*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* These two starters are the primary reason for the over play here. Cesar Vargas isn't a highly touted guy, and he's been really bad in his first couple starts on the road. Milwaukee's offense has been crushing the baseball in the last few games. 

Zach Davies has been consistently bad this year. The over is 4-1 in his last 5 starts. Davies is walking almost exactly as many guys as he is striking out right now, and that's a terrible sign. The Padres offense isn't good, but they have been better in recent days and I think they score several here.

Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom 6 or 8 in the league, so late runs shouldn't come as a surprise in this one either. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants have played two straight games that have finished under the total despite the roof being open at Chase Field. While both of those games were low scoring, the final scores weren't quite indicative of how many scoring chances there were. 

Both days there were a bunch of guys left on base by both teams, and on Saturday there were 3 balls hit off the wall that were nearly home runs. 

Jake Peavy and Patrick Corbin are both having problems right now. Peavy just isn't good anymore. He is too old and he's lost his stuff. His fastball is much slower and his walk rate is the highest of his career right now. Corbin has pitched four times with the roof open at Chase Field and he has a 6.75 ERA in those games. 

The roof is slated to be open on Saturday with temperatures of 98 degrees and winds blowing out at 15 mph. That's perfect conditions for the ball to fly very well. Both teams should plate several runs in this one. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Saturday Night KNOCKOUT* I had the over in last night's Tigers/Orioles game, and that play failed badly as the final finished 1-0. I don't think that's going to happen again here. In the matchup last night between Tillman and Verlander there were two pitchers capable of throwing great games on certain occasions. Anibal Sanchez and Mike Wright do not seem to fit that mold right now.

Anibal Sanchez has zero confidence right now and his mechanics are off. Sanchez has a 5.89 ERA, and it isn't because of bad luck. Sanchez just hasn't been good. He is walking 5.4 batters per nine innings which is easily a career high. He's become a guy who gives up a lot of homers the last couple years, and this Orioles lineup definitely has some great home run hitters.

Mike Wright hasn't proven himself in the big leagues yet. While it's possible he will end up being a good pitcher, I don't think he is ready yet. Wright doesn't miss enough bats.

These are two great offenses and with these guys on the mound, I expect to see a lot of runs. 

The over is 18-6-3 in Sanchez's last 27 starts. The over is 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two in Baltimore. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks offense is scoring almost 5 runs per game at home this year. San Francisco's offense is always much better away from home, since they play in such a strong pitcher's park.

Chase Field is a tremendous park for overs with the roof open in the warm weather. The roof is slated to be open for this one with a game time temperature of 99 degrees. The ball should be flying extremely well here.

Tripp Gibson is the umpire here, and my database ranks him in the top 25% of over umpires in the majors. 

Jeff Samardzija has an ERA above 5 when pitching in Arizona and Shelby Miller has been a mess all year. Miller is walking way too many people, and the Giants have the hitters to make him pay for his mistakes. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Oakland A's and Tampa Bay Rays both have bad lineups. These are two offenses that I expect to see scuffle frequently throughout the course of the season. 

While Tampa Bay is better against lefties than righties, Rich Hill has really impressed me so far this year. Hill hasn't given up more than 4 hits in any of his last five starts. The Rays are likely to have a tough time stringing together hits.

Jake Odorizzi is a guy I'm high on right now. Odorizzi has always been good at home, and now he is maturing into a complete pitcher. He is good at keeping the ball down and avoiding the big innings.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Baltimore Orioles rank second in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Detroit Tigers rank 12th. 

Baltimore's offense is going to score a lot of runs this year. The Orioles have power hitters and good on base percentage guys and that's a nice combination to have. Detroit hasn't hit as well as expected so far this year, but it is only a matter of time.

Justin Verlander has been inconsistent this year, and his best days are clearly behind him. Chris Tillman is having a great start to the season, but I don't see him keeping up this kind of pace. Tillman just doesn't have good enough stuff. 

With these two offenses, I'll gladly take the over at this low number. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* This is a matchup two strong pitchers, and these are two offenses that are rather inconsistent. At times this year both the Mets and the Dodgers have looked good on offense, but at other times these offenses have been terrible. They'll have tough challenges in this one.

Noah Syndergaard is one of the top ten pitchers in baseball without any question. He is striking out 12.5 batters per nine innings which is great stuff. Syndergaard isn't going to back down from a challenge either. He pitched great at Dodger Stadium in the playoffs last year. The Mets bullpen is one of the top three in the majors also.

Kenta Maeda has been great so far this year, and I expect the Mets to struggle for a while against him with his deceptive delivery. 

The under is 4-0-1 in the Dodgers last 5 games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. The under is 8-0-1 in Mark Ripperger's last 9 games as the home plate umpire. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Tampa Bay Rays offense is awful against right handed pitching. Taijuan Walker has the stuff to have a breakout season for the Mariners, and he's off to a great start. Tampa Bay is able to put up runs against lefties, but against quality right-handers this Rays team is often shut down.

Chris Archer isn't off to a great start this year, but he has shown signs of coming into form of late. Archer has tremendous stuff, and I believe in him long term. The Mariners aren't a great hitting team, and Archer definitely has the ability to throw a gem. Archer has a great 2.99 ERA in day games in his career.

An under umpire and get away day are good factors too. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays offense is going to break out at some point this year, but Madison Bumgarner is a really tough guy to do it against. Bumgarner will want to play the role of stopper here as the Giants have been skidding lately. He has proven very good in this role in the past.

Marcus Stroman has quality stuff, and he has an ERA (3.08) more than half a run lower during day games in his career than night games. With this being a day game after a night game and get away day I do expect some top players to be out of the lineup in this one. 

Tony Randazzo is the umpire here, and he has been on a nice 10-1 run to the under in his last 11 games behind the plate. His big strike zone should help both pitchers a lot.

The under is 10-0-1 in the Blue Jays last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. The under is 5-0-2 in the Blue Jays last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 interleague games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the NL West. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in Stroman's last 4 starts after the team allowed 2 runs or less. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague home games. The under is 4-0-1 in Bumgarner's last 5 interleague starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 50-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Chicago White Sox start Miguel Gonzalez in this one. Gonzalez was released by the Orioles. Gonzalez is a guy who works hard on the mound, but his stuff just isn't that good. His stuff was never anything better than average, and now he is in decline. Chicago is having a nice season, but they have a weakness at the back of the rotation. Gonzalez is getting a shot, but I don't expect things to go well for him in a hitter-friendly park like this one.

Colby Lewis isn't good, and he definitely isn't good when pitching at home. In Lewis' last 35 starts at home he has a 5.54 ERA. I expect the White Sox to get to him, and then the Texas pen is one of the worst in the league right now as well.

Warm weather should help the ball carry well on Monday night in Texas.

The over is 3-0-1 in the White Sox last 4 road games. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of 60% or higher. The over is 4-0-1 in Lewis' last 5 Monday starts. The over is 5-0-1 in Lewis' last 6 starts after Texas scored 5 runs or more in the previous game. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Value* The Houston Astros are a team that swings and misses a lot. Corey Kluber is a guy who misses a lot of bats. A free swinging team like Houston doesn't matchup very well against a guy like Kluber.

Kluber appears to have regained his top form as well. After a stretch of subpar performance for a while, Kluber has locked things in of late. He has thrown two great games against Detroit in the past few weeks. 

Mike Fiers isn't necessarily a guy I'm really high on, but he is better than he has pitched so far this year at least. Houston's bullpen is also significantly better than their numbers so far this year would indicate. 

The under is 21-5-2 in the last 28 meetings between these two teams. The under is 6-2-1 in Kluber's last 9 starts. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Boston Red Sox offense is the single best in the majors against right handed pitching. Sonny Gray is a good pitcher, but I'm not sure he is as good as his numbers from the past couple years suggest. Gray's peripherals suggest he got a bit lucky in those years, and now he goes to a hitter-friendly park against a red hot offense. Gray isn't in his best form right now.

Clay Buchholz is a tough one to figure out, because he can be so good or he can be terrible. Buchholz has consistently been terrible against Oakland though. He has an ERA of 6.81 in 8 career starts against the A's. 

The wind will be blowing out at about 15 mph here.

The over is 5-0 in Gray's last 5 road starts. The over is 4-1 in Buchholz's last 5 starts vs. Oakland. I'm taking the over. 

*4 Star Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox take center stage on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN. Steven Wright has pitched well this year, but I don't think he's as good as his numbers this year would lead you to believe. Wright is nearly 32 years old and struggled to make it into the majors for a long time. He had mediocre Triple A numbers for many years and had a 4.04 ERA last year. His 1.67 ERA this year won't stay for too much longer.

Luis Severino was very fortunate last year. Severino had a 2.89 ERA but a FIP of 4.37. His FIP is 4.44 this year and his ERA is 6.31. Severino has potential, but right now he is being crushed by the long ball. 

Boston is first in the majors against right handed pitching, and the Yankees offense is better than they have shown so far this year.

I expect both teams to get on the board plenty of times in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels and the Tampa Bay Rays are two of the worst offenses in the majors against right handed pitching. The Angels are averaging only 3.43 runs per game against right handed pitching and a .237 batting average. The Rays have been even worse. Tampa Bay has a .211 batting average against righties and they are averaging only 3.08 runs per game.

Matt Andriese and Nick Tropeano are certainly not stars, but they don't need to be against these offenses. The Rays bullpen ranks as league average in ERA while the Angels rank as the fourth best bullpen in the majors by that measure. 

The under is 17-6-4 in the Rays last 27 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0-1 in Tropeano's last 5 starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Saturday's BEST Bet* The San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies have been piling up the runs lately, so we get a total that is a little too high here based on recency bias from the oddsmakers. San Francisco's Johnny Cueto should be a great fit for this park, and I expect him to pitch very well at home through the season. Cueto is at his best early in the year. 

Jon Gray is a guy who is going to be very good. Gray might struggle at times in Coors Field, but he has elite stuff and is a guy who can shut down a lot of lineups away from Coors Field.

The ball shouldn't be flying well here with a high dewpoint and a chance for a passing shower in San Francisco on Saturday afternoon. 

I see a close low scoring game all the way. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Jeff Locke isn't a good pitcher, and he is a really bad pitcher on the road. Adam Wainwright was a great pitcher a few years ago, but he has a lot to prove about what kind of pitcher he is right now. Wainwright has an ERA above 6 on the year.

Locke has allowed Cardinals hitters to have a .381 OBP against him in his career. Wainwright has been amazing over the course of his career, but one team that has given him trouble is the Pirates. The Pirates have a .351 OBP against Wainwright. 

Dana DeMuth is a good over umpire in this one, and the weather is a big help too. The temperature is expected to reach 85 degrees and the wind will be blowing out at about 15 mph.

The over is 5-0-1 in Locke's last 6 starts during game 2 of a series. The over is 4-0 in Locke's last 4 starts when his opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The over is 6-0-2 in the Cardinals last 8 following a loss. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 Saturday games. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. A 24-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Detroit Tigers and Texas Rangers meet early on Saturday afternoon. Detroit starts Mike Pelfrey, and he is pure fade material right now. The oddsmakers know it though, and have made the Rangers a pretty big favorite despite having the shaky A.J. Griffin on the mound here. 

Griffin has pitched well so far this year, but looking back at his history you'll see that he has been very up and down. This Detroit lineup is far better than they have looked of late, and I think they'll bounce out of this slump very soon.

Marquez is the umpire here and that's good for the over. The wind will be blowing out at 15 mph during the game. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Cincinnati Reds have the worst bullpen in the majors. In fact, they have the worst bullpen the major leagues have seen in many years. Cincinnati's bullpen has allowed at least one run in 23 straight games. That's truly mind boggling. Milwaukee's bullpen is the second worst pen in my bullpen rankings. If both bullpens end up in the game for a while, that's great for over bettors.

Tyler Cravy starts for Milwaukee and he had a 5.70 ERA last year in the majors. He has only been mediocre in Triple A, and I see no reason to believe he'll be a good big leaguer anytime soon. Tim Adleman starts for Cincinnati. He only made 3 starts in Triple A before being moved up to the majors. He has decent stuff, but I don't expect him to last late into the game.

The over is 12-1 in the Brewers last 13 following a loss. The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 following a win. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Cincinnati. A 20-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Friday Fast CASH* The Cleveland Cavaliers just set a record for most made 3's in a game with 25. Also, they put down 18 of them in game one. Cleveland is shooting well over 50% from long range in this series so far. Cleveland is good from long range, but they can't keep shooting it that well. 

Atlanta had the best defensive efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference this year, and I expect a strong defensive effort from them in front of their home crowd and down 2-0. The Hawks offense has had trouble getting open looks against this Cavs defense in key moments during this series and even in the regular season.

The tempo in the first couple games was about 92 possessions per game, which is very slow. With any kind of normal shooting numbers, that makes the under look very intriguing. 

The public is taking the over and the line is still dropping. I'm on the under in this one. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Two young starters in this one, and I think we see plenty of runs. Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the best over umpires in all of baseball. Neither pitcher will be getting the corners in this one.

The Red Sox offense is tremendous against right handed pitchers. They are scoring 6 runs per game against right handed starters on average so far this year. The White Sox will be starting Erik Johnson here, and I don't believe he has staying power in the big leagues. Johnson doesn't have that pitch to put away the opposition.

Henry Owens has more potential, but he walks too many guys for my liking, and Emmel will make that difficult on him.

The over is 6-0 in Owens' last 6 road starts. The over is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 during game 3 of a series. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less. The over is 7-0 in Johnson's last 7 starts during game 3 of a series. The over is 8-0-1 in Johnson's last 9 when his opponent scores 5 or more in their previous game. The over is 2-0-2 in Johnson's last 4 home starts. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB BEST Bet* It's Chase Anderson vs. Alfredo Simon here and that should mean a lot of runs here. That's not the only reason to like the over though, since these are the two worst bullpens in the majors as well.

Chase Anderson has potential, but in his last couple starts he has been absolutely rocked, and in recent quotes he sounds like he has lost some confidence. 

Alfredo Simon has a 13.50 ERA on the year, and he looks like a guy who has lost his stuff in a big way in the past year or so. He is almost 35 years old, and his velocity isn't very impressive.

Both starters have meltdown potential like crazy, and these bullpens are capable of giving up runs in a hurry.

The over is 11-1 in the Brewers last 12 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings at Cincinnati between these two. A 22-2 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Totals TKO* Adam Conley threw a no hitter through 7 and 2/3 innings in his last game. He threw more pitches in that game than he has thrown in any other game in his career. Conley is improving and I like his potential, but I see this as a tough spot for him. Most pitchers have a "letdown" spot after that kind of performance, and a youngster coming off a big workload is a prime candidate for that.

Robbie Ray is a solid, but unspectacular lefty for Arizona. Miami smashes left-handed pitching, as does Arizona. These two teams are very comfortable against the lefties, and that's a big reason for this play.

The weather should be nice enough for the roof to be open and the wind will be blowing out here. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers lineup is very good, and it would be tough to find a better first five in any other batting order in the majors. Cleveland's offense is just slightly better than the league average against right-handed pitching. They are certainly capable of scoring several against a subpar pitcher.

Anibal Sanchez has all sorts of mechanical problems right now, and his confidence is gone. The Indians lit him up a couple weeks ago, and I don't see any reason to believe he'll quiet them down in this game. 

Corey Kluber is a great pitcher, but the Tigers have been very tough on him throughout his career. Detroit hitters collectively have an impressive .318 average against Kluber. 

The over is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 following a loss. The over is 6-0-1 in Sanchez's last 7 Wednesday starts. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team that doesn't have a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Kluber's last 4 starts vs. the Tigers. The over is 4-0 in home plate umpire Gabe Morales' last 4 games involving the Tigers and 4-0 in his last 4 games involving the Indians. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Oakland A's and the Seattle Mariners finish their three game series on Wednesday afternoon. This is a game I was watching for the under, and when it went to 7.5 that was enough for me to pull the trigger.

Sean Manaea is Oakland's top pitching prospect. After a shaky first start, I like his chances of pitching well in this second start of his career. Seattle is a little bit below league average against lefties.

The Oakland offense is terrible, and Felix Hernandez has tremendous numbers against this team. Collectively, their OBP against Felix is only .261. 

Both bullpens rank in the top ten in the majors and this is a get away day game with an under umpire in Adam Hamari. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Sonny Gray and the Oakland A's host Hisashi Iwakuma and the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday. Both of these guys are coming off rough starts, and that's what gives us value on the under in this one. 

There's nothing about the Oakland lineup that scares anyone. Oakland may well have the worst lineup in the American League. Seattle's offense is improved, but they are about league average on offense still.

Both lineups have an on base percentage of less than .300 against the opposing pitcher in this one. The Mariners have a .265 OBP against Gray and the A's have a .287 OBP against Iwakuma.

Dan Bellino is the umpire here and he is a solid under umpire. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Total of the Week* This total is a full run too low. To start with, we have Chad Fairchild as the umpire here, and he ranks in my database in the top 25 umpires as far as fewest strikes called in the past two years, so that is helpful to the over.

Jeff Samardzija has been making too many mistake pitches inside the strike zone so far this year. The Reds offense is not spectacular, but they do still have some offensive talent. Joey Votto had a big hit last night, and there is no way he is going to continue to slump the way he has in the first month of the season. Cincinnati should get scoring chances.

San Francisco's offense has been on fire of late. Only twice in their last ten games have they scored less than 4 runs. The Giants have scored 7 runs or more in four of those last ten games. This Giants offense is very good, especially when they are on the road. They are playing in a ballpark that is much more hitter-friendly than their home park here.

Cincinnati's bullpen is the worst bullpen I've seen in a very long time. This Reds bullpen is just awful. The numbers they are putting up across the board are worst in the majors by a mile. Moscot isn't anything special as the starter, and once he goes out of the game, things look even worse for Cincinnati.

The over is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 road games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after their opponent allows 5 runs or more last game. The over is 10-1 in their last 11 overall. The over is 4-0-1 in the Reds last 5 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games. The over is 4-0-2 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Cincinnati. The over is 5-0 in Fairchild's last 5 games behind home plate. A 38-1 angle. Take the over big. TOP Total of the Week. 

*3 Star MLB Monday MONEY* The San Diego Padres offense has hit left handed pitching well this year, but they rank dead last in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. The Rockies lineup is good, but they aren't great away from home. 

Jon Gray is an up and coming star. While he needs to improve his command, Gray has all the tools to be a very good pitcher for this Rockies team. He faces the weakest offense he'll face all year.

James Shields is a quality pitcher who eats up a lot of innings and does a good job keeping his team in the game.

This one is played in San Diego, which is one of the best pitcher parks in the majors. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Kansas City Royals offense is in a deep slump right now, and I don't like their chances of busting out of it against Taijuan Walker.

Walker is a breakout candidate this year, and he has pitched very well so far this season. Walker has been ability to limit the amount of free passes this year. He has better command of his strikeout pitches now than he has had at any other point in his career.

Ian Kennedy is off to a solid start to the year, and I think he can have a quality year for the Royals this year. The Seattle offense is improved, but they still aren't great.

These are two of the top five bullpens in my rankings, so I expect good work in the late innings. 

The under is 8-0 in the Royals last 8 during game three of a series. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 2-0-2 in Kennedy's last 4 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Walker's last 4 starts. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cardinals and Nationals meet in what should be a low scoring game on Sunday afternoon. Carlos Martinez has turned into a nice starting pitcher, and while Max Scherzer hasn't been at his best recently, it is just a matter of time before he turns things around.

Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings has the single highest strike percentage called in the majors in the past 7 years. Obviously, that's very helpful to the under. Both Scherzer and Martinez are guys who can punch out a lot of batters, and Eddings has a very high strikeout to walk ratio.

Look for a pitcher's duel here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* I rate the Milwaukee Brewers as the second worst bullpen in the majors according to my numbers. Miami's bullpen ranks right in the middle of the pack. Tom Koehler is much worse on the road than at home. Wily Peralta has absolutely no confidence in himself right now, and he has been getting crushed by just about everyone this year. 

This is a game where I think big innings are likely on each side. The early sharp money has sided with the over, and I agree with that. I think we'll see plenty of runs. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Angels offense has been dreadful against right handed pitching this year. The Angels have been pretty good against lefties. Derek Holland has really struggled with this Angels team in his career. 

Matt Shoemaker isn't fooling anyone this year. He seems to be having problems with his mechanics, and that is never a good thing. Shoemaker relies heavily on deception, and right now that isn't working.

These two bullpens are really bad. A lot of scoring late in this one should come as no surprise. 

The over is 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two in Texas. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Friday Night MONEY* The Indiana Pacers collapsed in Toronto in the 4th quarter in Game 5. The Pacers had that game and gave it away. Now, they have their back up against the wall down 3-2 in the series. 

This has been a tightly contested series where the two offenses have struggled to find any real consistency. The tempo is slow in this series because Toronto plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the NBA. 

Elimination games tend to lead to unders. The under sits at a little over 60% in potential elimination games in the NBA playoffs in the past seven years. This total hasn't been adjusted downward by the oddsmakers, so I'm grabbing the under in what should be a tight game.

The under is 5-0 in the Raptors last 5 road games. The under is 8-2 in the Pacers last 10 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chase Field roof will be open again on Thursday night, and I'll once again be on the over when the Cardinals take on the Diamondbacks. I've gotten the win from the last two days with the over, and the over also cashed in game one of this series when I didn't have a play on the game. I believe this fourth game of the series will also go over the posted total.

Chase Field is a totally different park with the roof open. The ball flies extremely well with the open roof. Those long fly ball outs become home runs.

Michael Wacha is a good pitcher, but he is much better when pitching at home than on the road. Rubby De La Rosa is extremely inconsistent, and I don't think he'll put a second straight strong start together. If you look at his career numbers, the Cardinals have crushed him in the past.

The over is 5-0 in the Cardinals last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 4-0 in Wacha's last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the Diamondbacks last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. The over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 games between these teams. A 28-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Los Angeles Angels start Nick Tropeano here. Tropeano has a great ERA so far this year, but I'm skeptical of his ability to keep up his current level. Tropeano doesn't have high end stuff, and he has been inconsistent in the past. He has also faced Oakland, Minnesota, and Seattle in his first three starts. The Royals will be the best offense he has gone against yet. 

Chris Young is almost 37 years old and his stuff is declining. Young has done a nice job for the Royals, but I think his good run is coming to an end. Young gives up a bunch of fly balls, and the Angels certainly have some power hitters in their lineup. 

Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is an over umpire who won't give these guys the corners. 

With two starting pitchers with a lot of question marks, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals have gone over the posted total in the first two games in this series, and I think this one will go over as well. Chase Field's roof is slated to be open for this one, and that's a huge deal. The ball flies extremely well with the roof open, and I believe the roof being open is worth almost a full run to the total.

Adam Wainwright and Patrick Corbin are both good pitchers, but both are trying to recover from major injuries. Both of these guys have been less than stellar so far this year. As they try to work out the kinks, it's been apparent that they won't be quite as good as they were in the past. Wainwright in particular has dropped off quite a bit.

With the roof open, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a great park for hitters with the roof open. Long-term data suggests the roof being open is worth at least one full run to the total in Arizona. 

Shelby Miller has been a mess this year. He's walking all kinds of batters, and the Cardinals have plenty of patient hitters. Arizona's offense is very capable of scoring runs at home, especially with the roof open and the ball flying well. 

The Cardinals have given Carlos Martinez great run support, and Miller is putting so many people on right now. 

For the roof being open, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays host the Baltimore Orioles for a second straight night. Baltimore was shut out by the Rays on Monday night. While this Orioles offense is very good, I think they could struggle again here against Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi has excellent stuff and I expect a breakout season from him this year. Odorizzi has great splits at home in his career.

Ubaldo Jimenez can sometimes struggle with control, but he'll get a lot of help here from Ron Kulpa being the home plate umpire. Kulpa has the single best under record in baseball in the past ten years. Kulpa is a strike calling machine, and Jimenez and Odorizzi will both be getting the corners in this one.

Baltimore's bullpen is great and their defense is excellent as well. Tampa Bay is one of the worst offense in the league against right handed pitching. 

The under is 7-0-1 in the Orioles last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 after giving up 2 runs or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL East. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Jimenez's last 4 road starts. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL East. 

The under is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in the Rays last 5 Tuesday games. The under is 3-0-1 in Odorizzi's last 4 on turf. The under is 2-0-2 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 51-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Rich Hill has been having a nice year, but I don't expect him to quiet this Detroit lineup. The Tigers offense is excellent. They slumped for the 3 game series against Cleveland, but they were back in a big way last night. Detroit is going to score a lot of runs this year.

The Oakland offense isn't very good, but Mike Pelfrey has a way of making bad offenses look good. Quite frankly, Pelfrey is a total gas can right now. Pelfrey has been stranding runners at an epic rate and his performances have been much worse than his pitching lines would indicate. Pelfrey is going to get crushed soon. You just can't count on leaving the bases loaded constantly as he has done this year.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Cavs and Pistons are playing this series at an extremely slow tempo. The average pace here has been 89.08 possessions so far this series. That's the slowest first round series in the playoffs by a wide margin so far this year. 

The shooting numbers have actually been good in this series or there would have been some very low scoring games. The total has been adjusted downward slightly in this game, but it isn't enough to keep me off the under.

The public is 62% on the over thus far and the line hasn't moved up. 

I had this line projected at 194.5, so I see clear value here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Warriors/Rockets Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors haven't shot the ball all that well in this series so far. Stephen Curry is expected back for this game, and I think he gives this Warriors team a major shot in the arm. The tempo is always going to be quick when these two teams meet, and there should be a lot of free throws attempted here.

The public is 67% on the under at this time, but the line is moving up, which is a good sign of sharp money on the over. 

The Rockets defense isn't very good, and the Warriors obviously have the best offense in the league. Golden State should be ready for a big game offensively. Houston will get to the line more at home. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The Los Angeles Angels offense is very weak outside of Mike Trout. Trout is obviously a stud, but there is very little help for him in this lineup. Seattle has gotten a little better on offense this year, but they still have holes in their lineup. 

Wade Miley has been hit hard this year, but he has a long history that suggests he is better than his numbers this year appear. Matt Shoemaker is much better at home.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and there isn't a better under umpire in the game than him. Miller has a massive strike zone and he loves to ring batters up.

A very interesting note here: both of these pitchers have much better splits in day games in their career vs. night games. Wade Miley has a 3.41 ERA in day games (4.27 at night). Matt Shoemaker has a 2.72 ERA in day games (3.94 at night). 

The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.3 or higher. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. 

The under is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of the series. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 40-0 angle. 

Take the under big. TOP Play of the Week. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Eickhoff and Peralta start for the Phillies and Brewers here. Eickhoff has slightly deceptive stuff, but he should regress to the mean after an excellent start. The Brewers still have several good bats in their lineup.

Wily Peralta is a mess right now. Peralta has spoken recently about his loss of confidence, and he is putting people on base at an amazingly high rate. 

I'm not high on either starter, and then the bullpens are just awful. These are two of the five worst bullpens in baseball. 

Jim Wolf is the umpire here and he rates an over umpire with a smaller than average strike zone. 

The over is 7-1 in Peralta's last 8 starts. The over is 9-2-2 in Wolf's last 13 behind home plate. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night 100% CRUSHER* The Portland Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers meet in game 3 of their series on Saturday night. 

Los Angeles completely shut down Portland's offense in the first two games of the series. Based on both this series so far this year and the past encounters, it appears that Chris Paul is just a very tough matchup for Damian Lillard. Lillard has had a difficult time getting things going against Paul in the past. 

One thing that few realize is how good this Clippers defense is this year. The Clippers rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are tied with Golden State in his measure. 

There has been one game all year between these two teams (in 6 meetings) that has gone over this total and that was game one of this series based on 3 late tough 3 pointers falling in the last minute of a blowout.

The tempo of this series has been relatively slow and that should continue.

The under is 6-0 in the Blazers last 6 Saturday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. An 18-0 angle. Take the under.  

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Chase Field roof will be open for this game, and that's very important. Chase Field is a hitter's paradise with the roof open because of the dry heat. The ball flies extremely well in these conditions.

Juan Nicasio takes on Rubby De La Rosa here. Nicasio had a great spring, but he has been shaky in his last couple games, and this is his toughest spot of the year thus far.

De La Rosa has been much worse when pitching at Arizona than anywhere else. I believe that is because he really struggles when the roof is open at Chase Field. De La Rosa has a very high 5.58 ERA at Chase Field in his career. 

The over is 6-0 in the Pirates last 6 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a right handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 7-0-1 in De La Rosa's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs. the NL Central. A 37-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Saturday NBA Fast CASH* The Charlotte Hornets couldn't have possibly played worse defense in the first two games of this series. Miami put on an absolute shooting clinic. The Heat scored 1.35 points per possession over the first two games. To put that in perspective, Golden State was the most efficient offense in the NBA in the regular season. They averaged 1.12 points per possession. 

Miami can't keep shooting the ball that well every game. Charlotte should dig deep in this one, especially with it being at home. 

Additionally, the pace of this series has been the single slowest pace of any series in the NBA playoffs. If that continues, and shooting percentages normalize, this total is far too high.

Look for a return to normal here. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers have one of the best lineups in the American League. Cleveland has an improved lineup this year, and they are facing a pitcher who is clearly in decline in Anibal Sanchez.

Corey Kluber has some troubling signs in his peripherals. I still believe Kluber is a good pitcher, but he's definitely not at the level he was a couple years ago. It's important to note though that even when Kluber was pitching at his best, Detroit was a team that gave him a lot more trouble than the average team. Kluber has a 4.72 ERA in his career against Detroit.

Anibal Sanchez is definitely not the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Sanchez doesn't have the same strike out pitches and his ERA and other indicators have dropped off severely in the last two years. 

We have a good over umpire here in Adrian Johnson. 

The over is 6-0 in Johnson's last 6 games involving the Indians. The over is 6-0 in Sanchez's last 6 home starts. The over is 5-1 in Kluber's last 6 starts vs. the Tigers. A 17-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Cavs/Pistons Total DOMINATION* The Pistons and Cavs have shot the ball extremely well from 3 point range in the first two games in this series. The first game it was Detroit knocking down everything from long range. Last game it was Cleveland. I would expect some normalized shooting numbers in this game.

Cleveland initially pushed the tempo with Lue as their head coach, but they have slowed things down of late. The average pace of 91 possessions through the first two games of this series shows that this has largely been a halfcourt battle. 

I think this total is posted a few points too high based on the high shooting numbers from the first couple games. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Thursday's MLB BEST Bet* The Detroit Tigers don't have great hitters at the bottom of the order, but from one through five in the order no one is better in all of baseball. Kansas City has a group of very professional hitters who make you work and don't beat themselves.

Mike Pelfrey isn't a good pitcher at all, and I'll be very surprised if he can silence the KC bats like Jordan Zimmermann did last night. Edinson Volquez is better, but I still don't see him as a top flight starter.

The career numbers are staggering when it comes to the pitchers vs. the opposition here. The Tigers have a great .391 OBP against Volquez. The Royals have an amazing .427 OBP against Pelfrey.

The over is 40-18-4 in Detroit's last 62 road games. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 between these two teams. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks meet in a get away game early Thursday afternoon. Johnny Cueto and Shelby Miller are on the mound in this one.

Shelby Miller is off to a bad start this year, but I do believe Miller is a much better pitcher than he has shown so far this year. Miller has a spectacular 2.66 ERA in day games (3.60 at night).

Johnny Cueto has a sparkling 2.58 ERA in day games in his career (3.74 at night). Cueto's best month of the year is April as well.

We are likely to see some regulars sitting out with this being a get away day game. This is a big pitcher's park, and both teams have solid defenses. 

The under is 15-3 in the last 18 meetings between these two. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller has been one of the very best under umpires in the game for many years in a row. He loves to punch out guys, and he should get plenty of chances in this game. 

Zack Greinke is off to a slow start, but he will pitch well again this year. Greinke has a stellar 1.96 ERA in more than 36 innings with Miller behind home plate. Madison Bumgarner has a tremendous 1.80 ERA in his 20 innings with Miller behind the dish.

Greinke has a 1.78 ERA pitching at San Francisco. Bumgarner has a 2.54 ERA against Arizona in more than 100 innings. 

The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he has traditionally been one of the very best over umpires in the business. Both Carlos Martinez and Kyle Hendricks have struggled against the opposing lineup in this one. 

Chicago's offense is one of the best in baseball. It's a deep lineup, and one that will make pitchers work very hard this year. St. Louis' offense isn't up to that same level, but they are certainly better than the average lineup.

The posted total here is extremely low. While get away day games can be good for the under, that hasn't been the case in Holbrook's games. The over is 39-13-3 in Holbrook's last 55 Wednesday games behind the plate. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Celtics/Hawks CASH* The Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics played to a 102-101 final in Game one. Boston's shooting woes kept that game from being higher scoring. Both Boston and Atlanta love to push the pace, so there's no doubt that the tempo will be quick here. 

Avery Bradley is the Celtics best defender, and it isn't even close. Atlanta's guards will get more open looks with Bradley out with an injury today. The Celtics Isiah Thomas had a bad game one as far as shooting, but he should be better tonight.

We have three overs referees assigned for this game including the single best over referee in the game in Scott Foster. Expect a quick whistle and plenty of free throws. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat did play at a slightly quicker pace at the end of the season, but they still ranked among the ten slowest teams in the league in the last month of the year. Dwyane Wade has long preferred a slow tempo and this Heat team is likely to try to slow the game back down in the playoffs. Charlotte has a slightly slower than average tempo as well. 

Miami ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Charlotte ranks 9th. Only one of the four meetings in the regular season went over this posted total. The playoffs usually bring better defense and a slower tempo. 

I think this one is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres offense might be the worst in all of baseball. This is a terrible lineup in every way. They have no stars, and they have very little depth. They'll be up against a good young pitcher in Patrick Corbin. I think Corbin will have a very nice season this year. 

The Arizona lineup isn't very good outside of Paul Goldschmitt either. They have a bad bottom of the order.

These teams played a 14 inning game on Saturday night. I think that means both Corbin and Robbie Erlin will pitch deep into the game to save the bullpen. Since I like both of these lefties pretty well that's a good thing. 

Doug Eddings is a great under umpire, and he's behind the dish here. Eddings has the biggest strike zone of any umpire in the majors. The under is a whopping 37-16-5 in Eddings last 58 Sunday games behind home plate. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Colby Lewis at home is always worth at least an over lean. Lewis has been outright awful at home in the last few years. He routinely has an ERA north of 5 here. He'll be facing an excellent Orioles offense in this game as well. Baltimore is going to put up a lot of runs this year.

Yovani Gallardo is a veteran who isn't a bad pitcher, but he also isn't dominant in any way. The Texas lineup can put up runs especially when playing at home. The middle of this order is a good one. 

Pat Hoberg is behind the plate and he has a small strike zone, so he'll pinch the zone on both pitchers. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* The Minnesota Twins and the Los Angeles Angels meet Saturday afternoon in Minnesota. The Twins got their first win of the season last night in a 5-4 contest. 

Jered Weaver starts for the Angels and in the past that was always a good thing. Weaver is no longer the same pitcher though. Weaver throws 80 mph fastballs and has some terrible peripheral numbers. In 2014, Weaver had a 4.70 ERA on the road. Last year, Weaver had a 6.01 ERA on the road. 

Ricky Nolasco isn't a particularly good pitcher, and he's been particularly bad when pitching at Target Field. Nolasco has a 4.89 ERA at Target Field in his career. Nolasco has been hit hard by the Angels also. This Angels lineup has a tremendous .356 average against Nolasco all time.

John Tumpane is the umpire here and he's a slight over umpire which helps the cause as well.

The over is 6-1 in Weaver's last 7 starts vs. Minnesota. The over is 20-6-1 in the last 27 meetings between these two in Minnesota. Take the over big. TOP RATED Play

*4 Star NBA Playoffs Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Toronto Raptors ranked 11th in the league in defensive efficiency. While Toronto was 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, the Pacers were way down at number 23. 

In the NBA playoffs, we often see the tempo slow down a great deal. It makes a lot of sense because so much more is on the line. Additionally, the defense usually picks up. Indiana has been playing relatively fast this year, but Toronto at the second slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Raptors should be able to control the tempo on their home floor.

While about 70% of the public bets so far are on the over, the line here has been gradually dropping. That's a good sign of sharp money on the under in this one. 

This total is a few points too high. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Giants/Dodgers Friday Night CASH* It's Madison Bumgarner vs. Clayton Kershaw once again. We've been treated to this matchup a lot here early in the season. Bumgarner and Kershaw bring out the best in each other, and that's why this posted total is so low. While I'm not usually keen on betting under this low of a number, I still think it's a good value.

Bumgarner has an amazing 2.12 career ERA at Dodger Stadium. Kershaw has a career 1.57 ERA against the Giants. He has never had a yearly ERA higher than 2.25 against San Francisco. The Giants hitters have a miserable .199 on base percentage against Kershaw.

Both of these guys are great at pitching deep into the game, and this should be a great low scoring game.

The under is a whopping 21-5-2 in Kershaw's last 28 starts vs. the Giants. The under is 12-3-1 in MadBum's last 16 starts vs. the Dodgers and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts against the Dodgers. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller has been the single most reliable under umpire for me in the past few seasons. Miller has a massive strike zone that pitchers love and hitters constantly get frustrated by. This one is a get away day game in the early afternoon. It's likely that some of the better hitters will sit this game out. That combined with the strong under umpire here makes this one a play for me.

Wily Peralta is a wild card. Peralta has pitched well in day games in the past though, and he has Miller behind the dish here. Jaime Garcia has been brilliant at home throughout his career, and he has been amazing against Milwaukee as well. Garcia has a 2.90 ERA in more than 100 career innings against Milwaukee. He has a 2.70 ERA in his career at home.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays offense isn't impressive. Tampa Bay is going to be shutdown by good pitchers a lot this year. I believe Danny Salazar is on the verge of breaking out and becoming an excellent starter. He has all the necessary tools. Salazar dominated Tampa Bay on the road last year, and I think he'll pitch well again here.

Chris Archer's career numbers against Cleveland aren't very good, but those are misleading. None of those starts came last year when Archer took it to the next level. Also, one terrible start skewed his numbers against the Tribe, and that was in his rookie season. Archer is definitely one of the best pitchers in the American League, and he's been at his best early in the season over the course of his career.

Mike Winters is a bit of an under umpire, so that's a nice boost, and this one is a get away day game, which means some solid hitters may be sitting this game out. 

The under is 4-0-2 in the Rays last 6 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games. The under is 3-0-2 in their last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0-1 in Salazar's last 6 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 on turf. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Minnesota Timberwolves have plenty of scorers, and they should be able to score at will against a Pelicans team that is giving up almost 1.19 points per possession in their last 3 contests. Neither of these teams have anything to play for in this game, and I think that definitely is a positive for the over. The over is hitting at a 59% clip in NBA final games of the season in the past five years. No defense here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Toronto Raptors are sitting their best players tonight, but I still don't expect them to have any trouble scoring against the Nets. Brooklyn has been the worst defense in the NBA by a huge margin in the past 10 games. Brooklyn's tempo has picked up as well, and I don't see Toronto slowing the pace down with their backups tonight. Brooklyn is allowing 1.20 points per possession in their last three games. 

The over is 13-4 in the Nets last 17 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games overall. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* These two offenses are really hitting the ball well in this series so far, and I see plenty of reason to believe that will continue in the series finale. Ubaldo Jimenez has a career 5.90 ERA at Fenway Park. Jimenez has a poor 4.69 ERA in April in his career as well, so he is a slow starter.

Joe Kelly has a career 4.65 ERA in the first half of the season (it is 3.48 in the second half), and the Red Sox starter has had serious problems against Baltimore. Kelly started three games against Baltimore last year, and he had a 7.71 ERA in those games. 

Big innings are always very possible with these two lineups, and these two starting pitchers have been victimized by those huge innings frequently in the past. 

The over is 3-0-1 in the Orioles last 4 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0-1 in the Red Sox last 5 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The over is 8-0 in Kelly's last 8 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL East. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in Kelly's last 6 starts after the Red Sox allowed 5 runs or more last game. A 31-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners host the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night. Derek Holland had three bad outings against Seattle last year. Before that, he had been dominant against Seattle. Holland has quality stuff, and he has been lights out when pitching in Seattle. Holland has a career 2.39 ERA in Seattle. 

Wade Miley seems like a nice fit for Safeco. Miley is a fly ball pitcher and that's a good thing in a place with a big outfield like this one. Boston's Fenway Park hurt Miley last year, and he should fare much better in Seattle. 

The Rangers lineup is badly banged up right now, and Seattle's lineup is good in the middle, but it isn't very deep.

Doug Eddings is the umpire here, and no umpire has a bigger strike zone than Eddings. 

The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers offense is going to score a lot of runs this year. A top five of Kinsler, Upton, Cabrera, Martinez, and Martinez is tremendous.

Pittsburgh's offense is an underrated offense. Obviously Andrew McCutchen is great, but Marte and Polanco are quickly turning into stars as well. The Pirates lineup is a very deep one.

Juan Nicasio has looked good this year so far, but facing this Tigers lineup is a very stiff test. I don't think he'll fare very well here. Anibal Sanchez isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago. The Pirates lineup will test him throughout.

The over is 8-0 in the Tigers last 8 vs. the NL Central. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games. The over is 5-0 in Sanchez's last 5 home starts. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 34-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Brooklyn Nets couldn't care less right now. Brooklyn is definitely playing out the string. Brooklyn is playing the worst defense in the NBA in the past month and it isn't even close. Brooklyn is allowing 1.14 points per possession in the past month. The Lakers are second worst at 1.12 points per possession. Clearly, Brooklyn is putting forth almost zero effort on defense now.

Brooklyn is without Brook Lopez and Thad Young for their final games. The Nets have played at a much faster tempo without these guys this year.

Washington will likely be without John Wall and Bradley Beal here, but they still have guys who can score. Morris was a key pickup, and he's been hot of late. Sessions and Thornton are pushing the pace in the Wizards backcourt as well. 

The early sharp money is piling in on the over here, and I have to agree with that. When these two met last week, the final was 121-103. With neither team caring to play defense, this should be very high as well. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cubs and Diamondbacks play their series finale on Sunday afternoon. Chase Field is a great hitters park with the roof open, but that advantage for the hitters goes away when the roof closes. The roof will be closed for this game.

Jake Arrieta's run in the last couple months of the season last year was epic. Arrieta was truly out of this world good during that run. He started right where he left off with an amazing first start this year. Arrieta's cutter is tremendous, and his command of all of his pitches is a big strength. The Diamondbacks lineup has a career .185 average against Arrieta.

Shelby Miller had a bad first outing, but that was with the roof open, and Miller was excellent last season. The Cubs lost a key bat in Schwarber when he went down earlier this week. Chicago's offense will still be very good, but I think Miller's raw stuff should slow them down a bit.

The under is 10-0-2 in Arrieta's last 12 Sunday starts. The under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 Sunday games. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jeff Locke starts for the Pirates here. Locke is a below average starter. He can log some innings, but his stuff just isn't very good. He struggles to put guys away. 

Tim Melville makes his major league debut on Sunday for the Reds. Melville hasn't been a major prospect in the past, and I'm not very high on his chances of shutting down an above average offense like Pittsburgh's in his first start.

Joe West is the umpire in this one, and that helps this play a lot. West is an umpire that likes to shrink the strike zone and tick off the pitchers. West should frustrate both guys, and I see him being a tough umpire for a new starter like Melville to draw in their debut.

Look for both teams to get a lot of runners on base. As long as they can cash in a decent amount of chances, this one should go over.

The over is 5-0-1 in Locke's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in the Reds last 6 home games vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0-1 in West's last 5 Sunday games behind home plate. A 15-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies meet on Saturday night. The weather here is a big part of the equation. The wind will be blowing in from center at 20-25 mph through this game. This is a pitcher's park to start with, and with that kind of wind it will be tough on the hitters.

Bartolo Colon has a good history against the Phillies, and this Phillies lineup is a mess outside of a couple guys. Maikel Franco is questionable for this one with an injury, and he is their biggest hitting star. 

Vincent Velasquez is going to be a very good big league pitcher. He has tremendous stuff and I give him a good chance to pitch well here. The Mets offense is solid, but they aren't spectacular.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Bill Miller is arguably the best under umpire in baseball. He has been the single best under umpire for me in the past five years. Miller has a huge strike zone and he loves to ring people up. 

Chris Sale is one of the top five most dominant pitchers in the game, and he should fare very well with Miller behind the dish. The Indians start Cody Anderson. Anderson is only mediocre, but I'm not convinced the White Sox offense is all that good.

The weather here will be helpful with a slight wind blowing in and chilly temperatures. US Cellular can be a very good hitter park in the summer when the ball is carrying, but that won't be the case here.

With Miller behind the plate, I like this to be a very low scoring game. The under is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings in Chicago between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* C.C. Sabathia and Mike Pelfrey start for the Yankees and Tigers in this game. Sabathia's worst month of the year in his career has been April, and it isn't even close. Pelfrey's second worst month of the year is April. We have two slow starters in this one.

I took the over in Friday's game between these two and was burned when the Yankees sat just about everyone and then couldn't score a run. They should be able to put up runs just fine against Pelfrey and a poor bullpen here. Detroit is excellent against left handed pitching and Sabathia is certainly in decline. 

Cold weather actually hasn't been bad for overs in the past 10 years. The wind will be blowing out at 20 mph in this one. Both offenses are stacked. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Friday Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in the second game of this series. 

Matt Cain isn't the same pitcher he used to be. Last year, he had an ERA of 5.20 at AT&T Park, which is obviously a pitcher-friendly park. Cain will face a very good Dodgers lineup here, and I don't think he'll fare very well. Cain had a 7.71 ERA in Spring Training this year. 

At the same time, this Giants lineup is much improved. They have some young talent in Panik and Belt, and those guys are coming into their own. Hunter Pence is healthy and swinging the bat very well. They'll be up against Ross Stripling, who will be making his MLB debut here. Stripling has never faced anyone above Double A, and his stuff is average. This is a tough spot for him.

Two very good offenses and two big question marks starting on the mound. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs lit up the scoreboard last night, and I like the chances of this being a high scoring game as well. Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open and the roof is listed as being open. I waited until the official word came from the Diamondbacks on the status of the roof for making this pick. The ball flies much better at Chase Field with an open roof.

The Cubs lineup is absolutely stacked. Ray is nothing more than an average pitcher. The DBacks bullpen is below average right now. Jason Hammel isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't a guy who will completely shutdown many offenses. 

The over is 7-1 in Hammel's last 8 starts. The over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two. Take the over. 

*3 Star TGIF MLB Early Money* The Detroit Tigers and the New York Yankees have two of the best lineups in baseball. Both of these teams are going to score a lot of runs this year. 

This is Detroit's home opener. The weather is going to be nasty for this one. The high here is expected to be 39 degrees. You might think that would be bad for scoring, but that's not what the numbers say. Since 2005, the over has gone 59-47 in MLB games with a temperature of 40 degrees or lower. 

Severino pitched great last year for the Yankees, but he is still an inconsistent youngster. He had some batted ball luck last year that will tough to replicate. On the other side, Jordan Zimmermann steps out of the weak NL East and into the American League, where he'll face much deeper lineups. I like Zimmermann overall, but his upside is far more limited this year in my opinion.

The over is 6-1 in the Tigers last 7 following an off day. Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves offense will be one of the worst in baseball this year. The Washington offense is good, but they aren't elite. Washington has an elite pitching staff. The Nationals rotation and bullpen are top notch. 

Stephen Strasburg hasn't been what some hyped him up to being a few years ago, but his peripheral stats aren't bad either. Strasburg has swing and miss type stuff, and the Braves have a lot of free swingers in this lineup. 

Bud Norris starts for Atlanta and he should benefit from moving to a pitcher-friendly park this year.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here, and the under is a stunning 194-138 since 2005 in Kulpa's games behind the plate. He consistently has a huge strike zone and that is a big help in this one.

The under is 7-0-1 in the Nats last 8 games. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following an off day. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 vs. the NL East. The under is 6-0 in Strasburg's last 6 road starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0-1 in the Braves last 7 games. The under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Atlanta. The under is 5-0 in Kulpa's last 5 games involving the Braves. A 64-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners square off in a series finale in Arlington on Wednesday afternoon. I had Seattle in the first game of this series and that was a brutal loss as the Rangers won 3-2 despite only getting one hit all game. Seattle bounced back and thumped Texas 10-2 on Tuesday. 

Colby Lewis has been a terrible pitcher in Arlington for quite some time. Lewis has an ERA of 5.50 at home in his last two seasons. He also has an ERA of 5.34 in day games. Seattle should get plenty of scoring chances here. Wade Miley has been inconsistent and this Rangers lineup is pretty solid from top to bottom, especially against lefties. 

The Seattle bullpen is decent, but the Texas bullpen is awful. The wind is blowing out at 20 mph, which is key in this park. 

The over is 38-15-3 in Lewis' last 56 home starts. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* Scott Kazmir was roughed up in Spring Training this year. I'm not one who puts too much stock in Spring Training overall, but Kazmir's velocity was way down and that isn't a good sign. The Padres offense isn't all that good, but they should get some scoring chances against Kazmir if his velocity continues to be down.

James Shields is likely past the peak of his career. Shields gives up too many baserunners for me to like him too much. The Dodgers offense showed last night what they are capable of, and Shields hasn't been very good at PetCo Park in his time with the Padres.

This is an extremely low posted total. The changes at PetCo have made it less of a pitcher's park than in the past, and these two pitchers are hardly Kershaw and Bumgarner. A 3-3 game ensures a win with a total of only 6.5. 

The over is 12-3-1 in Shields' last 16 home starts. Take the over here. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies meet at Chase Field on Tuesday night. Chase Field is one of the very best parks for hitters when the roof is open, and the roof is projected to be open for this one with nice weather in Arizona right now. 

The Colorado Rockies should have some high scoring games this year when you factor in their strong lineup and terrible pitching. Colorado has a poor rotation and a ridiculously bad bullpen as well. 

Both teams have several power hitters and the ball should fly very well at Chase Field in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Sam Holbrook has been the #1 best bet for over bettors as far as MLB umpires are concerned in the last 5 years. The over is 172 and 132 in his games. Holbrook will make the pitchers put it down the heart of the plate a lot more than most guys will. Combine that with the fact that the wind is expected to be blowing out at 25 to 30 mph during the game, and this number is too low. 

Chris Young is a fly ball pitcher and Syndergaard has been less dominant on the road. 

The over is 6-0 in the Mets last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0-1 in Syndergaard's last 7 road starts. The over is 4-0 in the Royals last 4 following a win. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays were the single best team in the majors last year against left handed pitching. They are going to be amazing against lefties again this year. While I think Drew Smyly is a decent pitcher, he'll likely have a hard time shutting down this offense. 

R.A. Dickey hasn't been good at Tampa Bay in recent years. Dickey had a 5.00 ERA in 3 starts at Tampa Bay in 2014. In 2015, Dickey had an even worse ERA of 7.71 in two starts. He is at his worst in April and doesn't like the conditions at the dome in Tampa. 

The over is 7-0-1 in the Rays last 8 games during game 2 of a series. The over is 4-0-1 in Dickey's last 5 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rays last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 4-0-3 in the last 7 games between these teams. A 22-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best offenses in baseball. They also have a very poor starting rotation led by Chris Tillman. Tillman shouldn't be an ace, but the Orioles have made him one by default since they are so thin and Kevin Gausman is injured. 

Minnesota overachieved last year, and the Twins have a terrible rotation and bullpen. Ervin Santana definitely doesn't have the stuff to be an ace at this point in his career. The Twins bullpen should be one of the worst in the majors this year.

Both offenses should see a bunch of scoring opportunities in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Opening Sunday MONEYMAKER* The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates get things underway for this year's MLB action. Adam Wainwright hasn't pitched in a regular season game since last April. He struggled in Spring Training. Pittsburgh has hit him better than just about any other team in the majors. The Pirates expected starting lineup here has a .308 average all time against Wainwright.Francisco Liriano is a good pitcher, but he isn't a top of the league type of game. Liriano has had trouble against the Cardinals as well. St Louis hitters have a .343 on base percentage against Liriano.Both of these offenses are pretty good. These pitchers are quality pitchers, but there are real question marks on both here, and the total is only 6 runs.

The over is 15-4-5 in Wainwright's last 24 starts against Pittsburgh. The over is 12-3-1 in Liriano's last 16 home starts. Take the over.  

*5 Star NCAA Tournament Game of the Year* The Oklahoma Sooners and Villanova Wildcats met earlier this year on December 7. The final score in that game was 78-55 with the Sooners winning. That game was on a neutral floor. 

Now, these two will play again in the Final Four. This game is played at NRG Stadium in Houston where the shooting backdrops are notoriously awful. Unders have ruled at NRG Stadium in the past, and when the game means so much, as this one obviously does, this usually leads to better defense and a slower tempo.

Even with normalized tempos for both teams from the regular season, the total here should be something like 146 points or so. The oddsmakers threw out a 150, which shocked me. After an adjustment for where the game is played and the importance of the game, I think 140 points would make more sense than 150 for this posted total.

Both of these teams are tremendous on defense. They both rank in the top 13 in the country. Villanova is playing at a slow tempo this year, and I don't think they'll let this turn into an all out track meet. 

This is my NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. Take the under. *Please note that I expect this line to drop, so play this line as early as possible. Also, while this is a very big play for me, use good bankroll management. Thanks and good luck.*

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers are sitting out Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and J.J. Redick in this one. Blake Griffin is already down with an injury and Paul Pierce is out with an injury as well. The Clippers offense will look a whole lot different on Thursday night than it normally does. 

Oklahoma City has been very good of late. The Thunder have been putting up a lot of points, but they are also playing very well on defense, especially on their home floor. 

This is a high total considering who all isn't playing in this game. The Clippers and Thunder both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Oklahoma City should coast to a win and their defense should be good enough to keep this one low enough scoring. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors are actually both in tough scheduling spots here. That makes me believe this game could be lower scoring than expected. A huge key for me in this game is the public is taking the over at an 85% clip and the total has dropped two full points from the open. That's a very strong signal of some sharp money on the under. 

Utah has to know the only chance they have here is to play some stall ball. They want no part of a high scoring game with Golden State. Both defenses rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past month. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Hawks actually have the single best defensive efficiency mark in the NBA in the past month. Atlanta is winning games with some tremendous defense right now. 

Toronto plays at the third slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Raptors will make this a game played in the halfcourt. Toronto's defense is much improved from last year, and that's the biggest reason the Raptors are the second ranked team in the Eastern Conference right now. 

The public money here is 83% on the over, but this number has dropped from the opener. I always like signs like this one. This is an anti-public play that the bookmakers are clearly respecting. 

The under is 5-0 in Toronto's last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Atlanta's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 17-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Houston Rockets go to Cleveland to take on the Cavs tonight. The Cavs will be without LeBron James. Cleveland has been a mess on the offensive end when James hasn't played in the last couple years. In fact, in LeBron's last 15 games sitting out, the under is 12-3. The over is getting almost 80% of the public bets, but the line has gradually moved down today, which is certainly a nice indicator of sharp money on the under. Houston needs games like this one with their playoff spot being very questionable. This one is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*5 Star Vegas 8 TOP Play Total SMASHER* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs always look to push the tempo. They should get their wish in this game. Occasionally, you'll find a team that simply plays to the preferred pace of their opponent, and East Tennessee State definitely looks like one of those teams. 

In non-conference action, East Tennessee State played a 103-90 game against Green Bay and a 94-73 game against UNC Wilmington. Louisiana Tech ranks in the top 50 in the country in terms of tempo, and the Bulldogs will look to get in transition in this game. LA Tech is good at getting to the free throw line, and East Tennessee State has been fouling too much down the stretch this year.

East Tennessee State averaged more than 1.11 points per possession in conference play this year, which is great offensive efficiency. LA Tech was a very good 1.087 points per possession also. 

This is the first round of the Vegas 8 Tournament and most of these smaller postseason tournaments often see higher scores early in the tournament. I expect a lot of offense in this one. Take the over big. TOP RATED Play. 

*3 Star North Carolina/Notre Dame Totals CASH* The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with a spot in the Final Four on the line. These two teams played twice during the regular season and Notre Dame won 80-76 at home, while North Carolina won 78-47 on a neutral floor in the ACC Tournament. In Notre Dame's comeback win at home, the Fighting Irish scored 31 points at the free throw line (out of 38 attempts). North Carolina doesn't foul much overall and I can't imagine Notre Dame getting to the line that much in this game. 

Notre Dame should know their only chance to win this game is to stall and try to keep the score down. They simply can't get out in transition with North Carolina and expect to have a chance to win here. The Fighting Irish should be running the clock down every time they get the ball.

With 125 and 156 being the totals during the regular season games, I believe this one is lined too high. North Carolina's defense is underrated, and Notre Dame should be planing very slowly. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA TGIF Play of Day* The Atlanta Hawks defense has been the best in the NBA in the past month. For the year, Atlanta ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency behind only the Spurs. In the past month, their defense has been slightly better than the Spurs. Atlanta still plays at a relatively quick pace, but the Hawks offense is much less efficient than they were last year. 

Milwaukee is playing at the slowest tempo of any team outside of Utah in the past month. The Bucks offense struggles without Mayo and Carter-Williams. The Bucks will work to slow this game down as much as possible.

Another strong sign is this total dropping despite 2/3 of the public bets on this game coming in on the over. I always like to see a line move that goes against the public. 

The under is 6-2 in the Hawks last 8 home games. The under is 4-1 in the Bucks last 5. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB TGIF Total DOMINATION* These two teams really play at a slow tempo. This game should be played at an extremely slow pace. Notre Dame is 333rd out of 351 teams in college basketball in their offensive tempo. Wisconsin ranks 349th out of 351 in terms of tempo. 

Wisconsin has a way of turning almost any game into a low scoring defensive battle. While Notre Dame's offense is good, I don't think the Fighting Irish will find very many open looks against a good Badgers defense. Wisconsin's offense has been suffering late in the year as Nigel Hayes has really slumped. 

This is a game that I see playing to a pace of 57 or 58 possessions, which would be among the slowest in the entire NCAA Tournament. Neither team fouls much, so that's certainly helpful. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats have the 7th best defense in the nation in terms of efficiency. Villanova also prefers to slow the pace of the game down. Villanova is heavily reliant on outside shooting, and that can be a problem in these neutral site games. 

Miami also likes to play at a slow tempo, and the Hurricanes are more than comfortable playing in a low scoring contest. 

It's important to note that neither of these teams commits many fouls. They are good at defending without committing fouls which can quickly add points to the total.

I expect a close game in this one, and I think the two defenses will have a slight advantage over the two offenses. I had this number at 138. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The New York Knicks tempo has been very slow under Kurt Rambis. They are also working quite a bit harder on defense than they were earlier this year. New York is playing at better than league average on defense in the past month. 

Chicago's defense is better than league average as well, and their offense ranks 25th in the NBA in efficiency. The Bulls offense just can't seem to put it all together this year, and injuries have really held the team back.

The first two meetings this year finished at 198 and 189. This has the highest posted total of any game between these two in the past three years. 

The under is 20-7 in the Knicks last 27. The under is 5-2 in the Bulls last 7 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Duquesne Dukes can really push the pace of the game. Duquesne just played a 120-112 game against Nebraska Omaha. The score in the second half alone of that game was 80-69! That's mind boggling scoring, and in these smaller postseason tournaments you can get some very high scoring games between teams who prefer to push the pace.

Morehead State showed they were willing to run with Siena in their first postseason game, and that gives me enough reason to play the over here. Morehead State fouls almost as much as anyone in the country, and Duquesne fouls more than average as well. I had this lined at 157 points. 

The over is 4-0 in Duquesne's last 4 games after allowing 90 points or more last game. The over is 4-0 in Morehead State's last 4. The over is 4-0 in Morehead State's last 4 non-conference games. A 12-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Maryland Terrapins offense has been up and down this year. They got on track nicely last game in the second half against South Dakota State. Hawaii has an underrated player in Stefan Jankovic who could be tough for Maryland's defense to matchup with

Hawaii's defensive numbers are good this year, but the best teams they played this year put up a lot of points on them. They allowed 82 points against Texas Tech and 87 against Oklahoma. 

Hawaii is extremely aggressive on defense, and that should send Maryland to the line a lot in this one. Maryland is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Oklahoma Sooners love to push the tempo, and here they get to play against a VCU team that prefers to play fast as well. Oklahoma will get out in transition in front of a friendly crowd in Oklahoma City. The Sooners shoot 43% from long distance as a team, which is second best in the nation. Buddy Hield is locked in, and the Sooners present several matchup issues for the VCU defense.

Neither of these teams is very good at keeping opponents off the glass, so that should present several second chance opportunities in this one. 

Plenty of pace and scorers all over the floor should equal an over in this one. 

I had this game at 152 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Saturday Tourney Late Night BAILOUT* The North Carolina Tar Heels always want to push the tempo. Providence is generally a team that likes to get out in transition when they can as well. 

Both teams hold key advantages on offense in this game. Kris Dunn is a big guard who should be able to do damage against North Carolina's defense. Not many guards have the kind of size advantage over Carolina's defense that Dunn has, and he should be able to hurt them. On the other side, North Carolina should absolutely dominate on the offensive glass. The Tar Heels are great at getting second chance points, and Providence has struggled there against their best opponents.

Sometimes neutral site games can be bad for the over, but there are a few reasons I like the over here. First, there have been a bunch of whistles so far in the NCAA Tournament. Second, the rims are clearly soft overall in the NCAA Tournament, which helps shooters. Thirdly, both teams are playing in their second game at this venue, and that usually helps shooters as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes are good at controlling the tempo. Gonzaga has been playing to the pace of their opponent more often than not of late. Both of these teams have high quality defenses. I don't think we'll see very many open looks for either team.

The matchup down low of Sabonis for Gonzaga and Poetl for Utah is a tremendous one. I think those two are both good enough on defense to slow the other down more than they are usually slowed down by other opponents. 

This game is played at altitude in Denver where exhaustion can be a factor and we saw Gonzaga's opponent Seton Hall have all sorts of trouble with being winded on Thursday. 

Close game here and I think this total is a few points high. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and New Hampshire Wildcats are both much better on the defensive end than the offensive end of the floor. This is a smaller postseason tournament, but these two teams both prefer a slow tempo, so I don't expect a high scoring game like we have seen in other spots. 

Look for both of these offenses to be inconsistent throughout the course of the game. The slow tempo and poor efficiency should keep this under the posted total. Take the under.  

*4 Star NIT Total DOMINATION* The BYU Cougars host the Virginia Tech Hokies on Friday night. BYU put up 97 points against a very good UAB team a couple days ago. Virginia Tech beat Princeton in overtime a couple days ago. 

Both of these teams prefer to play quickly. While they have some teams who are able to slow them down during the regular season in conference play, they should get their wish to play very fast in this smaller postseason tournament game. 

Virginia Tech is at their best when in transition and attacking the hoop. Virginia Tech gets to the line more often than anyone in the nation (out of 351 teams). BYU is deadly from three-point territory and VA Tech's defense slipped a lot down the stretch against quality teams.

I made this number 167 points. Take the over.