*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas have a really good quarterback in Cooper Rush. With Rush at the helm, Central Michigan is a team that can create big plays. Central Michigan is 7th in the nation in "explosive" plays, plays of 20 yards or more with 28 already this year.

Western Michigan's defense has improved a lot against the run this year, but they are giving up big plays in the passing game. The Broncos have already allowed 4 passing plays of 40 yards or more on the year despite not playing against good quarterbacks. Also, Western Michigan has allowed their opponent to throw for a season high in passing yards in each of their games.

On the other side, Western Michigan's offense is as balanced as you will ever see from a MAC team. The Broncos can score on anyone. They have a good quarterback and two great running backs. Davis is an elite wide receiver. The Broncos should be able to move the ball consistently here. 

Rain in the area is the only reason this play isn't rated higher. I'll temper my enthusiasm a bit, but still a recommend a play on the over. 

Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA TOP Total of the Month* The Charlotte 49ers and the Old Dominion Monarchs both have horrendous defenses. Both of these teams give up big plays by the bunches. Last year when they met the final score was 37-34. This year, both of the teams are much more experienced on offense. Old Dominion is getting much better quarterback play than a year ago, and the Monarchs should score plenty here.

Charlotte has Miami transfer Kevin Olsen at quarterback and he has been up and down, but against this weak ODU secondary he should look good. The 49ers have a couple good running backs who are more than capable of busting some big runs also. 

I made this total 66 points. A lot of value on the over in this game. Take the over big. TOP Total of the Month. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons defense is awful. They allowed 77 points to Ohio State. That was Ohio State so it is somewhat understandable, but last weekend they allowed 77 points to Memphis. The Memphis Tigers scored 77 points on Bowling Green. The worst part was Memphis had 77 with 14 minutes left and then quit scoring out of kindness.

Bowling Green's offense should have more success against an EMU defense that is among the worst defenses in the country. The Falcons still have some offensive weapons from last year's team that was great on offense.

Eastern Michigan is playing quicker and has much more talent on offense than they have had in past years. I think this one gets into the 70's. Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Under* Navy and Air Force both run the same offense. They both run the ball nearly every time they line up. While it is usually really difficult for the opposition to prepare for these offenses, in this case it is easy. They play against it every single day in practice. 

Navy is one of the slowest paced teams in the country. They often have long 7 or 8 minute drives and that makes a big difference when you have a total like this one. Air Force is slower than the average team as well.

Look for the two defenses to understand their assignments well here. With tons of running the football, this clock will be ticking away quickly. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Florida State Seminoles offense got on track in a big way last week against USF. Dalvin Cook ran for 267 yards on only 28 carries last week. The USF defense isn't a bad one either. Florida State had a hiccup at Louisville, but remember they also put up 45 points against a good Ole Miss game in the season opener. This offense is capable of very big things. 

North Carolina's secondary is good, but the Tar Heels struggle against good running teams (4.97 yards per carry). That showed again last week when the Tar Heels were very fortunate to beat Pittsburgh after the Panthers dominated them on the ground. Expect FSU to have a big game on the ground here. 

North Carolina's offense plays very fast and they make big plays. The Tar Heels rank in the top ten in pass plays of more than 30 yards. Florida State ranks in the bottom 20 in the nation in allowing explosive plays. The Seminoles defense is a real concern, and I see North Carolina putting up plenty of points here too.

Back and forth in this one. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are playing quickly still, and their defense is very weak. UCF has changed the way they play with Scott Frost as head coach. He has termed the team "UCFast". Here is another chance for them to play very quickly against an opponent who wants to do the same.

These offenses aren't the most efficient ever, but at a number of only 57.5 I have to go with a big play on the over. My projected number here was 65. 

With this many possessions for each team, I expect there to be enough big plays to get us past the posted total.

Take the over big. 

*Note- this line has moved since I sent it out to clients early this week- but I still like the play at current levels for a top rated selection*

*4 Star NCAA FB Early Bird Special* The Georgia State Panthers offense had a really good quarterback in Nick Arbuckle the last couple years. Arbuckle put up huge stats for this team, and the Panthers offense was solid last season. Look at the last two meetings with Appalachian State though, and you'll see that Georgia State could do nothing on offense. Importantly, that was with Arbuckle under center. Georgia State scored 0 points and had only 62 yards of total offense two years ago! Last year, they scored only 3 points. 

It's hard to see Georgia State scoring many in this game. The Panthers have talent downgrades at some key positions on the offensive end, and Appalachian State has the best defense in the Sun Belt. Another important factor in this game is Appalachian State's pace of play. They rank among the slowest teams in the nation. The Mountaineers should be glad to run the football late to just use up the clock.

Marcus Cox is the Mountaineers star at RB and he is doubtful for this game. The Mountaineers will still score plenty of points here, but it definitely is a downgrade. 

A blowout win for App State with the defense dominating should be expected. 

The under is 7-0 in GA State's last 7 on turf. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 conference games. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two. A 14-0 angle. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Rams rank 4th in yards per pass allowed in the NFL. The Rams front four is excellent, and they should be able to put enough pressure on Jameis Winston to make life relatively difficult on him. Doug Martin is out for this game, and that definitely hurts the Bucs offense. Tampa Bay becomes more one-dimensional without him, and that should help the Rams defense get after Winston even more.

The Tampa Bay defense hasn't been great so far this year, but the Rams offense is bad enough that it can make a mediocre defense look good. Case Keenum just doesn't look like the answer to me. Even more discouraging for the Rams has to be the play of the offensive line and the running of Todd Gurley. Tampa Bay's defense is much better against the run (3.0 ypc) than the pass, and I don't see Keenum being a guy who can exploit the Tampa Bay secondary.

The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 4 September games. The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 4 vs. the NFC. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 15 points or less. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Contrarian Play* The Seattle Seahawks offense has been bad so far this year. They have had two games go well under the posted total. That's why the public, which normally bets overs, is taking the under in this one. I'm going to go against popular opinion and suggest a play on the over here.

Chip Kelly's San Francisco offense scored 28 points on a good Rams defense and 27 points on a very good Carolina defense. The 49ers play at the fastest pace in the NFL. They'll get plenty of possessions here. 

Seattle has their chance to break out on offense in this one. The San Francisco defense looked bad last week against Carolina. Seattle is a favorite here by a wide margin, and if the 49ers get down early, they will play extremely fast late in the game. They did precisely this last weekend against Carolina, and that game was a shootout late in the game.

I think Seattle can make some big plays on the outside throughout this game. 

The last meeting between these two was 29-13, and that was before Chip Kelly and his faster tempo came to San Francisco. 

There won't be many times you'll be able to take over 41 in a game with Chip Kelly as one of the coaches. Too much value to pass up. Grab the over in this one.

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have both seen their lineups heat up of late. These two have been playing some really high scoring games against each other. How high? 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams have seen at least 13 runs scored in the game! In this series so far it has been 9-8, 10-5, and 10-8. 

Jake Thompson is struggling for the Phillies. Thompson starts here and he has a 5.62 ERA and a 5.93 FIP on the year. The Mets are swinging with confidence now and I think they get to him in this one. Thompson doesn't pitch deep in the game very often and this Phillies bullpen has the second worst ERA in baseball in the past month. 

Robert Gsellman has pitched pretty well in the majors so far for the Mets. Still, he had a 5.73 ERA and a 5.20 FIP in Triple A this year. I think he is due for regression. He struggled in his one outing against the Phillies this season as well.

The over is 4-0-2 in the Phillies last 6. The over is 66-30-5 in the last 101 meetings between these two teams. Take the over. 

*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New York Giants gained 417 yards last weekend. They struggled getting the ball into the end zone, but New York's offense moved the ball very well. New York now has three very good receiving options: Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz, and Sterling Shephard. Eli Manning can be very good when given time to throw, and with this many weapons I see the Giants offense being better than expected.

The Washington Redskins defense has been torched by both Pittsburgh and Dallas. Pittsburgh has a very good offense, but Dallas' offense is questionable right now and they put up 27 points without being very good in the red zone. Washington's defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Look for Manning to have a big day.

Kirk Cousins has been under fire, but he has had some success in the past against the Giants. The Giants defense isn't as good as they have looked so far this year.

Both of these teams are playing at a relatively quick tempo. With the total down to 45.5, I think all the value is on the over.

The over is 7-0 in the Redskins last 7 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 250 passing yards or more. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The Cal Golden Bears play extremely fast, and they play absolutely zero defense. Arizona State plays almost as fast, and their defense isn't good either. It was 48-46 last time these two met and I see another shootout here. I projected this total at 89 points, so I'm glad to get this number. 

Cal's Webb is a great fit at quarterback, and he has some nice playmakers around him. The Arizona State secondary is a major weakness. Look at what happened when they played Texas Tech earlier this year. 

Tons of tempo and the offenses with the edge all night. Shootout on the West Coast here. I certainly don't like to make a habit of taking overs at this kind of number, but it wouldn't surprise me if this game got to 100 points combined with the kind of tackling I've seen out of these two defenses so far this year.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers are still playing at a pretty quick pace this year. They use the spread offense. Bowling Green is playing at the ninth fastest pace of any team in the country. Bowling Green's offensive numbers this year don't look impressive, but I think that is at least somewhat understandable.

Bowling Green faced a great Ohio State defense in week one. Last week, they played against MTSU in a monsoon, where the field was tearing up and the offenses were stalling out late in the game. The Falcons should still be able to score quite a few in the long term. At the same time, the Bowling Green defense is among the worst in football, and they'll give up a lot of quick scores throughout the year.

Take the over.  

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense is going to score a lot of points this year. Tony Franklin is their new offensive coordinator and he is looking to push the tempo at every opportunity. Brent Stockstill is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and Franklin is great at coaching up quarterbacks. I see huge things ahead for Stockstill. 

Louisiana Tech's defense lost just about everything from a year ago. The Bulldogs allowed 24 points against lowly South Carolina State two weeks ago, and then Texas Tech put up 59 points on them last weekend. I'm not suggesting MTSU will score 59, but they should score a lot.

At the same time, MTSU has been gashed in the running game two weeks in a row. Vanderbilt ran for 231 yards two weeks ago. Bowling Green, who had been bad running the football prior to last week, ran for a whopping 304 yards against MTSU last weekend. Craft is averaging better than 7 yards per carry for LA Tech and the Bulldogs have a long history of producing good running backs. LA Tech should score a lot here as well.

Nice weather and two high powered offenses. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The Fresno State Bulldogs aren't any good this year, but they want to play quickly. That plays right into the hands of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Tulsa has played some pretty good defenses this year, and that has kept their numbers down. That gives us line value to take the over here. 

The Fresno State defense will rank among the bottom 10 or 20 in the nation at the end of the year, and this is a defense that Tulsa's run and shoot offense should carve up. Look for Dane Evans and Keevan Lucas to have huge days. I think the Fresno State defense will be particularly vulnerable to teams who can spread them out and that is what Tulsa is great at on the offensive end. 

Tulsa gave up the second most points in the country last year at almost 40 points per game. Fresno State should be able to put up enough to get us there. Virgil is a guy who many believe can turn into a solid quarterback in time, and he is up against a weak defense.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The North Carolina Tar Heels always like to play quickly. I don't expect that to change in this one. North Carolina's Mitch Trubisky will improve in this offense as the season moves along. He has plenty of weapons around him, and in this one he is up against a really weak Pittsburgh secondary.

Pittsburgh's problem on defense is they are having to send blitzes to get pressure on the quarterback, and they simply don't have enough talent in the secondary to constantly send blitzes. Still, Pat Narduzzi's style is to be aggressive on defense. North Carolina should be able to beat them over the top some as both Penn State and Oklahoma State did in recent weeks. The Cowboys Mason Rudolph threw for a ridiculous 372 yards in the first half alone last weekend.

Pitt's offense is improved this year. They have a new system that is taking more chances, and I like what I've seen from this group. North Carolina's defensive line isn't very good against the run, and Pitt can do damage there. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Both of these offenses are better than they were a year ago. In last year's game, the final was 36-31. UTSA's Dalton Sturm is a much improved quarterback, and against a team like ODU he should have plenty of ability to extend plays as he is so good at doing. The Roadrunners have a new offensive system which I believe suits their skillsets better than last year's.

Old Dominion has the best offensive line they have had in years. The Monarchs have a very solid group of running backs, and I see them having a big day here. Old Dominion saw their last 7 games last season go over this posted total. 

In last year's contest between these two, there were almost 1,000 yards. The weather is forecasted to be nice for this one. I have to side with the over in this one. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Virginia Tech Hokies are a different team this year. They are spreading things out and playing much faster. Justin Fuente had a ton of success with this style of play at Memphis, and now he is implementing it here. The Hokies have been pretty good so far this year. They put up 49 points against a good Boston College defense last week. They also scored 24 on a good Tennessee defense the week before.

East Carolina beat Virginia Tech 35-28 last year. The Pirates will get Virginia Tech's best effort here. East Carolina has been better than I expected this year, mainly because they have a top ten passing attack in the country. East Carolina is looking to play quickly, and that should give them opportunities here.

East Carolina's secondary is a weak spot, and I think Virginia Tech can exploit it. The Hokies don't have a dominating defense this year, and ECU should score plenty as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Can Kent score here? Kent State hasn't been able to do anything on offense all year. They can barely score on FCS teams. I'll be surprised if the Golden Flashes put up more than 7 points here. Alabama has no real reason to drive Kent State into the ground here. Rather, it would make far more sense for the Crimson Tide to take care of business, stay healthy, and move onto the next week.

Look for a sloppy game where the under cashes in because Alabama is unmotivated. Remember, they are coming off a game where they got their revenge against Ole Miss. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers are trying to play at a quicker tempo this year. Purdue does have the ability to get yards this year. In fact, they moved up and down the field against a pretty good Cincinnati defense. They just turned it over five times. If they can avoid the turnover, they should be able to score quite a few on a weak Nevada defense.

Nevada runs the spread offense, and they have a veteran (Stewart) at quarterback who should pick apart this soft Purdue defense.

My numbers made this total 62.5, so I see plenty of value. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* In the past five years, Doug Eddings has called a higher percentage of pitches a strike than any other umpire in the majors. It's no surprise then that he is a very good under umpire. Eddings is behind home plate for this one. 

Chris Sale is the starter for the White Sox in this one. Sale has had another very good season, and he's a up against a weak hitting Phillies lineup. Sale consistently pitches deep into the game, and I see him doing that again in this one. Sale has a very good 2.87 career ERA with Eddings behind home plate.

Jerad Eickhoff has lost a lot of games, but he hasn't pitched poorly for the Phillies. Eickhoff doesn't get run support. Eickhoff has a solid 3.74 ERA this year, and his career ERA at home is 3.30. He faces a White Sox lineup that has struggled against right handed pitching all year. 

The under is 27-12-2 in Eddings' last 41 interleague games behind the plate. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Edinson Volquez has been absolutely awful in the last couple months. Volquez has allowed 4 runs or more in 9 of his last 10 starts. That's just remarkably bad, and he goes up against a Cleveland Indians lineup that has been really good at home this year. The over is 45-27-3 in the Indians home games this year. 

How has Volquez been in Cleveland? Terrible. Volquez has an 8.51 ERA in five career starts at Cleveland. Can we really expect him to turn it around here? I don't have any reason to think he will.

Josh Tomlin has been terrible of late as well. The home run has been a big problem for Tomlin. The Royals have been swinging the bat really well of late, and Tomlin has a 4.66 ERA against Kansas City in his career. Tomlin has allowed 6 runs or more in 4 of his last 6 starts. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the Royals last 5 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 6-0-1 in the Royals last 7 during game one of a series. The over is 5-0 in Volquez's last 5 Tuesday starts. The over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 starts on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 starts overall. The over is 6-0-1 in his last 7 vs. the AL Central. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 35-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Eagles/Bears Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Eagles played at the quickest tempo in the league last year with Chip Kelly at the helm, but things will be much different this year. Based on Doug Pederson's background, I expect the Eagles to rank among the five slowest paced teams in the league this year. The Bears have typically ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of pace of play as well, and I don't see that changing this year. 

There is no doubt that the Bears defense is much better this year than last season. They have upgraded in a big way at the linebacker position, and I expect Danny Trevathan to have a great year for them. 

The Eagles defense has no glaring weaknesses, and Philadelphia is going to be much better defensively now that they aren't on the field all the time like they were last season. 

Wentz was good in his first game, but that was against a terrible Browns defense. Jay Cutler isn't a guy I like to trust either. 

I see a low scoring battle all the way.

The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 after allowing 15 points or less last game. The under is 5-0 in the Eagles last 5 September games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win by 14 points or more. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NFL Sunday Night CASH* The Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers in a key divisional game. Minnesota is opening up their new stadium here, and the stakes are always high when these two meet. These are the teams expected to compete for the NFC North. The Vikings topped Green Bay on the road to win the division last year. 

The Vikings appear ready to start Sam Bradford at quarterback in this game. Bradford has only been around the team about two weeks, so he can't know the entire playbook very well. We know the Vikings will play it close to the vest here, because they are already one of the most conservative play calling teams in the NFL (arguably the most conservative). 

The Vikings have the big edge in the trenches in this game. The Packers have the much better quarterback. I don't think the Packers defense will let Peterson have a huge game here, and the Vikings defense has been solid against Rodgers recently.

This looks like one of those very hard fought games where someone wins 17-14 or 20-17. 

The under is 10-1 in the Vikings last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 11-5 in the Packers last 16 games. Take the under in this one. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Robbie Ray has been throwing the ball extremely well of late. Ray has a FIP of 3.60 or lower in seven straight games. He has been racking up the strikeouts. Ray has 41 strikeouts in his last five starts. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers have a combined .198 average against Robbie Ray. While the Dodgers are great against right handed pitching, they have been really weak against lefties all year. The Dodgers average 4.88 runs per game against righties and 3.44 runs per game against lefties. The Dodgers rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. 

The Dodgers start Jose De Leon here. De Leon is one of the team's best pitching prospects and he has been sustaining very high strikeout rates in the minors. He is punching out 12 batters per nine innings over the long run. That will go down some in the big leagues, but his swing and miss rate makes me high on his potential. 

Ryan Blakeney is behind the plate, and in all 3 games he has been behind the plate for with a total of 10 or higher this year, the under has cashed in.

The under is 6-0-1 in the Dodgers last 7 games following a win. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games. The under is 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The under is 3-0-1 in the Dbacks last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 24-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Houston Texans defense will be one of the best in the NFL all year. They have run stuffers and obviously they have amazing pass rushers all over the field. Kansas City's defense is also one that I believe is better than the average defense in the league.

Kansas City had to play a quick tempo in the second half to make their miraculous comeback against San Diego last week, but year after year under Andy Reid they have ranked as one of the slowest paced teams in the league. The Texans have slowed their pace of play down this season as they have a new quarterback in the system.

I think both offenses will keep things quite vanilla in this one. Look for a lot of running plays that keep the clock ticking. I expect to see a very close game all the way where the defenses have the upper hand. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star CFB Saturday Late Night BAILOUT* The Arizona Wildcats offense hasn't been able to get going so far this year, but I think they have found the perfect tonic for their problems: the Hawaii defense. Hawaii gave up 51 points to Cal. They allowed 63 points at Michigan. They allowed 36 points to Tennessee Martin (an FCS team). 

Arizona's Anu Solomon is questionable for this game, but I feel confident in either Solomon or backup Brandon Dawkins in this one. In fact, Dawkins is one of the most highly touted quarterback recruits to go to Arizona. Nick Wilson should be able to have a big day here. Hawaii allowed more than 200 rushing yards to Tennessee Martin, and that tells you a lot. 

The Hawaii offense is definitely improved this year with new coach Nick Rolovich. Woolsey is a decent quarterback who can spread the ball around. This Arizona defense allowed 35.8 points per game last year. I do believe they are some better this year, but they are still going to allow plenty of yards and points.

This total has gotten too low based on Arizona's initial problems on offense this year. I'll take the value on the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Shelby Miller has been one of the worst starters in baseball this year. Miller has a 7.12 ERA on the season. He has been giving up hard contact all year. Last year, 26.9% of opponents batted balls were hard contact. This year it is up to 35.0%. That's a huge change and it tells you a lot. Miller has struggled with his command both inside and outside of the strike zone. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been much better in the second half of the season, and they have been crushing right handed pitching. Add in the fact that Arizona has the single worst bullpen in baseball now, and I see a real chance for the Dodgers to put up a big number here.

Brock Stewart is a pretty good prospect for the Dodgers, but in his two road starts this year he has allowed 14 runs in just 9 innings pitched. The Diamondbacks offense can score runs at home, and I see Stewart getting into some trouble here.

The over is 37-14-1 in the DBacks last 52 home games. The Chase Field roof is slated to be open, which is a big help for the over. Jerry Meals is behind home plate here, and he is one of the best over umpires in baseball. Take the over. 

*5 Star SEC TOP Total CRUSHER* The Missouri Tigers are playing much faster this year. There is no question about that. The part that I question is whether their offense is efficient enough for totals to be going this high against a good defense. The posted total here opened at 45 points. It' now sits at 56 points. Now, I wouldn't have played the under at 45 points, but I definitely have to play it at 56 points. 

Missouri is 25th in the nation in tempo, so they are playing quickly. However, Missouri ranks in the bottom 25 teams in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. Drew Lock is only a mediocre quarterback and the Tigers offensive line and running game aren't very good.

The Georgia Bulldogs have a defensive minded coach in Kirby Smart. I don't expect to see Georgia get carved up by this faster paced Missouri offense here.

Georgia is a very slow paced team. The Bulldogs offensive coordinator came from Pittsburgh, and the Panthers ranked among the ten slowest paced teams in the country last year. The Bulldogs have all sorts of question marks on their offense right now. 

Georgia doesn't know who to play at quarterback, and that's always a problem. The offensive line wasn't expected to be a problem, but they have been bad so far this year. They didn't even average 4 yards per carry against Nicholls State. Missouri's strength is their defensive line, and I see them being able to slow down this Georgia offense.

I know these teams are different this year, but the final was 9-6 last year when they played and it was 34-0 two years ago. I don't see this game blowing up and being really high scoring. My number is 49 points here.

The under is 4-0 in Georgia's last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing less than 275 total yards last game. The under is 11-0 in their last 11 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. The under is 5-0 in Missouri's last 5 games following a straight up win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win by 20 points or more. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two. A 33-0 angle. 

Take the under big. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen and Tulane Green Wave both want to run the ball nearly every play. That much running of the football means the clock will be rolling almost all the time. Tulane runs the option now with new coach Willie Fritz and Navy has a ton of experience running and defending the option obviously. Tulane has slowed Navy down better than the average team in the past couple tries (last year they actually outgained Navy in a 31-14 loss), and their experience defending the option this year can do nothing but help. 

I had this one lined at 42 points, so I see significant value. Take the under big. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights are looking to play a very fast tempo this year. UCF has Scott Frost as their new head coach and he's been at Oregon in the past. UCF gets a good chance to play much faster in this one as they take on a Maryland team who wants to play much quicker this year as well with D.J. Durkin at the helm.

Maryland put up 41 points against FIU last week, and FIU is a team that slows the game down. UCF won't slow things down, and the UCF defense isn't what it was a couple years ago. With their quicker pace, I expect UCF's defensive numbers to be poor this year.

Justin Holman is questionable at quarterback for UCF, so I've kept this down to a 3 star play instead of something bigger, but I believe UCF can score some here regardless of who plays. Maryland's defense is nothing better than mediocre.

Tempo is the key in this one. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Week* The Georgia Southern Eagles have one of the top three rushing attacks in the country. Georgia Southern's Matt Breida is a monster in the backfield, and he's going to rack up at least 1,500 yards again this year. Both Upshaw and Ellison are excellent at the quarterback spot. This is a potent running attack that can break huge plays against weak defenses.

Louisiana Monroe is one of the worst teams in all of college football. Their single biggest weakness is stopping the run. This is a recipe for disaster for them. Monroe's defense is at least as bad as a year ago, and Georgia Southern rolled up 503 yards of offense and 51 points when playing at LA Monroe last season. It won't surprise me if Georgia Southern gets around 50 again here. 

Louisiana Monroe plays a much different style on offense this year than they did last season. Last year, they were one of the slowest paced teams in the country. New Coach Matt Viator has them spreading out things and looking to play quickly this year. Sophomore quarterback Garrett Smith is a pretty solid quarterback, and I expect him to have some pretty good numbers in this system.

Georgia Southern's biggest weakness is their secondary, where they had to replace everyone from a year ago. The Eagles haven't been tested in the secondary so far this year, but I think LA Monroe can get some plays down the field in this one. 

Last year's game was 51-31 with both teams playing slowly. The defenses are worse on the whole this year, and the tempo will be quicker. 

The over is 30-13-1 in LA Monroe's last 44 games vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the over big. 

*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here is pretty ugly. Showers throughout this game and even more importantly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph. That should slow things down in this game. Colorado relies heavily on the passing game, and I don't see them having much success throwing the ball in these conditions. Michigan's front seven on defense are too good for Colorado's offensive line. The Buffaloes are unlikely to be able to run the ball here.

Michigan plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Because they have seen 9 straight games go over the posted total at home, the total has been inflated by the oddsmakers on this game. Without the weather, I would have passed here. With the bad weather, I think this one is worth a play on the under. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Syracuse defense looked about as hapless as you could look in last week's loss to Louisville. If it weren't for Louisville turning it over in key situations, they would have scored 70 points or more against this Cuse defense. South Florida's Quinten Flowers is a very underrated quarterback, and he plays a lot like Lamar Jackson from Louisville. He isn't quite as good, but he can do similar things. He'll have a field day against this Syracuse defense that is thin up front and is now missing two cornerbacks due to injuries.

Syracuse's offense should just improve over time as Dino Babers has proven to be a great offensive minded coach. Dungey fits the system well. 

USF put up 48 on Northern Illinois last week, and I think they score that many or more here as well. Syracuse should be able to score enough to get us well past the total. Take the over big. 

*I had this one projected at 80 points, so even with the line move during the week I still like the over in this game. Thank you*

*5 Star TOP Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders are playing much quicker with Tony Franklin as their offensive coordinator and Brent Stockstill is a great guy to have under center in this type of offense. MTSU should move the ball at will against this terrible Bowling Green defense. MTSU moved it easily against Vanderbilt last week and then had turnovers and penalties. This week, they play a much worse defense.

Bowling Green hasn't been able to get the offense rolling this year, but I think they do this week. MTSU is weak on the defensive front and the Falcons play a tremendous uptempo style of offense. 

There will be a ton of possessions in this game. Take the over big. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER The roof at Chase Field will be open for this one, and that's great news for the over. This is a totally different park when the roof is open. With the hot temperatures (mid 90's) and low humidity, the ball travels extremely well with the roof open here. 

Jorge De La Rosa has a 4.62 ERA at Arizona. De La Rosa is on the downside of his career, and he is up against an Arizona team that has hit left handers about as well as any team in baseball this season. 

Robbie Ray has a 5.24 ERA at home in his career. His road ERA is only 3.68. Ray has struggled when pitching at Chase Field, and the Rockies still have a good lineup.

The Diamondbacks have a team on base percentage of .404 against De La Rosa. The Rockies have a .414 OBP against Ray. 

These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball, and it wouldn't be a surprise at all to see a bunch of runs scored late in this game. 

The over is 4-0 in De La Rosa's last 4 starts vs. DBacks. The over is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The over is 5-0 in De La Rosa's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 13-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The San Francisco 49ers are going to run an uptempo offense under Chip Kelly, but I don't expect them to be very efficient on offense. This is still a team that lacks weapons. Other than going out and grabbing Chip Kelly, I'm not sure this team really did much of anything to improve the offense. 

The St. Louis Rams have all sorts of offensive problems as well. Case Keenum hasn't proven that he is good enough to win games on a consistent basis. The Rams are almost certainly going to want to run the ball and control the clock more here, and that should help the under.

The 49ers defense is a league average defense, and I think that should be good enough to slow down the Rams offense the majority of the game. The Rams defense is a good one. St. Louis might be a bit vulnerable on the deep ball in the secondary, but I don't see the 49ers having the players necessary to take advantage of that weakness.

The under is 38-17-1 in the Rams last 56 road games. The under is 18-5 in the 49ers last 23 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals lost their offensive coordinator from last year. Hue Jackson could be a pretty big loss for Andy Dalton and company. An even bigger loss is Tyler Eifert. Eifert is key for this offense because he opens things up on the outside for AJ Green. Marvin Jones is gone as well, and the Bengals pass receivers are subpar now. Look for the Bengals to struggle through the air against a good secondary. The Jets are solid up front as well, and I see them making life difficult on the Bengals.

The Jets offense isn't filled with stars. It's a group that can get the job done, but it isn't necessarily pretty. Cincinnati's defense has been underrated the last few years, and I believe they'll be good again this season. The Bengals have some talented playmakers on all levels.

The winds are expected to be a bit of an issue here, which should mean even more running the football. I expect a very close game that stays under the total. Take the under. 

*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Chicago Bears defense got much better with the signings of Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman. The Bears now have one of the best groups of linebackers in the NFL. I think this Bears defense is going to surprise to the upside in the season ahead. 

Houston is a defense that is obviously one of the best in the NFL. J.J. Watt's recovery has stunned everyone, and the fact that he is expected to play Sunday is a huge plus. The Bears are going through some transitions on offense, and I don't see Houston as a team that will make it easy on the Bears offense.

I'm very surprised the number was set so high here, and it seems like the sharp players in the market agree. About 81% of the money so far bet on this total has been on the under. Public players don't play this early, so I see most of that as sharp money.

Neither quarterback is all that trustworthy, and we have two of the top ten defenses in the NFL in my book. This one is a strong under play for me. Take the under. 

*3 Star CFB Total DOMINATION* The Iowa Hawkeyes and Iowa State Cyclones are obviously rivals. When these two meet, there is a long history of low scoring games. The last four games between these two have stayed under the total. None of them have gone higher than 48 points. In fact, the game that went over the total five years ago was a triple overtime game where the score was at 48 points at the end of regulation.

Generally, in a rivalry game you see the defenses pick up their level of play. The two teams know each other very well, so there are generally less big plays. I see that type of game here. Iowa State will want to run it a lot with Warren. New Coach Matt Campbell has been all about the running game in his career. I think it continues at Iowa State. 

The Iowa Hawkeyes always prefer to run the ball, and they always play at one the slowest tempos in all of the country. There should be some long drives that take a bunch of time off the clock here.

I will look for this one to stay in the 40's. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* In Edinson Volquez and James Shields we have a matchup of two starting pitchers who are capable of getting blasted at any given time. The opposition can put up a 5 or 6 spot in an inning and it isn't a big surprise.

Volquez has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 8 starts. He's giving up a bunch of hard hit balls, and there's no reason to expect it to change here. The White Sox have shown some signs of life offensively in recent weeks. 

James Shields has a 6.07 ERA on the year and a 6.22 FIP. Shields has allowed 5 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. He has been as bad as anyone in baseball in the last few months. The Royals have been good offensively on the road of late. 

The wind is expected to be blowing out to center at 10-15 mph. Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire and he is a solid over umpire. Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Southern Eagles have the best running game in the country. Matt Breida is one of the most underrated running backs in college football. He will put up some huge numbers this season. 

Georgia Southern ran for 489 yards last year against South Alabama. The Eagles scored 55 points in that game. They probably won't put up that kind of number here, but I do think they'll score a lot. South Alabama's big weakness is their rushing defense, and that is a very bad problem to have against this Georgia Southern offense. Ellison and Upshaw are tremendous QB's for the system, Breida is a great RB, and they have a very good offensive line.

South Alabama did find a much better quarterback this year in Davis. He has some mobility and a strong arm. Georgia Southern returns zero starters in the secondary, and I expect them to get beat deep quite a bit this year. The Eagles are playing a new defensive scheme, and it often takes time to get accustomed to these changes.

I see both teams putting up a solid amount of points here. Take the over. 

*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Week* Navy's offense worked like a well-oiled machine with Keenan Reynolds at the helm. Reynolds graduated with all sorts of records at the school. Navy's offense was going to be down a good amount this year because they lost him, but now they took another big hit when new starting quarterback Tago Smith went down with a season-ending knee injury in week one. 

Will Worth now takes over the job and he is a step down from Smith and a huge step down from Reynolds. Navy is up against one of the best defenses they will play this year this weekend. The UConn Huskies have turned into a really good defense under Bob Diaco. Navy only put up 343 yards (they averaged 425) last year against UConn. The Huskies held Army's option attack to 265 yards and 9 first downs last year. This is a defense that appears ready for the triple option.

UConn's offense struggled to get going all season last year. They struggled badly against Maine (FCS) last weekend also. The Huskies have no clear identity on offense, and I don't see them scoring very many here.

A big key to this game is the tempo that both teams play at. Navy always ranks in the bottom ten in tempo, and UConn is in the slowest quarter of teams in the country. Expect a bunch of running and long drives that eat up the clock. 

Take the under big. TOP Total of the Week. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane played at the second fastest tempo of any team in the nation last year. Their goal is to play even faster this year. They have senior quarterback Dane Evans at the helm, and he knows this offense very well now. Keevan Lucas is back from an injury last year, and he is one of the most underrated receivers in the country. 

Ohio State decided to pick up the tempo on offense this year. Urban Meyer really likes JT Barrett in a fast paced system. The Buckeyes hung 77 points on Bowling Green last week. I'm certainly not going to suggest they'll score that this weekend, but Ohio State should put up a very big number in this contest. Tulsa's defense allowed about 40 points per game last year, and the Golden Hurricane won't face a team with more offensive talent than Ohio State. The Buckeyes have far too many weapons for Tulsa, and Ohio State scoring less than 55 here would surprise me. 

The Buckeyes defense is clearly down from a year ago, and the area where they are most down is likely in the secondary. Tulsa should be able to make some plays throughout this game. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense was tremendous last week. Especially when Kizer was at quarterback. Notre Dame should be able to do whatever they want against this Nevada defense. The Wolf Pack lost a bunch of guys from last year, and they will be totally outclassed.

Nevada is looking to push the tempo more this year, and that's a big reason for this selection. The Wolf Pack have a good ground game and a veteran quarterback. Notre Dame's defense is better than they showed last week against Texas, but they are down quite a bit from a year ago. 

I see Notre Dame giving up some points late here as they will likely rest the starters for next week's big matchup vs. Michigan State. If Notre Dame puts the 2nd stringers in on offense, I still think they keep scoring against this Nevada team. 

I expect a 45-21 type game here. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Clayton Kershaw returns to the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Kershaw was having arguably the best season of his amazing career before going down with an injury. He pitched great in his rehab start, and I see no reason to expect him to struggle here. 

Kershaw has made three career starts in Miami against the Marlins and has a sparkling 1.27 ERA. The Marlins haven't been consistent at the plate of late. While Kershaw won't pitch too deep into the game here, the Dodgers bullpen has been very good in the second half of the season. 

Jose Fernandez counters for the Miami Marlins. Fernandez is one of the top three pitchers in baseball in my book. When he is pitching at home, his numbers are off the chart good. In 40 career starts at home, Fernandez has a 1.57 ERA. He has allowed just 3 earned runs in two home starts against the Dodgers in his career. 

The under is 26-10-1 in Kershaw's last 37 starts. The under is 9-4 in Fernandez's last 13 home starts. A pitcher's duel here. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The New York Mets start Noah Syndergaard in this one. Syndergaard went through a period of time where he seemed to have less than his best stuff, but lately he has been dealing again. Syndergaard has allowed a grand total of 7 hits in his last three starts. Syndergaard has allowed only 3 runs in those three starts. 

Syndergaard will be up against a weak Cincinnati Reds offense in this one. Joey Votto is hitting the cover off the ball, but this offense outside of him just isn't very good. Billy Hamilton being out hurts the Reds a great deal. In his career, Syndergaard has zero walks and 13 strikeouts against the Reds. The Cincinnati hitters have a career .163 average against him. 

Anthony DeSclafani has been excellent this year for the Reds. DeSclafani has made 16 starts this year, and he has allowd 3 runs or less in 13 of those 16 starts. He has allowed just two runs in his last 16 innings pitched. 

While neither bullpen is very good, both of these starters have a long history of pitching deep into the game.

Mark Ripperger is the umpire here, and he is a good under umpire with a high strikeout/walk rate. 

The under is 5-0 in the Reds last 5 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in the Mets last 5 games overall. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The St. Louis Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Pirates have two of the deeper lineups in the National League. Pittsburgh is tanking right now. The Pirates have lost 7 straight games. They won't be back in the postseason this year. The Cardinals are in a Wild Card spot, and they have to keep winning with the Mets right on their heels.

St. Louis has the number two rated offense in baseball (behind only the Cubs) when it comes to weighted on base average away from home. Pittsburgh has allowed 29 runs in their last three games. The Pirates have given up 6 runs or more in six of their last nine contests. St. Louis is more than capable of putting up a big number vs. Ryan Vogelsong and the Pirates bullpen.

Vogelsong is a below average pitcher who has the highest walk rate of his career so far this year. His FIP and XFIP are more than a run higher than his ERA, so regression should be coming. 

Luke Weaver has faced weak lineups in 3 of his first 4 starts in the majors, and this Pirates lineup is a solid one. 

Both bullpens are not pitching well down the stretch. Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is a clear over umpire. 

The over is 14-5 in the Cardinals last 19 road games vs. a right handed pitcher. The over is 36-17-2 in the Pirates last 55 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Detroit Tigers have one of the best lineups in baseball. Detroit got all kinds of people on base yesterday against Yordano Ventura and the Royals, and didn't manage to ever come up with the big hit. They should be able to get a lot of runners on base in this one against Edinson Volquez. It isn't likely that they'll leave the bases packed so often again on Sunday.

To say that Volquez has struggled of late is an understatement. Volquez had a 6.37 ERA in August. He has allowed 4 runs or more in 6 of his last 7 starts. 

Daniel Norris starts for the Tigers. Norris goes against a Royals lineup that hits .270 against lefties (only .254 against righties). The Royals have scored 37 runs in their last 6 games, and they haven't scored less than 4 runs in any of those contests. 

The umpire here is an over umpire, and we have the wind blowing out at 10 mph on a warm day in Kansas City. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars are completely changing up the way they play this year. BYU is going to go from a no huddle offense to an offense that huddles up after every play and uses pro style sets. Ty Detmer's offense is going to look to run the ball much more often and use the tight ends. Expect some long drives from the Cougars that use a lot of clock.

Arizona will continue to play fast, but I do think the BYU defense is plenty good enough to slow down Arizona better than most teams. This Cougars defense is better than it was a year ago, and Arizona has a bunch of question marks at wide receiver.

On defense, I expect Arizona to be better this year. Their new defensive coordinator comes from Boise State where he did a tremendous job. He will make the necessary adjustments to help Arizona slow down BYU here.

This game is totaled too high considering BYU's changes, so I'll grab the value on the under here. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen has been the worst in baseball in the past 30 days, and it hasn't even been close. Colorado's bullpen has 6.93 ERA in the past 14 days. These are two really tired and bad bullpens, and they are meet at Coors Field on Saturday night. 

The second really important factor here is the home plate umpire Tom Woodring. Woodring actually has the single lowest strikes called percentage of any umpire in my database in the past five years. This guy is a great over umpire.

Tyler Chatwood has a 5.43 ERA at home this year. He is coming off the DL, and likely won't pitch too deep into the game. Braden Shipley is making his first career start at Coors Field, and this is a really tough situation for him.

These two lineups are more than capable of blowing up for huge innings here.

The last six contests between these two teams have finished with at least 13 runs in them. This number is very high, but it still isn't high enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star USC/Alabama Total DOMINATION* The Alabama Crimson Tide certainly lost a lot on defense, but I fully expect them to be one of the best defenses in the country again. Several key players actually turned down the NFL. Strong safety Eddie Jackson surprised in coming back, and I expect a huge season out of him. Reuben Foster is set to be a star at the linebacker spot. Alabama is always strong on the defensive front, and this year will be no different. 

Alabama's offense has a question mark at quarterback. I don't think they have anyone who will play as well as Coker did for them last year. The running backs are very talented here, but they are inexperienced. Alabama's offense plays at a slow pace, and I think they will slow things down a bit more for the new starter in game one.

USC has a new starting quarterback as well. Browne has talent, but he isn't likely to have a good game against this strong Crimson Tide defense. The Trojans have a strong offensive line, and I expect their game plan to be to try to run the ball early and often. Running the ball that often takes a lot of time off the clock. The Trojans may have limited success running it, but I don't see them running it well consistently against this defensive front. 

I think this total should have been 49 or 50, so I see plenty of value in this one. Take the under here. 

*4 Star CFB Under Radar Total* The North Texas Mean Green brought in Seth Littrell as their new head coach. They definitely needed something new after a really ugly season a year ago. Littrell wants to totally change the way the Mean Green play, and he has brought in Graham Harrell to run the offense here. Harrell was previously a quarterback in the Texas Tech system, and he is implementing the Air Raid offense at North Texas. Alec Morris is an Alabama transfer, and he'll run this offense this year.

North Texas allowed 41.3 points per game last year. They return 8 starters here, but is that really a good thing when they were this bad? The Mean Green look weak on every level again this season.

SMU Coach Chad Morris looked back at the tape last year and decided he simply didn't like the way SMU failed to push the tempo. He said they played it too cautious last year and things will be different in the year ahead. He said in the offseason, "We tried slowing down last year, and we didn't like it: it's not us." Morris wants the team to be blazing fast this season. How fast? He said, "If the official spotting the ball sets his feet before the ball snaps, we're going too slow." SMU will push the tempo this year.

The Mustangs have a very good quarterback in Matt Davis, and I expect big things from him this year. The receivers are much better this year, and SMU should score easily against North Texas.

SMU allowed a whopping 45.7 points per game last year, and that was before they pushed the tempo. The defense is more experienced, but there will be more possessions this year, and this stop unit is still terrible.

Look for a fast paced high scoring game. Take the over. 

*3 Star CFB Total Value Play* The Georgia Bulldogs are going to be all about the running game this year. Nick Chubb is expected to play here, and reports are that he has looked very good in practice. The Georgia offensive line is one of the best in the SEC once again this year, and they'll be able to run the football against most teams. 

North Carolina gave up 5.2 yards per carry last year and 5.1 yards per carry this year. The Tar Heels have had trouble stopping much lesser running attacks than this Georgia one, and I see them getting gashed here. 

North Carolina has one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Tar Heels lost Marquise Williams and many will expect their offense to be down, but I see this offense being excellent once again. Don't be surprised if they come close to last year's numbers (they averaged more than 40 points per game). The Tar Heels have a great running back in Elijah Hood, and running behind that experienced offensive front, he should have a huge season. Mitch Trubisky was great as a backup last year, and he knows Larry Fedora's system well. This will be the same high-octane offense we saw last year. 

With North Carolina pushing the tempo and Georgia breaking big runs on the ground, I see a back and forth game that goes over the posted total. Take the over here. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks defense returns a ton of talent, and I expect their numbers to be much more like what they were two years ago than last year. Arkansas loses a ton from their offensive line, and the Razorbacks don't have the depth at running back they have had in the past. They also have a new quarterback who will be much weaker than Brandon Allen.

Louisiana Tech has historically had one of the better defenses in their conference. They lost Jeff Driskel and Kenneth Dixon (their star QB and RB) from last year and this offense will be significantly weaker. Now, their projected starter has gotten in trouble with the law and won't start this game. 

The Arkansas offense always moves at a very slow tempo, and that should be the case again this year. Louisiana Tech will likely play slower on offense with Driskel gone as well, especially with a backfield that needs more reps.

This total is several points too high. Take the under big. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins will change it up and run a pro style offense this year. Josh Rosen and this offense are expected to play a little slower (they were 13th fastest in the nation in tempo last year. With Paul Perkins gone, the Bruins have less of a running game to lean on as well. Three UCLA offensive lineman from last year are gone. UCLA lost their top two receivers from a year ago. Rosen is good, but the pieces around him aren't as good this year. 

The Bruins defense should be better than a year ago. Eddie Vanderdoes is an excellent defensive tackle and he missed nearly the whole season last year. The same goes for cornerback Fabian Moreau, who should have a big season this year. UCLA returns nine starters and I expect their defensive numbers to be better.

Texas A&M picked up Trevor Knight to run their offense at QB. Knight isn't a guy that I trust just yet. He is learning a totally new offense, and he'll be up against a good defense. The Aggies primary weakness is their offensive line, and that's important here. 

John Chavis did a great job with this Texas A&M defense a year ago. The Aggies defense should be even better this year. Texas A&M's only question mark on defense is the linebacker spot. The d-line and the secondary both look strong. The Aggies allowed only 22.0 points per game and 380 yards per game last year. 

This number has risen to a point where I believe the under is a value. We'll take the under in this season opener. 

*3 Star Play Over* This number actually opened at 56 and has gone down to 51.5. It's pretty rare that I go against a line move like this, but there's too much value on the over for me to pass on this total. 

Western Michigan's offense is absolutely loaded this year. With Terrell at quarterback they can expect very solid play. Their running backs are better than most backs at the biggest schools in the country, and they have a star at wide receiver in Davis. The offensive front is pretty good as well.

Northwestern's defense was excellent last year. The Wildcats lost a lot up front though, and I see their defensive line being down quite a bit from last year. Western Michigan is going to be one of the better offenses Northwestern plays all year.

Northwestern's offense was very weak last year, but I expect far better production from them here. The Wildcats have a great back in Jackson, and he should have a lot of room to run against a weak Western Michigan front seven. The Broncos allowed 5.1 yards per carry last year. 

This should be a close game throughout, and overtime is certainly a possibility as well. I think a 31-28 type final score here should be expected. 

This number was set too low based on Northwestern being an under machine last year. Things change from year to year and Northwestern is a different team now.  In Western Michigan's last 16 games only 3 of them have gone below this total.

Take the over. 

*5 Star College Football Friday TOP Total* The Colorado Buffaloes offense averaged 24.5 points per game last year, but I expect that number to go up in the year ahead. Colorado brought in a new offensive coordinator from Texas Tech and he is expected to get this team playing at a quicker tempo. Sefo Liufau is healthy, and I see him being a pretty good fit for this offense. The Buffaloes have good depth at both RB and WR, so the tools are there for this offense to work well.

Colorado State lost their entire defensive line and their defensive coordinator from last year. I expect this Rams defense to be down several notches from last year. The Rams are going to give up tons of yards on the ground, and they'll have almost no pass rush. The secondary is a bit weaker, and their numbers should be much worse overall thanks to the very weak pass rush. 

In last year's game, Colorado State gained 500 yards but turned it over in scoring situations. Colorado State's offense also looks to play at a quicker tempo in the second year of Mike Bobo's system. 

Both teams should get a lot of possessions because of the quicker tempo, and 54 isn't a high total at all. I don't think the tempo changes are being accounted for by the oddsmakers in this total. Look for a close game where both quarterbacks play well.

Take the over big. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Louisville Cardinals offense will be much more dynamic this year. Lamar Jackson is the answer at quarterback, and I loved the way he closed out the year for the Cardinals last year. Louisville scored 34 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games last year. They return nine starters on offense this year, and I think this is the year things start to click for them.

Bobby Petrino's teams have usually had explosive offenses in the past. In his third year back, and now with the players to fit his system, there should be a big difference. In this particular game, it should be easy for Louisville to break all kinds of explosive plays (gains of 20 yards or more). Charlotte's defense will rank among the worst in the country this year. The 49ers defensive line is going to be totally overmatched here. 

Charlotte finished last year with the tenth fastest pace of play in the country last year. They are expected to push the tempo again this year. Why are they pushing the pace? I'm not really sure. It doesn't make much sense for a bad team to try to allow their opponent to get more possessions, but that is what they do. 

Charlotte's offense will definitely be better with Kevin Olsen at quarterback. He was very highly touted coming out of high school, and he is the younger brother of Panthers star Greg Olsen. 

The Cardinals defense is good, but they are less experienced than last year, and in a blowout they should give up some points. 

I look for Louisville to top 50 points here, and that makes me like the over. Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* I had the over in last night's game between these two, and that pick didn't work at all. It finished 1-0 in 10 innings. Way off in that one. I'm 8-1 in my last 9 and I'm looking to get a ninth winner in ten selections as I go back to the over once again here. 

There are plenty of reasons for this play. Minnesota's pitching staff is absolutely gassed, and they are starting a guy who hasn't started in the majors since 2013. He is a mediocre Triple A guy, and he's unlikely to be able to quiet the Cleveland bats. Cleveland has been very good this year against lefties, and the Indians have been great offensively at home. The over is 37-23-3 in the Indians 63 home games this year.

Josh Tomlin starts for the Indians and he has been really bad of late. Tomlin has allowed 6 runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts. He hasn't made it through five full innings in any of those outings either. Tomlin is giving up the home run ball at a record pace. He is allowing 3.24 HR's per nine innings in the month of August. In his career, Tomlin has been much worse in the second half of the season on a consistent basis.

These two offenses were quiet last night, but I think they'll be back to hitting again here. An over umpire behind the plate is another bonus in this one.

The over is 40-14-4 in the Twins last 58 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 21-8-3 in Tomlin's last 32 starts. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Cleveland Indians come home after a rough road trip, and they'll look to get back on track here. Minnesota appears to have given up on the season, and the Indians need to take advantage of the Twins in this series.

Minnesota's offense is still scoring runs. The Twins have scored 26 runs in their last four games. The crazy part is they didn't win any of those four games. Minnesota has lost 10 straight games overall. The Twins have allowed 8 runs or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Hector Santiago is on the mound for them against Cleveland in this one, and he is more than capable of giving up a big number. Santiago enters with a 5.16 ERA and a 5.35 FIP. 

The Twins bullpen is on fumes right now, and Santiago has never been a guy to work deep into the game. If he gets pulled early here, there isn't likely to be much in the way of "relief" coming from the bullpen.

Trevor Bauer starts for the Indians here. Bauer has been inconsistent throughout his career. There are a few numbers that jump out at me about him though. Bauer has a career 3.78 ERA in the first half of the season and a 5.16 ERA in the second half of the season. He's been worse in the past month again this year.

Bauer has also struggled against the Twins in his career. In 10 starts against Minnesota, he has a 5.86 ERA. 

The over is 4-0 in Santiago's last 4 starts. The over is 58-24-4 in the Twins last 86 games. The over is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Cleveland between these two teams. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Carlos Rodon has a 2.61 ERA since the All Star break. Rodon has great stuff, and he has the potential to be very good. He is starting to show that potential on a more consistent basis lately. Rodon has had a FIP of 3.32 or lower in each of his last four starts, so it has been no fluke. 

The Mariners have a great lineup against right handed pitching, but they are only mediocre against lefties. I'll look for Rodon to pitch well in this one.

The Chicago White Sox have struggled all year against right handed pitching. Taijuan Walker is inconsistent, but he has a high upside and I think he can keep the White Sox in check here. 

A big help in this game is umpire John Hirschbeck, who is a good under umpire. The weather is also good for an under with moderate temperatures and winds blowing in from center.

The under is 7-0 in Rodon's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Toronto Blue Jays have scored 9, 9, 15, and 8 runs in their last four home contests against the Minnesota Twins. The Twins have allowed a minimum of 8 runs in their last four games, and in 5 of their last 6. This Twins team appears to have packed it in for the season. They are scoring runs, but they aren't competitive because their pitching staff has been awful. The Twins bullpen is totally gassed right now, and that spells trouble against a Jays lineup that is just getting healthy. 

Kyle Gibson is giving up 1.35 homers per nine innings on the road, and this Jays lineup has a ton of power. Gibson also walks nearly 4 per nine innings on the road. Gibson has a career 5.36 ERA in the second half of the season. His career ERA in August is 5.87. Toronto should put up a big number again here.

Minnesota's offense has been hot of late. The Twins should be able to score a few off R.A. Dickey in this one. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Felix Hernandez struggled earlier this year, but he has been throwing the ball significantly better since coming off the disabled list. Hernandez has improved his control quite a bit in his last few outings. The White Sox offense has been decent against lefties this year, but they are poor against right handed pitching.

Chris Sale has pitched into some bad luck in recent outings. If you look at his FIP from his last few outings, it has been 2.65 or lower in his last four straight outings. Sale has a great strikeout/walk rate of late, and that is very important to me. He'll face a Seattle team that is relatively weak against lefties. Kyle Seager is questionable for this one, and Nelson Cruz is less than 100 percent. While the White Sox pen is really bad, I'm counting on Sale to go deep into this one.

Vic Carapazza is behind the plate here, and he is one of the best under umpires in the game, so that is a big boost. 

The under is 16-7 in Sale's last 23 home starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* James Shields has been absolutely abysmal of late. Shields has allowed a ridiculous 28 runs in just 14 innings pitched in his last four starts. Shields has walked 8 guys and struck out only five in those games. His game by game FIP has been 49.65, 12.81, and 12.15 in his last three starts. Those numbers look like numbers from a video game. 

While I don't count the Phillies as a good offense at all, they have certainly been better of late. The Athletics lit up Shields in his last outing, and the Phillies offense is about par with Oakland's offense. 

Jared Eickhoff is inconsistent for the Phillies, and the White Sox bats have woken up in the last few games. This is a hitters park as well.

Both bullpens rank among the worst in baseball this year, and I see runs coming late in this one as well. 

The over is 7-0 in the Phillies last 7 road games. The over is 6-0-1 in the Phillies last 7 after scoring 2 or less last game. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 interleague road games. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Doug Eddings is the umpire behind home plate in this one, and that is great news for under bettors. Eddings has called a higher percentage of pitches a strike than any other umpire in the majors in the past five years. He'll be helping both Tanaka and Iwakuma, who are guys who are already good at painting the corners.

Hisashi Iwakuma has thrown 15 innings with Eddings behind home plate in his career. In those 15 innings he has allowed only 7 hits and one run. He has fanned 14. Iwakuma has four straight quality starts, and he has only allowed 6 runs combined in those four starts. I expect another good outing from him.

Masahiro Tanaka has 0 walks and 29 strikeouts in his last four starts. Tanaka should benefit greatly from Eddings being behind home plate, because the statistics definitely say that Eddings like to ring guys up. Tanaka has held Seattle batters to a miserable .155 average in 71 plate appearances. 

The under is 4-0 in Tanaka's last 4 starts vs. the Mariners. The under is 5-1 in Iwakuma's last 6 starts vs. the Yankees. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in Dodger Stadium on Tuesday night. Madison Bumgarner will toe the rubber for the Giants. Kenta Maeda is on the mound for the Dodgers. 

Madison Bumgarner has a fantastic track record at Dodger Stadium. How good? Bumgarner has a 2.40 ERA in 90 innings pitched in his career at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers lineup has been good of late, but they are much worse against lefties than righties. In fact, the Dodgers have a .221 batting average against lefties and a .258 average against righties on the year.

The Giants offense has been really inconsistent this year. They are hitting .254 against right handed pitching. They are hitting .261 against lefties. Maeda has been very solid for the Dodgers in his first year.

There are a few good trends for this play. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 days or more. The under is also 12-4-1 in Bumgarner's last 17 starts vs. the Dodgers. The under is 4-1 in his last 5 road starts against the Dodgers. Take the under. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the MONTH* The Atlanta Braves offense was one of the worst in baseball through the All Star break, but they have been much better so far in the second half. The Braves offense actually ranks in the top half of the majors in weighted on base average in the past 30 days. 

Arizona's offense has been solid this year. The reason this team is where they are is a pathetic rotation and an even worse bullpen. The over is 39-21-2 in the Diamondbacks home games so far this year.

In this game we have two of the worst bullpens in the game. The Diamondbacks have an unbelievably bad 7.25 ERA in the last month. That's nearly two runs worse than the second worst bullpen in the majors during that time span. The Braves bullpen ranks in the bottom ten in the majors in all key categories.

Rob Whalen has had a lot of trouble in the majors thus far, and he has been especially bad on the road. He has trouble with the home run ball, and Arizona can hit it deep at home. 

Archie Bradley has allowed 22 runs in his last four starts. Bradley has a career ERA of 5.43 at home. 

The over is 5-0 in the Braves last 5 road games. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 games when their opponent scores 5 runs or more the previous game. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 Tuesday games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 6-0 in Bradley's last 6 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0-1 in his last 6 when pitching on 4 days of rest. The over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Arizona. A 54-0 angle. Take the over big! TOP Play of the MONTH

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Kansas City Royals send Danny Duffy to the mound against the Minnesota Twins with Ervin Santana. Both guys come into this game throwing the ball really well. Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. His strike zone is as big as you will find, and that will help both pitchers here.

How good has Duffy been? He has allowed 3 runs or less in 14 of his last 15 starts! In the other start, he only allowed four runs. Duffy's control has been tremendous, and when you aren't putting anyone on base for free it certainly makes life easier.

Ervin Santana has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Santana has only 4 walks and 24 strikeouts in his last four starts. Santana has been better late in the season in his career, and his day ERA this year is much better than his night games ERA. 

The under is 36-14-1 in Miller's last 51 Sunday games behind home plate. The under is 5-0 in Duffy's last 5 home starts vs. the Twins. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. The San Diego Padres rank seventh in the majors in the same category. Both of these teams are far better against lefties than righties. The DBacks average 5.53 runs per game against lefties, and the Padres average 5.56 runs per game against lefties. 

Petco is no longer the tremendous pitching park that it was in the past. In fact, this year alone it ranks in the top ten parks for hitters when it comes to park factors. 

We have two subpar lefties going in this game. Robbie Ray has a 6.00 ERA in four starts vs. the Padres in his career. Clayton Richard has a 4.16 ERA against the DBacks in his career.

Richard has a 5.75 ERA this year despite having been in the bullpen almost the entire time. The Padres lefty has lost some velocity, and I see him as one of the weaker lefties in the majors now.

Both bullpens are worn out after last night, and the DBacks bullpen has a 7.01 ERA in the past month.

The over is 35-17-2 in the DBacks last 54 vs. a lefty. The over is 6-0 in the Padres last 6 home games. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The New York Mets offense has been really bad in recent weeks. They were able to get the offense going a bit against the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks pitching staff, but everyone hits well against the Diamondbacks. New York now has to go to a pitcher's park and take on one of the best starting pitchers in baseball in Madison Bumgarner. 

Bumgarner is the ultimate stopper, and his team needs a big effort from him here. Bumgarner has allowed just one run in his last 15 innings pitched despite having to pitch against Washington and Baltimore in those games. 

Bumgarner has started 5 games in his career against the Mets, and he has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in those games. He hasn't allowed a single run in his last 15 innings pitched against the Mets (6 of them were this year). 

Jacob Degrom has been excellent of late also. Degrom has allowed 1 run or less in 7 of his last 9 starts. That's remarkable consistency from Degrom, and he has simply gotten stronger as the year has gone along. 

Degrom has started 3 games against the Giants in his career and he has allowed only 2 earned runs (a 0.84 ERA). He hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 14 innings pitched against the Giants.

Everything points to a very low scoring game in this one. The under is 6-1 in Degrom's last 7 road starts. The under is 6-2 in Bumgarner's last 8 home starts. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Yu Darvish has been very good this year. Darvish has had a shortened season thanks to an injury, but he has been pitching as good as ever since he has been back. Darvish is striking out 11.60 batters per nine innings and his swinging strike rate is excellent at 12.8%. 

Oakland has been a team that has been difficult on Darvish in the past, but that means less to me now that the Athletics lineup is so much different than it was a year or two ago. Darvish has a 2.77 ERA and his advanced metrics are all excellent so far this year.

Sean Manaea has allowed 3 runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. He has a really high upside, and I like to see his swinging strike rate up at 11.6% like it currently is on the season. 

Kerwin Danley is the umpire here and the under is a massive 72-35-5 in his last 112 games behind the plate.

The under is 4-0 in the Rangers last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0-1 in the A's last 5 road games vs. a home win percentage of 60% or higher. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cleveland Indians will start Corey Kluber in this one. Kluber has pitched really well of late. After a slow start, he is once again commanding his pitches really well. Kluber has allowed 3 runs or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Kluber's strikeout rate has gone up in the past month, and he faces a White Sox team here that strikes out a lot against right handed pitching. 

The White Sox have really struggled offensively against righties this year. They are 23rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching, and they face one of the best right handed pitchers in baseball on Tuesday night. 

Jose Quintana is second to last in the American League in run support. The White Sox are averaging 3.2 runs per game in his starts. Quintana is a very underrated pitcher, and he has been amazing in Cleveland in the past. In 46 and 1/3 innings pitched in Cleveland, Quintana has a brilliant 1.17 ERA. 

The under is 6-0 in Quintana's last 6 starts vs. Cleveland. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 road starts vs. Cleveland. The under is 6-0 in Kluber's last 6 starts vs. the White Sox. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Oakland A's start Zachary Neal here and he hasn't been able to put anyone away all year. He has 11 strikeouts in 29 and 1/3 innings pitched. He had a FIP of well over 4 in Triple A, and I think his days in the majors are likely short lived, at least as a starter. 

Wade LeBlanc has a 4.74 ERA and a 5.64 FIP on the year. This is a guy who has never had much success in the past in the majors, and I don't really expect that to change in the long run either. LeBlanc faces an Oakland lineup that has been better against lefties than righties this year. 

The ball flies significantly better during the day in Oakland, and the wind is blowing out on Sunday. Mark Wegner is the umpire here, and he is a big over umpire. He has a small strike zone and the over is 20-7-2 in his last 29 games behind home plate. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jered Weaver is a really bad pitcher at this stage of his career. Weaver has no velocity and is striking out a measly 4.70 batters per nine innings this year. That's easily the lowest of his career.

The Indians offense ranks third in the majors in wOBA at home this year. They have really been putting up the offensive numbers on their home field. Jered Weaver has an ugly 5.22 ERA on the road this year. He has a 5.19 ERA overall this year, but his XFIP is 5.78, so if anything he has gotten some good luck this year. I think Cleveland puts up a big number here.

Trevor Bauer is really inconsistent. The Angels offense has been good over the last couple months, and Bauer is fully capable of getting shelled. In his career, Bauer has a 3.78 ERA before the All Star Break and a 5.30 ERA after the break. Bauer allowed 25 runs in 5 starts before shutting down Washington last start. I don't think his issues are fixed yet, and I see the Angels scoring several here.

Clint Fagan ranks 82nd out of 89 umpires in my database in strikes called in the past five years, so he is a good over guy. 

Take the over in this one. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Orioles have been in a major offensive slump of late. They have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 10 games. Add in the fact that they are much worse against left handed pitching compared to right handed pitching, and this looks like a good spot for Madison Bumgarner. The Orioles have a .269 average against righties and only a .234 average against lefties. 

Kevin Gausman has 4 very good starts in his last 5 outings. Gausman gives up a lot of fly balls, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing at AT&T Park. The Giants offense has been inconsistent the whole year. 

The Orioles lose a hitter here in the NL park, and that's a positive for the under as well.

Brian O'Nora is a solid under umpire because of his strikes called percentage long-term. He'll help both pitchers. 

The under is 4-0 in the Orioles last 4 interleague games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 8-0 in Gausman's last 8 starts when the Orioles score 5 runs or more last game. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 home games vs. a righty. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games. The under is 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 40-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Minnesota Twins have been a tremendous over team all year. Minnesota is hitting the ball really well of late, and their pitching staff has been awful. What has that meant? Loads of overs. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 games. Why? Because one team has scored 6 runs or more in 9 of their 10 games. In fact, in 3 of the Twins last 10 games there has been a 10 spot put up by one side alone. The Twins bullpen has been used very heavily of late, and they are worn down.

Tyler Duffey has a miserable 7.22 ERA at home on the year. He threw a good game last time out against the Astros, but this guy has been as inconsistent as anyone in the majors, and expecting two straight strong games from him is a lot to ask.

Dillon Gee doesn't pitch deep into the game, and the Royals bullpen is a mess of late. Their middle relief isn't any good, and they have a ton of injuries in the bullpen. 

The over is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 home games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the AL Central. The over is 6-0 in Duffey's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 21-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Colorado Rockies come into this game without Carlos Gonzalez and Mark Reynolds. This is a wounded team that came to Philadelphia on Thursday night after a long game. 

Philadelphia's offense has been one of the worst in baseball all year. They are hitting just .235 against right handed pitching this year. They are up against a very good righty in Jon Gray on Friday night. Gray has been inconsistent at Coors Field, but on the road he has been great. He has terrific stuff, and I expect him to pitch well against the Phillies for the second time this year.

Jake Thompson starts for the Phillies. Thompson is making just his second major league start. While the Rockies can be a tough matchup at times, he is catching them without a couple of their best hitters. The Rockies have once again been relatively weak offensively on the road this year as well.

The under is 6-1 in Gray's last 7 starts. The under is 8-3 in the Rockies last 11 road games. The under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Jaime Garcia is a totally different pitcher when pitching at home. Garcia has a career 2.79 ERA at home. The Reds have hit him around at Great American Ballpark, but he has consistently been very good against Cincinnati at home. 

While Cincinnati has been more competitive lately, it is primarily due to improved pitching. With Jay Bruce gone, there is no doubt that this lineup is weakened. Anthony Desclafani has a ton of talent and he has been remarkably consistent. In 8 of his last 9 starts he has a quality start. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of those 9 starts. 

Angel Hernandez is a good umpire to have behind the plate for this one, because he is a strike caller. He'll help both pitchers. Garcia has a 1.40 ERA in 3 starts with him behind the dish.

The under is 6-1-1 in Desclafani's last 8 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 18-6-2 in Garcia's last 26 home starts. Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Wily Peralta had a 6.68 ERA in 13 starts with the Brewers this year. He actually started the team's season opener, but then pitched so poorly he was sent down to the minors. Peralta proceeded to make 10 starts in Triple A. He has a 6.31 ERA in Triple A. Peralta can't get guys out at any level right now.

Tyrell Jenkins is a mid level prospect for the Braves. He might end up being a serviceable starter, but he should have a lot of growing pains. He has a 4.33 ERA and a 6.50 FIP so far this year. 

The Braves lineup has come alive somewhat in the last few games. They have scored 5 runs or more five times in that span. They also have an 8 and 13 run performance thrown in there. Against Peralta, they should score several.

The Brewers offense has been hitting the ball well of late, and the Braves have a subpar starter and a poor bullpen as well.

I look for plenty of runs here. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Tuesday's BEST Bet* The Miami Marlins have a really good offense. Dee Gordon is now back and he's the table setter for a great group of young hitters. Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Derek Dietrich are having great seasons. Giancarlo Stanton is coming on a bit and hits left handed pitching really well. The Marlins have always been better against lefties, and Matt Moore is a vulnerable lefty.

Matt Moore has walked 10 guys in his last two starts. Putting guys on base like that will usually hurt you a lot against a deep lineup like the Marlins lineup. Moore is allowing 1.32 HR's per nine innings, and the Marlins have plenty of pop as well.

Tom Koehler is another guy that puts a bunch of runners on base. Koehler has the highest walk rate of his career this season. He has a SIERA of 4.89, and all the advanced metrics are low on him. Koehler is coming off a couple nice starts, which gives us a lower number here on the over.

The Giants lineup is getting healthier, and this offense is very capable of going on a tear.

The over is 6-0 in the Marlins last 6 home games. The over is 9-0 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 7-1 in the Marlins last 8 after allowing more than 5 runs last game. A 22-1 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Michael Fulmer has been excellent this year. I've made good money backing him and the Tigers, but I do believe he is due for some regression soon. Fulmer has been shaky in his last few starts. He has a FIP of 4.78 or higher in his last 3 outings. He has a 2.42 ERA for the year, but his FIP is 3.76 and his SIERA is 3.98. He is stranding 84% of runners on base, which has to come back to normal at some point.

Hisashi Iwakuma has terrible career numbers against this Detroit lineup. The Tigers have a .361 batting average and a .415 OBP against him. Iwakuma isn't the pitcher he was a couple years ago, and I see the Tigers getting to him here.

Both of these bullpens rank in the bottom six in the majors in FIP in the past month. 

Seattle averages more than 5 runs per game against right handed pitching. The Tigers average more than 5 runs per game against right handed pitching as well. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers are way out of the running this year, and it will be a long last couple months for them. Matt Garza is coming off a pretty good start against Pittsburgh, but this is a guy who has allowed 4 runs or more in 5 of his last 7 starts. Garza's strikeout rate is at a career low.

Patrick Corbin has been a big disappointment this year. Corbin has a 5.30 ERA overall and a 6.91 ERA in 10 starts at home this year. Milwaukee is much better against left handed pitching. The Brewers have a .339 OBP vs. lefties compared to only .314 against righties. 

Both lineups have a good history against the opposing starter here, though Milwaukee hasn't faced Corbin often. 

John Tumpane is a bit of an over umpire and that helps as well. Another big help is the bullpens here. Milwaukee's bullpen is a subpar bullpen. The Arizona bullpen is now the worst bullpen in the majors.

The over is 13-3 in the DBacks last 16 home games. The over is 15-5-1 in Corbin's last 21 starts. Take the over. 

*3 Star TGIF Red HOT CASH* It's a showdown between Noah Syndergaard and Justin Verlander here. Syndergaard is arguably baseball's best young pitcher, and Verlander dominated baseball for a long time himself. 

Verlander has turned back the clock in his last few outings. He has allowed 2 runs or less in each of his last six starts. There is little reason to believe the injury-plagued Mets lineup will be the ones to stop that streak. Verlander has a FIP of 1.71 or lower in 3 of his last 6 starts, so it hasn't been good luck, it has been great pitching.

Syndergaard hasn't quite bit at the top of his game the last few starts, but in his short career so far Thor has brought his best for the big games. This is a big game in that it is a much anticipated showdown for him vs. a great Detroit lineup and a Cy Young winner in Verlander.

The Mets offense is a mess now. The Tigers offense is very good, but Syndergaard has the dominant stuff to slow down any offense.

The under is 6-1-1 in Verlander's last 8 home starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Marco Estrada has pitched very well this year. Estrada has a 3.02 ERA on the season. In his career, the Astros lineup has only hit .242 against Estrada. Houston's lineup has been very streaky this year, and of late they have been slumping.

Collin McHugh starts this one for the Astros. McHugh is a quality pitcher who is coming off a really bad start at Detroit. Before that start, he had a tremendous stretch of good starts. He pitches better at home and Toronto has several guys banged up right now.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire and he ranks second in my umpire database in strikes called percentage in the past five years. He loves giving pitchers the edge and that should help both of these guys a great deal.

Houston's bullpen has been tremendous and that is another reason I like this play. 

The under is 31-15-1 in the Astros last 47 games. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Oakland A's offense wasn't good to start with, and now they traded away Josh Reddick. Reddick was by far their best hitter, and he will be badly missed. When he went down with an injury earlier this year, the offense was a mess. I expect Oakland to be one of the worst offenses in the majors the rest of the season.

Matt Shoemaker's line from last outing against KC is misleading. He pitched very well for much of the game and was undone by some questionable calls and one big inning. Shoemaker has been amazing at home in his career (2.79 ERA). He has walked only 2 guys and struck out 19 in his last three outings.

Sean Manaea has been amazing in his last few starts. Manaea has huge upside potential, and he is starting to show it. He hasn't walked a single batter in his last four starts! He has a 4.57 ERA, but a FIP of 3.98.

The under is 3-0-1 in the A's last 4 following a loss. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after giving up 5 runs or more. The under is 4-0 in the Angels last 4 following an off day. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 overall. The under is 4-0 in Shoemaker's last 4 home starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the AL West. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dylan Bundy has an extremely high upside, and he has flashed his potential in his last two starts. Bundy has one walk and 13 strikeouts in his last two games. He has excellent stuff and I like his potential.

Yu Darvish has elite stuff as well. He hasn't been getting wins lately, but it isn't because he has pitched poorly. The Rangers haven't given him run support. Darvish has a 3.09 ERA, but his FIP is a really impressive 2.57. He is striking out 12.66 batters per nine innings, which is the highest of his career.

The Orioles offense is good, but they have been slumping of late. Until they come out of it, I'll look to find spots for unders on them. With the wind blowing in and two pitchers with great upside, I like this as one of them.

The under is 3-0-1 in Darvish's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-0 in the Orioles last 7 home games vs. a righty. The under is 9-0 in their last 9 following a win. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 home games. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less last game. A 35-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Boston Red Sox start lefty Eduardo Rodriguez in this game. Rodriguez was highly touted prospect who struggled early this year, but he recently went down to Triple A and changed up some flaws in his mechanics. Rodriguez has pitched better in his last three outings.

Seattle played the late game at Wrigley Field and lost a heartbreaker in extra innings on Sunday night. They might be a little sluggish in this game, and if anything I think that leads to a lower scoring game. The Mariners rank 20th in wOBA vs. lefties. 

James Paxton has had a bunch of bad luck this year. Paxton has a 4.76 ERA thanks to a very unlucky .376 batting average on balls in play. This is a guy who has a great swinging strike rate of 11.9%. Boston unquestionably has a very good offense, but I think Paxton can at least slow them down.

There has only been one game all year in Seattle with a total this high. Safeco is a great pitchers park and I think this number is just too high to pass up.

The under is 8-0 in the Red Sox last 8 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a lefty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 overall. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL West. The under is 6-0 in Rodriguez's last 6 starts vs a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Seattle. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers have badly needed a starting pitcher. They traded for Lucas Harrell. Harrell isn't necessarily a bad starter, but he also isn't a fix to their problem. Harrell has been pitching in Atlanta and pitching better than expected, but things get much tougher pitching in Texas in the scorching heat and against better lineups. I don't expect Harrell to pitch as well moving forward.

Dillon Gee hasn't gone more than 5 and 1/3 innings in any of his starts this year. Gee 4.54 ERA and a 4.98 FIP. Gee has always been a guy who struggles with the long ball, and that's dangerous in this park.

The weather forecast is ridiculous here. The game time temperature is expected to be 98 degrees. Home plate umpire Pat Hoberg is in my database as a small over umpire, and that helps also. 

Both bullpens struggle in the middle relief, and I think both starters will be out early. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Cleveland Indians start Corey Kluber here. He has five very good starts in his last six outings. Kluber was hit hard by the Toronto Blue Jays in his one bad start, but the Oakland Athletics offense will never be confused with the Blue Jays offense. 

Sonny Gray has been struggling a lot more this year, but his career numbers against the Indians are tremendous. Gray has pitched 28 innings against Cleveland and allowed only 2 runs. That's a 0.64 ERA. Gray also has a career 2.82 ERA in day games (3.60 at night), so this is a good spot for him. 

Helping both pitchers is home plate umpire Hunter Wendelstedt. He has become a good under umpire in the last few years. His strikeout/walk ratio is near the top, and the under is 9-1-2 in his last 12 games behind the plate.

A relatively mild temperature and wind blowing in should benefit this play also. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies have the two worst offenses in the National League. They played to a 2-1 game on Friday night, and I'm looking for a second straight low scoring game in this one. 

Jeremy Hellickson isn't a great pitcher, but he does have a history of quieting weak offenses. Hellickson gives up a lot of fly balls, which isn't a terrible thing when you are pitching in Atlanta against an offense that doesn't have very much power.

Julio Teheran has been really good for the Braves this year. Teheran has a 2.84 ERA at home in his career, and a nice 3.13 ERA in the 2nd half of the season in his career. In 78 and 2/3 innings, Teheran has a 2.29 ERA against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Teheran has received the lowest amount of run support of any pitcher in the big leagues this year at a miserable 2.50 runs per game. Hellickson has received a paltry 3.24 runs per game, which is the 8th lowest of any pitcher in the majors. 

The under is 7-0 in Hellickson's last 7 starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 after a quality start. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 when pitching on 4 days of rest. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 7-0 in Teheran's last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. A 36-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants have gotten a lot of good starts out of Johnny Cueto this year. Cueto has been lights out at home. In his career, Cueto has a 2.26 ERA when pitching at AT&T Park. Washington's offense is very good against lefties, but only mediocre against right handed pitching. The Nationals hit .239 against righties vs. .261 against lefties. 

The San Francisco Giants have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their last 8 games. The Giants offense hasn't been stringing together hits. Tanner Roark is an underrated starter for the Nationals. Roark has had a FIP below 3 in 5 of his last 6 starts. Roark has been good in his career at suppressing home runs. 

Cueto generally pitches deep into the game which gives the Giants bullpen a break. The Nationals have one of the best bullpens in baseball. 

The under is 5-1 in Roark's last 6 starts. The under is 5-2 in Cueto's last 7 home starts. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Danny Duffy takes on Matt Shoemaker on Wednesday night in KC. Phil Cuzzi is the umpire here, and he is one of the best under umpires in baseball. Duffy has been the Royals best starter so far this year. He has been consistent and his walks are way down from last year.

Matt Shoemaker started the season out slowly, but he has been awesome of late. Shoemaker has a 3.99 ERA and a 3.29 FIP, so he is still due some positive regression. The Royals offense has been struggling of late.

Kansas City's bullpen is healthy again, and Shoemaker has been pitching deep into games for the Angels. I see a close low scoring game in this one. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Doug Eddings is the umpire in this one, and that is great news for under bettors. In the past five years, no one has called a higher percentage of pitches a strike than Eddings. He has a very high strikeout to walk ratio. He'll do everything he can to help these two pitchers.

The weather conditions favor the under. The wind will be blowing in from center field at about 10 mph and the temperature will only be in the low 70's for this one.

Both Foltynewicz and Duffey are inconsistent, but they are both young starters with some potential. The Braves have a miserable OBP of .299 against righties and the Twins are a weak .310 in the same category. 

Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Dylan Bundy was the number one rated prospect in the Baltimore organization coming into this year. Bundy has an extremely high upside. He flashed that potential last outing against Cleveland. He faces a free swinging Rockies team that isn't very good offensively on the road in this contest.

Jon Gray is a good pitcher who has a bunch of potential for the Rockies moving forward as well. Gray has allowed 3 runs or less in his last four games. Baltimore's offense is absolutely capable of scoring a bunch, but they have been in a funk of late. The Orioles haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of their last 15 games. 

D.J. Reyburn is the umpire here, and he is a very solid under guy. He'll give both pitchers the corners throughout in this one.

The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring five runs or more last game. The under is 14-0 in the Orioles last 14 games overall. The under is 8-0 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 home games. The under is 11-0 in their last 11 vs. a right handed pitcher. The under is 6-0 in the Orioles last 6 following a loss. A 55-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cincinnati Reds start Anthony Desclafani in this one. Desclafani has very good stuff, and he's in great form coming into this one. Desclafani has been the picture of consistency this year as well. He has gone at least 6 innings in all of his starts except for one. He has also allowed 3 runs or less in all but one of his starts. Desclafani hasn't walked a single batter in his last three outings.

The San Francisco Giants offense is ice cold right now. The Giants miss Hunter Pence and Joe Panik. How bad has this offense been of late? They have scored 2 runs or less in 5 of their 8 games after the All Star break. 

Cincinnati's offense has been inconsistent this year. Jake Peavy starts for the Giants, and he has a solid 3.98 ERA at home this year. This is a great pitchers park and the temperature here is supposed to be only 57 degrees for this game.

The under is 6-0-3 in Desclafani's last 9 starts during game 1 of a series. The under is 3-0-3 in his last 6 starts. The under is 3-0-2 in his last 5 following a quality start. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 following 4 days of rest. The under is 6-0-1 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more last game. A 30-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The weather in Cincinnati is perfect for the over. The heat index is expected to be 102 degrees during the middle of this game. Great American Ballpark is a good hitters park all the time, but it is a great hitters park when the weather is like this. 

Sam Holbrook is the umpire for this game. He ranks 84th out of 88 umpires in called strikes in the past five years according to my umpire database. Holbrook is a very good over umpire. The over is 34-16-3 in his last 53 Sunday games behind the dish.

Zack Godley starts here for Arizona, and I don't think he has the stuff to be a starter. Godley doesn't have enough plus pitches. He doesn't pitch deep into games, and that's a problem for Arizona too. The Diamondbacks bullpen has the single worst ERA in baseball since the All Star break. 

Brandon Finnegan is a lefty with some potential for the Reds, but he has been a mess of late. Finnegan is walking 4.57 batters per 9 innings, so Holbrook is a bad umpire for him to draw. Finnegan doesn't have a FIP below 4 in any of his last five starts. The Diamondbacks rate fourth in the majors in offensive production against lefties.

Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* I had the under on Sunday when these two teams met with this same pitching matchup. The final score was 1-0 as Atlanta scored in the bottom of the 9th to win. I certainly don't expect anything like that at Coors Field, but I do think 11 is too high for these pitchers.

Julio Teheran has been the picture of consistency this year. He has very good numbers against this Rockies lineup as well. Teheran generally pitches pretty deep into the game. 

Jon Gray has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 14 starts. He has been great on the road all year, and of late he has pitched very well at home. Gray has the stuff to be the number one starter for Colorado for a long time.

The weather isn't as hot here as it was a week ago, and that helps as well.

The under is 8-0 in the Braves last 8 following a loss. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more. The under is 7-0-1 in the Braves last 8 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 6-0 in Teheran's last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in Gray's last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 3-0-1 in his last 4 Friday starts. A 36-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Astros start Lance McCullers here. McCullers has been great at home throughout his career. He has a career 2.16 ERA at home. In 104 and 1/3 innings pitched at home in his career, he has 119 strikeouts. McCullers has dominating stuff, and I expect him to perform well here. McCullers has held Angels batters to a .200 average in 60 career plate appearances.

Matt Shoemaker started the year miserably and yet his season long numbers are looking pretty good right now. Shoemaker has a 4.08 ERA and a 3.35 FIP. His control has been amazing in the last couple months, and he's been using his splitter far more often. 

The Astros bullpen doesn't get enough credit. From top to bottom, this is probably the deepest bullpen in baseball. Houston has been a good under team this year in big part because their bullpen is great at shutting down opponents late in the game. 

Both of these two teams rank in the top ten in the majors in defensive runs saved also.

The under is 4-0 in McCullers last 4 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 7-0 in his last 7 overall. The under is 8-0 in his last 8 vs. the AL West. A 33-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Rays have a miserable .302 weighted on base average against right handed pitching, but they have a very good .342 wOBA against lefties. Tampa Bay will face Jorge De La Rosa on Wednesday afternoon at Coors Field. De La Rosa has struggled this year, and this is a difficult spot for him.

Chris Archer hasn't been himself this year. Archer is giving up a bunch of home runs, and he is walking too many people. That's a bad combination for Coors Field. Colorado hits right handed pitching very well.

Coors Field is always a hitters park, but in the afternoon with a 91 degree temperature at gametime, these are perfect conditions for an over.

Paul Emmel is the umpire here, and the over is 86-55 in his last 141 games behind home plate. Take the over.