*4 Star Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Los Angeles Angels start Nick Tropeano here. Tropeano has a great ERA so far this year, but I'm skeptical of his ability to keep up his current level. Tropeano doesn't have high end stuff, and he has been inconsistent in the past. He has also faced Oakland, Minnesota, and Seattle in his first three starts. The Royals will be the best offense he has gone against yet. 

Chris Young is almost 37 years old and his stuff is declining. Young has done a nice job for the Royals, but I think his good run is coming to an end. Young gives up a bunch of fly balls, and the Angels certainly have some power hitters in their lineup. 

Tim Timmons is the umpire here, and he is an over umpire who won't give these guys the corners. 

With two starting pitchers with a lot of question marks, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* The Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals have gone over the posted total in the first two games in this series, and I think this one will go over as well. Chase Field's roof is slated to be open for this one, and that's a huge deal. The ball flies extremely well with the roof open, and I believe the roof being open is worth almost a full run to the total.

Adam Wainwright and Patrick Corbin are both good pitchers, but both are trying to recover from major injuries. Both of these guys have been less than stellar so far this year. As they try to work out the kinks, it's been apparent that they won't be quite as good as they were in the past. Wainwright in particular has dropped off quite a bit.

With the roof open, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total Domination* Chase Field is a great park for hitters with the roof open. Long-term data suggests the roof being open is worth at least one full run to the total in Arizona. 

Shelby Miller has been a mess this year. He's walking all kinds of batters, and the Cardinals have plenty of patient hitters. Arizona's offense is very capable of scoring runs at home, especially with the roof open and the ball flying well. 

The Cardinals have given Carlos Martinez great run support, and Miller is putting so many people on right now. 

For the roof being open, this number is too low. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Tampa Bay Rays host the Baltimore Orioles for a second straight night. Baltimore was shut out by the Rays on Monday night. While this Orioles offense is very good, I think they could struggle again here against Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi has excellent stuff and I expect a breakout season from him this year. Odorizzi has great splits at home in his career.

Ubaldo Jimenez can sometimes struggle with control, but he'll get a lot of help here from Ron Kulpa being the home plate umpire. Kulpa has the single best under record in baseball in the past ten years. Kulpa is a strike calling machine, and Jimenez and Odorizzi will both be getting the corners in this one.

Baltimore's bullpen is great and their defense is excellent as well. Tampa Bay is one of the worst offense in the league against right handed pitching. 

The under is 7-0-1 in the Orioles last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 after giving up 2 runs or less. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the AL East. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in Jimenez's last 4 road starts. The under is 6-0 in his last 6 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. the AL East. 

The under is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 home games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in the Rays last 5 Tuesday games. The under is 3-0-1 in Odorizzi's last 4 on turf. The under is 2-0-2 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 51-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Totals TKO* Rich Hill has been having a nice year, but I don't expect him to quiet this Detroit lineup. The Tigers offense is excellent. They slumped for the 3 game series against Cleveland, but they were back in a big way last night. Detroit is going to score a lot of runs this year.

The Oakland offense isn't very good, but Mike Pelfrey has a way of making bad offenses look good. Quite frankly, Pelfrey is a total gas can right now. Pelfrey has been stranding runners at an epic rate and his performances have been much worse than his pitching lines would indicate. Pelfrey is going to get crushed soon. You just can't count on leaving the bases loaded constantly as he has done this year.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star NBA Red Hot CASH* The Cavs and Pistons are playing this series at an extremely slow tempo. The average pace here has been 89.08 possessions so far this series. That's the slowest first round series in the playoffs by a wide margin so far this year. 

The shooting numbers have actually been good in this series or there would have been some very low scoring games. The total has been adjusted downward slightly in this game, but it isn't enough to keep me off the under.

The public is 62% on the over thus far and the line hasn't moved up. 

I had this line projected at 194.5, so I see clear value here. Take the under. 

*3 Star Warriors/Rockets Total DOMINATION* The Golden State Warriors haven't shot the ball all that well in this series so far. Stephen Curry is expected back for this game, and I think he gives this Warriors team a major shot in the arm. The tempo is always going to be quick when these two teams meet, and there should be a lot of free throws attempted here.

The public is 67% on the under at this time, but the line is moving up, which is a good sign of sharp money on the over. 

The Rockets defense isn't very good, and the Warriors obviously have the best offense in the league. Golden State should be ready for a big game offensively. Houston will get to the line more at home. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play of the Week* The Los Angeles Angels offense is very weak outside of Mike Trout. Trout is obviously a stud, but there is very little help for him in this lineup. Seattle has gotten a little better on offense this year, but they still have holes in their lineup. 

Wade Miley has been hit hard this year, but he has a long history that suggests he is better than his numbers this year appear. Matt Shoemaker is much better at home.

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire, and there isn't a better under umpire in the game than him. Miller has a massive strike zone and he loves to ring batters up.

A very interesting note here: both of these pitchers have much better splits in day games in their career vs. night games. Wade Miley has a 3.41 ERA in day games (4.27 at night). Matt Shoemaker has a 2.72 ERA in day games (3.94 at night). 

The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.3 or higher. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. 

The under is 7-0 in the Angels last 7 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a lefty. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 during game 3 of the series. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 40-0 angle. 

Take the under big. TOP Play of the Week. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Eickhoff and Peralta start for the Phillies and Brewers here. Eickhoff has slightly deceptive stuff, but he should regress to the mean after an excellent start. The Brewers still have several good bats in their lineup.

Wily Peralta is a mess right now. Peralta has spoken recently about his loss of confidence, and he is putting people on base at an amazingly high rate. 

I'm not high on either starter, and then the bullpens are just awful. These are two of the five worst bullpens in baseball. 

Jim Wolf is the umpire here and he rates an over umpire with a smaller than average strike zone. 

The over is 7-1 in Peralta's last 8 starts. The over is 9-2-2 in Wolf's last 13 behind home plate. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Late Night 100% CRUSHER* The Portland Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers meet in game 3 of their series on Saturday night. 

Los Angeles completely shut down Portland's offense in the first two games of the series. Based on both this series so far this year and the past encounters, it appears that Chris Paul is just a very tough matchup for Damian Lillard. Lillard has had a difficult time getting things going against Paul in the past. 

One thing that few realize is how good this Clippers defense is this year. The Clippers rank 4th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are tied with Golden State in his measure. 

There has been one game all year between these two teams (in 6 meetings) that has gone over this total and that was game one of this series based on 3 late tough 3 pointers falling in the last minute of a blowout.

The tempo of this series has been relatively slow and that should continue.

The under is 6-0 in the Blazers last 6 Saturday games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a loss. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. An 18-0 angle. Take the under.  

*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Chase Field roof will be open for this game, and that's very important. Chase Field is a hitter's paradise with the roof open because of the dry heat. The ball flies extremely well in these conditions.

Juan Nicasio takes on Rubby De La Rosa here. Nicasio had a great spring, but he has been shaky in his last couple games, and this is his toughest spot of the year thus far.

De La Rosa has been much worse when pitching at Arizona than anywhere else. I believe that is because he really struggles when the roof is open at Chase Field. De La Rosa has a very high 5.58 ERA at Chase Field in his career. 

The over is 6-0 in the Pirates last 6 road games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs a right handed starter. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a home win percentage of 40% or lower. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL West. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The over is 7-0-1 in De La Rosa's last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs. the NL Central. A 37-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Saturday NBA Fast CASH* The Charlotte Hornets couldn't have possibly played worse defense in the first two games of this series. Miami put on an absolute shooting clinic. The Heat scored 1.35 points per possession over the first two games. To put that in perspective, Golden State was the most efficient offense in the NBA in the regular season. They averaged 1.12 points per possession. 

Miami can't keep shooting the ball that well every game. Charlotte should dig deep in this one, especially with it being at home. 

Additionally, the pace of this series has been the single slowest pace of any series in the NBA playoffs. If that continues, and shooting percentages normalize, this total is far too high.

Look for a return to normal here. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Detroit Tigers have one of the best lineups in the American League. Cleveland has an improved lineup this year, and they are facing a pitcher who is clearly in decline in Anibal Sanchez.

Corey Kluber has some troubling signs in his peripherals. I still believe Kluber is a good pitcher, but he's definitely not at the level he was a couple years ago. It's important to note though that even when Kluber was pitching at his best, Detroit was a team that gave him a lot more trouble than the average team. Kluber has a 4.72 ERA in his career against Detroit.

Anibal Sanchez is definitely not the same pitcher he was a few years ago. Sanchez doesn't have the same strike out pitches and his ERA and other indicators have dropped off severely in the last two years. 

We have a good over umpire here in Adrian Johnson. 

The over is 6-0 in Johnson's last 6 games involving the Indians. The over is 6-0 in Sanchez's last 6 home starts. The over is 5-1 in Kluber's last 6 starts vs. the Tigers. A 17-1 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star Cavs/Pistons Total DOMINATION* The Pistons and Cavs have shot the ball extremely well from 3 point range in the first two games in this series. The first game it was Detroit knocking down everything from long range. Last game it was Cleveland. I would expect some normalized shooting numbers in this game.

Cleveland initially pushed the tempo with Lue as their head coach, but they have slowed things down of late. The average pace of 91 possessions through the first two games of this series shows that this has largely been a halfcourt battle. 

I think this total is posted a few points too high based on the high shooting numbers from the first couple games. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Thursday's MLB BEST Bet* The Detroit Tigers don't have great hitters at the bottom of the order, but from one through five in the order no one is better in all of baseball. Kansas City has a group of very professional hitters who make you work and don't beat themselves.

Mike Pelfrey isn't a good pitcher at all, and I'll be very surprised if he can silence the KC bats like Jordan Zimmermann did last night. Edinson Volquez is better, but I still don't see him as a top flight starter.

The career numbers are staggering when it comes to the pitchers vs. the opposition here. The Tigers have a great .391 OBP against Volquez. The Royals have an amazing .427 OBP against Pelfrey.

The over is 40-18-4 in Detroit's last 62 road games. The over is 8-1 in the last 9 between these two teams. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks meet in a get away game early Thursday afternoon. Johnny Cueto and Shelby Miller are on the mound in this one.

Shelby Miller is off to a bad start this year, but I do believe Miller is a much better pitcher than he has shown so far this year. Miller has a spectacular 2.66 ERA in day games (3.60 at night).

Johnny Cueto has a sparkling 2.58 ERA in day games in his career (3.74 at night). Cueto's best month of the year is April as well.

We are likely to see some regulars sitting out with this being a get away day game. This is a big pitcher's park, and both teams have solid defenses. 

The under is 15-3 in the last 18 meetings between these two. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Bill Miller is the home plate umpire in this one. Miller has been one of the very best under umpires in the game for many years in a row. He loves to punch out guys, and he should get plenty of chances in this game. 

Zack Greinke is off to a slow start, but he will pitch well again this year. Greinke has a stellar 1.96 ERA in more than 36 innings with Miller behind home plate. Madison Bumgarner has a tremendous 1.80 ERA in his 20 innings with Miller behind the dish.

Greinke has a 1.78 ERA pitching at San Francisco. Bumgarner has a 2.54 ERA against Arizona in more than 100 innings. 

The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he has traditionally been one of the very best over umpires in the business. Both Carlos Martinez and Kyle Hendricks have struggled against the opposing lineup in this one. 

Chicago's offense is one of the best in baseball. It's a deep lineup, and one that will make pitchers work very hard this year. St. Louis' offense isn't up to that same level, but they are certainly better than the average lineup.

The posted total here is extremely low. While get away day games can be good for the under, that hasn't been the case in Holbrook's games. The over is 39-13-3 in Holbrook's last 55 Wednesday games behind the plate. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Celtics/Hawks CASH* The Atlanta Hawks and Boston Celtics played to a 102-101 final in Game one. Boston's shooting woes kept that game from being higher scoring. Both Boston and Atlanta love to push the pace, so there's no doubt that the tempo will be quick here. 

Avery Bradley is the Celtics best defender, and it isn't even close. Atlanta's guards will get more open looks with Bradley out with an injury today. The Celtics Isiah Thomas had a bad game one as far as shooting, but he should be better tonight.

We have three overs referees assigned for this game including the single best over referee in the game in Scott Foster. Expect a quick whistle and plenty of free throws. Take the over. 

*3 Star NBA Sunday Total DOMINATION* The Miami Heat did play at a slightly quicker pace at the end of the season, but they still ranked among the ten slowest teams in the league in the last month of the year. Dwyane Wade has long preferred a slow tempo and this Heat team is likely to try to slow the game back down in the playoffs. Charlotte has a slightly slower than average tempo as well. 

Miami ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and Charlotte ranks 9th. Only one of the four meetings in the regular season went over this posted total. The playoffs usually bring better defense and a slower tempo. 

I think this one is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Sunday's BEST Bet* The San Diego Padres offense might be the worst in all of baseball. This is a terrible lineup in every way. They have no stars, and they have very little depth. They'll be up against a good young pitcher in Patrick Corbin. I think Corbin will have a very nice season this year. 

The Arizona lineup isn't very good outside of Paul Goldschmitt either. They have a bad bottom of the order.

These teams played a 14 inning game on Saturday night. I think that means both Corbin and Robbie Erlin will pitch deep into the game to save the bullpen. Since I like both of these lefties pretty well that's a good thing. 

Doug Eddings is a great under umpire, and he's behind the dish here. Eddings has the biggest strike zone of any umpire in the majors. The under is a whopping 37-16-5 in Eddings last 58 Sunday games behind home plate. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Colby Lewis at home is always worth at least an over lean. Lewis has been outright awful at home in the last few years. He routinely has an ERA north of 5 here. He'll be facing an excellent Orioles offense in this game as well. Baltimore is going to put up a lot of runs this year.

Yovani Gallardo is a veteran who isn't a bad pitcher, but he also isn't dominant in any way. The Texas lineup can put up runs especially when playing at home. The middle of this order is a good one. 

Pat Hoberg is behind the plate and he has a small strike zone, so he'll pinch the zone on both pitchers. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Total of the Week* The Minnesota Twins and the Los Angeles Angels meet Saturday afternoon in Minnesota. The Twins got their first win of the season last night in a 5-4 contest. 

Jered Weaver starts for the Angels and in the past that was always a good thing. Weaver is no longer the same pitcher though. Weaver throws 80 mph fastballs and has some terrible peripheral numbers. In 2014, Weaver had a 4.70 ERA on the road. Last year, Weaver had a 6.01 ERA on the road. 

Ricky Nolasco isn't a particularly good pitcher, and he's been particularly bad when pitching at Target Field. Nolasco has a 4.89 ERA at Target Field in his career. Nolasco has been hit hard by the Angels also. This Angels lineup has a tremendous .356 average against Nolasco all time.

John Tumpane is the umpire here and he's a slight over umpire which helps the cause as well.

The over is 6-1 in Weaver's last 7 starts vs. Minnesota. The over is 20-6-1 in the last 27 meetings between these two in Minnesota. Take the over big. TOP RATED Play

*4 Star NBA Playoffs Total DOMINATION* The Indiana Pacers rank third in the NBA in defensive efficiency. The Toronto Raptors ranked 11th in the league in defensive efficiency. While Toronto was 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, the Pacers were way down at number 23. 

In the NBA playoffs, we often see the tempo slow down a great deal. It makes a lot of sense because so much more is on the line. Additionally, the defense usually picks up. Indiana has been playing relatively fast this year, but Toronto at the second slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Raptors should be able to control the tempo on their home floor.

While about 70% of the public bets so far are on the over, the line here has been gradually dropping. That's a good sign of sharp money on the under in this one. 

This total is a few points too high. Take the under here. 

*3 Star MLB Giants/Dodgers Friday Night CASH* It's Madison Bumgarner vs. Clayton Kershaw once again. We've been treated to this matchup a lot here early in the season. Bumgarner and Kershaw bring out the best in each other, and that's why this posted total is so low. While I'm not usually keen on betting under this low of a number, I still think it's a good value.

Bumgarner has an amazing 2.12 career ERA at Dodger Stadium. Kershaw has a career 1.57 ERA against the Giants. He has never had a yearly ERA higher than 2.25 against San Francisco. The Giants hitters have a miserable .199 on base percentage against Kershaw.

Both of these guys are great at pitching deep into the game, and this should be a great low scoring game.

The under is a whopping 21-5-2 in Kershaw's last 28 starts vs. the Giants. The under is 12-3-1 in MadBum's last 16 starts vs. the Dodgers and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts against the Dodgers. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Bill Miller has been the single most reliable under umpire for me in the past few seasons. Miller has a massive strike zone that pitchers love and hitters constantly get frustrated by. This one is a get away day game in the early afternoon. It's likely that some of the better hitters will sit this game out. That combined with the strong under umpire here makes this one a play for me.

Wily Peralta is a wild card. Peralta has pitched well in day games in the past though, and he has Miller behind the dish here. Jaime Garcia has been brilliant at home throughout his career, and he has been amazing against Milwaukee as well. Garcia has a 2.90 ERA in more than 100 career innings against Milwaukee. He has a 2.70 ERA in his career at home.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Tampa Bay Rays offense isn't impressive. Tampa Bay is going to be shutdown by good pitchers a lot this year. I believe Danny Salazar is on the verge of breaking out and becoming an excellent starter. He has all the necessary tools. Salazar dominated Tampa Bay on the road last year, and I think he'll pitch well again here.

Chris Archer's career numbers against Cleveland aren't very good, but those are misleading. None of those starts came last year when Archer took it to the next level. Also, one terrible start skewed his numbers against the Tribe, and that was in his rookie season. Archer is definitely one of the best pitchers in the American League, and he's been at his best early in the season over the course of his career.

Mike Winters is a bit of an under umpire, so that's a nice boost, and this one is a get away day game, which means some solid hitters may be sitting this game out. 

The under is 4-0-2 in the Rays last 6 games. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games. The under is 3-0-2 in their last 5 vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0-1 in Salazar's last 6 starts on 5 days of rest. The under is 4-0-1 in his last 5 road starts. The under is 4-0 in the Indians last 4 on turf. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Totals TKO* The Minnesota Timberwolves have plenty of scorers, and they should be able to score at will against a Pelicans team that is giving up almost 1.19 points per possession in their last 3 contests. Neither of these teams have anything to play for in this game, and I think that definitely is a positive for the over. The over is hitting at a 59% clip in NBA final games of the season in the past five years. No defense here. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Toronto Raptors are sitting their best players tonight, but I still don't expect them to have any trouble scoring against the Nets. Brooklyn has been the worst defense in the NBA by a huge margin in the past 10 games. Brooklyn's tempo has picked up as well, and I don't see Toronto slowing the pace down with their backups tonight. Brooklyn is allowing 1.20 points per possession in their last three games. 

The over is 13-4 in the Nets last 17 home games. The over is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games overall. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* These two offenses are really hitting the ball well in this series so far, and I see plenty of reason to believe that will continue in the series finale. Ubaldo Jimenez has a career 5.90 ERA at Fenway Park. Jimenez has a poor 4.69 ERA in April in his career as well, so he is a slow starter.

Joe Kelly has a career 4.65 ERA in the first half of the season (it is 3.48 in the second half), and the Red Sox starter has had serious problems against Baltimore. Kelly started three games against Baltimore last year, and he had a 7.71 ERA in those games. 

Big innings are always very possible with these two lineups, and these two starting pitchers have been victimized by those huge innings frequently in the past. 

The over is 3-0-1 in the Orioles last 4 road games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0-1 in the Red Sox last 5 games vs. a team with a 60% or higher win percentage. The over is 8-0 in Kelly's last 8 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the AL East. The over is 4-0 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in Kelly's last 6 starts after the Red Sox allowed 5 runs or more last game. A 31-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Seattle Mariners host the Texas Rangers on Tuesday night. Derek Holland had three bad outings against Seattle last year. Before that, he had been dominant against Seattle. Holland has quality stuff, and he has been lights out when pitching in Seattle. Holland has a career 2.39 ERA in Seattle. 

Wade Miley seems like a nice fit for Safeco. Miley is a fly ball pitcher and that's a good thing in a place with a big outfield like this one. Boston's Fenway Park hurt Miley last year, and he should fare much better in Seattle. 

The Rangers lineup is badly banged up right now, and Seattle's lineup is good in the middle, but it isn't very deep.

Doug Eddings is the umpire here, and no umpire has a bigger strike zone than Eddings. 

The under is 4-0 in the Mariners last 4 home games. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Detroit Tigers offense is going to score a lot of runs this year. A top five of Kinsler, Upton, Cabrera, Martinez, and Martinez is tremendous.

Pittsburgh's offense is an underrated offense. Obviously Andrew McCutchen is great, but Marte and Polanco are quickly turning into stars as well. The Pirates lineup is a very deep one.

Juan Nicasio has looked good this year so far, but facing this Tigers lineup is a very stiff test. I don't think he'll fare very well here. Anibal Sanchez isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago. The Pirates lineup will test him throughout.

The over is 8-0 in the Tigers last 8 vs. the NL Central. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague games vs. a right handed starter. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games. The over is 5-0 in Sanchez's last 5 home starts. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 34-0 angle. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Brooklyn Nets couldn't care less right now. Brooklyn is definitely playing out the string. Brooklyn is playing the worst defense in the NBA in the past month and it isn't even close. Brooklyn is allowing 1.14 points per possession in the past month. The Lakers are second worst at 1.12 points per possession. Clearly, Brooklyn is putting forth almost zero effort on defense now.

Brooklyn is without Brook Lopez and Thad Young for their final games. The Nets have played at a much faster tempo without these guys this year.

Washington will likely be without John Wall and Bradley Beal here, but they still have guys who can score. Morris was a key pickup, and he's been hot of late. Sessions and Thornton are pushing the pace in the Wizards backcourt as well. 

The early sharp money is piling in on the over here, and I have to agree with that. When these two met last week, the final was 121-103. With neither team caring to play defense, this should be very high as well. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Cubs and Diamondbacks play their series finale on Sunday afternoon. Chase Field is a great hitters park with the roof open, but that advantage for the hitters goes away when the roof closes. The roof will be closed for this game.

Jake Arrieta's run in the last couple months of the season last year was epic. Arrieta was truly out of this world good during that run. He started right where he left off with an amazing first start this year. Arrieta's cutter is tremendous, and his command of all of his pitches is a big strength. The Diamondbacks lineup has a career .185 average against Arrieta.

Shelby Miller had a bad first outing, but that was with the roof open, and Miller was excellent last season. The Cubs lost a key bat in Schwarber when he went down earlier this week. Chicago's offense will still be very good, but I think Miller's raw stuff should slow them down a bit.

The under is 10-0-2 in Arrieta's last 12 Sunday starts. The under is 4-0-1 in the Cubs last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less last game. The under is 4-0 in the DBacks last 4 Sunday games. An 18-0 angle. Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Early Bird Special* Jeff Locke starts for the Pirates here. Locke is a below average starter. He can log some innings, but his stuff just isn't very good. He struggles to put guys away. 

Tim Melville makes his major league debut on Sunday for the Reds. Melville hasn't been a major prospect in the past, and I'm not very high on his chances of shutting down an above average offense like Pittsburgh's in his first start.

Joe West is the umpire in this one, and that helps this play a lot. West is an umpire that likes to shrink the strike zone and tick off the pitchers. West should frustrate both guys, and I see him being a tough umpire for a new starter like Melville to draw in their debut.

Look for both teams to get a lot of runners on base. As long as they can cash in a decent amount of chances, this one should go over.

The over is 5-0-1 in Locke's last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in the Reds last 6 home games vs. a lefty. The over is 4-0-1 in West's last 5 Sunday games behind home plate. A 15-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies meet on Saturday night. The weather here is a big part of the equation. The wind will be blowing in from center at 20-25 mph through this game. This is a pitcher's park to start with, and with that kind of wind it will be tough on the hitters.

Bartolo Colon has a good history against the Phillies, and this Phillies lineup is a mess outside of a couple guys. Maikel Franco is questionable for this one with an injury, and he is their biggest hitting star. 

Vincent Velasquez is going to be a very good big league pitcher. He has tremendous stuff and I give him a good chance to pitch well here. The Mets offense is solid, but they aren't spectacular.

Take the under. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Bill Miller is arguably the best under umpire in baseball. He has been the single best under umpire for me in the past five years. Miller has a huge strike zone and he loves to ring people up. 

Chris Sale is one of the top five most dominant pitchers in the game, and he should fare very well with Miller behind the dish. The Indians start Cody Anderson. Anderson is only mediocre, but I'm not convinced the White Sox offense is all that good.

The weather here will be helpful with a slight wind blowing in and chilly temperatures. US Cellular can be a very good hitter park in the summer when the ball is carrying, but that won't be the case here.

With Miller behind the plate, I like this to be a very low scoring game. The under is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings in Chicago between these two teams. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* C.C. Sabathia and Mike Pelfrey start for the Yankees and Tigers in this game. Sabathia's worst month of the year in his career has been April, and it isn't even close. Pelfrey's second worst month of the year is April. We have two slow starters in this one.

I took the over in Friday's game between these two and was burned when the Yankees sat just about everyone and then couldn't score a run. They should be able to put up runs just fine against Pelfrey and a poor bullpen here. Detroit is excellent against left handed pitching and Sabathia is certainly in decline. 

Cold weather actually hasn't been bad for overs in the past 10 years. The wind will be blowing out at 20 mph in this one. Both offenses are stacked. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Friday Night BAILOUT* The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in the second game of this series. 

Matt Cain isn't the same pitcher he used to be. Last year, he had an ERA of 5.20 at AT&T Park, which is obviously a pitcher-friendly park. Cain will face a very good Dodgers lineup here, and I don't think he'll fare very well. Cain had a 7.71 ERA in Spring Training this year. 

At the same time, this Giants lineup is much improved. They have some young talent in Panik and Belt, and those guys are coming into their own. Hunter Pence is healthy and swinging the bat very well. They'll be up against Ross Stripling, who will be making his MLB debut here. Stripling has never faced anyone above Double A, and his stuff is average. This is a tough spot for him.

Two very good offenses and two big question marks starting on the mound. Take the over here. 

*4 Star MLB Play of Day* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Chicago Cubs lit up the scoreboard last night, and I like the chances of this being a high scoring game as well. Chase Field is a hitters paradise when the roof is open and the roof is listed as being open. I waited until the official word came from the Diamondbacks on the status of the roof for making this pick. The ball flies much better at Chase Field with an open roof.

The Cubs lineup is absolutely stacked. Ray is nothing more than an average pitcher. The DBacks bullpen is below average right now. Jason Hammel isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't a guy who will completely shutdown many offenses. 

The over is 7-1 in Hammel's last 8 starts. The over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two. Take the over. 

*3 Star TGIF MLB Early Money* The Detroit Tigers and the New York Yankees have two of the best lineups in baseball. Both of these teams are going to score a lot of runs this year. 

This is Detroit's home opener. The weather is going to be nasty for this one. The high here is expected to be 39 degrees. You might think that would be bad for scoring, but that's not what the numbers say. Since 2005, the over has gone 59-47 in MLB games with a temperature of 40 degrees or lower. 

Severino pitched great last year for the Yankees, but he is still an inconsistent youngster. He had some batted ball luck last year that will tough to replicate. On the other side, Jordan Zimmermann steps out of the weak NL East and into the American League, where he'll face much deeper lineups. I like Zimmermann overall, but his upside is far more limited this year in my opinion.

The over is 6-1 in the Tigers last 7 following an off day. Take the over in this one. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Braves offense will be one of the worst in baseball this year. The Washington offense is good, but they aren't elite. Washington has an elite pitching staff. The Nationals rotation and bullpen are top notch. 

Stephen Strasburg hasn't been what some hyped him up to being a few years ago, but his peripheral stats aren't bad either. Strasburg has swing and miss type stuff, and the Braves have a lot of free swingers in this lineup. 

Bud Norris starts for Atlanta and he should benefit from moving to a pitcher-friendly park this year.

Ron Kulpa is the home plate umpire here, and the under is a stunning 194-138 since 2005 in Kulpa's games behind the plate. He consistently has a huge strike zone and that is a big help in this one.

The under is 7-0-1 in the Nats last 8 games. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following an off day. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 vs. the NL East. The under is 6-0 in Strasburg's last 6 road starts. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 6-0-1 in the Braves last 7 games. The under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 home games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. The under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Atlanta. The under is 5-0 in Kulpa's last 5 games involving the Braves. A 64-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners square off in a series finale in Arlington on Wednesday afternoon. I had Seattle in the first game of this series and that was a brutal loss as the Rangers won 3-2 despite only getting one hit all game. Seattle bounced back and thumped Texas 10-2 on Tuesday. 

Colby Lewis has been a terrible pitcher in Arlington for quite some time. Lewis has an ERA of 5.50 at home in his last two seasons. He also has an ERA of 5.34 in day games. Seattle should get plenty of scoring chances here. Wade Miley has been inconsistent and this Rangers lineup is pretty solid from top to bottom, especially against lefties. 

The Seattle bullpen is decent, but the Texas bullpen is awful. The wind is blowing out at 20 mph, which is key in this park. 

The over is 38-15-3 in Lewis' last 56 home starts. Take the over. 

*5 Star MLB TOP Play Totals SMASHER* Scott Kazmir was roughed up in Spring Training this year. I'm not one who puts too much stock in Spring Training overall, but Kazmir's velocity was way down and that isn't a good sign. The Padres offense isn't all that good, but they should get some scoring chances against Kazmir if his velocity continues to be down.

James Shields is likely past the peak of his career. Shields gives up too many baserunners for me to like him too much. The Dodgers offense showed last night what they are capable of, and Shields hasn't been very good at PetCo Park in his time with the Padres.

This is an extremely low posted total. The changes at PetCo have made it less of a pitcher's park than in the past, and these two pitchers are hardly Kershaw and Bumgarner. A 3-3 game ensures a win with a total of only 6.5. 

The over is 12-3-1 in Shields' last 16 home starts. Take the over here. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies meet at Chase Field on Tuesday night. Chase Field is one of the very best parks for hitters when the roof is open, and the roof is projected to be open for this one with nice weather in Arizona right now. 

The Colorado Rockies should have some high scoring games this year when you factor in their strong lineup and terrible pitching. Colorado has a poor rotation and a ridiculously bad bullpen as well. 

Both teams have several power hitters and the ball should fly very well at Chase Field in this one. Take the over. 

*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Sam Holbrook has been the #1 best bet for over bettors as far as MLB umpires are concerned in the last 5 years. The over is 172 and 132 in his games. Holbrook will make the pitchers put it down the heart of the plate a lot more than most guys will. Combine that with the fact that the wind is expected to be blowing out at 25 to 30 mph during the game, and this number is too low. 

Chris Young is a fly ball pitcher and Syndergaard has been less dominant on the road. 

The over is 6-0 in the Mets last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0-1 in Syndergaard's last 7 road starts. The over is 4-0 in the Royals last 4 following a win. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Toronto Blue Jays were the single best team in the majors last year against left handed pitching. They are going to be amazing against lefties again this year. While I think Drew Smyly is a decent pitcher, he'll likely have a hard time shutting down this offense. 

R.A. Dickey hasn't been good at Tampa Bay in recent years. Dickey had a 5.00 ERA in 3 starts at Tampa Bay in 2014. In 2015, Dickey had an even worse ERA of 7.71 in two starts. He is at his worst in April and doesn't like the conditions at the dome in Tampa. 

The over is 7-0-1 in the Rays last 8 games during game 2 of a series. The over is 4-0-1 in Dickey's last 5 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in the Rays last 4 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AL East. The over is 4-0-3 in the last 7 games between these teams. A 22-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Baltimore Orioles have one of the best offenses in baseball. They also have a very poor starting rotation led by Chris Tillman. Tillman shouldn't be an ace, but the Orioles have made him one by default since they are so thin and Kevin Gausman is injured. 

Minnesota overachieved last year, and the Twins have a terrible rotation and bullpen. Ervin Santana definitely doesn't have the stuff to be an ace at this point in his career. The Twins bullpen should be one of the worst in the majors this year.

Both offenses should see a bunch of scoring opportunities in this one. Take the over. 

*3 Star MLB Opening Sunday MONEYMAKER* The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates get things underway for this year's MLB action. Adam Wainwright hasn't pitched in a regular season game since last April. He struggled in Spring Training. Pittsburgh has hit him better than just about any other team in the majors. The Pirates expected starting lineup here has a .308 average all time against Wainwright.Francisco Liriano is a good pitcher, but he isn't a top of the league type of game. Liriano has had trouble against the Cardinals as well. St Louis hitters have a .343 on base percentage against Liriano.Both of these offenses are pretty good. These pitchers are quality pitchers, but there are real question marks on both here, and the total is only 6 runs.

The over is 15-4-5 in Wainwright's last 24 starts against Pittsburgh. The over is 12-3-1 in Liriano's last 16 home starts. Take the over.  

*5 Star NCAA Tournament Game of the Year* The Oklahoma Sooners and Villanova Wildcats met earlier this year on December 7. The final score in that game was 78-55 with the Sooners winning. That game was on a neutral floor. 

Now, these two will play again in the Final Four. This game is played at NRG Stadium in Houston where the shooting backdrops are notoriously awful. Unders have ruled at NRG Stadium in the past, and when the game means so much, as this one obviously does, this usually leads to better defense and a slower tempo.

Even with normalized tempos for both teams from the regular season, the total here should be something like 146 points or so. The oddsmakers threw out a 150, which shocked me. After an adjustment for where the game is played and the importance of the game, I think 140 points would make more sense than 150 for this posted total.

Both of these teams are tremendous on defense. They both rank in the top 13 in the country. Villanova is playing at a slow tempo this year, and I don't think they'll let this turn into an all out track meet. 

This is my NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. Take the under. *Please note that I expect this line to drop, so play this line as early as possible. Also, while this is a very big play for me, use good bankroll management. Thanks and good luck.*

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Clippers are sitting out Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, and J.J. Redick in this one. Blake Griffin is already down with an injury and Paul Pierce is out with an injury as well. The Clippers offense will look a whole lot different on Thursday night than it normally does. 

Oklahoma City has been very good of late. The Thunder have been putting up a lot of points, but they are also playing very well on defense, especially on their home floor. 

This is a high total considering who all isn't playing in this game. The Clippers and Thunder both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. 

Oklahoma City should coast to a win and their defense should be good enough to keep this one low enough scoring. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz and Golden State Warriors are actually both in tough scheduling spots here. That makes me believe this game could be lower scoring than expected. A huge key for me in this game is the public is taking the over at an 85% clip and the total has dropped two full points from the open. That's a very strong signal of some sharp money on the under. 

Utah has to know the only chance they have here is to play some stall ball. They want no part of a high scoring game with Golden State. Both defenses rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency in the past month. Take the under here. 

*4 Star NBA 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Atlanta Hawks actually have the single best defensive efficiency mark in the NBA in the past month. Atlanta is winning games with some tremendous defense right now. 

Toronto plays at the third slowest pace of any team in the NBA. The Raptors will make this a game played in the halfcourt. Toronto's defense is much improved from last year, and that's the biggest reason the Raptors are the second ranked team in the Eastern Conference right now. 

The public money here is 83% on the over, but this number has dropped from the opener. I always like signs like this one. This is an anti-public play that the bookmakers are clearly respecting. 

The under is 5-0 in Toronto's last 5 vs. the Eastern Conference. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Atlanta's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. A 17-0 angle. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The Houston Rockets go to Cleveland to take on the Cavs tonight. The Cavs will be without LeBron James. Cleveland has been a mess on the offensive end when James hasn't played in the last couple years. In fact, in LeBron's last 15 games sitting out, the under is 12-3. The over is getting almost 80% of the public bets, but the line has gradually moved down today, which is certainly a nice indicator of sharp money on the under. Houston needs games like this one with their playoff spot being very questionable. This one is a few points too high. Take the under. 

*5 Star Vegas 8 TOP Play Total SMASHER* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs always look to push the tempo. They should get their wish in this game. Occasionally, you'll find a team that simply plays to the preferred pace of their opponent, and East Tennessee State definitely looks like one of those teams. 

In non-conference action, East Tennessee State played a 103-90 game against Green Bay and a 94-73 game against UNC Wilmington. Louisiana Tech ranks in the top 50 in the country in terms of tempo, and the Bulldogs will look to get in transition in this game. LA Tech is good at getting to the free throw line, and East Tennessee State has been fouling too much down the stretch this year.

East Tennessee State averaged more than 1.11 points per possession in conference play this year, which is great offensive efficiency. LA Tech was a very good 1.087 points per possession also. 

This is the first round of the Vegas 8 Tournament and most of these smaller postseason tournaments often see higher scores early in the tournament. I expect a lot of offense in this one. Take the over big. TOP RATED Play. 

*3 Star North Carolina/Notre Dame Totals CASH* The North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish with a spot in the Final Four on the line. These two teams played twice during the regular season and Notre Dame won 80-76 at home, while North Carolina won 78-47 on a neutral floor in the ACC Tournament. In Notre Dame's comeback win at home, the Fighting Irish scored 31 points at the free throw line (out of 38 attempts). North Carolina doesn't foul much overall and I can't imagine Notre Dame getting to the line that much in this game. 

Notre Dame should know their only chance to win this game is to stall and try to keep the score down. They simply can't get out in transition with North Carolina and expect to have a chance to win here. The Fighting Irish should be running the clock down every time they get the ball.

With 125 and 156 being the totals during the regular season games, I believe this one is lined too high. North Carolina's defense is underrated, and Notre Dame should be planing very slowly. Take the under. 

*4 Star NBA TGIF Play of Day* The Atlanta Hawks defense has been the best in the NBA in the past month. For the year, Atlanta ranks second in the NBA in defensive efficiency behind only the Spurs. In the past month, their defense has been slightly better than the Spurs. Atlanta still plays at a relatively quick pace, but the Hawks offense is much less efficient than they were last year. 

Milwaukee is playing at the slowest tempo of any team outside of Utah in the past month. The Bucks offense struggles without Mayo and Carter-Williams. The Bucks will work to slow this game down as much as possible.

Another strong sign is this total dropping despite 2/3 of the public bets on this game coming in on the over. I always like to see a line move that goes against the public. 

The under is 6-2 in the Hawks last 8 home games. The under is 4-1 in the Bucks last 5. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB TGIF Total DOMINATION* These two teams really play at a slow tempo. This game should be played at an extremely slow pace. Notre Dame is 333rd out of 351 teams in college basketball in their offensive tempo. Wisconsin ranks 349th out of 351 in terms of tempo. 

Wisconsin has a way of turning almost any game into a low scoring defensive battle. While Notre Dame's offense is good, I don't think the Fighting Irish will find very many open looks against a good Badgers defense. Wisconsin's offense has been suffering late in the year as Nigel Hayes has really slumped. 

This is a game that I see playing to a pace of 57 or 58 possessions, which would be among the slowest in the entire NCAA Tournament. Neither team fouls much, so that's certainly helpful. Take the under in this one. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Villanova Wildcats have the 7th best defense in the nation in terms of efficiency. Villanova also prefers to slow the pace of the game down. Villanova is heavily reliant on outside shooting, and that can be a problem in these neutral site games. 

Miami also likes to play at a slow tempo, and the Hurricanes are more than comfortable playing in a low scoring contest. 

It's important to note that neither of these teams commits many fouls. They are good at defending without committing fouls which can quickly add points to the total.

I expect a close game in this one, and I think the two defenses will have a slight advantage over the two offenses. I had this number at 138. Take the under. 

*3 Star NBA Play of Day* The New York Knicks tempo has been very slow under Kurt Rambis. They are also working quite a bit harder on defense than they were earlier this year. New York is playing at better than league average on defense in the past month. 

Chicago's defense is better than league average as well, and their offense ranks 25th in the NBA in efficiency. The Bulls offense just can't seem to put it all together this year, and injuries have really held the team back.

The first two meetings this year finished at 198 and 189. This has the highest posted total of any game between these two in the past three years. 

The under is 20-7 in the Knicks last 27. The under is 5-2 in the Bulls last 7 home games. Take the under. 

*4 Star NCAA BB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Duquesne Dukes can really push the pace of the game. Duquesne just played a 120-112 game against Nebraska Omaha. The score in the second half alone of that game was 80-69! That's mind boggling scoring, and in these smaller postseason tournaments you can get some very high scoring games between teams who prefer to push the pace.

Morehead State showed they were willing to run with Siena in their first postseason game, and that gives me enough reason to play the over here. Morehead State fouls almost as much as anyone in the country, and Duquesne fouls more than average as well. I had this lined at 157 points. 

The over is 4-0 in Duquesne's last 4 games after allowing 90 points or more last game. The over is 4-0 in Morehead State's last 4. The over is 4-0 in Morehead State's last 4 non-conference games. A 12-0 angle. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Maryland Terrapins offense has been up and down this year. They got on track nicely last game in the second half against South Dakota State. Hawaii has an underrated player in Stefan Jankovic who could be tough for Maryland's defense to matchup with

Hawaii's defensive numbers are good this year, but the best teams they played this year put up a lot of points on them. They allowed 82 points against Texas Tech and 87 against Oklahoma. 

Hawaii is extremely aggressive on defense, and that should send Maryland to the line a lot in this one. Maryland is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star NCAA BB Sunday's BEST Bet* The Oklahoma Sooners love to push the tempo, and here they get to play against a VCU team that prefers to play fast as well. Oklahoma will get out in transition in front of a friendly crowd in Oklahoma City. The Sooners shoot 43% from long distance as a team, which is second best in the nation. Buddy Hield is locked in, and the Sooners present several matchup issues for the VCU defense.

Neither of these teams is very good at keeping opponents off the glass, so that should present several second chance opportunities in this one. 

Plenty of pace and scorers all over the floor should equal an over in this one. 

I had this game at 152 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star Saturday Tourney Late Night BAILOUT* The North Carolina Tar Heels always want to push the tempo. Providence is generally a team that likes to get out in transition when they can as well. 

Both teams hold key advantages on offense in this game. Kris Dunn is a big guard who should be able to do damage against North Carolina's defense. Not many guards have the kind of size advantage over Carolina's defense that Dunn has, and he should be able to hurt them. On the other side, North Carolina should absolutely dominate on the offensive glass. The Tar Heels are great at getting second chance points, and Providence has struggled there against their best opponents.

Sometimes neutral site games can be bad for the over, but there are a few reasons I like the over here. First, there have been a bunch of whistles so far in the NCAA Tournament. Second, the rims are clearly soft overall in the NCAA Tournament, which helps shooters. Thirdly, both teams are playing in their second game at this venue, and that usually helps shooters as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes are good at controlling the tempo. Gonzaga has been playing to the pace of their opponent more often than not of late. Both of these teams have high quality defenses. I don't think we'll see very many open looks for either team.

The matchup down low of Sabonis for Gonzaga and Poetl for Utah is a tremendous one. I think those two are both good enough on defense to slow the other down more than they are usually slowed down by other opponents. 

This game is played at altitude in Denver where exhaustion can be a factor and we saw Gonzaga's opponent Seton Hall have all sorts of trouble with being winded on Thursday. 

Close game here and I think this total is a few points high. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers and New Hampshire Wildcats are both much better on the defensive end than the offensive end of the floor. This is a smaller postseason tournament, but these two teams both prefer a slow tempo, so I don't expect a high scoring game like we have seen in other spots. 

Look for both of these offenses to be inconsistent throughout the course of the game. The slow tempo and poor efficiency should keep this under the posted total. Take the under.  

*4 Star NIT Total DOMINATION* The BYU Cougars host the Virginia Tech Hokies on Friday night. BYU put up 97 points against a very good UAB team a couple days ago. Virginia Tech beat Princeton in overtime a couple days ago. 

Both of these teams prefer to play quickly. While they have some teams who are able to slow them down during the regular season in conference play, they should get their wish to play very fast in this smaller postseason tournament game. 

Virginia Tech is at their best when in transition and attacking the hoop. Virginia Tech gets to the line more often than anyone in the nation (out of 351 teams). BYU is deadly from three-point territory and VA Tech's defense slipped a lot down the stretch against quality teams.

I made this number 167 points. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers totals are tricky to project because the team presses in the full court and gets so many easy buckets, but if they don't score a quick bucket West Virginia likes to be deliberate and run the 30 second shot clock down low. 

Stephen F. Austin has to know that they cannot afford to get into a shootout with this West Virginia team. The Lumberjacks can't come out running in transition. They don't have enough athletes to beat West Virginia up and down the floor. The Lumberjacks will likely do their best to use up the shot clock whenever they can. 

Both defenses are strong and this number is high for an NCAA Tournament game. Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Hawaii Warriors and Cal Golden Bears meet at 2 pm eastern on Friday. First things first, why was this game scheduled as the early game on the West Coast? This thing starts at 11 am Pacific and at 8 am Hawaii time. Neither team will be accustomed to this playing time, and these odd start times are generally good for the under. Don't be surprised if they get off to a slow start or if the shooting numbers are lower than average.

While both of these teams play relatively fast, both teams are far better on the defensive end than the offensive end. Hawaii ranks 40th in the nation in defensive efficiency and 107th in offensive efficiency. Cal ranks 12th on defense and 47th on offense. Cal is first in the nation in two point field goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot only 40.9 percent on two-pointers.

The pace usually slows down in the NCAA Tournament. The oddities of this game and the strong defenses make this a good value play. Take the under big. TOP Rated Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have slowed their pace of play down drastically throughout the course of the season. Utah is a very good defensive team, and the strength of this Fresno State team is also their defense.

Marvelle Harris is a really good player for Fresno State, but the Bulldogs offense too often gets stagnant. I don't think him going one on one against this Utah defense will work well for Fresno State.

The Utes are likely to have the lead in this game, and they have shown to be very good at grabbing the lead and then controlling the tempo by taking the air out of the ball.

Fresno State isn't a good shooting team, and they rely on free throws often. That's a problem against a Utah team that fouls less than any other team in the nation. Take the under here. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The UConn Huskies are a really good defensive team. UConn also does a nice job slowing down the pace of the game. Colorado is a team that typically plays to the pace of their opponent. The Buffaloes are also a quality defense.

This is an early game and it is the first game of the NCAA Tournament for both teams obviously. The first game jitters should be here and when you combine that with a slow tempo as well as two good defenses, I think we'll see a game where it's a back and forth low scoring game.

While the smaller postseason tournaments are typically played at a quicker pace with less defense, most NCAA Tournament games aren't that way. The defenses have the advantage in this matchup. Take the under. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play Totals SMASHER- Note this game is on Wednesday March 16* Both teams prefer an uptempo style and this number is several points too low given that this is a smaller postseason tournament where the tempo gets even quicker on average. I think this one gets at least into the mid 150's. In fact, my number for this game was 157. Neither offense has been particularly efficient during the season, but they are playing against a weak defense on the other end here. Take the over big. TOP RATED play. *This line is moving quickly as are many of the smaller postseason tournament lines. I would play this for a Top Rated play up to 153 points. Thank you* 

*4 Star Play Over- This game is on Wednesday March 16* While neither team played particularly fast in the regular season, the tempo speeds up this time of the year in smaller postseason tournaments. The two offenses are drastically better than the defenses here. I expect some good shooting numbers and a bunch of made 3's in this game. Take the over. *Note- These smaller tournament lines are moving quickly. I would play this up to 151, but no higher. Thank you* 

*4 Star Play Over- Wednesday* This is obviously a very high posted total, but it's high for plenty of reasons. The Nebraska Omaha Mavericks move at the 6th fastest tempo of any team in the country out of 351 teams. Duquesne is the 12th quickest team in the country in terms of getting up a shot. When these two meet, it should be an absolute track meet. Both of them were slowed down by many teams in their conference, but they won't be slowed down in terms of pace here. The smaller postseason tournaments have been great for overs the past few years. Both teams put up a very high number here. 

*3 Star Play Over* North Florida gets to host Florida in a very rare spot for them to try to take out the big team from Gainesville. Both of these teams love to run and the tempo here should be very quick. The smaller postseason tournaments generally have much higher scoring games because teams care far less about defense than they do in the Big Dance. Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Over* Siena and Morehead State both get to the line a lot and knock down free throws. Siena can't handle full court pressure, and Morehead State should get a lot of easy buckets from their press. Both teams are excellent on the offensive glass. The smaller postseason tournaments generally have much higher scoring games because teams care far less about defense than they do in the Big Dance. Take the over here. 

*3 Star NBA Total DOMINATION* I can't pass this one up. While there are a couple things about this game I don't like: most importantly the Cavs recent higher scoring games and quicker tempo, the spot is just too good to pass up the under.

It is a strong long-term trend to play early Sunday games in the NBA to go under the posted total. That trend gets even stronger in unique situations like this one. With the clocks moving forward an hour, players get an hour less to sleep on Saturday night and this game starts at 12:30 local time in Los Angeles. That's definitely a negative for scoring when it comes to long term scoring averages.

I'll play the situation here. Take the under.  

*4 Star NCAA BB Play of Day* The Texas A&M Aggies have the best defense in the SEC. The Kentucky Wildcats have the second best defense in the SEC. This one is being played at Bridgestone Arena, which is noted as a poor arena for shooters. 

In the last meeting between Kentucky and Texas A&M, the game was several points under the total before going into overtime. Both teams will want this one pretty badly, so I'll be looking for a motivated effort on the defensive end. 

Kentucky's defense was non-existent yesterday, and I have to think Coach Cal will let them know about it before this game. 

The under is 13-5 in Texas A&M's last 18 games as they have slowed their pace down. Take the under. 

*3 Star NCAA BB Early Bird Special* The VCU Rams and the St. Joe's Hawks squared off earlier this year in an absolute track meet. That game was played at a tempo of 78 possessions, which is extremely quick. The final score in that game was 85-82. VCU likes to run when given the opportunity, and St. Joe's has picked up the tempo in a big way this year. In fact, down the stretch St. Joe's has moved even quicker. Only two of their last ten games have stayed below this total. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The two meetings during the regular season finished way under this posted total. These are two teams who excel on the defensive side of the ball. They are playing on a neutral floor which is slightly negative for shooters. There is early sharp money on the under here, and I think that is the right side. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* Both regular season meetings between these two teams went well under the posted total. I generally like to look for spots like this where we get a much higher total in the postseason than the regular season meetings were. This game means everything to both teams. If they lose, they are done. That generally slows down the tempo. Additionally, this is at a neutral floor which is a negative for shooters. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers like to stall, but North Carolina isn't going to let them dictate the tempo here. The last four games between these two teams have gone over the posted total. The over has been pure money at the ACC Tournament this year. This line has been bet down to a point where I believe the value is on the over. Both offenses are extremely efficient. Take the over. 

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Cal Golden Bears and Utah Utes are the two best defenses in the Pac 12. These two will have to work very hard on offense to find open looks. Utah has slowed their tempo down to a crawl late in the season. Cal generally plays to the pace of their opponent. This is a rare spot where we get a total in a conference tournament that is higher than either of the regular season meetings. I had 132 for this one. Take the under big. TOP RATED play. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Fresno State Bulldogs and Colorado State Rams just met recently and had a high scoring game. Colorado State is the worst defense in the Mountain West, and they have the most efficient offense in the league. They will give Marvelle Harris and the Fresno State offense a lot of open looks. Additionally, Fresno State's defense fouls a bunch and Colorado State is great at getting to the line and converting. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The ACC Tournament has seen a lot of overs so far this year, so I'm limiting this rating to a 3 star. It normally would have been a 4 star play. One thing that's for sure is the tempo in this game will be extremely slow. Both regular season meetings stayed under this total despite good shooting numbers. The tempo in the last meeting was just 54 possessions. That's as slow as you will ever see in this era. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane like to play quick when their opponent allows them to. Memphis has the 8th quickest tempo of any team in the nation. The regular season meeting between these two went to 174 points. Memphis is going to push in transition as much as possible because Tulsa is tough to beat in the halfcourt. While I'm slightly concerned that the shooting numbers could be low here, I believe the tempo that we'll see warrants a play on the over. I had this one at 152. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Norfolk State Spartans are extremely efficient on offense, and South Carolina State isn't any good on defense. The regular season meeting between these teams finished at 161 points. There should be a lot of free throw attempts and both teams are good from the line. I had this game lined at 153 points. Take the over. 

*4 Star NBA Play of Day* The Chicago Bulls have major injury problems right now. Chicago is expected to be without Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah, and Cameron Bairstow for this game. Derrick Rose is questionable. The Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls both rank in the top ten in the NBA in defensive efficiency. Both of them rank in the bottom ten in the league in offensive efficiency. The under is 6-1 in their last 7 games against each other. This total is inflated by a few points. Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats and Alabama Crimson Tide both slow the game down. Both of them are also very good on defense. Bridgestone Arena is noted as a bad arena for shooters. It's where the Nashville Predators play, and hockey arenas aren't usually good for shooters. The backdrop is a difficult one. 

Kentucky is too good for Alabama, and the Wildcats defense should dominate. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* These two teams are very consistent in playing at a slow tempo. Old Dominion is one of the best defensive teams in the country. This should be a hard fought game where open shots are tough to come by. On a neutral floor, this one should stay in the mid 120's or lower. Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boise State Broncos were screwed the last time they played the Colorado State Rams. They had a game winning 3 pointer taken off the board by the refs on a terrible call. I imagine that will have them very focused and ready to pour it on in this game. I lean to Boise State minus the points, but the number is higher than I wanted to see. Instead, I'm taking the over because Colorado State's defense is the worst in the Mountain West. These two played two very high scoring games this year in the regular season. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The first meeting between these two teams this year was 112-108. Yes, you read that correctly. That's a high scoring NBA game. UTEP likes to push the pace and Marshall plays as fast as anyone in the country. The only reason this one isn't a higher rated play is this is a neutral floor and shooting percentages could be a bit lower. The pace will be there, and this number is set a few points too low. Take the over. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Play MONEYMAKER* The Miami Hurricanes have really slowed their tempo down a lot in recent weeks. The Hurricanes have stalled out the tempo in both games against Virginia Tech during the regular season. Virginia Tech played quickly early in the season, but they aren't playing fast at all in the last month.

Virginia Tech relies a lot on getting to the line and Miami doesn't foul much at all. Virginia Tech does a good job mixing up defenses with Buzz Williams on the sideline, and that has bothered Miami some this year. 

In a big game for both teams, I expect a slow pace and solid defense. Take the under big. TOP Rated Play. 

*5 Star NCAA BB TOP Totals CRUSHER* The UC Irvine Anteaters and Cal Poly Mustangs have a very long history of playing low scoring games against each other. In their last 8 games against each other, none have gone over this posted total without going into overtime. In fact, only one of them has finished within 10 points of this posted total.

Cal Poly experimented with playing faster early in the season, but they are back to slowing things down lately. UC Irvine has a tremendous defense and they can dominate on that end of the floor.

This game is played at the Honda Center, which is a big positive for the under. This is a terrible shooters venue based on the numbers over the years. With this being both teams first games in this gym since last year, it's a good time to look at the under. Note that the regular season meetings had posted totals of 137 and 141, so there has been no adjustment here for the neutral site.

The under is 4-1 in Cal Poly's last 5 games. The under is 55-27-1 in UC Irvine's last 83 games overall. Take the under big. TOP RATED Play. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rhode Island Rams defense has been a puzzle that the UMass Minutemen haven't been able to solve this year. In regulation, UMass scored 51 and 50 points on Rhode Island's defense in their two regular season meetings. Rhode Island is the best of any team in this conference when it comes to slowing the pace down. I think they dictate the tempo in this one. A neutral floor in Brooklyn here likely helps the under a bit since neither team is accustomed to shooting here. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Idaho State Bengals and North Dakota Fighting Hawks both prefer to play at a quick tempo. Ethan Telfair is a star for Idaho State, and I expect a good showing from him. North Dakota lit up Idaho State's defense in both games during the regular season. In a game that should be close, free throws late could be the difference. Both of these teams are good at getting to the line. My number here was 151. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks and Florida Gators met only once this year, and it was an 87-83 game. Both of these teams like to use full court pressure, and that really speeds the game up. While Florida struggled much of the year in the halfcourt on offense, they found success in getting steals and easy buckets in the first game against Arkansas. 

At the same time, the weakness of the Florida defense is defending beyond the 3 point line. Arkansas is a very good three point shooting team, so they can exploit that weakness. Additionally, Florida gets to the line a lot and Arkansas is a team that does a lot of fouling. Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The two regular season meetings between these two teams were both under this posted total. This contest will take place in the Toyota Center in Houston. This is a massive arena, and neither of these teams are accustomed to playing in this big of a place. Also, there will be almost no one here, which is definitely a negative on average when it comes to shooting percentages. Texas Southern's defense should dominate Alabama A&M and I expect Texas Southern to slow the tempo down once they are ahead. Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Norfolk State Spartans played a very challenging non-conference schedule this year, and that got them ready for this tournament. Norfolk State picked up the pace in a big way during the conference portion of the season. The Spartans also were the number one ranked offense in the league in terms of efficiency by a wide margin. UNC Central is a six point dog here, and I don't think they'll be able to slow this game down enough. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* 14 of Rutgers' last 18 games have gone over this total. Both of the regular season games between these two went over this total. Rutgers has been a great over team this year because of two things. First, their tempo is the fastest of any team in the Big Ten. Secondly, they don't play any defense at all. How bad is their defense? Opponents are scoring 1.20 points per possession on them in the Big Ten (1.04 or so is average). I had this number at 144. Take the over.