in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen host the George Mason Patriots on Saturday afternoon. The first game between these two was very telling. It was played at a very fast paced of 76. The shooting numbers were just a little above average, but they were nothing dramatic. The final score in that game was 86-81.

UMass is the fastest paced team in the Atlantic 10. They are the 13th fastest team in the country. George Mason is playing much faster inside the conference than I would have expected. They are the third fastest team pace wise in the A 10.

No reason to expect anything other than a very fast tempo again.

I had this one lined at 154 points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'm impressed with the job Josh Pastner has done at Georgia Tech this year. Pastner is switching up defenses constantly, and he has gotten his GA Tech team to buy into his system right away. 

Notre Dame is a good offense, but they aren't as good as they were the last couple years offensively. The Fighting Irish are much better on defense than they have been in recent years.

Georgia Tech ranks in the bottom 75 teams in the country when it comes to effective field goal percentage offense, but they are in the top 25 in defensive field goal percentage. 

Both teams rank in the top 31 in the country in least fouls committed. Both play at a slow tempo. I think this is a close game that stays under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams are very good at controlling the tempo. Fordham averages only 66 possessions per game. Davidson is playing at an average pace this year, and they have played to the pace of their opponent throughout the year. 

Fordham upset Davidson on the road by slowing the game down and making it an ugly contest. The Rams will look to do that again here. Davidson's shooting numbers have been way down this year, and Fordham is great at forcing turnovers. I don't see Davidson being all that efficient on offense.

The Rams offense isn't good, and Davidson is much improved on defense. 

Take the under in this early game. 

*4 Star TGIF College Hoops CRUSHER* The Valparaiso Crusaders host the Wright State Raiders on Friday night. Valparaiso has the number one ranked offense in the conference when it comes to offensive efficiency. Wright State ranks third in the conference in offensive efficiency.

An important part of this play to me is both teams ability to get to the free throw line. Valparaiso is first in trips to the line in the conference, and Wright State is number two. What about their ability to convert at the line? Valparaiso is shooting an amazing 81.6% at the line this year which is second in the nation. Inside the conference they are shooting 82.8%. Wright State is shooting 75.6% from the line, which ranks in the top 40 in the country.

Wright State plays a little quicker than the average team, and Valparaiso is right around the average mark. 

Both teams are good on offense and great at the line, and the spread is at 9, where late fouling is definitely possible. I'll take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Long Beach State 49ers have been running like crazy in conference play. They are putting shots up on average after only 15 seconds. Long Beach is coming off a game against Cal Poly where it was 89-89 going into overtime. What's wild about that is the fact that Long Beach was able to get a very slow paced team like Cal Poly to run that much.

There's more evidence of Long Beach forcing the issue no matter the opponent. Long Beach was in a 91-91 game against slow paced Hawaii at the end of regulation. They also finished off an 81-76 win against very slow paced UCSB.

There's no way Long Beach State slows down here, and in this game Cal State Fullerton is the opponent and they play at an above average tempo. Fullerton excels at getting to the line, and Long Beach definitely fouls more than the average team. At the same time, Fullerton commits a bunch of fouls on defense. Trips to the charity stripe should help a lot in this one.

The spread here is 6.5, which is right in the perfect range for a late fouling fest. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB Hidden GEM TOP Total* Austin Peay hosts Tennessee Martin and this under the radar game will be on CBS Sports Network on Thursday night. These two teams never get games on national television, so this is a big deal for them. In general, over the years I've found television games for smaller conferences to be slightly lower scoring than the average games. The shooting numbers often go down a bit when the bright lights are on them, at least when they aren't accustomed to it.

Playing the under when the total is this high has been a good move more times than not in college basketball over the years. Everything has to go right for the total to get this high. These are two bad defenses, and that is certainly a risk here. 

On the other hand, Tennessee Martin has slowed down drastically inside the conference. The Skyhawks were averaging 70.5 possessions per game in the non-conference schedule, but they are all the way down to 65.9 inside the conference. Austin Peay is playing at 71 possessions. 

These two teams foul less on defense than any other teams in the conference, so barring a terrible draw with refs that want the spotlight on them, there shouldn't be a lot of fouls in this game. 

TN Martin hasn't had an OVC game go over this total all season (7 games). Only two of Austin Peay's have gone over this total in regulation. 

Sometimes, you have to draw a line in the sand. These aren't great under teams, but this line is just too high by several points.

I had this one at 157. 

Take the under big! 

*4 Star Play Over* The Charlotte 49ers are a really high scoring team, and they are great at dictating the tempo. Charlotte will run as they always do. The 49ers are playing at a blazing fast 75.1 possessions per game in the conference. North Texas experimented with slowing things down in the non-conference slate, but they are back to running now. The Mean Green are averaging 71 possessions per game. This game should be played at a very quick tempo.

Charlotte is number one in the conference in 3 point shooting, and N Texas isn't very good on defense. North Texas is good at getting to the line, and Charlotte commits more than the average number of fouls. 

Charlotte beat N Texas 101-76 in a game played to a pace of 82 possessions earlier this year.

I had this one at 159. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners have a way of making every game they play in really ugly. They aren't good at all on offense, and they are good on defense. UTEP also looks to slow the pace down.

UTEP has played in six straight games that have gone below this posted total in regulation. The Miners are second in the conference in defensive efficiency and last in offensive efficiency. 

Both UTEP and Western Kentucky prefer to slow the game down, and I think this game will have a slow tempo. Unless these teams shoot a much higher percentage from the floor than normal, I don't see this one going over. 

I had this one 136 points. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears and Texas Tech Red Raiders are the two slowest paced teams in the Big 12.

Baylor has the best defense in the Big 12, and they rank sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. I don't see Texas Tech's offense having much success here. The Red Raiders put up only 56 points in their trip to Ames to take on Iowa State who is a top defense as well. 

Baylor has shown consistently that they are willing to grab a lead and then slow down the pace. I think they'll get the lead early on here, and then coast to the finish with a slower paced game. I'll be surprised if Texas Tech gets to 60 points here.

I had this number at 129 points. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ohio State Buckeyes have seen only one conference game go under this posted total, and that was by a single point against Nebraska. Most teams in the Big Ten prefer to slow things down, but both Ohio State and Minnesota prefer uptempo basketball.

The Buckeyes defense was good in the non-conference schedule, but they are allowing almost 1.09 points per possession in Big Ten play. 

The first game between these two was 78-68, so it easily passed up this total. The shooting numbers were nothing better than average either, and there were a lot of missed free throws.

I had this line at 139. With the initial line drop, there's too much value to pass up. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I'll be the first to admit that playing an over with UConn is tough to do. However, they are up against a South Florida team that has completely changed the way they play since Murray Bartow took over a few games ago as their head coach. 

USF was consistently playing to a pace of about 65 possessions before he took over, and now they have been at 72 possessions or faster in 4 of their last 5 games. The final total in USF's last five games has been 146 points or higher in 4 of their last 5 games as well.

UConn's offense has improved quite a bit of late, and I think they'll be able to get quite a few open looks against this poor USF defense.

The spread here is right at the margin where fouling late in the game is a real possibility also.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Totals SMASHER* The Virginia Cavs are the slowest paced team in the country. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are significantly slower than the average team as well.

Notre Dame and Virginia met up last year and the final was 77-66. The tempo in that game was 58. What does that mean? It means that both teams shot a ridiculous percentage from the floor in that contest. Notre Dame scored 1.14 points per possession in that game. Virginia scored an insane 1.33 points per possession in that contest.

Virginia ranks exactly the same as last year in defense, and they are one of the top seven defenses in defensive efficiency in the nation. Notre Dame ranked 158th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year, but they are 62nd this year. It's unlikely these two teams will shoot the percentage they did last year.

This should be a close game throughout, and both of these teams excel at defending without fouling, which is a big plus in today's era where referees can get whistle happy very quickly.

My projected number here was 130, and I don't get many 6 point differences this time of the year. 

Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas are 5th in the nation in scoring at 89.3 points per game. They are also 340th in points per game allowed at 83.4. While this total is extremely high, it's more than justified.Central Michigan's average final total is 173 points.

Central Michigan is 8th in the country in pace. The Chippewas will force the tempo at all times. In this one, they are playing against a Bowling Green team that ranks in the top 20% in the country in terms of tempo. The pace should be lightning quick here. I think we will see somewhere around 79 or 80 possessions in this game. 

I have a system I have tracked on high overs. With two teams playing in the top 20% in the country in tempo and one team in the top 5% in the country in 3 point FG percentage, the over is 37-22 in the last 59 games when the total is 165.5 or higher (63%). This one fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls and Miami Ohio Redhawks meet in Oxford, Ohio on Tuesday night. Miami is allowing 1.15 points per possession on the defensive end. The Redhawks commit the most fouls of any team in the conference. 

Here, they are playing against a Buffalo team that plays at a pace of 74 possessions per game. They want to run early and often. The Bulls commit the third most fouls of any team in the MAC. While Buffalo's offense has struggled with efficiency this year, playing against a defense as bad as Miami should help that problem.

I have a pace pairs system I have backtested which is a system of teams playing at a similar pace of play in the range of these two teams and with a total of 128 to 148.5. That system has produced 145 overs and 84 unders in the past six years (63.3%). 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Sunday Night SMASHER* The USC Trojans are 43rd in the nation in quickest possessions on offense. Arizona State has the worst defense in a power five conference. The Sun Devils are allowing a ridiculous 1.218 points per possession in Pac 12 play. 

USC hasn't been all that efficient on offense in Pac 12 play, but they have played some great defenses. This defense is the worst, and I think USC will look much better on offense in this spot.

Arizona State is much more efficient on offense than last year, and they are playing a lot quicker as well. Arizona State is averaging 1.13 points per possession this year, and they are 48th in overall tempo. 

A high scoring game all the way.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Historically, Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. That's a pretty decent edge, and when you combine it with other factors, I like this under.

Phoenix was playing at the fastest pace in the NBA for a while, but they have drastically changed the way they play of late. The Suns rank 27th in the league (4th slowest) in the NBA in tempo in their last ten games. Some high shooting numbers have allowed 5 of the 10 to go over, but I see this as giving us extra value on the under.

A total set this high is hard to attain when one team is slowing the game down.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* Historically, Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. 

The under is 7-0 in Dallas' last 7 Sunday games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between the Lakers and the Mavericks. 

The Lakers have been a great over team at home, but they are even on the road in over/unders. Dallas is playing at the slowest tempo of any team in the NBA in the past ten games. The Mavericks are also last in the NBA in trips to the free throw line. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Total DOMINATION* The VCU Rams always want to push the tempo. LaSalle has been playing to the pace of their opponent of late. I think VCU will be able to get them to play quickly.

LaSalle has been shooting the ball remarkably well for a really long time now. The Explorers have a star in Jordan Price, and he has made this offense very efficient. LaSalle ranks 20th in the nation in offensive efficiency.

I had this total at 158 points, and I think both offenses have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Titans have changed their style of play of late. Detroit is now using an aggressive full court press and looking to create turnovers. They are creating turnovers, but they are also creating a bunch of easy looks in transition as well as free throw opportunities for their opponents. 

Detroit has sent teams to the line more than any other team in the country in their last three games. Northern Kentucky should live at the line here. At the same time, Detroit should get some steals and quick baskets because Northern Kentucky doesn't have great ball handlers.

Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Early Bird Special* The Golden State Warriors are coming off their big revenge win over the Houston Rockets on Friday night. Golden State has been extremely motivated for multiple games this week. This is a spot where they might be less motivated to kill the Magic.

Instead of taking Orlando though, I'm taking the under. Golden State's defense has been much better of late. Golden State now leads the NBA in defensive efficiency. Yes, the Warriors can pile up the points, but they can play defense as well. 

Orlando is middle of the pack in defensive efficiency, and they are subpar in offensive efficiency. 

Sunday is by far and away the best day to play unders in the NBA. That is especially the case when they are afternoon or earlier than usual games for the teams. In the past ten years alone, if you played every single under in the NBA on Sunday that starts at 6 pm eastern or earlier, you would have cashed 54.8% of the time. That's a pretty decent edge, and when you combine it with other factors, I like this under.

The under is a perfect 4-0 in Golden State's 4 road games on Sunday this year. The under is 3-0 in their 3 games as a double digit road favorite on Sunday. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 19-0 angle. 

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* These are two rare teams in the Big Sky that are actually slow paced. Most teams here like to play high scoring games, but these two are better suited for lower scoring contests. 

The price move upward here is enough for me to play back on the under. I had this one at 139. I think Montana wins with their defense and neither team shoots it very well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* There should be plenty of fireworks for this one. Portland State and Montana State both love to run, and I expect Portland State to put up a huge number on this terrible Montana State defense. Portland State could easily score 90 plus in this one, and Montana State is a good enough long range shooting team that they should be able to put up something in the upper 70's at a minimum. Fast paced and two good offenses. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Two teams who have no cohesion on offense here. UTEP and UTSA played a sloppy game that finished at 122 recently. I don't see any reason to expect much different in this one.

UTEP has averaged 0.88 points per possession in the conference. The tempo should stay slow thanks to UTSA looking to slow it down all the time.

I had this one at 128. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys are playing about as fast as anyone in the country right now. Wyoming is playing at 78.8 possessions per game inside the conference. That's in the top five in the nation in that period. Wyoming is getting a shot up on average in less than 14 seconds per trip. 

New Mexico is averaging 71.6 possessions per game in the league. The Lobos like to play quickly as well, and this game should be a track meet.

New Mexico is also first in the nation in free throws attempted this year. Wyoming fouls more than the average team. Wyoming ranks in the top 50 in free throws attempted, and New Mexico fouls more than the average team in the country as well.

The spread here sits at 7.5 or 8 points, which is a perfect spread for the possibility of a fouling fest late in the game. These have become an epidemic in college basketball this year, and that could send this thing really high by the end.

I had this total at 163. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Elon and William & Mary played an 88-85 game earlier this year. Elon is the type of team that plays to the pace of their opponent. Their opponent just happens to be the fastest paced team in the conference here.

William & Mary is a good shooting team, and they are very inefficient on defense. Elon's three point shooting has been good of late, and I think they will shoot it well against this poor William & Mary defense.

Look for a fast paced games with solid shooting numbers on both sides.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Rice Owls are going to force the issue here. Rice is an extremely efficient offense, and I expect them to bounce back from a poor offensive performance in their last game. Rice was shut down by LA Tech, who has the best defense in the conference. Now, they play against a weak team in Southern Miss.

Southern Miss has played much faster since point guard Khari Price came back five games ago. Price is the team's best player, and they seem comfortable running with him at the helm.

We get a number that is a little too low based on Rice's poor offensive performance last time out.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Illinois Huskies have a really inefficient offense. NIU is averaging only 0.96 points per possession, which ranks them 307th best out of 351 teams in the nation. On the other side, NIU is great on defense. The Huskies are allowing only 0.906 points per possession inside the MAC thus far, which makes them easily the best defense in the MAC.

Ohio is now without star forward Antonio Campbell. Campbell is out for the year due to a foot injury. Campbell was the conferences best player, and this team will really be hurting without him. They lost at home to Eastern Michigan by 4 without Campbell and then were blown away at Akron. Ohio still does have the second best defense in the MAC though, and they are up against a weak offense.

Expect a sloppy game here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bearcats are a unique team. They usually slow the game down, but when playing against weaker opponents they like to take the chance to run and pile up the points. 

Cincinnati's overall average tempo is 65.6 per game. Let's look at examples of their running up the score on bad defenses. They scored 96 points in a 72 possession game against Texas Southern. They scored 119 in a blistering fast 82 possession game against Fairleigh Dickinson. They scored 92 points in a 73 possession game against Tulane the first time around.

Tulane is the worst defense in the league, and it isn't even close. Tulane is also playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the American Athletic. 

Cincinnati should continue their trend of piling up the points on bad defenses. 

I had this one at 144.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The South Florida Bulls have changed their style of play under interim coach Murray Bartow. Orlando Antigua had the team stalling and playing only in the halfcourt, but under their new coach USF is looking to get out in transition. Their last three games have had a tempo about 4-5 possessions above their previous season average. The change is significant.

Tulsa is one of those rare teams in the American Athletic that would prefer to run. Most teams in this league look to slow the game down, but in this one Tulsa should get the chance to run like they prefer to. The Golden Hurricane are coming off an 89 point performance against the worst defense in the conference (Tulane). They now play the second worst defense in the conference in USF.

The oddsmakers haven't adjusted enough based on the new tempo for USF. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers are first in the Big Ten in tempo. Purdue has a tremendous frontcourt, and it is hard to imagine Penn State stopping them much at all down low. Swanigan and Haas should have a big day for the Boilers. 

Penn State is using only 16 seconds per possession on offense, so the Nittany Lions are flying on offense as well. The Nittany Lions aren't as efficient on offense, but I think the tempo will be enough to push this game past the posted total.

With my expected tempo here being 73 possessions, a total of 145.5 is a solid value. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA on ESPN CASH* The Los Angeles Lakers lost 115-108 in Indiana earlier this year. I think we see another very high scoring game (probably even higher than the first meeting) on Friday night in Los Angeles.

Indiana's home road splits are really interesting. The over is 11-10 in their home games this year. The over is 13-7 in their 20 road games this year. Why is that? Well, Indiana is 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency when playing at home this year. On the road, Indiana ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. They are allowing 1.004 points per possession at home. They are giving up 1.111 points per possession on the road. That's a massive difference. 

In the last ten games, both the Pacers and the Lakers rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In that same period, both of these teams rank in the top 14 in offensive efficiency. 

The over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings between these two. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars play at the 330th fastest tempo out of 351 teams in the country. Houston will walk it up and try to force Memphis to play their tempo in this game. 

Memphis prefers to play quickly, but I don't think they are very good at imposing their will in a tempo war. Memphis was dragged into three slow paced games recently by SMU, South Carolina, and UConn. 

Defensively, Memphis is only allowing 0.90 points per possession in the conference. Houston is only allowing 0.98 per possession. That's two very good defenses, and in a game I expect to be played at a relatively slow pace, I'm liking the value here.

I had this one at 137 points. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks and Cal Bears have what I believe are the two best defenses in the Pac 12 (Arizona may factor in there as well). Oregon is actually playing slower than the average team in the country now. Cal is 303rd in tempo out of 351, and the Bears will certainly want to slow this game down.

Cal is much weaker offensively this year, because they are too reliant on Ivan Rabb. The outside game has been inconsistent from Cal, and Oregon has the length on the inside to slow down Rabb.

I had this game lined at 127 points. I expect both defenses to give their opposition a hard time in the halfcourt sets tonight.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Not many teams are playing any defense in the Summit League this year. North Dakota State is the rare team who always works hard on defense though. North Dakota State will want to slow this game down and use their strong defense to beat a very good Fort Wayne team here. 

North Dakota State was in the same position last year when they hosted a very good Fort Wayne team, and North Dakota State stalled the game out and won 62-46. I don't expect a score that low in this one, but I do think 152.5 is too high.

The home team controls the pace more often than not, and North Dakota State can't let this become a track meet. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Siena Saints will be without their best guard, Marquis Wright for this game. He is suspended for this contest. Siena is also without star guard Nico Clareth. The Saints have slowed down their pace without Clareth, and I think they'll play really slowly tonight with Wright also missing.

St. Peter's is the slowest paced team in the MAAC. They are going to want a very slow paced game. They also rank first in the league in defensive efficiency. Siena ranks second in this category. 

In the last 7 games between these two teams, only one of them has gone over the posted total. I like this to be a sloppy game with Siena short handed and St. Peter's happy to win a low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This is a numbers play based on recency lowering this total too much. SIU Edwardsville has had some terrible shooting numbers in recent games. They have shot no better than 30% from 3 point range in any of their last five games. In 3 of the five, they have shot 25% or worse from 3.  SIU Edwardsville is shooting 30.2% from 3 on the year, and I would expect them to have some better shooting numbers coming soon just based on regression to the mean.

SIU Edwardsville is third in the nation in free throw attempts, and Southeast Missouri State fouls a bunch. In fact, both teams in this matchup do a ton of fouling, and that could be key with a spread set right around the key fouling marks at the end of the game. What do I mean by that? Games often become foul fests late when one team is ahead by 6 to 10 points, and this spread falls right in that range. In those games, the over has a little extra value to me.

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The LaSalle Explorers have been shooting lights out of late. There's no doubt this team is improved when it comes to shooting the ball, but they aren't as good as they have shot lately. 

LaSalle has been slowing down the tempo of late. They are playing at only 67.8 possessions in the conference. Davidson is playing at exactly the same pace. We shouldn't see either team forcing the tempo here. 

The perception of Davidson is that of a team that shoots the ball extremely well and doesn't defend. That isn't the case this year. Davidson is much improved on defense and their shooting numbers are way down across the board. They are also playing a little more than 2 possessions slower than last year.

I think this game plays to a pace of about 67 possessions. For this one to get over the posted total, there would have to be some really good shooting numbers. 

I had this one at 149 points. Take the under big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins have played 18 games this year. Only 3 of them have gone over 150 points in regulation. Maryland is a really good defensive team and they are giving up only 0.96 points per possession inside the Big Ten. 

Iowa has played fast in the conference, but they have also played Purdue twice. Purdue is the fastest paced team in the league. Those two games finished at 156 and 161 points. Maryland isn't going to play at all like Purdue did, and yet this total isn't much lower.

Maryland is the 11th fastest team in the Big Ten. The Terrapins will slow the game down and try to win with their defense. Iowa doesn't really have good scoring options outside of Peter Jok. I don't see Iowa lighting up this defense.

A close hard fought game that stays under the total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Jose State Spartans are averaging 3 more possessions per game this year than they did last season. This San Jose State team has picked up the pace and once they start knocking some shots down they are going to be a good over team.

San Jose State has been poor on offense as far as efficiency overall this year, but in their last game they scored 1.31 points per possession at Air Force. The Spartans have some young guys who have a reputation for being shooters, and they are starting to produce. I think it is a good buy low time for this offense being able to score.

Wyoming averaged 66 possessions per game last year in the Mountain West Conference. They are averaging a whopping 79 possessions per game this year. This team is running and gunning, and I see no slowing them down here. Wyoming has played three of their last six games at a tempo of 82 possessions or faster. That ranks in the top three in the nation.

It isn't often that you'll find a total of only 152 with a projected tempo of almost 80 possessions, but that is what we have here. 

I had this one at 157 points. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave are just awful on defense. Tulane ranks 301st in the nation in defensive efficiency. Tulane continues to run though. They are playing faster than anyone else in the American Athletic Conference. The Green Wave are averaging 72.4 possessions per game inside the conference.

Tulane also fouls more than any other team in the conference. That's great news for Tulsa, since they get to the line at a high rate, and they shoot an amazing 81% from the line in the conference. Tulsa should get a bunch of free points from the stripe in this one.

Tulsa has been slowed down by most teams they have played of late, and that gives us value on the over. Tulane will allow Tulsa to get out in transition as they normally like to do.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Tech Red Raiders are allowing only 0.881 points per possession on their home floor this year. Chris Beard is doing an amazing job with this Red Raiders team. They are buying in on the defensive end in a big way. West Virginia scored only 66 points in regulation at Texas Tech. Kansas State scored only 65 points at Texas Tech. 

TCU gave up 1.10 points per possession in conference last year. This year, Jamie Dixon has them playing some great defense. They rank 28th in the nation in defensive efficiency and they are allowing only 1.03 points per possession in conference play. 

Texas Tech is averaging only 64.5 possessions per game, so they are definitely slowing the game down. Look for this to be a very close game.

Both teams foul less than the average team in the country.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I developed a system I've had my eye on lately where I look to play the under with a large spread and a high total. This one fits the system. 

In the long run, this has been a solid winning system. The large spread is important because it usually takes excessive fouling late in the game out of the picture.

Oklahoma's offensive efficiency has tanked this year, and these two have a history of playing lower than expected games against each other.

Three times these teams met last year, and the highest total was 138 points.

Both teams are much more consistent on defense than offense. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks and Florida Gators are both elite defenses. South Carolina ranks second in the country in defensive efficiency. Florida ranks 21st. Both defenses will give the opposing offense a lot of trouble in this contest.

While both offenses play somewhat fast, the two defenses are excellent at slowing down the pace of the game just by how strong they are defensively. 

Last year's game between these two had the game at 64-64 before OT. The defenses are even better this year, and I think this line is a few points too high.

I had this one at 131.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The San Antonio Spurs are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Phoenix Suns. San Antonio has historically been a great under bet in this situation. 

The Spurs have an elite defense, and when they are motivated, that defense looks even better. San Antonio ranks third in the NBA in defensive efficiency on the year. 

It may surprise you to hear that Minnesota ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the last 10 games. The Timberwolves are starting to buy into what Tom Thibodeau is selling them on that end of the floor.

Minnesota has slowed down their pace of play drastically as well. The Wolves are 28th in the NBA in pace in the last 10 games. The Spurs are 26th. 

We have a total of 202.5 with two defenses playing great and with two teams who consistently slow the pace down.

I think the Spurs hold the Timberwolves to a low number here. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears defense has been exceptional this year. Baylor ranks sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. Combine that with the fact that Baylor ranks 326th in the nation in tempo, and Baylor holds teams to some very low point totals. 

Texas is without two of their best guards (Tevin Mack and Kendal Yancy) and those two will be badly missed against this defense. The Longhorns offense has had trouble getting their act together all year, but this team is playing some very good defense. Texas is 26th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Look for Baylor to be the team in control in this one. The Bears want to play the game slowly, and they should get their way. I expect them to get out to a lead early and hold Texas to a low number here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Monroe Warhawks have excelled when it comes to slowing the game down and forcing the opponent to play their style. Monroe isn't any good on offense, and the only chance they have in games is to slow it down and make it sloppy. 

In their last nine games, LA Monroe hasn't had a game go above this posted total in regulation. In fact, only one of those nine games has been above 134 in regulation. Monroe is averaging only 0.878 points per possession inside the Sun Belt, which is easily the worst offensive mark in the league. GA Southern is the number one ranked team in the conference as far as defensive efficiency. 

GA Southern does play faster, but this will be the first team they have played in the conference that wants to slow the pace down. I don't think Monroe will let this be a track meet.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Wizards host the Portland Blazers in an early tip game for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Washington and Portland both started the year by playing terribly on the defensive end. Things have looked better from them both defensively of late.

Washington is 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past nine games. Portland is 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the NBA in the past 9 games. That's important because Washington is 18th and Portland is 27th on the season. Both teams have been putting more effort in on the defensive end.

These teams are a little above average offensively, but not elite. They both play just a tick faster than the average team in the NBA. 

A total of 220 is usually saved for games between teams that run like crazy and play almost no defense. I don't think that is the case here.

MLK Day early games have been solid under trends during the past ten years. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks meet early on Monday. These two teams have met twice this year and neither game has gotten even close to this posted total. The two games have been 198 and 200 (in overtime). 

This is an early start on MLK Day, which helps the under in my opinion. This is something that has shown to be true through the years. 

Atlanta ranks first in the NBA in defensive efficiency over the last eight games. The Knicks are in the middle of the pack. Both teams are middle of the pack or lower in offensive efficiency. Neither team is pushing the pace all that much.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Steelers/Chiefs CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night in Kansas City. This game time was changed because of the likelihood of freezing rain earlier in the day. 

Even with the time change, the weather won't be good for this game. There is currently listed a 90% chance of rain Sunday night. The wind gusts will be up to 12 mph, which certainly isn't a lot, but it can make it more difficult to throw, especially when combined with the rain. 

The time change did move some people to bet the over, and give us a little more value on the under here. The number was 43.5 earlier today, but has now risen to 45 at several books. 

Ben Roethlisberger was dinged up playing late into the game last week despite the Steelers holding a big lead. Whether he is 100% or not no one really knows, but the weather will make it tougher on him. 

I expect Kansas City to play a little bit of keep away here. They know Pittsburgh's offense is very good, and I think Kansas City will want to win the time of possession battle and keep Le'Veon Bell, Roethlisberger, and Antonio Brown off the field. 

The Chiefs defense excels at rushing the passer, and Justin Houston is healthy now. The Chiefs defense wasn't nearly as healthy in their first meeting of the season with Pittsburgh.

Both of these defenses played their best football late in the year. 

The under is 38-16 in the Chiefs last 54 home games. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Cal Poly tried to push the tempo some last year and it didn't work at all for them. The Mustangs are back to stalling again this year. UCSB is always happy to slow things down as well.

So far this year inside the conference, UCSB is averaging a miserable 0.83 points per possession. The Gauchos are very short handed and they have good scoring options other than Vincent. 

Look for this game to be played at a very slow pace. Without some far above average shooting numbers, I think it stays under the posted total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Brown Bears are the fastest paced team in the Ivy League. Brown will look to push the tempo all the time in this one. Brown ranks 52nd in the nation in overall tempo. The Bears also allow 1.142 points per possession which is one of the worst marks in the country. Clearly, Brown is a very bad defense.

Penn moves at an average pace on offense, but they have struggled shooting the ball of late. I think their shooting numbers will be a lot better against a team like Brown. 

Last year's meetings finished at 153 and 172 points. They were similar teams last year. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* 

Santa Clara is great at dictating tempo, and I think they'll do exactly that here. Pepperdine has been slowing down of late in terms of tempo. 

Santa Clara has one of the best defenses in the conference, and they never get to the free throw line. That's a great combination for under bettors. 

I had this number at 131 and I see there is a huge public/sharp split on the numbers here with the sharp bettors taking the under. I'll go that way as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a rivalry game in Arkansas. The Little Rock Trojans play at the slowest pace of any team in the Sun Belt conference. Little Rock is going to slow this game down.

Arkansas State has tended to prefer slowing the game down this year as well, and I don't think they'll force the issue here. Arkansas State is much better on defense than they are on offense. The Red Wolves defense should give the Trojans offense a difficult task in this one.

I think it being a rivalry game helps the under here. The defenses get better in a game that means more, at least in general they do. 

I had this game at 131 points, so I see solid value. Take the under. 

*5 Star CBB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Missouri Tigers both want to run. This game will be played at a ridiculously fast pace. 

Arkansas has been 23rd fastest when it comes to average possession length this year. Missouri is 53rd quickest.

Missouri has decided to play much quicker of late. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 78.2 possessions per game in SEC play. Only three teams in the country have been faster during that time span. 

Both Arkansas and Missouri foul a lot. There should be a ton of trips to the charity stripe here. These two teams don't like each other, and the officials will likely want to have a quick whistle in this contest.

Missouri's offense has gotten a boost from Texas transfer Jordan Barnett being inserted into the lineup. Missouri has consistently pressed and played very fast when down in the second half, and I think they'll be down in the second half here. 

I had this projected at 153-154 points. The tempo should get us there.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Under* The James Madison Dukes have carved out a nice gameplan inside the conference. They have decided to slow things down and use a strong defense to win low scoring contests. It has been working pretty well. 

James Madison has played their last four games at the following possessions (pace): 64, 64, 61, and 59. This one should be slow as well. Elon is playing much slower than last year, and the Phoenix aren't likely to push the pace too much here.

James Madison is the top ranked defense in the conference, and that defense should be tough for Elon to score on here. 

I see a close low scoring game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The College of Charleston Cougars are great at controlling the tempo of the game. Here, they play against a very quick team in William & Mary. I'm counting on C of C playing this game on their terms on their home court. 

College of Charleston's home game against William & Mary last year went nearly 20 points under this total. The C of C defense is the best in the conference. William & Mary excels at 3 point shooting, but C of C has the best 3 point defense in the country (opponents shooting only 27%).

This number is several points too high. I had this at 134. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida State Seminoles are much improved this year, and they are playing faster than ever. Florida State ranked 51st out of 351 teams last year in average possession length on offense. This year they rank 15th in that category. North Carolina is 10th.

This game should be an all out track meet. Last year's meeting between these two was 106-90 North Carolina, and that game saw a mind blowing 88 possessions. That is just about NBA pace right there (and the NBA plays more minutes obviously).

North Carolina can take advantage of Florida State's one major weakness. UNC is great on the offensive glass, and FSU is weak when it comes to defensive rebounding. 

I think Florida State's guards can do some damage here though, and I see both teams scoring a bunch.

Take the over.