*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Redskins have a new coach in Callahan, and he has made it clear he wants to run the football early and often. They will have a slow tempo and be far more conservative. The Redskins had 33 rushing plays on Sunday against the Dolphins. I expect to see them try to run it and keep the ball away from the 49ers offense.

San Francisco's defense has been amazing so far this year. Their performance against the Browns opened a lot of eyes, and then they backed it up with an even more impressive performance defensively against the Rams on Sunday. The 49ers defensive line is excellent and the secondary is one of the best in the NFL.

San Francisco has the highest percentage of running plays of any team in the NFL so far this year. They'll run the ball and eat up a lot of clock as well here. 

With a moving clock and a Redskins offense that is unlikely to be able to do much here, I see a low scoring contest.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines are playing faster this year, but they aren't playing efficiently at all on offense. Michigan is 81st in the nation in yards per play. They are up against a Penn State defense that has been tremendous this season. The Nittany Lions rank 3rd in the nation in yards per play allowed. I think Michigan will have a hard time putting together sustained drives against this Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions have a big advantage with their defensive front against the Michigan offensive line.

Penn State's offense hasn't been consistent this year. The Nittany Lions have hit quite a few big plays, but they haven't shown the ability to put together long drives against good defenses. Michigan typically does a good job not giving up big plays, and this will present a challenge for Penn State.

Both teams run the ball a little more than the average team, so we'll see a lot of moving clock. I think this is a game where points will be at a premium. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Western Michigan is second in the nation in explosive plays of 20 yards or more. The Broncos have struggled in the red zone though, and this is a team that is due for some positive regression when it comes to points per game. Western Michigan's offense is elite, and they aren't playing against even decent defenses in the MAC.

Eastern Michigan has been even worse in the red zone than the Broncos. The Eagles also should have some positive regression on the way. The Eagles are throwing the ball around a lot more this year and Western Michigan's defense has allowed a whopping 108 plays of 10 yards or more already this year.

Both teams should have a lot of offensive success here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Washington State Cougars defense has been awful this year. Washington State is allowing 6.65 ypp on the year. Colorado's defense has been even worse. The Buffaloes are giving up 6.87 ypp. These two have been even worse on defense in Pac 12 play. Washington State is allowing more than 8 yards per play in the conference. 

Both teams like to throw the ball a lot and there should be a lot of possessions in this contest. 

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes have the slowest tempo of any team in the nation. Utah ranks 130th out of 130 in pace of play. Utah also likes to run the football early and often. Almost 65% of Utah's offensive plays are running plays. 

Arizona State's defense has been beaten badly in the passing game this year, but they have been good against the run. They haven't played a running attack as good as Utah, so they will give up some yards here. Still, Utah will be taking a lot of time off the clock and if they get held to some field goals it is a big boost for the under.

Arizona State ranks 102nd in yards per carry this year, and Utah's defense ranks the best against the run of any defense they have faced. Michigan State also excels at stopping the run, and they shut down Arizona State's offense.

Neither passing game is very good to begin with, and the weather is a key factor here too. Rain is likely later in this game, and it is expected to be windy throughout the entire game.

With both teams playing slowly and running a lot, I think this one stays low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats have had a really hard time moving the ball against quality defenses this year. Kentucky is up against a great defense here in Athens. 

Georgia's offense is very good, but they do play at a slow pace and run the football a lot. That means that while they usually move the football a lot, they take a lot of time off the clock as well.

Kentucky plays at the 95th ranked tempo out of 130 teams in the nation. Georgia ranks 113th in tempo. Both of these teams prefer to run the ball when they can.

A tropical storm is expected to bring heavy rain to Athens earlier in the day on Saturday. The rain might stop before the game or it may be light rain here, but there will still be winds of 15 or 16 mph during this game. Additionally, this is a grass field and with rains of over an inch expected during the day on Saturday- the field might not be in very good shape. The weather is a plus for the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Vanderbilt Commodores are just an awful team this year. Their star running back (Vaughn) is dinged up and is listed as questionable for this game. Vanderbilt has a quarterback controversy. Neither of the quarterbacks are good. 

Missouri is a quality team this year. The Tigers are led by a defense that is 6th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Missouri is excellent in pass coverage, and they are above average against the run. The Tigers offense is a run heavy offense.

Missouri is very likely to be in control of this game. We have some interesting references of spots where Missouri has a large lead. The Tigers have taken their foot off the gas and had low scoring second halves multiple times.

-Missouri led Troy 42-7 at halftime and the final score was 42-10.

-Missouri led West Virginia 31-0 at halftime and the final score was 38-7

-Missouri led SE Missouri State 37-0 at halftime and the final score was 50-0

Consistently they have had very low scoring 3rd and 4th quarters in games where they lead.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers put up 40 points last week with backup quarterback Jack Plummer at the helm and Rondale Moore out of the lineup. That was against a weak Maryland defense though. Purdue couldn't do anything against Penn State's defense, and I'll be surprised if they have much success here against a good Iowa defense.

Moore is one of the most electrifying players in the country, and him being out is a huge loss for Purdue. The Boilermakers rank 129th out of 130 in the country in yards per carry, so they don't have a running game to lean on. Iowa is 16th in the nation in yards per play allowed.

Iowa's offense has some potential, but they play a pretty conservative brand of football. The Hawkeyes play at a slow pace and there shouldn't be too many possessions in this game as they grind things down when they are in the lead.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Syracuse offense is a mess this year. Tommy DeVito hasn't been nearly as good as expected in this offense, and now he is trying to play through an injury. DeVito plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in the nation as well. Not a great combination when you are trying to play through an injury and avoid getting hit. Syracuse has allowed 26 sacks in only six games. 

The Pitt Panthers defense ranks second in the nation with 27 sacks so far this year. They are going to bring a ton of pressure on DeVito in this one, and I think the Syracuse offense will likely struggle with the Pitt defensive line.

The Pitt Panthers offense ranks 108th in yards per play this year. Kenny Pickett just hasn't looked like he is in a rhythm in the passing game. Pitt has been throwing it more this year, but the strength of this Syracuse defense is their secondary. 

Take the under in this one. 

*Note- I would play for this for 4 stars down to 51.5 and for a 3 star rating down to 50*

*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves love to play fast. Arkansas State ranks 19th fastest out of 130 teams in the country in pace of play. Arkansas State has also averaged a whopping 7.77 yards per play in their two Sun Belt contests thus far.

Arkansas State's defense is awful though, and they are going to give up a lot here. The Red Wolves allowed a ridiculous 722 total yards against Georgia State. They also gave up 28 points and more than 500 yards against FCS level SIU. This is a really weak defense.

Louisiana's offense didn't look good against Appalachian State, but they have arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt. The Ragin' Cajuns scored a 47-43 win over Arkansas State last season.

Louisiana ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play on the season as a whole. These two offenses should have a lot of success.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Cowboys rank first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas has an above average offense, but they aren't the best offense in the NFL. They have played the weakest schedule of defenses of anyone in the NFL so far this year. Dallas has taken advantage of the Dolphins, Giants, and Redskins in 3 of their first 5 games. 

The New York Jets rank dead last in the NFL in yards per play. The Jets get Darnold back this weekend, but he isn't likely to fix this offense right away. Dallas' defense should come into this game upset after struggling last week against Green Bay. The Jets have the slowest pace of play in the NFL, and I expect them to try to run the ball a lot and keep the Dallas offense off the field.

The under is 26-10 in the Cowboys last 36 road games. 

With the move up during the week, I see value on the under.

Take the under here. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals offense had a lot of success against Cincinnati last weekend. I don't think the Cardinals offense will be all that good against quality defenses this year, but I do think they'll have a lot of success against the bottom of the barrel defenses. 

The Atlanta Falcons secondary is an absolute nightmare. Dan Quinn's defense is blowing assignments and giving up way too many big plays. Kyler Murray had a confidence building game last weekend, and I expect him to have a good game here.

Arizona's secondary is a big problem as well. Matt Ryan and the Falcons still have a lot of weapons on the outside. Look for Ryan to find a lot of open receivers on Sunday afternoon in Arizona.

A lot of tempo in this one and this number is too low.

Take the over. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Wyoming offense isn't any good at all. They were able to run all over the UNLV defense a couple weeks ago, but I'm not going to let that make me think their offensive woes are fixed. Wyoming can't throw the ball, and San Diego State will just key in on the run here and force Chambers to beat them through the air. I don't think he can do it.

Ryan Agnew has been really bad at quarterback for San Diego State this year. San Diego State is 126th in offensive yards per play this year. They scored a whopping 6 points against Weber State and only 24 points against an awful Colorado State defense. 

San Diego State's games this year have finished with final totals of: 6 points, 37 points, 41 points, 40 points, and 44 points. Two of Wyoming's games have finished at 37 points.

Take the under. TOP Rated play. 

*3 Star Play Under* Notre Dame's offensive statistics are skewed so far this year. Notre Dame has piled up big offensive numbers against a couple terrible defenses. Against the decent or better defenses they have faced, Ian Book and company just haven't been that good. USC isn't a great defense, but they are a lot better than some of the other units Notre Dame has played against.

USC is reliant on the passing game, and the Notre Dame secondary is excellent. Slovis is expected back for USC here, but I expect USC's passing attack to be less effective than normal because of the defense they are facing and the weather.

The weather here calls for 15 mph sustained winds with gusts of 25 mph through the game. This is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Charlotte's offense has really impressed this year. Their coaching staff is doing a tremendous job turning this team that was previously hapless on offense into a very good offensive squad. The 49ers are averaging 6.54 yards per play (26th in the country). Charlotte has been breaking big runs consistently. That's important here because the FIU front seven has been really weak against the run. Look for Charlotte's ground game to do damage here.

FIU's offense is finally starting to come around. They were an underachiever early in the year, but this offense has a lot of talent. Charlotte is way too reliant on their aggressive pass rush. FIU's offensive line grades out as above average, and I think FIU can burn Charlotte for being too aggressive on defense in this matchup.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are a completely different team than they were a year ago. Southern Miss is now weak on defense, and they are much improved on offense in their new scheme.

North Texas has an elite quarterback in Mason Fine, and he is up against a weak Southern Miss secondary. Look at the numbers Troy's passing game put up against Southern Miss. This looks like a great spot for North Texas to pick up their production on offense.

I had this game projected at 63 points, so I'm glad to grab this one at 58.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* MTSU's defense has been shredded all season long. Marshall may have only scored 13 points last week, but the Thundering Herd put up 578 yards of offense. MTSU's defense hasn't shown me anything that would make me confident at all about their ability to slow down Florida Atlantic here. MTSU is 120th in the nation in yards per play allowed. 

Florida Atlantic's offense started the year struggling against good competition, but the Owls offense has been great in their last three games. Lane Kiffin's team should put up a lot of big plays here.

MTSU has been good on offense. The Blue Raiders passing attack should have a big edge on the FAU secondary which has been a clear weakness.

Both of these defenses have been fortunate in the red zone. They have been getting away with forcing teams to kick field goals or turning them over in the red zone. I expect defensive regression in points per game allowed for both teams.

Take the over. 

*5 Star Top Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans defense looked dominant in the first quarter last weekend against Ohio State. Ohio State ended up looking great offensively in the second quarter before struggling again in the second half. That was a weird game, but Michigan State did show they have a lot of talent on the front seven defensively.

Wisconsin is a really good team, but they don't have the offensive balance Ohio State has. Wisconsin is going to run the ball over and over. Wisconsin's Jack Coan doesn't impress me in the passing game. The Badgers will lean heavily on the running game and use up a bunch of clock. Michigan State will give up some yards here to a great Wisconsin running game, but I do think they'll hold their own.

The Michigan State offense is really weak. Wisconsin is first in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. The Spartans don't have an explosive offense at all, and I don't think they'll be able to consistently put together long drives against Wisconsin.

The weather forecast here calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph during the game. This is a clear positive for the under.

Take the under. TOP Rated Play. 

*3 Star Play Over* For the last couple weeks, Clemson has heard a lot about how they aren't as good as they were expected to be. Dabo Swinney mentioned that he is getting tired of hearing it. The Clemson offense has been a bit of a disappointment. Here is a great chance for them to get back on track.

Florida State plays at the 4th fastest tempo in the country, and Clemson has played quickly this year as well. The Seminoles defense has allowed a lot of big plays in the passing game, and I think Trevor Lawrence and company are in for a big day.

I see Clemson putting up a big number here and Florida State doing enough.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Mississippi State Bulldogs aren't even close to what they were a year ago on defense. I think the market has been slow to adjust to their defensive weaknesses. Mississippi State was a top five defense in the country last year. They rank 104th in the nation in yards per play this year. The Bulldogs have allowed 31 plays of 20 yards or more. 

Tennessee isn't a good offense, but I think Maurer gives them a better chance at quarterback than Guarantano. The Volunteers have turned it over too much this year, and if they can hold onto the ball a little better, I think they can score against teams like Mississippi State.

Mississippi State's offense should improve the rest of the way. The Bulldogs have enough weapons to be putting up better numbers than they have thus far. 

Both teams should put up a decent number of points in this one.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* This is a rivalry game in northwest Ohio. The weather calls for sustained winds of 16 mph and gusts to 28 mph during this game. That is plenty to change the game. Neither of these offenses are as explosive as they have been in the past. 

The Bowling Green offense ranks 125th in the nation in yards per play. Toledo is much better offensively, but they have shown that they are willing to slow down the game a lot once they have a lead. They should have a lead here throughout.

This is a very high total for a high wind game. These windy unders have treated me well in the past, and I'll back the under again here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots have been a great under team this year. The Patriots defense is a top two or three unit in the NFL. The Patriots haven't allowed more than 14 points in a game all year. The game they allowed 14 points in was when the Jets scored twice on defense. In all, the Patriots defense has only allowed 20 points in five games. 

With the Giants likely playing without Saquon Barkley again, it's hard to see Daniel Jones and the Giants having much success here. They struggled badly to get going against the Vikings in their last game.

The Patriots offense has slowed the pace down a lot from last year. They are also playing more conservatively. The Giants defense isn't good, but they have at least improved in recent weeks.

The weather forecast here calls for possible showers and gusty winds. That should make both teams more conservative, and it is definitely a positive for the under.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Applachian State Mountaineers take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in one of the best midweek games we have had in a small conference in quite some time.

This game means everything to both teams. These are two of the top three teams in the Sun Belt. 

There's no doubt both teams have been scoring machines so far this year, so you can understand a high total here. Still, this is an extremely high total for a game between two teams who run the ball often and don't play at a fast pace.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* Jack Flaherty has been amazing in the second half of the season for the Cardinals. Flaherty had a 0.71 ERA in the month of August. He followed that up with a 0.82 ERA in the month of September. Flaherty has been the best pitcher in baseball down the stretch. He has been consistently pitching deep into the game as well. Batters are hitting a miserable .142 against him in the second half of the season.

Mike Foltynewicz has been inconsistent, but he definitely finished the season off strong. He pitched great in his start a few days ago against the Cardinals. He has a 2.65 ERA in his last 10 starts. He's up against a Cardinals lineup that has been very inconsistent this year.

With everything on the line here, I expect all the top pitchers to be available. I think both starters throw the ball well here and we see a tight low scoring game.

The under is 13-3-2 in Flaherty's last 18 starts. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Over* We finally get a good Monday Night Football game, and I expect there to be quite a few points scored on both sides in this one. 

While the 49ers defensive numbers look great so far this year, they have faced an extremely weak slate of offenses thus far. They faced Tampa Bay in their first game in a new offense. They faced a terrible Bengals team. They also faced the Steelers in Mason Rudolph's first game as a starter on the road. The 49ers defense isn't bad, but they aren't nearly as good as their statistics look so far this season.

Cleveland's defense has faced a slightly below average slate of offenses as well. The Browns were able to take advantage of the Jets without Darnold. They were torched by the Titans earlier this year. They gave up quite a bit to the Ravens last week as well.

The Browns offense is better than they have shown so far this year. Baker Mayfield should improve with his accuracy at least to some degree, and I would expect bigger games from OBJ. 

San Francisco hasn't been slowed down consistently by anyone so far this year, and I really like this 49ers offense. They are a well-coached unit and they have enough talent at the skill positions to do some damage.

Jerome Boger's crew is doing this game, and that is great news for over bettors. The over is 97-67 in this crew's games. This is the best over crew in the NFL.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots have a top three defense in the NFL. The Patriots have allowed a grand total of 13 points on the defensive side of the ball. They haven't played a really good offense yet, but they won't play a good offense in this one either. 

Washington is banged up on the offensive line. The Redskins went to Dwayne Haskins Jr. on Sunday and it didn't go well at all. Haskins may or may not start here, but regardless of who starts in this game I don't see Washington scoring more than 10 points or so. This Patriots defenses is good at avoiding giving up the big play, and I don't see Washington putting together long drives on them.

The Patriots offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL in yards per play. By the end of the year, they should be better, but right now they aren't better than mediocre on offense. They are calling a lot more safe play calls, and Sony Michel is getting the ball a lot. The Redskins will give up points here because their defense isn't very good. Still, the Patriots have shown they are willing to slow down the tempo this year and run the ball which helps the under a lot here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks defense ranks 4th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Oregon is far better defensively than most people realize. Cal wasn't good on offense with Garbers at quarterback, and they are even worse on offense with Modster under center. I would expect Cal to have very little success on offense in this matchup.

The Cal defense is a strong one. They rank 36th in the nation in yards per play allowed, and that is despite the fact that they have played some good offenses this year. Cal's defense is a top 25 or top 30 unit in the country. 

Oregon plays on Friday this coming week, and the Ducks may be happy to slow things down with a big lead in the second half here.

I see Cal having a hard time getting past 10 points or so here. A hard fought game between two good defenses.

Take the under. 

 *4 Star Play* Ole Miss' offense has been impressive in recent weeks. The Rebels already have a whopping 33 plays of 20 yards or more so this has been a really explosive offense. They also rank 10th in the nation in tempo. Ole Miss will continue to push the tempo here, and I don't see this weak Vanderbilt defense doing a good slowing them down. Vanderbilt has allowed 34 plays of 20 yards or more this season.

Vanderbilt's offensive numbers don't look very good so far this year, but they have played some excellent defenses. The Commodores offense should be good enough to put up a decent number against a weak Ole Miss defense here.

I had this number in the mid 60's. Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Rice Owls have done a good job staying in games by running the football consistently and using up the play clock. Rice is much better defensively than they were a year ago as well. The coaching staff knows they don't have much of a chance at all in high scoring games, and they are doing a nice job dictating the tempo. 

UAB's offense is way down from the last couple years. The offensive line went from a strength to a weakness. The Blazers still have a very strong defense, and Bill Clark is a defensive minded coach as well.

Expect a lot of running plays and a slow tempo.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* When these two teams get together, I like to look for the under. Both of these offenses usually have the upper hand against a normal opponent because that opponent isn't accustomed to facing the triple option. That isn't the case when they play each other though. 

Both of these defenses see almost exactly the same offense they will face in this game every day in practice. That gives the defense a strong advantage.

Also, both of these teams run the ball at such a high rate and play at a slow tempo. We should see some drives that take a ton of time off the game clock. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense has really impressed me so far this year. MTSU ranks 45th in the nation in yards per play despite facing Michigan, Iowa, and Duke in three of their four games thus far. They are airing it out eraly and often, and Marshall's secondary has been really weak so far this year. 

Marshall has been doing damage on the ground this season. Marshall ranks 17th in the nation in yards per carry. MTSU ranks 122nd in yards per carry allowed. The Thundering Herd have multiple running options in the backfield at all times, and I would expect some big plays from them here. 

Both teams prefer to play at a pretty brisk pace normally, and I think there will be enough possessions here.

The hot temperature (90 degrees) is helpful too- overs have done well in hot weather games in the past.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* I view both of these teams as having clearly better defenses than offenses. Iowa State has had some unfortunate bounces and they have had poor luck on red zone defense. The Cyclones are 23rd in the nation in yards per play allowed though, and they have played some solid offenses. TCU ranks 9th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Gary Patterson's team is almost always well prepared defensively. 

There is bad weather in the forecast here, which is clearly another positive. With wind and rain that should make both of these offenses even more conservative and predictable. 

Look for a close low scoring battle here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins finished second in the majors in weighted on base average. The New York Yankees finished second in wOBA. These are two elite offenses. The Yankees are much healthier than they have been most of the year, and this is a scary good offense. The Twins have a .361 wOBA against lefties, which is much better than their .342 wOBA against right handed pitching.

Jose Berrios has drastic home/road splits in his career. He has allowed a .287 wOBA at home. He has allowed a .330 wOBA on the road. Berrios has also been much better in the first half of the season (.293 wOBA allowed) than in the second half (.328 wOBA allowed) in his career.

James Paxton is inconsistent. He has a high upside, but he also has some blowup potential. 

Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire, and he ranks as one of the top five over umpires in my umpire database over the last five years.

With these two strong offenses and a relatively low total, I like the value on the over.

Take the over here. 

*4 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots defense has allowed 3 points so far this year. New England has certainly played some weak offenses so far this year, but the Patriots have a top two or three defense in the NFL. I love their defensive schemes, and I think they will give Buffalo a lot of trouble here.

Buffalo scored only 17 points on the Jets and 21 on a subpar Bengals defense. The Bills offense still has a ton of question marks for me. I think Josh Allen is a gamer and I like the fight he puts up, but this Patriots defense is likely to give him and the Bills offense significant trouble.

The Bills defense is a top six or seven defense in the NFL. New England is dealing with a lot of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line is a particular area of concern right now for New England. Edelman is banged up on the outside as well. 

A divisional game like this with two excellent defenses- I like this one to be low scoring.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Low totals in domes have been good plays on the over in the NFL in the last decade. That is especially true in non-division games like this one. 

The Oakland Raiders defense is a bottom three or four defense in the NFL. I really like the Colts offensive play callers and I think Jacoby Brissett is better than most people realize. Look for the Colts to have a good game plan ready to take advantage of this Raiders defense.

The Colts play a soft zone and the Raiders should be able to use their short passing game to move it down the field here. Indianapolis has a bunch of key injuries on defense. The secondary was their weakness to begin with, and Malik Hooker is a big loss for them.

The sharp money likes the over here, and I have to agree. This is a low total for a game in a dome and between two teams with clear defensive problems.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The forecast in Laramie calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts to 40 mph during this game. That kind of wind is enough to make a huge difference in a game. 

Wyoming and UNLV are already fairly predictable offensively. These are two bottom five passing offenses in the nation. The passing game will be even less of an option with this weather. Expect both teams to load up the box and dare their opposition to try to throw it over them.

UNLV plays at a moderate pace, and Wyoming plays very slowly. UNLV does have a lot of potential in the running game normally, but Wyoming is 13th in the nation in ypc allowed. Wyoming's running attack will move the ball here, but it should take a lot of time off the clock. Field goals will definitely be difficult in this weather as well.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The pace between these two should be especially quick. Arkansas State has a backup quarterback here or this would have been a bigger play for me. I still think the Red Wolves can have enough offensive success here though.

Troy has been excellent on offense thus far this year, and I think they can take advantage of a weak Arkansas State secondary. Troy has big play ability and they have a veteran signal caller.

Both defenses have given up a bunch of explosive this year. Look for a quick pace with plenty of big plays to get us to a relatively low total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies are typically a pretty conservative team under Chris Petersen. Petersen is a great coach, and he should have his team ready for this game. Clay Helton isn't a good coach. USC has a lot of talent, but it's hard to say how prepared they will be here.

USC starts quarterback Matt Fink here. Fink had good numbers last week against Utah, but he threw a lot of jump balls that ended up working out. Washington's secondary is definitely better than the Utah secondary though, and I'm not confident Fink will look as good here.

Washington should have the lead here, and they play at a slow tempo. They will run it more often late in the game if they are in the lead.

Also important to note is the weather. The forecast calls for a 50% chance of showers during this game in the pacific northwest. There will be 11 mph winds and gusts to 22 mph. That is definitely a positive for the under.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers need to keep winning games. They have been playing extremely well of late. Jordan Lyles has been very good for Milwaukee. Lyles has a 2.31 ERA in 10 starts for the Brewers. Lyles comes into this game in good form. He's up against a Reds offense that ranks 24th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. 

Tyler Mahle has pitched better at home this year than on the road. Mahle has a .309 wOBA allowed at home. The Brewers offense ranks 20th in the majors in wOBA in the last 30 days. 

Both of these bullpens have been pitching well. The weather conditions aren't overly hot in Cincinnati here. 

Bill Miller is the home plate umpire here, and he is one of the two biggest under umpires in all of baseball. Going back the last five years, Miller has the second highest strikeout/walk ratio of any umpire. He has called 65.05% of pitches a strike this year, which is far above the MLB average.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have been ruining all kinds of chances to score with turnovers and stalled out drives deep in opponents territory. The Chargers have played two pretty good defenses so far this year, and LA still ranks 4th in the NFL in yards per play. Rivers is still a good quarterback and he is surrounded by quite a few weapons. 

The Houston Texans offense has a lot of potential. As long as they open it up enough here and throw the ball early and often, I see this as a matchup where they can score plenty of points. Deshaun Watson is a really good quarterback, and he has tremendous wide receivers. The Chargers secondary is badly banged up, and Houston has a big edge at wide receiver.

The Texans biggest weakness now is also in the secondary. Their defensive line isn't quite as strong as it was a year ago either. Look for Rivers to do some damage on this Texans secondary.

I see both passing games having a clear edge here.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers I view as an under team at least early in the season. This Green Bay defense is much better than they were a year ago. I like their athleticism and speed at all positions. 

Denver's offense is very weak. Joe Flacco simply isn't the answer, and Denver is going to struggle all year on offense. They simply aren't explosive enough. I see the Broncos as a team who tries to play fairly conservative offensively, and they don't have enough weapons either.

Green Bay's offensive tempo has been very slow so far this year. The Packers new offense hasn't worked well thus far. Green Bay is 2-0 because of their defense. The Packers offense is 30th in the NFL in yards per play so far this year, behind the Chicago Bears and just ahead of the New York Jets. 

The weather could be helpful here. The long-term forecast calls for 15 mph winds during this game and a chance of rain. Wind certainly helps the under.

Take the under here. 

*5 Star Top Play Over* Texas State ranks 19th in tempo so far this year. Georgia State ranks 24th in the nation in tempo. Two top 25 teams in pace of play should mean a lot of possessions here. 

Georgia State ranks 129th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. Texas State ranks 119th in yards per play allowed. These two defenses have been terrible. 

Texas State is allowing nearly 6 yards per play, and Georgia State is going to run it early and often here. They should be able to expose the weakness of the Texas State run defense here.

Texas State's new OC Bob Stitt wants them to air it out early and often. How much are they throwing it? Texas State has thrown the football on a whopping 68% of their offensive plays so far this year. If it weren't for some terrible turnovers in plus territory, Texas State's offense would have scored a lot more points so far this year.

Plenty of tempo from both teams and two very weak offenses. 

Take the over. 5 Star TOP Play. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals offense looks different this year with Drew Plitt at quarterback. Ball State is airing it out far more often than they did in recent seasons. Plitt has thrown 11 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions so far this year. He is completing a whopping 70.6% of his passes. 

Ball State ranks 10th in the nation in tempo. They will try to play as quickly as possible here. They are also likely to be behind, which should make them play even quicker and be even more pass heavy. The Cardinals offense has been much better than most expected this season.

NC State has gotten decent production from their offense this year, and Ball State's defense is very weak. Ball State has very little pass rush, and I think they'll give up quite a few big plays here.

While NC State's defense is good, they are much better against the run than the pass. This secondary isn't great and I think Ball State can score enough to get over this reasonable total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets have to win nearly every game the rest of the way to have any chance at the NL Wild Card spot. They likely won't make it, but they still have plenty of reasons to keep fighting. 

Zack Wheeler has been tremendous down the stretch for the Mets. Wheeler has allowed only 4 runs in his last 25 innings pitched. He has allowed 1 run in each of his last four starts. Wheeler is doing a very good job inducing soft contact of late.

Anthony DeSclafani has been pitching really well in the 2nd half of the season. DeSclafani had a .332 wOBA allowed in the first half, but it is all the way down to .261 in the second half. 

The Mets bullpen ranks 3rd in FIP in the last 30 days, and the Reds bullpen ranks 9th in bullpen FIP in the last 30 days.

The under is 15-5-1 in DeSclafani's last 21 starts.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* UAB has typically been a good rushing offense, but the Blazers are averaging only 3.24 ypc yards per carry so far this year. That's bad to start with, but when you consider they have played Alabama State and Akron that is especially bad.

UAB does still have a very solid defense. Though they have played two bad teams, they have allowed only 20 plays of 10 yards or more and 7 plays of 20 yards or more. 

South Alabama has improved defensively from a year ago. This is a team that is being coached to try to avoid giving up the big play this year. UAB moves slowly so even when they score it is likely to take quite a bit of time.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have a really strong offense. Western Michigan has very nice balance. They rank 9th in the nation in yards per play. The Broncos have 22 plays of 20 yards or more already this season. The Syracuse defense has been a disappointment. The Orange have allowed a whopping 48 plays of 10 yards or more already this season.

Syracuse's offense hasn't looked good so far this year. They have played a pretty tough schedule though, and Western Michigan's defense is very weak. Remember, Western Michigan's defense made Michigan State's very weak offense look great just a couple weeks ago.

Syracuse will push the pace, and their offense should look a lot better here. Western Michigan's offense should be able to move the ball a lot as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs have consistently been better on offense on the road than at home. That isn't common at all, but under Andy Reid they are averaging almost 3 points per game more on the road than at home. In fact, the over is 16-5 in the Chiefs last 21 road games. The defense has been even worse on the road, and the offense has stepped up away from home.

Oakland's defense looked pretty good against Denver this past Monday night, but I don't have to tell you there is a huge difference in looking good against the Denver Broncos offense led by Joe Flacco and this KC offense led by Patrick Mahomes. Even without Hill, there are more than enough weapons here to take advantage of a weak Oakland secondary that is now without a starting safety as well.

Oakland's offense didn't have to do much in the second half against Denver, but they'll need to keep pushing to score here. Derek Carr has better players around him this year, and he knows the system better now as well. The Chiefs defense is a clear weakness, and I expect Oakland to connect on some big plays here.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers defense looked excellent in week one. I know the Bears aren't a great offense by any means, but I liked what I saw from the Packers in terms of speed and athleticism on defense.

Minnesota has a top five defense in the NFL. The Vikings won't make it easy on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in their new offense. Green Bay looked very shaky offensively in week one.

This is a divisional rivalry, and these games have stayed under the total far more often than they have gone over. 

The long range weather shows 15 mph winds for this game which is just an added bonus.

The under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams.

Take the under. 

*5 Star TOP Play Over* Texas State’s new offensive scheme is a good one. They couldn’t get anything going against Texas A&M, but they moved the ball easily against Wyoming. Texas State’s turnovers and missed FG’s make it look like their offense wasn’t that good. The score doesn’t reflect how well their offense played. They also played much faster than they did in week one. Bob Stitt’s system is being implemented.

SMU looks much better offensively with a good quarterback to run Sonny Dykes’ system. They have put up 37 and 49 points in their first two contests. Take the over.

*5 Star TOP Play Under*

Both of these teams always circle this game. It’s an important rivalry game for these two schools. These rivalry games make me lean to the under to start with, and in the recent games against each other the under has had value.

Ohio has decided to slow the tempo down drastically. They rank as the 9th slowest team in the nation pace wise. Marshall is also slightly slower than an average team in tempo.

This is too high of a number. Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans offense will likely throw the ball a lot this year with a veteran quarterback and a good group of wide receivers. 

Southern Miss had an elite defense last year, but they lost a ton of players from that unit. The Golden Eagles aren't bad defensively, but they aren't close to last year's level.

Southern Miss is playing quicker and they are going to take more shots downfield in their new offensive scheme. Look for them to be able to get some big gainers on a Troy secondary that is questionable.

This total is a few points too low. 

The over is 40-17 in Troy's last 57 non-conference games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen defense is atrocious. They allowed 48 points against a terrible Rutgers offense in week one. They then gave up 45 points to Southern Illinois (a subpar FCS team) in week two. I’ve been really impressed with the Charlotte offense under their new head coach. They rolled up more than 500 yards of offense against Appalachian State last week. 

UMass has allowed a ridiculous 33 plays of 10 yards or more in just two games. Charlotte has been explosive on offense already this year. They have 34 plays of 10 yards or more offensively in two games. 

Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 of the country in total defense. UMass should score enough here, and Charlotte is likely to put up a big number. 

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* Iowa/Iowa State under- Brock Purdy is a good quarterback for Iowa State, but he lacks weapons around him. Iowa State’s front seven on defense is amazing. Iowa always plays slowly and has a fairly cautious game plan. The Hawkeyes once again have a very good defense. This is a rivalry game where points are at a premium normally. I don’t see that being any different this season. Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* Graham Harrell’s offense looked great last weekend in USC’s win over Stanford. Slovis is a nice fit at quarterback, and he has some extremely talented receivers around him. USC is playing very quickly as well. This USC defense is way down from where it was a few years ago. USC ranks 78th in YPP allowed so far this year, and they haven’t even played great offenses. BYU’s offense should be improved with Wilson at the helm.

*5 Star TOP Play Under* The last three games between Miami (Ohio) and Cincinnati have finished with a total of 47, 38, and 21 points. Last year's game was played in poor weather, so that one should be discounted at least somewhat. Still, this has been a low scoring series for quite some time. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two.

This is a game that means a lot to both teams. Miami Ohio is in Oxford, which is only about 50 minutes from Cincinnati. Cincinnati has been winning in this series consistently, but there have been a bunch of close low scoring games.

Cincinnati's defense looked bad last week against Ohio State, but the Bearcats defense was excellent last year, and they certainly aren't playing an offense similar in any fashion to Ohio State here in the Miami Ohio Redhawks. 

Miami only ran for 2.4 ypc against Iowa in week one. The Redhawks totaled only 245 yards. In fact, Miami only had 349 yards against Tennessee Tech last weekend. There are a lot of questions about this Miami offense. They are young at quarterback, and he isn't surrounded by very much talent. 

Cincinnati's offense was due for some regression after their amazing success on 3rd down and long last year. The Bearcats are good on offense, but Miami's defense is the strength of their team. The Redhawks won't be able to stop Cincinnati, but I think they can slow them down.

In terms of tempo, Miami is 91st in the country and Cincinnati is 120th. There won't be any fast paced play going on here. I think both defenses do a good enough job of preventing explosive plays to make this under very valuable. 

Miami is running the ball nearly 60% of the time so far this year, and Cincinnati runs it on 63% of their plays. Running clock is always helpful.

I had this one lined quite a few points lower.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Over*

Wake Forest pushes pace about as much as anyone in the country. North Carolina wants to play quicker this year as well. The Tar Heels have faced two good defenses in the first two weeks. The Wake Forest defense isn’t good. Wake Forest has put up big numbers in back to back games, and I think they’ll be able to score plenty again here. Lots of pace and a lot of scoring from each side. Take the over.

*4 Star Play Under* Kolby Allard has been very good for the Texas Rangers. Allard is a young lefty who was one of the better pitching prospects in the Rangers organization. After some poor starts earlier this year, Allard has allowed a combined 3 runs in his last three starts. Allard is doing a great job inducing soft contact. Of the 103 batted balls against Allard, only two have been barreled. 

Brendon McKay entered this year as a top 20 prospect in all of baseball. McKay has been up and down this year, but he is coming of a good start. He's also against a shorthanded Texas lineup here.

Both of these offenses have been shaky of late, and both of them are much weaker against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Texas ranks 25th in the majors in wOBA against lefties. Tampa Bay isn't much better at #20. 

This is clearly a hitters ballpark, but we have two good lefties and a high total. The Rangers bullpen has been league average in the past month. The Rays bullpen has been top 10 in the majors all year.

The under is 7-2 in the Rangers last 9 games vs. a lefty.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers lost their superstar Christian Yelich to a fractured kneecap on Tuesday night. Yelich was having an amazing season, and as a fan I absolutely hated seeing him go down.  

Ben Gamel and Hernan Perez are expected to get a lot of time in the outfield in place of Christian Yelich. I don't have to tell you that it is a big downgrade from Yelich to either of those guys. The Brewers offense only ranks 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days even with Yelich in the lineup. Manny Pina is out of the lineup as well. 

The Miami Marlins have had the worst offense in baseball this year. In 8 of their last 11 home games they have scored 3 runs or less. Zach Davies doesn't rack up strikeouts, but he does induce soft contact and he should be able to navigate through this weak offense.

Pablo Lopez is a high upside pitcher who has been tremendous at home this year. Lopez has a 0.93 WHIP at home this season. He is coming off an excellent start in his last outing.

A total this high with a game involving the Marlins is fairly rare, and with the Brewers shorthanded on offense I'll side with the under. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* This game means a lot to both teams as they battle in the crowded NL Wild Card race. 

The DBacks have scored 3 runs or less in four of their last six games. This isn't a particularly deep lineup, and they have struggled in recent days.

The Mets start Zach Wheeler here, and he has been in great form of late. Wheeler has allowed only one run in each of his last two starts. He also has allowed 0 or 1 run in four of his last seven starts. 

Zach Gallen was one of the highest rated pitching prospects in baseball, and he has great stuff. Gallen has a swinging strike rate of 12.9% this year. He has a 1.41 and 1.79 FIP in his last two starts.

Doug Eddings is behind the plate here, and he is the single best under umpire in baseball. He'll help both pitchers.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Patriots were a much different team late last season than what they were the season before. They looked to run the ball far more. The Patriots also were led by their strong defense. I don't think most people realize how good this defense is now. This is a top five defense in the NFL. With Tom Brady aging, I think a more conservative game plan will likely continue.

The Steelers defense should be considerably better with Bush at linebacker. He gives the team that quick linebacker in the middle of the field that they have been missing the last couple seasons. 

I think both teams will do a good job keeping everything in front of them here. A tight game where both teams have to settle for field goals several times should keep this one under.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* These divisional rivals square off in week one of the NFL regular season. The New York Giants are without a couple key wide receivers, which should make their game plan even more conservative for this game. Look for a lot of running the football and short passes. That should keep the clock moving quite a bit.

Dallas will look to run it a lot and the Cowboys still aren't likely to take too many deep shots in this offense. Kellen Moore's system should take some time to get established, especially since Zeke hasn't been around until a few days ago. 

New York's Saquon Barkley is likely to bust quite a few big plays this year, but Dallas' linebackers make it harder to break big gainers on this team than the average NFL defense. Dallas is absolutely loaded at linebacker, and their speed is impressive. 

Five of the last six games between these two teams have finished at 40 points or less. Look for another hard fought contest here.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers and Oakland A's have both been involved in a lot of high scoring games of late. In Detroit's last ten games there has been an average of 10.6 runs scored. In the A's last ten games, there has been an average of 10.6 runs per game scored. 

Detroit's bullpen ranks as the worst in the majors in FIP on the year, and Daniel Norris hasn't been pitching deep into thte game of late. Norris has gone only 3 innings in each of his last 5 outings. Oakland is much better against left handed pitching as well. I would expect Oakland to have a lot of scoring opportunities in this game.

While the Tigers offense isn't good, they are much better against lefties than right handed pitching. Sean Manaea hasn't been going deep into games in the minors either, and while the A's late inning bullpen is great their middle relief is questionable. 

A good umpire for the over here in David Rackley. 

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans have injury/suspension trouble on the offensive line. You don't want to be facing this Cleveland Browns pass rush with question marks on the offensive line. 

Marcus Mariota hasn't shown himself to be very good when under pressure in the NFL. The Titans will likely look to run the ball quite a bit here and bleed the clock. They don't want to get into a shootout here, and they know they have pass protection issues.

Cleveland's offensive line isn't very good in pass protection either. Cameron Wake is a nice addition for the Titans, and I see this Titans defense as underrated. They don't have many stars, but they don't have any glaring weaknesses either. 

Baker Mayfield is very good, but he can have some interception issues and I wouldn't be surprised if a couple drives are slowed by a pick or two here. The Browns running game isn't great either.

With an extra emphasis on holding calls this year, I see this as a game where there could be a lot of offensive holding penalties with the Oline's struggling to keep the pass rush off their quarterback.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* Western Kentucky will look to play faster and air it out under Helton this year. The Hilltoppers defense was taken advantage of by Central Arkansas last week. FIU has a very efficient offense and I would expect FIU to take advantage of Western Kentucky's secondary here.

FIU faced a much tougher defensive line in Tulane last week and that bothered them. They don't face anything similar here from Western Kentucky.

Look for a lot of scoring in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Florida State was clicking on all cylinders in the first half last week against Boise State. They stalled out in a big way in the second half. Expect Kendal Briles to have some fixes for this week. The Seminoles have a huge talent advantage against the LA Monroe Warhawks here.

Importantly, Florida State was playing 5 seconds per play quicker than they did a year ago. The Seminoles played at the 2nd quickest pace of any team in the country in week one. I think they can put up a big number here.

Monroe has a veteran quarterback and a pretty good offense. They won't score too many, but it should be enough to get this past the total.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Baylor ranked 125th in red zone offense last year. They had some very untimely turnovers in the red zone last year, and I would expect much better from them with another year in this system and a veteran quarterback in Charlie Brewer. Brewer has improved weapons around him, and this offensive line is definitely better than a year ago.

UTSA has nowhere to go but up compared to last year on offense. They still won't be good on offense, but they will be improved. They have a new offensive coordinator who has helped them have a better scheme.

Baylor's offense is way too good for this UTSA defense. The UTSA secondary is a major weakness, and I would expect Baylor to have a lot of guys running wide open in this one. The Bears have picked up their tempo a bit as well.

The extreme heat (100 degrees) is helpful for an over as well. There are multiple strong angles regarding taking the over in a hot game. 

Look for Baylor to put up a big number here and UTSA to do enough to get this past the posted total.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado Buffaloes defense is way down from a year ago. Nebraska will push the tempo in a big way here, and I think this number is lower than it should be based on Nebraska's struggles last week. Nebraska's offense should get right this week and put up a big number here.

The Colorado offense is really dangerous with Montez and Shenault as the stars of the unit. Look for them to be able to find holes in this Nebraska secondary. 

I think this number is several points too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Mississippi State's defense was amazing last year. While I don't think they will be bad this year, they lost nearly everything from last season on the defensive end. The Bulldogs defense is going to give up a lot more than they did a year ago.

On the other side of the ball, Tommy Stevens is likely a good fit for the Bulldogs offense due to the fact that he has worked with Joe Moorhead in the past and knows this offense well.

Southern Miss has a new offensive coordinator this year. He was an assistant at Arkansas State, and I would expect Southern Miss to turn up the tempo this year and pick up more big gainers. Southern Miss has a strong offensive line and the Golden Eagles offense should be far more efficient this year than it was a year ago.

Both of these teams played in a lot of low scoring contests last year, which has kept this number down enough to give us value.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers aired it out early and often last week against Nevada. Purdue averaged 6.41 yards per play, so they moved the ball well. Turnovers were a big problem for the Boilers. Vanderbilt has had a strong secondary in the past, but they lost a lot from that unit, and I would expect Purdue's excellent group of wide receivers to be able to do damage against this secondary. Elijah Sindelar is a quarterback capable of throwing a pick six on a questionable decision or completing a long touchdown. The Boilermakers tempo was more than two seconds per play faster than last season in their week one game, and that is despite the fact they led for much of that game.

Vanderbilt said in the preseason they would play somewhat faster under their new offensive coordinator, and that was true in week one. They faced an elite defense in Georgia last week, but this Purdue defense is far worse. Purdue gives up too many big plays. Riley Neal and the Vanderbilt offense should move the ball pretty well here too.

I had this number at 60, so we are getting several points of value.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco Giants and the St. Louis Cardinals played a high scoring tight game on Wednesday night, but I think this one is a lower scoring contest once again. Before last night, the last 3 games between these two teams had finished 1-0, 3-1, and 1-0. 

Dakota Hudson has been a streaky pitcher in his career. Hudson has pitched far better at home, and he has a much better WHIP in day games in his career. Hudson's biggest weakness is his lack of control. The Giants aren't a team with good plate discipline though. San Francisco has the second lowest walk percentage in the majors in the past month. Hudson hasn't allowed a run in 3 of his last 4 outings.

Logan Webb is a highly touted prospect for the Giants. Webb had tremendous numbers in the minors, and he has been good in 2 of his 3 big league starts. Webb has good swing and miss stuff, and these Cardinals hitters have never seen him before.

Cory Blaser is the home plate umpire, and he is one of the better under umpires in the majors. This is a get away day game as well.

Both of these bullpens are top notch, and the two defensive are good as well.

Take the under here. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros start Gerrit Cole here. Justin Verlander just threw a no hitter yesterday, so the Astros bullpen is clearly well rested.

Cole's season long numbers are absolutely amazing. He has better advanced metrics than does Verlander. While I'm not saying he actually is better than Verlander, the two of them are far closer than many would believe. Cole has a great 2.85 ERA on the year, but in his last 14 starts he has a 1.94 ERA. Cole has a ridiculous 36 strikeouts and only 2 walks in his last three starts.

Adrian Houser has been getting a lot of soft contact of late, and this is a guy who I was too low on for quite a while. This is a very tough Astros lineup, but Houser has allowed just 1 earned run in each of his last four starts. He has a tremendous .276 wOBA allowed at home this year.

The under has been the way to look long term in the interleague contests, and the Astros lose a hitter here for this one. In addition, Correa is injured and Gurriel is questionable with an elbow contusion. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have arguably the best secondary in the MAC. Eastern Michigan will give teams who want to air it out often a hard time this year. Eastern Michigan is weak in the front seven though. Kyle Rachwal was the heart and soul of the linebackers and he is gone after racking up 127 tackles last year. The defensive tackles aren't very good against the run. That's important in this game.

Coastal Carolina is all about the run. The Chanticleers ran it on 66% of their offensive plays last year, and they might run it even more this year. They have some impressive talent at running back, and they have several guys who will see the field at that position. Look for them to have success breaking some big plays here.

Eastern Michigan's offense should be improved this year. The Eagles should be more balanced with a good athlete at quarterback in Mike Glass. The Coastal Carolina defense was horrible last year. They allowed 7.30 yards per play last year. They allowed a whopping 82 plays of 20 yards or more. Eastern Michigan should be able to move it consistently here as well.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Kendal Briles is the new offensive coordinator at Florida State. At Houston, Briles' offense was easily the fastest pace team in the nation. Briles has been stressing pushing the tempo ever since he got to Florida State. 

The Seminoles offense has too many talented players at the skill positions to not improve a lot in this new system. The OLine is still the weakness, but Briles should be able to draw up better plays and get the ball out quicker. 

Boise State isn't as strong in the secondary as many years, and I think the Seminoles will break some big plays. 

Boise State's offense typically moves at a normal tempo, and I don't think they will slow the game down too much here. The Broncos still have playmakers on the offensive end, and this Florida State defense will have to adjust to being on the field more with the offense playing at such a quick tempo.

This game was moved to Tallahassee and will start at noon. The hurricane winds shouldn't reach here until at least Sunday, and the current forecast calls for winds of only 6 mph during this game. 

With the tempo this game will be played at, I have to side with the over.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play on Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes play at an extremely fast pace under Sean Lewis. He was an assistant under Dino Babers, and he'll keep speeding this team up. Woody Barrett returns for another year at quarterback, and I think he is a really good fit for this offense. Barrett can run or throw, and the receivers are very solid for the Golden Flashes.

Kent State's defense gives up loads of big plays. The Golden Flashes allowed a whopping 42 plays of 30 yards or more last year. They won't be good this year either, and Arizona State still has some big play guys on offense.

Arizona State lost Manny Wilkins, but I really like Jayden Daniels. Daniels might struggle against top defenses as a freshman, but this is a great opportunity for him. Eno Benjamin is a great running back, and he should have a huge game against this Kent State defense. 

I would expect the pace here to be pretty quick, and the explosive plays from Arizona State should come often. Kent State's offense will be much improved this season.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Texas State Bobcats will look totally different this year. Jake Spavital is an offensive minded coach who wants to play uptempo. He brought in Bob Stitt, who is known as a mastermind of the fly sweep and many other unique offensive formations. Stitt is a guy who coaches turned to as they looked for innovation in the spread formation. 

Look for Texas State to go 4 or 5 wide often and use a lot of motion and quick passes. They won't substitute often because they really want to push the pace. While the Bobcats aren't great on offense right now, I think they can do enough here against Texas A&M.

The Aggies have a huge advantage offensively vs. an undersized Texas State defensive front. Look for plenty of big gainers from the Aggies offense led by Kellen Mond. 

With the tempo being at an extreme and the weather looking favorable here, I think this total is too low.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Angels have been much better offensively at home than on the road. The over is 8-1 in the Angels last 9 home games. In this one, they'll be up against a very weak starting pitcher in Ariel Jurado. Jurado's velocity is down significantly of late, and he is giving up all kinds of hard contact. Jurado has allowed 22 runs in his last 13 and 2/3 innings. He isn't missing bats, and the Angels should get to him here. Jurado will be the bulk pitcher in this game after Emmanuel Clase will be the opener here.

Patrick Sandoval has some potential, but Sandoval struggles to throw strikes. The Rangers looked good against him recently. Sandoval also has yet to throw more than 5 innings in a game, and the Angels bullpen is shorthanded and has been in really poor form of late.

Paul Emmel is the home plate umpire here- and he is one of the top three or four over umpires in baseball. His strikes called percentage and strikeout/walk ratio show an extreme bias toward the hitter.

Take the over.   

*4 Star Play Under* The Houston Astros send Justin Verlander to the hill while the Tampa Bay Rays send Charlie Morton to the hill on Tuesday night. These guys have been amazing all year, and they enter this game in great form. Verlander has an amazing 2.25 ERA and a .233 wOBA allowed in the second half of the season. Morton has given up a few runs in recent starts, but that has been largely due to poor batted ball luck.

Verlander has walked 3 batters and struck out 56 in his last five starts. That's remarkable stuff. Morton isn't far behind with 2 walks and 32 strikeouts in his last four starts. 

What about the bullpen behind them? The Rays have the single best SIERA as a bullpen in the last 30 days. The Astros are second. These are two deep bullpens who are very strong.

Look for a low scoring game here as both starters get a lot of swings and misses. 

The under is 6-1 in Verlander's last 7 games. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* Anytime I see Hector Noesi starting for one team and the total in the game is set this low, I have to look to the over. It doesn't hurt that Vince Velasquez is on the other side either.

Velasquez has a history of pitching his worst late in the season. He's already had a questionable season against this Marlins lineup. Velasquez is giving up far more hard contact this year than he did a year ago. His ERA is lower than last year, but all of the advanced metrics suggest he has been much worse this year. He is due for some regression. The Marlins offense has actually scored 5.45 runs per game in their last 11 home contests.

Noesi is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He went three years without pitching in the majors, and now he is back and getting crushed again as he did back in 2014 and 2015. Noesi wasn't good in the minors earlier this year (5.33 FIP) and now he has allowed 16 runs in less than 16 innings pitched in the majors this year. He's backed by a Marlins bullpen that has the worst FIP in baseball in the last 30 days.

Both teams have the potential to have some big innings in this one.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Royals offense is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average in the last month, and it isn't even close. The Royals struggle to put together rallies because they just don't have enough big league quality hitters on their roster. 

Zach Plesac has been good so far this year, and he goes up against a weak offense here. Plesac does give up a lot of home runs, but the Royals don't have much power and the conditions aren't favorable for hitting here.

Jakob Junis is an interesting pitcher in that he has drastically different splits in the first half of the season and second half of the season in his career. Junis has a 5.03 ERA and a .349 wOBA allowed in the first half in his career. He has an impressive 3.44 ERA and a .301 wOBA allowed in the second half in his career. He has gone 6 innings or more and allowed 2 runs or less in 5 of his last 8 starts.

The under has done really well at Progressive Field with the wind blowing in. This is a park where the weather plays a larger role than most believe. A cool summer day with the wind blowing in is a big benefit to the under here.

The under is 5-0 in the Royals last 5 road games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 5-0 in Junis' last 5 starts in Cleveland. A combined 10-0 angle. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals have scored 74 runs in their last 7 games. Washington is at their best against lefties. The Nationals rank 5th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties this season. In the last 30 days, Washington ranks second to only the Yankees in overall weighted on base average. 

Steven Brault is a lefty and he's a mediocre lefty. He's pitched fairly well of late, but this is a difficult matchup for him. Brault walks a lot of batters and there should be plenty of traffic on the bases against him tonight.

Max Scherzer starts for the Nationals, but they won't let him pitch deep into the game as he comes off an injury. What does that mean? It means we see a lot of the Nationals bullpen. Washington's bullpen has been the worst in baseball this year, and they have a couple injuries that have them even more short handed now. 

A total set this low with the Nationals bullpen in for quite a while and the Nationals offense as hot as they are, and I have to take the over.

Take the over here. 

*3 Star Play Over* Citizens Bank Ballpark is one where the weather matters quite a it. Hot days with the wind blowing out have been very good for the over in the past. How good? With a temperature of 84 degrees or higher and wind blowing out at all the over is 55-38 (59%). When that wind is 7 mph or more the over is 37-18-1. A temperature of 90 degrees with winds out at 7 or 8 mph are in the forecast here.

Jason Vargas and Joey Lucchesi both have splits that show them getting worse in the second half of the season in their careers. Both of these teams are a lot better offensively against lefties than righties as well.

Lucchesi has a 1.16 WHIP in the first half in his career and a 1.40 WHIP in the second half. His starts on day games have been notably worst than night games as well.

Tom Woodring is a great over umpire behind the dish as well. The over is 10-2 in his last 12 games behind the plate.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies are both significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Both lineups will square off against a lefty in this matchup.

Arizona ranks 3rd in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. The Rockies rank 9th in wOBA against lefties. 

The Rockies are dead last in the majors in wOBA on the road, and they are first in the majors in wOBA at home. Coors Field is still the ultimate hitters ballpark. Arizona has scored 8 and 9 runs in the first two games of this series. 

The DBacks bullpen has been middle of the road in the past month, but the Rockies have the second worst bullpen ERA in the majors in the past 30 days.

Robbie Ray has been absolutely torched by this Rockies offense. While his ERA looks decent at Coors, his WHIP is a very high 1.761 here. Ray has allowed an awful .492 wOBA against this Rockies lineup overall in his career. Kyle Freeland has been a mess all year, and the DBacks have given him major trouble in the past. Arizona has an impressive .378 wOBA against him.

With a temperature in the low 90's for a day game at Coors, I expect a lot of runs.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Boyd was tremendous earlier this year. Boyd had a .267 weighted on base average allowed through the first two months of the year. He has gradually fallen off since that time. Boyd has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 10 games. He has a 5.08 ERA and a .324 wOBA allowed in the second half of the season thus far. In his last game, he walked 3 batters and only struck out one.

Yusei Kikuchi has been disappointing this year. He has a 5.34 ERA and 5.88 FIP. Kikuchi has a terrible 6.93 ERA and a .416 wOBA in the second half of the season thus far.

The Mariners and Tigers are both significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching.

These two bullpens rank 28th and 29th in the majors in FIP on the season. 

The wind is blowing out at Comerica, and this is a park with very strong angles to the over with the wind blowing out. In fact, with a temperature of 65 degrees or warmer and a wind blowing out at 10 mph or more (11 mph out is the forecast here) the over is a whopping 44-19 in the last 63 situations.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Joey Lucchesi gets the ball here for San Diego. Lucchesi has been tremendous at home this year. He has a 2.71 ERA at home and has allowed a weighted on base average of only .250 at Petco Park. 

Diego Castillo serves as the opener for the Rays here. Austin Pruitt should be next in line, but Kevin Cash has made it clear that he may have to use the team's bullpen depth more in this series because of the pitcher batting. The Padres are 21st in wOBA against right handed pitching.

Both of these teams rank in the top six in bullpen SIERA and xFIP in the last 30 days, so they enter in good form. 

This is still clearly a very good pitcher's park, and interleague games in NL stadiums have trended toward the under in the past several years.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play on Over* These two bullpens have been absolutely terrible of late. They took turns getting shelled in Saturday night's game. The Braves ended up blowing a big lead and the Marlins picked up the comeback win.

For the year, both of these bullpens rank in the bottom ten in the advanced metrics. In the past 30 days, both of these teams rank in the bottom five. The Marlins are 26th in bullpen FIP in that time and the Braves are 29th. 

Mike Foltynewicz has potential, but he hasn't been good so far this year. His last start looks decent on paper giving up 3 runs in 5 and 1/3 in Minnesota, but he stranded tons of runners and had good batted ball luck in that one.

Hector Noesi makes the start for the Marlins here. Noesi has made one start since the end of the 2015 season in the majors. That start didn't go well at all. The Mets scored 5 runs on him in 5 innings pitched. Noesi has never been a good starter, and he has less velocity now and he's up against a great lineup.

The Marlins have allowed 6 runs or more in 7 of their last 11 games. The Marlins offense has shown signs of life in the past couple weeks too.

The over is 5-0 in the Braves last 5. The over is 4-0 in Foltynewicz's last 4 starts. The over is 5-0 in the Marlins last 5 home games. The over is 3-0-1 in the Marlins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A combined 24-0 angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Nationals and Mets play a really important series in New York this weekend. The Nationals started the season slowly, but they have been great since those early struggles. The Mets are on a ridiculous run that has them just barely on the outside looking in when it comes to the NL Wild Card race. 

Stephen Strasburg has been tremendous this year as long as he isn't up against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Strasburg has been torched by Arizona twice. Before that last poor start, Strasburg had allowed only 4 runs in his last 5 starts combined. For the season, his numbers are the best of his career. Strasburg has been great at Citi Field in his career too. He has a 2.18 ERA and a 0.996 WHIP in 12 starts at Citi Field.

Marcus Stroman didn't really expect to be in a playoff race when he was traded to the Mets, but here he is. Stroman has high quality stuff and he has induced a lot more soft contact this year than in previous seasons. 

The fact that both teams had the day off yesterday helps. The bullpens should have their best arms ready to go. 

The under is 13-3 in the Nationals last 16 road games. The under is 19-9-1 in Strasburg's last 29 road starts. 

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The St. Louis Cardinals rank 23rd in the majors in weighted on base average on the season as a whole. They rank 26th in the last 30 days. The Cardinals lineup hasn't been good most of the year. They have had some short stretches where they look great, but most of the time they have been a disappointment. 

On the other hand, the Cardinals pitching staff has been good. They rank 9th in overall team ERA. The bullpen has been a top five bullpen in the majors for much of this season.

The Dodgers rank first in the majors in team ERA. The Dodgers bullpen is a top ten bullpen in the majors, and Clayton Kershaw pitching deep into the game last night was really helpful for this unit. 

Jack Flaherty was shaky early on this year, but he has been pitching great of late. Flaherty has a FIP of 2.88 or lower in four straight starts. He has allowed a grand total of 4 runs in his last five starts.

Dustin May is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. May has excellent stuff and his upside is great.

Doug Eddings has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire in the majors in the last five years.

The under is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 vs. the NL West. The under is 6-0 in Flaherty's last 6 starts during game 3 of a series. The under is 5-0-1 in Flaherty's last 6 starts overall. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 vs. the NL Central. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 games between these two in Los Angeles. A combined 26-0 angle. 

*3 Star Play Under* Clayton Kershaw has been great at home throughout his career. Kershaw has a great 2.35 ERA so far this year at home. Kershaw has been good at inducing soft contact. Kershaw has been in good form of late as well. He has allowed only 7 runs in his last 5 starts. He has thrown at least six innings in each of those starts. 

Miles Mikolas has allowed only 7 runs in his last 26 and 2/3 innings. Mikolas was shaky at the beginning of the season, but he has really improved in the last couple months. 

Both the Dodgers and Cardinals have a top 10 bullpen in FIP for the course of the season and in the last 30 days as well. 

The under is 6-0 in the Cardinals last 6 games after scoring 2 runs or less. The under is 6-0-1 in Mikolas' last 7 starts vs a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles. A combined 16-0 angle.

Bill Miller is a proven strike caller and he's behind the dish here. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Nationals rank 6th in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. Arizona ranks 11th in that statistic. Both teams are hitting the ball well.
Washington ranks 4th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Ray was initially scheduled here, but Young takes over and his advanced statistics are worse than Ray's. 
Joe Ross has been terrible as a starter in his big league career. He has a FIP of 5.6 in his career in the big leagues. The DBacks have enough offensive weapons to give him trouble and likely force some of the questionable long relief of the Nationals into the game.
I would expect both teams to get a lot of traffic on the bases in this one.
Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees have seen 10 of their last 11 games finish at 12 runs or higher, so this total isn't in all that high of a territory for the Yankees. New York is expected to get back DJ Lemahieu tonight and he is a big key for this offense. 

The Boston Red Sox are 7-0 to the over in their last 7 games. None of those games have finished with less than 11 runs. 

Since the All Star Break, Boston is ranked first in weighted on base average as a team. The Yankees are rated second in wOBA as a team.

Eduardo Rodriguez had an ERA of 6.14 at Yankee Stadium last season. James Paxton has been in terrible form of late. Paxton has a FIP of 6.22 or higher in three straight starts. 

The over is 12-1 in the Yankees last 13 games. The over is 12-1 in Rodriguez's last 13 road starts. The over is 7-0 in the Red Sox last 7 overall. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 games between these teams. A 38-2 combined angle.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* Justin Verlander and Shane Bieber is quite the pitching matchup. These are two of the top five bullpens in the majors as well. While it has been hot in Ohio in recent weeks, the temperature has cooled quite a bit compared to a couple weeks ago. The weather calls for a temperature in the upper 70's here with a very slight breeze blowing in from center field. 

Verlander has easily the highest swinging strike rate of his career at 15.6%, so he is fooling a lot of hitters. Verlander has looked sharp since the break. He has only allowed 4 earned runs in three starts since the break. He has a whopping 30 strikeouts in 18 innings pitched since the break.

Bieber clearly isn't on the same level as Verlander overall, but he is having a great season. Bieber has a 3.44 ERA and a 3.18 FIP. He has a tremendous swinging strike rate of 14.4%. How good has Bieber been lately? In his last eight starts, he has a FIP of 1.81 or lower in five of them. 

The under is 15-5-1 in Bieber's last 21 starts. The under is 13-6-1 in Verlander's last 20 starts. Expect a lot of swings and misses in Cleveland on Tuesday night.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The New York Yankees have played nine straight games that have gone over the total. There hasn't been less than 12 runs in any of those games. The Yankees have gotten healthier on offense, and this is a scary good lineup. The Yankees haven't been getting good starting pitching though, and their bullpen has been a bit shaky in the last week as well.

J.A. Happ is nearly 37 years old. Happ isn't even close to the pitcher he was a few years ago. He has a 5.23 ERA and a 5.31 FIP. Notably, Happ has been far worse when pitching at Yankee Stadium. At home, Happ has allowed a .369 weighted on base average. On the road, his WOBA allowed is only .304. The DBacks aren't very good against right handed pitching, but they are a top five offense against lefties.

Taylor Clarke pitched pretty well last time out against the Orioles. He won't get to face a weak lineup again here. Clarke has some really ugly numbers so far this season. He has allowed a .393 wOBA overall. Opposing hitters have barreled the ball on 12.9% of batted balls against him, which is one of the highest marks you will ever see. He is allowing a lot of hard contact, and he is giving up 2.26 home runs per nine innings. This is a recipe for disaster at Yankee Stadium in warm weather against this lineup. 

The over is 9-0 in the Yankees last 9 games. The over is 5-0 in Clarke's last 5 road starts.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Cubs and Brewers are rivals and they have a history of playing a lot of low scoring games against one another. The under is 30-8 in their last 38 games against each other.

Zach Davies is good at inducing soft contact. Davies has drastic 1st and 2nd half splits (better in the second half) in his career. He also has a 1.20 WHIP in day games and a 1.394 WHIP in night games.

Jose Quintana has held the Brewers to a .278 OBP in his career.The Brewers have been inconsistent on offense this year. 

Gary Cedarstrom is a clear positive for the under here with his strikes called % and strikeout/walk percentages. 

The under is 5-0 in the Cubs last 5 vs. the NL Central. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 8-0-1 in Davies' last 9 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 8-0 in Davies' last 8 games against the Cubs. The under is 5-0 in his last 5 home starts against the Cubs at home. A 30-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's have lost three straight games. They haven't hit a home run in three straight contests. Oakland's offense will have a favorable matchup here as they are up against Adrian Sampson. 

Sampson has allowed 18 runs in his last 10 innings as a starter. Sampson is allowing 1.94 homers per nine innings this season. A guy like Sampson who doesn't miss bats has to induce weak contact to be successful in the long run. He is giving up all sorts of hard contact right now. Sampson's exit velocity allowed is in the bottom five percent in the majors. 

Homer Bailey is coming off one of those awful starts that we saw with regularity from him last season and the year before. Bailey has been a bit better this year, but his lack of control lately is concerning. Bailey gives up a lot more hard contact than an average pitcher as well.

The Rangers bullpen has been overworked of late, and they rank in the bottom five in the majors in the past 30 days. The A's bullpen is mediocre as well.

The over is 7-1 in Sampson's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks rank fourth in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. John Means has had a great season, but this is a tough test for him. Means has a .258 wOBA allowed at home and a .328 wOBA allowed on the road. This is the highest ranked offense against lefties that he has faced this year so far. 

Means is a quality pitcher, but he is clearly due for some regression. Even with soft contact allowed, we can't expect Means to have a 2.95 ERA and a 4.36 FIP and 5.35 xFIP forever. He is also backed by a bottom five bullpen in baseball.

Taylor Clarke has been terrible this year. Clarke had a 7.22 ERA in Triple A this year. It hasn't gone well in the majors either. Clarke has a 6.50 ERA and a 6.46 FIP in the majors this season. He is giving up a ton of hard contact, and he has a swinging strike rate of only 8.8%. He doesn't have good enough secondary pitches.

Nick Lentz is the home plate umpire here. He has a strikeout/walk ratio of only 1.97 this year. Lentz is leaning heavily toward the over right now. He has been squeezing pitchers consistently this season. 

The over is 5-0 in Means' last 5 starts. The over is 3-0-1 in the DBacks last 4 games.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Padres take on the Mets at Citi Field on Tuesday night. A temperature in the mid 70's and a wind blowing in from center field is a positive for the under here.

Jason Vargas has been good since a really bad first 3 starts of the year. Vargas has been particularly good at home. He has allowed hitters only a .222 average and a .289 weighted on base average at home. Vargas excels at allowing soft contact, and Citi Field is a great pitchers park. 

Chris Paddack is a star youngster who is throwing it really well right now. Paddack combines the ability to make hitters swing and miss and an elite ability to induce soft contact. Paddack has allowed a grand total of 6 hits and only 2 runs in his last 19 innings pitched. He is walking only 1.9 batters per nine innings. 

The Mets have scored 4 runs or less in 10 of their last 14 games. 

The under is 12-0-1 in Vargas' last 13 home starts. The under is 7-0 in the Padres last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a lefty. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 overall. A combined 30-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins pitching staff has been a big surprise this year. Michael Pineda is pitching as well as anyone for the Twins right now. Pineda has a whopping eight straight games with a FIP of 3.83 or lower. He has a FIP of lower than 3 in seven of those eight starts. He has been consistently very good. 

Daniel Mengden doesn't miss many bats, but he does induce soft contact, and he has a very good defense behind him. The Twins offense has cooled off quite a bit of late.

Both bullpens are better than average. In the past 30 days, both of these bullpens rank in the top ten in baseball.

Additon is the umpire here, and he is a clear under umpire with his strikeout percentage and low walk percentage. 

The weather here isn't nearly as extreme as it has been in recent days. A gametime temperature of 79 degrees and wind blowing sideways doesn't help the offenses.

The under is 7-0 in the Twins last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 Sunday games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two. A 16-0 angle.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Red Sox offense is on fire right now. Boston is first in the majors in weighted on base average in the last 30 days. Boston is also first in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Red Sox put up 17 runs yesterday in a win over Baltimore. 

Boston will go up against Asher Wojciechowski who starts for the Orioles here. Nearly 50% of batted balls off him this year have been classified as hard hit. He is allowing more than 2 home runs per nine innings. He has been absolutely crushed in his day game appearances in his career, and I don't like his chances of slowing down Boston here.

Andrew Cashner starts for the Red Sox here against his old team. Cashner is allowing the most hard contact of his career this season. He doesn't get many swings and misses either.

The hot weather over the eastern part of the United States right now is extreme. A temperature of 98 degrees with winds blowing out at about 7 mph are expected for this one.

In 5 of the last 8 Red Sox games, one of the teams in the game has gotten to double digits. You couldn't get more favorable conditions for hitting than this weather.

The Orioles and Red Sox bullpens are both struggling of late, and they have been overused. 

The over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 between these two teams.

Take the over. 

*3 Star Play Over* The Pirates are 23-5-2 to the over in their last 30 home games. This offense has been on fire of late, and the pitching staff has been worse than expected.

Jordan Lyles has been the worst of the starting pitchers on this team of late. Lyles appears to still be injured. He is struggling badly with his control. Lyles is also giving up a lot of very hard hit balls in play.

Jake Arrieta is pitching injured. He isn't getting many swinging strikes at all, and he isn't likely to pitch deep into the game. The Phillies bullpen has the worst FIP in the majors in the last 30 days.

A temperature of 91 degrees and wind blowing out to left field at about 10 mph helps too.

Take the over. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Dodgers and Phillies game on Wednesday night ended around 1:45 am after a long rain delay turned it into a very long night for both teams. This is a really quick turnaround. 

There is no set rule that quick turnaround games are going to be low scoring by any means, but I lean under in these circumstances. Why? Many coaches will sit out key players from their lineups. Dave Roberts regularly does this on get away day games to start with, so I would expect one or two Dodgers regulars to be out of the lineup here. A get away afternoon game on a Thursday is an under lean, and in this case with the short turnaround I believe it makes the situation stronger.

Bill Miller is arguably the best under umpire in all of baseball. He is a strike caller who always has one of the highest called strike percentages and strikeout/walk ratios of any umpire in the majors.

Aaron Nola has allowed only in 35 and 2/3 innings pitched in his last five starts. Nola is a really streaky pitcher, and when he is on he can be lights out. The Dodgers lineup is excellent, but Nola has tremendous stuff. Nola has been working deep into the game which is helpful since we'd like to limit how much of the Phillies bullpen we see here.

Ross Stripling is an underrated pitcher who threw the ball really well in his last start. 

The under is 6-1-1 in Stripling's last 8 starts. 

Take the under.