*3 Star Play Under* The Longwood Lancers lost to the Gardner Webb Runnin' Bulldogs earlier this year by a score of 76-64 earlier this year. There is one stat that stands out as ridiculous from that first game. Gardner Webb went 12/13 from the 3 point line in that win! The Bulldogs are just 33.8% from the 3 point line as a team for the season overall. We certainly can't expect them to knock down everything from long range again.

Longwood shoots a lot of shots from mid range and near proximity. They don't shoot many 3 point jumpers. Gardner Webb is first in the conference in 2 point field goal percentage defense. That is a positive for the under in this one.

The first game stayed well under even with one team going 12/13 from 3. These teams have a history of playing lower scoring games against each other. 

I think this number is set too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders stand out as a team who is elite at getting great shots near the hoop. Wright State is second in the nation in field goal percentage. Wright State is 12th in the nation in near proximity (layups, tip ins, and dunks) offense. They are up against a Fort Wayne team that has been atrocious at defending near the hoop. They are 356th at near proximity defense. Fort Wayne lacks shot blockers. Wright State put up 106 points in a 106-98 win at Fort Wayne earlier this year. Wright State has scored 92 points or more in four of their last five games. I think they'll do it again in this one.

Fort Wayne is good from 3 point range. They are shooting 36.8% from long distance in the conference. Wright State's defense is giving up 38.5% from 3 point range. The Raiders are poor in transition defense, and Fort Wayne excels at getting steals and scoring in transition off those steals. 

The first game was played at a pace of 83 possessions. This one won't be that fast, but I expect a very quick tempo. It's a high total, but I don't think it is high enough.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The High Point Panthers and Winthrop Eagles met earlier this year and that one finished 83-81. There were 59 free throws taken in that game. Normally that might sound abnormal, but with these two offenses that has been the norm. Winthrop is first in the country in FTA/FGA and High Point is 7th. Additionally, these two teams both have struggled to defend without fouling. 

High Point is 10th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. They are 30th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are averaging 1.19 points per possession in the Big South. 

Winthrop has been significantly better on offense away from home in Big South action than they have been at home. The Eagles have played their last two road games to 158 and 154 points even against slower teams in Longwood and Radford.

The offenses should have a clear advantage here, and the trips to the free throw line should help a bunch.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The BYU Cougars were playing pretty good defense in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but it has all completely fallen apart in the Big 12. BYU is giving up 1.11 points per possession in the Big 12. In their last three road games they have allowed 82 against Oklahoma, 93 points at Oklahoma State, and 84 points at Kansas State. None of those teams are all that good on offense.

BYU is still very good on offense. Kansas is shorthanded with McCullar injured and he is one of the better defenders on the team. BYU is 9th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They play at a very quick pace too. 

Kansas is first in the Big 12 in average possession length, and I think they'll be happy to run in this game. The Jayhawks have a clear matchup advantage with Hunter Dickinson here. I don't think BYU has anyone good enough defensively in the frontcourt to slow him down.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights defense has been elite at home. Rutgers is giving up just 0.863 points per possession at home in Big Ten play. The Scarlet Knights have a great shot blocker down low and multiple good guards who do a good job keeping the ball in front of them. 

Maryland is 13th in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency. The Terrapins rely far too much on one guy in Jahmir Young. He is a tremendous player, but the lack of a consistent second option really slows down this offense. 

Maryland is sixth in the nation in defensive efficiency. Rutgers is third in the nation in defensive efficiency. These two played earlier this month and it was 56-53. Recent higher scoring games for these teams has propped up this total, but they are back to playing another defensive minded foe here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* San Francisco has been playing really quick in conference play. The Dons have been an offensive machine on their home floor, and they have gotten into a bunch of shootouts. 

Pepperdine is a very weak defensive team. The Waves are allowing opponents in the WCC to shoot better than 40% from 3 point range. San Francisco is more than capable of torching the nets here. 

Pepperdine should get to the line a good amount against a San Francisco team that fouls quite a bit. The Waves have several good scorers in Ajayi, Porter, and Mallette. 

Pepperdine has scored 91 and 89 points in their last two games. San Francisco has put up 90 points or more several times at home this year.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bradley Braves have been excellent offensively at home the last couple seasons. Bradley is great on the offensive glass, and they are shooting 39% from 3 point range. Bradley does foul too much, and that has allowed opponents to stay closer at times. Illinois State is shooting 73% from the FT line in conference.

Freshman Johnny Kinzinger has been a huge boost to the Illinois State offense since he joined the starting lineup a few games ago. He's a great outside shooter. Bradley gives up a lot of open 3's.

The first game between these two saw just 13 total points from the free throw line. This one should have more.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Davidson Wildcats offense is really a mess without star big man David Skogman. Skogman hit 5 three pointers and scored 24 points in Davidson's OT loss to Richmond earlier this year. Davidson has picked up their defense nicely, but the offense is really struggling.

Richmond is the best defense in the A10. The Spiders are 18th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are excellent at getting defensive boards and defending without fouling. 

Both teams prefer to play a slow pace and I expect this to be played in the halfcourt.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* SIU Edwardsville was playing slower for much of this season, but they appear to have reverted back to a faster pace. They have clearly been playing quicker here near the end of the season. SIU Edwardsville has been in six straight games with a minimum of 147 total points scored. All of those games except for one hit a minimum of 151 points. 

Tennessee State fouls at a very high rate. SIU Edwardsville is shooting nearly 77% from the FT line in conference. TN State is better offensively at home, and they should get open looks here too.

Neither of these teams has much of anything to play for here late in the regular season- these games have trended to the over in the past decade in college hoops.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Dakota State Bison have typically been a good defensive team. They have been one of the few good defensive teams in the Summit League in the past decade. They started this season playing bad defense, but they have turned it around a lot in recent weeks. 

North Dakota State just held St. Thomas to 50 points last game. They held Oral Roberts to 60 points recently. They held North Dakota to 60 points early this month.

North Dakota isn't a good outside shooting team, and they prefer to play at a slow pace. This team gets a lot of offensive rebounds, but North Dakota State is easily first in the league in defensive rebounding percentage.

The first game between these two was 60-58 and played to a very slow pace of just 62 possessions. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Vermont has played 10 straight games under this total. The Catamounts are the better team here, and they have consistently been able to get games to be played at their tempo instead of the pace that their opponents want to have. 

Albany is without two of their key players (Jackson and Beagle) due to injury. The Great Danes offense doesn't pack the same punch right now. Albany is elite on defense at defending the 3 point line. Vermont isn't good at getting the ball inside and the Catamounts don't get many offensive rebounds. 

Albany relies on second chance points, but Vermont is fifth in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. Vermont has been elite for years at defending without fouling and giving teams only one chance. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Fairleigh Dickinson is top ten in the nation in tempo. They are all about pushing the pace, and Sacred Heart is now healthy and pushing the tempo whenever they can as well. 

The last four games between these two teams have finished with 157 points, 177 points, 180 points, and 184 points. These teams get into track meet type games against each other consistently. 

Both of these teams are excellent at getting quick steals and scores, and both defenses foul far too much. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The North Carolina A&T Aggies have been without their star Landon Glasper for the last seven games. All seven of those games without Glasper have stayed under this total. Only two of those games have even topped 130 points.

Things were bad without Glasper, but now A&T is without him and two other starters. Coach Monte Ross said the team is "hoping for a miracle cure" for them to be ready for the conference tournament. Based on that I would expect them all to miss this game. 

NC A&T has clearly decided to stall and try to make it a lower scoring low possession game without their scorers. I can't blame them.

Stony Brook plays at a slightly below average pace. North Carolina A&T's defense is weakest in the paint, but Stony Brook settles for 3's and mid range jumpers at a high rate. Stony Brook defends without fouling, and A&T has relied on getting to the line to score.

I think this total is too high based on the circumstances. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Pepperdine won 93-78 in the first meeting between these two teams. Pacific has been better at home on the offensive end. Pepperdine has strangely been far better on offense on the road, but their defense has been worse on the road. The Waves have had some very high scoring games away from home.

These two teams are both bottom ten in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Both offenses have done a good job not turning the ball over on offense. They have also both gotten to the free throw line at a pretty high rate.

Subpar teams matching up against each other late in the regular season have trended pretty strongly to the over in the last 15 or 20 years in college hoops. This one certainly fits.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Navy Midshipmen defense has been atrocious on the road this year. In the Patriot League, Navy is allowing a whopping 1.242 points per possession. They have allowed at least 69 points in every conference road game they have played. 

Loyola Maryland is 316th in the nation in defensive efficiency. This is a team that has looked quite a bit better on offense their last couple games though.

These are the number one and number two offensive rebounding teams in the league. Navy is forcing a lot of turnovers, and they should get quick points off those steals. They are 89th in the country in quick points on breakaway steals. Loyola is 323rd in the country at allowing those.

This is a low total, and I think it is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a low total, but for an Army game this is actually set higher than they are accustomed to. Lehigh does play pretty quickly, but Army slowed the pace down in a 68-57 win over Lehigh on the road recently. I think the Army team is likely to control the pace again here.

Army's last ten games have all stayed under this total in regulation. One of those ten finished at 120 after overtime. Army has multiple very good shot blockers, but they don't foul at a high rate. 

Lehigh is a mediocre defense, but Army is 354th out of 362 in the country in offensive efficiency. 

These teams are both top 50 in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars are ranked number one in defensive efficiency in the country. Iowa State is ranked third in the country in defensive efficiency. This is a meeting of two elite defenses. The first game between these two was 57-53 earlier this season. 

Both teams prefer to play at a slow pace, and I think this will be a 63 possession type game here. 

Both of these teams force a ton of turnovers, but these two are both great in transition defense. I think that means plenty of turnovers, but not many runouts for easy scores. 

The line has bumped up several points today, and with this move I have to go with the under.

The total in the first game was 129.5. It sailed below the total. This now has a higher total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first meeting between these two teams finished 58-55 in overtime. The game was 45-45 after regulation. We had the under in that one, and I'm going to take the under again here. I'm certainly not going to expect that low scoring of a game here. Still, the way that first game was low scoring encourages me to take the under again here. That first game was filled with low quality mid range jumpers.

Coppin State is 361st in the nation (out of 362) in offensive efficiency. Maryland Eastern Shore is 360th. These two teams are routinely scoring 0.85 points per possession or so. 

Both teams force a lot of turnovers, and both offenses turn the ball over a lot. Neither team has been good at taking advantage of those turnovers and scoring transition though. 

A sloppy game is what I expect again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are second in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are behind Houston and just ahead of Iowa State. Rutgers has won four straight games coming into this one, and it has been on the shoulders of the defense behind the best it has been all year. 

Rutgers has scored 63 points or fewer in five of their last seven games. The Scarlet Knights offense still has problems. They are averaging just 0.926 points per possession in Big Ten play.

Minnesota has been absolute money in the bank ATS this year. Their defense is much improved from last year. The Golden Gophers do try to slow the game down. They have been good defensively at home. In their last three home games they have allowed 61 points (Wisconsin), 66 points (61 in regulation- NW), and 56 points (Michigan State).

The best defense in the Big Ten and a game that should play in the mid 60's in tempo.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles will likely be without second leading scorer Jordan Lathon for this game. He has missed the last three games due to an injury. Morehead State ranks first in the OVC in defensive efficiency. Morehead State's offense has been efficient at home, but they have only been ok on offense on the road. Their splits are pretty significant.

UT Martin has improved quite a bit on defense this year. The Skyhawks are 97th in effective field goal percentage defense. They are great at defending without fouling. They also have been very good at defending the 3 point line, and Morehead State takes a lot of shots from long distance. 

The first game was played to just 63 possessions. KenPom has this pace projection at 69 possessions, but I think that is too fast.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights are allowing just 0.881 points per possession at home this year. That is 6th best in the country. They are third in the nation in blocked shots percentage. Cincinnati is shooting 30.2% from 3 point range, and the Bearcats try to work it inside as much as possible. That makes UCF and their big front line of shot blockers a tough matchup for the Cincinnati offense.

UCF is last in the Big 12 in effective field goal percentage offense. This offense doesn't have good spacing, and they end up taking far too many contested mid range jumpers. If they aren't getting to the line or getting offensive rebounds, they can really go through long scoring droughts. Cincinnati is 25th in defensive rebounding percentage in the country. The Bearcats are 62nd in the nation at defending without fouling.

The first game between these two was just 125 points total and played at a very slow pace of 63 possessions. I think this total is set too high once again.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats are 13th in the Sun Belt in offensive efficiency. They don't have good outside shooters, and they rely on getting to the basket about as much as any team in the country. Southern Miss has great interior defense. The Golden Eagles are 30th in the nation in blocked shots percentage. Southern Miss is also third in the conference at defending without fouling.

Texas State is excellent on the defensive glass, and this Bobcats team has been solid overall on defense for several years in a row. Texas State is well known for slowing the tempo down. They slowed it down in their 60-55 win over Southern Miss a couple weeks ago. They should do it again here.

Southern Miss is shorthanded right now, and the Golden Eagles were just held to 59 points by lowly UL Monroe in their last game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts have the best defense in the American East conference. Vermont is also excellent at controlling the pace of the game. They are the second slowest paced team in the league. They have slowed down both Albany and UMBC who ultra fast paced teams. 

Vermont grabs defensive rebounds at the best rate of anyone in the league. They defend without fouling better than anyone else. 

New Hampshire is elite when it comes to 3 point defense. They like to push the pace on offense, but they are inefficient on offense. I expect them to have a hard time getting open looks against this Vermont defense. 

New Hampshire is second in the league at defending without fouling. 

A slower pace and not many free throws should help a lot with an under. I had this number a good amount lower than this. 

Take the under. 

*This number has moved down some as the market adjusts here. I would advocate a 4 star rated play at 138.5 or higher and a 3 star play at anything below that. Thanks and good luck* 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have fully embraced their slower tempo as the season has moved along. This team is far better when they are controlling the pace and trying to win with winning the turnover battle and defending without fouling.

East Carolina played six straight games under this total before their last game against UTSA went way over. UTSA is an over team that runs at every chance. 

Wichita State has played to the pace of their opponent for much of the season. The Shockers played to the pace of East Carolina in the first meeting. That was a 54-52 final. I'm certainly not expecting a game that low scoring here, but I do think a total in the upper 130's is too high. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Ty Berry has been a really key piece to the puzzle for Northwestern this year. Berry shot over 43% from 3 point range and had been playing very well. He was hurt recently and Coach Collins announced he would miss the rest of the season. Northwestern ranks in the bottom 25 in bench minutes. They lack the depth in the backcourt to replace this key of a player. I think their offense will suffer quite a bit. They struggled against Penn State and play a much better defense here.

Rutgers is allowing 0.855 points per possession at home in conference play. The Scarlet Knights are second in the country in defensive efficiency (behind only Houston). This team has an elite shot blocker in Omoruyi, and they force quite a few steals as well. On offense, Rutgers is averaging just 0.922 points per possession in Big Ten play.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins have played 13 games in Big Ten play. All 13 of those games has been under the total after regulation. Maryland plays at a slow pace, and they are far better on defense than offense.

The strength of Maryland's defense is their ability to stop opponents from getting to the basket. Iowa in past years has been an outside shooting team, but this year the Hawkeyes are very heavy on getting to the rim. Iowa struggled to get to the rim with success on Maryland in Iowa City earlier this year. I think they'll struggle to be as efficient as normal again here. 

Maryland has scored 69 points or fewer on offense in 10 of their 13 Big Ten contests. The Terrapins are far too reliant on Young in their halfcourt sets. Iowa's defense isn't good, but they have allowed only 67 and 69 points against Maryland the last couple times they have played.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. Joe's Hawks have pushed pace to the extreme of late. They played an 80 possession game against St. Louis last time out. They also lost 94-79 (73 possessions) against a Dayton team that generally slows the pace down in a big way. 

St. Joe's lost 78-75 at home to Loyola Chicago. That game was played to a pace of 75 possessions. The shooting numbers were below average for both teams or the game would have been even higher.

Loyola has an elite defense near the basket, but they do give up a lot of open looks from 3. St. Joe's is extremely 3 point heavy, and I think they'll get a lot of good looks from long range here. 

Loyola Chicago has a big edge on offense from 3 as well. St. Joe's is allowing 38.8% from 3 point range in A10 play. 

I think the pace is very quick again and the offenses are more efficient. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Army Black Knights have been a great under team this year. Army plays at an extremely slow pace. They are also 354th out of 362 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. Army does block a lot of shots defensively, and they don't give up many offensive rebounds. 

Boston University is first in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are just 328th out of 362 teams in the country in offensive efficiency. 

The first game between these two was just 61 possessions, and Army won 69-59. Army shot a whopping 62.5% from 2 point range in that game. They average shooting 45.5% from 2 point range in conference play (46.1% for the year). 

I think this game will be played very slowly again. I don't think the efficiency will be as high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones are playing nearly two seconds per possession slower in Big 12 action compared to what they were in the non-conference portion of their schedule. 

Iowa State is third in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Cyclones excel at forcing turnovers. Cincinnati has been turning it over on 19% of their offensive possessions so far this year. The Bearcats are tenth in the Big 12 in offensive efficiency. Cincinnati doesn't have many outside shooters, and Iowa State is good at defending near the hoop.

Cincinnati is 20th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bearcats are 73rd in the country at defending without fouling. 

Iowa State just played their slowest paced game of the year against TCU (very fast paced team). The Cyclones recent trends makes this an under play for me.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Indiana Screamin' Eagles are a free throw machine. They get to the line more than any other team in the OVC. They also foul more than any other team in the OVC. Both SIU Edwardsville and Southern Indiana have been really good from the free throw line in the conference. 

SIU Edwardsville has been playing to the pace of their opponent. Southern Indiana toyed with playing at a slower tempo earlier in the year, but they have sped up in a big way as the season has moved along. Their full season stats are too slow and low scoring. Their recent stats would have this total a decent amount higher than this.

The pace should be quicker than expected and there should be plenty of free throws in this one too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* UNLV beat New Mexico 83-73 a few weeks ago in Las Vegas. I think New Mexico gets their revenge here and their offense puts up a big number. 

UNLV has been very weak in transition defense this year. New Mexico is going to push the pace and I think they'll get this game played to a faster pace than the first game. The Pit is a really good home court advantage. House is a terrific point guard and they have scorers all around him.

The Boone's took over in game one, and they do give New Mexico a matchup problem here once again. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Gonzaga Bulldogs travel to Kentucky to take on the Wildcats in a huge game for the Bulldogs.  Gonzaga needs this one with their weak strength of schedule and middling (by their standards) results this year.

Gonzaga always pushes the pace and they are 32nd in average possession length this year. Kentucky is top ten in tempo this season. This should be a track meet.

Kentucky's offensive efficiency at home this year has been excellent. The Wildcats are averaging more than 1.34 points per possession at home this year against Top 100 opponents. Gonzaga fits that perfectly.

Gonzaga isn't accustomed to playing speed and offensive talent like Kentucky's. 

Kentucky hasn't shown the ability to play much defense at all in recent weeks.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts are excellent at slowing the game down. I'm confident they'll do their best to slow this pace down in a big way against UMBC. 

UMBC is 4th in the country in tempo, but Towson and NJIT slowed them down a lot. Vermont also played UMBC to their slowest paced game of the season in the first meeting between these two teams. 

Neither of these teams get to the line much at all, and neither defense fouls much. They are both bottom 30 in the nation in FTA/FGA. I wouldn't expect many fouls in this one. 

I'm counting on Vermont's defense to show up ready to go after they were upset by NJIT on Thursday night. 

Vermont has played 22 games against Division One opponents this season. None of those games have gone over this posted total. A nice 22-0 trend. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The High Point offenses has been a thing of beauty this year. Alan Huss was with Creighton for quite a while, and he has a tremendous offensive system. High Point is running it to perfection. They are living at the free throw line, and getting a lot of easy looks from the floor in the half court. 

High Point has amazingly scored 78 points or more in 12 straight games. They have scored 81 points or more in 9 of their last 11 games. Not surprisingly, the over is 9-2 in their last 11 games. 

Gardner Webb isn't bad defensively overall, but they foul like crazy. High Point will take advantage of that. Gardner Webb gets to the line quite a bit too, and the weakness of the High Point defense is they foul too much. 

Gardner Webb has shot the 3 well in the league. High Point shoots 80% from the free throw line in Big South play.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* UT Martin is aggressive and takes the ball inside quite a bit. They have had trouble against teams with really good defensive big men. The best defensive big man in the OVC is Drew Cisse. He is a tremendous shot blocker and he changes the game in a big way.

Western Illinois plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the OVC. They have been great at getting teams to play at their preferred pace. They slowed down the first meeting between these two and I think they'll do it here too.

Western Illinois still struggles offensively, and UT Martin is improved on defense. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Dons have really picked up their pace in WCC action. San Francisco is second in the league in average possession length. They are first (ahead of Gonzaga) in overall tempo. San Francisco has scored 79 points or more in six of their league games. The pace in each of their last four games has been at least 71 possessions. 

Pepperdine is 301st in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are giving up 1.194 points per possession in the league. They are first in the league in getting to the free throw line on offense though, and the Dons have fouled a lot this season.

KenPom projects just 67 possessions, but I think 70 possessions is a better guess here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Illinois Leathernecks have only had 2 of their last 11 games go over this total. Western Illinois is the slowest paced team in the Ohio Valley Conference. They have done a very good job of controlling the pace even against the quickest paced teams in the league.

Little Rock started the season playing really quickly, but they have slowed significantly in recent weeks. In fact, they have had five straight games played to 69 possessions or fewer. That is despite playing a couple very fast paced teams during that five game stretch.

Little Rock likes to try to score inside, but Drew Cisse is a shot blocker who should give them a lot of trouble. He is at the heart of Western Illinois and their defensive improvements this year.

Little Rock is due for some regression to the mean on their "free throw defense" with OVC opponents shooting 80% from the line against them. Western Illinois shoots 62.9% from the line.

Take the under here.  

*3 Star Play Under* The first game between these two teams was 75-74 in overtime. It was 69-69 before the extra session.

Mount St. Mary's has improved defensively during the season. They have also slowed their pace down some once again as they have in previous seasons. They have defended without fouling in the league. Three straight opponents have been held to 66 points or fewer. 

Manhattan is dreadful on offense. They are 340th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They have defended without fouling and done a decent job on the defensive glass.

These teams both rank in the bottom 30 in the country in FTA/FGA so we shouldn't expect many trips to the line.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The first game between these two MVC foes was 64-62 and played at 65 possessions. KenPom has this game projected at 67 possessions, but I think that is likely too fast. I expect 65 possessions or so again. 

A big strength of both of these teams is they do not give up second chance points. They are also very good at defending without fouling. 

Northern Iowa has been far worse on offense at home than they have been on the road. Their efficiency numbers at home especially in conference play have been very poor. Northern Iowa's last 5 home games have stayed under the posted total, and none of them have been even close.

Missouri State has settled for contested mid range jumpers far too much this year. 

I think the defenses hold the upper hand in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* For the season as a whole, Baylor is shooting 41.8% from 3 point range. That is the best mark of any team in the country. The Bears have slumped a bit in Big 12 play from deep, but they go up against the worst 3 point defense in the conference tonight. I expect Baylor to a lot of clean looks from long range in this one.

Texas Tech has been better offensively and worse defensively on the road this year. In fact, in the Red Raiders road games they have averaged a whopping 1.26 points per possession. They are allowing 1.082 points per possession on the road. 

The Red Raiders have gotten a lot of good offense from big man Warren Washington. Chance McMillan has stepped in and really played well in recent games as well in the backcourt. 

Baylor's backcourt led by RayJ Dennis should have a big day here. I think both teams will be efficient.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins have played 7 of their 11 Big Ten games below this very low posted total. Maryland is first in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. They are also second slowest in the Big Ten in overall tempo. They have been very good at controlling the pace of the game.

Rutgers is second in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. The Scarlet Knights are well known for their tough defense with Omoruyi down low blocking shots and the guards contesting shots on the outside very well.

Maryland and Rutgers are second to last and last in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency. Both of these teams really struggle to get good looks from the floor.

It was 64-50 when these two met last year, and both teams are far worse offensively this season.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Lafayette Leopards have been elite defensively in the Patriot League. Lafayette is giving up just 0.939 points per possession in the league. That combined with their extremely slow tempo and subpar offense has led to some extremely low scoring games for them.

Army is the slowest paced team in the league. They are 354th out of 362 teams in the country in tempo. They are also a terrible 355th in offensive efficiency. Army is pretty good on defense when it comes to holding teams to one shot.

These two met earlier this year and it was played to just 56 possessions (only 52-47 the final score too). That's one of the slowest games in college basketball this year. I think it will be 60 possessions or lower again here. 

The defenses have a big advantage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Poly Mustangs do a great job slowing down the pace. They are also really inefficient on offense. Cal Poly is 349th in offensive efficiency in the country. 

UC Davis does push the pace at times, and they are pretty good on offense. The Cal Poly defense isn't terrible, and they have at least slowed down UC Davis on offense in several recent meetings.

The recent meetings between these two have finished with 116 points, 128 points, 110 points, and then earlier this year it was 117 points. 

Cal Poly has been much better defensively at home, and they do host UC Davis in this one. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams met a couple weeks ago and the final score was 86-78. I'm not expecting that kind of shootout here, but I do think this total is set too low.

Loyola Maryland and Holy Cross are the two worst teams in terms of defensive efficiency this season. Holy Cross is 361st in the nation (out of 362 teams) in defensive efficiency overall. These are two really bad defenses. A total set this low is usually for a game with at least one very good defense. 

Holy Cross has sped up their tempo. They are up to third in the Patriot League in overall pace. 

Loyola's biggest offensive problem is turnovers, but Holy Cross very rarely forces turnovers.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Evansville Purple Aces got back their star offensive player Ben Humrichous back in the lineup after an extended absence. He came back last game, and the offense immediately looked much better. They won 77-60 against UIC. 

Evansville beat Valparaiso 78-75 in the first meeting between these two. These are two of the faster paced teams in the MVC. 

Valpo has been struggling badly defensively of late, but their offense is making strides. Valpo has allowed at least 75 points in five straight games. They have put up 69 points or more in all five of those games as well though. 

Earlier this year with Humrichous playing, Evansville won 91-89 over N Iowa and they scored 78 at Missouri State in a fast paced game.

I think the pace will be pretty quick here, and both teams haven't been very good at getting defensive rebounds or defending without fouling in the conference.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Longhorns defense has not impressed me this season. Texas is second to last in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. They have already given up 84 points to BYU, 78 against Texas Tech, and even 77 against a bad UCF offense. The Longhorns have given up a bunch of second chance points of late.

TCU is known for quick steals and scores in transition. Texas isn't taking care of the ball very well, and they don't get back in transition well at all. 

In Disu and Mitchell, Texas has a couple very good frontcourt players. TCU hasn't protected the paint well this year, and I think that could be a problem here.

This spread is set a fouling range of 4-5 points. Both teams shoot it well from the line too.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UC Irvine Anteaters still have the best defense in the Big West, and it isn't even close. They are allowing just 0.899 points per possession in the Big West. The Anteaters are 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. UC Irvine has a defensive minded coach in Russell Turner. 

Cal Poly is very weak on offense. The Mustangs are 349th in the country in offensive efficiency. They take far too many contest jump shots, and they aren't getting many second chances on offenses.

UC Irvine's offense has struggled a lot with Cal Poly's defense the last few years. Cal Poly has been far better on defense at home than on the road. Interestingly, UC Irvine has been much better on defense on the road. UC Irvine is giving up just 0.845 points per possession on the road in conference play.

The under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Western Illinois Leathernecks have been excellent on defense all season. Chad Boudreau has done a tremendous job in his first year with this team. He made it a priority to fix their defensive woes, and they have done just that in year one. It has helped a lot to have an elite shot blocker on the inside. Drew Cisse is a game changer with his length and athleticism for Western Illinois.

Lindenwood has played to the pace of their opponent throughout the season. They played a slow paced game at Western Illinois (W Illinois won 68-57). The pace should once again stay in the 62 or 63 range for this one. 

Lindenwood is 352nd in offensive efficiency in the country. Western Illinois is weak on offense too. The Leathernecks are 302nd in offensive efficiency in the country.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vermont Catamounts have played 19 games against Division One opponents. All 19 of their games have stayed under this total. Vermont has been great on defense this year, and they do a really good job controlling the pace. Vermont doesn't foul much at all, and opponents don't get many second chance points on them. They are top 25 in the country in both of these stats.

Albany is a high scoring team that plays quickly. The Great Danes rely heavily on forcing turnovers and getting out in transition. Vermont is only turning the ball over on 11.7% of their offensive possessions in the conference. The Catamounts are very good in transition defense. They aren't going for offensive rebounds, they are getting back on defense. 

Vermont is a big favorite here, and I think they get the tempo they want. They just slowed down a very fast paced Bryant team last game. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Loyola Maryland Greyhounds aren't good, but their offense has gotten better and better through the season. They are first in the Patriot League in shot selection. Loyola's biggest problem on offense is turnovers, but Bucknell doesn't force many turnovers at all. Loyola has shot 37.4% from the 3 point line in conference play.

Bucknell is torching the nets shooting 39.2% from 3 point range in conference action. Loyola is dead last in the league in 3 point defense allowing a ridiculous 41.1% from 3 point range in the conference. Bucknell has been getting some offensive rebounds and second chance points of late as well.

This total is set very low for a game played between two poor defenses. The tempo will be slow, but I still like the over.

Loyola has been far better on offense away from home this year, and their defense has been much worse on the road as well. Bucknell has been efficient on offense at home.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northwestern Wildcats defense has been very weak this year. This was a defensive minded team last year, but they are far better on offense this year and much worse on defense. 

Northwestern is 13th out of 14 in the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage defense. They are dead last in fouls committed in the league. They are second to last in defensive rebounding percentage. That's particularly important here when they are up against Zach Edey and the Purdue offense that is first in free throws attempted and first in offensive rebounding percentage in the Big Ten.

Purdue is averaging a ridiculous 1.36 points per possession at home in conference play. Northwestern has allowed 1.1 points per possession or more in five of their last seven games.

Northwestern is first in turnover percentage on offense in the Big Ten. They take care of the ball and get some pretty good shots. They should be playing from behind which will keep the pace moving here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats have played some shutdown defense against better competition this year. In their games against Top 100 opponents, they have allowed just 0.924 points per possession. Kansas State is much better at home, and I think Oklahoma will have a hard time getting open looks here. 

McNair is a good shot blocker for Kansas State, and Oklahoma is unlikely to have as much success near the hoop as they normally do. Oklahoma has slowed their pace in the Big 12, and Kansas State has played much slower this year. 

Kansas State's offense is 10th in efficiency in the Big 12. They take too many contested mid range jumpers.

Both teams are much better on defense than they are on offense. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both the Timberwolves and the Thunder rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency for the season and for the last ten games. These two teams are winning with their defenses. 

Both of these teams are coming off ugly losses. Detroit beat OKC in a stunner on Sunday. Minnesota lost to the Spurs on Saturday. 

These teams are tied at the top of the Northwest Division. This games means a lot to both teams. In the NBA, the long term trends strongly suggest that more important games where both teams are highly motivated leads to more unders.

In the last five times these two teams have played each other- four of those games have stayed under the total. 

The intensity should be high here, and I like this one to stay under the total. 

*3 Star play Under* The San Francisco 49ers have a very good offense. The Detroit Lions offense is good as well. I still think this total is set a little too high.

The 49ers will have Deebo Samuel in this game, but he isn't 100 percent. He's a game changer and him at less than 100 percent is a clear negative. The Lions defense has been top five in stopping the run all season. The 49ers run at the third highest rate of any team in the NFL. Hutchinson and the Lions defensive line should be able to get in the backfield some when the 49ers pass it as well.

The 49ers defense is really good. Jared Goff is a good quarterback, but his inconsistency away from home makes me wonder how good he can be in this spot. The 49ers are third in the NFL in points allowed. San Francisco's offense often gets talked about far more, but the defense has been fantastic consistently this season. 

A total in the low 50's with teams who don't play that fast and with so much on the line- I think it is a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The East Carolina Pirates have really changed the way they play a lot in recent weeks. East Carolina is 12th out of 14 teams in the American Athletic Conference in tempo. They are third in defensive efficiency in the conference. East Carolina started the season poorly on defense, but defensive minded Coach Mike Schwartz has helped turn this team around.

Temple has played to the pace of their opponent through the season. Temple is also dead last in the league in offensive efficiency. They were held to just 62 points in a very slow paced game against E Carolina a few weeks ago. 

Though this is a league where there are often a lot of fouls called, these two teams are last and second to last in FTA/FGA. I think they will play at a slow pace here and unless the ref crew really wants to turn this into a ref show, I don't expect a ton of whistles.

The first game was 63 possessions with average or slightly above average shooting numbers. It only hit 135 points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Quinnipiac Bobcats are first in the MAAC in tempo. The Fairfield Stags are second in the MAAC in average possession length too, so they want to run whenever they can. The tempo in this game should be extremely quick. 

Quinnipiac's games in the league have averaged 73.1 possessions. With Fairfield being so quick, I think this game will play out even faster than that. The Bobcats have played three games in their last six that have played to a pace of 78 possessions or more. 

Fairfield is first in the MAAC in offensive efficiency. The Stags have excellent shooters all over the floor. The Stags defense is weak though, and they give up far too many offensive rebounds. Quinnipiac should get plenty of second chance points here. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen are excellent on the offensive glass. They also get to the free throw line a bunch. 

St. Louis is also very good at getting to the line. St. Louis is bottom 50 in the country in defensive efficiency this year. They have been giving up points in bunches even against teams who don't push the pace. UMass does play very quickly.

Both teams foul a lot and that should help the over quite a bit here.

The matchups last year flew over the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland Pilots aren't playing any defense of late. Portland has allowed 92 points or more in four of their last five games. They have allowed at least 85 points in each of their last five games. 

San Francisco has been playing great on offense. The Dons have a very good big guy in Mogbo, and they have shooters around him. The Dons are playing much quicker in conference action. They should put up a big number.

Portland has shot the ball better at home, and I think they'll play pretty quickly too especially once they are down on the scoreboard.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCF Knights were never very good offensively in the AAC. Now, they have had to step up in class to the Big 12. The offense has been the worst in the Big 12, and it hasn't been very close.

UCF is still playing great defense and forcing a lot of turnovers though. Cincinnati's offense is 11th in the Big 12, and the Bearcats lack a go to guy in the paint. 

Cincinnati has been excellent on defense, and they have been slowing their pace down of late.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The App State Mountaineers and James Madison Dukes have played three times total last year and earlier this year. Those 3 games finished with 133 points, 120, and 114 points. 

App State is 9th (out of 362 teams) in effective field goal percentage defense. James Madison is 39th. 

App State has done a solid job keeping the tempo under control when these two play, and the defenses are better than the offenses. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs are excellent when it comes to forcing turnovers and getting out in transition and scoring very quickly. The single biggest weakness of the ETSU defense is their transition defense. Samford should get a lot of quick looks in the open floor in this game.

East Tennessee State has been able to pile up the points on some occasions this year, and I think they can get to the free throw line here with Samford's aggressive full court pressure leading to quite a few fouls.

Samford will dictate the pace.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Victor Hart and Andre Curbelo are once again questionable for this game for Southern Miss. They are two of the three best scorers on the Southern Miss. They have missed multiple games in a row with injuries. If they play they may be limited. 

Southern Miss isn't likely to want to play Marshall's fast paced game here. Marshall is fast paced, but their offense isn't very efficient. In fact, their defense is quite a bit better than their offense this season. 

I had this one at 145.5. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles are the best team in the OVC. This league isn't nearly as good as it was a few years ago after both Belmont and Murray State left the league.

Morehead State plays their style of basketball. They slow the game down and win with defense and tenacity. Western Illinois under first year Coach Chad Boudreau has played a similar style. 

Western Illinois and Morehead State both play the drop style defense and both of them have an excellent shot blocker in the interior. I think both teams will have a hard time finding open looks in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces have been inept on offense without leading scorer Ben Humrichous. He is questionable to play here. If he does play, he is likely to be at far less than 100% due to his knee injury. Evansville is easily last in the MVC in offensive efficiency.

Illinois State has done a good job on defense this year, and the RedBirds are consistent in slowing the pace of the game down. I think they are the better team here, and I expect them to turn this into a halfcourt game.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Poly Mustangs are 349th in the nation in offensive efficiency. Cal Poly is averaging just 0.901 points per possession in the Big West Conference. Cal Poly shoots it poorly and doesn't get to the line much or get offensive rebounds. Cal Poly is 335th in average possession length on offense, so they are definitely trying to slow the pace down drastically.

Cal State Fullerton is the better team here, but they are also poor on offense and play slowly. The Titans are 322nd in average possession length. They are 280th in offensive efficiency in the country. Fullerton also has an above average defense. Their weakness is fouling too much, but Cal Poly isn't a team that gets to the line much at all normally.

A slow pace here and I think this should be a sloppy game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles are first in the Big Sky in average possession length (quickest pace). Northern Colorado is second. This should be a track meet. 

Northern Colorado hasn't had a game with a final combined score of anything lower than 151 points in their last eight games. Six of the eight games have finished with 162 points or more. Now, they take on an Eastern Washington team that is 7th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. Eastern Washington puts up a ton of 3 point shots, and Northern Colorado is 352nd in the nation in 3 point defense. 

Northern Colorado is averaging 1.231 point per possession in the Big Sky Conference. They have a very underrated big guy in Wisne. 

Eastern Washington is averaging 85.7 points per game in their last seven games. Northern Colorado is averaging 88.7 points per game in their last seven games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The North Texas Mean Green have slowed their tempo down to a crawl in conference play. North Texas is taking an astounding 22.4 seconds of the 30 shot clock on average to put up a shot. No one else in the country is playing even as close to that slowly in conference play. The Mean Green are also 5th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. That has led to them giving up 62, 56, 51, 59, and 56 points in their five AAC contests.

SMU has played to the pace of their opponent this year. They played very slow games against Charlotte and Dayton. The Mustangs are second in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. Importantly, they are first in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage defense. North Texas takes a bunch of 3's and they should be tough looks in this game.

The pace should be extremely slow here (likely in the 50's) and I like this one to stay under the total.

*4 Star Play Over* The San Jose State Spartans have turned into a great over team this year. San Jose State has scored 1.10 points per possession or higher in seven of their last eight games. The Spartans have also allowed at least 1.134 points per possession (very bad) in each of their last seven games. They don't play very fast, but they are playing clearly faster than they did last year.

New Mexico is pushing the pace to the extreme this year with House leading the way at point guard. The Lobos are 5th in the nation in tempo. They'll push the pace again in this one. They have only had two games with a pace of under 70 the entire season. New Mexico is being very aggressive taking the ball to the basket, and San Jose State doesn't defend the paint well. 

San Jose State shoots it well from three point range, and of late New Mexico has been having some issues with giving up a lot of open shots from long range. That should catch up to them at some point.

A fast pace and solid efficiency.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have been playing shorthanded of late. Both Victor Hart (knee injury) and Andre Curbelo (concussion) have missed the last three games for them. Both of those guys are considered game time decisions for this game as well. If one or both play, they will likely be limited at least a bit too. These are two of the top four scorers on the team. Without these two Southern Miss has scored 56, 69, and 66 points in the three contests. 

Coastal Carolina ranks dead last in offensive efficiency in the Sun Belt. The Chanticleers should have trouble here against a good Southern Miss defense. Southern Miss defends inside the 3 point line very well, and Coastal Carolina has been very poor from long range this season. 

Even if the pace is relatively quick, I don't the efficiency stats will be very good here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Richmond Spiders have been the best defense in the Atlantic 10 so far this year. Richmond is consistently holding opponents to one shot. The Spiders are excellent at defending without fouling. They are 21st in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. 

Richmond slows the pace down too. The Spiders are 266th in the nation in tempo. In their last eight games, Richmond hasn't had a game higher than 147 points. Only one game in that span has topped 138 points. 

George Washington has slowed their pace some in the conference action. They are using about 1.4 seconds per possession more (a fairly big difference). The Colonials rely pretty heavily on both shooting it well from 3 and getting to the line and Richmond is great at defending the three and they don't foul much at all. George Washington is often taken advantage of because of their poor defensive rebounding, but Richmond is bottom ten in the country in offensive rebounding percentage.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Golden Gophers have been good offensively this year. They are 35th in the nation in effective field goal percentage offense. Shot Quality rates them 16th best in the country in shot selection on the season. They are second in Big Ten conference play in shot selection. Minnesota has a star in Dawson Garcia. Garcia can do work in the paint where the Wisconsin Badgers have no shot blockers. Wisconsin is 333rd in the country in near proximity defense.

The Wisconsin Badgers offense has been a well oiled machine this season. Wisconsin is 5th in the nation in offensive efficiency. The Badgers are balanced and can score from many different places. This Wisconsin team is far different than any Badgers team we have seen in recent memory. They are much better on offense than defense. They have scored 83 points or more in three of their last five games. 

I think both teams can be efficient on offense in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been a great over team at home throughout the course of the season. Detroit's Jared Goff has some tremendous weapons around him. St. Brown is one of the most underrated wide receivers in the NFL. LaPorta is trying to work back from an injury. If he plays it is a nice bonus. The Lions likely try to throw it quite a bit here, which I think helps the over.

Baker Mayfield has been good in this Tampa Bay offense. Mike Evans is a big play receiver, and the Lions will have trouble defending him. Detroit's defense was fortunate to not give up more points last week. I'm not convinced they will always be able to bend without breaking in the red zone. 

Overs in the playoffs in dome games have cashed at a 64.7% clip in the NFL in the past 15 years. The fast track should be great for these offenses.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense has been very weak this year, and on the road they have been particularly bad. They are averaging less than 0.88 points per possession on the road. 

New Mexico State prefers to play at a slow pace. They have struggled with fouls at times, but I think a couple things will help them here. First, MTSU isn't good at getting to the line and when they do they are dead last in FT shooting percentage on the road in the entire country. Second, NM State has committed far fewer fouls per game when playing at home.

The MTSU defense is pretty good, and New Mexico State lacks elite scorers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bellarmine was 104th in effective FG percentage offense last year. They are 287th so far this year. The Knights have had a lot of injuries, and they are still playing shorthanded. Bellarmine doesn't have the offensive talent they have had in recent seasons. They are playing at the 329th pace of play in the country (very slow). 

Eastern Kentucky is playing two seconds per possession slower in conference play than they did a year ago. They are pressing full court far less than they did a year ago. Eastern Kentucky is first in the league in defensive efficiency. I think they'll make it tough on Bellarmine's offense here.

Last year's games finished 143 and 136 points total with very slow paces of 61 and 59 possessions. Both teams are worse offensively this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Evansville Purple Aces have a key offensive piece back in the fold now that Ben Humrichous is back from injury. He has the highest offensive rating on the team. Evansville is the second fastest paced team in the MVC. They should be pushing the pace quite a bit here as they play from behind.

Drake is excellent offensively, and they have a history of tearing up this Evansville defense. They put up 96 points on Evansville last year. This Evansville team is dead last in the MVC in defensive efficiency. I don't think they'll have answers for Devries and company in this game either.

Evansville has allowed 86 points or more in three of their last four road games. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers defense has been fantastic all season. Appalachian State are 10th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 36th in defensive efficiency. It's no fluke either- they are 22nd in shot selection allowed this year. They are contesting shots very well.

Appalachian State is 248th in the nation in tempo too, and they have been playing quite a few low scoring games.

Coastal Carolina has slowed down their tempo since the coaching change in the middle of the season. The Chanticleers are no longer looking to push the tempo to the extreme. The Chanticleers offense is one of the worst in the Sun Belt. They are averaging just 0.954 points per possession.

These two teams met recently and App State wont 70-45. I think Coastal struggles to score again here. I had this total in the 130's.

Take the under.  

*3 Star Play Under* I've been really impressed by the job Chad Boudreau has done in his first year as coach at Western Illinois. Boudreau has this Western Illinois team controlling the pace of the game (playing slowly) and they are playing some excellent defense. They have the big Drew Cisse on the inside blocking shots and keeping opponents out of the lane. On offense, they are just 292nd in offensive efficiency.

Tennessee State has played to the pace of their opponent this year. The Tigers rely heavily on getting to the foul line to score, and Western Illinois has been great at defending without fouling. The Tigers do force quite a few turnovers, so I expect to see wasted possessions at times from Western Illinois.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* These teams are number one and number two in the Atlantic 10 in tempo. The pace should absolutely be there in this one.

Fordham is bottom 15 in the country in fouls committed. Their games have gotten extremely foul heavy late in the games. Loyola just got 31 FT attempts against UMass last game. The Ramblers have an advantage from 3 here, and they should get some second chance points against a Fordham weak interior rebounding unit.

Fordham is great at forcing turnovers and turning those into quick points. That's an area where Loyola has struggled throughout the season. The Rams are top 40 in the nation in getting to the line themselves.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks have had some wild results in their home games this year. Their home games have been much higher scoring than their road contests;. The biggest reason for this is the free throw rate. Omaha has a FTA/FGA at home of an incredible 60.2. 

The thing that makes this such an interesting matchup is UMKC is constantly a team that gets in foul trouble. They committed the most fouls in the Summit League last year. UMKC is likely to send Omaha to the line a lot here.

UMKC has an improved offense this year compared to a year ago. Omaha is still very weak on offense. 

The Summit League has been great to over bettors in the long haul.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Francisco offense has been on fire of late. San Francisco started the season playing slowly and winning a bunch of lower scoring games with their defense. The Dons have scored 91 points or more in four of their last seven games. They have picked up their pace in a big way during that time. 

Loyola Marymount is playing only their second true road game of the year. The Lions are first in the WCC in FTA/FGA in conference play. San Francisco's weakness on defense is fouling too much. Loyola should be able to get to the line and they shoot 73.2% from the stripe.

Recent weighting makes this number too low based on the San Francisco offensive success of late.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Morehead State Eagles are very good at controlling the pace of the game. While UT Martin wants to run, they have been slowed down by a few teams this year. The past head to head matchups between these two teams tell a story too.

With the current coaching staff at UT Martin (Head Coach Ridder)- the four matchups have gone like this- 138 points, 128 points, 121 points, and 130 points. None of those games have come close to this posted total.

Morehead State is 343rd in the country in average possession length on offense. With the better team playing at that pace it takes some very good shooting to get to this high of a number.

UT Martin isn't great defensively, but they do well defending without fouling and they get defensive rebounds at a high rate too.

Morehead State is the best defense in the OVC.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons have shot the ball well of late, but at its core this Drexel team is all about their defense. Drexel is 17th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. The Dragons are great at contesting jump shots.

Monmouth has improved quite a bit this year, and it has been largely thanks to their defense playing much better. They have a couple good shot blockers down low. Monmouth has consistently played to the pace of their opponent. Drexel is one of the slowest teams in the conference. 

Drexel held Monmouth to 35 points in their game at home against them last year. I'm certainly not predicting that to happen here, but I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Bucknell Bison have picked up their pace some of late. Bucknell is also third in the Patriot League in offensive efficiency. This Bucknell has been shooting it well from three point range and the free throw line. 

Boston University has faced a lot of good defenses this year, and they have faced a terrible slate of opposing offenses. The Terriers has faced the absolute slowest paced teams in the league thus far. They are a relatively slow paced team, but they play to the pace of the opponent quite a bit. Bucknell is terrible at defending the three point line, and Boston puts up a lot of shots from long range.

I weight recent pace and efficiencies quite heavily this time of the year. If you look at recent outcomes, this total is set too low.  

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks have been much better on defense this year. They rank 22nd in the country in shot selection allowed. South Carolina was 290th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 61st so far this season. 

South Carolina is 343rd in the nation in tempo. The Gamecocks rely heavily on putting up a bunch of three point jumpers. Georgia is 30th in the country in three point field goal defense. They have a lot of length that should bother South Carolina's offense.

The Georgia offense has played pretty fast, but they have played a lot of fast paced opponents. This game should be different. Georgia isn't efficient on offense either.

South Carolina is using 20.5 seconds on average per possession in the SEC (very slow). The Gamecocks should control the tempo here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones are number two in the nation in defensive efficiency. Iowa State is allowing less than 0.9 points per possession. The Cyclones played somewhat quick in the non-conference, but they did this last year before slowing down a lot in conference play. They have done the same thing so far this season too. They are playing 2.5 seconds per possession slower in their Big 12 games.

BYU's defense is much improved from last year. BYU was 52nd in the country in defensive efficiency last year. They are up to number 7 so far this year. BYU is pretty quick at 124th quickest in tempo in the country, but they very rarely get to the free throw line and their offense hasn't been as efficient as their defense.

This total has been bumped up several points. I will side with the under with two top ten defensive teams in the country.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Even in today's NBA, this is a very high total. The Indiana Pacers are without star Tyrese Haliburton and they haven't looked like the same team without him. With Haliburton, the Pacers are first in the NBA in offensive efficiency on the season. In the last three games without him, they have been a bottom ten team in the NBA in efficiency on offense. 

The Pacers have also played a bit slower without their floor general leading the way. The Pacers backups have been solid on defense.

The Utah Jazz have shot the ball extremely well their last couple games. This is an average team offensively for the year, and regression is likely coming for them.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Merrimack is the dominant defensive team in the NEC. Merrimack's unique zone defense really bothers teams in this league. The Warriors are extremely well coached. They play a full court zone press that is designed to slow the game down and create tough passes for their opponent. 

Central Connecticut State has played pretty well on offense of late, but they have been playing bottom feeders in this league. This is a much tougher test. 

Merrimack's offense is still a big weakness. The Warriors are 325th in the nation in offensive effficiency.

These two teams have played 8 times since Merrimack joined the NEC. All 8 games have finished with 127 points or fewer scored. 

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The George Washington Revolutionaries are shooting 47% from 3 point range in Atlantic 10 play thus far. George Washington is just 350th in the country in Open 3 rate, so they have been knocking down some very tough jumpers. I think they will regress from three point range. 

George Mason is 42nd in effective field goal percentage defense in the country. They are one of the better defenses in the league. George Mason has done a great job controlling the pace. They slowed down a very fast paced Tulane team to just 69 possessions. They slowed down Cornell to 69 possessions. 

George Mason has played the 138th toughest slate of opposing offenses this year. George Washington has played a very easy schedule and this is absolutely one of the best defenses they have taken on.

This total is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Murray State Racers played a very tough slate of defenses in the non-conference portion of their schedule. Murray State has played the 61st toughest slate of defenses on the season thus far. 

Murray State has been elite offensively in MVC play thus far. In their five games in the conference, Murray State is averaging 78.8 points per game in conference play. The Racers do a great job taking care of the basketball. They also take high quality shots. 

Northern Iowa is 297th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They are a solid 67th in effective field goal percentage offense. The Panthers shoot the ball well from long range and Murray State has struggled defending long jumpers.

I think the efficiency numbers will be pretty solid here. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* I see the Kansas City Chiefs as a straight under team in their current form. Kansas City's offense has no longer been explosive at all. The wide receivers are just too big of a liability. Travis Kelce is still good, but he isn't quite as good as he was a few years ago. 

Miami's offense was amazing against the weaker teams this year, but they weren't consistently great against good defenses. The Chiefs defense is very solid.

The first matchup between these two in Germany was 21-14. This game will be played outdoors in some brutal weather conditions. A temperature of around zero degrees during the game with wind chills dropping to 20 or 25 degrees below zero. The key is the wind. In these conditions I think the play calling will be a bit more conservative. 

The Chiefs have played five straight games under this number. Three of Miami's last four games have stayed under this total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Eastern Washington Eagles are a really good Big Sky team. Eastern Washington pushes the pace in a big way. They are first in the league in average possession length (quickest). Eastern Washington has scored 87 points or more in four straight games. It won't surprise me if they get in the mid to upper 80's again here.

Idaho is 316th in the country in defensive efficiency. They are allowing opponents to shoot 37.8% from 3 point range. Eastern Washington is loaded with amazing long range shooters. The Eagles should get a lot of easy looks here. Idaho has played a bunch of really weak opposing offenses this year, but that won't be the case in this one. 

Eastern Washington's defense is 229th in the country in defensive efficiency. Idaho should get some open looks from three as well here.

I think Eastern Washington pushes pace and gets the lead and Idaho has to pick up their pace when they are down. Both teams foul far more than an average team too.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The George Mason Patriots and Richmond Spiders are very similar teams to what they were last year. In the two meetings between these teams last year the finals were 62-58 and 62-60. I think we will see a fairly similar game in this one.

George Mason has played the 140th toughest slate of opposing offenses. They have only played the 348th toughest slate of opposing defenses. George Mason lacks a go to scorer and this team can go through long scoring droughts. Defensively, they do a great job protecting the paint. 

Richmond is bottom ten in the country in both offensive rebounding and free throws attempted. This team is 20th in effective field goal percentage defense in the nation. 

Both teams are playing extremely slowly this year. George Mason is bottom 40 in tempo in the  country. Richmond is using more than 20 seconds per possession on offense in the league.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I have been really impressed by the Western Illinois Leathernecks and their defensive turnaround this year under first year head coach Chad Boudreau. He brought in a 6'11 shot blocker in Drew Cisse, and he changes the game in a big way with his shot blocking. Western Illinois is 85th in effective field goal percentage defense this year after being 312th last year. 

Eastern Illinois is a bad offensive team. They don't shoot the 3 ball well, and they try to get in the paint. It will be tough against Cisse and company here.

Western Illinois is bottom ten in the country in average possession length (very slow pace). Eastern Illinois always prefers to play slow under Coach Simmons.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The SMU Mustangs rank 226th in the nation in shot selection. They are putting up a lot of low percentage 3 pointers and mid range jumpers. SMU is playing some terrific defense though. The Mustangs are easily first in the AAC in defensive efficiency. SMU is 4th in the nation in three point defense and 3rd in the nation in two point FG percentage defense. 

East Carolina has shifted their tempo downward in a big way in conference play. East Carolina is dead last in tempo in the conference play thus far. The Pirates are slowly improving on defense and have a defensive minded coach in Schwartz. 

SMU held Charlotte to 54 points two games ago and Memphis to just 62 points last game. E Carolina has held three of their last five opponents to 62 points or fewer.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Lafayette Leopards just beat the Colgate Raiders in shocking fashion in their last game. Lafayette has employed the strategy of stalling as much as possible and winning low scoring contests. They aren't very good, but they have won three straight games to start Patriot League play. Lafayette is 307th in average possession length (very slow). 

Navy is slower than an average team, and this Navy team is banged up right now. They are likely to be without one or two key players in this game. Navy is a solid defensive team that defends the three ball very well.

The last four meetings between these two teams have been as follows-

69-55 (124) 

68-44 (112)

59-50 (109)

53-34 (87) 

The pace will be very slow here. It will take very good shooting to get over the number.

I'll take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have changed up the way they have been playing of late, and it has been working. Western Michigan started the season playing at a slow pace. Their offense was struggling and they shifted into a much faster pace. It has been a great move. 

Western Michigan is first in the MAC in tempo in conference play. The Broncos are a surprising 3-0 in the MAC. The Broncos have played six straight games that have finished with at least 159 combined points. They are great on the offensive glass, and Ohio is very weak on the defensive boards. 

Ohio is 280th in defensive efficiency in the country. The Bobcats have been terrible defensively away from home. This is still a pretty good offense though led by Hunter and Mitchell. 

The offenses have the upper hand here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both Orlando and Miami are in the bottom ten in tempo in their last five contests. Both Orlando and Miami are also in the bottom ten in the NBA in offensive efficiency in that time span.

This is a divisional contest where the two teams are fighting in the standings- right now they are even. 

Orlando is without Wagner, their leading scorer, in this contest. Jimmy Butler is expected to miss this game for the Heat too. Tyler Herro is doubtful as well. That is some serious scoring threats likely to be out for this one.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Poly Mustangs and UC Riverside Highlanders are two of the slowest paced teams in the Big West. There are several teams who really want to get out and run in this conference, and both of these teams have been busy playing those teams quite a bit of late. I think that has the tempo number skewed in this one. 

These two teams are both bottom 50 in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage. Both teams take a lot of mid range and long range jumpers. They don't get to the free throw line very often at all.

The two defenses are mediocre, but I think that is good enough here. They are solid on the defensive glass, and second chance points should be few in this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Abilene Christian Wildcats have been absolutely flying tempo-wise in their last few games. Abilene has played seven straight games to a pace of 76 possessions or quicker. That's an extremely quick pace. 

Grand Canyon is a much faster paced team this year than they were a year ago. The Antelopes are 88th in average possession length. I expect them to be happy to play in transition here.

Grand Canyon's frontcourt should be far too much for the very small Abilene frontcourt. Abilene has no shot blockers and Grand Canyon will get good looks inside and second chances.

Abilene Christian will use full court pressure and attack the hoop and get to the line. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Valparaiso Beacons are 218th in the nation in tempo. They toyed with pushing the pace quite a bit early in the season, but it wasn't working well at all. Valpo has clearly slowed down of late. They are 343rd out of 362 teams in the country in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Valparaiso has improved some on defense this year. They are defending well without fouling and forcing some turnovers.

Southern Illinois has year after year been one of the very slowest paced teams in the MVC. They are using more than 20 seconds on an average possession in the league. The Salukis are second in 3 point FG percentage defense on the year. Their defense should do a good job shutting down Valpo in this one.

This number has been bumped up enough that I have to play it.

Take the under.