*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Heat and Washington Wizards just met on Wednesday night. The final in that one was 103-100. There were 98 possessions in that game.

The total here has been bet up through the day. It has gotten to a point where I have to take the under. 

If we assume there will be 99 possessions (1 faster than Wednesday) even if the teams average 1.15 points per possession (very good shooting) this would be under the total.

One of the best under referees is the lead ref in this game. Brian Forte's games are 55% to the under in his career.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Western Illinois has allowed 83 points or more in five of their last six games. Omaha has allowed 86 points or more in four of their last six games. The Summit League is a really poor defensive conference, and these are probably the two worst defenses in the league. 

Nebraska Omaha ranks second in overall tempo in league play. Western Illinois ranks third. There should be a very quick pace to this game.

Both of these teams have showed time and time again if they are down late they are willing to foul seemingly endlessly to keep the game going. A foul fest late is a real possibility.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is a very low total, but it is very low for good reason. Charlotte has seen 6 of its 16 games go under this very low total. Two of those games went under this total despite overtime. 

On Friday (the first day of the back to backs in the CUSA schedule), the Charlotte games in the last three weeks have been at 98, 100, and 98 points at the end of regulation. Charlotte is an elite defensive team that struggles a lot on offense. They play at the slowest pace in CUSA.

MTSU is very inefficient on offense. They turn the ball over too much and take too many long two point jumpers that are simply bad shots.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans and Georgia Southern Eagles met twice earlier this year. Those two games were 118 points and 119 points in regulation. There wasn't anything fluky about those games either. Troy's offense is a mess and they turn the ball over far too much. 

Georgia Southern is one of the worst shooting teams in the country. Scott Cross will use some zone defense here as many have successfully against Georgia Southern. Four of Georgia Southern's last six games have been 119 points or lower at the end of regulation. They have been a great under team.

This number has gotten too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* We have the perfect combination here for a really high scoring game. Long Island is playing at the single fastest pace of any team in the NEC in league play. Derek Kellogg's team ranks eighth in the country in overall tempo this year. 

Fairleigh Dickinson ranks as the best offense in terms of efficiency in the NEC. They also rank as the worst defense in the NEC in terms of efficiency.

Fairleigh Dickinson has had four straight games finish at 160 points or higher. The last meeting between these two last year was 86-81 and that game was played to a blistering pace of 80 possessions.

Look for this one to be up and down throughout.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first game between these two teams played to a pace of 69 possessions, but it only finished at 117 points. The two teams combined to shoot 7/34 from 3 point range. They averaged only 0.88 and 0.81 points per possession in that game.

Morehead State has a good defense. It is probably the best in the OVC. Still, the Eagles are due for some negative regression. They are only giving up 0.862 points per possession in the league. They have faced a lot of the worst offenses in the league while they haven't played Belmont or Austin Peay yet this year. 

Murray State is second in the OVC in offensive efficiency. They have scored 71 points or more in four straight contests. 

Morehead State has scored 74 points or more in four straight games. The Eagles offense has improved a great deal during the year.

This total is set too low based on the score the first time they met.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes defensive statistics look very good on paper. They are a pretty good defense, but they padded their stats against some very weak offenses early this year. Tulsa has been having major problems on the defensive glass of late, and that has led to opponents getting to the line a bunch. Opponents are only shooting 63.1% from the FT line against Tulsa. That has to improve over the rest of the year. We know there is no such thing as "free throw defense." 

The SMU Mustangs rank second in the AAC in offensive efficiency. SMU shoots 73.7% from the line, and they have good balance in scoring from the inside and outside. SMU is pushing the tempo much more than they were a year ago as well.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* VCU is first in the A 10 in tempo. The Rams are using the full court pressure and being very aggressive on defense. In the first meeting between these two, VCU forced 19 turnovers from Rhode Island. They do a great job turning those turnovers into quick points, and Rhode Island has been bad in transition defense this year. 

Rhode Island excels at getting to the line, and they should once again be at the line a bunch against a VCU team that fouls a lot because of their full court pressure. They shot 30 free throws in the first meeting between these two teams.

The pace in that first meeting was 76 possessions. I think we see a pace into the 70's again here and that makes this total very low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Butler Bulldogs have been a great under team this year. Butler has seen 8 of their last 9 games go below this posted total in regulation. There are a few things that make Butler a very good under team. First, this team uses 20 seconds per possession on average. They rank as the best defensive rebounding team in the Big East. They also don't get to the line much or commit many fouls. 

Marquette is playing a whole different style without Howard this year. The Golden Eagles are 65th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They were 14th last year. They don't get to the line nearly as much as they did last year. They also foul less than they did a year ago. Marquette has seen four of their last seven games stay under this total in regulation. They are now playing the best under team in the conference.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces are using a whopping 22.0 seconds of the shot clock on average before taking a shot in MVC play. That is the single slowest pace of any team in the country in league play. Evansville will turn this game into a very slow paced battle.

In the past, Valparaiso would be a team that would be expected to try to push the pace. That isn't the case now though. The Crusaders have slowed down more than a second per possession in league play. Their offense has struggled badly this year. They are 314th in effective field goal percentage offense. 

Look for a tight low scoring battle here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard back. They were excellent in their blowout win over Orlando. Their defense was tremendous in that game.

The New York Knicks are the slowest paced team in the NBA, and it isn't even close. New York is averaging 94.70 possessions per game in their last 10 contests. The second slowest in the NBA is the Denver Nuggets, but they are averaging 97.21 possessions per game.

The Clippers rank 5th in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last ten games. The Knicks rank sixth in that same statistic. 

The Knicks are better coached this year and they have been competitive. In 10 of the Knicks last 13 games, the total has stayed under this number.

This is an early Sunday game and Sunday has easily been the best day for unders in the NBA in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs have picked up their pace drastically in recent games. It has worked out well for them. San Diego State struggled through tight low scoring games against Nevada and Utah State. They have clearly made an effort to use their full court pressure and score in transition in their last few games.

Wyoming couldn't handle the pressure well at all on Thursday night. The Cowboys turned the ball over 16 times in that game. They also shot 10/40 from 3 point range. This is a team that shoots the 3 at a 36% clip for the year. 

Wyoming has one of the worst defenses in the Mountain West. They have allowed 81 points or more in five of their last eight games. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers were flying up and down the floor at the beginning of the season. As the season has moved along, they have gradually slowed their tempo. They clearly are playing slower against conference opponents. 

Minnesota's offense isn't as efficient this year. Marcus Carr is having to try to do too much. The Golden Gophers go against a solid Purdue defense in this one. I don't think they'll be very efficient.

Sasha Stefanovic is out for this game again due to COVID protocols. He is easily the Boilermakers best shooter and he can really stretch a defense. This is a team that already goes through offensive droughts even with him. 

I like this one to stay below this total in a hard fought Big Ten matchup.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We cashed with the under in this game on Thursday night, and I have to go back to the under here. That was one of the ugliest games I've ever seen. New Mexico's offense is just brutal. They have no identity at all. The Lobos stand around and end up with bad shots nearly every possession.

Fresno State has very little inside game, and they are happy to slow the game down and make it a grinder. In the past, New Mexico has been all about playing the fast paced games. They can't do that anymore because they just don't have enough offense.

It was 19-19 at halftime on Thursday. The game was 106 after regulation. This one should be low as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Oakland and Fort Wayne stayed under the total by quite a bit last night, and that has discounted this line a bit too much. Both teams shot the ball poorly from inside the arc. They also didn't shoot very many free throws compared to what I would expect.

Fort Wayne should put in a better effort on offense here. A closer game should mean a chance for a foul fest late or possibly even an overtime.

I had this one lined at 158.5

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons play at an extremely slow pace. They aren't a good defense, but San Jose State is a very inefficient offense as well. San Jose State is without leading scorer Richard Washington due to an injury. 

These two teams just played on Thursday night. Air Force was able to dictate the pace. It was played to only 61 possessions. The game finished 59-58. I assume this will be played faster than that game. Still, if we assume there will be about 65 possessions (what I project this at), both teams could shoot the ball far better than their season averages and this game would still fall short of the posted total.

I don't think a big enough adjustment was made here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Butler has consistently had very low scoring games all season. The Bulldogs play at the slowest pace in the Big East. They are much worse on offense this year, but they are much better on defense.

Butler's last eight games have all had 132 points or less scored in regulation. That includes games against St. John's, Georgetown, and Creighton. 

Xavier has been on a COVID pause. It wouldn't be a surprise if they don't look as crisp on offense as they did right before their break. This is a team that relies heavily on jump shooting.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Louisiana isn't the same team they were in past years. They do still try to push the tempo, but they have one of the better shot blockers in the country in Theo Akwuba down low. Texas State isn't a very tall team, and I don't think they'll have a lot of success in the paint here.

On the other side, Louisiana isn't efficient at all on offense. Texas State is arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt. Texas State also slows the pace of the game down in a big way. They have slowed the last two meetings between these two teams down to 65 and 64 possessions. Those games both stayed easily under this total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders are absolutely flying up and down the court this year. Wright State's tempo makes a total set at this average number seem very doable. 

Wright State has scored 85 points or more in 9 of their last 13 games. The Raiders can score from the inside or outside. 

Robert Morris has had defensive problems with teams with good big men this year, and Wright State certainly has that in Love. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Dixie State ranks 16th in the nation in fastest pace of play on the offensive end. Cal Baptist ranks 45th in the nation in that same statistic. This should be an up and down game the whole way. 

Dixie State is shooting 21.9% from 3 point range in conference play. That isn't likely to continue. Even a poor shooting team makes more than this in the long run. Expect positive regression there. 

Both of these teams have been really bad on the defensive glass. I expect a lot of quick second chance points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Stetson Hatters are a team that wants to slow the pace down. Florida Gulf Coast typically plays to the pace of their opponents. 

Last year, these two teams played two very low scoring contests. I expect another here. 

Both of these teams shoot a lot of shots from long range so if they are on fire this total will likely lose. However, these teams aren't very efficient on average on the offensive end.

Neither team gets to the line much and neither team is good at getting second chance points.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Mexico Lobos aren't even close to the same team they were last year. This is a team that is offensively challenged in the biggest way this year. They are no longer running either. They can't try to win high scoring games. They have to slow things down and try to win low scoring battles.

Fresno State is playing very slow this year and they should be happy to try to slow things down and win with their defense.

This number is more than six points off my projection. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Weber State ranked 246th in offensive pace of play last year. They are 36th so far this year. Idaho ranks 346th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

The Big Sky is noted as a conference that has been great to over bettors in the past decade. This is a conference where few teams are any good on defense.

Weber State is very likely to get ahead here, which should cause Idaho to need to play faster as well.

Both of these teams foul far more than the average team in the country. Both teams are far above average from the free throw line (73% and 75%). 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Brooklyn Nets have actually slowed their pace of play with Harden, Irving, and Durant on the floor together. Harden dribbles it a lot and uses up the clock more than most people realize.

Atlanta has also slowed their pace down and they have been better defensively of late.

For the season, these two teams are 5th and 12th in terms of tempo. In their last three games only, these two teams are 17th and 22nd in tempo. 

If they are going to play at an average pace or slower, this is an extremely high total. Sure, there is a chance all the shots are falling and it gets past this total. Still, with this referee crew skewing to the under and a slower pace I have to back the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* East Carolina had five guys out of their last game against Memphis due to COVID protocols. They are all questionable tonight, but on Sunday the team said it was unlikely all would return tonight. 

Memphis pushes the pace in a way that UCF won't. UCF prefers to play at an even slower tempo than East Carolina does. Memphis ran up the score by getting out in transition and they won 80-53 over an East Carolina team that had very little offensive firepower.

I don't think we'll see a pace even close to as fast in this game. Also, both of these teams are clearly better on defense than offense. 

UCF is the better team and they have been able to lock down several teams. East Carolina's defense is above average as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions averaged 0.825 points per possession in SWAC play last year. They are at 0.973 points per possession so far this year. With Doss healthy they are some better this year on offense, but I don't think they are this good. On the other side, they are allowing opponents in the SWAC to shoot 43.5% from 3 point range this year. This Pine Bluff team has ranked in the top 65 in the country in 3 point field goal defense in three of the last five years, and their 3 point defense should regress positively the rest of the year.

In the last three meetings between Prairie View and Pine Bluff the final totals have been 92 points, 121 points, and 130 points. 

Prairie View is worse offensively this year without Patterson and Williams from their very strong team last year.

The pace should be relatively slow here as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Sunday has been the single best day of the week to bet unders in the NBA in the past decade, and it isn't even close. Early unders have done very well in the long run. Western Conference early unders (5 pm eastern or earlier) are 6-2 to the under this season.

The Clippers should have a fairly easy time with the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Clippers put up a pretty big point total against OKC in their last game, but they did make 24/25 from the free throw line in that game.

The Thunder are certainly more limited without Al Horford. Also, the Thunder rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency in the last five games. 

For the season overall, the Clippers are 27th in the NBA in tempo. 

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers have been the single best team in the NFL when it comes to scripted plays in the first quarter on offense. The coaching staff has been putting this offense in great spots, and Aaron Rodgers and the offense have been great at executing especially early in the game. Tampa Bay has been poor on defense in the first quarter this year as well. I think Green Bay plays from ahead in this game.

Tampa Bay has been a bit conservative on offense early in games this year, but when they have been down their offense is at its best. They have gotten more aggressive in these spots and they have the best pass catching weapons in the NFL. Tom Brady and this Tampa Bay offense should be able to move the ball in this game against a mediocre Green Bay defense.

I see Tampa Bay's pass defense as a clear weakness. Drew Brees wasn't able to exploit that weakness. Aaron Rodgers should be able without too much trouble.

The Packers defense has been very quick to get into prevent defense and give up big plays to their opposition. If they do that in this game it could become a real shootout.

Did you know that non-divisional games with a temperature of 29 degrees or lower (average temperature during the game) have gone 71-31 in the last 102 contests. The cold weather without wind is not a negative for the over.

Look for plenty of points here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Last night's game between these two finished 65-60. The tempo was slow and both offenses struggled to get good looks.

Western Illinois appears to have decided to slow things down tempo wise. That is likely a good move since their offense is horrible. I would expect them to try to keep the game close again by slowing it down.

South Dakota has the best defense in the Summit League. Their games have consistently been lower. This is a league that scores a lot in general and I believe this total is inflated.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both Loyola Marymount and Santa Clara are far better on defense than they are on offense. The significant line move here on the total makes me like the under.

Santa Clara tries to get to the basket a lot, but Loyola does a good job defending the paint.

Loyola Marymount looks to get inside as well, but Santa Clara has multiple good shot blockers inside.

The pace of the game might be quick, but I don't think the teams will shoot it well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Duquesne Dukes are severely shorthanded now. Sincere Carry was their star player and leader on the offensive end. They have some guys who have stepped in and played solid defense, but no one is able to replace his scoring and facilitating of the offense.

St. Bonaventure is happy to slow the pace down, and their defense is one of the best in the Atlantic Ten. They held Duquesne to 48 points when they met just a couple games ago, and Duquesne should struggle to score again here.

St. Bonaventure has had poor efficiency numbers on offense on the road in recent seasons.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Nicholls State averaged using 17.2 seconds per possession last year in the Southland. They are using only 15.5 seconds per possession this year. That kind of big change in tempo can create value in the totals market especially on under the radar teams. 

Nicholls State has also improved their offensive efficiency some at the same time. 

New Orleans is playing slightly faster than they did a year ago as well. New Orleans' offense is rolling right now. They have scored a minimum of 86 points in each of their last three games. 

Nicholls State has scored 80 points or more in four of their last seven games.

The final game they met last year these two teams scored 160 points. I expect something close to that here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Northern Kentucky Norse won 81-76 yesterday against Robert Morris. 

Robert Morris plays a unique trapping defense that can bother quite a few teams. Northern Kentucky does turn it over quite a bit and that should lead to quick points for Robert Morris at times. On the other end though, Northern Kentucky got a lot of open looks near the hoop against this unique defense yesterday. Adrian Nelson has really come on of late for N Kentucky and I think he is a tough matchup for Robert Morris.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* I had the over here yesterday and lost. There were 75 possessions in that game and the two teams had the worst offensive efficiencies they have had this season. Both of these teams are better on offense than they are on defense. Now, we have a lower line and my projected number for this game is 148. 

Both teams should play fast again today. I would expect more trips to the line. If we see a tempo like they have played at, even average shooting gets this to 150 or so.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Utah Valley plays with quite a bit of tempo, and we know that St. John's plays almost as fast as anyone in the country. 

Utah Valley has really had issues taking care of the basketball this year. They rank in the bottom 50 in the nation in transition points allowed off opponents steals. St. John's should take full advantage of this weakness.

Utah Valley gets to the line at the 7th highest rate of any team in the country. St. John's is prone to fouling a lot because of their full court press.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Wisconsin is elite at controlling the tempo of the game. Ohio State prefers to play slowly, so I think they will be happy to allow Wisconsin to slow this game down as well.

Wisconsin's defense has been tremendous of late. The Badgers last six games have finished regulation with these point totals: 134, 130, 122, 131, 114, and 120 points. 

Ohio State ranks as the fifth most efficient offense in the nation right now. I think they slip in the weeks to come. They are without starting point guard C.J. Walker right now. That could be an issue in a game like this against a great defense.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds and Weber State Wildcats both play at a very fast pace. Weber State just beat Southern Utah 91-67 on Thursday night. 

Weber State is unlikely to score 91 points again here, but Southern Utah should score quite a bit more than 67 points. Southern Utah has only scored less than 81 points twice in their eight home games this year. 

Both of these teams rank in the top 16 in the nation in free throw shots attempted. I expect a bunch of fouling and trips to the free throw line here. 

These two teams have each seen a bunch of their games sail far past this posted total. They are more than capable of scoring even more than they did on Thursday night.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas Jayhawks and Oklahoma Sooners are thought of as offensive powerhouses, but these two defenses have been very good this year.

Oklahoma has slowed their pace down drastically compared to a year ago. The Sooners defense ranks first in the Big 12 in defending without fouling. Kansas is second in defending without fouling. 

These two teams are also second and third in the Big 12 in defensive rebounding. We shouldn't see very many second chance opportunities in this game.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* San Diego State is an elite defensive team. They also play at the second slowest pace in the Mountain West. Air Force plays at the slowest pace in the Mountain West.

Matt Mitchell is San Diego State's leading scorer at 15.3 ppg and he is expected to miss this game with an injury. 

Air Force is unlikely to be able to get much going on offense here, and I think San Diego State will be less efficient without their go to guy on offense as well.

This projects as a very slow paced game. My projected number on this game is much lower than this total.

Take the under. Top Rated play. 

*I would bet this for 5 stars down to 126.5 and for 4 stars at a lower level than that*

*3 Star Play Over* The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are clearly playing faster this season. Eran Ganot's team excels in the transition and CS Fullerton hasn't been good on transition defense. Also, Hawaii ranks top 20 in the nation in free throws attempted and CS Fullerton is consistently a team that fouls a bunch year after year. Fullerton also gives up a lot of open looks from three and Hawaii has some solid outside shooters.

The Fullerton Titans love to play at an extremely fast tempo. The tempo in this game should be quick enough that it will take some pretty bad shooting numbers to keep this one under.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* UT Arlington has sped up in a huge way this year. This is a team that ranked 11th in the Sun Belt in tempo two years ago. They ranked seventh in the Sun Belt in tempo last year. They rank first so far this year in tempo. Arlington is going to try to get out in transition and force some turnovers and get run out chances here.

Little Rock has seen two good defenses in their last four games (B2B games in the Sun Belt this year). They face a much weaker defense here.

Both of these teams make a habit of getting to the free throw line and that could be key here as I expect a close game.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors were a consistent under team last year. They didn't have a single game above 137 in regulation in league play last year. 

Fairleigh Dickinson and Merrimack met twice last year and after regulation the final totals were 110 and 114. 

These two teams played on Thursday night and the final total was 113 points. Now, we get a posted total of 141 points? 

Merrimack is playing somewhat quicker this year, so I do expect this game to be a bit higher scoring, but this is a big number. Merrimack is bad offensively. Fairleigh Dickinson is far worse on offense this year, and they have been bad against zone defenses in recent seasons. Merrimack's zone should continue to bother them.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Mount St. Mary's plays at the slowest pace of any team in the NEC. Central Connecticut State hasn't really been able to force Mt. St. Mary's to play at their faster pace in their recent meetings.

The second game in these back to back situations have trended to being slightly lower scoring. Mt. St. Mary's is still going to play very slowly. C Connecticut State is still a very inefficient team. Neither of these teams get to the line much at all, and both have struggled to get second chance points this year.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams played twice last year with the final totals being 137 and 138 points. They then played on Thursday and the final total was 134. Since Sacred Heart shot the ball poorly from 3 in Thursday's game I expect a few more points this time, but this number is too high.

St. Francis (PA) also shot the ball far better than normal. This is a team that was 1.11 points per possession in the league last year. They are averaging 0.95 points per possession this year. They just put up 1.17 points per possession on Thursday night. 

Sacred Heart has slowed the tempo down some this year, and St. Francis is far worse on offense and a little better on defense.

I think this total should be in the 138-139 range. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Niagara has been worse on offense this year than they were a year ago. I think they are due for some positive regression. This team has nearly the same guys as they did a year ago when they were amazing from the field. They are still atrocious on defense as they were a year ago.

Quinnipiac has sped up their pace some this year. They have been much better on defense this year, but I think they are going to regress negatively in a big way going forward. I don't buy that this team all at once went from a subpar defense to number 2 in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense. They have yet to face a decent offense. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Utah Thunderbirds and Weber State Wildcats both rank in the top 20 in the country in free throw shots attempted. Both of these teams also foul more than an average team. I would expect a bunch of trips to the line in this game. Both of these teams shoot the ball very well from the line on the season.

Southern Utah is playing a bit quicker of late. Simon is a coach who has talked about wanting his team to speed up their pace of play.

Weber State is 17th quickest in the country in average possession length on offense. The Wildcats defense has amazing numbers so far this season in the Big Sky, but I don't expect those lofty numbers to continue. They are an average defense at best. 

Both of these teams have played a bunch of offenses who are very weak. These two offenses are an upgrade. I see a lot of pace and plenty of free throws. This should be a close game too and a foul fest late or overtime are possibilities.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Morehead State has been a great under team so far this year. The Eagles are much better on the defensive end this season, and they have drastically slowed their tempo down. 

Morehead State now ranks in the bottom 25 teams in the country in terms of tempo. It has led to 7 of their 13 games against Division One opponents staying under this low total.

SE Missouri State and Morehead State just met on Saturday and the final was 64-50. 

SE Missouri State relies heavily on getting to the free throw line on offense to score. Morehead State isn't a team that fouls very much at all. SE Missouri State then is left taking a lot of tough 3's, and this team hasn't been good from deep this season. 

We saw only 63 possessions in the game when these two met on Saturday. Something similar here is what I expect.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Illinois State Redbirds rank second in possession length (second quickest) in the MVC so far this year. Bradley ranks first in that same metric. 

Bradley talked about speeding up in the preseason. They didn't play very fast in the non-conference games, but now that they are playing conference foes we are seeing a clear tick up in pace of play.

Illinois State might have the worst defense in the Missouri Valley Conference. They are allowing almost 1.13 points per possession on the season thus far. Bradley should be able to put up a good number here. 

Bradley's defense excels in the paint, but they are below average at defending the 3 point line. Illinois State puts up a bunch of 3 pointers and they should make their fair share.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Boise State is clearly a very good team. The Broncos have the ability to beat some very good teams with their balance on both sides of the ball. Still, their stats are a bit inflated so far this year because of the really weak schedule they have played. 

Boise State has played the 311th toughest (very weak) slate of defenses according to KenPom. The Broncos averaged 1.091 points per possession in the MWC two years ago. They averaged 1.056 points per possession last year. They are averaging a whopping 1.227 points per possession so far this year.

Fresno State will try to slow the pace of this game down. Fresno State is also weak on offense, and this is the best Boise State defensive team we have seen for a long time. Boise State is going to regress on offense (it might not be this game but it will happen) and this total has gotten high enough that I have to back the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* We have a meeting of two teams who shoot the 3 ball very well in this one. Furman is 48th in the country in 3 point percentage. VMI is 30th in the country in 3 point percentage. VMI is miserable at defending beyond the arc. Furman is slightly below average. I expect a lot of good looks from beyond the arc in this one. 

Furman has sped up their pace a lot this season. I think this team should be able to get quite a few chances in transition against a VMI defense that has been weak in transition all season. 

VMI's offensive efficiency at home this year has been excellent. The Keydets tempo is also clearly faster this year than it was a season ago.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* I'll take the under again here just as I did last night. High Point and Longwood have consistently played very slow paced games against each other. The same was true again last night.

The long term trend for these back to back games has been for the second game to be lower scoring than the first on average. That certainly won't happen in every case, but the defenses have stepped things up a bit most of the time in the second contest.

Here, Longwood is highly unlikely to be able to shoot the ball the way they did last night. Longwood shot 72.2% from 2 and 38.7% from 3 last night. This is a very poor offense overall.

Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star Play Under* The High Point Panthers are much better on defense than they were a year ago. High Point always plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the Big South. Tubby Smith's team isn't about to run in these conference games. 

Longwood has played the 305th toughest (very easy) schedule of defenses so far this year. Still, Longwood is averaging just 0.95 points per possession. The Lancers are playing almost two full seconds slower per possession than they did a year ago as well, so they should be happy to play at a slow pace as well.

High Point hasn't played a game in 2021. We've seen many teams come off these long breaks and struggle on the offensive end. 

Last year one of the games between these two went over this total by one point. The other meeting finished at only 111 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Golden State Warriors are 5-0 to the under with Draymond Green in the lineup. Draymond Green can be an offensive liability at times, especially when the Warriors only have one elite shooter around him instead of two (with Klay Thompson out this year). Green though is the team's best defender and he has really helped the Warriors on that end of the floor.

The Lakers have the number one defensive efficiency rating in the NBA in their last five games. When they are engaged, the Lakers have a very athletic team that can really shut down the opposition.

The Lakers should have the lead in this game late, and LA has been good at slowing the pace down when they do have the lead in the fourth quarter.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils started the season out playing extremely fast. It wasn't working at all. They also had a couple key injuries hit in the last few games. They have had to play without their best player, Kam'ron Cunningham. Between being very unsuccessful and losing their top scoring option, it appears this team has decided to turn the tempo down.

This is a team that was number one in the nation in tempo earlier this year, and now they have been the single slowest paced team in the SWAC in their three contests in the league. Their last two games have finished with 130 and 115 points total. 

Southern is one of the better defensive teams in the conference and I don't expect Mississippi Valley State to score many points here.

Southern is an average paced team. This total is several points too high based on recent tempo trends.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies have the best defense in the Big East. UConn has several bigs on the inside who are very long and are great shot blockers. You aren't going to get many easy looks near the basket against this UConn team. 

That's important since St. John's relies heavily on shooting from two point range rather than beyond the arc. I think St. John's will find it much harder than normal to score in this one. 

UConn also plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the Big East. The only team that is slower than them is Butler. Butler beat St. John's 69-57 recently. 

UConn is without star James Bouknight and the team's scoring ability definitely takes a hit without him. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics are still without Jayson Tatum. Tatum had been an offensive machine early this year, and he is a huge loss on that end of the floor. 

Tristan Thompson should get a bunch of minutes in the paint here with the Celtics very shorthanded in the frontcourt. Thompson is a really good defender and he should slow the Knicks down inside. Thompson isn't very good offensively and him playing more is a positive for the under.

Which NBA team is playing at the slowest pace in the last five games? The Knicks and it isn't very close. They are averaging only 93 possessions per contest in that time.

Boston put up a big point total against Orlando, but the Magic rank second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency in their last five games. The Magic also play pretty quickly.

This is an early start on Sunday, and these early games on Sunday have been very good under bets in the past decade.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars are still a very good team this year, but they aren't nearly as efficient on offense as they were a year ago. They lost very key pieces in Haws, Childs, and Toolson. 

BYU is actually much better on defense this year though. They have Haarms in the middle to keep people out of the paint a bit. They also have athletic guards who are quick and stay in front of their man.

San Francisco has slowed their pace a bit in recent games, and I think the Dons are okay with a more defensive contest here.

I think this one should be priced 4 or 5 points lower.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* South Alabama won lost night 73-64. Appalachian State shot the ball really poorly from the floor. That was surprising given that South Alabama has what is probably the worst defense in the Sun Belt. I would expect Appalachian State to bounce back with a better shooting performance here. There were very few free throws in last night's contest. There are likely to be a few more today. 

Last year's meetings between these two flew over this total and yesterday's game should have been a little higher.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers host the LA Rams on Saturday. 

The LA Rams have the best defense in the NFL. This is a team that just doesn't give up big plays in the passing game. The secondary is deep and they will challenge the Packers passing game. Green Bay also is banged up on the offensive line and I see that being a problem here against an elite defensive front who can really get after the passer.

The Rams quarterback play is a major question mark. Jared Goff didn't look good at all last week. He looked like a guy who was struggling to make all the throws. He was throwing wobblers and couldn't get a spiral. His injury seems like a major problem. The cold weather has always been tough for him and I don't see it going well here.

The Rams should run it often and try to keep the clock moving. The Packers play at a slow tempo as well.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Air Force Falcons play at the slowest pace of any team in the Mountain West. Wyoming has pushed the tempo against several teams this year, but they have also had the occasional slow paced contest. I think Air Force can dictate the tempo in this game. 

Wyoming has shot the ball well so far this year, but they have regression signs on offense. They have been playing a bunch of really weak defenses and their numbers should come back down to their expected outputs.

Air Force has been better defensively at home, and they get this contest at home.

This one is a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Evansville Purple Aces are playing at the single slowest pace of any team in basketball in conference play. They are using 21.7 seconds in an average possession. That is running the shot clock down to 8.3 seconds on average, which is stall ball at its best. 

Bradley plays at an average pace, but the Braves are clearly better on defense than offense. Bradley has already played a couple very low scoring games this year and Evansville is the slowest paced team they have played.

I wouldn't expect transition points in this one. Both teams run the clock and look for a jumper. This is a low total, but it is low for a good reason.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs want to play very fast this year. They have been using a full court press to try to create scoring opportunities in transition. UNC Greensboro also uses pressure defense. Both of these teams foul a lot and their games can end up adding up quickly late in the game because of the trips to the stripe.

They just played a couple days ago and the final total was 150. Samford was 5/26 from 3 in that game. Both teams shot below 65% from the free throw line as well. That game should have been near 160 instead of 150.

With a total slightly lower here, I'll take the over.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Mercer Bears are healthy once again. This Mercer offense is going to do some major damage with Alvarez and Cummings in the backcourt. This is an excellent offensive team.

Western Carolina has a star on offense in Faulkner. The Catamounts have been out of action lately, but they will be one of the better offenses and one of the worse defenses in this conference. 

Look for a fast pace and the offenses to have the upper hand.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah State 57-45 win over San Diego State on Thursday night was very impressive. Utah State doesn't have Merrill this year and that really hurts their offense. Their defense is even better this year though. 

San Diego State lost their key contributors on offense from last year as well, but they are even better on defense also.

This game is totaled right about where the first one was, and I think that is too high. Open looks will be very tough to come by in this game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders had 5 players out due to COVID and contract tracing issues last weekend. Their coach said this week that at least a couple of those guys will be out again this weekend. 

MTSU had been playing very fast earlier in the season, but they slowed things down drastically without their star players last weekend. They played two very low scoring games (123 and 123 points) against a very fast paced FIU team that usually piles up the points. Now, MTSU takes on a Southern Miss team that might be the best under team in Conference USA. 

Southern Miss plays at an extremely slow pace and they don't have much of an identity on offense. The Golden Eagles are improved on defense as are the Blue Raiders this year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* I had the Louisiana under last game against Little Rock and that was the right side, but it lost due to overtime. Louisiana is far worse on offense than they have been in most of their recent seasons. They are also far better on defense thanks to a couple big shot blockers in the middle of the lane. While Louisiana does still play fast, this is a team that has had their totals posted too high. Only one of their games against a Division One opponent has gone over this posted total in regulation.

UT Arlington has been up and down in terms of pace. This could be a fast paced game. Still, I'm not sure the efficiency on offense will be there. Arlington is shorthanded right now and that plays a role in this wager as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This number has been bet down to a point where I have to back the over. South Alabama is one of the worst defensive teams in the country. They don't play particularly fast, but many of their games still end up getting to a high number. 

Appalachian State's offense has improved in their second year under good offensive minded coach Dustin Kerns. 

The two games last year between these two teams finished at 152 and 148 points. 

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Monmouth played fast last year, but they are playing at a whole different level this season. The Hawks are pushing the ball in transition as fast as they ever have. They rank 7th in the nation in overall tempo so far this season. 

Quinnipiac has shown that they typically play to the pace of their opponent. They played slow games against Manhattan, but played very fast against Fairleigh Dickinson and New Hampshire. 

The two meetings between these two last year both sailed over this total finishing at 154 and 167 points. 

I see the pace being very quick here. If we see a tempo of 75 possessions, the two teams don't even have to average 1 point per possession to get us to this posted total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Washington shot the ball far over their season averages in their last game against California. I don't expect them to shoot the ball well against this USC defense.

Washington shoots 26.7% from three point range on the season. The Huskies like to get inside and try to get to the rim. That won't be easy against a USC team that ranks fourth in the nation in blocked shot percentage. USC's Evan Mobley is a difference maker on the interior and he should give Washington's offense a ton of trouble here.

The USC offense has been very inconsistent this year. USC had a terrible time with the Washington zone defense last season. They scored 40 points in the first meeting against Washington and only 62 in the second meeting.

This total is inflated by a few points.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Portland State Vikings are one of my favorite teams to take an over with. Portland State presses all game long and forces the tempo. They are going to put the opposition on the free throw line a bunch of times. Montana State shot free throws at 74% last year and they are at 74% again so far this year. They should take advantage of these opportunities.

Portland State's offense has been bad so far this year, but they have played some solid defenses. The Portland State defense has been even worse, and they haven't faced many teams who can shoot the ball well at all. Montana State is a solid offensive team.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Indiana Hoosiers have both had six games already this year that have stayed under this total in regulation. That's a really high number for this early in the season with a total set this low. Both teams are more than capable of playing in very low scoring contests.

Purdue has drastically slowed their pace in recent weeks. They played a 66-58 final against a fast paced Illinois team. They then won 55-54 against a relatively fast paced Michigan State team. 

Indiana is much better defensively than they were a year ago. They played faster early this year, but they have settled back into a pace slightly slower than last year in conference play.

I think this is a tight low scoring contest where the defenses have the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles are a completely different team than they were a year ago. Marquette played at a fast pace last year (60th in the country). They have slowed down drastically this season (249th in tempo in the country). Howard isn't here getting to the line all the time and creating for himself and his teammates. This Marquette team is a little better on defense and a little worse on offense as well.

Providence has shot the ball much better than expected so far this year. The Friars are improved on offense, but if we take a look at how many long two point jumpers and contested 3's they have made this season, it certainly appears they are due for some regression on the offensive end. The Friars defense can mix and match man and zone defenses to frustrate their opposition.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons are the favorites in the MAC for good reason. Justin Turner is a star and this Bowling Green offense is going to score a lot of points this year. They have failed to reach 83 points in only one of their MAC games so far this season. Bowling Green forces the tempo, and they'll try to get out in transition often in this game.

Ball State would likely prefer to slow things down a bit, but they are likely to be playing from behind in this one. The Cardinals lost their top two defenders from a year ago, and this is a team that can be scored on now. Ball State has allowed 78 and 86 points in their last two contests. 

Look for Bowling Green to put pressure on the Ball State defense early on and this total is a few points too low.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Cavs and Memphis Grizzlies played a 94-90 game on January 7th, and this total is simply too high given how many play makers are out of the lineup for both teams.

It should come as no surprise that without Ja Morant the Memphis Grizzlies have played far slower on offense. In their last four games, Memphis ranks as the 4th slowest team in the NBA. In the Cavs last four games, they have been the single slowest paced team in the NBA. 

This projects as a sloppy game played at a slow pace, and this line is quite a bit too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls take on the LA Clippers at Staples Center in a early tipoff on Sunday afternoon. 

The under is 32-16 in Clippers home games that start at 5 pm eastern or earlier. The under has done very well in Sunday early games across the NBA in recent years overall.

The Clippers are playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA thus far this season. Chicago has been shooting lights out, but the Clippers do have some better guys to guard White and Lavine than most teams do. I would expect their shots  to be contested better in this contest.

I'll take the under with this early game with a high total.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes aren't a team I'm anxious to bet an under with, but I think this number is a little too high.

The Big Ten is notorious for being a great under conference when totals are set very high. Iowa and Minnesota just played a game recently which went to 83-83 after regulation (just over this total), and that was a game where both teams shot lights out and went to the line a combined 67 times. 

Minnesota has slowed their pace down some in recent contests, and I wouldn't be surprised if they try to slow down some here. 

Iowa is an amazing offense, but they are due for a little regression on offense. The Hawkeyes are averaging 1.18 points per possession in the Big Ten. They averaged 1.09 points per possession in league play last year.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans have a top three offense in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill has been a great fit at quarterback here, and they have a star at running back in Derrick Henry. The wide receivers are underrated as well. There are weapons all over the field for the Titans.

Baltimore's offense started the year off playing poorly. They have really kicked it into high gear of late. While the Ravens wins late in the year did come against bad teams, it is important to note that the Titans defense is a bottom five unit in the NFL. This is one of the worst defenses the Ravens have faced all season.

There is no bad weather in the forecast here. 

Only one of the Titans last seven games has stayed under this number. 

Jerome Boger's crew is set to call this game. In Boger's crews games, the over is a whopping 114-76 (60% overs). Look for a lot of key defensive flags in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay offense has been inconsistent this year. Tampa Bay has been at their best when Tom Brady isn't facing significant pressure. The single biggest strength of this Washington team is their ability to rush the passer. Brady shouldn't be comfortable in this one.

On the Washington side, the offense is a mess. Alex Smith isn't healthy and he'll either be playing and struggling or it will be Washington backup Taylor Heinicke playing. He isn't a guy who instills any confidence. Washington will have to try to be very cautious on offense. 

Tampa Bay's defense is very strong against the run. The Bucs have given up some big plays in the passing game, but I don't think Washington is a team who can take advantage of that weakness.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Utah Valley is without a couple key players due to COVID. They drastically slowed the pace of the game down yesterday and it finished at 127 points total. I don't know why they would speed things up again when it worked out well for them last night.

The two meetings between these two last year finished at 139 points and 126 points. 

I look for another slower paced game with this total being quite a few points too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns are a completely different team this year. Theo Akwuba is a tremendous shot blocker down low and he has made this defense light years better than it was a year ago. 

These two teams played last night and it was a slower paced game that finished at 130 points. Little Rock is the team that wants to slow things down and they likely will here too. Louisiana has that underrated defense and I think their games continue to be lined too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* FIU/MTSU over was a play of mine yesterday which lost. MTSU had four guys out due to contract tracing for COVID and injuries. At least three of those guys including their point guard are expected out today per an MTSU beat writer. 

MTSU stalled in a big way last night. This was a team who averaged shooting the ball within 16 seconds of getting possession. Last night, they used three seconds per possession more. Without their star guards they clearly decided to slow things down. I don't think that changes here.

Both of these teams normally play fast, but both turn it over a lot and aren't very efficient on offense.

Take the under with MTSU being shorthanded.

*4 Star Play Under* The Butler Bulldogs are playing shorthanded, and they have decided to play at an extremely slow pace. They are using 20.0 seconds of the shot clock on average so far this year in Big East play. That's one of the slowest paces you will see anywhere. 

UConn has slowed their pace down drastically this year because they have all kinds of height and would rather be a halfcourt team. The Huskies are great on the defensive end. They contest everything in the paint very well. You'll have to beat this team from the outside. Butler hasn't been a good outside shooting team this season.

I see this one being played at a pace of about 61 possessions. Both teams scoring  around 1.04 or 1.05 points per possession (higher than you would expect with two good defenses) still would keep this under the total. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams met twice last year and the final totals were 114 and 121 points. 

Siena just played its first two games of the season against Monmouth who plays at the fastest pace of any team in the MAAC. The Saints had higher scoring games than they normally will because of their opponent.

Fairfield is a good defensive team who really struggles on offense and slows the tempo down as much as anyone in the MAAC. The Stags want this to be a lower scoring contest.

I think this is an overreaction to Siena's first two games. My number here is 125.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies played a very high scoring game against Stanford in their last contest. Stanford got a big lead and Washington had to press and run in the second half. There were 107 points scored in that second half with all the fouls and pressing. That has inflated this line.

Washington is still a terrible offensive team. The Huskies take a lot of low percentage shots on a consistent basis. The Huskies are good on defense with their matchup zone. They have one weakness and that is on the defensive glass. Cal is a team that is very weak on the offensive boards.

Cal's Matt Bradley missed last game with an injury and he is considered a game time decision here. Bradley is the key to this offense. If he plays he'll be less than 100 percent. 

Cal plays at a very slow pace. The Bears don't want to get in a track meet here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* This game played to a final total of 146 points last night and that was with a combined 22 free throws in the game.

These two teams have proven that they play fast against one another. Their last three meetings have all gone over this total.

I have this number at 148 so I have value here on the high side.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Navy Midshipmen are much better on offense this year. Cam Davis is one of the best players in the Patriot League. Navy's defense is still no better than average. 

Lehigh typically likes to run under Brett Reed. They played a couple high scoring contests in their first two games. Lehigh is one of the weakest defenses in the conference.

Three of the last four games between these two teams have gone over this total. Lehigh has been able to dictate the tempo in general against Navy. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* MTSU has continued to play very fast this year. MTSU has looked great defensively so far this year, but I think that is largely due to the competition they have played this season. MTSU has played the 325th toughest slate of offenses so far this year according to KenPom (very weak offenses). 

FIU is always a really fast paced team under Coach Ballard and that is the case again this year. They are much more efficient on offense than they have been in some seasons recently. They are also much weaker on defense since they lost their star shot blocker in the middle (Osaghae). 

Look for a lot of transition shots here from both teams. With even decent shooting this one should get past the posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Wright State Raiders and Youngstown State Penguins put up 151 and 158 points last year in their two meetings. Wright State is really pushing the pace, and they are the favorite here and the more talented team.

Youngstown State is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Penguins have allowed 87, 81, 77, and 79 points in their last four contests. They are a good offense though. Youngstown State gets a lot of offensive rebounds and doesn't turn the ball over, and that helps make them a very efficient offense. 

Last year in the first meeting between these two teams there were 32 offensive rebounds. There should be a lot in this one too.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams met on Thursday and they'll play the second game of their back to back here on Friday afternoon. 

Yesterday's game finished 78-75 and was played at a blistering pace of 84 possessions. That is one of the fastest paced games you will see. 

Long Island's coach Derek Kellogg said in the offseason that he really wanted to up the tempo even more this season, and they have done just that so far this year. Long Island's average possession length was 16.1 seconds last year, and so far this year it is an extremely quick 14.1 seconds. 

St. Francis is one of the three or four fastest paced teams in the conference as well. 

Yesterday's game got to 153 points with some really bad shooting numbers. If the shooting numbers normalize this game has a chance to be quite a bit higher. There were very few free throws in the first game as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* I very rarely bet a side or total and then switch and bet the other side in their next game, but I'll make an exception here. 

We had a nice 2-1 day on Thursday, but the one loss was the Sacred Heart/Merrimack under. It was never close. While Merrimack was an under machine last year, they played much much faster in the Thursday contest.

As I went back through the stats for that Thursday game, Merrimack really got out into transition at every opportunity. There was a lot of turnover at Merrimack in the offseason and it appears Coach Gallo has decided to get this team running more this season. 

Sacred Heart is weaker on defense this year than they were a year ago. They are going to be one of the worst teams defensively in this conference.

Based on the tempo of game one, this total is just too low. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Big Sky has been the single best "over" conference in college basketball. There is very little defense put up by most teams in the Big Sky Conference, at least by the weaker teams in the conference. 

Low totaled games in this conference have been very good over bets in the past decade. 

Northern Arizona and Idaho State are both better on offense than they are on defense. These two teams met twice in the regular season last year and they scored 138 and 160 points in regulation in those two contests.

This is a very low total for a game with two bad defenses.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors played 18 games in the conference last year. Only two of those games went over this posted total. Only one of them went over this total in regulation. Merrimack uses a zone press that slows the game down drastically. Joe Gallo is a tremendous defensive coach. 

I don't expect Sacred Heart to be able to figure this defense out. Sacred Heart was a solid offense last year, but they lost most of their key contributors. Sacred Heart scored 57 points in both meetings against Merrimack last year. I don't see how we could expect them to score very many here with a far weaker offensive team.

Sacred Heart's defense isn't very good, but Merrimack's offense is very in efficient. They lack guys who can create their own shot and get quality looks.

This should be a sloppy game and I expect it to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This is an early start time. Mt. St. Mary's has played at the single slowest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. This is a team that looks to win low scoring games and control the pace.

Last year, the two meetings between these two teams finished at 137 points and 98 points. This one likely falls in between those two results.

St. Francis has had some very fast paced games so far this year, but that is primarily because of who they have played (Bryant twice for example). 

The early start is a positive as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Marquette Golden Eagles are playing a lot different without Markus Howard. Marquette is much slower paced team, and they are also less efficient on offense because they have gotten to the line a little less. 

UConn is one of the best defensive teams in this conference. The Huskies have a lot of length on the inside and will contest everything near the hoop. They allowed only 58 to USC. They allowed only 66 in regulation against Creighton. They allowed only 61 points against DePaul. 

I expect a slow paced game and both teams to do a good job contesting shots. My projected total is several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*This line has moved down with some sharp money on the under coming in on Monday night. I would rate this as a 4 star play down to 139.5 and a 3 star play below that. Thanks and good luck* 

*3 Star Play Over* The Wyoming Cowboys beat Fresno State 78-74 yesterday. Both teams shot the ball fairly well, but the game was played to 72 possessions- a very quick pace. 

Wyoming's games this year have been great to over bettors. The Cowboys have seen 144 points or more scored in every game this year. In fact, they have had 149 points or more in every game except for one. 

Fresno State is fouling a lot and the Wyoming team gets to the line a lot and shoots a high percentage from the free throw line.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Drake Bulldogs beat Southern Illinois 73-55 yesterday. The pace was only 62 possessions and if anything the final score could have been a little bit lower than that 128 points. 

Southern Illinois is likely to try to slow down the tempo in this one. The Salukis don't want a shootout with Drake. Southern Illinois is due for regression on offense. They won't keep shooting 42% from 3 point range all season.

I think the oddsmakers didn't make a big enough adjustment here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game tips off at 9 am local time. Montana is playing at a slower pace this year. The Grizzlies are without their star (Pridgett) from last year. Montana is struggling to get a "go to" guy on offense this year. They have endured some long scoring droughts this year.

Northern Colorado is without their star (Radebaugh) from last year as well. The Bears are very reliant on the 3 point shot, and they are up against a Montana team that is one of the best at defending beyond the arc.

The early start time is extreme. These kids certainly aren't used to playing a game tipping at 9 am, and through the years the few extremely early start times have trended toward the under with poor shooting numbers.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The two slowest paced teams in the NBA so far this year meet in Phoenix on Sunday night. Phoenix has slowed down a lot with Chris Paul running the point. This is a team now that looks to run more halfcourt sets. The Suns are also clearly improved on the defensive end. Phoenix has been the second best defense in the NBA so far this year in six games. 

The LA Clippers can lock teams up on defense when they are fully engaged. I would expect the Clippers to be up for a game against a Phoenix team that has played well. The Clippers have multiple very good defenders on the perimeter to slow down the Suns outside shooters.

I think it has been hard for the books to adjust to the Suns new tempo and improved defense. They have started to adjust, but they haven't adjusted enough. Phoenix hasn't played a single game that finished with more than 216 points. All but one of their games have finished at 209 points or less.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Ed DeChellis talked in the preseason about this Navy team being far more experienced and more capable of scoring on the offensive end. That has been true so far this year. Navy has scored 73 points or more in four of their five games (they have scored exactly 78 in three of their games). 

Bucknell likes to push the pace. The Bison were only 12/30 from 2 point range yesterday against Navy, and they averaged only 0.93 points per possession. I would expect a little better from this offense.

Navy does play slowly, but they aren't as slow as in previous seasons. They no longer rank as one of the very slowest teams in the country- rather they are just fairly slow. 

Looking at the types of shots that were taken and the pace, yesterday's game should have been higher than it was, and it still got to 147 points.

With a move down today, this line is several points below my projections.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* These two teams have a history of putting up points in a big way when they square off. 

Since Hamilton took over as the Eastern Kentucky coach and they started using a full court press, the 3 meetings between these two teams have finished with 168 points, 162 points, and 178 points. 

Austin Peay has the scorers and ball handlers to beat this Eastern Kentucky press. Austin Peay is a weak team defensively.

Eastern Kentucky is very good at forcing the pace, and they have been able to do that against Austin Peay in recent matchups. 

Both teams have had some lower scoring games recently, which has given us a number that is several points too low here.

Take the over.