*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Southern Eagles have a terrible defense. They allowed 59 points to USC (12.0 yards per play) and 42 points against Fresno State (527 total yards). 

Jacksonville State has gotten really good production out of the running game with Cam Cook. The biggest weakness of this Georgia Southern defense is their interior defensive line. They will be gashed by many good rushing attacks this year. I think the Gamecocks will run for a big number here.

Georgia Southern has played two good secondaries so far, but Jacksonville State is very weak in pass coverage. Georgia Southern wants to play fast and throw it around. Here is the type of defense they want to go up against. I think the Eagles pass happy attack will look far better in this game than it did in the first two contests.

A quick pace and the offenses with the advantages.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida Atlantic Owls are playing at the fastest pace of any team in the country. Florida Atlantic turned the ball constantly in Maryland territory in their first game. They did move the ball. Last week against Florida A&M, the Owls rolled up 553 yards and 360 passing yards. 

FIU only had 4.0 yards per play last week, but that was against an excellent Penn State defense that will shut down a lot of offenses this season. Florida Atlantic is one of the worst defenses in the country, and I think FIU will find moving the football far easier here.

The pace here should be quick and I don't think the FIU secondary will be good enough to slow Veltkamp and the offense all game. On the other side, FIU should break some explosive runs on the Owls weak front seven. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs play at a top 25 tempo in the country. The Missouri State defense is likely to be a bottom 10 or 15 defense in the country this season. The Bears are undersized on the defensive front, and SMU is likely to have their way on offense. Kevin Jennings is expected to play here and the SMU backup quarterbacks are solid if Jennings is pulled early. Missouri State allowed 73 points against USC in week one. 

Missouri State isn't bad offensively though. The Bears have a very good quarterback in Jacob Clark. Clark can throw it around, and SMU's secondary is a relative weakness right now.

The temperature is expected to be 91 degrees in this one. In college football- hot weather overs have been very profitable in the long run. The defenses tend to wear down and the tackling gets worse later in the game.

The pace should be quick here, and I like SMU to put up a big number. I think Missouri State scores enough with Clark doing some work here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls have played two terrible defenses in UMass and Howard. Temple has moved the ball well in those games, but I really doubt they'll have much success moving the ball in this one.

Oklahoma's defensive front is elite. The Sooners won't be run on by many teams this year. Oklahoma can be thrown on at times, but this Temple offense is heavily run based. Temple is 124th out of 136 in the country in terms of tempo. The Owls want to slow the game down as much as possible. Coach Keeler's teams have done that in the past, especially when they are clearly at a talent disadvantage. 

Oklahoma is in a letdown spot here after a big win over Michigan. The number here has moved heavily toward Temple. Oklahoma could definitely let off the gas here offensively. The Sooners wouldn't really benefit from running up the score. They are more likely to want to get ready for Auburn next week.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Angels and Marinrs just played a 12 inning game and ruined their bullpens on Thursday night. Both of the starting pitchers in this game have been struggling, and they could struggle to pitch deep into the game.

The Angels are averaging 5.5 runs per game in their last six games. The Mariners are averaging 8 runs per game in their last six games.

Kikuchi starts for the Angels, and he has been crushed of late. In fact, he has a 9.13 ERA in his last five starts. He ranks in the bottom 7% of all pitchers in the majors in average exit velocity for season. Seattle has several guys who have hit him very well. That includes Suarez who has 3 HR's in 12 at bats against Kikuchi.

Luis Castillo has a 7.83 ERA and a 6.06 FIP in his last five starts. Castillo has allowed 7 home runs in his last five starts. 

The bullpens are 17th and 22nd in bullpen ERA in the last 30 days. Both have used their best arms heavily in recent games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Guardians start Gavin Williams here. Williams is a good young pitcher who has been pitching his best late in the season.

The Kansas City Royals are 25th in wOBA for the season. Bobby Witt Jr. is trying to play through and injury and he hasn't been himself of late.

Cleveland is last in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Guardians have struggled offensively at home all year long. 

Both defenses have been very good at saving runs and that could be key here.

The weather is calling for temperatures in the upper 60's with a light wind blowing in from center field.

Phil Cuzzi is a very good under umpire. The under is 67-44 in Cuzzi's games behind home plate since 2022. He is a strike caller and a very pitcher friendly umpire. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Eury Perez is in really poor form of late. Perez has a 8.53 ERA and a 7.41 FIP in his last six starts. He has been giving up a lot of very hard hit baseballs in recent starts. The Nationals just torched him for 7 runs in 4 IP in his last start.

Washington has scored 45 runs in their last six games. The Nationals offense has absolutely caught fire. James Wood continues to hit the ball well, and Josh Bell has had an amazing resurgence in the last couple weeks. 

Jake Irvin is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Irvin has an 8.86 ERA and a 7.08 FIP in his last 9 innings pitched. Irvin has been consistently terrible, and he has been even worse away from home.

Both of these pitchers have the potential to give up big innings at any time right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Mike Tomlin's teams have struggled offensively on the road in the last decade, but they have been tremendous on defense. When Tomlin and the Steelers are on the road in the first ten games of the season- the under is a whopping 40-11 in the last 51 contests. 

The Steelers offense has all sorts of question marks. Will Rodgers be a good fit? He's clearly far past his prime and his level of play last season wasn't very high. The Jets defense is a good one too, and they should make life difficult on him.

Justin Fields hasn't proven himself as a quarterback in the NFL. The Jets lost their best offensive lineman Vera-Tucker to an injury this week. Their lack of depth on the offensive line makes that a big problem. The Steelers defensive front is one of the best in the NFL.

It's a low total, but I don't think it is quite low enough. A 17-14 type of game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri State Bears are a new FBS team this year. Missouri State's defense is going to be badly overmatched this season. They lost a bunch of talent from a year ago, and now take a big step up in terms of schedule strength they will be playing. Missouri State is going to give up a bunch of points this season. 

Marshall isn't a good offense necessarily, but I expect them to be able to break some big rushing plays against a very weak front seven for Missouri State. USC is certainly talented on offense, but they put up video game numbers. They won 73-13 and put up 10.5 yards per play.

Marshall's defense is way down from what they have been from recent seasons. I do think Missouri State has two good quarterbacks and they'll likely play pretty quickly in terms of tempo. 

I think the oddsmakers are underestimating how much worse the Marshall defense is, and just how bad the Missouri State defense will be on a weekly basis.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats got into a shootout with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Week One. Ohio put up 7.1 yards per play in that one. They allowed 6.8 yards per play in that contest. Navarro had a huge game both through the air and on the ground. 

West Virginia definitely wants to play fast under Rich Rodriguez. The Mountaineers have two really good running backs. Rutgers was able to run the ball very well on Ohio, and I think West Virginia will as well. The Mountaineers just play at a much faster tempo.

The Mountaineers defense lost a lot from a year ago, and I see their secondary as a big weakness. Ohio should be able to hit some big gainers here. West Virginia wasn't tested by a very weak Robert Morris offense, but they'll be tested here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners impressed me with a really good ground game against an excellent Texas A&M defense in week one. UTSA put up 24 points, and they ran for 203 yards. I like their quarterback Owen McCown, and he has good weapons around him.

Texas State got a new quarterback this year, but the Bobcats offense was firing on all cylinders in game one against Eastern Michigan. Texas State scored 52 points and ran for a whopping 392 yards in that game. The Bobcats averaged 9.2 yards per play.

Texas State will be a top ten teams in the country in terms of pace of play. UTSA should be top 30 or 40 in the country in tempo. I expect a bunch of possessions in this game. 

The offenses have plenty of advantages. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers got a fantastic defensive leader in Catalon at safety. Newsom is a really good linebacker as well. I think the Missouri defense will be very solid this season. 

While Pribula looked good against an FCS team, I do think the Missouri offense will struggle to move the ball consistently this year. Missouri lost two star receivers and I would expect them to try to run the football a lot in this game.

Kansas hasn't been tested by a good defense yet. Daniels has proven to be inconsistent, and I think this Missouri secondary could give him trouble. The Jayhawks defense certainly isn't fantastic, but they are clearly improving. They held Fresno State to 3.7 YPP and then Fresno State's offense looked very good against GA Southern.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats defense looked very good against Nebraska. They gave up only 4.5 yards per play against a Nebraska offense that I expect to be good this season.

Cincinnati's offense still has some issues with Sorsby under center. He's a good scrambler and can make some nice plays, but he makes questionable decisions and doesn't have enough accuracy on his passes.

Bowling Green won 26-7 over Lafayette in week one. Only 19 of the points came on offense, since they ran back the opening kick for a TD. The Falcons ran the ball 43 times and threw it just 18 times. I don't trust Drew Pyne and company to move the ball very well here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Ohio Redhawks get involved in a lot of sloppy low scoring games. They are always very solid on defense, but their offense moves slowly and is often overmatched against bigger name schools. 

Miami Ohio lost 17-0 against Wisconsin in week one. They had just 7 first downs and averaged only 2.9 yards per play. The Wisconsin defense is definitely good, but being held to those numbers is a horrible look. DeQuan Finn is a good QB, but he has very little skill position talent around him, and the offensive line is young.

Rutgers got involved in a higher scoring game last week, but that was against an Ohio team that is better offensively and worse defensively than Miami. Rutgers is the third slowest paced team in the country through the first week. They are in no hurry and they will use up the play clock. Miami rates in the bottom 15 in the country in tempo, and that is even with them playing from behind the entire game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green should be much better on defense this year under new DC Skyler Cassity. He did a fantastic job at Sam Houston, and he brought some of his best players over to be the leaders of this North Texas defense. I expect Trey Fields to be a force at linebacker. Yes it was only Lamar (FCS), but North Texas shut them out last week. The Mean Green routinely gave up a lot of points to teams like this in the past. 

Western Michigan's offense couldn't get anything going at all against Michigan State. Their only points in that game came thanks to a Michigan State pick six. They managed to run for only 29 yards on 24 carries. Western Michigan has major question marks at quarterback as well. 

The Western Michigan defense did do a good job limiting Michigan State's offense in that season opener. The Spartans averaged just 4.9 yards per play. 

The forecast here is key as well. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 26 mph at time of kickoff. It would be a cross wind that can be difficult for passing. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Blue Jays and Yankees are both top 3 in the majors in nearly every major offensive category in the last 30 days. These are two excellent offenses.

The wind is blowing out at Yankee Stadium at about 12 mph on a warm day with a high in the mid 80's. The weather conditions are fantastic for an over.

Chris Bassitt is an inconsistent starter, and he has allowed a .376 wOBA against this Yankees lineup in a very large sample size. 

Luis Gil is a middle of the road starter, and the Blue Jays bats are on fire of late. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks are still a pretty good offense. The DBacks top of the order is one of the best in baseball. Tolle is a good young pitcher for the Red Sox, but he has flown up through the minors and he's now up against much better hitters than he has seen anytime. He faced the Pirates in his first start, so this is a much tougher test.

Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled this year. He has very poor numbers against this Red Sox lineup as well. Trevor Story has really seen the ball well off Rodriguez. 

Chase Field is still a top four or five hitters ballpark in all of baseball. A total set this low isn't very common here without high level pitchers going.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Yankees and  Blue Jays are the second and third ranked offenses in baseball in the last 30 days in terms of weighted on base average. 

The Yankees have gotten red hot of late. They have scored 7 runs or more in six of their last eight games. Kevin Gausman is a pretty good pitcher overall, but he has been torched in his last three starts at Yankee Stadium. Gausman has allowed 17 runs in his last 8 and 2/3 innings pitched at Yankee Stadium. He has a tough task here.

Cam Schlittler is a good young pitcher, but he has faced a lot of very weak lineups. His last four starts have been against very weak offenses. He's up against a top five offense in baseball here in the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto has scored 37 runs in their last four games.

The two bullpens here are no better than mediocre. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins have been hitting right handed pitching, and Davis Martin is certainly a below average right handed pitcher. Simeon Woods Richardson is also a below average right handed pitcher.

The key for this game to me though is that both bullpens have been awful in the last month. The Twins traded away their top two bullpen arms, and they are struggling badly. The White Sox have a bottom three bullpen that is worn out right now.

There are showers expected here which could mean the bullpen gets a lot of time, and I'll be on the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Shane Baz has been rocked when pitching at home in Tampa this season. Baz has a 7.06 ERA at home on the season. Baz has an 8.47 ERA in his last seven starts overall. 

Seattle's offense ranks in the top five in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Mariners have plenty of power, and Baz is prone to that big inning.

Luis Castillo has been in very poor form of late too. Castillo has a 6.66 ERA and a 6.70 FIP in his last five starts overall. 

Tampa Bay has hit right handed pitching well all season, and the Rays have continued that trend of late. 

These are two starters who have at times been absolutely smashed. I think this total is set too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Teng has been awful for the Giants. He has an 8.78 ERA and 9 walks in just 13 and 1/3 innings pitched this season. He has given up free baserunners and a lot of hard contact. Those are bad combinations going to Coors Field.

Chase Dollander has been absolutely crushed at Coors Field this season. Dollander has a 9.88 ERA in 41 innings pitched at Coors. Opponents have a whopping .407 weighted on base average against him at Coors. 

The Giants have averaged 9 runs per game in their last five games. Now, they go to take on a very bad starting pitcher at Coors Field.

Colorado is solid offensively at home as well.

Coors Field day games with a total of 12 or lower and a high temperature of 82 degrees or higher have gone over the total at a 56.2% clip in the last 20 seasons. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The wind is blowing in at Fenway Park. The wind matters the most at Wrigley Field in Chicago, but Fenway is where long term stats show the wind matters second most. With the wind blowing in at Fenway and relatively moderate temperatures, it is a clear positive for the pitchers in this one.

Messick has been fantastic in his two starts in the majors. He has just one walk and 12 strikeouts. He is one of the higher prospects in the Guardians organization, and he is showing why right now. 

Boston hasn't been hitting very well of late. Six of their last seven games have stayed under this total. 

Cleveland has seen five of their last seven stay under this total as well. Bello starts for Boston here and he has gotten stronger as the season has gone on.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have a new offensive coordinator in Drew Hollingshead from Western Kentucky. He is an air raid guy who has talked recently about wanting to push the tempo and confuse the defense with a lot of quick unique looks. 

Coastal Carolina has a couple good QB options in Morris and Brown. The Chanticleers absolutely upgraded in the RB room in the offseason. The wide receiver room has depth. 

Virginia's defensive line is decent, but I don't like their LB's or secondary. The Cavaliers are going to get picked on by good teams through the air. 

Offensively, Virginia has Chandler Morris who should fit nicely into the Kitchings system. The Cavs have a much improved RB room with Waylee and Brown. 

Coastal's weakness on defense should be against the pass, and I think Virginia can take advantage of that weakness. 

I expect quite a few possessions in this game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Florida Atlantic Owls are going to look a whole lot different under Zach Kittley. Kittley is fully committed to pushing the tempo to the max, and airing it out consistently. Veltkamp from Western Kentucky comes over to take the QB spot. I see this as a clear upgrade from Fancher who started at QB last season. This team should rank in the top 10 or 15 in the country in terms of pace of play.

The Florida Atlantic defense is in some major trouble! The coaching staff has said they are very concerned about the secondary, and the defensive line had just 17 sacks and allowed 4.9 YPC a year ago. Only one linebacker is back from a year ago as well. The tempo of the offense is going to hurt this defense, especially because they have very little depth. The Owls are going to give up points in loads this season.

Maryland's secondary was a huge weakness a year ago. I see no sign to expect things to improve this year. Florida Atlantic should have success through the air. 

Maryland has enough talent and speed on offense that I expect them to be able to pile up the points against this weak Owls defense. Nolan Ray is a good runner who can hit some explosives. Maryland has two athletic young quarterbacks. Maryland picked up some good WR's in Farooq and Webb. 

The Maryland defense was burned by multiple late transfers out of the linebacker unit. That should hurt them quite a bit this season.

A lot of pace and points is my expectation here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UNLV Rebels allowed 31 points and 555 yards of total offense against the Idaho State Bengals in Week 0. UNLV lost star defenders Woodward, and Catalon from last year. I knew they would be down defensively, but they looked even worse than expected. Idaho State gained 6.4 yards per carry on the ground, which was the most stunning thing from that game.

UNLV will be up against Sam Houston here. Sam Houston gave up 41 points and 506 yards of offense against Western Kentucky in Week 0. The Sam Houston defense is way down without their defensive coordinator and all the key players from last year. The Rebels will have a clear skill advantage, and I think they'll break some big plays here.

Sam Houston's offense looked pretty good against Western Kentucky. The Bearkats actually failed to convert at a high rate in scoring opportunities. They averaged a solid 6.3 yards per play in that game. Hunter Watson played solid football for most of the game, and the running game broke multiple big plays. I think they can get some explosive plays against this UNLV defense as well.

Sam Houston is picking up the pace this year, and this total is pretty low considering how much these two defenses have lost. The offenses should have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals offense that struggled much of the year has come alive in the last couple weeks. They are top five in the majors in almost every offensive category in the last 14 days. Both Pasquantino and Witt Jr. have caught fire, and they are getting good performances from Perez and Garcia too. 

The Detroit Tigers are in the top ten in offensive categories in that same time period. The Tigers have scored six runs or more in 7 of their last 12 games. 

Detroit has an impressive .341 weighted on base average against Seth Lugo. They have hit for power against him in the past. 

Kansas City has a .363 wOBA against Chris Paddack in his career. 

Lugo has an 8.07 ERA and an 8.23 FIP in his last six starts. He has allowed 10 home runs in his last 29 innings pitched. Paddack has an ERA over 5 in his last eight starts too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The NC State Wolfpack just lost to the East Carolina Pirates in a bowl game to finish off last year. The two in-state rivals square off again immediately to start this season. 

I fully expect East Carolina to be a very fast paced offense that airs it out early and often. I like Houser at quarterback, and I think Pettaway from Oklahoma will be a good weapon for him. NC State's clear defensive weakness is their secondary. The Wolfpack just don't have the talent needed at cornerback. 

East Carolina put up 7.0 yards per play against NC State in the bowl game. I think they'll move the ball very well again here.

East Carolina's defense is worse than it was last season. The secondary is their single biggest weakness as well. I like Bailey for NC State, and I think he'll put up some good numbers this year. East Carolina's pass rush is subpar, and the secondary is going to give up some big numbers to quality quarterbacks.

Both of these teams have struggled at preventing explosive plays. I think they'll be some big gainers here both ways. 

The weather looks perfect for this game with a mild temperature and virtually no wind.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both the Mets and Phillies have been in a bunch of high scoring contests in the last couple weeks. In fact, both teams have played 7 of their last 8 games over this posted total. Both lineups have really heated up of late.

Both pitchers in this game have struggled mightily in their previous appearances against the opposition in this contest. Sean Manaea has been especially bad against the Phillies. In a large sample size of 122 plate appearances, he has allowed a .399 weighted on base average against this Phillies lineup. Nick Castellanos has 3 HR's against him in just 19 at bats. Luzardo has allowed a .303 wOBA against the Mets lineup.

Manaea has allowed at least 4 runs in his last four starts. Luzardo is inconsistent and he's facing a Mets lineup that is good against lefties. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals on Sunday afternoon. The weather in this one calls for a temperature in the mid 80's and winds blowing out at 10 mph. It is great weather for the hitters in this one.

Jake Irvin has been getting smashed on a routine basis of late. Irvin has an 8.10 ERA and a 6.52 FIP in his last six starts. Irvin has a 4.15 ERA in the first half of the season in his career. He has an ugly 5.82 ERA in the second half of the season in his career.

Ranger Suarez has been struggling in recent outings, and the Nationals have been hitting the ball pretty well recently. Suarez has a 2.92 ERA in his career in the first half of the season, but it dips down to 3.95 in the second half. 

Suarez has a 2.25 ERA on the road this year and a 4.27 ERA at home. 

Five of the last six Phillies games have topped this total, and the one that stayed under finished at 9 runs.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Maverick McIvor from Abilene Christian is a great pickup for this offense. His offensive coordinator from Abilene comes with him to Western Kentucky, and McIvor threw for more than 3,800 yards last year at Abilene. This should be a pass heavy offense that plays at a quick tempo. 

Sam Houston lost all kinds of talent when KC Keeler left and the vast majority of the players left right with him. Phil Longo's style of play should mean the tempo picks up quite about for Sam Houston. That should be a major concern for this defense, which will be on the field a lot this year. Sam Houston's secondary was their biggest strength last year, but that is the biggest question mark entering this season. Western Kentucky will test that weakness immediately.

Western Kentucky's defensive line isn't good against the run, and Sam Houston has two really talented running backs. I think they'll gash Western Kentucky for some big gains on the ground in this one.

Both teams have new coordinators in who are looking to push the pace. Both defenses are a big question mark.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Valkyries are a different team without Kayla Thornton. Thornton averaged 14 points per game and 7 rebounds per game. Without Thornton, Golden State has far less firepower, and they have leaned heavily on slowing the game down and winning with their defense.

Golden State has been the second best defense in the WNBA at home. They are allowing just 0.94 points per possession at home. 

Golden State has slowed their pace down drastically in recent weeks. In the last ten games, the Valkyries are playing more than 4 possessions per game slower than the second slowest team in the WNBA.

The Phoenix Mercury are one of the best defensive teams in the WNBA as well. In the last ten games, they are second in the WNBA in defensive efficiency. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins will be without star Kyle Stowers due to an injury. He has been the Marlins best hitter by a wide margin in the last month. Miami is just 21st in weighted on base average and home, and they are bottom four in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. 

Eury Perez hasn't been quite as good in his last couple starts, but Perez has fantastic advanced metrics. Even in his last start where he struggled, he still had 0 walks and 8 strikeouts. Perez has been tremendous at home in his career. He has a 2.00 ERA and a .253 wOBA allowed. All four of his starts this year at home have stayed under the total.

Liberatore has been up and down, but the Marlins are much better against righties. Also, Marlins Park is the third most pitcher friendly park in baseball so far this season.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, and we know how important that is for totals here. No ballpark in the majors is changed by the wind the way Wrigley is on a consistent basis. Under bettors have been treated extremely well in similar conditions here in the past. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 10 or 11 mph during this game. 

The Cubs have played 10 of their last 11 games under this posted total. They have gotten fantastic pitching, and their lineup has really slumped of late. 

The Pirates offense is arguably the worst in all of baseball, and I think Assad and the bullpen can keep them down here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Angels have been an over machine of late. The Angels lineup has been producing in a big way. Zach Neto and Taylor Ward have really come on this season, and Mike Trout has looked better in recent weeks too. 

The Athletics offense has been very good with their young talent. Kurtz, Langaliers, and Rooker are tremendous young talents. Tyler Anderson has allowed a .350 wOBA against this Athletics lineup.

These two bullpens both rank in the bottom eight in all the advanced metrics. Morales isn't likely to pitch deep into the game, and Anderson hasn't been completely healthy (back issues). 

Sutter Park is second in the majors behind only Coors Field in park factor. This is a very favorable park for hitters.

The over is 7-0 (and all 7 have gone over 10.5) in the Angels last 7 games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are top three in offensive production away from home. The New York Mets offense has underachieved for quite some time, but they have finally found their footing. The Mets have scored 31 runs in their last four games. 

Both the Mariners and Mets rank in the bottom four teams in the majors in batting average on balls in play in the last 30 days. They have been due for some positive regression, and we've started to see it the last couple days. Seattle won an 11-9 high scoring contest on Friday night.

Citi Field is a place where the weather matters quite a bit. The over trends are very strong here on warm days with the wind blowing out. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph with a temperature in the low to mid 80's for this one.

Shane Livensparger is one of the best over umpires in the league and he's behind home plate here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Sky offense has been atrocious in the last few games. The Sky have averaged just 68 points per game in their last six games. 

Golden State plays at the slowest pace in the WNBA. The Valkyries have slowed things down even more recently when they have been playing without some of their best scoring options. They are relying on their defense to win them games, and it has been working.

Angel Reese is one of the best Chicago players in terms of offensive efficiency (offensive rebounding machine), but she is one of their worst defenders. The Sky defensive ratings have been much better in recent contests.

The most recent meeting between these two was 73-66. 

The last six Chicago Sky games have gone under the total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Sky team has looked quite a bit different without Angel Reese since she's been out the last few games. Reese had the highest offensive ratings (largely because of her great offensive rebounding prowess) on the team, but she had the second lowest defensive efficiency ratings of any Sky player. With Reese out, the Sky have given more minutes to Onyenwere and Williams and they are two of the top three on the team in defensive efficiency.  Chicago's pace has slowed down drastically too in recent games.

The Sun have had a very poor season overall. They did just get rid of one of their worst defenders in terms of ratings (Sheldon) and they too have slowed down their tempo of late. 

In the last five games, the two teams at the bottom of the WNBA in terms of offensive efficiency are the Sky and the Sun. I think the offensive efficiency numbers from these two could be pretty bad. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Eury Perez is an excellent young starter for the Marlins. He had his first poor start in a long time in his last outing. Perez is in the top 7% of all pitchers in the majors with an expected batting average allowed of just .204 according to Baseball Savant. His velocity is up and he's averaging 98 mph on his fastball.

Gavin Williams has taken a big step forward for the Guardians this year. Williams has a 2.77 ERA at home on the season. Williams is inducing softer contact while at the same time creating more swings and misses. He has a 1.63 ERA in his last six starts. His WHIP in those six starts is an impressive 0.93. 

The weather will cool off in Cleveland the light winds will switch around after the morning rain to a wind from the north. Those are good conditions for the under at Progressive Field.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers are still the best offense in baseball when looking at the season long numbers. They are now expected to face Mederos who has very little big league experience and has struggled in that little time. This is a tough matchup for him, and I don't think he is likely to be in the game too long. 

Sheehan is a middle of the road right handed pitcher, and the Angels have been hitting the ball well of late. The Angels have seen four straight games go over this posted total. They have been getting good production out of Neto, Adell, and Mike Trout. 

Both bullpens rank in the bottom ten in the majors in ERA. The Angels middle relief is particularly poor and they are likely to be used a lot here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* Paul Skenes is conistently throwing the ball as well as any pitcher in baseball. Skenes has been throwing his very best of late. In his last 15 starts, Skenes has a 1.51 ERA.

Skenes has a 1.78 ERA on the road and a ridiculous low .226 weighted on base average allowed on the road in his career.

Skenes also has elite numbers against the Brewers lineup. In 45 plate appearances against Skenes, the Brewers lineup has a .116 batting average and a .129 wOBA. He has a 35.6% strikeout rate.

Freddy Peralta has been excellent at home during his career. He has a 2.13 ERA at home this year, and he's up against arguably the worst lineup in all of baseball. 

Miller Park ranks as the second most pitcher friendly ballpark in baseball in the last three years combined, and it is in the top five again this season. 

Roberto Ortiz is the home plate umpire here, and he is a very good under umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bryce Elder starts for the Braves here, and Elder has been really bad this season. He ranks in the bottom two percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. He's giving up a ton of hard contact, and his strikeout rate is far below average.

Edward Cabrera has a solid .268 weighted on base average allowed at home, but it is all the way up at .341 on the road. 

The Braves lineup has heated up a bit of late with Albies coming alive and some of the youngsters improving. The Braves are in the top half of the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days.

The Marlins offense is 11th in wOBA in the last 30 days. Miami's getting great production out of Stowers and Edwards in particular.

Whitson is the home plate umpire here, and the over is 38-25 in his last 63 behind home plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The temperature at Coors Field for this one is expected to be an extremely hot 95 degrees. The ball flies extremely well at Coors with this kind of temperature. Day games have been noted to be much better for the carry of the ball here too.

Kyle Freeland doesn't have much in the way of swing and miss stuff, and the Blue Jays are mashing the baseball of late. Even with a total this high, the Blue Jays have seen 7 of their last 10 games go over 11.5 runs. 

The Rockies have had five straight games go over this total as well. 

The Blue Jays are first in the majors in weighted on base average over the last 30 days. The Rockies are seventh in wOBA in that same period. 

I think both of the offenses can get enough going in these conditions to turn this into a high scoring contest.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Tarik Skubal vs. Zack Wheeler is an elite starting pitching matchup. I think runs will be difficult to come by in this one. 

Skubal has been the best pitcher in baseball this year. He has a 2.09 ERA and a 1.93 FIP. He has a ridiculous 19 walks and 171 strikeouts. The Phillies offense is a good one, but they are a little better against right handed pitching, and Skubal is the best lefty in the majors. 

Wheeler has a 2.56 ERA and a 2.69 FIP on the season. He has a 2.00 ERA and a fantastic .226 weighted on base average allowed at home. 

Skubal has held the Phillies lineup to a .143 batting average in 47 plate appearances. Wheeler has held the Tigers to a .114 batting average in 37 plate appearances.

The wind will be blowing in slightly here and the temperatures have cooled off in Philadelphia.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Cubs beat the Baltimore Orioles 1-0 on Friday in a game that took just 1 hour and 49 minutes. The wind at Wrigley Field was blowing in and it killed a couple baseballs that would have been home runs.

The forecast for this game calls for mid 70's and wind blowing in here at about 8 mph during the game. 

Matthew Boyd is coming off a poor start, but he has been tremendous this year for the Cubs. Boyd has a 1.95 ERA at home this year. The Orioles offense is much weaker than it was before the trade deadline, and Baltimore has struggled with lefties all year.

Sugano starts for the Orioles. He has struggled with the long ball, but the conditions here should help.

Emil Jimenez is a strike caller and he has frustrated quite a few hitters already this year. I think he'll be giving the pitchers some borderline strikes.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather matters at Wrigley Field more than any other park. A temperature in the mid 70's on a mild August day in Chicago is a nice start. The wind is expected to be blowing straight in at about 12 mph during this game too. There are many strong angles based on taking Wrigley Field totals based on the wind.

Cade Horton is a good young starter for the Cubs who has a 2.12 ERA and a .279 weighted on base average allowed at home this season. The Baltimore Orioles just gutted the second half of their previously solid lineup at the trade deadline too. This team is now awfully top heavy with some easier outs later in the order.

Trevor Rogers starts for the Orioles, and he has been fantastic this year. Rogers has allowed a total of 5 earned runs in his last 40 innings pitched. Rogers has done a great job keeping the ball in the park as well. The Cubs are a good lineup, but they have been better against right handed pitching than lefties.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners take on the Athletics in Sacramento at Sutter Park on Tuesday night. Sutter Park has been the second most hitter friendly park in baseball this year behind only Coors Field. The weather for Tuesday night calls for temperatures in the upper 80's when this one starts and the ball should be flying well.

Luis Severino has been great on the road this year, but at home he has been crushed. Severino has a 6.68 ERA and a whopping .360 weighted on base average in 66 innings pitched at Sutter Park this year. 

Seattle ranks first in the majors in wOBA on the road. The Mariners bats have been quieter over the last week, but a deeper inspection shows the reason why. Seattle is dead last in the majors with a very low .208 batting average on balls in play in the last week. The Mariners are still hitting it well but it has been finding gloves. This is still a good offense.

The Athletics have a lot of young talent on offense. Kurtz, Rooker, and Soderstrom are the best of the bunch. Logan Evans has a 3.64 ERA this year, but he has an expected ERA of 5.50. He has been very fortunate and this is a tough park.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* A great pitching matchup in Milwaukee tonight. Matthew Boyd has a 0.55 ERA and a 1.60 FIP in his last five starts. He has just 3 walks and 29 strikeouts in that five game stretch. Boyd has been amazingly consistent all season.

Jacob Misiorowski has been fantastic in general this season, but he has been lights out at home. He has a home ERA of 0.56 and a wOBA allowed of just .198. He is striking out more than 12 batters every nine innings.

Though both teams have hit pretty well of late, the Cubs have seen 7 of their last 11 finish under this total. The Brewers have seen 5 of their last 9 finish below the total.

I think both pitchers pitch well in this one and it stays lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brandon Woodruff has come back from injury and he's been absolutely dominating opposing hitters. Woodruff has 0 walks and 23 strikeouts in his three games back from injury. Woodruff has a 13.1% swinging strike rate, and he's been working from ahead in the count consistently.

Eury Perez is a really talented young starter for the Marlins. Perez has a 1.17 ERA and a 1.92 FIP in his last four starts. Perez has multiple plus pitches and his breaking stuff has great movement on it.

John Bacon is the home plate umpire here. The under is 28-12 in his last 40 games behind home plate. He has a high strikes called rate. He has a 3.22 strikeout/walk ratio since the start of 2024. He's a pitcher friendly umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Connecticut Sun are hosting the Golden State Valkyries in a rare early Sunday afternoon game. Golden State will be playing at what would be 10 am on their body clock as they go from the West Coast to the East Coast. 

The Sun are coming off a very high scoring 101-86 game against the LA Sparks in their last game. The Sparks play fast and have some of the highest scoring games in the WNBA on a consistent basis. That game going well over the total has given us some value in this one.

Golden State plays at the slowest pace of any team in the WNBA. The Valkyries have been a defensive minded team all season long.

The very early start times have trended under in the WNBA, and that has been even more the case on Sunday games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These are the top two teams in the CFL in terms of points per game allowed on defense. Montreal is also first in the CFL in yards per game allowed. These are two defensive minded teams. 

Montreal's Davis Alexander is out for this game. That means they will turn to a backup quarterback. I would expect more running of the football here, which should be a positive for the under. Additionally, the passing game will be slowed by one of their key receivers being out for this game.

Three of the last four meetings between these two have stayed under this total including a 19-19 tie in their last game. I think this one stays lower scoring too.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Guardians have had some horrible batted ball luck in the last month. As a team, Cleveland has a BABIP of just .237 in the last 30 days. The second lowest BABIP is the Dodgers at .257 during the last 30 days. 

Cleveland's offense has finally fired up in recent games though. The Guardians offense has scored 6 runs or more in six of their last seven games. They have been lead by Jose Ramirez, who has been smashing the cover off the ball.

Zach Eflin starts here for the Orioles. He's had a really bad season, and he is coming off the injured list and is expected to be limited. The Orioles bullpen is one of the worst in the majors, and their middle relief will see a lot of action in this one. 

Slade Cecconi has struggled at home, and the Orioles offense has been much better against right handed pitching than lefties.

The weather is warming up in Cleveland and the ball should be carrying better at Progressive Field with a game time temperature around 86 degrees. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* Rich Hill is expected to make the start here for the Kansas City Royals against his first team, the Chicago Cubs. Rich Hill is 45 years old and has struggled badly in the minor leagues so far this year. Hill has had a terrible 1.619 WHIP in Triple A this season. Hill had a 5.41 ERA in the majors two years ago in his last time as a starter in the big leagues. I don't expect him to be the solution for the Royals.

The Chicago Cubs have a top five offense in baseball. Chicago is a team that should put a lot of pressure on Hill and have baserunners throughout in this one.

The Kansas City offense has finally heated up of late. They have scored 7 runs or more in three of their last four games.

The wind is blowing out about 10 mph on a warm day at Wrigley Field here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* MacKenzie Gore has taken that next step this year. Gore is striking out 11.26 batters per nine innings. He has a 2.91 FIP on the season. Gore has a 2.39 ERA at home this year. Gore has a sparkling .240 weighted on base average allowed at home on the season. 

Nick Pivetta has a 2.88 ERA and a 3.10 FIP on the season. Pivetta has been much better in day games than night games in his career. Pivetta has a 3.70 career ERA in day games (5.05 in night games). 

Gore also has an ERA nearly a full run lower in day games in his career.

These two offenses are very inconsistent, and they are up against very good starters here.

Brian O'Nora is a major strike caller as the home plate umpire. He has called more than 65% of pitches a strike both this year and last season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees offense is first in the majors in weighted on base average for the year overall. Atlanta's offense has underachieved for the season as a whole, but the Braves have scored at least 4 runs in six straight games. They have scored 6 runs or more in four of those six contests.

Joey Wentz starts for the Braves here. Wentz is a subpar bullpen pitcher who is being thrown in for a rare start here. Wentz has a high walk rate and allows a bunch of baserunners. The Braves bullpen isn't deep either.

Will Warren starts for the Yankees. Warren has been great at home, but on the road he has a 6.75 ERA and a .353 weighted on base average allowed. 

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire in this one. He's one of the best over umpires in the majors in his long term history. He consistently has carried a very low strikes called percentage and a low strikeout/walk ratio. He is a hitter friendly umpire.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I do not like to make it a habit of betting an under this low. In this case, I'll do it because of a few key factors.

Jacob Degrom and Framber Valdez are elite pitchers who are in great form. Degrom has a 2.19 ERA and a 2.25 FIP in his last six starts. He has a wOBA allowed of just .249 this season. Valdez has a 2.15 ERA and a 2.71 FIP in his last 10 starts. That includes a poor start in his most recent outing (Dodgers). Valdez has a 1.83 ERA at home this season.

The Astros are elite against left handed pitching, but they are league average or a little worse against right handed pitching. The Rangers are 26th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

These bullpens are both in the top six in the majors in FIP so far this year. They have a good amount of depth.

Phil Cuzzi is one of the best under umpires in the business. The under is 62-41 in his last 103 games behind home plate. He has a very high strikeout/walk ratio year after year and is clearly a strike caller. Both of these veterans should be able to take advantage of this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Pirates are 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. The Pirates offense is easily dead last in the majors in the last 30 days in ISO, so they aren't showing much power at all. 

Joe Ryan is in the top 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average according to Baseball Savant. Ryan is in the top 13% of all pitchers in strikeout percentage and in the top 10% of all pitchers in fewest walks. His fastball has a ton of movement on it, and I think he can shut down the Pirates here.

Paul Skenes is already among the very best pitchers in baseball. Skenes is in the top 4% of all pitchers in expected ERA and he has a 1.94 ERA on the season. Skenes hasn't allowed a run in his last 10 innings pitched, and he has 1 walk and 15 strikeouts in those outings.

The Twins offense is 22nd in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days.

Both bullpens are clearly above average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mitchell Parker has been getting crushed of late. Parker has a 5.81 ERA and a 5.63 FIP in his last 5 starts. For the season, Parker has a 5.66 road ERA and his weighted on base average allowed on the road is a sky high .338. He is in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in baseball in exit velocity allowed. 

The Washington Nationals have seen 11 of their last 12 games get to a total of 9 runs or more. The offense has been improving of late behind Abrams and Wood. The Nationals bullpen has been getting smashed.

The Brewers offense is top 5 in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. Quinn Priester had a 3.59 ERA, but his FIP is up at 4.21 and he appears due for regression to the mean. DL Hall will open for him tonight.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks are first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Randy Vasquez starts for the Padres, and I feel he is due for some major regression. Vasquez has a 3.79 ERA and a 5.78 expected ERA. He has an extremely low batting average on balls in play allowed of just .245. In his last five games it is a ridiculously low .216. Vasquez is clearly getting fortunate. He is bottom 1% of all pitchers in baseball in whiff rate and strikeout rate. He is bottom five percent in the majors in expected ERA. 

Eduardo Rodriguez is an inconsistent starting pitcher. He is coming off a very poor start. He is also backed by a bottom five bullpen in the majors in Arizona. The Padres offense has been a bit better against left handed pitching.

I see both teams getting plenty of scoring opportunities in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Zac Gallen has struggled badly this year. Gallen has a 5.45 ERA and a 4.97 FIP on the season. He has a 6.29 ERA and a 5.64 FIP in his last ten outings. Gallen ranks in the bottom eight percent of all pitchers in the majors in hard hit baseballs so far this year. He also has struggled badly against the Padres in his career, and he has been much worse this year than he has been the majority of his career.

Yu Darvish comes off the injured list in this one. Darvish has a terrible history against this Diamondbacks lineup. Darvish has allowed a .360 weighted on base average in a large sample size of 177 plate appearances.

Arizona is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks bullpen is a bottom six or eight  bullpen in the majors right now.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox are third in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Boston faces a subpar left hander in Austin Gomber here. His numbers on the road are nearly as bad as his numbers at Coors in his career. Gomber is a low strikeout guy, and this is tough conditions. 

Richard Fitts struggled in the minor leagues this year, and now in the majors he has a 4.50 ERA and a 5.94 FIP. Fitts has had a lot of trouble with the long ball in his career even through the minors.

Fenway Park is one of the places where the weather matters the most. The weather for tonight calls for 83 degrees and winds blowing out about 10 or 11 mph during this game. That should really help the hitters a lot. Fenway has been very good to over bettors in these conditions in the long run.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sutter Park is a very hitter friendly park. In fact, in Baseball's Savant Park Factor ratings has it tied with Coors Field so far this season in park factor. This is clearly a great park for the hitters. The ball is flying extremely well in this small park. 

Hayden Birdsong has a 7.54 ERA and a 6.40 FIP in his last five starts. He has 16 walks and just 22 strikeouts in those five starts. Birdsong is giving up a ton of hard contact in his last few starts. This is a really dangerous park to do that.

Lopez starts for the Athletics. He has been solid, but the Giants have hit the ball much better of late, and I don't trust the Athletics bullpen behind Lopez either.

A total of 10 here for mediocre or below pitchers is good enough for me to look toward the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs are expected to have a bullpen game here with Drew Pomeranz being the starter. Pomeranz won't be around for very long, and Jordan Wicks is expected to get a decent amount of time here. Wicks has struggled quite a bit in his time in the majors in the last couple years. The Cubs middle relief isn't very strong.

Matthew Liberatore has had a good season, but this Cubs lineup is a top five lineup in baseball. Liberatore pitched well against them at home recently,  but the conditions will be different here.

Wrigley Field is a place where the weather makes a world of difference. The wind blowing out at Wrigley is great for over bettors, and that is even more the case when the temperature is hot as well. The weather for Saturday calls for low 90's with the wind blowing out at 12 mph. The ball should be carrying extremely well in this one.

With winds blowing out at least 7 mph and temperatures of 70 degrees or warmer the over is 52-30 in the last 82 games at Wrigley. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sandy Alcantara is in terrible form this year. Alcantara has a 6.98 ERA on the season. He ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA, expected batting average, and whiff percentage. He is getting hit hard regularly, and his strikeout rate is way down from a few years ago.

Milwaukee ranks top three in the majors in most of the major offensive categories for the last 30 days. The Brewers have gotten great contributions out of Sal Fralick and Brice Turang. William Contreras and Christian Yelich are stars as well. 

Quinn Priester has a good ERA this year, but under the surface there are some concerning signs. His FIP is quite a bit higher than his ERA, and his strikeout rate is running low. His expected batting average is in the bottom 40% of all pitchers in the majors. 

The Marlins are hitting the ball well of late. Edwards is a good leader for them, and Stowers is really coming into his own as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Coors Field day games in the heat have trended extremely high scoring in the long run. Blindly betting overs on totals of 11.5 or lower at Coors in day games has hit better than 58% in the last five years. 

Kyle Freeland has a 7.11 ERA and a .423 weighted on base average at Coors Field this year. The Houston Astros have a top three offense in the majors against left handed pitching. This should be a tough one for him.

Brandon Walter has been good so far this year, but this is a big test. Walter has a tendency to give up too many home runs, and these conditions are tough. Walter hasn't pitched anywhere similar to Coors Field.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Giants start Hayden Birdsong in this one. Birdsong is a youngster with plenty of promise, but he has proven streaky in his short career. He is up against a really tough lineup in a hitter friendly ballpark here. The Diamondbacks are second in the majors in runs per game at home. Chase Field is a top three hitter friendly park in the majors according to Baseball Savant's park factor ratings. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks start Zac Gallen here. Gallen has been in really bad form. Gallen has 7.04 ERA and a 6.59 FIP in his last eight starts. Gallen ranks in the bottom 13% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA. He has allowed 13 HR's in his last 46 innings pitched. Gallen has allowed 4 runs or more in seven of his last eight starts.

Chase Field should help out here and these two starters are in poor form.

Take the over in this one.

*3 Star Play Under* It's Canada Day and we have an early start time for this one. Max Fried and Kevin Gausman are matched up against each other in this one.

Max Fried has had one bad start all season, and that was against the LA Dodgers loaded lineup. Fried has five starts since that start, and he has a 1.91 ERA and a 2.45 FIP in those starts. He has only 5 walks and 34 strikeouts in those five outings. Fried has great career numbers against the Blue Jays lineup as well.

Kevin Gausman has been a bit up and down, but he has elite swing and miss stuff. He can walk too many at times, but the home plate umpire here should help. 

Both bullpens are clearly above average.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire, and he has been the most consistent strike caller and under umpire in the majors for the last decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Mariners have been amazing offensively on the road, but they still play in one of the toughest ballparks in the majors for hitters. Seattle averages a full run per game less at home vs. on the road. 

George Kirby has started the throw the ball better of late. Kirby came back slowly from an injury, but in his last five starts he has a 3.54 ERA and a 3.30 xFIP. That includes one poor start in Chicago where the wind was howling out at Wrigley Field. Kirby is a good starter in the long run, and he is up against a very weak offense.

Michael Wacha has been consistently very good this year. Wacha has a 3.33 ERA and a 3.60 FIP. Wacha does a nice job limiting hard contact.

The Royals have seen 6 of their last 8 games stay under this low total. In a pitcher's park with two solid starters, I like this one to stay low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox are 23rd in weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they are 5th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching this season. They are up against a mediocre in Eric Lauer in this one. 

Walker Buehler has been getting ripped this season overall, but he has been significantly worse in recent outings. Buehler has 10.14 ERA and a 8.13 FIP in his last five starts. Buehler is walking a lot of people, and he is giving up the long ball way too frequently.

Toronto's offense has been swinging the bat much better in recent weeks. Boston had been struggling a bit on offense of late, but they just put up 15 runs yesterday.

Fenway Park is one where the weather matters a lot and the wind is blowing out about 10 mph on a warm day in Boston here. 

Mark Wegner is the home plate umpire here, and he has one of the lowest strikes called percentages year after year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Spencer Schwellenbach is an underrated starting pitcher. Schwellenbach has a great combination of an ability to create swings and misses and not walk many batters at all. He is walking just 1.48 batters per nine innings. He has a chase rate that is in the top 4% of all pitchers in the majors. He has a 3.21 ERA on the year, and he has been even better at home. 

Jesus Luzardo had two really bad outings a few games ago. He was tipping his pitches. Now that he has taken care of that, Luzardo has been back to pitching very well. For the season, Luzardo has a 4.08 ERA, but his FIP is an excellent 2.77. 

The Phillies and Braves are both in the bottom ten in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. These two offenses have had quite a few down days of late. They are up against tough customers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Edward Cabrera can be a streaky pitcher, but he's ultra talented and he is in great form right now. Cabrera has a 1.46 ERA in his last five starts. That includes a scoreless 5 and 2/3 innings against the Giants on May 31st. 

Logan Webb is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Webb has a 2.49 ERA and a 2.22 FIP on the season. He has a 1.35 ERA at home in this pitcher friendly ballpark in San Francisco.

These are two bottom ten offenses in the majors in the last month. They both run into a really good pitcher who is throwing the ball very well here.

I like the starting pitchers to have the advantage here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Rays offense has been the best offense in baseball in the last 30 days. Tampa Bay has been crushing the baseball. The Rays have gotten great performances from Aranda, Caminero, and Diaz to lead the offense this season. 

The Kansas City Royals offense hasn't been very good this year, but they are in a positive situation here.

Taj Bradley is a very streaky pitcher, and he has allowed 19 runs in his last 9 and 2/3 innings pitched. Bradley has been giving up a lot of hard contact, and that is a real cause for concern.

Kris Bubic is having a good season, but he has tailed off a bit in recent starts. This is a tough matchup.

The weather here is a factor too. A game time temperature of about 90 degrees with winds of 8 or 9 mph blowing out should help the batters. This weather at Kaufman Stadium has really helped over bettors through the years.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are third in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Chicago Cubs are fourth in the majors in wOBA overall. These are two good offenses. 

The first two games in this series have finished 9-4 and 10-7. The hot weather and heavy winds blowing out are the perfect conditions for an over and a nice boost to the batters here. 

Overs at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out at 8 mph or more and a temperature above 75 degrees have an ROI of better than 15% in the last 15 years. 

Logan Gilbert is a good pitcher, but this is a difficult spot for him and he isn't quite 100 percent from his recent injury. Colin Rea is a below average starter, and I think the Mariners can get to him plenty here.

The umpire in this one is Edwin Moscoso who is one of the best over umpires in baseball. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers played a really high scoring second half that pushed the game a bit over the total in Game 5. There were a few things that stood out in that game. There were 37 offensive rebounds in that game. The two games before that had 19 and 16 offensive rebounds total. There were also 62 free throws in that game, and both teams made at least 80% of their free throws.

In the long run, NBA bettors taking the under in game 6 and game 7 of the playoffs have profited in a big way. It has been an even better angle when the home team is a small favorite or an underdog. When the home team is -2.5 to +10.5 the under is a whopping 65-32 with the average margin going under by more than 5.5 points. 

Tyrese Haliburton is a big question mark here. He's a huge key to the Pacers offense with his passing and scoring ability. 

This game should bring high intensity defense and I like it to stay lower scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been tremendous this year. Arizona is first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Diamondbacks are also tied for first in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.08 runs per game on the season.

Toronto is 11th in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. The Blue Jays offense has improved in recent weeks. The Blue Jays are 7th in OBP in the last 30 days.

Brandon Pfaadt has been bad this season. He ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in the majors in expected ERA and expected batting average allowed. He also ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in hard hit percentage allowed. 

Chris Bassitt started the season on fire, but he has come back down to earth of late. Bassitt has a 4.50 ERA and a 4.55 FIP since May 1st. He has a 5.87 ERA and a 5.16 FIP in his last four starts.

The Blue Jays bullpen is average or slightly below average. The Diamondbacks bullpen is a bottom five bullpen in the majors.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma City Thunder were the best defense in the NBA this year. They came up with the key stops that they needed last game down the stretch in a big comeback victory. 

In game four, the first quarter was 35-34, but then the rest of the game was a defensive battle played to a slower pace. The pace was 98.5 possessions in that one. That has been the slowest paced game in the series.

In a 2-2 game in the NBA Finals, this is a huge game for both teams, and I would expect the defensive intensity to be very high now.

With a slower pace and a game that means even more to both teams, I like the under here. Unless the game is a free throw fest, I like this to stay lower scoring. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Eury Perez has been a very highly ranked pitching prospect for the Miami Marlins. Perez looked pretty good in limited time last year. He has made just one start this year due to an injury. He started slowly against the Pirates in that game, but his minor league numbers suggest he has a bright future.

MacKenzie Gore has a stellar 2.86 ERA and a 2.63 FIP on the season. Gore also has allowed a great .240 weighted on base average against this Marlins lineup. In Gore's last five starts overall, he has a 1.57 ERA and a 1.64 FIP. He has allowed only one home run in his last five starts.

Both of these offenses are below average for the season. The Nationals are dead last in the majors in wOBA in the last 14 days.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The CFL season is back and I feel there is value in this game. The higher totals in the CFL have been good to under bettors, and that has been especially the case when the home team is either favored or a very short underdog. Toronto is a 1 point favorite in this one. 

The Toronto offense isn't all that dynamic with Arbuckle at quarterback. He also makes too many mistakes that end drives. 

Calgary just beat up on Hamilton's very weak defense last week, but I think they'll find it tougher going against the Toronto solid defense here.

Four of the last six meetings between these two have stayed under this total. Three of the six games have finished at 41 total points or lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Erick Fedde is due for some major regression. He has a 3.54 ERA but a 5.28 expected ERA. Fedde is in the bottom 12 percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. He is in the bottom 6 percent in whiff rate and his overall strikeout rate is way down from last year. 

Freddy Peralta is a quality pitcher, but he has overachieved his underlying stats as well. Peralta has a 2.69 ERA with a 3.60 expected ERA and 4.10 xFIP on the season. 

Fedde has been torched by this Brewers lineup. In 116 plate appearances, the Brewers have a staggering .400 batting average and a .473 weighted on base average. 

Peralta has been hit hard by the Cardinals lineup too. He has a .357 wOBA in 159 plate appearances. 

The two bullpens are both below average according to the advanced metrics.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Spencer Schwellenbach has racked up some really impressive numbers this year. He has 14 walks compared to 75 strikeouts on the season. Schwellenbach has 2 walks and 26 strikeouts in his last three starts. He has a 3.24 ERA on the season and his FIP is 3.26. 

Chad Patrick has a 2.84 ERA and a 3.23 FIP on the season. Patrick has a stellar 2.25 ERA and a .274 weighted on base average allowed at home this year. 

These two offenses have struggled to string together hits and big innings. I think the two starting pitchers can fare well in this one.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here, and he has been the most consistent under umpire in the majors in the last five years. Eddings continually has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and he is clearly a pitcher friendly umpire.

It is a get away day game and we could see a key bat or two out of the lineup. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense has been amazing all season. They are clearly a top five offense. They are also playing at Chase Field, and this is a hitter friendly ballpark. 

Arizona has seen 8 of their last 12 games finish with at least 9 total runs. Brandon Pfaadt is in the bottom one percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average. Arizona also has a bottom five bullpen in baseball. The Seattle Mariners are fourth in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. 

Bryan Woo is a good starting pitcher, but he has much better numbers at home during his career.

I think either team could have a big game here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Bowden Francis is in terrible form right now. Francis has 7.98 ERA and a 7.40 FIP in his last seven starts. Francis ranks in the bottom five percent of all pitchers in the majors in hard hit percentage allowed. He ranks in the bottom ten percent of all pitchers in the majors in expected batting average allowed and expected ERA. Francis has allowed a whopping 11 home runs in his last 29 innings pitched.

Joe Ryan is a good starting pitcher. Ryan has been a bit more shaky of late though with a lower swinging strike percentage and a higher walk rate. 

The Toronto offense is first in the majors by a wide margin in wOBA in the last 14 days. The Twins are 14th.

The wind is expected to be blowing out at 15 mph during this game. Those winds do change the game a lot in this park.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Storm offense has been showing signs of life lately. Seattle has scored 83 points or more in three of their last five games. 

Phoenix has been terrific offensively in their last few games. The Lynx have slowed them down, but they might have the single best defense in the WNBA. The rest of their recent games have been Phoenix really pouring it on offensively.

The recent meetings between these two teams have been low scoring because of abnormally low shooting percentages. I think this one normalizes and gets past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are third in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Seattle goes up against Kyle Hendricks in this one. Hendricks was previously a high quality pitcher, but he is well past his prime now. Hendricks relied on a very high chase percentage to be successful in the past, but he no longer carries those high rates. Hendrick isn't going to pile up strikeouts, and his walk rate is quite a bit higher than it was a few seasons ago too.

Bryce Miller is in the bottom 15th percentile in expected batting average. Miler has had very poor splits on the road in his career. Miller isn't 100% healthy and his form of late has been bad. 

The Angels bullpen ranks in the bottom five of the majors in all the major statistics. The Mariners bullpen is a below average bullpen by the numbers as well.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday night. Max Fried has a stellar 1.92 ERA on the season, but he is coming off a poor start against the Dodgers. I see this as a bounce back start for Fried. Fried has elite control and does a good job not giving up hard contact. The Guardians lack depth in the lineup. 

Slade Cecconi is a project, but he has ranked out pretty well in whiff rate in the early going. The Yankees do have several high strikeout guys in their lineup.

The Guardians and Yankees are both top six in the majors in defensive runs saved. These are two of the top ten bullpens in the majors.

Cory Blaser is the home plate umpire and the under is 10-2 in his 12 games behind home plate this year. He has an extremely high strikeout/walk ratio.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Dodgers and New York Mets have consistently been top five offenses in the majors this year. The Dodgers are first in the majors in weighted on base average and they obviously have a lot of pop in the lineup. The Mets have gotten some production out of the top of the lineup, and they have a good mixture of contact hitters and power guys.

Griffin Canning had a great start to the season this year. Canning seemed to be pitching far above every expectation for him. He has fallen off badly in the last three games though. Canning has 9 walks and 8 strikeouts in his last three starts. He has a 6.55 ERA and a 6.44 FIP. 

Tony Gonsolin has been struggling this season. In Gonsolin's last five games he has an ERA of 5.40, but his FIP is all the way up at 6.92. He has given up six home runs in his last 15 innings pitched. He has given up hard contact all season.

I see both offenses having chances for big innings here against starters who are struggling.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers have been poor on offense all season. They were gifted quite a few runs late by bad defense from the Cardinals on Sunday. On the whole though, the Rangers defense has been poor at stringing together hits. 

Drew Rasmussen has allowed a grand total of zero runs in his last three starts (18 innings pitched). Rasmussen has improved his control and opponents aren't hitting the ball as hard off of him as they did in some previous seasons.

Tyler Mahle has great movement on his pitches, and he has been tremendous this year. He has allowed two runs or less in all but one start. He excels at inducing soft contact. 

The Tampa Bay lineup has been inconsistent this season. The Rays have seen 10 of their last 15 games stay under this low total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense is fourth in the majors in weighted on base average. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.02 runs per game. They can score in a variety of ways and they should put pressure on Spencer Strider here. Strider is a really talented pitcher, but he isn't 100% yet coming back from a major injury. 

Zac Gallen has been really bad of late. He is in a major funk. Gallen has allowed 20 runs in his last four starts. Gallen has walked at least two batters in 10 straight starts. He ranks in the bottom 20% of all pitchers in the majors in average exit velocity allowed. 

The Braves lineup is healthier now and I expect them to improve their offensive output in the coming weeks. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets are 6th in the majors in weighted on base average. The Mets lineup has a lot of power in the middle, and the guys at the bottom of the order have done their jobs as well. 

The LA Dodgers offense is first in the majors in wOBA, and they are first by a mile in the last 30 days. The Dodgers have played in six straight games that have had at least 9 runs scored.

Dodger Stadium ranks as the sixth most hitter friendly park in the last two years. It is fourth most hitter friendly this year alone.

Paul Blackburn is a below average starting pitcher who has been injured and is being thrown into a very tough spot here against an elite Dodgers lineup. I don't think it will go well for him.

Dustin May has a worse wOBA allowed at home, and the Dodgers bullpen has been shaky of late.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers offense has disappointed all season. They are dead last in the majors in weighted on base average at home. It wasn't a few years ago, but this ballpark has become a very pitcher friendly park. 

The St. Louis Cardinals offense has been very good at home this year, but they are slightly below league average on the road. They are up against a really tough customer here in the form of Jacob Degrom.

Degrom has rounded into form very nicely after a slow start early in the season as he came back from a long break due to injury. He's still one of the best pitchers in baseball, and I like his chances here against the Cardinals.

Erick Fedde has been a mediocre starting pitcher in his career, but the Rangers are struggling badly against those middle of the road pitchers, especially when they are right handers at home.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks came away with an impressive win over the Indiana Pacers on Thursday night. The Knicks defense really contested shots well, and they did a great job keeping Haliburton in front of them in Game 5. 

While some of the games in this series have been very high scoring, that is now two of the last three games in this series that have finished at 206 points and 205 points. 

These potential closeout games can really tighten up especially later in the playoffs. These teams are so close to their final goal. The amount of effort that these teams are going to put in on the defensive end now compared to a regular season game is just tremendously different.

The Knicks have a defensive minded head coach. The Knicks will work to slow the pace down in this game.

Game six and game seven in the NBA playoffs have been very good to under bettors in the last 15 years. 

This is a pretty high total given the importance of the game. I'll take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants pitching staff has been amazing in recent weeks, while at the same time the offense has cooled off drastically from the red hot start they had to the season. The Giants have been an under machine of late. Their last seven games have stayed under this total. Also, 11 of their last 12 games have stayed under this total.

Robbie Ray has a 1.62 ERA and a 1.51 FIP in his last six starts. Ray has allowed zero home runs in those six starts. He has 9 walks and 44 strikeouts in that span. Ray is fully capable of dominating any lineup when he is on his A game. 

Edwin Cabrera started the season slowly for the Marlins, but he has been pitching well of late. Cabrera is a high upside guy who occasionally struggles with control. In his last four starts, Cabrera has a 2.53 ERA and a 2.84 FIP. He has walked only five batters in that span. 

These are two below average lineups, and I like the pitching to have the upper hand here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles offense is better than they have shown so far this year. Sean Burke is overmatched right now pitching for the Chicago White Sox. Burke has nearly as many walks as strikeouts in his ten starts in the majors this year. Burke is giving up a lot of home runs as well.

Zach Eflin is a middle of the road pitcher. The Orioles bullpen has been the worst in the majors so far this year.

The weather calls for a chance of rain here, and if it does rain and the bullpens are needed for even longer than normal in this one that is helpful for the over. Both of these are bad bullpens and the offenses should get a lot of chances against those groups.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Pablo Lopez has been absolutely dealing this year. Lopez has a 2.31 ERA and a 2.42 FIP on the season thus far. Lopez has only allowed more than 2 runs in one of his last eight starts. He has great control and has done a very good job avoiding giving up the long ball.

Drew Rasmussen has a 2.60 ERA and his advanced metrics all look very good as well. Rasmussen has pitched back to back games of 6 innings and no runs allowed. Ramussen also has a stellar 1.91 ERA in 117 and 2/3 innings in day games in his career. He has been at his best in these situations. 

For both of these teams, 7 of their last 10 games have been below this posted total.

These two offenses are both slightly below league average in weighted on base average. It's a get away day game and I think we'll see a key bat or two sitting this one out. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Brady Singer makes the start here against his old team in Kansas City. Singer has been inconsistent this year,  but he faces a Royals team that has been bottom six or seven in the majors in all the major offensive categories all year long. The Royals have been especially weak offensively at home. 

The Royals start Lynch in this one, but it will be a bullpen game. The Royals bullpen is fifth in the majors in ERA. Kansas City is giving up the second fewest runs per game in the majors so far this year.

There will be cool temperatures and a slight breeze blowing in from center field for this game.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the best under umpires in the game. Kuilpa continually has a very high strikeout/walk ratio and is a pitcher friendly umpire.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Rangers are back home to host the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday. Texas starts Jacob Degrom in this one. Degrom started the season a bit slowly in his return from injury, but he has been tremendous in his last seven starts. In those seven starts, Degrom has a 1.66 ERA and a 2.43 FIP. He's walked just six batters in those seven starts. Degrom is back to his dominant self.

Kevin Gausman has had a nice season for the Blue Jays as well. He's actually due for some positive regression with a 4.30 ERA and a 3.37 FIP on the season thus far.

Both of these pitchers have a good history against these lineups. These lineups are both in the bottom eight in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. 

Globe Life Field in Texas is a top five pitcher's park between last season and this season. Both of these bullpens are above average too.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Cory Blaser is the home plate umpire for this game. Blaser has been a pretty good under umpire for many years now, but he is taking it to the next level this year. Blaser's games are 9-1 to the under. Those records can be a fluke, but his strikeout/walk ratio is well over 4 and is easily the highest of the regular umpires in the majors. Blaser is the ultimate pitcher friendly umpire this season.

The Cardinals lineup is banged up right now. Contreras has hit the ball well off Kelly in the past, but he was scratched from last night's game with back issues and he is questionable here. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been much better on offense against right handed pitching. Liberatore has been excellent for the Cardinals this year. He doesn't walk hardly anyone, and he does a good job not giving up hard contact.

Merrill Kelly has been very good in his last few starts, and I like his chances against this weakened Cardinals lineup.

The wind is blowing in here and in these conditions the under has been very good in St. Louis.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average so far this year. The Baltimore Orioles are 22nd in the majors in weighted on base average this season so far. 

Chad Patrick has been good for the Brewers this year. He does a good job minimizing walks, and Patrick has been excellent when pitching at home. The Orioles lineup has had a hard time stringing together hits.

Sugano has four walks and 20 strikeouts in his last four starts for the Baltimore Orioles. He has been remarkably consistent this year. Sugano has a .250 weighted on base average on the road this season. 

Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here and he is one of the best under umpires in the majors. He is a strike caller and he should help both pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Mariners are second in the majors in wRC+ on the road. Seattle is also third in the majors in wOBA on the road. Seattle's lineup has hit Nick Pivetta extremely well in the past. Pivetta has allowed a whopping .443 weighted on base average in 96 plate appearances. He has allowed ten home runs in those 96 plate appearances as well.

Pivetta started the season on fire, but he has struggled a bit more in his last couple starts. He isn't a bad pitcher by any means, but I do think he is due for some regression to the mean. 

Emerson Hancock is a below average starter up against an above average San Diego lineup. Hancock has a 6.91 ERA and a 5.94 expected ERA so far this season. His expected batting average allowed is in the bottom 4% of all pitchers in the majors according to Baseball Savant. The Padres should have plenty of scoring chances.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Knicks were embarrassed with their defensive performance in Game 5. Tom Thibodeau is a defensive minded coach, and he talked a lot about their poor closeouts and poor transition defense last game. 

Boston put up a ridiculous 1.396 points per possession on offense last game. The Celtics aren't likely to shoot the ball as well here, and the Knicks are almost surely going to contest those jumpers much better than they did last game.

The pace in Game 5 was slower than the series average at just 91 possessions. As the games get bigger the pace usually slows down. If we assume a pace of 91 possessions again, it would take both teams averaging about 1.16 points per possession (very high for playoff basketball) for this to get to the total.

Betting on game 6 and game 7 unders in the NBA playoffs has been a big winning proposition in the long term. Blindly betting on these in the past 16 years has given under bettors an ROI of 11.2%.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Nuggets go back home down 3-2 and facing elimination if they lose this game. Oklahoma City fought very hard and dominated Denver in the 4th quarter in Game 5 to get a 3-2 series lead. 

The last three games have seen the final totals finish at 217 (in overtime), 179, and 217 total points. The pace has slowed down some and the defenses have been forcing quite a few turnovers.

In the NBA playoffs, Game 6 and Game 7 unders have done well, and when it is the team oddsmakers rate higher on the road that has been especially true. For example, when home teams in game 6 or 7 who are priced at -2.5 to +10.5 on the spread, the under is a whopping 65-31 to the under. The average margin is more than 5.5 points to the under.

Denver isn't likely to give up easily and I like this one to be a defensive battle.

Take the under.