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Kyle Hunter ALL Sports Totals Picks
Date Match Up Rating Score Result Profit Lead Time Analysis
04-29-12 OAK ATHLETICS v. Baltimore Orioles UNDER 8 2-5 Win 100 13 h 47 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Oakland Athletics have one of the worst offenses in the American League. Tommy Hunter has an ERA under 1 at home this year. Hunter should be able to slow down the A's offense here. Bartolo Colon has been terrific so far this year. The under is 21-8-1 in the A's last 30 games. The under is 4-1 in Colon's last 5 starts. The under is 5-1 in the Orioles last 6 games. Look for both pitchers to fare well in this one. I think this is a 3-2 type of game. I like the value on the under.
04-29-12 Pittsburgh Pirates v. Atlanta Braves UNDER 7.5 3-4 Win 100 12 h 10 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* This is a very nice setup for the under. Doug Eddings is the single biggest under umpire in the majors. Tim Hudson has pitched six games with Eddings behind the plate, and he has an ERA of 1.26 in those games. Kevin Correia has an ERA of 2.75 at Atlanta in his career. The under is 6-0-1 in Pittsburgh's last 7 games following a win. The under is 4-0 in Hudson's last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in Correia's last 4 road games. The under is 6-0 in Eddings last 6 games behind the plate with Pittsburgh. In all, we have a 20-0 angle backing this. Take the under.
04-28-12 Arizona Diamondbacks v. MIA MARLINS UNDER 7.5 2-3 Win 100 17 h 24 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Ian Kennedy nearly won the NL Cy Young award last year. He hasn't been stellar this year, but I think he'll improve. Kennedy will be a in pitcher's ballpark in Miami on Saturday. The Marlins offense has really struggled of late. Anibal Sanchez is a solid pitcher for the Marlins as well, and the DBacks lineup isn't nearly as good without Chris Young and Stephen Drew. This seems like a good opportunity for a 3-2 type game. Look for this one to fall under the posted total. Take the under.
04-28-12 Detroit: D Smyly v. New York (A): F Garcia OVER 10.5 7-5 Win 100 16 h 11 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* This is a very high total, but both of these teams are capable of scoring a ton of runs. Five of the Yankees last nine games have had at least 11 runs scored. Four of the Tigers last eight games have had at least 11 runs scored. Smyly is a decent prospect, but the Yankees should get to him pretty nicely. Garcia looks bad this year, and the Tigers offense is liable to knock him out very early. The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4. The over is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 home games. The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two in New York. Take the over.
04-26-12 San Antonio Spurs v. Golden State Warriors OVER 207 107-101 Win 100 8 h 30 m Show
*3 Star NBA on TNT Total* The Spurs and the Warriors will play in the final game of the NBA regular season on TNT Thursday night. San Antonio will be resting a ton of starters in this one, but even when the Spurs rest their starters they have plenty of guys who can score in the lineup. The Spurs have scored at least 110 points in each of their past six games. Golden State plays at a quick pace, and the last time these teams met the score was 120-93. I expect a quick tempo here and very little defense. The over is 6-0 in the Spurs last 6 against teams with a winning % less than 40%. The over is 14-4 in the last 18 meetings between these two in Golden State. Take the over.
04-26-12 Boston Red Sox v. Chicago White Sox OVER 8 10-3 Win 100 20 h 40 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Boston has scored 33 runs in their last 4 games. The Red Sox offense is hotter than any other offense in the majors. Humber is a solid pitcher, but we often see a pitcher coming off perfection struggle in the next game. Against a tough lineup like the Red Sox, I don't expect Humber to be too good here. Doubront isn't dominating at all, and the White Sox should put up a few runs as well. The over is 33-16-3 in the Red Sox last 52. The over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two. Take the over.
04-26-12 Miami Heat v. Washington Wizards UNDER 185 70-104 Win 100 6 h 51 m Show
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Miami Heat have nothing to play for right now, and they will be resting all their best players. LeBron, DWade, and Bosh will all sit. When these three sat last game the Heat put up 66 points. Washington has been a great 'under' team since their coaching change mid-season. The under is 18-6 in the Wizards last 24. The under is 34-16-2 in the Heat's last 52 games. Look for some sloppy basketball here that leads to a very low scoring game. I like the value on the under in this one.
04-26-12 Philadelphia 76ers v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 184 86-108 Loss -110 6 h 41 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Philadelphia 76ers won't be playing many key players at all tonight. They would prefer to get the Chicago Bulls in the first round of the playoffs. Philly has a tough time scoring even with their starters in the lineup, and without them I think they'll put up a very low total here. Detroit isn't a team that dictates a fast pace at all either. The previous three regular season meetings between these teams have all finished far below the posted total. Look for this one to stay well below the total as well.
04-26-12 Seattle: H Noesi v. Detroit: R Porcello OVER 9 5-4 Push 0 13 h 37 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Rick Porcello is an inconsistent pitcher. He was lit up in a big way last time. I expect better from him here, but Seattle should score a few. Detroit's offense has slumped a bit of late, but I think this is the perfect chance for them to wake up. Noesi doesn't have dominating stuff, and this will feel like a cake walk vs. going against King Felix like they did yesterday. We have a nice 'over' umpire in Jim Reynolds as well. The over is 6-1 in Reynolds last 7 games behind the plate. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
04-25-12 Los Angeles Angels v. Tampa Bay Rays UNDER 7.5 2-3 Win 100 17 h 35 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Jeremy Hellickson has been tremendous in his young career. Hellickson has terrific numbers at home, where his ERA is under 3. The Angels aren't hitting the ball very well at all right now. C.J. Wilson was the prize pitching acquisition of the offseason and he has been very good. I think this one has all the makings of a pitcher's duel. The under is 15-3 in Hellickson's last 18 home starts. The under is 5-1 in the Angels last 6 games overall. Look for a very low scoring game here.
04-25-12 San Francisco Giants v. Cincinnati Reds OVER 8 2-4 Loss -119 16 h 29 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Barry Zito has been pretty good so far this year, but past history tells us Zito could implode at any point. The Reds have a strong lineup against left-handed pitchers. Zito has struggled in the past against the Reds. The over is 5-2 in Zito's last 7 starts against the Reds. Cincinnati's offense has been in a slump, but they put up 9 runs last night. Don't be surprised if this team gets hot offensively now. Bronson Arroyo gives up more home runs than anyone, and GABP is a hitter's dream. Take the over.
04-24-12 Philadelphia Phillies v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9 8-5 Win 100 20 h 9 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* I absolutely love playing the 'over' at Chase Field with the roof open. The ball falls out of this stadium in a big way when there is heat and low humidity. Game time temperature is expected to be in the low 90's with low humidity here. Josh Collmenter has been getting blasted all through Spring Training and then into the regular season. It seems hitters are onto his odd delivery. Vance Worley is a pretty good pitcher, but the DBacks should put up some runs here, especially with Upton back in the lineup. Take the over.
04-24-12 Los Angeles Clippers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 193 102-109 Loss -110 5 h 20 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Clippers and the Hawks both have plenty to play for in this game. Both currently have home court advantage in the playoffs, but they could lose it if they play poorly to finish out the regular season. Higher scoring games have been common in the NBA over the last couple weeks, but those have primarily been in games where teams had nothing to play for. Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo compared to the NBA average. Look for both defenses to work hard in this one. The first meeting between these two this year finished at 178 points. Take the under here.
04-23-12 Cleveland Cavaliers v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 191 101-109 Loss -110 5 h 45 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* Brent Barnaky is the lead official for this one. The under is 30-9 in his 39 games officiated this year. Memphis isn't a team that likes to push the pace, and they have been playing very good defense of late. I don't think the Cavs have anything to play for here, and they would actually be better off losing to increase their lottery chances. I don't expect to see either team pushing it in this one. Look for a little bit of a lazy game with sloppy offense. The under is 4-0 in the Grizzlies last 4 games against the Eastern Conference. Take the under.
04-22-12 Orlando Magic v. Denver Nuggets OVER 203.5 74-101 Loss -110 18 h 9 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* Dwight Howard is out for the season. That certainly isn't good for Orlando's chances of going anywhere in the playoffs, but it does mean they play higher scoring games. The team is more of a run and gun team now. Denver plays at a faster tempo than anyone else in the NBA. The over is 8-0 in the Magic's last 8 games against the Western Conference. The over is also 4-0 in Orlando's last 4 as the underdog. Look for a quick paced game where neither team tries particularly hard on defense. Take the over.
04-22-12 Baltimore Orioles v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8 3-2 Loss -100 14 h 20 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Both of these teams have better offenses than they do defenses or pitching staffs at this point. Chen has been solid in his first couple starts, but the Angels offense is much better than they have shown this year and I think they'll get to him here. Haren hasn't been particularly sharp this year and the Orioles have several guys hitting the ball very well right now. Angel Campos is a solid 'over' umpire and the wind is blowing out in this one. Take the over here.
04-22-12 Minnesota Twins v. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5 2-6 Loss -104 12 h 27 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Francisco Liriano has been a disaster so far this year. He has a WHIP well over 2, and everyone who has seen him has been teeing off on his pitches. Tampa Bay is hitting the ball well so far this year. Jeff Niemann is a solid pitcher, but the Twins should be able to score some here. Mark Wegner is a favorable umpire for the over because of his small strike zone. The over is 6-0 in Liriano's last 6 road starts. The over is 4-0 in Tampa Bay's last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 games. Take the over.
04-21-12 San Francisco Giants v. New York Mets UNDER 7.5 4-5 Loss -100 11 h 33 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The San Francisco Giants do not have a strong offense. This team will likely struggle to score all year. In the Giants last 8 games, none of them have gone above 7 runs in total. San Francisco's pitching staff is very good. Ryan Vogelsong is still underrated by the oddsmakers. The under is 20-7 in his last 27 starts. Mike Pelfrey is tough to get a read on, but I expect him to be helped in a big way by Doug Eddings. Eddings is the single best 'under' umpire in baseball because of his huge strike zone. The under is 4-1-1 in Pelfrey's last 6 starts against the Giants. Take the under.
04-19-12 Milwaukee Bucks v. Indiana Pacers OVER 203 109-118 Win 100 29 h 36 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* For quite some time now the Milwaukee Bucks have been my favorite 'over' team. This team is running and gunning with the best of them right now. They lost last night 121-112 to Washington. This past Saturday the Bucks and Pacers met. The score finished 105-99. In that game, the teams went into a horrible drought in the fourth quarter and actually went three minutes without scoring a point. Expect both teams to shoot a better percentage here. The pace should still be very quick. The over is 14-3 in the Bucks last 17 following a game where they allowed 100 points or more. The over is 11-3 in their last 14 road games. Take the over here.
04-19-12 Cincinnati: B Arroyo v. St Louis: Wainwright OVER 7.5 6-3 Win 100 10 h 56 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Bronson Arroyo is definitely a fly ball pitcher. Arroyo gave up a ridiculous 46 home runs last year. The wind will be blowing out nicely at Saint Louis Thursday afternoon. The Cardinals have plenty of guys who are capable of going deep. Adam Wainwright doesn't look right on the mount just yet. The Reds offense has struggled this year, but they have too much talent to put up nothing offensively every single game. Look for them to get going a bit against Wainwright here. Take the over.
04-18-12 Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 192 110-117 Loss -105 19 h 21 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* There isn't a more important game on Wednesday's NBA slate as far as playoff implications than this matchup. The Rockets have been falling fast and hard, and they sit in the 9th spot just out of the playoffs right now. Dallas is far from comfortably in. In fact, after their Triple Overtime loss at Utah they are just 1.5 games ahead of the Rockets and the Suns. This game should have a playoff atmosphere to it. Easy baskets should be difficult to come by. The first two games between these two went well under this total in regulation. Look for a defensive battle. Take the under.
04-18-12 Milwaukee Bucks v. Washington Wizards OVER 203 112-121 Win 100 28 h 22 m Show
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Bucks have been my single favorite 'over' team all year. Milwaukee pushes the pace more now with Monta Ellis in the fold, and this team can put up the points in bunches. The last time these teams met the final score was 112-98. Washington doesn't play good defense, and the Wizards aren't good at controlling the tempo. The Bucks should be able to dictate the pace in this game. The over is 10-3 in Milwaukee's last 13 road games. The over is 31-14 in the Bucks last 45 games overall. Take the over.
04-18-12 Pittsburgh Pirates v. Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 2-1 Loss -108 14 h 30 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Chase Field becomes a hitters paradise when the roof is open. It is even better for hitters during the day time. This game will be played in temperatures above 90 degrees with low humidity, so the ball should carry extremely well. The over is 12-2 in the last 14 day games at Arizona with the roof open. The over is 6-0 in the Diamondbacks last 6 games with the total set at 7-8.5 runs. Both teams should be able to put up runs in this environment. Look for this one to get over the posted total.
04-17-12 Minnesota: F Liriano v. New York (A): C Sabathia OVER 8.5 3-8 Win 100 18 h 55 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Francisco Liriano isn't right so far this season. There might not be a pitcher in the majors who can be hot then cold more than Liriano. In bad form, he is extremely bad. The Yankees lineup is tough on lefties, and I think they'll knock him out of this game early. C.C. Sabathia has an ERA over 6 so far this season. The over is 5-0 in Liriano's last 5 road starts. The over is 4-0 in Sabathia's last 4 starts overall. The over is 10-2 in Sabathia's last 12 against the AL Central. The over is 4-1 in Sabathia's last 5 against the Twins. Backed by a 23-3 winning angle, I like the over in this one.
04-16-12 New Orleans Hornets v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 186 75-67 Win 100 17 h 3 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* This will be an extremely ugly game, and I don't advise anyone actually watch this game. Having said that, I do believe there is plenty of value on the total in this game. The first meeting between these two teams finished at 144 points. That is about what an average college basketball game would finish at. The two teams will certainly shoot better than they did in that one, but this line is 42 points higher than that final total. New Orleans is giving up just 87.8 points per game in their last five. The Bobcats are averaging just 84.8 points in their last five. The under is 13-3 in the Hornets last 16 following a straight up win by 10 or more. The under is also 4-1 in the Hornets last 5 games. Take the under.
04-16-12 Atlanta Hawks v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 182.5 109-87 Loss -105 7 h 55 m Show
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* I had the 'under' last night in the Hawks/Raptors game. I took a tough loss on that one thanks to a boat load of scoring at the end of the game and some red hot shooting from the Raptors. I'm going back to the under in this game. I simply don't think a short-handed Toronto team can shoot 55.4% from the floor again. In addition, there were 54 free throws taken last night. I expect fewer in this game. The Hawks need to win this game, and I expect their defense to be the difference here. The under is 5-0 in Toronto's last 5 home games. Take the under.
04-15-12 LA Anaheim: J Williams v. New York (A): I Nova OVER 10 5-11 Win 102 19 h 6 m Show
*3 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total* Los Angeles and New York have two of the best lineups in all of baseball. Albert Pujols hasn't had a breakout game yet, but he will soon. The Angels should be able to get to Ivan Nova, especially with the wind blowing out at gametime. Jerome Williams isn't really a starting pitcher in the majors, and I think he'll struggle badly against this loaded Yankees lineup. The over is 7-3-1 in Nova's last 11 home games. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in New York. Look for a high scoring game. Take the over.
04-15-12 Toronto Raptors v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 184.5 102-86 Loss -105 18 h 34 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* In two meetings this season the Raptors and Hawks finished with a total of 177 points two times. The posted total here is 184.5 despite the fact that Toronto will be without leading scorer Andrea Bargnani. Without him in the lineup, the Raptors move much slower and get less good looks at the basket. The Hawks are a defensive-minded team. Atlanta should buckle down and hold Toronto around 80 points in this one. The under is 7-1 in the Raptors last 8 games overall. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the under.
04-15-12 Pittsburgh: K Correia v. San Francisco: Vogelsong OVER 7 Top 4-1 Loss -100 16 h 53 m Show
*5 Star MLB Total Domination* The total is set very low in this one. I understand why the books set the total low because both offenses aren't very good, but there are several factors working for the over in this one. The wind is blowing out 10 mph. Tim McClelland is the home plate umpire, and he has one of the smallest strike zones of any umpire. Both pitches rely heavily on getting the corners, and I don't they will here. Ryan Vogelsong has a career ERA of almost 6 against the Pirates. The over is 9-3 in Correia's last 12 starts. I think this one is a run or two too low. Take the over!
04-15-12 Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 Top 13-7 Win 100 14 h 14 m Show
*5 Star MLB Top Total* The Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals game was my 5 Star Top Total play of the day yesterday. That one worked out well as the final was 11-9. I don't expect anything silly high like that again, but there are tons of factors pointing toward another over. Ubaldo Jimenez has not been good on the road in his time with Cleveland. Mendoza has looked solid for KC, but he is untested. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 25-30 mph in this game. Both teams can put up the runs. The over is 8-0 in the Royals last 8 home games. The over is 6-0 in Jimenez's last 6 road starts. The over is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 road games against a team with a losing home record. Take the over big here!
04-15-12 Milwaukee: C Narveson v. Atlanta: B Beachy OVER 8.5 4-7 Win 105 13 h 23 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Total* The Atlanta Braves have a solid lineup. Through the first few games of the year they weren't showing their potential much at all, but the last couple games they are bashing the baseball. They put up 8 runs last night, and I think they could put up a big number here again. Chris Narveson has been poor on the road in the past, and I see no reason to believe that changes here. Milwaukee has one of the better lineups in the National League, and they should be able to score some against a mediocre pitcher like Beachy. The over is 5-0 in Beachy's last 5 home starts. The over is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 games. The over is 7-0 in Narveson's last 7 road games with a total between 7 and 8.5. The over is 5-0-1 in the Brewers last 6 Sunday games. A combined 22-0 winning angle here! Take the over here.
04-15-12 Cincinnati: M Leake v. Washington: R Detwiler UNDER 8 8-5 Loss -117 13 h 11 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Cincinnati Reds have been one of the most disappointing teams in Major League Baseball so far this year. The Reds lineup has been terrible of late. They have scored more than 4 runs just once all season. Mike Leake is a solid young pitcher who does a good job keeping the ball down. He should fare well in Washington. Ross Detwiler is an improving pitcher who I believe will bring some good value to the under this season. The under is 18-7-4 in the teams last 29 meetings. Take the under.
04-14-12 Indiana Pacers v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 206.5 105-99 Loss -105 20 h 36 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Bucks continue to be my single favorite team in the NBA to play the 'over' with. The Bucks have scored 100 points or more in 7 of their last 10 games. Indiana has been scoring at a nice clip of late too. The Pacers have piled up at least 100 points in 8 of their last 9 games. The over is 7-1 in the Pacers last 8 games. The over is 20-7 in the Bucks last 27 home games. It is also 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two. The last meeting finished at 229 points. Look for a high scoring game. Take the over.
04-14-12 Cleveland Indians v. Kansas City Royals OVER 8.5 Top 11-9 Win 100 19 h 46 m Show
*5 Star MLB Top Total* The Cleveland Indians took it to Luke Hochevar early yesterday. Johnathan Sanchez toes the hill in this one for the Royals. Sanchez is capable of melting down too, especially with his control problems. Jeanmar Gomez has never had much success on the road in his career. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 20 mph here. Both lineups are improved this year. The trends here are amazing, and they can't be overlooked. The over is 5-0 in Gomez's last 5 road starts. The over is 7-0 in the Royals last 7 home games. The over is 5-0 in the Indians last 5 Saturday games. The over is 3-0 in Gary Darling's last 3 games behind home plate. A PERFECT 20-0 angle backs this one. Take the over big here.
04-14-12 DET TIGERS v. Chicago White Sox OVER 9 1-5 Loss -105 16 h 36 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Adam Wilk makes his Major League debut in this game for the Tigers. Wilk is a solid prospect, but I'm not sure he's ready for the big leagues just yet. Starting in Chicago against a White Sox lineup that is actually hitting pretty well right now isn't a particularly easy spot for the kid. At the same time, Gavin Floyd is capable of getting roughed up. The Tigers have one of the best lineups in all of baseball. The over is 9-3-1 in Floyd's last 13 home starts. The over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams. Take the over.
04-14-12 Cincinnati: H Bailey v. Washington: E Jackson OVER 8 1-4 Loss -100 15 h 0 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The first two games between these teams were very low scoring, but I think this sets us up with a very nice value here. Homer Bailey has never been consistent enough to be considered a good pitcher in the majors. Bailey has an ERA of nearly 7 in April during his career. Edwin Jackson has been hit hard early in the season as well. Both bullpens were used a lot the last couple days, and that could get us an extra run or two in this game. The wind is blowing out and we have a favorable umpire. Take the over.
04-14-12 Golden State Warriors v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 197 104-112 Loss -110 15 h 30 m Show
*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* I always take an extra hard look at early Saturday or Sunday tip times in the NBA. These games go 'under' the posted total more often than not. The Clippers and Warriors are playing a very rare 12:30 pm local time Saturday afternoon game here. Both teams will likely be a little less likely to push the pace in this one. The Clippers defense has improved a ton over the last few games. The under is 5-1 in the Warriors last 6. The under is 3-1-1 in the Clippers last 5. Take the under.
04-13-12 Milwaukee Bucks v. Detroit Pistons OVER 197 113-97 Win 100 29 h 45 m Show
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Milwaukee Bucks are my single favorite team in the league to play the 'over' with right now. The Bucks are pushing the pace in a big way with Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis in the backcourt. Detroit has been scoring more points of late, especially at home. The Pistons are allowing 101.4 points per game in their last five. Milwaukee has scored 100 or more in 6 of their last 9 games overall. The over is 9-3 in the Bucks last 12 road games. The over is 10-1 in the Pistons last 11 when playing on no rest. I'd play this one all the way up to 203. Take the over here.
04-13-12 Boston Celtics v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 177.5 79-84 Win 100 19 h 45 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* Toronto is short-handed right now. Andrea Bargnani won't be available in this one, and he is the team's leading scorer. Jose Calderon, Amir Johnson, and Leinas Kleiza are also dinged up. Ray Allen will miss this game for the Celtics. These teams have played three times this year and none of the games have gone above 169 points. With so many starters out here, it's hard to imagine this one becoming a high scoring game. Boston is winning with defense now, and they should hold Toronto's weak offense down. The under is 6-1 in the Celtics last 7 on 1 day of rest. The under is 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 on 1 day of rest. The under is also 4-0 in the Raptors last 4 home games. Take the under.
04-12-12 Los Angeles Clippers v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 194.5 95-82 Win 100 8 h 54 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* Kevin Love went down with a concussion in last night's loss at Denver. Minnesota is already without Ricky Rubio and now without Love they'll be very short-handed. Darko, Luke Ridnour, and Wayne Ellington are all listed as questionable. The Clippers have been playing better of late, and I think their defense will slow this game down. The three referees in this one have a big lean to the under. The under is a combined 75-48 in their 123 games officiated this season. The under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between these two in Minnesota. Take the under.
04-12-12 San Francisco Giants v. Colorado Rockies OVER 9.5 Top 4-2 Loss -120 13 h 1 m Show
*5 Star MLB Top Total* The 17-8 run scoring fest in Coors Field shows just what this ballpark can do to pitchers who aren't on their game. Lincecum and Guthrie seems like a great pitching matchup compared to Bumgarner and Moyer. Jamie Moyer is 49 years old and I find it hard to believe he can shut down anyone right now. Moyer has an ERA above 10 at Coors Field, and now he has to call it home. Bumgarner is a pretty good pitcher, but his ERA is over 6 in April in his young career. The over is 8-0 in Bumgarner's last 8 road starts. The over is 13-3 in the Rockies last 16 as a home underdog. Take the over big in this one!
04-12-12 Seattle: J Vargas v. Texas: D Holland UNDER 9.5 3-5 Win 100 12 h 49 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value Play* Doug Eddings has been the most consistent 'under' umpire in baseball over the past few years. No one has a bigger strike zone than Eddings, and that should help both of these pitchers a lot. Vargas improved a ton at the end of last year, and he has had success against Texas. Derek Holland can be lights out when he is on, and Seattle's lineup isn't very good at all. The under is 7-1 in the Rangers last 8 home games. The under is 4-1 in Vargas' last 5 starts in Texas. I like the value on the under here.
04-11-12 Minnesota Timberwolves v. Denver Nuggets UNDER 214 107-113 Loss -110 9 h 30 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* Minnesota has really fallen off a cliff of late. Ricky Rubio's absence has been too much for the team to overcome. The Wolves have lost six straight contests. The under is 6-2 in their last 8 games. The offense just isn't clicking the way it was earlier in the season. Denver's defense has been slightly better of late. The Nuggets are giving up 98.1 points per game in their last five games. The under is a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 games. It is also 6-0 in their last 6 games as the favorite. Take the under in this one.
04-11-12 Los Angeles Lakers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 202.5 98-84 Win 100 7 h 12 m Show
*3 Star NBA Totals Takedown* The Lakers will be without Kobe in this one. Mike Brown ripped the team after their loss to Phoenix. Brown wants this team to be about defense, but they were getting away from that. I expect the Lakers to slow the pace down and look to make this a defensive battle with the Spurs. The referees in this one have a combined record of 75-47 to the 'under' this year. This is a pretty high total considering Bryant won't play in this game. I like the pace to stay slower than expected. Take the under.
04-11-12 Atlanta: R Delgado v. Houston: W Rodriguz OVER 7.5 6-3 Win 100 19 h 23 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Sam Holbrook is a huge 'over' umpire. Holbrook has one of the smallest strike zones in the major leagues, and that will hurt both of these pitchers who work the edges of the strike zone. Wandy Rodriguez is a very good pitcher, but several of the current Braves players have had nice success against him. Randall Delgado isn't consistent enough to be a solid MLB starter just yet. The Braves offense seems to be waking up after a terrible start. I like the value on the over in this game.
04-11-12 St.Louis Cardinals v. Cincinnati Reds UNDER 7.5 3-4 Win 100 11 h 8 m Show
*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Bill Miller is one of my favorite 'under' umpires in all of baseball. Miller has a huge strike zone and the under has cashed in bigtime over the last few years in his games behind home plate. We have two very good pitchers who pitch best in the first half of the year in this game. The cool weather in Cincinnati will help the ball stay in the ballpark more than normal. This is a get away day for both teams, and we'll likely see some regulars sit in this game. Lance Berkman and Brandon Phillips are likely to miss the game due to injury. Take the under.
04-10-12 Sacramento Kings v. Dallas Mavericks OVER 201.5 Top 100-110 Win 100 8 h 4 m Show
*5 Star NBA Top Total* The Sacramento Kings have had two straight games where they didn't reach 100 points. That hasn't happened in a long time and head coach Keith Smart was open about the fact that he wasn't happy at the fact that this team hasn't pushed the tempo enough the last couple games. Look for Sacramento to be pushing the pace in a big way in this game. Dallas has scored over 100 points in 5 of their last 7 meetings with Sacramento (97 and 99 in the other two). The three referees in this game have a combined record of 76-46 to the over. That is extremely rare in a season where the 'under' has cashed in 52% of the time overall. The pace should be there in this one. The over is 6-0 in the Kings last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Dallas' last 4 games against a team with a winning percentage below 40%. This 10-0 angle should hold up tonight. Take the over big!
04-10-12 Seattle: B Beavan v. Texas: N Feliz OVER 9.5 0-1 Loss -100 19 h 60 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* Dana DeMuth was behind the plate 34 times last year. The over was 26-8 in those 34 games. He has a tight strike zone, and he'll make it difficult on young Blake Beavan and Neftali Feliz. Feliz is making his first start here, and I suspect he'll be a bit out of rhythm. Beavan hasn't pitched in Texas, and I don't think he'll like this hitters ballpark. The over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these teams at Texas. Texas is capable of getting to this number by themselves, and I think Seattle will score some off Feliz. Take the over.
04-10-12 Boston: D Bard v. Toronto: K Drabek OVER 9.5 3-7 Win 100 19 h 23 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Daniel Bard is making his first career start in this one. Bard has very good stuff, but he sometimes has issues with his control. Toronto is a very good hitting team. Bard is 1-10 in his career on the road, and his ERA is 5.40 at Toronto. Kyle Drabek has a horrible 12.00 ERA in two starts against the Red Sox. It doesn't hurt at all that we have Tim McClelland as the home plate umpire here. He is one of the best 'over' umpires in the business, because of the extremely low percentage of strikes he calls. The over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Toronto. Take the over.
04-09-12 Oklahoma City Thunder v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 210 109-89 Loss -110 7 h 37 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* My single favorite team to bet the 'over' with this year has been the Milwaukee Bucks. The over is 19-7 in their home games this year. Oklahoma City hasn't played very well of late, but I expect them to turn it back around. Milwaukee pushes the tempo better than anyone else in the league right now. Oklahoma City's offense should get plenty of open looks, but the Bucks will get their points too. Both teams are capable of putting up 110 or 115 points here. The over is 10-2 in the Bucks last 12 as a home underdog. The over is 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings. Take the over.
04-09-12 St Louis: Westbrook v. Cincinnati: H Bailey OVER 9 7-1 Loss -110 16 h 6 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* In his career, Homer Bailey has seen a lot of the St. Louis Cardinals. Bailey has started nine games at St. Louis, but his ERA is 5.64. Jake Westbrook is on the mound for the Cardinals, and his worst month of the year historically has been April. The wind is expected to be howling out toward center in this one. Great American Ballpark is a major hitters park to start with, and with the aid of the wind the ball should be flying out a lot Monday night. The over is 19-7 in Bailey's last 26 starts. The over is 4-0 in Westbrook's last 4 starts. Take the over.
04-08-12 San Francisco: M Cain v. Arizona: Collmenter OVER 8 6-7 Win 100 15 h 34 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a hitter's paradise with the roof open. Aaron Hill bashed two home runs yesterday as I cashed on the over in that game on my 5 Star Top Play. Matt Cain is very solid, but he does give up the long ball a decent amount. Josh Collmenter has had some success in the majors, but I think hitters will catch on against his strange delivery this year. The over is 5-0-1 in Arizona's last 6 home games. The over is 13-4 in San Francisco's last 17 road games. I think this one gets over the posted total.
04-08-12 Boston: C Buchholz v. Detroit: M Scherzer OVER 8.5 12-13 Win 100 12 h 32 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Boston Red Sox and the Detroit Tigers have two of the best offenses in the American League. These teams can pile up the runs in bunches. Max Scherzer has been terrible against the Red Sox in the past. He has an ERA over 9 against them in his career. Clay Buchholz is a good pitcher, but he is coming off injuries and I don't think he'll dominate this terrific Tigers lineup. The wind is expected to be blowing out at 22 mph in this game. Both teams have plenty of big boppers to knock it out. Take the over.
04-07-12 Denver Nuggets v. Golden State Warriors OVER 208.5 97-112 Win 100 20 h 30 m Show
*3 Star NBA Late Night Bailout* Golden State started the season out trying to slow the tempo down, but with all their injuries they have gone back to a team that tries to push the pace and score before the defense gets set. Denver plays at a very quick pace thanks to their athleticism and Ty Lawson at the point guard spot. The over is 8-2 in Golden State's last 10 games. The over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these teams. I projected this one at 212 points. Look for this one to go over the posted total.
04-07-12 Minnesota Timberwolves v. New Orleans Hornets UNDER 191 90-99 Win 100 18 h 5 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* New Orleans was absolutely blasted last night in San Antonio, and that is a good thing for the 'under' in this one. This team plays at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA, and they should get back to what they like to do in this one. Minnesota is short-handed now, and they haven't been quite as powerful offensively. The first two meetings between these teams have finished far under the posted total. The under is 4-0 in the Hornets last 4 following a loss. The under is 5-0 in Minnesota's last 5 against a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in New Orleans. A perfect 14-0 angle backs this one. I like the under.
04-07-12 New York (A): H Kuroda v. Tampa Bay: D Price OVER 7.5 6-8 Win 103 17 h 27 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Value* The New York Yankees have an amazing lineup, and anytime I see a total this low in one of their games I have to take a second look. David Price is a very good pitcher, but the 'over' is 7-3 in his last 10 starts against New York. Kuroda will be making his first start in a Yankees uniform here. He is a good pitcher, but I don't find him to be dominating. Sam Holbrook is one of the biggest over umpires in baseball, and he'll pinch the strike zone a lot here. Take the over in this one.
04-07-12 Boston Celtics v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 187 86-72 Win 100 6 h 45 m Show
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Boston Celtics were ripped in a big way by their coach Doc Rivers after the game Thursday night. Boston dominated early against the Bulls, but they fell apart late because of poor defense. The Celtics have the best field goal percentage defense in the NBA, and I think they'll show up ready to play tonight. All three games between these two teams have finished well under this posted total so far this year. Indiana has been scoring a lot of late, but they haven't played any defenses nearly as good as Boston. Take the under.
04-07-12 San Francisco: Bumgarner v. Arizona: D Hudson OVER 8 Top 4-5 Win 100 14 h 12 m Show
*5 Star MLB Top Total* Chase Field is a whole different stadium when the roof is open. The dry heat allows the ball to travel in a big way. Three home runs were hit yesterday and that was in a much lower temperature than is expected for this game. Daniel Hudson is a very good pitcher, but he struggled early in the year when the roof was open last season. Jim Reynolds is one of the best over umpires in the game. The over is 119-92 in the last six years when he is behind the dish. Even better, Madison Bumgarner struggles on the road. The over is a perfect 7-0 in his last 7 road starts. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams. Take the over big here.
04-06-12 Charlotte Bobcats v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 201 90-95 Loss -110 30 h 50 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Charlotte Bobcats are easily the worst team in the NBA right now. Charlotte plays to the pace of their opponent because they really don't have any particular style. Milwaukee is running and gunning with the best of them right now. Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis can score in bunches from the backcourt. Milwaukee could easily put up 115 or 120 points against this dreadful Bobcats defense. The over is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 as a favorite of 11 points or more. The over is 6-0 in the Bucks last 6 against the NBA Southeast Division. The over is 3-0-1 in the Bobcats last 4 against the Central Division. This 15-0 winning angle is a strong one. Take the over here.
04-06-12 Cleveland Cavaliers v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 189.5 84-80 Win 100 18 h 25 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Value* Kyrie Irving will miss this game. Without Kyrie Irving the Cleveland Cavaliers are a real mess. They only managed 75 points at New York when Irving missed that game. Toronto has been playing solid defense of late, and the Raptors should slow down the Cavs here. Toronto isn't the type of team that pushes the tempo, so I don't expect the pace to be very quick here. The Cavs are averaging just 84 points per game in their last five, and without Irving that could get even worse. The under is 16-4-1 in the last 21 meetings. Take the under.
04-06-12 Oklahoma City Thunder v. Indiana Pacers OVER 200 98-103 Win 100 28 h 20 m Show
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Oklahoma City Thunder are in a very odd position here. The Thunder have lost two games in a row coming into this one. They are just one game ahead of the Spurs in the Western Conference standings. Indiana's offense has been in a great rhythm of late and I think the Pacers can score quite a few in this one. At the same time, I expect OKC to be much better offensively in this one. Durant, Westbrook, and Harden are tough matchups for the Pacers. Look for a high scoring game here. Take the over.
04-06-12 St Louis: J Garcia v. Milwaukee: Y Gallardo OVER 7 11-5 Win 100 15 h 4 m Show
*3 Star MLB Total Domination* This total is set extremely low, and I don't think it should be. Both starting pitchers have struggled in this situation. Garcia is a good pitcher, but he has an ERA above 6 at Miller Park. Gallardo has an ERA of 5.66 in 11 starts against the Cardinals. Both of these teams are much better than the average offense in the majors. The over is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings between these two in Milwaukee. I think this one has a good chance of getting to 9 or 10 runs. This one is likely an overreaction to so many games going 'under' yesterday. Take the value on the over.
04-06-12 Minnesota: C Pavano v. Baltimore: J Arrieta OVER 9 2-4 Loss -102 1 h 20 m Show
*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* I was waiting on this play to confirm the umpire and lineups. Now that both look solid, I am going to play the over here. Both pitching staffs are very poor. Carl Pavano and Jake Arrieta should not be an ace in any situation, but they are for these teams. Both of these offenses should be better than last year. The bullpens are both terrible in this one, and I expect them to get roughed up here. The over is 11-5-3 in Arrieta's last 19 home starts. The over is 5-2 in Pavano's last 7 road starts. Take the over.
04-05-12 Los Angeles Clippers v. Sacramento Kings OVER 206 93-85 Loss -105 10 h 50 m Show
*3 Star NBA Late Night Total BAILOUT* The Sacramento Kings play at an extremely quick pace right now. They are a great 'over' team because they fly up and down the floor and play almost no defense. In the Kings last 13 games, only one of them has finished below this posted total of 206 points. In fact, that game finished at 205 points. The Clippers offense has found its stride again of late, as evidenced by their 108 points last night against the Lakers. The Clippers should pile up the points against this poor defense, and the Kings should score plenty as well. Take the over.
04-05-12 Washington Wizards v. Detroit Pistons UNDER 191 94-99 Loss -110 7 h 21 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Knockout* The Washington Wizards are a completely different team than they were earlier this year. Washington plays better defense without Nick Young and Javale McGee, and they don't push the tempo as much. John Wall is struggling right now. Detroit is playing better basketball right now as well. The Pistons are giving up just 87.4 points per game in their last five contests. The under is 7-0 in the Wizards last 7 road games. The under is 5-0 in the Pistons last 5 playing on 1 day of rest. Take the under here.
04-04-12 Indiana Pacers v. Washington Wizards UNDER 194 109-96 Loss -107 7 h 60 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Washington Wizards are a completely different team than they were at the beginning of the year. Without Nick Young and Javale McGee they play more defense and don't play quite as quickly. The under is 11-1 in their last 12 games overall. Indiana is coming off a nice win at home against the Knicks last night. The Pacers and Wizards have played twice in the last couple weeks. The final total in those games was 168 and 182 points. The shooting numbers weren't great in those games, but the pace stayed slow. I see no reason to expect a fast pace here. Take the under.
04-03-12 Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 198.5 94-98 Win 100 18 h 25 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Golden State Warriors haven't been nearly as good on offense away from home. Golden State averages 96.9 points per game on the road. Memphis gives up just 92.9 points per game at home. The Grizzlies are coming off a massive win at Oklahoma City last night, and I think they'll be a little less pumped up in this one. Look for the Grizzlies to slow the game down, especially if point guard Mike Conley misses another game. The under is 9-3 in Golden State's last 12 road games. The under is 5-1 in the Grizzlies last 6 games. I like the value on the under in this one.
04-02-12 Memphis Grizzlies v. Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 198 94-88 Win 100 20 h 31 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder have met three times already this year. The final score has ended at 193, 195, and 195 points. The posted total on those games was 192, 193, and 193.5. We got a total about five points higher here. Memphis knows they can't just run and gun with Oklahoma City, so I expect them to slow this game down. This is a case where I believe the odds got a little out of control. Since the total here is set so much higher, I think the under is the play. Take the under.
04-02-12 Milwaukee Bucks v. Washington Wizards OVER 203.5 112-98 Win 100 5 h 26 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Value* Milwaukee is one of my favorite 'over' teams. The Bucks can really push the tempo. Brandon Jennings now has Monta Ellis to help him push the pace in the backcourt. Washington has seen 11 straight games go under the posted total. The Wizards have played against a lot of teams that slow the tempo down, but that won't be the case tonight. The over is 22-8 in the Bucks last 30 games. The last time these two teams played the score was 119-118. The total is posted significantly lower here because the Wizards are on an 'under' streak. Look for this one to go well over the posted total. Take the over.
04-01-12 Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 189.5 92-99 Loss -110 16 h 13 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Washington Wizards have changed more than any other team in the NBA since the trade deadline. They still aren't a very good team, but they do at least try on the defensive end now. Washington isn't in quite as much of a hurry on the offensive end either. The under is a perfect 10-0 in Washington's last 10 games overall. Toronto isn't a high-powered offensive team, and I think this game will be a sloppy one. Look for poor shooting and a slow tempo to keep this one under the posted total.
04-01-12 Denver Nuggets v. Orlando Magic OVER 201.5 104-101 Win 100 16 h 46 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The Denver Nuggets are the worst team in the league at guarding beyond the three-point line. Orlando relies heavily on three-point shooting from guys like Anderson, Redick, Richardson, and Nelson. Look for the Magic to knock down a ton of three-point shots in this game. Denver pushes the pace more than any team in the NBA, and the Nuggets should be able to pile up the points against a mediocre Orlando defense. The over is 4-1 in Orlando's last 5. The over is 5-2 in Denver's last 7. Take the over.
03-31-12 New Jersey Nets v. Sacramento Kings OVER 209.5 111-99 Win 100 20 h 28 m Show
*3 Star NBA Late Night Bailout Total* The New Jersey Nets are a strange team in that they are quite a bit better on the road than they are at home. The Nets are 11-16 on the road and only 7-19 at home. Sacramento is playing at a breakneck pace right now. The Kings are putting up 90 shots or more almost every game. The Nets are poor defensively, and I think they'll keep the tempo quick as well with Deron Williams at the point. Four of the Kings last five home games have finished with at least 214 total points. Take the over here.
03-31-12 Ohio State v. Kansas OVER 136 Top 62-64 Loss -110 144 h 50 m Show
*5 Star Final Four Top Total* Ohio State and Kansas will square off in the second Final Four matchup Saturday night. This should be a great game because of the intriguing matchups on the court. Thomas Robinson against Jared Sullinger and Aaron Craft against Tyshawn Taylor are two to watch. Aaron Craft is the best on the ball defender in the nation and he has 13 steals already in the NCAA Tournament. Tyshawn Taylor has 124 turnovers this year and he is careless with the ball. Look for Craft to force Taylor into quite a few turnovers in this one. Ohio State has picked up the tempo a lot over the last few games, and they are playing their best basketball of the year. The over is 10-1 in Ohio State's last 11 games. Look for Ohio State to use their athleticism in the open floor so Kansas can't set up their great half court defense. Both teams have plenty of guys who can score. In addition, this game should be close all the way, and I fully expect a lot of free throws in this game. Take the over big here.
03-30-12 Boston Celtics v. Minnesota Timberwolves UNDER 191 Top 100-79 Win 100 6 h 6 m Show
*5 Star TGIF Top Total* Minnesota isn't able to push the tempo the same way right now, because they have so many injuries. In addition to Rubio being out for the year, they will be without Barea, Beasley, and Pekovic in this game. Boston is one of the best defensive teams in the league, and the Celtics are great at controlling the tempo. The referee crew here makes this a stronger play for me. Lead offical Brent Barnaky is 26-6 to the 'under' this year. The other two officials are a combined 46-28 to the under. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Minnesota. Take the under big.
03-30-12 Milwaukee Bucks v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 203 121-84 Win 100 29 h 17 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Milwaukee Bucks are definitely one of my favorite teams to bet the 'over' with right now. Since adding Monta Ellis this team runs and guns more than ever. Plenty of guys on this team are capable of scoring a lot of points in a small amount of time. Cleveland likes to push the tempo as well, but their offense has struggled of late. I think the Cavs offense will benefit from the quick pace of the Bucks, and Milwaukee isn't very good defensively. The over is 26-9 in the Bucks last 35. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 Friday games. Take the over.
03-30-12 New York Knicks v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 188.5 90-100 Loss -110 29 h 10 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The New York Knicks are a completely different team under Mike Woodson. Woodson likes the team to run offensive sets in the half court and the team focuses much more on defense. They aren't into simply outscoring teams the way they used to be. Atlanta is one of the better defensive teams in the league and they slow the pace down as well. The first meeting between these two finished at 99-82. The under is 6-1 in the Knicks last 7. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Take the under here.
03-30-12 Philadelphia 76ers v. Washington Wizards UNDER 187 76-97 Win 100 6 h 40 m Show
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Philadelphia 76ers are a nice under team because of the way they control the tempo and play solid defense. Washington was one of the fastest paced teams in the league earlier this year, but since the trade deadline they have slowed down in a big way. This has given the under some big value of late. The under is 9-0 in Washington's last 9 games. The under is 7-3 in the Sixers last 10 road games. I projected this one at 183 or 184 points. Look for a half court game that stays under the posted total. Take the under.
03-29-12 Dallas Mavericks v. Miami Heat UNDER 189 85-106 Loss -107 6 h 47 m Show
*3 Star NBA Finals Rematch Total* Dallas and Miami met on Christmas Day in the NBA Season Opener and Miami won easily. The Heat have played well overall this year, but their offense has been surprisingly poor of late. Only once in the last ten games have they topped 100 points. That includes two overtime games where the Heat had 94 and 87 points at the end of regulation. The first game of the season had a total half a point lower than this, which seems odd since Miami is struggling badly on offense now. Dallas has been picking up the defense of late. The under is 14-3 in the Heat's last 17 home games. Look for both defenses to play well. Take the under.
03-29-12 Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers UNDER 194.5 89-93 Win 100 17 h 2 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Washington Wizards have been a completely different team of late. Since the trade deadline the team has slowed down their pace quite a bit. No longer do they have Nick Young, JaVale McGee, and Andray Blatche jacking up shots. The under is 8-0 in the last 8 games for Washington. The under is 4-0 in the Pacers last 4 Thursday games. These two teams played to a 85-83 final last week. Both of these teams have been playing better defense of late. I projected this line at 191. Take the under.
03-28-12 Orlando Magic v. New York Knicks UNDER 189 86-108 Loss -110 6 h 49 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Value* The New York Knicks have been playing much better defense under Mike Woodson. In addition, they have slowed down the game quite a bit. This is now a half court team that runs sets to get the ball to a certain spot on the floor. Orlando is one of the slower teams in the league as far as tempo. The last meeting between these two went over this total, but that was before the Knicks slowed down the pace. In addition, Orlando made 17 3 pointer's in that game. The under is 6-0 in the Knicks last 6 games. Take the under.
03-28-12 Denver Nuggets v. Toronto Raptors OVER 202 96-105 Loss -105 6 h 49 m Show
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Raptors are a classic team that plays to the pace of their opponent. Toronto doesn't control the tempo at all, but Denver definitely can. The Nuggets play at the fastest pace of any team in the NBA. Denver has scored at least 100 points in four straight games, and the Toronto defense isn't good at all. DeMar Derozan should be back for Toronto in this one, which is good for the over as well. I projected this game at 205 points. The over is 5-0 in the Nuggets last 5 games overall. Take the over.
03-27-12 Los Angeles Lakers v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 198 104-101 Loss -110 10 h 12 m Show
*3 Star NBA Late Night Bailout Total* Golden State is short-handed right now, and they shouldn't be able to pile up too many points against a defensive-minded team like the Lakers. Los Angeles is one of the slower teams in the NBA in terms of pace. Earlier this year the teams met and the final was 187, and that was with Golden State at full strength. It doesn't hurt that we got a nice officiating crew in this one. Mike Callahan is here and the 'under' is 25-9 in his 34 games this season. Take the under in this one.
03-27-12 Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trailblazers OVER 198.5 109-95 Win 100 20 h 48 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Portland Trail Blazers seem to have picked up the pace a bit under Coach Kanales. Portland doesn't play much defense, and the Thunder should be able to take advantage of that. The first two meetings this year both easily went over the posted total. I expected this line to be 201 or so. The Thunder shoot 80% from the free throw line as a team, and in a game that could be close to the end that could be a major plus in this matchup. In 8 of their last 9 games the Thunder have scored at least 103 points. Take the over here.
03-27-12 Houston Rockets v. Dallas Mavericks UNDER 193.5 81-90 Win 100 8 h 26 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Value* I leaned to the 'under' in this one before seeing the referee's and that pushed me to make this a play. The refs in this game have a combined record to the under of a stunning 70-35. Lead official Brent Barnaky is 24-6 to the under. Expect less fouls called than a normal game here. Both teams have played some overs lately, which is giving us a bit of an inflated line. Kevin Martin and Kyle Lowry are two of the Rockets best scorers, but they are out for this one. I projected this one at 190. Take the under.
03-27-12 Minnesota Timberwolves v. Memphis Grizzlies OVER 201 86-93 Loss -105 8 h 56 m Show
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* Since Ricky Rubio left the lineup with a season-ending injury, the Timberwolves have gotten much worse, but they are also having higher scoring games. The team plays very little defense and they don't use the shot clock much at all. Six of their last eight games have finished with a total of at least 214 points. The Grizzlies are healthy now and they can put up the points against teams that don't play defense. Look for Memphis to get Randolph going some in this game. The over is 15-5 in the TWolves last 20 road games. Take the over.
03-26-12 Denver Nuggets v. Chicago Bulls OVER 199 108-91 Push 0 4 h 37 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Value* No one in the NBA plays at a tempo as quick as the Denver Nuggets. The Bulls have had some high scoring games this year with Derrick Rose out of the lineup. Chicago should get plenty of second chance opportunities because of their advantage down low in this one. At the same time, Ty Lawson will have the quickness advantage without Rose in the lineup for the Bulls. The over is 13-5 in the Nuggets last 18 games. I projected this one at 202 points. Look for a quick tempo here. Take the over in this one.
03-26-12 Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Bobcats UNDER 184 102-95 Loss -110 17 h 53 m Show
*3 Star NBA Top Total* The Boston Celtics will be without Ray Allen on Monday night. Boston is playing in a dreaded back-to-back situation, and this Celtics team just finished an eight game road stand. They played one home and now head back on the road for this one right away. Charlotte has been competing harder of late. The Bobcats should have more energy than the Celtics in this game. The under is 4-1 in the Celtics last 5 games. I projected this line at 181 points. Look for a slow paced game where both teams struggle from the floor. Take the under.
03-26-12 Orlando Magic v. Toronto Raptors UNDER 182.5 117-101 Loss -109 3 h 21 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* Orlando has slowed the pace down quite a bit of late. They are now one of the slowest paced teams in teams of possessions per game in the entire NBA. Toronto will be without DeMar Derozan in this one and he averages 16.5 points per game. The Raptors are a poor team offensively to start with, and without Derozan breaking down the defense it could be a long night for their offense. The under is a perfect 9-0 in the Raptors last 9 Monday games at home. The under is 4-0 in the Magic's last 4 against the Eastern Conference. I'll back this 13-0 winning angle here. Take the under.
03-25-12 Oakland v. Utah State UNDER 153 Top 81-105 Loss -108 64 h 47 m Show
*5 Star NCAA Hidden Gem Total* The smaller postseason tournaments like this one tend to have very high scoring games early on, but as they go farther along the games slow down a bit. Oakland is the type of team that loves to run and gun no matter what, but I don't think Utah State will play that game with them here. Utah State is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation, and they are great at melting down clock when they have a lead. They have a great homecourt advantage and I expect them to win this game, so I think they'll take the air out of the ball late. I projected this one at 148 or 149. Take the under.
03-25-12 Kansas v. North Carolina UNDER 143.5 80-67 Loss -108 15 h 38 m Show
*3 Star Kansas/UNC Total Domination* I wouldn't think that Kendall Marshall could go in this one, and even if he does it's hard to imagine him being terribly effective. Stilman White isn't a bad player, but the tempo is much slower when he is in the game. Kansas has the single best two-point defense in the nation, which is huge because North Carolina relies heavily on shooting it from inside. The Tar Heels really aren't that great from beyond the arc. Kansas has been struggling shooting the ball, but Bill Self's team plays very good defense. The under is 17-4 in Kansas' last 21 NCAA Tournament games. The under is 4-0 in the Jayhawks last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-1 in UNC's last 5 NCAA Tournament games. Take the under.
03-25-12 Baylor v. Kentucky OVER 147.5 70-82 Win 100 25 h 59 m Show
*3 Star Baylor/Kentucky Total* The Baylor Bears have picked up the pace quite a bit in their past couple tournament games. Pierre Jackson is very quick and he looks to push and get it to the athletic frontcourt players as soon as possible. Kentucky has put on two offensive clinic's in a row against Iowa State and then Indiana. Marquis Teague has gained tons of confidence of late and that makes a world of difference for the Wildcats on offense. Don't expect either team to slow this tempo down. The over is 4-1 in the Wildcats last 5. The over is 6-1 in Baylor's last 7. Take the over.
03-24-12 Sacramento Kings v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 208.5 108-111 Loss -110 20 h 17 m Show
*3 Star NBA Late Night Bailout* The Golden State Warriors simply don't have the horses to be pushing the pace right now. They no longer have Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry is out with an ankle injury. The Kings like to run and gun, but their offense isn't nearly as good on the road. Sacramento averages just 93.7 points per game on the road. This won't be a popular play with the public, but I don't mind fading the public in this spot. Look for both offenses to struggle more than expected here. This is a very high number. Take the under.
03-24-12 Indiana Pacers v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 202.5 125-104 Win 100 18 h 13 m Show
*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* Both teams are on the final leg of a back-to-back-to-back scheduling spot. It's controversial what that means to the total, but I think in this case it will likely mean tired legs that don't play very much defense. The Bucks are pushing the pace in a big way since the trade deadline. Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings is a terrific backcourt to push the tempo with. The over is 24-8 in the Bucks last 32 games. It is 15-5-1 in their 21 home games this year. Take the over here.
03-24-12 Ohio State v. Syracuse OVER 134.5 77-70 Win 100 18 h 40 m Show
*3 Star OSU/Syracuse Total Takedown* Ohio State turned on the jets in the second half against Cincinnati after squandering a lead earlier in the game. Aaron Craft is the best on the ball defender in the nation, and you can bet he'll make life difficult for Jardine and Waiters. Syracuse has forced quite a few turnovers this year, and I think they'll get some run out opportunities here. The Buckeyes have been pushing the pace much more of late. The over is 9-1 in Ohio State's last 10 (the one loss was by a single point). Take the over in this one.
03-24-12 Atlanta Hawks v. Washington Wizards UNDER 191.5 95-92 Win 100 18 h 49 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Washington Wizards aren't the same team since the trade deadline, but that has actually been a good thing. They got rid of Nick Young and JaVale McGee, and it seems like the team is playing much better defense. They aren't pushing the tempo as much, and the Hawks would definitely prefer a half court game. The under is an impressive 5-0 in the Wizards last 5. The under is 5-0 in the Hawks last 5 games when playing on 0 days rest. The under is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The combined 14-0 under angle should carry on. Take the under.
03-24-12 Florida v. Louisville UNDER 131.5 68-72 Loss -108 14 h 27 m Show
*3 Star FLA/LOUIS Total Takedown* Rick Pitino and Billy Donovan should be a tremendous chess match in this one. Pitino's Cardinals showed just how tremendous their defense is last game against the Spartans of Michigan State. Michigan State, the top seed in the West, scored just 44 points against Louisville. Louisville should actually use the full court pressure to slow down Florida's guards and keep them out of the lane in this one. The Gators have slowed the tempo down a lot in the tournament thus far. The under is 10-1 in Lousville's last 11. The under is 3-0 in Florida's last 3. Take the under.
03-24-12 Memphis Grizzlies v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 189.5 85-101 Win 100 13 h 54 m Show
*3 Star NBA Early Bird Special* This game tips off at noon PST. The Clippers have been extremely lethargic of late, and I think this is another spot where they won't have much gas at all. The team has had a very rough schedule of late, and the offense just isn't clicking at all. Memphis is having some chemistry issues as well since Zach Randolph came back into the lineup. An early tip time like this makes me lean to the under to start with. The under is 6-0 in the Clippers last 6 home games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Take the under.
03-23-12 Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 195.5 96-103 Loss -108 20 h 17 m Show
*3 Star NBA Total Domination* The Portland Trail Blazers showed some fight last night by picking up a home win over the Memphis Grizzlies. Los Angeles picked up a massive win over Dallas on Wednesday night. The over is 8-1 in the Lakers last nine, but in this case I think that is just giving us a nice value. The Blazers appear to be playing a little slower tempo under Canales as their new coach. The Lakers are still one of the slowest paced teams in the league, and as long as shooting percentages aren't astronomical here I think the under is the way to go. Take the under.
03-23-12 Indiana v. Kentucky UNDER 145.5 90-102 Loss -110 46 h 39 m Show
*3 Star Indiana/Kentucky Total Domination* Indiana bested Kentucky 73-72 earlier this year. Kentucky went on to have a dominating season and become the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Coach Calipari and this Kentucky team certainly haven't forgotten that December loss at the hands of the Hoosiers. Kentucky's major strength is their defense. Opponents shoot just 37% from the floor and only 39% on two-point shots. Anthony Davis is the best shot blocker college basketball has seen in many years. The first game between these two finished at 145. Indiana made 6 out of 9 three-point shots in that one. Kentucky shot 56% from the floor in that game. At a neutral site and with much more on the line, I find it hard to believe the shooting percentages will be that high again. The under is 10-3-1 in Kentucky's last 14 neutral site games. The under is 6-1 in Indiana's last 7 neutral site games. Take the under here.
03-23-12 Xavier v. Baylor UNDER 142.5 70-75 Loss -113 18 h 36 m Show
*3 Star NCAA BB Totals TKO* This game will be played in the Georgia Dome. A massive dome like this is generally not conducive to shooters. Brady Heslip single-handedly killed my Colorado/Baylor under last week. I have a feeling Xavier's Mark Lyons will be in his face all night in this one. Both teams are very good on defense, and the pace of these games tends to slow down a bit as they get more and more important. I projected this line at 138 or 139 points. Look for Baylor's athletic frontcourt to keep Xavier out of the paint in this one. Take the under.
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