*3 Star Play Under* LSU has what might be the most improved defense in the country. The Tigers rank first in the country in steal percentage on defense. They rank 4th in the country in block percentage defensively. Tari Eason and Efton Reid are elite shot blockers down low for the Tigers. 

Georgia Tech has been a good defense on a yearly basis under Josh Pastner. Georgia Tech has shot really well from three point range so far this year, but they are due for regression in that area. The Yellow Jackets prefer to play slowly as well.

This game is on a neutral court which is also a bonus for the under.

The LSU Tigers have played six straight games that have finished under this total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Illinois Panthers are awful offensively. In 4 of their 8 games against Division I opponents they have scored 46 points or less. They have yet to score more than 62 points against a D I opponent this year.

Butler is 55th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Bulldogs rank 346th in tempo. They will slow things down and make it very tough for Eastern Illinois to score. Butler has shown the willingness to win low scoring battles against lesser opponents like IUPUI and even Saginaw Valley State.

Eastern Illinois plays very slowly as well. They defend the 3 point shot well and could slow Butler down at least for a while.

I had this total several points lower than this.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UTSA Roadrunners and Sam Houston State Bearkats meet at Toyota Center in Houston on Saturday. This is a neutral court game. The under is 28-22 in college basketball games played at Toyota Center.

Neutral court unders have been a strong angle in the past decade. Sam Houston State's defensive numbers are only mediocre, but they have played the #13 toughest slate of offenses this year. The Bearkats were good defensively last year, and they should be solid again this year.

UTSA has been a high scoring team in recent years, but the Roadrunners no longer have Keaton Wallace and Jhivan Jackson who were their big scorers. 

I would expect some poor shooting numbers in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a scorching hot shooting performance. Atlanta made 25/49 3 point field goal attempts in their win. That was the most made three-pointers on record for the Atlanta Hawks franchise. 

The Brooklyn Nets have been much better on defense this year. The primary improvement from them has been their 3 point defense. In fact, the Nets are number one in the NBA in 3 point defense. It isn't even close. The Nets are holding opponents to just 30.5% from 3 point range. No other team in the NBA is allowing less than 32.1% from beyond the arc.

These two teams are both about average in pace in the league. This is a really high total in this year's scoring environment in the NBA.

The Nets have had six straight games finish at 220 points or lower. Recency bias has this number very high because the Hawks have been on fire from three.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The St. John's Red Storm have been in transition on 25% of their offensive possessions this year. That's 4th highest in the country. They'll press and try to get in transition as much as possible. Posh Alexander is very underrated and I think he can have a big game here against this Monmouth team.

Monmouth loves to run and gun under King Rice as well. The Hawks have played a lot of teams who play slowly this year and that has some of their pace stats this year looking a bit skewed. They are the underdog here, and if they want to win they are likely going to have to score quite a few points. They'll look to attack the glass.

Monmouth is shooting 81.5% from the free throw line. The Hawks have multiple guards who make a living at the line. 

St. John's is likely to get quite a few free throws because Monmouth has been among the top 50 in the country in fouls committed the last two years. St. John's is an above average team from the line as well.

Fast paced all the way.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Samford Bulldogs are going to always want to push the pace with Bucky McMillan as their head coach. McMillan wants to use the full court press and create transition opportunities. His teams will attack throughout the game. 

Alabama State's Mo Williams has his team playing very fast as well. The Hornets have already given up more than 90 points three times this year. Their defense isn't good and they put their opponent on the line too often. 

Samford is good at getting second chances on offense. Alabama State is a really bad defensive rebounding team. 

Samford has only played two teams this year who want to run at their pace with them. Those were the Belmont and McNeese State games. Both of those games finished at 158 points. I had this one projected at 155, so I see value.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions were 92nd fastest in the country in average possession length last year. They rank 352nd so far this year. Penn State has played against the 267th toughest slate of defenses (very easy schedule), while they have faced some good offenses. They have actually faced the 67th toughest slate of offenses. The Nittany Lions defense is likely better than their overall numbers appear. The offense is likely a bit worse.

Wagner prefers to play at a slow pace too. The Seahawks struggled badly on offense against Seton Hall (just 0.83 points per possession). They won a 58-44 decision over VCU. 

Penn State should keep the pace slow and win with their defense. Wagner is often reliant on offensive rebounds, but Penn State is an elite defensive rebounding team.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cal State Northridge Matadors are being coached by Trent Johnson right now and he sure has put his stamp on this team as far as their pace of play. Northridge played very fast the last couple years. Not this year! Northridge is averaging 20.3 seconds per possession on offense. That is 354th fastest out of 358 teams in the country. They are playing at a snail's pace. 

Boise State ranks 48th in the country in defensive efficiency. Boise State does a great job protecting the rim (where Northridge tries to go often), and the Broncos are also great on the defensive glass. 

Boise State is the better team here, but they often struggle on offense. The Broncos really miss Derrick Alston who was their go to guy on offense last year. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers have been a huge disappointment this year. They have lost at home to UMKC. They were blown out by 21 points at Liberty in their last game. Cuonzo Martin's team has major issues. They are still a good defense. They rank top 20 in the nation in defending shots attacking the rim. Their offense has been reliant on getting to the free throw line. Eastern Illinois ranks 56th in the nation at defending without fouling.

Eastern Illinois is a bad team. The Panthers have major problems scoring. The Panthers have had 7 games against Division I opponents. They have been held to 56 points or less in 5 of those games. Their last five games against Division I opponents have finished with a total of 125 points or less.

Missouri's length on defense should bother Eastern Illinois. Missouri has already shown they are willing to slow it down with opponents who want to stall. They won 54-37 over Northern Illinois. Eastern Illinois plays an extremely slow pace.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers defense will be elite again this year. They ranked 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency last year. They are 3rd so far this year. Rick Barnes does have a lot of weaknesses, but his teams will fight hard on the defensive end.

Texas Tech isn't as good as they were a few years ago on defense, but this is a still a quality defense. The Red Raiders rank 18th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Texas Tech's offense appears very good on the surface. A closer look shows they have played the single easiest slate of defenses in the nation according to KenPom. They haven't played a defense ranked in the top 75 in the nation all season. They now play a top five defense. 

Tennessee has been a team that goes through long scoring droughts in recent years. I think they'll do the same this year.

This game is at Madison Square Garden. This has been the best under venue any college basketball games are played at. The shooting backdrop is a tough one here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* I had a lean to the under in this game even without weather concerns. With the weather forecast for Buffalo, I have to bet the under here.

The weather forecast calls for 21 mph sustained winds at the start of this game with wind gusts of 30 mph through the game. There is currently about a 60 or 70% chance of snow showers during this game as well. The wind is the key, and the snow would be a nice bonus on top of it.

The Patriots are a run heavy team, but the Bills rank second in the NFL in rushing defense.  Buffalo's offense is best when going through the air, but the wind should make them more conservative and the Pats secondary is elite.

This is a very big divisional game. Divisional unders have been very solid in the long run.

Take the under here. 

*This number has moved down a bit as more people have seen the forecast here. I would still play this game down to 41* 

*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos go to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in a key AFC West matchup on Sunday night. The Chiefs have struggled this year on the whole, but here they are back at the top of the division and coming off a bye week.

Kansas City is laying a pretty big number here. The expectation is for Kansas City to play well off a bye thanks in large part to Andy Reid. I don't disagree with that, but if Kansas City does play from the lead it helps the under here.

When Andy Reid coached teams are home favorites of 6 points or more- the under is a whopping 45-19 since 2005. The Chiefs are in that spot here. 

Kansas City moves much slower when they have the lead. Denver is likely to use the two high safety look and make Mahomes gradually move the ball down the field as well.

The Chiefs defense has quietly been much better in the last few weeks.

The weather calls for sustained winds of 14 mph and gusts of 22 mph for this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats and Wichita State Shockers get together for an intrastate rivalry at Intrust Arena. This is a neutral site arena and that is a net positive for the under.

Kansas State runs pick and roll ball screens on offense 28% of the time. The Wildcats are up against a very tough Wichita State defense here. The Shockers have ranked top 15 in the nation defending pick and roll ball screens in two of the last three seasons. 

Wichita State and Kansas State both prefer to play at a slow pace, and both are clearly better on defense than on offense. 

Wichita State has seen 5 of their 7 games finish at 122 points or lower. Kansas State has seen 3 of their 6 games finish at 126 points or lower. This is the best defense Kansas State has played yet.

Expect a hard fought contest where open shots are tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Lions offense is just dreadful. It is terrible to begin with, and now they are without clearly their best offensive player in De'Andre Swift. How are they going to move the football consistently? I certainly wouldn't want to count on Jared Goff and this terrible roster of receivers. How bad has this Detroit offense been? They haven't topped 19 points in a single game since week one of the season. They are averaging 11.5 points per game in their last four contests.

Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook. Mattison is a solid backup, but he doesn't have the same breakaway capabilities. The Vikings should be playing from the lead here, and I would expect them to keep things more conservative in this one. Zimmer is a coach who does slow the pace and run more with the lead.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Hamilton Tiger Cats and Toronto Argonauts square off in the playoffs on Sunday in Toronto. These two teams know each other very well. This is the most important game between these two in quite some time. Which team will win and move on to the Grey Cup?

The weather should play a factor here. Winds of 15 mph with snow changing to rain are forecast for this game.  That is enough weather to really make a difference. It should make both teams more conservative. The two passing attacks have been inconsistent of late anyways, and now the weather will make it tougher.

Both teams have a good pass rush and Oakman could dominate on the defensive front for Toronto. 

The last 3 games for Hamilton have finished with totals of: 35, 27, and 43 points. 

The last 3 games for Toronto have finished with totals of: 43, 43, and 20 points.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pitt Panthers offense has been fantastic all year. They rank 19th in the nation in yards per play. Pitt has been led by star quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pickett ranks 2nd in PFF passing grade in the country this year. He should be able to rip apart this Wake Forest defense. Wake Forest is 105th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. 

How has the Wake Forest defense fared against the top offenses they have played this year? They allowed 34 points against Louisville. They allowed 55 points against N Carolina. They allowed 48 points against a bad Clemson offense. They gave up 56 points to Army. They allowed 42 against NC State. Pitt ranks as the second best offense they have faced this year. 

Wake Forest ranks 4th in tempo in the country. Sam Hartman has had a special year as well. The Demon Deacons should be able to score quite a few on a Pitt defense that isn't nearly as good as they have been in past seasons. Pitt is 78th in opponent QBR and 58th in passing play success rate allowed. Wake Forest has a whopping 39 plays of 30 yards or more on the season.

Two explosive offenses in what should be an exciting back and forth game. Overtime is a possibility in a game that should be tight as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Merrimack Warriors play a very unique style of basketball. They use a full court press to slow the game down. It's a zone full court press that makes the opponent make a bunch of passes to get the ball upcourt. 

Merrimack is a really tough matchup. The Warriors won 60-58 at UMass Lowell in their last meeting two years ago. These two teams are pretty similar to what they were that season as well. 

Merrimack's offense is very poor in the halfcourt. The Warriors end up with a lot of bad looks late in the shot clock.

UMass Lowell is reliant on getting to the basket. That is extremely tough to do against the Merrimack zone defense. UMass Lowell has improved defensively and they are forcing turnovers at a high rate.

Both teams should have a lot of wasted possession on offense and tough shots late in the clock.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The High Point Panthers have been a consistently weak offense under Tubby Smith. They want to slow the game down, and they are likely to be inefficient on the offensive end. 

High Point's defensive numbers this year don't look too impressive, but they have played some great offenses. In fact, according to KenPom they have faced the 13th toughest slate of offenses thus far. 

High Point held both Georgia State and Furman to 59 points in regulation, and those are two pretty good offenses. 

Elon has allowed 44% on 3 point jumpers from opponents this year. I think that regresses to the mean, and High Point is not a good outside shooting team. 

The pace here should be slow from both teams.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in the Sun Belt Championship on Saturday afternoon. 

The first game between these two got to 54 points, but that was largely because of App State turnovers leading to short fields and quick scores. These are two good under teams on the season. The under is 7-5 in App State's games. The under is 9-3 in Louisiana's games.

Levi Lewis has struggled at QB for Louisiana this year. The App State defense has really been strong at the end of the season. I expect Louisiana to have a conservative game plan and run the football quite a bit here. App State allowed 7.8 points per game in their last four games overall.

Both teams have slowed their tempo down in recent games. I don't see a lot of possessions in this contest. 

The two teams run the ball on 60% and 61% of their offensive plays. A lot of moving clock in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Craig Smith is a very defensive-minded head coach. His teams at Utah State were elite on defense every year. Utah will fight very hard on the defensive end this season. 

Andy Enfield's teams are underrated on the defensive end. This Trojans team has all sorts of length on the floor at all times and they have been great defensively already this year. 

USC ranks 4th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. Utah ranks 14th in the country in effective field goal percentage defense. These are two teams that are much better on the defensive end than the offensive end.

I think open shots will be tough to come by.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions have slowed their tempo down in a big way this season. With new coach Micah Shrewsberry at the helm, the Nittany Lions are using an average of 20.4 seconds of the shot clock each possession. That is 352nd out of 358 teams in the country. 

Penn State has been good at dictating the pace of the game. The Nittany Lions slowed their game against LSU down to a crawl, and LSU is a much better team than Miami. 

Miami plays relatively fast (144th in the nation), but the Hurricanes haven't played a team that plays as slowly as Penn State so far this season. Miami has already played some low scoring contests of late as well.

Penn State has faced the 304th ranked defenses on the season so their offensive numbers are likely skewed a bit too positively on the season so far. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMBC Retrievers are playing much faster under first year head coach Jim Ferry. Ferry wants this team to play even faster than they have so far this year. His history shows that the teams he coaches really want to get up the floor quickly.

UMBC has had trouble scoring on the road, but in their home and neutral site games this year they have scored 85, 91, and 98 points. 

Columbia is a weak defensive team. The Lions have faced terrible offenses so far this year and they have still been overwhelmed. UMBC puts up a ton of 3's, so it is important that every single year under Coach Jim Engles Columbia has been below average in 3 point field goal percentage defense. 

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The La Salle Explorers have played 5 games this year. Only one of those games have gone over this total in regulation (that one was only 140 points). La Salle has played some very weak defensive teams and still has only topped 67 points in regulation once on the year. They have yet to top 70 points in regulation. This La Salle team is severely lacking offensive options.

Temple is a scrappy team under Aaron McKie. They aren't very good on offense, but they work hard and do play pretty good defense. Temple and La Salle are both teams I view as high turnover teams. They should have quite a few wasted possessions through this game.

This is a rivalry game in Philadelphia and I think the intensity level will be high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs offense has been absolutely dreadful all season long. Why do I want to bet the over in this game? They have played a bunch of games on neutral courts which lowers scoring. They also have played much better defenses than they will be playing in this game.

San Diego State hasn't gone up against a defense worse than 166th in the nation in defensive efficiency. All but one of their opponents has a defensive efficiency rank of #103 or better this year so far. What about Long Beach State's defense? They rank 303rd in the nation in defensive efficiency. San Diego State should see more of their shots drop against this terrible defense.

Long Beach State ranks 12th in the nation in tempo on the offensive end. The 49ers are putting up shots quickly. San Diego State likes to play quickly as well.

This is a very low total for a game that should be played at a quick pace.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* This Creighton Blue Jays team isn't very similar to the Creighton teams of the last couple seasons. They lack the long range shooters. The trio of Zegarowski, Mahoney, and Jefferson are all gone for the Blue Jays. 

Creighton also ranks 269th in turnover percentage on offense in the country. They ranked 28th last season. There are a lot more wasted possessions for this team.

The North Dakota State Bison rank 291st in tempo in the country. They'll try to slow this game down to a grind. Creighton has played noticeably slower this year than they did last year as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers have had a major pace change under new coach Ben Johnson. They are playing about 1.5 seconds per possession slower than they did a year ago under Richard Pitino. They also ranked 160th in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They rank 16th in that same statistic this year. 

Pittsburgh ranks 300th in overall tempo. The Panthers have had virtually no offense all season. How bad has it been? Pitt has scored 63 points or less in 5 of their 6 games this year. That's despite facing teams like The Citadel, UNC Wilmington, and Towson. 

Minnesota is the highest ranked defense Pitt has faced so far this season. Minnesota has played some really weak defenses this year, and I think the Golden Gophers offense will struggle this year without Marcus Carr, Gabe Kalschuer, and some other key contributors from last year.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Grambling Tigers have scored 62 points or less in 4 of their 5 games vs. Division I teams this year. They haven't scored more than 74 points in any game all year. 

Norfolk State has played two games on a neutral court so far this year. Both of those games were very low scoring and featured some ugly shooting numbers. Grambling's only game on a neutral floor stayed under the total as well.

The early season neutral court unders have done very well in the long run. This is a neutral court and it is a contest between two teams who have long term not been good long range shooters.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams have been excellent defensively. In fact, in their last 8 games, the Warriors and Clippers rank #1 and #2 in defensive efficiency. These are two well coached defensive teams.

The Warriors and Clippers rank 15th and 16th in tempo in the last 8 games as well, so their pace isn't blazing fast by any means. 

This is an early tipoff on the West Coast and these weekend early tip offs on the West Coast have been very good unders in the past decade. 

Both of these teams are subpar when it comes to creating second chances. I think their initial shots will be covered better than normal in this one as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats have a terrible offense this year. Northwestern ranks 112th in the nation in success rate on offense. The Wildcats have been able to break a long play here and there, but that should be very difficult to do against an Illinois defense that has been great at preventing big plays. Illinois is 3rd in the nation in defensive explosiveness allowed. They have a great safety in Kerby Joseph, and Walters has been a great defensive coordinator for the Fighting Illini.

Illinois is very run heavy on offense. Northwestern will give up yards here, but they have been preventing big plays as well. The Wildcats rank 14th in the nation in defensive explosiveness. Illinois has slowed their tempo down as the year has gone on. A crazy 7 of the last 8 games for Illinois have stayed at or below 38 points. Last week, their game went over the total, but Iowa only put up 3.6 ypp and neither team got to 300 yards of total offense. 

Northwestern has scored 14 points or less in all but two of their Big Ten games. In both of the other two they only scored 21 points. 

Illinois should control the tempo and run the ball a lot here to keep the clock moving.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars have a spot in the AAC Title game against Cincinnati. That game is next week and that is the big one for Houston. I wouldn't expect Houston to try to run up the score here, because it really doesn't matter to them. They just want to get a win and get out of here. 

UConn is admittedly very bad on defense. They are even worse on offense though. The Houston defense ranks 6th in the nation in success rate allowed. The Cougars have been dominant on the defensive side of the football.

The weather here should play a role as well. Winds of about 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph are expected during this contest. That should make both teams more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are playing for a spot in the ACC Title game. Wake Forest will have a pretty tough challenge against a Boston College team that has played much better with a healthy Phil Jurkovec.

Wake Forest is a very fast paced team. They rank 4th in the nation in tempo. Wake Forest does rely on the passing game heavily. Sam Hartman has been very good this year. He is going up against a Boston College secondary that has been excellent this year though. Boston College ranks 14th in coverage grade at PFF. They have shut down some solid passing attacks this year.

Boston College lacks a dynamic running game. That is important because Wake Forest has been terrible against the run this season. The Eagles should be able to move the ball here, but they aren't likely to get huge chunk plays as some other teams have been able to.

The weather here is important as well. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph during this game. That is the kind of weather that makes a huge difference. There are strong angles for the under in this situation.

I don't generally want to bet unders with Wake Forest. In this case with them playing for so much and in extreme wind, I'll do so.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The St. Joe's Hawks were 74th and 68th quickest in average possession length the last two years. Billy Lange's team has slowed down considerably this year. St. Joe's ranks just 214th quickest in the country so far this year. I think Lange realizes he doesn't have the firepower right now to compete with better teams.

Georgetown has a lot of length and they will make shots in the paint tough to come by. The Hoyas rank 51st in half court defense rank so far this year. St. Joe's has only been in transition on 7% of their offensive possessions on the year. 

This game is being played on a neutral court in Anaheim. This is a unique venue that has a tough backdrop for shooters. Both games stayed under here last night.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The LA Clippers host the Detroit Pistons in a strange early Friday afternoon tilt on the West Coast. 

The teams were off for Thanksgiving, but they'll be back at it early on Friday. Early games have been good under bets in the NBA in the past, and early games on the West Coast have been even better. 

Detroit is one of the worst offenses in the NBA. They rank second worst in offensive efficiency. The Clippers rank second best in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Detroit should have trouble scoring in this one.

The Clippers have shown they are willing to let off the gas when playing with a lead late, and they are clearly favorites in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams rank 120th (Air Force) and 122nd (UNLV) in pace of play. The tempo will be very slow here.

Air Force runs the ball on 87.4% of their offensive plays. They will be very run heavy again here. UNLV is a bad team, but they have done one thing well this year. UNLV has a good defensive line. They have the 24th ranked run defense in the country according to PFF. UNLV has a top 15 stuff rate in the country. They won't shut down the Air Force triple option, but I think they can do a better job here than most would believe.

The UNLV offense is really bad. The Rebels would prefer to run the ball or throw short passes. The weakness of the Air Force defense is their secondary, but I don't think UNLV can take advantage of that weakness. Air Force has a great pass rush, and UNLV has allowed 36 sacks already this year. Air Force will be in the backfield here.

Air Force has seen 7 of their last 8 games finish regulation with a combined total of 48 points or lower. In fact, 5 of those 8 games finished with a total of 41 points or less. 

Air Force should have the lead burning up the clock late in this game to salt it away and that is a big positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies aren't a very good offensive team on an annual basis, but they are always good on defense. Montana has shot the ball better than expected this year, and they have been worse on defense than normal. I think that regresses to the mean.

The website Shot Quality analyzes quality of shots taken by each teams and spits out what the score should have been. Montana's last three games have finished 38 points higher in all than they should have been. That has made this total be set pretty high for one of their games.

UC San Diego has been drawing an insane amount of fouls so far this year. No one in the country had a free throw rate as high last year as UC San Diego has this year so far. That should regress to the mean and help lower scoring as well.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers are a completely different team this year under Ben Johnson instead of Richard Pitino. They have slowed their pace down drastically. Minnesota has seen 3 of their 4 games finish regulation with 127 points or less. 

Jacksonville is playing at one of the slowest tempos of any team in the country. They are using up 21 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average this year. They have a new coach this year as well and they have a new slower tempo. 

The oddsmakers typically need a bit to adjust to the new pace of teams like this.

Jacksonville turns the ball over a bunch which is just wasted possessions. Minnesota doesn't get out in transition much at all.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Western Illinois Leathernecks have played a bunch of fast paced teams so far this year. Their offensive average length of possession is slightly slower than the average team in the country so far this year. 

The website Shot Quality takes the quality of shots and spits out projected final scores compared to what the actual score was. Western Illinois had a game against DePaul with a final of 84-80, but SQ thinks the final should have been 70-64. Their last game against N Kentucky was also three points higher than it should have been.

Eastern Michigan has been very good defensively against shots from beyond the arc. Western Illinois takes a bunch of three pointers, and I think they'll be contested more in this game than they have been in most other games for Western Illinois.

This is a high total for a game with two teams who have mediocre offenses at best.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Jose State Spartans have a new coach in Tim Miles. Miles is a good coach and I trust him to help this team improve over time. Miles has this team shooting a bunch of long range jumpers early in the season. They have been falling more than expected thus far, but I don't think the 3 point success continues. 

According to the website Shot Quality, the Spartans have outperformed their expected point total regarding the average shot of that quality this year. They have scored 251 points so far this year. According to Shot Quality, they should have scored only 229 points. 

Northern Colorado's defense is a tough matchup for San Jose State. Northern Colorado excels at running opponents off the 3 point line. Coach Smiley has continued the tradition started by Jeff Linder. N Colorado is a top 60 or 70 three point defense every year.

Northern Colorado is a good under team because they don't get many second chance opportunities and they don't give up many offensive rebounds either. 

Both of these teams have faced a much tougher slate of offenses than defenses so far this year. Their defensive numbers should improve, while their offensive numbers are inflated.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack are the favorites here, and they want to run and gun. Nevada gave up a whopping 102 points against South Dakota State yesterday. 

Nevada has had at least 143 total points in every game they have played this year, and this line makes very little sense to me. 

George Mason is an above average team in terms of tempo. Nevada is a top 50 team in terms of tempo. The pace will be very quick here. 

I had this total projected at 144 so I see this one as pretty far off.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* These two teams just played on Saturday at a neutral site. The final score was 89-87. The tempo in the game was a blazing fast 78 possessions. 

Now, they go to Northern Arizona where the Lumberjacks will be playing on their home court and the total is set this low. 

Northern Arizona is pushing the pace more this year since they have Virginia Tech transfer Jalen Cone. The Lumberjacks have been a bottom 50 defense in the country nearly every single year in recent memory.

UT Rio Grande Valley is slightly better on offense this year, and they are clearly worse defensively. Matt Figgers is a great offensive minded coach.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The South Dakota State Jackrabbits and Nevada Wolf Pack meet in a neutral site contest on Monday night. 

Neutral site unders in the first 8 games of the season have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years overall. This has been an excellent angle over a long period of time.

Both of these teams shoot a lot of long range jumpers. Those long range jumpers can be a bit harder to hit in a neutral site gym.

This is such a high total that I have to back the under. An 81-79 game is under the total.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Drexel Dragons and Tulane Green Wave meet on Monday afternoon in the Bahamas at a neutral site.

Neutral site unders in the first 8 games of the season have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years overall. This has been an excellent angle over a long period of time.

Tulane plays a lot of zone and uses some full court pressure to actually slow the pace of the game down. 

Drexel and Tulane are both very good in transition defense so easy buckets should be hard to come by here. 

The long trip and a new gym is a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* We're going to get either Colt McCoy (seems increasingly likely) or a badly dinged up Kyler Murray in this one. Hopkins is out for the Cardinals as well and that makes this offense a much less intimidating task for the Seattle defense. Arizona had just 3.2 yards per play last week against Carolina. 

Seattle's offense put up 0 points last week against Green Bay. I certainly expect them to be much better here, but this Seattle offensive line is a major problem and their running game isn't good at all either. Russell Wilson isn't 100 percent healthy. The Cardinals defense is an above average unit as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Las Vegas Raiders have continually given up big plays in the passing game. Gus Bradley is unwilling to go away from his normal scheme to use the two high safety look that has been great against Patrick Mahomes and others in the NFL who are great with the deep ball. Mahomes burned the Raiders last week. I think Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing attack can do the same.

Burrow has three great options at wide receiver in Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. Chase and Higgins are both excellent deep threats. 

The Bengals defense looked good early in the season, but the truth has come out in recent weeks. This is still a below average defense that is very poor in the secondary. They struggle against good tight ends, which makes the Raiders a tough matchup for them.

The Bengals last 3 games have sailed over this total. This one is played in the dome and conditions will be ideal for these passing games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Baptist Huskies have decided to slow things down this year. They are playing 3.5 seconds per possession slower than they did a year ago. It makes sense because this team just wasn't seeing any success. They might as well try something different. 

Denver is playing differently under a new coach as well. He has them focused on defense, something that has been a major weakness in recent seasons for the Pioneers. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 75 in the nation in average possession length (so they are among the 75 slowest out of 358 in the country). 

Denver hasn't played a game that finished with more than this total all season including their games against Division II schools. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Total of the Week* The Detroit Lions plan to start back Tim Boyle in this one. While Jared Goff isn't a good NFL quarterback, it is a step down from Goff to Boyle. The game plan should be extremely conservative with Boyle under center. In fact, in recent weeks Dan Campbell has already been running the football a lot more. Swift had a whopping 33 carries for Detroit last week.

Baker Mayfield is dinged up and far less than 100 percent.  The Browns are highly likely to want to run the football a lot in this one and get out of here with a win over a weak team. 

The weather for this game should change things a bit. This is a stadium that is impacted a lot by wind gusts from the lake. Rain showers are expected with 15 mph wind and gusts over 20 mph. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans offense hasn't been nearly as good as you would have thought by the final scores in their last two games. The Titans only gained 195 yards in their win over the Rams. They had just 3.5 yards per play. In their win over the Saints, the Titans gained only 264 yards and 4.6 yards per play. 

The Titans offense is still decent, but Henry is a huge key and defenses can play them differently now. 

Houston's offense has been weak all season and they tend to be very conservative. The Texans have been especially bad offensively on the road throughout the course of the year. 

The weather for this game calls for a temperature in the 50's and steady rain with winds of 10-15 mph. That should be enough to make the two teams even more conservative.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints defense ranks first in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run, and it isn't particularly close. That's important since the Philadelphia Eagles have gone extremely run heavy in recent weeks. Philadelphia is a solid running team and they'll have some success here, but big gainers shouldn't be expected. They'll also likely use up a bunch of time and have to kick some field goals.

The Saints offense is a shell of its former self. New Orleans will throw in some gimmicks here and there but they just don't have the playmakers to be above average in any facet of the game right now. The Eagles defense is top ten against the run as well, and the Saints are going to play conservatively here also.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Neutral court unders early in the season have been great long term (54.9% in the last 15 years). Early tip offs at neutral court sites have been even better in the long haul. This is about as early of a start time as you will ever see in college basketball.

Temple is a solid defensive team that works hard on that end under Coach McKie, but they have no real identity on the offensive end.

Elon is a good defensive rebounding team. Limiting Temple to one shot is key and I think they can do solid in that area. Elon's offense relies too much on questionable mid range jumpers.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Baylor ranks 108th in the country in tempo. The Bears have played very slowly all year and I would expect the same here. Kansas State ranks 128th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats want to control the ball and use up the time.

Baylor just played a very low scoring game against Oklahoma which tells you quite a bit about the Bears. Dave Aranda is improving this Baylor defense throughout the course of the season. 

Kansas State's has drastically improved in recent weeks. The Wildcats have given up just 13.0 points per game in their last three contests (TCU, Kansas, and West Virginia). 

Baylor runs the ball on 61% of their offensive plays. Kansas State runs the ball on 59% of their offensive plays. There should be a lot of running clock through this game. 

These are the 2nd and 4th ranked defense in the Big 12. They rank 2nd and 3rd in the Big 12 in rushing defense. Neither passing attack is known for big plays. They do a lot of short passes to keep the defense honest. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini want to run the football early and often. Bret Bielema's team has been running the ball on more than 65% of their offensive plays of late. Iowa allows only 3.00 yards per carry which is 7th best in the country. Illinois has virtually no passing game.

Iowa has played two quarterbacks, but neither one of them are very good. The Illinois defense has improved a lot through the season. This group has a better defensive coaching staff this season.

This is an extremely low total, but it is very low for good reasons. Illinois has played in 7 straight games that have finished under this low total! Iowa has seen 5 of their 10 games this year stay under this very low total.

Both teams play slowly and are conservative on offense. Both defenses rank in the top 15 in the country in preventing big plays. A lot of running clock and the defenses having the upper hand.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston College Eagles have Phil Jurkovec back and it makes a world of a difference for this offense. Boston College looked like an offensive machine last week in their win over Georgia Tech. They put up 41 points on 8.9 yards per play. Jurkovec had an average depth of target of more than 18 yards per pass, so they were really being aggressive and taking shots down the field. Zay Flowers is a mismatch for most teams, and I don't think Florida State has an answer for him.

Jordan Travis has been playing well for the Florida State offense. Travis is a good runner, but he has really matured as a passer as well. Travis led Florida State to 424 yards and 31 points last week in a win over Miami. He has been making good decisions with the ball.

Boston College's offensive numbers for the year are misleading since Jurkovec was out for much of the season. This is a completely different offense with him on the field. 

This should be a back and forth game and overtime is even a possibility with a spread of less than a field goal here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers are playing two seconds per possession slower than they did a year ago. Minnesota has had two very low scoring games in their first three contests. 

Purdue Fort Wayne played a bit slower in their first contest than they did last season. This is a Fort Wayne team that puts up a lot of 3's, but Minnesota's defense is designed to run you off the 3 point line. The Golden Gophers should make it hard on Fort Wayne to get open looks from deep in this game.

This total is several points higher than I believe it should be.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The CS Northridge Matadors have Trent Johnson as their interim coach. His preferred style of play is much different than Mark Gottfried. Gottfried has been a fast paced coach his whole career. Johnson has always been a slow it down type of coach. We are already seeing that in the numbers for this season. CS Northridge is averaging 20.7 seconds per possession on offense this year. Last year they were only using 16.3 seconds per possession. A 4.4 second difference is a huge tempo change.

Eastern Washington has had high scoring contests in their first couple, but they have played two top 50 teams in terms of tempo they are now playing a bottom 50 team in terms of tempo.

Neither of these teams are great defensively, but this is a very high total with one team trying to stall throughout the game.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado State Rams are a high quality team. Colorado State has played three terrible defenses though. The Rams have taken on Oral Roberts (good offense bad defense), Arkansas Pine Bluff, and Peru State. Bradley isn't an elite defense by any means, but the Braves are an above average defense in most years under a defensive minded head coach.

Bradley offensively is a mess right now. This is an offense with no real identity. Elijah Childs and Terry Nolan are gone and they were the go to guys. Colorado State should slow this Bradley offense down.

This is a neutral site game. Early season neutral site games have gone 54.9% to the under in the last 15 years.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* Micah Shrewsberry is Penn State's new coach and he already has changed the way the Nittany Lions play in a big way. Penn State has slowed their pace down dramatically. The Nittany Lions are averaging 20.1 seconds per possession. Last year they were averaging only 16.6 seconds per possession. 

Penn State is likely to be playing from the lead here. They are big favorites against a St. Francis team that doesn't have many good shooters from the outside. Penn State should be a good defensive rebounding team this year, so I expect St. Francis to only get one shot in most possessions.

This is a high total for the favorite being such a slow paced team. Penn State only scored 75 points against a bad Youngstown State defense earlier this year. Myreon Jones was a big loss for Penn State from last year's team.

Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* For years now Temple has been much better defensively than they are on offense. The Owls always play hard, but they just aren't efficient on offense.

Clemson is an elite team defensively under Brad Brownell. The Tigers have a lot of length that should bother Temple in this one. Clemson also controls the tempo and does a good job keeping the game in the halfcourt.

Neutral court unders early in the season has been a great betting angle for many years now, and this one fits that system. In fact, 54.9% of all games on neutral courts in games 1-8 of the regular season have gone under the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game tips off at noon eastern in South Carolina. New Mexico State is a long way from home for this one.

New Mexico State is a tremendous defensive team that works hard to keep the tempo slow. Davidson has had higher scoring games than they should have based on the quality of their shots in those games.

Neutral court unders early in the season has been a great betting angle for many years now, and this one fits that system. In fact, 54.9% of all games on neutral courts in games 1-8 of the regular season have gone under the total.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Pistons offense is one of the weakest in the NBA. The Indiana Pacers have slowed down their tempo in recent games. Indiana ranks 25th out of 30 teams in the NBA in pace of play in their last ten games. The Pacers have been an under machine of late.

Detroit has shown that they typically play a game to the preferred tempo of their opponent. That is common for a weak and young team like the Pistons. 

Detroit has scored 91 points or less in four of their last eight games overall.

The under is 6-0 in the Pacers last 6 road games.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals host the Central Michigan Chippewas on Wednesday night in the MAC. Both of these teams have at least a shot at the MAC West still (Central Michigan has the better chance). 

Ball State has a pretty good defense at least by MAC standards. Central Michigan is a good run defense and a poor pass defense. 

Ball State doesn't allow big plays which is crucial for an under. Ball State ranks 4th in the nation in defensive explosiveness. Central Michigan has relied heavily on big plays this year, and Ball State should be able to slow those down better than most MAC teams.

Both teams probably will need to rely on the run more than normal in this game. The weather forecast for Muncie on Wednesday night calls for winds of 16 mph with gusts to 22 mph and rain throughout this game.

Both defenses are clearly better against the run than the pass, so their weaknesses might not be exposed as much as normal here thanks to the bad weather.

Take the under. 

*This line is moving down as the weather forecast is being seen by more of the market. I would bet this game down to 58. Thanks and good luck.* 

*3 Star Play Under* The Delaware Blue Hens and La Salle Explorers have played two games each and according to Shot Quality, both of these teams have played in games that have been higher scoring than they should have been based on the averages of their quality of shots. 

A good example of a statistic that is screaming for regression is Delaware's 3 point defense. The Blue Hens have allowed opponents to shoot 62.1% from 3 point range. We know that definitely isn't going to continue. 

La Salle has shot 33.6% or lower from 3 point range in the last three seasons. The Explorers have played two teams that have finished regulation with 134 points or lower. 

This should be a game with a tempo right around the average pace in the country. Regression to the mean should mean the under has a good chance.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars have slowed their tempo down quite a bit this year. BYU is 301st in the nation in average possession length this year, and last year they were 157th. 

Oregon typically plays pretty slowly, and they are doing that again this year. Oregon is 321st out of 358 in the nation in terms of pace of play. 

Oregon's defense should be much better this year with Quincy Guerrier in the frontcourt. He's a great shot blocker, but he isn't great on the offensive end. Jacob Young is also a good perimeter defender and he came over from Rutgers.

This game is at Moda Center in Portland rather than being a true home game for Oregon. These different sites are typically helpful for the under.

Both of these teams are good offensively, but the pace should be slow and the defenses are solid.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Seton Hall has decided to play much quicker this year since they are without star big man Sandro Mamukelashvili. The Pirates rank 11th in average possession length in the country in their first two games. They are using only 13.9 seconds of the shot clock on average.

Michigan has sped up their pace a bit this year as well. The Wolverines are 117th in pace on offense out of 358 teams in the country. The Wolverines should get quite a few second chance opportunities in this game because I consider Seton Hall a relatively weak defensive rebounding team.

Seton Hall is allowing opponents to shoot 11% from 3 point range so far this year. Michigan is allowing opponents to shoot 19.6% from 3 point range so far this year. These are likely good perimeter defenses, but not this good! There will be some regression coming.

Signs of defensive regression and a fast pace.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The UTSA Roadrunners no longer have Keaton Wallace or Jhivan Jackson in the backcourt. They were the stars for this team for many years. Without these two, UTSA's offense takes a huge hit. Jacob Germany is a key player for the Roadrunners now and he is a solid big man who is a pretty good shot blocker. 

UTSA likely slows their pace down this year without two stars in the backcourt. They no longer have the ideal team to run the floor. UTSA lost to Texas A&M Commerce (?!) on Monday night. They put up only 62 points in that one.

Denver was a new coach in Jeff Wulburn. He took over for Rodney Billups who struggled mightily at Denver. The Denver defense has been atrocious in recent years. Denver is clearly slowing the pace down this year as compared to recent seasons. The Pioneers have also looked better on defense. They held IUPUI to just 47 points yesterday.

This total is quite a bit higher than my projection.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Siena lost a lot from last year's team. The Saints are now without Jalen Pickett and that hurts them a bunch on offense. Manny Camper was a huge loss as well. Now, Siena doesn't really have a go to guy on offense. 

Yale has been good defensively in past seasons and I think they will be pretty good on defense again this year. 

Siena put up just 47 and 63 points against St. Bonnie and Delaware. 

Neither of these teams want to push the pace very much. This is a high total for the tempo and the question marks I have about the offenses.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* UNLV has played in two very low scoring games already this year. UNLV won 64-58 over Gardner Webb. They then won 55-52 over Cal. 

North Dakota State will finish the year in the bottom 40 teams or so in the country in terms of tempo. The Bison want to play a low scoring game, and they should get their way here.

UNLV has been playing much better defense so far this year under Kruger, but the offense has been stagnant to put it lightly.

Neither team fouls much or gets to the line often so barring a ref show this should be a pretty clean game.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The San Francisco Dons have a good offense. The Dons feature good outside shooters in Shabazz and Stefanini. They also have the inside game with Massalki and Tape. The Dons are likely to overwhelm the small Samford team in the halfcourt.

Samford presses a bunch, and they are looking for quick turnovers and transition baskets. They should be able to get some against a San Francisco team who has turned the ball over on 23.9% of their possessions on offense so far this year. 

Both of these teams have struggled badly to play defense without fouling in recent seasons. I expect a lot of trips to the charity stripe in this one.

This total is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Montana Grizzlies play a lot of low scoring games. Why? Montana will rank in the bottom 60 or 70 teams in the country in pace of play nearly every year. They are also much better on defense than on offense. Offensively, this team often struggles to get in a rhythm. On the defensive side, they'll make things tough for their opponent.

Mississippi State just torched the nets for 13/23 shooting from 3 point range last game against Montana. That has pushed this total too high. North Dakota isn't Mississippi State. The Fighting Hawks don't have many good shooters.

North Dakota stayed under this total against fast paced Milwaukee in game one. Montana is the better team and they should dictate pace here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Fordham Rams still aren't a good offensive team. Fordham has been hapless on offense the last few years. They have a new coach in Kyle Neptune, but this team hasn't just automatically become good at the outside jumper. I still expect Fordham to be in the bottom 50 in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. 

St. Thomas is a new Division I school this year. St. Thomas has had two pretty high scoring games this year and that has likely led to this total being steamed upward. It's important to note though that they played Chicago State and St. Francis (NY) in those games. Those are two of the bottom 20 defenses in the country. Fordham has been a top 100 defense in most recent seasons, and the Rams will at least be a much tougher defense than either of St. Thomas' first two opponents.

I don't think the pace will be all that quick here. Unless both teams are shooting it well, this number is too high.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings rank second in the NFL in tempo. The LA Chargers rank 5th in the NFL in tempo. Both of these teams are more than willing to go uptempo and throw it around if needed. 

These two defenses are badly banged up. Joey Bosa is questionable and didn't practice on Friday. Ryan Smith is out and Michael Davis is doubtful as well at the cornerback spot. Adderly and Webb are both questionable at safety. 

The Vikings are without star Danielle Hunter and now Anthony Barr and Michael Pierce are out as well. Breeland is questionable at cornerback for the Vikings also.

The Chargers are very willing to go for it on 4th down and that can lead to more points in either direction.

The two offenses are pretty healthy, and the two defenses are a mess. This one has real shootout potential.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are said to be doubtful to play according to Ian Rapoport. With Chase Edmonds out due to an ankle injury, the Cardinals will lean heavily on James Conner. Conner is a solid runner, but he isn't an explosive guy. He is more of a strong runner who can usually get you a few yards. McCoy is clearly far more conservative than Murray. If Murray does play he'll be at much less than 100%.

P.J. Walker starts here for the Panthers. Walker doesn't look like an NFL quarterback in his time under center thus far. The game plan is likely to be very conservative with Walker at quarterback. The Panthers have scored just 28 points in their last three games combined. 

Arizona quietly has the #2 ranked defense in DVOA so far this year. The Cardinals aren't likely to give up much against this Carolina offense.

On the other side, Carolina is 2nd in YPP allowed and 11th in DVOA on defense. 

These two teams both rank in the bottom 10 in the country in tempo this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys were awful offensively for more than 3/4 of the game against the Denver Broncos, and yet they are still first in the NFL in yards per play so far this year. 

Dak Prescott looked very rusty for much of the game against the Broncos, but I expect Dak to be much better here. It helps that Atlanta has a weak pass rush and a poor group of corners as well.

The Falcons defensive numbers are definitely skewed. They have played one offense in the top 12 in the NFL in yards per play all season long (Tampa Bay). They allowed 48 points in that game. Their last few games have been against bottom 10 offenses in the NFL. This is a very weak Atlanta defense.

I don't think the Dallas defense is as good as many believe they are right now. They are better than last year, but that isn't saying a lot. 

Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL in tempo. Atlanta ranks 14th in the NFL in tempo. This one is played in a dome on the fast track.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Missouri State Bears sped up their pace of play some last year. Missouri State Coach Dana Ford said in the offseason that Jaylen Minnett was a big pickup for his team because, "He is a dynamic scoring guard that will allow us to play an even more up-tempo, aggressive style on both ends." 

Missouri State played a 77 possession game (very fast) against SE Missouri State in their season opener. The Bears were the team pushing the pace in that one for the most part. Missouri State only used 14.6 seconds of the shot clock on average in that game.

Alabama State has played two extremely fast paced games in their first two contests. Mo Williams is their coach and he wants this team to get up and down. Alabama State struggles badly with turnovers on the offensive end, but Missouri State hasn't forced many turnovers the last couple seasons. 

A lot of transition basketball in this one. The pace will be there. As long as the shooting numbers are decent I like this to fall over the total.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Under* Bradley Beal will miss this game following the death of his grandmother. Beal is clearly the best offensive player on this Washington team and the offense runs through him. Last year, Beal had one of the highest offensive player ratings, but he also had one of the worst defensive player ratings. 

The Wizards defense has been one of the best in the NBA of late. In fact, in their last three games, the Wizards have the best defensive efficiency numbers in the NBA. 

Orlando is averaging just 0.96 points per possession on their home floor this year. The Magic just don't have enough good scoring options especially when they are taking on a talented defense. Wes Unseld Jr. has the Wizards working really hard on the defensive end. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the NBA in tempo. This is a divisional matchup and those are a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks host the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Sun Belt action here. This is far from a "good" matchup, but I see value on this one. 

Arkansas State ranks 12th in the nation in tempo. UL Monroe ranks 29th in the nation in tempo. Arkansas State ranks 130th in yards per play allowed (out of 130 teams). UL Monroe ranks 113th out of 130 in yards per play allowed. 

Arkansas State throws the ball on 60% of their offensive plays. UL Monroe ranks 117th in opponent QBR. The Red Wolves should bust some big plays here.

Arkansas State's defense is the worst in the country, and it isn't close. Arkansas State has allowed a ridiculous 13 plays of 60 yards or more this season! Only one other team in the country has allowed more than 7. In fact, 15 teams have allowed zero. Arkansas State is ultra vulnerable against a fast paced offense that has home run possibilities.

Both offenses rank in the top half of the country in explosiveness. Good weather is in the forecast for this one. A fast pace with two weak defenses and very little to play for is usually a good thing for a high scoring contest.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers host the South Alabama Jaguars here. 

South Alabama is expected to be without Jake Bentley at quarterback. Former starter Desmond Trotter will step in and be under center here. The Jaguars haven't been able to run the ball on hardly anyone this year, and I wouldn't expect them to be able to run on Appalachian State here. South Alabama is 104th in the nation in YPC. Their offensive line allows the opponent in the backfield too often.

The Appalachian State offense likes to run the football. The Mountaineers run the ball on nearly 58% of their offensive plays. South Alabama is 19th in the nation in YPC allowed. Chase Brice has been pretty good for Appalachian State this year, but I think this is a game where Appalachian State will be happy to salt this game away with the run game.

The weather here is part of the reason I like the under. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 28 mph are in the forecast. That is certainly enough to change the way the game is played. A more conservative game script likely means more running clock and less chances for big plays.

Take the under here. 

*5 Star Top Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats have been taught to play at an extremely quick tempo by their new head coach Tommy Lloyd. Arizona played faster in their first game than they did in any game last year. The Wildcats used only 13.5 seconds of the 30 second shot clock on average, and that is despite the fact that they had a large lead throughout most of that game. 

Arizona won 81-52 and that game stayed under the total. There were two things that kept that game under the total. Northern Arizona decided to go zone and try to slow the game down. Northern Arizona also was dreadful shooting the basketball. They put up just 0.74 points per possession.

UT Rio Grande Valley has a new coach too in Matt Figgers. Figgers is known as a great offensive coach, but his teams aren't usually very good on defense. Figgers said he has encouraged Ricky Nelson to push the pace from the point guard spot as much as he can this year. Look for UT Rio Grande to try to get in transition when they can as well.

Arizona is too good offensively for UT Rio Grande Valley to slow them down. In this case, Arizona is playing a team who clearly wants to play quickly. The total is set lower than their first game which saw the total steamed up to 145 points against Northern Arizona. 

I had this total set quite a bit higher than this.

Take the over. Top Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Over* Josh Schertz promised to have this Indiana State team playing much faster this year. He came over from Lincoln Memorial (D II powerhouse school) where his teams always played extremely fast. In game one against Wisconsin Green Bay (a team that wants to play slowly), Indiana State forced the tempo very well. The Sycamores won 81-77 in a game that played to a quick 73 possessions. 

Purdue has an impressive amount of offensive weapons this year. Jaden Ivey is a breakout candidate. Stefanovic is an excellent outside shooter. Edey and Williams are next to impossible to guard on the inside. Purdue piled up 96 points on Bellarmine in the season opener. Indiana State doesn't have the talent and length to stop them defensively either.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Abilene Christian was elite defensively last year, and they were no better than mediocre on offense. They lost some of their best offensive talent from a year ago and they have a new head coach. 

Texas A&M wants to grind games down and win with their defense and tenacity. Buzz Williams has a team with a lot of length that I think can really bother Abilene Christian. On the other hand, Texas A&M doesn't have good guards that I trust with breaking Abiliene Christian's aggressive trapping defense without turning it over a lot. 

I expect both teams to have a lot of wasted empty possessions where they don't even get a shot up in this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bulls have improved a bunch on the defensive end. It's the number one reason this team has been so successful this season. The team made a lot of transactions in the offseason, and that has led to defense being prioritized much more by the current starters for Chicago.

The Dallas Mavericks have been very slow with their tempo this year. Dallas ranks 24th in pace of play this season. Chicago is a slightly below average 17th in tempo. 

Dallas ranks 15th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Bulls rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency.

We have seen the way officials are calling the game in the NBA this year and how it has helped the under. The new basketball likely plays a role as well.

In this year's NBA, this is a pretty high total.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats are going to play much faster this year under first year head coach Tommy Lloyd. He said his top priority early in the season is to get this team running and pushing the pace. The Wildcats have very athletic big men this year who will be able to dominate the weak Northern Arizona defense in the frontcourt.

Northern Arizona's coach said before the season that he feels he has more guys who are capable of pushing the tempo than he has had in recent years. It's a good thing because they are likely  to need to push the tempo most of the way here since they should be down by quite a few through this game.

The last two years these two have played the game went over the total both times and that was with slower paced teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys are without Cade Cunningham, but this team showed they can score last year even without Cade in the lineup. The pace for Boynton's teams will always be quick.

UT Arlington has a new head coach, Greg Young, and he said his top priority is for this UT Arlington team to revert back to the extremely fast tempo they played at a few years ago. Here is a great chance for them to do just that against an Oklahoma State team that likes to run as well.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Indiana State Sycamores are a team I expect to undergo a major "pace change" this year with their new head coach Josh Schertz. Schertz has been at Division II powerhouse Lincoln Memorial for years and that team has pushed the pace to the extreme while he was there. He said in the preseason he wants there to be a much quicker tempo for Indiana State.

Will Ryan coaches Green Bay and they don't play very fast, but they are very weak defensively so they still had quite a few pretty high scoring games last season.

I don't think the oddsmakers have adjusted enough here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Both of these teams have new coaches this year. Both of these also lost a ton of star power off their team from a year ago. Though Joe Golding is gone at Abilene Christian I would expect their defense to stay very strong and their offense to be scrappy but not efficient.

Craig Smith is the new coach at Utah. Smith is an excellent defensive coach. The Utes are very short handed on offense this year, but I expect them to play very well defensively for their coach.

The pace here should be relatively slow and I expect both teams to have to work very hard for open looks.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Big pace change coming for UMBC. Ryan Odom is gone and Jim Ferry is their new head coach. Ferry's teams have pushed the tempo year after year. Odom's teams played a lot of low scoring tight games. 

UMass was happy to run last year and I think they'll play fast enough again for this one to get past the posted total unless there is terrible shooting numbers across the board.

UMBC's totals will look a lot different this year. I don't the oddsmakers have adjusted enough here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers rank second in the NFL in tempo. The Philadelphia Eagles rank 6th in the NFL in tempo. There should be a lot of snaps here. We don't have a posted total that is set particularly high given that pace of play either.

The Chargers strength is throwing the football. The Eagles defensive weakness is still their secondary. I would expect Justin Herbert and his wideouts to have a nice day here on Sunday. Austin Ekeler played despite being banged up last Sunday, and he averaged a very impresssive 5.8 yards per carry.

The Eagles rank 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry. The Chargers are dead last in YPC allowed. The Eagles offensive front should allow them to be able to run on the Chargers here.

The weather for this matchup looks good thus far. 

Jerome Boger's crew will be officiated this game. This is the best "over" crew in the business thanks to their defensive holding and pass interference calls.

Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Denver Broncos aren't nearly the defense people expected them to be at the beginning of the season. Denver got rid of Von Miller and that clearly is a hit. They also have several very key injuries. Bradley Chubb, Bryce Callahan, Josey Jewell, and AJ Johnson are all out here. 

The Dallas Cowboys have the best offense in the NFL. They aren't the team you want to be going against with a multitude of defensive injuries. 

Dak Prescott is expected to be back here, and he has two great running backs in Elliot and Pollard in the backfield. Lamb is questionable on the outside, but Dallas still has several top notch wide receivers. 

The Cowboys defense is improved, but they aren't as good as many believe now. Dallas still ranks as a bottom five defense in yards per play allowed. Teddy Bridgewater has Jeudy back on the outside and the Cowboys are unlikely to get too much pressure on Bridgewater here.

Dallas has scored 29 points or more in all but one game that Prescott has started (20 against the Chargers- they had a whopping 7.0 YPP in that one too). They should hit 30 or more here again.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Cougars defense ranks 5th in the country in success rate allowed. They are 13th in YPP allowed and that is despite a high scoring contest against an elite SMU offense this past weekend. 

Houston won't be up against anything like that here. USF is 99th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Bulls try to run the ball as much as possible, but Houston's strength is their run defense. The Cougars are 4th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at just 2.82. 

Houston's offense isn't special. Clayton Tune is more of a game manager and this Houston team ranks 105th in the nation in pace of play. The Cougars should be happy to get a lead and run the block and play conservatively. 

Houston only gave up 355 yards against SMU. The Cougars defense has been dominant much of the year. They should be great again here.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks take on the Washington Huskies in Seattle on Saturday evening. The weather forecast in Seattle is pretty extreme over the next few days. What's in the forecast? A bunch of rain day after day. It's pretty wet in general in Seattle, but this is extreme weather. For a couple days there will be fairly significant winds as well. One of those days is Saturday. Sustained winds of about 18 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are forecast for this one.

I would expect a more conservative game plan from both teams in this one. What will it mean? Likely a bunch of running the football. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the country at preventing explosive plays. 

Washington isn't a very good run defense, but they will likely put more people in the box in these conditions. Oregon isn't quite as explosive on the ground without Verdell either.

Washington's ground game isn't good. The Huskies rank 100th in ypc on the season. They are up against an Oregon defense that ranks 29th in ypc allowed this year. 

None of Washington's Pac 12 games have gone over this total in regulation this year. Now we add in some bad weather. 

Take the under here. 

*Update- This line is moving down as more people are seeing the weather forecast here. I would play this for a 4 star rating down to 49 and a 3 star rating down to 47. Thank you.* 

*3 Star Play Under* One of Clemson's ACC games has gone over 45 points in regulation. Which one was it? It was last week's contest against Florida State which should have finished with 43 points but for the laterals backward 40 yards and a touchdown at the final whistle for a terrible beat on the under.

Louisville plays slowly, but relies on a pretty efficient running game to be successful on the offensive end. While Clemson's offense is a mess, the Tigers still have an elite defense. How good are they? Clemson ranks 7th in YPP allowed this year. They are 9th in the country in success rate allowed. I don't think Louisville will have an easy time navigating things against this Clemson front seven.

The Clemson offense has no real identity. The Tigers rank 111th in the nation in yards per play. Louisville's defense has improved in recent weeks and I think the Cardinals can hold Clemson in check as other teams have this season.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd and Florida Atlantic Owls both play pretty fast so taking an under here doesn't feel great initially, but once you look at the matchup more closely I think there is value.

Marshall is all about throwing it around. Florida Atlantic's defense ranks 6th best in the country in opponent QBR. The Owls have an elite secondary. Grant Wells has struggled against the top secondaries he has faced so far this year. Marshall's rushing attack isn't very good. 

Florida Atlantic's N'Kosi Perry has been terrible when under pressure this year, and Marshall ranks in the top six in the country in pass rush grade. The Thundering Herd should get a lot of heat on Perry here. 

I see both offenses having some big negative plays and getting behind the sticks. Even if they move the ball down the field, there could be some field goals instead of touchdowns.

The defenses have the upper hand. Winds of about 20 mph during this game are definitely a positive for the under as well. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats have played one game all season that has gone over this posted total. Their opponent in that game was the Oklahoma Sooners. 

Kansas State ranks 4th in the Big 12 in yards per play allowed. They are 30th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They have been pretty good at preventing explosive plays especially in the running game.

Kansas' offense isn't good at anything, but they are especially bad if you force them to throw the ball. I expect Kansas State to do precisely that in this contest.

Kansas State ranks 127th in the nation in pace of play. Kansas ranks 121st in the nation in pace of play. It is very rare you'll see a posted total set this high in a game with two teams who play this slowly.

Kansas has only allowed 15 plays of 30 yards or more. The Jayhawks will give up yards and points, but it is likely to usually be longer drives from Kansas State that take quite a bit of time.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini have played six straight games that have finished with a total of 38 points or fewer. Illinois has been an under machine. The Fighting Illini defense has improved throughout the season. They have a very good set of safeties to lead the defense. The Illinois offense is still a mess. Peters isn't healthy enough and the offensive line has been disappointing.

Minnesota is on their third string running back. They have still been good running the football, and I do think they'll get their rushing yards here. It's key to point out the pace that Minnesota plays at. Minnesota ranks 129th in the tempo in the country. Only one team is using more time between plays than them and that is Army. 

The Golden Gophers are 14.5 point favorites here. They should have the lead late and that would mean they are using the clock and trying to end the contest. That's a good game script for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers will be without Tobias Harris in this one. Harris was averaging 19.8 points per game. They'll also be without long range shooter Danny Green. Joel Embiid will be back for this contest.

The 76ers rank dead last in the NBA in tempo this year, and it isn't even close. They have really slowed their pace down a lot this season. The Bulls rank 20th in tempo, so they are slower than an average team as well.

The Bulls are 6th in defensive efficiency in the NBA. The 76ers are a solid 14th. Both of these defenses tend to put up a pretty good fight. 

Brian Forte and Scott Twardowski are two of the best "under" officials in the NBA. Both of them have seen more than 54% of their games all time stay under the total. Both are officiating this contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Astros have had the best offense in baseball all year. Houston's bats busted out of a slump in Game 5. They hit Max Fried hard earlier this series. I don't see any series to think they won't hit the ball well here. Fried has allowed 11 runs in his last two starts.

Luis Garcia has had a bad postseason. Garcia has a 7.62 ERA in the postseason thus far. Garcia is on an odd rest schedule. He's pitching on just 3 days rest instead of his normal, since he came out of the bullpen and threw 72 pitches on Friday night.

Alfonso Marquez is the home plate umpire here. The over is 46-31 in his last 77 games behind home plate. He has proven to be a hitter friendly umpire over the long term.

I think both offenses will create plenty of scoring chances here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints are a completely different team than they were a few years ago. The Saints are now a defense first team. New Orleans has a top five defense in the NFL. They actually have gotten a bit healthier of late, and the Saints already rank 3rd in the NFL in YPP allowed so far this year.

New Orleans is 31st in pace of play. With Jameis Winston, the Saints staff has decided to play it very safe and I don't blame them one bit. The Saints have ran the ball on 55% of their offensive snaps so far this year. That is easily first in the NFL. 

Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the NFL. I don't see the Saints having all that much success on the ground here. 

The Bucs have a great offense, but the Saints defense has given Tom Brady some trouble in recent seasons. I think they'll have a good scheme again here. Will they shut them down? No. I do think they can slow them down though.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Football team secondary has been as bad as any in football. Washington has allowed 30 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. 

Washington's offense didn't punt a single time last week against Green Bay. Somehow they managed only 10 points. They put up 6.1 yards per play on Green Bay though and that was an encouraging sign for this team.

Denver gets Jerry Jeudy back for this game and he should be able to take advantage of the Washington secondary. Teddy Bridgewater is an underrated quarterback and I expect him to play well here.

This is a very low total with a favorable weather forecast for this one. 

Denver has a ton of key injuries on defense. At a full strength they are a good defense, but right now they are no better than mediocre.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The San Diego State Aztecs clearly have a good defense. San Diego State has proven they are good against the run. Their pass defense looks very good by the numbers, but they haven't been tested by anyone. Let's look at the offenses they have faced thus far: New Mexico State (Terrible team in general), Arizona (awful passing attack), Utah (before the switch to Cam Rising), Towson (FCS team), New Mexico (Bottom 15 passing attack in country), San Jose State (with a backup quarterback), and Air Force (they just run it all the time). 

San Diego State has a pretty good pass defense, but I'm not convinced they are as good as the numbers would make you think right now. Fresno State ranks 9th in the nation in passing play success rate. Jake Haener has been tremendous and Jalen Cropper is an elite wide receiver.

Fresno State's run defense has been beaten by some teams this year. San Diego State has been running it better in recent weeks. The Aztecs are accustomed to coasting late in the game and using up the clock. I think Fresno State will score enough that San Diego State will have to keep going until the final whistle here.

A total of 44.5 is extremely low when one of the teams is as good offensively as Fresno State. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles defense is a pretty solid unit. Southern Miss ranks 39th in defensive success rate allowed. They have given up quite a few big plays this year, but Alabama skewed those stats some and they obviously don't play any other team that has talent like that. The Golden Eagles are especially strong against the run.

Southern Miss is atrocious on offense. The Golden Eagles are 129th out of 130 in the country in yards per play. They are averaging only 4.08 ypp even in CUSA play against really weak defenses. They are putting up a miserable 1.56 ypc in CUSA action. The Golden Eagles have scored 32 points in their last 3 games combined. 

Middle Tennessee State is 98th in the country in yards per play on offense. The Blue Raiders have some success throwing the football, but their rushing attack has been very weak. 

MTSU is good in the secondary, but they are weak against the run. Southern Miss hasn't been able to run it against anyone so far this year.

Showers are in the forecast for this game (not heavy), but they could change the game some. The winds are expected to be 12 mph with gusts up to 20 mph during this one.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Indiana has scored a grand total of 28 points in their four Big Ten contests. It looks like they might be without their top two quarterbacks (Penix and Tuttle) in this one. Against Ohio State, they had to play McCulley and Gremel quite a bit and the offense went nowhere fast. McCulley was 1/6 for 30 yards passing. Gremel was 3/4 for 9 yards passing.

Maryland has been far less dynamic in the passing game without Demas on the field. The Terrapins have shown they are willing to slow the game down and run it more when they have a lead. They are favored in this contest.

Indiana's running game has been non-existent for the last two years. The Hoosiers offensive front is terrible. Maryland has taken on some good offenses in recent weeks and their defensive stats are a bit skewed. In their current state, Indiana is a terrible offensive team. The Hoosiers are still coached by a good defensive mind and I think their defense can improve the rest of the way.

Take the under.